CSX Corporation (CSX) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the CSX Corporation first-quarter 2013 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During the call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation.

各位女士、先生，早安。歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2013 年第一季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。會議期間，所有與會者將以只聽模式參與。接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。

Thank you, Maryanne, and good morning, everyone. And, again, welcome to CSX Corporation's first-quarter 2013 earnings presentation. The presentation materials that we'll review this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the Investor section. In addition, following the presentation this morning, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on that same website. Here representing CSX Corporation this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝妳，Maryanne，各位早安。再次歡迎各位參加 CSX Corporation 2013 年第一季財報簡報。我們今天上午將檢視的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可在 CSX.com 的「投資人」專區取得。此外，今天上午簡報結束後，網路直播與播客的重播也將在同一網站提供。今天代表 CSX Corporation 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。

Now, before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure and the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements, as well as risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by those statements.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報以及公司所做的其他陳述包含前瞻性聲明。建議各位查閱公司揭露文件以及簡報第 2 頁的相關說明。該揭露內容指出哪些屬於前瞻性聲明，並說明可能導致實際表現與這些聲明所預期結果出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With 30 analysts covering CSX, I would ask, as a courtesy for everyone, to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question. With that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

另外也提醒各位，在簡報結束時，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。目前有 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，為了讓大家都能順利提問，敬請每位提問者以一個主要問題加上一個追問為限。接下來，我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Last evening CSX reported record first-quarter earnings per share of $0.45, with another excellent productivity performance by the team and a couple of unique items that helped the quarter. The underlying strength of our business continues, even with the transition that is taking place in the domestic coal market. Looking at the top line, revenue was $3 billion, essentially flat versus last year. With gains in merchandise, intermodal and other revenue offsetting the declines in coal. The operating team is producing industry-leading results in safety. And is driving excellent service and efficiency for our customers and you, our shareholders. Bottom line, we set record first-quarter for operating income at $875 million, and for operating ratio at 70.4%.

謝謝你，David，各位早安。昨晚 CSX 公布每股盈餘創下第一季新高，達到 0.45 美元；團隊再次展現優異的生產力表現，且有幾項特殊因素也對本季有所助益。即使國內煤炭市場正處於轉型之中，我們業務的基本面強勁仍在延續。從營收來看，營收為 30 億美元，與去年相比基本持平。商品運輸、聯運及其他收入的成長，抵銷了煤炭業務的下滑。營運團隊在安全方面持續交出業界領先的成果。並為我們的客戶以及各位股東帶來卓越的服務與效率。總結而言，我們第一季營業利益創下新高，達 8.75 億美元；營業比率亦創第一季新低，為 70.4%。

We also issued new financial guidance, reflecting our confidence in the future. And rewarded shareholders with another increase in the quarterly dividend and a new share repurchase program. As the team walks you through the results this morning, I think you'll see evidence of a company that is doing very well in the current environment. And is well-positioned to achieve even greater results longer term, as the economy eventually accelerates, the domestic coal market begins to stabilize, and the industry fundamentals continue to evolve.

我們也發布了新的財務指引，反映我們對未來的信心。並透過再次調升季度股利以及推出新的庫藏股回購計畫來回饋股東。當團隊今天上午帶各位檢視成果時，我想各位會看到證據顯示，公司在目前環境下表現非常出色。而且從長期來看也具備良好定位，可在經濟最終加速、國內煤炭市場開始趨於穩定，以及產業基本面持續演變之際，達成更佳的成果。

With that, let me turn the presentation over to Clarence to review what we are seeing in the broader economy, how this relates to our top-line results, and more importantly, what this means for the outlook ahead. Clarence?

接下來，我把簡報交給 Clarence，請他說明我們在整體經濟中看到的情況、這與我們營收表現的關聯，更重要的是，這對未來展望意味著什麼。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning. Looking at the key economic indicators, they continue to point to slow, steady growth in the US economy. Starting on the left side of the chart, the Purchasing Managers Index registered a reading of 51.3% in March, reflecting a modest expansion of US manufacturing. At the same time, the Customers Inventory Index registered a reading of 47.5%, indicating respondents believe their inventories are still slightly below normal levels. Looking at the right side of the chart, both GDP and IDP rates reflected expansion in the quarter. Forward projections show continued slow growth in the near term, with improved growth rates later in the year. Overall, transportation demand in the markets we serve was mixed in the first quarter, consistent with the broader economic environment.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。從主要經濟指標來看，它們仍指向美國經濟緩慢但穩健的成長。從圖表左側開始看，採購經理人指數（PMI）在 3 月為 51.3%，反映美國製造業溫和擴張。同時，客戶庫存指數為 47.5%，顯示受訪者認為其庫存水準仍略低於正常水準。再看圖表右側，GDP 與 IDP 的成長率在本季皆反映出擴張。前瞻預測顯示短期內仍將維持緩慢成長，而今年稍晚成長率可望改善。整體而言，我們所服務市場的運輸需求在第一季表現分歧，與更廣泛的經濟環境一致。

Now, let's look at overall revenue. Total first-quarter revenue of nearly $3 billion was essentially flat compared to the prior year. Starting to the left, the combination of rate and mix was favorable by $28 million in the quarter. Here, core pricing gains and liquidated damages, which increased $32 million year over year, were partially offset by the unfavorable mix impact related to the growth in intermodal versus the decline in coal. Moving to the right, volume had an unfavorable impact of $39 million in the quarter, as volume growth in chemicals and intermodal was more than offset by declines in coal and agricultural products. Finally, fuel recovery increased $3 million in the quarter, as diesel fuel prices were relatively stable, year over year.

接著來看整體營收。第一季總營收接近 30 億美元，與去年同期相比基本持平。從左側開始看，運價與組合的綜合影響在本季有利，貢獻 2,800 萬美元。其中，核心定價的提升與違約金（liquidated damages）年增 3,200 萬美元，部分被不利的組合影響所抵銷；該不利組合主要來自聯運成長相對於煤炭下滑所造成的結構變化。往右看，運量在本季帶來 3,900 萬美元的不利影響，因化學品與聯運的運量成長，仍被煤炭與農產品的下滑所抵銷。最後，燃油回收在本季增加 300 萬美元，因柴油價格與去年同期相比相對穩定。

Now, let's turn to pricing. Core pricing on a same-store sales basis remained solid across nearly all markets. Recall that same-store sales are defined as shipments with the same customer, commodity and car type, and the same origin and destination. These shipments represented 76% of CSX's traffic base for the quarter. Looking at the chart, overall pricing, shown on the blue bars, increased 0.3% in the first quarter, which reflects the more challenging export coal market. The gold bars, which exclude export coal, showed pricing gains of 4.1% in the quarter, exceeding rail inflation, and consistent with the performance in prior quarters. Looking forward, a strong service product provides a solid foundation for pricing above rail inflation over the long term. Given our confidence in the value of our product offering and the need for the ongoing reinvestment in the business, we remain focused on profitable growth.

接下來談定價。以同店銷售基礎衡量的核心定價，在幾乎所有市場仍維持穩健。提醒各位，同店銷售的定義為：同一客戶、同一商品與車種，且起訖地相同的出貨。這些出貨在本季占 CSX 運量基礎的 76%。從圖表來看，以藍色長條呈現的整體定價在第一季上升 0.3%，反映出口煤炭市場更具挑戰。以金色長條呈現、排除出口煤炭後的定價在本季上升 4.1%，高於鐵路通膨，且與前幾季的表現一致。展望未來，強勁的服務產品為長期實現高於鐵路通膨的定價提供了穩固基礎。基於我們對產品價值的信心，以及業務持續再投資的需要，我們仍專注於獲利性成長。

Let's turn to the next slide and take a closer look at the volume. Total volume declined 2% in the quarter versus the same period last year, with mixed performance across the diverse markets we serve. Intermodal and the industrial sector delivered solid growth in the quarter. High service levels helped generate growth in the domestic intermodal market, and captured opportunities in domestic manufacturing in the growing oil and gas industry. Growth in these sectors was more than offset by declines in the construction, agricultural and coal sectors, where market fundamentals remain challenged.

我們來看下一頁，更深入檢視運量。本季總運量較去年同期下降 2%，我們所服務的多元市場表現分歧。聯運與工業部門在本季帶來穩健成長。高水準的服務有助於帶動國內聯運市場成長，並在成長中的油氣產業中，掌握國內製造業的機會。然而，這些領域的成長仍被建築、農業與煤炭部門的下滑所抵銷，這些市場的基本面仍面臨挑戰。

Now, let's look at the individual markets in more detail, starting with coal. Coal revenue declined 13% to $726 million. Although the demand for electricity grew, and natural gas prices rose at the end of the quarter, domestic volume declined 14% as inventory levels at the utilities remained high. Export coal volume declined 3% as demand from thermal coal softened, particularly in Europe where broader economic conditions remain weak. Total revenue per unit was down 3%, as lower export pricing more than offset core pricing gains in the domestic markets. Looking ahead, domestic coal headwinds persist, although we expect volume to be relatively stable on a sequential basis. For the full year, we continue to anticipate domestic volume will decline about 5% to 10%. At the same time, our best estimate for 2013 export coal volume remains about 40 million tons. And year-over-year pricing declines should moderate throughout the year.

現在，讓我們從煤炭開始，更詳細地檢視各個個別市場。煤炭營收下滑 13% 至 7.26 億美元。儘管用電需求成長，且季度末天然氣價格上揚，但由於公用事業端庫存水位仍高，國內運量下滑 14%。出口煤運量下滑 3%，因動力煤需求轉弱，尤其在歐洲，整體經濟情勢仍然疲弱。每單位總營收下滑 3%，因較低的出口定價降幅，超過了國內市場核心定價的增益。展望未來，國內煤炭的不利因素仍在，儘管我們預期運量在環比基礎上將相對穩定。就全年而言，我們仍預期國內運量將下滑約 5% 至 10%。同時，我們對 2013 年出口煤運量的最佳估計仍約為 4,000 萬噸。而同比的定價下滑幅度應會在全年逐步趨緩。

Next, let's look at Merchandise. Overall, Merchandise revenue increased 2% to over $1.7 billion. Chemicals was the key driver in the industrial sector, growing 11% on strength in energy-related products including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and frac sand. In the agricultural sector, feed grain shipments to the Southeast were lower as a result of last year's severe drought in the Midwest. In addition, ethanol shipments declined as a result of lower production, increased competition from imports and lower gasoline demand. Regarding the construction sector, building products and aggregates increased on the strength of a slowly improving housing environment. However, this was partially offset by lower shipments of paper products as the use of electronic media continued to replace paper.

接下來，讓我們看看商品業務（Merchandise）。整體而言，商品業務營收成長 2%，至超過 17 億美元。工業部門中，化學品是主要驅動因素，受能源相關產品（包括原油、液化石油氣與壓裂砂）走強帶動，成長 11%。農業部門方面，由於去年中西部嚴重乾旱，運往東南部的飼料穀物出貨量較低。此外，乙醇出貨量下滑，原因包括產量降低、進口競爭加劇以及汽油需求下降。就建築部門而言，受住房環境緩步改善帶動，建材與骨材出貨增加。然而，隨著電子媒體持續取代紙張使用，紙製品出貨下降，部分抵銷了上述增長。

Looking at the second quarter, in the industrial sector, we continued to see growth opportunities in chemicals, particularly in commodities related to the oil and gas drilling. The automotive market will remain strong, although we are now cycling tougher comparables. We expect the agricultural sector to remain soft, with lower grain shipments and continued weakness in ethanol more than offsetting increased fertilizer demand. Finally, we anticipate the slow steady recovery in the construction sector will drive growth in building products and aggregates.

觀察第二季，在工業部門，我們持續在化學品領域看到成長機會，特別是與油氣鑽探相關的大宗商品。汽車市場將維持強勁，儘管我們現在面臨更具挑戰性的同比比較基期。我們預期農業部門仍將疲弱，穀物出貨量下降與乙醇持續走弱，將超過肥料需求增加所帶來的正面影響。最後，我們預期建築部門緩慢且穩健的復甦，將帶動建材與骨材的成長。

Moving to the next page, let's review Intermodal. Intermodal revenue increased 4% to $404 million. Domestic volume was up 5%, driven by growth with our existing customers in highway-to-rail conversions. International volume was essentially flat as growth with existing customers and from new service offerings was offset by volume loss due to a carrier port shift. Total Intermodal revenue per unit increased 1% due to core pricing gains.

翻到下一頁，讓我們回顧聯運（Intermodal）。聯運營收成長 4% 至 4.04 億美元。國內運量成長 5%，主要由既有客戶在「公路轉鐵路」轉換上的成長所帶動。國際運量基本持平；既有客戶成長與新服務方案帶來的增量，被因承運商港口轉移所造成的運量流失所抵銷。每單位聯運總營收成長 1%，主要來自核心定價的提升。

Looking forward, we continue to make strategic investments in our network that drive profitable growth. During the first quarter, we began work on a new terminal in Valleyfield near Montreal. This terminal will expand our network reach and when combined with the capabilities of our Northwest Ohio hub, will allow new service offerings to drive growth. In addition, we began an expansion of our Fairburn terminal in Atlanta to support robust growth in this key market. At the same time, we continue to generate growth opportunities through our highway-to-rail, or H2R, initiative. We are working jointly with our channel partners to market the compelling value of intermodal rail transportation to targeted customers, and further tap into an estimated 9 million truckload opportunities.

展望未來，我們持續對網路進行策略性投資，以推動具獲利性的成長。第一季期間，我們開始在蒙特婁附近的 Valleyfield 興建新場站。該場站將擴大我們的網路覆蓋範圍，並在結合我們俄亥俄州西北部樞紐的能力後，使新的服務方案得以帶動成長。此外，我們也開始擴建亞特蘭大 Fairburn 場站，以支援此關鍵市場的強勁成長。同時，我們持續透過「公路轉鐵路」（H2R）計畫創造成長機會。我們正與通路合作夥伴共同合作，向目標客戶推廣聯運鐵路運輸的強大價值主張，並進一步切入估計約 900 萬車次的卡車整車運輸機會。

Let's turn to the outlook for the second quarter. Looking forward, we expect stable to favorable conditions for 86% of our markets. Although the overall volume outlook for the second quarter is neutral. We expect continued growth in chemicals as we capture opportunities created by the expanding domestic oil and gas industry. Intermodal growth will continue at a similar rate in the second quarter, as our strategic network investments and service reliability continue to support highway-to-rail conversions. In forest products and minerals, we expect to continue recovery in demand for construction and building materials.

接著來看第二季展望。往前看，我們預期 86% 的市場將呈現穩定至有利的狀況。儘管第二季整體運量展望為中性。我們預期化學品將持續成長，因我們將把握國內油氣產業擴張所創造的機會。聯運在第二季將以類似速度持續成長，因我們的策略性網路投資與服務可靠度持續支援「公路轉鐵路」的轉換。在林產品與礦物方面，我們預期建築與建材需求的復甦將持續。

Automobile and light truck production will remain strong, but year-over-year comparisons are now more difficult. Although headwinds persist, the outlook for domestic coal volume in the second quarter is neutral, due to easier year-over-year comps. We still expect the full-year volume will be 5% to 10% lower year over year. The overall outlook for agricultural products remains unfavorable, with low corn supply and high prices caused by last year's drought impacting shipments to feed mills, and ethanol shipments impacted by lower demand and production. Finally, export coal volumes will be lower on softer demand for thermal coal.

汽車與輕型卡車產量將維持強勁，但同比比較將更為困難。儘管逆風仍在，由於同比比較基期較容易，第二季國內煤炭運量展望為中性。我們仍預期全年運量將較去年同期下降 5% 至 10%。農產品整體展望仍不利；去年乾旱造成玉米供給偏低且價格偏高，影響運往飼料廠的出貨量，而乙醇出貨亦受需求與產量下降影響。最後，出口煤運量將因動力煤需求轉弱而下降。

Now, I'll wrap up on the next slide. Looking at the state of the economy, the indicators we follow point to steady expansion. Overall, the second-quarter volume outlook is stable, while the outlook for 86% of our markets is neutral to favorable. We anticipate total volume will be flat year over year, with declines in unfavorable markets offsetting gains in favorable markets. Domestic and export coal markets still face challenges. High stockpiles will continue to impact domestic shipments. And softening demand for US thermal coal will have an unfavorable impact on the export market. At the same time, we expect our merchandise and intermodal markets to grow at a rate that is above the general economy, as we continue to deliver high levels of service, which creates compelling value for customers and will drive long-term profitable volume and revenue growth for shareholders.

現在，我將在下一張投影片做總結。就經濟狀況而言，我們追蹤的指標顯示經濟正穩健擴張。整體來看，第二季運量展望穩定，而我們 86% 市場的展望為中性至有利。我們預期總運量將與去年同期持平，不利市場的下滑將由有利市場的增長所抵銷。國內與出口煤炭市場仍面臨挑戰。高庫存將持續影響國內出貨。而美國動力煤需求轉弱將對出口市場造成不利影響。同時，我們預期商品業務與聯運市場的成長速度將高於整體經濟，因我們持續提供高水準服務，為客戶創造具吸引力的價值，並將為股東帶來長期且具獲利性的運量與營收成長。

Thank you. And now I'll turn the presentation over to Oscar, to review our operating results.

謝謝。接下來我將把簡報交給 Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運成果。

Thank you, Clarence, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report again that CSX's operating results for the first quarter are very strong. Safety results remain at or near all-time record levels and service continues to improve and set new records. Additionally, resource adjustments and improved asset utilization in the first quarter provided a great start and we are now on a path to exceed $150 million of efficiency gains in 2013. Bottom line, with sustained high levels of operating performance, CSX remains very well positioned to deliver a compelling service product for customers, while ensuring value for shareowners.

謝謝你，Clarence，各位早安。我很高興再次報告，CSX 第一季的營運成果非常強勁。安全表現仍維持在或接近歷史最佳紀錄水準，服務也持續改善並創下新紀錄。此外，第一季的資源調整與資產使用效率提升帶來良好開局，我們目前正走在 2013 年效率增益超過 1.5 億美元的軌道上。總而言之，在持續維持高水準營運表現的情況下，CSX 仍具備非常有利的定位，能為客戶提供具吸引力的服務產品，同時確保為股東創造價值。

Now let's review the operating results for the first quarter. On the safety side, I am happy to report that CSX, once again, produced industry-leading results. Reviewing those measures, on the left, the FRA personal injury rate was at a record first-quarter level of 0.66, representing an 18% improvement year-over-year. The chart on the right shows the FRA train accident rate, which improved 31% to 1.54, and represents a record level. Now, before moving on, I think it's important to note, and to thank our employees in the field at all levels for their truly outstanding and continued commitment to safety, and as evidenced by these great results.

現在讓我們回顧第一季的營運成果。在安全方面，我很高興報告 CSX 再次交出業界領先的成績。檢視這些指標，左側的 FRA 人身傷害率在第一季達到創紀錄的 0.66，較去年同期改善 18%。右側圖表顯示 FRA 列車事故率改善 31% 至 1.54，同樣創下紀錄水準。在繼續之前，我認為重要的是要指出並感謝我們各層級第一線員工，對安全真正卓越且持續的承諾，這些優異成果正是最佳證明。

So, let's turn to the next slide and review on-time performance. Here you can see on-time originations on the left and on-time arrivals on the right. Both measures were all-time highs in the first quarter, with on-time originations at 91% and on-time arrivals at 85%. Both on-time measures also represent sequential improvement, which is particularly meaningful given that the first-quarter volume was higher, and weather was more challenging than it was in the fourth quarter. These results represent strong collaboration between our customers, sales and marketing, and the operating team. Setting new records for service demonstrates employee commitment to a shared purpose founded on service excellence.

那麼，讓我們看下一張投影片並檢視準點表現。在這裡，您可以看到左側的準點始發，以及右側的準點到達。這兩項指標在第一季皆創下歷史新高，準點始發為 91%，準點到達為 85%。兩項準點指標也都較前一季改善；考量到第一季運量更高、且天候比第四季更具挑戰性，這點尤其有意義。這些成果代表我們的客戶、銷售與行銷，以及營運團隊之間的高度協作。服務創新紀錄，展現員工對以卓越服務為基礎之共同使命的承諾。

Turning to system performance on the next slide, as we all know, a capital-intensive industry like ours requires a strong focus on maximizing the productive use of our assets. As a result, this is a top priority as we look to further improve shareowner returns. Looking to the chart on the left, CSX drove an 8% improvement in terminal dwell for the quarter at a record low 22.2 hours. This means cars are spending less time sitting in terminals and thus more time in productive freight service. Velocity also showed improvement, up 5% to 23.4 miles per hour, with improvement across all three networks -- Coal, Merchandise and Intermodal. Record on-time performance, dwell and velocity mean customers are receiving great service. And, as a result, return on asset is improving.

接著看下一張投影片的系統表現。眾所周知，像我們這樣資本密集的產業，需要強力聚焦於最大化資產的生產性使用。因此，當我們致力於進一步提升股東報酬時，這是最優先的事項之一。看左側圖表，CSX 本季終端停留時間（terminal dwell）改善 8%，降至創紀錄低點 22.2 小時。這表示車輛在終端停放的時間更少，因而有更多時間投入具生產力的貨運服務。速度（velocity）也有所改善，上升 5% 至每小時 23.4 英里，且三大網路——煤炭、雜貨（Merchandise）與聯運（Intermodal）——皆有提升。準點表現、停留時間與速度皆創紀錄，意味著客戶正獲得優質服務。因此，資產報酬也在改善。

Turning to slide 20, let's turn our attention to operating efficiency, which, as we are proving, is not mutually exclusive with great service. Looking at crew efficiency in the Merchandise and Intermodal markets, overall volume is up 1%, with 3% fewer crew starts. Growth is largely being absorbed onto existing trains, meaning there is no need to add locomotives and crews to handle increasing volume. In Coal, crew start reductions have more than kept up with volume decline. By actively managing the workforce and increasing coal tons per car and cars per train, the Company has been able to continue to drive crew efficiency in the coal market.

接著看第 20 張投影片，讓我們把焦點放在營運效率上；正如我們所證明的，營運效率與優質服務並非互斥。觀察雜貨與聯運市場的乘務效率（crew efficiency），整體運量增加 1%，但乘務開工次數（crew starts）減少 3%。成長主要由既有列車吸收，表示無需為了因應運量增加而增派機車與乘務人員。在煤炭業務方面，乘務開工次數的減少幅度更是超過運量下滑幅度。透過積極管理人力，並提高每車煤炭噸數以及每列車車輛數，公司得以持續推動煤炭市場的乘務效率。

Now, let's turn to the next slide and discuss employment levels. The chart on the left represents the total active train and engine workforce, with the blue portion of the bars representing full-time employees, and the gold portion representing employees on furlough retention boards. On a year-over-year basis, active T&E employees is down 4%, with volume down 2%. In addition to lower T&E employment, the Company continued to deliver strong operating efficiency. Here, overtime hours were down 11%, and relief crews were down 9% for the quarter. Across all our operating crafts, employment levels were down 5%, reflecting reductions in mechanical and engineering departments as we drove further efficiencies in these areas, as well. Next, looking at where we stand with furlough and furlough retention boards, at the end of the quarter there were over 600 T&E employees on full furlough, and approximately 150 on furlough retention boards. The furlough retention board count came down over the course of the first quarter as CSX put employees back to work to replace attrition and handle modest sequential business growth.

現在，讓我們看下一張投影片並討論員工人數水準。左側圖表呈現列車與機務（T&E）在職人力總數；長條中的藍色部分代表全職員工，金色部分代表在停薪留職保留名單（furlough retention boards）上的員工。以年對年來看，T&E 在職員工減少 4%，而運量下降 2%。除了 T&E 人力降低之外，公司也持續展現強勁的營運效率。本季加班時數下降 11%，支援乘務（relief crews）下降 9%。在所有營運工種中，員工人數下降 5%，反映我們在機械與工程部門的縮減，並在這些領域進一步提升效率。接著看停薪留職與停薪留職保留名單的狀況：截至季末，超過 600 名 T&E 員工處於完全停薪留職，約 150 名在停薪留職保留名單上。第一季期間，隨著 CSX 讓員工復工以補足自然流失並因應溫和的季對季業務成長，停薪留職保留名單人數有所下降。

Let me now turn to locomotives on the next slide. Looking at the chart on the left, you can see that the active locomotive count is down 8% versus the first quarter of 2012, though up modestly on a sequential basis to account for seasonal increases in volume. Locomotive efficiency, as measured by gross ton miles per horsepower hour, improved 8% on a year-over-year basis. The team has been working diligently to minimize the time it takes to put locomotives into or take them out of storage, resulting in the ability to react more dynamically to customer demand, thus driving greater operating efficiency.

接下來讓我談談下一張投影片中的機車（locomotives）。看左側圖表，您可以看到在用機車數量較 2012 年第一季下降 8%，但為了反映季節性運量增加，較前一季小幅上升。以每馬力小時的總噸英里（gross ton miles per horsepower hour）衡量的機車效率，年對年提升 8%。團隊一直努力將機車入庫或出庫所需時間降到最低，使我們能更動態地回應客戶需求，進而提升營運效率。

Let me quickly wrap up on the next slide. The outstanding first-quarter personal injury and train accident results demonstrate the Company's commitment to keep our employees and the communities we work in safe. This commitment is why CSX is a leader in one of the nation safest industries. The operating team continues to sustain record service in 2013, serving customers efficiently with fewer resources. The sustained service improvement is evidenced by both what we are hearing directly from customers, as well as the record levels of satisfaction reported by our customers in third-party surveys. So, given the strong start to the year, we expect to deliver over $150 million in efficiency savings through improved service, growing with fewer assets, and spinning those assets more quickly to maximize return. In this dynamic environment, CSX remains committed to providing flexible solutions for customers, to enable growth and drive significant long-term value for shareowners.

讓我在下一張投影片快速總結。第一季在個人傷害與列車事故方面的優異成果，展現公司致力於確保員工及我們所服務社區的安全。這項承諾也是 CSX 能在全國最安全的產業之一中居於領先地位的原因。營運團隊在 2013 年持續維持創紀錄的服務水準，以更少資源高效率地服務客戶。服務改善的持續性，既反映在我們直接從客戶聽到的回饋，也反映在第三方調查中客戶回報的創紀錄滿意度。因此，鑑於今年開局強勁，我們預期可透過改善服務、以更少資產達成成長，並更快速地周轉這些資產以最大化報酬，帶來超過 1.5 億美元的效率節省。在此充滿變動的環境中，CSX 仍致力於為客戶提供彈性解決方案，以促進成長並為股東創造可觀的長期價值。

With that, let me turn the presentation over to Fredrik to review the financials.

接下來，我把簡報交給 Fredrik 來說明財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar, and good morning, everyone. Looking at the top of the chart, revenue was essentially flat for the first quarter, as declines in coal revenue were offset by gains in merchandise, intermodal and other revenue, including the $32 million of liquidated damages year over year that Clarence mentioned earlier. Expenses improved 1%, aided by a $20 million deferred gain, which I will speak to in the coming slides. Excluding this gain, expenses were slightly down versus last year, as CSX was able to more than offset inflation and higher depreciation through improved efficiency. Operating income was $875 million, up 2% versus the prior year.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。看圖表上方，第一季營收基本持平；煤炭營收下滑被雜貨、聯運及其他營收的成長所抵銷，其中包含 Clarence 先前提到的年對年 3,200 萬美元違約金（liquidated damages）。費用改善 1%，主要受惠於 2,000 萬美元的遞延收益（deferred gain），我會在接下來的投影片中說明。若排除這項收益，費用較去年略為下降，因為 CSX 透過效率提升，足以抵銷通膨與較高折舊。營業利益為 8.75 億美元，較去年增加 2%。

Looking below the line, interest expense was $147 million, reflecting slightly higher debt levels year over year. Other income was negative $3 million and income taxes were $266 million in the quarter. While the effective tax rate was 36.7%, we continue to expect a 38% tax rate going forward. Overall, net earnings was $459 million, up 2% versus last year. And EPS was $0.45 per share, up 5%, reflecting growth in net earnings and the impact of last year's share repurchase program.

看損益表下方，利息費用為 1.47 億美元，反映年對年債務水準略高。其他收益為負 300 萬美元，本季所得稅為 2.66 億美元。雖然有效稅率為 36.7%，我們仍預期未來稅率為 38%。整體而言，淨利為 4.59 億美元，較去年增加 2%。每股盈餘（EPS）為每股 0.45 美元，增加 5%，反映淨利成長以及去年股票回購計畫的影響。

As we turn to the next slide, let's briefly discuss how fuel lag benefited the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the effect of the lag in our fuel surcharge program was $10 million favorable. This reflects $5 million of negative in-quarter lag during the first quarter of this year, versus $15 million of negative in-quarter lag for the same period last year.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我們簡要討論燃油滯後（fuel lag）如何使本季受益。以年對年來看，我們燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）機制的滯後效應帶來 1,000 萬美元的有利影響。這反映今年第一季當季滯後為負 500 萬美元，而去年同期當季滯後為負 1,500 萬美元。

Turning to the next slide, let's review our expenses. Overall expenses were down 1% in the quarter. I will talk about the top three expense items in more detail on the next few slides, but let me briefly speak to the last two on the chart. Depreciation was up 5% to $270 million, due to the increase in the net asset base. Going forward, we continue to expect depreciation to increase sequentially a few million dollars each quarter, reflecting the ongoing investments in our business. Lastly, equipment rent was down 2% to $95 million as a result of improved utilization and fewer leased locomotives.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我們檢視我們的費用。整體費用在本季下降了1%。我會在接下來幾張投影片更詳細說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談談圖表中的最後兩項。折舊增加5%至2.70億美元，原因是淨資產基礎增加。展望未來，我們仍預期折舊將在每一季按序增加數百萬美元，反映我們對業務的持續投資。最後，設備租賃費用下降2%至9,500萬美元，主要由於使用率提升以及租賃機車數量減少。

Now, let's discuss labor and fringe in more detail. Labor and fringe expense was down $3 million versus last year. Looking at the chart on the left, total headcount was down 4% versus last year, and down 1% sequentially, reflecting favorable crew start performance and reductions in mechanical and engineering that Oscar discussed earlier. Moving to the table on the right, efficiency- and volume-related cost savings of $20 million reflects the financial benefit of the year-over-year improvement in crew starts and overtime, as well as lower mechanical, engineering and training expenses. Moving down the table, labor inflation was up $13 million, favorable to our guidance, as lower costs on health and welfare programs partially offset wage inflation that remained above 3%. Rounding out the table, other costs were $4 million higher, primarily driven by higher incentive compensation.

現在，讓我們更詳細討論人力與附加福利費用。人力與附加福利費用較去年減少300萬美元。看左側圖表，總人數較去年下降4%，且按季下降1%，反映乘務開工表現良好，以及Oscar先前提到的機務與工程人員縮減。再看右側表格，與效率及運量相關的成本節省2,000萬美元，反映乘務開工與加班年對年改善所帶來的財務效益，以及較低的機務、工程與訓練費用。往下看，勞動通膨增加1,300萬美元，優於我們的指引，因健康與福利計畫成本較低，部分抵銷了仍高於3%的薪資通膨。表格最後，其他成本增加400萬美元，主要由較高的激勵性薪酬所帶動。

Looking at the second quarter, headcount should remain relatively constant on a sequential basis, although, as we've demonstrated over the past several quarters, to continue driving efficiency, we will adjust quarterly as business conditions warrant. In addition, we expect labor inflation will rise approximately $15 million to $20 million year over year for the remaining quarters. And incentive compensation will become more material headwind with a year over year variance of about $15 million in the second quarter.

展望第二季，人數在按季基礎上應會維持相對穩定；不過，正如我們在過去幾季所展現的，為了持續提升效率，我們將視業務狀況需要按季調整。此外，我們預期在剩餘各季，勞動通膨年對年將上升約1,500萬至2,000萬美元。而激勵性薪酬將成為更顯著的不利因素，第二季年對年差異約為1,500萬美元。

Next, we will review MS&O expenses on slide 29. MS&O expenses decreased 6% or $35 million versus last year, with the key drivers shown in the table on the right. Total deferred gains reduced MS&O expenses by $30 million, reflecting two items. The first relates to $20 million deferred gain associated with a prior-year conveyance of a formerly owned company, the details of which can be found in the quarterly financial report. The second relates to the continuing SunRail gain which was $29 million in the period, or $10 million favorable year over year. Looking at the second quarter, we expect to recognize another $14 million of SunRail gain, which will be down from the $20 million we recorded in the second quarter of last year. For the balance of 2013, no further gains are expected to be realized. Turning to the operating activities, efficiency- and volume-related cost savings reduced MS&O expenses by $22 million compared to last year. This was driven by materials and repair cost savings enabled by an 8% reduction in active locomotive count, as well as other initiatives. Moving down the table, inflation increased by $11 million, while other MS&O costs increased by $6 million.

接下來，我們將在第29頁投影片檢視MS&O費用。MS&O費用較去年下降6%，或3,500萬美元，主要驅動因素如右側表格所示。遞延收益合計使MS&O費用減少3,000萬美元，反映兩項因素。第一項為2,000萬美元的遞延收益，與前一年度處分一家先前持有之公司相關，其細節可見於季度財務報告。第二項為持續的SunRail收益，本期為2,900萬美元，年對年有1,000萬美元的有利差異。展望第二季，我們預期將再認列1,400萬美元的SunRail收益，將低於去年第二季所認列的2,000萬美元。2013年其餘期間，預期不會再實現其他收益。回到營運活動，與效率及運量相關的成本節省使MS&O費用較去年減少2,200萬美元。這主要由材料與維修成本節省所帶動，得益於在役機車數量減少8%，以及其他措施。往下看，通膨使成本增加1,100萬美元，而其他MS&O成本增加600萬美元。

Moving to the next slide, let's discuss the impact of fuel. Total fuel costs remained flat versus last year. Looking at the table to the right, fuel efficiency was favorable by $10 million, reflecting a 2% year-over-year improvement in gallons consumed per gross ton mile. Next, as shown in the chart on the left, CSX average cost per gallon for locomotive fuel increased to $3.26, up 3% versus last year. And driving an increase of $14 million as seen in the chart on the right. Rounding out the table, lower volume drove $4 million decrease in volume and other expenses, with gross ton miles down 1%. That concludes the expense review for the first quarter.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我們討論燃料的影響。燃料總成本與去年持平。看右側表格，燃料效率帶來1,000萬美元的有利影響，反映每總噸英里耗用加侖數年對年改善2%。接著，如左側圖表所示，CSX機車燃料每加侖平均成本上升至3.26美元，較去年增加3%。並如右側圖表所示，推動成本增加1,400萬美元。表格最後，運量較低使運量及其他費用減少400萬美元，總噸英里下降1%。以上為第一季費用檢視的結束。

Now, let's turn to slide 31, and review our new financial targets along with our dividend and share repurchase announcements. You may recall that I mentioned last quarter that we would update you on our longer-term financial expectations after we completed a detailed review of our strategic plan with our board. With this review complete, and taking into account the new coal environment, we are updating our financial targets to reflect the expectations for our business. As I've stated before, we expect 2013 to be another transition year for CSX, as utilities work to reduce inventories to adjust to the new environment where natural gas remains cheap and abundant. That said, we continue to expect domestic coal headwinds to subside by the end of 2013, setting the stage for both earnings growth and operating ratio improvement in 2014 and 2015.

現在，讓我們看第31頁投影片，檢視我們新的財務目標，以及我們的股利與庫藏股回購公告。你可能記得我在上季提到，在我們與董事會完成對策略計畫的詳細檢視後，將向各位更新較長期的財務預期。在完成此檢視並考量新的煤炭環境後，我們正更新財務目標，以反映對我們業務的預期。如我先前所述，我們預期2013年將是CSX的另一個過渡年，因公用事業正努力降低庫存，以適應天然氣仍然便宜且供應充裕的新環境。即便如此，我們仍預期國內煤炭的不利因素將在2013年底前趨於緩解，為2014與2015年的獲利成長與營運比率改善奠定基礎。

Over those two years, we are targeting average annual earnings-per-share growth of 10% to 15% off the 2013 base. Including our first-quarter earnings per share of $0.45, we now expect full-year EPS to be flat to slightly down from 2012, as we continue to face headwinds in coal and cycle one-time favorable items from the prior year. Looking at the Company's operating ratio after this year, we expect to regain the momentum we had prior to the recent transition in coal, driven by our continued focus on pricing above inflation, profitable volume growth and efficiency. As a result, we now expect to achieve high 60%s operating ratio by 2015. And we continue to target the mid-60%s longer-term.

在那兩年期間，我們以2013年為基礎，目標為每股盈餘年均成長10%至15%。包含第一季每股盈餘0.45美元在內，我們目前預期全年EPS將與2012年持平至略為下降，因我們仍面臨煤炭逆風，且前一年一次性有利項目在本年不再出現。就公司在今年之後的營運比率而言，我們預期將重新取得在近期煤炭過渡之前的動能，動能來自我們持續聚焦於定價高於通膨、具獲利性的運量成長與效率提升。因此，我們目前預期在2015年前達成高60%區間的營運比率。而長期而言，我們仍以中60%區間為目標。

Because of our continued confidence in the Company's core earnings power, we remain committed to deploying cash within the balanced framework that prioritizes investment in the business to drive long-term value creation, along with dividends and share repurchases that also provide value for shareholders. First, our capital investment remains unchanged for 2013, at $2.3 billion. Long-term, we continue to expect to invest 16% to 17% of revenue in our business, plus an overlay for PTC. We view capital investment as a key driver of long-term shareholder value, as infrastructure and rolling stock investments allow CSX to sustain high safety and service levels, enhance efficiency, and capitalize on strategic growth opportunities that produce superior returns.

基於我們對公司核心獲利能力的持續信心，我們仍致力於在一個平衡的框架下配置現金：優先投資於業務以推動長期價值創造，同時透過股利與股票回購為股東帶來價值。首先，我們2013年的資本投資維持不變，為23億美元。長期而言，我們仍預期將把營收的16%至17%投資於業務，另加上PTC的額外投入。我們將資本投資視為長期股東價值的關鍵驅動因素，因為基礎設施與車輛投資使CSX得以維持高水準的安全與服務、提升效率，並把握可帶來優異報酬的策略性成長機會。

Second, CSX remains committed to a dividend payout range of 30% to 35% of trailing 12-month earnings. In accordance with this policy, we have announced a 7% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.15 per share, reflecting a payout at the high end of our targeted range. Third, CSX remains committed to utilizing share buybacks as an important tool to return cash to investors. As such, we announced a new $1 billion buyback program, which is expected to be completed over the next 24 months. This new program is expected to be primarily funded by excess cash and free cash flow. Finally, within the context of these announcements, we continue to target an improving credit profile that balances between financial flexibility and cost of capital through a full business cycle.

第二，CSX仍致力於將股利支付率維持在過去12個月盈餘的30%至35%區間。依據此政策，我們宣布將季度股利提高7%至每股0.15美元，反映支付率位於我們目標區間的高端。第三，CSX仍致力於將股票回購作為向投資人返還現金的重要工具。因此，我們宣布一項新的10億美元回購計畫，預期將在未來24個月內完成。此新計畫預期主要以超額現金與自由現金流支應。最後，在這些公告的脈絡下，我們仍以改善信用體質為目標，於完整景氣循環中在財務彈性與資本成本之間取得平衡。

In summary, CSX's business remains fundamentally strong. Our recent financial performance and future free flow prospects continue to provide the basis for increased shareholder distributions. Through prudent capital investment, and executing well on the things more in our control, CSX will be able to continue to create long-term value for our shareholders. With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

總結而言，CSX 的業務基本面依然強勁。我們近期的財務表現以及未來自由現金流前景，持續為提高股東回饋提供基礎。透過審慎的資本投資，並把我們更能掌控的事項執行到位，CSX 將能持續為股東創造長期價值。接下來，我把簡報交回給 Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Fredrik. Over the last several years, CSX has consistently delivered strong results over a wide range of economic conditions. Producing record first-quarter earnings, after experiencing yet another sharp decrease in coal revenue, is emblematic of our ability and our resolve. But we know that our stakeholders are more interested in tomorrow than yesterday. And the guidance and shareholder actions we outlined show our confidence in both the near and long term. Over the next several months, we envision a transition period where coal begins to stabilize at a lower level. And, more importantly, where the 80%-plus of our business that is not related to coal provides opportunities for the team to deliver vibrant results.

謝謝你，Fredrik。過去幾年，CSX 在各種經濟環境下都持續交出強勁成果。在煤炭營收再次大幅下滑之後仍創下第一季獲利新高，正彰顯了我們的能力與決心。但我們知道，利害關係人更關心明天而非昨天。而我們所提出的指引與股東回饋措施，展現了我們對短期與長期的信心。在接下來幾個月，我們預期將進入一段過渡期，煤炭業務開始在較低水準趨於穩定。更重要的是，我們業務中超過 80% 與煤炭無關的部分，將為團隊帶來交出亮眼成果的機會。

Our diverse portfolio, far-reaching network, and dynamic operating platform will allow the Company to optimize its performance. And any momentum that would occur in the economy would increase opportunities further. Put another way, we believe that CSX has emerged from yet another period of multiple challenges, even stronger than before, just as it did after the global recession and in the quarter just completed. These achievements add to our confidence in this team's ability to produce double-digit earnings growth and a high 60%s operating ratio by 2015, and a mid-60%s operating ratio longer-term. CSX stands for how tomorrow moves. And the employees of this Company have once again quietly and diligently backed up that promise with excellent service product and consistently strong financial results.

我們多元的產品組合、廣泛的網路，以及具彈性的營運平台，將使公司得以優化績效。而若經濟出現任何動能，也將進一步增加機會。換句話說，我們相信 CSX 已再次走出多重挑戰期，變得比以往更強，就如同在全球衰退之後，以及剛結束的這一季所展現的一樣。這些成就讓我們更有信心，這個團隊有能力在 2015 年前實現兩位數的盈餘成長與 60% 高段的營運比率，並在更長期達成 60% 中段的營運比率。CSX 代表「明天如何前進」。而本公司的員工再次以低調而勤勉的態度，透過優異的服務產品與一貫強勁的財務成果，兌現了這項承諾。

Thank you for your interest in CSX and we look forward to answering your questions at this time.

感謝各位對 CSX 的關注，現在我們期待回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美國銀行美林的 Ken Hoexter。

Fredrik, if we could just follow up on that outlook a bit -- or Michael. Looking at that 10% to 15% growth, the midpoint -- it looks like a bit slower if you include the full $0.45, as you mentioned. So, maybe just talk about what are in the assumptions there. Are you looking at coal maybe being worse than targeted? Is the profit loss from that just too great to overcome? Is pricing on export coal getting more aggressive? Maybe if you could just give us some parameters around what's in that 10% to 15% thought process.

Fredrik，我們能否就該展望再追問一下——或是 Michael 也可以。看你們提到的 10% 到 15% 成長，以中位數來看——如果把你提到的完整 0.45 美元納入，似乎會慢一些。所以，能否談談其中的假設是什麼。你們是否預期煤炭可能比目標更差？由此造成的獲利流失是否大到難以彌補？出口煤的定價是否變得更具侵略性？如果可以的話，請提供一些參數，說明你們對 10% 到 15% 的思考框架包含哪些因素。

Sure, Ken. So, obviously, now, we have a detailed plan after we've reviewed it with our Board, that is behind this guidance. Clearly, as you know, seldom does long-term plan exactly end up the way that you expect them to when you put them in place. So, we are going to have to continue to be flexible and adapt, just like we have over the last couple of years, to produce these sort of results in whatever economic environment that we are seeing.

當然可以，Ken。顯然，目前在與董事會審閱後，我們已有一套支撐此指引的詳細計畫。如你所知，長期計畫在制定時，最終很少會完全照著預期發展。因此，我們必須持續保持彈性並加以調整，就像過去幾年一樣，在我們所面對的任何經濟環境下都能交出這類成果。

I would say, overall, underlying those assumptions is essentially a flat coal environment versus what we are seeing -- basically between export and domestic, an overall flat environment. On the overall economy, I would say the same thing. We're going to see, slowly, a recovering economy. Nothing more than what we've seen here over the last year or so. And you couple that with continued inflation plus pricing, and the productivity focus that we've shown here over the last three years, that is really the foundation for our long-term guidance. So, we know that we are going to continue to be flexible and adapt to whatever environment we have. And then continue to push the same levers that we have over the last few years.

我會說，整體而言，這些假設的核心基本上是煤炭環境持平，相較於我們目前所看到的——也就是出口與內銷合計後的整體環境大致持平。對整體經濟，我也會做同樣的判斷。我們將看到經濟緩步復甦。不會超出過去一年左右我們所看到的程度。再加上持續的通膨與定價，以及我們過去三年所展現的生產力聚焦，這些就是我們長期指引的基礎。因此，我們知道必須持續保持彈性，並因應任何我們所處的環境。然後持續推動過去幾年我們一直在運用的同樣槓桿。

Great. I appreciate the insight.

了解。謝謝你的說明。

Brandon Oglenski of Barclays Capital.

Barclays Capital 的 Brandon Oglenski。

Fredrik, maybe if I can just follow up on that. So, just to be clear, you guys are assuming that coal demand flattens out in the 2014, 2015 period?

Fredrik，我想再追問一下。所以，確認一下，你們假設 2014、2015 年期間煤炭需求會趨於持平？

Over this period of time, between, I think, domestic and export -- clearly there could be periods where one is up and one is down. But overall, I would say that our view is that, between the two, it will be flattish during this period of time.

在這段期間，內銷與出口之間——很明顯可能會出現某段時間一個上升、另一個下降的情況。但整體而言，我會說我們的看法是兩者合計在這段期間將大致持平。

And that's coming off of the negative guidance you have for '13, right?

而這是建立在你們對 2013 年給出負向指引的基礎上，對吧？

That's correct.

沒錯。

Okay. And if I can just ask one on the energy markets for Clarence. What are some of the opportunities? Or where do you have facilities on your network today that can accept crude oil? And are you willing to put out some growth targets, potentially, for this segment of business?

好。另外我想就能源市場問 Clarence 一題。有哪些機會？或者說，你們目前在網路上有哪些設施可以接收原油？你們是否願意為這個業務區塊提出一些潛在的成長目標？

Thanks, Brandon. We have about four different facilities right now in the East that we have the capability of serving directly. And we are currently doing that through the average of about seven to nine trains a week. The limiting factor on what the long-term growth of that will be, as you are aware, is the production capabilities, particularly in the Bakken in the Eastern markets. So, for us, it's going to be driven by what the production capabilities are, not by what the demand is.

謝謝，Brandon。我們目前在東部大約有四個不同的設施，具備直接服務的能力。而我們目前平均每週大約運行 7 到 9 列列車來提供服務。如你所知，限制其長期成長的因素在於產量能力，特別是巴肯（Bakken）地區面向東部市場的產能。因此，對我們而言，將由生產能力所驅動，而不是由需求所驅動。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Chris Wetherbee of Citi Research.

Citi Research 的 Chris Wetherbee。

Just a question on coal yields. As I think sequentially in the second quarter through the fourth quarter, Clarence, how should we be thinking about the coal yields? Are you still looking for flattish yields on a full-year basis for 2013? Should they be getting better sequentially?

想問一題關於煤炭單位收益（yield）。Clarence，若按季度來看，從第二季到第四季，我們應該如何看待煤炭單位收益？你們對 2013 全年仍預期單位收益大致持平嗎？它們會不會逐季改善？

Chris, we are looking for those coal yields to be flat on a basis going forward. And that's subject to any fluctuation that we could have in the fuel surcharge application that's coming in.

Chris，我們預期煤炭單位收益在未來將以持平為基調。但這仍取決於燃油附加費適用方式可能出現的任何波動。

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up to that. When you think about the met coal settlements for the second quarter coming in a little bit higher than where they were in the first quarter, does that give you some support to potentially bring that number up a little bit? Or does it at least provide you some downside support, so there's not further declines? I just want to get a sense of how much flexibility you have within that.

了解。再快速追問一下。當你們看到第二季的冶金煤（met coal）結算價比第一季略高時，這是否能在某種程度上支持你們把該數字略微上調？或者至少提供一些下檔支撐，讓它不至於再進一步下滑？我想了解你們在這方面有多大的彈性。

I think it's the latter. It provides us support against any further downward movement. Those prices that have just been announced at Queensland are an effort by the producers to push the rates up. What actually settles in the market traditionally has been a slightly lower number.

我認為是後者。這為我們提供了支撐，以抵禦任何進一步的下行走勢。昆士蘭剛公布的那些價格，是生產商試圖把費率推高的努力。而市場傳統上真正成交落定的，通常會是略低一些的數字。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Chris Ceraso of Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）的 Chris Ceraso。

There was a comment on slide number 10 about stronger domestic pricing in coal. Was that just from inflation adjustments on existing contracts? Or were you successful in getting price increases on anything that may have turned over in the quarter?

在第 10 張投影片上有一則評論提到煤炭的國內定價更強。那只是既有合約做通膨調整的結果嗎？還是你們在本季對任何到期更新的合約，成功取得了漲價？

It's both.

兩者都有。

Okay. And then, just as a follow-up, I think you've spoken to this. The guidance for domestic coal for the rest of the year of down 5% to 10% suggests that things are down only small-single digit for the rest of the year. Is that just the effect of comps getting easier? Or are you actually seeing increased demand because of where gas prices are?

好的。接著追問一下，我想你們之前也談過。你們對今年剩餘期間國內煤炭的指引為下滑 5% 到 10%，這意味著今年剩餘時間的降幅只有小幅的個位數。這只是因為比較基期變得更容易嗎？還是你們確實因為天然氣價格所處水準而看到需求增加？

The comps in the second quarter are actually better because we had a terrible second quarter last year in domestic coal. The third and the fourth quarters tend to even out a little bit more.

第二季的比較基期其實更有利，因為我們去年國內煤炭的第二季非常糟。第三季和第四季通常會更趨於持平一些。

But are you seeing any sort of response -- any kind of demand response to where gas prices are? Or are you still eating into existing inventories?

但你們有看到任何反應——任何因天然氣價格所處水準而產生的需求反應嗎？還是你們仍在消化既有庫存？

In the North, we've seen some response to the gas prices, particularly where Powder River Basin and Northern Appalachian coals are being used. In the South, the inventory levels are still at persistently high levels. And so, that's going to be determined mainly by the weather and by the price of natural gas. But we expect those stockpiles to stay fairly high throughout the year.

在北方，我們看到對天然氣價格的一些反應，特別是在使用粉河盆地（Powder River Basin）與北阿帕拉契煤的地區。在南方，庫存水位仍持續偏高。因此，這主要將由天氣以及天然氣價格來決定。但我們預期這些庫存堆存量在全年都會維持相當高的水準。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Justin Yagerman of Deutsche bank.

德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Justin Yagerman。

It's Rob on for Justin. Clarence, you had sounded a little more cautious on the export thermal coal outlook on the call. Are you implying that the 2013 outlook is now below the 20 million tons that you've been talking to in Q4? Or are you just highlighting that the year-over-year comps are growing more challenging as we move out to the second quarter?

我是 Rob，代 Justin 發問。Clarence，你在電話會議上對出口動力煤的展望聽起來更為審慎一些。你是在暗示 2013 年展望現在低於你們在第四季所談到的 2,000 萬噸嗎？還是你只是強調，隨著我們進入第二季，同比比較會變得更具挑戰？

It's the latter -- that the year-over-year comps are growing a little bit more challenging as we go forward. It is a fact that the API 2 index numbers, as you are aware, have come down. But we think they're starting to stabilize. And actually, the forward curve on the API 2 through the second, third, fourth quarters, and through 2014, is actually increasing.

是後者——也就是隨著往後走，同比比較會變得更具挑戰一些。如你所知，API 2 指數的數值確實已經下來了。但我們認為它們正開始趨於穩定。而且實際上，API 2 的遠期曲線在第二、第三、第四季以及延伸到 2014 年，是呈上升的。

Clarence, while we're talking about the API 2, could you discuss a little bit in more detail about your export thermal coal contracts? How much of that book of business is linked to metrics like the API 2 in terms of the contracts? What percentage of that book, again, is tied to a take-or-pay commitment volume?

Clarence，既然談到 API 2，你能否更詳細談談你們的出口動力煤合約？就合約而言，你們那本業務中有多少是與 API 2 這類指標連動？另外，那本業務中有多少比例是與「照付不議（take-or-pay）」承諾量綁定？

Not all, but a preponderance of the thermal exports, particularly into Europe, are tied to the API 2 index. Our rates don't go up as fast, nor do they go down as fast as the API 2 index does. And a large percentage of our contracts would be on a take-or-pay basis, although there is a certain amount of those thermal contracts that are on a spot-market basis.

不是全部，但出口動力煤中占大多數的部分，特別是銷往歐洲的，都是與 API 2 指數掛鉤。我們的費率上升的速度不如 API 2 指數快，下跌的速度也不如它快。而我們合約中有很大一部分是採照付不議（take-or-pay）基礎，雖然也有一定比例的動力煤合約是以現貨市場為基礎。

Appreciate the color.

感謝補充說明。

Thomas Kim of Goldman Sachs.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Thomas Kim。

If I could ask, Clarence, just with regard to the intermodal side. You mentioned that there's a 9-million truckload opportunity. I was wondering if you could, perhaps, give us the path toward that opportunity being realized?

Clarence，如果我可以問一下，關於聯運（intermodal）這一塊。你提到有 900 萬車次（truckload）的機會。我想請你談談，這個機會要如何逐步實現的路徑？

We have a highway initiative called highway-to-rail conversion, in which we go out with a specialized sales force that we have to the beneficial cargo owners, and through our other intermediary channels. And we discuss with them our profits, our opportunities. We have an optimizer that can take their freight and determine what is best suited for you, the long-term, short-term rail. Term being defined as distance. So, we are doing that initiative.

我們有一項公路倡議，稱為「公路轉鐵路（highway-to-rail conversion）」，我們會派出一支專門的銷售團隊，透過我們的其他中介通路，去接觸貨主（beneficial cargo owners）。並與他們討論我們的效益與機會。我們有一套最佳化工具，可以把他們的貨運需求納入，並判斷對你而言最適合的是長程或短程的鐵路。這裡的「長／短程」是以距離來定義。所以，我們正在推動這項倡議。

We are opening up new markets. The Montreal market that we discussed on the call will be, we think, a very lucrative market for us on the domestic side, serving over 7 million people. Our expansion at Fairburn has been indicative of what we've seen happening in our domestic growth. We will be opening a new terminal in Winter Haven, Florida, here before long. They will expand further in that central and lower-central Florida market, which is very fast growing. We have got new construction happening now in Baltimore, as we speak. We have the expansions in Columbus that we've just completed. A new terminal in Louisville, Kentucky that we've just completed, which I'm pleased to announce is almost at capacity, and has been wildly successful for us. So, a combination of all those factors leads us to believe that we are going to have good, continued growth in our intermodal market.

我們也在開拓新市場。我們在電話會議中提到的蒙特婁市場，我們認為在國內業務方面將會是非常有利可圖的市場，服務超過 700 萬人口。我們在費爾本（Fairburn）的擴建，已反映出我們在國內成長所看到的趨勢。我們不久後將在佛羅里達州溫特黑文（Winter Haven）開設一座新場站。這將進一步擴展我們在佛州中部與中南部市場的布局，該市場成長非常快速。同時，我們目前正在巴爾的摩進行新建工程。我們也剛完成哥倫布的擴建。我們剛完成肯塔基州路易維爾的一座新場站；我很高興宣布，該場站幾乎已接近滿載，對我們而言非常成功。因此，綜合以上因素，我們相信聯運市場將會有良好且持續的成長。

Great. And if I can just ask a separate question. Thus far, we've only heard a few companies talk about the sequester impacting transport companies, and they happen to be within the airline space. But I noticed in your outlook that you had commented that the sequester could have some impact. And I was just wondering if you might be able to provide a little bit of color in terms of what the impact might be?

很好。另外我想問一個不同的問題。到目前為止，我們只聽到少數公司談到「自動減支（sequester）」對運輸公司的影響，而且剛好是在航空領域。但我注意到你們在展望中提到，自動減支可能會帶來一些影響。我想請問你是否能補充一些細節，說明可能的影響會是什麼？

I don't remember having anything about the sequestration. We haven't seen any impact from it, that I'm aware of.

我不記得我們有提到任何關於自動減支（sequestration）的內容。就我所知，我們沒有看到它帶來任何影響。

Okay. Sorry. I should clarify. It was on page 13 -- a comment with regard to budget uncertainty impacting military shipments. I apologize with the terminology.

好的。抱歉。我應該澄清一下。是在第 13 頁——一則關於預算不確定性影響軍方運輸的評論。我為用詞不精確致歉。

Our military shipments have been down. This is the second, almost third year in a row that our military shipments have been down. They are mainly being impacted on a year-over-year basis by the war material that we were sending overseas. And fortunately, because of the -- I say fortunately -- it depends on your perspective, but from mine as an American, bringing down our troops abroad has been a positive thing for the country. But it's negatively impacted our numbers.

我們的軍方運輸量一直在下降。這已是我們軍方運輸量連續第二年、幾乎第三年下滑。同比而言，主要受到我們先前運往海外的戰爭物資運輸量影響。而幸運的是——我說幸運，這取決於你的觀點，但以我作為美國人的角度，縮減我們在海外的駐軍對國家是正面的。但這對我們的數字造成了負面影響。

So, it's not so much the sequestration as the war --

所以，與其說是預算自動削減，不如說是戰爭——

As the war effort, yes.

是的，是戰爭支出。

Okay, great. Thank you for clarifying. Thanks a lot.

好，很好。謝謝你澄清。非常感謝。

Tom Wadewitz of JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Tom Wadewitz。

Clarence, I've got one for you, and then one for Fredrik, as well. You mentioned, I think, four terminals that you now can serve on the East that are online, or coming online, for crude by rail. And you're doing about seven to nine trains a day. What do you think is the most realistic expectation for second half? Would you think that that -- can you get to two trains a day versus roughly one now? Or how do you view the likely ramp in crude by rail in the second half this year?

Clarence，我有一個問題要問你，另外也有一個要問 Fredrik。你提到，我想是有四個你們現在在東部可以服務的碼頭，已經上線或即將上線，用於原油鐵路運輸。而你們目前大約是每天七到九列車。你認為下半年最務實的預期會是什麼？你覺得——你們能達到每天兩列車，相較於現在大約一列嗎？或者你怎麼看今年下半年原油鐵路運輸可能的爬坡幅度？

Tom, first, good morning. It's good to talk with you. Number two is, we are not handling seven to nine a day. It's seven to nine a week.

Tom，首先，早安。很高興跟你談話。第二點是，我們不是每天處理七到九列。是每週七到九列。

Yes, sorry about that. Yes.

是的，抱歉我說錯了。是的。

I'd like to handle seven to nine a day, but --

我倒是希望能每天處理七到九列，但——

I misspoke. Right, clearly. So, roughly one train a day. How would that look in second half, do you think?

我口誤了。對，顯然是。所以，大約是每天一列車。你覺得下半年會是什麼樣子？

I think that will increase in the second half. We feel very positive about it with the discussions that we have. But as I pointed out earlier, at the end of the day, the production levels in the Williston Basin, the Bakken, is going to determine what we have. And the joke we have internally -- if everybody got the two trains a day that they want, the numbers would be out the roof. And it's just unrealistic to expect. So, I would think of it more in terms of the Bakken producing to 700,000 barrels a day that they're producing, the 70,000 barrels a day that the train itself can haul, and back into what you think the potential numbers are going to be, given the fact that all of that oil is not going to come east. Does that make sense to you?

我認為下半年會增加。就我們目前的討論而言，我們感到非常正面。但如我先前指出的，歸根究柢，Williston 盆地（Bakken）的產量水準將決定我們能拿到多少。我們內部有個玩笑——如果每個人都拿到他們想要的每天兩列車，那數字會衝破天花板。而那根本不切實際。所以，我會更傾向用這樣的方式來思考：Bakken 目前產量約每日 70 萬桶、而一列火車本身可運載約每日 7 萬桶，然後回推在並非所有原油都會運往東部的前提下，你認為潛在數字會是多少。這樣你能理解嗎？

Yes, it does. I guess we'll see as it plays out. There will be some meaningful growth, and we will see as it happens how large it is and what production does. So, thank you for that.

是的，可以。我想就看後續如何發展。會有一些有意義的成長，而我們會在事情發生時觀察成長幅度有多大，以及產量的變化。所以，謝謝你的說明。

Then, for Fredrik, your share buyback, essentially $500 million a year for the next few years. If I look at that in historical context, so if I take out 2009 and look at the prior five years, you did on average $1.5 billion a year of buyback. And I'm just trying to get my arms around why the number you have the next few years is quite a bit smaller than that. Obviously, your coal franchise is very different today than it was. But it also seems like you're seeing some stability in that, and especially when you look beyond 2013. So, is that temporarily conservative, and you improve credit a little bit? Or is it just the capability for share buyback is a lot less than it was in the past? How would you frame that? And why such a conservative approach on buyback?

接著問 Fredrik，你們的庫藏股回購，基本上未來幾年每年 5 億美元。如果我把它放在歷史脈絡來看——假設排除 2009 年、看之前五年，你們平均每年回購 15 億美元。我只是想釐清，為什麼你們未來幾年的數字會比那小很多。顯然，你們現在的煤炭業務版圖跟當時很不一樣。但看起來你們也看到一些穩定性，尤其是當你把視野放到 2013 年之後。所以，這是暫時偏保守、先把信用狀況再改善一些嗎？還是說，回購能力確實比過去小很多？你會怎麼界定這件事？以及為什麼回購採取這麼保守的做法？

Tom, as you know, our prioritization is pretty straightforward. First it's about reinvesting in our Business. Second is the dividend. And the third is our share repurchase program. And based on available cash flow that we have -- that we think we are going to have, coupled with some use of our balance sheet within the context of improving credit profile, that's how we determine the amount of share buybacks that we will do.

Tom，如你所知，我們的優先順序相當明確。第一是再投資於我們的業務。第二是股利。第三才是我們的股票回購計畫。而我們會依據可用的現金流——也就是我們認為將會有的現金流——再加上在改善信用體質的前提下，適度運用資產負債表，來決定我們會做多少股票回購。

When we look at the next few years, we see two things that is impacting the sizing of the program, specifically. Which, first of all, is the fact that our PTC spending is ramping up a little bit more. And that is impacting the size of the program. And then, second, we also are seeing the reversal starting to happen because of what we've seen over the last couple of years from bonus depreciation. So, bonus depreciation has been a wonderful tailwind for the last couple of years, in terms of free cash flow. And we are now getting to the point where we are starting to see that minimizing the positive impact of that. And, in fact, as we get into '14 and '15, are going to see the negative impact from that. So, that is considered in that sizing of that program.

當我們看未來幾年時，我們看到兩個因素特別影響了這個計畫的規模。第一，是我們的 PTC 支出正在稍微加速上升。這會影響計畫的規模。第二，我們也開始看到因過去幾年加速折舊（bonus depreciation）所帶來的效果正在反轉。過去幾年，加速折舊在自由現金流方面一直是非常有利的順風。而我們現在正走到一個階段，開始看到其正面影響在減弱。事實上，進入 2014 年與 2015 年時，會看到它帶來的負面影響。因此，這些都會納入我們對該計畫規模的考量。

Okay. Great. Thanks for the time.

好的。很好。謝謝你撥冗。

Bill Greene of Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bill Greene。

I just want to come back to some of the underlying assumptions on the long-term guidance. I want to ask Oscar about the cost side of it. Because you've done a great job in the last few quarters on getting these costs up, particularly on -- looking at the labor numbers, but even MS&O and stuff like this. It's been very impressive. What we've seen at some of the other rails over time is they've come at the costs in a very aggressive way. And they've gotten them out in a way that essentially says -- no matter what the macro hands us, we're going to get these operating ratios lower. So, I was wondering if you can talk about your ability to flex up on that if these macro assumptions that Fredrik outlined don't play out like that. Is a lot of this in your control, even beyond the macro -- that we get these numbers through cost alone if we need to?

我想回到長期指引的一些基本假設。我想問 Oscar 關於成本面的部分。因為過去幾季你們在把這些成本壓下來方面做得非常好，尤其是——看人力數字，但甚至 MS&O 之類的項目也是。這非常令人印象深刻。我們在其他鐵路公司長期觀察到的是，他們以非常積極的方式處理成本。他們把成本降下來的方式基本上是在說——不管總體環境丟給我們什麼，我們都要把營運比率降下來。所以我想請你談談，如果 Fredrik 所概述的這些總體假設沒有如預期發生，你們在這方面是否有能力再更有彈性地加碼。這其中有多少是在你們可控範圍內，甚至不靠總體環境——如果需要的話，我們是否能僅靠成本就達成這些數字？

Bill, you've said a lot, and I think at the heart of your question is that -- are we going to increase our productivity targets by year?

Bill，你講了很多，我想你問題的核心是——我們是否會逐年提高我們的生產力目標？

Yes. And really, I look at this and say -- you've demonstrated an ability to get out a lot when the macro is not helpful. Fredrik outlined a macro that is kind of neutral. But if it's not that good, can you still get at these numbers through productivity anyway?

是的。而且我看這件事是——當總體環境不利時，你們已經展現出能夠省下很多的能力。Fredrik 描述的總體情境大致是中性。但如果沒有那麼好，你們是否仍能透過生產力提升來達成這些數字？

Absolutely. If you think of the way we've been getting at these numbers, we get them through asset utilization, technology improvements, resource planning. Dynamic communication tools that allow us to use a lot less resources in that critical first and last mile with our customers. We think there's ample opportunity there within our existing structure, regardless of what happens in the macro environment. Our future view on our productivity targets is very solid, and will continue.

當然。如果你想想我們一直以來是如何達到這些數字的，我們是透過資產利用、技術改善、資源規劃來實現的。動態溝通工具讓我們在與客戶互動的關鍵「第一哩」與「最後一哩」中，能用更少的資源。我們認為在現有架構內有相當大的機會，不論總體環境如何變化。我們對未來的生產力目標展望非常穩健，並將持續推進。

All right. And then just one follow-up for Clarence on the competitive dynamic. Can you help us understand how it's playing out right now in the East? It feels a little bit like the growth rates by you and your competitor are a little bit different on volume. Is that because there's a much more aggressive pricing environment in the East than we've seen in recent years? Or do you feel like that's just some of the geographies playing out, and not too much to pay attention to?

好的。接著我想就競爭態勢對 Clarence 再追問一題。你能幫我們理解目前在東部的情況是如何發展的嗎？感覺你們和競爭對手在運量的成長率上有些不同。這是因為東部的定價環境比近年更具侵略性嗎？還是你覺得只是一些地理區域因素所致，不需要太在意？

First, I think it's great to see that the rail industry, in general, is doing well. That's a positive thing for all of us. If you look in the East, what you'll essentially see between the two carriers is that we have some issues in our coal franchise versus NS. And their intermodal growth rates have been higher than ours. As I outlined to you earlier, we have terminal expansions in place. We will have over 90% of our network double-stack cleared here very soon. So, we feel very positive about what our growth rates are. And I think, with the 9-million truckload opportunity in the East, there's a lot of business out there for everybody.

首先，我認為看到整體鐵路產業表現良好是件很棒的事。這對我們所有人都是正面的。如果你看東部，兩家承運商之間你基本上會看到的是：相較於 NS，我們在煤炭業務（franchise）上有一些問題。而他們的聯運（intermodal）成長率比我們高。如我先前向你說明的，我們已在進行場站擴建。我們的網路很快就會有超過 90% 完成雙層堆疊（double-stack）淨空。因此，我們對自身的成長率非常有信心。而且我認為，東部有 900 萬卡車貨載（truckload）的機會，市場上有很多生意足夠大家一起做。

Okay. Fair enough. Thank you for the time.

好的。有道理。謝謝你撥冗。

Scott Group of Wolfe Trahan.

Wolfe Trahan 的 Scott Group。

Just want to clarify just a couple of things on the export side, particularly met. The guidance of 40 million tons, I think, if I remember from last quarter, it was split relatively pretty equally between met and thermal on the export side. We were a good amount above that run rate for met in first quarter. Does that suggest that there's upside to the 40 million tons? Or that 7-million run rate for met in first quarter isn't sustainable?

我想釐清出口端、特別是冶金煤（met）方面的幾點。4,000 萬噸的指引，我記得上季提到出口端冶金煤與動力煤（thermal）的占比大致各半。我們第一季冶金煤的實際運量明顯高於那個運行水準。這是否表示 4,000 萬噸有上行空間？或者第一季冶金煤 700 萬噸的運行水準不可持續？

And then just longer term, the high-60%s OR target for '15, do we need export to stay at or above 40 million tons? Or is there some cushion if that starts dropping below 40? I know there were a couple things there.

另外就較長期而言，2015 年營業比率（OR）目標在 60% 高段，我們是否需要出口維持在 4,000 萬噸或以上？或者若開始低於 4,000 萬噸，是否仍有一些緩衝空間？我知道這裡面有幾個因素。

Okay, Scott. I will go first, and Fredrik can go second. On the export tons, as we mentioned earlier, we expect it still to be about 40 million. We told you originally that the split would be about 50/50. It came in this quarter about 57/43. As we forecast throughout the year, we expect it to be somewhere in the 50/50 range. If it's anything, it could tend towards being more favorable to the met.

好的，Scott。我先回答，接著 Fredrik 再補充。關於出口噸數，如同我們先前提到的，我們仍預期約為 4,000 萬噸。我們一開始告訴各位，冶金煤與動力煤的占比大約是 50/50。本季實際約為 57/43。我們在全年預測中，預期會落在接近 50/50 的區間。若有偏移，可能會稍微更有利於冶金煤。

And, Scott, in regards to coal and what the expectations are, I outlined earlier that we think that it's going to be flattish overall, clearly, from where we are here in 2013, and the guidance we provided. But as we also said, seldom do the plans actually work out exactly that you expect. So, we are going to continue to be flexible. And if one of those markets are a little bit weaker, we will have to find other opportunities either on the top line or the cost side to try to offset that.

另外，Scott，關於煤炭以及我們的預期，我先前已說明我們認為整體將大致持平，顯然是以我們 2013 年目前的狀況以及所提供的指引為基礎。但如同我們也說過的，計畫很少會完全照預期發展。因此我們會持續保持彈性。如果其中某個市場稍微疲弱，我們就必須在營收端或成本端尋找其他機會，嘗試抵消影響。

Okay. That's great. And then just one follow-up on crude by rail. As the Business really starts to ramp up over the next year or so, should we be thinking about a big positive mix impact on yields like we've seen with some of the other rails? I'm just not sure how to think about the pricing, necessarily, in the East, and some of the refineries are a little bit more competitive between the rails. How do we think about that, and just the impact of maybe the Brent and WTI spread tightening a bit on pricing?

好的。很棒。再追問一題關於原油鐵路運輸（crude by rail）。隨著未來一年左右業務開始快速放量，我們是否應該預期像其他鐵路公司那樣，收益率（yields）會因產品組合而出現明顯正向影響？我不太確定該如何看待東部的定價，因為部分煉油廠在不同鐵路之間的競爭更激烈。我們該如何理解這點，以及 Brent 與 WTI 價差收斂對定價可能造成的影響？

I would say, first off, on the Brent, WTI and the Bakken spreads that are all three tightening up, that's a commodity-based number that's going to do what it's going to do on a worldwide global basis. So, it's just very difficult to predict what that's going to be. On the profit margins for the crude, it is very profitable for us. It's probably not what a lot of people think. It's not coal, if that's the question that you are asking. But it is a very profitable part of our business for us.

我會先說，Brent、WTI 以及 Bakken 的價差三者都在收斂，這是一個以商品為基礎的數字，會在全球範圍內依其自身機制變動。因此很難預測它會走到什麼程度。至於原油的利潤率，對我們來說非常可觀。可能不像很多人想的那樣。如果你問的是「是不是像煤炭那樣」，那不是。但它確實是我們業務中非常有利可圖的一部分。

Okay. All right. Thanks a lot for the time, guys, appreciate it.

好的。好。非常感謝你們撥冗，感激不盡。

Jason Seidl of Cowen Securities.

Cowen Securities 的 Jason Seidl。

A couple questions. I'll focus on the pricing side. One, you obviously mentioned a little bit of weakness on the export side. I don't think that's of any surprise. I don't know if you could split out some comments between thermal and met?

我有幾個問題。我會聚焦在定價面。第一，你們顯然提到出口端有些疲弱。我想這並不令人意外。不確定你們能否分別就動力煤與冶金煤做一些評論？

And, two, just to clarify one of the questions I think Bill asked about the pricing dynamic in the East. It doesn't seem, at least from your results, that there is any aggressive pricing between you and the NS going on right now. I just wanted to make sure that that is the case.

第二，想釐清我認為 Bill 問到的東部定價動態。至少從你們的結果來看，似乎你們與 NS 之間目前並沒有任何激進的定價行為。我只是想確認確實如此。

What do you mean by aggressive pricing between us and the NS?

你所說的我們與 NS 之間的激進定價是指什麼？

I'm saying aggressive -- are you guys getting more aggressive with trying to steal freight from one another? I think that was the crux of Bill's question.

我的意思是激進——你們是否更積極地試圖彼此搶貨？我想那是 Bill 問題的核心。

Absolutely not. As we've told you earlier, we are going to price to above rail inflation. We're going to price above it because, one, we think we've got a product that offers a significant value. And, secondly, because it's necessary for us to invest in our infrastructure. We've had a solid plan over the last 10 years now, nearly, in which we've wanted to work on our pricing. And that's what we're going to continue to do.

絕對沒有。如同我們先前告訴各位的，我們的定價會高於鐵路通膨。我們會高於它，第一是因為我們認為我們的產品提供了顯著的價值。第二是因為我們必須投資於基礎設施。過去將近 10 年我們一直有一個穩健的計畫，希望在定價上持續改善。而這也是我們將持續做下去的事。

What was the second part of your question? On met versus thermal?

你的問題第二部分是什麼？冶金煤對比動力煤？

Met versus thermal in terms of export pricing. You talked about pricing in general. I was wondering if you could parse out both of them.

就出口定價而言的冶金煤對比動力煤。你談到了整體定價。我想知道你是否可以把兩者分開說明。

The met obviously goes at a higher rate than the thermal does -- pricing rate, because of the commodity type and what it demands in the marketplace in there. As you know, we've seen downward pressure on both. And I would say that that downward pressure has been equally between the two markets, just at a different level.

冶金煤顯然比動力煤的價格更高——定價水準，因為商品類型以及它在市場上的需求。如你所知，我們看到兩者都面臨下行壓力。我會說，這種下行壓力在兩個市場之間大致相當，只是所處的價位不同。

Okay. And my follow-up question -- you talked about your new intermodal program. It sounds like that's going more direct to marketing. Is that the case?

好的。我的追問——你提到你們新的聯運（intermodal）計畫。聽起來那是更直接走向行銷端。是這樣嗎？

No, it's not going more direct to marketing, but it is going more direct to the customers themselves. We do that jointly with our intermediaries. But we want to make sure that the ultimate beneficial cargo owners are very cognizant of what our capabilities are, what values that we can offer to those customers, and how we can best serve them and in what markets.

不，並不是更直接走向行銷端，但確實是更直接面向客戶本身。我們會與中介夥伴共同推進。但我們希望確保最終受益的貨主（ultimate beneficial cargo owners）非常清楚我們的能力、我們能為這些客戶提供的價值，以及我們如何在不同市場中以最佳方式服務他們。

Okay. I appreciate the clarifications. Thanks for the time, as always, guys.

好的。感謝你的澄清。一如既往，謝謝各位撥冗。

Ben Hartford of Robert W. Baird.

Robert W. Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Fredrik, can you clarify, or remind us, what the incentive-comp headwind by quarter for the next three quarters is going to be?

Fredrik，你能否說明或提醒我們，未來三個季度各季度的獎酬（incentive-comp）逆風會是多少？

Here, in the first quarter, incentive-comp headwind was about $7 million year over year. And as I outlined in my comments, we think it's going to be about $15 million in the second quarter, as we reset the targets, and we now have the broader application of the bonuses to include a larger portion of our union employees, as well. As we look at the second half, it will probably be a little bit more than that -- probably closer to the $20 million, on average.

第一季獎酬逆風約為年增（同比）700 萬美元。如我在評論中提到的，我們認為第二季約為 1,500 萬美元，因為我們重設目標，且現在將獎金適用範圍擴大，納入更多工會員工。展望下半年，可能會略高於此——平均可能更接近 2,000 萬美元。

Okay, that's helpful. And then a follow-up, but unrelated. Crew starts were down 16% in coal, but volumes were down 10%. What's driving the longer train length? Is it just mix of a greater percentage of export coal volumes? Or are you seeing more activity from bigger customers at the expense of smaller customers, that that may not be generating at full capacity? Can you talk a little bit about that dynamic?

好的，這很有幫助。接著一個追問，但不相關。煤炭的開車班次（crew starts）下降 16%，但運量下降 10%。是什麼在推動列車更長？只是因為出口煤占比更高的組合因素嗎？還是你們看到較大客戶的活動增加、以較小客戶為代價，而後者可能沒有滿載運行？能否談談這個動態？

Yes. This is Oscar, Ben. I think it's a mixture of several things. Our southern utility coal, the [more normal] longer haul is, where our volume declines, whereas you'd think they'd be shrinking. But we've got increases in export coal to Newport News, which is affecting that mix. We've got a higher percentage of stuff coming from the Illinois Basin, which has a little bit longer haul. And then, in the Northeast, where we are growing, we have lesser declines in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic utilities, which contribute to the longer haul. So, it's a mix of all those factors. It's traffic mix. It's nothing more broader oriented --.

是的。Ben，我是 Oscar。我認為是多個因素的混合。我們南部公用事業煤（southern utility coal）中，[較正常的]長途運輸部分出現運量下滑；照理說它們應該會縮短。但我們對 Newport News 的出口煤增加，影響了這個組合。我們也有更高比例的貨源來自伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin），其運距稍長。另外，在我們成長的東北地區，東北與中大西洋的公用事業煤下滑較小，也促成更長的運距。所以，這是所有這些因素的混合。是運輸結構（traffic mix）。沒有更宏觀層面的原因——。

That's helpful. Thanks, Oscar.

這很有幫助。謝謝，Oscar。

David Vernon of Sanford Bernstein.

Sanford Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

With the liquidated damages of $32 million in the quarter, is that something we should expect more of going forward? Or is this it, as far as what's on the radar screen right now?

本季有 3,200 萬美元的約定損害賠償金（liquidated damages），未來我們還應該預期會有更多嗎？還是就目前雷達上看到的而言，這就是全部了？

This is Fredrik. I think that we have seen the vast majority of the liquidated damage that we expect for the year in the first quarter. So, I wouldn't expect to -- there's no need to really build in a lot more after this. We will certainly update you and being transparent, as we do get them going forward, just as we have in the past.

我是 Fredrik。我認為我們在第一季已經看到今年預期的大部分約定損害賠償金。所以，我不會預期——之後其實不需要再額外納入太多。當然，未來若有進展我們會一如既往地更新並保持透明，就像過去一樣。

And other revenue would then be in that $80-million range -- $70-million, $80-million range, then?

那麼其他收入（other revenue）就會落在約 8,000 萬美元——7,000 萬到 8,000 萬美元的區間？

Yes, I think that's the best place. If you look back over the last few years, that seemed to be the place where it normalizes.

是的，我認為那是最合適的水準。如果你回看過去幾年，那似乎就是它回歸常態的區間。

Okay, great. And then just one last follow-up for Clarence. Are you guys starting to see any type of pick up in demand for drilling materials into the Marcellus, with gas prices coming back up?

好的，很好。最後再追問 Clarence 一個問題。隨著天然氣價格回升，你們是否開始看到運往 Marcellus 的鑽井材料需求有任何回升？

So far we've not seen any additional pick up for the drill counts themselves. We are seeing an increase in the amount of frac sand that we are moving into the Marcellus.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到鑽機數（drill counts）本身有任何額外回升。但我們確實看到運往 Marcellus 的壓裂砂（frac sand）運量增加。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝你。

John Larkin of Stifel Nicolaus.

Stifel Nicolaus 的 John Larkin。

Just on the broader issue of seasonality. For many decades, usually the first quarter is your weakest quarter in transportation across most modes. Your guidance implies that maybe there is less seasonality this year than there might be in a normal year. Or is it just the way that the one-time items flows? Could you, perhaps, illuminate us on that point?

就更廣泛的季節性議題而言。過去幾十年，通常第一季是你們在多數運輸模式中最弱的一季。你們的指引暗示今年的季節性可能比正常年份更弱。還是只是一次性項目的流入方式所致？你能否就這點為我們說明一下？

I'm not going to get into quarterly guidance. But based on what we said here earlier, we had about $52 million between the liquidated damages and the conveyance -- the [coach] agreement associated with the conveyance of our formerly owned subsidiary, that impacted us favorably this quarter. So, if you adjust for that, you get to a different run rate.

我不會就季度指引做進一步說明。但根據我們先前所說，本季約有 5,200 萬美元來自約定損害賠償金與讓與（conveyance）——與讓與我們先前持有之子公司相關的[coach]協議——對本季帶來正面影響。因此，如果你把這些調整掉，會得到不同的常態運行水準（run rate）。

And then, as you've seen a little bit, in regards to where you are alluding to, the seasonality is perhaps not as strong as it's been in the past. But there's still seasonality, especially in the second quarter and the third quarter. The third quarter with the automotive shutdown, and some of the coal holidays and so forth. So, there is still seasonality there. But I do think you need to change the starting point. And once you do that, I think it makes more sense versus the historical pattern.

另外，正如你也稍微看到的，關於你所暗示的部分，季節性可能不像過去那麼強。但仍然存在季節性，尤其是在第二季與第三季。第三季有汽車業停工，以及一些煤炭假期等等。所以，季節性仍然存在。但我確實認為你需要改變起點。一旦你這麼做，我想相較於歷史模式就更合理了。

Thank you for that. And then maybe as a second question -- one of the other hot topics amongst investors has been activity into and out of Mexico. While you don't touch Mexico directly, with your partner railroads you can do business into and out of that country. Do you see that as a major opportunity that might ultimately be as big as crude by rail?

謝謝你的說明。接著也許第二個問題——投資人之間另一個熱門話題是進出墨西哥的活動。雖然你們不直接觸及墨西哥，但透過你們的合作鐵路公司，你們可以做進出該國的業務。你們是否認為這是一個重大機會，最終可能大到像鐵路運原油（crude by rail）那樣？

John, one, we see it as a major opportunity for us. We do a lot of business today in and out of Mexico, both containerizable, as well as boxcar freight, and automotive businesses in and out of Mexico. I haven't really thought about it in terms of comparables as crude by rail. The Mexican market for us is a very large market. And I hope that crude by rail grows as fast as Mexico has.

John，第一，我們把這視為對我們而言的一個重大機會。我們目前在墨西哥境內外都有大量業務，包括可貨櫃化貨物、以及棚車貨運，還有汽車相關的墨西哥進出口業務。我其實沒有用「鐵路運輸原油」那樣的可比案例來思考。對我們來說，墨西哥市場是一個非常大的市場。我也希望鐵路運輸原油的成長速度能和墨西哥一樣快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Kauffman of Sterne Agee.

Sterne Agee 的 Jeff Kauffman。

I just want to follow up on Tom Wadewitz's question. Because I see the point here -- you paid down about $400 million of debt in the first quarter, no share repurchases. I hear what Fred is saying, is we want to keep our cash level and neutral. And that's what the share repurchase is based on. But it seems like you are delevering here. And I would guess share repurchase would be more accretive to earnings than a debt paydown at these levels of interest rates. Can you guide me through the thinking on that?

我只是想跟進 Tom Wadewitz 的問題。因為我理解這裡的重點——你們在第一季償還了大約 4 億美元的債務，沒有進行股票回購。我聽到 Fred 的意思是，我們希望維持現金水位並保持中性。而股票回購就是以此為基礎來決定的。但看起來你們正在去槓桿。而我猜在目前這樣的利率水準下，股票回購對盈餘的增厚效果應該會比償債更大。你能帶我理解一下你們背後的思考嗎？

Just a very brief answer to that. Our intent is not to delever during this period of time.

對此我簡短回答一下。我們在這段期間的意圖不是去槓桿。

Okay. So, in other words, we are open-ended, but we're just being conservative, given the environment and matching our cash flows?

好的。所以換句話說，我們是開放式的，但只是基於環境、並配合我們的現金流而採取較保守的作法？

We are going to continue to make sure that we are -- you approach it the same way we have approached it the last couple of years in regards to the balanced approach. We are going to size the share repurchase program based on whatever free cash flow that we have available, including using whatever debt capacity we have. And clearly, as I think you know, we also had, going into the year, a significant amount of pre-funding done on our balance sheet because of taking advantage of some attractive rates last Fall. So, our cash balances are relatively high going into the year.

我們會持續確保——你可以用我們過去幾年一貫的方式來看，也就是在「平衡式」的方法下來處理。我們會依據可用的自由現金流規模來決定股票回購計畫的大小，也包括運用我們可用的舉債能力。而且很明顯，如你所知，我們在年初時資產負債表上已做了相當程度的預先融資，因為去年秋天我們把握了一些具吸引力的利率。因此，我們在年初的現金餘額相對偏高。

Okay. And one detail question, Fred. You said bonus depreciation is reversing. Does that mean that your GAAP depreciation expense levels out in 2014, 2015? Or am I thinking about that wrong?

好的。另外一個細節問題，Fred。你說加速折舊（bonus depreciation）正在反轉。這是否表示你們的 GAAP 折舊費用在 2014、2015 年會趨於持平？還是我理解錯了？

I think you should really just think about it from -- that the relationship between deferred taxes and our GAAP taxes. So, it doesn't really impact whatever you see on the P&L side. It really just impacts the ability to continue to defer some of our taxes.

我認為你應該主要從——遞延所得稅與我們 GAAP 所得稅之間的關係來理解。所以它其實不會影響你在損益表（P&L）端看到的數字。它真正影響的是我們持續遞延部分稅款的能力。

Okay. Very well. Thank you.

好的。明白了。謝謝。

Anthony Gallo of Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo 的 Anthony Gallo。

As I understand it, the export coal pricing from you is going to vary with the underlying commodity price change. Are there any other commodities on your network that have a similar dynamic? And more specifically, could you clarify the comment on crude? So, will crude pricing by you vary as the differentials vary?

照我的理解，你們的出口煤炭定價會隨著基礎商品價格變動而變化。在你們的網路上，還有其他商品也有類似的動態嗎？更具體地說，你能澄清一下你們對原油的評論嗎？也就是說，你們的原油運價會隨著價差（differentials）的變動而變動嗎？

Anthony, this is Clarence. We don't have any other commodities that we've specifically tied -- any other lines of business that we specifically have tied to commodity prices. And on the crude pricing, it will not follow the spreads.

Anthony，我是 Clarence。我們沒有其他商品——也沒有其他業務線——是我們明確把它和商品價格綁定在一起的。至於原油定價，它不會跟著價差走。

Very helpful. That's all I had. Thank you.

非常有幫助。我就這些。謝謝。

Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.

Jefferies 的 Peter Nesvold。

Just a follow-up on liquidated damages. Can you just maybe talk a little bit about how the liquidated damages provisions are changing with coal industry, given the underlying changes within the industry itself? Are these becoming harder to implement? Are there different ways that these provisions are being put into contracts, et cetera?

我想就約定賠償金（liquidated damages）再追問一下。你能否談談，隨著煤炭產業本身的變化，煤炭產業中的約定賠償金條款是如何在改變的？這些條款是否變得更難執行？或是這些條款被放進合約的方式有所不同等等？

I think that clearly the liquidated damages that we have in contracts today are different than they were a few years ago, where we essentially had both min and max with certain contracts. And that the liquidated damages today are a lot smaller than they used to be. I think that's a trend that we expect to continue going forward, as well.

我認為很明顯，我們目前合約中的約定賠償金條款，和幾年前已經不同；當時我們在某些合約中基本上同時有最低與最高（min 和 max）的設定。而現在的約定賠償金金額比過去小得多。我認為這也是我們預期未來會持續的趨勢。

Okay. Is that a gradual evolution? Or is it -- given the significant downturn that we saw in coal volumes in 2012, are there step changes that are occurring in those provisions, as you implement them now?

好的。這是一個逐步演進的過程嗎？還是——鑑於 2012 年煤炭運量出現顯著下滑——當你們現在執行這些條款時，條款本身正在發生階段性的變化？

This has been occurring over the last couple of years.

這在過去幾年一直在發生。

Okay. That's very helpful.

好的。這非常有幫助。

And we expect that to continue going forward.

而且我們預期未來也會持續如此。

Great, thank you.

很好，謝謝。

Keith Schoonmaker of Morningstar.

Morningstar 的 Keith Schoonmaker。

I'd like to ask about coal inventory. You indicated utility inventories are high. Can you compare to levels in the past year? And related, could you also comment on what may be a unique attribute of your franchise? Do you consider your ground storage capability more advantageous during periods like the present?

我想問一下煤炭庫存。你提到公用事業的庫存偏高。你能和過去一年的水準做個比較嗎？另外，你也能評論一下你們特許經營（franchise）可能具備的獨特屬性嗎？在像目前這樣的時期，你們是否認為地面堆存（ground storage）能力更具優勢？

Keith, this is Clarence. The coal inventories, as I mentioned earlier, in the North have pretty much gotten down to what would be considered historically normal levels. And that's been driven by the colder Winter. I think we had like six more weeks of colder weather than we normally had. It's also been driven by natural gas prices slightly going up. A lot of that coal that moves into that area, which is both Powder River Basin and Northern App, has a lower ratio rate between coal and natural gas than it does in the South.

Keith，我是 Clarence。煤炭庫存方面，如我先前提到的，北方的庫存已經大致降到可被視為歷史正常水準。這主要是由於冬季更寒冷所驅動。我想我們比平常多了大概六週的寒冷天氣。另外也受到天然氣價格小幅上升的影響。大量運往該地區的煤炭——包括粉河盆地（Powder River Basin）以及北阿帕拉契亞（Northern App）——其煤炭相對天然氣的比價（ratio rate）比南方更低。

In the South, the utilities have a tendency to burn a lot more gas. Even though electrical consumption is up, they have a lot more gas capacity. And as a result of that, they went into the year, again, with excessively high inventories, and they have stayed fairly high throughout this period. Now, there are isolated cases were some utilities have actually dropped. But there's also isolated cases where the utilities have increased.

在南方，公用事業傾向燃燒更多天然氣。即使用電量上升，他們的天然氣發電容量也更大。因此，他們在年初時同樣帶著過高的庫存進入年度，而且在這段期間庫存一直維持在相當高的水準。當然，也有一些個別案例是某些公用事業的庫存實際上下降了。但也有一些個別案例是公用事業的庫存增加了。

What was the second part of your question? Is ground storage related to export?

你問題的第二部分是什麼？地面堆存是和出口相關嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We think it gives CSX a competitive advantage. We have ground storage at all three of our major exporting terminals that allows our customers to blend the coal and to have the coal there available for immediate loading, as well as the asset utilization.

我們認為這讓 CSX 具備競爭優勢。我們在三個主要出口碼頭都有地面堆存，讓客戶可以進行煤炭混配，並讓煤炭可隨時供立即裝船，同時也有助於資產使用效率。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Walter Spracklin of RBC Capital Markets.

RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

My question is on Intermodal. I know, Fredrik, you gave some color on coal assumptions going out there. But on a little bit of a brighter note here, your truck-to-rail conversion is certainly, probably a more systemic and longer-term evolution. I'm just curious as to what level of Intermodal volumes are you assuming above your average levels for the rest of your business for Intermodal going out to your targets?

我的問題是關於聯運（Intermodal）。我知道，Fredrik，你對外部的煤炭假設提供了一些說明。但從稍微更正面的角度來看，你們的卡車轉鐵路（truck-to-rail）轉換，確實可能是一個更具系統性、也更長期的演進。我只是好奇，針對聯運業務在邁向你們目標的過程中，你們假設聯運量相對於你們其他業務的平均水準，會高出到什麼程度？

I think, as you've seen here over the last few years, we continue to have great success in modal conversion in the modal space. And we certainly expect that during this period, as well.

我想，正如你在過去幾年所看到的，我們在運具轉換（modal conversion）方面持續取得很大的成功。而且我們當然也預期在這段期間同樣如此。

At rates above the average, I guess?

也就是說，增速會高於平均水準，對吧？

I would say above average, yes.

我會說高於平均水準，是的。

When you look at the profitability of your Intermodal, I know all the railroads have termed the profitability of intermodal as average with the group. But clearly, as you get growth in that segment, your train links become more optimal. Intuitively, it would lead one to assume that this will be an above-average growth level. Is there a certain level of volumes that you see as being a key volume level, and you can term that with regards to your market share versus the trucks or the 9 million that you are talking about? Or is there a volume level you can point to within your own carload statistics that would say -- okay, at this level, we really start to get some good economies of scale here, and get profitability above the average?

談到你們聯運的獲利能力，我知道所有鐵路公司都把聯運的獲利能力稱為與同業平均相當。但很明顯，當該區塊成長時，你們的列車連結會變得更優化。直覺上，這會讓人認為這將是高於平均的成長水準。是否有某個你們認為是關鍵的運量水準，可以用來描述你們相對於卡車的市占，或你們提到的 900 萬載運量（loads）？或者，在你們自己的車載量（carload）統計中，有沒有一個運量水準可以指出——好，在這個水準下，我們真的開始獲得不錯的規模經濟，並讓獲利能力高於平均？

I do think that you're right. I think that as we continue to grow that business, we do see economies of scale. And it's going to be helpful. At the same time, though, Intermodal also is the toughest part of the business to get pricing on. So, you are very much dependent on making sure that you create that leverage as you move forward.

我確實認為你說得對。我想，隨著我們持續擴大那項業務，我們確實會看到規模經濟。而這會有所幫助。但同時，聯運也是整個業務中最難取得定價（pricing）的部分。所以，你非常依賴於確保在往前推進時能創造那種槓桿效應。

As we've said, Intermodal is a profitable business to us. It's on par with most of our Merchandise market. And we want to grow it as much as we possibly can. So, we are excited about the opportunity. We are excited about the 9 million loads. And we are going to continue to grow that market at a faster rate than overall economy.

正如我們所說，聯運對我們而言是一門有利可圖的業務。它與我們大多數的商品運輸（Merchandise）市場大致相當。而我們希望盡可能把它做大。所以，我們對這個機會感到興奮。我們對 900 萬載運量感到興奮。而且我們將持續以快於整體經濟的速度來擴大這個市場。

That's great. Thank you.

太好了。謝謝。

I just have a housekeeping question for Oscar. Your employee base has come down quite a bit -- quite nicely here. How should we look at employee count going forward in terms of a more flattish volume growth after the decline in coal volumes? Is this something that stabilizes or starts ticking back up now as you see that stability in coal, and perhaps some growth in your Merchandise and Intermodal business?

我有一個行政性問題想問 Oscar。你們的員工人數已經下降了不少——而且下降得很不錯。在煤炭運量下滑之後、運量成長較為持平的情境下，未來我們應該如何看待員工人數？當你們看到煤炭趨於穩定，並且你們的商品運輸與聯運業務可能有些成長時，這會是穩定下來，還是開始回升？

We are going to continue -- this is Fredrik -- we are going to continue to make sure that we are responsive to whatever market conditions we are seeing. So, in a flattish environment, we expect our headcount to remain flattish. We're obviously going to see what we can do on the productivity side. But then, if we see a ramp-up in volume here in the second and third and fourth quarter, we are going to see some adjustment to our headcount. But hopefully, not a 1-for-1 ratio.

我們將會持續——我是 Fredrik——我們將會持續確保能對我們所看到的任何市場狀況做出回應。所以，在較為持平的環境下，我們預期人力編制也會維持持平。我們顯然會看看在生產力方面能做些什麼。但如果我們在第二、第三與第四季看到運量回升，我們會對人力編制做一些調整。但希望不是 1 比 1 的比例。

Great. Thank you very much.

很好。非常感謝。

I will now turn it back to the speakers for closing remarks.

我現在把時間交回給講者做結語。

Thank you for your attention. And we look forward to seeing you next quarter.

感謝各位的聆聽。我們期待下個季度與各位再見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷電話。