Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

So in that, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Carlisle's Group's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

因此，感謝您的耐心等待，並歡迎參加卡萊爾集團 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於僅聽模式。演講者演講結束後，將進行問答環節。

We ask that you please limit yourself to one question each year. I'll get back in the queue as time allows if you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star one on one. Again. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我們要求您每年只回答一個問題。如果時間允許，我會回到佇列中，如果您想將自己從佇列中刪除，只需一對一地按星號即可。再次。提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管丹尼爾哈里斯。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jonathan, and good morning and welcome to Carlisle's Third Quarter 2024 earnings call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz, and our Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Strategy, maybe John or debt.

謝謝喬納森，早上好，歡迎參加卡萊爾 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長哈維·施瓦茨 (Harvey Schwartz)，以及我們的財務長和企業策略主管，可能是約翰或債務人。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast and a replay will be available. We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.

今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和詳細的收益報告，可在我們的投資者關係網站上查看。該電話會議正在網路直播，並將提供重播。我們將在今天的電話會議中提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施不應孤立地考慮或取代根據公認會計原則制定的措施。

We have provided reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release. to the extent reasonably available. Any forward looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them.

我們在收益報告中提供了這些措施與公認會計準則的調節。在合理可用的範圍內。今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述並不保證未來的業績，不應過度依賴它們。

Statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10 K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated for all assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time in order to ensure participation by all is on that line today, please limit yourself to one question and return of the queue for any additional follow-ups.

聲明是基於目前管理層的預期，涉及固有風險和不確定性，包括我們10 K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中確定的風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與所示結果存在重大差異。

With that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給我們的執行長 Harvey Schwartz。

Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Over the past year-and-a-half, we undertook several strategic actions to drive better performance, including realigning our compensation model, appointing new leadership and prioritizing margin expansion among other initiatives.

謝謝丹，大家早安，謝謝您加入我們。在過去的一年半中，我們採取了多項策略行動來推動更好的業績，包括重新調整我們的薪酬模式、任命新的領導層以及優先考慮利潤擴張等舉措。

As we stand here today, you're beginning to see the early impacts of those steps. These actions, combined with a pickup in activity across the platform generated one of the best quarterly pro performances in the firm's history.

當我們今天站在這裡時，您已經開始看到這些步驟的早期影響。這些行動，加上整個平台活動的增加，創造了公司歷史上最好的季度專業表現之一。

We delivered record quarterly fee related earnings, up 36% versus 3rd quarter 2023 for and our best ever FRE margins at 47%, up more than 10 percentage points since last year. Overall, we are on track to hit our every target of $1.1 billion for the year.

我們實現了創紀錄的季度費用相關收益，較 2023 年第三季度增長了 36%，FRE 利潤率為 47%，創下歷史最高水平，自去年以來增長了 10 個百分點以上。總體而言，我們預計將實現今年 11 億美元的各項目標。

Our underlying investment portfolio is performing very well. This drove strong corporate private equity fund appreciation that fueled the nearly 30% increase in our net accrued performance revenues compared to the prior quarter. This accrual represents nearly $8 per share of future earnings for our shareholders.

我們的基礎投資組合表現非常好。這推動了企業私募股權基金的強勁升值，推動我們的應計績效淨收入較上一季成長近 30%。這筆應計費用相當於我們股東未來每股收益的近 8 美元。

As we talked about previously, Capital Markets was a significantly underleveraged part of our platform that is gaining substantial momentum. This is a direct result of proactive steps.

正如我們之前談到的，資本市場是我們平台中槓桿率明顯不足的部分，但目前正在獲得巨大的發展動力。這是積極採取措施的直接結果。

We've taken to increase alignment around transaction fee generation, including closed Q4 activity. We've already generated our highest level of annual transaction fees. This despite a still subdued M&A and IPO environment, obviously, we expect further growth and capital market fees on fundraising.

我們已採取措施加強圍繞交易費用產生的協調，包括已結束的第四季度活動。我們已經產生了最高水準的年度交易費。儘管併購和首次公開募股環境仍然低迷，但我們顯然預期融資將進一步成長，資本市場費用也將進一步提高。

We raised $9 billion of new capital in the quarter and have raised $43 billion over the past 12 months. We anticipate a very strong fourth quarter of capital raisings close out the year, and we continue to target about $40 billion of inflows for the year.

我們在本季籌集了 90 億美元的新資本，在過去 12 個月中籌集了 430 億美元。我們預計今年第四季的融資將非常強勁，我們繼續將今年的資金流入目標定為約 400 億美元。

Now switching to the macroenvironment, obviously, I let's start with the election results being passed. The election has removed market uncertainty first and foremost, markets like certainty. And you're seeing that broadly across capital markets, particularly in the stock market yesterday over the medium to long term, this should be a further catalyst for IPOs, M&A and key sectors.

現在轉向宏觀環境，顯然，我先從選舉結果開始。這次選舉首先消除了市場的不確定性，因為市場喜歡確定性。你會看到，從中長期來看，整個資本市場，尤其是昨天的股市，這應該會成為 IPO、併購和關鍵產業的進一步催化劑。

We invest in distribution environment in which we are well positioned to capitalize on monetization opportunities and put capital to work prior to election. We'd already seen the US Federal Reserve shifting stance on interest rates, and that was a clear sign that we'd entered a new era, monetary policy and an inflation. It stabilized, the election uncertainty and the change in monetary policy.

我們投資於分銷環境，在這種環境中，我們能夠充分利用貨幣化機會並在選舉前投入資金。我們已經看到聯準會在利率上的立場發生了轉變，這是一個明顯的跡象，表明我們已經進入了貨幣政策和通貨膨脹的新時代。它穩定了選舉的不確定性和貨幣政策的變化。

Our powerful combination supporting economic growth and our business. We're already seeing a significant uptick in IPO activity this year. There's been a 30% increase in listings and a 50% increase in IPO proceeds in the first nine months of this year.

我們的強大組合支持經濟成長和我們的業務。我們已經看到今年 IPO 活動大幅增加。今年前 9 個月，上市數量增加了 30%，IPO 募集資金增加了 50%。

We've seen this trend benefit our portfolio as well, which is significant and IPOs in just the last month, standard arrow in the US. And we've got to in Japan, standard Aramark, the second largest sponsor-backed U.S. IPO of the year and the best First Day performance for U.S. IPO, raising over $1million

我們看到這種趨勢也有利於我們的投資組合，這一點意義重大，就在上個月進行了首次公開募股，這是美國的標準箭頭。我們在日本，標準的愛瑪客，是今年第二大贊助商支持的美國首次公開募股，也是美國首次公開募股的最佳首日表現，籌集了超過 100 萬美元

This since 2021. Aerospace defense and government services is a key power alley for Carlyle. Our roots in DC and more than 30 year history in this space is a core differentiator for us. This was the largest aerospace IPO ever and demonstrates that the market is Star for high-quality businesses and growth outside of the tech sector.

這是自 2021 年以來的情況。我們紮根於華盛頓特區，在這一領域擁有 30 多年的歷史，這是我們的核心優勢。這是有史以​​來規模最大的航空航太首次公開募股，顯示該市場是高品質企業和科技業以外成長的明星市場。

I forgot to was the second biggest Japanese IPO this year and the largest ever sponsor-backed IPO in Japan. Japan remains a very attractive market for us. This has improved market sentiment has driven strong investment activity and a more active pipeline across our platform, reflecting our ability to act on opportunities in a dynamic environment.

我忘了這是日本今年第二大的 IPO，也是日本有史以來規模最大的贊助商支持的 IPO。日本對我們來說仍然是一個非常有吸引力的市場。這改善了市場情緒，推動了強勁的投資活動和我們平台上更活躍的管道，反映了我們在動態環境中抓住機會的能力。

A more liquid realization backdrop and strong underlying portfolio performance has supported higher investment returns. Our two largest U.S. buyout funds were up north of 7% each this quarter and our two largest Asia buyout funds were up 9% and 13%, respectively.

更具流動性的變現背景和強勁的基礎投資組合表現支持了更高的投資回報。我們兩個最大的美國收購基金本季均上漲了 7% 以上，我們兩個最大的亞洲收購基金分別上漲了 9% 和 13%。

This quarter represented the third largest quarterly increase in net accrued performance revenues in our firm's history. Over $600 million of net performance revenues were generated. Switching to Global Wealth, another area of strategic focus.

本季是我們公司史上第三大淨應計績效收入季度增幅。產生了超過 6 億美元的淨演出收入。轉向全球財富，這是另一個策略重點領域。

We're seeing strong momentum across the platform where we benefited from a record $1.8 billion of wealth inflows are 12 inflows this quarter were nearly three times the amount in the previous quarter, and our global wealth AUM is up 70% year over year.

我們看到整個平台勢頭強勁，我們受益於創紀錄的 18 億美元財富流入，本季有 12 筆流入，幾乎是上一季的三倍，我們的全球財富管理規模同比增長 70%。

Part of the momentum is our newly launched secondaries well solution, kept them what you're seeing very strong, early traction and advice with advisers and their clients. We're also making progress in our private equity wealth product are still on track to launch in 2025.

部分動力來自於我們新推出的二級油井解決方案，使他們保持了您所看到的非常強大的早期吸引力以及顧問及其客戶的建議。我們的私募股權財富產品也取得了進展，預計將於 2025 年推出。

Another area where we see accelerating growth in Asset Backed Finance. We continue to identify differentiated partnerships with specialty finance companies to further bolster our origination capabilities and give us a data edge in the market. We've also seen record leverage loan and CLO issuance in 2024.

我們看到資產支持金融加速成長的另一個領域。我們繼續與專業金融公司建立差異化的合作夥伴關係，以進一步增強我們的發起能力並讓我們在市場上獲得數據優勢。我們也看到 2024 年槓桿貸款和 CLO 發行量創歷史新高。

Loan spreads have tightened to post-GFC levels and demand for new paper is outpacing supply. Full year 2024 for US leveraged loan issuance is expected to exceed $1 trillion for only the third time at Carlyle, the team has been very busy with our leading CLO business, having price 22 transactions globally on track to be a record year of resets and transactions price.

貸款利差已收緊至全球金融危機後的水平，新紙的需求超過了供應。預計2024 年全年美國槓桿貸款發行額將超過1 兆美元，這在凱雷集團是第三次，該團隊一直非常忙於我們領先的CLO 業務，全球22 筆交易的價格有望創下重置和交易記錄的一年價格。

The opportunities. Our insurance business remain quite significant. Fortitude has grown its general account assets by almost 70% in the past year. It has increased its excess capital position to more than $1 billion, allowing us to pursue a robust reinsurance pipeline.

機會。我們的保險業務仍然相當重要。去年，Fortitude 的普通帳戶資產成長了近 70%。它將超額資本部位增加到超過 10 億美元，使我們能夠建立強大的再保險管道。

We also continue our relationships with insurance lines broadly and further leverage our private investment in grid and Asset Backed Finance capabilities in this important channel. To wrap things up in a strong third quartile with Carlyle extremely well positioned to capitalize on an improving macroeconomic environment.

我們也繼續與保險公司建立廣泛的關係，並在這一重要管道中進一步利用我們對電網的私人投資和資產支持融資能力。凱雷集團處於強勁的第三個四分位位置，能夠充分利用不斷改善的宏觀經濟環境。

Our leadership team remains laser-focused on driving performance and accelerating growth to drive long-term value for you, our shareholders.

我們的領導團隊仍然專注於提高業績和加速成長，為您（我們的股東）帶來長期價值。

For that, let me now turn the call over to John.

為此，現在讓我將電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Harvey. Good morning, everyone. We are very pleased with the progress we've made over the last year. The business is just performing much better than it was 12 months ago. And we are also benefiting from a material step-up in market activity.

謝謝，哈維。大家早安。我們對去年的進展感到非常滿意。該業務的表現比 12 個月前好得多。我們也受益於市場活動的實質加強。

The actions we've taken over the past year include Rivian FRE margins, activating the capital markets flywheel, improving investment performance, realigning our compensation strategy, appointed new leadership, and we continue to see benefits of the revised capital allocation strategy we implemented this year.

我們在過去一年採取的行動包括Rivian FRE 利潤率、激活資本市場飛輪、改善投資業績、重新調整我們的薪酬策略、任命新的領導層，我們繼續看到我們今年實施的修訂後的資本配置策略的好處。

These actions have generated significant operating leverage and momentum across our business, including record AUM of $447 billion, up 17% compared to last year. Record fee earning AUM of $314 billion, which has grown at a 15% kegger over the last five years.

這些行動為我們的業務帶來了巨大的營運槓桿和動力，包括創紀錄的 4,470 億美元的資產管理規模，比去年增長 17%。手續費收入管理規模達到創紀錄的 3,140 億美元，在過去五年中以 15% 的速度成長。

Record quarterly FRE of $278 million at a 47% FRE margin and strong performance in our corporate private equity funds, which drove a material shift to higher net accrued performance revenues to $2.8 billion. We produced $367 million in DE. for the quarter or $0.95 per share. And year to date, the eight per share of $2.74 is 15% higher than last year.

季度 FRE 創歷史新高，達 2.78 億美元，FRE 利潤率為 47%，而且我們的企業私募股權基金表現強勁，推動淨應計績效收入實現實質轉變，達到 28 億美元。我們在 DE 的產出為 3.67 億美元。本季或每股 0.95 美元。今年迄今，每股 8 美元為 2.74 美元，比去年上漲了 15%。

Now let's cover three important areas. Fee-related earnings appreciation in our corporate private equity business and capital returns to shareholders, starting with fee-related earnings or FRE, increased to $278 million in the quarter, up more than 35% from the third quarter of 2023.

現在讓我們介紹三個重要領域。我們的企業私募股權業務的費用相關收益增值和股東資本回報（從費用相關收益或 FRE 開始）在本季度增加至 2.78 億美元，較 2023 年第三季度增長超過 35%。

We are on track to hit our F 2024, of target 1.1billion which represent nearly 30% year over year growth pending fee earning AUM staff is it $21 billion, our highest level since the third quarter of 2021.

我們預計將實現 2024 年 F 目標 11 億美元，年成長近 30%，待收費員工的 AUM 達到 210 億美元，這是我們自 2021 年第三季以來的最高水準。

In the fourth quarter. We expect to activate these on our latest Japan buyout fun and in 2025 will activate fees on our new US opportunistic real estate fund. Year-to-date capital market fees were more than 80% higher than a year ago.

在第四季。我們預計將在我們最新的日本收購活動中啟動這些費用，並將在 2025 年啟動我們新的美國機會主義房地產基金的費用。今年迄今的資本市場費用比一年前高出 80% 以上。

We will see a significant increase in Q4 capital market fees as several large transactions have already closed. We expect to see further growth over time as our focus on expanding our capabilities in this area should support a higher level of capital markets activity.

由於幾筆大型交易已經結束，我們將看到第四季度資本市場費用大幅增加。我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們將看到進一步的成長，因為我們專注於擴大我們在這一領域的能力，這應該支持更高水準的資本市場活動。

Let's turn to fund appreciation. Srv noted our corporate private equity fund appreciation was up significantly. Driving this performance in the U.S. was strong EBITDA growth of 15% year over year and continued margin expansion across the portfolio.

讓我們轉向基金增值。 Srv 指出，我們的企業私募股權基金增值顯著上升。在美國取得這一業績的推動因素是 EBITDA 同比 15% 的強勁成長以及整個投資組合的利潤率持續擴張。

This positive underlying growth is driving significant value creation at the fund level in our portfolio is well positioned to further benefit from a better or exit environment. Net accrued performance revenues increased more than $600 million to $2.8 billion.

這種積極的潛在成長正在推動我們投資組合中基金層面的顯著價值創造，處於有利位置，可以進一步從更好的或退出環境中受益。應計績效淨收入增加超過 6 億美元，達到 28 億美元。

As we noted, this represents almost $8 of pretax earnings per share for shareholders. Finally, let me touch on capital allocation. We continue to balanced deployment of capital into our business and returning capital to our shareholders. We repurchased 150 million of shares in the third quarter, bringing total repurchases to almost 480 million year to date.

正如我們所指出的，這相當於股東每股稅前收益近 8 美元。最後，讓我談談資本配置。我們繼續平衡地將資本配置到我們的業務中，並向股東返還資本。我們在第三季回購了 1.5 億股股票，使年初至今的回購總量達到近 4.8 億股。

Total shares outstanding are down for the second consecutive year, and we have over $900 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization. It is our intent to continue repurchasing shares. However, our first priority is investing for growth.

已發行股票總數連續第二年下降，我們的股票回購授權剩餘超過 9 億美元。我們打算繼續回購股票。然而，我們的首要任務是投資促進成長。

Wrapping up, we continue to focus on delivering strong results for our shareholders. We are on track to achieve the financial targets that we laid out for 2024, and we have increasing conviction in the ability of our investment platform to drive higher earnings for shareholders over time.

總而言之，我們繼續專注於為股東提供強勁的業績。我們預計將實現 2024 年制定的財務目標，並且我們越來越相信我們的投資平台有能力隨著時間的推移為股東帶來更高的收益。

With that, let me turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。

Certainly. And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question of today's program, please press star one on your telephone. We ask once again that you please limit yourself to one question each. You may get back into queue as time allows. Our first question comes from the line of Alex Blostein from Goldman Sachs. Your question, please.

當然。提醒一下，女士們先生們，如果您對今天的節目有疑問，請按電話上的一號星星。我們再次請求您每人只回答一個問題。如果時間允許，您可以重新排隊。我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。請提出你的問題。

Hey, good morning, everybody, and we'll probably hold John Morning, Alex. So maybe maybe just to kick us off with a little bit of a macro question now from obviously related to the election. And I know you made a couple of comments in your opening remarks, but curious how you think the Trump administration could impact our activity in the old space, both on a macro sort of activity side, but also any regulatory items you're paying particular attention to and how that could impact, Carlo?

嘿，大家早安，我們可能會請約翰·莫寧，亞歷克斯。因此，也許只是想先向我們提出一些明顯與選舉相關的宏觀問題。我知道你在開場白中發表了一些評論，但很好奇你認為川普政府會如何影響我們在舊領域的活動，無論是在宏觀活動方面，還是在你支付的任何監管項目上關注以及這會產生什麼影響，卡洛？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Alex. I'll maybe take a step back for a minute because obviously the market had a unexpectedly strong reaction to the outcome.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。我可能會退後一步，因為顯然市場對結果做出了意想不到的強烈反應。

I think that has a lot to do some with expectations, obviously going in some way, David was on a TVSJ. David Rubenstein. Any made a comment you said dumb summing up the effect of those are the losers in this process where the posters and you said, you know, maybe we need to get a I involved in the polling process and I am not taking that quite seriously coming into this election.

我認為這與期望有很大關係，顯然在某種程度上，大衛在 TVSJ 上。大衛·魯賓斯坦。任何發表評論的人都說愚蠢地總結了這一過程中的失敗者的影響，海報和你說，也許我們需要讓我參與投票過程，但我並沒有認真對待這一點進入這次選舉。

There were concerning headlines about the fact that we might not have a result for days. If not we ex possibly months, it creates a lot of uncertainty in CEOs' minds and how they think about strategy, how they think about committing capital making decisions.

有一些令人擔憂的頭條新聞稱我們可能要好幾天才能得到結果。如果不是我們可能需要幾個月的時間，這會為執行長們的頭腦以及他們如何看待策略、如何考慮投入資本決策帶來許多不確定性。

And I think the elections certainty and having the outcome behind was a obviously a very significant risk. The factor for the market now from a policy perspective, from whether it's sustained or further cuts in the tax regime, whether it's a lighter regulatory touch, all these meetings will gets translated in CEOs' minds, boards, our portfolio companies in really confidence around the operating environment.

我認為選舉的確定性和結果顯然是一個非常重大的風險。現在從政策角度來看，市場的因素，無論是持續還是進一步削減稅收制度，無論是放鬆監管，所有這些會議都將在執行長、董事會和我們的投資組合公司的頭腦中得到真正的信心。操作環境。

And that will lead two more decision making and should lead to more M&A activity. You know, if you're not quite certain whether or not you think your transaction done from a strategic perspective, obviously, that gives you a lot of the pause as a Board. And so I think this is what the market is reacting to now in terms of our business, and we're already seeing lots of tailwinds in the business.

這將導致另外兩項決策，並應導致更多的併購活動。你知道，如果你不太確定你是否認為你的交易是從戰略角度完成的，那麼顯然，這會讓你作為董事會有很多猶豫。因此，我認為這就是市場現在對我們業務的反應，而且我們已經看到了許多業務中的順風車。

You see it in the numbers today. A big part of that as the strategic actions the management team has taken. A big part of that is the market environment. And when we saw the stability of the interest rates from planning out, I just think election certainty, future policies plus Fed policy normalizing, I think Fed policy normalizing and being passed the election. That's a pretty powerful one-two punch for markets and for our business, specifically at Carlyle it,

你可以從今天的數字中看到這一點。其中很大一部分是管理團隊採取的策略行動。其中很大一部分是市場環境。當我們從規劃中看到利率的穩定性時，我只是認為選舉的確定性、未來的政策加上聯準會政策正常化，我認為聯準會政策正常化並通過了選舉。對於市場和我們的業務，特別是在凱雷來說，這是一個非常強大的一擊兩拳，

Alex, the only thing I would add is I it a little bit echoing what harvest that I spoke a couple of our portfolio co-CEOs yesterday. And I would just echo that common theme was that they feel like the election certainty, the removal of the election uncertainty will elevate confidence levels. And that obviously is that's good for capital markets and that's good for M&A and all those things being better stronger. We think it's good for our business.

亞歷克斯，我唯一要補充的是，我有點呼應了我昨天與我們的幾位投資組合聯合執行長談到的收穫。我只想重複這個共同主題，即他們覺得選舉的確定性、選舉不確定性的消除將提高信心水平。顯然，這對資本市場和併購以及所有這些變得更好更強的事情都有好處。我們認為這對我們的業務有好處。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line Ken Worthington from JPMorgan. Your question, please.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。請提出你的問題。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to dig into performance you called out and are having some nice exits set at Arrow regard to and it seems like there's more to come at the same time, the net IRR. and CP. seven sort of remained at 8% despite the Joplin accrued carry.

嗨，早安。感謝您提出問題。我想深入研究你所說的表現，並在 Arrow 方面設置了一些不錯的退出，似乎同時還有更多的內容，即淨 IRR。和CP。儘管喬普林應計利差，但七種仍保持在 8%。

If you look at CP. five, the IRR fell to four, how should we think about the performance metrics developing a buyout if and as you get the exit, do you expect in this improving environment? And I think we the investment community see performance in buyout as a headwind. Do you see that changing or have a different view again, given the environment? And if so, is it big enough to change the fund raising trajectory?

如果你看CP的話。第五，內部報酬率下降到四，如果您退出，我們應該如何考慮開發收購的績效指標，您對這種不斷改善的環境有何期望？我認為我們投資界將收購的表現視為一種阻力。鑑於環境，您是否認為這種情況發生了變化或再次有不同的看法？如果是這樣，其規模是否足以改變融資軌跡？

Hey, Kevin, it's John. So look, we saw very strong improvement in performance within our corporate private equity business in an RV alluded to is particularly in the US and Asia. That performance fee accrual was was up nearly $600 million, $700 million in total corporate private equity dry, the vast majority of that to what are the best quarters we've ever had like the appreciation we're seeing in our US and Asia funds is very healthy.

嘿，凱文，我是約翰。所以看，我們看到我們的企業私募股權業務的業績有了非常強勁的改善，特別是在美國和亞洲。應計績效費增加了近 6 億美元，企業私募股權總額為 7 億美元，其中絕大多數是我們經歷過的最好的季度，例如我們在美國和亞洲基金中看到的升值非常健康。

What I like about it is a big driver that just operational improvements from. We're seeing good EBITDA growth, good revenue growth, good margin expansion, but I think it reflects where in a strong economy, um, and better exit markets only add to that improved performance.

我喜歡它的一個重要原因是營運改善。我們看到了良好的 EBITDA 成長、良好的收入成長、良好的利潤率擴張，但我認為這反映了在強勁的經濟中，嗯，更好的退出市場只會增加業績的改善。

And look, we've been very, very open on this topic in previous calls. We've been moving to performance in the private equity business. And I think when you look at the results this quarter, it's really the numbers are starting to reflect the focus we have on this business.

看，我們在之前的電話會議中對這個主題一直非常非常開放。我們一直在轉向私募股權業務的表現。我認為，當你查看本季的業績時，你會發現這些數字確實開始反映出我們對這項業務的關注。

We like the trajectory of this business and we know this is a business that over time we can grow. I think that the performance improvement in the US is particularly notable in CP. seven.

我們喜歡這項業務的發展軌跡，我們知道隨著時間的推移，我們可以發展這項業務。我認為CP在美國的表現提升尤其顯著。七。

You're not going to see the net IRR materially. Changes are just getting through the catch-up phase, but you did see 100 base this point pick-up in one quarter on the gross IRR, I would say on CP. 80, our most recent recent vintage, I would focus on the gross IRR as that fund is not fully deployed.

您不會看到實質的淨 IRR。變化剛剛度過追趕階段，但我想說的是，在 CP 上，您確實看到了總 IRR 在一個季度內上升了 100 個基點。 80，我們最近的年份，我將重點放在總 IRR，因為該基金尚未完全部署。

So the net IRR is a lot less relevant.

因此淨 IRR 的相關性要小得多。

Okay, great. Thank you. Thanks, Ken, and the Q.

好的，太好了。謝謝。謝謝肯和 Q。

And our next question comes from the line of Ben boost from Barclays. Your question, please.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben boost。請提出你的問題。

Good morning, and thanks for taking the question.

早上好，感謝您提出問題。

I wanted to ask about your outlook for 2025 a little bit in terms of what you expect in the credit side. I think on the private equity side, you kind of done with a lot of the major fundraises. And it sounds like you're expecting a big pickup in activity, same with the solutions.

我想問一下您對 2025 年信貸方面的預期。我認為在私募股權方面，你已經完成了很多重大融資。聽起來您預計活動會大幅增加，解決方案也是如此。

As I recall, you should be mostly done kind of fundraising there by the end of this year. So on the credit side, what sort of you expectation for fundraising activity? What else are you kind of thinking about in terms of how to build growth develop that platform? Thank you.

我記得，到今年年底，你們應該已經完成了大部分募款工作。那麼在信用方面，您對籌款活動有何期望？在如何促進成長和開發該平台方面，您還有什麼想法？謝謝。

So across credit insurance, the momentum is quite significant. And when I say that I'm really talking about across the strategic part, opportunistic credit, but all the way through the capital stack, as I mentioned in my previous margin around Asset Based Finance.

所以在信用保險方面，勢頭是相當可觀的。當我說我真正談論的是策略部分、機會主義信貸，但一直貫穿資本堆疊時，正如我在之前關於資產融資的保證金中提到的那樣。

So the private investment grade market just continues to grow, and we're very well positioned with that in part because of our partnership with fortitude and all the insurance and villages we have in that plus their excess capital position.

因此，私人投資等級市場持續成長，我們在這方面處於非常有利的位置，部分原因是我們與堅韌的合作夥伴關係以及我們在該領域擁有的所有保險和村莊，以及他們的過剩資本頭寸。

So I feel very optimistic about the credit markets. And we talked about the CLO activity spreads. It is at this rate spreads at these levels quite attractive. And so we expect activity to remain quite high.

所以我對信貸市場非常樂觀。我們討論了 CLO 活動價差。以這樣的速度，在這些水準上的利差相當有吸引力。因此，我們預計活動將保持相當高的水平。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

For the Q. And our next question comes from the line of Patrick Davitt from Autonomous Research. Your question, please.

對於問題。請提出你的問題。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I think I have two other positive from the Trump win for the Altar fairly obvious and you went through a lot of those. But curious if you guys have done any scenario testing of how the business and or in ground portfolio would fare through some of the more aggressive plan and we have like tariffs and or mass deportation where the outcome is a little bit much year for us.

我認為川普贏得祭壇的另外兩個正面因素相當明顯，而且你經歷了很多這樣的事情。但很好奇你們是否已經對業務和/或地面投資組合如何通過一些更激進的計劃進行了任何場景測試，我們有關稅和/或大規模驅逐出境，結果對我們來說有點多。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well on tariffs. Obviously, as a firm, we've worked some towers before in the firm's history.

關稅方面好。顯然，作為一家公司，我們在公司歷史上曾經建造過一些塔樓。

And so you can be assured of the portfolio company level and add, you know, in the C-suite, we risk manage around any number of scenarios, not just around things like that, but this is going to have to be a wait and see in terms how policy gets implemented, where we benefit from is the diversity of the franchise, both across industry groups and also obviously geographically am.

因此，您可以對投資組合公司的級別放心，並補充說，您知道，在最高管理層中，我們圍繞任何數量的場景進行風險管理，而不僅僅是圍繞類似的事情，但這將必須等待從政策如何實施的角度來看，我們受益的是特許經營的多樣性，無論是跨行業群體還是明顯的地理分佈。

But obviously, this is something that the all industries will focus on as we move forward. But there are no unique issues for Carlyle.

但顯然，這是我們前進過程中所有產業都會關注的事情。但凱雷並沒有什麼獨特的問題。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian McKenna from Citizens GMP. Your question, please. Thanks.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Citizens GMP 的 Brian McKenna。請提出你的問題。謝謝。

Good morning, all.

大家早安。

And so it's great to see the significant step-up and net accrued performance fees in the quarter, which could have clearly has positive implications on future earnings over time.

因此，很高興看到本季的顯著提升和淨應計績效費用，隨著時間的推移，這顯然會對未來收益產生積極影響。

But with the vast majority of this ultimately moving to cash on the balance sheet once realized, how should we think about deploying this excess capital over time? Specifically as it relates to organic growth, strategic M&A as well as buybacks

但一旦實現，其中絕大多數最終都會轉化為資產負債表上的現金，我們應該如何考慮隨著時間的推移部署這些過剩資本？具體來說，它與有機成長、策略併購以及回購有關

derive a It's John, thanks for the question.

得出 a 這是約翰，謝謝你的提問。

I mean, look, we think a capital allocation just more broadly where we can get the best return, um, and there are a couple of letters. I think we have is a firm. one of them is share buyback, which we've been very active on that front. On the other one is invested into businesses for organic growth.

我的意思是，看，我們認為資本配置更廣泛，我們可以獲得最好的回報，嗯，有幾個字母。我認為我們是一家公司。其中之一是股票回購，我們在這方面一直非常積極。另一方面是投資企業以實現有機成長。

We're very focused on organic growth. That is our first priority we talked about at all the time. And the other area is inorganic opportunities is another area where we can allocate capital. I would just say we look at a lot of stuff.

我們非常注重有機成長。這是我們一直在談論的首要任務。另一個領域是無機機會，是我們可以配置資本的另一個領域。我只想說我們看了很多東西。

Obviously, we had shown everything where we sit today, um, we think we can get the best returns for our shareholders, investing into our business for organic growth and continuing to do a share buyback. That said, if something came along inorganically that strategically made sense financially made sense, we would be open to we wouldn't hesitate.

顯然，我們已經展示了今天所處的一切，嗯，我們認為我們可以為股東獲得最好的回報，投資於我們的業務以實現有機增長並繼續進行股票回購。也就是說，如果出現了一些在策略上有意義、在財務上有意義的事情，我們會毫不猶豫地接受。

But where we sit today today, nothing eminent. We're very focused on organic growth and continuing to buy back shares. Remember, we've done nearly $500 million year to date. We have $900 million remaining on the share buyback authorization. And we're just really balancing our objectives of returning capital to shareholder and focusing on organ that growth.

但我們今天坐的地方，並沒有什麼突出的事情。我們非常注重有機成長並持續回購股票。請記住，今年迄今為止我們已經完成了近 5 億美元的投資。我們的股票回購授權還剩 9 億美元。我們只是在真正平衡向股東返還資本和專注於成長的目標。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI. Your question, please.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。請提出你的問題。

Hello. Thank you. I'd say I'm wondering, land, we all welcome.

你好。謝謝。我想說我想知道，土地，我們都歡迎。

Good morning. I think we'd all love to see the pickup in M&A and IPOs and better capital markets activity. And it is only the short-term downside, maybe is less or no. Last net asset growth is outflows are bigger than fund raising rents. You saw a little bit this quarter. So let's look at the 2% growth growth in management fees year on year.

早安.我認為我們都希望看到併購和首次公開募股的回升以及更好的資本市場活動。而且這只是短期的負面影響，可能會減少或沒有。最後淨資產增速是資金流出大於租金融資。本季您看到了一些。那我們來看看管理費年增2%。

I don't feel like it reflects what the real underlying growth is and what's going on in the momentum that you've highlighted secures, how we should think about is there a path to double digit management fee growth as you start to deploy that dry powder that you have?

我不認為它反映了真正的潛在增長是什麼，以及您強調的安全勢頭正在發生什麼，當您開始部署這種乾技術時，我們應該如何考慮是否有一條實現兩位數管理費增長的途徑你有粉嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes. Go ahead. John. Look, we had fee revenue growth of 7% in the quarter.

是的。前進。約翰.看，本季我們的費用收入成長了 7%。

A lot of this was driven by our capital markets capabilities. Look, this is this has been a focus area for the management team, and we're very pleased with the progress we've made on in terms of capital markets. And I think you need to take a step back and look at our Capital Markets. In the sense, it's a balance sheet light business.

這在很大程度上是由我們的資本市場能力所推動的。看，這一直是管理團隊的重點領域，我們對我們在資本市場的進展感到非常滿意。我認為你需要退一步看看我們的資本市場。從某種意義上說，這是一項資產負債表輕的業務。

We really are taking a balance sheet risk. And again, we're only focused on Carlyle relate capital markets activity. So I think it's a little different than others in the industry.

我們確實正在承擔資產負債表風險。再說一遍，我們只關注凱雷相關的資本市場活動。所以我認為它與業內其他人有點不同。

Just business has grown 80% this year will generate a record a record result this year. So we feel very good about our capital markets effort. And again, this has been a very deliberate focus area for the firm. In terms of management fees, we're seeing really strong management fee growth in solutions that's up nearly 45%. We're seeing good, good management fee growth in credit that grew nearly 11%.

今年的業務成長了80%，今年將創造創紀錄的業績。因此，我們對我們在資本市場的努力感到非常滿意。再說一次，這一直是該公司非常刻意的重點領域。就管理費而言，我們看到解決方案的管理費成長非常強勁，成長了近 45%。我們看到信貸管理費成長良好，成長了近 11%。

And look as expected, we're still seeing some headwinds in our private equity business in terms of management fee growth, more on the corporate private equity side, we're in the market raising a real estate fund, and we're very optimistic on that outcome. And we've said in the past funds, but in terms of corporate private equity, we've been very focused on the performance in this business.

正如預期的那樣，我們的私募股權業務在管理費成長方面仍然面臨一些阻力，更多的是在企業私募股權方面，我們正在市場上籌集房地產基金，我們非常樂觀關於這個結果。我們過去也說過基金，但是在企業私募方面，我們一直非常關注這個業務的表現。

We really like the trajectory of this business, and we're confident that we can grow this business over time.

我們真的很喜歡這項業務的發展軌跡，並且有信心隨著時間的推移我們可以發展這項業務。

I would just say, Glenn, I agree with your first statement sitting here being seen now for a bit over 1.5. The momentum in the franchise is really just starting to translate into the top line, whether it's in wealth, credit asset based finance, insurance strategy, credit solutions, any private equity. So the momentum feels quite good.

我只想說，格倫，我同意你坐在這裡的第一個聲明，現在人們看到的時間已經超過 1.5 了。特許經營的勢頭實際上才剛開始轉化為營收，無論是在財富、基於信貸資產的金融、保險策略、信貸解決方案或任何私募股權領域。所以感覺勢頭還是不錯的。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Mike Brown from Wells Fargo Securities. Your question, please.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的麥克布朗。請提出你的問題。

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. So it seems like at this point, Harvey year-and-a-half, flushing that out into the job, the foundation is kind of in place and established at Carlyle.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。因此，哈維在這一年半的時間裡，將這一點融入了工作中，凱雷的基礎似乎已經就位並建立起來。

As you think about the next few years. What is the right way to think about the annual fundraising potential? Is this kind of $40 billion level, one comment and deliver on an annual basis? And then also the FRE growth potential from here. I guess if you think about that kind of multi-year horizon can call out get to a point of delivering low double digit FRE growth annually.

當你思考未來幾年。思考年度募款潛力的正確方法是什麼？這是每年 400 億美元的水平嗎？還有來自這裡的 FRE 成長潛力。我想，如果你考慮一下這種多年期的視野，你會發現 FRE 每年都會達到低兩位數的成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So a year and a happy and I would say on first principles really was just making sure we had all the right people in the right seats with the right capital strategy, the right expense methodology and of course, the right leadership. And and I made a number of appointments, as you know, over that time time period.

所以，這一年是快樂的一年，我想說，首要原則就是確保我們讓所有合適的人坐在合適的位置上，擁有正確的資本策略、正確的費用方法，當然還有正確的領導力。如你所知，在那段時間裡我做了很多約會。

Now in terms of the future strategy, when you think about FRE growth, you really have to look at these areas that are emerging quite powerfully. So capital markets, which John just said, this, the quality of those revenues is exceptionally high because we're basically running a balance sheet, light riskless business, and we see runway there on the wealth channel, the Carlyle brand resonating around the world.

現在就未來策略而言，當你考慮FRE的成長時，你確實必須專注於這些正在蓬勃發展的領域。因此，資本市場，約翰剛才說，這些收入的品質非常高，因為我們基本上運行的是資產負債表、輕量無風險業務，我們看到財富管道上有跑道，凱雷品牌在世界範圍內引起共鳴。

I'm really hard to model that over the next several years. But we're at a point where we really only launched our second solution will launch our private equity solution last year, I'm sorry, next year, but the momentum when I talk to advisors and you see it in the numbers this quarter.

在接下來的幾年裡我真的很難對此進行建模。但我們現在確實只推出了第二個解決方案，我們將在去年推出私募股權解決方案，對不起，明年，但當我與顧問交談時，你會在本季度的數字中看到這一勢頭。

And so there's momentum across the firm in terms of fundraising, we put out this target this year of $40 billion. A new thing when it was you were unfortunately left you with a feeling that that's going to be like a lockstep mathematical divide by four, $10 billion every quarter. But I can tell you that again, it's early days still at 18 months, but the momentum feels pretty extraordinary.

因此，整個公司的融資勢頭強勁，我們今年的目標是 400 億美元。不幸的是，當一件新事物出現時，你會感覺這就像一個步調一致的數學除以四，每個季度 100 億美元。但我可以再次告訴你，現在還處於 18 個月的早期階段，但勢頭感覺相當非凡。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brian Bedell from Deutsche Bank. Your question, please, Greg.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。請提出你的問題，格雷格。

Good morning, folks. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just on Harvey, if I can go back to the tariffs topic on just some from a global trade perspective and deployment outside the US, how are you viewing that potential landscape?

早安，夥計們。感謝您提出我的問題。也許就哈維而言，如果我可以從全球貿易的角度回到美國以外的一些關稅主題，您如何看待這種潛在的前景？

Do you see any frictions and deployment are regionally in? Are you thinking? You know? Yes. I guess how are you thinking about deployment firm-wide between Europe and Japan? And any any any impact from the tariffs there?

您是否看到任何區域性的摩擦和部署？你在想嗎？你知道？是的。我想您如何考慮在歐洲和日本之間進行公司範圍內的部署？那裡的關稅有什麼影響嗎？

So again, on the tariffs, I think it's very difficult for any firm. Any business global or local client anticipate government policy. And I actually think it would be my opinion and advise mistake to be changing strategy. Now you can prepare for a number of scenarios and world-class management teams do that. In terms of our franchise, remember, we are global, but in many cases, very local.

再說一次，關於關稅，我認為這對任何公司來說都是非常困難的。任何全球或本地企業客戶都期待政府政策。事實上，我認為改變策略是我的觀點和建議的錯誤。現在，您可以為多種場景做好準備，世界一流的管理團隊可以做到這一點。就我們的特許經營權而言，請記住，我們是全球性的，但在許多情況下，我們非常本地化。

So if you look at our Asia business, where one of the few that have a leading Japan franchise, our Asia business spans Southeast Asia, India, China. And so we have the benefit of being global. We have a very regional capability, um, I think that's an advantage.

因此，如果你看看我們的亞洲業務，我們的亞洲業務是為數不多的擁有領先日本特許經營權的公司之一，我們的亞洲業務涵蓋東南亞、印度和中國。因此，我們擁有全球化的優勢。我們有很強的區域能力，嗯，我認為這是一個優勢。

I think that's an advantage in any environment. But again, am I think you can have you can game theory out various things. So you're more prepared, but I think expectations around tariffs, that's just something we're going to see.

我認為這在任何環境下都是一個優勢。但同樣，我認為你可以用博弈論來解決各種問題。所以你已經做好了更充分的準備，但我認為對關稅的期望正是我們將會看到的。

I think that where we can feel much more confident is around regulatory touch tax policy and all the things that will be really powerful mixers for the market and for exits and for investing opportunities. But they're only BT's elements of uncertainty on the on the periphery, but we'll see how they resolve over time.

我認為，我們可以感到更有信心的是監管接觸稅收政策以及所有對市場、退出和投資機會來說真正強大的混合器。但它們只是英國電信在外圍的不確定性因素，但我們將看到它們如何隨著時間的推移而解決。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brennan Hawken from UBS. Your question, please.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。請提出你的問題。

Good morning or good morning, John. Thanks for taking my question. So on interested to talk about fundraising point on, and I might be reading too much into this, but it seems like now you're talking about about 40 and the pace is, you know, in the sort of like upper mid 20s year to date.

早安還是早安，約翰。感謝您提出我的問題。因此，有興趣談論籌款問題，我可能對這一點讀得太多了，但看起來現在你正在談論 40 歲左右，而且節奏是，你知道，大約是 20 多歲日期。

So a little behind the pace of 40 on would be about 40 meant to meant as a softener around that number. And how should we be thinking about the fourth quarter? What are the drivers that will come through? And And also just to confirm, did you close the real estate 10 fund in the third quarter?

因此，稍微落後於 40 的速度大約是 40，這意味著作為該數字的軟化劑。我們該如何看待第四季？將會經歷哪些驅動因素？並且還要確認一下，您是否在第三季關閉了房地產 10 基金？

This side, as John, I'll start that and Harvey feel free to add lightweight. I'll echo a little bit what harvested fundraising. We feel very good about the momentum we have in fundraising it across the franchise. Um, you alluded to the number were $26 billion units date.

這邊，作為約翰，我將開始，哈維可以隨意添加輕量級。我會稍微回應一下募款的收穫。我們對整個系列的籌款動能感到非常滿意。嗯，您提到的數字是 260 億美元。

That's the second best year to date period we've ever had in our history. So I think we have a lot of momentum. We have pretty good visibility into the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter looks strong, so we'll get in and around 48 debt.

這是我們歷史上迄今為止第二好的一年。所以我認為我們有很大的動力。我們對第四季的前景非常清楚。第四季看起來很強勁，所以我們將獲得 48 左右的債務。

It's really hard to manage the business from a fundraising perspective to a specific number stuff. Stuff moves forward, stuff moves back, and I focus much more on it over over a longer period of time. I think we'll get close to the 40. Maybe we exceeded slightly.

從籌款角度到具體數字來管理業務確實很困難。事情向前發展，事情向後退，我會在更長的時間內更加關注它。我認為我們會接近 40。

Maybe we underachieved say that at. But in terms of how we think we'll manage the business, it doesn't really matter because we look at it over a multi-quarter period. And quite frankly, we focus a little bit more on just the momentum we have across the franchise, whether that's in our asset back business, whether it's inside solutions, whether it's in real estate and Harvey touch on this.

也許我們成績不高時才這麼說。但就我們如何管理業務而言，這並不重要，因為我們會在多個季度的時間內進行審查。坦白說，我們更專注於我們整個特許經營業務的勢頭，無論是在我們的資產支援業務中，無論是在內部解決方案中，還是在房地產中，哈維都談到了這一點。

We're seeing great momentum in the wealth channel, and we continue to think that will be a big component of fundraising going forward. So that I guess I'd answer it more in terms of we feel very good about the momentum we have going into the fourth quarter and next year.

我們看到財富管道的強勁勢頭，我們仍然認為這將成為未來籌款的重要組成部分。所以我想我會更多地回答這個問題，因為我們對進入第四季度和明年的勢頭感到非常好。

Yes, I guess we really weren't trying to signal anything with the about. I think that there's things we have 100% control or more control over like some how we're driving FRE. into the end of the year where we can give you more certainty.

是的，我想我們確實並沒有試圖用“about”來傳達任何信號。我認為有些事情我們可以 100% 或更多地控制，例如我們駕駛 FRE 的方式。到今年年底，我們可以給您更多的確定性。

If we have a handful of important clients to say, hey, we wanted to delays in decision making for the election or whatever reason we'd like you to extend some things we will work with our clients. And so we don't we don't manage fund raising for the purposes of hitting a number.

如果我們有一些重要客戶說，嘿，我們想推遲選舉決策，或者出於任何原因我們希望您延長一些我們將與客戶合作的事情。因此，我們不會為了達到目標而管理資金籌集。

We managed fund raising for the purpose of deployment, running the business and really for our clients needs. But that's why that's why you hear that. But if I gave you the impression that I gave year to 40 was a hard hard number, but maybe I should have said either side of 40 per ton.

我們管理資金籌集的目的是為了部署、經營業務並真正滿足客戶的需求。但這就是為什麼你會聽到這樣的說法。但如果我給你的印像是我給你的年份到 40 是一個很難的數字，但也許我應該說每噸 40 的任何一邊。

So anyway, but no, there's no there's no big signaling here. The other than the momentum feels great. Thanks, extra.

所以無論如何，但不，這裡沒有重大信號。除了動力之外，其他感覺都很棒。謝謝，額外的。

Thanks for that clarity.

感謝您的清晰說明。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Steven Chubak from Wolfe Research. Your question, please.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的史蒂文·查巴克（Steven Chubak）。請提出你的問題。

Good morning, Harvey, John, and thanks for taking my question. So I was hoping you could help frame the revenue opportunity in capital markets with deal activity poised to accelerate. You noted you're seeing momentum across the franchise.

早安，哈維、約翰，感謝您提出我的問題。因此，我希望您能夠透過準備加速的交易活動來幫助確定資本市場的收入機會。您指出您看到了整個系列的動力。

Just trying to gauge how you think about an achievable run rate for this business and whether you're adequately resourced Easter in relation to the opportunity that you envisage.

只是想衡量一下您如何看待該業務可實現的運作率，以及您在復活節是否有足夠的資源來應對您設想的機會。

So in terms of resourcing, yes, we feel completely well resource from the changes we made last year. For I got here were very specific around prioritization, focus, alignment, incentives, and that's why you're seeing the results you're seeing again with Q4.

因此，就資源而言，是的，我們從去年所做的改變中感覺資源非常充足。因為我在這裡對優先事項、重點、一致性、激勵措施非常具體，這就是為什麼你會在第四季度再次看到結果。

Activity is already a record for the firm. And this is really again. So I think it would be quiet environment given what we may see. I think the strategic tipping point is at what point does this if it becomes more of a balance sheet intensive business for us, but we had a lot of runway before we get there.

該公司的活動已經創紀錄。這真的又來了。所以我認為考慮到我們可能看到的情況，這將是一個安靜的環境。我認為策略轉折點是，如果它對我們來說更像是一項資產負債表密集型業務，那麼什麼時候會做到這一點，但在到達那裡之前我們有很多跑道。

And so some deal activity will drive more activity. You have run rate's a little difficult because it's like saying, Hey, can you forecast economic activity next year. But I can tell you all the pieces of the engine are in the proper placement.

因此，一些交易活動將推動更多的活動。你的運作率有點困難，因為這就像說，嘿，你能預測明年的經濟活動嗎？但我可以告訴你引擎的所有部件都處於正確的位置。

Yes, David, I would just echo what are you said we're going to have a record year across the platform in terms of capital markets revenue.

是的，大衛，我只是同意你所說的，就資本市場收入而言，我們將在整個平台上創下創紀錄的一年。

And I would just repeat, this was in a relatively quiet market and as markets continue to improve, we are very comfortable that we think that number should continue to accelerate.

我想重複一遍，這是一個相對安靜的市場，隨著市場的不斷改善，我們認為這個數字應該繼續加速，我們對此感到非常滿意。

Helpful color. Thanks for taking my questions.

有用的顏色。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Bill Katz from TV channel and your question, please. Okay.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自電視頻道的 Bill Katz，請問您的問題。好的。

Thank you very much and good morning, everybody. Just maybe a slightly different tact on FRE. You've done a very good job of enhancing the FRE margin, as you mentioned, year on year. And then you look at the segments is up very strongly with the algorithm for next year.

非常感謝大家，早安。只是 FRE 的策略可能略有不同。正如您所提到的，您在逐年提高 FRE 利潤方面做得非常好。然後你會看到這些細分市場在明年的演算法中成長非常強勁。

As we look ahead, how much more incremental margin can you shoot for? And then just one of a secondary question, just given the interplay between where you're growing assets, where you're realizing assets, how do we think about the interplay between fee-paying AUM growth versus the base management fee rate?

展望未來，您還能爭取多少增量利潤？然後是第二個問題之一，考慮到資產成長地點和資產變現地點之間的相互作用，我們如何考慮付費資產管理規模成長與基本管理費率之間的相互作用？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So we're I'm going to have to have John company to some of those details. But before he does, I don't want to just I want to take a victory lap for John and the whole management team because in a period of several months last year, they completely.

所以我們需要約翰的陪伴來處理其中一些細節。但在他這樣做之前，我不想只是想為約翰和整個管理團隊贏得勝利，因為在去年的幾個月裡，他們完全做到了。

We structured the compensation methodology, introduced it introduced expense-saving initiatives. I think David accomplish, they've accomplished an incredible amount in a very short period of time and really set the foundation for how to run the from personally, I think there's more upside.

我們建構了薪酬方法，引入了節省費用的措施。我認為大衛完成了，他們在很短的時間內取得了令人難以置信的成就，並為個人如何管理奠定了基礎，我認為還有更多的好處。

But on some of the details, I'll turn it over to John, but he won't you won't find themselves on the back so or his team put up, but I'll do that form come down

但在一些細節上，我會把它交給約翰，但他不會，你不會發現自己在後面，所以或他的團隊提出了，但我會把那個表格下來

Bill, it like we feel very good about FRE would hit a record year. As I said in my remarks, we're clearly on track to hit $1.1 billion for the year with good visibility on the fourth quarter were very pleased with where the margin is at 47%. Again, let's put this in perspective. This is a 1,000 basis points higher than it was last year, probably 2000 basis points higher than it was five years ago.

比爾，我們對 FRE 今年將創下紀錄感到非常滿意。正如我在發言中所說，我們今年顯然有望達到 11 億美元，第四季度的前景良好，我們對 47% 的利潤率感到非常滿意。再次，讓我們正確看待這一點。這比去年高出 1,000 個基點，可能比五年前高出 2,000 個基點。

So we've made tremendous progress. But look, the way the management team thinks about this business is we are much more focused on growth. And I would like to see the FRE margin grow via organic growth versus more efficiencies. I think I think there's no we'll get a little bit from running the business efficiently and will continue to run the business efficiently. But I think you could expect to see that margin improve as we grow over time.

所以我們已經取得了巨大的進步。但看，管理團隊看待這項業務的方式是我們更專注於成長。我希望看到 FRE 利潤率透過有機成長而不是提高效率來成長。我認為我們不會從高效運營業務中獲得一點好處，並將繼續高效地經營業務。但我認為，隨著我們隨著時間的推移而不斷發展，利潤率會有所提高。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Michael Cypress from Morgan Stanley. Your question, please.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾賽普拉斯。請提出你的問題。

Hey, good morning and thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to ask about Asset Based Finance, meaningful growth opportunity for Carlyle. So hoping you could just update us on where that stands today, just in terms of AUM, how that part of the business has been growing and maybe talk about some of the steps you might take in to 25 to accelerate growth of that platform and to what extent might you take space and platform capabilities here to best capture the opportunity set?

嘿，早上好，感謝您提出問題。只是想詢問資產基礎融資，這對凱雷來說是有意義的成長機會。因此，希望您能向我們介紹一下目前的最新情況，就資產管理規模而言，這部分業務的增長情況，也許可以談談您可能在 25 中採取的一些步驟，以加速該平台的增長，並您可以在多大程度上利用這裡的空間和平台能力來最好地抓住機會集？

Thank you.

謝謝。

John, look, I think it's a it's an enormous opportunity for the industry and for Carlyle, um, I do think it will be a large driver of credit growth for us going forward . But I'd say, look, it's very early days in the IVF space. Again, I think this market is enormous is multiples of direct lending. We obviously announced the discovery transaction a couple of months ago is a very high-profile transaction for us.

約翰，聽著，我認為這對整個產業和凱雷來說都是一個巨大的機會，嗯，我確實認為這將成為我們未來信貸成長的一大推動力。但我想說，現在體外受精領域還處於早期階段。再說一次，我認為這個市場是巨大的，是直接貸款的倍數。顯然，我們幾個月前宣布的發現交易對我們來說是一項非常引人注目的交易。

That transaction is largely closed post post the third quarter. So we're very pleased with that is a business we started from scratch organically a couple of years ago. We already have roughly $7 billion of AUM. The pipeline continues to be one of the stronger pipelines we see across the platform.

該交易在第三季後基本完成。因此，我們對幾年前從頭開始的業務感到非常滿意。我們已經擁有約 70 億美元的資產管理規模。該管道仍然是我們在整個平台上看到的最強大的管道之一。

And look, it's a mix of one-off portfolio purchases and flow arrangements. We have in place a handful of flow arrangements. I would expect that to continue to increase over time. But I think it'll be a mix of kind of portfolio purchases and flow arrangements. Couple of the flow arrangements.

看，這是一次性投資組合購買和流量安排的結合。我們已經制定了一些流程安排。我預計這一數字會隨著時間的推移而繼續增加。但我認為這將是投資組合購買和流量安排的結合。幾個流程安排。

So we have that you've heard us talk about in the past our Monogram Triad units and covering multiple different assets. And we have others. And you should expect us going forward to have more more flow arrangements are more flow partnerships as the business continues to evolve.

因此，您過去曾聽我們談論過我們的 Monogram Triad 單元並涵蓋多種不同的資產。我們還有其他人。隨著業務的不斷發展，您應該期望我們能夠擁有更多的流程安排和更多的流程合作夥伴關係。

But we really like this business. We're really pleased with where the businesses and we think this business has a lot of potential. Great. Thanks, Mike.

但我們真的很喜歡這個行業。我們對這些業務非常滿意，我們認為這項業務有很大的潛力。偉大的。謝謝，麥克。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line Craig Siegenthaler from Bank of America. Your question, please.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。請提出你的問題。

Hey, good morning, everyone. I hope you're all doing well. Greg on Good to hear from you. Stock-based comp is now run rating between one 20 and one 30 after the grants earlier this year. And I believe you comment on prior calls that there should be a step down next year in 2025.

嘿，大家早安。我希望你們一切都好。格雷格 很高興收到你的來信。在今年早些時候的撥款之後，基於股票的比較現在的評級在 20 到 30 之間。我相信您對之前關於明年 2025 年應該降息的呼籲發表了評論。

However, I also believe the mechanics of the issuance is related to the price of the stock, which is higher today. So I just wanted your perspective on how we should be forecasting stock based comp next year relative to where it came in this past quarter.

然而，我也相信發行機制與股票價格有關，目前股票價格較高。因此，我只是想了解您對我們應該如何預測明年基於股票的比較（相對於上個季度的情況）的看法。

Hey, Craig, it's John. Good to hear from you. And I've said this on previous calls, a little bit of this is around the specific accounting treatment for the performance stock units. As you recall, from an accounting perspective, we are expensing them heavily upfront versus when when they actually vest.

嘿，克雷格，我是約翰。很高興收到你的來信。我在之前的電話會議上已經說過，其中一點是圍繞著績效股票單位的具體會計處理。正如您所記得的那樣，從會計角度來看，與實際歸屬時相比，我們預先將其大量支出。

And you've seen our stock based comp up at elevated levels the last few quarters. It's elevated today in the third quarter. It will continue to be at the third quarter level in the fourth quarter. But in 2025, we do expect to see that that stock-based comp number trend down to more normalized level.

您已經看到我們的股票薪酬在過去幾季中處於較高水平。今天第三季有所上升。第四季將繼續保持第三季的水平。但到 2025 年，我們確實預期會看到基於股票的公司數量趨勢下降到更正常化的水平。

Again, this is the accounting phenomenon of the grants that we gave. one of the things that we strategically did obviously is in announcing the share buyback in advance of those awards, which are much higher stock levels. We've already bought back a significant portion of anything associated with that solution.

這又是我們所提供贈款的會計現象。我們策略上做的事情之一顯然是在這些獎勵之前宣布股票回購，這些獎勵的股票水平要高得多。我們已經回購了與該解決方案相關的大部分產品。

So that's why you're seeing these dilution numbers look so attractive. Certainly relative to the all the years prior to John and I am doing this is the first two years solution hasn't been a negative, adding Greg glass to he last two years, the share count actually Down Down 1% this year. And look, we're very focused on repurchasing shares.

這就是為什麼你會看到這些稀釋數字看起來如此有吸引力。當然，相對於約翰和我之前的所有年份，前兩年的解決方案並沒有帶來負面影響，在過去兩年中添加了格雷格·格拉斯，今年的股份數量實際上下降了 1%。看，我們非常專注於回購股票。

Thank you. And this does conclude the question and answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Daniel Harris for any further remarks.

謝謝。今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將程序交還給丹尼爾·哈里斯以供進一步評論。

Thank you all very much for your time and attention today. You have any follow-up questions, feel free to reach out to Investor Relations after the call. We look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

非常感謝大家今天的時間和關注。您有任何後續問題，請隨時在電話會議後聯繫投資者關係部門。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。