Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to The Carlyle Group's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加凱雷集團 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係主管丹尼爾·哈里斯 (Daniel Harris)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Norma. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; Chief Financial Officer, Curt Buser; and incoming Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Strategy, John Redett. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is also available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website.

謝謝你，諾瑪。早上好，歡迎參加凱雷 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席執行官哈維·施瓦茨 (Harvey Schwartz)；首席財務官 Curt Buser；以及即將上任的首席財務官兼企業戰略主管 John Redett。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和一份詳細的收益報告，這些內容也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。該電話會議正在網絡直播，我們的網站上將提供重播。

We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We have provided a reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available. Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them.

我們將在今天的電話會議中提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施不應孤立地考慮或替代根據公認會計原則制定的措施。我們已在合理可用的範圍內，在收益報告中提供了這些措施與 GAAP 的調節表。今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述並不保證未來的業績，不應過分依賴它們。

These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated.

這些陳述基於當前管理層的預期，涉及固有風險和不確定性，包括我們10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中確定的風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與所示結果存在重大差異。

Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time. So turning to our results. For the second quarter, we generated $207 million in fee-related earnings and $389 million in distributable earnings with DE per common share of $0.88. Our accrued carry balance was $3.7 billion as of the end of the quarter, and we declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share. In order to ensure participation by all those on the line today, please limit yourself to one question and then return to the queue for any additional follow-ups. And with that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

凱雷不承擔隨時更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。所以轉向我們的結果。第二季度，我們產生了 2.07 億美元的費用相關收益和 3.89 億美元的可分配收益，每股普通股 DE 為 0.88 美元。截至本季度末，我們的應計利差餘額為 37 億美元，我們宣布派發每股普通股 0.35 美元的季度股息。為了確保今天所有在線人員都能參與，請只回答一個問題，然後返回隊列以進行其他後續解答。接下來，讓我將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Harvey Schwartz。

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm excited to be joined today by John Redett, who you'll hear from later as well as Curt. There are 2 areas I'd like to cover. First, the macro environment; and second, a review of several work streams that will position us to drive long-term growth.

謝謝，丹。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。我很高興今天約翰·雷德特 (John Redett) 加入我的行列，稍後您會聽到他以及科特 (Curt) 的發言。我想討論兩個領域。一是宏觀環境；其次，對幾個工作流程進行審查，這些工作流程將使我們能夠推動長期增長。

First, the macro environment. As I've said previously, we're in one of the most complex periods in recent economic history. The combination of sustained elevated inflation along with central bank rate hikes has led to a corresponding increase in the cost of capital. The peak of the inflationary cycle may have passed, but our base case is that rates stay higher for longer as we shift away from a decade of 0 interest rate policy. It remains early days in understanding the impact of this shift on corporate capital structures and liquidity. Among other factors, this shift in interest rates further contributes to mixed investor appetite and sentiment.

一是宏觀環境。正如我之前所說，我們正處於近代經濟史上最複雜的時期之一。通脹持續走高以及央行加息導致資本成本相應增加。通脹週期的頂峰可能已經過去，但我們的基本情況是，隨著我們擺脫十年的零利率政策，利率將在更長時間內保持較高水平。了解這種轉變對企業資本結構和流動性的影響仍處於早期階段。除其他因素外，利率的轉變進一步加劇了投資者的興趣和情緒。

In part, our economic and market views are informed by the vast data and proprietary insights gathered from our portfolio. The data set includes nearly 300 global companies, 600 real estate investments and loans to over 1,300 issuers. Let's start with inflation. We're starting to see it's more difficult for our portfolio companies to pass through increased cost, reinforcing the view that the inflationary cycle has peaked. Our portfolio company CEOs remain generally cautious in terms of how they're approaching the operating environment, but broadly, our portfolios have seen accelerating activity with over 10% EBITDA growth.

在某種程度上，我們的經濟和市場觀點是基於從我們的投資組合中收集的大量數據和專有見解。該數據集包括近 300 家全球公司、600 項房地產投資以及向 1,300 多家發行人提供的貸款。讓我們從通貨膨脹開始。我們開始發現，我們的投資組合公司越來越難以承受成本增加的影響，這強化了通脹週期已見頂的觀點。我們的投資組合公司首席執行官對於如何應對運營環境總體上仍持謹慎態度，但總體而言，我們的投資組合的活動正在加速，EBITDA 增長超過 10%。

As you'd expect, these economic forces have slowed the pace of investment across the industry. You see this in the amount of capital we are deploying and you see it in lower fundraisings, LPs, slow decision-making on new fund allocations. Having said that, in general, our teams are seeing signs of an increasing pace of early deal flow access across most asset classes. Now I want to update you on 5 key areas that we are focused on as a leadership team. Though these are just a sample of activities around the firm.

正如您所料，這些經濟力量減緩了整個行業的投資步伐。你可以從我們正在部署的資本數額中看到這一點，也可以從較低的籌款量、有限合夥人以及新基金分配的緩慢決策中看到這一點。話雖如此，總的來說，我們的團隊看到了大多數資產類別的早期交易流訪問速度加快的跡象。現在我想向您介紹我們領導團隊重點關注的 5 個關鍵領域的最新情況。儘管這些只是公司活動的一個例子。

We have mobilized teams and launched work streams for each of these. As you'd expect we are approaching these in a very deliberate and methodical manner. And while early, let me give you a line of sight into what we're doing. First, our Insurance Solutions business. Our relationship with Fortitude is profitable, strategic and vital but only one piece in the opportunity set. As insurance companies look to free up capital and shift liabilities to improve their ROE, we're seeing a greater interest on their part to partner with us in a variety of important ways.

我們已經動員了團隊並針對每一項啟動了工作流程。正如您所期望的，我們正在以非常審慎和有條理的方式處理這些問題。現在，讓我先向您介紹一下我們正在做的事情。首先，我們的保險解決方案業務。我們與 Fortitude 的關係是有利可圖的、戰略性的、至關重要的，但只是機會集中的一部分。隨著保險公司尋求釋放資本並轉移負債以提高其淨資產收益率，我們發現他們對以各種重要方式與我們合作表現出更大的興趣。

Second, our capital markets team. They also have a large opportunity to scale their impact. We have in place today all the key ingredients for growth, a well-positioned and active private equity franchise and an experienced capital markets team. As activity rates pick up, we expect that we will further leverage our deal flow and our portfolio companies' need for capital to create a natural tailwind in this business. Third we're also focused on our technology and our AI strategy. This allows us to create operational efficiencies across the firm as well as at our portfolio companies and is an important driver of growth and scale over the long term.

第二，我們的資本市場團隊。他們還有很大的機會擴大影響力。今天，我們已經具備了增長的所有關鍵要素、定位良好且活躍的私募股權特許經營權以及經驗豐富的資本市場團隊。隨著活動率上升，我們預計將進一步利用我們的交易流和投資組合公司對資本的需求，為該業務創造自然的推動力。第三，我們還專注於我們的技術和人工智能戰略。這使我們能夠提高整個公司以及我們的投資組合公司的運營效率，並且是長期增長和規模的重要驅動力。

We recently appointed the Lúcia Soares as our new Chief Information Officer and Head of Technology Transformation. She will work closely with the entire leadership team to drive technology transformation strategy and operations. Now fourth, as we said before, we see long-term opportunity around private wealth. We've recently hired a new Head of Private Wealth Strategy. While we only have 3 products in the market covering 5 billion of assets today, we view this as an important channel for growth.

我們最近任命 Lícia Soares 為新任首席信息官兼技術轉型主管。她將與整個領導團隊密切合作，推動技術轉型戰略和運營。第四，正如我們之前所說，我們看到了圍繞私人財富的長期機會。我們最近聘請了一位新的私人財富戰略主管。雖然目前我們市場上只有 3 個產品，覆蓋 50 億資產，但我們認為這是一個重要的增長渠道。

We'll be working with our distribution partners to bring product innovation globally to the Wealth Channel. Most importantly, the Carlyle brand is a huge differentiator here. And fifth, the last work stream I'll mention is around expense management and improving FRE margin. This means investing in our platform wisely to drive top line growth, as well as closely monitoring the overall level and composition of expense as well as the capital required to run the firm.

我們將與我們的分銷合作夥伴合作，將全球的產品創新引入財富頻道。最重要的是，凱雷品牌在這裡是一個巨大的差異化因素。第五，我要提到的最後一個工作流程是圍繞費用管理和提高 FRE 利潤率。這意味著明智地投資我們的平台以推動收入增長，並密切監控費用的總體水平和構成以及運營公司所需的資本。

This is a critical strategic effort. We will continue to move with a disciplined sense of urgency around each one of these, and we'll continue to update you as these progress. To close, as I said, we're still operating within a somewhat challenging market backdrop. It's important to state that we will be patient when we need to be, while at the same time, capitalizing on opportunities to deploy capital where we see attractive risk reward. As a leadership team, we are intensely focused on delivering performance excellence for our investors and driving long-term shareholder value. We are taking action to mobilize teams around priority areas to drive disciplined growth and I'm really enthusiastic for Carlyle's future.

這是一項關鍵的戰略努力。我們將繼續以嚴格的緊迫感圍繞其中每一項開展工作，並且隨著這些進展，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。最後，正如我所說，我們仍然在充滿挑戰的市場背景下運營。需要指出的是，我們將在需要時保持耐心，同時利用機會在我們看到有吸引力的風險回報的地方部署資本。作為一個領導團隊，我們高度重視為投資者提供卓越的業績並推動長期股東價值。我們正在採取行動，動員團隊圍繞優先領域推動有序增長，我對凱雷的未來充滿熱情。

Now before I hand it to John, I'd also like to take a moment to thank Curt for his tremendous contributions to Carlyle over the last nearly 20 years. I personally am thankful for Curt's counsel and support as I transitioned into Carlyle over the past 6 months, and I've really enjoyed getting it on. I know you'll all join me in wishing him the best in his upcoming retirement. And now, John, over to you.

現在，在將其交給約翰之前，我還想花一點時間感謝柯特在過去近 20 年中為凱雷做出的巨大貢獻。我個人非常感謝過去 6 個月裡我轉入凱雷期間 Curt 的建議和支持，我真的很享受這樣的過程。我知道你們都會和我一起祝愿他在​​即將到來的退休生活中一切順利。現在，約翰，交給你了。

Thanks, Harvey. Good morning, everyone. I also want to thank Curt for his 20 years of leadership at Carlyle and for the guidance he continues to provide me as I transition into the CFO role. I look forward to working more closely with many of you in the coming periods. As Harvey highlighted, we delivered solid results this quarter in a tough environment, driven by a diversified investment platform and the focus of our global investment teams. We produced $389 million in distributable earnings for the second quarter or $0.88 in DE per share. Year-to-date, we have generated $660 million of DE or $1.51 in DE per share.

謝謝，哈維。大家，早安。我還要感謝 Curt 在凱雷 20 年的領導，以及在我過渡到首席財務官職位時他繼續為我提供的指導。我期待著在接下來的時期與你們中的許多人進行更密切的合作。正如哈維強調的那樣，在多元化投資平台和全球投資團隊的關注的推動下，我們本季度在艱難的環境中取得了穩健的業績。我們第二季度的可分配收益為 3.89 億美元，即每股 DE 0.88 美元。今年迄今為止，我們已產生 6.6 億美元的 DE 或每股 1.51 美元的 DE。

We reached a $60 million of shares in the second quarter and have repurchased $160 million in the first half of the year. Today, I'm going to focus my remarks on 3 main areas: fee-related earnings in the near-term outlook, accrued carry and fundraising. First, fee-related earnings. Increased to $207 million in the quarter, up from $193 million in Q1 2023. Relative to the second quarter last year, FRE declined 12% as modest growth in revenue was offset by continued investment into our people and teams. Year-to-date, FRE of $401 million was down 5% compared to the same period last year. Second quarter management fees of $515 million increased sequentially after having declined for a few quarters with increases in each of our segments.

第二季度我們的股票達到了 6000 萬美元，上半年回購了 1.6 億美元。今天，我將重點討論三個主要領域：近期前景中與費用相關的收益、應計利差和籌款。首先，與費用相關的收入。本季度增加至 2.07 億美元，高於 2023 年第一季度的 1.93 億美元。與去年第二季度相比，FRE 下降了 12%，因為對員工和團隊的持續投資抵消了收入的溫和增長。年初至今，FRE 為 4.01 億美元，比去年同期下降 5%。第二季度管理費用為 5.15 億美元，在連續幾個季度下降後，隨著我們每個部門的增長，管理費用環比增加。

Over the next few quarters, new fund launches and fee activations should support continued management fee growth. Our second quarter results benefited from $73 million in fee-related performance revenue. Looking ahead, we are not expecting to generate material fee-related performance revenue in global private equity in the second half of 2023, though global credit fee-related performance revenue should remain stable. Transaction and advisory fees were $18 million in the quarter, down significantly from a year ago, given muted capital markets activity, which has pressured both FRE and the margins.

在接下來的幾個季度，新基金的推出和費用激活應會支持管理費的持續增長。我們第二季度的業績得益於 7300 萬美元的與費用相關的績效收入。展望未來，我們預計 2023 年下半年全球私募股權不會產生實質性的費用相關業績收入，但全球信貸費用相關業績收入應保持穩定。鑑於資本市場活動低迷，該季度的交易和諮詢費用為 1,800 萬美元，較去年同期大幅下降，這給 FRE 和利潤率帶來了壓力。

And as you heard from Harvey, driving an increasing level of transaction revenue from our investment platforms is a major focus area for the firm. Compensation expense was $289 million in the second quarter, an 11% increase year-over-year. A majority of the increase this quarter was a function of higher fee-related performance revenue as we generally accrue compensation at 45% of associated revenue. Excluding this impact, compensation expense increased only 5% year-over-year. G&A expense of $102 million reflects a more normalized set of firm-wide activities relative to lower levels we saw during the pandemic.

正如您從哈維那裡聽到的那樣，推動我們投資平台的交易收入水平不斷提高是公司的主要關注領域。第二季度薪酬支出為2.89億美元，同比增長11%。本季度的增長主要是由於與費用相關的績效收入增加，因為我們通常按相關收入的 45% 計提薪酬。剔除這一影響，補償費用同比僅增長 5%。 1.02 億美元的一般管理費用反映了相對於我們在大流行期間看到的較低水平而言，公司範圍內的活動更加正常化。

This quarter also included external fundraising costs largely captured in global investment solutions, which supported fundraising momentum. G&A expense may tick up in the back half of the year as we typically have increased operating costs tied to our LP conferences. With regards to our FRE outlook, second half 2023 FRE is likely to be similar in the aggregate to the first half of 2023 with a relatively stronger fourth quarter. We remain focused on generating sustainable top line revenue growth as well as diversifying and growing FRE.

本季度還包括主要在全球投資解決方案中體現的外部籌款成本，這支持了籌款勢頭。下半年的一般管理費用可能會增加，因為我們通常會增加與有限合夥人會議相關的運營成本。就我們的 FRE 前景而言，2023 年下半年 FRE 總體上可能與 2023 年上半年相似，第四季度相對強勁。我們仍然專注於實現可持續的營收增長以及 FRE 的多元化和增長。

Moving on, I'd like to discuss our net accrued carry. Our global carry fund portfolio appreciated 2% in the quarter with relative strength in infrastructure and natural resources, owing to an uptick in announced transactions. We had more muted appreciation in private equity and real estate. Our net accrued carry balance of $3.7 billion declined from $4 billion last quarter. Most of this decline was driven by $175 million in net realizations with the balance due to a reduction in accrued carry in global private equity. Even with this decline, the net accrual remains at a robust $10 per share, which is a substantial source of future shareholder value.

接下來，我想討論一下我們的淨應計收益。由於已公佈交易的增加，我們的全球套利基金投資組合在本季度升值了 2%，基礎設施和自然資源相對強勁。私募股權和房地產的升值更為溫和。我們的淨應計利差餘額為 37 億美元，較上季度的 40 億美元有所下降。這一下降的主要原因是 1.75 億美元的淨變現，其餘部分是由於全球私募股權應計利差的減少所致。即使出現這種下降，應計淨收益仍保持在每股 10 美元的強勁水平，這是未來股東價值的重要來源。

Let me finish up with an update on fundraising. Fund investors continue to face challenging decisions and make commitments more slowly than in previous years. Despite this slowdown, we still expect to raise a larger amount of capital in 2023 than we did in 2022. Through the first half of 2023, we raised $14 billion of new capital. Approximately halfway to last year's fundraising total. We have momentum in several important strategies that should see inflows in the second half of 2023, likely weighted towards the fourth quarter. In Global Investment Solutions, we are off to a good start for our latest vintage secondary and co-investment strategies, which should both continue into the second half of the year and into 2024.

最後讓我介紹一下籌款的最新情況。基金投資者繼續面臨具有挑戰性的決策，做出承諾的速度比前幾年要慢。儘管增速放緩，我們仍預計 2023 年籌集的資金量將高於 2022 年。截至 2023 年上半年，我們籌集了 140 億美元的新資本。大約是去年籌款總額的一半。我們在幾項重要戰略上有動力，這些戰略應該會在 2023 年下半年看到資金流入，可能會在第四季度有所增加。在全球投資解決方案中，我們為最新的經典二級投資和聯合投資策略開了一個良好的開端，這些策略應該會持續到今年下半年和 2024 年。

This new capital will turn on management fees later this year. In Global Credit, we expect to grow off a slower start to 2023. We've priced 2 CLOs in the second quarter after none in the first quarter. Our credit opportunities fund should continue to attract more capital and a number of strategies and SMAs are positioned to generate positive flows, with the fourth quarter likely to be relatively stronger than the third quarter.

這筆新資本將於今年晚些時候用於管理費。在全球信貸方面，我們預計到 2023 年，增長將放緩。我們在第二季度對 2 份 CLO 進行了定價，而第一季度沒有定價。我們的信貸機會基金應該會繼續吸引更多資本，並且許多策略和SMA將產生積極的資金流動，第四季度可能會比第三季度相對強勁。

In Global Private equity, we expect to raise capital in the second half of the year in several buyout funds and various real asset strategies. Wrapping up, let me reiterate my excitement to be in this new role working alongside Harvey and the entire Carlyle team to drive shareholder value. We are excited about the opportunities for continued growth and improved operational performance. With that, let me turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

在全球私募股權領域，我們預計下半年將通過多個收購基金和各種實物資產策略籌集資金。最後，讓我重申，我很高興能擔任這個新角色，與 Harvey 和整個凱雷團隊一起推動股東價值。我們對持續增長和改善運營績效的機會感到興奮。接下來，讓我將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) First question will come from the line of Alexander Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自高盛的亞歷山大·布洛斯坦（Alexander Blostein）。

Harvey, maybe we can zone in on some of the key priorities that you mentioned in your prepared remarks really starting, I guess, from the last one you highlighted around the expense structure and FRE margins. Could you just hone in a little bit more in terms of what that means. You obviously came into the business with a fresh pair of eyes. So curious how that could impact compensation mix and ultimately the FRE margins longer term for this firm?

哈維，也許我們可以集中討論您在準備好的發言中提到的一些關鍵優先事項，我想，從您上次強調的費用結構和 FRE 利潤率開始。您能否再進一步了解一下這意味著什麼？顯然，您以全新的眼光進入了這個行業。很好奇這會如何影響該公司的薪酬組合以及最終的長期 FRE 利潤率？

When you said it would impact which mix? Thanks for the question, Alex. Good to hear your voice. So this is a critical work stream. We kind of gave you a flavor of the 5. There are more than those, obviously. But as I settled into the seat, Curt and I kicked off a work stream that was really focused on FRE margin and how we want to think about that. And obviously, he's in the process of handing that baton over to John. We can talk about both the top line growth, but you narrowed in more on the compensation piece and the expense piece.

當你說這會影響哪種組合時？謝謝你的提問，亞歷克斯。很高興聽到你的聲音。所以這是一個關鍵的工作流程。我們為您提供了 5 種風味。顯然，還有更多。但當我坐下來時，科特和我啟動了一個工作流程，該工作流程真正關注的是 FRE 利潤率以及我們想要如何思考這個問題。顯然，他正在將接力棒交給約翰。我們可以談論營收增長，但您更多地縮小了薪酬部分和費用部分的範圍。

So we're basically doing a line-by-line review going through the business and making sure we're super disciplined about expense. Now as it relates to compensation, that's obviously a critical component of it. And the way we're approaching that is as you heard me say before, very first principle based.

因此，我們基本上是在對業務進行逐行審查，並確保我們對費用非常嚴格。既然涉及到薪酬，這顯然是其中的一個關鍵組成部分。正如您之前聽到我所說的，我們實現這一目標的方式是基於首要原則的。

And what I mean by that is we're going to start with the things that are most critical around compensation. And that, as you know, is making sure that we have really, really as perfect as we can alignment with our constituencies, our LPs, our employees and our shareholders. And at this stage, I think we're making good progress on the work stream, I think there's a real opportunity here. And importantly, as it relates to our team, we want to make sure that they're aligned with the LPs that we retain and attract the best people, and we really want to reward people for performance. But as a first principle, I would just say we're taking a white sheet of paper to this, and we're being very thoughtful about it.

我的意思是，我們將從薪酬方面最關鍵的事情開始。正如您所知，這就是確保我們與我們的選民、有限合夥人、員工和股東保持真正、真正完美的一致。在這個階段，我認為我們在工作流程上取得了良好的進展，我認為這裡有一個真正的機會。重要的是，因為這與我們的團隊有關，我們希望確保他們與我們保留的有限合夥人保持一致並吸引最優秀的人才，並且我們確實希望獎勵員工的表現。但作為首要原則，我只想說我們對此採取了一張白紙，並且我們對此非常深思熟慮。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自肯·沃辛頓與摩根大通的對話。

John, maybe just starting high level, can you give us some background on your time at Carlyle and your decision to transition to the CFO role? And then maybe following up on Alex's question, sort of FRE margins dipped in the quarter. Can you talk us through the outlook for margins in this context of challenging market backdrop, number of fund launches but increased investment and basically, how do you see the direction of fee margins evolving as we go into the back half of the year?

約翰，也許你剛剛開始高層管理，你能給我們介紹一下你在凱雷的工作經歷以及你決定轉型為首席財務官的背景嗎？然後也許是繼 Alex 的問題之後，FRE 的利潤率在本季度有所下降。在充滿挑戰的市場背景、基金發行數量增加但投資增加的背景下，您能否向我們介紹一下利潤率的前景？基本上，您如何看待下半年費用利潤率的發展​​方向？

Thank you, Ken, and I look forward to meeting you at some point in the near future. Just quickly on the first part of your question and on my background, I've spent my entire career in financial services. The last 16 years in private equity at Carlyle. While at Carlyle, I focused on investing in financial services globally. A large component of that job, Ken, was the value creation at the portfolio company level. And I would just add, the financial services team has a great track record at Carlyle.

謝謝你，肯，我期待著在不久的將來的某個時候見到你。請快速回答您問題的第一部分以及我的背景，我的整個職業生涯都在金融服務領域度過。過去 16 年在凱雷從事私募股權工作。在凱雷期間，我專注於投資全球金融服務。肯，這項工作的一個重要組成部分是在投資組合公司層面創造價值。我想補充一點，凱雷的金融服務團隊擁有出色的業績記錄。

And when the CFO opportunity was presented to me, honestly, it was the easiest carrier decision I've ever made. It was an easy yes. I'm super excited to be in this role starting October 1. And I really look forward to working with Harvey and the team to further drive shareholder value. In terms of your -- second part of your question, the FRE margin, I would just say, look, we know we can do better. And as Harvey mentioned, we're very focused on expenses and margin. And more importantly, we're very focused on delivering disciplined revenue growth. And I would just say, as we make progress on these work streams, we'll keep you updated in the coming periods.

老實說，當首席財務官的機會出現在我面前時，這是我做過的最簡單的運營商決定。這是一個簡單的“是”。我非常高興能夠從 10 月 1 日開始擔任這一職務。我非常期待與 Harvey 和團隊合作，進一步提升股東價值。就您問題的第二部分而言，FRE 利潤率，我只想說，看，我們知道我們可以做得更好。正如哈維提到的，我們非常關注費用和利潤。更重要的是，我們非常注重實現有紀律的收入增長。我只想說，隨著我們在這些工作流程上取得進展，我們將在未來一段時間內向您通報最新情況。

Our next question comes from Brian McKenna with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券的布萊恩·麥肯納 (Brian McKenna)。

So Harvey, you've been in your seat a couple of quarters now I know you continue to analyze the business. And I'm assuming it might take some more time for you to frame out the longer-term trajectory of the firm, but do you have any early expectations on what you think the underlying growth at Carlyle could look like over time based on everything you've seen thus far? And then just based on some of the growth initiatives that are underway.

哈維，你已經就任幾個季度了，現在我知道你還在繼續分析業務。我假設你可能需要更多的時間來製定公司的長期發展軌跡，但是根據你所了解的一切，你對凱雷的潛在增長隨著時間的推移可能會是什麼樣子有任何早期預期嗎？到目前為止見過嗎？然後只是基於一些正在進行的增長計劃。

Yes, great question. So I think I'm coming up on 6 months. And I think I've seen almost 150 LPs, I traveled 40 days. I've met with teams internally and I could not feel better sitting here today than I ever would have imagined about the future of Carlyle and the growth opportunity. And I say that, feeling quite informed on a number of levels, the power of the brands and the dialogue with LPs directly. Obviously, part of my view on this and how I feel is informed by what I think is the trajectory for the industry, which I think is fantastic.

是的，很好的問題。所以我想我還有六個月的時間。我想我已經看過近 150 張 LP，我旅行了 40 天。我在內部與團隊進行了會面，今天坐在這裡，我對凱雷的未來和增長機會的想像比以往任何時候都感覺更好。我這麼說，是因為我對很多層面、品牌的力量以及與有限合夥人的直接對話都非常了解。顯然，我對此的部分看法以及我的感受是由我認為的行業發展軌跡決定的，我認為這非常棒。

It may not be fantastic quarter-to-quarter, but I think the long-term trajectory of the industry is quite good. And when I think -- when I tried to give you some flavor of how we're now turning our focus to these work streams. And the work streams allow us to do a number of things. They obviously allow us to prioritize growth, whether it's in insurance, it's in capital markets, some credit various parts of our business is, but also it allows us to focus on margin and how we want to think about the composition of compensation and things I've already talked about.

每個季度的情況可能並不理想，但我認為該行業的長期軌跡相當不錯。當我想時——當我試圖向您介紹我們現在如何將重點轉向這些工作流程時。工作流允許我們做很多事情。顯然，它們使我們能夠優先考慮增長，無論是在保險方面，在資本市場方面，還是我們業務的各個部分的一些信用方面，而且它還使我們能夠專注於利潤率以及我們如何考慮薪酬的構成以及我想要做的事情。已經談過了。

Another thing that it serves is it really brings the team together. And I feel great about the way the team is coming together in terms of the focus, and this is engagement across including, obviously, John, Curt and myself and the team that you know better also, this includes some of the best investors in the world, which I've brought together on various work streams. And so I feel great about the momentum. This is not going to be an immediate third, fourth quarter thing. But if you ask me about the long-term trajectory, I felt really excited when I got here in February, and I feel better now.

它的另一件事是它確實使團隊團結在一起。我對團隊在焦點方面聚集在一起的方式感到非常高興，這顯然包括約翰、柯特和我自己以及你更了解的團隊，其中包括一些最好的投資者世界，我在不同的工作流程中將其匯集在一起​​。所以我對這種勢頭感覺很好。這不會是第三、第四季度的事情。但如果你問我長期的發展軌跡，我二月份來到這裡時感到非常興奮，現在感覺好多了。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的克里斯·科托夫斯基（Chris Kotowski）。

Chris, we can't hear you.

克里斯，我們聽不到你的聲音。

Chris, your line may be muted. Question comes from the line of Dan Butch with Barclays.

克里斯，你的線路可能被靜音。問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·布奇。

I wanted to ask about your fundraising expectations, particularly in the private equity side. I know in your prepared remarks, you indicated that the pace of investment is slowing. The fundraising is slowing in general. But as broader markets are kind of recovering, maybe the denominator effect issues are sort of getting resolved a little bit. Any -- and as you're sort of seeing some kind of green shoots for overall transacting activity, any kind of increased optimism or updated expectations for sort of the next vintage of private equity funds taking Asia buyout Europe, Japan, the ones that are kind of expected to come later this year and into '24?

我想問一下您的融資預期，特別是在私募股權方面。我知道您在準備好的講話中表示，投資步伐正在放緩。籌款活動總體放緩。但隨著更廣泛的市場正在復蘇，也許分母效應問題得到了一些解決。任何——當你看到整體交易活動出現某種萌芽時，任何一種樂觀情緒的增加或對下一個私募股權基金收購亞洲、歐洲、日本等國家的預期的更新。預計會在今年晚些時候進入'24？

So broadly speaking on fundraising, as we said, we feel this year is going to be better than last year. That's broadly across the diversified platform, right? So solutions, there's a lot of momentum there's a lot of momentum in credit. There's a lot of momentum across the insurance complex. So we feel good about that. There's a lot of momentum in real estate. Private equity, still some headwinds globally when you go around the world, but we feel optimistic about certain aspects of the fundraising that are in the market right now. I can't obviously get into specifics because they're in the market right now.

正如我們所說，從廣義上講，我們認為今年的籌款情況會比去年更好。這廣泛存在於多元化平台中，對吧？所以解決方案，信貸有很大的動力。整個保險業發展勢頭強勁。所以我們對此感覺良好。房地產業勢頭強勁。私募股權在全球範圍內仍然存在一些阻力，但我們對目前市場上融資的某些方面感到樂觀。我顯然無法透露具體細節，因為它們現在就在市場上。

But I would say our comments that you heard in the prepared remarks, generally how we feel about it for the balance of the year, but a lot of momentum in those other areas.

但我想說的是您在準備好的發言中聽到的我們的評論，總體上我們對今年剩餘時間的感受，但在其他領域也有很大的動力。

Next question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So you gave a bunch of comments that talk second half versus first half. And it was very clear that weighted towards fourth quarter given that we're in the third quarter, and it's kind of slow right now. So I wonder if you can help dimensionalize how much weighted fourth quarter versus third quarter on some of those items. And then when thinking about growth. You talked optimistic about credit insurance, but I was wondering if we could get a little bit more the CLOs are in the process of recovering, knock wood, but what else is going to drive growth because there is the opposite of a private equity that private credit backdrop feels pretty good.

所以你給出了一堆談論下半場和上半場的評論。很明顯，考慮到我們正處於第三季度，而且現在的增長速度有點慢，所以加權到第四季度是很明顯的。因此，我想知道您是否可以幫助確定其中一些項目的第四季度與第三季度的加權比例。然後當考慮增長時。你談到了對信用保險的樂觀態度，但我想知道我們是否可以得到更多一點 CLO 正在復甦的過程中，敲木頭，但還有什麼能夠推動增長，因為私募股權與私募股權相反信用背景感覺還不錯。

So maybe if you can talk a little bit more on insurance and direct lending.

也許您可以多談談保險和直接貸款。

Sure. So I mentioned in the work streams we mobilized an effort around insurance. Obviously, we have Fortitude, it's a hugely valuable asset and our ownership there. And so we mobilize work streams around that in some respects in exactly the way you talked about, Glenn, because the adjacencies between insurance origination where the pipeline is very, very good. For further transactions and the desire to work with Fortitude is a natural creator of flow into our credit business. Again, this is not a third or a fourth quarter event.

當然。因此，我在工作流程中提到，我們動員了圍繞保險的努力。顯然，我們擁有 Fortitude，它是一項非常寶貴的資產，也是我們的所有權。因此，在某些方面，我們以格倫您所說的方式圍繞這一點調動工作流程，因為保險渠道之間的毗鄰性非常非常好。對於進一步的交易以及與 Fortitude 合作的願望是我們信貸業務的自然創造者。再次強調，這不是第三季度或第四季度的事件。

This is longer term, I can tell you about the momentum we see and the pipeline that we see. Also, as it relates to our credit franchise, the performance has been good. A little slower than we expected, but it feels good in terms of the pipeline of fundraising and the team feels confident for the back half of the year. So I feel good about the trajectory of all those pieces. And of course, there's adjacencies in there with capital markets in terms of how we distribute and how we bring all that together.

這是長期的，我可以告訴你我們看到的勢頭和我們看到的管道。此外，由於與我們的信貸特許經營有關，業績一直很好。比我們預期的要慢一些，但從籌款渠道來看，感覺不錯，團隊對下半年充滿信心。所以我對所有這些作品的發展軌跡感覺很好。當然，在我們如何分配以及如何將所有這些整合在一起方面，與資本市場存在著相似之處。

That is really the purpose of bringing these work streams together. It's just about mobilizing the teams around these opportunities. So I would say we feel good about that. I can't pin it down to third quarter, fourth quarter, and we don't really run the company that way, Glenn, as you know. It's certainly not the way I think about things. But I feel very, very confident about the trajectory and our focus on FRE margin and the things we talked about.

這正是將這些工作流整合在一起的真正目的。這只是圍繞這些機會動員團隊。所以我想說我們對此感覺良好。我無法將其確定為第三季度、第四季度，而且我們並沒有真正以這種方式運營公司，格倫，正如你所知。這當然不是我思考事情的方式。但我對發展軌跡、我們對 FRE 利潤率的關注以及我們談論的事情感到非常非常有信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·比德爾 (Brian Bedell)。

Maybe just back on the FRE margin and trajectory. And really, next -- let's think about next year, not the second half. But if we could put aside insurance solutions, you've talked, Harvey, about building up the capital markets effort. It sounds like you have the raw ingredients there to do that right now. So I'm assuming that, that can be leveraged quite well. But as we move into next year, do you view that FRE margin expansion is more of an element of revenue growth and scaling the business or more coming from expense initiatives?

也許只是回到 FRE 的利潤和軌跡。事實上，接下來——讓我們考慮明年，而不是下半年。但如果我們可以把保險解決方案放在一邊，哈維，你已經談到了建立資本市場的努力。聽起來你現在就有做到這一點的原材料。所以我假設，這可以得到很好的利用。但隨著我們進入明年，您認為 FRE 利潤率擴張更多是收入增長和業務擴展的一個因素，還是更多來自費用計劃？

And you mentioned compensation is, would that be including any kind of change in structure and compensation and such as moving comp, more comp out of FRE and into performance-based revenue.

您提到的薪酬是，這是否包括結構和薪酬方面的任何形式的變化，例如將薪酬從 FRE 中轉移出來，並納入基於績效的收入中。

Thanks. Let me unpack that a little bit. So I just want to make sure I hit your points. So on FRE margin, that is, as I said, that's a critical work stream for us. And what does that mean? That means driving growth for the top line, but it also means being exceptionally disciplined in terms of expenses and how we're thinking about capital deployment. And as I said, we started this process that occurred now, we're transitioning that over to John.

謝謝。讓我稍微解開一下。所以我只是想確保我符合你的觀點。因此，就 FRE 而言，正如我所說，這對我們來說是一個關鍵的工作流程。這意味著什麼？這意味著推動營收增長，但也意味著在支出以及我們如何考慮資本部署方面要嚴格遵守紀律。正如我所說，我們開始了現在發生的這個過程，我們正在將其移交給約翰。

I feel very good about the momentum of that given how long I've been here and how focused the team is. And so the trajectory there would be good. And with respect to compensation, again, we want to make sure we get this perfectly right for our teams and the alignment for our constituencies but yes, compensation and the composition of compensation and making sure we reward our best people, and again, at the same time, aligning with our constituencies and our LPs. Yes, a 100% that's on the table. Too early to give you details on that. As soon as we have them, we'll share them.

考慮到我在這里工作了很長時間以及團隊的專注程度，我對這種勢頭感覺非常好。所以那裡的軌跡會很好。關於薪酬，我們再次希望確保我們的團隊完全正確，並與我們的選區保持一致，但是，是的，薪酬和薪酬的構成，並確保我們獎勵我們最優秀的人才，並且再次，在同時，與我們的選區和有限合夥人保持一致。是的，100% 都擺在桌面上。向您提供詳細信息還為時過早。一旦我們有了它們，我們就會分享它們。

But that's a process, and we're going to be very methodical. But I can tell you as it relates to FRE margin, both growth and also expense management, we're laser-focused. And you should hear it no differently. Now you had a question inside there where you talked about capital markets, which I just want to drop into for a second. And I don't want to minimize it, it's not rocket science, okay? We're not building space channels over here for capital markets. Basically, all we're doing is mobilizing the team to work in the adjacencies a little bit differently. We're not going to build up a big team. We don't want to be competing with the JPMorgans of the world, but we do think there's a real valuable opportunity set here where we can provide incremental revenues without any significant need to scale.

但這是一個過程，我們將非常有條理。但我可以告訴你，因為它與 FRE 利潤率、增長和費用管理有關，我們非常專注。你聽到的應該沒有什麼不同。現在你在裡面提出了一個關於資本市場的問題，我只想談一談。我不想最小化它，這不是火箭科學，好嗎？我們不是在這里為資本市場建立空間通道。基本上，我們所做的就是動員團隊以稍微不同的方式在鄰近地區開展工作。我們不會建立一個大團隊。我們不想與世界上的摩根大通競爭，但我們確實認為這裡有一個真正有價值的機會，我們可以在不需要任何大規模擴張的情況下提供增量收入。

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Cyprus with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾·塞浦路斯 (Michael Cyprus) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的對話。

If we look out the next couple of years, it seems like you guys are set to generate substantial cash flow across the business. Just curious how you're thinking about deploying that cash generation, what portion might be return to shareholders versus what portion might you retain for organic growth versus inorganic? And how important or meaningful could inorganic opportunities be at this point?

如果我們展望未來幾年，你們似乎將在整個業務中產生大量現金流。只是好奇您如何考慮部署現金生成，哪些部分可能會返還給股東，哪些部分可能會保留用於有機增長，而不是無機增長？此時，無機機會有多重要或有意義？

So for me, it's a math question. I don't want to oversimplify it. I think it's a question of really just thinking through the strategic opportunities that may be presented to us versus returning the capital, as we talked about before. Right now, I think the opportunities to return capital to shareholders may be more attractive, but that's a moment in time. I think that when you look at the position of the firm and the footings of the firm in terms of what we have, we have an insurance investment, which is quite critical to the firm.

所以對我來說，這是一個數學問題。我不想把它過於簡單化。我認為這實際上只是思考可能向我們提供的戰略機會與返還資本的問題，正如我們之前討論的那樣。目前，我認為向股東返還資本的機會可能更有吸引力，但那隻是一個時機。我認為，當你從我們所擁有的情況來看公司的地位和基礎時，我們有保險投資，這對公司來說非常關鍵。

So we don't need to go out and acquire one. We have a credit business, which is continuing to build organically. We have the solutions business. So all the component pieces are here. I wouldn't rule out certainly strategic partnerships where we think they could accelerate growth, but they'd have to be a really good fit. And again, I know this is always the case. Everybody says it, the math just has to make sense. But we'll make those choices at the margin when presented. But the brand is very powerful. And if there's opportunities for us to scale in ways that are inorganic, we'll certainly consider them. But right now, I would say that's not front and center, but I wouldn't rule it out over the long term.

所以我們不需要出去購買一個。我們的信貸業務正在持續有機地發展。我們有解決方案業務。所以所有的組成部分都在這裡。我不會排除我們認為可以加速增長的戰略合作夥伴關係，但它們必須非常合適。再說一次，我知道情況總是如此。每個人都這麼說，數學必須有意義。但當出現時，我們會在邊緣做出這些選擇。但這個品牌的實力非常強大。如果我們有機會以無機方式進行擴展，我們肯定會考慮它們。但現在，我想說這不是最重要的，但從長遠來看我不會排除這種可能性。

Our next question comes from the line of Rufus Hone with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Rufus Hone。

Maybe coming back to the private wealth opportunity, and I'm curious to get your thoughts around what the Carlyle product set in the wealth channel might look like 2 or 3 years from now and not just in the U.S. but internationally as well.

也許回到私人財富機會，我很想知道您對凱雷產品在財富渠道中的設置在兩三年後會是什麼樣子的想法，不僅在美國，而且在國際上也是如此。

Yes. So this is where we feel like the brand is a very, very powerful differentiator. The name recognition, the presence of the founders and what they represent for the firm and David Rubenstein and sort of the -- just the -- it's iconic, and everybody in the world knows it. Again, we're at the beginning of this journey. I actually would say, my opinion, the industry is at the beginning of this journey.

是的。所以我們覺得這個品牌是一個非常非常強大的差異化因素。知名度、創始人的存在以及他們對公司和大衛·魯賓斯坦的代表，以及某種——只是——它是標誌性的，世界上每個人都知道這一點。再說一遍，我們正處於這一旅程的開始。事實上，我認為，這個行業正處於這一旅程的開始。

I think product development will continue to improve. I think there'll be a real innovation in the product over the next couple of years. And I think as at the team at Carlyle, we're going to be very thoughtful about this. We only have 3 products in the market right now. But this is a place where we want to make sure we have our market share, and so we're going to be focused on it. But it's early in the journey.

我認為產品開發將會繼續改進。我認為未來幾年該產品將會出現真正的創新。我認為，作為凱雷團隊，我們將會對此進行深思熟慮。目前我們市場上只有 3 種產品。但這是我們想要確保擁有市場份額的地方，因此我們將重點關注它。但現在還處於旅程的早期階段。

Our next question comes from Patrick Davitt from Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

(inaudible) were full of chunky realizations that helped the 2Q performance fee but how are you thinking about realizations in the second half now relative to your tone on the first quarter call? And is there a tangible pipeline you can speak to or tangible pipeline building you can speak to now?

（聽不清）充滿了有助於第二季度績效費用的大量實現，但相對於您在第一季度電話會議上的語氣，您現在如何看待下半年的實現？現在是否有您可以談論的有形管道或有形管道建設？

We wouldn't want to have this call without Curt ever opening his mouth. So Curt looks like he wants to actually speak, Patrick, so we're going to let Curt take a question. I think that the poor guy is just dying to have one question on this call.

我們不想在柯特不開口的情況下接到這個電話。帕特里克，科特看起來真的想說話，所以我們讓科特回答一個問題。我認為這個可憐的傢伙只是非常想在這次電話會議中提出一個問題。

Appreciate the question. And before I answer, let me just say thank you. Thank you really to all of our shareholders. I want to say thank you to our founders. And I want to say thank you to really all the analysts that follow us. It's been great working with you over this time. It's really been an honor and privilege for me to serve in this role. And I have total confidence in Harvey and John's leadership, taking it forward. And look, we've got a great team at Carlyle, big bench, lots of tenure on the team.

感謝這個問題。在我回答之前，請允許我說聲謝謝。衷心感謝我們所有的股東。我想對我們的創始人表示感謝。我想對所有關注我們的分析師表示感謝。這段時間和你一起工作真是太好了。擔任這個職務對我來說真的是一種榮幸。我對哈維和約翰的領導能力充滿信心，並推動這一事業向前發展。看，我們在凱雷擁有一支優秀的團隊，有很多板凳，團隊中有很多任期。

It's just really been a great honor. In terms of realizations, Look, we got $3.7 billion of net accrued carry, roughly $10 a share, just as John said, we delivered $1.5 billion of net carry realizations in 2021. In 2022, it was roughly $1 billion. First half this year, $245 million. Look, it's really hard, as I've said in the past, I call it, to the nickel on which deal is going to close when and how all that plays out. But I would kind of think second half of the year in pole is going to look more or less like the first half of the year on carry. But it's -- look, I'd say gas and things can slide and until activity really picks up again, it's a hard thing to really nail down. But again, $3.7 billion that's a lot of carry, and we're very excited about that to be able to turn that into cash.

這真的是一種莫大的榮幸。在變現方面，看，我們獲得了37 億美元的應計淨利差，大約每股10 美元，正如約翰所說，我們在2021 年實現了15 億美元的淨利差變現。 2022 年，大約是10 億美元。今年上半年，2.45億美元。聽著，正如我過去所說的那樣，這真的很難，我稱之為，到底哪一筆交易將在何時以及如何進行。但我覺得下半年的杆位賽或多或少會像上半年的比賽一樣。但這是——看，我想說的是，天然氣和其他東西可能會下滑，直到經濟活動真正再次復甦之前，這是一件很難真正確定的事情。但同樣，37 億美元是一筆很大的資金，我們非常高興能夠將其轉化為現金。

Yes, I view that as just a war chest at $10 a share. It's incredible.

是的，我認為這只是每股 10 美元的戰爭資金。太不可思議了。

And our next question comes from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的克雷格·西根塔勒。

My question is on the capital markets business. I know you're looking to grow this business. And at the 2021 Investor Day, Carlyle provided a transaction fee target of greater than $120 million by 2024. So I'm just curious if this target is still valid as we think about updating our models.

我的問題是關於資本市場業務的。我知道您正在尋求發展這項業務。在 2021 年投資者日，凱雷提出了到 2024 年交易費用超過 1.2 億美元的目標。所以我很好奇，當我們考慮更新我們的模型時，這個目標是否仍然有效。

So I wasn't here in 2021, so I can't speak to that. But we haven't set targets. I can give you a little insight into how we've been focused as a team and maybe this is more of an insight than you want, but we're systematically working on the -- with the work stream that we mobilize, we're systematically working business by business, to ensure that we have the right connectivity, the right plan literally across every pocket of the firm in terms of how we want to drive value here.

所以 2021 年我不在這裡，所以我無法談論這一點。但我們還沒有設定目標。我可以讓您了解我們作為一個團隊如何專注，也許這比您想要的更多，但我們正在系統地致力於——通過我們動員的工作流，我們正在系統地逐個業務開展工作，以確保我們在公司的每個角落都擁有正確的連接和正確的計劃，以實現我們希望如何在這裡推動價值。

And I think that as a business, I think it's a difficult business to predict. It's going to have an episodic nature to it because it's going to be sensitive to market activity. And we're not looking to be a giant capital committer here. So this is really about us moving the ball from being very small at $15 million to marginally growing. But we'll come back to you at a later date. But I would personally be reluctant to put hard targets out there, but I can give you some sense of scope when we look backwards at opportunities in the way that we approach them versus the way we would now, the opportunity looks meaningful. And I feel good about it.

我認為作為一個企業，我認為這是一個很難預測的企業。它將具有偶發性，因為它將對市場活動敏感。我們並不希望成為這裡的一個巨大的資本承諾者。因此，這實際上是我們將規模從 1500 萬美元的規模轉變為小幅增長的目標。但我們稍後會回复您。但我個人不願意設定硬性目標，但當我們以我們處理機會的方式與現在的方式回顧機會時，我可以給你一些範圍感，機會看起來很有意義。我對此感覺很好。

Thank you, Harvey. And Curtis, it was great working with you. Best of luck with your next venture.

謝謝你，哈維。柯蒂斯，與你合作真是太好了。祝您下次創業好運。

Thanks, Craig. Really appreciate it, and it's been fun.

謝謝，克雷格。真的很感激，而且很有趣。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Adam Beatty with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Adam Beatty。

Following up around realizations, I don't know if Curt gets a twofer out of this, but there's been press during the quarter and more recently around a potential monetization of a significant holding in China. And obviously, I don't expect you to comment on a specific deal. But I just wanted to broaden that out because the other part of the press piece was that the asset might be included in a continuation vehicle. So I wanted to broaden that out and just ask about the potential use of continuation vehicles at Carlyle given the amount of mature assets that you have in different portfolios and the potential benefits of that for the firm. And also maybe a comment on the deal backdrop in China.

圍繞實現這一點，我不知道科特是否會從中得到雙重利益，但本季度以及最近有關於中國大量持股的潛在貨幣化的新聞報導。顯然，我不希望您對具體交易發表評論。但我只是想擴大這一範圍，因為新聞報導的另一部分是該資產可能包含在延續工具中。因此，我想擴大這一範圍，並詢問凱雷延續工具的潛在用途，考慮到您在不同投資組合中擁有的成熟資產的數量以及這對公司的潛在好處。也許還可以評論一下中國的交易背景。

Thanks for the question. Let me make a few comments here. So first, we focus on our business operations across Asia. We've got a great track record there, and the team does just a phenomenal job really operating across Asia. China, India and many of the countries in that arena. And so feel really good about the team and what they've accomplished and what they continue to do. I'm hesitant to talk about any specific deal because things aren't done.

謝謝你的提問。我在這裡發表幾點評論。首先，我們專注於我們在亞洲的業務運營。我們在那裡擁有出色的業績記錄，並且該團隊在亞洲各地的運營工作做得非常出色。中國、印度和該領域的許多國家。因此，對團隊以及他們所取得的成就以及他們將繼續做的事情感到非常滿意。我對於談論任何具體交易都猶豫不決，因為事情還沒有完成。

Continuation funds are tools that we look at, there's complexities with continuation funds, as you're all aware, and so it's not something that we routinely do. We spend a lot of time thinking it through and examining all of the potential conflicts around that. But really, it's premature to comment on anything specifically on this. And I would say that those things also take some time to kind of pull together. So comments I made before in terms of the second half are still the right way to think about it for your near-term modeling.

延續基金是我們關注的工具，眾所周知，延續基金很複雜，所以這不是我們經常做的事情。我們花了很多時間仔細思考並檢查與之相關的所有潛在衝突。但實際上，現在對此發表具體評論還為時過早。我想說，這些事情也需要一些時間才能整合在一起。因此，我之前就下半年發表的評論仍然是您近期建模的正確思考方式。

(Operator Instructions) I have a follow-up with Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我與摩根士丹利的 Michael Cyprys 進行了跟進。

I was just hoping you could maybe elaborate a bit on the deployment pipeline and the potential for new deal activity. Maybe you could talk a little bit about how you're seeing that backdrop evolving? How are terms and structures adjusting? And given the improvement in equity markets and reduction in volatility, what seems like peak Fed funds here, I guess what are the key hurdles do you see at this point for deals getting announced and getting completed?

我只是希望您能詳細說明一下部署渠道和新交易活動的潛力。也許您可以談談您如何看待這一背景的演變？條款和結構如何調整？考慮到股市的改善和波動性的減少，聯邦基金資金似乎已達到峰值，我想您認為目前宣布和完成交易的主要障礙是什麼？

I'll give you my perspective on that. I would say that from the deal team perspective and the flows we're seeing and I would say there's been a marked improvement in sentiment. And I think we can be more optimistic about deal activity going forward. But I'd say the market still feels fragile. CEO confidence is improving. But we've had a major shift, obviously, in the cost of capital, which I talked about. And I think across the marketplace, that's still being digested. Of course, this will be worked through.

我會告訴你我對此的看法。我想說，從交易團隊的角度和我們所看到的流程來看，情緒有了明顯改善。我認為我們可以對未來的交易活動更加樂觀。但我想說市場仍然脆弱。首席執行官的信心正在改善。但顯然，我們在資本成本方面發生了重大轉變，我談到了這一點。我認為整個市場仍在消化這一點。當然，這將會得到解決。

But that would give you that perspective at a high level, but we're seeing some interesting opportunities. Our teams are being very selective in deploying capital. John, I don't know if you want to add anything to that?

但這會給你一個高層次的視角，但我們看到了一些有趣的機會。我們的團隊在部署資本時非常有選擇性。約翰，我不知道你是否想補充什麼？

Yes. Look, I think it comes down to confidence. And I think you're starting to see the level of confidence increase among executives. And I think that's a positive thing. I do think we're still absorbing the high rate environment we're in. I think that caught a lot of people off guard. Thankfully, we've hedged most of our capital structures. So look, I think you're going to start to see more activity, looking at our pipelines across the platform. Our pipeline logs are looking a little better, but I think it's going to take time.

是的。看，我認為這取決於信心。我認為你開始看到高管們的信心水平有所提高。我認為這是一件積極的事情。我確實認為我們仍在吸收所處的高利率環境。我認為這讓很多人措手不及。值得慶幸的是，我們已經對沖了大部分資本結構。所以看，我認為您將開始看到更多的活動，看看我們跨平台的管道。我們的管道日誌看起來好一些，但我認為這需要時間。

Any particular areas where you might expect activity to return first versus what may take a little bit longer and what may not come back?

您可能期望哪些特定領域的活動首先恢復，哪些領域可能需要更長的時間，哪些領域可能不會恢復？

I would say, I think you're going to see activity come back in private equity, in credit, pretty much at the same time. I don't think one is necessarily ahead or behind the other.

我想說，我認為你會看到私募股權和信貸領域的活動幾乎同時恢復。我認為一個人不一定領先或落後另一個人。

I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Daniel Harris for closing remarks.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我想將會議交還給丹尼爾·哈里斯先生致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for your time this morning and, of course, your interest in Carlyle. If you have any questions, feel free to follow up with Investor Relations after the call. Have a great day.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天早上抽出寶貴的時間，當然還有你們對凱雷的興趣。如果您有任何疑問，請隨時在電話會議後聯繫投資者關係部。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。祝大家度過美好的一天。