CSX Corporation (CSX) 2013 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation second-quarter 2013 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During the call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2013 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。會議期間，所有與會者將以僅收聽模式參與。

For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation. Sir, you may begin.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Gwen, and good morning, everyone, and welcome again to CSX Corporation's second-quarter 2013 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we'll review this morning, along with our quarterly financial report, and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the investor section. In addition, following the presentation, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on that same website.

謝謝你，Gwen，各位早安，也再次歡迎各位參加 CSX Corporation 2013 年第二季財報簡報。今天上午我們將回顧的簡報資料，連同我們的季度財務報告，以及安全與服務衡量指標，皆可在 CSX.com 網站的投資人專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，網路直播與 Podcast 的重播也將在同一網站提供。

Here representing CSX Corporation this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer.

今天上午代表 CSX Corporation 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。

Now, before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements, as well as risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露事項。該揭露說明前瞻性陳述，以及可能導致實際表現與這些陳述所預期結果出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With now 31 analysts covering CSX, I would ask, as a courtesy to everyone, to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question.

另外也提醒各位，在簡報結束時，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。目前共有 31 位分析師追蹤 CSX，為了顧及所有人，敬請將提問限制為一個主要問題與一個追問。

And with that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

那麼，接下來我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Well, thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Last evening, CSX reported second-quarter earnings per share of $0.52, a 6% increase from the same period last year. The financials benefited from overall revenue growth, excellent operating results, and a few items that Fredrik will outline later in the presentation. On the revenue side, we were encouraged by the solid growth across many of our markets, offsetting the ongoing challenges in Coal. Overall revenue was up slightly on 1% volume growth, combined with the team's ability to drive solid core pricing for the service value CSX is providing.

好的，謝謝你，David，各位早安。昨晚，CSX 公布第二季每股盈餘為 0.52 美元，較去年同期成長 6%。財務表現受惠於整體營收成長、優異的營運成果，以及 Fredrik 稍後在簡報中將說明的幾項因素。在營收方面，我們對多個市場的穩健成長感到鼓舞，這抵銷了煤炭業務持續面臨的挑戰。整體營收在運量成長 1% 的帶動下小幅上升，同時也反映團隊能就 CSX 所提供服務價值推動穩健的核心定價。

At the same time, we continued to deliver consistently high performances in safety, service and efficiency in the face of a broad range of economic and market conditions that continue to be dynamic. Those results helped increase the operating income to a record $963 million for the quarter, and improved the operating ratio to a record 68.6%. As you view the presentation today, you'll see a company that is capable of consistently delivering value by leveraging the diversity and value of its product offering, and maintaining a relentless focus on running an excellent railroad.

同時，面對持續變動的廣泛經濟與市場環境，我們仍持續在安全、服務與效率方面交出一貫的高水準表現。這些成果使本季營業利益提升至創紀錄的 9.63 億美元，並將營業比率改善至創紀錄的 68.6%。各位在今天的簡報中將看到，公司能透過發揮產品組合的多元性與價值，並持續專注於卓越鐵路營運，穩定地創造價值。

Now I'll turn my presentation over to Clarence Gooden, who will provide a more in-depth analysis of the top line results and a forward outlook. Clarence?

接下來我把簡報交給 Clarence Gooden，他將更深入分析營收（top line）表現並提供前瞻展望。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning. Looking at the key economic indicators, they continue to point to slow, steady growth in the US economy. In June, the purchasing managers index registered a reading of 50.9, reflecting a modest expansion of US manufacturing. At the same time, the customers' inventory index registered a reading of 45, indicating respondents believe their inventories are still below normal levels. Looking at the right side of the chart, both GDP and IDP rates reflected modest expansion in the quarter. Although second-quarter growth estimates were below April expectations, forward projections still show slow, steady growth for the second half. Overall, demand across the diverse markets we serve was generally positive for the quarter, consistent with a broader economy.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。從主要經濟指標來看，仍指向美國經濟緩慢且穩健的成長。6 月採購經理人指數（PMI）為 50.9，反映美國製造業小幅擴張。同時，客戶庫存指數為 45，顯示受訪者認為其庫存仍低於正常水準。再看圖表右側，本季 GDP 與 IDP 成長率皆呈現溫和擴張。儘管第二季成長預估低於 4 月的預期，但前瞻預測仍顯示下半年將維持緩慢且穩健的成長。整體而言，我們所服務的多元市場在本季需求普遍正向，與更廣泛的整體經濟一致。

Now let's take a look at the overall revenue. Total revenue increased $57 million year over year, approaching $3.1 billion in the quarter. Starting to the left, the combination of rate and mix was favorable by $32 million in the quarter. Here, core pricing gains and liquidated damages were partially offset by the unfavorable mix impact related to growth in Intermodal, and the decline in Coal. Moving to the right, volume had a favorable impact of $26 million in the quarter, as volume declines in Coal were more than offset by growth in the Merchandise and Intermodal markets. Finally, fuel recovery declined $1 million in the quarter.

接著我們來看整體營收。本季總營收年增 5,700 萬美元，接近 31 億美元。從左側開始，運價與組合（rate and mix）的合併影響在本季帶來 3,200 萬美元的正面貢獻。在此，核心定價提升與違約金（liquidated damages）的貢獻，部分被不利的組合影響所抵銷；該不利組合主要來自聯運（Intermodal）成長以及煤炭下滑。往右看，運量在本季帶來 2,600 萬美元的正面影響，因煤炭運量下滑已被商品（Merchandise）與聯運市場的成長所大幅抵銷。最後，燃油回收（fuel recovery）在本季減少 100 萬美元。

Now let's turn to pricing. Core pricing on a same-store sales basis remains solid across nearly all markets. Recall that same-store sales are identified as shipments with the same customer, commodity and car type, and the same origin and destination. These shipments represented nearly 80% of CSX's traffic base for the quarter.

接下來談定價。以同店銷售（same-store sales）基礎衡量的核心定價，在幾乎所有市場仍維持穩健。提醒各位，同店銷售係指同一客戶、同一商品與車種，且起訖點相同的運輸貨件。這些貨件在本季約占 CSX 運量基礎的近 80%。

Looking at the chart, overall pricing, shown as the blue bars, improved 2.3% in the quarter, reflecting less difficult comparisons in the export Coal market as we began to cycle rate reductions put in place during 2012. The gold bars, which exclude export Coal, show pricing gains of 4.1% in the quarter, consistent with the performance in prior periods. On either basis, pricing exceeded rail inflation, which was low this quarter. A strong service product provides a solid foundation for pricing above rail inflation, which supports reinvestment over the long term. We are confident in the value of our service product, and remain focused on driving profitable growth.

從圖表來看，以藍色長條表示的整體定價，本季改善 2.3%，反映出口煤炭市場的比較基期較不艱難，因我們開始進入 2012 年所實施的降價循環期。金色長條排除出口煤炭後，本季定價提升 4.1%，與先前期間的表現一致。不論採用哪一種基礎，定價皆高於本季偏低的鐵路通膨。強勁的服務產品為定價高於鐵路通膨提供穩固基礎，並支持長期再投資。我們對服務產品的價值充滿信心，並將持續專注於推動具獲利性的成長。

Let's turn to the next slide, and take a closer look at the volume. Total volume was up 1% in the quarter versus the same period last year, with increases across most of the broad sectors we serve. The Intermodal, Industrial and Construction sectors delivered solid growth in the quarter. High service levels helped drive growth in the domestic Intermodal market, and capture opportunities in both the growing domestic, and oil and gas industry, and the recovering construction markets. The Agricultural sector was flat, with growth in phosphates and fertilizer offset by the ongoing challenges in feed grain, soybeans and ethanol. The Coal story was mixed. Domestic volume was up 5% against a very weak second quarter last year, while export volume was down sharply.

我們看下一張投影片，更仔細地檢視運量。本季總運量較去年同期成長 1%，我們服務的大多數主要產業別皆呈現增加。聯運、工業與建築產業別在本季帶來穩健成長。高水準的服務表現推動國內聯運市場成長，並在成長中的國內市場、油氣產業，以及復甦中的建築市場中掌握機會。農業產業別持平，磷酸鹽與肥料的成長抵銷了飼料穀物、大豆與乙醇持續面臨的挑戰。煤炭的情況則較為分歧。國內運量在去年第二季極為疲弱的基期下成長 5%，而出口運量則大幅下滑。

Now let's look at the individual markets in more detail, and starting with Coal. Coal revenue declined 6% to $770 million. Domestic coal shipments benefited from higher natural gas prices on a year-over-year basis. Although domestic coal demand has stabilized, inventory levels at Southern utilities still remain high. Export coal volume declined 23% on soft demand for US thermal coal, particularly in Europe, where broader economic conditions remain weak. Total revenue per unit was flat, with strong domestic pricing gains offsetting lower export pricing.

現在我們更詳細地檢視各個市場，先從煤炭開始。煤炭營收下滑 6% 至 7.70 億美元。國內煤炭出貨受惠於天然氣價格以年對年比較上升。儘管國內煤炭需求已趨於穩定，但南部公用事業的庫存水位仍然偏高。由於美國動力煤需求疲弱，出口煤炭運量下滑 23%，尤其在歐洲，整體經濟狀況仍然疲弱。單位營收持平，國內強勁的定價提升抵銷了出口定價下滑。

Domestic pricing continues to benefit from the ongoing implementation of a utility contract structure that splits the conventional rate into two components -- a fixed quarterly charge that does not vary with volume, and a variable charge for each ton moved during the quarter. As a result, revenue per unit will vary more under this structure. During periods of low volume, the revenue per unit will be higher, as the fixed component will be spread across fewer units. Conversely, revenue per unit will decline during periods of high volume. That said, these contracts continue to reinforce our overall philosophy of securing inflation plus pricing, which supports reinvestment, and reflects the value of the service we are providing to our customers. Looking ahead, we expect third-quarter domestic volume to be relatively stable on a sequential basis, although down 5% to 10% for the quarter and the full year. At the same time, our best estimate for 2013 export coal volume remains about 40 million tons, with a more unfavorable demand environment in the second half of the year.

國內定價持續受惠於公用事業合約架構的持續推行，該架構將傳統費率拆分為兩個組成部分——不隨運量變動的固定季度費用，以及按季度每運送一噸收取的變動費用。因此，在此架構下，每單位收入的波動將更大。在低運量期間，由於固定部分分攤到較少的單位上，每單位收入將較高。相反地，在高運量期間，每單位收入將下降。即便如此，這些合約仍持續強化我們整體的理念：確保「通膨加成」的定價，支持再投資，並反映我們為客戶提供之服務的價值。展望未來，我們預期第三季國內運量在環比基礎上相對穩定，但就單季及全年而言將下降5%至10%。同時，我們對2013年出口煤運量的最佳估計仍約為4,000萬噸，且下半年需求環境將更為不利。

Next, let's look at Merchandise. Overall, Merchandise revenue increased 4% to nearly $1.8 billion. Chemicals was the key driver in the Industrial sector, growing 11% on strength in energy-related products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and frack sand. The agricultural sector was flat, as increased phosphate and fertilizer shipments offset the continued weakness in the feed grain, soybean and ethanol shipments. Regarding the Construction sector, building products and aggregates increased due to higher construction activity, and the continued recovery in the residential housing market. This was partially offset by lower military and machinery shipments.

接下來，我們來看商品（Merchandise）。整體而言，商品收入成長4%，接近18億美元。工業部門的主要驅動力是化學品，受能源相關產品（包括原油、液化石油氣與壓裂砂）走強帶動，成長11%。農業部門持平，因磷酸鹽與肥料出貨增加，抵銷了飼料穀物、大豆與乙醇出貨持續疲弱的影響。就建築部門而言，受建築活動增加及住宅房市持續復甦帶動，建材與骨材出貨增加。但部分被軍用品與機械出貨下降所抵銷。

Looking at the third quarter, growth is expected in the industrial sector, driven by ongoing opportunities in chemicals, particularly in commodities related to oil and gas drilling. The automotive market will also remain strong, although we continue cycling tough comparables. We expect the agricultural sector to recover, with the anticipated improvement in crop yields supporting growth in grain shipments, primarily for animal feed. Finally, we anticipate the steady recovery in the construction sector will drive growth in building products and aggregates.

就第三季而言，預期工業部門將成長，主要由化學品的持續機會帶動，特別是與油氣鑽探相關的大宗商品。汽車市場也將維持強勁，儘管我們仍在面對較具挑戰性的比較基期。我們預期農業部門將復甦，作物單產預期改善將支撐穀物出貨成長，主要用於動物飼料。最後，我們預期建築部門的穩健復甦將帶動建材與骨材出貨成長。

Moving to the next page, let's review Intermodal. Intermodal revenue increased 4% to $425 million. Record domestic volume was up 4%, driven by growth with our existing customers and highway-to-rail conversions. International volume grew less than 1%, as growth with existing customers and from new service offerings was partially offset by volume lost to a carrier port shift. Total Intermodal revenue per unit increased 2% on core pricing gains.

接著翻到下一頁，我們來回顧聯運（Intermodal）。聯運收入成長4%，至4.25億美元。國內運量創新高，成長4%，主要由既有客戶成長以及公路轉鐵路（highway-to-rail）轉換所帶動。國際運量成長不到1%，既有客戶成長與新服務方案帶來的增量，部分被因承運商港口轉移而流失的運量所抵銷。在核心定價提升的帶動下，聯運每單位收入成長2%。

Looking forward, we continue to make strategic investments in our Intermodal network to drive profitable growth. Over 90% of CSX's Intermodal volume currently operates in double-stacked lanes. That number will grow into the mid-90%s by the end of 2015, further improving efficiency and expanding capacity. New terminal construction is progressing as planned in Winter Haven, Florida and Montreal.

展望未來，我們將持續對聯運網路進行策略性投資，以推動獲利性成長。目前CSX超過90%的聯運運量在雙層堆疊（double-stacked）路線上運行。到2015年底，該比例將提升至90%中段（mid-90%s），進一步提升效率並擴充產能。佛羅里達州溫特黑文（Winter Haven）與蒙特婁的新場站建設正按計畫推進。

In addition, expansions are under way in Atlanta and Louisville, and an expansion of our Northwest Ohio hub is already in the planning stages. These investments will expand our network reach, increase capacity, and will allow the introduction of new service offerings that support profitable growth. At the same time, we continue to generate growth opportunities through our highway-to-rail, or H2R, initiative. We are working jointly with our channel partners to market the compelling value of Intermodal rail transportation to targeted customers, and further tap into an estimated 9 million truckload opportunity, which aligns very well with our network.

此外，亞特蘭大與路易維爾的擴建正在進行中，而我們在俄亥俄州西北部樞紐的擴建也已進入規劃階段。這些投資將擴大我們的網路覆蓋、提升產能，並可導入支持獲利性成長的新服務方案。同時，我們也持續透過公路轉鐵路（H2R）計畫創造成長機會。我們正與通路夥伴共同合作，向目標客戶行銷聯運鐵路運輸的強大價值主張，並進一步切入估計約900萬車次的卡車運輸機會，這與我們的網路非常契合。

Let's turn to the outlook for the third quarter. For the third quarter, we expect stable to favorable conditions for 83% of our markets, and the overall volume is neutral to slightly positive. The outlook for agricultural products is favorable, with the anticipated improvement in crop yield supporting growth in grain shipments. Automobile and light-truck production will remain strong, with annual production estimates now exceeding 16 million vehicles. We expect growth in chemicals, as we continue to capture opportunities created by the expanding domestic oil and gas industry. Intermodal growth will continue as our strategic network investments and service reliability support the highway-to-rail conversions. Domestic coal volumes is expected to be stable sequentially, but down 5% to 10% for the third quarter and the full year. Finally, export coal volume will again be lower on softer demand for US thermal coals.

接著我們來看第三季展望。第三季，我們預期83%的市場將呈現穩定至有利的狀況，整體運量為中性至略為正向。農產品展望有利，作物單產預期改善將支撐穀物出貨成長。汽車與輕型卡車產量將維持強勁，年度產量預估目前已超過1,600萬輛。我們預期化學品將成長，因我們持續掌握國內油氣產業擴張所帶來的機會。隨著我們的策略性網路投資與服務可靠度支撐公路轉鐵路的轉換，聯運成長將持續。國內煤炭運量預期環比將保持穩定，但第三季及全年將下降5%至10%。最後，由於美國動力煤需求轉弱，出口煤運量將再度下滑。

Thank you, and I'll now turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

謝謝，接下來我將把簡報交給Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運結果。

Thank you, Clarence, and good morning, everybody. As is customary, I discuss safety results at the beginning of each of these operations review to make it clear that safety is our first and foremost priority. Unfortunately, I need to make everyone aware of the tragic loss of two CSX employees this past week in separate incidents. The overriding focus of our safety program is to avoid such catastrophic events, and we are rapidly completing our investigation of how these events unfolded, and the lessons learned will promptly be applied to our operation. We want the colleagues, friends, family of these two gentlemen who might be listening to this call this morning to know that our hearts go out to them. At CSX, we are all passionate about sending each person home safely every day, and we must never, ever lose sight of this goal.

謝謝你，Clarence，各位早安。依照慣例，我會在每次營運回顧的一開始先談安全成果，以清楚表明安全是我們最優先、也是最重要的事項。很遺憾地，我必須讓大家知道，過去一週CSX有兩位員工在不同事件中不幸罹難。我們安全計畫的首要重點就是避免此類重大事故；我們正迅速完成對事件經過的調查，並將把汲取的教訓立即應用到營運中。我們希望今天早上可能正在收聽本次電話會議的兩位同仁之同事、朋友與家人知道，我們與你們同感悲痛。在CSX，我們所有人都熱切投入於每天讓每一位同仁平安回家，而我們絕不能、絕不能忽視這個目標。

Now, if you'll allow me, let me review the Company's overall safety results on this slide 15. The chart on the left shows FRA personal injury rate, which was 0.93 for the quarter. This rate is higher than the prior period, and underscores our need to remain focused on safety each and every day. The chart on the right shows the FRA train accident rate, which improved by 7% to 1.81, and reflects our continued commitment to accident reduction. We will remain diligent in our efforts to keeping our employees and the communities where we work in safe.

現在，若各位允許，我來在第15頁投影片回顧公司整體的安全成果。左側圖表顯示FRA人身傷害率，本季為0.93。此比率高於前一期間，凸顯我們必須每天都持續專注於安全。右側圖表顯示FRA列車事故率，改善7%至1.81，反映我們持續致力於降低事故。我們將持續嚴謹投入，確保員工以及我們工作所在的社區安全無虞。

Now, let's turn to the next slide, and review the operating results for the quarter. Here on slide 16, you can see that on-time originations on the left, and on-time arrivals on the right. Both measures improved in the second quarter, with on-time originations at 91%, and on-time arrivals at 82%. Both measures are at record levels. I'm very pleased with these results that represent the culmination of hard work and dedication by all of CSX's 31,000 employees during a quite challenging second quarter. Furthermore, these results demonstrate our commitment to a shared purpose founded on Customer Service.

現在，讓我們看下一張投影片，回顧本季的營運結果。在第16頁投影片，左側可看到準時發車率（on-time originations），右側可看到準時到達率（on-time arrivals）。兩項指標在第二季皆有所改善：準時發車率為91%，準時到達率為82%。兩項指標皆創下歷史新高。我對這些成果感到非常滿意；在相當具挑戰性的第二季，這代表CSX 31,000名員工辛勤努力與投入的結晶。此外，這些成果也展現我們對以客戶服務為基礎之共同使命的承諾。

Let's look at the system performance on the next slide. Terminal dwell and velocity provide a picture of how efficiently cars and locomotives are moving across the network. CSX's continued momentum in these two measures illustrates the Company's ongoing commitment to improved asset utilization. When you look at the chart on the left, we drove a 6% improvement in terminal dwell for the quarter, to a record low 21.9 hours. This means cars are spending less time sitting in terminals, and thus more time in productive freight service. Velocity also showed improvement once again, up 3% to 23 miles per hour, with improvement across all three networks -- Coal, Merchandise and Intermodal. Strong on-time performance, dwell and velocity are a win-win, as our customers receive great service, and you, our investors, get an ever-improving ROA.

讓我們看看下一張投影片的系統績效。終端停留時間（terminal dwell）與速度（velocity）提供了一個視角，說明車輛與機車在整個網路中移動的效率。CSX在這兩項指標上持續的動能，展現公司對提升資產使用效率的持續承諾。從左側圖表來看，我們本季終端停留時間改善了6%，降至創紀錄低點21.9小時。這表示車輛在終端停放的時間更少，因此有更多時間投入具生產力的貨運服務。速度也再次改善，上升3%至每小時23英里，且三大網路——煤炭、一般貨運（Merchandise）與聯運（Intermodal）——皆有提升。準點表現、停留時間與速度的強勁表現是雙贏：客戶獲得優質服務，而各位投資人則獲得持續改善的資產報酬率（ROA）。

Now let me review with you the Company's improvement in operating efficiency on slide 18, which complements better service we are providing to our customers. Carloads were up 1% in the second quarter, and gross ton miles, the best measure of our true workload, was up nearly 2%. CSX absorbed this additional workload in the quarter with fewer resources on a year-over-year basis. Moving down the chart, you can see road-crew starts were nearly 3% lower than last year, as volume growth was largely incorporated into existing trains, and we improved our train crew productivity. In fact, both active locomotive count and total operations employment were lower by over 4% in the quarter, reflecting our improved operating environment.

接下來我在第18頁投影片與各位回顧公司營運效率的改善，這也與我們為客戶提供的更佳服務相輔相成。第二季車皮裝載量（carloads）年增1%，而總噸英里（gross ton miles）——衡量我們實際工作量的最佳指標——增加近2%。CSX在本季以較少資源（相較去年同期）吸收了這些額外工作量。往下看圖表可見，道班（road-crew）開工次數較去年下降近3%，因為量的成長多數被納入既有列車中，且我們提升了列車乘務生產力。事實上，本季在用機車數與營運總員工數皆較去年下降超過4%，反映我們營運環境的改善。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. Safety remains a primary focus for us, and we urge our employees every day to look out for and support one another in this endeavor. Service and customer satisfaction remain at high levels, and we delivered these great operating results by simultaneously improving our resource utilization. As such, we remain on track to deliver over $150 million in efficiency savings this year. CSX remains committed to providing flexible solutions for customers to enable sustainable growth, driving significant long-term value for our shareholders.

接著在下一張投影片做個總結。安全仍是我們的首要重點，我們每天都敦促員工在這項工作上彼此照應並相互支持。服務與客戶滿意度維持在高水準，而我們在提升資源使用效率的同時，也交出了優異的營運成果。因此，我們仍按計畫在今年實現超過1.5億美元的效率節省。CSX仍致力於為客戶提供具彈性的解決方案，以支持可持續成長，並為股東創造顯著的長期價值。

With that, let me turn to the presentation over to Fredrik to review the financials.

接下來，我把簡報交給Fredrik來回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar, and good morning, everyone. Looking at the top line, revenue increased 2% in the second quarter. Gains in Merchandise and Intermodal offset the declines in Coal. At the same time, other revenue, which included a $16 million increase in liquidated damages, also contributed to the year-over-year improvement. Expenses also increased 2%, as wage and material inflation, higher depreciation and volume-related costs more than offset savings from improved efficiency. Operating income was a record $963 million, up 2% versus the prior year.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。從營收端來看，第二季營收成長2%。一般貨運（Merchandise）與聯運（Intermodal）的成長抵銷了煤炭（Coal）的下滑。同時，其他收入（other revenue）——其中包含違約金（liquidated damages）增加1,600萬美元——也對年增改善有所貢獻。費用也增加2%，因薪資與材料通膨、折舊增加以及與運量相關的成本，超過了效率提升帶來的節省。營業利益創紀錄達9.63億美元，較去年成長2%。

Looking below the line, interest expense was $140 million, other income was $9 million, and income taxes were $297 million, reflecting $17 million or $0.02 per share of tax benefits in the quarter. While this resulted in an effective tax rate of 35.7% for the quarter, we continue to expect a tax rate of approximately 38% going forward. Overall, net earnings were $535 million, up 4% versus last year, and EPS was $0.52 per share, up 16%(sic-see presentation slides "6%") versus last year, reflecting growth in net earnings, and the impact of share repurchases.

在營業利益以下，利息費用為1.40億美元，其他收益為900萬美元，所得稅為2.97億美元，其中反映本季1,700萬美元（或每股0.02美元）的稅務利益。雖然這使本季有效稅率為35.7%，但我們仍預期未來稅率約為38%。整體而言，淨利為5.35億美元，較去年成長4%；每股盈餘（EPS）為0.52美元，較去年成長16%（原文如此—見簡報投影片「6%」），反映淨利成長以及庫藏股回購的影響。

As we turn to the next slide, let's briefly discuss how fuel lag impacted the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the effect of the lag in our fuel surcharge program was $4 million unfavorable. This reflects $13 million of positive in-quarter lag during the second quarter of 2013, versus $17 million of positive in-quarter lag for the same period last year. Based on the current forward curve, the fuel lag impact will be slightly favorable next quarter, primarily driven by the cycling of $16 million of unfavorable in-quarter lag in the third quarter of last year.

接著到下一張投影片，我們簡要說明燃油遞延（fuel lag）對本季的影響。以年對年來看，我們燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）機制的遞延效應帶來400萬美元的不利影響。這反映2013年第二季當季遞延為正1,300萬美元，而去年同期當季遞延為正1,700萬美元。依目前遠期曲線（forward curve）推估，下季燃油遞延影響將略為有利，主要因去年第三季有1,600萬美元不利的當季遞延將進入比較基期循環。

Turning to the next slide, let's review our expenses. Overall expenses increased 2% in the quarter. I will talk about the top three expense items in more detail over the next few slides, but let me briefly speak to the bottom two on this chart. Depreciation was up 5% to $276 million due to the increase in the net asset base. Going forward, we continue to expect depreciation to increase sequentially by a few million dollars each quarter, reflecting the ongoing investment in our Business. Lastly, equipment rent was down 6% to $96 million, driven by a reduction in locomotive leases and car hire expense.

接著到下一張投影片，我們回顧費用。整體費用本季增加2%。接下來幾張投影片我會更詳細說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談談圖表中最後兩項。折舊因淨資產基礎增加而上升5%至2.76億美元。展望未來，我們仍預期折舊將每季逐季增加數百萬美元，反映對本業的持續投資。最後，設備租金下降6%至9,600萬美元，主要由於機車租賃與車輛使用費（car hire）支出降低。

Now let's discuss labor and fringe in more detail. Labor and fringe expense increased 4%, or $33 million versus last year. Looking at the chart on the left, total headcount was down 3% versus last year, and up 1% sequentially, to support a seasonal increase in demand and hiring ahead of attrition. Moving to the table on the right, improved efficiencies more than offset higher workload in the quarter to drive $19 million in net efficiencies and volume cost savings. Moving down the table, incentive compensation expense was up $24 million versus last year, and labor inflation was up $18 million, with core wage inflation remaining below 4%. Rounding out the table, other costs were $10 million higher for items that are not expected to re-occur.

現在更詳細討論人事與附加福利（labor and fringe）。人事與附加福利費用較去年增加4%，或增加3,300萬美元。從左側圖表來看，總人數較去年下降3%，但較前一季增加1%，以支援季節性需求上升，並在自然流失（attrition）前提前招募。再看右側表格，效率改善在本季不僅抵銷了較高工作量，並帶來1,900萬美元的淨效率與運量成本節省。往下看表格，激勵薪酬費用較去年增加2,400萬美元，勞動成本通膨增加1,800萬美元，其中核心薪資通膨仍低於4%。表格最後，其他成本增加1,000萬美元，主要為預期不會再發生的項目。

Looking at the second half, headcount should be roughly flat on a sequential basis, although as we demonstrated over the past several quarters, we will continue to adjust our resources to reflect the current volume levels and drive efficiency. In addition, we expect labor inflation to continue to increase by $15 million to $20 million year over year for the remaining quarters, and the quarterly incentive compensation headwind to be similar to what we experienced in the second quarter.

展望下半年，人數在逐季基礎上應大致持平；不過如同過去幾季所示，我們將持續依目前運量水準調整資源配置並推動效率。此外，我們預期在剩餘季度中，勞動成本通膨將持續年增1,500萬至2,000萬美元，而每季激勵薪酬帶來的不利因素（headwind）將與第二季的情況相近。

Next, let's review MS&O expenses on slide 25. MS&O expense increased 2%, or $10 million versus last year, with the key drivers shown in the table on the right. Total real estate gains reduced MS&O expenses by $16 million, reflecting two items. The first one relates to a $22-million gain on rail assets and easements. The second one relates to SunRail gain, which was $14 million in the period, or $6 million unfavorable year over year. As a reminder, there will be no further material gains related to the SunRail transaction going forward. Moving down the table, inflation increased by $10 million, and train accidents and other increased by $16 million, primarily driven by costs related to a few derailments, including the accident in Rosedale, Maryland.

接下來，我們在第25頁投影片回顧MS&O費用。MS&O費用較去年增加2%，或增加1,000萬美元，主要驅動因素如右側表格所示。不動產相關總收益使MS&O費用減少1,600萬美元，反映兩項因素。第一項是鐵路資產與地役權（easements）帶來2,200萬美元收益。第二項是SunRail收益，本期為1,400萬美元，年對年則不利600萬美元。提醒各位，未來不會再有與SunRail交易相關的重大收益。往下看表格，通膨增加1,000萬美元，而列車事故及其他項目增加1,600萬美元，主要由少數出軌事件相關成本所致，其中包括馬里蘭州Rosedale的事故。

Moving to the next slide, let's discuss the impact of fuel. Total fuel costs decreased 3% or $13 million versus last year. Looking at the table to the right, fuel efficiency was favorable by $10 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year improvement in gallons consumed per gross ton mile. Next, as shown in the chart on the left, CSX average cost per gallon for locomotive fuel decreased $3 and -- decreased to $3.08, down 2% versus last year, driving a decrease of $7 million, as seen in the chart on the right. Rounding out the table, higher volume drove the $4 million increase in volume and other expenses, with gross ton miles up 2%.

接著到下一張投影片，我們討論燃油的影響。燃油總成本較去年下降3%，或減少1,300萬美元。從右側表格來看，燃油效率帶來1,000萬美元的有利影響，反映每總噸英里耗用加侖數年對年改善3%。接著，如左側圖表所示，CSX機車燃油每加侖平均成本下降至3.08美元，較去年下降2%，如右側圖表所示帶動成本減少700萬美元。最後，運量增加帶動運量及其他費用增加400萬美元，總噸英里成長2%。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. Through the first half, CSX has displayed the benefits of its diversified portfolio business by overcoming over $155 million of coal headwinds to achieve record financial results. This was achieved by ongoing strength in our Merchandise and Intermodal businesses, and helped by $46 million in year-over-year gains from real estate transactions, and nearly $50 million of year-over-year favorability related to liquidated damages.

現在讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。在上半年，CSX 透過克服超過 1.55 億美元的煤炭逆風，展現其多元化投資組合業務的優勢，並達成創紀錄的財務成果。這得益於我們商品（Merchandise）與聯運（Intermodal）業務的持續強勁表現，同時也受惠於房地產交易帶來的年增 4,600 萬美元收益，以及與違約金（liquidated damages）相關、接近 5,000 萬美元的年對年有利因素。

Looking to the second half, coal will continue to be a challenge, driven by depressed global coal environment and high domestic inventories. In addition, the year-over-year impact from real estate transactions, which was positive in the first half, will be negative by greater amount in the second half. At the same time, liquidated damages, which was positive in the first half, are expected to be flat to slightly down on a year-over-year basis in the second half. Taken all together, we're modifying our full-year earnings-per-share guidance slightly to now be roughly flat with 2012. Looking longer term, CSX will continue to focus on the same core elements that have driven the Company to record financial results. By focusing on safety, service, pricing above inflation, and profitable volume growth, CSX will emerge from this two-year transition to a new coal environment as an even stronger Company, and remains on track to sustain a high-60s operating ratio by 2015, and a mid-60s operating ratio longer term.

展望下半年，在全球煤炭環境低迷與國內庫存偏高的驅動下，煤炭仍將持續帶來挑戰。此外，房地產交易的年對年影響在上半年為正，但在下半年將轉為負面，且負面幅度更大。同時，違約金在上半年為正貢獻，預期在下半年以年對年基礎來看將持平至小幅下滑。綜合以上因素，我們將全年每股盈餘（EPS）指引小幅調整為：目前預估大致與 2012 年持平。從更長期來看，CSX 將持續聚焦於推動公司創紀錄財務成果的相同核心要素。透過聚焦安全、服務、定價高於通膨，以及具獲利性的運量成長，CSX 將在這兩年過渡至新煤炭環境的轉型期後，以更強健的姿態走出來，並仍朝著 2015 年維持高 60% 區間的營運比率（operating ratio）目標前進，長期則以中 60% 區間為目標。

With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把簡報交回給 Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Fredrik. It's been a pleasure to represent the great efforts of our 31,000 employees this morning. In addition to their positive results this past quarter, this team has delivered earnings growth in five of the past six years, and improved the operating ratio in each of the past six years. This in spite of the fact that CSX has lost over 50% of its domestic coal business over this period, and its Merchandise business is still down from pre-recession levels. As I alluded to in my opening remarks, this team is all about consistency and execution, making the right adjustments at the right time, and focusing on the areas where we know we can make a difference. When we do these things well, the Company stands the best chance of making the most of its opportunities, and meeting its challenges.

謝謝你，Fredrik。今天上午能代表我們 31,000 名員工的卓越努力發言，是我的榮幸。除了本季的正面成果之外，這個團隊在過去六年中有五年實現獲利成長，並且在過去六年每一年都改善了營運比率。即便在此期間 CSX 的國內煤炭業務流失超過 50%，而且我們的商品業務仍低於衰退前水準。如同我在開場致詞中提到的，這個團隊的核心在於一致性與執行力：在正確的時間做出正確的調整，並聚焦在我們知道能帶來改變的領域。當我們把這些事情做好，公司就最有機會充分把握機會並迎接挑戰。

At the same time, we are able to return substantial value to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, while also investing in our network, which holds great opportunity for well-documented reasons, including population growth, highway and trucking challenges, and the value of sustainability needs of our customers and the nation. In short, we like what we see. Relentless, consistent performance, and a promising future. Your Company is well-positioned to drive strong earnings growth and margin expansion long term, as the economy continues its slow recovery, and the energy environment evolves.

同時，我們也能透過股利與庫藏股回購為股東帶來可觀的價值回饋，並持續投資於我們的路網；基於多項眾所周知的原因，該路網蘊含重大機會，包括人口成長、公路與卡車運輸的挑戰，以及客戶與國家對永續需求的價值。簡而言之，我們對所見感到滿意。不懈且一致的表現，以及充滿希望的未來。隨著經濟持續緩慢復甦、能源環境演變，貴公司在長期推動強勁獲利成長與利潤率擴張方面具備良好定位。

With that, we'll be glad to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Ken Hoexter, Merrill Lynch.

Ken Hoexter，Merrill Lynch。

Just let me stick on Clarence with the export coal here. What gives you the confidence in the 40 million tons, just given that API2 is now at just over $86, Aussie coal in the low $100s. Just sounded you were a bit more negative on thermal coal. I thought you were always more positive with that, given contracts. And just surprised not a little bit more negative on met coal, given that's more than 50% of the export side. So if you could just run up on that.

我想就出口煤這塊再追問 Clarence 一下。考量到 API2 現在僅略高於 86 美元、澳洲煤在 100 美元出頭的低檔，你們對 4,000 萬噸的信心來源是什麼？聽起來你們對動力煤（thermal coal）稍微更偏負面一些。我原本以為基於合約因素，你們一向對這塊更偏正面。另外也有點意外，你們沒有對冶金煤（met coal）更悲觀一些，畢竟它占出口端超過 50%。能否請你說明一下？

Ken, most of the thermal coal that we'll have for the second half of the year was put under contract in prior periods. So it was either done earlier in this year, before the API2 index dropped so dramatically, or was done last year. So we feel pretty confident about being able to achieve those thermal numbers. And our met numbers, as you can already see, they've been declining on a sequential basis here from the first quarter to second quarter, and we expect that they are pretty much going to stabilize at the level that they are now for the rest of the year. There's a lot of the steel companies, particularly in Europe, can't afford to buy some of the high vol A. They're buying a lot of the high vol B coals, which CSX has been blessed with abundance of, and that gives us some confidence in that market.

Ken，我們下半年大部分的動力煤都已在先前期間簽訂合約。因此要嘛是在今年較早、API2 指數大幅下跌之前就已完成，要嘛是去年就已簽好。所以我們對達成那些動力煤數量相當有信心。至於冶金煤的數量，如你已看到的，從第一季到第二季已呈現逐季下滑，我們預期在今年剩餘時間大致會在目前水準附近趨於穩定。許多鋼鐵公司，特別是在歐洲，買不起部分高揮發份 A（high vol A）的煤種；他們正在購買大量高揮發份 B（high vol B）煤，而 CSX 恰好在這類煤種上供應充足，這也讓我們對該市場更有信心。

No, makes sense. I just thought you said in your presentation that you were more negative on thermal exports.

了解，合理。我只是以為你在簡報中提到，你們對動力煤出口更偏負面。

And going forward into 2014 time frame, we would be.

而展望 2014 年的時間框架，我們確實會更偏負面。

Okay.

好的。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，Barclays。

I wanted to address an issue that we've been hearing a little bit more about and seeing in results here between you and your peer. It seems that some of the pricing discipline that's created so much value for this industry might be -- I don't want to say slipping a little bit, but looks like your competitor might be trading a little bit more volume for price. Can you talk about how that's impacting outcomes for CSX, and what your view is going forward?

我想談一個我們最近聽到更多、也在你們與同業的結果之間看到的議題。看起來，為這個產業創造大量價值的某些定價紀律，可能——我不想說有點鬆動——但似乎你們的競爭對手可能在用價格換取更多運量。你能談談這對 CSX 的結果造成什麼影響，以及你對未來的看法嗎？

Well, where we've lost business, Brandon, we're confident that it wasn't because of our service issues. And consistent with our long-term strategy, we've rank -- we have remained committed here to pricing above rail inflation, which is imperative for us if we're to continue to invest in the business.

Brandon，就我們流失的業務而言，我們有信心那不是因為我們的服務問題。而且依循我們的長期策略，我們一直堅持定價高於鐵路通膨（rail inflation）；若要持續投資於業務，這對我們至關重要。

Right. But I guess it seems, especially in the Intermodal business, that there might be a little bit more aggressive behavior from the competitor. Is that creating problems for CSX, and do you view this as a longer-term issues that shareholders should be looking at?

了解。但我想看起來，特別是在聯運業務上，競爭對手可能有更具侵略性的行為。這是否正在為 CSX 帶來問題？你是否認為這是股東應該關注的較長期議題？

I certainly can't address what other competitors are doing. I would tell you that most of our conversions are highway-to-rail. We have a very positive program in our highway-to-rail program. We've added sales personnel in order to do that, with the beneficial cargo honors. We have a proprietary business model that we can use that will take the customer's book of business into consideration. Where that makes strategic fits for CSX, we think we offer a good product, and where it doesn't, we are very upfront with the customer in that regard.

我當然無法評論其他競爭對手在做什麼。我可以告訴你，我們大多數的轉換是從公路轉到鐵路（highway-to-rail）。我們的公路轉鐵路計畫非常正面。我們也增聘了銷售人員來推動這件事，並與貨主（beneficial cargo owners）合作。我們有一套專有的商業模式，可以把客戶的業務組合納入考量。在符合 CSX 策略契合度的地方，我們認為能提供良好的產品；若不符合，我們也會在這方面對客戶非常坦率。

The domestic grew 4% this year to record levels.

國內業務今年成長 4%，達到創紀錄水準。

Is that where it is?

是指那一塊嗎？

So we're continuing to see the growth, Brandon, in Intermodal.

所以我們仍持續看到聯運的成長，Brandon。

All right.

好。

Chris Wetherbee, Citi.

Chris Wetherbee，Citi。

This is a question back on the thermal export coal side. Clarence, just kind of curious about the pricing dynamic. Sounds like most of the business is under contract, so is it fair to assume that the pricing on that specific piece of the exports is going to remain relatively stable sequentially?

我想回到動力煤出口這邊的問題。Clarence，我有點好奇定價的變化。聽起來大部分業務都在合約之下，所以是否可以合理假設，出口中那一特定部分的定價在環比（sequentially）上會維持相對穩定？

I think, yes. I think you'll see it relatively stable sequentially.

我想，是的。我想你會看到它在環比上相對穩定。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up on the utility side. You mentioned that the Southern utility stockpiles were still above average. When you think about the overall utility complex that you serve in the US, how do you think about stockpiles in general?

好的。這很有幫助。接著可能再追問一下公用事業端。你提到南方公用事業的庫存仍高於平均水準。當你看待你們在美國所服務的整體公用事業體系時，你如何看待整體庫存狀況？

Stockpiles in the north are pretty much at normal levels. Stockpiles in the south are about where they were, and continued along that line. That's based on both the rate of burn, as well as the rate of resupply that the utilities are taking on an ongoing basis.

北方的庫存大致在正常水準。南方的庫存大約維持在原本的水位，並且持續沿著那個趨勢。這是基於燃燒消耗率，以及公用事業持續補給的速度兩者。

Okay. That's helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。

Allison Landry, Credit Suisse.

Allison Landry，瑞士信貸。

I was wondering if you could help us bridge the roughly flat earnings in 2013 with the 10% to 15% growth in 2014? And from a high level, are there specific business segments that you see getting materially better next year? And I guess, what's the risk to this guidance, based on the very weak fundamentals that's we're now seeing in the export coal markets?

我想請你幫我們銜接一下：2013 年獲利大致持平，如何對應到 2014 年 10% 到 15% 的成長？從較高層次來看，是否有特定業務部門你認為明年會明顯改善？另外，基於我們目前在出口煤市場看到的非常疲弱基本面，這份指引的風險是什麼？

I think what we've said is, the underlying -- the guidance are two basic macro assumptions, that coal overall will be flat as we get through 2013, both between domestic and export, we think it's going to be flat. And we've also said that underlying that guidance of 10% to 15% CAGR in earnings is going to be an economy that is going to grow, but albeit at the continuous modest pace. Clearly, export coal has gotten weaker, but inherent in the inventory overhang that we're dealing with on the domestic side, there's an opportunity perhaps for a pick-up as we get into 2014 as well. So I think overall, that's the macro assumptions that we have talked about, and I think as we stand here today, a quarter into the new guidance that we have talked about, we still feel very comfortable with that guidance for 2014 and 2015.

我想我們說過的是，這份指引背後—也就是指引所依據的兩個基本總體假設：第一，煤炭整體在 2013 年走完之前將持平；不論是國內或出口，我們認為都會持平。第二，我們也說過，支撐這個 10% 到 15% 獲利年複合成長率（CAGR）指引的前提，是經濟會成長，但會以持續且溫和的步調成長。很明顯，出口煤已經轉弱，但在我們國內端所面對的庫存過剩之下，隨著進入 2014 年，也可能出現回升的機會。所以我想整體而言，這就是我們談到的總體假設；而以今天的情況來看，在我們所談的新指引推出後已過了一季，我們對 2014 與 2015 年的這份指引仍然感到非常有信心。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, switching gears to crude by rail. Just given the recent narrowing in spreads, have your discussions with customers -- do you get the sense that the Eastern refineries have or will possibly switch back to coastal imports if the economics from the Bakken by rail don't necessarily work? Or is there generally a bias or a commitment to source domestically?

好的。再追問一下，換個話題談鐵路運輸原油。考量近期價差收斂，你們與客戶的討論中—你是否感覺東岸煉油廠已經或可能會改回沿海進口，若巴肯（Bakken）原油走鐵路的經濟性不一定成立？還是說整體上有偏好或承諾要以國內來源為主？

Allison, this is Clarence Gooden. When we talk to our customers as recently as this week about that, what we're -- they're telling us is, they don't see any significant need to change. Number one, they have commitments to the Bakken. Number two, a lot of the East Coast refineries get their oil off of the West African coast, and that is what's really the driving factor for these guys. So we don't see any change right now in their behaviors as a result of the narrowing of the spread.

Allison，我是 Clarence Gooden。我們最近就這件事（甚至就在本週）與客戶談時，他們告訴我們的是：他們看不出有任何顯著需要改變。第一，他們對巴肯已有承諾。第二，很多東岸煉油廠的原油來自西非沿岸，而那才是真正驅動這些客戶的因素。因此，因為價差收斂，我們目前看不到他們的行為有任何改變。

Fantastic.

太好了。

Justin Yagerman, Deutsche Bank.

Justin Yagerman，德意志銀行。

Couple questions on coal, shockingly enough. Where does Illinois basin go, over time, as a percentage of utility coal for you guys, from a sourcing standpoint? Where is it now? And how much of a positive RPU impact did that have in the quarter? Because when I look at RPU versus revenue per gross ton mile, it looks like maybe some of that longer haul had an influence on the RPU side for domestic utility.

關於煤炭有幾個問題，不出所料。從採購來源的角度來看，伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois basin）隨時間推移，會占你們公用事業煤炭的比重到什麼程度？目前是多少？而這一季它對 RPU 有多大的正面影響？因為我看 RPU 相對於每總噸英里收入（revenue per gross ton mile），似乎國內公用事業那邊可能有部分是較長運距影響了 RPU。

Justin, Clarence again. About two years ago, three years ago, 2010, about 12% of our coal originations on CSX were coming out of the Illinois basin, and this most recent quarter, about 28%. Then most of the -- that coal has displaced central Appalachian coal, which is down fairly significantly. So we see the Illinois basin continuing to grow over time, number one. Number two, for our Southern utilities, Illinois basin is a longer length to haul. Therefore, it will tend to carry a higher RPU.

Justin，我是 Clarence。大約兩年前、三年前，也就是 2010 年，我們在 CSX 的煤炭起運量中，大約 12% 來自伊利諾伊盆地；而在最近這一季，大約是 28%。而其中大部分—那批煤已取代了中阿帕拉契（Central Appalachian）煤，而後者已大幅下滑。所以我們看到伊利諾伊盆地會隨時間持續成長，這是第一點。第二點，對我們南方的公用事業客戶而言，伊利諾伊盆地的運距更長。因此，它往往會帶來較高的 RPU。

Got it. That makes sense. So positive mix shift. Where do you see that going over time, Clarence? Do you have an idea of 28%? Is that what you think the max would be? Or can it go higher than that?

了解。這很合理。所以是正向的組合轉移。Clarence，隨時間推移你認為會到哪裡？你對 28% 有概念嗎？你覺得那會是上限嗎？還是可以高於那個水準？

It's going to go a lot higher than that.

會高很多。

And then, as I think about the domestic coal franchise, you guys in the past have talked about the fact that you had a lot of contracts in Q4. I think 20% to 25% of the book was expiring. As that gets closer, I'm curious, because it sounds like you've had some of these conversations already, and maybe the contracts are already built in. How much of that's already been addressed? And how much of your book is left to re-price, and how is that conversation going in terms of putting in the more variable cost structure and pricing structure that you guys have been talking to for a while now?

接著，當我思考你們國內煤炭業務時，你們過去談到第四季有很多合約到期。我記得大約有 20% 到 25% 的合約組合會到期。隨著時間接近，我很好奇，因為聽起來你們已經進行了一些對話，或許合約也已經納入考量。其中有多少已經處理完？你們還有多少合約組合需要重新議價？而在導入你們談了好一段時間、較具變動性的成本結構與定價結構方面，這些對話進展如何？

I think the same amount of contracts still have to be finalized, because you're correct in your assumption that we're in pretty serious negotiations with people. But we've had a lot of receptivity from a lot of the utilities for the fixed variable pricing. So it's a learning experience for some that haven't used it as much as anything.

我認為仍需要敲定的合約數量差不多，因為你對我們正與客戶進行相當嚴肅的談判這點是正確的。但我們在固定＋變動（fixed variable）定價方面，已獲得許多公用事業客戶相當高的接受度。所以對一些過去較少使用這種方式的客戶而言，這更像是一個學習過程。

So would that mean less liquidated damages on a go-forward basis, and probably just more variability in terms of your overall pricing schematic?

所以這是否意味著，未來的違約金（liquidated damages）會更少，並且你們整體定價架構在變動性上會更高？

It's obvious that the fixed variable would obviate some of the need for liquidated damages.

很明顯，固定＋變動的方式會消除一部分對違約金的需求。

All right. Thanks for the color.

好。謝謝補充說明。

Thomas Kim, Goldman Sachs.

Thomas Kim，高盛。

Want to just ask you with regard to the longer term outlook and how you're growing the various markets or verticals strategically. Where do you think coal sits in terms of the overall contribution to the mix? Let's say in 2015, as the OR basically stabilizes, as you say, in the similar set of range of 69% or so, or high 68% range.

我想就較長期展望，以及你們如何在策略上擴張各個市場或垂直領域來請教。你認為煤炭在整體組合貢獻中會處於什麼位置？例如到 2015 年，當你所說的 OR（營運比率）基本穩定在大約 69% 左右、或 68% 高段的相近區間時。

At 2015, which I guess is two years from now, I think coal now, as we said earlier, has -- is stabilized on a sequential basis. I think as those utility stockpiles draw down in the South, you could see some growth occurring over that period of time. And I think it's just too soon to assess what any further EPA regulations will be, because they'll certainly have court considerations in those.

到 2015 年，我想也就是兩年後，我認為煤炭目前如同我們先前所說，已在環比基礎上趨於穩定。我認為隨著南方公用事業庫存下降，你可能會在那段期間看到一些成長。而我認為現在要評估任何進一步的 EPA（美國環保署）法規會是什麼還太早，因為那些肯定會有法院審理的考量。

In the meantime, we'll be growing our other businesses. So as a percentage, coal will probably be a somewhat smaller percentage, because we'll continuing to grow the Intermodal, the crude by rail, the other markets where we have initiatives to grow the revenues, that's correct.

同時，我們會成長其他業務。因此，以占比來看，煤炭可能會是較小的比例，因為我們會持續成長聯運（Intermodal）、鐵路運輸原油，以及其他我們有推動計畫、用以提升營收的市場；是的，正是如此。

You're right. I think -- and the reason why I ask is because I'm -- clearly, part of the valuation differential between your good sales and some of your peers has, to a good extent, related to the coal side. And so -- and I'm curious as to what some of your targets or internal goals would be to try to mitigate and -- or I should say narrow that differential by addressing some of the market concerns around the coal as you think about the business? Much more strategically and longer term.

你說得對。我想——我之所以這麼問，是因為我——很明顯，你們良好銷售表現與部分同業之間的估值差異，在相當程度上與煤炭業務有關。所以——我很好奇，當你們思考這門業務時，為了因應市場對煤炭的疑慮，你們有哪些目標或內部目標，來嘗試降低——或者我應該說縮小——這個差距？更具策略性、也更偏長期的角度。

But -- and I think just [go] clarifying the -- my answer to the guidance before, overall, as we work off the 2013 base for the '14 and '15 years, we expect our coal business to be flat between domestic and export. And I think that gives you a sense of what the coal picture would look like. And then you add on to Michael's comment around the fact that we do see good growth prospects in many of our other markets, so that's the underlying assumption of our guidance.

不過——我想先釐清一下——我先前對財測指引的回答：整體而言，當我們以2013年為基礎來推估2014與2015年時，我們預期煤炭業務在國內與出口之間將大致持平。我想這能讓你對煤炭的情況有個概念。然後再加上Michael提到的，我們確實在其他許多市場看到良好的成長前景，這就是我們指引背後的基本假設。

Tom Wadewitz, JPMC.

Tom Wadewitz，摩根大通。

A question on export coal on the thermal side, Clarence. What level of API2 pricing, European thermal pricing, do you think is necessary for your customers to really make money and be sustainably in business? And if you stay at current pricing, which is pretty depressed, do you think it's reasonable to imply that you'd have a pretty significant step-down in your thermal exports in 2014?

Clarence，我有一個關於出口動力煤的問題。你認為API2價格、也就是歐洲動力煤價格，需要到什麼水準，你們的客戶才能真正賺錢並且可持續經營？如果維持在目前相當低迷的價格，你覺得是否可以合理推論你們2014年的動力煤出口量會出現相當明顯的下滑？

Let me give you two answers to that, Tom. The first answer is, the number, as a rule of thumb that we use, with what is necessary just to participate in the market, is going to be in the mid-$80s, somewhere in that number. But to make it sustainable over a long period of time, some of our customers, it probably needs to be in the mid to upper $80s.

Tom，我給你兩個答案。第一個答案是，作為我們使用的一個經驗法則，僅僅要能參與市場，所需的價格大概在80多美元中段，差不多就是那個數字。但若要在長期內具備可持續性，對我們的一些客戶而言，可能需要在80多美元中段到高段。

Okay. So then if you -- I guess we can just assume what we want on pricing, and then if you're not at that level, then you'd have some impact from the customers in your tonnage.

好的。那如果你——我想我們可以對價格做各種假設；如果沒有到那個水準，那客戶端就會對你們的出貨噸數造成一些影響。

Right. That's correct.

對。沒錯。

Okay. One more question for you, the follow-up question, I guess, on the crude by rail. I know you were asked this once. But wanted to see if you could talk about -- I think you've got a couple facilities, maybe two facilities that are scheduled to come online in second half of the year in the receiving side. And I'm wondering if those facilities have been -- are still on track to start up for receiving crude by rail trains, or whether there's been a delay in those facilities and in your volume expectation related to this spread compression that's been pretty significant.

好的。我還有一個追問，關於鐵路運輸原油（crude by rail）。我知道之前有人問過一次。但我想看看你能否談談——我想你們在接收端有幾個設施，可能是兩個設施，預計在今年下半年投產。我想知道這些設施是否仍按計畫啟用以接收鐵路原油列車，或是因為價差收斂相當明顯而導致設施延遲，以及你們對相關運量的預期是否也因此延後。

No, Tom, both facilities are still scheduled to come online here in the third quarter.

沒有，Tom，兩個設施仍預計在第三季上線。

Okay. Great.

好的。很好。

William Greene, Morgan Stanley.

William Greene，摩根士丹利。

Michael or even Oscar, I'm just wondering if I can ask you a little bit about productivity and cost. So if we look at the second half outlook, obviously still a bit challenged, the longer term outlook on coal questionable. So does it make sense to become now more aggressive on cost? Do almost an inflation plus productivity gain, in addition to the inflation plus pricing? Because it would seem to me that that's the way to almost ensure, outside the macro, that you continue to see these goals on the longer term basis that you're targeting.

Michael，或甚至Oscar，我想請教一下生產力與成本。如果我們看下半年展望，顯然仍有些挑戰，而煤炭的長期展望也不確定。那麼現在是否有必要在成本方面更積極？除了「通膨加定價」之外，也做到「通膨加生產力提升」？因為在我看來，這幾乎是確保你們在長期能持續達成目標的方式之一（撇除總體環境因素）。

Bill, it's Oscar. I couldn't agree with you more, and I think that's the path and initiative you've seen us take over many years.

Bill，我是Oscar。我完全同意，我認為這也是你多年來看到我們採取的方向與倡議。

We started the year thinking we'd get 130 of productivity. We're now saying in excess of 150. So we're constantly striving to find ways to drive down the cost, and I think the most interesting thing we're seeing, as we provide this better service to the customers, it also has very favorable impacts on our cost structure. So we're going to continue refining those resources and pulling them when they're not required and adding when they are required. But I think Oscar and his team are very focused on the productivity side.

我們年初原本認為可以達到130的生產力提升。現在我們說會超過150。所以我們一直在努力找方法降低成本；而我們看到最有趣的一點是，當我們為客戶提供更好的服務時，也會對我們的成本結構產生非常有利的影響。因此我們會持續精進資源配置：不需要時就收回，需要時就補上。但我認為Oscar和他的團隊非常專注在生產力這一塊。

Yes, I guess what I was getting at is, is there a world where you could say, cost cutting could become a much bigger part, an element to growing the actual earnings of the Company, as opposed to just waiting for coal and macro to come back?

是的，我想問的是：是否存在這樣的情境——成本削減可以成為公司實際獲利成長中更大的一部分，而不是只是等待煤炭與總體環境回升？

I think I'd reiterate what Michael said. I think there's a delicate balance between the service we're providing to our customers, clearly the safety of our employees, and the valuation impact that you discussed. And I think we balance all of those very well. And I think there is, on a good news front, there's a lot of efficiency to be gained in our industry, and certainly in our business, and we will pursue that.

我想我會重申Michael所說的。在我們提供給客戶的服務、員工的安全，以及你提到的估值影響之間，確實需要一個微妙的平衡。我認為我們把這些都平衡得很好。而且從好消息的角度來看，我們的產業、當然也包括我們的業務，仍有很多效率可以提升，我們會去追求。

Yes. Is there any element on CapEx that could come down, then, given what the outlook on coal is?

是的。那在資本支出（CapEx）方面，鑑於煤炭展望，是否有任何部分可以下調？

I think that the -- our CapEx guidance has an inherent ability to flex, depending on what we think that the gross ton miles is going to be within our coal business. So we have a revenue target out there, as a percentage of revenue in terms of what our CapEx is. And depending on what we see with coal, that CapEx as we get into '14 and '15, is going to flex, whatever we think the underlying workload will be.

我認為——我們的資本支出指引本身就具有彈性，會依我們判斷煤炭業務的總噸英里（gross ton miles）將是多少而調整。因此我們有一個資本支出占營收比重的目標。而取決於我們對煤炭的觀察，當我們進入2014與2015年時，資本支出會隨我們認為的基礎工作量而彈性調整。

And Bill, it's Oscar again. I can't underscore the amount of effort and work inside the Company with regards to asset utilization -- we term it enterprise asset management -- about ensuring that the efficiency of our operating network creates such a more fluid environment, where it does obviate the need for additional CapEx.

Bill，我再補充一下，我是Oscar。我必須強調，公司內部在資產利用方面投入了大量努力與工作——我們稱之為企業資產管理（enterprise asset management）——以確保我們營運網路的效率能創造更順暢的環境，從而免除新增資本支出的需求。

Okay. Great.

好的。很好。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

So wanted to ask one on, first, on export met. How much of the business right now is getting repriced on a quarterly basis? And so we saw that the benchmark wins and rates dropped 16% and 17% sequentially from second to third. Does your pricing go down that much? I think historically, it goes down a little bit less. I just wanted to get some color there. And maybe at a high level, if you think you can sustain flattish year over year overall coal yields in the back half of the year, given the renewed pressure on met rates?

我想先問一個關於出口冶金煤（export met）的问题。目前有多少業務是按季重新定價？我們看到基準價與運價從第二季到第三季分別環比下降16%與17%。你們的定價也會下降那麼多嗎？我想從歷史上看，通常會少降一點。我只是想了解一些細節。另外從較高層次來看，考量冶金煤運價再度承壓，你認為下半年整體煤炭單位收益（yields）能否維持大致與去年同期持平？

The answer to both questions is yes. Our coal, as we've said before, met coal and export coal does move with the market, but it doesn't move as much in either the upward direction or in the lower direction, as the coal pricing itself does.

兩個問題的答案都是可以。正如我們之前說過的，我們的煤炭——冶金煤與出口煤——確實會隨市場變動，但無論是上行或下行，其變動幅度都不會像煤價本身那麼大。

Okay. And that was a yes, also, to you think coal yields can be flattish in the back half of the year?

好的。那剛才的「可以」也包括你認為下半年煤炭單位收益可以大致持平嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, great. And then just one on crude by rail. I understand the -- your commentary that you're not seeing any signs of changes in the demand environment. Are you seeing any changes in the pricing environment from you or the rail industry overall, where you need to give up a little bit of price, given the lower spreads? Or can you envision a scenario where pricing starts to become a little bit more flexible, or get adjusted based on that spread, on a quarterly or some period basis?

好的，很好。接著再問一個關於鐵路運輸原油的問題。我理解——根據你們的評論，你們沒有看到需求環境有任何變化的跡象。在定價環境方面，無論是你們自身或整體鐵路產業，鑑於價差較低，你們是否看到需要在價格上讓步一些的變化？或者你能否想像一種情境：定價開始變得更有彈性一些，或依據該價差按季度或某個期間進行調整？

I cannot see such a scenario as that happening. We think we've got our product fairly priced. We think that the -- particularly with the tightness that's in the tank car fleets, that the things Oscar mentioned about the asset turns, become a selling point and become very important and critical to keep the overall cost structure to the end user down.

我看不出會發生那樣的情境。我們認為我們的產品定價相當合理。我們認為——特別是在槽車車隊供給緊張的情況下，Oscar 提到的那些資產周轉（asset turns）因素，會成為賣點，並且對於把終端用戶的整體成本結構維持在較低水準而言，變得非常重要且關鍵。

Okay. Great.

好的。很好。

Jason Seidl, Cowen.

Jason Seidl，Cowen。

I guess I'll shift gears and talk a little bit about the Intermodal business. The hours of service, obviously changes are just upon the truck load industry. I think all people agree it's going to have some level of degradation of utilization, therefore impacting capacity. In terms of domestic Intermodal, what is CSX seeing going forward? And what do you expect in terms of a potential volume pickup because of HOS?

我想我會換個話題，談一下聯運（Intermodal）業務。服務時數（hours of service）規定的變更，顯然正影響整個卡車整車（truckload）產業。我想大家都同意，這會在某種程度上降低車輛利用率，進而影響運能。就國內聯運而言，CSX 對未來的觀察是什麼？你們預期因 HOS 而可能帶來多少運量回升？

Jason, I met with two truckers last week, and they're not seeing as much impact as some of the people have forecasted. So they're looking at some numbers around 5%. As I'm sure you know, a 5% loss of productivity is -- I'm sure you know, there's been a lot of projections around much larger impacts on productivity than those numbers. I think it's too early to tell, until people settle down in some type of working pattern, of exactly what the impact is going to be. I think the more important thing in Intermodal is the value that's being offered to the customers, both in terms of service and in terms of price that's available to them now. And a better awareness of the beneficial cargoes of what those values are.

Jason，我上週和兩位卡車業者見面，他們看到的影響沒有一些人預測的那麼大。所以他們看的數字大約是 5%。如你所知，5% 的生產力損失——你也知道，外界對生產力影響的預測有很多，且不少預測遠大於這些數字。我認為現在下定論還太早，得等大家在某種工作模式中穩定下來，才能確定實際影響會是什麼。我認為聯運更重要的是提供給客戶的價值，包含服務以及他們目前可取得的價格。以及讓貨主（beneficial cargoes）更清楚了解這些價值。

And in terms of the pricing, are you guys going to take a balanced approach to this going forward, if there is some impact and some spillover in between price and volume?

那在定價方面，如果確實有一些影響，並且在價格與運量之間出現一些外溢效應，你們接下來會採取較為平衡的做法嗎？

I don't understand what you're asking. Ask me again.

我不太明白你在問什麼。再問一次。

If you have the opportunity to gain more market share, especially in some of the lanes that you can increase your (technical difficulty), is this going to be a situation where you're going to go for more volume initially? Or is this going to be more of a balanced approach in making sure you get properly compensated?

如果你們有機會提升市占率，特別是在某些你們可以提高你們的（technical difficulty）的路線上，這會不會是一種情況：你們會先追求更多運量？還是會採取更平衡的方式，確保你們獲得適當的報酬？

It's going to be a more balanced approach, as the big thing, I hope, if we've made any one point here, is we're about profitable growth.

會是更平衡的做法；我希望如果我們今天只傳達了一個重點，那就是我們追求的是獲利性成長。

Okay. My follow-up question, just so I can understand the longer term guidance. When you said that you're expecting flattish coal, so we should assume that the export coal assumptions in the out years are for 40 million tons?

好的。我的追問是，為了讓我理解較長期的指引。當你說你們預期煤炭大致持平時，我們是否應該假設未來幾年的出口煤假設是 4,000 萬噸？

No, I said overall, between domestic and export, and obviously as we're looking at the market right now, there's more downward pressure on export and perhaps more upward opportunities on domestic. But we got 2.5 years until that end point. So a lot of things will change. There's one thing you know when you put guidance together, and the underlying assumptions, most likely you're going to get there a different way than you originally assumed. So we're going to continue to do what we do best, which is a focus on things that we control, safety, service, efficiency and inflation plus pricing, and we feel very comfortable with the guidance that we have put in place.

不是。我說的是整體——包含國內與出口；而且很明顯，從我們目前看到的市場來看，出口端下行壓力較大，而國內端可能有更多上行機會。但距離那個終點還有 2.5 年。所以很多事情都會改變。有一件事你在做指引與其底層假設時就會知道：你最終很可能會以不同於原先假設的方式達成。因此我們會持續做我們最擅長的事，也就是聚焦在我們能控制的事項：安全、服務、效率，以及通膨以上的定價；我們對已提出的指引感到非常有信心。

And Fred, when you talk about an upward bias to domestic coal, when you look at the Southern utility stockpiles, how long do you think it's going to take for them to get where the Southern utility starts seeing a decent amount of growth in domestic coal?

Fred，當你談到國內煤有上行偏向時，從南部公用事業的庫存水位來看，你認為要多久南部公用事業才會開始看到國內煤出現相當程度的成長？

As we said, on the Northern part, we feel that we're where we need to be in terms of stockpiles. In the Southern end, we think by the end of the year, thereabouts, we think we should be at a more normalized level.

如我們所說，在北部地區，我們認為就庫存而言，我們已經達到需要的水準。在南部端，我們認為到今年年底左右，應該會回到較正常化的水準。

And we would just like the mid-Atlantic to send their heat down south. So that will help.

而且我們也希望大西洋中部把他們的熱氣往南送。那會有幫助。

(laughter) I'll gladly send it, guys. It's going to be a brutal one here in New York.

（笑聲）我很樂意送過去，各位。紐約這邊會非常難熬。

Ben Hartford, Baird.

Ben Hartford，Baird。

Fredrik, if I could just build on that point. Can you remind us what you had assumed in terms of met and thermal, within that 40 million tons target at the beginning of the year, and where you sit today? And then maybe if you could provide some context as well. A lot of discussion about the weakness in both thermal and met coal prices in the export market year-to-date. Can you give us any order of magnitude of where that 40 million tons run rate might be presently, if it weren't for the contracts that were struck late last year or early this year?

Fredrik，如果我可以在那點上再延伸一下。你能提醒我們，今年年初在 4,000 萬噸目標中，對冶金煤（met）與動力煤（thermal）的假設各是多少，以及你們現在的情況如何嗎？另外也請你提供一些背景。今年以來，市場對出口市場中動力煤與冶金煤價格走弱有很多討論。如果不是因為去年底或今年初簽下的合約，你能否給我們一個量級概念：以目前的價格，那 4,000 萬噸的運行水準（run rate）現在大概會落在什麼位置？

I'm going to leave the second part of the question to Clarence, but this is Fredrik. And I would say, in terms of the mix between met and steam in our long-term guidance, we have not given any sort of indication where we think that is. Because here's one thing we do know, that it's very difficult to forecast exactly where export coal is going to be, and even more difficult is to forecast what the split is going to be between the two.

第二部分我交給 Clarence 回答，但我是 Fredrik。我會說，就我們長期指引中冶金煤與蒸汽煤（steam）的組合而言，我們沒有提供任何我們認為會是什麼比例的指引。因為有一件事我們確實知道：要精準預測出口煤會落在哪裡非常困難，而更困難的是預測兩者之間的分拆比例。

And in the current quarter, that was -- and in the first of half, it's been 57/43 has been the split. 57 met. And I think our coal team, and the export team, did nothing short of a brilliant job in getting a lot of these thermal contracts particularly in place before this API index has collapsed so much. The met was much more difficult to predict. The Australian dollar against the US dollar dropped 9% in the second quarter, and that severely impacted the met imports, along with the fact that the growth in China and the recessionary tendencies you've had in Europe have impacted those steel-making industries. So it's a little hard for us to tell you what it's going to be doing here in the second half, other than what we were confident that we've got committed now.

而在本季——以及上半年——分拆比例是 57/43。57 是冶金煤。我認為我們的煤炭團隊與出口團隊在 API 指數大幅崩跌之前，特別是先把許多動力煤合約敲定，表現可說非常出色。冶金煤則更難預測。第二季澳幣兌美元下跌了 9%，這對冶金煤進口造成了嚴重影響；再加上中國成長放緩，以及歐洲出現的衰退傾向，影響了那些煉鋼產業。所以我們很難告訴你下半年會怎麼走，除了我們現在已經有把握、已承諾的部分。

Yes, is there any context, I guess, in terms of the order of magnitude of where -- how much lower that export coal number would be in total at present prices? Is it -- would it be a 10% reduction? A 50% reduction? Anything within that context might be helpful.

是的，我想問是否能提供一些背景：就量級而言——以目前價格，出口煤總量現在會低多少？會是減少 10% 嗎？減少 50% 嗎？任何在這個脈絡下的資訊都會有幫助。

I don't have -- I just don't know. The Australians, they're going to control what happens to that met market in any event, and they're probably about as low as they want to go.

我沒有——我真的不知道。無論如何，澳洲人會主導冶金煤市場會發生什麼，而且他們大概已經降到他們願意降的最低程度了。

Okay. That's good.

好的。那很好。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Securities.

Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Securities。

I was just wondering if you could give us a bit more color on the impact of mix in an overall sense in the quarter? Clearly, it was still negative, but it did seem maybe it was a little bit less negative than it had been, because you did have some decent growth in some of your higher-yielding Merchandise segments.

我只是想請問，您是否可以就本季整體而言，產品組合（mix）對業績的影響再多提供一些說明？顯然它仍然是負面的，但看起來可能比先前沒那麼負面一些，因為你們在一些收益率較高的商品（Merchandise）業務板塊有不錯的成長。

As we outlined in our presentation, the RPU was up about 1%. Our overall pricing, when you include everything, was a little bit above 2% on a same store sale basis. That would indicate about 1% or so of negative mix, and that is to be expected as our coal business continues to decline as a percentage of our portfolio, and Intermodal, which is significantly lower RPU, is continuing to grow. So the overall pricing, as you saw if you take out export coal, because that continues to be a drag, of course, on our pricing overall, is very solid, right around 4%. So mix is going to be something that we're going to be dealing with for a long period of time -- negative mix, as Intermodal business continues to become a bigger and bigger percentage of our portfolio.

如同我們在簡報中所概述，RPU 約上升了 1%。若把所有因素都納入，我們的整體定價在同店銷售（same store sale）基礎上略高於 2%。這表示大約有 1% 左右的負面組合影響；這是可預期的，因為我們的煤炭業務占投資組合的比重持續下降，而 RPU 明顯較低的聯運（Intermodal）業務持續成長。因此，整體定價如你所見，若剔除出口煤（export coal）—因為它當然持續拖累我們的整體定價—其實非常穩健，約在 4% 左右。所以，隨著聯運業務在我們的投資組合中占比愈來愈大，組合將會是我們在很長一段時間內都必須面對的議題——負面組合。

Okay. And Clarence, just wondering if you could offer some thoughts on the peak season? And just whether you're seeing the housing recovery translate into any kind of a ripple effect into things like furniture?

好的。另外 Clarence，想請你談談旺季（peak season）的看法？以及你們是否看到房市復甦帶來任何連鎖效應，影響到像家具這類品項？

Actually, what we've seen in the housing impacts has not been an impact on furniture. We -- there was a lot of inventory, for example, for appliances, couple of the major manufacturers, and we've seen that inventory actually drop as the housing starts have increased. What was your first part of your question? The phone went out.

其實，我們看到的房市影響並沒有反映在家具上。我們——例如家電方面，幾家主要製造商先前有大量庫存；隨著新屋開工（housing starts）增加，我們看到那些庫存實際上在下降。你問題的第一部分是什麼？電話斷線了。

Peak season.

旺季。

Peak season? I'm not sure I know if we're going to have a good peak season or just an average peak season. And average being defined as what peak has been over the last few years. We'll certainly start to get an indication of that toward the end of this month, July, because a lot of the shipments that will be in the back-to-school area, that will be getting ready for the holiday seasons, will all start here in early August. So we'll be able to tell by the lift in the vessels coming out of Asia what that peak is going to look like.

旺季？我不確定我們會有一個很好的旺季，還是只是一般的旺季。而「一般」的定義是過去幾年旺季的水準。我們當然會在本月底、也就是 7 月底左右開始看到一些跡象，因為許多屬於返校（back-to-school）以及為假期季（holiday seasons）做準備的貨運，都會在 8 月初開始啟動。因此，我們可以透過從亞洲出港的船舶增量來判斷這次旺季會是什麼樣子。

Okay. That's it from me.

好的。我這邊就這些。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

David Vernon，Bernstein。

Could we talk a little about the strength in domestic coal pricing? How much of that is due to the move to fixed and variable pricing with utility customers right now?

我們能否談談國內煤炭定價走強的原因？其中有多少是因為目前與公用事業客戶改採固定與浮動（fixed and variable）定價所致？

I would say that, not a lot. It's been mostly impacted by the overall pricing philosophy that we had. About 20% of our volume right now is covered -- or revenue, not volume. Revenue is covered by the fixed variable. So most of it has come off of either the escalators or renegotiated contracts.

我會說，不是很多。主要是受到我們整體定價理念的影響。目前大約 20% 的營收受到涵蓋——或說是營收，不是運量。營收是由固定/浮動機制所涵蓋。所以大部分的改善來自於自動調價條款（escalators）或重新協商的合約。

So there's in that 20% of the revenue is moving on the fixed variable, is that -- would that be including a bunch of fixed charge? Or was that at an average rate? I'm just trying to get a sense for how the RPU should move as volume flexes.

所以在那 20% 採固定/浮動機制的營收中，那——是否包含一大部分固定費用（fixed charge）？還是以平均費率計？我只是想了解，當運量彈性變動時，RPU 應該如何變化。

This quarter there's been no real material impact.

本季並沒有任何實質性的重大影響。

Okay. And then just one last question, Clarence. The IP numbers you guys put out on the macro side look like they're down a little bit, about 60 BPS. And the general balance of the commodity outlook swings a little bit more favorable. Is that just ag? Or are you hearing some more on the industrial side that would lead you to believe the cut in forward IP numbers is probably unwarranted?

好的。最後一個問題，Clarence。你們在總體（macro）面提供的 IP 數據看起來略有下修，大約 60 個基點。而整體商品展望的平衡點似乎轉向更有利一些。那只是農業（ag）嗎？還是你們在工業端也聽到更多訊息，讓你們認為對未來 IP 數據的下修可能並不合理？

Are you saying -- ask me that again. I didn't understand that.

你是說——請再問我一次。我沒有聽懂。

Sorry. I looked at the industrial production growth rates that you guys had in the first quarter, the second quarter, and they look like they're down about 60 BPS.

抱歉。我看了你們第一季、第二季的工業生產（industrial production）成長率，看起來大約下修了 60 個基點。

Industrial products.

工業產品（Industrial products）。

Industrial production.

工業生產（Industrial production）。

(multiple speakers) IDP.

（多位發言者）IDP。

(multiple speakers) The macro outlook. Right.

（多位發言者）總體展望。對。

Those numbers are coming out of global insights, and it's interesting, as I do all the time, about the IDP and the GDP numbers. Whatever some of these agencies predict they're going to be, I know they're not going to be that. (laughter) I think the industrial growth has been a little bit stronger than what some of these numbers have indicated here for our business. It's certainly showing up in some of the construction materials that we had, as opposed to the paper side of the business. It's strong in our automotive business. It's not as strong in our steel business as we think it should be. But I -- it looks to me like we're going to continue to have growth in the IDP numbers as we move forward.

那些數字來自 Global Insights；而且很有趣的是，我一向都會看 IDP 和 GDP 的數字。不管這些機構預測會是多少，我知道最後通常不會是那個數字。（笑聲）我認為工業成長其實比這些數字對我們業務所顯示的要更強一些。這點確實反映在我們的一些建材（construction materials）上，而不是紙品（paper）那一端。我們的汽車業務很強。鋼鐵業務沒有我們認為應該有的那麼強。但我——看起來我們往前走，IDP 數字仍會持續成長。

I guess, Clarence, what housing starts last year were about 780,000, and we're thinking they may be in the 900,000 to 950,000 range.

我想，Clarence，去年新屋開工大約是 78 萬戶，而我們認為可能會落在 90 萬到 95 萬戶的區間。

That's right.

沒錯。

So it is growing, but from a very low base, because a normalized rate is more than 1.5 million. At the peak, it was 2.5. So we're seeing some growth there, but from a real small base. I guess secondly, at least at this point, there's a good planting of crop. So we're hopeful that, toward the end of the third quarter, we're going to see some very good growth in our ag shipments, which have been down for the first half.

所以它確實在成長，但基期非常低，因為正常化水準超過 150 萬戶。在高峰時是 250 萬戶。因此我們看到一些成長，但起點很低。我想第二點，至少就目前而言，作物播種情況良好。所以我們希望在第三季末，我們的農業（ag）運輸量能看到非常好的成長；而上半年這部分是下滑的。

All right. Great. That's what I was trying to get at.

好。很好。這正是我想問的。

John Larkin, Stifel Nicolaus.

John Larkin，Stifel Nicolaus。

By the way, there was some disappointing housing numbers out this morning, you may want to check on that, down 9.9% in June. Just as information. That was a surprise to many people, I think. First question, the incentive comp. I think, Fredrik, you said was up $24 million year over year. How do you reconcile that with the outlook for a flattish year in terms of EPS year over year?

順帶一提，今天早上公布的房市數據有些令人失望，你們可能想確認一下，6 月下滑 9.9%。提供資訊參考。我想這讓很多人感到意外。第一個問題是激勵性薪酬（incentive comp）。我記得 Fredrik 你說年增 2,400 萬美元。你如何將這點與你們對 EPS 年增大致持平（flattish）的展望相互對照？

I think, really, you got to go back to last year, when we set our plan for 2012, it was really done in December. We had obviously anticipated a 2012 that turned out to be very different than -- anticipated 2012 that was very different coal environment. And as we moved through 2012, we took down our incentive compensation quite significantly. And we also now have a much larger part of our unions participating in that incentive comp plan. So as you get into 2013 and you reset the targets to properly motivate and incentivize your employees, that headwind becomes a lot more significant and that's what you're seeing this year.

我想你真的得回到去年來看；當我們在 2011 年 12 月制定 2012 年計畫時，我們顯然預期 2012 年會是另一種情況——我們當時預期的 2012 年，煤炭環境會非常不同。而在 2012 年的推進過程中，我們相當大幅度地下調了激勵性薪酬。此外，現在有更大比例的工會成員也參與了這個激勵性薪酬計畫。因此當你進入 2013 年並重新設定目標，以適當地激勵並驅動員工時，這個逆風就會變得更顯著，而這就是你今年看到的情況。

Roughly how much of that incentive is related to the unionized labor force?

那項激勵措施中，大約有多少比例與工會化勞動力有關？

It is a relatively large percentage, but I don't have that here.

比例相對高，但我手邊沒有具體數字。

Okay.

好的。

But this has been something that's been going on over the last couple of years.

不過這是過去幾年一直在發生的事情。

And then just on the large accident that unfortunately happened up in Quebec involving a crude by rail train, often regulators will, if nothing else, in a knee jerk reaction, put in place some pretty onerous regulations. We saw that with the PTC mandate. Did you see anything like that coming out of that accident across North America? And will that make it more expensive to move crude by rail and therefore less attractive vis-a-vis, say, pipeline?

另外，關於不幸在魁北克發生、涉及原油鐵路運輸列車的重大事故，監管機構往往即便只是出於本能反應，也會推出一些相當嚴苛的規定。我們在 PTC 強制令上就看到了這種情況。你是否看到這起事故在北美引發類似的後續措施？而這是否會使原油鐵路運輸成本更高、因此相較於例如管線運輸更不具吸引力？

Tom, this is Michael. First off, we wish to want to express our condolences to the people there in Quebec. It was a terrible accident, and the first responders did a great job of responding to that horrible accident. As you know, they're still investigating what the cause of it is, and I think until the cause is known, it's a little hard to speculate whether there would be additional regulations or not. As you're well aware, we move these because we're a common carrier, and we have a very good record of safety in handling these products. So I'm hopeful that, as they determine the cause of this, if there's something to be learned to make us safer, we want to learn from that, because our ultimate goal was zero. We have a great record now. We want it to be better. So I think until there's a causation here, it's going to be a little difficult to see whether there will be a push for further regulation or not.

Tom，我是 Michael。首先，我們想向魁北克當地的民眾表達哀悼。那是一場可怕的事故，而第一線應變人員對那起悲劇事故的處置做得非常好。如你所知，他們仍在調查事故原因；在原因尚未明朗之前，要推測是否會有額外監管，我認為有點困難。你也很清楚，我們之所以運送這些貨物，是因為我們是公共承運人（common carrier），而我們在處理這些產品方面有非常良好的安全紀錄。因此我希望，當他們釐清原因後，如果有任何可學習之處能讓我們更安全，我們一定會學習，因為我們的最終目標是零事故。我們目前的紀錄已經很好。我們希望它更好。所以在因果關係尚未確定之前，要判斷是否會推動進一步監管，仍會有些困難。

Matt Troy, Susquehanna International.

Matt Troy，Susquehanna International。

I think this is a question on coal economics. Obviously, exports have been the perceptual albatross, if you will, for your story. And after about two years, they've been poised to drop. Now that we're seeing that, I was just wondering, you implied flat guidance next year in terms of volumes, but there's negative mix. What's the profitability relationship between exports and domestic? Some folks will say it's 2 times, 3 times is profitable. But in export move versus domestic, I think that's crazy. But if you could help us in terms of what that negative mix shift might mean for profitability of coal as a whole, that might help alleviate some concerns in the market about the decline in export tonnage.

我想這是一個關於煤炭經濟性的問題。顯然，出口一直是你們故事中（如果你願意這麼說）在觀感上最沉重的包袱。而在大約兩年之後，出口量已經準備要下滑。現在我們看到確實如此，我想請教：你暗示明年在運量方面的指引是持平，但組合卻偏負面。出口與內銷之間的獲利關係是什麼？有些人會說出口的獲利是內銷的 2 倍、3 倍。但就出口運輸相對於內銷而言，我覺得那很誇張。不過如果你能協助我們理解，這種負向組合轉移對整體煤炭獲利可能意味著什麼，或許能緩解市場對出口噸數下滑的疑慮。

Yes, I would say that in the past, prior to us taking -- this is Fredrik, by the way. Prior to us taking some of these rate reductions in our export portfolio, we would have said, if you combine the met and the steam together on the export side, and you compared with domestic, they're relatively similar. Now, with some of the reductions that's we've had to make on export side, I would say that perhaps the domestic portfolio is slightly more profitable. So that from that perspective, at this point, it's not a bad thing. Overall, obviously, coal is a profitable business for us, because it's a very efficient way of moving things, unit train, that's a conveyor belt. So it is not as big of a deal as perhaps some people might think.

是的，我會說過去在我們採取——順帶一提，我是 Fredrik。在我們對出口組合中的部分運價做出一些下調之前，我們會說：如果把出口端的冶金煤（met）與動力煤（steam）合併來看，並與內銷相比，兩者的獲利能力相對接近。現在，因為我們在出口端不得不做出一些降價，我會說內銷組合可能略為更有利可圖。因此從這個角度看，目前這並不是壞事。整體而言，煤炭對我們來說仍是獲利的業務，因為這是一種非常有效率的運輸方式——單元列車（unit train）就像一條輸送帶。所以它並不像某些人想的那麼嚴重。

I agree, and good to hear. The second question I had simply relates to Intermodal capacity. You talked about the percentage of your traffic that's flowing into double stack lanes moving up into 2015. In terms of train length and some of the yard and asset productivity initiatives, what's the capacity to grow just average train length, where we know those incremental margins for the last cars you're adding are pretty significant?

我同意，也很高興聽到這點。我第二個問題是關於聯運（Intermodal）運能。你提到你們的運量中，流入雙層堆疊（double stack）路線的比例在 2015 年前會上升。就列車長度，以及一些場站與資產生產力提升的措施而言，單純拉長平均列車長度的成長空間有多大？我們知道新增最後幾節車廂的增量利潤相當可觀。

This is Clarence. Matt, I think it's fairly significant. We still have plenty of capacity as we lengthen the trains and to fill them up in the air. So it's a positive thing for us.

我是 Clarence。Matt，我認為空間相當大。我們在拉長列車並把它們裝滿方面，仍有充足的運能餘裕。所以這對我們是正面的。

All right. More to come.

好的。後續還會有更多。

Jeff Kauffman, Buckingham Research.

Jeff Kauffman，Buckingham Research。

Congratulations. Thank you for taking my question. I'll keep it short. Given the weaker global outlook on API2, and you had mentioned the Australian exchange, these aren't things likely to turn on a dime. Yet you maintain the 2013 to 2015 guidance. So something else, I'm assuming, got a little bit better to offset this. What would that have been?

恭喜。謝謝讓我提問。我簡短問一下。在 API2 全球展望較弱、以及你提到澳洲交易所的情況下，這些因素不太可能在短時間內急轉直上。但你們仍維持 2013 到 2015 年的指引。所以我猜想，應該有其他因素變得更好以抵消這些影響。那會是什麼？

Jeff, this is Fredrik. Overall, I would say that the reason why we took the guidance up for 2013 was really what happened here in the second quarter. We have several one-time events that got a little bit better than we expected. And that's the foundation, obviously, then also for our long-term guidance. So clearly, the export coal market has gotten a little bit weaker, but we continue to execute very well on the things that we do control, which is what we're focusing on once again, safety, service, efficiency and inflation plus pricing. And that's what gives us confidence to take up guidance slightly. And really is a reflection of what happened more of what happened here in the second quarter than anything that's going to happen in the second half. The second half is still going to be very challenging, consistent with the points that I had in my prepared remarks.

Jeff，我是 Fredrik。整體來說，我會說我們之所以把 2013 年指引上調，主要是因為第二季的表現。我們有幾個一次性事件的結果比我們預期稍好。而這也成為我們長期指引的基礎。所以很明顯，出口煤市場確實變得稍微疲弱，但我們仍持續把我們能掌控的事情執行得很好；我們再次聚焦在安全、服務、效率，以及高於通膨的定價。這就是我們有信心小幅上調指引的原因。而這其實更多反映的是第二季發生的事情，而不是下半年將要發生的事情。下半年仍會非常具挑戰性，這也與我在事先準備的發言中提到的重點一致。

Okay. I'm sorry, Fredrik. What I meant was not 2013, but the 2014, 2015 view. If we're thinking the export markets could be weaker in 2014, what else got better to keep the consistent 10% to 15% to 2015 view?

好的。抱歉，Fredrik。我指的不是 2013 年，而是 2014、2015 年的看法。如果我們認為 2014 年出口市場可能更弱，那麼有哪些因素變得更好，才能維持到 2015 年 10% 到 15% 的一致看法？

So two things. First of all, what we have said here is that overall coal we expect to be flat.

有兩點。首先，我們在這裡說的是，整體煤炭我們預期會持平。

Okay.

好的。

And so I'm not sure that domestic coal necessarily has gotten stronger during this last quarter, since we issued the guidance originally. But what we are comfortable with is the fact that we are continuing to execute well. And then second, in our guidance is a range of 10% to 15%, so within that range we definitely feel comfortable that we would be able to deliver our earnings growth according to that guidance.

因此，自從我們最初發布該指引以來，我不確定內銷煤在上一季是否真的變得更強。但我們有把握的是，我們持續執行得很好。第二，我們的指引是一個 10% 到 15% 的區間，所以在這個區間內，我們確實有信心能依照該指引交付獲利成長。

Jeff, this is Michael. The only thing I'd add to that is we have, especially in the last couple of years, seen there's a lot of volatility in the marketplace out there, both with the economy, the energy environment, and it starts to feel like 2.5 years is a long time and many things happen. So what we're trying to position ourselves for, whenever there's opportunities we're making sure we're flexible around. If you think back three years ago, who would have even been talking about crude by rail? So there's a lot of things that can move around in a 2.5 year period.

Jeff，我是 Michael。我唯一想補充的是，特別是在過去幾年，我們看到市場上有很大的波動性，無論是經濟面、能源環境；而且會開始覺得 2.5 年其實很長，很多事情都可能發生。所以我們試圖讓自己處於一個位置：只要有機會出現，我們就確保自己具備彈性去因應。回想三年前，誰會在談論原油鐵路運輸（crude by rail）？所以在 2.5 年期間，有很多事情都可能改變。

Michael, Fredrik, thank you and congratulations.

Michael、Fredrik，謝謝你們，也恭喜。

Justin Long, Stephens.

Justin Long，Stephens。

Quick question. Outside of export coal, would you say that core pricing gains right now are pretty consistent among your different end markets? Or are you seeing any particular areas of strength or weakness? And you touched on Intermodal a little bit earlier. But right now, what would you say the pricing dynamics are in that market, given some of the capacity expansions we have going on in the east?

簡單問一個問題。除了出口煤之外，您會說目前在你們不同終端市場之間，核心定價的漲幅相當一致嗎？還是你們看到某些特別強或特別弱的領域？你稍早也稍微提到聯運（Intermodal）。但就目前而言，考量到我們在東部進行的一些運能擴張，你會怎麼描述該市場的定價動態？

Justin, this is Clarence Gooden. The -- our pricing has been pretty consistent across all of our lines of businesses. There's been a couple that obviously have one point or so better than others. Our Intermodal pricing is always under a lot of intense pressure, not only from other rail competition, but the real competitor is the highway and is the trucker. And there's still a lot of trucking capacity out there. There's still a lot of unused trucking capacity that we see. So the pricing pressures that remain in Intermodal remain from the highway, and it is probably one of our most difficult markets in which to price in. But the others are pretty consistent across the board. We feel very confident that we can get inflation plus pricing.

Justin，我是Clarence Gooden。我們的定價在各條業務線上一直都相當一致。當然有幾個業務線明顯比其他的好大概一個百分點左右。我們的聯運定價一向承受很大的壓力，不僅來自其他鐵路競爭，真正的競爭對手其實是公路運輸，也就是卡車業者。而且外面仍有大量卡車運能。我們看到仍有很多閒置的卡車運能。因此，聯運仍面臨來自公路的定價壓力，這可能是我們最難定價的市場之一。但其他業務整體而言都相當一致。我們非常有信心能做到高於通膨的定價。

Okay. Great. As a quick follow-up, on your guidance for 2013 EPS to be roughly flat year over year, there have been some gains and one-time items over the last year. So I was wondering if you could clarify what you're using as both a base EPS number for 2012, as well as what you're using for the first two quarters of this year?

好的。很好。再追問一下，關於你們對2013年每股盈餘（EPS）指引大致與去年持平，過去一年有一些收益與一次性項目。所以我想請你們釐清一下，你們用來作為2012年基準的EPS數字是多少，以及你們用來看今年前兩季的是哪些數字？

So the base that we have is $1.79, is what we had in 2012. So that's really what we're saying roughly flat, that's what we're expecting again. You're right, we've had -- we had the fortune for -- of several one-time items on our expense side. And also, of course, had the liquidated damages on the top line that has helped us in the first half, which is why the second half is going to be more difficult than the first half. But the base is $1.79.

我們的基準是2012年的1.79美元。所以我們所說的大致持平，就是預期再次達到這個水準。你說得對，我們在費用端確實有幾項一次性項目帶來的好處。另外，當然，上半年營收端也有違約金（liquidated damages）挹注，這也是為什麼下半年會比上半年更具挑戰。但基準就是1.79美元。

And for the first half of 2013, what EPS numbers are you using? Are you using the GAAP numbers?

那2013年上半年，你們使用的EPS數字是多少？你們是使用GAAP數字嗎？

Using the reported numbers.

使用已公布的數字。

Okay. Great.

好的。很好。

Keith Schoonmaker, Morningstar.

Keith Schoonmaker，Morningstar。

You mentioned the proportion of domestic coal originating in Illinois basin, I think, has doubled from 2010 levels. Other than a longer length of haul, are there aspects of this business that either benefit or constrain productivity or price? For example, train length, car type, lower grade, et cetera?

你提到國內煤炭中源自伊利諾盆地（Illinois basin）的占比，我記得相較2010年的水準已經翻倍。除了運距更長之外，這項業務是否還有其他面向會帶來生產力或價格上的好處或限制？例如列車長度、車型、煤質較低等等？

Keith, this is Clarence Gooden. No, there are no other constraints.

Keith，我是Clarence Gooden。沒有，沒有其他限制。

It's a good move for us.

這對我們是個很好的轉變。

It's a good move for us.

這對我們是個很好的轉變。

And are there more fixed variable contract structures in this region, or is there no structural pricing difference?

那在這個地區，固定/變動（fixed variable）的合約結構是否更多？還是說在定價結構上沒有差異？

The fixed variable is with the end receiver.

固定/變動是跟最終收貨方（end receiver）之間的安排。

Yes.

是的。

So depends entirely on where they receive their coal from.

所以完全取決於他們的煤是從哪裡接收的。

Great.

很好。

(multiple speakers) Illinois basin or Central App, either one.

（多位發言者）伊利諾盆地或中阿帕拉契（Central App），兩者皆可。

Yes.

是的。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital.

Walter Spracklin，RBC Capital。

Just a quick question on Intermodal. I know that's been a big part of your underlying growth driver. And I think it, perhaps, is getting a little dropped off in terms of context, given coal. So you've invested a lot in your Intermodal network. You've talked about that 9 million loads that are available in truck. When you look at your 4% domestic growth this year, is there any way to disaggregate where you're getting that growth, in terms of success of converting? And then the follow-up to that is, let's just say it starts coming online a lot quicker than you expect. Where is the next bottleneck? I know you've done a great job double stacking. You've got plenty of capacity on your -- on an average train length basis. If it really starts coming online, where will we see the next pinch point?

關於聯運我有個簡短問題。我知道那一直是你們底層成長動能的重要部分。而我覺得在煤炭的背景下，聯運的脈絡可能有點被淡化了。你們在聯運網路上投入很多。你們也談到有900萬趟載運量目前在卡車那邊。當你們看今年國內4%的成長時，有沒有辦法拆解這些成長來源，例如轉換成功的貢獻？接著追問，如果它開始比你們預期更快上線，下一個瓶頸會在哪裡？我知道你們在雙層堆疊（double stacking）方面做得很好。以平均列車長度來看，你們也有充足的運能。如果真的快速上線，我們會在哪裡看到下一個卡點？

Walter, I would say that the biggest growth has come vis-a-vis our channel partners from the beneficial cargo owners themselves, and being able to say what the value of Intermodal is. And we have a pretty good handle around who those customers are and what some of their needs and all are. I think our -- we've looked at, in terms of where we could have potential capacity problems in the future going forward, so you heard us mention in the prepared remarks. Number one, we've already got in the planning to expand our Northwest Ohio hub. We're looking at where we could have potential bottlenecks in the Southeast, because there's a lot of growth, both in terms of population as well as in terms of highway conversions in the Southeast.

Walter，我會說最大的成長主要來自我們的通路夥伴，以及貨主（beneficial cargo owners）本身，並且能夠清楚傳達聯運的價值。我們對這些客戶是誰、以及他們的一些需求等，都掌握得相當清楚。至於未來可能出現的運能問題，我們也做過評估，所以你在我們事先準備的發言中也聽到提到。第一，我們已經在規劃擴建西北俄亥俄（Northwest Ohio）樞紐。我們也在檢視東南部可能出現的瓶頸，因為東南部不論人口成長或公路轉換（highway conversions）都有很大的成長。

We are expanding Atlanta now, right?

我們現在正在擴建亞特蘭大，對吧？

We're expanding Atlanta as we speak. We -- as you know, we built our Louisville terminal. That -- we went way over capacity -- over the capacity of that terminal in Louisville fairly quickly. And so we had to get in and expand that pretty quick. As the Florida market has continued to grow, we had the foresight to get into the Winter Haven market on an early basis. So we feel like we're pretty well-positioned in terms of capacity for Intermodal growth.

我們正在擴建亞特蘭大。我們——如你所知——建了路易維爾（Louisville）場站。那個——我們很快就遠遠超過路易維爾場站的設計運能。所以我們必須很快進去把它擴建。隨著佛羅里達市場持續成長，我們有遠見，早期就進入溫特黑文（Winter Haven）市場。因此我們覺得，就聯運成長所需的運能而言，我們的布局相當到位。

And segregating that 4% growth, how much would you attribute to that -- to conversion or your customers winning market share? And how much is it just simple growth or gaining market share against your rail competitor?

那把這4%的成長拆開來看，你會把多少歸因於轉換，或你們客戶贏得市占？又有多少只是單純的成長，或是相對於你們的鐵路競爭對手取得市占？

It would be difficult for me to segregate that, to be honest with you.

老實說，我很難把它拆分得那麼細。

Okay. That's it.

好的。就這樣。

Thank you all for your attendance today. See you next quarter.

感謝各位今天的出席。我們下個季度見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷電話線。