CSX Corporation (CSX) 2013 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation. Sir, you may begin.

各位女士、各位先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2013 年第三季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。在本次會議期間，所有與會者將以僅聆聽模式參與。接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Laurie, and good morning, everyone, and again, welcome to CSX Corporation's Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Presentation. The presentation material that we'll review this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the investor section. In addition, following the presentation, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on that same website. Here representing CSX Corporation this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Laurie，各位早安，再次歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2013 年第三季財報簡報。我們今天早上將檢視的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可在 CSX.com 的投資人專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，網路直播與播客重播也將在同一網站提供。今天早上代表 CSX Corporation 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。

Now, before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide 2. The disclosure identifies forward-looking statements, as well as risks and uncertainties, that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements. In addition, let me remind everyone that at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session with the research analysts.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報以及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露事項。該揭露說明了前瞻性陳述，以及可能導致實際表現與這些陳述所預期結果出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。另外也提醒各位，在簡報結束時，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。

That said, with approximately 30 analysts covering CSX, I would still ask, as a courtesy, for everyone to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question. With that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

話雖如此，鑑於約有 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，仍請各位基於禮貌，將提問限制為一個主要問題與一個追問。接下來，我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Last evening, CSX reported third quarter earnings per share of $0.46; up from $0.44 in the same period last year. The quarter benefited from overall revenue growth, excellent operating results, and items that are outlined in the quarterly financial report and covered later in the presentation. As the energy markets continue to evolve, our business mix is increasingly favoring Merchandise and Intermodal movements. The team is effectively managing this change by capitalizing on the modest growth in the economy and by focusing relentlessly on safety, service improvement, and asset efficiency. These are important drivers of our foundation for long-term profitable growth.

謝謝你，David，各位早安。昨晚，CSX 公布第三季每股盈餘為 0.46 美元，高於去年同期的 0.44 美元。本季受惠於整體營收成長、優異的營運成果，以及季度財務報告中所列並將於稍後簡報中說明的項目。隨著能源市場持續演變，我們的業務組合正日益偏向一般貨運（Merchandise）與聯運（Intermodal）運輸。團隊正有效管理這項變化：把握經濟溫和成長的契機，並持續不懈地聚焦於安全、服務改善與資產效率。這些都是我們建立長期獲利成長基礎的重要驅動因素。

In the quarter, this foundation helped our operating income and operating ratio remain strong at $854 million and 71.5%, respectively. The 31,000 employees of CSX have learned from experience that the best way to stay on track through the ups and downs in our marketplace is to focus relentlessly on the things that are in our control. As we go through today's presentation, I think you'll see we're doing that very well as we focus our resources on capturing the longer-term opportunity in rail transportation. We'll begin our discussion with Clarence, who will provide a more in-depth analysis of the top line results and a forward outlook. Clarence?

在本季，這項基礎使我們的營業利益與營業比率分別維持強勁，達 8.54 億美元與 71.5%。CSX 的 31,000 名員工從經驗中學到，在市場起伏中保持正軌的最佳方式，就是持續不懈地專注於我們可控的事項。在今天的簡報中，我想各位會看到，我們做得非常好，將資源聚焦於掌握鐵路運輸的長期機會。我們將先由 Clarence 開始，他會就營收端（top line）結果與未來展望提供更深入的分析。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning. Starting at the left side of the chart, total volume increased nearly 3% to over 1.6 million loads in the quarter with mixed performance across the diverse markets we serve. Growth in the Merchandise and Intermodal markets was partially offset by declines in coal volumes. As a result, Merchandise and Intermodal now combine for 82% of our volume. Moving to the right, total revenue increased $105 million to nearly $3 billion in the quarter, reflecting overall volume growth, price increases across most markets, and a $38 million year-over-year increase in liquidated damages. Looking at the bottom of this panel, Merchandise and Intermodal now combine for nearly three-quarters of our overall revenue.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。從圖表左側開始看，本季總運量增加近 3%，超過 160 萬車次（loads），我們所服務的多元市場表現不一。一般貨運與聯運市場的成長，部分被煤炭運量下滑所抵銷。因此，一般貨運與聯運合計目前占我們運量的 82%。再看右側，本季總營收增加 1.05 億美元，接近 30 億美元，反映整體運量成長、多數市場的價格上調，以及違約金（liquidated damages）年增 3,800 萬美元。從本面板底部可見，一般貨運與聯運合計目前占我們整體營收近四分之三。

Next, revenue per unit increased to $1,825. The impact of core pricing gains and liquidated damages was partially offset by the unfavorable mix impact related to growth in Intermodal versus the decline in coal. Finally, core pricing on a same-store sales basis remains solid across nearly all markets. Recall that same-store sales are defined as shipments for the same customer, commodity, and car type and the same origin in destination. These shipments represented 78% of CSX's traffic base for the quarter. On this basis, all-in core pricing was 1% in the quarter; down from 1.5% in the same quarter last year, reflecting continued rate pressure in the export coal market and more modest increases in domestic coal pricing.

接著，每單位營收提升至 1,825 美元。核心定價提升與違約金的影響，部分被不利的組合影響所抵銷，該不利影響與聯運成長相對於煤炭下滑有關。最後，以同店銷售（same-store sales）基礎衡量的核心定價，在幾乎所有市場仍維持穩健。請回想，同店銷售的定義為：同一客戶、商品與車種，且相同起點與終點的出貨。這些出貨在本季占 CSX 運輸基礎的 78%。在此基礎上，本季全包（all-in）核心定價為 1%，低於去年同季的 1.5%，反映出口煤市場持續的運價壓力，以及國內煤定價較為溫和的上漲。

Since we have now greater variability in both our export and domestic coal business, reflecting global market conditions and our fixed to variable contract structure and since our Merchandise and Intermodal markets are becoming a larger portion of our business, we have also provided you with the same-store sales pricing for these two markets on a combined basis. At the bottom of this panel, you can see core pricing for these markets to average 3% for the quarter. This is slightly down from what we've been seeing over the past several quarters, reflecting lower rail inflation, which is embedded in many of our contract escalators. A strong service product provides a solid foundation for pricing above rail inflation over the long-term. We are confident in the value of our product offering and remain focused on profitable growth.

由於我們的出口與國內煤業務變動性提高，反映全球市場狀況以及我們固定轉浮動的合約結構；同時一般貨運與聯運市場在我們業務中的占比也愈來愈大，因此我們也提供這兩個市場合併口徑的同店銷售定價。在本面板底部，各位可以看到，這些市場本季核心定價平均為 3%。這較過去幾季略為下降，反映鐵路通膨較低，而該因素已嵌入我們許多合約的調價條款（escalators）中。強勁的服務產品為長期實現高於鐵路通膨的定價提供了穩固基礎。我們對自身產品供給的價值充滿信心，並將持續專注於獲利性成長。

Now let's look at the individual markets in more detail, starting with Coal. Coal revenue declined 9% in the quarter to $720 million. Domestic coal shipments declined 7%, impacted by lower electrical demand and high stockpiles in our service territory. Export coal volume declined 10% on softer demand for US thermal and metallurgical coals, due to a global oversupply of coal. Finally, total revenue per unit was down 2%, with lower export pricing more than offsetting the modest domestic pricing gains.

現在我們更詳細地看看各個市場，先從煤炭開始。本季煤炭營收下滑 9%，至 7.20 億美元。國內煤出貨量下降 7%，受電力需求降低以及我們服務區域內庫存偏高影響。出口煤運量下降 10%，由於全球煤炭供給過剩，導致美國動力煤與冶金煤需求轉弱。最後，每單位總營收下降 2%，出口定價下滑的影響，超過國內定價小幅上升所帶來的抵銷。

Next, let's look at the Merchandise business. Overall, Merchandise revenue increased 7% to over $1.7 billion. Chemicals remains the key driver for the industrial sector, growing 11% on strength in energy-related products including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and frac sand. Overall volume in the agricultural sector was slightly down. Feed grain shipments declined as a result of low inventories, due to last year's severe drought. In addition, ethanol shipments declined due to lower gasoline demand and production levels. Finally, in the construction sector, building products and industrial waste increased due to high construction activity and the continued recovery in the residential housing market.

接下來，我們看看一般貨運業務。整體而言，一般貨運營收成長 7%，至超過 17 億美元。化學品仍是工業部門的關鍵驅動因素，受能源相關產品（包括原油、液化石油氣與壓裂砂）需求強勁帶動，成長 11%。農業部門的整體運量略為下降。由於去年嚴重乾旱導致庫存偏低，飼料穀物出貨量下滑。此外，因汽油需求與產量水準較低，乙醇出貨量下降。最後，在建築部門，由於建築活動熱絡以及住宅房市持續復甦，建材與工業廢棄物運量增加。

Moving to the next page, let's review the Intermodal business. Intermodal revenue increased 8% to $431 million. Domestic volume was up nearly 9%, setting a new quarterly CSX record driven by growth with our existing customers and continued highway-to-rail conversions. International volume was up 3% as growth with existing customers and from new service offerings more than offset volume losses from a carrier port shift. Total Intermodal revenue per unit increased 2% on core pricing gains. Finally, 90% of our Intermodal traffic is now moving in lanes that are double stack cleared and that number will continue to grow through strategic network investments, most significantly in the Virginia Avenue Tunnel clearance project in Washington DC.

接著翻到下一頁，讓我們回顧聯運（Intermodal）業務。聯運營收成長 8%，達 4.31 億美元。國內運量成長近 9%，在既有客戶成長與持續由公路轉鐵路（highway-to-rail）帶動下，創下 CSX 單季新紀錄。國際運量成長 3%，既有客戶成長與新服務方案帶來的增量，已足以抵銷因承運商港口轉移所造成的運量流失。聯運每單位營收成長 2%，主要來自核心定價（core pricing）提升。最後，我們目前有 90% 的聯運貨量行駛於已完成雙層堆疊（double stack）淨空的路線，且此比例將透過策略性網路投資持續提升，其中最重要的是華盛頓特區 Virginia Avenue Tunnel 淨空改善專案。

Now let's turn to the outlook for the fourth quarter. Looking forward, we expect stable to favorable conditions for 79% of our markets and the overall volume outlook for the fourth quarter is positive. Looking at some of the key markets, agricultural is favorable with higher year-over-year crop yield supporting mid-teens growth in grain shipments. We expect growth in chemicals as we continue to capture opportunities created by the expanding domestic oil and gas industries. Intermodal growth will continue as our strategic network investments and service reliability continue to support highway-to-rail conversions. In addition, we will be cycling the impact of Hurricane Sandy from last year's fourth quarter.

現在我們來看第四季展望。展望未來，我們預期 79% 的市場將呈現穩定至有利的環境，而第四季整體運量展望為正向。就部分關鍵市場而言，農業面偏有利，年對年作物單產提高可支撐穀物出貨量達中十位數（mid-teens）的成長。我們預期化學品將成長，因我們持續掌握國內油氣產業擴張所帶來的機會。聯運成長將延續，因我們的策略性網路投資與服務可靠度持續支持由公路轉鐵路的轉換。此外，我們也將進入去年第四季颶風珊迪（Hurricane Sandy）影響的比較基期循環。

Export coal is expected to grow slightly despite soft global market conditions, as we're cycling weaker comparisons from last year's fourth quarter. That said, pricing levels will be lower as we continue to focus on keeping US coal competitive globally. The outlook for the automotive market is neutral as the benefit of increased vehicle production is offset by competitive losses. Finally, domestic coal volume will decline. We will continue to expect the full-year volume will be 5% to 10% lower on a year-over-year basis as we expect fourth quarter volume to decline slightly more than that range.

儘管全球市場狀況疲弱，出口煤預期仍將小幅成長，因我們正處於去年第四季較弱比較基期的循環。不過，定價水準將較低，因我們將持續聚焦於維持美國煤在全球市場的競爭力。汽車市場展望為中性，因車輛產量增加的效益被競爭流失所抵銷。最後，國內煤運量將下滑。我們仍預期全年運量將較去年同期下降 5% 至 10%，因我們預期第四季運量降幅將略高於該區間。

Now, I'll wrap up on the next slide. The slow steady expansion of the US economy is expected to continue with projected fourth quarter GDP growth of 1.7%. In addition, both the ISM purchasing managers and the customer inventory indices point to continued growth. This macro environment is supportive of growth across all three merchandise sectors; industrial, agricultural, and construction. In addition, the Intermodal business continues to grow at rates that well exceed the rate of the broader economy. Finally, coal headwinds are expected to persist into 2014. Both the export and domestic coal markets are challenged due to the low demand levels and the high inventories. Thank you and I'll turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

接著我將在下一張投影片做個總結。美國經濟緩慢且穩健的擴張預期將持續，第四季 GDP 成長預估為 1.7%。此外，ISM 採購經理人指數與客戶庫存指標皆顯示成長可望延續。此一總體環境有利於三大一般貨物（merchandise）部門全面成長：工業、農業與建築。此外，聯運業務仍以遠高於整體經濟的速度成長。最後，煤炭的不利因素預期將延續至 2014 年。由於需求水準偏低且庫存偏高，出口與國內煤炭市場皆面臨挑戰。謝謝各位，我將把簡報交給 Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運成果。

Thank you, Mr. Gooden, and good morning to everyone. Allow me to be brief, as I'm happy to once again report that CSX continues to demonstrate excellence in what have been our key focus areas over the last few years; safety, customer service, and efficiency. On the chart, I'll begin with the safety on the left. The personal injury rate was essentially unchanged from the prior year and the train accident rate improved 23% to 1.70. This reflects our continued commitment to keep our employees and the communities where we work safe. Moving to service, on-time performance remains at record levels, reflecting the diligent efforts of our organization. Looking at the network, velocities improved once again and dwell is at an all-time low, which means that customers are receiving outstanding service while we continue to maximize our assets. Moving to the far right and as a result of all these efforts, we still expect to deliver over $150 million in efficiency savings this year.

謝謝您，Gooden 先生，也向各位道早安。容我簡短說明，我很高興再次報告，CSX 持續在過去幾年我們的關鍵聚焦領域展現卓越表現：安全、客戶服務與效率。在圖表上，我先從左側的安全談起。人身傷害率與去年相比基本持平，而列車事故率改善 23%，降至 1.70。這反映我們持續致力於確保員工以及我們營運所在社區的安全。再看服務面，準點率仍維持在創紀錄水準，反映組織的努力與投入。就路網而言，運行速度再次提升，停留時間（dwell）降至歷史新低，這表示客戶獲得卓越服務，同時我們持續將資產效益最大化。最後看最右側，基於上述各項努力，我們仍預期今年可實現超過 1.5 億美元的效率節省。

Let's talk about resource management on the next slide. The Company's improvement in operating efficiency complements the great service CSX is providing to its customers. Carloads and gross ton miles were up about 3% in the third quarter and we absorbed this additional workload with fewer resources on a year-over-year basis. As you move down the chart, you can see road crew starts were nearly 3% lower as volume growth was largely incorporated onto existing trains. Additionally, the active locomotive count was 3% lower than last year and total operations employment was down 4% in the quarter. This demonstrates our ongoing commitment to adjust resource levels to operate reliably and efficiently.

下一張投影片我們來談資源管理。公司在營運效率上的改善，與 CSX 提供給客戶的優質服務相輔相成。第三季車皮數（carloads）與總噸英里（gross ton miles）約成長 3%，而我們以較去年同期更少的資源吸收了這些新增工作量。往下看圖表可見，路線乘務開工次數（road crew starts）下降近 3%，因運量成長多數被整合到既有列車上。此外，使用中的機車數（active locomotive count）較去年下降 3%，而本季營運部門總員工數下降 4%。這展現我們持續致力於調整資源水準，以可靠且高效率地營運。

Now if I could, let me discuss one of our productivity initiatives in a bit more detail on the next slide. Gross ton miles per road crew start was up over 6% versus last year. Now remember that crew costs are variable with train starts and the improvement in this metric allows us to grow volume without significant incremental costs. Now, this ability to absorb volume with an existing train service does not happen by accident and while it takes many departments working together to make this so, I want to thank our operations research and service planning teams who develop sophisticated modeling tools that allow us to optimize our complex network. Field execution of this operating plan enables us to deliver this excellent service while also realizing the greater efficiencies. Now going forward, there's still additional capacity on existing trains and as business grows, we'll absorb that volume whenever possible, always monitoring customer service levels closely to ensure reliable and predictable train performance.

接下來若可以，讓我在下一張投影片更詳細說明我們其中一項生產力提升計畫。每次路線乘務開工的總噸英里（gross ton miles per road crew start）較去年提升超過 6%。請記得，乘務成本會隨列車開行次數（train starts）而變動，而此指標的改善使我們能在不產生顯著增量成本的情況下擴大運量。以既有列車服務吸收運量的能力並非偶然；雖然需要多個部門協同合作才能達成，但我特別要感謝我們的作業研究與服務規劃團隊，他們開發精密的建模工具，使我們能最佳化複雜的路網。對此營運計畫的現場執行，使我們在提供卓越服務的同時，也能實現更高效率。展望未來，既有列車仍有額外產能；隨著業務成長，我們將在可能時吸收該運量，同時密切監控客戶服務水準，以確保列車表現可靠且可預期。

Now let me wrap up. The safety of our employees and the communities we work in remains a primary focus for us and we urge our employees every day to look out for and support one another in this endeavor. Service and customer satisfaction remain at high levels and we remain committed to providing flexible solutions for our customers to enable their growth while driving improved asset utilization and of course, long-term value for you, the shareholders. Finally, as I mentioned earlier, we remain on track to deliver our $150 million in efficiency savings this year. With that, let me turn it back to Fredrik for his review of the financials.

現在讓我做個總結。員工以及我們營運所在社區的安全仍是我們的首要重點，我們每天都提醒員工在此目標上彼此照應、互相支持。服務與客戶滿意度仍維持在高水準；我們也將持續致力於為客戶提供彈性解決方案，以支持其成長，同時提升資產使用效率，並且為各位股東創造長期價值。最後，如我先前所提，我們仍按計畫在今年實現 1.5 億美元的效率節省。接著我把時間交回 Fredrik，請他回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar, and good morning, everyone. Starting to the left of the slide, revenue increased $105 million in the third quarter to $3 billion as gains in Merchandise and Intermodal continued offset declines in coal. At the same time, other revenue, which included $51 million of liquidated damages in the quarter, were $38 million year-over-year, also contributed to the improvements. Moving to the right, relative to the third quarter of 2012, operating income was flat at $854 million. Here, higher revenue and productivity gains were offset by the cycling of last year's SunRail gain, as well as higher incentive compensation, inflation, and volume-related costs. As a result, the Company's operating ratio increased 100 basis points to 71.5%. Overall, EPS increased to $0.46 per share up 5% versus last year, reflecting growth in net earnings and the impact of share repurchases.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。從投影片左側開始，第三季營收增加 1.05 億美元至 30 億美元，因一般貨物（Merchandise）與聯運的成長持續抵銷煤炭下滑。同時，其他營收（other revenue）在本季包含 5,100 萬美元的違約金（liquidated damages），年對年增加 3,800 萬美元，也對改善有所貢獻。再看右側，相較 2012 年第三季，營業利益持平於 8.54 億美元。在此，較高的營收與生產力提升，被去年 SunRail 利得的比較基期循環、以及較高的獎勵性薪酬、通膨與與運量相關成本所抵銷。因此，公司營業比率（operating ratio）上升 100 個基點至 71.5%。整體而言，每股盈餘（EPS）提升至每股 0.46 美元，較去年成長 5%，反映淨利成長以及庫藏股回購的影響。

As we turn to our next slide, let's briefly discuss how fuel lag impacted the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the effect of the lag in our fuel surcharge program was $10 million favorable. This reflects $6 million of negative in-quarter lag during the third quarter of 2013 versus $16 million of negative in-quarter lag for the same period last year. Based on the current forward curve, we would expect the year-over-year fuel lag impact to be slightly unfavorable in the fourth quarter.

接著看下一張投影片，我們簡要說明燃油落後（fuel lag）如何影響本季。以年對年來看，我們燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）機制的落後效應帶來 1,000 萬美元的有利影響。這反映 2013 年第三季當季落後（in-quarter lag）為負 600 萬美元，相較去年同期當季落後為負 1,600 萬美元。依目前遠期曲線（forward curve）推估，我們預期第四季年對年燃油落後影響將略為不利。

Turning to the next slide, let's review our expenses. Overall expenses increased 5% in the quarter. I'll talk about the top three expense items in more detail on the next slide, but let me briefly speak to the bottom two on this chart. Depreciation was up 3% to $277 million, due to the increase in the net asset base. Equipment rent was down 2% to $94 million, predominantly driven by reduction in locomotive leases.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我們檢視一下我們的費用。整體費用在本季增加了5%。我會在下一張投影片更詳細說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談談這張圖表中的後兩項。折舊增加3%至2.77億美元，原因是淨資產基礎增加。設備租賃費用下降2%至9,400萬美元，主要是由於機車租賃減少所致。

Now let's discuss our Labor and Fringe, MS&O, and Fuel Expense in more detail on the next slide. Starting to the left, Labor and Fringe expense increased 5% or $37 million versus last year. Here, the primary driver was higher incentive compensation as labor efficiency, volume-related costs, and wage inflation all offset each other in the quarter. Looking at the fourth quarter, we currently expect headcount to remain roughly flat on a sequential basis, although as we continue to demonstrate, we will adjust our resources to reflect the current volume levels and drive efficiency. In addition, we expect labor inflation in the fourth quarter to continue to increase $15 million to $20 million year-over-year and the incentive compensation headwind to be slightly less than the level we experienced in the third quarter.

現在我們在下一張投影片更詳細討論人力與附加福利、MS&O，以及燃料費用。先從左邊開始，人力與附加福利費用較去年增加5%，或3,700萬美元。其中主要驅動因素是較高的激勵性薪酬，因為本季勞動效率、與運量相關的成本以及薪資通膨彼此相互抵銷。展望第四季，我們目前預期人數將在季比基礎上大致持平；不過如同我們持續展現的，我們會調整資源以反映目前的運量水準並提升效率。此外，我們預期第四季的人力通膨年增將持續增加1,500萬至2,000萬美元，而激勵性薪酬的不利因素將略低於我們在第三季所經歷的水準。

Moving to the right, MS&O expense increased 10% or $51 million versus last year, driven primarily by the cycling of last year's SunRail gain and inflation. Looking at the fourth quarter, MS&O expense will continue to be impacted by the cycling of real estate gains, which, as a reminder, totaled $35 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. Lastly, Fuel Expense increased 3% or $10 million versus last year, as an improvement in efficiency and price was more than offset by volume-related costs and adjustment to interline fuel receivable, which was the primary driver of the unfavorable variance in other fuel.

再往右看，MS&O費用較去年增加10%，或5,100萬美元，主要由去年SunRail收益的比較基期效應以及通膨所驅動。展望第四季，MS&O費用仍將受到不動產收益比較基期效應的影響；提醒一下，2012年第四季該等收益合計為3,500萬美元。最後，燃料費用較去年增加3%，或1,000萬美元，因效率與價格改善所帶來的有利影響，已被與運量相關的成本以及對聯運燃料應收款的調整所抵銷；後者是「其他燃料」不利差異的主要原因。

Now let me wrap it up on the next slide. In the third quarter, CSX once again displayed the benefits of a diversified portfolio business to generate record third quarter earnings per share. This was achieved by ongoing strength in our Merchandise and Intermodal businesses, and helped by $51 million of liquidated damages in the quarter. Through the first three quarters of the year, CSX has generated nearly $2.7 billion in operating income, a 70.2% operating ratio, essentially flat to last year, and earnings per share of $1.43, despite continuing coal headwinds in both the export and domestic markets. As a result of this performance, we now expect CSX to deliver 2013 earnings per share that is slightly up compared to the $1.79 that we delivered in 2012. We expect to do so despite the fourth quarter that is not anticipated to include any real estate gains or material liquidated damages, as I mentioned earlier. At the same time, we will be cycling below the line $57 million pretax gain on the sale of a nonoperating property last year.

現在讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。在第三季，CSX再次展現多元化投資組合業務的優勢，創下第三季每股盈餘新高。這得益於我們商品與聯運業務的持續強勁表現，並且本季有5,100萬美元的違約金收入（liquidated damages）助益。今年前三季，儘管出口與國內市場的煤炭逆風仍在，CSX仍創造了接近27億美元的營業利益、70.2%的營業比率（operating ratio）（與去年基本持平），以及1.43美元的每股盈餘。基於這樣的表現，我們現在預期CSX 2013年的每股盈餘將較2012年我們達成的1.79美元略有成長。我們預期即使第四季如我先前提到的，預計不會包含任何不動產收益或重大違約金收入，也能達成。同時，我們也將面臨去年出售一項非營運性資產所帶來5,700萬美元稅前收益的比較基期（列於營業利益以下）。

With our earnings remaining strong in this evolving energy environment, we remain committed to deploying cash within the balanced framework that prioritizes investment in the business to drive long-term value creation, along with dividends and share repurchase that also provide value for our shareholders. At the same time, we continue to target an improving credit profile that balances between financial flexibility and cost of capital through a full business cycle.

在這個不斷演變的能源環境中，我們的獲利仍然強勁；我們將持續致力於在一個平衡的框架下運用現金，優先投資於業務以推動長期價值創造，同時也透過股利與庫藏股回購為股東創造價值。同時，我們也持續以改善信用體質為目標，在完整景氣循環中於財務彈性與資本成本之間取得平衡。

Looking forward to 2015, we continue to target a two-year CAGR of 10% to 15% for EPS. However, due to the continuing near-term coal headwinds, especially in the export market, this target has become more challenging and achieving this guidance will most likely not follow a linear path requiring higher growth in 2015. Looking at the operating ratio, by continuing to focus on the things that are more within our control -- safety, service, efficiency, above-inflation pricing, and profitable volume growth, CSX will continue to drive towards a high 60s operating ratio by 2015 and sustain a mid-60s operating ratio longer-term. With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

展望2015年，我們仍以每股盈餘兩年期年複合成長率（CAGR）10%至15%為目標。然而，由於短期煤炭逆風持續存在，尤其是在出口市場，這個目標變得更具挑戰；要達成此指引很可能不會呈線性路徑，將需要2015年有更高的成長。就營業比率而言，透過持續聚焦於我們較能掌控的事項——安全、服務、效率、超越通膨的定價，以及具獲利性的運量成長——CSX將持續推動在2015年前達到60%後段（high 60s）的營業比率，並在長期維持60%中段（mid-60s）的營業比率。接下來我把簡報交回Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Fredrik. Since the beginning of 2012, the CSX team has successfully overcome almost $0.75 billion dollars in coal revenue loss due to the transition taking place in the energy markets. As you heard this morning, we expect that this transition will continue into next year. As it does, our focus will be the same. First, relentlessly pursuing safety, customer service, and efficiency; the things we control the most. Our culture and systems are built for this and it has seen us through many ups and downs in the marketplace. Second, continue to pursue opportunities in our growing Merchandise and Intermodal businesses. That growth is already happening as the economy continues its slow recovery. Third, continue to invest in the most promising long-term growth opportunities we see, especially in our Intermodal business where we are finding that the marketplace is very receptive to our enhanced capabilities.

謝謝你，Fredrik。自2012年初以來，CSX團隊已成功克服因能源市場轉型所造成、接近7.5億美元的煤炭營收流失。如同各位今天早上聽到的，我們預期這項轉型將延續到明年。在此過程中，我們的重點將保持不變。第一，持續不懈地追求安全、客戶服務與效率——這些是我們最能掌控的。我們的文化與系統就是為此而建立，也讓我們在市場的多次起伏中一路走來。第二，持續在成長中的商品與聯運業務中尋求機會。隨著經濟持續緩慢復甦，這樣的成長已經在發生。第三，持續投資於我們所看到最具前景的長期成長機會，特別是在聯運業務方面；我們發現市場對我們強化後的能力反應非常正面。

Our third quarter results show the resiliency of this team and its ability to work through transitions, while also managing to grow volumes in most of the product markets we serve. Once the transition in the energy markets is complete, we believe that the investors will appreciate the new diversity and vibrancy of our product portfolio, especially when paired with an underlying business that is strong, highly focused, and able to capitalize on opportunities in the near and long-term. This team's energy and motivation is not only fueled by the market opportunities we see now in Merchandise and Intermodal, but also by the ongoing belief in the long-term outlook for rail transportation as population and consumption increases. American manufacturing gains competitiveness and the global trade requires the movement of products across this country in ways that are good for the economy and the environment. That's what we do. With that, we'll be pleased to take your questions.

我們第三季的結果展現了這個團隊的韌性，以及在轉型期間仍能推進工作的能力，同時也成功在我們服務的大多數產品市場中提升運量。一旦能源市場的轉型完成，我們相信投資人將會認可我們產品組合新的多元性與活力，尤其是搭配一個基本面強勁、聚焦度高，且能在短期與長期把握機會的核心業務。這個團隊的能量與動力，不僅來自我們目前在商品與聯運所看到的市場機會，也來自於我們對鐵路運輸長期前景的持續信念——隨著人口與消費增加。美國製造業競爭力提升，以及全球貿易需要以有利於經濟與環境的方式，將產品在全國各地移動。這就是我們所做的事。接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Anthony Gallo, Wells Fargo.

Anthony Gallo，富國銀行。

Congratulations. I'm wondering if there are other markets that may lend themselves to the type of pricing flexibility that you introduced into the export coal market? The one that comes to mind is crude, obviously, where you've got differentials that can play a role in volume. Are there other markets that lend themselves to that flexibility?

恭喜。我想請教，是否還有其他市場可能適用於你們在出口煤炭市場導入的那種定價彈性？我想到的一個例子顯然是原油，因為價差（differentials）可能會在運量上發揮作用。還有其他市場也具備那樣的彈性嗎？

Anthony, this is Clarence Gooden. We've looked at a couple of the markets, but we just haven't seen one. Crude was one that we looked on early on and we just did not see where we had any flexibility at all to price as we do in the coal market.

Anthony，我是Clarence Gooden。我們看過幾個市場，但目前還沒有看到合適的。原油是我們早期就研究過的一個，但我們確實沒有看到任何像煤炭市場那樣具備定價彈性的空間。

Okay. I hope this is related question, does the change in your coal pricing influence how liquidated damages may or may not occur next year? Thank you.

好的。希望這是相關的問題：你們煤炭定價的改變，是否會影響明年違約金收入（liquidated damages）可能發生或不發生的情況？謝謝。

It does. On the fixed variable, there would be no liquidated damages. The fixed part almost, in effect, it's replacing the liquidated damages. All the other contracts that are in coal that are not fixed variable you could assume would have liquidated damages applicable.

會的。在固定／變動（fixed variable）合約下，不會有違約金收入。固定的那一部分幾乎在效果上等同於取代了違約金。至於煤炭業務中其他不是固定／變動的合約，你可以假設都會適用違約金條款。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Ken Hoexter, BofA Merrill Lynch.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行美林。

Clarence, on coal, you noted export coal pricing could be down next year or as you move into fourth quarter. Can you talk about the scale necessary? If you look at API at 81, 82, is it still in the money for producers and what kind of scale do you have to take pricing down?

Clarence，關於煤炭，你提到出口煤的價格明年可能會下滑，或是在進入第四季時下滑。你能談談需要下調的幅度嗎？如果看 API 指數在 81、82 的水準，對生產商來說仍然有利可圖嗎？你們需要把價格下調到什麼程度？

Ken, I think you'll see, in the case of the export coal, just a slight downward movement in the rates for the thermal side of the business into coal, particularly with that API index starting with the 7.9 or 8.0 is essentially to keep our producers in the marketplace during this downturn until it kicks back up. It will only be a very slight downward movement in our rates and you'll see the producers having to absorb a lot of that downturn in order for them to keep their mines in production.

Ken，我認為就出口煤而言，你會看到我們在業務中的動力煤（thermal）部分費率會略微下調，特別是在 API 指數從 7.9 或 8.0 開始的情況下，基本上是為了在這段低迷期讓我們的生產商能留在市場，直到行情回升。我們的費率只會非常小幅地下調，而你也會看到，為了讓礦場維持生產，生產商必須吸收相當大一部分的下行壓力。

On domestic coal volumes, you noted that was going to be down 5% to 10% throughout this year. Are there any thoughts initially on how you look at next year? Are the plants shut that need to be shut or do you still look at accelerating declines on the utility side?

關於國內煤炭運量，你提到今年全年會下滑 5% 到 10%。對於明年初步有什麼看法嗎？該關閉的電廠都已經關了嗎？還是你仍然認為公用事業端會加速下滑？

I think for next year, the plants that are down currently today that are, for both have been shuttered or that are being impacted by low natural gas prices, will stay in that mode as long as gas prices are down. The major impact we will see next year will remain in our southern utilities where stockpiles continue to be stubbornly high and will probably remain that way through the mid-year or beyond.

我認為明年，目前已經停運的電廠——不論是已經關閉的，或是受到天然氣低價影響的——只要天然氣價格維持低檔，就會持續維持這種狀態。我們明年看到的主要影響仍會集中在南部的公用事業客戶，因為庫存仍然頑固地偏高，可能會一路維持到年中甚至更久。

Appreciate the insight.

感謝你的分享。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays Capital.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊資本。

Fredrik, I wanted to come back to that 10% to 15% earnings CAGR you have for 2014 and 2015. Sounds like, with the coal headwinds that Clarence is talking about heading into next year, you could have maybe a little bit worse outcome than flat coal like you had been predicting before. What are the assumptions you're baking into 2015 that gives you the confidence you're still going to get that CAGR in two years?

Fredrik，我想回到你們對 2014 與 2015 年提出的 10% 到 15% 盈利 CAGR。聽起來，考量 Clarence 提到明年煤炭的逆風，你們的結果可能會比先前預期的「煤炭持平」更差一些。你們在 2015 年的假設是什麼，讓你仍有信心兩年內可以達到這個 CAGR？

As we said and I've said this now for a period of time, it's become more challenging because of both what we're seeing in the export market and the fact that the utility stockpiles has not worked itself down as we'd expected originally by the end of this year. The economy, though, it continues to be strong or growing at a relatively slow pace, but it's still moving forward, which is a good sign. What we said what we laid out the guidance was that we expect coal to be flat and as we look at 2014 and 2015, in order to get that, we'd like to get pretty close to that assumption. Clearly, with continued strong productivity gains, a little bit stronger pricing than we have or the economy's doing a little bit better than we think, we still think there's a shot at getting to that 10% to 15% CAGR. But clearly, it has to be not linear at this point based on what we're seeing in the coal markets today, which is why we think that 2015 has to probably be a little bit higher growth rate than what we're going to expect in 2014.

如同我們所說、我也已經說了一段時間，因為出口市場的情況，以及公用事業端庫存沒有如我們原先預期在今年底前下降，確實變得更具挑戰。不過經濟仍然強勁，或說以相對較慢的速度成長，但仍在向前推進，這是個好跡象。我們在提出指引時說過，我們預期煤炭會持平；而在看 2014 與 2015 時，為了達成目標，我們希望能盡量接近這個假設。很明顯地，若生產力持續大幅提升、定價比我們目前看到的稍強，或經濟表現比我們預期更好，我們仍認為有機會達到 10% 到 15% 的 CAGR。但很清楚的是，基於目前煤炭市場的狀況，這不會是線性的成長；這也是為什麼我們認為 2015 年的成長率可能必須比我們預期的 2014 年更高一些。

Is that going to be growth in the merchandise segment or are you going to have a bigger ask on the productivity side as well?

那會是商品（merchandise）部門的成長，還是你們也會在生產力面要求更大的提升？

I think that we will see it. I think as you've seen in the past, here, one thing that you know when you layout a plan, it really never comes to fruition exactly the way you had planned, so you're going to have to be flexible and agile and that's exactly the way we execute. We focus on the things that we control and productivity is one of the areas that we do have relatively good control. If we also can get some help on the commercial side, both with price and additional volume, there is still a path to get there.

我認為我們會看到。我想你過去也看過，當你制定一個計畫時，實際結果往往不會完全照原先規劃實現，所以你必須保持彈性與敏捷，而這正是我們的執行方式。我們專注在自己能控制的事情，而生產力就是我們相對能良好掌控的領域之一。如果在商務端也能得到一些助力，包括價格與額外運量，我們仍然有一條路徑可以達成。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Christian Wetherbee, Citi Research.

Christian Wetherbee，花旗研究。

A question just on the utility coal contract side -- I think you guys have mentioned that about 20% of the book of business comes up for repricing. Clarence, maybe an update on what the uptake of the fixed and variable strategy that you're taking has been or is it too early, yet, to determine that because the contracts haven't been settled?

問題是關於公用事業煤炭合約這一塊——我想你們提過大約有 20% 的業務組合會重新議價。Clarence，能否更新一下你們採取的固定與浮動策略的採用情況？還是說現在判斷仍太早，因為合約尚未敲定？

It's a little too early right now, Christian, to determine that. As we told you in the past, our fixed variable contracts account for about 25% of our total domestic coal revenue. We've got about 20% of our utility contracts up for renewal this year, so depending on how that goes, by the end of the year, we'll have a better outlook on that.

Christian，現在要判斷還有點太早。如同我們過去告訴你的，我們的固定/浮動合約約占國內煤炭總營收的 25%。今年大約有 20% 的公用事業合約到期續約，因此要看進展如何；到年底我們會對此有更清楚的展望。

Just a follow-up, as you think about the structure of maybe some of these contracts historically, we've tended to think about coal contracts on the longer term basis. Is it fair to assume that maybe these contracts will be in shorter duration, as short as maybe a year, or do they get less than that? Do they get longer than that? Just curious what your thoughts are there.

再追問一下，當你思考這些合約過去的結構時，我們通常把煤炭合約視為較長期的安排。是否可以合理假設，這些合約的期限會變短，可能短到一年左右，或甚至更短？還是會比這更長？只是想了解你對此的看法。

They tend to be longer than a year.

它們通常會超過一年。

Okay. And the expectation would be as they renew, they would still stay longer than a year?

好的。那預期在續約時，期限仍會維持超過一年嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Thank you very much for the time, I appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝你撥冗，我很感激。

Allison Landry, Credit Suisse.

Allison Landry，瑞士信貸。

My first question was on Intermodal pricing. It seems that the RPU was fairly solid, but if I think about the growth in domestic versus international, it seems that would have a negative mix impact, which seems to imply that pricing was actually quite robust during the quarter. I was wondering if you had any comments on that?

我的第一個問題是關於聯運（Intermodal）定價。看起來每單位收入（RPU）相當穩健，但如果我從國內與國際的成長來看，似乎會帶來不利的組合（mix）影響，這似乎意味著本季的定價其實相當強勁。想請問你們對此有沒有任何評論？

Allison, pricing was strong for Intermodal during the quarter and it was on the domestic side, that is true.

Allison，本季聯運的定價確實很強，而且主要是在國內端，這點沒錯。

Okay. Am I thinking about it correctly that the domestic Intermodal has a shorter length of haul than what you're moving internationally?

好的。我這樣理解對嗎：國內聯運的平均運距比你們做國際運輸時更短？

Not necessarily true. In fact, it could be just the exact opposite. It depends on whether or not the international traffic is originating on the West Coast and coming East to us or originating in our East Coast ports and coming inland. We'll tend to have a longer length of haul on that traffic that we interchange from the Western carriers than we do have the traffic that originates in the East. It just depends on which direction it's coming from and whether or not the private asset parts of it also on the domestic side have a difference in the pricing.

不一定。事實上，可能正好相反。這取決於國際貨流是從西岸起運再往東交給我們，或是從我們東岸港口起運再往內陸走。我們從西部承運商轉運（interchange）過來的貨流，運距往往比東岸起運的貨流更長。這取決於它從哪個方向來，以及在國內端私有資產（private asset）等因素是否也會造成定價差異。

I got you. Okay, thanks. My follow-up question, in the past you've talked about your coal sourcing moving more towards the Illinois Basin and interest from your southern utility base to start testing that and ultimately, possibly, burning that. How has this changed in light of the mild summer conditions and the lack of inventory drawdowns? Is this something that is off the table in the near-term?

了解。好的，謝謝。我的追問是，過去你們談到煤炭來源更多轉向伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin），而南部公用事業客戶也有興趣開始測試，並最終可能燃用該煤種。在夏季溫和、庫存未能去化的情況下，這件事有什麼變化？短期內這是否已經不再考慮？

No, not all. In fact, the Illinois Basin coal is actually growing for us; both Illinois basin coal now and [Powder River] coal combined are accounting for nearly half of the coal burned on CSX.

不，不是全部。事實上，伊利諾伊盆地煤對我們而言其實正在成長；目前伊利諾伊盆地煤與[粉河]煤合計，約占 CSX 所燃燒煤炭的將近一半。

Okay. Great, thank you very much.

好的。太好了，非常感謝。

Justin Yagerman, Deutsche Bank.

Justin Yagerman，德意志銀行。

Oscar, my question's for you -- your team's done a pretty good job here of offsetting inflation, even with the difficult economy and mix. What I'm curious about is, as we look out, if we're looking at an environment where volumes are flat to down, can you do better than offsetting inflation, do you think? How much wood, basically is what I'm asking, is there left to chop in productivity if we're in this muted growth environment?

Oscar，我的問題是問你的——即使在經濟艱難與組合不利的情況下，你們團隊在抵銷通膨方面做得相當不錯。我好奇的是，往前看，如果我們面對的是運量持平到下滑的環境，你覺得你們能不能做到不只是抵銷通膨、而是做得更好？基本上我想問的是，在這種成長趨緩的環境下，生產力提升還剩多少空間可以再「砍柴」？

Justin, thanks. I might quibble with a pretty good definition. I think we've done a great job for the team, but thanks. If I characterize your question as, can you continue to deliver productivity in softer environments, I think we've proved that we can. The answer to that is yes. Is there more to be had? I think there is.

Justin，謝謝。我可能會對「相當不錯」這個定義稍微挑剔一下。我認為我們團隊做得非常好，但還是謝謝。如果把你的問題概括為：在較疲弱的環境中是否仍能持續交付生產力，我想我們已經證明我們做得到。答案是肯定的。還有更多可以取得嗎？我認為有。

There's a lot of opportunity in our field. When you think of our local serving areas versus our mainline road, there's an opportunity there. Our assets are still -- could use a lot more efficiency in how they're utilized across our system. We see lots of activity going forward. In fact, we just recently completed a review of our next year's productivity savings and happy to say, as well, that we are very much in line with the long-term guidance we've given at this early-stage. There's a lot there to be had and there's a lot of details behind it. I think we're going to talk here in November at one of the analyst conferences and I think I'll be outlining some of the more specifics in that area to give you more confidence in our ability to continue to do that.

我們的營運領域有很多機會。當你想到我們的地方服務區域相對於主幹線路網，這裡面就有機會。我們的資產在整個系統中的使用方式——仍然可以更有效率。我們看到未來會有很多推進中的工作。事實上，我們最近剛完成對明年生產力節省的檢視，也很高興地說，在這個早期階段，我們與先前提供的長期指引非常一致。這裡面還有很多可取得的成果，背後也有很多細節。我想我們會在 11 月的一場分析師會議上談到這些，我也會在那裡概述一些更具體的內容，讓你對我們持續做到這點的能力更有信心。

Great. Our follow-up is at least somewhat related, when I think about the growth in Intermodal as a piece of the overall franchise, a question I get a lot from clients is, how does core Intermodal profitability compare to the rest of the total business? Obviously, and we know the RPU is lower so it takes more volume to create that overall revenue effect, and it would seem obvious that the incrementals are quite good, but if you could give us a quantification, especially now that you've got more of your network double stacked, of how you feel about core Intermodal profitability as it relates to the total business? I think it would give us a good idea of how to think about profitability for the total business given how much growth has taken place here.

很好。我們的追問至少有些相關：當我把聯運（Intermodal）的成長視為整體版圖的一部分時，我常被客戶問到的一個問題是，核心聯運的獲利能力和整體業務其他部分相比如何？顯然我們也知道每單位收入（RPU）較低，所以需要更大的運量才能帶來整體營收效果；而且看起來邊際貢獻應該相當不錯，但如果你能給我們一些量化，特別是現在你們更多路網已完成雙層堆疊（double stack），你們如何看待核心聯運獲利能力相對於整體業務？我想這會讓我們更好地理解：在這裡已經發生這麼多成長的情況下，該如何思考整體業務的獲利能力。

I think, Justin, you answered your question there. If you think about what's occurred over the last couple of years with the double stack clearances that we've done and the fact that we are continuing to make sure, as Clarence alluded to before, have solid pricing gains in that market, as well, coupled with the train density that we've been able to build up over the last few years, the investments we've made there, we think that our profitability is not just on an incremental basis, but an average long-term economic basis is very attractive and at par with the rest of our Merchandise business with maybe one or two exceptions. We feel very good about our ability to not only grow that business going forward, but also make a significant amount of money on it going forward.

Justin，我想你其實已經回答了你的問題。如果你回想過去幾年我們完成的雙層堆疊淨空（clearance）工程，以及我們持續確保——如 Clarence 先前提到的——在該市場也能取得穩健的定價提升，再加上過去幾年我們建立起來的列車密度與我們在那裡所做的投資，我們認為我們的獲利不僅在邊際上表現良好，從長期平均經濟性來看也非常有吸引力，並且與我們其他一般貨運（Merchandise）業務大致相當，可能只有一兩個例外。我們對未來不僅能持續成長該業務、也能在該業務上賺到可觀的錢，感到非常有信心。

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you very much.

好的。這非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Thomas Kim, Goldman Sachs.

Thomas Kim，高盛。

Just wanted to follow up with regard to the question on the 10% to 15% CAGR target. Could you perhaps provide a little bit more color in terms of the breakdown of that? What percentage of that do you anticipate being driven by the ongoing core pricing gains versus improvements in productivity?

我想就 10% 到 15% 的年複合成長率（CAGR）目標追問一下。你能否提供更多細節，說明這個目標的拆解？你預期其中有多少比例來自持續的核心定價提升，多少來自生產力改善？

One of the things we've said in the previous seven or eight years or so, it's been driven a fair amount by a lot of legacy pricing and then clearly, productivity as well. As we now look to the next few years, our view is that it's going to be a little bit more balanced between all three levers; productivity, price, and volume and that's really how we're thinking about it going forward. Clearly, because of some of the challenges we see on the coal side, we do expect the rest of the business to remain pretty robust during this period of time, because of some of the initiatives that we have in place.

我們在過去七、八年左右一直說，這其中相當一部分是由許多既有（legacy）定價所驅動，當然也包括生產力。而現在展望未來幾年，我們的看法是，三個槓桿之間會更為均衡：生產力、價格與運量——這就是我們未來的思考方式。很明顯地，因為我們在煤炭端看到一些挑戰，我們確實預期在這段期間其餘業務會維持相當強韌，這要歸功於我們已經在推動的一些措施。

Thank you. If I could just ask a follow-up question with regard to pricing. We've noticed, in the last quarter or two, some of the companies, in particular some of the brokerages, are starting to face a little bit of pressure with regard to the pricing environment coming from shippers showing reluctance to pay higher freight rates. I'm just wondering, to what extent are you beginning to see any concerns with your ability to raise pricing, in particular in the Intermodal side where there are ongoing pressures within the retail environment with their own ambitions to be pushing up their margins by cutting cost? Thanks.

謝謝。如果可以，我想就定價再追問一下。我們注意到在最近一兩個季度，有些公司——特別是一些貨運經紀商——在定價環境上開始面臨一些壓力，因為託運人對支付更高運費的意願有所降低。我想請問，你們在提高價格的能力上，開始在多大程度上看到任何疑慮？特別是在聯運端，零售環境本身仍有壓力，而零售商也希望透過削減成本來提高自身毛利。謝謝。

We think we offer a good product, a good value. We think our fundamental economics are good. We think that the environmental aspects of the product that we offer, Tom, are pretty good. As always, you get pushback from any of your client base on price increases, but we've been able to get those increases in the marketplace. As you can see in the same-store sale results that we had today, we had a 3% year-over-year improvement in our same-store sales pricing and that compares with last year on the same comparison basis of 3.3%. Most of the difference there has been the difference in what the escalators were for inflation. We feel pretty solid about being able to get above inflation pricing going forward, here, in the next quarters as we move forward.

我們認為我們提供的是好的產品、好的價值。我們認為我們的基本經濟性良好。我們也認為我們所提供產品的環境面向（environmental aspects）相當不錯，Tom。一如往常，任何客戶群對於漲價都會有反彈，但我們一直能在市場上取得這些漲幅。如你今天看到我們公布的同店銷售結果，我們同店銷售定價年增改善 3%，而去年在相同可比基礎下是 3.3%。其中大部分差異來自通膨調整條款（escalators）幅度的不同。我們對於未來幾個季度隨著推進，仍能取得高於通膨的定價，感到相當有把握。

Tom Wadewitz, JPMorgan.

Tom Wadewitz，摩根大通。

There has been a surprising lack of questions on export coal today, so I wouldn't want to guys to miss out on the export coal comments. You gave some thoughts on 2014 that export coal would be a source of a little bit of pressure. I'm wondering is that on the thermal side and is there some impact from multi-year contracts expiring where maybe some coal that wouldn't be economic in the current environment's being taken by European utilities? How do you look at the multi-year contract impact and where we do you think thermal exports might shape out for how they may look in 2014? Thanks.

今天對出口煤的提問少得令人意外，所以我不想讓各位錯過談出口煤的機會。你們對 2014 年提到一些看法，認為出口煤會帶來一些壓力來源。我想問這是指動力煤（thermal）那一端嗎？是否有一些影響來自多年期合約到期——也就是說，可能有些在目前環境下不具經濟性的煤，過去仍被歐洲公用事業在合約下承接？你們如何看多年期合約的影響？你們認為 2014 年動力煤出口可能會呈現什麼樣的走勢？謝謝。

Tom, the multi-year contract are pretty much phased out and that was mainly driven by the forward curve of the API 2 because it continued, as you're aware, to drop precipitously over the last year. The ability to sell forward for most of our producers and our coal traders just simply hasn't been there. We expect some pretty strong headwinds until that API 2 thermal index picks up in Europe for 2014. It's going to be a tough year in that thermal environment for 2014. Does that answer your question?

Tom，多年期合約基本上已經逐步退出，這主要是因為 API 2 的遠期曲線在過去一年如你所知持續大幅下跌。對我們大多數生產商與煤炭貿易商而言，能夠做遠期銷售的條件就是不具備。我們預期在 2014 年之前，直到歐洲的 API 2 動力煤指數回升，仍會面臨相當強的逆風。2014 年在那樣的動力煤環境下會是艱難的一年。這有回答你的問題嗎？

I'm just trying to figure out if all of the thermal coal from central [App] that's being exported is uneconomic or if the 4 million ton level in third quarter of export thermal coal, if that's the level that's still going to be economic at current level prices or where you go between that?

我只是想弄清楚，從中部[App]出口的所有動力煤是否都已經沒有經濟性，還是說第三季出口動力煤約400萬噸的水準，在目前的價格水準下仍然具有經濟性？你們在這兩者之間如何判斷？

Somewhere in that area where you're describing now is about the low end of the economic level.

你現在描述的那個區間，大概就是具有經濟性的低端水準。

The level in third quarter is the low-end or somewhere between 4 million and zero?

第三季的水準就是低端，還是介於400萬噸到零之間的某個位置？

The level in the third quarter is the low-end of the economic level.

第三季的水準就是具有經濟性的低端。

Right. If I can get a second topic quick, Oscar, you are obviously, I'll give you a great job on productivity. The performance is strong there. Can you give a quick insight on your trained length in Merchandise and Intermodal? You said there's productivity there and what that looks like relative to what capacity would be?

了解。如果我可以快速問第二個主題，Oscar，你在生產力方面顯然做得很好。那邊的表現很強。你能否簡要說明一下你們在一般貨運（Merchandise）與聯運（Intermodal）的列車長度（train length）？你提到那裡有生產力提升，以及相對於運能看起來是什麼樣子？

Yes, we got, as you can imagine, and likely plenty of capacity, probably 20% to 25% in some of those markets. Again, we're waiting for the volume to come back to fill those. Train size is actually increasing a little bit, but be careful with that. Because higher capacity cars, double stacking, all of that's affecting those lengths, so mix does affect that a little bit. But overall, on both Merchandise and in fact, across our system, all train lengths have improved quarter-over-quarter.

是的，如你所想，我們在其中一些市場可能有相當充裕的運能，大概多出20%到25%。同樣地，我們在等運量回來把這些運能填滿。列車編組規模其實有小幅增加，但要小心解讀。因為更高容量的車輛、雙層堆疊（double stacking）等因素都會影響列車長度，所以貨種組合（mix）也會對此有些影響。但整體而言，不論是一般貨運，甚至放眼我們整個系統，所有列車長度都較上季改善。

Okay, great. Thanks for the time.

好的，很棒。謝謝你撥冗。

Bill Greene, Morgan Stanley.

Bill Greene，摩根士丹利。

In the press release and even the slides, you don't reference, as much as you have in the past, competitive losses. I'm curious if that is a reflection of lapping some of those losses on or does it feel like the dynamics in the market are improving from a competitive standpoint?

在新聞稿甚至投影片中，你們不像過去那樣提到競爭性流失（competitive losses）。我想知道，這是否反映你們已經把先前那些流失的比較基期（lapping）走完了，或者從競爭角度看，市場動態是否正在改善？

Bill, this is Clarence. I think the main reason is we've lapped most of the ones that we've already had in there earlier. The automotive loss that you saw in there and we had the port ship which really wasn't a was in a competitive loss, business just shifted ports. We have a lot of puts and takes here all the time. We lose some business, we gain some business. That's what you're saying a reflection of.

Bill，我是Clarence。我認為主要原因是，我們先前已經發生的那些大多都已經跨過比較基期了。你看到的汽車業務流失，以及我們的港口船舶（port ship）其實並不算競爭性流失，只是業務轉換了港口。我們這裡一直都有此消彼長。我們會失去一些業務，也會獲得一些業務。你看到的就是這種情況的反映。

Okay, there's not any real change in the competitive dynamic from your perspective?

好的，所以從你們的角度看，競爭態勢並沒有真正的變化？

Right.

對。

Okay. Secondly, Clarence, when you look at the growth rate you've just delivered on domestic Intermodal, how much of that would you attribute to these new hours of service rules? Could folks even move their business yet to rail or does that take a little bit longer?

好的。第二個問題，Clarence，當你看你們剛交出的國內聯運成長率，有多少可以歸因於新的工時服務規則（hours of service rules）？客戶是否已經能把業務轉到鐵路，還是需要更長時間？

Bill, I've got to tell you, I think what I've seen and what our Intermodal people have seen is that the hours of service law has really had negligible impact on the trucking industry. What it has, in effect, done is put more regulation and has made it more expensive and more difficult for the truckers to do business with, which is another dynamic that is making Intermodal a better product for the customer to use. I would attribute more of our growth success to the fact that we put a lot of emphasis on organic growth and we had a specific program launch and put a specific sales force behind the program that we call highway-to-rail conversions. We've been very successful in that program this year in going out to the beneficial cargo owners, along with our channel of sales partners and introducing to people who were not traditional users of the Intermodal product or were fairly light users of the Intermodal product what Intermodal is, what its capabilities are. With the service product that our operating team is delivering for us, those combinations together have proved to be very successful for us.

Bill，我得說，我看到的以及我們聯運團隊看到的是，工時服務法規對卡車運輸業的影響其實微乎其微。它實際上帶來的是更多監管，讓卡車業者的營運成本更高、做生意更困難；這也是另一個讓聯運對客戶而言成為更好產品的動態。我會把我們成長成功更多歸因於：我們非常重視內生成長（organic growth），並且推出了一個明確的計畫，配置了專門的銷售團隊在其後推動，我們稱之為「公路轉鐵路」（highway-to-rail conversions）。今年我們在這個計畫上非常成功，走訪實際貨主（beneficial cargo owners），並結合我們的銷售合作夥伴通路，向那些不是聯運傳統使用者、或只是輕度使用聯運產品的人介紹聯運是什麼、它的能力是什麼。再加上我們營運團隊為我們提供的服務產品，這些組合在一起，對我們而言已被證明非常成功。

Yes, it's very impressive. Would you favor growth or price going forward on Intermodal? Because 9% is a lot of growth.

是的，確實非常令人印象深刻。展望未來，在聯運方面你會更偏好成長還是價格？因為9%的成長幅度很大。

I would favor both.

我會兩者都偏好。

Thanks for the time, guys.

謝謝你們撥冗。

Jeff Kauffman, Buckingham Research.

Jeff Kauffman，Buckingham Research。

Clarence, I want to ask a little bit more on coal and export pricing. If I just do the math on the revenue ton miles and tons it looks like length of haul in coal was probably up about 3%. All things being equal, you'd think revenue per car would end up being up something similar, but it was down almost 2%. You've got a 500 basis point differential. How much of that can be explained by mix versus say pricing of international shipments versus what's going on domestically?

Clarence，我想再多問一點煤炭與出口定價。如果我用收入噸英里（revenue ton miles）和噸數做一下計算，看起來煤炭的運距（length of haul）可能上升了約3%。在其他條件相同下，你會以為每車收入（revenue per car）也會上升類似幅度，但它卻下降了將近2%。這中間有500個基點的差異。其中有多少可以用貨種組合（mix）解釋？又有多少是例如國際運輸的定價相對於國內發生了什麼？

I would say there were two major factors that occurred there -- one was what we had described both last quarter and this quarter and that's the fixed variable component that is in the domestic part of our coal and a principal driver, then, would be the rates in the export coal.

我會說主要有兩個因素——其一是我們在上季與本季都提到的，也就是我們國內煤炭業務中固定/變動（fixed variable）組成的因素；其次，主要驅動因素會是出口煤的運價（rates）。

Okay, but wasn't the domestic fixed variable component net positive to yields?

好的，但國內的固定/變動組成不是對單位收益（yields）淨貢獻為正嗎？

No, no, it was not.

不，不是。

No, okay. Thank you very much.

了解。非常感謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Clarence, just one more on export coal, can you give us a sense, how much business, at this point, is on contract or contracted for 2014? Do you think that's a meaningful number or at this point in the year, do you just not have a lot on contract for the next year?

Clarence，再問一個關於出口煤：你能否讓我們了解一下，到目前為止，有多少業務是已簽約、或已為2014年簽約的？你認為這個數字是否具代表性？還是說以一年中的這個時間點，你們其實還沒有太多下一年的合約？

It's not a meaningful number and at this point, we don't have much under contract for next year. With everybody playing coy right now, it's going to be difficult for us to know that number, really, right up until the end of the year.

這不是一個具代表性的數字，而且目前我們明年在合約下的量不多。在大家現在都在觀望、態度保留的情況下，我們很難知道那個數字，可能要到年底前後才會比較清楚。

It's tough, at this point, to give any kind of rough forecast for millions of tons of coal for export next year?

所以此刻要對明年出口煤的百萬噸數做任何粗略預測都很困難？

It is.

是的。

Okay. Second question, the new breakout of Merchandise and Intermodal pricing, that's very helpful. Can you just give us some historical context here? That 3% and 3.3% that you got last year, how would that compare with four or five years ago? Are we seeing better pricing there now because the service is getting better or is that the pricing is getting a little bit tougher there just because it's later in the pricing story and you had some legacy in Merchandise and Intermodal as well? Just some historical context on that 3% would be helpful.

好的。第二個問題，你們新拆分的一般貨運與聯運定價資訊非常有幫助。你能否提供一些歷史背景？去年你們拿到的3%與3.3%，和四、五年前相比如何？我們現在看到那邊的定價更好，是因為服務變好了？還是說定價變得更具挑戰，因為定價故事已進入後段，而且一般貨運與聯運也有一些歷史遺留（legacy）的因素？對這個3%提供一些歷史脈絡會很有幫助。

Scott, I'll take this one just having looked at that not that long ago. Clearly, as I said earlier in my remarks, that pricing going forward is not going to be as big of a portion as it's been over the last decade or so, because of legacy pricing. Merchandise, just as some of the other margin, is probably higher back then. But as the run rate that we've seen here this year and what we saw last year has really impacted predominantly by what Clarence outlined before, the change in the escalators in our contract, as they've come down, as rail inflation's come down. But I would say the last few years has been pretty stable in those markets.

Scott，我來回答這題，因為我不久前才看過這個。很明顯，如我先前在談話中提到的，未來定價對整體的貢獻不會像過去十年左右那麼大，因為有歷史遺留定價（legacy pricing）的因素。一般貨運的利潤率（margin）就像其他一些業務一樣，當時可能更高。但我們今年看到的運行水準（run rate）以及去年看到的情況，主要受到Clarence先前提到的因素影響：也就是我們合約中的自動調整條款（escalators）變動——隨著它們下調、以及鐵路通膨（rail inflation）下降。不過我會說，過去幾年在那些市場一直相當穩定。

Okay, that's helpful. Thanks, guys.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝各位。

Jason Seidl, Cowen and Company.

Jason Seidl，Cowen and Company。

I'll talk about the Intermodal side. When you look at the trucking market and you look at your success in the pricing market, is there any concern that you might drive some business back to the highway? Because, clearly, what we've seen on the truckload side is their lack of ability to raise pricing.

我來談談聯運（Intermodal）這一塊。當你看卡車運輸市場，以及你們在定價市場上的成功時，是否擔心你們可能會把一些業務推回公路運輸？因為很明顯，我們在整車運輸（truckload）那邊看到的是，他們缺乏提高價格的能力。

We don't have that concern right now, no, it hasn't come up. In fact, it's just the opposite. Number one, we expect to continue this growth. I think it's important to point out to you that -- and I hope you've picked up in our prepared remarks that we'll be cycling Hurricane Sandy in the fourth quarter, so we expect to continue to see good growth throughout this year.

我們目前沒有這方面的擔憂，沒有，這個問題還沒出現。事實上，情況正好相反。第一，我們預期會持續這樣的成長。我想重要的是向你指出——我也希望你已從我們事先準備的發言中注意到——我們在第四季會進入與颶風桑迪（Hurricane Sandy）相關的比較基期循環，因此我們預期今年全年都會持續看到不錯的成長。

Okay, very good. Let me switch a little bit to the crude markets. If we look at everything combined, we've seen, obviously, frac sand looking a little bit better as operators looking to pump more sand per lateral feet. If you add up your crude business, your fracs, your tubulars, your pipe, what percent of the overall business are those things combined now?

好的，非常好。我稍微轉到原油市場。如果把所有項目合在一起看，我們顯然看到壓裂砂（frac sand）看起來好一些，因為營運商希望每英尺水平段（lateral feet）灌入更多砂。如果把你們的原油業務、壓裂、油管（tubulars）、管材（pipe）加總起來，這些合計現在占整體業務的百分之多少？

I don't have that number in front of me, but it is a relatively small number compared to our overall business.

我手邊沒有那個數字，但相較於我們整體業務而言，這是相對較小的比例。

Okay. If you guys can get that, you can shoot it to me offline. I appreciate the time, as always, guys.

好的。如果你們能拿到那個數字，可以私下再傳給我。一如既往，感謝各位撥冗。

Ben Hartford, Robert W. Baird.

Ben Hartford，Robert W. Baird。

Clarence or Oscar, could you provide -- I'm looking for some context in terms of what the differential between a like for like domestic Intermodal move is relative to truck? I assume it's still at a discount, but I also understand that the difference has narrowed from that 10% to 15% discount that we had experienced over the past several years. Could you provide what it would be today, the discount domestic Intermodal relative to truck?

Clarence 或 Oscar，你們能否提供——我想了解一下，同樣條件下的國內聯運（Intermodal）運輸，相對於卡車的價差大概是多少？我假設仍然是有折扣，但我也理解，這個差距已經從過去幾年我們看到的 10% 到 15% 折扣縮小了。你們能否提供目前國內聯運相對於卡車的折扣是多少？

It depends on whether you're dealing in the transcon or in eastern move, but typically, in an eastern move, you might see that number somewhere between 5% and 10%, transcon, you may see that number around 10%.

這取決於你談的是跨洲線（transcon）還是東部路線，但通常在東部路線，你可能會看到大約 5% 到 10%；跨洲線你可能會看到大約 10%。

Okay, that's helpful. How should we think about it over the next three to five years? You guys want to continue to grow volume and raise rates and raise rates above the cost of rail inflation, obviously with some of the pressures that we're seeing in the truck market. Should we expect that differential to continue to narrow or are there opportunities, from a productivity standpoint, that allow you to keep a 5% to 10% discount and continue to take share at a healthy clip? How should we think about that balance over the next period of years?

好的，這很有幫助。未來三到五年我們應該怎麼看？你們希望持續成長運量並提高費率，而且費率要高於鐵路成本通膨，顯然在卡車市場我們也看到一些壓力。我們是否應該預期這個價差會繼續縮小？或者從生產力的角度，是否有機會讓你們維持 5% 到 10% 的折扣，同時仍以健康的速度持續搶占市占？未來幾年我們該如何看待這個平衡？

I would think two ways -- number one, a truck is always going to be a more direct form of transportation, a higher premium than is going to be an intermodal move, simply by the sheer nature and design that the vehicle itself and what you're doing. What we're trying to do is stay focused on the bottom line contribution and the profitability of that move. We'll probably, for the foreseeable future, carry a discount against the truck itself. Our focus is going to be on improving the contribution to the bottom line of that intermodal move.

我會從兩個面向來看——第一，卡車永遠會是更直接的運輸方式，相較於聯運會有更高的溢價，這純粹是因為車輛本身的特性與設計，以及你所進行的作業方式。我們要做的是專注在該趟運輸對最終獲利（bottom line）的貢獻與其獲利能力。在可預見的未來，我們可能仍會相對卡車維持折扣。我們的重點會放在提升那一趟聯運對最終獲利的貢獻。

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

David Vernon，Bernstein。

Oscar, quick question for you -- on the GTMs per crew start metric that you provided, what percentage of the labor costs would that productivity metric apply to?

Oscar，想快速問你一個問題——就你提供的每次班組開工（crew start）的 GTMs 指標而言，這個生產力指標適用於多少比例的人力成本？

What percent -- I'm sorry --

多少比例——抱歉——

The GTMs per road crew start, obviously, you guys are doing a lot to drive more efficiency on the road crews. What I'm trying to get a sense for is what weighting that would have on the total labor cost in the P&L?

每次路線班組開工（road crew start）的 GTMs，顯然你們做了很多來提升路線班組的效率。我想了解的是，這在損益表（P&L）的總人力成本中大概占多大的權重？

I don't have that number in front of me. Labor's our biggest line item and of course, operations is the biggest. Probably, I would say one-third, maybe.

我手邊沒有那個數字。人力是我們最大的費用項目，當然營運又是最大的一塊。大概我會說三分之一，也許吧。

Great, thank you. Fredrik, with the commentary on pricing maybe getting a little bit weaker than it has been in the last decade, does that start to change the way you guys think about CapEx a little bit going forward?

很好，謝謝。Fredrik，關於你提到定價可能比過去十年稍微弱一些，這會不會開始改變你們對未來資本支出（CapEx）的看法？

No, I think that, once again, the focus from our perspective has always been the bottom line. We're going to continue to push inflation plus pricing. Nothing has really changed there, but we do think that we're seeing now is an opportunity to grow volume in a more meaningful way than we have over the last decade. As we grow volume, there's going to continue to be a need to reinvest in our business and expand facilities. The guidance that we have out there, about 16% to 17% of core capital is potential revenue, we still think that's the right place to be.

不會。我認為，再次強調，從我們的角度來看，重點一直都是最終獲利。我們會持續推動「通膨加成」的定價。這方面其實沒有改變，但我們確實認為，我們現在看到的是一個能以更有意義的方式成長運量的機會，這是過去十年較少見的。隨著我們成長運量，仍會持續需要再投資於我們的業務並擴建設施。我們目前給出的指引——核心資本約占潛在營收的 16% 到 17%——我們仍認為這是合適的水準。

Okay. Am I hearing you correctly in that there's a little bit less pricing than we saw maybe over the last decade?

好的。我理解得對嗎：定價比起過去十年我們看到的，稍微少了一些？

No, nothing has really changed. What we're saying is we had a lot of legacy pricing that we have opportunities to reprice early on in this rail renaissance cycle. Over the last few years, there hasn't has been a lot of legacy pricing opportunities anymore, so we continue to push inflation plus pricing, just not at the same degree as we've seen before. Nothing there is changing going forward from what we've seen the last few years.

不，並沒有真正改變。我們的意思是，在這一輪鐵路復興（rail renaissance）週期的早期，我們有很多歷史合約定價（legacy pricing）可以重新定價的機會。過去幾年，這類歷史定價的重新定價機會已經不多了，所以我們仍持續推動「通膨加成」定價，只是幅度沒有以前那麼大。就我們過去幾年所看到的情況而言，未來也不會有任何改變。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，很好。謝謝。

John Larkin, Stifel Nicolaus.

John Larkin，Stifel Nicolaus。

I wanted to dig a little bit into the terrific growth you've had on domestic Intermodal. Could you break that down between local east and transcon? Is the local east really driving that or are you still seeing growth with connecting traffic in the west?

我想更深入了解你們在國內聯運（Intermodal）上取得的出色成長。你能否把它拆分為東部本地（local east）與跨洲線（transcon）？是東部本地真的在帶動，還是你們在西部的轉接運量（connecting traffic）也仍在成長？

John, I don't have that number in front of me and I'm doing this strictly from memory. I'll be directionally correct, I'm doing it from memory of the last review I had with our Intermodal people, but the growth will tend to have been more in the east than in the transcon.

John，我手邊沒有那個數字，而且我完全是憑記憶回答。我會在方向上講對；根據我上次和我們聯運團隊檢討時的記憶，成長傾向於更多來自東部，而不是跨洲線。

And your sense is that growth has many years ahead of it in terms of capturing share from the highway, even though the price discount is only 5% to 10%? I guess that 5% to 10% discount does not include the differential in fuel surcharge, is that right?

你的看法是，即使價格折扣只有 5% 到 10%，在從公路運輸搶市占方面，這樣的成長仍有很多年的空間？我想確認一下：這個 5% 到 10% 的折扣不包含燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）的差異，對嗎？

That's right. We just had a study updated this past quarter that we had done last year, as a matter of fact. We've got 9 million addressable loads in the east, over 550 miles that we still haven't touched as an industry that could be possibly converted to Intermodal.

沒錯。我們在上一季剛更新了一份研究，事實上去年也做過。在東部，超過 550 英里的可服務貨載（addressable loads）有 900 萬筆，從產業角度來看我們仍未觸及，這些可能可以轉換為聯運。

All right, that's very helpful. That's all I had.

好，這非常有幫助。我就這些。

Matthew Troy, Susquehanna International.

Matthew Troy，Susquehanna International。

Michael, question for you, if I could. It seems if I look at the long-term spectrum, last 10 years next 10 years, the railroads have subtly shifted from, let's call it, victor to victim in coal, yet you've accomplished a lot in terms of US infrastructure. I'm just wondering, the dialogue in Washington for the last several years has been focused around [three] regulatory risk. I'd love to hear your thoughts about one, your dialogue in Washington now about what the railroads provide and how they seem to be somewhat collateral damage of the current administration's war on coal, but more importantly, how you and the other railroads may be posturing in Washington to demonstrate what you do provide, both from an infrastructure perspective and a reinvestment perspective on a long-term basis.

Michael，我想請教你一個問題。看長期趨勢，過去10年到未來10年，鐵路在煤炭方面似乎已悄然從（姑且稱之）勝利者轉為受害者，但你們在美國基礎建設方面又確實做了很多。我想問的是，華盛頓這幾年的討論似乎一直聚焦在（[三]項）監管風險上。我很想聽聽你的看法：第一，你們目前在華盛頓的溝通，如何談鐵路所提供的價值，以及在現任政府「反煤」政策下，鐵路似乎成了某種附帶損害；但更重要的是，你和其他鐵路公司在華盛頓可能如何布局，以長期角度從基礎建設與再投資的面向，展現你們所提供的貢獻。

When we visit with the legislators, Matthew, the one thing that they really do appreciate is the private capital we bring to the infrastructure of the United States. Clearly, we have huge challenges with our infrastructure and quite frankly, all the rails have been investing 16% to 17%. They realize that's valuable help to relieve highway congestion and some of the burden there. They're very supportive of the fact that we are making more and I think the fact that we are making more but investing more is an equation that, for them, makes really good plans. On the issue of coal, clearly, we knew that there was going to be some issues come 2015; natural gas obviously accelerated that with the low prices.

Matthew，我們拜會立法者時，他們真正很欣賞的一點，是我們為美國基礎建設帶來的民間資本。很明顯，我們的基礎建設面臨巨大挑戰；坦白說，所有鐵路公司一直以16%到17%的比例在投資。他們明白這對於緩解公路壅塞、減輕相關負擔，是很有價值的助力。他們也非常支持我們賺得更多；而我認為，我們賺得更多、也投資更多，這樣的等式對他們而言，是非常合理的規劃。至於煤炭議題，很明顯，我們早就知道2015年會出現一些問題；而天然氣的低價顯然加速了這個趨勢。

The one thing that I read in the Journal today, though, that you might find of interest is the Supreme Court has agreed to take up the issue of EPA expanding the SO2 from mobile sources to stationary sources, which I think could be a very interesting twist because, quite frankly, the law does not allow them too do the stationary sources in the manner that they are doing so. We're really pleased that the Supreme Court is taken that up. But clearly, this administration doesn't favor the use of coal. I think personally that we're going to find it's going to be part of the mix longer-term. If you look at the nuclear plants that are being built, they're already being delayed to late in this decade, maybe even next decade. I think, over time, and this is my own personal view, we'll find coal will once again have a role, but it is going to be a tough few years here with this administration's war on coal.

不過我今天在《華爾街日報》讀到一件你可能會感興趣的事：最高法院已同意受理EPA將SO2（二氧化硫）規範從移動污染源擴大到固定污染源的議題；我認為這可能會是個很有意思的轉折，因為坦白說，法律並不允許他們以目前的方式去規範固定污染源。我們很高興最高法院願意受理。但很明顯，這個政府並不偏好使用煤炭。我個人認為，長期來看煤炭仍會是能源組合的一部分。如果你看正在興建的核電廠，它們已經延後到本十年末，甚至可能到下個十年。我想隨著時間推移——這是我個人的看法——我們會發現煤炭會再次扮演一定角色，但在這個政府的「反煤」政策下，接下來幾年會很艱難。

I appreciate that. My follow-up would be, them, to either you or Clarence. You obviously have the 2015 regulations. To what extent have you modeled out or can you help us just understand versus your current haulage base or tonnage base, what those regulations may mean in terms of some of the utility closures and what that might mean from a tonnage or carload perspective when they go into effect? Thank you.

謝謝你的說明。我的追問是，想請教你或Clarence。你們顯然面臨2015年的法規。你們在多大程度上已做過模型推估，或能否協助我們理解：相較於你們目前的運量基礎或噸數基礎，這些法規在生效後，可能因部分公用事業電廠關閉而帶來什麼影響？就噸數或車皮量（carload）的角度會是如何？謝謝。

Matthew, we've looked at what is in place up now to 2015 and it probably won't be much impact to us because the plants that will be impacted have already been impacted, either by shutting down or by the impact of natural gas itself. The proposed EPA requirements that may or may not go into effect for the existing power plants, we haven't really taken a look at that, because as you're probably aware better than I am, that'll be litigated you for any impact of that occurs.

Matthew，我們看過目前既有、直到2015年的規定，對我們的影響可能不大，因為會受影響的電廠其實早就已經受到影響了——不是已經關閉，就是已經受到天然氣本身影響。至於EPA針對既有電廠提出、可能會也可能不會生效的要求，我們還沒有真正去評估，因為如你可能比我更清楚的，這些規定會進入訴訟程序，任何影響都要等之後才會發生。

I don't think they're even going to propose rules on existing plants until the middle of '14 and putting in place the middle of '15; so certainly, far out and not even known whether they're planning on that.

我認為他們甚至要到2014年年中才會提出針對既有電廠的規則，並在2015年年中實施；所以時間還很遠，而且也不確定他們是否真的會這麼做。

I look forward to talking about that in 2017. Thank you.

我期待在2017年再來談這件事。謝謝。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

Walter Spracklin，RBC Capital Markets。

I wanted to cover off a little bit on the guidance, perhaps for you, Fredrik. When I look at what your 10% to 15% encompasses, it's off the $1.79 as a starting point or it could be off 2013, you can clarify. But essentially, what I've seen in 2013 is a fair degree of SunRail gains, tax benefits, liquidated damages, which you add up, it probably equates to anywhere from $0.06 to $0.09 lift on your earnings this year. I'm curious just to see how you make up for that next year? In other words, what I was hearing is that we're not going to see anywhere near the same benefit from those more lumpy or one-time items.

我想稍微談一下你們的指引，可能是問你，Fredrik。我看你們所說的10%到15%涵蓋範圍，是以1.79美元作為起點，還是以2013年為基準，你可以澄清一下。但基本上，我在2013年看到相當程度的SunRail收益、稅務利益、違約金（liquidated damages）；把這些加總起來，大概相當於今年每股盈餘增加0.06到0.09美元。我好奇的是，明年你們要如何補回這一塊？換句話說，我聽到的是，我們不會再看到那些較為零散或一次性的項目帶來接近同等的利益。

You're indicating you'll be able to make up for that and still achieve a two-year CAGR of 10% to 15%. Without ramping significantly other items to get to that, I guess where I'm going is to offset that $0.06 to $0.09, it had to ramp significantly your pricing, your volume, your expense savings to get to a 10% to 15% CAGR. Perhaps you can walk or give me a little bit of sense where perhaps my math is wrong on my starting points here or there's something I might be missing on our assumptions going forward.

你們表示仍能補回並達成兩年期10%到15%的CAGR（年複合成長率）。如果不大幅拉升其他項目來達成，我的意思是：要抵銷那0.06到0.09美元，就必須在定價、運量、費用節省上顯著加速，才能達到10%到15%的CAGR。也許你可以帶我走一遍，或讓我稍微理解一下：是不是我在起算點的計算有誤，或是我對未來假設可能漏了什麼。

First of all, it is off the 2013 base and not the 2012 base. It is a two-year CAGR and you're absolutely right that because of the fact that we have received some additional one-time benefit, that perhaps we did not anticipate originally, we have made the two-year CAGR a little bit more difficult as the base for this year has come up. But that is incorporated into our statement around the fact that it has become more challenging. Once again, as we look to the next two years, it is a two-year CAGR. It is going to mean that, at some point, in order to get there, coal is going to have to come back. As we have outlined, we think that's going to be more in 2015 versus 2014. Overall, I would say that those two assumptions, the economy is going to be growing, albeit at a slower pace, is still something we feel good about, but the coal assumption obviously is still challenging.

首先，是以2013年的基礎，而不是以2012年的基礎。這是一個兩年期的CAGR；你完全正確，因為我們收到了一些額外的一次性利益，可能是我們原先沒有預期到的，所以今年的基礎墊高後，讓兩年期CAGR的達成變得更困難。但這也已反映在我們的說法中：它確實變得更具挑戰。再說一次，當我們看未來兩年，這是一個兩年期CAGR。這意味著，為了達成目標，在某個時間點煤炭必須回升。如我們所說，我們認為這更可能發生在2015年而不是2014年。整體而言，我會說這兩個假設——經濟會成長，雖然速度較慢——我們仍然有信心；但煤炭的假設顯然仍具挑戰。

So to paraphrase, you need coal to come back to hit those targets in 2015?

所以換句話說，你們需要煤炭在2015年回升，才能達成那些目標？

I think right now, we've said it, in '15, we need some help on coal again. It doesn't mean that we need it all the way back because in any plan, you also have opportunities to do better in other areas of your business, including pricing, productivity, the economy comes back a little bit faster than we had expected. But clearly, some help on the coal side from where we're currently seeing it is probably something that is required.

我想就目前而言，我們已經說過：在2015年，我們需要煤炭再給一些助力。這不代表需要完全回到過去的水準，因為在任何計畫中，你也有機會在業務的其他領域做得更好，包括定價、效率提升，或是經濟復甦比我們預期更快一些。但很明顯，從我們目前看到的狀況來看，煤炭端需要一些助力，可能是必要的。

Okay, fair enough. Second question here is on pricing -- when I consider your inflation plus objective and perhaps as you (inaudible), we've seen that core 3% ex-coal coming in, albeit ticking down, as you mentioned, due to increased flexibility or legacy contracts or what have you. When I look at it next year, have we lapped enough of the coal contracts, which are bringing overall core pricing down to the 1% level, such that we can go back to some normal run rate of inflation plus for next year or do we still see some negative impact from lapping perhaps early year coal contracts that is still going to run us below that inflation plus pricing overall for next year?

好，合理。第二個問題是關於定價——當我考量你們「通膨以上」的目標，以及也許如你（聽不清）所說，我們看到核心（不含煤炭）3%的價格表現，雖然如你提到的因彈性提高、歷史合約或其他因素而略有下滑。我看明年時，我們是否已經跨過足夠多的煤炭合約（這些合約把整體核心定價拉低到約1%的水準），使得明年可以回到較正常的「通膨以上」運行水準？還是說，因為年初煤炭合約到期的比較效應，明年整體定價仍會受到一些負面影響，導致仍低於「通膨以上」的定價水準？

I think that the additional rate adjustments that we made here in the third quarter to keep these producers in business and us maximizing the value of our export portfolio is going to be with us into 2014 and well into 2014. Obviously, we also will see what the fixed variable contracts will do. Also if, for example, the domestic business picks up a little bit, you will see some impact on that all-in pricing number, as well, that will be negative. That's what we've broken out here. The Merchandise and Intermodal business, because I think that's the truest indication of what same-store pricing will do and that's what we're focused on right now to keep that above rail inflation.

我認為，我們在第三季所做的額外費率調整，為了讓這些生產商能夠持續營運，同時讓我們將出口組合的價值最大化，這些調整將延續到2014年，並且會持續到2014年相當長一段時間。顯然，我們也會觀察固定／變動合約會帶來什麼影響。另外，舉例來說，如果國內業務稍微回升，你也會看到對那個全包定價數字的影響，而且會是負面的。這就是我們在這裡拆分出來的部分。商品與聯運業務，因為我認為那最能真實反映同店定價會如何變化，而這也是我們目前專注的重點：讓它維持在鐵路通膨之上。

Okay, got it. That's all my questions. Thanks very much, guys.

好的，了解。我的問題就這些。非常感謝，各位。

Justin Long, Stephens.

Justin Long，Stephens。

You referenced some of the excess capacity you have in the network earlier and I would imagine as you continue to rebuild density in the non-coal businesses, these volumes are coming back at pretty favorable incremental margins. I also know that's getting matched by what's happening in the coal business. I was wondering if you could give any insight into what non-coal incremental margins look like today and also how we should think about that metric as we go forward?

你先前提到你們網路中有一些多餘產能，我想像隨著你們持續在非煤業務上重建密度，這些運量回來時會帶來相當有利的增量利潤率。我也知道這同時會被煤炭業務的情況所抵銷。我想請教你能否提供一些看法：目前非煤業務的增量利潤率大概是什麼樣子，以及我們未來應該如何看待這個指標？

You're very far away, repeat the end of the question again.

你離得很遠，請把問題最後一段再重複一次。

It was on incremental margins in the non-coal business and what you're seeing today and how you're thinking about that metric as we go forward.

是關於非煤業務的增量利潤率：你們目前看到的情況，以及你們未來如何看待這個指標。

We've said this repeatedly -- obviously, incremental margin, as you add volume onto existing train network, is very attractive. As we continue to grow that business, we grew it 5% here, the non-coal business in the third quarter, you will have some train starts, so it's not like [function] change, you'll have some train start increases, but clearly, the incremental margin is very attractive. But we do look at everything from a long-term economic perspective. That's how we measure profitability and that's how we look at things over a longer period of time. But one of the reasons why we've been able to hold up as well as we have with the significant change in our coal business is because of the fact that of the incremental margin in the Intermodal network and the Merchandise business is very attractive.

我們已經反覆說過——顯然，當你在既有列車網路上增加運量時，增量利潤率非常吸引人。隨著我們持續成長該業務，我們第三季非煤業務成長了5%，你會有一些列車開行，所以不會是那種[function]式的變化；你會看到列車開行次數有所增加，但很明顯，增量利潤率非常有吸引力。不過，我們確實會從長期經濟角度來看所有事情。這是我們衡量獲利能力的方式，也是我們用更長時間尺度來看待事情的方法。但我們之所以能在煤炭業務出現重大變化的情況下仍維持得相當不錯，其中一個原因就是：聯運網路與商品業務的增量利潤率非常吸引人。

Thank you. As a follow-up, as I think about CapEx for the next year or so, I was wondering if you could comment on your railcar equipment needs and any areas that might be pressing in terms of either replacement or growth.

謝謝。追問一下，當我思考未來一年左右的資本支出（CapEx）時，我想請你評論一下你們的鐵路車輛設備需求，以及在汰換或成長方面是否有任何較為迫切的領域。

I think we are comfortable with, as I said earlier, the 16% to 17% of revenue. We have long-term plans that we're executing against. We are in a good place in terms of our railcars reinvestment cycle. Locomotives, we will bring some additional locomotives on next year, probably not so many in 2015, but we do also have some assets stored. We feel we're in a good place with equipment, even if the economy comes back a little bit faster than we might currently be expecting.

我認為我們對我先前提到的、營收的16%到17%這個水準感到放心。我們正在執行既定的長期計畫。就貨車而言，我們的再投資週期處於良好位置。機車方面，我們明年會再增加一些機車，2015年可能不會那麼多，但我們也有一些資產是封存（stored）的。我們認為在設備方面處於良好狀態，即使經濟復甦速度比我們目前預期的稍快一些也沒問題。

Okay, great. I appreciate the time.

好的，很棒。感謝你撥冗。

Donald Broughton, Avondale Partners.

Donald Broughton，Avondale Partners。

I was looking at a difference in complexion of your operating statistics in that we continue to see train speeds improve, dwell times come down. Obviously, all good performance metrics for which you're to be applauded, but there's some disparities when I look at the different terminals. Some of the terminals have been rather static in their dwell times and others have had remarkable improvements; an example being Louisville. Is that due to a change and did you get a different yard master? Did you change technology or is there a change in mix? What's driving the disparities and the change in dwell time between the different terminals?

我在看你們營運統計數據的變化時注意到一些不同的面貌：我們持續看到列車速度改善、停留時間（dwell times）下降。顯然，這些都是值得稱讚的良好績效指標，但當我看不同場站（terminals）時，會看到一些差異。有些場站的停留時間相當持平，另一些則有顯著改善；例如路易維爾（Louisville）。這是因為有變動嗎？你們換了不同的調車場主管（yard master）嗎？你們更換了技術，或是貨量組合有變化嗎？是什麼在驅動不同場站之間停留時間的差異與變化？

I think there's a degree of movement and mix. Something like, Louisville has got a lot of the auto business going through it and so as I mentioned before, we have an operational design team that's constantly looking at it. In fact, we're in the process of making some investments with another railroad, the LIRC, to actually understand the choke points we have in that area and be able to relieve them. It is purely a function of, as our train movements go from place to place, we'll always have these little choke points. How you react and recover from them is the critical area and from that particular place, in Louisville for instance, we have a very specific solution point. But thanks for noting.

我認為其中有一部分是流向與組合的變動。像路易維爾這樣的地方，有很多汽車業務會經過那裡，所以如我先前提到的，我們有一個營運設計團隊持續在檢視。事實上，我們正與另一家鐵路公司LIRC進行一些投資，以便真正了解我們在該區域的瓶頸，並能夠加以紓解。這純粹是因為當我們的列車移動從一地到另一地時，總會出現一些小瓶頸。你如何反應並從中恢復才是關鍵，而就那個特定地點而言，例如路易維爾，我們有一個非常明確的解決方案切入點。不過謝謝你的留意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Keith Schoonmaker, Morningstar.

Keith Schoonmaker，Morningstar。

A question for Oscar probably -- Oscar, the 6% gain in GTM per road crew seems like a pretty large increment. You just mentioned greater double stacking and slightly longer trains, but does this improvement stem mostly from a mix that might be richer and longer hauls or were there some other levels that you pulled to accomplish this?

可能是問Oscar的一個問題——Oscar，每個路線乘務組（road crew）的GTM成長6%看起來是相當大的增幅。你剛提到更多的雙層堆疊（double stacking）以及列車稍微更長，但這項改善主要是來自可能更有利的組合與更長的運距，還是你們還採取了其他槓桿來達成？

It's a combination, so certainly longer hauls are part of the mix. There's a lot of difficult planning and work and a lot technology that has been involved recently. We have items like trip optimizer, dynamic train planning, and a host of other areas that actually affect that. At the end of the day, the operating train plan is the one that has to be developed efficiently to get those things. It's not just about a longer haul movement.

這是多種因素的組合，所以更長的運距確實是組合的一部分。其中涉及大量艱難的規劃與工作，也包含近期導入的許多技術。我們有像是行程最佳化器（trip optimizer）、動態列車規劃（dynamic train planning），以及其他許多實際會影響該指標的領域。歸根結底，必須有效率地制定營運列車計畫，才能達成這些成果。這不只是更長運距的移動而已。

Oscar, was this a step change unique to this period or do you think this gain may be not as great an increment and but is this going to be more routine?

Oscar，這是這個期間特有的階躍式變化嗎？還是你認為未來這個增幅可能不會那麼大，但會變得更常態化？

Yes, like everything else, as the team continues to work and collaborate closely and allow the use of all these tools, it is a nice slow and gradual ramp up. We hit our mark very nicely this quarter.

是的，和其他事情一樣，隨著團隊持續工作、緊密協作並讓所有這些工具得以運用，這會是一個良好、緩慢且逐步的爬升過程。我們在本季非常漂亮地達成了目標。

Great, thank you.

很好，謝謝。

Thank you, everyone, for your attention and your interest and we'll see you again next quarter.

感謝各位的關注與興趣，我們下個季度再見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛斷電話線。