CSX Corporation (CSX) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation first-quarter 2012 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call all participants will be in a listen-only mode. For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation. Sir, you may begin.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2012 年第一季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。在本次會議期間，所有與會者將以僅聆聽模式參與。接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。David Baggs 先生，CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Lori, and good morning, everyone. And again, welcome to CSX Corporation's first-quarter 2012 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we'll review this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the Investor section. In addition, following the presentation this morning, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on the website.

謝謝妳，Lori，各位早安。再次歡迎各位參加 CSX Corporation 2012 年第一季財報簡報。我們今天上午將回顧的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可於 CSX.com 網站的投資人專區取得。此外，今天上午簡報結束後，網站上也將提供網路直播與播客的重播。

Here representing CSX this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, our Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer.

今天上午代表 CSX 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；首席銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。

Now, before we begin the formal part of the program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statement and risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報以及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性聲明。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁中的公司揭露事項。該揭露內容辨識了前瞻性聲明，以及可能導致實際表現與這些聲明所預期結果出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With nearly 30 analysts covering CSX, I would ask as a courtesy for everyone to follow-up questions. And with that pleased to turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

另外也提醒各位，在簡報結束時我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。由於有將近 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，敬請各位配合，將問題以追問方式進行。那麼，我很高興把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Well, thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Last evening CSX was pleased to report record financial results for the first quarter. Earnings per share were $0.43, up 23% from the same period last year. Despite significant weakness in utility coal we continue to see broad based revenue strength across nearly all of our markets. This led to a revenue growth of 6% to nearly $3 billion in the quarter.

謝謝你，David，各位早安。昨晚 CSX 很高興公布第一季創紀錄的財務成果。每股盈餘為 0.43 美元，較去年同期成長 23%。儘管公用事業用煤炭顯著疲弱，我們仍持續看到幾乎所有市場皆呈現廣泛的營收強勁。這使得本季營收成長 6%，接近 30 億美元。

Our team supported the revenue gains with excellent results in safety, service and productivity. These are the foundation of our business and our ability to drive value for both customers and shareholders. The strong revenues and operational results produced an 11% increase in first-quarter operating income versus the same period last year and a 140 basis point improvement in operating ratio. Both were first-quarter records and an indication of our commitment to producing strong results for our investors.

我們的團隊以在安全、服務與生產力方面的優異成果支撐了營收成長。這些是我們業務的基礎，也是我們為客戶與股東創造價值的能力所在。強勁的營收與營運成果，使第一季營業利益較去年同期增加 11%，營業比率改善 140 個基點。兩者皆為第一季紀錄，顯示我們致力於為投資人創造強勁成果。

With that, I'd like to turn the presentation over to Clarence Gooden for his sales and marketing review. Clarence?

接下來，我想把簡報交給 Clarence Gooden，請他進行銷售與行銷回顧。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Before I discuss the quarterly results in detail let me take you through our near-term outlook. Most key indicators we look at continue to project year-over-year growth in 2012, which supports our expectation that the second-quarter outlook is favorable for 58% of our volume and stable for 32% of our volume.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。在我詳細說明本季結果之前，先帶各位看一下我們的短期展望。我們觀察的大多數關鍵指標仍預示 2012 年將呈現年對年成長，這也支持我們的預期：第二季展望對我們 58% 的運量有利，對 32% 的運量則維持穩定。

Utility coal, which represents about 10% of CSX's volume, is the only market with an unfavorable outlook. However, with a growing economy, continued truck conversions from the highway and the on boarding of the new Maersk business, Intermodal is expected to continue leading our growth.

公用事業用煤炭約占 CSX 運量的 10%，是唯一展望不利的市場。然而，隨著經濟成長、持續有卡車運輸自公路轉換至鐵路，以及新 Maersk 業務的導入，預期聯運（Intermodal）將持續引領我們的成長。

In addition, the expanding industrial economy supports growth in our automotive and metals markets and stability in our chemicals market. Modest improvement in the housing and construction sector supports growth in our Forest Products business and a stable environment for emerging markets. While the overall agricultural sector is expected to be stable, we see upside in our Phosphate & Fertilizer market.

此外，擴張中的工業景氣支撐我們汽車與金屬市場的成長，以及化學品市場的穩定。住宅與建築產業的溫和改善，支撐我們林產品業務的成長，並為新興市場提供穩定環境。整體農業部門預期將維持穩定，但我們在磷酸鹽與肥料市場看到上行空間。

Finally, we expect stability in our Export & Industrial Coal business. This outlook is generally consistent with what we experienced during the first quarter which I will begin to review on the next slide.

最後，我們預期出口與工業用煤炭業務將維持穩定。此展望大致與我們第一季的經驗一致；我將從下一張投影片開始回顧。

CSX revenue increased 6% to nearly $3 billion in the first quarter. Starting with the left gold bar you can see that the volume gains of 1% drove year-over-year revenue growth of $26 million. Moving to the right, the combined effect of rate and mix accounted for $64 million of the increase reflecting yield gains across all three major markets as we continue to sell the value of rail transportation and the excellent value of CSX's service product.

CSX 第一季營收成長 6%，接近 30 億美元。從左側的金色長條開始，您可以看到運量增加 1%，帶動年對年營收成長 2,600 萬美元。往右看，運價與組合的綜合效果貢獻了 6,400 萬美元的增幅，反映我們持續在三大主要市場皆取得單位收益提升，因為我們持續銷售鐵路運輸的價值，以及 CSX 服務產品的卓越價值。

Overall pricing in excess of inflation more than offset the mix impact associated with the higher Intermodal growth and declining coal volume. Finally, as you look further to the right, increases in the price of fuel resulted in an additional $66 million of recovery in the quarter which helped to offset the impact of higher fuel costs.

整體而言，超過通膨的定價，足以抵銷因聯運成長較高與煤炭運量下滑所帶來的組合影響。最後，再往右看，燃料價格上升使本季額外回收 6,600 萬美元，有助於抵銷較高燃料成本的影響。

Now let's take a look at each of the major markets that we serve starting with coal. Coal revenue decreased 5% driven by weaknesses in the utility coal volume that more than offset the strength in Exports & Industrial Coal. Domestic utility tons declined 28% as overall electrical generation was down in the eastern United States.

現在讓我們看看我們服務的各主要市場，先從煤炭開始。煤炭營收下滑 5%，主因公用事業用煤炭運量疲弱，其影響超過出口與工業用煤炭的強勁表現。由於美國東部整體發電量下滑，國內公用事業用煤炭噸數下降 28%。

In addition, natural gas prices remained at low levels which led to the continued displacement of coal at some utilities. Partially offsetting this weakness industrial coal tons grew by 11% driven by increased domestic steel production while export coal tons grew 17% as demand was strong for US thermal coal shipments.

此外，天然氣價格維持在低檔，導致部分公用事業持續以天然氣取代煤炭。部分抵銷此疲弱的是，受國內鋼鐵產量增加帶動，工業用煤炭噸數成長 11%；而出口煤炭噸數成長 17%，因美國動力煤（thermal coal）出貨需求強勁。

Looking ahead, demand for export coal should remain strong with an increase in demand for thermal coal being offset by weakness in the metallurgical shipments. Overall, we still expect export volume similar to the 2011 levels.

展望未來，出口煤炭需求應可維持強勁；動力煤需求增加將被冶金煤（metallurgical）出貨疲弱所部分抵銷。整體而言，我們仍預期出口運量將與 2011 年水準相近。

In addition, strength in shipments of industrial coal is expected to continue due to the increased steel production. At the same time, domestic utility volumes are expected to face continued challenges due to the low natural gas prices, above normal inventory levels and environmental regulations. Headwinds should be the strongest in the second quarter and then moderate throughout the balance of the year.

此外，受鋼鐵產量增加帶動，工業用煤炭出貨的強勁預期將持續。同時，國內公用事業用煤炭運量預期仍將面臨挑戰，原因包括天然氣價格偏低、庫存水位高於常態，以及環境法規。逆風預期在第二季最為明顯，之後在全年其餘期間逐步緩和。

Now let's turn to our Intermodal results. Intermodal revenue increased 19% to $389 million versus 2011 driven by a 9% increase in volume and a 10% increase in revenue per unit. Domestic volume was up 9% setting a first-quarter record; strength was driven by highway to rail Intermodal conversion, the continued success of our UMAX interlined container program and new markets and lanes generating organic growth.

接著來看我們的聯運（Intermodal）成果。聯運營收較 2011 年成長 19% 至 3.89 億美元，主要由運量增加 9% 與每單位營收增加 10% 所帶動。國內運量成長 9%，創第一季紀錄；強勁表現來自公路轉鐵路的聯運轉換、我們 UMAX 聯運共線貨櫃計畫的持續成功，以及新市場與新路線帶來的有機成長。

International volume grew 9% driven by new business gained as a result of our portfolio of service and network offerings as well as the successful on boarding of the new Maersk traffic.

國際運量成長 9%，主要由於我們的服務與網路方案組合帶來的新業務，以及新 Maersk 貨量成功導入。

Turning to the revenue per unit, the 10% improvement versus the prior year was attributable to positive mix, improved pricing and higher fuel recoveries. Looking forward strategic investments such as the National Gateway Initiative and our Northwest Ohio terminal position CSX to compete for an estimated 9 million truckload opportunity in our service territory.

至於每單位營收，較前一年改善 10%，可歸因於有利的組合、定價改善以及較高的燃料回收。展望未來，諸如 National Gateway Initiative 與我們在俄亥俄州西北部的場站等策略性投資，將使 CSX 得以在我們的服務範圍內競逐估計 900 萬車次的卡車貨運機會。

Our modern hub in Northwest Ohio improves transit times, increases capacity and expands our service offering by enabling connections between new and existing markets. For example, the transit time from Chicago to New York has improved by over a day. We expect healthy growth to continue long-term as new terminals such as Louisville and capacity expansions including Columbus and Charlotte drive highway to rail conversions.

我們位於俄亥俄州西北部的現代化樞紐可縮短運輸時間、提升運能，並透過促成新舊市場之間的連結來擴大我們的服務內容。例如，從芝加哥到紐約的運輸時間已縮短超過一天。我們預期在長期內將持續維持健康成長，因為路易維爾等新終端站，以及包括哥倫布與夏洛特在內的運能擴充，將推動公路轉鐵路的運輸轉換。

Turning to the next slide, let's look at our merchandise [mark]. Overall merchandise revenue increased 10% driven by a 3% volume growth and a 7% increase in revenue per unit reflecting increases across nearly all markets due to higher yields and higher fuel recovery. Metals and automotive shipments were key drivers of growth in the industrial sector. North American light vehicle production grew 15% in the quarter.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我們看看我們的一般貨運（merchandise）。整體一般貨運營收增加10%，主要受3%的運量成長與每單位營收增加7%所帶動；後者反映幾乎所有市場因收益率提高與燃油回收增加而帶來的提升。金屬與汽車運輸是工業部門成長的關鍵驅動因素。本季北美輕型車產量成長15%。

In addition, domestic steel production remained high due to strong demand from the automotive and the oil and gas industries. In the construction sector growth in building products was offset by a decline in aggregate shipments due to the completion of several stimulus projects.

此外，受汽車以及油氣產業強勁需求帶動，國內鋼鐵產量仍維持高檔。在建築部門，建材產品的成長被骨材（aggregate）運輸量下滑所抵銷，原因是多項刺激方案工程已完工。

In the agricultural sector volume decreased slightly in the quarter primarily due to a decline in phosphate shipments as buyers delayed purchases in expectation of moderating commodity prices. Export grain also declined due to more competitive pricing from other world producers and ethanol shipments softened as a result of lower gasoline demand.

在農業部門，本季運量小幅下降，主要因磷酸鹽出貨下滑；買方預期大宗商品價格將趨於溫和而延後採購。出口穀物亦因其他全球生產國報價更具競爭力而下滑；乙醇運輸則因汽油需求降低而走弱。

Looking forward we expect the agricultural sector to be stable with increases in both grain and phosphate shipments being offset by lower ethanol demand.

展望未來，我們預期農業部門將保持穩定，穀物與磷酸鹽出貨增加將被乙醇需求下降所抵銷。

Industrial sector strength is expected to continue led by the automotive and metals markets. New oil and gas-related growth will also support increase shipments and metals and chemicals. And finally, the construction sector growth should continue led by the strength in multi-family housing.

預期工業部門的強勁態勢將持續，由汽車與金屬市場領軍。與油氣相關的新成長也將支撐金屬與化學品出貨增加。最後，建築部門的成長應可延續，主要由多戶住宅（multi-family housing）的強勁表現帶動。

Now let's wrap up on the next slide. Looking ahead the economic backdrop remains favorable as most major economic indicators are positive in 2012. As I mentioned earlier, we expect solid growth in 58% of CSX markets and stable conditions in 32% of our markets. While utility coal volume will continue to be challenged by lower generation, low gas prices and higher coal inventories, we expect these headwinds to moderate somewhat through the balance of the year.

現在讓我們在下一張投影片做個總結。展望未來，經濟背景仍然有利，因為2012年多數主要經濟指標皆呈正向。如我先前提到，我們預期CSX有58%的市場將有穩健成長，另有32%的市場維持穩定。雖然公用事業用煤運量仍將受到發電量下降、天然氣價格偏低以及煤炭庫存較高的挑戰，我們預期這些逆風在今年剩餘期間將有所緩和。

Finally, service levels have improved significantly. In our most recent annual survey results customers gave us the highest overall rating since the inception of the survey in 2004 and we remain committed to creating compelling value and providing environmentally friendly solutions for our customers going forward. Thank you and now let me turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

最後，服務水準已顯著改善。在我們最近一次年度調查結果中，客戶給予我們自2004年調查開始以來的最高整體評分；未來我們仍將致力於創造具吸引力的價值，並為客戶提供環境友善的解決方案。謝謝各位，接下來我把簡報交給Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運成果。

Well, thank you, Mr. Gooden, and good morning, everyone. It's my privilege to represent our operations team today. And I've got to tell you the great part of telling the story is that the fundamental strategy we've been employing since 2003 continues, as does our strong operating performance. So let me begin on slide 13.

好的，謝謝您，Gooden先生，各位早安。

At CSX operational success has at its core been driven by our people and the culture we've created. This has resulted in significant improvements in safety, service and productivity over the last few years. This quarter is no different, safety and service are at or near record levels and productivity and cost controls are driving margin expansion.

在CSX，營運成功的核心動力來自我們的員工以及我們所建立的文化。這在過去幾年帶來了安全、服務與生產力的顯著改善。本季亦不例外：安全與服務達到或接近歷史新高，而生產力提升與成本控管正推動利潤率擴張。

At the same time we are increasingly adding a strategic dimension to what we do. In operations that means looking around corners and challenging ourselves to think like our customers as their supply chain and businesses evolve. It means being nimble to meet our changing business market conditions, like those we're seeing in our coal business, and it means looking ahead as we allocate resources to developing market opportunities like those coming out of the oil and gas industry.

同時，我們也愈來愈為我們所做的事情加入策略面向。在營運上，這意味著要有前瞻思維，並挑戰自己隨著客戶供應鏈與業務演進而以客戶的角度思考。這也意味著要靈活應對不斷變化的商業市場環境，例如我們在煤炭業務所看到的情況；並且在我們配置資源時要向前看，以開發來自油氣產業等市場機會。

By focusing relentlessly on the operational fundamentals and thinking strategically we will continue to drive excellence in our operations and value for our customers and share owners. Now let's turn to the safety results on the next slide.

透過持續不懈地專注於營運基本功並以策略思維行事，我們將持續推動營運卓越，並為客戶與股東創造價值。現在讓我們看下一張投影片的安全成果。

Those of you who have followed us for any length of time know how important safety is to our business. It transcends every aspect of what we do because it affects the lives of our employees and the communities we serve. At the same time it reflects the rigor and attention to detail we need to run every aspect of this great railroad.

長期關注我們的各位都知道，安全對我們的業務有多重要。它超越我們所做的一切面向，因為它影響員工的生命以及我們所服務的社區。同時，它也反映出我們在經營這條卓越鐵路的每個環節所需的嚴謹態度與對細節的重視。

Looking at the FRA personal injury rate on the left you can see that our employees produced another quarterly record, a testament to their focus and concern for each other. The chart on the right shows our FRA train accident rate which improved 24% year over year to just over two occurrences per 1 million train miles. This improvement is driven both by the employees' adherence to operating rules and to their use of new technology to identify issues early.

看左側的FRA人身傷害率，你可以看到我們的員工再創單季新紀錄，這證明了他們的專注以及彼此關懷。右側圖表顯示我們的FRA列車事故率年對年改善24%，降至每100萬列車英里僅略高於2起。這項改善同時來自員工對營運規章的遵循，以及運用新技術及早辨識問題。

Now let's turn to the next slide and review our on-time performance. On both of these charts you see our performance in on-time originations and arrivals which we show you every quarter. This time, however, we've overlaid six- and 12-month trend lines.

現在讓我們看下一張投影片，檢視我們的準點表現。在這兩張圖表中，你會看到我們每季都會向各位呈現的起運準點率與到達準點率表現。不過這次我們另外疊加了6個月與12個月的趨勢線。

When you, as investors, evaluate business performance you look at the fundamentals of the business as well as the technicals. We view our service measures in much the same way, with the fundamental results for the quarter represented by the bars and the technicals represented by the moving averages, black for 12-month -- I'm sorry -- black and 12-month average in red.

各位投資人在評估企業績效時，會看業務基本面也會看技術面。我們看待服務指標也很類似：以長條呈現本季的基本面結果，而以移動平均呈現技術面；黑色為6個月平均，紅色為12個月平均——抱歉——黑色為6個月平均，紅色為12個月平均。

When our quarterly results and service are below the six-month trend line it's an early indication that we need to take corrective action in order to avoid a longer-term negative trend. Likewise, when the quarterly results are above the trend line it's a signal that we have strong momentum in our service performance.

當我們的單季結果與服務表現低於6個月趨勢線時，這是需要採取矯正行動的早期訊號，以避免形成較長期的負面趨勢。同樣地，當單季結果高於趨勢線時，則表示我們的服務表現具有強勁動能。

So when you look at on-time originations for the quarter, they are at an all time high and arrivals are near record levels. That's great news and the feedback from customers, as Clarence mentioned, has been very positive.

因此，當你看本季的起運準點率，已達到歷史新高，而到達準點率也接近紀錄水準。這是非常好的消息，而且如Clarence所提到的，客戶回饋非常正面。

Now if you step back and look at the broader story here, you can see that over the last couple years the trend lines for both originations and arrivals have declined. But last year, as you may recall, we made key resource investments to improve our service product. Those investments, along with the great work of our people, are now propelling our quarterly performance and the longer-term trend lines.

現在如果你退一步看更宏觀的脈絡，你會看到過去幾年起運與到達的趨勢線都在下滑。但去年，如各位所記得的，我們進行了關鍵的資源投資以改善我們的服務產品。這些投資，加上我們員工的出色表現，正推動我們的單季績效以及更長期的趨勢線向上。

The fact that the first-quarter results and the six-month trends are above the 12-month trend line is a strong signal of our momentum in the coming quarters.

第一季結果與6個月趨勢皆高於12個月趨勢線，這強烈顯示我們在未來幾季將具備良好動能。

Now turning to our system performance on the next slide, terminal dwell is another important measure not only from a service aspect but also in terms of how efficient we utilize our assets. Here where reduced dwell time is favorable the six month trend line is clearly improving and has crossed the 12-month line, again showing momentum, and represents our best first-quarter performance since 2009.

接著看下一張投影片的系統績效，終端停留時間（terminal dwell）是另一項重要指標，不僅關乎服務面，也關乎我們如何有效運用資產。在此，停留時間越短越有利；6個月趨勢線明顯改善並已穿越12個月趨勢線，再次顯示動能，且代表我們自2009年以來最佳的第一季表現。

Overall velocity on the right side of the chart is also in great shape, but is more meaningful when you break it down by market which we do on the following chart. Here you can see that the velocity is moving in the right direction across all three of our networks, coal, intermodal and merchandise, with both enter results for the quarter and the six-month trend line showing positive momentum.

圖表右側的整體運行速度（velocity）也維持在非常良好的狀態，但若按市場拆分來看更具意義，我們在下一張圖表會這麼做。在這裡你可以看到，運行速度在我們三大網路——煤炭、聯運與一般貨運——皆朝正確方向改善；本季結果與6個月趨勢線都顯示正向動能。

In coal with overall volumes declining, service and productivity are up with the average train length increasing to 106 cars. At the same time, with increased fluidity in the coal network we were able to deliver 12.5 million tons to the export market.

在煤炭業務整體運量下滑的情況下，服務與生產力仍有所提升，平均列車長度增加至 106 節車廂。同時，隨著煤炭網路流動性提升，我們得以向出口市場交付 1,250 萬噸。

In intermodal higher velocity means we can make more capacity available to our customers and therefore a higher level of service. We did this in the first quarter while handling a 9% increase in volume. Availability, which is measured as the percent of loaded containers or trailers ready for on-time pickup in our most sensitive time sensitive business is up to 98% and availability across our broader intermodal business is in the mid 80%'s.

在聯運方面，更高的運行速度意味著我們能為客戶提供更多可用運能，因此服務水準更高。我們在第一季於運量增加 9% 的同時做到了這一點。可用率（以我們最敏感、最重視時效的業務中，已裝載的貨櫃或拖車可準時提取的百分比衡量）提升至 98%；而在更廣泛的聯運業務中，可用率約在 80% 中段。

Finally, in the merchandise business, which grew 3%, higher velocity combined with significantly improved terminal dwell time is enabling CSX to deliver products to customers with a higher degree of precision.

最後，在成長 3% 的一般貨運（merchandise）業務中，更高的運行速度結合顯著改善的場站停留時間，使 CSX 能以更高的精準度向客戶交付產品。

Now looking at cost control and productivity on the next slide, we entered 2012 with high expectations for customer service. But we also knew that we had to regain some lost momentum and productivity and cost control especially given the need to offset the decline in the coal market. The first quarter was a great start in that regard. In fact, cost controls and operational productivity contributed to our record first-quarter operating ratio, as you can see on the chart on the left.

現在看下一張投影片的成本控制與生產力，我們在 2012 年初對客戶服務抱持高度期待。但我們也知道必須重拾先前流失的動能，在生產力與成本控制上加把勁，尤其考量到需要抵銷煤炭市場下滑的影響。第一季在這方面是個很好的開始。事實上，成本控制與營運生產力促成了我們創紀錄的第一季營業比率，如同你在左側圖表所見。

From a cost control aspect, as coal demand weakened further we took steps to adjust our T&E resources in select areas, mainly, as you'd expect, in the coal regions. In addition, we recently began to store locomotives after a smooth and fast start to our spring peak shipping season.

就成本控制而言，隨著煤炭需求進一步走弱，我們採取措施在部分地區調整運輸與引擎（T&E）資源，主要如你所預期是在煤炭區域。此外，在春季出貨旺季順利且快速啟動後，我們近期也開始封存機車。

On the productivity front the first quarter was an excellent start toward our goal delivering savings in excess of $130 million this year. Our train crews have operated with less overtime and fewer re-crews while engineering over time has also been reduced. Our improved service has also been reflected in faster cycle times, reducing car rents despite the increased volume in most of our markets.

在生產力方面，第一季是朝向今年節省超過 1.3 億美元目標的極佳開端。我們的列車乘務員以較少加班與較少重新派班（re-crews）運作，同時工程加班也有所降低。我們改善的服務也反映在更快的週轉時間上，儘管多數市場運量增加，仍降低了車輛租金成本。

These are just a few examples of the types of productivity drivers we expect to help CSX again exceed its productivity goal for 2012. At the same time it's important to note that we expect to achieve these goals while maintaining high levels of service. So let me wrap up on the next slide.

以上只是我們預期可協助 CSX 在 2012 年再次超越生產力目標的幾個生產力驅動因素例子。同時必須強調，我們預期在維持高水準服務的同時達成這些目標。接下來我在下一張投影片做個總結。

The story of operational excellence here at CSX has been developed for many years and the commitment of our people is as strong as ever, which is clearly indicated in our first-quarter performance. In safety we are operating at high levels and as industry leader we continue to identify new ways to achieve higher performance.

CSX 的卓越營運故事已經發展多年，我們同仁的承諾一如既往地強烈，這在第一季表現中清楚可見。在安全方面，我們維持高水準運作，作為業界領導者，我們持續尋找達成更高績效的新方法。

In service every key measure shows strong momentum. Value is created by people who are engaged and nothing does that better than knowing that what you do matters to customers. We are seeing that throughout all areas of the operations.

在服務方面，每一項關鍵指標都展現強勁動能。價值由投入其中的人所創造，而沒有什麼比知道你所做的事對客戶很重要更能促成投入。我們在營運的各個領域都看到了這一點。

And when it comes to productivity, we've told you before about our focus on asset management and these efforts have progressed significantly over the past few months. In fact, we've transformed our process improvement teams into asset management teams. They're focused on improved utilization, reliability, unit cost and creating the productivity pipeline for the next several years. These folks have a great track record for getting results and I'm confident they will continue to succeed.

至於生產力，我們先前已談過對資產管理的聚焦，而這些努力在過去幾個月已有顯著進展。事實上，我們已將流程改善團隊轉型為資產管理團隊。他們專注於提升利用率、可靠性、單位成本，並為未來數年建立生產力管線。這些同仁在取得成果方面有很好的紀錄，我相信他們會持續成功。

In short, we are committed to safely providing the high levels of service that customers expect while also generating the productivity required to create lasting value for shareowners. Now let me turn the presentation over to Fredrik to review the financials.

總之，我們承諾在安全前提下提供客戶所期待的高水準服務，同時創造所需的生產力，為股東創造長期價值。現在我把簡報交給 Fredrik 來回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter CSX once again demonstrated the ability to leverage strong top-line gains with a continuing focus on productivity and service to achieve double-digit earnings growth.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。第一季 CSX 再次展現了在持續聚焦生產力與服務的同時，運用強勁營收成長（top-line gains）來實現兩位數盈餘成長的能力。

Looking at the top of this slide, revenue improved 6% to nearly $3 billion on strong core pricing, modest volume growth and the impact of higher fuel recovery. This coupled with only a 4% increase in expenses generated first-quarter operating income of $856 million, up 11% versus the prior year.

看這張投影片上方，受惠於強勁的核心定價、溫和的運量成長以及較高燃油回收的影響，營收成長 6% 至接近 30 億美元。再加上費用僅增加 4%，使第一季營業利益達 8.56 億美元，較去年同期成長 11%。

Looking below the line, interest expense was up $4 million, other income was down $1 million and income taxes were up $24 million to $267 million in the quarter for an effective tax rate of 37.3%. Going forward we continue to expect a normalized tax rate of about 38%. Finally, EPS was $0.43, an improvement of 23% reflecting the very solid gains in core earnings and the impact of our share repurchase program.

看損益表下方，利息費用增加 400 萬美元，其他收入減少 100 萬美元，所得稅費用在本季增加 2,400 萬美元至 2.67 億美元，有效稅率為 37.3%。展望未來，我們仍預期常態化稅率約為 38%。最後，每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.43 美元，成長 23%，反映核心盈餘的穩健提升以及我們庫藏股回購計畫的影響。

Turning to the next slide, let's begin to discuss expenses in more detail. As you can see on this slide, total expense was up 4% with the most significant increase being driven by higher fuel prices that are essentially offset through our fuel recovery program.

接著看下一張投影片，我們開始更詳細地討論費用。如你在此投影片所見，總費用增加 4%，其中最顯著的增幅來自燃油價格上升，而這基本上會透過我們的燃油回收計畫予以抵銷。

Despite the resource investments made in the back half of last year non-fuel cost increased only 2% in the quarter as the high level of service that we are currently delivering for our customers is also improving asset utilization. I will talk about the top three expense lines in more detail in the next few slides, but let me briefly speak to the last two items on the chart.

儘管去年下半年進行了資源投入，本季非燃油成本僅增加 2%，因為我們目前為客戶提供的高水準服務也正在提升資產利用率。接下來幾張投影片我會更詳細說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談一下圖表中的最後兩項。

Depreciation was up 6% to $257 million due to the increase in the net asset base. This is in line with our previous estimates and should continue to increase a few million dollars sequentially each quarter. Equipment rents were flat at $97 million as strong volume increases in automotive, intermodal and merchandise were offset entirely by improved cycle times.

折舊費用增加 6% 至 2.57 億美元，原因是淨資產基礎增加。這與我們先前的估計一致，且預期未來每季將依序再增加數百萬美元。設備租金維持持平於 9,700 萬美元，因汽車、聯運與一般貨運的強勁運量成長，已完全被週轉時間改善所抵銷。

Turning to slide 23, labor and fringe expense was up 1% versus last year or $5 million. Looking at the chart on the left, headcount this quarter was up 6% versus last year and just 1% sequentially, which is in line with our prior guidance. Note that the employees in [furlough] retention status will continue to show up in our headcount numbers. Excluding these employees headcount is roughly flat on a sequential basis.

看第 23 張投影片，勞工與附加福利費用較去年增加 1%，或 500 萬美元。看左側圖表，本季員工人數較去年增加 6%，較前一季僅增加 1%，符合我們先前的指引。請注意，處於 [furlough] 留任狀態的員工仍會計入我們的人數統計。排除這些員工後，員工人數在季比基礎上大致持平。

Reflecting the additions we made to the workforce and looking at the table on the right, hiring and training costs were up $12 million in the quarter and volume and other related costs were up $9 million. The impact of wage and healthcare inflation in this quarter was a modest $8 million or about 1%. While core wage inflation was between 2.5% to 3%, this is being offset by moderating health and welfare costs as well as the impact of lower railroad unemployment tax rates.

反映我們新增的人力，並看右側表格，本季招募與訓練成本增加 1,200 萬美元，運量及其他相關成本增加 900 萬美元。本季薪資與醫療保健通膨的影響僅 800 萬美元，約 1%。雖然核心薪資通膨介於 2.5% 至 3%，但這被健康與福利成本趨緩，以及較低的鐵路失業稅率所抵銷。

Rounding out the table, incentive compensation was $24 million favorable in the quarter reflecting the outlook for our incentive programs. Looking forward, headcount should be relatively constant throughout the year. In addition, we expect that labor inflation will remain modest. Finally, the favorable year-over-year variance to incentive compensation will likely moderate in the second quarter and should even out in the second half as year-over-year comparisons ease.

表格其餘部分，激勵性薪酬在本季呈現有利 2,400 萬美元，反映我們對激勵計畫的展望。展望未來，全年員工人數應相對維持穩定。此外，我們預期勞動成本通膨將維持溫和。最後，激勵性薪酬的年對年有利差異可能在第二季趨於收斂，並在下半年隨著年對年比較基期趨於容易而趨於持平。

Turning to slide 24, MS&O expense increased 2% or $12 million versus last year. Looking at the table to the right, inflation was $14 million. Next, CSX recognized a $19 million deferred gain, this gain reflects the Company's sale of property last year to the state of Florida and we will continue to recognize a similar gain each quarter throughout the year. CSX recognized a $14 million gain in the fourth quarter of 2011, so the year-over-year favorable comparisons will mainly continue through this year's third quarter.

看第 24 張投影片，MS&O 費用較去年增加 2%，或 1,200 萬美元。看右側表格，通膨為 1,400 萬美元。接著，CSX 認列 1,900 萬美元的遞延利益；此利益反映公司去年將不動產出售給佛羅里達州政府，我們將在全年每一季持續認列類似的利益。CSX 在 2011 年第四季認列 1,400 萬美元利益，因此年對年有利比較主要將持續到今年第三季。

Moving down the table, volume-related expenses increased $12 million in the quarter reflecting costs related to our growing intermodal, export coal and automotive businesses. Finally, all other costs increased $5 million in this quarter.

再往下看表格，與運量相關的費用在本季增加了1,200萬美元，反映出我們成長中的聯運、出口煤與汽車業務所帶來的成本。最後，本季其他所有成本增加了500萬美元。

Moving to the next slide, let's discuss the impact of fuel. Total fuel cost increased 10% or $42 million versus last year. Looking at the chart on the left, CSX's average cost per gallon for locomotive fuel climbed $3.15, an increase of 10%. This increase in fuel price accounted for $37 million of higher expense, as seen in the table on the right.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來討論燃料的影響。燃料總成本較去年增加10%，或4,200萬美元。從左側圖表來看，CSX 機車燃料每加侖平均成本上升至3.15美元，增幅為10%。如右側表格所示，燃料價格上漲造成費用增加3,700萬美元。

Next, while the network was significantly more fluid, the addition of locomotives in the back half of last year reduced overall fuel efficiency by $4 million. With gross ton miles up modestly, volume drove a $2 million increase in fuel expense. And rounding out the table, non-locomotive fuel decreased by $1 million.

接下來，雖然路網流動性顯著提升，但去年下半年新增機車使整體燃油效率下降，帶來400萬美元的不利影響。在總噸英里小幅上升的情況下，運量推動燃料費用增加200萬美元。而表格最後一項，非機車燃料減少了100萬美元。

Moving to the next slide, let's discuss our progress on incremental margins. The first-quarter results, as we discussed, were outstanding, reflecting this Company's continued commitment to deliver profitable growth, price above inflation and to serve customers safely and efficiently. As such, we were able to deliver an incremental margin of 53% which returns us to the levels we saw in 2010 and the first half of 2011.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來談談增量利潤率的進展。如我們所討論的，第一季結果非常出色，反映公司持續致力於實現獲利成長、定價高於通膨，並以安全且高效率的方式服務客戶。因此，我們得以達成53%的增量利潤率，回到2010年以及2011年上半年所見的水準。

As we look forward at the second quarter, the headwinds in utility coal are expected to be more challenging and we will cycle the repricing of several large contracts in the early part of last year. On the export side, while we expect volume to remain strong, we will continue to feel the impact of higher thermal mix and lower tariff rates in metallurgical coal.

展望第二季，公用事業用煤的不利因素預期將更具挑戰性，而且我們將進入去年年初數個大型合約重新定價的比較基期。在出口方面，雖然我們預期運量仍將維持強勁，但我們仍會持續感受到動力煤占比提高，以及冶金煤運價（tariff）費率較低的影響。

However, as we merge in the back half of the year and anticipate a moderating headwind from utility coal, as well as the cycling of last year's resource additions, we expect incremental margins will be in line with the levels we saw in the first half of 2011.

然而，隨著我們進入下半年，並預期公用事業用煤的不利因素趨於緩和，以及去年資源新增的比較基期效應消退，我們預期增量利潤率將與2011年上半年所見水準一致。

Now let me turn your attention to CSX's balanced approach to cash deployment on the next slide. The first priority is capital (technical difficulty) investments. In 2012 we announced -- we announced earlier CSX plans to invest $2.25 billion in our business. Over $200 million of this year's capital investment plan is for positive train control.

現在請各位把注意力轉到下一張投影片，看看 CSX 在現金運用上的均衡策略。第一優先是資本（technical difficulty）投資。在2012年，我們宣布——我們先前已宣布 CSX 計畫投資22.5億美元於本業。今年資本投資計畫中有超過2億美元用於正向列車控制（PTC）。

While the amount we plan to spend in 2012 has not changed, we now expect the total PTC investment to be approximately $1.7 billion, up $500 million from our previous estimates. That means that after this year we would have a little over $1.1 billion left to spend based on this revised estimate.

雖然我們計畫在2012年的支出金額不變，但我們現在預期 PTC 總投資約為17億美元，較先前估計增加5億美元。這表示依據此修正後估計，今年之後我們仍將有略高於11億美元需要支出。

The largest driver of the increased spending is that as technology has evolved we have determined an additional 4,000 miles of track will be incompatible with existing signal systems. In addition, we've also seen increased costs associated with system integration and unit cost of various components. While we continue to target the 2015 deadline for PTC, we recognize that technological challenges are likely to prevent us from achieving this time line.

支出增加的最大驅動因素是：隨著技術演進，我們判定將有額外4,000英里的軌道與既有號誌系統不相容。此外，我們也看到與系統整合以及各項元件單位成本相關的成本上升。雖然我們仍以2015年作為 PTC 的目標期限，但我們也認知到技術挑戰很可能使我們無法達成此時間表。

Outside of PTC our core investment for infrastructure, rolling stock and strategic projects have remained unchanged. Here we have been spending 16% to 17% of revenue and capital over the last several years and we expect that to continue going forward.

除 PTC 之外，我們在基礎設施、車輛（rolling stock）與策略性專案的核心投資維持不變。過去幾年我們的資本支出約占營收的16%至17%，並預期未來也將持續如此。

The second priority in the balanced approach is dividends. CSX remains committed to a dividend payout range of 30% to 35% of trailing 12 months earnings, which were $1.75 through the first quarter, and a potential dividend increase will be reviewed by the Board next month.

此均衡策略的第二優先是股利。CSX 仍致力於將股利支付率維持在過去12個月盈餘的30%至35%區間；截至第一季，過去12個月每股盈餘為1.75美元，而董事會將於下個月審議是否可能調升股利。

The third priority in the cash deployment strategy is share repurchases. During the first quarter CSX repurchased $300 million of shares and has now collectively repurchased $7.5 billion since 2006. There are approximately $400 million of repurchases remaining under the current program which we expect to be completed by the end of 2012.

現金運用策略的第三優先是庫藏股回購。第一季 CSX 回購了3億美元的股票，自2006年以來累計回購已達75億美元。目前計畫下尚餘約4億美元的回購額度，我們預期將於2012年底前完成。

Turning to slide 28, as you can see from these charts CSX has remained committed to an improving investment grade credit profile over the last several years. The long-term trend is improving for both funds from operations to debt and debt to EBITDA. These are two of the key measures used by S&P and Moody's to validate CSX's improving credit profile.

翻到第28頁投影片，從這些圖表可以看到，過去幾年 CSX 一直致力於改善投資等級的信用概況。長期趨勢顯示，無論是營運資金流量（FFO）對負債比，或負債對 EBITDA 比率，都在改善。這兩項是標普（S&P）與穆迪（Moody's）用來驗證 CSX 信用概況改善的關鍵衡量指標。

The market has also recognized our improving profile. We issued $300 million of 30-year debt in February at a 4.4 coupon rate which is the lowest coupon rate ever secured by a company in the broader BBB space. While CSX will continue to refinance debt as needed and look to take advantage of capital market opportunities, we remain committed to funding future share repurchase primarily through free cash flow while at the same time remain committed to an improving credit profile.

市場也已認可我們改善中的概況。我們在2月發行了3億美元、30年期債券，票面利率4.4%，這是更廣泛 BBB 級距中公司所取得的最低票面利率。雖然 CSX 將在需要時持續進行債務再融資並尋求把握資本市場機會，但我們仍致力於主要透過自由現金流為未來的股票回購提供資金，同時也持續致力於改善信用概況。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. Recapping the first quarter, CSX delivered record financial results despite the significant headwind from utility coal. Merchandise and intermodal volumes grew above the rate of the economy and we continue to price in excess of inflation. CSX's ongoing commitment to safety, service and productivity help deliver solid cost side performance that help drive double-digit earnings growth with strong incremental margins.

接著讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。回顧第一季，儘管公用事業用煤帶來顯著逆風，CSX 仍創下創紀錄的財務表現。一般貨運與聯運運量的成長高於整體經濟成長率，我們也持續實現高於通膨的定價。CSX 對安全、服務與生產力的持續承諾，帶來穩健的成本端表現，進而推動盈餘雙位數成長並具備強勁的增量利潤率。

Looking forward, CSX remains focused on offsetting utility coal declines by relying on three key levers of price, productivity and strong volume growth in merchandise and intermodal. Looking further out, CSX remains on the path to achieve a 65% operating ratio by 2015. While the road has become more challenging the target remains achievable.

展望未來，CSX 仍專注於透過三個關鍵槓桿來抵銷公用事業用煤的下滑：定價、生產力，以及一般貨運與聯運的強勁運量成長。再更長期來看，CSX 仍在邁向於2015年前達成65%營業比率的路徑上。雖然道路變得更具挑戰性，但該目標仍可達成。

Finally, as we deliver outstanding financial results to our investors, CSX remains committed to a balanced approach to cash deployment that includes ongoing capital investments, dividends and share repurchases. With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

最後，在為投資人創造卓越財務成果的同時，CSX 仍致力於採取均衡的現金運用方式，包括持續的資本投資、股利與股票回購。接下來，我把簡報交回 Michael，請他做結語。

Well, thank you, Fredrik. Well 2012 represents another challenging year, yet one in which our team expects to deliver excellent results. As we outlined in this morning's presentation, utility coal is our biggest headwind and it will be even a greater factor in the second quarter. In response, we will continue to maximize opportunities in all other markets that are solid to growing, as Clarence outlined, while keeping our focus on safety, service and productivity.

好的，謝謝你，Fredrik。2012年是另一個充滿挑戰的一年，但我們的團隊仍預期能交出優異成果。如同我們今天上午簡報所述，公用事業用煤是我們最大的逆風，而且在第二季將成為更大的因素。作為回應，我們將如 Clarence 所說，持續在其他穩健到成長的市場中最大化機會，同時保持對安全、服務與生產力的專注。

This team remains both vigilant and confident. We are aware of the obstacles, we know what we need to do to progress forward and we, again, expect to achieve year-over-year earnings growth in 2012. Our confidence is reinforced by the resiliency that this team has demonstrated while delivering record financial results in five of the past six years. We accomplished this through the housing collapse, the biggest global recession in the last half-century and a significant decline in our utility coal business.

這個團隊既保持警覺也充滿信心。我們了解障礙所在，也知道需要做什麼才能持續向前推進，而且我們再次預期在2012年達成年增的盈餘成長。我們的信心來自於團隊所展現的韌性：在過去六年中有五年創下創紀錄的財務成果。我們在房市崩盤、過去半世紀最大規模的全球衰退，以及公用事業用煤業務大幅下滑的情況下，仍完成了這些成果。

CSX is a healthy growing company that responds well to challenges. We enter the future with a robust industry outlook, a diverse mix of product markets, a well-positioned transportation network and a track record for success. Our first-quarter performance was the fast start we were looking for and our employees will remain highly focused in the months and years ahead. We thank them for being key to our success and at this time we look forward to answering your questions.

CSX 是一家健康成長、能良好應對挑戰的公司。我們以強勁的產業展望、多元的產品市場組合、具優勢的運輸路網，以及成功的實績紀錄迎向未來。第一季表現是我們所期待的快速開局，而我們的員工在未來數月與數年仍將高度專注。我們感謝他們成為成功的關鍵；此刻我們也期待回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions). Bill Greene, Morgan Stanley.

（接線員指示）。Bill Greene，摩根士丹利。

I'm wondering, Clarence, if I can ask you just a couple of questions on pricing. First, in your presentation I didn't hear any comments on same-store sales pricing. Maybe you can offer some views there. And along those lines, how do we think about how the potential for take or pay would affect how pricing will be perceived? Does that just show up as revenue without any car loads and are your comments on coal suggestive that maybe we're not actually going to get there if things are troughing in the second quarter?

Clarence，我想就定價問你幾個問題。首先，在你的簡報中我沒有聽到任何關於同店銷售定價的評論。也許你可以在這方面提供一些看法。另外，我們該如何看待「take or pay」的可能性會如何影響外界對定價的認知？那是否會在沒有任何車皮裝載的情況下就以營收呈現？以及你對煤炭的評論是否暗示，如果第二季處於谷底，我們可能其實不會走到那一步？

Okay. First question is on the same-store sales pricing, they were in the range between 5% and 6%. Second question there, which was on -- was it on take or pay?

好的。第一個問題是同店銷售定價，它們大約在 5% 到 6% 的區間。第二個問題是關於——是關於 take or pay 嗎？

Yes, just how does it show up and your comment suggests we're not going to see that effect on coal.

是的，就是它會如何呈現，以及你的評論似乎表示我們不會在煤炭上看到那個效果。

When you say take or pay are you referring to liquidated damages?

你說的 take or pay 是指違約金（liquidated damages）嗎？

Yes, sorry.

是的，不好意思。

Right now there was no impact in this quarter on the liquidated damages. Usually the way that process works is liquidated damages, if they are in fact applicable, apply in the following year for the year in which the shortfalls were not met.

目前本季違約金沒有任何影響。通常這個流程是：如果違約金確實適用，會在隔年針對未達短缺的那一年來適用。

So if you have liquidated damages you would get essentially just the loss of that revenue and the car loads this year with a kick next year?

所以如果有違約金，你今年基本上會同時失去那部分營收與車皮裝載量，但明年會補回一筆？

Well, actually what you would get is the liquidated damages next year.

嗯，實際上你明年會收到的是違約金。

But Bill, this is Michael. You're referring to it as take or pay. Most of our contracts, it's not officially take or pay, you have to pay the full price if you don't move it. There's usually a liquidated damages amount that's less than what the rate would be.

不過 Bill，我是 Michael。你把它稱作 take or pay。我們大多數合約並不是正式的 take or pay，也不是不運就要付全額價格。通常會有一個違約金金額，低於原本的運價。

I'm just trying to figure if we will -- because the yields on coal, I think, surprised a bit to the upside. And I think what I'm trying to understand is when we think about modeling this going forward, we've seen some export coal pricing come down. We're getting questions about is there room to move this, but there's a few moving parts here such as maybe you'll get paid for volumes you don't move. I'm not sure how to think about modeling that.

我只是想弄清楚我們是否會——因為我覺得煤炭的單位收益（yields）有點超出預期。我想理解的是，當我們往前建模時，我們看到一些出口煤的定價下滑。我們也被問到是否還有調整空間，但這裡有幾個變動因素，例如你可能會對未運出的量也收到款。我不太確定該怎麼把這個納入模型。

Well, I think -- this is Fredrik -- I think, first of all, in the first quarter, there was really no impact of that. And if there would be liquidated damages going forward, and I think that's on a customer by customer basis, then we will sit down and talk to that customer, it will really not show up in the line holes; it would show up in other revenue. And at this point, as we look out for the next few quarters, we don't see a material impact of that.

嗯，我想——我是 Fredrik——我想首先，第一季其實完全沒有這方面的影響。如果未來會有違約金，而且我認為這要視客戶而定，那我們會坐下來和該客戶談；它不會反映在運量（line hauls）裡，而是會反映在其他營收。而就目前我們對未來幾季的觀察，我們不認為這會造成重大影響。

Okay. All right, thanks for the time.

好的。好，謝謝你們撥冗。

Ken Hoexter, Merrill Lynch.

Ken Hoexter，美林。

Just on that last statement, you said the second quarter was the worst headwinds on coal. Just wondering what are you basing that on? Are you just guessing that inventory is as high as it's going to get, the switching is all done in region and therefore, with the switching done, you have a better outlook?

就你剛才最後那句話，你說第二季是煤炭面臨最強逆風的時候。想請問你是基於什麼判斷？你是猜測庫存已經高到頂、區域內的燃料替代都已完成，因此替代完成後展望會更好嗎？

No, Ken, we're basing it on several factors. Number one is what our customers have told us that they expect to ship and receive. Number two is electrical demand, as we mentioned earlier, still down in the East from where it has historically been. The third reason is that our comps on a year-over-year basis are just more difficult in the second quarter than they are in the third and the fourth quarter.

不，Ken，我們是基於幾個因素。第一是客戶告訴我們他們預期會出貨與接收的量。第二是用電需求，如我們先前提到的，東部仍低於歷史水準。第三個原因是，我們以年對年比較來看，第二季的比較基期比第三季與第四季更具挑戰。

Okay. And then if I can just switch, Fredrik, on the incentive comp, I think you threw out that it moderates in the back half of the year. I just want to understand, should we then expect kind of on a cost per employee basis to see a kind of catch-up as you had adjusted, you reversed some accruals in last year's third quarter. Does it get a lot tougher in the second half or does it just -- I just want to understand the impact on that reversal.

好的。然後我想換個話題，Fredrik，關於獎酬薪資（incentive comp），我記得你提到下半年會趨於溫和。我想了解的是，那麼我們是否應該預期在每位員工成本的角度會看到某種追補，因為你們在去年第三季調整、沖回了一些應計？下半年會變得困難很多嗎，還是——我只是想了解那個沖回的影響。

Well, as we said, obviously this was a big number here in the first quarter. We expect it to moderate in the second and then kind of level out in the fourth on incentive comp specifically. That cost per employee has some other factors in it as well, which we talked about as well, which is that the health and welfare cost is a little bit lower this year than it was last year, that's helping. The unemployment tax rate is lower this year than last year as well.

嗯，如我們所說，顯然第一季這個數字很大。我們預期第二季會趨於溫和，然後在第四季就獎酬薪資而言大致持平。每位員工成本還包含其他一些因素，我們也提過，例如今年的健康與福利成本比去年略低，這有幫助。失業稅率今年也比去年低。

Appreciate the time.

感謝你們撥冗。

Tom Wadewitz, JPMorgan.

Tom Wadewitz，摩根大通。

Wanted to ask I guess for a little bit more -- Clarence, if you're willing to give a little more granularity on second quarter. So how big of a step down are you talking about in the utility coal? I think you said you were down 27 -- was it 27% in volumes in first quarter? Is it kind of a modest step down or what -- just kind of magnitude for what you're looking at in utility coal in second quarter.

我想問——Clarence，如果你願意的話，能否對第二季提供更細一點的說明。所以公用事業煤炭（utility coal）你們所說的下滑幅度大概有多大？我想你說第一季運量下降了 27——是 27% 嗎？第二季是小幅再下滑，還是——就你們對第二季公用事業煤炭的看法，大概是什麼量級？

Yes, it's close to that. We should be down somewhere around -- it will be close to what it was in the first quarter.

是的，差不多。我們應該會下降到大約——會接近第一季的水準。

Just a little -- a little, not a lot, right?

只是小幅——小一點，不會很多，對吧？

Not a lot.

不會很多。

Okay. And is there an ability for the utilities to say, look, we just can't -- our stockpiles are full and we can't -- literally can't take any more coal without having an operational problem, a stockpile management problem -- and so we need to take a further step down? Or is that essentially what you're kind of saying that that moderate reduction is maybe stockpile related?

好的。那公用事業公司是否有可能說：你看，我們真的不行——我們的堆存已滿，再收煤就會有營運問題、堆場管理問題——所以我們需要再進一步下調？或者你所說的那個溫和減量，本質上就是和堆存有關？

No, Tom, obviously if you can't physically take the coal you can't physically take the coal. I mean that is what it is. But we're seeing at our stockpiles now is two things. One is the burn itself, the coal burn is being displaced by natural gas, the days of burn de facto go up. And then the stockpiles themselves from a tonnage standpoint are somewhat higher than they normally are at this time of the year in any event. Does that make sense to you?

不，Tom，很明顯如果你在物理上無法接收煤炭，你就無法接收煤炭。事情就是如此。但我們現在在庫存堆存上看到兩件事。第一是燃燒本身，煤炭燃燒量正被天然氣取代，因此以燃燒天數（days of burn）來看會自然上升。第二是堆存本身以噸數來看，無論如何在一年中的這個時點都比平常略高一些。這樣你能理解嗎？

Yes, sure. Sure, that -- yes, that does make sense. And then I guess the second topic, just on intermodal train lengths, how did the Maersk business effect -- did you actually -- you had good volume growth in Maersk and in other areas, did you see train lengths improve or did you see kind of train starts go up with the added -- addition in volume?

是的，當然。當然，那——是的，這說得通。那第二個主題，關於聯運（intermodal）列車長度，馬士基（Maersk）的業務影響如何——你們在馬士基和其他領域都有不錯的運量成長，你們有看到列車長度改善嗎？還是因為新增運量而看到開行班次（train starts）增加？

We saw both. The train lengths did in fact improve and then in a couple of OD [pairs], specific OD pairs we had additional train starts.

兩者都有。列車長度確實有改善，而且在幾個特定的 OD（起訖地）配對上，我們也增加了開行班次。

Okay, but -- can you give a sense of overall how much train length was up?

好的，不過——你能否大致說明一下，整體而言列車長度增加了多少？

Tom, this is Oscar. Not on intermodal. But we still have plenty of capacity there. I think in the intermodal world we have 10% to 15% capacity on these areas. So we'll continue to put a lot of the volume that we're getting onto that network. The extra starts was due to new markets for our new customer.

Tom，我是Oscar。不在聯運（intermodal）這塊。但我們那邊仍然有充足的運能。我認為在聯運領域，這些區域我們大概還有10%到15%的運能。所以我們會持續把目前拿到的許多貨量放到那個網路上。額外的開行（starts）是因為我們新客戶帶來的新市場。

Okay, great. Thanks for the time.

好的，很棒。謝謝你撥冗。

Scott Group, Wolfe Trahan.

Scott Group，Wolfe Trahan。

Clarence, I'm wondering, can you give us the breakdown of the met verse the thermal exports in the quarter? And then can you talk about -- how do you think about the balance between volume and pricing in your different coal segments? I understand that the export met tariffs are down starting in April, but how do we think about contractual, export met and thermal rates this year?

Clarence，我想請問，你能否提供本季冶金煤（met）與動力煤（thermal）出口的拆分？另外你能談談——你如何在不同煤炭分部中看待「貨量」與「定價」之間的平衡嗎？我理解出口冶金煤的運價（tariffs）自4月起下調，但我們今年該如何看待合約項下、出口冶金煤與動力煤的費率？

And then I guess maybe longer-term or this year, how do we think about the pricing strategy in the utility business? Can you continue to get rate increases or do you think you have to think about slowing or even cutting the utility coal rates going forward?

然後我想，可能更長期或就今年而言，我們該如何看待公用事業（utility）業務的定價策略？你們還能持續調漲費率嗎？還是你認為未來必須考慮放緩，甚至下調公用事業煤炭運價？

On the first question the split between the thermal and the metallurgical for us in the first quarter was almost 50-50. And how do you view pricing in the mid-term here? Obviously the metallurgical prices will start to mitigate some over the next few months. As you saw the fact that we took our tariff rates already down as we're trying to price to the market.

第一個問題，我們第一季動力煤與冶金煤的占比幾乎是50對50。至於你問的中期定價怎麼看？很明顯，冶金煤的價格在接下來幾個月會開始有所回落。如你所見，我們已經把運價下調，因為我們正試著依市場來定價。

The thermal rates have historically carried a lower transportation cost as well as lower a coal price in the marketplace. So you'll see that mix change impact our same-store sales pricing in the coal business as we move forward.

動力煤的運輸成本歷來較低，而且市場上的煤價也較低。因此，隨著我們往前走，你會看到這種組合變化會影響我們煤炭業務的同店銷售（same-store sales）定價。

And then on your third question there, which is how do we look at utility coal prices going forward, we're going to price to the marketplace in those utility markets going forward. And as that market develops over time we'll be able to give you a clearer picture.

至於你第三個問題，也就是未來公用事業煤價怎麼看，我們會在那些公用事業市場依市場狀況來定價。而隨著市場隨時間發展，我們也能給你更清楚的圖像。

And a lot of those contracts have built in escalators, don't they?

而且很多合約都有內建調價條款（escalators），對吧？

They do.

是的。

The 50-50 split on net versus thermal, how is that on a year-over-year standpoint for the two?

冶金煤對動力煤的50對50拆分，若以年對年來看，兩者的變化如何？

Well, (multiple speakers) last year the mix on a -- for a year basis was about 65-35 in favor of met.

嗯，（多位講者）去年如果以全年來看，組合大約是65對35，偏向冶金煤。

Okay, great. And then just second thing if I can, just in terms of some of the alternative energy things, how big at this point is the crude oil and the frac business? And what kind of growth are you thinking about in those markets that can help offset some of the pressure in coal?

好的，很棒。另外如果可以再問第二點，就一些替代能源相關的項目而言，目前原油與壓裂（frac）業務的規模有多大？你們預期這些市場會有什麼樣的成長，能夠幫助抵消煤炭的一些壓力？

Well, the frac sand market is very robust now and it's becoming even, in the near term, better for CSX in our franchise because a lot of the drilling is moving to Western Pennsylvania and Eastern Ohio, that's a positive move for us. In fact, we added frac sand cars to our fleet last year and again this year.

嗯，壓裂砂（frac sand）市場目前非常強勁，而且短期內對CSX在我們的營運版圖（franchise）上會變得更好，因為許多鑽探正移往賓州西部與俄亥俄州東部，這對我們是正面因素。事實上，我們去年以及今年都增加了壓裂砂車輛到我們的車隊。

We've moved some crude by rail; we have some contracts in place to move some more crude by rail. I wish it was as big on us as it is the western carriers, but it's not. And we think it's a future market though that will develop nicely for us.

我們也有用鐵路運輸一些原油；我們也已簽訂一些合約，將以鐵路運更多原油。我希望它對我們的規模能像對西部鐵路業者那樣大，但目前還不是。不過我們認為這是個未來市場，會為我們帶來不錯的發展。

All right, thanks for the time, appreciate it.

好的，謝謝你撥冗，感謝。

Chris Wetherbee, Citi Investment Research.

Chris Wetherbee，花旗投資研究（Citi Investment Research）。

On coal yield, I just want to try to understand sequentially. As you move from the first quarter to the second quarter outside of some of the metallurgical tariffs on export coal changing on April 1, how much of the business kind of gets repriced in that interim? Or how should we think about the change sequentially in the rest of the business? Or is there a piece of that business that gets repriced or does it roughly stay the same kind of quarter to quarter?

關於煤炭單位收益（yield），我想按季來理解一下。從第一季到第二季，除了4月1日出口煤的部分冶金煤運價調整之外，中間大概有多少業務會重新定價？或者我們應該如何看待其餘業務按季的變化？是否有一部分業務會重新定價，還是大致上每季之間差不多？

Well, you'll see a couple of things in the pricing. One is that the metallurgical coal will not have the same pricing characteristics this year that it had last year; you can read that real simple, it will be cheaper rates for the metallurgical coal. The thermal coal is mostly all under contract, under an annual contract and has already been priced and is in place.

嗯，你會在定價上看到幾件事。第一，冶金煤今年不會有去年那樣的定價特性；很簡單地說，冶金煤的費率會更便宜。動力煤幾乎全部都在合約之下，是年度合約，價格已經訂好並且已到位。

And then just on the rest of your coal business, the domestic business which is utility and the domestic met. Is there any reason to think that there will be meaningful amounts of business repricing between first quarter and second quarter?

那再就你其餘的煤炭業務而言，國內業務也就是公用事業與國內冶金煤。有任何理由認為第一季到第二季之間會有顯著的業務量重新定價嗎？

No, there is none.

沒有，沒有。

Okay, there's none there. Okay, that's helpful. And then switching gears just to headcount for a second. When you think about the level of employees you have furloughed at this point, when you look out at the weakness that you're expecting for the quarter in the domestic side of the business on coal, do you feel like you're at the right point there? Do you need to take any further steps or is headcount, based on what Fred has said, kind of should be flattish going forward overall for the business?

好的，那邊沒有。好的，這很有幫助。接著換個話題，談一下人力。以你們目前的停薪留職（furloughed）員工規模來看，考量你們預期本季煤炭國內業務的疲弱，你覺得目前的水位合適嗎？還需要採取進一步措施嗎？或者依Fred所說，整體而言未來人力應該大致持平？

Yes, I think that's -- the right place to be thinking about is it's flat. Obviously we'll adjust up and down depending on the demand levels. But right now our crystal ball is saying that we're in a pretty good place.

是的，我認為——正確的思考方向就是持平。當然我們會依需求水準上上下下調整。但就目前而言，我們的「水晶球」顯示我們的位置相當不錯。

Okay, great, that's very helpful. Thanks for the time.

好的，很棒，這非常有幫助。謝謝你撥冗。

Chris Ceraso, Credit Suisse.

Chris Ceraso，瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）。

Just a couple of quick ones. I know you mentioned that longer-term in the domestic utility coal market you would so-called price to the market. But maybe you can give us a little more detail on how to think about this in terms of things like what proportion of your utility customers are regulated verse competitive and maybe what proportion of your customers have capacity to switch to gas versus those that don't.

我有幾個很快的問題。我知道你提到，長期來看在國內公用事業煤炭市場你們會所謂「依市場定價」。但也許你能再多給一些細節，讓我們理解例如你們的公用事業客戶中，受監管（regulated）與競爭型（competitive）的比例各是多少；以及你們客戶中，有多少具備改用天然氣的能力、又有多少不具備。

Chris, I don't have that number off the top of my head.

Chris，我一時沒有那個數字。

Okay. Do you have a ball park? Is it 60% or 70% of your customers are regulated, anything close?

好的。那你有個大概區間嗎？例如60%或70%的客戶是受監管的，接近這樣嗎？

I don't want to guess on a data point that I just don't have the facts on.

我不想在沒有事實依據的數據點上猜測。

Okay. Maybe one for Oscar then. You mentioned that you're on track for the $130 million. Can you give us a number and then maybe more importantly, do you have a rough estimate of how much benefit you're deriving from the improvements in your velocity and dwell and performance? Is it 50 basis points worth of OR? Is it 100? How do you -- you're kind of in a unique position as a finance guy/CFO that became an operations guy, so maybe you've got some insight on that front.

好的。那可能問Oscar一題。你提到你們正按計畫達成1.3億美元。你能給我們一個數字嗎？更重要的是，你能否粗估一下，你們從速度（velocity）、停留時間（dwell）與績效改善中獲得了多少效益？相當於營運比率（OR）改善50個基點嗎？還是100個基點？你——你作為財務人/CFO轉成營運負責人，處在一個相當獨特的位置，也許你在這方面有些洞見。

Chris, I've forgotten how to do all that math. It's amazing how quickly it changes, Chris.

Chris，我已經忘了那些數學要怎麼算了。變化之快真是令人驚訝，Chris。

I don't believe you, Oscar.

我不相信你，Oscar。

We are well on path and feel very comfortable about the $130-million-plus number. We're not yet prepared to give a full number with regards to that, but will probably do that here in the next couple of quarters.

我們進展順利，對於超過1.3億美元的數字感到非常有把握。我們目前還沒準備好就此給出完整數字，但可能會在接下來幾個季度內提供。

And with regards to the operating ratio performance, I mean it's always been a big factor in that incremental margin and I don't want to take any particular number on that one. But it's -- the important part is over the course of the year our productivity efforts are well -- start very well and will continue for the rest of the year.

至於營運比率（operating ratio）的表現，我的意思是，它一直都是影響增量利潤率的一個重要因素，我不想在這點上給出任何特定數字。但重點是，在今年的過程中，我們的生產力提升工作開局非常好，並且會在今年剩餘時間持續推進。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Justin Yagerman, Deutsche Bank.

Justin Yagerman，德意志銀行。

Hey, good morning, guys its Rob Salmon on for Justin. I guess as a follow-up to the last question regarding kind of the productivity tailwinds, if I think about this on a CapEx basis. If you guys can maintain these productivity levels looking forward does that change the percentage of revenue that you think you should be deploying for CapEx looking forward?

嘿，各位早安，我是代替Justin的Rob Salmon。我想針對上一題關於生產力順風的問題追問一下，若從資本支出（CapEx）的角度來看。如果你們未來能維持這些生產力水準，是否會改變你們認為未來應投入於資本支出的營收占比？

No, I don't think that changes. I think we've been consistent around 16% to 17% and for the next few years that looks like the right place to be.

不，我不認為那會改變。我想我們一直維持在約16%到17%，而在未來幾年看起來這仍是合適的水準。

All right, that's helpful. And then going back to the utility coal domestically, if we think about this business longer-term and if we've got a secular shift from the base load capacity to more of the surge or supplemental capacity when electric generating demand is much higher, does that change your philosophy about your ability to price?

好，這很有幫助。接著回到國內公用事業用煤（utility coal），如果我們從長期來看這項業務，並且如果基載（base load）容量出現結構性轉移，轉向更多尖峰或補充（surge or supplemental）容量、也就是在發電需求更高時才使用，這是否會改變你們對定價能力的看法？

And if you do get a switch at one of your utilities, is there a corresponding contract clause which has a step up in terms of underlying price because the business becomes less visible and much more volatile if you're in that section? Any color would be really helpful.

而且如果你們的某家公用事業客戶確實發生這種轉換，合約中是否有相對應的條款，會因為業務能見度降低、波動性變大，而在基礎價格上有一個上調（step up）？任何補充說明都會很有幫助。

Okay, I'll answer the second question first. I can't discuss publicly any of our provisions in our contracts with our customers as to how the rates change and move up or down. I can tell you that if this is in fact a secular change in the natural gas, that the railroads and the utilities will have to sit down because what we can't do is build the church for Easter Sunday, if you'll pardon the cliche.

好的，我先回答第二個問題。我無法公開討論我們與客戶合約中的任何條款，包括費率如何上調或下調。我可以告訴你的是，如果這確實是天然氣方面的結構性變化，那麼鐵路公司與公用事業公司就必須坐下來談，因為我們不能只為了復活節星期天就蓋一座教堂——請原諒這個老套比喻。

And we've got to be able to resource -- Oscar has to be able to resource his operations here to some practical level in order to handle this. So I think there will end up being a common ground reached between the carriers, the coal suppliers and the utilities as we move forward.

而且我們必須能夠配置資源——Oscar必須能把他的營運資源配置到某個實際可行的水準，才能應付這種情況。所以我認為，隨著我們往前走，承運商、煤炭供應商與公用事業公司之間最終會找到一個共同立場。

When you think about that in light of kind of the much higher CapEx that's required for some of these utilities because the tracks are built explicitly for that customer, what sort of step up should we expect in pricing over time, if it is a secular trend, to justify reinvestment in those track?

若考量到某些公用事業客戶需要更高的資本支出，因為軌道是專為該客戶而建，若這是一個結構性趨勢，隨著時間推移，為了合理化對這些軌道的再投資，我們應該預期定價會上調到什麼程度？

I'm not sure I have an opinion on that. Most of the track structures that the utilities have essentially are loop tracks designed to unload the coal with belts. So I'm not sure where you're headed.

我不確定我對此有什麼看法。公用事業那邊的大多數軌道結構基本上是環狀線（loop track），用輸送帶卸煤。所以我不太確定你想問的方向是什麼。

I guess the track -- you'd have incremental track which would need maintenance to serve the utilities and it's on -- my understanding is that the routes that you run are more exclusive for the coal franchise. And if you're seeing less domestic coal, to me that would imply you would probably need to see higher pricing on the business to justify the continued reinvestment. Is that a fair conclusion to be drawing or are we missing something there?

我的意思是，為了服務公用事業客戶，你們會有需要維護的增量軌道——而且據我理解，你們運行的路線對煤炭專營（coal franchise）而言更具排他性。如果你們看到國內煤炭量減少，對我來說，這意味著你們可能需要在這項業務上看到更高的定價，才能合理化持續再投資。這樣的結論合理嗎？還是我們漏掉了什麼？

This is Michael. I think what I'd say, Rob, is a lot of the line haul movement from the mining areas to the utility itself uses lines that we use for Intermodal merchandise that are common lines. The only place we'd have the issue you're alluding to is perhaps in the coalfields themselves. And as Clarence said, at that utilities it's just a little loop track there, it's not a big deal. So it would be mainly in the coal mining areas.

我是Michael。Rob，我想我會這麼說：從礦區到公用事業客戶本身的許多幹線運輸（line haul）路段，使用的是我們也用於聯運（Intermodal）與一般貨運（merchandise）的共用線路。你所暗示的那種問題，可能只會出現在煤田本身。而且如Clarence所說，在公用事業端只是小小一段環狀線，並不是什麼大問題。所以主要會是在煤礦區域。

We do see good vibrancy in the export market longer term which I think will help support that infrastructure. But to Clarence's earlier comment -- and it's probably too early in this evolution to really get specific -- there will the dialogues between us and the utility companies of how we ensure that they have the capacity they need, but that we also have the predictability that we need and that's yet to be worked out.

我們確實看到出口市場在長期仍相當有活力，我認為這將有助於支撐那套基礎設施。但回到Clarence先前的評論——而且在這個演變階段要講得很具體可能還太早——我們與公用事業公司之間將會有對話，討論如何確保他們擁有所需的運能，同時也讓我們擁有所需的可預測性；這部分仍有待協商。

That's really helpful. Thanks a lot for the color.

這真的很有幫助。非常感謝你的補充說明。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclay's.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊。

Good morning, gentlemen, and I'm sure you'll be thrilled to get another question on coal. Can you just remind us how much contract repricing did you have on the domestic side last year?

各位早安，先生們，我相信你們會很「開心」又收到一個關於煤炭的問題。能否提醒我們，去年國內業務這邊有多少合約重新定價（contract repricing）？

We had one contract last -- of significance, one significant contract last year.

去年我們有一份合約——具重要性的一份，去年有一份重要合約。

And we should be assuming that helped the same store comps last year, right?

那我們應該假設這也推升了你們去年的同店比較（same store comps），對吧？

That's right, yes.

沒錯，是的。

Okay. And maybe just switching back to this $130 million cost offset, Oscar. How much of that is really associated with idling some of your coal assets right now? Or should we be thinking this is incremental to what you're doing in the business today? How much of that run rate did we see in the first quarter, how much more is coming throughout the year?

好的。另外再切回這1.3億美元的成本抵銷（cost offset），Oscar。其中有多少其實是與你們目前閒置（idling）部分煤炭資產有關？或者我們應該把它視為在你們現有業務運作之上的增量？第一季我們看到了多少這樣的年化水準（run rate），而今年其餘時間還會再增加多少？

Yes, so the coal asset reduction is an incremental piece. The $130 million productivity is an ongoing initiative that we have in the Company and as business conditions allow we'll take more of that cost management aspect. So it will be incremental to our $130 million.

是的，所以煤炭資產縮減是一個增量項目。這1.3億美元的生產力提升是我們公司持續推動的計畫，而在業務狀況允許時，我們會在成本管理面向採取更多措施。因此，它會是我們1.3億美元之外的增量。

And I think a question was asked before in a couple different manners to try to ascertain what the actual number was in the first quarter. It was significant; we've made great progress to the number we have for the year. Not quite ready to share the full year number just yet.

而且我想先前有人用幾種不同方式問過，想釐清第一季的實際數字。那是相當可觀的；我們朝向今年目標的數字已取得很大進展。但目前還沒準備好分享全年完整數字。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Jason Seidl, Dahlman Rose.

Jason Seidl，Dahlman Rose。

Two quick questions, I'll start with a non-coal one first for you. Oscar, sticking with that productivity number, how much of the productivity gains in 1Q were just sort of weather-related? I have to imagine there was some benefit from not having winter for you guys?

兩個快速問題，我先從一個非煤炭的問題開始。Oscar，延續那個生產力數字，第一季的生產力提升有多少只是與天氣相關？我想你們應該多少受惠於沒有冬季天候影響吧？

Yes, yes, gosh, it's been a great quarter for the industry with regards to that and we'll take it. Trying to quantify that is a little bit more difficult. We tend to be better at quantifying the impact when we hit adverse conditions. But let me tell you how I've kind of looked at it to in essence assure myself that we've actually run better.

是的，是的，天啊，就這點而言，這對整個產業來說都是很棒的一季，我們也樂於接受。要量化這點會比較困難。我們通常更擅長在遭遇不利條件時去量化其影響。但我可以告訴你，我是如何看待這件事，以便在本質上讓自己確信我們確實運行得更好。

If you take the sequential view from the fourth quarter of last year to this quarter, it was roughly the same kind of quarter, roughly same level of work load, roughly same level of resources and roughly to some degree the same kind of weather pattern.

如果你用序列（sequential）的角度，從去年第四季到本季來看，這大致上是相同類型的一季，工作量大致相同、資源水準大致相同，而且在某種程度上天氣型態也大致相同。

And the quarter-over-quarter sequential improvement, as our charts talk about, on those trend lines actually improved. So there was definite improvement sequentially. The mild weather helped both quarters, so -- but it's hard to quantify specifically.

而且如同我們的圖表在那些趨勢線上所呈現的，按季（環比）的連續改善其實是有提升的。所以環比確實有改善。溫和的天氣對兩個季度都有幫助，所以——但很難具體量化。

But you're confident that you guys are headed in the right direction ex weather?

但撇除天氣因素，你們有信心你們正朝正確方向前進？

And that's how I looked at it. If you look at the sequential numbers, again roughly the same kind of quarter, that's where I've been able to make that statement.

我就是這樣看待的。如果你看環比數字，同樣大致是類似的一季，這也是我能做出那個判斷的依據。

Okay. So my second one is going to be on coal, I apologize. When we're looking at the -- you guys are obviously more positive on the thermal side. When you're looking on the thermal, the OR, is the arm spread for our US coal still in the money or are you just moving coal that's been booked in the past on backlog?

好的。那我第二個問題會談到煤炭，先說聲抱歉。當我們看——你們顯然對動力煤那一端更正面。當你看動力煤、OR（營運比率）時，我們美國煤炭的 ARM 利差目前仍然有利可圖（in the money），還是你們只是把過去已簽約、在積壓訂單中的煤運出去？

Yes, we're still in the money.

是的，我們仍然有利可圖。

You're still in the money.

你們仍然有利可圖。

Still in the money -- barely, but we're there.

仍然有利可圖——勉強，但還在。

Well, that's all you need. All right, thanks for the time as always, guys.

嗯，那就夠了。好，謝謝你們一如既往撥冗。

John Larkin, Stifel Nicolaus.

John Larkin，Stifel Nicolaus。

First question relates to your comment that you continue to expect that this year will be a record year for EPS. Does that comment apply to each individual quarter as well?

第一個問題是關於你們提到仍預期今年將是每股盈餘（EPS）的創紀錄一年。這個說法也適用於每一個單季嗎？

I think we are forecasting on a full-year basis, we try and stay out of forecasting on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

我想我們是以全年為基礎在做預測，我們盡量避免逐季預測。

I'm just trying to get a handle on the second quarter in particular because you've been so careful in pointing out that it's going to be the toughest quarter with respect to the coal comps on the utility side.

我主要是想掌握第二季的情況，特別是因為你們一直很謹慎地指出，就公用事業端的煤炭比較基期而言，第二季會是最艱難的一季。

Yes, no, it is going to be the toughest quarter and we're going to be seeing a little bit more variability in the second half as we lap some of the resource additions and most of the -- the coal head will moderate but the comment is really about the full year.

是的，沒錯，第二季會是最艱難的一季；而且在下半年，當我們與一些資源新增量（resource additions）形成比較基期後，波動性會稍微更大一些；另外，大部分——煤炭的逆風會趨於緩和，但那個評論主要是針對全年。

Thank you. And then just maybe as a follow on, we talked about the weather in the first quarter. Is it safe to say that there were fewer or less severe fuel headwinds in the first quarter relative to the first quarter of 2011? In other words, did fuel rise at a slower pace? And was that somehow reflected in the results?

謝謝。接著可能再追問一下，我們談到第一季的天氣。是否可以說，與2011年第一季相比，今年第一季燃料方面的逆風較少或較不嚴重？換句話說，燃料上漲速度是否較慢？而這是否在某種程度上反映在業績結果中？

In terms of just the lag piece first, we did have a little bit of a negative lag in the first quarter; we had an even greater lag last year in the first quarter. In terms of fuel efficiency, as you saw we had a little deterioration there. But that's predominately due to the fact that we have more locomotives on our property here in the first quarter and the same thing was true in the fourth quarter. So that's really the reason for the degradation in the efficiency numbers.

先就「滯後」這一塊來說，我們第一季確實有一點負向滯後；去年第一季的滯後更大。就燃油效率而言，如你所見我們有些許惡化。但那主要是因為我們第一季在自有資產上配置了更多機車，第四季也是同樣情況。所以效率數字惡化的原因主要就在這裡。

(Multiple speakers) the headwind in both quarters, a little bit less in this year, right?

（多位講者）兩個季度都有逆風，今年稍微小一點，對吧？

Correct.

正確。

But you don't care to quantify that?

但你不方便量化？

The in-quarter lag was $15 million here in the first quarter in terms of the lag.

以第一季來看，當季滯後金額是1,500萬美元。

It was what, $35 million last year?

去年是多少，3,500萬美元？

Yes, it was about $35 million last year, that is correct.

是的，去年大約是3,500萬美元，沒錯。

That's very helpful. Thank you very much.

這非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Hey, John, this is Clarence. Just to elaborate on the question you asked Fredrik. Our business this year -- this quarter, although the volume was only up 1% in total, if you take coal out of that mix our business was up 6%. And if you look at that first slide that we had in my presentation, 90% of all of our business is either stable or growing. So the way I look at the second quarter other than coal is I'd look at it very positively.

嗨，John，我是Clarence。補充一下你問Fredrik的問題。我們今年——這一季，雖然總量只成長1%，但如果把煤炭從組合中剔除，我們的業務成長了6%。而且如果你看我簡報的第一張投影片，我們所有業務中有90%是穩定或成長的。所以我看第二季，除了煤炭之外，我會非常正面地看待。

Thanks for the color, Clarence.

謝謝補充說明，Clarence。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Securities.

Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Securities。

Wanted to ask you something a little bit broader. You've indicated that you are still on track to achieve a 65% OR by 2015 and I think the market wanted to hear that. If I recall at your Analyst Day last year you did describe that as growing to 65%. So I wonder if you could just elaborate on the relative importance of pulling harder on the cost lever versus a renewed focus on business development to stay on track.

想問一個更宏觀一點的問題。你們表示仍按計畫在2015年前達成65%的OR（營運比率），我想市場也希望聽到這點。如果我沒記錯，你們去年分析師日確實把它描述為「成長到65%」。所以我想請你們再多談談：為了維持進度，相較於更用力拉動成本槓桿，與重新聚焦業務開發，兩者的相對重要性如何？

This is Mike, Cherilyn. I guess if we look at it, we knew when we were going to grow to 65% it was really three components -- the pricing above inflation which we're still very confident about; growing our business; and the productivity of $130 million to $140 million per year.

我是Mike，Cherilyn。我想如果我們來看，當初我們知道要成長到65%，主要是三個組成——高於通膨的定價（我們仍非常有信心）；擴大業務規模；以及每年1.3億到1.4億美元的生產力提升。

So as we look at it now, we're still going to be getting that $130 million to $140 million. We'll strive for more because obviously the coal dragging down some probably implies or impels us to think a little bit more on the productivity side. But the growth element is still pretty critical and we're very excited about what we're seeing in our intermodal business especially.

所以以目前來看，我們仍會拿到那每年1.3億到1.4億美元。我們也會努力做得更多，因為煤炭拖累了一些，可能意味著或促使我們在生產力面更進一步思考。但成長這個要素仍然相當關鍵，我們對於特別是在我們的聯運（intermodal）業務所看到的情況感到非常振奮。

We've been growing that domestic intermodal 6% to 7% for the last six or seven years and we think the conditions in the highway trucking is going to continue to fuel that. So I'd say the basic thematics we laid out in our earnings release are still there. As Fredrik alluded to earlier, it's just a little bit more challenging with some of the loss of that utility coal business.

過去六、七年，我們國內聯運每年成長6%到7%，而我們認為公路卡車運輸的環境將持續推動這股動能。所以我會說，我們在財報新聞稿中提出的基本主題仍然成立。如Fredrik先前提到的，只是因為部分公用事業煤炭業務流失，挑戰稍微更大一些。

So it's still going to be about the great service Oscar and his team are going to provide for us. And as he alluded to and I think it's very true, better service is cheaper. So we think the discipline around that will help us grow the business as well as produce the cost efficiencies we need.

所以仍然會仰賴Oscar和他的團隊為我們提供的卓越服務。而且如他所提到、我也認為非常正確的是，更好的服務成本更低。因此我們認為，圍繞這點的紀律將有助於我們擴大業務，同時也產出我們所需的成本效率。

Okay, and my second question quickly, it did catch my notice that if you annualized the 12.5 million tons of export coal in the quarter you effectively were operating at the high end of what you've indicated is the annual capacity of that export coal network as currently configured. Did that change your view of current capacity assuming that the demand is there?

好的，那我第二個問題很快：我注意到，如果把本季1,250萬噸的出口煤年化，你們實際上是在你們所說、以目前配置下出口煤網路年產能區間的高端在運作。在假設需求存在的情況下，這是否改變了你們對目前產能的看法？

Cherilyn, this is Clarence Gooden. It's interesting you'd asked that question because we discussed that this morning in some prep. And that is that the number that we used last year was 45 million tons to 50 million tons in capacity. What's happened is our people handling this coal have got more experience. As the dumpers and stuff now have been replaced and the maintenance and all has been caught up where a lot of that capacity was idle, we feel very comfortable in that range.

Cherilyn，我是Clarence Gooden。你問這個問題很有意思，因為我們今天早上在一些會前準備時也討論過。我們去年使用的數字是產能4,500萬到5,000萬噸。目前的情況是，我們處理這些煤炭的人員更有經驗了。隨著卸煤機等設備已更換、維修保養也追上進度，先前有不少產能是閒置的；因此我們對這個區間感到非常有把握。

Okay, that's it for me. Thank you.

好的，我就這些。謝謝。

Ben Hartford, Baird.

Ben Hartford，Baird。

A question I guess on the CapEx side. Into lower than expected utility coal volumes, are we seeing a shift in some of that CapEx allocation to some of the other growth oriented commodities? Can you talk a little bit about maintaining that CapEx bucket for 2012 despite the fact that we're seeing coal volumes as weak as we are?

我想問一下資本支出（CapEx）方面。在公用事業煤炭運量低於預期的情況下，我們是否看到部分CapEx配置轉向其他以成長為導向的品類？儘管煤炭運量像現在這麼疲弱，你們能否談談為何仍維持2012年的CapEx額度？

Yes, on the utility coal side most of our capital -- there's very little capital that actually goes into the car side --

是的，在公用事業煤這一塊，我們的大部分資本——實際上投入到車輛端的資本非常少——

Per utility.

以公用事業為主。

-- per utility coal. So on -- and then if you look at our overall spend and coupling that with Clarence's comment that 90% of the business is doing well, there's some shifting occurring really on the maintenance side perhaps, but it really isn't that much of a difference. And export coal still remains very strong. So there it isn't a lot of changing going on.

——以公用事業煤為主。所以——然後如果你看我們整體支出，再結合 Clarence 的評論：90% 的業務表現良好，確實可能在維修端出現一些調整，但差異其實不大。而出口煤仍然非常強勁。所以那邊並沒有太多變化。

Yes, almost all that utility coal moves to privately owned equipment.

是的，幾乎所有那部分公用事業煤都轉由民營自有設備運輸。

Ben, it's Oscar. Clearly where there are very specific needs for a specific utility customer that we don't see a large forecast for we are clearly moderating. But I think to Fred's point, it's not as significant as you'd think given the fungibility of our track network that we use and the fact that we are growing our business and all of the other aspects besides that.

Ben，我是 Oscar。很明顯，對於某個特定公用事業客戶的非常具體需求、而我們又看不到大量預測的部分，我們確實在做降溫調整。但我想呼應 Fred 的觀點，考量到我們所使用的軌道網路具有可替代性（通用性），以及我們在除此之外的各個面向都在成長，這件事的影響並沒有你想像的那麼大。

Okay, good. And then I guess just to provide a little bit more context to the OR target in light of coal volumes being as weak. Can you talk about what that contemplates in terms of your expectation for the utility coal market over the next three years as we near 2015 and kind of what the underlying maybe industrial production growth assumptions might be and continued productivity gains? Can you provide a little bit of context in terms of how that trajectory might shape up in light of what we've seen in 2012 from a demand environment?

好的，很好。接著我想在煤炭運量如此疲弱的情況下，請你們再多提供一些關於 OR 目標的背景。你們能談談這個目標對未來三年、隨著我們接近 2015 年時公用事業煤市場的預期是什麼？以及底層可能的工業生產成長假設、與持續的生產力提升？能否就我們在 2012 年需求環境所看到的情況，提供一些脈絡，說明那條軌跡可能會如何發展？

Yes, if you look at the overall target of giving 65% and, as Michael indicated and I indicated in my comments, it's obviously more difficult now than it was a year ago. There are certain pillars that need to be achieved in order to get there. And clearly utility coal has to stabilize at some point. We don't know when that is, if that is at some time later this year or early 2013, but it has to stabilize. We can't have this headwind along the way, that obviously doesn't work.

是的，如果你看我們整體目標是做到 65%，而且如 Michael 所指出、我在評論中也提到的，現在顯然比一年前更困難。要達到那個目標，需要達成幾個特定支柱。而且很明顯，公用事業煤必須在某個時間點趨於穩定。我們不知道那會在何時發生，可能是今年稍晚或 2013 年初，但它必須穩定下來。我們不能一路都承受這種逆風，這顯然行不通。

Where that specifically is I think -- I don't think we're in a position to say, but it has to stabilize. And then if you look at the other components on the top-line side, we -- you need a robust economic recovery that continues in line with what we've seen here. You need our continued inflation plus pricing. And you probably needs export coal to stay as robust as we're seeing here right now.

至於具體會落在什麼水準，我想——我不認為我們現在有條件去說，但它必須穩定。然後如果你看營收端的其他組成，我們——你需要一個強勁的經濟復甦，並且延續我們目前所看到的走勢。你需要我們持續做到通膨加成的定價。而且你可能也需要出口煤維持像我們現在看到的這麼強勁。

And then on the productivity side, as Mike alluded to before, we need to continue to see that $130-million-plus in order to get there. So we need to hit on all cylinders in order to still achieve that number.

然後在生產力端，如 Mike 先前提到的，我們需要持續看到超過 1.3 億美元的水準，才能達成。所以我們必須各方面都火力全開，才能仍然達到那個數字。

Okay, great. Thanks for the time.

好的，很棒。謝謝你撥冗。

Peter Nesvold, Jefferies.

Jefferies 的 Peter Nesvold。

I actually want to follow up on one of the comments that Fredrik just made it because Central Ap has been in secular decline for years and certainly that's not new. What we've probably seen here in the last three to six months is that the declines have been more accelerated.

我其實想追問 Fredrik 剛才的一個評論，因為中阿帕拉契（Central Ap）多年來一直處於結構性下滑，這當然不是新鮮事。我們在過去三到六個月看到的，可能是下滑速度更快了。

Fredrik, you just said that utility coal headwinds have to bottom out at some point, but I think there's a segment of the investment community right now that doesn't think it's going to stabilize, at least out of Central Ap.

Fredrik，你剛才說公用事業煤的逆風終究必須在某個時間點觸底，但我認為目前投資圈裡有一部分人不認為它會穩定下來，至少在中阿帕拉契這一塊不會。

In the scenario in which you don't really get stabilization over the next one to two years in Central Ap what do you do? What operationally can you do in order to take costs out and can you get back to a 50% incremental margin as Central Ap continues to be a bit of a runoff business over time?

在一種情境下，如果未來一到兩年中阿帕拉契並沒有真正出現穩定，你們會怎麼做？在營運上你們能做什麼來降低成本？而且當中阿帕拉契隨時間推移持續有點像逐步退出（runoff）的業務時，你們能否回到 50% 的增量利潤率？

Peter, this is Michael and you're tied into Central Ap. I think we think more of our total coal portfolio, the Illinois Basin and the Pittsburgh seam coals are growing in providence because of their cost characteristics. So we think we will see some shifting -- have been seeing shifting from cap to Central Ap over to Illinois Basin and to the Pittsburgh 8 Seam over the last several years. We expect that to continue.

Peter，我是 Michael，而你的問題聚焦在中阿帕拉契。我想我們更是從整體煤炭組合來看：伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin）以及匹茲堡煤層（Pittsburgh seam）的煤，因其成本特性而在重要性上逐漸提升、並在成長。所以我們認為會看到一些轉移——過去幾年我們已經看到從中阿帕拉契轉向伊利諾伊盆地與 Pittsburgh 8 煤層。我們預期這會持續。

As to the end use by the utility companies, I think that's more what Fredrik was referring to. We think that will stabilize at some point because there will be the need for the generating capacity to meet the electrical demands. So a lot of the fall out we're seeing right now has been largely those plants that were built in the '50s and '60s and were going to go out, in our view, by 2014 or '15 anyway, it's just been accelerated by the weak demand due to the weather and the natural gas prices.

至於公用事業公司的終端用途，我想那更是 Fredrik 所指的部分。我們認為那在某個時間點會穩定下來，因為為了滿足用電需求，仍然需要發電容量。所以我們現在看到的大部分退出，主要是那些在 1950、1960 年代建造的電廠；依我們看法，它們本來就會在 2014 或 2015 年前後退場，只是因為天氣造成的需求疲弱以及天然氣價格，讓這件事加速了。

So I think you're right, it was envisioned, it's happened a little quicker, but I think there's going to be a strong base of regular business out there just to meet the electrical demands in the eastern half of the United States. And Clarence, I don't know if you have anything you'd like to add to that.

所以我想你說得對，原本就有這樣的預期，只是發生得更快一些；但我認為市場上仍會有一個穩固的常態業務基礎，單純為了滿足美國東半部的用電需求。Clarence，我不知道你是否想補充？

No, I agree with you, Michael. And plus, I'm not so sure that natural gas is going to stay at $1.95 where it is now, because I don't think the gas companies can afford to allow that to happen and justify the drilling.

沒有，我同意你，Michael。另外，我也不太確定天然氣會一直維持在現在的 1.95 美元，因為我不認為天然氣公司負擔得起讓它一直這樣，並且還能合理化鑽探活動。

Yes, I don't necessarily disagree on that, sub $2 gas remains long-term. But I think that fear is out there in part of the investment community. On slide 26, when you show effectively a U shape recovery in incremental margins though, is this just like a transitional quarter in which you need to reposition equipment in order to move it over to the Illinois Basin and other parts? Or is this based on -- is this kind of predicated on the areas where we're seeing the greatest weakness right now actually start to stabilize looking out 90 to 120 days?

是的，我不一定不同意天然氣長期維持在 2 美元以下。但我認為投資圈的一部分確實存在這種擔憂。在第 26 頁投影片，當你們展示增量利潤率基本呈 U 型復甦時，這是否只是過渡性的季度，你們需要重新配置設備，把它移到伊利諾伊盆地和其他地區？還是說——這其實是建立在我們目前看到最疲弱的區域，在未來 90 到 120 天開始趨於穩定的假設之上？

I think there's a -- as I said, the second quarter -- because of two factors that we mentioned in the presentation? First of all the fact that utility coal continues to be very weak and you couple that with where the export tariff changes that we made and the pricing impact on that, and we have haven't lapped the resource additions that we made in second half of last year, that is what makes that quarter as challenging as it is.

我認為——如我所說，第二季——是因為我們在簡報中提到的兩個因素。首先，公用事業煤持續非常疲弱；再加上我們所做的出口費率（tariff）調整及其定價影響；而且我們尚未跨過（lapped）去年下半年所增加的資源投入，這些使得那一季格外具挑戰性。

Peter, I'd like to address your comment about the markets and the jitteriness. I mean if we just step back as we look at our Company here, so if we go back to 2006 and our domestic utility, about a third of that business has went away over that five- to six-year period.

Peter，我想回應你關於市場與不安情緒的評論。如果我們退一步看我們公司：回到 2006 年，我們的國內公用事業業務，在那五到六年的期間裡大約有三分之一消失了。

And during that period we basically, through the diversity and the strength of our overall markets we serve, we've been able to produce record years five out of six years with the dramatic decline in the utility coal. And right now, as I think Clarence said earlier, it's only about 10% of our portfolio.

而在那段期間，我們基本上透過所服務市場的多元性與整體市場的強勁表現，即使公用事業煤大幅下滑，仍然在六年中有五年創下紀錄。而現在，如我想 Clarence 先前所說，它只占我們組合的大約 10%。

So I think somewhat -- there may be an over concern about that because we have been experiencing this for half a decade and still been able to produce records year after year.

所以我認為某種程度上——大家可能對此過度擔心，因為我們已經經歷了半個十年，仍然能年復一年創下紀錄。

Great, thank you.

很好，謝謝你。

Matt Troy, Susquehanna.

Matt Troy，Susquehanna。

A quick question I just want to clarify. Before -- earlier I think Clarence said that you had -- you guys had not seen any impact from liquidated damages. I assume you mean financial impact, i.e. there's usually a one year look back and we won't hit that until next year. But I would assume some of your utility customers are wanting to and asking to operate at the minimums in their contracts? Is that fair?

我有個簡單問題想釐清一下。之前——我想稍早 Clarence 說你們——你們尚未看到任何來自違約金（liquidated damages）的影響。我猜你指的是財務影響，也就是通常會有一年的回溯期，而我們要到明年才會碰到。但我會假設你們的一些公用事業客戶想要、也在要求按合約中的最低量來運作？這樣說合理嗎？

Yes, that's correct, they are asking to operate at the minimums.

是的，沒錯，他們確實在要求按最低量運作。

Okay, is there --

好的，那有沒有——

Some might not be able to make the minimums. And you're quite right, Matt, it would be a next year issue should they not make the minimums.

有些可能連最低量都達不到。而你說得很對，Matt，如果他們未達最低量，那會是明年的問題。

I'm just trying to take weather out of the equation because only an idiot would try and call that. But I'm trying to understand from a volume perspective what percentage of your coal business domestically is operating currently at those minimums? Is it a minority? Is it about half? Is it a majority? Just directionally trying to understand if weather doesn't help out how much more downside might there be until everyone is operating at those minimums?

我只是想把天氣因素先排除，因為只有白痴才會想去預測那個。但我想從運量角度了解，你們在美國國內的煤炭業務中，目前有多少比例是在那些最低量水準下運作？是少數？大約一半？還是多數？只是方向性地想了解：如果天氣沒有幫上忙，在所有人都降到按最低量運作之前，還可能有多少下行空間？

Well, Matt, that's difficult for me to give you a finite number on. I would tell you that, as we said, we expect the second quarter is going to be -- look a lot like the first, maybe a little worse in the headwinds there, that's number one. Number two, we're working with all of the utilities where they have minimums in there. The utilities themselves are trying to take the minimums they can, they don't want to pay liquidated damages anymore than anyone else.

嗯，Matt，這很難給你一個精確數字。我會說，如同我們提到的，我們預期第二季會——看起來很像第一季，甚至在逆風方面可能更差一些，這是第一點。第二點，我們正與所有合約中有最低量條款的公用事業客戶合作。公用事業本身也在盡量採取他們能採取的最低量，他們不想付違約金，跟任何人一樣。

Us or the coal companies.

我們或煤炭公司。

Us or the coal companies. So, I don't know if that helps you.

我們或煤炭公司。所以，我不知道這樣是否對你有幫助。

Well, it's directionally just trying to figure out the scenario by which we crawl out. I guess, Clarence, last question for you. You've been at this for a while. The take or pays, the liquidated damages, they're in place for a reason, they have been historically. And we've tested them before.

嗯，方向上只是想弄清楚我們爬出來的情境會是什麼樣子。我想，Clarence，最後一個問題。你做這行很久了。「照付不運（take-or-pay）」、違約金，這些條款存在是有原因的，歷來一直如此。而且我們以前也測試過它們。

Are you getting any more incremental push back from utilities saying, listen, this is not sustainable, we'd like to revisit this -- or any signaling that the current contract structure for you and the industry may not work if coal ultimately does become more of a marginal supply or, surge supply? I'm just wondering if the posturing from your customers is changing around what those minimum levels might be. Thanks.

你是否看到公用事業客戶有更多額外的反彈，說：聽著，這不可持續，我們想重新檢視——或有任何訊號顯示，若煤炭最終變成更偏邊際供應或尖峰供應，對你們與整個產業而言，現行合約架構可能行不通？我只是想知道，你們客戶在最低量水準這件事上的姿態是否正在改變。謝謝。

We have had very little negative feedback or push back from any of utilities that we've work with. Now, having said that, we've had a couple of utilities that's called that understand the way things are going in their particular situation that they may be looking at some potential liquidated damages.

我們從任何合作的公用事業那邊收到的負面回饋或反彈都非常少。不過話說回來，我們確實有幾家公用事業來電，表示他們了解在自身特定情況下的走向，可能會面臨一些潛在的違約金。

And what they've said is, hey, let's sit out here and try to work together and solve our problems and it's been all very positive. Now how is that going to impact three, four, five years from now? You know, to your point, I've been doing this a long time and I don't -- my crystal ball gets cloudy when I get out there three, four years.

他們的意思是：嘿，我們坐下來一起合作、解決彼此的問題，而且整體都很正向。那這會如何影響三、四、五年後？你知道，正如你所說，我做這行很久了，但——當我把時間拉到三、四年後，我的水晶球就變得模糊了。

But there will be some change in those relationships, we just -- it's too early to know what they are, Matt, as we discussed earlier.

但那些關係會有一些變化，只是——現在還太早，無法知道會是什麼，Matt，正如我們先前討論的。

But the conversations are rational and controlled, is that fair to assume?

但這些對話是理性且可控的，可以這樣假設嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital.

Walter Spracklin，RBC Capital。

I just have just a few clarification questions. First on the guidance that you're providing for [2011], you mentioned of course record levels. Just to understand, that's on an EBIT basis, not an EPS basis and it includes the roughly $19 million per quarter call it $75 million in deferred -- the deferred income or the deferred gains that you're booking, is that correct?

我有幾個釐清問題。首先，關於你們提供的[2011]年指引，你提到當然是創紀錄水準。我想確認一下，那是以 EBIT 口徑，而不是 EPS 口徑，而且包含你們認列的每季約 1,900 萬美元、也就是大約 7,500 萬美元的遞延——遞延收入或遞延收益，對嗎？

Yes, we're looking at record levels operating income, EBITDA, earnings per share, yes, that would include that $19 million as we will continue the second and third quarter and then moderate out in the fourth quarter.

是的，我們看的是創紀錄水準的營業利益、EBITDA、每股盈餘，是的；那會包含那 1,900 萬美元，我們會在第二、第三季持續如此，然後在第四季趨於緩和。

Perfect, okay. Next question I think is sort of a follow on to Matt's last question there is if -- do you get a sense that any of your utility customers today are taking their minimum volumes because contractually -- contractually to do otherwise would be negative -- that upon the end of that contract do you see risk in provoking that coal to met gas switch that might not be there as long as that contract is in place?

很好，好的。下一個問題，我想算是延續 Matt 剛才最後一題：如果——你是否覺得你們某些公用事業客戶今天之所以只拿最低量，是因為合約上——合約上若不這麼做會有負面後果——那麼在合約到期後，你是否看到風險：可能會促使原本在合約期間不會發生的「煤轉氣（coal-to-met gas switch）」？

In other words, how much of your business do you believe that is running at minimum volumes is at risk of completely going away at the end of the contract?

換句話說，你認為目前以最低量運作的那部分業務，有多少在合約到期後存在完全消失的風險？

Well, if I were speculating on that I would say that to the point Michael made earlier, which is most of the plants that got throttled back here in the near-term were already plants that would -- the CSAPR rules would have effectively taken out between now and 2015.

嗯，如果我要推測的話，我會說如同 Michael 先前提到的重點：近期被降載的多數電廠，本來就是那些——在 CSAPR 規則下，從現在到 2015 年之間基本上會被淘汰的電廠。

To the second point that Michael also made earlier is you've got to have a certain amount of baseload coal just to meet the demand. We have a hot summer here and I think one of our other analysts just mentioned predict the summer -- weather is crazy and I have to a agree with him. But if we have a hot summer here it changes some of the dispatch that you'll see the utilities have.

第二點，Michael 先前也提到：你必須要有一定量的基載煤電才能滿足需求。如果今年夏天很熱，我想我們另一位分析師剛才也提到要預測夏季——天氣很瘋狂，我也同意他的看法。但如果夏天很熱，就會改變你看到公用事業的部分調度（dispatch）。

Okay so -- no, that's very, very helpful. The other quick question here, you've been always targeting pricing plus inflation, a big step down in your tariff rates down 12%. Can you just give us simply put, why is it down so much when you're typically looking at pricing plus inflation?

好的，所以——不，這非常、非常有幫助。另一個快問：你們一直以來都以「定價加通膨」為目標，但你們的運價（tariff）費率大幅下調 12%。你能否簡單說明一下，為什麼會降這麼多？因為你們通常是在追求定價加通膨。

You're talking about the tariff in coal?

你指的是煤炭的運價（tariff）嗎？

Correct.

對。

That was a metallurgical tariff and, if you'll recall, we had taken that tariff up two or three times in the last few years when the boom happened in the metallurgical coal. I don't have the number right here in front of me, but I know in discussions with our coal folks last week that the amount that we've taken down the tariff is still greater than what the tariff rate was when we started taking it up.

那是冶金煤的運價（tariff）。如果你還記得，過去幾年冶金煤景氣大好時，我們把那個運價上調了兩、三次。我手邊沒有確切數字，但我知道上週和我們煤炭團隊討論時提到，我們這次下調後的運價水準，仍然高於我們當初開始調升之前的運價水準。

Okay. Is there -- given that differential, is there still room next year for it to come down but still be above that differential?

好的。那麼——考量到那個差距，明年是否還有空間再下調，但仍高於當初的水準？

On the met side, yes.

在冶金煤那一端，是的。

Okay. That's all my questions, thanks very much.

好的。我的問題就這些，非常感謝。

Jeff Kauffman, Sterne, Agee.

Jeff Kauffman，Sterne, Agee。

Congratulations. Real quick let me ask a non-coal question and then a coal question. The IRA, we're talking about discussions on the East Coast ports. Typically in years where this happens some of the shippers may be talking to you about moving goods at a different time of year than normal in case you get some (inaudible) in the discussions. What have your customers on the international shipping lines indicated in terms of their concerns for later this year?

恭喜。很快問一下：我先問一個非煤炭問題，再問一個煤炭問題。關於 IRA，我們在談東岸港口的協商。通常在發生這種情況的年份，一些托運人可能會跟你們談，為了以防協商中出現一些（聽不清楚），是否要把貨物改在一年中不同於以往的時間運送。你們的國際航運航線客戶，對於今年稍晚的疑慮，迄今表達了哪些看法？

Well, as you probably are aware, the ILA had a very significant policy speech out at the Pacific Maritime, it was about two or three weeks ago, in which they had at least alluded to possible work stoppages on the East Coast. What our customers have told us that they're doing is evaluating any of the East Coast ports of call they have to build contingency plans to divert some of that business to the West Coast. In either event CSX will still haul our share of that business.

嗯，正如各位可能知道的，ILA 在太平洋海事（Pacific Maritime）上發表了一場非常重要的政策演說，大約是兩三週前，其中至少提到了東岸可能出現停工。我們的客戶告訴我們，他們正在評估其所有東岸停靠港，以建立應變計畫，將部分業務改道至西岸。無論如何，CSX 仍將承運我們在該業務中應有的份額。

Okay. And let me ask kind of a more positive question on coal. We've focused a lot on the utility needs, but let's talk about where these utilities are going to source their coal when they do need it. A lot of production shutdowns announced more in Central Ap. Are you seeing any change in the length of haul that your customers are having to get their new coal? And I'm under the assumption as your length of haul increases you're not actually paid by the carload, you're paid by the ton mile. So can you kind of talk about some of these mix effects?

好的。那我想就煤炭問一個比較正面的問題。我們談了很多公用事業的需求，但我們來談談當這些公用事業確實需要煤炭時，他們會從哪裡採購。中阿帕拉契亞（Central Ap.）宣布了更多的停產。你們是否看到客戶為了取得新的煤炭而必須拉運距離有所變化？而且我假設隨著拉運距離增加，你們實際上不是按車皮數計費，而是按噸英里（ton mile）計費。所以你能否談談其中一些組合（mix）效應？

Well, we had already seen over the last several years, as Michael spoke to earlier, the Illinois Basin coal starting to grow. We had several utilities that had already switched over to the Illinois Basin coal. It's got lower cost mining characteristics, it's got higher Btu content.

嗯，過去幾年我們其實已經看到，如同 Michael 先前提到的，伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin）煤炭開始成長。我們有幾家公用事業已經改用伊利諾伊盆地煤。它的採礦成本特性較低，而且 Btu 含量更高。

And given the fact that the power plants now are all essentially scrubbed, the sulfur content is of little consequence there. So -- and in those rate structures, the longer length of haul out of the Illinois Basin versus some of the Central Ap locations is more favorable to us in our rate and pricing.

而且鑑於現在的發電廠基本上都已加裝洗滌設備（scrubbed），硫含量在那方面影響不大。因此——在那些費率結構下，從伊利諾伊盆地拉運的距離相較於部分中阿帕拉契亞地區更長，對我們的費率與定價而言更有利。

But it's not a huge mileage difference to Central Ap versus Illinois Basin, is it?

但中阿帕拉契亞和伊利諾伊盆地之間的里程差距其實不算很大，對吧？

No, it's not huge.

對，差距不大。

If you got up into the Pittsburgh 8 Seam coming into the Southwest -- or Southeast it's some big difference, not a big difference on the Illinois Basin, Jeff.

如果你談的是匹茲堡 8 號煤層（Pittsburgh 8 Seam）運往西南——或東南，那差距就會很大；但在伊利諾伊盆地這邊差距不大，Jeff。

Okay. But the point is some of these factors are beneficial on a net basis to your coal franchise despite what's going on with utilities. Hey, guys, congratulations. Thank you.

好的。但重點是，儘管公用事業那邊的情況如此，這些因素從淨額角度看對你們的煤炭業務仍是有利的。各位，恭喜。謝謝。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，Jeff。

Anthony Gallo, Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo 的 Anthony Gallo。

I just wanted to be clear on the incentive comp discussion. I thought I heard Fredrik say that the incentive comp benefit moderates as the year progresses. Is that correct? In other words, it was a big help in the first quarter and it's less of a help as the year progresses, is that correct?

我只是想釐清一下關於獎勵性薪酬（incentive comp）的討論。我以為我聽到 Fredrik 說，獎勵性薪酬帶來的效益會隨著年度推進而趨於緩和。是這樣嗎？換句話說，第一季幫助很大，但隨著年度推進幫助變小，是這樣嗎？

Yes, that's correct. If you look back at last year we were at a different [trajectory] at that point, so we had a significant amount of incentive comp in the first half. And then as the economy slowed down and we did some of the resource additions in the second half, we reversed some of the incentive comp last year in the second half and so the comparisons will be easier as you get to the second half of this year. So we expect it to moderate rate in the second quarter and then once you get to the second half probably flat year over year.

是的，沒錯。如果回頭看去年，當時我們處在不同的[軌跡]上，所以在上半年有相當多的獎勵性薪酬。然後隨著經濟放緩，以及我們在下半年做了一些資源增補，我們在去年下半年回轉（沖回）了一部分獎勵性薪酬，因此當你進入今年下半年時，比較基期會更容易。所以我們預期第二季的緩和幅度會下降，到了下半年大概會呈現年對年持平。

Okay. And then if I could just briefly -- you mentioned that you're moving crude on rail. There's no shale oil produced on your network, correct? This is a hand-off from shale oil production in the west, is that correct?

好的。另外我想簡短問一下——你提到你們用鐵路運送原油。你們的路網上沒有頁岩油生產，對吧？這是從西部頁岩油產區交接過來的運輸，對嗎？

So far that is a correct statement.

到目前為止，這個說法是正確的。

Okay. And then along those lines, the frac sand that you're moving, I know David and I have talked about this in the past, but can you put any numbers around that right now (inaudible) carloads?

好的。再沿著這個話題，你們運送的壓裂砂（frac sand），我知道 David 和我過去談過，但你能否就目前（聽不清）車皮數給一些數字？

No, I would rather not.

不，我寧可不提供。

Okay, fair enough. Thank you, gentlemen. Congratulations.

好的，可以理解。謝謝各位先生。恭喜。

Keith Schoonmaker, Morningstar.

Morningstar 的 Keith Schoonmaker。

Noting the $275 million of cash pension contribution in the period, do you expect no more such contributions for the next couple of years?

注意到本期有 2.75 億美元的現金退休金提撥，你們是否預期未來幾年都不會再有這類提撥？

That's correct. We took advantage of what we saw was very attractive rates in the marketplace and pre-funded what otherwise would have been funded in the next several years. So at this point we don't see any additional funding required.

沒錯。我們利用了我們認為市場上非常具吸引力的利率，先行預提（pre-funded）了原本在未來幾年才需要提撥的部分。因此就目前而言，我們看不到需要任何額外提撥。

Great, thanks. And another quick cost question. Can you maybe elaborate on a couple of the details in the decline in rail inflation that you mentioned? And more broadly, how closely do CSX estimates generally agree with the global insight values? Thanks.

很好，謝謝。再問一個快速的成本問題。你能否更詳細說明你提到的鐵路通膨（rail inflation）下降的幾個細節？更廣泛地說，CSX 的估計通常與 Global Insight 的數值吻合程度如何？謝謝。

On the inflation, on the couple of things there that we talked about. First of all, we have some new contracts with our union members and we have a little bit better cost share on the health and welfare side that is helping us. Then we also have lower contribution year over year into the unemployment fund, the Railroad unemployment fund, which is also helping.

關於通膨，我們談到的幾點。首先，我們與工會成員簽了幾份新合約，在健康與福利（health and welfare）方面的成本分攤稍微更有利，這對我們有幫助。另外，我們對失業基金——鐵路失業基金（Railroad unemployment fund）的提撥年對年也較低，這也有幫助。

In terms of how we compare to the global insight (inaudible) forecast, over time we should be pretty close. There could be some variations quarter by quarter, but over time it should be very, very close.

至於我們與 Global Insight（聽不清）預測相比，長期來看應該會非常接近。季度之間可能會有一些差異，但長期而言應該會非常、非常接近。

Great, thank you. Congrats on the quarter.

很好，謝謝。恭喜本季表現。

Thank you. And thanks, everybody, for joining us and we'll see you next quarter.

謝謝。也謝謝各位參與，我們下季再見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。各位可以掛線。