Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Cenovus Energy's First Quarter Results. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this conference call may not be recorded or rebroadcast without the express consent of Cenovus Energy.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎來到 Cenovus Energy 第一季業績。提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）請注意，未經 Cenovus Energy 明確同意，不得錄製或轉播本次電話會議。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Jason Abbate, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Abbate.

我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁傑森·阿巴特 (Jason Abbate) 先生。請繼續，阿巴特先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cenovus' 2024 First Quarter Results Conference Call. On the call this morning, our CEO, John McKenzie, will take you through our results. Then we'll open the line for John and members of the Cenovus' management team to take your questions. Before getting started, I refer you to our advisories located at the end of today's news release. These describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures and oil and gas terms referred to today. They also outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加 Cenovus 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。在今天早上的電話會議上，我們的執行長約翰·麥肯齊 (John McKenzie) 將向您介紹我們的業績。然後我們將開通 John 和 Cenovus 管理團隊成員的熱線來回答您的問題。在開始之前，我建議您參閱今天新聞稿末尾的建議。這些描述了今天提到的前瞻性資訊、非公認會計原則措施以及石油和天然氣術語。他們也概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素和假設。

Additional information is available in Cenovus' annual MD&A and our most recent AIF and Form 40-F. All figures are presented in Canadian dollars and before royalties unless otherwise stated. You can view our results on our website at cenovus.com. (Operator Instructions) Jon, please go ahead.

更多資訊請參閱 Cenovus 的年度 MD&A 以及我們最新的 AIF 和表格 40-F。除非另有說明，所有數字均以加幣表示，且不含特許權使用費。您可以在我們的網站 cenovus.com 上查看我們的結果。 （操作員指示）喬恩，請繼續。

Great. And thank you very much, Jason, and good morning, everybody. Safety is at the forefront of everything we do at Cenovus, and I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge an important accomplishment in the first quarter. In our Atlantic region, we safely and successfully took the SeaRose FPSO off station, which is a once in 10 year or more activity, a job well done by everybody involved.

偉大的。非常感謝傑森，大家早安。安全是我們在 Cenovus 所做的一切的首要任務，我想花點時間來表彰第一季的重要成就。在我們的大西洋地區，我們安全、成功地將 SeaRose FPSO 移離站，這是 10 年或更久一次的活動，每個參與人員都出色地完成了這項工作。

Now at our Investor Day, we outlined our strategic objectives, the low-cost organic growth opportunities with our high-quality assets and how we'll leverage our integrated value chain. We also talked about our disciplined financial framework, which includes growing shareholder returns.

現在，在投資者日，我們概述了我們的策略目標、利用我們的優質資產實現的低成本有機成長機會，以及我們將如何利用我們的綜合價值鏈。我們也討論了我們嚴格的財務框架，其中包括不斷增長的股東回報。

Our first quarter results are a reflection of our disciplined approach to managing this business. We continue to be pleased with the performance of our upstream business while driving focused improvement in downstream operations and increasing margin capture with the quarter achieving the highest throughput to date.

我們第一季的業績反映了我們管理這項業務的嚴謹方法。我們繼續對上游業務的表現感到滿意，同時推動下游業務的集中改進並提高利潤率，本季實現了迄今為止的最高吞吐量。

Our Upstream business delivered strong operating results in line with the prior quarter with production of around 800,000 barrels equivalent per day. This was slightly lower than Q4 with planned maintenance having started at the SeaRose FPSO.

我們的上游業務實現了與上一季持平的強勁營運業績，日產量約為 80 萬桶當量。這略低於第四季度，因為 SeaRose FPSO 已開始計劃維護。

I'd like to highlight the Lloydminster thermals produced over 114,000 barrels per day the highest quarterly average in the history of the asset, reflecting higher operating efficiency and improved downhole pump reliability. Our oil sands and thermal assets continue to produce exceptional results. We remain on track to deliver future production growth from Narrows Lake tieback to Christina Lake. The pipeline is now 67% constructed with hydro testing in line and plan to be completed by the end of the year. And at Foster Creek optimization project, this is on schedule for our targeted 2026 start-up.

我想強調的是，勞埃德明斯特熱電廠每天生產超過 114,000 桶石油，這是該資產歷史上最高的季度平均值，反映出更高的運作效率和改進的井下泵可靠性。我們的油砂和熱資產持續創造卓越的績效。我們仍有望實現從 Narrows Lake 回接至 Christina Lake 的未來產量成長。該管道現已完成 67%，正在進行水壓測試，計劃於今年年底完成。在 Foster Creek 優化計畫中，我們的目標是 2026 年啟動。

We'll also be starting up two additional well pads at Sunrise later this year, supporting the base production and the start of production growth in 2025. We also continue to optimize our turnaround schedule. And as such, we have advanced some of the work out of our planned Q3 turnaround at Christina Lake into Q2. The impact of our planned outages can be found in the maintenance table in the news release.

今年晚些時候，我們還將在 Sunrise 啟動另外兩個井場，以支援基礎生產並在 2025 年開始產量成長。因此，我們已將克里斯蒂娜湖計劃的第三季週轉工作的一些工作提前到第二季。我們計劃停電的影響可以在新聞稿的維護表中找到。

We're also looking forward to the important milestone for our industry with the imminent startup of the TMX pipeline. This critical piece of -- with this critical piece of infrastructure now complete, we anticipate light-heavy differentials will remain narrow for years, while excess egress capacity exists.

我們也期待 TMX 管道即將啟動，成為我們產業的重要里程碑。隨著這項關鍵基礎設施現已完成，我們預計輕重差異將在數年內保持縮小，同時存在過剩的出口容量。

And in our conventional gas business, production volumes remained relatively consistent around 121,000 BOE per day. And as a reminder, we test all opportunities at the bottom of the pricing cycle and we continue to progress our capital program with a focus on safe execution and cost reductions.

在我們的傳統天然氣業務中，產量相對穩定，約為每天 121,000 桶油當量。提醒一下，我們在定價週期底部測試所有機會，並繼續推進我們的資本計劃，重點是安全執行和降低成本。

First quarter production in our offshore business segments remained steady at approximately 65,000 BOE per day. The Asia Pacific assets continued to operate reliably generating about $263 million of operating margin.

第一季我們海上業務部門的產量穩定在每天約 65,000 桶油當量。亞太區資產繼續可靠地經營，產生約 2.63 億美元的營業利潤。

In the Atlantic region, turnover returned to production and contributed about 7,200 barrels per day in the first quarter. The SeaRose FPSO is a dry dock with regulatory maintenance work progressing as planned in preparation for the startup of the West White Rose project in 2026.

在大西洋地區，營業額恢復生產，第一季貢獻了約 7,200 桶/日。 SeaRose FPSO 是一座乾船塢，監管維護工作正在按計劃進行，為 2026 年 West White Rose 專案的啟動做準備。

Now as we previously communicated, we anticipate the SeaRose will return to production late in the third quarter of 2024. The progression of the White Rose project continues as planned and is now approximately 80% complete.

正如我們之前所傳達的，我們預計 SeaRose 將於 2024 年第三季末恢復生產。

Overall, our capital spend remains on track for this project. In the first quarter, the company spent just over $1 billion in capital, and we expect to be well within our guidance range for total capital spend this year. It was another strong quarter for upstream business, and we look forward to continuing to execute our plans as the year progresses.

總體而言，我們該項目的資本支出仍然正常。第一季度，該公司的資本支出略高於 10 億美元，我們預計今年的總資本支出將完全在我們的指導範圍內。這是上游業務又一個強勁的季度，我們期待著隨著時間的推移繼續執行我們的計劃。

Now moving to our downstream segment. In our Canadian refining business, average utilization for the first quarter was about 94%. Our refining and upgrading assets continued to perform very well with high reliability. That said, the refining margin contribution from the Canadian refining segment was impacted by the decline in synthetic crude prices over the quarter and narrow heavy oil differentials in March.

現在轉向我們的下游部分。在我們的加拿大煉油業務中，第一季的平均利用率約為 94%。我們的煉油和升級資產持續表現良好，可靠性高。儘管如此，加拿大煉油部門的煉油利潤貢獻受到本季合成原油價格下跌和 3 月重油價差縮小的影響。

In the next few weeks, we'll be executing a large-scale turnaround at the Lloydminster upgrader that is expected to reduce Q2 throughput by about 45,000 barrels per day for the quarter. This has already been reflected in our corporate guidance for the year. In the U.S. refining segment, combined crude utilization across the assets was 87%, an increase from the prior quarter.

在接下來的幾週內，我們將對勞埃德明斯特升級廠進行大規模週轉，預計該季度第二季的吞吐量將減少約 45,000 桶/日。這已經反映在我們今年的企業指引中。在美國煉油部門，整個資產的原油綜合利用率為 87%，較上一季成長。

This was primarily driven by lower levels of planned maintenance at our non-operated refineries and improved operating performance across the refining portfolio. The weak Chicago crack environment in the fourth quarter of 2023 was a challenge for our U.S. business that carried into January of 2024. With product inventories rebalancing in the PADD II market, we've seen a strong rebound in the Chicago crack spread, which we were able to take advantage with all of our refineries operationally available and running well. This resulted in a meaningful improvement to our U.S. refining margins exiting the first quarter.

這主要是由於我們非營運煉油廠的計畫維護水準較低以及整個煉油產品組合營運績效的提升所致。 2023 年第四季疲軟的芝加哥裂解價差對我們的美國業務構成了挑戰，這一挑戰一直持續到2024 年1 月。 隨著PADD II 市場的產品庫存重新平衡，我們看到芝加哥裂解價差強勁反彈，我們我們能夠利用我們所有已投入且運作良好的煉油廠。這導致我們第一季美國煉油利潤率顯著改善。

We anticipate the Chicago crack environment to remain relatively strong with heavy industry turnaround schedule underway and seasonal demand strengthening.

我們預計，隨著重工業週轉計畫的進行和季節性需求的加強，芝加哥的裂縫環境將保持相對強勁。

Overall, we had the highest quarterly throughput for our downstream business since the acquisition of our operated refining assets in 2021, demonstrating the continued progress of our plans to improve the reliability profitability and utilization of the business.

總體而言，自 2021 年收購我們營運的煉油資產以來，我們下游業務的季度吞吐量最高，這表明我們提高業務可靠性、盈利能力和利用率的計劃持續取得進展。

Now to our corporate and financial performance. Cenovus generated $3.2 billion of operating margin in the first quarter, approximately $2.2 billion of adjusted funds flow and $1.2 billion of free funds flow which reflects higher refining benchmark prices and about $195 million FIFO gain in the U.S. Refining segment. That was offset by about $250 million for share-based compensation paid in the first quarter.

現在談談我們的公司和財務表現。 Cenovus 第一季實現了32 億美元的營業利潤、約22 億美元的調整後資金流和12 億美元的自由資金流，這反映了煉油基準價格的提高以及美國煉油部門約1.95 億美元的FIFO 收益。這被第一季支付的約 2.5 億美元的股權激勵所抵消。

Through our base dividend, we returned $262 million to shareholders and the Board of Directors also approved an increase to the quarterly base dividend of 29% to $0.72 per share annually, consistent with the company's commitment to grow shareholder returns. In alignment with our shareholder returns framework, we returned $165 million to shareholders through our share buyback program in Q1, and the Board of Directors declared a variable dividend of $251 million, fulfilling our commitment of 50% of excess free funds flow returned to shareholders.

透過基本股息，我們向股東返還了 2.62 億美元，董事會還批准將季度基本股息提高 29%，達到每年每股 0.72 美元，這符合公司增加股東回報的承諾。根據我們的股東回報框架，我們透過第一季的股票回購計畫向股東返還了1.65 億美元，董事會宣布可變股息2.51 億美元，履行了我們將超額自由資金流的50% 返還給股東的承諾。

Now subsequent to the end of the quarter, from April 1 to April 26, the company repurchased approximately $250 million worth of shares through our NCIB or about 8.6 million shares. The company's net debt was approximately $4.8 billion at the end of the first quarter, a reduction of $233 million from year-end and included a $370 million build in noncash working capital. And this was largely a function of benchmark pricing improvements and steady operations across the value chains.

在本季末後，從 4 月 1 日到 4 月 26 日，該公司透過我們的 NCIB 回購了價值約 2.5 億美元的股票，約 860 萬股股票。截至第一季末，該公司的淨債務約為 48 億美元，比年底減少 2.33 億美元，其中包括 3.7 億美元的非現金營運資金。這在很大程度上是基準定價改善和整個價值鏈穩定營運的結果。

Since we set our 2024 budget in December, commodity prices have exceeded our expectations and based on the current commodity price complex and our operating plan, we expect to achieve our net debt target at some point in the summer of 2024.

自從我們在 12 月制定 2024 年預算以來，大宗商品價格超出了我們的預期，根據當前的大宗商品價格綜合體和我們的營運計劃，我們預計將在 2024 年夏季的某個時候實現淨債務目標。

As we described in the first quarter news release, we're also introducing some minor changes to our shareholder returns framework. Once we achieve our net debt threshold, we'll be targeting -- we will target allocate 100% and of each subsequent quarter's excess free funds flow to shareholder returns. This remains unchanged from our current approach. In the event that net debt exceeds $4 billion at a given quarter's end, we will reduce the 100% target allocation of excess refunds flow by the amount that net debt exceeded $4 billion.

正如我們在第一季新聞稿中所述，我們也對股東回報框架進行了一些細微的改變。一旦我們達到淨債務門檻，我們的目標就是將 100% 的目標以及隨後每季的超額自由資金流分配給股東回報。這與我們目前的方法保持不變。如果特定季度末淨債務超過 40 億美元，我們將按照淨債務超過 40 億美元的金額減少超額退款流 100% 的目標分配。

In order to efficiently manage working capital and cash, the allocation of excess free funds flow to shareholder returns may be accelerated, deferred or reallocated between quarters while maintaining our target to allocate 100% of excess free funds flow over time to shareholder returns and sustained net debt at $4 billion. This new framework will become effective once we reach $4 billion net debt target and until then, there will be no change to the current target allocation of 50% of excess free funds flow to shareholder returns and 50% of excess refunds flow to deleveraging the balance sheet.

為了有效管理營運資金和現金，超額自由資金流向股東回報的分配可能會加速、推遲或在季度之間重新分配，同時保持我們的目標，即隨著時間的推移將100% 的超額自由資金流分配給股東回報並持續淨值債務達40億美元。一旦我們達到40 億美元的淨債務目標，這個新框架就會生效，在此之前，目前的目標分配不會改變，即50% 的超額自由資金流向股東回報，50% 的超額退款流向去槓桿化餘額床單。

Ultimately, the goal of the revised framework is to improve flexibility while continuing to strive towards paying 100% shareholder returns over time and sustain net debt of $4 billion.

最終，修訂後的框架的目標是提高靈活性，同時繼續努力爭取隨著時間的推移支付 100% 的股東回報並維持 40 億美元的淨債務。

Now before closing, I'm pleased to share that during the quarter of -- first quarter of 2024, the company received a credit rating upgraded from S&P Global to BBB with a stable outlook. With this target achieved, we have received mid-BBB ratings from all rating agencies.

現在，在結束之前，我很高興與大家分享，在 2024 年第一季度，該公司的信用評級從標準普爾全球升級至 BBB，前景穩定。隨著這一目標的實現，我們獲得了所有評級機構的中等 BBB 評級。

As we said at our Investor Day, we're focused on achieving our $4 billion net debt target, progressing our high-return growth projects in the upstream and continuing to run the downstream business reliably, profitably and safely showing improvements quarter-over-quarter.

正如我們在投資者日所說，我們的重點是實現 40 億美元的淨債務目標，推進上游的高回報增長項目，並繼續可靠、盈利和安全地運營下游業務，顯示出季度環比的改善。

And with that, I think we're all ready to answer your questions.

至此，我想我們已經準備好回答您的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Greg Pardy from RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Greg Pardy。

So let's start maybe just with the share price range you guys have talked about in the past. I believe the upper bound was around 30%, where variables became more attractive and buybacks were less attractive. Could you revisit that? I'm just curious maybe what that range looks like? And then presumably, that upper bound number is going to rise with time.

那麼，讓我們先從你們過去討論過的股價範圍開始吧。我認為上限約為 30%，此時變數變得更具吸引力，而回購的吸引力較小。你能再回顧一下嗎？我只是好奇這個範圍是什麼樣的？然後據推測，該上限數字將隨著時間的推移而上升。

Greg, it's Kam. First off, I'm just going to say that the number that you're referencing, I would say, was purely used as an illustrative measure to describe what our framework is. It is not a ceiling. In fact, I would say, as John pointed out on the call, we bought back $250 million shares here over the last month. So we still see a lot of attractive return to continue to buy back shares, and you'll continue to see us active in the market, as I mentioned in April.

格雷格，我是卡姆。首先，我想說的是，我想說，您引用的數字純粹是用作說明性措施來描述我們的框架是什麼。這不是天花板。事實上，我想說，正如約翰在電話會議上指出的那樣，我們在上個月回購了 2.5 億美元的股票。因此，我們仍然看到很多有吸引力的回報，可以繼續回購股票，正如我在四月份提到的那樣，您將繼續看到我們在市場上活躍。

So the principles around that framework has not changed. I would say we still have lots of room to continue on the plan that we have. The variable payment that we made through Q1 is really a reflection of the very formulaic approach that we took to our framework that we've outlined previously in that if we under allocate that we would pay out the remainder through a variable. So it is not a reflection of any kind of ceiling on the share price. I would say it's a reflection of us sticking to the commitment that we made on the framework.

因此，圍繞該框架的原則並沒有改變。我想說，我們仍有很大的空間來繼續我們的計畫。我們透過第一季進行的可變支付實際上反映了我們在先前概述的框架中採用的非常公式化的方法，如果我們分配不足，我們將透過變數支付剩餘部分。因此，這並不反映股價有任何上限。我想說，這反映了我們堅持對框架的承諾。

So -- and as John described, going forward, we are going to give ourselves some flexibility if we do end up over underallocating that we will look at either buying shares or looking at a variable dividend. But today, still lots of opportunity to continue to repurchase shares.

因此，正如約翰所描述的，展望未來，如果我們最終確實分配不足，我們將給予自己一定的靈活性，我們將考慮購買股票或考慮可變股息。但今天，繼續回購股票的機會仍然很多。

Yes, Greg, and I would just add on to that, please don't read into the fact that we've got a variable dividend as any kind of view that we take internally on the intrinsic value of the stock. One of the things that we have to do on a quarter-over-quarter basis is allocate excess free cash flow as it arrives to shareholder returns. And you'll note in the quarter that cracks in Chicago were actually quite depressed. And in fact, gasoline cracks were negative in January. All of that changed in February and March, and you're kind of in a window where you have to make some estimates about how much excess free cash flow you're going to have in a very volatile commodity market.

是的，格雷格，我想補充一點，請不要將我們擁有可變股息這一事實視為我們內部對股票內在價值的任何看法。我們必須按季度做的事情之一是在股東回報時分配多餘的自由現金流。你會注意到，在本季度，芝加哥的裂縫實際上相當低迷。事實上，一月汽油裂解量為負值。所有這一切都在二月和三月發生了變化，你正處於一個窗口，你必須對在非常波動的商品市場中將擁有多少多餘的自由現金流做出一些估計。

In Q4 of 2023, we underestimated or we overestimated the amount of excess free cash flow we were going to have. And I think in this quarter, we are probably on the other end of it. But that shouldn't be -- or nobody should take that as a reflection about how we feel what the intrinsic value of the shares.

在 2023 年第四季度，我們低估或高估了我們將擁有的超額自由現金流量。我認為在本季度，我們可能處於困境的另一端。但這不應該——或者沒有人應該將其視為我們如何看待股票內在價值的反映。

Okay. That's actually really helpful to clarify. So I'm going to completely shift gears maybe on the TMX. Just curious, could you bring us up to speed maybe with where you stand in the marketing process. So have you fulfilled your line fill, have you got tankers kind of set to go do you expect to make sales or record sales in the second quarter?

好的。這其實對澄清很有幫助。所以我可能會在 TMX 上徹底改變方向。只是好奇，您能為我們介紹一下您在行銷過程中的立場嗎？那麼，您是否已經完成了生產線的填充工作，您的油輪是否已準備就緒，您希望在第二季度實現銷售或創紀錄的銷售嗎？

Greg, it's Drew. Simple answer is yes to all your questions. So this is a really good day for Canada. TMX came out this morning and they are officially on commencement. So I think this has been a long way today for everybody. So we're pretty excited on behalf of the industry and Canada to have another great asset available to us. So to your question, we have been preparing for this for quite some time.

格雷格，是德魯。對於您所有的問題，簡單的回答是“是”。所以這對加拿大來說真是美好的一天。 TMX 今天早上出來了，他們正式開始了。所以我認為今天對每個人來說都走了很長的路。因此，我們代表整個產業和加拿大非常高興能夠獲得另一項寶貴的資產。關於你提到的問題，我們已經為此準備了很長一段時間。

Our last component of the very small volume of final line fill is going here now this month, and it's about 1.3 million barrels of our share and so over the last quarter and then finishing this quarter, that full fill from our share is going to be in place. Our teams have been working with buyers. There's a pretty vast market out there, which is exciting.

我們的最終生產線填充量非常小，最後一部分將在本月運抵這裡，大約占我們份額的 130 萬桶，因此在上個季度以及本季度結束時，我們份額的全部填充量將是到位。我們的團隊一直在與買家合作。那裡有一個相當廣闊的市場，這是令人興奮的。

And yes, we are preparing to start to ship, and we expect the operation to commence here in May. And as we've talked about the last few quarters, we are expecting it to be a bit bumpy as things get up to good stable state so we are anticipating a little bit of bumpiness, but the teams are taking that into account. But it's a great day to start using the asset.

是的，我們正在準備開始出貨，預計營運將於五月開始。正如我們在過去幾個季度所討論的那樣，我們預計隨著事情達到良好的穩定狀態，會有點坎坷，所以我們預計會有點坎坷，但團隊正在考慮這一點。但這是開始使用該資產的好日子。

And your next question comes from the line of Dennis Fong from CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Dennis Fong。

Maybe the first one here is just related to superior. Can we get maybe an update in terms of the ramp-up of the facility as well as how you guys are thinking about the cadence of the deinventory event at Superior as well?

也許這裡的第一個只是與上級有關。我們能否獲得有關設施升級的最新信息，以及你們如何考慮Superior 的去庫存活動的節奏？

Dennis, it's Keith here. Things are progressing as per our plan. We talked about last quarter, taking kind of the first 6 months to the inventory from kind of up and down starts in 2023 and the inventory that we built up. All of the kit is running well, and we're progressing on that the inventory plan. .

丹尼斯，我是基斯。事情正在按照我們的計劃進行。我們談到了上個季度，從 2023 年開始的前 6 個月的庫存以及我們建立的庫存來看。所有套件都運作良好，我們正在推進庫存計劃。 。

So kind of around midyear, we will then -- the only last remaining item to restart as the HF Alky at Superior, which will start in early Q3. And that will have all of the asset running. But even before that, we should see our crude rate through that asset increase to near full capacity. So things are progressing as per plan. The market is constructive to de-inventory and mechanically, the refinery is running all the units with the exception of the HF Alky at this point.

因此，大約在年中，我們將在蘇必利爾作為 HF Alky 重新啟動唯一的最後一個項目，該項目將於第三季初啟動。這將使所有資產運作起來。但即使在此之前，我們也應該看到我們的原油價格透過資產增加至接近滿載。所以事情正在按計劃進行。市場有利於去庫存和機械化，煉油廠目前正在運行除 HF Alky 之外的所有裝置。

Great. I appreciate that color and context. Maybe staying with the downstream and maybe a little bit of a follow-on to the entire TMX situation. Obviously, (inaudible) narrow some of the feedstock costs to increase with respect to the refining operations. Can you talk towards some of the initiatives that you touched on a little bit at the Investor Day and maybe where that could go looking forward in terms of improving realizations on refined product and strengthening margin just again, now that you're operating all three of those refineries?

偉大的。我很欣賞這種顏色和背景。也許留在下游，也許是整個 TMX 情況的後續。顯然，（聽不清楚）煉油作業中原料成本的增加減少。您能否談談您在投資者日談到的一些舉措，也許在改善精煉產品的實現和再次提高利潤方面，這些舉措可以展望哪些方向，既然您正在運營這三個業務那些煉油廠？

Sure. Well, maybe I'll start there, Dennis. I mean there's 3 real levers to refining economics and the first and the biggest is getting the best and the right and the cheapest feedstock into your refineries. So as you know, the refineries that we own and operate are typically heavy oil refineries. And those heavy oil differentials narrowing will be negative for the refineries by and large. The offset obviously comes in our -- or upstream, sorry, where we realize the value of that. And that was always part of the integrated model. So for example, when we take the upgrade or down for turnaround this quarter, we're doing that at a time of very low differentials. So the economic impact of that is actually quite muted as we take most of that diluted bitumen to market.

當然。好吧，也許我會從這裡開始，丹尼斯。我的意思是，煉油經濟有 3 個真正的槓桿，第一個也是最大的槓桿就是為煉油廠提供最好、最適合、最便宜的原料。如您所知，我們擁有和經營的煉油廠通常是重油煉油廠。整體而言，重油價差的縮小將對煉油廠產生負面影響。偏移量顯然來自我們的——或者上游，抱歉，我們意識到了它的價值。這始終是整合模型的一部分。例如，當我們在本季度進行升級或下調以實現週轉時，我們是在差異非常小的時候進行的。因此，當我們將大部分稀釋瀝青推向市場時，對經濟的影響實際上相當小。

The other big area that we continue to work on is the placement of products, and we continue to push farther and farther into the eastern block of PADD II. We see that as a highly prospective area. And then ultimately, as we've talked about getting product into PADD I and into Canada is just something that we are actively looking to explore and do through time.

我們繼續努力的另一個大領域是產品的佈局，我們繼續向PADD II的東部區塊推進得越來越遠。我們認為這是一個極具前景的領域。最終，正如我們所討論的，將產品引入 PADD I 和加拿大，這只是我們一直在積極探索和做的事情。

Third area that we're looking at is our cost control and making sure that we have minimized our capital and operating costs in the refineries.

我們關注的第三個領域是我們的成本控制，並確保我們最大限度地減少煉油廠的資本和營運成本。

Reliability today takes precedent over really trying to grind out the last nickel of our operating cost, but it's something that we continue to look at on a day-to-day basis. So as we kind of go forward, what you should see from us are increasingly better levels of reliability across our refining fleet through time and better profitability that comes with that as we optimize the commercial part of the operation over the top of that. The key for us really is the reliability that allows that commercial optimization to happen through time. And I think Q1 is probably the start of something that we see a strong continuing trend going forward.

如今，可靠性比真正努力耗盡營運成本的最後一分錢更重要，但這是我們每天都會繼續關注的問題。因此，隨著我們的前進，您應該從我們身上看到的是，隨著時間的推移，我們的煉油船隊的可靠性水平越來越高，並且隨著我們優化運營的商業部分，隨之而來的是更好的獲利能力。對我們來說，真正的關鍵是可靠性，使商業優化能夠隨著時間的推移而發生。我認為第一季可能是我們看到未來強勁持續趨勢的開始。

And your next question comes from the line of Menno Hulshof from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Menno Hulshof。

I'll start with a follow-up question to Greg's question on TMX. Where do things stand in terms of ongoing toll discussions? And what is your best guess in terms of when all of this gets resolved and potential outcomes?

我將首先提出 Greg 在 TMX 上提出的問題的後續問題。就正在進行的收費討論而言，事情進展如何？對於所有這些問題何時解決以及潛在的結果，您的最佳猜測是什麼？

Thanks for that question. Yes, it's an ongoing conversation. I think it's going to carry through the balance of this year, probably into Q1 from a timing perspective. So I think it's going to still takes some time. So coming back to -- I think everybody is kind of pleased to see the asset become available for everyone, that work to ultimately get to the final commercial construct. I would expect that to carry out the remainder of this year and potentially drift into the first quarter, even to the first half of next year probably before we finally get to closure on that.

謝謝你提出這個問題。是的，這是一個持續的對話。我認為它將貫穿今年的剩餘時間，從時間角度來看，可能會持續到第一季。所以我認為這還需要一些時間。因此，我認為每個人都很高興看到每個人都可以使用該資產，並努力最終實現最終的商業結構。我預計這將在今年剩餘時間進行，並可能延續到第一季度，甚至可能會持續到明年上半年，然後我們才能最終解決這個問題。

Terrific. And then the follow-up is on the -- I think I know the answer to this, but -- so I'm just looking for confirmation. Just on the comp position of the current asset portfolio, my understanding is that the portfolio is fairly cored up. But is there any potential for smaller divestitures over the coming quarters? Or is that still not a priority for the moment?

了不起。然後後續行動是——我想我知道這個問題的答案，但是——所以我只是在尋找確認。就目前資產組合的構成而言，我的理解是該投資組合相當核心。但未來幾季是否有可能進行規模較小的資產剝離？或者說這仍然不是目前的優先事項？

Yes. I think, Menno, we've been really clear that we are really focused on our base business over the next while. You're quite right. We quite like the asset base that we've got. And we are focused on the improvements we're making in the downstream together with the growth in the upstream with the projects that we laid out at Investor Day. So we've got our plates full over the next few months, and we're just looking forward to executing on what we think is a pretty robust suite of activities.

是的。我認為，門諾，我們已經非常清楚，我們在接下來的一段時間內將真正專注於我們的基礎業務。你說得很對。我們非常喜歡我們擁有的資產基礎。我們專注於下游的改進以及上游的成長以及我們在投資者日推出的項目。因此，我們在接下來的幾個月裡已經忙完了，我們只是期待著執行我們認為相當強大的一系列活動。

And your next question comes from the line of John Royall from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾。

So you gave some color on Superior. But in terms of your other two operated refineries, can you talk about utilization. I think you're a bit below your target ranges for the year at both Toledo and Lima. And I know there's a little maintenance in the quarter, but anything to call out there in general, just in terms of getting to those targets near term?

所以你給了Superior一些色彩。但就您另外兩家營運的煉油廠而言，您能談談利用率嗎？我認為托萊多和利馬今年的目標範圍都略低於目標範圍。我知道本季會有一些維護工作，但總的來說，就近期實現這些目標而言，有什麼需要注意的嗎？

John, Keith here. It was a really interesting quarter, as John talked about in his opening remarks, the low crack spread persisted into January. And so we actually reduced run rates at the start of the quarter. And then obviously, as the market balanced in February 1, we were really happy with the performance of the refineries as they ramped up to max capacity and capture that crack spread.

約翰，基斯在這裡。這是一個非常有趣的季度，正如約翰在開場白中談到的那樣，低裂解價差一直持續到一月份。因此，我們實際上在本季初就降低了運行率。顯然，隨著 2 月 1 日市場平衡，我們對煉油廠的表現非常滿意，因為它們提高了最大產能並捕捉了裂解價差。

So I wouldn't read too much into it in the first quarter. We do have some maintenance coming in the back end of the year at Lima. But overall, we're pretty happy with the performance in the assets. And as John indicated on a previous question, our sole focus is on continuing the reliability and the margin capture and the profitability of these assets and running them safely and reliably. And we're seeing quarter-over-quarter improvement there, manifesting itself in the best throughput the company has had since kind of the merger back in 2021 and Q1 2024. So pretty happy with the progress, starting to see the progress, and we should expect that, that will just continue quarter-over-quarter.

所以我不會在第一季對其進行太多解讀。我們確實會在今年年底在利馬進行一些維護工作。但總的來說，我們對資產的表現非常滿意。正如約翰在上一個問題中指出的那樣，我們唯一的重點是繼續確保這些資產的可靠性、利潤捕獲和盈利能力，並安全可靠地運行它們。我們看到那裡的季度環比改善，體現在該公司自 2021 年和 2024 年第一季度合併以來的最佳吞吐量。持續下去。

Great. And then on the base dividend, this is a pretty chunky hike you took today and well ahead of the pace that I think you would need to hit that high 20s per quarter level that you show in your slides by 2028. Was the idea to kind of front-load the bigger increases and slow it to kind of a low double-digit annual rate from here? Just trying to think about how you're thinking about the base dividend from here?

偉大的。然後就基本股息而言，這是您今天採取的相當大的漲幅，遠遠領先於我認為到 2028 年您需要達到幻燈片中顯示的每季度 20 多美元的高水平的步伐。成長並從這裡放慢到較低的兩位數年增長率？只是想想您如何看待這裡的基本股息？

John, it's Kam. So I think the principles around what we discussed at Investor Day haven't changed. We've got, obviously, high confidence in achieving our debt target in the foreseeable future. I think we laid out our 5-year business plan at Investor Day that has a substantial amount of growth starting in 2025 in earnest and moving up towards 2020.

約翰，我是卡姆。所以我認為我們在投資者日討論的原則沒有改變。顯然，我們對在可預見的未來實現債務目標充滿信心。我認為我們在投資者日制定了 5 年業務計劃，該計劃從 2025 年開始認真實現大幅增長，並向 2020 年邁進。

But that -- the way you should think about the base dividend is, number one, it is absolutely anchored to low commodity prices in that sort of $45 WTI range. It's a level of dividend we view as a commitment and I'd say we've left ourselves lots of room to continue to grow that dividend, I'd say, comfortably in double digits going into the future here. So the increase this year is I think it's a reflection of the confidence in our plan. It's a reflection of where the balance sheet is and continue to anchor to bottom of the cycle.

但是，你應該考慮基本股息的方式是，第一，它絕對與 45 美元的 WTI 範圍內的低商品價格掛鉤。我們將這種股息水準視為一種承諾，我想說，我們已經為自己留下了很大的空間，可以繼續增加股息，我想說，未來可以輕鬆地以兩位數增長。所以今年的成長我認為反映了我們對計劃的信心。它反映了資產負債表的狀況，並將繼續錨定在週期的底部。

And your next question comes from the line of Patrick O'Rourke from ATB Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 ATB Capital Markets 的 Patrick O'Rourke。

Just for sort of on the oil sands unit, I think you touched on shifting some of the maintenance into Q2 for Christina Lake there. When I look at the schedule, looks like a little shifted into Q4. Maybe if you could sort of unpack the changes in the maintenance schedule for the oil sands, give us a little bit of color on that here.

就油砂裝置而言，我認為您提到將克里斯蒂娜湖的部分維護工作轉移到第二季。當我查看時間表時，看起來有點轉移到了第四季度。也許如果你能解開油砂維護計畫的變化，請在這裡給我們一些解釋。

Yes, Patrick, it's Keith here. No real overall change in the annual impact from the outage. We're just able to break up the outage into two different chunks. So we're going to take a little bit of a slowdown here in Q2 at Christina Lake and then finish the turnaround in Q3. And some of that turnaround carries into the first part of Q4. So all you're seeing is a little bit different phasing than we originally thought, but overall impacts are the same as we originally put in our guidance. So -- and that's really it for the oil sands. We have some small outages in Lloyd Thermal, but in general, the rest of the oil sands are running full out for the rest of the year.

是的，派崔克，我是基斯。停電造成的年度影響並沒有真正的整體變化。我們只能將中斷分成兩個不同的部分。因此，我們將在第二季度在克里斯蒂娜湖放慢一些速度，然後在第三季完成轉變。其中一些轉變延續到了第四季的第一部分。因此，您所看到的階段與我們最初想像的略有不同，但整體影響與我們最初在指導中提出的相同。所以——這就是油砂的情況。勞埃德熱能公司（Lloyd Thermal）出現了一些小規模的停電，但總體而言，今年剩餘時間其餘的油砂都已耗盡。

Okay. And I know you sort of had a lot of questions on the return of capital framework thinking on the dividend, et cetera, here. You put sort of the slide in the deck on the change that you've made here. In Scenario 2, where the net debt is below $4 billion, you still return the $900 million, just using the scenario here. Just wondering what would drive this? Because I think working capital build and release kind of equals zero over time, would there be a scenario where you would have to actually return excess free funds, the target return in excess of that to kind of level set to $4 billion?

好的。我知道您對資本回報框架、股息等問題有很多疑問。您將投影片放在投影片中，介紹您在此所做的變更。在情境 2 中，淨債務低於 40 億美元，您仍然返還 9 億美元，只需使用此處的場景即可。只是想知道是什麼推動了這一點？因為我認為隨著時間的推移，營運資本的建立和釋放幾乎為零，是否會出現這樣的情況：您必須實際返還多餘的自由資金，目標回報超過該水平，達到 40 億美元的水平？

Yes. It's a good question, Patrick. So I think number one, I guess, what hasn't changed is we will do everything we need to do to protect the balance sheet at that $4 billion level. And you're right. The fluctuations you see quarter-by-quarter, around $4 billion will largely be influenced by working capital to foreign exchange and other minor things. So you're right, the way that we've outlined it is above $4 billion, we'll take -- we'll hold back the portion that we're above and put it back on the balance sheet below $4 billion we would pay out 100%.

是的。這是個好問題，派崔克。所以我認為第一，我想，沒有改變的是我們將採取一切必要措施來保護資產負債表在 40 億美元的水平。你是對的。你看到的每個季度的波動，大約 40 億美元，很大程度上將受到外匯流動資金和其他次要因素的影響。所以你是對的，我們概述的金額高於 40 億美元，我們將保留高於 40 億美元的部分，並將其放回資產負債表中，低於 40 億美元。

But I think as we move forward, depending on what those fluctuations are in working capital, I would say we do have the discretion to adjust accordingly, and that could mean going slightly above 100%. It could be meaning being below. But I would say the key for us is -- which is different than today is we've got a lot of rigidity in our structure today around returns. This gives us flexibility to manage both the debt. And if we see opportunity to go slightly above 100%, I wouldn't rule it out. It's just I'd say the minimum level would be 100% unless we're below $4 billion.

但我認為，隨著我們前進，根據營運資金的波動，我們確實可以酌情進行相應調整，這可能意味著略高於 100%。這可能意味著在下面。但我想說，對我們來說關鍵是——這與今天不同的是，我們今天的回報結構有許多剛性。這使我們能夠靈活地管理這兩項債務。如果我們看到略高於 100% 的機會，我不會排除這種可能性。我只是想說，除非我們的資金低於 40 億美元，否則最低水準將是 100%。

Your next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Manav Gupta。

So if you look at last year, you were off to a slightly tougher start on their upstream and that resulted in your coming slightly below the midpoint of the guidance in the upstream segment. And knowing you guys, you always try for midpoint or above the midpoint, in fact, towards the top end. So this year, you are off to a much stronger start. So should we assume that for 2024, at this point, things are looking where you could actually go and hit the top end of your guidance in Upstream?

因此，如果你看看去年，你會發現上游業務的開局稍微艱難，這導致你的業績略低於上游細分市場指導的中點。了解你們，你們總是試著達到中點或中點以上，事實上，朝著頂端。所以今年，你會有一個更強的開端。那麼，我們是否應該假設，到 2024 年，此時，事情正在尋找您實際上可以去哪裡並達到上游指導的上限？

Yes. I'm not sure we're going to pinpoint where we are within the range that we've already given you for guidance. But we feel very comfortable in the guidance that we've given you, Manav. And you're quite right, the upstream has operated really, really well over the last 3 or 4 quarters. The downtick that you saw in Q1 of 2023 was really due to the pacing and staging of our capital program. but we won't see that kind of gap this year.

是的。我不確定我們是否會在已經為您提供指導的範圍內確定我們所處的位置。但我們對給你的指導感到非常滿意，馬納夫。你說得非常對，上游在過去的三、四個季度裡運作得非常非常好。您在 2023 年第一季看到的下降實際上是由於我們資本計劃的節奏和階段造成的。但今年我們不會看到這種差距。

So Keith mentioned, we've got a turnaround of Christina that we've scheduled for the third quarter, and we need to do a good job of that we are very pleased with the production that we've seen from the upstream. It's been very strong. And as everybody knows, that's really the backbone of this company. So having it perform at those levels is something that we're very pleased with. But I'm not sure we're ready to tighten that guidance quite yet. I think it's still pretty early days, but we're very pleased with where we are.

基斯提到，我們計劃在第三季對克里斯蒂娜進行週轉，我們需要做好這項工作，我們對上游的生產感到非常滿意。它已經非常強大了。眾所周知，這確實是這家公司的支柱。因此，我們對它能夠達到這些水平感到非常滿意。但我不確定我們是否已經準備好收緊這項指導。我認為現在還為時過早，但我們對目前的情況感到非常滿意。

Perfect. My quick follow-up on the downstream is your per unit operating cost in the U.S. is now trending down. It's like almost $12 and I'm trying to wonder, as you start pushing towards 90% plus utilization, right? How much lower can you bring this? Can you push this towards closer to $10 or $11 on a per unit basis, the operating cost?

完美的。我對下游的快速跟進是，你們在美國的單位營運成本現在呈下降趨勢。這大約是 12 美元，我想知道，當您開始推動利用率超過 90% 時，對嗎？你能把這個降低多少？您能否將每單位營運成本推向 10 美元或 11 美元？

Manav, I think we talked a little bit about our focus on reliability. And with improved reliability, you do see 2 things. Obviously, your denominator increases with higher throughput but also your unplanned, unscheduled and reactive maintenance goes down. So those 2 things we do think will help us start moving to the range that you've alluded to. We made big steps between 2023 and 2024 to get there.

馬納夫，我想我們討論了我們對可靠性的關注。隨著可靠性的提高，您確實會看到兩件事。顯然，您的分母隨著吞吐量的增加而增加，但計劃外、計劃外和被動維護也會減少。因此，我們確實認為這兩件事將幫助我們開始進入您提到的範圍。我們在 2023 年至 2024 年間邁出了一大步來實現這一目標。

We do have to do some of this maintenance activity in the turnaround cycles in order to drive that further improvement in reliability, but that is our focus that, coupled with improving margin capture and the commercial profitability of the asset. So we are focused on that. We have plans and the plans are underway and starting to show fruition. So pretty excited.

我們確實必須在周轉週期中進行一些維護活動，以推動可靠性的進一步提高，但這是我們的重點，同時提高資產的利潤捕獲和商業盈利能力。所以我們專注於此。我們有計劃，計劃正在進行中並開始取得成果。非常興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾梅塔。

This is Nicolette Slusser on for Neil Mehta. So just the first question on the Upstream. I wanted to ask about some of the growth and optimization projects in the business. Can you just talk about the factors underway this year for Christina Lake. And then as well the Foster Creek optimization and factors over the next few years, we should be on the lookout for ahead of that fully arranged production by the end of 2027.

我是尼可萊特·斯魯瑟 (Nicolette Slusser) 為尼爾·梅塔 (Neil Mehta) 配音。這就是上游的第一個問題。我想詢問業務中的一些成長和優化項目。您能談談克里斯蒂娜·萊克今年發生的一些因素嗎？然後，以及 Foster Creek 的優化和未來幾年的因素，我們應該在 2027 年底之前全面安排生產。

Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll just step back to our Investor Day where we laid out plans for upstream growth of about 150,000 barrels a day over the next 3 to 4 years. So narrowing in specifically on Christina Lake, the 20,000 to 25,000 barrels a day comes from tying in our Narrows Lake resource back into the Christina Lake asset.

謝謝你的提問。也許我會回到我們的投資者日，我們制定了未來 3 到 4 年上游產量約每天 150,000 桶的計劃。因此，具體到克里斯蒂娜湖，每天 20,000 至 25,000 桶的產量來自於將我們的 Narrows Lake 資源重新納入克里斯蒂娜湖資產。

And to do that, we're going to be putting in new pads, which are well underway and putting in a pipeline that ties that resource back. And that pipeline is nearing mechanical completion by the year -- by end of this year, we should be hydro testing the line and putting it into service early next year, which will allow us to bring steam up to that resource and start steaming those pads for the production that will come on in the back end of 2025.

為此，我們將投入新的基地，這些基地正在順利進行中，並建立​​一條將資源連結起來的管道。該管道到今年將接近機械完工——到今年年底，我們應該對該管道進行水力測試並於明年初投入使用，這將使我們能夠為該資源提供蒸汽並開始對這些墊進行蒸汽處理將於2025年底開始製作。

So things are progressing as expected, on plan and on schedule. With regards to Foster Creek, it's a little later in time in the fact that both projects, the Foster Creek debottleneck, which will add steam capacity to foster is scheduled to come on in the mid 2026 time frame.

所以事情正在按預期、按計劃、按計劃地進展。就 Foster Creek 而言，時間稍晚一些，因為這兩個項目（Foster Creek 去瓶頸項目將增加福斯特的蒸汽容量）計劃於 2026 年中期啟動。

In addition, we're also adding a naming close unit to that asset, which will help drive down our unit OpEx almost $0.75 a barrel. So those projects are progressing well. They're underway. A lot of activity will happen through this year in 2025 for startup in 2026. Sunrise is another growth opportunity for us. We have our first new pad since 2020 online and producing. We have a couple of additional pads coming on stream at the back end of the year. That really sustains our production. And then we have new pads coming on in 2025 as well that allows us to start growing production.

此外，我們還為該資產增加了一個命名封閉單位，這將有助於將我們的單位營運支出降低近 0.75 美元/桶。所以這些專案進展順利。他們正在進行中。到 2025 年，為了 2026 年的啟動，今年將會發生很多活動。自 2020 年以來，我們的第一款新墊已上線並投入生產。我們還有幾個額外的焊盤將在今年年底投產。這確實維持了我們的生產。然後我們還將在 2025 年推出新的墊片，使我們能夠開始增加產量。

The steam capacity is there. It's a matter of fully utilizing our capacity to generate that incremental 20,000 barrels a day of production. And then on the East Coast, we have our West White Rose project. So the SeaRose is off station going through its asset life extension, expect that back in the July time period and West White Rose project, we finished our last pour on the gravity-based structure in the first quarter. So that part of the project is complete. We're working towards mechanical completion and commissioning on the top side. All that gets made it up in 2025, and we commenced drilling and start seeing production in '26, ramping to peak production, 45,000 barrels a day in 2028.

蒸汽容量就在那裡。問題在於充分利用我們的產能來增加每天 20,000 桶的產量。然後在東海岸，我們有西白玫瑰計畫。因此，SeaRose 正在關閉，正在經歷其資產壽命延長，預計早在 7 月和 West White Rose 專案中，我們就在第一季度完成了基於重力的結構的最後一次澆築。這樣專案的這一部分就完成了。我們正在努力實現頂部的機械完工和調試。所有這些都將在 2025 年得到彌補，我們開始鑽探並在 26 年開始看到產量，並在 2028 年達到峰值產量，即每天 45,000 桶。

So all those projects are progressing well. And then I guess the last one I would talk about is our conventional heavy oil, where we've ramped up our rig activity and our drilling incremental wells and are starting to see the fruits of that labor with production growing from current base of around 20,000 barrels a day up to 40,000 barrels a day over the next 2 to 3 years.

所以所有這些項目都進展順利。然後我想我要談論的最後一個是我們的傳統重油，我們增加了鑽機活動和鑽探增量井，並開始看到勞動成果，產量在目前約 20,000 口的基礎上不斷增長未來2 至3 年內，每日產量將增加至40,000 桶。

Okay. Great. Very helpful context. And then a quick follow-up is just on offshore. So I understand from the release that production from White Rose and the Terranova fields is stored at a terminal prior to shipment which can then result in a timing difference between production and sales. So just wondering if there's any additional commentary on this phenomenon and how we should expect the phasing of the sales timing impacts as White Rose and Terra Nova production in Flex?

好的。偉大的。非常有幫助的背景。然後快速跟進就是在海上。因此，我從新聞稿中了解到，White Rose 和 Terranova 油田的產品在裝運前儲存在碼頭，這可能會導致生產和銷售之間的時間差異。所以只是想知道是否對這種現像有任何額外的評論，以及我們應該如何預期白玫瑰和 Terra Nova 在 Flex 中生產時對銷售時間影響的階段性？

Yes. I don't know that there's anything magical in that what we -- what can happen when you have relatively low levels of production like we did in the first quarter with the SeaRose being off-station and production at Terra Nova averaging about 7,000 barrels a day is the difference between the timing the oil is produced and moved to (inaudible) before it's ultimately sold.

是的。我不知道這有什麼神奇之處——當產量相對較低時會發生什麼，就像我們在第一季那樣，SeaRose 已停產，而 Terra Nova 的產量平均約為每年 7,000 桶天是石油生產和最終出售之前轉移（聽不清楚）的時間之間的差異。

So you do need to put yourself in a position where you built enough volume for a cargo and once you sell that cargo, you realize, obviously, the funds from it. So it's just a timing difference. It's nothing that's unique. But as we get more and more production on the East Coast with the West White Rose project coming on, that will become increasingly more ratable through time. But it's just a timing difference, and there's really nothing to see there.

因此，你確實需要讓自己處於一個位置，為貨物建立足夠的交易量，一旦你出售該貨物，你顯然會從中獲得資金。所以這只是時間上的差異。這沒什麼獨特的。但隨著西白玫瑰計畫的展開，我們在東海岸的產量越來越多，隨著時間的推移，它的評價將越來越高。但這只是時間上的差異，並沒有什麼好看的。

And your next question comes from the line of Dennis Fong from CIBC.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Dennis Fong。

Sorry, apologies for [brutally] getting back in the question queue. Keep us answering the previous question there at Sunrise. I was just hoping for a little bit more clarification there. With the 2025 well, is that enough to fully utilize like the 50,000 to 60,000 barrels a day of excess steam capacity at the facility? Or are there other kind of optimizations that you can do to improve production potentially beyond the 20,000 barrels a day?

抱歉，很抱歉[粗暴地]回到問題隊列。讓我們在日出時回答之前的問題。我只是希望那裡有更多的澄清。 2025 年的油井是否足以充分利用該設施每天 50,000 至 60,000 桶的過剩蒸汽產能？或者是否可以採取其他類型的最佳化來將產量提高到每天 20,000 桶以上？

Dennis, yes, thanks for the question. Right now, we're focused on kind of fully utilizing the steam capacity and installed capacity is around 210,000 barrels a day of steam capacity, and we're currently using kind of 160,000. So that's where that incremental production comes from.

丹尼斯，是的，謝謝你的提問。目前，我們的重點是充分利用蒸汽能力，裝置容量約為每天 21 萬桶蒸汽能力，目前我們正在使用 16 萬桶。這就是增量生產的來源。

But we are actually using the new Cenovus techniques as we put in these wells and we will evaluate kind of the SOR performance on utilizing that technique over time. And there is a potential that we could start seeing even more improved SOR relative to historical performance. And if that happens, then there might be some upside potential. But at this point, what's built into our numbers is really just fully utilizing the installed capacity and using that on the new wells that we're putting into place.

但我們實際上在這些井中使用了新的 Cenovus 技術，隨著時間的推移，我們將評估利用該技術的 SOR 性能。相對於歷史表現，我們有可能開始看到 SOR 進一步改善。如果發生這種情況，那麼可能會有一些上升潛力。但目前，我們的數字實際上只是充分利用裝置容量並將其用於我們正在建造的新井上。

Great. And then on Lloyd, I appreciate the comments at the very beginning there, John. talking about stronger pump utilization and uptime there. I'm just curious as to how sustainable you view this current level of production. Obviously, there's a good uptick on a quarter-over-quarter basis. I know there's kind of a focus on reaching further from central processing facilities, accessing kind of new areas of reservoir. I just wanted to see what maybe the production level could be on a go-forward basis from Lloyd thermal?

偉大的。然後關於勞埃德，我很欣賞一開始的評論，約翰。談論那裡更強的泵利用率和正常運行時間。我只是好奇您如何看待當前生產水平的可持續性。顯然，環比有良好的成長。我知道人們的重點是遠離中央處理設施，進入新的水庫區域。我只是想看看勞埃德熱力公司未來的生產水準可能會達到什麼水準？

Yes. I'm not going to write a check on Keith's behalf. He's looking at me. What I would tell you is this, Lloyd is a different reservoir than what we have at Foster and Christina. And over the last 3 years, we've learned a lot about producing at Lloydminster. And we continue to find opportunities to grow production at Lloyd. So I think we've taken a relatively conservative view sort of a P50 view as you -- if you will, is that where we think that production is going to be.

是的。我不會代表基斯寫支票。他正在看著我。我要告訴你的是，勞埃德是一個與我們福斯特和克里斯蒂娜不同的水庫。在過去的三年裡，我們在勞埃德明斯特學到了很多關於生產的知識。我們繼續尋找增加勞合社產量的機會。因此，我認為我們採取了相對保守的觀點，即 P50 觀點，如果你願意的話，我們認為生產將會在哪裡。

It's currently producing at a rate that would be higher than where we would have budgeted this year, but it's been there for some period of time. And the subsurface people, together with the operating people just continue to find opportunities to debottleneck, to drill wells differently, to operate the reservoirs differently, and it continues just kind of to surprise to the upside. So I wouldn't want to be in a position where I'd be telling you this is going to outperform the way it has over the course of the last few quarters. But what I would say is we just continue to find opportunities here that provide that kind of upside for us.

目前的生產速度將高於我們今年的預算，但它已經存在了一段時間。地下工作人員與操作人員一起繼續尋找機會來消除瓶頸，以不同的方式鑽井，以不同的方式操作油藏，而且這種情況繼續令人驚訝地上升。所以我不想告訴你這將超越過去幾季的表現。但我想說的是，我們只是繼續在這裡尋找機會，為我們提供這種優勢。

And our last question comes from the line of Chris Varcoe from Calgary Herald.

我們的最後一個問題來自《卡加利先驅報》的克里斯·瓦爾科 (Chris Varcoe)。

A question for John. John, just talking about Trans Mountain. Given that it took 13 years to get that project from its inception to completion, what does that tell you about Canada's ability to get major energy projects built like the pathways development?

問約翰一個問題。約翰，剛剛談論跨山。鑑於該計畫從啟動到完成花了 13 年時間，這說明加拿大有能力建造像道路開發這樣的大型能源計畫嗎？

What I would say, Chris, first of all, is that I think Drew mentioned this, and I wouldn't want to taint today with a discussion about the difficulty of getting projects built because this is a great day for Canada to get this pipeline up and running, get it producing, and the people of Canada are going to see the benefit for a long period of time in terms of increased taxes and royalties and the like.

克里斯，首先，我想說的是，我認為德魯提到了這一點，我不想今天討論建設項目的困難，因為這是加拿大獲得這條管道的偉大日子啟動並運行，使其生產，加拿大人民將在很長一段時間內看到稅收和特許權使用費增加等方面的好處。

I think as a nation we suffer, and I don't think I'm saying anything that people don't already know from lower and decreasing productivity, and we need to find ways to get major projects built to get infrastructure built to the benefit of all Canadians. And I think we would all realize that 13 years is far too long for a project of this national importance to get built. And I think that's something that everybody understands.

我認為作為一個國家，我們正在遭受苦難，我認為我所說的並不是人們不知道的生產力下降和不斷下降的情況，我們需要找到方法來建設重大項目，使基礎設施建設受益所有加拿大人。我想我們都會認識到，對於一個具有國家重要性的計畫來說，13 年的時間太長了。我認為這是每個人都理解的事情。

Given your own company's expectations for growth and other growth estimates out of the Western Canadian Basin, do you think Western Canada is going to need more pipeline capacity? And when do you think that might be -- or given the challenges that you just talked about, do you think this is the last export pipeline of a major size that gets built?

鑑於您自己的公司對加拿大西部盆地成長的預期和其他成長估計，您認為加拿大西部將需要更多的管道容量嗎？您認為這可能是什麼時候——或者考慮到您剛才談到的挑戰，您認為這是最後一條大型出口管道建成嗎？

Yes. I think as an industry, we have a history of filling up excess egress, and I think that will happen through time. I've seen various estimates of when that's going to happen. Some suggest within 2 years, others within 5. I think we would be closer to the upper range of that in terms of our thinking. It is increasingly difficult to build pipelines in this country, and it wouldn't surprise me if this was the last pipeline. But the reality is we have a tremendous resource here in Canada and we produce our oil in my view, more sustainably than probably anywhere else in the world. And if we were in a position where as a nation, we decided to take that to market, we should be building more pipelines.

是的。我認為作為一個行業，我們有填補多餘出口的歷史，而且我認為隨著時間的推移，這種情況將會發生。我看到了何時發生這種情況的各種估計。有些人建議在 2 年內，其他人建議在 5 年內。在這個國家建造管道越來越困難，如果這是最後一條管道，我不會感到驚訝。但現實是，加拿大擁有龐大的資源，而且在我看來，我們生產石油的方式可能比世界其他任何地方都更永續。如果我們作為一個國家決定將其推向市場，我們應該建造更多的管道。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back to Mr. John McKenzie for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想請約翰‧麥肯齊先生致閉幕詞。

Yes. Listen, thank you very much for your interest in the company today on behalf of the management team, the Board of Directors and the staff here at Cenovus. We really appreciate your interest and support in the company. So have a terrific day, and thank you again.

是的。聽著，非常感謝您今天代表 Cenovus 的管理團隊、董事會和員工對公司的關注。我們非常感謝您對公司的興趣和支持。祝您有個愉快的一天，再次感謝您。

Thank you. That concludes our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may all disconnect.

謝謝。我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。你們都可以斷開連線。