Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to The Carlyle Group Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們先生們，美好的一天，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加凱雷集團 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Harris, you may begin, sir.

此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管丹尼爾哈里斯先生。哈里斯先生，您可以開始了，先生。

Thank you, Howard. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Interim Chief Executive Officer, Bill Conway; our Chief Financial Officer, Curt Buser, and several leaders from the office of our CEO: Pete Clare, Chief Investment Officer for Corporate Private Equity; Mark Jenkins, Head of Global Credit; and Ruulke Bagijn, Head of Global Investment Solutions.

謝謝你，霍華德。早上好，歡迎來到凱雷 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起打電話的是我們的臨時首席執行官 Bill Conway；我們的首席財務官 Curt Buser 和我們 CEO 辦公室的幾位領導：Pete Clare，企業私募股權首席投資官；馬克詹金斯，全球信貸主管；和全球投資解決方案主管 Ruulke Bagijn。

Bill and Curt will begin with some prepared remarks, and then the entire Carlyle team will be available for your Q&A. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website.

Bill 和 Curt 將首先準備好一些評論，然後整個凱雷團隊將參與您的問答。此電話會議正在進行網絡直播，重播將在我們的網站上提供。

We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We have provided reconciliations of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release.

我們將在今天的電話會議中提及某些非 GAAP 財務措施。這些措施不應孤立於或替代根據公認會計原則編制的措施。我們已在我們的收益發布中向 GAAP 提供了這些措施的對賬。

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K and could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicators. Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time.

今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述都不能保證未來的表現，不應過分依賴它們。這些陳述基於當前的管理層預期，涉及固有的風險和不確定性，包括我們在 10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中確定的風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些指標存在重大差異。凱雷不承擔隨時更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is also available on our Investor Relations website.

今天上午早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和一份詳細的收益報告，也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

We're going to begin with a quick discussion of our results and then hand the call over to Bill. For the third quarter, we generated $213 million in fee-related earnings and $644 million in distributable earnings.

我們將首先快速討論我們的結果，然後將電話交給比爾。第三季度，我們產生了 2.13 億美元的費用相關收益和 6.44 億美元的可分配收益。

Cumulated earnings of $213 million increased 40% compared to the third quarter of 2021. Year-to-date, FRE of $632 million is 49% higher year-over-year through a combination of strong organic growth as well as the positive impact of various strategic transactions completed earlier this year. FRE declined sequentially from the second quarter, largely due to 2 items we signaled last quarter. Catch-up management fees totaled $10 million compared to $19 million in the second quarter, and fee-related performance revenue was also lower sequentially.

與 2021 年第三季度相比，累計收益為 2.13 億美元，增長 40%。年初至今，FRE 為 6.32 億美元，同比增長 49%，得益於強勁的有機增長以及各種積極影響戰略交易於今年早些時候完成。 FRE 從第二季度開始連續下降，這主要是由於我們上個季度發出信號的 2 個項目。追趕管理費總額為 1000 萬美元，而第二季度為 1900 萬美元，與費用相關的績效收入也環比下降。

Distributable earnings was $644 million this quarter, and year-to-date DE of $1.5 billion is 10% ahead of last year's $1.3 billion and is already more than double any prior full year results other than our record results from last year. On an after-tax basis, we generated $1.42 in DE per share for the third quarter and $3.33 year-to-date.

本季度可分配收益為 6.44 億美元，今年迄今的 DE 為 15 億美元，比去年的 13 億美元高出 10%，並且已經比我們去年創紀錄的業績高出一倍多。在稅後基礎上，我們第三季度每股收益為 1.42 美元，年初至今為 3.33 美元。

We declared a quarterly dividend of $0.325 per common share.

我們宣布派發每股普通股 0.325 美元的季度股息。

With that, let me turn the call over to our Interim Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder, Bill Conway.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給我們的臨時首席執行官兼聯合創始人 Bill Conway。

Thank you, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. It's been a while since I've spoken with many of you, but I'm pleased to be on the call today to discuss Carlyle's results for the quarter. While Carlyle is in a transition period as we move towards a new CEO, the firm is operating well, and I'm proud of our teams around the world as we continue to perform for all of our stakeholders.

謝謝你，丹。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。自從我與你們中的許多人交談以來已經有一段時間了，但我很高興今天能在電話中討論凱雷本季度的業績。雖然 Carlyle 正處於過渡期，因為我們正在尋找新的 CEO，但公司運營良好，我為我們在世界各地的團隊感到自豪，因為我們繼續為所有利益相關者提供服務。

There are 2 important points I'd like to focus on today. First, I'll touch on the results and highlight the strength and diversity of Carlyle's global business. Second, as we navigate a challenging market and a difficult economic environment, I'll discuss how our approach and investment experience is helping us manage through economic uncertainty and positioning the firm for the future. I'll also give a brief comment on the status of our search for a permanent CEO.

今天我想重點關注兩點。首先，我將談談結果並強調凱雷全球業務的實力和多樣性。其次，在我們應對充滿挑戰的市場和困難的經濟環境時，我將討論我們的方法和投資經驗如何幫助我們應對經濟不確定性並為公司的未來定位。我還將對我們尋找永久 CEO 的情況做一個簡短的評論。

First, let me provide some perspective on Carlyle today. In the third quarter, Carlyle delivered solid results for our fund investors and our shareholders despite the market volatility. And year-to-date, our results are just strong, with FRE up almost 50%. None of this is by chance. We were able to deliver this outcome due to the breadth and depth of our businesses, strong business leadership and highly capable investment teams around the world.

首先，讓我談談今天對凱雷的一些看法。第三季度，凱雷在市場波動的情況下為我們的基金投資者和股東帶來了可觀的業績。今年迄今為止，我們的業績非常強勁，FRE 增長了近 50%。這一切都不是偶然的。由於我們業務的廣度和深度、強大的業務領導力和遍布全球的高能力投資團隊，我們能夠取得這一成果。

Let me be very clear, the firm's strategic focus on growing fee-related earnings, diversifying our business mix and earnings stream and improving the way in which we operate has not changed at all. These core tenets will not change regardless of who is leading the firm.

讓我非常清楚，公司的戰略重點是增加與費用相關的收入、多元化我們的業務組合和收入來源以及改進我們的運營方式，這一點沒有改變。無論誰領導公司，這些核心原則都不會改變。

We have 3 global business segments that are run by 3 strong leaders, each of which serves as stewards of investor capital and drivers of growth for our shareholders. Ruulke Bagijn in Global Investment Solutions; Pete Clare in Global Private Equity; and Mark Jenkins in Global Credit are all on the call with me today, and you'll have the opportunity to ask them your questions later.

我們有 3 個全球業務部門，由 3 位強大的領導者管理，每個人都擔任投資者資本的管家和股東增長的驅動力。全球投資解決方案部門的 Ruulke Bagijn；全球私募股權部門的 Pete Clare； Global Credit 的 Mark Jenkins 和 Mark Jenkins 今天都在和我通電話，稍後您將有機會向他們提問。

As we navigate through more challenging markets than any of us have seen in a decade, the firm is in an enviable position. Carlyle and I have been doing this for 35 years, and we've seen all types of markets and economic cycles. We are confident that each of our businesses have the resources, investment talent and capital of over $74 billion of dry powder to capture opportunities for our stakeholders. Our teams are highly experienced and have worked together through various cycles. In fact, the partners of our investment teams have worked together with Carlyle for more than 15 years on average, with decades more at firms across the globe.

當我們穿越十年來從未見過的更具挑戰性的市場時，該公司處於令人羨慕的地位。凱雷和我從事這行已有 35 年，我們見過各種類型的市場和經濟周期。我們相信，我們的每個企業都擁有超過 740 億美元的資源、投資人才和資本，可以為我們的利益相關者抓住機會。我們的團隊經驗豐富，並且在不同的周期中一起工作。事實上，我們投資團隊的合夥人平均與凱雷合作超過 15 年，在全球各地的公司工作的時間更久。

Moving on, let me discuss the broader environment and how that impacts our investment outlook. All of you see the same things we do: rising interest rates, high levels of inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, each of which lead to increased market volatility and headwinds for investors and operators. This is unlikely to resolve in the short term, though our teams are not sitting back and waiting for better days.

繼續，讓我討論更廣泛的環境以及它如何影響我們的投資前景。你們所有人都看到了我們所做的同樣的事情：利率上升、高通脹、地緣政治不確定性，每一個都會導致市場波動加劇，並給投資者和運營商帶來不利影響。這不太可能在短期內解決，儘管我們的團隊不會坐以待斃。

Certainly, this market is tougher for some parts of our businesses than others. But on some parts of the business, this environment will create opportunities, and 2 examples come to mind: our credit opportunities business, which should see far more lucrative places to put money to work, and our Solutions business, which will have even more chances at attractive returns to finance buyers and sellers of existing fund positions.

當然，這個市場對我們業務的某些部分來說比其他部分更艱難。但在業務的某些部分，這種環境會創造機會，我想到了兩個例子：我們的信貸機會業務，應該看到更有利可圖的地方投入資金，以及我們的解決方案業務，這將有更多機會以有吸引力的回報為現有基金頭寸的買賣雙方融資。

One of our core strengths has been in the area of investment risk management, particularly in the construction of our portfolios. We certainly take risk. You can't make money without doing so, but we need to get paid for the risk we take. Until recently, the investors who have made the most money have taken the most risk. That isn't our style. Portfolio construction matters. It's the differentiator that continues to position our business to deliver outside relative performance for fund investors across market cycles.

我們的核心優勢之一是投資風險管理領域，尤其是在我們的投資組合構建方面。我們當然要冒險。不這樣做你無法賺錢，但我們需要為我們承擔的風險獲得報酬。直到最近，賺了最多錢的投資者也承擔了最大的風險。那不是我們的風格。投資組合建設很重要。它是繼續定位我們的業務以在整個市場週期為基金投資者提供外部相對業績的差異化因素。

Our portfolios are built with diversification by geography, industries, deal size and risk. And portfolio construction isn't just in our private equity business but in Global Credit and global solutions as well. For instance, in our CLO businesses -- CLO portfolios where we manage hundreds of credits, this investment strategy has led to default rates at half the industry average. Another example would be our U.S. Real Estate business, which is investing its ninth closed-end fund with committed capital of $8 billion. This is an experienced team with a long and successful track record.

我們的投資組合是根據地域、行業、交易規模和風險來構建的。投資組合構建不僅存在於我們的私募股權業務中，還存在於全球信貸和全球解決方案中。例如，在我們的 CLO 業務中——我們管理數百個信用的 CLO 投資組合，這種投資策略導致違約率只有行業平均水平的一半。另一個例子是我們的美國房地產業務，它正在投資其第九隻封閉式基金，承諾資本為 80 億美元。這是一支經驗豐富的團隊，有著悠久而成功的記錄。

In terms of portfolio construction, they favored demographics over GDP. Their current fund has almost no exposure to office, hotel and retail, which represents 60% of a typical real estate fund. In volatile markets like today's, our fund results should reflect the benefits of our strategy, and so far, they have.

在投資組合構建方面，他們更看好人口統計而非 GDP。他們目前的基金幾乎沒有涉足寫字樓、酒店和零售，這佔典型房地產基金的 60%。在像今天這樣動蕩的市場中，我們的基金業績應該反映出我們戰略的好處，到目前為止，它們已經做到了。

Before I close, let me comment on our search for a permanent CEO. In short, the search continues. The Board and Search Committee are making good progress finding the right leader, and we do not have any additional information to provide at this time.

在我結束之前，讓我評論一下我們對永久 CEO 的尋找。簡而言之，搜索仍在繼續。董事會和遴選委員會在尋找合適的領導者方面取得了良好進展，我們目前沒有任何其他信息可以提供。

I'll finish where I started. Carlyle has the capital and expertise to have a long-term focus, which has served our investors well for decades. We have 3 strong segments that are well positioned to navigate the current environment and capture value. Our quarterly and year-to-date results underscore the strength of this platform, and Carlyle has delivered through various market cycles and transitions. I'm proud of where we are today and feel that we can continue driving long-term shareholder value.

我會在我開始的地方結束。凱雷擁有長期關注的資本和專業知識，幾十年來一直為我們的投資者提供良好的服務。我們有 3 個強大的細分市場，可以很好地應對當前環境並獲取價值。我們的季度和年初至今的業績凸顯了這個平台的實力，凱雷已經經歷了各種市場週期和轉型。我為我們今天的處境感到自豪，並認為我們可以繼續推動長期股東價值。

With that, I'll hand things over to Curt Buser, our Chief Financial Officer.

有了這個，我將把事情交給我們的首席財務官 Curt Buser。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. As you've heard, Carlyle delivered strong third quarter and year-to-date results in a particularly challenging quarter, a testament to the strength of our investment platform and the quality of our 3 global business segments. While economic and geopolitical uncertainties are creating headwinds, our business continues to deliver impactful results.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。正如您所知，凱雷在一個特別具有挑戰性的季度中取得了強勁的第三季度和年初至今的業績，這證明了我們投資平台的實力和我們 3 個全球業務部門的質量。儘管經濟和地緣政治的不確定性造成不利影響，但我們的業務繼續取得有影響力的成果。

Consider the following: Fee-related earnings of $632 million year-to-date are up almost 50% from the same period last year and are already higher than any full year in the firm's history. Our carry funds across asset classes and geographies have appreciated 10% year-to-date. As Bill noted, our portfolio construction and proven investment approach is why we are delivering outsized returns, and we are well positioned to continue to do so.

考慮以下因素：今年迄今與費用相關的收益為 6.32 億美元，比去年同期增長近 50%，已經高於公司歷史上的任何一個全年。我們跨資產類別和地區的套利基金今年迄今已升值 10%。正如比爾指出的那樣，我們的投資組合構建和行之有效的投資方法是我們提供超額回報的原因，而且我們有能力繼續這樣做。

Our net accrued performance revenue of $4.1 billion is up from $3.9 billion at the end of last year, and that is after realizing $780 million of net performance revenue year-to-date. And while fundraising is clearly more challenging this year, we have raised $25 billion in new capital year-to-date. That translates into almost $90 billion in new capital formation when you include completed strategic transactions such as Fortitude and CBAM.

我們的淨應計績效收入從去年年底的 39 億美元增加到 41 億美元，這是在今年迄今實現 7.8 億美元的淨績效收入之後。雖然今年籌款顯然更具挑戰性，但今年迄今為止我們已經籌集了 250 億美元的新資本。如果包括 Fortitude 和 CBAM 等已完成的戰略交易，這將轉化為近 900 億美元的新資本形成。

With that backdrop, let me provide an update on each of our global business segments. And then I'll dig into the financial results.

在此背景下，讓我介紹一下我們每個全球業務部門的最新情況。然後我將深入研究財務結果。

Our Global Private Equity business continues to deliver solid results across Corporate Private Equity, Real Estate, Infrastructure and Natural Resources. Fee-related earnings year-to-date in Global Private Equity of $409 million has increased 45%, with both top line growth and margin expansion. Our current vintage of funds taking carry has led to strong current carry generation. And as we look forward, we note that we have an equivalent amount of net accrued carry in funds that has not yet taken carry as we do from those currently generating cash carry. So we believe we are well positioned to continue to generate strong performance revenues in future periods.

我們的全球私募股權業務繼續在企業私募股權、房地產、基礎設施和自然資源領域取得可觀的業績。全球私募股權今年迄今與費用相關的收益為 4.09 億美元，增長了 45%，收入增長和利潤率均有所增長。我們當前的套利基金年份導致了強勁的當前套利產生。當我們展望未來時，我們注意到我們有等量的淨應計套利資金尚未與我們目前產生現金套利的基金一樣。因此，我們相信我們有能力在未來期間繼續產生強勁的業績收入。

Global Private Equity is also poised for future growth, having raised almost $10 billion in new capital year-to-date and having deployed almost $16 billion into new investments. While in the near term, the pace of Corporate Private Equity deployment and realization is likely to slow given challenging capital markets, and we've already seen the impact of slower CPE fundraising, over the long term, we see significant opportunities for continued growth across our Global Private Equity investment platform.

全球私募股權也為未來的增長做好了準備，今年迄今已籌集了近 100 億美元的新資本，並已將近 160 億美元用於新投資。雖然在短期內，鑑於充滿挑戰的資本市場，企業私募股權部署和實現的步伐可能會放緩，而且我們已經看到 CPE 融資放緩的影響，但從長期來看，我們看到了持續增長的重要機會我們的全球私募股權投資平台。

In Global Credit, our assets under management have nearly doubled in just this year to $141 billion, and FRE has more than doubled year-to-date as the impact from our strategic transactions has been highly accretive. Our investment teams are active across the liquidity spectrum, taking advantage of market dislocations to invest in opportunities with increasingly desirable risk reward characteristics. Many of our largest strategies are floating rate in nature. So fund investors benefit from increased current yields.

在 Global Credit 中，我們管理的資產在今年幾乎翻了一番，達到 1410 億美元，而 FRE 今年迄今翻了一番多，因為我們的戰略交易的影響已經高度增加。我們的投資團隊活躍於流動性領域，利用市場錯位投資風險回報特徵越來越理想的機會。我們許多最大的策略本質上都是浮動利率。因此，基金投資者受益於當前收益率的提高。

At the same time, while current credit quality remains good, we are actively positioning our portfolios to withstand worsening economic conditions and potentially higher default rates. We do not anticipate any near-term challenges that put existing management fee streams at risk, though a slower pace of activity may slow capital markets transaction fees.

與此同時，雖然目前的信貸質量仍然良好，但我們正在積極調整我們的投資組合，以承受不斷惡化的經濟狀況和可能更高的違約率。我們預計近期不會有任何挑戰將現有管理費用流置於風險之中，儘管活動步伐放緩可能會降低資本市場交易費用。

Looking at future growth, Global Credit has raised $12 billion of new capital this year across 11 strategies. Year-to-date CLO formation has been strong, with 7 new CLOs priced for $3 billion, though velocity is slowing due to market conditions. Direct Lending generated near record originations in the quarter, with gross new loans of more than $1.5 billion, and we are seeing significant demand for private credit across our asset type and geography. And Fortitude continues to perform well with a robust pipeline of growth opportunities, and we continue to expect it can double its size over the next few years.

展望未來增長，Global Credit 今年通過 11 項戰略籌集了 120 億美元的新資金。年初至今 CLO 的形成一直很強勁，有 7 個新的 CLO 定價為 30 億美元，但由於市場狀況，速度正在放緩。本季度直接貸款的發放量接近創紀錄水平，新貸款總額超過 15 億美元，而且我們看到對我們資產類型和地域的私人信貸需求巨大。 Fortitude 憑藉強大的增長機會管道繼續表現良好，我們繼續預計它可以在未來幾年內將其規模翻一番。

Moving to Global Investment Solutions. This business is well positioned to support the increasing liquidity and portfolio management needs of global fund investors. Secondary investment activity is poised to accelerate as fund investors seek to optimize their own portfolios given market volatility. Global Investment Solutions has seen year-to-date FRE tick lower to $55 million, partially owing to the negative impact of foreign exchange rates. However, AlpInvest is making strong progress, investing in their current vintages of co-investment and secondary funds and are likely to be back in the market to raise their next generation of funds sooner than expected. Global Investment Solutions appreciation was flat in the quarter and is up 9% year-to-date, with net accrued carry of $365 million, up more than 14% year-to-date.

轉向全球投資解決方案。該業務完全有能力支持全球基金投資者日益增長的流動性和投資組合管理需求。鑑於市場波動，隨著基金投資者尋求優化自己的投資組合，二級投資活動有望加速。 Global Investment Solutions 年初至今的 FRE 已降至 5500 萬美元，部分原因是外匯匯率的負面影響。然而，AlpInvest 正在取得重大進展，投資於他們當前的共同投資和二級基金，並且很可能會比預期更快地回到市場上籌集他們的下一代基金。全球投資解決方案的增值在本季度持平，今年迄今增長 9%，淨應計利差為 3.65 億美元，今年迄今增長超過 14%。

To summarize, we expect the pace of activity to slow over the next few quarters in certain areas, while others will remain active. This is why our diversification strategy remains core to our future growth. And importantly, as we've seen in past cycles, the work and diligence we do now positions us to come out on the other side that much more ready to act.

總而言之，我們預計未來幾個季度某些領域的活動步伐將放緩，而其他領域將保持活躍。這就是為什麼我們的多元化戰略仍然是我們未來增長的核心。重要的是，正如我們在過去的周期中看到的那樣，我們現在所做的工作和勤奮使我們能夠站在另一邊，更願意採取行動。

Turning back now to firm-wide results. Let me dig deeper into third quarter earnings. Let's start with fee-related earnings. As Dan mentioned, third quarter fee revenues are down about $24 million from the second quarter due to lower catch-up management fees and fee-related performance revenues. That said, fee revenues are up a robust 31% from a year ago. And as a reminder, more than 90% of our management fee revenues are in closed-end fund structures and not subject to redemptions.

現在回到公司範圍內的結果。讓我更深入地研究第三季度的收益。讓我們從與費用相關的收入開始。正如 Dan 所提到的，由於追趕管理費和與費用相關的績效收入較低，第三季度的費用收入比第二季度下降了約 2400 萬美元。也就是說，手續費收入比一年前強勁增長了 31%。提醒一下，我們 90% 以上的管理費收入都是封閉式基金結構，不受贖回限制。

Cash-based compensation expense in the third quarter was down sequentially, largely as a function of lower fee-related performance revenue and the impact of foreign exchange on translation of compensation in Europe. G&A expenses of $101 million in the third quarter increased as we hosted our Global Investment Conference, and travel and entertainment largely returned to prepandemic levels. Expenses continue to be impacted by inflationary pressure and a strong labor market that will continue to impact expenses into 2023.

第三季度基於現金的薪酬支出環比下降，這主要是由於與費用相關的業績收入下降以及外匯對歐洲薪酬換算的影響。由於我們舉辦了全球投資會議，第三季度的 G&A 費用增加了 1.01 億美元，旅行和娛樂基本上恢復到大流行前的水平。支出繼續受到通脹壓力和強勁的勞動力市場的影響，這將繼續影響到 2023 年的支出。

FRE margin was 37% in the third quarter. And year-to-date FRE margin of 38% increased more than 400 basis points year-over-year.

第三季度的 FRE 利潤率為 37%。年初至今的 FRE 利潤率為 38%，同比增長超過 400 個基點。

For the full year, we now expect fee-related earnings to be between $825 million and $850 million, with the headwinds from foreign exchange translation, slowing buyout fundraising and unit transaction fees, each impacting expected full year results. That said, we still expect 2022 FRE to increase more than 35% compared to 2021, and we remain confident that our long-term FRE growth trend remains intact.

對於全年，我們現在預計與費用相關的收入將在 8.25 億美元至 8.5 億美元之間，外匯換算帶來的阻力、收購融資放緩和單位交易費用都會影響預期的全年業績。也就是說，我們仍然預計 2022 年 FRE 將比 2021 年增長 35% 以上，我們仍然相信我們的長期 FRE 增長趨勢保持不變。

Net realized performance revenues of $391 million in the third quarter were our third largest quarter on record. Year-to-date, net realized performance revenues of $780 million highlights the strength of our portfolio and our team's ability to monetize investments despite difficult conditions. I said last quarter that I expected our second half of 2022 net realized performance revenues to exceed the first half of the year. With just the third quarter's result, we've already surpassed that goal.

第三季度實現的淨績效收入為 3.91 億美元，是我們有記錄以來的第三大季度。年初至今，7.8 億美元的淨實現業績收入凸顯了我們投資組合的實力以及我們團隊在困難條件下將投資貨幣化的能力。我在上個季度說過，我預計我們 2022 年下半年實現的淨績效收入將超過上半年。僅憑第三季度的成績，我們就已經超越了這個目標。

Our net accrued performance revenue balance of $4.1 billion and remaining fair value of investments in our carry funds of $136 billion gives us confidence that, over time, we will realize a high level of performance revenue and distributable earnings. Our accrued carry remains near record levels despite significant declines in public market valuations and increasingly higher discount and cap rates used in our valuation process. Today, our accrual represents over $11 per share in future earnings power.

我們 41 億美元的淨應計業績收入餘額和 1360 億美元的附帶基金投資的剩餘公允價值使我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們將實現高水平的業績收入和可分配收益。儘管公開市場估值大幅下降以及我們估值過程中使用的折扣率和上限率越來越高，但我們的應計利差仍接近創紀錄水平。今天，我們的應計利潤代表未來盈利能力每股超過 11 美元。

So let me wrap up. We're performing well against the challenging backdrop. We're focused on growing and diversifying fee-related earnings and expanding the capabilities of our firm to drive long-term shareholder value. More broadly, each of our 3 global business segments are well positioned to deliver growth and outsized returns for our stakeholders.

所以讓我總結一下。在充滿挑戰的背景下，我們表現良好。我們專注於增加和多樣化與費用相關的收入，並擴大我們公司推動長期股東價值的能力。更廣泛地說，我們的 3 個全球業務部門中的每一個都處於有利地位，可以為我們的利益相關者帶來增長和超額回報。

Now let me turn the call over to the operator so we can take your questions.

現在讓我將電話轉給接線員，以便我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question or comment comes from the line of Bill Katz from Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題或評論來自瑞士信貸的 Bill Katz。

Maybe first question, Bill, just as you think about -- I appreciate you have nothing else to say, but maybe you can help us understand what factors or dynamics you're looking for in a new CEO. How are you thinking about internal versus external candidates? And what, if anything, did you learn in terms of this transition about where the franchise is headed?

也許第一個問題，比爾，就像你想的那樣——我很感激你沒有別的要說，但也許你可以幫助我們了解你在新 CEO 身上尋找的因素或動態。您如何看待內部候選人和外部候選人？如果有的話，你從這次轉變中學到了什麼關於特許經營權的發展方向？

Thanks for the question, Bill, and you know I really can't answer it. And because of that, we're going to give you a bonus question. But having said that, we are making good progress on finding the right leader. We want to find somebody that is better than I am would be one of the comments I'd make. And we don't really have anything additional to add at this time. But as soon as we do, we'll report to you. And of course, in the interim, the firm is operating well and from a position of strength. But take your bonus question.

謝謝你的問題，比爾，你知道我真的無法回答。正因為如此，我們會給你一個額外的問題。但話雖如此，我們在尋找合適的領導者方面取得了良好進展。我們想找到比我更好的人，這將是我要發表的評論之一。現在我們真的沒有什麼要補充的了。但一旦我們這樣做，我們就會向你報告。當然，在此期間，該公司運營良好，處於強勢地位。但是拿你的獎金問題。

I gave it a shot. So just maybe in terms of one of the biggest things we hear on the storyline is that without the leadership, it's going to be very difficult to grow the business on top of sort of a very difficult backdrop in your AUM SKU. So I appreciate you're running through 3 businesses. But can you just sort of level set where we are in terms of your prior goals to raise assets and, as you look ahead, help us understand where you see the best opportunities? Maybe it sounds like the Investment Solutions side. But just anything to help us frame out sort of a path to higher fee-paying AUM.

我試了一下。因此，也許就我們在故事情節中聽到的最重要的事情之一而言，如果沒有領導，在您的 AUM SKU 中非常困難的背景下發展業務將非常困難。所以我很感激你經營著 3 家公司。但是，您能否就您先前籌集資產的目標設定我們的水平，並在您展望未來時幫助我們了解您在哪裡看到最好的機會？也許這聽起來像是投資解決方案方面。但只要能幫助我們制定一條通向更高收費 AUM 的道路，就可以了。

Bill, it's Curt. Let me kick it off, and then I'm going to ask some of my partners maybe to join in afterwards.

比爾，我是柯特。讓我開始吧，然後我會邀請我的一些合作夥伴加入。

So let me just bring you back to the beginning of 2021, which actually wasn't that long ago. And we set a goal for 2024 to generate $800 million of fee-related earnings, $800 million of net realized performance revenues and $1.6 billion of pretax DE. We've met those goals. This year, year-to-date, $1.5 billion of DE, and that's just through 3 quarters. Last year, obviously, record numbers.

因此，讓我帶您回到 2021 年初，這實際上並不是很久以前的事。我們為 2024 年設定了一個目標，即產生 8 億美元的費用相關收入、8 億美元的淨實現績效收入和 16 億美元的稅前 DE。我們已經實現了這些目標。今年，年初至今，DE 為 15 億美元，而這剛剛過去 3 個季度。去年，顯然，創紀錄的數字。

From a fundraising and capital accumulation perspective, we generated about -- we raised about $50 billion last year. This year, $25 billion year-to-date. More importantly, roughly $90 billion of capital accumulation when you consider the strategic transaction we've also had.

從籌資和資本積累的角度來看，我們去年籌集了大約 500 億美元。今年，今年迄今為 250 億美元。更重要的是，當你考慮我們也進行的戰略交易時，大約有 900 億美元的資本積累。

Our relationships are good with our LPs. We're continuing to work on those relationships. Pete's on the road as we speak here today doing just that. And I would just say that the prospects for the future remain really good. I mean I'm eager about all of the market dislocations that we're seeing here because I know that my colleagues are going to really take advantage of this.

我們與有限合夥人的關係很好。我們正在繼續致力於這些關係。當我們今天在這裡發言時，皮特正在路上做這件事。我只想說未來的前景仍然非常好。我的意思是，我很期待我們在這裡看到的所有市場混亂，因為我知道我的同事們會真正利用這一點。

So I'll pause there and see if any of my colleagues want to join in on what I just said.

所以我會在那裡暫停一下，看看我的同事是否願意加入我剛才所說的內容。

Peter speaking. Bill, thanks for the question. And I'll just add a perspective on fundraising on the Global Private Equity side. Overall, our -- as you heard from Curt, our funds are performing really well, with 10% appreciation across all of our carry-generating funds, a little bit higher than that across the Global Private Equity business. As Bill mentioned, the portfolio construction really matters. And one of the hallmarks of our investment strategy is to build portfolios that have less risk and really resilient earning power in the businesses that we invest in and that will outperform in tougher economic times as our funds have done historically in tough economic times.

彼得說話。比爾，謝謝你的提問。我將在全球私募股權方面添加一個關於籌款的觀點。總的來說，我們——正如你從 Curt 那裡聽到的那樣，我們的基金表現非常好，我們所有產生利差的基金都有 10% 的升值，略高於全球私募股權業務。正如 Bill 提到的，投資組合構建非常重要。我們投資策略的標誌之一是在我們投資的企業中建立風險較低和真正具有彈性盈利能力的投資組合，並且在經濟困難時期表現出色，就像我們的基金在經濟困難時期的歷史表現一樣。

And I think that track record of really consistent returns in tough economic environment is going to help us on the fundraising front. So even though the market's clearly congested, fundraising for large buyouts has slowed down, we do expect that, ultimately, all of our funds that we're currently raising now will, in aggregate, come in at a similar size to the current vintages.

而且我認為在艱難的經濟環境中真正穩定的回報記錄將在籌款方面幫助我們。因此，即使市場明顯擁擠，大型收購的籌資速度已經放緩，但我們確實預計，最終，我們目前正在籌集的所有資金，總的來說，規模將與當前年份相似。

But it's important to remember, you can (inaudible) a lot broader today than just buyouts, and we're growing in many other areas. Our U.S. Real Estate business is growing significantly. Our Europe Technology business has grown a lot. And you'll probably hear more from Mark and Ruulke how the growth that we're seeing in credit and in Global Solutions.

但重要的是要記住，今天你可以（聽不清）比收購更廣泛，而且我們在許多其他領域都在增長。我們的美國房地產業務正在顯著增長。我們的歐洲技術業務增長了很多。您可能會從 Mark 和 Ruulke 那裡聽到更多關於我們在信貸和全球解決方案方面看到的增長情況。

Yes. Bill, it's Mark Jenkins here on the credit side. I would say, similar to Pete, I mean, I've been on the road talking with our investors. There is a sense of opportunity when we talk to our investors about what's going on in the credit markets in particular as they've seen a repricing of risk, and we're taking advantage of that.

是的。比爾，我是信用方面的馬克詹金斯。我會說，與皮特類似，我的意思是，我一直在路上與我們的投資者交談。當我們與投資者談論信貸市場正在發生的事情時，就會有一種機會感，尤其是當他們看到風險重新定價時，我們正在利用這一點。

Similar to Pete, I mean, we have a broad platform here at Carlyle that spans everything from liquid to illiquid or private credit and real assets. And I would say across the opportunistic slate, and frankly, even on the CLO space, we continue to see growth. And as we go down the various channels, whether that's institutional, insurance or retail, we continue to see those as great avenues of growth for the business and opportunities for our investors.

與皮特類似，我的意思是，我們在凱雷擁有一個廣泛的平台，涵蓋從流動性到非流動性或私人信貸和實物資產的一切。我要說的是，在所有機會主義領域，坦率地說，即使在 CLO 領域，我們也繼續看到增長。隨著我們走下各種渠道，無論是機構、保險還是零售，我們繼續將這些視為業務增長的重要途徑和投資者的機會。

Yes. This is Ruulke. In terms of growth, our platform is very well positioned to benefit from the market conditions, especially with liquidity needs increasing across markets. And let me also remind you a bit about AlpInvest. We manage $63 billion of assets management. And that secondary is our largest and most profitable part of our business, managing $21 billion of assets under management, but we also have leading co-investment and climate fund investment businesses.

是的。這是魯爾克。在增長方面，我們的平台處於有利地位，可以從市場條件中受益，尤其是隨著市場流動性需求的增加。讓我也提醒你一些關於 AlpInvest 的事情。我們管理著 630 億美元的資產管理。二級市場是我們業務中規模最大、利潤最高的部分，管理著 210 億美元的管理資產，但我們也擁有領先的共同投資和氣候基金投資業務。

Our performance has been strong, with long-term net outperformance across all strategies of around 500 to 1,100 basis points for the last 10 years but also over the last 20 years. And we continue to deploy also despite the current market conditions, and we expect actually to be back in the market next year with several strategies and being able from the opportunities that we see in the market, which are especially obviously also present in the secondary business where liquidity needs are increasing across markets at this point in time.

我們的表現一直很強勁，在過去 10 年以及過去 20 年中，所有策略的長期淨表現都超過 500 至 1,100 個基點。儘管目前的市場狀況，我們仍在繼續部署，我們預計明年實際上會以多種策略重返市場，並能夠從我們在市場上看到的機會中獲益，這些機會在二級業務中也特別明顯此時各個市場的流動性需求都在增加。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Ken Worthington from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自摩根大通的 Ken Worthington。

Public shareholders seem to be concerned about the leadership uncertainty, and I think we can see that in the underperformance of the shares. Commitments this quarter seems so-so, and logic would suggest that leadership uncertainty could be a factor here. So the question is, do you think leadership uncertainty is having an impact on fundraising? If so, how meaningful is that uncertainty having on either the size or timing of commitments? And then I guess, most importantly, do you think the choice of a new CEO can win back concerned clients? Or is the damage somewhat irreversible for funds in market right now?

公眾股東似乎擔心領導層的不確定性，我認為我們可以從股票表現不佳中看出這一點。本季度的承諾似乎一般，邏輯表明領導層的不確定性可能是一個因素。所以問題是，你認為領導層的不確定性對籌款有影響嗎？如果是這樣，這種不確定性對承諾的規模或時間有多大意義？然後我想，最重要的是，您認為選擇新 CEO 可以贏回關注的客戶嗎？還是目前市場上的基金所受的損害有些不可逆轉？

Thanks, Ken. Well, the short answer would be no, in terms of the impact of the CEO change on fundraising. I've been on the road a lot myself talking to investors. Pete was right when he said that it has slowed down due to congestion in the markets. But I think I don't see any long-term damage at all in this. And remember, I'm an investor. I've been an investor for 35 years. I was the Chief Investment Officer to Carlyle before I was the CEO the first time. And I think the investors in our funds, they like seeing somebody at the top who they know understands exactly what they're trying to accomplish.

謝謝，肯。嗯，就 CEO 變動對籌款的影響而言，簡短的回答是否定的。我一直在路上與投資者交談。當皮特說由於市場擁堵而放緩時，他是對的。但我認為我根本看不到任何長期損害。請記住，我是一名投資者。我已經做了 35 年的投資者。在我第一次擔任首席執行官之前，我是凱雷的首席投資官。而且我認為我們基金的投資者，他們喜歡看到他們認識的高層人士確切地了解他們正在努力實現的目標。

And let me just add on to that. Ken, it's Curt. Look, I think there's a couple of things that are really important here. First, the aggregate dynamics that are affecting lots of the private equity players, not just us, the denominator effect, the congestion in the market, et cetera. So look, we're falling prey to that like others are. But our diversification and other products, whether it's in energy, natural resources, credit solutions, as you've heard, the experience is very different based on that performance, and industry and sector matter a whole lot. We're seeing a lot of good opportunities there. And so I think that the comment that you started out with was around leadership. People are seeing the very strong leadership that we have across our funds and our teams, and who's at the top matters but not to the extent that you're implying in your question.

讓我補充一點。肯，是柯特。看，我認為這裡有幾件事非常重要。首先，影響許多私募股權參與者的總體動態，而不僅僅是我們，分母效應，市場擁堵等等。所以看，我們正像其他人一樣陷入困境。但是我們的多元化和其他產品，無論是在能源、自然資源、信貸解決方案方面，正如你所聽到的，根據表現，經驗是非常不同的，行業和部門非常重要。我們在那裡看到了很多好機會。所以我認為你一開始的評論是關於領導力的。人們看到我們在我們的基金和團隊中擁有非常強大的領導力，誰是最重要的，但沒有達到你在問題中暗示的程度。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Patrick Davitt from Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

My question is on Solutions. You and others are obviously hyping up how big of an opportunity this could be as investors increasingly look for liquidity. But to your point on AlpInvest needing to be back in the market, there's obviously another side of the equation, right? You need to raise the dry powder to take advantage of that. So why is this a strategy that you think will really have a lot of demand given where we are in the cycle as it seems LP demand is really skewing more towards things like real assets, infrastructure and private credit?

我的問題是關於解決方案。隨著投資者越來越多地尋求流動性，你和其他人顯然在大肆宣傳這可能是一個多麼大的機會。但就您關於 AlpInvest 需要重返市場的觀點而言，顯然還有另一面，對吧？您需要提高乾粉以利用它。那麼，鑑於我們所處的周期，LP 需求似乎確實更傾向於實物資產、基礎設施和私人信貸等事物，那麼為什麼您認為這種策略真的會有很多需求？

Yes. I think that's a great question. I mean let me also be clear. I mean we do have a very significant dry powder at this point in time for the strategy, which is good because the market is changing as we speak. What we've seen is that public market valuations have decreased much faster than private market valuations. And I think as you are aware, the percentage of illiquid holdings of total AUM of larger investors in the U.S. has increased very significantly.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是讓我也說清楚。我的意思是，我們在這個時間點確實有非常重要的戰略幹火藥，這很好，因為市場在我們說話時正在發生變化。我們所看到的是，公開市場估值的下降速度遠快於私人市場估值。而且我認為，正如您所知，美國大型投資者的總資產管理規模中非流動性持有量的百分比已經顯著增加。

As a result of the denominator effect, LPs are considering their portfolios. They consider portfolio rebalancing. They consider selling part of their portfolios. And that's typically an area that to the extent that LPs are considering to sell part of their private equity exposure, that is an area we can obviously greatly benefit as a platform with our secondary business.

由於分母效應，有限合夥人正在考慮他們的投資組合。他們考慮投資組合再平衡。他們考慮出售部分投資組合。這通常是一個領域，在某種程度上，有限合夥人正在考慮出售他們的部分私募股權敞口，這是一個我們顯然可以作為我們的二級業務平台而受益匪淺的領域。

At the same time, it's broader than that. I think the liquidity needs in the markets are increasing. Also, private equity managers, GPs do see the market changing. Their exit opportunities generally are becoming narrower, which actually is a positive support for the significant trends like continuation vehicles, in which we play a very market-leading role. So whether you look at the GP side of the market or the LP side of the market with our secondary and portfolio financing platform where we have market-leading positions, we think we can benefit.

同時，它比這更廣泛。我認為市場的流動性需求正在增加。此外，私募股權經理、普通合夥人確實看到了市場的變化。他們的退出機會普遍變窄，這實際上是對延續車輛等重大趨勢的積極支持，我們在其中發揮著非常市場領先的作用。因此，無論您是通過我們擁有市場領先地位的二級和投資組合融資平台來觀察市場的 GP 端還是 LP 端，我們都認為我們可以從中受益。

And Patrick, so I'll just add on really briefly. I mean Ruulke is not going to trump in her own great performance. But the performance in our Solutions business has been really strong. And so once the times for those products to -- come back to market, someone really good about how they'll be positioned. And so very optimistic about the future, and this has been a really good story for us. The growth really since 2019 has been very strong in this business, and we've taken it from almost nothing to a really interesting story and one that we remain really optimistic about going forward.

還有帕特里克，所以我只是簡單地補充一下。我的意思是 Ruulke 不會在她自己的出色表現中勝出。但我們解決方案業務的表現非常強勁。因此，一旦這些產品回到市場，就會有人非常了解它們的定位。對未來非常樂觀，這對我們來說是一個非常好的故事。自 2019 年以來，這項業務的增長真的非常強勁，我們已經把它從幾乎沒有變成了一個非常有趣的故事，我們對未來仍然非常樂觀。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Brian Mckenna from JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 JMP Securities 的 Brian Mckenna。

So I know the broader capital management strategy will likely be determined by the new CEO. But how are you thinking about the trajectory of the dividend into next year, particularly given the level of FRE growth in 2022 and what will likely be some incremental growth in 2023? And then related, just given where the stock is trading, how are you thinking about buybacks here?

所以我知道更廣泛的資本管理戰略可能會由新任首席執行官決定。但是，您如何看待明年的股息軌跡，特別是考慮到 2022 年的 FRE 增長水平以及 2023 年可能出現的一些增量增長？然後相關的是，考慮到股票的交易地點，你如何考慮這裡的回購？

Brian, it's Curt. Thanks for those good questions. So first, let me just remind everybody, we increased the dividend from $1 per share to $1.30 per share at the beginning of this year, 30% increase. We are very much focused on continuing to grow our business. We want our dividend to be sustainable, fixed. We wanted to move in one direction, up. It's something that the Board will consider typically at year-end in terms of how much and also in terms of viewing kind of our various capital needs and requirements to grow the business and also consider buybacks as you talked about. But look, we're thinking about just that in terms of how much to go up, but we expect us to think about that in that context of how to appropriately allocate capital.

布賴恩，這是柯特。謝謝你提出的好問題。首先，讓我提醒大家，我們在今年年初將股息從每股 1 美元增加到每股 1.30 美元，增加了 30%。我們非常專注於繼續發展我們的業務。我們希望我們的股息是可持續的、固定的。我們想朝一個方向移動，向上。這是董事會通常會在年底考慮的事情，包括多少以及我們對發展業務的各種資本需求和要求的看法，以及您談到的回購。但是看，我們正在考慮上漲多少，但我們希望我們在如何適當分配資本的背景下考慮這一點。

From a buyback perspective, look, there's a good opportunity here. We actually think that we'll continue to manage our dilution from equity grants. And as we think about balancing those buybacks with other capital needs, we're going to lean into growth. But clearly, the attractive price of the stock right now really raises the bar in terms of how we think about acquisitions and the other external uses of capital to grow the business.

從回購的角度來看，這裡有一個很好的機會。我們實際上認為我們將繼續管理股權贈款的稀釋。當我們考慮平衡這些回購與其他資本需求時，我們將傾向於增長。但很明顯，目前股票的誘人價格確實提高了我們如何考慮收購和其他外部資本用途以發展業務的標準。

But make no doubt about it. We're focused on shareholder value, growing shareholder value, and you point out a couple of the levers in the toolbox to do just that. So thank you for your question.

但不要懷疑它。我們專注於股東價值，不斷增長的股東價值，你指出了工具箱中的幾個槓桿來做到這一點。謝謝你的問題。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So I heard from you and heard from others about the pace is likely to slow. That goes for deployment, fundraising, monetization and kind of everything in this backdrop. Also heard it's going to take a while from you and others. So get it, the world is pretty disruptive. I'm curious on how you might attribute this slowing to. Is it the lack of available funding? Is it the absolute cost -- higher cost of funding that's producing these wide bid/ask and then maybe turn it into a potential positive? What are going to be the signs that you look for or we should look for to see that the environment's improving?

所以我從你和其他人那裡聽說，步伐可能會放慢。這適用於部署、籌款、貨幣化以及這種背景下的所有事情。還聽說你和其他人需要一段時間。所以明白了，這個世界非常具有破壞性。我很好奇您如何將這種放緩歸因於。是缺乏可用資金嗎？是絕對成本——更高的資金成本產生了這些廣泛的出價/要價，然後可能將其轉化為潛在的積極因素嗎？您正在尋找或我們應該尋找哪些跡象來證明環境正在改善？

Sure. This is Pete, and I'll take that question, just to give you the perspective from the private equity side of our business. I think it's certainly a combination of factors that leads to a slowdown in deal flow. First, I would say that the level of deployment in investment activity in 2021 was unusually high. So that was really a peak. So there's no doubt that we're going to come off that. The level of overall investment activity this year was more in line with our typical annual run rate for deployment and investing on the private equity side.

當然。我是皮特，我會回答這個問題，只是為了讓您從我們業務的私募股權方面的角度來看。我認為這肯定是導致交易流量放緩的多種因素的結合。首先，我想說 2021 年投資活動的部署水平異常高。所以那真的是一個高峰。所以毫無疑問，我們會擺脫它。今年的整體投資活動水平更符合我們在私募股權方面部署和投資的典型年度運行率。

Looking forward into 2023, I do expect the investment pace to slow a bit further, which is really 2 or 3 factors driving that. First, obviously, the increase in interest rates has an impact. But for all private equity buyers, the impact of that, you can assess. You know what the -- you can go out and get debt financing commitments. You know what the cost of it is. But because that cost is higher, prices come down a bit ultimately because we're going to require the same rates of return or higher rates of return in this environment. So prices to sellers will be lower.

展望 2023 年，我確實預計投資步伐會進一步放緩，這實際上是由 2 或 3 個因素推動的。首先，顯然，利率上升有影響。但對於所有私募股權買家，您可以評估其影響。你知道什麼——你可以出去獲得債務融資承諾。你知道它的成本是多少。但由於成本較高，價格最終會有所下降，因為在這種環境下我們將要求相同或更高的回報率。所以賣給賣家的價格會更低。

Because of that, you get less people coming to market to sell businesses right now because they know they're not going to get top-tick valuations given what the public markets have done in terms of trading off a bit and higher interest expense. So you've got less sellers willing to sell in that environment.

正因為如此，現在進入市場出售企業的人越來越少，因為他們知道，鑑於公開市場在犧牲一點點和更高的利息支出方面所做的事情，他們不會獲得最高估值。因此，在那種環境下願意出售的賣家較少。

And then the third and last factor I'd touch on is, of course, the uncertainty out there in the environment or certainly the expectation that the economy is going to slow. And because of that, buyers and sellers are less likely to agree on the price for a business today, which makes fewer transactions happen.

然後，我要提到的第三個也是最後一個因素當然是環境中的不確定性，或者當然是對經濟放緩的預期。正因為如此，如今買賣雙方不太可能就企業的價格達成一致，從而導致交易量減少。

But I don't want be overly negative. A lot of transactions are still happening, and we have invested a lot over the past quarter, and obviously, one of those deals we got debt-financed. And yes, the financing was more expensive, but deals are getting done. But I do expect across the market to see a slowdown on deployment in 2023.

但我不想過於消極。許多交易仍在進行中，我們在過去一個季度進行了大量投資，顯然，其中一筆交易是通過債務融資的。是的，融資成本更高，但交易正在完成。但我確實預計 2023 年整個市場的部署都會放緩。

Glenn, it's Mark here. On the credit side, I would say that we've got a different dynamic going in that we think the opportunity set is increasing, specifically in private credit, where the capital markets has effectively become less liquid, if you want to call it that. I wouldn't say it's eased up. And until really the banks get most of those commitments off the balance sheet, it's going to be a very good opportunity. And we see that as a very good opportunity not in the next 6 to 12 months. We think that will be, given the slowdown in the economy, a 12- to 24-month opportunity where the pace of employment can pick up over that period of time.

格倫，我是馬克。在信貸方面，我想說我們有一個不同的動態，我們認為機會正在增加，特別是在私人信貸方面，資本市場實際上已經變得不那麼流動了，如果你想這麼說的話。我不會說它有所緩解。在銀行真正從資產負債表上獲得大部分承諾之前，這將是一個非常好的機會。我們認為這是一個非常好的機會，不會在未來 6 到 12 個月內出現。鑑於經濟放緩，我們認為這將是一個 12 至 24 個月的機會，在此期間就業步伐可以加快。

I think when you look at the liquid book, we still have had good formation on the CLO side despite what's going on in the marketplace. And as we see liabilities adjust, which we expect they will, we'll see probably a more continued pace on that side as well. So I think for credit, we feel very good about the opportunity set and the funnel of opportunities that are coming down to us right now, and we're quite bullish on what we see.

我認為當你看流動性書時，儘管市場上發生了什麼，我們在 CLO 方面仍然有良好的形成。當我們看到負債調整時，我們預計它們會調整，我們也可能會看到這方面的步伐更加持續。因此，我認為值得讚揚的是，我們對現在降臨到我們身上的機會集和機會漏斗感覺非常好，我們非常看好我們所看到的。

Mark, I wonder if we could just follow up on that. A question I was going to ask was going to be on CLO performance was decent, okay, hung in there in the quarter. It's down a few percent, both U.S. and European for the last 12 months, which is a lot better than the public markets but still down. And I was curious, just does that kind of performance profile and then just the higher rate environment, how the typical CLO investor interpret that? And so I wonder if I could get a specific CLO formation thought process over the next year or 2.

馬克，我想知道我們是否可以跟進。我要問的一個問題是關於 CLO 性能的，好吧，在本季度掛在那裡。在過去的 12 個月裡，美國和歐洲都下跌了幾個百分點，這比公開市場好很多，但仍然下跌。我很好奇，只是那種業績概況，然後是更高的利率環境，典型的 CLO 投資者如何解釋？所以我想知道我是否可以在明年或兩年內獲得特定的 CLO 形成思維過程。

Yes. I think obviously 2 components of CLO formation is the asset level right now, which is very attractive, and that's where we form the liabilities as well. And I think the past 6 months, in particular, has been more challenging on the liability side, so the leverage that we put on those vehicles. And we're going through a period where that formation has been more challenged.

是的。我認為顯然 CLO 形成的兩個組成部分是目前的資產水平，這非常有吸引力，這也是我們形成負債的地方。而且我認為過去 6 個月在負債方面尤其具有挑戰性，因此我們對這些工具施加了槓桿作用。我們正在經歷一個陣型面臨更大挑戰的時期。

That being said, as Curt said, we've completed 7 CLOs this year to date, which would be more in line with the regular year for us. And so I think the challenge will be for managers just generally is that access to the liability side, which Carlyle given we're the world's largest CLO manager and one of the better performers and have positioned our portfolios quite well, we're able to attract those liabilities, in particular, the equity as well, and we commit to the equity ourselves off the balance sheet. So that does perpetuate the formation of CLOs for our business in particular.

話雖這麼說，正如 Curt 所說，我們今年迄今為止已經完成了 7 個 CLO，這對我們來說更符合常規年份。因此，我認為經理人面臨的挑戰通常是如何進入負債方，凱雷鑑於我們是世界上最大的 CLO 經理人和表現較好的人之一，並且已經很好地定位了我們的投資組合，我們能夠吸引這些負債，尤其是股權，我們承諾在資產負債表外對股權進行投資。因此，這確實使 CLO 的形成永久化，尤其是對我們的業務而言。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Chris Kotowski from Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Oppenheimer 的 Chris Kotowski。

Most of mine have been asked, but I noticed that on CP VIII, there is another couple of hundred million of commitments there. And I'm wondering, is the fundraising on that done? Or is there a chance to extend the fundraising into calendar 2023 so that LPs could use their next vintage year commitments to do come into that fund?

我的大部分內容都被問到了，但我注意到在 CP VIII 上，還有另外幾億的承諾。我想知道，籌款完成了嗎？或者是否有機會將籌款活動延長到 2023 年，以便有限合夥人可以利用下一個年份的承諾來投資該基金？

Thanks for the question. This is Pete. And yes, on CP VIII, we do intend to keep fundraising going into 2023. That was our intention all along. And so we will do that. And you're right. That will open up a number of investors, and a number of investors have come to us and said, "Please come back and see me in 2023. I have more allocation then." So we do intend to keep fundraising going in '23.

謝謝你的問題。這是皮特。是的，在 CP VIII 上，我們確實打算在 2023 年繼續籌款。這一直是我們的意圖。所以我們會這樣做。你是對的。那會開放一些投資者，一些投資者來找我們說，“請2023年回來看我，到時候我有更多的配置。”所以我們確實打算在 23 年繼續籌款。

Okay. And that will be with full catch-up fees and all that?

好的。那將包括全額補繳費等等？

Yes. I mean that's -- yes, according to the terms of the LP agreements, and that would be included.

是的。我的意思是——是的，根據 LP 協議的條款，這將被包括在內。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Gerry O'Hara from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Jefferies 的 Gerry O'Hara。

I was hoping maybe we could get a little bit of just an update around the Fortitude outlook and kind of how you're balancing what you see or where you see the opportunities for both organic or organic [versus] block transactions and what appears to be an increasingly competitive market but also more attractive one? So any comments or context would be helpful there.

我希望也許我們能得到一些關於 Fortitude 前景的更新，以及你如何平衡你所看到的，或者你在哪裡看到有機或有機 [vs] 大宗交易的機會，以及看起來是什麼一個競爭日益激烈但也更具吸引力的市場？因此，任何評論或背景信息都會對您有所幫助。

Gerry, it's Curt. I'll start with some numbers. And then Mark will provide some color around it.

格里，這是柯特。我將從一些數字開始。然後馬克會在它周圍塗上一些顏色。

So Fortitude is doing really well. Just as a reminder to everybody, there's about $45 billion of fee-earning AUM. There's also about $9 billion that they've invested directly into our funds. And maybe more importantly, they have over $4 billion of capital within Fortitude itself. And that's important because that's the capital that they can use to essentially double their business, which we think we can accomplish over the next couple of years.

所以 Fortitude 做得非常好。提醒大家，有大約 450 億美元的收費 AUM。他們還直接向我們的基金投資了大約 90 億美元。也許更重要的是，他們在 Fortitude 內部擁有超過 40 億美元的資本。這很重要，因為這是他們可以用來使業務實質上翻一番的資本，我們認為我們可以在未來幾年內實現這一目標。

And so we're optimistic in terms of kind of how they're doing, and both from -- and also just from an adjusted book value and from a return on equity perspective, that business is continuing to perform well.

因此，我們對他們的表現持樂觀態度，而且從調整後的賬面價值和股本回報率的角度來看，該業務繼續表現良好。

But Mark, I don't know if you have more color to add.

但是馬克，我不知道你是否有更多的顏色要添加。

Yes. The only thing I'd add, Curt, and this is Mark here, is that the macro backdrop and what affects with these transactions is that insurers are looking for ways to better manage their capital in their operations in a more efficient manner. And that hasn't changed. And in fact, this higher rate environment, all else being equal, has generally made it more attractive or more favorable for sellers to transact on these legacy blocks, which is what we traffic in from Fortitude's perspective.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，柯特，這裡是馬克，宏觀背景和對這些交易的影響是保險公司正在尋找方法，以更有效的方式更好地管理其運營中的資本。這並沒有改變。事實上，在其他條件相同的情況下，這種更高利率的環境通常使賣家在這些遺留區塊上進行交易更具吸引力或更有利，這就是我們從 Fortitude 的角度進行交易的內容。

So that pipeline that we see continues to be very strong. And the time line on these transactions is traditionally longer than a regular corporate M&A process, just given the complexity of these books. And we're involved in many processes right now, and we feel very positive about what we see in that regard. So we're quite comfortable with how Fortitude is going.

因此，我們看到的管道仍然非常強大。考慮到這些賬簿的複雜性，這些交易的時間傳統上比常規的公司併購流程要長。我們現在參與了很多流程，我們對我們在這方面看到的情況感到非常積極。因此，我們對 Fortitude 的進展情況感到非常滿意。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Adam Beatty from UBS.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自瑞銀的 Adam Beatty。

Just wanted to follow up on capital management. I appreciate Curt's comments earlier about wanting to maintain a steady dividend and kind of ratcheted up year after year. My understanding is that that's primarily -- that process has been primarily based around FRE in the past. I just wanted to ask about the potential for incorporating realized carry in the level of the dividend. You've managed to maintain that fairly well this year, indicated that maybe averaging $1 billion or so in the out years. So it seems like something that might be able to be incorporating capital distribution to investors, but wanted to get your thoughts on that.

只是想跟進資金管理。我很欣賞 Curt 早些時候關於希望保持穩定的股息並且年復一年地增加股息的評論。我的理解是，這主要是 - 該流程過去主要基於 FRE。我只是想問一下將已實現套利納入股息水平的可能性。今年你已經成功地保持了相當不錯的水平，表明未來幾年平均收入可能在 10 億美元左右。因此，這似乎可以將資本分配納入投資者的行列，但希望了解您的想法。

Adam, it's Curt. Thanks for that. And thanks for recognizing the strength really of our accrued carry and the carry generation that we've had, $4.1 billion of net accrued share on the balance sheet, roughly $11 per share in future earnings power. Look, we think that that's going to come out. Capital markets permitting, roughly $1 billion per year. But just as Pete noted, we'll see some slowdown. So next year could be a little lighter than that.

亞當，這是柯特。感謝那。感謝您認識到我們應計利差和利差產生的真正實力，資產負債表上的淨應計份額為 41 億美元，未來盈利能力約為每股 11 美元。看，我們認為那會出來。如果資本市場允許，每年大約 10 億美元。但正如皮特指出的那樣，我們會看到一些放緩。所以明年可能會比這輕一點。

Our approach on the dividend, however, really is one of making it a fixed dividend that we -- that is fully sustainable that we can grow. And we think using really kind of recurring revenues, primarily FRE, is the way to look at that, but we also have to balance it amongst all of the capital needs that we see, how to invest in growth, how to consider buybacks and managing dilution and also how to return capital to shareholders. And look, there's a variety of levers, as I said before, to grow shareholder value, and that's what we want to do.

然而，我們對股息的處理方法實際上是讓它成為我們可以增長的完全可持續的固定股息之一。我們認為使用真正的經常性收入，主要是 FRE，是看待這個問題的方式，但我們也必須在我們看到的所有資本需求、如何投資於增長、如何考慮回購和管理之間取得平衡稀釋以及如何向股東返還資本。看，正如我之前所說，有多種槓桿可以增加股東價值，這就是我們想要做的。

Our next question comment comes from the line of Mike Brown from KBW.

我們的下一個問題評論來自 KBW 的 Mike Brown。

So I appreciate the updated FRE expectations for 2022. Any early read on expectations for next year or any color on how we should think about that FRE growth and the FRE margin as we think about 2023?

因此，我很欣賞更新後的 2022 年 FRE 預期。任何關於明年預期的早期閱讀或關於我們應該如何考慮 FRE 增長和我們考慮 2023 年的 FRE 利潤率的任何顏色？

Mike, it's Curt. Thanks for the question. Look, just as consistent with our past practice, we'll provide more granular detail on '23 at the beginning of '23 after we completed all of our year-end processes and the like.

邁克，這是柯特。謝謝你的問題。看，就像我們過去的做法一樣，在我們完成所有年終流程等之後，我們將在 23 年初提供有關 23 的更詳細的細節。

But let me just reiterate, this year, we've grown FRE 50%. Past decade, it's a 15% CAGR. So we're focused on it. You heard Bill say, we remain committed to growing FRE. We think our diversified business model helps us do that. We're very focused on efficiently and effectively running the business. We'll continue to make investments, whether that's in growing our distribution platform or in technology to help us operate more efficiently. But we're going to make sure that we're continuing to focus on how we grow FRE in the aggregate because that matters more to me than just margin, but margin is also important as a tool to grow more FRE dollars. And I'm confident that we'll continue to -- our FRE growth trend as we go forward.

但讓我重申一下，今年，我們的 FRE 增長了 50%。過去十年，複合年增長率為 15%。所以我們專注於它。你聽到比爾說，我們仍然致力於發展 FRE。我們認為我們多元化的商業模式有助於我們做到這一點。我們非常專注於高效和有效地運營業務。我們將繼續進行投資，無論是在發展我們的分銷平台還是在技術方面，以幫助我們更有效地運營。但我們將確保我們繼續關注我們如何在總體上增加 FRE，因為這對我來說不僅僅是保證金更重要，但保證金作為增加更多 FRE 美元的工具也很重要。而且我相信我們將繼續 - 我們前進的 FRE 增長趨勢。

Our next question comment comes from the line of Alexander Blostein from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題評論來自高盛的 Alexander Blostein。

This is Ryan Bailey on behalf of Alex and maybe piggybacking off the prior question a little bit. So if we come back to private equity fundraising, obviously, and you've reiterated this, it's a challenged environment for the industry. You have a number of flagships in the market over the next 12 months, and you've had fairly strong realizations year-to-date out of private equity. With the delayed fundraising, do you still expect management fees to be able to grow in '23 versus '22 within private equity?

我是代表 Alex 的 Ryan Bailey，可能會順便回答一下之前的問題。因此，如果我們回到私募股權融資，很明顯，你已經重申了這一點，這對行業來說是一個充滿挑戰的環境。在接下來的 12 個月裡，您在市場上擁有許多旗艦產品，而且今年迄今為止您已經從私募股權中獲得了相當強勁的收益。隨著籌款的延遲，您是否仍預計私募股權在 23 年和 22 年的管理費用能夠增長？

So Ryan, it's Curt here. Let me take that. So we're focused on a lot of things to grow the business. I'm going to give you more granular detail on '23 next year. We've had very nice top line growth this year in private equity. Any given quarter, and really in a given year, is always tough to call exactly, but we're focused on long-term trends, and what I really like here in private equity is we have a number of things to focus on: Natural Resources, energy, our Real Estate business, our technology initiatives, our European technology platform, very strong. So there's a number of things for growth in that business, and we're focused on growing FRE on all of our big businesses in the aggregate and believe we can do that in '23 as well. I'll give you more detail next year.

瑞安，我是柯特。讓我拿那個。所以我們專注於很多事情來發展業務。我將在明年的 23 年為您提供更詳細的信息。今年我們在私募股權領域的收入增長非常好。任何給定的季度，實際上在給定的年份，總是很難準確預測，但我們關注長期趨勢，我在私募股權領域真正喜歡的是我們有很多事情需要關注：自然資源、能源、我們的房地產業務、我們的技術舉措、我們的歐洲技術平台，非常強大。因此，該業務有很多增長點，我們專注於總體上在我們所有的大業務中增長 FRE，並相信我們也可以在 23 年做到這一點。明年我會給你更多的細節。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Michael Cyprys from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Cyprys。

This is [Truman] standing in for Mike. My question is more about how you think about the way the market's valuation of carry or lack thereof. How -- what do you think the market is missing around how -- the way they think about carrying? And as an addendum to that, how should I be thinking about Carlyle's ability to realize the over $4 billion of accrued carry you have on the balance sheet right now?

這是 [杜魯門] 代表邁克。我的問題更多是關於你如何看待市場對利差或缺乏利差的估值方式。如何 - 你認為市場缺少什麼 - 他們如何看待攜帶的方式？作為補充，我應該如何看待凱雷實現資產負債表上超過 40 億美元應計收益的能力？

I love your question. The mystery around valuation of carry, look, I think it's been underappreciated for a long, long time. This is a battle that we have bought for years in terms of trying to educate people. I'll just reiterate, look, we had over $4 billion in the accrued carry on our balance sheet, underpinned by $136 billion of remaining fair value in our funds. This has been a tough and challenging market on a lot of fronts. But even in all of that, our funds have appreciated 10% year-to-date, which is really good.

我喜歡你的問題。關於進位估值的謎團，看，我認為它被低估了很長很長時間。多年來，我們一直在努力教育人們，這是一場戰鬥。我只是重申一下，看，我們的資產負債表上有超過 40 億美元的應計收益，這是由我們基金中 1360 億美元的剩餘公允價值支撐的。在很多方面，這是一個艱難而充滿挑戰的市場。但即便如此，我們的基金今年迄今已升值 10%，這確實不錯。

I mean if you think about how Pete and Mark and Ruulke and all other teams have built their funds, portfolio construction, as Bill said in his opening remarks, really matters. All 3 have done it really in ways that are key to there. I think it just really positions us well. There's no -- I don't have the magic perfect crystal ball on the future, and I wish I had better. But I'm feeling really good about how we continue to drive carry.

我的意思是，如果你想想皮特、馬克和魯爾克以及所有其他團隊是如何建立他們的基金的，投資組合的構建，正如比爾在開場白中所說的那樣，真的很重要。所有 3 人都以關鍵的方式真正做到了這一點。我認為它確實讓我們處於有利位置。沒有——我沒有關於未來的神奇完美水晶球，我希望我能有更好的。但我對我們如何繼續推動進位感到非常滿意。

You saw almost $400 million of realizations this quarter. It will probably slow a little bit here or there, but overall, really strong even with the difficult backdrop. So I fully agree with you that why this is undervalued. It's $11 of value in terms of future earnings, and it continues to perform. So thanks for your question.

本季度您看到了近 4 億美元的變現。它可能會在這里或那裡放慢一點，但總的來說，即使在困難的背景下也非常強勁。所以我完全同意你為什麼這被低估了。就未來收益而言，它的價值為 11 美元，而且它會繼續表現。所以謝謝你的問題。

Of course. And if I could just sneak in a quick follow-up. Assuming this undervaluation carries on for an extended period of time, what levers (inaudible) have to, I guess, either better align the incentives of the carry perhaps with those who may place a higher value on it or in terms of kind of returning that back to shareholders in some way, some shape or form?

當然。如果我能偷偷跟進一下。假設這種低估持續了很長一段時間，我想，什麼槓桿（聽不清）必須更好地使套利的激勵與那些可能對其賦予更高價值的人保持一致，或者在某種程度上回報以某種方式、某種形式或形式回報股東？

Look, alignment matters in terms of compensation strategies but also in terms of being able to drive continued growth in our business. And so while we continue to embrace a balance sheet-light model, being able to use capital that has generally been generated from carry production to be able to reinvest that into fee-related earnings businesses to grow, just like we did with Fortitude and CBAM earlier this year, we'll continue to look for those opportunities.

看，一致性在薪酬策略方面很重要，但在能夠推動我們業務的持續增長方面也很重要。因此，在我們繼續採用輕資產負債表模式的同時，能夠利用通常從套利生產中產生的資本，將其重新投資到與費用相關的盈利業務中，以實現增長，就像我們對 Fortitude 和 CBAM 所做的那樣今年早些時候，我們將繼續尋找這些機會。

Obviously, today, the bar for how we look at those things is higher than before, but we're going to continue to aggressively use our balance sheet to grow but also balancing that with growing dividends, buying back stock and other tools to grow the firm. But carry is a key component of generating that capital to enable us to do all of those things.

顯然，今天，我們看待這些事情的門檻比以前更高，但我們將繼續積極利用我們的資產負債表來實現增長，同時也會通過增加股息、回購股票和其他工具來平衡增長公司。但攜帶是產生資本的關鍵組成部分，使我們能夠做所有這些事情。

Our next question or comment is a follow-up from Mr. Patrick Davitt from Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt 先生的跟進。

Could you give us some perspective on the underlying corporate PE portfolio operating trends kind of from quarter-to-quarter this year, revenue, EBITDA growth, margin vis-à-vis inflation?

您能否就今年各季度的基本企業 PE 投資組合運營趨勢、收入、EBITDA 增長、利潤率與通貨膨脹率等問題給我們一些看法？

Patrick, it's Curt. I presume you're asking about the underlying portfolio companies. And if that's the question, then I'll have -- Pete will chime in here on that.

帕特里克，這是柯特。我猜你問的是基礎投資組合公司。如果這就是問題所在，那麼我將 - Pete 會插話。

Yes. That's what I'm asking you.

是的。這就是我要問你的。

Sure. Across the Corporate Private Equity portfolio, the companies have continued to perform very strongly. Revenue growth overall has been in the low double digits across that portfolio as many companies are passing on price increases, but also demand has remained really strong in most areas of the economy so far.

當然。在企業私募股權投資組合中，這些公司繼續表現強勁。由於許多公司正在轉嫁價格上漲，該投資組合的整體收入增長一直處於低兩位數，但迄今為止，大多數經濟領域的需求仍然非常強勁。

On margins, there's -- clearly, there is some cost pressure. So on margins, margins are growing in the mid-single digits, so roughly half the level of revenue growth is the level of earnings growth that we're seeing. So businesses continue to perform well. We continue to get earnings growth, and that's what's supporting the valuations in the portfolio is that earnings growth that we're seeing across the portfolio. That's Corporate Private Equity.

在利潤率方面，很明顯，存在一些成本壓力。因此，在利潤率方面，利潤率以中個位數增長，因此收入增長水平的大約一半是我們所看到的盈利增長水平。因此，企業繼續表現良好。我們繼續獲得收益增長，而支持投資組合估值的是我們在整個投資組合中看到的收益增長。這就是企業私募股權。

And I'd say overall across Natural Resources and infrastructure, the results have been even better with what's happened with energy prices. And that part of the portfolio has performed even stronger.

我想說的是，在整個自然資源和基礎設施領域，隨著能源價格的變化，結果甚至更好。而這部分投資組合的表現更為強勁。

And that's LTM, I think, the revenue and EBITDA?

這就是 LTM，我認為，收入和 EBITDA？

Sorry, can you repeat that, Patrick?

抱歉，帕特里克，你能再重複一遍嗎？

I'm sorry, was that a question?

對不起，這是一個問題嗎？

That's LTM, I assume, the revenue and EBITDA growth? Or is that the 3Q...

那是 LTM，我假設，收入和 EBITDA 增長？或者是3Q...

That is year-to-date. So that's year-to-date results.

那是年初至今。這就是年初至今的結果。

I'm showing no additional questions in the queue at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我目前沒有在隊列中顯示其他問題。我想將會議轉回管理層聽取任何閉幕詞。

Thank you all for your time this morning with us. And should you have any follow-up questions, feel free to reach out to Investor Relations at any point. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking with you again on next quarter's call.

感謝大家今天早上抽出時間與我們一起。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部。否則，我們期待在下個季度的電話會議上再次與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day. Speakers, stand by.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程序到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。每個人，祝你有美好的一天。喇叭，待命。