CSX Corporation (CSX) 2014 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the CSX Corporation first-quarter 2014 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

各位女士、各位先生，早安。歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2014 年第一季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。在本次電話會議期間，所有與會者將以僅收聽模式參與。

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation. You may begin, sir.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話會議交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you and good morning, everyone, and welcome again to CSX Corporation's first-quarter 2014 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we'll be reviewing this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the investors section. In addition, following the presentation a webcast and podcast replay will be available on that same website.

謝謝，各位早安，也再次歡迎各位參加 CSX Corporation 2014 年第一季財報簡報。我們今天早上將審閱的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可在 CSX.com 網站投資人專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，同一網站也將提供網路直播與播客的重播。

Here representing CSX this morning, are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer. Now before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements.

今天早上代表 CSX 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。

You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements as well as the uncertainties and risks that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露事項。該揭露說明了前瞻性陳述，以及可能導致實際表現與這些陳述所預期結果出現重大差異的不確定性與風險。

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. That said, with nearly 30 analysts covering CSX today, I would ask as a courtesy for everyone to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question. And with that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

另外也提醒各位，在簡報結束時我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。話雖如此，鑑於目前約有近 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，敬請各位基於禮貌將提問限制為一個主要問題與一個追問。那麼，接下來我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁暨執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Last evening CSX reported first-quarter earnings per share of $0.40, down from $0.45 in the same period last year. These results reflect the challenging winter conditions faced by CSX and the broader transportation industry this quarter.

謝謝你，David，各位早安。昨晚 CSX 公布第一季每股盈餘為 0.40 美元，低於去年同期的 0.45 美元。這些結果反映了本季 CSX 以及整體運輸產業所面臨的嚴峻冬季天候。

In that regard, I would like to offer my sincere thanks to the talented and dedicated men and women of CSX who worked tirelessly through one of the worst winters on record to keep the network running as fluidly as possible. I would also like to thank our customers for their patience and support as we work through the service impacts to meet their needs.

在此，我要向 CSX 才華洋溢且敬業的同仁們致上誠摯的感謝；他們在有紀錄以來最嚴酷的冬季之一中不懈努力，讓網路能盡可能順暢運行。同時也要感謝我們的客戶在我們因服務受影響、仍努力滿足其需求的過程中所展現的耐心與支持。

Looking at the quarterly results, revenue increased 2% to $3 billion on a 3% volume increase. The underlying economy remains strong and supports continued gain in CSX's intermodal and merchandise markets, which more than offset the decline in coal business.

就季度表現而言，營收在運量成長 3% 的帶動下增加 2%，達到 30 億美元。基本面經濟仍然強勁，支撐 CSX 的聯運與一般貨運市場持續成長，並且足以抵銷煤炭業務的下滑。

At the same time, as Oscar will discuss in more detail later, we took many steps during the quarter to keep service levels as high as possible in a challenging environment. Dealing with those challenges also had the effect of increasing costs.

同時，正如 Oscar 稍後將更詳細說明的，我們在本季採取了多項措施，在充滿挑戰的環境下盡可能維持高水準的服務。因應這些挑戰也帶來成本上升的影響。

As a result, operating income decreased 16% to $739 million and the operating ratio increased 520 basis points to 75.5%. As we look forward, we have the resources in place to support a gradual service recovery while also capitalizing on market opportunities created by broad economic strength.

因此，營業利益下滑 16% 至 7.39 億美元，營業比率上升 520 個基點至 75.5%。展望未來，我們已具備資源以支持服務逐步復原，同時把握整體經濟強勁所帶來的市場機會。

We see the first quarter headwinds transitioning to longer-term positive momentum in the back half of the year, as the economy drives additional growth in our merchandise and intermodal business, coupled with an improving environment for domestic coal this year, based on increased electrical demand, higher natural gas prices and reduced stockpiles across much of CSX's service territory. Given these opportunities, we will more than offset the challenges of this quarter.

我們看到第一季的逆風將在下半年轉化為較長期的正向動能：在經濟帶動下，我們的一般貨運與聯運業務將進一步成長；同時，基於用電需求增加、天然氣價格走高，以及 CSX 多數服務區域庫存下降，國內煤炭今年的環境也將改善。在這些機會之下，我們將能充分抵銷本季的挑戰。

For that reason our earnings picture remains intact with modest growth expected for full-year 2014. Now I'll turn the presentation over to Clarence, who will take us through the top-line results in more detail. Clarence?

因此，我們的獲利展望仍維持不變，預期 2014 全年將呈現溫和成長。接下來我把簡報交給 Clarence，他將更詳細帶領各位檢視營收端的結果。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning. This was a challenging quarter with the impact of the severe winter masking the underlying strength of the economy and the strong demand for our service.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。這是一個充滿挑戰的季度，嚴寒冬季的影響掩蓋了經濟基本面的強勁以及市場對我們服務的旺盛需求。

As you can see on the left side of the chart, total volume grew 3% and surpassed 1.6 million loads in the quarter, with growth in merchandise and intermodal more than offsetting the decline in coal. As a result, merchandise and intermodal now combine for 82% of CSX's total volume.

如圖表左側所示，總運量成長 3%，本季超過 160 萬車次（loads）；其中一般貨運與聯運的成長，足以抵銷煤炭的下滑。因此，一般貨運與聯運合計已占 CSX 總運量的 82%。

Moving to the right, total revenue increased $49 million to over $3 billion in the quarter, reflecting overall volume growth and increased pricing across most markets. Here, merchandise and intermodal now account for over three-quarters of CSX's overall revenue.

再看右側，本季總營收增加 4,900 萬美元，超過 30 億美元，反映整體運量成長以及多數市場的定價提升。在此，一般貨運與聯運目前占 CSX 整體營收的四分之三以上。

Next, the average revenue per unit was down slightly. The impact of core pricing gains and liquidated damages was offset by the unfavorable mix impact related to growth in intermodal versus the decline in coal.

接著，單位平均營收略為下滑。核心定價提升與違約金（liquidated damages）的影響，被不利的產品組合效應所抵銷；該效應來自聯運成長相對於煤炭下滑。

Finally, core pricing on a same-store sales basis remains solid across nearly all markets. Recall that same-store sales are defined as shipments with the same customer, commodity and car type and the same margin and destination. These shipments represented 75% of CSX's traffic base for the quarter.

最後，以同店銷售口徑計算的核心定價在幾乎所有市場仍維持穩健。請回想，同店銷售的定義為：同一客戶、商品與車種，且相同的利潤與目的地之出貨。這些出貨在本季占 CSX 運輸量基礎的 75%。

On this basis, all-in prices was 0.5% in the quarter, primarily reflecting continued rate pressure in the export coal market. Since we continue to have greater variability in both our export and domestic coal business, reflecting global market conditions and our fixed variable contract structure; and since our merchandise and intermodal markets are becoming a larger portion of our business, we have again provided you with the same same-store sales pricing for these two markets on a combined basis.

在此基礎上，本季含所有因素的價格（all-in prices）為 0.5%，主要反映出口煤炭市場持續的運價壓力。由於我們的出口與國內煤炭業務仍有較高的波動性（反映全球市場狀況以及我們固定/變動合約結構）；且由於一般貨運與聯運市場在我們業務中占比日益提高，我們再次向各位提供這兩個市場合併口徑的同店銷售定價。

At the bottom of this panel you can see pricing for merchandise and intermodal averaged 2.6% for the quarter. This increase is less on a year-over-year basis, but still represents a solid spread over rail inflation.

在此面板底部，各位可看到一般貨運與聯運的定價本季平均為 2.6%。此增幅在年對年基礎上較低，但仍代表相對於鐵路通膨的穩健利差。

That said, we remain confident that the value created by our service product for our customers provides a solid foundation for growth and pricing above rail inflation over the long term. Now let's look at the individual markets in more detail starting with merchandise.

即便如此，我們仍有信心：我們的服務產品為客戶所創造的價值，為長期成長以及高於鐵路通膨的定價提供了穩固基礎。現在讓我們更詳細檢視各個市場，先從一般貨運開始。

Overall, merchandise revenue increased 4% to nearly $1.8 billion in the quarter. Volume in the agricultural sector was up 4%. Feed grain shipments, both domestic and export, increased sharply due to a strong 2013 harvest. In addition, ethanol shipments grew as lower corn prices resulted in higher ethanol production levels.

整體而言，本季一般貨運營收成長 4%，接近 18 億美元。農業部門運量成長 4%。由於 2013 年收成強勁，飼料穀物出貨（包含國內與出口）大幅增加。此外，因玉米價格走低帶動乙醇產量提高，乙醇出貨亦成長。

The construction sector declined 2% overall, as weather-related challenges more than offset the continued recovery of the residential housing market. Finally, the industrial sector was up 3%. Strength in energy-related commodities including crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas more than offset lower shipments in the metals and automotive markets impacted by the severe winter weather.

建築部門整體下滑 2%，因天候相關挑戰的影響，超過了住宅房市持續復甦所帶來的正面效果。最後，工業部門成長 3%。包含原油與液化石油氣在內的能源相關商品走強，足以抵銷受嚴寒冬季天候影響而下滑的金屬與汽車市場出貨。

Moving to the next slide let's review the intermodal business. Intermodal revenue increased 4% to $421 million.

接著到下一張投影片，我們來回顧聯運業務。聯運營收成長 4%，至 4.21 億美元。

Total intermodal volume grew 5% setting a new first-quarter record. Domestic volume was up 7%, also setting a new first-quarter record driven by continued highway to rail conversions. International volume was up 3% year-over-year, reflecting continued economic growth.

聯運總運量成長 5%，創下第一季新高紀錄。國內運量成長 7%，同樣創下第一季新高，主要由持續的公路轉鐵路（highway to rail）轉換所帶動。國際運量年對年成長 3%，反映經濟持續成長。

Total intermodal revenue per unit declined 1% as continued core pricing gains and higher fuel recoveries were offset by unfavorable mix. Volume associated with our domestic door-to-door product, which has a high revenue per unit, was more severely impacted by the weather.

每單位聯運營收下滑1%，因持續的核心定價改善與較高的燃油回收，被不利的產品組合所抵銷。與我們國內門到門產品相關的運量（該產品每單位營收較高）受到天候影響更為嚴重。

Finally, we continued to focus on the intermodal product by adding new service offerings and making strategic investments. These investments include the new terminal in Winter Haven, Florida, which opened early this month; the Montreal terminal, which will open later in the year; and the ongoing expansion of the Northwest Ohio facility.

最後，我們持續聚焦聯運產品，新增服務方案並進行策略性投資。這些投資包括本月初啟用的佛羅里達州溫特黑文新場站；將於今年稍晚啟用的蒙特婁場站；以及西北俄亥俄設施的持續擴建。

Moving to the next slide, let's review the coal business. Coal revenue declined 9% in the quarter to $662 million. Export coal tonnage declined 15% as global market conditions for both thermal and metallurgical coals continued to soften.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來回顧煤炭業務。本季煤炭營收下滑9%至6.62億美元。出口煤炭噸數下滑15%，因動力煤與冶金煤的全球市場狀況持續走弱。

The API 2 benchmark for thermal coal recently fell to $75 per ton, a level where US coals are more challenged to compete. The Queensland metallurgical coal benchmark has also fallen to low levels of $120 per ton.

動力煤API 2基準價格近期降至每噸75美元，在此水準下，美國煤炭的競爭力更具挑戰。昆士蘭冶金煤基準價格也降至每噸120美元的低檔水準。

Domestic coal tonnage increased 8%, driven by increased northern utility shipments, including competitive gain. Finally, total revenue per unit was down 8% with lower export pricing and unfavorable domestic mix negatively impacting RPU.

國內煤炭噸數成長8%，主要由北部公用事業出貨增加所帶動，其中包含競爭性市占提升。最後，每單位總營收下滑8%，較低的出口定價與不利的國內產品組合對每單位營收（RPU）造成負面影響。

Moving onto the next slide, let's take a look at the macroeconomic environment. The underlying macro economy remains constructive for growth.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來看看總體經濟環境。整體總體經濟基本面仍有利於成長。

The Purchasing Managers Index increased to 53.7 in March. A reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing economy is expanding. This is the tenth consecutive month the PMI index has signaled expansion.

採購經理人指數（PMI）在3月上升至53.7。高於50代表製造業景氣正在擴張。這是PMI連續第十個月顯示擴張。

Meanwhile, the Customer Inventories Index declined to 42 in March. A reading below 50 indicates customers' inventories are low. This is the lowest reading since May of 2011, when the customers inventories index registered 39.5.

同時，客戶庫存指數在3月下降至42。低於50代表客戶庫存偏低。這是自2011年5月以來的最低讀數，當時客戶庫存指數為39.5。

On the right side of the page, both the GDP and IDP projections remain strong and show continued growth throughout 2014. This is consistent with what we see in the marketplace and what we hear from our diverse customer base.

在頁面右側，GDP與IDP的預測仍然強勁，並顯示2014年全年將持續成長。這與我們在市場上看到的情況，以及從多元客戶群所聽到的回饋一致。

Now let me wrap up with the outlook for the second quarter. Looking forward, we expect the overall volume outlook for the second quarter to be positive, with favorable conditions for 83% of our markets and stable conditions for the remaining 17%.

現在我以第二季展望作結。展望未來，我們預期第二季整體運量前景偏正向；其中83%的市場條件有利，其餘17%維持穩定。

Looking at some of the key markets, agriculture is favorable with higher year-over-year crop yields supporting continued growth in grain shipments. We expect growth in chemicals as we continue to capture opportunities created by the expanding domestic oil and gas industry.

就部分關鍵市場而言，農業面向有利，年增的作物產量支撐穀物運輸持續成長。隨著國內油氣產業擴張所帶來的機會持續被我們掌握，我們預期化學品將成長。

The continued expansion of the US housing and construction markets will drive growth in the forest products and mineral markets. Strong intermodal growth will continue as our strategic network investments and service reliability support highway to rail conversions.

美國住宅與建築市場的持續擴張，將帶動林產品與礦物市場成長。在我們策略性網路投資與服務可靠度的支持下，強勁的聯運成長將延續，推動公路轉鐵路的運輸轉換。

We expect domestic coal volume will grow in the second quarter, as inventory levels have normalized and gas prices have increased to levels where most coals are a more competitive fuel source. Export coal volume is expected to be neutral in the second quarter. And our best estimate of 2014 volume remains in the mid-30 million ton range, reflecting soft global market conditions particularly in the thermal market.

我們預期第二季國內煤炭運量將成長，因庫存水位已回歸正常，且天然氣價格上升至使多數煤炭成為更具競爭力燃料來源的水準。第二季出口煤炭運量預期持平。而我們對2014年運量的最佳估計仍在3,000多萬噸中段區間，反映全球市場狀況疲弱，尤其是動力煤市場。

At the same time rail pricing will likely continue to reflect the weak global market conditions. The automotive market is stable with North American light vehicle production expected to grow 1% in the second quarter.

同時，鐵路定價可能仍將反映疲弱的全球市場狀況。汽車市場維持穩定，預期第二季北美輕型車產量將成長1%。

The US economic expansion is expected to continue in 2014 with projected GDP and IDP growth at 2.9% and 3.2% respectively, producing and macroeconomic environment that supports growth. The value of the service we provide supports not only growth but also pricing above rail inflation over the long term. Thank you, and now I'll turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

預期美國經濟擴張將在2014年持續，GDP與IDP成長率預測分別為2.9%與3.2%，形成支持成長的總體經濟環境。我們所提供服務的價值，不僅支撐成長，也在長期支持定價高於鐵路通膨。謝謝，接下來我把簡報交給Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運結果。

Thank you, Clarence, and good morning, everyone. As most of you know or heard by now, this past winter season was one of near-historic proportions in terms of the duration, the cold, the snow and ice. The corresponding impact on not only rail but truck and airline transportation systems, their supply chains and frankly the overall economy, was pretty significant.

謝謝你，Clarence，各位早安。如各位多數人所知或已聽聞，剛過去的冬季在持續時間、低溫、降雪與結冰方面幾近歷史性。其對鐵路、卡車與航空運輸系統、其供應鏈，坦白說也對整體經濟所造成的影響，相當顯著。

We at CSX certainly felt the impact of the severe weather, and despite the best efforts of our operating employees, who often worked around the clock to ensure we were able to deliver freight even in the worst of conditions, CSX's operating performance this quarter was not at the high levels we've all come to expect. We assure you that the team is fully engaged to support both a gradual recovery and the strong demand that Clarence just discussed.

CSX當然也感受到惡劣天候的衝擊；儘管我們的營運同仁竭盡所能，經常日以繼夜工作，以確保即使在最惡劣的條件下仍能交付貨運，但本季CSX的營運表現未達到我們大家一向期待的高水準。我們向各位保證，團隊已全力投入，以支持逐步復原，以及Clarence剛才所談到的強勁需求。

Now looking at the operating results in the first quarter and beginning with safety, while CSX still remains a leader amongst the Class 1 railroads, we did experience an increase in both personal injuries and in train accidents. The personal injury rate was up to 0.96 and the train accident rate rose to the 2.35, both up from near record low levels in the first quarter of last year. Adverse operating conditions were a factor in these results, but we remain focused on prevention with a specific emphasis on avoiding catastrophic injuries.

現在來看第一季的營運結果，先從安全開始。雖然CSX仍是第一級鐵路（Class 1）同業中的領先者，但我們確實看到人身傷害與列車事故均有所增加。人身傷害率上升至0.96，列車事故率上升至2.35，兩者皆高於去年第一季接近歷史新低的水準。不利的營運條件是造成這些結果的因素之一，但我們仍專注於預防，並特別強調避免災難性傷害。

Let me now turn to the Company's service performance on the next slide. Our operating measures echo the challenges that the North American transportation industry faced in the first quarter. Originations, arrivals, velocity and dwell are all well off the record levels of the last few years. But, as you'll see later on in the presentation, service measures are stabilizing and beginning to improve.

接著請看下一張投影片，我來談公司的服務表現。我們的營運指標反映了北美運輸產業在第一季所面臨的挑戰。起運量、到達量、運行速度與停留時間（dwell）都明顯低於過去幾年的紀錄水準。不過，如同你稍後在簡報中會看到的，服務指標正在趨於穩定並開始改善。

If you turn to slide 15, I will highlight some of the specific challenges we face from the severe weather in the quarter. While the impact on CSX's network was most keenly felt in the Midwest and Northeast, this is a network business. And as you can see on the map on the left of the chart, on-time originations were negatively impacted as far south as the state of Georgia. Of course our northern region clearly faced the worst of the storms, resulting in on-time performance for the quarter of just above 50%.

如果你翻到第15頁，我將說明本季惡劣天候帶來的一些具體挑戰。雖然CSX網路受影響最明顯的是中西部與東北部，但這是一個網路型業務。如你在圖表左側地圖所見，準時起運率一路往南到喬治亞州都受到負面影響。當然，我們北部區域顯然遭遇最嚴重的風暴，使得本季準時表現僅略高於50%。

On the right side of the chart you can see Heating Degree Days, an indicator of the severity of cold temperatures, were up over 17% on a year-over-year basis. And snowfall was more than double prior-year levels in most of our northern service territory.

在圖表右側你可以看到，作為低溫嚴重程度指標的「暖房度日數」（Heating Degree Days）年增超過17%。而在我們北部多數服務區域，降雪量較去年同期高出一倍以上。

In a normal winter when a storm approaches, we make adjustments to the operating plan, move the relevant resources to the area to accommodate the disruption. And then usually have a little time to return to normal operating plans after the weather has passed.

在一般冬季，當風暴接近時，我們會調整營運計畫，將相關資源調度至該區域以因應干擾。然後通常在天候過後，還會有一些時間讓我們回到正常的營運計畫。

This year 25 storms came back to back over several months, which meant that the operating plan had to be constantly adjusted to serve customer needs. These adjustments require more resources and can also stress our line of road and yard capacity.

但今年在數個月內連續發生25場風暴，意味著營運計畫必須不斷調整以滿足客戶需求。這些調整需要更多資源，也可能使我們的正線與調車場容量承受壓力。

The worst of the weather seems to be behind us, and we're beginning to see fluidity recover. However, given the duration of the storm season and the backlog of freight it created, along with the increased demand we are seeing, our complete service recovery will be gradual.

最嚴峻的天候似乎已經過去，我們也開始看到運行順暢度回升。然而，考量風暴季節持續時間長、造成的貨運積壓，以及我們目前看到的需求增加，我們的全面服務復原將是逐步進行。

Let me turn to the next slide and I'll discuss the effects on the operating cost of the business. While Fredrik will provide more specifics on where these impacts were in the quarter and what to expect going forward, let me give you some details on the key operational impacts.

接著看下一張投影片，我將討論對營運成本的影響。雖然Fredrik會提供更具體的細節，說明本季這些影響發生在哪些項目，以及未來的預期，但我先就關鍵營運影響提供一些說明。

If you look at the chart and on the left, the number of relief starts doubled year over year. Overtime across the entire operating department was up nearly 50%.

如果你看圖表左側，救援開行次數年增一倍。整個營運部門的加班時間增加了將近50%。

We positioned maintenance of way and signal employees around the clock along our critical routes to ensure traffic can move safely and efficiently through these affected areas. Mechanical employees worked extra shifts to ensure locomotives and freight cars were available to help catch up and meet customer demand. The Transportation Department labored to ensure terminals remained fluid and trains ran as close to schedule as possible.

我們在關鍵路線沿線全天候部署工務維修與號誌員工，以確保列車能在這些受影響區域安全且有效率地通行。機務員工加開額外班次，確保機車與貨車可用，以協助追趕進度並滿足客戶需求。運輸部門也全力以赴，確保場站維持順暢、列車盡可能接近時刻表運行。

Moving down the chart average freight car cycle days were up 9%, reflecting the additional time it took to move cars to and from customer facilities. We also placed additional locomotives into service. The result was a 7% increase in the average locomotive count.

再往下看圖表，平均貨車週轉天數上升9%，反映車輛往返客戶設施所需時間增加。我們也投入更多機車投入營運。結果使平均機車數量增加7%。

With this many additional locomotives and the harsh conditions, fuel efficiency was impacted. I'm encouraged however, that we only saw a 2% setback in this measure, as the underlying technology and processes we have in place to drive fuel savings are still yielding results.

在新增這麼多機車以及嚴苛環境下，燃油效率受到影響。不過我感到鼓舞的是，這項指標僅下滑2%，因為我們用來推動節油的底層技術與流程仍持續產生成效。

Finally, our active T&E crew count was flat on a year-over-year basis. Crews worked extra hard to run the network through this harsh winter, and I am pleased to say that crew availability remained high and the team was able to support solid volume growth, even through the operating challenges. So recapping, maintaining network fluidity in these extreme conditions drove a significant short-term cost impact, but was necessary to serve our customers.

最後，我們在職的列車與引擎（T&E）乘務人數與去年同期持平。乘務人員在這個嚴酷冬季格外努力地維持網路運行，我也很高興地表示，乘務可用性仍維持高水準，團隊即使面臨營運挑戰，仍能支撐穩健的運量成長。總結來說，在極端條件下維持網路順暢帶來顯著的短期成本影響，但這是服務客戶所必須的。

Now let me turn to slide 17 and discuss our recent service trends. CSX has stabilized and is beginning to recover. The last of the significant storm systems came through about a month ago, and as you see depicted on the chart on the left of the slide, on-time originations is trending up and dwell is declining since that time, both positive signs.

現在請看第17頁，談談我們近期的服務趨勢。CSX 已趨於穩定並開始復原。最後一波重大風暴系統約在一個月前通過；如投影片左側圖表所示，自那之後，準時始發趨勢上升、停留時間（dwell）下降，兩者都是正面訊號。

As Clarence reviewed, traffic levels are also increasing. In support this growth, we expect our current high-level locomotives to remain in service for the foreseeable future, and we have new crew members in training to meet this rising demand.

如 Clarence 所回顧，運量水準也在增加。為支援這項成長，我們預期目前較高水準的機車投入將在可預見的未來持續維持，同時也有新乘務人員正在受訓，以滿足上升的需求。

The recovery in Chicago, specifically, will likely take longer due to the amount of interchange traffic with other railroads and the complexity of the rail network there. Nevertheless, the rails are in close coordination and we're beginning to see some headways.

尤其是芝加哥的復原，可能需要更長時間，因為那裡與其他鐵路公司的交接運量龐大，且鐵路網路更為複雜。儘管如此，各鐵路公司正密切協調，我們也開始看到一些進展。

As we look forward, we remain confident in our progress. Though it is clear that recovery and the related additional costs will extend through the second quarter, with more meaningful improvement in the second half of the year.

展望未來，我們對自身進展仍有信心。雖然很明顯，復原以及相關的額外成本將延續至第二季，但在下半年將出現更有意義的改善。

Now let me wrap up on the last slide. As I discussed, the effects from the winter storms were wide and significant, driving an increase in costs and impacting service levels.

現在讓我在最後一頁做個總結。如我所述，冬季風暴的影響範圍廣且程度重大，推升成本並影響服務水準。

Nevertheless, CSX is confident in the ability of this operating team to steadily return service to the levels our customers have come to expect. We are adequately resourced for recovery and our operating measures are headed in the right direction.

儘管如此，CSX 對這個營運團隊能穩步將服務恢復到客戶一向期待的水準充滿信心。我們已具備足夠資源以支援復原，且各項營運指標正朝正確方向發展。

From a productivity perspective, while it's too early to give you an update estimate for the full year, it's pretty clear we're not going to be able to deliver our normal $130 million savings. But we'll update you on that later on in the year.

從生產力角度來看，雖然現在要提供全年更新預估仍為時過早，但很明顯我們將無法達成平常的1.30億美元節省。不過我們會在今年稍晚再向各位更新。

So at this point, let me echo Michael's comments and thank each of our employees for their skill and dedication and safely and efficiently serving our customers through this challenging winter. With that, let me now turn the presentation over to Fred to review the financials.

因此在此，我想呼應 Michael 的話，感謝每一位員工憑藉專業與投入，在這個充滿挑戰的冬季中安全且有效率地服務客戶。接下來，我把簡報交給 Fred 來回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar, and good morning, everyone. As Clarence mentioned earlier, revenue increased 2% in the first quarter, as declines in coal revenue were more than offset by gains in merchandise, intermodal and the other revenue.

謝謝你，Oscar，各位早安。如 Clarence 先前提到，第一季營收成長2%，因為煤炭營收下滑已被商品、聯運以及其他營收的成長所抵銷且有餘。

In the quarter other revenue included $55 million of liquidated damages, an increase of $22 million versus the prior year. Looking at the remainder of 2014, we expect liquidated damages to be about $10 million for each of the remaining quarters.

本季其他營收包含5,500萬美元的違約金（liquidated damages），較去年增加2,200萬美元。展望2014年剩餘期間，我們預期其餘各季的違約金約為每季1,000萬美元。

Expenses increased 9% versus last year, driven primarily by the adverse impact of winter weather that Oscar mentioned, and the cycling of real estate gains, both of which I will discuss in more detail in the coming slides. Operating income was $739 million, down 16% or $141 million versus the prior year. Looking below the line, interest expense was down $7 million versus last year, driven by favorable interest rates on debt that was refinanced in 2013 and modestly lower debt levels.

費用較去年增加9%，主要受 Oscar 提到的冬季天候不利影響，以及不動產處分利益的基期效應所驅動；我將在後續投影片更詳細說明。營業利益為7.39億美元，較去年同期下降16%，或減少1.41億美元。在營業利益以下，利息費用較去年減少700萬美元，主要受惠於2013年再融資債務的較有利利率，以及債務水準小幅下降。

Other income was $7 million and income taxes were $208 million in the quarter, for an effective tax rate of approximately 34%. This included the state legislative tax change which benefited earnings by $0.02 per share. Without this change, the effective tax rate would have been 37.6%.

其他收益為700萬美元，本季所得稅為2.08億美元，有效稅率約34%。其中包含州立法稅制變更，使每股盈餘增加0.02美元。若無此變更，有效稅率將為37.6%。

Overall, net earnings were $398 million and EPS was $0.40 per share, down from $462 million and $0.45 respectively, from the prior-year period. Now, before we move on let me take a moment to summarize the total impact that weather had on our first-quarter financial results.

整體而言，淨利為3.98億美元，每股盈餘（EPS）為0.40美元，低於去年同期的4.62億美元與0.45美元。在繼續之前，我先用一點時間總結天候對第一季財務結果的整體影響。

We estimate that weather impact on the first quarter expense was around $90 million or $0.06 per share. The revenue impact is more challenging to quantify but we estimate there was about $0.02 to $0.03 per share in revenue contribution that we were not able to recover in the first quarter due to weather disruptions.

我們估計天候對第一季費用的影響約為9,000萬美元，或每股0.06美元。營收影響較難量化，但我們估計因天候干擾，第一季有約每股0.02至0.03美元的營收貢獻未能回收。

With that, let's turn to the next slide and briefly discuss how fuel lag impacted the quarter. On a year-over-year basis the effect of the lag in our fuel surcharge program was $4 million unfavorable. This reflects $9 million of negative in-quarter lag during the first quarter of 2014 versus $5 million of negative in-quarter lag for the same period in the prior year. Based on the current forward curve, we expect the year-over-year fuel lag impact to be negative in the second quarter, similar to what we saw in the first quarter.

接著看下一頁，簡要說明燃油滯後（fuel lag）如何影響本季。以年對年來看，我們燃油附加費方案的滯後效應帶來400萬美元的不利影響。這反映2014年第一季當季滯後為負900萬美元，而去年同期當季滯後為負500萬美元。依目前遠期曲線，我們預期第二季年對年的燃油滯後影響仍為負值，與第一季相近。

Turning to the next slide, let's review our expenses. Overall expenses increased 9% in the quarter. I'll talk about the top three expense items in more detail on the next slide, but let me first briefly speak to the bottom two on this chart.

再看下一頁，回顧我們的費用。本季整體費用增加9%。我會在下一頁更詳細說明前三大費用項目，但先簡要談談圖表中最後兩項。

Depreciation was up 5% to $283 million, due to the increase in the net asset base. Going forward, we expect depreciation to increase sequentially a few million dollars per quarter, reflecting the ongoing investment in our business. Equipment rent was up 6% to $101 million due to the weather's impact on the network and higher locomotive lease expense as active fleet was increased to minimize service disruptions.

折舊增加5%至2.83億美元，原因是淨資產基礎增加。展望未來，我們預期折舊將逐季增加每季數百萬美元，反映對業務的持續投資。設備租金增加6%至1.01億美元，原因是天候對網路的影響，以及為將服務中斷降至最低而提高在役車隊所帶來的機車租賃費用增加。

Turning to the next slide, let's discuss our other expenses. First, let me highlight the impacts that we had attributed to weather disruption across each of these expense categories.

接著看下一頁，討論其他費用。首先，我要強調我們歸因於天候干擾、在各費用類別中的影響。

As I previously mentioned, we estimate the first-quarter weather impact on expense was $90 million. Of that, $35 million is attributable to labor and fringe driven primarily by overtime and relief crew starts.

如我先前提到，我們估計第一季天候對費用的影響為9,000萬美元。其中3,500萬美元歸因於人力與附加福利，主要由加班與救援乘務開行所驅動。

$35 million in MS&O due to an increase in active locomotives and higher utility expense. $15 million is in fuel, driven by loss of efficiency and an increase in non-locomotive heating fuel. And finally there was $5 million of weather impact in equipment and rent expense, which I covered on the previous slide.

MS&O 增加3,500萬美元，原因是投入營運的機車增加以及公用事業費用上升。燃料增加1,500萬美元，主要由效率下降以及非機車用取暖燃料增加所致。最後，設備與租金費用中有500萬美元的天候影響，我已在前一頁說明。

Looking ahead at the second quarter, we expect to incur additional costs associated with recovering from the weather disruptions, although not to the same degree as seen in the first quarter. That summarizes the weather impact on our first-quarter expenses.

展望第二季，我們預期將因應從天候干擾中復原而產生額外成本，儘管其程度不會像第一季那樣嚴重。以上總結了天候對我們第一季費用的影響。

Now let me discuss the other drivers for each of the expense categories, beginning on the left with labor and fringe. Total labor and fringe increased 6% or $47 million versus last year, and included $14 million of inflation.

接下來我將討論各費用類別的其他驅動因素，先從左側的勞工與附加福利開始。勞工與附加福利總額較去年增加6%，或4,700萬美元，其中包含1,400萬美元的通膨影響。

Going forward, we expect labor inflation to be around $15 million on a year-over-year basis for the remaining quarters in 2014. At the same time, we expect headcount to remain roughly flat to our first-quarter level, although as we have consistently demonstrated, we will continue to adjust resources to reflect current volume levels and drive efficiency.

展望未來，我們預期2014年剩餘各季的勞工通膨，以年對年計約為1,500萬美元。同時，我們預期人員編制將大致維持在第一季水準；不過，正如我們一貫所展現的，我們將持續調整資源以反映目前的運量水準並提升效率。

Moving to the right on the slide, MS&O expense increased 24% or $122 million versus last year. This included a cycling of $49 million of real estate gains, a $12 million increase in expenses related to train accidents and $9 million of inflation. In addition, there was $17 million increase in other MS&O spanning multiple items, none of them of which were significantly by themselves.

移到投影片右側，MS&O費用較去年增加24%，或1.22億美元。其中包含4,900萬美元的不動產收益回轉、與列車事故相關費用增加1,200萬美元，以及900萬美元的通膨。此外，其他MS&O亦增加1,700萬美元，涵蓋多個項目，但單一項目本身都不算特別顯著。

Looking ahead, MS&O expense will continue to be impacted by the cycling of real estate gains, which as a reminder, totaled $36 million in the second quarter of 2013. However, there are no further gains to be cycled in the second half. In addition we continue to expect higher year-over-year expenses in the remaining quarters related to inflation and volume growth.

展望未來，MS&O費用仍將受到不動產收益回轉的影響；提醒一下，2013年第二季該項收益合計為3,600萬美元。不過，下半年將不再有進一步需要回轉的收益。此外，我們仍預期剩餘各季在通膨與運量成長帶動下，年對年費用將較高。

Finally, fuel expense was essentially flat to last year as favorable price, driven by a 5% decline in fuel costs per gallon, was offset by volume and weather headwinds. That concludes the expense review for the first quarter.

最後，燃料費用與去年大致持平；有利的價格因素（每加侖燃料成本下降5%所帶動）被運量與天候不利因素所抵銷。以上為第一季費用回顧。

Turning to the next slide, I'm pleased to announce that we'll be increasing our dividend. CSX will pay a dividend of $0.16 per share starting in the second quarter, which reflects a 7% increase versus the prior year. While this results in a dividend payout ratio slightly above our target range of 30% to 35%, it is important to note that weather-related headwinds we experienced in the first quarter are not indicative of the core earnings power of the business.

接著看下一張投影片，我很高興宣布我們將提高股利。CSX將自第二季起每股配發0.16美元股利，較前一年增加7%。雖然這使得股利支付率略高於我們30%至35%的目標區間，但重要的是，第一季遭遇的天候逆風並不代表本業的核心獲利能力。

We expect our full-year EPS to better reflect the true earnings power and to support a 30% to 35% dividend payout range in 2014. Our second-quarter dividend increase builds on the 11 increases we have made over the last 8 years, representing a 20% CAGR in a dividend over that period.

我們預期全年EPS將更能反映真正的獲利能力，並在2014年支持30%至35%的股利支付率區間。第二季的股利調升延續了我們過去8年所進行的11次調升，該期間股利年複合成長率（CAGR）為20%。

Now let me wrap it up on the next slide. First, the core earnings power of our business remains strong. Despite the very challenging operating conditions that we faced, we delivered top-line revenue growth of 2% and grew volume by 3% in this first quarter.

接下來我在下一張投影片做個總結。第一，我們業務的核心獲利能力依然強勁。儘管面臨極具挑戰的營運條件，我們第一季仍實現營收年增2%，運量成長3%。

Across the portfolio we generally have a positive outlook on the growth trajectory for our merchandise and intermodal markets. In addition, we expect 2013 was the low point for domestic coal and that volume will grow this year, whereas the export coal market continues to be volatile.

就整體組合而言，我們對商品運輸與聯運市場的成長軌跡普遍持正向看法。此外，我們預期2013年是國內煤炭的低點，今年運量將成長；而出口煤炭市場仍持續波動。

Our near-term focus is to restore superior service levels across the network as quickly as possible. We experienced significant incremental operating expense in the first quarter from weather disruptions and expect some of these costs to continue into the second quarter. While we plan to recover a portion of this lost productivity during the remainder of the year, our first priority is to restore higher service levels.

我們短期的重點是盡快在全網路恢復卓越的服務水準。第一季因天候干擾而產生顯著的額外營運費用，且預期其中部分成本將延續至第二季。雖然我們計畫在今年剩餘期間回收部分流失的生產力，但我們的首要任務是恢復更高的服務水準。

For the full year 2014 we expect to see modest earnings growth despite first-half headwinds from weather and the cycling of real estate gains. We have visibility into several million new tons of utility coal as a result of the cold winter and higher natural gas prices, which will more than offset the incremental costs incurred in the first quarter.

就2014年全年而言，儘管上半年受到天候與不動產收益回轉的逆風影響，我們仍預期獲利將溫和成長。由於寒冷冬季與天然氣價格上升，我們已掌握到數百萬噸新增的公用事業用煤需求，這將足以抵銷第一季所產生的增量成本。

Looking at 2015, it is still not clear whether our projected 2015 growth rate will be strong enough to deliver 2-year EPS CAGR of 10% to 15% across 2014 and 2015, given the modest growth expectations we have for this year. That said, we feel confident that CSX can sustain double-digit EPS growth as we get through this year.

展望2015年，目前仍不清楚我們預估的2015年成長率是否足以在2014與2015兩年合計達成10%至15%的EPS年複合成長率（CAGR），因為我們對今年的成長預期較為溫和。即便如此，我們仍有信心，CSX在度過今年之後能維持EPS雙位數成長。

That earnings growth, which will be more balanced between volume, price and efficiency, will also contribute to an improving operating ratio, which we expect to be in the mid-60%s longer term. With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

這樣的獲利成長將在運量、價格與效率之間更為均衡，也將帶動營運比率改善；長期而言，我們預期營運比率可落在60%中段。接下來我把簡報交回Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Fredrik. As you've heard this morning, this first quarter was certainly more challenging than most. And again, I thank our employees and customers for their perseverance and patience over these past few months.

謝謝你，Fredrik。如各位今早所聽到的，第一季確實比多數時候更具挑戰。我也再次感謝我們的員工與客戶在過去幾個月的堅持與耐心。

As I look ahead, we have the right people and resources in place and we're working hard to return our network to the high levels of service and reliability that we have consistently produced for our customers, while remaining a leader in one of the nation's safest industries. With that as a foundation, I am confident in the Company's ability to deliver modest growth for the full year 2014, and become more effective serving broad markets that will put the Company in a position to sustain positive earnings momentum over the long haul.

展望未來，我們已具備合適的人才與資源，並正努力讓我們的網路回到一貫為客戶提供的高水準服務與可靠性，同時持續在全國最安全的產業之一中保持領先。以此為基礎，我對公司在2014年全年實現溫和成長的能力充滿信心，並能更有效地服務廣泛市場，使公司在長期維持正向獲利動能。

In that regard we are particularly optimistic about the opportunities and plans to support increases in the intermodal and merchandise markets. Put another way, the underlying strength of our network and team, coupled with a more stable domestic coal environment and a growing economy, gives us confidence that in 2015 and beyond CSX should again sustain margin expansion and double-digits earning growth. With that, we're pleased to take your questions.

在這方面，我們對支持聯運與商品運輸市場成長的機會與計畫特別樂觀。換句話說，我們網路與團隊的內在實力，加上更穩定的國內煤炭環境與成長中的經濟，讓我們有信心在2015年及之後，CSX應能再次維持利潤率擴張與獲利雙位數成長。接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Bill Greene, Morgan Stanley.

Bill Greene，摩根士丹利。

Fredrik, can I ask you for a little bit of clarification on your guidance commentary, particularly as it relates to 2015? Because I think most of us recognize there's some extraordinary events so far this year, so we don't have the same kind of expeditions for this year.

Fredrik，我可以請你就你的指引評論做一點釐清嗎，特別是與2015年相關的部分？因為我想我們大多數人都認知到今年迄今發生了一些非比尋常的事件，所以我們對今年不會抱持同樣的預期。

But in 2015, when you think about that double-digit growth rate, what gives you confidence in it? Can you walk us through a little bit of the assumptions behind it?

但在2015年，當你談到那個雙位數成長率時，是什麼讓你有信心？你能否帶我們稍微走一遍背後的假設？

Obviously there's still concerns about how long export coal could be weak and this sort of thing. So I think it would be helpful to know what goes into that comment.

顯然大家仍擔心出口煤炭可能疲弱會持續多久之類的問題。所以我想了解那段評論的依據會很有幫助。

Sure. So take a different year. First of all we said modest earnings growth in 2014. And while we feel strong and have good confidence in what we see for 2015 as a year by itself, we're pretty bullish about the macro factors that we're seeing.

當然。所以換個角度看。首先我們說2014年是溫和的獲利成長。而且，雖然我們對2015年單獨作為一年所看到的情況感到強勁並且很有信心，但我們對目前看到的總體因素相當樂觀。

We're pretty bullish about the fact that as we get the network running better again, 2015 by itself will be a very strong year. The question is, will it be strong enough to make up for the fact that we're only making modest gains this year? And that's left to be seen.

我們也相當看好，隨著我們讓網路再次運轉得更好，2015年單就一年而言將會是非常強勁的一年。問題在於，它是否強到足以彌補我們今年僅取得溫和增幅的事實？這還有待觀察。

Clearly the domestic market on the coal side has gotten stronger over the last few months, but at the same time, we continue to see the export coal market deteriorate. So it's a little hard at this point to be too bullish about that part of the market.

很明顯，國內煤炭市場在過去幾個月已轉強，但同時我們仍看到出口煤炭市場持續惡化。因此就市場的那一部分而言，目前要過度樂觀有點困難。

Instead of getting into individual components, what I've said throughout the quarter has been from where we're seeing things right now for 2015, we're going to need some help as we think about this thing from a bottoms-up perspective. That help can come in different forms. It can come in terms of export market firming up, a little bit more domestic coal, a little bit better pricing, more productivity. We just don't know.

與其深入討論個別組成項目，我在整個季度一直在說的是，從我們目前對2015年的觀察來看，若要以由下而上的角度來思考這件事，我們將需要一些外部助力。這些助力可以有不同形式。可能是出口市場轉趨穩健、國內煤炭需求多一些、定價好一些、或生產力提升。我們就是還不確定。

But overall, 2015 by itself will be a very strong year. It is just not sure it's going to be strong enough to make up for the modest earnings growth we're seeing here in 2014.

但整體而言，單就2015年本身會是非常強勁的一年。只是還不確定它是否強到足以彌補我們在2014年看到的溫和獲利成長。

Yes. One point of clarification there, another comment you've made in the past I think on 2015, has been the sub 70% OR, so high 60%s OR in 2015. Are you walking away from that?

是的。這裡我想澄清一點，你過去對2015年還有一個評論，我記得是低於70%的營運比率（OR），也就是2015年落在60%高段的OR。你要放棄那個目標嗎？

I think the same thing holds true there. In order to get to that sub 70% operating ratio, we're going to also need some help from where we're seeing things today.

我認為同樣的道理也適用於那點。要達到低於70%的營運比率，我們也需要一些外部助力，因為以我們今天看到的情況來看就是如此。

It doesn't mean we can't get there. We're certainly going target it. We're trying to get there, but we're going to need some help from where we're seeing things today.

這不代表我們做不到。我們當然會以此為目標。我們正努力達成，但以我們今天看到的情況來看，我們需要一些外部助力。

Does the change to fixed variable costs do anything to pricing there? If domestic coal comes back, does this make pricing weaker and does that affect the view?

固定與變動成本的調整，對定價有任何影響嗎？如果國內煤炭回升，這會讓定價變弱嗎？會影響你們的看法嗎？

No, it doesn't really impact the overall trajectory.

不，這其實不會影響整體走勢。

All right. Thank you for the time.

好的。謝謝你撥冗。

Ken Hoexter, Merrill Lynch.

Merrill Lynch 的 Ken Hoexter。

Michael, you mentioned a couple times that you're prepared for a gradual recovery. Oscar mentioned a little bit about maybe not hitting the $130 million recovery this year, because some costs are coming in.

Michael，你提到好幾次你們已為逐步復甦做好準備。Oscar 也提到一點，今年可能達不到1.30億美元的復甦，因為有些成本正在進來。

We've seen volumes already up 11% quarter to date. What if we get a little bit of a sharper recovery in terms of volumes? What does that do in order to flex the network and stress test what your infrastructure is?

我們看到截至目前本季的運量已經成長11%。如果運量出現更急速的復甦，會怎麼樣？這對於彈性調整網路、以及壓力測試你們的基礎設施能力，會帶來什麼影響？

Ken, so that was a couple of questions. Specifically, restate your question a little bit, if you could.

Ken，你這裡其實問了幾個問題。可以的話，請你把問題再具體重述一下。

I'm just wondering, because you mentioned, Michael mentioned a couple times and, I think, as did you, in terms of a gradual recovery, you're prepared for that. What if we see, we've already seen volumes up 11% starting off the second quarter pretty robust.

我只是想問，因為你提到、Michael 也提到好幾次，我想你也一樣，說你們是以逐步復甦為前提並已做好準備。但如果我們看到——我們已經看到第二季一開始運量就成長11%，相當強勁。

How are you prepared, if the recovery is a little bit stronger than that? Does that mean you're fearful that if we get too much volume, it's going to stress the network too much and you wouldn't be prepared? Because you mentioned the word gradual recovery so many times.

如果復甦力道比這更強，你們準備得如何？你們是否擔心如果運量太多，會讓網路承受太大壓力、導致你們無法應付？因為你們提到「逐步復甦」這個詞很多次。

Thank you, Ken I appreciate t hat. So the gradual recovery is based on exactly the volume that we are seeing, so both backlog as well as the increased demand.

謝謝你，Ken，我很感謝你提出這點。所謂逐步復甦，是基於我們目前看到的運量，也就是積壓訂單以及需求增加。

And again, our balance between productivity and ensuring superior service levels. And so we're making sure that everyone understands that our balance is geared toward our customer.

同時也再次回到我們在生產力與確保卓越服務水準之間的平衡。因此我們要確保每個人都理解，我們的平衡點是以客戶為核心。

The volume that we're seeing today is, if you think of our annual peak periods, weeks 9 through week 23, is at the peak of it. Right now we're probably in the highest point of workload we're going to have in the course of the year. And we're slightly improving, so we feel pretty confident around that.

我們今天看到的運量，如果以年度尖峰期來看，第9週到第23週正處於尖峰。目前我們大概正處於全年工作量的最高點。而我們還在略有改善，所以我們對此相當有信心。

Given that fact, we're bringing on some more locomotives. We continue to bring crews out of training, and of course doing the hiring that's required. But no, the volume is a very welcome event for us after a couple of years of being in relatively dry.

基於這點，我們正在增加一些機車。我們也持續讓乘務人員完成訓練，當然也會進行必要的招募。但不，運量增加對我們而言是非常受歡迎的事情，因為過去幾年相對比較清淡。

Ken, this is Michael, the only thing I'd add to that is obviously with that demand, which I think we're doing a reasonable job of handling, it does slow your ability to recover. And I think the other thing I would point out is Chicago, as you know, is a key interchange.

Ken，我是 Michael，我唯一想補充的是，顯然在這樣的需求下——我認為我們處理得還算合理——它確實會放慢你們的復原速度。另外我想指出的是，如你所知，芝加哥是關鍵的轉運樞紐。

I think all the major carriers have issues around Chicago. Those will take time to work through, and it does have a cascading impact on the rest of the network.

我想所有主要承運商在芝加哥周邊都有一些問題。這些需要時間來逐步解決，而且會對網路其他部分產生連鎖影響。

We will continue to improve. I think the reason we used gradual several times, is we don't think this is going to snap back immediately. And we're trying to make people understand that.

我們會持續改善。我想我們多次使用「逐步」這個詞，是因為我們不認為它會立刻迅速反彈。我們也希望讓大家理解這一點。

But if we see a little bit stronger, is that something that you need to then reengage the One Plan from years ago? Is it evolutionary?

但如果我們看到復甦力道更強一些，那你們是否需要重新啟動幾年前的 One Plan？還是說它是循序演進的？

I'm just trying to understand. Is that something that could make this was look even worse if you get a little bit faster growth?

我只是想理解一下。如果成長速度更快一些，是否可能讓情況看起來更糟？

Well, we used the term reengage at one point. We still use the One Plan to run our railroad. But I'm not overly concerned.

嗯，我們曾在某個時點用過「重新啟動」這個詞。我們仍然用 One Plan 來營運我們的鐵路。但我並不太擔心。

I think the demand levels we're seeing out there we can handle, we will work through. I don't see that as a major risk. As Oscar said, it's an opportunity for us to help regain some of that lost earnings in the first quarter.

我認為我們目前看到的需求水準是我們可以應付的，我們也會逐步消化。我不把這視為重大風險。如 Oscar 所說，這對我們而言是個機會，有助於彌補第一季流失的一部分獲利。

Wonderful. And then just to follow-up on Bill's question there on the coal RPU. If you exclude the liquidated damages, how should we think about coal yields for the rest of the year, Fred?

太好了。接著追問 Bill 剛才關於煤炭每單位收入（RPU）那個問題。如果排除違約金（liquidated damages），Fred，我們應該如何看待今年剩餘期間的煤炭收益率？

Is that something we're going to see accelerate on the declines, given the change in contract structures? Or you could walk us through your thoughts a little bit on that?

考量合約結構的變化，我們會看到下滑幅度加速嗎？或者你能否稍微帶我們走一遍你的想法？

This is Clarence. I think you'll see the coal RPUs will be very similar to what you saw in the first quarter. Our utility north business was up about 22% in the first quarter. That tends to carry a lower RPU.

我是 Clarence。我認為你會看到煤炭 RPU 與第一季非常相近。我們北部公用事業（utility north）業務在第一季成長約22%。那通常會帶來較低的RPU。

Our southern utility was down about 6% in the first quarter. Our rates on our export coal, as we mentioned, was slightly down. That particular mix will tend to carry through here in the second quarter. You'll see something very similar on the RPU going forward.

我們南部公用事業在第一季下滑約6%。我們的出口煤炭運價，如我們提到的，略有下滑。這樣的組合在第二季大致會延續。往後你會看到非常類似的RPU表現。

Great. Appreciate the insight and time. Thank you.

很好。感謝你的見解與時間。謝謝。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski。

It's still snowing in New Jersey, by the way. So it's a pretty tough spring, as well.

順帶一提，新澤西現在還在下雪。所以這個春天也挺難熬的。

Never-ending.

沒完沒了。

I want to ask a longer-term question, Michael. Coal revenue used to be 30%-plus of your mix. It's down to close to 23%, 22% this quarter. We've seen your non-coal volume expand 3% to 4% for the last few years.

Michael，我想問一個較長期的問題。煤炭營收過去在你們的組合中曾占30%以上。這一季已降到接近23%、22%。過去幾年我們看到你們的非煤炭運量擴張了3%到4%。

What are some of the impediments that keep that non-coal growth from driving better operational margins? I'm not even talking about the quarter, but thinking longer-term, how do you get that base of revenue to drive better margins and better earnings growth looking forward?

有哪些障礙使得這些非煤炭成長無法帶動更好的營運利潤率？我甚至不是在談這一季，而是從更長期來看，未來你們要如何讓這個營收基礎帶動更好的利潤率，以及更好的獲利成長？

As Fredrik alluded to, one, obviously the coal is a high-margin business and our portfolio has changed, but we're very optimistic. If we look at our intermodal and merchandise growth, it is good margin business. We think, as we go forward, if you look at our value creation we drove in the decade prior to this, it was about two-thirds price and one-third productivity.

正如Fredrik所提到的，第一，顯然煤炭是高毛利業務，而且我們的投資組合已經改變，但我們非常樂觀。如果我們看我們的聯運與一般貨運的成長，那是毛利不錯的業務。我們認為，往前看，如果你回顧我們在此之前十年所推動的價值創造，大約是三分之二來自價格、三分之一來自生產力。

As we look at the Company going forward, we still see strong value creation opportunities, but it will be more balanced. Not exactly one-third, one-third, one-third, but it's going to be continued productivity, continued pricing above rail inflation and adding the element of growth.

展望公司未來，我們仍然看到強勁的價值創造機會，但會更為均衡。不會精確地是一比一比一，但將會是持續提升生產力、持續實現高於鐵路通膨的定價，並加入成長這個要素。

The intermodal margins are very nice now that we have basically double-stack economics and the density of lanes. And the other business we're growing, the crude by rail, the growth in our other merchandise businesses are all good margin businesses that will help drive us to that mid-60%s operating ratio long term.

在我們基本上具備雙層堆疊的經濟效益以及路線密度之後，聯運的利潤率非常不錯。而我們正在成長的其他業務——鐵路運輸原油，以及其他一般貨運業務的成長——都是毛利良好的業務，將有助於長期把我們推向約60%中段的營運比率。

Okay. At what point, though, do you need still coal revenue stabilization in order to overall expand margins for the business? Is that what we're hearing today?

好的。不過，在哪個時間點，你仍然需要煤炭營收穩定，才能讓整體業務的利潤率擴張？這是我們今天聽到的意思嗎？

Well, we do need the coal to stabilize and we think we're getting fairly close to that point now. This cold winter, the only blessing of this cold winter is it did draw down those stockpiles.

嗯，我們確實需要煤炭穩定下來，而且我們認為現在已經相當接近那個點。這個寒冷的冬天，唯一的好處是它確實消化了那些庫存。

Actually, as Clarence alluded to, the demand in the north is very strong and actually the stockpiles are below where they ideally would like to have them. And the overhang we've been living with in the south for the last couple years, about three-quarters of that was eliminated here. So we really do see that domestic as very strong.

事實上，正如Clarence提到的，北方需求非常強，庫存其實低於他們理想希望維持的水準。而我們過去幾年在南方一直承受的供給過剩壓力，其中大約四分之三在這裡已被消化。所以我們確實認為國內市場非常強勁。

Just to add, Brandon, also in terms of underlying core earnings power of our Company over the last two years, it's been pretty strong. We still think in that double-digit earnings range. The issue has been $800 million of coal revenue that has gone away.

再補充一下，Brandon，就我們公司過去兩年的核心獲利能力而言，其實相當強勁。我們仍然認為是在雙位數的獲利區間。問題在於有8億美元的煤炭營收消失了。

And in this year, we're still seeing some headwinds in coal, which is why we only feel that we're going to have modest earnings growth. But we're pretty confident, as I said, once we get through this transition that we're going to return to that more normalized earnings growth going forward.

而在今年，我們仍然看到煤炭方面的一些逆風，這也是為什麼我們只覺得獲利會是溫和成長。但我很有信心，如我所說，一旦我們度過這段轉型期，未來我們將回到較為正常化的獲利成長。

Okay. Appreciate it, guys. Thank you.

好的。謝謝各位。謝謝。

Chris Wetherbee, Citi.

Citi的Chris Wetherbee。

Clarence, can I ask for a little bit of clarification on your comments around the export coal market? I think you included it in the neutral category in the outlook. I want to get a rough sense of how you think about that relative to the full-year target I think you still said in the mid-30 million ton range.

Clarence，我可以請你釐清一下你對出口煤市場的評論嗎？我想你在展望中把它歸在中性類別。我想大致了解一下，你如何看待這點，相對於你仍提到的全年目標大約在3,000多萬噸的區間。

Should we expect a bit of an absolute tonnage step up in the second quarter? Which I guess would be a little bit more neutral. Or is that still going to be a little bit under pressure on a year-over-year basis?

我們是否可以預期第二季的絕對噸數會有一些提升？我想那會比較偏中性。或者在年對年的基礎上仍會有一些壓力？

Well, it's a little too soon, Chris, to see what this export coal business is going to do. Frankly it's a lot stronger in this first quarter than I anticipated that it would be. So we're sticking with mid-30s throughout the year.

嗯，Chris，現在要判斷這個出口煤業務會怎麼走還有點太早。坦白說，第一季的表現比我原先預期強很多。所以我們全年仍維持在3,000多萬噸中段的指引。

We've got, in the second quarter right now, about 80% of what we project for the quarter is tied up under contracts. And that's obviously subject to market conditions. We think we've hit pretty much the bottom in where the global price of coal is going to be.

就目前第二季而言，我們對該季的預估量大約有80%已透過合約鎖定。當然這也會受到市場狀況影響。我們認為全球煤價大致已經觸底。

The thermal is very low right now in Europe. The metallurgical prices are very low over in Queensland right now.

目前歐洲的動力煤價格非常低。昆士蘭那邊的冶金煤價格也非常低。

So as we move towards the middle of the year, we expect to see a more firming in the rate structure. And we can tell you a little bit more toward the middle of the year what it looks like. But right now we're sticking pretty much to the mid-30 ton, mid-30s in the export market.

因此，隨著我們進入年中，我們預期運價結構會更趨穩固。到年中左右，我們可以再提供更多資訊，讓大家了解情況。但目前我們基本上仍維持出口市場在3,000多萬噸中段的看法。

Okay, that's helpful. I appreciate that. And then Fred, I think three months ago you mentioned that the first half of the year, when we thought about 2014, was going to be the one where you were lapping some of the real estate gains and other stuff that you had in 2013.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝。另外，Fred，我記得三個月前你提到，當我們看2014年時，上半年會面臨2013年房地產收益以及其他項目的比較基期。

When you look at the second quarter, with volumes bouncing back but still some costs lingering, is that still the right way to think about -- the first half is going to be a bit flat to downish on a year-over-year basis? And then you get a little bit of upside? Is that how your plan is building if you think about 2014 showing modest growth?

當你看第二季，運量回升但仍有一些成本殘留，這仍然是正確的思考方式嗎——也就是上半年在年對年基礎上會有點持平到略降？然後之後會有一些上行空間？如果你們認為2014年是溫和成長，你們的計畫是這樣建構的嗎？

I would say probably flattish is a good way to think about the second quarter. I think we feel very good about the top line.

我會說，用「大致持平」來看第二季可能是個不錯的方式。我想我們對營收端感覺非常好。

I think that you have still those things to cycle that you talked about, real estate gains. Based on what I said earlier, liquidated damage will probably be down a little bit in the second quarter as well.

我想你仍然會有你提到的那些需要消化的項目，例如房地產收益。根據我先前所說，第二季的違約金收入（liquidated damage）也可能會略微下降。

And then we will have some lingering costs here for a period of time, because of the fact that a network is not running as well. But offsetting that is a more vibrant top line, especially on the coal side than we expected.

然後我們會在一段時間內承擔一些殘留成本，因為網路運行狀況還沒有那麼順暢。但可抵銷的是，營收端更有活力，尤其是煤炭方面比我們預期更好。

So I think flat is probably a good place in the second quarter. And then from there be able to produce earnings growth for the rest of the year to get into the modest earnings growth for the year.

所以我認為第二季持平大概是個合理的位置。接著從那裡開始，在今年剩餘時間能夠帶來獲利成長，從而實現全年溫和的獲利成長。

Do you think you're mostly caught up on volume by the end of the second quarter, is that how the plan would trend?

你認為到第二季末，你們在運量方面大致就能追上進度嗎？計畫的走勢會是這樣嗎？

I would think that based on what you've seen here the last few weeks where volumes are up double digits, that that would be a good assumption.

我認為，根據你在過去幾週看到的運量呈現雙位數成長，這樣的假設是合理的。

Okay. Thanks very much for the time. I appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝你撥冗。謝謝。

Allison Landry, Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse的Allison Landry。

I wanted to ask a question about core operating margins. If I'm adjusting both this quarter and the prior year for all the unusual items including weather, liquidated damages, real estate gains, fuel lag, et cetera, doesn't appear that there was very much operating leverage on the 3% volume growth during the quarter. So I wanted to ask how we should think about contribution margin for the balance of the year, considering both the rate cuts on the export coal side and the fact that you plan to bring on additional locomotives and people.

我想問一個關於核心營運利潤率的問題。如果我把本季與去年同期所有不尋常項目（包括天氣、違約金、房地產收益、燃油落後效應等等）都調整掉，看起來本季在運量成長3%的情況下，營運槓桿並不明顯。所以我想請問，我們應該如何看待今年剩餘時間的貢獻毛利，考量到出口煤那邊的降價，以及你們計畫增加機車與人力的事實？

Yes. So obviously it was a noisy quarter in terms of the ins and outs. But I think you're right, if you do adjust for the real estate gains in both years, you adjust for the fact that you did have weather impact here. You will see that you have modest earnings growth, year-over-year. That doesn't even factor in also the fact that we had taken our export rates down quite significantly.

是的。所以很明顯，這一季在各種因素進進出出之下相當嘈雜。但我想你說得對，如果你把兩年的房地產收益都調整掉，也調整掉這次的天氣影響，你會看到年對年仍有溫和的獲利成長。這甚至還沒有把我們已大幅下調出口運價這件事納入考量。

So once you adjust for all these things, as I said in my previous answers, the core earnings growth of our Company and margin expansion is still very healthy. We are just dealing with a lot of factors right now that we have to cycle through.

因此，一旦把所有這些因素都調整掉，如我在先前回答中所說，我們公司的核心獲利成長與利潤率擴張仍然非常健康。只是我們目前正面對許多因素，需要逐一度過比較基期。

As we get through this, real estate gains will be behind us here as we get through the second quarter. We're at the tail end, I think, of what we reasonably can do on the export side.

隨著我們度過這段期間，房地產收益在我們這裡將會在第二季結束後成為過去式。我認為，就出口端而言，我們已經接近在合理範圍內所能做的尾聲了。

And the rest of the business is doing good. Coal on the domestic side is coming back. We feel we're going to return back to normal incremental margins going forward, but it's just a lot of noise right now that prevents that from coming down to the bottom line.

而其餘業務表現良好。國內端的煤炭正在回升。我們認為，往後我們將回到正常的增量利潤率，但目前雜音很多，導致這些效益無法反映到最終盈餘。

Okay. And a follow-up question on the tax rate benefit during the quarter. I did notice that there was a comment in the earnings review that the future corporate tax rate would be reduced. Should we expect a similar tax rate as we saw in 1Q? Or was there any prior-period catch up?

好的。另外追問一下本季稅率利益的問題。我確實注意到在財報回顧中有提到未來公司稅率將會降低。我們是否應該預期會出現與第一季相近的稅率？或者是否有任何前期追溯調整（catch up）？

This is a state legislative tax change that impacted our earnings by $0.02 here in this quarter that made the effective tax rate 34%. If you adjust out for that, we were right at 37.6%.

這是一項州立法的稅制變更，本季對我們的盈餘影響為每股0.02美元，使有效稅率為34%。若將該因素調整掉，我們的稅率約為37.6%。

Our guidance has always been somewhere around 38% as a conservative place to be. We think that should be the place going forward as well.

我們的指引一向是以約38%作為較保守的水準。我們認為未來也應該會維持在這個水準。

Okay. In terms of the comments that said that this will reduce the future corporate income tax rate, is that -- ?

好的。就那些評論提到這將降低未來公司所得稅率而言，那是——？

I don't know about that comment. Maybe David can start later on. But nothing has changed in terms of our overall tax rate. We would like to, of course, have a lower tax rate, but nothing is imminent around that.

我不清楚那段評論。也許稍後David可以先說明。但就我們整體稅率而言，沒有任何改變。當然我們希望稅率能更低，但目前沒有任何迫在眉睫的變動。

Perfect. Thank you so much.

太好了。非常感謝。

Rob Salmon, Deutsche Bank.

Rob Salmon，德意志銀行。

Fred, you had called out about 7 million incremental utility coal tons you guys are going to be taking on that you've got now line of sight into the back half of the year. How should we think about this as we look out to 2015 as well?

Fred，你提到你們將承接約700萬噸的公用事業煤炭增量，而且你們現在已能掌握下半年可見度。我們在展望2015年時，應該如何看待這件事？

Does this give you guys conviction that we're going to see utility coal volume at least stabilize to growth as we look out? Even in spite of some of the 4 million tons that you're expecting to go away in 2014 and 2015 from some plant closures?

這是否讓你們更有信心，展望未來公用事業煤炭運量至少會趨於穩定甚至成長？即便你們預期2014與2015年會因部分電廠關閉而減少約400萬噸？

A couple of things there in your question, just to clarify. First of all, we do see several million tons of incremental demand here this year because of the cold winter.

你這個問題有幾點，我先釐清一下。首先，因為寒冷的冬季，我們確實看到今年有數百萬噸的增量需求。

Then I think your question was around 2015 and beyond, the impact of MATS. What we have said is that as we look at the movements of coal for 2013 into plants that we expect to be closed because of MATS, we had identified 7 million tons that we think is going to come out between 2014 through 2018 essentially.

接著我想你的問題是關於2015年及之後，MATS的影響。我們先前說過，當我們檢視2013年運往那些因MATS而預期將關閉之電廠的煤炭流向時，我們辨識出約700萬噸，我們認為基本上會在2014年至2018年間退出。

4 million of those tons we think is going to come out in 2014 and 2015 and the remaining three in the years beyond that, between 2016, 2017 and 2018. Does that answer your question?

其中我們認為有400萬噸會在2014與2015年退出，其餘300萬噸則會在之後的年度，也就是2016、2017與2018年之間退出。這樣有回答到你的問題嗎？

That answers the question. With regard to this several million tons that are coming out in the back half of the year, will we have continued -- are you expecting that -- do you have line of sight in terms of that traffic looking out to 2015 as well? Where you've got a lot of conviction that utility coal volumes have at least stabilized and are growing as we look out over the next several years?

有回答到。關於下半年增加的這數百萬噸，你們是否預期——你們是否也能掌握2015年的可見度？也就是說，你們是否相當有信心，公用事業煤炭運量至少已經穩定，並且在未來幾年會成長？

Rob, this is Clarence. We expect that our growth in coal continues through 2015. In fact, the growth for the rest of this year in utility coal will be in the mid to the high single-digits.

Rob，我是Clarence。我們預期煤炭業務的成長會延續到2015年。事實上，今年剩餘期間公用事業煤炭的成長將落在中到高個位數百分比。

A lot of those plants that Fredrik is talking about that will be closing those years in terms of tons. The other plants that will remain open will simply run harder to absorb those tonnage.

就Fredrik提到那些在相關年度將關閉的電廠及其噸數而言，其他仍會營運的電廠將會提高運轉率，以吸收那些噸數。

Thanks. Appreciate the color.

謝謝。很感謝你提供的補充說明。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

Bascome Majors，Susquehanna。

One for Clarence here. We've talked pretty extensively about export coal pricing pressure over the last couple of years. You've said again today that you're at the end of what you can do to help incentivize your customers' competitiveness in that market.

有一題給Clarence。過去幾年我們相當深入地討論了出口煤炭的價格壓力。你今天再次表示，你們已經到了所能做的尾聲，無法再進一步透過讓利來激勵客戶在該市場的競爭力。

If my math is right, it looks like the yields have come down a bit on domestic side of the business over the last few quarters as well. I know you called out mix earlier, but can you directionally walk us through what's driving that drop in domestic yields between mix and any pricing or fuel that's in there as well?

如果我算得沒錯，過去幾季你們國內業務的單位收益（yield）似乎也略有下滑。我知道你先前提到組合（mix），但你能否從方向性角度帶我們了解，國內單位收益下滑是由組合所致，還是也包含任何定價或燃料等因素？

Well, as I said earlier on the mix side, the price played preponderantly in the mix. The utility coal, which carries a much lower rate than does the northern utility coal, which carries a much lower rate than the southern utility coal, is up about 22% this year.

嗯，如我先前所說，就組合面而言，價格在組合中占了主要影響。公用事業煤炭的費率遠低於北部公用事業煤炭，而北部公用事業煤炭的費率又低於南部公用事業煤炭；今年公用事業煤炭約成長了22%。

The southern utility coal, which carries a considerably higher rate due to the much longer length of haul, was down about 6%. Then when you put in the export coal, which we said has been slightly down in terms of rate, those three combinations have led to the lower RPU.

南部公用事業煤炭因運距更長而具有顯著較高的費率，但其運量約下滑了6%。再加上出口煤炭（我們說過其費率略有下降），這三者的組合導致每單位收入（RPU）較低。

Very little of that has been driven at all by the fixed variable charges in our coal rate. So that's the principal and preponderant driver.

其中幾乎沒有任何部分是由我們煤炭運價中的固定/變動費用所驅動。所以這就是主要且最關鍵的驅動因素。

Okay. And a bit more broadly on a similar theme, you talked about competitive gains helping your domestic coal volumes this quarter. What's the competitive dynamic like in that business today?

了解。再更廣泛一點、同樣的主題，你提到本季競爭性勝出帶動了你們的國內煤炭運量。目前該業務的競爭態勢如何？

Has the volatility we've seen over the last couple years given you more opportunities to go after your competitors' business? And vice versa them after yours?

過去幾年我們看到的波動，是否讓你們有更多機會去爭取競爭對手的業務？反過來他們是否也更容易搶你們的業務？

Not really. It was a single account in the north that the customers put up for competitive bid. And it did involve the one-time issue. We really haven't had many opportunities in that area at all.

其實沒有。那是北部的一個單一客戶帳戶，客戶拿出來進行競標。而且那涉及一次性的因素。在那個領域我們其實沒有太多機會。

Is there any way to quantify how much of that is driving your domestic gain that you talked about in the previous question?

有沒有辦法量化一下，你在前一題提到的國內增量中，有多少是由那件事所帶動？

Very little is driving our domestic gain in that area. Most of it has been as a result of a burn in the northern utilities and their stockpile depletion.

那一塊對我們國內增量的帶動非常小。大部分是因為北部公用事業的燃煤消耗增加，以及其庫存堆場（stockpile）被消耗下降。

All right. Thanks for the time this morning.

好的。謝謝你今天早上的時間。

Jeff Kauffman, Buckingham.

Jeff Kauffman，Buckingham。

I think the point on the weather has been well made but I have a question concerning some of the noise we've been hearing on the regulatory side. I don't know if your prepared to comment, but there recently were hearings on competitive switching. They've put out some requests for recommendations on the revenue adequacy questions.

我認為關於天氣的重點已經講得很清楚了，但我有一個問題是關於我們在監管面聽到的一些雜音。我不確定你是否準備好評論，但最近就競爭性轉換（competitive switching）舉行了聽證會。他們也就收入充足性（revenue adequacy）問題提出了一些徵求建議的要求。

How do you view the regulatory environment right now? And what are your thoughts out there on some of the discussions?

你如何看待目前的監管環境？對於這些討論，你有什麼看法？

Jeff, this is Michael. So on the ex-parte 711, which is the NIT League proposal, as you're well aware, we did testify at the March 26 hearing opposing that proposal. Because it basically provides no public benefit at all.

Jeff，我是Michael。關於ex-parte 711（也就是NIT League的提案），如你所知，我們在3月26日的聽證會上作證反對該提案。因為它基本上完全沒有任何公共利益。

The only possible beneficiaries, and you may recall there was a study commissioned by the STB a number of years ago by the Christensen Group, is that very few shippers would benefit to the detriment of everyone else. And we think that's still true.

唯一可能的受益者——你可能還記得，幾年前 STB 委託 Christensen Group 做過一項研究——是只有極少數託運人會受益，而代價是讓其他所有人受損。而我們認為這點至今仍然成立。

It would degrade service. It would drew introduce uncertainty in the marketplace, disrupt our plans for growth and capital investments, strand prior investments. If you think about it, our witness, Cressie Brown, at the hearing did say that you could introduce a perpetual winter like we've just seen because you'll be putting unnatural moves in there. So we're hopeful that the STB, in its wisdom, will not do anything to disrupt what is working quite well today for our customers.

這會降低服務水準。這會在市場上引入不確定性，打亂我們的成長與資本投資計畫，並使先前的投資被擱置、甚至淪為沉沒成本。如果你仔細想想，我們的證人 Cressie Brown 在聽證會上確實提到，你可能會引入像我們剛經歷的那種「永久寒冬」，因為你會在系統中加入不自然的調度動作。因此我們希望 STB 以其智慧，不要做任何會破壞目前對我們客戶而言運作良好的機制之事。

On the side of the revenue adequacy piece, we actually welcome that examination. As you know, that's an issue that's I think right for ripe for examination in that no time in the past have the revenues even been anywhere close to revenue adequacy.

至於「收入充足性」這一塊，我們其實歡迎這項檢視。如你所知，這個議題我認為確實已經成熟、適合檢討，因為過去從未有任何時候收入甚至接近收入充足。

Some of us are approaching that, but there's issues around what is sustained revenue adequacy? How many years do you have to be doing it through a business cycle? What is the appropriate criteria?

我們當中有些公司正逐步接近，但仍有一些問題，例如什麼叫做「可持續的收入充足」？你必須在一個景氣循環中維持多少年？適當的判定標準是什麼？

And we've really welcomed that examination to try to bring better clarity to what will happen as the railroads continue to grow in their financial health. And we like to bring the question of replacement costs into that equation, because we do have to replace old assets with new dollars. We think that's a really ripe one and we're glad that they've called for it.

我們非常歡迎這項檢視，藉此更清楚地釐清：當鐵路公司財務體質持續改善時，將會發生什麼。我們也希望把「重置成本」納入這個方程式，因為我們確實必須用新的資金汰換老舊資產。我們認為這個議題非常值得深入探討，也很高興他們提出了這項要求。

Okay. Thank you very much and congratulations.

好的。非常感謝，也恭喜你們。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Want to clarify one thing, Clarence. Did you have to take the export rates down further in 2Q as the new benchmark kicked in?

想釐清一件事，Clarence。在第二季，隨著新的基準生效，你們是否必須進一步下調出口運價？

Scott, we did in a couple of lanes with a couple of customers to make them competitive, yes.

Scott，我們在幾條路線、針對幾位客戶確實有下調，以維持他們的競爭力，是的。

Okay. On the intermodal side, so nice volume growth but still some pressure on the yields. And wondering if that's a pricing thing. Is that mix?

好的。在聯運方面，運量成長不錯，但單位收益仍有些壓力。我想知道這是定價問題嗎？還是組合（mix）因素？

I wouldn't think it's mix, with domestic growing faster than International, but maybe it's mix. Then with the truck load pricing that's really starting to get better, should we start to think about your intermodal pricing getting better going forward?

我原本不認為是組合，因為國內業務成長快於國際業務，但也許確實是組合。另外，卡車整車（truckload）價格確實開始改善，那我們是否可以開始預期你們的聯運定價未來也會改善？

Two answers. It was definitely as specifically weather-related, it was definitely in mix, it was in our door-to-door product. It had almost a 2.5% impact.

兩個回答。就天氣相關的影響而言，確實是組合因素，主要在我們的門到門產品。其影響接近 2.5%。

It was in the spot market where we couldn't price because of the weather-related issues this quarter. The other pricing and the other areas was positive.

影響出現在現貨市場，因為本季天氣相關問題，我們無法有效定價。其他定價以及其他領域則是正向的。

Yes, we are seeing a firming in the spot market with truck capacity tightening up in the US in just about every regional area that we serve. So you are seeing a more firming in truck pricing.

是的，我們看到現貨市場正在轉強，美國各個我們服務的區域幾乎都出現卡車運能吃緊。因此你會看到卡車運價更趨堅挺。

Okay, great. And last thing maybe for Oscar or Michael. You guys have done such a great job taking resources out of the network following 2008, 2009. After a winter like this and maybe with volumes getting better, are there longer-term implications of do you need to spend more capital or bring back on a more sustainable basis, more people or equipment?

好的，很好。最後一個問題，可能給 Oscar 或 Michael。你們在 2008、2009 年之後把網路資源精簡得非常到位。經歷這樣的冬季、且運量可能回升之後，長期來看是否意味著你們需要投入更多資本，或以更可持續的方式補回更多人力或設備？

Scott, it's Oscar. Being the operations and no longer the financial guy, I can always use a little more capital here and there. But generally, we had adequate level of resources.

Scott，我是 Oscar。既然我現在負責營運、不再是財務那位，我隨時都能在這裡那裡多用一點資本。但整體而言，我們的資源水準是足夠的。

It's just the winter conditions were harsher than in a long, long period of time, which created a little bit of a logjam. I think there's a high level of learnings we've had operationally, that we'll obviously include.

只是這個冬季的嚴酷程度，是很長、很長一段時間以來少見的，因而造成了一些壅塞。我認為我們在營運上學到了很多，當然也會把這些納入後續作法。

But we went into the year, into the start of the year, with more locomotives. We've done a lot of the work on the line of road over the course of time.

但我們在年初、在年度開始時，就已配置了更多機車。而且我們長期以來已在幹線（line of road）上做了大量工作。

From a long-term perspective, there are places that we will strategically review over the coming thing. Nothing immediately evident that would have been that helpful.

從長期角度來看，有些地方我們會在接下來一段時間進行策略性檢視。目前沒有任何立即顯而易見、且當時若做了就會很有幫助的項目。

Chicagoland Terminal, which as you know, is the interchange between all of the different railroads, that's where the CREATE Project is really making a lot of that investment. I think continuing that is probably the biggest investment the industry can make to make that fluidity in that location better.

芝加哥地區的終端場站（Chicagoland Terminal），如你所知，是各家鐵路之間的交會轉運點；CREATE 計畫正是在那裡投入大量資本。我認為持續推進該計畫，可能是本產業能做的最大投資，以改善該地點的流動性。

Any implications on capital? Sounds like not really.

對資本支出有任何影響嗎？聽起來似乎沒有太多。

Not from a CSX perspective.

以 CSX 的角度來看，沒有。

All right. Thanks for the time, guys.

好。謝謝各位的時間。

Jason Seidl, Cowen & Company.

Jason Seidl，Cowen & Company。

Two quick questions here. One for Oscar, I'm sorry, one for Clarence. Clarence, you mentioned you guys had to bring down some of the export rates due to the benchmark weakening a bit. If the benchmark starts recovering, how quickly can you bring those rates back up?

這裡兩個簡短問題。一個給 Oscar——抱歉，一個給 Clarence。Clarence，你提到因為基準走弱了一點，你們不得不下調部分出口運價。如果基準開始回升，你們能多快把那些運價調回去？

Within a quarter.

一個季度內。

Within a quarter? Okay. And the next question is for Michael. Michael, I've done this a while and Chicago has always been the major interchange issue for the rail industry.

一個季度內？好的。下一個問題給 Michael。Michael，我做這行一段時間了，芝加哥一直是鐵路產業最大的轉運瓶頸。

It should have improved over the last 10 years with the CN taking EJ&E and taking some pressure off of that downtown area. What's needed going forward in terms of capital investments by the railroads, maybe as jointly or with some help from the government? Because it's pretty much still a sore point after all these years.

過去 10 年，隨著 CN 收購 EJ&E、把部分壓力從市中心區域移開，情況理應有所改善。往後在資本投資方面需要什麼——可能是鐵路公司共同投入，或需要政府協助？因為這麼多年過去，這幾乎仍然是個痛點。

Well, two things. One, you're certainly correct, we need to put some better infrastructure in. That is the CREATE Project which we're in the process of working. There's money from the railroads, from the State of Illinois and federal money to improve the fluidity in Chicago.

嗯，兩點。第一，你說得完全正確，我們需要建置更好的基礎設施。那就是 CREATE 計畫，我們正在推進中。資金來源包括鐵路公司、伊利諾伊州政府以及聯邦資金，用以改善芝加哥的運行流暢度。

But I will remind you though, it's funny, we looked at the statistics in Chicago going back to, I think 1871, they kept records from then. Normally you can have a cold winter or you can have a snowy winter. You rarely have both. This was the third snowiest winter in Chicago, the third coldest winter in Chicago.

不過我也提醒你一點，很有意思的是，我們回頭看了芝加哥的統計資料，追溯到我記得是 1871 年，他們從那時就有紀錄。通常你可能會遇到寒冷的冬天，或是多雪的冬天。但很少同時兩者兼具。而這次是芝加哥史上第三多雪的冬天，也是第三寒冷的冬天。

I think they had 32 snow days, they closed schools in Chicago, which is really rare. So this is an extraordinarily tough winter that exacerbated some of the natural challenges in Chicago.

我想他們有 32 個下雪日，芝加哥甚至停課，這是非常罕見的。所以這是一個極其嚴峻的冬季，讓芝加哥一些原本就存在的挑戰更加惡化。

So yes, as an industry we are putting more capital in there. But I think we do need to put the context of how severe this winter was when we think of what happened this year.

所以是的，從產業角度我們正在投入更多資本。但我認為，在回顧今年發生的事情時，我們也需要把這個冬季的嚴重程度納入脈絡。

And does what happened this year maybe accelerate some of the industry's plans to fix Chicago?

那今年發生的事情，是否可能加速產業修復芝加哥問題的部分計畫？

Quite frankly, the railroad piece, the money for the railroad elements of it, because CREATE not only helps the rail freight infrastructure, it also helps the commuters. It also helps the interface at grade crossings and those sorts of things. The money related to the rail freight infrastructure is being provided by the rails today.

坦白說，就鐵路這一塊、也就是 CREATE 計畫中鐵路相關要素的資金而言，因為 CREATE 不僅改善鐵路貨運基礎設施，也有助於通勤運輸。它也改善平交道等介面以及諸如此類的事項。與鐵路貨運基礎設施相關的資金，目前是由鐵路公司提供。

The federal and state money for the other aspects, the commuter and the interface crossings, et cetera, is coming a little bit slower, because of some of the budget challenges, both state and federally. So that's moving at a slower pace, but the freight piece is moving forward faster.

聯邦與州政府用於其他面向（如通勤與介面平交道等）的資金，因為州與聯邦層面的一些預算挑戰，撥付速度稍微慢一些。所以那部分推進較慢，但貨運這一塊推進得更快。

Okay. Gentlemen, thank you for the time.

好的。各位先生，感謝撥冗。

Ben Hartford, Robert W. Baird.

Ben Hartford，Robert W. Baird。

Just want to circle back. Fredrik, I know we addressed this earlier in the Q&A, but in terms of abandoning that sub 70% OR target for 2015, I want to understand the reasons. I believe it's on the export coal side, specifically on the pricing side.

我想再回到先前的話題。Fredrik，我知道我們在先前的問答中已經談過，但就放棄 2015 年低於 70% 的 OR（營運比率）目標而言，我想了解原因。我認為主要是在出口煤炭端，特別是定價方面。

Clarence, I think you as well had made a comment about volumes, frankly, in the first quarter being slightly stronger than you guys had anticipated. And we know that the settlement prices are lower here on the margin in the second quarter.

Clarence，我想你也提到過，坦白說，第一季的運量比你們原先預期略強。而我們也知道，第二季邊際上的結算價格更低。

Fredrik, maybe you could provide some context into really what is driving the lack of confidence there for 2015, in terms of that line of sight to the sub 70% OR. And when you say that you will need some help, is it simply on the export coal pricing front? Or are there other opportunities even at current pricing levels in the export market that would allow you, that would provide for that help to get back into that sub 70% OR range for 2015?

Fredrik，也許你可以提供一些背景，究竟是什麼驅動了你們對 2015 年缺乏信心，尤其是對達成低於 70% OR 的可視性。另外你提到需要一些「幫助」，是否只是出口煤炭定價面的幫助？或者在目前出口市場的定價水準下，是否還有其他機會能提供這種幫助，讓你們在 2015 年回到低於 70% OR 的區間？

Sure. I wouldn't say we abandoned it. What we said is that we need some help from where we see things today as we do a bottoms-up view of things, we're going to need some help. And that help can come from different places. It doesn't have to be from export coal.

當然。我不會說我們放棄了。我們的意思是，以我們今天看到的情況、用自下而上的方式來看，我們會需要一些幫助。而這些幫助可以來自不同地方。不一定要來自出口煤炭。

Particular to that, while Clarence is absolutely right, our export coal market has done better than we thought from a volume perspective. As you also heard, we will continue to make adjustments on the rate side to make sure we optimize our bottom line and of course try to do what we can to keep the US producers in the business.

就這點而言，雖然 Clarence 說得完全正確，我們的出口煤炭市場在運量面確實比我們預期更好。但你也聽到了，我們會持續在運價端做調整，以確保我們最佳化獲利，當然也會盡力讓美國生產商能夠持續經營。

At these low levels, in terms of underlying commodity prices, it is unknown to us, or it's difficult for us to predict how long this will be able to sustain, how long will the producers be able to be competitive in the marketplace? So until we see some sort of an uptick there, it's hard to be too bullish on 2015 in terms of what overall volumes will do. But it's not defined through that.

在目前這麼低的基礎商品價格水準下，我們無法確定、或很難預測這種狀況能維持多久，生產商還能在市場上保持競爭力多久？因此，在看到某種回升之前，很難對 2015 年整體運量的表現過度樂觀。但這並不是完全由那一點所決定。

If we can, as I said earlier, get help from other places as well in terms of more price, more productivity. The economy is doing well, and so we continue to target it. We continue to think that that's where we want to be.

如果我們能如我先前所說，也從其他地方獲得幫助，例如更好的價格、更高的生產力。經濟表現良好，所以我們會持續鎖定這些方向。我們仍然認為那是我們想要達到的位置。

At the same time, one of the things that we try to do as a Company is be very transparent about how we see things. That's really, I think, pretty consistent with the two public appearances I had in the quarter in terms of saying what we need in order to be able to get there.

同時，作為一家公司，我們努力做到的一件事就是非常透明地說明我們如何看待情勢。我想這也與我在本季兩次公開露面時的說法相當一致，也就是我們需要什麼才能達成目標。

We certainly haven't given up on it. We certainly haven't abandoned it.

我們當然沒有放棄。我們當然也沒有拋棄這個目標。

Of course. Okay. If I can ask a follow-on, in terms of the mid-60%s OR target longer term. Do you have comfort that at current global settlement prices on the export coal market that this mid-30 million tons run rate is an appropriate run rate going forward?

了解。好的。如果我可以追問一下，關於長期中段 60% 的 OR 目標。在目前出口煤炭市場的全球結算價格水準下，你們是否有把握，這個約 3,000 多萬噸的運行速率（run rate）是未來適當的運行水準？

And that with the components of productivity gains and volume growth and core pricing growth, you have visibility over time to be able to get to that mid-60%s OR? Is that how we should look at that longer-term target?

並且，透過生產力提升、運量成長與核心定價成長等要素，你們隨時間推進能看得到達成中段 60% OR 的路徑？我們應該用這樣的方式來理解這個長期目標嗎？

Yes. As we think about pulling the three levers that we have, price, volume, productivity, as we do our long-term modeling, we still feel comfortable that we will be able to get to that mid 60%s level. Obviously it's taking longer than we had expected because of the fact that we've lost $800 million of coal revenue in two years alone here. And we still have some headwinds we're facing this year.

是的。當我們思考可運用的三個槓桿：價格、運量、生產力，並進行長期模型推估時，我們仍然有信心能達到中段 60% 的水準。顯然，這比我們原先預期花更久時間，因為光是過去兩年我們就少了 8 億美元的煤炭營收。而今年我們仍面臨一些逆風。

But even at the current levels, as we model things out, we'll get there over time. It's just a little bit longer than we had anticipated originally.

但即使在目前的水準下，依我們的模型推估，隨時間推進我們仍會達成。只是比我們最初預期的時間稍微更長一些。

Perfect. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Securities.

Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Securities。

In her testimony before the STB last week, I think I heard Cressie Brown indicate that you'd recently acquired a new route through Chicago. And given all of the focus on Chicago currently, I wondered if you could give a bit of color on that, and how it might be strategic to you going forward.

在她上週於 STB 的證詞中，我想我聽到 Cressie Brown 表示你們最近透過芝加哥取得了一條新路線。鑑於目前大家對芝加哥的關注，我想請你們多補充一些細節，以及這對你們未來的策略意義可能是什麼。

Cherilyn, this is Michael. We acquired the Elsdon sub of the Canadian National in a swap last year. When they acquired the J, the EJ&E, they didn't need that route anymore, so we acquired that from them. We're currently, once this weather has broken, we're making improvements to that route to allow additional fluidity in the Chicago area.

Cherilyn，我是 Michael。我們在去年的一次交換交易中取得了加拿大國家鐵路（Canadian National）的 Elsdon 支線。他們收購了 J，也就是 EJ&E 之後，就不再需要那條路線，所以我們從他們那裡取得了。目前，等天氣好轉後，我們正在對該路線進行改善，以提升芝加哥地區的運行順暢度。

And how long would you expect those investments to take before you start seeing some benefits?

你們預期這些投資需要多久，才會開始看到一些效益？

Cherilyn, this is Oscar. By mid-year, let's say July, we should be fully operational.

Cherilyn，我是 Oscar。到年中，譬如說 7 月，我們應該就能全面投入營運。

Okay. And one last quick question. In terms of the double-digit volume growth that we've seen over the last couple of weeks in your carloads, do you have any feel for how much of that is pent-up demand versus real organic traffic growth?

好的。最後一個簡短問題。就過去幾週你們車皮裝載量（carloads）出現的兩位數運量成長而言，你們是否能判斷其中有多少是被壓抑的需求（pent-up demand），多少是真正的有機運量成長？

I think a lot of that is pent-up demand. But at the same time though, we still feel that the economy, as we said in the prepared remarks, continues to be very vibrant. We're also seeing our coal business finally picking up.

我認為其中很大一部分是被壓抑的需求。但同時，如同我們在事先準備的發言中所說，我們仍覺得經濟持續非常有活力。我們也看到煤炭業務終於開始回升。

So the underlying volume trend is also very positive. But there's no doubt that there's a fair amount of that double-digit volume growth that is related to just catching up with things we didn't move in the first quarter.

所以，底層的運量趨勢也非常正向。但毫無疑問，這種兩位數的運量成長中，有相當一部分只是因為追趕第一季沒有運送出去的量。

But I would add to that, the economy is forecasted to grow, let's call it roughly 3%. We think our merchandise and intermodal business, we can grow faster than that rate, which we did last year. We will do this year as well.

但我也要補充，市場預測經濟成長大約是 3%。我們認為我們的商品貨運與聯運業務可以成長得比這個速度更快，去年我們就做到了。今年我們也會做到。

So we will be some amount above what that economy is doing with the great service product we've been providing. We do need to temper that a little bit because it is pent-up demand, but it's also strong demand in the base business.

因此，憑藉我們提供的優質服務產品，我們的表現會在某種程度上高於整體經濟的成長。我們確實需要稍微保守一些，因為其中有被壓抑的需求因素，但基礎業務的需求也很強。

Great. Thank you. That's all for me.

很好。謝謝。我就問到這裡。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

David Vernon，Bernstein。

A higher level question. As you think about the slower rate of operating margin development, and keeping CapEx as high as it is, is there a point where you need to start thinking about the capital budget a little bit differently? Just to ensure overall returns are getting to an upward trajectory?

一個較高層次的問題。當你們思考營業利益率改善速度較慢、同時資本支出（CapEx）仍維持在目前這麼高的水準時，是否會有一個時間點需要開始用不同方式來思考資本預算？以確保整體報酬率能走上升軌道？

David, this is Michael. One, I think when I think of these slower operating margin growth, I don't know that I'd necessarily agree with that base premise. If we look at our business and strip out the effect of the loss of that coal business over the last couple years, we are in the high single to low double-digits growth on the other businesses. Once we get through this transition we will produce that kind of growth.

David，我是Michael。第一，當我想到這些較慢的營業利益率成長時，我不確定我會同意這個基本前提。如果我們看我們的業務，並把過去幾年煤炭業務流失的影響剔除，我們在其他業務上是高個位數到低雙位數的成長。一旦我們度過這個轉型期，我們將會產生那樣的成長。

Now, to do that we have to make the investments necessary to support it. So that 16% to 17% of revenues that we've held with the last few years, we still think that is the appropriate level.

現在，為了做到這點，我們必須進行必要的投資來支撐它。因此，過去幾年我們維持在營收的16%到17%這個水準，我們仍然認為這是適當的水準。

We do need to make strategic investments in our intermodal, as we're doing, to capture that growth opportunity. We think there are 9 million truckloads out there that we can go after and we have to make the investments necessary to do so.

我們確實需要在我們的聯運業務上進行策略性投資，正如我們正在做的，以掌握那個成長機會。我們認為外面有900萬車次的卡車貨運量是我們可以爭取的，而我們必須進行必要的投資才能做到。

So we still think the 16% to 17% is the appropriate level. And it will produce value for our shareholders as we grow the business and the margins.

所以我們仍然認為16%到17%是適當的水準。而且隨著我們擴大業務與提升利潤率，這將為股東創造價值。

You don't get concerned at all about the asset turns and created by that mix headwind towards lower revenue intermodal?

你完全不擔心資產周轉率，會因為產品組合逆風轉向較低營收的聯運而受到影響嗎？

No, because while it's lower revenue, it doesn't mean it's lower margin. So if we look at the margins on the intermodal business, it's as good as our other margins for our merchandise businesses.

不會，因為雖然它的營收較低，但不代表利潤率較低。所以如果我們看聯運業務的利潤率，它和我們其他商品運輸業務的利潤率一樣好。

So it's good margin business, it's lower RPU. But what we get paid for doing is producing margin, not necessarily revenue per unit. So we think it's good business and we'll lower the overall RPU, but we'll increase our profitability, which is what we really need to do.

所以這是高利潤率的業務，只是每單位收入（RPU）較低。但我們被支付的報酬是因為我們創造利潤率，而不一定是每單位收入。所以我們認為這是好生意，整體RPU會下降，但我們會提高獲利能力，這才是我們真正需要做的。

All right. I appreciate the time.

好。感謝你撥冗。

Walter Spracklin, RBC.

RBC的Walter Spracklin。

I just have two follow-up questions, really. One is for Clarence on the export coal side and the guidance that you provided with regards to the neutral on the second quarter.

我其實只有兩個追問。第一個是問Clarence，關於出口煤炭這一塊，以及你對第二季「持平」所提供的指引。

I know Chris asked this, but to clarify. If we reflect in, you did 11.5 million tons last year. You did 10.5 million last quarter. Even if we just say 10.5 million this quarter, it would imply a step-down of over 20% in the back half of the year to get to about 36 million tons.

我知道Chris問過這個，但我想再釐清一下。如果我們把數字帶進來，你去年做了1,150萬噸。你上季做了1,050萬噸。即使我們就假設本季也是1,050萬噸，為了達到約3,600萬噸，意味著下半年要下降超過20%。

Is that what you're guiding? Or are we giving a little bit more room for upside in the case that the back half turns out to be better than we're expecting?

這就是你們的指引嗎？還是說，如果下半年表現比我們預期更好，你們在指引上也保留了一點上行空間？

Walter, I guess if somebody was to hang me up in a corner and say what are you really guiding, I'm guiding that this market is very volatile. That at $120 a ton in Queensland, your guess is as good as mine. It is extremely volatile.

Walter，我想如果有人把我逼到牆角，問我到底在指引什麼，我的指引是：這個市場非常波動。昆士蘭煤價每噸120美元時，你的猜測跟我的一樣準。它極度波動。

With thermal coal selling in Europe between $75 and $79 a ton, some of the things that we've seen in the first quarter really defy what have been historical norms. It's highly speculative. We've worked with our producers to try to stay in the marketplace right now and it's just too soon for us to bet on.

歐洲動力煤每噸賣在75到79美元之間，我們在第一季看到的一些情況，確實違背了歷史常態。這高度投機。我們已與我們的生產商合作，試著在目前仍留在市場裡，但現在要我們押注還太早。

So we've got a fairly clear line of sight of what the next two, three months look like. But to tell you what the third and fourth quarter looks like is just going way out on a limb.

所以我們對接下來兩、三個月的情況有相當清楚的能見度。但要我告訴你第三季和第四季會怎樣，那就真的是太冒險了。

Okay, all right. That makes a lot of sense. Okay, I appreciate that color. Staying with you, Clarence, here on intermodal pricing. Again, a clarification question.

好的，好。這很合理。好的，感謝你提供這些說明。接著問你，Clarence，關於聯運定價，同樣是一個釐清問題。

A lot of moving parts in the last few quarters with regards to fuel recapture or quite the opposite, a lower fuel surcharge, firming truckload market, or trucking market. If we strip all that out now, on a base level going forward, would you see average RPU in intermodal flat or up going forward?

過去幾季有很多變動因素，像是燃油回收（fuel recapture）或相反地燃油附加費降低、整車運輸市場（truckload）或卡車運輸市場轉強。如果我們現在把這些都剔除，從未來的基礎水準來看，你認為聯運的平均每單位收入（RPU）會持平還是上升？

Up.

上升。

Okay, that's all my questions. Thanks very much.

好的，我的問題就這些。非常感謝。

Justin Long, Stephens.

Stephens的Justin Long。

First one I had was on core pricing. You talked about overall core pricing being up about 50 basis points year over year. Could you talk about the headwind this number saw from a lower level of rail inflation?

我第一個問題是關於核心定價。你提到整體核心定價年增大約50個基點。你能談談這個數字受到鐵路通膨水準較低所帶來的逆風影響嗎？

I'm just trying to understand the overall core pricing environment absent any changes in inflationary mechanisms. Would you describe it as stable? Or are you seeing some type of moderation?

我想了解的是，在不考慮任何通膨機制變動的情況下，整體核心定價環境如何。你會形容它是穩定的嗎？還是你看到某種程度的趨緩？

Well, if you saw core inflation was around 1.4% from Global Insight. When you took coal out of the mix we were at about 2.6%. That was down from what it was a year ago, which was around 3.3% in the merchandise and the intermodal markets.

嗯，如果你看到Global Insight的核心通膨大約是1.4%。當你把煤炭從組合中剔除後，我們大約是2.6%。這比一年前的水準低，當時在商品與聯運市場大約是3.3%。

So we are pricing above rail inflation in our basic markets. The coal markets are being mainly impacted and influenced by what's happening in the global coal markets. So I would tell you that we're seeing stability in our general freight and our general merchandise markets.

所以在我們的基本市場中，我們的定價高於鐵路通膨。煤炭市場主要受到全球煤炭市場動態的影響與牽動。因此我會告訴你，我們在一般貨運與一般商品市場看到的是穩定。

As we're seeing capacity demands, as just witnessed by the previous questions, we think that will firm up through the year as we go forward from where we are today. Depending on what happens in these coal markets, we think we've seen of the near bottom start to approach in global markets in coal. So the trend should be upward in the future in there.

隨著我們看到運能需求——正如前面問題所反映的——我們認為今年會逐步轉趨緊俏，相較於我們今天所處的位置。至於煤炭市場會怎麼走，取決於這些煤炭市場的變化；我們認為全球煤炭市場已開始接近近期底部。因此未來那邊的趨勢應該會向上。

Okay, thank you. That's helpful. As a follow-up, I was wondering if you could talk about the industrial development opportunity and your current pipeline of projects. It seems to be pretty robust. Is there any possible way to quantify how much this could contribute to volume growth in 2014?

好的，謝謝。這很有幫助。作為追問，我想請你談談工業開發的機會，以及你們目前的專案管線。看起來相當強勁。有沒有可能量化一下，這在2014年可能對運量成長貢獻多少？

I don't have that number right off the top of my head. I'm sorry.

我一時沒有那個數字。抱歉。

Okay. That's fine. Maybe you could provide some color on some of the opportunities as far as industrial development and what you're seeing, and how that pipeline looks in general.

好的。沒關係。也許你可以就工業開發方面的一些機會、你們看到的情況，以及整體管線的樣貌，提供一些說明。

Well, one of the things that we are seeing as a result of the expansion in the oil and the gas industry, is a lot of development is happening in the Marcellus area with fractionators either located on CSX or on the short lines that feed into CSX. We have five new fractionating facilities located on us. Each one of those are producing between 15 and 20 cars a day of by-products of the gas industry that are coming onto CSX. That's a positive for us.

好的，我們看到的一件事是，因為石油與天然氣產業擴張，Marcellus地區有很多開發正在發生，分餾廠（fractionators）不是設在CSX沿線，就是設在銜接CSX的短線鐵路上。我們有五座新的分餾設施設在我們的線上。每一座每天都會產出約15到20車的天然氣產業副產品，運到CSX上。這對我們是正面的。

We have two new ethylene crackers that have been announced on CSX as a result of that. So those tend to be, for lack of a better phrase, annuities going forward for us on CSX. So you're seeing a lot of developments in those areas.

此外，因為這些因素，CSX沿線也宣布了兩座新的乙烯裂解廠（ethylene crackers）。所以這些對我們CSX而言，往後可說是（找不到更好的說法）類似年金式的穩定貢獻。因此你會看到那些領域有很多發展。

In the last, I guess, 18 months and all, we've seen a lot of activity in general in industrial development as the economy's beginning to expand with new industries on CSX. I think last year we announced almost $1.5 billion, $2 billion worth of new industries that are locating on CSX. So you're seeing a lot of the economic activity now, as the economy's beginning to expand.

我想，在過去大概 18 個月左右，我們看到整體工業開發活動相當活躍，因為隨著新產業在 CSX 上布局，經濟開始擴張。我認為去年我們宣布了將近 15 億美元、20 億美元規模的新產業將落戶在 CSX 沿線。因此你現在看到很多經濟活動，因為經濟正開始擴張。

Okay, great. That's helpful. I'll leave it at that. I appreciate the time.

好的，很好。這很有幫助。我就先說到這裡。感謝你撥冗。

Keith Schoonmaker, Morningstar.

Morningstar 的 Keith Schoonmaker。

I'm in Chicago and actually calling you from an igloo this morning. (laughter) Appreciate those comments on uncertainty of export coal demand and wanted to turn to domestic with a couple quick questions.

我人在芝加哥，今天早上其實是從一個冰屋打電話給你們。(笑聲) 感謝你們對出口煤需求不確定性的評論，我想把焦點轉到國內市場，問幾個簡短問題。

Fredrik mentioned expectations that 2013 was probably the nadir in domestic coal volumes. I know there's no crystal ball, but I want clarify it if you're thinking that, based on current information, you expect domestic coal to be flat or up from here on indefinitely, next three to five years?

Fredrik 提到預期 2013 年可能是國內煤炭運量的谷底。我知道沒有水晶球，但我想釐清：若以目前資訊來看，你們是否認為從現在起到未來三到五年，國內煤炭將持平或上升，並且會一直如此？

No, no. We expect growth in the mid to high single digits for the rest of this year in 2014 in domestic coal.

不，不是。我們預期今年剩餘時間、也就是 2014 年，國內煤炭將以中到高個位數成長。

And then beyond the current year?

那麼在今年之後呢？

Well, I expect 2015 to also be up. I don't see much beyond 2015 right now at this point.

嗯，我預期 2015 年也會成長。但就目前這個時間點，我看不到 2015 年以後太多的能見度。

Okay. If I recall correctly Illinois and Powder River basins constitute about half of your recent utility carloads. I'd like to ask about your expectations for mix, same time period, two to three years from now?

了解。如果我沒記錯，伊利諾伊盆地與粉河盆地（Powder River）約占你們近期公用事業車皮量的一半。我想問你們對未來兩到三年同一期間的組合（mix）有何預期？

Two to three years right now, you're right. It's running just slightly above 50% in both those markets. We expect to see growth continue in both of them, particularly the Illinois basin coals.

就目前兩到三年的情況，你說得沒錯。這兩個市場合計略高於 50%。我們預期兩者都會持續成長，尤其是伊利諾伊盆地的煤。

We're actually making capital investments on that line near the Illinois basin to allow us to muster those unit trains more efficiently. When's that expected to be done, Oscar?

我們其實正在伊利諾伊盆地附近那條線路上進行資本投資，以便更有效率地編組那些整列（unit）列車。Oscar，預計何時完成？

Again, probably third quarter of this year.

同樣地，可能在今年第三季。

So we're putting infrastructure in because we do think that Illinois basin is going to be a continual growing market for us.

所以我們正在投入基礎設施，因為我們確實認為伊利諾伊盆地將會是我們持續成長的市場。

That infrastructure is track?

那個基礎設施是軌道嗎？

Yes, putting in a yard. It's a yard to be able to assemble unit trains and move them more efficiently.

是的，會建一個調車場。那是一個用來編組整列列車並更有效率運行的調車場。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Cleo Zagrean, Macquarie Capital.

Macquarie Capital 的 Cleo Zagrean。

My first question relates to, again, the outlook for the export coal market, could you help us understand your leverage to recovery in met coal across your book of business contracted in spot? And also what your assumptions are with regards to this market in your guidance for double-digit EPS growth for the next year?

我的第一個問題同樣與出口煤市場展望有關：你們能否協助我們理解，若冶金煤（met coal）復甦，你們在業務組合中「合約」與「現貨」之間的槓桿程度如何？另外，在你們對明年 EPS 兩位數成長的指引中，對這個市場的假設是什麼？

Our leverage in met coal? Is that your question?

我們在冶金煤上的槓桿？這是你的問題嗎？

The rebounds, what kind of leverage?

復甦時，會有什麼樣的槓桿？

Yes. How been at how fast can you benefit from a recovery in pricing and demand and volumes, given that you have a mix of contracted and spot business. And if you could also clarify how much of your contracted business is up for renewal this year, that would also help.

是的。考量你們的業務同時包含合約與現貨，你們能以多快的速度從價格、需求與運量的復甦中受益？另外，如果你們也能釐清今年有多少合約業務將到期續約，會很有幫助。

Okay. Our export coal business is priced on a quarterly basis. So our ability to leverage and to respond to the marketplace, we'd be able to do so only on a quarterly basis.

好的。我們的出口煤業務是以季度為基礎定價。因此我們運用槓桿、回應市場的能力，也只能以季度為單位來進行。

So if it upticks, we can move.

所以如果出現上行，我們就能跟著動？

We can respond within the quarter.

我們可以在該季度內做出回應。

All right. And with regards to your guidance for 2015, what kind of outlook do you have embedded for export coal?

了解。那就你們對 2015 年的指引而言，你們對出口煤嵌入了什麼樣的展望？

I think what we've said is that that is one market that we are concerned about, in terms of how long we can see the positive volume despite having the underlying commodity markets as weak as they are. But we haven't given a specific number in terms of what we're assuming for 2015.

我想我們說過，這是我們擔憂的一個市場：在基礎商品市場仍然如此疲弱的情況下，我們能在多長時間內仍看到正向運量。但我們沒有提供一個具體數字來說明我們對 2015 年的假設。

Thank you. And my follow-up is with regards to the past year of mid 60%s operating ratio long term. Can you help shed some light onto what you mean by long term? And the main drivers, especially from the [hard output] by this hard winter?

謝謝。我的追問是關於你們提到長期要達到 60% 中段的營運比率（operating ratio）。你們能否說明「長期」是指什麼？以及主要驅動因素，特別是這個嚴冬造成的 [hard output]？

In terms of the mid 60%s, we talked about it earlier on the call today. Because the fact that we've lost so much momentum and the $800 million of coal revenue that went away, it has been pushed out longer than we originally anticipated.

關於 60% 中段，我們今天稍早在電話會議中已談過。由於我們失去了很多動能，以及消失的 8 億美元煤炭營收，達成時間已被推遲，比我們原先預期更久。

We're going to have to get there a little differently than our original plans. But we're still confident that as we look at our long-term modeling, as we look at our pricing productivity and volume opportunities, that we will get there.

我們將不得不以與原先計畫稍有不同的方式達成。但我們仍有信心：從長期模型、定價、生產力與運量機會來看，我們會達到那個目標。

We're not going to put a timeframe on it today. Clearly that's where we need to be long-term in order to be able to reinvest in the business the way we want to be able to do.

我們今天不會給出時間表。很明顯，長期而言我們必須達到那個水準，才能以我們希望的方式再投資於業務。

So it could be three years or five, I guess?

所以我猜可能是三年或五年？

We have not put a timeframe on that.

我們尚未對此設定時間表。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Everyone, thank you for your attendance and interest in the Company. We'll talk to you again next quarter.

各位，感謝大家出席並關注本公司。我們下個季度再與各位通話。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的會議。各位可以掛線。