Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Carlyle Group's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

感謝您的支持，歡迎來到凱雷集團 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。

I would now like to hand the call over to Head of Public Investor Relations, Daniel Harris. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話轉給公共投資者關係主管 Daniel Harris。請繼續。

Thank you, [Atif]. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; and our Chief Financial Officer, Curtis Buser. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is also available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website.

謝謝你，[Atif]。早上好，歡迎來到凱雷 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起打電話的是我們的首席執行官 Harvey Schwartz；以及我們的首席財務官 Curtis Buser。今天上午早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和一份詳細的收益報告，也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。此電話會議正在進行網絡直播，重播將在我們的網站上提供。

We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for, measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We have provided a reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available. Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them.

我們將在今天的電話會議中提及某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些措施不應孤立於或替代根據公認會計原則編制的措施。我們已在合理可用的範圍內，在我們的收益發布中向 GAAP 提供了這些措施的對賬。今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述都不能保證未來的表現，不應過分依賴它們。

These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time.

這些陳述基於當前的管理層預期，並涉及固有的風險和不確定性，包括我們在 10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中確定的那些可能導致實際結果與所示結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。凱雷不承擔隨時更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

I'm going to begin with a quick discussion of our results and then hand the call over to Harvey. For the first quarter, we generated $193 million in fee-related earnings and $272 million in distributable earnings, with DE per common share of $0.63. We raised $6.8 billion of new capital and deployed $3.8 billion in capital across our carry funds. Our accrued carry balance remains at a robust $4 billion. We declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share.

我將首先快速討論我們的結果，然後將電話轉給哈維。第一季度，我們產生了 1.93 億美元的費用相關收益和 2.72 億美元的可分配收益，每股普通股 DE 為 0.63 美元。我們籌集了 68 億美元的新資本，並在我們的套利基金中部署了 38 億美元的資本。我們的應計利差餘額保持在強勁的 40 億美元。我們宣布派發每股普通股 0.35 美元的季度股息。

We know it's a busy morning, and as we already have a long queue, please limit yourself to 1 question and move back into the queue for any additional follow-ups. And with that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

我們知道今天早上很忙，因為我們已經排了很長的隊，請將自己限制在 1 個問題上，然後回到隊列中進行任何其他跟進。說到這裡，讓我把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Harvey Schwartz。

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. It's great to be here with all of you. Some of you I've worked with in the past and others, it would be great to meet you soon.

謝謝，丹。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。很高興能和大家在一起。你們中的一些人我過去和其他人一起工作過，很高興很快見到你們。

There are 3 things I plan to review today. Our first quarter performance, the macro environment and our general outlook. And lastly, I'll end with some initial thoughts on my first 80 days here at Carlyle.

我今天計劃複習 3 件事。我們第一季度的業績、宏觀環境和總體前景。最後，我將以我在凱雷的前 80 天的一些初步想法作為結尾。

First, with regards to our performance, let me be clear, we're not pleased with our first quarter results. Curt will walk you through the details, but our activity levels and investments, realizations and fundraising were more muted than our prior expectations. We continue to navigate one of the most complex financial markets in recent memory, which is clouding the near-term outlook and impacting market sentiment. It's our expectation these effects will last throughout the remainder of the year and impact both FRE and distributable earnings.

首先，關於我們的表現，讓我明確一點，我們對第一季度的業績並不滿意。 Curt 將向您介紹詳細信息，但我們的活動水平和投資、實現和籌款活動比我們之前的預期要低調。我們繼續應對近期記憶中最複雜的金融市場之一，這給近期前景蒙上陰影並影響市場情緒。我們預計這些影響將持續到今年剩餘時間，並影響 FRE 和可分配收益。

That said, importantly, we are confident that Carlyle is well positioned for when markets stabilize and activity levels ultimately pick up. We don't invest and we don't run the firm quarter-to-quarter. The firm had the long history of successfully investing through all cycles.

也就是說，重要的是，我們相信凱雷在市場穩定和活動水平最終回升時處於有利地位。我們不投資，也不按季度運營公司。該公司擁有成功投資所有周期的悠久歷史。

We have a leading private equity business with a long-term track record, a fast-growing global credit business and a high-performing investment solutions business. We have $381 billion in assets under management and $73 billion in capital available to (inaudible) across strategies and geographies. And we have long-standing, very deep relationships with the largest and most sophisticated global investors.

我們擁有擁有長期業績記錄的領先私募股權業務、快速增長的全球信貸業務和高效的投資解決方案業務。我們管理著 3810 億美元的資產和 730 億美元的可用於（聽不清）跨戰略和地域的資本。我們與全球最大、最老練的投資者建立了長期、深厚的關係。

There is substantial and very attractive white space for Carlyle to continue to grow our platform, which alongside a disciplined approach joining the firm, will ultimately expand margins, expand FRE and grow distributable earnings.

凱雷有大量且非常有吸引力的空白空間可以繼續發展我們的平台，這與加入公司的紀律方法一起，最終將擴大利潤率，擴大 FRE 並增加可分配收益。

Shifting now to the macro environment. For the past 30 to 40 years, there were several mega trends at play. These mega trends underpinned economic activity, a long-term downtrend in interest rates, supporting an upward trend in equity markets and asset prices broadly, markets benefited from historically low inflation and increased globalization and technological innovation allowed global economies to thrive.

現在轉向宏觀環境。在過去的 30 到 40 年裡，有幾個大趨勢在起作用。這些大趨勢支撐著經濟活動，利率的長期下降趨勢，支持股票市場和資產價格的普遍上升趨勢，市場受益於歷史低位的通貨膨脹和全球化的加劇以及技術創新使全球經濟蓬勃發展。

Today, for the first time in many investors' lifetimes, some of those trends are slowing or even reversing. Cost of capital has gone up. Discount rates and cap rates have increased and are pressuring valuations as well as expected returns. Of course, this shift in trends will take time to work through global markets and asset prices.

今天，在許多投資者的一生中，其中一些趨勢正在放緩甚至逆轉，這是第一次。資本成本上升了。貼現率和資本化率上升，對估值和預期回報構成壓力。當然，這種趨勢轉變需要時間來影響全球市場和資產價格。

Adding even more complexity, while the banking system in the U.S. and abroad generally have healthy balance sheets from years of capital building, they're now tightening underwriting standards. And regional banks, following recent stress, are likely to face increased regulation and capital requirements.

更複雜的是，雖然美國和國外的銀行系統經過多年的資本建設，通常擁有健康的資產負債表，但他們現在正在收緊承保標準。地區性銀行在最近的壓力之後，可能會面臨更多的監管和資本要求。

In my experience, this will almost certainly lead to a further tightening of lending standards, dampening the pace of economic activity. While companies are not raising capital the same frequency as prior years, their core needs haven't changed. They need capital to grow and capital to refinance liabilities. This is where our Global Credit business is taking share from traditional lenders. And just this week, you will have seen Fortitude announce a major reinsurance transaction that will accelerate the growth of their business. For our LPs who require help managing their portfolios in this complex environment, our Global Investment Solutions business is well positioned to meet this demand and continue to grow the platform.

根據我的經驗，這幾乎肯定會導致貸款標准進一步收緊，從而抑制經濟活動的步伐。雖然公司籌集資金的頻率與往年不同，但他們的核心需求沒有改變。他們需要資本來增長，需要資本來為負債再融資。這就是我們的全球信貸業務從傳統貸方手中奪取份額的地方。就在本週，您會看到 Fortitude 宣布了一項重大的再保險交易，這將加速其業務的增長。對於需要在這種複雜環境中管理其投資組合的有限合夥人而言，我們的全球投資解決方案業務已做好充分準備來滿足這一需求並繼續發展該平台。

The important point to remember is that Carlyle has operated through significant market dislocations before. We remain actively engaged with sellers, buyers and capital providers around the world. We're very front-footed. We certainly don't invest for a single quarter or a year. We raised capital and we invest for the long term. The opportunities across asset classes, regions and sectors are growing increasingly more attractive as markets remain volatile and uncertain.

需要記住的重要一點是，凱雷此前曾經歷過重大的市場混亂。我們仍然積極與世界各地的賣家、買家和資本提供者接觸。我們非常前腳。我們當然不會投資一個季度或一年。我們籌集資金並進行長期投資。隨著市場仍然動盪和不確定，跨資產類別、地區和行業的機會變得越來越有吸引力。

While we remain cautious on the near-term environment, we also are beginning to see opportunities to put a huge amount of capital to work that will help drive long-term performance and asset growth. This is an exciting time to be an investor in global private markets.

雖然我們對近期環境保持謹慎，但我們也開始看到投入大量資金的機會，這將有助於推動長期業績和資產增長。這是成為全球私募市場投資者的激動人心的時刻。

I'll close with some thoughts regarding start in my new role. I spent the past few months meeting our people and getting to know our investors around the world.

我將以一些關於開始我的新角色的想法作為結束。在過去的幾個月裡，我會見了我們的員工並了解了我們在世界各地的投資者。

Carlyle is an iconic brand, one I've admired my entire career. We have an experienced and talented team of professionals who are up for any challenge, and that team is a big part of why I'm here. Our culture is strong. It reflects the 35-year history of the firm, and it's made up of a group of talented, smart, hard-working, world-class professionals who care deeply about our firm and we are committed to being a fiduciary for our clients.

Carlyle 是一個標誌性品牌，我在整個職業生涯中一直欽佩它。我們擁有一支經驗豐富、才華橫溢的專業團隊，他們可以迎接任何挑戰，而這個團隊是我來到這裡的重要原因。我們的文化很強大。它反映了公司 35 年的歷史，它由一群才華橫溢、聰明、勤奮、世界一流的專業人士組成，他們非常關心我們公司，我們致力於成為客戶的受託人。

We are in an industry that is growing and there is a massive long-term potential for Carlyle. Everything starts with investment performance and our firm was built to provide the highest level of care to our investors and to capture the significant opportunities that continue to emerge.

我們所處的行業正在發展，凱雷擁有巨大的長期潛力。一切都始於投資業績，我們公司的成立旨在為我們的投資者提供最高水平的關懷，並抓住不斷出現的重要機會。

Throughout my career, I've been a believer in disciplined growth. As we grow, we are also working to identify areas where we can instill more discipline around our operations. This approach will deliver returns for our shareholders and fund investors alike. It's an exciting time for the industry and for Carlyle and I'm very excited to be here and be part of it.

在我的整個職業生涯中，我一直堅信有紀律的成長。隨著我們的成長，我們也在努力確定我們可以在我們的運營中灌輸更多紀律的領域。這種方法將為我們的股東和基金投資者帶來回報。對於這個行業和凱雷來說，這是一個激動人心的時刻，我很高興來到這裡並成為其中的一員。

With that, I'll hand things over to Curt to provide a more detailed breakdown of the quarter.

有了這個，我將把事情交給 Curt，以提供更詳細的季度細分。

Thank you, Harvey, and good morning, everyone. I want to start with an outlook on 3 particular areas that complement Harvey's comments and put our financial results in context with the current macro environment.

謝謝哈維，大家早上好。我想從 3 個特定領域的展望開始，這些領域補充了哈維的評論，並將我們的財務業績與當前的宏觀環境相結合。

First, with respect to fundraising. We continue to expect to raise more capital this year than we did last year. Though the composition of that fundraising has skewed further towards global credit and investment solutions and less from corporate private equity. Over the balance of this year, we expect to see CLO issuance resume in addition to incremental fundraising for a number of credit products as well as raising capital in our secondaries and co-investment strategies and investment solutions.

首先，關於籌款。我們繼續期望今年籌集到比去年更多的資金。儘管籌資的構成進一步偏向於全球信貸和投資解決方案，而較少來自企業私募股權。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們預計除了為一些信貸產品增加融資以及在我們的二級市場和共同投資策略和投資解決方案中籌集資金外，我們還會看到 CLO 發行恢復。

While we believe that we will attract a significant amount of capital for our next vintage of buyout funds, we no longer expect these funds in the aggregate to be the same size as their predecessors and now expect to see a decline in buyout fund sizes across most geographies.

雖然我們相信我們將為下一個收購基金吸引大量資金，但我們不再期望這些基金的總規模與其前身相同，現在預計大多數收購基金的規模都會下降地理。

Second, as you heard Harvey indicate, we expect that the slowdown in capital markets activity will result in a muted level of near-term realizations, pressure on capital markets transaction fees and lower performance-related earnings. That said, we continue to have $4 billion in net accrued carry and believe the firm's ability to monetize that carry will be strong over the next few years.

其次，正如您聽到 Harvey 所說，我們預計資本市場活動放緩將導致近期變現水平低迷、資本市場交易費用承壓以及業績相關收益下降。也就是說，我們繼續擁有 40 億美元的淨應計利差，並相信該公司在未來幾年內將利差貨幣化的能力將很強。

And third, our 2023 FRE outlook. Given uncertainty in current market conditions, including the impact from a slower transactional environment and a lower buyout fundraising outlook, our 2023 FRE is likely to be modestly below last year. While we expect to see top line fee growth this year, we also expect to see continued investments into our teams and businesses.

第三，我們的 2023 年 FRE 展望。鑑於當前市場狀況的不確定性，包括交易環境放緩和收購籌資前景較低的影響，我們 2023 年的 FRE 可能會略低於去年。雖然我們預計今年的收入會增長，但我們也希望看到對我們的團隊和業務的持續投資。

We will be disciplined in managing our expenses while at the same time, ensuring the firm is well positioned to grow over time, notably across our global credit platform, extending the capabilities of our capital markets team and supporting continued growth at Fortitude.

我們將嚴格管理我們的費用，同時確保公司能夠隨著時間的推移而發展，特別是在我們的全球信貸平台上，擴展我們資本市場團隊的能力並支持 Fortitude 的持續增長。

Now let me dig a bit deeper into the major drivers of our results. Fee-related earnings of $193 million increased 6% over the first quarter of 2022. Top line management fees of $506 million were up 11% year-over-year, with the strongest growth in our global credit platform through a combination of organic growth and the impact from strategic transactions last year. Fee-earning assets under management of $271 billion increased 29% from the first quarter last year, driven by $28 billion of fundraising over that same time period, alongside strategic transactions completed last year.

現在讓我更深入地探討我們結果的主要驅動因素。費用相關收益為 1.93 億美元，比 2022 年第一季度增長 6%。頂線管理費用為 5.06 億美元，同比增長 11%，通過有機增長和去年戰略交易的影響。受同期 280 億美元籌資以及去年完成的戰略交易的推動，管理的收費資產規模為 2710 億美元，較去年第一季度增長 29%。

2 days ago, on May 2, Fortitude announced an agreement to reinsure $28 billion of life and fixed annuity products. This Fortitude transaction is a great example of its strategy to become a preferred solutions provider to large global insurers as it leverages its strong balance sheet and broad capabilities to pursue growth.

2 天前，即 5 月 2 日，Fortitude 宣布了一項為 280 億美元的人壽和固定年金產品再保險的協議。 Fortitude 交易是其成為大型全球保險公司首選解決方案提供商戰略的一個很好的例子，因為它利用其強大的資產負債表和廣泛的能力來追求增長。

Fortitude expects to close this transaction in mid-2023, pending customary regulatory approvals. When the transaction closes, Carlyle's fee earning assets under management will increase by the amount of the reinsurance transaction as part of our strategic advisory services agreement with Fortitude. And over time, we expect about 20% of the general account assets related to this transaction to be directly invested into Carlyle investment strategies.

Fortitude 預計將在 2023 年年中完成這筆交易，等待慣例監管部門的批准。交易完成後，作為我們與 Fortitude 戰略諮詢服務協議的一部分，凱雷管理的收費資產將增加再保險交易的金額。並且隨著時間的推移，我們預計與本次交易相關的普通賬戶資產中約有 20% 將直接投資於凱雷投資策略。

The impact of this transaction was included in our updated fee-related earnings outlook for the year. Fee-related performance revenue of $29 million in the first quarter was down from $45 million last year as the contribution from Core Plus real estate was muted in the first quarter, while global credit fee-related performance revenue was up more than 30%.

該交易的影響包含在我們更新的年度費用相關收益展望中。第一季度與費用相關的業績收入為 2900 萬美元，低於去年的 4500 萬美元，因為第一季度 Core Plus 房地產的貢獻減弱，而全球信貸費用相關的業績收入增長了 30% 以上。

Looking forward to the second quarter, we expect to benefit from a substantially higher level of fee-related performance revenue in global private equity. This is because we expect a significant step-up in the crystallizing of gains next quarter in Core Plus Real Estate, which will then moderate in the following quarters. As we have previously noted, we expect to generate significant revenues in this line item every year, though certain quarters throughout the year will be higher than others.

展望第二季度，我們預計將受益於全球私募股權費用相關業績收入水平的大幅提高。這是因為我們預計下個季度 Core Plus Real Estate 的收益將顯著增加，然後在接下來的幾個季度中放緩。正如我們之前指出的那樣，我們預計每年都會在這一行項目中產生可觀的收入，儘管全年的某些季度會高於其他季度。

Also keep in mind that fee-related performance revenues compensation expense which is captured in our FRE compensation line will vary directly at about 45% of revenue. FRE margin was 35% this quarter, down modestly from 36% in the first quarter of last year. While total fee revenues were up 7% compared to last year, FRE expenses increased 8%, leading to the margin compression.

另請記住，我們的 FRE 補償項目中包含的與費用相關的績效收入補償費用將直接變化，約為收入的 45%。本季度的 FRE 利潤率為 35%，略低於去年第一季度的 36%。雖然總費用收入與去年相比增長了 7%，但 FRE 費用增長了 8%，導致利潤率壓縮。

For the full year, we expect FRE margin to be modestly lower compared to 2022. Longer term, scaling the firm and operating effectively remains a key priority, and we expect to see FRE margins resume their upward trend in 2024.

對於全年，我們預計 FRE 利潤率將比 2022 年略低。從長遠來看，擴大公司規模和有效運營仍然是一個關鍵優先事項，我們預計 FRE 利潤率將在 2024 年恢復上升趨勢。

Moving on, our portfolio continues to perform well relative to choppy public markets with overall portfolio appreciation of 2% in the first quarter across our carry funds and appreciation of 7% over the past 12 months. This is well higher relative to a 9% decline in the MSCI, All country World Index over that same time period. Our Global Credit Carry Fund portfolio rose 3% in the quarter and is also up 7% over the last 12 months. While our corporate private equity portfolio was up 1% in the quarter and 3% over the past year.

繼續前進，相對於動蕩的公開市場，我們的投資組合繼續表現良好，第一季度我們的套利基金的整體投資組合升值 2%，過去 12 個月升值 7%。相對於同一時期 MSCI 所有國家世界指數 9% 的跌幅，這一數字要高得多。我們的 Global Credit Carry Fund 投資組合在本季度上漲了 3%，在過去 12 個月中也上漲了 7%。而我們的企業私募股權投資組合在本季度增長了 1%，在過去一年中增長了 3%。

Appreciation in our infrastructure and natural resources portfolio was flat in the quarter amidst volatile but range-bound energy prices, but this portfolio is still up 24% over the last 12 months and appreciation in our Global Investment Solutions funds was up 5% in the quarter and 7% over the past year.

在能源價格波動但區間波動的情況下，本季度我們的基礎設施和自然資源投資組合的升值持平，但該投資組合在過去 12 個月中仍增長了 24%，我們的全球投資解決方案基金的升值在本季度增長了 5%和過去一年的 7%。

A few other quick points. Equity-based compensation expense of $57 million increased from $41 million in the first quarter last year as an elevated level of equity grants to employees, and our new CEO grants in February began to impact results. We expect to see this expense tick higher in the second quarter and then remain at an elevated level.

其他一些要點。基於股權的薪酬支出從去年第一季度的 4100 萬美元增加到 5700 萬美元，原因是對員工的股權獎勵水平提高，而且我們在 2 月份新授予的 CEO 補助金開始影響業績。我們預計該費用將在第二季度走高，然後保持在較高水平。

We repurchased $100 million in shares in the first quarter. And as of March 31, our Board of Directors reset and increased our repurchase authorization to $500 million. Our balance sheet remains solid, over $1 billion in cash and nothing drawn against our $1 billion revolver. We have the flexibility to remain opportunistic if prospects arise to deploy our valuable capital. And as we have said before, our DE effective tax rate is likely to be volatile on a quarterly basis, and this quarter, it was lower than normal, and we still expect it to average around 20% on an annualized basis.

我們在第一季度回購了 1 億美元的股票。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的董事會重置並將我們的回購授權增加到 5 億美元。我們的資產負債表依然穩健，現金超過 10 億美元，而且我們的 10 億美元左輪手槍沒有任何動用。如果出現部署我們寶貴資本的前景，我們可以靈活地保持機會主義。正如我們之前所說，我們的 DE 有效稅率可能會按季度波動，本季度低於正常水平，我們仍然預計年化平均稅率在 20% 左右。

In sum, while there are some short-term challenges, we are optimistic long term and see opportunities for growth and value creation.

總而言之，雖然存在一些短期挑戰，但我們對長期持樂觀態度，並看到了增長和價值創造的機會。

With that, let me turn the call back over to Harvey who would like to make a few closing remarks.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉回哈維，他想做一些結束語。

Thanks, Curt. Before we move on to Q&A, I wanted to reiterate that while there are near-term challenges, there is tremendous long-term opportunity for the firm. The overall positive trends in the industry and the strength of our brand and our people, well, these are the reasons why I'm here. It really is quite a privilege to be part of this team and part of this firm.

謝謝，柯特。在我們繼續進行問答之前，我想重申，雖然存在近期挑戰，但公司存在巨大的長期機遇。行業的整體積極趨勢以及我們品牌和員工的實力，嗯，這些就是我來這裡的原因。成為這個團隊和這家公司的一員真的是一種榮幸。

Let me turn the call over to the operator so we can take your questions. Again, great to be here with you.

讓我把電話轉給接線員，以便我們回答您的問題。再一次，很高興和你在一起。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr of Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

Good to talk to you again.

很高興再次和你交談。

Brian, you're just breaking up a little bit.

布賴恩，你只是有點分手了。

Good to talk to you again. I'm curious, it's a little bit of a unique situation, but new CEO, I heard some of your previous comments. I'm curious how you described maybe in layman terms, what are you here to do? I saw the quote in the beginning of the slide deck of continuing to expand and diversify the platform. I heard your comment about substantial and very active white space for Carlyle. So I was wondering if you could expand on that a little bit.

很高興再次和你交談。我很好奇，這種情況有點特殊，但是新任首席執行官，我聽到了你之前的一些評論。我很好奇你是如何用外行的方式描述的，你來這裡做什麼？我在幻燈片的開頭看到了繼續擴展和多樣化平台的引述。我聽到了您對 Carlyle 大量且非常活躍的空白空間的評論。所以我想知道你是否可以擴展一下。

Okay. Well, Glenn, it's good to hear your voice, even a little garbled, but nice to chat with you again. I hope you've been well.

好的。嗯，格倫，很高興聽到你的聲音，即使有點亂，但很高興再次和你聊天。我希望你過得很好。

Well, maybe I should back up for a second and before I get directly to your question. Maybe I should just talk a little bit about why I'm here and how I got here and that decision-making process. And so as I said in my remarks, I've known about Carlyle for my entire career. It's an amazing brand. I know the power of an amazing brand.

好吧，也許我應該先退一步，然後再直接回答您的問題。也許我應該談談我為什麼在這裡，我是如何來到這裡的，以及那個決策過程。因此，正如我在發言中所說，我在整個職業生涯中都了解凱雷。這是一個了不起的品牌。我知道一個了不起的品牌的力量。

Since I met with the founders, we clicked immediately. And as I got to know the people, I knew the talent in the organization and the investing prowess and then when I -- really, when I looked at the valuation gap between our firm and other firms, it just didn't make any sense to me. And so the decision to be here actually ended up being quite easy. And as I said, really quite a privilege for me to be part of this team and part of this firm.

自從我與創始人會面後，我們立刻就合拍了。當我了解這些人時，我了解了組織中的人才和投資能力，然後當我——真的，當我查看我們公司與其他公司之間的估值差距時，它只是沒有任何意義大部頭書。因此，來到這裡的決定實際上非常容易。正如我所說，能夠成為這個團隊和這家公司的一員對我來說真的是一種榮幸。

Now I've been here, I don't know, give or take, 80 days, the team reminded me. And I sort of jokingly, I referred to it sort of in my own Carlyle emerging course, I've just been spending time with our LPs, spending time with the teams, getting to know everyone and probably more importantly, giving them a chance to get to know me.

現在我已經來到這裡，我不知道，給予或接受，80 天，團隊提醒我。我開玩笑地說，我在自己的 Carlyle 新興課程中提到了它，我一直在花時間與我們的 LPs，與團隊共度時光，了解每個人，也許更重要的是，給他們一個機會了解我。

In terms of the white space, there's just a lot of opportunity for us. We have businesses like Global Credit, which has been growing very quickly. We'll continue to grow those. There's the private wealth space, real estate, one of the highest performing real estate teams. There's a lot of interest there.

就空白而言，我們有很多機會。我們有像 Global Credit 這樣的業務，它一直在快速增長。我們將繼續發展這些。有私人財富空間，房地產，表現最好的房地產團隊之一。那裡有很多興趣。

Our solutions business, when you go around the firm, there's a lot of energy to grow these businesses. Now it's early days for me, but I can tell you the enthusiasm and the energy is real.

我們的解決方案業務，當你走遍公司時，就會發現有很多能量可以發展這些業務。現在對我來說還早，但我可以告訴你熱情和活力是真實的。

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Katz of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Bill Katz。

So first of all, Harvey, congratulations, and welcome. So maybe just to build on your last set of responses to Glenn's question. Can you sort of tie together, maybe as you look at some of these bigger picture opportunities maybe the top 1 or 2 things you'll be most focused on as you look out over the next year or two.

所以首先，Harvey，祝賀和歡迎。所以也許只是為了建立你對格倫問題的最後一組回答。你能不能把它們聯繫起來，也許當你看到一些更大的前景機會時，也許是你在未來一兩年內最關注的一兩件事。

And then relative to your discussion of sort of disciplined growth, can you tie that into Curt's comments about FRE guide down on expenses and where that expense growth may focus?

然後相對於你對某種有紀律的增長的討論，你能否將其與 Curt 關於 FRE 的評論聯繫起來降低費用以及費用增長可能關注的地方？

So well, the disciplined growth, that's just always the way I've approached businesses that I've been part of, it's the way the team here approaches things. And so that, again, I would say, is more philosophically my approach, but it's also been the philosophy of the firm. I don't think it's -- how do I say it, I don't really have any favorite children. So I mean, I like growth for growth sake. And so we have a lot of resources here. And so if there's demand for our solutions business, we'll respond to that. If there's demand for growing the private wealth footprint, there's a lot of people in the world that want access to Carlyle and Carlyle's investing capability. Some things will take longer, some things will be more immediate. But I don't think it's a question of prioritizing 1 or 2 things. I think it's a question of, as a team, we mobilize against all these things, but we do it quite thoughtfully. We're not going to rush. I'm certainly not in a rush and it's really going to be about excellence of execution. And -- however long that takes, I think it's more about excellence of execution, but the opportunities are clear.

好吧，有紀律的增長，這一直是我處理我所參與的業務的方式，這是這裡的團隊處理事情的方式。因此，我要說的是，這在哲學上更像是我的方法，但這也是公司的哲學。我不認為這是——怎麼說呢，我真的沒有最喜歡的孩子。所以我的意思是，我喜歡為了增長而增長。所以我們這裡有很多資源。因此，如果對我們的解決方案業務有需求，我們會做出回應。如果需要擴大私人財富足跡，那麼世界上有很多人都希望獲得凱雷和凱雷的投資能力。有些事情會花更長的時間，有些事情會更直接。但我認為這不是優先考慮一兩件事的問題。我認為這是一個問題，作為一個團隊，我們動員起來反對所有這些事情，但我們做得很周到。我們不會著急。我當然不著急，這真的與卓越的執行力有關。而且——無論需要多長時間，我認為這更多的是關於卓越的執行力，但機會是顯而易見的。

Why don't I take the part -- the second part of Bill's question really on FRE and the revised guidance. Look, we've been focused on growing FRE. It remains a key priority and those white space opportunities that Harvey alluded to are going to propel us forward.

為什麼我不參加——比爾問題的第二部分實際上是關於 FRE 和修訂後的指南。看，我們一直專注於發展 FRE。它仍然是一個關鍵優先事項，哈維提到的那些空白機會將推動我們前進。

Now let's just kind of level set and remind everybody kind of where we've been. We grew FRE 40% in 2022. And over the past 5 years, it's up about fourfold. And I think we are in great position to continue to do that over the next several years. But this year is not one of those growth years, this year is going to be -- this growth trend is not even every year, and this year is a bit of a catch up and get things in the right place.

現在讓我們設置一個水平並提醒大家我們去過的地方。我們在 2022 年增長了 40%。在過去的 5 年裡，它增長了大約四倍。我認為我們有能力在未來幾年繼續這樣做。但今年不是那些增長的年份之一，今年將是——這種增長趨勢甚至不是每年都有，今年有點趕上了，把事情放在了正確的位置。

Now let me level set that a little bit for you. It's a complicated complex market environment, as Harvey said in his opening remarks. M&A volumes are about half of what they were just last year. IPO activity is sluggish. U.S. leveraged loans are much smaller, smaller than they have been in many, many years. And so all that activity level is depressed and it impacts our earnings, our ability to generate transaction fees, impacts performance revenues, the lower level that you see is going to impact realizations. And even at Fortitude, it affects kind of our fees, there are a variable rate. And so as Fortitude does well, we make more money, but mark-to-market types of adjustments impact some of those returns.

現在讓我為您稍微調整一下。正如哈維在開場白中所說，這是一個錯綜複雜的市場環境。併購交易量約為去年的一半。 IPO 活動低迷。美國的槓桿貸款比很多很多年都小得多。因此，所有活動水平都受到抑制，它會影響我們的收入、我們產生交易費用的能力、影響績效收入，你看到的較低水平將影響實現。即使在 Fortitude，它也會影響我們的費用，費率是可變的。因此，由於 Fortitude 表現良好，我們賺了更多錢，但按市值計價的調整類型會影響其中一些回報。

And so right now, it's at a lower level. And so that's also impacted our thinking with respect to the current year, but again, we're in great shape for the long term. We see lots of opportunities for long-term growth here and things that will be set up. And we're going to be very disciplined in terms of how we approach the balance of this year, and we're going to work really hard to outperform kind of where we are.

所以現在，它處於較低的水平。因此，這也影響了我們對本年度的看法，但從長遠來看，我們的狀況仍然很好。我們在這裡看到了很多長期增長的機會以及將要建立的東西。我們將在如何處理今年的平衡方面非常自律，我們將非常努力地工作以超越我們目前的表現。

Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Blostein of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexander Blostein。

So sticking with maybe some of the bigger picture kind of initiatives. As you look at areas of growth for Carlyle over the next couple of years. The firm has a really healthy balance sheet to your point, generating substantial amount of cash flow. How are you approaching the capital return framework for the firm, how are you thinking about inorganic opportunities within the context of sort of the white space that you've talked about?

因此，也許要堅持一些更宏大的計劃。當您審視未來幾年凱雷的增長領域時。就您的觀點而言，該公司擁有非常健康的資產負債表，產生了大量現金流。您如何處理公司的資本回報框架，您如何在您談到的空白領域的背景下考慮無機機會？

Yes. So the white space list that I went through -- obviously, that's not inclusive, right? I mean that's not in total, right? So you saw us announce the Fortitude transaction, there's a lot of room for that business to grow -- the capital markets business. And so our approach to all of this, as I said before, is going to be about patients and excellence of execution. You're right to point out the balance sheet strength. I think Curt and the team have done an extraordinary job of structuring the balance sheet. It was 1 of the things I diligence before I came to the firm, and there's a lot of cash flow generation.

是的。所以我查看的空白列表-- 顯然，這不是包容性的，對吧？我的意思是那不是全部，對吧？所以你看到我們宣布了 Fortitude 交易，該業務有很大的增長空間——資本市場業務。因此，正如我之前所說，我們對所有這一切的態度將是關於患者和卓越的執行力。你指出資產負債表的實力是對的。我認為 Curt 和團隊在構建資產負債表方面做得非常出色。這是我來公司之前努力做的事情之一，而且產生了大量的現金流。

And so I think that all these things, I think, in some respects, Alex, all these things kind of come down to math, right? So we have a cost of capital. We have very strong cash flow, and we have a very significant opportunity set. And so you're going to see us be quite disciplined about how we think about utilizing our capital, but we're going to invest in growth. And we're going to be very thoughtful about how we deploy that capital. We're always going to be thoughtful about it. I think in this market environment, you should expect us to be exceptionally disciplined.

所以我認為所有這些事情，我認為，在某些方面，亞歷克斯，所有這些事情都歸結為數學，對吧？所以我們有資本成本。我們擁有非常強勁的現金流，而且我們擁有非常重要的機會集。所以你會看到我們在考慮如何利用我們的資本方面非常自律，但我們將投資於增長。我們將非常仔細地考慮我們如何部署這筆資金。我們總是會對此深思熟慮。我認為在這種市場環境下，您應該期望我們非常自律。

Our next question comes from the line Brian Bedell of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Just your comment about the valuation gap that you see at Carlyle and the enormous opportunity to close that valuation gap. I realized there's a lot of things to invest in and a lot of white space, and that will create a sort of a longer-term pressure on expenses. But if you think longer term about the franchise, in closing that valuation gap, how do you think about potentially changing the compensation structure to align more with some of the peers that have a higher FRE margin? And then how do you think about whether that is one way to do that as opposed to just scaling various businesses?

只是你對你在凱雷看到的估值差距以及縮小估值差距的巨大機會的評論。我意識到有很多東西需要投資，還有很多空白，這將對支出產生一種長期壓力。但如果你從長遠考慮特許經營權，在縮小估值差距時，你如何考慮可能改變薪酬結構以與一些具有更高 FRE 利潤率的同行保持一致？然後你如何看待這是否是一種方法，而不是僅僅擴展各種業務？

Brian, Its Curt. Let me start and Harvey can add in. So look, our compensation structures, we use the combination, obviously, of cash carry, equity. And you got to be very careful when you move the cheese. And so we think very carefully about how all of this is set up and how we incentivize our people. The alignment that we have in place does a couple of things. First, it aligns with FRE growth, and we've had very good growth over the past 4 or 5 years in FRE. Second, it aligns with carry generation in performance for our LP investors. Very important that we drive LP performance. And the carry that we've thrown off $1.5 billion net realized carry in '21, $1 billion last year that provides a lot of capital as well for the balance sheet. So that alignment is important and keeping people kind of focused on the long-term trajectory of shareholder value, the equity awards, obviously kind of play into that.

布賴恩，它的生硬。讓我開始，Harvey 可以補充。所以看，我們的薪酬結構，我們顯然使用現金攜帶和股權的組合。移動奶酪時必須非常小心。因此，我們非常仔細地考慮所有這些是如何設置的，以及我們如何激勵我們的員工。我們已經建立的對齊方式可以做幾件事。首先，它與 FRE 的增長保持一致，過去 4 或 5 年我們在 FRE 方面取得了非常好的增長。其次，它與我們的 LP 投資者的業績產生一致。我們推動 LP 性能非常重要。我們在 21 年甩掉了 15 億美元的淨實現利差，去年 10 億美元，這也為資產負債表提供了大量資本。因此，這種一致性很重要，讓人們關注股東價值的長期軌跡，股權獎勵，顯然起到了一定的作用。

And so all of those things matter, but you're right. We continue to evaluate how it could be better and drive further things. And when we have something to announce in terms of a change, we'll be sure to make sure everybody is aware of that, but nothing to announce it today.

所以所有這些事情都很重要，但你是對的。我們將繼續評估它如何變得更好並推動進一步發展。當我們有關於更改的內容要宣佈時，我們一定會確保每個人都知道這一點，但今天沒有什麼可宣布的。

The only thing I would say is you mentioned the valuation gap -- when I look at the valuation gap, when I was doing my diligence, I didn't look at it and say, "Oh, we want to be this firm or that firm" I just knew that it screamed opportunity, because I know the power of the brand. And so what we're going to do is, I think, what you hope we'll do. We're going to listen quite carefully to our LPs. We're going to evaluate our strength internally. And we're going to marry those efforts together to make sure we deliver to LPs. We drive growth and we use our capital along the way.

我唯一要說的是你提到了估值差距——當我看到估值差距時，當我做盡職調查時，我沒有看著它說，“哦，我們想成為這家公司或那家公司堅定”我只知道它尖叫著機會，因為我知道品牌的力量。因此，我認為我們要做的就是您希望我們做的。我們將非常仔細地聆聽我們的 LP。我們將在內部評估我們的實力。我們將把這些努力結合在一起，以確保我們交付給有限合夥人。我們推動增長，並在此過程中使用我們的資本。

In terms of incentives, I think Curt captured it perfectly, we want our people to be incented. We have fantastic talent here, we want to attract the best talent. We want to retain the best talent. And so all these things are the way that we'll think through the compensation.

在激勵方面，我認為 Curt 完美地抓住了這一點，我們希望我們的員工受到激勵。我們這裡有出色的人才，我們想吸引最優秀的人才。我們想留住最優秀的人才。因此，所有這些都是我們考慮補償的方式。

And listen, we want to make sure people get paid for performance. That's how I'm thinking about it philosophically. Too early to comment on any specific changes, but I like Curt's language about the cheese. I don't think that was prepared remarks by the way. But we probably wouldn't have put that in the script, but I think he captured it well.

聽著，我們希望確保人們因表現而獲得報酬。這就是我在哲學上思考它的方式。評論任何具體變化還為時過早，但我喜歡 Curt 關於奶酪的語言。順便說一句，我不認為這是準備好的評論。但我們可能不會把它放在劇本中，但我認為他很好地捕捉到了它。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Mckenna of JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Brian Mckenna。

So it's great to see the Fortitude deal get announced a couple of deals ago -- a couple of days ago. But Curt, could you just remind us about the fee arrangement with Fortitude and then how that evolves over time with underlying performance of that business? And then related, how does the pipeline look for these larger deals looking out over the next 12- to 18 months? And does Fortitude have kind of incremental excess capital for some more deals moving forward? Or will they have to look to raise some additional capital?

所以很高興看到 Fortitude 交易在幾天前宣布了幾筆交易。但是 Curt，你能否提醒我們關於 Fortitude 的費用安排，以及隨著時間的推移，它是如何隨著該業務的基本績效而演變的？然後相關的是，在未來 12 到 18 個月內，管道如何尋找這些更大的交易？ Fortitude 是否有某種增量過剩資本來推進更多交易？或者他們將不得不尋求籌集一些額外的資金？

Brian, thanks for the question, and thanks for the comments on Fortitude. Look, we're really proud of what the team has achieved. If you look in our release, there's about $55 billion of AUM. There's about another $9 billion that they've directly invested into our funds, not captured in that number. And this $28 billion adds on top of all that. And they're still out there hunting and looking. There's a big pipeline, and it's a very well-capitalized business. And we had said before that with the raise that we did previously with our partners that we were well set up to be able to about double the AUM there. And clearly, we remain working on that.

Brian，感謝您提出問題，並感謝您對 Fortitude 的評論。看，我們為團隊取得的成就感到非常自豪。如果您查看我們的新聞稿，就會發現大約有 550 億美元的資產管理規模。還有大約 90 億美元是他們直接投資到我們的基金中的，沒有計入這個數字。而這 280 億美元是最重要的。他們還在外面打獵和尋找。有一條很大的管道，而且它是一個資本非常充足的企業。之前我們曾說過，通過我們之前與合作夥伴進行的加薪，我們已經做好了準備，能夠將那裡的 AUM 翻一番。顯然，我們仍在為此努力。

But keep in mind, these are complicated transactions. Fortitude has done a good job of thinking through this, and they've been able to do some things that are unique because of their skill set and how they're set up and their balance sheet. And these things aren't easy to get done, very proud of what they've been able to achieve. I think we can do more there.

但請記住，這些都是複雜的交易。 Fortitude 已經很好地思考了這一點，並且由於他們的技能組合、他們的設置方式和資產負債表，他們已經能夠做一些獨特的事情。而這些事情完成起來並不容易，為他們能夠取得的成就感到非常自豪。我認為我們可以在那裡做得更多。

And the fee arrangement, look, we're an investment adviser and so we fee really when they directly invest into our products, and we fee off of how we help them perform. And so that's a variable rate fee and as they perform well, generally over a kind of a trailing basis, we benefit.

費用安排，看，我們是投資顧問，所以當他們直接投資我們的產品時，我們會真正收取費用，我們會根據我們幫助他們的表現收取費用。因此，這是一種可變費率，而且由於它們表現良好，通常在某種尾隨基礎上，我們從中受益。

So we grow our fees as they grow in size and we grow our fees as they perform better, which we obviously contribute to. But look, markets are tough right now. And so some of that has also got this from a lower level, and we see kind of really upside potential from here in terms of fees off of that. But also keep in mind, this new $28 billion is not closed yet, so it will kind of contribute kind of later in the year when it's ultimately closed. Hopefully, that gives you some color, Brian.

因此，隨著規模的增長，我們會增加費用，隨著他們表現更好，我們也會增加費用，這顯然是我們做出的貢獻。但是，現在市場很艱難。因此，其中一些也從較低的水平獲得了這一點，我們從那裡的費用方面看到了真正的上升潛力。但也請記住，這個新的 280 億美元尚未關閉，因此它會在今年晚些時候最終關閉時做出貢獻。希望這能給你一些顏色，布賴恩。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Kotowski of Oppenheimer & Company.

您的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Company 的 Chris Kotowski。

Curt, in particular, I was wondering if you can give us some more color about the private equity fundraising environment. Obviously, we've been hearing about the denominator effect all year long last year. And one can only imagine that the post-Silicon Valley environment that, that didn't help things any? And -- but I also wonder if you can talk about it just a little bit on a geographic basis. We've heard about that denominator effect, particularly as it relates to U.S. buyout, but you've also got a very strong -- 2 big Asian and European funds that are kind of finishing up, I guess, their deployments, and they've got a strong track record and I guess, is there any particular strategy or insights you can give us as to how you hope to raise the successor funds there?

特別是 Curt，我想知道你是否可以給我們更多關於私募股權融資環境的色彩。顯然，我們去年一整年都在聽說分母效應。人們只能想像後矽谷環境對事情沒有任何幫助？而且 - 但我也想知道你是否可以在地理基礎上談談它。我們聽說過這種分母效應，特別是與美國收購有關，但你也有一個非常強大的——我猜，2 家大型亞洲和歐洲基金正在完成他們的部署，他們”我們有良好的業績記錄，我想，關於您希望如何在那裡籌集後續資金，您是否可以向我們提供任何特定的策略或見解？

Chris, good to hear your voice, and thank you for the question. So look, I am very proud of my partners in -- especially in the buyout space, in the private equity space, long, very successful track record, done a lot of great stuff over the years and fully eager to take advantage of opportunities as they are in the current environment. And so I think there's going to be some really neat deals done here in the near term.

克里斯，很高興聽到你的聲音，謝謝你提出這個問題。所以看，我為我的合作夥伴感到非常自豪 - 特別是在收購領域，在私募股權領域，長期非常成功的記錄，多年來做了很多偉大的事情並且完全渴望利用機會他們在當前的環境中。因此，我認為短期內這裡將完成一些非常巧妙的交易。

And I think that creates some just tremendous opportunities also in terms of encouragement from fundraising. But look, it's a tough fundraising environment, particularly in buyout funds. And so based on what we see today, we think in the aggregate across all of the different buyout funds, they're going to be somewhat smaller, some may be a little bit the same, so maybe -- but in the aggregate, the dollars are going to be lower than what the predecessors were. We still think this is a very good business for us. We can do a lot.

我認為這在籌款鼓勵方面也創造了一些巨大的機會。但是你看，這是一個艱難的籌款環境，尤其是在收購基金中。因此，根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們認為所有不同的收購基金的總體規模會更小一些，有些可能會有點相同，所以也許——但總的來說，美元將低於前任。我們仍然認為這對我們來說是一項非常好的業務。我們可以做很多。

What I'm really encouraged about is the underlying portfolio. And the portfolio has really done well, revenues are up across the PE space, about 12% over the last 12 months. EBITDA continues to grow, up just shy of 10%. Margins have held up strong, from a financing perspective, there's no major issues in the PE space. Over half of the debt across the portfolio was fixed or hedged and roughly 95% of the debt has maturities in 2025 or later.

我真正感到鼓舞的是基礎投資組合。投資組合確實做得很好，PE 領域的收入在過去 12 個月中增長了約 12%。 EBITDA 繼續增長，增幅接近 10%。利潤率一直保持強勁，從融資的角度來看，PE 領域沒有重大問題。整個投資組合中超過一半的債務是固定債務或對沖債務，大約 95% 的債務在 2025 年或更晚到期。

And that's all really important because it tees us up to really kind of generate the types of returns we've done in the past and makes me very encouraged about the $4 billion of net accrued carry on our balance sheet and how we turn that into cash in the coming years.

這一切都非常重要，因為它使我們能夠真正產生我們過去所做的回報類型，讓我對資產負債表上 40 億美元的淨應計收益以及我們如何將其轉化為現金感到非常鼓舞在未來幾年。

It will be a little slow this year, but we feel really good about that $4 billion. And look, giving capital back to our LPs, obviously, is helpful and is what our teams are very much focused on. Hopefully, that gives you some color, Chris.

今年會有點慢，但我們對這 40 億美元感到非常滿意。看，將資金返還給我們的有限合夥人，顯然是有幫助的，也是我們團隊非常關注的事情。希望這能給你一些顏色，克里斯。

Our next question comes from the line of Rufus Hone of BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Rufus Hone。

So wanted to come back to the insurance transaction with Lincoln. Can you speak to how competitive that deal was? And then can you help us with what the FRE contribution from this deal might be? And how quickly do you expect to be able to migrate the 20% of general account assets into Carlyle Group funds and hit the full FRE run rate contribution you expect there.

所以想回到與林肯的保險交易。你能談談這筆交易的競爭力嗎？然後你能幫助我們了解這筆交易的 FRE 貢獻是什麼嗎？您希望多快能夠將 20% 的普通賬戶資產轉移到 Carlyle Group 基金中，並達到您在那裡期望的全部 FRE 運行率貢獻。

Rufus, look, we're -- I'm a little sensitive on some of these components. We're also dealing with a public company as a seller. So I'm going to be a little careful in terms of how I answer this, but this sets us up real nicely for growth, particularly in 2024. I think the transaction very carefully negotiated. I think our team worked really closely with the seller. I don't want to speak too much in terms of how competitive, but we were uniquely positioned to be able to do the transaction and especially something of this size and complexity and really solving the needs of all parties. And so feel good about that.

Rufus，你看，我們——我對其中一些組件有點敏感。我們還與一家作為賣方的上市公司打交道。因此，我在回答這個問題時要謹慎一些，但這確實為我們的增長做好了準備，尤其是在 2024 年。我認為這筆交易經過了非常仔細的談判。我認為我們的團隊與賣家密切合作。我不想過多談論競爭力，但我們處於獨特的位置，能夠進行交易，尤其是這種規模和復雜性的交易，並真正解決各方的需求。所以感覺很好。

The amount that will directly come into our funds, some of it as quick as this year, assuming once we get -- obviously, we've got to get it closed first, but you can kind of think of that mostly over a 2- to 3-year period. But the one thing I will say is Fortitude has been pretty aggressive in terms of migrating stuff pretty quickly. Exclusive of this already at $9 billion committed or invested into Carlyle strategies and looking to do the same.

將直接進入我們的資金的金額，其中一些最快會在今年完成，假設我們一旦獲得 - 顯然，我們必須先關閉它，但你可以認為這主要超過 2-至 3 年期間。但我要說的一件事是 Fortitude 在快速遷移方面一直非常積極。不包括已經投入或投資於凱雷戰略的 90 億美元，並希望這樣做。

First and foremost, though, we're motivated through our fee arrangement to make sure that Fortitude does well and that we're a good adviser to them, regardless of whether that comes directly into Carlyle product or into other types of assets, we're seeking to help them perform really well.

不過，首先也是最重要的是，我們通過我們的費用安排來激勵我們確保 Fortitude 表現良好並且我們是他們的好顧問，無論這是否直接進入凱雷產品或其他類型的資產，我們'我們正在尋求幫助他們表現出色。

Our next question comes from the line of Kenneth Worthington of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯尼斯沃辛頓。

I wanted to sort of extend on insurance. We're seeing a much greater integration of insurance and alternative asset managers and there's some different approaches that your peers have taken to growing insurance. So you mentioned that there's opportunities to grow here. Where does insurance or the insurance opportunity fit in your priority stack for Carlyle growth? And do you think Carlyle has the credit breadth to sort of maximize this insurance opportunity? And for Carlyle, Fortitude seems to be the focus of the strategy here. Does that focus on 1 insurance company really makes sense or to get big, do you need to broaden out the presence?

我想擴大保險範圍。我們看到保險和另類資產管理公司的整合程度大大提高，您的同行已經採取了一些不同的方法來發展保險。所以你提到這裡有發展的機會。保險或保險機會在凱雷發展的優先考慮中處於什麼位置？你認為凱雷有足夠的信用來最大化這個保險機會嗎？而對於凱雷來說，Fortitude 似乎是這裡戰略的重點。專注於一家保險公司是否真的有意義或要變大，您是否需要擴大業務範圍？

Ken, I'll start and Harvey can add in. So first, we serve a number of insurance investors. Look, we're an investment adviser. We're not an insurance company. And so Fortitude, obviously, because of our history, our strategic investments with them and with our partners, that's why we tend to, in these calls, emphasize that but there's a number of insurance companies that our credit team is routinely working with for a number of products.

肯，我先開始，哈維可以補充。首先，我們為一些保險投資者提供服務。看，我們是投資顧問。我們不是保險公司。所以 Fortitude，顯然，由於我們的歷史，我們與他們和我們的合作夥伴的戰略投資，這就是為什麼我們傾向於在這些電話中強調這一點，但我們的信貸團隊經常與許多保險公司合作產品數量。

The growth in our credit business has been fantastic. We've doubled FRE there, doubled the AUM. Mark Jenkins and the team have just done a super job there and we're -- and they're very much focused on the insurance channel and taking advantage of it. And so doing a lot there. And so again, you want to be always thinking about how to grow the business and grow it in a disciplined, profitable way, and they're doing just that.

我們信貸業務的增長非常出色。我們在那裡將 FRE 翻了一番，將 AUM 翻了一番。馬克詹金斯和他的團隊剛剛在那裡做了出色的工作，我們 - 他們非常專注於保險渠道並利用它。所以在那裡做了很多。同樣，您需要始終考慮如何發展業務，並以一種有紀律、有利可圖的方式發展業務，而他們正在這樣做。

In terms of Fortitude itself, I think as it continues to scale, I think we'll also see more steadier flows of investments coming off of that. And I think that, that also will help Carlyle from a growth and planning and getting things coordinated. But I like where we are. I like it kind of the breadth and I like kind of the relationship we have with Fortitude.

就 Fortitude 本身而言，我認為隨著它的不斷擴大，我認為我們也會看到更多更穩定的投資流由此而來。我認為，這也將幫助凱雷成長、規劃和協調事情。但我喜歡我們所在的地方。我喜歡它的廣度，我喜歡我們與 Fortitude 之間的關係。

And again, Fortitude has a very deep pipeline of other opportunities, and it will pursue that and from a Carlyle perspective, we're here to support them. They're a separate company and there's other investors we work with. I don't know, Harvey, you have anything to add to that?

再一次，Fortitude 擁有非常豐富的其他機會渠道，它將追求這一點，從凱雷的角度來看，我們在這里為他們提供支持。他們是一家獨立的公司，我們還與其他投資者合作。我不知道，Harvey，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think Curt covered it very well. I would just say again, in my first 80 days or so of being here, it's clearly obvious, the strategic power of being an investor in Fortitude and its alignment with the firm and the growth of our credit business. And so again, it's very high on the priority list, but there are a lot of good opportunities. This is one of them.

不，我認為 Curt 講得很好。我想再說一遍，在我來到這裡的前 80 天左右，很明顯，成為 Fortitude 投資者的戰略力量及其與公司的一致性以及我們信貸業務的增長。同樣，它在優先級列表中非常靠前，但也有很多好機會。這是其中之一。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Beatty of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Adam Beatty。

Appreciate you're taking all these questions. I want to follow up on the valuation gap and appreciate all your thoughts so far this morning. But just from the angle of perception, I was wondering if there's anything that you've been hearing in your discussions with LPs or investors in the stock or even sell side of what have you. That's just a misperception where you're already starting to think, hey, this is something where we're actually not the way we're perceived and we just have to correct that.

感謝您回答所有這些問題。我想跟進估值差距，並感謝您今天早上到目前為止的所有想法。但僅僅從感知的角度來看，我想知道你在與 LP 或投資者討論股票時是否聽到了什麼，甚至是你所擁有的東西。這只是一種誤解，您已經開始思考，嘿，這實際上不是我們被感知的方式，我們只需要糾正它。

No. I don't think there's anything we have to correct. I guess I would say like this, when I talk to LPs, I've talked to LPs all around the world. I think it's just crystal clear. The brand is way more powerful in the valuation right now. And so that's why I say we just have to close that valuation gap. Brand is incredible. And so we just have to work with our teams. We have to execute. We have to grow this opportunity set that Curt and I have been talking about. But the brand is great. And it's disproportionate to the valuation and the valuation just needs to be as great as the brand.

不，我認為我們沒有什麼需要糾正的。我想我會這樣說，當我和 LPs 交談時，我已經和世界各地的 LPs 交談過。我認為這非常清楚。該品牌目前的估值更為強大。這就是為什麼我說我們必須縮小估值差距。品牌是不可思議的。所以我們只需要與我們的團隊合作。我們必須執行。我們必須擴大 Curt 和我一直在談論的機會集。但是這個品牌很棒。而且它與估值不成比例，估值只需要與品牌一樣高。

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Budish of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Budish。

You guys have talked a lot about the kind of big opportunities that you see going forward. And I think on the last call, I think, Curt, you mentioned that you see an opportunity for the company to grow FRE sort of well into the double digits over the medium term. I wanted to ask about how you see private equity sitting in there just given the sort of step down in expectations for the current vintage of funds, what are kind of your longer-term thoughts on how that business can grow from an AUM and FRE perspective?

你們已經談了很多關於你們看到的巨大機遇。我想在最後一次電話會議上，Curt，你提到你看到公司有機會在中期將 FRE 增長到兩位數。我想問一下，鑑於對當前基金年份的預期有所下降，您如何看待私募股權坐在那裡，從 AUM 和 FRE 的角度來看，您對該業務如何發展有何長期看法？

So Ben, look, good to hear your voice and hear the question. Look, our private equity business is a long, long track record, not every vintage is going to not necessarily be up. And keep in mind that our private equity business is fairly diverse. So look, you've got our real estate business, world-class business see that we can kind of clearly grow in there. We have an infrastructure and natural resources business that we're focused on in terms of helping it to grow and I think that there'll be other -- in our growth capital business has also done exceptionally well, some fantastic returns, and look, I think there'll be other products that will also be exploring and taking advantage of. And from a private wealth standpoint, while still infancy from a date in terms of where things are.

所以本，聽著，很高興聽到你的聲音和問題。看，我們的私募股權業務有著悠久的歷史，並不是每一個年份都不一定會成功。請記住，我們的私募股權業務相當多樣化。所以看，你有我們的房地產業務，世界級的業務看到我們可以在那裡明顯增長。我們有一個基礎設施和自然資源業務，我們專注於幫助它增長，我認為還有其他 - 在我們的增長資本業務中也做得非常好，一些驚人的回報，並且看，我認為還會有其他產品也將被探索和利用。從私人財富的角度來看，雖然從事物所在的日期來看仍處於起步階段。

A lot of the private wealth channel would love to have access to those product sets. And so that's something for us to explore more in the longer term, but it's out there. So I think that there's lots of ways that, that business can continue to grow. And look, we'll also be disciplined and smart in terms of making sure we have the right resources, set the right way with -- really with the asset base. And so very optimistic about it.

許多私人財富渠道都希望能夠訪問這些產品集。因此，從長遠來看，這是我們需要探索更多的東西，但它就在那裡。所以我認為有很多方法可以使業務繼續增長。看，在確保我們擁有正確的資源、設置正確的方式方面，我們也會有紀律和聰明——真正的資產基礎。對此非常樂觀。

Our next question comes from the line of Chuma Nwankwo of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Chuma Nwankwo。

I'm filling in for Michael Cyprys by the way he's just tied up in another call. Just wonder if I could touch back -- back to the Fortitude transaction. And talk a little bit about the opportunity you see there with the transition of the general account assets. I think in the past, you previously talked about a sort of mid-teens. I know you're talking about 20% here. So nice to see that, I guess, (inaudible) expectations. So I guess the question is, how should we think about that 20%? Would you be disappointed if you didn't do better than that?

我正在代替 Michael Cyprys，因為他剛剛忙於另一個電話。只是想知道我是否可以回頭——回到 Fortitude 交易。並談談您在一般賬戶資產的過渡中看到的機會。我想在過去，你之前談到過一種十幾歲的人。我知道你在這裡談論的是 20%。很高興看到，我想，（聽不清）期望。所以我想問題是，我們應該如何考慮這 20%？如果你沒有做得更好，你會失望嗎？

And also, going back to the question about white space, what products do you see those assets potentially transition into that you have today? And where could there be potential for more product developments to increase the scope for more of these insurance assets to be deployed?

而且，回到關於空白的問題，您認為這些資產有哪些產品可能會轉變為您今天擁有的產品？哪裡有可能進行更多產品開發以擴大更多此類保險資產的部署範圍？

So let me start on that. So on the 20%, I think you're assuming a degree of -- more degree of precision than what -- how we think about it. So it's roughly 20%. Obviously, we're looking to assist Fortitude in doing what's right for Fortitude. And if that can be more, then we'll collectively work together for it to be more. It should be a tad less that's also the right answer.

所以讓我開始吧。所以在 20% 上，我認為你假設的程度比我們的想法更精確。所以大約是20%。顯然，我們希望幫助 Fortitude 做對 Fortitude 有利的事情。如果這可以更多，那麼我們將共同努力讓它變得更多。應該少一點，這也是正確的答案。

So we're looking to work with Fortitude on that. The assets that can come in, look, I mean we're going to be -- again, what's the right way to approach that and think, as I previously said, I think we can start to transition some of that quickly and some of it will take a longer period of time, but it's about really kind of helping them from that perspective. And so that's really kind of -- and we've talked about the other products in terms of white space and from a long-term growth perspective, I'd just reiterate that we can see 2024 and following years really being a return to growth in FRE and continue to feel good about our $4 billion of net of carry and how that will generate and provide higher distributable earnings on a longer-term basis. So hopefully, that addresses your question.

所以我們希望在這方面與 Fortitude 合作。可以進來的資產，看，我的意思是我們將 - 再次，什麼是正確的方法來處理這個問題並認為，正如我之前所說，我認為我們可以開始快速過渡其中的一些和一些這將需要更長的時間，但這確實是從那個角度幫助他們。所以這真的有點——我們已經從空白和長期增長的角度討論了其他產品，我只是重申我們可以看到 2024 年和接下來的幾年真正恢復增長在 FRE 中，並繼續對我們 40 億美元的淨收益以及這將如何在長期基礎上產生和提供更高的可分配收益感到滿意。希望這能解決您的問題。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Daniel Harris for closing remarks. Sir?

我現在想把會議轉回丹尼爾·哈里斯的閉幕詞。先生？

Everyone, again, on behalf of the team here, Curt and Dan, and everyone just want to thank you for participating in the call. Again, for those of you I know, great to catch up again. And for those of you I haven't met yet, I look forward to catching up with you shortly. Again, thanks for your interest. Have a great day.

大家再次代表這裡的團隊，Curt 和 Dan，大家只想感謝你們參與電話會議。再一次，對於我認識的那些人，很高興再次趕上來。對於那些我還沒有見過面的人，我期待著很快與你們見面。再次感謝您的關注。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。