Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Carlyle Group Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加凱雷集團 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係主管丹尼爾哈里斯 (Daniel Harris)。

Thank you, Josh. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; and Chief Financial Officer, John Redett. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is also available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website.

謝謝你，喬許。早安，歡迎參加凱雷 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長哈維·施瓦茨 (Harvey Schwartz)；和財務長約翰·雷德特。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和一份詳細的收益報告，這些內容也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。該電話會議正在網路直播，我們的網站上將提供重播。

We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We have provided a reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available. Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them.

我們將在今天的電話會議中提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施不應孤立地考慮或取代根據公認會計原則制定的措施。我們已在合理可用的範圍內，在收益報告中提供了這些措施與 GAAP 的調整表。今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述並不保證未來的業績，不應過度依賴它們。

These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time.

這些陳述是基於當前管理層的預期，涉及固有風險和不確定性，包括我們10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中確定的風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與所示結果存在重大差異。凱雷不承擔隨時更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

So turning to our results. For the third quarter, we generated $205 million in fee-related earnings and $367 million in distributable earnings with DE per common share of $0.87. Our net accrued carry balance was $3.5 billion as of the end of the quarter, and we declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share. In order to ensure participation by all those on the call today, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for any additional follow-ups.

所以轉向我們的結果。第三季度，我們產生了 2.05 億美元的費用相關收益和 3.67 億美元的可分配收益，每股普通股 DE 為 0.87 美元。截至本季末，我們的應計淨利差餘額為 35 億美元，我們宣布派發每股普通股 0.35 美元的季度股息。為了確保今天所有參加電話會議的人員都能參與，請只回答一個問題，然後返回隊列以獲取任何其他後續問題。

And with that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給我們的執行長 Harvey Schwartz。

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll update you on the areas where we have strong momentum and where we're focused on accelerating growth. Before getting into that, let me touch on the macro.

謝謝，丹。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天，我將向您介紹我們勢頭強勁以及我們重點加速成長的領域的最新情況。在開始討論之前，讓我先談談宏觀。

An already complex environment has become increasingly uncertain with the tragic events unfolding in the Middle East. Multiple wars, along with higher rates and economic uncertainty has increased volatility and reduced confidence levels. As we all know, sentiment is the greatest market elixir, and negative sentiment has slowed transaction activity over the past year. That said, despite the challenging market backdrop, deal activity has shown signs of improvement as third quarter buyout activity was at the highest pace in over a year. However, my own opinion is that lower activity levels and reduced confidence will likely persist for a bit longer.

隨著中東悲劇事件的發生，本已複雜的環境變得越來越不確定。多場戰爭、利率上升和經濟不確定性增加了波動性並降低了信心水準。眾所周知，情緒是最大的市場靈丹妙藥，負面情緒導致過去一年的交易活動放緩。儘管如此，儘管市場背景充滿挑戰，但交易活動已顯示出改善的跡象，因為第三季收購活動達到一年多來的最高水準。然而，我個人的觀點是，較低的活動水平和較低的信心可能會持續更長的時間。

As we said in the past, our view is that rates will stay higher for longer. After 20 years of declining rates and central bank market intervention, the overall cost of capital has shifted higher and may remain so for some time. Market participants have reluctantly accepted this reality and begun repricing assets based on this outcome. However, as is often the case in market regime shifts, this process of market digestion will take time. Ultimately, higher rates could dampen economic activity. Complex and uncertain environments don't necessarily mean a lack of opportunity as we've seen over decades navigating through all market cycles.

正如我們過去所說，我們的觀點是利率將在更長時間內保持在較高水準。經過 20 年的利率下降和央行市場幹預，整體資本成本已經上升，並且可能會持續一段時間。市場參與者不情願地接受了這一現實，並開始根據這一結果對資產進行重新定價。然而，正如市場機制轉變中經常發生的情況一樣，這個市場消化過程需要時間。最終，較高的利率可能會抑制經濟活動。複雜和不確定的環境並不一定意味著缺乏機會，正如我們幾十年來在所有市場週期中所看到的那樣。

Our goal investment teams continue to stay focused on generating excess alpha in this market environment. And with over $70 billion of dry powder across our platform, we have the flexibility to deploy capital and build on strategic partnerships.

我們的目標投資團隊繼續專注於在這個市場環境中產生超額阿爾法。我們的平台上擁有超過 700 億美元的乾粉，我們可以靈活地部署資本並建立戰略合作夥伴關係。

Now let me shift to areas of focus as we position the firm for growth. First, our insurance strategy has very strong underlying momentum. Fortitude's announced transaction with Lincoln Financial has met all closing conditions and is expected to close later this month. We will pick up approximately $24 billion in new AUM from the increase in Fortitude's general account assets as well as additional capital that rotates into Carlyle funds.

現在讓我談談我們為公司發展定位時的重點領域。首先，我們的保險策略有很強的內在動力。 Fortitude 宣布的與 Lincoln Financial 的交易已滿足所有成交條件，預計將於本月稍後完成。我們將從 Fortitude 普通帳戶資產的增加以及轉入凱雷基金的額外資本中獲得約 240 億美元的新資產管理規模。

In addition to this transaction, our team is developing new investment and distribution strategies that target the needs of insurance investors and our private credit business. We see substantial growth and potential new transactions across the insurance vertical.

除了這項交易之外，我們的團隊還在製定新的投資和分銷策略，以滿足保險投資者和我們私人信貸業務的需求。我們看到整個保險業的大幅成長和潛在的新交易。

Next, private wealth. The Carlyle brand has always been received well in the private wealth channel, and we're building on that momentum. We have raised over $45 billion from this channel over time. And this year, we have raised more than $3 billion. I feel good about this channel given the strength of our brand. Over the coming quarters and years, we expect to accelerate product development and see further growth in sales and distribution. There's a lot of upside in private wealth, and we expect our footprint to be significantly larger in coming years.

其次是私人財富。凱雷品牌在私人財富管道中一直受到好評，我們正以此為基礎繼續發展。隨著時間的推移，我們已經從這個管道籌集了超過 450 億美元。今年，我們籌集了超過 30 億美元。鑑於我們品牌的實力，我對這個管道感覺很好。在未來幾季和幾年中，我們預計將加速產品開發，並看到銷售和分銷的進一步成長。私人財富有很大的上升空間，我們預計未來幾年我們的足跡將顯著擴大。

Moving on, we're seeing momentum across several of our investment strategies in the market today. A few examples include Japan buyout, U.S. real estate and secondaries. Each of these strategies are on track to grow meaningfully due to strong investment performance, our deep client relationships and an attractive set of deployment opportunities.

接下來，我們在當今市場上看到了我們的幾種投資策略的勢頭。一些例子包括日本收購、美國房地產和二級市場。由於強勁的投資績效、深厚的客戶關係和一系列有吸引力的部署機會，這些策略都有望實現有意義的成長。

During the quarter, we raised $6.3 billion in new capital, bringing year-to-date fundraising to $20 billion. Overall, we've not been pleased with our pace of fundraising thus far in 2023, but our current expectation is for a step higher in new capital raise throughout the fourth quarter. With the final close of our latest U.S. buyout strategy, we now have $105 billion of corporate private equity assets under management, including $21 billion in dry powder across our CP funds that allow us to pursue deals of any size around the globe. We continue to raise capital for next vintage Asia, Europe and Japan buyout strategies, which should further add to this amount in the coming quarters.

本季度，我們籌集了 63 億美元的新資本，使年初至今的融資額達到 200 億美元。總體而言，我們對 2023 年迄今的融資速度並不滿意，但我們目前的預期是整個第四季的新融資速度會更高。隨著我們最新的美國收購策略的最終完成，我們現在管理著 1050 億美元的企業私募股權資產，其中包括 CP 基金中價值 210 億美元的乾粉，使我們能夠在全球範圍內進行任何規模的交易。我們將繼續為下一個亞洲、歐洲和日本收購策略籌集資金，這將在未來幾季進一步增加這筆金額。

Moving to credit. This is an area we're focused on accelerating our growth and expect to be significantly larger over time. Global Credit has built a diverse set of strategies to serve an increasing number of institutional and private wealth LPs to manage over $150 billion in assets today, nearly triple the level of just 3 years ago, including the world's largest CLO business. Our team is focused on the significant opportunity ahead to attract assets that migrate from bank balance sheets to private capital strategies, a trend we expect to play out over the next several years.

轉向信貸。這是我們專注於加速成長的領域，預計隨著時間的推移，規模將顯著擴大。 Global Credit 制定了一套多元化的策略，為越來越多的機構和私人財富有限合夥人提供服務，如今他們管理著超過1500 億美元的資產，幾乎是三年前水平的三倍，其中包括全球最大的CLO 業務。我們的團隊專注於未來的重大機遇，以吸引資產從銀行資產負債表轉向私人資本策略，我們預計這一趨勢將在未來幾年內顯現。

Finally, let me focus on expense management. We have made faster progress in this area than I originally expected. I give a lot of credit to the team for driving this process. We've identified several areas that have already led to a lower run rate of expenses. As a result, we delivered better-than-expected third quarter FRE. I expect an even larger impact in 2024. The changes we're making across the firm are improving our organizational structure, emphasizing our areas of strength, enhancing our ability to grow and helping to maintain best-in-class talent across our platform.

最後，讓我重點談談費用管理。我們在這方面取得的進展比我原先預期的還要快。我非常感謝團隊推動這項進程。我們已經確定了幾個已經導致費用運行率降低的領域。因此，我們第三季的 FRE 比預期好。我預計 2024 年會產生更大的影響。我們在整個公司所做的變革正在改善我們的組織結構，強調我們的優勢領域，增強我們的發展能力，並幫助在我們的平台上保留一流的人才。

Closing, our leadership team is focused on taking meaningful actions to drive long-term value for our investors and shareholders.

最後，我們的領導團隊致力於採取有意義的行動，為我們的投資者和股東帶來長期價值。

With that, let me now turn the call over to John.

現在讓我把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Harvey. Good morning, everyone. As Harvey highlighted, we delivered better-than-expected results this quarter, supported by our focus on expense management and our diversified global platform.

謝謝，哈維。大家，早安。正如哈維所強調的那樣，在我們對費用管理的關注和多元化的全球平台的支持下，我們本季度取得了好於預期的業績。

We produced $367 million in distributable earnings or $0.87 in DE per share. Year-to-date, we have generated over $1 billion of DE or $2.38 in DE per share. We finished the third quarter with $382 billion of assets under management, up 4% year-over-year. AUM is poised to increase upon the closing of the Fortitude transaction with Lincoln, which should occur in late November. We expect this transaction to add $40 million in incremental FRE.

我們產生了 3.67 億美元的可分配收益，即每股 DE 0.87 美元。今年迄今為止，我們已經產生了超過 10 億美元的 DE，即每股 DE 2.38 美元。截至第三季度，我們管理的資產規模為 3,820 億美元，年增 4%。 Fortitude 與 Lincoln 的交易將於 11 月底完成，AUM 預計將增加。我們預計此交易將為 FRE 增加 4000 萬美元。

Across our global platform, we deployed $4.1 billion of capital this quarter with nearly 1/3 in our solution strategies and over $1 billion in real estate, infrastructure and natural resources. Despite investment headwinds, we deployed $12.6 billion of capital year-to-date 2023.

在我們的全球平台上，本季我們部署了 41 億美元的資本，其中近 1/3 用於我們的解決方案策略，超過 10 億美元用於房地產、基礎設施和自然資源。儘管面臨投資阻力，2023 年迄今我們仍部署了 126 億美元的資本。

We realized $5.6 billion of proceeds this quarter for our LPs, largely across our energy, power, solutions and credit strategies. Year-to-date, we have returned over $15 billion in cash to our LPs, a higher level than we deployed. Carlyle is one of the few firms that has been able to deliver this outcome.

本季我們為有限合夥人實現了 56 億美元的收益，主要涉及我們的能源、電力、解決方案和信貸策略。今年迄今為止，我們已向有限合夥人返還超過 150 億美元現金，高於我們部署的水平。凱雷是少數能夠實現這項成果的公司之一。

We raised $6.3 billion in capital in the quarter, generally split between each of our segments. And as Harvey said, we expect a stronger fourth quarter of fundraising.

我們在本季籌集了 63 億美元的資本，通常分配給我們的各個部門。正如哈維所說，我們預計第四季的籌款活動將會更加強勁。

In Solutions, we raised $2.4 billion largely for our secondaries and co-investment strategies, which will continue to raise capital and finalize their fundraising in 2024.

在解決方案方面，我們籌集了 24 億美元，主要用於我們的二級市場和聯合投資策略，這些策略將繼續籌集資金並於 2024 年完成融資。

In Global Credit, we attracted new capital for opportunistic credit, direct lending and our private wealth fund, CTAC. An year-to-date, we have raised nearly $1 billion for Carlyle Strategic Solutions, our asset-based finance strategy.

在全球信貸領域，我們為機會信貸、直接貸款和我們的私人財富基金 CTAC 吸引了新資本。今年迄今為止，我們已為凱雷戰略解決方案（我們的資產融資策略）籌集了近 10 億美元。

In Global Private equity, we closed our eighth U.S. buyout fund and along with our growth sleeve, raised over $16 billion of committed capital. In addition, we raised capital across the latest vintage NGP strategy, Asia buyout and renewables.

在全球私募股權領域，我們關閉了第八個美國收購基金，並與我們的成長套一起籌集了超過 160 億美元的承諾資本。此外，我們還透過最新的 NGP 策略、亞洲收購和再生能源籌集了資金。

Shifting to fee-related earnings. Management fees totaled $518 million in the third quarter, up modestly compared to the prior year. We have $10 billion of pending fee-earning AUM that will activate fees largely as we deploy additional capital. Capital markets activity remained slow and transaction and advisory fees of $11 million declined sharply from last year. That said, we expect Q4 transaction revenue to grow as we have good visibility into near-term fee generation. Fee-related performance revenue of $23 million were higher than the third quarter of last year, but as we previously signaled, it declined sequentially. Global Credit FRPR continue to move higher with good asset flows and strong performance in our evergreen products, while Global Private Equity declined sequentially, a trend that is likely to persist in Q4.

轉向與費用相關的收入。第三季管理費總額為 5.18 億美元，較去年同期小幅成長。我們有 100 億美元的未決收費資產管理規模，隨著我們部署額外資本，這些資產將在很大程度上啟動費用。資本市場活動依然緩慢，交易和諮詢費用較去年大幅下降 1,100 萬美元。也就是說，我們預計第四季度的交易收入將會成長，因為我們對近期費用有很好的了解。與費用相關的績效收入為 2300 萬美元，高於去年第三季度，但正如我們之前指出的那樣，該收入環比下降。由於良好的資產流動和我們常青產品的強勁表現，全球信貸 FRPR 繼續走高，而全球私募股權則連續下降，這一趨勢可能會在第四季度持續下去。

Cash compensation and benefits of $256 million declined more than $30 million compared to the second quarter due to lower fee-related performance revenue compensation as well as our efforts to operate the firm more efficiently. To date, we have actioned approximately $40 million in annual run rate expense savings. Our work here remains in the early innings.

現金薪酬和福利為 2.56 億美元，與第二季度相比減少了 3000 萬美元以上，原因是與費用相關的績效收入薪酬下降以及我們為更高效地運營公司所做的努力。迄今為止，我們已節省了約 4000 萬美元的年度運行費用。我們在這裡的工作仍處於早期階段。

G&A expenses were also lower as we benefited from expense discipline and lower fundraising costs. We expect G&A expense to modestly increase in Q4 due to year-end seasonality that we remain focused on controlling annual expense growth in 2024.

由於我們受益於費用紀律和較低的籌款成本，一般管理費用也較低。由於年末季節性因素，我們預計第四季度的一般管理費用將小幅增加，我們仍將重點放在控制 2024 年年度費用增長上。

Overall, third quarter fee-related earnings of $205 million were relatively flat to the last quarter. We now expect to deliver a higher level of FRE in the second half of 2023 relative to the first half. FRE margin in the third quarter was 37%, and we remain focused on driving this margin higher over time.

總體而言，第三季與費用相關的收益為 2.05 億美元，與上一季相對持平。我們現在預計 2023 年下半年的 FRE 水準將高於上半年。第三季的 FRE 利潤率為 37%，我們仍然致力於隨著時間的推移提高這一利潤率。

Our net accrued carry balance totaled $3.5 billion with a small decline from Q2 due to realizations. Our global carry fund portfolio appreciated 2% in the quarter with relative strength in infrastructure, natural resources and credit. And our real estate portfolio continued to be pressured by higher rates despite strong underlying asset performance.

我們的淨應計利差餘額總計 35 億美元，由於變現，較第二季略有下降。我們的全球套利基金投資組合在本季升值了 2%，基礎設施、自然資源和信貸相對強勁。儘管基礎資產表現強勁，但我們的房地產投資組合仍繼續受到利率上升的壓力。

Wrapping up, despite the challenging backdrop, we're executing across the firm and see good opportunities across our global platform to create value for both investors and shareholders.

總而言之，儘管面臨充滿挑戰的背景，我們仍在整個公司範圍內執行，並在我們的全球平台上看到了為投資者和股東創造價值的良好機會。

With that, let me turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自自主研究中心的 Patrick Davitt。

Could you better frame any potential timing dynamics between 3Q and 4Q gross flows? Maybe a better idea of how much AUM has already closed so far in 4Q? And then more broadly, perhaps update us on your thoughts on the potential sizing of remaining large funds in the market over the next 6 to 12 months?

您能否更好地建立第三季和第四季總流量之間潛在的時間動態？也許更好地了解第四季度迄今為止 AUM 已經關閉了多少？然後更廣泛地說，也許可以告訴我們您對未來 6 到 12 個月市場上剩餘大型基金的潛在規模的最新想法？

So as I said, Patrick, and thanks for the question. As I said in my prepared remarks, we're not particularly pleased with the year-to-date fundraising. I think -- and we talked about this a bit. With my arrival, one of the things that I really wanted to focus on as a new CEO and a new company was really spend a lot of time internally, having my people get to know me and then a lot of time externally. I've now met with, I think, over 200 of our investors globally in about 9 months. And I can really feel the momentum building.

正如我所說，帕特里克，謝謝你的提問。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們對今年迄今為止的籌款活動並不是特別滿意。我想——我們對此進行了一些討論。隨著我的到來，作為一名新執行長和一家新公司，我真正想要關注的事情之一就是在內部花費大量時間，讓我的員工了解我，然後在外部花費大量時間。我想，在大約 9 個月的時間裡，我已經會見了全球 200 多名投資者。我真切地感受到勢頭正在增強。

And so we would expect a meaningful step up in fourth quarter fundraising. I can't promise these things. Market environments could be delays. But it feels quite good. And then when you think about the funds we have in the marketplace now, real estate, secondaries, Japan, I think as we come into 2024 -- and as I said, the momentum feels quite positive, and we'll see how fourth quarter shakes out, but we're feeling pretty optimistic.

因此，我們預計第四季度的籌款活動將取得有意義的進展。我無法承諾這些事。市場環境可能會出現延遲。但感覺還是蠻不錯的。然後，當你想到我們現在市場上的基金、房地產、二級市場、日本時，我認為當我們進入 2024 年時，正如我所說，勢頭感覺相當積極，我們將看到第四季度的表現如何動搖了，但我們感覺相當樂觀。

Our next question comes from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

I was hoping if we can dig into the expenses a little bit more -- so nice progress on expenses so far this quarter, you alluded to run rate savings, and there is more to go from there. So maybe help us frame kind of what's really run rate in the third quarter? How do you expect that to shake out into the end of the year? And then more importantly, what are your early thoughts on FRE growth and expense trajectory for next year?

我希望我們能進一步深入研究一下費用——本季度到目前為止，費用方面取得了很好的進展，你提到了運行率節省，接下來還有更多的工作要做。那麼也許可以幫助我們了解第三季的實際運行率？您預計今年底情況會如何？更重要的是，您對明年 FRE 成長和費用軌蹟的早期想法是什麼？

Alex, it's John. As we said on our second quarter earnings call, we really want to drive our FRE margin higher. It's a key focus area for the firm. In the third quarter, we saw a slight uptick in the margin. But we -- look, we've been really focused on our expense base. I think we've made some progress. As I said earlier, we've already actioned $40 million run rate. And I expect this number quite frankly to grow as we continue to focus on expenses.

亞歷克斯，這是約翰。正如我們在第二季財報電話會議上所說，我們確實希望提高 FRE 利潤率。這是該公司的重點關注領域。在第三季度，我們看到利潤率略有上升。但我們——看，我們一直非常關注我們的支出基礎。我認為我們已經取得了一些進展。正如我之前所說，我們已經執行了 4000 萬美元的運行費用。坦白說，隨著我們繼續關注支出，我預計這個數字將會成長。

And I would say, overall, we've gotten at the expenses faster than we thought we would. I've been in the CFO seat for 5 weeks, and I'm pretty pleased with the pace of which -- in terms of what we're getting at. Look, every single expense is on the table, I'd tell you. There is no such thing as a sacred expense, but this is very much a process. And I would just describe it as very, very early days. But overall, we're pleased with the progress we've made in the third quarter.

我想說的是，總的來說，我們的支出速度比我們想像的還要快。我擔任財務長已經五週了，就我們所取得的成果而言，我對這一進程的速度非常滿意。看，我告訴你，每一項費用都在桌面上。不存在什麼神聖的開支，但這在很大程度上是一個過程。我只想將其描述為非常非常早期的時期。但總的來說，我們對第三季的進展感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的克雷格·西根塔勒。

So my question is on the CLO business. And just given that you just did the CBAM deal and you're the largest CLO manager in the world now, we thought you'd have a unique perspective on this. But as you noted, defaults are picking up off a very, very low base. I wanted your perspective on where you see them trending over the next year? And also, given the subordination inherent in the CLO, what are you thinking in terms of loss translation with the equity first loss tranches? And also, I remember this issue came up a few years ago, but are there scenarios where there could be triggers where management fees could turn off the CLO vehicles?

我的問題是關於 CLO 業務的。鑑於您剛剛完成了 CBAM 交易，並且您現在是世界上最大的 CLO 經理，我們認為您對此會有獨特的視角。但正如您所指出的，違約的基數非常非常低。我想知道您對明年它們的趨勢有何看法？而且，考慮到 CLO 固有的從屬地位，您對股權第一損失部分的損失轉換有何看法？而且，我記得這個問題幾年前就出現過，但是是否存在可能會觸發管理費關閉 CLO 車輛的情況？

Let me just comment on the broader nature of our CLO business. So the team has done actually an excellent job. We have an over 20-year history here in managing that business. We're quite proud of the fact that the team has taken the mantle of largest in the world. Our expectation has been implied by our comments is that we think we've been in a very benign credit environment and would expect credit to deteriorate on average from here. Having said that, from the standpoint of putting capital to work, I think it's a fantastic time to be putting capital to work.

讓我簡單評論一下我們 CLO 業務的更廣泛性質。所以團隊其實做得非常出色。我們在管理該業務方面擁有 20 多年的歷史。我們為該團隊成為世界上最大的團隊而感到非常自豪。我們的評論暗示了我們的預期是，我們認為我們一直處於非常良性的信貸環境中，並且預計信貸從現在開始平均會惡化。話雖如此，從資本發揮作用的角度來看，我認為現在是資本發揮作用的絕佳時機。

If you look at default rates, over the past couple of years, and even today, they're running low relative to average points in history. And so our full expectation is that credit would be -- that credit defaults across the industry whether it's in banking, private markets, et cetera, that you're going to see this pick up, particularly as you come into refinancing walls and later '24, '25 and '26 as long as rates stay high in markets, stay where they are, which again is our expectation.

如果你看一下違約率，在過去的幾年裡，甚至在今天，它們相對於歷史平均值來說仍然很低。因此，我們的全部預期是，整個行業的信貸違約，無論是在銀行業、私人市場等領域，你都會看到這種情況有所好轉，特別是當你進入再融資牆以及後來的情況時。 24、25 和26 只要市場利率維持在高位，就維持在原位，這也是我們的預期。

So the team is doing a really -- very, very good job of managing this. To give you a little detail strategically about how we're thinking about it. We're in the process right now investing in the business. We have a fund that's in the process of being raised, should close end of November, December, which will be a captive equity fund, which will help really support the business through growth. In terms of any specific triggers or anything like that, why don't we just take that offline, and then we'll have Dan follow up with you on those level of details.

所以團隊在管理這方面做得非常非常好。從戰略上向您提供一些關於我們如何考慮它的細節。我們現在正在投資該業務。我們有一檔基金正在籌集中，應該會在 11 月底、12 月底結束，這將是一檔自保股權基金，這將有助於真正支持業務成長。就任何特定的觸發因素或類似的事情而言，我們為什麼不直接將其離線，然後我們將讓 Dan 就這些細節級別與您進行跟進。

I'm happy to do so. Craig, I'll give you a call.

我很高興這樣做。克雷格，我打電話給你。

Our next question comes from Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

As we think about fundraising and energy, NGP 13 seems to have had a strong start and the performance of prior vintages seems to be quite good. I think NGP 12 was a smaller fund, could 13 be a record-sized natural resource fund for Carlyle? And then you had good realizations in energy this past quarter. How does the pipeline look for energy realizations as we look out over the next few quarters?

當我們考慮籌款和能源時，NGP 13 似乎有一個強勁的開局，並且之前年份的表現似乎相當不錯。我認為 NGP 12 是一檔規模較小的基金，13 能否成為凱雷創紀錄規模的自然資源基金？然後，上個季度您在能源方面取得了良好的認識。當我們展望未來幾季時，該管道如何尋求能源實現？

So I think the teams have done an excellent job. Our Europe-based team, I think, in particular, has done an excellent job in terms of monetizations and the opportunity set. This area, when you look across our entire complex of energy, infrastructure, renewables, I really think we have sort of a unique team and sort of our capability set. So I think broadly speaking, this is an opportunity for growth. I'm not going to get into specifics about particular monetization because obviously that's subject to market environment. But I can tell you, we feel quite confident with the team and their performance, and they continue to do an excellent job. So it's too difficult for me to point specifically to individual asset monetizations, but the pipeline feels pretty good.

所以我認為團隊做得非常出色。我認為，我們的歐洲團隊在貨幣化和機會集方面尤其做得非常出色。在這個領域，當你縱觀我們整個能源、基礎設施、再生能源綜合體時，我真的認為我們擁有一支獨特的團隊和我們的能力組合。所以我認為從廣義上講，這是一個成長的機會。我不會詳細討論特定的貨幣化，因為顯然這取決於市場環境。但我可以告訴你，我們對團隊和他們的表現非常有信心，他們將繼續出色地工作。因此，我很難具體指出個人資產貨幣化，但管道感覺相當不錯。

I think more importantly, the breadth of the team. And when we think about the opportunity set and trends over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years, we feel really, really well positioned. And I think you could broadly discuss this in terms of energy transition and climate. I think we have some very talented folks on the ground.

我認為更重要的是團隊的廣度。當我們思考未來 5 年、10 年、15 年、20 年的機會集和趨勢時，我們感覺自己處於非常非常有利的位置。我認為你可以從能源轉型和氣候方面廣泛討論這個問題。我認為我們有一些非常有才華的人。

Next question comes from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So I appreciate -- I think you dangled some optimistic comments about some products being developed in both insurance and private wealth. And you gave us some -- a lot to chew on in terms of all your dry powder and seeking investments. So my question is just more strategic. Do the individual businesses have plans that it targets goals that they're working on? And the question is, when do we outsiders get a glimpse of you bringing that all together and how to think about the next couple of years? I appreciate that you -- you came in midstream in this, Harvey, but it's been a long wait for investors.

所以我很欣賞——我認為您對保險和私人財富領域正在開發的一些產品提出了一些樂觀的評論。你給了我們一些——在你所有的乾粉和尋求投資方面有很多值得咀嚼的東西。所以我的問題更具戰略意義。各個企業是否有計劃來實現他們正在努力的目標？問題是，我們這些局外人甚麼時候才能看到你把這一切整合在一起，以及如何思考未來幾年？我很感激你——哈維，你在這件事上走到了中間，但投資者已經等了很長時間了。

That's fine. It's my responsibility, Glenn. I appreciate the question. So let's just go back to sort of how I think about it and how the team thinks about it. And our approach really is, what I'll call, not to sound boring, our textbook as principles based. And by that, I mean, there's a very methodical process that we're going through that ranges from business reviews, interactions with LPs, making sure we have all the adjacencies where we think we can provide the most value to our investors, how we can drive growth, how we can manage expenses and how we want to create operating flexibility across the entire platform. So all those things are in process.

沒關係。這是我的責任，格倫。我很欣賞這個問題。那麼讓我們回到我的想法以及團隊的想法。我們的方法確實是，我所說的，不要聽起來無聊，我們的教科書是基於原則的。我的意思是，我們正在經歷一個非常有條理的流程，從業務審查到與有限合夥人的互動，確保我們擁有我們認為可以為投資者提供最大價值的所有鄰接點，我們如何可以推動成長，我們如何管理費用以及我們希望如何在整個平台上創造營運靈活性。所以所有這些事情都在進行中。

In terms of specific areas of growth and progress we've made to date, I feel really good about the momentum. If you and I were catching up back in February and you had said, hey, Harvey, where do you think the team would be with you in November. I don't think we would have made this much progress. I don't -- nobody -- I'm not patting anybody in the back here, but I don't know that we would have transitioned the CFO, put in a new Head of Technology, brought in a new Head of Distribution, brought in a new Head of Wealth and really begun to shape the architecture of the firm in a way, which I think really allows the firm and the entire leadership team to mobilize the firm. So I feel really good about that.

就我們迄今為止所取得的具體成長和進步領域而言，我對這種勢頭感到非常滿意。如果你和我在二月重聚，你會說，嘿，哈維，你認為十一月球隊會在哪裡和你在一起。我認為我們不會有這麼大的進展。我不——沒有人——我不會在背後拍拍任何人，但我不知道我們是否會調換首席財務官，任命新的技術主管，任命新的分銷主管，引進了一位新的財富主管，並真正開始以某種方式塑造公司的架構，我認為這確實讓公司和整個領導團隊能夠動員公司。所以我對此感覺很好。

In terms of update, what you call yourself an outsider, update for outsiders. As I've said to you before, that's really a -- to me, that's an output and we have to run this very sort of surgically methodical process. But the foundation is really coming together quite well. And so we'll come back to you as soon as we're ready to hit. But to me, that's an output.

更新方面，你說自己是外人，就為外人更新。正如我之前對你們說過的，對我來說，這確實是一個輸出，我們必須運行這個非常有條理的手術過程。但基礎確實很好地結合在一起。因此，一旦我們準備好進攻，我們就會立即回覆您。但對我來說，這就是一種輸出。

And the last thing I'll say is I truly appreciate your urgency around this. I can promise you, John, myself, the whole leadership team, folks in the businesses, we have way more urgency than you do. So as soon as we're in a position to do all that, we will. I know it's not a great answer for you, but that's our process.

我要說的最後一件事是，我真的很感激你們對此的緊迫感。我可以向你保證，約翰，我本人，整個領導團隊，企業界的人們，我們比你更迫切。因此，一旦我們能夠做到這一切，我們就會這麼做。我知道這對您來說不是一個很好的答案，但這就是我們的流程。

Our next question comes from Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾·賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

I wanted to ask on private credit. Just curious how you see the impact of the new proposed bank capital rules on the opportunity set for private credit? And in particular, which product areas do you anticipate banks pulling back from the most? And which areas and which opportunities that's you think are most attractive for Carlyle versus which areas may be less attractive? And maybe you could talk to some of the steps you may need to take in order to capture the opportunities set. Are there any areas you need to fill in a bit more?

我想問一下私人信貸。只是好奇您如何看待新提議的銀行資本規則對私人信貸機會的影響？特別是，您預計銀行會從哪些產品領域撤出最多？您認為哪些領域和哪些機會對凱雷最具吸引力，而哪些領域可能吸引力較小？也許您可以談談為了抓住機會而可能需要採取的一些步驟。有哪些地方需要多填寫一些嗎？

Sure. So I think as you all know, I was the Chief Financial Officer at Goldman from 2012 to 2017. And so that was really the first significant wave of regulatory change that came through the banking system. And so I saw that process upclose. I would expect this process to be similar across the entire banking system, particularly on the back of Silicon Valley Bank, Republic Bank, et cetera. And so my expectation, and I'd say there's a very wide distribution of potential outcomes here, but I'll give you my personal expectation.

當然。所以我想你們都知道，我在 2012 年至 2017 年期間擔任高盛財務長。這確實是銀行體系監管變革的第一波重大浪潮。所以我近距離地看到了這個過程。我預期這個過程在整個銀行體系中都是相似的，特別是在矽谷銀行、共和銀行等銀行的支持下。所以我的期望，我想說這裡潛在結果的分佈非常廣泛，但我會給你我個人的期望。

My personal expectation is there'll be sort of a flurry of activity, maybe one-off transactions. We're involved in several dialogues on our side, but I think you'll see a flurry of activity. But I really think this is a process that really plays out 2, 3, 4, 5 years. And I think it really is as simple as the regulatory community doing their job to identify where they feel their systemic risk and really not the best liability asset management, which we've seen already in a number of cases. And in private markets, as you know, we have long-term capital and the ability to deploy that capital.

我個人的期望是會有一系列活動，也許是一次性交易。我們這邊正在進行多次對話，但我想你會看到一系列的活動。但我真的認為這是一個真正需要2、3、4、5年的過程。我認為這確實很簡單，就像監管機構在做他們的工作來確定他們在哪裡感受到系統性風險一樣，這實際上並不是最好的負債資產管理，我們已經在許多案例中看到了這一點。如你所知，在私募市場，我們擁有長期資本和部署該資本的能力。

So I think there's sort of 2 phase. It's like a quick phase where you see maybe a flurry transactions over the next year. And then you see a longer term settling in where we, as Carlyle and other market participants, we can provide -- we provide very valuable capital to borrowers and to the economy.

所以我認為有兩個階段。這就像一個快速階段，您可能會在明年看到混亂的交易。然後你會看到我們作為凱雷和其他市場參與者所能提供的長期穩定性——我們為借款人和經濟提供非常有價值的資本。

Where that plays out? I think that's in the full gamut. I mean, we've already seen it sort of in leveraged loans and sponsor lending, that's a multiyear. That's an old process. And I think it will continue to extend to those most heavily weighted -- risk-weighted assets, could be in the asset-backed market. You could see things in consumer loans. Certainly, this is going to take multiple years, but we're going to have to work through as an economy and as a system, the real estate debt that exists out there. So I think it's going to be very broad based. But I actually think, again, the longer-term opportunity set ends up playing out over multiple years.

這在哪裡發揮作用？我認為這是完整的。我的意思是，我們已經在槓桿貸款和贊助貸款中看到了這種情況，這是一個多年的過程。這是一個古老的過程。我認為它將繼續擴展到資產支持市場中那些權重最高的風險加權資產。你可以在消費貸款中看到一些東西。當然，這將需要多年的時間，但我們必須作為一個經濟體和一個系統來解決現有的房地產債務。所以我認為它的基礎將會非常廣泛。但我實際上再次認為，長期機會最終會在多年後發揮作用。

Our next question comes from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布倫南霍肯。

So I appreciate the focus on expenses and definitely encouraging to hear your messaging there. So curious how you strike a balance in between discipline and efficiency? And I believe there were some onetime items in private equity in the quarter. Could you maybe help us size those so we can understand what the right base is to think about moving forward?

因此，我很欣賞對費用的關注，並且絕對鼓勵聽到您在那裡傳達的訊息。很好奇您如何在紀律和效率之間取得平衡？我相信本季私募股權中有一些一次性項目。您能否幫助我們確定這些目標的大小，以便我們了解考慮前進的正確基礎是什麼？

Yes, Brennan, it's John. Look, we're very focused on expenses, but we're more focused on growth. We do see more opportunity for some expense savings. We're not going to be cutting anywhere near the point to where it impacts growth. We're very focused on growth.

是的，布倫南，是約翰。看，我們非常關注支出，但我們更關注成長。我們確實看到了更多節省費用的機會。我們不會在影響成長的點附近削減任何開支。我們非常注重成長。

In terms of the G&A, I would describe the beat of kind of $20 million-ish as roughly $5 million was more a result of our focus in work around G&A expenses. The rest of the $20 million beat -- the $15 million-ish was really more one-off items that likely won't occur again in the fourth quarter. And as I said in my remarks, we do expect the fourth quarter G&A to trend higher than the third quarter, but we're very focused on managing our G&A number in the fourth quarter in 2024.

就 G&A 而言，我將 2000 萬美元左右的支出描述為大約 500 萬美元，更多的是我們專注於 G&A 費用工作的結果。其餘 2000 萬美元的支出——1500 萬美元左右的支出實際上是一次性項目，可能不會在第四季度再次出現。正如我在演講中所說，我們確實預計第四季度的 G&A 趨勢將高於第三季度，但我們非常注重管理 2024 年第四季度的 G&A 數字。

I think John said it perfectly. I think this is about 2 things, high level. One is about operational excellence. And as John said earlier, there's nothing sacred. And so we're going to be exceptionally disciplined. I think the other thing is it just creates a lot of operational flexibility to invest in growth. And growth areas like wealth, parts of credit, insurance, those are areas where we're going to make sure that we have the resources to participate. But it gives us a lot of operating flexibility.

我認為約翰說得很完美。我認為這涉及兩件事，高水準。一是關於卓越營運。正如約翰之前所說，沒有什麼是神聖的。因此，我們將非常遵守紀律。我認為另一件事是，它為投資成長創造了很大的營運彈性。諸如財富、部分信貸、保險等成長領域，我們將確保我們有資源參與這些領域。但它給了我們很大的操作彈性。

I'm really pleased what the team has done in a short period of time to come up with $40 million of run rate savings, which we'll keep building on, I think, is -- again, I give them a lot of credit.

我真的很高興團隊在短時間內節省了 4000 萬美元的運行率，我認為我們將繼續在此基礎上繼續努力，我再次給予他們很大的信任。

Our next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

And, John, thanks for the -- just building on, I guess, on the last answer on the expense side, thanks for the nonrecurring disclosure there. The $40 million run rate savings is -- if you can just talk about, is that starting in the fourth quarter or is that partially in the third quarter? And then just as more structurally as we move into 2024, I think you mentioned you think you're in the early innings in this regard. Any sense of whether that -- you think that you can keep that line either flat or down? I know you definitely want to invest for growth. And then just any commentary around that $40 million between G&A and compensation and whether any change to the compensation structure is contemplated for 2024 or is being worked on at this stage?

而且，約翰，謝謝你——我想，只是在費用方面的最後一個答案的基礎上，感謝你的非經常性披露。 4000 萬美元的運行率節省是——如果你能簡單談談的話，是從第四季開始還是部分在第三季？然後，就像我們進入 2024 年一樣，我認為您提到您認為在這方面您還處於早期階段。你是否認為你可以保持這條線平坦或向下？我知道您肯定想投資以實現成長。那麼，關於 G&A 和薪酬之間 4000 萬美元的任何評論，以及是否考慮在 2024 年或現階段對薪酬結構進行任何改變？

Yes. Brian, it's John. I would think of this more as a 2024 run rate number. I mean, look, I've been in the seat 5 weeks, as I said earlier, and we really just started this process. That's why I kind of referred to it as the early innings of this kind of expense review process. In terms of competition, I mean, look, we're a human capital business. Our largest expense is obviously compensation. It's certainly something that we're very focused on. We're very aware of what our competitors have done on the compensation front. And I would just say it's part of the overall expense review going forward.

是的。布萊恩，是約翰。我更傾向於將其視為 2024 年的運行率數字。我的意思是，看，正如我之前所說，我已經坐了 5 週了，我們真的剛開始這個過程。這就是為什麼我將其稱為此類費用審核流程的早期階段。就競爭而言，我的意思是，你看，我們是一家人力資本企業。我們最大的支出顯然是補償。這當然是我們非常關注的事情。我們非常了解競爭對手在薪酬方面所做的事情。我只想說這是未來整體費用審查的一部分。

And again, look, I think in overall, the $40 million number is largely comp-driven, compensation-driven and kind of, I would say, 15% of it's roughly G&A.

再說一遍，我認為總體而言，4000 萬美元的數字主要是由薪酬驅動、薪酬驅動的，我想說，其中 15% 大約是一般管理費用。

Our next question comes from Brian Mckenna with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券的布萊恩麥肯納 (Brian Mckenna)。

So Investment Solutions is in the middle of a strong fundraising cycle. And we should see some nice expansion into 2024. But how should we think about growth here longer term? And are there any other strategic opportunities within this business away from the core strategies that could drive some incremental growth over time?

因此，投資解決方案正處於強勁的籌款週期之中。到 2024 年，我們應該會看到一些不錯的擴張。但我們應該如何考慮這裡的長期成長？除了核心策略之外，該業務中是否還有其他策略機會可以隨著時間的推移推動一些增量成長？

Look, so the short answer to that is yes. So it's -- look, it's a fantastic team. It's a great business. It's kind of where the puck is, right? Primary across the industry is a little slower. Secondary activity is a lot higher. Our expectation is that all be sustained for a while. There are a number of different business adjacencies that fit nicely here that the team is growing and building. So I would expect to see this as an area of growth over the next several years, and we have a fantastic team.

聽著，簡短的回答是肯定的。所以，看，這是一支出色的團隊。這是一項偉大的事業。這就是冰球所在的地方，對吧？整個產業的主要發展速度要慢一些。次要活動要高得多。我們的期望是一切都能持續一段時間。團隊正在成長和建立的許多不同的業務鄰接非常適合這裡。因此，我預計這將是未來幾年的一個成長領域，而且我們擁有一支出色的團隊。

Our next question comes from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

I wanted to ask on the FRE margin outlook? And maybe just at the risk of being a dead horse, just want to ask on expenses and dig in a bit further, whether the $40 million of run rate cost savings contemplate any incremental investment? So whether it's a gross versus net savings figure, given you do have a lot of growth priorities as well, Harvey, that you outlined? And how we should think about the trajectory for FRE margins in '24 versus this quarter's jumping off point, given the realization of some of those efficiency benefits?

我想問FRE的保證金前景如何？也許只是冒著死馬的風險，只是想詢問一下費用並進一步深入了解，4000 萬美元的運行成本節省是否考慮了任何增量投資？那麼，考慮到您確實還有很多成長優先事項，哈維，您概述了這是否是總儲蓄數字與淨儲蓄數字？考慮到其中一些效率優勢的實現，我們應該如何考慮 24 年 FRE 利潤率與本季起點的軌跡？

Yes. So I mean, John talked on fair bit of this. I think -- I don't want to disappoint you, but we're not going to give you real specifics on 2024. I would tell you that there's a couple of levers that we're working on, which when we're ready, we'll dig into a little bit more. But I would say there's sort of 3 very, very big, high-level things happening. One is the run rate savings. And while that's meaningful, and I'm really proud, this is not just about cutting expenses.

是的。所以我的意思是，約翰談到了這一點。我想——我不想讓你們失望，但我們不會向你們提供 2024 年的真正細節。我會告訴你們，我們正在研究幾個槓桿，當我們準備好時，我們將進一步深入研究。但我想說，有 3 件非常非常重大、高水準的事情正在發生。一是運轉率節省。雖然這很有意義，而且我真的很自豪，但這不僅僅是削減開支。

When you look at the transaction that the team has completed in Insurance. As you look at that transaction over the next 2 years, that will drive about $40 million of incremental FRE adjust in that transaction. In the undrawn capital that John talked about, that will drive about $90 million of top line fees, the $10 billion. So there's a lot happening in terms of FRE growth.

當你查看團隊在保險領域完成的交易。如果你看看未來 2 年的交易，你會發現該交易中的 FRE 調整將增加約 4,000 萬美元。約翰談到的未提取資本中，這將帶來約 9,000 萬美元的頂線費用，即 100 億美元。因此，FRE 的成長發生了許多變化。

And then, of course, you have the fundraising that we've talked about. And as I said, I feel really good about the momentum. I don't know I thought I would 9 months in. But there's work to do. There's a lot of work to do.

當然，還有我們討論過的募款活動。正如我所說，我對這種勢頭感覺非常好。我不知道我以為我會在 9 個月後完成。但還有很多工作要做。還有很多工作要做。

Our next question comes from Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的丹·範農。

Harvey, you mentioned private wealth as an area that you can be much larger in $3 billion year-to-date in close. Can you talk about what's in the market today? And then how you see that evolving from a product perspective and what you think is a reasonable goal in terms of organic growth from that channel?

哈維，您提到私人財富是一個可以擴大到今年迄今為止 30 億美元規模的領域。您能談談今天市場上有什麼嗎？然後，您如何從產品角度看待這種演變，以及您認為該通路有機成長的合理目標是什麼？

So I'm really enthusiastic about this as a long-term area of growth for Carlyle. We've had products in the market for a long time. As I mentioned, we've raised $45 billion across closed and evergreen funds. The wealth team has grown pretty substantially, but there's more work to do on product development, growth of the team. We're investing quite heavily. I'm personally spending a fair bit of time in this space. And it really became a big initiative for me in, I don't know, month 6 or month 7. And I feel very optimistic here.

因此，我對此非常熱衷於將其作為凱雷的長期成長領域。我們的產品已經推出市場很久了。正如我所提到的，我們已經透過封閉型基金和常青基金籌集了 450 億美元。財富團隊已經有了相當大的成長，但在產品開發、團隊成長方面還有更多工作要做。我們的投資相當大。我個人在這個領域花了相當多的時間。我不知道是在第六個月還是第七個月，這確實成為了我的一項重大舉措。我在這裡感到非常樂觀。

I think as an industry, we have to be really thoughtful as capital continues to migrate into the sector. I think if you look at the wealth assets around the world, which we all expect will continue to grow, it's a very small percentage in alternatives. So this is going to play out over a decade. But as this growth happens, I think Carlyle, the brand recognition, the history of the firm, the historic presence of the founders, David Rubenstein, brand in and of itself. I think these are all really, really additive, powerful things that provide momentum for Carlyle, but this is going to play out over years. I think most importantly, we just have to have the right products to ensure that the wealth investor gets really high performance, and that's what we're focused on.

我認為作為一個行業，隨著資本不斷湧入該行業，我們必須深思熟慮。我認為，如果你看看世界各地的財富資產，我們都預期這些資產將繼續成長，那麼它在替代品中所佔的比例非常小。所以這將持續十年以上。但隨著這種成長的發生，我認為凱雷的品牌認知、公司的歷史、創辦人大衛魯賓斯坦的歷史影響力，以及品牌本身。我認為這些都是真正非常附加的、強大的東西，為凱雷提供了動力，但這將在多年後發揮作用。我認為最重要的是，我們只需要擁有合適的產品來確保財富投資者獲得真正的高性能，這就是我們所關注的重點。

Our next question comes from Ben Budish with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的本·布迪什。

I wanted to follow up sort of on the discussion of investing for growth versus kind of cost savings. Harvey, you mentioned a number of sort of growth areas, private credit and the asset-backed opportunity. Insurance, you talked about developing new investment and distribution strategies. And earlier, you talked about the kind of the progress you made in terms of hiring. So can we kind of circling back to all of that. In terms of the future hiring, future growth, do you feel like you have the capabilities you need to sort of go after those opportunity sets or where might you need to kind of increase hiring? Is it on the investment side, the distribution side? Or do you feel like you can kind of do what you want to do with what you have?

我想跟進投資成長與節省成本的討論。哈維，您提到了一些成長領域、私人信貸和資產支持機會。保險業，您談到了製定新的投資和分銷策略。早些時候，您談到了在招募方面取得的進展。那麼我們可以回到所有這些嗎？就未來的招募、未來的成長而言，您是否覺得自己具備抓住這些機會所需的能力，或者您可能需要在哪些方面增加招募？是在投資方面，還是在分銷方面？或者你覺得你可以用你擁有的東西做你想做的事嗎？

So -- well, first of all, I think the team is amazing. Broadly speaking, I've been so impressed since I got here with the business leaders. World-class organizations, they know how to redeploy resources and how to effectively tap the brakes, hit the gas. We're not creating new science over here in terms of how we think about expense management and reinvestment. And as I said, the key here is to create operational flexibility. We're not just trying to drive the cost structure down. We want to make sure that we have the best people, retain the best people, attract the best people. So all this is about creating that operational flexibility.

所以——首先，我認為這個團隊非常棒。總的來說，自從我來到這裡與商界領袖見面以來，我留下了深刻的印象。世界一流的組織，他們知道如何重新部署資源，如何有效地踩剎車、猛踩油門。就我們如何看待費用管理和再投資而言，我們並沒有在這裡創造新的科學。正如我所說，這裡的關鍵是創造營運彈性。我們不僅僅是試圖降低成本結構。我們希望確保擁有最優秀的人才、留住最優秀的人才、吸引最優秀的人才。因此，所有這一切都是為了創造營運靈活性。

The insurance team is really vastly built out through our partners in Fortitude. I think over time as well scales will continue to scale, but we made meaningful investment there. And I think the investing engine in credit is broadly built out. Some of this will be more about at the margin. But I don't see as much investments or big gaping holes at this stage. So certainly, things will build. And the world is going to be dynamic. And so we'll pivot to where it's dynamic. But we're certainly very focused on growth, but we're equally focused on running this business in the most disciplined possible way.

保險團隊確實是透過我們的 Fortitude 合作夥伴建立的。我認為隨著時間的推移，規模將繼續擴大，但我們在那裡進行了有意義的投資。我認為信貸投資引擎已經廣泛建立。其中一些將更多地涉及邊緣。但現階段我並沒有看到那麼多的投資或巨大的漏洞。所以可以肯定的是，事情將會發展。世界將變得充滿活力。因此，我們將轉向充滿活力的地方。但我們當然非常注重成長，但我們同樣注重以最嚴格的方式經營這項業務。

Our next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Great. Maybe Harvey, if you could just give us an update on the capital markets business. I know that's an area you have been focused on. Where you think there's a lot of opportunity for Carlyle and the product set that you have and the talent you have, right, currently? Maybe as we move into 2024, is that an area where you think you can significantly build the revenue stream on a year-over-year basis provided, of course, that we have a fairly normal market environment? Or is that more of a little bit of a longer-term build?

偉大的。也許是哈維，如果您能給我們介紹一下資本市場業務的最新情況的話。我知道這是您一直在關注的領域。您認為凱雷以及您擁有的產品組合和人才目前有很多機會，對嗎？也許當我們進入 2024 年時，您認為在這個領域您可以逐年大幅增加收入流，當然，前提是我們有一個相當正常的市場環境？或者這更多的是一個更長期的建設？

No, I don't think it's a longer-term build. We don't want to be the biggest in the world here in capital markets. And that's really more my feeling for the strategy, but we're coming from such a low base that incremental growth in a normalized market environment should be pretty easy. If we don't deliver that for you, then we're not doing our job. So I think, John mentioned it was a pretty muted quarter, but fourth quarter pipeline feels pretty good coming into 2024 in a more normalized environment.

不，我不認為這是一個長期的建設。我們不想成為資本市場上世界上最大的。這確實是我對該策略的感受，但我們的基礎如此之低，在正常化的市場環境中實現增量成長應該相當容易。如果我們沒有為您提供這些服務，那麼我們就沒有做好我們的工作。所以我認為，約翰提到這是一個相當平靜的季度，但在更正常化的環境中進入 2024 年，第四季度的管道感覺相當不錯。

I think we have the team now positioned in a way, aligned with the businesses in terms of resources and incentives and degree of focus that I think that the opportunity set should be much better coming into '24, again, subject to market conditions. Now I would describe it as a Version 1.0. When we get to a Version 2.0, we'll come back to you in terms of how we build that out. But a lot of this, as I've said before, we have all the raw material. We just need to leverage all the adjacencies we have internally, have the right incentives, stay focused and then we can drive value through this.

我認為我們的團隊現在的定位在某種程度上與業務在資源、激勵措施和關注程度方面保持一致，我認為進入 24 年的機會集應該會更好，再次取決於市場條件。現在我將其描述為版本 1.0。當我們推出 2.0 版本時，我們將向您介紹如何建立該版本。但正如我之前所說，其中許多我們擁有所有原料。我們只需要利用我們內部擁有的所有鄰接關係，有正確的激勵措施，保持專注，然後我們就可以透過這個來推動價值。

That's great color. Can I ask one more or just should I get back in the queue?

那顏色真棒。我可以再問一個問題還是我應該回到隊列中？

You got to talk to Dan Harris about that. I let you ask, although you asked already before, but they can't give you the opportunity about that, but I'll. That's a kind of guy I'm.

你必須和丹·哈里斯談談這件事。我讓你問，雖然你之前已經問過，但他們不能給你這個機會，但我會的。我就是這樣的人。

It will be a quick one. Just on the fundraising side, obviously, optimistic on 4Q. Are we still in the camp for fundraising in 2023 to exceed that of 2022? Or do you think the timing could be sort of squishy around the December, January time frame where they might bump into '24 a little bit?

這將是一個很快的過程。就籌款而言，顯然對第四季持樂觀態度。我們是否仍有望在 2023 年籌款超過 2022 年？或者你認為時間安排可能會在 12 月、1 月的時間範圍內有點緊張，他們可能會稍微碰上 24 週年？

No. Our expectations will exceed 2022 subject to market conditions and some stuff flipping. And the other thing I'll say is we're trying to give you as much insights, but we're not running the place for November, December, right? So we're running it for the long term. But I understand your focus on the quarter.

不會。根據市場狀況和某些情況的變化，我們的預期將超過 2022 年。我要說的另一件事是，我們試圖為您提供盡可能多的見解，但我們不會在 11 月、12 月運營這個地方，對吧？所以我們要長期運行它。但我理解您對本季的關注。

No, no, that's good, that's good. Great.

不不不，這樣很好，這樣很好。偉大的。

And our last question comes from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自自主研究中心的派崔克‧戴維特。

Harvey, you mentioned the still uncertain environment. So could you maybe better frame how the 4Q realization pipeline looks versus 3Q?

哈維，你提到了仍然不確定的環境。那麼，您能否更好地建立 4Q 實現流程與 3Q 實現流程的對比？

Yes. I mean -- it's John. Look, it's obviously a difficult question to answer in the sense we're in some challenging markets. But look, I would say confidence is low today. Uncertainty is elevated. And as Harvey said, we have a lot of dry powder. I like the fact that we have a lot of dry powder. Some of the better investments we've made at Carlyle have been in markets where uncertainty is elevated like today. So I think we feel good about that. But looking forward, projecting realizations is something that's very difficult for us to do.

是的。我的意思是──這是約翰。看，這顯然是一個很難回答的問題，因為我們正處於一些充滿挑戰的市場。但你看，我想說今天的信心很低。不確定性升高。正如哈維所說，我們有很多乾粉。我喜歡我們有很多乾粉。我們在凱雷做出的一些更好的投資是在像今天這樣不確定性較高的市場。所以我認為我們對此感覺良好。但展望未來，預測實現對我們來說是非常困難的事。

And I'd now like to turn the call back over to Daniel Harris for any closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉回給丹尼爾·哈里斯，請他發表結束語。

Yes. Thanks, everybody. We appreciate your time this morning and, of course, your interest in Carlyle. If you have any further questions or follow-ups, please reach out to Investor Relations. We look forward to talking to you again next quarter.

是的。謝謝大家。我們感謝您今天早上的寶貴時間，當然也感謝您對凱雷的興趣。如果您還有任何其他問題或後續事宜，請聯絡投資者關係部門。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。