Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Carlyle Group fourth-quarter 2024 earnings. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎關注凱雷集團 2024 年第四季財報。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

Now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to the Head of Investor Relations, Daniel Harris. Please proceed.

現在，我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係主管丹尼爾哈里斯。請繼續。

Thank you, Carmen. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; and our Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Strategy, John Redett.

謝謝你，卡門。早安，歡迎參加凱雷 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長哈維施瓦茨 (Harvey Schwartz)；以及我們的財務長兼企業策略主管 John Redett。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is available on our investor relations website. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available. We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We have provided reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和一份詳細的收益報告，可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。本次通話正在進行網路直播，並將提供重播。我們將在今天的電話會議中參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施不應孤立地考慮，也不應取代根據公認會計原則制定的措施。我們已在收益報告中盡可能合理地提供了這些指標與 GAAP 的對帳表。

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the risk factor section of our annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time.

今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述都不能保證未來的表現，因此不應過度依賴它們。這些聲明是基於目前管理階層的預期，涉及固有風險和不確定性，包括我們 10-K 表年度報告中的風險因素部分所確定的風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與所示的結果有重大差異。凱雷不承擔隨時更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

In order to ensure participation by all those on the line today, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for any additional follow-ups. With that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

為了確保今天所有線上人員的參與，請將自己的問題限制為一個，然後返回隊列以進行任何其他後續跟進。說完這些，請允許我將電話轉給我們的執行長哈維·施瓦茨 (Harvey Schwartz)。

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We have a very strong 2024 and I'm pleased to say delivered on each of our financial targets. Our record performance demonstrates our ability to mobilize across the firm and deliver long-term value.

謝謝，丹。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。我們的 2024 年業績非常強勁，我很高興地說，我們實現了每個財務目標。我們創紀錄的業績證明了我們有能力調動整個公司的積極性並實現長期價值。

We generated over $1.1 billion of fee-related earnings, a near 30% increase over 2023. We expanded our FRE margin to 46%, a 900-basis point year-over-year increase. Inflows exceeded $40 billion, that brings us to more than $100 billion of inflows over the last two years, and we returned more than $1 billion dollars in capital to shareholders.

我們創造了超過 11 億美元的費用相關收入，比 2023 年成長近 30%。我們將 FRE 利潤率提高至 46%，較去年同期成長 900 個基點。流入量超過 400 億美元，這使我們過去兩年的流入量超過 1000 億美元，我們向股東返還了超過 10 億美元的資本。

As I approach my two-year anniversary in Carlyle this week, I'd like to reflect on some of our key achievements. When I joined Carlyle, it was clear the firm had a proven investment track record, a leading global brand, an iconic name in financial history. However, there was certainly some work to do. Let me share some of the progress we made across our firm.

本周是我加入卡萊爾兩週年紀念日，我想回顧一下我們所取得的一些主要成就。當我加入凱雷時，很明顯這家公司擁有經過驗證的投資績效、領先的全球品牌和金融史上的標誌性名稱。然而，確實還有一些工作要做。讓我分享一下我們公司取得的一些進展。

We bolster our leadership team to a combination of motions from within and hiring of external industry leaders. This group has quickly come together to mobilize our efforts around improving operations across the firm and delivering performance excellence.

我們透過內部提議和聘請外部產業領袖相結合的方式來加強我們的領導團隊。團隊迅速團結起來，動員我們的力量改善整個公司的營運並實現卓越的績效。

We overhauled our compensation strategy, which improved alignment across all of our stakeholders. You, our shareholders, get more of what you value most: fees, and our investment team's compensation is even more driven by performance. We implemented a new capital allocation strategy with a $1.4 billion dollar share repurchase authorization, reflecting our strong belief that the share price is significantly undervalued.

我們徹底改革了我們的薪酬策略，從而提高了所有利害關係人之間的協調性。您，我們的股東，將獲得更多您最重視的東西：費用，而我們投資團隊的薪酬則更多地取決於業績。我們實施了一項新的資本配置策略，授權回購 14 億美元的股票，反映出我們堅信股價被嚴重低估。

And most importantly, we have both strong momentum in areas we strategically identified for growth over the last few years, like Global Credit and Insurance, Global Investment Solutions, Global Wealth, and Capital Markets. Together, these businesses delivered two-year revenue growth for approximately 40%. Let me underscore that again. Together, these businesses delivered two-year revenue growth of 40%.

最重要的是，我們在過去幾年策略性地確定的成長領域都擁有強勁發展勢頭，例如全球信貸和保險、全球投資解決方案、全球財富和資本市場。這些業務合計實現了兩年約 40% 的收入成長。讓我再次強調這一點。這些業務合計實現了兩年40%的收入成長。

Now, let me focus on our 2024 highlights. First, Global Credit has remained our fastest growing area over the past five years, with revenues increasing 22% in 2024. This business has finished the year at $190 billion of assets under management. Because our third Opportunistic Credit fund, which is 30% larger than the prior vintage.

現在，讓我重點介紹一下我們 2024 年的亮點。首先，全球信貸在過去五年中一直是我們成長最快的領域，2024 年營收成長了 22%。截至今年底，該公司管理的資產總額已達 1,900 億美元。因為我們的第三個機會信貸基金比上一期基金規模擴大了 30%。

We also completed a landmark discovery transaction, one of the largest asset-backed finance transactions of the year. At $25 trillion globally, asset-based and asset-backed finance is a massive addressable market, and we see significant opportunity to continue scaling this business.

我們還完成了一項具有里程碑意義的發現交易，這是今年最大的資產支持融資交易之一。全球資產融資和資產支持融資規模達 25 兆美元，是一個巨大的潛在市場，我們看到了繼續擴大這項業務的巨大機會。

Moving on to Capital Markets, this business was clearly subscale when I arrived two years ago. We need a number of changes to drive value in this business. We appointed a new Global Head of Capital Markets and revised our incentive program. As a result, we had a record year in transaction fees. It's worth noting, this record result was achieved in a market environment well below peak activity levels.

談到資本市場，當我兩年前加入時，這項業務顯然規模較小。我們需要進行一些變革來推動這項業務的價值。我們任命了新的全球資本市場主管並修改了我們的激勵計劃。結果，我們的交易費用創下了歷史新高。值得注意的是，這項創紀錄的業績是在遠低於峰值活動水準的市場環境下取得的。

New areas like asset-backed finance, infrastructure, and renewable energy are now all meaningful capital market [fee] contributors. These areas accounted for nearly 40% of our capital markets revenue in 2024, up from single digits two years ago. In 2025, we expect continued growth in this area.

資產支持融資、基礎設施和再生能源等新領域現在都是有意義的資本市場[費用]貢獻者。這些領域將占我們 2024 年資本市場收入的近 40%，而兩年前這一比例僅為個位數。2025年，我們預計該領域將繼續成長。

Another priority is in broadening the scope of our Global Investment Solutions business. This year, Solutions produced a 44% increase in fee revenue compared to the prior year. This platform has broadened its product set. New areas like CAPM, AlpInvest Global Wealth evergreen fund, and our portfolio finance strategy are adding to the platform scale.

另一個優先事項是擴大我們的全球投資解決方案業務範圍。今年，解決方案的費用收入與前一年相比增加了 44%。該平台拓寬了其產品組合。CAPM、AlpInvest Global Wealth 常青基金等新領域以及我們的投資組合融資策略正在擴大平台規模。

As an example of this growth, we closed the $1 billion-dollar collateralized fund obligation in the fourth quarter. There are two things to note here. One is that the design of this structure improved access to key AlpInvest funds for insurance clients. Two, this is the largest instrument of its kind ever raised. And of course, the core of this business continues to accelerate. We're finalizing fundraising for our 8th vintage secondaries fund, which is already substantially larger than its predecessor.

作為這一增長的一個例子，我們在第四季度完成了 10 億美元的抵押基金債務。這裡有兩點要注意。一是這種結構的設計改善了保險客戶對 AlpInvest 主要基金的取得。二，這是迄今為止同類樂器中最大的。當然，這項業務的核心仍在持續加速發展。我們正在為第八隻老式二級市場基金完成募資，該基金的規模已經比上一期基金大得多。

2024 was also a notable year for our Global Wealth business. We saw record inflows of $4.5 billion and we expect to build on that success in 2025. However, [green wealth] products saw a 65% step up in AUM in 2024 to over $9 billion. There's strong demand across the globe for Carlyle solutions. We've added new distribution partners, and we expect our new private equity product to launch in the latter half of 2025.

2024 年對於我們的全球財富業務來說也是值得紀念的一年。我們看到了創紀錄的 45 億美元的流入，我們預計在 2025 年將再創佳績。然而，[綠色財富]產品的 AUM 到 2024 年將成長 65%，達到 90 億美元以上。全球範圍內對凱雷解決方案的需求強勁。我們增加了新的經銷合作夥伴，預計我們的新私募股權產品將於 2025 年下半年推出。

Now, moving on to Global Private Equity, I want to highlight the performance of our two latest US buyout funds. Performance in these two funds appreciated 15% and 21%, respectively, in 2024. That is more than $5 billion of value creation. It's a fantastic year for these two funds. Activity levels are accelerated across our US buyout franchise over the past year.

現在，談到全球私募股權，我想強調我們最新的兩個美國收購基金的表現。2024年，這兩檔基金的表現分別上漲15%和21%。這創造了超過 50 億美元的價值。對這兩檔基金來說，這是輝煌的一年。在過去的一年裡，我們在美國收購特許經營的業務活動水準有所提高。

We took StandardAero public and one of the most successful IPOs of the year. We also invested capital into leading businesses like Vantive, $4 billion carve-out of a leading global kidney care business, and Worldpac, $2 billion carve-out of a leading automotive equipment provider. We want to congratulate the team for driving value for all of our investors these funds, our firm, and our shareholders. It's really great to see.

我們帶領 StandardAero 上市，這是今年最成功的 IPO 之一。我們也向一些領先企業進行了資本投資，例如 Vantive（以 40 億美元分拆自一家全球領先的腎臟護理企業）和 Worldpac（以 20 億美元分拆自一家領先的汽車設備供應商）。我們要祝賀團隊為我們所有的投資者、這些基金、我們的公司和我們的股東創造價值。看到這真是太好了。

Switching to Real Estate, our leading US real estate franchise is finalizing its latest opportunistic fund. We expect this fund to close larger than its predecessor. The AUM and this business has increased more than 80% over the past four years, and the team has done an extraordinary job navigating the real estate market. Really impressive.

轉向房地產，我們領先的美國房地產特許經營權正在敲定其最新的機會基金。我們預計該基金的募集規模將超過其前身。在過去四年中，AUM 和這項業務成長了 80% 以上，而且該團隊在房地產市場中表現非常出色。確實令人印象深刻。

Before I turn over to John, let me give you some thoughts on the broader macro environment. We have unique insights into the global economy through data from our investment portfolio, and the indicators remain positive around economic growth and employment. This reinforces our perspective that interest rates will stay higher for longer.

在把話題轉交給約翰之前，讓我先談談對更廣泛的宏觀環境的一些看法。我們透過投資組合的數據對全球經濟有了獨到的見解，經濟成長和就業方面的指標仍然保持樂觀。這強化了我們的觀點：利率將在較長時間內維持在高點。

This should spur new investment activity regardless of the amount of future monetary using by the Fed and other major central banks. Now, with respect to the new administration, our roots in DC are particularly helpful here. We have a long history of working through various cycles, administration, and legislative priorities. We have mobilized the team as we evaluate changes in policy and regulatory action.

無論聯準會和其他主要央行未來使用多少貨幣，這都將刺激新的投資活動。現在，對於新政府來說，我們在華盛頓特區的根基尤其有幫助。我們在處理各種週期、行政和立法優先事項方面有著長期的經驗。我們已經動員團隊來評估政策和監管行動的變化。

The new administration promotes a pro-growth and pro-business agenda which broadly supports our portfolio and global economic activity. On tariffs, [we're] getting a lot of attention, situation remains fluid, but the majority of our portfolio is either domestically focused or more services-oriented versus goods, insulating it well from the impact of tariffs.

新政府推行有利於成長和有利於商業的議程，廣泛支持我們的投資組合和全球經濟活動。在關稅問題上，我們受到了很多關注，情況仍然不穩定，但我們的投資組合大部分都是以國內市場為重點，或者更多地以服務業為主，而非商品，因此可以很好地抵禦關稅的影響。

Nearly 80% of our Global Private Equity portfolio is US based. And though it is early days, anticipate very manageable impact across the portfolio, but continue to monitor closely, obviously. On regulation, we feel that the regulation will be an overall positive for all market participants, and again, pro-growth, pro-business.

我們的全球私募股權投資組合中近 80% 位於美國。儘管現在還為時過早，但預計對整個投資組合的影響將非常可控，但顯然仍需繼續密切關注。在監管方面，我們認為監管對於所有市場參與者來說總體上都是有利的，而且有利於成長，有利於商業。

In conclusion, we wrapped up a solid 2024 and we anticipate a strong year of investment activity, realizations, and fundraising in '25. John will provide specific color on our 2025 outlook and all the work we've done in helping position Carlyle for continued long-term growth. With all of it, we're confident that we can further build on our progress in the years ahead.

總而言之，我們結束了堅實的 2024 年，並預計 2025 年將是投資活動、實現和籌款強勁的一年。約翰將具體闡述我們的 2025 年展望以及我們為幫助凱雷實現長期持續成長所做的所有工作。有了這一切，我們相信我們能夠在未來幾年取得更大的進步。

With that, let me now turn the call over to John.

說完這些，我現在把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Harvey. Good morning, everyone. Let's start with our results. We generated $1.5 billion in DE for the year, or $3.66 in DE per share. Fee-related earnings of $287 million in the fourth quarter, and $1.1 billion for the full year were both records.

謝謝，哈維。大家早安。讓我們從結果開始。我們全年的 DE 收入為 15 億美元，即每股 DE 收入 3.66 美元。第四季費用相關獲利 2.87 億美元，全年費用相關獲利 11 億美元，均創下歷史新高。

FRE increased nearly 30% in 2024. And our full-year FRE margin of 46% increased nearly 900 basis points year over year. Clearly, we delivered on all of our 2024 financial targets. Notably, we delivered record FRE, while also investing for growth in key areas across our platform.

2024 年 FRE 將成長近 30%。我們的全年 FRE 利潤率為 46%，較去年同期成長近 900 個基點。顯然，我們實現了所有 2024 年財務目標。值得注意的是，我們實現了創紀錄的 FRE，同時也投資於我們平台關鍵領域的成長。

We increased the size of our Global Wealth distribution team by more than a third this year, and the business itself grew assets under management by 65%. In our asset-backed finance business, our team grew by nearly 30%.

今年，我們的全球財富分銷團隊規模擴大了三分之一以上，業務本身的管理資產增加了 65%。在資產支援金融業務方面，我們的團隊成長了近30%。

We will continue to scale platforms where we see significant opportunity for growth. We had strong performance revenue in transaction fees, which more than doubled to $164 million. As Harvey mentioned, our Capital Markets business remains an important growth driver for Carlyle.

我們將繼續擴大具有巨大成長機會的平台。我們的交易費收入表現強勁，成長了一倍多，達到 1.64 億美元。正如哈維所說，我們的資本市場業務仍然是凱雷的重要成長動力。

Our focus in investment in this area led to record levels of transaction fees in 2024, which we accomplished even as broader market activity levels remained well below that of prior years. While transaction fees may vary quarter to quarter, over time we expect this [earnest] stream to continue to expand.

我們專注於這一領域的投資，使得 2024 年的交易費用達到了創紀錄的水平，儘管整體市場活動水平仍遠低於前幾年，但我們仍然實現了這一目標。雖然交易費用可能每季都有所不同，但隨著時間的推移，我們預計這一[誠意]流將繼續擴大。

We saw a nearly 40% increase in Global Investment Solutions management fees, and a 9% increase in Global Credit management fees, while Global Private Equity declined 7%.

我們發現全球投資解決方案管理費增加了近 40%，全球信貸管理費增加了 9%，而全球私募股權管理費下降了 7%。

We expect continued growth in Global Credit and Global Investment Solutions in 2025 in a more modest decline in Global Private Equity. We expect growth and private equity to resume as we progress through our next US buyout fundraise. We also ended here with $23 billion in pending fee-earning AUM across our platform, up nearly 50% year over year. The management fee contribution from activating this pending AUM is close to $200 million annually.

我們預計，2025 年全球信貸和全球投資解決方案將持續成長，而全球私募股權將溫和下降。我們預計，隨著我們下一輪美國收購融資的進展，成長和私募股權將會恢復。我們平台的待收費資產管理規模達到 230 億美元，較去年同期成長近 50%。啟動該待定 AUM 所產生的管理費貢獻每年接近 2 億美元。

Our FRE cash compensation ratio improved to 36% in 2024, down from 45% in the prior year. This improvement was a direct outcome of our strategic compensation realignment that we implemented last year, as well as continued scaling of our platform. We are well on our way to achieving a compensation ratio of 35% or less.

我們的 FRE 現金補償率從前一年的 45% 提高到 2024 年的 36%。這項改善是我們去年實施的策略性薪酬調整以及平台持續擴展的直接結果。我們正在穩步實現 35% 或更低的補償率。

Activity levels increased across the platform, with strong inflows of more than $14 billion in the fourth quarter and nearly $41 billion for the year. This was our third best fundraising year ever. Deployment increased nearly 50% versus 2023 with Global Credit. Corporate Private Equity and secondary showing the most acceleration. With $84 billion in dry powder, we're well positioned for increased investment activity.

整個平台的活動水準不斷提高，第四季流入資金強勁，超過 140 億美元，全年流入資金接近 410 億美元。這是我們有史以來募款成績第三好的一年。與 2023 年相比，Global Credit 的部署增加了近 50%。企業私募股權和二級市場表現出最快的加速。我們擁有 840 億美元的現金儲備，可以為增加投資活動做好準備。

In terms of exits, Corporate Private Equity realized proceeds nearly doubled from the prior year. We completed four portfolio company sales in the fourth quarter and sold nearly $2 billion in public securities, including proceeds from the IPOs of StandardAero in the US and Rigaku in Japan. Additionally, there are several exits in process.

在退出方面，企業私募股權投資實現的收益比前一年增長了近一倍。我們在第四季度完成了四家投資組合公司的銷售，並出售了近 20 億美元的公開證券，其中包括美國 StandardAero 和日本 Rigaku 首次公開募股的收益。此外，還有幾項退出措施正在進行中。

And in US buyout, our largest and most profitable fund strategy, we created meaningful value for our LPs in 2024. We also distributed $5.3 billion in proceeds back to US buyout investors throughout the year and generated nearly $600 million of net accrued performance revenues in our two most recent US buyout funds.

在美國收購中，這是我們最大、最賺錢的基金策略，我們在 2024 年為我們的 LP 創造了有意義的價值。我們也全年向美國收購投資者發放了 53 億美元的收益，並在我們最近的兩檔美國收購基金中產生了近 6 億美元的淨應計業績收入。

Moving on, let me turn to our 2025 outlook. We expect 2025 to be a year of growth and increased investment across our core businesses, including Global Wealth, Global Credit, and Solutions. We expect FRE to increase 6% compared to 2024. However, we do see the potential for upside, driven both by opportunities and market environment.

接下來，讓我來談談我們的 2025 年展望。我們預計 2025 年將是我們核心業務（包括全球財富、全球信貸和解決方案）成長和投資增加的一年。我們預計 FRE 將比 2024 年成長 6%。然而，我們確實看到了上漲的潛力，這既受到機會的推動，也受到市場環境的推動。

We expect 2025 FRE margin to be at a similar level to that of 2024. We will update you as we progress throughout the year. We expect inflows in 2025 to be similar to 2024 levels. Credit is once again poised to raise the most capital across our platform, and we have a diversified fundraising pipeline across all segments.

我們預計 2025 年的 FRE 利潤率將與 2024 年保持相似的水平。我們將隨時向您通報全年進度。我們預計 2025 年的流入量將與 2024 年的水準相似。信貸再次準備好在我們的平台上籌集最多的資金，並且我們在所有領域都擁有多元化的融資管道。

In closing, we enter 2025 with conviction in the direction of our overall platform. We will continue to invest into areas where we see the most opportunity to drive continued long-term shareholder value, and we remain focused on delivering great investment outcomes for our investors.

最後，我們對整個平台的發展方向充滿信心，並將邁入 2025 年。我們將繼續投資於我們認為最有機會推動長期股東價值的領域，並繼續致力於為我們的投資者提供出色的投資成果。

Now, let me turn the call over to the operator so we can take your questions.

現在，讓我將電話轉給接線員，以便我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Alexander Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷山大‧布洛斯坦 (Alexander Blostein)。

Thank you for taking the question. So, appreciate the guidance, good color, how you guys are thinking about 2025. I was hoping we kind of pack that a little bit. So I heard your comments in Growth and Credit and Solutions, offset by a more modest decline in Global Private Equity. What are some of the bigger drivers in credit that you guys see for 2025 and solutions that will drive some of that growth?

感謝您回答這個問題。因此，感謝您的指導，很好的色彩，以及您對 2025 年的看法。我希望我們能稍微打包一下。因此，我聽到了您在成長與信貸和解決方案方面的評論，但全球私募股權的溫和下滑抵消了這一影響。你們認為 2025 年信貸成長的主要動力有哪些？

And as you think about the Global Private Equity business, can you help us unpack perhaps the timing of when you expect to come back to market with the next election fund?

當您考慮全球私募股權業務時，能否幫助我們解釋一下您預計何時帶著下一個選舉基金重返市場？

Yeah, Alex, hey, it's John. Look, in terms of the 6% FRE growth, I would describe this as a base case for us. This is the number we have a high degree of confidence around, but I think importantly, it reflects us aggressively in businesses where we see growth, Wealth, Credit, Solutions, and we're much more focused on delivering long-term growth and investing in the business will enable us to deliver long-term growth.

是的，亞歷克斯，嘿，我是約翰。從 6% 的 FRE 成長來看，我會將此描述為我們的基本情況。我們對這個數字非常有信心，但我認為更重要的是，它反映了我們在成長、財富、信貸、解決方案等業務上的積極進取，我們更加重視實現長期成長，對業務的投資將使我們能夠實現長期成長。

We are far more focused on the growth aspect of our business than delivering kind of short-term FRE. So you should understand that 6% in the context of us, we are investing aggressively in businesses where we see growth. And what does that mean? You look at the head count increase we had in Wealth last year is pretty significant. It'll actually be north of that in 2025. We think head count will grow more than 50%.

我們更關注業務的成長面，而不是提供短期的FRE。所以你應該明白，對我們來說，6%是指我們正在積極投資那些我們看到成長的業務。那是什麼意思呢？你看，去年我們財富部門的員工人數增加是相當可觀的。到 2025 年，這一高度實際上將高於該高度。我們認為員工數量將增加50%以上。

We're investing a lot of money in our asset-backed business, which we also did last year, and our Solutions business. We do see some upside to our 6% FRE, and I think there are a lot of drivers of that, but I'll just highlight a couple. Wealth growth accelerates faster than we anticipate. I do think Capital Markets fees could be a positive surprise.

我們正在向資產支援業務（去年也這麼做了）和解決方案業務投入大量資金。我們確實看到了 6% 的 FRE 有一些上行空間，而且我認為有很多驅動因素，但我只強調其中幾個。財富成長的速度比我們預期的還要快。我確實認為資本市場費用可能會帶來驚喜。

And I think Insurance flows, there are a lot of conversations going on in Insurance, more conversations today than I've seen since I've been CFO, so I do expect to see some Insurance flows. That is a net positive. And I do think Credit growth could surprise us on the positive. So I think there are some upsides.

我認為保險流程，保險領域正在進行大量對話，今天的對話比我擔任財務長以來所見過的還要多，所以我確實希望看到一些保險流程。這是淨收益。我確實認為信貸成長可能會給我們帶來正面的驚喜。所以我認為還是有一些好處的。

In terms of Credit specifically, we're continuing to see good, very strong growth in our asset-backed business, as Harvey alluded to in his prepared remarks. This is a massive, massive market. You see stats all over the place, but let's just say it's $20 trillion-plus. So I do think you'll see some growth in asset-backed.

具體到信貸方面，正如哈維在其準備好的演講中所提到的那樣，我們繼續看到資產支持業務良好、強勁的成長。這是一個極為龐大的市場。到處都可以看到統計數據，但我們就假設這個數字超過 20 兆美元。因此我確實認為你會看到資產支持方面有所成長。

We raised a significantly larger third credit opportunistic fund, [except] materially from the predecessor, and I do think our CLO business will continue to see some headwinds in the front part of 2025, but I do think 2025 could be a positive surprise.

我們籌集了規模大得多的第三信貸機會基金，（除了）實質上來自前任，我確實認為我們的 CLO 業務將在 2025 年初繼續面臨一些阻力，但我確實認為 2025 年可能會是一個積極的驚喜。

That team had an amazing 2024. Incredibly active after a couple of years of relatively limited activity. And the other big driver within Credit, Alex, is CTAC, which is our retail wealth product in Credit. So, feel very good about the trajectory of our Credit business.

那支球隊在 2024 年表現出色。經過幾年相對有限的活動後，現在變得異常活躍。亞歷克斯，信貸領域的另一個重要動力是 CTAC，這是我們信貸領域的零售財富產品。因此，我們對我們的信貸業務的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

This is Brendan O'Brien filling in for Steven. I guess I just want to talk on the buybacks. You guys were obviously really aggressive in repurchasing shares this year, but when you announced the authorization, Harvey, you indicated that you would expect repurchases to accelerate alongside realization activity.

這是布倫丹‧奧布萊恩 (Brendan O'Brien)，取代史蒂文。我想我只是想談談回購。你們今年顯然非常積極地回購股票，但是當你宣布授權時，哈維，你表示你預計回購將隨著變現活動而加速。

And so given your more optimistic outlook for realizations, it'd be helpful to get an update as to how you're thinking about capital return and whether you would still expect to accelerate the buyback, and how you're thinking about the balance versus investing in some of the growth opportunities John just discussed and returning capital to shareholders.

因此，鑑於您對實現目標更為樂觀的前景，了解您對資本回報的看法以及是否仍希望加速回購，以及您如何考慮平衡與投資約翰剛才討論的一些增長機會並向股東返還資本，這將會很有幫助。

Yeah, so last year we did -- we announced a $1.4 billion share repurchase program in 2024. We repurchased roughly 12 million shares, so [500] cost [$550 million]. So we have [$850 million] left on the authorization. We still view a stock buyback as a very attractive form of returning capital to our shareholders. You should assume we will be active in 2025.

是的，去年我們宣布了 2024 年 14 億美元的股票回購計畫。我們回購了大約 1200 萬股，因此 [500] 的成本[5.5億美元]。因此我們的授權金額還剩下[8.5億美元]。我們仍然認為股票回購是向股東返還資本的一種非常有吸引力的方式。你應該假設我們將在 2025 年活躍起來。

I think it's also important to note, for the first time in Carlyle's public history, which is roughly 12 years, the last two years, we've actually shrank our share count year over year, which I think is a real positive, but we will continue to evaluate capital allocation on the spectrum. And how do I think about capital allocation? I can buy back stock. I can invest in our businesses for growth, and we can do M&A.

我認為還需要注意的是，在凱雷上市大約 12 年的歷史上，過去兩年中，我們的股票數量實際上首次逐年減少，我認為這是一個非常積極的方面，但我們將繼續評估資本配置。我該如何考慮資本配置？我可以回購股票。我可以投資我們的業務以促進成長，我們也可以進行併購。

I like returning capital to shareholders via the buyback. We will continue to do that, but we are also balancing that with aggressively investing in the business to deliver long-term growth. But you should assume we still view our stock price as attractive, and we will be repurchasing stock.

我喜歡透過回購向股東返還資本。我們將繼續這樣做，但我們也會在積極投資業務以實現長期成長的同時，保持平衡。但你應該假設我們仍然認為我們的股價具有吸引力，而且我們將會回購股票。

Great, thank you for taking my question.

太好了，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

戴維特 (Patrick Davitt)，自主研究。

The negative mark in fee paying assets under management was kind of outsized relative to the reported positive 3% mark. So is that a reflection of a negative Fortitude mark? And if so, is there a potential for you to move off of a mark to market fee base there like some others have?

相對於報告的 3% 正值，管理費用支付資產的負值有點過大。那麼，這是 Fortitude 標記負面的反映嗎？如果是這樣，您是否有可能像其他人一樣，擺脫以市價計費的基礎？

Yeah, so, I'll look at fee-earning AUM and let's talk more about the fourth quarter versus the year. And the fourth quarter -- look, you clearly had some realizations which decrease that number, but realizations are good in our business in the sense we're giving capital back to our LPs. Our cap -- our LPs like to see capital return. So you did see some realization activity, certainly much more elevated relative to last year.

是的，因此，我將研究收費業務的 AUM，並進一步討論第四季與全年的情況。而在第四季度，你看，顯然有一些實現減少了這個數字，但從我們將資本返還給我們的 LP 的意義上來說，實現對我們的業務來說是好的。我們的上限——我們的 LP 希望看到資本回報。因此，您確實看到了一些實現活動，肯定比去年要高得多。

But the fourth quarter, it had some noise, and when I say noise, I mean really kind of non-economic impact. And what would that be? We had a $6 billion mark to market in credit market activity, which is really the result of the movement in the 10-year at Fortitude. That really has no economic impact to the firm, so that I would view that as noise.

但第四季出現了一些噪音，當我說噪音時，我指的是真正的非經濟影響。那會是什麼？我們在信貸市場活動中的市值為 60 億美元，這實際上是 Fortitude 10 年期變動的結果。這實際上對公司沒有經濟影響，所以我認為這只是噪音。

And we also had $3 billion of excess movement -- or FX movement in the quarter. So that's roughly $9 billion of really no financial impact to the firm. That's a lot of noise in the quarter. That would have had you up a bit. Realization activities brought you down. But I think you should also focus in on we have $23 billion of pending fee-earning AUM. That's up 50% compared to the prior year. That will turn on throughout the year, and that's roughly $200 million of annual run rate revenue. But again, a lot of noise in the fourth quarter of fee-earning AUM.

本季度，我們還有 30 億美元的超額變動，或者說外匯變動。所以這大約 90 億美元對公司來說實際上沒有財務影響。本季有很多噪音。那可能會讓你有點不高興。實現活動讓你失望了。但我認為你也應該關注我們還有 230 億美元的待定收費收入 AUM。與上年相比，成長了 50%。這項服務將全年運營，每年的運營收入約為 2 億美元。但第四季的費用收入AUM再次出現了許多噪音。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的布萊恩‧貝德爾 (Brian Bedell)。

Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just to talk about maybe G&A expense a little bit, and maybe if you just comment a little bit on the increase in the fourth quarter. And then thinking about the investment for 2025 and some of the businesses.

感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是談論一下 G&A 費用，也許你只是對第四季度的成長稍微評論一下。然後考慮2025年的投資和一些業務。

Maybe if you can talk about the two or three biggest areas that -- I think you cited retail and the asset-backed business as well, but if you can comment on how you're thinking initially about G&A expenses during the year.

也許您可以談論兩個或三個最大的領域——我想您也提到了零售和資產支援業務，但如果您可以評論您對今年的 G&A 費用的初步看法。

And are you still investing in the Capital Markets platform or do you see the incremental margins there? The investment is mostly being complete and the incremental margins therefore being much higher in the Cap Markets.

您仍在投資資本市場平台？投資基本上已經完成，因此資本市場的增量利潤率要高得多。

Yeah, hey, it's John, thanks for the question. I'll start with the G&A question. Look, I'd say overall, we're focused on running the firm efficiently and I think it shows. G&A expense in 2023 was up 2%, G&A expense in 2024 was up 4%. So I think those are pretty good numbers in terms of running the firm efficiently.

是的，嘿，我是約翰，謝謝你的提問。我將從 G&A 問題開始。看，我想說總的來說，我們專注於高效運營公司，我認為這表明了這一點。2023 年 G&A 費用上漲 2%，2024 年 G&A 費用上漲 4%。因此我認為，就公司高效運作而言，這些數字相當不錯。

We expected fourth-quarter G&A expense to be elevated. There's some seasonality in that elevation of G&A expense in the fourth quarter. And if you go back and look at our G&A numbers the last three or four years, the fourth quarter is always a little bit elevated relative to the previous three quarters.

我們預計第四季的一般及行政開支將會增加。第四季 G&A 費用的上升有一定的季節性。如果回顧過去三、四年的一般及行政開支數字，就會發現第四季度的一般及行政開支總是比前三個季度略高。

But we also had -- we had some one-off items in the fourth quarter this year. We had some fundraising expenses in the fourth quarter that were related to some direct lending money we raised in our Japan buyout fundraise, which was super successful, and those are -- I would not describe those as recurring.

但今年第四季我們也有一些一次性項目。我們在第四季度有一些籌款費用，這些費用與我們在日本收購融資中籌集的一些直接貸款資金有關，這筆資金非常成功，我不會將這些資金描述為經常性費用。

And we had some unfavorable FX impact which -- that kind of moves up and down over time. So I don't look at the fourth quarter in -- I don't draw any kind of operating trend conclusions from the elevated fourth-quarter level. I think we've done a good job of kind of controlling G&A expense in the into the 2% to 4%. In terms of kind of looking forward in terms of the FRE guidance we provided, I do see Q1 being more similar to Q4 this year. And then I think throughout the year, you'll see an acceleration in that FRE growth.

我們受到了一些不利的外匯影響，這種影響隨著時間的推移而上下波動。因此，我不會關注第四季度——我不會根據第四季度的高水準得出任何營運趨勢結論。我認為我們在將 G&A 費用控制在 2% 到 4% 之間方面做得很好。就我們提供的 FRE 指導而言，我確實認為今年第一季與第四季度更為相似。然後我認為全年你會看到 FRE 成長加速。

The other part of your question, Brian, is where are we investing the money and I alluded to a little bit of it in my prepared remarks. We are clearly investing in Wealth, and that's largely head count. That head count will be up 50%, at least in 2025.

布萊恩，你問題的另一部分是我們將錢投資到哪裡，我在準備好的演講中提到了一點。我們顯然是在投資財富，而且主要是投資人數。至少到 2025 年，該數量將增加 50%。

We're investing in Credit. We see very strong growth in Credit. We expect that directory to continue. You look at our Solutions business, it grew organically 40%-plus this year. That's going to require some investment, which is really great to see. And in Japan, our Japan buyout had tremendous success raising money and we need to invest some more money there.

我們正在投資信貸。我們看到信貸成長非常強勁。我們期望該目錄能夠繼續存在。看看我們的解決方案業務，今年其有機成長了 40% 以上。這將需要一些投資，這確實是令人高興的。在日本，我們在日本的收購在籌集資金方面取得了巨大成功，我們需要在那裡投資更多資金。

So I would say -- I would describe the way we're thinking about aggressively investing is we're investing in businesses where we see growth, and businesses, quite frankly, where growth is less evident in the near term, we're not making investments.

所以我想說——我會描述我們對積極投資的想法是，我們投資於那些我們看到成長的企業，坦白說，那些短期內成長不太明顯的企業，我們不會進行投資。

Brian McKenna, Citizens JMP.

布萊恩·麥肯納 (Brian McKenna)，公民 JMP。

So I had a question on the BDC merger. Can you remind us what the incremental fees are to CG post-merger and when those will turn on. And then that vehicle will have north of $2 billion of assets. So how should we think about growth of the combined BDC as well as the broader direct lending platform moving forward?

我對 BDC 合併有一個疑問。您能否提醒我們合併後公司總公司的增量費用是多少以及何時開始收取？那麼，該工具的資產規模將超過20億美元。那麼，我們應該如何看待合併後的 BDC 以及更廣泛的直接借貸平台的未來發展呢？

Yeah, so we haven't disclosed the impact. It will be a positive impact to management fees and FRE. I wouldn't describe it as a material impact to our credit business, but it's a positive. It's good to see that BDC merger will close late in Q1, early Q2. Everything's on track in terms of the BDC.

是的，所以我們還沒有透露影響。這將對管理費和FRE產生正面影響。我不會認為這會對我們的信貸業務產生重大影響，但它是正面的影響。很高興看到 BDC 合併將在第一季末和第二季初完成。就 BDC 而言，一切進展順利。

Look, in terms of direct lending, we actually had pretty good growth in 2024. That's an area where I actually didn't touch on in terms of where we're investing, but we are investing in our direct lending business. Performance has been really strong, and we are investing in that business as well.

從直接貸款方面來看，我們在 2024 年實際上實現了相當不錯的成長。就我們的投資而言，我實際上沒有涉及這個領域，但我們正在投資直接貸款業務。業績表現非常強勁，我們也在對該業務進行投資。

But you look at our direct lending business relative to some of our peers, we don't have quite the scale our peers do. So I really view that as upside. There's no reason why with a brand like Carlyle, our direct lending business is not significantly larger than it is today, and we're making investments in that area of Credit to make it a more scaled business.

但如果你看看我們的直接貸款業務，相對於我們的一些同行，我們的規模並不像同行那麼大。因此我確實認為這是有利的。有了凱雷這樣的品牌，我們的直接貸款業務沒有理由不比現在擴大很多，而且我們正在對信貸領域進行投資，使其成為一項更具規模的業務。

Got it. Thanks, John.

知道了。謝謝，約翰。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore ISI。

Two quickies, follow ups to your earlier. In asset-backed line I'm just curious if you have dedicated strategies being formed yet or is this efforts within your insurance SMAs and credit -- overall Credit business. And then on investment solutions, I think your performance has been great. I'm just curious how you see the evolution and growth in perpetual products in that area and how that might impact growth and returns in the Solutions business going forward.

兩個快速動作，跟進你之前的動作。在資產支援線方面，我只是好奇您是否已經形成專門的策略，或者這是您在保險 SMA 和信貸（整體信貸業務）中的努力。在投資解決方案方面，我認為你們的表現非常出色。我只是好奇您如何看待該領域永久產品的發展和成長，以及這將如何影響未來解決方案業務的成長和回報。

On asset-backed, obviously, the asset-backed market which we highlighted as a large addressable market, and it's a market that's in evolution, which is the convergence of the demand for capital from end users and obviously a lot of what's happening across the globe in terms of insurance capital coming in. So it kind of really hits a sweet spot for us in terms of growth.

就資產支持而言，顯然，我們強調資產支持市場是一個巨大的潛在市場，這是一個正在發展的市場，它是最終用戶對資本的需求的融合，顯然是全球範圍內保險資本流入的諸多變化的融合。所以從成長的角度來看，這確實為我們帶來了一個最佳狀態。

There's a dedicated fund being raised, but of course, we've built this off of our affiliate partnership with Fortitude, so we've been doing this for a number of years. And so, as John mentioned, we also invested heavily in the team last year and we'll continue to grow.

我們正在籌集一個專項基金，但當然，這是我們透過與 Fortitude 的聯盟合作關係建立起來的，所以我們已經這樣做了很多年。正如約翰所提到的，我們去年也對團隊進行了大量的投資，我們將繼續發展。

In terms of the Solutions business, one of our fastest areas of growth, both institutionally and across wealth, and you'll see us, during the course of the year, continue to expand partnerships, and some of those -- or significant partnerships, but we can't speak to them specifically today, but that's our expectation. So again, a lot happening in that space and the performance and the trend and the breadth is pretty impressive.

就解決方案業務而言，這是我們成長最快的領域之一，無論是在機構層面還是在財富領域，您會看到，我們在今年繼續擴大合作夥伴關係，其中一些是重要的合作夥伴關係，但我們今天不能具體談論它們，但這是我們的期望。所以，該領域發生了很多事情，其表現、趨勢和廣度都令人印象深刻。

Ben Budish, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

John, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about your comp ratio expectations for the year. You said on the way to 35% or less. Just curious, what are the other key factors that determine the timing, I imagine some of this related to realizations, but what sort of embedded in your expectations for the 6% FRE guide?

約翰，我想知道您是否可以再多談談您對今年的薪酬比率預期。您說的是，將會達到 35% 或更低。只是好奇，決定時機的其他關鍵因素是什麼，我想其中一些與實現有關，但是對於 6% FRE 指南的預期中又包含哪些內容呢？

Yeah, so I -- there is obviously a large component of that, Ben, is realizations and that realized performance revenues. And look, we had a really strong 2024 in terms of realizations. And I do think as some of these funds where we're seeing realizations hit carry, you're going to see an acceleration for us in terms of net realized performance revenue, so that will be a positive.

是的，所以我 — — 本，顯然其中很大一部分是實現和實現的績效收入。從實現效果來看，我們在 2024 年取得了非常強勁的成績。而且我確實認為，隨著我們看到其中一些基金的實現達到預期，您將看到我們的淨實現業績收入加速成長，所以這將是一個積極因素。

Look, we gave it 30% to 35% range in in February of 2023. I knew it would take us a couple of years to get to that range. We got to a number last year better than I anticipated, 36%. I think 35% is eminently doable, but we'll get there. We'll get there naturally. I do need net realized performance revenues and we will rely on that versus thinking about like cutting expenses. We're much more focused on growth. But we'll grow into that number, and we'll benefit from net realized performance revenues.

你看，我們在 2023 年 2 月給出了 30% 到 35% 的範圍。我知道我們需要幾年的時間才能達到這個範圍。去年我們的數字比我預期的要好，為 36%。我認為 35% 是完全可行的，但我們會達到這個目標。我們自然就會到達那裡。我確實需要淨實現績效收入，我們將依賴它，而不是考慮削減開支。我們更加關注成長。但我們會成長到這個數字，並且我們將受益於淨實現績效收入。

Got it, thank you.

知道了，謝謝。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

So a couple of questions on Credit, curious as to why the management fees declined sequentially in the fourth quarter than obviously a very large transaction fee. You talked about investing in that business and scaling. So can you talk about the sustainability and outlook for transaction fees in that segment within Global Credit?

因此，我有幾個關於信貸的問題，好奇為什麼第四季的管理費會環比下降，而交易費顯然大幅下降。您談到了對該業務的投資和擴大規模。那麼您能談談全球信貸領域交易費用的可持續性和前景嗎？

Yeah, so we actually just put the Capital Markets transaction fees in the Credit business. It's really spread. The fees are generated across the platform. So, three years ago that was a largely private equity related earning stream. Today it's far more diversified. It's across Credit, and it's across Infrastructure, and it's across Corporate Private Equity, but we report that segment largely in Credit. So think of it more as something that we generate across the platform.

是的，所以我們實際上只是將資本市場交易費用放入信貸業務中。確實蔓延了。這些費用是在整個平台上產生的。所以，三年前這主要是與私募股權相關的收入來源。如今，它的多樣化程度已經大大提高。它涉及信貸、基礎設施和企業私募股權，但我們主要在信貸中報告該部分。所以，你可以把它想像成我們在整個平台上產生的東西。

But in terms of trajectory of credit, we feel very good. We have a lot of the businesses -- every business in Credit is growing, with the exception of the CLO business. In the CLO business, we had a little bit of market headwinds as a result of 2023 -- 2022 and 2023, where you just had no activity, and we made up for that this year. We had a tremendous level of activity, but management fees in that business were down an immaterial amount, but the rest of credit is growing, and we feel exceptionally good about the trajectory of Credit looking forward.

但從信用軌跡來看，我們感覺非常好。我們有很多業務——除 CLO 業務外，信貸中的每項業務都在成長。在 CLO 業務中，由於 2023 年（2022 年和 2023 年）我們遇到了一些市場阻力，當時我們沒有任何活動，但我們今年彌補了這一點。我們的活動量非常大，但該業務的管理費用下降幅度不大，而其餘信貸業務卻在成長，我們對未來信貸的發展軌跡感到非常樂觀。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨（Bill Katz），TD Cowen 公司。

John, sorry to go back on this, but I'm just trying to unpack your comments about the fee-paying AUM dynamics in the quarter. You mentioned they should have no economic impact, but I'm just trying to understand that since it's a fee-paying AUM discussion, just sort of walk me through again why the $6 billion decline in fee-paying AUM will not have an economic impact looking ahead?

約翰，很抱歉再次談論這個問題，但我只是想解讀一下你對本季度付費 AUM 動態的評論。您提到它們不應該產生經濟影響，但我只是想知道，既然這是關於付費 AUM 的討論，請再告訴我一下，為什麼付費 AUM 減少 60 億美元不會對未來產生經濟影響？

Yeah, so the -- it will have a very minor economic impact in the sense. The way the agreement with fortitude works is we get paid on the level of assets, and there's an -- this resulted in an immaterial decline in those assets, but the impact to 2025 is literally a couple million dollars, so it's largely -- in my book, it's immaterial.

是的，從某種意義上來說，它對經濟的影響將非常小。與 Fortitude 達成的協議的運作方式是，我們根據資產水平獲得報酬，這導致這些資產略有下降，但對 2025 年的影響實際上是數百萬美元，所以在很大程度上——在我看來，這是無關緊要的。

Okay. So it's more the fee rate associated with those assets at play?

好的。那麼，這更多的是與這些資產相關的費率在起作用嗎？

The fee rate is not impacted by the market activity.

費率不受市場活動的影響。

Right, okay, thank you.

好的，好的，謝謝你。

Ken Worthington, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

You have $500 million of net accrued carry in CP7. The fund is still hovering around 8% IRR. Given the investments in the ground and some of the recent, I'll call it, successful partial realizations, how confident are you that 7 can remain above the [hurdle] rate and collect that that accrued carry? And then along the same lines CAP V and Step 5 IRRs fell a bit during the quarter. Can you talk about sort of marks and exits and how those weighed on this quarter's results for those funds?

您在 CP7 中有 5 億美元的淨應計收益。該基金的內部報酬率仍徘徊在 8% 左右。考慮到地面投資和最近的一些（我稱之為）成功的部分實現，您對 7 能夠保持高於 [最低] 收益率並收回應計收益有多大信心？然後，同樣，CAP V 和 Step 5 IRR 在本季度略有下降。您能否談談這些標記和退出情況以及這些對這些基金本季業績的影響？

Yeah, hey, Ken, it's John. Look, I feel very good about the progress we're making in our US Private Equity business. Harvey referenced the appreciation and our two most recent buyout funds in 15%, 20%. I think it was a great year. The value creation in that business was $5 billion. So we're moving in the right direction, specifically on CP7. I would say we're very pleased with the performance in CP7. It's improved dramatically over the last 12 months, and in looking forward, we feel very good that that trajectory will continue.

是的，嘿，肯，我是約翰。看，我對我們在美國私募股權業務中取得的進展感到非常滿意。哈維提到了升值，我們最近的兩檔收購基金分別上漲了 15% 和 20%。我認為這是偉大的一年。該業務創造的價值為 50 億美元。因此我們正朝著正確的方向前進，特別是在 CP7 上。我想說我們對 CP7 的表現非常滿意。在過去的 12 個月中，它有了顯著的改善，展望未來，我們非常高興地看到這種趨勢將會持續下去。

Carry's just not as simple as just overall performance level within the fund. It's also a function of how much money we've returned to LPs, but we are confident that that fund will hit carry.

Carry 並不像基金內的整體表現水準那麼簡單。這也取決於我們向 LP 返還了多少錢，但我們有信心該基金將實現盈利。

And then CAP and Step 5?

然後是 CAP 和步驟 5？

Yeah, I mean, look, CAP is a fantastic business. We had really good appreciation in that franchise. Most of the movement down in terms of performance was largely attributable to our public equities we hold and there's some volatility in public equities period all over the globe, but there's been more pronounced volatility in public equities in China, and that that really drove a lot of the movement down.

是的，我的意思是，你看，CAP 是一家很棒的公司。我們對此系列的評價非常高。業績下滑的主因是我們持有的公開股票，全球各地的公開股票市場都存在一些波動，但中國的公開股票市場波動更為明顯，這確實導致了大部分業績下滑。

Okay. Great. Thanks very much.

好的。偉大的。非常感謝。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to ask about Global Private Equity. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about how you expect the pace and magnitude of deployment and realization activity to evolve her in 2025 in the context of at times volatile markets, higher [ten] yield treasury yields over the last six months of uncertainty around tariffs. How you expect these and other factors to play into getting deals done and how you see that cadence of activity playing out in terms of the first half versus the second half of the year?

感謝您回答這個問題。我只是想問一下全球私募股權的問題。我希望您能稍微談一談，在市場有時波動、過去六個月關稅不確定性導致 [10] 國債收益率走高的背景下，您預計 2025 年部署和實現活動的速度和規模將如何發展。您預計這些因素和其他因素將如何影響交易的達成？

Yeah, I would say, we still are positive leaning in terms of activity. I think when you look at M&A volumes last year, they were up kind of 20%, IPO volumes were up 50%, 60%. You saw us capitalize on the IPO markets opening with the StandardAERO, which was a very successful IPO, of Rigaku in Japan. So I think that's a positive that those markets are opening up.

是的，我想說，我們在活動方面仍然傾向於積極。我認為，當你看去年的併購交易量時，它們增長了 20%，IPO 交易量增長了 50% 或 60%。您看到我們利用了 IPO 市場的開放，例如日本 Rigaku 的 StandardAERO 的一次非常成功的 IPO。所以我認為這些市場的開放是一件正面的事情。

Look, base rates are up. They're up relative to three years ago, no doubt, but spreads remain tight. Your all-in financing costs, quite frankly, is still very attractive. Debt markets are pretty much wide open. So I think that's another positive.

你看，基準利率已經上升了。毫無疑問，與三年前相比，利差有所上升，但利差仍然較小。坦白說，您的全部融資成本仍然非常有吸引力。債務市場基本上是敞開的。所以我認為這是另一個積極因素。

And I think the other real positive is strategic buyers have become active again. And that is another positive catalyst. So when you look at what you need to have a conducive market to buy and sell assets, it's largely in place with what we're seeing. So we're very optimistic that 2025 will be a busy year on the realization front.

我認為另一個真正的積極因素是戰略買家已經再次變得活躍起來。這又是另一個積極的催化劑。因此，當你考慮需要一個有利於買賣資產的市場時，它基本上與我們所看到的情況相符。因此，我們非常樂觀地認為，2025 年將是實現目標的繁忙一年。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Kyle Voigt, KBW.

凱爾·沃格特（Kyle Voigt），KBW。

Maybe just another follow up on GPE. You mentioned some continued decline in management fees there until you raise your next US buyout fund. Just wondering if you could help us understand when you expect to begin fundraising. When we could expect a potential activation given the pace of deployment you're seeing in CP8? I'm assuming it's 2026, but if you could maybe narrow that down at all. Then how should we think about the size of CP9 relative to CP8 at $14.8 billion, particularly given the private equity fundraising backdrop?

也許只是對 GPE 的另一個後續行動。您提到，在你們籌集下一個美國收購基金之前，管理費會持續下降。只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您預計何時開始籌款。考慮到您在 CP8 中看到的部署速度，我們何時可以預期潛在的啟動？我假設是 2026 年，但如果您可以稍微縮小範圍的話。那麼，我們應該如何看待 CP9 相對於 CP8 的 148 億美元的規模，尤其是考慮到私募股權融資背景？

Yeah, so as I said in my remarks, GPE, Global Private Equity was down roughly 7% in 2024, and I also said we expect the rate of that decline to be meaningfully lower in 2025 than it was in 2024. So I think that's a positive.

是的，正如我在演講中所說，GPE，全球私募股權在 2024 年下降了約 7%，而且我還表示，我們預計 2025 年的下降率將比 2024 年明顯降低。所以我認為這是積極的。

We anticipate launching the most recent US buyout fund towards the back end of 2025 this year, and I can't really comment on the size, but we should be in the market in 2025, late 2025. And you will see a fee activation at some point in 2026, which will be the catalyst to see our Corporate Private Equity business return to a more positive trajectory.

我們預計今年將在 2025 年底推出最新的美國收購基金，我無法評論其規模，但我們應該會在 2025 年，也就是 2025 年底進入市場。您將在 2026 年的某個時候看到費用激活，這將成為我們的企業私募股權業務回歸更積極軌蹟的催化劑。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克布朗。

So wanted to just unpack the targets a little bit more. So the fundraising target, John, you shared some upbeat comments on Credit and also Fortitude. So I just wanted to clarify that the $40 billion or I guess, roughly kind of flat year over year, does that assume any contribution from potential blocks that could come from Fortitude? Or would that be kind of in the upside bucket that you referred to?

因此我只想進一步闡釋一下目標。因此，籌款目標，約翰，你對信貸和堅韌不拔發表了一些樂觀的評論。因此，我只想澄清一下，400 億美元，或者我猜，與去年同期相比大致持平，是否假設了 Fortitude 可能帶來的潛在區塊的貢獻？或者這屬於您所提到的上行趨勢嗎？

And then just on the management fees for -- within your FRE guidance, you talked about deposit tailwinds for transaction fees and included in there for [FRPR], so just in total, how should we think about that management fee growth potential relative to the 6% FRE growth?

然後僅在管理費方面 - 在您的 FRE 指導中，您談到了交易費的存款順風，並將其包含在 [FRPR] 中，那麼總的來說，我們應該如何看待相對於 6% FRE 增長的管理費增長潛力？

Yeah, so in terms of the Fortitude part of your question, that is not in our FRE 6% guidance. I would view any type of inflows into Fortitude to be additive to that growth rate we provided. So again, it's not in our base case. Look, in terms of management fee growth, again, I would unpack it via looking at the three businesses.

是的，就您問題的 Fortitude 部分而言，這不在我們的 FRE 6% 指導範圍內。我認為流入 Fortitude 的任何類型的資金都會對我們提供的成長率有所補充。所以再說一遍，這不符合我們的基本情況。至於管理費成長方面，我會再次透過觀察三項業務來分析。

We have very strong management fee growth looking forward in Solutions. Like it's not going to remain at the 45% level in perpetuity. That was obviously a blowout year, but we do expect strong growth going forward. We had very good growth in Credit, we expect that to continue.

我們期待解決方案的管理費將實現非常強勁的成長。就像它不會永遠保持在 45% 的水平一樣。那顯然是井噴的一年，但我們確實預計未來還會有強勁的成長。我們的信貸業務取得了非常好的成長，我們預計這種成長將會持續下去。

Again, the only area where we're really seeing any headwinds is within our Corporate Private Equity business. And that, again, that was down 7% in 2024. We think that decline will be significantly less in 2025, and we do see a path to that resuming a positive trajectory based on some fundraising in our most recent -- in our US buyout fund, which will launch this year.

再次，我們真正看到阻力的唯一領域是我們的企業私募股權業務。到 2024 年，這一數字將再次下降 7%。我們認為，到 2025 年，降幅將明顯縮小，而且根據我們最近的一些融資情況——將於今年推出的美國收購基金，我們確實看到了恢復積極軌蹟的道路。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

戴維特 (Patrick Davitt)，自主研究。

Thanks for the follow up. Hello, can you hear me?

感謝您的跟進。你好，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Just one more quick follow up on that, through the lens of your kind of broader realization commentary. I assume the 6% FRE growth is partially informed by a view that there will be a meaningful pickup in realizations in 2025. Did you give any more color around how you're thinking about that side of the FRE growth equation?

透過您更廣泛的實現評論的視角，再快速跟進一下這個問題。我認為 6% 的 FRE 成長部分是基於這樣一種觀點：2025 年實現率將顯著上升。您是否更詳細地闡述了您對 FRE 成長方程式這一側的看法？

Yeah, I would not describe our forecasts in our 6% FRE growth as our base case as assuming there's a substantial increase in realization activity. We do think realization activity levels will increase relative to 2024, but I would not describe our assumption in terms of how we thought about the 6% FRE growth to be a substantial pickup in realizations.

是的，我不會將我們對 6% FRE 成長的預測作為基本情況，因為假設實現活動大幅增加。我們確實認為實現活動水準將相對於 2024 年有所提高，但我不會從我們如何認為 6% 的 FRE 成長是實現的大幅回升的角度來描述我們的假設。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And with that, I will turn the call back to Dan Harris for final comments.

謝謝。最後，我將把電話轉回給丹哈里斯，請他發表最後的評論。

Yes, thank you for your time and interest in Carlyle today. Should you have any follow up questions, please reach out to Investor Relations, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

是的，感謝您今天抽出時間對卡萊爾表示關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與，現在您可以斷開連線了。