Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Cenovus Energy's third-quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder this call is being recorded.

各位早安。感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Cenovus Energy 2025 年第三季業績電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒您，本次通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Patrick Read, Vice President, Investor Relations and Internal Audit. Please go ahead, Mr. Read.

現在我將會議交給投資者關係和內部審計副總裁帕特里克·里德先生。請繼續，里德先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cenovus' 2025 third-quarter results conference call. On the call this morning are CEO, Jon McKenzie; and CFO, Kam Sandhar, will take you through our results. Then we'll open the line for John, Kam, and other members of Cenovus' management team to take your questions.

謝謝接線生。各位早安，歡迎參加Cenovus 2025年第三季業績電話會議。今天早上參加電話會議的有執行長 Jon McKenzie；財務長 Kam Sandhar，他們將向大家介紹我們的業績。然後我們將開通電話，讓約翰、卡姆以及 Cenovus 管理團隊的其他成員回答您的問題。

Before getting started, I'll refer you to our advisories located at the end of today's news release. These describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures and oil and gas terms referred to today. They also outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. Additional information is available on Cenovus' annual MD&A and our most recent AIF and Form 40-F.

在開始之前，請參閱今天新聞稿末尾的注意事項。這些描述了今天提到的前瞻性資訊、非GAAP指標以及石油和天然氣術語。他們也概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素和假設。有關 Cenovus 的更多信息，請參閱其年度 MD&A 報告以及我們最新的 AIF 和 40-F 表格。

And as a reminder, all figures we referenced on the call today will be in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. You can view our results at cenovus.com. For the question-and-answer portion of the call, please keep the one question with a maximum of one follow-up.

再次提醒大家，除非另有說明，我們今天電話會議上提到的所有數字均以加幣為單位。您可以在cenovus.com查看我們的結果。在電話會議的問答環節，請只提出一個問題，最多可以提出後續問題。

You're welcome to rejoin the queue for any other follow-up questions you may have. We also ask that you hold off on any detailed modeling questions, you can follow up on these directly with our Investor Relations team after the call.

如果您還有其他後續問題，歡迎重新排隊。我們也請您暫緩提出任何關於建模的詳細問題，您可以在通話結束後直接與我們的投資者關係團隊聯繫。

I will now turn the call over to Jon. Jon, please go ahead.

現在我將把通話交給喬恩。喬恩，請繼續。

Great. And thank you, Patrick, and good morning to everybody. To begin the call, I'd like to recognize some of our employees for safely achieving a number of critical accomplishments and milestones over the quarter. Coming into this year, we set some very ambitious goals for the company in 2025 and our execution has been near flawless. We'll make these achievements even more satisfying is that we have remained focused on the safety of our people, the communities in which we operate in the environment.

偉大的。謝謝你，派崔克，大家早安。首先，我想表揚一下我們的一些員工，他們在本季安全地完成了許多重要的成就和里程碑。今年年初，我們為公司在 2025 年設定了一些非常雄心勃勃的目標，而我們的執行也近乎完美。更令我們感到欣慰的是，我們始終專注於員工安全、我們營運所在社區的安全以及我們所處環境的安全。

Now for example, at the West White Rose project, we completed some intricate and critical work in the third quarter that included installing the top sides on the gravity-based structure, making subsea connections at 120 meters below the ocean surface and completing a turnaround of the CROs FPSO.

例如，在西白玫瑰計畫中，我們在第三季完成了一些複雜而關鍵的工作，包括安裝重力式結構的上部側面、在海面以下 120 公尺處進行海底連接以及完成 CRO FPSO 的檢修。

These operations require thousands of offshore hours were completed in one of the most hostile operating environments, the North Atlantic and I'm incredibly proud of our people and their continued commitment to our core values as we meet our goals and milestones.

這些作業需要在北大西洋最惡劣的作業環境中完成數千小時的海上作業，我為我們的員工感到無比自豪，他們始終堅守我們的核心價值觀，幫助我們實現目標和里程碑。

Now before I get to the results, I'd also like to take a moment to speak about the MEG acquisition. As many of you are aware, MEG shareholder vote, which was scheduled to take place yesterday has been postponed to next Thursday, November 6. The delay is to give time for MEG to respond to a regulatory inquiry related to MEG's consideration of the amended terms of the transaction-related matters.

在公佈結果之前，我還想花一點時間談談 MEG 的收購情況。如大家所知，原定於昨天舉行的MEG股東投票已延至下週四，即11月6日舉行。此次延期是為了給 MEG 時間回應監管機構關於 MEG 考慮修改交易相關條款的詢問。

The inquiries associated with a complaint raised by a former employee of MEG, who holds approximately 4,000 shares. We do not expect this inquiry to have any impact on the transaction. There continues to be very strong support for the transaction for MEG shareholders with 86% of the shares voted in favor of the transaction. We expect the vote to proceed as planned next week.

與 MEG 一名前員工提出的投訴相關的調查，該員工持有約 4,000 股 MEG 股票。我們預計此次調查不會對交易產生任何影響。MEG股東對這項交易的支持依然非常強烈，86%的股份投票贊成這項交易。我們預計下週的投票將按計劃進行。

Cenovus remains resolute in our commitment to this transaction. When completed, this acquisition combined with the organic growth we are already delivering across our business is transformational to this company. Subject to shareholder and court approval, we anticipate closing this transaction in November and welcoming the MEG team and moving quickly to capture the identified synergies and beyond.

Cenovus 仍然堅定不移地致力於完成這項交易。收購完成後，加上我們公司目前業務的自然成長，將為公司帶來改變。在獲得股東和法院批准後，我們預計將於 11 月完成交易，歡迎 MEG 團隊加入，並迅速採取行動，以實現已確定的協同效應以及更多目標。

Now turning to the quarter. We've spoken about 2025 as being an inflection point for our company, where the investments we've made in our people, our assets and in the growth of our business start to come through. The third quarter results are a proof point of more to come. We achieved the highest ever upstream production of 833,000 BOE per day, highlighted by the best ever performance of our oil sands assets which contributed 643,000 barrels per day.

現在來看季度部分。我們曾說過，2025 年是我們公司的轉捩點，屆時我們對員工、資產和業務成長所做的投資將開始產生回報。第三季業績證明未來會有更好的表現。我們實現了有史以來最高的上游日產量，達到 833,000 桶油當量，其中油砂資產表現最為出色，日產量達到 643,000 桶。

At Christina Lake, production was 252,000 barrels a day in the third quarter, supported by the ramp-up of volumes from Narrows Lake. In the quarter, we brought on three well pads at Narrows Lake, which are continuing to ramp up as expected. We expect Christina Lake to sustain or exceed its current production rates in the coming quarters.

在納羅斯湖油田產量增加的支持下，克里斯蒂娜湖油田第三季日產量為 252,000 桶。本季度，我們在納羅斯湖新增了三個井場，這些井場正如預期繼續逐步增產。我們預計克里斯蒂娜湖水庫在未來幾季將維持或超過目前的產量水準。

At Foster Creek, we achieved production record of 215,000 barrels per day in the quarter. As part of the Foster Creek optimization project, we brought on four new steam generators online in July and they're already supporting consistently higher production from the asset, well ahead of schedule.

在福斯特溪，我們本季實現了日產 21.5 萬桶的產量紀錄。作為福斯特溪優化計畫的一部分，我們在 7 月投入使用了四台新的蒸汽發生器，它們已經提前為該資產提供了持續更高的產量支持。

Commissioning of the water treatment and deoiling facilities is underway and approaching completion. New pads will be brought online in the first quarter of 2026. We have effectively brought forward a portion of the growth from this optimization project that was really not expected until 2026. We expect to build on the high level of production in the coming quarters as we fully utilize the steam capacity and complete the project.

水處理和除油設施的調試工作正在進行中，即將完成。新款墊子將於 2026 年第一季投入使用。我們有效地提前實現了部分原本預計要到 2026 年才能實現的最佳化專案成長。我們預計在接下來的幾個季度裡，隨著蒸汽產能的充分利用和項目的完成，產量將保持在高水準。

At Sunrise, we executed a turnaround in September and production was 52,000 barrels a day in the quarter, with turnarounds at both sides of the plant completed in the year and followed by an efficient ramp-up, we expect Sunrise to exit the year around 60,000 barrels a day. The first of the new well pads from the East development area at Sunrise is planned for start-up in early 2026.

在 Sunrise，我們在 9 月進行了檢修，該季度日產量為 52,000 桶。隨著工廠兩側檢修工作在年內完成，並隨後高效地提高產量，我們預計 Sunrise 到年底日產量將達到 60,000 桶左右。Sunrise 東部開發區的第一個新井場計劃於 2026 年初投產。

Development of the high-quality reservoir in this region will deliver the next phase of growth from the asset over the next two years. The Lloydminster Thermals produced 96,000 barrels per day in the quarter, the assets have performed very well despite 18,000 barrels of production from Rush Lake facilities remaining shut in as strong performance from the other assets in the region offset some of the lost volumes.

未來兩年，該地區優質油藏的開發將為該資產帶來下一階段的成長。勞埃德明斯特熱油田本季日產量為 96,000 桶，儘管拉什湖油田仍有 18,000 桶的產量停產，但由於該地區其他油田的強勁表現抵消了部分損失，該油田的整體表現仍然非常出色。

At Rush Lake, we have confirmed the integrity of the asset and are working towards a phased restart of production prior to the end of the year, subject to approval by the regulator. We expect to safely ramp up production through 2026. At West White Rose, I'm pleased to say the commissioning is nearly complete and there has been an extraordinary achievement by everybody involved, and we will be drilling from the platform prior to year-end and seeing first oil in the second quarter of next year.

在拉什湖，我們已經確認了資產的完整性，並正在努力爭取在年底前分階段恢復生產，但需獲得監管機構的批准。我們預計到 2026 年將安全地提高產量。我很高興地宣布，西白玫瑰油田的調試工作已接近完成，所有參與人員都取得了非凡的成就，我們將在年底前從該平台開始鑽井，並於明年第二季度迎來第一批石油。

Now moving to the Downstream. We had an excellent third quarter. The Canadian refining business continues to run well with crude throughput of 105,000 barrels a day and utilization rate of about 98%. In US refining, we delivered record production with crude throughput of 605,000 barrels per day and utilization rate of 99%.

現在轉到下游部分。我們第三季表現出色。加拿大煉油業務持續保持良好運營，原油日加工量為 105,000 桶，利用率約 98%。在美國煉油領域，我們實現了創紀錄的產量，原油日處理量達到 605,000 桶，利用率達到 99%。

Our assets ran as expected during the quarter with high rates of utilization and availability. And this in conjunction with seasonally higher -- or seasonally stronger crack spreads generated positive refunds flow for the business. Cost control in the downstream has been a focus area for the business, and we continue to see unit cost trend downward towards competitive benchmarks and with the sale of WRB, which closed at the end of the quarter, our downstream business is now fully owned, operated and within our control.

本季我們的資產運作符合預期，利用率和可用性都很高。而這與季節性上漲或季節性走強的裂解價差相結合，為企業帶來了正向退款流。下游成本控制一直是公司的重點領域，我們持續看到單位成本朝著競爭基準下降，隨著 WRB 的出售在本季度末完成，我們的下游業務現在完全由我們擁有、運營和控制。

Now I'll turn it over to Kam to walk through some of the financial results.

現在我將把麥克風交給卡姆，讓他來解讀一些財務表現。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, we generated $3 billion of operating margin and approximately $2.5 billion of adjusted funds flow. Operating margin in the Upstream was approximately $2.6 billion, an increase of around $450 million from the second quarter, driven by our strong operating performance and higher realized pricing in the oil sands.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家早安。第三季度，我們實現了 30 億美元的營業利潤和約 25 億美元的調整後資金流。上游業務的營業利潤約為 26 億美元，比第二季度增加了約 4.5 億美元，這主要得益於我們強勁的營運業績和油砂業務更高的實際售價。

Oil sands nonfuel operating costs of $9.65 per barrel decreased quarter-over-quarter due to lower turnaround activities and higher production volumes. We continue to make progress on reducing operating costs across the upstream business and expect to see further reductions as we bring on the West White Rose project, realize a full benefit the Foster Creek optimization project and continue to see steady ramp-up at Sunrise.

由於檢修活動減少和產量增加，油砂非燃料營運成本每桶下降 9.65 美元。我們在降低上游業務運營成本方面持續取得進展，隨著西白玫瑰項目的投產、福斯特溪優化項目效益的充分實現以及日出項目持續穩步提升，預計運營成本將進一步降低。

Our downstream business demonstrated strong performance in the quarter with operating margin of $364 million. This included $88 million of inventory holding losses and $38 million of turnaround expenses partially offset by a $67 million benefit related to the receipt of the small refinery exemption at Superior.

本季我們的下游業務表現強勁，營業利潤達 3.64 億美元。其中包括 8,800 萬美元的庫存持有損失和 3,800 萬美元的檢修費用，但因 Superior 獲得小型煉油廠豁免而獲得的 6,700 萬美元收益部分抵消了這些損失。

In the US refining per unit operating costs, excluding turnaround expenses were $9.67 a barrel, a decrease of $0.85 a barrel from the second quarter and over $3 a barrel relative to the same quarter last year. The reduction in OpEx was largely driven by performance from our operated assets which delivered operating cost of approximately $9.90 per barrel in the third quarter.

在美國，不包括檢修費用，煉油單位營運成本為每桶 9.67 美元，比第二季度下降了每桶 0.85 美元，比去年同期下降了每桶 3 美元以上。營運成本的降低主要得益於我們營運資產的良好表現，第三季營運成本約為每桶 9.90 美元。

Adjusted market capture for the US refining business was 65% in the quarter, this was supported by a capture rate of 69% from our operated assets, which benefited from the small refinery exemption at Superior and increased refined product exports from the dock at Toledo. The sale of our 50% interest in WRB refining closed at the end of the third quarter.

本季美國煉油業務的調整後市佔率為 65%，這得益於我們營運資產 69% 的市場份額，而這又得益於 Superior 小型煉油廠的豁免以及 Toledo 碼頭成品油出口的增加。我們在 WRB 煉油廠 50% 的股份出售交易已於第三季末完成。

In addition to the cash proceeds of $1.8 billion received on October 1, the transaction eliminated Cenovus' share of drawn credit facilities associated with the joint venture of $313 million, resulting in a total value received at $2.1 billion based on preliminary closing adjustments. Results from our US refining business will only include our operating assets beginning in the fourth quarter, and we have updated our 2025 guidance to reflect the sale of Wood River and Borger.

除了 10 月 1 日收到的 18 億美元現金收益外，該交易還消除了 Cenovus 在合資企業中已提取的 3.13 億美元信貸額度，根據初步結算調整，最終收到的總價值為 21 億美元。從第四季度開始，我們美國煉油業務的業績將僅包括我們的營運資產，我們已更新了 2025 年的業績指引，以反映 Wood River 和 Borger 的出售。

Capital investment of $1.2 billion was driven by a consistent level of sustaining activity across the business in addition to the continued advancement of our key growth projects -- with the West White Rose project now substantially complete, we continue to expect our growth capital to come down significantly in 2026.

12 億美元的資本投資得益於公司持續穩定的業務活動，以及我們關鍵成長項目的持續推進——隨著西白玫瑰計畫基本完成，我們繼續預計到 2026 年，我們的成長資本將大幅下降。

At the end of the third quarter, our net debt was approximately $5.3 billion prior to the receipt of the $1.8 billion of cash proceeds from the sale of WRB. We returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and share buybacks. We took the opportunity to allocate more capital to share repurchases in the third quarter following the announced sale of WRB.

第三季末，在收到出售 WRB 所得的 18 億美元現金之前，我們的淨債務約為 53 億美元。本季我們透過分紅和股票回購向股東返還了 13 億美元。在宣佈出售 WRB 之後，我們抓住機會在第三季分配更多資金用於股票回購。

This included the purchase of about 40 million shares at an average price of $2.75 per share. The total value of the share repurchase in the quarter was $918 million which is approximately $175 million higher than our excess free funds flow in the quarter. Subsequent to the quarter and through October 27, the company purchased another $409 million worth of shares or about 17 million shares.

這其中包括以每股 2.75 美元的平均價格購買約 4,000 萬股股票。本季股票回購總額為 9.18 億美元，比本季的超額自由資金流高出約 1.75 億美元。在本季結束後至 10 月 27 日，該公司又購買了價值 4.09 億美元的股票，約 1,700 萬股。

And as Jon noted, following the approval by MEG shareholders, we expect the acquisition of MEG Energy to close in November. Total consideration for the transaction is expected to be a split of 50% cash and 50% Cenovus shares. This equates to a maximum of approximately $3.8 billion in cash and the issuance of $160 million Cenovus shares on a fully pro rata basis.

正如 Jon 指出的那樣，在 MEG 股東批准後，我們預計對 MEG Energy 的收購將於 11 月完成。預計此交易的總對價將由 50% 的現金和 50% 的 Cenovus 股票組成。這相當於最多支付約 38 億美元現金，並以完全比例發行價值 1.6 億美元的 Cenovus 股票。

Pro forma, our balance sheet remains strong with less than 1 times net debt to cash flow. And going forward, we'll continue to be opportunistic with our share buybacks while living within the guidelines of our financial framework. As we head into 2026, our major projects are nearing completion and our growth capital is coming down.

依備考數據，我們的資產負債表依然穩健，淨債務與現金流量比不到 1 倍。展望未來，我們將繼續在財務框架的指導方針內，抓住機會進行股票回購。隨著我們邁入 2026 年，我們的主要項目即將完成，我們的成長資本正在減少。

Combined with the strength in our balance sheet, the business is positioned well to support our near-term growth plans and remain resilient even at the bottom of the cycle commodity price.

憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表，公司有能力支持我們近期的成長計劃，即使在商品價格週期性低迷時期也能保持韌性。

I'll now turn the call back to Jon for some closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給喬恩，請他做些總結發言。

Great. Thank you, Kam. As I mentioned earlier, we set some ambitious goals for ourselves and the company for this year, and I couldn't be more proud of the way our people have taken up the challenge. We've largely completed our growth projects and are seeing the benefits of higher production with more to come over the future quarters.

偉大的。謝謝你，卡姆。正如我之前提到的，我們為自己和公司設定了一些雄心勃勃的年度目標，我對我們的員工接受挑戰的方式感到無比自豪。我們的成長項目已基本完成，並開始享受更高產量的好處，未來幾季將有更多收益。

Our downstream business has been relentless in driving performance across the portfolio of assets and the sale of WRB gives us full operational, commercial and strategic control of our downstream business while monetizing our non-operated business at an attractive price. Our business is blessed with a deep inventory of development opportunities at low supply costs below $45 WTI and underpinned by a fortress balance sheet.

我們的下游業務一直不懈地推動著整個資產組合的業績成長，而 WRB 的出售使我們對下游業務擁有了全面的營運、商業和策略控制權，同時以有吸引力的價格將我們未經營的業務貨幣化。我們的業務擁有大量開發機會，供應成本低於每桶 45 美元的 WTI 原油，並且擁有穩健的資產負債表作為支撐。

We are focused on aligning our strategy, business plans and priorities and look forward to building on a quarter-over-quarter growth and value for the foreseeable future. And with that, I'm happy to answer your questions.

我們專注於調整策略、業務計劃和優先事項，並期待在可預見的未來實現季度環比成長和價值提升。那麼，我很樂意回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Menno Hulshof, TD Cowen.

（操作說明）Menno Hulshof，TD Cowen。

Just a question on portfolio streamlining. If we assume that the MEG deal closes towards the middle of November, like you've talked about, how should we be thinking about asset sales potential in the context of what would be a more levered balance sheet? I know you get this question a lot, but any updated thoughts there would be helpful.

關於投資組合優化，我有個問題。如果假設 MEG 交易如您所說，在 11 月中旬完成，那麼在槓桿率更高的資產負債表背景下，我們應該如何看待資產出售的潛力？我知道你經常被問到這個問題，但任何新的見解都會很有幫助。

One of the things that we are always very cognizant of Menno is the amount of leverage we keep on our balance sheet, and we've always run with an underlevered balance sheet, which allows us to do transactions like this very comfortably.

Menno，我們一直非常注意的一點是我們在資產負債表上保持的槓桿率，我們一直保持著較低的槓桿率，這使我們能夠非常輕鬆地進行此類交易。

So there is no burning platform to need to delever after doing this transaction. We're very comfortable with the level of debt that we're going to be taking on to get this deal done and through time, we'll get back to the $4 billion of net debt, but there is no urgency to do asset sales or something like that in an effort to get there.

因此，完成這筆交易後，不存在需要立即去槓桿化的燃眉之急。我們對完成這筆交易將要承擔的債務水平感到非常滿意，隨著時間的推移，我們將恢復到 40 億美元的淨債務水平，但目前並不急於透過出售資產或其他類似方式來實現這一目標。

And that being said, we always look at the portfolio well we should think about how we want to position ourselves and if opportunities arise. We're always live to those, but certainly, there's nothing that would say that we need to do something tomorrow. We would never do a transaction like this if we felt it was going to corrupt the balance sheet and put our equity holders in harm's way.

也就是說，我們總是會仔細檢視投資組合，思考我們希望如何定位自己，以及是否會出現機會。我們始終關注這些情況，但當然，沒有任何跡象表明我們明天需要做些什麼。如果我們認為這樣的交易會損害資產負債表並危及股東利益，我們絕對不會進行這樣的交易。

Great. And then maybe moving on to the downstream, we're sort of moving into November now, sort of 1/3 of the way through the quarter. How would you frame the setup for U.S. Downstream for Q4. And then maybe on a related note, how much would -- should we expect market capture to be impacted with the Wood River border assets no longer in the mix?

偉大的。然後，我們或許可以把目光轉向下游，現在已經進入十一月了，差不多已經過了季度的三分之一。您如何規劃美國下游業務第四季的發展格局？另外，或許可以順便提一下，如果伍德河邊境資產不再納入考量，我們應該預期市佔率會受到多大影響？

I'm guessing it's no more than, call it, 1 to 2 percentage points, but any thoughts there would help.

我估計不會超過1%到2%，但任何想法都會有所幫助。

Well, in Q3, our market capture was actually higher in our operated assets than they were in the non-operated assets. But I've got Eric Semper with us this morning. So maybe I'll turn that question over to him to see how he's thinking about Q4 and market capture.

嗯，在第三季度，我們自營資產的市佔率實際上高於非自營資產。但我今天早上請到了艾瑞克‧森珀。所以，我或許會把這個問題拋給他，看看他對第四季和市佔率的看法。

Yes. Thanks, Jon, and thanks for the question, Menno. Yes, I'd say I certainly think the third quarter is a testament to the work that the team has done, and I think has been something that has really been a focus area for the year. and really proud of the results of what we're seeing in the third quarter.

是的。謝謝Jon，也謝謝Menno的問題。是的，我認為第三季的表現充分證明了球隊的努力，這也是我們今年一直重點關注的領域。我對第三季取得的成績感到非常自豪。

As we look at the fourth quarter, I think there's a couple of things I think about in terms of the underlying performance, continue to be encouraged by the trajectory. So reliability improvements that we've made have really give us a foundation.

展望第四季度，就基本面表現而言，我認為有幾點值得關注，我對目前的成長勢頭感到鼓舞。因此，我們在可靠性方面所做的改進確實為我們奠定了基礎。

I think the cost focus that we've had throughout the year and the results that we're seeing with the lower cost base is something that, again, we continue to focus on and will continue to be something that we emphasize going forward. yes, any time you get into the fourth quarter, you expect margins to start to come off, cracks start to weaken.

我認為，我們全年對成本的關注以及由此帶來的成本節約成果，是我們將繼續關注並持續強調的重點。是的，進入第四季度，利潤率通常會開始下降，裂痕也會開始顯現。

We're already seeing some of that. There's some strength right now. But I think having a strong business and strong underlying performance gives us the ability to kind of weather through some of the market challenges that you inevitably expect in fourth quarter and then also in the first quarter as well with the PADD II region specifically.

我們已經看到一些這樣的跡象了。目前形勢還算樂觀。但我認為，擁有強大的業務和強勁的基本面表現，使我們能夠應對第四季度以及第一季（特別是 PADD II 地區）不可避免的一些市場挑戰。

In terms of the market capture, I'd just maybe emphasize. Reemphasize what John shared, that has been a continued area of focus for us. A number of things that we've worked to really help strengthen our market capture. The U.S. operated portfolio really outperformed the collective portfolio in terms of what we saw in market capture.

就市場佔有率而言，我只想強調一點。再次強調約翰分享的內容，這一直是我們關注的重點領域。我們採取了多項措施來真正幫助加強市場佔有率。從市佔率來看，美國營運的投資組合的表現確實優於整體投資組合。

So continue to be encouraged, but it's something we are continuing to focus on and try to figure and look for opportunities to grow that market capture even more through our synergy opportunities as well as accessing some markets where we can have some higher netbacks and better product placement.

所以請繼續保持信心，我們將繼續專注於此，並努力尋找機會，透過協同效應進一步擴大市場份額，同時進入一些我們可以獲得更高淨收益和更好產品定位的市場。

Patrick O'Rourke, ATB Capital Markets.

Patrick O'Rourke，ATB Capital Markets。

Maybe just to sort of continue on the downstream theme there for Menno. Just wondering, now with the fully operated portfolio with the integration in the kits, sort of what the flexibility is going forward in terms of the product slate. It's a little bit lower on, call it, diesel distillate yield and maybe some of your Canadian peers, is there an ability to raise those things, capture premium products?

也許只是為了延續 Menno 的下游主題。我只是好奇，現在產品組合已經全面運營，並且整合到了套件中，那麼未來在產品線方面會有多大的靈活性。比如說，柴油餾分油產量略低，也許你們的一些加拿大同行也略低，你們是否有能力提高這些指標，從而獲得優質產品？

And then you've spoken to pushing product in the more premium markets, Eastern Canada, et cetera. What progress you've made on that so far.

然後您談到了在更高端的市場（例如加拿大東部等地）推廣產品。到目前為止，你在這方面取得了哪些進展？

Yes. Thanks, Patrick. It's a great question. In terms of the portfolio, I think one of the things I'm really excited about is with the opportunities of the US portfolio, I think, particularly around each refinery has its unique configuration that allows us to maximize the value.

是的。謝謝你，派崔克。這是一個很好的問題。就投資組合而言，我真正感到興奮的是美國投資組合的機會，我認為，特別是每個煉油廠都有其獨特的配置，這使我們能夠最大限度地發揮其價值。

But one of the things we've really started to lean into is how do we optimize across the entire portfolio? And how do we get the best product yield across the portfolio and not just asset by asset, but really thinking about it at a portfolio level. I think that gives us a tremendous opportunity.

但我們真正開始專注研究的一件事是如何優化整個投資組合？我們如何在整個投資組合中獲得最佳產品收益率，而不僅僅是逐個資產地考慮，而是真正從投資組合層面考慮。我認為這給了我們一個絕佳的機會。

And I can think particularly in the Ohio Valley area, where we're able to optimize, whether it's our premium production, premium gasoline production whether it's balancing our distillate feedstocks and maximize their distillate production truly an area where we're continuing to explore and we see -- we certainly see some potential benefits in also the opportunities to do some investments in the future to look at how do we continue to make the best products from our kit.

我特別想到俄亥俄河谷地區，在那裡我們能夠優化，無論是我們的優質產品生產、優質汽油生產，還是平衡我們的餾分油原料並最大限度地提高餾分油產量，這都是我們正在繼續探索的領域，我們看到——我們當然看到了未來進行一些投資的潛在好處，看看我們如何繼續利用我們的設備生產最好的產品。

In terms of kind of the second part of your question on accessing the markets, continues to be an area of focus. PADD 2 is, we think, a really good region for us, but the opportunity to place products outside of PADD 2 and find more advantaged markets is really important to our strategy.

關於您問題的第二部分，即如何進入市場，這仍然是我們關注的重點領域。我們認為 PADD 2 對我們來說是一個非常好的地區，但有機會將產品推向 PADD 2 以外的地區，找到更有優勢的市場，對我們的策略來說非常重要。

I would point to -- we've made significant progress in how we're managing the Toledo marine facility. And that has given us the ability to put products into a number of different regions outside of PA whether it's in the Canadian markets, whether it's into Upstream upstate New York or whether it's into other regions on the -- great Lakes. But tons of opportunities there. We're really excited about the opportunity to further explore that. And see great upside there.

我想指出的是——我們在托萊多海洋設施的管理方面取得了重大進展。這使得我們能夠將產品銷往賓州以外的許多不同地區，無論是加拿大市場、紐約州上游地區，或是五大湖區的其他地區。但那裡有很多機會。我們非常高興有機會進一步探索這個領域。而且，我認為那裡有很大的發展潛力。

Okay. Great. And then just in terms of free cash flow allocation priorities, I know with the initial MEG transaction, you came out with sort of a formula in terms of allocation of balance sheet versus shareholder returns, 50% than 75% finally 100%. Today's updated deck just really speaks to the 100. And I know you said it wouldn't necessarily be formulaic on a month-by-month, quarter-by-quarter basis.

好的。偉大的。至於自由現金流分配優先級，我知道在最初的 MEG 交易中，你們提出了一個關於資產負債表與股東回報分配的公式，從 50% 到 75%，最終到 100%。今天更新的牌組確實非常符合100分的要求。我知道你說過，這不一定會按月、按季度按模式來製定。

But maybe if you could comment sort of on the game plan in terms of allocation today between delevering and share buybacks.

但或許您可以就目前在去槓桿化和股票回購之間的資源分配計畫發表一些看法。

Sure, Kam. You've done a lot of work on this. Why don't you take this one?

當然可以，卡姆。你在這方面做了很多工作。為什麼不選這個呢？

Yes. So Patrick, I kind of separate sort of from the MEG transaction what we're doing today. Obviously, we spent the last year to even longer than that, getting the balance sheet to where we are today, which is at that $4 billion target -- so putting mega side for a second, I would say the plan would be to return 100% of our excess free cash flow because we are at our long-term debt level.

是的。所以派崔克，我今天所做的事情與 MEG 交易有點區分開來。顯然，我們花了過去一年甚至更長時間才使資產負債表達到今天的水平，即 40 億美元的目標——所以暫且拋開巨額債務不談，我認為計劃是返還 100% 的超額自由現金流，因為我們的債務水平已經達到長期目標。

And we'll be -- we continue to see that as a really good opportunity today, and we'll continue to utilize our free cash flow to return that cash back to shareholders. And I'd say for now, given the -- where the share price is, and we continue to see it as an attractive place to deploy capital, you should expect that excess free cash flow to go towards share repurchases.

我們將繼續把這視為一個非常好的機會，並將繼續利用我們的自由現金流將這些現金回饋給股東。就目前而言，鑑於股價的走勢，以及我們仍然認為這是一個有吸引力的資本部署地點，我認為多餘的自由現金流將用於股票回購。

Obviously, as we get to the point where MEG does close, which we still expect here in November, we will adjust that framework to be a bit more balanced with deleveraging and shareholder returns. So the plan would be as we bring the debt back down to around that $6 billion, we'll be kind of around 50-50.

顯然，隨著 MEG 最終完成收購（我們仍然預計在 11 月完成），我們將調整該框架，使其在去槓桿化和股東回報方面更加平衡。所以，我們的計劃是，當我們把債務降到 60 億美元左右時，我們的債務和收入比例就會達到 50/50 左右。

But as you pointed out, it's not going to be so prescriptive in formulaic. We'll be thoughtful about how much we put on the balance sheet and how much we repurchase shares. And some of that will depend on commodity prices and free cash flow. But think of those as guidelines versus formulas going forward. But I think overall, the goal would be to get back down to the $4 billion, that is still our ultimate target.

但正如你所指出的，它不會像公式那樣具有強制性。我們會認真考慮資產負債表上的項目數量以及股票回購的數量。其中一部分將取決於大宗商品價格和自由現金流。但請把這些看作是指導原則，而不是未來的固定模式。但我認為總體而言，我們的目標是將虧損降回 40 億美元，這仍然是我們的最終目標。

We have an approach where we want to make sure we get the balance sheet back to that 4%. Obviously, our cash flow base, our growth we've got plus the plan with the MEG assets, we'll put the company in a really good position from a leverage point of view. But we view our balance sheet as being something that's going to stay pristine, and it allows us flexibility and opportunity like we've been able to pursue on the MEG transaction.

我們採取的策略是確保資產負債表恢復到 4% 的水平。顯然，憑藉我們的現金流基礎、成長動能以及對 MEG 資產的規劃，從槓桿角度來看，我們將使公司處於非常有利的地位。但我們認為我們的資產負債表將保持良好狀態，這讓我們擁有了靈活性和機會，就像我們在 MEG 交易中所做的那樣。

Alexa Petrick, Goldman Sachs.

Alexa Petrick，高盛集團。

I wanted to ask maybe switching gears. As we think about West White Rose, you've made a lot of progress there. What are some of the gating items -- and then any early thoughts on what that production path could look like for 1H 2026 versus 2H?

我想問一下，或許可以換個話題。說到西白玫瑰，你們在那裡取得了巨大的進展。有哪些關鍵因素？對於 2026 年上半年和下半年的生產路徑，您有什麼初步想法？

Yes. We haven't given guidance for 2026, '27 and '28 yet. But what we have said publicly about West White Rose is that we are largely through commissioning that project now and we'll be drilling well prior to year-end with first production expected in early second quarter 2026. That still remains the direction of travel.

是的。我們尚未給出 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年的指導意見。但我們公開表示，西白玫瑰計畫目前已基本完成調試，我們將在年底前開始鑽井，預計將於 2026 年第二季初投產。這仍然是前進的方向。

But Andrew, maybe you could just provide a little bit more detail on where we are and what that path may look like.

但安德魯，或許你可以更詳細地說明我們目前所處的位置以及未來的發展方向。

Yes. No. Thank you, Alexa. Yes, maybe to go a little bit back in time and just catch up too. So obviously, in July, we placed the top sides on top of the CGS.

是的。不。謝謝你，Alexa。是的，或許可以稍微回顧過去，也算是趕上進度。所以很明顯，在七月份，我們將頂部側面放置在了 CGS 的頂部。

We deep, as John said, we're deep into the commissioning and start-up activities, and that actually included the -- all the subsea work that we connected the West White Rose platform to the Sea Rose in terms of all the pipeline work, et cetera.

正如約翰所說，我們已經深入到調試和啟動活動中，這實際上包括——所有將西白玫瑰平台連接到海玫瑰平台的海底工作，包括所有管道工作等等。

We'll be drilling by year-end and then indeed, first production in Q2 of 2026. In terms of production ramp-up, it's not -- we're going to drill roughly five wells per year. It's roughly a straight line from 2026 through to 2028. And what we've said is in 2028, gross volume should be around 80,000 barrels a day, which net Cenovus share is roughly 45,000 barrels a day, Alexa.

我們將在年底前開始鑽探，然後，預計將於 2026 年第二季實現首次投產。就產量提升而言，並非如此——我們每年大約會鑽五口井。從 2026 年到 2028 年，大致呈現直線趨勢。我們之前說過，到 2028 年，總產量應該在每天 8 萬桶左右，其中 Cenovus 的淨份額約為每天 4.5 萬桶，Alexa。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I recognize it's still a bit early, but you've talked about significant amount of growth CapEx coming off next year. Any early thoughts on what that magnitude could look like? And what are some maybe other offsetting considerations we should be keeping in mind?

好的。那很有幫助。我知道現在說這些還為時過早，但您提到明年將有大量的成長資本支出。對於這種規模的規模，大家有什麼初步想法嗎？那麼，我們還應該考慮哪些其他可能產生抵銷作用的因素呢？

Yes. So where we've really guided the market, and we'll formalize this when we come out with our budget in December. But if you look at spending the last couple of years, we've been around CAD5 billion, which would include somewhere around 1.5, 1.7 worth of growth capital. And what we've been guiding to is 2026 will look different with all of these growth projects kind of rolling off the agenda.

是的。所以，我們已經真正引導了市場，我們將在 12 月公佈預算時正式確定這一點。但如果你看看過去幾年的支出，我們已經花費了大約 50 億加元，其中包括約 15 億至 17 億加元的成長資本。我們一直預期的是，隨著所有這些成長項目逐漸從議程中移除，2026 年將會截然不同。

So what you should be thinking about is on an unaffected basis, not including MEG, we would be around $4.2 billion. take out WRB from that kind of brings you to around 4%. And that's kind of where we think the budget pre-MEG is going to sit. And then we've also suggested that in 2026 when you add in MEG assets, we would probably be adding about another $800 million for sustaining and growth capital on the MEG assets in 2026.

所以你應該考慮的是，在不計入MEG影響的情況下，損失大約是42億美元。如果再扣除WRB，損失就降到了4%左右。我們認為MEG之前的預算大概會是這樣。此外，我們還建議，到 2026 年，如果將 MEG 資產納入其中，我們可能會在 2026 年為 MEG 資產增加約 8 億美元的維持和成長資本。

So maybe I've really just already given you the budget for 2026 capital. But that's kind of what we've been saying, and I think it's very consistent with where we've been taking the market over the last few months and years.

所以，也許我已經把2026年的資本預算給你了。但這其實就是我們一直以來所說的，而且我認為這與我們過去幾個月甚至幾年來引領市場的方向非常一致。

(Operator Instructions) Manav Gupta, UBS.

（操作員說明）Manav Gupta，瑞銀集團。

I am so sorry about this for UBS IT issues. I wanted to ask you, there are a number of organic growth projects, which you are pursuing, which could deliver over 100,000 barrels of organic volume growth on top of MEG and so can you update us what's the progress over there? How are those projects progressing

對於瑞銀IT方面的問題，我深感抱歉。我想問一下，你們正在推進一些有機成長項目，這些項目可以在MEG的基礎上帶來超過10萬桶的有機產量成長，所以你能向我們介紹一下這些項目的進展嗎？這些專案進度如何？

Yes. I'm not sure where the 400,000 barrels came from Manav.

是的。馬納夫，我不知道這 40 萬桶是從哪裡來的。

No. 100,000. 100,000.

第 100,000 號。100,000。

Sorry, I think you said 4, you kind of worried me. I thought maybe our messaging had been confused.

抱歉，我記得你說的是4，你讓我有點擔心。我當時想，或許是我們之間的訊息傳遞出現了混亂。

No. 100,00, sir.

先生，編號100,00。

Yes. What we've been guiding the market to is about 150,000 barrels of growth. And it really comes from heavy oil, conventional and offshore so right across our portfolio. So on the East Coast, as Andrew mentioned, we look to ramp up the West White Rose project, about 45,000 to 50,000 barrels a day by 2028.

是的。我們一直引導市場實現的成長目標約為 15 萬桶。而且，這實際上來自重油、常規油和海上油，涵蓋了我們整個產品組合。正如安德魯所提到的，在東海岸，我們希望提高西白玫瑰計畫的產量，到 2028 年達到每天 45,000 至 50,000 桶。

That growth starts in '26 and progresses linearly through '26, '27, and into 28. And that's kind of the biggest piece of the growth profile. What we're seeing in Narrows Lake with the tieback to Christina Lake like, is the 20,000 to 30,000 barrels a day starting to materialize there, and you'll see Christina Lake in that 250 to 260 range.

這種增長始於 2026 年，並線性地持續到 2026 年、2027 年，直至 2028 年。而這可以說是成長曲線中最重要的一環。我們看到，透過與克里斯蒂娜湖的連接，納羅斯湖每天的產量開始達到 2 萬到 3 萬桶，而克里斯蒂娜湖的產量也將達到 25 萬到 26 萬桶。

We talked about adding 80,000 barrels a day of steam capacity at Foster Creek, which would add about 30,000 barrels a day to that asset. Today, we're already seeing about 20 of that with the early steam that we brought on. in Q3. But you should see that continue to ramp up in 2026 as we bring on well pads as well finished, the water handling and deoiling sections of that growth in Sunrise.

我們討論了在福斯特溪增加每天 8 萬桶的蒸汽產能，這將使該資產每天增加約 3 萬桶的產能。今天，隨著我們在第三季早期階段引入的動力，我們已經看到了大約 20 個這樣的案例。但隨著我們在 Sunrise 地區建成完工的油井平台以及水處理和除油部分，您應該會看到這種情況在 2026 年繼續加速發展。

We're just getting into what we call the V pads, and these are in the Eastern region of Sunrise. These are some of the most prolific pads that we've got in our inventory, and we expect to see production grow from 55,000 barrels a day to close to 75% over the next couple of years at Sunrise.

我們現在正進入我們稱之為 V 形墊的區域，這些區域位於日出鎮的東部地區。這些是我們庫存中最富饒的油田之一，我們預計未來幾年內，Sunrise 油田的日產量將從 55,000 桶增長到接近 75%。

And then the other growth comes from our conventional and cold heavy businesses. But what you'll see from us as we progress through time and get through '26, '27, and in '28 is production will increase into that kind of 950,000 barrel a day range.

而其他成長則來自我們傳統的、冷冰冰的重型業務。但隨著時間的推移，到了 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年，你們將會看到我們的產量增加到每天 95 萬桶左右。

Very helpful. My quick follow-up here is, during the quarter, the buyback was very strong. The buyback went up materially did the net debt? I'm just trying to understand, was this just a timing issue where the PSX deal had been announced and those cash proceeds are probably coming in somewhere in the fourth quarter. That's why the buyback and the net debt went up at the same time, if you could clarify on that.

很有幫助。我在這裡要補充的是，本季回購力道非常大。回購規模大幅增加，淨債務是否也隨之大幅上升？我只是想弄清楚，這是否只是一個時間問題，PSX 交易已經宣布，而這些現金收益可能要到第四季才能到達。這就是為什麼股票回購和淨債務同時增加的原因，請您解釋一下。

Sure, Manav, it's Kam. So I think one thing just to keep in mind is our reported net debt at the end of September was $5.25 billion. That did not give consideration to the $1.8 billion that we brought in for the sale of Wood River and Borger. So after -- shortly after quarter end, we dropped back down to $4 billion -- but what I would say is we announced the sale back in early September.

當然，Manav，是Kam。所以我覺得需要記住的一點是，截至9月底，我們公佈的淨債務為52.5億美元。這還不包括我們透過出售 Wood River 和 Borger 獲得的 18 億美元。所以，在季度末之後不久，我們的規模就回落了 40 億美元——但我要說的是，我們在 9 月初就宣布了這筆交易。

We very intentionally obviously knew the timing of closing and when we get the cash. So we actually accelerated some of our buyback program through September and in October. So I think what I would tell you is I think we're going to continue to steward towards that $4 billion going forward. Obviously, MEG transaction when that closes, we'll change that.

我們非常明確地知道交易完成的時間以及何時能拿到現金。因此，我們實際上加快了9月和10月的部分股票回購計畫。所以我想告訴大家的是，我們將繼續朝著40億美元的目標努力。顯然，MEG交易結束後，我們會做出相應的更改。

But I think to the extent that we can, we'll continue to use 100% of excess free cash flow to buy back shares. But the debt -- the goal is to kind of hold the debt in and around that $4 billion. But obviously, the reported debt number at the end of September did not have or did not reflect the proceeds we received from the sale.

但我認為，只要條件允許，我們將繼續把100%的剩餘自由現金流用於回購股票。但債務方面——目標是將債務控制在 40 億美元左右。但顯然，9 月底公佈的債務數字並沒有包含或沒有反映出我們從出售中獲得的收益。

That's exactly what I thought. So it was just a timing issue. The buybacks are in 3Q and the proceeds coming in a little later.

我當時也是這麼想的。所以只是時機問題。股票回購將在第三季進行，收益將在稍後到達。

Patrick O'Rourke, ATB Capital Markets.

Patrick O'Rourke，ATB Capital Markets。

Welcome back, Patrick.

歡迎回來，派崔克。

Just wanted to kind of build on the comments there with respect to narrows. In the public data, we're seeing that sort of in the 15,000 to 16,000 in September, so getting close to the low end of that range. a bit of differentiation on well performance. We're only working with September here. You guys have the hindsight of more recent data.

我只是想就窄幅區域的問題，對之前的評論做一些補充。公開數據顯示，9月的產量在15000到16000之間，接近該範圍的下限。油井產量有些差異。我們這裡只考慮九月的情況。你們掌握了更新的數據，所以擁有後見之明。

I would assume, through -- close to through the month of October. Just wondering how well performance is trending relative to type curve and any time frame around when you get to the bottom of that 20,000 range.

我估計，大概會持續到十月。我只是想知道性能相對於類型曲線的趨勢如何，以及在達到 20,000 範圍底部附近的任何時間段內。

Yes. So I'm going to turn this over to Andrew to give some detail, but we started steaming two well pads back in July and brought on about 18 wells on the X5 and 6 pads. We're currently steaming the third pad, and we brought on, I think, six of eight of those well pairs. And these are ramping up as expected. But Andrew, you're all over this every day.

是的。接下來我將把這個交給 Andrew 來詳細介紹一下，但我們從 7 月開始在兩個井場進行蒸汽作業，並在 X5 和 X6 井場上開採了大約 18 口井。我們目前正在對第三個井場進行蒸汽作業，我認為，我們已經投入了八對井中的六對井。正如預期的那樣，這些情況正在加劇。但是安德魯，你每天都在關注這件事。

So you had over color.

所以你用了過量的顏色。

Patrick, we were totally on top of this, and we're seeing exactly what we expected from those wells and that they are strong without giving too many numbers. I can tell you here that production in October is now up into the 20,000-something barrels a day, 22,000, 23,000 barrels a day.

帕特里克，我們完全掌控了局面，我們看到的正是我們預期的那些油井的情況，它們確實很強勁，雖然我們無法提供太多具體數字。我可以告訴大家，10 月的產量現在已經達到每天 2 萬多桶，2.2 萬桶，2.3 萬桶。

Indeed, we're producing from three pads, we're ensuring that we've got great conforms across all of those pads. And then here in early Q1 of next year, we'll bring the fourth pad on. So no, we're very comfortable and very confident in the performance we're seeing at Narrows Lake and ultimately in the delivery of that growth of the Christina Lake asset.

事實上，我們採用三種墊片進行生產，我們確保所有這些墊片都具有良好的貼合性。然後，在明年第一季初，我們將啟用第四塊墊子。所以，我們對 Narrows Lake 的表現非常滿意，也很有信心，最終也能實現 Christina Lake 資產的成長。

There are no further questions registered at this time.

目前沒有其他問題需要諮詢。

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Jon McKenzie.

現在我將會議交給喬恩·麥肯齊先生主持。

Great. And thank you, operator. And I think we're grateful and surprised. There were no questions about MEG but be that as it may, this concludes our conference call, and thank you for joining us. As always, we really appreciate the interest in the company.

偉大的。謝謝接線生。我想我們既感到感激又感到驚喜。雖然沒有關於 MEG 的問題，但無論如何，我們的電話會議到此結束，感謝各位的參與。一如既往，我們非常感謝大家對公司的關注。

And thank you to all, and have a great day.

謝謝大家，祝大家今天過得愉快。

This concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Thank you for participating in today's conference, and have a great day.

今天的節目到此結束。你們可以斷開連結了。感謝您參加今天的會議，祝您有美好的一天。