Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Cenovus Energy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安。歡迎參加 Cenovus Energy 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。（操作員指令）

I would like to remind everyone that this conference is being recorded today.

我想提醒大家，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Patrick Read, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Read.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁派崔克‧里德先生。請繼續，里德先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning everyone and welcome to Cenovus's 2024 year end and fourth quarter results conference call. On the call this morning, our CEO, Jon McKenzie, will take you through our results. Then, we'll open the line for Jon and other members of the Cenovus management team to take your questions.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加 Cenovus 2024 年年終和第四季業績電話會議。在今天早上的電話會議上，我們的執行長 Jon McKenzie 將向您介紹我們的業績。然後，我們將為 Jon 和 Cenovus 管理團隊的其他成員開通熱線來回答您的問題。

Before getting started, I'll refer you to our advisories located at the end of today's news release. These describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures, and oil and gas terms referred to today. They also outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. Additional information is available on Cenovus's annual MD&A and our most recent AIF and Form 40F.

在開始之前，請先參閱今天新聞稿末尾的建議。這些描述了今天提及的前瞻性資訊、非公認會計準則指標以及石油和天然氣術語。他們也概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素和假設。有關更多信息，請參閱 Cenovus 的年度 MD&A 以及我們最新的 AIF 和 40F 表。

And as a reminder, all figures we referenced today on the call will be in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. You can view our results@cenovus.com. For the question-and-answer portion of the call, please keep to one question with a maximum of one follow-up.

提醒一下，除非另有說明，我們今天在電話會議上引用的所有數字均以加幣為單位。您可以在@cenovus.com 查看我們的結果。對於通話的問答部分，請限制只提出一個問題，最多進行一次後續跟進。

You're welcome to rejoin the queue for any other follow-up questions you may have. We also ask that you hold off on any detailed modeling questions. You can follow up on those directly with our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您有任何其他後續問題，歡迎您重新加入隊列。我們也要求您不要問任何詳細的建模問題。通話結束後，您可以直接與我們的投資者關係團隊跟進這些問題。

I will now turn the call over to Jon. Jon, please go ahead.

現在我將電話轉給喬恩。喬恩，請繼續。

Great. Thank you, Patrick and good morning everyone. I want to start by highlighting our 2024 safety performance which as always remains core to our success and fundamental to everything we do. In 2024, Cenovus achieved its best-ever process safety performance. We reduced the number of Tier 1 and Tier 2 process safety events by 44% compared to 2023.

偉大的。謝謝你，派崔克，大家早安。首先，我想強調我們 2024 年的安全績效，這始終是我們成功的核心，也是我們所做的一切的基礎。2024年，Cenovus 實現了有史以來最好的製程安全績效。與 2023 年相比，我們將一級和二級製程安全事件的數量減少了 44%。

This world-class result was achieved in a year, in which many sites operated alongside brownfield growth projects and we successfully executed four major turnarounds at Christina Lake, the Lloyd Upgrader, Lima Refinery and Rainbow Lake.

這項世界級的成果是在一年內取得的，在這一年中，許多站點與棕地增長項目同時運營，我們成功地在克里斯蒂娜湖、勞埃德昇級廠、利馬煉油廠和彩虹湖實施了四次重大改造。

On top of this, we decreased the number of lost time injuries by 23% compared to 2023. These are incredible achievements, and the entire company is very proud of our operating teams who delivered these fantastic results.

除此之外，與 2023 年相比，我們因工傷損失的數量減少了 23%。這些都是令人難以置信的成就，整個公司都為我們的營運團隊所取得的出色成績感到非常自豪。

2024 was a very important year for the company and we achieved many significant operational and financial milestones. In the Upstream, production grew by about 2.5% from 790,000 boe a day to 797,000 - sorry, 779,000 boe a day in 2023 to 797,000 boe per day in 2024.

2024 年對公司來說是非常重要的一年，我們實現了許多重要的營運和財務里程碑。在上游，產量增加了約 2.5%，從每天 790,000 桶油當量增長到 797,000 桶油當量——對不起，從 2023 年的每天 779,000 桶油當量增長到 2024 年的每天 797,000 桶油當量。

Included in this was a best-ever year for Oil Sands segment where production increased by about 3% year-over-year to 610,700 boe per day. This growth was fueled by production increases at Sunrise in our conventional heavy oil business as well as new annual production records at Foster Creek and Lloydminster thermal assets.

其中，油砂部門的產量創下了歷史新高，年增約 3%，達到每天 61 萬桶油當量。這一成長主要得益於我們 Sunrise 常規重油業務的產量增加，以及 Foster Creek 和 Lloydminster 熱能資產創下的年度產量新紀錄。

Total offshore production increased to about 67,000 boe per day despite having the SeaRose off-station for all of 2024 as it underwent its life extension work. This included around 59,000 boe per day from our Asia Pacific business which continues to operate with a high level of predictability, generating approximately 1 billion of free funds flow for the fourth year in a row.

儘管 SeaRose 將在 2024 年全年處於離站狀態並進行延壽工作，但海上總產量仍增至約 67,000 桶油當量/天。其中包括來自亞太地區業務的約 59,000 桶油當量/天，該業務繼續以高度可預測的方式運營，連續第四年產生約 10 億美元的自由資金流。

In the third quarter of 2024, the company successfully completed a major turnaround at Christina Lake and returned the asset to production well ahead of schedule. Now this was also the first full year of operating our downstream assets after restarting the Toledo and Superior refineries in 2023. Our total crude throughput increased by 87,000 barrels per day year-over-year to 647,000 barrels per day in 2027.

2024 年第三季度，該公司成功完成了克里斯蒂娜湖的重大改造，並提前恢復了生產。這也是我們 2023 年重啟托萊多煉油廠和蘇必利爾煉油廠後下游資產營運的第一個完整年。到 2027 年，我們的原油總吞吐量將年增 87,000 桶/天，達到 647,000 桶/天。

In our US Refining segment, throughput increased by nearly 100,000 barrels per day to 556,000 barrels per day, which translates into full-year utilization rate of about 91%.

在我們的美國煉油部門，產量增加了近10萬桶/天，達到55.6萬桶/天，這意味著全年利用率約為91%。

As a result, per-unit operating costs in the US Refining, excluding turnarounds decreased by 18% relative to 2023. We also completed major turnarounds in 2024 at both the Lloyd Upgrader and the Lima Refinery. Our assets have performed very well coming out of the turnarounds and we expect to see continued improved operating performance in 2025.

因此，不包括檢修在內的美國煉油廠每單位營運成本相對於 2023 年下降了 18%。我們也於 2024 年對 Lloyd 升級裝置和利馬煉油廠進行了重大檢修。我們的資產在扭虧為盈後表現非常出色，我們預計 2025 年營運表現將持續改善。

Corporately, we generated over CAD8 billion of adjusted funds flow in 2024 and we returned about CAD3.2 billion to shareholders through dividends, share repurchases, and the redemption of preferred shares. Importantly, we also achieved our CAD4 billion net debt target in 2024. This was a significant milestone for Cenovus and, as a result, we are now paying out 100% of our excess free funds flow.

在公司層面，我們在 2024 年創造了超過 80 億加元的調整後資金流，並透過股息、股票回購和優先股贖迴向股東返還了約 32 億加元。重要的是，我們也實現了 2024 年 40 億加元淨債務的目標。這對 Cenovus 來說是一個重要的里程碑，因此，我們現在正在支付 100％ 的超額自由資金流。

So now turning to the fourth quarter results. In the quarter, we generated CAD2.3 billion of operating margin, approximately CAD1.6 billion of adjusted funds flow and about CAD125 million of free funds flow. Notably, we returned over CAD700 million to shareholders in the quarter through dividends, share buybacks, and the redemption of our Series 3 preferred shares.

現在來談談第四季的業績。本季度，我們創造了23億加元的營業利潤、約16億加元的調整後資金流和約1.25億加元的自由資金流。值得注意的是，本季我們透過股息、股票回購和贖回 3 系列優先股向股東返還了超過 7 億加元。

Our net debt at the end of the year was CAD4.6 billion, an increase of about CAD420 million from the previous quarter, reflecting a weakened Canadian dollar, a temporary build in inventory of around 22,000 barrels a day related to the timing of sales, along with the redemption of our Series 3 preferred shares. We'll continue to steward towards our net debt target of CAD4 billion while paying out excess cash flow generated to our shareholders.

我們年底的淨負債為 46 億加元，較上一季增加約 4.2 億加元，反映了加幣走弱、與銷售時機相關的庫存暫時增加約 22,000 桶/天，以及我們的 3 系列優先股的贖回。我們將繼續努力實現 40 億加元的淨債務目標，同時向股東支付產生的超額現金流。

In the Upstream, our production was over 816,000 boe per day and was an increase of 6% quarter-over-quarter and up 1% relative to the fourth quarter of 2023. This included record quarterly production from our Oil Sands segment of 628 - or 629,000 boe per day. Oil Sands operating margin, over CAD2.3 billion in the fourth quarter was down slightly from about CAD2.5 billion in the prior quarter, partly a result of lower commodity pricing as well as a difference between production and sales.

在上游，我們的日產量超過 816,000 桶油當量，季增 6%，季增 2023 年第四季成長 1%。其中包括我們油砂部門創紀錄的季度產量 628 或 629,000 桶油當量/天。油砂業務第四季的營業利潤率超過 23 億加元，較上一季的約 25 億加元略有下降，部分原因是大宗商品價格下跌以及產銷差異。

Offshore production in the fourth quarter was about 70,000 boe per day, a 6% increase from the prior quarter. And in Asia Pacific, volumes from Indonesia were up 23%, driven by increased production from our MAC field.

第四季海上產量約為每天 7 萬桶油當量，較上一季成長 6%。在亞太地區，由於我們MAC油田產量增加，來自印尼的產量增加了23％。

Turning to the Downstream. In the fourth quarter, our weighted average crack spread, net of RINs averaged $8.20 per barrel, a decline of 45% compared to the third quarter. In addition, the price differential for heavy oil, which makes up a significant portion of the volumes we process, has narrowed with the startup of the TMX pipeline earlier this year.

轉向下游。第四季度，我們的加權平均裂解價差（扣除 RIN 後）平均為每桶 8.20 美元，較第三季下降 45%。此外，隨著今年稍早 TMX 管道的啟動，占我們加工量很大一部分的重油價格差異已經縮小。

As a result, our Downstream operating margin in the fourth quarter was a shortfall of CAD396 million, which includes an inventory timing loss of CAD45 million, about CAD132 million of turnaround costs and a shortfall of CAD95 million from our non-operated refining assets.

因此，我們第四季的下游營業利潤率缺口為 3.96 億加元，其中包括 4,500 萬加元的庫存時間損失，約 1.32 億加元的周轉成本，以及來自非營運煉油資產的 9,500 萬加元缺口。

We're already seeing some signs of improvements in refined product prices this year and anticipate returning to more normalized seasonal crack spreads heading into the spring. Our focus in the Downstream continues to be an improving what is in our control and we are making real progress with a real sense of urgency.

我們已經看到今年成品油價格出現一些改善的跡象，預計到春季季節性裂解價差將恢復到更正常的狀態。我們對下游的關注重點仍然是改善我們能控制的事情，我們正以真正的緊迫感取得真正的進展。

In US Refining, fourth quarter throughput was 562,000 barrels per day which represents utilization rate of 92%. This was an increase of 3% quarter-over-quarter and 17% relative to the fourth quarter in 2023. Our operating expenses in US Refining excluding turnaround costs were CAD10.89 per barrel in the fourth quarter. This improved 18% quarter-over-quarter and about 15% relative to the fourth quarter of 2023.

在美國煉油領域，第四季的產量為每天 562,000 桶，利用率為 92%。這比上一季成長了 3%，比 2023 年第四季成長了 17%。我們第四季在美國煉油業務的營運費用（不包括週轉成本）為每桶 10.89 加幣。與上一季相比，這一數字提高了 18%，與 2023 年第四季相比，這一數字提高了約 15%。

Driving costs out of the business while improving our reliability and margin capture is a key focus for us and we are seeing the benefits of the work done to date and we'll see more in 2025 as we continue to drive towards more profitable operations and competitive US Refining business.

在提高可靠性和利潤率的同時降低業務成本是我們的重點，我們看到了迄今為止所做工作的成果，並且隨著我們繼續努力實現更有利可圖的運營和更具競爭力的美國煉油業務，我們將在 2025 年看到更多成果。

Canadian Refining throughput was 104,000 barrels per day which represents a utilization rate of about 97%. This was an increase of 5% quarter-over-quarter and 4% relative to the fourth quarter in the prior year. Operating expenses of $12.26% - sorry, $12.26 per barrel excluding turnarounds improved by about 13% from 2023. Since completing the upgrader turnaround in early Q3, both the upgrader and the refinery have run at or near full rates.

加拿大煉油廠的產量為每天 104,000 桶，利用率約為 97%。這比上一季增長了 5%，比去年同期增長了 4%。營運費用為 12.26% - 抱歉，不包括週轉費用，每桶 12.26 美元比 2023 年改善了約 13%。自第三季初完成升級裝置檢修以來，升級裝置和煉油廠均以滿載或接近滿載運轉。

With the next major turnaround plan for 2028, we expect to see an extended period of sustained strong operational performance from our Canadian Refining business. In the fourth quarter, we also achieved some important milestones on our major projects.

隨著 2028 年下一個重大轉型計畫的實施，我們預計加拿大煉油業務將在較長時間內持續強勁的營運表現。第四季度，我們在重大專案上也取得了一些重要的里程碑。

We reached mechanical completion of the Narrows Lake pipeline and now have the infrastructure in place to access some of the highest-quality resource in our portfolio. We'll begin steaming the Narrows Lake pads in the spring and anticipate first production around mid-year.

我們已完成納羅斯湖管道的機械鋪設，現在已具備獲取我們投資組合中一些最優質資源的基礎設施。我們將在春季開始對納羅斯湖的墊層進行蒸汽作業，預計將在年中左右實現首次生產。

On the West White Rose project, we reached mechanical completion on both the concrete gravity-based structure as well as the top sides and finished the life extension work on the SeaRose FPCO. The FPSO will resume producing from the White Rose field by the end of this month.

在 West White Rose 專案中，我們完成了混凝土重力結構和頂部側面的機械完工，並完成了 SeaRose FPCO 的壽命延長工作。該浮式生產儲油船 (FPSO) 將在本月底恢復白玫瑰油田的生產。

The West White Rose project is now 88% complete and we're well on our way to producing first oil in 2026. We also made significant progress on the Foster Creek optimization project which is now 64% complete and we expect first oil in early 2026 and to fully ramp up production in 2027.

West White Rose 專案目前已完成 88%，我們預計在 2026 年產出第一批石油。我們也在 Foster Creek 優化項目上取得了重大進展，該項目目前已完成 64%，我們預計第一批石油將於 2026 年初產出，並於 2027 年全面達到產量。

At Sunrise, we expect to see higher production starting in late 2025 with volumes continuing to increase through 2027. With these milestones achieved in 2024, all of our growth projects are progressing well and remain on budget and on schedule.

在 Sunrise，我們預計從 2025 年底開始產量會更高，並且到 2027 年產量將持續增加。隨著 2024 年實現這些里程碑，我們所有的成長項目都進展順利，並且符合預算和計畫。

I'd now like to touch on our outlook for 2025. In December of 2024, we outlined a budget for this year of CAD4.6 to CAD5 billion of capital investment. This includes about CAD3.2 billion of sustaining capital and CAD1.4 to CAD1.8 billion of growth capital. This marks the final year of a three-year growth investment cycle which we began in 2023.

現在我想談談我們對 2025 年的展望。2024 年 12 月，我們概述了今年的資本投資預算為 46 億至 50 億加元。其中包括約32億加元的維持資本和14億至18億加元的成長資本。這標誌著我們於 2023 年開始的三年成長投資週期的最後一年。

At that time, we embarked on several highly profitable, multi-year projects, which we identified as having the potential to be significant drivers of the company's free funds flow growth at a very efficient capital cost. Two years later, with a lot of work to deliver these projects now behind us, we have clear visibility bringing on about 150,000 boe per day by 2028 which will deliver growth in free funds flow for the years to come.

當時，我們啟動了幾個高利潤的多年期項目，我們認為這些項目有可能以非常有效的資本成本成為公司自由資金流成長的重要推動力。兩年後，我們完成了大量專案交付工作，我們清楚地看到，到 2028 年，我們的日產量將達到約 15 萬桶油當量，這將在未來幾年帶來自由資金流的成長。

In 2025, we'll start to see the impact of these growth plans with higher production from the startup of Narrows Lake and continued development of Sunrise in conventional heavy oil. Now this is reflected in our production guidance range of 108,000 to 145,000 boe per day, representing approximately 3% growth relative to 2024.

到 2025 年，我們將開始看到這些成長計畫的影響，隨著 Narrows Lake 計畫的啟動和 Sunrise 計畫在常規重油領域的持續開發，產量將有所提高。這反映在我們的日產量指導範圍 108,000 至 145,000 桶油當量，相對於 2024 年增長約 3%。

In the Downstream, our total crude throughput guidance of 650,000 to 685,000 barrels per day also represents a 3% increase from 2024 levels. As these volumes increase, we are driving costs down and we are guiding to a year-over-year reduction in unit operating costs excluding turnarounds of 15% and 5% for the Canadian, US Refining business respectively.

在下游領域，我們預計原油總吞吐量為 65 萬至 68.5 萬桶/天，較 2024 年的水準成長 3%。隨著產量的增加，我們正在降低成本，我們預計加拿大和美國煉油業務的單位營運成本（不包括週轉）將比去年同期分別下降 15% 和 5%。

2025 is a much lighter year for turnaround maintenance versus 2024. We have two major turnarounds planned in 2025 at Foster Creek and the Toledo Refinery which will take place in the second quarter alongside smaller planned turnaround activities or maintenance activities at Christina Lake and Sunrise.

與 2024 年相比，2025 年的檢修維護工作量要小得多。我們計劃於 2025 年在第二季度對 Foster Creek 和 Toledo 煉油廠進行兩次重大檢修，與此同時，還將在 Christina Lake 和 Sunrise 進行較小規模的計劃檢修活動或維護活動。

With the conclusion of the turnarounds in the first half of the year and the growth capital spent declining later in the year, we expect to see both production and free funds flow increasing in the second half of 2025.

隨著上半年轉型結束以及下半年成長資本支出下降，我們預計 2025 年下半年產量和自由資金流都將增加。

Now in closing, we ended 2024 on a strong note operationally with record production from our Oil Sands assets and improving Downstream operational performance. We expect to build on this momentum through 2025 and deliver on the guidance we released in December while continuing to execute our major growth projects. With our disciplined capital budget low-cost structure, we are on a clear path to grow free funds flow and provide significant returns to shareholders.

最後，我們以強勁的營運表現結束了 2024 年，我們的油砂資產產量創下了歷史新高，下游營運表現也不斷改善。我們預計將在 2025 年保持這一勢頭並兌現我們 12 月發布的指引，同時繼續執行我們的主要成長項目。憑藉我們嚴謹的資本預算低成本結構，我們能夠明確地增加自由資金流並為股東提供可觀的回報。

Now with that, we're happy to take your questions.

現在，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Menno Hulshof from TD Securities.

道明證券 (TD Securities) 的 Menno Hulshof。

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Good morning, Jon. I'll start with a question on refinery - US Refinery market capture. The number for Q4 was 45%. That was marginally higher than in Q3. But if we were to assume that all refineries are running at north of, let's say, 90% to 95% utilization and that the product slate is fully optimized, where could we expect US market capture to settle out?

謝謝，大家早安。早安，喬恩。我首先要問一個有關煉油廠的問題──美國煉油廠的市場佔領。第四季的數字為 45%。這比第三季略高。但如果我們假設所有煉油廠的利用率都達到 90% 至 95% 以上，且產品結構得到充分優化，那麼我們能預期美國的市佔率會穩定在什麼水平嗎？

Yes, I would think in that kind of a normalized environment, Menno, we should be in the 70% plus range. If you look at Q4, we were coming out of turnaround in Lima at a time of high crack. And then I think the other impacts on that for the quarter were around the differential narrowing as well as the lower overall crack. But this is something that you'll see improve from us in time. But for today's world, probably 70%, 75% is probably the right number you should be using.

是的，我認為在那種正常化的環境中，Menno，我們應該在 70% 以上的範圍內。如果你看一下第四季度，我們會發現，在利馬經濟出現好轉之際，裂縫正嚴重。然後我認為本季的其他影響是差異縮小以及整體裂解減少。但隨著時間的推移，您會看到我們在這方面取得進步。但對於當今世界來說，70%、75% 可能是您應該使用的正確數字。

Perfect. So thanks for that. And then the second question is on return of capital, the stock is, as of this morning, in the CAD21 range. I think everybody on this call would agree that there's a pretty significant discount on the valuation. Is there any way of materially accelerating buybacks over the near term? And how are you weighing that against pref redemptions? On the surface, it feels like buybacks is the higher return opportunity. But any thoughts there would be helpful.

完美的。非常感謝。第二個問題是關於資本回報，截至今天早上，該股票處於 CAD21 範圍內。我認為參加此次電話會議的每個人都會同意這一估值有相當大的折扣。有什麼方法可以在短期內大幅加速回購？您如何衡量這與優先股贖回之間的關係？從表面上看，回購似乎是更高的回報機會。但任何想法都會有幫助。

Good morning, Menno. It's Kam. It's a great question. I think first off where I'd start is our framework as a whole has not changed. So, we talked about last year moving to 100% excess free cash flow going back to shareholders.

早上好，門諾。是 Kam。這是一個很好的問題。我認為首先要說的是，我們的整個框架沒有改變。所以，我們去年談到了將 100% 的超額自由現金流回饋給股東。

Clearly, you've pointed out in the fourth quarter here, we did make a decision to take out the - one of the series of prefs, CAD250 million. And I'd say that's part of our strategy kind of long term, looking at our capital structure overall.

顯然，您已經指出，在第四季度，我們確實決定取出一系列優先股中的一項，價值 2.5 億加元。我想說，從整體來看，這是我們長期策略的一部分。

So we'll continue to assess the future prefs as to whether that's something we'll look at. But no doubt you're correct. I think we see a really good opportunity in buybacks and I would say even through the fourth quarter, despite having relatively low excess refunds flow, we did over-allocate to shareholder returns, including the prefs, and continue to buy back stock. And I think where there's opportunity, we'll keep doing that.

因此，我們將繼續評估未來的偏好，以確定這是否是我們值得考慮的事情。但毫無疑問你是對的。我認為我們在回購中看到了一個非常好的機會，我想說，即使到了第四季度，儘管超額退款流相對較低，但我們確實為股東回報（包括優先股）進行了超額分配，並繼續回購股票。我認為只要有機會，我們就會繼續這樣做。

But I think what I would highlight is, number one is, we want to make sure that we do not lean on the balance sheet in any material form to do that. I think we really want to stick to the discipline that we've created, where we want to stay as close to CAD4 billion as possible.

但我想強調的是，首先，我們要確保我們不會依賴任何物質形式的資產負債表來做到這一點。我認為我們確實希望堅持我們已經制定的紀律，我們希望盡可能接近 40 億加元。

And where there's opportunity, we'll continue to buy back stock as aggressively as we can. And I would agree with you, we see the same opportunity you do in the attractiveness of the shares where they're trading today.

只要有機會，我們就會繼續盡可能積極地回購股票。我同意你的觀點，我們從目前交易的股票的吸引力中看到了與你相同的機會。

Thanks, Kam. I'll turn it back.

謝謝，Kam。我會把它轉回去。

Great. Thanks, Menno.

偉大的。謝謝，門諾。

Dennis Fong from CIBC World Market.

加拿大帝國商業銀行全球市場部的 Dennis Fong。

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Good morning. I would say maybe the first one, if you may. I'd like to go back to the US Downstream. It seems like you are making some progress in terms of aggregate operations. Obviously, there's a refinery startup kind of through this quarter. I was hoping you could maybe outline some of the projects that you have ongoing or some of the equipment you might either be changing, replacing, or fixing some of your upcoming turnarounds that maybe gives you a little bit more confidence around continuously maintaining a higher level of utilization.

大家早安，感謝您回答我的問題。早安.如果可以的話，我想說也許是第一個。我想回到美國下游。看起來您在聚合操作方面取得了一些進展。顯然，本季將會有一家煉油廠投入營運。我希望您能概述您正在進行的一些項目，或者您可能正在更換、替換或修復的一些即將進行的周轉的設備，這也許可以讓您對持續保持更高的利用率更有信心。

Dennis, we're really attacking this on a number of fronts, and you highlight the reliability and the mechanical availability of the assets that we've got. But we're also tackling this in terms of how we place our products, how we source our crude, and also how we manage our unit operating costs. All those things are really tied together.

丹尼斯，我們確實在多個方面攻克這一難題，你強調了我們現有資產的可靠性和機械可用性。但我們也在從如何定位我們的產品、如何採購原油以及如何管理我們的單位營運成本等方面來解決這個問題。所有這些事情實際上都是連結在一起的。

But if I were going to kind of point to some big events that have really improved our performance in Q4, I would just highlight some of the things that we worked on in 2024 and I'll give you a couple examples, is, we did a lot of work at the Lloydminster Upgrader on our electricity reliability and making sure that we have reliable power coming into that plant.

但如果我要指出一些真正改善我們第四季度業績的大事件，我只會強調我們在 2024 年開展的一些工作，我會給你舉幾個例子，比如，我們在洛伊德明斯特升級工廠做了很多工作，以提高我們的電力可靠性，並確保有可靠的電力進入該工廠。

We did a lot of work on the Coker units during that turnaround, and we're seeing the results of that. We had a situation we were seeing cracking around the cones of the coke drums due to excess vibration there, and we were able to deal with that.

我們對焦化裝置進行了大量改造，並看到了成效。我們遇到過一種情況，由於過度振動，焦炭塔錐體周圍出現裂縫，我們能夠解決這個問題。

As you get into the US assets, there's a lot of work going on there in terms of mechanical availability and getting these assets into a condition where they compete with the independent refiners. We did a lot of work on the cat cracker during the Lima turnaround as well as the coking units and the Isom units. And those are high-value units that in the past have been less than or had a lower reliability than we would have liked. But we're seeing good reliability of those units coming out of the turnaround.

當你進入美國資產時，你會發現在機械可用性方面有很多工作要做，並使這些資產處於與獨立煉油商競爭的狀態。在利馬檢修期間，我們對催化裂解裝置以及焦化裝置和 Isom 裝置進行了大量的工作。這些都是高價值單位，過去的可靠性低於我們的預期。但我們看到這些單位在轉型過程中具有良好的可靠性。

As we go into the Toledo turnaround in the spring, some of the things that we are going to be doing a fair amount of work on would include the alky unit, the reformer, one of the crude units and one of the coker sets as well.

當我們在春季進入托萊多修期時，我們將要進行大量工作，包括烷基裝置、重整裝置、其中一個原油裝置以及一個焦化裝置。

So, we just kind of continue to knock these things off both inside and outside the turnaround schedule. And as we invest in these assets and get our reliability up to a place where we're happier with it, we start to see the results in unit cost, market capture, and throughput.

所以，我們只是繼續在周轉計畫內外完成這些事情。隨著我們對這些資產進行投資，並將我們的可靠性提升到我們滿意的水平，我們開始看到單位成本、市場佔有率和產量方面的結果。

Fantastic. Really appreciate that color there, Jon. My next question, actually shifting focus over to West White Rose, again, looks like you've made a fair amount of progress with respect to the top side and the gravity structure. Can you talk towards your drilling plans over the next kind of 12 to 18 months for the project as well as any kind of cost controls you might have for that segment of this project?

極好的。真的很欣賞那裡的色彩，喬恩。我的下一個問題是，實際上將焦點轉移到西白玫瑰上，再次看起來你們在頂部和重力結構方面已經取得了相當大的進展。您能否談談未來 12 到 18 個月的鑽探計劃，以及對該專案該部分可能採取的任何成本控制措施？

Yes, so the drilling is going to start right around Q4 of next year. So before we get to drilling, we've actually got to float out the top sides and mate - float at the top sides and the gravity-based structure. We've got to mate the two together, then we'll be into some commissioning work and hook up with those assets. And following that, the drilling will start.

是的，鑽探將在明年第四季左右開始。因此，在開始鑽孔之前，我們實際上必須將頂部浮出水面並將其與頂部浮出水面以及基於重力的結構配對。我們必須將兩者結合在一起，然後我們才會進行一些調試工作並與這些資產掛鉤。隨後，鑽探將開始。

Drilling in the fourth quarter is going to result in first production, I think in the mid-first half of 2026. We'll drill about seven wells to start with. That would include your producers, your gas injectors, and the like. But all of this is designed to get us to first oil in sort of the early part of 2026.

我認為，第四季的鑽探將會帶來首次生產，時間是在 2026 年上半年中期。首先我們將鑽大約七口井。其中包括你的生產者、你的氣體注入者等等。但這一切都是為了讓我們在 2026 年初獲得第一批石油。

Great. I appreciate that color as well. I'll turn it back.

偉大的。我也欣賞那個顏色。我會把它轉回去。

Greg Pardy from RBC Capital Markets, Philippines.

來自菲律賓 RBC 資本市場的 Greg Pardy。

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the detailed rundown, Jon. You've got lots of capacity on Trans Mountain. I'm just curious as to how you're sort of thinking about marketing barrels, what you've seen in terms of appetite in Asia, and then just given tariff threats and so on, whether you're seeking to move more barrels into Asia or whether it's pretty much business as usual.

是的，謝謝。早安.謝謝你的詳細介紹，喬恩。跨山輸油管 (Trans Mountain) 擁有很大的容量。我只是好奇，您對於石油行銷有何看法，您看到亞洲對石油的需求如何，考慮到關稅威脅等，您是否想將更多的石油運往亞洲，還是一切照舊。

Sure, Greg. I've got Jeff with me, actually. I'll let him answer that question.

當然，格雷格。事實上，傑夫和我在一起。我將讓他回答這個問題。

Hi, Greg. Geoff Murray. Great question. There's what we've seen and then what we think is going to occur should tariffs come to pass. What we've seen is Trans Mountain runs at capacity for contract. That makes sense given what's committed. We've seen, as we've said before, robust demand at the dock. Different grades move in different times in response to market. And we've seen broadly over time about a 50-50 split of deliveries to Asia and California.

你好，格雷格。傑夫·默里。好問題。這就是我們所看到的情況，也是我們認為一旦關稅生效會發生什麼情況。我們看到的是，Trans Mountain 輸油管已按合約規定的滿載運作。考慮到所承諾的內容，這是有道理的。正如我們之前所說，我們已經看到碼頭的需求強勁。不同等級會根據市場變化而在不同時間變動。隨著時間的推移，我們大致看到亞洲和加州的交付量各佔一半。

So without tariffs, that continues unabated. Should tariffs show up, that would obviously look to an economic reason for rebalancing. We expect that would obviously drive as much volume as possible through Trans Mountain, perhaps beyond the contracted capacity, provided that volume can find a home out the dock and then it would preferentially head globally rather than to California. We've seen significant inbound conversations around that.

因此，即使沒有關稅，這種情況仍會持續下去。如果出現關稅，這顯然會成為重新平衡的經濟原因。我們預計，這顯然將推動盡可能多的貨物透過 Trans Mountain 運輸，甚至可能超出合約容量，前提是這些貨物能夠在碼頭找到歸宿，然後優先運往全球，而不是加州。我們已看到有關此問題的大量來訪對話。

We believe that demand at the dock will be robust for folks that want to come and pick it up there and take it and move it to the best global location. So, predicting the future a little bit, should tariffs come to pass, I think we would see increased flow in that direction and a rebalancing away from the United States and the balance to head globally.

我們相信，對於那些想要來碼頭裝卸貨物並將其運送到全球最佳地點的人來說，碼頭的需求將會很強勁。因此，對未來進行一些預測，如果關稅得以實施，我認為我們將看到朝這個方向的流動增加，以及從美國轉向全球的平衡。

Okay, you clearly thought through this very carefully, so maybe just to stay with Asia for a minute, Indonesian gas is continuing to climb. China continues to play a really strong role. How are you thinking about the role then that Asian gas and just Asia in general plays in the portfolio? Because it's obviously very different than being an onshore producer in the Oil Sands.

好的，你顯然非常仔細地考慮過這個問題，所以也許我們只討論亞洲，印尼的天然氣價格正在持續上漲。中國繼續發揮真正強大的作用。那麼您如何看待亞洲天然氣以及亞洲整體在投資組合中扮演的角色？因為這顯然與油砂領域的陸上生產商有很大不同。

Yes, no you're right. And one of the things we really like about that Asian business, Greg, is it's a really high-margin business. And as you know, when you have fixed realizations, it's something you can count on quarter-on-quarter.

是的，不，你是對的。格雷格，我們真正喜歡那個亞洲業務的一點是，它的利潤率真的很高。如你所知，當你有固定的實現時，你可以逐季度地依靠它。

So our strategy with Asia has really been to minimize the investment to this point and to continue to work with CNOOC to elongate contracts and make sure that the cash flow that we generate from this business just continues to come in the door.

因此，我們在亞洲的策略實際上是盡量減少目前的投資，並繼續與中海油合作延長合同，並確保我們從這項業務中產生的現金流源源不斷。

So I don't think too much has changed with regard to our thinking around Asia. Most of what we do is in that Block 29/26 range, as well as in the Madura Strait in Indonesia. But it's been a tremendous asset for us through time.

因此我認為我們對亞洲的看法沒有太大改變。我們的大部分工作是在29/26區塊範圍內，以及印尼的馬都拉海峽。但一直以來它都是我們的寶貴財富。

We see really strong gas demand in Asia, which buffets those assets and then we've got a couple priorities in terms of, I mentioned making sure that the contract extensions come through in 2026, '27 as it relates to some of the gas contracts. But it really has been a tremendous asset for us through the years when we see that continuing into the future.

我們看到亞洲對天然氣的需求非常強勁，這將衝擊這些資產，然後我們有幾個優先事項，我提到確保合約延長在 2026 年、2027 年完成，因為這與一些天然氣合約有關。但當我們看到這種情況持續下去時，這些年來這對我們來說確實是一筆巨大的財富。

Terrific. Thanks for that.

了不起。謝謝。

Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Neil Mehta。

Yes, thanks. Thanks for all the detailed information. Just sticking with downstream. I think some of the challenges certainly has been around operations capture, some of this been kind of market conditions with the WC has being tight and the mid-con being soft. And so just your perspective relative to the Analyst Day a year ago, has your medium-term view of the mid-con evolved in any way and how much of the softness that we've seen in this market has been more seasonal and temporary?

是的，謝謝。感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。只需堅持下游即可。我認為其中的一些挑戰肯定是圍繞著營運獲取而來的，其中一些是市場條件，即中產階級人口密集、中產階級疲軟。那麼，相對於一年前分析師日而言，您對中期市場的看法是否有所變化，我們在這個市場看到的疲軟在多大程度上是季節性的和暫時的？

I don't think anything's changed in terms of how we see the mid-con market in terms of its competitive advantages. We always see the mid-con as being able to get preferenced feedstock in terms of cheaper Canadian oil. We believe as well that it's going to have cheap natural gas. And we actually see the market as being reasonably robust.

我認為，就我們對中端市場競爭優勢的看法而言，沒有任何改變。我們始終認為中產階級能夠以更便宜的加拿大石油獲得優先原料。我們也相信它將擁有廉價的天然氣。我們實際上看到市場相當強勁。

But what I think we are working on (technical difficulty) beyond the obvious in terms of reliability and operations is moving products farther afield and trying to access PADD 1 in Canada with some of our products to achieve higher margins.

但我認為，除了可靠性和營運方面顯而易見的問題之外，我們正在努力解決的技術難題是將產品推向更遠的地方，並嘗試使用我們的一些產品在加拿大訪問 PADD 1，以實現更高的利潤。

So, we do see the additional tightness that you get in PADD 2. Some of that is seasonal. I think some of that represents additional product that wants to access that market. But we still believe long term and even medium term, this is going to be a preference to refining jurisdiction and we'll solve for those things through time.

因此，我們確實看到了 PADD 2 中的額外緊密性。其中一些是季節性的。我認為其中一些代表想要進入該市場的額外產品。但我們仍然相信，從長期甚至中期來看，這將是完善管轄權的優先選擇，我們會隨著時間的推移解決這些問題。

And we think about this in terms of the long term as you know Neil, we're moving somewhere around 200,000 barrels a day of heavy oil into that region today just for our refineries and our assets. And that's a - we think a good long-term mousetrap in terms of getting our value for the products there versus selling heavy oil at harder stick. You still there, Neil? And operator, you are live.

我們從長遠角度考慮這個問題，正如你所知，尼爾，我們今天每天向該地區運送大約 20 萬桶重油，僅用於我們的煉油廠和資產。我們認為，從為那裡的產品獲取價值方面來看，這是一個很好的長期陷阱，而不是以更嚴格的標準出售重油。你還在那裡嗎，尼爾？接線員，您現在在線。

Thank you. I'll transfer you back now. Thank you. Thank you for waiting. We appreciate your patience. The Cenovus Energy fourth quarter and full year 2024 results conference call will now resume. Please go ahead.

謝謝。我現在就把您轉回去。謝謝。感謝您的等待。感謝您的耐心。 Cenovus Energy 第四季和 2024 年全年業績電話會議現已恢復。請繼續。

Neil, are you there?

尼爾，你在那裡嗎？

All right. Jon, can you hear me?

好的。喬恩，你聽得到我的聲音嗎？

I can hear you, Neil. Can you hear me?

我聽得到你的聲音，尼爾。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, I can. I didn't know if you want to round out your points on the mid-con, I think you got through most of them.

是的，我可以。我不知道您是否想完善中間論點，我認為您已經闡述了大部分觀點。

Yes. I don't know what happened there. I apologize to be a bit of a technical issue, but all I was saying, Neil, is I think that long term we still think that this is going to be a preferenced area for refining. And it's part of our strategic plan to get oil out of Hardisty and into better net back for the company longer term. So, we have seen some challenges on getting products out of PADD 2 and into higher realization jurisdictions. And that's kind of an industry issue. But that's something I think will resolve through time.

是的。我不知道那裡發生了什麼事。很抱歉講了點技術問題，但尼爾，我要說的是，從長遠來看，我們仍然認為這將是煉油的首選領域。這是我們策略計畫的一部分，旨在讓哈迪斯蒂的石油開採出來，為公司帶來更長期的淨回報。因此，我們看到了將產品從 PADD 2 中解放出來並帶入更高實現管轄範圍內的一些挑戰。這是一個行業問題。但我認為這個問題會隨著時間而解決。

Thanks, Jon. I think in our investor conversations one of the challenges around the story has been '24, '25 are just heavy years of capital, close to CAD5 billion. But there's a clear line of sight to that rolling in '26, '27, '28. And the fear of course is when you see that backwardation in capital investment, does that get plugged with more growth capital and then are you in a perpetual spend cycle? So how committed are you to get to this free cash flow harvest and get into the other side of the spend?

謝謝，喬恩。我認為，在我們與投資者的對話中，這個故事面臨的挑戰之一是，24、25 年是資本密集的年份，接近 50 億加元。但 26、27、28 年這一趨勢顯然將會持續下去。當然，令人擔心的是，當您看到資本投資出現逆價差時，是否會用更多的成長資本來填補，然後您是否會陷入永無止境的支出週期？那麼您對於獲得這種自由現金流收穫以及支出的另一面有多大決心呢？

What I would say, Neil, is as we were in a world in 2023 where we really hadn't invested in much growth in this portfolio probably since 2015, and then acquiring [indiscernible] on the back of that, they were in a very similar position.

尼爾，我想說的是，正如我們在 2023 年所處的世界一樣，自 2015 年以來，我們實際上並沒有對這個投資組合的增長進行太多投資，然後在那之後收購了 [聽不清]，他們的處境非常相似。

So much of the growth capital that we put forward was really stuff that was almost a no-brainer in terms of capital efficiencies and returns and making those investments at a time when the debt was close to our debt targets and at a time when we had robust free cash flow made a ton of sense for us.

我們投入的大部分成長資本在資本效率和回報方面幾乎是無需考慮的事情，而且在債務接近我們的債務目標且我們擁有強勁的自由現金流的時候進行這些投資對我們來說非常有意義。

Having that kind of a portfolio where you have those kind of opportunities to the magnitude and the economics that we saw in 2023 is probably a little more muted in 2025, in that we probably don't have the same level of opportunities that we saw there. So what you will see is growth capital come off and it'll start to come off later this year and that'll continue into 2026 and '27 and you'll see a higher percentage of free cash flow generation and that will go back to the shareholders.

擁有這樣的投資組合，你就會有那樣的機會，而我們在 2023 年看到的經濟形勢和規模，在 2025 年可能會稍微溫和一些，因為我們可能不會再擁有當時看到的同等程度的機會。因此，您將看到成長資本的減少，它將在今年稍後開始減少，並將持續到 2026 年和 2027 年，您將看到更高比例的自由現金流產生，這些將返還給股東。

Thanks.

謝謝。

John Royall from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 John Royall。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is on the balance sheet. Kam talked about not wanting to lean into the balance sheet for capital allocation, but your net debt has drifted up to about CAD600 million above your target at this point. I think the drivers in 4Q were pretty clear. I mean negative excess refunds and coupled with the paydown of the preferred. But should we think about you as more maintaining the 100% levels going forward or might you pull back a bit over the near term just to get back towards that CAD4 billion?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於資產負債表的。Kam 表示不想依賴資產負債表進行資本配置，但目前您的淨債務已比目標高出約 6 億加元。我認為第四季的驅動因素非常明確。我的意思是負超額退款和優先股的償還。但是，我們是否應該認為您將來會繼續維持 100% 的水平，還是會近期稍微撤回一點，以回到 40 億加元的目標？

Hi, John, it's Kam. Maybe just to expand on the comments I made earlier. So just looking at the fourth quarter for a second. So clearly in Q4 the net debt moved up a little bit from where we were in the third quarter. Some of that was driven by sort of the change in the Canadian dollar weakening relative to US dollar because we do have a fair amount of US dollar denominated debt.

嗨，約翰，我是 Kam。也許只是為了擴展我之前所發表的評論。我們只看一下第四季。因此，顯然第四季的淨債務較第三季略有上升。部分原因是加幣兌美元走弱，因為我們確實擁有相當數量的以美元計價的債務。

So that impacted us in Q4. We also, as Jon talked about on the call, we had some undersold production in the quarter, of which I think some of that you're going to see that reverse into cash in Q1. And then obviously we made a decision on the pref redemption.

所以這對我們第四季產生了影響。正如喬恩在電話會議上談到的那樣，我們在本季有一些售罄的產品，我認為其中一些產品將在第一季轉化為現金。然後我們顯然就優先贖回做出了決定。

So the way I think about, as we enter this year is, we, the number one priority is always going to continue to be driving and holding the debt to that CAD4 billion. So in the short to medium term, yes, you might see us put a little bit more on the balance sheet to get us back to four. But I think the goal and the urgency is to get us to a position that we can get after share buybacks as quickly as possible.

因此，我認為，當我們進入今年時，我們的首要任務始終是繼續推動並維持 40 億加元的債務。因此，從短期到中期來看，是的，您可能會看到我們在資產負債表上投入更多資金以回到四個。但我認為目標和迫切性是讓我們盡快達到股票回購後可以達到的地位。

And that is still a priority for us, I think. And Jon talked a little bit about this. I think that one of the things you're going to see this year is, we do have, a bit more turnaround activity in the first half of the year.

我認為這對我們來說仍然是首要任務。喬恩談了一點這個問題。我認為，今年您將會看到的事情之一是，我們上半年確實會有更多的扭虧為盈的活動。

Obviously, at Foster Creek and Toledo we've got - and then comes down with that is costs and the capital is a little bit front-end weighted. So that inflection you're going to see on free cash flow is going to really start to kick in as we move into the third quarter. So the short, you'd see a little bit less buybacks. But I think we're committed to absolutely returning 100% as quickly as we can.

顯然，在福斯特溪和托萊多，我們已經得到了 - 然後隨之而來的是成本和資本有點前端加權。因此，隨著我們進入第三季度，自由現金流的轉折點將真正開始顯現。簡而言之，你會看到回購量稍微減少一些。但我認為我們致力於盡快恢復 100％。

Great, thank you. And then my follow-ups on the conventional business. There's actually a fair amount of growth when I look at the midpoint of guidance relative to where you finish the year in '24. And that's coming off kind of a flattish year last year. So can you just talk about your go-forward strategy in conventional and what's driving that increase this year?

太好了，謝謝。然後我會跟進常規業務。當我查看相對於 24 年年底的指導中點時，實際上有相當大的增長。這與去年持平的情況相比。那麼，您能否談談您在傳統領域的未來發展策略，以及今年推動這項成長的因素？

Yes, I'll speak to that, John. Conventional has been a business that we haven't really invested much in over the past number of years because one, we've been focused on debt reduction and two, with the growth capital that we've added to the portfolio over the last three years, there just hasn't been any room for conventional. But it's a portfolio that's got lots of opportunity in terms of liquids, rich gas, and investment that we can make it, pretty high return.

是的，我會談這個問題，約翰。過去幾年來，我們並沒有在傳統業務上投入太多資金，因為第一，我們一直專注於減債；第二，過去三年來，我們向投資組合中增加了增長資本，因此傳統業務已沒有任何空間。但這個投資組合在液體、富氣和投資方面有很多機會，我們可以獲得相當高的回報。

So it's the strategy that we are pursuing to kind of drill to fill, fill our infrastructure, generate cost of capital returns at the bottom of the cycle. But we'll invest kind of CAD400 million into that business this year. And that's probably a decent go-forward rate at this point. But to offset declines and grow production for that kind of investment is something that's of high return to shareholders.

所以，我們奉行的策略是透過鑽探來填補，填補我們的基礎設施，在週期的底部產生資本成本回報。但我們今年將向該業務投資4億加幣。目前來看，這或許是個不錯的前進速度。但抵銷下滑並增加產量對於此類投資而言是能為股東帶來高回報的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Dennis Fong from CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自加拿大帝國商業銀行全球市場的 Dennis Fong。請繼續。

Hi, sorry, had to hop back on for one more. I had a quick question. Just really around Toledo. At the time when you closed the acquisition, it also included a multi-year product supply agreement with BP, given some of the operation of that refinery and other refineries in the region, can you talk towards some of the learnings that you had in terms of the opening slides product perspective as well as essentially how you think about that specific supply agreement and if that can change anytime in the future? Thanks.

嗨，很抱歉，不得不再跳一次。我有一個簡單的問題。就在托萊多周圍。在你們完成收購的時候，也與 BP 達成了一項多年期產品供應協議，考慮到該煉油廠和該地區其他煉油廠的部分運營情況，你能否談談你在開場幻燈片的產品視角方面所獲得的一些經驗，以及你對那項具體供應協議的看法，以及它在未來是否會發生變化？謝謝。

I'm looking at Geoff. It's a relatively immaterial part of the portfolio as it relates to the entire transaction. But Geoff, maybe you can speak to the.

我正在看著傑夫。由於它與整個交易相關，所以它是投資組合中相對不重要的部分。但是傑夫，也許你可以和他們談談。

Dennis, the way we think about that, as Jon said, is relatively small compared to the overall portfolio. One thing that we do like about it is that it was a means to place physical volume with a counterparty who has a physical home for it and allow us to overtime work into it or out of it based on value as we can choose to place volume differently or with that buyer.

丹尼斯，正如喬恩所說，我們認為這與整體投資組合相比相對較小。我們確實喜歡它的一點是，它是一種將實物交易量與有實物交易量存放地的交易對手方進行放置的手段，並且允許我們根據價值加班加點地進行交易，因為我們可以選擇以不同的方式或與該買家放置交易量。

Obviously, that buyer is significant in the market and we'll just continue to evaluate that in terms of future opportunity. We sell significant volume to a really long list of people and we'll compare those sales against this opportunity as we can optimize it over time.

顯然，該買家在市場上具有重要意義，我們將繼續根據未來的機會進行評估。我們向許多客戶銷售了大量產品，我們會將這些銷售量與這個機會進行比較，以便隨著時間的推移進行最佳化。

Great. Thank you. Appreciate that color, Geoff.

偉大的。謝謝。很欣賞那個顏色，傑夫。

Great. Thanks, Dennis.

偉大的。謝謝，丹尼斯。

Manav Gupta from UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

I apologize. I got knocked out on the call when the technical difficulty happened. So if somebody has already asked it, I'm very sorry. I just wanted to understand your outlook for the heavy-light differentials and its impact on your businesses, whether it's Upstream, Downstream and even Canadian Downstream.

我很抱歉。當出現技術故障時，我在通話中被打斷了。因此如果有人已經問過這個問題，我深感抱歉。我只是想了解您對重輕差異的看法及其對您的業務的影響，無論是上游、下游，甚至是加拿大下游。

Sure. Well, maybe I'll start and then I'll turn it over to Geoff. But a narrow differential is good for this company. So our exposure to the WCS-WTI differential preferences are Upstream business more than it degrades our Downstream business in terms of the flow of funds. That's kind of at a high level. But I'll turn it over to Geoff to give you a view of how we're thinking about that differential going forward.

當然。好吧，也許我先開始，然後再將其交給傑夫。但較小的差異對於這家公司來說是件好事。因此，從資金流的角度來看，我們對 WCS-WTI 差異偏好的曝險對上游業務的影響大於對下游業務的影響。這已經是很高水準了。但我將把問題交給傑夫 (Geoff)，讓他向您介紹我們如何看待未來的差異。

Manav, It's Geoff. This is one of the things we spend lots of every day thinking about. Obviously, the answer to your question depends on different time frames. Right here, right now, through the balance of last year and looking forward right now, TMX is here, it's on, it's working. We said that, I don't know, Q2 of last year. The real proof in that pudding has been through winter where we have seen new five-year, I guess you would call it low discounts. And that's as a result of Trans Mountain being able to move that volume.

Manav，我是 Geoff。這是我們每天花大量時間思考的事情之一。顯然，你的問題的答案取決於不同的時間框架。就在此時此刻，回顧去年的業績並展望未來，TMX 就在這裡，它正在運行，它正在努力。我們說過，我不知道，去年第二季。真正的證據已在冬季顯現，我們看到了新的五年期債券，我想你會稱之為低折扣。這是因為 Trans Mountain 能夠運輸該體積的天然氣。

We believe that continues to persist. And then as we look forward, I think we've long said that we believe producers will do what producers do, which is find oil. And the question is, when do we start to get towards filling up available capacity? Along with most of industry, we believe that is later this decade. And one of the things that we're working hard on right now is various different forms of future egress.

我們相信這種情況將會持續下去。展望未來，我想我們早就說過，我們相信生產商會做生產商該做的事，那就是尋找石油。問題是，我們什麼時候才能開始填滿可用容量？與大多數行業一樣，我們相信這將在本世紀末。我們目前正在努力研究的事情之一就是未來各種不同形式的出口。

And what I would say on that front is there are a number of really interesting opportunities coming to market right now that have us believing in good opportunities for the differential to stay relatively narrow over time.

關於這一點我想說的是，目前市場上出現了許多非常有趣的機會，我們相信這些機會可以讓差距隨著時間的推移而保持相對較小。

Thank you so much. I'll turn it over.

太感謝了。我把它翻過來。

Great. Thanks, Mona.

偉大的。謝謝，莫娜。

Chris Barko from Calgary Herald.

卡加利先驅報的克里斯·巴科。

Hi, Jon, thanks for taking my call. Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. I just wanted to ask you, Jon, about the impact of tariffs on your capital spending plans for 2025, if they come into place, and also how you think they might affect the integrated nature of your operations on both sides of the border.

嗨，喬恩，謝謝你接聽我的電話。早安.感謝您接聽我的電話。喬恩，我只是想問你，如果關稅實施，它會對你 2025 年的資本支出計劃產生什麼影響，以及你認為它會如何影響你在邊境兩邊的業務的綜合性。

Yes. We think about that a lot, Chris, and we've done a lot of work on tariffs. So the short answer to your question, as it relates to our plans for 2025 is nothing. The tariffs will not impact our spending plans in 2025. As you know, we limit our capital test levels, and we're in the process of finishing off some very important projects for this company. So I don't think there's anything that we would see on the tariff side that would change any of our operating plans this year in the near near future.

是的。克里斯，我們對此考慮了很多，並且在關稅方面做了很多工作。因此，對於您這個問題的簡短回答是，就我們 2025 年的計劃而言，沒有什麼可說的。關稅不會影響我們2025年的支出計畫。如您所知，我們限制了我們的資本測試水平，並且我們正在完成該公司的一些非常重要的項目。因此，我認為，關稅方面近期不會發生任何改變我們今年營運計畫的事情。

In terms of the impact of tariffs, there's been a lot of discussion through industry and through the press on who's going to be impacted by this. And it's actually a pretty difficult question to answer in that. It affects so many of the variables that impact to our cash flow and that's certainly one that could be impacted, but there's also a knock-on impacts on the price of condensate, the price of natural gas, which are all inputs to our business that would probably be preference to us as well as what happens to refining margins in the US as well as FX rates.

就關稅的影響而言，業界和媒體對誰將受到影響進行了大量討論。事實上，這是一個很難回答的問題。它影響到許多影響我們現金流的變量，而這當然是可能受到影響的一個變量，但它也會對凝析油價格、天然氣價格產生連鎖影響，這些都是我們業務的投入，可能對我們有利，也會影響到美國的煉油利潤率以及外匯匯率。

So when you kind of look at the spectrum, of all the things that impact our cash flow, it's really not clear to us who's going to pay which portion of the tariff as well as what the overall impact would be to the company. So what we're doing is we're watching the price signals very closely to get a feel for that. And if we are in a world, unfortunately, in March, where tariffs do come, we will watch those price signals and react accordingly.

因此，當你從範圍來看所有影響我們現金流的因素時，我們確實不清楚誰將支付哪一部分關稅，以及這對公司的整體影響是什麼。因此，我們正在密切關注價格訊號以了解情況。如果不幸的是，在三月份，關稅真的來了，我們會關注這些價格訊號並做出相應的反應。

Just to clarify that or follow up on that, do you think that, I guess the question of who pays the tariffs, whether it's producers, refiners, or consumers, do you think that's impacted by geography as well, or do you have a sort of a clear sense on which, on what that share might be?

只是為了澄清或跟進這一點，您是否認為，我猜誰支付關稅的問題，無論是生產商、煉油商還是消費者，您是否認為這也受到地理位置的影響，或者您是否清楚地知道這個份額可能是多少？

Yes, Chris, we don't have a clear sense and that's why it's important to continue to watch the price signals. So, our area where we export a lot of crude into is into PADD 2, and there's been a lot of speculation on who's going to pay for which portion of the tariff. But I really think it's unclear at this point in time and hopefully, we won't have to find out.

是的，克里斯，我們並沒有明確的認識，這就是為什麼繼續關注價格訊號很重要。因此，我們出口大量原油的地區是 PADD 2，對於誰將支付哪一部分關稅存在許多猜測。但我確實認為目前還不清楚，希望我們不必去找答案。

Just separately if I could sneak one last in, I wanted to know if you think the tariff situation or frankly, the upcoming federal election in Canada changes at all the likelihood of the pathway project proceeding this year.

另外，如果我可以最後再插播一點的話，我想知道您是否認為關稅形勢，或者坦白說，加拿大即將舉行的聯邦選舉，會改變今年道路項目推進的可能性。

I don't think it changes anything, Chris. I think, what we've talked about is our willingness to move forward with the project if we can get the appropriate set of financial supports to do it. This is a project that doesn't have a return. It's an expense, and we're willing to pay something, but we need the appropriate set of supports from the federal and provincial government to make it happen.

我認為這不會改變任何事情，克里斯。我認為，我們所談論的是，如果我們能夠獲得適當的財政支持，我們願意繼續推進該專案。這是一個沒有回報的項目。這是一筆開支，我們願意支付一些費用，但我們需要聯邦和省政府的適當支持才能實現這一目標。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great. Thanks, Chris.

偉大的。謝謝，克里斯。

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Jon McKenzie. Please go ahead.

謝謝。目前還沒有其他問題。現在我想將會議交給喬恩·麥肯齊先生。請繼續。

Great. And thank you very much. We certainly appreciate your time and interest in the company this morning. Have a great day, everybody.

偉大的。非常感謝。我們非常感謝您今天上午花時間和對公司的關注。祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。請立即斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。