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Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Cenovus Energy's Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2023 Results. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
女士們先生們,美好的一天,謝謝你們的支持。歡迎閱讀 Cenovus Energy 的 2023 年第四季和年底業績。提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音。
(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this conference call may not be recorded or rebroadcast without the expressed consent of Cenovus Energy. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Jason Abbate, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Go ahead, Mr. Abbate.
(操作員說明)請注意,未經 Cenovus Energy 明確同意,不得錄製或轉播本次電話會議。我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁傑森·阿巴特 (Jason Abbate) 先生。繼續吧,阿巴特先生。
Jason Abbate - SVP of IR
Jason Abbate - SVP of IR
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cenovus 2023 Year-end and Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. On the call this morning are CEO, Jon McKenzie, joined by Cenovus' management team will take you through our results. Then we'll open the line to take your questions. Prior to passing it over to Jon, I refer you to our advisories located at the end of today's news release. Please describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures and oil and gas terms referred to today.
謝謝你,接線生。大家早安,歡迎參加 Cenovus 2023 年年終和第四季業績電話會議。今天早上參加電話會議的執行長 Jon McKenzie 和 Cenovus 的管理團隊將向您介紹我們的結果。然後我們將開通專線回答您的問題。在將其交給喬恩之前,我建議您參閱今天新聞稿末尾的建議。請描述今天提到的前瞻性資訊、非公認會計原則措施以及石油和天然氣術語。
They also outline risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. Additional information is available in Cenovus annual MD&A and our most recent AIF and Form 40-F. All figures are presented in Canadian dollars and before royalties unless otherwise stated. You can view the results on our website at cenovus.com. (Operator Instructions) Jon, please go ahead.
他們也概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素和假設。更多資訊請參閱 Cenovus 年度 MD&A 以及我們最新的 AIF 和表格 40-F。除非另有說明,所有數字均以加幣表示,且不含特許權使用費。您可以在我們的網站 cenovus.com 上查看結果。 (操作員指示)喬恩,請繼續。
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Great. Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everybody. I'm going to highlight some important safety milestones that we achieved in the fourth quarter of 2023 and in the full year. We achieved a total recordable injury frequency of 0.31 in 2023. And importantly, we noted a marked decrease in the potential severity of our safety incidents, a trend we are very focused on continuously improving.
偉大的。謝謝傑森,大家早安。我將重點介紹我們在 2023 年第四季和全年實現的一些重要安全里程碑。 2023 年,我們的可記錄傷害總頻率為 0.31。重要的是,我們注意到安全事故的潛在嚴重性顯著下降,我們非常注重不斷改進這一趨勢。
2023 was an important year which included the restart of 2 refineries and the progression of the West White Rose project, which today stands at 75% complete. And we did this as we would expect, without a significant incident. I'm proud of the team for their continued focus on safety and what they've accomplished over the year. Early in 2023, we signaled that the first 2 quarters of the year would be impacted by the start-up of Superior and the delayed closing and start-up of Toledo.
2023 年是重要的一年,其中包括兩家煉油廠的重啟以及 West White Rose 計畫的進展,目前已完成 75%。我們按照預期做到了這一點,沒有發生重大事件。我為團隊對安全的持續關注以及他們一年來所取得的成就感到自豪。 2023 年初,我們曾表示,今年前兩個季度將受到蘇必利爾的啟動以及托萊多的延遲關閉和啟動的影響。
We also signaled that we expected to have our full suite of assets operation available to us in the third and fourth quarters. Our fourth quarter reflects the results of the second consecutive quarter of operating or integrated value chain. Our upstream business continued to build on operating momentum. We increased production to nearly 810,000 barrels of oil per day, our highest quarterly number for this year and the second highest in the company's history.
我們也表示,我們預計將在第三季和第四季提供全套資產營運。我們的第四季反映了連續第二季的營運或綜合價值鏈的結果。我們的上游業務持續保持經營勢頭。我們將石油產量提高到每天近 81 萬桶,這是今年季度最高產量,也是公司歷史上第二高的產量。
This is something we are extraordinarily proud of. We saw a particularly strong performance at our oil sands assets, most notably at Foster Creek. The ramp-up of new sustaining pads added about 10,000 barrels a day of increased production relative to the third quarter, taking this asset to nearly 200,000 barrels per day. We also started steaming our first sustaining well pad at Sunrise, and we have 2 more well pads to bring on in 2024. This is the first step in our multiyear development of this asset that will see us push production volumes to or through nameplate capacity.
這是我們感到非常自豪的事。我們的油砂資產表現特別強勁,尤其是 Foster Creek。與第三季相比,新維持墊的增加使產量每天增加約 10,000 桶,使該資產達到每天近 20 萬桶。我們也在Sunrise 開始營運我們的第一個維持井場,我們還有2 個井場將在2024 年投入使用。這是我們多年開發該資產的第一步,我們將把產量推至或超過銘牌產能。
Our upstream business generated an operating margin of about $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, and this reflects higher production, lower unit OpEx but also lower crude prices and wider heavy oil differentials. Now with the start-up of the TMX pipeline, we anticipate light-heavy differentials to narrow. This is an important piece of infrastructure and creates additional egress in the Western Canadian basin and Cenovus' an anchor shipper. Our oil sands and thermal assets continue to perform exceptionally well as we enter 2024. We are focused on executing our capital plans at Christina Lake, Foster Creek, Sunrise in support of the organic growth of this business over the next 2 years.
我們的上游業務在第四季度產生了約 25 億美元的營業利潤,這反映了產量的增加、單位營運支出的降低,以及原油價格的下降和重油差異的擴大。現在,隨著 TMX 管道的啟動,我們預計輕重差異將縮小。這是一項重要的基礎設施,為加拿大西部盆地和 Cenovus 的主要托運商創造了額外的出口。進入 2024 年,我們的油砂和熱資產繼續表現出色。我們專注於執行 Christina Lake、Foster Creek、Sunrise 的資本計劃,以支持該業務在未來 2 年內的有機增長。
In our conventional business, fourth quarter production volumes remained steady around 124,000 BOE per day. And the business was consistent and stable after dealing with wildfires through much of the summer. Offshore production reached about 70,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter, a 6% increase quarter-over-quarter. And in Asia Pacific, gas volumes were up by about 20% in Indonesia as we brought on the MAC field in September. Our Asia Pacific business continues to generate great -- with great predictability, generating about $1 billion of operating margin for the year.
在我們的常規業務中,第四季度產量穩定在每天 124,000 桶油當量左右。在整個夏季的大部分時間都在應對野火之後,業務一直保持穩定。第四季海上產量達到約 7 萬桶/日,季增 6%。在亞太地區,隨著我們在 9 月投入 MAC 油田,印尼的天然氣產量增加了約 20%。我們的亞太業務持續取得巨大成果——具有很強的可預測性,全年營業利潤率約為 10 億美元。
In the Atlantic region, the Terra Nova FPSO returned to production in late November, contributing about 4,000 barrels a day to Cenovus in the month of December. The operator has since seen a ramp-up of production in the field and is working towards the asset being increased to full rates. We also advanced work for the regulatory dry dock of the SeaRose FPSO. In late December, the vessel was taken off station. The vessel has now arrived in Belfast and maintenance work has begun.
在大西洋地區,Terra Nova FPSO於11月底恢復生產,12月每天向Cenovus供應約4,000桶石油。此後,該業者看到該油田的產量增加,並正在努力將資產提高到滿載。我們也推進了 SeaRose FPSO 監理乾船塢的工作。 12月下旬,該船離港。該船現已抵達貝爾法斯特,維護工作已經開始。
We anticipate the SeaRose to return in the third quarter of 2024. The investments we are making today ensure the vessel will be ready well in advance of the start-up of the West White Rose project, supporting production from that field well into the late 2030s. Overall, it's been a very strong quarter and a very strong start to 2024 for upstream businesses. Consistent with our guidance, planned turnaround activity will occur in the third quarter, and we expect to grow production, exiting the year at higher production rates.
我們預計 SeaRose 將於 2024 年第三季回歸。我們今天進行的投資確保該船將在 West White Rose 項目啟動之前做好準備,支持該油田的生產直至 2030 年代末。總體而言,對於上游業務來說,這是一個非常強勁的季度,也是 2024 年的一個非常強勁的開端。根據我們的指導,計劃中的周轉活動將在第三季度發生,我們預計產量將增加,以更高的生產力結束今年。
Turning to the downstream. The fourth quarter was another good step forward for our operated refining businesses. In Canadian refining, crude utilization was 91% in the fourth quarter. The Lloydminster Upgrader and refinery demonstrated consistent and strong performance. This performance has continued in the first quarter as we prepare for a major turnaround of the Lloydminster Upgrader beginning in the second quarter. We anticipate the quarterly throughput impact to be about 42,000 to 46,000 barrels a day, consistent with guidance.
轉向下游。第四季是我們經營的煉油業務又向前邁出了良好的一步。加拿大煉油廠第四季原油利用率為 91%。勞埃德明斯特升級廠和煉油廠表現出一致且強勁的性能。隨著我們為第二季度開始的勞埃德明斯特升級計劃的重大轉變做準備,這一表現在第一季度得到了延續。我們預計季度吞吐量影響約為每天 42,000 至 46,000 桶,與指導一致。
And coming out of the turnaround, we expect the Lloyd complex to continue to run reliably with high rates of utilization for the foreseeable future. In U.S. refining, our operated assets continue to run safely and reliably, performing mostly as expected. I'm very pleased with the improvements we continue to make in this business. The Toledo refinery ran steadily over the quarter and was able to take advantage of the wider light-heavy crude differentials.
在扭虧為盈後,我們預計勞埃德綜合體在可預見的未來將繼續可靠運行,利用率高。在美國煉油領域,我們營運的資產持續安全可靠地運行,表現基本上符合預期。我對我們在這項業務中不斷取得的進步感到非常滿意。托萊多煉油廠本季運作穩定,並能夠利用更廣泛的輕質原油差異。
We also completed planned maintenance of the distillate hydrotreater at the Lima Refinery in the quarter. We expect this asset to run at high levels of utilization through the first 3 quarters of this year going into the fourth quarter turnaround. Now we continue to have some challenges in the Superior Refinery. You'll see the throughput was in line with the prior quarter. We're working to improve reliability, which will allow us to increase crude throughput in the second quarter of 2024.
本季我們也完成了利馬煉油廠餾分油加氫處理裝置的計畫維護。我們預計該資產在今年前三個季度將保持高利用率,直到第四季實現扭虧為盈。現在我們在高級煉油廠仍然面臨一些挑戰。您會看到吞吐量與上一季一致。我們正在努力提高可靠性,這將使我們能夠在 2024 年第二季增加原油吞吐量。
Our non-operated Borger Refinery underwent significant planned maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the operator experienced significant delays bringing the facility back up, which impacted utilization and profitability in the quarter. This refinery is now operating at full rates. The most notable item in the fourth quarter results was the weak Chicago crack crush environment and volatility quarter-over-quarter. The Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread averaged USD 13.24 per barrel, a decline of over 50% compared to the third quarter.
我們未營運的博格煉油廠在第四季度進行了大規模的計劃維護,而營運商在恢復設施方面經歷了嚴重的延誤,這影響了本季度的利用率和盈利能力。該煉油廠目前正在全速運轉。第四季業績中最引人注目的一點是芝加哥裂解壓榨環境疲軟和季度環比波動。芝加哥3-2-1裂解價差平均為每桶13.24美元,較第三季下降超過50%。
The December crack averaged USD 7.65 per barrel and at times gasoline cracks were negative, which caused us to respond by economically optimizing throughput. This not only drove lower U.S. refining operating margin in the fourth quarter, but also lower throughput, and contributed to a significant FIFO headwind in the U.S. refining about $450 million as we processed higher priced crudes that were purchased in prior periods.
12 月的裂解價平均為每桶 7.65 美元,有時汽油裂解價為負,這促使我們透過經濟優化吞吐量來應對。這不僅導致第四季度美國煉油業務利潤率下降,而且吞吐量也下降,並導緻美國煉油業務因先進先出(FIFO)逆風而損失約4.5 億美元,因為我們加工了前期購買的價格較高的原油。
Now the weak crack environment has persisted through the month of January with an average Chicago 3-2-1 benchmark of about USD 5.50 per barrel. But recently, the Chicago refining crack environment has improved. Cracks have risen into the low teens and the high 20s. And with seasonal impacts easing and product inventories rebalancing as well as refineries entering the turnaround season, we anticipate seeing more normalized cracks going forward.
目前,疲軟的裂縫環境一直持續到 1 月份,芝加哥 3-2-1 基準平均價格約為每桶 5.50 美元。但近期,芝加哥煉油裂解環境有所改善。裂縫已經上升到十幾歲到二十幾歲。隨著季節性影響的緩解和產品庫存的重新平衡以及煉油廠進入周轉季節,我們預計未來會出現更多正常化的裂縫。
We expect to continuously improve our operating and financial performance in this business as we produce refined products into this pricing tailwind. Now to our corporate and financial performance. In the fourth quarter, Cenovus delivered approximately $2.1 billion of adjusted funds flow. As mentioned, the upstream business was impacted by lower realized prices with wider WTI-WCS differentials. And the downstream was impacted by lower refined product pricing in the U.S. and a negative FIFO impact.
隨著我們在這項定價順風中生產精煉產品,我們預計將持續改善該業務的營運和財務表現。現在談談我們的公司和財務表現。第四季度,Cenovus 交付了約 21 億美元的調整後資金流。如前所述,上游業務受到實際價格下降以及 WTI-WCS 價差擴大的影響。下游受到美國成品油定價下降和先進先出的負面影響的影響。
Through our base dividend, share buybacks and final payment of the common share warrant obligation, we distributed over $700 million directly to our shareholders in the fourth quarter. In addition, the company's net debt was approximately $5.1 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, a reduction of more than $900 million from the third quarter, which reflects a working capital release as well as the application of free cash flow.
透過基本股利、股票回購和普通股認股權證義務的最終支付,我們在第四季直接向股東分配了超過 7 億美元。此外,第四季末該公司的淨債務約為51億美元,較第三季減少逾9億美元,這反映了營運資金的釋放以及自由現金流的運用。
We remain focused on achieving our $4 billion net debt target and delivering 100% of excess refunds flow to our shareholders once this milestone is met. So looking back at 2023, there are some important achievements I'd like to highlight. We delivered safe and reliable upstream performance throughout the year while responding to the significant wildfire activity in our conventional areas in the spring and summer and safely executed a major turnaround at Foster Creek in the second quarter.
我們仍然致力於實現 40 億美元的淨債務目標,並在實現這一里程碑後向股東提供 100% 的超額退款。回顧 2023 年,我想強調一些重要成就。我們全年提供安全可靠的上游性能,同時應對春季和夏季常規地區的重大野火活動,並在第二季度安全地在福斯特溪實現了重大轉變。
We successfully delivered our capital spending guidance in 2023, with total investments of $4.3 billion and achieved several key project milestones as planned. We materially progressed construction of the West White Rose project, which, as I mentioned, is now about 75% complete and reached a major milestone in the second quarter with the completion of the ConocoPhillips (inaudible) on the gravity-based structure. At Christina Lake, we achieved approximately 45% completion of our Narrows Lake tie-back pipeline on time and on budget.
我們成功交付了 2023 年資本支出指引,總投資達 43 億美元,並按計畫實現了多個關鍵項目里程碑。我們在West White Rose 項目的建設中取得了實質進展,正如我所提到的,該項目現已完成約75%,並在第二季度達到了一個重要里程碑,康菲石油公司(聽不清)在重力結構上的完工。在克里斯蒂娜湖,我們按時按預算完成了 Narrows Lake 回接管道的約 45%。
This will allow us to produce our high-quality, low SOR resource back to the Christina Lake processing facility. We further integrated our heavy oil production and refining capabilities through the acquisition of the remaining 50% of the Toledo refinery and we safely return that refinery to full operations in June. We brought Superior Online and combined with Toledo, we added approximately 130,000 barrels a day of refining capacity much of that heavy oil refining capacity.
這將使我們能夠生產出高品質、低 SOR 的資源返回克里斯蒂娜湖處理設施。透過收購托萊多煉油廠剩餘 50% 的股份,我們進一步整合了我們的重油生產和煉油廠能力,並於 6 月安全地使該煉油廠恢復全面運作。我們引入了 Superior Online,並與托萊多合併,每天增加了約 13 萬桶的煉油能力,其中大部分為重油煉油能力。
We reduced our long-term debt by almost $1.6 billion, with USD 1 billion of that being repurchased debt. We also strengthened our credit ratings during the year with a credit rating upgrade from Fitch ratings to BBB stable and a change in our Moody's outlook from stable to positive. We generated nearly $9 billion of adjusted funds flow in the year. This enabled us to deliver around $2.8 billion to shareholders through our base dividend, the purchase of common shares and the purchase and cancellation of about 46 million Cenovus warrants.
我們將長期債務減少了近 16 億美元,其中 10 億美元用於回購債務。年內,我們也加強了信用評級,將信用評級從惠譽評級上調至 BBB 穩定,並將穆迪展望從穩定調整為正面。今年我們產生了近 90 億美元的調整後資金流。這使我們能夠透過基本股息、購買普通股以及購買和取消約 4,600 萬份 Cenovus 認股權證,向股東交付約 28 億美元。
We end 2023 on a strong note operation, and we'll continue to build on this through the year. 2024 will be focused on achieving our $4 billion net debt target, progressing our high-return growth projects in the upstream and continuing to improve the profitability of the downstream business while running it safely and reliably. Ultimately, as part of our capital allocation framework, we look forward to shifting to 100% of excess free funds flow going back to shareholders. We are well positioned as a company.
我們將以強勁的營運結束 2023 年,並將在這一年中繼續以此為基礎。 2024年我們將重點實現40億美元的淨債務目標,推進上游高回報成長項目,並在安全可靠運作的同時繼續提高下游業務的獲利能力。最終,作為我們資本配置框架的一部分,我們預期將多餘的自由資金流 100% 返還給股東。作為一家公司,我們處於有利的地位。
The achievements I just spoke to set us up well for 2024 and will continue to generate value for years to come. On March 5, we'll be hosting an Investor Day, and I welcome you to attend to hear more about our strategy and detailed 5-year plans at that time. And with that, I'll stop, and we're happy to take your questions.
我剛才談到的成就為我們 2024 年奠定了良好的基礎,並將在未來幾年繼續創造價值。 3 月 5 日,我們將舉辦投資者日活動,歡迎您參加,以了解更多有關我們屆時的策略和詳細的 5 年計劃。說到這裡,我就停下來,我們很樂意回答你的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Dennis Fong at CIBC Capital Markets.
(操作員說明)第一個問題來自 CIBC 資本市場部的 Dennis Fong。
Dennis Fong - Director of Product Strategy and Research
Dennis Fong - Director of Product Strategy and Research
Maybe starting with the downstream here. Do you mind discussing some of the opportunities that you're currently working on to help improve cost structure to run time and margin from the downstream business, especially now that you have running and own and operate those 3 refineries in the U.S.?
也許從這裡的下游開始。您是否介意討論一下您目前正在努力幫助改善下游業務的運行時間和利潤的成本結構的一些機會,特別是現在您已經在美國經營、擁有和運營這 3 家煉油廠?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Sure. So I'll let Keith answer the question. But as you know, Dennis, Toledo and Lima are sister refineries and their pipeline interconnected, which does give us some opportunities to improve the integration of those 2 refineries and the overall synergy that we hope to capture when we bought that refinery. Superior, there's lots of opportunities that we think in the future, we'll be able to take advantage of the focus today really though it's bringing up that refinery to full capacity and running that in a reliable way. But maybe, Keith, you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of opportunities in the refining sector.
當然。那我就讓基斯來回答這個問題。但如您所知,丹尼斯、托萊多和利馬是姐妹煉油廠,它們的管道相互連接,這確實給了我們一些機會來改善這兩個煉油廠的整合以及我們在購買該煉油廠時希望所獲得的整體協同效應。優越的是,我們認為未來有很多機會,我們將能夠真正利用今天的焦點,儘管它正在使煉油廠滿載運轉並以可靠的方式運作。但基思,您也許可以談談您所看到的煉油產業的機會。
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Yes. Thanks for the question, Dennis. I think in our guidance, you'll see a noticeable step-up in our utilization in the downstream, U.S. downstream in 2024 versus 2023. 2023 was really a year of restarting the refineries and 2024 is a year of running the refineries. We are pretty happy with -- you may remember the -- a little bit of cold snap in January that we had and the refiners ran through that reasonably well. So we're really focused on now running these well and capturing the margin out of the back end of them.
是的。謝謝你的提問,丹尼斯。我認為在我們的指導中,您會看到我們在下游(美國下游)的利用率在2024 年與2023 年相比顯著提高。2023 年實際上是煉油廠重新啟動的一年,2024 年是煉油廠運作的一年。我們很高興——你可能還記得——一月份我們經歷了一點寒流,煉油廠很好地度過了這段時期。因此,我們現在真正專注於運行好這些並從它們的後端獲取利潤。
And reliability improvements will persist and continue. But in general, the kit is running well. Obviously, in January, cracks were still pretty weak, as Jon alluded to in his opening remarks, but we saw that change in February and the kit ramped up the MAX throughput and did it reliably. So we're pretty happy with what we're seeing. We'll continue to focus on ensuring long-term reliability of these assets and full integration with over 110,000 barrels a day of increased heavy conversion capacity in this kit now that it's running. We have lots of opportunity and optionality to move our barrels down into this PADD II network and capture the margins out of the back end.
可靠性的改進將持續下去。但總的來說,該套件運作良好。顯然,正如喬恩在開場白中提到的那樣,在一月份,裂縫仍然相當微弱,但我們在二月份看到了這種變化,並且該套件提高了最大吞吐量並可靠地做到了這一點。所以我們對所看到的非常滿意。我們將繼續專注於確保這些資產的長期可靠性,並在該套件運行後與每天超過 110,000 桶增加的重型轉換能力完全整合。我們有很多機會和選擇將我們的桶移入 PADD II 網路並從後端獲取利潤。
Dennis Fong - Director of Product Strategy and Research
Dennis Fong - Director of Product Strategy and Research
Great. I appreciate that color there. My second question here, maybe shifting gears a little bit. It seems like there was obviously significant progress made on lowering outstanding leverage. I guess, that progress, as you alluded to in the prepared remarks, was driven a little bit by the changes or the unwinding of working capital. As we think about this going forward, can we -- or can you provide maybe a little bit of a structure or an idea as to what may be a normalized rate of like net debt pay down might be and are there any onetime items we should watch out for in the next couple of quarters?
偉大的。我很欣賞那裡的顏色。我的第二個問題,也許稍微改變一下。看來在降低未償槓桿方面明顯取得了重大進展。我想,正如您在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,這一進展在一定程度上是由營運資金的變化或放鬆所推動的。當我們思考這個問題時,我們能否——或者您能否提供一點結構或想法,說明淨債務償還等正常化利率可能是什麼,以及是否有任何我們應該採取的一次性項目接下來幾個季度要注意什麼?
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Dennis, it's Kam. So a couple of things I would highlight. Yes, you did notice we had a working capital release through the fourth quarter. And that's really a combination of, I would say, slightly lower absolute levels of inventory and also the change that you saw in pricing. When you think about, I guess, anything unusual coming, I think we've articulated this previously. I think the only change that's really I would highlight is -- we're obviously continuing to wait for a lion fill on TMX.
丹尼斯,我是卡姆。我想強調幾件事。是的,您確實注意到我們在第四季度釋放了營運資金。我想說,這實際上是庫存絕對水平略低以及定價變化的結合。我想,當你想到即將發生的任何不尋常的事情時,我想我們之前已經闡明過這一點。我認為我真正要強調的唯一變化是——我們顯然會繼續等待 TMX 上的獅子填充。
We've had a small portion called, but we've got amounts still that's -- we still owe them to fill that line on the timing that they start up that line. So you should expect probably about 1 million barrels increment as a result of that. So that will likely happen here between now and kind of middle of this year. So other than that, I would say, you shouldn't expect anything else material. I think, generally speaking, the trajectory you saw in the debt in the fourth quarter is really strong.
我們已經調用了一小部分,但我們仍然有金額 - 我們仍然欠他們在啟動該線路時填寫該線路。因此,您應該預期會因此增加約 100 萬桶。因此,從現在到今年年中,這種情況可能會發生。所以除此之外,我想說,你不應該期待任何其他物質。我認為,總的來說,第四季債務的軌跡非常強勁。
I think given the pricing environment we see today, both on the upstream and the downstream improving out of January into February, I think you're going to continue to see us make progress on the debt through this year.
我認為,考慮到我們今天看到的定價環境,從一月到二月上游和下游都在改善,我認為今年我們將繼續看到我們在債務方面取得進展。
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Dennis, I'd just add to that. I think we've been pretty clear with the value chains that we've built, whether it be condensate or the value chains that we've built to move our heavy oil out of Hardisty and into our refineries. You should expect us to be carrying somewhere around 45 million to 50 million barrels in inventory. And we're always going to be optimizing that through time. And with the refineries running more stably and predictably, there's an opportunity maybe to optimize that some more and take a few more barrels out of inventory.
丹尼斯,我想補充一點。我認為我們對我們所建立的價值鏈非常清楚,無論是凝析油還是我們為將重油從哈迪斯蒂轉移到煉油廠而建立的價值鏈。您應該預期我們的庫存約為 4500 萬至 5000 萬桶。隨著時間的推移,我們總是會對其進行優化。隨著煉油廠的運作更加穩定和可預測,也許有機會進一步優化並減少庫存。
The other thing that we do pretty consistently is we run that value chain for the optimum cash flow and where we have opportunities to store barrels and sell them in future periods at higher prices, we'll do that as well. But what you should count on us is kind of that 45 million to 50 million barrels, as Kam mentioned, there will be about 1 million barrels coming into that related to the start-up of TMX, but we're always going to be optimizing that depending on the pricing scenarios that we see going forward and the opportunities that this value chain gives us.
我們一貫做的另一件事是,我們運行該價值鏈以獲得最佳現金流,如果我們有機會儲存石油並在未來以更高的價格出售它們,我們也會這樣做。但你應該指望我們的是 4500 萬到 5000 萬桶,正如 Kam 提到的,大約有 100 萬桶與 TMX 的啟動相關,但我們總是會優化這取決於我們未來看到的定價方案以及該價值鏈帶給我們的機會。
Dennis Fong - Director of Product Strategy and Research
Dennis Fong - Director of Product Strategy and Research
Great. I really appreciate the additional color there, Jon, and I'll turn it back.
偉大的。我真的很欣賞那裡的額外顏色,喬恩,我會把它轉回來。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Menno Hulshof at TD Securities.
下一個問題來自道明證券的 Menno Hulshof。
Menno Hulshof - Research Analyst
Menno Hulshof - Research Analyst
I'm just going to start with a quick follow-up on Superior and Toledo. You did answer quite a bit of it already. But can you just guide us on what current utilization for the 2 refineries looks like today. And then Jon, you talked about potentially seeing a bigger ramp in Superior in Q2. Like what are the risks that you see in and successfully being able to rent Superior within that time frame?
我將首先對蘇必利爾和托萊多進行快速跟進。你已經回答了很多了。但您能否向我們介紹一下目前兩家煉油廠的使用率情況。然後喬恩,您談到第二季度蘇必利爾可能會出現更大的增長。您認為在該時間範圍內成功租用Superior有哪些風險?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Yes. I'm going to let Keith answer the first question last, and I'll start with your last question, and I'm sure Keith will have some thoughts there, too. There's no doubt Superior has been a bit of a fist bite for us in starting a refinery that hasn't run in 5 years and rebuilding it has been a bit of an issue. And any time you take a new set of kit in a refinery that hasn't run for that length of time through its first winter, you do find some deficiencies and sure enough, we found some deficiencies.
是的。我會讓基斯最後回答第一個問題,我將從你的最後一個問題開始,我相信基斯也會有一些想法。毫無疑問,蘇必利爾對我們來說是一個很大的打擊,因為我們創辦了一家已經 5 年沒有運營的煉油廠,而重建它卻是一個問題。每當您在煉油廠中使用一套新的套件,而該煉油廠在第一個冬天沒有運行那麼長的時間時,您確實會發現一些缺陷,當然,我們也發現了一些缺陷。
But there's nothing mechanically process or technically wrong with this refinery. It's just taken us a bit longer to get to where we wanted to get to. I'd also kind of point to the strategy of why we have these 2 refineries. And it's important to remember when we get Superior up to nameplate capacity in that 49,000 barrel a day range, it's going to consume about 35,000 barrels a day of heavy and we can get that from Hardisty to superior for about USD 4 with no take-or-pay commitment (inaudible) that is the strategic rationale for wanting that refinery.
但這家煉油廠在機械加工或技術上沒有任何問題。只是我們花了更長的時間才到達我們想去的地方。我還想指出我們為什麼擁有這兩家煉油廠的策略。重要的是要記住,當我們將 Superior 達到每天 49,000 桶的銘牌容量時,每天將消耗約 35,000 桶重質原油,我們可以以大約 4 美元的價格從 Hardisty 購買到 Superior,無需接受或購買-支付承諾(聽不清楚),這是想要該煉油廠的戰略理由。
It's not only going to make profits on its own, but it really does give us egress from Hardisty to Superior. Similarly on Toledo, of the 150,000 to 160,000 barrels a day of throughput capacity, about 90% to 95% of that is heavy oil and we can get our oil from Hardisty to Toledo for about USD 6 a barrel. So these are really important assets for us not just on a stand-alone basis, but on an integrated basis. So getting them up to full rates and demonstrating the full strategic value that we've seen for some time is really important to us.
它不僅可以自己盈利,而且確實為我們提供了從 Hardisty 到 Superior 的出口。同樣,在托萊多,每天 150,000 至 160,000 桶的吞吐量中,約 90% 至 95% 是重油,我們可以以每桶約 6 美元的價格從 Hardisty 運至托萊多。因此,這些對我們來說都是非常重要的資產,不僅是單獨的,而且是綜合的。因此,讓它們達到全速並展示我們一段時間以來看到的全部戰略價值對我們來說非常重要。
But maybe I'll turn it over to Keith, and he can talk to you more about the (inaudible) of the path forward with those.
但也許我會把它交給基思,他可以和你更多地談論這些的前進道路(聽不清楚)。
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
I think your question probably gears on the 76% utilization in the U.S. downstream in the fourth quarter. In that period of time, we had a pretty large turnaround at Borger Refinery and the operator had a little bit of challenge starting that refinery back up. It's now back up and running at full rates. Toledo ran well through there.
我認為你的問題可能與美國下游第四季 76% 的利用率有關。在那段時間裡,博格煉油廠發生了相當大的轉變,操作員在啟動煉油廠備份時遇到了一些挑戰。現在它已恢復並全速運行。托萊多跑得很順利。
But you will recall in December, we saw cracks diminish in PADD II in Chicago region, and we took the opportunity to optimize the kit and run it down. Heading into this quarter though, we are back up north of 90% utilization across the kit, including Toledo and Superior. Superior though, you should expect through the first several months of this year to run more in the 65% to 70% utilization. All of the kit is running.
但你可能還記得,去年 12 月,我們看到芝加哥地區 PADD II 的裂縫減少了,我們藉此機會優化了套件並進行了運行。不過,進入本季度,我們整個套件的利用率已恢復到 90% 以上,包括托萊多和蘇必利爾。不過,您應該預期今年前幾個月的利用率將達到 65% 至 70%。所有套件都在運行。
And to Jon's point about the heavy oil integration, we're able to run kind of that 30,000 barrels a day of heavy but we're just running off a bunch of intermediates that we built during start-up and shutdowns over the past 6 months that limits kind of getting the full utilization as we run those intermediates through the processes and fill out those process units. So the kits running, but you won't see that top line utilization number go up until the second quarter.
對於喬恩關於重油整合的觀點,我們每天能夠生產 30,000 桶重油,但我們只是消耗了過去 6 個月在啟動和停產期間生產的一堆中間體當我們在流程中運行這些中間體並填充這些流程單元時,這限制了充分利用。因此,套件正在運行,但直到第二季度您才會看到頂線利用率上升。
Menno Hulshof - Research Analyst
Menno Hulshof - Research Analyst
Terrific. Appreciate all of the detail. And I'll follow up with a question on solvent-assisted SAGD, we've seen quite a bit of news flow of late with Imperial being the first to bring a commercial SAGD project online a couple of months ago, and I believe CNQ was talking about commercial activity towards midyear. And I'm just going over past presentations. I believe it was that your last Investor Day, you talked about solvent-assisted pilot activity within the 5-year plan.
了不起。欣賞所有的細節。我將跟進一個關於溶劑輔助 SAGD 的問題,最近我們看到了相當多的新聞報道,幾個月前,Imperial 是第一個將商業 SAGD 項目上線的公司,我相信 CNQ 是談論年中的商業活動。我只是回顧過去的演講。我相信在您的最後一個投資者日,您談到了五年計劃中的溶劑輔助試點活動。
And you may want to hold back on this for the Investor Day, but if not, where does SAGD rank on the excitement scale right now? What's getting done in the background? And would you be willing to fine-tune the time line to commercial development?
您可能想在投資者日保留這一點,但如果不想,那麼 SAGD 目前在興奮度上排名第幾?後台正在做什麼?您願意調整商業開發的時間軸嗎?
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Menno, yes, it's Keith again. The way we look at SA-SAGD for Cenovus is we're pretty gifted with very thick clean reservoirs that allow for the actual recovery process to use SAGD and be very effective and very efficient. Over the years, probably dating back 15 years, we've piloted all kinds of solvent recovery technology.
門諾,是的,又是基斯。我們看待 Cenovus 的 SA-SAGD 的方式是,我們非常有天賦,擁有非常厚的清潔儲層,允許實際的採收過程使用 SAGD,並且非常有效和高效。多年來,大概可以追溯到 15 年前,我們已經試驗了各種溶劑回收技術。
So I would say those are, in our mind, commercialized, and they are waiting for the resource and opportunity to deploy them at. But right now, we have resource and capability to utilize our steam most effectively and most economically to drive the highest shareholder return. So that's kind of where we're focused. But we do have that technology in our back pocket should we see an opportunity to deploy it in the future.
所以我想說,在我們看來,這些已經商業化了,他們正在等待部署它們的資源和機會。但現在,我們有資源和能力最有效、最經濟地利用我們的動力來推動最高的股東回報。這就是我們關注的重點。但我們確實擁有這項技術,如果我們看到未來有機會部署它的話。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Next question comes from Greg Pardy at RBC Capital Markets.
(操作員說明)下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Greg Pardy。
Greg M. Pardy - MD & Co-Head Global Energy Research
Greg M. Pardy - MD & Co-Head Global Energy Research
So lots of emphasis on the downstream, which makes sense. Jon, the upstream has had good momentum. I'm just wondering if you can give us a little bit of an ops update there, including maybe where current production rates are roughly where production rates are right now?
所以非常重視下游,這是有道理的。喬恩,上游勢頭良好。我只是想知道您是否能為我們提供一些操作更新信息,包括當前的生產率大致相當於現在的生產率?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Sure. I'll get Keith to give you the detail on a property-by-property basis. But we entered this year, again, as I mentioned, with the kind of the second-highest production quarter that we've ever had. But December was probably the second highest production month that we've ever had as a company. All that needs to be tempered as you go into the summer months and we have a turnaround schedule that's all part of our guidance that we've given you.
當然。我會讓基斯向您提供逐個房產的詳細資訊。但正如我所提到的,今年我們再次迎來了有史以來第二高的產量季度。但 12 月可能是我們公司有史以來產量第二高的月份。當您進入夏季時,所有這些都需要調整,我們有一個週轉時間表,這是我們為您提供的指導的一部分。
And as I mentioned, we expect Q4 to be even bigger next year than it was this year, particularly as we kind of bring on more well pads right across the business, but I feel really good about how we've paced and staged the capital right across the upstream to ensure that those rates that we put into our guidance are very achievable. We've seen some really good rates at places like Lloydminster, where we had some daily production records in December and early January.
正如我所提到的,我們預計明年第四季的規模將比今年更大,特別是因為我們在整個業務中引入了更多的井場,但我對我們如何調整和部署資本感到非常滿意就在上游,以確保我們納入指導的那些利率是可以實現的。我們在勞埃德明斯特等地方看到了一些非常好的價格,我們在 12 月和 1 月初有一些每日生產記錄。
So it's kind of right across the business, and I think it really sets us up well for the growth projects and integration of those growth projects starting in 2025 with Narrows Lake tie-back. But Keith, maybe you want to run through the portfolio and talk about where we are on the individual assets.
因此,這在整個業務中都是正確的,我認為這確實為我們的成長項目以及從 2025 年開始與 Narrows Lake 回接開始的這些成長項目的整合奠定了良好的基礎。但是基思,也許您想瀏覽一下投資組合併討論我們在個別資產上的狀況。
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Yes, sure, Jon. Thanks for the question, Greg. It's actually been pretty impressive watching the ramp-up in the back half of 2023 and into 2024 with, as Jon indicated, kind of the second best quarter ever in Q4. That performance has persisted into January. And I would also like to commend the teams. We went through minus 45 degrees Celsius weather in January and the winterization programs we have across the asset base allowed us to weather through that without any hiccup.
是的,當然,喬恩。謝謝你的提問,格雷格。事實上,看到 2023 年下半年和 2024 年的成長令人印象深刻,正如 Jon 指出的那樣,第四季是有史以來第二好的季度。這種表現一直持續到一月份。我還要讚揚這些團隊。一月份我們經歷了零下 45 攝氏度的天氣,我們在整個資產基礎上實施的防凍計劃使我們能夠順利度過這一時期。
So really happy to see. We have put in some new well pads at Foster and Christina, and we're starting to see the success of those well pads with strong production starting into January and continuing -- that will continue through the quarter. As Jon indicated, the Lloyd thermals, we're actually above our expectation a little bit there as some of the redrills and redevelopments that we've done in the region as well as implementing some of our subsurface technologies has allowed us to increment up production in the Lloyd Thermal.
真的很高興看到。我們在福斯特和克里斯蒂娜建造了一些新的井場,我們開始看到這些井場的成功,從 1 月開始,產量強勁,並將持續到整個季度。正如喬恩所說,勞埃德熱氣流實際上超出了我們的預期,因為我們在該地區進行的一些重新鑽探和重建以及實施一些地下技術使我們能夠增加產量在勞埃德熱電廠。
So pretty happy with the combination of the Lloyd Thermals and the conventional heavy oil. You may recall that on the East Coast, we do have the life extension happening on our SeaRose. So the boat has come off station and it's in the dry dock going through that life extension project. And that will persist out to the back end of Q3. Happy to note though that Terra Nova came back on station in the middle of last year and started production in November, and we're starting to see production from Terra Nova ramp up.
對勞埃德熱能和傳統重油的結合非常滿意。您可能還記得,在東海岸,我們的 SeaRose 確實實現了壽命延長。現在這艘船已經離開車站,在幹船塢裡進行壽命延長工程。這種情況將持續到第三季末。值得高興的是,Terra Nova 於去年年中回歸並於 11 月開始生產,我們開始看到 Terra Nova 的產量增加。
And then our Asia business has been very strong for us as well, and that has continued into the new year. And then when I look back at conventional, it's been performing well. And similarly to our oil sands assets, weathered through the real cold snap as well. So all in all, across the portfolio in the upstream, really happy with the performance in Q4 and that's continuing early into Q1 of 2024.
我們的亞洲業務也非常強勁,這種情況一直持續到新的一年。然後當我回顧傳統的時候,它表現得很好。與我們的油砂資產類似,也經歷了真正的寒流。總而言之,整個上游投資組合對第四季度的表現非常滿意,這種情況將持續到 2024 年第一季初期。
Greg M. Pardy - MD & Co-Head Global Energy Research
Greg M. Pardy - MD & Co-Head Global Energy Research
Okay. Terrific. And completely, maybe then shifting over the financials because in your opening remarks, I mean, you pretty much answered the question, which is, i.e., hitting that allusive $4 billion net debt target. I'm curious, maybe it's a question for Kam, just is there any more -- maybe a bit more precision around that. Is that possible to get there by midyear or would that be jinxing it? And then kind of related to that, is the upstream portfolio sufficiently streamlined?
好的。了不起。完全地,也許然後轉移財務狀況,因為在你的開場白中,我的意思是,你幾乎回答了這個問題,即達到暗示的 40 億美元淨債務目標。我很好奇,也許這是 Kam 的問題,只是還有更多的問題嗎——也許更精確一些。有可能在年中之前到達那裡嗎?或者這會帶來厄運嗎?與此相關的是,上游投資組合是否夠精簡?
Or are there still aspects of the portfolio that could be, i.e., non-core asset sales and so on? Or are we pretty much done?
或者投資組合中仍有可能存在的方面,即非核心資產出售等?或者我們已經完成了嗎?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
I'm going to answer the last question for Kam. We're very happy with the portfolio, Greg. This is probably the first quarter that we've had full access to all our assets. And I'd tell you, they're all investable. They all fit within our strategy, and they are all things that are part of our plan going forward. So we're very happy with the portfolio that we have today.
我要回答卡姆的最後一個問題。格雷格,我們對這個產品組合非常滿意。這可能是我們能夠完全存取所有資產的第一個季度。我告訴你,它們都是可投資的。它們都符合我們的策略,並且都是我們未來計劃的一部分。所以我們對今天的產品組合非常滿意。
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Greg, it's Kam. So I think you're looking for a hard date on the debt target, to be honest.
格雷格,我是卡姆。所以說實話,我認為你正在尋找一個關於債務目標的硬性日期。
Greg M. Pardy - MD & Co-Head Global Energy Research
Greg M. Pardy - MD & Co-Head Global Energy Research
(inaudible) will be fine.
(聽不清楚)會沒事的。
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
It would be hard to give that. So a couple of things I would highlight. Look, we're continuing to see a lot of volatility in commodity prices. So obviously, even with differentials widening out in Q4 and then now starting to see a bit of a narrowing into the first quarter and going into the back half of the year. And then obviously, cracks have improved. So I would say the pricing environment we're in is quite constructive.
很難做到這一點。我想強調幾件事。看,我們繼續看到大宗商品價格大幅波動。很明顯,即使差異在第四季度擴大,然後現在開始看到第一季和下半年的縮小。顯然,裂縫有所改善。所以我想說我們所處的定價環境非常有建設性。
I think we're really focused on the things that are in our control. And as you heard Keith and Jon talk about, operationally, I think things are going really well. So I think the goal is to get there as quickly as we can. I think -- it's the #1 priority for us as an organization. So I think when you look at the actions we're taking around the business, whether it's controlling our cost to working capital and then obviously running the assets, I think the goal is to try to get there in a reasonable time frame.
我認為我們真正專注於我們控制範圍內的事情。正如您聽到基斯和喬恩談論的那樣,在營運方面,我認為事情進展得非常順利。所以我認為我們的目標是盡快實現這一目標。我認為──這是我們作為一個組織的第一要務。因此,我認為,當你看看我們圍繞業務採取的行動時,無論是控制我們的營運資本成本,然後顯然是營運資產,我認為目標是努力在合理的時間範圍內實現這一目標。
So the focus of the whole organization is to get to that debt target. I would say in this price environment, I'm optimistic we can get there in a reasonable time frame. Whether that's in Q2 or Q4, it's really going to depend on commodity prices.
因此,整個組織的重點是實現該債務目標。我想說,在這種價格環境下,我對我們能夠在合理的時間內實現這一目標感到樂觀。無論是第二季度還是第四季度,這實際上取決於大宗商品價格。
Greg M. Pardy - MD & Co-Head Global Energy Research
Greg M. Pardy - MD & Co-Head Global Energy Research
No, I think it's a good answer.
不,我認為這是一個很好的答案。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from John Royall from JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾。
John Macalister Royall - Analyst
John Macalister Royall - Analyst
I had another one on downstream. I was just hoping for some details on -- I think you had mentioned in the release and some unplanned downtime at Lima and how impactful that was the 4Q results? And then you also mentioned in the release what sounded like maybe some economic downtime you took in downstream. Could you just give a little detail around that? And did that continue into the early part of 1Q before cracks improved?
我在下游還有另一個。我只是希望了解一些細節——我想您在新聞稿中提到了利馬的一些計劃外停機,以及第四季度結果的影響有多大?然後您還在新聞稿中提到了您在下游可能經歷的一些經濟停頓。能否提供一些細節?在裂縫改善之前,這種情況是否持續到第一季初期?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Yes. I'll speak to Lima and then Keith can answer your question more broadly. But the only unplanned downtime that we had in Lima was a short outage that we had on the isocracker. And as you Jon, the isocracker is your biggest diesel-making unit. And when diesel is really your only product that's making money in the crack environment that we saw in late November, early December or all through December really, it does impact your financial results. But that all being said, that was dealt with quickly and the Lima refinery today is at full rate and it is operating very, very well. So Keith, maybe you can just touch on any other aspects you wanted to mention?
是的。我將與利馬交談,然後基斯可以更廣泛地回答您的問題。但我們在利馬遇到的唯一一次計劃外停機是等裂解裝置的短暫暫停機。作為你的喬恩,等裂化裝置是你最大的柴油製造裝置。當柴油確實是您唯一在 11 月底、12 月初或整個 12 月的糟糕環境中賺錢的產品時,它確實會影響您的財務表現。但話雖如此,這個問題很快就得到了處理,利馬煉油廠今天已滿負荷運轉,運作得非常非常好。 Keith,也許您可以談談您想提及的任何其他方面?
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Yes. Thanks for the question, John. So you will recall, cracks really collapsed in the December time period. So we did reduce rate on kind of our lighter oil refinery, which is Lima. A little bit into December as well as some of our non-operated refineries took some economic run cuts. That did persist in the January, but you also probably are well aware on February 1, we saw cracks really improve, and we quickly ramped up all of our assets to get the full rates to capture money in that market.
是的。謝謝你的提問,約翰。所以你會記得,裂縫確實是在12月期間崩塌的。因此,我們確實降低了我們位於利馬的輕質煉油廠的利率。進入 12 月後不久,我們的一些非營運煉油廠進行了一些經濟運作削減。這種情況在1 月份確實持續存在,但您可能在2 月1 日也很清楚,我們看到裂縫確實有所改善,我們迅速增加了所有資產,以獲得在該市場上捕獲資金的全額利率。
I think it was about a $15 to $20 move on the crack, which incented us to go to full rates, where we continue to operate and looking forward, we're anticipating -- we're starting to get in the driving season. And I believe there's some forecasted outages in the pad as well that should help sustain those cracks for the foreseeable future.
我認為裂縫上的價格約為 15 至 20 美元,這促使我們採取全價,我們繼續運營並展望未來,我們預計 - 我們將開始進入駕駛季節。我相信,預計發射台也會出現一些停電,這應該有助於在可預見的未來維持這些裂縫。
John Macalister Royall - Analyst
John Macalister Royall - Analyst
Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then just sticking with the downstream is when I look at this year's guidance, is the 30 to 35 kbd of maintenance, is that kind of a good level to think about going forward? Or is there some extra maintenance in there, given you had some restarts last year? Just trying to think about sort of how to model kind of the earnings now we're in refining and just the maintenance impacts there.
好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後,當我查看今年的指導時,堅持下游是 30 到 35 kbd 的維護,這是一個值得考慮的好水平嗎?或者考慮到去年您進行了一些重新啟動,其中是否有一些額外的維護?只是想考慮如何對我們正在完善的收益以及維護影響進行建模。
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Keith A. Chiasson - Executive VP & COO
Yes. They're sometimes a little bit lumpy with major turnarounds. But I think in general, John, that's a pretty good number to model, but you can probably follow up with our IR folks off the call, and they can give a little bit more detail.
是的。有時,他們會因為重大轉變而變得有點不穩定。但我認為,約翰,總的來說,這是一個非常適合建模的數字,但您可以透過電話聯繫我們的 IR 人員,他們可以提供更多細節。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Neil Mehta at Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。
Nicolette Slusser - Analyst
Nicolette Slusser - Analyst
This is Nicolette Slusser. Lots of earnings calls going on today. But on for Neil. I guess the first question will be on downstream. I know there's been a lot, but ours is a bit longer term in nature, which is assuming we get kind of all the assets up and running, and maybe it's 2024 and beyond. Is there any sort of initiatives we should be on the lookout for either on the cost side that you see as low-hanging fruit in the downstream in U.S. in particular or on the capture rate side that you see could be improved upon over time?
這是尼可萊特·斯拉瑟。今天有很多財報電話會議。但尼爾。我想第一個問題將在下游。我知道有很多,但我們的期限本質上有點長,假設我們所有的資產都已啟動並運行,也許是 2024 年及以後。是否有任何類型的舉措是我們應該關注的,無論是在成本方面(您認為在美國下游是容易實現的目標),還是在捕獲率方面(您認為隨著時間的推移可以得到改善)?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Yes. There's nothing that we have that we need to address that relates to vessel retirement that relates to regulatory obligation of any kind of consequence. Our focus today is continuing to run these assets well, integrate them with the upstream and drive the value from this integrated value chain that we've put together. So don't think going forward that there's big lumps of capital that are coming in direction to address those kind of big 2 issues that I talked about. Where we do have some capital that we've allocated to the downstream is more for projects that are economic in nature and allow us to expand margins and increase our heavy oil capacity throughput, but they're relatively modest.
是的。我們沒有任何需要解決的與船舶退役相關的問題,也沒有與任何後果的監管義務相關的問題。我們今天的重點是繼續良好地運作這些資產,將它們與上游整合,並從我們整合的這個整合價值鏈中驅動價值。因此,不要認為未來會有大量資金用於解決我談到的這兩大問題。我們確實有一些資本分配給下游,更多的是用於經濟性質的項目,使我們能夠擴大利潤並增加重油產能吞吐量,但它們相對溫和。
So what you can expect from us as a company over the next couple of years is we're going to continue on the investments that we have in the upstream, and we've talked about those at Superior Foster Creek, Christina Lake and our West White Rose project with modest capital investment in the downstream to capture some incremental margin but really looking to run our refineries well and integrate them with our upstream on a more sustained basis.
因此,在接下來的幾年裡,您對我們公司的期望是,我們將繼續在上游進行投資,我們已經討論了在蘇必利爾福斯特溪、克里斯蒂娜湖和我們的西部的投資。白玫瑰該項目在下游進行了適度的資本投資,以獲取一些增量利潤,但真正希望良好地運營我們的煉油廠,並在更持續的基礎上將它們與我們的上游整合。
Nicolette Slusser - Analyst
Nicolette Slusser - Analyst
All right. Very helpful. And then not to get ahead of ourselves, but just curious -- are there any themes we should be on the lookout for? I know it's going to be a longer-term view at the upcoming March Investor Day. But any updates we should be looking out for, whether it's on pathways, low carbon, I know you're going to talk a lot about these upstream projects that you've been investing in, but also if there's anything on the capital return side of things we should be looking out for, but any early thoughts would be very helpful.
好的。很有幫助。然後,不要超前,只是好奇──有什麼我們應該關注的主題嗎?我知道這將是即將到來的三月投資者日的長期觀點。但是我們應該關注的任何更新,無論是在路徑、低碳方面,我知道你會談論很多你一直在投資的上游項目,但也會談論資本回報方面的任何事情我們應該注意的事情,但任何早期的想法都會非常有幫助。
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Well, one of the things, I think, is we've been pretty consistent on what our strategy is since Alex and I arrived here in 2018, so please don't believe that Investor Day is going to mark any kind of a left-hand turn from what's been really important to this company for the last 5, 6 years, which is steady operations, driving to an underlevered balance sheet, getting to 100% shareholder returns and investing profitably in this business at the margin.
嗯,我認為其中一件事是,自從 Alex 和我 2018 年來到這裡以來,我們的策略一直非常一致,所以請不要相信投資者日將標誌著任何形式的左派——過去5、6 年裡,對這家公司真正重要的是穩定營運、推動資產負債表槓桿化、實現100% 的股東回報以及以邊際利潤投資該業務,從而實現盈利。
So what we're really going to do at Investor Day is reinforce the strategy and the trajectory that we've been on, but give you a lot more detail as to what the next 5 years is going to look like.
因此,我們在投資者日真正要做的是強化我們一直以來的策略和軌跡,但會向您提供更多有關未來 5 年的詳細資訊。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Jason Bouvier at Scotiabank.
下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Jason Bouvier。
Jason Derik Bouvier - Analyst
Jason Derik Bouvier - Analyst
Quick question on the preferreds. My understanding is they become redeemable later this year and in the first half of next year, assuming you guys hit your net debt target in the back half this year. Are those next on the plate? Or would you look for your shareholder returns to come through like share buybacks or dividends?
關於首選的快速問題。我的理解是,假設你們在今年下半年達到了淨債務目標,它們將在今年稍後和明年上半年被贖回。盤子裡的下一個是那些嗎?或者您會尋求透過股票回購或股利等方式實現股東回報嗎?
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Jason, it's Kam. So you're right, we do have some of our pressures coming due ones at the end of this year and some in 2025. So we'll look at all of those things as we do, whether it's our debt portfolio, our buyback program and the pref. So I think we're evaluating always what the right economical decision is for the company and what the capital structure looks like. So we'll -- no different than any of those other decisions, we'll look at those as they come to maturity.
傑森,我是卡姆。所以你是對的,我們確實有一些壓力將在今年年底到期,還有一些將在2025 年到期。因此,我們將像我們所做的那樣審視所有這些事情,無論是我們的債務投資組合還是我們的回購計畫和縣長。所以我認為我們總是在評估對公司正確的經濟決策是什麼以及資本結構是什麼樣的。因此,我們將與任何其他決定沒有什麼不同,我們將在它們成熟時對其進行研究。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Next question comes from Manav Gupta at UBS.
(操作員說明)下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Manav Gupta。
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Manav Gupta - Analyst
I have a quick macro question first. Every now and then, we hear that TMX has cleared the last hurdle and the line is already set to come on and then there is another hurdle -- like is there any update you guys have, you're much closer to it? When do you think line hits the mechanical completion linefill? And when do (inaudible) start actually coming in?
我首先有一個簡短的宏觀問題。時不時地,我們聽說 TMX 已經清除了最後一個障礙,並且生產線已經準備好上線,然後還有另一個障礙 - 就像你們有任何更新嗎?你們離它更近了嗎?您認為線路什麼時候會達到機械完成線路填充? (聽不清楚)什麼時候開始真正進來?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
And what you hear is what we hear as well. So we've heard all of the starts and stops and starts again. But (inaudible) you answer where we are on TMX and our latest thinking there?
您所聽到的也是我們所聽到的。所以我們聽到了所有的開始、停止和重新開始。但是(聽不清楚)您可以回答我們在 TMX 上的處境以及我們的最新想法嗎?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Sure. Yes. Thanks, Manav. To Jon's point, it's sometimes daily and weekly here. I think we're getting so close to being at the point where we can utilize a very important piece of infrastructure for the Western Canadian basin. So we're all very, very excited to see that come on. Maybe just to back up, when we looked at our 2024 budget and when we planned when we would see this and what we would take into account, we always kind of anticipated mid-year -- and so I still think that's very reasonable.
當然。是的。謝謝,馬納夫。對喬恩來說,這裡有時是每天、每週。我認為我們已經非常接近可以利用加拿大西部盆地的一個非常重要的基礎設施了。所以我們都非常非常興奮地看到它的發生。也許只是為了支持,當我們查看 2024 年預算時,當我們計劃何時看到這一點以及我們將考慮什麼時,我們總是在年中進行預期 - 所以我仍然認為這是非常合理的。
And I think we talked about this on the last call, even when it does come on and we get it full and it starts to operate, it's going to be a little bumpy probably out of the gate. So we've taken a lot of that into account in our guidance when we've looked at it. But we still see and believe that it will come on here sometime in mid- to late Q2. We expect the linefill call for the remaining volumes to come here in the next number of weeks and early Q2.
我想我們在上次電話會議上討論過這個問題,即使它真的啟動了,我們把它裝滿並開始運行,它可能會有點坎坷。因此,當我們研究它時,我們在指南中考慮了很多這一點。但我們仍然看到並相信它會在第二季度中後期的某個時候出現。我們預計剩餘數量的補貨需求將在接下來的幾週內和第二季初到達。
And -- but again, we also expect it to be a little bumpy as it kind of comes off start-up. So we're still planning for midyear, and we're looking forward to it like everyone else.
而且——但同樣,我們也預計它會有點坎坷,因為它在啟動時會有點坎坷。所以我們仍在為年中做計劃,我們和其他人一樣期待著它。
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Perfect. A quick follow-up here is you're pursuing growth at Foster, you're pursuing growth at Christina and some other projects you talked about, when we look at -- it's like '26 and '27, what would be a good way of thinking about the oil sands production level -- just trying to understand, ballpark, how should we model '26 and '27 for the oil sands volumes?
完美的。這裡的一個快速跟進是,您正在追求福斯特的增長,您正在追求克里斯蒂娜的增長以及您談到的其他一些項目,當我們看到時- 就像'26和'27,這將是一個好方法思考油砂生產水平 - 只是想了解,大概,我們應該如何為油砂量建模“26”和“27”?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Sure. So the way you should think about our growth projects is we've been investing since 2023 in our growth projects. And that investment cycle kind of ends in 2025. So the money that we're spending last year, this year and next year really facilitates the growth that you're going to see in 2025 and beyond. As I mentioned in my call notes, the first project to come on will be the Christina Lake, Narrows tie-back and that will add kind of 20,000 to 30,000 barrels a day starting in '25, but more maturing in 2026.
當然。因此,您應該考慮我們的成長項目,因為我們自 2023 年以來一直在投資我們的成長項目。這個投資週期將於 2025 年結束。因此,我們去年、今年和明年花費的資金確實促進了 2025 年及以後的成長。正如我在電話通知中提到的,第一個啟動的項目將是 Christina Lake、Narrows 回接項目,從 25 年開始每天產量將增加 20,000 至 30,000 桶,但到 2026 年將更加成熟。
You'll see the Foster expansion come on in the 2026 time frame with full rates in 2027. You should see a continued growth in Sunrise production as we continue to bring on 4 well packages over the next 2, 3 years. And we believe again, that we can take that asset beyond the nameplate capacity of 65,000 barrels a day. Today, we're kind of in the 45% to 50% range. So in those kind of time frames, that's where you'll see the growth in our oil sands production.
您將看到 Foster 擴建將在 2026 年時間範圍內進行,並於 2027 年實現滿載。您應該會看到 Sunrise 產量持續增長,因為我們將在未來 2、3 年繼續推出 4 口井包。我們再次相信,我們可以使該資產超出每天 65,000 桶的銘牌產能。今天,我們的比例大約在 45% 到 50% 之間。因此,在這樣的時間範圍內,您將看到我們的油砂產量的成長。
And it's really facilitated by having extra and incremental egress that we get from our refineries as well as TMX and having that underlevered balance sheet that we've been coveting for so long. The other project, Manav, I think you're aware of this, is our West White Rose project, and we expect to see first oil there in 2026.
我們從煉油廠和 TMX 獲得的額外和增量出口以及我們一直覬覦已久的槓桿不足的資產負債表確實促進了這一點。另一個項目 Manav,我想您也知道這一點,是我們的 West White Rose 項目,我們預計將於 2026 年在那裡看到第一批石油。
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Manav Gupta - Analyst
And look forward to meeting you in person in about 3 weeks.
期待大約 3 週後與您見面。
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
We look forward to it as well. Take care.
我們也很期待。小心。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Lloyd Byrne at Jefferies.
(操作員說明)下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Lloyd Byrne。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
I have a bit of a philosophical question and maybe you want to address it on the Analyst Day coming up. But market has kind of gotten stuck on the $4 billion number at $45 oil -- and the -- your debt is already below a lot of your peers, depending on how you want to look at it. But -- and then the second is your cost of equity is really high relative versus, obviously, your cost of debt. And so given the fact you have a lot of projects coming on Sunrise, Narrows, Foster Creek, West White Rose, it looks like your EBITDA is going to be (inaudible) billion dollars out in '26 to $45 anyway. So I guess my question is, would you ever consider accelerating the buyback at this point?
我有一個哲學問題,也許你想在即將到來的分析師日解決它。但市場已經陷入了油價 45 美元、40 億美元的困境——而且——你的債務已經低於很多同行,這取決於你如何看待它。但是,第二個問題是,與債務成本相比,股本成本確實很高。因此,考慮到 Sunrise、Narrows、Foster Creek、West White Rose 等地有很多項目正在進行,看起來您的 EBITDA 將在 26 至 45 美元之間達到(聽不清楚)十億美元。所以我想我的問題是,你現在會考慮加速回購嗎?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Yes. I'll take a crack at this, and then I'm going to turn it over to Kam. But I would -- I think we've been really clear on what our financial framework was and is and how we think about capital structure, capital allocation, shareholder returns and the like. And we are absolutely of the view that companies like us that produce heavy oil in the Mid-Continent need to run underlevered balance sheets. And we need to have a balance sheet that's sustainable at the bottom of the cycle, which we define as $45. We believe that's the price where growth in hydrocarbons stop.
是的。我會嘗試一下,然後將其交給 Kam。但我想——我認為我們已經非常清楚我們的財務框架過去和現在是什麼,以及我們如何看待資本結構、資本配置、股東回報等。我們絕對認為,像我們這樣在中大陸生產重油的公司需要保持資產負債表槓桿不足。我們需要有一個在周期底部可持續的資產負債表,我們將其定義為 45 美元。我們相信這是碳氫化合物成長停止的價格。
So for us, achieving that $4 billion is kind of job one, and getting to 100% shareholder returns beyond that is something that we're absolutely looking forward to and something that we've been covering for a long period of time. As we go forward through time, we're always evaluating the right level of debt for the company to have. We believe that 1x EBITDA at $45 is that right level of debt. But don't look for us to stray from our financial framework and try and be overly opportunistic by buying back stock in today's market at the expense of getting the balance sheet to that level of net debt.
因此,對我們來說,實現 40 億美元是我們的首要任務,除此之外,獲得 100% 的股東回報是我們絕對期待的事情,也是我們長期以來一直在關注的事情。隨著時間的推移,我們始終在評估公司的適當債務水準。我們認為 45 美元的 1 倍 EBITDA 是合適的債務水準。但不要指望我們偏離我們的財務框架,並試圖以犧牲資產負債表達到淨債務水平為代價,在當今市場上回購股票,從而表現出過度的機會主義。
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Kam S. Sandhar - Executive VP of Strategy & CFO
Yes. And Lloyd, it's Kam. I would just add a couple of things. I think number one is, look, this debt target is not a short-term target. This is something we wanted to strive for to get to for a period of time. We've been on this deleveraging journey now for the better part of 5 years, I would say, even going back to 2018 and I think the goal is let's have -- we want a capital structure that allows us to have a resilient balance sheet and gives us optionality to be opportunistic in times when others may not be able to.
是的。勞埃德,是卡姆。我只想補充幾件事。我認為第一是,看,這個債務目標不是一個短期目標。這是我們在一段時間內想要努力實現的目標。我想說,我們的去槓桿化之旅已經持續了5 年的大部分時間,甚至可以追溯到2018 年,我認為我們的目標是——我們想要一個能夠讓我們擁有有彈性的資產負債表的資本結構並讓我們在其他人可能無法做到的時候有選擇機會主義的機會。
And I think I would also highlight, we are in a period of time right now where our capital is a little bit elevated just given that we are -- got some big projects and commitments that we have ongoing, whether it's West White Rose or the oil sands growth. So I think that debt target is really important to us. We're not going to deviate from it. And to Jon's point, we'll reassess it as the growth kind of comes through the business as we get into 2025 and 2026.
我想我還要強調,我們現在正處於一個時期,我們的資本略有增加,因為我們正在進行一些大型項目和承諾,無論是西白玫瑰還是油砂增長。所以我認為債務目標對我們來說非常重要。我們不會偏離它。對於喬恩的觀點,我們將重新評估它,因為隨著我們進入 2025 年和 2026 年,業務將實現成長。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great. Makes sense. And your sustainable EBITDA is going up though, too. So I have one more question. How about exports out of PADD II going forward? I mean last time, I think I saw you guys we were talking about potentially looking into different options going forward. Do you think there's an opportunity to get more product out -- so this doesn't happen, the kind of margins you saw this year don't happen again in the future?
偉大的。說得通。不過,您的永續 EBITDA 也在上升。所以我還有一個問題。 PADD II 的出口情況如何?我的意思是上次,我想我看到你們正在討論可能正在研究未來的不同選擇。您是否認為有機會生產更多產品——所以這種情況不會發生,今年您看到的那種利潤將來不會再出現?
Joseph Drew Zieglgansberger - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer
Joseph Drew Zieglgansberger - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer
Lloyd, it's Drew. Yes, you are correct that, that is going to -- PADD I is a nice market. And we've got about 20,000 barrels a day of takeaway capacity there to get into the premium market. We're also using some storage and sell our products in later months right now, if we just think about summer versus winter gas spreads, and we are doing that right now because of (inaudible) that's there. It is on our radar. There are some things we are looking at to be able to access our refined products into better markets that are a little more structured and probably have a little bit more global consistency to being a little more stable.
勞埃德,是德魯。是的,你是對的,PADD I 是一個很好的市場。我們每天有大約 20,000 桶的外帶能力,可以進入高端市場。如果我們只考慮夏季與冬季的天然氣價差,我們現在也會使用一些儲存並在接下來的幾個月中銷售我們的產品,而我們現在正在這樣做,因為(聽不清楚)就在那裡。它在我們的雷達上。我們正在考慮採取一些措施,以便能夠將我們的精煉產品打入更好的市場,這些市場的結構更加結構化,並且可能具有更多的全球一致性,從而更加穩定。
We're seeing that volatility in PADD II right now, and we've talked about it today, and we're seeing it in our results. So it is part of some of our strategy and our thinking and it's something that we're working on.
我們現在看到了 PADD II 的波動性,我們今天已經討論過它,並且我們在我們的結果中看到了它。所以這是我們一些策略和想法的一部分,也是我們正在努力的事情。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Chris Varcoe at Calgary Herald.
下一個問題來自《卡加利先驅報》的克里斯·瓦爾科。
Chris Varcoe - Senior Editor of Politics
Chris Varcoe - Senior Editor of Politics
In November, the Alberta government announced its carbon capture incentive program, which I believe is a 12% grant for CCUS projects. And that obviously comes out of Ottawa, announced its investment tax credit for CCUS projects. Now that those pieces are in place, what does Cenovus need to see in order to progress the CCUS foundational project? Or maybe looking at it another way, what is still lacking?
11月,阿爾伯塔省政府宣布了碳捕集激勵計劃,我認為該計劃將為CCUS項目提供12%的補助。這顯然來自渥太華,宣布了 CCUS 項目的投資稅收抵免。現在這些部分已經就位,為了推進 CCUS 基礎項目,Cenovus 需要看到什麼?或者換個角度看,還欠缺什麼?
Rhona M. Delfrari - Chief Sustainability Officer & Executive VP of Stakeholder Engagement
Rhona M. Delfrari - Chief Sustainability Officer & Executive VP of Stakeholder Engagement
Chris, it's Rhona. So we're still -- I mean, there's still a lot of details that have to be ironed out with both the investment tax credit federally and (inaudible) the province. These are really good steps towards what needs to happen for decarbonization to progress. But I mean the ITC was announced a long time ago, and it's still not finalized, things like the carbon credits for difference that have been announced by the federal government a long time ago.
克里斯,這是羅娜。所以我們仍然——我的意思是,聯邦和(聽不清楚)省的投資稅收抵免仍然有很多細節需要解決。這些都是實現脫碳進程所需採取的非常好的步驟。但我的意思是,ITC 很早之前就宣布了,而且還沒有最終確定,例如聯邦政府很早之前就宣布了碳信用差額。
We still don't have any details there. And so all along, we've been saying that we continue to work with both governments, and those discussions are ongoing and have been for a long time. But this is a really -- this is very complex and it cannot just be figured out overnight. And so it just takes a little bit longer than I think a lot of people would like it to. But I think you have to look at that as being somewhat a positive thing that this needs to be right because these are multibillion-dollar decarbonization projects for our sector, but for other sectors as well.
我們仍然沒有任何細節。因此,一直以來,我們一直在說,我們將繼續與兩國政府合作,這些討論正在進行中,而且已經持續了很長時間。但這確實非常複雜,不可能一夕之間就能弄清楚。因此,這比我認為很多人希望的時間要長一點。但我認為你必須將其視為一件積極的事情,這需要是正確的,因為這些是我們行業以及其他行業的數十億美元的脫碳項目。
And they take a lot of thoughtful discussion in order for them to progress. The thing that's really positive is that the industry and the Alberta government and the federal government all have a shared goal of decarbonizing because it's -- good for the province. It's good for Canada. It's good for our sector. And we -- but we need to make sure that we have the right fiscal support in place because around the world, these decarbonization projects do not go ahead without significant investment from governments. And so that's what we continue to have discussions with.
他們需要進行大量深思熟慮的討論才能取得進步。真正積極的事情是,該行業、阿爾伯塔省政府和聯邦政府都有一個共同的脫碳目標,因為這對該省有利。這對加拿大來說是好事。這對我們的行業有好處。但我們需要確保我們有適當的財政支持,因為在世界各地,如果沒有政府的大量投資,這些脫碳計畫就無法進行。這就是我們繼續討論的問題。
In the meantime, with the Pathways CCUS project, there's a ton of work that's been ongoing. And we're getting ready over the next few months here to submit the regulatory application for the pipeline and for the port space. So that's really, really positive. Lots of engineering work has gone into that, loss of consultation with communities and we're continuing to work on a whole bunch of other projects.
同時,Pathways CCUS 計畫正在進行大量工作。我們正在準備在接下來的幾個月內提交管道和港口空間的監管申請。所以這真的非常非常積極。大量的工程工作已經投入其中,失去了與社區的協商,我們正在繼續進行大量其他項目。
So feasibility studies for the capture as it's been announced, Cenovus is working on a feasibility study for small modular reactors. Their solvents work going ahead. There's -- other companies are looking at fuel switching. So tons of work is going forward, and we're still working with governments on the details of what the funding support will be.
正如所宣布的那樣,捕獲的可行性研究,Cenovus 正在進行小型模組化反應器的可行性研究。他們的溶劑可以繼續發揮作用。其他公司正在考慮燃料轉換。因此,大量的工作正在進行中,我們仍在與各國政府就資金支持的細節進行合作。
Chris Varcoe - Senior Editor of Politics
Chris Varcoe - Senior Editor of Politics
And just a follow-up in December, the federal government announced its framework for the emissions cap for the industry, which looks at -- I believe it's a 35% to 38% reduction by 2030. Do you think this is a doable target? And I'm wondering just separately, does the emission cap impact the desire of pathways to invest in CCUS, do you think?
12 月的後續行動是,聯邦政府宣布了該行業的排放上限框架,該框架著眼於——我相信到 2030 年減排 35% 至 38%。您認為這是一個可行的目標嗎?我想單獨想知道,排放上限是否會影響投資 CCUS 途徑的願望,您認為嗎?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Yes. One of the things we've seen, Chris, is a real increase in complexity and density and velocity of proposed regulation coming out of Ottawa. And our view on all of this is it's largely unnecessary and that the right incentives already exist, assuming that we can get a framework together for financial support that incentivizes investment in this basin, not just for decarbonization, but for the business as a whole.
是的。克里斯,我們看到的一件事是渥太華提出的監管提案的複雜性、密度和速度確實增加了。我們對這一切的看法是,這在很大程度上是不必要的,並且正確的激勵措施已經存在,假設我們可以建立一個財政支持框架,激勵對該流域的投資,不僅是為了脫碳,而且是為了整個企業。
So our view on these things is that they are necessarily complex and they cloud the issue of trying to get to a place where we have some certainty as to what the financial incentive framework is going to look like that allows us to invest not just in the business, but in the decarbonization of this business as well.
因此,我們對這些事情的看法是,它們必然很複雜,並且它們使我們對財務激勵框架的外觀有一定確定性的問題變得模糊,使我們不僅可以投資於業務,但也包括該業務的脫碳。
Operator
Operator
The last question comes from Robert Tuttle at Bloomberg News.
最後一個問題來自彭博新聞社的羅伯特‧塔特爾。
Robert Tuttle
Robert Tuttle
Just following up on that. You guys have your own target for 2030 on emissions cuts. My understanding is you need to start -- you need to start ordering the pipes or the pipelines, various components like right now, are you going to reach your own target? Do you think -- or is that threatened?
只是跟進此事。你們有自己的 2030 年減排目標。我的理解是你需要開始——你需要開始訂購管道或管道、各種組件,就像現在一樣,你會達到你自己的目標嗎?你認為——或者這受到威脅了嗎?
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
So our internal target, Robert, is a 2035 target. I think what you're referring to is the 2030 target that was put out by the federal government as well as the Pathways group, there's no doubt that to reach the 2030 targets of what's doable. We need to move on that today. But we can't move on those targets until we get the certainty from the levels of government that we're currently negotiating with that allow for certainty and investment in these kind of projects.
因此,羅伯特,我們的內在目標是 2035 年的目標。我想你指的是聯邦政府和Pathways小組提出的2030年目標,毫無疑問要達到2030年的目標是可行的。今天我們需要繼續努力。但是,除非我們從目前正在與之談判的政府層級獲得確定性,從而允許對此類項目進行確定性和投資,否則我們無法實現這些目標。
As Rhona mentioned, these are multibillion-dollar projects, multiyear projects, and they can't happen if they leave the industry uncompetitive with the peer group. So once that certainty is established and we're working with the federal and provincial governments right now to try and get there, we'll move forward. But there's no doubt to kind of achieve the 2030 targets that have been floated. This needs to happen sooner rather than later.
正如羅娜所提到的,這些都是數十億美元的項目,是多年的項目,如果它們使行業與同行相比失去競爭力,它們就不可能實現。因此,一旦確定了這種確定性,並且我們現在正在與聯邦和省政府合作,努力實現這一目標,我們就會繼續前進。但毫無疑問,要實現已經提出的 2030 年目標。這需要宜早不宜遲。
Robert Tuttle
Robert Tuttle
Have you been given a time line or anything by the government? And when they'll be able to give you certainty on like the credits for difference and the other supports you need? I mean have they indicated anything?
政府有沒有給你一個時間表或其他什麼?他們何時能夠為您提供諸如差異學分和您需要的其他支援等確定性?我的意思是他們有顯示什麼嗎?
Rhona M. Delfrari - Chief Sustainability Officer & Executive VP of Stakeholder Engagement
Rhona M. Delfrari - Chief Sustainability Officer & Executive VP of Stakeholder Engagement
It's Rhona again, Robert. I mean everybody, there's commitment from the government to move this forward as well because everybody, again, as I mentioned, everybody has the same shared outcome we're trying to achieve, but I think it's hard to guess when you're having discussions that are complex like this, it's hard to put an exact date on it.
又是羅娜,羅伯特。我的意思是每個人,政府也承諾推動這一進程,因為每個人,再次,正如我提到的,每個人都有我們正在努力實現的共同成果,但我認為當你進行討論時很難猜測如此複雜的事情,很難確定確切的日期。
But I think everybody wants to get this going because we want to see these decarbonization projects underway, and that's what the governments want and that's what our sector wants.
但我認為每個人都希望實現這一目標,因為我們希望看到這些脫碳計畫正在進行,這就是政府想要的,也是我們產業想要的。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. McKenzie for closing comments.
謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回麥肯齊先生以徵求結束意見。
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Jonathan M. McKenzie - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director
Great. Well, I'd just like to thank everybody for their interest in the company and attending the call and wish everybody a great rest of your day, and we look forward to seeing you on March 5. Thank you very much.
偉大的。好吧,我只想感謝大家對公司的興趣並參加電話會議,並祝大家度過愉快的一天,我們期待 3 月 5 日見到您。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。