CSX Corporation (CSX) 2014 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation's second-quarter 2014 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2014 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

For opening remarks and introduction I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President of Capital Markets and Investor Relations for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話會議交給 CSX Corporation 資本市場與投資人關係副總裁 David Baggs 先生。

Thank you. And good morning, everyone. And, again, welcome to CSX Corporation's second-quarter 2014 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we will review this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the Investor section. In addition, following the presentation, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on that same website.

謝謝。各位早安。再次歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2014 年第二季財報簡報。我們今天上午將檢視的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可於 CSX.com 的投資人專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，同一網站也將提供網路直播與播客的重播。

Here representing CSX this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; Oscar Munoz, Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, Chief Financial Officer.

今天上午代表 CSX 出席的有：公司董事長、總裁兼執行長 Michael Ward；銷售與行銷長 Clarence Gooden；營運長 Oscar Munoz；以及財務長 Fredrik Eliasson。

Now, before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements, as well as the uncertainties and risks, that could cause performance to materially differ from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我們開始正式議程之前，先提醒各位，本簡報及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性聲明。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁中的公司揭露事項。該揭露說明了前瞻性聲明，以及可能導致實際績效與這些聲明所預期結果出現重大差異的不確定性與風險。

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. That said, with nearly 30 analysts covering CSX, I would ask as a courtesy to everyone to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question.

另外也提醒各位，在簡報結束時，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。話雖如此，由於有將近 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，為了禮貌起見，請各位將提問限制為一個主要問題及一個追問。

With that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

接下來，我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Thank you, David. And good morning, everyone. Last evening, CSX reported record second-quarter earnings per share of $0.53, up from $0.51 in the same period last year. CSX also generated record revenues of $3.2 billion for the quarter, up 7% on an 8% volume increase. These results are evidence of both broad-based economic momentum across most markets, and a transition in the energy markets that is largely behind us.

謝謝你，David。各位早安。昨晚，CSX 公布第二季每股盈餘創新高，為 0.53 美元，高於去年同期的 0.51 美元。CSX 本季營收亦創新高，達 32 億美元，在運量成長 8% 的帶動下，營收年增 7%。這些結果顯示多數市場的經濟動能廣泛回升，同時能源市場的轉型也大致已在我們身後。

We handled buying levels this quarter that exceeded our expectations, while maintaining stable operations. And we are taking additional steps to return service to the high levels that our customers have come to expect from CSX over the last few years.

本季我們處理的需求水準超出預期，同時仍維持穩定的營運。我們也正採取額外措施，將服務恢復到過去幾年客戶對 CSX 所期待的高水準。

We are excited about the growth we're seeing and what it means for the future of this Company and our shareholders. That's why we've added people and capacity, including locomotives, freight cars and infrastructure. Oscar will discuss these initiatives in more detail later in the presentation.

我們對目前看到的成長及其對公司與股東未來的意義感到振奮。因此我們增加人力與產能，包括機車、貨車車廂以及基礎設施。Oscar 稍後將在簡報中更詳細說明這些措施。

Thanks to the efforts of CSX's 31,000 employees, the Company produced record operating income of nearly $1 billion, and delivered an operating ratio of 69.3%. As we look to the back half of the year, CSX is focused on improving service levels, leveraging the growth opportunities before us, and generating modest earnings growth for the full year 2014.

在 CSX 31,000 名員工的努力下，公司創下接近 10 億美元的營業利益新高，並達成 69.3% 的營業比率。展望下半年，CSX 將聚焦於提升服務水準、把握眼前的成長機會，並在 2014 全年實現溫和的獲利成長。

Now, I'll turn the presentation over to Clarence, who will take us through the top-line results in more detail. Clarence?

現在我把簡報交給 Clarence，他將更詳細帶領我們檢視營收端的結果。Clarence？

Thank you, Michael. And good morning. The underlying macroeconomics remain strong, and our experience in the data suggests a positive outlook for growth. The Purchasing Managers Index held firm at 55.3 in June. A rating above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is expanding. This is the 13th consecutive month the PMI index has signaled expansion.

謝謝你，Michael。各位早安。整體宏觀經濟基本面仍然強勁，而我們從數據中的觀察顯示成長前景正向。採購經理人指數（PMI）在 6 月維持在 55.3。高於 50 的讀數表示製造業景氣正在擴張。這是 PMI 指數連續第 13 個月顯示擴張。

At the same time, the Customers Inventory Index remained at 46.5. A reading below 50 indicates customers' inventories are low, and suggests continued strength in demand for manufacturing output. As a result, many of the customers we serve grew at a robust pace, and most of the key indicators we track, including vehicle production, housing starts and agricultural output, point to continued expansion. Overall, demand for rail service was very strong in the second quarter.

同時，客戶庫存指數維持在 46.5。低於 50 的讀數表示客戶庫存偏低，並暗示製造業產出需求將持續強勁。因此，我們服務的許多客戶以強勁步伐成長，而我們追蹤的大多數關鍵指標（包括汽車產量、住宅開工與農業產出）也都指向持續擴張。整體而言，第二季對鐵路服務的需求非常強勁。

Now, let's look at results on the next slide. As you can see on the left side of the chart, total volume grew over 8% to nearly 1.8 million loads in the quarter, with strong growth in merchandise, intermodal and coal. Moving to the right, total revenue increased $198 million to over $3.2 billion in the quarter, reflecting overall volume growth and increased pricing across most markets. Merchandise and intermodal now account for over three-quarters of CSX's overall revenue. Total revenue includes $11 million of liquidated damages related to contract shortfalls and coal shipments. We expect similar levels in the remaining quarters of this year. Looking forward, we will be cycling $51 million of liquidated damages from the third quarter 2013.

現在，讓我們看下一張投影片的結果。如圖表左側所示，本季總運量成長逾 8%，接近 180 萬車次，商品貨運、聯運與煤炭皆呈現強勁成長。再看右側，本季總營收增加 1.98 億美元，超過 32 億美元，反映整體運量成長以及多數市場的運價提升。商品貨運與聯運目前合計占 CSX 總營收的四分之三以上。總營收包含與合約未達量及煤炭出貨相關的 1,100 萬美元違約金（liquidated damages）。我們預期今年剩餘季度將維持類似水準。展望未來，我們將在 2013 年第三季比較基期中扣除 5,100 萬美元的違約金影響。

Next, the average revenue per unit was down slightly. Here, core pricing gains in our merchandise and intermodal markets were offset by the impact of mix and lower coal revenue per unit.

接著，單位平均營收略為下降。在此，商品貨運與聯運市場的核心定價（core pricing）增幅，被組合（mix）影響以及煤炭單位營收下降所抵銷。

Finally, let's move to core pricing. Recall that same-store sales are defined as shipments with the same customer, commodity and car type, and the same origin and destination. These shipments represent 75% of CSX's traffic base for the quarter.

最後，讓我們談核心定價。請回想，同店銷售（same-store sales）定義為：同一客戶、同一商品與車型，且起訖點相同的運輸。這些運輸占本季 CSX 運量基礎的 75%。

On this basis, all-in pricing was a negative 0.6% in the quarter, reflecting continued rate pressure in export coal markets and the impact of fixed, variable contracts in the domestic utility market where volumes are now increasing. Since we continue to have greater variability in both our export and domestic coal business, reflecting global market conditions and our fixed variable contract structure, and since our merchandise in intermodal markets are becoming a larger portion of our business, we have again provided you with the same-store sales pricing for these two markets on a combined basis.

在此基礎上，本季整體定價（all-in pricing）為 -0.6%，反映出口煤市場持續的運價壓力，以及國內公用事業市場中固定/浮動合約（fixed, variable contracts）的影響；該市場的運量目前正在回升。由於我們的出口與國內煤炭業務仍呈現較大波動（反映全球市場狀況與我們的固定/浮動合約結構），且商品貨運與聯運市場在我們業務中的占比持續提高，我們再次以合併口徑提供這兩個市場的同店銷售定價資訊。

At the bottom of this panel you can see pricing for merchandise and intermodal averaged 2.6% for the quarter. This pricing gain is smaller on a year-over-year basis, but it's flat sequentially and represents a solid spread over rail inflation. That said, we remain confident that the value we create for our customers, combined with the increasing demand for our service product, provides a solid foundation for growth in pricing above rail inflation over the long term.

在此面板底部可見，商品貨運與聯運的定價本季平均為 2.6%。此定價增幅在年對年比較下較小，但與前一季相比持平，且相較鐵路通膨（rail inflation）仍有穩健的價差。即便如此，我們仍有信心：我們為客戶創造的價值，加上對我們服務產品日益增加的需求，為長期實現高於鐵路通膨的定價成長奠定了穩固基礎。

Now, let's look at the individual markets in more detail, starting with merchandise. Overall, merchandise revenue increased 11% to nearly $2 billion in the quarter. Volume in the agricultural sector was up 5%. Feed grain shipments, both domestic and export, increased sharply due to a strong 2013 harvest. In addition, ethanol shipments grew as lower corn prices resulted in higher ethanol production levels. The construction sector grew 8% overall, reflecting a rebound in shipments after the winter weather subsided, and the ongoing recovery of housing and construction activity. Finally, the industrial sector grew 11%, led by strength in the energy-related commodities including crude oil, liquefied petroleum and gas, and frac sand.

現在，讓我們更深入檢視各個市場，先從商品貨運開始。整體而言，本季商品貨運營收成長 11%，接近 20 億美元。農業部門運量成長 5%。由於 2013 年收成強勁，飼料穀物出貨（含國內與出口）大幅增加。此外，因玉米價格下跌帶動乙醇產量提高，乙醇出貨亦成長。建築部門整體成長 8%，反映冬季天候影響消退後出貨回升，以及房市與建築活動持續復甦。最後，工業部門成長 11%，主要由能源相關商品的強勁表現帶動，包括原油、液化石油與天然氣，以及壓裂砂（frac sand）。

Moving to the next slide, this will review the intermodal business. Intermodal revenue increased 6% to nearly $450 million. Total volume grew 7%, setting a new quarterly record for intermodal. Domestic volume was up 8%, driven by continued highway-to-rail conversions. International volume was up 6% year over year, reflecting continued economic growth, catch-up from the first quarter, and advanced shipments due to potential port labor issues. Total intermodal revenue per unit declined 2%, as continued core pricing gains and higher fuel recoveries were offset by unfavorable mix. Here, volume associated with our door-to-door domestic business, which has a higher-revenue per unit, declined.

接著看下一張投影片，我們將回顧聯運業務。聯運營收成長6%，接近4.5億美元。總運量成長7%，創下聯運單季新紀錄。國內運量成長8%，主要受持續的「公路轉鐵路」運輸轉換所帶動。國際運量年增6%，反映經濟持續成長、第一季的補回效應，以及因潛在港口勞資問題而提前出貨。每單位聯運總營收下滑2%，主因核心定價持續改善與燃油回收增加，被不利的產品組合所抵銷。其中，與我們門到門國內業務相關的運量（其每單位營收較高）出現下滑。

Finally, we continued to grow our intermodal business by adding new service offerings and making strategic investments. These investments include the new terminal in Winter Haven, Florida, which opened early this quarter, and the Montreal terminal, which will open later in the year. These two terminals, together, will add 350,000 in annual lift capacity. In addition, the ongoing expansion of the Northwest Ohio facility will increase this capacity by 50%.

最後，我們透過新增服務方案並進行策略性投資，持續擴大聯運業務。這些投資包括佛羅里達州溫特黑文（Winter Haven）的新場站（本季初已啟用），以及蒙特婁場站（將於今年稍晚啟用）。這兩座場站合計將新增每年35萬次的吊裝（lift）處理能力。此外，西北俄亥俄設施的持續擴建將使該處能力再提升50%。

Moving to the next slide, let's review the coal business. Coal volume increased 6% while revenue declined 3% in the quarter to $744 million. Domestic coal volume increased 15% with growth in both northern and southern utility shipments, reflecting higher gas prices, building of stockpiles for the summer cooling season, and a competitive gain. Export coal tonnage declined 12% as global market conditions for both thermal and metallurgical coals remained soft. The API2 benchmark for thermal coal remained below $75 per ton, a level where the US coals are challenged to compete. The Queensland metallurgical coal benchmark has also remained at low levels with a rate of $120 per ton. Finally, total revenue per unit was down 9% with lower export pricing, fixed variable utility contracts, and unfavorable domestic mix negatively impacting revenue per unit.

接著看下一張投影片，我們來回顧煤炭業務。本季煤炭運量成長6%，但營收下滑3%至7.44億美元。國內煤炭運量成長15%，北部與南部公用事業（電力）運輸皆有成長，反映天然氣價格走高、為夏季用電高峰建立庫存，以及取得競爭性增量。出口煤炭噸數下滑12%，因動力煤與冶金煤的全球市場狀況仍偏疲弱。動力煤API2基準價格仍低於每噸75美元，在此價位下，美國煤炭競爭力面臨挑戰。昆士蘭冶金煤基準價格也維持在低檔，約每噸120美元。最後，每單位總營收下滑9%，主要受出口價格走低、固定變動的公用事業合約，以及不利的國內產品組合影響，進而壓抑每單位營收。

Now, let me wrap up with the outlook for the third quarter. Looking forward, we expect a positive demand environment in the third quarter, with stable to favorable conditions for 88% of our markets, and unfavorable conditions for the remaining 12%.

接下來我以第三季展望作結。展望未來，我們預期第三季需求環境偏正向；我們88%的市場將呈現穩定至有利的狀況，其餘12%則為不利。

Looking at some of the key markets, agriculture is favorable and will continue to benefit from last year's record harvest. We expect growth in chemicals as we continue to capture opportunities created by expanding domestic oil and gas industry. The automotive market will grow, with North American light vehicle production expected to increase 9% in the quarter.

就幾個關鍵市場而言，農業面向有利，並將持續受惠於去年創紀錄的收成。隨著國內油氣產業擴張所帶來的機會持續釋出，我們預期化學品業務將成長。汽車市場將成長，預期本季北美輕型車產量將增加9%。

Strong intermodal growth will continue as our strategic network investments and improving service reliability support highway-to-rail conversions. We expect domestic coal volume will grow in the third quarter at double-digit rates as utilities continue to rebuild inventories. Forest products is neutral, as growth in building products due to the continued recovery of the housing markets will be offset by lower paper shipments. Export coal volume is expected to be significantly lower in the third quarter, and our best estimate of 2014 volume remains in the mid 30 million ton range, reflecting soft global market conditions, particularly in the thermal market.

在策略性網路投資與服務可靠度改善的支持下，強勁的聯運成長將持續推動「公路轉鐵路」的運輸轉換。我們預期第三季國內煤炭運量將以雙位數成長，因公用事業持續回補庫存。林產品市場為中性；住宅市場持續復甦帶動建材成長，但將被紙品運輸下滑所抵銷。預期第三季出口煤炭運量將顯著降低；我們對2014年運量的最佳估計仍在3,000多萬噸的中段區間，反映全球市場狀況疲弱，尤其是動力煤市場。

Overall, we expect high levels of demand for our service will continue into the third quarter. Thank you. And I will now turn the presentation over to Oscar to review our operating results.

整體而言，我們預期對我們服務的高需求將延續至第三季。謝謝。接下來我把簡報交給Oscar，請他回顧我們的營運結果。

Thank you, Clarence. It's great news. And good morning, everyone. As you know, we always start our operations review with a look at safety, as it is our first and foremost priority. We are proud to report that CSX remains a leader in safety amongst the class one railroads, with the train accident and personal injury rates both improving year over year. For the quarter, the train accident rate declined to 2.07, and the personal injury rate declined to 0.90, reflecting the Company's and our employees' continued commitment to community and employee safety.

謝謝你，Clarence。這是個好消息。各位早安。如各位所知，我們的營運回顧一向從安全開始，因為安全是我們最優先、也是最重要的事項。我們很自豪地報告，CSX在一級鐵路公司中仍是安全領導者，列車事故率與人身傷害率皆較去年同期改善。本季列車事故率降至2.07，人身傷害率降至0.90，反映公司與員工對社區與員工安全的持續承諾。

Let's turn to service performance on the next slide. System-wide performance is still below the level customers have come to expect from CSX, especially across our northern tier. In the second quarter, the robust demand we experienced has led to a decline in on-time originations and arrivals, as well as resource constraints in some areas of the network. In addition, line-of-road congestion has impacted train velocity and terminal dwell.

接著看下一張投影片的服務績效。全系統表現仍低於客戶對CSX一貫的期待水準，尤其是在我們的北部走廊。第二季我們所經歷的強勁需求，導致始發與到達準點率下滑，且在網路部分區域出現資源限制。此外，正線壅塞也影響列車速度與場站停留時間（terminal dwell）。

On slide 15, I'll discuss service in a bit more detail. As you can see on the chart on the left, service levels began to decline at the beginning of the year due to the historic winter we experienced. Towards the end of the first quarter we were experiencing a rapid surge in volume. Even with the significantly higher volume, service levels have stabilized, albeit at a lower level. A look at the map on the right, much of that volume growth this year has been concentrated in the northern part of our network. Traffic levels for the northern tier are up approximately 20%, with certain areas experiencing even higher growth rates.

在第15頁投影片，我會更詳細說明服務狀況。如左側圖表所示，由於我們遭遇歷史性的嚴冬，服務水準在年初開始下滑。第一季末我們又經歷運量快速激增。即使運量顯著提高，服務水準已趨於穩定，但仍維持在較低水準。再看右側地圖，今年多數運量成長集中在我們網路的北部區域。北部走廊的運量水準約成長20%，部分地區的成長率甚至更高。

Turning to slide 16, let's discuss some of the actions we're taking to support this continued growth in CSX's business. The map on the left shows four key areas where CSX has been making strategic capacity additions. And notice that many of these projects are along the northern tier and will help facilitate long-term growth across this part of our network. In the Chicago area, the addition of the Elsdon subdivision provides CSX with additional double-track miles. This allows us to operate a shorter, faster route for certain trains, diverting traffic away from other more congested routes in the area.

接著看第16頁投影片，我們來談談為支持CSX業務持續成長所採取的一些行動。左側地圖顯示CSX正在進行策略性擴充產能的四個關鍵區域。請注意，許多專案位於北部走廊，將有助於促進該網路區域的長期成長。在芝加哥地區，新增Elsdon支線（subdivision）為CSX提供更多雙線里程。這讓我們能讓部分列車行駛更短、更快速的路線，將車流自區域內其他更壅塞的路線分流。

As Clarence mentioned, we are also extending the processing capabilities at the Northwest Ohio terminal, which we expect to be complete by the end of this year. Along the river line route in New York and New Jersey we are adding more miles of double track to improve capacity along this growing and heavily traveled path from Chicago to New York. Finally, we are investing in a new coal unit train processing facility that will support the increased growth of coal coming out of the Illinois Basin.

如Clarence所提，我們也正在延伸西北俄亥俄場站的處理能力，預期在今年底前完成。在紐約與新澤西的River Line路線上，我們正增加更多雙線里程，以提升這條自芝加哥通往紐約、成長快速且交通繁忙路徑的運能。最後，我們正投資新的煤炭整列（unit train）處理設施，以支援伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin）煤炭外運量的增加。

Now, let's turn to the next slide and discuss crews and locomotives. The train and engine employee count is already up 200 since the beginning of the year, and we expect it to be up approximately 400 by the end of the year. We also have some initiatives in place to enhance workforce levels in the near term, including temporary transfers, vacation buyouts, and incentives to delay retirements.

現在我們看下一張投影片，討論乘務人員與機車。列車與機務員工人數自年初以來已增加200人，且我們預期到年底將約增加至400人。我們也已推出一些短期措施以提升人力水準，包括臨時調派、買回休假（vacation buyouts），以及延後退休的獎勵措施。

On the chart on the right, you can see our available locomotive count has increased by 10% since September of last year, as we pulled units out of storage and taken on additional leases. Looking at the second half of the year, we expect our available count to further increase as we repair and reactivate approximately 100 more locomotives. These actions will help CSX gradually restore fluidity to the network and to support growth.

從右側圖表可見，自去年9月以來，我們可用機車數量已增加10%，因我們將部分機車自封存中調出並新增租賃。展望下半年，隨著我們維修並重新啟用約另外100台機車，我們預期可用數量將進一步增加。這些行動將協助CSX逐步恢復網路運行順暢度，並支援成長。

Turning to the next slide, let me discuss the cost base. Fredrik will provide more specifics on where the cost impacts were this quarter, and what to expect going forward. Let me outline a few of the key drivers behind the $32 million of additional cost in the second quarter associated with our network performance.

接著看下一張投影片，我來談談成本基礎。Fredrik將更具體說明本季成本影響發生在哪些方面，以及未來的預期。我先概述幾項關鍵驅動因素，說明第二季與我們網路績效相關的額外3,200萬美元成本。

On the chart on the left, the number of relief starts continues to be more than double prior-year levels. In addition, overtime across the operating department also remains above prior-year levels, although it has improved sequentially from the first quarter. Now, if I could, I would say a quick thank you to our employees for their continued hard work these past few months. I greatly appreciate your professionalism and dedication to serving customers.

在左側圖表中，救援開行（relief starts）的次數仍持續高於去年同期水準的兩倍以上。此外，營運部門的加班時數也仍高於去年同期水準，儘管相較第一季已逐季改善。現在，如果可以的話，我想快速向我們的員工致謝，感謝你們在過去幾個月持續的辛勤付出。我非常感謝你們以專業與投入來服務客戶。

Now continuing with the chart and moving down, as I've discussed, our locomotive fleet has increased 10% since the beginning of the fourth quarter and 8% year over year in an effort to meet the growing demand. With many of our additions coming from short-term sources, lease expense has increased. In addition, maintenance expense is up due to the higher overall fleet count. Finally, average freight car cycle days were up 3%, reflecting the increase in transit time and leading to higher rental expense. Looking forward, these costs will subside as service levels improve.

接著看圖表並往下，如我先前所述，為了因應不斷成長的需求，我們的機車車隊自第四季初以來增加了10%，年增8%。由於新增機車中有許多來自短期來源，租賃費用因此上升。此外，因整體車隊數量提高，維修費用也增加。最後，平均貨車週轉天數上升3%，反映運輸在途時間增加，並導致更高的租車費用。展望未來，隨著服務水準改善，這些成本將會回落。

Now, let me wrap up on the next slide. Overall, service has stabilized with this higher volume, although not at the levels our customers have come to expect from CSX. At a network level, the northern tier has experienced strong double-digit growth, and Chicago, in particular, has been challenged. In response, we are working closely with our rail peers and taking near-term actions to shift resources to these high-growth areas.

接下來讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。整體而言，在更高的運量下，服務已趨於穩定，但仍未達到客戶對CSX一貫的期待水準。就網路層級而言，北部走廊出現強勁的兩位數成長，尤其是芝加哥面臨較大挑戰。為此，我們正與同業鐵路夥伴密切合作，並採取短期措施，將資源轉移至這些高成長區域。

We have plans in place to further improve our infrastructure, as well as add crews and locomotives to support ongoing growth initiatives. Also, and importantly, we have been in regular contact with our customers to provide them visibility and sincerely thank them for their patience as we work to increase their increased demand. They, and you, should be confident that our dedicated operating employees remain fully committed to restoring service levels to what our customers have come to expect from CSX.

我們已制定計畫，進一步改善基礎設施，並增補乘務人員與機車，以支援持續的成長計畫。同時也很重要的是，我們一直與客戶保持定期聯繫，讓他們掌握情況，並真誠感謝他們在我們努力因應其增加的需求期間所展現的耐心。他們以及各位都應該有信心：我們敬業的營運團隊仍全力以赴，致力將服務水準恢復到客戶對CSX一貫的期待。

With that, let me turn over the presentation over to Fredrik to review the financials.

接下來，我把簡報交給Fredrik，請他說明財務表現。

Thank you, Oscar. And good morning, everyone. Let me begin by providing a summary of our second-quarter results.

謝謝你，Oscar。各位早安。我先從第二季業績摘要開始。

Revenue increased 7% versus the prior year, on 8% higher volume, driven by broad-based strength across our merchandise, intermodal and domestic coal markets. Expenses increased 7% versus last year, driven primarily by higher volume, the cycling of real estate gains, and cost associated with network performance, which I will discuss in more detail in the coming slides. Operating income was $997 million, up 6%, or $57 million versus the prior year.

營收較去年同期成長7%，在運量成長8%的帶動下，主要來自我們的商品貨運、聯運以及國內煤炭市場的全面性強勁表現。費用較去年增加7%，主要受更高運量、不動產收益的基期因素（cycling of real estate gains），以及與網路績效相關的成本所驅動；我將在後續投影片更詳細說明。營業利益為9.97億美元，較去年同期增加6%，或增加5,700萬美元。

Looking below the line, interest expense was down $5 million versus last year, driven by favorable interest rates on debt that was refinanced in 2013, and moderately lower debt levels. Other income declined $21 million versus the prior year, primarily due to environmental charges for nonoperating site. And income taxes were $321 million in the quarter, for an effective tax rate of 37.8%. Overall, net earnings were $529 million and EPS was $0.53 per share, up slightly from $521 million and $0.51, respectively, in the prior period.

在營業利益以下項目方面，利息費用較去年減少500萬美元，主要受惠於2013年再融資債務的較有利利率，以及債務水準小幅下降。其他收益較去年同期減少2,100萬美元，主要因非營運場址的環境相關費用。本季所得稅費用為3.21億美元，有效稅率為37.8%。整體而言，淨利為5.29億美元，每股盈餘（EPS）為0.53美元，較前期的5.21億美元與0.51美元分別小幅上升。

With that, let's turn to the next slide and briefly discuss how fuel lag impacted the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the effect of the lag in our fuel surcharge program was unfavorable by $9 million. This reflects $4 million of positive in-quarter lag during the second quarter of this year, versus $13 million of positive in-quarter lag for the same period in the prior year. Based on the current forward curve, we expect the year-over-year fuel lag impact to be slightly favorable in the third quarter.

接著看下一張投影片，簡要說明燃油滯後（fuel lag）對本季的影響。以年對年來看，我們燃油附加費機制的滯後效應帶來900萬美元的不利影響。這反映今年第二季當季滯後帶來400萬美元的正面影響，相較去年同期當季滯後帶來1,300萬美元的正面影響。依目前的遠期曲線（forward curve）判斷，我們預期第三季燃油滯後的年對年影響將略為有利。

Turning to the next slide, let's review our expenses. Overall expenses increased 7% in the quarter. I'll talk about the top three expense items in more detail on the next slide. But let me first briefly speak to the bottom two on this chart. Depreciation was up 4% to $287 million due to a higher net asset base. Going forward, we continue to expect depreciation to increase sequentially a few million dollars per quarter, reflecting the ongoing investment in our business. Equipment rent was up 19% to $114 million, driven by higher freight car rates, incremental volume and longer car cycles.

接著看下一張投影片，檢視我們的費用。本季整體費用增加7%。我會在下一張投影片更詳細說明前三大費用項目。但我先簡要談談此圖表中最下方兩項。折舊費用因淨資產基礎提高而增加4%，至2.87億美元。展望未來，我們仍預期折舊將每季逐步增加數百萬美元，反映對業務的持續投資。設備租金增加19%，至1.14億美元，主要受貨車租金費率上升、增量運量以及更長的車輛週轉週期所帶動。

Turning to the next slide, let's discuss our other expenses. Overall, labor and fringe, MS&O and fuel expense each increased versus the prior year, driven primarily by 8% higher volume in the second quarter. As Oscar mentioned earlier, we incurred $32 million of additional expense in the quarter related to network performance. Of that amount, $14 million is attributable to labor and fringe, $9 million is in MS&O, and, finally, there was $9 million of impact in equipment rent expense.

接著看下一張投影片，討論其他費用。整體而言，人工與附加福利（labor and fringe）、MS&O以及燃油費用均較去年增加，主要由第二季運量年增8%所驅動。如Oscar先前提到，我們本季因網路績效而產生3,200萬美元的額外費用。其中，1,400萬美元歸因於人工與附加福利，900萬美元屬於MS&O，最後設備租金費用也受到900萬美元的影響。

This cost of network performance represents a significant improvement from the $90 million impact we experienced in the first quarter. Looking forward to the second half, we expect these costs to remain relatively consistent with the second-quarter levels until we see meaningful improvement in network fluidity and service levels.

這項網路績效成本相較第一季我們所承受的9,000萬美元影響，已有顯著改善。展望下半年，在我們看到網路流動性與服務水準出現實質改善之前，我們預期這些成本將大致維持在第二季水準。

Now, let me discuss the other drivers for each of the expense categories, beginning on the left with labor and fringe. Total labor and fringe increased 4%, or $32 million, versus last year. $25 million of this increase was related to incremental volume and $14 million related to inflation. For the second half of 2014, we expect labor inflation to continue to be around $15 million on a year-over-year basis each quarter. The $21 million improvement in other labor and fringe is driven by lower incentive compensation and pension expense versus the prior year, and is split about 50-50 between those two items.

接下來我將說明各費用類別的其他驅動因素，先從左側的人工與附加福利開始。人工與附加福利總額較去年增加4%，或3,200萬美元。其中2,500萬美元的增加與增量運量相關，1,400萬美元與通膨相關。對於2014年下半年，我們預期人工通膨在年對年基礎下，每季仍約為1,500萬美元。其他人工與附加福利改善2,100萬美元，主要來自相較去年較低的獎酬性薪酬與退休金費用，兩者約各占一半。

Headcount was up about 1% versus our first quarter level, as T&E employees increased to accommodate higher volume. Looking ahead, we expect overall headcount to gradually increase during the second half, such that by year-end our headcount will be up 1% to 2% versus the end of 2013.

人力編制較第一季水準約增加1%，因T&E員工增加以因應更高運量。展望未來，我們預期整體人力在下半年將逐步增加，使得至年底人力編制將較2013年底增加1%至2%。

Moving to the right on the slide, MS&O expense increased 11% or $61 million versus last year. This included the cycling of $36 million of real estate gains, $19 million of expenses related to incremental volume, and $10 million of inflation. In addition, there was $13 million of decrease in other MS&O spanning multiple items, none of which was individually significant.

投影片右側方面，MS&O費用較去年增加11%，或6,100萬美元。其中包含3,600萬美元的不動產收益基期因素（cycling of real estate gains）、1,900萬美元與增量運量相關的費用，以及1,000萬美元的通膨。此外，其他MS&O合計減少1,300萬美元，涵蓋多個項目，且沒有任何單一項目具個別重大性。

Looking at the remaining quarters of 2014, we continue to expect higher year-over-year MS&O expense related to inflation and volume growth. And there are no further real estate gains to be cycled in the second half. Finally, fuel expense increased 5%, or $19 million, versus last year, as the impact of higher volume was partially offset by favorable price and efficiency. That concludes the expense review.

就2014年剩餘季度而言，我們仍預期MS&O費用在年對年基礎下，將因通膨與運量成長而較高。而下半年不會再有需要納入基期比較的不動產收益。最後，燃油費用較去年增加5%，或1,900萬美元，因較高運量的影響部分被有利的價格與效率所抵銷。以上為費用回顧。

Turning to the next slide, I'd like to highlight our core earnings growth and operating margin in the second quarter. Looking at the second quarter financial results, and excluding the $36 million of real estate gains from last year, the Company generated $198 million of revenue growth that was partially offset by $105 million of incremental expense. This netted to an increase in core operating income of $93 million versus the prior year, or an incremental operating margin of 47%. As a reminder, these results included the $32 million of network performance costs that I discussed earlier.

接著看下一張投影片，我想強調我們第二季的核心盈餘成長與營業利益率。檢視第二季財務結果，並排除去年3,600萬美元的不動產處分利益後，公司帶來1.98億美元的營收成長，但部分被1.05億美元的新增費用所抵銷。淨結果為核心營業利益較去年增加9,300萬美元，亦即增量營業利益率為47%。提醒一下，這些結果包含我先前提到的3,200萬美元網路績效成本。

With a positive outlook across most of the markets in our portfolio, the core earnings strength of CSX's business is now becoming more evident. We expect the core momentum experienced in this quarter to carry over in the second half and produce modest earnings growth for the full year and double-digit growth starting next year. This expectation is the foundation for the increase in capital that we are now planning for 2014, which I'll discuss on the next slide.

由於我們投資組合中多數市場展望正向，CSX業務的核心盈餘實力如今正變得更加明顯。我們預期本季所展現的核心動能將延續至下半年，帶動全年溫和的盈餘成長，並自明年起達到兩位數成長。這項預期是我們目前規劃於2014年提高資本投入的基礎，我將在下一張投影片說明。

Total investment is now expected to be $2.4 billion, up from $2.3 billion we initially budgeted for the year. About $100 million of additional capital will be deployed for infrastructure and freight cars, both of which will support long-term growth. As a result, our revised core capital budget is now $2.1 billion, which is consistent with our guidance of 16% to 17% of revenue. In addition, we still expect to invest $300 million in Positive Train Control this year.

目前預期總投資為24億美元，高於我們年初編列的23億美元預算。約1億美元的額外資本將投入於基礎設施與貨車，兩者皆將支持長期成長。因此，我們修訂後的核心資本預算為21億美元，與我們指引的營收16%至17%一致。此外，我們今年仍預期在正向列車控制（Positive Train Control）上投資3億美元。

Now, let me wrap up on the next slide. First, the core earnings improvement of CSX's business is becoming more apparent in our financial results, and we see broad-based strength across our diverse business portfolio, which will be key to drive sustainable, long-term earnings growth. As a result, we are investing in infrastructure, crews and locomotives to effectively serve demand and gradually return service to the superior levels that our customers expect.

現在，讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。首先，CSX業務的核心盈餘改善在我們的財務結果中愈發明顯，我們也看到多元業務投資組合呈現廣泛的強勁表現，這將是推動可持續、長期盈餘成長的關鍵。因此，我們正投資於基礎設施、人員編制與機車，以有效滿足需求，並逐步將服務恢復到客戶所期待的卓越水準。

Looking forward, we expect third-quarter earnings to be roughly flat versus the prior year, as we cycle $51 million in liquidated damages and tax favorability of $0.01 in EPS, while continuing to incur network performance costs. We expect more meaningful earnings growth in the fourth quarter. As I mentioned earlier, we still expect modest earnings growth for the full year 2014. And we remain confident in CSX's ability to sustain double-digit EPS growth starting in 2015 and operating ratio in the mid-60s longer term.

展望未來，我們預期第三季盈餘與去年大致持平，因為我們將比較基期中包含的5,100萬美元違約金收入（liquidated damages）以及每股盈餘0.01美元的稅務有利因素，同時仍將持續承擔網路績效成本。我們預期第四季將出現更有意義的盈餘成長。如我先前提到的，我們仍預期2014年全年為溫和的盈餘成長。而我們仍對CSX自2015年起維持每股盈餘兩位數成長、以及長期營運比率維持在60%中段充滿信心。

With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把簡報交回給Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Fredrik. As we discussed this morning, CSX experienced substantial demand across nearly our entire portfolio, and delivered record financial results for the quarter. Going forward, we see a strong economic environment that is expected to continue, and operations that are stable and expected to gradually improve with the actions we are taking.

謝謝你，Fredrik。如同我們今天早上討論的，CSX在幾乎整個投資組合中都經歷了強勁需求，並在本季交出創紀錄的財務表現。展望未來，我們看到強勁的經濟環境預期將持續，而營運也已趨於穩定，並可望隨著我們採取的行動逐步改善。

What's even more exciting is that in a reshaped energy environment, and with intermodal and merchandise an ever-growing part of our portfolio, the core earnings strength of this Company is apparent and attractive. For those reasons, we continue to expect double-digit earnings growth and margin expansion beginning in 2015.

更令人振奮的是，在能源環境重塑之下，加上聯運（intermodal）與一般貨運（merchandise）在我們投資組合中占比持續提升，公司的核心盈餘實力清晰可見且具吸引力。基於這些原因，我們仍預期自2015年起實現兩位數盈餘成長與利潤率擴張。

Now, we'd be glad to take your questions.

現在，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Rob Salmon from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的Rob Salmon。

To follow-up with regard to the service discussion, could you give us a little bit of a sense in terms of the time line of how the network fluidity should be improving with regard to some of the capital investments that you are making, particularly on the intermodal side where we basically have been seeing the velocity come down since basically the May timeframe? I'm assuming this is related to the headwinds that you guys called out in the northern region. Any sort of incremental color and how we should be thinking about those costs coming out? It sounds like it's more of probably a 2015 story in terms of getting the velocity and the dwell down to levels that you guys like.

針對服務的討論再追問一下：就你們正在進行的一些資本投資而言，能否讓我們大致了解一下網路流動性（network fluidity）改善的時間表，特別是在聯運端，因為自大約5月以來我們基本上看到運行速度（velocity）下滑？我猜這與你們提到北部地區的不利因素有關。能否再補充一些細節，以及我們應該如何看待這些成本的消退？聽起來在把速度與停留時間（dwell）降到你們理想水準方面，可能更像是2015年的故事。

Yes, Rob, this is Oscar. I think all you say is generally correct. I just would re-highlight what we talked about before, is we do have a lot of plans to add the resources, and are in constant communication with our customers across all areas.

是的，Rob，我是Oscar。我認為你所說的大致都正確。我只想再次強調我們先前談到的：我們確實有許多計畫要增加資源，並且在各個領域都與客戶保持持續溝通。

Now, assuming that demand remains as strong as we expect, which we do, the recovery will be gradual as we work through the challenges, especially across the North. I can't provide a specific timeframe at this point for a lot of different reasons. But the recovery will not be necessarily linear. That said, as you've seen in this quarter, even with these additional operating costs that we are seeing, our incremental margins are improving, so there is a lot of value and good things to look forward to.

現在，假設需求如我們預期般維持強勁——我們確實如此預期——當我們逐步克服挑戰時，復原將是漸進式的，尤其是在北部地區。基於多種原因，我目前無法提供明確的時間表。但復原不一定會是線性的。話雖如此，如你在本季所見，即使我們承擔了這些額外的營運成本，我們的增量利潤率仍在改善，因此未來仍有許多價值與正面發展值得期待。

Okay. And then, Fredrik, with regard to a follow-up on the guidance for the third quarter, what sort of volume growth are you assuming in that guidance?

了解。另外，Fredrik，關於第三季指引的追問：在該指引中，你們假設的運量成長大概是多少？

I think, overall, right now what we are seeing here over the last month or so is in the mid-single digit range that we are seeing volume growth. So, I think that's probably a good place to start.

我想整體而言，就我們最近一個月左右所看到的，運量成長大約在中段個位數百分比的區間。所以，我認為這大概是一個不錯的起點。

Okay, that's helpful. Appreciate the time, guys.

好的，這很有幫助。感謝各位撥冗。

Thomas Kim from Goldman Sachs.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）的Thomas Kim。

Could you provide a little bit more color on the incremental CapEx and where you plan to be allocating it, and the time horizon as to when you anticipate revenue generation from that? Thank you.

能否再多提供一些關於新增資本支出（CapEx）的細節：你們計畫如何配置，以及你們預期何時能從中帶來營收的時間範圍？謝謝。

Sure. About half of it is related to rolling stock that we think we'll be able to put in revenue generation next year. And about half of it is in infrastructure around the northern tier of our network. Obviously, as we put that into effect throughout the fall, that should generate incremental fluidity in that part of our network.

當然。其中約一半與車輛（rolling stock）相關，我們認為明年就能投入營收產生。另外約一半則投入於我們網路北部走廊（northern tier）周邊的基礎設施。顯然，當我們在秋季期間逐步落實後，應能提升該區段網路的額外流動性。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just with regard to intermodal and the capital reinvestment there, to what extent can you elaborate on how much spillover traffic you see? Given the strength of demand and your network, how much revenue do you anticipate, estimate actually being lost because you don't have the capacity? And if you could just try to give us a sense of the ramp on the utilization of the two new facilities by year end, that would be helpful, as well. Thank you.

好的。這非常有幫助。另外，關於聯運與相關資本再投資，你們能否說明溢出（spillover）運量大概有多少？考量需求強勁以及你們的網路，你們預期、估計實際上因為產能不足而流失了多少營收？另外，如果可以，也請提供一下到年底兩座新設施的利用率爬坡情況，這也會很有幫助。謝謝。

Thomas, this is Clarence Gooden. I think it's going to be very difficult for us to say how much business we lost or gained during that period of time that you are asking. On the facilities coming online, are you referring to Valleyfield and Winter Haven?

Thomas，我是Clarence Gooden。就你所問的那段期間，我們很難量化到底流失或增加了多少業務。至於即將上線的設施，你指的是Valleyfield和Winter Haven嗎？

Yes, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

Okay. Winter Haven is progressing along as we expected it to be. Most of the volume that's in Winter Haven now was moved out of our Orlando facility, which was part of the SunRail deal we had done earlier, several years ago with the state of Florida. So, it will be several years before we reach capacity, full capacity, in Winterhaven.

好的。Winter Haven的進度如我們預期。目前在Winter Haven的大部分運量，是從我們的Orlando設施移轉過來的；這是我們幾年前與佛羅里達州就SunRail交易所做安排的一部分。因此，Winter Haven要達到產能、滿載產能，還需要好幾年時間。

Valleyfield, which will open up in the early fourth quarter, late third quarter, we're in the process right now of seeing just how big that market total is going to be on day one when we open. We expect we'll be running initially a train in and a train out per day.

Valleyfield 將於第四季初、第三季末左右啟用；我們目前正在評估開業第一天該市場的總量會有多大。我們預期初期每天會有一班列車進、一班列車出。

Okay. That helps a lot. Thank you.

好的。這幫助很大。謝謝。

Bill Greene from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bill Greene。

Clarence, I wanted to take your pulse on something. We are starting to see throughout transportation a lot of tightness. And it's not just rails, but obviously you are seeing it in some of your markets, as well. When do we get to the point where capacity is tight enough that you've got to start looking at ways to meter out the scarce capacity of your network? -- in other words, using price as a way to encourage the customers to get in line for access to that network. How do you think about where we are in that tightness on capacity?

Clarence，我想了解你對一件事的看法。我們開始看到整個運輸業出現相當程度的吃緊。而且不只是鐵路，顯然你在部分市場也看到了。什麼時候會到達運能緊到你必須開始思考如何配給你們網路稀缺運能的程度？——換句話說，用價格作為一種方式，鼓勵客戶排隊取得該網路的使用權。你如何看待我們目前在運能吃緊程度所處的位置？

I think we're a long way from where we should be on the tightness on capacity from just a sheer standpoint of how much we can handle. Remember that today we are essentially at 2007 volume levels. The problem that we had was that the surge came fast and quick and furious on us. And that's what's tipped our hand here. So, we have plenty of capacity to meet the demand of our customers and our common carrier obligation now.

我認為，就我們純粹能處理多少量的角度來看，距離我們應該達到的運能吃緊程度還差很遠。記得目前我們基本上回到 2007 年的運量水準。我們遇到的問題是，需求激增來得又快又猛。這才讓我們在這裡露出破綻。因此，我們有足夠的運能來滿足客戶需求，以及我們目前作為普通承運人（common carrier）的義務。

So, when you look at your corporation that you just reported, all-in down a little bit, is service an impediment to changing that direction? Even without coal we've seen a deceleration. What changes the direction in pricing in your mind?

所以，當你看你們剛公布的營收（你們公司整體）小幅下滑時，服務是否成為扭轉方向的阻礙？即使不含煤炭，我們也看到增速放緩。在你看來，什麼會改變定價的方向？

I think the deceleration that you saw, particularly on the merchandise side, on a year-over-year basis was a result of a weakness in the economy that we had had in the previous years and some duration lingering effects of that in contracts that were in place. Going forward, I think all modes of transportation have an opportunity to price up -- price up significantly -- particularly in this type of economic environment.

我認為你看到的放緩，特別是在雜貨（merchandise）業務方面、以年對年來看，是因為前幾年經濟疲弱，以及當時已簽訂合約所帶來的一些延續性影響。展望未來，我認為在這種經濟環境下，所有運輸方式都有機會提高價格——而且是顯著提高。

When you couple that with what is happening in 2014, and you look at the projections for 2015, we are at a very robust pricing market in virtually all modes of transportation. So, up is the way the direction looks to me.

再把 2014 年正在發生的情況，以及對 2015 年的預測一起考量，我們在幾乎所有運輸方式上都處於非常強勁的定價市場。所以在我看來，方向就是往上。

Okay. Thanks for the time. Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

好的。謝謝你撥冗。美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Clarence, just jumping back onto, looking at the revenue outlook there a bit for the quarter, domestic coal, you mentioned double-digit growth for this upcoming quarter. But when you look at 2015, what are your thoughts in terms of volumes, knowing that you still have that 7 million tons that needs to be phased out or even moved to others? Is that why you are sourcing more to Illinois Basin? Does that make up for it? What are your thoughts as you're looking at 2015?

Clarence，回到本季營收展望的部分，談一下國內煤炭。你提到接下來這一季會有兩位數成長。但看 2015 年，在你仍有 700 萬噸需要逐步退出、或甚至轉移給其他人的情況下，你對運量的看法是什麼？這也是你們更多從伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin）採購的原因嗎？那能彌補缺口嗎？你在看 2015 年時的想法是什麼？

Ken, I think 2015 for domestic utility coal is still going to be a robust year for multiple reasons. One, the stockpiles now are way down. Two, as long as gas stays, particularly for Illinois Basin, above $3.50, for the Southeast it makes coal competitive in the mix. Three, is that we still don't know if we are going to have what will be the winter of 2014's effect that's going in. Four, I think the utilities are tending to lean more now to having sufficient stockpiles rather than having insufficient stockpiles to meet their customers' demand.

Ken，我認為 2015 年國內公用事業用煤仍會是強勁的一年，原因有好幾個。第一，目前庫存（stockpiles）已大幅下降。第二，只要天然氣價格維持在（特別是對伊利諾伊盆地而言）每百萬英熱單位 3.50 美元以上，對美國東南部來說，煤在能源組合中就具競爭力。第三，我們仍不確定 2014 年冬季的影響會如何延續。第四，我認為公用事業公司現在更傾向於維持充足庫存，而不是庫存不足以滿足其客戶需求。

That's great. So, you are still seeing the outlook for growth as you move forward, not falling back to the continued annual declines?

很好。所以你仍然看到未來有成長展望，而不是回到每年持續下滑？

Absolutely. Growth for coal in 2015.

完全是。2015 年煤炭會成長。

Wonderful. And, Oscar, just a follow-up with you on the service side. You mentioned the $32 million of internal cost. And I know you were talking about velocity before, but with on-time originations down at 56%, what can you do to get back on track on those metrics? Is there anything you need to do differently or reset operations to get back to running fluidly?

太好了。另外，Oscar，我想就服務面再追問一下。你提到 3,200 萬美元的內部成本。我知道你之前談到速度（velocity），但在準時始發（on-time originations）降到 56% 的情況下，你們能做什麼把這些指標拉回正軌？是否需要做任何不同的事，或重整營運，才能恢復順暢運行？

Yes, Ken, as you might expect, we have pretty much pulled out every playbook and every play in the playbook over the course of time. Service performance has such large interrelated issues. We talk a lot about power and talk a lot about crews, but infrastructure is important to some of this growth in the northern tier, has caused a little bit of congestion. What we feel very confident is our process. And we do have a really good playbook.

是的，Ken，如你所料，我們基本上已經把所有作戰手冊拿出來、手冊裡的每一招也都用過了。服務表現牽涉到很多彼此關聯的問題。我們常談機車動力（power）也常談人員（crews），但基礎設施也很重要；北部走廊（northern tier）的部分成長造成了一些壅塞。我們非常有信心的是我們的流程。而且我們確實有一本很好的作戰手冊。

So, really, we are focusing on service and safety, keeping in constant contact with our customers, and getting this business moved. It's costing us a little bit, and that cost will decline, but there really isn't a whole lot else to be done than what we're already outlined as doing.

所以，實際上我們正聚焦在服務與安全，與客戶保持持續聯繫，並把這些貨運移動出去。這讓我們付出了一些成本，而該成本會下降，但除了我們已經說明正在做的事情之外，真的沒有太多其他可做的。

Appreciate the time. Thanks.

感謝你撥冗。謝謝。

Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

巴克萊的 Brandon Oglenski。

This is Keith Mori on for Brandon. Congratulations on the strong quarter. Just one question here on service, Oscar. We saw $32 million in the quarter. Can you maybe help us split out what was needed for just returning metrics to after winter, and how much of the costs were actually geared towards an increase in volume that we could think about going forward? How should we think about those costs going forward to meet that rise in volume Clarence was speaking to?

我是代替 Brandon 的 Keith Mori。恭喜本季表現強勁。Oscar，我這裡只有一個關於服務的問題。我們看到本季有 3,200 萬美元。你能否協助我們拆分一下：其中多少是為了冬季過後把指標拉回來所需，多少成本其實是為了因應運量增加、可供我們往後思考的？對於未來為了滿足 Clarence 所提到的運量上升，這些成本我們應該如何看待？

Yes, I think we've already bifurcated the volume-oriented cost in that $30 million unfortunately is all related to service impacts. I'd break that out between crew cost, leased horsepower hours, and the car hire that we're having to work through in those categories. It's roughly about $10 million a month, split between the three components.

是的，我認為我們已經把與運量相關的成本做了拆分；不幸的是，那 3,000 萬美元全部都與服務衝擊有關。我會把它分成人員成本、租賃機車馬力小時（leased horsepower hours），以及我們必須消化的車輛租用費（car hire）這幾類。大約每月 1,000 萬美元，由三個組成項目分攤。

Should we think that could accelerate into the third quarter given that we are going to pick up a little bit here on labor and some other items that we didn't speak to?

我們是否應該認為，鑑於第三季我們會在勞動力以及一些其他未提到的項目上略有增加，這個數字可能會加速上升？

Our plan is to decelerate. I'm not sure how you are using that term. Our hope would be to reduce that cost as the additional crews and power come on.

我們的計畫是讓它減速。我不確定你怎麼使用「加速」這個詞。我們希望隨著額外的車組人員與機車動力到位，能降低那項成本。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Chris Wetherbee from Citi.

花旗的 Chris Wetherbee。

Just touching on the volume outlook for the second quarter, just want to get a rough sense. It looks like the last three weeks or so we've seen some pretty elevated numbers. Is this just a blip that we are working through when we think about the full quarter? Is mid single digits, Fredrik, to your point, the right number to use? Just want to roughly understand what's going on now and maybe how we see the next month or so playing out.

談一下第二季的運量展望，我想大致了解一下。看起來過去三週左右我們看到一些相當高的數字。當我們看整季時，這只是我們正在消化的一個短期波動嗎？如 Fredrik 你所說的，中個位數（mid single digits）是合適的數字嗎？我只是想大致了解目前發生了什麼，以及接下來一個月左右可能會如何發展。

The numbers you've been seeing the last couple of weeks represent year-over-year comparison in July, which is normally a very down time of the year for us. Fortunately, it's been a very positive time of the year for us. So, that's a reason that you are seeing the numbers that you've seen in the last two weeks. But I think Fredrik's number of 6% to 7% going forward for the back half of the year is pretty strong.

你過去幾週看到的數字，反映的是7月的年對年比較；而7月通常是我們一年當中相當淡的時段。所幸，對我們而言，今年這段時間表現非常正面。因此，這也是你在過去兩週看到那些數字的原因。不過我認為，Fredrik 對今年下半年往後 6% 到 7% 的數字預期相當強勁。

Okay. That's helpful. And, then, when you think about the pricing outlook as we roll into 2015, you have a good domestic coal environment, you have a couple of other things working in your favor. If you have these trends continue, can you grow earnings double digit if core pricing is flattish? Or, do you need it to pick up? And is that inherent in your thoughts about growing double digits? Just want to get a rough sense of how we think pricing might translate into 2015 with a still good volume environment.

好的。這很有幫助。那麼，當你們思考進入 2015 年的定價展望時，國內煤炭環境不錯，還有幾項因素也對你們有利。如果這些趨勢延續，在核心定價持平的情況下，你們能否讓獲利達到兩位數成長？還是需要定價回升？而這是否也內含在你們對兩位數成長的想法之中？我只是想大致了解，在量能環境仍然良好的情況下，我們如何看待定價可能在 2015 年的傳導。

This is Fredrik. I think the key thing for us that we follow is the spread between RCAF and our pricing. So, as Clarence indicated, we think the pricing environment is favorable, it's getting more favorable. We are going to continue to push price. But it's the spread that is the most important part of this thing. And it is assumed that we will get inflation plus pricing as we think about next year and double-digit earnings growth.

我是 Fredrik。我認為我們追蹤的關鍵，是 RCAF 與我們定價之間的價差。因此，如 Clarence 所指出，我們認為定價環境有利，而且正變得更有利。我們會持續推動漲價。但在這整件事中，最重要的部分是價差。而在我們思考明年以及獲利兩位數成長時，我們的假設是能取得「通膨加成的定價」。

Okay, that's helpful. Thanks for the time. I appreciate it.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝你撥冗。我很感激。

Allison Landry from Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse 的 Allison Landry。

In terms of the resource additions, how do we think about the incremental margins in the back half of the year? And, particularly curious to see if there's any parallels that we could draw thinking back to the second half of 2011, when you guys also had to add some additional resources to meet demand. Obviously, we are in a much different volume environment. But I wanted to see if there was any consistent way to think about that, relative to a couple of years ago.

就資源增補而言，我們該如何看待今年下半年的增量利潤率？我也特別想了解，是否能回頭對照 2011 年下半年，當時你們也必須增添一些額外資源以滿足需求，看看是否有可類比之處。顯然，我們現在所處的量能環境大不相同。但我想知道，是否有一種一致的方式可以用來思考這件事，並與幾年前作比較。

Obviously -- you're right -- volume environments look different and the mix of business is different, but the outcome in 2011 was positive. As we added the resources we got the fluidity back in the network and we got to a better place. And that's essentially what we are trying to do here, as well.

很明顯——你說得對——量能環境看起來不同，業務組合也不同，但 2011 年的結果是正面的。當我們增添資源後，網路的流動性恢復了，我們也回到更好的狀態。而這基本上也是我們現在想要達成的目標。

In terms of the incremental margins, we've said longer term we need to be in that 50% and above range, and we expect that that will continue. We will see here in second half, especially in third quarter, as we're cycling the liquidated damages and continue to have network performance-related costs. It might not get all the way there, but longer term our view is we should clearly, especially in this robust environment, be over 50% in terms of incremental margins.

就增量利潤率而言，我們先前說過，長期來看我們需要在 50% 以上的區間，而我們預期這會持續。今年下半年，特別是第三季，因為我們在比較基期上會反映先前的違約金（liquidated damages）因素，且仍有與網路績效相關的成本，我們會看到一些影響。可能不會完全達到那個水準，但長期來看，我們的看法是應該很明確地——尤其在這樣強勁的環境下——增量利潤率要超過 50%。

Okay. That actually was very helpful. And just a housekeeping question -- just given you've made some restatements to the prior-year numbers, could you confirm what the 3Q 2013 EPS number was? Was it $0.43?

好的。這其實非常有幫助。另外一個例行問題——鑑於你們對前一年的數字做了一些重編，能否確認 2013 年第三季的 EPS 是多少？是 0.43 美元嗎？

The 3Q 2013 number was -- let me make sure I have it -- $0.45 last year.

2013 年第三季的數字是——我確認一下——去年是 0.45 美元。

Okay. $0.45. So, the guidance for flat is relative to that. Okay. Thank you so much.

好的。0.45 美元。所以「持平」的指引是相對於那個數字。好的。非常感謝。

David Vernon from Bernstein.

Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Just a question for you on the intermodal yields and the RPU developing there. The door-to-door intermodal product, is that a conscious choice you guys are making to demarket that door-to-door service? Or is that just what's shaking out given the difficulty finding drayage and the market conditions?

想請教一下聯運（intermodal）收益率以及每單位收入（RPU）的走勢。門到門的聯運產品，是你們有意識地選擇要淡化（demarket）這項門到門服務嗎？還是說，這只是因為難以找到短途拖運（drayage）以及市場狀況所導致的自然結果？

The main factor was that the transcon part of that door-to-door business is what declined, and that carries a very high RPU. The Eastern core part of that business remained reasonably robust. It just doesn't carry quite as high RPU as does the transcon.

主要因素是，那項門到門業務中的跨大陸（transcon）部分下滑了，而那部分的 RPU 非常高。該業務的東部核心部分仍然相當穩健。只是它的 RPU 不像跨大陸那部分那麼高。

And would you expect that to continue the rest of the year? Or was it a temporary thing associated with maybe some of the service issues coming east-west?

那你預期這種情況會在今年剩餘時間持續嗎？還是說，這只是暫時性的，可能與東西向的一些服務問題有關？

I would expect right now, for the third quarter at least, for it to continue.

以目前來看，我預期至少在第三季會持續。

Okay. And then, Fredrik, maybe just a longer-term question. As you think about the model you need to get to that mid 60%s OR, the high 50%s incremental margin, what kind of top-line growth assumption do you think about as a longer-term sustainable level of growth for you guys?

好的。接著，Fredrik，可能是一個較長期的問題。當你思考要達到營業比率（OR）中段 60% 或者增量利潤率高 50% 的模型時，長期而言，你會假設你們可持續的營收成長（top-line growth）大概是多少？

The guidance we've given is that going forward we think it's going to be a little bit more balanced between volume, inflation plus pricing, and productivity than perhaps it's been in the last decade. We like to think that a large part of our business can grow faster than the economy as a whole because of opportunities and the secular trends that we're seeing. But more specific than that, I think it's really hard to beat because it really depends on individual years and what sectors are doing well.

我們給出的指引是，往後我們認為，成長來源會比過去十年更均衡地分布在量、通膨加成的定價，以及生產力提升之間。我們傾向認為，因為我們看到的機會與結構性趨勢（secular trends），我們相當大一部分業務可以比整體經濟成長更快。但要比這更具體，我覺得很難，因為這真的取決於各個年度以及哪些產業表現較好。

But clearly we feel that the volume environment is much more robust going forward than it's been in the last decade after having gone through, obviously, the housing collapse, the recession that we saw, and now this energy transition that we've seen over the last few years. We think the volume environment is going to be much more constructive going forward than it's been in the past.

但很明顯，我們認為往後的量能環境會比過去十年更強勁；畢竟我們經歷了房市崩盤、我們看到的衰退，以及過去幾年所見的能源轉型。我們認為，未來的量能環境會比過去更具建設性。

And then the pricing stuff will obviously be suffering a little bit on some of the fixed variable stuff with coal, though? Would that also go forward in terms of yield pressure for next year? I'm just trying to get a sense for the top-line growth rate that's reasonable.

那麼，定價方面顯然會在煤炭的一些固定變動（fixed variable）項目上承受一些影響，對吧？這也會延續到明年，形成收益率壓力嗎？我只是想掌握一個合理的營收成長率大概會是多少。

I think that the fixed variable, we have to see. We obviously have cash in terms of how much the utilities can grow within this current rate structure. So, as we go through this year, we'll see what the impact is next year. But clearly right now it's a big negative.

我認為固定變動的部分，我們還得再觀察。就目前的費率結構而言，公用事業在能成長多少方面，顯然受到現金面的限制。因此，隨著我們走過今年，我們會看到對明年的影響會是什麼。但很明確的是，就目前而言這是一個很大的負面因素。

But as part of the way that we look at this, we think that's the right strategic move on our part to make sure that we incentivize additional volumes. And as we go through next year it might be a little bit different, as we cycle some of these large gains. I don't think that's going to be as big of a drag next year as it was this year, at least.

但從我們看待這件事的方式來說，我們認為這是正確的策略性作法，以確保我們能激勵更多的運量。而進入明年後，當我們在比較基期上消化掉其中一些大幅增益時，情況可能會有些不同。我認為至少明年它不會像今年一樣造成那麼大的拖累。

Great. Thanks very much for the time.

很好。非常感謝你撥冗。

John Larkin from Stifel.

Stifel 的 John Larkin。

I had a question related to the surge in volume on the northern part of the network, and how much of that was originating and terminating on CSX, and how much of that is being delivered to you, or you are delivering to the Western railroads, which have had perhaps even more congestion problems, particularly the BNSF.

我有一個問題，與網路北段運量激增有關：其中有多少是由 CSX 起運並在 CSX 終到的？又有多少是交付給你們，或是你們交付給西部鐵路公司？那些西部鐵路可能有更嚴重的壅塞問題，尤其是 BNSF。

John, this is Clarence. I would say that most of the surge that we had on the northern part of the railroad was interline business that came. The biggest part of our surge in the North was driven by crude-by-rail and by our coal business. Our coal business, particularly, was much higher than what we had expected it to be, primarily as a result of the gas prices, as a result of the colder winter, and as a result of the Great Lakes themselves, the utility Lake coal, closing much earlier due to the weather, and opening much later due to the weather.

John，我是Clarence。我會說，我們在鐵路北段出現的大部分激增，都是轉線（interline）業務帶來的。我們北方激增的最大部分，是由鐵路運輸原油（crude-by-rail）以及我們的煤炭業務所帶動。尤其是我們的煤炭業務，遠高於我們原先的預期，主要是因為天然氣價格、較寒冷的冬季，以及五大湖本身的因素——公用事業用的湖運煤（Lake coal）因天候而更早封航、也因天候而更晚開航。

So, is it safe to say that the recovery on service is at least partly a function of how soon Chicago cleans up its service act, and how quickly some of the Western carriers return to normal service levels?

所以，可以說服務的復原至少部分取決於芝加哥多快把它的服務狀況整理好，以及一些西部承運商多快回到正常的服務水準嗎？

John, it's Oscar. No, I wouldn't ascribe it to anything. Remember, there's a lot of component pieces and all of us are having difficulty across that interchange. I think the heavy degree of volume concentrated in one area is a problem for all of us. So, I think as we all collectively get our stuff together, I think that will all improve.

John，我是Oscar。不，我不會把它歸因於任何單一因素。記住，這裡面有很多組成環節，而我們所有人在那個交接點（interchange）都遇到困難。我認為大量運量集中在同一個區域，對我們所有人都是問題。所以，我想當我們大家一起把事情理順之後，整體情況都會改善。

Is there any possibility of a change in routing protocol to use, perhaps, other less congested hubs that could help solve the problem?

是否有可能改變路由協議，改用其他較不壅塞的樞紐，來幫助解決這個問題？

Absolutely. And we are in active communication and conversations with almost every other carrier to do exactly that. And we have some great options around that, that I think make sense, both from a service perspective and also, frankly, economically, as we see longer-term growth coming through that same corridor.

絕對有。而且我們正與幾乎所有其他承運商保持積極溝通與討論，目的就是要做到這一點。我們在這方面有一些很好的選項，我認為從服務角度以及坦白說從經濟性角度都合理，尤其是我們看到同一條走廊的長期成長正在到來。

Got it. Thanks very much.

了解。非常感謝。

Bascome Majors from Susquehanna.

Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

We should see new draft safety regulations from PHMSA moving flammable liquids by rail in a few weeks here. And they're talking about an operational restriction taking crude trains down to 30 miles per hour. Can you talk a little bit about how that could impact your business versus how you're moving that commodity today? And whether and how that could spill beyond crude oil if they do decide to go in that direction?

我們應該會在接下來幾週看到 PHMSA 針對鐵路運輸易燃液體的新安全法規草案。他們在談一項營運限制，把原油列車的速度降到每小時 30 英里。你能談談這可能如何影響你們的業務，相較於你們目前運送該商品的方式？以及如果他們真的朝那個方向走，是否以及如何可能外溢到原油以外的品項？

This is Michael. I think you are quite right. We have heard, as well. We've not seen the proposals. Nobody really has, yet. But, we have heard, as you have, that 30 miles an hour is one of the options they're considering.

我是Michael。我想你說得很對。我們也有聽說。我們還沒看到提案內容。其實目前也沒有人真正看過。但是，我們跟你一樣聽說，每小時 30 英里是他們正在考慮的選項之一。

We think that would severely limit our ability to provide reliable freight service to our customers and to support timely, efficient passenger and commuter service. So, there's all kinds of corollary impacts of this. And I would hope, as we look at this with the federal government, we could show them the modeling of how disastrous that could be to the entire fluidity of the US rail system, as well as the adverse impact that will have as trucks spill over onto the highway system. So, our view is it would be very bad. But our view is also that cooler heads will prevail when they see the facts behind it.

我們認為那將嚴重限制我們為客戶提供可靠貨運服務的能力，也會影響我們支援準時、有效率的客運與通勤服務。因此這會帶來各種連帶影響。我希望在我們與聯邦政府一起檢視此事時，能向他們展示模型，說明這對美國鐵路系統整體流動性（fluidity）可能有多麼災難性的影響，以及卡車運量外溢到公路系統所造成的不利影響。所以，我們的看法是這會非常糟。但我們也認為，當他們看到背後的事實時，理性終將占上風。

All right. Thanks for that. Are there any other parts of this rulemaking that you are watching very closely that could potentially impact your business, whether operationally or from a risk management standpoint?

好的。謝謝你的說明。在這次規則制定中，還有哪些部分是你們非常密切關注、可能影響你們業務的——不論是營運面或風險管理面？

Actually, we are quite excited about the potential for the new car design, as well as the retrofits to the existing cars. And I know that is part of the proposed rulemaking. As you know, as a railroad, we've done a number of things to improve our already very good safety record to make it even more safe. And we think the next big movement to make it even better is for a stronger car on new builds as well as retrofit to existing cars.

其實，我們對新車型設計的潛力，以及對既有車輛進行改裝（retrofit）的潛力感到相當振奮。我知道這也是擬議規則制定的一部分。如你所知，作為一家鐵路公司，我們已經做了許多事情，在我們本來就很好的安全紀錄上再進一步提升安全性。而我們認為下一個讓它更上一層樓的重大推動，就是新造車輛採用更堅固的車體，同時也對既有車輛進行改裝。

All right. Thanks for the time this morning.

好的。謝謝你今天早上的時間。

Jeff Kauffman from Buckingham Research.

Buckingham Research 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Mike, it's really great to hear you talking about coal being up double digits and it may continue for a while. I'm just curious -- if export coal didn't exist, give us a sense for what's going on with the yield on the domestic product.

Mike，很高興聽到你談到煤炭成長達到兩位數，而且可能還會持續一段時間。我只是好奇——如果不存在出口煤，請讓我們了解一下國內產品的收益率（yield）目前是什麼狀況。

Jeff, this is Clarence. If export coal didn't exist, what is going on with the yield on the domestic coal?

Jeff，我是Clarence。如果不存在出口煤，國內煤炭的收益率狀況如何？

Yes.

是的。

I don't think export coal has any direct impact at all on what the yield is on our domestic coal as it currently exists. Our yield is very positive on our domestic coal. Actually, it's improving in our domestic coal business, as it's coming along.

我不認為出口煤對我們目前國內煤炭的收益率有任何直接影響。我們國內煤炭的收益率非常正面。事實上，隨著業務推進，我們國內煤炭業務的收益率正在改善。

The fixed variable contracts and the nature of them have proved very positive to us. They cover a good percentage of our contracts now, especially in our southern utility markets. There is coal that we are now moving and hauling that we would not have moved and hauled had we not had the fixed variable contracts, with the caps in it obviously to help control how much of that moves at those rates, that we are handling now that we would not have handled. I don't know if that helps or not.

固定變動（fixed variable）合約以及其性質，對我們證明是非常正面的。它們現在涵蓋了我們相當比例的合約，尤其是在我們南部的公用事業市場。目前有一些煤炭是我們正在運送與承運的，如果沒有固定變動合約——當然其中有上限（caps）來協助控制在那些費率下的運量——我們原本是不會去運送與承運的；但現在我們正在處理這些原本不會處理的量。我不知道這樣是否有幫助。

Let me try little bit. So, if we just look at our domestic portfolio, Jeff, if I had to say, in general, are those rates heading upward, the answer is yes. On the two-thirds it's not on fixed variable, those rates are moving up. On the one-third that is fixed variable, the base -- there's a minimum and a maximum -- that base is moving up. But where they are in that range can have a fairly significant impact on overall RPU in coal. So, all of it has an upward bias, but the fixed variable make it confusing where they are in that scale that's allowed within the contract.

我再補充一下。Jeff，如果只看我們的國內組合（portfolio），若要我概括地說這些費率是否在往上走，答案是肯定的。在其中三分之二不是固定變動的部分，費率正在上升。在三分之一屬於固定變動的部分，基準——有最低與最高——那個基準也在上升。但它們落在該區間的哪個位置，會對煤炭整體每單位收入（RPU）造成相當顯著的影響。所以整體都有上行偏向，但固定變動合約會讓人困惑，因為要看它們在合約允許的那個刻度區間裡處於哪個位置。

That's exactly what I was looking for. Thank you.

這正是我想了解的。謝謝。

Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

I had a few things on coal. One, Clarence, do you have a view on coal yields sequentially, from 2Q to 3Q? They were pretty flat this quarter. A view there. That's one.

我有幾個關於煤炭的問題。第一，Clarence，你對煤炭收益率（yield）在季度間的走勢有看法嗎，從第二季到第三季？這一季看起來相當持平。想聽聽你的看法。這是第一個。

Next, do you think that that mid 30s export number for this year -- do you think that's a good bottom, or do you think that can grow next year, or do you see more risk to that? And then, just lastly, the 7 million tons of coal that you guys have talked about that's shutting next year, is that number changing much this year? Meaning, is that growing a lot with coal this year or that not really seeing that much movement?

接著，你認為今年出口量在 3,000 多萬噸（mid 30s）的那個數字——你覺得那是一個不錯的底部，還是你認為明年可以成長，或你看到那個數字有更多下行風險？最後，你們談到明年將關閉的 700 萬噸煤炭（需求/產能）——這個數字今年有沒有太大變化？也就是說，今年煤炭狀況下那個數字是否大幅增加，還是其實沒有太多變動？

Let's go in reverse. It's 4 million tons, not 7 million. And we don't see that number changing. It appears to be what it is. We think the other plants that remain open will burn at higher burn rates and it will be a non-event number, essentially, for us.

我們倒著回答。是 400 萬噸，不是 700 萬噸。而我們看不到那個數字會改變。看起來就是那樣。我們認為其餘仍在運轉的電廠會以更高的燃燒率（burn rates）消耗煤炭，對我們而言基本上會是一個不會造成影響的數字。

Number two was export rates for next year. Too early to tell. We will revisit that in the fourth quarter.

第二點是明年出口費率。現在還太早下定論。我們會在第四季再回頭檢視。

He was asking about volumes.

他是在問運量。

Volumes -- still too early to tell. We'll know more about that in the fourth quarter. And your first question was what?

運量——現在也還太早判斷。我們在第四季會更清楚。那你的第一個問題是什麼？

Just coal yields sequentially from second quarter to third quarter, should we think that they stay flat? I don't know if you made any additional pricing adjustments on the export side.

就是煤炭產量從第二季到第三季的連續變化，我們是否可以認為會持平？我不確定你們在出口端是否做了任何額外的定價調整。

Flat -- you should expect them to be flat.

持平——你應該預期會持平。

Okay. Great. And then just one other question, Clarence. It wasn't so clear to me, some of the questions on pricing earlier. Are you starting to or thinking about entering somewhat of a demarketing phase to push pricing a little bit more aggressively, even if it means giving up a little bit of volume?

好的。很好。然後還有一個問題，Clarence。我對先前一些關於定價的問題不是很清楚。你們是否開始、或正在考慮進入某種「去行銷（demarketing）」階段，以更積極地推動價格，即使這意味著要犧牲一點運量？

No. We are not the demarketing, but we are aggressively pricing our products.

不。我們不做去行銷，但我們會積極為產品定價。

Okay. Great. Thanks for the time, guys.

好的。很好。謝謝你們撥冗。

Jason Seidl from Cowen.

Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

Real quickly, when you think about the impacts of the service levels, obviously you talked about on the cost side, do you think you left any money on the table on the intermodal product in terms of your ability to take prices up, especially in a tight truckload market?

很快問一下，當你們思考服務水準的影響時，你們顯然談到成本端；你是否認為在聯運產品上，你們在提價能力方面有把錢留在桌上（未能充分收取），尤其是在卡車整車市場緊俏的情況下？

I tell our team that we always are leaving money on the table. (laughter) I don't know what you want me to say -- yes.

我跟團隊說，我們永遠都有把錢留在桌上。（笑聲）我不知道你要我怎麼回答——是的。

Okay. That's fair enough.

好的。這樣說也公平。

As the truck market changes, we will respond to the marketplace.

隨著卡車市場變化，我們會對市場做出回應。

Absolutely.

完全同意。

Okay, that's what I want to hear. When I'm thinking, also, about all the equipment that you are bringing on, obviously some of it is because service is down, and some of it's because you are just getting more business. How much do you think you guys can start shedding in 2015, assuming your service levels come back?

好，這就是我想聽到的。另外我在想，你們正在引進的所有設備，顯然有一部分是因為服務下滑，另一部分則是因為你們業務增加。假設服務水準回升，你們認為 2015 年可以開始削減多少？

In terms of the locomotives, I think you are referring to, predominantly?

你主要是指機車（locomotives）那一塊，對嗎？

Locomotives and even in terms of headcount, how should we start thinking about that? Because some of them, it seems like you are just trying to extend some people and put off their retirements a little bit.

機車，甚至人力編制也是；我們該怎麼思考？因為其中一些看起來像是你們只是想把部分人員撐住，並把他們的退休時間稍微往後延。

On the locomotive side, for some reason, if there's no need for those locomotives, if the network fluidity comes back, we do have a fair amount of leases that we can turn back. So, that's part of the safety lever, so to speak, if the demand profile is not a strong as we currently think it is.

在機車方面，如果因為某些原因不需要那些機車、如果網路流動性回來了，我們確實有相當多的租賃可以退租。所以可以說，那是其中一個安全槓桿；如果需求輪廓沒有我們目前想的那麼強。

On the crew side, we are hiring, obviously for attrition, but also for growth. And we always have the flexibility, if we need to, to do furlough retention. That's something that we normally don't look at unless we think it's a longer, more sustained period of time that we don't need those crews. Because we do hire them and they are expensive to go put through training school. You spend a fair amount of time and effort on there, so you don't want to do that unnecessarily. But we do have that ability if we are incorrect in our forecast that the growth will continue.

在乘務員（crew）方面，我們當然會因應自然流失而招募，但也會因應成長而招募。而且如果需要，我們一向有彈性可以進行留職停薪（furlough）保留。除非我們認為有一段更長、更持續的期間不需要那些乘務員，否則我們通常不會考慮這件事。因為我們招募他們，送去訓練學校的成本很高。你在那上面投入相當多的時間與精力，所以不希望沒有必要就這麼做。但如果我們對成長將持續的預測是錯的，我們確實有這個能力。

So, Fredrik, in terms of the total headcount for 2015, you would expect growth over 2014?

所以，Fredrik，就 2015 年的總人數而言，你會預期比 2014 年成長嗎？

I think that based on the current volume assumptions that we have, that continues to be robust, I think the answer is yes. I don't think it's going to be significant, because I think the operating leverage is going to be, especially as we get the network fluidity back, I think there's an opportunity to see great leverage there.

我認為以我們目前的運量假設來看，仍然相當強勁，我想答案是會。我不認為會很顯著，因為我認為營運槓桿會發揮作用，尤其當我們把網路流動性恢復後，我認為那裡有機會看到很好的槓桿效益。

Fantastic. Gentlemen, I appreciate the time, as always.

太棒了。各位先生，一如既往，感謝你們撥冗。

Ben Hartford from Baird.

Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Fred, just wanted to clarify the comment that you made about the third-quarter 2013 EPS. You had said that the number you are referring to is $0.45 from a year ago, correct?

Fred，我想釐清你對 2013 年第三季 EPS 的評論。你說你指的是去年同期的 0.45 美元，對嗎？

That's correct.

沒錯。

Okay, good. Not to beat this pricing discussion to death, but I understand that you guys look at the spread between RCAF and price. But you are entering a bit of an unprecedented period with regard to pricing and the truckload rate growth, contractual rate growth is accelerating, and faster than what you guys are realizing within the merchandise and intermodal product, first time in at least a cycle. Is it incorrect to look at core contractual truckload rates as setting the tone for both the intermodal business and even some of the merchandise business when you do set and reprice, say, on an annualized basis?

好的，很好。不是要把這個定價討論講到死，但我理解你們會看 RCAF 與價格之間的差距。但你們正進入一段在定價與卡車整車運價成長方面有點前所未見的時期：合約運價成長正在加速，而且比你們在商品（merchandise）與聯運產品中實現的還快，至少在一個景氣循環中是第一次。當你們在設定與重新定價（例如以年化基礎）時，把核心合約整車運價視為聯運業務、甚至部分商品業務的定調基準，這樣看是否不正確？

So, to the extent that truckload pricing growth continues to be above what you are seeing within those core segments, certainly above that 2.5% number that you saw this quarter, that there can be upside, or that you can price to market. You are not beholden to some sort of fixed spread internally between RCAF and what you feel like the market can digest, correct?

也就是說，只要整車定價成長持續高於你在那些核心區塊看到的水準，當然也高於你本季看到的 2.5% 那個數字，就可能有上行空間，或你們可以按市場定價。你們不會被內部某種固定的 RCAF 與你們認為市場可承受價格之間的固定價差所綁住，對吧？

That's correct, Ben. I think it's absolutely the right way to look at it.

沒錯，Ben。我認為這絕對是正確的看法。

Okay, good. Thank you.

好的，很好。謝謝。

Cherilyn Radbourne from TD Securities.

TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

I'm just going to ask one. And that relates to international intermodal, which for me was probably the biggest surprise in terms of the volume performance for you and for the industry in the quarter because it's been pretty tepid for a while. So, I just wondered if you could give some color on how much of the growth you think was catch-up from Q1, how much was a pull forward related to the labor contract expiry on the West Coast, and how much you think was organic.

我只問一個。是關於國際聯運；就我而言，這可能是本季你們以及整個產業在運量表現上最大的驚喜，因為它低迷了一段時間。所以我想請你們補充一些背景：你們認為成長中有多少是第一季的補回（catch-up），多少是因為西岸勞工合約到期而提前拉貨（pull forward），以及多少是自然成長（organic）。

Cherilyn, this is Clarence. I think it's difficult to segment into those three areas, but I will tell you this. Our customers told us that they shipped earlier this year, significantly earlier, in anticipation of a ILWU work stoppages on the West Coast. So, all the ships out of Asia were fully profiled, coming to the West Coast and via the Canal, in order to avoid that. So, that certainly had an impact. There was some impact due to winter weather. And we expect to see that international traffic in the low single digits going forward.

Cherilyn，我是 Clarence。我認為很難把它切分成那三個部分，但我可以告訴你這點：我們的客戶告訴我們，他們今年提早出貨，而且是顯著提早，因為預期西岸可能發生 ILWU 停工。因此，所有從亞洲出發的船舶都滿載排程，前往西岸並透過運河航線，以避免那種情況。所以那確實造成了影響。冬季天候也有一些影響。而我們預期未來國際貨量將維持在低個位數成長。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you, Clarence. That's it for me.

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝你，Clarence。我就這些。

Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.

RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

This is Erin Lytollis in for Walter. I was just hoping to get some more color on the expansion of crude capabilities across your network. You saw some fairly strong growth and I was wondering where you see that business going forward and the timing of that coming online.

我是代替 Walter 的 Erin Lytollis。我只是希望能更了解你們在整個網路擴充原油運輸能力的情況。你們看到相當強勁的成長，我想知道你們如何看待這項業務未來的走向，以及相關產能上線的時程。

Where do we see crude expansions? Is that your question?

我們在哪裡看到原油擴建？這是您的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Obviously, there's expansions going all on the East Coast, as we speak. They're predominantly in the Philadelphia area. Some are in the New Jersey areas where we are seeing the current expansions. We have two customers that are looking at expanding in the Jersey area. I'd rather, for obvious reasons, not mention their names. But that's where you're seeing the expansions occur.

很明顯地，目前東岸各地都在進行擴建。主要集中在費城地區。另外在新澤西的一些地區，我們也看到正在進行的擴建。我們有兩家客戶正在評估在新澤西地區擴建。基於顯而易見的原因，我寧可不提他們的名字。但擴建就是在那些地方發生。

Okay. And then this is all coming on your network. What sort of volume opportunity do you see from these expansions?

好的。然後這些都會在你們的網路上運行。從這些擴建中，你們看到什麼樣的運量機會？

Right now we're averaging around, for 2014, plus or minus 20 trains per week. We could see some slight increase in that as we go forward. There's a finite capacity number, both, as you know, from what the Bakken can produce and from what the refiners can consume.

目前我們在2014年平均大約每週20列車，上下浮動一些。隨著時間推進，我們可能會看到些微增加。但如您所知，無論是巴肯地區的產量，或是煉油廠的消化量，都存在一個有限的產能上限。

Okay. Thanks very much for your time.

好的。非常感謝您撥冗。

Justin Long from Stephens.

Stephens 的 Justin Long。

I just wanted to clarify one thing quickly. Could you talk about the congestion-related costs that you are assuming in your guidance for the back half of the year? Are you assuming they stayed pretty consistent with what we saw in the second quarter?

我想快速釐清一件事。能否談談你們在下半年指引中所假設的、與壅塞相關的成本？你們是否假設它們與我們在第二季看到的水準大致一致？

Yes. What we said in the prepared remarks was that until we see meaningful improvement in the network fluidity and velocity, it is reasonable to assume that that run rate of about $10 million or so a period, or $30 million a quarter, is the right place to think about it.

是的。我們在事先準備的發言中提到，在我們看到網路流動性與速度有實質改善之前，合理的假設是：每期大約1,000萬美元左右的運行水準，或每季3,000萬美元，是思考這件事的合適基準。

And you're not assuming that that fluidity improves until 2015?

所以你們不假設流動性要到2015年才會改善？

No, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying right now, from what we are seeing, we're saying if it doesn't improve, it's the right place to be in terms of thinking about what the incremental costs will be. If we see meaningful improvement here during the summer months, which is a possibility as the demand is a little bit lower during the summer as we go through the period here until Labor Day, there is an opportunity we can see meaningful improvement and costs could come down. But that's yet to be seen.

不，我不是這個意思。我只是說，就我們目前所看到的情況，我們的說法是：如果沒有改善，那麼以這個水準來思考增量成本是合適的。如果我們在夏季月份看到實質改善——這是有可能的，因為在夏季到勞動節之前這段期間需求會稍微低一些——那麼我們有機會看到明顯改善，成本也可能下降。但目前仍有待觀察。

Okay, fair enough. That's helpful. And as a second question, I was wondering if you could talk about what you are seeing in the intermodal pricing environment. Would you say that core pricing in intermodal is pretty close to that 2.6% average between merchandise and intermodal, or is it a little bit more competitive and tracking below that level?

好的，可以理解。這很有幫助。第二個問題，我想請教你們目前看到的聯運定價環境。你會說聯運的核心定價大致接近商品與聯運合計平均2.6%的水準，還是說競爭更激烈、走勢低於那個水準？

I think you would say intermodal is a little bit more competitive and tracking a little lower than that level that's in there right now.

我認為你可以說聯運的競爭稍微更激烈一些，走勢也比目前那個水準略低。

Okay. Great. I know it's been a long call. I will leave it at that. Thanks for the time.

好的。很好。我知道這通電話很長。我就問到這裡。謝謝您撥冗。

Cleo Zagrean from Macquarie Capital.

Macquarie Capital 的 Cleo Zagrean。

I have to follow-up on the prior questions and some before it in terms of intermodal pricing. Can you help us with a little more detail on the [sliprocene] door to door and what you would call your main business, and the trends for price there, and where do you see that going forward?

我必須就前面關於聯運定價的問題，以及更早之前的一些問題追問一下。能否就你們所說的 [sliprocene] 門到門，以及你們所稱的主要業務，提供更詳細的說明：那裡的價格趨勢如何，以及你們對未來的看法？

You were fading on me there. The intermodal pricing on the domestic door-to-door and where do we see that going?

你剛剛聲音有點斷斷續續。你是問國內門到門的聯運定價，以及我們認為未來會怎麼走？

What is the share of door to door within your entire intermodal business? How come that had such a significant impact on price? If you could break up what you would call core intermodal pricing trend versus door to door.

門到門在你們整體聯運業務中的占比是多少？為什麼它會對價格造成那麼顯著的影響？如果可以的話，請把你們所稱的核心聯運定價趨勢與門到門分開說明。

It's a relatively small percent, the door to door is, of our overall pricing, if that's what your question is.

如果你的問題是這個，那麼門到門在我們整體定價中所占的比例相對很小。

Okay. So, therefore, we can infer that intermodal pricing across business was relatively weak? In other words, the decline was broad based?

好的。因此，我們可以推論聯運各業務的定價相對疲弱？換句話說，下降是全面性的？

No. I wouldn't infer that at all. I would say that our intermodal pricing was somewhere in the range of around 2%, a little bit above that.

不。我完全不會這樣推論。我會說我們的聯運定價大約在2%左右，略高於2%。

Okay. The second question I had was in terms of the impact of business mix on margin as opposed to price. Can you help us understand how mix would play into your aspiration to get continued strong incremental margins in that 50% range? Thank you.

好的。我第二個問題是，關於業務組合對毛利率的影響，相較於價格本身的影響。能否幫助我們理解，組合如何影響你們希望持續維持約50%強勁增量利潤率的目標？謝謝。

The margin mix continues in terms of favoring more intermodal. But because of the work that we've done over the last few years to improve the profitability of that business segment, it is now par with the rest of our merchandise business. This quarter we saw an increase in some of our coal business, which is a welcome sign. So, that's certainly helpful, too.

就毛利率組合而言，仍然是偏向更多聯運。但由於過去幾年我們為提升該業務區塊獲利能力所做的工作，現在它已與我們其他商品運輸業務持平。本季我們看到部分煤炭業務增加，這是令人樂見的跡象。所以這也確實有幫助。

And, so, as we think about the future and the guidance we have in place, I think we have the right mix thoughts there. All our business is profitable and we would like to grow all our business as much as we possibly can going forward. So, we're somewhat indifferent to the mix that we are seeing.

因此，當我們思考未來以及目前的指引時，我認為我們對組合的看法是正確的。我們所有業務都是有利可圖的，我們也希望未來盡可能擴大所有業務的成長。所以，對於目前看到的業務組合，我們某種程度上並不特別在意。

Thank you very much. Really appreciate it.

非常感謝。真的很感激。

Everyone, thank you for your attention. We'll see you next quarter.

各位，感謝大家的關注。我們下季再見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may now disconnect your line.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛斷電話。