CSX Corporation (CSX) 2012 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation fourth-quarter 2012 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2012 年第四季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。在本次會議期間，所有與會者將以僅聆聽模式參與。

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話會議交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone, and again, welcome to CSX Corporation's fourth-quarter 2012 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we will review this morning along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements are available on our website at CSX.com, under the investor section. In addition following the presentation, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on the same website.

謝謝你，Pat，各位早安，再次歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2012 年第四季財報簡報。我們今天上午將檢視的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可於 CSX.com 網站的投資人專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，同一網站也將提供網路直播與播客的重播。

Here representing CSX this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer.

今天上午代表 CSX 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。

Now before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure and the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements and risks and uncertainties that could cause performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報以及公司所做的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。建議各位查閱公司揭露資訊以及簡報第 2 頁的相關內容。

In addition because of the number of analysts covering our Company as they approach 30 at this point, we would encourage everyone during the question-and-answer session to limit their questions to one primary and one follow-up question.

另外，由於目前覆蓋我們公司的分析師人數接近 30 位，我們也鼓勵各位在問答環節將問題限制為一個主要問題與一個追問。

With that, let me turn the presentation over to Michael Ward, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer. Michael?

接下來，我把簡報交給我們的董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Last evening, CSX reported financial results that further illustrate the underlying strength of our business, the ability of our team to manage and execute through very challenging conditions, and a steadfast commitment to preparing for the long-term growth we see.

謝謝你，David。各位早安。昨晚，CSX 公布的財務結果進一步展現了我們業務的內在韌性、團隊在極具挑戰的環境下管理與執行的能力，以及我們對於為所見的長期成長做好準備的堅定承諾。

Fourth-quarter earnings per share were $0.43 which included a $0.03 benefit from the sale of a nonoperating property. From a revenue perspective, significant declines in coal more than offset the increases we drove in Merchandise and Intermodal, gains that were solid in light of the overall uncertainty in the economy.

第四季每股盈餘為 0.43 美元，其中包含出售一項非營運性不動產帶來的 0.03 美元收益。就營收而言，煤炭業務的大幅下滑，超過了我們在一般貨運（Merchandise）與聯運（Intermodal）所推動的成長；在整體經濟不確定性下，這些成長仍屬穩健。

Operationally the CSX team delivered a powerful combination of safety, service, and productivity gains resulting in an operating income of $804 million and an operating ratio of 72.1% despite the lower revenues.

在營運方面，CSX 團隊在安全、服務與生產力提升上交出強勁的組合表現，儘管營收較低，仍實現 8.04 億美元的營業利益與 72.1% 的營業比率。

Turning to slide 5 for the full year, you can see that CSX continued to produce gains in its financial results. During 2012, our employees remained relentlessly focused in tough external conditions, making even more fundamental improvement in operations while responding quickly to changing market conditions. At the same time, they delivered steady gains in operating income at $3.46 billion, the operating ratio at 70.6%, and earnings per share at $1.79.

請看投影片第 5 頁的全年表現，您可以看到 CSX 持續在財務結果上取得進展。2012 年期間，我們的員工在艱困的外部環境下仍保持高度專注，在因應快速變化的市場情勢同時，於營運面做出更深層的改善。同時，我們的營業利益穩定提升至 34.6 億美元，營業比率為 70.6%，每股盈餘為 1.79 美元。

The team's many achievements in 2012 are a reflection of the initiatives we continue to drive but are even more so the outcome of a culture that remains steadfastly committed to its customers and to excellence. This focus allows us to perform well in tough conditions while positioning our business to create substantial shareholder value when the economy picks up more momentum and the Renaissance of the industry resumes.

團隊在 2012 年的諸多成就，反映了我們持續推動的各項倡議；更重要的是，這些成果來自一種文化——始終堅定致力於客戶與卓越。這樣的專注使我們能在艱困環境下仍有良好表現，同時在經濟動能回升、產業復興再度展開時，讓公司具備創造可觀股東價值的定位。

With that, I would like to turn the presentation over to Clarence to discuss our topline results in more detail. Clarence?

接下來，我想把簡報交給 Clarence，請他更詳細說明我們的營收（topline）表現。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 7, key economic indicators moderated in the fourth quarter. Looking at the left side of the chart, projected GDP and IDP rates both reflected a softer economic environment in the quarter. On the right, the Purchasing Managers Index registered a reading of 50.7 in December, reflecting a slight expansion of US manufacturing.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。請看投影片第 7 頁，第四季的主要經濟指標趨於溫和。從圖表左側來看，預估 GDP 與 IDP 成長率都反映出本季較為疲弱的經濟環境。右側方面，採購經理人指數（PMI）在 12 月為 50.7，顯示美國製造業小幅擴張。

After indicating solid expansion in the earlier part of the year, the Index clearly fell back, providing further evidence of slowing activity. At the same time, the Customer's Inventories Index registered a rating of 47, indicating respondents believe their inventories are still slightly below normal levels.

在年初呈現穩健擴張之後，該指數明顯回落，進一步證實活動正在放緩。同時，客戶庫存指數為 47，顯示受訪者認為其庫存水準仍略低於正常水準。

As confidence in the US economy improves, the rebuilding of inventories will support future growth.

隨著對美國經濟的信心改善，庫存回補將支撐未來成長。

Overall, transportation demand in the markets we serve was mixed in the fourth quarter consistent with the broader economic environment.

整體而言，我們所服務市場的運輸需求在第四季呈現分歧，與更廣泛的經濟環境一致。

Now let's take a look at the overall revenue. Total fourth-quarter revenue of nearly $2.9 billion was 2% lower compared to the prior year. Starting at the left of the chart, volume-related revenue had an unfavorable impact of $84 million in the quarter as volume growth in Automotive and Intermodal was more than offset by the decline in domestic and export coal.

現在我們來看整體營收。第四季總營收接近 29 億美元，較去年同期下降 2%。從圖表左側開始，本季與運量相關的營收帶來 8,400 萬美元的不利影響，因汽車與聯運的運量成長，已被國內與出口煤炭的下滑所抵銷且有餘。

Moving to the right, when combined, the impact of rate and mix net to zero in the quarter with the benefit of core pricing gains offset by the unfavorable mix associated with Intermodal growth and lower coal volume. Finally, fuel recovery increased $17 million in the quarter.

再往右看，運價與組合（mix）的影響合計後，本季淨影響為零：核心定價提升的效益，被聯運成長及煤炭運量下降所帶來的不利組合所抵銷。最後，本季燃油回收（fuel recovery）增加 1,700 萬美元。

Now let's turn to pricing. Core pricing on a same-store sales basis remained solid across nearly all the markets. Recall that the same-store sales are defined as shipments with the same customer, commodity, and car type and the same origin and destination. These shipments represented approximately 80% of CSX's traffic base for the quarter.

接著談定價。以同店銷售（same-store sales）基礎衡量，核心定價在幾乎所有市場仍維持穩健。提醒各位，同店銷售定義為：同一客戶、同一商品與車種，且起訖點相同的運輸貨件。這些貨件約占本季 CSX 運量基礎的 80%。

Looking at the chart, overall pricing shown as the blue bars increased 1.6% in the fourth quarter. Lower overall pricing is attributed to the more dynamic export coal market where pricing is impacted by changing global conditions.

從圖表來看，以藍色長條表示的整體定價在第四季上升 1.6%。整體定價較低主要歸因於更具動態性的出口煤炭市場，其定價會受到全球情勢變化的影響。

The gold bars, which exclude export coal, show pricing gains of 4% in the quarter exceeding rail inflation and consistent with the performance of the second and third quarters. Looking forward, delivering a strong product that creates relative value for our customers provides a solid foundation for pricing above rail inflation over the long term.

金色長條（排除出口煤炭）顯示本季定價提升 4%，高於鐵路通膨，且與第二、第三季的表現一致。展望未來，提供能為客戶創造相對價值的強勁產品，將為長期定價高於鐵路通膨奠定穩固基礎。

Given our confidence in the value of our product offering and the need for ongoing investment in the business, we will not sacrifice price for short-term volume gains.

基於我們對產品價值主張的信心，以及對業務持續投資的需要，我們不會為了短期運量成長而犧牲價格。

Let's turn to the next slide and take a closer look at the volume. Total volume declined 3% in the quarter versus the same period last year and performance across the markets we serve was mixed. Export coal volume fell 10% after growing in previous quarters. Both Intermodal and the Industrial sector continued to grow in the quarter but at lower rates than we saw in the first half.

接下來看下一張投影片，更仔細檢視運量。本季總運量較去年同期下降 3%，我們所服務的各市場表現分歧。出口煤炭運量在先前季度成長後，本季下滑 10%。聯運與工業部門在本季仍持續成長，但成長率低於上半年所見水準。

The Agricultural and Construction sectors remain challenged, with these sectors declining 4% each. Finally Domestic Coal declined 21% although the rate of decline moderated somewhat from what we saw earlier in the year.

農業與建築部門仍面臨挑戰，兩者各下降 4%。最後，國內煤炭下滑 21%，不過下滑幅度較年初所見略有趨緩。

Now let's take a closer look at some of the individual markets in more detail and let's start with coal. Coal revenue declined 18% to $747 million. Domestic volume declined 21% as natural gas prices remained low, leading to the continued displacement of coal and high stockpiles at many utilities. In addition, electoral generation declined in the Eastern United States.

現在讓我們更深入地檢視部分個別市場，先從煤炭開始。煤炭營收下滑18%至7.47億美元。由於天然氣價格維持低檔，導致煤炭持續被替代，且許多公用事業的庫存水位偏高，國內運量下滑21%。此外，美國東部地區的發電量也有所下降。

Export coal volume declined 10% as demand for metallurgical coal softened particularly in the Asian markets. Total revenue per unit was flat as core pricing gains in domestic markets offset lower export rates. Looking ahead at this point, export coal volume is expected to decline in the first quarter and our best estimate of full-year volume is about 40 million tons.

出口煤炭運量下滑10%，主因冶金煤需求轉弱，尤其是在亞洲市場。每單位總營收持平，因國內市場的核心定價提升抵銷了出口運價較低的影響。展望未來，就目前而言，預期第一季出口煤炭運量將下滑，而我們對全年運量的最佳估計約為4,000萬噸。

Furthermore, we anticipate our rates to be pressured as we work with producers to keep US coal competitive globally in an environment where underlying commodity prices for thermal and metallurgical coal are lower.

此外，在動力煤與冶金煤的基礎商品價格較低的環境下，為了與生產商合作以維持美國煤炭在全球的競爭力，我們預期運價將面臨壓力。

At the same time, domestic coal headwinds will persist but we expect them to continue to moderate throughout 2013. As a result, we anticipate domestic volume will decline in the 5% to 10% range for the full year.

同時，國內煤炭的不利因素仍將持續，但我們預期在2013年期間將逐步趨緩。因此，我們預期全年國內運量將下滑約5%至10%。

Next let's look at Merchandise. Overall, Merchandise revenue increased 4% to $1.66 billion. Automotive was the key driver in the Industrial sector, growing 10% as North American light vehicle production increased 8% in the quarter. In addition, the Chemicals market grew 6% on strength in energy-related petroleum products.

接著我們來看一般貨物（Merchandise）。整體而言，一般貨物營收成長4%至16.6億美元。工業部門中，汽車是主要成長動能，成長10%，因本季北美輕型車產量增加8%。此外，化學品市場在能源相關石油產品走強的帶動下成長6%。

In the Agricultural sector, ethanol shipments declined as a result of lower production, increased competition from imports, and lower gasoline demand. In addition, feed grain shipments to the Southeast were lower as a result of the severe drought in the Midwest.

在農業部門，由於產量下降、進口競爭加劇以及汽油需求降低，乙醇出貨量下滑。此外，由於中西部嚴重乾旱，運往東南部的飼料穀物出貨量也較低。

Regarding the Construction sector, building products rebounded on the strength of a slowly improving housing environment. However, this was more than offset by lower aggregate shipments associated with lower infrastructure spending and lower salt shipments due to the high inventories from a mild 2012 winter.

就建築部門而言，建材產品受惠於住房環境緩步改善而回升。然而，與基礎建設支出下降相關的骨材出貨量減少，以及因2012年冬季溫和導致庫存偏高而使鹽類出貨量下降，以上因素的負面影響超過了建材回升的正面貢獻。

Looking to the first quarter of 2013, in the Industrial sector, we continued to see growth opportunities in Chemicals particularly in commodities related to the oil and gas industry. The automotive market will remain strong although we are now cycling tougher comparables. We expect the Agricultural sector to remain soft with lower grain shipments and continued weakness in ethanol more than offsetting increased fertilizer demand.

展望2013年第一季，在工業部門，我們持續看到化學品的成長機會，特別是與油氣產業相關的商品。汽車市場將維持強勁，儘管我們現在面臨較具挑戰性的比較基期。我們預期農業部門仍將疲弱，穀物出貨量下降與乙醇持續走弱的影響，將超過肥料需求增加所帶來的正面效益。

Finally, we anticipate a slow, steady recovery in the Construction sector that will drive growth in building products and aggregates.

最後，我們預期建築部門將呈現緩慢且穩健的復甦，帶動建材產品與骨材的成長。

Moving to the next page, let's review Intermodal. Intermodal revenue increased 6% to $398 million. Domestic volume was up 2%, driven by highway to rail conversions which continued despite a softening economic environment and the impact of Hurricane Sandy.

翻到下一頁，我們來回顧聯運（Intermodal）。聯運營收成長6%至3.98億美元。國內運量成長2%，主要由公路轉鐵路的轉換所帶動；即使經濟環境轉弱以及颶風桑迪的影響仍在，這項趨勢仍持續。

International volume grew 6% on growth related to the Maersk business. Total Intermodal revenue per unit increased 2% due to core pricing gains and higher fuel recovery. Looking forward, our strategic network investments such as the double stack clearing of our route into New England, the terminal expansions in Worcester and Columbus, Ohio will help increase our capacity and network fluidity while improving service for our customers.

國際運量成長6%，主要來自與馬士基（Maersk）業務相關的成長。聯運每單位總營收成長2%，受惠於核心定價提升與燃油回收增加。展望未來，我們的策略性網路投資，例如通往新英格蘭路線的雙層堆疊（double stack）淨空工程，以及麻薩諸塞州伍斯特（Worcester）與俄亥俄州哥倫布（Columbus）的場站擴建，將有助於提升運能與網路流動性，同時改善對客戶的服務。

At the same time as we maintain our focus on profitable growth, we are excited about our highway to rail or H2R initiative. We are working collaboratively with our channel partners to market the compelling value of intermodal rail transportation to targeted customers in this new initiative, which will be a key driver for CSX and tapping an estimated 9 million truckload opportunity.

在維持聚焦獲利成長的同時，我們也對公路轉鐵路（H2R）計畫感到振奮。在這項新計畫中，我們正與通路夥伴協同合作，向目標客戶推廣聯運鐵路運輸的強大價值主張；此計畫將成為CSX的重要成長動能，並切入估計約900萬車次的卡車載運機會。

Let's turn to the outlook for the first quarter. Looking forward, we recognize the economic environment has moderated and uncertainty remains. While we expect stable to favorable conditions for 71% of our markets, we expect an unfavorable environment for the remaining markets and an overall neutral outlook for the first quarter. Intermodal growth will lead the way as our strategic network investments and strong service delivery will continue to support highway to rail conversions.

接著談第一季展望。展望未來，我們認知到經濟環境已趨於溫和，且不確定性仍在。雖然我們預期71%的市場將呈現穩定至有利的狀況，但其餘市場預期環境不利，因此第一季整體展望為中性。聯運成長將領先帶動，因我們的策略性網路投資與強勁的服務交付將持續支持公路轉鐵路的轉換。

In addition, the chemicals market will grow as we capture opportunities created by the expanding domestic oil and gas industry. Automobile and light truck production will remain strong but year-over-year comparisons become more difficult in 2013.

此外，隨著我們掌握國內油氣產業擴張所創造的機會，化學品市場將成長。汽車與輕型卡車產量將維持強勁，但2013年的年對年比較將更具挑戰。

In emerging markets, we expect to continue recovery in demand for construction and building materials while waste shipments will remain challenged. The overall look for agricultural products remains unfavorable with low corn supply and high prices caused by last year's drought impacting shipments to feed mills and ethanol shipments impacted by lower demand and higher corn prices.

在新興市場方面，我們預期建築與建材需求將持續復甦，而廢棄物運輸仍將面臨挑戰。農產品整體展望仍不利：去年乾旱造成玉米供給偏低且價格偏高，影響運往飼料廠的出貨；同時乙醇出貨也因需求下降與玉米價格上升而受影響。

Finally, export coal volume will be lower on softer demand for thermal coal and domestic coal volume is expected to remain below prior-year levels although the headwinds will moderate throughout the year.

最後，由於動力煤需求轉弱，出口煤炭運量將較低；而國內煤炭運量預期仍將低於去年水準，儘管不利因素將在全年逐步趨緩。

Now in wrapping up, looking at the state of the economy, the indicators we follow generally point to continued expansion but at a more modest pace. Overall, the first-quarter volume outlook is neutral but the outlook for 71% of our markets is neutral to favorable. We anticipate total volume will be flat to slightly down year-over-year with declines in unfavorable markets offsetting the gains in the favorable markets.

總結而言，從經濟狀況來看，我們追蹤的指標大致指向經濟將持續擴張，但步伐較為溫和。整體而言，第一季運量展望為中性，但我們71%的市場展望為中性至有利。我們預期總運量年對年持平至小幅下滑，不利市場的下滑將抵銷有利市場的成長。

Utility coal volume will continue to be challenged by low gas prices and high utility stockpiles. Although we expect these headwinds to moderate somewhat through the balance of the year, we anticipate they will continue well into 2013.

公用事業用煤運量將持續受到低天然氣價格與公用事業高庫存的挑戰。雖然我們預期這些不利因素在今年剩餘期間將略為趨緩，但我們預期它們仍將延續至2013年相當一段時間。

At the same time, much like we saw in 2012, we expect our Merchandise and Intermodal markets to continue to grow at a rate that is above the general economy. Finally, we continue to deliver high levels of service which creates compelling value for our customers and will drive long-term profitable volume and revenue growth for the shareholders.

同時，如同我們在2012年所見，我們預期一般貨物與聯運市場將持續以高於整體經濟的速度成長。最後，我們持續提供高水準的服務，為客戶創造具吸引力的價值，並將推動股東長期且具獲利性的運量與營收成長。

Thank you and now I will turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

謝謝，接下來我將把簡報交給Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運結果。

Thank you, Mr. Gooden, and good morning to everybody. I am pleased to report that CSX's operating performance for the fourth quarter is again strong across the board. Safety results continue to be at or near all-time best levels, reflecting our strong safety culture that has driven sustained improvement over the last nine years.

謝謝您，Gooden先生，各位早安。我很高興報告，CSX第四季的營運表現再次全面強勁。安全成果持續維持在或接近歷史最佳水準，反映我們強健的安全文化，並在過去九年推動了持續改善。

Customer satisfaction is also at record levels, reflecting the team's ongoing focus on service excellence. At the same time, resource adjustments and asset utilization produced nearly 200 million of productivity for last year. And as we look long-term, our operational strategy is based on providing safe, efficient, and reliable freight transportation solutions for our customer. This also positions us well to deliver strong value for shareowners.

客戶滿意度也達到創紀錄水準，反映團隊持續專注於卓越服務。同時，資源調整與資產運用在去年帶來近2億美元的生產力效益。從長期來看，我們的營運策略是為客戶提供安全、高效率且可靠的貨運運輸解決方案。這也使我們具備良好條件，為股東創造強勁價值。

So let's review the results for the quarter and we'll start with safety. As you know, safety remains a consistent focus at our Company and in the industry. Strong results in safety demonstrate not only adherence to operating rules but are a reflection of employees' engagement. Looking at the FRA personal injury rate on the chart on the top left, our employees operated safer than ever and CSX produced a record low rate of 0.54 representing an astonishing 42% improvement year-over-year.

接著我們來檢視本季結果，先從安全開始。如各位所知，安全一直是本公司及整個產業一貫的重點。優異的安全成果不僅展現對營運規章的遵循，也反映員工的投入程度。從左上方圖表的FRA人身傷害率來看，我們員工的作業安全性創下新高，CSX創下0.54的歷史新低，年對年改善幅度高達驚人的42%。

The chart on the bottom left shows a consistent pattern of improvement over the last four years in personal injury results, another illustration of the Company's strong safety culture. The chart on the top right shows the FRA train accident rate which improved 38% to 1.70. The full-year results on the bottom right show a similar improvement with a 2012 train accident rate of 1.98.

左下方的圖表顯示，過去四年人身傷害結果呈現一致的改善趨勢，這再次說明本公司強健的安全文化。右上方的圖表顯示，FRA列車事故率改善38%，降至1.70。右下方的全年結果顯示類似改善，2012年列車事故率為1.98。

Before moving on, let me pause and thank our employees for their outstanding effort in this area. As the FRA recently noted, railroad safety is at record levels and I am especially proud that CSX led the entire industry in 2012. These results are a testament to our employees' commitment to each other and to the communities we serve.

在繼續之前，讓我先停下來感謝我們員工在這方面的傑出努力。正如FRA近期所指出，鐵路安全已達到歷史新高水準，而我尤其自豪的是，CSX在2012年領先整個產業。這些成果證明了我們員工彼此之間以及對我們所服務社區的承諾。

Now on the next slide, let's review on-time performance. Here you can see on-time originations on the left, on-time arrivals on the right. You may recall that during the fourth quarter, CSX was impacted by Hurricane Sandy. Although the storm caused a temporary shutdown, washed out segments of the network and impacted port operations, our employees once was again responded valiantly and service was restored quickly.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來回顧準點表現。左側可看到準點發車，右側可看到準點到達。各位或許記得，在第四季期間，CSX受到颶風桑迪影響。儘管風暴造成暫時停運、沖毀部分路網並影響港口作業，我們的員工再次英勇應對，服務也迅速恢復。

During the quarter, CSX matched the record high of 90% in on-time originations and achieved a record in on-time arrivals at 84%.

本季，CSX準點發車率達到90%的歷史高點（持平紀錄），準點到達率則創下84%的新紀錄。

Now from a system performance, let's turn to the next slide. Terminal dwell is a strong indicator of how well we are utilizing our assets. Looking at the chart on the left, you see dwell improved 4% to 24.3 hours. Looking at the chart on the right, velocity again showed improvement up 7% to 23.3 miles per hour. This is a clear example of where great customer service builds great shareholder value.

接下來從系統績效的角度，讓我們看下一張投影片。場站停留時間（terminal dwell）是衡量我們資產運用效率的重要指標。看左側圖表，停留時間改善4%，降至24.3小時。看右側圖表，列車速度再次提升，上升7%至每小時23.3英里。這清楚說明了：卓越的客戶服務能創造卓越的股東價值。

Assets moving through the network quickly and reliably translate to customers receiving outstanding service and over the long term allows for more efficient capital deployment.

資產在路網中快速且可靠地流動，意味著客戶能獲得卓越服務，長期而言也使資本配置更有效率。

Now let's go to velocity on the next slide. As a further reflection of the operating improvement, velocity was once again up against all -- up across all three networks. In coal, we are driving improvements in service and efficiency, with volume down 19%, CSX adjusted operating plans and maximized loadings to increase both train length and tons per car.

接著看下一張投影片的速度表現。作為營運改善的進一步反映，速度再次在三大路網全面提升。在煤炭業務方面，我們持續推動服務與效率改善；在運量下降19%的情況下，CSX調整營運計畫並最大化裝載量，以同時提高列車長度與每車噸數。

Turning to Intermodal, velocity continued to reach high levels with a record fourth-quarter volume. Higher velocity in the Intermodal network gives us the ability to reach end markets more quickly and meet or exceed customer expectations. Across the network, container and trailer availability to the customer in the terminal was at 86% and in the high 90s for our expedited product.

再看聯運（Intermodal），在第四季運量創新高的帶動下，速度持續維持在高水準。聯運路網更高的速度，使我們能更快觸及終端市場，並達到或超越客戶期望。在整體路網中，場站提供給客戶的貨櫃與拖車可用率為86%，而我們的快速產品可用率則達到90%多。

Finally, the Merchandise network also continues to perform well, with velocity up 5% to 21.9 miles per hour. Car cycle times improved 8%. This means we are making more final deliveries to customers on time requiring fewer locomotives, cars, and crew sites.

最後，商品（Merchandise）路網也持續表現良好，速度提升5%至每小時21.9英里。車輛週轉時間改善8%。這表示我們能準時完成更多最終交付，同時需要更少的機車、車輛與乘務據點。

Over the course of the year, service has improved significantly in all the markets that we serve including those where we have absorbed strong growth.

在過去一年中，我們在所服務的所有市場之服務水準均顯著提升，包括那些我們已吸收強勁成長的市場。

Turning to the next slide, we will look at productivity. Over the past five years, CSX has delivered nearly $850 million of productivity savings including nearly $200 million in 2012. Efficiencies last year were driven by overall car cycle times that were 15% shorter, lower estimate, lower overtime up across all operating departments, and increased fuel efficiency. In 2013, we expect to build off this success by delivering another $130 million in productivity gains.

接著看下一張投影片，我們將檢視生產力。過去五年，CSX已實現近8.5億美元的生產力節省，其中2012年接近2億美元。去年效率提升主要來自：整體車輛週轉時間縮短15%、估算成本降低、各營運部門加班時數下降，以及燃油效率提升。在2013年，我們預期在此成功基礎上再創造1.3億美元的生產力提升。

We will continue to focus on improved asset utilization using a combination of plan, process, and technology enhancements to continue to gain traction. We will also adjust resources up or down based on customer demand and remain flexible to ensure we are operating as efficiently as possible. We are moving locomotives in and out of storage more efficiently now and we are leveraging furlough retention boards when it makes sense.

我們將持續聚焦於提升資產使用效率，透過規劃、流程與技術強化的組合，持續取得進展。我們也會依客戶需求上調或下調資源配置，並保持彈性，以確保營運盡可能高效率。我們現在更有效率地讓機車進出封存，並在合適時機運用停薪留職保留名冊（furlough retention boards）。

So let's talk more specifically about the reserve adjustments we made in 2012 on the next slide.

那麼，讓我們在下一張投影片更具體談談我們在2012年所做的預備金調整。

The chart on the left represents the total active T&E workforce with the blue portion of the bars representing full-time employees and the gold portion representing those employees on furlough retention boards. On a year-over-year basis, the active T&E count was down 1% with volume down 3%. At year-end, CSX had over 600 employees on full furlough and approximately 300 on furlough retention board.

左側圖表代表T&E（運輸與引擎）在職人力總數，柱狀圖的藍色部分代表全職員工，金色部分代表列入停薪留職保留名冊的員工。以年對年比較，在運量下降3%的情況下，在職T&E人數下降1%。截至年底，CSX有超過600名員工處於完全停薪留職狀態，約300名列入停薪留職保留名冊。

As you know, furlough retention boards are useful in areas of the network where we would otherwise need to hire new employees to meet attrition or customer demand within a relatively short period of time. It's easier and quicker to bring an employee off one of these retention boards in the longer process of bringing an employee back from a traditional furlough.

如各位所知，停薪留職保留名冊在路網某些區域非常有用；在這些區域，我們原本可能需要在相對短時間內為了補足自然流失或因應客戶需求而招募新員工。相較於從傳統停薪留職狀態召回員工的較長流程，從這些保留名冊召回員工更容易也更快速。

For those currently on full furlough, we have offered a voluntary transfer. The intent of this program is to meet employee demand in other geographic locations without incurring the hiring and training costs associated with most new employees.

對於目前處於完全停薪留職的員工，我們提供自願調動方案。此計畫的目的，是在不承擔多數新進員工所需的招募與訓練成本下，滿足其他地理區域的用人需求。

In addition to lower T&E headcount, overtime hours were down 17%, with 26% fewer relief crews in the quarter.

除了T&E人數下降之外，加班時數也下降17%，本季支援（替補）乘務組數量減少26%。

Now let's look at locomotives. Looking at the chart on the left, you can see that the active locomotive count peaked during the first quarter of 2012. Since then we have been storing excess power and had 8% fewer locomotives in the fourth quarter of 2012 than a year ago with nearly 400 units currently stored.

現在我們來看機車。從左側圖表可見，2012年第一季在用機車數量達到高峰。此後我們將多餘動力封存；2012年第四季在用機車數量較一年前減少8%，目前封存近400台。

We measure our locomotive efficiency based on gross ton miles per horsepower hour. Using this measure, locomotive efficiency improved by 7% on a year-over-year basis.

我們以每馬力小時的總噸英里（gross ton miles per horsepower hour）衡量機車效率。依此指標，機車效率年對年提升7%。

The decision to store locomotives is aimed at saving costs but not at the price of service or flexibility. As such, we are constantly monitoring locomotive levels and are currently bringing some units out of storage to prepare for seasonal volume needs. As we make changes to the locomotive count, it is critical that we monitor the impact on the service, recognizing that locomotives are generally a fluid asset and we can put in or take out of storage on a relatively short notice to meet demand or service need.

封存機車的決策旨在節省成本，但不以犧牲服務或彈性為代價。因此，我們持續監控機車水位，目前正將部分機車自封存中調出，以因應季節性運量需求。在調整機車數量時，關鍵在於監控對服務的影響；我們也認知到機車通常是流動性資產，可在相對短的通知期內封存或解除封存，以滿足需求或服務需要。

Let me turn my attention to customer satisfaction on the next slide. Every quarter, CSX uses an independent firm to survey our customers on a wide range of factors that influence customer satisfaction. These factors include things like speed and consistency of service, problem resolution, and ease of order placement. In 2012, we received our highest score ever from customers, highlighting the operating success we have sustained.

接下來在下一張投影片，我把焦點轉向客戶滿意度。每一季，CSX都會委託獨立機構，就影響客戶滿意度的多項因素對客戶進行調查。這些因素包括服務速度與一致性、問題解決，以及下單便利性等。2012年，我們獲得客戶給予的歷來最高分，凸顯我們持續維持的營運成果。

When we look at the makeup of the overall customer satisfaction score, the most significant driver of the increase is our total score -- the most significant driver of the increase in our total score is the progress we have made in local service delivery.

當我們檢視整體客戶滿意度分數的構成時，推動提升的最重要因素是我們的總分——推動我們總分提升的最重要因素，是我們在在地服務交付方面所取得的進展。

By focusing on service excellence across all operating departments, we've been able to proactively address customer issues and respond quickly to their concerns. Over the long term, consistent service translates into sustained high levels of satisfaction and in turn is a key enabler for CSX to capture future growth.

透過在所有營運部門專注於卓越服務，我們得以主動處理客戶問題，並迅速回應其關切。長期而言，一致的服務可轉化為持續的高滿意度，並進而成為 CSX 把握未來成長的關鍵推動力。

So let me wrap up. CSX's record personal injury and near record train accident results demonstrate the Company's commitment to keep our employees and the communities we work in safe. Our operating team had an outstanding year in 2012, operating as safely as we ever have and serving customers efficiently while generating nearly $200 million of productivity.

那麼我來做個總結。CSX 創下個人傷害事故新低、列車事故接近歷史新低的成果，展現公司致力於確保員工與我們所服務社區安全的承諾。我們的營運團隊在 2012 年表現出色，以前所未有的安全水準運作，並在高效率服務客戶的同時，創造了近 2 億美元的生產力效益。

As we look forward, we expect to sustain momentum on service and asset utilization and are targeting an additional $130 million of savings in productivity. In addition, customers are experiencing service reliability at sustainably high levels which help CSX achieve record levels of customer satisfaction. This service product drives long-term value for customers, which in turn drives growth and long-term value for all owners.

展望未來，我們預期將在服務與資產運用方面延續動能，並以額外 1.3 億美元的生產力節省為目標。此外，客戶正體驗到可持續維持在高水準的服務可靠性，這有助於 CSX 達成創紀錄的客戶滿意度。此一服務產品為客戶帶來長期價值，進而推動成長，並為所有股東帶來長期價值。

We recognize there is uncertainty in the market place and CSX remains committed to providing flexible solutions for customers to enable growth and drive significant long-term value for shareowners.

我們認知市場存在不確定性，而 CSX 仍致力於為客戶提供具彈性的解決方案，以促進成長並為股東創造顯著的長期價值。

So with that, let me turn the presentation over to Fredrik for a review of the financial.

那麼，接下來我把簡報交給 Fredrik，請他回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar, and good morning, everyone. Looking at the top of this slide, revenue was down 2% for the fourth quarter. At the same time, expenses improved 1%, driven primarily by lower volume, productivity, and efficiency gains related to resource adjustments made in response to changing market conditions.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。從這張投影片上方來看，第四季營收年減 2%。同時，費用改善 1%，主要受惠於運量較低、生產力提升，以及因應市場環境變化而進行資源調整所帶來的效率增益。

Operating income was $804 million, down 4% versus the prior year. Looking below the line, interest expense was up slightly year-over-year reflecting debt that was issued in the fourth quarter to pre-fund most of the 2013 maturities.

營業利益為 8.04 億美元，較去年同期下降 4%。再看營業利益以下項目，利息費用年增小幅上升，反映我們在第四季發行債務，以預先籌措 2013 年多數到期債務的資金。

Other income rose $59 million, primarily driven by a $57 million pretax gain on the sale of a non-operating property. Income taxes were $275 million in the quarter for an effective tax rate of 38.3%.

其他收益增加 5,900 萬美元，主要來自出售一項非營運性不動產所產生的 5,700 萬美元稅前處分利益。本季所得稅費用為 2.75 億美元，有效稅率為 38.3%。

Overall, net earnings was $443 million, down 3% versus last year and EPS was $0.43 per share, unchanged from last year, reflecting the impact of our share repurchase program.

整體而言，淨利為 4.43 億美元，較去年下降 3%；每股盈餘（EPS）為每股 0.43 美元，與去年持平，反映我們庫藏股買回計畫的影響。

As we turn to the next slide, let's briefly discuss how fuel lag benefited the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the effect of the lag in our fuel surcharge program was $14 million favorable. This reflects the $5 million positive in quarter lag during the fourth quarter of 2012 and the $9 million unfavorable in quarter lag for the same period last year.

接著看下一張投影片，我們簡要說明燃油滯後如何使本季受益。以年對年比較，我們燃油附加費機制中的滯後效應帶來 1,400 萬美元的有利影響。這反映 2012 年第四季當季滯後帶來 500 萬美元正向影響，以及去年同期當季滯後帶來 900 萬美元不利影響。

Turning to the next slide, let's discuss expenses in more detail. Overall expenses were down 1% in the quarter. I will talk about the top three expense items in more detail on the next few slides but let me briefly speak to the last two on the chart.

接著看下一張投影片，我們更詳細討論費用。整體費用在本季下降 1%。接下來幾張投影片我會更深入說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談談圖表中的最後兩項。

Depreciation was up 15% to $271 million due to the increase in the net asset base and the cycling of a prior-year favorable adjustment related to asset retirements. On a sequential basis, the increase in depreciation was $3 million in line with the guidance we gave last quarter. Going forward, we continue to expect depreciation to increase a few million dollars each quarter, reflecting the ongoing investment in our business.

折舊費用增加 15% 至 2.71 億美元，原因是淨資產基礎增加，以及前一年度與資產報廢相關的有利調整在本期回轉。以季對季來看，折舊增加 300 萬美元，符合我們上季提供的指引。展望未來，我們仍預期折舊每季將增加數百萬美元，反映我們對業務的持續投資。

Equipment rent was up 5% to $97 million as improved cycle time of our car fleet was more than offset by higher costs associated with automotive volume growth.

設備租賃費用增加 5% 至 9,700 萬美元，因為雖然車隊周轉時間改善，但仍被汽車運量成長所帶來的較高成本所抵銷。

Now let's discuss labor and fringe in more detail. Labor and fringe expense was down 3% versus last year or $27 million. Looking at the chart on the left, headcount, which includes employees on retention boards, was down 2% both versus last year and sequentially.

現在我們更詳細討論人力與附加福利費用。人力與附加福利費用較去年下降 3%，或減少 2,700 萬美元。從左側圖表來看，員工人數（包含留任名單上的員工）較去年及較前一季均下降 2%。

Last quarter we gave guidance that our headcount would remain relatively constant, but also noted that we would adjust accordingly as market conditions warranted. Accordingly, as we saw business conditions slow throughout the quarter, we reduced our headcount.

上季我們的指引是員工人數將大致維持不變，但也指出會視市場狀況需要而調整。因此，當我們看到本季期間業務狀況逐步放緩時，我們便降低了員工人數。

Moving to the table on the right, efficiency and volume-related cost savings drove $35 million of cost favorability compared to last year primarily driven by a 6% reduction in crew starts and lower employee headcount.

再看右側表格，效率提升與運量相關的成本節省，帶來相較去年 3,500 萬美元的成本有利差異，主要由於乘務開工次數下降 6% 以及員工人數降低。

Moving down the table, labor inflation was up $9 million in line with our expectations, which were for labor inflation to rise modestly from the third quarter. While wage inflation was about 3%, lower costs on health and welfare programs as well as the impact of a lower railroad unemployment tax rate continued to provide favorability. Rounding out the table, other costs were $1 million lower.

往下看表格，人力通膨增加 900 萬美元，符合我們的預期；我們原先預期人力通膨將較第三季小幅上升。雖然薪資通膨約為 3%，但健康與福利計畫成本下降，以及鐵路失業稅率降低的影響，持續帶來有利因素。表格最後，其他成本減少 100 萬美元。

Looking at the first quarter, headcount should remain relatively constant on a sequential basis though as we demonstrated this quarter, we will adjust accordingly as business conditions warrant. In addition, as we move into 2013, we expect that labor inflation will rise to around $20 million a quarter.

展望第一季，員工人數在季對季基礎上應大致維持不變；不過如同本季所示，我們將視業務狀況需要而調整。此外，進入 2013 年後，我們預期人力通膨將上升至每季約 2,000 萬美元。

Next, we will review MS&O expenses on slide 32. MS&O expenses decreased 7% or $41 million versus last year. Looking at the table on the right, the change in real estate gains reduced MS&O expense by $21 million versus 2011, the details of which are provided in the quarterly financial report.

接下來，我們將在第 32 頁投影片檢視 MS&O 費用。MS&O 費用較去年下降 7%，或減少 4,100 萬美元。從右側表格來看，不動產處分利益的變動使 MS&O 費用相較 2011 年減少 2,100 萬美元，相關細節已載於季度財務報告。

Next, efficiency and volume-related cost savings reduced our MS&O expenses by $19 million compared to last year. The impact of running 8% fewer locomotives coupled with material cost savings initiatives had a favorable impact on our materials usage.

接著，效率提升與運量相關的成本節省，使我們的 MS&O 費用較去年減少 1,900 萬美元。機車運行數量減少 8%，加上材料成本節省措施，對我們的材料使用帶來有利影響。

Moving down the table, inflation increased by $12 million while net casualty and other decreased $13 million as continuing favorable adjustments to our cash with the reserves as well as other favorable costs were partially offset by the railroad costs.

往下看表格，通膨增加 1,200 萬美元，而淨災損及其他項目減少 1,300 萬美元；原因是我們現金準備金的持續有利調整及其他有利成本，部分被鐵路相關成本所抵銷。

Moving to the next slide, let's discuss the impact of fuel. Total fuel costs decreased $2 million versus last year. Looking at the table to the right, fuel efficiency was favorable by $15 million reflecting a 4% year-over-year improvement in gallons consumed per gross ton mile. Lower volume also reduced fuel expense by $15 million with gross ton miles down 4%.

接著看下一張投影片，我們討論燃油的影響。燃油總成本較去年減少 200 萬美元。從右側表格來看，燃油效率帶來 1,500 萬美元的有利影響，反映每總噸英里耗用加侖數年對年改善 4%。運量較低也使燃油費用減少 1,500 萬美元，總噸英里下降 4%。

Next, as shown in the chart on the left, CSX's average cost per gallon for locomotive fuel increased to $3.28, up 8% versus last year, and driving an increase of $28 million as seen in the chart on the right.

接著，如左側圖表所示，CSX 機車燃油每加侖平均成本上升至 3.28 美元，較去年增加 8%，並如右側圖表所示推升成本增加 2,800 萬美元。

That concludes the detailed expense review for the fourth quarter. Now let's turn to the full-year results on slide 34.

以上為第四季費用的詳細檢視。現在我們在第 34 頁投影片轉向全年結果。

On a full-year basis, revenue was up slightly to $11.8 billion as volume growth in Merchandise and Intermodal, pricing gains and higher fuel recovery was offset by coal volume declines. Total expense for the year was slightly down as productivity savings were offset by higher depreciation and inflation.

以全年來看，營收小幅上升至 118 億美元；商品與聯運運量成長、定價收益及燃油回收增加，抵銷了煤炭運量下滑的影響。全年總費用小幅下降，因生產力節省被較高的折舊與通膨所抵銷。

As a result, full-year operating income was up 1% and operating ratio improved to 70.6% despite the substantial coal headwinds and a moderating economy. Finally, earnings per share increased 7% due to earnings growth and the impact of our share repurchase program.

因此，儘管煤炭業務面臨重大逆風且經濟趨於放緩，全年營業利益仍成長1%，營業比率改善至70.6%。最後，由於獲利成長以及我們股票回購計畫的影響，每股盈餘成長7%。

Moving to the next slide, I would like to take moment to review CSX's full-year performance in more detail.

接著看下一張投影片，我想花點時間更詳細地回顧CSX的全年表現。

2012 was a year in which CSX lost over $500 million of coal revenue year-over-year as utilities on our network accelerated the switch from coal to natural gas. It was also a year clouded by a global economic uncertainty, as Europe grappled with recession while both the US and Chinese economies decelerated over the course of the year. Despite these obstacles, CSX delivered on its guidance to grow earnings and improve operating margins.

2012年，隨著我們網路上的公用事業加速從煤炭轉向天然氣，CSX的煤炭營收較前一年減少超過5億美元。同時，全球經濟不確定性籠罩全年，歐洲陷入衰退，而美國與中國經濟也在年內逐步放緩。儘管面臨這些障礙，CSX仍依指引達成獲利成長並改善營業利潤率。

By focusing on delivering a superior service product, CSX was able to grow non-coal volume by 4% in a moderate economic environment. This volume growth combined with continued inflation plus pricing resulted in more than $500 million of additional Merchandise and Intermodal revenue in 2012.

透過專注於提供更優質的服務產品，CSX得以在溫和的經濟環境下，將非煤炭運量提升4%。此運量成長結合持續的通膨加成定價，使2012年雜貨（Merchandise）與聯運（Intermodal）營收增加超過5億美元。

In addition, our focus on providing a superior service product for our customers was also a key driver in improving asset utilization. As a result, CSX was able to generate nearly $200 million in productivity savings.

此外，我們專注於為客戶提供更優質的服務產品，也是提升資產利用率的關鍵驅動因素。因此，CSX得以創造近2億美元的生產力節省。

At the same time, CSX also benefited in 2012 from two items which we will cycle in 2013. First, we had $55 million of lower incentive compensation in 2012 versus the prior year. Second, gains on the Sun Rail transaction comprised the majority of the $90 million of favorability in 2012 real estate interactions.

同時，CSX在2012年也受惠於兩項因素，而這些因素將在2013年消失（進入比較基期）。第一，2012年的獎勵性薪酬較前一年減少5,500萬美元。第二，Sun Rail交易的收益構成2012年不動產交易有利影響9,000萬美元中的大部分。

Looking at 2013, we expect Sun Rail to be a much smaller contributor to our operating income. Of the remaining deferred gains we expect to realize about $40 million in the first half of 2013 with the balance to be recognized in future years.

展望2013年，我們預期Sun Rail對營業利益的貢獻將小得多。就剩餘的遞延收益而言，我們預期2013年上半年將實現約4,000萬美元，其餘將於未來年度認列。

Now let's turn to the next slide to discuss 2012 capital investment, dividends, and share buybacks. On the left-hand side of the page, full-year capital investment was $2.2 billion, excluding public-private reimbursable projects, unchanged from last year. Our 2012 investment reflects our continued commitment to improving our infrastructure and equipment to sustain high safety and service levels, enhanced productivity and leveraged strategic growth opportunities that can produce superior returns.

現在讓我們看下一張投影片，討論2012年的資本投資、股利與股票回購。在頁面左側，全年資本投資為22億美元（不含公私合作可償付專案），與去年持平。我們2012年的投資反映出我們持續致力於改善基礎設施與設備，以維持高水準的安全與服務、提升生產力，並把握可帶來優異報酬的策略性成長機會。

Moving to the right, CSX paid dividends of $0.54 per share in 2012, up 20% versus last year. Going forward, CSX remains committed to a dividend payout range of 30% to 35% of trailing 12-month earnings and this will be reviewed annually after the first quarter.

再看右側，CSX於2012年每股發放股利0.54美元，較去年增加20%。展望未來，CSX仍致力於將股利配發率維持在過去12個月盈餘的30%至35%區間，並將於第一季後每年檢視一次。

Finally in 2012, CSX fulfilled its commitment to complete its 2 billion share repurchase program by repurchasing $734 million during the course of the year. Collectively, CSX has repurchased $7.9 billion of shares since 2006, representing approximately one-third of total shares outstanding today.

最後在2012年，CSX透過全年回購7.34億美元股票，履行完成20億美元股票回購計畫的承諾。合計而言，自2006年以來CSX已回購79億美元股票，約占目前流通在外股數的三分之一。

Looking forward, CSX remains committed to share buybacks as an important tool to return free cash flows to investors. We will update you on our plans for future share buybacks in the coming months.

展望未來，CSX仍將股票回購視為向投資人返還自由現金流的重要工具。我們將在未來幾個月向各位更新後續股票回購計畫。

Moving to the next slide, let's discuss capital investment plans for 2013. In 2013, CSX plans to invest $2.3 billion in our business with an increase versus 2012 almost entirely driven by positive train control. On the chart on the left, you can see that the bulk of the capital spending in 2013 will again be used to maintain the infrastructure in the invest in equipment to help ensure a fluid network for our customers and to enhance productivity.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我們討論2013年的資本投資計畫。2013年，CSX計畫在業務上投資23億美元，較2012年增加的部分幾乎完全由正向列車控制（PTC）所驅動。從左側圖表可見，2013年大部分資本支出仍將用於維護基礎設施並投資設備，以協助確保客戶網路運行順暢並提升生產力。

We'll also continue to focus on strategic investments that support long-term profitable growth. Intermodal highway to rail movement in the East continues to be one of the best long-term growth opportunities. We will invest accordingly to ensure that we are positioned to capture this profitable growth and generate attractive incremental returns.

我們也將持續聚焦於支持長期獲利成長的策略性投資。在東部地區，聯運由公路轉向鐵路的運輸仍是最佳的長期成長機會之一。我們將據此進行投資，確保我們具備掌握此一獲利成長並創造具吸引力增量報酬的定位。

Finally, positive train control which in total is expected to cost $1.7 billion represents $325 million of spending in 2013 leaving approximately $800 million to be spent in the coming years to complete the project.

最後，正向列車控制（PTC）預計總成本為17億美元，其中2013年的支出為3.25億美元，未來幾年仍約有8億美元需投入以完成該專案。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. Recapping the year, CSX achieved earnings growth and margin expansion in 2012 despite substantial declines in our domestic coal market and a moderating economic environment. We accomplished that by executing well on the things we control the most -- providing a superior service product, maintaining inflation plus pricing, driving productivity to more than offset the cost inflation, and most importantly, remaining focused on providing the safest work environment for our employees and the communities we serve.

現在讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。回顧2012年，儘管國內煤炭市場大幅下滑且經濟環境趨於放緩，CSX仍達成獲利成長與利潤率擴張。我們之所以能做到，是因為把可控事項執行到位——提供更優質的服務產品、維持通膨加成定價、推動生產力以大幅抵銷成本通膨；最重要的是，持續專注於為員工與我們服務的社區提供最安全的工作環境。

Looking forward, we expect broad-based merchandise growth in 2013 to be led by our markets that support the oil and gas industry. We also see continued strong growth in Intermodal on further highway to rail conversion. However, we still expect coal to remain challenged well into 2013.

展望未來，我們預期2013年雜貨業務將呈現廣泛的成長，並由支持油氣產業的市場帶動。我們也看到聯運在更多公路轉鐵路的趨勢下，將持續強勁成長。然而，我們仍預期煤炭業務在2013年大部分時間將持續承壓。

On the domestic side, volume will continue to be affected by high inventories and low natural gas prices. On the export side, we expect volume to moderate from the record levels achieved in 2012. In addition, we anticipate transportation pricing for export coal to be pressured as we work with the producers to keep US coal competitive globally in an environment with underlying commodity price where thermal and metallurgical coal is lower.

在國內方面，運量將持續受到高庫存與低天然氣價格影響。在出口方面，我們預期運量將自2012年創下的歷史高點回落至較溫和水準。此外，隨著動力煤與冶金煤的基礎商品價格走低，我們預期出口煤的運輸定價將面臨壓力，因為我們將與生產商合作，在此環境下維持美國煤炭的全球競爭力。

As mentioned earlier, CSX will also be citing the expense favorability we experienced in 2012 from real estate transaction and incentive compensation.

如先前所提，CSX在2013年也將面臨2012年因不動產交易與獎勵性薪酬所帶來的費用有利因素消失（進入比較基期）。

While CSX has realized margin expansion for nine consecutive years and earnings growth in eight out of the last nine years, it is too early to project margin expansion and earnings growth for 2013 at this time due to the evolving coal market, the cycling of the 2012 benefits, and a still uncertain economy.

雖然CSX已連續九年實現營業比率改善，且在過去九年中有八年達成獲利成長，但由於煤炭市場仍在演變、2012年有利因素進入比較基期，以及經濟仍不明朗，目前仍言之過早，尚無法對2013年的利潤率擴張與獲利成長做出預測。

While 2013 will be a transitional year, our business remains fundamentally strong. Looking longer-term even with the evolution in energy that has occurred, our business prospects continue to point to a future of sustainable growth enabled by superior service product that supports inflation plus pricing, productivity gains, and a broad-based volume growth that tracks above the broader economy.

雖然2013年將是過渡的一年，我們的業務基本面仍然強勁。從更長期來看，即使能源結構已出現演變，我們的業務前景仍指向可持續成長的未來；此成長將由優質的服務產品所驅動，支撐通膨加成定價、生產力提升，以及高於整體經濟增速的廣泛運量成長。

With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把簡報交回Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Fredrik. At this time last year, we had just completed eight straight years of operating ratio improvement with earnings growth in seven of those years. Both occurred in a period that included one of the most severe economic periods in our nation's history.

謝謝你，Fredrik。就在去年的這個時候，我們剛完成營業比率連續八年改善，且其中七年實現獲利成長。這些成果都發生在一段期間內，而該期間包含了我國歷史上最嚴峻的經濟時期之一。

In 2012, we again grew earnings while facing a major drop in a key market, one of the slowest economic recoveries on record and a political environment that has added even more uncertainty to the mix. Through all of this we have remained a vibrant, healthy company with a compelling long-term value proposition for investors. That remains true today.

2012年，在面對關鍵市場大幅下滑、史上最緩慢的經濟復甦之一，以及使不確定性更高的政治環境之下，我們仍再次實現獲利成長。在這一切之中，我們始終維持為一家充滿活力且健康的公司，並為投資人提供具吸引力的長期價值主張。至今依然如此。

We still see the inevitable movement of freight to rails as the population and consumption increase. Global trade creates a need to move more product between ports and people. The highways continue to become more congested. The re-industrialization of our nation gains momentum and the nation becomes more aware of the environmental benefits we offer.

隨著人口與消費增加，我們仍然看到貨運不可避免地轉向鐵路運輸。全球貿易帶來在港口與人群之間運送更多產品的需求。公路持續變得更加壅塞。我國的再工業化正在加速推進，國家也愈發意識到我們所提供的環境效益。

CSX stands ready to bring real solutions to these problems on its premier transportation network, a network that serves a broad portfolio of products in some of the biggest and most robust consumer markets in the world. In the nearer term as we outlined earlier, 2013 will be another challenging year as the evolution in the energy market continues but begins to stabilize.

CSX 已準備好在其一流的運輸網路上，為這些問題帶來真正的解決方案；該網路服務多元的產品組合，覆蓋全球一些最大且最具韌性的消費市場。就較近的期間而言，如我們先前所述，隨著能源市場的演變持續但開始趨於穩定，2013 年仍將是充滿挑戰的一年。

Regardless of the conditions, we are going to focus relentlessly on the things that are most in our control of which are employees do extraordinarily well while capitalizing on market opportunities available in energy and other markets. By doing so, we will optimize our performance in the near-term and prepare for the bright future we see for our business and for you, our shareholders.

無論外部條件如何，我們都將毫不鬆懈地聚焦在我們最能掌控的事項上——而員工在這些方面表現得極為出色——同時把握能源及其他市場中可得的市場機會。藉此，我們將在短期內最佳化營運表現，並為我們所看見的業務光明前景以及各位股東的利益做好準備。

In the meantime, CSX like the customers we serve across many industries is advocating for Washington to remain diligent about deficit reduction, restore certainty and stability to the economy, and unleash the expansion that can and ultimately will take place.

同時，CSX 與我們在多個產業所服務的客戶一樣，正倡議華盛頓在削減赤字方面保持審慎與持續努力，恢復經濟的確定性與穩定性，並釋放能夠且最終必將發生的擴張動能。

Thank you for your time this morning and we now look forward to answering your questions.

感謝各位今天上午撥冗參與，我們現在期待回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions). Scott Group, Wolfe Trahan & Co.

（接線員指示）。Scott Group，Wolfe Trahan & Co.。

Good morning, guys. So Clarence, I wanted to start on the export coal side. I think the guidance for 40 million tons implies about an 8 million ton reduction and I'm wondering how you think about breaking that down between the met and the thermal side?

各位早安。Clarence，我想先從出口煤炭談起。我認為 4,000 萬噸的指引意味著大約減少 800 萬噸，我想了解你如何看待其中冶金煤與動力煤各自的拆分？

And then on the pricing side I know you talked about pressure on export pricing. We saw pressure on pricing in 2012. Do you think the pressure on pricing in 2013 is bigger or less worse than what we saw in 2012?

另外在定價方面，我知道你提到出口價格承壓。我們在 2012 年也看到價格壓力。你認為 2013 年的定價壓力會比 2012 年更大，還是較不嚴重？

Scott, as we told you, we expect the export coal to be about 40 million tons. It's a little early in the year to get much more precise than that. As you know, by the end of the first quarter, a lot of the metallurgical contracts for the quarter will start firming up and we will see what it looks like on that.

Scott，如同我們告訴你的，我們預期出口煤炭約為 4,000 萬噸。年初要更精準一些還為時過早。如你所知，到了第一季末，許多該季的冶金煤合約將開始明朗，我們也會看到實際情況如何。

In regards to the pricing, I would tell you that the metallurgical coal appears to us to be firming up in terms of pricing. The metallurgical coal that's selling at Queensland now which is the benchmark in Australia, is about at $170 a ton and it appears to have stabilized there over the last few months.

至於定價，我會說冶金煤的價格看起來正在走穩。目前在昆士蘭成交、作為澳洲基準的冶金煤價格約為每噸 170 美元，且過去幾個月似乎已在該水準附近穩定下來。

Where we could have some potential headwinds on the export coal pricing will be in the thermal coals with the API Index now running about $92. But having said that, we have about half of that 40 million or so tons of coal already under contract on the thermal side of the business, so we are pretty positive about where that pricing will be. Does that answer your question?

出口煤炭定價可能面臨的逆風會出現在動力煤，因為 API 指數目前約在 92 美元。但即便如此，在這約 4,000 萬噸煤炭中，我們在動力煤業務端已有大約一半簽訂合約，因此我們對該定價水準相當有信心。這樣有回答到你的問題嗎？

Certainly it does on the pricing side. I guess on the volume side, you are saying within that 40 million tons it is tough to know how much of it is going to be met and thermal. It's just too early to say. Is that what you are --?

當然，在定價方面確實回答了。我想在量的部分，你的意思是，在這 4,000 萬噸之內，很難判斷其中有多少會是冶金煤、多少是動力煤。現在還太早下結論。你的意思是這樣嗎——？

Yes, I know that 20 million of it is going to be thermal but I don't know how much more of that will be thermal. So it's going to be about the same mix we have had this year. For 2012, our mix was 50-50 met and thermal and for the fourth quarter, it was 56-44 in favor of met.

是的，我知道其中有 2,000 萬噸會是動力煤，但我不知道還會有多少會是動力煤。所以組合大致會與我們今年的組合相近。2012 年我們的組合是冶金煤與動力煤各半；而在第四季，冶金煤占比為 56%，動力煤為 44%。

Okay, that's great. Then just second question I guess for Fredrik or Michael, do you guys still have the 65 OR target longer-term? I know you've been talking about how it's a lot tougher to get to but you still see a chance for it. I am wondering given your view on 2013 if you still even see any chance of that or is that now really getting very tough to do?

好的，很棒。第二個問題可能是問 Fredrik 或 Michael：你們長期仍維持 65 的 OR（營運比率）目標嗎？我知道你們一直在談要達到它變得更困難，但仍認為有機會。我想知道，基於你們對 2013 年的看法，你們是否仍覺得有任何機會達成，還是現在真的變得非常難？

I think we are in the process right now of going through a really detailed bottoms-up review of our strategic plan just like we do every year and that plan is going to be reflective of the new coal environment that we find ourselves. There's some pluses and minuses I'm sure that's going to come out of that plan. There's certain markets that probably are stronger than we thought when we originally laid out that guidance, but obviously the big driver here is going to be what has occurred to our utility coal business.

我想我們目前正如同每年一樣，對策略計畫進行非常細緻、由下而上的檢視，而該計畫將反映我們所處的新煤炭環境。我相信該計畫會呈現一些利多與利空。某些市場可能比我們最初提出該指引時所預期的更強，但顯然這裡最大的驅動因素將是我們公用事業煤炭業務所發生的變化。

So we're going to work through that and review it with our Board here this spring and once we have gone through that, we are going to be communicating that appropriately some time after that session.

因此我們會把這些工作做完，並在今年春季與董事會一同檢視；完成之後，我們會在那次會議之後的某個時間，適當地對外溝通。

Okay, great. Thanks, I appreciate it.

好的，很好。謝謝，我很感激。

Tom Wadewitz, JPMorgan.

Tom Wadewitz，摩根大通。

Good morning, Michael. Good morning, everyone. Clarence, I wanted to ask a little bit of following up on the export pricing. I thought that given some of the pressures in fourth quarter in export pricing your revenue per car in coal might be down sequentially. It was actually flat.

早安，Michael。各位早安。Clarence，我想就出口定價再追問一下。我原本以為，考量第四季出口定價的一些壓力，你們煤炭每車收入（revenue per car）可能會季比下降。但實際上是持平。

I think you talked about -- I don't know if you are referring to a utility contract and maybe spot price up in the quarter or what it was that would have provided an offset. Can you give a little more thought on that sequential price in coal?

我想你提到——我不確定你是否指的是某個公用事業合約，以及該季現貨價格上升之類，或是其他提供抵銷的因素。你能否更進一步說明煤炭的季比價格變化？

Yes, Tom, I can. There are several factors of why that RPU in that coal remained relatively flat. One was the escalators that we have built into our utility contracts had kicked in. Second was we had a positive mix both in our Southern utilities which have a longer length of haul as well as a positive impact from Northern Utilities picking up. So it was a mixture of both the mix and the length of haul that we were handling as well as the escalators.

可以的，Tom。煤炭的 RPU（每單位收入）之所以仍相對持平，有幾個因素。第一，我們在公用事業合約中設定的價格調整條款（escalators）已開始生效。第二，我們在南部公用事業客戶的組合更有利（其運距較長），同時北部公用事業需求回升也帶來正面影響。因此，這是組合與運距，以及調整條款共同作用的結果。

Okay, so how would you --? Obviously you took some significant pressure on export pricing and your commentaries appropriately cautious I think on export looking at 2013. How would you think the revenue per car in coal would look if you compare it off of kind of a fourth-quarter base? Do you think that escalators repricing whatever in utility offsets weakness in export and you kind have flattish coal yields or how would you think about coal yields in total kind of up or down in 2013?

了解，那你會如何——？顯然你們在出口定價上承受了相當大的壓力，而你們對 2013 年出口的評論也相當審慎、我認為很恰當。如果以第四季作為基準來比較，你會如何看待煤炭每車收入的走勢？你認為公用事業合約的調整條款／重新定價等能抵銷出口疲弱，使煤炭收益大致持平，還是你會如何看待 2013 年整體煤炭收益是上升或下降？

Well, I think in 2013, Tom, you can sort of look at it being relatively flat on a year-over-year type basis with the yields there. As I mentioned earlier, we've got the thermal coal under contract so we are pretty comfortable with those numbers. I think export has about bottomed out in terms of the price there. And we will still have escalators in our current utility contracts.

Tom，我認為 2013 年你可以把收益視為在年對年基礎上大致持平。如我先前提到的，我們的動力煤已簽約，因此對這些數字相當放心。我認為出口價格在那裡大致已觸底。而我們現有的公用事業合約仍會有調整條款。

Okay, that's helpful. Thanks for your time.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝你撥冗。

Bill Greene, Morgan Stanley.

Bill Greene，摩根士丹利。

Good morning. Can I just ask one follow-up there just on coal? Was the take or pay at all a big deal this quarter or will it be next year that we have to think about that when we model the coal revenue?

早安。我可以就煤炭再追問一個問題嗎？本季的「take-or-pay（照付不議）」是否有造成很大影響，還是要到明年我們在建模煤炭營收時才需要考量？

No, Bill, it was not an issue at all.

不，Bill，這完全不是問題。

Okay, then Oscar, I know obviously some very impressive productivity metrics, but given what's going on with the coal side of the business, is there a case for taking a more aggressive sort of approach and sort of saying like -- I know you are talking about 130 and that's aggressive but just to say we've got to do even more and maybe this number could get ratcheted up over the course of the year. How sort of flexible is the cost structure?

好的。那麼 Oscar，我知道你們有一些非常亮眼的生產力指標，但考量到煤炭業務這邊的情況，是否有理由採取更積極的做法，比如說——我知道你提到 130，那已經很積極了——但是否應該說我們必須做得更多，而且這個數字可能在一年當中逐步上調。成本結構的彈性有多大？

Let me answer it a couple of ways, Bill. I think there is almost infinite possibilities over the long run. I think it's important to give our team credit for the great delivery in 2012. And as you know, our 130 is a long-term guidance that we've given for quite some time and it is a difficult thing.

Bill，我用幾個角度來回答。我認為從長期來看，幾乎有無限的可能性。我也認為重要的是要肯定我們團隊在 2012 年的出色交付。而且如你所知，我們提出的 130 是我們已經給出相當一段時間的長期指引，這是一件很不容易的事。

Having said that, as we have exhibited over the many years I think we do it cutely through the plus method on those numbers. Give us this first quarter to see how the weather turns out and see how we see business demand and I think we will give you a better update. But our numbers are not -- our published guidance numbers are not reflective of our long-term commitment to continued success there. So you will see more from us over the long run.

話雖如此，正如我們多年來所展現的，我認為我們會透過在這些數字上採取「plus」的方法來巧妙地做到。先給我們第一季的時間，看看天氣走勢如何，也看看我們對業務需求的觀察，我想我們會給你更好的更新。但我們的數字——我們已公布的指引數字——並不代表我們對於持續成功的長期承諾。所以從長期來看，你會看到我們做得更多。

Okay, fair enough. Thank you for the time.

好的，合理。謝謝你撥冗。

Kevin Crissey, UBS.

Kevin Crissey，瑞銀。

Good morning, just wondering what -- you're changing coal pricing to keep that commodity competitive in the world market, understood. Why is that not appropriate for all client and commoditized products? Why -- you talked about getting rail price, rail inflation plus pricing overall. Why wouldn't you have that same effect in other commodities where you see world prices decline or weakness in overall volumes such that your customers are struggling? Thanks.

早安。我想請教——你們調整煤炭定價以維持該商品在全球市場的競爭力，我理解。為什麼這不適用於所有客戶與商品化產品？為什麼——你談到整體要做到鐵路定價、鐵路通膨加成的定價。為什麼在其他商品上，當你看到全球價格下跌或整體運量疲弱、客戶經營吃緊時，不採取同樣的作法？謝謝。

Kevin, I think it varies in those commodity basis from literally from commodity to commodity. So let's take corn and soybeans, for example. Although those are world traded commodities because of the sheer volumes that the United States produces in both those markets, what is going to govern that in my view is going to be what the domestic market is for the US, whereas in this export coal market it is truly a global type of commodity.

Kevin，我認為這會因商品而異，真的是一個商品一個商品地不同。例如玉米和黃豆。雖然它們是全球交易的商品，但由於美國在這兩個市場的產量規模非常大，我認為主導因素會是美國國內市場的情況；而在出口煤市場，它確實是一種真正全球性的商品。

And the same thing applies in our phosphate and fertilizer business. Most of our phosphates and fertilizers are either domestically produced or North America produced, meaning Canada in this example, although some phosphates do come in from Morocco and Saudi Arabia, but they really don't tend to be market makers, if you will. Does that answer your question?

同樣的情況也適用於我們的磷酸鹽與肥料業務。我們的大多數磷酸鹽與肥料要麼是美國國內生產，要麼是北美生產（以此例而言是加拿大）；雖然也有一些磷酸鹽來自摩洛哥與沙烏地阿拉伯，但它們通常不太會成為所謂的市場定價者。這樣有回答到你的問題嗎？

Yes, so I understand the global aspect of it, but in general if the customer is struggling to make money or have -- end the market demand, will that have -- what effect would that have on your overall ability to --? I mean you are adding a certain amount of value but if their customers' product isn't adding as much value, it's difficult to see why they would want to pay a higher rate or be able to pay a higher rate.

有的，所以我理解其全球性面向。但一般而言，如果客戶很難賺錢或——終端市場需求不足，這會對你們整體的能力造成什麼影響——？我的意思是，你們確實增加了一定的價值，但如果他們客戶的產品沒有增加那麼多價值，就很難理解為什麼他們會願意支付更高的費率，或有能力支付更高的費率。

Kevin, this is Fredrik. We always look at our rate structure to make sure that we maximize whatever value we can create for CSX. So if there are opportunities to lower the rate to create more bottom-line value for CSX, we would do that. Export coal is a very extreme example of where we can create potentially incremental demand by lowering our rates to make sure that the producers are competitive worldwide.

Kevin，我是 Fredrik。我們一直會檢視我們的費率結構，以確保我們能最大化為 CSX 創造的價值。因此，如果有機會透過降低費率來為 CSX 創造更多的底線價值，我們會這麼做。出口煤是一個非常極端的例子：我們可以透過降低費率來潛在地創造額外需求，確保生產商在全球具競爭力。

If there are other opportunities like that, we would do that but you also know that at the same time we're very focused on inflation plus pricing and so that's a trade-off that we do in combination between what the sales and marketing team does and what we in finance work through in each and every contract to make sure we set the price at the right place to maximize the bottom line for CSX.

如果還有其他類似的機會，我們也會這麼做；但你也知道，同時我們非常專注於「通膨加成」的定價，因此這是一個取捨。我們會由銷售與行銷團隊，以及我們財務端，在每一份合約中逐一推演，確保把價格訂在正確的位置，以最大化 CSX 的底線。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行美林。

Great, good morning. Just as you -- can you talk through on the coal side as you look at repricing some of those contracts, what percent come up? Is it about -- I guess just give me a range of what you are looking at renewing in 2013 and how do those terms change now that the utilities have gone through this downturn? Are they guaranteeing lower minimums? Are they looking for rate relief? Can you kind of just walk us through how some of those negotiations are proceeding?

很好，早安。就煤炭這邊，當你們重新議價部分合約時，有多少比例會到期？大概——請給我一個你們在 2013 年預計續約的範圍；而在公用事業經歷這波下行之後，條款現在會如何改變？他們是否保證更低的最低量？他們是否在尋求運價減免？你能否帶我們了解一下這些談判目前的進展？

I assume that in the contracts you are talking about domestic utilities.

我假設你說的合約是指國內公用事業。

Yes, I am.

是的。

We don't have any major domestic utility contracts immediately coming up in 2013. We have some toward the very end of the fourth quarter so that's number one.

我們在 2013 年沒有任何重大的國內公用事業合約會立刻到期。有一些是在第四季非常接近年底的時候才到期，這是第一點。

Number two, I really don't want to get into how we price individual utility contracts because that tends to be between us and the utility and there is some market applications there.

第二點，我真的不想談我們如何為個別公用事業合約定價，因為那通常是我們與公用事業之間的事情，而且其中也有一些市場面的考量。

Okay, but can you at least follow-up in general? Are they -- are you seeing just given the high inventory levels, are you seeing lower demand levels on those take or pay portions of that guarantee?

好的，但你至少可以概括追問一下嗎？考量到高庫存水位，你們是否看到在那些 take-or-pay（照付不議）保證部分的需求水準更低？

We are not having a lot -- if you're asking about liquidated damages, we are not seeing a lot of liquidated damages. There's nothing material that's showing up right now.

我們沒有看到很多——如果你問的是違約金（liquidated damages），我們沒有看到很多違約金。目前沒有任何重大的項目浮現。

Okay, just a follow -- a follow-up question on the operating ratio target your long-term, obviously, Fredrik, you reiterated that only a couple months ago and I guess I just want to understand -- have things deteriorated more rapidly since your last couple of conference go-rounds? Just trying to ascertain what the incremental news is since you last reiterated.

好的，再追問一個關於你們長期營運比率目標的問題。顯然 Fredrik，你在幾個月前才再次重申，我只是想了解——自從你上次在幾場法說會巡迴中重申以來，情況是否惡化得更快？我想釐清自你上次重申以來，新增的變化是什麼。

I guess looking at the Florida gains, those have been scheduled to disappear for a while and I presume there is only maybe two to three quarters left on that. Just when you think about that, what scale does that target begin to change? Are you talking basis points or are things significantly different since you've last talked about it?

我想就佛羅里達的收益來看，那些本來就預計會在一段時間後消失，我推測可能只剩下兩到三季。當你考量這點時，那個目標的調整幅度大概會是什麼量級？你指的是幾個基點，還是自你上次談到以來已經顯著不同？

Really since the last earnings release and some of those public events we have had since then, nothing has really changed. It's become more and more challenging and we have said repeatedly we are going through the same process that we go through every year, which is to develop a strategic plan and then that gets approved by our Board during the spring.

其實自上次財報發布以及之後我們參與的一些公開活動以來，並沒有真正改變什麼。挑戰確實愈來愈大，而我們也一再表示，我們正在走每年都會走的同一套流程：制定策略計畫，然後在春季由董事會核准。

So nothing has really changed beyond the fact that we do have now a firmer understanding of 2013 and the challenge that we are facing that we have outlined today. So as I said, while clearly the coal environment is different and has continued to be a negative drag, we're also seeing some other opportunities that are potentially stronger or better than we thought previously, but net-net we've got to work through and see what the impact is on that for our long-term guidance.

因此，除了我們現在對2013年以及我們今天所概述、所面臨的挑戰有了更為明確的理解之外，實際上並沒有真正改變什麼。所以如我所說，雖然煤炭環境顯然不同，並且持續成為負面拖累，但我們也看到一些其他機會，可能比我們先前想的更強或更好；但總體而言，我們必須把這些因素梳理清楚，看看它們對我們長期指引的影響。

Great, I appreciate the insight.

很好，感謝你的見解。

Thomas Kim, Goldman Sachs.

Thomas Kim，高盛。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was interested in the Intermodal side of business. Would you be able to articulate what the growth would have been without Maersk? So just so we can get an idea of what the year-on-year comparisons might look like going forward once the comps sort of cycle through? Thank you.

早安。感謝讓我提問。我對聯運（Intermodal）業務這一塊很感興趣。你們能否說明一下，如果沒有馬士基（Maersk），成長會是多少？這樣我們就能了解，當可比基期逐步消化後，未來同比比較可能會呈現什麼樣子？謝謝。

Maersk was the preponderant driver of our international growth, so when you look on that flash report and you see those numbers there for the International segment, that was all driven primarily by Maersk.

馬士基是我們國際業務成長的主要驅動因素，所以當你看那份快報，看到國際事業部的那些數字時，基本上主要都是由馬士基所帶動。

The Domestic is growing at 5%, 6%.

國內業務成長約5%到6%。

-- 5% to 6% and we would have had -- our growth would've been about 2% higher in the quarter than it actually was but we were impacted by Hurricane Sandy. That really disrupted the entire New York -- Port Authority of New York and New Jersey there for nearly a couple of weeks.

—約5%到6%，而且如果不是受到颶風桑迪影響，我們本季的成長本來會比實際高出約2%。那次事件確實讓紐約—也就是紐約與新澤西港務局—的運作幾乎中斷了將近兩週。

Does that answer your question, Thomas?

Thomas，這樣有回答到你的問題嗎？

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊。

Good morning, everyone. Maybe I will follow up on that question, then. Is Domestic Intermodal growth of 5% to 6% then a fair target for 2013 especially after you have onboarded the Maersk business now?

各位早安。那我就接著追問一下。那麼，國內聯運在2013年成長5%到6%是否是合理目標，尤其是你們現在已經把馬士基業務納入之後？

I think that 5% to 6% for our Domestic business in 2013 would be in the range.

我認為2013年我們國內業務成長5%到6%會落在這個區間內。

Okay, how much of that is going to be utilizing existing capacity to think about the incremental benefits from growing that business?

好的，其中有多少會是利用既有產能，來思考這項業務成長所帶來的增量效益？

The majority of it would be in the current capacity that we have in the network both in the training network as well as the terminal network.

其中大部分會使用我們網路中現有的產能，包括列車運行網路以及場站（terminal）網路。

Okay. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Chris Weatherbee, Citi Investment Research.

Chris Weatherbee，花旗投資研究。

Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking the question. Just a quick question just to clarify on the export pricing. Clarence, you mentioned on the thermal side you said about 20 million tons of the outlook for 2013 is thermal. Is it fair to say that that is under contract -- that does not come up for renewal in 2013 or is already locked in from a price perspective?

各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。我有個簡短問題，想釐清出口定價。Clarence，你提到在動力煤（thermal）方面，你說2013年的展望中大約有2,000萬噸是動力煤。是否可以說這部分是在合約之下—也就是2013年不會到期續約，或從價格角度來看已經鎖定？

It's already locked in from a price perspective.

從價格角度來看已經鎖定了。

Okay, that's very helpful, thank you. Then maybe switching gears back to Intermodal, I just want to get an understanding of how lapping Maersk may impact kind of Intermodal yield. It seems like you got a bit of a reacceleration in total yields in Intermodal in the fourth quarter and I don't know if that has any impact by the Port of New York being shut down for a couple of weeks and maybe seeing a little bit more domestic growth and international growth. But just maybe want to get a sense of what the puts and takes to yields are as you lap that Maersk contract this year?

好的，這很有幫助，謝謝。那再把話題切回聯運，我想了解一下，馬士基的可比基期消化後，可能會如何影響聯運單位收益（yield）。看起來你們第四季聯運總體單位收益有些再加速，我不確定這是否受到紐約港停擺幾週的影響，導致國內成長與國際成長的組合略有變化。但我想請你們談談，今年在消化馬士基合約的可比基期時，影響單位收益的利多與利空因素會是什麼？

I think the big driver has been the value that we are creating and what we mentioned earlier about we are not pricing for volume. We are pricing to make a profit here. And with the service that Oscar mentioned that he is providing here where we are in the 90-plus% and on time as defined as available to our customers in both our premium Intermodal products and approaching that in our regular Intermodal products has made a difference in the marketplace.

我認為最大的驅動因素是我們正在創造的價值，以及我們先前提到的：我們不是為了量而定價。我們定價是為了在這裡獲利。而且如Oscar提到的服務水準，我們在優質聯運產品上準點率達到90%以上（以「可供客戶使用」作為準時定義），一般聯運產品也正接近這個水準，這已在市場上產生差異。

I think the third thing that has happened for us is where in our highway to rail conversions we have a proprietary model that we can use with our customers to model what their transportation flows are and can demonstrate how we can save money and create value for the customers. That has been a very positive experience for us.

我認為第三個因素是，在公路轉鐵路（highway to rail）的轉換上，我們有一套專有模型，可與客戶一起模擬其運輸流向，並展示我們如何為客戶節省成本、創造價值。這對我們而言是非常正面的經驗。

Okay, so you are getting that benefit from a lot of different factors. Okay, that's very helpful. Thanks for the time, guys. I appreciate it.

了解，所以你們是從許多不同因素中獲得這些效益。好的，這很有幫助。謝謝你們的時間，各位。感謝。

Chris Ceraso, Credit Suisse.

Chris Ceraso，瑞士信貸。

Not to harp on this, but just to clarify one last thing on the coal pricing, you said that the book of export thermal now is priced if I'm remembering this right -- that repriced on January 1. So maybe we haven't seen the effect of that in the numbers yet. Is there going to be any kind of a step down in the RPU from the Q4 yield that we saw in coal to Q1?

不是要一直追問這點，但我想最後再釐清一次煤炭定價：你說出口動力煤（export thermal）目前這本合約的價格—如果我沒記錯—是在1月1日重新定價的，所以也許我們還沒在數字中看到其影響。那麼，煤炭業務中我們在第四季看到的每單位收入（RPU）從Q4到Q1會不會出現某種「階梯式下滑」？

The thermal coal did not reprice on January 1. Thermal coal had been -- that I am speaking of has been under contract for some period of time. What you may end up seeing though in the overall coal is export side of the business is slightly down in the first quarter.

動力煤並沒有在1月1日重新定價。我所談的動力煤—已經在合約之下有一段時間了。不過，你可能會看到整體煤炭中，出口端業務在第一季略有下滑。

Okay, yes, I apologize, I was referring to the export book, so there will be some step down in export thermal for Q1?

好的，是的，抱歉，我指的是出口合約本（export book），所以第一季出口動力煤會有一些下滑嗎？

Could be, yes.

有可能，會的。

Then just as a follow-up, you mentioned a few times in your breakdown or the outlook in the positive side of the ledger, the crude and energy-related, can you just help us size that maybe give us an idea of what the total revenue was in crude and drilling-related equipment and materials in 2012 and what you think that goes to roughly in 2013?

那再追問一下，你在拆解或展望中多次提到正面因素中的原油與能源相關業務，你能否幫我們量化一下？例如，2012年原油以及鑽井相關設備與材料的總營收大約是多少？你認為2013年大致會到多少？

I don't want to give you a specific number on that because you can pick up the volume from the AAR data and then divide it into it and know what our revenue is between us and our customers and that wouldn't be right for them.

我不想給你一個具體數字，因為你可以從AAR數據取得運量，再把它拆分計算，推算出我們與客戶之間的營收，而那樣對他們並不合適。

I will tell you that we are averaging between seven and nine trains of crude a week. We expect that that will increase in 2013. Those numbers I gave you there were what was happening in the fourth quarter. Toward the end of the fourth quarter I would tell you that in energy and petroleum-related products, our frac sand business is up. We have an announcement of one ethylene cracker being located on CSX, and possibly a second one. We have two fractionators that will be coming online in the first quarter in West Virginia.

我可以告訴你，我們平均每週有7到9列原油列車。我們預期2013年這會增加。我剛才給你的數字是第四季的情況。到第四季末我會說，在能源與石油相關產品方面，我們的壓裂砂（frac sand）業務在成長。我們已宣布有一座乙烯裂解廠（ethylene cracker）將設在CSX沿線，並且可能還會有第二座。我們在西維吉尼亞州有兩座分餾裝置（fractionators）將在第一季上線。

So petroleum-related products for us in 2013 I think is going to be a very positive number.

所以我認為，對我們而言，2013年的石油相關產品將會是一個非常正面的數字。

The seven and nine trains per week, is that something that doubles in 2013 or not that big of an increase?

每週7到9列車，這在2013年會翻倍嗎？還是不會增加到那麼多？

I don't want to go there.

我不想去那裡。

Okay, thank very much.

好的，非常感謝。

John Larkin, Stifel Nicolaus.

John Larkin，Stifel Nicolaus。

Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. It seems like CSX is doing a better job than perhaps some of the other class ones in matching resources with changes in traffic and changes in traffic mix. I'm just wondering how organizationally you approach that. Do you have a SWAT team in the operating department that focuses on that and is constantly monitoring events and tweaking resource allocations to different divisions and so forth? How does that work internally so well?

早安，各位先生。感謝讓我提問。看起來 CSX 在因應運量變化與運量結構變化、並使資源配置相匹配方面，做得比其他一些一級鐵路公司更好。我想請教你們在組織上是如何做到的。你們營運部門是否有一個 SWAT 小組專注於此，持續監控事件並微調對各事業部等的資源配置？內部是如何運作，才能做得這麼好？

John, it's Oscar. This is a really novel item and you might be surprised and shocked to hear that. But I think the way we do it is a combined group of our senior leaders in both the sales and marketing organization and an operations meeting on a regular basis discussing the trends and making the appropriate adjustments very quickly. It is as simple as that, frankly, and they're doing a great job of it.

John，我是 Oscar。這點其實很新穎，你可能會驚訝、甚至震驚地聽到。但我認為我們的做法，就是由銷售與行銷組織以及營運端的資深領導團隊共同組成，在例行的營運會議中討論趨勢，並非常迅速地做出適當調整。坦白說，就這麼簡單，而他們在這方面做得非常好。

And we're willing to take some risks. If we look and see the thing might be moving in a negative direction in a given market, we tend to move quickly on it rather than wait to see it evolve.

而且我們願意承擔一些風險。如果我們觀察到某個市場可能朝負面方向發展，我們往往會迅速採取行動，而不是等它自己演變。

We can always get better forecasts from sales and marketing. I've just got to say that.

我們總是可以從銷售與行銷那邊拿到更好的預測。我只是得這麼說。

Great job on that front nonetheless. As far as the balance sheet is concerned, you've got a debt to total cap ratio somewhere just a tad over 52% or so. That's a little bit higher than some of the other railroads. Do you feel comfortable with that and is that a range that you can live with this year, next year, and beyond? Do you think with that kind of leverage the Board is in a position to reauthorize another share repurchase?

不過你們在這方面仍然做得很棒。就資產負債表而言，你們的負債占總資本比率大約略高於 52%。這比其他一些鐵路公司稍微高一點。你們對此感到安心嗎？這會是你們今年、明年以及更長期都能接受的區間嗎？以這樣的槓桿水準，你認為董事會是否有條件重新授權另一輪庫藏股回購？

Starting with the share repurchase question, we are in conjunction with the strategic plan also going to review the Board our share repurchase plans going forward and we will update you once we have a decision around that.

先從庫藏股回購的問題開始，我們會配合策略計畫，一併向董事會檢視未來的股票回購規劃；一旦就此做出決定，我們會再向各位更新。

In regards to the debt level, I think what we have said is that we are targeting kind of the upper spectrum of a BBB in a BBB area and I think also right now from where we have been, an improving credit profile. So we might be perhaps a little bit more leveraged than the other railroads but we think that being in that upper end of BBB is the right place to be. We think we generally trade -- our debt generally trades a little bit higher than what our rating is. So we think we are in a pretty good place.

至於負債水準，我想我們先前說過，我們的目標大致是 BBB 等級區間中偏上緣的位置；而且就目前而言，相較於過去，我們的信用體質正在改善。所以我們的槓桿可能確實比其他鐵路公司略高一些，但我們認為處於 BBB 上緣是合適的位置。我們認為我們的債券通常的交易水準——我們的債務通常以略高於評等所反映的水準在交易。因此我們覺得目前的位置相當不錯。

And as we think about the share repurchase programs and sizing of that, I think predominantly we want to use free cash flow but if there is balance sheet capacity that we can use within the context of an improving credit profile, we are certainly going to do that as well.

另外，談到股票回購計畫及其規模，我想我們主要希望使用自由現金流；但如果在信用體質改善的前提下，資產負債表仍有可運用的容量，我們當然也會加以運用。

Thanks for the answers.

謝謝你們的回答。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Securities.

Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Securities。

Good morning. Nobody has asked about stockpiles, so I wondered if you could just kind of give us an update on where those stand in your service territory?

早安。還沒有人問到庫存堆置（stockpiles），所以我想請你們更新一下，在你們服務區域內目前的情況如何？

Yes, you know in the past we've been giving you days per burn and that's all over the place because of how it's figured. In the South, utility stockpiles continue to be high. In fact, they are growing to some extent. It's being driven by electrical demand and the Southeastern United States is down about 1.2%.

好的，你知道過去我們一直用「可燃用天數」（days per burn）來提供資訊，但因為計算方式的關係，那個數字波動很大。在南部，公用事業的庫存堆置仍然偏高。事實上，在某種程度上還在增加。這主要是由用電需求所驅動，而美國東南部的用電需求約下降 1.2%。

The second factor that's driving it is these low natural gas prices which are staying low and therefore gas is being dispatched ahead of coal.

第二個驅動因素是天然氣價格偏低，而且仍維持低檔，因此在調度上天然氣會優先於煤炭。

In the North, our utilities have slightly higher than normal stockpiles and in the mid-Atlantic, they are about where they need to be in terms of the size of stockpiles. Does that help you?

在北部，我們的公用事業庫存略高於正常水準；而在大西洋中部地區，庫存規模大致在其所需的水準。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yes and I was just curious in terms of the 5% to 10% decline in the thermal coal guidance that you provided, what are you assuming in terms of underlying generation demand?

有的。另外我想請教，針對你們提供的動力煤（thermal coal）指引下滑 5% 到 10%，你們對於基礎發電需求的假設是什麼？

Underlying generation demand will be -- the assumption in our plan is flat.

基礎發電需求——我們計畫中的假設是持平。

Okay, thank you, that's helpful. That's all for me.

好的，謝謝，這很有幫助。我這邊就到這裡。

Ben Hartford, Robert W. Baird.

Ben Hartford，Robert W. Baird。

This is Ken on for Ben. I had a couple questions on the domestic intermodal side. What are your guy's expectations in terms of container count adds for 2013?

我是 Ken，代 Ben 提問。我有幾個關於國內聯運（domestic intermodal）的問題。你們對 2013 年貨櫃數量增加（container count adds）的預期是什麼？

We are not planning on adding to our domestic container fleet in 2013.

我們在 2013 年沒有計畫增加國內貨櫃車隊的規模。

Okay, then in terms of pricing is sort of the pricing in line with truck expectations more in like the 2% to 3% range or do you think that you can sort of recapture some of the historical discount?

好的，那在定價方面，你們的定價是否會更貼近卡車運輸的預期、也就是大約 2% 到 3% 的區間？還是你們認為可以收復一些歷史折扣？

Well, the historical discount over the past few years has become smaller and smaller as a percent of the total transportation costs. But I think you can expect to see our pricing for intermodal stay in that 2% to 3% range.

過去幾年，所謂的歷史折扣占整體運輸成本的比例已經愈來愈小。但我認為你可以預期我們的聯運定價會維持在 2% 到 3% 的區間。

Okay. Thank you, guys.

好的。謝謝各位。

Jason Seidl, Dahlman Rose.

Jason Seidl，Dahlman Rose。

Good morning, everyone. First off, Oscar, great job on the safety front. That was impressive for the quarter.

各位早安。首先，Oscar，你們在安全方面做得很出色。這一季的表現令人印象深刻。

My question, it's really for Fred. Fred, just as I go through the sort of puts and takes 2012 versus 2013, if I am reading it right from what you guys said it looks like you got $50 million of incentive comp headwind. You got about a $50 million differential from Sun Rail. And you mentioned about you are going to see $20 million of labor per quarter plus we layer on top of that you are looking at about $130 million in productivity savings. Am I missing anything in the puts or takes for the cost side?

我的問題主要是問 Fred。Fred，當我在梳理 2012 對比 2013 的各項增減因素時，如果我對你們剛才所說的理解正確，看起來你們有 5,000 萬美元的激勵薪酬（incentive comp）逆風。Sun Rail 方面大約有 5,000 萬美元的差異。你也提到每季會看到約 2,000 萬美元的勞動成本，此外你們還預期約 1.3 億美元的生產力節省。在成本端的增減因素上，我是否漏掉了什麼？

I think those are the key things that we have outlined. Obviously with also the headwind that we are facing on the top line in terms of both the utility coal side and what we are facing both on the volume side on export and the fact that we have been able -- we have had to reduce our rates on the export side as well.

我認為你提到的就是我們已經說明的關鍵事項。當然，還有我們在營收端面臨的逆風，包括公用事業煤炭，以及出口在運量面所面臨的情況，還有我們在出口端也不得不調降運價的事實。

So I think you got the cost side, the key drivers on the cost side right. Then you also have the top line.

所以我認為你把成本端的關鍵驅動因素抓得很準。然後你還要把營收端也納入考量。

Okay, so there is a modest negative cost headwind as I calculate it and then whatever the topline does, it does.

好的，所以照我計算，成本端有一個溫和的負面逆風，然後營收端就看它怎麼走。

Right, correct.

對，沒錯。

Okay, perfect. That was my only question. Guys, I appreciate the time as always.

好的，完美。這就是我唯一的問題。各位，一如既往，感謝撥冗。

David Vernon, Sanford Bernstein.

David Vernon，Sanford Bernstein。

Good morning, just a follow-up on some of the steel and frac sand volumes specifically. Are you seeing those volumes trend a little bit weaker here in the first half of the year as rig and well counts have slowed down a little bit in the Marcellus and the Utica, or is that stuff remaining strong for you?

早安，想就鋼材與壓裂砂（frac sand）運量做個追問。隨著 Marcellus 與 Utica 地區的鑽機數與井數稍有放緩，您是否看到今年上半年這些運量走勢略為轉弱，還是對你們而言仍維持強勁？

Well, we saw a some decline in the second half on the frac sand going in. But what has happened for CSX is as that drilling count granted being down has moved from the east side of Pennsylvania to the west side, it's been more conducive to our network and so are frac sand as a whole is holding up reasonably well.

我們確實看到下半年壓裂砂的進貨量有些下滑。但對 CSX 而言，鑽井數雖然下降，卻從賓州東部移往西部，這對我們的路網更有利，因此整體壓裂砂表現仍算相當穩健。

Okay, and just as a quick follow-up, with the length of haul increase on the domestic, is that a change in type of coal? Is it the Illinois Basin coming in perhaps going into a plant that used to be taking PRB or is it just the ebbs and flows across the network?

了解，另外快速追問一下，國內煤的平均運距拉長，這是煤種改變所致嗎？例如伊利諾盆地（Illinois Basin）的煤可能進入原本使用 PRB 的電廠，還是只是路網上的此消彼長？

Some of it is Illinois Basin coal but it's not going into plants that took PRB. It was going into plants that took Central app and the rest of it has just been the ordering patterns of the utilities fulfilling their coal contracts.

其中一部分確實是伊利諾盆地煤，但並不是送往原本使用 PRB 的電廠。它是送往原本使用中阿帕拉契亞（Central App）的電廠，其餘則只是公用事業依其煤炭合約履約的下單模式所致。

Just fulfilling the coal contracts. Okay, great. That's my two. Thanks very much.

就是在履行煤炭合約。好的，很棒。我就兩個問題。非常感謝。

Jeff Kaufman, Sterne, Agee.

Jeff Kaufman，Sterne, Agee。

Good morning, Sal Vitale on for Jeff. Just had a quick question, just a clarification on -- you mentioned that some of the reasons why RPU for coal was flat in 4Q was number one, you mentioned the escalator. And then you mentioned the positive mix impact of longer haul. Can you isolate excluding those two factors what would RPU have been?

早安，我是 Sal Vitale，代 Jeff 發問。我有個簡短問題想釐清——您提到第四季煤炭每單位收入（RPU）持平的原因之一是您提到的調價條款（escalator）。另外也提到運距拉長帶來的正向組合影響。若排除這兩項因素，RPU 會是多少？能否拆解出來？

I can't right now, no.

我現在沒辦法。

Okay, I was just thinking just by order of magnitude is it really significant or is it just a couple of hundred basis points perhaps?

好的，我只是想就量級判斷一下，這影響真的很顯著嗎？還是可能只是幾百個基點左右？

I don't know.

我不知道。

Okay, and then just looking forward to 2013, you also mentioned that export coal pricing is still weak and yet you mentioned that coal RPU for 2013 could be relatively flat. The main offsets there are, what, the escalators and the fact that you have thermal coal under contract?

好的。再看 2013 年展望，您也提到出口煤定價仍偏弱，但同時又提到 2013 年煤炭 RPU 可能相對持平。主要的抵銷因素是什麼——調價條款，以及你們有合約在身的動力煤（thermal coal）嗎？

Well, what I hope I said was that export coal pricing we think for the full year is going to be flat. The first quarter you may find it down slightly mainly because we had a very strong first quarter last year in our coal pricing and you won't see that totally reflected in the first quarter this year.

我希望我剛才說的是，我們認為出口煤定價就全年而言會持平。第一季你可能會看到略為下滑，主要是因為去年第一季我們的煤炭定價非常強，今年第一季不會完全反映出同樣的水準。

Okay, so just to clarify, you didn't intend to say that coal RPU, overall coal RPU for the 2013 would be relatively flat?

好的，所以再釐清一下，您並不是要說 2013 年煤炭 RPU——整體煤炭 RPU——會相對持平嗎？

Yes.

是的。

He did intend to.

他確實是那個意思。

I did, for the whole year.

我確實是指全年。

You did? Okay, thank you. Thank you for the clarification.

您是指全年會持平？好的，謝謝。謝謝您釐清。

Peter Nesvold, Jefferies & Co.

Peter Nesvold，Jefferies & Co.。

Good morning. First just a clarification, so you -- your outlook for export volumes are 40 tons -- 40 million tons. That would be down about 16% from 47.8 million for the year. You also said you're going to hold the line on pricing. So do you think the market is down 16% or is there some sort of temporary market share losses in there based on price?

早安。先釐清一下，你們對出口運量的展望是 40 tons——4,000 萬噸。相較全年 4,780 萬噸約下滑 16%。你們也說會守住價格底線。所以你認為市場本身下滑 16%，還是其中包含因價格因素造成的短期市占流失？

I think the US market is down. You know, it's difficult to assess what the Chinese will do here particularly after the Communist Congress party is meeting in March. But that's -- the export coal number is just reflecting what the US is.

我認為是美國市場下滑。你知道，很難評估中國接下來會怎麼做，特別是共產黨代表大會在三月開會之後。但——出口煤的數字只是反映美國市場的狀況。

Understood, okay. Then just to my follow-up question, so longer-term and we look at domestic coal volumes down maybe 50% from the peak, some of that clearly is permanent changes in Central app, Northern app.

了解，好的。接著追問，長期來看，國內煤運量可能較高峰下滑約 50%，其中一部分顯然是中阿帕拉契亞、北阿帕拉契亞（Northern App）的永久性變化。

Any sense for longer-term, so we sort of get back to a normalized environment on industrial production, electricity consumption, natural gas prices, how much of those losses do you think eventually come back as we get into a normalized environment?

就長期而言，當我們回到較正常的環境——工業生產、用電量、天然氣價格都正常化——你覺得這些流失的量有多少最終會回來？

I think it's going to be difficult to assess for multiple reasons. First, there's going to be some impacts that there's a lot of different guesses now exactly what they're going to be as 2015 kicks in.

我認為基於多個原因，這會很難評估。第一，隨著 2015 年到來，會有一些影響，而目前對其具體影響的猜測非常多。

Secondly is as long as we have gas prices in this $3, $3 plus range, it is going to be difficult for coal to recover back to the levels that you and I are talking about them going to.

第二，只要天然氣價格維持在 3 美元、3 美元以上這個區間，煤炭要回升到你我所談的那些水準就會很困難。

Okay, but if the longer-term curve were implying $4 -- what I am trying to do is separate gas prices from EPA regulations and other sort of structural changes in the market. One could obviously argue that nat gas is structural, but if we were to separate nat gas from it, any kind of perspective on that?

好的，但如果長期曲線暗示的是 4 美元——我想做的是把天然氣價格因素，與 EPA 法規及其他市場結構性變化分開來看。當然也有人會說天然氣本身就是結構性因素，但如果我們先把天然氣抽離，您對其餘因素有什麼看法嗎？

Peter, I guess -- this is Michael. We think a lot of the plants that would have been shut down in 2015 due to EPA regulations have largely been shut down by the low gas prices. So really accelerated what we expected would happen three years from now.

Peter，我想——我是 Michael。我們認為，原本會因 EPA 法規在 2015 年關停的許多電廠，已經在低天然氣價格下大多關掉了。所以其實是把我們原本預期三年後才會發生的事情加速了。

On the longer-term basis, I think there is an issue of how do we make sure we turn the lights on so we think some of those remaining coal-fired plants are going to be part of the energy mix in the eastern half of the United States.

從更長期的角度，我認為還有一個問題是：我們要如何確保電力供應不中斷；因此我們認為，在美國東半部的能源組合中，一些仍在運轉的燃煤電廠將會繼續扮演一部分角色。

Okay, all right, thank you.

好的，明白，謝謝。

Matt Troy, Susquehanna International.

Matt Troy，Susquehanna International。

Good morning. A question on Intermodal, kind of a bright spot to move away from coal. We all know the incrementals are good if you add a couple boxes and a double stack or if you make a train longer.

早安。我想問聯運（Intermodal），算是從煤炭話題轉開的一個亮點。我們都知道，如果多加幾個箱、做雙層堆疊（double stack）或把列車拉長，增量效益會很好。

I was just wondering structurally over the next two, three, four years as you begin to harvest the investments you have made in building out the network, is it reasonable to assume when I think about segment margins that Intermodal could begin to approach and one day surpass corporate average? I know this is a business historically where margins have been thinner, but obviously given the critical mass the industry and you folks have achieved, just wondering if it's reasonable to assume that that kind of inflection kind of turning the bars if you will is something that we could expect let's call it in the next couple of years?

我想問的是，從結構面看未來兩、三、四年，當你們開始收割先前擴建路網的投資成果時，若我從事業部門利潤率來思考，聯運是否有機會逐步接近、甚至有一天超過公司平均？我知道這個業務歷來利潤率較薄，但顯然隨著產業與你們達到的規模臨界點，我想確認是否合理預期這種拐點——如果你願意這麼說、把槓桿拉上來——可能在未來幾年內出現？

Matt, let me take this. This is Fredrik. I think overall as we look at the contribution of our different business segments, we try to stay away from talking too much about it but I do think that as we think about incrementally the margins on Intermodal, they are attractive and they are from an average -- plus or minus versus average, I think they are pretty close to it. I think the issue generally in Intermodal is that you need a lot of boxes to make up for a carload because the RPU is a third or so of a carload.

Matt，我來回答。我是 Fredrik。整體而言，當我們看各業務部門的貢獻時，我們會盡量避免談太多細節；但我確實認為，若從聯運的增量利潤率來看，它是有吸引力的，而且相對於平均水準——高於或低於平均——我認為其實相當接近。我認為聯運一般的問題在於，你需要很多箱量才能抵上一車皮貨（carload），因為每單位收入（RPU）大約只有車皮貨的三分之一左右。

But the margins on the traffic that we are getting because we are so focused on the pricing and making sure that every load that we carry carries its own weight is attractive. It is just you need a lot of boxes to make up for the carload decline.

但由於我們非常專注於定價，並確保我們承運的每一票貨都能自負其成本、各自貢獻利潤，因此我們目前取得的這些運量，其利潤率其實相當有吸引力。只是你需要很多箱量，才能彌補整車（carload）下滑的缺口。

Right, right, I guess my follow-up would be just more tactically near-term for Clarence, ex Maersk International Intermodal running closer to flat by my calculations. We have been destocking for some time now in the US economy; the numbers that you disclosed earlier certainly bear that out. Inventories remain on the lower side of what we would consider historically normal.

對，對，我想我接下來的追問會更偏向短期、戰術層面，想請教 Clarence：扣除馬士基（Maersk）之後，國際聯運（International Intermodal）依我計算大致接近持平。美國經濟去庫存已經持續一段時間；你們先前揭露的數據確實也印證了這點。庫存水位仍偏低，低於我們認為的歷史正常水準。

Given that we have run down for so long and the international business is somewhat -- I'm just curious what are you hearing from your customers about first quarter their intentions around shipping for Chinese New Year? Things slow down in a couple weeks here and there's not much time left thereafter in the first quarter. What are your conversations indicating about import intensions and what folks might be planning from an inventory perspective? Thank you.

鑑於我們已經去庫存這麼久，而國際業務也有點——我只是好奇，你們從客戶那邊聽到的情況是什麼？關於第一季、因應中國農曆新年，他們在出貨上的意圖如何？再過幾週這裡就會放緩，而第一季剩下的時間也不多了。你們的對話顯示，進口意向如何？從庫存角度來看，大家可能會怎麼規劃？謝謝。

When I talk to our steamship customers, they are singing the blues. It's a tough business for them to be in right now. They have to keep these vessels full. The fuel costs -- buffer fuel is still a problem for them. The largest trade lane in the world is down now, which is Asia to Europe, so the steamship business is tough right now.

我和我們的遠洋船公司客戶談的時候，他們都在唱衰、叫苦連天。他們現在所處的產業環境非常艱難。他們必須讓這些船舶保持滿載。燃油成本——緩衝燃油（buffer fuel）對他們來說仍然是個問題。全球最大的航線目前也在下滑，也就是亞洲到歐洲，所以遠洋航運業現在很辛苦。

As far as the Lunar New Year goes, it's early this year and we should have that behind us here by sometime in March I think is it that it will be behind us. I think you will see the business -- the International actual business start picking up for the spring.

至於農曆新年，今年比較早，我想大概到三月某個時候就會過完、影響也會告一段落。我認為你會看到業務——國際實際業務在春季開始回升。

Okay, I look forward to that. Thank you.

好的，我很期待看到那樣的情況。謝謝。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

Walter Spracklin，RBC 資本市場。

Good morning. Just a follow-up here for Clarence. When I look at your Q1 outlook, you mentioned 57% that's positive. Then I listened to Fredrik on when he's talking a little bit on the full year talking a bit more broad-based growth. I guess am I to infer that you do see the second half or even Q2 onwards sequentially improving versus your Q1 outlook?

早安。我這裡想再追問 Clarence 一個問題。我看你們第一季展望時，你提到有 57% 是正向的。接著我聽 Fredrik 談到全年時，提到的是更廣泛的成長。所以我是否可以推論：相較於你們第一季的展望，你們確實看到下半年、甚至從第二季起會逐季改善？

And if that's the case, Clarence, which areas do you think where you might be a little bit negative on right now would you see being more positive as we get through the year?

如果是這樣，Clarence，你認為目前你們可能偏負面的哪些領域，會在今年進行到後段時轉為更正向？

My own view of the economy is not dissimilar than what Michael has said publicly, and that is we should have slow, steady continuous growth. There are some models, economic models, that point to a much stronger second half. Now I am an optimist and I would like to believe those models but I'm going to stick with slow, steady growth here.

我對經濟的看法，和 Michael 公開說過的並沒有太大不同，也就是我們應該會看到緩慢、穩健且持續的成長。有一些經濟模型指出下半年會強得多。我本身是樂觀派，也希望相信那些模型，但我還是會以緩慢、穩健的成長作為基準。

I think some of the markets where you could see possible improvements for us would be in the metals market. I think you could see some improvement for us in our chemicals particularly the petroleum side of our business going forward. I think there could be opportunities in the construction sector to see more growth. Housing starts could approach 850, maybe a little higher than that 850,000, maybe a little higher than that here in the year.

我認為有些市場可能會出現對我們有利的改善，例如金屬市場。我認為我們的化學品業務，特別是石油相關的部分，未來也可能有所改善。我認為在建築領域也可能有更多成長機會。今年住宅開工數可能接近 85 萬戶，或許會略高於 85 萬戶，可能還會再高一些。

Until we get housing back and automotive back at the same time, I think it's going to be difficult to see the economy growing much faster than the 2% plus.

在住宅與汽車兩者同時回到較好的水準之前，我認為經濟要成長得比 2% 多很多會很困難。

Regardless of what the economy does, if you take all of our non-coal businesses as a group, we expect we will outperform car load growth against whenever the economy turns out to be. Is that correct?

不論經濟表現如何，如果把我們所有非煤炭業務合在一起看，我們預期我們的整車裝載量（carload）成長表現會優於整體市場的成長，無論最後經濟結果如何。這樣說對嗎？

That is correct.

沒錯。

Okay, just a second follow-up question here for you, Oscar. Obviously when we exclude some of the let's call it the nonrecurring items that occurred in 2012 and looked at the OR given on a year-over-year basis, we did see a decline in the OR as a result of the significant decline you saw in coal.

好的，我再追問第二個問題，想請教 Oscar。很明顯地，當我們排除 2012 年發生的一些、姑且稱之為非經常性項目後，並以年對年來看營運比率（OR），我們確實看到 OR 下滑，原因是你們煤炭業務出現顯著下跌。

Arguably some of that coal was unexpected in nature and didn't give you, Oscar, the opportunity that you might have had had you had a crystal ball to really reengineer your network to accommodate that. Clarence is now giving you heads-up that thermal is going to be down 5% to 10% and export is going to be down 18%.

可以說其中一部分煤炭下滑帶有意外性，讓你（Oscar）沒有機會——如果你有水晶球的話——去真正重新設計你們的路網以因應。Clarence 現在已經先提醒你：動力煤（thermal）將下滑 5% 到 10%，出口煤將下滑 18%。

Given that outlook on coal again for this year, can you protect the OR versus this -- now that you might have a little bit more certainty around it or would we see another drag on the OR excluding those nonrecurring items in 2013?

在今年煤炭再次呈現這樣的展望下，你們能否守住 OR？——現在你們對情況可能更有把握——還是說在 2013 年、排除那些非經常性項目後，我們仍會看到 OR 再度受到拖累？

I'm trying to understand whether you are asking an OR guidance question, which I want to pass over to Fred very quickly, or if you are asking about our intent to continue our very productive and efficient way. So the answer to the latter is clearly within the coal fields by the way, we have done and have taken a lot of action already and over the past couple of years, we have anticipated some of the decline and have planned accordingly.

我想先確認你問的是 OR 指引的問題——如果是，我想很快把問題交給 Fred——或是你在問我們是否打算持續以非常高生產力、非常有效率的方式運作。如果是後者，答案很明確：順帶一提，在煤田相關業務上，我們已經採取了很多行動；過去幾年我們也預期到部分下滑，並已據此規劃。

And again -- but you got the export coal growth which is offsetting some of that and then you've got the Illinois Basin coal movement, which is helping us, so a lot of our expense is kind of moving in those areas.

另外——不過你也看到出口煤的成長在抵消其中一部分影響；再加上伊利諾盆地（Illinois Basin）的煤炭運輸量也在幫助我們，所以我們的許多成本其實是在那些區域間移動與調整。

So I think we've taken quite a bit of action. We will continue to do that but again, with regards to long-term overall, I think that is something for Fred.

所以我認為我們已經採取了相當多的行動。我們也會持續這麼做；但就整體長期而言，我認為那是 Fred 需要回答的部分。

Okay, so for Fred, then, is what Oscar is telling you -- when you pull that in, do you think that's enough to protect the OR this year?

好的，那我就問 Fred：把 Oscar 所說的這些納入考量後，你認為這足以在今年守住 OR 嗎？

Well, I think that is what we -- the guidance that we gave in the prepared remarks, is that's it is a little too early to tell where we're going to come out for the year on the OR. We certainly are used to as we also said -- we have done it for nine years in a row to improve our OR. But it's just too early at this point to tell. We'd certainly like to see it and we certainly overcame a lot of challenges in 2012 to be able to produce an improved OR but we'll see as we go along here to see how things materialize.

我想我們在事先準備的講稿裡給的指引是：現在要判斷全年 OR 最終會落在哪裡，還稍微太早。我們當然也很習慣——正如我們也提到的——我們已經連續九年改善 OR。但在這個時間點確實還太早下定論。我們當然希望能看到改善；而且我們在 2012 年克服了很多挑戰，仍然做出了更好的 OR，但接下來就要看事情如何發展、如何逐步成形。

Understood. Okay, thank you very much, guys.

了解。好的，非常感謝各位。

Keith Schoonmaker, Morningstar.

Keith Schoonmaker，Morningstar。

Good morning. I'd like to ask about growth initiatives. Of 2013 CapEx, about 16% looks budgeted for strategic growth initiatives but then emphasis called that on Intermodal growth. Is this yards or double stacked clearance still but not containers? Could you add some detail to this investment please?

早安。我想詢問成長計畫。在 2013 年資本支出（CapEx）中，大約 16% 看起來是編列給策略性成長計畫，但重點又特別點名在聯運（Intermodal）成長。這指的是場站（yards）或雙層堆疊淨空（double-stacked clearance）之類的投資，而不是貨櫃本身嗎？能否請你補充一些這項投資的細節？

The growth is essentially yards for Intermodal, terminals, and some double stacked clearance. There's a small amount I think for boxes as well but it's a relatively small amount. So it's really to support the long-term opportunities that we see in Intermodal and the preponderance of capital for Intermodal goes into expanding the terminal capacity but we are in the midst of a national Gateway initiative where we do have to spend some capital to finalize the double stacked clearance that we need on our network. But after the next two or three years, that would be completed.

成長主要來自聯運（Intermodal）的場站、貨運站，以及部分雙層堆疊淨空工程。我想也有少量是用於箱體（貨櫃）方面，但金額相對不大。所以這些投資主要是為了支撐我們在聯運領域看到的長期機會；聯運資本支出的主要部分用於擴充場站容量，但我們也正推動一項全國性的 Gateway 計畫，必須投入一些資本，完成我們網路所需的雙層堆疊淨空。不過在接下來兩到三年之後，這部分就會完成。

At this time, how much is left not yet cleared for double stack that needs to be?

目前還有多少路段尚未完成雙層堆疊淨空、仍需要處理？

I think if you look on a volume basis, I think we are close to a little bit over 80%. I think that as you complete a couple more areas over the next few years, you will be closer to 90%. And that's really where I think we are going to stay because I think the remaining obstacles are big enough where there's not -- we're not going to do that.

我想如果以運量來看，我們已接近、略高於 80%。我認為在未來幾年再完成幾個區段後，會更接近 90%。而那大概就是我們會維持的水準，因為我認為剩下的障礙規模夠大，所以不會——我們不會去做那部分。

We just cleared this year -- the fourth quarter of this year, Massachusetts and we are double stacked cleared from Chambersburg, Pennsylvania over to Chicago we will be double stack clear in the first quarter. The only real link we have to get yet is the ports in Virginia and Baltimore and Wilmington over to Chambersburg cleared yet.

我們今年——今年第四季已完成麻薩諸塞州的淨空；從賓夕法尼亞州錢伯斯堡（Chambersburg）到芝加哥，我們會在第一季完成雙層堆疊淨空。目前唯一還需要打通的關鍵連結，是維吉尼亞、巴爾的摩與威爾明頓等港口到錢伯斯堡之間的淨空尚未完成。

Second, is any material investment needed to serve the new energy markets or is that pretty low cost to serve?

第二個問題：為了服務新的能源市場，是否需要任何重大投資，還是說服務成本相當低？

It's pretty low cost to get into it. It had no significant investments.

切入的成本相當低。沒有任何重大投資。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Justin Yagerman, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Justin Yagerman。

Looks like I am the caboose today. I wanted to dig in for a second, Clarence. You gave some good color around the export coal side and I was curious what the duration of those contracts were going to be on the thermal side, the 20 million tons, and what -- when they were signed? Was that a Q4 or an early Q1 event?

看起來我今天是最後一位。Clarence，我想再深入問一下。你對出口煤的部分提供了很好的補充說明，我想了解熱煤（thermal）那邊、2,000 萬噸的合約期限會是多久，以及——這些合約是什麼時候簽的？是第四季，還是第一季初的事件？

Justin, some of those contracts were actually signed in 2011. Some were signed throughout the year in 2012. They are constantly rolling over, if you will. We were fortunate enough to get some back in the first part of 2012 when the pricing was much better than what it is now. But it's a constant rolling over of those thermal contracts.

Justin，其中一些合約其實是在 2011 年簽的。有些是在 2012 年全年陸續簽訂。如果你願意這麼說，它們是持續滾動續約的。我們很幸運在 2012 年上半年拿到一些合約，當時的價格比現在好得多。但這些熱煤合約就是持續滾動更新。

Okay, I guess I was under the impression that most of them were coming up at the end of 2012. But maybe it was a bit more spread out.

了解，我原本以為大多數合約是在 2012 年底到期。但也許到期時間分布得更分散一些。

And is met still on a quarterly basis as we look out or are you doing most of that now on a spot basis? How are you looking at the met side of the export business?

另外，冶金煤（met）目前仍是以季度合約為主嗎，還是你們現在多半改做現貨？你們如何看待出口業務中冶金煤這一塊？

It's mostly on a quarterly basis with some on a spot basis, but mostly quarterly.

大多是以季度為主，也有一部分是現貨，但主要是季度。

Okay, then Intermodal, you talked a little bit on the yield side on the international, but just curious, you gave some volume expectations around domestic. You are lapping the win of the Maersk business. What do you expect that growth rate to look like as we move through 2013 on the International Intermodal side volumes?

好，那聯運方面，你談到國際業務的收益率（yield）一些情況，但我也想問一下，你對國內業務給了一些運量預期。你們正在與馬士基（Maersk）業務勝出所帶來的基期效應相比較。那麼在 2013 年的國際聯運（International Intermodal）運量方面，你預期成長率會是什麼樣子？

I think that the last FTR data that I saw showed imports around the 3 -- was it 3% to 4%? Yes, about 3% to 4%.

我記得我看到的最新 FTR 數據顯示，進口大約在 3——是 3% 到 4% 嗎？對，大約 3% 到 4%。

Okay, so kind of in line with market growth on imports?

好的，所以大致與進口市場的成長一致？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, just last one. I was curious, Michael, we haven't heard much on the regulatory side but I think our newly reelected President has been kind of vocal on the coal side of things in terms of how he views energy in the world.

好，最後一個問題。Michael，我想問一下，我們在監管面聽到的不多，但我想我們剛連任的總統在煤炭議題上相當直言，談到他如何看待全球能源。

How has that factored into your view and then how does that inform the regulatory atmosphere in Washington as you think about your relationship to those businesses?

這點如何影響你們的看法？以及當你們思考與這些業務的關係時，這又如何影響你們對華盛頓監管氛圍的判斷？

Well, I know the President has said that climate change is an issue he does want to address. As you well know, the EPA has been fairly aggressive with its regulatory actions that are limiting the usage of coal. My belief is we would not see any legislation that would further inhibit coal being passed with this Congress because I don't think the appetite in the Congress will be to put any kind of a carbon tax or other type of legislation like that.

我知道總統曾表示，氣候變遷是他想要處理的議題。如你所知，環保署（EPA）在監管行動上相當積極，這些行動正在限制煤炭的使用。我的看法是，在本屆國會之下，我們不會看到任何會進一步抑制煤炭的立法獲得通過，因為我不認為國會有意願推動任何形式的碳稅或其他類似的立法。

Okay, I appreciate the time, guys. Thanks so much for taking my calls.

好的，感謝各位撥冗。非常感謝接聽我的提問。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us and we look forward to seeing you next quarter.

感謝各位參與，我們期待下個季度再見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話。各位可以掛線。