Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Carlyle Group first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加凱雷集團 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係主管丹尼爾哈里斯 (Daniel Harris)。請繼續。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; and our Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Strategy, John Redett. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast and a replay will be available.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。早安，歡迎參加凱雷 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長 Harvey Schwartz，以及我們的財務長兼企業策略主管 John Redett。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和一份詳細的收益報告，可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。本次通話正在進行網路直播，並提供重播。

We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from, or as a substitute for, measures prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. We have provided a reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available.

我們將在今天的電話會議中參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施不應孤立地看待，或取代根據公認會計原則制定的措施。我們在收益報告中盡可能合理地提供了這些指標與 GAAP 的對帳。

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements are based on current management expectations and involve uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time.

今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述均不能保證未來的表現，因此不應過度依賴它們。這些聲明是基於目前管理階層的預期，涉及不確定性，包括我們 10-K 表格年度報告中「風險因素」部分所確定的不確定性，這些不確定性可能導致實際結果與所示結果有重大差異。凱雷不承擔隨時更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

In order to ensure participation by all those on the line, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for any additional follow-ups.

為了確保所有線上人員的參與，請將自己的問題限制為一個，然後返回隊列以獲取任何其他後續資訊。

And with that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

現在，請允許我將電話轉給我們的執行長哈維·施瓦茨 (Harvey Schwartz)。

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'll quickly touch on this quarter's record results and then share my perspective on the macro environment.

謝謝，丹。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。我將快速介紹本季的創紀錄業績，然後分享我對宏觀環境的看法。

First quarter performance was quite strong, hitting record levels. Quarter's highlights include record fee-relating earnings of $311 million, that's up 17% year-over-year; record FRE margin, 48%, our highest level of distributable earnings in several years at $455 million and record assets under management of $453 billion.

第一季的表現相當強勁，創下了歷史新高。本季的亮點包括創紀錄的 3.11 億美元費用相關收益，比去年同期增長 17%；創紀錄的 FRE 利潤率 48%，可分配收益達到數年來的最高水平 4.55 億美元，管理資產達到創紀錄的 4530 億美元。

Across the board, from margin expansion to FRE growth to investment performance and fundraising, you can really see the strategy coming together as we progress towards our goals for this year and beyond. Now let me shift and talk about how we're thinking about the current environment.

從利潤率擴張到 FRE 成長，再到投資績效和融資，您可以看到，隨著我們朝著今年及以後的目標邁進，各項策略正在逐步形成。現在讓我換個話題，談談我們如何看待當前的環境。

We entered the year with a very high level of market optimism and very high expectations. The markets were fully risk on. Of course, as we saw, the recently announced trade policies very quickly impacted investor sentiment and risk appetite.

我們懷著非常高的市場樂觀度和期望值進入了新的一年。市場完全處於風險之中。當然，正如我們所看到的，最近宣布的貿易政策很快就影響了投資者情緒和風險偏好。

With respect to our global portfolio, we think about this in terms of first order effects and knock-on impacts. With respect to first order effects, the effects of the tariffs are contained to a limited number of investments. The majority of our global private equity portfolio is services-oriented with 80% of companies based in the US. Second order effects on the economy are beginning to emerge as we've seen in some of the recent economic data but given where we are in terms of the policy implementation, the long-term effects of the trade policy are too difficult to forecast at this point.

就我們的全球投資組合而言，我們從一級效應和連鎖影響的角度來考慮這個問題。就一級效應而言，關稅的影響僅限於有限數量的投資。我們的全球私募股權投資組合大部分為服務型，其中 80% 的公司位於美國。正如我們在最近的一些經濟數據中看到的那樣，對經濟的二階效應開始顯現，但考慮到我們在政策實施方面的現狀，貿易政策的長期影響目前很難預測。

From a Carlyle perspective, we are exceptionally well positioned to lead in this environment. Our investment horizon and our capital base are long term, and our capital-light model affords us the ability to capitalize on compelling new investment opportunities.

從凱雷的角度來看，我們處於非常有利的地位來引領這個環境。我們的投資期間和資本基礎是長期的，我們的輕資本模式使我們能夠利用引人注目的新投資機會。

In a dynamic environment like today, you need experience, scale, brand and a diversified platform to meet the shifting demands of private capital and serve the needs of our clients. With $84 billion of dry powder, we are well positioned to be active in this market environment as opportunities emerge.

在當今充滿活力的環境中，您需要經驗、規模、品牌和多元化的平台來滿足私人資本不斷變化的需求並滿足我們客戶的需求。憑藉 840 億美元的現金儲備，我們已做好準備，在機會出現時積極參與這個市場環境。

Although we are going through this period of uncertainty, the macro trends driving demand for private capital remains strong and likely will be reinforced over the coming years. Over the past two decades, the number of public companies in the US has been cut nearly in half, while the number of private companies has increased by more than fivefold.

儘管我們正經歷這段不確定的時期，但推動私人資本需求的宏觀趨勢仍然強勁，並且在未來幾年可能會得到加強。過去二十年，美國上市公司的數量減少了近一半，而私人公司的數量卻增加了五倍多。

For investors looking to drive returns and capture the next generation of market growth, private market access has never been more important. These structural shifts are already showing up in Carlyle's results. We are seeing strong momentum across our key growth areas and believe the trends reshaping global markets will continue to play to our strengths.

對於尋求提高回報並抓住下一代市場成長機會的投資者來說，私人市場准入從未如此重要。這些結構性轉變已經體現在凱雷的業績上。我們看到我們的主要成長領域都呈現出強勁勢頭，並相信重塑全球市場的趨勢將繼續發揮我們的優勢。

Now I'll touch on our businesses and growth areas that we've been focused on over the past two years. Carlyle AlpInvest generated record FRE in the first quarter, nearly double the first quarter last year. AUM in this business grew 12% over the past year to a record $89 billion. The business continues to diversify across client solutions. A good example of this is our latest portfolio finance fund, which held its final close last month at more than $4 billion, more than 3 times the size of its predecessor.

現在我將談談我們過去兩年來一直關注的業務和成長領域。Carlyle AlpInvest 在第一季創造了創紀錄的 FRE，幾乎是去年第一季的兩倍。過去一年，該業務的資產管理規模成長了 12%，達到創紀錄的 890 億美元。業務持續向客戶解決方案多元化發展。我們最新的投資組合金融基金就是一個很好的例子，該基金上個月最終收盤價超過 40 億美元，是其前身規模的 3 倍以上。

In Global Credit, quarterly fee-related earnings surpassed $100 million for the first time, an increase of nearly 50% from last year. The significant demand for private credit solutions continues to drive inflows and our investment opportunities continue to expand. Recently, our private credit team is linked to significant opportunities in European lending where less competition is leading to strong relative value. Evergreen private credit deployment is up 150% year-over-year.

全球信貸部門季度費用相關收益首度超過 1 億美元，較去年同期成長近 50%。對私人信貸解決方案的巨大需求繼續推動資金流入，我們的投資機會不斷擴大。最近，我們的私人信貸團隊接觸到了歐洲貸款領域的重大機遇，這些領域的競爭較少，因此相對價值較高。常青私人信貸部署較去年同期成長150%。

We also had a strong start to the year in insurance with Fortitude announcing more than $8 billion in reinsurance transactions. Fortitude's annuity reinsurance agreement with Taiyo Life Insurance Company was their sixth transaction in Japan. Carlyle's long-term track record in Japan, alongside strong investment origination capabilities have helped Fortitude develop a leading presence in the market.

今年我們在保險領域也取得了強勁開局，Fortitude 宣布了超過 80 億美元的再保險交易。Fortitude 與 Taiyo Life Insurance Company 簽訂的年金再保險協議是他們在日本的第六筆交易。凱雷在日本的長期業績記錄以及強大的投資發起能力幫助 Fortitude 在市場上佔據領先地位。

Our pipeline of growth opportunities remains healthy as insurance companies seek to transfer risk and improve capital efficiency. And our strategic initiative to grow capital markets continues to accelerate. Over just the past six months, we generated a record $150 million in fees. We see substantial opportunity for long-term growth in this business, although the near-term market environment may slow the pace of activity.

隨著保險公司尋求轉移風險和提高資本效率，我們的成長機會管道依然健康。我們發展資本市場的策略舉措持續加速推進。光是在過去六個月裡，我們就創造了創紀錄的 1.5 億美元的費用。儘管短期市場環境可能會減緩活動的步伐，但我們認為該業務具有長期成長的巨大機會。

Moving on to Global Wealth. As you know, two years ago, we have prioritized this initiative by aggressively adding to the team and leveraging our global brand to drive growth. As a result, evergreen inflows have doubled over the past year. In Global Private equity, we remain focused on driving value in our portfolio companies and monetizing assets. We've generated $20 billion of realizations over the last 12 months.

邁向全球財富。如您所知，兩年前，我們就優先考慮這項舉措，積極擴充團隊並利用我們的全球品牌來推動成長。因此，過去一年常青流入資金增加了一倍。在全球私募股權領域，我們仍然專注於推動投資組合公司的價值和資產貨幣化。過去 12 個月，我們已經實現了 200 億美元的收益。

In the first quarter, we successfully IPO-ed Hexaware Technologies in India. This was the largest ever sponsor-backed IPO in India and the largest technology services IPO globally in more than a decade. We also closed a nearly $1 billion secondary sale of shares of StandardAero and a $1.4 billion sale of power assets. John will touch on this in more detail.

第一季度，我們成功幫助 Hexaware Technologies 在印度上市。這是印度有史以來規模最大的由保薦人支持的首次公開發行 (IPO)，也是十多年來全球規模最大的科技服務首次公開發行 (IPO)。我們還完成了近 10 億美元的 StandardAero 股票二級銷售和 14 億美元的電力資產出售。約翰將更詳細地談論這一點。

We saw continued appreciation in our two latest vintage US buyout funds and the underlying portfolio companies continue to grow EBITDA at double-digit rates through the first quarter. The portfolio remains well positioned in the current environment.

我們看到我們最新的兩隻美國老式收購基金持續升值，並且其投資組合公司在第一季的 EBITDA 繼續以兩位數的速度成長。在當前環境下，該投資組合仍處於有利地位。

To close, Carlyle is much more diversified today than it's ever been. During these periods of market volatility, the breadth of our platform enables us to mobilize where opportunities present itself. We will continue to invest in our growth, leverage our long-term investment horizon and capture value creation opportunities in the private markets.

總而言之，凱雷如今的多元化程度比以往任何時候都高。在市場波動期間，我們平台的廣度使我們能夠抓住機會。我們將繼續投資我們的成長，利用我們的長期投資眼光，並抓住私人市場中的價值創造機會。

With that, let me now turn the call over to John, who will walk through our results in more detail.

說完這些，現在讓我把電話轉給約翰，他將更詳細地介紹我們的結果。

Thanks, Harvey. Good morning, everyone. As Harvey said, our first quarter results were strong. We delivered record FRE, FRE margin and assets under management. DE of $455 million was a record start to the year. As a management team, we are focused on accelerating long-term growth while also achieving our near-term goals. We remain comfortable with our ability to meet our 2025 financial targets, but realize the situation is fluid and the market backdrop is uncertain. We continue to invest in our businesses to better position Carlyle for long-term success.

謝謝，哈維。大家早安。正如哈維所說，我們的第一季業績強勁。我們實現了創紀錄的 FRE、FRE 保證金和管理資產規模。4.55 億美元的 DE 創下了今年的開局紀錄。作為管理團隊，我們專注於加速長期成長，同時實現我們的近期目標。我們仍然對實現 2025 年財務目標的能力充滿信心，但也意識到情況瞬息萬變，市場背景不確定。我們將繼續投資我們的業務，以使凱雷獲得長期成功。

We finished the first quarter with $453 billion of AUM, up 6% year-over-year. Growth was driven by $50 billion of inflows over the past year, including $14 billion in the first quarter alone. We generated record FRE of $311 million in the first quarter, 17% higher than the first quarter last year. Overall, we saw strong growth in Carlyle AlpInvest and Global Credit, while Global Private Equity was in line with expectations.

第一季度，我們的資產管理規模達到 4,530 億美元，年增 6%。成長的動力來自於過去一年 500 億美元的資金流入，其中僅第一季就流入了 140 億美元。我們在第一季創造了創紀錄的 3.11 億美元的 FRE，比去年第一季高出 17%。整體而言，我們看到凱雷AlpInvest和全球信貸的強勁成長，而全球私募股權則符合預期。

Transaction fees more than tripled in the quarter compared to the same period last year. The $150 million in transaction fees we generated over the past two quarters is more than any prior year. Carlyle AlpInvest generated $66 million in FRE in the first quarter, nearly double the level from the first quarter of 2024.

與去年同期相比，本季交易費用增加了兩倍多。我們在過去兩個季度產生的交易費為 1.5 億美元，比往年都多。Carlyle AlpInvest 在第一季創造了 6,600 萬美元的 FRE，幾乎是 2024 年第一季的兩倍。

Management fee growth of nearly 40% year-over-year led to a record FRE margin of 58% with good momentum across all areas of Carlyle AlpInvest, with strong inflows into our secondaries platform, portfolio finance and our global wealth strategy.

管理費年增近 40%，導致 FRE 利潤率達到創紀錄的 58%，凱雷 AlpInvest 各個領域都發展勢頭良好，我們的二級平台、投資組合融資和全球財富策略都獲得了強勁的資金流入。

In Global Credit, first quarter revenue of $232 million grew 28% year-over-year, driven by capital market fees. Global Credit also experienced strong first quarter inflows of $7.5 billion. The rapid growth of Carlyle AlpInvest and Global Credit has driven these businesses to account for 50% of our firm-wide FRE compared to 34% in 2023.

在全球信貸方面，受資本市場費用的推動，第一季營收為 2.32 億美元，年增 28%。全球信貸第一季也經歷了強勁的 75 億美元資金流入。凱雷AlpInvest和全球信貸的快速成長使得這些業務占我們全公司FRE的50%，而2023年這一比例為34%。

In Global Private Equity, results were in line with our expectations given expected step-downs in several funds. Management fees should increase in the second quarter as we recently activated management fees on our latest US real estate fund. A highlight in our Private Equity business is US buyout, our largest flagship strategy, which continues to perform particularly well. The last two vintages each appreciated 2% to 3% in the quarter and around 18% over the past year.

在全球私募股權領域，考慮到幾隻基金的預期降幅，業績符合我們的預期。由於我們最近對最新的美國房地產基金啟動了管理費，因此管理費應該會在第二季增加。我們的私募股權業務的一大亮點是美國收購，這是我們最大的旗艦策略，其表現持續出色。最近兩個年份的葡萄酒在本季分別升值了 2% 至 3%，在過去一年則升值了約 18%。

Along with this appreciation, we also returned significant capital to investors. Across all of our US buyout strategies, we returned nearly $8 billion of proceeds to investors over the past year. More broadly across the Carlyle investment platform, we returned $31 billion in proceeds, more than 40% higher than the prior 12-month period. This is indicative of the strength of our diversified global investment portfolio and further upside when markets are more active.

隨著這種升值，我們也向投資者返還了大量資本。透過我們所有的美國收購策略，我們在過去一年中向投資者返還了近 80 億美元的收益。更廣泛地來看，凱雷投資平台的收益為 310 億美元，較前 12 個月成長 40% 以上。這表明我們多元化的全球投資組合實力雄厚，並且當市場更加活躍時，我們的投資組合還有進一步上漲的空間。

In our evergreen strategies, we managed $26 billion in AUM, up 27% over the past year. And we continue to actively invest in our wealth capabilities with headcount in this area increasing by 100% over the past year. This remains a major driver of long-term growth for Carlyle.

在我們的常青策略中，我們管理的資產管理規模為 260 億美元，比去年成長了 27%。我們繼續積極投資於我們的財富能力，過去一年該領域的員工人數增加了 100%。這仍然是凱雷長期成長的主要動力。

Wrapping up, while market conditions remain dynamic, Carlyle is built to perform across market cycles. Our nearly 40-year track record, long-term capital base and global scale provide a strong foundation for continued growth. We are confident in our ability to deliver attractive results for shareholders while continuing to be a trusted partner to our investors.

總而言之，儘管市場狀況依然動態，但凱雷的投資理念是能夠跨越整個市場週期。我們近40年的業績記錄、長期的資本基礎和全球規模為持續成長提供了堅實的基礎。我們有信心為股東帶來豐厚的業績，同時繼續成為投資者值得信賴的合作夥伴。

With that, let me turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

說完這些，請允許我將電話轉給接線員來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Ben Budish, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

Hey, good morning and thanks for taking the question. Maybe just starting out with something high level. I mean you talked a little bit about the macro backdrop. Just given your portfolio is quite global, can you talk a little bit about how you're viewing the impact of trade policy and tariffs on investment and deployment activity?

嘿，早上好，感謝您回答這個問題。也許只是從一些高層次的事情開始。我的意思是您談到了一點宏觀背景。鑑於您的投資組合相當全球化，您能否談談您如何看待貿易政策和關稅對投資和部署活動的影響？

And how is that maybe feeding into LP discussions. You mentioned in Q1, especially earlier in the year, you had returned a lot of capital. How is that sort of impacting LP discussions more recently?

這對 LP 討論有何幫助？您提到在第一季度，特別是今年早些時候，您已經返還了大量資本。這對最近的 LP 討論有何影響？

Sure. So I think actually, just stepping back for a second, and I talked a bit about some of this in my prepared remarks. We obviously came into the year with very, very high expectations. The tariff policy implementation, I think market participants obviously were caught a bit flat-footed with the initial announcement. I think subsequent to that, the administration has done a thoughtful job of bringing together how they're thinking about the broader implementation of the full policy set.

當然。所以我認為，實際上，只是退一步來說，我在準備好的發言中已經談了一些這方面的內容。顯然，我們對這一年抱有非常高的期望。對於關稅政策的實施，我認為市場參與者顯然對最初的公告感到有點措手不及。我認為，在此之後，政府已經做了周到的工作，匯總了他們對如何更廣泛地實施整套政策的想法。

I was at Milken earlier this week, and I heard the Treasury Secretary talk about the 3 legs of the stool. And I think that the articulation and the understanding across market participants is really, I think, having a much more positive impact on what was initial sentiment reaction. Now more broadly, I would say the discussions with LPs, there's a sort of a -- sort of short-term focus that everyone has in the marketplace, and I've talked to more CIOs and CEOs in the last couple of weeks than maybe in my entire career.

本週早些時候，我在米爾肯，聽到財政部長談論凳子的三條腿。我認為市場參與者之間的表達和理解確實對最初的情緒反應產生了更積極的影響。現在更廣泛地說，我想說與 LP 的討論，有一種——每個人在市場上都關注短期利益的焦點，過去幾週我與 CIO 和 CEO 交談的次數可能比我整個職業生涯中交談的次數還要多。

I would say -- so obviously, there's a lot of focus on headlines, expectations day-to-day because the market just wants to see sort of where the policy is headed in terms of progress. But I would say, broadly speaking, this is not an environment where I would say it is either a red light or a green light. I would say it's sort of different shades of yellow. But the vast majority of the senior folks I've spoken in the last several weeks are, I would say, cautiously opportunistic.

我想說——顯然，人們每天都非常關注頭條新聞和預期，因為市場只是想看看政策的進展。但我想說，從廣義上講，這不是一個我會說是紅燈還是綠燈的環境。我想說它是不同深淺的黃色。但我想說，過去幾週與我交談過的絕大多數高層人士都是謹慎的機會主義者。

So very much looking for opportunities to deploy capital in one variant or another, each conversation finishes with, hey, we're open for business. And that shouldn't really be surprising when we think about where the S&P is relative to the start of the year and where capital markets are. But I would say that people are deploying capital, but they're being very, very thoughtful about it. And the more progress we see on policy implementation, obviously, the more positive reaction we have in the marketplace.

因此，我們非常希望尋找機會以某種方式部署資本，每次談話結束時，我們都會說，嘿，我們開始營業了。當我們思考標準普爾指數相對於年初的水平以及資本市場的水平時，這並不奇怪。但我想說的是，人們正在部署資本，但他們對此非常非常深思熟慮。顯然，政策實施的進展越大，市場反應就越積極。

Now the one big question out there that everyone is focused on, as are we, is where does the dialogue sit with China because it is hard for market participants, including us, to see the backdrop in terms of second order effects in the economy. If the US and China, the two largest economies in the world are in some very long sustained trade embargo or trade war, it's hard to imagine that really being good for the global economic environment. So that's really the biggest question on people's minds, and they want to see progress.

現在，每個人都在關注的一個大問題是，與中國的對話應該如何進行，因為包括我們在內的市場參與者很難從經濟的二階效應角度看清背景。如果美國和中國這兩個世界上最大的經濟體陷入長期的貿易禁運或貿易戰，很難想像這對全球經濟環境真的有好處。這確實是人們心中最大的疑問，他們希望看到進步。

Alexander Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷山大·布洛斯坦。

Hi, good morning, everybody. Thank you for the question as well. So Ari, I wanted to double-click into Private Equity for a second. So very good momentum outside of Private Equity. Obviously, you talked about AlpInvest and real estate and credit. All of that is moving along nicely. But given the fact that there's just so much focus for you and really the industry broadly as well on DPI performance and just the elongated sales cycle we're seeing in private equity.

大家好，早安。也感謝您的提問。所以，阿里，我想稍微談談私募股權。私募股權之外的勢頭非常好。顯然，您談到了 AlpInvest、房地產和信貸。一切進展順利。但考慮到您和整個行業都非常關注 DPI 表現以及我們在私募股權中看到的延長的銷售週期。

How are you thinking about the corporate PE franchise for the next 12 to 18 months? What does it mean for CP IX and in terms of both sizing and timing?

您如何看待未來 12 至 18 個月的企業 PE 特許經營權？這對於 CP IX 以及其規模和時間而言意味著什麼？

So on timing, I don't see any major adjustments to us going back into the market on CP IX. And that will really be driven by our pace of deployment. You saw that we were very active in deploying capital in CP IX last year. I think more importantly, across the private equity complex, a couple of factors.

因此，從時間上看，我認為我們重返 CP IX 市場不會有任何重大調整。這實際上將取決於我們的部署速度。您看到，去年我們在 CP IX 中非常積極地部署資本。我認為更重要的是，在整個私募股權領域，有幾個因素。

One, towards the end of this year, beginning of next year, we will be launching our wealth platform, and that will bring in a whole separate stream of capital. There's a lot of appetite for Carlyle on platforms globally across all of our solutions.

第一，今年底、明年年初，我們會推出我們的財富平台，這個平台會為我們帶來一股全新的資金流。凱雷對我們所有解決方案的全球平台有著濃厚的興趣。

In terms of the dynamic, I'll tell you the way we're thinking about it and the way we were managing our business is, obviously, our teams have done a really good job, and John highlighted US Buyout in terms of the portfolio. And the amount of capital we returned across our private equity complex really makes us a bit of a positive outlier.

就動態而言，我會告訴你我們對此的看法以及我們管理業務的方式，顯然，我們的團隊做得非常好，約翰在投資組合方面強調了美國收購。我們在整個私募股權投資領域所回饋的資本金額確實讓我們成為了一個正面的異常值。

So we've been actively returning capital. I mean, off the top of my head, if I think about the last nine months or so, we took StandardAero public. I think it was the third largest IPO of the year in the US. We did Hexaware, which John spoke about in India, which is the largest ever private equity owned company in India. We did Rigaku, largest ever private equity-owned entity in Japan. And so our teams have been navigating this market environment, I think, quite thoughtfully.

因此我們一直在積極返還資本。我的意思是，如果我回想一下過去九個月左右的時間，我們就將 StandardAero 上市了。我認為這是今年美國第三大IPO。我們做了約翰在印度談到的 Hexaware，它是印度有史以來最大的私募股權公司。我們創辦了理學株式會社，這是日本有史以來最大的私募股權投資實體。因此，我認為我們的團隊一直在非常謹慎地應對這種市場環境。

In terms of private equity broadly, I think that the marketplace will continue to see some headwinds. I think that those headwinds, if you have scale like we do and diversification, I think it's much more easily navigated. But we're really quite proud of the performance, particularly in our US Buyout business. I don't know, John, what would you add?

就私募股權而言，我認為市場將繼續面臨一些阻力。我認為，如果像我們一樣擁有規模和多樣化，那麼克服這些不利因素就會容易得多。但我們確實對業績感到非常自豪，尤其是我們的美國收購業務。我不知道，約翰，你想補充什麼？

Yes. Look, this is a business we've talked a lot about in the past. We made some changes to our US private equity business. I would just echo what Harvey said. We're very happy with the PE performance in our US Buyout business. Again, good appreciation this quarter. If you look at the last 12 months, around 18% for our two latest vintages.

是的。瞧，這是我們過去經常談論的業務。我們對美國私募股權業務做了一些改變。我只是想重複哈維所說的話。我們對美國收購業務的 PE 表現非常滿意。再次，本季的評價良好。如果你看一下過去 12 個月，你會發現我們最新兩款年份的葡萄酒的漲幅約為 18%。

So the performance is tracking to our expectations. And also just what Harvey said, we have been very active on the realization front, and Harvey listed a couple of those. And quite frankly, we even had a realization in our Asia buyout business post trade Liberation Day. We sold a big block of a company we owned in India.

因此，業績表現符合我們的預期。正如哈維所說，我們在實現方面一直非常活躍，哈維列舉了其中的幾個。坦白說，在貿易解放日之後，我們甚至在亞洲收購業務中實現了這一目標。我們出售了我們在印度擁有的一家公司的大部分股份。

So we're continuing to execute, and that's what we're focused on.

因此我們會繼續執行，這也是我們關注的重點。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

戴維特（Patrick Davitt），自主研究。

Hi, good morning. So nice to see you had some chunky insurance wins. But how should we be thinking about those relative to the kind of roughly $40 billion flow guide you were expecting for the year? Is this counting towards that? Or should we consider it incremental to that? And then more specifically, within that flow track, could you update us on how the wealth product flows are tracking, how the redemption requests are tracking since Liberation Day? Thank you.

嗨，早安。很高興看到您獲得了豐厚的保險賠償。但是，相對於您預計的今年約 400 億美元的流量指南，我們應該如何考慮這些呢？這算嗎？或者我們應該認為它是漸進的嗎？然後更具體地說，在流動軌道內，您能否向我們介紹一下自解放日以來財富產品流動的追蹤情況以及贖回請求的追蹤情況？謝謝。

Yes. So when we put out the $40 billion-ish in the fourth quarter results, we view the $40 billion as a flow number. So you should assume the 14 tracks to that $40 billion flow number we put out there. In terms of wealth, I would say we've had very, very strong performance.

是的。因此，當我們公佈第四季業績約 400 億美元時，我們將這 400 億美元視為一個流量數字。因此，您應該假設我們提出的 400 億美元流量數字有 14 條軌道。就財富而言，我想說我們的表現非常非常強大。

Again, this is an area we have been talking about a lot. We're very focused on making investments in that space. Fundraising in the quarter was up 40%. The amount we have in the Evergreen products is up 70% year-over-year. So we're very pleased with the progress we're seeing in wealth.

再次強調，這是我們經常討論的領域。我們非常注重在該領域的投資。本季募款金額成長了 40%。我們的 Evergreen 產品數量年增了 70%。因此，我們對財富的進步感到非常高興。

And again, we only really have two products in the market, that's CTAC, our credit product and CAPM, our secondaries product. And if you look at the trajectory of CAPM, it's really quite impressive in terms of the fundraising.

再說一次，我們在市場上實際上只有兩種產品，即我們的信貸產品 CTAC 和我們的二級產品 CAPM。如果你看一下 CAPM 的發展軌跡，你會發現它在募款方面確實相當令人印象深刻。

In terms of kind of post-trade policy shift, I'd say the data set we're looking at, it's limited to April, but we have not seen anything in the data that would give us pause. April actually was a good month. So based on what we're seeing, we feel pretty good.

就貿易後政策轉變而言，我想說，我們正在查看的資料集僅限於四月份，但我們沒有在數據中看到任何讓我們停下來思考的事情。四月其實是一個好月份。因此，根據我們所看到的情況，我們感覺非常好。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Oh great, thanks. Good morning, folks. Thanks for bringing my question. Maybe just shifting to expenses, very good FRE margin in 1Q. It seems like it's tracking a little bit ahead of the run rate expected for the year. So maybe if you can talk, John, a little bit about that run rate. Is this a good run rate for G&A as we move through the year? And should we be expecting any additional expenses related to the retail wealth efforts?

噢，太好了，謝謝。大家早安。感謝您提出我的問題。也許只是轉向費用，第一季的 FRE 利潤率非常好。看起來它的運行速度比今年預期的要快一點。所以約翰，你能否談談運行率？就全年而言，這是否是 G&A 的良好運行率？我們是否應該預期與零售財富努力相關的任何額外費用？

Yes. So I would say the 48% FRE margin, we're very happy with where that margin is. And look, we've been very, very -- we've talked a lot about how we don't see expenses as a way to get that margin higher. We're much more focused on driving that margin higher via growth. And we're investing in the business heavily. As we said on the last earnings call, the 6% FRE growth we gave for 2025 really reflects continued investment in the business.

是的。所以我想說 48% 的 FRE 利潤率，我們對這個利潤率感到非常滿意。瞧，我們已經非常非常——我們已經討論了很多次，我們不認為支出是提高利潤率的一種方式。我們更加重視透過成長來提高利潤率。我們正在大力投資該業務。正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所說，我們給出的 2025 年 6% 的 FRE 成長率確實反映了對業務的持續投資。

So the 48% you're seeing in the quarter reflects heavy investment in the areas we've talked about in the past where we see growth coming from. So I wouldn't expect that to escalate. I think it's pretty well planned out throughout the year. In terms of G&A, look, the first quarter number was clearly higher than the first quarter of last year. I would just say the first quarter last year had some kind of one-off positives.

因此，本季看到的 48% 的成長反映了我們過去談到的那些成長領域的大量投資。所以我不希望事態升級。我認為全年的計劃都安排得非常周全。從一般及行政費用 (G&A) 的角度來看，第一季的數字明顯高於去年第一季。我只想說去年第一季有一些一次性的正面因素。

So I don't think it's a good reference point. But I'm happy with where G&A is. I think it's pretty close to a good run rate type number. I kind of think of $100 million-ish as a good run rate G&A. Again, fourth quarter, if you compare first quarter against fourth quarter, fourth quarter is always a bit elevated, but we're very pleased with where G&A is and kind of $95 million to $100 million-ish is kind of how I think about a run rate.

所以我不認為這是一個好的參考點。但我對 G&A 的現狀很滿意。我認為它非常接近良好的運行率類型數字。我認為 1 億美元左右是一個良好的 G&A 運行率。再說一次，如果將第一季與第四季度進行比較，第四季度總是會略有上升，但我們對 G&A 的現狀非常滿意，我認為 9500 萬美元到 1 億美元左右是運行率。

Brian Mckenna, Citizens JMP.

Brian Mckenna，公民 JMP。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So AlpInvest has experienced some pretty impressive growth over the past year. And it seems like the business remains well positioned moving forward. But how should we think about related fundraising for the balance of this year? I know CAPM will be in the market. But what else will you be raising capital for? And then just bigger picture, if I look at AlpInvest FRE, it now represents 20% plus of firm-wide FRE. So where can this contribution go longer term?

謝謝。大家早安。因此，AlpInvest 在過去一年中經歷了相當令人矚目的成長。看起來，該業務在未來仍將保持良好的發展勢頭。但我們該如何考慮今年餘下時間的相關募款呢？我知道 CAPM 將會出現在市場上。但是你還要籌錢做什麼？從更大的角度來看，如果我看一下 AlpInvest FRE，它現在佔整個公司 FRE 的 20% 以上。那麼從長遠來看，這些貢獻可以用在哪裡呢？

So, I'll kick off and then I'll hand over to John for a bit of the detail. But I would say that one of the initiatives over the past few years was really to better integrate the AlpInvest team into the broader strategy of the firm. That included obviously driving the CAPM solution through the wealth channel and really leveraging the entire distribution capability of the firm.

那麼，我先開始，然後我會將一些細節交給約翰。但我想說，過去幾年的舉措之一實際上是將 AlpInvest 團隊更好地融入公司的更廣泛策略中。這顯然包括透過財富管道推動 CAPM 解決方案並真正利用公司的整個分銷能力。

And so what you're really starting to see is the convergence of those strategic efforts plus the great performance by the team. I was just in Amsterdam. We celebrated the 25th anniversary of AlpInvest. And so now this is also an area where LPs globally, regardless of institution, sovereign wealth or the wealth channel, there's huge interest in this category.

因此，您真正開始看到的是這些策略努力與團隊出色表現的融合。我剛剛到阿姆斯特丹。我們慶祝了 AlpInvest 成立 25 週年。因此，現在這也是全球 LP（無論是機構、主權財富或財富管道）都對此類別產生濃厚興趣的領域。

And I would say I expect that to continue for an extended period of time. So as we continue to leverage the brand and the platform, I think there's significant upside from here. But we're really pleased. And obviously, all this has been done across the entire platform organically.

我想說我預計這種情況會持續很長一段時間。因此，隨著我們繼續利用品牌和平台，我認為這將帶來巨大的優勢。但我們真的很高興。顯然，所有這些都是在整個平台上有機地完成的。

Yes. The only thing I'd add, I mean, echo a little bit what Harvey said, we couldn't be more pleased with how this business is performing. I mean the organic growth rate numbers are really, really strong. The FRE margin is very impressive.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，我的意思是，稍微重複一下哈維所說的話，我們對這項業務的表現感到非常滿意。我的意思是有機成長率數字確實非常強勁。FRE 利潤非常可觀。

And look, I think the secondary market as a whole, the market continues to grow at very elevated levels. We think activity levels are going to accelerate given the current market conditions. So we think it's a really attractive space. I think the thing you need to think about in terms of this business and its ability to have a sustainable long-term growth rate is we will wrap up fundraising at some point, probably midyear for our secondaries fund, but that fund is already 57% committed.

而且，我認為整個二級市場將繼續以非常高的水平成長。我們認為，鑑於當前的市場狀況，活動水準將會加速。所以我們認為這是一個非常有吸引力的空間。我認為，就這項業務及其實現可持續長期增長率的能力而言，你需要考慮的是，我們將在某個時候完成融資，可能是我們的二級基金在年中，但該基金已經承諾了 57%。

So there's a very clear growth path for this business. We will probably be in the market sometime soon with the next vintage of the fund. So the growth rate is kind of impressive looking back. But also as you think about this business going forward, I really, really like the growth path.

因此，這項業務的成長路徑非常清晰。我們可能很快就會帶著下一輪基金進入市場。所以回顧起來，這個成長率還是令人印象深刻的。但當你考慮這項業務的未來發展時，我真的非常喜歡這條成長路徑。

Kenneth Worthington, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的肯尼斯‧沃辛頓。

Hi, good morning. We're seeing some potential for stress in the endowment sector and the financial media is suggesting their position in private markets could decline. I guess maybe first, do you think this is a legitimate topic or might it be overblown? And assuming it's not overblown, can you talk about this from a risk perspective for Carlyle and future fundraising if endowments slow investments in private markets?

嗨，早安。我們看到捐贈基金領域存在一些潛在的壓力，金融媒體暗示其在私人市場的地位可能會下降。我想首先，您認為這是一個合理的話題還是可能被誇大了？假設這種情況沒有被誇大，如果捐贈基金減緩了私人市場的投資，您能否從凱雷和未來融資的風險角度談談這個問題？

And then the different perspective is, what could this mean for AlpInvest and your secondaries and wealth business given your dry powder and fundraising potential there?

然後從不同的角度來看，考慮到你的資金和籌資潛力，這對 AlpInvest 以及你的二級市場和財富業務意味著什麼？

So I don't see the endowment shift in terms of some of the bigger headline numbers that you've seen sort of being broad-based or material to the business or to the industry. Obviously, we just spoke about in the prior question, we're one of the leading providers of capital through our secondaries and co-invest platform at AlpInvest.

因此，從一些較大的總體數字來看，我認為捐贈的變化並不具有廣泛的基礎，也不對企業或產業具有重要意義。顯然，我們剛才在上一個問題中提到，我們是透過 AlpInvest 的二級市場和共同投資平台提供資本的主要提供者之一。

And so this in the short term will certainly be potentially opportunity for us to deploy capital into those flows. We will see all those flows. As you would imagine, there won't be any flow we don't see given the brand and the team. But I don't see this being a significant overhang in terms of allocation to private capital. I think it's going to be more isolated. Now that could evolve, but that's my viewpoint today.

因此，短期內這肯定是我們將資本投入這些流動的潛在機會。我們將看到所有這些流動。正如您所想像的，考慮到品牌和團隊，我們不會看不到任何流程。但我並不認為這會對私人資本的配置產生重大影響。我認為它會變得更加孤立。現在情況可能會有所變化，但這就是我今天的觀點。

Michael Brown, Wells Fargo.

麥可布朗，富國銀行。

Great, thank you for taking my question. So Harvey, there's headlines that continue to come out about a large life and annuity provider and they're considering some strategic alternatives. Would Carlyle consider some inorganic growth in that space? Is that something that's kind of interesting to you in terms of the opportunity to manage something of that asset size?

太好了，謝謝你回答我的問題。哈維，不斷有關於大型人壽和年金提供者的頭條新聞出現，他們正在考慮一些策略替代方案。凱雷會考慮在該領域進行一些無機成長嗎？就管理如此規模的資產的機會而言，這對您來說有趣嗎？

And can you just maybe touch on some of the strategic ways you could approach something like that, just given the size and complexity? Would that have to be done via kind of partnership? Maybe how could that work with Fortitude. Any interesting color here would be helpful. Thank you.

考慮到問題的規模和複雜性，您能否談談可以採取哪些策略方法來處理此類問題？這是否必須透過某種合作來實現？也許這對 Fortitude 來說如何起作用。這裡任何有趣的顏色都會有幫助。謝謝。

Okay. So having been here a bit over two years now, I would say initially when I got here, obviously, we were very focused on repositioning the firm on all the strategic initiatives we've covered, and we feel really good about the progress we've made and the momentum in the franchise. But 2 years ago, I think the notion of doing something inorganic would have been too soon. I would say we're much more front-footed in terms of how we want to think about that.

好的。所以，我已經在這裡待了兩年多了，我想說，當我剛來到這裡時，顯然，我們非常專注於重新定位公司所涉及的所有戰略舉措，我們對所取得的進展和特許經營的發展勢頭感到非常滿意。但兩年前，我認為做一些無機的事情還為時過早。我想說，我們在如何思考這個問題方面更加積極主動。

But with respect to our engagement on opportunities broadly, it really is just in the corporate finance math and whether it makes sense. We feel really good about the breadth of the platform, whether it's our AlpInvest secondaries, co-invest, portfolio finance, the credit platform, our CLO business, everything that's happening in private equity. So there's no gun to our head in terms of having an asset class we need to fill.

但就我們廣泛參與的機會而言，這實際上只是企業財務數學以及是否有意義。我們對平台的廣度感到非常滿意，無論是我們的 AlpInvest 二級市場、共同投資、投資組合融資、信貸平台、我們的 CLO 業務，或是私募股權領域發生的一切。因此，就我們需要填補的資產類別而言，我們並沒有受到任何威脅。

And all the growth we've talked about for the past two years culminating in today, it's 100% organic, everything the firm has done. So the firm is demonstrating now that we have the power to mobilize organically.

我們談論的過去兩年來在今天達到頂峰的所有成長，都是 100% 有機的，公司所做的一切都是。因此，公司現在證明我們擁有有機調動的能力。

Now back to your question, I think with respect to insurance space, and obviously, I can't talk about any specific transactions we look at. But in the insurance space, the Fortitude partnership and our partners in Fortitude have really been fantastic for us in a number of ways. Obviously, the pure benefits of the growth in Fortitude and our capital commitment there and our ability to work with great partners in that business. That's kind of the narrow definition of why it's been fantastic.

現在回到你的問題，我認為就保險領域而言，顯然，我不能談論我們所關注的任何具體交易。但在保險領域，Fortitude 合作夥伴關係以及我們在 Fortitude 的合作夥伴在許多方面確實為我們帶來了巨大的幫助。顯然，Fortitude 的成長和我們在那裡的資本投入以及我們與該業務領域的優秀合作夥伴合作的能力帶來了純粹的利益。這就是為什麼它如此出色的狹義定義。

The other reason why it's been fantastic is it's because it's given us really, really great intelligence and asset management capabilities in the insurance space. So working with Fortitude has given us a multiyear advantage in terms of that skill set. And as you saw last year, as we grow our asset-based finance business and the transactions we've announced and the partnerships we've established. And so as all of this has converged together, it's also given us a much more multidimensional view on how to think about insurance.

它之所以如此出色的另一個原因是，它為我們在保險領域提供了非常出色的情報和資產管理能力。因此，與 Fortitude 合作使我們在技能方面獲得了多年的優勢。正如您去年所看到的，我們的資產融資業務、宣布的交易和建立的合作夥伴關係都在不斷增長。因此，當所有這些結合在一起時，它也為我們提供了關於如何思考保險的更多維度的視角。

I think in that maybe underneath your question, because I'll just wrap up with this point is probably underneath your question is this question of, okay, capital heavy or capital light. You didn't express it that way, but I think that's sort of embedded in your question.

我認為，也許在你的問題之下，因為我只想總結這一點，可能在你的問題之下是這個問題，好吧，資本密集還是資本稀少。你沒有這樣表達，但我認為這在某種程度上已經融入你的問題了。

And so I'll tell you the way that we think about it and our board thinks about it, it is not so much that capital heavy is negative or capital-light is positive or vice versa. I think it's a bit of a Goldilocks thing. So there's sort of an optimal point of you want a certain amount of capital, but not too much, but we have a preference for staying capital light.

因此，我會告訴您我們和董事會對此的看法，並不是說資本密集型就是負面的，或者資本稀少型就是正面的，反之亦然。我認為這有點像金髮女孩的事情。因此，存在一個最佳點，即你需要一定數量的資本，但不要太多，但我們傾向於保持輕資本。

And if we can solve for capital light, and I will tell you, when you go through market environments like you saw over the past six weeks and you can wholly focus on deployment, managing your portfolio and not have to worry about a heavy balance sheet, you really see the benefits of that, and you can be extraordinarily front-footed with your clients. And so strong bias for capital light.

如果我們能夠解決輕資本問題，我會告訴你，當你經歷過去六週所看到的市場環境時，你可以完全專注於部署、管理你的投資組合，而不必擔心沉重的資產負債表，你真的會看到這樣做的好處，而且你可以在客戶面前佔據非常有利的地位。因此對資本輕盈有著強烈的偏好。

But there -- at this point, I would say any number of ways we could solve for an accretive acquisition if it made sense for us in any part of the business.

但在這一點上，我想說，如果增值收購對我們業務的任何部分都有意義，我們就可以用多種方式解決。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I was hoping maybe you could elaborate upon the opportunity set that you see in Japan across your business, a lot happening there at the micro level across Japan. Just curious if you could speak to some of the opportunities across the Buyout business, but then also across Fortitude and on the credit side as well? Thank you.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答這個問題。我希望您能詳細說明您在日本的業務中看到的機遇，以及日本各地微觀層面上發生的許多事情。我只是好奇您是否可以談談收購業務中的一些機會，以及 Fortitude 和信貸方面的一些機會？謝謝。

Yes. So obviously, the Japanese market has been incredibly dynamic. I'll be in Japan in a couple of weeks celebrating our 20th anniversary. I think we're one of two firms that have actually stayed committed to Japan for that period of time, and the franchise is exceptionally strong, exceptionally strong. Obviously, they grew their funds significantly in the most recent fundraise last year. And my expectation is that when they're back in the market in the next couple of years, that fundraise will just continue to grow because the demand for LP interest and the opportunity set only continues to look better, at least right now.

是的。顯然，日本市場一直非常活躍。幾週後我將前往日本慶祝我們的二十週年紀念。我認為我們是兩家在那段時間一直致力於日本市場的公司之一，而且我們的特許經營業務非常強勁，非常強勁。顯然，他們在去年最近一次的融資中大幅增加了資金。我的預期是，當他們在未來幾年重返市場時，融資金額將繼續增長，因為 LP 權益的需求和機會組合只會繼續變得更好，至少目前是這樣。

In terms of, I think, how do we extend that brand, we're capable of doing that in a lot of ways. We've been on wealth platforms in Japan. Obviously, working with Fortitude to leverage their skill set and our brand has been very, very powerful. You've seen us, as I said in my remarks, our sixth transaction. So we're really a leader in the insurance space there. But all of this dates back to the 25-year history the firm has invested in Japan.

就如何擴展該品牌而言，我認為我們有能力透過多種方式做到這一點。我們在日本的財富平台上有過。顯然，與 Fortitude 合作以利用他們的技能和我們的品牌非常非常強大。正如我在演講中所說，你們已經看到了我們的第六筆交易。因此，我們確實是那裡的保險領域的領導者。但這一切都源自於該公司在日本投資的25年歷史。

I will say the Japanese market is increasingly dynamic for a couple of reasons, which are compelling. One, obviously, is this evolution of companies willing to become more dynamic in terms of their corporate stewardship. So that's fantastic for us, again, given our long-standing role in the region and our network. But also, there's a real push to extend asset management capabilities, and so we can play a valuable role there. So we're super enthusiastic about our position in Japan and the role in the region.

我想說的是，日本市場正變得越來越活躍，原因有幾個，而且非常引人注目。顯然，其中之一就是企業願意在企業管理上變得更積極主動。考慮到我們在該地區的長期作用和我們的網絡，這對我們來說再次是一件好事。但同時，我們也確實在推動擴展資產管理能力，因此我們可以在其中發揮寶貴的作用。因此，我們對自己在日本的地位和在該地區的作用非常熱衷。

William Katz, TD Cowen

威廉·卡茨（William Katz），TD Cowen

Thank you for taking the question. Good morning, everybody. Maybe for John or yourself, Harvey, you've done a very nice job as you highlighted on the transaction line. Could you unpack maybe the difference between sort of regular way leverage to deployment versus where you stand in terms of the capital markets? And as you look ahead, how should we think about the flight path for growth off of the first six months -- last six months of levels? Thank you.

感謝您回答這個問題。大家早安。也許對約翰或你自己來說，哈維，你已經做得非常好了，正如你在交易線上所強調的那樣。您能否解釋一下常規方式的槓桿部署與您在資本市場中所處位置之間的差異？展望未來，我們該如何思考前六個月至後六個月的成長路徑？謝謝。

So I'll handle that. Yes. So again, this was a strategic initiative I launched two years ago. The team here was extraordinary in terms of managing the liability side of the balance sheet of the portfolio companies, but there wasn't a process in place for actually driving value in terms of the capital markets business beyond that. So we protected the capability set, added to it and really restructured the incentive across the firm for driving value through capital markets.

所以我會處理這個。是的。這是我兩年前發起的一項策略性舉措。這裡的團隊在管理投資組合公司資產負債表的負債方方面表現出色，但除此之外，還沒有一個流程來真正推動資本市場業務的價值。因此，我們保護了這些能力，並對其進行了增強，並真正重組了整個公司透過資本市場推動價值的激勵機制。

Now what we're not doing is we're not committing a lot of balance sheet. We're not taking risk. This is really being driven by the execution and activity levels across the platform, whether it's in private equity, credit, infrastructure. It's going to be activity driven. And so quarter-to-quarter, it's going to be -- you'll see it will be around deployment, restructurings and things like that, that we do in terms of the portfolio company balance sheets and how we invest capital.

現在我們沒有做的是，我們沒有投入大量的資產負債表。我們不會冒險。這實際上是由整個平台的執行和活動水平所推動的，無論是在私募股權、信貸還是基礎設施領域。它將由活動驅動。因此，每個季度，你會看到它將圍繞部署、重組和諸如此類的事情，我們在投資組合公司資產負債表和我們如何投資資本方面所做的工作。

But the trajectory here is quite good over the long term. A lot of the businesses weren't actually enabled or in a position to actually participate in this. And so as we mobilize the firm across this, there's multiyear growth here. But as John said, the $150 million that we generated just in the last two quarters would have been the best year ever. And this is not in a high velocity environment, obviously.

但從長遠來看，這裡的軌跡相當不錯。許多企業實際上並沒有能力或沒有能力真正參與其中。因此，當我們動員公司力量來做這件事時，這裡就會實現多年的成長。但正如約翰所說，我們在過去兩個季度創造的 1.5 億美元本應是有史以來最好的一年。顯然，這並不是在高速環境中。

So hard to put a hard number on it. But again, I think we're super proud of what the team is doing. But most importantly, we're not taking any capital risk here. So we're staying capital-light in this model.

很難給出一個確切的數字。但我再次認為，我們對團隊所做的事情感到非常自豪。但最重要的是，我們在這裡不承擔任何資本風險。因此，我們在這種模式下保持輕資本。

Kyle Voigt, KBW.

凱爾·沃伊特（Kyle Voigt），KBW。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a question on real estate. It looks like CRP X was activated in April and has $7.5 billion committed, so already almost larger than the prior vintage. Just wondering if you could give us an updated view on the sizing for CRP X? And if you could also just tie that into what we could possibly expect for GP segment management fee step up in 2Q versus 1Q as that fund turns on or even an update to the prior comments for the full year GP management fee trajectory in '25 would be helpful.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。只是一個關於房地產的問題。看起來 CRP X 已於 4 月啟動，承諾金額為 75 億美元，幾乎已經超過了上一年的金額。只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關 CRP X 尺寸的最新看法？如果您能將其與我們預期的 GP 部門管理費在第二季度相對於第一季度的增長聯繫起來，因為該基金啟動了，或者甚至對 25 年全年 GP 管理費走勢的先前評論進行更新，這將會很有幫助。

Yes. Kyle, let me start with the back end of your question first. In our GP segment, you did see management fees down. And that was really driven by -- we had a step down in two funds, one of which was our real estate fund. So that was reflected in the first quarter. The April 1, we activated fees on our current real estate fund. So you'll see some growth in the management fees in the second quarter due to us activating the fees on that fund. So we'll benefit from that and see some growth in the second quarter in terms of management fees.

是的。凱爾，讓我先從你的問題的背面開始。在我們的 GP 部門，你確實看到管理費下降了。這其實是因為我們減少了兩檔基金的投入，其中一檔就是我們的房地產基金。這在第一季就有所體現。4月1日，我們啟動了現有房地產基金的費用。因此，由於我們啟動了該基金的費用，您會看到第二季管理費有所增長。因此，我們將從中受益，並看到第二季度管理費方面有所增長。

Look, we're still in the market raising money, so we can't really comment on ultimate size. I would just say what we've said in the past, we expect it to be bigger than the predecessor.

你看，我們仍在市場上籌集資金，所以我們無法對最終規模發表評論。我只是想說我們過去說過的話，我們預計它會比前任更大。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Oh great, thanks for taking my follow up. Actually, I just wanted to come back on Fund IX. Given you're 70% committed on Fund VIII, just the thought process around being back in the market for that fund. Could that be as early as 4Q in terms of a potential fundraise. And I guess in your fundraising sort of target for this year or what you've outlined, is any consideration of Fund IX within that target?

哦，太好了，感謝您接受我的跟進。實際上，我只是想回到基金 IX 上。鑑於您已將 70% 的資金投入到基金 VIII 中，那麼您只需要思考是否要重返該基金的市場。就潛在的籌資而言，最早可能在第四季實現嗎？我想，在您今年的籌款目標或您所概述的目標中，是否有考慮過基金 IX？

There's nothing in Fund IX for that target that we put out earlier this year. And right now, we're still holding to the fourth quarter kickoff for Fund IX, but we're not wedded to it. If the environment stays like this, we'll see how the deployment goes in Fund VIII, but we're very, very focused on the performance of Fund VIII, which as you've seen, has tracked up quite beautifully. So we'll see how we go on Fund IX. But it's going to give or take, three to six months, that's your target zone. But there's nothing in the model for Fund IX.

我們今年稍早提出的 IX 號基金中沒有任何內容可以實現這一目標。目前，我們仍在等待基金 IX 的第四季啟動，但我們並不執著於此。如果環境保持這種狀態，我們將觀察基金 VIII 的部署情況，但我們非常非常關注基金 VIII 的表現，正如您所見，其表現相當出色。因此，我們將看看基金 IX 的進展。但這將需要大約三到六個月的時間，這是你的目標區域。但基金 IX 的模型中沒有任何內容。

Yes, there's no impact to this year for Fund IX. But I would say there's nothing we're seeing day-to-day that would suggest we're not going to put it in the market when Harvey said. Again, the performance in CP VII and CP VIII continues to track ahead of our expectations, and we've been very active on realization. So we feel pretty good about CP IX.

是的，這對第九基金今年沒有影響。但我想說的是，我們每天看到的一切都表明，正如哈維所說的，我們不會將其投放到市場上。再次，CP VII 和 CP VIII 的表現繼續超越我們的預期，並且我們在實現這一目標方面一直非常積極。所以我們對 CP IX 感覺很好。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Oh, thanks for taking the follow-up question. Just wanted to circle back just around the fundraising targets. I think you guys mentioned $40 billion for the year, 6% FRE growth. Did those include the blocks from Fortitude? I think in the quarter, you had $4 billion, and I think there's maybe another $4 billion coming in the second quarter. Just wanted to clarify if that's embedded in the $40 billion fundraising, 6% FRE growth for the year?

哦，感謝您回答後續問題。我只是想再討論一次募款目標。我想你們提到今年的 400 億美元，FRE 成長率為 6%。這些包括 Fortitude 的積木嗎？我認為本季的支出為 40 億美元，而且我認為第二季可能還會再多 40 億美元。只是想澄清一下，這是否包含在 400 億美元的融資和今年 6% 的 FRE 成長中？

Yes, Michael. So when we put out our kind of $40 billion-ish of inflows last year for 2025, that was an inflow number. So it would include the flow from Fortitude. So we had $14 billion in the quarter, which compares to $5 billion first quarter last year, so almost 3 times. And on an LTM basis, we're at $50 billion. So we feel very good about our fundraising capabilities.

是的，邁克爾。因此，當我們去年為 2025 年推出約 400 億美元的流入資金時，這是一個流入數字。因此它將包括來自 Fortitude 的流程。因此，本季我們的營收為 140 億美元，而去年第一季為 50 億美元，幾乎是前者的 3 倍。從 LTM 來看，我們的規模為 500 億美元。因此，我們對我們的籌款能力感到非常滿意。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

戴維特（Patrick Davitt），自主研究。

Hey, thanks for the, follow up. As you pointed out, had some bigger realizations from CP VII in 1Q. How should we think about the triggers for that fund to start actually generating cash carry. And more specifically within that, does IRR need to be higher than 8% before you would feel comfortable doing that? Thank you.

嘿，謝謝你的關注。正如您所指出的，第一季 CP VII 實現了更大的收益。我們應該如何思考觸發該基金真正開始產生現金收益的因素。更具體地說，IRR 是否需要高於 8% 您才會覺得這樣做很舒服？謝謝。

Yes. I mean, look, it's very hard to predict exactly when a carry fund hits carry. I would say we're certainly well on that path. I mean the performance in that fund you're referring to CP VII continues to improve, and we've had a lot of realization activity. And quite frankly, the pipeline of realization activity is heavy in that fund. So we feel very good. Ultimately, when that fund hits full carry is hard to exactly predict, but it's probably at some point over the next kind of 12 months.

是的。我的意思是，很難準確預測套利基金何時會實現套利。我想說我們確實已經在這條道路上前進了。我的意思是，您所指的 CP VII 基金的表現持續改善，而且我們已經進行了許多實現活動。坦白說，該基金的實現活動非常繁重。所以我們感覺非常好。最終，很難準確預測該基金何時實現完全收益，但很可能是在未來 12 個月內的某個時間點。

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想請投資人關係主管 Daniel Harris 致最後總結。

Thank you for your time this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, feel free to reach out to Investor Relations after the call. And we look forward to talking to you in next quarter.

感謝您今天上午抽出時間。如果您有任何後續問題，請在通話結束後隨時聯絡投資者關係部門。我們期待下個季度與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。