Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Cenovus Energy second-quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Patrick Read, Vice President, Investor Relations and Internal Audit.

大家早安。感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Cenovus Energy 2025 年第二季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，此通話正在被錄音。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係和內部審計副總裁帕特里克·里德先生。

Please go ahead, Mr. Read.

請繼續，里德先生。

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cenovus' 2025 second-quarter results conference call. On the call this morning are CEO, Jon McKenzie; and CFO, Kam Sandhar, will take you through our results. We'll then open the line for Jon, Kam, and other members of the Cenovus management team to take your questions.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加 Cenovus 2025 年第二季業績電話會議。今天早上的電話會議由執行長 Jon McKenzie 和財務長 Kam Sandhar 主持，他們將向您介紹我們的業績。然後，我們將為 Jon、Kam 和 Cenovus 管理團隊的其他成員開通熱線，以回答您的問題。

Before getting started, I'll refer you to our advisories located at the end of today's news release. These describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures and oil and gas terms referred to today. They also outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion.

在開始之前，請參閱今天新聞稿末尾的建議。這些描述了今天提及的前瞻性資訊、非公認會計準則指標和石油和天然氣術語。他們也概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素和假設。

Additional information is available in Cenovus' annual MD&A and our most recent AIF and Form 40-F. And as a reminder, all figures we referenced on the call today will be in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. You can view our results at cenovus.com. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Jon. Jon, please go ahead.

更多資訊請參閱 Cenovus 的年度 MD&A 以及我們最新的 AIF 和 40-F 表格。提醒一下，除非另有說明，我們今天電話會議中引用的所有數字均以加幣為單位。您可以在 cenovus.com 上查看我們的結果。 （操作員指示）現在我將把電話轉給喬恩。喬恩，請繼續。

Great. Thank you, Patrick, and good morning, everyone. As always, I'll start with our top priority, health and safety.

偉大的。謝謝你，派崔克，大家早安。像往常一樣，我將從我們的首要任務——健康和安全開始。

This quarter poses some unique challenges, and I couldn't be more proud of the way our people responded. In late May, the Caribou Lake wildfire forced the evacuation of over 2,000 workers from our Foster Creek and Christina Lake operations. The fire came within a couple of kilometers of Christina Lake. And as a result, the facility underwent an orderly shutdown as per our protocol.

本季面臨著一些獨特的挑戰，我對我們的員工的應對方式感到無比自豪。5 月下旬，卡里布湖野火迫使我們位於福斯特溪和克里斯蒂娜湖的作業區 2,000 多名工人撤離。火災發生在距離克里斯蒂娜湖幾公里的範圍內。因此，該設施按照我們的協議有序關閉。

After a brief outage and thanks to the tireless and determined work of our people, we safely ramped production back up to 250,000 barrels a day and return to normal operations over the course of the week. Now this effort included draining and restarting over 50 kilometers of steam pipelines, bringing 26 boilers back online, returning the cogen facility back to service and remobilizing all 2,000 people back to site. It was an incredible effort, all safely done and without damage to our assets.

經過短暫的停產後，由於我們員工的不懈努力和堅定決心，我們安全地將產量恢復到每天 25 萬桶，並在一周內恢復正常運作。現在，這項工作包括排空並重新啟動超過 50 公里的蒸汽管道、恢復 26 台鍋爐的運作、恢復熱電聯產設施的運作以及將所有 2,000 名人員重新安置到現場。這是一次令人難以置信的努力，一切都安全完成，並且沒有對我們的資產造成損害。

It's a privilege to witness how our people step up when it matters most, and I'd like to thank our staff for their resilience and continued commitment and dedication. Now turning to the quarter. This was a terrific quarter for the company. A lot of important work got done and many important milestones were achieved. We underwent a heavy maintenance period completing large turnarounds in both the upstream and the downstream, which came in ahead of schedule and under budget. We achieved some very significant milestones on our major projects, bringing us closer to delivering on our production growth targets and completing our three-year cycle of higher capital investment.

我很榮幸能夠見證我們的員工在最關鍵的時刻挺身而出，我要感謝我們的員工的堅韌和持續的承諾和奉獻。現在轉向本季。對於公司來說這是一個非常棒的季度。許多重要工作已經完成，許多重要里程碑已經實現。我們經歷了一段密集的維護期，完成了上游和下游的大規模檢修，這比計劃提前完成，並且沒有超出預算。我們在主要專案上取得了一些非常重要的里程碑，使我們更接近實現生產成長目標並完成三年更高資本投資週期。

And through all that activity, we delivered exceptional operating performance across the company. Together, these achievements set the stage for the second half of the year and beyond and they were accomplished, thanks again to the hard work and determination of our people. Now I want to speak to some of the details. Beginning with the upstream, production in the quarter was 766,000 BOE per day as we completed turnarounds at Foster Creek and Sunrise and managed the production impacts from the wafer activity at Christina Lake and the Steam release at Rush Lake.

透過所有這些活動，我們整個公司實現了卓越的營運表現。這些成就為今年下半年及以後的業績奠定了基礎，這要再次感謝我們全體員工的辛勤工作和決心。現在我想談一些細節。從上游開始，本季的產量為每天 766,000 桶油當量，因為我們完成了 Foster Creek 和 Sunrise 的檢修，並管理了 Christina Lake 的晶圓活動和 Rush Lake 的蒸汽釋放對生產的影響。

The turnarounds of Foster Creek and Sunrise both went very well. We completed the work and restored production well ahead of schedule, minimizing volumes lost over the quarter. At Christina Lake, production came back strongly following the brief wildfire-related shut-in. Production was 218,000 barrels a day in the quarter and has averaged over 250,000 barrels a day in July and we achieved an important milestone with the Narrows Lake tieback to Christina Lake.

Foster Creek 和 Sunrise 的轉虧為盈都非常順利。我們提前完成了工作並恢復了生產，最大限度地減少了本季的產量損失。克里斯蒂娜湖的產量在因野火而短暫關閉後強勁恢復。本季產量為每天 218,000 桶，7 月份平均每天產量超過 250,000 桶，並且我們在 Narrows Lake 與 Christina Lake 的連接上取得了重要的里程碑。

Narrows Lake produced first oil earlier this month in July. This is a huge accomplishment and a testament to the technical and operations team who made this first-of-a-kind tieback possible. We'll ramp up the first pads at Narrow Lake over the remainder of the year and this means a lower steam oil ratio and sustained higher production rates as we maximize the value from this asset.

納羅斯湖於本月初（7 月初）產出了第一批石油。這是一項巨大的成就，也是對技術和營運團隊的證明，是他們讓這項史無前例的回接成為可能。我們將在今年剩餘時間內增加 Narrow Lake 的第一批平台，這意味著更低的蒸汽油比和持續更高的生產率，因為我們將最大限度地提高該資產的價值。

Our second quarter was also a very busy quarter at the West White Rose project. During the quarter, both the concrete gravity structure and the top sides were transported out to the offshore field location. In June, the CGS was placed on the seabed and in mid-July, the topsides were lifted and set a top of the CGS well ahead of schedule. Now this feed of engineering include the world's first-ever direct ship-to-ship transfer of a topside to the pioneering spirit crane vessel.

我們第二季也是 West White Rose 專案非常繁忙的季度。在本季度，混凝土重力結構和頂部均被運送至海上油田位置。6 月份，CGS 被放置在海床上，7 月中旬，頂部結構被打撈上來，並提前完成了 CGS 的頂部安裝。現在，這項工程包括世界上首次透過船對船直接將頂部結構轉移到先鋒精神起重船上。

With both the CGS and the top sides work complete and set in place, hookup and commissioning activities have now begun. This will include the connection to the SeaRose FPSO, which began producing oil earlier in the year following the successful completion of the asset life extension. During the quarter, it reliably produced over 7,000 barrels per day. We plan to commence drilling from the West White Rose platform before the end of the year and achieved first oil in the second quarter of 2026. At Foster Creek, we tied in four new steam generators during the turnaround and turned them over to operations in July.

隨著 CGS 和頂部工作完成並就位，連接和調試活動現已開始。這將包括與 SeaRose FPSO 的連接，該 FPSO 在成功完成資產壽命延長後於今年早些時候開始生產石油。本季度，該公司每天可靠產量超過 7,000 桶。我們計劃在今年年底前開始在 West White Rose 平台進行鑽探，並於 2026 年第二季獲得第一批石油。在福斯特溪，我們在檢修期間安裝了四台新的蒸汽發生器，並於 7 月開始運作。

These steam generators will collectively add about 80,000 barrels per day of new steam capacity as part of the optimization project. We will complete work on the de-oiling and water treatment facilities later this year, and we're on track to bring on first oil from the project in early 2026. Now during the quarter, we also responded to a casing failure and injector well at Rush Lake, which resulted in a steam release to surface. The release was a localized incident impacting One well at Rush Lake 2 asset.

作為優化項目的一部分，這些蒸汽發生器每天將總共增加約 80,000 桶的新蒸汽產能。我們將在今年稍後完成脫油和水處理設施的建設工作，並預計在 2026 年初從該項目中產出第一批石油。本季度，我們也對拉什湖的套管故障和注入井進行了處理，導致蒸汽洩漏到地面。這次洩漏是一起局部事件，影響了 Rush Lake 2 資產的一口井。

In response to the release, both Rush Lake 1 and Rush Lake 2 facilities were shut in. Prior to the shut in the facilities had been producing about 18,000 barrels a day. The well has been brought under control and will work together with the regulator to complete a full investigation and put together a plan to safely restart production. As a result and not a caution, we have removed Rush Lake volumes from our production guidance for the remainder of this year.

為了應對洩漏，拉什湖 1 號和拉什湖 2 號設施都被關閉。在關閉之前，該設施每天的產量約為 18,000 桶。該油井目前已受到控制，並將與監管機構合作完成全面調查並制定安全重啟生產的計畫。因此，而不是為了警告，我們將拉什湖的產量從今年剩餘時間的生產指引中移除。

The production impact has been partially offset by strong performance from the other Lloyd thermal assets driven by new development wells and optimization work. Overall, it's been a very active and productive period for upstream business, and we continue to deliver on our growth plans. In the Downstream, we had strong results in the second quarter. Excluding inventory holding losses and expense turnaround costs, the downstream business generated about $220 million in operating margin.

生產影響已被其他勞埃德熱能資產的強勁表現部分抵消，這些表現主要得益於新開發井和優化工作。總體而言，對於上游業務來說，這是一個非常活躍和富有成效的時期，我們將繼續實現我們的成長計劃。在下游領域，我們在第二季度取得了強勁的業績。不包括庫存持有損失和費用週轉成本，下游業務產生了約 2.2 億美元的營業利潤。

The Canadian refining had another exceptional quarter. Crude throughput reached a new quarterly high of 112,000 barrels per day with a utilization rate of 104%. The reliability improvements made to the upgrader during last year's turnaround have enabled us to test capacity test the capacity of the facility with crude rates reaching as high as 87,000 barrels a day versus an operable capacity of 7,500 barrels per day.

加拿大煉油業又迎來了一個出色的季度。原油吞吐量創下11.2萬桶/日的季度新高，利用率為104%。去年檢修期間對升級裝置進行的可靠性改進使我們能夠測試該設施的產能，原油產量高達每天 87,000 桶，而實際運行產能為每天 7,500 桶。

The Lloydminster Refinery also performed exceptionally well, with rates reaching 33,000 barrels per day and record asphalt production in the quarter as we took advantage of strong seasonal demand. In US refining, we delivered crude throughput of 553,000 barrels per day while also executing a major turnaround at the Toledo to Refinery. And our execution at the Toledo Refinery is exemplary.

洛伊德明斯特煉油廠的表現也十分出色，得益於強勁的季節性需求，其日產量達到 33,000 桶，並且本季度的瀝青產量創下了紀錄。在美國煉油廠，我們每天的原油產量達到 553,000 桶，同時在托萊多煉油廠進行了一次重大檢修。我們在托萊多煉油廠的執行情況堪稱典範。

We took down eight major refinery units on the east side of the plant and similar to Lima last year, took a targeted approach to address the issues that we expect to improve reliability going forward. The turnaround was completed 11 days ahead of schedule and costs came in at the low end of the guidance range.

我們關閉了工廠東側的八個主要煉油裝置，與去年利馬的類似，採取了有針對性的方法來解決這些問題，我們希望提高未來的可靠性。改造工作提前 11 天完成，成本在指導範圍的低端。

Now importantly, this marks the end of a heavy maintenance period across our downstream business where we have expensed nearly $900 million in turnaround costs over the last six quarters. With our full network up and running and our major maintenance bond, as we have a clear runway to demonstrate the capability of the refining network through the rest of the year and into the second half of 2026. So I'm now going to turn it over to Kam to walk us through our financial results.

現在重要的是，這標誌著我們下游業務大規模維護期的結束，過去六個季度我們已花費近 9 億美元的周轉成本。隨著我們整個網路的運作和主要維護保證的落實，我們擁有了清晰的跑道來展示煉油網路在今年剩餘時間和 2026 年下半年的能力。現在我將把時間交給 Kam 來向我們介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Jon, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we generated $2.1 billion of operating margin and approximately $1.5 billion of adjusted funds flow. Operating margin in the Upstream was approximately $2.1 billion. Relative to last quarter, benchmark oil prices were lower and the Canadian dollar strengthened. This was partially offset by the WCS differential narrowing by more than $2 a barrel in the quarter. Oil sands nonfuel operating costs of $10.73 per barrel increased quarter-over-quarter due to turnaround activities and lower volumes in the second quarter.

謝謝，喬恩，大家早安。第二季度，我們創造了 21 億美元的營業利潤和約 15 億美元的調整後資金流。上游業務的營業利潤約為 21 億美元。與上一季相比，基準油價走低，加幣走強。這項變更被本季 WCS 差價每桶縮小 2 美元以上所部分抵銷。由於第二季轉虧為盈活動和產量下降，油砂非燃料營運成本較上季增加至每桶 10.73 美元。

We expect operating costs to come down in the second half of the year and into next year as we return for maintenance and begin to bring on additional volumes from our growth projects. In the Downstream, we generated operating an operating margin shortfall of $71 million. Excluding $50 million of inventory holding losses and $239 million of turnaround expenses, operating margin in the Downstream was about $220 million in the quarter.

我們預計，隨著我們恢復維護並開始從成長項目中獲得更多產量，營運成本將在下半年和明年下降。在下游業務方面，我們的營業利潤缺口為 7,100 萬美元。不包括 5,000 萬美元的庫存持有損失和 2.39 億美元的周轉費用，本季下游業務的營業利潤率約為 2.2 億美元。

In the Canadian refining business, operating costs per barrel decreased by about $0.20 a barrel from the first quarter, coming in below our full year guidance range for the second consecutive quarter. In the US refining business, per unit operating costs of $10.52 per barrel decreased by about $1.60 per barrel from the first quarter and over $1 a barrel relative to the same quarter last year.

在加拿大煉油業務中，每桶營運成本較第一季下降約 0.20 美元，連續第二季低於我們的全年指引範圍。美國煉油業務每單位營運成本為10.52美元/桶，較第一季下降約1.60美元/桶，較去年同期下降1美元/桶以上。

We continue to make progress in driving down costs in our operated refineries as we increase reliability and structurally remove costs across our network. Capital investment of $1.2 billion included sustaining activity across the business as well as growth and optimization capital in the oil sands, where we advanced our key projects and in the Atlantic region with the progression of the West White Rose project. At the end of the second quarter, our net debt was approximately $4.9 billion, a reduction of about $150 million from $5.1 billion at the end of the first quarter.

隨著我們提高可靠性並從結構上降低整個網路的成本，我們在降低所營運煉油廠的成本方面繼續取得進展。12 億美元的資本投資包括維持整個業務的活動以及油砂領域的成長和優化資本，我們在油砂領域推進了重點項目，並在大西洋地區推進了 West White Rose 項目。截至第二季末，我們的淨債務約為 49 億美元，較第一季末的 51 億美元減少約 1.5 億美元。

In addition to reducing our debt, we returned $819 million to shareholders through dividends, share buybacks and the redemption of $150 million of preferred shares. We purchased approximately $300 million worth of shares through our NCIB in the quarter or about 17 million shares at an average price of about $17.50 per share. Non-cash working capital decreased by $923 million in the quarter, a significant contributor to our ability to continue to return cash to shareholders while further reducing our debt. We will continue to steward net debt towards our $4 billion target while remaining active with our NCIB.

除了減少債務外，我們還透過股息、股票回購和贖回 1.5 億美元優先股向股東返還了 8.19 億美元。本季度，我們透過 NCIB 購買了價值約 3 億美元的股票，約 1,700 萬股，平均價格約為每股 17.50 美元。本季非現金營運資本減少了 9.23 億美元，這對我們繼續向股東返還現金同時進一步減少債務的能力做出了重要貢獻。我們將繼續管理淨債務，朝著 40 億美元的目標邁進，同時繼續積極開展 NCIB 業務。

With the value we see in our shares today and with our growth projects on track to start up in the coming quarters. We continue to see a significant opportunity to increase our returns to shareholders going forward through share repurchases. To this end, the company purchased another $129 million worth of shares subsequent to the end of the quarter through July 28, there are about 6.6 million shares.

鑑於我們今天所看到的股票價值以及我們未來幾季將啟動的成長項目。我們繼續看到透過股票回購來增加未來股東回報的重大機會。為此，該公司在截至7月28日的季度結束後又回購了價值1.29億美元的股票，目前約有660萬股。

With that, I'll now turn the call back to Jon for some closing remarks.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給喬恩，請他發表一些結束語。

Great. And thank you, Kam. So as I touched on before, we had a terrific quarter and have successfully delivered on a number of key initiatives.

偉大的。謝謝你，Kam。正如我之前提到的，我們度過了一個非常棒的季度，並成功完成了許多關鍵舉措。

We completed the turnarounds of Foster Creek, Sunrise and Toledo, well ahead of schedule and under budget. We achieved first oil at Narrows Lake and are now bringing on new production from some of the best quality resource in the basin. We have begun hookup and commissioning of the West White Rose project ahead of schedule after successfully completing critical work to make the concrete gravity structure with the top sides in July.

我們提前完成了 Foster Creek、Sunrise 和 Toledo 的改造，並且沒有超出預算。我們在納羅斯湖首次開採出石油，目前正在從盆地中一些品質最好的資源中開採出新的石油。我們在 7 月成功完成了混凝土重力結構頂部安裝的關鍵工作後，已提前開始西白玫瑰專案的連接和調試。

And we've tied in 4 new steam generators at Foster Creek that brings us one step closer to completing the optimization project and adding over 30,000 barrels a day of production at Foster Creek. Our growth projects are approaching completion. Our major maintenance activities for the year are largely behind us, and we are focused on driving value from our operations. This is a pivotal moment for the company as we execute on our plan to deliver higher production and lower capital into 2026 and increased free funds flow. We have a clear view on the work in front of us and remain focused on creating long-term value for our shareholders.

我們在 Foster Creek 安裝了 4 台新的蒸汽發生器，這使我們距離完成優化項目和在 Foster Creek 增加每天 30,000 多桶的產量更近了一步。我們的成長項目即將完成。我們今年的主要維護活動已基本結束，我們專注於從營運中創造價值。這對公司來說是一個關鍵時刻，因為我們正在執行計劃，在 2026 年實現更高的產量和更低的資本，並增加自由資金流。我們對眼前的工作有著清晰的認識，並將繼續專注於為股東創造長期價值。

And with that, we're happy to answer any of your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Menno Hulshof, TD Cowen.

（操作員指示）Menno Hulshof，TD Cowen。

I'll start with a question on US downstream. And with the understanding that you don't disclose utilization by refinery, and you did touch on this to some degree in your opening remarks, but can we just get a rundown on the status of your PADD 2 operated refineries. And given that the little bit of downstream turn around own activity that was planned for looks to have been pushed to Q4. How would you frame the bookends for Q3 utilization in market capture?

我首先要問一個關於美國下游的問題。並且考慮到您沒有披露煉油廠的利用率，並且您在開場白中確實在一定程度上提到了這一點，但我們能否了解一下您 PADD 2 運營的煉油廠的狀況。鑑於原計劃進行的下游業務小幅扭虧為盈，預計將推遲至第四季。您如何規劃第三季市場佔領的使用率？

Yes. So the way I would frame it is, we've always talked about being competitive in the downstream, and we've defined that as kind of a Q1, Q2 cutoff point and we measure it using Solomon. So what we're driving towards is kind of that 98% availability right across the refining network that we have in the US. Today, all those refineries are kind of wide open. We're out of turnaround at Toledo. Everything is operating as we would expect it to, and we expect to see that through the third quarter.

是的。因此，我的想法是，我們一直在談論下游的競爭力，我們將其定義為 Q1、Q2 的截止點，並使用所羅門來衡量它。因此，我們的目標是使美國煉油網路的可用性達到 98%。如今，所有這些煉油廠都已全面開放。我們在托萊多已經沒有掉頭機會了。一切都按照我們預期的方式運行，我們預計第三季也將如此。

I think we have some scheduled maintenance is relatively small at Toledo, and we think that's probably the confusion with additional turnaround work but as in any refinery, you have regular scheduled maintenance that you undertake during the course of time. But if I kind of look out from now, the only big turnaround we have happens in 2026 at Lima and that looks like that's going to be in the back half of the year, Q3, Q4, and then 2027 at Toledo.

我認為我們在托萊多進行的一些定期維護相對較少，我們認為這可能與額外的周轉工作相混淆，但與任何煉油廠一樣，您需要在一段時間內進行定期的定期維護。但如果從現在來看，我們唯一的重大轉折點將發生在 2026 年的利馬，看起來這將是在今年下半年、第三季、第四季度，然後是 2027 年的托萊多。

So we are through this major maintenance cycle that we've been in over the last six quarters. And we're really looking forward to seeing what we can do over the next 12 months and then more broadly with much less maintenance going forward through '26, '27.

因此，我們已經經歷了過去六個季度以來的主要維護週期。我們非常期待看到我們在未來 12 個月內能夠做些什麼，然後在 26、27 年更廣泛地減少維護工作。

Terrific. And then maybe just flipping over to Rush Lake. It's good to hear that you've already developed a plan to restart the well. And I'm not going to ask for background the root cause because I know there's in ongoing investigation. But given that it's -- it looks to have been a casing failure on an injection well, can we assume there's minimal risk to Rush Lake design capacity and operating protocols. And are there any read-throughs at all for your other Lloyd projects?

了不起。然後也許就翻到拉什湖 (Rush Lake)。很高興聽到您已經制定了重啟油井的計劃。我不會詢問根本原因的背景，因為我知道調查仍在進行中。但考慮到這似乎是注入井套管故障，我們是否可以假設拉什湖的設計容量和操作協議的風險很小。您其他的 Lloyd 專案有經過通讀嗎？

Yes. I think out of an abundance of caution and conservatism, we've removed Rush Lake production for the rest of this year. So you're quite right. We're just finishing our root cause analysis and the investigation right now. We're confident that this is a casing failure on one well.

是的。我認為，出於謹慎和保守的考慮，我們在今年剩餘時間內停止了拉什湖的生產。所以你說得很對。我們現在剛完成根本原因分析和調查。我們確信這是一口井的套管損壞。

And as I said in my call notes, we've got control of the site we're moving to sort of the recovery phase of this, where we'll work with the regulator and convince ourselves that we've got a good safe start-up plan for this. But both two things need to come together, and we need to finish the investigation, but suffice it to say we're in the recovery portion of this incident.

正如我在通話記錄中所說，我們已經控制了現場，我們正在進入恢復階段，我們將與監管機構合作，並確信我們已經為此制定了良好的安全啟動計劃。但這兩件事需要結合起來，我們需要完成調查，但可以說我們正處於這起事件的恢復階段。

Dennis Fong, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行的 Dennis Fong。

I guess, first off, congrats on a really strong quarter. My first question here is just around next steps for some of these up-and-coming projects are ones that you're working on next. I know you've highlighted Sunrise, Lloyd thermal and conventional Lloyd heavy oil, including multi-labs as kind of potential next projects. Can you discuss around sizing of CapEx and how you would think about the cadence of growth as well as cadence of spending over the next few years as you kind of look towards these projects? As well as kind of how do you maybe rightsize them given obviously the volatile commodity price environment we're sitting in?

我想，首先，恭喜您本季業績表現強勁。我的第一個問題是關於這些新興項目的下一步計劃，這些項目是您接下來要開展的。我知道您已經強調了 Sunrise、Lloyd 熱能和常規 Lloyd 重油，包括多實驗室是潛在的下一個項目。您能否討論一下資本支出的規模，以及在展望這些項目時，您如何看待未來幾年的成長節奏以及支出節奏？考慮到我們所處的大宗商品價格波動環境，您如何調整它們的規模？

Yes. So as we've kind of signaled to the market, we're really coming to the end of an investment cycle that we've had in this business that started in '23 and really concludes this year. So we've been pretty clear that 2026 capital will be much reduced from where we were in '23, '24 and '25 and we've kind of use kind of a low $4 billion as a good marker for you to build into your models. One of the things that we think about as it relates to some of the shorter cycle assets that we've got. And I guess, in particular, as it relates to Lloydminster, we just feel like we've got some real tremendous structural advantages there and that we own a huge block of land.

是的。因此，正如我們向市場發出的信號，我們這個行業的投資週期即將結束，這個週期始於 2023 年，今年將真正結束。因此，我們已經非常清楚，2026 年的資本將比 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年的水平大幅減少，並且我們使用 40 億美元的低點作為一個很好的標記，供您納入模型中。我們考慮的事情之一與我們擁有的一些短週期資產有關。我想，特別是就洛伊德明斯特而言，我們覺得我們在那裡擁有一些真正的巨大的結構優勢，而且我們擁有一大片土地。

It's full of oil. We own all the infrastructure. We've got all the pipelines and then we have a lot of the royalty rights there as well. So as with any investment, we kind of right size it and we make sure that it returns capital and return on capital at $45. And then we kind of think about what's the right pacing and staging to use in terms of how big that investment needs to be. So we think about all kinds of things, like can we do this efficiently, and we have the drilling location sized and set up and ready to go and that pacing and staging.

裡面全是油。我們擁有所有的基礎設施。我們擁有所有的管道，我們也擁有很多特許權。因此，與任何投資一樣，我們會適當調整規模，並確保其資本回饋和資本回報率達到 45 美元。然後，我們會思考，在需要多投資的情況下，應該採取什麼樣的節奏和階段性措施才是正確的。因此，我們會考慮各種事情，例如我們能否有效地完成這項工作，我們已經確定了鑽井位置的尺寸並進行了設置，準備就緒，並且進行了節奏和分階段安排。

So I think when you think about 2026, it might be somewhere around the $150 million to $200 million range that we would put into that cold heavy oil business Lloyd that kind of supports growth in the kind of 10% range as we move towards 40,000 barrels a day. But like any investment, it's got to make money at $45.

因此，我認為，當你考慮 2026 年時，我們可能會向勞合社的冷重油業務投入 1.5 億至 2 億美元左右，這將支持我們朝著每天 40,000 桶的目標邁進，實現 10% 左右的增長。但與任何投資一樣，它必須以 45 美元的價格賺錢。

Great. Thanks, Jon. Really appreciate that color. My second question here and maybe a bit of a follow-on to Menno's first question, and frankly, not to belabor a focus on the US downstream now that you've completed major maintenance on Toledo. And obviously, Lima last year, can you talk towards what maybe your team saw or changed during those turnarounds that provide view in the teams with incremental confidence around kind of this runway for stronger operations going forward?

偉大的。謝謝，喬恩。真的很欣賞那個顏色。這是我的第二個問題，也許是對 Menno 第一個問題的延續，坦白說，既然您已經完成了托萊多的主要維護工作，那麼就不要過多地關注美國下游了。顯然，去年在利馬，您能否談談您的團隊在那些轉變過程中看到什麼或發生了哪些變化，這些轉變為團隊提供了對未來更強大運營的信心？

Yes. So we've now had a chance to get inside every asset except for Superior, which we rebuilt and restarted in 2023, '24 but in Superior for -- sorry, in Toledo, we had a chance to take the east side of the plant down the big units and the big money making units that we had a chance to get into for the first time were the isocracker, the crude unit, the reformer.

是的。因此，我們現在有機會進入除 Superior 之外的所有資產，Superior 我們在 2023 年、2024 年重建並重新啟動了 Superior，但在 Superior — — 對不起，在托萊多，我們有機會將工廠東側的大型裝置拆下來，而我們第一次有機會進入的賺錢大裝置是異構裂解器、原油大裝置和重構裝置。

I got inside the sulfur systems, the back tower, small cokers. The hydrogen plants and the flare. So those are pretty significant assets. And when we got inside them, we didn't find a significant amount of fund work, which is always a good thing. But the improvements that you make on that and getting everything clean dusted and gives you a much better confidence that you can continue to run those kind of assets.

我進入了硫磺系統、後塔和小型焦化器。氫能工廠和火炬。所以這些都是相當重要的資產。當我們深入其中時，我們並沒有發現大量的基金工作，這始終是一件好事。但是，您對此所做的改進以及使一切變得乾淨，會讓您更有信心繼續經營這類資產。

The reliability rates that we're looking for. So we were pleasantly surprised in the turnaround by what we didn't find, and we look forward to a good clean run in Toledo.

我們正在尋找的可靠性率。因此，我們對沒有發現的東西感到驚喜，我們期待在托萊多有一個順利的運行。

Greg Pardy, RBC Capital Markets.

格雷格·帕迪（Greg Pardy），加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Good questions so far. Jon, maybe just to switch into Asia for a minute, Liwan, Indonesia. As I sort of think about those assets, Liwan's not oil price driven. It's a good field, reduces your breakeven. But just curious how you sort of think about those two assets and how they fit in the portfolio long term.

到目前為止，問題都很好。喬恩，我們先轉到亞洲，印尼荔灣。當我思考這些資產時，我發現荔灣並不是用油價驅動的。這是一個很好的領域，可以降低你的損益平衡點。但我只是好奇您如何看待這兩種資產以及它們如何長期融入投資組合。

The way I think of both of them, Greg, is we have real competency inside our footprint, both in Asia and Indonesia. In Indonesia, we're a non-operated party within the South China Sea, we operate the deepwater. I think as you pointed out, these assets throw out a significant amount of free cash flow. So it's fixed price gas plus we get liquids. We produce that gas where we get about a $12 realization for it. We produce the gas for about $1. It's got very minimal capital requirements, sustaining capital requirements and the fiscal terms are actually quite good in terms of royalties and taxes.

格雷格，我認為他們兩人在亞洲和印尼都擁有真正的競爭力。在印度尼西亞，我們是南海的非營運方，我們經營深水區。我認為正如您所指出的，這些資產會產生大量的自由現金流。因此，這是固定價格的天然氣加上我們得到的液體。我們生產這種天然氣，並獲得了大約 12 美元的收益。我們生產天然氣的成本約為 1 美元。它的資本要求非常低，維持資本要求也非常低，而且在特許權使用費和稅收方面，財政條件實際上相當不錯。

So our strategic bent on those has really been to operate well and harvest cash from them. And I think, as you know, they kind of generate about $1 billion of free cash flow every year. And our goal there is really to try and extend the contractual terms around the gas sales and get as much free cash flow as we can out of those assets going forward. So it's kind of a harvest strategy today with an idea that we've got some contractual optimization to do it through time.

因此，我們的策略重點實際上是運作良好並從中獲取現金。而且我認為，正如你所知，他們每年可以產生大約 10 億美元的自由現金流。我們的目標實際上是嘗試延長天然氣銷售的合約條款，並從這些資產中獲取盡可能多的自由現金流。所以，今天的收穫策略是一種我們透過一些合約優化來實現的策略。

Okay. Makes complete sense. And just a quick one for Kam. I mean the working capital tailwind was huge in the quarter. Should we expect much of that to reverse in 3Q, 4Q you think?

好的。完全有道理。對 Kam 來說，這只是一個簡短的發言。我的意思是本季營運資金順風龐大。您認為我們是否應該預期這種情況會在第三季或第四季發生很大逆轉？

Greg, it's Kam. Well, I would say, number one, I think working capital is something we're always going to be focused on making sure we minimize it to the best we can. I think the tailwinds you saw in the second quarter, a big chunk of it was driven by just the price movement we saw in the quarter. So there's probably about a $400 million or $500 million impact on working capital release we had as it relates to commodity price changes on our inventory balances.

格雷格，我是卡姆。嗯，我想說，第一，我認為營運資金是我們始終要關注的重點，確保我們能將其最小化。我認為，第二季度看到的順風很大一部分是由我們在該季度看到的價格變動所推動的。因此，由於商品價格變動對我們的庫存餘額有影響，我們的營運資金釋放可能會受到約 4 億或 5 億美元的影響。

And then the second piece I would say is there was some tax refunds that we were expecting that we were able to bring in the door through the second quarter that amounted to a couple of hundred million dollars. So I think the goal for us is to try to minimize any builds in working capital. I think, obviously, timing of production to sales -- those types of things will always move around quarter-to-quarter, but I think the goal is to try to maintain and minimize and keep working capital as low as possible.

我想說的第二點是，我們預計第二季能夠獲得一些退稅，總額達到幾億美元。因此我認為我們的目標是盡量減少營運資本的增加。我認為，顯然，生產到銷售的時間——這些事情總是會逐季度變化，但我認為目標是盡量維持和最小化並保持盡可能低的營運資本。

So I wouldn't expect -- you're going to continue to see fluctuations because of commodity prices. But I think we're going to try to minimize that as much as we can. And I think, obviously, this quarter, that release really helped us not just deleverage but also continue on a fairly robust shareholder return program through the quarter.

所以我預計，商品價格不會繼續波動。但我認為我們會盡力將其最小化。我認為，顯然，本季的發布不僅幫助我們去槓桿，而且還幫助我們在整個季度繼續實施相當強勁的股東回報計劃。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Yes. Jon and team. You've been always very transparent about your perspective around M&A and have a long history of doing really good M&A, including the Husky deal. And then Certainly, that's been a lot of the investor focus and attention around certain assets. And just your perspective on whatever you can say, whatever comments you would make about M&A strategy and how do you think about a potential bolt-on deal?

是的。喬恩和團隊。您對併購的看法一直非常透明，並且長期以來一直有著出色的併購業績，包括赫斯基交易。當然，這已經引起了許多投資者對某些資產的關注。您對併購策略有何看法？您如何看待潛在的附加交易？

I don't think anything has changed in the way that we look at M&A. We have a portfolio that we quite like. We don't see any holes inside that portfolio. And as it relates to capital allocation, inorganic and organic opportunities need to compete. So nothing has really changed over the course of our tenure in terms of the way we look at M&A. And Neil, if you're thinking about a particular M&A piece, we're obviously not going to comment on that.

我認為我們看待併購的方式沒有任何改變。我們有一個非常喜歡的投資組合。我們沒有發現該投資組合有任何漏洞。就資本配置而言，無機機會和有機機會需要競爭。因此，就我們看待併購的方式而言，在我們任職期間，實際上沒有任何改變。尼爾，如果你正在考慮某個特定的併購項目，我們顯然不會對此發表評論。

And we'll look -- we'll just keep our eyes open, then we why don't we turn over to the operations here and talk about West White Rose, the gravity structure was -- is a big deal, getting that on. And just talk about now you're moving into hookup and commissioning. So what are the gating items? And remind us again what that translates to from a free cash flow perspective.

我們會觀察 — — 我們會保持警惕，然後我們為什麼不轉到這裡的行動並談論西白玫瑰，重力結構 — — 是一件大事，把它做好。現在就談談你們現在正在進入連線和調試階段。那麼門控項目有哪些呢？再次提醒我們，從自由現金流的角度來看這代表什麼。

Yes. So the last couple of years, starting with your free cash flow question, we've been investing about $800-plus million a year into that project. And that's all going to kind of flip over and generate about $800 million of free cash flow using kind of a $60 WTI, $63 Brent pricing when we reach full production at '27 -- or sorry, '28, '29 time frame. So it's a huge change in terms of cash flow generation versus cash flow consumption that we're really excited about. You're absolutely right.

是的。因此，從您提出的自由現金流問題開始，過去幾年我們每年向該專案投資約 8 億多美元。當我們在 27 年（或抱歉，28 年、29 年）達到全面生產時，這一切都將發生轉變，並以 60 美元的 WTI 價格和 63 美元的布倫特原油價格產生約 8 億美元的自由現金流。因此，就現金流產生與現金流消耗而言，這是一個巨大的變化，我們對此感到非常興奮。你說得完全正確。

It's a huge step for us to get this CGS on the seabed floor. And this was done with precision. It was done really, really well. And as I mentioned in my call is well ahead of schedule, and I'm always amazed at our technical people in this company, whether it's in oil sands or whether it's in the offshore or even in the projects group, what they're able to do and getting the top sides made it up with the gravity-based structure seamlessly as we did and with the precision that's involved was a real feat for this company and real credit to those people.

對我們來說，將 CGS 放置在海底是一大進步。而這過程完成得非常精確。確實做得非常好。正如我在電話中提到的那樣，我們的工作進度遠遠提前了，我一直對我們公司的技術人員感到驚訝，無論是在油砂領域，還是在海上，甚至是在項目組，他們能夠做到的事情以及像我們一樣無縫地將頂部與重力結構結合起來，而且所涉及的精度對於我們公司來說是一項真正的壯舉，也是對這些人的真正讚揚。

So the kind of -- if you're kind of looking at critical path now, the piece of commissioning that's on the critical path is getting the top sides welded to the gravity-based structure. It's a huge effort, and that will get underway in short order and we anticipate the entire commissioning and hookup scheduled to be about three months. And then prior to the end of the year, we will start drilling our first well. at the West White Rose project with first oil expected in early Q2 2026.

因此，如果您現在查看關鍵路徑，那麼關鍵路徑上的調試部分就是將頂部焊接到基於重力的結構上。這是一項巨大的工程，將在短時間內開始，我們預計整個調試和連接過程大約需要三個月。然後在今年年底之前，我們將開始在 West White Rose 項目中鑽探第一口井，預計第一批石油將於 2026 年第二季初產出。

Patrick O'Rourke, ATB Capital Markets.

奧羅克 (Patrick O'Rourke)，ATB 資本市場。

Just looking here, you're able to improve the outlook for the operating costs in the Canadian downstream unit with this update to guidance here. Wondering what the key drivers are here is that utilization? Is it reliability enhancement and margin capture? Or how much of that really came down to lower than anticipated gas prices in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

只需看一下這裡，您就可以透過此處的指南更新來改善加拿大下游單位的營運成本前景。想知道這裡的關鍵驅動因素是什麼，也就是利用率嗎？是增強可靠性和獲取利潤嗎？或者其中有多少實際上歸因於西加拿大沉積盆地的天然氣價格低於預期。

Yes. It's all of the above, Patrick. Any time you're trying to take costs out of our refining business and get unit cost down. Obviously, you're looking at the denominator as well as the numerator of the equation and getting good production on the top line is a big help. And when we ran those the upgrader and the refinery at the levels we did, you're going to see a consequence on your unit cost on the output of that equation.

是的。以上都是，派崔克。任何時候您都試圖降低煉油業務的成本並降低單位成本。顯然，您要考慮等式的分母和分子，獲得良好的頂線產量會有很大幫助。當我們按照我們所做的水平運行升級裝置和煉油廠時，您將看到該等式的輸出對單位成本的影響。

One of the things I'd tell you is I think Eric and his team, and I couldn't be more proud of these guys, not just in Lloydminster, but also in our operated refineries in PADD 2 have been grinding out costs over the last number of quarters. And there, they're kind of getting after this in a very tactical and in a very meaningful way. And what we've seen over the quarters is a continued reduction in not just the absolute spend. But as you get that better reliability and you're not spending as much on maintenance and you're getting the volumes that come through, it shows up in the numerator and the denominator of that equation.

我想告訴你的一件事是，我認為埃里克和他的團隊，我對這些人感到無比自豪，不僅在洛伊德明斯特，而且在我們運營的 PADD 2 煉油廠，在過去幾個季度裡一直在努力降低成本。他們正在以一種非常有策略且非常有意義的方式來實現這一目標。我們看到，在過去幾個季度中，不僅僅是絕對支出在持續減少。但是，當你獲得更好的可靠性，並且在維護上花費更少，並且獲得更大的收益時，它就會出現在這個等式的分子和分母中。

This is really blocking and tackling and this is getting under the covers of the business operating in a very deliberate and tactical way. And we think we've got more to come. So we're on a journey as it relates to unit costs. And these guys have been on it, and they continue to stay on it, driving that kind of performance. As it relates to energy and in particular, in Lloydminster, there's no doubt we benefit from reduced gas costs and reduced electricity prices but the same principles apply.

這實際上是一種阻攔和打擊，並以一種非常謹慎和有策略的方式掩蓋業務運作。我們相信我們還會取得更多成果。因此，我們正在進行與單位成本相關的探索。這些人一直在使用這種技術，並將繼續使用這種技術，推動這種性能的發揮。就能源而言，特別是在洛伊德明斯特，毫無疑問我們會受益於天然氣成本的降低和電價的降低，但同樣的原則也適用。

You're still trying to minimize the amount of gas you use and minimize the amount of electricity is and use it as well as possible. So -- all I'd say is this is really blocking and tackling 101, and Eric and his team have been all over this for some time, and we're seeing the results now.

您仍在嘗試盡量減少天然氣的消耗量和電量，並盡可能充分利用它們。所以 — — 我想說的是，這確實是阻止和解決問題的 101，而艾瑞克和他的團隊已經研究這個問題有一段時間了，現在我們看到了結果。

Okay. And then I was going to ask about West White Rose, but I hope it was pretty comprehensive there. So I'm just going to switch back to the US downstream and maybe as it relates to my last question. How low do you think you could get the operating costs there, what's -- if you could quantify the opportunity on a per unit basis.

好的。然後我本來想問一下關於 West White Rose 的問題，但我希望那裡的資訊比較全面。因此，我將回到美國下游，也許這與我的最後一個問題有關。您認為那裡的營運成本能降到多低？如果您能以單位量化機會，那又如何呢？

And then what's really -- when you think about the driver of incremental margin there between market capture, lower cost product slate optimization, what's really going to be the biggest driver of margin as we roll into the next 12 months where you don't have the same level of major turnaround activity that you've had through this quarter?

那麼，當您考慮市場佔領、低成本產品結構優化之間利潤增量的驅動因素時，當我們進入未來 12 個月時，如果你們沒有像本季度那樣出現同樣水平的重大扭虧為盈活動，那麼什麼才是利潤的最大驅動因素呢？

So there's always three drivers of margin in a refinery. One is you got to get the crude slate right, and I think we do a pretty good job of that. Differentials have been very tight as differentials or if differentials widen, we would capture more of that in our downstream and that's kind of a one-to-one relationship and the upgrader.

因此，煉油廠的利潤總是由三個驅動因素決定。一是你必須正確掌握原油狀況，我認為我們在這方面做得很好。差異一直非常小，或者如果差異擴大，我們將在下游捕獲更多，這是一對一的關係和升級。

And at Toledo and Superior in particular, we do have a pretty high diet of heavy oil. So as the differentials widen, you'll see margin capture in those three assets, in particular, those four, if you include the Lloyd refinery increase. We have a lot of work we're doing on the product side.

特別是在托萊多和蘇必利爾，我們的重油攝取量確實相當高。因此，隨著差異的擴大，你會看到這三項資產的利潤率上升，特別是如果算上勞埃德煉油廠的話，這四項資產的利潤率也會上升。我們在產品方面做了很多工作。

So product placement is another area where you can drive additional value and additional margin capture. And we've opened up the dock at Toledo. We think that's a very strategic asset. We continue to increase our terminal positions, not just in PADD 2, but we opened an asphalt refinery in PADD IV recently. That was part of our disclosure in the prior call. And we work that piece of it every day, so the commercial piece of the business works on it.

因此，產品置入是另一個可以帶來額外價值和額外利潤的領域。我們已經開放了托萊多的碼頭。我們認為這是一項非常具有策略意義的資產。我們繼續增加我們的終端位置，不僅在 PADD 2，而且我們最近在 PADD IV 開設了一家瀝青精煉廠。這是我們在之前的電話會議中披露的內容的一部分。我們每天都在處理這部分工作，因此業務的商業部分是圍繞著它進行的。

As it relates to unit costs, we've been pretty clear that we're not competitive on unit cost, and we need to get our unit costs down through time. We're going to do this in a smart way. We're not going to jeopardize reliability or safety to get there. But the trajectory that you've kind of seen that business on, I would expect it to continue through time.

就單位成本而言，我們已經非常清楚，我們在單位成本上沒有競爭力，我們需要隨著時間的推移降低單位成本。我們將以一種聰明的方式來做到這一點。我們不會為了達到這個目的而損害可靠性或安全性。但根據您所看到的業務軌跡，我預計它會隨著時間的推移而持續下去。

But we think there's probably another $2 per barrel that we can get out of our US refining assets through time. But that's going to be a journey is going to be something that we're going to be very deliberate about. And as I said before, we're not going to compromise reliability and safety, which are always kind of job one and running their refineries.

但我們認為，隨著時間的推移，我們可能還能從美國煉油資產中獲得每桶另外 2 美元的收益。但這將是一段旅程，也是我們要非常慎重考慮的事情。正如我之前所說，我們不會在可靠性和安全性方面做出妥協，這始終是煉油廠營運的首要任務。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

I just wanted to understand this a little bit. You were down for about a week because of the fire and then you probably took a week to ramp back up. And so just trying to understand the opportunity barrel that was lost. So if these fires would not have happened at all? What would be a good number in terms of the volume that would be higher for the quarter versus then is because of these fires.

我只是想稍微了解一下這一點。由於火災，你們停工了大約一周，然後可能又花了一周的時間才恢復正常。所以只是想了解失去的機會。那麼如果這些火災根本就不會發生呢？由於這些火災，本季的火災數量將比去年同期增加，這是一個不錯的數字。

Yes. So on Christina, I think that's the asset you're talking about. We were down for about 4 days. And then we ramped up to full production over the coming weeks. So about 11 days in total to go from a standing start to 250,000 barrels a day. And then adding up the barrels that we lost, it's about 2 million barrels. So if that were the number that you were going to use as the kind of LPL or lost profit opportunity, I think that would be a good number to put in your model.

是的。關於克里斯蒂娜，我認為這就是你所說的資產。我們停工了大約四天。然後我們在接下來的幾週內全面投入生產。因此，從零開始到每天 25 萬桶，總共需要大約 11 天的時間。然後把我們損失的石油加起來，大約有 200 萬桶。因此，如果您要將該數字用作 LPL 或利潤損失機會，那麼我認為這將是您模型中的一個不錯的數字。

That's exactly what I was looking for. And my second question to you was you generally have an informed view on the differentials, especially on the heavy side. So multiple things going on here, OPEC raising some volumes, then Chevron getting to drill bad, but then very high US utilization and desire for heavy barrels. So like what's your outlook for the heavy light differential into the year-end?

這正是我所尋找的。我要問您的第二個問題是，您對差異，特別是重型方面的差異，總體上有一個明智的看法。這裡發生了多種情況，石油輸出國組織 (OPEC) 增加了一些產量，然後雪佛龍的鑽探情況變得糟糕，但美國的利用率非常高，對重油的需求也很高。那麼，您對年底的輕重差異有何展望？

Well, Geoffrey gets paid to provide insights on these kind of questions. Maybe I'll turn it over to him.

嗯，傑弗裡因提供此類問題的見解而獲得報酬。也許我會把它交給他。

Sure thing, Jon. Manav, there's sort of two parts to that. there'd be what is the differential in Alberta? And what is the differential in the US Gulf Coast.

當然可以，喬恩。Manav，這有兩個部分。阿爾伯塔省的差異是什麼？那麼美國墨西哥灣沿岸的差異是什麼呢？

And I think you were referencing a lot of global things that impact that US Gulf Coast differential. We've seen that be quite narrow compared to history, sort of a minus 2, minus 3 to WTI, and that's been obviously appropriate for where things have been -- looking forward, I think the question you need to ask yourself and answer is, if there is increased OPEC plus production, when does that come and how much is it because much of that volume would be medium sour, which tends to have an impact on the dip in the Gulf.

我認為您提到了很多影響美國墨西哥灣沿岸差異的全球性因素。我們看到，與歷史相比，這一幅度相當窄，相當於 WTI 的負 2 或負 3，這顯然適合當前的情況——展望未來，我認為你需要問自己並回答的問題是，如果 OPEC 增加產量，那麼什麼時候會發生，增產幅度是多少，因為其中大部分是中酸性原油，這往往會對墨西哥灣的油價下跌產生影響。

I wouldn't see that going anywhere further past what is more a normal long-run average of maybe $2 wider, minus 3, minus 4, minus 5. That tends to percolate back into Alberta. And then I would say on Alberta, it's the same thing I probably said the last couple of quarters. TMX is here. And TMX is working and TMX is doing what it's supposed to do, which is to maintain the Alberta differential quite tight to the Gulf Coast. And I think we would see that persist definitely through the fourth quarter.

我不認為它會超出正常的長期平均值，即可能增加 2 美元、減少 3 美元、減少 4 美元、減少 5 美元。這種影響往往會回流到阿爾伯塔省。然後我想說的是，關於阿爾伯塔省，我可能在過去幾季說過同樣的話。TMX 就在這裡。TMX 正在發揮作用，並且正在做它應該做的事情，那就是將阿爾伯塔省的差異保持在與墨西哥灣沿岸相當緊密的位置。我認為這種情況肯定會持續到第四季。

Thank you. At this time, we have no questions in the queue.

謝謝。目前，我們隊列中沒有問題。

(Operator Instructions) Emma Graney, The Global Mail.

（操作員指示）艾瑪·格雷尼 (Emma Graney)，《全球郵報》。

I'm just curious to get your take on the new policy environment that we're seeing from Ottawa, Bill C5 and that kind of thing. And where you think this might set Canada going forward, particularly with Cenovus and opportunities?

我只是好奇想知道您對渥太華的新政策環境、C5 法案等有何看法。您認為這會為加拿大帶來哪些發展機遇，尤其是 Cenovus 和機會？

Okay. Well, thanks for your question. I'm going to turn this over to Jeff Lawson to give you an answer.

好的。嗯，謝謝你的提問。我將把這個問題交給傑夫·勞森來回答你。

Good. I'll give you a bit of an answer. I think the federal liberal government has been the most constructive with us and our industry than we've seen in the course of the past decade. So they're out here often they're visiting, and they're really trying to make an effort, I think, to improve the Canadian economy.

好的。我會給你一點答案。我認為聯邦自由政府對我們和我們的行業表現出了比過去十年中任何時候都更具建設性的幫助。所以他們經常來這裡訪問，我認為他們確實在努力改善加拿大的經濟。

So those are bringing in on major projects. I think they're well intentioned. They've got a lot of work to do with industry and with the provinces to get things done.

所以這些都是在引進重大計畫。我認為他們是出於好意。他們還有很多工作要做，包括與工業界和各省的合作。

And what we say is perfectly consistent. We love the notion new projects and strengthening the Canadian economy. At the same time, we need to take a step back and say, what's precluding us from proceeding with these things. And really, there's a lot of regulatory hurdles. So there's a lot of talk about an energy corridor or new pipe to the coast that we still have a tanker ban and emissions cap methane regulations and industrial carbon tax that isn't competitive with other jurisdictions.

和我們所說的話是完全一致的。我們喜歡新項目和加強加拿大經濟的想法。同時，我們需要退一步思考，是什麼阻礙了我們繼續做這些事情。但事實上，存在著許多監管障礙。因此，關於能源走廊或通往海岸的新管道有很多討論，但我們仍然實施油輪禁令、甲烷排放上限法規和工業碳稅，這與其他司法管轄區沒有競爭力。

So those are things we need to see, we think, change for major projects to occur and I'd say the good thing is that the governments are all engaging in those discussions and being thoughtful about what we're putting forth to them. So I'm cautiously optimistic we're moving in the right direction, but we've got a ways to go.

因此，我們認為，這些都是我們需要看到的變化，以便實現重大項目，我想說的是，各國政府都在參與這些討論，並認真考慮我們向他們提出的內容。因此，我謹慎樂觀地認為我們正朝著正確的方向前進，但我們還有很長的路要走。

Great. The other thing -- the other thing I was going to ask is basically, when you come to that policy kind of change, I know you don't want to weigh in on M&A and MEG specifically. But I'm curious whether this broader policy change kind of shift anything in the energy environment and infrastructure environment when it comes to mergers and acquisitions.

偉大的。另一件事——我要問的另一件事基本上是，當你談到這種政策變化時，我知道你不想特別關注 M&A 和 MEG。但我很好奇，在併購方面，這種更廣泛的政策變化是否會對能源環境和基礎設施環境產生任何影響。

I think it just everything positively. I think just going back over the past decade, we've seen a flight foreign direct investment in this country in all sectors because we have uncertainty of regulation. We have burdens and regulations. They're long-time frames to get projects done, which are not competitive with other places. If we become more competitive, we'll become more attractive to foreign capital, we'll see higher valuations in various industries in different companies and would be more inclined to pursue organic and inorganic growth.

我認為一切都是正面的。我認為，回顧過去十年，我們看到這個國家各個領域的外國直接投資都在減少，因為我們對監管存在不確定性。我們有負擔和規定。它們是用較長的時間來完成專案的，與其他地方相比沒有競爭力。如果我們的競爭力增強，我們對外資的吸引力就會增強，不同產業的公司估值就會更高，我們也會更傾向於追求有機成長和無機成長。

So we'll have the funding to pursue organic growth, and we'll also have the funding and backing everyone will to pursue more M&A initiatives instead of simply returning capital to shareholders. So I think it's a virtuous circle, and it would drive more M&A.

因此，我們將擁有資金來追求有機成長，我們也將擁有資金和支持，每個人都將追求更多的併購計劃，而不是簡單地將資本回饋給股東。所以我認為這是一個良性循環，它將推動更多的併購。

There are no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Jon McKenzie.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將會議交給喬恩·麥肯齊先生。

Great. And thanks, everybody, for their questions today and for those of you online, we absolutely appreciate your interest in the company, and please enjoy a great day. Thank you.

偉大的。感謝大家今天提出的問題以及在線提問的各位，我們非常感謝你們對公司的關注，祝大家度過愉快的一天。謝謝。

This concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Thank you for participating in today's conference and have a great day.

今天的節目到此結束。你們都可以斷開連線。感謝您參加今天的會議並祝您度過愉快的一天。