CSX Corporation (CSX) 2013 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the CSX Corporation fourth quarter 2013 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2013 年第四季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。在本次會議期間，所有與會者將以僅收聽模式參與。

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation. Sir, you may begin.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Shirley, and again, good morning everyone and welcome again to CSX Corporation's fourth quarter 2013 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we'll review this morning along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements are available on our website at CSX.com under the investor section.

謝謝您，Shirley，也再次向各位道早安，並再次歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2013 年第四季財報簡報。我們今天上午將審閱的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可於 CSX.com 網站的投資人專區取得。

In addition, following the presentation a Webcast and podcast replay will be available on that same website. Here representing CSX this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer; and calling in from another location is Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer.

此外，簡報結束後，亦可在同一網站收看 Webcast 與 podcast 重播。今天上午代表 CSX 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；財務長 Fredrik Eliasson；以及從另一地點撥入的營運長 Oscar Munoz。

Now, before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure on the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements as well as risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露內容。該揭露說明了前瞻性陳述，以及可能導致實際表現與這些陳述所預期結果出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. That said, with approximately 30 analysts covering CSX I would ask as a courtesy for everyone to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question.

另外也提醒各位，在簡報結束時，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。話雖如此，由於約有 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，敬請各位基於禮貌將提問限制為一個主要問題及一個追問。

And with that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

那麼，接下來我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Well thank you, David, and good morning everyone.

謝謝你，David，各位早安。

Last evening CSX reported fourth quarter earnings per share of $0.42, down $0.44 in the same period last year, which included $0.06 of favorable real estate gains. Revenue grew 5% in the quarter, where the ongoing headwinds in coal were more than offset by broad-based growth in our merchandise and intermodal markets reflecting an economy that is expanding.

昨晚 CSX 公布第四季每股盈餘為 0.42 美元，較去年同期下降 0.44 美元；去年同期包含 0.06 美元的有利不動產處分收益。本季營收成長 5%；煤炭業務持續逆風所帶來的影響，已被我們商品運輸與聯運市場的廣泛成長所抵銷，反映經濟正在擴張。

In addition, operations were resilient, even with the volume increase and the challenging winter weather at the end of the quarter, as we activated additional resources to keep the network fluid and service levels high. Finally, operating income was $813 million, essentially unchanged from last year, and the operating ratio was 73.2%, up 140 basis points.

此外，即使在運量增加以及季末嚴峻冬季天候的挑戰下，營運仍具韌性；我們啟動額外資源以維持路網順暢並保持高服務水準。最後，營業利益為 8.13 億美元，與去年基本持平；營業比率為 73.2%，上升 140 個基點。

While we delivered a solid quarter from a top line and operational perspective, you can see that the revenue growth did not flow through to the bottom line as much as we would have liked. That is because there were a number of moving parts on the expense side between 2013 and 2012 that reduced the normal flow-through we would have expected from the $137 million revenue gain. Fredrik will review this in more detail later in the presentation.

雖然從營收端與營運面來看，我們交出穩健的一季，但各位可以看到，營收成長並未如我們所期望般充分反映到獲利端。原因在於 2013 年與 2012 年之間，費用端有多項變動因素，降低了我們原本預期由 1.37 億美元營收增加所帶來的正常流入（flow-through）。Fredrik 稍後會在簡報中更詳細說明。

Turning to our full year results on the next page. Earnings per share were $1.83, up slightly from $1.79 in 2012. Revenue increased $263 million, or 2% to a record $12 billion. This reflects the underlying strength of our merchandise and intermodal businesses, which more than offset the decline in coal of nearly $300 million.

接著看下一頁的全年結果。每股盈餘為 1.83 美元，較 2012 年的 1.79 美元小幅上升。營收增加 2.63 億美元（或 2%），達到創新高的 120 億美元。這反映我們商品運輸與聯運業務的基本面強勁，足以抵銷煤炭業務近 3 億美元的下滑。

Service levels remain strong and the team exceeded its efficiency target, delivering $158 million of savings. For the year, we produced operating income of $3.5 billion, which was slightly up from last year, and an operating ratio of 71.1%. As we go through today's presentation, you'll continue to see the results of a team that's managing through challenges and is well positioned to create sustainable, long-term value for customers and shareholders.

服務水準仍然強勁，團隊也超越效率目標，實現 1.58 億美元的節省。全年營業利益為 35 億美元，較去年略增；營業比率為 71.1%。在今天的簡報過程中，各位將持續看到團隊在挑戰中管理營運的成果，並且已具備良好定位，為客戶與股東創造可持續的長期價值。

Now I'll turn the presentation over to Clarence who will take us through the top line results in more detail. Clarence?

現在我把簡報交給 Clarence，由他更詳細帶我們看營收端的結果。Clarence？

Thank you Michael and good morning.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。

As you can see on the left side of the chart total volume grew 6% and approached 1.7 million loads in the quarter with mixed performance among the diverse markets we serve. Growth in the merchandise and intermodal markets was partially offset by a decline in coal volume. As a result, merchandise and intermodal now combine for 83% of CSX's volume.

如圖表左側所示，本季總運量成長 6%，接近 170 萬車次（loads）；我們所服務的多元市場表現不一。商品運輸與聯運市場的成長，部分被煤炭運量下滑所抵銷。因此，商品運輸與聯運合計目前占 CSX 運量的 83%。

Moving to the right, total revenue increased $137 million to over $3 billion in the quarter, reflecting overall volume growth and price increases across most markets. Looking at the bottom of this panel, merchandise and intermodal now combine for over three quarters of CSX's overall revenue.

再看右側，本季總營收增加 1.37 億美元，超過 30 億美元，反映整體運量成長以及多數市場的價格上調。從此區塊底部可見，商品運輸與聯運合計目前占 CSX 總營收的逾四分之三。

Next, revenue per unit remained relatively flat. The impact of core pricing gains and liquidated damages was partially offset by the unfavorable mix impact related to the growth in intermodal versus the decline in coal.

接著，每單位營收大致持平。核心定價提升與違約金（liquidated damages）的影響，部分被不利的組合影響所抵銷；該組合影響來自聯運成長相對於煤炭下滑。

Finally, core pricing on a same store sales basis remains solid across nearly all markets. Recall that same store sales are defined as shipments with the same customer, commodity, and car type, and the same origin and destination.

最後，以同店銷售基礎衡量的核心定價在幾乎所有市場仍然穩健。請記得，同店銷售的定義為：相同客戶、商品與車種，且起訖點相同的貨運。

These shipments represented nearly 80% of CSX's traffic base for the quarter. On this basis, all-in core pricing was 1.6% in the quarter, consistent with what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2012, reflecting continued rate pressure in the export coal market and more modest increases in domestic coal pricing, since we continue to have greater variability in both our export and domestic coal business, reflecting global conditions and our fixed variable contract structure.

這些貨運在本季約占 CSX 運輸基礎的近 80%。在此基礎上，本季整體核心定價為 1.6%，與 2012 年第四季所見一致；反映出口煤市場持續的運價壓力，以及國內煤定價較為溫和的上調。由於我們的出口與國內煤炭業務仍具有較高變動性，反映全球情勢以及我們固定／變動合約結構。

And since our merchandise and intermodal markets are becoming a larger portion of our business, we have again provided you with the same store sales pricing for these two markets on a combined basis. At the bottom of this panel you can see core pricing for these markets to average 2.9% for the quarter.

而且，隨著商品運輸與聯運市場在我們業務中的占比提高，我們再次提供這兩個市場合併口徑的同店銷售定價。在此區塊底部，各位可以看到這些市場本季核心定價平均為 2.9%。

This is roughly flat with what we reported in the third quarter despite lower rail inflation, which is embedded in many of our contract escalators. We remain confident that the value created by our service product for our customers provides a solid foundation for growth and pricing above rail inflation over the long term.

這與我們在第三季所報告的數字大致持平，儘管鐵路通膨較低，而該因素已嵌入我們許多合約的調價條款（escalators）中。我們仍有信心：我們為客戶提供的服務產品所創造的價值，為長期成長以及高於鐵路通膨的定價提供了穩固基礎。

Now let's look at the individual markets in more detail, starting with coal. Coal revenue declined 9% in the quarter to $679 million. Domestic coal tonnage declined 9%, impacted by continued high stockpiles in our service territory. Export coal tonnage increased 6% as shipments of metallurgical coal increased compared to a weak prior-year quarter. Finally, total revenue per unit was down 4%, with lower export pricing more than offsetting domestic pricing gains.

現在讓我們更詳細看看各個市場，先從煤炭開始。本季煤炭營收下降 9%，至 6.79 億美元。國內煤炭噸數下降 9%，受到我們服務區域內庫存仍偏高的影響。出口煤炭噸數增加 6%，因冶金煤出貨較去年同期疲弱的一季有所增加。最後，每單位總營收下降 4%，出口價格下滑的影響超過國內價格上升所帶來的抵銷。

Next, let's look at the merchandise business. Overall, merchandise revenue increased 10% to over $1.8 billion in the quarter. Volume in the agricultural sector was up 5%. Feed grain shipments, both domestic and export, increased sharply due to a strong 2013 harvest.

接下來，我們看看商品運輸業務。整體而言，本季商品運輸營收成長 10%，超過 18 億美元。農業部門運量成長 5%。由於 2013 年收成強勁，飼料穀物出貨（包含國內與出口）大幅增加。

In addition, ethanol shipments grew as lower corn prices resulted in higher ethanol productions. The construction sector grew 4% overall, as the continued recovery of the residential housing market drove increased shipments of building products. In addition, industrial waste volumes were strong due to an increase in shipments associated with large-scale remediation projects. Finally, the industrial sector was up 10% on the strength of energy related commodities including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and frac sand.

此外，由於玉米價格較低帶動乙醇產量提高，乙醇出貨量亦有所成長。建築業整體成長4%，住宅房市持續復甦帶動建材產品出貨增加。此外，因大型整治專案相關出貨增加，工業廢棄物運量表現強勁。最後，受原油、液化石油氣與壓裂砂等能源相關商品帶動，工業部門成長10%。

Moving to the next page. Let's review our intermodal business. Intermodal revenue increased 10% to $437 million. Domestic volume was up nearly 13%, setting a new quarterly CSX record, driven by growth with our existing customers and continued highway-to-rail conversions.

接著翻到下一頁。我們來回顧聯運業務。聯運營收成長10%，達4.37億美元。國內運量年增近13%，創下CSX單季新紀錄，主要由既有客戶成長以及持續的公路轉鐵路運輸所帶動。

International volume was up 9% year over year on growth with existing customers, new service offerings and a favorable comparison to the fourth quarter of 2012 when shipments were disrupted by Hurricane Sandy. Total intermodal revenue per unit declined 1% as continued solid core pricing gains were more than offset by the lower fuel recovery mix. Finally, 90% of our intermodal traffic is now moving in lanes that are double stack cleared. That number will continue to grow through strategic network investments, most significantly the Virginia Avenue Tunnel clearance project in Washington, DC.

國際運量年增9%，受既有客戶成長、新增服務方案，以及相較於2012年第四季因颶風桑迪造成出貨受阻的有利比較所帶動。每單位聯運總營收下滑1%，因燃油回收組合較低的影響，抵銷了核心定價持續穩健的成長。最後，我們的聯運貨量中已有90%在可雙層堆疊（double stack）通行的路線上運行。透過策略性網路投資，該比例將持續提升，其中最重要的是華盛頓特區Virginia Avenue Tunnel淨空改善工程。

Now, let's turn to the outlook for the first quarter. Looking forward, we expect stable to favorable conditions for over 90% of our markets and the overall volume outlook for the first quarter is positive.

現在，讓我們談談第一季展望。展望未來，我們預期超過90%的市場將維持穩定至有利的環境，而第一季整體運量展望為正向。

Looking at some of the key markets, agriculture is favorable with higher year-over-year crop yields supporting continued growth in grain shipments. The outlook for the automotive market is also favorable as North American light vehicle production continues to grow. We expect growth in chemicals as we continue to capture opportunities created by the expanding domestic oil and gas industry.

就部分關鍵市場而言，農業面向有利，年增的作物單產支撐穀物出貨持續成長。汽車市場展望亦偏有利，因北美輕型車產量持續增加。隨著國內油氣產業擴張所帶來的機會持續浮現，我們預期化學品將成長。

We expect our domestic coal volume will grow in the first quarter, as we cycle a relatively weak first quarter in 2013. At the same time, our outlook for full-year domestic coal volume is neutral, but the average length of haul will be shorter this year, and will contribute to a lower overall revenue per unit.

我們預期第一季國內煤炭運量將成長，因去年2013年第一季基期相對偏弱。同時，我們對全年國內煤炭運量展望為中性，但今年平均運距將縮短，並將導致整體每單位營收較低。

The continued expansion into US housing and construction markets will drive growth of forest products and in our mineral markets. Strong intermodal growth will continue as our strategic network investments and service reliability support highway-to-rail conversions. The outlook for our phosphate and fertilizer volumes is neutral due to high inventory levels and volatile commodity pricing, which produces uncertainty in the market.

持續擴展至美國住宅與建築市場，將帶動林產品以及礦物市場的成長。在策略性網路投資與服務可靠性支持公路轉鐵路運輸的情況下，強勁的聯運成長將持續。由於庫存水位偏高且商品價格波動，造成市場不確定性，我們對磷酸鹽與肥料運量展望為中性。

Finally, export coal. Volume is expected to decline in the first quarter and our best estimate of 2014 volume is in the mid-30 million ton range, reflecting soft global market conditions, particularly in the thermal market. At the same time, rail pricing will remain low in order to help keep US coals competitive globally, and optimize our bottom line.

最後是出口煤。我們預期第一季運量將下滑，而對2014年運量的最佳估計約在3,000多萬噸的區間，反映全球市場環境疲弱，尤其是動力煤市場。同時，為協助美國煤在全球維持競爭力並最佳化我們的獲利，鐵路運價將維持在低檔。

Now, I'll wrap up on the next slide. The expansion of the US economy is expected to continue with projected GDP and IDP growth of 2.7% and 3%, respectively. In addition, both the ISM purchasing managers and the customer inventory indices point to continued expansion in 2014. Looking at the full year, our merchandise and intermodal volumes are expected to grow faster than the overall economy, with gains offsetting the continued headwinds in coal, particularly the export market.

接著我在下一張投影片做個總結。預期美國經濟擴張將持續，GDP與IDP的成長預估分別為2.7%與3%。此外，ISM採購經理人指數與客戶庫存指數皆顯示2014年將持續擴張。就全年而言，我們的商品運輸與聯運運量預期將快於整體經濟成長，其增幅可抵銷煤炭持續面臨的逆風，尤其是出口市場。

Our intermodal business is expected to be the major growth engine for CSX going forward as we look to further tap into an estimated 9 million truck load opportunity which aligns very well with our network by leveraging a strong service product, our Highway-to-Rail or H2R initiative and strategic investments in both terminal and network capacity. For example, in 2014 we will complete our new terminal in Montreal and expand the capacity of the northwest Ohio intermodal hub. Finally, the value of the service we provide continues to support both growth and pricing above rail inflation over the long term.

展望未來，聯運業務預期將成為CSX的主要成長引擎；我們將進一步掌握估計約900萬車次的卡車載運機會，透過強而有力的服務產品、我們的公路轉鐵路（Highway-to-Rail，H2R）計畫，以及在場站與網路運能上的策略性投資，使其與我們的網路高度契合。例如，2014年我們將完成蒙特婁新場站，並擴增俄亥俄州西北部聯運樞紐的容量。最後，我們所提供服務的價值，長期而言將持續支撐成長，並支持高於鐵路通膨的定價。

Thank you. And now I'll turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

謝謝。接下來我把簡報交給Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運成果。

Thank you, Clarence and good morning everyone. I'm pleased to report that 2013 was a year highlighted by an industry leading safety record, consistent high levels of service for our customers, and continued efficiency gains. As you know, safety is our first and foremost priority.

謝謝你，Clarence，各位早安。我很高興報告，2013年是以業界領先的安全紀錄、為客戶提供一貫的高水準服務，以及效率持續提升為亮點的一年。如各位所知，安全是我們首要且最重要的優先事項。

In 2013, CSX continued to evolve its public and employee safety programs, leading the industry in both personal injury and train accident frequency rates. While we are pleased with those accomplishments, we are saddened by the loss of four employees last year and are committed to avoid such tragedies and to keep all our employees and the communities in which we work safe.

2013年，CSX持續精進其公共與員工安全計畫，在人身傷害與列車事故發生頻率方面皆領先業界。儘管我們對這些成果感到欣慰，但對去年四位員工的離世深感哀痛；我們承諾避免此類悲劇，並確保所有員工以及我們營運所在的社區安全。

Let me now turn to the Company's operating performance. While overall performance remains strong, some of the measures were down slightly in the fourth quarter, both for CSX and the rest of the industry.

接著我談談公司的營運表現。雖然整體表現仍然強勁，但第四季部分指標略有下滑，CSX與整個產業皆然。

This is in part due to more challenging weather conditions at the end of 2013, combined with strong volume levels driven by the record grain harvest, crude oil shipments and peak intermodal levels. Looking at our network measures, velocity held fairly constant and dwell improved once again in the fourth quarter. This is evidence of our strong asset utilization and ability to keep the network fluid in the face of difficult operating conditions.

部分原因是2013年底天候條件更具挑戰性，加上在創紀錄穀物收成、原油出貨與聯運旺季水準帶動下，運量維持強勁。就我們的網路指標而言，運行速度大致持平，而停留時間（dwell）在第四季再次改善。這證明我們具備強勁的資產運用效率，並能在艱難的營運條件下維持網路順暢。

Now, before I turn to my resource management discussion on the next slide, let me just quickly express my gratitude to all the field personnel at CSX for their professionalism, drive, and extra efforts to serve our customers safely and efficiently during these last few challenging weeks. Thank you all.

在我於下一張投影片進入資源管理的討論之前，先快速向CSX所有第一線同仁表達感謝，感謝各位在過去幾週充滿挑戰的期間，以專業、衝勁與額外付出，安全且有效率地為客戶提供服務。謝謝大家。

Now turning to slide 15. Carloads were up 6% and gross ton miles were up 6.5% in the quarter as we saw strong growth in customer shipments. Moving down the chart, you can see that resource counts were up significantly less than volume, driving continued efficiency gains. Road crew starts were only up about 3.5%, primarily as a result of growth in unit train commodities such as grain and crude oil. The active locomotive count was up 3%, largely due to higher volume as overall efficiency improved once again.

現在請看第15頁。本季車皮裝載量（carloads）成長6%，總噸英里（gross ton miles）成長6.5%，反映客戶出貨強勁成長。往下看圖表可見，資源數量的增幅明顯小於運量，帶動效率持續提升。路線乘務開工次數僅增加約3.5%，主要因穀物與原油等單元列車商品成長所致。在整體效率再次改善下，使用中的機車數量增加3%，主要反映運量較高。

Looking sequentially, the active locomotive count rose by approximately 150 units from the third to the fourth quarter to handle the increased volume. In fact, we anticipated even more savings from locomotive productivity as we had seen earlier in the year but made the conscious decision to keep these locomotives active to support more fluid operations.

若按季比較，為因應運量增加，使用中的機車數量自第三季至第四季約增加150台。事實上，我們原本預期機車生產力可帶來更多節省（如同年初所見），但我們有意識地決定讓這些機車維持在役，以支持更順暢的營運。

Furthermore, we have retained these units in service in the early part of 2014, to provide extra recoverability during this especially harsh early winter. As the year progresses, we will continue to flex our resources as quickly as possible based on volume, service demands, and of course operating conditions.

此外，在2014年初期，我們也保留這些機車持續投入服務，以在這個特別嚴酷的初冬期間提供額外的復原能力。隨著年度推進，我們將依據運量、服務需求，當然還有營運條件，盡可能快速地彈性調整資源。

Finally, total operations employment was essentially flat in the quarter, reflecting significant improvements in employee efficiency against the volume gains in the quarter.

最後，本季營運部門總員工數基本持平，反映在本季運量成長下，員工效率顯著提升。

Let's now look at full year efficiency savings on slide 16. As a result of the operating team's tremendous focus to deliver productivity while maintaining high service levels, CSX generated $158 million of efficiency savings in 2013, in line with our guidance. The most significant cost savings in the year came from fuel efficiency initiatives, crew productivity and improved locomotive utilization. Further, I am pleased to tell you today that we once again have good line of sight to specific initiatives for further savings and expect to generate over $130 million of efficiency savings in 2014.

接著請看第16頁的全年效率節省。由於營運團隊在維持高服務水準的同時，對提升生產力高度聚焦，CSX於2013年創造1.58億美元的效率節省，符合我們的指引。本年度最顯著的成本節省來自燃油效率措施、乘務生產力以及機車運用率提升。此外，我也很高興今天向各位表示，我們再次清楚掌握可帶來進一步節省的具體措施，並預期2014年將創造超過1.3億美元的效率節省。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. CSX's primary focus remains ensuring that all our employees and the communities we work in stay safe. Service remains at high levels and customer satisfaction is an all-time high. CSX recently received a record score in a third party survey of our customers, eclipsing 2012's previous high.

現在讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。CSX 的首要重點仍是確保我們所有員工以及我們所服務的社區都能保持安全。服務水準仍維持在高檔，客戶滿意度更創下歷史新高。CSX 最近在第三方客戶調查中獲得創紀錄的分數，超越 2012 年先前的高點。

We will build on this success to continue providing flexible solutions for our customers to enable growth while improving our asset utilization. Lastly, as I mentioned, I'm very pleased with the operating team's delivery of over $150 million in savings in 2013 and feel very confident about our ability to generate another year of at least $130 million of savings in 2014.

我們將在此成功基礎上再接再厲，持續為客戶提供具彈性的解決方案，以在提升資產使用效率的同時促進成長。最後，如我所提到的，我對營運團隊在 2013 年交付超過 1.5 億美元的節省成果感到非常滿意，並且對我們在 2014 年再創至少 1.3 億美元節省的能力充滿信心。

So with that, let me turn the presentation over to Fredrik to review the financials.

那麼，接下來我把簡報交給 Fredrik 來回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar and good morning everyone. Looking at the top line, revenue increased 5% in the fourth quarter as gains in merchandise and intermodal continued to offset the decline in coal. Expenses increased 7% versus last year as increased labor, MS&O and depreciation cost more than offset favorability in fuel and rents. Operating income was at $813 million, down $2 million versus the prior year.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。從營收端來看，第四季營收成長 5%，商品運輸與聯運的增長持續抵銷煤炭下滑。費用較去年增加 7%，因勞務、MS&O 與折舊成本的增加，超過燃料與租金的有利因素。營業利益為 8.13 億美元，較前一年減少 200 萬美元。

Looking below the line, interest expense was down $6 million versus last year, driven by modestly lower debt levels and favorable interest rates on debt that was refinanced in 2013. Other income declined $59 million, primarily driven by the cycling of a $57 million pretax gain on the sale of a nonoperating property in the fourth quarter of 2012.

再看營業利益以下項目，利息費用較去年減少 600 萬美元，主要受惠於債務水位小幅下降，以及 2013 年再融資債務的利率較為有利。其他收入減少 5,900 萬美元，主要是因 2012 年第四季出售一項非營運性不動產所認列的 5,700 萬美元稅前處分利益不再重複。

Income taxes were $248 million in the quarter, for an effective tax rate of approximately 37%. Overall, net earnings were $426 million, and EPS was $0.42 per share, down from $449 million and $0.44, respectively, from the prior year period. The prior year period has been revised and includes a revenue adjustment which increased EPS of $0.01 per share, the details of which are disclosed in the quarterly financial report.

本季所得稅為 2.48 億美元，有效稅率約 37%。整體而言，淨利為 4.26 億美元，每股盈餘（EPS）為每股 0.42 美元，低於去年同期的 4.49 億美元與每股 0.44 美元。去年同期數已修訂並納入一項營收調整，使 EPS 增加每股 0.01 美元；相關細節已揭露於季度財務報告中。

As we turn to the next slide, let's briefly discuss how fuel lag impacted the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the effect of the lag in our fuel surcharge program was $2 million favorable. This reflects $7 million of positive in-quarter lag during the fourth quarter 2013, versus $5 million of positive in-quarter lag for the same period in the prior year. Based on the current forward curve, we would expect the year-over-year fuel lag impact to be roughly flat in the first quarter.

接著到下一張投影片，我們簡要說明燃料落後（fuel lag）對本季的影響。以年對年來看，我們燃料附加費計畫中的落後效應帶來 200 萬美元的有利影響。這反映 2013 年第四季當季正向落後為 700 萬美元，而去年同期當季正向落後為 500 萬美元。依目前遠期曲線判斷，我們預期第一季燃料落後的年對年影響大致持平。

Turning to the next slide, let's review our expenses. Overall expenses increased 7% in the quarter. I will talk about the top three expense items in more detail on the next slide, but let me first briefly speak to the bottom two on this chart.

接著到下一張投影片，我們來檢視費用。整體費用本季增加 7%。我會在下一張投影片更詳細說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談談此圖表中最下方的兩項。

Depreciation was up 4% to $281 million, due to the increase in the net asset base. Looking at 2014, we anticipate depreciation to be up around $10 million on a year-over-year basis in the first -- in each quarter. Equipment rent was down 2% to $95 million, as efficiency more than offset higher volume related costs.

折舊增加 4% 至 2.81 億美元，原因是淨資產基礎增加。展望 2014 年，我們預期折舊在年對年基礎下，每一季約增加 1,000 萬美元。設備租金下降 2% 至 9,500 萬美元，因效率提升足以抵銷與較高運量相關的成本。

Now let's discuss our other expenses starting with Labor and Fringe on the left. Labor and Fringe expense increased 7% or $51 million versus last year on higher incentive compensation, volume related costs associated with a 6.5% increase in gross ton miles and inflation. Looking at 2014, we currently expect employment levels to remain roughly flat. In addition, we expect labor inflation to increase around $15 million to $20 million on a year-over-year basis in each quarter. We also expect full-year incentive compensation to no longer be a headwind.

現在我們來討論其他費用，先從左側的勞務與附加福利（Labor and Fringe）開始。勞務與附加福利費用較去年增加 7% 或 5,100 萬美元，主要因較高的獎勵性薪酬、與總噸英里（gross ton miles）成長 6.5% 相關的運量成本，以及通膨。展望 2014 年，我們目前預期員工人數水準大致持平。此外，我們預期勞務通膨在年對年基礎下，每一季約增加 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元。我們也預期全年獎勵性薪酬不再成為不利因素。

Moving to the right on the slide, MS&O expense increased 17% or $93 million versus last year, driven by the cycling of $35 million of real estate gains recognized in 2012, as well as $31 million increase in expenses related to higher volume and resource levels. Moving down the table, inflation was up $11 million, and lastly, lower derailment related expenses were more than offset by unfavorable year-over-year casualty adjustments netting to a cost increase of $16 million.

移到投影片右側，MS&O 費用較去年增加 17% 或 9,300 萬美元，主要因 2012 年認列的 3,500 萬美元不動產利益不再重複，以及因運量與資源水準提高而使相關費用增加 3,100 萬美元。再往下看，通膨增加 1,100 萬美元；最後，雖然與出軌相關的費用下降，但不利的年對年傷亡（casualty）調整在抵銷後，仍使成本淨增加 1,600 萬美元。

Looking at the first half of 2014, MS&O expense will continue to be impacted by the cycling of real estate gains which, as a reminder, totaled $49 million in the first quarter and $36 million in the second quarter of 2013. In addition, we expect higher year-over-year expenses related to inflation and volume growth. Lastly, fuel expense decreased 3% or $13 million versus last year, as favorable price, driven by a 7% decline in our fuel price per gallon and an improvement in efficiency more than offset higher volume related costs.

展望 2014 年上半年，MS&O 費用仍將受到不動產利益不再重複的影響；提醒一下，2013 年第一季與第二季的不動產利益分別為 4,900 萬美元與 3,600 萬美元。此外，我們預期與通膨及運量成長相關的年對年費用將更高。最後，燃料費用較去年下降 3% 或 1,300 萬美元；受惠於價格有利（主要因每加侖燃料價格下降 7%）以及效率改善，足以抵銷與較高運量相關的成本。

Looking back on the quarter as a whole, CSX delivered strong top line performance. However, the $137 million revenue increase did not flow through the bottom line as we would normally expect it, reflecting difficult expense comparisons. Most notably, headwinds in real estate gains, incentive compensation and net casualty cost combined to lower operating income by $75 million year-over-year.

回顧整體季度，CSX 在營收端交出強勁表現。然而，1.37 億美元的營收增量並未如我們通常預期般反映到獲利端，主要是因費用比較基期較為艱難。最顯著的是，不動產利益、獎勵性薪酬與淨傷亡成本等不利因素合計，使營業利益年對年下降 7,500 萬美元。

As I look at 2014, and we finish cycling our real estate gains in the first half, we expect to once again be able to deliver earnings growth in the second half. With that, let's turn to CSX's full year results on the next slide.

展望 2014 年，隨著我們在上半年完成不動產利益的比較基期循環後，我們預期下半年將再次能夠實現獲利成長。接著，讓我們在下一張投影片看看 CSX 的全年結果。

On a full-year basis, revenue was up 2% to just over $12 billion, as volume growth in merchandise and intermodal, pricing gains in higher liquidated damages more than offset coal revenue declines. Total expense for the year was up 3%, as higher inflation, volume related costs, incentive compensation and depreciation were partially offset by productivity savings. As a result, full-year operating income was up slightly year over year while the operating ratio was 71.1% versus 70.6% in the prior year.

以全年來看，營收成長 2% 至略高於 120 億美元；商品運輸與聯運的運量成長，以及定價收益與較高的約定損害賠償金（liquidated damages），足以抵銷煤炭營收下滑。全年總費用增加 3%，因較高的通膨、與運量相關的成本、獎勵性薪酬與折舊，部分被生產力節省所抵銷。因此，全年營業利益較去年略增，而營業比率為 71.1%，相較前一年的 70.6%。

Finally, earnings per share increased 2% reflecting the impact of our share repurchase program. Here again, prior quarters have been revised for revenue adjustment. As a result of the adjustment, there was no net impact for the full-year 2012 while full-year 2013 decreases by $0.02 per share, the details of which are disclosed in the quarterly financial report.

最後，每股盈餘成長 2%，反映我們庫藏股回購計畫的影響。同樣地，先前季度已因營收調整而修訂。由於該調整，2012 全年淨影響為零，而 2013 全年每股盈餘減少 0.02 美元；相關細節已揭露於季度財務報告中。

Now let's discuss some of the key drivers of CSX's full-year performance. Challenges in our coal business resulted in 2013 being another transition year for CSX. The Company lost $295 million of coal revenue in 2013, after losing over $500 million in 2012.

現在我們來討論 CSX 全年表現的一些關鍵驅動因素。煤炭業務面臨的挑戰使 2013 年成為 CSX 另一個轉型年。公司在 2013 年流失 2.95 億美元的煤炭營收，此前在 2012 年已流失超過 5 億美元。

We are pleased that we've been able to deliver modest earnings per share growth in each of the last two years, despite facing such steep headwinds in our coal business. 2013 was made even more challenging by several other headwinds outside of coal including higher incentive compensation and lower real estate gains, which total nearly $130 million relative to 2012. These higher costs were partially offset by higher liquidated damages, due to customer contractual shortfalls. As a result, the net year-over-year impact of these other items was about $40 million unfavorable.

我們很高興，儘管煤炭業務面臨如此強勁的逆風，我們仍能在過去兩年每年都實現溫和的每股盈餘成長。2013 年因煤炭以外的多項逆風而更具挑戰，包括較高的獎勵性薪酬與較低的不動產利益，兩者合計相較 2012 年接近 1.3 億美元。這些較高成本部分被較高的約定損害賠償金所抵銷，該賠償金源於客戶合約履約不足。因此，這些其他項目的年對年淨影響約為 4,000 萬美元的不利。

However, CSX continued to execute well on the things that are more within our control. We generated efficiency savings in excess of inflation, delivered industry-leading safety results, and achieved notable improvements in customer satisfaction. Strong service allowed CSX to capitalize on key secular growth trends, such as increasing demand for oil and gas related shipments, and the continued highway-to-rail conversion east of the Mississippi.

然而，CSX 持續在我們較能掌控的事項上執行良好。我們創造了超過通膨的效率節省，交出業界領先的安全成果，並在客戶滿意度方面取得顯著改善。強勁的服務使 CSX 得以掌握若干關鍵的長期成長趨勢，例如與油氣相關運輸需求增加，以及密西西比河以東持續由公路轉向鐵路的運輸轉換。

These trends combined with broader economic growth to drive nearly $485 million in incremental merchandise and intermodal revenue in 2013. Looking forward, we believe that maintaining superior service levels for our customers will enable merchandise and intermodal to collectively grow at a pace exceeding broader economic activity long-term. As a result of this growth opportunity, we remain committed to reinvesting in our business, which we will discuss further on the next slide.

這些趨勢再加上更廣泛的經濟成長，推動 2013 年商品與聯運營收增加近 4.85 億美元。展望未來，我們相信，為客戶維持卓越的服務水準，將使商品與聯運長期合計以高於整體經濟活動的速度成長。基於此成長機會，我們仍致力於再投資於本業，下一張投影片我們將進一步說明。

In 2014, CSX plans to invest $2.3 billion in our business, flat to 2013. In the chart on the left, you can see that over half the capital spending in 2014 will again be used to maintain core infrastructure to help ensure safe and fluid network.

2014 年，CSX 計畫投資 23 億美元於本業，與 2013 年持平。在左側圖表中，您可以看到 2014 年超過一半的資本支出將再次用於維護核心基礎設施，以協助確保網路安全且順暢。

In addition, our equipment investment in locomotive and freight cars ensures CSX has the appropriate level of rolling stock to support commercial demand projections. We will also continue to focus on strategic investments that support long-term profitable growth and productivity initiatives that improve the returns of the business.

此外，我們在機車與貨車方面的設備投資，確保 CSX 擁有適當水準的車輛（rolling stock），以支援商業需求預測。我們也將持續聚焦於支持長期獲利成長的策略性投資，以及提升企業報酬的生產力計畫。

Finally, positive train control, which in total is still expected to cost $1.7 billion, represents $300 million of spending in 2014, leaving approximately $500 million to be spent in the coming years to complete the project. Profitable reinvestment in our business is just one part of our balanced approach to cash deployment.

最後，正向列車控制（PTC）整體仍預期成本為 17 億美元，其中 2014 年支出 3 億美元，未來幾年約仍需支出 5 億美元以完成該專案。對本業進行具獲利性的再投資，只是我們平衡現金運用策略的一部分。

Let's turn to slide 26 to discuss the other two: dividends and share buybacks. CSX paid dividends of $0.59 per share in 2013, up 9% versus the prior year, and builds on 11 increases we have made over the last eight years. Going forward, CSX remains committed to a dividend payout range of 30% to 35% of trailing 12 months earnings, and this will be reviewed annually after the first quarter.

讓我們看第 26 張投影片，討論另外兩項：股利與庫藏股回購。CSX 於 2013 年每股支付股利 0.59 美元，較前一年增加 9%，並延續我們在過去八年中進行的 11 次調升。展望未來，CSX 仍承諾股利發放比率維持在過去 12 個月盈餘的 30% 至 35% 區間，並將於第一季後每年檢視一次。

Moving to the right, CSX repurchased $353 million over the course of the year, and is on track to complete its current $1 billion authorization by the beginning of the second quarter of 2015. Collectively, CSX has now repurchased $4.1 billion of shares since the start of 2010, and $8.3 billion of shares since the beginning of 2006, the latter representing over one third of total shares outstanding.

再看右側，CSX 全年回購 3.53 億美元，並正按計畫於 2015 年第二季初完成目前 10 億美元的核准額度。合計而言，自 2010 年初以來 CSX 已回購 41 億美元的股票；自 2006 年初以來已回購 83 億美元的股票，後者相當於流通在外總股數的三分之一以上。

Let me wrap up on the next slide. Despite a modest setback in the operating ratio in 2013, CSX remains on track to achieve high 60s operating ratio by 2015. Moreover, our focus on efficiency improvements, profitable volume growth and pricing above rail inflation will keep us on the right path to sustain a mid-60s operating ratio longer term. However, achieving a 10% to 15% EPS CAGR over the next two years will clearly be more challenging than we envisioned in early 2013 for two key reasons.

我在下一張投影片做個總結。儘管 2013 年營運比率小幅倒退，CSX 仍按計畫在 2015 年達成 60% 高段的營運比率。此外，我們聚焦於效率改善、具獲利性的運量成長，以及高於鐵路通膨的定價，將使我們走在正確道路上，長期維持 60% 中段的營運比率。然而，在未來兩年達成每股盈餘（EPS）10% 至 15% 的年複合成長率（CAGR），顯然會比我們在 2013 年初所設想的更具挑戰，主要有兩個原因。

First, 2013 benefited from favorable items, most notably liquidated damages and real estate gains, which we do not expect to occur at the same rate over the next two years. As a result, we are starting with a higher 2013 base than was originally anticipated. In addition, as we have discussed on prior calls, our EPS guidance was based on expectation that total coal revenue would be flat over the 2013, 2015 time period.

第一，2013 年受惠於有利項目，最顯著的是違約金（liquidated damages）與不動產處分利益；我們預期未來兩年不會以相同頻率出現。因此，我們的起點是高於原先預期的 2013 年基期。此外，如同我們在先前的電話會議中討論過，我們的 EPS 指引係基於 2013 至 2015 年期間煤炭總營收持平的預期。

Unfortunately, coming into 2014, both domestic and export coal markets have not stabilized to the extent we had originally anticipated. As such, we currently expect additional year-over-year coal revenue declines in 2014. As a result, coal revenues will now need to improve in 2015 for us to achieve the low end of our EPS guidance.

不幸的是，進入 2014 年時，無論國內或出口煤炭市場的穩定程度，都未達到我們原先的預期。因此，我們目前預期 2014 年煤炭營收將出現額外的年對年下滑。因此，煤炭營收現在必須在 2015 年改善，我們才能達成 EPS 指引的低端目標。

Despite this challenge, we continue to believe that coal will stabilize as it settles into its new role within our nation's energy portfolio. When this happens, we are confident that CSX's ability to price above rail inflation, drive efficiency improvements and grow profitably will combine to once again drive sustainable double-digit earnings per share growth.

儘管面臨此挑戰，我們仍相信，隨著煤炭在我國能源組合中落定其新角色，煤炭將趨於穩定。當此發生時，我們有信心 CSX 高於鐵路通膨的定價能力、推動效率改善以及具獲利性的成長，將共同再次帶動可持續的每股盈餘雙位數成長。

With that let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

接下來我把簡報交回 Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Fredrik. In 2013 our team once again demonstrated the ability to manage through the volatility of the marketplace by focusing on the things we control the most and delivering value for customers and shareholders. As we look to the year ahead, we see broad-based growth across most of our markets.

謝謝你，Fredrik。2013 年，我們的團隊再次展現了在市場波動中仍能妥善管理的能力，透過聚焦於我們最能掌控的事項，為客戶與股東創造價值。展望未來一年，我們看到大多數市場呈現廣泛的成長。

While the headwinds in coal will persist in 2014, CSX's merchandise and intermodal markets, which now collectively represent 83% of our volume, are expected to grow at a rate higher than the overall economy. Over the past four years alone, these markets have collectively added $2.7 billion of revenue to our top line, and allowed CSX to still produce earnings growth while going through the evolution in the energy markets. Continued growth in these markets along with greater efficiency and inflation plus pricing that reflects the value of our service will help us grow profitably long term.

雖然煤炭的逆風將在 2014 年持續，但 CSX 的商品與聯運市場目前合計占我們運量的 83%，預期將以高於整體經濟的速度成長。僅在過去四年，這些市場合計為我們的營收增加 27 億美元，並使 CSX 即使在能源市場演變期間，仍能實現獲利成長。這些市場的持續成長，加上更高的效率，以及反映我們服務價值、並高於通膨的定價，將有助於我們長期實現具獲利性的成長。

Fredrik mentioned earlier this is another transition year for CSX as we adjust to the new energy environment. But when I look to the future, I see a vibrant business with a diverse portfolio, capable of sustaining double-digits earnings growth long term. I'm confident we can capitalize on the momentum before us as the economy continues to grow and as the nation increasingly recognizes the economic and environmental benefits of rail transportation. And now we'll be glad to take your questions.

Fredrik 先前提到，這是 CSX 因應新能源環境調整的另一個轉型年度。但展望未來，我看到的是一個充滿活力、投資組合多元的企業，具備長期維持獲利雙位數成長的能力。我有信心，隨著經濟持續成長，以及全國日益認同鐵路運輸的經濟與環境效益，我們能把握眼前的動能。現在我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session.

謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

And our first question comes from Mr. William Greene of Morgan Stanley. You may ask your question.

我們的第一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 William Greene 先生。您可以提問。

Hi, good morning. Good morning.

嗨，早安。早安。

Clarence, maybe I can start with you, just on some of the volume commentary. Very good volume trends in the fourth quarter but how do we think about that sustaining? You went through a lot of positives in terms of the buckets that you discussed here.

Clarence，也許我先從你開始，談談一些運量的評論。第四季的運量趨勢非常好，但我們該如何看待其延續性？你提到了許多正面因素，涵蓋你在這裡談到的各個類別。

The strength so far though this year hasn't been there. So can you sort of scrape apart the weather from the underlying and talk a little bit about how you feel the underlying freight environment looks for you? Does it feel like it's accelerating or just kind of stable because we saw an acceleration in the fourth quarter.

不過，今年迄今為止的強勁程度並沒有出現。所以你能否把天氣因素與基本面拆開來看，並談談你對基本貨運環境的看法？你覺得是在加速，還是大致穩定？因為我們在第四季看到加速。

Well good morning, Bill. I would describe it as this: the first two weeks were essentially from a freight standpoint a non-event due to the weather impact that occurred as you're aware. We had severe weather across the north end of our railroad, a lot of freight was backed up.

嗯，早安，Bill。我會這樣描述：從貨運角度來看，前兩週基本上因你所知的天氣影響而沒有代表性。我們鐵路北端遭遇嚴重天候，許多貨運出現積壓。

It's my view is that by the end of the quarter we will have recovered any of that revenue and freight that we would have lost. In fact, just this week when we report our numbers for the week, you'll find that our volumes have picked up significantly. So on the first part of your question, I feel very positive as we move into the first part of this year.

我認為到本季末，我們將能追回原本可能流失的任何營收與貨運量。事實上，就在本週，當我們公布本週數據時，你會發現我們的運量已顯著回升。因此，就你問題的第一部分而言，隨著我們進入今年的前段，我感到非常正面。

And looking forward into this year, the economic indicators that I see show a moderately expanding US economy. And so I feel good that we can continue both in our intermodal area and our agricultural area and in our chemical areas, both traditional chemicals and those that are related to the oil and gas exploration industry. I feel very positive in those regards. So I think, Bill, we're going to have a very good 2014.

展望今年，我所看到的經濟指標顯示美國經濟正以溫和的速度擴張。因此我對我們能夠在聯運業務、農業業務以及化學品業務（包括傳統化學品與與油氣勘探產業相關的化學品）持續推進感到樂觀。在這些方面我感覺非常正面。所以我認為，Bill，我們在2014年會有非常好的一年。

Okay. So given that outlook, how soon is it before you can start to push a little bit harder on the pricing where things are strong. We obviously understand the export coal challenges but when you look at the areas of strength, how long does it take before the market will start to allow you to price higher, so accelerating pricing in those segments?

好的。那麼基於這樣的展望，在強勢的領域上，你們要多久才能開始在定價上更積極一些？我們當然理解出口煤炭的挑戰，但當你看向那些具備優勢的領域時，市場需要多久才會允許你們提高價格，從而在那些板塊加速提價？

Well our pricing last quarter, as you know, at 2.9% on all commodities, our merchandise and intermodal commodities, excluding coal, could have been slightly higher, somewhere in the 3.2% area, had the impact of RCAF in the fourth quarter not have been negative. So we feel like we're pricing, except for that coal, near what we would view as what long-term inflation is, which is 3% to 4%. Current inflation last year as you know came in very low.

嗯，我們上季的定價，如你所知，所有品類合計為2.9%；我們的商品與聯運品類（不含煤炭）本來可以略高一些，大約在3.2%左右，若不是第四季RCAF的影響為負。所以我們覺得，除了煤炭之外，我們的定價接近我們所認為的長期通膨水準，也就是3%到4%。如你所知，去年當前通膨非常低。

And the current projection for inflation by Global Insights, that came out on January 14 is at 1.5%. So with the pricing we already have in place, you'll see our pricing start to firm up here in 2014. Now, where we have longer term contracts, that may take six months, nine months, until they come up for renewal before you'll see the impact on those.

而Global Insights在1月14日發布的最新通膨預測為1.5%。因此，憑藉我們已經到位的定價，你會看到我們的定價在2014年開始走穩。不過，在我們有較長期合約的地方，可能要六個月、九個月，等到合約到期續約後，你才會看到對那些合約的影響。

Okay. Thanks for the time.

好的。謝謝你撥冗。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Anthony Gallo with Wells Fargo. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Wells Fargo的Anthony Gallo先生。您可以提問。

Good morning. I actually have a crude by rail question. It looks like there might be some regulatory changes coming, largely focused on the tank car itself.

早安。我其實有一個關於鐵路運輸原油（crude by rail） 的問題。看起來可能會有一些監管變更，主要聚焦在槽車本身。

And I'm curious if there's a grace period so to speak to retrofit some of these general purpose cars. Do you need to think differently about your pricing or more specifically your liability exposure on some of those older cars that may or may not meet the new regulations?

我想了解是否有所謂的寬限期，讓部分通用型車輛可以進行改裝。你們是否需要以不同方式思考定價，或更具體地說，對於那些可能符合或不符合新規的舊車，你們的責任風險曝險是否需要重新評估？

Oscar, would you like to take that one, please?

Oscar，請你回答這題，好嗎？

Thank you, yes. Clearly from a tank car standard perspective, there are many discussions and conversations going about that. As we move forward, clearly we will take all of that into account and in working with our regulators and our customers and try to ensure that we have the best sort of footstep going forward.

謝謝，是的。很明顯，從槽車標準的角度來看，相關議題目前有很多討論與對話正在進行。往前走，我們當然會把這些因素都納入考量，並與監管機構及客戶合作，力求確保未來能以最佳方式推進。

Is your -- and it might be a guess at this point -- that the changes will not be material, so there will be some higher cost but not material enough to really change the trajectory of that business, is that a fair way to think about it at this point?

你們的看法是——雖然此刻可能只能猜測——這些變更不會造成重大影響，也就是成本會提高但不足以真正改變這項業務的發展軌跡；以目前來看，這樣理解是否合理？

It's hard to say at this point in time. I think those standards are under review, under the PHMSA organization, and I think as we get information from them we'll get a better sense of that.

目前很難說。我認為這些標準正在PHMSA機構之下接受審查；隨著我們從他們那裡取得更多資訊，我們會更清楚。

That's fair (multiple speakers) --.

這樣也合理（多位發言者）——。

This is Michael. You do know these cars are largely owned by the customers or leasing companies and at least there's some speculation out there, there may be some requirements for retrofits of -- there's been various discussions of how much those retrofits should be. So again, it will probably be a number of months as that evolves but our guess is that the required expense, while large, won't impact our ability to move this crude by rail.

我是Michael。你也知道，這些車輛多半由客戶或租賃公司持有；外界也有一些推測，可能會要求進行改裝——而關於改裝幅度應該多大，已有各種討論。所以同樣地，這可能還需要幾個月才會逐步明朗；但我們的猜測是，所需支出雖然可觀，仍不至於影響我們以鐵路運輸原油的能力。

That makes sense. Thank you, gentlemen.

了解。謝謝各位先生。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Ken Hoexter with Merrill Lynch. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Merrill Lynch的Ken Hoexter先生。您可以提問。

Great. Good morning. Oscar, the on-time arrivals and delayed departures slipped a bit, it looks like year over year. And just wondering, how when you think about the $130 million of productivity costs, how that impacts I guess the goal of ultimately what Michael was talking about in terms of double-digit earnings growth. How do you think about that? Is the productivity or the operation and performance part of that goal or is that outside of that goal?

很好。早安。Oscar，準點到達與延遲出發看起來年比年略有下滑。我想請教，當你思考那1.3億美元的生產力成本時，這對Michael所談到的最終目標——也就是兩位數的獲利成長——會有什麼影響？你怎麼看待這件事？生產力或營運與績效是否屬於該目標的一部分，還是說那是在目標之外？

No, productivity has always been part of our overall goal. And as we discuss the fourth quarter, you just have to keep in mind that we experienced one of the first true fall peaks in recent memory with the strong growth across all the markets that Clarence discussed.

不，生產力一直都是我們整體目標的一部分。而在我們討論第四季時，你必須記得，我們經歷了近年記憶中第一次真正的秋季旺季，因為如Clarence所說，各個市場都出現強勁成長。

And while we did have some modest impact to, as you mentioned, departures and arrivals when the harsh weather arrived and then we had a couple derailments in critical spots, all the things that, an outdoor sport of railroading eventually faces. I'm very confident, incredibly confident, we can continue to improve our service and operate safely while we get the productivity.

雖然當嚴寒天氣來襲時，我們在你提到的出發與到達方面確實受到一些輕微影響，接著又在關鍵地點發生了幾起出軌事故——這些都是鐵路營運這項戶外運動終究會面對的事情。我非常有信心、極其有信心，我們能在提升生產力的同時，持續改善服務並安全營運。

Those initiatives that we have for next year are very much aligned and the objectives are being worked by the team, so it really -- it's part of the overall goal and we have great line of sight to them.

我們明年的那些措施高度一致，目標也正由團隊推進，所以——這確實是整體目標的一部分，而且我們對達成路徑有非常清晰的掌握。

Great. That's very helpful. If I could just get a follow-up on -- Clarence mentioned targeting flat domestic coal. After a 10% dip this quarter, I just wonder is there something changing or comps or a lost contract or anything else that's in there that gives the confidence that we're going to see it, on the domestic utility side, move back to flat?

很好。這非常有幫助。我想再追問一下——Clarence提到目標是國內煤炭持平。在本季下滑10%之後，我想知道是否有什麼變化、比較基期因素、流失合約或其他原因，使你們有信心在國內公用事業端能回到持平？

Well Ken, on the first quarter we think it will actually be up on a year-over-year basis because we're on weak comparables. Last year's first quarter was weak. On a full-year basis, we think we've seen coal start to bottom out, is point number one.

Ken，就第一季而言，我們認為年比年其實會成長，因為比較基期偏弱。去年第一季很弱。以全年來看，我們認為煤炭已經開始觸底，這是第一點。

Point number two is if this weather continues the way it is, the utility stockpiles will continue to draw down. Those in the south are not yet at normal levels but they are continuing to drop. Those that are in the north are at normal levels. And with some business additions in all that we were able to pick up here in the first of the year, that was the whole point that I tried to make with you that you could expect, particularly because of some moves we have in our northern region, shorter lengths of hauls which in turn would produce a lower RPU.

第二點是，如果這樣的天氣持續下去，公用事業的庫存將會持續下降。南方地區的庫存尚未回到正常水位，但仍在持續下滑。北方地區的庫存則在正常水位。再加上我們在年初新增的一些業務——我想向你強調的重點是，你可以預期，特別是因為我們在北部地區有一些調整，運距縮短，進而會帶來較低的RPU（每單位收入）。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. And our next question comes from Mr. Brandon Oglenski from Barclays. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Barclays的Brandon Oglenski先生。您可以提問。

Yes, good morning everyone. Clarence, if I could follow up from Ken's question there.

是的，各位早安。Clarence，如果我可以延續Ken剛才的問題。

So you did mention the shorter length of haul impacting RPU, but can you also discuss -- in the past you highlighted that you renegotiated a significant portion of your domestic contracts this year and that along with, I think your commentary around export pricing was you're going to try to keep rates a little bit lower. So how should we think about how those new contracts along with the lower export environment is going to impact overall coal RPU heading forward?

你確實提到運距縮短會影響RPU，但你也能否談談——過去你曾強調今年你們重新談判了相當大一部分的國內合約；再加上我記得你對出口定價的評論是你們會嘗試把費率維持得稍微低一些。那麼，我們應該如何看待這些新合約，以及較疲弱的出口環境，對未來整體煤炭RPU的影響？

Well, without getting into the details of our contract discussions with our customers, because each one is different, what we've done is tried to focus on optimizing our bottom line and I feel pretty good about where we've ended up. I did mention to you that we will have as a result of some of those negotiations a shorter length of haul in our traffic this year and you can expect the export rates will remain low until the market itself changes, particularly the thermal market in Europe.

嗯，不深入討論我們與客戶之間的合約協商細節，因為每一份都不一樣，我們所做的是把重點放在最佳化我們的獲利底線，我對我們最後達成的結果感覺相當不錯。我也跟你提過，因為其中一些協商，今年我們的運距會縮短，你可以預期出口運價將維持在低檔，直到市場本身出現變化，特別是歐洲的動力煤市場。

So we feel like we're coming out of here pretty good. About a year ago we told you that about 25% of our utility contracts were under the fixed variable structure. Some of our customers have not chosen to go to the fixed variable but now about 35% of our utility business is under the fixed variable.

所以我們覺得我們這邊的結果相當不錯。大約一年前我們告訴各位，我們約有 25% 的公用事業合約採固定/變動（fixed variable）結構。有些客戶沒有選擇改採固定/變動，但現在我們約有 35% 的公用事業業務是在固定/變動架構之下。

All right. Thank you. And Fredrik, on the MS&O line, I realize you're lapping the real estate sales gains but it did seem a little bit higher on a sequential basis. Can you talk about some of the drivers of that increase and how we should be thinking about MS&O in 2014?

好的。謝謝。另外 Fredrik，關於 MS&O 這一行，我知道你們正在對比去年房地產出售收益的高基期，但按季來看似乎還是高了一些。你能談談推動這個增加的一些因素，以及我們應該如何看待 2014 年的 MS&O 嗎？

Sure. So sequentially from the third quarter, we did see a little bit of impact of higher train accidents in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

當然。就按季而言，相較第三季，我們確實看到第四季的列車事故較多，帶來了一些影響。

We also clearly saw the impact of volume and it was also one of those quarters where we saw a fair amount of SG&A expenses all moving in the wrong direction from bad debt and some other things. So lot of things went the wrong way and some impact from weather there as well, I would say. So sequentially it was a tough quarter.

我們也很明顯看到運量的影響，而且那一季也出現不少 SG&A 費用各項都往不利方向走的情況，包括壞帳以及其他一些因素。所以很多事情都往不好的方向發展，我也會說天氣也有一些影響。因此按季來看是個艱難的一季。

So I think about 2014, I would say in the first quarter, you know that overall MS&O is the hardest one to forecast. But if you start with last year's performance, which I think was around $510 million or so, you add $50 million of real estate gains that we don't have here in the first quarter 2014, add inflation and look at headcount which is roughly flat, maybe up 1% or so based on what we're seeing, and some weather impact, you -- probably a good starting point.

所以談到 2014 年，我會說第一季整體 MS&O 是最難預測的一項。但如果以去年的表現作為起點，我記得大約是 5.10 億美元左右，再加上我們在 2014 年第一季沒有的 5,000 萬美元房地產收益，加上通膨，並看一下人力編制大致持平、依我們所見可能增加約 1% 左右，以及一些天氣影響，你——這大概會是一個不錯的起點。

I don't think it's going to be -- at least not at this point -- I don't expect it to be as high as it was here in the fourth quarter, but it's clearly going to be higher than what you saw last year.

我不認為它會——至少目前——我不預期會像第四季那麼高，但很明顯會高於你去年看到的水準。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Chris Wetherbee with Citi. You may ask your question.

謝謝。我們下一個問題來自花旗的 Chris Wetherbee 先生。請提問。

Thanks. Good morning. Oscar, just on the resource levels as you turn the page into the first quarter we still had some weather kind of persist for a while. Should we expect the same types of resource levels to address the volume growth that Clarence is expecting in the first quarter? Just want to get a rough sense of how we're thinking about as we transition from 4Q into the first quarter.

謝謝。早安。Oscar，關於資源配置，進入第一季時天氣似乎仍持續了一段時間。為了因應 Clarence 預期第一季的運量成長，我們是否應該預期維持同樣類型的資源水準？我只是想大致了解一下，從第四季過渡到第一季時，我們的思考方式。

Yes, Chris. I think the way to think about it, and the way we have thought about it is we forecast most of this volume increase and have been preparing for it. Our pipeline of engineers and conductors is well in line. We've got roughly 1,000 people coming out over here.

是的，Chris。我認為可以這樣看，也是我們一直以來的看法：我們已經預測到大部分的運量增加，並且一直在為此做準備。我們的機車司機與列車長的人才管道非常到位。我們大約有 1,000 人即將到位。

Our peak period of GTMs is weeks 9 through 23, so we've been planning for this for some time. So the resources that we've raised -- primarily locomotives and the engineers and conductor work -- I think will just stay relatively static. I mean, we've got all the people in place. And we're waiting for -- and continue to deliver on this great business that's coming our way. So no real change.

我們 GTMs 的高峰期是第 9 週到第 23 週，所以我們已經規劃一段時間了。因此我們所提升的資源——主要是機車，以及機車司機與列車長的作業——我認為會維持相對穩定。我的意思是，我們人都已經就位了。我們在等待——並持續交付這些即將到來的優質業務。所以沒有什麼實質變化。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just taking a step back, thinking bigger picture, for the first half of 2014 when you have some real estate issues and some liquidated damages to overcome, do you have the ability, you think, to grow earnings power or grow earnings in the first half of the year?

好的。這很有幫助。再退一步、從更宏觀的角度來看，2014 年上半年你們有一些房地產相關問題以及需要克服的違約金（liquidated damages），你們認為有能力在上半年提升獲利能力或讓盈餘成長嗎？

Is that something we should be thinking about more sort of back half once you eclipse some of these headwinds that you have. I guess I just want to think about that -- sort of bigger picture when you think about the growth potential in context of double digits longer term, once coal stabilizes.

還是說我們應該更多把焦點放在下半年，等你們跨過這些逆風之後？我想從更大的圖像來理解——當煤炭穩定後，放在長期雙位數成長的脈絡下，你們如何看待成長潛力。

Yes, so let me just answer your question in terms of earnings for 2014 first. And we laid out our longer term guidance in terms of the fact that we still have visibility into the low end of the guidance, we're going to need some help from coal.

是的，所以我先就 2014 年的盈餘來回答你的問題。我們也已經提出較長期的指引：我們仍然看得到達到指引區間下緣的能見度，但我們需要煤炭給一些助力。

But in 2014 specifically, I would say that we do expect earnings growth in 2014 but it is going to be predominantly in the second half of the year. I would say the first half of the year, because of the headwinds with real estate gains and also cycling the full effect of the lower prices we have in export coal business, I would say the best place to think about the first half is probably earnings to be flat to slightly down. But for the full year, we do expect earnings to grow.

但就 2014 年而言，我會說我們確實預期 2014 年盈餘會成長，但主要會發生在下半年。我會說上半年，因為房地產收益的逆風，以及出口煤業務較低價格的完整影響進入比較基期，我認為上半年最好的看法可能是盈餘持平到小幅下滑。但就全年而言，我們確實預期盈餘會成長。

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you very much for the time.

好的。這非常有幫助。非常感謝你們撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ms. Allison Landry with Credit Suisse. You may ask your question.

謝謝。我們下一個問題來自瑞信的 Allison Landry 女士。請提問。

Thanks. Good morning.

謝謝。早安。

Following up on that last question, I wanted to ask about your confidence level for full-year domestic coal to be flat and specifically if the key embedded assumption is that stockpiles normalize at some point in the year, end of summer or by the close of the year. Really what I'm getting at is, is the stockpile situation a potential swing factor that could compromise your ability to grow earnings for the full year?

延續上一個問題，我想問你們對全年國內煤炭持平的信心程度，特別是其中關鍵的內含假設是否為庫存會在今年某個時間點回到正常水準，例如夏末或年底前。我真正想問的是：庫存狀況是否可能成為一個擺盪因素，進而影響你們全年盈餘成長的能力？

Allison, this is Clarence. I don't think so at all. I think that those stockpiles will be normalized here and coal will have bottomed out somewhere by the middle of the year and I expect if anything there's more positive to it than downside.

Allison，我是 Clarence。我完全不這麼認為。我認為這些庫存會在這段時間內回到正常水準，煤炭也會在年中左右觸底；而且如果有什麼影響，我預期偏正面多於偏負面。

Okay.

好的。

The risk, if you saw any risk, would be in the export market. Right?

如果你要說有任何風險，那會是在出口市場。對嗎？

That's right.

沒錯。

Okay. So below normal summer, that shouldn't have any impact, if that was to occur?

好的。所以如果夏季低於常態，那不應該有任何影響，假如真的發生的話？

Below normal summer, meaning a cooler summer?

夏季低於常態，是指夏天比較涼嗎？

Yes (laughter).

是的（笑聲）。

Yes, okay. It could, but I don't expect it to.

是的，好的。有可能會，但我不預期會。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up question, on -- I believe it was slide 12 -- there's a comment that says pricing to remain above rail inflation for the long term. Is there any inference here that this may not be the case for 2014?

好的。接著再追問一個問題，關於——我記得是第 12 張投影片——上面有一句話說長期而言定價將維持高於鐵路通膨。這裡是否暗示 2014 年可能不會如此？

No, there is no inference. That is the case for 2014.

不，沒有任何暗示。2014 年就是如此。

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

好的。很好。非常感謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Justin Yagerman with Deutsche Bank. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Justin Yagerman 先生。您可以提問。

Good morning, guys.

各位早安。

Good morning.

早安。

So it feels like to some extent -- I mean, if I go back several years, you were talking about pricing above inflation, when you guys had legacy and you had the ability to kind of command that kind of pricing in the coal industry. Now we're talking about pricing above inflation ex-coal and I realize that coal has been lower as a percent of revenue.

所以某種程度上感覺是——我的意思是，如果我回顧幾年前，你們談到的是定價要高於通膨，當時你們有既有優勢，也有能力在煤炭產業中某種程度上主導那樣的定價。現在我們談的是扣除煤炭後的定價高於通膨，而我也理解煤炭占營收的比重已經降低。

But I mean, in terms of just the absolute statement of we need to price above inflation, do you feel like you've lost control of that because of the change in the coal market? And is there a way to get that back in your other markets whereby you can make that statement independent of coal?

但我的意思是，就「我們需要把定價提高到高於通膨」這個絕對表述而言，你們是否覺得因為煤炭市場的變化而失去了對此的掌控？而在你們其他市場中，有沒有辦法把這種能力拿回來，讓你們可以在不受煤炭影響的情況下做出這樣的表述？

Well, I don't think that -- coal's going to depend on a multiple series of events here. The export side of the coal is going to appear -- going to be dealing with what is the demand both on the thermal side and the metallurgical side and it's a global traded commodity. So as it goes up we're going to go up with it in terms of pricing. As it goes down, we're going to go down to what we feel like is a floor level that we'll go down to in our pricing on that.

嗯，我不認為——煤炭將取決於一連串事件。煤炭的出口端將會——將需要面對動力煤與冶金煤兩端的需求，而它是一種全球交易的大宗商品。所以當它上漲時，我們在定價上也會跟著上調。當它下跌時，我們會下調到我們認為的底部水準，也就是我們在該項業務定價會下探到的地板價。

In the other markets, I think our record has been that we have consistently priced in the 3% plus area over the last few quarters here and I see no reason for that not to continue. In fact, if the economy does what some economists have been predicting just as recently as yesterday, with the release of the Beige Book saying that in most sectors of the United States the economy was growing modestly, then our pricing power comes back even stronger.

在其他市場方面，我認為我們的紀錄顯示，過去幾個季度我們的定價一直穩定在 3% 以上，我看不出有任何理由不會延續。事實上，如果經濟如同一些經濟學家最近甚至就在昨天所預測的那樣——隨著《褐皮書》發布指出美國多數產業的經濟呈現溫和成長——那麼我們的定價能力會變得更強。

And Justin, this is Michael. I'd like to add a little to that.

Justin，我是 Michael。我想再補充一點。

If I think about the value creation we did over the -- let's call it the 2004 to 2012 period, as you know same store sales was running at about 6.5% per year. Obviously in the last couple years it's been more in that 3% to 4% range and we knew that, the trees don't grow to the sky. We were not going to get 6.5% forever. But we think that 3% to 4% is very sustainable over time.

如果我回想我們在——姑且稱為 2004 到 2012 年期間——所創造的價值，如你所知，同店銷售每年約在 6.5% 左右。顯然過去幾年更多是在 3% 到 4% 的區間，而我們也知道，樹不會長到天上。我們不可能永遠維持 6.5%。但我們認為 3% 到 4% 長期而言是非常可持續的。

As I think about our business, we create a lot of value through pricing and through productivity. Going forward we still got to have above inflation pricing which we're very confident of. We have to have the productivity, which we're very confident of, and we need to add that third element, which is growth. And if you look, over the last four years we've grown in merchandise and intermodal $2.7 billion and it's been somewhat masked that we've been able to grow this because of that dramatic decline in coal.

就我們的業務而言，我們透過定價與生產力提升創造了大量價值。往前看，我們仍必須做到高於通膨的定價，對此我們非常有信心。我們必須有生產力提升，對此我們也非常有信心；同時我們需要加入第三個要素，也就是成長。而如果你看過去四年，我們在一般貨運（merchandise）與聯運（intermodal）成長了 27 億美元，但由於煤炭大幅下滑，這項成長在某種程度上被掩蓋了。

But as that coal stabilizes I think those will be the three value creators: growth in intermodal and merchandise, continued productivity and pricing above inflation.

但當煤炭趨於穩定時，我認為那三個價值創造者將會是：聯運與一般貨運的成長、持續的生產力提升，以及高於通膨的定價。

And I appreciate that. I'm not looking to minimize what you guys have done in the past or with the other pieces of the business. I guess what I'm trying to get at is that 3% to 4% in the last couple years, that's a 3% to 4% net of coal, if you look at it with coal in, it's significantly lower than that. So is there a way to talk about 3% to 4% if that's kind of the inflation hurdle all-in, even without coal changing?

我理解，也很感謝。我不是要淡化你們過去或在其他業務板塊所做的成果。我想問的是，過去幾年的 3% 到 4%，如果把煤炭排除，那是 3% 到 4%；但如果把煤炭納入，數字就明顯低很多。所以，如果整體（all-in）的通膨門檻是 3% 到 4%，即使煤炭不變，有沒有辦法仍然用 3% 到 4% 來談？

I understand what you're asking. And so if I look at the coal business, obviously it's been in a pretty dramatic transformation here and we've been adapting to that and obviously the pricing has been a little weaker especially in the export side. But as the coal stabilizes, the coal based utility plants that are there are going to be required to keep the lights on and I think our normal pricing within coal will resume as we go forward.

我明白你的問題。如果我看煤炭業務，顯然它正經歷相當劇烈的轉型，而我們也一直在因應；而且定價確實偏弱，尤其是在出口端。但當煤炭趨於穩定後，現有的燃煤公用事業電廠為了維持供電將仍然需要運轉，我認為我們在煤炭業務中的正常定價將會在未來恢復。

The export market is always going to be more volatile. We think it's volatile at a higher tonnage level but clearly that's the part that's going to be the most variable. So we're going to be up some in up times and down some in down times in the export, but the domestic, once we get this reset, we'll have what I call normal pricing power.

出口市場永遠會更具波動性。我們認為它是在較高的噸數水準上波動，但很明顯那一塊會是變動最大的一部分。因此在出口景氣好的時候我們會上去一些、景氣差的時候會下來一些；但國內市場一旦完成這次重置，我們就會回到我所稱的正常定價能力。

Okay, and just a quick housekeeping question. Clarence, how much of the domestic utility book is up for negotiation this year and how much do you think you'll be on fixed variable by the end of 2014?

好的，另外一個簡單的例行問題。Clarence，今年國內公用事業合約中有多少比例要重新談判？以及你認為到 2014 年底，固定變動（fixed variable）的比例會到多少？

There's around 25% of our utility contracts are up for renewal this year. It's a little difficult for me to speculate right now. We've got a couple of utilities that are looking at going to the fixed variable but are not yet quite sold on the concept.

大約有 25% 的公用事業合約今年到期續約。我現在有點難以推測。我們有幾家公用事業正在考慮改採固定變動，但對這個概念還沒有完全買單。

And those renewals are at the end of the year, right?

而那些續約是在年底，對嗎？

That's right.

沒錯。

Okay. Great. Thank you so much for the time.

好的。很棒。非常感謝你們撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Thomas Kim with Goldman Sachs. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Thomas Kim 先生。您可以提問。

Thanks very much. Just with regard to expectations for crew starts and active locomotives, can you give us a range or some guidance around those?

非常感謝。關於對乘務開工（crew starts）與在役機車（active locomotives）的預期，你們能否給我們一個區間或一些指引？

Again, this is Oscar, I think in the general same sort of trend that we've had our crew starts will be less than our volume in GTMs and that consistent pattern will I think continue. So no real change.

我再說一次，我是 Oscar。我認為整體來看，延續我們一直以來的趨勢，我們的乘務開工數會低於以 GTM（總噸英里）衡量的運量，而這個一致的模式我認為會持續。所以沒有什麼實質變化。

Okay. All right. Great. And then just going back to some of the questions with regard to the crude by rail, are you currently having discussions with shippers about tank car replacements and what's their response been so far? Thanks.

好的。了解。很好。另外回到先前關於鐵路運輸原油（crude by rail）的一些問題，你們目前是否正在與託運人討論油罐車（tank car）汰換？到目前為止他們的反應如何？謝謝。

Well, we have been having discussions with shippers about the -- some of the proposed regulations at the various agencies that the Department of Transportation has, but sort of along the lines that Michael and Oscar addressed earlier, it's much too early to speculate on what those regulations are going to be. So the shippers are in about the same mode that the rest of us is and that's to take and set and be cautious and let's see what the final outcome is.

我們確實一直在與託運人討論——交通部（Department of Transportation）旗下各機構所提出的一些擬議法規；但如同 Michael 和 Oscar 先前提到的，現在要推測那些法規最終會是什麼內容還太早。因此託運人基本上也和我們其他人一樣，採取觀望、謹慎的態度，先坐下來等，看看最終結果。

There are active dialogues going on with the customers, with the various agencies within the DOT and it takes some time to work these things through but there is active dialogue to make sure we continue to build on the great safety record we have in moving these products. Thomas?

我們與客戶、以及交通部（DOT）內的各個機構之間都有持續且積極的對話。這些事情需要一些時間才能理順，但確實有積極的溝通，以確保我們在運輸這些產品時能持續建立在我們優異的安全紀錄之上。Thomas？

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Tom Wadewitz with JPMorgan. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Tom Wadewitz 先生。您可以提問。

Why yes, good morning. I wanted to -- I guess first, Fredrik, what's the base you're looking at for the 20 -- I guess there are a bunch of moving parts but what's the 2013 base you're looking at for the earnings growth the next couple years?

是的，早安。我想——我想先問，Fredrik，你在看未來幾年獲利成長時，所採用的 2013 年基準是什麼？我想其中有很多變動因素，但你所看的 2013 年基準是什麼？

It's $1.83.

是 1.83 美元。

Okay, so you've got $1.83. And if I understand your comments right, you seem to imply that it would be difficult to get to the low end, so the 10% CAGR over two years, given I guess a little higher base than the coal headwind. I mean, is that correct?

好的，所以你這邊是 1.83 美元。如果我沒理解錯你的評論，你似乎在暗示要達到區間低端會比較困難，也就是兩年 10% 的 CAGR，考量到我猜基期稍高、且煤炭逆風更大。我的理解正確嗎？

Yes, it's consistent with what we said now for I guess over a quarter, which is that we're going to make some progress here in 2014 towards the long-term guidance that we have in place. It's clearly going to be more back-end loaded than we had originally estimated and we're going to need some help from coal in 2015 in order to be able to get there. That's our best view at this point.

是的，這與我們現在、我想超過一個季度以來所說的一致：我們會在 2014 年朝著既定的長期指引取得一些進展。很明顯地，這會比我們原先估計的更偏向後段發力，而且我們需要 2015 年煤炭方面給一些助力，才能達到那個目標。這是我們目前最好的判斷。

Okay. So and I think you're saying, well, one of the big things that's different is we're a little more negative on coal and coal's more of a headwind in 2014. When I look at that compared to Clarence's comments on utility, he sounds actually reasonably I don't know if constructive is an overstatement but it doesn't sound like utility's a big headwind this year.

好的。所以我想你是在說，嗯，其中一個最大的不同是我們對煤炭的看法更偏負面一些，而煤炭在 2014 年的逆風更大。我把這點拿來對照 Clarence 對公用事業的評論，他聽起來其實相當——我不知道用「建設性」會不會太過——但聽起來公用事業今年並不是很大的逆風。

So can you give me a little more color on how large the export headwind is that you're assuming that kind of prevents you from getting to that 10% growth CAGR. And I don't know if you want to say well, thermal tons are down a lot and met tons are stable or any kind of further perspective on how big that export headwind and what's within that would be helpful.

所以你能不能再多補充一些，你們假設的出口逆風到底有多大，才會讓你們無法達到那個 10% 成長的 CAGR？我不知道你是否願意說，例如動力煤噸數大幅下滑、冶金煤噸數持平之類的；任何進一步的觀點，關於出口逆風有多大、以及其中包含哪些因素，都會很有幫助。

Well, I mean, with the guidance that Clarence provided in his prepared remarks that we think in the mid-30 million ton range is what export coal is going to be for 2014, and we ended up 2013 with about 44 million tons, you have pretty significant impact just on the volume alone. Then on top of that, you're going to be cycling the price adjustments that we did throughout 2013 and especially in the third quarter.

嗯，我的意思是，依照 Clarence 在事先準備的發言中提供的指引，我們認為 2014 年出口煤大概會在 3,000 多萬噸的區間；而我們 2013 年最後大約是 4,400 萬噸，光是量的變化就會帶來相當顯著的影響。此外，你還會遇到我們在 2013 年、尤其是第三季所做的價格調整的比較基期效應。

So between the volume impact and the rate -- the pricing increase or price decrease that we did last year, you have a pretty significant headwind. Then as Clarence said, while we think volume for the year on the domestic side will be flat, we do expect the revenue per unit on the domestic side to be down in that low single digit number. So there will be significant headwind in our coal business for 2014.

所以在量的影響以及費率——也就是我們去年做的提價或降價——兩者之間，你會面臨相當顯著的逆風。另外如 Clarence 所說，雖然我們認為國內端全年量會持平，但我們確實預期國內端的單位收入會下滑，幅度大概是低個位數百分比。因此 2014 年我們的煤炭業務會有顯著逆風。

Now the good news is that if you ask me about our coal business today versus two months ago, because of what we're seeing on the weather side here over the last few weeks, we feel a little bit better about where things can end up. But right now the best visibility into -- is that we're going to need some help in 2015 to get to that low end of that guidance. We're going to need some help on the coal side.

不過好消息是，如果你問我今天的煤炭業務相較於兩個月前如何，因為過去幾週我們在天氣面看到的狀況，我們對最終可能的結果感覺稍微好一些。但就目前最清楚的能見度來看——我們需要 2015 年一些助力，才能達到那個指引區間的低端。我們需要煤炭端給一些幫助。

Just one further piece within that, Clarence. Is that move from 44 million tons down to mid-30 million tons, is that a sharp decline in the thermal tons or is that a decline in tonnage in both thermal and met?

Clarence，就這點再追問一個細節。從 4,400 萬噸降到 3,000 多萬噸的這個變化，是動力煤噸數大幅下滑，還是動力煤與冶金煤兩者的噸數都在下滑？

Most of the decline is in the thermal.

大部分的下滑是在動力煤。

Most in the thermal.

大部分在動力煤。

Some met, right?

冶金煤也有一些，對吧？

Some met. But most of it's in the thermal.

冶金煤有一些。但大部分是在動力煤。

Most of it's thermal. Okay. Thank you for the time.

大部分是動力煤。好的。謝謝你撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Matt Troy with Susquehanna. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Matt Troy 先生。請提問。

Thanks. I've got two questions for Clarence. You indicated earlier that you would -- and consistent with your message previously, that you would adjust pricing on export coal to keep US coal competitive in international markets to a point. I'm just curious, are we at that point, i.e. sequentially should rates per ton stabilize at this level and potentially go up with recovery in international coal? Or can we expect further down side if things remain weak in terms of per ton rates.

謝謝。我有兩個問題想請教 Clarence。你先前提到——也與你之前的訊息一致——你們會在一定程度上調整出口煤的定價，以維持美國煤在國際市場的競爭力。我只是好奇，我們現在是否已經到那個程度了，也就是說：就序列來看，每噸費率是否應該在這個水準趨於穩定，並且在國際煤價回升時有機會上升？或者如果每噸費率所處的環境仍然疲弱，我們是否還可能看到進一步下行？

From our standpoint we're at the bottom for our rate structure on export coal and as the market adjusts upward you can expect to see us move upward with it.

就我們的立場而言，出口煤的費率結構已經到底了；隨著市場往上調整，你可以預期我們也會跟著往上。

Okay. And the second question would be simply on the domestic piece, you talk about a more positive outlook, we can all certainly see that -- the end market fundamentals that set the bed for that. But just want to hear from you guys a reaffirmation or confirmation that you're not using price or your competition, you're not seeing a change in behavior there to move coal like in the international markets. You said in the past, yes, you will facilitate international moves with price. Just want to make sure domestically that you're not using price as a way to stoke volumes.

好的。第二個問題很簡單，關於國內這一塊：你談到更正面的展望，我們當然都看得到——支撐這點的終端市場基本面。但我想聽你們再確認一次：你們沒有用價格、或你們沒有看到競爭對手在行為上出現改變，像國際市場那樣用價格去推動煤炭流動。你過去說過，是的，你們會用價格來促成國際流向。我只是想確保在國內端，你們沒有把價格當作刺激量的方式。

We are not.

我們沒有。

That's all I needed to hear. Thank you.

這就是我想聽到的。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Jeff Kauffman with Buckingham Research. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Buckingham Research 的 Jeff Kauffman 先生。請提問。

Thank you very much. A question more for Fredrik. Fredrik have you had a chance to take a look how the pension assumptions changed with the interest rates and the market returns and give us an idea of what pension expense looks like 2014 versus 2013.

非常感謝。這個問題比較想問 Fredrik。Fredrik，你是否有機會看一下，隨著利率與市場報酬變動，退休金假設如何改變？也請你給我們一些概念，2014 年的退休金費用相較於 2013 年會是什麼樣子。

Yes, I think we're going to see some help in our pension expense in 2014 versus 2013. It's been a headwind for the last couple of years as we amortize the loss of what we saw in 2008 and 2009 but I think as we get into 2014, it will be a modest help to us. That's the good news.

是的，我認為 2014 年相較於 2013 年，我們的退休金費用會得到一些助益。過去幾年它一直是逆風，因為我們在攤銷 2008 年與 2009 年所看到的損失；但我認為進入 2014 年後，它會對我們有些小幅的幫助。這是好消息。

Okay. Could you quantify that at all or give us an idea how much --

好的。你能不能量化一下，或給我們一些概念，大概會是多少——

It will be somewhere around $20-plus million, but nothing significant.

大概會在 2,000 多萬美元左右，但不算顯著。

Okay. That's all I have. Thanks, guys.

好的。我就這些。謝謝各位。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Scott Group with Wolfe Research. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group 先生。請提問。

Hey, thanks, morning, guys. So I've got one for Clarence on coal and one on intermodal. So on the export thermal side, I think there's been some concern about some contracts that you signed a year or two years ago at a higher API2 and as that rolled over the volumes would see some pressure. At this point, based on your guidance for the 35 million tons, are we fully now cycled through that kind of old API2 price structure where at least going forward in 2015 we shouldn't have additional headwinds for that and we can think about potential growth in export coal?

嘿，謝謝，早安，各位。我有一個問題問 Clarence 關於煤炭，另一個關於聯運（intermodal）。在出口動力煤這邊，我想市場一直有些擔憂：你們在一兩年前以較高的 API2 簽了一些合約，等這些合約到期/展期後，量可能會承壓。以目前你們對 3,500 萬噸的指引來看，我們現在是否已經完全走過那種舊的 API2 價格結構？也就是至少展望 2015 年，我們不應該再有額外的逆風，並且可以開始思考出口煤的潛在成長？

Yes, we are fully cycled through that.

是的，我們已經完全走過那段了。

Okay. Great. And then on the intermodal side, so it's been a couple quarters now of some really nice growth and want to get your perspective, Clarence, on what do you think is finally clicking in the network that's allowing it, and then maybe just what's your pricing strategy there, because the volumes are really good but the yields were a little bit under pressure and how should we think about intermodal pricing?

好的。很好。那再問聯運這邊：已經連續幾個季度有相當不錯的成長；我想請你談談你的看法，Clarence，你覺得是網路中哪些因素終於開始到位、讓它得以實現？另外也想問你們的定價策略，因為量真的很好，但單位收益（yield）有一點承壓；我們應該如何看待聯運的定價？

Well first, on our intermodal pricing, as you're aware we're having to price strictly to what the truck market is and the big competition there. And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we did get price, but it was offset by the decline in the fuel surcharge during that period of time. In fact, our pricing was very solid in our intermodal this year.

首先，就我們的聯運定價而言，如你所知，我們必須嚴格依照卡車市場的行情以及那裡的主要競爭對手來定價。而且如我在事先準備的講稿中提到的，我們確實拿到了價格，但在那段期間被燃油附加費的下降所抵銷。事實上，我們今年在聯運業務的定價非常穩健。

I guess the second part of your question was what do we expect in terms of growth and can we continue and sustain it. My answer is yes. That's evident by the fact that, number one, we're expanding our northwest Ohio intermodal hub just a few years after it was opened.

我想你問題的第二部分是，我們對成長的預期是什麼，以及我們能否持續並維持這樣的成長。我的答案是可以。這從以下事實可見：第一，我們在西北俄亥俄的聯運樞紐在啟用僅僅幾年後就正在擴建。

Number two, we're opening up and completing this year a new terminal in Montreal which is a seven million person market that we haven't effectively penetrated. In April of this year we'll open up our new winter haven intermodal facility in south Florida. We've made an announcement for an expansion -- a new intermodal terminal in Pittsburgh. We just doubled the size of our Louisville intermodal terminal after only having been opened two years. So we have positive views about our intermodal business.

第二，我們今年將啟用並完成蒙特婁的一座新場站；那是一個有七百萬人口的市場，而我們過去並未有效滲透。今年四月，我們將在南佛羅里達開設新的 Winter Haven 聯運設施。我們也已宣布擴建——在匹茲堡新建一座聯運場站。路易維爾的聯運場站在啟用僅兩年後，我們剛把規模擴大了一倍。因此，我們對聯運業務抱持正面看法。

And finally, last year we started up a program that we called our beneficial owners program. We had a commercial name for it called Highway-to-Rail conversions, H2R, and it has been highly successful this year in growing our business and I just met with that group last week and I think they're going to be very successful in being able to address that 9 million truck load opportunity that Michael has referred to in the near future.

最後，去年我們啟動了一項我們稱為「受益貨主計畫」的專案。我們給它取了一個商業名稱，叫做「公路轉鐵路」(Highway-to-Rail conversions)，H2R；今年在帶動業務成長方面非常成功。我上週剛和那個團隊開會，我認為他們在不久的將來將能非常成功地切入 Michael 所提到的九百萬車次卡車貨載機會。

That's great color. Thanks, Clarence.

這些補充說明很有幫助。謝謝你，Clarence。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Jason Seidl with Cowen & Company. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Jason Seidl 先生。請提問。

Yes, good morning, guys. Clarence, sticking on the intermodal side, we've been hearing that the truck load market's tightening up a bit. As it tightens how should we think about the progression for your ability to start taking up some of the rates in the intermodal sector?

是的，各位早安。Clarence，延續聯運這一塊，我們聽到整車（truckload）市場正在稍微收緊。隨著市場收緊，我們應該如何看待你們在聯運領域開始上調費率的能力，其進展會是怎樣？

Ask me that last part again. Make sure I understood it.

你把最後那部分再問一次。我想確認我理解正確。

Sure. As the truck load market tightens how should we think about sort of the progression for your intermodal rates? In other words, what's sort of the lag effect on your ability to take pricing up in the intermodal sector.

當然。隨著整車市場收緊，我們應該如何看待你們聯運費率的變化進程？換句話說，你們在聯運領域提高定價能力的滯後效應大概是什麼？

As you see those truck load rates firm up more and more you'll see our rate start to follow. Lag time will not be as long as you'd think, actually, because a lot of the business is going to be on a transactional basis.

當你看到整車運價越來越堅挺時，你會看到我們的費率開始跟進。實際上，滯後時間不會像你想的那麼長，因為很多業務會以即期／交易型（transactional）的方式進行。

And what percent is on transactional?

那交易型的占比是多少？

I don't have a number off the top of my head because we have three different ways that we address those domestic markets.

我一時沒有具體數字，因為我們針對這些國內市場有三種不同的處理方式。

All right, well, you guys can get back to me offline on that.

好，那你們之後可以私下再回覆我。

And I guess the next question, on the crude to rail side obviously there's some changes coming on the car side which does impact you guys a little bit and there might be some increased safety regulations for you. I was just curious, on the insurance side, have you guys seen any increased cost on the insurance side for you, or have insurance companies sort of changed the way they deal with you, on, not only crude but any of the hazmats that you might haul?

我想下一個問題是關於原油鐵路運輸。顯然車輛端即將有一些變化，這會對你們有些影響，而且你們可能也會面臨更嚴格的安全法規。我想請教，在保險方面，你們是否看到保險成本上升？或者保險公司是否改變了與你們往來的方式——不僅是原油，還包括你們可能運送的任何危險品？

So far, no. We're going to go into a normal renewal cycle. And we try to, as we always do, educate our partners on the insurance side about the excellent safety record that we have and all the initiatives we have to make it even safer. So nothing at this point.

到目前為止，沒有。我們將進入正常的續保週期。而且我們一如既往，會向保險端的合作夥伴說明我們優異的安全紀錄，以及我們為了讓它更安全所採取的所有措施。所以目前沒有任何變化。

Well, thank you Fredrik, and gentlemen thank you for the time as always.

好的，謝謝你，Fredrik；各位先生也一如既往謝謝你們撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Ben Hartford with Baird. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Hartford 先生。請提問。

Hi, guys. This is Ken on for Ben. I had a question on the crude by rail. It's more along the lines of the business growth side. Looking to next year, I believe you were looking to add potentially daily train starts. Is there any sort of quantifiable amount of new business in terms of new facilities at refiners that are opened up?

嗨，各位好。我是 Ken，代 Ben 提問。我有一個關於原油鐵路運輸的問題。比較偏向業務成長面。展望明年，我相信你們原本希望可能增加到每日發車。就新設施（例如煉油廠端新開的設施）帶來的新業務而言，有沒有任何可量化的規模？

Well Ken, we moved -- as you probably know -- about 46,000 loads of crude in 2013, primarily to the eastern US refineries. And we had told you on some of the previous calls we were averaging between one and two trains a day. And that number two, the second train a day, tended to be more in the fourth quarter than throughout the year. And so in 2014, we expect to increase that crude about -- so you can use a number, around 50%, and we will move to two trains a day on a continuous basis over time and then we will start position ourself as more and more of the unloading points along the east coast are developed.

Ken，我們在 2013 年運送了——如你可能知道——大約 46,000 車次的原油，主要送往美國東部的煉油廠。而且我們在之前幾次電話會議中也提到，我們平均每天介於一到兩列車。另外，第二列車的情況在第四季比全年其他時間更常見。因此在 2014 年，我們預期原油運量將增加大約——你可以用一個數字，大約 50%；並且隨時間推進，我們會轉為穩定地每天兩列車，接著隨著東岸越來越多卸貨點的開發完成，我們也會開始進一步布局。

Okay. And then maybe as a follow-up, you had mentioned that inflation was projected at like 1.5%. What would that number look like in terms of dollars relative to the $120 million you guys had in 2013?

了解。那再追問一下，你提到通膨預估大約是 1.5%。若以金額來看，相對於你們 2013 年的 1.2 億美元，那會是什麼樣的數字？

Well, it's not a direct correlation. It is an estimate of what the industry's incurring, is what that RCAP is supposed to be. I would say that -- so we had about $120 million of inflation at CSX in 2013.

這不是直接的對應關係。那是對整個產業正在承擔成本的估計，也就是 RCAP 應該反映的內容。我會說——我們在 2013 年於 CSX 的通膨成本大約是 1.2 億美元。

And I would say we're probably going to see a similar amount in 2014. We continue to benefit from both lower than normal health and welfare costs because some of the cost sharing arrangements we have and also the demographic changes and we're also seeing some relatively muted materials inflation this point. So I would say that inflation assumptions for 2014 should be pretty similar to what we saw in 2013.

我會說我們在 2014 年可能也會看到相近的金額。我們持續受惠於低於常態的健康與福利成本，原因包括我們的一些成本分攤安排以及人口結構的變化；同時我們也看到目前材料通膨相對溫和。因此我會說，2014 年的通膨假設應該會與 2013 年所見相當接近。

Okay. Thanks, guys.

好的。謝謝各位。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ms. Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne 女士。請提問。

Thanks very much and good morning. I wanted to ask a question on the domestic utility coal business. We've talked many times on these calls about how cheap natural gas prices have in effect pulled forward some of the demand destruction that you were expecting due to regulation by 2015. I wonder if it's possible for you to comment on how your coal shipments to those plants that you expect to close by 2015 compare to your coal shipments to all other plants in 2013.

非常感謝，早安。我想問一個關於國內公用事業用煤業務的問題。我們在這些電話會議上多次談到，天然氣價格如此低廉，實際上把你們原本預期因法規到 2015 年才會出現的部分需求破壞提前發生了。我想請你們評論一下：你們對那些預計在 2015 年前關閉的電廠的煤炭出貨量，與你們 2013 年對所有其他電廠的煤炭出貨量相比，情況如何？

Well, the plants that we have and our customers have identified as closing in 2015, those shipments have been curtailed. Most cases fairly dramatically, although one of those plants in particular and I unfortunately can't release the name of it has actually taken some in-bound coal during the last 30 days because of this weather related activity that's been going on. But nothing -- we haven't seen anything in the regard to the other plants materially as your question would imply.

嗯，我們以及我們的客戶已辨識出將在 2015 年關閉的那些電廠，對其出貨量已經被縮減。多數情況下縮減幅度相當大；不過其中有一座電廠——很遺憾我不能透露名稱——在過去 30 天因為目前這些與天氣相關的活動，實際上又接收了一些進廠煤。但除此之外——就你問題所暗示的那樣——我們沒有看到其他電廠有任何實質性的變化。

So you're saying most of the decline we're going to see from these plants shutting down because of the environmental regs and gas prices has occurred (multiple speakers) --

所以你的意思是，因為環保法規與天然氣價格導致這些電廠關閉而造成的大部分下滑都已經發生了（多位發言者）--

-- has happened.

-- 已經發生了。

Yes, so I guess another way of asking would be to say where do those volumes look like relative to 2008? I mean are they almost down by 100%?

是的，所以我想換個方式問，就是這些運量相較於2008年看起來如何？我的意思是，它們是不是幾乎下滑了100%？

I think versus domestic coal, so utility companies, versus 2008 will be down 45%, roughly.

我認為相較於國內煤炭，也就是公用事業公司，相較於2008年大約會下滑45%。

Yes. And I think just, if we think about the plant that are about to close between now and kind of 2016, 2017, 2018, our best estimate that we've shared with publicly before is that there's about 7 million tons or so that is left to come out over the next five years and it's not that it's going to come out all in 2015, it's going to be spread out between 2015, 2016 and 2017.

是的。而且我想，如果我們想想那些即將在現在到大約2016、2017、2018年間關閉的電廠，我們先前也曾對外公開分享過我們的最佳估計：未來五年大約還會再退出約700萬噸左右；而且不會在2015年一次全部退出，而是會分散在2015、2016與2017年。

And so that's about, little less than 10%, about 10% of our overall utility portfolio where we -- they still expect to see. So it is down significantly and it's a relatively small portion left to come out that 10% which can easily be overshadowed by some sort of just normal demand recovery and getting through this inventory overhang we have seen here over the last few years.

因此那大約是——略低於10%，約占我們整體公用事業組合的10%，也就是我們——仍預期會看到的部分。所以它已經大幅下滑，而剩下要退出的相對只是那10%的一小部分；這很容易被一些正常的需求復甦，以及消化我們過去幾年看到的庫存過剩所掩蓋。

And the last part is, is -- and we just saw this in the weather related part, those plants that are not scheduled to be closed that have already been scrubbed are actually run harder and for longer periods of time. So the total burn of coal is virtually neutral.

最後一點是——我們剛才在天氣相關的部分也看到，那些未排程關閉、且已經加裝洗滌設備（scrubbed）的電廠，實際上會以更高負載、運轉更長時間。因此煤炭總燃燒量幾乎是中性的。

Okay. That's very helpful. That's all my questions.

好的。這非常有幫助。我沒有其他問題了。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. David Vernon with Bernstein. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Bernstein的David Vernon先生。您可以提問。

Thanks for taking the question. Fredrik, could you maybe in your closing comments about coal, you mentioned the revenue headwind. Is there a good percentage number rather than getting in the nitty gritty on export drum roll or whatever? A good percentage revenue decline that we should be expecting in the coal business in 2014.

謝謝讓我提問。Fredrik，你在關於煤炭的結語中提到營收逆風。能不能給一個比較好的百分比數字，而不是深入到出口的細節或其他？我們在2014年煤炭業務應該預期的營收下滑幅度，大概是多少百分比？

I think I gave you the components similar to what we've done in the past, which is that -- and we always separate out domestic versus export because it's just hard to predict export business. Domestic side we said flat volume. We have said on the export side coming from 44 million tons down to about 35 million tons. Continue to cycling the impact of the price reductions we took in 2013. And so overall we think that the RPU in 2014 for our coal business as a whole will be down in that low single digit area.

我想我已經把構成因素告訴你了，跟我們過去的做法類似，也就是——我們一向把國內與出口分開，因為出口業務很難預測。國內部分我們說運量持平。出口部分我們說會從4,400萬噸降到大約3,500萬噸。並且持續反映我們在2013年所做的降價影響。因此整體而言，我們認為2014年我們整體煤炭業務的RPU將在低個位數百分比的區間下滑。

Thank you. That's very helpful.

謝謝。這非常有幫助。

And then maybe just as a follow-up, I think Clarence as you guys look at growing the intermodal business, one of the things that you guys have been doing, at least from what I've heard in the industry, is offering a number of new services out of the northwest Ohio terminal. Is there a way that you can frame that in terms of the number of new service offerings that you guys have brought to market and then how many more lanes or blank squares in the service grid there are for you to continue to expand the product?

接著可能追問一下，我想Clarence，當你們著眼於成長聯運（intermodal）業務時，據我在業界聽到的，你們一直在西北俄亥俄（northwest Ohio）場站推出多項新服務。你能否用你們已推向市場的新服務數量來框架說明，然後再談談服務網格（service grid）中還有多少路線或空白格子可讓你們持續擴充產品？

I don't know the exact number but it's a double-digit number of OD pairs that we've created out of northwest Ohio. We've also added services out of Atlanta into the Northeast. So it's a significant number.

我不知道確切數字，但我們在西北俄亥俄新增的OD配對數量是兩位數。我們也新增了從亞特蘭大到東北部的服務。所以數量相當可觀。

All right. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

好。非常感謝。感激不盡。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. John Larkin with Stifel Nicolaus. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Stifel Nicolaus的John Larkin先生。您可以提問。

Had a question, Clarence, was wondering if you could clarify a little bit this push to convert the utility coal contracts over to the fixed and variable cost model. How does that benefit the utility and how does that benefit CSX? It seems like that fixed component is really much like the guaranteed minimum that would trigger the liquidated damages.

我有個問題，Clarence，想請你再釐清一下你們推動把公用事業煤炭合約轉成固定與變動成本模型這件事。這對公用事業有什麼好處？對CSX又有什麼好處？看起來固定部分很像是會觸發約定損害賠償（liquidated damages）的保證最低量。

It is very -- it's exactly what it is on the fixed component. It -- in fact eliminates liquidated damages. One of the other advantages that it has to the utilities is that the price of the coal itself on the variable part goes into the equation for the dispatch cycle of which type of generation will be dispatched.

確實——固定部分就是如此。它——事實上會取消約定損害賠償。對公用事業的另一個優點是，變動部分中煤炭本身的價格會納入方程式，用於調度循環（dispatch cycle），也就是決定要調度哪一種發電方式。

Okay. So this is in theory a win-win proposition for both the utility and for CSX?

好的。所以理論上，這對公用事業與CSX都是雙贏？

I think so, yes.

我想是的。

Okay. And then just wanted to ask maybe a question of Oscar, if he's still on the line, related to the very impressive annual productivity target that seems to be down a little bit in 2014 relative to what was actually accomplished in 2013, but is this the type of target that is going to be available in 2015, 2016 and 2017 or is the law of diminishing returns going to come into play here at some point?

好的。另外想問Oscar一個問題，如果他還在線上的話，關於你們令人印象深刻的年度生產力目標：相較於2013年實際達成的水準，2014年的目標似乎略低一些；但這種目標在2015、2016與2017年也會持續可達成嗎？還是某個時點會出現邊際效益遞減（law of diminishing returns）？

That's a constant question we've asked ourselves for a while and I think one of the reasons we exhibited the chart that we did is that there is a good staying power and a history to it. We have a very great cross-functional team that's focussed on those outer years and every time they get together and they come up with ideas for the near-term as well as the long-term, it appears to be a very positive outlook. Without giving too much guidance, I think for the very near future, the next few years, I think we'll continue that rate.

這是我們問了自己一段時間的固定問題；我想我們展示那張圖表的原因之一，就是它具有相當的持續性與歷史紀錄。我們有一個非常優秀的跨職能團隊，專注於那些較遠年度；每次他們聚在一起，提出短期與長期的想法時，展望看起來都非常正面。在不提供太多指引的前提下，我認為在非常接近的未來、接下來幾年，我們會維持那樣的速度。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you. Next question comes from Mr. Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自RBC Capital Markets的Walter Spracklin先生。您可以提問。

Thank you very much. My question is going to come back to the guidance run rate. And Eric, you mentioned that you needed some help from coal but when I look at your base assumption when you provided a 10% to 15% earnings growth guidance you had indicated that your base assumption would be for flat coal.

非常感謝。我的問題要回到指引的運行速度（run rate）。Eric，你提到你需要煤炭給一些助力，但當我看你們提供10%到15%獲利成長指引時的基本假設，你們表示基本假設是煤炭持平。

When I look at what's evolved in 2013 and now into 2014 we're seeing volumes down in 2013 on the thermal side, flat in 2014, yields down in both years and export volume now trending down 20% for this year, with yields down as well. When I plug in kind of just as -- you tell me if this is a little too simplistic but when I plug in what I need to get in 2015 just to make it go back to your revenue, your flat revenue assumption, it's not a little bit of help from coal. It's quite a bit of help from coal. And am I looking at it a little too simplistically. If not, how realistic should we be looking at that 10% to 15% guidance as a realistically achievable number in 2015?

當我看2013年的發展以及現在進入2014年，我們看到2013年動力煤（thermal）運量下滑、2014年持平；兩年單位收益（yield）都下滑；而出口運量今年現在趨勢是下滑20%，單位收益也在下滑。當我把我在2015年需要達成的數字代入，只是為了回到你們營收持平的假設——你告訴我這是否過於簡化——看起來需要的不是煤炭給一點點助力。而是需要煤炭給相當大的助力。我是不是看得太簡化了？如果不是，那我們應該如何看待2015年10%到15%這個指引，作為一個現實可達成的數字？

I think that what we said is we're going to need some help from coal. I think there's a lot of other things that is going on in our business as Clarence outlined earlier that is very positive right now. If you look at his outlook table, a significant portion, the vast majority of our business are doing very well and we frankly have probably picked up a little bit more than we would have thought from that perspective.

我認為我們所說的是，我們將需要煤炭業務提供一些助力。我認為，正如 Clarence 先前概述的那樣，我們業務中還有許多其他正在發生的事情，目前都非常正面。如果你看他的展望表，我們業務中相當大的一部分——絕大多數——表現都非常好，而且坦白說，從這個角度來看，我們可能比原先預期多獲得了一點助益。

We continue to do very well on the productivity side. But clearly, we're going to need some help, but don't think we necessarily need to get back to all the way where we were in the first quarter of last year when we issued the guidance, because the rest of the business continues to be very vibrant and we continue to drive great productivity savings through Oscar's team. We will need some help.

我們在生產力方面仍然表現得非常好。但很明顯，我們將需要一些助力；不過我不認為我們一定需要回到去年第一季我們發布指引時的那個水準，因為其他業務仍然非常有活力，而且我們也持續透過 Oscar 的團隊推動很好的生產力節省。我們會需要一些助力。

So what I understand is your other businesses are helping out which is fantastic obviously. It gives me a little bit of concern, though, that there's a couple comments made where you indicated that the revenue growth from those solid -- the improvement in those businesses didn't go to the bottom line to the extent that you had expected. I think it was mentioned a couple times to the extent that you expected.

所以我理解的是，你們其他業務正在提供支撐，這當然很棒。不過我有點擔心的是，有幾個評論提到，你們那些穩健——那些業務改善所帶來的營收成長，並沒有如你們預期那樣在利潤端反映出來。我想你們提到過幾次「沒有達到你們預期的程度」。

I'm just curious as to whether there were factors that did not allow it to go to the bottom line in Q4 that might have an impact on your longer term guidance to the extent that those factors play out in the next -- over the next year or two. Using 2013 as your base, a little bit better than expected, I don't know if you would have had a good indication of your base at that point when you gave your guidance or maybe that was where it was, but is there anything that didn't lead you to get to your expected flow-through that might impact your guidance for the 10% to 15% out to 2015.

我只是好奇，是否有一些因素使得它在第四季無法如預期流入最終獲利（bottom line），而這些因素若在接下來——未來一兩年持續出現，可能會影響你們較長期的指引。以 2013 年作為基準，結果比預期好一些；我不確定你們在給出指引時是否已經能很好掌握當時的基礎，或許那就是當時的狀況。但是否有任何因素導致你們沒有達到預期的流入率（flow-through），而可能影響你們到 2015 年 10% 到 15% 的指引？

Throughout the fourth quarter including the third-quarter earnings call, we issued essentially pretty clear guidance I thought about the fourth quarter was going to be a pretty challenging quarter because we knew we were going to cycle both the incentive comp issue and the real estate and then you couple that with a casualty, another $16 million, you add $75 million of things that we don't expect long-term to have to deal with. If you adjust $137 million of revenue growth and take out that $75 million, you'll see that incremental margins for the quarter was right around 55% or something like that. And --

在整個第四季（包括第三季財報電話會議）期間，我們其實給出了我認為相當清楚的指引：第四季會是相當具挑戰的一季，因為我們知道會同時遇到獎酬激勵（incentive comp）問題與不動產（real estate）的比較基期影響；再加上一筆意外損失（casualty），又是 1,600 萬美元，合計約 7,500 萬美元的項目，我們預期長期不需要持續面對。如果你把 1.37 億美元的營收成長調整後扣除那 7,500 萬美元，你會看到本季的增量利潤率（incremental margins）大約在 55% 左右之類的水準。而——

Okay.

好的。

We know that we will have this headwind on the real estate side throughout the first half of next year but once we get through that, we are pretty confident that we're going to get back to more normal place where we've been in the past and where we would have been this quarter if it wasn't for this headwind.

我們知道在不動產方面，明年上半年我們仍會面臨這個逆風；但一旦度過之後，我們相當有信心能回到過去較正常的水準——也就是如果沒有這個逆風，本季本來也會呈現的水準。

Understood. That's helpful. Thank you very much.

了解。這很有幫助。非常感謝。

Thank you. Next question comes from Mr. Justin Long with Stephens. You may ask your question.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long 先生。您可以提問。

Thanks. And good morning. You gave your best guess for export coal volumes this year to be around 35 million tons. I was wondering if you could talk about how much of that business is under contract for this year versus what you expect to get in the spot market?

謝謝。早安。你們給出的今年出口煤炭運量最佳估計約為 3,500 萬噸。我想請你談談其中有多少業務是今年已簽約的，另外有多少是你們預期會在現貨市場取得的？

Absolutely. Nearly three-quarters of the business is contracted for the year.

當然可以。接近四分之三的業務已經簽約涵蓋全年。

Okay. That's helpful. The other one I had, on the equipment purchase front, I was wondering if you could comment on what car types are factored into your 2014 capital budget. Also specifically on coal, if you could comment on where you stand in terms of replacing that fleet.

好的。這很有幫助。我還有一個問題，關於設備採購方面，我想請你評論一下你們 2014 年資本預算中納入了哪些車種。另外特別針對煤炭，能否談談你們在替換那支車隊方面目前的進度？

So we are doing a lot of re-builds in 2014 especially on a portion of our coal fleet. That is a big driver. We're also purchasing some jumbo hoppers and some auto racks as well. In terms of our coal fleet, I think you might know this but on the utility side over 90% of our fleet is really owned by the utilities and not CSX.

所以我們在 2014 年會做很多翻修（re-builds），特別是針對我們煤炭車隊的一部分。這是一個很大的驅動因素。我們也會採購一些大型漏斗車（jumbo hoppers）以及一些汽車運輸車（auto racks）。就我們的煤炭車隊而言，我想你可能知道，在公用事業（utility）端，我們車隊中超過 90% 其實是由公用事業公司持有，而不是 CSX。

And that has obviously been a great impact and helped us significantly, the fact that as that market has declined, we haven't sat on a significant portion of excess capacity. So it's going to be, between rebuild on the coal car, it's going to be automotive racks and then also jumbo covered hoppers that we're going to spend most of the capital in 2014.

而這顯然帶來了很大的影響並大幅幫助了我們：當那個市場下滑時，我們並沒有背負大量的閒置產能。因此，2014 年我們的資本支出主要會用在煤車翻修、汽車運輸車，以及大型密閉式漏斗車（jumbo covered hoppers）上。

Great. That's helpful. I appreciate the time.

很好。這很有幫助。感謝你撥冗。

Thank you. Our final question comes from Mr. Keith Schoonmaker with Morningstar. You may ask your question.

謝謝。我們最後一個問題來自 Morningstar 的 Keith Schoonmaker 先生。您可以提問。

Thanks, Oscar, within your targeted efficiency gains do you expect main leverage to be the same as in 2013, namely fuel, TTM [per crude start], locomotive efficiency? And do these basically distill down to just building longer trains or is that too simplistic?

謝謝，Oscar，在你們鎖定的效率提升目標中，你們預期主要槓桿會和 2013 年一樣嗎？也就是燃料、TTM [per crude start]、機車效率？而這些基本上是否可歸結為只是把列車拉得更長，還是這樣說太過簡化？

As you can imagine, it is a very complicated business sometimes but it boils down to those basic same factors. There's a lot of technology involved and a lot of process change and of course a lot of great and hard work by people. Pretty much in the same lines.

如你所想，我們的業務有時非常複雜，但最終確實會回到那些相同的基本因素。其中牽涉很多技術，也有很多流程變革，當然還有同仁們大量且出色的努力與辛勤工作。大致上就是同樣的方向。

Those are the big levers. And one other quick one. I believe it was Clarence who mentioned that mix richer in Northern region coal would shorten the average length of haul. Could you share the domestic coal mix of Illinois and PRB during the quarter and perhaps your expectations for how this will influence length of haul maybe the next couple years.

那些是主要槓桿。另外再快速問一個。我相信是 Clarence 提到，北部地區煤炭占比提高會縮短平均運距。你能否分享本季國內煤炭中伊利諾盆地（Illinois）與 PRB 的組合占比，並談談你們預期這將如何影響未來幾年的運距？

The combination of our Illinois basin and PRB for this quarter was 49%. And a positive impact is that the more of the Illinois basin that replaces the central app, particularly into the Florida regions and the longer haul regions is actually we view a positive because it's a much longer length of haul and the revenue is higher on it.

本季我們伊利諾盆地與 PRB 的合計占比是 49%。而正面的影響在於：越多伊利諾盆地煤取代中阿帕拉契亞（central app）的煤，特別是運往佛羅里達地區以及那些較長運距的地區，我們其實視為正面，因為那是更長的運距，收入也更高。

Illinois basin is about 30%, which is similar to our central app tonnage, right.

伊利諾盆地大約是 30%，這和我們中阿帕拉契亞的噸數差不多，對吧。

Yes.

是的。

So it's equal to central app right now and growing.

所以它目前與中阿帕拉契亞相當，而且還在成長。

Thank you. Is the length of haul in PRB shorter than that?

謝謝。那 PRB 的運距比那個更短嗎？

It tends to be, because it comes across the Chicago interchange and mostly penetrates into our system as far east as --

通常是的，因為它經由芝加哥轉運（Chicago interchange）進來，並且大多只深入我們系統到最東邊——

New York.

紐約。

New York.

紐約。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you everyone for your interest and attendance and we'll see you next quarter.

感謝各位的關注與出席，我們下季見。

Operator. Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

接線員。謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的會議。您可以掛斷電話線。