CSX Corporation (CSX) 2011 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation fourth-quarter 2011 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call all participants will be in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2011 年第四季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將會錄音。本次會議期間，所有與會者將以僅收聽模式參與。(接線員指示)

For opening remarks and introduction I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話會議交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone. And again, welcome to CSX Corporation's fourth-quarter 2011 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we will be reviewing this morning, along with our Quarterly Financial Report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the investors section. In addition, following the presentation, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on the same website.

謝謝你，Pat，各位早安。再次歡迎各位參加 CSX Corporation 2011 年第四季財報簡報。我們今天早上將要檢視的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可在 CSX.com 的投資人專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，同一網站也將提供網路直播與播客的重播。

Here representing CSX this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Cindy Sanborn, Chief Transportation Officer; and Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer.

今天早上代表 CSX 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；運輸長 Cindy Sanborn；以及營運長 Oscar Munoz。

Now, before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and the other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements and risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報以及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露事項。該揭露說明了前瞻性陳述，以及可能導致實際表現與這些陳述所預期結果出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With nearly 30 analysts now covering CSX, I would ask as a courtesy for everyone to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question.

另外也提醒各位，簡報結束後，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。目前約有近 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，為了禮貌起見，請各位將提問限制為一個主要問題與一個追問。

With that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

接下來，我把簡報交給 CSX 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Well, thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Last evening we were pleased to report record earnings per share for the fourth quarter and full year 2011. Fourth-quarter EPS was up 13% to a new fourth-quarter record of $0.43 per share. These results were driven by top-line growth reflecting strong core pricing and fuel recovery as well as an excellent service product.

謝謝你，David，各位早安。昨晚我們很高興公布 2011 年第四季與全年每股盈餘創下新高。第四季每股盈餘（EPS）成長 13%，達到每股 0.43 美元，創下第四季新紀錄。這些成果主要來自營收成長，反映核心定價強勁、燃油回收增加，以及優異的服務產品。

Service measures are now at high levels thanks to the outstanding execution of our operating team and the resource investments we made in the second half of the year. We expect service levels to remain high going forward.

在營運團隊出色的執行力，以及我們在下半年所投入的資源投資帶動下，服務指標目前維持在高水準。我們預期未來服務水準將持續維持高檔。

Turning to slide 5, for the full-year 2011, CSX generated record performance in operating income, operating ratio, and earnings per share. In addition, we strategically positioned the Company for long-term growth and set the stage for our 65% operating ratio target.

請看第 5 頁，2011 全年 CSX 在營業利益、營業比率與每股盈餘方面皆創下紀錄。此外，我們也策略性地為公司長期成長做好定位，並為達成 65% 營業比率目標奠定基礎。

Yesterday, as you know, CSX announced changes to its senior management team. Oscar Munoz is now the Company's Chief Operating Officer, and Fredrik Eliasson is now our Chief Financial Officer. Both are proven leaders with a passion for driving compelling value for shareholders and customers.

如各位所知，昨天 CSX 宣布了高階管理團隊的變動。Oscar Munoz 現任公司營運長（COO），Fredrik Eliasson 現任財務長（CFO）。兩位都是經驗證的領導者，致力於為股東與客戶創造具吸引力的價值。

We have excellent momentum in our operations; and combined with Oscar's broad leadership and business focus, we will ensure that outstanding team is even more successful for you, our shareholders. Fredrik is a proven and respected veteran in our Company and will be working with a finance team that has proven itself to be a strong business partner in helping drive excellent performance for investors.

我們的營運動能非常強；再加上 Oscar 廣泛的領導力與商業聚焦，我們將確保這支卓越團隊能為各位股東帶來更大的成功。Fredrik 是公司內備受肯定且值得尊敬的資深主管，將與一支已證明能作為強力商業夥伴的財務團隊合作，協助推動為投資人帶來優異表現。

For today, I have asked Oscar to take you through the financials for the last time. And Cindy Sanborn, our Chief Transportation Officer, is here to report our operating performance. With that, let me turn the presentation over to Clarence to review our top-line performance. Clarence?

今天，我請 Oscar 最後一次帶各位檢視財務數據。而我們的運輸長 Cindy Sanborn 也在場，將報告營運表現。接下來，我把簡報交給 Clarence，請他回顧我們的營收表現。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. As I get started on slide 7 let me remind everyone that the fourth quarter of 2010 included an extra week. After removing that extra week, you can see more comparable 2010 fourth-quarter results with revenue of $2.6 billion, volume of 1.6 million units, and revenue per unit of $1,655.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。在我開始講第 7 頁之前，先提醒各位，2010 年第四季多了一週。扣除那多出的一週後，各位可以看到更具可比性的 2010 年第四季結果：營收 26 億美元、運量 160 萬單位、每單位營收 1,655 美元。

In the fourth quarter of 2011, total revenue increased 12%, volume grew 1%, and RPU improved 10% versus the comparable 2010 results. For the remainder of my presentation I will use comparable 13-week numbers to give you a better sense of the run rate of our business.

2011 年第四季，總營收成長 12%，運量成長 1%，相較於可比的 2010 年結果，每單位營收（RPU）提升 10%。在接下來的簡報中，我將使用可比的 13 週數據，讓各位更清楚了解我們業務的運行速度（run rate）。

Now, let's turn to the next slide and take a closer look at the results. On a comparable basis, CSX revenue increased 12% to nearly $3 billion in the fourth quarter. As you can see on the chart, volume gains drove $51 million in year-over-year revenue growth.

接著請看下一頁，更仔細檢視結果。以可比基礎計算，CSX 第四季營收成長 12%，接近 30 億美元。如圖表所示，運量增加帶動年增營收成長 5,100 萬美元。

In addition, the combined effect of rate and mix accounted for $138 million of the increase, reflecting yield gains across all three major markets as we continue to sell the compelling value of rail transportation. Finally, as you look further to the right, increased fuel recovery of $117 million in the quarter helped offset the impact of higher fuel cost.

此外，運價與組合的綜合影響貢獻了 1.38 億美元的增幅，反映我們持續推廣鐵路運輸的價值主張，並在三大主要市場皆取得收益率提升。最後，往右看，季度燃油回收增加 1.17 億美元，有助於抵銷燃油成本上升的影響。

The next slide shows the volume drivers in the quarter. Total volume increased 1% versus the comparable period from last year. Merchandise, which accounted for 41% of total volume, grew 5% reflecting gains in the majority of the markets CSX serves.

下一頁顯示本季運量的驅動因素。總運量較去年同期可比期間增加 1%。一般貨運（Merchandise）占總運量 41%，成長 5%，反映 CSX 服務的大多數市場皆有成長。

Intermodal, which accounted for 36% of total volume, was flat. The strong domestic growth was offset by weakness in the international business.

聯運（Intermodal）占總運量 36%，持平。國內業務的強勁成長被國際業務的疲弱所抵銷。

Finally, coal, which accounts for 23% of the total volume, declined 3% reflecting strength in exports. That was more than offset by continued softness in demand from electric utilities. I will provide more detail on each of these markets after we look at the revenue per unit on slide 10.

最後，煤炭占總運量 23%，下滑 3%，其中出口表現強勁。但電力公用事業需求持續疲弱，抵銷了出口的強勢。在我們看完第 10 頁的每單位營收後，我會針對這些市場逐一提供更多細節。

Revenue per unit increased 10% to more than $1,800, driven by a combination of price, mix, and fuel recovery. Same-store sales pricing increased 6.9%. Recall that the same-store sales are defined as shipments with the same customer, commodity, and car type and the same origin and destination. These shipments represent approximately 75% of the CSX traffic base. Mix also had a modest favorable impact on the revenue per unit change.

每單位營收成長 10%，提升至 1,800 美元以上，主要由價格、組合與燃油回收共同帶動。同店銷售定價（same-store sales pricing）成長 6.9%。請回想，同店銷售的定義為：同一客戶、同一商品與車種，且起訖點相同的運輸。這些運輸約占 CSX 交通量基礎的 75%。組合因素也對每單位營收變動帶來小幅正面影響。

Finally, increased fuel recovery, a result of higher fuel costs in the quarter, contributed to higher revenue per unit.

最後，由於本季燃油成本較高而帶動燃油回收增加，也促使每單位營收上升。

Now, let's take a look at each of the major markets that we serve, starting with coal. Coal revenue improved 13% driven by an increase in revenue per unit reflecting improved yield and higher fuel recovery.

現在，我們來看看我們服務的各主要市場，先從煤炭開始。煤炭營收成長 13%，主要由每單位營收增加所帶動，反映收益率改善與燃油回收提高。

Domestic volume declined 10% on a comparable basis as overall electrical generation declined in the eastern United States and natural gas prices remained at low levels, leading to the continued displacement of coal at some utilities. Export coal volume grew 31% on a comparable basis as demand was strong for US coal shipments to Europe, Asia, and South America.

以可比基礎計算，國內運量下滑 10%，原因是美國東部整體發電量下降，且天然氣價格維持在低檔，導致部分公用事業持續以天然氣取代煤炭。以可比基礎計算，出口煤運量成長 31%，因歐洲、亞洲與南美對美國煤炭出貨需求強勁。

For the full year, we shipped a total of 40.2 million tons of export coal, up 33% versus 2010 and within our earlier guidance. Looking ahead, demand for export coal should remain strong on the strength of an expanding global economy, especially in Asia and South America. At the same time, domestic utility volumes are expected to remain soft due to the low natural gas prices, above-normal inventory levels in the southeast, and restrictive environmental regulations.

全年而言，我們出口煤炭總出貨量為4,020萬噸，較2010年成長33%，並符合我們先前的指引。展望未來，受全球經濟擴張帶動，出口煤炭需求應可維持強勁，尤其是在亞洲與南美洲。同時，由於天然氣價格偏低、東南部庫存水位高於常態，以及更嚴格的環保法規，預期國內公用事業用煤量仍將疲弱。

Now, let's turn to our Intermodal results. Intermodal fourth-quarter revenue increased 13% versus 2010 to $375 million driven by an increase in revenue per unit.

現在，讓我們來看聯運（Intermodal）業務的表現。聯運第四季營收較2010年增加13%至3.75億美元，主要由每單位營收提升所帶動。

Domestic volumes were up 5% as the overall truck market remains tight and higher fuel prices encouraged over-the-road conversions. International volume declined 6% largely due to a more moderate peak shipping season this year.

國內運量成長5%，因整體卡車市場仍然吃緊，且燃油價格上升促使更多長途公路運輸轉換至鐵路。國際運量下滑6%，主要因今年旺季出貨季節較為溫和。

Turning to revenue per unit, Intermodal had higher fuel recoveries and increased yields in both sectors, resulting in a 14% improvement versus the prior year. In 2012, we are seeing strong growth from the onboarding of Maersk. In addition, we anticipate growth from continued truck [conversions], new service offerings, and further economic expansion. Strategic investments such as our Northwest Ohio Intermodal facility and the National Gateway Initiative will continue to support long-term growth by increasing capacity while improving both transit times and service reliability.

就每單位營收而言，聯運在燃油附加費回收提高，且兩個領域的收益率（yield）均上升，使其較前一年改善14%。2012年，我們因導入馬士基（Maersk）業務而看到強勁成長。此外，我們預期持續的卡車[轉換]、新的服務方案，以及進一步的經濟擴張將帶來成長。例如西北俄亥俄聯運設施與National Gateway Initiative等策略性投資，將透過提升運能並改善運輸時間與服務可靠性，持續支撐長期成長。

Turning to the next slide, let's look our merchandise markets. Overall, merchandise revenue increased 11% driven by 5% volume growth and a 5% increase in revenue per unit. Revenue per unit increased across nearly all of our markets due to higher yields and higher fuel recovery.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我們看看我們的商品（merchandise）市場。整體而言，商品營收增加11%，主要由運量成長5%以及每單位營收增加5%所帶動。由於收益率提高與燃油回收增加，我們幾乎所有市場的每單位營收皆有所提升。

In the agricultural sector volume increased in the quarter as growth in fertilizer and ethanol shipments offset declines in feed grain resulting from higher corn prices and lower production of poultry and pork. Metals and automotive shipments were key drivers of growth in the industrial sector. North American light vehicle production grew by 13% in the quarter.

在農業領域，本季運量增加，因肥料與乙醇出貨成長抵銷了飼料穀物的下滑；飼料穀物下滑係因玉米價格較高，以及家禽與豬隻產量下降所致。金屬與汽車出貨是工業領域成長的關鍵驅動因素。北美輕型車產量在本季成長13%。

In addition, domestic steel production remained high due to strong demand from the automotive and the oil and gas markets. Construction sector growth was led by increased aggregate shipments as milder weather in the quarter contributed to a longer construction season. Looking forward, we expect continued growth in our agricultural and industrial sectors, although construction shipments will be challenged by the lower levels of highway investment in 2012.

此外，受汽車以及油氣市場強勁需求帶動，國內鋼鐵產量仍維持高檔。建築領域的成長主要來自骨材出貨增加，因本季天候較為溫和，使施工季節延長。展望未來，我們預期農業與工業領域將持續成長，但由於2012年公路投資水準較低，建築相關出貨將面臨挑戰。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. Looking ahead, CSX's outlook for 2012 is favorable, with growth expected across all markets; and we expect CSX's overall rate of growth will again exceed that of the general economy. Intermodal will lead the way as we onboard the Maersk business, grow with our other international customers, and continue to attract domestic loads from the highway in partnership with our truckload customers. We expect strong demand from phosphate and fertilizer with the USDA's projection for planted acreage at high levels. Projected strength in harvest levels and new ethanol terminals on CSX will drive growth in agricultural products.

現在讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。展望未來，CSX對2012年的展望正面，預期各市場皆將成長；且我們預期CSX整體成長率將再次超越整體經濟。聯運將領先帶動成長，因我們將導入馬士基業務、與其他國際客戶共同成長，並與整車運輸（truckload）客戶合作，持續吸引國內貨載由公路轉至鐵路。在美國農業部（USDA）預估播種面積維持高檔的情況下，我們預期磷酸鹽與肥料需求強勁。預期收成水準強勁，以及CSX新增乙醇終端設施，將帶動農產品成長。

In chemicals, we anticipate growth in the overall chemical production. Oil and gas related markets will drive additional growth as our frac sand business continues to expand and we develop new products to deliver crude to eastern refineries by rail. Continued demand from the oil and gas and automotive industries will drive further expansion of steel production and scrap demand and drive growth in our metals business.

在化學品方面，我們預期整體化學品產量將成長。油氣相關市場將帶來額外成長，因我們的壓裂砂（frac sand）業務持續擴張，且我們正開發新產品，以鐵路將原油運送至東部煉油廠。油氣與汽車產業的持續需求，將推動鋼鐵產量與廢鋼需求進一步擴張，並帶動我們金屬業務成長。

We expect export coal demand to remain at high levels, although challenges remain in the domestic utility market due to the low natural gas prices and restrictive environmental regulations. Overall, we expect coal volumes to be down modestly.

我們預期出口煤炭需求將維持高檔，但由於天然氣價格偏低與更嚴格的環保法規，國內公用事業市場仍面臨挑戰。整體而言，我們預期煤炭運量將小幅下滑。

Our emerging markets business, which includes aggregates used in concrete production, will also be challenged as a result of lower levels of highway investment. Bottom line, we expect solid growth across a significant majority of CSX's markets, with 71% of our overall volume reflecting favorable market conditions.

我們的新興市場業務（包括用於混凝土生產的骨材）也將因公路投資水準較低而面臨挑戰。總結來說，我們預期CSX絕大多數市場將呈現穩健成長，且我們整體運量中有71%反映有利的市場條件。

Thank you. Now let me turn the presentation over to Cindy to review our operating results.

謝謝。現在我把簡報交給Cindy，請她回顧我們的營運結果。

Thank you, Clarence, and good morning, everyone. Our fourth-quarter results are a clear reflection of our success and commitment to delivering excellent performance.

謝謝你，Clarence，各位早安。我們第四季的結果清楚反映了我們的成功，以及我們致力於交付卓越績效的承諾。

Looking at safety, CSX once again delivered strong performance, reflecting the fact that safety continues to be a top priority. At the same time, CSX is poised to handle 2012 volume growth given the employee and locomotive resource investments made in the latter half of 2011.

在安全方面，CSX再次展現強勁表現，反映安全仍是最優先事項。同時，鑑於我們在2011年下半年對員工與機車資源所做的投資，CSX已準備好因應2012年的運量成長。

With these resources we expect to be able to handle much of CSX's volume growth this year within the existing train network. As a result, we are confident that operating leverage will return in 2012.

憑藉這些資源，我們預期今年CSX多數的運量成長可在既有列車網路內消化。因此，我們有信心營運槓桿將在2012年回復。

These resources also increase reliability and fluidity across all three networks -- coal, intermodal, and merchandise. As a result, overall service was sustained at a high level this quarter.

這些資源也提升了三大網路——煤炭、聯運與商品——的可靠性與流暢度。因此，本季整體服務維持在高水準。

Now, let's review the results in more detail, starting with safety on slide 17. This slide shows both fourth-quarter and full-year FRA personal injury and train accident rates over the last four years. On the left-hand side of the slide, you can see that personal injury results improved for both the fourth quarter and the full year.

現在，讓我們從第17頁投影片的安全表現開始，更詳細地檢視結果。此投影片顯示過去四年第四季與全年FRA人身傷害與列車事故率。在投影片左側，你可以看到人身傷害結果在第四季與全年皆有所改善。

For the fourth quarter, the personal injury rate improved 10% to 0.93. For the full year, the frequency improved 10% to a rate of 0.91.

第四季的人身傷害率改善10%至0.93。全年而言，發生頻率改善10%至0.91。

Looking at train accidents on the right, the quarterly frequency increased slightly to 2.40, while the full-year measure improved 14% to 2.32. Looking ahead, we remain committed to our goal of zero injuries and accidents.

在右側的列車事故方面，季度發生頻率小幅上升至2.40，而全年指標改善14%至2.32。展望未來，我們仍致力於達成零傷害、零事故的目標。

Now, let's turn to the next slide and review the operating performance. Here you can see CSX's key service measures improved significantly in the quarter and are now at high levels. On the left-hand side of the slide, on-time originations improved to 82% and on-time arrivals improved to 72%.

現在，讓我們看下一張投影片並回顧營運績效。在此你可以看到，CSX的關鍵服務指標在本季顯著改善，且目前處於高水準。在投影片左側，準時發車率提升至82%，準時到達率提升至72%。

Looking to the right, overall train velocity increased to 21.7 miles per hour, and dwell improved modestly, both contributing to the increase in on-time performance. We are pleased to see this level of performance and expect service levels to remain high going forward.

在右側，整體列車速度提升至每小時21.7英里，停留時間（dwell）亦小幅改善，兩者皆促成準點表現提升。我們樂見此一績效水準，並預期未來服務水準將維持高檔。

As we move to the next few slides let me give you a more detailed view of performance for each of these networks, starting with coal. On the left hand of the slide you can see CSX's extensive network of coal receiving facilities along with full-year 2011 traffic flows.

接下來幾張投影片，我將更詳細說明各網路的績效，先從煤炭開始。在投影片左側，你可以看到CSX廣泛的煤炭接收設施網路，以及2011年全年運量流向。

The coal network operated well in the fourth quarter as reflected in the key measures highlighted on the top right-hand side of the slide. During the fourth quarter, coal velocity improved to 17.4 miles per hour. This is a record in fourth-quarter coal train velocity.

煤炭網路在第四季運作良好，反映在投影片右上方所強調的關鍵指標。第四季期間，煤炭列車速度提升至每小時17.4英里。這是第四季煤炭列車速度的紀錄新高。

Also, train length increased to 105 cars per train. This increase in efficiency translates to adding nearly 200,000 tons of incremental coal with the existing level of resources.

此外，每列列車長度增加至105節車廂。此一效率提升，意味著在既有資源水準下可新增近20萬噸的增量煤炭運量。

As Clarence indicated, domestic coal shipments were down in the quarter. As a result, some of the resources devoted to this business were redeployed throughout the system to support service and growth in other markets, including our export coal market, where we handled over 10.4 million tons of coal in the quarter.

如Clarence所指出，本季國內煤炭出貨下滑。因此，部分投入此業務的資源已在整個系統內重新調度，以支援其他市場的服務與成長，包括我們的出口煤炭市場；本季我們在該市場處理的煤炭超過1,040萬噸。

Moving to slide 20, let's take a look at the intermodal network. On the map to the left you can see CSX's Intermodal Terminal network, including the state-of-the-art Northwest Ohio Intermodal Terminal and the 2011 intermodal traffic flows.

接著看第20頁投影片，讓我們來看看聯運網路。在左側的地圖上，您可以看到 CSX 的聯運終端網路，包括最先進的俄亥俄州西北部聯運終端，以及 2011 年的聯運貨運流向。

The intermodal network also operated well in the fourth quarter, with velocity of the overall network improving slightly over 2010 while availability of the intermodal expedited service on CSX remained at extremely high levels. This operational improvement was partially driven by efficiencies gained with the Northwest Ohio terminal, as streamlined routing of intermodal traffic led to shorter transit times.

聯運網路在第四季的運作也相當良好，整體網路的運行速度較 2010 年略有改善，同時 CSX 的聯運快速服務可用性仍維持在極高水準。這項營運改善部分來自俄亥俄州西北部終端所帶來的效率提升，因為聯運貨運的路由更精簡，導致運輸時間縮短。

As Clarence mentioned, the onboarding of the new Maersk business began over the last three weeks and is going well with no service issues. On the map you can see the key lanes the Maersk traffic will utilize represented by the red arrows.

如 Clarence 所提到的，新 Maersk 業務的導入在過去三週開始進行，進展順利，且沒有任何服務問題。在地圖上，您可以看到 Maersk 貨量將使用的主要路線，以紅色箭頭表示。

At the same time, the efficiencies of Northwest Ohio have translated into strong service offerings for all of our customers, including Maersk. During the first week of 2012, we operated our first run-through international train from Los Angeles to the Ohio Valley in conjunction with one of our Western interline partners. This train avoided delays in Chicago, running directly to the Northwest Ohio terminal and effectively connecting CSX's network of terminals in the Ohio Valley.

同時，俄亥俄州西北部的效率也轉化為對所有客戶（包括 Maersk）具競爭力的強勁服務方案。在 2012 年第一週，我們與一家西部聯運合作夥伴共同營運了首班從洛杉磯直達俄亥俄河谷的國際直通列車。這班列車避開了芝加哥的延誤，直接行駛至俄亥俄州西北部終端，並有效串聯 CSX 在俄亥俄河谷的終端網路。

This strong service product allowed the train to reach its destination before it typically would have even cleared the Chicago Interchange, an improvement of one to two days in transit time. Service reliability like this is allowing us to grow by meeting the needs and expectations of our customers. As we look ahead into 2012, we have a strong terminal network and adequate capacity on our train network to absorb much of our intermodal volume growth.

這項強勁的服務產品使列車在通常甚至尚未完成芝加哥交接（Interchange）前就已抵達目的地，運輸時間縮短了一到兩天。如此的服務可靠性讓我們能透過滿足客戶需求與期望來推動成長。展望 2012 年，我們擁有強健的終端網路，以及列車網路中足夠的運能，可吸收我們聯運貨量成長的大部分。

Looking to slide 21, let's now look at the merchandise network. Here you can see CSX's merchandise network, which utilizes much of the system. CSX's largest terminals are indicated on the map along with the 2011 traffic flows.

接著看第21頁投影片，現在來看看一般貨運（merchandise）網路。在這裡您可以看到 CSX 的一般貨運網路，該網路使用了系統中的大部分路線。地圖上標示了 CSX 最大的終端，以及 2011 年的貨運流向。

This network benefited by operational improvements in velocity and terminal dwell. This quarter's velocity is the best we have seen since the fourth quarter of 2009 despite carrying 10% more in merchandise carloads.

該網路受惠於運行速度與終端停留時間（terminal dwell）的營運改善。儘管一般貨運車皮量增加了 10%，本季的運行速度仍是自 2009 年第四季以來最佳表現。

These improvements allowed the merchandise network to handle higher volumes while at the same time maintaining a high level of reliability. Going forward, we expect service levels to remain high and to absorb much of 2012's volume growth within the current train network without adding resources.

這些改善使一般貨運網路能在維持高度可靠性的同時處理更高的運量。展望未來，我們預期服務水準將維持高檔，並在不增加資源的情況下，於現有列車網路內吸收 2012 年運量成長的大部分。

Now, let's turn to the next slide and review resource levels. While active train and engine employees and locomotives have increased during the quarter, both remain below 2008 levels. As the chart on the left shows, CSX continued to hire additional train and engine employees in 2011 to both improve service and handle volume growth.

現在，讓我們看下一頁投影片並檢視資源水準。雖然本季在職列車與機車員工以及機車數量都有所增加，但兩者仍低於 2008 年水準。如左側圖表所示，CSX 在 2011 年持續增聘列車與機車員工，以同時提升服務並因應運量成長。

It also highlights the fact that despite these increases, active T&E headcount is still down 12% from 2008 levels, with volume down only 5%. This reflects our commitment of providing a high level of service while continuing to deliver sustained productivity.

這也凸顯出一個事實：儘管有所增加，在職列車與機車（T&E）人數仍較 2008 年下降 12%，而運量僅下降 5%。這反映出我們在提供高水準服務的同時，仍持續交付穩健生產力的承諾。

Looking to the right side of the page, this chart highlights the sequential increase in locomotives by quarter. It also shows that despite these increases, active locomotives also remain below 2008 levels.

看右側，這張圖表突顯了機車數量按季的連續增加。同時也顯示，儘管有所增加，在職機車數仍低於 2008 年水準。

Going forward, it is important to remember that CSX continues to have the flexibility to both adjust the hiring pipeline and manage locomotives to meet changes as service, volume, or attrition dictates.

展望未來，重要的是要記住，CSX 仍具備彈性，可依服務、運量或人員流失（attrition）的變化，同時調整招募管道並管理機車配置。

Now, let's look at productivity on the next slide. Slide 23 shows annual year-over-year operations productivity savings. Since 2004, CSX has generated nearly $1.2 billion in productivity savings, which has helped to offset a significant portion of CSX's non-fuels inflation and drive operating ratio improvement.

現在，讓我們看下一頁投影片的生產力。第23頁投影片顯示年度同比的營運生產力節省。自 2004 年以來，CSX 已創造近 12 億美元的生產力節省，這有助於抵銷 CSX 非燃料通膨的相當一部分，並推動營運比率改善。

In 2011, productivity results fell short of historical levels as resources were ramped up to aid service reliability. Moving forward, CSX is now in a position to handle improving volumes without significant resource additions, creating sustained operating leverage.

2011 年的生產力成果低於歷史水準，因為我們增加資源以協助提升服務可靠性。展望未來，CSX 現在已具備在不大幅增加資源的情況下因應運量改善的能力，從而創造持續的營運槓桿。

As such, our productivity pipeline for 2012 is full, and CSX is well positioned to deliver $130 million in savings. Our goal is always to attain our productivity target while at the same time maintaining high levels of service, and we intend to do that in 2012.

因此，我們 2012 年的生產力專案儲備充足，CSX 也具備良好條件可實現 1.3 億美元的節省。我們的目標一向是在維持高水準服務的同時達成生產力目標，而我們打算在 2012 年做到這一點。

Now, let's wrap up on the next slide. Looking forward, CSX will build on its strong safety performance with a focus on continuous improvement in both personal injury and train accident rates.

現在，讓我們在下一頁投影片做個總結。展望未來，CSX 將在強勁的安全績效基礎上持續精進，並聚焦於人身傷害率與列車事故率的持續改善。

Network performance was high in the quarter. Key measures have improved and are now at high levels. This performance demonstrates that we are committed to providing a service product that meets the standard customers have come to expect from CSX.

本季網路績效維持高檔。關鍵指標已有所改善，且目前處於高水準。這樣的表現證明我們致力於提供符合客戶對 CSX 既有期待標準的服務產品。

Additionally, resources are in place and flexibility remains to handle changes in attrition, peak volume, and growth. Bottom line, CSX employees are committed to providing the high levels of service customers expect, and in doing so will deliver a strong foundation for their success and that of our shareholders. Now, let me turn the presentation over to Oscar to review the financials.

此外，資源已到位，且仍保有彈性以因應人員流失、尖峰運量與成長的變化。歸根結底，CSX 員工致力於提供客戶所期待的高水準服務，並藉此為客戶的成功以及我們股東的成功奠定堅實基礎。現在，讓我把簡報交給 Oscar 來檢視財務。

Thank you, Cindy. If I could, let me again remind everyone that our fourth-quarter results in 2010 included an extra week associated with the Company's fiscal reporting calendar. And while Clarence reviewed the quarterly volume and revenue results on that comparable basis, 13 weeks, I will present our consolidated financial results on more of a GAAP basis, which includes the impact of the extra week in 2010; and we won't have to worry about this for another six to seven years.

謝謝你，Cindy。如果可以的話，我想再次提醒各位，我們 2010 年第四季的結果包含公司會計報導日曆所帶來的額外一週。雖然 Clarence 已以可比基礎（13 週）檢視季度運量與營收結果，但我將以較偏向 GAAP 的基礎呈現我們的合併財務結果，其中包含 2010 年額外一週的影響；而且我們在未來六到七年內都不必再為此煩惱。

Okay, in the fourth quarter, CSX continued to achieve strong top-line growth and has followed a disciplined approach of investing in resources to support improved customer service. If you look at the top of this slide, revenue improved 5% to nearly $3 billion on strong core pricing and the impact of higher fuel recovery. Operating income was $841 million in the quarter, a modest decline from the record fourth quarter of 2010, which as I mentioned earlier includes the impact of an additional week.

好的，在第四季，CSX 持續實現強勁的營收成長，並以嚴謹的方式投資資源以支援客戶服務改善。如果您看這張投影片的上方，營收在強勁的核心定價以及較高燃油回收影響下，成長 5% 至接近 30 億美元。本季營業利益為 8.41 億美元，較 2010 年創紀錄的第四季小幅下滑；如我先前提到的，2010 年包含額外一週的影響。

If we look below the line, interest expense was down $9 million due to the impact of last year's extra week, and other income was up $7 million, the details of which are available in that Quarterly Financial Report.

如果我們看營業利益以下的項目，利息費用因去年額外一週的影響而減少 900 萬美元，而其他收入增加 700 萬美元；其細節可在該份季度財務報告中查閱。

Additionally, income taxes were $255 million in the quarter for a tax rate of 35.8%. This primarily reflects a favorable state income tax impact in the quarter. Going forward, we can continue to expect a normalized tax rate of 38%.

此外，本季所得稅為 2.55 億美元，稅率為 35.8%。這主要反映本季州所得稅的有利影響。展望未來，我們仍可預期常態化稅率為 38%。

Finally, EPS was $0.43, an improvement of 13%.

最後，每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.43 美元，提升 13%。

Turning to the next slide, let's begin to discuss expenses in more detail. Labor and fringe expense was essentially flat versus last year, up just $3 million.

接著看下一頁投影片，讓我們開始更詳細地討論費用。勞務與附加福利費用與去年相比基本持平，僅增加 300 萬美元。

The impact of wage and healthcare inflation in this quarter was $28 million or about 4%. In 2012, we expect that labor inflation will moderate and average approximately $15 million per quarter.

本季薪資與醫療保健通膨的影響為 2,800 萬美元，約為 4%。在 2012 年，我們預期勞務通膨將趨緩，平均每季約 1,500 萬美元。

Turning to the chart on the left, headcount this quarter was up 6% as we have been adding resources over the course of the year. Now, about half of this year-over-year change supports the improving levels of service; another quarter or so represents employees in training to help offset attrition and meet the peak demand levels that we will see in 2012; and the remaining quarter are field engineering forces for PTC and ongoing capital projects. This last group of employees, as you know, does not have a direct operating expense impact.

轉到左側的圖表，本季員工人數增加了6%，因為我們在今年期間持續增補資源。目前，這項年增變動約有一半用於支援服務水準的改善；另外約四分之一代表正在受訓的員工，以協助抵消人員流失並滿足我們在2012年將看到的尖峰需求水準；其餘四分之一則為PTC與持續資本專案的現場工程人力。如各位所知，最後這一組員工不會對營運費用產生直接影響。

Now, looking at the first quarter, headcount should increase less than 1% sequentially. This will reflect the additions -- reflecting the additions we have made to the workforce. Training-related costs were up $9 million in the quarter. Partially offsetting these items was $22 million of lower incentive compensation and $12 million primarily associated with lower volume due to the extra week in 2010.

接著看第一季，員工人數按季增幅應低於1%。這將反映——反映我們已對人力所做的增補。本季與訓練相關的成本增加了900萬美元。部分抵消上述項目的是：激勵性薪酬減少2,200萬美元，以及主要因2010年多出一週而導致運量較低所帶來的1,200萬美元影響。

Turning to slide 28, MS&O expense increased 17% or $84 million versus last year. Looking at the table to the right, inflation was $11 million. Next, casualty reserves were $41 million higher primarily driven by last year's $40 million favorable reserve adjustment.

轉到第28頁投影片，MS&O費用較去年增加17%，或8,400萬美元。看右側表格，通膨影響為1,100萬美元。接著，意外損失準備金增加4,100萬美元，主要是因去年有4,000萬美元的有利準備金調整。

Volume-related expenses increased $13 million in the quarter reflecting costs related to our growing export coal and domestic intermodal business. As you round out the table, Other costs increased by $19 million this quarter.

與運量相關的費用本季增加1,300萬美元，反映我們成長中的出口煤與國內聯運業務所帶來的成本。表格最後，其他成本本季增加1,900萬美元。

On the next slide, let's discuss the impact of fuel. Total fuel cost increased 22% or $77 million versus last year. Looking at the chart on the left, CSX's average cost per gallon for locomotive fuel climbed to $3.05, an increase of 26%. This increase in fuel price accounted for $81 million of higher expense, as seen in the table on the right.

下一頁投影片，我們來討論燃料的影響。燃料總成本較去年增加22%，或7,700萬美元。看左側圖表，CSX機車燃料每加侖平均成本升至3.05美元，增加26%。如右側表格所示，燃料價格上升帶來8,100萬美元的費用增加。

Next, slightly lower fuel efficiency drove $6 million of increased cost. Volume-related savings were $16 million versus last year; and rounding out the table, non-locomotive fuel increased by an additional $6 million.

接著，燃油效率略為下降，導致成本增加600萬美元。與運量相關的節省較去年為1,600萬美元；而表格最後，非機車用燃料另外增加600萬美元。

Now on the next slide, we'll round out the fourth-quarter expense review. Beginning with depreciation, these costs were down 8% or $21 million. While we saw the ongoing impact of a net increase in our asset base, this was offset by an extra week of depreciation expense last year and a favorable adjustment related to asset retirement. Going forward, you can expect depreciation to range between $260 million and $270 million a quarter in 2012, increasing throughout the year.

下一頁投影片，我們將完成第四季費用回顧。先從折舊開始，這些成本下降8%，或2,100萬美元。雖然我們看到資產基礎淨增加的持續影響，但去年多出一週的折舊費用，以及與資產除役相關的有利調整，抵消了這項影響。展望未來，2012年每季折舊預期介於2.60億至2.70億美元之間，並將在全年逐步增加。

Moving to rent, expenses decreased 3% or $3 million reflecting efficiency in the auto and merchandise networks. That concludes the detailed expense review for the fourth quarter.

再看租賃費用，下降3%或300萬美元，反映汽車與商品網路的效率提升。以上為第四季費用的詳細回顧。

Let's turn to full-year results on slide 31. On a full-year basis, revenue was up 10% to a record $11.7 billion, of course reflecting the impact of profitable volume growth, pricing above inflation, and higher fuel recoveries.

我們轉到第31頁投影片看全年結果。以全年計，營收成長10%至創紀錄的117億美元，當然反映了具獲利性的運量成長、高於通膨的定價，以及較高的燃料回收。

Total expense for the year was also up 10%, with the biggest single driver being the increase in fuel price. Excluding fuel, total costs were up 5% versus last year.

全年總費用同樣增加10%，其中最大單一驅動因素是燃料價格上升。若排除燃料，總成本較去年增加5%。

Full-year operating income was up 11% off a base that includes an extra week for a full-year operating ratio of 70.9%. As a reminder, while CSX has an effective fuel recovery program, higher fuel costs are recovered with an operating ratio of approximately 100%. When you adjust for this higher fuel price, CSX's full-year operating ratio in 2011 would have been 69.8%.

全年營業利益在包含多出一週的基期下成長11%，全年營業比率為70.9%。提醒各位，雖然CSX有有效的燃料回收機制，但較高的燃料成本是以約100%的營業比率回收。若就較高燃料價格進行調整，CSX 2011年全年營業比率將為69.8%。

Finally, earnings per share increased 24% due to strong core results and the impact of the share repurchase program.

最後，由於核心業績強勁以及庫藏股回購計畫的影響，每股盈餘成長24%。

Now, as we move to the next slide, let's take a moment and just step back and reflect on the progress that we have made over the course of the year. As you look on that chart on the left, those solid blue bars represent total reported non-fuel expense by quarter in 2011. As you can see, costs have increased throughout the year; but those increases have been relatively modest on a sequential basis.

接著到下一頁投影片，我們花點時間退一步回顧今年以來所取得的進展。看左側圖表，深藍色長條代表2011年各季揭露的非燃料總費用。如各位所見，成本在全年持續上升；但按季來看，增幅相對溫和。

The red line represents gross ton miles, which is a good proxy for our total workload, which is now -- which we have indexed to the first quarter. As usual, our workload peaked in the second quarter.

紅線代表總噸英里（gross ton miles），這是衡量我們總工作量的良好代理指標——我們已將其以第一季為基準進行指數化。如往常一樣，我們的工作量在第二季達到高峰。

At the same time our service measures began to decline, as you recall; and we made a conscious decision to begin to add the resources. Now as we began to add those resources and expenses increased to reflect that, we also saw a softening in the economy in the third quarter across the industry. This drove up our expense per gross ton mile, represented by the gold line on the chart.

同時，如各位所記得，我們的服務指標開始下滑；因此我們有意識地決定開始增加資源。當我們開始增補這些資源、費用也隨之上升以反映該投入時，我們也在第三季看到全產業經濟轉弱。這使得我們每總噸英里的費用上升，並由圖表中的金色線表示。

Now as you look at this last fourth quarter we see this as an incredibly good sign of things to come for 2012. GTMs increased sequentially; non-fuel costs were only up $14 million from the third quarter; and as a result, expense per gross ton mile improved sequentially.

再看最新的第四季，我們認為這是2012年可期發展的極佳訊號。GTMs按季增加；非燃料成本僅較第三季增加1,400萬美元；因此，每總噸英里的費用按季改善。

In addition, as Cindy spoke about earlier, service measures were at very high levels for the quarter. All of this sets the stage for 2012.

此外，如Cindy先前提到，本季服務指標維持在非常高的水準。這一切為2012年奠定了基礎。

As we go forward into this year and as I mentioned earlier, we expect to be able to handle growth with few additional resources. To be clear and reflecting the fact that we have made most of the resource investments beginning in the second half of 2011, over the course of 2012 we fully expect incremental margins to return to the levels we saw in 2010 and the first half of 2011.

展望今年，正如我先前提到的，我們預期能以很少的額外資源來承接成長。更明確地說，鑑於我們在2011年下半年已完成大部分資源投資，2012年全年我們完全預期增量利潤率將回到2010年以及2011年上半年的水準。

Now, let's turn our attention to capital investment on the next slide. The Company's confidence in near- and long-term profitable growth help support CSX's continued balanced approach to cash deployment, beginning with capital investment. In 2012, CSX plans to invest $2.25 billion in our business.

接著，讓我們把焦點轉到下一頁投影片的資本投資。公司對短期與長期具獲利性成長的信心，支持CSX持續採取均衡的資金配置方式，而資本投資是其中的起點。2012年，CSX計畫投資22.5億美元於我們的業務。

On the chart on the left you can see that the bulk of the capital spending in 2012 will be used to maintain the infrastructure and invest in equipment to help ensure a fluid network for our customers. We will also continue to focus on strategic investments, supporting long-term profitable growth. These investments, coupled with a continued focus on operating efficiencies and inflation-plus pricing will help us grow to a 65% operating ratio no later than 2015.

從左側圖表可見，2012年大部分資本支出將用於維護基礎設施並投資設備，以協助確保為客戶提供順暢的網路運行。我們也將持續聚焦策略性投資，以支援長期具獲利性的成長。這些投資，加上持續專注於營運效率與高於通膨的定價，將協助我們在不晚於2015年達成65%的營業比率。

Finally, the investment needed to meet regulatory requirements will continue to be driven primarily by Positive Train Control.

最後，為符合監管要求所需的投資，仍將主要由正向列車控制（Positive Train Control）所驅動。

Now, let's turn to the next slide and discuss our dividend and share buyback approach. On the left-hand side of the page, dividends per share increased by 36% in 2011. Going forward, CSX is committed to a dividend payout range of 30% to 35% of trailing 12 months' earnings; and this will be reviewed annually every May.

現在，讓我們轉到下一頁投影片，討論我們的股利與股票回購策略。在頁面左側，2011年每股股利增加36%。展望未來，CSX承諾股利發放率將維持在過去12個月盈餘的30%至35%區間；並將於每年5月進行年度檢視。

Moving to the chart on the right, CSX has now collectively repurchased $7.2 billion of shares since 2006, representing an approximately one-third of total shares outstanding. Last year, we repurchased $1.6 billion worth of shares; this included $1.3 billion of our current $2 billion share repurchase program. This remaining $700 million of repurchases under the current program will be completed by the end of 2012 and will be funded primarily through free cash flow.

再看右側圖表，自2006年以來，CSX累計已回購72億美元的股票，約占流通在外總股數的三分之一。去年我們回購了16億美元的股票；其中包含目前20億美元股票回購計畫中的13億美元。本計畫剩餘的7億美元回購將於2012年底前完成，資金主要來自自由現金流。

A reminder. Once the current program is complete, we anticipate continued share repurchases of approximately $1 billion a year from 2013 through 2015, again funded primarily through free cash.

提醒一下。一旦目前的計畫完成，我們預期自 2013 年至 2015 年將持續進行每年約 10 億美元的庫藏股回購，資金同樣主要來自自由現金流。

Now, let's turn to the next slide as I wrap up. Recapping the fourth quarter, we delivered strong financial results. And while costs were up marginally on a sequential basis, service has returned to high levels. On a full-year basis, EPS was up 24% on a combination of strong pricing, volume growth, and resource investments, translating to strong customer service by the year-end.

現在，在我做結語時，讓我們看下一張投影片。回顧第四季，我們交出強勁的財務成果。雖然成本較前一季小幅上升，但服務水準已回到高檔。以全年來看，在強勁定價、運量成長與資源投資的綜合作用下，每股盈餘（EPS）成長 24%，並在年底轉化為強勁的客戶服務表現。

Now, with this as background, the stage is set for CSX to deliver strong margin improvement in 2012. With resources in place today for growth, over the course of the year we expect to deliver improving incremental margins. Our progress in 2011 gives us confidence that we will again deliver record results in 2012, which keeps us on track to grow to 65% operating ratio no later than 2015.

在此背景之下，CSX 已具備於 2012 年實現強勁利潤率改善的條件。目前成長所需資源已到位，我們預期在全年過程中，將交出逐步改善的增量利潤率。我們在 2011 年的進展讓我們有信心，2012 年將再次創下紀錄性成果，並使我們持續朝著最遲於 2015 年達成 65% 營業比率（operating ratio）的目標前進。

So, with that, let me turn that back to Michael for his remarks.

那麼，接下來我把時間交還給 Michael，請他發表談話。

Well, thank you, Oscar. When we stand back and look at 2012, it helps to think about the opportunity for our Company against the three criteria. First, what does the business environment look like?

好的，謝謝你，Oscar。當我們退一步來看 2012 年時，從三項標準來思考本公司所面臨的機會會很有幫助。第一，商業環境看起來如何？

As Clarence noted, there are favorable conditions in nearly every major market we serve. CSX provides service to a diverse portfolio of businesses, and through them we see an economy that continues to be favorable for growth.

如 Clarence 所提到的，我們服務的幾乎每個主要市場都具備有利條件。CSX 為多元的企業組合提供服務，透過這些客戶，我們看到經濟環境仍然有利於成長。

Second, are we able to grow in this environment? Yes. As stated earlier, we believe we will be able to grow faster than the economy overall.

第二，在這樣的環境下我們能否成長？可以。如先前所述，我們相信我們的成長速度將能快於整體經濟。

In the merchandise business, which makes up more than 40% of our volume, we expect to achieve solid growth in line with the macro economy. We are also expecting strong growth in intermodal, which makes up more than 35% of our volumes. We have a significant head start coming into the year with the onboarding of Maersk, and there is every indication that highway conversions to rail will continue to drive further growth in intermodal.

在雜貨（merchandise）業務方面，其占我們運量超過 40%，我們預期可取得與總體經濟一致的穩健成長。我們也預期聯運（intermodal）將有強勁成長，其占我們運量超過 35%。由於 Maersk 的導入，我們在年初就已取得顯著的領先優勢，而且各項跡象顯示，公路轉鐵路的轉換將持續推動聯運進一步成長。

Third, can CSX grow profitably in this environment? Here again, the answer is yes.

第三，CSX 能否在此環境下實現獲利性成長？同樣地，答案是肯定的。

It is important to note that CSX was able to generate record earnings in 2011 at a time when we were making strategic resource investments that will position the Company for future and drive long-term growth. Now we have a network that is more capable than it was a year ago and a workforce that still has a relentless focus on safety, service, and productivity.

需要強調的是，CSX 在 2011 年進行策略性資源投資、為公司未來定位並推動長期成長的同時，仍能創下歷史新高的獲利。如今，我們的路網能力較一年前更強，而我們的員工隊伍仍然對安全、服務與生產力保持不懈的專注。

In 2012, it is our job to leverage that capability of our network and our organization to deliver outstanding results for our customers and for you, our shareholders. As we do this I am confident CSX will once again deliver record financial performance in 2012 and continue to progress toward a 65% operating ratio by no later than 2015.

在 2012 年，我們的工作是運用路網與組織的這些能力，為客戶以及各位股東交出卓越成果。在此過程中，我有信心 CSX 將在 2012 年再次創下紀錄性的財務表現，並持續朝著最遲於 2015 年達成 65% 營業比率的目標邁進。

Thank you for joining us this morning, and we look forward to taking your questions at this time.

感謝各位今天早上加入我們，接下來我們期待回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Scott Group, Wolfe Trahan.

（接線員指示）Scott Group，Wolfe Trahan。

Thanks, good morning, guys. So, wanted to start a little bit with utility coal and try to understand, with gas prices now well below $3, how much incremental switching do you expect at this point?

謝謝，早安，各位。我想先從公用事業用煤談起，並試著了解，在天然氣價格目前遠低於 3 美元的情況下，你們此時預期會有多少額外的燃料替代（switching）？

And when we think about cheap gas, regulations, a warm start to winter, what gives you the confidence that domestic coal volumes won't be down another, give or take, high single digits in '12 like they were last year?

另外，當我們考量低價天然氣、法規、冬季一開始偏暖等因素時，是什麼讓你們有信心，2012 年國內煤炭運量不會像去年一樣再下滑約高個位數百分比？

Thank you, Scott. That's an excellent question. This is Clarence.

謝謝你，Scott。這是個很好的問題。我是 Clarence。

First, we saw a significant impact on our coal business already in 2011 because of natural gas prices. So most of the plants that are in our region that can convert either to the combined-cycle gas or in the latter part when gas prices got below $3, which would be the single-peakers coming online, we have seen that conversion.

第一，我們在 2011 年就已因天然氣價格而看到煤炭業務受到顯著影響。因此，我們區域內多數可改用複循環燃氣機組的電廠，或在天然氣價格跌破 3 美元後、單循環尖峰機組（single-peakers）開始上線的那段期間，我們都已看到這些轉換發生。

Number two, most of the utilities that were impacted by the environmental regulation of CSAPR, which are our older plants and less efficient plants, the principal and preponderance of those plants had been off-line; and we don't expect that to have any significant impact going forward for us.

第二，受 CSAPR 環境法規影響的多數公用事業電廠——也就是我們那些較老、效率較低的電廠——其中主要且絕大部分都已停機；我們不預期這在未來會對我們造成任何重大影響。

Third is that gas prices, in our view, are nearing the end of where the bottom of the gas market is. As I am sure you are aware because your group follows it pretty closely, you are seeing the rig counts start to do several things. One, they are changing; they're actually going down particularly in the Marcellus Shale.

第三，我們認為天然氣價格已接近氣價市場的底部尾聲。我相信你也知道，因為你們團隊密切追蹤這個領域，你們已看到鑽機數量開始出現幾個變化。第一，它們正在改變；實際上正在下降，尤其是在 Marcellus 頁岩區。

Two, a lot of the drill rigging counts are moving from Eastern Pennsylvania over to Western Pennsylvania to go for the Utica oil reserves. So we see a stabilizing in the natural gas prices.

第二，許多鑽機數量正從賓夕法尼亞州東部移往賓夕法尼亞州西部，以開採 Utica 的石油儲量。因此我們看到天然氣價格正在趨於穩定。

Now having said that, sequentially on a year-over-year basis we will be a little softer than the first quarter, but nowhere near in our utility business like it was in 2011.

話雖如此，若以年對年來看，我們在第一季的表現會比去年同期稍弱一些，但在公用事業業務方面，絕不會像 2011 年那樣疲弱。

Okay. That's good color. Then one for Oscar. Wanted to dig a little deeper on your guidance on the incremental margins getting back to 2010 and first-half 2011 levels.

好的。這些說明很有幫助。接著有一題想問 Oscar。我想更深入了解你們對增量利潤率回到 2010 年及 2011 年上半年水準的指引。

Actually, a pretty big disparity I think between '10 and first-half of '11. When you think about the guidance to get to a 65% OR, it feels like we need to get incrementals back into the 50% range. Is that something that is achievable in 2012?

實際上，我認為 2010 年與 2011 年上半年之間差距相當大。當你們談到要達成 65% 的營業比率（OR）的指引時，感覺我們需要把增量利潤率拉回到 50% 左右。這在 2012 年做得到嗎？

I think as I said, Scott, we will see those improve throughout the year as we cycle the resource investments in 2011. And on a full-year basis, it will return to the levels we saw back in there.

Scott，我想如我所說，我們會在全年過程中看到這些指標逐步改善，因為我們會逐步消化 2011 年的資源投資基期。以全年來看，它會回到我們當時看到的水準。

To get to the 65%, obviously the math says you have to get your incremental margins at least above 35% over the course of time. And the power of our pricing, the power of our service and productivity, are the things that drive that. So yes, we have good confidence over the course of the next couple years, along with an economic recovery, that we can get to those numbers.

要達到 65%，顯然從數學上來看，你必須在一段時間內把增量利潤率至少拉到 35% 以上。而推動這一點的因素，是我們定價的力道、服務的力道以及生產力。所以是的，我們對未來幾年、配合經濟復甦能達到那些數字，具有相當信心。

Thank you, Scott.

謝謝你，Scott。

Okay. Thanks for the time.

好的。謝謝撥冗。

Ken Hoexter, Merrill Lynch.

Ken Hoexter，Merrill Lynch。

Hey, good morning. I guess maybe if we could just start off with a little bit of insight on the management changes. Oscar, as you move over to the operations role can you dig in on some of the projects that you target for that $130 million of annual savings? I guess almost doubling from what you did this year.

嗨，早安。我想也許我們可以先從管理層變動談一些看法。Oscar，當你轉任營運職務時，能否深入說明一下你們鎖定用來達成每年 1.3 億美元節省的部分專案？我想這幾乎是你們今年成果的近乎加倍。

Before that, let me just address it a little bit in general, this change. We have, I think, really good disciplined operation in our culture now, and that is in place. What we really need to do is to go to our -- to our grow to 65%, we have got to continue to get our productivity of $130 million to $140 million a year. We need to continue to get above rail inflation pricing, which I am confident we will do. We also need to grow the business.

在那之前，讓我先就這次變動做一些概括性的說明。我認為我們的文化現在已建立起非常良好且有紀律的營運方式，而這些都已到位。我們真正需要做的是——要成長到 65%，我們必須持續每年取得 1.3 億到 1.4 億美元的生產力提升。我們也需要持續取得高於鐵路通膨的定價，我有信心我們能做到。我們也需要擴大業務規模。

The primary drive for this is we can take that disciplined culture; put more rigor, better customer service, better margin expansion through those efficiencies to really take it to the next level. And in my view, Oscar was the guy. He has been a proven leader here at CSX, a key business partner of me, nine-year veteran of the Company. I think Oscar is the guy to take us to that next level.

這麼做的主要動力在於，我們可以把那種嚴謹自律的文化帶過去；透過這些效率提升，導入更嚴密的管理、更好的客戶服務，以及更好的利潤率擴張，真正把它推進到下一個層級。而在我看來，Oscar 就是那個人。他在 CSX 這裡已被證明是一位領導者，是我重要的業務夥伴，也是在公司服務九年的資深同仁。我認為 Oscar 就是能帶領我們邁向下一個層級的人。

So that is primarily the reason for those changes; and as you know, Fredrik is going to come in behind him, Fredrik Eliasson. Again I think many of you know Fredrik from his years when he did Investor Relations for us. Again, another proven leader that brings great expertise and knowledge.

所以這些變動主要就是基於這個原因；而且如各位所知，Fredrik Eliasson 會接在他後面進來。我想你們很多人都認識 Fredrik，因為他過去幾年曾為我們負責投資人關係。同樣地，他也是另一位經過驗證的領導者，具備很強的專業能力與知識。

So I just wanted to talk about that in general some, before Oscar, you talk some about the productivity.

所以在 Oscar 談一些生產力之前，我只是想先就這件事做一些概括性的說明。

Sure. And Ken, I will eventually fade back here to your specific question on $130 million; but I can't tell you how exciting this opportunity is for me for a host of different reasons, and there's a lot of initiatives.

當然。Ken，我最後會回到你關於 1.3 億美元的具體問題；但我無法形容這個機會對我而言有多令人振奮，原因很多，而且有很多項倡議。

But before I start with that, I can't overemphasize -- and frankly, we have all read the overnight critiques on all, on the management changes and appreciate everyone's viewpoints. But you can't underemphasize the importance of how many people we have, 30,000, that over the course of the last few years have built a great disciplined culture around operating our business. Cindy Sanborn who is in the room with us is one of those.

但在我開始之前，我必須再三強調——坦白說，我們都看了昨晚外界對管理層變動的各種評論，也尊重每個人的觀點。但你不能低估我們有多少人——3 萬人——在過去幾年裡建立起一種圍繞我們業務運作的高度自律文化的重要性。Cindy Sanborn 就在現場，她就是其中之一。

This is not a business about one person running trains. This is about an entire network and a whole group of people. That structure is in place and working through that.

這不是一個靠某一個人來開火車的生意。這關乎整個網路，以及一整群人。那個架構已經建立並且正在運作。

So my role, as I will talk about it a little bit, is a broader one initially, as I transition to the role.

所以我的角色——我稍後會談到——在我轉任這個職務的初期，會更偏向於更廣泛的層面。

On the $130 million, the great news about it is that there is no new initiative that I have to bring. That plan is in place. As Cindy mentioned, that pipeline is built-in.

關於那 1.3 億美元，最好的消息是我不需要提出任何新的倡議。那個計畫已經到位。如 Cindy 提到的，那個管線已經內建。

We are in the process of building a pipeline for the next couple of years. That is how the process has always worked. That is how it will continue to work.

我們正在建立未來幾年的管線。這一直以來就是這個流程的運作方式。未來也會持續如此。

So I will clearly have more individual input into the outer years. But as far as this year, we have a great group of accountable individuals that are going to get at it and we will pivot from that. So, that is the long answer on the $130 million, Ken.

所以我會在更外圍的年度提供更明確的個人投入。但就今年而言，我們有一群很棒、具責任感的同仁會把它做出來，而我們也會以此為基礎再做調整。所以，Ken，這就是關於 1.3 億美元的長答案。

No, I appreciate the insight there, and congratulations and good luck on the new role. If I can just get a follow-up then on -- can you talk about what projects are on deck for this year in terms of the National Gateway?

不，我很感謝你提供的洞見，也恭喜你並祝你在新職務上一切順利。如果我可以再追問一下——你能談談今年在 National Gateway 方面有哪些即將推進的專案嗎？

Obviously the Northwest Ohio opened last year. Are there further projects that you see enhancing that ability I guess to grow intermodal and others?

顯然，西北俄亥俄（Northwest Ohio）去年已經啟用。你是否看到還有進一步的專案，能提升我們擴大聯運（intermodal）及其他業務成長的能力？

Yes, Ken, this is Michael. As you are right, the Northwest Ohio terminal is up, running well. We're just working on expansion of our Columbus Intermodal Terminal. We just opened up a new one in Louisville at the end of last year.

是的，Ken，我是 Michael。你說得對，西北俄亥俄的場站已經啟用，運作良好。我們正在進行哥倫布聯運場站的擴建。我們也在去年年底於路易維爾新開了一座場站。

On the clearance side of it, what we are calling Phase I of clearance, which is between Northwest Ohio over to our facility in Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, it is proceeding on plan. It is underway, and we expect by early 2013 that route will be cleared.

在淨空（clearance）方面，我們所稱的第一階段淨空，也就是從西北俄亥俄到賓夕法尼亞州錢伯斯堡（Chambersburg）我們的設施之間的路段，正按計畫推進。目前已在進行中，我們預期到 2013 年初該路線將完成淨空。

In addition, we are working very closely with the Maryland Department of Transportation to site a new Intermodal Terminal in Baltimore, and we have a very huge project in the District of Columbia where we are working to double-stack, clear, and double-track the Virginia Avenue Tunnel.

此外，我們正與馬里蘭州交通部密切合作，在巴爾的摩選址興建新的聯運場站；同時我們在華盛頓特區也有一個非常大型的專案，正在推動維吉尼亞大道隧道（Virginia Avenue Tunnel）的雙層堆疊淨空（double-stack clearance）以及複線化（double-track）。

We are in the environmental evaluation, environmental assessment period at this time. We have been doing community outreach for about a year now. And we are hopeful that that EA will be done somewhere mid-year this year, mid to late third quarter and that we would be able to commence construction at that point to clear that from Norfolk over through to Chambersburg.

我們目前正處於環境評估、環境審查期間。我們已經進行社區溝通約一年了。我們希望今年年中、第三季中後段左右能完成該環評（EA），並能在那個時間點開始施工，以完成從諾福克（Norfolk）一路到錢伯斯堡的淨空。

Thanks. Appreciate the insight.

謝謝。感謝你的洞見。

Tom Wadewitz, JPMorgan.

JPMorgan 的 Tom Wadewitz。

Yes, good morning. Let's see. I know you gave us some comments on the management change. I just wonder if there is anything else you can add in terms of the catalyst for why you made the decision, the timing of it.

是的，早安。我想想。我知道你們已經就管理層變動給了一些評論。我只是想知道，關於你們做出這個決定的觸發因素以及時點安排，是否還有其他可以補充的？

Oscar, it sounds like the operation is running well. But do you have any initial thoughts on what you may do to drive that next leg of improvement that Michael was talking about?

Oscar，聽起來營運狀況運行得很好。但你對於要如何推動 Michael 所提到的下一階段改善，有沒有任何初步想法？

Well, Tom, I think you can appreciate our not making further comments as to some of the reasons why David has chosen -- or David has left the Company. The Company decided that he should leave; and we're just going to leave it at that. We're not going to comment further on that at this point.

Tom，我想你能理解，我們不會就 David 選擇——或 David 已離開公司——的一些原因再做進一步評論。公司決定他應該離開；我們就先說到這裡。目前我們不會再就此做更多評論。

I do think, though, that this is a very positive thing with Oscar and Fredrik moving into the new positions. I think it will really propel us into the next level.

不過我確實認為，Oscar 與 Fredrik 轉任新職是非常正面的事情。我認為這將真正推動我們邁向下一個層級。

Yes, Tom, and I will be a little esoteric on this, because again I've been thinking about this for quite some time, just as a general part of the overall executive team. As we look forward, and as you know very well and as all of the people on the call, the markets in our business are becoming slightly more volatile. That appears to be a trend that is going to continue for some time.

是的，Tom，我在這裡會講得稍微抽象一些，因為我其實已經思考這件事一段時間了，作為整體高階管理團隊的一部分。展望未來，如你非常清楚、也如同所有與會者所知，我們業務所處的市場正變得稍微更具波動性。看起來這會是一個將持續一段時間的趨勢。

We will have questions on domestic and export coal and other markets over the course of time. And all our network structure, how we design and build, has to become more nimble and agile. Those are key things that I think I can help with, with regards to leveraging the tools we already have, the technology organization that is coming along with me, which is why we married the two.

隨著時間推移，我們會面臨國內與出口煤炭以及其他市場的各種問題。而我們的整體網路架構——我們如何設計與建構——必須變得更靈活、更敏捷。我認為這些是我能協助的關鍵事項：運用我們既有的工具，以及隨我一併納入的科技組織——這也是我們把兩者結合在一起的原因。

And of course, I can't emphasize the personal leadership of all the experienced people we have in our operating team. So it is about nimble and agility aspects going forward as we fine-tune and take this network to the next level.

當然，我也必須強調我們營運團隊中所有資深同仁的個人領導力。因此，重點在於未來在靈活性與敏捷性方面，持續微調並把這個網路推進到下一個層級。

Okay, great. I appreciate those comments; and also congratulations to you, Oscar, on the new role; and also to Fredrik on his new role.

好的，很好。感謝你的說明；也恭喜你，Oscar，升任新職，也恭喜 Fredrik 擔任新職。

The second question for me is on export coal. There is some noise in the market that you may be discounting or perhaps at the end of the year were discounting some shipments of export thermal coal, perhaps to get the coal flowing into the market. I think thermal coal prices globally have been down.

我的第二個問題是關於出口煤。市場上有一些傳聞，說你們可能正在折價，或是在年底時曾對部分出口動力煤（export thermal coal）出貨採取折價，可能是為了讓煤炭能流入市場。我認為全球動力煤價格一直在下跌。

So, I don't know if you can comment on that or perhaps comment more broadly about how we should think about modeling your pricing in your export business in 2012, whether there is some risk that your pricing in export coal is down; or whether you think that that is more likely to be flattish. Thank you.

所以，我不確定你是否能對此做些評論，或更廣泛地談談我們在 2012 年應如何建模你們出口業務的定價：你們出口煤的價格是否有下行風險；或者你們認為更可能是大致持平。謝謝。

Tom, this is Clarence. Most of our thermal coal that we are selling into the market right now was actually physically sold in some cases as late as -- or as early as 2010, but in most cases throughout the year in 2011. So they were all sold on forward curves at the time of the API2 Index.

Tom，我是Clarence。我們目前正在銷往市場的大部分動力煤，實際上在某些情況下早在2010年就已完成實體銷售，但多數是在2011年全年期間售出。因此，當時都是依據API2指數的遠期曲線來售出的。

Our metallurgical coals are sold both in our tariff, which has not changed, and is sold usually in most cases on an annualized basis beginning in April of each year. So one, nothing has materially changed on that metallurgical side; and two, we will know more as we start to approach that April time frame.

我們的冶金煤同時以我們的費率（未變更）銷售，且通常在多數情況下是以每年一次、從每年4月開始的年度化基礎來銷售。所以第一，冶金煤那一端沒有任何實質性的變化；第二，當我們開始接近4月那個時間點時，我們會知道得更多。

There was some things in the coal rags that talked about in December the pricing for thermal coal into the export market, and there were some cases there where we were in fact pricing on what the API2 Index and its forward curve was, based on the December numbers. But it was no price cutting at all that was going in there on any kind of existing business that we had.

煤炭行業刊物上有一些內容提到12月出口市場動力煤的定價；在某些情況下，我們確實是依據API2指數及其遠期曲線、以12月的數據來定價。但我們並沒有對任何既有業務做任何形式的降價。

Okay. So you think flattish pricing and take another look in April, I guess, to see what it is (multiple speakers). Okay. Thank you for the time.

好的。所以你認為價格大致持平，然後我想在4月再看一次，看看情況如何（多位發言者）。好的。謝謝你撥冗。

Bill Greene, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley的Bill Greene。

Hi, good morning. Clarence, just a point of clarification on the export coal. You sort of suggested the strength will continue. I assume that means flattish, maybe slightly up volumes on export coal. But just some clarity there.

嗨，早安。Clarence，關於出口煤我想澄清一點。你似乎暗示強勁態勢會延續。我假設那代表出口煤的量大致持平，可能略有增加。但想請你再說清楚一些。

And if that is the correct interpretation, what are the data points you look for that give you confidence export coal is not going to fall?

如果這樣的解讀是正確的，你觀察哪些數據點，讓你有信心出口煤不會下滑？

Well, at this point, Bill, as we said earlier, (technical difficulty) is really too early for us to accurately forecast the full year ahead. But we do expect the export coal to be at strong levels and similar to what they were in 2011.

嗯，Bill，就目前而言，正如我們先前所說，（技術問題）現在對我們來說還太早，無法精準預測未來整年的情況。但我們預期出口煤將維持在強勁水準，並與2011年的水準相近。

We predicate that on at least two of the markets that we are serving, both Asia -- which China is still growing at a 6% to 7% clip -- India's need, as well as South American need in our particular coal franchise.

我們的判斷至少基於我們所服務的兩個市場：亞洲——中國仍以6%到7%的速度成長——以及印度的需求，還有南美在我們特定煤炭業務版圖中的需求。

Then as I pointed out for the foreseeable future the thermal contracts that we have are in place or under contract; the shippers are required to take them. We have seen no indications that anyone plans not to take those shipments.

另外，如我所指出，在可預見的未來，我們的動力煤合約已經到位或已簽約；承運方必須提貨。我們沒有看到任何跡象顯示有人打算不提走那些貨運。

So for at least the foreseeable future we feel very positive.

因此，至少在可預見的未來，我們感到非常正面。

All right. That's helpful. Thanks.

了解。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Then, Oscar or Michael, just as we look at the buybacks you didn't do any in the fourth quarter. I realize you probably had some debt that you were going to pay down.

另外，Oscar或Michael，談到庫藏股回購，你們第四季沒有做任何回購。我知道你們可能有一些債務要償還。

But as you look to '12, given the comments on incremental margins and the growth that you are expecting, it would seem that we should resume here and arguably on an aggressive rate. Is that fair?

但展望2012年，考量你們對增量利潤率以及預期成長的評論，看起來我們應該恢復回購，而且可以說應該以更積極的速度進行。這樣說合理嗎？

Bill, I think what we have said is that we have a remaining authority of $700 million, which we will complete this year.

Bill，我想我們已經說過，我們尚有7億美元的剩餘授權額度，我們會在今年完成。

Okay. Thanks for the time.

好的。謝謝你撥冗。

Chris Ceraso, Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse的Chris Ceraso。

Thank you. Good morning. A couple of areas. On the Maersk business, can you tell us how much of that is going on existing trains versus how much is going on new trains?

謝謝。早安。有幾個面向。關於Maersk的業務，你能告訴我們其中有多少是使用既有列車在運作，多少是使用新列車在運作嗎？

Yes, Chris. This is Clarence Gooden. The principal and preponderance of that Maersk business is going on existing trains.

可以，Chris。我是Clarence Gooden。Maersk那塊業務的主要部分、以及絕大多數，都是在既有列車上運作。

There are exceptions to that. So for example, we have a lot of volume that is coming out of Commonwealth's new -- Maersk's new facility called Commonwealth over in Virginia; and that required some new train starts. Then in the Chicago to New York lane, where we had some of our train capacity was filling up, we had to add incremental train starts there. But a lot of it was absorbed within the existing network, particularly in the Southeast.

當然也有例外。例如，我們有大量貨量來自Commonwealth的新——Maersk在維吉尼亞的新設施，名為Commonwealth；那需要啟動一些新的列車班次。另外在芝加哥到紐約的走廊，我們部分列車運能已接近滿載，因此必須在那裡增加額外的列車班次。但其中很大一部分是在既有網路內被吸收，特別是在美國東南部。

Okay. Then as a follow-up, you were pretty thorough on your comments about domestic coal, but one follow-up on that. Some of the folks that we have spoken to in the industry have mentioned the $2 level on gas as a price at which we might see it trigger some additional switching.

好的。接著追問一下，你對國內煤的評論已相當完整，但我還有一個後續問題。我們與業界一些人士交流時，他們提到天然氣價格在2美元左右，可能會觸發更多的燃料替代（switching）。

Can you comment on that? Do you agree with that?

你能評論一下嗎？你同意這個看法嗎？

Well, I don't know is the truth. I know that below $2.50 it starts to impact the Powder River Basin coal. Having said that, when coal starts to -- when natural gas starts approaching those $2 levels, as you are aware there was a lot of speculation yesterday on that.

老實說，我不知道。我知道低於2.50美元時，就會開始影響粉河盆地（Powder River Basin）的煤。話雖如此，當煤開始——當天然氣開始接近2美元那種水準時，如你所知，昨天對此有很多揣測。

One, the drill counts start coming down because it is very -- it is not as profitable to drill for the natural gas at that low a rate. Number two, you saw some of the energy companies announce they will focus more on the shale that can produce the liquids, the oil.

第一，鑽井數會開始下降，因為在那麼低的價格下鑽探天然氣的獲利性很——沒有那麼好。第二，你也看到一些能源公司宣布，他們會更聚焦於能產出液體（液態烴）的頁岩，也就是石油。

Number three, then, you have to start taking into consideration what are the mineral leases? When do they expire?

第三，接著你還必須開始考量礦權租約是什麼？它們何時到期？

So, Chris, it is a very complex formula. But let me just say it, conclude it like this. I don't like natural gas this cheap.

所以，Chris，這是一個非常複雜的公式。但我就這樣總結：我不喜歡天然氣這麼便宜。

Fair enough. Okay. Thanks.

可以理解。好的。謝謝。

Justin Yagerman, Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank的Justin Yagerman。

Hey, good morning, guys. Clarence, your comments on the response to Bill Greene on export coal, it sounded like the thermal side of that export is take-or-pay. I was just curious that, when we look at this year's export coal mix, how much ended up as thermal coal? How long do those contracts last for?

嗨，早安，各位。Clarence，你在回覆Bill Greene關於出口煤的問題時，聽起來出口中的動力煤部分是「照付不議（take-or-pay）」。我想請教，當我們看今年出口煤的組合時，最後有多少是動力煤？那些合約的期限有多長？

So I guess what I'm trying to get at is what is -- putting met coal aside, which sounds a bit more volatile, what is the baseline expectation for coal in 2012 on the export side?

所以我想問的是——先把冶金煤放一邊，因為聽起來它波動較大——2012年出口端煤炭的基準預期是什麼？

Our thermal mix was about 38% last year. It is projected to be in that area to slightly higher this year. That is point number one.

我們去年的動力煤占比約為38%。今年預計也會在那個區間，或略高一些。這是第一點。

Point number two, those thermal contracts were on a yearly basis in general. And the prognostication for those thermal contracts we really won't know until later in the year, because as you are aware, there has been -- we have moderating temperatures in the United States' Eastern part. We have moderating temperatures in Northern Europe. We got drought conditions in South America.

第二點，這些動力煤合約一般而言是以一年期為主。而對於這些動力煤合約的預測，我們要到今年稍晚才會更清楚，因為如你所知，已經出現——美國東部氣溫趨於溫和。北歐氣溫也趨於溫和。南美則出現乾旱狀況。

So a lot of this stuff is going to be influenced by the weather. I guess your second part of it -- Justin, help me -- was on metallurgical?

所以很多事情都會受到天氣影響。我想你第二部分——Justin，幫我一下——是問冶金煤嗎？

No, no, that really -- it was more the duration of when does this -- these take-or-pay contracts last through?

不，不，那其實——主要是想問這些「照付不議」合約的期間，會持續到什麼時候？

A lot of them will last through most of 2012.

其中很多會持續到2012年大部分時間。

Okay, all right. Great. Then I guess the next question is on the intermodal side; was curious how long the trains that you are currently running are, and what you see as capacity on those trains. Then you gave us some quantification on that on the coal side but not on the intermodal side.

好的，沒問題。很好。那我想下一個問題是關於聯運這一塊；我想了解你們目前在跑的列車編組長度大概是多少，以及你們認為這些列車的運能還有多少。你們在煤炭業務那邊有提供一些量化數據，但在聯運這邊沒有。

Then when I am looking at the Maersk business coming on and you re-signed a contract with Schneider on the domestic side, should we expect any change in terms of the profitability of the overall business with these two new contracts being an influence this year?

另外，當我看到馬士基（Maersk）的業務開始導入，以及你們在國內業務方面與施奈德（Schneider）重新簽約，這兩份新合約在今年帶來影響之下，我們是否應該預期整體業務的獲利能力會有任何變化？

Justin, this is Cindy. Let me address the question about capacity on the intermodal network. We see about 15% to 20% capacity capability on the existing trains that we are operating. So we see a great opportunity to take on the growth that we are anticipating and do so with the existing network.

Justin，我是Cindy。我先回應聯運網路運能的問題。我們認為在目前正在營運的既有列車上，約有15%到20%的運能空間。因此，我們看到很好的機會，可以用現有網路來承接我們預期的成長。

And I will let Clarence answer the Schneider question.

至於施奈德的問題，我讓Clarence來回答。

Justin, we feel very positive on the profitability of all of the intermodal business that we are handling right now. In fact, it is helping us to justify the capital investments that we are putting into it. So in my view it is a very positive story.

Justin，我們對目前所承攬的所有聯運業務之獲利能力感到非常正面。事實上，這也有助於我們合理化我們投入其中的資本投資。所以在我看來，這是一個非常正面的故事。

Okay, great. If I could ask one more, just on the MS&O side, Oscar, as we look out at 2012, obviously this past quarter you had a bit of a bogey if you didn't pick up on the $40 million from last year. As we look out sequentially for the first few quarters of this year, are there any of those types of items that we should be aware of as we are modeling out?

好的，很好。如果我可以再問一個，關於MS&O這一塊，Oscar，當我們展望2012年，顯然這一季你們有點失手，因為沒有拿到去年那4,000萬美元。當我們依序看今年前幾季時，在我們建模時，有沒有類似這種項目需要注意？

Chris, we don't typically talk about a particular line item -- Justin. Particularly talk about that.

Chris，我們通常不會談某一個特定的科目——Justin。特別去談那個。

But let me rephrase your question just a little bit. The MS&O line was the line item in this quarter that, if I look at (technical difficulty) sequentially operations ran well, volume ticked up, the operating expenses were well controlled. We had a host of small items in that MS&O line that, frankly I own -- or not controlling as well as I should. And that was the blip this year.

不過我稍微重述一下你的問題。本季MS&O這個科目，如果我看（技術問題）按季來看，營運表現良好、運量略有上升、營運費用也控制得很好。我們在MS&O這個科目裡有一堆小項目，坦白說是我該負責——或是我沒有像應該的那樣控制好。而這就是今年的那個小插曲。

As we go forward, we have got that under control. And again that MS&O line as you know always moves around a little bit, but the sort of unique items that have hit us at year-end are not going to be repeated.

往後看，我們已經把它控制住了。而且如你所知，MS&O這個科目一向會有些波動，但那些在年末打到我們的特殊項目不會再重演。

Great. All right. Thank you guys for your time.

很好。好。謝謝各位撥冗。

Gary Chase, Barclays Capital.

Barclays Capital的Gary Chase。

Good morning, guys. Wondered if Michael or maybe Oscar could take a stab at this one. I wondered if you could give us a qualitative sense -- or how would you describe qualitatively what the difference in the network is today versus, say, where you were operating through the majority of 2010? I know the service levels have gotten back to where you like; but I also think the cost outcomes aren't quite what you would like.

各位早安。想請Michael或也許Oscar來回答這題。想請你們從質性的角度談談——或你們會如何質性描述——現在的網路與例如2010年大部分時間你們營運時的網路相比，有什麼不同？我知道服務水準已回到你們想要的狀態；但我也覺得成本結果還沒有完全達到你們想要的。

So I am wondering what is it qualitatively that describes it? And how do we get out of this? What gives you the confidence that you can get back to the right kinds of answers there?

所以我想知道，質性上該怎麼描述？我們要如何走出這個狀況？你們憑什麼有信心能回到正確的結果？

Well, if you go back a little bit, as you know in 2009 we very aggressively took out cost. Actually had our second-best operating year ever -- operating income year, even with volumes down about 15%.

如果你回頭看一點，如你所知，2009年我們非常積極地削減成本。即使運量下滑約15%，我們其實創下史上第二好的營運年度——以營業利益來看。

As we moved into '10, Gary, we were very conscious to not bring those resources back more quickly than we needed to. So we through a good portion of '10 did not bring back many resources. And quite frankly, we may have been actually a little too stingy at that, because then when we got into the beginning of '11, especially the first quarter, volumes were up 7%, and we started off the year pretty well. But then we got hit with a sequence of storms, and I think that really showed that we probably didn't bring the resources back as quickly as we needed to.

進入2010年時，Gary，我們非常注意不要比需要更快地把那些資源加回來。所以在2010年相當一段時間，我們沒有加回太多資源。坦白說，我們在這方面可能有點太節省了，因為到了2011年初，尤其第一季，運量成長了7%，我們年初開局不錯。但接著我們遭遇一連串風暴，我想那確實顯示我們可能沒有像需要的那樣快速把資源加回來。

So then as we went into the second quarter and especially the third quarter, what we were doing basically is restoring those resource levels to where they need to do to provide the service our customers needed. So that is why I think you saw our margins in both the third and fourth quarter somewhat less attractive. Because not only were we bringing the resources back, but the volumes really didn't behave as we expected them to in the fourth quarter.

因此到了第二季、尤其第三季，我們基本上是在把資源水準恢復到能提供客戶所需服務的程度。所以我認為你看到我們第三季與第四季的利潤率相對沒那麼吸引人。因為我們不僅在加回資源，而且第四季的運量表現也沒有如我們預期。

October and November were actually fairly weak. It rebounded in December, which was encouraging to us going into this year. So I think it is a matter of we were a little too tight in bringing back these resources quickly, and we had to correct that during the course of this year.

10月和11月其實相當疲弱。12月反彈，這讓我們對進入今年感到鼓舞。所以我認為問題在於我們在加回資源的速度上稍微太緊了，而今年過程中我們必須修正這點。

That being said, I think it puts us in a very good position going into '12 because we have those resources in place. We have capacities on both our merchandise and intermodal trains to where we can get back to those incremental margins that you like to see -- and we like to see, quite frankly -- and that are necessary to get to our goal of 65%.

話雖如此，我認為這讓我們在進入2012年時處於非常好的位置，因為我們已把那些資源配置到位。我們在一般貨運（merchandise）與聯運列車上都有運能，使我們能回到你們希望看到的——坦白說我們也希望看到的——那種增量利潤率，而這也是達成我們65%目標所必需的。

I would just add one very simple thing. In all that process over that course of time with those (technical difficulty) beyond the qualitative side, I think our teams have quantitatively and analytically understood what the driver is behind those issues.

我只補充一個很簡單的點。在那段時間的整個過程中，除了質性面之外，我認為我們的團隊也已在量化與分析上理解了那些問題背後的驅動因素（技術問題）。

So when Michael talks about we were a little too stingy on resources, we know the pivot points as to where we reach that threshold. So we now have a lot of science both on the downside, '09, and on the recovery. And I think that is exciting as we go through that.

所以當Michael說我們在資源上有點太節省時，我們知道臨界點在哪裡、也就是到什麼程度會觸及那個門檻。因此，無論是在下行的2009年，或在復甦階段，我們現在都有很多「科學化」的依據。我認為這在我們往前走時是令人振奮的。

Getting back to the qualitative side, our increasingly younger management team that is out there has got to experience both ups and downs, and that is critical in running an operation, because they have got to see both those sides. And that is going to bode well for us in the future.

回到質性面，我們外部越來越年輕的管理團隊，已經親身經歷過景氣的起伏，這對營運管理非常關鍵，因為他們必須看過兩種情境。而這將對我們未來非常有利。

To get to these incrementals, is volume required? Or is it a situation where you could decide to take down the absolute level of resources to get to that cost outcome if the volumes disappoint a little bit?

要達到這些增量（利潤率），是否需要運量？或者如果運量稍微不如預期，你們是否可以選擇降低資源的絕對水準，以達到那樣的成本結果？

Well, Gary, if the volumes aren't there, obviously we will adapt to that as we did in '10. I mean '10 -- '09? '09; sorry, they all meld together after a while.

Gary，如果運量不在，顯然我們會像2010年那樣去調整。我是說2010——2009？2009；抱歉，時間久了都混在一起。

So some of it depends what business it is. So stuff that is unit train in nature -- grain, coal, aggregates -- it is very easy to pull those resources out very quickly and we would if the markets weren't there.

所以其中一部分取決於是哪一種業務。像是單元列車（unit train）性質的——穀物、煤炭、砂石骨材——要很快把那些資源抽掉非常容易，如果市場不在，我們就會這麼做。

It is a little trickier in the scheduled networks of intermodal and merchandise. Small volume decreases you really can't do much; bigger ones you can.

但在聯運與一般貨運這種有固定班表的網路裡，就比較棘手。小幅的運量下滑你其實做不了太多；但如果下滑幅度較大，你是可以調整的。

All that being said, though, as Clarence stated and as we believe, we actually see the economy continuing to grow. We see ourselves growing faster than that economy. So we really think we are well positioned to handle that growth.

不過話說回來，正如Clarence所說、也如我們所相信的，我們其實看到經濟會持續成長。我們也看到自己會比整體經濟成長得更快。所以我們真的認為自己已做好準備來承接那樣的成長。

But again should it not be there, we will take the actions to adjust the resource levels.

但再說一次，如果情況不是如此，我們將採取行動來調整資源水準。

I think that is important. Our levers are price, volume, and productivity. So as we have shown before that we can do, we will pull on all of those. But volume, of course, is an important portion of that.

我認為這很重要。我們的槓桿是價格、運量與生產力。因此，正如我們先前所展示我們能做到的，我們會把這些槓桿都拉動。但當然，運量是其中很重要的一部分。

Okay. Thanks, everybody.

好的。謝謝各位。

Chris Wetherbee, Citi.

Chris Wetherbee，花旗。

Great. Good morning, guys. Maybe sticking on the expense side, Oscar, you highlighted that the first quarter headcount likely to be up less than 1% sequentially in the first quarter. Assuming the volume plan plays out as you would expect it for the full year, is that the absolute level of headcount that probably feels good for the volumes that you expect to move? Or how should we think about that as we go forward through the year?

很好。各位早安。也許延續費用面來看，Oscar，你提到第一季人頭數（員工數）按季可能增加不到1%。假設全年運量計畫如你預期般實現，這樣的員工總量是否大致適合你們預期要承接的運量水準？或者我們該如何看待接下來一年中的變化？

Again, as you can appreciate, with the economy still fluid and a lot of the questions (technical difficulty) we may need to adjust up or down. But right now our projection is that we would be up really only marginally above our year-end 2011 levels, and certainly less than on a one-to-one basis with regards to volume.

同樣地，如你所理解的，經濟仍在變動，且有許多問題（技術性困難），我們可能需要上調或下調。但目前我們的預測是，人頭數只會略高於2011年年底水準，而且就運量而言，增幅肯定不會是一比一對應。

Okay. I think I missed your cost inflation on that. If you could just remind me what the cost inflation was on the headcount basis. I think you highlighted it in your prepared remarks.

好的。我想我漏聽了你提到的人力成本通膨。你能否提醒我，以人頭數為基礎的成本通膨是多少？我記得你在事先準備的發言中有提到。

I think we said $15 million per quarter.

我想我們說的是每季1,500萬美元。

Okay. That's helpful. Then just a follow-up on the export coal side, it sounds like about 60% of the export coal has the opportunity for repricing normally on the April 1 coal year. Clarence, just trying to get a sense of, in a flattish type of environment -- or maybe some growth, maybe some declines -- how do you feel about the pricing opportunity for export coal as you move forward into the second quarter?

好的。這很有幫助。接著追問出口煤的部分，聽起來大約60%的出口煤通常有機會在4月1日煤炭年度進行重新定價。Clarence，我想了解的是，在一個大致持平的環境——或許有些成長、也可能有些下滑——你如何看待進入第二季後出口煤的定價機會？

Well, obviously, if the demand slackens some, the pricing opportunities that we have slacken some. But I think it is important to note that there is not a 100% direct correlation between the delivered price of the coal and what our transportation price is in the coal.

嗯，顯然，如果需求趨緩，我們的定價機會也會相對趨緩。但我認為重要的是要注意，煤炭到岸交付價格與我們在煤炭運輸上的運價之間，並非100%直接相關。

So, if the year pans out the way that we think it is going to pan out, we expect to have a year similar to what we had this past year.

因此，如果今年的走勢如我們所預期，我們預期今年會與去年相近。

Okay. So pricing up in that piece of the business. That's helpful. Thanks very much. I appreciate the time.

好的。所以那塊業務的價格是上行的。這很有幫助。非常感謝。感謝你撥冗。

Jason Seidl, Dahlman Rose.

Jason Seidl，Dahlman Rose。

Good morning, guys. Two quick questions sticking on a common theme here on both coal and intermodal. How much backlog do you guys have for steam export that was priced off of API2 in late 2010 and 2011? What percent should we be thinking about?

各位早安。兩個簡短問題，延續這裡煤炭與聯運（intermodal）的共同主題。你們有多少蒸汽煤出口的積壓訂單，是在2010年底與2011年依API2定價的？我們應該用什麼比例來思考？

Help me on the question. When you say backlog, you mean coal that has been sold but not shipped?

請再幫我釐清一下問題。你說的積壓訂單，是指已售出但尚未出貨的煤嗎？

Correct.

沒錯。

I don't know off the top of my -- I don't know.

我一時之間——我不知道。

Okay, so --

好的，那——

(multiple speakers) Clarence usually knows everything.

（多位發言者）Clarence通常什麼都知道。

Looks like I stumped him. Well, if you get the number, maybe you get back to me off-line.

看來我把他難倒了。如果你拿到數字，或許可以私下再回覆我。

On the next question, just help me through incremental margins on the intermodal product. As I have always understood it, intermodal business that goes on existing trains tends to actually have pretty high incremental margins, which is contrary to people's historical belief on the intermodal product.

下一個問題，請幫我理解聯運產品的增量毛利。我一直以來的理解是，跑在既有列車上的聯運業務，增量毛利其實相當高，這與市場對聯運產品的歷史看法相反。

Is that still the case as we think about some of this new Maersk business that is going on existing CSX trains?

在思考目前這些跑在既有CSX列車上的新馬士基（Maersk）業務時，情況仍是如此嗎？

It's Oscar, let me take that one if I could. You're absolutely right, and as Cindy mentioned, with the 15% to 20% capacity level, where we can we are filling up and lengthening trains.

我是Oscar，我來回答這題可以嗎。你說得完全正確；而且如Cindy提到的，在15%到20%的產能水準下，我們能做的是把列車裝滿並加長編組。

Of course, because it is a new customer, want to insurance service, we do have multiple train starts being supported. But yes, that incremental margins on the intermodal business is probably equal to some of the margins on some of our core business like coal.

當然，因為是新客戶，我們希望確保服務，因此也會支援多個新增開行的列車。但沒錯，聯運業務的增量毛利可能與我們一些核心業務（例如煤炭）的毛利相當。

Now, Oscar, what percent did you say goes on existing trains? Did you say it was over 50%? I'm not sure if you gave a number or not.

那Oscar，你說有多少比例是跑在既有列車上？你是說超過50%嗎？我不確定你是否有給出數字。

Sorry, we have 15% to 20% capacity on our existing network. Where we can, that Maersk business is going into that capacity.

抱歉，我們現有網路有15%到20%的產能。在可行之處，馬士基的業務會放進這些產能裡。

In addition, we are having train starts in certain origin/destination pairs, as you can imagine, where we didn't before. The percentage of between the two, I don't have an exact knowledge; but we work that into our network.

此外，如你所想像，在某些起訖配對上，我們也會新增開行列車，這是以前沒有的。兩者之間的比例我沒有精確掌握；但我們會把它納入網路規劃。

Guys, thanks for the time as always.

各位，一如往常謝謝你們撥冗。

Do you have a read on that? How much is incremental on trains and how much is new starts?

你有掌握嗎？有多少是加掛在既有列車上的增量，多少是新增開行？

Most of it, all except the New York/Chicago and the Portsmouth/Chicago went on incremental trains.

大部分都是；除了紐約/芝加哥與朴次茅斯/芝加哥之外，其餘都放在增量列車上。

But more than half's going on incremental trains.

但超過一半是放在增量列車上。

Oh, more than half? That is fantastic color. Thanks, guys. I appreciate it.

喔，超過一半？這個補充資訊非常好。謝謝各位。感謝。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

David Vernon，Bernstein。

Good morning. Can you talk a little bit about the average duration of utility coal contracts? How many maybe actually be coming up for renewal in 2012 and whether or not take-or-play -- or how the take-or-pay provisions of the utility contracts may have affected volumes last year?

早安。你能談談公用事業煤炭合約的平均期限嗎？2012年大概有多少合約會到期續約？以及「要麼承運要麼付費」（take-or-play）——或公用事業合約中的「要麼承運要麼付費」（take-or-pay）條款——去年如何影響運量？

David, there's a couple of answers to that. Yes, we do have take-or-pay provisions that impacted our utility contracts last year. And there were in fact liquidated damages paid. We have no major legacy contracts in our coal coming up for renewal in 2012.

David，這題有幾個面向。是的，我們確實有「要麼承運要麼付費」條款，去年對我們的公用事業合約造成影響。而且確實支付了約定損害賠償金（liquidated damages）。我們在煤炭業務中，2012年沒有任何主要的舊制（legacy）合約要到期續約。

But what about like an average duration? I would assume that some of the non-legacy staff would also be coming up in this coming year.

那平均期限呢？我想一些非舊制的合約也會在今年到期吧。

Well, I would prefer not to give you the average duration of our contracts with our customers, because of the market conditions on that.

嗯，基於當前市場狀況，我比較不希望提供我們與客戶合約的平均期限。

Okay.

好的。

It varies a lot.

差異很大。

And it varies, too; right.

而且也會變動；沒錯。

Okay. Then maybe just as a quick follow-up, to the extent the expectations of the volume for the Maersk business may have been priced on a backward-looking basis, are you still comfortable with the market is expecting on the volume growth side for the intermodal traffic you're going to get from Maersk, given the weakness in the international markets?

好的。那再快速追問一下：如果市場對馬士基業務的運量預期在定價上可能是以回顧性（backward-looking）的方式來估算，在國際市場疲弱的情況下，你們對市場預期的、來自馬士基的聯運運量成長仍然有信心嗎？

Yes, we are.

是的，我們有信心。

All right. Thanks.

好。謝謝。

John Larkin, Stifel Nicolaus.

John Larkin，Stifel Nicolaus。

Good morning, gentlemen. Could you help me understand why when you use the 13 to 13-week comparison volume is up only 1%, whereas if you use the AAR stats volume is up 4% year-over-year? That was a little confusing.

早安，各位先生。能否請您幫我理解一下：為什麼用 13 週對 13 週的比較時，運量只成長 1%，但若用 AAR 的統計，運量卻年增 4%？這點讓我有點困惑。

Hey, John, this is David. When you think about the AAR reported basis versus the CSX reported basis, the AAR data was actually based on a consistent 13-week period for both 2011 and 2010, which included the Christmas week.

嗨，John，我是 David。如果你比較 AAR 的報告口徑與 CSX 的報告口徑，AAR 的資料其實是以 2011 與 2010 兩年都採用一致的 13 週期間為基礎，而且包含了聖誕週。

When you look at our reported 1% on a comparable basis, what happens there is we in essence removed the 53rd week, which was the Christmas-New Year's week last year, which is a very weak year. That is the discrepancy between us being up 1% on our comparable basis versus the AAR being up close to 4% where the Christmas week is included in both periods.

而你看到我們以可比口徑所報告的 1% 成長，實際上我們等於把去年的第 53 週移除掉，也就是聖誕到新年那一週；那一週非常疲弱。因此才會出現差異：我們在可比口徑下成長 1%，而 AAR 因為兩個期間都包含聖誕週，所以接近成長 4%。

You can give him the detail of that conversation or calculation off-line, if he wishes.

如果他願意，你可以在會後再把那段對話或計算細節提供給他。

Yes, I can certainly do that. Thank you, Michael.

好的，我當然可以。謝謝你，Michael。

All right. Thanks, Mike and David. Then one other maybe for Oscar. You had provided some insight as to what the operating ratio for the full year would have been without increased fuel cost and the surcharge effect. Do you have a similar estimate for the fourth quarter?

好。謝謝，Mike 和 David。那另外還有一個問題可能想問 Oscar。你先前提供過一些看法：如果沒有燃料成本上升以及燃油附加費的影響，全年營運比率會是多少。那你對第四季有沒有類似的估算？

Yes, it would have been about 30 basis points. So maybe we would have been 71.2%.

有，大約會差 30 個基點。所以我們可能會是 71.2%。

Got it. Thanks very much.

了解了。非常感謝。

Peter Nesvold, Jefferies.

Jefferies 的 Peter Nesvold。

Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered. Maybe just a little bit of color on yields in phosphates and fertilizers which were -- took a step down; and then metals, which took a big step up. Just want to make sure I am modeling this right going forward.

早安。我大部分的問題都已經得到解答了。也許想請你多補充一點：磷酸鹽與肥料的單位收益（yield）似乎下滑了一步；而金屬則大幅上升。我只是想確認一下，往後建模時我是否抓對方向。

Peter, the yield in the phosphate and fertilizer is directly related to our mix, so you get involved in the short-haul phosphate that is going to the export piers at Rockport for export.

Peter，磷酸鹽與肥料的單位收益，直接與我們的貨量組合（mix）有關；也就是你會遇到一些短程運輸的磷酸鹽，運到 Rockport 的出口碼頭再出口。

In the case of our metals franchise, as you saw our volumes went up in our metals business pretty strongly. So we simply took those covered coal cars and all that are in short supply and priced at market, took the rates up.

至於我們的金屬業務，如你所見，我們金屬業務的運量成長相當強勁。因此我們就把那些有蓋煤車（covered coal cars）等短缺的車輛，以市場價格定價，把運價提高。

So it sounds like the metals one might be arguably sustainable since auto production has been improving. The phosphate and ferts one might be a little bit more temporary?

所以聽起來，金屬這塊可能相對可持續，因為汽車產量一直在改善。而磷酸鹽與肥料這塊可能比較偏短期？

That's right.

沒錯。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，很棒。謝謝。

Matt Troy, Susquehanna Financial.

Susquehanna Financial 的 Matt Troy。

Good morning. Two questions. I guess one, obviously, Clarence I always appreciate your very astute read on the economy.

早安。兩個問題。第一個，我想很明顯地，Clarence，我一直很欣賞你對經濟的敏銳判讀。

Just curious; we have seen some weakness in chemicals recently across the industry. Yours held up relatively well. Just wanted to get a sense of, on the chemical front were you hearing about either destocking or inventory levels being okay, or an intent to restock?

我只是好奇：我們最近看到全產業的化學品有些疲弱。你們的表現相對撐得住。想請教在化學品這一塊，你們是否聽到有去庫存（destocking）、或庫存水位其實還好、或有意圖要補庫存（restock）？

And then more broadly, what is your sense of optimism and intention with your customers in terms of restocking across other industries in 2012?

另外更廣泛地，你對 2012 年客戶在其他產業的補庫存意願與樂觀程度，有什麼看法？

You know, Matt, I was looking at some numbers yesterday, and for the last 12 months the inventory numbers that have come out from the Institute of Supply Management have been at one constant number. That inventory number has been 1.27; and it has been pretty much like that for 12 months.

你知道的，Matt，我昨天在看一些數字，過去 12 個月供應管理協會（Institute of Supply Management）公布的庫存數據一直維持在同一個固定數值。那個庫存數值是 1.27；而且 12 個月幾乎都差不多。

So somebody has reached a new norm and has decided I'm not going to keep a lot of inventory around in my warehouses, and I am going to order it and keep the logistics -- keep it in the logistics pipeline when I need it.

所以看起來有人已經達到一個新的常態，並決定：我不會在倉庫裡放太多庫存；我需要時再下單，並把物流——把貨放在物流管線裡。

Chemicals side of our business, what we are seeing happening for chemical companies is, because of the low natural gas prices and the fact that the US plastics markets is predicated on chemicals, natural gas -- as opposed to the rest of the world, which as you know is on petroleum products -- the US chemical industry has been very competitive on a worldwide basis.

就我們化學品業務而言，我們看到化工公司正在發生的情況是：由於天然氣價格偏低，而且美國塑膠市場是以化學品、天然氣為基礎——相較於世界其他地區，如你所知多以石油產品為基礎——美國化工產業在全球範圍內非常有競爭力。

That doesn't necessarily help CSX per se; but it does help our chemical customers. They use -- a lot of that is exported out of Texas ports and out of the Gulf ports directly into the world, so we don't see as much as probably we should see about it.

這不一定會直接幫到 CSX 本身；但確實有利於我們的化工客戶。他們——其中很大一部分會從德州港口與墨西哥灣港口直接出口到全球，所以我們看到的量沒有我們可能「應該」看到的那麼多。

The good news is long-term what is good for our customers is good for us.

好消息是，長期來看，對客戶好的事，對我們也會是好事。

Right. So is it fair to characterize the broader destocking or inventory policy as kind of a wait and see?

了解。所以把更廣泛的去庫存或庫存政策形容為「觀望」算合理嗎？

I think so.

我想是的。

Okay. Thank you. My second question would simply be just a straightforward one. In terms of the percentage of contracts that are booked for 2012, what percentage of your revenues is now on paper with the ink dry?

好的。謝謝。第二個問題很直接。就 2012 年已簽訂的合約比例而言，你們目前有多少百分比的營收已經白紙黑字確定了？

70%.

70%。

All right. Thank you, sir.

好。謝謝您，先生。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

Good morning. Thanks very much for taking my call. Just a couple questions.

早安。非常感謝接聽我的電話。我有幾個問題。

Maybe, Clarence, you could give us a little bit of color. You noted that 71% of your revenue or your volumes are in the favorable camp. Can you pick out one or two here that really give you the most guess -- you get excited about the most? If we were to characterize some as a little bit more heady growth than others, which ones would you pick out there?

也許，Clarence，你可以多給我們一些補充說明。你提到你們 71% 的營收或運量都屬於有利的一方。你能挑出其中一兩項，讓你最有把握——最讓你感到興奮的嗎？如果要把某些項目形容為成長動能更強，你會挑哪幾個？

I think our automotive industry is in a very positive growth situation. The industry itself is projected to be at 13.8 million vehicles and light vehicle production. There are some analysts -- more than not -- that think that number could be a little low and could go up.

我認為汽車產業正處於非常正向的成長態勢。整個產業預估汽車與輕型車產量將達到 1,380 萬輛。有一些分析師——而且多數——認為這個數字可能偏低，還可能上修。

For us in particular, a huge growth opportunity for us this year we are going to be very proud of is our intermodal franchise. We have business now under contract with seven of the 10 largest steamship lines in the world, with four of the largest motor carrier operations in North America.

就我們而言，今年一個巨大的成長機會、我們會非常引以為傲的，是我們的聯運（intermodal）業務。我們目前已與全球前十大航運公司中的七家簽訂合約，也與北美四家最大的汽車運輸承運商（motor carrier）營運商簽約。

Our IMC community, intermodal marketing companies that we do business with, is very strong. The connections that we have with the Western carriers are all positive in our intermodal business. So there's two that we feel very strongly about.

我們合作的 IMC 社群，也就是聯運行銷公司（intermodal marketing companies），實力非常強。我們與西部鐵路業者的連結，在聯運業務上都是正向的。所以這兩項是我們非常有信心的。

And then it is a little too soon right now, Walter, to tell, but as we start looking to see what the crops are going to look like this spring and this summer that, too, could be a very positive thing for us.

另外，Walter，現在說還有點太早，但當我們開始觀察今年春夏作物的情況時，那也可能會對我們非常有利。

Okay. That's great color. And sticking with you, Clarence, the service levels were a challenge last year. You have done a great job already; we see it in the numbers. So congrats to your operations team on the success there.

好的。這些補充很有幫助。再請教你，Clarence，去年服務水準是一個挑戰。你們已經做得非常好；我們從數據中也看得出來。所以也恭喜你們營運團隊在這方面的成功。

I am just wondering, Clarence, how does that feed into your customer perception of that service? In other words, did they let you hear it last year when it came to those service levels? And are you seeing them -- seeing that reception change with regards to the conversation you are having with your customers on that service standpoint?

我只是想知道，Clarence，這如何影響你們客戶對該服務的觀感？換句話說，去年在那些服務水準方面，他們有沒有直接向你們反映？而且就你們在服務層面與客戶溝通的情況來看，你是否看到他們——看到那種反應有所改變？

I will give you two answers to that. The first question was -- did our customers let us know when our service got bad? Every day.

我可以給你兩個答案。第一個問題是——我們的服務變差時，客戶有沒有讓我們知道？每天都有。

Number two is, have they seen a difference in it? And they started seeing that difference in it actually last fall. There is a time lag in our business with -- when things start getting better before people see it. But we were really moving out.

第二個是，他們有沒有看到差異？他們其實在去年秋天就開始看到差異了。我們這個行業存在時間落差——事情開始改善後，人們要過一段時間才看得出來。但我們確實是在大幅改善。

We just had a customer advisory council meeting a couple of weeks ago here in Jacksonville where we bring in some of our customers, both large, small, and medium, and talk about issues. And they had nothing but glowing remarks to make about Cindy and her team.

我們幾週前才在傑克遜維爾（Jacksonville）這裡開了一場客戶諮詢委員會會議，邀請一些客戶來，包含大型、小型與中型客戶，一起討論議題。他們對 Cindy 和她的團隊只有滿滿的讚美。

We have several internal initiatives that we kicked off to improve our service. All of them getting positive response from within our Company from the ground level up to the ballast level, the men and women that actually make this place work.

我們啟動了幾項內部計畫來改善服務。所有計畫都從公司內部獲得正面回饋，從基層一路到道碴層（ballast level），也就是那些真正讓這個地方運作起來的男男女女。

So to Oscar's point earlier today, our operations team is extremely strong.

所以呼應 Oscar 今天稍早的觀點，我們的營運團隊非常強。

That's great, and congratulations on a turnaround. I think that is pretty encouraging. That is both my questions. Thanks very much.

太好了，也恭喜你們成功扭轉局面。我覺得這相當令人鼓舞。以上就是我的兩個問題。非常感謝。

Ben Hartford with Baird.

Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Good morning. I think this question is for Cindy. To what extent -- if volumes were to come back specifically on the domestic coal side quicker than expected, or if we were to experience positive growth in that commodity, some of the resources that you have redeployed into other networks, to what extent can you return those resources back to service the domestic coal business?

早安。我想這個問題是問 Cindy 的。如果運量回升——特別是國內煤炭這一塊——比預期更快，或是該商品出現正成長，你們先前調度到其他網路的一些資源，在多大程度上可以再調回來以服務國內煤炭業務？

And maybe alternatively, how much do you have in the way of furloughed equipment and access to other equipment if volumes were to rebound more quickly than expected?

或者換個問法，如果運量反彈比預期更快，你們目前有多少停用（furloughed）的設備，以及可取得的其他設備？

Thanks, Ben. We have the ability to redeploy people, locomotives, and of course crews to handle the unit train network. As you know domestic coal is a unit train business, and if we needed to be able to do that we have the capacity to do that fairly well.

謝謝你，Ben。我們有能力重新調度人員、機車，當然也包括乘務組（crews），以支援整列列車（unit train）網路。如你所知，國內煤炭是整列列車的業務，如果需要，我們有相當不錯的能力來做到。

At the present time, since domestic coal is moving throughout our network as opposed to specific lanes like maybe export coal, we have not needed to make any adjustments to headcount at this point or manpower at this point. But if we need to we will, and we think we are able to handle what is coming our way and any more fairly readily well.

目前，由於國內煤炭是在我們整個網路中運行，而不是像出口煤那樣集中在特定路徑（lanes），所以到目前為止我們不需要對人頭數或人力做任何調整。但如果需要，我們會做；我們也認為我們能相當迅速且妥善地應對即將到來的需求，以及更多的需求。

And, Cindy, don't we have about 70 locomotives in active storage you could pull out very quickly? We would love to have that problem, Ben, and we would be able to handle it.

而且，Cindy，我們不是有大約 70 台機車在主動封存（active storage）中，可以很快拉出來用嗎？Ben，我們很希望遇到這種問題，我們也有能力處理。

We would --

我們會——

Sure.

當然。

(multiple speakers) We have 70 locomotives in storage still.

（多位發言者）我們仍有 70 台機車在封存中。

And what is the count on furloughed conductors, if any?

那麼被停職留用（furloughed）的列車長（conductors）人數是多少？如果有的話。

None at this time.

目前沒有。

None? Okay. Great. Thank you.

沒有？好。很好。謝謝。

Jeff Kauffman, Sterne, Agee.

Sterne, Agee 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Hey, guys, thanks. I know it has been a long call. Thanks for taking my call. Oscar, Fred, congratulations.

嗨，各位，謝謝。我知道這通電話很長。謝謝你們接我的問題。Oscar、Fred，恭喜。

Two quick questions. The first may be more for Cindy. I see your on-time originations up to 82%, which is fantastic, but your on-time arrivals still in that 72% range. What is accounting for that difference, and what does it take to get back to the 78%, 79% arrival range?

兩個很快的問題。第一個可能比較是問 Cindy。我看到你們準點發車（on-time originations）提升到 82%，非常棒，但準點到達（on-time arrivals）仍在 72% 左右。造成這個差異的原因是什麼？要如何回到 78%、79% 的到達率區間？

Well, as I mentioned in our presentation, all of our service measurements look extremely strong, both the ones we are displaying here and our internal ones as well. So we feel really good about the momentum that we have, that we have been able to drive from the third and into the fourth quarter.

嗯，如同我在簡報中提到的，我們所有的服務衡量指標都非常強勁，包含我們在這裡展示的，以及我們內部的指標。所以我們對目前的動能感到非常有信心——我們已經能把這股動能從第三季一路推進到第四季。

As far as the arrivals specifically, that is a measurement we will continue to work on. I think it is still in front of us, as the rest of our measurements are, to continue our great progress in maintaining our service at very high levels.

至於到達率這個指標，我們會持續努力。我認為它仍是我們接下來要持續改善的項目之一；就像其他指標一樣，我們會繼續保持很大的進展，讓服務維持在非常高的水準。

That is about a 10-point gap between originations and arrivals. I'd tell you historically, Jeff, the best we have probably done is something in a 6% to 7% gap. I think as we move through this year, we will probably move more toward that kind of spread.

發車與到達之間大約有 10 個百分點的落差。Jeff，我可以告訴你，從歷史來看，我們做得最好的時候，落差大概是 6% 到 7%。我想隨著今年推進，我們可能會更接近那樣的差距。

Okay. Then one quick follow-up on the coal pricing. I know a lot of guys hit it. If the API price is flat versus where it was, say, 12 months ago right now, and the coal mine prices are down, are you basically implying that there is not as much pressure on the rail rate portion of that? Since the mines are bearing more the brunt of the API difference.

了解。接著針對煤炭定價再追問一個。我知道很多人都問到這點。如果 API 價格相較於例如 12 個月前現在是持平，而煤礦端價格下滑，你們基本上是在暗示鐵路運價那一部分承受的壓力沒那麼大嗎？因為煤礦端承擔了更多 API 差異的衝擊。

That's what we are implying, is that there is less volatility in the transportation rates. There is some now; I don't want to mislead you. There is some. But not to the extent that it is on the commodity price itself.

我們的意思是，運輸費率的波動性較小。現在仍然有一些；我不想誤導你。確實有一些。但不像商品價格本身那麼劇烈。

We didn't get the run-up they did during the (technical difficulty)

我們沒有像他們那樣在（技術問題）期間出現那波大幅上漲。

That's right.

沒錯。

Right, right. You didn't get the heavy run-up either. So I just wanted to imply that you are saying the rail rates are holding reasonably steady.

對，對。你們也沒有出現那種大幅飆升。所以我只是想確認，你的意思是鐵路運價大致維持相對穩定。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, all right. Thanks, guys. Congratulations.

好，了解。謝謝各位。恭喜。

Anthony Gallo, Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo 的 Anthony Gallo。

Good morning. Thank you. I want to refer to Oscar's slide 32. If I look at the cost run rate in the fourth quarter versus the first three quarters, I come up with about $91 million of difference. Is that the right way to think about the cost associated with being under-resourced?

早安。謝謝。我想參考 Oscar 的第 32 張投影片。如果我看第四季的成本運行率（run rate）相較於前三季，我算出大約有 9,100 萬美元的差異。把這樣的差異視為資源不足所造成的相關成本，這樣理解對嗎？

I think I would use more -- it is tough to figure out all the points. I would think a better barometer is probably on the operating productivity side chart that Cindy had, which is more like in the $50 million to $60 million.

我想我會用更——要把所有點都算清楚很難。我認為更好的衡量方式可能是 Cindy 那張營運生產力（operating productivity）圖表，那個數字比較像是 5,000 萬到 6,000 萬美元。

Again there is a lot of math that goes between the two, but I would go more with the $60 million than what is on this chart. This includes a whole host of other items; some are unique, some are not. I think the productivity measure is the more of the one that emphasizes how we are running as an operating Company.

同樣地，兩者之間有很多計算因素，但我會更採用 6,000 萬美元，而不是這張圖表上的數字。這裡包含了很多其他項目；有些是一次性的，有些不是。我認為生產力指標更能強調我們作為一家營運型公司是如何運作的。

Okay, so when we think about your comment about first-half 2011 incremental margins, we can use that as sort of a placeholder to maybe think about a more normalized number?

了解，所以當我們思考你對 2011 年上半年增量利潤率（incremental margins）的評論時，我們可以把那個數字當作某種暫時的參考，用來推估一個更正常化的水準？

Yes, I think you could.

是的，我想你可以。

Okay, then the last question. The $130 million targeted of productivity improvements, how much of that is volume leverage and how much of that is actually cost coming out of the system?

好，那最後一個問題。目標為1.30億美元的生產力改善，其中有多少來自量增帶來的槓桿效益（volume leverage），又有多少是真正從系統中把成本移除？

I will take that one. This is Cindy. The $130 million productivity amount is expected with the volume increases that we expect to see in 2012. So we feel very good about the areas that we have targeted. We have good, solid plans in place to execute.

我來回答這題。我是Cindy。這1.30億美元的生產力金額，是預期會隨著我們在2012年預計看到的運量增加而實現。因此，我們對已鎖定的領域非常有信心。我們已經有良好且扎實的計畫來執行。

But it all comes from basically volume growth?

但基本上都來自運量成長嗎？

No.

不是。

No, no, the opposite. The opposite. The opposite. We should --

不，不，正好相反。正好相反。正好相反。我們應該——

Obviously we get some efficiencies from running more volume through there; and then we have actions that reduce the cost regardless of the volume.

顯然，運量跑得更多會帶來一些效率；另外我們也有一些行動，不論運量多寡都能降低成本。

Correct.

沒錯。

Do you have a feel of the percentage between those two buckets?

你對這兩個類別之間的比例有概念嗎？

No, not off the top of my head, Mike.

沒有，我一時想不起來，Mike。

Anthony, I'm sorry. We don't have a good answer on that.

Anthony，抱歉。我們沒有一個好的答案。

That's okay. Fair enough. Thank you, gentlemen. Thank you.

沒關係。可以理解。謝謝，各位先生。謝謝。

Neal Deaton, BB&T Capital Markets.

Neal Deaton，BB&T資本市場。

Hey, good morning. All my questions have been answered. Thanks.

嗨，早安。我所有問題都已經被回答了。謝謝。

Okay. Thank you for your interest.

好的。感謝你的關注。

But I will reflect on the last question on productivity. To be clear, I know that was a little maybe unclear. Our productivity measure are cost driven. It is the concept, the math behind it is doing more things with similar resources, or a similar volume with less resources. That is how the math and algorithms are built in.

不過我想回到剛才關於生產力的最後一個問題再補充一下。說清楚一點，我知道剛才可能有點不夠明確。我們的生產力衡量是以成本為驅動。其概念與背後的數學是：用相近的資源做更多事情，或用更少的資源完成相近的量。這就是我們建立相關數學模型與演算法的方式。

So it is a cost-driven function. There are efficiencies and all that, but the $130 million is a cost take (multiple speakers).

所以它是一個以成本驅動的函數。當然也有效率等等，但這1.30億美元是成本削減（多位發言者）。

(multiple speakers) dollars coming (multiple speakers)

（多位發言者）美元正在（多位發言者）

(technical difficulty) dollars coming out across a host of departments.

（技術問題）美元正在從多個部門中削減出來。

Keith Schoonmaker, Morningstar.

Keith Schoonmaker，Morningstar。

Thanks. Regulation compliance is pulling about 12% of budgeted CapEx for this year, somewhere north of, I guess, $250 million. How will this increase in the next couple years as we get closer to the PTC implementation deadline?

謝謝。法規遵循約占今年預算資本支出（CapEx）的12%，金額大概超過——我猜——2.50億美元。隨著我們接近PTC實施期限，未來幾年這個比例會如何增加？

And second if no PTC was required would you reduce CapEx or deploy this capital elsewhere? And I guess if the latter, what is being displaced?

第二，如果不需要PTC，你們會降低資本支出，還是把這筆資金部署到其他地方？如果是後者，會排擠掉哪些項目？

Well, Keith, let me address that. So, one, we're going to spend well over $1 billion deploying this over the next few years. I think our estimates this year -- about $250 million we're going to be spending this year on that. Probably similar amounts over the next several years.

Keith，我來回應一下。第一，我們在未來幾年部署這個系統的支出將遠超過10億美元。我想我們今年的估計——大約2.50億美元，我們今年會花在這上面。接下來幾年大概也會是類似的金額。

There is some possibility -- I think there is no possibility this will not be there. It's the law. I don't think there is momentum to repeal that law.

有一些可能性——我認為其實沒有可能它不會存在。這是法律規定。我不認為有動能去廢除那項法律。

So we will be spending those monies. There is some possibility that the time to implement will be extended beyond 2015.

所以我們會花這些錢。有一些可能性是，實施時間可能會延長到2015年之後。

The FRA has to give a report to the Congress in I think it is March of this year -- March 1, actually. To say, where is the industry on the implementation of this? As a matter of fact, we are meeting with the FRA Administrator Szabo tomorrow as an industry.

FRA必須向國會提交一份報告，我想是在今年3月——其實是3月1日。說明整個產業在這項實施上的進度如何。事實上，我們明天將以產業的身分與FRA署長Szabo會面。

Our view at CSX is that given the complications with developing the new technology and the delay in receipt of some of those new technologies, that it is unlikely that 2015 will be achievable and that there will be a need to extend that deadline just because it cannot be implemented in that time frame. We would hope the FRA would have a similar view and recommend to Congress that that timeline be extended, which obviously would make it easier to do a more orderly implementation of it.

CSX的看法是，鑑於開發新技術的複雜性，以及部分新技術交付延遲，2015年不太可能達成；需要延長期限，因為在那個時間框架內無法完成實施。我們希望FRA也能有類似看法，並建議國會延長時程；這顯然會讓我們更容易以更有秩序的方式來推動實施。

On the question of what is being, in effect, pushed out by the PTC, obviously I think we would be doing additional purchase of certain car types; probably buy a few more locomotives; maybe a little bit more into our track structure. So we have had to trim each of those back some to accommodate this and stay within the 18% of our revenues which we are going to spend over the next few years through 2015.

至於PTC實際上排擠了哪些支出，顯然我想我們本來會額外採購某些車種；可能會多買幾台機車；也可能在軌道結構上多投入一些。因此，我們不得不在這些項目上做一些縮減，以便容納這項支出，並在未來幾年到2015年期間，把支出控制在我們營收的18%以內。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Donald Broughton, Avondale Partners.

Donald Broughton，Avondale Partners。

Good morning, Michael. This may be the most lay-up question I have ever given you.

早安，Michael。這可能是我問過你最簡單的一個問題。

Good. Please.

很好。請說。

If what I just heard you say holds -- the opposite holds true and instead they say no, you must get your PTC in place by 2015, we would see -- I am guessing -- a significant ramp over the current PTC spend you're making right now.

如果我剛才聽到你說的情況成立——反過來成立——而他們改口說不，你們必須在2015年前把PTC建置到位，那我們將會看到——我猜——相較於你們目前的PTC支出會有顯著加速上升。

No, actually, we are doing some of the preparatory work that we have to do to our locomotives and to our signal systems. We are doing what we can absent the technology being ready yet.

不，其實我們正在做一些必須先行完成的準備工作，包含機車與號誌系統。在技術尚未就緒之前，我們能做的都在做。

So for instance, we know how big the component is going to be on the locomotive, so we are making the space to plug it in when it comes. So we are spending the money to be ready.

例如，我們知道機車上的元件會有多大，所以我們先預留空間，等它到位時就能直接插入。所以我們是在花錢把準備工作做好。

If they said it must be by 2015, we are working to have it done by 2015. However, there may be certain components that are being developed that will not be available in time to be deployed. And if that is the case, they can insist all they want we make 2015; it is not going to be practically possible because the devices won't be available.

如果他們說必須在2015年前完成，我們也正朝2015年前完成的目標在做。不過，可能有某些正在開發的元件，無法及時供應以進行部署。如果是那樣，他們再怎麼堅持我們要在2015年完成，實務上也不可能，因為設備根本還沒到位。

Okay. So at this juncture the holdback would not be money or the workers to put it in place; it would be the actual technology.

了解。所以在這個時間點，限制因素不是資金或安裝的人力，而是實際的技術本身。

We hired roughly 500 people to help with signal installation last year. That work is going on this year.

我們去年大約雇用了500人來協助號誌安裝。這項工作今年仍在進行。

We are certainly going to spend the money. It is the law. We are going to obey the law.

我們當然會花這筆錢。這是法律。我們會遵守法律。

The issue is the technology being developed is not coming as quickly as one would hope.

問題在於，正在開發的技術進展沒有如人所願那麼快。

Thanks. That's helpful insight.

謝謝。這些見解很有幫助。

Thank you. That concludes the question-and-answer session. I will turn the call back over to the speakers.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我把電話交回給發言人。

Well, thank you all for your interest and attention, and we certainly appreciate all the good questions this morning. We'll see you next quarter.

好的，感謝各位的關注與聆聽，我們也非常感謝今天早上的所有好問題。我們下個季度見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛斷電話線。