Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to The Carlyle Group second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加凱雷集團 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給您的發言人、投資者關係主管丹尼爾哈里斯 (Daniel Harris)。請繼續。

Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; and our Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Strategy, John Redett.

謝謝你，香農。早安，歡迎參加凱雷 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長哈維·施瓦茨 (Harvey Schwartz)；以及我們的財務長兼企業策略主管 John Redett。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is also available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast and a replay will be available.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和一份詳細的收益報告，這些內容也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。該電話會議正在網路直播，並將提供重播。

We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. We have provided a reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available.

我們將在今天的電話會議中提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施不應孤立地考慮或取代根據公認會計原則制定的措施。我們已在合理可用的範圍內，在收益報告中提供了這些措施與 GAAP 的調整表。

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated.

今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述並不保證未來的業績，不應過度依賴它們。這些陳述是基於當前管理層的預期，涉及固有風險和不確定性，包括我們10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中確定的風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與所示結果存在重大差異。

Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time. In order to ensure participation by all those on the call today, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for any additional follow-ups.

凱雷不承擔隨時更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。為了確保今天所有參加電話會議的人員都能參與，請只回答一個問題，然後返回隊列以獲取任何其他後續問題。

With that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給我們的執行長 Harvey Schwartz。

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The first half of '24 reflects strong momentum across our business. And as you can see when you look at it, this momentum truly clear in our results.

謝謝，丹。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。 24 年上半年反映了我們整個業務的強勁勢頭。正如您所看到的，這種勢頭在我們的結果中非常明顯。

For the first six months, we generated record FRE, record FRE margins, record assets under management and strong fundraising. Let me take a moment to talk about the current market activity. Obviously, we've all seen over the last few trading days and this morning, the market remains quite volatile.

前六個月，我們創造了創紀錄的 FRE、創紀錄的 FRE 利潤、創紀錄的管理資產和強勁的融資。讓我花點時間談談當前的市場活動。顯然，我們在過去幾個交易日和今天早上都看到，市場仍然相當波動。

From our perspective, it's important to take a big step back. When we look at our proprietary portfolio data, this is what we see. The trajectory for GDP, the expected Fed rate cuts this year, all the dynamics still tell us the underlying fundamentals support improving activity across our platform for the balance of the year.

從我們的角度來看，退一步很重要。當我們查看我們的專有投資組合數據時，這就是我們所看到的。 GDP 的軌跡、今年聯準會降息的預期以及所有動態仍然告訴我們，潛在的基本面支持我們平台上今年餘下時間活動的改善。

Now consistent with that, we've announced two large recent transactions and have others in the pipeline we expect to finalize soon. In asset-backed finance, we announced a landmark $10 billion transaction to acquire portfolio of loans from Discover Financial Services.

現在，與此一致的是，我們已經宣布了最近的兩筆大型交易，還有其他交易正在進行中，我們預計很快就會完成。在資產支援金融領域，我們宣布了一項具有里程碑意義的 100 億美元交易，從 Discover Financial Services 收購貸款組合。

This transaction is a great example of the intersection of our asset-backed finance capabilities, our credit and insurance businesses and our capital markets expertise all coming together to drive value for our clients and generate transaction fees.

這項交易是我們的資產支持融資能力、信貸和保險業務以及資本市場專業知識相結合的一個很好的例子，所有這些都匯聚在一起，為我們的客戶創造價值並產生交易費用。

As we've discussed, asset-backed finance is a critical provider of capital for the financial sector. There is a significant opportunity here to grow as we're in the early innings of a multitrillion dollar market opportunity, which we're well positioned for.

正如我們所討論的，資產支持金融是金融部門資本的重要提供者。這裡有一個重要的成長機會，因為我們正處於數兆美元市場機會的早期階段，我們已經做好了充分的準備。

On exits, we have a considerable pipeline of active IPO and sale processes underway. You just saw today, we announced the sale of our portfolio company, Cogentrix Energy, a leading power producer and the assets it manages at a valuation of nearly $3 billion. We expect exit activity in the second half of the year likely to be materially higher than the first half with several large transactions in our pipeline.

在退出方面，我們有大量正在進行的活躍 IPO 和銷售流程。您今天剛看到，我們宣佈出售我們的投資組合公司 Cogentrix Energy（一家領先的電力生產商）及其管理的資產，估值接近 30 億美元。我們預計下半年的退出活動可能會大幅高於上半年，因為我們正在醞釀幾筆大型交易。

Moving to fundraising. We raised $18 billion year-to-date and north of $40 billion over the last 12 months. We closed our fifth Japan buyout fund, saw strong inflows into our US real estate business and raised $5 billion in credit this quarter alone. This was our third best fundraising quarter on record for the credit business. And importantly, we're working towards our target of $40 billion for 2024.

轉向籌款。今年迄今為止，我們籌集了 180 億美元，過去 12 個月已籌集了 400 億美元以上。我們關閉了第五個日本收購基金，看到大量資金流入我們的美國房地產業務，光是本季就籌集了 50 億美元的信貸。這是我們信貸業務有史以來第三個最佳籌款季度。重要的是，我們正在努力實現 2024 年 400 億美元的目標。

Let me just quickly run you through some specific areas of activity across our business. I'm quite optimistic about where our business is today compared to a year ago. As I said, there's a lot of momentum across the franchise.

讓我快速向您介紹我們業務中的一些特定活動領域。與一年前相比，我對我們今天的業務狀況非常樂觀。正如我所說，整個系列都有很大的動力。

In Global Credit, we're well positioned to capitalize industry tailwinds and capture market share. In addition to the Discover Financial Services transaction, we saw strong activity in opportunistic and real asset credit strategies.

在全球信貸領域，我們處於有利地位，可以利用產業順風車並佔領市場份額。除了發現金融服務交易之外，我們還看到機會主義和實體資產信貸策略的強勁活動。

In our CLO business, we remain very active. The first six months of the year were the second busiest in our 20-year CLO history. We ended Q2 as the world's largest CLO manager and we feel quite good about the forward pipeline.

在我們的 CLO 業務中，我們仍然非常活躍。今年前六個月是我們 20 年 CLO 歷史上第二繁忙的月份。我們在第二季結束時成為全球最大的 CLO 管理公司，我們對未來的管道感到非常滿意。

Finally, in Global Investment Solutions, the activity levels remain quite high as we address the investment needs of our clients. We deployed $9 billion and raised $12 million over the last 12 months and continue to see attractive opportunities across secondaries and co-investments.

最後，在全球投資解決方案中，當我們滿足客戶的投資需求時，活動水準仍然很高。在過去 12 個月裡，我們部署了 90 億美元並籌集了 1,200 萬美元，並繼續在二級投資和聯合投資中看到有吸引力的機會。

In Global Wealth, our brand continues to resonate with our wealth adviser partners. CTAC, our private credit product, had a strong first half. And CAPM, our solutions wealth product, has significant momentum and has been added to several new wealth distribution platforms.

在全球財富領域，我們的品牌繼續與我們的財富顧問合作夥伴產生共鳴。我們的私人信貸產品 CTAC 上半年表現強勁。我們的解決方案財富產品CAPM勢頭強勁，已加入多個新的財富分配平台。

To wrap things up, our results this quarter reflect strong momentum across the firm as the environment continues to improve, which we believe it will, despite, as I said, recent market activity, Carlyle and our stakeholders are well positioned to benefit.

總而言之，我們本季的業績反映了隨著環境持續改善，整個公司的強勁勢頭，我們相信情況會持續改善，儘管正如我所說，最近的市場活動，凱雷和我們的利益相關者都處於有利地位。

With that, let me now turn the call over to John.

現在讓我把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Harvey. Good morning, everyone. We continue to see significant momentum across our platform and remain on track to achieve our 2024 financial targets. We achieved record AUM of $435 billion in the quarter, up 13% year over year. We also produced another quarter of record FRE and FRE margins remain strong.

謝謝，哈維。大家早安。我們繼續看到整個平台的強勁勢頭，並繼續實現 2024 年財務目標。本季我們的資產管理規模達到創紀錄的 4,350 億美元，年增 13%。我們也創造了另一個季度創紀錄的 FRE，而 FRE 利潤率依然強勁。

We produced $343 million in DE for the second quarter or $0.78 in DE per share. And year-to-date, DE per share of $1.79 is 19% higher. We repurchased 178 million of shares in the second quarter, bringing our total repurchase amount to approximately [330 million] for the first half of the year. Total shares outstanding are at the lowest level since 2021, and we have $1.1 billion remaining on our share repurchase authorization.

第二季我們生產了 3.43 億美元的 DE，即每股 DE 0.78 美元。今年迄今為止，每股 DE 為 1.79 美元，上漲了 19%。我們在第二季回購了1.78億股股票，使得上半年我們的回購總額約為[3.3億]。已發行股票總數處於 2021 年以來的最低水平，我們的股票回購授權還剩 11 億美元。

Now let's cover three important areas: fee-related earnings, fundraising and the investment environment. Fee-related earnings increased to $273 million in the quarter, up over 30% from the second quarter of 2023. First half FRE of $539 million is far and away a record and is 35% higher than the first half of 2023.

現在讓我們討論三個重要領域：與費用相關的收入、籌款和投資環境。本季與費用相關的營收增至 2.73 億美元，較 2023 年第二季成長超過 30%。

Second quarter management fees increased 2% in the quarter to $525 million. Management fees in Global Credit and Solutions experienced a double-digit growth year over year and hit record levels. We expect total management fees to accelerate across the second half of the year driven by the nearly $20 billion of pending fee-earning AUM, the highest level since 2021.

第二季管理費成長 2%，達到 5.25 億美元。全球信貸和解決方案的管理費較去年同期實現兩位數成長，並創下歷史新高。我們預計，下半年管理費總額將在近 200 億美元的未決收費資產管理規模（2021 年以來的最高水準）的推動下加速成長。

Transaction and advisory fees were up almost 60% year over year driven by the steadily improving transaction environment. We are on pace for a record year. We continue to drive towards our target of $1.1 billion of FRE for 2024, implying FRE in the second half of 2024 will be higher than the first half.

在交易環境穩定改善的推動下，交易和諮詢費用較去年同期成長近60%。我們正邁向創紀錄的一年。我們繼續朝著 2024 年 FRE 11 億美元的目標努力，這意味著 2024 年下半年的 FRE 將高於上半年。

Let's turn to fundraising. Year-to-date, we raised $18 billion in new capital and $41 billion over the last 12 months. We saw meaningful activity in this quarter in both Global Private Equity and Global Credit.

讓我們轉向籌款。今年迄今為止，我們籌集了 180 億美元的新資本，並在過去 12 個月內籌集了 410 億美元。本季我們在全球私募股權和全球信​​貸領域都看到了有意義的活動。

In Global Private Equity, we closed our fifth vintage Japan buyout fund, nearly 70% larger than its predecessor. Across Asia, this brings us to $5 billion of capital raised. We recently announced the take private of KFC Japan, where our pan-Asia teams came together to leverage our significant expertise in the restaurant and food sector. This remains a robust market for us.

在全球私募股權領域，我們關閉了第五隻老式日本收購基金，規模比其前身大近 70%。在整個亞洲，我們籌集的資金達到 50 億美元。我們最近宣布將日本肯德基私有化，我們的泛亞洲團隊聚集在一起，利用我們在餐廳和食品行業的重要專業知識。這對我們來說仍然是一個強勁的市場。

In terms of our latest real estate fund, we closed on amount materially higher than what we disclosed in our earnings release and we are progressing quickly to a final close. In a challenging real estate market, it's worth noting the exceptional performance of our franchise, which remains a key area of growth.

就我們最新的房地產基金而言，我們的收盤金額遠高於我們在收益發布中披露的金額，而且我們正在迅速接近最終收盤。在充滿挑戰的房地產市場中，值得注意的是我們特許經營權的出色表現，這仍然是成長的關鍵領域。

In Global Credit, we raised $5 billion in the quarter. As Harvey said, we had one of the most active first six months in our 20-plus year CLO history. We also benefited from continued strength in our credit wealth product, CTAC, as well as other strategies. For the balance of the year, we expect to raise significant capital across all segments as we continue to work towards our target of $40 billion.

在全球信貸方面，我們本季籌集了 50 億美元。正如 Harvey 所說，我們度過了 20 多年 CLO 歷史上最活躍的前六個月之一。我們也受益於信貸財富產品 CTAC 以及其他策略的持續強勢。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們預計將在所有部門籌集大量資金，並繼續努力實現 400 億美元的目標。

Finally, let me touch on the investment environment. As Harvey mentioned, we are seeing increased investment activity across the business as buyer and seller confidence has improved despite recent volatility.

最後我想談談投資環境。正如哈維所提到的，我們看到整個行業的投資活動增加，儘管最近出現了波動，但買家和賣家信心有所改善。

We have access to great proprietary data across our global platform, which also points to increased activity levels. In terms of exit activity, we now are seeing more robust competition where an IPO is a real exit path and strategic buyer interest has picked up. We expect increased activity in the second half of 2024.

我們可以在全球平台上存取大量專有數據，這也顯示活動水準有所提高。就退出活動而言，我們現在看到競爭更加激烈，首次公開發行是真正的退出途徑，而且策略性買家的興趣有所上升。我們預計 2024 年下半年活動將會增加。

Wrapping up, we continue to focus on delivering strong results for our shareholders. We have good momentum across our platform and are on track to achieve the financial targets that we laid out for 2024.

總而言之，我們繼續專注於為股東提供強勁的業績。我們整個平台勢頭良好，並有望實現我們為 2024 年制定的財務目標。

With that let me turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Glenn Schorr，Evercore ISI。

Good morning. I heard both of your comments loud and clear about your exit pipeline, DE guide and the backdrop. And the brokers and advisers that have reported have all said similar commentary. The market sentiment and the outlook is -- feels like it's changed a lot in the last few days. And so I'm curious, a, why you think the market's perception is that things are going to slow down materially, but that's different for your business mix I get it. So I'd love to hear that. And b, just how that -- how all that business goes into your thoughts on capital-raising outlook for PE specifically?

早安.我聽到了你們對退出管道、DE 指南和背景的大聲而清晰的評論。報道過的經紀人和顧問也都發表了類似的評論。市場情緒和前景在過去幾天裡感覺發生了很大變化。所以我很好奇，為什麼你認為市場的看法是事情將會大幅放緩，但這對你的業務組合來說是不同的，我明白。所以我很想聽聽這個。 b，所有這些業務如何影響您對私募股權融資前景的看法？

Yeah. So Glenn, again, thanks for the question. So obviously, the last couple of days of trading and the way the markets are positioned to open this morning, there's a lot of red on the screens. When we form our views as John and I said, we look at underlying portfolio performance and we extrapolate that data in terms of economic growth. If we were having this call last Tuesday, none of these questions would be in the mix about the current market environment.

是的。格倫再次感謝您的提問。很明顯，從過去幾天的交易情況以及今天早上開盤的情況來看，螢幕上出現了很多紅色。當我們像約翰和我所說的那樣形成我們的觀點時，我們會關注潛在的投資組合表現，並根據經濟成長來推斷這些數據。如果我們上週二召開這次電話會議，那麼有關當前市場環境的問題就不會包含在其中。

As a matter of fact, you might think we were understating the trajectory of how things felt. And so I think all of us have to be a little bit careful not to overreact to a market adjustment, which at the moment feels very, very liquidity-driven and very risk sentiment-driven. Again, if we're having this call last week, we were talking about the fact that we expected Fed rate cuts, GDP looks solid. So none of that has changed our view. Now sentiment can extend itself into problematic ways. It's way too early to extrapolate that.

事實上，你可能認為我們低估了事情的感受軌跡。因此，我認為我們所有人都必須小心一點，不要對市場調整反應過度，目前市場調整感覺非常非常受流動性驅動，非常受風險情緒驅動。再說一次，如果我們上週召開這個電話會議，我們談論的是這樣一個事實：我們預計聯準會會降息，GDP 看起來很穩定。所以這些都沒有改變我們的觀點。現在，情緒可能會延伸到有問題的方面。現在推論還為時過早。

Portfolio performance looks good. Market opportunity feels good. Exits still feel good. Pending announcements feel good. We'll see what happens over the next several weeks in terms of market environment. But if anything, I think, this will encourage the Fed to take action, which is really what the market is looking for.

投資組合表現看起來不錯。市場機會感覺很好。退出的感覺還是不錯的。待發布的公告感覺很好。我們將看看未來幾週市場環境會發生什麼。但我認為，如果有的話，這將鼓勵聯準會採取行動，而這正是市場所期待的。

And again, we ought to be reminded, one of the things we learned over the last couple of years is how the transmission mechanism when the Fed is raising rates is slower than when they're cutting. And again, my crystal ball is no better than yours, Glenn, but nothing about the last couple of days changes our view about the balance of the year at this stage.

再次提醒我們，過去幾年我們學到的一件事是，聯準會升息時的傳導機制比降息時慢。再說一次，我的水晶球並不比你的好，格倫，但過去幾天的情況並沒有改變我們對現階段今年剩餘時間的看法。

Alexander Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

亞歷山大·布洛斯坦，高盛。

Hey, Harvey. So maybe just to build on the $40 billion target for fundraising for the year and your sort of confidence level around working towards that remaining $20 billion-plus in the back half of the year, maybe talk a little bit about the key contributors you expect to come through, particularly around real estate, where it seems like you guys are seeing a really nice momentum. And maybe just clarify how much capital have you guys raised in those real estate funds and where they stand today. Thanks.

嘿，哈維。因此，也許只是為了今年 400 億美元的籌款目標以及您對下半年實現剩餘 200 億美元以上的目標的信心水平，也許可以談談您期望的主要貢獻者尤其是在房地產領域，你們似乎看到了非常好的勢頭。也許只是澄清一下你們在這些房地產基金中籌集了多少資金以及它們目前的狀況。謝謝。

Hey, Alex, it's John. Look, we feel very good about the momentum we have in fundraising. We obviously had a very strong quarter in the second quarter. We're at $18 billion year-to-date. As I said in my remarks, we're at $41 billion in the last 12 months. So we do feel like we're working to the $40 billion. And as I look at kind of the next six months, it's really across the platform where we're raising money. We have a lot of product strategies in the market.

嘿，亞歷克斯，我是約翰。看，我們對籌款的動能感到非常滿意。顯然，我們第二季的表現非常強勁。今年迄今為止，我們的資產規模為 180 億美元。正如我在演講中所說，過去 12 個月我們的收入達到 410 億美元。所以我們確實覺得我們正在努力爭取 400 億美元。當我展望未來六個月時，我們實際上是在整個平台上籌集資金。我們在市場上有很多產品策略。

I think you'll see continued momentum in our Solutions business, both the secondaries, the co-investment fund. As Harvey said, the CAPM wealth product is on more platforms. So we feel good about that. In terms of our credit business, we're seeing good momentum in our wealth product there, CTAC. You'll continue to see strength in our credit opportunities fund, our infra credit fund, and CLO activity will continue. And then when I look at kind of Global Private Equity, you'll see continued strength in our real estate fundraise.

我認為您會看到我們的解決方案業務（包括二級市場和聯合投資基金）的持續成長勢頭。正如Harvey所說，CAPM財富產品在更多平台上。所以我們對此感覺良好。就我們的信貸業務而言，我們看到我們的財富產品 CTAC 勢頭良好。您將繼續看到我們的信貸機會基金、基礎信貸基金的實力，並且 CLO 活動將繼續。然後，當我關注全球私募股權時，您會看到我們的房地產融資持續強勁。

As I said earlier, we have a lot of momentum. We're at a number that's materially higher than we disclosed. And later in the year, we'll be launching infrastructure product as well and we have two buyout funds in the market. So we have a lot of strategies in the market in the back half and we feel really -- we're quite positive on the momentum we have.

正如我之前所說，我們有很大的動力。我們的數字遠高於我們揭露的數字。今年晚些時候，我們還將推出基礎設施產品，並且我們在市場上有兩個收購基金。因此，我們在後半段的市場上有很多策略，我們真的對我們所擁有的勢頭非常樂觀。

Ken Worthington, JPMorgan.

肯‧沃辛頓，摩根大通。

Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking the question. Can you talk about the outlook for fundraising in CEP VI and CAP VI? I think both have been similarly sized funds and recent vintages. Do you see fundraising as easier or more challenged for the next vintage in either Europe or Asian for those buyout-focused funds? And then for CAP VI, you raised $2 billion. How much longer is that fund in market? Any comments you can make on the outlook here?

你好。早上好，感謝您提出問題。您能談談 CEP VI 和 CAP VI 的募款前景嗎？我認為這兩檔基金的規模和年份都很相似。您認為對於那些以收購為重點的基金來說，下一個年份在歐洲或亞洲的籌款是更容易還是更具挑戰性？然後，您為 CAP VI 籌集了 20 億美元。該基金在市場上還有多久？您對這裡的前景有何評論？

Hey, Ken, it's John. Look, I'm limited in terms of what I can say specifically about CAP VI because we are in the market raising money. And we've been pretty clear previously stating that we do think the current fund CAP VI will be smaller than its predecessor fund and we've said that as well for CEP. Look, our CAP business it's really facing some geopolitical headwinds. But look, overall, in terms of Asia, as I said, we've raised $5 billion. We continue to see very attractive opportunities in Asia. I referenced the KFC transaction, which was a kind of a pan-Asia effort. But this is -- our Asia business is a very important business to us, and we're fully committed to it. As to where we end up in CAP VI, I can't really provide you a number.

嘿，肯，我是約翰。聽著，我對 CAP VI 能說的具體內容有限，因為我們是在市場上籌集資金。我們之前已經非常明確地表示，我們確實認為目前的 CAP VI 基金規模將小於其前身基金，我們也對 CEP 說過這一點。看，我們的 CAP 業務確實面臨一些地緣政治阻力。但總體而言，就亞洲而言，正如我所說，我們已經籌集了 50 億美元。我們繼續在亞洲看到非常有吸引力的機會。我提到了肯德基交易，這是一種泛亞洲的努力。但這是——我們的亞洲業務對我們來說是一項非常重要的業務，我們完全致力於此。至於我們在 CAP VI 中的最終結果，我無法向您提供具體數字。

Ben Budish, Barclays.

本·布迪什，巴克萊銀行。

Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about your transaction advisory fees. You identified this last year as a strategic area of focus. But based on your comments, it sounds like there's a lot more activity coming in the back half of the year. Just any color on how that line item should evolve in the back half and going into 2025 would be very helpful. Thank you.

你好。早上好，感謝您提出問題。我想問一下你們的交易諮詢費。您去年將其確定為戰略重點領域。但根據您的評論，聽起來今年下半年會有更多活動。只要任何關於該訂單項目在後半段以及進入 2025 年如何演變的顏色都會非常有幫助。謝謝。

Yes. This is John. Look, this has been a focus area for the firm the last 12 months. Harvey has been very clear that the firm is focused on this particular part of our business. I would say we're very pleased with the progress we've made. When you look at how the growth we're generating in this business over the last six months, it's quite impressive. It's up 60%. And obviously, it's benefiting from a more conducive transaction environment. And we kind of looking at the pipeline of exits as well as new transactions really across the platform, not just specific to private equity. We feel like this will be a record year for our kind of transaction capital market fees.

是的。這是約翰。看，這一直是該公司過去 12 個月的重點領域。哈維非常清楚，公司專注於我們業務的這一特定部分。我想說，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。當你看看過去六個月我們在這項業務中所取得的成長時，你會發現這是相當令人印象深刻的。上漲了60%。顯然，它受益於更有利的交易環境。我們實際上著眼於整個平台的退出管道和新交易，而不僅僅是針對私募股權。我們認為今年將是我們的資本市場交易費用創紀錄的一年。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

布萊恩·比德爾，德意志銀行。

Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Just going back to the deployment outlook for the second half. If you could talk a little bit about the timing of the, I think, nearly $20 billion of fee pending AUM in terms of that potential build for management fees? And then just in the light of the environment, if this risk-off sentiment persists in the second half, how do you envision that impacting your deployment outlook potential in the US and also Japan, I guess, as well?

謝謝。早安.感謝您提出問題。回到下半年的部署前景。我認為，就管理費的潛在建設而言，您能否談談近 200 億美元的未決管理費用的時間表？然後，考慮到環境，如果這種避險情緒在下半年持續存在，我想，您認為這會如何影響您在美國和日本的部署前景潛力？

Yes, Brian, it's John. Look, as Harvey said in this call, we're long-term investors, not to focus on day-to-day market volatility or market generations. But look, if we're in extend period of a down market, I can't -- I don't know what happens, but I think it's probably less positive than where we sit today. But looking at the pipeline today, we see tremendous transaction activity in the back half. So we feel very good about that.

是的，布萊恩，是約翰。聽著，正如哈維在這次電話會議中所說，我們是長期投資者，而不是關注日常市場波動或市場世代。但是看，如果我們處於長期的低迷時期，我不能——我不知道會發生什麼，但我認為它可能不如我們今天所處的情況那麼積極。但看看今天的管道，我們看到後半段有巨大的交易活動。所以我們對此感覺非常好。

And it's really again, as I said earlier, it's not only private equity. It's in credit and it's in solutions. I mean if you look at the deployment levels we've had in our Solutions business, it's quite strong. We're at $4.5 billion year-to-date, and they have a very good pipeline. So I'd say it's broad-based. I don't -- I'm not smart enough to tell you where the markets are going to be.

正如我之前所說，這確實不僅僅是私募股權。這是信用，也是解決方案。我的意思是，如果你看看我們解決方案業務中的部署級別，你會發現它非常強大。今年迄今為止，我們的營收為 45 億美元，而且他們擁有非常好的管道。所以我想說它的基礎很廣。我不知道——我不夠聰明，無法告訴你市場將走向何方。

But where we sit today, we feel very good about the deployment. In terms of the $20 billion of pending fee earning AUM, which is really the highest level it's been since 2021, and there's some Global Private Equity AUM in that number and there's also some credit. You should expect that to be turned on over the coming quarters. So in Global Private Equity, we have Japan buyout in there. We have real estate. And in Global Credit, it's really spread across the platform. But you should assume those fees turn on over the coming quarters.

但我們今天所坐的地方，我們對部署感到非常滿意。就 200 億美元的待處理費用收入 AUM 而言，這確實是自 2021 年以來的最高水平，這個數字中有一些全球私募股權 AUM，也有一些功勞。您應該預計該功能將在未來幾季內啟用。因此，在全球私募股權領域，我們有日本的收購。我們有房地產。在全球信貸中，它確實分佈在整個平台上。但您應該假設這些費用將在未來幾季內生效。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

派崔克戴維特，自主研究。

Hey, good morning, everyone. It looks like you're now already in the kind of 30% to 35% FRE comp ratio range which I think happened a bit faster than most of us were expecting, particularly with realization is still so light. So firstly, can we expect this to be a new baseline from here? Or could it ratchet back up later in the year if say realizations stay this light? Thank you.

嘿，大家早安。看起來你現在已經處於 30% 到 35% FRE 補償比率範圍內，我認為這比我們大多數人預期的要快一些，特別是在實現仍然如此之輕的情況下。首先，我們是否可以期望這是一個新的基線？或者說，如果實現保持如此輕鬆，它會在今年稍後回升嗎？謝謝。

Yes, Patrick, it's John. Yes, look, we're very pleased with where we are on that ratio. But I have to be honest, we're not managing the business to hit that specific ratio. And we've always said we're going to operate within the range we specified in our fourth quarter. You should expect us to operate in that range but plus or minus 1% or 2% from kind of where we are, which is the midpoint or at the upper end of that range at 35% is where you should expect us to operate the business. Look, we're very mindful of investing in the business for growth, not necessarily completely focused on driving the margin, but more focused on investing in these businesses for growth.

是的，派崔克，是約翰。是的，看，我們對這個比率非常滿意。但我必須說實話，我們的業務管理並沒有達到這個特定的比率。我們一直說我們將在第四季度指定的範圍內運作。您應該期望我們在這個範圍內運營，但與我們所處的位置相比正負 1% 或 2%，這是您應該期望我們運營業務的範圍的中點或上限，即 35% 。看，我們非常注重投資業務以實現成長，不一定完全專注於提高利潤率，而是更專注於投資這些業務以實現成長。

Brian McKenna, Citizens JMP.

Brian McKenna，公民 JMP。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So we saw the announcement this morning that you're merging two of your BDCs. Can you just talk about the merits of the transaction? Why is now the right time for this? Are there any financial implications for CG? And then it will be great just to get an update on your broader direct lending strategy, specifically as it relates to both institutional and private wealth fundraising there?

謝謝。大家早安。今天早上我們看到了您將合併兩個 BDC 的公告。能簡單談談這筆交易的優點嗎？為什麼現在是這樣做的正確時機？對 CG 有何財務影響？然後，如果能了解更廣泛的直接貸款策略的最新情況，特別是因為它與那裡的機構和私人財富籌款有關，那就太好了？

Yeah. So we announced the merger of our public BDCs merging with a private BDC, and we'll provide more details over time. And it likely won't close, Brian, until Q1 2025. But look the benefit to us is we get more scale in the public BDC. It is a scale business. I think it will be easier for us to raise equity capital going forward. That's obviously financially attractive to the firm. But also there is a benefit to FRE with this merger and we'll quantify that as we get closer to the close. But it's net-net, it's a positive for Carlyle.

是的。因此，我們宣布將公共 BDC 與私人 BDC 合併，我們將隨著時間的推移提供更多詳細資訊。 Brian，它可能要到 2025 年第一季才會關閉。這是一個規模化的業務。我認為我們未來籌集股本會更容易。這顯然對公司具有財務吸引力。但此次合併也為 FRE 帶來了好處，隨著交易臨近，我們將對其進行量化。但這是淨淨的，這對凱雷來說是積極的。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農，傑弗里斯。

Thanks. Good morning. Within Global Private Equity, management fees were slightly up quarter-over-quarter, but obviously still down year-over-year and given the fundraising you talked about some of the dry powder. I guess as you look at the second half of the year and prospectively, what is your outlook for kind of management fees within just the global PE bucket?

謝謝。早安.在全球私募股權領域，管理費環比略有上升，但顯然同比仍有所下降，並考慮到您談到的一些籌款活動。我想，當您展望今年下半年和未來時，您對全球私募股權類別中的管理費的前景有何看法？

Yes. So Global Private Equity, we kind of are expecting flattish, Dan, in terms of management fees. Obviously, we're showing some real strength in the real estate side of the business. But as I said in the previous question, we do expect a couple of vintages of our private equity funds, our Europe buyout fund and Asia buyout fund to be smaller than predecessors. But we're able to mitigate that with the growth we're seeing in the real estate business and other parts of the Global Private Equity business.

是的。因此，丹，全球私募股權公司的管理費預計將持平。顯然，我們在房地產業務方面展現了一些真正的實力。但正如我在上一個問題中所說，我們確實預計我們的私募股權基金、歐洲收購基金和亞洲收購基金的幾個年份將小於前。但隨著房地產業務和全球私募股權業務其他部分的成長，我們能夠緩解這個問題。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

So, how are you doing Harvey? So wanted to just ask for a mark-to-market on some of the progress you're making in the retail channel. You cited some improved momentum. I was just hoping to drill down further. How did flows trend in the quarter? And maybe more specifically how are you designing your retail-focused PE product just to be more competitive with some of the peer offerings that are out there that have seen some pretty good uptake?

那麼，哈維你怎麼樣？因此，我想詢問一下您在零售通路中取得的一些進展的按市值計價。您提到了一些改善的勢頭。我只是希望能進一步深入。本季的流量趨勢如何？也許更具體地說，您如何設計以零售為中心的私募股權產品，以便與一些已經獲得相當不錯採用的同行產品相比更具競爭力？

So I've been spending a lot of time in this space. Just to give you some color, we launched the CAPM, which John mentioned on, a number of platforms in the past quarter. David Rubenstein and I did a whole series of town halls, office meetings with our distribution partners, who we're really grateful for their focus across the US, and we're looking to extend internationally. So when you look at the momentum behind CTAC, our credit product and CAPM, we feel very, very good about it.

所以我在這個領域花了很多時間。只是為了給您一些啟發，我們在上個季度推出了約翰在多個平台上提到的 CAPM。大衛·魯賓斯坦和我與我們的分銷合作夥伴進行了一系列的市政廳和辦公室會議，我們非常感謝他們對美國各地的關注，並且我們希望將業務擴展到國際範圍。因此，當你看到 CTAC、我們的信貸產品和 CAPM 背後的勢頭時，我們感覺非常非常好。

In terms of strategy, we are not of the view that we want to flood these distribution partners and channels with multiple products. We really want to have scale and focus and long-term performance. And so you'll see us stay really focused on a mix of platform programs that we can build on over a very long period of time.

在策略方面，我們並不認為我們希望向這些分銷合作夥伴和通路提供多種產品。我們確實希望擁有規模、重點和長期績效。因此，您會看到我們真正專注於可以在很長一段時間內建立的平台計劃組合。

And then obviously, we'll have selected targeted feeder funds, which have always been part of our strategy. In terms of the private equity product, we're still targeting 2025 as a complementary product. And that will give us the three key footholds that we want across wealth for the coming years.

顯然，我們將選擇有針對性的支線基金，這一直是我們策略的一部分。在私募股權產品方面，我們仍以2025年為目標，作為補充產品。這將為我們提供未來幾年財富管理的三個關鍵立足點。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨，TD·考恩。

Thank you very much for taking the questions this morning. Maybe turning to the capital, haven't talked about that. How should we think about the pacing for the residual $1.1 billion of repurchase? How does that triangulate up against how you think about the balance sheet? And then maybe, Harvey, I was thinking just wondering if you could give us an updated thoughts on this strategic M&A for the company. Thank you.

非常感謝您今天早上提出問題。也許轉向首都，還沒談過這個。我們該如何考慮剩餘11億美元回購的節奏？這個三角測量與您對資產負債表的看法有何不同？然後，哈維，我可能只是想知道您是否能為我們提供有關該公司策略併購的最新想法。謝謝。

Yes. So, Bill, look, Harvey and I discussed in the past just we really took a step back and really rethought how we think about capital allocation, and capital allocation runs the spectrum of buying shares back, investing in the business for growth and M&A. And look, I'd say we're very pleased with the buyback activity. Last year, 2023, our share count was down. That's the first time since our IPO. I think that's a positive. Year-to-date, our share count is down again. I think that's another positive.

是的。所以，比爾，聽著，哈維和我過去討論過，我們真的退後了一步，真正重新思考了我們如何看待資本配置，而資本配置涉及回購股票、投資業務以實現增長和併購。看，我想說我們對回購活動非常滿意。去年，也就是 2023 年，我們的股份數量有所下降。這是我們首次公開募股以來的第一次。我認為這是積極的。今年迄今為止，我們的股票數量再次下降。我認為這是另一個積極因素。

And as I said in my remarks, we repurchased 330 million shares year-to-date. I think the best we've ever done in the past is a couple of hundred million in a year. So we're on pace to deliver a fairly large share repurchase. We have $1.1 billion remaining on the share repurchase and you should assume that we're active buyers of the stock.

正如我在演講中所說，今年迄今我們回購了 3.3 億股股票。我認為我們過去做得最好的一年是幾億美元。因此，我們正計劃進行相當大的股票回購。我們還剩下 11 億美元用於股票回購，您應該假設我們是該股票的積極買家。

In terms of M&A, look, to me, it's a multifaceted question in the sense if we saw something that we like strategically and financially, the deal made sense and culturally, it was compatible, we would absolutely pivot to M&A away from the stock buyback. And again, it comes back to how do we think about allocating capital. We think about allocating capital in terms of where can we get the best returns and growth for our business, our shareholders and our stakeholders. So if something on the M&A front made sense, we would pivot away from utilizing the capital for a stock buyback and do an M&A transaction.

在併購方面，對我來說，這是一個多方面的問題，如果我們在策略和財務上看到我們喜歡的東西，這筆交易在文化上有意義，它是相容的，我們絕對會從股票回購轉向併購。再次，這又回到了我們如何考慮配置資本的問題。我們考慮如何分配資本，以便為我們的業務、股東和利害關係人獲得最佳回報和成長。因此，如果併購方面的某些事情有意義，我們將不再利用資金進行股票回購，而是進行併購交易。

Yes. What I would say, first of all, obviously, I agree with everything John said. It's really important to understand the lens to which we look at capital allocation and the discipline we're applying to that in terms of what's marginally most accretive. But again, as I said in my remarks, sitting here now 1.5 years in at Carlyle, I really like the organic momentum and the way the team is coming together. Having said that, our platform currently gives us the flexibility to position in a lot of directions. And if the right opportunity came across, you should expect us to take action, but it has to fit all those prerequisites John just described. They're not flexible.

是的。我要說的是，首先，顯然，我同意約翰所說的一切。了解我們看待資本配置的觀點以及我們在最邊際增值方面所應用的規則非常重要。但正如我在演講中所說，我已經在凱雷工作了 1.5 年，我真的很喜歡這種有機的動力和團隊團結的方式。話雖如此，我們的平台目前使我們能夠靈活地在許多方向上進行定位。如果您遇到合適的機會，您應該期望我們採取行動，但它必須符合約翰剛才所描述的所有先決條件。他們不靈活。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

麥可‧賽普里斯，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Just a question on insurance. I was hoping you could elaborate on the contribution from Fortitude in the quarter, how you see the pace of migrating the book over into Carlyle strategies? How is that progressing? And then just more broadly, if you could just maybe update us on your insurance and Fortitude-related initiatives and how you're strategically thinking about accelerating the pace of growth from here? Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。早安.只是一個關於保險的問題。我希望您能詳細介紹一下 Fortitude 在本季度的貢獻，您如何看待將這本書遷移到凱雷戰略的步伐？進展如何？更廣泛地說，您是否可以向我們介紹您的保險和 Fortitude 相關計劃的最新情況，以及您如何從策略角度考慮加快成長速度？謝謝。

So the Fortitude partnership has been fantastic. As you know, we talked a bit about the Discover Financial Services transaction. And that really is a great example of the partnership and collaboration across credit, our CSS business, capital markets and insurance. And it really does exemplify the flywheel effect one gets by being an insurance business and across all of our insurance clients and partnerships away from Fortitude. So we feel quite good about that.

因此，Fortitude 的合作夥伴關係非常棒。如您所知，我們討論了一些關於發現金融服務交易的問題。這確實是信貸、我們的 CSS 業務、資本市場和保險領域夥伴關係和協作的一個很好的例子。它確實體現了作為保險企業以及我們所有遠離 Fortitude 的保險客戶和合作夥伴所獲得的飛輪效應。所以我們對此感覺很好。

In terms of our positioning with Fortitude and insurance more broadly, obviously, there's huge opportunity in the sector in a number of ways. One, obviously, is this focus on private investment grade. Again, that's a fantastic example of our asset-backed business growing so quickly over the last several years and the focus there.

就我們對 Fortitude 和保險的更廣泛定位而言，顯然，該行業在許多方面都存在巨大的機會。其中之一顯然是對私人投資等級的關注。這再次是我們的資產支援業務在過去幾年中快速成長以及我們的重點的一個極好的例子。

But more importantly, from our position being capital light, it gives us the ability to pivot and grow in any number of ways. The very narrow answer to your question, the market has been at the margin a bit more competitive in the block business. We're being disciplined about the capital deployment there. But the pipeline is quite good in terms of transaction flows around the world, reflecting various regulatory changes and needs of our insurance partners. But we feel quite good about the partnership and the trajectory all around.

但更重要的是，由於我們是輕資本，它使我們有能力以多種方式進行轉型和成長。對你的問題的非常狹隘的回答是，市場在區塊業務中的邊緣競爭更加激烈。我們在那裡的資本部署受到了嚴格的約束。但就全球交易流量而言，通路相當不錯，反映了各種監管變化和我們保險合作夥伴的需求。但我們對雙方的合作關係和整個發展軌跡感覺非常好。

Craig Siegenthaler, Bank of America.

克雷格·西根塔勒，美國銀行。

Hey, Harvey. I think part of my name cut out, but I think you guys know who I am. Can you hear me okay?

嘿，哈維。我想我的名字被刪掉了一部分，但我想你們知道我是誰。你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we got you. Sorry about that. I didn't mean to talk over you.

是的，我們找到你了。對此感到抱歉。我不是故意要談論你的。

Perfect. No worries at all. So I actually have another compensation question. So following the modifications you guys announced on the 4Q call, stock-based comp is running up a lot year-over-year. That's not really a surprise, but we were hoping you could give some color on how we should model stock-based comp over the next year because I believe there's a step down coming from 4Q '24 to 1Q '25 due to the roll-off of one of the stock-based comp tranches. I had in the ballpark of about $25 million per quarter, but maybe you could help us with the forward run rate of stock-based comp. Thank you very much.

完美的。完全不用擔心。所以我實際上還有另一個補償問題。因此，在你們在第四季度電話會議上宣布的修改之後，基於股票的比較同比增長了很多。這並不令人意外，但我們希望您能就我們明年應如何對基於股票的比較進行建模提供一些說明，因為我相信由於滾降，從24 年第四季度到25 年第一季度會有一個下降以股票為基礎的比較部分之一。我每季大約有 2500 萬美元，但也許你可以幫助我們提高基於股票的比較的遠期運行率。非常感謝。

Hey, Craig, it's John. Look, in terms of the stock-based comp, we've been pretty clear of saying, telling you that it will remain elevated in 2024. And look, a lot of that is driven by this performance stock unit grant we gave to key senior individuals of the firm earlier in the year, and these are the people responsible for driving growth. And as you recall, these are very, very shareholder-friendly instruments, great alignment. They only vest if the stock's up 20%, 40% and 60%.

嘿，克雷格，我是約翰。看，就基於股票的比較而言，我們已經非常明確地說，告訴您它將在2024 年保持在較高水平。推動的今年早些時候公司的個人，這些人是負責推動成長的人。正如你所記得的，這些都是非常非常有利於股東的工具，非常一致。只有當股票上漲 20%、40% 和 60% 時，他們才會歸屬。

So again, very shareholder-friendly instruments. The accounting of the performance stock units is a little different in the sense. We still have to expense the award even though we don't even know if it vests and that's we're in the middle of expensing that award, very front-end loaded.

再說一次，這是非常有利於股東的工具。從某種意義上說，績效股票單位的會計處理略有不同。我們仍然必須支出該獎項，即使我們甚至不知道它是否歸屬，而且我們正處於支出該獎項的中間，前端負荷很大。

So you're seeing a fairly large impact from this PSU grant. But again, I would expect third and fourth quarter stock-based comp expense to be elevated and then they start trickle down -- trickling down in 2025. I'd say directionally, the number you alluded to is probably not too far off from where I'd start.

因此，您會看到這項 PSU 撥款產生了相當大的影響。但同樣，我預計第三季和第四季基於股票的補償費用將會上升，然後開始逐漸下降——到 2025 年逐漸下降。

Yes, this accounting versus reality, always a little bit of a challenge. We're happy to take more of that offline for folks because this question comes up. Again, we are obviously very focused on the efficiency of how we're running the company and the discipline we're bringing to that, which is why you're seeing the share count come down so dramatically since John and I started focusing on this a bit over a year ago and all the capital planning that we've announced. But I agree it's a little confusing to see comp expense, see equity compensation expense up and share count down so much. It's a little hard to reconcile that and keep an eye on the share count.

是的，這種會計與現實的對比，總是有點挑戰。我們很高興為人們提供更多的線下服務，因為這個問題出現了。再說一次，我們顯然非常關注我們營運公司的效率以及我們為此帶來的紀律，這就是為什麼自從約翰和我開始關注這個問題以來，你會看到股票數量急劇下降一年多前以及我們宣布的所有資本規劃。但我同意，看到補償費用、股權補償費用增加而股票數量減少這麼多，有點令人困惑。協調這一點並密切關注股票數量有點困難。

I would now like to hand the conference back over to Daniel Harris for closing remarks.

現在我想將會議交還給丹尼爾·哈里斯（Daniel Harris）致閉幕詞。

Yeah. Thank you for your time and attention today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Investor Relations after the call. We look forward to talking to you next quarter.

是的。感謝您今天的時間和關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請在通話後聯絡投資者關係部門。我們期待下個季度與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。