塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2022年第一季財報電話會議及網路直播。 （操作員指示）溫馨提示：本次會議正在錄音。現在，我想將電話會議交給投資者關係副總裁Brandon Ayache。謝謝。您可以開始發言了。

Thank you, Daryl. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese Corporation distributed its first quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

謝謝，達裡爾。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2022年第一季業績電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁布蘭登‧阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache)。今天與我一同參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk 和財務長 Scott Richardson。塞拉尼斯公司已透過美國商業資訊 (Business Wire) 發布其第一季業績報告，並於昨天下午在投資者關係網站上發布了關於本季度的預先準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as the prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。今天的演示還將包含前瞻性陳述。請閱讀新聞稿末尾關於前瞻性陳述的警示性措辭以及準備好的評論。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

Because we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll now open the line directly for your questions. Daryl, please go ahead and open the line for questions.

由於我們昨天發布了準備好的評論，現在我們將直接開放提問熱線。達裡爾，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

I was just curious on the Engineered Materials' EBIT guidance. I was wondering what's baked in there in terms of volume sequentially. I mean you're pretty clear about the auto pull-forward, but wonder if there's any other puts and takes around that, assuming you're getting incremental pricing, I assume you're assuming some volume moderation for 2Q. And then similarly, for the rest of the year, thinking about how you're kind of framing up volume expectations for auto end markets and otherwise.

我只是對工程材料部門的息稅前利潤（EBIT）指引感到好奇。我想知道其中的環比銷量預期是怎麼樣的。您很清楚汽車業務的提前，但我想知道是否還有其他利弊。假設您獲得增量定價，我假設您假設第二季度的銷售量會有所放緩。同樣，對於今年剩餘時間，您如何制定汽車終端市場和其他市場的銷售預期？

Yes. Thanks, Josh. As we look at full year, so if we look at '21 to '22, we are assuming some volume in there. Some of that is for Santoprene, but there's a couple of percent growth in base business as well. And that really comes about as we see improvements in '22 versus '21 and a lot -- the availability of a lot of our raw materials. So things like glass fiber, things like flame retardants, even some resins that we called out last year. Now that we are getting better supplies of those, we're able to increase our volumes, and that really accounts for the base volume increase.

是的，謝謝，喬希。我們著眼於全年，所以如果我們展望2021年至2022年，我們預計會有一定程度的銷售成長。其中一部分是山都平（Santoprene）的銷售量，但基礎業務也成長了幾個百分點。這主要是因為我們看到2022年相比2021年有所改善，而且我們許多原料的供應也更加充足。例如玻璃纖維、阻燃劑，甚至是我們去年提到的一些樹脂。現在這些材料的供應情況有所改善，我們能夠增加銷量，這才是基礎銷售成長的關鍵。

And as I said, we do have volume increase in there as well for Santoprene. I would say we called out auto to be flat year-on-year, so we're not assuming a large increase in volume to auto, although we do continue to see margin growth in materials into auto as we continue to high-grade the materials we sell into auto. But I would say really strength across all sectors, all of them growing a little bit in that volume.

正如我所說，我們的山都平（Santoprene）銷售確實有所增長。我們先前預測汽車用橡膠的銷售量與去年同期持平，因此我們不會假設汽車用橡膠的銷售量會大幅成長。不過，隨著我們持續提升汽車用橡膠的品質，汽車用橡膠的利潤率確實有所成長。但我認為所有部門的業績都表現強勁，所有部門的銷售量都有所成長。

And then I guess just specifically on 2Q and that sequential volume move, are you thinking that volumes are up or down into 2Q given some of the macro headwinds?

然後我想，具體到第二季和連續交易量變動，考慮到一些宏觀不利因素，您是否認為第二季的交易量會上升還是下降？

Yes. I think in Q2, we're expecting a little less volume. Again, we called out that we had about what we think was $10 million to $15 million of volume pull forward from 2Q to 1Q. Again, I think we called it out in our notes. Really, that was driven by demand being down in 1Q in terms of auto builds but people wanting to go ahead and rebuild inventory. You might recall that we had said fourth quarter, we saw a lot of inventory reduction as people went to end of the year. And so we think people were just rebuilding inventory in 1Q. And unless we see a rapid demand, which we're not forecasting for auto in 2Q, then we would expect to see that $10 million to $15 million not show up in the second quarter, if you will.

是的。我認為我們預計第二季的銷量會略有下降。我們之前也提到過，第一季的銷售量比第二季減少了約1000萬到1500萬美元。我想我們在報告裡也提到了這一點。實際上，這是因為第一季汽車生產需求下降，但人們希望補充庫存。你可能還記得，我們​​之前提到過，隨著年底臨近，第四季庫存大幅減少。所以我們認為人們在第一季只是在補充庫存。除非我們看到快速的需求（我們預測第二季的汽車需求不會出現這種情況），否則我們預計第二季不會出現這1000萬到1500萬美元的銷售量。

Our next questions come from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Does DuPont's M&M business improve your ESG profile or keep it the same? And can you explain -- can you maybe talk a little bit about nylon recycling, especially at the end of life in applications like autos and what role will Celanese play?

杜邦的M&M業務會提升你們的ESG形象，還是會維持不變？您能否解釋一下——能否談談尼龍的回收利用，尤其是在汽車等應用的報廢階段，以及塞拉尼斯將扮演什麼角色？

Thanks, P.J. On DuPont, our assessment so far, and obviously, we have more learning to do, but our sense on DuPont is their ESG profile is similar to ours. They've had similar efforts in place to reduce the footprint of their facilities. They have similar efforts in place to purchase renewable energy for their electricity needs. We know they've also worked on recycling and making available recycled materials to those customers that want them. So I would say I don't think they're necessarily far ahead of where we were in Celanese but I also don't think they're behind.

謝謝，P.J. 關於杜邦，我們目前的評估是，顯然我們還有很多需要學習的地方，但我們感覺杜邦的ESG狀況與我們相似。他們也採取了類似的措施來減少設施的碳足跡。他們也採取了類似的措施來購買再生能源以滿足電力需求。我們知道他們也致力於回收利用，並向需要的客戶提供再生材料。所以我認為他們不一定比塞拉尼斯領先很多，但我也不認為他們落後。

So I think we have a good common platform to work from. Obviously, there's going to be some things we find they're doing better. There's going to be some things we were doing better. So I think it will really just help accelerate our journey.

所以我認為我們擁有一個良好的共同工作平台。顯然，我們會發現有些事情他們做得更好。也有些事情我們做得更好。所以我認為這真的會加速我們的進程。

When it comes to recycled nylon, the challenge has always been how do you find high enough quality nylon so that the material you provide can meet the customer specifications. So in Celanese, we've done that by securing airbag scrappage, which is pretty consistent quality. We use that in Europe to make a recycled nylon. In India, where we recycle fishing nets from the ocean and clean those, and we make that into a recycled nylon. So for other uses, say, in auto, the challenge is really how do you collect it and how do you separate it? Because collection itself is an issue as it is with all recycled materials.

說到再生尼龍，一直以來的挑戰是如何找到足夠高品質的尼龍，以便我們所提供的材料可以滿足客戶的要求。因此，在塞拉尼斯，我們透過確保安全氣囊廢料的品質相當穩定來做到這一點。我們在歐洲用這些廢棄物來製造再生尼龍。在印度，我們從海洋中回收漁網並清洗乾淨，然後將其製成再生尼龍。因此，對於其他用途，例如汽車產業，真正的挑戰在於如何收集和分類這些廢棄物？因為收集本身就是一個問題，就像所有再生材料一樣。

But then the issue is in auto and other applications, a lot of times, they're put together with other materials or difficult to separate. I think it's a challenge we have as an industry and one we're just starting to look at. Some of our more recent discussions around that is we've been talking to customers not necessarily in auto, but also some other applications saying, "Hey, if you could do this entire component out of one material, it may cost you a few cents more but it would make it more recyclable." And so I think that's what we're going to have to look at going forward is how do we work with our customers to maybe simplify the amount of polymer, the types of polymers being used inside an application to make it easier to recover and recycle those materials.

但問題在於，在汽車和其他應用中，它們很多時候會與其他材料混合在一起，或者難以分離。我認為這是我們這個行業面臨的挑戰，也是我們才剛開始關注的。我們最近圍繞這個問題進行了一些討論，我們不僅與汽車行業的客戶溝通，也與一些其他應用領域的客戶溝通，他們說：「嘿，如果你能用一種材料來製作整個部件，成本可能會高出幾美分，但回收利用率會更高。」 因此，我認為我們未來需要研​​究的是，如何與客戶合作，簡化應用中使用的聚合物用量和聚合物類型，從而更容易利用這些聚合物類型。

Great. And one quick question on VAM. You mentioned that things were really tight with 3 out of 5 plants down in North America, I believe. How does this VAM situation normalize in 2Q and second half?

好的。關於VAM，我還有一個簡短的問題。您提到情況非常緊張，我記得北美五家工廠中有三家停工了。 VAM的情況在第二季和下半年會如何恢復正常？

Yes. So we expect that to normalize in second half -- or sorry, in the second quarter. Two of those VAM plants were ours, so 1 turnaround in Clear Lake as well as the turnaround in Bay City. So we know those are coming back up and we should expect them to be back to full rates in the second quarter. So we expect that to improve. What that should do, though, is increase demand then for acetic acid, which provide a little bit of support for acetic acid pricing going forward, especially with China acetic acid pricing.

是的。我們預計下半年——或者說，第二季——情況會恢復正常。其中兩家VAM工廠是我們自己的，分別是Clear Lake和Bay City的工廠。我們知道這些工廠的產能正在回升，預計第二季將恢復滿載生產。我們預計情況會有所改善。但這應該會增加對醋酸的需求，這將為未來的醋酸價格提供一些支撐，尤其是在中國醋酸價格上漲的情況下。

And VAM price continues to be high partly because of that but also just because of a big demand for VAM. And I think you can see that in other people's reports that are really calling out strong second quarters as well as strong second halves in some of the big VAM consumers. So I would expect the supply-demand situation to normalize second quarter, which really just should help us with acetic -- holding up acetic acid pricing.

VAM價格持續高企，部分原因在於此，但也源自於VAM需求旺盛。我想您可以從其他公司的報告中看到這一點，這些報告都預示著第二季度以及一些VAM大型消費國下半年的強勁表現。因此，我預計第二季供需情勢將恢復正常，這應該有助於維持醋酸價格。

Our next questions come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I think you used to say that your financing costs for the Mobility acquisition were about 3%. How much higher are they now or how much higher do you foresee them being?

您以前好像說過，收購Mobility的融資成本大約是3%。現在這個數字高多少？或者您預計會高多少？

Yes, Jeff, I think we're still working through that. Obviously, I mean, benchmark rates have moved up. A lot's going to depend upon where things are at when we go to market. It also is we're working on things in terms of how we want to optimally structure in terms of a regional debt mix. We're going to look at maturities and kind of optimize that as well.

是的，傑夫，我認為我們還在努力解決這個問題。顯然，我的意思是，基準利率已經上調了。很多事情都取決於我們進入市場時的情況。此外，我們也正在研究如何優化區域債務組合的結構。我們將研究債務期限，並對其進行某種優化。

So I think while we do expect to be higher than the 3% if we were to go to market right now, I think the overall interest cost, we believe, is not going to be materially different. With the higher cash flow, we do expect to come in with lower debt at closing is the current expectation. And then with bringing the synergies forward a bit, in year 1, we ultimately believe, from an accretion perspective, we're going to be at or above what we had originally signaled earlier this year.

因此，我認為，雖然我們確實預期如果現在上市，利率會高於3%，但我認為整體利息成本不會有實質差異。隨著現金流的增加，我們目前的預期是，交易結束時的債務會更低。然後，如果將協同效應提前一點，在第一年，我們最終相信，從增值的角度來看，我們的業績將達到或超過我們今年早些時候最初預示的水平。

You have a big acetal chain expansion coming on in the United States next year. Are you taking steps now or beginning to take steps to think about the curtailment of your offshore capacity? And how do you think about that?

貴公司明年將在美國大規模擴張縮醛鏈。貴公司現在是否正在採取措施，或正在開始考慮削減海外產能？您對此有何看法？

So the answer is we're not thinking about taking steps on our offshore capacity. We really like having the footprint where we have 3 different raw material providers, so coal in China, oil in Singapore and gas in the U.S. We think having that global flexibility is very helpful. We really saw the benefit of that during the freeze in 2021. So currently, we do not have any plans to alter our footprint consistent with the expansion of Clear Lake.

所以答案是，我們沒有考慮擴大我們的海上產能。我們非常樂意擁有三家不同的原料供應商，即中國的煤炭、新加坡的石油和美國的天然氣。我們認為這種全球彈性非常有幫助。我們在2021年凍結期間真正看到了這種靈活性的好處。因此，目前我們沒有任何計劃根據Clear Lake的擴張來調整我們的佈局。

Our next questions come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Scott, I wanted to ask you, your prepared comments talk about you're looking at incremental ways to improve your own free cash flow, which is already kind of best-in-class in terms of conversion. But I'm then wondering, as you look at the M&M acquisition, what did you think of their cash conversion? And have you already identified kind of pre-close that there's going to be opportunities to improve the free cash flow generation of that asset as well?

史考特，我想問一下，你準備好的評論提到，你正在尋找漸進式的方法來改善自己的自由現金流，就轉換率而言，你的自由現金流已經是業內最佳了。但我想知道，當你回顧M&M收購案時，你對他們的現金轉換率有何看法？你是否已經在交易完成前就確定了可以改善該資產自由現金流產生的機會？

Yes. I mean, I think one of the big differences between the asset portfolios, obviously, is the M&M business having a really strong localized presence in Asia, particularly outside of China. When we put the networks together, we think that's going to be a really good opportunity over time to optimize the supply chain. And that should give us a really nice inventory benefit over time. So I think that's probably the #1 focus area, I would say, Vincent, as we get the businesses integrated. It's focusing really on optimizing the manufacturing footprint between regions, which hopefully will allow us to have less product on the water. We've had our own organic investments at Celanese going into Asia to help with that, but we do think the combined portfolio should give us some ample opportunity there.

是的。我的意思是，我認為資產組合之間的一大區別顯然在於M&M業務在亞洲，尤其是在中國以外地區擁有非常強大的本地化業務。我們認為，當我們整合這些網路時，隨著時間的推移，這將是一個優化供應鏈的絕佳機會。隨著時間的推移，這將為我們帶來非常可觀的庫存效益。所以，文森特，我認為這可能是我們整合業務的首要重點領域。重點在於優化各區域之間的製造佈局，希望這能減少我們產品在海上的運輸。塞拉尼斯本身在亞洲進行了內部投資，以幫助實現這一目標，但我們確實認為合併後的投資組合應該能為我們在那裡帶來充足的機會。

Okay. And then maybe just in terms of Santoprene, it sounds like the synergy is going very well there, but I didn't -- I don't think I read that you were increasing them. Is it possible you'll wind up increasing the synergies there?

好的。那麼，就山都平（Santoprene）而言，聽起來協同效應似乎很好，但我沒看到你們在增加產量。你們最終有可能增加綜效嗎？

Look, I think that's a good possibility. I think we're kind of running at double the rate of synergy capture here early on in the integration. That's good because that pulls forward cash flow earlier, which is good from an NPV value. But I think as with all of these acquisitions, as we get into them and as we really learn the details, not everything plays out the way we think. But in general, we always find more to go after and more opportunities that we didn't identify at the time of the deal.

嗯，我認為這很有可能。我認為在整合初期，我們的協同效應捕獲率幾乎翻了一番。這很好，因為這可以更早拉動現金流，從淨現值（NPV）來看，這很好。但我認為，就像所有這些收購一樣，隨著我們深入其中，真正了解細節，並非所有事情都會按照我們的想法發展。但總的來說，我們總是能發現更多值得追求的東西，以及更多在交易時未曾發現的機會。

So I don't have an updated number for you at this time. But I would say we're definitely, one, optimistic about the timing in which we can deliver the already identified synergies as well as being optimistic about being able to deliver even more synergies over time.

所以目前我還沒有更新的數字。但我要說的是，我們對於能夠實現已確定的協同效應的時間安排絕對樂觀，並且對能夠隨著時間的推移實現更多的協同效應也充滿信心。

Our next questions come from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Really nice start to the year and raised outlook. Just curious in terms of the acetyl chain, always been impressed of how well your team can figure out where to make the most money. So just curious when you think about what they've done in April and where they're sort of allocating their volume heading into 2Q, can you give us a little bit of color on what's driving your EBIT outlook near term?

今年開局確實不錯，而且前景也得到了提升。我對乙醯基鏈產品很感興趣，一直對你們團隊如何精準地找到獲利點印象深刻。所以，我很好奇，考慮到你們四月份的業績，以及第二季的銷售量分配情況，能否稍微介紹一下近期息稅前利潤（EBIT）前景的驅動因素？

Yes. I think if we look at second quarter, industry dynamics probably looked fairly similar to first quarter in that China is still a little congested because of COVID and inability of ships and [banks] to move out in China. We see inventories continue to be high there. And so pricing probably, you can see where it is today. So we see that continuing. We do see some help for acetic acid pricing with the VAM returning into operation, which we have called out for first quarter. But that counteracted with everything else, so again, you can see where the pricing is today.

是的。我認為，如果我們看一下第二季度，行業動態可能與第一季非常相似，因為中國仍然由於新冠疫情以及船舶和[銀行]無法出貨而略顯擁擠。我們看到那裡的庫存持續高企。因此，價格可能已經反映在今天的水平上。我們認為這種情況會持續下去。隨著VAM系統恢復運行，我們確實看到醋酸價格上漲，正如我們之前預測的那樣，第一季醋酸價格將上漲。但這與其他因素抵消了，所以，你仍然可以從今天的價格走勢中看到一些端倪。

But we do continue to see really good demand and really good pricing in the Western Hemisphere. That hasn't changed. The congestion in China obviously keeps some material flowing out, so there continues to be high demand in the Western Hemisphere and we continue to see high demand for VAM and the downstream derivatives. And we're going into the summer season, which is typically an even higher period for those molecules. So I'd say, on average, what we saw in the first quarter, probably similar profile into where things go, but we do have moderating prices in China, which will also drive second quarter outlook.

但我們確實看到西半球的需求和價格持續保持強勁。這一點沒有改變。中國的交通擁堵顯然阻礙了部分原料的外流，因此西半球的需求持續旺盛，我們也看到對VAM及其下游衍生物的需求持續旺盛。而且我們即將進入夏季，這通常是這些分子價格上漲的時期。因此，我認為，平均而言，我們在第一季看到的情況可能與第一季類似，但中國的價格確實有所緩和，這也將影響第二季的前景。

Got it. And then I apologize if I missed this. Scott, did you mention when you think you will close the financing? Is there some flexibility to do it earlier versus later?

明白了。如果我漏掉了這一點，我很抱歉。史考特，你有沒有提到你預計什麼時候完成融資？提前或延後融資有什麼彈性嗎？

Yes, we'll have flexibility, Mike. I mean right now, we're going to look at where the market is at and when we think it's going to be the most opportunistic time to go. But right now, we're still planning on sometime this summer.

是的，我們會有靈活性，麥克。我的意思是，現在我們會觀察市場狀況，看看什麼時候才是最佳入市時機。但目前，我們仍在計劃今年夏天的某個時候。

Our next questions come from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Can you -- would you sort of take us through what's going on in China? Obviously, a lot going on with the curtailments last year that affected acetic acid and then the Olympics and so on and now China COVID. How do you sort of see the market evolving in context of some chatter about Chinese stimulus, et cetera? I guess what are you seeing on a real-time basis?

您能否向我們介紹一下中國目前的情況？顯然，去年醋酸減產、奧運等等，以及現在的新冠疫情，都發生了許多變化。在有關中國刺激計劃等討論的背景下，您如何看待市場的發展？您即時觀察到的情況是什麼？

Yes. Let me start with COVID. We haven't seen any, I would say, any significant direct impact from COVID. Obviously, some of our folks have been locked down in Shanghai. They've had to go back to working from home. We have an RDP plant near Shanghai that's been shut down for a few weeks. We've been able to cover that in our network. So I'd say the direct impacts have been pretty small. I would say we've had more impact due to the issues around warehouses and logistics, and if you see the pictures of Shanghai Harbor, just materials not getting in and getting out.

是的。我先從新冠疫情說起。我認為，我們目前還沒有看到任何重大的直接影響。當然，我們上海的一些員工被隔離了，不得不在家工作。我們在上海附近的一家可再生粉（RDP）工廠已經停工幾週了。我們的網路覆蓋了那裡。所以我認為直接影響相當小。我認為我們受到的影響更大，是因為倉庫和物流方面的問題。如果你看上海港的照片，你會發現物資進出不暢。

Now Nanjing, where we're basically located, that's been fine. We've been able to get things in and out. But I'd say it's a secondary impact, as our customers' inventories are building, they can't get products to export. In some cases, they can't get products imported in that they need. So it's just -- it's slowed things down a bit in China.

目前，我們南京的工廠基本上狀況良好。我們的貨物進出正常。但我認為這是次要影響，因為我們的客戶庫存不斷增加，他們無法獲得產品出口。在某些情況下，他們無法進口所需的產品。所以，這確實拖慢了中國的業務發展。

That said, we are monitoring the impact on our operations. They have been really minimal to date, any impact that we've had, so we've not built anything into our guidance, assuming further slowdown in China. And that's supported right now by our order books, which continue to be very strong as we look into the second quarter.

話雖如此，我們正在監控對我們營運的影響。迄今為止，這些影響微乎其微，因此我們尚未將任何影響納入業績預期，假設中國經濟進一步放緩。目前，我們的訂單量支撐了這個預期，展望第二季度，訂單量依然非常強勁。

Got you. And then on the EM segment, I think you're guiding towards the EBIT at the highest -- higher end of the original guidance. But really 1Q was a partial pull forward from 2Q as well. So I guess what's driving that upgraded view specific to EM operating profit for the year?

明白了。關於新興市場（EM）部門，我認為您預測的息稅前利潤（EBIT）將達到最初指引的最高值—更高水準。但實際上，第一季的息稅前利潤也比第二季提早。那麼，是什麼促使您對今年新興市場營業利潤的預期有所提升呢？

Yes. I think -- I mean, if you look at it, call it a $10 million pull forward, that would have said we would have had a $200 million 1Q, which means that we'd have a $200 million second quarter if that falls in the second quarter. So $800 million is kind of just -- we're not seeing a lot of seasonality these days in EM. It's pretty -- everything is pretty full. Demand is high. So we're expecting that to continue through the second half.

是的。我想——我的意思是，如果你把它算作1000萬美元的提前量，那就意味著我們第一季會有2億美元的收入，也就是說，如果這個數字落在第二季度，我們第二季度也會有2億美元的收入。所以8億美元只是──我們目前在新興市場沒有看到太多的季節性因素。一切都相當充實。需求很高。所以我們預計這種情況將持續到下半年。

Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty in the second half around COVID, around China, what's going to happen there. Again, we're not seeing that impact yet, so we're not building that into our outlook. A lot of uncertainty around Europe. Again, no direct impact that we're seeing yet. But obviously, if consumer confidence goes down or energy prices continue to rise, we may see changes in our customer profile. So there is some uncertainty in the second half, but I would also say, generally, third quarter tends to be a good quarter for that. So that's on the other side.

顯然，下半年圍繞著新冠疫情和中國局勢存在著許多不確定性，未來會發生什麼事。我們目前還沒有看到這些影響，因此我們不會將其納入我們的展望中。歐洲也存在著許多不確定性。同樣，我們目前還沒有看到直接影響。但顯然，如果消費者信心下降或能源價格繼續上漲，我們的客戶群可能會改變。所以下半年存在一些不確定性，但我也要說，整體而言，第三季的不確定性會比較大。所以，這是另一方面的情況。

And we have forecast automotive flat, and IHS still expects to see automotive growth in the second half. So if we get any growth, that's a counteraction to some of that other uncertainty. So just looking at -- given all that uncertainty in the second half, we're basically saying the second half looks like first half, and that gets us to $800 million.

我們預測汽車業務將持平，但IHS仍預計下半年汽車業務將成長。所以，如果我們實現了成長，那也是對其他一些不確定性的抵銷。考慮到下半年的所有不確定性，我們基本上可以斷言，下半年的業績與上半年類似，這將使我們的銷售額達到8億美元。

Our next questions come from the line of Mike Leithead with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

Lori, could you maybe just -- staying on EM for a minute, can you maybe just talk a little bit more about your ability to outgrow the auto OEM market? And just when you look out over, say, the next year or so, just given your customer mix or even where channel inventory levels are, how would you size or think about your auto volume growth relative to sort of kind of that industry growth rate of auto new builds?

Lori，您可否再談EM，可再多談談你們超越汽車OEM市場的能力？展望未來一年左右，考慮到你們的客戶結構，甚至通路庫存水平，您會如何衡量或考慮你們的汽車銷量增長相對於汽車行業新車銷量增長率的影響？

Yes. Look, it's a great question. And let me just start with a few numbers for first quarter because I think it will help put things in perspective. If you look at global auto builds for the first quarter, they were actually down 7% from Q4, and this is industry data. But a lot of that was in China, like 20% of that was in China, again reflecting the COVID lockdown situation there.

是的。你看，這個問題問得很好。我先從第一季的幾個數字開始，因為我認為這有助於我們更好地理解情況。如果你看一下第一季的全球汽車產量，你會發現它們實際上比第四季下降了7%，這是行業數據。但其中很大一部分來自中國，大約20%來自中國，這再次反映了那裡的新冠疫情封鎖情況。

If you look at where our biggest customers are, they tend to be in the U.S., which actually grew from Q4 to Q1; and in Germany, which also grew. And so that -- you kind of have to look at the various regions and the specific customers to really make sense. So I would say, although we're even outgrowing -- in this case, we outgrew even those segments that we're in, again, we do think a portion of that is pull forward from second quarter into first quarter, just given everybody having low inventories and expecting kind of outsized demand going forward. There's certainly pent-up demand for auto going forward.

如果你看看我們最大的客戶在哪裡，你會發現它們往往在美國，美國市場從第四季度到第一季實際上有所成長；此外，德國市場也出現了成長。所以，你必須考慮不同的地區和具體的客戶才能真正理解。所以，我想說，儘管我們的成長甚至超過了——在這種情況下，我們的成長甚至超過了我們所處的細分市場，但我們確實認為，其中一部分原因是從第二季度提前到第一季度，因為大家都在關注低庫存，並且預期未來需求會大幅增長。未來汽車市場肯定存在被壓抑的需求。

Having said that, though, we generally have been able to outgrow automotive builds as our folks have worked really hard to develop new products, high-margin products for customers for lightweighting, for EVs has been a big push for us in the last few years and really making sure we're getting into those customers that are growing and then our -- as they are developing new designs, new generations of automobiles, that we have a large content in that. So I'd say we do have the ability to grow faster than global auto builds, grow faster even than the segment auto build. And it's really down to our great folks in EM and their ability to innovate and work with our customers to really provide unique solutions.

話雖如此，我們的成長速度總體上還是能夠超越汽車製造業，因為我們的員工非常努力地為客戶開發新產品、高利潤產品，而輕量化和電動汽車在過去幾年裡一直是我們發展的一大動力，我們真正確保了我們能夠接觸到那些正在成長的客戶，然後隨著他們開發新設計、新一代汽車，我們在這方面投入了大量資金。所以我認為我們的成長速度確實能夠超過全球汽車製造業，甚至超過細分汽車製造業。這要歸功於我們電子製造部門的優秀員工，以及他們創新的能力以及與客戶合作提供獨特解決方案的能力。

Great. That is super helpful. And then maybe just second. Like in the prepared remarks, there's a line about your internal initiatives to unlock incremental cash to help with deleveraging. And I think one area touched on was opportunistic divestitures, and I appreciate you probably don't want to front run anything, but any context around size or scale of what you would be looking at would be helpful. And would you consider making another go at potentially monetizing the Acetate Tow business as part of that?

太好了。這非常有幫助。然後也許還有第二個問題。就像準備好的發言稿中提到的那樣，有一行提到了你們內部的舉措，旨在釋放增量現金以幫助去槓桿。我認為其中一個面向是機會性資產剝離，我知道你可能不想搶先行動，但任何關於你所關注的資產規模或規模的背景資訊都會很有幫助。作為其中的一部分，你會考慮再次嘗試將醋酸絲束業務貨幣化嗎？

Yes. Look, what I would say is called opportunistic because that's what it is. I would think about it in terms of the same way we did PPC a few years ago. Someone -- it was an asset we liked. It was an asset that we thought was strategic to our portfolio. On the other hand, someone offered us a good bit of money for more than it was value to us. And so we're in the same situation with some other parts of our portfolio. Most of them have good return. But if there is someone out there that values them more highly, of course, we would consider. And I would say it can be small, it can be larger. But those are the sorts of things that we are looking at.

是的。你看，我之所以稱之為機會主義，是因為它就是機會主義。我會用幾年前我們做PPC（點擊付費廣告）的方式來思考這個問題。有人——這是我們看好的資產。我們認為它對我們的投資組合具有戰略意義。另一方面，有人出價很高，但價格卻高於它的價值。我們投資組合中的其他一些項目也面臨同樣的情況。它們中的大多數都獲得了不錯的回報。但如果有人對它們估值更高，我們當然會考慮。我想說，估值可以小，也可以大。但這些都是我們正在考慮的事情。

Yes. We're putting most of our energy really towards small, what I would call, cash harvesting projects. I mean it could be -- on the surface, a $5 million project doesn't seem like a lot on something like working capital, et cetera. But when you start adding up, a number of these very quickly, you can get to a material number. And so our team is working a pretty robust list of things, and we're going to continue to do everything we can to unlock cash and take on less debt at close.

是的。我們把大部分精力都投入到小型專案上，我稱之為「現金收割」專案。我的意思是，從表面上看，一個500萬美元的項目在營運資金等方面似乎不多。但如果你開始快速加起來，就能得出一個相當可觀的數字。所以我們的團隊正在製定一份相當詳盡的計劃，我們將繼續竭盡所能釋放現金，並在交易結束時減少債務。

Maybe if I can come back to Tow. We've talked in the past about Tow, and we've talked about why we think it will be hard to divest Tow for all the reasons that was hard a few years ago. That said, we clearly are not satisfied with the way the business is performing financially right now. Specifically, we're not happy with the kind of financial exposure we have with what have historically been 3-year contracts and what that gives us in terms of lack of agility and lack of ability to pass pricing on in high-inflation environments like we're seeing now.

也許我可以回到Tow。我們過去談過Tow，也討論過為什麼我們認為剝離Tow會很困難，就像幾年前那樣。話雖如此，我們顯然對Tow目前的財務表現並不滿意。具體來說，我們對過去三年期合約帶來的財務風險感到不滿，這導致我們缺乏彈性，在目前這種高通膨環境下無法將價格轉嫁出去。

So while, of course, we would consider a divestiture, just like we would anything, actually, what we're really looking at is how do we develop more optionality in our Tow business, similar to what we've developed over the years in our acetyl chain and do that in a way to really help us improve profitability of the Tow business as we move on in the coming years.

因此，雖然我們當然會考慮剝離，就像我們考慮其他任何事情一樣，但實際上，我們真正考慮的是如何在我們的 Tow 業務中開發更多的可選性，類似於我們多年來在乙醯基鏈中開發的一樣，並以一種真正幫助我們在未來幾年提高 Tow 業務盈利能力的方式做到這一點。

Our next questions come from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Lori, in the prepared remarks, there was a line about how the bump-up in your full year guidance is sort of predicated, amongst other things, on a degree of easing of raw material constraints. So I just wanted to sort of get your views on that. Were you guys seeing constraints on the raw material side? Were you being conservative in your earlier outlook in terms of availability? Did this have some sort of a higher raw material price baked in? So just any clarity around that.

洛里，在準備好的發言稿中，有一句話提到，你們全年績效指引的提升，在某種程度上是基於原料限制的某種程度的緩解。所以我想聽聽你對此的看法。你們是否看到了原料方面的限制？你們之前對原料供應的預測是否比較保守？這是否已經考慮到了原物料價格上漲的影響？能否澄清一下這一點？

Yes. Thanks, Hassan, for the question. Really referred to -- and I mentioned it just a few minutes ago but I probably wasn't clear. We did have significant raw material constraints last year in Engineered Materials specifically. And it wasn't -- it was a little bit around resin, some of the resins, PBT things that we purchased. But more importantly, it was around things we used to not worry much about like glass fiber and flame retardants where we just couldn't get enough to make the products that our customers demanded.

是的。謝謝Hassan的提問。我幾分鐘前就提到過，但我可能沒說清楚。去年，我們在工程材料業務方面確實面臨嚴重的原材料短缺。這不僅僅是樹脂短缺，還包括我們採購的一些PBT材料。更重要的是，我們以前不太擔心的材料，例如玻璃纖維和阻燃劑，我們根本無法獲得足夠的材料來生產客戶所需的產品。

We saw that starting to ease last year. I would say, if I look kind of at the lower end of our range, we assume that those continued. What we saw in the first quarter is those constraints have been largely mitigated. Great work by our procurement team and others to really find alternative sourcing. And so we've largely mitigated that, which then means we can produce more volumes of materials that our customers want, which then moves us to the higher end of our range in Engineered Materials.

我們看到這種情況在去年開始有所緩解。我想說，如果看一下我們產品範圍的低端，我們假設這種情況會持續下去。我們在第一季看到的是，這些限制已基本緩解。我們的採購團隊和其他團隊在尋找替代採購方面做得很好。因此，我們在很大程度上緩解了這種限制，這意味著我們可以生產更多客戶所需的材料，從而使我們進入工程材料產品範圍的高端。

Understood, understood. And a bit more of a macro question. Look, I mean, obviously, a very impressive sort of bump-up in your full year guidance. And at least a verbiage of your prepared remarks, it sounds like you're pretty confident in achieving that. Now I mean as I sit there and sort of hear some of the pundits out there talking about recessions and maybe a potential recession in Europe and slowing down in China. I mean, look, you guys are in all these sort of important markets, be it China, be it Germany, which obviously is impacted by geopolitics. I mean what are you guys seeing relative to these sort of recessionary pundits out there that gives you more confidence?

明白了，明白了。這是一個更宏觀的問題。我的意思是，顯然，你們的全年業績預期大幅提升了。至少從你準備好的發言稿來看，你似乎對實現這一目標很有信心。現在，我坐在這裡，聽到一些專家談論經濟衰退，例如歐洲可能出現經濟衰退，以及中國經濟放緩。我的意思是，你們涉足了所有這些重要的市場，無論是中國還是德國，這些市場顯然都受到地緣政治的影響。我的意思是，相對於那些經濟衰退的專家，你們看到了什麼，讓你們更有信心呢？

Yes. So I'll start off, I'll just reiterate. We have not assumed any significant demand destruction in our guidance that we've given. So we haven't assumed any demand destruction from inflation or from our customers being impacted by inflation. And that's really based on what we're seeing right now, which is, yes, there's a little bit of bumpiness. We're seeing more issue go from logistics constraints, especially maritime constraints, especially in China, than we are kind of in the inflationary pressure at this point in time. And so that's our assumption. Obviously, we're going to continue to monitor in all regions, but we continue to believe, unless something changes significantly through the remainder of the year, that logistics will continue to be a bigger issue for us than inflation.

是的。首先，我再重申一次。在我們給出的業績指引中，並沒有假設任何重大的需求破壞。也就是說，我們並沒有假設通貨膨脹或我們的客戶受到通貨膨脹的影響會造成任何需求破壞。這實際上是基於我們目前所看到的情況，也就是說，確實存在一些波動。我們看到，物流限制，尤其是海運限制，尤其是在中國，帶來的問題比我們目前面臨的通膨壓力更大。這就是我們的假設。當然，我們將繼續監測所有地區的情況，但我們仍然認為，除非今年剩餘時間出現重大變化，否則物流對我們來說仍將是一個比通貨膨脹更大的問題。

Our next questions come from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, just on EM, you mentioned surcharges in the quarter. How much of the price in the quarter was surcharges versus more permanent or structural? And how do you decide whether to put in place a more structural or more of a surcharge-type increase?

Lori，剛才談到新興市場，您提到了本季的附加費。本季的價格中有多少是附加費，有多少是永久性或結構性的？您如何決定是實施結構性上漲還是附加費式上漲？

Great question, David. Look, I would say for the quarter, the price increases have really been to cover the additional costs just to offset the raws and energy. So we typically pass through price increases with raws because those tend to go up more slowly and come down more slowly. We have a surcharge for energy. What I would tell you right now is between our pricing movements to cover raws and the surcharge, we're fully covering those increases. And that's what you're seeing in the pricing.

大衛，問得好。我想說，就本季而言，價格上漲實際上是為了彌補原材料和能源成本的額外增加。所以我們通常會把原物料價格上漲轉嫁給原物料，因為原物料價格上漲和下降的速度通常都比較慢。我們對能源收取附加費。我現在想告訴你的是，我們調整了原料價格，加上附加費，完全彌補了這些上漲。這就是你在價格中看到的情況。

Now what we see on the other side is when energy comes down, that's going to go back to our customers within a month. That's how we designed it, to give our customers assurance that they could get back to normal. As raws goes down, as we always have, pricing will eventually go down with it but there tends to be a little bit of a lag. But I would say right now, we're just trying to maintain margin. Our customers have worked really well with us in working around the constraints we've had in terms of logistics, in terms of raw material, working with us on pricing. And so we want to continue to be able to serve those customers going forward. So there may be some lag in pricing, but again, our objective has been to just maintain margins during this period, not necessarily to grow them.

現在我們看到的另一種情況是，當能源供應下降時，我們會在一個月內恢復供應。我們就是這樣設計的，目的是讓客戶確信他們能夠恢復正常。隨著原物料價格下降（我們一直以來都是如此），價格最終也會隨之下降，但往往會有一些滯後。但我想說，目前我們只是在努力維持利潤率。我們的客戶與我們合作得很好，克服了我們在物流、原材料方面的限制，並與我們共同製定了定價方案。因此，我們希望未來能夠繼續為這些客戶提供服務。因此，定價可能會有一些滯後，但我們的目標一直是在此期間維持利潤率，而不一定會提高利潤率。

Got it. And Scott, just on the M&M synergies, you mentioned an acceleration of year 1 synergies. What's driving that? And could you actually quantify what that could be for us going forward?

明白了。史考特，關於M&M的綜效，您提到第一年的綜效加速。是什麼推動了這股趨勢？您能否具體量化一下這對我們未來的影響？

Yes. I mean I think some of the things we talked about early on was that we hadn't baked in a lot of tax synergies particularly early in the deal, David, and we've been working on those types of things early days, and we think we'll be able to bring those forward. Some of those, right, I'll call it kind of back-end things tend to be able to happen faster, and we're more confident in that now than where we were.

是的。大衛，我的意思是，我們早期討論過的一些事情是，我們並沒有考慮到很多稅收協同效應，尤其是在交易初期。我們早期一直在研究這類事情，我們認為我們能夠提前實現它們。其中一些，對，我稱之為後端的事情往往能夠更快地完成，我們現在對此比以前更有信心。

I also think we've done some pre-integration work, both internally here, and we've had some contact with the M&M team largely focused on business continuity in day 1. But in those interactions, we are extremely excited. There's a lot of energy with the teams. It's a great group of people coming over from M&M. And we're really excited about the combined portfolio and being able to really partner with customers and accelerate some of the things we talked about on both the cost and revenue side of things as we go forward. So just such a great complementary businesses with people that are really excited to get after it.

我覺得我們也做了一些預整合工作，既包括內部整合，也與M&M團隊進行了一些接觸，主要集中在第一天的業務連續性問題。但在這些互動中，我們感到非常興奮。團隊充滿活力。這是一群來自M&M的優秀人才。我們對合併後的產品組合感到非常興奮，能夠與客戶真正合作，並在未來加快推進我們在成本和收入方面談到的一些事項。所以，這是一個非常互補的業務，而且員工們都對它充滿熱情。

Our next questions come from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Scott, it looks like your cash flow is trending roughly $300 million for the better on an apples-to-apples basis, allowing you to absorb your deal-related and transaction fees. Can you speak to what you're embedding in that number these days for working capital this year and other swing factors aside from earnings variances?

史考特，以同類比較來看，你的現金流似乎正朝著好的方向成長約3億美元，這讓你能夠吸收交易相關費用和交易手續費。你能不能談談，除了獲利差異之外，今年的營運資金和其他波動因素都包含在這個數字裡？

Yes. Kevin, we're not changing really the working capital assumptions materially versus what we assumed at the beginning of the year. So assume kind of the same type of inflationary environment that we've been in. Now if that were to turn a bit and we get relief there, then we will have a fairly sizable working capital pickup that we have not baked in to that number. I mean that increase that we put out there is really driven by 2 things: higher earnings as well as the reduction of CapEx by about $50 million.

是的。凱文，我們實際上並沒有對營運資本假設進行實質調整，這與年初的假設基本一致。假設通膨環境與我們目前的情況基本相同。如果通膨情況有所好轉，我們得到緩解，那麼我們的營運資本將大幅增加，而這部分資金我們之前並沒有計入。我的意思是，我們提出的增加營運資本實際上是由兩個因素推動的：更高的利潤以及約5000萬美元的資本支出減少。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

I just wanted to hash out a little bit the performance in EM EBITDA. So I know JV income increased certainly, and I know price was up 7% sequentially and you had Santoprene. But it seemed like you got all the tailwinds without any raw material headwinds or anything that we've kind of discussed. So is there something that we're missing from there or that I'm missing from an operating leverage standpoint? Was lower acid a tailwind actually to raws?

我只是想稍微談談新興市場 EBITDA 的表現。我知道合資企業的收入肯定增加了，價格也環比上漲了 7%，而且你們還有山都平 (Santoprene)。但看起來你們似乎抓住了所有有利因素，而沒有遇到原材料方面的不利因素，或我們之前討論過的任何不利因素。那麼，從營運槓桿的角度來看，我們是否忽略了什麼，或者我忽略了什麼？低酸值對原料來說真的是利好因素嗎？

Yes. Again, if we look at -- Matthew, I'm sorry, I'm assuming your question was kind of fourth quarter to first quarter?

是的。再說一次，如果我們看一下——馬修，抱歉，我假設你的問題是關於第四季與第一季的對比？

Yes, exactly. Sorry.

是的，確實如此。抱歉。

Yes. I think, look, we had record revenues for the quarter. We saw demand remaining strong. We had the growth, especially in auto, again, some of that being pulled forward from second quarter. Our volumes were up. 2/3 of it Santoprene, but about 1/3 of it, everything else. Our price was up. But actually, I would say our price was up but it was offset by the rising raws and rising energy. We saw energy going up, continuing to go up in Europe for the quarter. We saw raw materials going up for the quarter. Ethylene costs were up globally, which certainly has a big impact in Engineered Materials.

是的。我想，我們本季的營收創下了紀錄。我們看到需求依然強勁。我們實現了成長，尤其是在汽車領域，部分成長比第二季度提前。我們的銷量有所成長，其中三分之二是山都平，但其他所有產品約佔三分之一。我們的價格上漲了。但實際上，我想說的是，我們的價格上漲了，但被原材料和能源價格上漲所抵消。我們看到能源價格上漲，本季歐洲能源價格持續上漲。我們也看到原物料價格上漲。全球乙烯成本上漲，無疑對工程材料部門產生了重大影響。

So I would say we actually continue to see increases in all of those areas. And just -- and that's really -- so price kind of got netted out with raw materials. And then affiliates were up in the first quarter, kind of typical with seasonality but also good performance at KEP and Infraserv in particular.

所以我想說，我們實際上在所有這些領域都持續看到成長。而且——這確實是——價格已經扣除了原料。第一季關聯公司業績有所成長，某種程度上是典型的季節性因素，但KEP和Infraserv的表現尤其出色。

Yes, I wanted to ask you about that. So I mean I used to think of KEPCO as something like $27 million contribution annually, I think. And that's going to move to the -- one, is that still right? Two, because I know that moves into the line item by 3Q, so I just want to make sure I have that number right. And then as we move into 2Q, what do you expect on the direction for JV income?

是的，我想問你這個問題。我的意思是，我以前以為韓國電力公司每年的貢獻大概是2700萬美元。這會轉移到──第一，這樣還對嗎？第二，因為我知道到第三季度，這會進入明細項目，所以我只是想確保這個數字正確無誤。然後，隨著我們進入第二季度，您對合資企業收入的走向有何預期？

Yes. Let me handle the KEP question first. So I think if you look at what we said is on an incremental run rate basis, once we get the synergies fully realized, we'd expect to have about $25 million to $40 million incremental, Matthew. Now Q2, Q3 are going to be what I would call a transition quarter. So really, Q4 is when you're going to start to see that kind of things really flow through with the new flows as we expect. And then I think we'll start to get in that first year of those synergies. We'll probably get about half of that number would be my guess. So you can kind of -- there'll be a few million maybe incremental in the fourth quarter and then into Q1.

是的。我先來處理KEP的問題。 Matthew，我認為，如果你看一下我們所說的增量運行率，一旦我們完全實現協同效應，我們預計增量約為2500萬到4000萬美元。第二季和第三季我稱之為過渡季。所以，第四季你才會真正看到這些新業務的流入，就像我們預期的那樣。然後，我認為我們將開始進入協同效應的第一年。我猜我們大概可以達到這個數字的一半左右。所以，你可以這樣認為──第四季和第一季可能會有幾百萬的增量。

So for affiliates in Q2, we expect that to be roughly flat with Q1.

因此，對於第二季的附屬公司，我們預計其營收將與第一季大致持平。

Our next questions come from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess first off, just when you think about the Q2 guidance for AC, the $425 million and the full year at $1.6 billion, obviously, it assumes a moderation that in second half and in Q2. In Q1, I think you went into the quarter seeing potentially forecasting some moderation, which didn't necessarily materialize, and that's been the case for a number of prior quarters as well. So when you think about the rest of the year, maybe if you can just lay out some of the drivers that you see that drives that moderation. Obviously, there are some issues around China, and there's some issues with feedstock costs coming down. But what else, I guess, would you cite as to some of those drivers?

首先，當您考慮AC第二季度的業績指引，即4.25億美元和全年16億美元的業績指引時，顯然，它假設下半年和第二季度的業績會有所放緩。在第一季度，我認為您預測的業績可能會有所放緩，但這並未必然實現，之前幾季也是如此。所以，當您考慮今年剩餘時間的業績時，能否請您列舉一些您認為推動業績放緩的驅動因素？顯然，中國市場存在一些問題，原料成本下降也存在一些問題。但您還能列舉哪些其他驅動因素呢？

Yes. Look, I would say in Q1, we did see moderation. I mean from peak to trough, the peak in Q4 to the trough in Q1, we saw about a $600 per ton reduction in acid price in China. Even average to average was about $300. So I think we are seeing moderation in China acid. What I would say is that has been pretty much an Eastern phenomena. So we've been able to take volumes and pivot to the West where we saw margins maintained in the Western Hemisphere. And we've been able to pivot to the downstream and with strong demand for VAM continuing. But also we noticed, especially emulsions products, redispersible powders, EVA.

是的。我想說，在第一季度，我們確實看到了緩和的跡象。我的意思是，從高峰到谷底，從第四季的高峰到第一季的谷底，我們看到中國酸價每噸下降了約600美元。平均價格也下降了約300美元。所以我認為我們看到中國酸價正在緩和。我想說的是，這在很大程度上是東方現象。因此，我們能夠將產量轉向西方，而西半球的利潤率則得以維持。我們也能夠轉向下游市場，VAM的需求持續強勁。但我們也注意到，尤其是乳液產品、可再分散乳膠粉和EVA。

I mean I think we called it out in the comments, but for the first time ever, 25% of our earnings in acetic acid were really -- were due to just RDP and emulsions products. So that's pretty amazing if you think about it. So I mean that's the power of our model. As we look at it, I mean, another way to think about this, I mean, we refer a lot to 2018 is in 2018, 78% of our earnings in the Acetyl Chain came from acetic acid. In this quarter, 50% of our earnings came from acetic acid.

我的意思是，我想我們在評論中提到過，但我們乙酸業務的25%的收益實際上——僅來自可再生藥水（RDP）和乳劑產品，這還是有史以來第一次。仔細想想，這真是太神奇了。這就是我們模型的威力所在。換個角度來看，我們常提到2018年，2018年我們乙醯基產品鏈78%的收益來自乙酸。而本季，我們50%的收益來自乙酸。

So I think what we've called out, which is a moderating acetic acid is absolutely true. The numbers support it for the first quarter. We expect that to further moderate as we move into the second quarter. And in time, we -- Western Hemisphere prices will start to trend down and margins trending down as well. Ethylene price is going to continue to increase in second quarter, so that's going to cause a little bit of further margin compression. And that will continue, we believe, as we go through the year. Now we've said that for a while. Fortunately, the moderation has started later and gone slower than we anticipated in our original outlook, which is why we've been able to raise our outlook on Acetyl Chain.

所以我認為我們之前提到的醋酸價格放緩是完全正確的。第一季的數據也印證了這一點。我們預計，隨著進入第二季度，醋酸價格將進一步放緩。隨著時間的推移，西半球的價格將開始下降，利潤率也將下降。乙烯價格在第二季將繼續上漲，這將進一步壓縮利潤率。我們相信，這種情況將持續到今年年底。我們已經說過一段時間了。幸運的是，醋酸價格放緩的開始時間比我們最初預期的要晚，而且速度也比我們最初預期的要慢，因此我們上調了乙醯基鏈的預期。

I would also say, we talk a lot about foundational earnings. And I think previously, we had called out getting to a foundational level of earnings in the second half of this year. I think we typically call foundational earnings. We have been saying $1 billion or slightly above.

我還想說，我們經常討論基礎盈利。我記得之前我們曾提出要在今年下半年達到基礎獲利水準。我們通常稱之為基礎獲利。我們一直說的是10億美元或略高於這個數字。

But I think as we're seeing the industry fundamentals change, the supply-demand continue to be tight even with the addition of a little bit of extra capacity in China, we've really seen the strength of our models continue to develop, especially our ability to generate good margins and income out of our downstream derivatives. The stronger Western demand we've seen, our very bullish outlook by our customers. Plus, we have investments coming on, Clear Lake early next year, other VAM, VAE expansions towards the end of next year, all that additional optionality we're getting, clearly, we think those foundational earnings -- our level of earnings, are growing something well above that $1 billion.

但我認為，隨著行業基本面的變化，即使中國新增了少量產能，供需仍然緊張，我們也確實看到了我們模式的優勢在不斷發展，尤其是我們從下游衍生品中創造良好利潤和收入的能力。我們看到西方需求強勁，客戶對我們的前景非常樂觀。此外，我們即將進行投資，明年初Clear Lake項目，明年底其他VAM和VAE項目的擴建，以及我們獲得的所有這些額外的選擇權，顯然，我們認為這些基礎收益——我們的收益水平——正在遠超10億美元。

And so altogether, I'd say while we are starting to moderate and returning to a more foundational level of earnings, that foundational level of earnings has increased measurably versus where we used to be.

總而言之，我想說，雖然我們開始放緩並回到更基礎的收入水平，但與過去相比，基礎收入水平已經有了顯著提高。

Great. And similarly for EM, would you say that the foundational level of earnings has also increased when most of your markets, including electrosurgery, come back?

太好了。對於新興市場來說，您是否認為，當包括電外科在內的大多數市場復甦時，基礎獲利水準也會隨之提高？

Yes. Look, I think what we're seeing in EM is the really great work by our folks over all of the many last years to really grow our pipeline model, grow our programs, move more of our molecules into value applications, higher-margin applications where we are maybe 1 of 2 people who can provide that material, which gives us more pricing power, the ability to work with our customers to pass through the higher raws that we're seeing, moving into higher end markets. I think you're seeing really kind of all the results of that work that's been going on for several years really coming to fruition and getting us to a level of earnings that we think we can maintain going forward through a wide variety of economic scenarios.

是的。我認為，我們在新興市場看到的是我們員工在過去多年裡所做的傑出工作，他們真正拓展了我們的產品線模式，拓展了我們的項目，將更多分子投入到價值應用和利潤更高的應用領域，我們可能是少數幾家能夠提供這種原料的公司之一。這賦予了我們更大的定價權，讓我們能夠與客戶合作，將我們看到的更高成本的原料轉移到更高端的市場。我認為，你們確實看到了這些年來持續努力的成果，這些成果正在結出累累碩果，並使我們達到了我們認為能夠在各種經濟形勢下維持的盈利水平。

Yes. And that model continues to evolve with the acquisitions coming in. I mean the Santoprene acquisition has proven to be additive to the model. The team is bringing different ideas. The synergies are coming in strongly there. And then we would expect to replicate that with M&M as well as a way to continue to hone and take the best of these acquired businesses and continued really to grow that model there in EM and elevate those foundational earnings to a much higher level.

是的。隨著收購的進行，該模式也不斷發展。我的意思是，收購Santoprene已被證明對該模式起到了補充作用。團隊帶來了不同的理念。協同效應正在強勁顯現。我們期望在M&M複製這種模式，並繼續完善和發揮這些收購業務的優勢，在新興市場繼續發展該模式，並將基礎盈利提升到更高的水平。

Our next questions come from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

So a question on the comments around like appreciating the regional mix. As you think longer term, sort of after the Clear Lake expansion, what would be kind of the minimum levels of coal and oil-based vertical integration you would like to keep in the portfolio? And can you also tie that to how you're thinking about the next few rounds of technology, the innovation cycle? My impression is you've been making faster progress reducing CapEx and OpEx on the natural gas-based projects. Is that true or are you getting the same progress on all 3 platforms?

所以，關於您對區域組合的評價，我想問一個問題。從長遠來看，例如在Clear Lake擴建專案之後，您希望在投資組合中保留的煤炭和石油垂直整合的最低水平是多少？您能否將這與您對未來幾輪技術創新週期的思考連結起來？我的印像是，您在天然氣專案上降低資本支出和營運支出方面取得了更快的進展。這是真的嗎？還是您在所有三個平台上都取得了相同的進展？

Yes. Let me answer your first question. On the regional mix, look, as we bring Clear Lake in, one, we think it's great because it's based on natural gas, which even with the increases in natural gas continues to be, we believe, the lowest-cost producer of acetic acid in the world today. So that's great optionality for us to have. But we get the credit for that project even if we run at the same rates as today and take it in the form of productivity, which is catalyst and other chemical savings. So we like the optionality that Clear Lake brings.

是的。我來回答你的第一個問題。關於區域組合，首先，我們引入Clear Lake項目，我們認為這很棒，因為它以天然氣為基礎。即使天然氣價格上漲，我們相信它仍然是當今全球成本最低的醋酸生產商。所以這對我們來說是一個很好的選擇。即使我們以目前的產能運行，並以生產力的形式體現，也就是催化劑和其他化學品的節省，我們也能從該專案中獲得效益。所以我們喜歡Clear Lake帶來的選擇。

But we also like the optionality of having material in China and material in Singapore. Remember, a big portion of our value proposition to our customers is the fact that we produce what we need in a region in that region. And so the fact that we can produce in China for China surrounding areas, in Singapore for kind of Asia outside of China, India and other areas, really has helped us, especially as we've gone through these issues around logistics and everything else because we're not having to put everything we make on a boat and take it somewhere else. A lot of stuff can stay within the region where we've had a lot less logistics challenges. And obviously, we still ship to Europe.

但我們也喜歡在中國和新加坡都有材料這種可選性。記住，我們為客戶提供的價值主張很大一部分在於，我們可以在該地區生產所需的產品。因此，我們可以在中國生產，供應中國週邊地區；也可以在新加坡生產，供應中國以外的亞洲地區、印度和其他地區，這確實對我們很有幫助，尤其是在我們解決了物流和其他方面的問題之後，因為我們不必把生產的所有產品都裝上船，運到其他地方。很多產品可以留在我們面臨的物流挑戰少得多的地區。當然，我們仍然會向歐洲發貨。

And so there's still an element of that but it's very different than someone who has 1 plant in 1 place and is trying to serve the world from there. So we like having the regional mix. We believe our technology makes us one of the cheapest producers from coal. In China, coal-based acetic acid is going to continue to be the marginal producer in the world today. Even at these high oil prices, because we're also at higher oil prices, Singapore continues to be an attractive place to produce acetic acid. So we think all 3 of our plants continue to be well positioned to be competitive to make acetic acid going forward. And again, we like the optionality that having 3 different facilities in kind of 3 unique places in the world brings us.

所以這其中還是有因素的，但這與那些在一個地方擁有一家工廠並試圖從那裡服務全球的企業截然不同。所以我們喜歡區域性佈局。我們相信，我們的技術使我們成為成本最低的煤炭生產商之一。在中國，煤基醋酸仍將是當今世界邊際產量最大的醋酸生產商。即使在高油價時期，由於我們本身也處於高油價，新加坡仍然是一個有吸引力的醋酸生產地。因此，我們認為我們所有的三家工廠在未來醋酸生產方面都將繼續保持競爭力。同樣，我們喜歡在世界三個獨特的地方擁有三個不同的工廠所帶來的選擇權。

Yes. And on the innovation front, Laurence, I would say our focus really is on aggressively looking at energy reduction projects across the globe. As gas prices, oil prices, coal has all moved up, our energy costs have moved up, and we're looking at ways at which we can lower that. So in this environment, those paybacks become more attractive, and so our team is doing a great job of bringing those projects forward.

是的。勞倫斯，在創新方面，我想說我們的重點是積極探索全球節能計畫。隨著天然氣、石油和煤炭價格的上漲，我們的能源成本也隨之上升，我們正在尋找降低成本的方法。因此，在這種環境下，這些回報更具吸引力，我們的團隊正在積極推動這些專案。

And then does the European carbon border adjustment program, is that a net benefit or a headwind for Celanese once it's implemented?

那麼，歐洲碳邊境調整計畫一旦實施，對塞拉尼斯來說是淨收益還是阻力？

Yes. I'm not sure, but -- I don't know how we would be relative to our competition. I mean what I would say is our facilities in Europe tend to be highly energy efficient. So if you look at our European facilities, they produce only 20% of our scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions, but they represent about 40% of our sales. So I can't tell you exactly how that works out with the border adjustment, but I can tell you, we think when you look at all of the proposals under that Fit for 55 that we're pretty well positioned, given that we have a pretty efficient footprint already in Europe to start from.

是的。我不確定，但我不知道我們與競爭對手相比如何。我的意思是，我們在歐洲的工廠往往非常節能。所以，如果你看看我們在歐洲的工廠，它們只產生了我們範圍一和範圍二溫室氣體排放量的20%，但它們卻貢獻了我們約40%的銷售額。所以我無法確切地告訴你這與邊境調整的影響如何，但我可以告訴你，考慮到我們在歐洲已經擁有相當高效的足跡，我們認為，當你看到Fit for 55計劃下的所有提案時，我們處於相當有利的位置。

Our next questions come from the line of Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

In your prepared remarks, you're talking about improved product mix in Engineered Materials as one of the reasons for raising guidance. Could you maybe elaborate on this?

您在準備好的發言中提到，工程材料業務的產品組合改善是提高績效指引的原因之一。能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes. It's a little bit in line with what I said earlier is that we've really focused on the years of adjusting our portfolio into higher-margin, higher-value end applications. So maybe a specific example, say, last year versus this year. As you know, last year, we called about a lot of the time how medical but really specifically, implants because we weren't seeing elective surgery recover as quickly, was a drag on our earnings last year.

是的。這和我之前說的有點一致，這些年來，我們一直專注於調整產品組合，轉向利潤率更高、價值更高的終端應用。舉個具體的例子，例如去年和今年的對比。如你所知，去年我們多次打電話諮詢醫療產品，尤其是植入物，因為我們沒有看到選擇性手術恢復得那麼快，這拖累了我們去年的盈利。

And now if we look at 2022, we really see, not in first quarter, that's a seasonal thing with implants. People wait until there's -- that they're deductible. But we're seeing second quarter and beyond implants coming back to their pre-COVID levels of demand. And so therefore, that's a positive product mix impact because that's a higher-margin application than maybe other GUR applications that those go into. And we're seeing that in multiple places, where we're seeing demand for our higher-margin materials come up. We also have got new business, which is coming on that are higher margin and higher end use applications. And so for the same volume, we achieve a higher margin, and that's reflected in our comments in product mix.

現在，如果我們展望2022年，我們確實發現，在第一季度，植入物的需求確實存在季節性，而不是像第一季那樣。人們會等到它們可以抵扣時才會購買。但我們看到，第二季及以後，植入物的需求已恢復到新冠疫情之前的水準。因此，這對產品組合產生了正面的影響，因為植入物的利潤率可能比其他GUR應用更高。而且我們在多個領域都看到，對我們高利潤材料的需求正在增加。我們也獲得了一些新業務，這些業務利潤率更高，終端用途也更廣泛。因此，在產量相同的情況下，我們的利潤率更高，這反映在我們對產品組合的評論中。

And a follow-up for Scott. What kind of discussions you had with rating agencies? And what's your level of confidence if you're kind of playing out different scenarios for the back half of the year that you'll retain investment-grade rating?

接下來是斯科特的問題。您與評等機構進行了哪些討論？如果您對下半年的各種情況進行分析，您對保持投資等級的信心如何？

Yes. I mean, look, we've had very open discussions with the rating agencies when we -- starting when we first announced the deal, and we feel good about that. Ultimately, we're focusing on what we can control. And the raise of earnings guidance, we've got upside in kind of where things are coming out right now. We also have added Fitch. They launched here a couple of weeks ago. And as we kind of looked at it and given the size that the company is getting to, and we looked at peer companies, most companies have 3 rating agencies.

是的。我的意思是，從我們最初宣布這筆交易開始，我們就與評級機構進行了非常公開的討論，我們對此感到滿意。最終，我們專注於我們能夠掌控的事情。獲利預期的上調，讓我們對目前的情況有了一定的了解。我們也引入了惠譽。他們幾週前才剛加入。考慮到公司目前的規模，以及我們觀察過的同業公司，我們發現大多數公司都有3家評級機構。

So bringing Fitch on, and those conversations were very good as well just recently, and they issued a first-time credit rating of BBB- with a stable outlook. So we feel good about where things are, and we feel really good about kind of where we're going to be at close, really driven by the increased free cash flow and the improved earnings.

所以，我們引入了惠譽，而且最近雙方的溝通也非常順利，惠譽首次給了BBB-的信用評級，展望穩定。因此，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，也對最終的業績非常有信心，這主要得益於自由現金流的增加和盈利的改善。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

接下來的問題來自 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 Matthew Blair。

Lori, you mentioned the 2 outages that Celanese had in the first quarter in your Acetyl Chain. Is there like a lost profit number that we can put on that? Or do you think the lower volumes were simply made up with higher pricing?

Lori，您提到塞拉尼斯乙醯基鏈第一季發生兩次停產。請問這筆損失的利潤是多少？或者您認為產量下降只是提高價格來彌補的？

Yes. So the majority of the outages in first quarter were outages that we were anticipating, so they were planned turnarounds in Clear Lake, for VAM, for methanol, for assets. Some of them, we pulled forward from second quarter due to some unanticipated issues. But because we knew the outages were coming up, we were able to buy material from others. We store inventory. We make sure that we're covered for our customers, that we can provide them what they need during those periods of time. So you really don't see a really big impact from that.

是的。第一季的大部分停產都是我們預料之中的，所以這些停產都是Clear Lake工廠的計畫性檢修，包括VAM、甲醇和資產的檢修。由於一些意外問題，我們把其中一些停產從第二季提前了。但因為我們知道停產即將發生，所以我們能夠從其他公司購買原料。我們儲存庫存。我們確保為客戶提供保障，確保在這段時間內能夠提供他們所需的一切。所以你實際上看不到這會帶來太大的影響。

And even from a cost standpoint, turnaround cost standpoint, last year, we spent about $40 million on turnaround. We'll spend about the same this year, about half of that was in the first quarter. But again, with our average level of spending, it's not something that's really going to show up in any given quarter in a meaningful way. So I think because of the planned nature of these events, they're really covered within our guidance and within the outlook and kind of our ability to predict in a quarter.

即使從成本角度，從扭轉成本角度來看，去年我們在扭轉成本上花費了約4000萬美元。今年我們的支出也差不多，其中大約一半在第一季。但考慮到我們的平均支出水平，這筆支出在任何一個季度都不會真正反映出來。所以我認為，由於這些事件的計劃性，它們實際上都在我們的指導範圍之內，也在我們的展望和季度預測能力之內。

Our final questions come from the line of Steve Richardson with Evercore ISI.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Richardson。

This is Kiesean on for Steve. Lori, it was interesting to see your CapEx guidance kind of reduced to $550 million. So I was wondering if you could speak a little bit more to that just in terms of was it due to cost savings or a push of some CapEx into '23? I know it's a bit early to speak on that but whatever insight you could provide would be great.

我是Kiesean，Steve。 Lori，看到你們的資本支出指引下調至5.5億美元，我感到很有趣。所以，我想請您進一步談談，這是為了節省成本，還是為了將部分資本支出延後到2023年？我知道現在談論這個還為時過早，但如果您能提供任何見解，我將非常感激。

Sure. Look, on CapEx, we've called it out before. We think organic growth through CapEx is really our best use of cash. We get high 20-plus percent returns on our cash CapEx. And we're very deliberate about how we spend that money, very disciplined. It's also something we manage real-time. So Scott and I meet every quarter with the businesses and really go through where we are in CapEx, what new projects have emerged, where do we need to reconsider.

當然。關於資本支出，我們之前就討論過。我們認為透過資本支出實現有機成長才是我們現金的最佳利用方式。我們的現金資本支出報酬率高達20%以上。而且，我們對如何使用這筆資金非常謹慎，非常自律。這也是我們即時管理的。所以我和史考特每季都會與各業務部門開會，認真討論我們的資本支出現狀，有哪些新項目出現，以及哪些方面需要重新考慮。

And so I would say what you're seeing, the $50 million reduction that we called out was really an outcome of that disciplined process, adding on the layer of the DuPont M&M acquisition. So with DuPont M&M, for example, we're getting a significant amount of compounding in Asia. Some of our CapEx we had earmarked this year was to expand compounding in Asia. And clearly, we don't want to go build something if we've just bought something that will meet our needs and we think there's some extra capacity there.

所以我想說，你們看到的，我們之前提到的5000萬美元的削減，實際上是這個嚴謹流程的結果，加上杜邦M&M的收購。以杜邦M&M為例，我們在亞洲獲得了大量的複合業務。我們今年預留的部分資本支出就是用來擴大亞洲的複合業務。顯然，如果我們剛買了能夠滿足我們需求的產品，並且認為那裡還有多餘的產能，我們就不會再去新建產品了。

So what I would say is we've deferred any decision on some of the CapEx where we believe there may be overlap with DuPont, so we don't spend money that we might regret later. But I would say it's a living thing. We may come back in another quarter and have a further reduction or we may have an add because, again, we believe CapEx is a really good use of our money. We get really high returns. And so we'll continue to manage it as we always have done in a very disciplined way.

所以我想說的是，我們推遲了對一些我們認為可能與杜邦公司重疊的資本支出做出任何決定，這樣我們就不會花那些以後可能會後悔的錢。但我想說，這是一個動態的過程。我們可能會在下一個季度再次調整，進一步削減或增加資本支出，因為我們再次相信資本支出確實是一種很好的資金利用方式。我們獲得了非常高的回報。因此，我們將繼續像往常一樣，以非常嚴謹的方式管理資本支出。

Great. And just in terms of a quick follow-up, you mentioned targeting cash harvesting projects. So with the recent restructuring of the JV, could you speak on the process of the JV actually unlocking that additional value? And should we expect to see additional announcements moving forward for other JVs?

好的。簡單跟進一下，您提到了瞄準現金收穫項目。那麼，鑑於合資公司最近的重組，您能否談談合資公司實際釋放額外價值的過程？我們是否應該期待看到其他合資公司的公告？

So let me -- I'll ask Scott to specifically comment on the KEPCO JV there. What I would say is we took a big step last year already with the sale of PPC, Fortron, some of our other JVs. I would say we like the way they're structured. We believe we get good value out of those JVs. So I wouldn't think that's the only target. I mean we're really looking at all of our businesses, as I said. Opportunistically if something emerges where it makes more sense to sell to somebody, we would consider it. But our first focus, of course, is just continuing to grow earnings and continue to grow cash flow on a very robust and healthy base business.

所以，我想請史考特就韓國電力的合資公司發表一下具體評論。我想說的是，去年我們已經邁出了一大步，出售了PPC、Fortron以及其他一些合資公司。我們喜歡它們的架構。我們相信這些合資公司能帶來豐厚的價值。所以我認為這並非唯一的目標。正如我所說，我們正在認真審視我們所有的業務。如果出現一些更適合出售的業務，我們都會考慮。但我們的首要重點當然是繼續在非常強勁健康的基礎業務上增加獲利和現金流。

Yes. We've talked openly for a number of years about unlocking more value here. And Polyplastics was a sale a few years ago. We felt like that was the most opportunistic plan we had to be able to really unlock a lot of value there. For KEP as we looked at that and worked with the partner, it was restructuring that venture. And we'll continue to look and be opportunistic if we can find ways with our partners to add more value for the Celanese shareholders.

是的。多年來，我們一直公開討論如何釋放更多價值。幾年前，寶理塑膠被出售。我們覺得這是最具機會的方案，能夠真正釋放大量價值。對於KEP，我們考慮過這個問題，並與合作夥伴合作，重組了這家合資企業。我們將繼續尋找機會，並希望與合作夥伴一起為塞拉尼斯股東創造更多價值。

That is all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the call back over to Brandon Ayache for any closing comments.

今天提問時間就到這裡。現在，我想把電話轉回給布蘭登·阿亞什，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you. We'd like to thank everybody for listening in today. As usual, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions. Daryl, please go head and close out the call.

謝謝！感謝各位今天的收聽。像往常一樣，電話會議結束後，我們隨時準備回答您的後續問題。達裡爾，請繼續，結束本次電話會議。

This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以暫時掛斷電話了。祝您今天過得愉快。