CSX Corporation (CSX) 2012 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation third-quarter 2012 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2012 年第三季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。在本次會議期間，所有與會者將以僅收聽模式參與。

For opening remarks and introduction I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。

Thank you, Lori, and good morning, everyone, and welcome again to CSX Corporation third-quarter 2012 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we will be reviewing this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the Investors section. In addition, following the presentation, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on that same website.

謝謝你，Lori，各位早安，再次歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2012 年第三季財報簡報。我們今天早上將要檢視的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可在 CSX.com 網站「投資人」專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，同一網站也將提供網路直播與播客的重播。

Here representing CSX this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer.

今天早上代表 CSX 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。

Now before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide two. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements and risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報及公司所做的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露事項。該揭露說明了前瞻性陳述，以及可能導致實際表現與這些陳述所預期結果產生重大差異的風險與不確定性。

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With now 30 analysts covering CSX, I would ask as a courtesy for everyone to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question.

另外也提醒各位，簡報結束後我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。目前有 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，為了禮貌起見，請各位將提問限制為一個主要問題與一個追問。

With that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

接下來，我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Well, thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Last evening, CSX reported third-quarter earnings per share of $0.44 versus $0.43 in the same period last year, despite continued headwinds in coal and an economy that is growing more moderately.

好的，謝謝你，David。各位早安。昨晚，CSX 公布第三季每股盈餘為 0.44 美元，去年同期為 0.43 美元，儘管煤炭業務持續面臨逆風，且經濟成長趨於溫和。

As Clarence will review in more detail, revenues were down 2% on lower volume and fuel recovery as well as an unfavorable mix that continues to be significant. At the same time, lower revenues were partially offset by the outstanding efforts of our operating team. As Oscar will discuss further, we continue to adjust to near-term market conditions while staying focused on building our capabilities for the long-term.

如 Clarence 將更詳細說明，營收因運量下滑與燃油回收減少，以及不利的產品組合（其影響仍相當顯著）而下降 2%。同時，營收下滑部分被我們營運團隊的傑出努力所抵銷。如 Oscar 將進一步討論，我們在持續因應短期市場狀況的同時，仍專注於建立長期能力。

As a result, despite substantial headwinds we saw externally, operating income declined just 3% to $854 million. In addition, our operating ratio held stable at 70.5% and Fredrik will provide you the complete financial analysis for the quarter. Bottom line, we are encouraged by how this team is dealing with market conditions that are far from ideal. Long-term, this bodes well for what CSX will be able to accomplish when sustainable growth resumes.

因此，儘管外部存在相當大的逆風，營業利益僅下降 3% 至 8.54 億美元。此外，我們的營運比率維持穩定在 70.5%，Fredrik 將為各位提供本季完整的財務分析。總結來說，我們對這個團隊在遠非理想的市場環境下的應對方式感到鼓舞。長期而言，當可持續成長恢復時，這將有利於 CSX 能夠達成的成果。

With that, I will turn it over to Clarence to talk about our top-line results. Clarence?

接下來我把時間交給 Clarence，談談我們的營收（top-line）表現。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Turning to slide six, leading indicators continued to predict moderating growth for the US economy for the balance of the year. Looking at the left side of the chart, projected GDP and IDP rates indicate weak growth and discussions with many of CSX's customers support this broad assessment of the economy.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。請看第 6 頁，領先指標持續預示美國經濟在今年剩餘期間將呈現趨緩成長。從圖表左側來看，預估的 GDP 與 IDP 成長率顯示成長疲弱，而我們與許多 CSX 客戶的討論也支持對整體經濟的這項廣泛評估。

On the right, the Purchasing Managers Index registered a reading of 51.5 in September, indicating a slight expansion of US manufacturing. At the same time, the Customer Inventories Index registered a reading of 49.5, indicating that respondents believe their inventories are still slightly below normal levels. Overall, transportation demand in the markets we serve was mixed in the third quarter consistent with the broader economic environment.

在右側，採購經理人指數（PMI）9 月為 51.5，顯示美國製造業小幅擴張。同時，客戶庫存指數為 49.5，表示受訪者認為其庫存水準仍略低於正常。整體而言，我們所服務市場在第三季的運輸需求表現分歧，與更廣泛的經濟環境一致。

And now let us take a look at the overall revenue. Total third-quarter revenue of nearly $2.9 billion was 2% lower compared to last year, reflecting continued headwinds in coal and a more moderate economic environment. Starting at the left of the chart, volume-related revenue had an unfavorable impact of $31 million in the quarter as volume growth in export coal, automotive, and intermodal was more than offset by the significant decline in domestic coal.

接著我們來看整體營收。第三季總營收接近 29 億美元，較去年下降 2%，反映煤炭業務持續逆風以及較為溫和的經濟環境。從圖表左側開始，與運量相關的營收在本季帶來 3,100 萬美元的不利影響，因出口煤、汽車與聯運的運量成長，仍被國內煤炭的大幅下滑所抵銷。

Moving to the right, the combined effect of rate and mix was $14 million unfavorable. Here, the benefit of poor pricing gains was more than offset by the unfavorable mix associated with higher intermodal growth and declining coal volume. Finally, fuel recovery decreased $24 million in the quarter.

往右看，運價與組合的合併影響為不利 1,400 萬美元。在此，較佳的定價收益所帶來的好處，仍被聯運成長較高與煤炭運量下滑所造成的不利組合所抵銷。最後，燃油回收在本季減少 2,400 萬美元。

Now let's turn to pricing. Core pricing on a same-store sales basis remained solid across nearly all markets. Recall that same-store sales are defined as shipments with the same customer, commodity, and car type and the same origin and destination. These shipments represent approximately 75% of CSX's traffic base.

現在我們來談定價。以同店銷售基礎計算的核心定價，在幾乎所有市場仍維持穩健。提醒各位，同店銷售定義為：相同客戶、商品與車種，且起訖地相同的運輸貨件。這些貨件約占 CSX 運量基礎的 75%。

Looking at the chart, consolidated pricing, shown as the blue bars, includes all shipments. On this basis, pricing increased 1.5% in the third quarter. The sequential decline through the year has largely been driven by rate reductions in export coal where pricing is impacted by changing conditions in the global market.

從圖表來看，以藍色長條呈現的合併定價包含所有貨件。在此基礎上，第三季定價上升 1.5%。今年以來逐季下滑主要是由出口煤的運價下調所驅動，而出口煤定價會受到全球市場條件變化的影響。

The gold bars, which exclude export coal, show pricing gains of 3.7% in the quarter exceeding rail inflation and stable with what we saw in the second quarter. Pricing was higher in the first quarter as we cycled several significant contract signings from 2011. Looking forward, the strong service product that CSX is delivering to customers and the relative value of rail transportation provides a solid foundation for pricing above rail inflation long term.

金色長條排除出口煤後，顯示本季定價成長 3.7%，高於鐵路通膨，且與第二季所見水準相當。第一季定價較高，因為我們在比較基期中消化了 2011 年數筆重要合約簽訂的影響。展望未來，CSX 提供給客戶的強勁服務產品，以及鐵路運輸的相對價值，為長期定價高於鐵路通膨提供了穩固基礎。

Looking to the next slide let's take a closer look at the volume. Total volume declined 1% in the quarter versus the same period last year and performance across the markets we serve was mixed. Export coal volume increased 20% year over year but growth rates slowed from the pace in the first half.

接著看下一頁，我們更仔細地檢視運量。本季總運量較去年同期下降 1%，我們所服務的各市場表現分歧。出口煤運量年增 20%，但成長率較上半年放緩。

Both intermodal and the industrial sector continued to see robust growth in the quarter, generally consistent with what we saw in the first half. The agricultural and construction sectors remain challenged with these sectors declining 4% and 5%, respectively. Finally, domestic coal declined 26%, although the rate of decline moderated from what we saw in the second quarter.

聯運與工業部門在本季持續呈現強勁成長，整體上與上半年所見趨勢一致。農業與建築部門仍面臨挑戰，分別下滑 4% 與 5%。最後，國內煤炭下滑 26%，不過下滑幅度較第二季有所趨緩。

Now let's look at the individual markets in more detail starting with coal.

現在我們從煤炭開始，更詳細地看看各個個別市場。

Coal revenue declined 17% to $791 million. Domestic volume declined 26% as natural gas prices remained low, leading to the continued displacement of coal at many utilities. In addition, electrical generation declined in the eastern United States.

煤炭營收下降 17% 至 7.91 億美元。國內運量下降 26%，因天然氣價格仍維持低檔，導致許多公用事業持續以天然氣取代煤炭。此外，美國東部地區的發電量也有所下降。

Partially offsetting this weakness, export coal volume grew 20% as demand for US thermal coal remains strong. Total revenue per unit declined 1% as a result of lower export rates which more than offset core pricing gains in domestic markets. Looking ahead, export coal volume is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, although second-half and full-year volume will grow on a year-over-year basis.

在一定程度上抵銷這項疲弱的是，出口煤炭運量成長20%，因為美國動力煤需求仍然強勁。由於出口運價較低，使得單位總營收下滑1%，其影響超過了國內市場核心定價的提升。展望未來，第四季出口煤炭運量預期將下滑，儘管下半年與全年運量仍將較去年同期成長。

At the same time, domestic utility volumes are expected to face continued challenges due to lower natural gas prices, above normal inventory levels, and environmental regulations. Headwinds should begin to moderate somewhat, but will continue well into 2013.

同時，國內公用事業運量預期將持續面臨挑戰，原因包括天然氣價格較低、庫存水準高於正常，以及環保法規。逆風應會開始略為緩和，但仍將延續至2013年。

Now let's look at merchandise. Overall merchandise revenue increased 3% to $1.6 billion. Automotive was the key driver in the industrial sector growing 18%, as North American light vehicle production increased 12% in the quarter. In addition, the chemicals market grew 4% with plastics, petroleum products, and frac sand being the primary drivers.

現在我們來看一般貨運（merchandise）。整體一般貨運營收成長3%，達16億美元。工業部門中，汽車是主要驅動因素，成長18%，因本季北美輕型車產量增加12%。此外，化學品市場成長4%，主要由塑膠、石油產品與壓裂砂（frac sand）帶動。

In the agricultural sector, corn shipments from animal feed declined as severe drought impacted harvest levels in the Midwest. A strong local crop in the Southeast, typically transported by truck to feed mills, also contributed to lower rail volume. In addition, ethanol shipments fell as a result of lower gasoline demand.

在農業部門，因嚴重乾旱影響中西部收成水準，動物飼料用玉米出貨量下滑。東南部當地作物收成強勁（通常以卡車運至飼料廠）也導致鐵路運量下降。此外，由於汽油需求較低，乙醇出貨量也下滑。

Looking at revenue per unit, rates increased 3% for the overall merchandise market with core pricing gains overcoming lower fuel recovery. For the fourth quarter in the industrial sector, the automotive market will remain strong, although we are now cycling tougher comparables. At the same time, we continue to see growth opportunities in chemicals, particularly in commodities that support the oil and gas industry.

就單位營收而言，整體一般貨運市場運價上升3%，核心定價提升抵銷了燃油附加費回收下降的影響。第四季在工業部門方面，汽車市場仍將維持強勁，儘管我們正面臨更具挑戰性的比較基期。同時，我們仍在化學品領域看到成長機會，特別是支援油氣產業的商品。

We expect the agricultural sector to be soft with continued weakness in ethanol shipments and lower crop yields more than offsetting increased phosphate demand. Finally, in the construction sector, aggregates, waste, and salt shipments will remain challenged, while the continued recovery of housing starts from a low base will drive growth in building products.

我們預期農業部門將偏弱，乙醇出貨持續疲弱與作物減產的影響，將超過磷酸鹽需求增加所帶來的正面貢獻。最後，在建築部門，骨材、廢棄物與鹽的出貨仍將承壓；而住宅開工自低基期持續復甦，將帶動建材產品成長。

Moving to the next page, let's review Intermodal. Intermodal revenue increased 10% to $399 million. Domestic volume was up 6% and set a new third-quarter record. Growth was driven by highway to rail conversions, the continued success of our UMAX interline container program, the addition of the new service lanes enabled by the Northwest Ohio terminal, and growth in existing business partners. International volume grew 10% as a result of the successful on-boarding of the Maersk business. Total intermodal revenue per unit increased 2% driven primarily by core pricing gains.

接著到下一頁，我們來回顧聯運（Intermodal）。聯運營收成長10%，達3.99億美元。國內運量成長6%，創下第三季新高紀錄。成長動能來自公路轉鐵路的轉換、我們UMAX跨線貨櫃計畫的持續成功、由西北俄亥俄（Northwest Ohio）場站帶動新增服務路線，以及既有合作夥伴業務成長。國際運量成長10%，主要因成功導入馬士基（Maersk）業務。聯運單位總營收成長2%，主要由核心定價提升所帶動。

Looking forward, strategic investments positioned CSX to compete for an estimated 9 million truckloads of opportunity, which reflects shipments with a length of haul exceeding 550 miles in CSX-served markets. Terminal capacity investments in Columbus, Ohio, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Worcester, and Winter Haven combined with expanded double-stack capability to Boston and Chambersburg in early 2013 will drive future growth.

展望未來，策略性投資使CSX得以競逐估計900萬車次的卡車貨載機會，這反映在CSX服務市場中、運距超過550英里的貨運。在俄亥俄州哥倫布、夏洛特、辛辛那提、伍斯特與溫特黑文的場站產能投資，加上於2013年初擴增至波士頓與錢伯斯堡的雙層堆疊（double-stack）能力，將帶動未來成長。

Let's turn to the outlook for the fourth quarter. Looking forward, we recognize the economic environment has moderated. While we expect stable or favorable conditions for 67% of our markets, we also expect an unfavorable environment for the remaining markets and an overall neutral outlook for the fourth quarter.

接著我們來看第四季展望。往前看，我們認知到經濟環境已趨於溫和。雖然我們預期67%的市場條件將穩定或有利，但其餘市場環境將不利，因此第四季整體展望為中性。

Intermodal growth will lead the way as our strategic network investments and strong service delivery will continue to support highway-to-rail conversions. In the industrial sector, automobile and light truck production will remain strong but year-over-year comparisons become more difficult. In addition, the chemicals market will grow as our petrochemical customers benefit from low natural gas prices and we capture opportunities created by the growing domestic oil and gas industry.

聯運成長將領先帶動，因我們的策略性網路投資與強勁的服務交付將持續支援公路轉鐵路的轉換。在工業部門，汽車與輕型卡車產量將維持強勁，但年對年比較將更具挑戰。此外，化學品市場將成長，因我們的石化客戶受惠於低天然氣價格，且我們將掌握國內油氣產業成長所創造的機會。

The overall outlook for the agricultural sector is unfavorable with the drought reducing the Midwest corn harvest and ethanol shipments impacted by lower demand and higher inventories. In the construction sector, we expect a continued recovery in demand for building materials, including lumber and panel products, while waste and aggregate shipments will remain challenged.

農業部門整體展望不利，乾旱降低中西部玉米收成，而乙醇出貨則受需求下降與庫存較高影響。在建築部門，我們預期建材（包括木材與板材產品）需求將持續復甦，但廢棄物與骨材出貨仍將承壓。

Finally, export coal volumes will be weaker in the fourth quarter due to lower global demand for metallurgical coal.

最後，由於全球冶金煤需求下降，第四季出口煤炭運量將較為疲弱。

On the domestic front, while the decline in utility and industrial coal shipments will moderate, they will remain well below prior year levels. Based on the combination of weaker export volumes and continued significant declines in domestic coal, we expect total coal will be down sequentially from the third-quarter levels and will also decline more on a year-over-year basis as well.

在國內方面，雖然公用事業與工業用煤出貨下滑將趨於緩和，但仍將遠低於去年水準。基於出口運量走弱與國內煤炭持續大幅下滑的組合影響，我們預期煤炭總量將較第三季呈現季減，且年對年降幅也將更大。

Now I will wrap up on the next slide. Looking at the state of the economy, the indicators we follow generally point to continued expansion but at a more moderate pace.

接下來我將在下一張投影片做總結。就經濟狀況而言，我們追蹤的指標普遍顯示經濟仍將持續擴張，但步調更為溫和。

Overall, the fourth-quarter volume outlook is neutral. While the outlook for 67% of our markets is neutral or favorable, we anticipate total volume will be flat year over year. Utility coal volume will continue to be challenged by low gas prices and high utility stockpiles. Although we expect these headwinds to moderate somewhat through the balance of the year, they will continue well into 2013.

整體而言，第四季運量展望為中性。雖然我們67%的市場展望為中性或有利，但我們預期總運量將與去年持平。公用事業用煤運量將持續受到低天然氣價格與公用事業高庫存的挑戰。儘管我們預期這些逆風在今年剩餘期間會略為緩和，但仍將延續至2013年。

Finally, we are delivering high service levels and offer environmentally-friendly solutions which creates compelling value for our customers and will drive long-term growth.

最後，我們正提供高水準的服務，並提供環境友善的解決方案，為客戶創造具吸引力的價值，並將推動長期成長。

Thank you and now I will turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

謝謝，接下來我將把簡報交給Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運成果。

Thank you, Clarence, and good morning, everyone. Despite these economic uncertainties, I think a big part of the success we have had at CSX is constantly focusing on safety, on providing high levels of customer service, and of course, driving greater efficiency. This allows us to fulfill our commitments to all our key stakeholders.

謝謝你，Clarence，各位早安。儘管存在這些經濟不確定性，我認為CSX成功的一大部分在於我們持續聚焦於安全、提供高水準的客戶服務，當然也包括推動更高的效率。這使我們能夠履行對所有主要利害關係人的承諾。

So let me start today with the fact that CSX sent more employees home safely in this third quarter with a personal injury rate that remained near all-time best levels. At the same time, customer service remained at record levels, demonstrating our teams' focus on consistently and reliably executing the operating plan. And, furthermore, we sustained these high levels of safety and service with fewer resources thereby improving asset utilization.

因此我今天先從這點開始：在第三季，CSX讓更多員工能夠安全返家，個人傷害率仍接近歷史最佳水準。同時，客戶服務維持在創紀錄水準，展現我們團隊專注於持續且可靠地執行營運計畫。此外，我們以更少的資源維持這些高水準的安全與服務，進而提升資產使用效率。

The ability to adjust in a more dynamic environment is critical to our success and our operating strategy, and it means constantly reviewing resource plans in order to prepare for a variety of different scenarios that may come in front of us. Of course, in every one of those scenarios, the goal is to maintain a safe and reliable service product while at the same time maximizing productivity levels.

在更具動態的環境中調整的能力，對我們的成功與營運策略至關重要；這意味著必須持續檢視資源規劃，以便為可能出現的各種情境做好準備。當然，在每一種情境下，目標都是在維持安全且可靠的服務產品的同時，將生產力水準最大化。

Now let's review the results of the quarter starting with safety. As you know, safety is critically important in the railroad industry. If you look at the FRA personal injury rate on the chart on the left, our employees operated more safely and produced a rate of 0.70, representing a 35% improvement year over year. This is a strong testament to our company's culture around safety.

現在我們來回顧本季成果，先從安全開始。如各位所知，安全在鐵路產業至關重要。若看左側圖表中的FRA個人傷害率，我們的員工運作更安全，達到0.70，年對年改善35%。這有力證明了我們公司以安全為核心的文化。

On the right, the FRA train accident rate, which improved 3% to 1.94, is in part a result of our employees' rigorous attention to detail and the Company's commitment to remain vigilant in safeguarding the communities we serve.

右側顯示，FRA列車事故率改善3%至1.94，部分歸功於員工對細節的嚴謹關注，以及公司致力於保持警覺、守護我們所服務社區的承諾。

Now let's review on-time performance. Here on slide 18 you can see that on-time originations on the left and on-time arrivals on the right. In addition, we have again overlaid six- and 12-month trend lines.

現在我們來檢視準點表現。在第18頁投影片中，您可以看到左側為準點始發，右側為準點到達。此外，我們再次疊加了6個月與12個月的趨勢線。

As a reminder, the on-time results for the quarter are represented by the bars and the technicals are represented by the six-month moving average in black and 12-month moving average in red.

提醒一下，本季的準點結果以長條呈現，而技術面則以黑色的6個月移動平均與紅色的12個月移動平均表示。

You may recall that earlier in the quarter CSX was impacted by Hurricane Isaac. The storm caused significant damage to a stretch of the railroad near New Orleans causing outages and reroutes for several weeks.

您可能記得，本季稍早CSX受到颶風艾薩克（Isaac）影響。風暴對紐奧良附近一段鐵路造成重大損害，導致數週的中斷與改道。

Through the tireless efforts of our employees, strong collaboration with the other railroads, and a great operating plan the impact to customers was minimal. In fact, we achieved a record high of 90% in on-time originations and we are very near all-time highs in on-time arrivals at 80%.

在員工不懈努力、與其他鐵路公司密切協作，以及優良營運計畫的支持下，對客戶的影響降至最低。事實上，我們準點始發達到90%的歷史新高，而準點到達80%也非常接近歷史高點。

CSX's commitment to service is clear, now more than ever, and the feedback from customers remains very positive.

CSX對服務的承諾比以往任何時候都更清晰可見，客戶回饋仍然非常正面。

Now looking at overall system performance on the next slide, terminal dwell is a strong indicator of how well we are utilizing our assets. If you look at the chart on the left, you will see dwell improved 9% to 23.2 hours and the trend lines again reflect strong momentum.

接著看下一頁的整體系統表現，終端停留時間（terminal dwell）是衡量我們資產運用效率的重要指標。若您看左側圖表，停留時間改善9%至23.2小時，趨勢線同樣反映出強勁動能。

Looking at the chart on the right, velocity again showed improvement, up 10%, to 22.6 miles per hour. A more fluid network allows us to utilize assets more effectively and provide consistent levels of service to customers, even while the environment around us is changing. On the next slide I will discuss velocity by market in a bit more detail.

再看右側圖表，速度也再次改善，上升10%至每小時22.6英里。更順暢的網路讓我們能更有效運用資產，並在周遭環境變化之際，仍能為客戶提供一致的服務水準。下一頁我將更詳細說明各市場的速度表現。

As you can see, velocity was up across all three networks as were both the six- and 12-month trend lines. In coal, despite the continued domestic headwinds, we are driving improvements in service and efficiency. With volume down 16%, CSX adjusted plans and maximized loadings to increase both train length and tons per car.

如您所見，三個網路的速度皆上升，6個月與12個月趨勢線也同步走高。在煤炭方面，儘管國內逆風持續，我們仍在推動服務與效率的改善。在運量下滑16%的情況下，CSX調整計畫並最大化裝載，以提升列車長度與每車噸數。

Turning to Intermodal, velocity continued to reach high levels while growing volume at an 8% clip. A higher velocity in the Intermodal network gives us the ability to reach end markets more quickly and to meet or exceed customer expectations.

轉到聯運（Intermodal），在運量以8%的速度成長之際，速度仍持續達到高水準。聯運網路更高的速度，使我們能更快觸及終端市場，並滿足或超越客戶期望。

Finally, the merchandise network also continues to perform well with velocity up 10% to 21.6 miles per hour and terminal dwell improving 9%, we are making more of the final deliveries to customers on time and remain in a great position to drive growth in these markets. Now let's look at the productivity and resource alignment on the next slide.

最後，雜貨（merchandise）網路也持續表現良好：速度上升10%至每小時21.6英里，終端停留時間改善9%；我們能更準時完成對客戶的最終交付，並維持在這些市場推動成長的有利位置。現在我們來看下一頁的生產力與資源配置。

In 2012, we have quickly adapted to the changing business environment. We have seen a significant decline in the domestic coal market along with growth and volatility in other markets and we have responded to all three. In doing so, we have maintained high service levels, improved productivity, and proactively adjusted resources.

在2012年，我們迅速適應不斷變化的商業環境。我們看到國內煤炭市場大幅下滑，同時其他市場出現成長與波動，而我們對這三者都做出了回應。在此過程中，我們維持高服務水準、提升生產力，並主動調整資源。

Regarding productivity, we will remain on track for a full-year productivity in excess of $180 million, and in order to achieve this productivity we have relied on several different levers. First, the service product the Company is delivering for customers has driven significant improvement in car cycle times and a reduction in overtime and other associated labor costs. These results allow us to constrain rent expense, materials usage, and labor costs per employee while producing a reliable service product that supports growth.

就生產力而言，我們仍可望達成全年超過1.8億美元的生產力成果；為了達成此目標，我們運用了數個不同的槓桿。首先，公司為客戶提供的服務產品，推動車輛週轉時間顯著改善，並降低加班與其他相關人力成本。這些成果使我們在提供可靠、支持成長的服務產品同時，得以抑制租賃費用、材料使用量，以及每位員工的人力成本。

In addition, through effective resource planning and execution, overtime is down significantly in the transportation, mechanical, and engineering departments driving savers to the labor line. On the fuel side, in order to achieve those savings, we have implemented a targeted locomotive shutdown program and invested in onboard technology to optimize fuel efficiency on each trip. And these initiatives are delivering results.

此外，透過有效的資源規劃與執行，運輸、機務與工程部門的加班大幅下降，帶動人事成本項下的節省。在燃料方面，為了達成這些節省，我們推行具針對性的機車關機計畫，並投資車載技術，以在每趟行程中最佳化燃油效率。而這些措施正在產生成效。

At the same time that we are driving greater productivity, we are also adjusted resources to better align with current volume levels. As a result, there are 500 train and engine employees on furlough or retention boards. In addition, the active locomotive count has come down commensurate with volume as over 300 engines are now in storage.

在推動更高生產力的同時，我們也調整資源，以更貼近目前的運量水準。因此，有500名列車與機車（T&E）員工處於停薪留職或留任名單（retention boards）上。此外，隨著運量下降，現役機車數也相應下調，目前已有超過300台引擎入庫封存。

Combined, the productivity benefits we are producing and the savings associated with the resource adjustments are helping CSX maintain a strong operating ratio despite the headwinds we are currently facing. Now let's talk a little bit more about these resource adjustments.

綜合而言，我們所創造的生產力效益，以及資源調整所帶來的節省，正協助CSX在目前面臨逆風的情況下，仍維持強勁的營運比率。接下來我們再多談一些這些資源調整。

The chart on the left represents the total active T&E workforce with the blue portion of the bars representing full-time employees and the gold portion representing those employees on furlough retention boards. While utilizing the furlough retention boards result in a higher headcount than with traditional furloughs, CSX still realizes lower labor costs and retains the flexibility with its manpower to meet attrition and service demands. We have this flexibility because it is easier and quicker to bring an employee off a retention board than the longer process of bringing an employee back from a traditional furlough.

左側圖表代表T&E現役人力總數，長條中的藍色部分代表全職員工，金色部分代表在停薪留職留任名單上的員工。雖然使用留任名單會使人數高於傳統停薪留職，但CSX仍能降低人力成本，並保有人力彈性以因應自然流失與服務需求。我們之所以具備此彈性，是因為讓員工從留任名單回到工作崗位，比起從傳統停薪留職召回員工的流程更容易也更快速。

If you turn to the chart on the right, you can also see active locomotive peaked during the first quarter of this year. Since then, we have been storing excess power. Again, the decision to store locomotives is aimed at saving costs but not, not at the price of service or flexibility. So let me wrap up on the final slide.

若您看右側圖表，也可看到現役機車數在今年第一季達到高峰。自那之後，我們一直在封存多餘的動力。同樣地，封存機車的決策旨在節省成本，但不是、不是以犧牲服務或彈性為代價。那麼我在最後一頁做個總結。

CSX's near-record safety results continue to reflect the Company's position as an industry leader and demonstrate our commitment to keep our employees and the communities we work in safe. Customers are experiencing service reliability at sustainably high levels, and as Clarence mentioned, strong service product drives long-term value for customers which in turn drives growth and long-term value for you, our shareholders.

CSX接近紀錄的安全成果，持續反映公司作為產業領導者的地位，並展現我們致力於確保員工與我們工作所在社區安全的承諾。客戶正體驗到可持續維持在高水準的服務可靠度；正如Clarence所提到的，強健的服務產品能為客戶帶來長期價值，進而推動成長，並為各位股東帶來長期價值。

As CSX delivers a superior service product for customers, the Company is achieving it with improved operational efficiency and we continue to expect to realize the productivity saving that will exceed $180 million this year.

隨著CSX為客戶提供更優質的服務產品，公司也以更高的營運效率達成，我們仍預期今年可實現超過1.8億美元的生產力節省。

So in summary, our operational strategy supports the Company's goal of creating long-term value for our owners. Once again, this company has demonstrated the ability to adjust to changes in the economy, thereby variablizing our cost structure and delivering stable financial results despite a number of headwinds outside of our control.

總結來說，我們的營運策略支持公司為股東創造長期價值的目標。公司再次展現因應經濟變化的能力，進而使成本結構更具變動性，並在多項非我們所能控制的逆風下，仍交出穩健的財務成果。

So with that, let me turn the presentation over to Fredrik to review the financials.

那麼，接下來我把簡報交給Fredrik，請他說明財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar, and good morning, everyone. Looking at the top of this slide, revenue was down 2%. Expenses were down by the same percentage, driven in part by productivity gains and resource adjustments made in response to changing market conditions while maintaining high levels of customer service. As a result, third-quarter operating income was $854 million, down 3% versus the prior year.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。先看這張投影片上方，營收下滑2%。費用也以相同幅度下降，部分原因是生產力提升，以及因應市場狀況變化所做的資源調整，同時仍維持高水準的客戶服務。因此，第三季營業利益為8.54億美元，較去年同期下滑3%。

Looking below the line, interest expense and other income were essentially flat year over year and income taxes were $266 million in the quarter for an effective tax rate of 36.9%. Finally, EPS was $0.44, an improvement of 2%, reflecting the impact of our share repurchase program.

從線下項目來看，利息費用及其他收入基本上與去年同期持平，本季所得稅為2.66億美元，有效稅率為36.9%。最後，每股盈餘（EPS）為0.44美元，提升2%，反映了我們股票回購計畫的影響。

Turning to the next slide, let's discuss the impact of fuel lag. On a year-over-year basis, the third-quarter fuel surcharge lag impact was $32 million unfavorable. Looking at the chart, lagged fuel prices are shown by the yellow line while unlagged fuel prices are shown by the blue line.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來討論燃油滯後（fuel lag）的影響。以年對年來看，第三季燃油附加費滯後影響為不利3,200萬美元。從圖表可見，滯後燃油價格以黃色線表示，而未滯後燃油價格以藍色線表示。

In this quarter, fuel prices were increasing over the course of the quarter, resulting in $16 million in negative in-quarter lag. Conversely, in the third quarter of 2011 fuel prices were declining, resulting in $16 million of favorable in-quarter lag. The combination of the two is a $32 million year-over-year negative impact.

本季燃油價格在季度期間走升，導致當季內滯後為負1,600萬美元。相反地，2011年第三季燃油價格走跌，帶來當季內有利滯後1,600萬美元。兩者合計，年對年造成3,200萬美元的負面影響。

Turning to the next slide, let's discuss expenses in more detail. Overall expenses were down 2% in the quarter as we began to cycle resource investments made in the second half of last year. I will talk about the top three expense items in more detail on the next few slides, but the let me briefly speak to the last two on the chart.

接著看下一張投影片，我們更詳細地討論費用。整體費用本季下降2%，因為我們開始進入去年下半年資源投資的比較基期。我會在接下來幾張投影片更詳細說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談談圖表中的最後兩項。

Depreciation was up 7% to $268 million due to the increase in the net asset base. This is in line with our previous estimates and is expected to increase a few million dollars sequentially in the fourth quarter. Equipment rents were up 1% to $96 million as strong volume increases in automotive and intermodal, plus inflation and more leased locomotives, were almost entirely absorbed by improved cycle times.

折舊增加7%至2.68億美元，主要因淨資產基礎增加。這與我們先前的估計一致，且預期第四季將再按季增加數百萬美元。設備租賃費用增加1%至9,600萬美元；汽車運輸與聯運的強勁量增，加上通膨與更多租賃機車，幾乎完全被週轉時間改善所吸收。

Turning to slide 28, labor and fringe expense was down 1% versus last year, or $11 million. Looking at the chart on the left, headcount, which includes employees on retention boards, was up 2% versus last year but down 1% sequentially. This is roughly in line with our prior guidance which was for headcount to remain relatively constant.

接著看第28頁，勞務與附加福利費用較去年下降1%，或1,100萬美元。看左側圖表，人員數（包含留任名冊上的員工）較去年增加2%，但按季下降1%。這大致符合我們先前的指引，也就是人員數將維持相對穩定。

Moving to the table on the right, you may recall that CSX took a charge in the third quarter last year for labor-related costs associated with a facility closure. We are now cycling this charge in the current quarter, resulting in a favorable impact of $14 million. Improvements in network efficiency reduced crew overtime costs by $7 million driven by reductions in overtime hours and relief crews.

再看右側表格，您可能記得CSX去年第三季因設施關閉而產生與勞務相關的成本並認列一次性費用。本季我們已進入該費用的比較基期，因此帶來1,400萬美元的有利影響。網路效率改善使乘務員加班成本降低700萬美元，主要由加班時數與支援乘務員（relief crews）減少所帶動。

Moving down the table, labor inflation was up $7 million, slightly favorable to our expectations. While core wage inflation was above 3%, lower costs on health and welfare programs, as well as the impact of lower railroad unemployment tax rate continued to provide favorability. Rounding out the table, other costs were $3 million higher driven by $8 million in incentive compensation favorability that was more than offset by various other nonrecurring items, none of which are material in and of themselves.

再往下看，勞務通膨增加700萬美元，略優於我們的預期。雖然核心薪資通膨高於3%，但健康與福利計畫成本較低，以及鐵路失業稅率下降的影響，持續帶來有利因素。表格最後，其他成本增加300萬美元，主因為800萬美元的激勵薪酬有利因素，卻被各種其他一次性項目所抵銷；這些項目單獨來看都不具重大性。

Looking at the fourth quarter, headcount should continue to be relatively constant so, as we have demonstrated once again this year, we will adjust accordingly as business conditions warrant. In addition, we expect that labor inflation will remain modest, in line or slightly higher than what we experienced this quarter. Finally, we now expect incentive compensation to be lower year over year in the fourth quarter.

展望第四季，人員數應會持續相對穩定；因此，如同我們今年再次展現的，我們將依業務狀況需要進行相應調整。此外，我們預期勞務通膨將維持溫和，與本季相當或略高。最後，我們目前預期第四季激勵薪酬將較去年同期下降。

Turning to slide 29, MS&O expense decreased 7%, or $37 million, versus last year. In the third quarter, CSX recognized a $30 million deferred gain related to the Company's sale of property in November of last year to the state of Florida. While CSX will recognize a similar gain in the fourth quarter of this year, the year-over-year favorable comparison will be lower since the Company first recognized the $14 million gain from this sale in the fourth quarter of last year.

接著看第29頁，MS&O費用較去年下降7%，或3,700萬美元。第三季，CSX認列3,000萬美元的遞延收益，與公司去年11月將不動產出售給佛羅里達州政府相關。雖然CSX將在今年第四季認列類似收益，但由於公司去年第四季已先就該交易認列1,400萬美元收益，因此年對年有利比較幅度將較小。

As Oscar discussed earlier, continuing improvements in our safety performance have reduced personal injuries and train derailments. As a result, adjustments to casualty reserves generated $18 million in cost savings for casualty, loss, and damage.

如Oscar先前所述，我們安全績效的持續改善已降低人身傷害與列車出軌事件。因此，對傷亡準備金的調整在傷亡、損失與損害方面帶來1,800萬美元的成本節省。

Moving down the table, volume-related expenses increased $8 million, primarily reflecting terminal-related costs associated with our growing intermodal, export coal, and automotive businesses. Finally, inflation and other costs increased $3 million this quarter.

再往下看，與運量相關的費用增加800萬美元，主要反映我們聯運、出口煤與汽車運輸業務成長所帶動的場站相關成本。最後，本季通膨及其他成本增加300萬美元。

Moving to the next slide, let's discuss the impact of fuel. Total fuel costs decreased 4%, or $15 million, versus last year. Looking at the table to the right, fuel efficiency was favorable by $8 million, reflecting a 2% year-over-year improvement in gallons consumed per gross ton mile. Lower volume reduced fuel expenses by $7 million with gross ton miles down 2%.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來討論燃油的影響。燃油總成本較去年下降4%，或1,500萬美元。看右側表格，燃油效率帶來800萬美元的有利影響，反映每總噸英里耗油量年對年改善2%。運量較低使燃油費用減少700萬美元，總噸英里下降2%。

Next, as shown in the chart on the left, CSX's average cost per gallon for locomotive fuel increased to $3.16 of 1% versus last year. This increase in fuel price accounted for $3 million of the overall increase in fuel expense as seen on the table on the right. Finally, non-locomotive fuel expense was $3 million lower.

接著，如左側圖表所示，CSX機車燃油每加侖平均成本上升至3.16美元，較去年增加1%。如右側表格所示，燃油價格上升使燃油費用整體增加300萬美元。最後，非機車燃油費用減少300萬美元。

Turning to slide 31, CSX remains committed to an improving investment-grade profile and all key credit measures improved during the third quarter. This improving credit profile supports the Company's commitment to its balanced approach for deploying capital to shareholders. As a key driver of long-term value, capital investments is the first priority of a balanced approach.

接著看第31頁，CSX仍致力於提升投資等級的信用體質，且第三季所有關鍵信用衡量指標皆有所改善。信用體質的改善，支持公司以均衡方式向股東配置資本的承諾。作為長期價值的關鍵驅動因素，資本投資是此均衡策略的第一優先。

For 2012, CSX remains on target to invest $2.25 billion. Longer term, our core capital investment target is 16% to 17% of revenue plus the additional investment required for P2C.

就2012年而言，CSX仍按計畫投資22.5億美元。長期來看，我們核心資本投資目標為營收的16%至17%，另加上P2C所需的額外投資。

Our second priority is dividends. The Company continues to target a payout ratio of 30% to 35% of trailing 12-month earnings measured after each year's first quarter. As a result, the dividend was increased 17% and became effective with a second-quarter payment earlier this year.

第二優先是股利。公司持續以每年第一季結束後所衡量的過去12個月盈餘為基礎，目標配息率為30%至35%。因此，股利提高17%，並已於今年稍早隨第二季股利發放起生效。

Finally, we expect to fund future share purchases primarily through free cash flow. With $200 million of share repurchased in the third quarter, there is about $234 million remaining under the current program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year.

最後，我們預期未來的股票回購將主要以自由現金流支應。第三季回購2億美元股票後，目前計畫下尚餘約2.34億美元額度，我們預期將在今年底前完成。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. Recapping the third quarter, cost reductions helped mitigate the effects of fuel lag and coal headwinds. Automotive and intermodal growth partially offset declines in coal volume, while safety service and productivity remained at or near record levels.

接著我在下一張投影片做個總結。回顧第三季，成本降低有助於緩解燃油滯後與煤炭逆風的影響。汽車運輸與聯運成長部分抵銷煤炭運量下滑，而安全、服務與生產力仍維持在或接近歷史新高水準。

For the full year CSX is still expecting modest earnings growth and margin expansion. However, with a weaker expert export coal outlook and a moderating economy, the fourth-quarter outlook has become more challenging.

就全年而言，CSX仍預期盈餘將溫和成長且利潤率擴張。然而，在出口煤展望轉弱以及經濟趨緩之下，第四季展望變得更具挑戰。

Longer term, achieving a 65% operating ratio by 2015 will be challenging as well. This target is based on stabilizing utility coal volumes next year and export coal remaining in the 40 million-plus ton range over the long term. By maintaining an outstanding service product, CSX can drive inflation plus pricing long term, as well as volume growth and productivity gains that can keep us on the path towards 65%.

長期來看，要在2015年前達成65%的營運比率同樣具有挑戰。此目標係基於明年公用事業煤炭運量趨於穩定，以及長期出口煤維持在4,000萬噸以上的區間。透過維持卓越的服務產品，CSX長期可推動「通膨加成」的定價，同時帶動運量成長與生產力提升，使我們持續朝65%的目標邁進。

Finally, as we deliver outstanding financial results for investors, CSX remains committed to a balanced approach in deploying cash, which includes capital investments to drive long-term value, as well as dividends and share purchases that provide immediate returns for shareholders.

最後，在我們為投資人交出卓越的財務成果之際，CSX 仍致力於以均衡方式運用現金，包括透過資本投資來推動長期價值，以及透過股利與股票回購為股東提供即時回報。

With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

接下來，讓我把簡報交回給 Michael，請他做結語。

Well, thank you, Fredrik. In this economic environment, aside from all the measures we examined this morning, we think it's important to continually challenge ourselves with three key questions.

好的，謝謝你，Fredrik。在目前的經濟環境下，除了我們今天上午檢視的所有措施之外，我們認為持續用三個關鍵問題來挑戰自己很重要。

First, are we providing our customers with the service product that is valuable and will drive long-term growth? The answer is yes. As you heard this morning in fact, our employees are driving service at record levels.

第一，我們是否為客戶提供了有價值、並能推動長期成長的服務產品？答案是肯定的。事實上，正如你們今天上午所聽到的，我們的員工正以創紀錄的水準推動服務表現。

That service makes a real contribution to our customers' ability to thrive in the competitive near-term environment while continuing to gain their confidence for a future that will be more prosperous. Service is the foundation for growth and provides CSX the ability to price its product to reflect the relative value it provides customers

這樣的服務，確實有助於我們的客戶在短期競爭環境中茁壯，同時也持續贏得他們對未來更繁榮前景的信心。服務是成長的基礎，並使 CSX 能夠為其產品定價，以反映其為客戶提供的相對價值

Second, how well are we managing the things that are most in our control? I believe our productivity and resource alignment speaks volumes here. In a year when the economy has moderated and the headwinds in coal are significant, CSX continues to produce strong financial results.

第二，我們在管理那些最能掌控的事項方面做得如何？我相信我們的生產力與資源配置調整在這裡已充分說明一切。在經濟趨緩、且煤炭逆風顯著的一年裡，CSX 仍持續創造強勁的財務成果。

The $180 million in productivity savings that is being produced this year represents a strong commitment by the team to continually achieve shareholder value in any environment. It also reflects just how nimble we are, the focus of our team, and the extraordinary capability for improvement that our employees bring to work every day.

今年所實現的 1.8 億美元生產力節省，代表團隊在任何環境下持續創造股東價值的堅定承諾。這也反映出我們的敏捷度、團隊的專注，以及員工每天上班所展現的卓越改善能力。

Third, while managing through tough near-term times, are we staying focused on what we know to be a more prosperous long term? Here again the answer is yes.

第三，在度過短期艱困時期的同時，我們是否仍專注於我們所知更繁榮的長期前景？在這裡答案同樣是肯定的。

Most transportation planners continue to expect a significant increase in demand for transportation in the United States and we know that our public highway system is already at capacity in many places. CSX offers what is, in effect, a privately-funded highway that serves about two-thirds of the population and even a greater share of consumption.

多數運輸規劃者仍預期美國的運輸需求將大幅增加，而我們也知道公共公路系統在許多地區已達到容量上限。CSX 實際上提供了一條由民間資金支持的「高速公路」，服務約三分之二的人口，甚至涵蓋更高比例的消費。

The very things we have done to better safety, service, and productivity in this tough economy makes us even more prepared to meet significantly higher demands for our service in the future. And we continue to invest to prepare our network for that eventuality.

在這個艱困的經濟環境中，我們為提升安全、服務與生產力所做的各項努力，讓我們更有準備在未來面對顯著更高的服務需求。我們也持續投資，為我們的路網做好因應準備。

As shareholders investing in CSX's future, you rightfully expect management to deliver results even in difficult economic times, and we want you to know that we are highly committed to doing so. Likewise, as we have faced important decisions in the upcoming election, I know you will join me in urging both sides to work together to foster a business environment that creates as much certainty as possible and is conducive for long-term growth.

作為投資 CSX 未來的股東，你們理所當然期待管理團隊即使在艱難的經濟時期也能交出成果，而我們希望你們知道，我們對此高度承諾。同樣地，面對即將到來選舉中的重要決策，我相信你們會與我一起呼籲雙方合作，營造盡可能具確定性、並有利於長期成長的商業環境。

CSX and the freight rail industry are providing our nation's businesses with a great competitive advantage. Your company has achieved outstanding results throughout the recession and the slow recovery, and I especially believe that we are doing now and will lead to significant value creation long-term.

CSX 與貨運鐵路產業正為我國企業提供巨大的競爭優勢。貴公司在衰退期間與緩慢復甦過程中都取得了卓越成果，而我尤其相信，我們現在所做的以及未來將持續引領的作為，將在長期創造顯著價值。

With that, we will take your questions.

接下來，我們將回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Tom Wadewitz, JPMorgan.

(接線員指示) Tom Wadewitz，摩根大通。

Good morning, Michael. Good morning, everyone. Wanted to get a sense of how you are looking at the utility -- the export coal market for 2013. I know that's probably kind of a limited visibility type of question.

早安，Michael。各位早安。我想了解一下你們如何看待 2013 年公用事業——出口煤市場。我知道這可能是一個能見度相當有限的問題。

But how much of your utility -- your thermal exports would be locked in where you would have some visibility to 2013? And how much of the overall export tonnage would be something that essentially is not on committed contract for 2013?

不過，你們的公用事業——你們的動力煤出口，有多少是已鎖定、因此對 2013 年有一定能見度的？而整體出口噸數中，又有多少基本上在 2013 年並沒有簽訂承諾合約？

Tom, this is Clarence. Most of the contracts for 2013 are not committed at this time. The market is very volatile, as you are aware, in both the thermal and in the metallurgical markets, particularly given the volatility in China. So we will start most of the thermal discussions here in the next 30 to 60 days to try to get those contracts put in place at the first of the year.

Tom，我是 Clarence。目前 2013 年的大多數合約尚未承諾。如你所知，無論是動力煤或冶金煤市場都非常波動，尤其考量到中國的波動性。因此，我們將在接下來 30 到 60 天開始大部分動力煤的討論，力求在年初把這些合約敲定。

The met is trending more and more to quarterly negotiations, and we will start -- a lot of those really won't start until end of first quarter next year.

冶金煤的趨勢則愈來愈偏向按季談判，而我們將開始——其中很多其實要到明年第一季末才會啟動。

Okay. I don't know if this is for -- I suppose for the broader team or for Michael. If you looked at 2013 and the economy doesn't show much of a pickup and the kind of overall coal is maybe a modest headwind, maybe not quite as much as this year, what do you think the key areas are where you might be able to drive operating ratio -- material operating ratio improvement in earnings?

好的。我不確定這題該問——我想是問整個團隊或 Michael。如果你們看 2013 年，而經濟沒有明顯回升、整體煤炭可能只是溫和逆風、也許不如今年那麼大，那你們認為有哪些關鍵領域可以推動營運比率——也就是在獲利上帶來實質的營運比率改善？

What would you really look to drive that in 2013 if you don't get help from coal or you don't get help from the economy?

如果煤炭或經濟都沒有提供助力，你們在 2013 年會主要靠什麼來推動？

Tom, two things. Obviously we are going to continue to produce the kind of productivity that Oscar and his team have produced this year. That is always going to be one of our key value creators.

Tom，有兩點。很明顯地，我們會持續產出像 Oscar 與其團隊今年所達成的那種生產力成果。這一向會是我們關鍵的價值創造來源之一。

But if you exclude coal, our business will be up 4% to 5% this year if you count all the other markets, Tom. That's probably double what the economy is growing, so we believe that we can continue with this great service we are providing to grow at a faster rate than the economy as well. So I think those two will be very helpful in value creation.

但如果排除煤炭，今年我們的業務在其他所有市場合計將成長 4% 到 5%，Tom。這大概是經濟成長率的兩倍，因此我們相信，憑藉我們所提供的優異服務，我們也能持續以高於經濟成長的速度成長。所以我認為這兩點將對價值創造非常有幫助。

Fredrik, do you have something you want to add to that?

Fredrik，你有想補充的嗎？

No, I think we are going to continue to pull the levers, Tom, that we've pulled in the past, including inflation plus pricing, driving productivity, and then solid volume growth. Obviously, it's a difficult coal environment but that's something we've been dealing with for an extended period of time now going back all the way to 2006. And we've been able to produce very solid financial results during this period.

沒有，我認為我們會持續拉動過去一直在拉的槓桿，Tom，包括高於通膨的定價、推動生產力，以及穩健的運量成長。顯然，煤炭環境很艱難，但這也是我們長期以來一直在面對的情況，最早可追溯到 2006 年。而在這段期間，我們仍能交出非常穩健的財務成果。

Okay, thank you. Appreciate it.

好的，謝謝。感謝。

Bill Greene, Morgan Stanley.

Bill Greene，摩根士丹利。

Good morning. Can I just ask one sort of clarification on the long-term target of 65%? You say based on stabilization in utility coal. Is that over the time period through 2015 relative to 2012 levels? Because you mentioned that it's going to go down in 2013 likely and we're not going to get to easy comps till we get further into the year.

早安。我可以就 65% 的長期目標做一個釐清嗎？你們說是基於公用事業煤炭的穩定。這是指到 2015 年這段期間、相對於 2012 年的水準嗎？因為你們提到 2013 年可能會下降，而且要到更接近年底才會出現較容易的比較基期。

I think what we have said at this point, Bill, is that we expected -- we are going to have this overhang with us into 2013. At that point, we expect it to stabilize.

Bill，我想我們目前所說的是，我們預期——這個壓力將延續到 2013 年。到了那個時點，我們預期它會趨於穩定。

We are not counting on a significant recovery. Exactly where it needs to be is obviously difficult to pinpoint, but we are not banking on a significant recovery from the levels that we are seeing this year.

我們並不指望會有顯著復甦。確切需要到什麼程度當然很難精準界定，但我們並未把希望寄託在從今年所見水準出現顯著復甦。

And based on the levels that we saw this year, should we expect to see liquidated damages? Does that have any benefit this quarter?

而且根據我們今年看到的水準，我們是否應該預期會有違約金（liquidated damages）？這在本季有任何好處嗎？

We had liquidated damages this quarter year over year. That was about $6 million. And we don't expect anything for the fourth quarter, as most of the contracts really come up at the end of the year.

本季我們的違約金較去年同期有入帳。約為600萬美元。而第四季我們預期不會有，因為多數合約基本上是在年底到期。

We are going to see some next year. It's a little too early to tell exactly what it's going to be, but we will update you on that as we see them.

明年我們會看到一些。現在要精確判斷會是多少還太早，但我們會在看到之後再向各位更新。

All right. And then just last question, Clarence, can you remind us, in the third quarter as you look out to 2013 now how much of the business do you have visibility on pricing? How much is usually locked in by this point for next year?

好的。最後一個問題，Clarence，你能提醒我們一下嗎？在第三季、當你現在展望2013年時，你們對多少業務的定價具有可見度？通常到這個時間點，明年的價格有多少已經鎖定？

Bills, we have about 75% right now locked in for next year, 25% to go.

Bills，我們目前大約有75%已為明年鎖定，還有25%待完成。

And it's at inflation-plus presumably?

而且推測是「通膨加成」（inflation-plus）？

Yes, over the long term we think we will be right back inflation-plus pricing.

是的，長期來看我們認為我們會回到通膨加成的定價。

All right. Thank you for the time.

好的。謝謝你撥冗。

Kevin Crissey, UBS.

UBS 的 Kevin Crissey。

Good morning, thanks and maybe this is for Fredrik. I guess it relates to the liquidated damages in Q3. The other revenue line in addition had some other elements to it I believe and it was up pretty sharply more than we would have expected in Q3.

早安，謝謝。也許這題是問 Fredrik。我想是關於第三季的違約金。我記得除了違約金之外，「其他營收」那一行還包含一些其他項目，而且第三季增幅相當明顯，超出我們原先的預期。

Is that a good run rate going forward, ex the $6 million you talked about in liquidated damages? Thanks.

撇除你提到的600萬美元違約金，這樣的水準在未來是否可視為合理的常態（run rate）？謝謝。

Yes, we had liquidated damage. We also had some volume incentive refunds adjustments that were positive and some of the other line items in other revenue were all favorable this quarter. I think the best way to look at it is probably a run rate that was similar to what we saw in the first two quarters versus what we saw here in the third quarter.

是的，我們有違約金。我們也有一些量能獎勵退款（volume incentive refunds）的調整，帶來正面影響；此外，「其他營收」中的其他項目本季也都偏有利。我認為最好的看法，可能是把常態水準視為更接近前兩季，而不是第三季這個水準。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Ken Hoexter, BNY Mellon.

BNY Mellon 的 Ken Hoexter。

BNY Mellon, that's a new one. Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Hey, good morning.

BNY Mellon，這是新的稱呼。美國銀行美林。嗨，早安。

You talked about a bunch of yards, Clarence. Was that -- can you run down the list and are those expansion or are those new yards? Can you talk about the percent capacity increase that those yards will provide for your intermodal segment?

Clarence，你提到好幾個場站（yard）。你能把清單逐一說明一下嗎？這些是擴建還是新建場站？能否談談這些場站將為你們的聯運（intermodal）部門帶來多少百分比的產能提升？

Yes, in the case of Columbus, Ohio, we have more than doubled the capacity of the Columbus terminal. It was on the existing footprint and we expanded. The same was true at Charlotte. In fact, this was a third phase of three phases that were planned for Charlotte.

是的，以俄亥俄州哥倫布（Columbus, Ohio）為例，我們把哥倫布場站的產能提高到原來的兩倍以上。是在既有用地範圍內進行擴建。夏洛特（Charlotte）也是同樣情況。事實上，這是夏洛特原先規劃三期工程中的第三期。

Worcester is a new facility, an expanded facility but you might as well say it's new because it was from the ground up. It will be in operation late this year, early next quarter. It was part of the New England strategy in which we double-stack cleared into New England and then expanded the Worcester terminal and got out of Boston's Beacon Park.

伍斯特（Worcester）是一個新設施，是擴建後的設施，但你也可以說它是新的，因為是從零開始建造。它會在今年稍晚、或下季初投入營運。這是新英格蘭策略的一部分：我們完成通往新英格蘭的雙層堆疊（double-stack）淨空，接著擴建伍斯特場站，並退出波士頓的 Beacon Park。

The facility at Cincinnati expansion was in a current and existing facility that was there. It's almost double the size of that facility. And Winter Haven is part of the new terminals that we are building as a result of the SunRail purchase that is located just south of Lakeland, Florida. It is on US Highway 60 which transverses the southern state, southern part of Florida from Tampa over to West Palm Beach.

辛辛那提（Cincinnati）的擴建是在既有現場設施上進行。規模幾乎是原設施的兩倍。而 Winter Haven 則是我們因 SunRail 收購案而新建的場站之一，位置在佛羅里達州萊克蘭（Lakeland）以南。它位於美國60號公路（US Highway 60）旁，該公路橫貫佛州南部，從坦帕（Tampa）一路到西棕櫚灘（West Palm Beach）。

And the percentage increase that -- is this like a step function on these yards or is this just incremental?

那產能提升的百分比——這些場站是屬於「跳躍式」的提升，還是只是漸進式增加？

It would be a step function because in most cases, it's significantly increasing the capacity both in terms of physical capacity as well as in terms of the technology that we are employing in those terminals to increase the productivity and the lift capabilities.

會是跳躍式提升，因為多數情況下，我們在實體容量上大幅增加，同時也在這些場站導入技術，以提升生產力與吊裝（lift）能力。

Okay, and then just my follow up on pricing. If you look at pure pricing on export coal, the contracts you mentioned moved to quarterly, does that lead to pressure on other contracts as you start downshifting on some of those contracts? Can you kind of walk us through the mentality of how you [bow in] in some of those negotiations as you start bringing some contracts down?

好的。接著追問定價。如果看出口煤的純定價，你提到合約改為按季（quarterly）調整，當你開始把某些合約的價格往下調時，是否會對其他合約造成壓力？你能否帶我們了解一下，在這些談判中你們的思維與做法？

As it relates to export coal?

你是指出口煤相關嗎？

No, I just mean in terms of when we look back in the early part of the decade, the coal contracts led the pricing on the way up. I've gotten a lot of questions on does this lead it to be more volatile in terms of pricing relative to your inflation-plus targets.

不是，我的意思是：回顧本十年初期，煤炭合約在價格上行時帶動了定價。我收到很多問題在問：這是否會讓你們的定價相對於「通膨加成」目標變得更具波動性？

No, I would say that in the case of the export market, what you will find is that our rates will move directionally with what the coal prices do. So if coal prices go up, our rates go up; if they go down, our rates go down. But not at the same rate that the coal rates go up. So we will go up a little less than the coal price will and we will go down a little less than the coal price will.

不會。我會說，在出口市場的情況下，你會發現我們的運價會隨煤價方向性變動。所以煤價上漲，我們的運價上漲；煤價下跌，我們的運價下跌。但不會以煤價同樣的幅度變動。也就是說，煤價上漲時我們漲得略少；煤價下跌時我們跌得也略少。

In our utility contracts going forward, that's just a totally separate environment and as we go more to fixed and variable, those prices will tend to rise higher. Then the third part of your question was most of that pricing that you saw in the first part of the decade was legacy contracts that we were able to reprice under the rail renters [lines].

至於未來的公用事業（utility）合約，那是完全不同的環境；當我們更多轉向固定與變動（fixed and variable）結構時，那些價格往往會走得更高。你問題的第三部分是：本十年初期你看到的多數定價，其實是我們能在鐵路租戶（rail renters）[lines] 之下重新議價的既有（legacy）合約。

Appreciate the thoughts, thanks.

感謝分享想法，謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Trahan.

Wolfe Trahan 的 Scott Group。

Thanks. Morning, Michael. Morning, guys. So on the coal side, Clarence, you talked about the met exports softening here. Are you seeing the met pricing that you are getting soften as well at this point or is that more something that you think happens in 2013?

謝謝。早安，Michael。各位早安。在煤炭方面，Clarence，你提到冶金煤（met）出口在這裡轉弱。你們目前拿到的冶金煤運價也開始轉弱了嗎？還是你認為那會是2013年才會發生的事？

Maybe we could just talk about the overall pricing strategy on the export side, both met and steam, as you look out to next year? Do you focus a little bit more on keeping volume and giving up some price, or how do you think about that balance for next year?

也許我們可以談談出口端整體的定價策略，包含冶金煤與動力煤（steam），在展望明年時？你們會更著重維持運量、並在價格上讓步一些嗎？或是你們如何看待明年的取捨平衡？

As we said just then, Scott, to Ken, the met prices are going to move with the market so think about it like this. 18 months ago metallurgical coal was strike price; Queensland was about $320 a ton. Today the strike price is about $170 a ton, which means it's selling at less than that, and so our rates have been adjusted accordingly.

如同我們剛才對 Scott、也對 Ken 所說，冶金煤價格會隨市場變動，所以可以這樣想：18個月前，冶金煤的基準價（strike price）；昆士蘭（Queensland）大約是每噸320美元。今天基準價大約是每噸170美元，這表示實際成交價低於那個水準，因此我們的運價也已相應調整。

We still make very good money on the volumes that we move. So the volumes that we can move and move profitably, we will protect with rates. Those that we cannot move profitably then we won't protect that rate when it gets too low. So that's essentially how the mets are being priced.

我們在所運輸的運量上仍然能賺到非常好的利潤。因此，對於我們能夠運、且能獲利的運量，我們會用運價來加以維護。而對於我們無法獲利運輸的部分，當價格降得太低時，我們就不會再去維持那個運價。這基本上就是冶金煤的定價方式。

The thermal that we are moving this year was actually signed on a forward curve two years ago, so it has had little impact in our movements this year as a result of that.

我們今年所運輸的動力煤其實是在兩年前就依遠期曲線簽訂的，因此因此對我們今年的變動影響不大。

How do the forwards look for next year's pricing on the steam export?

那明年蒸汽煤出口的遠期價格看起來如何？

Steam forwards on API to index steam prices are about $94 a ton as of about two days ago on the forward-looking curve. And that's not as strong as it was a year ago or two years ago so it has weakened to some extent in Europe.

以 API 指數連動的蒸汽煤遠期價格，約在兩天前的遠期曲線上是每噸 94 美元。而這不如一年前或兩年前那麼強，因此在歐洲已在某種程度上走弱。

Okay. Then last thing if I can, Clarence, the 3.7% pricing ex-coal, so ex export coal, we haven't gotten that level of breakout before. Can you give us just a sense on how that 3.7% compares with what it would've looked like last year or two years ago?

好的。那最後一點，如果可以的話，Clarence，扣除煤炭後（也就是扣除出口煤）的 3.7% 定價，我們以前沒有拿到過這樣的拆分層級。你能不能讓我們大概了解一下，這個 3.7% 跟去年或兩年前相比會是什麼樣子？

I'm just trying to get a sense if the pricing ex-coal, if that environment is changing now that we are through the legacy contracts. Is this kind of the new normal?

我只是想了解一下，扣除煤炭後的定價環境，在我們走過那些歷史合約之後是否正在改變。這算是新的常態嗎？

I think, Scott, I think we provided pretty good transparency here in terms of giving the first three quarters of the year. I think you know that in the past we have used that slide in the overall pricing and, clearly, you know that in the beginning of this rail renaissance period we had a lot of legacy contracts that kept pricing at a little bit higher level. So I think that's the best barometer we can provide you.

我認為，Scott，我們在這裡已經提供了相當好的透明度，包含提供今年前三季的數據。我想你也知道，過去我們在整體定價上用過那張投影片；而且很明顯，在這段鐵路復興期一開始，我們有很多歷史合約把定價維持在稍高的水準。所以我想這是我們能提供給你最好的衡量指標。

This is something we think is important for people to understand that the core pricing of our sales and marketing team is continuing to do inflation-plus pricing. But it is a different market in the export coal side, which is why we have provided this breakout that we are doing now.

我們認為讓大家理解這點很重要：我們銷售與行銷團隊的核心定價仍在持續做「通膨加成」定價。但出口煤端是不同的市場，這也是為什麼我們現在提供這個拆分。

That makes sense. Thanks a lot, guys. Appreciate it.

了解。非常感謝，各位。感激不盡。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊。

Good morning, gentlemen. If I could just come back to Tom's initial question here, I think what a lot of us are asking ourselves is with the coal headwind in 2013 feels like a similar outcome. Maybe not as bad as in 2012, but where you get productivity.

早安，各位先生。如果我可以回到 Tom 一開始的問題，我想我們很多人都在想：2013 年煤炭的逆風感覺會帶來類似的結果。也許沒有 2012 年那麼糟，但你會得到生產力。

But it just didn't drive a lot of OR improvement this year. Should we be thinking just modest targets on OR improvement for 2013 and really have to wait for coal to stabilize where you can really drive those gains to get to your 65% target?

但今年它並沒有帶來很多營運比率（OR）的改善。我們是否應該把 2013 年 OR 改善的目標想得比較溫和，並且真的得等煤炭穩定後，才能把那些增益推動到你們 65% 的目標？

I think that you have to -- we have kind of outlined the different profit levers that we have. Clearly in an environment where coal is declining it is going to be more difficult to provide a meaningful margin expansion. I think, based on the fact that our visibility into the export coal market is relatively limited, it is hard to see right now what it's going to do next year. If it is stronger, we will do better; if it is weaker, we will do less.

我想你必須——我們已經大致勾勒出我們不同的獲利槓桿。很明顯，在煤炭下滑的環境下，要提供有意義的利潤率擴張會更困難。我認為，由於我們對出口煤市場的能見度相對有限，目前很難看出明年會如何發展。如果更強，我們會做得更好；如果更弱，我們就會做得少一些。

But the other drivers that we have -- inflation-plus pricing. As Michael said earlier, we have grown our volumes up 4% this year. Our non-coal business is still there. Productivity is still there. We are putting a service product in front of our customer that is better than probably in recent memory or longer.

但我們還有其他驅動因素——通膨加成定價。如 Michael 先前所說，我們今年的運量成長了 4%。我們的非煤業務仍然存在。生產力仍然存在。我們提供給客戶的服務產品，可能是近年來、甚至更久以來最好的。

And so we are doing the things that we can control the most very well and then we are going to have to adjust to whatever market environment we have. And, therefore, the operating ratio improvement will be reflective of that.

因此，我們把最能掌控的事情都做得很好，然後我們必須依據所處的市場環境做調整。因此，營運比率的改善也會反映這一點。

Well, maybe if I can follow up with that. Oscar, what type of leverage do you think you can get outside of these bulk networks? In merchandise and in intermodal where you are seeing the growth, is there a lot of spare capacity that you are anticipating can be utilized better as we look forward into 2013?

那也許我可以追問一下。Oscar，你認為在這些散貨網路之外能取得什麼樣的槓桿？在你們看到成長的雜貨（merchandise）與聯運（intermodal）業務上，你們預期在展望 2013 年時，有很多閒置產能可以更好地被利用嗎？

Yes, we certainly do have excess capacity and, with regards to the future, let me tell just a quick story. You may not have heard of our TSI carload initiative, but in essence it's implementing what you've seen in our operating metrics is kind of a more rapid car cycle. What we are doing now is in some cases, sort of contrarian to what you might think, we are actually servicing customers more frequently and with shorter trains in some instances to A) increase the customer commitment that we want but it's also improving a lot of our labor costs.

是的，我們確實有多餘產能。至於未來，我簡單講個小故事。你可能沒聽過我們的 TSI 車載量（carload）倡議，但本質上，它是在落實你在我們營運指標中看到的——更快的車輛週轉。我們現在做的事情在某些情況下可能有點反直覺：我們其實更頻繁地服務客戶，且在某些情況下用更短的列車來運行，A) 以提高我們希望客戶做出的承諾，同時也在改善我們許多勞動成本。

So to your question, the next step function in there is maintaining that great service and good car cycle, but doing it with a lengthening train length. And that's where kind of the next level of productivity will really, really benefit us.

所以回到你的問題，下一個階段的躍升是在維持優異服務與良好車輛週轉的同時，把列車長度拉長。而那就是下一層級的生產力將真正、真正讓我們受益的地方。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Chris Wetherbee, Citi.

Chris Wetherbee，花旗。

Thanks, guys, good morning. Maybe a question just on -- just to make sure; I want to understand the coal outlook. When you put together the utility side and the export side for the fourth quarter, Clarence, did you mention that year over year we should see a lower number than what we saw in the third quarter? I just wanted to get a sense of kind of how we should be thinking about that cumulatively for the fourth quarter.

謝謝，各位，早安。也許問一個——只是確認一下；我想了解煤炭展望。Clarence，當你把第四季的公用事業端與出口端合在一起看時，你是否提到同比我們會看到一個比第三季更低的數字？我只是想了解一下，我們應該如何從累計角度來看第四季。

Yes, that is correct, Chris. From a percentage standpoint, it moderates so there is less --

是的，Chris，沒錯。從百分比的角度來看，它會趨緩，所以會比較少——

The utility does.

公用事業端會。

The utility does. Less decline than you saw in the third quarter. However, in terms of the absolute tons handled, it also goes down on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter.

公用事業端會。下滑幅度會比你在第三季看到的更小。不過，就處理的絕對噸數而言，第四季同比也會下降。

Total tons handled both export and utility?

總處理噸數，包含出口與公用事業？

No, utility.

不，公用事業端。

Okay, just utility. Okay.

好的，只是公用事業端。好的。

Export coal will exceed the 40 million tons that we exceeded last year, but due to the volatility in it we are just not sure how much at this time. But it will be another record year, third record year in a row for a CSX in export tonnage.

出口煤將會超過我們去年超過的 4,000 萬噸，但由於其波動性，我們目前不確定會多多少。但這將是又一個創紀錄的一年，對 CSX 而言，出口噸數將連續第三年創新高。

But it will moderate some in the export in the fourth quarter, right?

但第四季出口端會有所趨緩，對吧？

It will and the second half will still be --

會的，而且下半年仍將——

Year-over-year up.

同比成長。

Year-over-year up.

同比成長。

Okay. I thought I had heard you say it was going to be weaker on a percentage basis. So I shouldn't think that the 16% decline on total coal in the third quarter, it will be a larger negative number in the fourth quarter. That's not what you're saying?

好的。我以為我聽到你說百分比基礎上會更弱。所以我不應該認為第三季總煤炭下滑 16%，第四季會是更大的負數。你不是這個意思？

It is what we are saying. So year over year, the fourth quarter will probably be the most challenging quarter, even though utility coal volumes will probably moderate, as Clarence has said . Because we expect export coal to be down year over year, the total between the two is going to make the fourth quarter probably the most challenging quarter of the year in terms of year-over-year volume total.

我們的意思就是這樣。因此同比來看，第四季可能會是最具挑戰的一季，即使如 Clarence 所說，公用事業煤的運量可能會趨緩。因為我們預期出口煤同比會下滑，兩者合計將使第四季在同比總運量方面可能成為全年最具挑戰的一季。

Okay, all right. That's very helpful, thank you.

好的，沒問題。這非常有幫助，謝謝。

Then maybe switching gears onto the productivity side, Oscar, obviously it looks like you're on target to the $180 million-plus that you set last quarter. Just want to get a rough sense of kind of the line of sight onto that for the fourth quarter. Is there a possibility of potential upside there or what are the challenges that you see facing you for reaching that goal in the fourth quarter?

那麼也許把話題轉到生產力這一塊，Oscar，很明顯看起來你們正朝著上季設定的1.8億美元以上目標前進。我只是想大致了解一下，對於第四季達成該目標的可視度如何。是否有可能出現上行空間？或者你們在第四季達成該目標時會面臨哪些挑戰？

Well, the challenge is I think we are well on path to the $180 million-plus. We talked about sort of a pro-rata delivery I think. We are ahead of that game given the market outlook that you have seen.

嗯，我認為挑戰在於——我覺得我們正穩步朝著1.8億美元以上前進。我們談過某種按比例交付（pro-rata delivery）。以你所看到的市場展望來看，我們其實已經走在前面。

We have a great sense of where the future is headed in the near term and have taken the appropriate action, and so we are probably ahead of the game. And so we will expect probably a $20 million to $30 million number in the fourth quarter, but more on the high end given again the outlook. So well on path with a great deal of confidence.

我們對短期未來走向有很好的掌握，也採取了適當的行動，所以我們可能確實領先進度。因此我們預期第四季大概會是2,000萬到3,000萬美元的數字，但考量到展望，可能更偏向高端。所以我們很有信心，進度非常順利。

Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you for the time. I appreciate it.

好的，這非常有幫助。謝謝你撥冗。我很感激。

Chris Ceraso, Credit Suisse.

Chris Ceraso，瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）。

Thanks, good morning. So you have responded to the lower price of the commodity in the export markets for coal, but as we look forward as contracts start to roll over in domestic what is your expectation about maintaining price there?

謝謝，早安。你們已經因應出口市場煤炭商品價格下跌做出回應，但往前看，當國內合約開始到期續約時，你們對於維持價格的預期是什麼？

And maybe as a follow-up on that, you mentioned 75% of your contracts for 2013 are already locked in. Does that include any thermal coal contracts that have turned over or will be turning over?

另外追問一下，你提到你們2013年的合約已有75%鎖定。這是否包含任何已經到期或即將到期的動力煤（thermal coal）合約？

Chris, on the thermal contracts, as we mentioned earlier, we are in the process of negotiating most of those for the export side of the business in 2013. So that answer would be no.

Chris，關於動力煤合約，如同我們先前提到的，我們正在就2013年出口業務的大多數合約進行談判。所以答案是否定的。

On the utility side, going forward, I think there is two factors there. One is we are going to price to the market. And number two is that as less coal is shipped and coal itself becomes more variable than fixed then the cost of handling that goes up. And so our rates will have to reflect those increased costs going forward.

至於公用事業端（utility side），往前看我認為有兩個因素。第一，我們會依市場定價。第二，隨著煤炭出貨量減少、煤炭本身從固定變得更具變動性，處理成本就會上升。因此我們未來的費率必須反映這些增加的成本。

So we feel very positive about being able to make those recoveries going forward.

所以我們對於未來能夠回收這些成本感到非常正面。

Okay. Then just to follow-up on stockpiles; can you give us an update of where they are? Then maybe how you think about what normal stockpiles are given the lower volumes and given the change in coal's role in the dispatch curve?

了解。那再追問一下庫存；你能更新一下目前庫存水位在哪裡嗎？另外在量能較低、且煤炭在調度曲線（dispatch curve）中的角色改變的情況下，你們如何看待「正常」庫存水位？

In the Northeast the stockpiles are running between 60 and 62 days, which is about 30 to 32 days above normal. In the Southeast -- this data is according to PIRA -- the stockpile is running between 120 and 124 days and that is a normal 60 days. So about 60, 64 days above normal.

在東北部，庫存大約是60到62天，約比正常水準高出30到32天。在東南部——這些數據依PIRA——庫存大約是120到124天，而正常水準是60天。所以大約比正常高出60到64天。

And what was the last part of your question?

你問題的最後一部分是什麼？

Well, just have you thought about redefining what normal is given that there is a lower burn rate and that coal has become more of the swing fuel instead of a baseload?

嗯，就是你們是否考慮過重新定義「正常」是什麼，因為燃燒率（burn rate）較低，而且煤炭已從基載（baseload）變成更像是調節燃料（swing fuel）？

We are looking at it. We have some outside parties helping us to look at that also, because what has happened in the near term here with these low natural gas prices is gas has become more of a baseload and coal more the variable loads going in.

我們正在評估。我們也請了一些外部單位協助我們一起看，因為短期內在天然氣價格這麼低的情況下，天然氣變得更像基載，而煤炭則更像是進出調節的變動負載。

Right.

對。

So just don't know right now.

所以目前還不確定。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Justin Yagerman, Deutsche Bank.

Justin Yagerman，德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）。

Good morning, guys. A few questions here. In looking at your utility book was curious how much of that is actually rolling in 2013 and if you have previewed with those customers some of the thoughts that you have shared with investors around a more flexible service and how you price for that on a tiered basis. And whether or not you've gotten any feedback on that as you have marketed that idea.

各位早安。我這裡有幾個問題。看你們的公用事業合約組合（utility book），我想知道其中有多少會在2013年到期續約；以及你們是否已先和這些客戶溝通過一些你們對投資人分享的想法——例如更具彈性的服務，以及你們如何用分層（tiered）方式來定價。另外，你們在推廣這個概念時是否收到任何回饋？

Most of our utility contracts that come up for renewal in 2013 actually come up for renewal in late 2013.

我們大多數在2013年需要續約的公用事業合約，其實是在2013年較晚的時候才到期續約。

And what percentage is that of the book, Clarence?

Clarence，這占整體合約組合的百分比是多少？

That's going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20%-plus.

大概會在20%以上的區間。

20%-plus, okay.

20%以上，了解。

Number two is you asked -- we have begun discussions with utilities about the nature of taking coal. Now here's the feedback from the utilities. We have seen low gas prices before, so what we are not going to let ourselves do is get locked into one fuel source versus the other. We are going to dispatch according to the economics, but we recognize the fact that we have to protect the coal.

第二點，你問到——我們已開始與公用事業討論接收煤炭（taking coal）的性質。公用事業端的回饋是這樣：我們以前也看過低天然氣價格，所以我們不會讓自己被鎖定在某一種燃料來源、排除另一種。我們會依經濟性來調度，但我們也認知到必須保護煤炭。

So they are willing to enter into discussions with us on how can we best price that and protect a certain amount of that coal and then what do we do when there is peaks and spikes. And those discussions are ongoing.

因此他們願意和我們討論：我們要如何最好地定價、並保護一定量的煤炭；以及當出現尖峰與飆升（peaks and spikes）時我們要怎麼做。而這些討論仍在進行中。

Is it fair to say that because of that these will be shorter duration contracts most likely?

是否可以說，因為這樣，這些合約很可能會是較短的期限？

I don't know is the truth on that.

老實說，我不知道。

Okay. Clarence, quick question. You didn't give a breakout I don't -- or I didn't hear it of thermal versus met in the quarter in terms of export. Do you have that?

了解。Clarence，快速問一下。你沒有拆分——我不確定——或者我沒聽到本季出口中動力煤（thermal）與冶金煤（met）的占比。你有這個數字嗎？

Yes, 60%/40% in favor of met.

有的，冶金煤占60%、動力煤占40%。

Okay. When I think about the thermal side, how out of the money is $94 on the API 2 right now? And then when I think about what that means for volumes as you go into these contracts right now, how realistic is it that you could see flat to up volumes next year in thermal given where you are on the API 2 right now?

好的。談到動力煤這一端，以目前API 2來看，94美元現在差距有多大（out of the money）？再來，當我思考這對你們目前簽這些合約時的量意味著什麼，在目前API 2水準下，明年動力煤量能有可能持平到成長的可行性有多高？

Well, $94 is going to put us on the margin if you had to make the contract going forward today. There is some over capacity, as you could imagine, in the coal market on a global basis. It's really too volatile and too soon to tell.

嗯，如果你今天就必須往前簽合約，94美元會讓我們處在損益邊緣（on the margin）。如你所想像，全球煤炭市場確實存在一些產能過剩。波動太大、也還太早，現在很難判斷。

We will know a heck of a lot more, Justin, on that question in the first quarter as we can see how this thing is moving and what's happening to the economy in Europe and what kind of weather they have in Europe this winter.

Justin，關於這個問題，我們在第一季會清楚得多，因為到時候我們能看到走勢如何、歐洲經濟狀況如何，以及歐洲今年冬天的天氣會是什麼情況。

Okay. And last one, Fredrik, you guys got this 65% OR target. It sounds like there is a lot in flux when it comes to coal right now and, honestly, you guys put this target out there before we saw nat gas prices collapse.

好的。最後一個，Fredrik，你們有一個65%營運比率（OR）目標。聽起來目前煤炭相關有很多變動，而且老實說，你們提出這個目標是在我們看到天然氣價格崩跌之前。

Why stick with it here? Where is the confidence coming from in terms of line of sight if you've got so much variability?

為什麼要在這裡堅持這個目標？在能見度變動這麼大的情況下，你們的信心來源是什麼？

I get the productivity gains and I understand in the merchandise business the growth beyond GDP, but it will be hard to push the ball that far forward if coal is going to be ahead when both on export and on utility -- at least for the near-term foreseeable future. None of us have a crystal ball so who knows what happens two three years out. Why stick with this number here?

我理解生產力提升，也理解在商品運輸業務中成長可望超越GDP，但如果煤炭在出口與公用事業兩端——至少在可預見的短期內——仍將領先，那就很難把球推得那麼遠。我們都沒有水晶球，誰知道兩三年後會發生什麼。為什麼要在這裡堅持這個數字？

Well, you hit on it. First of all, it is three years out. When we issued the guidance, we had appropriately put in a fairly sizable contingency to deal with stuff along the way and obviously stuff happened with utility coal.

嗯，你說到重點了。首先，這是三年後的目標。當我們發布指引時，我們已適當納入相當可觀的預備空間來應對途中可能發生的事情，而顯然公用事業煤炭確實發生了狀況。

We have been pretty transparent that as that happen and as it occurred throughout the year we have said that it's going to be more challenging. And clearly, based on where we are today, it's going to be more back-end loaded than we thought originally to get there, but that is what this organization is rallying around.

我們一直相當透明地說明，隨著這些事情發生、並在全年持續出現，我們就表示這會更具挑戰性。而且很明顯，以我們今天所處的位置來看，要達成目標將比原先想的更偏向後段發力，但這正是整個組織正在凝聚並全力以赴的方向。

As we look at things right now, if we execute extremely well all the different parameters we have, we still think we can get there but a lot of things have to go right. We are going to go through our normal strategic plan process here this spring and review that with the Board. If there is additional color to be provided at that point we will do that.

就目前來看，如果我們在所有不同的參數上都能執行得非常到位，我們仍然認為可以達成，但必須有很多事情都要順利。今年春天我們會走完正常的策略規劃流程，並與董事會一起檢視。如果到那時需要提供更多細節，我們會提供。

But right now this is the goal that unifies this organization; this is the goal that we have the incentives rallying around. And right now we still I feel we have line of sight towards it.

但就目前而言，這是凝聚整個組織的目標；也是我們激勵機制所圍繞的目標。而現在我仍然覺得我們對此有能見度。

Fair enough. All right, thank you so much for the time guys.

可以理解。好，謝謝各位撥冗。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Securities.

TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Thanks very much, good morning. Just wanted to ask you a question in terms of resource levels, the furloughs, the retention boards, and the locomotives that you've got parked. Are you happy where you are based on the business outlook as it stands or is there more to go there?

非常感謝，早安。我想就資源水位、無薪假（furloughs）、留任委員會（retention boards），以及你們停放的機車數量問一個問題。以目前的業務展望來看，你們對現狀滿意嗎？還是還有進一步調整空間？

Michael closed his comments, Cherilyn -- this is Oscar -- with three questions. Do we believe a strong service product drives long-term growth? Are we managing the things that we can? Are we investing in the right things in the future? So you have to take all those three questions into account when you answer that question.

Michael 在結語時，Cherilyn——我是 Oscar——提出了三個問題。我們是否相信強而有力的服務產品能帶動長期成長？我們是否在管理我們能掌控的事情？我們是否在為未來投資正確的事情？所以你在回答那個問題時，必須把這三個問題都納入考量。

And so we are not yet confident there. There is a lot of uncertainty out there. What we are building, because of that uncertainty, is the ability to recover and move quickly.

因此我們目前還沒有足夠信心。外部仍有很多不確定性。也正因為這些不確定性，我們正在建立的是快速復原與迅速調整的能力。

For instance, as we put locomotives down, historically, the time to put them down and bring them back up has taken us quite a long time. Our efforts inside our team is to sort of accelerate that process so it becomes less of a variable for us.

例如，當我們讓機車停用時，過去把它們停下來再重新啟用，通常需要很長時間。我們團隊內部的努力，是加速這個流程，讓它對我們而言不再是那麼大的變數。

So, no, we are not. This is a constantly moving and dynamic business. We have to be flexible to it and we will continue to moderate the different scenarios as I spoke earlier and manage accordingly.

所以答案是否定的，我們還不滿意。這是一個持續變動、動態的業務。我們必須保持彈性，我們也會持續像我先前提到的那樣，調整不同情境並據此管理。

Okay. If I could ask a question on intermodal, I did notice from a carload standpoint you were up 8% year over year, but the RTMs were up 19%. So I was just wondering if you could speak about what's going on there in terms of mix impact.

好的。如果我可以問一個關於聯運（intermodal）問題，我確實注意到從車皮量（carload）的角度看，你們年增8%，但 RTM（收入噸英里）年增19%。所以我想請你們談談，這背後在組合（mix）影響方面發生了什麼。

Yes, Cherilyn, this is Clarence. We have looked at that several ways internally. We think there's two factors that could potentially be driving that.

是的，Cherilyn，我是 Clarence。我們內部用幾種方式看過這件事。我們認為可能有兩個因素在驅動。

The first one is our customers are making a concentrated effort to reduce the number of empty miles that they are hauling the containers. So it's a normal process; it's what's to be expected.

第一個是，我們的客戶正集中努力降低他們拖運貨櫃的空載里程數。所以這是正常流程，也是符合預期的。

But secondly is the mix of what we are actually exporting and importing and the weight that is in those containers. So, for example, in some of the businesses that we're doing now where we're exporting some grain products, some DDGs overseas they tend to be denser and heavier type commodities.

第二個則是我們實際出口與進口的貨品組合，以及那些貨櫃內貨物的重量。例如，我們目前在一些業務中出口某些穀物產品、一些 DDGs（乾燥酒糟）到海外，它們往往是密度更高、重量更重的商品。

Okay, thank you. That's interesting. That's all for me.

好的，謝謝。這很有意思。我這邊就到這裡。

Ben Hartford, Baird.

Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Morning. I guess, Oscar, can you talk a little bit about service. Service is, obviously, very strong here in 2012. To what extent has better -- maybe better than expected service.

早安。Oscar，我想請你談談服務。顯然你們在2012年的服務表現非常強勁。在多大程度上，更好的——也許是優於預期的——服務……

Maybe you can talk about how service has trended relative to your expectations and how meaningful that is in driving above this $180 million annual savings threshold this year. And does this improved level of service allow a line of sight to something greater than the $130 million to $140 million in annual savings that you had talked about a year ago when you were talking about that 65% OR target?

也許你可以談談服務表現相對於你們預期的趨勢，以及這對於今年把年度節省額推升到高於1.8億美元門檻有多重要。另外，這樣改善的服務水準，是否讓你們對於達成高於你們一年前在談65%營運比率（OR）目標時所提到的每年1.3億到1.4億美元節省額，有更高的能見度？

Great. I will stay out of the guidance business on that front, but you have laid it out very well. Better service is indeed cheaper for us and that has been the key focus across the different technology and process teams that we have done. Execution and great leadership out there.

很好。在這方面我不會進入指引的討論，但你把脈絡講得很清楚。更好的服務確實能降低我們的成本，而這一直是我們在不同技術與流程團隊所推動工作的核心重點。還有現場的執行力與卓越領導。

Your question is about whether the services exceed our expectations. I mean it is near an all-time record level, so I guess ostensibly you could say yes, but it is the new norm for us. Customers are expecting that and that is what we are focusing on.

你的問題是服務是否超出我們的預期。它接近歷史最高紀錄水準，所以表面上你可以說是的，但對我們而言這已是新的常態。客戶也期待如此，而這就是我們聚焦的方向。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jason Seidl, Dahlman Rose.

Dahlman Rose 的 Jason Seidl。

Morning, guys. How is everything? Couple quick questions.

早安，各位。一切都好嗎？兩個快速問題。

One, since -- I won't be beat coal to death too much here, but since you guys are talking about the expenses in the MS&O line you said it was going to continue on, some of the benefits, into 4Q. Should we consider that then to be ongoing into 2013 as well or is that going to dissipate after 4Q?

第一個，自從——我不會在這裡過度糾結煤炭，但既然你們在談 MS&O 項下的費用，你們說其中一些效益會延續到第四季。那我們是否應該把它視為2013年也會持續的常態？還是第四季之後就會消退？

On the MS&O line? Clarify the question just so I understand.

在 MS&O 這一項？請再釐清一下問題，讓我確定我理解正確。

Yes, sorry, Fred. On the MS&O line you said that you expected another benefit in 4Q but moderating, I think, somewhat from 3Q. Do you expect that to also continue into 2013?

是的，抱歉，Fred。在 MS&O 這一項，你說你預期第四季還會有另一個效益，但我想會比第三季稍微趨緩。你是否預期這也會延續到2013年？

You are referring to our SunRail gain? So what we have said on the SunRail gain is that we are expecting a similar amount that we saw here in the third quarter in the fourth quarter as well, but the year-over-year comparison (multiple speakers)

你指的是我們的 SunRail 處分利益（gain）嗎？關於 SunRail 的處分利益，我們的說法是，我們預期第四季也會有與第三季相近的金額，但年對年比較（多位講者）

Got you.

了解。

-- which is a little different since we had started recognizing the gain last year at a tune of $14 million.

——這點有些不同，因為我們去年就已開始認列該項收益，金額約為1,400萬美元。

Okay. And that is going to be done for the gain after 4Q?

好的。那麼這項收益會在第四季之後就全部完成嗎？

Yes. Right now, we have recognized to date about $83 million and the total gain is $160 million, so there is $77 million left. So a similar amount that we had here in the third quarter will be in the fourth quarter, so you will have about $50 million or so left to be recognized in 2013 and beyond.

是的。截至目前我們已認列約8,300萬美元，總收益為1.6億美元，因此還剩7,700萬美元。所以第四季會有與第三季類似的金額，因此2013年及之後仍約有5,000萬美元左右尚待認列。

Okay, very, very helpful. Last is on pricing overall. If you look, sort of ex-utility coal, it has moderated somewhat. Clarence, how much of that is due to just sort of a weaker economic environment and it has lowered your ability to grab price, and how much of it is due to sort of just lower inflationary cost-plus pricing?

好的，非常、非常有幫助。最後一題是關於整體定價。如果你看一下，撇除公用事業用煤（utility coal）後，定價似乎有所趨緩。Clarence，其中有多少是因為整體經濟環境較疲弱、降低了你們提價的能力？又有多少是因為通膨型的成本加成（cost-plus）定價壓力較低？

I would say there is the third factor. Most of it in utility coal is due to the legacy pricing over time because we started out in the first two or three, four years around 2004, 2005, and 2006 with a lot of legacy contracts that we could renew. Then in the subsequent years we had a second shot at those and now you are seeing a more normal pricing in those areas.

我會說還有第三個因素。公用事業用煤的大部分變化，來自於歷史合約定價隨時間推移的影響，因為我們在2004、2005、2006年前兩三年到三四年期間，一開始有很多可以續約的舊合約。之後幾年我們又有第二次機會處理那些合約，而現在你看到的是那些領域較為正常化的定價。

So it's almost like your golf score, the ability to get it lower and lower and lower becomes harder and harder and harder the better you get?

所以這幾乎就像你的高爾夫球成績一樣，越打越好之後，要再把成績越打越低就會越來越難、越來越難？

Well, that would not be true of my golf score, but it would be true --

嗯，這對我的高爾夫球成績不成立，但對這件事倒是成立——

Understood. I appreciate the time as always, guys.

了解。一如往常，感謝各位撥冗。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

David Vernon，Bernstein。

Good morning. So with the mix and weight changes that are going on in the intermodal business, Clarence, the 2% gain in RPU, how much of that is -- would you consider core price versus mix, weight, or length of haul change?

早安。Clarence，隨著聯運（intermodal）業務的組合與重量變化，RPU成長2%，其中有多少——你會認為是核心價格（core price），而不是組合、重量或運距（length of haul）變化？

I would consider most of it core price.

我會認為大部分是核心價格。

So the longer haul or the heavier weight stuff isn't -- you're not getting any benefit out of that? Or the shift from international to domestic, you're not getting an RPU lift from that or --?

所以較長運距或較重貨重的部分——你們沒有從中獲得任何好處嗎？或者從國際轉向國內的移轉，你們也沒有因此讓RPU上升，或——？

Where we do have mix and longer length of haul, yes, we are getting more money for that, but on the weight basis we're not because we are charging by the unit not by the weight.

在我們確實有組合改善與運距拉長的地方，是的，我們會因此收取更多費用；但就重量而言不會，因為我們是按單位計費，而不是按重量計費。

Okay. But the 2% gain is mostly price in intermodal?

好的。所以聯運的2%成長主要來自價格？

Yes.

是的。

And how heavily is the intermodal business weighted in that same-store sales ex export coal number?

那在同店銷售（same-store sales）扣除出口煤（export coal）的那個數字裡，聯運業務的權重有多高？

Now that I don't know.

這個我現在不知道。

I think that we provide pretty good transparency. What we have done here in this, by breaking out export coal -- I think that's the appropriate level. What we are trying to get across is to make sure people understand that overall pricing continues to be in line with what we said previously and it's at inflation-plus level.

我認為我們已提供相當好的透明度。我們在這裡把出口煤拆分出來——我認為這是適當的層級。我們想傳達的是，請大家理解整體定價仍符合我們先前所說的情況，維持在「通膨以上」（inflation-plus）的水準。

Okay, great. Then just one last technical question. On slide seven, the fuel recovery number down $24 million, is that fuel surcharge revenue down $24 million? Am I reading that right?

好的，很好。那最後一個技術性問題。第七頁投影片上，燃油回收（fuel recovery）數字減少2,400萬美元，是指燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）收入減少2,400萬美元嗎？我這樣解讀對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great. Thank you very much.

很好。非常感謝。

John Larkin, Stifel Nicolaus.

John Larkin，Stifel Nicolaus。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions here this morning.

早安。謝謝今天早上回答我的問題。

On the intermodal side, could you remind us what the international intermodal volume would be year over year and the overall intermodal volume would be year over year ex the Maersk win, which I think anniversaries on 1/1/2013?

在聯運方面，能否提醒我們國際聯運量的年增率會是多少？以及若排除Maersk這筆新增業務（我想會在2013/1/1滿周年），整體聯運量的年增率會是多少？

The international volume on a year-over-year basis, John, have been essentially flat.

John，國際運量以年對年來看基本上持平。

And the total?

那總量呢？

I don't have it broken down by total. I've got what the domestic increases are.

我沒有把總量再做拆分。我手上有的是國內部分的增幅。

Okay. Then are there any other customers that find the Northwest Ohio hub as attractive as apparently Maersk did? Are you on the verge of any additional market share capture as a result of that strategy, which is quite a bit different than [brand] exit strategy?

好的。那還有其他客戶也覺得西北俄亥俄（Northwest Ohio）樞紐像Maersk顯然認為的那樣有吸引力嗎？你們是否因為這個策略——它與[brand]退出策略相當不同——而即將再取得更多市占？

Well, I think we mentioned a couple of earnings releases ago that one of the principal reasons Hyundai chose CSX was because of the advantages that Northwest Ohio has given us. We have gotten in the past year since the terminal has been open rave reviews from all of our customers about the facility. It is living up to all the things that we had promised that it would live up to.

嗯，我想我們在幾次前的財報新聞稿中提到，Hyundai選擇CSX的主要原因之一，就是西北俄亥俄帶給我們的優勢。在碼頭啟用後的過去一年裡，我們從所有客戶那裡都收到對該設施的高度好評。它確實達成了我們先前承諾它會達成的所有目標。

Based on that, we think that we've got about where we are going to be in the market share side on the north and we are going to be able to retain the market share.

基於此，我們認為在北部市場的市占率大致已到我們預期的水準，而且我們將能夠維持這個市占率。

Okay. Given that that has worked so well, is there any reason to think that it might be worth taking a look at perhaps putting together a similar hub perhaps somewhere in the Southeast that would give you the same sort of flexibility that you now have in the Midwest?

好的。既然這個做法成效這麼好，有沒有理由認為值得評估在東南部某處建立類似的樞紐，讓你們也能獲得像現在在中西部一樣的彈性？

Well, John, we are looking at all kinds of opportunities in the Southeast as the network gets more complex. So I just don't know right this minute.

嗯，John，隨著網路變得更複雜，我們正在東南部評估各種機會。所以我現在一時還無法確定。

All right. Thanks very much.

好。非常感謝。

Jeff Kauffman, Sterne Agee.

Jeff Kauffman，Sterne Agee。

Good morning, Sal Vitale on for Jeff Kauffman. Just a quick question; you mentioned softening global demand for metallurgical export coal in 4Q. How quickly do you think that we could see the affect of the new steel projects in China as a result of the recently announced stimulus measures there?

早安，我是代Jeff Kauffman提問的Sal Vitale。簡單問一下；你提到第四季冶金用出口煤（metallurgical export coal）的全球需求轉弱。你認為我們會多快看到中國近期宣布刺激措施後，新鋼鐵專案帶來的影響？

We have already seen, started to see rising Chinese iron ore prices and steel prices in response. How quickly do you think that could take effect?

我們已經看到中國鐵礦砂價格與鋼價開始上漲作為回應。你認為這會多快開始發酵？

Well, I'm not sure I know the answer to that and I will tell you the reason that I say that. As of last week, there's a lot of unsold coal that's off the coast of China in vessels right now, so the Chinese are playing a cat and mouse game of I will wait till the prices go down and I will buy.

嗯，我不確定我知道答案，我也說明一下原因。截至上週，中國沿海目前有大量尚未售出的煤炭堆在船上，所以中國正在玩一種貓捉老鼠的遊戲：我會等到價格下跌再買。

As soon as that backlog is worked off, and assuming with the new regime changes in Beijing that they continue to stimulate the economy , then you could see that some time in the first/second quarter.

一旦那個積壓量被消化掉，而且假設北京的新一屆政權更迭後仍持續刺激經濟，那你可能會在第一季/第二季的某個時點看到影響。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Anthony Gallo, Wells Fargo.

Anthony Gallo，Wells Fargo。

Good morning. Congratulations on the service and safety, really remarkable recovery there.

早安。恭喜你們在服務與安全方面的表現，這次復原真的非常了不起。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit about agriculture for 2013 and I'm thinking about it in the context of what your business has historically seen following the type of drought that we had this year. I suspect increased planting drives fertilizer, etc. Can you put a little color around what 2013 could look like following the type of drought we had this year?

我希望您能談談 2013 年的農業情況；我是在這樣的脈絡下思考：就您們的業務而言，歷史上在像今年這種乾旱之後通常會看到什麼樣的情況。我猜測播種增加會帶動肥料等需求。您能否補充一些細節，談談在今年這種乾旱之後，2013 年可能會是什麼樣子？

Well, here is our view. On the ag side of the business you won't see any significant upswing in shipments until the late third quarter and fourth quarter of next year, because we literally got to plant the crop and grow it.

嗯，這是我們的看法。在農業業務這一端，直到明年第三季末與第四季，你們才會看到出貨量有任何顯著上升，因為我們確實得先把作物種下去並讓它生長。

Second factor is you will see -- as far as the Eastern roads go, this will not be true of West -- you will see less exports, grains moving to export. Historically, for our mix of business, we are about 40% feed, 40% ethanol, and 20% export, so you will see less of that. A lesser impact could come in the ethanol market as energy credits are used in lieu of production while prices of corn are as high as they are on a per bushel basis.

第二個因素是——就東部鐵路而言，西部不適用——你們會看到出口量下降，也就是運往出口的穀物減少。以我們的業務組合來看，歷來大約 40% 是飼料、40% 是乙醇、20% 是出口，所以那一塊會變少。乙醇市場也可能受到較小的影響，因為在玉米每蒲式耳價格如此之高的情況下，能源抵減額度可能會被用來替代實際生產。

We do believe that in the next planting season here that the crop will -- the farmers and the market itself will adapt for this and we will have heavy plantings. Our phosphate fertilizer shipments are staying reasonably robust. As a result of the drought, there is some belief that there is nutrients still in the soil. We will know more about that in the first quarter as the spring planting and spring fertilizing comes in.

我們確實相信，在接下來這個播種季，作物——農民以及市場本身——會為此調整，我們將會看到大量播種。我們的磷酸鹽肥料出貨仍維持相當強勁。由於乾旱，有一種看法認為土壤裡仍殘留一些養分。隨著春季播種與春季施肥展開，我們在第一季會更清楚。

Did that help?

這樣有幫助嗎？

Very helpful, thank you.

非常有幫助，謝謝。

Pete Nesvold, Jefferies & Co.

Pete Nesvold，Jefferies & Co.。

Morning. So my operational questions have been answered. On the financial side maybe, thinking about the dividend rolling forward to 2Q as well as share repurchases which will be exhausted by the end of this calendar year. Understanding that both of those are Board positions, I'm interested in hearing management's perspective on each of those.

早安。所以我在營運面的問題都已經得到解答。在財務面，想請教一下：展望到第二季的股利，以及到今年年底就會用完的庫藏股回購額度。我理解這兩者都屬於董事會決策，但我想聽聽管理層對這兩件事各自的看法。

I mean you are at 31% payout right now last four quarters. Arguably we're probably looking at flattish type earnings, maybe slightly down 4Q and 1Q. It would still leave some headroom -- there is headroom still to the higher end of your payout range, so when you think about increasing the dividend -- well, let me ask you, is it about seeing earnings growth year over year in 2Q? Is that sort of the primary catalyst for raising of the dividend, or do you like to continually raise the dividend each year?

我的意思是，你們目前過去四個季度的配息率是 31%。可以說我們可能正面臨一段較為持平的獲利，第四季與第一季也許會小幅下滑。即便如此，仍會留有一些空間——距離你們配息率區間的上緣仍有餘裕；所以當你思考提高股利時——嗯，我想問你：是否要看到第二季的獲利年增，才是提高股利的主要催化劑？還是你們傾向於每年持續提高股利？

Then separately, you have been shrinking the share count by about 50 million shares each year. If we are in for sort of a flattish earnings period here for a bit, what's the appetite to reload and to continue to shrink the share count at roughly that level? Thank you.

另外，你們每年大約把流通股數縮減 5,000 萬股。如果我們接下來一段時間的獲利大致持平，那麼你們重新啟動（回購額度）並持續以大約同樣幅度縮減股數的意願有多大？謝謝。

Well, let me start with the share repurchase program question. So you know that we have about $234 million left of the current program and that is our number one priority right now to complete that by the end of the year.

好，我先從庫藏股回購計畫的問題開始。你知道我們目前這個計畫還剩大約 2.34 億美元，而我們現在的第一優先要務，就是在年底前把它執行完畢。

As we get into our plan process and review with the Board for next year, we will see what sort of free cash levels we have. At that point, we will size that program appropriately. We have said publicly that predominately it should be funded by free cash flow, but we also can use some balance sheet capacity if we think that is appropriate. But predominately free cash flow.

當我們進入明年的規劃流程並與董事會檢視時，我們會看看我們有多少自由現金流。到那時，我們會適當地決定該計畫的規模。我們已公開表示，原則上應以自由現金流來支應，但如果我們認為合適，也可以動用部分資產負債表的承載能力。但主要仍是自由現金流。

So we get to the first quarter we will have an update and a view of that. On the dividend side, I think we've been very transparent, between 30% to 35%. That is what we are going to target going forward. I think we will see what the fourth and first quarter does in terms of earnings, and based on that, we will size it accordingly. But the parameters between 30% and 35% is really the key driver.

所以到第一季我們會更新並提出我們的看法。至於股利方面，我想我們一直非常透明：30% 到 35%。這就是我們未來要鎖定的目標。我想我們會觀察第四季與第一季的獲利表現，並據此決定規模。但 30% 到 35% 這個區間參數才是真正的關鍵驅動因素。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Donald Broughton, Avondale Partners.

Donald Broughton，Avondale Partners。

Good morning. As cars on line are down over 7%, almost 8%, can you give us some color on what -- the complexion of the cars you put into storage? How many of them and what classification?

早安。由於在線車輛數下降超過 7%、接近 8%，你能否補充一些細節——關於你們放入封存（storage）的車輛組成？有多少輛、以及屬於哪些分類？

Yes, Donald, it's Oscar. Many of the cars in storage are older gondolas for the metals and coal business, as well as some covered hoppers. And some of these are just historic simply due to the normal seasonality.

是的，Donald，我是 Oscar。封存中的許多車輛是較舊的敞車（gondolas），用於金屬與煤炭業務，另外也有一些有蓋漏斗車（covered hoppers）。其中有些其實是歷史性的配置，單純是因為正常的季節性因素。

Again, back to an earlier point, these are stored in strategic places where when we need them we can pull them back into service very quickly.

再回到先前提到的一點，這些車輛被存放在策略性地點，因此當我們需要時，可以非常快速地把它們調回投入營運。

Sure, that makes sense. Thank you.

當然，這很合理。謝謝。

Matthew Troy, Susquehanna.

Matthew Troy，Susquehanna。

Good morning. Going back to the golf analogy before, this is starting to feel like a five-hour round. Let me just ask a simple question.

早安。回到剛才的高爾夫比喻，這開始讓人覺得像打一場五小時的球局。我就問一個簡單的問題。

Tell us about it.

說說看。

RCAF is a primary metric of rail inflation, but has been limited in its application in recent years. Just wondering what percentage of your contract base on your book of business is tied to RCAF and how should we look at that as a directional indication of rail inflation as we try and determine what rail inflation-plus actually might mean? What are your assumptions there?

RCAF 是衡量鐵路通膨的主要指標，但近年在應用上有所受限。想請教一下：在你們的業務合約基礎中，有多少比例與 RCAF 連動？以及當我們試圖判斷所謂「鐵路通膨加成（rail inflation-plus）」實際可能代表什麼時，應該如何把它視為一個方向性的鐵路通膨指標？你們的假設是什麼？

Well, RCAF represents about one-third -- RCAF less fuel represents about one-third of our business. We look at -- we use Global Insights forecasting to look at what we think RCAF is going to be on a forward-looking basis.

嗯，RCAF 約占我們業務的三分之一——扣除燃料的 RCAF 約占我們業務的三分之一。我們會使用 Global Insights 的預測，來評估我們認為 RCAF 在前瞻基礎上會是多少。

And over time RCAF seems to be gravitating somewhere between 3% and 4%.

而且隨著時間推移，RCAF 似乎會趨向於落在 3% 到 4% 之間。

Yes, 3% and 4%.

是的，3% 到 4%。

And I think that's a good proxy for our inflation-plus pricing comments as well.

我認為這也可以作為我們所說「通膨加成」定價評論的一個不錯的替代指標（proxy）。

All right, thank you.

好，謝謝。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital.

Walter Spracklin，RBC Capital。

Good morning. This is Erin Lytollis in for Walter. Just a quick question for you on the domestic intermodal side.

早安。我是代替 Walter 的 Erin Lytollis。我有一個關於國內聯運（intermodal）業務的快速問題。

You've previously identified about 9 million units of truckload conversion opportunity in Eastern market. Can you give us some color on what your targets are and your timelines are for converting this traffic?

你們先前指出，在東部市場大約有 900 萬個單位的卡車整車（truckload）轉換機會。你能否補充一些細節，談談你們轉換這些貨量的目標與時間表？

Well, we are meeting with our customers now and the beneficial cargo owners on regular basis. We have some models that we can run that shows which of that business is conducive to being converted over to intermodal. We do that along with our truckload partners and our IMCs as well. And so we are targeting to turn as much of it as quickly as we can, to be honest with you.

嗯，我們目前正與客戶以及貨主（beneficial cargo owners）定期會面。我們有一些模型可以運行，用來顯示其中哪些業務適合轉換為聯運。我們也會與我們的整車合作夥伴以及 IMC（聯運行銷公司）一起進行這項工作。所以坦白說，我們的目標是能多快就多快地把它轉過來。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，很好。謝謝。

Mark Levin, BB&T Capital Markets.

Mark Levin，BB&T Capital Markets。

Thank you. Just a big picture question as you kind of think about the utility market going forward. Obviously seeing massive declines in Central Appalachia, particularly on the steam side.

謝謝。我想從宏觀角度問一個問題，關於你們如何看待未來的公用事業市場。顯然我們看到中阿帕拉契亞（Central Appalachia）大幅下滑，特別是在動力煤（steam）方面。

Clarence, if you kind of think about what Central App steam production looks like over the next couple of years relative to your sort of market stabilization, how do you reconcile the two? Because it seems like just given the cost structure in Central App, unless natural gas prices get a massive, massive surge that the production decline, particularly on the thermal side, is going to continue?

Clarence，如果你思考未來幾年中阿帕拉契亞動力煤產量的樣貌，並與你所說的市場穩定化相對照，你要如何調和這兩者？因為看起來以中阿帕拉契亞的成本結構而言，除非天然氣價格出現非常、非常大的飆升，否則產量下滑——尤其在燃煤發電用的動力煤端——似乎會持續？

Then related to that point, the Illinois Basin, what type of growth should we expect out of the Illinois Basin to maybe offset some of that steam decline in CAPP?

另外相關的一點，伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin）方面，我們應該預期伊利諾伊盆地會有什麼樣的成長，來抵消中阿帕拉契亞動力煤的一些下滑？

Well, I think you'll continue to see declines in Central Appalachian production. You haven't seen it over years; it is forecasted by a lot of the coal companies that it will, in fact, decline.

我認為你會持續看到中阿帕拉契亞的產量下滑。你多年來其實還沒看到那樣的情況；但許多煤炭公司都預測它確實會下滑。

As my colleague, Oscar Munoz, can attest to here, there is great growth that is occurring in the Illinois Basin. That growth is both as a result of the high BTU content and the fact that the power plants are scrubbed, number one. Number two, it's a lower-cost coal, which makes it at a lower price point versus natural gas. And so we think that that for us can bode positive as well as Northern Appalachian coal, which is serving a lot -- both our export markets and serving our utility markets there.

正如我的同事 Oscar Munoz 在這裡可以作證，伊利諾伊盆地正在出現很大的成長。這個成長一方面來自其高 BTU（熱值）含量，以及發電廠已加裝脫硫設備（scrubbed），這是第一點。第二點，它是成本較低的煤，因此相較天然氣能以較低的價格點競爭。所以我們認為，這對我們而言也可能是正面的；此外還有北阿帕拉契亞煤（Northern Appalachian coal），它同時服務我們許多——包括出口市場以及公用事業市場。

Does that answer you?

這樣有回答到你的問題嗎？

Well, if you kind of think about the mix in a couple of years, Illinois Basin today versus CAPP today, and then maybe in a couple of years how could you see that mix changing on the steam side?

如果你思考未來兩三年的組合，今天的伊利諾伊盆地相對於今天的中阿帕拉契亞，然後再看兩三年後，在動力煤端你會如何看待這個組合的變化？

I would see it heavily weighted towards Illinois Basin.

我會認為會大幅偏向伊利諾伊盆地。

And enough to offset -- do you think enough to offset the potential decline in CAPP steam over the next couple years?

而且你覺得這樣足以抵消——足以抵消未來幾年中阿帕拉契亞動力煤可能的下滑嗎？

Well, the problem that I'm having with answering that question is what's going to determine the steam is going to be what the utility burns. And so, if you are sitting in our shoes, whether it comes out of Illinois Basin or CAPP Basin, we just want to haul it.

我在回答這個問題時遇到的困難是，動力煤的需求最終取決於公用事業燒什麼煤。所以如果你站在我們的立場，不管是來自伊利諾伊盆地或是中阿帕拉契亞盆地，我們只是希望能把它運走。

Yes, makes sense. Thanks very much, appreciate it.

是的，合理。非常感謝，感激不盡。

Keith Schoonmaker, Morningstar.

Keith Schoonmaker，Morningstar。

Good morning, Keith, and thank you for your patience.

早安，Keith，謝謝你的耐心等候。

Sure. Questions are getting a little dry at this point I think.

當然。我想這時候問題有點快問乾了。

A service question for you. On-time originations and arrivals improved pretty impressively, 25% to 30%. I'm sure this is due in part to Oscar's arrival as COO, but also were there easy comps or simply lower congestion in the coal system? What drove such dramatic improvement?

我有一個服務面的問題。準時發車與準時到達的表現改善得相當驚人，提升了 25% 到 30%。我確定這部分原因是 Oscar 上任 COO，但另外是否也有基期較容易比較，或只是煤炭系統的壅塞降低？是什麼驅動了如此顯著的改善？

I think it has nothing to do with me I suspect. We have a great team out there. I think it's the additional resources that we geared up for last year. I think one of the things we got caught up is not having quite enough and so we've adequately resourced around that.

我想這大概跟我無關。我們有一支很棒的團隊在外面。我認為是我們去年加碼配置的額外資源。我想我們之前被卡住的一點是資源不太夠，所以我們已經在這方面做了足夠的資源配置。

Our operating plan has been running very smoothly. Certainly you mentioned kind of lower volumes, but, again, as Michael has mentioned and Clarence has mentioned, our overall volume growth this quarter was actually fairly robust, absent the coal business. And so lower volumes is not necessarily a big factor in that. It is around execution and the performance of our team.

我們的營運計畫一直運作得很順暢。你當然提到某種程度的低運量，但同樣地，如 Michael 與 Clarence 所提，我們本季整體運量成長其實相當強勁，若不計煤炭業務。因此低運量不一定是主要因素。關鍵在於執行力與我們團隊的表現。

And maybe one more quick one, Oscar. You mentioned I think in your remarks locomotive fuel management tools. Can you comment on how broadly you have rolled out travel selection position guidance software? Is this a pretty material lever on further reducing fuel expense?

再問一個很快的問題，Oscar。你在談話中提到機車燃料管理工具。你能評論一下你們將行車選線／操控指引軟體（travel selection position guidance software）推廣到多大範圍了嗎？這是否是進一步降低燃料費用的一個相當重要的槓桿？

It is a material -- it will be an increasingly more material lever. We are in the genesis of that, so we are probably maybe a sixth of the way in as to where we want to be. The tool is called Trip Optimizer and it is a neat tool that has been helpful. You saw some of the fuel efficiency in Fred's presentation and that will continue.

這是一個重要的——而且會愈來愈重要的槓桿。我們目前還在起步階段，所以就我們想達到的目標而言，大概只完成了六分之一左右。這個工具叫 Trip Optimizer，是個很棒的工具，確實很有幫助。你在 Fred 的簡報中看到一些燃油效率的成果，這個趨勢會持續。

Any thoughts on nat gas as a viable locomotive fuel?

對於天然氣作為可行的機車燃料，有什麼想法嗎？

It is an exciting concept. Most of the locomotive manufacturers are actively working it. There is some pilot tests being done within the rail industry. Outside of rail a lot of heavy industry out there is putting that new technology into action.

這是一個令人振奮的概念。大多數機車製造商都在積極投入。鐵路產業內也正在進行一些試點測試。在鐵路以外，許多重工業也正在把這項新技術付諸實行。

We will be very open and very flexible in understanding the merits and sort of pivot accordingly when the time is right.

我們會非常開放、也非常有彈性地去理解其優點，並在時機成熟時相應調整方向。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, thank you all for attending the conference today. We will see you in another quarter.

好的，感謝各位今天參加本次會議。我們下一季再見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷電話線。