CSX Corporation (CSX) 2012 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation second quarter 2012 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2012 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。在本次會議期間，所有與會者將以只聽模式參與。

For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation. Sir, you may begin.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Lori, and good morning again, and welcome to CSX Corporation's second quarter 2012 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we'll be reviewing this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website, at CSX.com, under the Investor section. In addition, following the presentation, a webcast and pod cast replay will be available on the website. Here representing CSX this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Lori，再次向各位道早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2012 年第二季財報簡報。我們今天早上將檢視的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可在我們的網站 CSX.com 的「投資人」專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，網站上也將提供網路直播與播客的重播。今天早上代表 CSX 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。

Now before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on Slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements and risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements. In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With nearly 30 analysts covering CSX today, I would ask as a courtesy for everyone to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報以及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露事項。該揭露說明了前瞻性陳述，以及可能導致實際表現與這些陳述所預期結果出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。另外也提醒各位，在簡報結束時，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。目前約有近 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，為了禮貌起見，請各位將提問限制為一個主要問題與一個追問。

And with that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

那麼，接下來我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Well, thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

好的，謝謝你，David，各位早安。

Last night, CSX was pleased to report its tenth consecutive quarter of year over year earnings growth, with earnings per share of $0.49, up 7% from the same period last year. We continue to be encouraged by how the business performance, even in tough conditions; in this case, a very significant head wind in our utility coal business. In spite of that decline, volume and revenue essentially held flat, thanks in part to increases in export coal, intermodal and automotive. More importantly, our employees achieved at or near-record performance in key measures of safety and service, continued to adjust resource levels in response to the utility coal decline, and delivered significant productivity through both existing and new initiatives. As a result, we increased our operating income to $943 million and achieved a 60-basis point improvement in the operating ratio to 68.7%.

昨晚，CSX 很高興公布連續第十個季度的年對年獲利成長，每股盈餘為 0.49 美元，較去年同期成長 7%。即使在艱困條件下，我們仍對業務表現感到鼓舞；以本季而言，我們的公用事業煤炭業務面臨非常顯著的逆風。儘管該業務下滑，受惠於出口煤、聯運與汽車業務的成長，運量與營收基本上持平。更重要的是，我們的員工在安全與服務等關鍵指標上達到或接近紀錄水準，並持續因應公用事業煤炭下滑調整資源配置，同時透過既有與新推動的措施帶來顯著的生產力提升。因此，我們將營業利益提高至 9.43 億美元，營業比率改善 60 個基點至 68.7%。

Now we'll provide a more in-depth view of our results, starting with Clarence, who will discuss what we are seeing in the marketplace. Clarence?

接下來我們將更深入檢視本季結果，首先由 Clarence 說明我們在市場上觀察到的情況。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。

Total second quarter revenue of just over $3 billion was essentially flat compared to 2011, reflecting a more moderate economic environment. Starting at the left of the chart, fuel recovery increased $17 million in the quarter. Moving to the right, volume-related revenue had an unfavorable impact of $8 million in the quarter, as volume growth in export coal, intermodal and merchandise was more than offset by the significant decline in utility coal. Continuing to the right, the combined effect of rate and mix was $16 million unfavorable in the second quarter. The benefit of core pricing gains was more than offset by unfavorable mix associated with higher intermodal growth and declining coal volume.

第二季總營收略高於 30 億美元，與 2011 年相比基本持平，反映較為溫和的經濟環境。從圖表左側開始看，燃油回收在本季增加了 1,700 萬美元。往右看，與運量相關的營收在本季帶來 800 萬美元的不利影響，因出口煤、聯運與一般貨運的運量成長，被公用事業煤炭的大幅下滑所抵銷。再往右，運價與組合的綜合影響在第二季為 1,600 萬美元不利。核心定價提升的效益，被因聯運成長較高與煤炭運量下降所造成的不利組合所抵銷。

Now, let's take a look at each of the major markets in more detail, starting with merchandise. Overall merchandise revenue increased 6%, driven by 1% growth in volume and a 6% increase in revenue per unit, reflecting rate increases across all markets due to higher yields and fuel recovery. Automotive was the key driver in the industrial sector, growing 27%, as North American light vehicle production increased 25% in the quarter. The chemicals market grew 1% with frack sand and petroleum products being the primary drivers. In the construction sector, growth in building products was offset by a decline in aggregate shipments, due to the completion of several stimulus projects. In the agricultural sector, volume declined across all major commodities. Corn shipments to the Southeast for animal feed were lower, as a strong local wheat crop displaced Midwestern corn. Phosphate shipments declined, as buyers delayed purchases in expectation of moderating commodity prices. Finally, ethanol shipments softened as a result of lower gasoline demand.

現在我們更詳細地看看各主要市場，先從一般貨運（merchandise）開始。整體一般貨運營收成長 6%，主要由運量成長 1% 與每單位營收成長 6% 所帶動，反映因收益率提升與燃油回收而在各市場全面調漲運價。工業部門的主要動能來自汽車業務，成長 27%，因北美輕型車產量在本季增加 25%。化學品市場成長 1%，主要動能為壓裂砂與石油產品。在建築部門，建材的成長被骨材（aggregate）出貨下滑所抵銷，原因是數個刺激方案專案已完工。在農業部門，所有主要商品的運量皆下滑。運往東南部作為動物飼料的玉米出貨較少，因當地小麥豐收取代了中西部玉米。磷酸鹽出貨下滑，因買方預期商品價格趨於溫和而延後採購。最後，由於汽油需求下降，乙醇出貨轉弱。

Looking forward, the automotive market will continue to drive growth in the industrial sector. In addition, we continue to see growth opportunities in chemicals and metals, particularly in commodities that support the oil and gas industry. In the construction sector, aggregate shipments will remain challenged, while recovering housing starts will drive continued growth in building products. Finally, we expect the agricultural sector to be stable, with an increase in phosphate shipments being offset by a lower ethanol demand.

展望未來，汽車市場將持續帶動工業部門的成長。此外，我們仍看到化學品與金屬的成長機會，特別是支援油氣產業的相關商品。在建築部門，骨材出貨仍將面臨挑戰，而住宅開工回升將帶動建材持續成長。最後，我們預期農業部門將維持穩定，磷酸鹽出貨增加將被乙醇需求下降所抵銷。

Turning to the next slide, let's look at the intermodal markets. Intermodal revenue increased 10%, to $408 million, driven by an 8% increase in volume. Domestic volume was up 7%, setting a second quarter record. Growth was driven by highway to rail intermodal conversions, the continued success of our UMAX interlined container program and new markets and lanes generating growth with existing business partners. International volume grew 9%, driven by the successful onboarding of the new Maersk business.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來看看聯運市場。聯運營收成長 10% 至 4.08 億美元，主要由運量成長 8% 所帶動。國內運量成長 7%，創下第二季紀錄。成長動能來自公路轉鐵路的聯運轉換、我們 UMAX 聯運（interlined）貨櫃計畫的持續成功，以及與既有業務夥伴在新市場與新路線上的成長。國際運量成長 9%，主要受惠於成功導入新的 Maersk 業務。

Looking forward, strategic investments, such as the national gateway initiative and our Northwest Ohio terminal, position CSX to compete for an estimated 9 million truckload opportunity. These loads, with a length of haul exceeding 550 miles, that originate or terminate in our service territory. Our state-of-the-art terminal in Northwest Ohio increases capacity, expands our service offering by enabling connections between new and existing markets, and improves transit times. For example, the container transit time from the West Coast via Chicago to the New York market has improved by over a day. We expect healthy growth to continue long-term, as new terminals, such as Louisville, and capacity expansions, including Columbus, Charlotte and Cincinnati, drive further highway to rail conversions.

展望未來，諸如 National Gateway 計畫與我們位於俄亥俄州西北部的場站等策略性投資，使 CSX 得以競逐估計 900 萬車次（truckload）的機會。這些貨載的運距超過 550 英里，且起點或終點位於我們的服務範圍內。我們在俄亥俄州西北部的最先進場站可提升產能，透過連結新舊市場擴大服務內容，並改善運輸時間。例如，貨櫃自西岸經芝加哥運往紐約市場的運輸時間已縮短超過一天。隨著路易維爾等新場站啟用，以及哥倫布、夏洛特與辛辛那提等地的產能擴增推動更多公路轉鐵路的轉換，我們預期長期仍將維持健康成長。

Turning to the next slide, let's look at the coal markets. Coal revenue declined 14%, as strength in export coal partially offset significant weakness in utility coal volume. Domestic utility tons declined 37%, as natural gas prices remained low, leading to the continued displacement of coal at some utilities. In addition, electrical generation declined in the eastern United States. Partially offsetting this weakness, export coal volume grew 41% to 14.7 million tons in the quarter, as demand was strong for US thermal coal.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來看看煤炭市場。煤炭營收下滑 14%，出口煤的強勁表現僅部分抵銷公用事業煤炭運量的顯著疲弱。國內公用事業煤炭噸數下滑 37%，因天然氣價格維持低檔，導致部分公用事業持續以天然氣取代煤炭。此外，美國東部地區的發電量也有所下降。部分抵銷此疲弱的是，出口煤運量在本季成長 41% 至 1,470 萬噸，因市場對美國動力煤（thermal coal）需求強勁。

Looking ahead, even though the market for export coal is volatile, we clearly expect to exceed the tons shipped in 2011, as the demand for US coal will remain strong in the second half, although not at the level we saw in the first half. At the same time, domestic utility volumes are expected to face continued challenges, due to low natural gas prices, above-normal inventory levels, and environmental regulations. Headwinds should begin to moderate somewhat through the balance of this year.

展望未來，儘管出口煤市場波動，我們明確預期出貨噸數將超越 2011 年，因美國煤炭在下半年需求仍將強勁，雖然不會達到上半年所見的水準。同時，國內公用事業運量預期仍將面臨持續挑戰，原因包括天然氣價格偏低、庫存水準高於常態，以及環境法規。逆風在今年剩餘期間應會開始略為緩和。

Let's turn to the outlook for the third quarter. Looking forward to the third quarter, we recognize the economic environment has moderated, but remain optimistic, with a stable or favorable outlook in markets that represent nearly 80% of our total volume. Intermodal growth will lead the way, as our strategic network investments and strong service delivery will continue to support highway to rail conversions. We expect export coal shipments will grow, although at a more moderate pace, as increased thermal coal volume is expected to more than offset softness in metallurgical coal demand. In the industrial sector, strong North American light vehicle production will drive increased automobile and light truck shipments. The chemicals market will also grow as our petro chemical customers benefit from low natural gas prices and we capture the opportunities created by the growing domestic oil and gas industry. The overall outlook for the agricultural sector is neutral, with dry conditions reducing an anticipated strong Midwest harvest and ethanol shipments impacted by lower demands and higher inventories. In the construction sector, we expect a continued recovery in demand for building materials, including lumber and panel products, while aggregate and waste shipments will remain challenged. And finally, utility and industrial coal shipments will remain well below the prior year levels.

讓我們把焦點轉向第三季的展望。展望第三季，我們認知到經濟環境已趨於溫和，但仍保持樂觀；在占我們總運量近80%的市場中，我們的展望為穩定或有利。聯運成長將領先帶動，因為我們的策略性網路投資與強勁的服務交付，將持續支持由公路轉向鐵路的運輸轉換。我們預期出口煤炭出貨量將成長，但增速較為溫和；因為預期動力煤運量增加，將足以抵消冶金煤需求走弱的影響。在工業領域，北美輕型車產量強勁將帶動汽車與輕型卡車出貨量增加。化學品市場也將成長，因為我們的石化客戶受惠於低天然氣價格，而我們也將把握國內油氣產業成長所帶來的機會。農業領域的整體展望為中性；乾旱狀況降低了原先預期強勁的中西部收成，而乙醇出貨量則受到需求下降與庫存較高的影響。在建築領域，我們預期建材需求將持續復甦，包括木材與板材產品；但骨材與廢棄物出貨仍將面臨挑戰。最後，公用事業與工業用煤出貨量仍將遠低於去年同期水準。

Let me wrap up on the next slide. Looking at the state of the economy, the Purchasing Manager's Index registered a reading of 49.7 in June, a significant decline from May's 53.5 reading. Please recall that a reading above 50 indicates continued expansion. At the same time, the Customer Inventories Index registered a reading of 48.5, up from 43.5 in May, indicating inventories are growing, but still below normal levels. And while the broader economic backdrop still remains favorable, the broader indicators we follow are mixed. Although these indicators generally still point to continued growth, it is expected to be at a more modest pace. As such, our overall outlook for the third quarter is still positive, as we anticipate stable to favorable conditions in the CSX markets that account for nearly 80% of our volume. While utility coal volume will continue to be challenged by low gas prices and high utility stock piles, we expect these headwinds to moderate somewhat through the balance of the year. Finally, we are delivering high service levels and environmentally friendly solutions, which create compelling values for our customers and drives our long-term growth.

讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。從經濟狀況來看，採購經理人指數（PMI）在6月錄得49.7，較5月的53.5大幅下滑。請記得，指數高於50代表持續擴張。同時，客戶庫存指數錄得48.5，較5月的43.5上升，顯示庫存正在增加，但仍低於正常水準。儘管整體經濟背景仍然有利，我們追蹤的整體指標呈現分歧。雖然這些指標整體仍指向持續成長，但預期成長步伐將更為溫和。因此，我們對第三季的整體展望仍為正向，因為我們預期在占我們運量近80%的CSX市場中，狀況將維持穩定至有利。雖然公用事業用煤運量仍將受到低天然氣價格與公用事業高庫存的挑戰，我們預期這些逆風在今年剩餘期間將有所緩和。最後，我們正提供高水準服務與環境友善的解決方案，為客戶創造具吸引力的價值，並推動我們的長期成長。

Thank you, and let me turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

謝謝，接下來我把簡報交給Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運成果。

Thank you, Clarence, and good morning to everyone, our employees that are listening, our customers, and, of course, our investors and share owners. I'm actually very excited to talk about our performance this quarter.

謝謝你，Clarence，各位早安——正在收聽的同仁、我們的客戶，當然還有我們的投資人與股東。我其實非常興奮能談談我們本季的表現。

As you know, at CSX, operational success has been built on our employees' commitment to provide customer service at the highest levels and to drive greater efficiency, while at the same time maintaining a constant focus on safety. The second quarter results is a clear reflection of that commitment, as we again achieved record or near-record performance in both safety and service. Furthermore, CSX's more fluid network is driving greater operational efficiencies and further margin expansion. From a strategic perspective, we are constantly refining procedures and resource levels to create faster and more efficient ways to provide service excellence. This requires us to change and adapt to customer needs more quickly, especially in the more dynamic times that we face today. This also means allocating resources properly across the network to stay nimble and be ready to support new business opportunities. We believe that this will enable us to provide a better business product to our customers and stronger returns to our share owners in the near and the long-term.

如各位所知，在CSX，營運上的成功建立在員工致力於提供最高水準的客戶服務、推動更高效率，同時始終專注於安全。第二季的成果清楚反映了這份承諾，因為我們在安全與服務兩方面再次達成創紀錄或接近紀錄的表現。此外，CSX更為順暢的網路正在帶動更高的營運效率，並進一步擴大利潤率。從策略角度來看，我們持續精進流程與資源配置水準，以更快速、更有效率的方式提供卓越服務。這要求我們更快因應並調整以符合客戶需求，尤其是在當今更具動態的時期。這也意味著要在整個網路中妥善配置資源，以保持靈活，並隨時準備支持新的業務機會。我們相信，這將使我們能為客戶提供更好的商業產品，並在短期與長期為股東帶來更強勁的報酬。

So with that, let's review the results for the quarter, starting with safety. As you know, safety is critically important in our industry. It's ingrained in CSX's culture, which not only has made CSX a leader in one of the nation's safest industries, but it also translates into the high quality service we provide customers. At the chart, look at the personal injury rate on the left, you can see that CSX employees produced an all-time record of 0.66, representing a 27% improvement year over year. This is a direct result of the Company's strong safety culture. The chart on the right shows the FRA train accident rate, which improved 21% to 1.81. Much like the personal injury rate, this improvement is in part a result of our employees' efforts, but also reflects CSX's continued development and implementation of early detection technologies that enable us to stay ahead of potential train accidents.

那麼，讓我們回顧本季成果，先從安全開始。如各位所知，安全在我們的產業中至關重要。安全已深植於CSX的文化之中，這不僅使CSX成為全國最安全產業之一的領導者，也轉化為我們提供給客戶的高品質服務。看左側圖表的個人傷害率，您可以看到CSX員工創下歷史新低的0.66，年對年改善27%。這是公司強大安全文化的直接成果。右側圖表顯示FRA列車事故率，改善21%至1.81。與個人傷害率相同，這項改善部分來自員工的努力，同時也反映CSX持續開發並導入早期偵測技術，使我們能提前防範潛在的列車事故。

Now if we turn on the next slide, let's review our on-time performance. Here, you can see on-time originations on the left and arrivals on the right. In addition, we have again overlaid 6- and 12-month trend lines. As a reminder, the on-time results for the quarter, what we fundamentally produce for our customers, are represented by the bars and the technicals are represented by the 6-month moving average in black and the 12-month moving average in red. When quarterly results are below the trend lines, it's an early indication that we need to take corrective action in order to avoid a longer-term negative trend. Likewise, when the results are above the trend line, it's a signal that CSX's strong momentum in its service performance. In the second quarter, we again achieved an all-time high of 89% in on-time originations and we are close to record highs in on-time arrivals, at 78%. Our commitment to service continues to strengthen and is supported by the positive feedback we are receiving directly from our customers and indirectly through independent market research efforts conducted quarterly.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我們回顧準點表現。在這裡，左側是準點發車，右側是準點到達。此外，我們再次疊加了6個月與12個月的趨勢線。提醒一下，本季的準點結果——也就是我們根本上為客戶所交付的成果——以長條呈現；而技術性指標則以黑色的6個月移動平均與紅色的12個月移動平均呈現。當季度結果低於趨勢線時，這是我們需要採取矯正行動的早期訊號，以避免形成較長期的負面趨勢。同樣地，當結果高於趨勢線時，則顯示CSX在服務表現上具有強勁動能。第二季，我們準點發車再次達到歷史新高的89%，而準點到達也接近歷史高點，為78%。我們對服務的承諾持續強化，並受到我們直接從客戶獲得的正面回饋，以及透過每季進行的獨立市場研究所間接反映的支持。

Turning to system performance on the next side, terminal dwell is a strong indicator of how well we are utilizing our assets. Looking at the chart on the left, you see dwell improved 11%, to 23.2 hours, and the trend lines again reflect strong momentum. The chart on the right, velocity, again, showed strong improvement, up 13%, to 22.4 miles per hour. A more fluid network allows us to utilize assets more effectively and to be nimble in providing consistent levels of service to customers, even while the environment around us is changing.

接著看下一張投影片的系統表現，終端停留時間（terminal dwell）是衡量我們資產運用效率的重要指標。看左側圖表，停留時間改善11%，降至23.2小時，而趨勢線再次反映出強勁動能。右側圖表的速度（velocity）同樣顯著改善，上升13%至每小時22.4英里。更為順暢的網路使我們能更有效地運用資產，並在周遭環境變化之際，仍能靈活地為客戶提供一致水準的服務。

Let's discuss velocity by market in more detail on the next chart. Velocity was up across all three networks on a year over year basis, as were both the 6- and 12-month trend lines. In coal, despite the continued domestic headwinds, we are seeing improvements in service and productivity. Train length again increased, with 107 cars averaged for the quarter. Through improved productivity and network fluidity, CSX was also able to deliver a record 14.7 million tons of coal to the export market.

讓我們在下一張圖表更詳細地按市場討論速度表現。在年對年基礎上，三個網路的速度皆上升，6個月與12個月趨勢線亦同樣上揚。在煤炭方面，儘管國內逆風仍在，我們仍看到服務與生產力的改善。列車長度再次增加，本季平均為107節車廂。透過提升生產力與網路順暢度，CSX也得以向出口市場交付創紀錄的1,470萬噸煤炭。

Turning to intermodal, velocity remained at high levels, while supporting 8% volume growth. The higher velocity in the intermodal network gives us the ability to reach markets more quickly, better utilize network capacity, and be more responsive to the business demands of our growing intermodal business. A key indicator of service quality is container and trailer availability, which improved to the mid-80%s for the quarter, and represents the percentage of loaded boxes ready for on-time pickup. Finally, the merchandise network continues to perform well, with terminal dwell down 11% and velocity up 12%. We are making more of the deliveries to customers on time and remain in a great position to support growth in these markets.

談到聯運方面，速度仍維持在高水準，同時支撐了8%的運量成長。聯運網路中較高的速度，使我們能更快速地觸及市場、更有效利用網路產能，並對我們成長中的聯運業務之商業需求更具回應能力。服務品質的一項關鍵指標是貨櫃與拖車可用性，本季改善至80%中段，代表已裝載箱體可準時提貨的比例。最後，商品貨運網路持續表現良好，場站停留時間下降11%，速度提升12%。我們能更準時地向客戶交付，並且仍處於支持這些市場成長的極佳位置。

Now, let's look at productivity and resource alignment on the next slide. We entered 2012 with high expectations for customer service and allocated the appropriate amount of resources to drive that result. Moving through the year, the challenge has been to maintain this high level of service, while improving productivity, and be able to adjust resources to match the lower volume of utility coal. Let's talk on the productivity front. The goal at the beginning of 2012 was to deliver savings in excess of $130 million for the year. The operations team has exceeded expectations and we are now targeting full-year productivity levels in excess of $180 million. Train crews are operating more efficiently, with less overtime and fewer re-crews. At the same time, our strong service product translates directly into faster cycle times for our assets. In addition, the implementation of new technology and other initiatives have improved fuel efficiency.

接下來一張投影片，我們來看生產力與資源配置的對齊。我們在2012年以對客戶服務的高度期待開局，並配置了適當的資源以推動該成果。隨著年度推進，挑戰在於在提升生產力的同時維持這樣的高服務水準，並能調整資源以匹配公用事業煤炭較低的運量。先談生產力面。2012年初的目標是全年節省超過1.30億美元。營運團隊超出預期，我們目前的目標是全年生產力水準超過1.80億美元。列車乘務組運作更有效率，加班更少、臨時重組乘務（re-crews）也更少。同時，我們強勁的服務產品可直接轉化為資產更快的週轉時間。此外，新技術的導入與其他措施也提升了燃油效率。

On the resource front, as utility coal weakened, we continued to take aggressive steps to adjust T&E resources in those affected regions. In addition, after a smooth start to the spring peak shipping season, we continue to store locomotives. These targeted resource adjustments have reduced costs while maintaining service. Combined, the productivity benefits we are producing and the savings we are realizing from the resource adjustments helped drive the 60-basis point improvement in the Company's second quarter operating ratio.

在資源面，隨著公用事業煤炭走弱，我們持續採取積極措施，在受影響地區調整運輸與工程（T&E）資源。此外，在春季運輸旺季順利開局後，我們持續封存機車。這些有針對性的資源調整在維持服務的同時降低了成本。綜合而言，我們所產生的生產力效益與資源調整所實現的節省，推動公司第二季營業比率改善60個基點。

On the next slide, let's talk more specifically about our resource adjustments. The chart on the left represents the total T&E work force, with the blue portion of the bars representing full-time employees and the gold portion representing those employees on furlough retention boards. While utilizing furlough retention boards result in a higher head count than with traditional furloughs, CSX still realizes lower labor costs and retains the flexibility with its manpower to meet attrition and service demands. We have this flexibility because it's easier and quicker to bring an employee off the retention board than the longer process of bringing an employee back from traditional furlough. On the chart on the right, you can also see active locomotives peak during the first quarter of this year. Since then, we've been storing excess power. Again, the decision to store locomotives is aimed at saving costs, but not, not at the price of service or flexibility.

在下一張投影片，我們更具體談談資源調整。左側圖表代表T&E總人力，長條中的藍色部分代表全職員工，金色部分代表列入停薪留任名單（furlough retention boards）的員工。雖然使用停薪留任名單會使人頭數高於傳統停薪留職（traditional furloughs），CSX仍能降低勞動成本，並保有人力彈性以因應自然流失與服務需求。我們之所以具備此彈性，是因為將員工從留任名單召回，比起從傳統停薪留職召回員工的較長流程更容易也更快速。在右側圖表中，你也可以看到今年第一季在役機車數量達到高峰。自那之後，我們一直在封存多餘的動力。再次強調，封存機車的決策旨在節省成本，但不是、不是以犧牲服務或彈性為代價。

Let me wrap up on the last slide. As I said at the start, the story of excellence at CSX has been developed over many years and the commitment from our employees is as strong as ever, which is clearly indicated in our second quarter performance. Our safety results continue to reflect our position as an industry leader, with record results achieved from employee commitment and utilization of new technology. Service remains at high levels and we will not stop in our pursuit of delivering value to customers. As Clarence mentioned, a strong service product drives value for customers, which in turn drives inflation-plus pricing and volume growth and long-term value for you, our owners. While we continue to produce a superior service product for customers, we will also generate greater operational efficiencies, and we fully expect to realize productivity savings that will exceed $180 million this year. So in summary, our employees are engaged and remain committed in driving safety, service and productivity excellence.

讓我在最後一張投影片做個總結。如同我在開頭所說，CSX的卓越故事是多年累積而成，而員工的承諾一如既往地強烈，這在我們第二季的表現中清楚可見。我們的安全成果持續反映我們作為產業領導者的地位，員工的投入與新技術的運用帶來了創紀錄的成果。服務仍維持在高水準，我們不會停止追求為客戶創造價值。正如Clarence提到的，強勁的服務產品為客戶帶來價值，進而推動高於通膨的定價與運量成長，並為各位—我們的股東—帶來長期價值。在持續為客戶提供卓越服務產品的同時，我們也將創造更高的營運效率，並完全預期今年可實現超過1.80億美元的生產力節省。總結而言，我們的員工積極投入，並持續致力於推動安全、服務與生產力的卓越表現。

So with that, let me turn the presentation over to Fredrik to review the financials.

那麼，接下來我把簡報交給Fredrik來回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。

In the second quarter, CSX overcame significant challenges in the utility coal market to once again produce year over year earnings growth. Looking at the top of this slide, revenue was essentially flat. At the same time, expenses were down 1%, reflecting the productivity gains we have made, as well as the resource adjustments taken to adapt to changing conditions in coal while maintaining high levels of customer service. As a result, second quarter operating income was $943 million, up 2% versus the prior year.

在第二季，CSX克服了公用事業煤炭市場的重大挑戰，再次實現年對年獲利成長。從本頁上方來看，營收基本持平。同時，費用下降1%，反映我們取得的生產力提升，以及為因應煤炭市場變化、在維持高水準客戶服務的同時所採取的資源調整。因此，第二季營業利益為9.43億美元，較去年同期成長2%。

Looking below the line, higher interest expense was offset by the change in other income. Income taxes were $297 million in the quarter, for an effective tax rate of 36.7%. This reflects the impact of the state legislative change and the resolution of other tax matters in the quarter. You may recall, CSX recorded several unrelated favorable state legislative changes in last year's second quarter, as well. Going forward, we continue to expect a normalized tax rate of about 38%. Finally, EPS was $0.49, an improvement of 7%, reflecting the gain in net earnings and the impact of our share repurchase program.

在營業利益以下的項目中，較高的利息費用被其他收入的變動所抵銷。本季所得稅為2.97億美元，有效稅率為36.7%。這反映了州層級立法變更的影響，以及本季其他稅務事項的結案。你可能還記得，CSX在去年第二季也記錄了數項彼此無關、對公司有利的州立法變更。展望未來，我們仍預期常態化稅率約為38%。最後，每股盈餘（EPS）為0.49美元，提升7%，反映淨利增加以及我們股票回購計畫的影響。

Turning to the next slide, let's begin to discuss expenses in more detail. As you can see on this slide, total expense was down 1%, and flat, excluding fuel. While we made resource investments in the back half of last year, the high level of service that we are currently delivering for our customers is improving asset utilization and decreasing overtime cost. We are also seeing the positive impact of improved train accident performance, through lower equipment repair and materials cost.

接著看下一張投影片，我們開始更詳細地討論費用。如你在本頁所見，總費用下降1%；若排除燃料，則持平。雖然我們在去年下半年進行了資源投資，但目前為客戶提供的高水準服務正在提升資產利用率並降低加班成本。我們也看到列車事故表現改善帶來的正面影響，體現在設備維修與材料成本降低。

I'll talk about the top three expense lines in more detail in the next few slides, but let me briefly speak to the last two items on the chart. Depreciation was up 7%, to $263 million, due to the increase in the net asset base. This is in line with our previous estimates and should continue to increase a few million dollars sequentially each quarter. Equipment rents were also up 7%, to $102 million, primarily driven by strong volume increases in automotive and intermodal that was only partially offset by improved cycle times.

接下來幾張投影片我會更詳細說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談談圖表中的最後兩項。折舊增加7%，至2.63億美元，原因是淨資產基礎增加。這與我們先前的估計一致，且預期未來每季將逐季增加數百萬美元。設備租金也增加7%，至1.02億美元，主要由汽車與聯運運量強勁成長所帶動，僅部分被週轉時間改善所抵銷。

Turn to Slide 24. Labor and fringe expense was down 3% versus last year, or $20 million. Looking at the chart on the left, headcount was up 4% versus last year, to 32,422 employees, and flat sequentially, which is in line with what we previously shared with you. Reflecting the additions we have made to the workforce and looking at the table on the right, hiring and training costs were up $8 million in the quarter. Moving down the table, labor inflation was flat, while core wage inflation was between 2.5% to 3%. This is being offset by savings in health and welfare programs, as well as the impact of lower railroad unemployment tax rate. Next, incentive compensation was $18 million favorable in the quarter, which is in line with expectation we outlined on the last quarter's call. Rounding out the table, volume and other costs were $10 million favorable, reflecting reductions related to fewer crew starts, as well as savings in overtime and relief crews.

請翻到第24頁。勞工與附加福利費用較去年下降3%，或2,000萬美元。從左側圖表來看，員工人數較去年增加4%，至32,422人，且與前一季持平，符合我們先前與各位分享的情況。反映我們對人力的增補，並從右側表格來看，本季招募與訓練成本增加800萬美元。往下看，勞動通膨持平，而核心薪資通膨介於2.5%至3%。這部分被健康與福利計畫的節省，以及較低的鐵路失業稅率影響所抵銷。接著，本季獎勵性薪酬較有利1,800萬美元，符合我們在上季電話會議中所概述的預期。最後，運量及其他成本較有利1,000萬美元，反映因開車班次（crew starts）較少而相關成本下降，以及加班與支援乘務（relief crews）方面的節省。

Looking forward, total headcount should continue to be relatively constant in 2012, although as we have demonstrated once again this year, we will adjust it quarterly, as business conditions warrant. In addition, we expect labor inflation will remain modest, though will likely increase to about $10 million per quarter in the back half of the year, reflecting the July 1 general wage increases for our union employees. Finally, incentive compensation should be flat to slightly unfavorable in the back half of the year.

展望未來，2012 年總員工人數應會持續維持相對穩定；不過，正如我們今年再次證明的，我們將視業務狀況需要按季調整。此外，我們預期勞動力通膨仍將溫和，但在下半年可能會增加至每季約 1,000 萬美元，反映我們工會員工 7 月 1 日的一般加薪。最後，激勵性薪酬在下半年應持平至略為不利。

Turning to Slide 25, MS&O expense decreased 1%, or $7 million versus last year. Looking at the table to the right, inflation was $12 million. Moving down the table, volume-related expenses increased $7 million in the quarter, reflecting primarily terminal-related costs associated with our growing intermodal, export coal, and automotive businesses. Next, consistent with last quarter, CSX recognized a $20 million deferred gain related to the Company's sale of property last year to the state of Florida, and we will continue to recognize a similar gain each quarter throughout the year. As a reminder, CSX recognized a $14 million gain in the fourth quarter of 2011, so the year over year favorable comparisons will mainly continue through the third quarter of this year. Finally, all other costs decreased $6 million this quarter, which in part reflects improved asset utilization and the impact of lower equipment repair cost.

轉到第 25 張投影片，MS&O 費用較去年下降 1%，或 700 萬美元。看右側表格，通膨為 1,200 萬美元。再往下看，本季與運量相關的費用增加 700 萬美元，主要反映與我們成長中的聯運、出口煤與汽車業務相關的場站成本。接著，與上季一致，CSX 認列了 2,000 萬美元的遞延收益，與公司去年將不動產出售給佛羅里達州政府相關；我們將在全年每一季持續認列類似收益。提醒一下，CSX 在 2011 年第四季認列了 1,400 萬美元收益，因此年對年有利比較主要將延續至今年第三季。最後，本季其他所有成本下降 600 萬美元，部分反映資產利用率改善以及設備維修成本下降的影響。

Moving to the next slide, let's discuss the impact of fuel. Total fuel costs decreased 5%, or $21 million, versus last year. Looking at the table to the right, lower volume reduced fuel expense by $10 million, with gross ton miles down 2.6%. Next, as shown on the chart on the left, CSX's average cost per gallon for locomotive fuel fell $3.14 -- fell to $3.14, down 2% versus last year. This decrease in fuel price accounted for another $8 million of overall reduction in fuel expense, as seen in the table on the right. And rounding out the table, fuel efficiency was favorable by $2 million and non-locomotive fuel expense was $1 million lower.

接著到下一張投影片，我們來討論燃料的影響。總燃料成本較去年下降 5%，或 2,100 萬美元。看右側表格，較低的運量使燃料費用減少 1,000 萬美元，總噸英里（gross ton miles）下降 2.6%。接著，如左側圖表所示，CSX 機車燃料每加侖平均成本降至 3.14 美元——降至 3.14 美元，較去年下降 2%。如右側表格所示，燃料價格下降使燃料費用總體再減少 800 萬美元。最後，燃油效率帶來 200 萬美元的有利影響，非機車燃料費用則再降低 100 萬美元。

Now, let me turn your attention to CSX's credit profile on the next slide. CSX has remained committed to an improving credit profile, which is reflected by the favorable long-term trends in key measures used by S&P and Moody's, that you can see on these charts. This improving credit profile supports the Company's commitment to balanced approach for deploying capital to shareholders, through capital investment, dividends, and share repurchases. For 2012, CSX remains on target to invest $2.25 billion. As we updated you on the first earnings call -- first quarter earnings call, longer term, our capital investment target is 16% to 17% of revenue, plus the additional investment required for PTC. In regard to dividends, the Company continues to pay out 30% to 35% of trailing 12-months earnings, as reflected in the latest 17% increase that became effective with the second quarter payment. Finally, we expect to fund share repurchases primarily through free cash flow. There are $434 million of repurchase remaining under the current program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year.

現在，請把注意力轉到下一張投影片中 CSX 的信用概況。CSX 一直致力於改善信用概況，這可從你在圖表中看到的、S&P 與穆迪所使用的關鍵衡量指標之長期有利趨勢反映出來。這項信用概況的改善，支持公司以均衡方式向股東配置資本的承諾，包括資本投資、股利與庫藏股回購。就 2012 年而言，CSX 仍按計畫投資 22.5 億美元。如我們在第一季財報電話會議中向各位更新的，長期而言，我們的資本投資目標為營收的 16% 至 17%，另加上 PTC 所需的額外投資。在股利方面，公司持續將過去 12 個月盈餘的 30% 至 35% 作為配發比率；最新一次 17% 的調升已自第二季股利發放起生效。最後，我們預期主要以自由現金流支應股票回購。目前計畫下尚餘 4.34 億美元的回購額度，我們預期在今年底前完成。

Now, let me wrap up on the next slide. Recapping the second quarter, CSX delivered earnings growth despite the significant headwind from utility coal. Gains in intermodal, automotive and export coal led the way, with safety and service at or near record levels, all of which helped drive margin expansion. On a full-year basis, CSX still expects to deliver earnings growth and margin expansion, despite the mixed economic signals and continued utility coal headwinds. In doing so, we'll remain focused on things we can control the most, maintaining an excellent service product, inflation-plus pricing, and productivity that we now expect to exceed $180 million.

現在，讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。回顧第二季，儘管公用事業用煤帶來顯著逆風，CSX 仍實現盈餘成長。聯運、汽車與出口煤的成長領先，安全與服務水準達到或接近歷史新高，這些都推動了利潤率擴張。以全年來看，儘管經濟訊號好壞參半且公用事業用煤逆風持續，CSX 仍預期可實現盈餘成長與利潤率擴張。為此，我們將持續聚焦於我們最能掌控的事項：維持卓越的服務產品、通膨以上的定價，以及我們目前預期將超過 1.8 億美元的生產力提升。

Looking forward, while more challenging, CSX continues to have line of sight in achieving a 65% operating ratio by 2015, the foundation of which is an outstanding service product that drives volume growth, above inflation pricing, and productivity gains. At the same time, we expect utility coal will stabilize later this year or early 2013, and for export coal to remain in the range of at least 40 million tons annually. Finally, as we continue delivering outstanding financial results for investors, CSX remains committed to a balanced approach in deploying cash, which includes capital investments that drive long-term value, as well as dividends and share repurchases that provide immediate return for investors.

展望未來，雖然挑戰更大，CSX 仍清楚可見在 2015 年達成 65% 營運比率的路徑；其基礎是卓越的服務產品，帶動運量成長、通膨以上的定價，以及生產力提升。同時，我們預期公用事業用煤將在今年稍晚或 2013 年初趨於穩定，而出口煤則可維持每年至少 4,000 萬噸的區間。最後，在我們持續為投資人交出優異財務成果的同時，CSX 仍致力於以均衡方式運用現金，包括推動長期價值的資本投資，以及為投資人提供即時回報的股利與股票回購。

With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把簡報交回給 Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Fredrik.

謝謝你，Fredrik。

We were encouraged by the team's ability to deliver another strong quarter, in spite of the substantial headwind, and we believe the things we did to get that result position us well for the future. CSX serves a broad array of transportation markets. That has significant advantages for our business, as we saw again this quarter, even though conditions in all those markets may not always align perfectly in our favor. Our focus is on creating the best competitive advantage for our customers, regardless of the environment, as we've done consistently through the ebbs and flows of the economy over the past several years. When we do that, we're able to succeed across an array of conditions, while consistently building our ability to deliver value when market conditions and the economy are stronger.

儘管面臨相當大的逆風，我們仍對團隊再度交出強勁一季的能力感到鼓舞；我們相信，為達成這個結果所做的事情，讓我們在未來具備良好定位。CSX 服務於廣泛的運輸市場。這為我們的業務帶來顯著優勢，正如本季我們再次看到的，即使這些市場的狀況未必總是完全朝對我們有利的方向一致。我們的重點是在任何環境下都為客戶創造最佳競爭優勢，正如過去幾年我們在景氣起伏中一貫所做的。當我們做到這一點時，我們就能在各種情境下取得成功，同時持續建立在市場與經濟更強勁時交付價值的能力。

For our team, delivering value translates into a relentless focus on the things we control the most, safety, service, and productivity and the ability to pivot quickly and shift resources when market conditions change. As we said earlier, despite the headwinds in utility coal and some mixed signals we've seen in the economy recently, our overall outlook remains positive for the remainder of the year. We are working closely with our customers to support them with strong service, while anticipating their needs for 2013 and beyond. We thank our shareholders for their investment in CSX, and now we look forward to answering your questions at this time.

對我們的團隊而言，交付價值意味著對我們最能掌控的事項保持不懈聚焦：安全、服務與生產力，以及在市場狀況改變時能快速轉向並調整資源的能力。如先前所述，儘管公用事業用煤存在逆風，且近期我們在經濟上看到一些好壞參半的訊號，我們對今年剩餘期間的整體展望仍維持正向。我們正與客戶密切合作，以強勁的服務支援他們，同時預先掌握他們對 2013 年及之後的需求。我們感謝股東對 CSX 的投資，現在我們期待在此時回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bill Greene with Morgan Stanley.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Bill Greene。

Good morning, Bill.

早安，Bill。

Good morning. You've talked about this line of sight to 65. And when we think about the drivers there, between volume, price and productivity, can you give us some sense for what's most important there? I think most of us would say volume, probably not likely to grow all that much, given the uncertainty. Although 2015's still far away, so who knows? But it really feels like you're really knocking the cover off the ball on productivity. So how do you think about those three? Is it sort of a third, a third, a third, or is one more important than the other?

早安。你們談到達成 65% 的清晰路徑。當我們思考其中的驅動因素——運量、價格與生產力——你能否讓我們了解哪一項最重要？我想我們多數人會說運量，考量不確定性，可能不太可能大幅成長。不過 2015 年仍很遠，所以誰知道呢？但感覺你們在生產力方面真的表現非常出色。那你們如何看待這三者？是各占三分之一、三分之一、三分之一，還是其中一項比其他更重要？

I don't think we have -- we know that in the last couple years, obviously price has been the key driver. And I think as we move forward, I think you're going to see more balance between the three levers. So if you look at price and productivity, which are the two things we can control the most, what we have said is inflation-plus pricing is critical, and continued productivity, the minimum of $130 million is also critical. If you look at volume, we talked in my prepared remarks about export coal continued to be up in that 40 million-ton range, at least, and then utility coal is stabilizing. When you look at that overall industrial output, we've seen a couple years here of 3% to 4%, and I think we would like to see that continuing over this time period. So I think you'll see more balance between the three levers as we move forward versus what you've seen over the last seven or eight years.

我不認為我們有——我們知道在過去幾年裡，顯然價格一直是關鍵驅動因素。而我認為，隨著我們往前看，你會看到這三個槓桿之間會更為均衡。所以如果你看價格與生產力，這是我們最能掌控的兩件事，我們所說的是，「通膨以上」的定價至關重要，而持續提升生產力（至少1.30億美元）同樣至關重要。如果你看運量，我們在事先準備的發言中提到，出口煤仍將維持在至少4,000萬噸的區間，而公用事業用煤則正在趨於穩定。當你看整體工業產出時，我們在這裡已經看到連續幾年約3%到4%的成長，我想我們希望在這段期間能持續如此。因此我認為，隨著我們往前走，你會看到三個槓桿之間更為均衡，而不是像過去七、八年你所看到的那樣。

Okay. Just two quick detail questions. Clarence, can you give us same-store sales pricing? And on CapEx, when do you revisit CapEx, given the coal decline? Thank you.

好的。兩個很快的細節問題。Clarence，你能提供同店銷售的定價（價格）嗎？另外在資本支出（CapEx）方面，考量到煤炭下滑，你們何時會重新檢視CapEx？謝謝。

Let me answer the first one on CapEx. We're staying at the same place as we've been before, with $2.25 million for CapEx for this year. And we've provided the long-term guidance of 16% to 17%. So if utility coal changes, that will be reflected in our spending going forward.

我先回答第一個關於CapEx的問題。我們今年的CapEx維持在與先前相同的水準，為2.25百萬美元。而我們也提供了長期指引為16%到17%。因此如果公用事業用煤有所變化，未來我們的支出也會反映這些變化。

Bill, our overall core pricing gains in the second quarter were in the range of 3% to 4%, and that's excluding the decline, obviously, that we had in export coal. And our estimate for full-year inflation, to give you a comparison there, is 2.4%.

Bill，我們第二季整體核心定價的增幅約在3%到4%之間，這不包含我們在出口煤上出現的下滑（顯然）。而我們對全年通膨的估計（提供你作比較）是2.4%。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，Bill。

Thank you. Our next question is from Kevin Crissey with UBS.

謝謝。下一個問題來自UBS的Kevin Crissey。

Good morning, Kevin.

早安，Kevin。

Good morning. Thanks for the time. Can you talk about the lag benefit that you saw in Q2 from fuel surcharges, and maybe as we look forward, what your thoughts are?

早安。謝謝撥冗。你能談談第二季你們從燃油附加費看到的滯後效益（lag benefit）嗎？以及往前看，你們的想法是什麼？

We saw about $17 million in this quarter of lag benefit. And obviously, looking at the third quarter, depends on where fuel ultimately ends up. But right now, there should be some sort of favorability in the third quarter as well, based on what we're seeing the future curve doing.

我們本季看到約1,700萬美元的滯後效益。而顯然，展望第三季，取決於燃油最終走勢。但就目前而言，基於我們看到的期貨曲線走勢，第三季也應該會有某種程度的有利影響。

Can you just remind me, the 65 OR target, does that exclude the SunRail?

你能提醒我一下，65的OR目標是否不包含SunRail？

The 65 target?

65的目標？

Yes, the OR target?

是的，OR目標？

Yes, it does, because we won't have a gain at that point from that transaction.

是的，不包含，因為在那個時間點我們不會因那筆交易而有收益。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Our next question is from Ken Hoexter with Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美林（Merrill Lynch）的Ken Hoexter。

Good morning, Ken.

早安，Ken。

Great. Good morning. Can you just talk on the volatility, is the thermal more fixed contractually? And given the concern on global demand, what drives that volatility and how quick can we see that change?

很好。早安。你能談談波動性嗎？動力煤（thermal）在合約上是否較為固定？另外，考量到對全球需求的擔憂，是什麼驅動這種波動性？我們多快能看到變化？

Well, Ken, this is Clarence. The volatility is in just about all of those markets. We have, for this remaining part of 2012, less volatility in the thermal part of our business, because most of those contracts were negotiated last year and are applicable in this calendar year. The metallurgical tends to be more volatile, as the infrastructure demands and demands of both Europe and Asia for infrastructure is moving all over the place, particularly with some of the softening that we've seen in China.

Ken，我是Clarence。波動性幾乎存在於所有那些市場。就2012年剩餘期間而言，我們在動力煤業務這一塊的波動性較小，因為多數合約是在去年談定，並適用於本曆年。冶金煤（metallurgical）往往更具波動性，因為基礎建設需求，以及歐洲與亞洲對基礎建設的需求都在大幅變動，特別是我們在中國看到的一些趨緩。

So when you talk about contractually being fixed, are you set on volumes as well on the thermal side?

所以你提到合約上較為固定時，動力煤這邊的運量也已經鎖定了嗎？

That's right, yes.

沒錯，是的。

Okay. Great. Then on fuel, WTI dropped $10 sequentially, yet fuel per gallon fell only to $3.14 from $3.15. Last year from 3Q to 4Q when you had a similar $10 drop, your per gallon fell a lot faster. And I know the crack spreads were up a bit. But can you talk about why we didn't see fuel per gallon fall maybe a bit faster?

好的。很好。那在燃油方面，WTI環比下跌10美元，但每加侖燃油只從3.15美元降到3.14美元。去年從第三季到第四季，當時也有類似的10美元跌幅，你們的每加侖價格下降得快得多。我知道裂解價差（crack spreads）有上升一些。但你能談談為什麼我們沒有看到每加侖燃油價格下降得更快一些嗎？

Yes, I think we've seen a little bit of a divergence this quarter between our fuel price and WTI, which I think most people know. But if you look at HDF, highway diesel fuel, and our fuel price, they are very similar. So we have seen, between heating oil and WTI, a little bit of a divergence. But we're very consistent with what highway diesel fuel was in the quarter.

是的，我想我們這一季確實看到我們的燃油價格與WTI之間出現了一點分歧，這點我想多數人都知道。但如果你看HDF（公路柴油燃料，highway diesel fuel）以及我們的燃油價格，它們非常接近。因此我們確實看到取暖油（heating oil）與WTI之間有些分歧。但我們與本季公路柴油燃料的水準非常一致。

Great. Appreciate the time.

很好。感謝撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question is from Tom Wadewitz with JPMorgan.

謝謝。下一個問題來自JPMorgan的Tom Wadewitz。

Good morning, Tom.

早安，Tom。

Good morning. I wanted to delve a little further into the export question. When we think about the origination area you have for your exports, to central App primarily, it seems that that's a high cost region, that on the thermal side might have challenges if you look out a bit further. So can you give some comments on how you think about that and think about sustainability of the thermal export side, and I guess whether you have any contracted in when you look to 2013?

早安。我想更深入探討一下出口的問題。當我們思考你們出口的貨源（origination）區域，主要在中阿帕拉契亞（central App），看起來那是一個高成本地區；若往更遠處看，動力煤這一端可能會面臨一些挑戰。所以你能評論一下你們如何看待這點、如何看待動力煤出口端的可持續性，以及我想問的是，當你們展望2013年時，是否已有任何合約鎖定？

Well, you know, a lot of our coal not only originates, as you're aware, for export in central App, but northern App is now a growing part of our portfolio for export coal, a very significant part of it. So to that, in that regard, it's been a very positive experience to what we've seen happen in northern Appalachia. Going forward for 2013, we're not prepared to talk about today if we have any contractual commitments for thermal coal in 2013, because it's too early, just to be honest with you, to give you any kind of sense of that.

嗯，你知道的，我們的煤不僅如你所知在中阿帕拉契亞作為出口來源，北阿帕拉契亞（northern App）現在也成為我們出口煤組合中成長的一部分，而且是非常重要的一部分。因此就這點而言，我們在北阿帕拉契亞所看到的發展，是非常正面的經驗。至於2013年往前看，我們今天還不準備談是否對2013年的動力煤有任何合約承諾，因為老實說現在還太早，無法給你任何這方面的概念。

Okay. And then the second question. Last year, you had -- when you look at third quarter, there is -- I think volume was weaker than expected and you were hiring to -- you had some resource additions to address the fluidity and velocity. And so you had some challenges on incremental margin in second half of the year last year, gives you a somewhat easier comparison, I would think, on margins this year. So would you expect to see that come through in accelerating margin improvement in second half and accelerating earnings? Or are there additional things that may offset that when you look to the second half?

好的。第二個問題。去年你們——如果看第三季，當時——我想運量比預期更弱，而你們為了改善流動性與周轉速度（fluidity and velocity）而在招募、增加一些資源。因此去年下半年在增量毛利（incremental margin）方面有一些挑戰，這使得我認為今年在毛利比較上會相對容易一些。所以你是否預期這會反映在下半年毛利改善加速、獲利加速上？或者在展望下半年時，是否還有其他因素可能抵銷這些影響？

Well, I think, Tom, what we've said in terms of guidance has been our full-year guidance, both in terms of earnings growth and margin expansion. And I think -- so I think we're going to stick with that guidance. There are a couple of things, pluses and minuses as we move into the second half of the year. But we're going to obviously focus on the things that we control the most, which is to continue to drive productivity and inflation-plus pricing. And I think we've laid out some of the things on the cost side that we have in individual line items. So I don't think we're going to give a second half or quarterly guidance there, but we continue to drive value and I think we've got off to a pretty good start here in the first half of the year.

嗯，我想，Tom，就指引而言，我們所說的是我們的全年指引，包含獲利成長與利潤率擴張兩方面。而我想——所以我想我們會維持這個指引不變。隨著我們進入下半年，有幾件事情有利也有不利。但我們顯然會聚焦在我們最能掌控的事情上，也就是持續推動生產力提升，以及高於通膨的定價。而且我想我們也已經就成本面在各個個別科目上列出了一些事項。所以我不認為我們會提供下半年或單季的指引，但我們會持續創造價值，而我認為今年上半年我們的開局相當不錯。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question is from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski。

Good morning, Brandon.

早安，Brandon。

Good morning, everyone. First, I would just like to ask about the incentive compensation. So, Fredrik, are you suggesting that the accrual is going to change in the third quarter, or that just that the year-on-year comparisons become less favorable?

各位早安。首先，我想問一下關於獎勵性薪酬。所以，Fredrik，你的意思是第三季的應計會改變，還是只是年對年比較會變得較不有利？

Yes, sequentially going forward, the accrual will stay the same, from what we're seeing right now. The big driver is going to be that last year in the first half, we were accruing at a certain level, and as the economy moderated in the second half and we made some of our resource additions, we had to reverse some of those accruals. So as you get to the second half, you will see that year-over-year comparison being very different than what you saw here in the first half.

是的，就目前我們所看到的情況，往後按季來看，應計將會維持不變。主要的驅動因素是，去年上半年我們以某個水準提列應計，而隨著下半年經濟降溫、以及我們增加了一些資源配置，我們不得不回轉（沖回）部分應計。因此到了下半年，你會看到年對年的比較會與今年上半年所看到的非常不同。

Okay. Thank you on that one. And then Oscar, now that you've had some time in the operator's seat, obviously you guys are taking your productivity targets up this year. Can you just highlight some of the biggest opportunities that you've noticed after being in the seat for six or seven months now, and what you're really targeting going forward?

好的。這點謝謝。接著 Oscar，現在你坐上營運者的位置也有一段時間了，顯然你們今年也上調了生產力目標。你能否重點說明一下，在你上任六、七個月後所注意到的一些最大機會，以及你們接下來真正要鎖定的方向？

You know, Brandon, it's not so much anything that I've noticed in the past month. And this has been a multi-year effort from CSX and in productivity is driven from basically all areas, specifically crew efficiencies, engineering and mechanical labor savings, fuel, improved car cycles is I think kind of a new initiative around service to customers that has been really, really effective. And so there's just a host of things around there. So nothing new and magical, just continued great work from that team.

你知道的，Brandon，這不太是我在過去一個月才注意到的事情。這是 CSX 多年來的努力；而生產力基本上是由各個領域共同推動，特別是乘務效率、工程與機務的人力節省、燃料、以及改善車輛週轉——我認為這算是一項較新的、圍繞客戶服務的倡議，而且非常、非常有效。所以這裡面有一整套的事情。沒有什麼新的魔法，就是那個團隊持續做得很棒。

Okay. Thanks, everyone.

好的。謝謝各位。

Our next question is from Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

下一個問題來自 Citi 的 Chris Wetherbee。

Good morning, Chris.

早安，Chris。

Great, thanks. Good morning. Maybe first one, on the export coal side. Could you give us a sense of what the split is on exports now between thermal and met, or at least what it was in the second quarter?

很好，謝謝。早安。也許先問第一個，關於出口煤。你們能否讓我們了解一下，目前出口在動力煤與冶金煤之間的分拆比例，或至少第二季的比例？

Chris, this is Clarence. It's 60/40 thermal. 60% thermal, 40% --

Chris，我是 Clarence。是 60/40 的動力煤。60% 動力煤，40%——

Second quarter.

第二季。

Second quarter.

第二季。

Second quarter. Okay. Is that likely, just given the demand patterns, to stay relatively fixed going forward?

第二季。好的。考量需求型態，這個比例往後是否可能大致維持不變？

That's a good question. Right now, for the first half, it's 50/50. You saw a fairly dramatic shift in the second quarter. You could see something similar to that in the third quarter.

這是個好問題。目前就上半年而言是 50/50。你在第二季看到相當明顯的轉變。第三季你也可能會看到類似的情況。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just switching gears onto the productivity side, Oscar, just wanted to get a sense, if you could give us roughly where you are in the progress towards the $180 million or above through the first two quarters of the year?

好的。這很有幫助。接著換個話題到生產力方面，Oscar，我想了解一下，如果可以的話，你能否大概說明今年前兩季在達成 1.8 億美元或以上目標的進度到哪裡了？

We are significantly on the way there.

我們已經走了很大一段路。

We have a good line of sight to it.

我們對達成目標有很高的能見度。

I have very clear and present sight of that.

我對此有非常清楚且即時的掌握。

Okay. All right. Fair enough. Thank you very much for the time. Appreciate it.

好的。好吧。可以理解。非常感謝你們撥冗。感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question is from Chris Ceraso with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Credit Suisse 的 Chris Ceraso。

Good morning, Chris.

早安，Chris。

Thanks. Good morning. Just a quick follow-up on that. How much of the productivity gains are a function of the really strong performance versus stuff that's more permanent, like changes in your infrastructure, your headcount? In other words, if productivity in some future quarter erodes, will you lose some of what you've gained here?

謝謝。早安。就剛才那點快速追問一下。生產力提升有多少是來自於非常強勁的表現所致，多少是更永久性的因素，例如基礎設施或人力編制的變動？換句話說，如果未來某一季生產力下滑，你們會失去這裡已取得的一部分成果嗎？

It's a great question. I don't know that we break it out that way, but I can tell you that all the initiatives that we have are, in effect, designed to create sustainable advantage over the long-term. They are not near-term one-time kind of events. So if you look at for example our productivity per employee over the many years, it's been improving significantly. So I would say a majority of the things have long-lasting value and there is some, certainly--

這是個很好的問題。我不確定我們是否會用那種方式去拆分，但我可以告訴你，我們所有的倡議，實際上都是為了在長期創造可持續的優勢而設計。它們不是短期的一次性事件。所以如果你看例如我們多年來的人均生產力，一直在顯著改善。因此我會說，多數事項具有長期價值，當然也有一些——

-- probably the furlough retention board is probably the only really temporal.

——可能留職停薪（furlough）留任名單大概是唯一真正偏短期的。

There are a host of things like that over the course of time. But these things are designed to create lasting value. So I would sway to the majority of on our productivity is sustainable.

隨著時間推移，還有一整套類似的事情。但這些都是為了創造持久價值而設計。所以我會傾向認為，我們的生產力提升大多是可持續的。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, just a question on pricing. I think Clarence said core same-store pricing was running at 3% to 4%. That's a bit lower than where you have been. I think even in Q1, you said it was 5% to 6%. Can you give us a little more detail on what changed, maybe some categories where you had issues, or what drove the apparent slowdown in your pricing growth in Q2 relative to the prior quarters?

好的。接著追問一下定價。我想 Clarence 說核心同店定價約在 3% 到 4%。這比你們先前的水準低一些。我想甚至在第一季你們說是 5% 到 6%。你能否更詳細說明一下有什麼改變，是否有某些類別遇到問題，或是什麼因素導致第二季相較前幾季定價成長看起來放緩？

The first quarter had a lot of impact of carry-over from the previous year's pricing, was the main driver.

第一季主要受到前一年定價結轉效應的影響很大，這是主要驅動因素。

We're still achieving above inflation.

我們仍然達成高於通膨。

Still achieving above inflation, and that's in the 3% to 4% range, excluding that decline we had in export coal.

仍然達成高於通膨；若排除出口煤下滑的影響，約在 3% 到 4% 的區間。

So to the extent that Q1 had some carry-over, maybe the run rate going forward looks more like what you just achieved in Q2?

所以如果第一季有一些結轉效應，那麼往後的運行水準可能更接近你們在第二季剛達成的水準？

That's right, yes.

沒錯，是的。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Our next question is from Justin Yagerman with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自 Deutsche Bank 的 Justin Yagerman。

Good morning, Justin.

早安，Justin。

Good morning. Wanted a point of clarification on the ag outlook. When you're talking about stable, is that year-over-year or sequential? And then I guess tagging onto that, I'm kind of curious as to how you think about ag or potential ag weakness in H2. You know, we've seen you guys react really nimbly to the coal declines that we've obviously seen in the back half of last year, first half of this year. How are precipitous changes or declines in ag volumes different from coal volumes in your network, and how can we think about that in terms of potential profitability drag?

早安。我想就農業展望請教一點釐清。您提到「穩定」時，指的是年對年，還是季對季？另外延伸這點，我也想了解您如何看待下半年農業或潛在的農業走弱。您也知道，我們看到你們對於去年下半年、今年上半年明顯的煤炭下滑反應非常靈活。在你們的網路中，農產品運量出現急遽變化或下滑，與煤炭運量有何不同？我們又該如何從潛在獲利拖累的角度來思考？

Well, this -- Justin, this is Clarence. The ag comparison is on a year-over-year basis. If you look at the most recent data that the USDA has put out, they have taken the yield down, as you're aware, substantially. The official number is around 146. There is some forecast at 145. There is some that believe the number for yield per acre will come in around 140 to 142. So if it stays in that 142 to the 145 range, the crop this year, because of the acres planted, will essentially be the same size crop as last year, which would be the third largest crop on record. So it's down from where everyone thought it was going to be, but it's roughly about where it was last year. And what is impacting, in our view, the price per bushel on the corn is that demand for corn itself has gone up. Now, how that could possibly impact our cost? Most of our ag business, our grain business is run in unit trains, and as Oscar has demonstrated his ability to adjust the resources and the crews for the unit train networks, coal being the specific example, this without question is something that he does very well, that our company does very well. So we feel very positive about what will happen in our ag business here in the last half.

嗯，Justin，我是Clarence。農業的比較是以年對年為基礎。如果你看USDA最近公布的數據，他們已如你所知，大幅下修單產。官方數字大約在146。也有一些預測在145。也有人認為每英畝單產會落在約140到142。所以如果維持在142到145的區間，今年的作物因為播種面積的關係，整體產量基本上會與去年相當，這將是史上第三大作物產量。因此它確實低於大家原先預期的水準，但大致上與去年差不多。而我們認為影響玉米每蒲式耳價格的因素，是玉米本身的需求上升。那這可能如何影響我們的成本？我們大部分的農業業務、穀物業務是以單元列車（unit trains）運行；而正如Oscar展現的能力，他能針對單元列車網路調整資源與乘務，煤炭就是一個具體例子——毫無疑問，這是他非常擅長的，也是我們公司非常擅長的。所以我們對於下半年農業業務的表現感到非常正面。

Okay. That's really helpful. Thanks, Clarence. Curious on autos, you know, when I think about the economy here, it definitely feels like we've got some sliding on the manufacturing side, and you're getting backfilled by housing and autos; and it just showed up in the car load data, not just for you guys, but for most of the rails. Are you getting any forward read from your auto customers as to what the outlook is like there? Can you give us a little bit more color over what your expectations are for the second half? I think that's probably -- if there's one point of susceptibility in the economy domestically, that feels like it's it. So I would be curious to hear your comments.

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝你，Clarence。我想問汽車方面，你知道，當我看目前的經濟狀況，製造業端確實感覺有些走弱，而房市與汽車在補上；而這也反映在車皮裝載量數據上，不只是你們，多數鐵路公司也是如此。你們是否從汽車客戶那邊得到任何前瞻訊號，了解那邊的展望如何？能否再多提供一些你們對下半年的預期細節？我想這大概是——如果說國內經濟有一個較脆弱的點，感覺就是這裡。所以我很想聽聽你們的看法。

Well, our automotive customers, as we speak with them, are very encouraged going forward. As you know, we started off with a much lower North American light vehicle manufacturing rate than what we're currently at, at 14.9. Manufacturers themselves have voiced concerns throughout the year in many forums about the rail's ability to have the car fleets that are necessary to support the volume growth they anticipate having, which we and the other rail carriers in North America are working diligently, both in adding cars to the fleet, as well as sustaining these high velocity numbers that you're seeing from Oscar here to turn the fleet faster and to serve it. And if you look at the average age of the automobiles and light trucks in the United States, they are some of the highest numbers that they have been post-World War II. The ability to secure financing, and particularly longer-term financing in the range of six years, has proved to be positive for the consumer as they go to purchase automobiles. Chrysler, for example, are adding third shifts to their Belvedere plant. Hyundai at Montgomery is adding third shifts to their plant. So I feel nothing but positive things about the automotive industry as we go forward.

嗯，我們與汽車客戶溝通時，他們對未來非常受到鼓舞。如你所知，我們起初的北美輕型車製造年化率遠低於目前的14.9。製造商本身今年在許多場合都表達過疑慮，擔心鐵路是否有足夠的車輛車隊來支撐他們預期的運量成長；我們以及北美其他鐵路業者都在努力，一方面增加車隊車輛數，另一方面也維持你從Oscar這裡看到的高周轉速度，讓車隊更快周轉並提供服務。而如果你看美國汽車與輕型卡車的平均車齡，已是二戰後的高檔水準之一。取得融資的能力，特別是六年期左右的長期融資，已證明對消費者購車是正面的。例如Chrysler正在其Belvedere工廠增加第三班。Hyundai在Montgomery的工廠也在增加第三班。所以展望未來，我對汽車產業只有正面的看法。

Great. And just -- sorry, quick point of clarification. I know I have to turn it over. You said the 3% to 4% core pricing includes or does not include the decline in the met tariff?

很好。另外——抱歉，快速釐清一下。我知道我得把時間交出去。你說的3%到4%核心定價，是否包含冶金煤（met）運價下滑的影響？還是不包含？

Does not include the decline in export coal.

不包含出口煤炭的下滑。

So what would it have been with the decline?

那如果把下滑算進去，會是多少？

It would have been much weaker.

會弱很多。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Our next question is from Ben Hartford with Baird.

下一個問題來自Baird的Ben Hartford。

Good morning, Ben.

早安，Ben。

Good morning. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about some concerns about the ILA dispute here, with the September 30 deadline, whether you're taking some proactive measures, whether shippers are addressing some of those concerns. Can you talk a little bit about the dynamics ahead of that?

早安。我想請你談談對於這次ILA爭議的一些擔憂，9月30日的期限將至，你們是否採取一些前瞻性的措施，或是託運人是否在處理這些疑慮。能否談談在那之前的動態情況？

Could you repeat that again, please?

可以請你再重複一次嗎？

Sorry. Just talking about the ILA, the port dispute here on the East Coast. I've heard some anecdotes about shippers being cognizant of potential stoppages here ahead of the September 30 contract expiration. I'm just wondering if you've heard anything to that end, whether you've seen some shippers on the international, intermodal side that have taken proactive measures to adjust freight flows ahead of any sort of potential disruptions that might surround that event.

抱歉。就是談ILA，也就是東岸港口的勞資爭議。我聽到一些傳聞，說託運人已注意到9月30日合約到期前可能出現停工。我想了解你們是否也聽到類似訊息；在國際、聯運（intermodal）這一端，你們是否看到一些託運人已採取前瞻性措施，在任何可能圍繞該事件的潛在干擾發生前，先調整貨物流向？

Yes. As a matter of fact, you'll recall that the ILA gave a fairly inflammatory speech at the Trans-Pacific Conference a couple of months ago about the potential of labor unrest on the East Coast. Some, not all, of our customers have begun to make adjustments in those flows of freight coming to the East Coast. The East Coast ports have taken the position that there's no issues here that can't be worked out.

是的。事實上，你會記得ILA在幾個月前的跨太平洋會議上，曾發表相當激烈的談話，提到東岸可能出現勞動動盪。我們有些客戶——不是全部——已開始對流向東岸的貨物流做出調整。東岸港口方面則表態，認為這裡沒有什麼問題是不能解決的。

My own personal view is that I don't think it would be in labor's best interest to have a strike in the face of a presidential election, but we've seen no material changes in our traffic flows up to this point.

我個人的看法是，在總統大選的背景下，我不認為罷工符合勞方的最佳利益；但截至目前，我們的運輸流向並未看到任何實質性的變化。

Good. And then into that, and assuming that there isn't a disruption, what are your expectations for the quote, unquote peak season as we go through the back half of the year in terms of a build relative to normal seasonality?

很好。接著，在假設沒有干擾的情況下，你們對於所謂的「旺季」——也就是今年下半年——相較於正常季節性，預期會有多大的增量？

We expect a peak season. We expect it to be a slight peak season, not a big spike, but an appreciable increase, as we move into the fall peak season.

我們預期會有旺季。我們預期會是小幅旺季，不會是很大的尖峰，但隨著進入秋季旺季，會有可觀的增加。

Great. Thanks for the time.

很好。謝謝你撥冗。

Our next question is from Jason Seidl with Dahlman Rose.

下一個問題來自Dahlman Rose的Jason Seidl。

Good morning, Jason.

早安，Jason。

Good morning. How are you today?

早安。你今天好嗎？

Good.

很好。

I want to talk a little bit about the core pricing. Wasn't really a surprise to us, as our survey sort of indicated that, just before earnings season here. But as I think longer term about rail cost inflation, hasn't it typically run above 3% longer term as opposed to just sort of recently last year?

我想談一下核心定價。這對我們來說不算意外，因為我們的調查在財報季開始前就大致顯示了這點。但從更長期來看鐵路成本通膨，長期而言它通常不是高於3%嗎？而不只是像去年那樣相對近期的水準？

Yes, I think longer term, when we look at inflation-plus pricing, we're estimated to be somewhere between 3%, 3.5%, maybe 4% in certain years. So that is correct. This year, it's a little bit lower than it's been previously.

是的，我認為從較長期來看，當我們看「通膨加成」定價時，我們估計大約會落在 3% 到 3.5% 之間，某些年度可能到 4%。所以這是正確的。今年則比先前略低一些。

Okay. So with that backdrop, when you look at 3% to 4% core pricing, ex- what had to be done on the export side, getting to Chris' question, where has been the pressure points? And is it just competition from truck that's pressuring it? Is it the overall economy that's pressuring some of the pricing gains now? Could you walk us through that?

好的。那在這樣的背景下，當你看 3% 到 4% 的核心定價（不含——出口端必須做的那些調整），回到 Chris 的問題，壓力點主要在哪裡？只是卡車競爭在施壓嗎？還是整體經濟正在壓抑目前部分的漲價幅度？你能帶我們梳理一下嗎？

Well, my view is it's been the overall economy that's been pressuring some of the pricing gains that's in it. You know, pricing itself is fundamentally the law of supply and demand. There's been a lot of excess transportation capacity, not only on the rails, but in the trucks and in the barges and in the pipeline systems in America. And so there has been some pressure on that pricing as we've moved forward. So that would be one point. The second point would be that earlier in the decade, we had a lot of legacy pricing, particularly on our coal side, that was coming due. And that has now begun to manifest itself, and there's no new coal opportunities that's presenting itself in the utility segment of our business.

嗯，我的看法是，主要是整體經濟正在壓抑其中一些定價漲幅。你知道，定價本質上就是供需法則。美國運輸產能過剩很多，不只鐵路，卡車、駁船以及管線系統也是。因此，隨著我們往前走，定價確實承受了一些壓力。這是第一點。第二點是，在本十年初期，我們有不少歷史合約定價（legacy pricing），特別是在煤炭業務端，陸續到期。而這現在開始反映出來；同時，在我們業務的公用事業（utility）板塊，並沒有出現新的煤炭機會。

Okay. Thanks for the color there. My follow-up question. Fred, you talked about the accrual for incentive compensation last year sort of reversing in the second half of the year. Are we to expect then, in terms of a year-over-year comparison for this year to be higher than last year?

好的。謝謝你提供這些背景。我接著問一題。Fred，你提到去年獎勵性薪酬的應計（accrual）在下半年有點反轉。那我們是否可以預期，今年做年對年比較時會比去年更高？

I think in terms of our labor line, and I think I outlined the two key drivers earlier, which is headcount we expect essentially to be flat going forward, and we expect about a $10 million increase due to the inflationary pressure and the salary increase for our union employees. I think if you start with this quarter as a base and you factored those two things in, I think you have a good starting point for what the third quarter will look like.

我想就我們的人力成本（labor）項目來看，我先前也概述了兩個關鍵驅動因素：第一，我們預期未來人頭數基本持平；第二，因通膨壓力以及工會員工的薪資調升，我們預期會增加約 1,000 萬美元。我認為如果你以本季作為基準，把這兩件事納入考量，你就能對第三季的樣貌有一個不錯的起點。

So Fred, just to make sure I heard you right, so that $10 million hit, does that include accruals?

所以 Fred，我只是確認我有聽清楚：那 1,000 萬美元的影響，包含應計嗎？

I think I answered the question earlier around the fact that sequentially going forward, our accrual for incentive comp is essentially flat. It's really last year that's driving the year-over-year comparison.

我想我先前已回答過：就序列（sequential）往後來看，我們的獎勵性薪酬應計基本上是持平。真正拉動年對年比較的是去年。

All right. So it will be essentially flat, but year-over-year will look higher.

了解。所以它基本上會持平，但年對年看起來會更高。

That's right.

沒錯。

Perfect. That's all I had. Gentlemen, thank you for the time.

完美。我就這些。各位先生，謝謝撥冗。

The next question is from David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一題來自 Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Good morning, David.

早安，David。

Good morning. Quick question on -- for Fredrik, on clarifying the fuel benefit. You mentioned the $17 million lag. Was that the fuel surcharge revenue increase or the operating income benefit?

早安。有個關於——給 Fredrik 的快速問題，想釐清燃油效益（fuel benefit）。你提到 1,700 萬美元的落後（lag）。那是燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）收入的增加，還是營業利益（operating income）的效益？

That was what we estimate the lag to be, which would be the -- which would be the operating income benefit. It happens to also be the same number as in Clarence's fuel surcharge change year-over-year.

那是我們估計的落後幅度，也就是——也就是營業利益的效益。剛好它也和 Clarence 提到的燃油附加費年對年變動數字相同。

Yes, so is that a revenue number, or is that --

是的，所以那是一個收入數字，還是——

My lag benefit is an operating income number.

我這邊的落後效益是營業利益的數字。

But is Clarence's number a revenue number?

但 Clarence 的數字是收入數字嗎？

Clarence's is a revenue number. They happened to be the same number, two different numbers, but yes, $17 million.

Clarence 的是收入數字。它們剛好是同一個數字、但代表兩個不同的項目；不過是的，都是 1,700 萬美元。

Okay. So we have $17 million more revenue and $21 million less expense. Wouldn't that be $38 million, or am I doing the math wrong?

好的。所以我們有多 1,700 萬美元的收入，以及少 2,100 萬美元的費用。那不就應該是 3,800 萬美元嗎？還是我算錯了？

You have to think about volume and efficiency, as well.

你也得把運量（volume）和效率（efficiency）一起考慮。

Okay. Okay. So in the other question, just broadly on intermodal, can you comment a little bit around how the length of haul may or may not be changing the business, with the recent growth and change in the mix with the Maersk business and domestic growth. And then how you guys think about the amount of capacity that's being brought into the eastern market and how that will be affecting your pricing strategy or pricing opportunities going forward?

好的。好的。那另一個問題是，廣泛談一下聯運（intermodal）：你能否評論一下，隨著近期成長以及 Maersk 業務與國內業務成長帶來的組合變化，運距（length of haul）是否正在改變、或不一定改變這門生意？另外，你們如何看待東部市場正在導入的產能規模，以及這將如何影響你們未來的定價策略或定價機會？

Well, I'm not sure that our length of haul has been impacted that much, because as we bring the Maersk business on board, a lot of it comes out of the west, and so it really doesn't impact the length of haul because of the interchange points. Our length of haul for the originating business on our core railroad essentially has remained fairly stable over the years, because of the lanes in which we operate. The additional capacity that's being brought on, I'm not sure that I understand your question. So ask me that again.

嗯，我不確定我們的運距受到很大影響，因為當我們把 Maersk 的業務納入時，其中很多是從西部出來的；因此由於交接點（interchange points）的關係，實際上不太影響運距。我們核心鐵路上、以起運（originating）為主的業務，其運距多年來基本相當穩定，因為取決於我們營運的路線（lanes）。至於新增導入的產能，我不確定我理解你的問題。所以你再問我一次。

So you guys are building out your corridor initiative, your competitor's building out a corridor initiative. And if you add up the number of lifts that are going to be added or available to the eastern marketplace, it's actually -- it's a substantial increase and it's a substantial opportunity. But I'm just wondering how you feel about that amount of capacity coming online at roughly the same time in a weakening sort of consumer environment.

你們正在推進走廊（corridor）計畫，你們的競爭對手也在推走廊計畫。如果把將新增或可供東部市場使用的吊裝量（lifts）加總起來，實際上——這是相當可觀的增加，也是相當大的機會。但我想知道的是，在消費環境走弱的情況下，這麼多產能大致同一時間上線，你們對此有何感受？

Well, we feel positive about that. And if you'll recall in our prepared remarks, we said there was an addressable market of, we thought in the east, of 9 million loads. That's in excess of 550 miles. So for example, we have an initiative we call H2R, highway to rail, in which we are sitting down with beneficial cargo owners and we're reviewing their portfolio of business and looking at what is adaptable to intermodal -- intermodal in a generic sense -- and what is adaptable specifically to CSX intermodal. And we've done that already with 56 different customers, and we have had a very high degree of success in converting both current users of intermodal and people who are first-time users of intermodal over to the product. So I think the capacity's pretty much in line with what the 9 million potential is.

嗯，我們對此感到正面。而且如果你還記得我們事先準備的發言，我們提到在東部有一個我們認為可觸及（addressable）的市場，大約是 900 萬車次（loads）。那是超過 550 英里的運距。例如，我們有一個稱為 H2R（highway to rail，公路轉鐵路）的計畫：我們會和貨主（beneficial cargo owners）坐下來，檢視他們的業務組合，看看哪些適合聯運——以一般意義的聯運——以及哪些特別適合 CSX 的聯運。我們已經和 56 個不同客戶做過這件事，而且在把現有聯運使用者、以及首次使用聯運的人轉換到我們的產品上，都取得非常高的成功率。所以我認為這些產能大致上與那 900 萬的潛在市場相匹配。

Okay. So in that H2R program then, are you guys -- you guys aren't actually marketing to the BCOs. That's going through your service partners, right?

好的。那在這個 H2R 計畫裡，你們——你們其實不是直接對 BCO 做行銷吧。是透過你們的服務合作夥伴（service partners），對嗎？

We do it jointly with our service partners, yes.

是的，我們會和服務合作夥伴共同進行。

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

好的。很好。非常感謝。

Our next question is from John Larkin with Stifel Nicolaus.

下一題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 John Larkin。

Good morning, John.

早安，John。

Good morning, all. Question for you on the tremendous improvement in what I would call network velocity, or fluidity. Both velocity and terminal dwell improved over 10%. It was a little confusing when we talked about headcount being up 4%. I guess if you adjust out the people on the retention board, it's only up 1% year-over-year. Is there still some room if volumes remain roughly where they are to perhaps tighten down on the headcount a bit, or am I missing something here?

各位早安。我有個問題，關於我所稱的網路速度（network velocity）或流動性（fluidity）的巨大改善。速度與場站停留時間（terminal dwell）都改善了超過 10%。但當我們談到人頭數增加 4% 時，這有點令人困惑。我想如果把留任名單（retention board）上的人調整掉，年對年其實只增加 1%。如果運量大致維持在目前水準，是否仍有一些空間可以把人力再收緊一點？還是我漏掉了什麼？

There is, in our mind, always room for progress and improvement. And so I would answer that question affirmatively, yes.

在我們看來，始終有進步與改善的空間。因此我會肯定地回答那個問題，是的。

So there's room. And then could you describe, Oscar or Fredrik, the difference between putting an employee on retention furlough versus putting him on full furlough? Is there an economic cost to keeping them sort of ready to jump back into the force if needed quickly?

所以是有空間的。接著你能否請 Oscar 或 Fredrik 說明一下，把員工列入留任待命（retention furlough）與讓他們完全停薪留職（full furlough）之間的差異？讓他們保持某種隨時可迅速回到人力編制的狀態，是否會有經濟成本？

Yes, I just gave you a quick definition of what we do on the retention boards. It's kind of a designation for a contract employee that guarantees two paid days of service per week as opposed to a full furlough, obviously, where they are gone seven days. So that's the two-fifths, two-sevenths, I guess is the best way of gathering that economic thing. The benefit, as you know, is we can bring them back a lot more quickly than we can with the traditional furloughs.

是的，我剛才已快速定義了我們在留任名單（retention boards）上所做的事。這有點像是對合約員工的一種指定：每週保證兩天的有薪服務；相較之下，完全停薪留職很明顯就是他們七天都不在。所以那就是五分之二、或我想說七分之二，這大概是衡量那個經濟面向的最佳方式。如你所知，其好處是我們能比傳統停薪留職更快把他們召回。

And just to build on that, what Oscar just said, we're obviously monitoring that very closely to see what makes the most sense. If we have short-term changes in volume, we put them on the retention board, because we just trained the employees and brought them on and then -- but if we do think that there are longer-term needs to draw down the resource levels, we put them on furlough. And we monitor that very closely.

再補充 Oscar 剛才所說的，我們顯然正非常密切地監控，看看哪種做法最合理。如果我們遇到短期的量能變動，我們會把他們放在留任名單上，因為我們才剛訓練完員工並把他們招進來，然後——但如果我們認為有較長期需要下調資源水位，我們就會讓他們停薪留職。而我們會非常密切地監控。

And you also get the attrition coming in, too. As attrition kicks in during the course of the year, obviously there's people that move off the furlough retention board to full-time employment.

而且你也會看到自然流失（attrition）發生。隨著一年當中自然流失開始出現，很明顯會有人從留任待命名單轉回全職雇用。

Right.

對。

So overall, we said our headcount for the rest of the year should remain relatively flat from what we have right now, obviously up or down depending ultimately on what happens with volume. But our best guess right now is it's going to be relatively flat.

所以整體而言，我們說今年剩餘期間的人頭數應該會相對持平，與我們目前的水準差不多，當然最終仍會依量能變化而上或下。但我們目前最好的判斷是會相對持平。

Is there a difference in fringes based on whether someone is full-time, retention board, or furloughed?

在福利（fringes）方面，依全職、留任名單或停薪留職而有所不同嗎？

When they are actually furloughed, John, they get four months of health and welfare coverage after the furlough. If they are on a retention board, they keep the health and welfare coverage the entire time.

John，當他們實際進入停薪留職時，停薪留職後他們可再享有四個月的健康與福利保障。如果他們在留任名單上，則在整段期間都能保有健康與福利保障。

That's very helpful. Thank you.

這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Our next question is from Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Good morning, Cherilyn.

早安，Cherilyn。

Thanks very much. Good morning. Just wanted to ask you a question on your outlook slide. If I compare that this quarter versus last quarter, you're still positive with respect to the outlook for about 60% of your volume, but there have been a fair number of changes in terms of the traffic segments that are characterized as favorable versus neutral, with export coal and chemicals moving up and three of the categories, metals, forest products, and ferts moving down. How should we interpret that?

非常感謝。早安。我想就你們的展望投影片問一個問題。如果我把本季和上季相比，你們對約 60% 的運量展望仍偏正面，但在被歸類為有利（favorable）與中性（neutral）的運輸分項上有相當多變化：出口煤與化學品上調，而三個類別——金屬、林產品與肥料——下調。我們應該如何解讀？

Cherilyn, I would interpret it as normal market forces and changes throughout the year. The metals part of the business has started to show some decline both in the sheet side, although not related to automotive in terms of sheet, but related to the oil and gas industry with the number of rigs that's coming down in there. The forest products side, although, has been up and building products has been down in general paper side of the business. And then our fertilizer markets, as we said in our prepared remarks, we had actually expected a bigger first half than what we have. Lot of people sit on the sidelines waiting for the commodity prices to decline. That won't last forever.

Cherilyn，我會把它解讀為正常的市場力量，以及一年當中持續發生的變化。金屬業務已開始出現一些下滑，無論是在薄板（sheet）端——雖然薄板並非與汽車相關，而是與油氣產業相關，因為那邊的鑽機數量正在下降。林產品方面則是上升，但建材下滑，而整體紙品端的業務也在下滑。至於肥料市場，如同我們在事先準備的發言中所說，我們原本預期上半年會比實際更強。很多人選擇觀望，等待商品價格下跌。但那不會永遠持續。

Okay. And so would you say that things are a little more dynamic than usual in terms of market conditions, and is that impacting your ability to plan?

好的。那你會說市場狀況比平常更具動態變化嗎？這是否影響你們的規劃能力？

I would say the entire market is much more dynamic than usual because of some of the economic uncertainty you see as we approach the presidential elections.

我會說整體市場確實比平常更具動態變化，因為在接近總統大選之際，你會看到一些經濟不確定性。

Okay. Thank you. That's all for me.

好的。謝謝。我這邊就到這裡。

Our next question is from Anthony Gallo with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Anthony Gallo。

Good morning, Anthony.

早安，Anthony。

Good morning. Thank you. I see $100 million in operating income improvement through the first half of the year, but if I strip out the deferred gain, I get $61 million. How much of that was from productivity, the $180 million that you mentioned? How much of that was achieved in the first half?

早安。謝謝。我看到今年上半年營業利益改善了 1 億美元，但如果我把遞延收益（deferred gain）剔除，就只剩 6,100 萬美元。其中有多少來自你提到的 1.8 億美元生產力（productivity）？上半年達成了多少？

I think you got a lot of pluses and minuses in there. You got inflation. You got productivity, obviously. To it's hard to isolate how much is what. But as Oscar indicated before, the full year is $180 million. He's got great line of sight to that. And so it's hard to isolate specifically how much of that $60 million was related to what.

我想裡面有很多正負因素交錯。有通膨。也有生產力，顯然。所以很難拆分出各自占多少。但如 Oscar 先前所指出的，全年是 1.8 億美元。他對此有很高的可視性。因此很難具體拆解那 6,000 萬美元中有多少分別來自哪些因素。

But, Anthony, it's Oscar. We don't mean to be coy. The 180-plus, the plus portion is things that we're still finalizing and documenting. We will update you on that as we can, whenever that final number is. If you think of a ratable spread across quarters of that final number, I think that's a good way of looking at how we've achieved the productivity, first quarter, first half, and so on, henceforth. It will deviate a little bit from that. But I think a ratable spread is probably the best way of thinking through that.

不過，Anthony，我是 Oscar。我們不是故意含糊其詞。180 以上的「以上」那部分，是我們仍在最後定案與文件化的項目。一旦最終數字確定，我們會在可以的時候更新你。如果你把那個最終數字按季度平均攤提來看，我認為這是理解我們如何達成生產力（第一季、上半年等）的好方法，往後亦然。它會與平均攤提略有偏離。但我認為平均攤提大概是最好的思考方式。

Okay. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.

好的。我回到排隊序列。謝謝。

Our next question is from Peter Nesvold with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Peter Nesvold。

Good morning, Peter.

早安，Peter。

Good morning. So I thought the operating ratio this quarter was particularly impressive, given the headwinds in coal. In the prepared comments, you mentioned a couple of times that export coal is going to be down in the second half versus the first half. I think there's some market perception that export coal is a lot more profitable. And so my question, my first question would be, is there any reason to believe that you should not be able to defend your OR as well in the second half as you have in the first half, given a decline, a sequential decline in export coal?

早安。我覺得本季的營運比率（operating ratio）特別令人印象深刻，考量到煤炭的逆風。在事先準備的評論中，你們提到好幾次，下半年出口煤會比上半年下滑。市場上似乎認為出口煤的獲利能力高得多。所以我的第一個問題是：在出口煤出現環比下滑的情況下，有沒有任何理由認為你們在下半年無法像上半年那樣捍衛你們的 OR？

As I said earlier, I think both in prepared remarks and to a question, we have a guidance for the full year to improve our operating ratio for this full year, and we're not going to get into specific quarterly guidance or second half guidance. But we feel good about what we've done here in the first half. We got off to a great start. We're going to continue to try to drive margin expansion any time we can, but we're not going to give you a specific number for the second half.

如我先前所說，無論是在事先準備的發言或回答問題時，我們對全年都有指引：今年全年我們將改善營運比率，而我們不會提供特定季度指引或下半年指引。但我們對上半年的表現感到滿意。我們有一個非常好的開局。我們會在任何可能的時候持續推動利潤率擴張，但我們不會給你下半年的具體數字。

Okay. Then my follow-up question is on intermodal yields, revenue per unit. So a little light, 2% or so in the quarter. How much of that might have been the timing of fuel surcharges? Does that differ in intermodal versus other commodity categories? How much of that might be length of haul or the new contract, or some other dynamic, such as truckload pricing? Thank you.

好的。那我接續的問題是關於聯運收益率、每單位收入。本季看起來有點偏弱，大約下滑2%左右。其中有多少可能是燃油附加費時點所致？這在聯運與其他商品類別之間是否有所不同？其中有多少可能是運距長短或新合約，或其他動態因素（例如整車運價）所造成？謝謝。

There were two major factors in it. Lower fuel prices and the business mix slowed the RPU growth in this quarter. So we had a higher increase in the international versus the domestic.

主要有兩個因素。較低的燃油價格以及業務組合，讓本季RPU成長放緩。因此，我們國際業務的增幅高於國內。

And then the other thing is you are -- I think you were alluding to it. You have a little quicker adjustment on the fuel surcharge for intermodal than you have on the rest of the business. So it just comes down a little quicker.

另外一點是你——我想你是在暗示這個。聯運的燃油附加費調整速度比其他業務稍快。所以它回落得也比較快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question is from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital.

下一個問題來自RBC Capital的Walter Spracklin。

Good morning, Walter.

早安，Walter。

Good morning, everyone. A couple clarification questions, really. First, on your guidance. When we look at 2012, you're guiding for growth this year. And I'm just curious, can you hit that guidance without the SunRail and tax benefits that you've incurred in the first half?

各位早安。我有幾個釐清問題。第一個，關於你們的指引。我們看2012年，你們指引今年會成長。我只是好奇，如果沒有上半年取得的SunRail與稅務利益，你們還能達成該指引嗎？

Well, we're not going to break down what is -- we're going to stick with the guidance that we have for the full year. The SunRail transaction is a transaction that we put in place because we think it's value accretive to CSX, and so that's part of our earnings picture for this year. It was part of the earnings picture last year, and it's going to be part of the earnings picture for next year. So we're going to stick with overall guidance that we're going to have earnings growth. Clearly, it's helping this year. Clearly, there are a lot of things that are negative this year. But given all of the things that are going on in the economy and everything else, we feel pretty good about what we've been able to accomplish so far, and we feel pretty good about what we're going to be able to accomplish in the second half of the year.

嗯，我們不會拆解哪些是——我們會維持目前對全年所給的指引。SunRail交易是我們之所以推動，是因為我們認為它能為CSX帶來增值，因此它是今年獲利版圖的一部分。它是去年獲利版圖的一部分，也會是明年獲利版圖的一部分。所以我們會維持整體指引：我們將實現獲利成長。很明顯，它今年確實有幫助。也很明顯，今年有很多不利因素。但考量經濟與其他各種情況，我們對目前為止能達成的成果感到相當不錯，也對下半年能達成的成果感到相當有信心。

Okay. Also on guidance here for the 2015, you had indicated that your 65% OR at the time that you put it together did not include, of course, a significant drop in your thermal coal business. Do you need a full recovery to hit that 65%? Or if volumes stay reasonably within these levels for coal, how much -- I don't know if you can give a sensitivity or if you've worked the numbers in around current coal prices, would you still be able to hit your 65% if coal prices -- or coal volume stayed at these levels?

了解。另外關於2015年的指引，你們曾表示，當初制定65%營運比率（OR）時，當然沒有納入動力煤業務大幅下滑的情況。要達到65%是否需要全面復甦？或者如果煤炭量大致維持在目前水準，你們能否提供一些敏感度——或你們是否已在目前煤價附近試算過——若煤價或煤量維持在這些水準，你們仍能達到65%嗎？

Well, we put out the original guidance a year ago. We had, like any company would do, given ourselves a little bit of a cushion to make sure we could absorb different things that occur along the way in such a long time period. Obviously, with the utility coal coming down as much as it has, that cushion, to a large degree, is gone, which is why we say that we still have line of sight, but it's going to be more challenging.

嗯，我們是在一年前提出原始指引。如同任何公司會做的，我們給自己留了一點緩衝，以確保在這麼長的期間內能吸收途中發生的不同變化。顯然，公用事業用煤下滑幅度如此之大，那個緩衝在很大程度上已經消失，這也是為什麼我們說仍然看得到達成路徑，但會更具挑戰。

Specific to your question about utility coal, I think what we are expecting is that utility coal will stabilize. We're not banking on a significant recovery. It would be great if it did. But right now, we want it to stabilize and perhaps just come up a little bit from where we're seeing the run rate being right now.

就你關於公用事業用煤的問題而言，我想我們的預期是公用事業用煤會趨於穩定。我們並沒有把顯著復甦納入假設。如果真的復甦當然很好。但就目前而言，我們希望它先穩定下來，並且可能從目前看到的運行水準小幅回升。

If I could just build on that for a minute. The other thing, Walter, is when we were building that forecast, and obviously, that's for 2015. As you know, a lot of the EPA regulations were certainly going to impact a lot of the coal plants by 2015. What we're really seeing now is those have kicked in earlier, because of the gas prices. So we had already factored into that guidance the fact there would be a reduced coal burn, solely from EPA regulations.

如果我可以再補充一下。另外一點，Walter，當我們在建立那個預測時——而且很明顯那是針對2015年——如你所知，許多EPA法規到2015年肯定會影響不少燃煤電廠。我們現在真正看到的是，因為天然氣價格的關係，這些影響更早就出現了。因此，我們在那份指引中已經把僅由EPA法規導致的燃煤消耗下降納入考量。

That's very helpful. That makes a lot of sense. For my last question, I don't want to sound obtuse on this or anything, but on the pricing side, it sounds like 3% to 4% excluding the coal, but we were including it when it was going up. I would like to look at a number -- a lot of investors are very focused on your pricing, so they are very conscious to any kind of non-apples to apples comparison. And this is just perhaps for future reference, would really like to get that pure pricing same-store number which includes your entire business, not just areas that are weak, like export coal. I'll just throw that out there. I'm not sure if you can provide any color on that.

這非常有幫助。這很合理。最後一個問題，我不想顯得遲鈍或怎樣，但在定價方面，聽起來扣除煤炭後是3%到4%，但當煤炭上升時我們是把它包含在內的。我希望能看到一個數字——很多投資人非常關注你們的定價，因此對任何非同口徑比較都很敏感。這只是供未來參考，我真的希望能拿到那種純粹、同店口徑的定價數字，涵蓋你們整體業務，而不只是弱勢領域，例如出口煤。我就提出這點。不確定你們是否能對此提供一些說明。

Our quarter 1 and quarter 2 pricing was very similar, with the exception of export coal. That's where I would like to leave it, if I could.

我們第一季與第二季的定價非常相近，唯一的例外是出口煤。如果可以的話，我就先說到這裡。

Fair enough. Okay. Thank you very much.

可以理解。好的。非常感謝。

Our next question is from Jeff Kaufman with Sterne Agee.

下一個問題來自Sterne Agee的Jeff Kaufman。

Good morning, Jeff.

早安，Jeff。

Good morning. Thank you, and congratulations in a real challenging quarter.

早安。謝謝你們，也恭喜在非常具挑戰的一季仍有表現。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just two quick questions. What are you paying today for diesel fuel?

兩個很快的問題。你們今天柴油燃料的採購價格是多少？

I don't have that in front of me, what we're paying today. But obviously, it's come down a little bit further from where it was. I think the reason day sales have ticked up a little bit. I don't have it in front of me.

我手邊沒有今天我們實際支付的價格。但很明顯，它比之前的水準又再降了一點。我想這也是應收帳款周轉天數（DSO）稍微上升的原因。我手邊沒有數字。

Okay. I'll get that from you off line then. Are we talking about a number south of $3?

了解。那我之後再私下跟你們要。我們談的是低於3美元的數字嗎？

I don't have that, but we can get that to you offline.

我沒有那個數字，但我們可以在會後提供給你。

Okay. Second question, which kind of backs up on an earlier question. When I look at the change in yield on the coal business, some of it's length of haul, some of it's pricing, but an awful lot of it's mix. Can you help us understand, going from 40/60 met to steam on export to 60/40, how much that might have affected the yield comp versus what was going on domestically?

好的。第二個問題，算是回到先前的一個問題。當我看煤炭業務的收益率變化時，一部分是運距長短，一部分是定價，但很大一部分是組合。你們能否協助我們理解，出口煤從冶金煤/動力煤40/60變成60/40，這對收益率同比的影響有多大，相較於國內業務當時的情況？

Well, I don't have a specific number for that, but I would tell you that it's strong, because the utility coal is moving at a higher RPU and the thermal part of the export coal is moving at a lower RPU than is the met. So when you see that mix increase with the thermal, it's going to significantly impact that RPU, depending on the percentage that it -- that the mix changes.

嗯，我沒有那方面的具體數字，但我可以告訴你影響很大，因為公用事業用煤的RPU較高，而出口煤中的動力煤部分，其RPU低於冶金煤。所以當你看到動力煤占比提高時，會對RPU造成顯著影響，取決於——取決於組合變動的百分比。

So I guess the point would be, if you're talking about staying at more of a 60/40 rate going forward and maybe domestic utilities bottomed, we don't know how quickly it recovers, then the incremental damage to the mix effect on yields has probably occurred at this point, maybe get better, who knows?

所以我想重點在於，如果你談的是未來維持大約60/40的比例，而且國內公用事業需求可能已經觸底，我們也不知道它會多快復甦，那麼對組合效應造成的殖利率增量損害，可能在此時點大致已經發生了，之後也許會改善，誰知道呢？

That's right.

沒錯。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Jeff, just getting back to your fuel question, based on the numbers we have right now, what we're looking at, it's about $2.97.

Jeff，回到你剛才關於燃料的問題，根據我們目前掌握的數字、以及我們正在看的情況，大約是2.97美元。

Okay. Thank you very much and congratulations.

好的。非常感謝，恭喜。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question is from Mark Levin with BB&T.

我們下一個問題來自BB&T的Mark Levin。

Good morning, Mark.

早安，Mark。

How are you? Just a couple quick questions, as they relate to coal. On the export side, and kind of thinking about this in 2013 maybe versus 2012, API 2 prices right now are 90, and when you look at the net backs, back to the central App guys, obviously it's very hard to make coal move profitably into Europe. When you think about 2013 exports, or even second half of the year, how does where API 2 prices factor into it? Can the exports sort of sustain themselves at 40 million-ton plus levels at an API 2 price consistent where we are today?

你好嗎？我有幾個關於煤炭的簡短問題。在出口端，若以2013年相對2012年來看，API 2價格目前是90；而當你看回推淨回收（netbacks）到中阿帕拉契亞（central App）的業者時，顯然要讓煤炭以獲利方式運往歐洲非常困難。你們在思考2013年的出口、甚至今年下半年時，API 2價格水準會如何影響？在API 2價格維持在今天這個水準的情況下，出口是否仍能維持在4,000萬噸以上的水準？

As we said earlier, most of the coal that we're selling in the thermal market that's being governed by the API 2 index in Europe was sold last year or the year before in forward curve contracts against that. So we feel pretty confident about the numbers that we've given you for 2012. It's just too soon to tell for 2013, because the market is volatile, the mix could change between thermal and met, something could go on different in Asia. So toward the end of the third quarter, first of the fourth quarter, we'll have a clear line of sight into that.

如同我們先前所說，我們在歐洲以API 2指數為基準、在動力煤市場銷售的大部分煤炭，都是在去年或前年透過遠期曲線合約、以該指數為基準賣出的。因此，我們對於提供給你們的2012年數字相當有信心。至於2013年現在還太早下定論，因為市場波動很大，動力煤與冶金煤之間的組合可能改變，亞洲也可能出現不同情況。所以到第三季末、第四季初，我們會對此有更清楚的能見度。

Got it. And then the second question has to do more with your met exports. When you look at the lower quality met grades, the high-vol Bs, even some of the PCI stuff, a lot of the central App guys are not able to get prices that cover their cash costs, given the weakness in those markets. Have you seen that manifest itself in export volumes? And again, how does that, when you think about your mix in terms of what you're exporting from a quality perspective on the met side, how exposed are you guys to the lower quality met coal grades versus some of the higher quality met coal grades, which will obviously find a home regardless of what the overall backdrop looks like?

了解。第二個問題比較關於你們的冶金煤出口。當你看較低品質的冶金煤等級，例如高揮發分B（high-vol B），甚至部分PCI產品，在這些市場疲弱的情況下，許多中阿帕拉契亞業者拿到的價格無法覆蓋其現金成本。你們是否看到這已反映在出口量上？另外，當你們從冶金煤出口的品質角度來看你們的組合時，相較於較高品質、無論整體環境如何都能找到買家的冶金煤等級，你們對較低品質冶金煤等級的曝險有多大？

Well, as I've said earlier, a lot of our export coal now is coming out of northern App as much as out of central App. And a fairly high quality is coming out of the lower Appalachians. So our exposure mainly is in the mid- and high vols.

嗯，如同我先前說過，我們現在很多出口煤炭來自北阿帕拉契亞（northern App），不亞於來自中阿帕拉契亞。而且下阿帕拉契亞（lower Appalachians）出產的品質相當高。所以我們的曝險主要在中揮發分與高揮發分。

Great. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

很好。非常感謝。感激。

And thank you. Our final question will come from Scott Group with Wolfe Trahan.

也謝謝你。我們最後一個問題來自Wolfe Trahan的Scott Group。

Good morning, Scott.

早安，Scott。

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Clarence, can you tell us what percent of the business is moving in association with one of the rail inflation indexes? I guess I'm just trying to understand, how much of the deceleration in yield growth is because inflation indexes are moderating and then how much could reaccelerate, assuming inflation reaccelerates?

謝謝。各位早安。Clarence，你能告訴我們有多少比例的業務是依附於某個鐵路通膨指數在變動嗎？我想了解的是，殖利率成長放緩有多少是因為通膨指數趨緩所致；以及在假設通膨再度加速的情況下，有多少可能重新加速？

I don't have a number that I could give you off the top of my head that's with a high -- you're talking about export now, or are you talking about all business?

我一時之間沒有一個可以很有把握直接告訴你的數字——你現在是指出口，還是指全部業務？

I'm just talking about what percent of the total business is based on either the RCAF or the [ALIF] or one of those inflation indexes that have moderated this year?

我指的是總業務中，有多少比例是以RCAF或[ALIF]或這類今年已趨緩的通膨指數為基礎？

It's probably 30%, in the range of 30%, 25%, 30%, is moving on the -- on one of those indices.

大概是30%，約在30%的區間，25%到30%，是依據——依據其中一個指數在調整。

So part of the deceleration in yield growth is just because inflation has moderated?

所以殖利率成長放緩的一部分原因，就是通膨已經趨緩？

That's correct.

沒錯。

Okay. And then on the coal side, when you talk about the export growth slowing, is that because the export steam coal is slowing, or are you expecting met to take another step down? And then overall with the coal business, if exports are moderating and utility domestically is stabilizing, do you expect overall coal volumes and yields to be better or worse in the second half or the first half?

好的。接著在煤炭方面，當你談到出口成長放緩時，這是因為出口動力煤放緩，還是你預期冶金煤會再下滑一個台階？另外，整體煤炭業務而言，如果出口趨於溫和、而國內公用事業端趨於穩定，你預期下半年相較上半年，整體煤炭運量與殖利率會更好還是更差？

I think I understand the question. Ask me that one more time, make sure I got it.

我想我理解你的問題。你再問我一次，讓我確認我有抓到重點。

Okay, sure. So I guess there was two parts to it. One is on the export side, are you expecting the utility exports to get worse or to slow or the met exports to take another step down? And then overall with coal with the moving parts, do you think that coal volumes and yields are better in second half or first half?

好的，當然。我想分成兩個部分。第一，在出口端，你們預期公用事業出口會變差或放緩，還是冶金煤出口會再下滑一個台階？第二，整體煤炭在這些變動因素下，你覺得下半年相較上半年，煤炭運量與殖利率會更好嗎？

Well, I would -- I expect the decline in the export will come from the met side of the business. Anything I told you for the second half right now on that question would be a pure guess, because you're going to have a mix coming in of the utility coal start to pick up, which will carry a higher RPU. You'll have the impact in the export of some of the met going down and the thermal staying the same. So I'm just unclear of what to tell you, to be honest with you.

嗯，我會——我預期出口下滑會來自冶金煤這一塊業務。至於你問下半年，現在我若告訴你任何答案都只是純猜測，因為你會看到公用事業用煤開始回升、而那會帶來較高的每單位收入（RPU）。同時出口端會受到部分冶金煤下滑、而動力煤維持不變的影響。所以老實說，我不太確定該怎麼回答你。

Would you say coal yields are positive or negative in the back half of the year?

你會說今年下半年煤炭殖利率是正向還是負向？

I think they -- I don't know. I'm unclear on that. But look, if I had to make a bet, I would feel positive about what coal looks like in the second half.

我覺得——我不知道。我不太確定。但你看，如果一定要我押注，我會對下半年煤炭的情況抱持正面看法。

Fair enough. Thanks for the time, guys. Appreciate it.

可以理解。謝謝各位的時間。感激。

Thank you, Scott. Thank you, everybody, for your attention and your time today.

謝謝你，Scott。也謝謝各位今天的關注與時間。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。各位可以掛線。