CSX Corp (CSX) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the CSX Corporation earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加CSX公司財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Korn, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係主管馬修·科恩。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Good afternoon, everyone. We're very pleased to have you join our fourth quarter earnings call. Joining me from the CSX leadership team are Steve Angel, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mike Cory, EVP and Chief Operating Officer; Kevin Boone, EVP and Chief Financial Officer; and Maryclare Kenney, SVP and Chief Commercial Officer. In the presentation that accompanies this call, which is available on our website, you will find slides with our forward-looking and non-GAAP disclosures. We encourage you to review them.

謝謝你，莎拉。大家下午好。我們非常高興您能參加我們第四季財報電話會議。與我一同出席的還有 CSX 領導團隊成員：總裁兼執行長 Steve Angel；執行副總裁兼營運長 Mike Cory；執行副總裁兼財務長 Kevin Boone；以及資深副總裁兼首席商務長 Maryclare Kenney。在本次電話會議的簡報中（可在我們的網站上找到），您將找到包含我們前瞻性和非GAAP揭露資訊的幻燈片。我們建議您查看這些內容。

And with that, I'm very happy to turn the call over to Mr. Steve Angel.

接下來，我很高興將電話交給史蒂夫安吉爾先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter call. This has been a challenging year for CSX and for our industry overall with subdued demand and limited growth opportunities persisting across many of our key markets. Against this backdrop, our service levels remained positive in the fourth quarter, and we delivered modest total volume growth. However, reported operating income, operating margin and earnings per share were all lower year over year. As noted in our press release, these results included approximately $50 million in expenses related to important actions we've taken to adjust our cost structure, deliver better financial results and position the railroad to succeed.

下午好，感謝各位參加我們第四季電話會議。對於 CSX 和我們整個產業來說，今年都是充滿挑戰的一年，許多主要市場的需求疲軟，成長機會有限。在此背景下，我們第四季的服務水準保持良好，總銷量也實現了小幅成長。然而，報告的營業收入、營業利潤率和每股盈餘均較去年同期下降。正如我們在新聞稿中所述，這些結果包括約 5000 萬美元的支出，這些支出與我們為調整成本結構、取得更好的財務業績以及使鐵路公司走向成功而採取的重要措施有關。

We are committed to delivering stronger performance into 2026 as we build on our key accomplishments. We've renewed the leadership team, putting the best people into the best positions to drive value. And we're aligned in driving greater physical responsibility and disciplined execution across the company. We've stabilized service on our network at high levels, delivering consistency and reliability for our customers while realizing clear productivity gains. We've capitalized on the strength of our service to win business, and we will be ready and able to respond when demand increases.

我們致力於在已取得的關鍵成就基礎上，在 2026 年取得更強勁的業績。我們重組了領導團隊，將最優秀的人才安排在最合適的職位上，以創造價值。我們在推動公司內部加強實際操作責任和嚴格執行方面達成了一致。我們已將網路服務穩定在高水平，為客戶提供了穩定可靠的服務，同時實現了明顯的生產力提升。我們憑藉優質的服務贏得了業務，當需求增加時，我們將隨時做好準備並能夠做出回應。

As we move forward, you will continue to see us take thoughtful actions to drive greater profitability and cash flow and build momentum into the year ahead.

展望未來，我們將繼續採取深思熟慮的措施，以提高獲利能力和現金流，並為來年的發展奠定基礎。

And now I'll turn it over to Mike.

現在我把麥克風交給麥克。

Thank you, Steve. So let's take a quick look at our safety and operational metrics on slide 5. Our operations team is improving safety performance through focused execution of our safety plan. The left portion of this slide highlights meaningful full year declines in both FRA injury and accident rates with the fourth quarter posting the year's best metrics. We know that an outstanding safety record is a clear indicator of effective management at every level, and we're taking solid steps towards our goal of reaching best-in-class performance for the industry.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。那麼，讓我們快速看一下第 5 頁投影片上的安全和營運指標。我們的營運團隊透過集中執行安全計劃，不斷提高安全績效。這張幻燈片的左側部分重點展示了 FRA 傷害率和事故率全年顯著下降，其中第四季度的指標為全年最佳。我們知道，出色的安全記錄是各級有效管理的明確標誌，我們正在採取實際措施，朝著實現行業級績效的目標邁進。

The right portion of the slide shows strong year-end fluidity and customer service performance. Velocity, cars online, dwell and trip plan compliance all showed substantial improvement from Q1 to Q4. These are encouraging trends as we enter 2026. Running a cost-effective, efficient network while delivering consistent, reliable service is essential to our success. We'll maintain this balance and preserve our operational momentum while ensuring CSX has the capacity available when the industrial cycle turns.

幻燈片的右側部分顯示了強勁的年末流動性和客戶服務表現。從第一季到第四季度，車速、線上車輛數、停留時間和行程計畫執行情況均有顯著改善。這些都是令人鼓舞的趨勢，預示著我們將邁入2026年。經營一個經濟高效且服務穩定可靠的網絡，對我們的成功至關重要。我們將保持這種平衡，維持營運勢頭，同時確保 CSX 在工業週期轉變時擁有足夠的運力。

Kevin will now review our quarterly results in more detail.

凱文接下來將更詳細地審查我們的季度業績報告。

Thank you, Mike, and good afternoon. I'm excited to be back in the CFO role and have an opportunity to work with this team. As Steve mentioned, over the last couple of months, we have taken steps to align our cost structure to the current business environment. The team is fully engaged, and I'm encouraged by the momentum we are building with opportunities to drive efficiencies in nearly every part of our business as we enter 2026. Now let's move to the fourth quarter results.

謝謝你，麥克，下午好。我很高興能重返財務長職位，並有機會與這個團隊合作。正如史蒂夫所提到的，在過去的幾個月裡，我們已經採取措施調整成本結構，以適應當前的商業環境。團隊全力以赴，我深受鼓舞，因為我們正努力創造機會，在進入 2026 年之際，提高我們業務幾乎每個環節的效率。現在我們來看第四季業績。

Volume increased 1% with revenue down 1%, driven by business mix headwinds and coal pricing. Fourth quarter operating income and earnings per share fell by 9% and 7%, respectively, against adjusted prior year figures. These results included approximately $50 million or $0.02 of charges for actions taken during the fourth quarter to optimize our workforce and technology portfolio. Now let's turn to the next slide for a closer look at the expense line. Fourth quarter expenses increased by $73 million or 3%, excluding the 2024 goodwill impairment.

受業務組合不利因素和煤炭價格上漲的影響，銷售量成長 1%，但營收下降 1%。與去年同期調整後的數據相比，第四季營業收入和每股收益分別下降了 9% 和 7%。這些結果包括第四季度為優化我們的員工隊伍和技術組合而採取的措施所產生的約 5,000 萬美元或 0.02 美元的費用。現在讓我們翻到下一張投影片，仔細看看費用項目。第四季支出增加了 7,300 萬美元，增幅為 3%，不包括 2024 年商譽減損。

As mentioned, the quarter included approximately $50 million of charges comprised of $31 million of separation costs in the labor line and $21 million of technology impairments in PS&O. We continue to see opportunities to drive efficiency in our labor costs as we prioritize safety, customer service and profitable growth. Ending rail headcount finished the quarter down over 3% as we continue to align to the current business environment.

如前所述，該季度包含約 5,000 萬美元的費用，其中包括勞動力部門的 3,100 萬美元分離成本和 PS&O 部門的 2,100 萬美元技術減損。我們始終將安全、客戶服務和獲利成長放在首位，並不斷尋找降低勞動成本效率的機會。由於我們持續調整以適應當前的商業環境，本季末鐵路部門員工人數下降超過 3%。

Additionally, overtime remains a focus for Mike's team as we look for ways to provide better visibility and tools to manage these costs. We have identified meaningful opportunities to reduce nonlabor spending with well over 100 diverse savings initiatives across the company, including cutting outside and professional service spend, improving asset utilization and maintenance efficiencies as well as enhancing controls around all sources of discretionary spend.

此外，加班仍然是麥克團隊關注的重點，我們正在尋找方法來提供更好的透明度和工具來管理這些成本。我們在公司內部發現了 100 多項不同的節約措施，為減少非勞動力支出提供了有意義的機會，包括削減外部和專業服務支出、提高資產利用率和維護效率，以及加強對所有可自由支配支出來源的控制。

2026 expenses will also see year over year benefit from cycling network disruption costs, third and fourth quarter separation costs and fourth quarter technology impairments. Depreciation expense will be relatively stable year-over-year as normal increases to the asset base are offset by favorable results from an equipment life study, asset retirements and targeted reductions to technology and aviation assets. We are encouraged by the cost improvements identified as we move through the quarter.

2026 年的支出也將因自行車網路中斷成本、第三季和第四季分離成本以及第四季技術減損而逐年受益。由於資產基礎的正常成長被設備壽命研究的有利結果、資產報廢以及對技術和航空資產的有針對性削減所抵消，折舊費用將逐年保持相對穩定。隨著季度推進，我們發現了一些成本方面的改善，這令我們感到鼓舞。

Similar to our focus on cost, capital spend and driving free cash flow remains a significant area of opportunity. Working with Mike and his team, we are developing improved oversight to ensure every dollar of capital is spent efficiently and aligns to our strategic priorities, including safety, customer service and driving profitable growth.

與我們關注成本類似，資本支出和推動自由現金流仍然是一個重要的機會領域。我們正在與麥克和他的團隊合作，制定更完善的監督機制，以確保每一美元的資金都能有效利用，並符合我們的策略重點，包括安全、客戶服務和推動獲利成長。

With that, I will turn it over to Maryclare to review our revenue results.

接下來，我將把工作交給瑪麗克萊爾，讓她來審查我們的營收。

Thank you, Kevin. I'm happy to be here and excited to have the opportunity to lead the professionals in our commercial organization. The railroad is running well, and we have many opportunities ahead. That said, as you've heard from Steve, we continue to navigate the challenges of a mixed industrial demand environment. The strength of our relationships is critical when uncertainty is elevated, and our voice of the customer surveys show that our team has been doing an excellent job at staying close to our customers and being responsive as conditions change.

謝謝你，凱文。我很高興來到這裡，也很興奮有機會領導我們商業組織中的專業團隊。鐵路運營狀況良好，我們未來有很多機會。也就是說，正如你從史蒂夫那裡聽到的，我們仍在應對混合工業需求環境帶來的挑戰。在不確定性加劇的情況下，我們與客戶關係的強度至關重要。我們的客戶調查顯示，我們的團隊在與客戶保持密切聯繫以及隨著情況變化做出快速回應方面做得非常出色。

Turning to slide 10. Let's cover fourth quarter volume and revenue performance. Overall, total volume was up 1% in the quarter, but revenue was down 1% as negative mix and weaker export coal prices led to a 2% decline in total revenue per unit. Our merchandise franchise, where volume and revenue were both down 2%, continues to face market-driven headwinds. Revenue per unit was modestly higher and was also affected by mix as growth was strongest in low RPU areas such as minerals and fertilizers.

翻到第10張投影片。讓我們來看看第四季的銷售和營收表現。總體而言，本季總銷量成長了 1%，但由於不利的產品組合和疲軟的出口煤炭價格導致單位總收入下降了 2%，因此收入下降了 1%。我們的商品特許經營業務，銷售和收入均下降了 2%，繼續面臨市場驅動的不利因素。單位收入略有成長，同時也受到產品組合的影響，因為成長在單位收入較低的領域（如礦產和化肥）最為強勁。

We continue to see softness in chemicals and forest products, where volume was down 6% and 11%, respectively. The industrial chemicals market remains weak, and many of our customers are carefully controlling freight spend as they manage through inflation and tariff pressures. In Forest Products, we continue to see the effects of plant closures, particularly with pulp and containerboard that occurred up until the start of the fourth quarter. Despite these headwinds, our team has had success at winning incremental business, and we anticipate benefits from new facilities ramping up in 2026. Automotive volume was down 5% year over year.

化工產品和林產品市場依然疲軟，銷量分別下降了 6% 和 11%。工業化學品市場依然疲軟，許多客戶在應對通膨和關稅壓力的同時，都在謹慎控制貨運支出。在林產品領域，我們繼續看到工廠關閉的影響，特別是紙漿和箱板紙方面，這種情況一直持續到第四季度初。儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們的團隊在贏得增量業務方面取得了成功，我們預計隨著新設施在 2026 年投入使用，我們將從中受益。汽車銷量較去年同期下降5%。

While we saw some manufacturers gain momentum through the quarter, supply constraints with chips and metals limited output at other facilities. That said, we've been encouraged by the continued strength in fertilizers and minerals shipments. Fertilizer volume was up 7% on improved phosphate rock production and business wins in the nitrogen market. Minerals volume remains supported by demand for aggregates and cement for infrastructure projects. Our intermodal franchise really drove our growth this quarter with revenue up 7% year over year on a 5% increase in volume.

雖然我們看到一些製造商在本季度獲得了發展勢頭，但晶片和金屬的供應限制限制了其他工廠的產量。儘管如此，化肥和礦產出貨量的持續強勁成長還是令我們感到鼓舞。由於磷礦石產量提高以及在氮肥市場贏得訂單，化肥銷量增加了 7%。基礎設施項目對骨材和水泥的需求持續支撐著礦產交易量。本季度，我們的多式聯運業務真正推動了我們的成長，營收年增 7%，貨運量成長 5%。

We've been winning new domestic and international business as we brought faster transit times and more connectivity to our customers. Finally, our coal business grew modestly in the quarter with volume up 1% year-over-year. Domestic tonnage increased by 6%, driven by a substantial increase in domestic utility volume, supported by growing power demand and higher natural gas prices. Export tonnage declined 3% in the quarter with the derailment in late October impacting shipments for a short time. Revenue was down 5% on a 6% decline in RPU, primarily due to a decline in met coal benchmark pricing.

我們為客戶帶來了更快的運輸時間和更便捷的連接，從而贏得了新的國內和國際業務。最後，本季我們的煤炭業務實現了小幅成長，銷量年增 1%。受國內公用事業用量大幅成長的推動，國內噸位增加了 6%，而國內公用事業用量的成長又得益於電力需求的成長和天然氣價格的上漲。受 10 月下旬發生的脫軌事故影響，本季出口噸位下降了 3%，該事故對貨物運輸造成了短暫影響。由於冶金煤基準價格下跌，導致 RPU 下降 6%，收入下降 5%。

Notably, the discount for East Coast met coal indices widened versus Australian pricing this quarter, which impacted our yields. Now let's turn to slide 11 and talk about the key components of our market expectations in 2026. Starting with merchandise, we are positioned to benefit from consistent strength in infrastructure project activity in key regions served by CSX that's driving demand for materials such as cement, aggregates, plate and scrap metal.

值得注意的是，本季東岸冶金煤指數相對於澳洲價格的折價幅度擴大，影響了我們的收益率。現在讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片，談談我們對 2026 年市場預期的主要組成部分。從商品方面來看，CSX 服務的主要地區基礎設施專案活動持續強勁，推動了對水泥、骨材、板材和廢金屬等材料的需求，我們有望從中受益。

More uncertain are conditions in the housing and automotive markets, which affect many commodity markets. Consensus forecasts call for modest decline in housing starts this next year and affordability and overall demand levels continue to impact the prospects for North American light vehicle production.

房屋和汽車市場的狀況更加不確定，而這些市場會影響許多大宗商品市場。普遍預測認為，明年房屋開工量將小幅下降，而住房可負擔性和整體需求水準將繼續影響北美輕型汽車生產的前景。

Our merchandise volumes will also reflect cycling of facility closures, largely in the forest products and metals areas that occurred through 2025. We've been encouraged by the success we've had in Intermodal, where the team won new business in 2025 as we expanded our network reach through new operational agreements and our strong service has allowed us to provide a faster service product.

我們的商品銷售也將反映出設施關閉的周期性變化，主要發生在林產品和金屬領域，這種情況將持續到 2025 年。我們在多式聯運領域的成功令人鼓舞，團隊在 2025 年贏得了新業務，透過新的營運協議擴大了網路覆蓋範圍，我們強大的服務使我們能夠提供更快捷的服務產品。

At Howard Street, the first of two bridges being raised to support double stack capability is now complete, and our customers are excited about the opportunities coming later this spring. They're bidding on business now for volume to start moving double stack through the tunnel in Q2. Still, the markets reflect the reality of a still soft trucking market, where we're watching the supply-driven increase in truck rates carefully.

在霍華德街，為支持雙層貨櫃堆場而抬升的兩座橋樑中的第一座已經完工，我們的客戶對今年春天晚些時候即將到來的機會感到興奮。他們現在正在競標業務，爭取在第二季開始透過隧道運輸雙層堆疊貨物。不過，市場反映出卡車運輸市場仍然疲軟的現實，我們正密切關注由供應驅動的卡車運費上漲。

We also need to be aware of the risk of a slowdown in imports after the pull forward of activity that occurred through 2025. For coal, we're pleased to have two important mines on our network back open after extended outages. These mines provide good quality met coal for the export market, so global steel markets and benchmark prices remain subdued. Domestically, many utilities continue to buy more thermal coal given increasing power demand. We do have coal plants on our network scheduled to retire this year, but we have seen some closures get delayed.

我們也需要意識到，在 2025 年經濟活動提前結束後，進口成長放緩的風險。對於煤炭方面，我們很高興看到我們網路中的兩座重要煤礦在長時間停產後重新開放。這些礦山為出口市場提供優質冶金煤，因此全球鋼鐵市場和基準價格仍然低迷。國內方面，鑑於電力需求不斷增長，許多電力公司繼續購買更多的動力煤。我們電網中確實有一些燃煤電廠計劃在今年退役，但我們發現有些電廠的關閉被推遲了。

Overall, we see good potential in 2026, but we expect the best results will come from our own specific initiatives. Our visibility is limited, but from what we can see and hear from our customers today, there's no short-term catalyst on the horizon to lift the major industrial markets. Our team will work hard to make the most of every profitable opportunity and we will be ready to respond when macro conditions improve. Now

整體而言，我們認為 2026 年具有良好的發展潛力，但我們預期最好的結果將來自我們自己的具體舉措。我們的視野有限，但從我們今天從客戶看到和聽到的情況來看，短期內沒有任何催化劑可以提振主要的工業市場。我們的團隊將努力把握每一個獲利機會，並隨時準備在宏觀經濟環境改善時做出反應。現在

I'll hand it back to Steve to talk through our outlook.

我會把話題交還給史蒂夫，讓他和我們討論我們的展望。

Thank you, Maryclare. Now we'll review our guidance for 2026 on slide 13. We have a well-running railroad and a good pipeline of growth initiatives. However, as Maryclare discussed, the near-term outlook across many key markets remain soft. As we plan for 2026, we do not anticipate any meaningful improvement in macroeconomic conditions.

謝謝你，瑪麗克萊爾。現在我們將在第 13 頁回顧 2026 年的指導方針。我們擁有運作良好的鐵路系統和一系列良好的成長計劃。然而，正如瑪麗克萊爾所討論的那樣，許多主要市場的近期前景仍然疲軟。在規劃 2026 年時，我們預期宏觀經濟狀況不會有任何實質改善。

So we are assuming low single-digit revenue growth for the year based on flat industrial production, modest GDP growth and fuel and benchmark coal prices consistent with current levels. We expect to deliver year-over-year operating margin expansion in the range of 200 to 300 basis points. This is from a combination of workforce optimization, tighter management of discretionary expenses, our drive for efficiency and the benefits of a more stable, fluid railroad.

因此，我們假設今年的營收成長率將維持在個位數低位，這是基於工業生產持平、GDP溫和成長以及燃料和基準煤炭價格與目前水準一致的假設。我們預計營業利潤率將年增 200 至 300 個基點。這是得益於勞動力優化、更嚴格地管理可自由支配的開支、我們對效率的追求以及更穩定、更順暢的鐵路運營所帶來的益處等多方面因素的綜合作用。

With our Blue Ridge project complete and focused efforts on capital discipline in place, we plan for 2026 CapEx below $2.4 billion, a substantial reduction from last year. Our CapEx priorities are unchanged, invest in our infrastructure for safety and reliability and invest in growth and productivity projects that pass our financial criteria.

隨著藍嶺專案竣工，以及資本紀律的重點落實，我們計劃 2026 年資本支出低於 24 億美元，比去年大幅減少。我們的資本支出重點不變，投資於安全可靠的基礎設施，並投資於符合我們財務標準的成長和生產力提升項目。

For free cash flow, higher earnings, a more normalized cash tax rate and lower capital outlays should drive growth of at least 50% compared to 2025. Finally, let me address the multiyear targets that were offered at the company's 2024 Investor Day. The opportunities ahead for CSX are strong. When we execute on the core fundamentals of service, cost discipline, operating efficiency and prudent capital deployment, we will create shareholder value over the long term. That said, the macroeconomic environment and the industry dynamics were meaningfully different than compared to today.

自由現金流、更高的收益、更正常的現金稅率和更低的資本支出應該會推動成長，與 2025 年相比成長至少 50%。最後，我想談談公司在 2024 年投資者日上提出的多年目標。CSX公司未來發展前景廣闊。當我們貫徹服務、成本控制、營運效率和審慎的資本部署等核心基本原則時，我們將為股東創造長期價值。儘管如此，當時的宏觀經濟環境和產業動態與今天相比有著顯著的不同。

I am replacing our 2025, 2027 targets with the guidance we've given for 2026 only. I will continue to evaluate our outlook as we make progress toward our goal to be the best-performing railroad in North America.

我將用我們針對 2026 年給予的指導方針來取代我們 2025 年和 2027 年的目標。隨著我們朝著成為北美業績最佳的鐵路公司這一目標不斷邁進，我將繼續評估我們的前景。

With that, Matthew, we will open it up for questions.

接下來，馬修，我們將開放提問環節。

Thank you, Steve. We will now proceed with the question-and-answer session. Now to ensure that we maximize everyone's opportunity to participate, we ask that you please limit yourselves to one and only one question. Sarah, with that, we're ready to begin.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。現在我們將進入問答環節。為了確保每個人都有最大的參與機會，請各位只提一個問題。莎拉，那麼，我們就可以開始了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

Great. Just I guess one fine point on the OR improvement, if you could tell us what the base OR is in '25, kind of just like what's included. But I guess the real question, if you will, how do you think about pricing and price/cost spread? I think, Steve, focus on price and productivity are kind of two hallmarks of your approach. How do you think about the opportunity to have some traction on the price initiatives and see pricing above cost inflation in 2026?

偉大的。關於 OR 改進，我還有一個小問題，您能否告訴我們 '25 年的基本 OR 是什麼，例如它包含哪些內容？但我想問的真正問題是，您如何看待定價和價格/成本差？我認為，史蒂夫，注重價格和生產力是你的方法的兩個顯著特徵。您如何看待在價格策略方面取得一些進展，並在 2026 年實現價格高於成本通膨的機會？

Yeah. Tom, on the base, the starting point for 2025 is obviously ex the charge that we took on goodwill. So that's the starting point that we have in the adjusted number that we disclosed.

是的。湯姆，從基地來看，2025 年的起點顯然是我們出於善意所承擔的費用。所以，這就是我們公佈的調整後數字的起點。

And on your questions on price and productivity. So as we think about price, I mean, certainly, you would like to be able to cover the cost of inflation in any given year and actually do better than that. In terms of kind of where we are in the pricing initiatives, Maryclare has taken the ball on that and has already put some new structures in place that I think are definitely going to help in terms of our price yield.

關於您提出的關於價格和生產力的問題。所以當我們考慮價格時，我的意思是，當然，你肯定希望能夠彌補任何一年的通膨成本，並且實際上做得更好。就定價策略而言，Maryclare 已經率先行動，並建立了一些新的結構，我認為這肯定會有助於提高我們的價格收益率。

As we look at what we have in the plan for 2026 versus 2025, price yield will be higher in 2026 over 2025 than it was in 2025 over 2024. So we're making progress, I think, on the pricing front. It will be a bit slow going, but I think we'll continue to make progress as we work harder on the whole price management equation.

當我們檢視 2026 年與 2025 年的計畫時，2026 年的價格收益率將高於 2025 年，而 2025 年的價格收益率又高於 2024 年。我認為，我們在定價方面取得了進展。雖然進展會比較緩慢，但我相信隨著我們更努力地研究整體價格管理方案，我們會繼續取得進展。

And in terms of these contracts have a roll off in certain time frames that would probably take until about this time next year before we had a chance to touch every contract and stress test, if you will, in terms of what the right price is versus the value we're bringing to that customer.

就這些合約而言，它們會在一定的時間範圍內到期，這可能要等到明年這個時候，我們才有機會逐一審查每一份合同，並進行壓力測試，以確定合適的價格與我們為客戶帶來的價值之間的關係。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

Brian Ossenbeck，摩根大通。

So maybe one for Kevin. In the 200 to 300 basis points guidance for improvement, can you give us some qualification, how much of that you think is already baked in based on some of the onetime items or the things you know are rolling off? And sort of what are you expecting for inflation within that guide? Because if you look at the AII-LF Index, for example, that's starting to pick up a bit here. So maybe give us a little bit more color in terms of the building blocks there and sort of what's already spoken for and what are the assumptions underlying the rest of it?

所以，也許凱文會喜歡這個。在 200 到 300 個基點的改進指導中，您能否給出一些限定條件，您認為其中有多少是基於一些一次性項目或您知道正在逐步取消的項目而實現的？那麼，你預期該指南中對通膨會有怎樣的預測呢？例如，如果你看 AII-LF 指數，你會發現它開始稍微回升。所以，能否請您更詳細地介紹其中的組成部分，以及已經確定的內容，還有其餘部分所依據的假設？

Yeah. No, when you look at some of the unique charges that occurred in 2025 between the severance, the technology write-off that we disclosed as well as some of the costs related to the Blue Ridge and Howard Street Tunnel, you could roughly assume those are about $150 million. What we're doing, what our guidance implies is a much greater initiative around productivity and a big focus across the organization to drive that. And so you'll see our productivity numbers, if you do the math, have a fairly significant increase and step up. When we think about what's happening on the inflation side on our labor side, that's pretty self-explanatory on the union side.

是的。不，當你查看 2025 年發生的一些特殊費用，包括遣散費、我們披露的技術減值以及與藍嶺和霍華德街隧道相關的一些成本時，你可以大致估計這些費用約為 1.5 億美元。我們正在做的，我們的指導方針所暗示的，是圍繞生產力開展一項更大的舉措，並在整個組織內大力推動這一舉措。因此，如果你計算一下，你會發現我們的生產力數據有了相當大的成長，而且有所提升。當我們思考通貨膨脹和勞動市場方面發生的事情時，工會方面的情況就很容易理解了。

The industry has obviously embedded labor inflation. Next year, you'll see another wage increase in the 3.75% range. We're also experiencing a little bit of more health care inflation going into '26 versus '25. So I would say on the labor side, that's pretty consistent with what we saw last year, maybe a little bit higher than last year. And then on the nonlabor side, a lot of efforts by the procurement team and others to drive that a little bit lower. So we expect a little bit lower inflation on the nonlabor side. So overall, I would look at inflation probably being in that 3% to 3.5% range.

該行業顯然已經將勞動成本通膨內化於內。明年，薪資將再次上漲，漲幅約 3.75%。與 2025 年相比，2026 年我們也感受到醫療通膨略有上升。所以我覺得，就勞動方面而言，這和我們去年看到的情況相當一致，可能比去年略高一些。在非勞動成本方面，採購團隊和其他人員做了很多努力，以期將成本降低一些。因此，我們預期非勞動成本方面的通膨會略低一些。所以總的來說，我認為通貨膨脹率可能會在 3% 到 3.5% 之間。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

The low single-digit revenue growth for the year, any just sort of rough thoughts on volume versus yield in that? And then maybe, Steve, just bigger picture, like the guide this year, I guess, implies like a [64 to 65] OR. Now that you've been here a few months, do you have a feel for like what you think the longer-term operating ratio should be? Should this be a sub-60 OR railroad in the next few years? Or not -- is that -- I don't know how should we think about that?

今年營收成長率僅為個位數，對於銷售與收益率之間的關係，您有什麼粗略的看法嗎？然後，史蒂夫，也許從更宏觀的角度來看，就像今年的指南一樣，我猜，暗示著[64到65] OR。你來這裡幾個月了，你對長期營運比率應該是多少有了一些想法嗎？未來幾年內，這條鐵路的運行速度會低於 60 英里/小時嗎？或者不是——是嗎——我不知道我們該怎麼看待這個問題？

Scott, this is Maryclare. I'll take the first part. So I think as we think about next year, we're looking at modest volume growth going into the year. I covered some of the macro environment that we're seeing out there. And while we're optimistic about certain areas and we see growth opportunities in places like intermodal, places where you see infrastructure investment like our minerals markets.

斯科特，這位是瑪麗克萊爾。我來回答第一部分。所以我認為，展望明年，我們預計銷量將實現溫和成長。我介紹了一些我們目前看到的宏觀環境因素。雖然我們對某些領域持樂觀態度，並且看到了多式聯運等領域的成長機會，以及像礦產市場這樣需要基礎設施投資的領域。

And I think there's some potential on the domestic utility side when you think about the need for power generation as well as natural gas prices are, those are kind of more positives for us. But then as I talked about, when you look at more of the industrial economy, we still see a lot of headwinds out there. So at this point, we'd say really modest volume growth next year.

我認為，考慮到發電需求以及天然氣價格，國內公用事業方面存在一些潛力，這對我們來說是比較積極的因素。但正如我剛才所說，當你更多地審視工業經濟時，我們仍然會看到很多不利因素。所以目前來看，我們認為明年銷售成長將非常溫和。

Yeah. And on the -- I'll just talk in terms of operating margin percent. Look, we want to expand it every year. And if we're doing the right things on price management and productivity, we will be able to do that. And I have confidence in this team.

是的。至於──我就用營業利益率來談談吧。你看，我們希望每年都能擴大規模。如果我們採取正確的價格管理和生產力提升措施，我們就能做到這一點。我對這支隊伍充滿信心。

I have confidence in our ability to build solid productivity programs to be able to grow operating margin a certain percent every year, and I could give you a number now, but I think I'll wait and talk about that later. But the objective is best-in-class performance. And you know what that is with respect to operating margin. I know what that is. I have confidence we can get there.

我對我們有能力建立穩固的生產力提升計劃，從而每年實現營業利潤率一定百分比的成長充滿信心。我現在就可以給你一個具體的數字，但我認為還是等以後再談比較好。但目標是達到同類最佳性能。你知道這對營業利潤率意味著什麼。我知道那是什麼。我相信我們一定能做到。

The question is over what time frame, we'll make progress every year. What I would like to do, I mean, we have a very solid plan, as Kevin described, and we put a ton of time into building this plan for the environment that we're facing and to make sure we could deliver an outcome that we would be proud of. So that's where we are.

問題是，在多長時間內，我們每年都能進步。我想做的，我的意思是，我們有一個非常完善的計劃，正如凱文所描述的那樣，我們投入了大量時間來製定這個計劃，以應對我們所面臨的環境，並確保我們能夠取得讓我們引以為豪的成果。這就是我們目前的處境。

But what I would like to see over the course of time is how well we can execute to those plans. I have confidence we can, but I'd like to experience that a few quarters, if you will, just so I can get grounded and confident in our ability to build, I'll call it, sustainable productivity over time. And I think we can do that, but give me a little time to get more confident in our ability to do that.

但我希望隨著時間的推移，能看到我們能否好好地執行這些計畫。我相信我們能做到，但我希望先體驗幾個季度，這樣我才能腳踏實地，對我們能否隨著時間的推移建立起可持續的生產力充滿信心。我認為我們可以做到，但請給我一點時間，讓我對我們能夠做到這一點更有信心。

Ariel Rosa, Citigroup.

Ariel Rosa，花旗集團。

So we're looking at -- I apologize because this is a little bit short term, but we're looking at potentially a pretty nasty storm coming up. Not too long ago, we saw CSX's network face a pretty big setback given some storms. I'm curious, maybe Mike is the best one to answer this question. Just how are you preparing for the storm? And how do we get confidence?

所以，我們預計——很抱歉，這只是一個短期消息，但我們預計接下來可能會有一場非常嚴重的風暴。不久前，由於一些風暴，我們看到 CSX 的鐵路網遭受了相當大的挫折。我很好奇，也許麥克是回答這個問題的最佳人選。你們是如何面對這場風暴的？我們如何獲得自信？

Maybe it's an opportunity to talk about kind of how you're running the network differently now versus, say, 12 to 18 months ago. But what are the risks that these types of events could present setbacks? And how do we get comfortable that this isn't going to be a big obstacle in Q1?

也許這是一個機會，可以談談你現在經營網路的方式與 12 到 18 個月前相比有何不同。但這類事件可能會帶來哪些風險和挫折？我們如何確信這不會成為第一季的一大障礙？

Sure. Thanks for the question, Ariel. As we've said, like the network is going into this in much better condition than last year when we started facing storms. So just to give you just a view of what we see, we're going to see ice on our southern portion of our network basically going from Nashville right across through Alabama through Georgia. And then in the middle section of our network, we're going to experience or we see right now from the weather reports, we're going to experience heavy snow right from Indiana through Kentucky, right across PA, Western Maryland, Virginia, all the way up the I-95.

當然。謝謝你的提問，艾瑞爾。正如我們所說，目前網路狀況比去年開始遭遇風暴時要好得多。為了讓大家了解我們看到的情況，我們將看到我們網路南部部分區域結冰，基本上從納許維爾一直延伸到阿拉巴馬州和喬治亞州。然後，在我們網絡的中間部分，我們將經歷，或者從天氣預報來看，我們將經歷大雪，從印第安納州到肯塔基州，橫跨賓夕法尼亞州、馬裡蘭州西部、弗吉尼亞州，一直到 I-95 號州際公路沿線。

So in terms of precautions, here's some real detail. I mean we're going to have senior coverage right around the clock in all of our key areas, including our network center, -- we've got -- we've gone over from snow clearing to tree clearing, generators, everything that we need in each location, each facility that we see the storm coming through. We've modified our operating plan, working with our customers, notifying them because they're going to have the same conditions that really assets for us right now are going to be the most crucial thing that we protect. At the same time, we expect to see power outages, highway closures. We're going to see cold right after that.

所以，在預防措施方面，這裡有一些細節。我的意思是，我們將在所有關鍵區域，包括我們的網路中心，全天候提供老年人服務——我們已經——我們已經從清雪到清理樹木，準備了發電機，每個地點、每個設施在暴風雪來臨之前所需的一切。我們已經修改了營運計劃，與客戶合作並通知他們，因為他們將面臨相同的情況，對我們來說，目前資產是我們最需要保護的東西。同時，我們預期會出現停電和高速公路封閉的情況。之後我們會迎來寒冷天氣。

So I do not see us coming out of this probably for a few days. If we get it Sunday, we're looking at midweek to recover. But I'm very confident, especially with the condition that we're going in, that we will come through this with no issues. This is not going to lead us into four months of trouble like it did the year before. Even if there is some consecutiveness to it, we have everything in place. And what we learned last year, we're putting into effect throughout the beginning and right through this storm.

所以我認為我們可能還要過幾天才能擺脫困境。如果我們週日感染，那我們可能要到周中才能恢復。但我非常有信心，尤其是在我們目前所處的條件下，我們一定能夠順利度過難關。這不會像去年那樣帶給我們長達四個月的麻煩。即使其中存在一些連續性，我們也已經做好了一切準備。而我們去年學到的經驗，我們將在風暴開始之初以及整個風暴期間付諸實踐。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊銀行。

And I guess, Mike, it's not shocking that it snows in January. So I'd ask maybe more importantly, like how are you approaching operations differently this year, especially with like new leadership concepts at the company? How do you get back to those best-in-class metrics that the railroad had three or four years ago?

我想，麥克，一月下雪並不奇怪。所以我想問一個更重要的問題，例如今年你們在營運方面有哪些不同的做法，尤其是在公司引進新的領導理念之後？如何才能恢復到鐵路公司三、四年前所擁有的那些一流指標？

Yeah. No, thanks for the question. I think you can see by the metrics we have now, we're running as good as we have three or four years ago. But really, I mean, it's a focus on asset utilization. It's a focus on oversight and to the key measures that we look at every day.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問。我認為從我們目前的各項指標可以看出，我們的營運狀況和三、四年前一樣好。但實際上，我的意思是，重點在於資產利用率。它側重於監督以及我們每天都在關注的關鍵指標。

Really, that's what we've done. What we learned through that exercise was to make sure that we take action as soon as we can on the issues that are preventing us from being fluid. And that's from making sure that we don't bring equipment in when we shouldn't. It's making sure we have our excess equipment in places to be able to respond to issues we have. And that's generally what we did to come out of the second quarter issue -- first and second quarter issues we've had. But I don't see us really failing on the storm coming up. I appreciate your concern, but we're ready for it. And again, I see us coming through it very well.

事實上，我們就是這麼做的。我們從那次練習中學到的是，確保我們盡快採取行動，解決那些阻礙我們行動流暢的問題。這是因為我們確保不會在不應該帶設備的時候帶進來。這是為了確保我們在需要的地方備有備用設備，以便能夠應對我們遇到的問題。這就是我們解決第二季問題——以及我們遇到的第一季和第二季問題——的一般方法。但我認為我們不會真的在即將到來的風暴中失敗。感謝您的關心，但我們已經做好準備了。而且，我認為我們一定能順利度過難關。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

So Kevin, it sounds like a lot of programs. I think you mentioned 100 different ones. But just so we don't get lost in kind of minutia, can you maybe talk dollar amounts for buckets so we can, I don't know, track something. Is there workforce optimization or a headcount target? Anything from Mike Cory on the op savings?

凱文，聽起來有很多項目啊。我想你提到了100種不同的例子。但為了避免陷入細節，您能否談談每個桶的金額，以便我們能夠，比如說，跟踪一些事情。是否有人員優化方案或設定人員編製目標？Mike Cory 關於營運成本節約方面有什麼消息嗎？

And Kevin, you mentioned nonlabor spending. Maybe you could just maybe parse that out a little bit. So -- because if we've got very low volume growth, very low pricing growth, how do we get that 200 to 300 margin basis points? I guess you take out maybe 100 basis points or so from the $100 million that you spent this year. But if you can bucket size some of that stuff to help us walk through and what to expect.

凱文，你提到了非勞動力支出。或許你可以稍微解釋一下。所以——因為如果我們銷售成長非常慢，價格成長也非常慢，我們如何才能獲得 200 到 300 個基點的利潤率？我猜你從今年花費的 1 億美元中扣除大約 100 個基點。但如果你能把其中的一些內容歸納總結一下，幫助我們了解情況和預期結果就太好了。

Yeah. When you look at the majority of the productivity, that you obviously can solve for after the $150 million that I pointed out that naturally just comes out, that won't repeat in 2026. It's very, very highly focused on the labor line and the PS&O line. And so a lot of activity in those two areas, I would say, largely equally divided. You'll probably see on an absolute basis, an absolute dollar basis, more come out of the PS&O line because you're going to have less inflation, core inflation in that line versus the labor, which I talked about a little bit earlier, given, obviously, our union labor contracts and what we're seeing on the medical side on that area.

是的。當你審視大部分生產力問題時，你會發現，在扣除我指出的 1.5 億美元之後，這些問題顯然是可以解決的，而這筆錢自然而然就會花出去，但這種情況在 2026 年不會重演。它非常非常專注於勞動市場和PS&O市場。因此，我認為這兩個領域的活動非常活躍，而且大致勢均力敵。你可能會看到，從絕對值（以美元計）來看，PS&O 線的漲幅更大，因為該線的核心通膨率會低於勞動力市場，我之前稍微談到過這一點，這顯然是因為我們的工會勞動合約以及我們在醫療領域看到的情況。

But those are the areas. We're certainly focused on driving cost improvement across the line items. Depreciation, more or less, will be in the flat range as we pointed out. And then certainly some areas of improvement. Mike will always tell you on the fuel side, we're looking for every opportunity to continue to get more fuel efficient.

但這些就是相關區域。我們當然會致力於在各個專案上降低成本。正如我們之前指出的，折舊額將基本保持穩定。當然，還有一些需要改進的地方。麥克總是會告訴你，在燃料方面，我們正在尋找一切機會來繼續提高燃料效率。

And then on the rent side, there's some opportunity as we run better, certainly from a car hire and other areas that we expect to drive improvement there, too. So the good news is a diversified portfolio of opportunities. I guess the bad news on that side is we've got to stay very, very focused across all these areas to make sure that we're capitalizing on those. And my full expectation as we move into -- later into this month in February and March, we're going to come up with an additional list that will obviously, hopefully, drive further improvement in the back half of the year and then create some opportunities as we move into 2027.

在租金方面，隨著我們營運狀況的改善，也存在一些機會，尤其是在汽車租賃和其他我們預計會推動業務改善的領域。所以好消息是，投資機會多元化。我想，這方面的壞消息是，我們必須在所有這些領域保持高度專注，以確保我們充分利用這些優勢。我完全預期，隨著我們進入二月和三月，我們將提出一份額外的清單，這顯然有望推動下半年的進一步改進，並在我們邁入 2027 年時創造一些機會。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

Stephanie Moore，傑富瑞集團。

I think I would be a bit remiss not to ask at least about the major merger that is underway for this industry. If you could maybe talk about how you are positioning the company in the wake of what could be a pretty transformational deal. So in the near term, while it's under review, what are the opportunities that you all can take advantage of? And then, of course, I'm sure you're also having to somewhat scenario analyze what would be like if the deal is approved. And in that way, what is the strategy for CSX as kind of this whole East Coast merger -- East Coast Rail?

我認為，如果我不至少詢問這個行業正在進行的大規模併購案，那就有點失職了。能否請您談談，在這次可能具有重大變革意義的交易之後，貴公司將如何定位自己？那麼在短期內，也就是審查期間，大家可以利用哪些機會呢？當然，我相信你肯定也需要對如果交易獲得批准會發生什麼情況進行一些情境分析。那麼，CSX 作為整個東海岸鐵路合併案（東海岸鐵路）的戰略是什麼？

(inaudible) made a call, it took three years before the final restriction was lifted. So for three years, we were kind of in deal purgatory. And what you have to do is make sure that you're running the business the best your ability every day. And that's kind of the key in this process. I don't know what conditions are going to be required for approval.

（聽不清楚）打了個電話，花了三年才終於解除限制。所以，有三年時間，我們一直處於交易僵局之中。而你要做的就是確保你每天都盡你所能把生意經營到最好。而這正是這個過程的關鍵。我不知道獲得批准需要滿足哪些條件。

That remains to be seen. I think this is a long process, and we'll find out what that is. And then when you get to the end of that, the -- if the merger is approved, you still have to execute. So I think it's a long process. As I said, there are going to be opportunities we can take advantage of. We see some today that we're taking advantage of. Whatever risks are out there, we'll certainly manage those. We'll mitigate those. We'll have plans for those. As the time comes forward for us to make our case to the appropriate authorities, we'll certainly be prepared to do that.

這一點還有待觀察。我認為這將是一個漫長的過程，我們會弄清楚它到底是什麼過程。然後到了最後，如果合併獲得批准，你仍然需要執行。所以我認為這將是一個漫長的過程。正如我所說，我們會遇到一些可以抓住的機會。我們現在看到了一些我們正在利用的機會。無論存在什麼風險，我們一定會妥善應對。我們會減輕這些影響。我們會為此制定計劃。當需要我們向有關當局陳述案情的時候，我們一定會做好準備。

And then the focus is just making sure that we can be as competitive as we can be. But at the end of the day, we can create value by running CSX better every day. So you can set the merger aside, we're going to manage that. We're going to work through that. We're going to have many, many quarters to talk about that probably. But what we know we can do now is run this company better every day, and we feel really good about our ability to do that.

然後，我們的重點就是確保我們能夠盡可能地保持競爭力。但歸根結底，我們可以透過每天更好地經營 CSX 來創造價值。所以你們可以先把合併的事放在一邊，我們會處理好的。我們會解決這個問題。我們可能需要很多很多個季度的時間來討論這個問題。但我們現在知道我們可以做的是每天更好地經營這家公司，我們對自己能夠做到這一點感到非常有信心。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

Jonathan Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Kevin, maybe Maryclare, can you just help us a little bit with coal RPU? It feels like the way that we're calculating it now is a little bit different than the last several years. And what are you thinking about is baked into that revenue growth? Do we see -- and this is from both a 1Q and a full year perspective. Is it kind of stabilized from this 4Q exit rate? Or is there some improvement baked into what's a very important yield line item?

Kevin，或是 Maryclare，你們能不能幫我們處理煤炭 RPU 的問題？感覺我們現在的計算方式與過去幾年略有不同。你認為營收成長背後蘊含著什麼？我們是否看到——這是從第一季和全年兩個角度來看的。從第四季的退出率來看，情況是否已經趨於穩定？或者說，在非常重要的產量指標中是否蘊含著一些改進措施？

Yeah. So it's Maryclare. I'd say as we think about RPU going forward, there's always a mix element that comes into our business. And so as I think about going into 2026, I talked about some of the markets that we feel a little bit better about as well as ones that we see more risk. And so intermodal, we feel good about.

是的。所以是瑪麗克萊爾。我認為，當我們展望 RPU 的未來時，我們的業務中總是會存在一些混合因素。因此，在展望 2026 年時，我談到了一些我們感覺比較樂觀的市場，以及一些我們認為風險較大的市場。因此，我們對多式聯運感到滿意。

When you think about some of our merchandise side of the business, we see some impacts there of probably stronger growth in some of our lower RPU business like minerals and fertilizers and more softness in some of our higher RPU business when you think about our Forest Products business or our chemicals business, talk a little bit more about next year. We've got overlaps that we saw closures over the course of 2025, quite a few of that in our Forest Products line of business. We see auto down next year from a North American light vehicle production perspective. And we also have a large plant on our network that will be down over the course of next year. So that will certainly impact where we see volume growth versus decline, and that comes into play.

從我們商品業務的角度來看，一些低 RPU 業務（如礦產和化肥）可能會出現更強勁的成長，而一些高 RPU 業務（如林產品業務或化學品業務）則可能出現更疲軟的成長。請再談談明年的情況。我們看到，在 2025 年期間，部分業務將關閉，其中相當一部分是我們的林產品業務線。從北美輕型汽車產量的角度來看，我們預計明年汽車產業整體水準將下降。此外，我們網路中還有一座大型工廠將在明年停駛。因此，這肯定會影響我們看到的銷售成長與下降的趨勢，而這一點也確實會產生影響。

I would tell you, Steve spoke earlier about how we're thinking about pricing. We've had a lot of conversations there. We've looked at our processes and controls, and Mike is delivering a really good service product right now and customers value that. And so we're going to take that into account as we think about going forward. And you also know there's a portion of our business that we can touch every year. So that will impact from a timing perspective.

我可以告訴你，史蒂夫之前談到了我們對定價的看法。我們在那裡進行過很多次談話。我們已經審視了我們的流程和控制措施，Mike 目前提供的服務產品非常出色，客戶也對此表示讚賞。因此，我們在考慮未來發展方向時，會將這一點考慮在內。而且你也知道，我們每年都能觸及到我們業務的某個部分。所以這會對時間安排產生影響。

Yeah. And I'll just add on the coal RPU, just as a headline, we went through a year where we're lapping some pretty difficult comps, and that will be largely -- we'll be through that by the first quarter on that side. So we'll see a lot more stable, maybe slightly down. But again, that to Maryclare's point, it's a lot about mix. And obviously, with a stronger Southern utility demand, that is helpful as well given the length of haul.

是的。我再補充一下煤炭 RPU 的情況，作為重點，我們經歷了一年來一些非常艱難的比較，這種情況將在很大程度上——我們將在第一季結束前擺脫這種局面。所以我們將會看到更加穩定，或許會略有下降。但正如瑪麗克萊爾所說，關鍵在於混合。顯然，考慮到運輸距離，南方公用事業需求的增強也有幫助。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Maybe I want to come back to a question I was asked earlier in the call and maybe think about it a little bit differently. I guess, Steve, you talked about best-in-class. And when you think about it from a margin perspective, we kind of know where the benchmarks are. CSX was there probably 5 or 6 years ago for a few years. And I know things are different, mix is different.

也許我想回到之前通話中被問到的一個問題，換個角度思考。我想，史蒂夫，你剛才談到了同類最佳。從利潤率的角度來看，我們大概知道基準在哪裡。CSX公司大概在五、六年前在那裡經營過幾年。我知道情況不同了，混合方式也不同了。

There are some other dynamics in the market relative to them. But I guess as you've been there for 3-plus months now and had a chance to kind of think about the business, is there anything meaningful that you see that would sort of prevent the ability to get back to those levels, whether you think about sort of the different customer mix, how things are changing, if there's anything from a network perspective we should be thinking about? I get the productivity and you have to kind of get some reps in before you feel comfortable with how that can be sustainable. But anything sort of maybe insurmountable that you see right off the bat?

除此之外，市場中還存在一些其他相關的動態因素。但我想，既然你已經在那裡工作了三個多月，並且有機會思考一下業務，你是否看到任何可能阻礙我們恢復到之前水平的重要因素，比如不同的客戶群、情況的變化，以及從網絡角度來看，我們是否應該考慮什麼？我明白提高效率的重要性，但你必須先進行一些練習，以適應這種效率的可持續性。但有沒有一些你一眼就能看出可能無法克服的困難呢？

I mean, in an answer, no, I don't see anything insurmountable. And it's not like I'm sitting here thinking that we're going to go back to the heydays of coal, and that's how we're going to accomplish it. That's not what I'm thinking. I'm thinking about basically take the mix we got and through some of the strong initiatives that Maryclare talked about earlier, finding some growth through our own actions. Obviously, any time you get a little help from the economy, that would certainly help a great deal towards moving those operating margins up faster.

我的意思是，就答案而言，不，我不認為有什麼無法克服的困難。我並不是坐在這裡想著我們要回到煤炭的鼎盛時期，然後就指望用這種方式來實現目標。我可不是這麼想的。我基本上是想利用我們現有的資源組合，並透過瑪麗克萊爾之前提到的一些強有力的舉措，透過我們自己的行動來實現一些成長。顯然，任何時候經濟狀況好轉，都肯定有助於更快地提高營業利潤率。

But I really don't sit here and think I need to have a lot of help from the economy. I think our own growth initiatives do a better job on price management, and working the productivity equation very hard. And both Mike and Kevin have talked about certain actions that they've taken. But I can lay out something that says we should be able to get there. But again, I want to see the kind of proof in the pudding, and I think that will happen. But that's kind of how I think about it.

但我真的不認為我需要經濟上很多的幫助。我認為我們自身的成長計劃在價格管理方面做得更好，並且非常努力地提高了生產力。麥克和凱文都談到了他們採取的一些行動。但我可以闡述我們應該能夠實現這個目標。但是，我還是想看看實際結果如何，而且我認為這種情況會發生。但我就是這麼想的。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

Jason Seidl，TD Cowen。

Maryclare, I guess this is going to be one for you. If we're going to go back to the coal side, but I want a clarification first. I think you said it was -- you were calling for muted growth and then you said next year. I'm assuming you were talking '26 and not '27?

瑪莉克萊爾，看來這事兒得交給你了。如果我們要回到煤炭方面，但我首先想要一個澄清。我想你之前說過－你當時呼籲保持溫和成長，然後你說明年再說。我猜你指的是 2026 年而不是 2027 年吧？

Yes, '26, sorry.

是的，是26年，抱歉。

Okay. Not a problem. I've done that a bunch of times already this year. I wanted to just ask a question, given this storm and some of the impacts that we've seen at least over the last 2 days with natural gas futures, -- just how long do natural gas prices have to stay elevated until we see a flow-through on the volume side? And what's sort of the best way to monitor that?

好的。沒問題。今年我已經這樣做了好幾次了。我想問一個問題，鑑於這場風暴以及我們至少在過去兩天裡看到的天然氣期貨的一些影響——天然氣價格需要維持高位多久，我們才能看到交易量方面的下降？那麼，監測這種情況的最佳方法是什麼呢？

Yeah. Thanks, Jason. I would say, as I think about the coal side, both with greater power demand that we're seeing here and the increase in the natural gas prices, certainly supported recently about this upcoming storm. We feel good about the volume demand on the domestic utility side. I would say one of the things that we're watching here, though, is there were some plant closures that were supposed to start happening this year.

是的。謝謝你，傑森。我認為，就煤炭方面而言，鑑於我們目前看到的電力需求增加以及天然氣價格上漲，最近即將到來的風暴無疑也印證了這一點。我們對國內公用事業的銷售需求感到樂觀。不過，我想說的是，我們在這裡關注的一件事是，一些工廠本應在今年開始關閉。

We expect those will get delayed. But for how long, that's a little bit uncertain. I think there's going to be more demand and more opportunity for us. I think the piece we'll have to watch is how much can actually be supported by the producers going forward.

我們預計這些訂單將會延長。但這種情況能持續多久，目前還不太確定。我認為未來會有更多需求，也會為我們帶來更多機會。我認為我們需要關注的是，製片方未來究竟能夠提供多少支持。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧香克爾，摩根士丹利。

Steve, it's understandable that you pulled the long-term guidance given what macro has done in the last couple of years. But is that still the right template to think about earnings growth in the long term when macro is normal? Or do you think something has changed with the business where it could be better or worse than that initial guidance?

史蒂夫，鑑於過去幾年宏觀經濟的走勢，你撤回長期績效指引是可以理解的。但是，在宏觀經濟正常的情況下，這種模式仍然是思考長期獲利成長的正確模板嗎？或者您認為公司業務方面發生了哪些變化，導致實際情況可能比最初的預期更好或更糟？

No, I don't think anything has changed in the business where we can't come back and lay out a longer-term guidance or a longer-term algorithm. I don't see anything that's fundamentally changed the business that would prevent us from doing that. It's just caution on my part that I want to make sure that we can execute the plans in front of us before we start talking about a longer-term picture. But I'm not sitting here thinking that we need to get away from that any kind of longer-term guidance because there's something fundamentally wrong in the business. I don't see that.

不，我不認為業務方面發生了任何變化，我們仍然可以回來制定更長期的指導方針或更長期的演算法。我看不出有什麼因素從根本上改變了業務，會阻止我們這樣做。我只是出於謹慎，想確保我們能夠執行眼前的計劃，然後再開始討論更長遠的計劃。但我並不認為我們需要放棄任何長期指導，因為公司營運存在根本性的問題。我沒看到這一點。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Just sort of curious, can you maybe talk a little bit more about the double stack opportunity, perhaps sort of update, if anything, on the sizing. And I know you said people are putting bids out for the second quarter. Any additional sense for how we should think about the timing of how that could ramp into your business in order of magnitude?

我只是有點好奇，您能否再多談談雙層堆疊的可能性，或者能否提供一些關於尺寸方面的最新消息？我知道你說過有人正在為第二季度進行投標。對於如何考慮這種模式在多大程度上能夠逐步擴展到您的業務中，您還有什麼其他建議嗎？

Yeah. Thank you. So I'd tell you, we're really excited about Howard Street Tunnel. I've been here 14 years and excited to see it come to fruition. And there's a couple of opportunities there.

是的。謝謝。所以我想說，我們對霍華德街隧道計畫感到非常興奮。我在這裡待了14年，很高興看到它最終實現。那裡有幾個機會。

One, we're adding new connectivity from the Southeast up into the Northeast. And so we've announced new lanes of service. But it's also going to improve our service product from Chicago too and from Baltimore. It's also enabled us to allow efficient double-stack service from the West Coast all the way through to Baltimore versus having to do a Riverside Crosstown in Chicago. So we're excited about the opportunities that are out there.

第一，我們正在增加從東南部到東北部的新連接。因此，我們宣布開通新的服務線路。但這也將改善我們在芝加哥和巴爾的摩的服務產品。這也使我們能夠提供從西海岸到巴爾的摩的高效雙層列車服務，而無需在芝加哥進行河濱跨城列車服務。所以我們對目前存在的機會感到興奮。

We're talking to our customers today, both channel partners and shippers. But what I would tell you is based on past experience, it typically takes a couple of bid cycles to really for customers to kind of see the opportunity and convert more business. So we expect to see growth this year and going into the future, I would say, both on our domestic and in the future on the international side of the business as well.

今天我們正在與客戶溝通，包括通路合作夥伴和貨運商。但根據以往經驗，通常需要幾個競標週期，客戶才能真正看到機會並促成更多業務。因此，我們預計今年以及未來幾年，無論是在國內市場還是未來的國際市場，都將成長。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital.

沃爾特‧斯普拉克林 (Walter Spracklin)，加拿大皇家銀行資本 (RBC Capital)。

I wanted to come back to the revenue growth profile of low single digit. I know whenever I think about pricing in the rail industry, I kind of consider it in the 3.5% area, and then you do assume some volume growth, it would seem. So just curious, is there a mix effect at play here where we should build in some negative mix? Or are we seeing that core pricing number that's typically north of 3%, somewhere below 3%? I know, Maryclare, you flagged truck pricing.

我想回到個位數低收入成長的話題上來。我知道，每當我考慮鐵路業的定價時，我都會把它放在 3.5% 左右，然後你似乎會假設貨運量會有一些增長。所以我很好奇，這裡是否有某種混合效果，我們需要加入一些負面混合成分嗎？或者我們看到的核心定價數字通常高於 3%，但低於 3%？我知道，瑪麗克萊爾，你發現了卡車定價問題。

I don't know if that's -- I mean, truck pricing is catching a bit here. So I'm just curious as to how the -- you decompose the revenue growth versus what you would have seen typically in the past?

我不知道是不是這樣——我的意思是，這裡的卡車價格有點上漲了。所以我很好奇，您是如何分析收入成長的，並將其與過去通常的情況進行比較的？

Yeah. What I would say is mix is always going to play a role, right? And so as I talked about this year and what we're seeing, we expect some of the stronger growth to be in our lower RPU segments. And so that is going to absolutely have an impact on us. On the intermodal side, that's lower RPU.

是的。我想說的是，混合元素始終會發揮作用，對吧？正如我之前談到今年的情況，我們預計一些更強勁的成長將出現在我們較低的每用戶收入（RPU）細分市場。所以這肯定會對我們產生影響。從多式聯運的角度來看，這意味著每單位可用收入較低。

Minerals and Fertilizers, a little bit lower RPU for us. We are -- when you think about chemicals, when you think about Forest Products, when you think about Automotive, there's headwinds out there. I mean we're going to go after opportunities that we see and make sure they're accretive to the business. But mix is certainly going to impact where we see the growth come in 2026, and that will have an overall impact on the business. Kevin touched a little bit on the coal side earlier.

礦物質和肥料，我們的 RPU 值略低一些。我們現在面臨的挑戰是──當你想到化學物質、想到林產品、想到汽車產業時，你會發現處處充滿逆風。我的意思是，我們會抓住我們所看到的機會，並確保這些機會能為公司帶來利益。但產品組合肯定會影響我們對 2026 年成長點的預期，這將對業務產生整體影響。凱文之前稍微提到了煤炭方面的事。

I just mentioned on that. I do think that not only is there domestic utility opportunity this year provided these closures that are scheduled get pushed back. But I would also say on the export side, last year, we saw the numbers, the benchmarks come down pretty significantly over the course of the year. I think what we've seen is some pretty recent stabilization there. I guess I would call out that PLV has jumped up a bit, but I think it's important to note that when you think about our business, we're more heavily indexed to high vol. And I would say that's been more stable as opposed to seeing any significant increase at this point.

我剛才提到了這一點。我認為，如果這些計劃中的停工能夠推遲，今年不僅國內公用事業領域將有發展機會。但我也想說，在出口方面，去年我們看到相關數據和基準指標在一年內大幅下降。我認為我們看到的是近期局勢趨於穩定。我想指出的是，PLV 確實有所上漲，但我認為需要注意的是，考慮到我們的業務，我們與高波動率的關聯度更高。而且我認為，目前為止，情況比較穩定，還沒有任何顯著成長。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆少校，薩斯奎哈納。

Steve, last quarter, you gave us some thoughts early on in your tenure about your compensation philosophy and how it kind of applied to the rail model. Now that you've gotten through a few more months, you're in planning, can you talk a little bit more tactically about how you and the Board have talked about changing the incentives for senior management, both on an annual basis and a go-forward long-term basis? How are they different today than they were the last few years?

史蒂夫，上個季度，你曾向我們闡述你上任初期的一些薪資理念，以及這種理念如何應用於鐵路模式。現在你們又度過了幾個月，進入了規劃階段，能否更具策略性地談談您和董事會是如何討論改變高階管理層激勵機制的，包括年度激勵機制和未來長期激勵機制？與前幾年相比，它們現在有哪些不同之處？

Well, you're -- we're basically in the process of rolling out the new metrics kind of as we speak. But if you -- to your point about what I discussed last time about most important, and it's really inherent in our guidance, right? I talked about operating margins as being very important in terms of demonstrating that we can continue to improve the quality of the business. And so that's an obvious metric, operating income dollars, that's what translates into net income and earnings per share. So that's obvious -- that will always be an important metric.

嗯，我們基本上正在逐步推出新的指標。但是，如果你——回到你剛才提到的我上次討論的最重要的一點，這確實是我們指導原則中固有的，對吧？我曾談到營業利益率非常重要，因為它能證明我們可以持續提高業務品質。因此，營業收入（美元）是一個顯而易見的指標，它可以轉化為淨收入和每股盈餘。所以很明顯——這始終是一個重要的衡量標準。

Safety will always be part of the mix. And if I had to pick three metrics that are most important to us sitting here at this time, it'd be those three, including safety. That's really on a year-to-year basis. And as you look into the longer term, which we call kind of three years, and you've heard me say, and those of you have heard me say this for many years, some of you, return on capital, I think, is the truth serum for any capital-intensive business. So return on capital is very important.

安全始終是考慮因素之一。如果非要我選出此時此刻對我們最重要的三個指標，那就是這三個，其中就包含安全。這實際上是按年計算的。放眼長遠，我們稱之為三年左右的時間，你們都聽我說過，而且你們中的一些人多年來也一直聽我這麼說，我認為資本回報率對於任何資本密集型企業來說都是真理的化身。因此，資本報酬率非常重要。

And it's total shareholder return. How well are we doing compared to the S&P 500 industrials. I think that's important to all of us. So kind of in a nutshell, those are the metrics that are most important. And I've always liked to focus the organization on a handful of really important metrics as opposed to having 8, 10, 12 as I've seen other companies do over time. And I think that's -- if you want to motivate the organization, if you want to incent the organization, you need to have metrics that are very meaningful and reinforce that every day.

這是股東總回報。與標普500工業指數相比，我們的表現如何？我認為這對我們所有人來說都很重要。簡而言之，這些都是最重要的指標。我一直喜歡讓組織專注於少數幾個真正重要的指標，而不是像我見過的其他公司那樣，隨著時間的推移，設立 8 個、10 個、12 個指標。我認為，如果你想激勵組織，如果你想鼓舞組織，你需要有非常有意義的指標，並且每天強化這些指標。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

So Steve, if you could maybe kind of address the cadence of OR improvement we're expecting as we get through this year. Should we be expecting kind of year-over-year across the board? Or is it going to be a little bit more back or front-end weighted? And then if you could put a hard number around what the benefit -- the run rate benefit you're expecting from the cost actions you've taken to date, I think that would help us kind of better understand the bridge for kind of what's organic or volume dependent and what's already kind of in the bag.

所以史蒂夫，你能不能談談我們今年預期手術室改進的節奏？我們是否應該預期各方面都會出現年減的情況？或者說，它的重點會稍微偏向後端還是前端？如果你能給出一個確切的數字來衡量收益——也就是你迄今為止採取的成本控制措施所帶來的預期收益，我認為這將有助於我們更好地理解哪些是自然增長或與銷售相關的，哪些是已經實現的。

Yeah. When you -- certainly, there are comparisons when you think about what occurred in 2025, and I would obviously highlight first quarter given some of the storm activity and other things that occurred to us as a quarter where we should have good year-over-year performance probably above the average for the year. This is a continual process. As we move through the year, we continue to expect to get better and drive more cost out of the business. And we'll see if the -- what the revenue story is.

是的。當然，在考慮 2025 年發生的事情時，可以進行比較，我顯然會重點關注第一季度，因為該季度發生了一些風暴活動和其他一些事情，我們應該會取得良好的同比業績，可能高於全年平均水平。這是一個持續的過程。隨著年數的增加，我們預期業績會持續提升，並進一步降低業務成本。我們將看看－營收情況究竟如何。

We're obviously not assuming a whole lot, but there's a lot of activity around that as well. The framework that I would use from a margin perspective is the $150 million that I certainly highlighted as not going to reoccur next year. I highlighted 3% to 3.5% inflation in our business, and you'll see that more pronounced on the labor side versus the nonlabor side. And I think you can effectively back into what we're assuming from a productivity standpoint from there.

我們當然不會妄下斷言，但圍繞這方面的活動也很多。從利潤率的角度來看，我採用的框架是我之前強調的1.5億美元，這筆錢明年肯定不會再出現了。我指出我們產業的通貨膨脹率為 3% 至 3.5%，你會發現勞動成本的通貨膨脹比非勞動成本的通貨膨脹更為明顯。我認為，從生產力的角度來看，你可以有效地反推我們所做的假設。

Diane McKinney, Deutsche Bank.

黛安‧麥金尼，德意志銀行。

Kind of sticking with the OR progression, I think it was really encouraging to hear about the over 100 diverse savings initiatives that the team identified, but it also sounds like there's potential for more. But as it relates to the full year outlook of the 200 to 300 basis points of OR improvement, can you help us bridge from 2025, like are these cost savings considered? How much is dependent on the market versus what's within CSX's control? Any color there would be really helpful.

繼續跟進手術室的進展，聽到團隊確定了 100 多項不同的節約措施，我感到非常鼓舞，但聽起來還有更多的可能性。但就全年預期手術室改善 200 至 300 個基點而言，您能否幫助我們從 2025 年開始展望，例如，這些成本節約是否已考慮在內？有多少因素取決於市場，又有多少因素在CSX的控制範圍內？如果能添加一些顏色就太好了。

We're not depending on the market. This is a plan that is based on the things that we can control, which is encouraging for us and this team, we're going to focus on those items. And we haven't talked about the potential for some of these markets to improve, but what we're really focused on is creating the operating leverage when the markets improve. to quite frankly, deliver higher incremental margins than what we've done in the past. And I'm fully confident given all of the things that we're doing that every incremental dollar of revenue that Maryclare and her team are able to deliver that will come in at a very, very high incremental margin given all the cost things that we're focused on.

我們並不依賴市場。這是一個基於我們能夠控制的事情的計劃，這對我們和我們的團隊來說是一個鼓舞人心的消息，我們將專注於這些事情。我們還沒有討論過某些市場可能改善的情況，但我們真正關注的是，當市場好轉時，如何創造營運槓桿效應，坦白說，是為了實現比以往更高的增量利潤率。鑑於我們正在做的一切，我完全有信心，瑪麗克萊爾和她的團隊能夠實現的每一美元新增收入，考慮到我們所關注的所有成本因素，都將帶來非常非常高的增量利潤。

Going back to the 100 different opportunities, it's really across everything from vehicle spend to overtime, focus on rental equipment, travel, Mike and his team, Doug, Casey, Terry, all of them have brought ideas to the table. And now it's building the process on a monthly basis to hold our teams accountable to delivering it. I'm very confident that we can do that and providing better tools, quite frankly, to the operating team and every team across this organization, so they have visibility to where the costs are. And I'm feeling better and better about that every day. I know Mike and I collaborate on that every day.

回到這 100 個不同的機會，它們涵蓋了從車輛支出到加班費、租賃設備、差旅等方方面面，Mike 和他的團隊，Doug、Casey、Terry，他們都提出了許多想法。現在，我們正在按月建立流程，以確保我們的團隊能夠按時完成任務。我非常有信心我們能夠做到這一點，坦白說，我們將為營運團隊和整個組織的每個團隊提供更好的工具，讓他們能夠清楚地了解成本在哪裡。而且我每天都感覺好多了。我知道我和麥克每天都在為此合作。

I'm sure there's things that we don't know about today that we'll continue to identify. And so our goal is to build the momentum through the year. And when that volume comes back, we're going to have a network that can handle the volume most importantly and really deliver the incremental margins.

我相信，現在還有很多我們不知道的事情，我們會繼續發現它們。因此，我們的目標是全年保持這種發展勢頭。當交易量恢復時，我們將擁有一個能夠處理如此大交易量的網絡，最重要的是，我們將真正實現利潤成長。

This concludes the question-and-answer session and we will conclude today's conference call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

問答環節到此結束，今天的電話會議也將結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。