Carlyle Group Inc (CG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Carlyle Group Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到凱雷集團 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議交給您今天的發言人，投資者關係主管丹尼爾哈里斯。請繼續。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Interim Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder, Bill Conway; and our Chief Financial Officer, Curt Buser. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website. We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from, or as a substitute for, measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We have provided reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available.

謝謝你，凱文。早上好，歡迎來到凱雷 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起打電話的是我們的臨時首席執行官兼聯合創始人 Bill Conway；以及我們的首席財務官 Curt Buser。此電話會議正在進行網絡直播，重播將在我們的網站上提供。我們將在今天的電話會議中提及某些非 GAAP 財務措施。這些措施不應孤立於或替代根據公認會計原則編制的措施。我們已在合理可用的範圍內在我們的收益發布中向 GAAP 提供了這些措施的對賬。

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time.

今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述都不能保證未來的表現，不應過分依賴它們。這些陳述基於當前的管理層預期，並涉及固有的風險和不確定性，包括我們在 10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分中確定的風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與所示結果存在重大差異。凱雷不承擔隨時更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is also available on our Investor Relations website. I'm going to begin with a quick discussion of our results, and then hand the call over to Bill. For the fourth quarter, we generated $202 million in fee-related earnings and $433 million in distributable earnings or $1.01 per share. Fee-related earnings for the full year 2022 of $834 million increased 40% compared to 2021 and FRE margin expanded to 37% from 33% last year. Strong organic growth and several strategic transactions combined to deliver another year of substantial growth.

今天上午早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和一份詳細的收益報告，也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。我將首先快速討論我們的結果，然後將電話轉交給比爾。第四季度，我們產生了 2.02 億美元的費用相關收益和 4.33 億美元的可分配收益或每股 1.01 美元。與 2021 年相比，2022 年全年與費用相關的收入為 8.34 億美元，增長 40%，FRE 利潤率從去年的 33% 擴大到 37%。強勁的有機增長和幾項戰略交易相結合，實現了又一年的大幅增長。

We generated $1.9 billion in distributable earnings in 2022 or $4.34 per share with a good balance of earnings from FRE, net realized performance revenue and realized investment income. We entered 2023 in a strong capital position. We have $1.4 billion in cash, $2.4 billion in firm investments and $4 billion of net accrued carry on our balance sheet, in total, over $20 per share. We have nothing drawn against our $1 billion revolver, and our debt ratings from both S&P and Fitch improved to A minus ratings. The strength of our balance sheet gives us confidence that we can continue to pursue growth strategies, both organic and inorganic, to help continue to deliver additional FRE growth.

我們在 2022 年產生了 19 億美元的可分配收益或每股 4.34 美元，FRE 收益、已實現業績淨收入和已實現投資收益之間取得了良好的平衡。我們以強大的資本狀況進入 2023 年。我們的資產負債表上有 14 億美元的現金、24 億美元的公司投資和 40 億美元的應計淨收益，總計超過每股 20 美元。我們沒有對我們的 10 億美元左輪手槍進行任何提款，標準普爾和惠譽對我們的債務評級均提高至 A 負評級。我們資產負債表的實力讓我們相信我們可以繼續追求有機和無機的增長戰略，以幫助繼續實現額外的 FRE 增長。

We delivered a quarterly dividend of $0.325 per common share. The combination of our balance sheet strength and sustainable growth in FRE allowed our Board of Directors to approve another increase in our fixed dividend to $1.40 per share per year, an increase of 8% year-over-year and up 40% over the past 2 years. This higher dividend will begin with Q1.

我們派發了每股普通股 0.325 美元的季度股息。我們的資產負債表實力和 FRE 的可持續增長相結合，使我們的董事會能夠批准將我們的固定股息再次增加到每年每股 1.40 美元，同比增長 8%，比過去 2 年增長 40%年。這種更高的股息將從第一季度開始。

And with that, let me turn the call over to our Interim Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder, Bill Conway.

說到這裡，讓我把電話轉給我們的臨時首席執行官兼聯合創始人 Bill Conway。

Thank you, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am pleased to be on the call to discuss Carlyle's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results. As you've heard, Carlyle delivered strong results to our stakeholders despite the challenging market environment. The firm is operating well, and I have tremendous confidence in our ability to capture investment opportunities and to continue to grow our platform in 2023.

謝謝你，丹。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我很高興能在電話中討論凱雷的第四季度和全年業績。正如您所知，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，凱雷仍為我們的利益相關者帶來了強勁的業績。該公司運營良好，我對我們抓住投資機會並在 2023 年繼續發展我們的平台的能力充滿信心。

I want to talk about 3 topics this morning: the outcome of our CEO selection, the strong financial performance of Carlyle in 2022 and some general thoughts on our outlook. First, we are incredibly pleased that Harvey Schwartz will join Carlyle as the new CEO on February 15. As you all know, this was an incredibly important decision for Carlyle. And the search committee of the Board, on which I serve, drove a robust and exhaustive search for a new CEO. Following a thorough and competitive process, Harvey was unanimously chosen by the Board as the right leader to move Carlyle forward in its next phase of growth.

今天上午我想談三個話題：我們的 CEO 選拔結果、凱雷 2022 年強勁的財務表現以及對我們前景的一些總體看法。首先，我們非常高興 Harvey Schwartz 將於 2 月 15 日加入凱雷，成為新任首席執行官。眾所周知，這對凱雷來說是一個極其重要的決定。我所在的董事會遴選委員會推動了對新 CEO 的強有力和詳盡的尋找。經過全面且競爭激烈的過程，哈維被董事會一致選為正確的領導者，以推動凱雷進入下一階段的發展。

Harvey is a widely respected business builder with significant leadership experience in a high-performing, highly competitive global financial institution. He is a seasoned operator with a proven record of leading and developing a wide range of businesses and a demonstrated ability to invest in and develop the talent and organizational structure to manage and support these businesses.

Harvey 是一位廣受尊敬的業務建設者，在一家業績出色、競爭激烈的全球金融機構中擁有豐富的領導經驗。他是一位經驗豐富的運營商，在領導和發展廣泛的業務方面有著良好的記錄，並展示了投資和發展人才和組織結構以管理和支持這些業務的能力。

As we look to the future, there is tremendous opportunity to grow and to continue to perform Carlyle, to transform Carlyle and deliver sustainable results over the long term. Harvey brings the experience and skill set to fully capture this opportunity.

展望未來，我們有巨大的機會來發展和繼續履行凱雷的職責，轉變凱雷並實現長期可持續的成果。 Harvey 帶來了充分把握這一機會的經驗和技能。

As CEO, he will set and execute a strategy that advances and accelerates the diversification plan the firm has successfully pursued as well as identify new investment opportunities to further scale the business, drive performance and deliver growth. I am confident in Harvey's leadership and look forward to introducing him to you in the very near future.

作為首席執行官，他將製定並執行一項戰略，以推進和加速公司已成功實施的多元化計劃，並確定新的投資機會以進一步擴大業務規模、推動績效和實現增長。我對哈維的領導能力充滿信心，並期待在不久的將來向您介紹他。

Moving on, I'd like to discuss our 2022 results. Curt will dive into our results in more detail, but I wanted to touch on a few notable points. As Dan mentioned, we generated record fee-related earnings of $834 million in 2022, an increase of 40% over 2021, which demonstrates that our strategic focus to grow FRE and diversify our earnings mix is paying off, and we earned $1.9 billion in distributable earnings despite a volatile exit environment.

繼續，我想討論我們 2022 年的結果。 Curt 將更詳細地探討我們的結果，但我想談談幾個值得注意的點。正如 Dan 所提到的，我們在 2022 年產生了創紀錄的 8.34 億美元的費用相關收益，比 2021 年增長了 40%，這表明我們發展 FRE 和多元化收益組合的戰略重點正在取得回報，我們獲得了 19 億美元的可分配收益儘管退出環境動盪，但仍能保持收益。

We delivered investment returns that were attractive across our portfolio. Our aggregate carry fund portfolio appreciated 11% in the year, while the public markets were down about 20%. And as I said last quarter, portfolio construction and risk management matter, and we believe that this is the key differentiator that positions our investment teams to deliver superior relative performance across market cycles.

我們在整個投資組合中實現了具有吸引力的投資回報。我們的總套利基金投資組合在這一年中上漲了 11%，而公開市場下跌了約 20%。正如我上個季度所說，投資組合構建和風險管理很重要，我們相信這是使我們的投資團隊能夠在整個市場週期中提供卓越相對績效的關鍵差異化因素。

Turning to our outlook. As we enter 2023, we are confident in the strong foundation of the firm and believe that we are well positioned to capture new growth opportunities, and Harvey will focus on building off this strong foundation. At its core, our business involves raising money and investing money and then making money that we've invested worth more.

轉向我們的前景。隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們對公司的堅實基礎充滿信心，並相信我們已做好準備抓住新的增長機會，Harvey 將專注於建立這一堅實的基礎。從本質上講，我們的業務涉及籌集資金和投資資金，然後讓我們投資的錢變得更值錢。

Let me begin with some thoughts on fundraising. No doubt the backdrop for raising new capital remains challenging with headwinds more pronounced in certain areas than others. However, today's environment is different from what we faced entering 2022. Early last year, an unexpected and sharp change in market sentiment had investors on their back foot for most of the year. With rapidly deteriorating public equity and debt prices, the denominator effect greatly reduced LP interest and ability to make new commitments.

讓我先談談關於籌款的一些想法。毫無疑問，籌集新資本的背景仍然充滿挑戰，某些領域的逆風比其他領域更為明顯。然而，今天的環境與我們進入 2022 年所面臨的環境不同。去年初，市場情緒的意外和急劇變化讓投資者在一年中的大部分時間都處於不利地位。隨著公共股票和債務價格的迅速惡化，分母效應大大降低了 LP 的興趣和做出新承諾的能力。

Over the past few months, at least until last week, we've seen a gradual reduction in market volatility. Investors still believe that they have a better handle on the magnitude of further interest rate changes. In addition, Carlyle's longstanding relationships with the largest and most sophisticated investors around the globe is a benefit, and we continue to see strong demand for many of our investment strategies across our 3 global segments.

在過去幾個月裡，至少直到上週，我們已經看到市場波動逐漸減少。投資者仍然認為，他們可以更好地應對利率進一步變化的幅度。此外，凱雷與全球最大、最老練的投資者的長期關係是一個好處，我們繼續看到對我們 3 個全球部門的許多投資策略的強勁需求。

Our platform has continued to diversify, and it's important to note that roughly 2/3 of our fundraising last year came from areas such as Global Credit, Global Investment Solutions, natural resources and real estate. While corporate private equity may continue to face headwinds, we see significant capital raising opportunities across our platform. We will have more strategies raising capital in 2023 than we did in 2022, including our next vintage flagship funds and credit opportunities, secondaries, co-investments and buyout funds across the globe.

我們的平台繼續多元化，值得注意的是，去年我們籌款的大約 2/3 來自全球信貸、全球投資解決方案、自然資源和房地產等領域。儘管企業私募股權可能繼續面臨不利因素，但我們在整個平台上看到了巨大的融資機會。與 2022 年相比，我們在 2023 年將有更多的融資策略，包括我們下一個老式旗艦基金和信貸機會、二級市場、共同投資和全球收購基金。

We anticipate that our overall dollar volume of fundraising in 2023 will be higher than the $30 billion we raised in 2022. Over the past few months, I've been around the world speaking with our teams and investors and feel confident in the power of our platform. Our investors value our partnership, our global reach and our ability to construct diverse portfolios that perform across market cycles.

我們預計 2023 年籌資總額將高於 2022 年籌集的 300 億美元。在過去的幾個月裡，我一直在世界各地與我們的團隊和投資者交談，並對我們的力量充滿信心平台。我們的投資者重視我們的合作夥伴關係、我們的全球影響力以及我們構建跨市場週期的多樣化投資組合的能力。

Now that Harvey is here, it has also taken away some uncertainty about our path forward as a firm, and we think that will also have a positive impact on fundraising. Regarding capital development, today's market conditions create new opportunities to invest capital across all of our global businesses. Recently, there's been a wider-than-average spread in pricing expectations between buyers and sellers, which has impacted capital development. The spread is across most asset classes that has been more pronounced in private equity than other strategies, and we are -- but we are starting to see evidence of this spread narrowing. As debt and equity capital markets continue to reopen, the pace of deal activity is poised to accelerate.

現在 Harvey 在這裡，它也消除了我們作為一家公司前進道路上的一些不確定性，我們認為這也會對籌款產生積極影響。在資本開發方面，當今的市場狀況為我們所有全球業務的資本投資創造了新的機會。最近，買家和賣家之間的定價預期差距大於平均水平，這影響了資本開發。大多數資產類別的利差在私募股權中比其他策略更為明顯，我們是——但我們開始看到這種利差縮小的證據。隨著債務和股權資本市場繼續重新開放，交易活動的步伐有望加快。

We deployed a record $35 billion in capital in 2022 with a good balance across equity, credit and solution strategies. And we are well positioned for further investment with $72 billion in dry powder to capitalize on an improving environment. We expect to find ample opportunities to make new investments in 2023 and beyond on behalf of our fund investors. In addition, the improving deal environment presents an opportunity for our global credit business to provide unique capital solutions to the marketplace. In 2022, we underwrote $3.9 billion of new loan activity in our direct lending strategy, and our CLO team issued 9 new CLOs while also trading $30 billion across their portfolios to better position the CLOs for the expected economic environment.

我們在 2022 年部署了創紀錄的 350 億美元資本，在股權、信貸和解決方案戰略之間取得了良好的平衡。我們已準備好進一步投資 720 億美元的干火藥，以利用改善的環境。我們希望在 2023 年及以後代表我們的基金投資者找到充足的機會進行新的投資。此外，不斷改善的交易環境為我們的全球信貸業務提供了向市場提供獨特資本解決方案的機會。 2022 年，我們在直接貸款策略中承銷了 39 億美元的新貸款活動，我們的 CLO 團隊發行了 9 個新的 CLO，同時還在其投資組合中交易了 300 億美元，以更好地定位 CLO 以適應預期的經濟環境。

And as fund investors' need for liquidity persists, we are well positioned to capitalize on this need to our secondaries and co-investments business. Overall, 2022 was a solid year across most financial metrics for Carlyle, and we entered 2023 with strength and momentum. With Harvey as our new CEO alongside our strong leadership team, Carlyle is well positioned and we're confident that he will build on this momentum to bolster the firm's position and create value for all our investors and shareholders.

由於基金投資者對流動性的需求持續存在，我們已做好充分準備，將這種需求用於我們的二級市場和共同投資業務。總體而言，2022 年對於凱雷的大多數財務指標來說都是穩健的一年，我們以實力和勢頭進入了 2023 年。隨著 Harvey 成為我們的新任首席執行官以及我們強大的領導團隊，Carlyle 處於有利地位，我們相信他將在此勢頭的基礎上鞏固公司的地位並為我們所有的投資者和股東創造價值。

With that, let me hand the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Curt Buser, to discuss our financial results in more detail.

有了這個，讓我將電話轉交給我們的首席財務官 Curt Buser，以更詳細地討論我們的財務業績。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by reiterating many things Bill mentioned that emphasize the strong position Carlyle finds itself in as we begin this year. We believe our investment portfolios are in good shape and are well positioned to weather economic volatility. And we expect to deliver long-term attractive performance for all of our stakeholders.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。我想首先重申比爾提到的許多事情，這些事情強調了凱雷在我們今年開始時所處的強勢地位。我們相信我們的投資組合狀況良好，能夠很好地抵禦經濟波動。我們希望為我們所有的利益相關者提供長期有吸引力的績效。

We produced a robust $4.34 per share in distributable earnings in 2022, displaying the significant cash earnings power of our firm. We've now earned over $9 in DE per share in just the past 2 years. We remain focused on growing fee-related earnings, and it grew by 40% in 2022. And over the past 5 years, our FRE CAGR has been a robust 34%. Our overall earnings mix continues to diversify as we have grown our credit, insurance, capital markets and solutions capabilities. Our strong growth in fee-related earnings is not driven by a single fund or strategy. Rather, our performance led us to driving broad-based top line fee growth across our global platform.

我們在 2022 年產生了強勁的每股 4.34 美元的可分配收益，顯示了我們公司強大的現金盈利能力。在過去的兩年裡，我們現在每股收益超過 9 美元。我們仍然專注於增加與費用相關的收入，它在 2022 年增長了 40%。在過去 5 年中，我們的 FRE CAGR 一直保持強勁的 34%。隨著我們的信貸、保險、資本市場和解決方案能力的增強，我們的整體收益組合繼續多樣化。我們收費相關收入的強勁增長並非由單一基金或策略推動。相反，我們的表現使我們在全球平台上推動了廣泛的收入增長。

Top line fee revenue growth was 25% in 2022 and was driven by the following: first, raising capital for and growing our traditional high-performing investment strategies across each segment -- each of our 3 global segments. Second, organically building out new fee-generating businesses like opportunistic credit, insurance, capital markets and infrastructure credit, to name just a few, each of which added significantly to our growing fee revenue pool throughout the year. And third, we have been actively adding new inorganic streams of earnings, such as our transactions to further scale our CLO business with CBAM, and our advisory agreement with Fortitude.

2022 年收入增長 25%，受以下因素推動：首先，為每個細分市場（我們的 3 個全球細分市場中的每一個）籌集資金並發展我們傳統的高性能投資策略。其次，有機地建立新的產生費用的業務，例如機會主義信貸、保險、資本市場和基礎設施信貸，僅舉幾例，每一項都大大增加了我們全年不斷增長的費用收入池。第三，我們一直在積極增加新的無機收入來源，例如我們與 CBAM 進一步擴大 CLO 業務的交易，以及我們與 Fortitude 的諮詢協議。

These efforts have scaled our platform and helped drop more of our top line revenues to the bottom line as we expanded our full year FRE margin to 37% in 2022, an increase of nearly 400 basis points compared to 2021. FRE margin has more than doubled over the past 5 years. We have done this while concurrently investing in new product development and enhanced distribution capabilities, notably across the private wealth channel. We expect to continue to grow FRE in 2023. FRE in the first quarter will likely be similar to Q4 of 2022 before increasing in the second half of the year. In addition, we remain highly confident in our ability to grow FRE well into the double-digit range over the mid- to longer term, in line or better than the market trends across the private capital industry.

隨著我們在 2022 年將全年 FRE 利潤率擴大到 37%，與 2021 年相比增加了近 400 個基點，這些努力擴大了我們的平台規模，並幫助我們將更多的收入降至利潤。FRE 利潤率翻了一番多在過去的 5 年裡。我們這樣做的同時，還投資於新產品開發和增強分銷能力，尤其是在私人財富渠道。我們預計 2023 年 FRE 將繼續增長。第一季度的 FRE 可能會與 2022 年第四季度相似，然後在下半年增加。此外，我們對我們在中長期內將 FRE 增長到兩位數的能力充滿信心，符合或優於整個私人資本行業的市場趨勢。

Consistent growth in fee-related earnings is supported by the attractive investment returns we produce for our fund investors. Our investment teams again delivered appreciation that outperformed public benchmarks even with increasingly higher discount and cap rate assumptions in our valuation models and elevated concerns about global recession. While only 6% of our carry fund portfolio was publicly traded at year-end, public market comparables are an important input to our valuation methodology and generally were a downward driver of valuations across our private assets during the year.

我們為基金投資者創造的有吸引力的投資回報支持了與費用相關的收益的持續增長。即使我們的估值模型中的貼現率和資本化率假設越來越高，以及對全球經濟衰退的擔憂加劇，我們的投資團隊再次表現優於公開基準。雖然我們的套利基金投資組合中只有 6% 在年底公開交易，但公開市場可比數據是我們估值方法的重要輸入，並且通常是年內我們私人資產估值的下行驅動因素。

Of course, the most important valuation driver of any investment is underlying asset level performance, which, in general, continued to reflect growth in revenues and earnings, though this growth generally slowed in the second half of 2022. Our strong performance also owes to our focus on deploying capital in the sectors where we have deep industry expertise and experience.

當然，任何投資最重要的估值驅動因素是基礎資產水平表現，總體而言，這繼續反映收入和收益的增長，儘管這種增長在 2022 年下半年普遍放緩。我們的強勁表現也歸功於我們專注於在我們擁有深厚行業專業知識和經驗的領域部署資本。

Our real estate funds appreciated 16% during 2022. Our Infrastructure & Natural Resource funds appreciated a very strong 48%, and Corporate Private Equity funds were up 6%. We realized $34 billion in proceeds for the year, which produced another year with $1 billion in net realized performance revenue. About what I previously indicated would be a good target in most years.

我們的房地產基金在 2022 年上漲了 16%。我們的基礎設施和自然資源基金上漲了 48%，企業私募股權基金上漲了 6%。這一年我們實現了 340 億美元的收益，這又產生了 10 億美元的淨實現績效收入。我之前指出的目標在大多數年份都是一個不錯的目標。

Looking forward, net accrued carry increased 2% year-over-year to $4 billion. A solid portfolio appreciation more than offset strong carry realizations. And we ended the year with $138 billion in fair value in our carry funds, up more than 10% compared to year-end 2021. In general, we continue to expect to generate on average $1 billion in annual net realized carry.

展望未來，淨應計利差同比增長 2% 至 40 億美元。穩健的投資組合增值抵消了強勁的利差實現。到年底，我們的套利基金的公允價值為 1380 億美元，比 2021 年底增長了 10% 以上。總的來說，我們繼續預計每年平均實現 10 億美元的淨套利。

Though depending on the year, realized performance income could be elevated as it was in 2021 when market factors were favorable or lower in years where uncertainty diminishes capital markets activity. Industry-wide activity rates slowed considerably in the past few months as buyers and sellers continue to search for evaluation middle ground, and funding markets while available are less amenable than they were just a year ago.

雖然取決於年份，但已實現的業績收入可能會像 2021 年那樣上升，當時市場因素有利，或者在不確定性減少資本市場活動的年份下降。過去幾個月，全行業的活動率大幅放緩，因為買家和賣家繼續尋找評估中間地帶，而融資市場雖然可用，但不如一年前那麼容易接受。

For Carlyle specifically, new investment and realization activity has also been slower. And so we expect a muted start to 2023 for both deployment and realizations. Thus, transaction revenue and realized performance income will be lower over the next quarter or 2. If our activity rates across the industry improve over the next few months, then our expectations for higher performance and transaction revenues will also increase.

具體而言，對於凱雷而言，新的投資和變現活動也比較緩慢。因此，我們預計到 2023 年部署和實現都會有一個平穩的開始。因此，交易收入和實現的業績收入將在下一季度或第二季度降低。如果我們在未來幾個月內整個行業的活動率有所改善，那麼我們對更高業績和交易收入的預期也會增加。

Let me now turn to some quick thoughts on each of the business segments. Global Private Equity had another strong year with fee-related earnings up 34%. Strong appreciation across Real Estate, Infrastructure and Natural Resources helped net accrued carry increase to $3.5 billion after more than $900 million of net carry realizations. $20 billion of invested capital was generally similar to $23 billion of realized proceeds, which positions global private equity to continue to deliver attractive levels of distributable earnings in future periods.

現在讓我談談對每個業務部門的一些快速思考。全球私募股權又迎來了強勁的一年，費用相關收益增長了 34%。在超過 9 億美元的淨利差實現後，房地產、基礎設施和自然資源的強勁升值幫助淨應計利差增加到 35 億美元。 200 億美元的投資資本大致相當於 230 億美元的已實現收益，這使全球私募股權在未來期間繼續提供具有吸引力的可分配收益水平。

Global Credit remains our fastest-growing segment, and it benefited from both organic growth activity as well as the positive impact from strategic transactions. Top line fee revenues grew 46% in 2022, resulted in fee-related earnings more than doubling to $225 million, and fee-related earnings margins increasing by nearly 1,000 basis points to 37%.

全球信貸仍然是我們增長最快的部門，它受益於有機增長活動以及戰略交易的積極影響。 2022 年的最高收費收入增長了 46%，導致與收費相關的收入翻了一番多，達到 2.25 億美元，與收費相關的利潤率增長了近 1,000 個基點，達到 37%。

Strong investment performance across various strategies produced $70 million of net realized performance revenue. Our credit interval fund delivered attractive performance with a 10% dividend yield, while continued net inflows grew managed assets to more than $2 billion. We raised $15 billion in new capital across 11 strategies in Global Credit in 2022, and we expect to have an active year fundraising for additional strategies in 2023, which should position Global Credit for further growth. In addition, we remain focused on helping Fortitude evaluate new growth opportunities, which would help us benefit from incremental advisory revenues.

各種策略的強勁投資業績產生了 7000 萬美元的已實現績效淨收入。我們的信用區間基金以 10% 的股息收益率取得了有吸引力的業績，同時持續的淨流入使管理資產增加到超過 20 億美元。 2022 年，我們通過 Global Credit 的 11 項戰略籌集了 150 億美元的新資本，我們預計 2023 年將有一個活躍的年份為更多戰略籌集資金，這將使 Global Credit 實現進一步增長。此外，我們仍然專注於幫助 Fortitude 評估新的增長機會，這將幫助我們從增加的諮詢收入中獲益。

And in Global Investment Solutions, we are well positioned to see growth in this segment as we begin fundraising for our flagship products, including next vintages in our co-investment and secondary strategies. Fee-related earnings of $69 million in 2022 was lower than 2021, but we expect to see growth later in 2023, as these strategies attract new capital. In addition, with $374 million in net accrued carry and very strong fund performance, performance-related revenues are well positioned to increase over time.

在全球投資解決方案方面，隨著我們開始為我們的旗艦產品籌集資金，包括我們共同投資和二級戰略中的下一個年份，我們有能力看到這一領域的增長。 2022 年與費用相關的收益為 6900 萬美元，低於 2021 年，但我們預計 2023 年晚些時候會出現增長，因為這些策略會吸引新資本。此外，憑藉 3.74 億美元的淨應計收益和非常強勁的基金業績，與業績相關的收入有望隨著時間的推移而增加。

In sum, we delivered strong performance for our stakeholders in 2022 and are well positioned for what will likely be a more attractive investment environment in 2023. We see tremendous opportunity to deploy capital into what we think will be a great investment for our portfolio and fund investors.

總而言之，我們在 2022 年為我們的利益相關者提供了強勁的表現，並為 2023 年可能更具吸引力的投資環境做好了準備。我們看到了巨大的機會，可以將資本配置到我們認為對我們的投資組合和基金來說是一項巨大投資的項目中投資者。

Now let me turn the call over to the operator so we can take your questions.

現在讓我將電話轉給接線員，以便我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So maybe for Bill, first. Look, I think a lot of investors have been getting on board the direction of travel for Carlyle for the last couple of years, FRE growth, margin expansion, diversification. So we had a pause for 6 or 7 months. We found Harvey. Maybe talk a little bit more about why Harvey and then, most importantly, what's he here to do relative to the strategy that all these investors are on board? And I want to know, like, is that strategy important to you and the co-founders because the process we went through is what it is? So just curious if you could talk to that.

所以也許首先是比爾。看，我認為在過去的幾年裡，很多投資者都在關注凱雷的發展方向，即 FRE 增長、利潤率擴張、多元化。所以我們暫停了 6 或 7 個月。我們找到了哈維。也許多談談為什麼哈維，然後，最重要的是，相對於所有這些投資者都支持的戰略，他來這裡做什麼？我想知道，這個策略對你和聯合創始人是否重要，因為我們經歷的過程就是這樣？所以很好奇你是否可以與之交談。

Sure. And thank you for the question, Glenn. First of all, I am very excited that Harvey is going to join us. He was our first choice, and he is -- and I think it should be pretty obvious why. We were looking for somebody who had a really proven track record. We were looking for somebody who had experience building businesses. We were looking for somebody who had a record of managing and recruiting and training and developing talent and working in the collaborative environment. We were looking for somebody who could relate to people like you in Wall Street and tell our story, a wide range of skills. And frankly, there aren't a lot of people who have all those skills.

當然。格倫，謝謝你提出這個問題。首先，我很高興哈維要加入我們。他是我們的第一選擇，他是——我認為原因應該很明顯。我們一直在尋找擁有可靠記錄的人。我們正在尋找有創業經驗的人。我們正在尋找具有管理、招聘、培訓和發展人才以及在協作環境中工作的記錄的人。我們正在尋找能夠與華爾街中像您這樣的人建立聯繫並講述我們的故事的人，以及廣泛的技能。坦率地說，擁有所有這些技能的人並不多。

In Harvey, I think we found that person. He is really fantastic. Yesterday, he and I were walking around our New York office. We went on all the floors, we were talking to people, and he was happy to see them, and they were happy to see him. And it was really not so much they want to get rid of me, but rather they were excited to see him there. We obviously have a lot of people who used to work for Goldman, and they were happy to see him; and people who just had heard about him and his track record and his skill set.

在哈維身上，我想我們找到了那個人。他真的很棒。昨天，他和我在我們紐約的辦公室裡走來走去。我們走遍了所有樓層，與人們交談，他很高興見到他們，他們也很高興見到他。他們真的不是很想擺脫我，而是很高興能在那裡見到他。我們顯然有很多人曾經為高盛工作，他們很高興見到他；以及剛剛聽說過他以及他的履歷和技能的人。

So I think why Harvey and who he is and what his track record is, that was pretty clear to me that we couldn't get anybody any better than Harvey. He was -- he's fantastic. Now what's he here to do? I think in some ways, the path that we have is set. We want to -- first of all, we want to increase the stock price. Even though we are -- we've got a great investment track record that doesn't show up in our stock price, we have -- how is he going to do that? Well, we have to grow our business, we have to grow our business, we have to grow our business.

所以我認為為什麼哈維和他是誰以及他的記錄是什麼，這對我來說很清楚我們找不到比哈維更好的人了。他是——他太棒了。現在他來這裡做什麼？我認為在某些方面，我們的道路已經確定。我們想——首先，我們想提高股價。即使我們 - 我們有一個很好的投資記錄，但不會顯示在我們的股價中，我們有 - 他將如何做到這一點？好吧，我們必鬚髮展我們的業務，我們必鬚髮展我們的業務，我們必鬚髮展我們的業務。

Particularly the fee-related earnings, but other parts of the business as well that assets and the like, he's got a great set of experiences. Remember, he was at Goldman during the time of a financial crisis and talking about having to deal with situations that were risky and yet had great opportunity. So I don't see dramatic changes in the basic strategy, but it will be up to Harvey. He's going to be the CEO of the company. And I'm going to do everything I can to help him be successful and -- including staying out of his way, if that's the right part of the solution. I can't tell you how happy I am that he's here.

特別是與費用相關的收入，但業務的其他部分以及資產等，他都有豐富的經驗。請記住，他在金融危機期間在高盛工作，談論必須處理有風險但也有很好機會的情況。所以我認為基本策略不會發生重大變化，但這取決於哈維。他將成為公司的首席執行官。我將盡我所能幫助他取得成功——包括不妨礙他，如果這是解決方案的正確部分。我無法告訴你他在這裡我有多高興。

Well, long track record with him, so I totally agree with that. Maybe just one numbers question. I'm interested in your comments about the improving bid-ask dynamic. You have $11 or so in net accrued performance revenue, which is a lot relative to your stock price, like you said. So you realized $1 billion in performance revenue, but you picked up another $1 billion basically on the back of Infrastructure and Natural Resources. So could you expand a little bit more on what you talked about the improving bid dynamic -- bid-ask dynamic? Is that like a near-term-ish thing? Or is that a hopefully second half thing? Just curious on what you think it takes to get the wheels moving again.

好吧，與他有長期的往來記錄，所以我完全同意這一點。也許只是一個數字問題。我對您對改進的買賣動態的評論很感興趣。你有 11 美元左右的淨應計績效收入，這與你的股價有很大關係，就像你說的那樣。所以你實現了 10 億美元的性能收入，但你基本上在基礎設施和自然資源的支持下又獲得了 10 億美元。那麼，您能否進一步闡述您所說的改善出價動態——買賣動態？這像是近期的事情嗎？或者這是希望下半年的事情？只是好奇你認為需要什麼才能讓輪子再次移動。

That is -- that the real question is. And of course, what we're talking about there is that sellers think their businesses were worth what they were worth a year or 2 ago. And buyers say, "Well, I don't want to pay those prices anymore." And so there's been a gap. I've mentioned in my remarks that it's been both in the prices of equities, we see it kind of on the value of the companies that you own, but it also applies to credit. For example, there was a deal recently and we looked at where the credit spread or all in price of the credit a year ago might have been 6% or 6.5%, and now it's double digits. So there are still certainly some disparities in valuation.

那就是——真正的問題是。當然，我們在這裡談論的是，賣家認為他們的業務價值相當於一兩年前的價值。買家說，“好吧，我不想再支付那些價格了。”所以有一個差距。我在發言中提到，它既體現在股票價格上，也體現在你所擁有的公司的價值上，但它也適用於信貸。例如，最近有一筆交易，我們查看了一年前的信貸利差或信貸總價可能是 6% 或 6.5%，而現在是兩位數。因此，估值肯定仍存在一些差異。

However, it is getting better, Glenn. And I'd say it's getting better slowly. It's not rapidly. This is not going to be something that I think it -- someone is going to ring the buzz and we're going to know that it's where it should be. Private equity has the advantage and private debt too as well of being able to evolve and able to function in lots of different kinds of environments and to adjust to those environments. And I see that in the types of deals that we do now. We're not doing deals that are giant deals that require billions -- $10 billion of equity and $10 billion of credit. Those deals will be almost impossible to do today.

不過，情況正在好轉，格倫。我會說它正在慢慢好轉。這不是很快。這不會像我想的那樣——有人會發出嗡嗡聲，我們會知道它應該在什麼地方。私募股權和私人債務也有優勢，能夠在許多不同類型的環境中發展和運作，並適應這些環境。我在我們現在所做的交易類型中看到了這一點。我們不會進行需要數十億美元的巨額交易——100 億美元的股權和 100 億美元的信貸。這些交易在今天幾乎不可能完成。

But the market is gradually healing. Buyers and sellers gradually coming together. And I think it's on both sides. I think buyers are dropping the prices down and I think -- price what they're willing to pay. And the sellers are saying, well, maybe we're going to have to just be able to settle for a lower price than we thought. And I think that's across the board. It's not going to be just in private equity, it's not going to be just in Americas, it's everywhere. More in the second half probably than the first.

但市場正在逐漸癒合。買賣雙方逐漸走到一起。我認為這是雙方的。我認為買家正在降價，而且我認為——定價他們願意支付的價格。賣家說，好吧，也許我們只能以比我們想像的更低的價格成交。我認為這是全面的。它不會只存在於私募股權領域，也不會只存在於美洲，它無處不在。下半場可能比上半場更多。

Next question comes from Bill Katz with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Bill Katz。

Congrats on adding Mr. Schwartz. So a question for you, guys. You mentioned that you think that asset gathering can be better in '23 than in 2022. I was wondering if you could unpack that a little bit and maybe bifurcate between where you stand on sort of the free flagship corporate private equity portfolios versus the rest of the business with some emphasis on the solutions business?

恭喜加入 Schwartz 先生。所以問你們一個問題，伙計們。你提到你認為 23 年的資產收集可能比 2022 年更好。我想知道你是否可以稍微分解一下，也許可以在你所處的免費旗艦公司私募股權投資組合與其餘部分之間分叉業務側重於解決方案業務？

Bill, it's Curt. Thanks for your question. I'll start and then Bill might add in. So I'm really proud of what we did in 2022 from a deployment standpoint. We deployed $35 billion across the portfolio. It was actually our most deployment in any year. And between '22 and '23, it was noticeably better than what it had been in all prior years. Bill talked about some of the challenges here recently, and we think that, that's going to pick back up.

比爾，我是柯特。謝謝你的問題。我先開始，然後 Bill 可能會加入。因此，從部署的角度來看，我為我們在 2022 年所做的事情感到非常自豪。我們在整個投資組合中部署了 350 億美元。這實際上是我們在任何一年中部署最多的一次。在 22 年和 23 年之間，它明顯好於之前所有年份。比爾最近在這裡談到了一些挑戰，我們認為，這將會恢復。

The diversification across the platform and deployment I was really proud of because what you saw in '23 was much more coming out of Global Credit and other aspects of even private equity outside of corporate private equity. And so all of that was really good. So the deployment piece was really good. That leads us into a good place from a fundraising perspective and sets us up well for fundraising.

跨平台和部署的多元化我真的很自豪，因為你在 23 年看到的更多來自全球信貸和公司私募股權之外的私募股權的其他方面。所以這一切都非常好。所以部署部分非常好。從籌款的角度來看，這使我們進入了一個好地方，並為籌款做好了準備。

And so because it's the first and foremost thing, I think, is kind of how the portfolios are performing and then how you think about fundraising. So from a fundraising standpoint, a couple of high-level things for you to keep in mind. Our portfolios are performing really well. And this, I think, sets us up nicely to go as we seek to raise more capital.

因此，我認為，首先也是最重要的是投資組合的表現，然後是你對籌款的看法。因此，從籌款的角度來看，您需要牢記一些高層次的事情。我們的投資組合表現非常好。我認為，這為我們尋求籌集更多資金做好了準備。

Second, as Bill said, we expect to raise more in 2023 than we did in 2022, and we'll have more products in the market to support this. The third thing from a number standpoint, I want you to keep in mind is, in 2021, at the beginning of the year, we said we would raise $130-plus billion over 4 years. So 2 years in, we've raised $80 billion, $50 billion last year, $30 billion this year. And we added $65 billion through strategic transactions. So that's $145 billion of new fee-earning AUM in just 2 years. And you see that in our fee-related earnings, up 40%, 30-plus CAGR over the last 5 years. And so that's done really well. And we've seen a lot of that growth really in credit and in our solutions business.

其次，正如比爾所說，我們預計 2023 年籌集的資金將比 2022 年多，我們將在市場上推出更多產品來支持這一點。從數字的角度來看，我想讓大家記住的第三件事是，在 2021 年年初，我們說我們將在 4 年內籌集 130 多億美元。所以兩年來，我們籌集了 800 億美元，去年是 500 億美元，今年是 300 億美元。我們通過戰略交易增加了 650 億美元。因此，在短短 2 年內，這是 1450 億美元的新收費 AUM。你會看到我們與費用相關的收入在過去 5 年中增長了 40%，複合年增長率超過 30。所以這做得很好。我們已經在信貸和我們的解決方案業務中看到了很多增長。

Now in the buyout funds, we still have, obviously, some congestion in that space, but there's a number of reasons to have optimism there. First, as Bill said, I think there's less uncertainty about the global markets today than it was a year ago. Second, public markets seem to be improving here in early days of the year, but it's still early. Third, we're in '23. So that's a new set of allocations for investors. And last, with the appointment of Harvey Schwartz, we have a lot of reason to be excited. And we hope that, that carries forward to our investors and taking away some uncertainty that may linger there in certain situations.

現在在收購基金中，很明顯，我們在這個領域仍然有些擁堵，但有很多理由對那裡持樂觀態度。首先，正如比爾所說，我認為當今全球市場的不確定性比一年前要少。其次，公共市場在年初似乎有所改善，但現在還為時過早。第三，我們在 23 年。所以這是一套新的投資者配置。最後，隨著 Harvey Schwartz 的任命，我們有充分的理由感到興奮。我們希望，這會延續到我們的投資者，並消除在某些情況下可能存在的一些不確定性。

But look, I'll reiterate that I think that our buyout funds will be similar in size to their previous vintages. And so I'm confident in that and very excited about kind of our overall growth in the firm. And I think that this will be a better year from a fundraising perspective than it was in 2022 and, again, helping us in our focus on driving fee-related earnings.

但是，我要重申，我認為我們的收購基金的規模將與之前的年份相似。因此，我對此充滿信心，並對我們公司的整體增長感到非常興奮。而且我認為，從籌款的角度來看，今年將比 2022 年更好，並且再次幫助我們專注於推動與費用相關的收入。

Okay. And just a follow-up, maybe stick with you, Curt. So just sort of triangulating the notion of FRE up in '23 over '22, just sort of wondering how you might be able to ring-fence that. And then just given the sort of yet to be determined incremental strategy with Mr. Schwartz, how should we think about margins? Because I hear a lot of grow the business, grow the business, grow the business. Can you drive FRE up and FRE margins up if you still need to grow the business?

好的。只是跟進，也許堅持你，柯特。所以只是對 FRE 的概念在 23 年超過 22 年進行了三角測量，只是想知道你如何能夠圍欄它。然後，鑑於施瓦茨先生尚未確定的增量戰略，我們應該如何考慮利潤率？因為我聽到很多發展業務，發展業務，發展業務。如果您仍需要發展業務，您能否提高 FRE 和 FRE 利潤率？

Bill, look, I said that we're confident we're going to grow fee-related earnings in '23. I think the first quarter will be a little flat, as I said in my remarks. But thereafter, I think things are really set up nicely. There's -- this is a challenging environment, and we are continuing to invest and that's why I think this might be a little lower rate of total growth than, say, in the past, but feeling really good about our ability to grow fee-related earnings. I think with Harvey coming on, his past experience in helping companies and helping situations improve profitability will be a good addition to the team, will bring new thoughts to this. But I also want to be careful and give him the opportunity to put his imprint on things. And so I want to be a little cautious in terms of how much specificity I give in guidance, but we're really well set up to begin '23.

比爾，你看，我說過我們有信心在 23 年增加與費用相關的收入。正如我在發言中所說，我認為第一季度會有點平淡。但此後，我認為事情真的安排得很好。這是一個充滿挑戰的環境，我們正在繼續投資，這就是為什麼我認為總增長率可能比過去低一點，但對我們增加與費用相關的能力感到非常滿意收益。我認為隨著 Harvey 的加入，他過去在幫助公司和幫助情況提高盈利能力方面的經驗將成為團隊的一個很好的補充，並將為此帶來新的想法。但我也想小心點，給他留下印記的機會。因此，我想對我在指導中給出的具體程度持謹慎態度，但我們真的準備好開始 23 年了。

Our next question comes from Alexander Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexander Blostein。

Maybe just to follow up the prior discussion from Bill's question. It sounds like you guys still feel pretty confident about the overall fundraising targets that you laid out couple of years ago, but the mix might be slightly different. Obviously, you highlighted the private equity business is a little bit slower. Can you expand on that a little bit? And as you think about the ramp that you're talking about into 2023 from FRE growth, what are some of the key products and strategies that you expect to be kind of the biggest contributors to that ramp?

也許只是為了跟進比爾問題中的先前討論。聽起來你們對幾年前製定的總體籌款目標仍然很有信心，但組合可能略有不同。顯然，您強調了私募股權業務有點慢。你能稍微擴展一下嗎？當你考慮到你正在談論的從 FRE 增長到 2023 年的斜坡時，你期望哪些關鍵產品和戰略成為該斜坡的最大貢獻者？

Alex, it's Curt. Let me start and then Bill can add. So look, credit did about $15 billion this past year. It's going to have more product in the market than last, feeling really good about how that continues. Our opportunistic credit fund is out there raising money. Our CLO business will probably start the year a little slower because of all the reasons we've talked about. But I think it's always a heavy weight in the room.

亞歷克斯，這是柯特。讓我開始，然後 Bill 可以補充。所以你看，信貸在過去一年做了大約 150 億美元。它將在市場上推出比上次更多的產品，對這種情況的持續發展感覺非常好。我們的機會主義信貸基金正在籌集資金。由於我們已經討論過的所有原因，我們的 CLO 業務可能會在今年開始時稍微慢一些。但我認為它在房間裡總是很重。

And then in the solutions business, we've got our co-investment products and our secondaries products and a couple of new things that we'll bring to market this year. And so again, more products in that space. Think of the solutions business as really being a nice way to kind of really increase from where they were in 2022. And then in private equity, look, we're going to have more product in the market in private equity. So a number of buyout funds, U.S., Europe, Asia, will either begin or will be in the market from a fundraising perspective. There's other products in private equity that will be in the market. And so that, too, I think, is well positioned to do better. I don't know, Bill, if you have anything to add.

然後在解決方案業務中，我們有我們的共同投資產品和我們的二級產品以及我們今年將推向市場的一些新產品。再次，該領域的更多產品。將解決方案業務視為從 2022 年的水平真正增長的好方法。然後在私募股權領域，我們將在私募股權市場上推出更多產品。因此，從籌資的角度來看，美國、歐洲、亞洲的許多收購基金將開始或將進入市場。市場上還有其他私募股權產品。因此，我認為，它也有能力做得更好。比爾，我不知道你是否有什麼要補充的。

Yes. I think solution is going to be a big growing fund and the funds of solutions are going to be a pretty big growing area this year. I also -- I don't want to confine Harvey in any way. I don't want my comments in any way to limit his ability to imagine a different future or a different way that things could be done better. So I'm a little hesitant to get too specific on this. But I do think that the noncorporate private equity funds, the demand is there, too.

是的。我認為解決方案將成為一個巨大的增長基金，今年解決方案基金將成為一個相當大的增長領域。我也——我不想以任何方式限制哈維。我不希望我的評論以任何方式限制他想像一個不同的未來或以不同的方式把事情做得更好的能力。所以我有點猶豫是否要對此過於具體。但我確實認為非公司私募股權基金也存在需求。

I used that credit example before when I was answering a prior question. Sometimes when it's a little tougher to raise the equity, raising the credit funds is a little easier because the opportunity is great, the spreads are wider and more money can be made by the investors in those funds. But I don't want to confine my answer in any way that will limit Harvey and his ability to do a great job.

我在回答之前的問題時使用了那個信用示例。有時，當籌集股權有點困難時，籌集信貸基金會容易一些，因為機會很大，利差更大，這些基金的投資者可以賺到更多的錢。但我不想以任何會限制哈維和他出色完成工作的能力的方式來限制我的回答。

Got it. All right. We'll stay tuned for -- when Harvey is on.

知道了。好的。我們將繼續關注——當哈維出現時。

Thank you. You know Harvey? Do you know Harvey?

謝謝。你知道哈維嗎？你認識哈維嗎？

I have met Harvey, yes.

我見過哈維，是的。

Okay. Good. I just -- I didn't know whether or not another Goldman Sachs person might weigh in and what a great guy he is.

好的。好的。我只是——我不知道高盛的另一個人是否會參與進來，也不知道他是一個多麼偉大的人。

My quick follow-up for you guys was around Fortitude. That's something you mentioned in your prepared remarks as well. And I think, Curt, you highlighted some new growth initiatives within that, that can kind of help expedite some of the growth as well. Can you expand on that a bit as well?

我對你們的快速跟進是關於 Fortitude 的。這也是你在準備好的發言中提到的。我認為，Curt，你在其中強調了一些新的增長計劃，這些計劃也可以幫助加快一些增長。你能再擴展一下嗎？

Sure, Alex. So look, Fortitude has got $50 billion, $51 billion of AUM. The way we've set up the services arrangement, we fee off of all of that. In addition, they've invested about 9 -- or I should say, committed about $9 billion into our funds. So all of that has been working as planned. They also have about $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion of excess capital, which positions them nicely to continue to grow, very active pipeline, working really hard on that.

當然，亞歷克斯。所以看，Fortitude 擁有 500 億美元、510 億美元的資產管理規模。我們建立服務安排的方式，我們從所有這些中收取費用。此外，他們已經向我們的基金投資了大約 9 筆——或者我應該說，承諾投入了大約 90 億美元。所以所有這些都按計劃進行。他們還有大約 35 億至 45 億美元的過剩資本，這使他們能夠很好地繼續增長，非常活躍的渠道，並為此努力工作。

We've said before that we fully expect that to be -- for them to be able to double in size because of that and fully expect that, that will occur. And when we have more to be able to say on those fronts, we'll be sure to mention that to you. But we remain very optimistic about kind of how Fortitude can continue to benefit Carlyle.

我們之前已經說過，我們完全期望它能夠 - 因此他們能夠將規模擴大一倍，並且完全期望它會發生。當我們在這些方面有更多話要說時，我們一定會向您提及。但我們仍然對 Fortitude 如何繼續讓凱雷受益持樂觀態度。

I'd also tell you that Fortitude has -- we have 4 or 5 institutional partners who are in that business and are fellow shareholders with us in Fortitude. And they have been fabulous partners helping us grow that business. For us, it still is -- we got a lot of capital invested, but we have less than we otherwise would, thanks to those great partners we have. And as Curt said, we do expect to double that business over the next few years at least.

我還要告訴你，Fortitude 有——我們有 4 或 5 個機構合作夥伴從事該業務，並且是我們 Fortitude 的股東。他們一直是幫助我們發展業務的絕佳合作夥伴。對我們來說，它仍然是——我們投入了大量資金，但由於我們擁有的那些優秀合作夥伴，我們擁有的資金比以前少。正如 Curt 所說，我們確實希望至少在未來幾年內將該業務翻一番。

Our next question comes from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

I wanted to get a little bit more on the CP -- this PE fundraising issues. Could you maybe update us -- I know it's early in the year, but update us on the tone of the conversations with LPs? Are you starting to see people kind of step back into PE more broadly? And thoughts on maybe a more specific time line for when we can see some more chunky closings in those large flagship funds? And then maybe through the lens of all that, is it fair to say 4Q is about as bad as you think it could get in that line?

我想更多地了解 CP——這個 PE 籌款問題。您能否向我們介紹最新情況——我知道現在是今年年初，但請向我們介紹與 LP 對話的基調？你是否開始看到人們更廣泛地回歸 PE？以及關於我們何時可以看到這些大型旗艦基金更大量關閉的更具體時間表的想法？然後也許從所有這些的角度來看，可以說 4Q 和你認為的一樣糟糕嗎？

Patrick, let me start on this, but I'm always sensitive about trying to read into the minds of others or really try to figure this out in detail. Look, we have great relations with our LP investors. I think they're pleased with what we're doing. A lot of our portfolio performance has been just fantastic and well constructed. And as I already went through a litany of things in terms of what we've done well, $145 billion of capital formation in the past 2 years, I think that we can continue to do that in terms of growing and looking, we'll continue to look at organic things.

帕特里克，讓我從這個開始，但我總是很敏感地試圖讀懂別人的想法，或者真的試圖詳細解決這個問題。看，我們與我們的 LP 投資者關係很好。我認為他們對我們正在做的事情感到滿意。我們的許多投資組合表現都非常出色且構建良好。就我們做得好的事情而言，我已經經歷了一連串的事情，在過去兩年中形成了 1450 億美元的資本，我認為我們可以在增長和展望方面繼續這樣做，我們將繼續看有機的東西。

So look, I think the tone is good, but it's still difficult in different places. And tone, you got to be specific related to kind of individual situations in the given fund and the like. And there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic as we start '23. So Bill, I don't know if you have anything to add to that?

所以你看，我覺得調子是好的，但是還是有不同地方的難點。語氣，你必須具體與給定基金中的個別情況等相關。當我們開始 23 年時，有很多理由保持樂觀。那麼比爾，我不知道你是否有什麼要補充的？

No more specifics to give at this time, Curt. Sorry.

Curt，目前沒有更多細節可以提供。對不起。

Our next question comes from Kenneth Worthington with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯尼斯沃辛頓。

Maybe first, private markets investing in energy. As you start to come back to market with more of these funds, how does the better environment in energy mesh with pension fund community that seems more reluctant to invest further in traditional energy? And what does this mean for your ability to grow your energy franchise in what seems like a more constructive energy environment?

也許首先是私人市場投資於能源。當您開始帶著更多此類基金重返市場時，能源領域更好的環境如何與似乎更不願意進一步投資傳統能源的養老基金社區相結合？這對您在看似更具建設性的能源環境中發展能源特許經營權的能力意味著什麼？

Ken, well said. I mean, I do think that we're optimistic on the energy platforms. Our partners and colleagues at NGP are excited about their opportunities. They've got a fund in the market now. I don't want to comment specifically on that, but expecting good things out of that. Our renewables platform, our power business, our international energy platform all give us a number of products, but they're not all in the market. But you're right. Right now, there's a lot of good opportunity in energy, but different LPs based on their constituencies have different perspectives.

肯，說得好。我的意思是，我確實認為我們對能源平台持樂觀態度。我們在 NGP 的合作夥伴和同事對他們的機會感到興奮。他們現在在市場上有一隻基金。我不想對此發表具體評論，但希望從中得到好處。我們的可再生能源平台、我們的電力業務、我們的國際能源平台都為我們提供了許多產品，但它們並不都在市場上。但你是對的。現在，能源領域有很多好機會，但不同的有限合夥人基於他們的選區有不同的觀點。

The limited experience that we have is that generally, we're seeing a nice uptick from the existing investors in existing product, which is different than kind of going after new or different, but it's a good opportunity at the present time.

我們的有限經驗是，一般來說，我們看到現有產品的現有投資者有一個很好的增長，這與追求新產品或不同產品不同，但目前這是一個很好的機會。

And I think its returns are pretty uncorrelated with all the other returns available in the market, too, and that appeals to a certain group of investors as well.

而且我認為它的回報率與市場上所有其他可用回報率也很不相關，這也吸引了特定的投資者群體。

Okay. So do you -- are you -- do you think the business can grow? Or does it just sort of stay here as those 2 trends offset each other?

好的。那麼你 - 你 - 你認為業務可以增長嗎？或者它只是停留在這裡，因為這兩種趨勢相互抵消？

Look, the needs are really significant. I think a lot of that has played out. And so it's too early, Ken, to really call that definitively. But look, I feel a whole heck of a lot better about that whole sector than say, 2 years ago where it felt a lot more difficult. Right now, everything, performance and the chance forward on a lot of those different aspects, I think, are really, really good.

看，需求真的很重要。我認為其中很多已經發揮作用。因此，Ken，現在下定論還為時過早。但是看，我對整個行業的感覺比 2 年前感覺要困難得多。現在，我認為在很多不同方面的一切、表現和前進的機會都非常非常好。

And then equity comp fell a bunch during the quarter. What drove it? And I assume we see that sort of snap back next year?

然後，本季度股票價格大幅下跌。是什麼驅使它？我假設我們明年會看到這種反彈？

Yes. That's -- look, like a lot of things in this business, looking at any individual quarter is a mistake. You got to look at it over a longer period of time. The fourth quarter had some unusual things in it. Essentially, our fourth quarter is always a little bit light because you've completed a vesting of a big tranche in the third quarter. And you haven't granted anything new that occurs in February. So the fourth quarter is naturally a low quarter, plus we had some performance units for some senior folks that didn't fully there that had been accrued prior in the year. So the fourth quarter was a little bit light.

是的。那是——看，就像這個行業的很多事情一樣，看任何一個單獨的季度都是錯誤的。您必須在更長的時間內查看它。第四節有一些不尋常的事情。從本質上講，我們的第四季度總是有點輕鬆，因為您已經在第三季度完成了大筆資金的歸屬。而且您還沒有授予 2 月發生的任何新事物。因此，第四季度自然是一個較低的季度，而且我們為一些高級人員提供了一些性能單元，這些單元在今年之前沒有完全存在。所以第四節有點輕鬆。

I do think you're going to see a significant uptick in our equity-based comp next year in 2023, both -- we've made some big grants in February, just a number of our key people and to ensure retention and make sure to reward people that have performed really well and then also bringing on Harvey, and that will also have an increase in our equity-based comp in 2023.

我確實認為你會在明年 2023 年看到我們基於股權的薪酬顯著上升——我們在 2 月份提供了一些大額贈款，只是我們的一些關鍵人員，並確保保留並確保獎勵表現非常出色的人，然後讓哈維上場，這也將在 2023 年增加我們基於股權的薪酬。

Our next question comes from Brian McKenna with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的 Brian McKenna。

Great. So realizations have been pretty resilient despite the tough backdrop I'm curious what parts of your portfolio are you most active monetizing today? And then it might be tough to answer, but what's the base case expectation for realizations in 2023, assuming no material shift in the backdrop? Do you think you can get back to that $1 billion level again?

偉大的。因此，儘管背景艱難，但實現仍然非常有彈性我很好奇你投資組合的哪些部分是你今天最積極的貨幣化？然後可能很難回答，但假設背景沒有發生實質性變化，對 2023 年實現的基本案例預期是什麼？你認為你能再次回到 10 億美元的水平嗎？

So Brian, it's a great question. And I always like policy my crystal ball to fine-tune this as best I can. A year ago, in the fourth quarter of 2021, we earned about $700 million in net realized carry off of a very strong realization period. And that was like not only impossible to forecast and predict until kind of as it was happening, it also shows the power of what can occur in a single quarter.

所以布賴恩，這是一個很好的問題。而且我總是喜歡用我的水晶球來盡可能地微調它。一年前，即 2021 年第四季度，我們在一個非常強勁的變現期實現了約 7 億美元的淨變現結轉。這不僅是不可能預測和預測的，直到它正在發生，它還顯示了一個季度內可能發生的事情的力量。

So we're sitting here today with $4 billion of net accrued carry on the balance sheet. Our underlying portfolio of $138 billion of fair value is up 10% from a year ago. So the portfolio is incredibly well positioned to continue to drive significant realizations for our LPs and carried interest for us.

所以我們今天坐在這裡，資產負債表上有 40 億美元的淨應計收益。我們 1380 億美元公允價值的基礎投資組合比一年前增長了 10%。因此，該投資組合處於非常有利的位置，可以繼續為我們的 LP 帶來重大實現並為我們帶來利益。

Now exact timing of that, look, it's going to be second half of the year. Now good news is there's some smaller, midsized transactions occurring as we speak that gives me a lot of confidence. But the big stuff that will really drive it will be more in the back half of the year. And keep in mind, you actually sign up a transaction, and it takes often a couple of quarters to actually close the transaction. And so the level of announced transaction is far lower today than say, a year ago. And so therefore, it's going to be the back half of the year.

現在確切的時間，看，這將是今年下半年。現在好消息是，就在我們說話的時候，發生了一些較小的中型交易，這給了我很大的信心。但真正推動它的大事將在今年下半年出現。請記住，您實際上簽署了一項交易，通常需要幾個季度才能真正完成交易。因此，今天宣布的交易水平遠低於一年前。因此，這將是今年下半年。

Helpful. And then just with respect to CP VII, gross returns of the fund total 14% or 8% on a net basis. So how are you thinking about returns for this fund as it continues to mature over time? And then if you look back historically, what's the average markup on realized investments relative to the prior unrealized marks?

有幫助。然後就 CP VII 而言，該基金的總回報率為 14% 或 8%（按淨額計算）。那麼，隨著該基金隨著時間的推移不斷成熟，您如何看待該基金的回報？然後，如果您回顧歷史，相對於之前未實現的標記，已實現投資的平均加價是多少？

So I would be very careful in terms of -- we have funds that are in fundraising. To talking about specifics and forward stuff is complicated on a call like this. But let me give you some high-level thinking. First, our current generation of buyout funds are generally in the same position as their predecessor funds, which all did exceptionally well. And really, I'm optimistic in terms of where this fund and the similar vintage funds will continue to perform and do, just as I said, with respect to carry.

所以我會非常小心 - 我們有籌款資金。在這樣的電話會議上談論細節和轉發內容很複雜。但是讓我給你一些高層次的思考。首先，我們這一代的收購基金與它們的前身基金大體處於相同的位置，它們都做得非常好。真的，我對這只基金和類似的老式基金將繼續表現和做的地方持樂觀態度，正如我所說的那樣。

So I think we're well set up for this. And keep in mind, our portfolio construction, whether it's in private equity or real estate or credit, is very diversified. And we tend to invest in good assets where we have deep industry experience and knowledge, where we understand the macro environment where they're operating in. And most of our value creation comes from driving revenue and driving earnings. It's generally not, hey, we figure out how to buy low sell high. It's generally not kind of -- boy, we can turn this business around because we're smarter than everybody else. We bring tools to add to revenue, add to profitability, and that's what it turns in the success.

所以我認為我們已經為此做好了準備。請記住，我們的投資組合結構，無論是私募股權、房地產還是信貸，都非常多元化。我們傾向於投資於我們擁有深厚行業經驗和知識的優質資產，我們了解他們經營所在的宏觀環境。我們的大部分價值創造來自於推動收入和盈利。通常不是，嘿，我們弄清楚如何低買高賣。這通常不是 - 男孩，我們可以扭轉這個局面，因為我們比其他人都聰明。我們帶來工具來增加收入，增加盈利能力，這就是成功的原因。

Our next question comes from Rufus Hone with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Rufus Hone。

I wanted to come back to some of the comments you made around the FRE growth trajectory. I guess could you give us a better sense of when you anticipate getting into the double-digit growth rate you mentioned in the prepared remarks. And do you think you can get to double digits organically? Or is that dependent on inorganic growth?

我想回到您圍繞 FRE 增長軌跡發表的一些評論。我想你能否讓我們更好地了解你預計何時會達到你在準備好的評論中提到的兩位數增長率。你認為你能有機地達到兩位數嗎？或者這取決於無機增長？

Rufus, thanks. Look, we can definitely get double-digit organically where -- the business is growing fast and it's very possible that we'll get there in '23, but I would say, it's on the lower side of that, and it really depends upon activity levels. Transaction fees can be a big help. Transaction fees, essentially, if you look on detail while 2022 was up over '21 and was our best year ever on transaction fee revenues. And from Q2, it kind of peaked and came down in Q3 and came down in Q4, which put a downward pressure on fee-related earnings. I think they're -- it's going to remain like in the first quarter or so. And then as they pick back up, that will be a big help.

魯弗斯，謝謝。看，我們絕對可以有機地獲得兩位數的增長——業務增長迅速，我們很有可能在 23 年實現這一目標，但我想說，它處於較低的一邊，這真的取決於活動水平。交易費用可能是一個很大的幫助。交易費用，本質上，如果你查看細節，而 2022 年比 21 年高，是我們有史以來交易費用收入最好的一年。從第二季度開始，它在第三季度達到頂峰並下降，然後在第四季度下降，這給與費用相關的收益帶來了下行壓力。我認為他們 - 它會保持在第一季度左右。然後當他們恢復時，這將是一個很大的幫助。

In addition, there's a number of things that we think will also turn on later in the year. And keep in mind, our credit business generally generates fees off of invested capital. So as we raise capital in that business and raised a lot of money in 2022, as it deploys, we get the benefit of that. And so there's a built-in lag between fundraising and fee generation, in particular, in that business. So hopefully, that gives you some color.

此外，我們認為今年晚些時候還會啟用許多功能。請記住，我們的信貸業務通常會從投資資本中產生費用。因此，當我們在該業務中籌集資金並在 2022 年籌集大量資金時，隨著它的部署，我們從中受益。因此，籌款和產生費用之間存在內在的滯後，尤其是在該業務中。所以希望這能給你一些顏色。

And I would just add, Rufus, as we said during our remarks, we continue to invest in new product development and distribution. And that's across the platform and we noted that, that's in the private wealth channel as well. So those are things that should help us drive organic new growth over time in addition to, of course, inorganic opportunities that show up and all the things that Curt just mentioned.

我只想補充一點，Rufus，正如我們在發言中所說的那樣，我們將繼續投資於新產品的開發和分銷。這是整個平台，我們注意到，這也在私人財富渠道中。因此，這些東西應該可以幫助我們隨著時間的推移推動有機的新增長，當然還有出現的無機機會以及 Curt 剛才提到的所有事情。

Our next question comes from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

And we just want to congratulate you on naming a top-notch CEO.

我們只想祝賀您任命了一位一流的 CEO。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So we wanted to start with an update on fundraising for the flagship PE funds starting with CPA. I think there are a number of large LPs that wanted to wait until 2023 when their annual deployment allocations were reset before they committed to 8. I just want to see how this is playing out now that we're more than a month into 2023?

所以我們想從 CPA 開始為旗艦 PE 基金籌款的最新情況開始。我認為有許多大型 LP 希望等到 2023 年重新設置他們的年度部署分配，然後再承諾 8 個。我只想看看現在我們已經進入 2023 年一個多月了，這是怎麼回事？

Craig, it's really too early and I really don't like to talk about details on a given fund, but remain optimistic in terms of where all of our fundraising can turn out. And as we said, I think we're going to raise more money this year than we did last year.

克雷格，現在真的太早了，我真的不想談論特定基金的細節，但對我們所有籌款的結果保持樂觀。正如我們所說，我認為今年我們將籌集到比去年更多的資金。

Got it. And just as my follow-up. A big question for us is the long-term growth trajectory. And I know there's not a ton you can say on this, but when you wrap up your fundraising super cycle with Asia 6 and Europe 6 this year and start to exit the cycle, can you talk about the potential for FRE growth to decelerate and help us kind of with this risk really framing into '24? And I think it really comes down to the dynamic of can you raise enough capital in insurance solutions and credit to offset the net realizations that your private business will generate?

知道了。就像我的後續行動一樣。對我們來說，一個大問題是長期增長軌跡。我知道你對此無話可說，但是當你今年結束與亞洲 6 和歐洲 6 的籌款超級週期並開始退出這個週期時，你能談談 FRE 增長減速和幫助的潛力嗎我們有點冒著這種風險真的進入了'24？我認為這真的取決於你能否在保險解決方案和信貸方面籌集足夠的資金來抵消你的私營企業將產生的淨實現？

So Craig, I am very optimistic. Let's just start with solutions. Solutions pre '21 or so was -- for 5 years, was averaging about $30 million or so in fee-related earnings, had a very successful fundraise and growth in that business and stair-stepped up essentially doubled initially to $80 million. We're now in the $70 million or $69 million in '22 for fee-related earnings. It does everything that I'm expecting it to do. I see it doubling again. It won't double in '23, but I think, in '24, that business can double.

所以克雷格，我非常樂觀。讓我們從解決方案開始。解決方案在 21 年前左右是——5 年來，與費用相關的收入平均約為 3000 萬美元左右，籌款非常成功，該業務的增長和階梯式增長最初基本上翻了一番，達到 8000 萬美元。我們現在在 22 年的費用相關收入中達到 7000 萬美元或 6900 萬美元。它完成了我期望它做的所有事情。我看到它再次翻倍。它不會在 23 年翻倍，但我認為，在 24 年，該業務可以翻倍。

We're very bullish on what our credit business can do. And we think with both product that we can really drive, hopefully, another doubling of that business won't be again in '23. It's going to take us some time. But we really kind of think that we can kind of make some real progress there. And that's off the back of continuing to build out our capital markets business, which, by the way, I had zero exposure on my balance sheet in terms of hung deals or bad things. So really, really proud of our team and capital markets in terms of how they've operated and operated in a very smart way.

我們非常看好我們的信貸業務可以做什麼。我們認為我們可以真正推動這兩種產品，希望在 23 年不會再出現業務翻倍的情況。這需要我們一些時間。但我們真的有點認為我們可以在那裡取得一些真正的進展。這是在繼續建立我們的資本市場業務的背後，順便說一下，就掛起的交易或壞事而言，我的資產負債表上的風險敞口為零。就我們的團隊和資本市場如何以非常聰明的方式運作和運作而言，他們真的非常自豪。

We talked about Fortitude and what it can do. And look, just the strength across the rest of the structured credit as well as a number of new products. And don't forget our opportunistic credit business, which is very bullish and is going strong. So there's a lot of great things in credit and in private equity. Look -- still remain interested in kind of what we can do outside of traditional buyout, which -- look, I actually think our buyout business is amongst one of the best. And with a little bit of good news in some places, we'll be right back to kind of doing what it's always done and think that we're well set up for real progress there.

我們討論了 Fortitude 及其功能。看一下，其餘結構性信貸以及許多新產品的實力。並且不要忘記我們的機會主義信貸業務，它非常看好並且正在走強。所以在信貸和私募股權領域有很多偉大的事情。看 - 仍然對我們在傳統收購之外可以做的事情感興趣，這 - 看，我實際上認為我們的收購業務是最好的之一。在某些地方傳來一點好消息，我們會馬上回到過去做的事情，並認為我們已經做好了在那裡取得真正進展的準備。

And then you just think real estate has just a phenomenal track record. It can add to the picture and see much further growth in real estate. It's too early to really call out kind of what can happen in energy. And -- but I think in infrastructure, you got a nice upside lift kind of there. It will take some time, but it's a nice upside lift. And so I think across the platform, lots of great things and looking forward to what we can collectively do as a team going forward.

然後你就會認為房地產有著驚人的記錄。它可以增加圖片並看到房地產的進一步增長。現在真正指出能源領域會發生什麼還為時過早。而且 - 但我認為在基礎設施方面，你在那裡得到了很好的提升。這需要一些時間，但這是一個很好的上升空間。因此，我認為在整個平台上，有很多很棒的事情，並期待著我們作為一個團隊可以共同做的事情。

Craig, I think as you referenced the term super cycle, as we've continued to pursue this diversification strategy we've been on for quite some time, that term has less and less meaning for us. Yes, we raised closed-end funds. But if you look at the number of significantly large funds across our platform in every different business, we're going to raise significant amounts of capital in every year. And then you add on all the things that Curt mentioned outside of what we had several years ago, whether that's Fortitude or opportunistic credit or open-ended products. And we see opportunities to raise a lot of capital, which gives us conviction and confidence that we're going to be able to grow FRE in a very substantial way over time.

克雷格，我認為當你提到超級週期這個詞時，隨著我們繼續追求我們已經實施了很長一段時間的多元化戰略，這個詞對我們來說意義越來越小。是的，我們募集了封閉式基金。但是，如果你看看我們平台上每個不同業務的大型基金數量，我們每年都會籌集大量資金。然後你加上 Curt 在幾年前提到的所有東西，無論是 Fortitude 還是機會主義信貸或開放式產品。我們看到了籌集大量資金的機會，這讓我們堅信，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠以非常可觀的方式發展 FRE。

And just to reiterate what we said during our prepared remarks, we've grown FRE at 34% CAGR over the past 5 years, and that's not an accident. It's because of this process. And as we look forward, we're very hopeful, and we have a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to deliver great results too.

重申一下我們在準備好的發言中所說的話，在過去 5 年中，我們的 FRE 以 34% 的複合年增長率增長，這並非偶然。就是因為這個過程。當我們展望未來時，我們充滿希望，並且我們非常有信心我們也能夠取得出色的成果。

Our next question comes from Michael Cyprys from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Cyprys。

Maybe just circling back to some of the fundraising commentary just as you guys are out on the road meeting with LPs. I was hoping you might be able to comment on pricing trends. To what extent have fees and pricing come up in your discussions with LPs? How are overall economics evolving on the newer slate of funds relative to the predecessor funds? When you look across management fees, discounts for size, recycling provisions, step-downs, reimbursement for expenses, all of those sort of pieces, what sort of changes, if any, are you seeing in the marketplace?

也許就像你們在路上與 LP 會面時，只是繞回一些籌款評論。我希望您能就定價趨勢發表評論。在您與 LP 的討論中，費用和定價在多大程度上被提及？相對於之前的基金，新基金的整體經濟發展如何？當你查看管理費、尺寸折扣、回收規定、降級、費用報銷等所有這些方面時，你在市場上看到了什麼樣的變化（如果有的話）？

Michael, it's Curt. I don't think that we're seeing anything significant one way or the other as we are on the road talking to people. It's -- the stuff that was always kind of the case still remains the case, which is access to co-investment and the like. And so that's really where more of the discussions really go as we're talking to LPs and fundraising.

邁克爾，這是柯特。我不認為我們在路上與人交談時會以某種方式看到任何重要的東西。它是 - 一直都是這種情況的東西仍然是這種情況，即獲得共同投資等。因此，當我們與 LP 和籌款交談時，這確實是更多討論真正進行的地方。

And maybe just a follow-up to that, maybe more on the portfolio company side, just around performance, revenue, EBITDA growth trends. Maybe you can just give a little bit of commentary there. What are you seeing, margin trends, inflationary pressures, tight labor conditions? How is the portfolio adapting to the sort of backdrop? And if you're able to quantify any of that, that would be helpful, too.

也許只是對此的後續行動，也許更多是在投資組合公司方面，圍繞業績、收入、EBITDA 增長趨勢。也許你可以在那裡發表一些評論。你看到了什麼，利潤率趨勢、通脹壓力、緊張的勞動條件？投資組合如何適應這種背景？如果你能夠量化其中的任何一個，那也會有所幫助。

Look, the portfolio grew really nicely first half of the year, in particular. The rate of growth decreased second half of the year but was still growing. So over '22 EBITDA was growing, I want to say, on average about 10%, particularly over the Corporate Private Equity, broadly speaking, portfolio. And so optimistic around kind of what that can continue to do.

看，尤其是今年上半年，投資組合的增長非常好。下半年增速有所下降，但仍在增長。所以我想說，22 年以上的 EBITDA 平均增長了 10%，特別是在企業私募股權投資組合中。對可以繼續做的事情如此樂觀。

Across many of the businesses, we saw continued pricing power that enabled that to occur, to be seen in terms of how strong that pricing power continues and kind of inflationary pressure and how that works against us. And then -- but the good news is, I will say that the way we've constructed the portfolios, we're generally in good shape. So again, cash flowing businesses, real estate is not in the bad areas. So almost nothing in office or hotel or retail. So again, very good construction across both our private equity, inclusive of real estate.

在許多企業中，我們看到持續的定價權使這種情況得以發生，從定價權持續的強大程度和通脹壓力的種類以及它如何對我們不利的方面來看。然後 - 但好消息是，我會說我們構建投資組合的方式，我們總體上處於良好狀態。再次重申，現金流業務，房地產不在不好的地方。所以在辦公室、酒店或零售店幾乎沒有。再一次，我們的私募股權建設非常好，包括房地產。

Our next question comes from Gerry O'Hara with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Gerry O'Hara。

We've covered a fair amount of ground here this morning. But maybe just kind of touching base on the expense side and clearly saw a pretty meaningful step-up in G&A year-over-year. Obviously, a lot of growth initiatives going on investing in the business. But perhaps, Curt, if you could give us a little sense of how to think about that as we look to the next 12 to 24 months?

今天早上我們已經討論了相當多的內容。但也許只是在費用方面有點觸及基礎，並且清楚地看到 G&A 的同比增長非常有意義。顯然，許多增長計劃都在投資業務。但也許，柯特，你能否讓我們了解一下在我們展望未來 12 到 24 個月時如何考慮這個問題？

Thanks, Gerry, for the question, and good to hear from you. Look, in a year where I can grow FRE 40% over the prior year, I'll take it however I can get it. And if that means investing in the business, that's a great outcome to generate 40% FRE margin. With respect to cash and with respect to G&A, if you look at it on a quarterly basis, Q4 versus Q4, pretty much flat. Yes, on an annual basis up. But I actually think that we're very focused on -- I know that we're very focused on managing costs and managing where we deploy our excess expenditures, and it's really around investing in new product development, in distribution and investing for the future.

謝謝 Gerry 提出這個問題，很高興收到你的來信。看，在我可以比上一年增長 40% 的 FRE 的一年裡，我會接受它，但我能得到它。如果這意味著對業務進行投資，那麼產生 40% 的 FRE 利潤率是一個很好的結果。關於現金和 G&A，如果你按季度看，第四季度與第四季度相比，幾乎持平。是的，每年上漲。但實際上我認為我們非常專注於 - 我知道我們非常專注於管理成本和管理我們部署超額支出的地方，它實際上是圍繞投資新產品開發、分銷和未來投資.

There are clearly things that we're making investments in that will benefit us '24, '25, '26 to enable long-term growth, and things like retail and private wealth really matter for that, less so in terms of what it does to '23 FRE.

很明顯，我們正在投資的一些事情將使我們在 24 歲、25 歲、26 歲受益，從而實現長期增長，而零售和私人財富等事物確實對此很重要，但就其作用而言則不那麼重要到'23 FRE。

Our next question comes from Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered as well. But I just want to come back to the -- actually to Investor Day targets that you laid out in '21. You're tracking ahead of those targets already with the exception of FRE, which I guess you're on the way towards given its 40% target for 2024. But just wanted to get your conviction around reaching that level? Or is that going to be more of a Harvey decision in terms of potential new investments that you might be making and rather -- you'd rather just focus, like you said, on FRE growth?

我的大部分問題也已被提出和回答。但我只想回到——實際上是回到你在 21 年制定的投資者日目標。除了 FRE 之外，您已經提前實現了這些目標，鑑於其 2024 年 40% 的目標，我猜您正在朝著這個目標邁進。但只是想讓您對達到該水平有信心嗎？或者，就您可能進行的潛在新投資而言，這更像是 Harvey 的決定——您更願意像您所說的那樣專注於 FRE 增長？

Brian, good question. And look, I'm incredibly proud of what Carlyle and the entire team has achieved '21, '22 because we set out a target of $1.6 billion for '24, $800 million of FRE, $800 million of carry for $1.6 billion of pretax fee. We've swapped that from an outcome perspective already in '21 and in '22. So FRE at $834 million this past year, 40% up, I care much more about FRE dollars and growth in FRE dollars than I care about margins.

布賴恩，好問題。看，我為 Carlyle 和整個團隊在 21 年和 22 年取得的成就感到無比自豪，因為我們為 24 年設定了 16 億美元的目標，8 億美元的 FRE，8 億美元的收益和 16 億美元的稅前費用.我們已經在 21 年和 22 年從結果的角度交換了這一點。因此，去年 FRE 為 8.34 億美元，增長 40%，我更關心 FRE 美元和 FRE 美元的增長，而不是利潤率。

Look, margin is a tool to generate FRE dollars. And so whatever we can do to create more dollars, one tool is creating -- is by margin. But however, I can get it, I'm going to get it. And you're right, we set a target of 40% of FRE margin by 2024. '23, I think, will probably be more on the flattish size to '22, which will then cause pressure for '24 to get to that number. I still think we can do it. Look, we grew from 33% to 37%, '21 to '22. So there's no reason we can't do that in '23 to '24, but time will tell. And look, again, it's about growing FRE dollars. And so if I can get the FRE dollars going in the right way, that's what I'm going to do.

看，保證金是一種產生 FRE 美元的工具。因此，無論我們能做些什麼來創造更多的美元，一種工具正在創造——就是通過保證金。但是，無論如何，我能得到它，我會得到它。你是對的，我們設定了到 2024 年 FRE 利潤率達到 40% 的目標。'23，我認為，可能會更接近於 '22，這將導致 '24 達到這個數字的壓力.我仍然認為我們可以做到。看，我們從 33% 增長到 37%，21 年增長到 22 年。所以我們沒有理由不能在 23 到 24 年做到這一點，但時間會證明一切。再次看，這是關於增加 FRE 美元。因此，如果我能讓 FRE 美元以正確的方式使用，那就是我要做的。

That's loud and clear. And then maybe just one last one. Just I guess you talked a lot about fundraising and the headwinds obviously on the private equity side. Maybe if you could just characterize what you're hearing from LPs and other investors in terms of -- now having Harvey on Board and how much of a ballast that is to confidence in the franchise? Or was that not so much of a headwind anyway, it was really just the headwinds in the overall industry and less related to your -- to the leadership?

這是響亮而清晰的。然後也許只是最後一個。我猜你談了很多關於籌資和私募股權方面的不利因素。也許如果你能描述一下你從有限合夥人和其他投資者那裡聽到的——現在哈維加入董事會，以及對特許經營的信心有多大的鎮流器？還是這不是那麼大的逆風，它真的只是整個行業的逆風，與你的 - 與領導層的關係不大？

This is Bill. In my discussions with the investors, and I was in Europe and I was in Asia and Japan. I would say, that I didn't see anybody who didn't invest with us because I was the Interim CEO, and we didn't have a permanent CEO, and Harvey hadn't been named at that time. There were perhaps some people who delayed and want to think about the decision and wanted to know who it's going to be before they committed. But I don't think there was any -- I couldn't point to any investors said they didn't do it because we didn't have the CEO. I think they may have -- they didn't do it now because we didn't have the CEO, and we'll see what happens when the CEO is named.

這是比爾。在與投資者的討論中，我在歐洲，在亞洲和日本。我會說，我沒有看到任何人不和我們一起投資，因為我是臨時 CEO，我們沒有固定 CEO，而 Harvey 當時還沒有被任命。也許有些人推遲了，想考慮一下這個決定，想知道在他們做出決定之前會是誰。但我不認為有任何 - 我不能指出任何投資者說他們沒有這樣做是因為我們沒有首席執行官。我認為他們可能已經 - 他們現在沒有這樣做，因為我們沒有 CEO，我們將看看任命 CEO 後會發生什麼。

I do think a far bigger factor than the CEO is the market. And the CEO is -- most of the fund investors, they care much, much more about the performance of their fund and the individual deals than they care about who the CEO is. So although I'm very excited about Harvey, and I think he's going to be fabulous, the market, I think, is a more important factor in terms of growth in the PE fundraising.

我確實認為比 CEO 更重要的因素是市場。 CEO 是——大多數基金投資者，他們更關心他們的基金和個人交易的表現，而不是他們關心誰是 CEO。因此，儘管我對哈維感到非常興奮，而且我認為他會很棒，但我認為，就私募股權融資的增長而言，市場是一個更重要的因素。

Next question comes from Adam Beatty with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Adam Beatty。

Just one question. It's got 3 parts about the fundraising environment, not necessarily fund specific, but just kind of what you're seeing. Number one, you mentioned LP liquidity needs. So I'm curious what's driving those, whether it's slower monetization or tighter financing or something else? Number two, big theme last year was denominator effect. How far along are LPs in terms of realigning around that and kind of getting past that? And number three is the reopening of LP budgets with the New Year, is it similar to what you've seen in past years or better or worse?

只有一個問題。它有關於籌款環境的 3 個部分，不一定是特定基金，但就是你所看到的。第一，你提到了有限合夥人的流動性需求。所以我很好奇是什麼推動了這些，無論是貨幣化速度變慢還是融資收緊還是其他原因？第二，去年的大主題是分母效應。 LPs 在重新調整和克服它方面走了多遠？第三是 LP 預算在新年重新開放，它是否與您在過去幾年看到的情況相似，或者更好還是更糟？

Adam, it's Curt. I'll start and then Bill can add in. Look, it's always difficult to generalize these types of questions across all the different investor classes and everyone. So everyone just take that caveat very seriously as I attempt to address some of this. LP liquidity needs in general were really due to the fact that a number of funds invested and deployed capital very quickly across the industry and have come back for greater needs faster than expectations.

亞當，這是柯特。我先開始，然後比爾可以補充。看，總是很難在所有不同的投資者類別和每個人中概括這些類型的問題。所以當我試圖解決其中的一些問題時，每個人都非常認真地對待這個警告。一般來說，LP 流動性需求實際上是由於許多基金在整個行業中非常迅速地投資和部署資本，並且比預期更快地回來滿足更大的需求。

And then with the slowing down of the equity capital markets in particular, just as we're talking about buyout in general, that has put some liquidity needs on some investors, not necessarily all. I mean, there are parts of the world, Middle East, in particular, where I don't think that those needs are as apparent as in other places.

然後，尤其是隨著股權資本市場的放緩，正如我們在談論一般的收購一樣，這給一些投資者帶來了一些流動性需求，不一定是全部。我的意思是，世界上有些地方，尤其是中東，我認為這些需求不像其他地方那樣明顯。

On the denominator effect, look, there were some green shoots early in the year in terms of potential changes with that, some resetting. I think that, that will get better over the course of the year. But again, it comes back to each individual investor type and how they're viewing it. And so I think that, that will play out. And also, again, all investors are going to be seeking yield. And I think alternative assets is a great place to seek yield. This industry has proven well and it's just generally done better. And so it's more about getting them all access to this.

關於分母效應，看，就潛在變化而言，今年年初有一些綠芽，一些重置。我認為，這將在這一年中變得更好。但同樣，它又回到了每個投資者類型以及他們如何看待它。所以我認為，這將會發揮作用。同樣，所有投資者都將尋求收益。而且我認為另類資產是尋求收益的好地方。這個行業已經證明很好，而且通常做得更好。因此，更多的是讓他們都能訪問它。

And then the new year, yes, that has an impact on, again, certain LPs in their allocations and how they work with their own investment committees. And yes, it is an impact for some. But again, in terms of quantifying on a broader basis, really tough to kind of do. So I don't know if Bill is going to add anything?

然後是新的一年，是的，這再次影響了某些 LP 在他們的分配中以及他們如何與自己的投資委員會合作。是的，這對某些人有影響。但同樣，就更廣泛的量化而言，確實很難做到。所以我不知道 Bill 是否要添加任何內容？

Well, I would say, I can't break it down by category in terms of what the impact is going to be. I think it's going to be better than it was last year. I do think that the LP liquidity creates an opportunity for Carlyle. We have a big solutions business of about $70 billion. And both in secondaries, primaries, co-investment, I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity there, perhaps in some ways, offsetting some of the primary opportunity as LPs either reposition their portfolio or need liquidity for some reason, as Curt pointed out, not so much in some parts of the world, but in others.

好吧，我會說，我無法根據影響將如何按類別對其進行細分。我認為它會比去年更好。我確實認為 LP 流動性為凱雷創造了機會。我們擁有約 700 億美元的大型解決方案業務。在二級市場、初級市場、共同投資中，我認為那裡會有很多機會，也許在某些方面，抵消了一些初級機會，因為 LP 要么重新定位他們的投資組合，要么出於某種原因需要流動性，正如 Curt 指出的那樣不是在世界的某些地方，而是在其他地方。

And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Daniel Harris for ready for closing remarks.

我現在不會提出任何進一步的問題。我想將電話轉回 Daniel Harris 以準備結束髮言。

Thank you all for your time and interest this morning. We look forward to talking with you again next quarter. Should you have any follow-up questions after the call, feel free to reach out to Investor Relations at any time. Thank you.

感謝大家今天早上的時間和興趣。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。如果您在通話後有任何後續問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。