塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2022年第二季財報電話會議及網路直播。 （操作員指示）溫馨提示：本次會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將電話會議交給投資者關係副總裁Brandon Ayache。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Thank you, Darryl. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese Corporation distributed its second quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

謝謝，Darryl。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2022年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁Brandon Ayache。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長Lori Ryerkerk和財務長Scott Richardson。塞拉尼斯公司已透過美國商業資訊(Business Wire)發布了其第二季財報，並於昨天下午在投資者關係網站上發布了關於本季度的預先準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC. Because we have published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll now open, and I'll turn the call over to Lori for some introductory comments.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。今天的演示還將包含前瞻性陳述。請閱讀新聞稿末尾關於前瞻性陳述的警示性措辭以及準備好的評論。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。由於我們昨天已經發布了準備好的評論，我們現在開始會議，我將把電話會議交給 Lori 進行一些介紹性評論。

Thanks, Brandon, and thanks to everyone joining us on the call today. Given the macro uncertainty of the world right now, I wanted to take a few minutes to set the tone for this call and reemphasize the priorities we have as a company. As we prepared the earning materials we put out yesterday, I tried to emphasize 2 long-time qualities of Celanese and its employees, and I want to reemphasize them today: number one, we are fully committed to our objectives; and number two, we are focused on executing on those things that we can control.

謝謝，布蘭登，也謝謝今天參加電話會議的各位。鑑於目前世界宏觀經濟的不確定性，我想花幾分鐘為這次電話會議定下基調，並重申我們公司的優先事項。在準備昨天發布的盈利材料時，我試圖強調塞拉尼斯及其員工長期以來的兩大品質，今天我想再次強調：第一，我們全心全意地致力於實現我們的目標；第二，我們專注於執行那些我們能夠掌控的事情。

To these points, we are committed to executing our business model to maximize earnings and cash generation. We are committed to rapidly integrating and synergizing our Santoprene and M&M acquisitions. And we are committed to swiftly executing our deleveraging plan after closing the M&M acquisition. Above all else, we remain committed to these objectives even in the most challenging of environments.

就這些方面而言，我們致力於執行我們的商業模式，以最大化利潤和現金流。我們致力於快速整合並協同收購的Santoprene和M&M業務。我們致力於在完成M&M收購後迅速實施我們的去槓桿計劃。最重要的是，即使在最具挑戰性的環境中，我們仍將致力於實現這些目標。

Clearly, the recent macro dynamics have done little to help us. This is nothing new. We have not and will not use them as excuses. Over the last few years, our teams have delivered exceptional, even record, performance while dealing with the global pandemic, severe constraints on raw materials and global logistics, record levels of cost inflation and now, add to that list, a rapid rise in interest rates. We know how to respond to external challenges by executing against that which we can control.

顯然，近期的宏觀經濟狀況對我們幫助不大。這並非新鮮事。我們過去沒有、將來也不會以此為藉口。過去幾年，我們的團隊在應對全球疫情、原材料和全球物流的嚴重短缺、創紀錄的成本通脹，以及如今利率的快速上升等挑戰的同時，依然取得了卓越甚至創紀錄的業績。我們深諳如何應對外在挑戰，並根據自身能力採取相應措施。

Our Engineered Materials and Acetyl Chain teams each delivered record earnings across the first half of 2022. Their operational excellence and commercial agility has driven record adjusted earnings per share performance across the first half of 2022 and a very strong full year outlook, even without the benefit of share repurchases this year. Our finance team successfully secured permanent financing for the M&M acquisition in a very challenging market and are taking controllable actions to ensure the resiliency of our deleveraging plan. Our integration teams are rapidly synergizing Santoprene and making significant progress in M&M pre-integration work.

我們的工程材料和乙醯基鏈團隊在2022年上半年均實現了創紀錄的獲利。他們卓越的營運能力和商業敏捷性，即使在沒有今年股票回購的情況下，也推動了2022年上半年創紀錄的調整後每股收益，並帶來了非常強勁的全年前景。我們的財務團隊在充滿挑戰的市場中成功為M&M收購獲得了永久性融資，並正在採取可控的措施，以確保我們去槓桿計劃的韌性。我們的整合團隊正在快速協同Santoprene業務，並在M&M整合前期工作中取得了重大進展。

We cannot predict what the world will present us with in the future. Right now, we see very little firsthand indications in our order book that warrants a severity of market headlines that we are all reading and the market response we have experienced. But I don't want to spend our time on this call today speculating on the things our team cannot control, whether that's business performance outside of Celanese or uncertain macro ex conditions in the future. And while we do not expect the worst, I want to be clear that we will be positioned and prepared for it.

我們無法預測未來世界將為我們帶來什麼。目前，我們的訂單中幾乎沒有任何直接跡象表明，足以支撐我們目前正在關注的市場頭條新聞以及我們所經歷的市場反應。但我不想在今天的電話會議上浪費時間去猜測我們團隊無法控制的事情，無論是塞拉尼斯以外的業務表現，還是未來不確定的宏觀經濟狀況。雖然我們不預期最壞的情況，但我想明確表示，我們將做好充分的準備，並做好準備。

We are eager to close the M&M acquisition, which we are targeting for the fourth quarter of this year. I've had the chance to meet many M&M employees over the last few months. I have been very impressed by their capability, their passion for the business and their excitement about the new company we are forming. They will be an important part of our success, and I'm excited to welcome them to Celanese. We are excited about the opportunity we will have as 1 team to drive growth and value creation in Engineered Materials going forward. Above all else, I am confident in the momentum Celanese is building to deliver long-term growth and value for shareholders. With that, I'd like to ask Darryl to go ahead and open up the session for Q&A.

我們迫切希望完成對M&M的收購，並計劃在今年第四季完成。過去幾個月，我有幸與M&M的許多員工會面。他們的能力、對業務的熱情以及對我們正在組建的新公司的興奮之情都給我留下了深刻的印象。他們將是我們成功的重要組成部分，我熱烈歡迎他們加入塞拉尼斯。我們非常高興有機會作為一個團隊，推動工程材料業務未來的成長和價值創造。最重要的是，我對塞拉尼斯正在建立的良好勢頭充滿信心，相信它能夠為股東帶來長期成長和價值。接下來，我想請Darryl開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question has come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Lori, just reading the prepared remarks, I may have misunderstood it, but it doesn't seem like you're assuming below plan EBITDA for M&M next year but just that you're going to have the higher interest expense. Is that correct? Or is it just that you think some of the work you can do can allow you to have cash flow that's on plan, in which case EBITDA kind of becomes less relevant or what is it that your latest thinking is on that right now?

Lori，我只是看了準備好的發言稿，我可能理解錯了，但你似乎並沒有假設明年M&M的EBITDA低於計劃，只是利息支出會更高。是這樣嗎？或者你只是認為你可以做的一些工作可以讓你的現金流達到計劃，在這種情況下，EBITDA就變得不那麼重要了，或者你目前對此有什麼最新的想法？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Vincent. Look, our real focus has been on really focusing on cash flow and steps that we can take to offset the additional pretax interest of about $250 million that we're anticipating. I'd have to say I'm really pleased with our team for having completed this financing in what's been a very difficult environment to do that. So we are really pleased with where we are on financing.

是的。謝謝你的提問，文森。你看，我們真正的重點是現金流，以及我們可以採取哪些措施來抵消我們預計的約2.5億美元的額外稅前利息。我必須說，我對我們的團隊在非常困難的環境下完成了這筆融資感到非常高興。所以我們對目前的融資狀況非常滿意。

But we have been looking at how do we offset that from a cash flow basis. And so we're looking at capital, we're looking at working capital, we're looking at other forms of generating cash. Obviously, our better performance within Celanese this year and our belief of that continuing through next year will also help in terms of really offsetting that on a cash performance.

但我們一直在研究如何從現金流角度抵銷這項影響。所以我們關注資本、營運資本以及其他形式的現金創造。顯然，塞拉尼斯今年的業績表現更好，我們相信這種勢頭會持續到明年，這也將有助於在現金流方面真正抵消這一影響。

I think if we look at DuPont's M&M performance, I mean, we're seeing the same numbers you are so we don't have any insight into Q2. And I would say we are disappointed. But that said, we assume they've had some of the same headwinds we've had in inflation, currency, certainly Asia automotive, which they're exposed to and the volatility there. So we're going to be watching their performance.

我認為，如果我們看看杜邦的M&M業績，我們看到的數據和你們一樣，所以我們對第二季的情況沒有任何了解。我想說，我們很失望。但話雖如此，我們假設他們在通膨、匯率，當然還有亞洲汽車市場（他們面臨的風險以及市場波動）方面也和我們一樣面臨一些阻力。所以我們會關注他們的表現。

I have to say, personally, I'm more interested in what they do in the second half and the momentum that they can build as we move through the second half and towards the time of the acquisition. And obviously, we're very focused as we look at synergies and early synergy capture and looking at what steps -- similar to what we did with Santoprene, what steps can we take immediately upon closure of the acquisition to try to get their earnings up to the level that we expected at the time of the deal.

我必須說，就我個人而言，我更感興趣的是他們在下半年的表現，以及在下半年和收購前他們能夠累積的勢頭。顯然，我們非常關注協同效應和早期協同效應的獲取，並研究哪些措施——類似於我們收購Santoprene時的做法——在收購完成後，我們可以立即採取哪些措施，以努力使他們的盈利達到我們在交易時預期的水平。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, could you just talk a little bit about sort of the differential in acetic acid pricing between Asia and the United States? It just seems to be at a pretty wide level. What was your expectation for sort of how that spread is going to play out?

好的。接下來，您能否簡單談談亞洲和美國之間醋酸價格的差異？差異似乎相當大。您對這種價差未來會如何發展有什麼預期？

Yes. I think what we saw in the second quarter is utilization, although it was pretty robust in Asia, we saw some demand come off due to COVID. All the producers were operating pretty well. So we did see demand softening as we moved -- or sorry, price softening as we moved through the second quarter.

是的。我認為我們在第二季度看到的是利用率，儘管亞洲的利用率相當強勁，但由於新冠疫情，我們看到一些需求下降。所有生產商的運作都相當良好。所以我們確實看到需求在第二季有所疲軟——或者說，價格在第二季有所疲軟。

As we look at the third quarter, we expect it to probably stay in that kind of $450 per ton that we're still seeing for China acid. I think the story in the Western Hemisphere is a little different. Demand has continued to be fairly strong, really everywhere in the Western Hemisphere. And we have had some producer outages in the Western Hemisphere continuing into now the third quarter. So I think that's where you see the price differential.

展望第三季度，我們預期價格可能會維持在每噸450美元左右，目前中國產酸的價格水準仍然如此。我認為西半球的情況略有不同。西半球各地的需求持續強勁。西半球一些生產商的停產持續到第三季。所以我認為這就是價格差異的原因。

And maybe what's a little different is -- with the logistics issues in the world today and availability of boats, I think it's been a little bit harder for people to move -- some of our competitors, I would say, to move Asia -- out of Asia and into other areas of the world, which has kept that differential high. And I expect that differential to continue as we move into third quarter.

也許略有不同的是——鑑於當今世界物流問題和船隻供應不足，我認為人們——比如我們的一些競爭對手——將貨物從亞洲運往世界其他地區——變得更加困難，這使得這種差距一直很大。我預計，隨著第三季的到來，這種差距將繼續擴大。

Our next questions come from the line of Mike Leithead with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

First one, Lori, I was hoping you could expand upon, in the prepared remarks, you talked about a strategic overhaul of the Acetate Tow business. Just how you're thinking about potentially rethinking your commercial approach there?

首先，Lori，我希望你能進一步闡述一下，在準備好的發言中，你談到了醋酸纖維絲束業務的策略改革。你是如何考慮重新思考醋酸纖維絲束業務的商業策略的？

Sure. If we look at our performance of Acetate Tow, I mean, while historically, we were really focused on delivering our customers with kind of unparalleled quality and security of supply, both of which came with longer-term contracts, we've clearly seen in this period of rapid raw material price escalation and rapid escalation of energy pricing, that this method of using fixed contracts is really unsustainable. I mean, overall demand remains fairly robust in the industry, but we clearly cannot and will not continue to run a business that is losing money.

當然。如果我們看看醋酸絲束的業績，我的意思是，雖然我們過去一直專注於為客戶提供無與倫比的品質和供應保障，而這兩者都是透過長期合約實現的，但在當前原材料價格和能源價格快速上漲的時期，我們清楚地看到，這種使用固定合約的方式確實不可持續。我的意思是，產業整體需求仍然相當強勁，但我們顯然不能也不會繼續經營虧損的企業。

So we would like to build in more optionality to that business. We need to become more nimble. We need to move towards more dynamic pricing. And so much like we did in past years with VAM and emulsions and RDP, we really want to relook at what are our commercial contracts, how do we source, how do we manufacture, all the logistics, everything, how do we produce or provide enhanced optionality versus what we have today.

因此，我們希望為該業務注入更多可選性。我們需要變得更靈活，走向更具動態性的定價模式。就像過去幾年我們在VAM、乳劑和RDP業務上所做的那樣，我們真的想重新審視我們的商業合同，我們如何採購，如何生產，如何進行所有物流，等等，我們如何生產或提供比現在更強的可選性。

We're really confident there's value in doing so. Like we said, we have experience having done that with some of the downstream derivatives of acetic acid. And we think by running this business in a similar way, we'll be able to deliver much greater value in the years ahead.

我們非常有信心這樣做是有價值的。正如我們所說，我們在乙酸的一些下游衍生物方面擁有豐富的經驗。我們相信，透過以類似的方式經營這項業務，我們將能夠在未來幾年創造更大的價值。

Great. That's super helpful. And then maybe second, just for Scott. I just want to clarify some of the interest expense comments you made in the prepared remarks. So if I just read it correctly, I believe you're adjusting the M&M interest out of adjusted EPS but that's still included in your free cash flow guidance. Is that correct? And just what is the incremental interest versus maybe what you thought last quarter pre-debt raise?

太好了，這非常有幫助。然後我想問第二個問題，就問史考特。我想澄清一下你在準備好的評論中提到的一些利息支出。如果我沒理解錯的話，我認為你把M&M的利息從調整後的每股盈餘中扣除了，但這仍然包含在你的自由現金流指引中。對嗎？增量利息與你上個季度債務增加前的預期相比是多少？

Yes. So we are going to adjust ahead of close that out of EPS, Mike, so you're correct on that. But we have included it because we have not adjusted free cash flow. So it is included there as that cost to carry. And that cost to carry is still very similar to what we had originally baked into the deal. Even though interest costs have risen, the ability to reinvest that money ahead of close, now we're in a higher return than expected previously.

是的。麥克，我們會在交易完成前從每股盈餘中調整這部分，你說得對。但我們之所以把它算進去，是因為我們沒有調整自由現金流。所以它被算作持有成本。這部分持有成本與我們最初在交易中計入的金額仍然非常接近。儘管利息成本上升，但由於能夠在交易完成前再投資這筆資金，我們現在的回報率高於先前的預期。

So the net interest on the carry is basically about the same as what we had originally anticipated for the deal. So overall, interest cost, based on the financing right now on an annualized basis going forward, post close, we would expect to be in that $250 million per year range. And we are continuing to look for ways to bring that down, and we have some plans that we plan to implement in subsequent quarters.

因此，套利淨利息與我們最初對這筆交易的預期基本相同。因此，總體而言，基於目前的融資情況，按年化計算，我們預計交易完成後的利息成本將在每年2.5億美元左右。我們正在繼續尋找降低這一水平的方法，並計劃在接下來的幾個季度實施一些計劃。

Our next questions come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In your debt financing, do you have an ability to easily refinance the different portions of the debt if interest rates come down? Or you're more constrained?

在你們的債務融資中，如果利率下降，你們是否有能力輕鬆地對不同部分的債務進行再融資？還是說你們的融資能力會受到更多限制？

Yes. So Jeff, what we did on that financing is we did try to weight a good portion of that financing to the short end of the curve on the fixed debt. So we have a larger amount on the 2- and 3-year, which will allow us to either not just refinance but hopefully delever and pay that off with the cash flow in the early parts of the deal.

是的。傑夫，我們在這筆融資中所做的就是，盡量將很大一部分資金投入固定債務的短期償債。因此，我們在兩年期和三年期的貸款中佔了較大比例，這不僅能讓我們進行再融資，還能讓我們在交易初期就去槓桿，用現金流償還貸款。

We also have term loans which are variable in the amount of about $1.5 billion as well, which will give us the ability to refinance that earlier on. We're also looking at different cross-currency options on a go-forward basis. As we look to and get better understanding of where earnings are going to be in the next several years, we do have the ability to do some cross-currency swaps like we had previously done a few weeks ago to additional euro opportunities as well as yen opportunities to best match where the earnings exposure will be.

我們還有約15億美元的可變定期貸款，這將使我們能夠提前進行再融資。我們也在考慮未來的不同交叉貨幣選擇。隨著我們對未來幾年盈利走勢的展望和理解不斷加深，我們有能力進行一些交叉貨幣掉期交易，就像我們幾週前所做的那樣，增加歐元和日元的投資機會，以最佳地匹配盈利敞口。

My second question. When you think about the Acetyl Chain in 2023, if we again go into a pronounced economic slowdown, we seem to be in a different place because oil prices are so much higher, whether they stay at where we are or whether they come down somewhat. When you think of the earnings level or the earnings power of the Acetyl Chain in a 2023 recession, where do you think we would be or what range?

我的第二個問題是：如果您考慮2023年的乙醯基產業鏈，如果我們再次陷入明顯的經濟放緩，我們似乎會處於不同的境地，因為油價現在高得多，無論油價是維持在目前的水平還是有所下降。您認為在2023年經濟衰退期間乙醯基產業鏈的獲利水準或獲利能力會在哪裡，或在什麼範​​圍內？

Yes. I think the question you're really asking, Jeff, is where do we see a level of foundational earnings? And although we may have in a recessionary environment next year, I think -- personally, I think it will be more shallow and the impact on our business, while we're not immune to it, we think is, at this point, manageable.

是的。傑夫，我認為你真正想問的問題是，我們的基礎獲利水準應該在什麼水準？雖然明年我們可能會面臨經濟衰退，但我個人認為，經濟衰退的影響會比較淺，雖然我們無法倖免，但我們認為目前來看，它對我們業務的影響是可控的。

So I think if you look at the first half of this year and you look at the trailing 12 months, we've been at a $2 billion a year level for the Acetyl Chain. And clearly, that is not foundational. Clearly, we've seen some fairly exceptional conditions these last few years. So we do expect moderation. If you go back a year or so, we were guiding to about $1 billion a year prior to the lift from the Clear Lake expansion as our foundational earnings.

所以我認為，如果你看看今年上半年和過去12個月，你會發現乙醯基鏈的年收入一直維持在20億美元左右。顯然，這並非基礎收入。顯然，過去幾年我們看到了一些相當特殊的情況。所以我們預計會有所緩和。如果回溯一年左右，在Clear Lake擴建計畫帶來收益之前，我們預計年收入約為10億美元，以此作為我們的基礎收入。

And we've continued to improve our business over the last few years. We've built in a lot of additional optionality. We added Elotex and the RDP capability. We've continued to enhance our commercial agility in Acetyl Chain, and we have seen improved global supply-demand balances. And we see that even in China today where I mean, prices certainly have moderated, I'd say, back to more typical levels. But we're still at kind of 85% to 90% utilization in China.

過去幾年，我們持續改進業務。我們新增了許多選用功能，例如增加了Elotex和RDP產能。我們持續提升乙醯基鏈的商業彈性，全球供需平衡也得到改善。即使在今天的中國，價格也確實有所回落，回到了更正常的水平。但我們在中國的產能利用率仍維持在85%到90%之間。

So overall, we feel very confident. We've lifted our foundational earnings above that $1 billion a year level. Clearly, like I said, in China, we're seeing the acetic acid moderation. I expect at some point, we'll start to see some of that in the Western Hemisphere as well, very -- some moderation in, for example, paints and coatings but still robust to historical.

所以總的來說，我們非常有信心。我們的基礎獲利已超過每年10億美元的水平。顯然，正如我所說，在中國，我們看到乙酸的產量正在放緩。我預計在某個時候，西半球也會開始看到類似的情況，例如油漆和塗料等行業的產量會有所放緩，但仍然保持強勁，符合歷史水平。

So I don't have an exact number at this point. What I would tell you is we continue to look at this and we'd like to kind of see how the third quarter develops. And as we typically do, we'll be coming out with some guidance for 2023 in the October time frame.

所以我現在還沒有確切的數字。我想告訴你的是，我們會繼續關注這個問題，並觀察第三季的發展。和往常一樣，我們將在10月發布2023年的一些預期。

Our next questions come from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

Curious if you could talk about some of the end market volumes that you're seeing at EM, kind of as you went from the end of second quarter into 3Q. So like auto, consumer durables, where are you seeing more weakness and how pronounced that weakness is in that market versus your performance?

我很好奇，您能否談談您在新興市場看到的一些終端市場交易量，例如從第二季末到第三季的情況。例如汽車、耐用消費品，您在哪些市場看到了更大的疲軟？相對於你們的業績，這些市場的疲軟程度如何？

Yes. I think if we look at EM, we are seeing slight softness, I'd say, across all regions. I mean, in Asia with the COVID lockdowns, we saw a little bit of softness there, although surprisingly, auto continued to be very strong for us in Asia, even though the market was down, I think, 13% in China in terms of builds, we were actually up about 8%.

是的。我認為，如果我們看一下新興市場，我們會發現所有地區都略有疲軟。我的意思是，在亞洲，由於新冠疫情封鎖，我們看到了一點疲軟。不過令人驚訝的是，汽車業務在亞洲仍然表現強勁，儘管中國汽車市場下降了13%，但我們的銷量實際上增長了約8%。

I would say in Asia, we need a little more visibility kind of post the COVID recovery here now to really assess the fundamental demand that's going to exist for some of the other areas. I'd say in the U.S., we're seeing consumer spending stay up, really holding up the best of all of the regions, which is supporting certainly auto build but also industrial demand and some of the electronics and electricity.

我想說，在亞洲，我們需要對新冠疫情後的復甦有更清晰的了解，才能真正評估其他一些地區未來的基本需求。我想說，在美國，我們看到消費者支出保持強勁，這確實支撐了所有地區的最佳表現，這不僅支撐了汽車製造業，也支撐了工業需求以及部分電子產品和電力產業。

And then in the EU, I'd say we're seeing some signs that inflation and energy uncertainty is starting to impact demand but fairly weak signals still at this point. If you look at the different end markets, in auto, what I would say is right now, it's pretty hard for us to imagine a scenario where demand is what's going to drive auto. We really think it's going to continue to be driven by availability of raw materials, specifically chips. And our outlook is chip availability gets slightly better every quarter and will continue to do so through the end of '23. And we believe that's what will -- we believe demand is pretty robust. We're seeing that in all segments of the world, big backlogs, low inventories.

在歐盟，我想說，我們看到一些跡象表明通膨和能源不確定性開始影響需求，但目前這些訊號仍然相當微弱。如果你看看不同的終端市場，例如汽車市場，我想說的是，目前我們很難想像需求會成為汽車市場發展的驅動力。我們確實認為，汽車市場將繼續受到原材料供應的驅動，尤其是晶片供應。我們預計晶片供應每季都會略有好轉，並將持續到2023年底。我們相信，需求將會相當強勁。我們在世界各地都看到了這種情況：積壓訂單量大，庫存低。

So auto, we think, is just really being driven by chip availability, and that's true in all sectors. I think maybe the other thing to think about in auto though is new autos today use a lot more chips, especially EVs. And so although more chips are becoming available as they are prioritized to more premium autos and to EVs, that probably still translates to less auto builds than maybe traditionally would have been seen from that.

所以，我們認為，汽車產業的發展實際上完全取決於晶片供應情況，所有產業都是如此。不過，我認為汽車產業另一個需要考慮的問題是，如今的新車使用的晶片數量要多得多，尤其是電動車。因此，儘管隨著高端汽車和電動車的優先發展，晶片供應量正在增加，但這仍然可能意味著汽車產量會比傳統情況下下降。

I think the real softness we've seen has been more in appliances and consumer electronics, maybe not surprising because everybody seems to have bought a new computer and a new phone during COVID, and I think there's not a pent-up demand there. So I would characterize it though as modest softness, just a few percent. Could also be the impact of inflation.

我認為我們看到的真正疲軟更多地出現在家電和消費電子產品領域，這或許並不奇怪，因為在新冠疫情期間，似乎每個人都買了新電腦和新手機，而且我認為這些領域並沒有被壓抑的需求。所以，我認為這種疲軟只是適度的，只有幾個百分點。也可能是通貨膨脹的影響。

Medical, I would say, actually, our medical business as a total is back at pre-COVID levels in terms of level of earnings. And that is even without implants being back at their pre-COVID levels. So we're seeing much stronger demand in medical for other elements of our medical portfolio like long-dosage delivery devices and that sort of thing. And then you asked about EM but I would just say on the acetyl side, the softness we're seeing is more in paints and coatings and construction. But I would say that's off a historical high versus necessarily of what we would consider a typical level of demand.

我想說，實際上，就獲利水準而言，我們醫療業務的整體獲利水準已恢復到新冠疫情前的水準。這甚至還不包括植入物恢復到疫情前的水平。因此，我們看到醫療領域對我們醫療產品組合中其他產品的需求大幅增強，例如長劑量給藥裝置之類的產品。然後您問EM，我想說的是，就乙醯基產品而言，我們看到的疲軟主要體現在油漆、塗料和建築領域。但我認為，這已經脫離了歷史高點，而必然低於我們認為的典型需求水準。

And just in terms of EM earnings, I think some of your competitors, they've been a bit more vocal about the FX impact and how that changed their outlook. Did anything change from your perspective versus your planning basis? Obviously, rates are worse but I'm not sure what was embedded in your guidance.

就新興市場獲利而言，我認為你們的一些競爭對手對外匯影響及其如何改變他們的前景表達得更直白一些。從你們的角度來看，與你們的計畫基礎相比，有什麼改變嗎？顯然，利率更糟糕，但我不確定你們的業績指引包含了哪些因素。

Yes. I mean, certainly, we're seeing the FX impact in Engineered Materials. If you look at, say, this -- second quarter of this year versus last year, it's about $10 million just for EM. So we're certainly seeing it. It was a little higher this quarter than we had originally planned but I think only to the tune of a couple of million for EM.

是的。我的意思是，我們確實看到了外匯對工程材料業務的影響。如果你比較今年第二季與去年同期的數據，光是工程材料業務就損失了約1,000萬美元。所以我們確實看到了外匯的影響。本季的損失比我們最初的計劃略高，但我認為工程材料業務的損失只有幾百萬美元。

And look, I think this is really where you see the strength of our pipeline model in Engineered Materials as well as really the commercial agility of our EM employees. I mean, they have been out there managing product mix, managing pricing, doing all those things to really cover the cost of raw materials and cover the ForEx headwinds that we've been seeing throughout this quarter and all the quarters in front of it and all the quarters to come. And I think that's where you really see the strength of Celanese and the people at Celanese.

我認為這才是我們工程材料業務管道模式的優勢所在，也體現了我們工程材料部門員工的商業敏捷性。我的意思是，他們一直在努力管理產品組合、定價，做所有這些事情，以真正覆蓋原材料成本，並應對我們在本季度、之前以及未來幾季所經歷的外匯逆境。我認為這才是塞拉尼斯及其員工真正實力所在。

Our next questions come from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess for my first question, on your comments, Lori, in your prepared comments about inventory levels having sort of normalized in many end markets, verticals along the supply chain, does that, by definition, create less opportunities for the AC segment in terms of just sort of flexing the chain and maximizing molecular profitability? Or is that not the case?

我的第一個問題是，Lori，您之前說過，許多終端市場、供應鏈上的垂直行業的庫存水平已經趨於正常化，那麼從定義上來說，這是否會減少空調行業在供應鏈靈活調整和分子盈利能力最大化方面的機會？還是說並非如此？

Yes. I would characterize it, Ghansham -- I think our focus in the Acetyl Chain have done a tremendous job really flexing the chain over the last, call it, 2 years to really respond to the difference in Western Hemisphere economics versus China and to really move as much down the chain as we can.

是的。 Ghansham，我想說的是——我認為，我們對乙醯基產業鏈的關注在過去兩年裡取得了巨大的進展，真正地改變了產業鏈，以應對西半球與中國經濟之間的差異，並儘可能地延伸到下游。

What I would say is as we see soft China pricing, you saw last quarter, we moved a lot of material out of Asia into Europe and we did that in the first quarter as well. We'll continue to do that. What I would say is though we're probably reaching our limits of how much more flexibility we have in the changes because we're really full in downstream derivatives. We're running full capacity in VAM, VAE, RDP. So we'll continue to take commercial actions to try to take advantage of other opportunities we see in the market. But I think we've really been pushing the boundaries of the optionality we have within the AC chain, if you really -- especially if you look at second quarter.

我想說的是，正如上個季度我們所看到的，由於中國價格疲軟，我們將大量材料從亞洲轉移到歐洲，第一季也採取了同樣的措施。我們將繼續這樣做。不過，我想說的是，由於我們的下游衍生品供應已經非常緊張，我們在這些變化中所能擁有的靈活性可能已經達到了極限。我們的VAM、VAE和RDP產能已滿載運轉。因此，我們將繼續採取商業行動，努力抓住我們在市場上看到的其他機會。但我認為，我們確實一直在突破AC鏈中可選性的界限，尤其是在第二季。

Okay, terrific. And then on the recession sort of scenario, how do you see volumes playing out for your EM segment in context of the fact that many end markets such as autos, which are quite large, never fully recovered. And would you expect also the same for M&M? I understand you don't own it yet and so on, but just given the nature of the end market matrix for that business as well.

好的，太棒了。那麼，在經濟衰退的情況下，考慮到許多終端市場（例如汽車市場）尚未完全復甦，您如何看待新興市場（EM）的銷售表現？您預期M&M也會面臨同樣的情況嗎？我知道您還沒有持有M&M的股份，但考慮到該業務終端市場矩陣的性質，您也認為M&M的銷售會如何？

My view on auto, and I just talked about it a little bit, my view on auto is we probably have 3 years pent-up demand in auto. I mean, if you order a car in Europe, you wait a year to get it. If you order 1 in Japan, you wait 1 to 2 years. Even in the U.S., I mean, you can wait quite a long time if you're looking for something specific. So I think there's a lot of pent-up demand in auto.

我對汽車的看法，我剛才稍微談了一下，我認為汽車市場可能有三年的被壓抑需求。我的意思是，如果你在歐洲訂購一輛車，你需要等一年才能拿到。如果你在日本訂購一輛車，你需要等一到兩年。即使在美國，如果你想買特定車型，也可能要等很久。所以我認為汽車市場有大量被壓抑的需求。

And especially for premium vehicles, which we have a stronger presence in and EVs, which we have a stronger presence in. While in a recessionary environment, you would normally expect that, given we have been so long now and have this large pent-up demand, I think auto is going to be relatively unaffected. Again, I don't see anything through the end of 2023 that's going to impact auto demand other than the shortage of chips and other raw materials, but primarily chips.

尤其是在高端汽車領域，我們在高端汽車和電動車領域都擁有更強大的影響力。在經濟衰退的環境下，考慮到我們已經經歷了這麼長時間，並且存在大量被壓抑的需求，你通常會認為汽車行業相對不會受到影響。再說一次，我認為到2023年底，除了晶片和其他原材料（主要是晶片）的短缺之外，不會有任何因素影響汽車需求。

I think we will continue to see softness if we go into a more recessionary environment on consumer durables, things that people can put off buying, consumer electronics. People will wait to buy their next iPhone. But medical and pharma is a very resilient market. I don't expect to see any impact there. And we're not seeing any impact in industrial and some of the electronics into 5G and things like that. And I really expect those buildouts for 5G and that sort of thing to continue.

我認為，如果經濟衰退加劇，耐用消費品、人們可以推遲購買的商品以及消費性電子產品的市場將繼續疲軟。人們會等待購買下一部iPhone。但醫療和製藥市場非常有韌性。我預計不會對這個領域造成任何影響。工業和一些電子產品，包括5G等領域，也沒有受到任何影響。我真心希望5G建設等能持續下去。

For power generation, I mean, with the way the world is moving, more electric vehicles, more infrastructure, more Internet of Things, I don't really see those being impacted. So the real impact I expect is what we're starting to see the softening in, which is consumer durables and consumer electronics, which for us, is a fairly small part of our portfolio.

就發電而言，我的意思是，隨著世界的發展，越來越多的電動車、基礎設施和物聯網出現，我並不認為這些會受到影響。因此，我預期真正的影響是我們開始看到的疲軟，也就是耐用消費品和消費性電子產品，而這些產品在我們投資組合中所佔的比例相當小。

Again, I don't own M&M but we do know that the vast majority -- the kind of 50% of their materials roughly goes into auto. So I would expect that to continue to be a pretty robust market as we go forward even in a recessionary environment as well.

再說一次，我不是M&M的股東，但我們知道，他們絕大多數——大約50%的材料都用於汽車。所以我預計，即使在經濟衰退的環境下，汽車市場在未來仍將保持相當強勁的成長動能。

Our next questions come from the line of Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可·西森。

Nice quarter and outlook. Lori, I guess with the added financing, and I know you guys do a really good job of offsetting a lot of negatives though, I think you had hoped the deal would be accretive by a couple of dollars in the first year. Is that -- I mean, it seems like hard to do but is it still going to be accretive? And are there things for you to do to offset the EPS dilution of the deal or of the financing?

季度業績和前景都不錯。 Lori，我想，加上新增的融資，我知道你們在抵消很多負面因素方面做得很好，我想你原本希望這筆交易能在第一年帶來幾美元的收益。這麼說吧——我的意思是，這看起來很難做到，但它仍然會帶來收益嗎？你們有什麼措施可以抵銷這筆交易或融資帶來的每股盈餘稀釋嗎？

Yes, Mike, I would just say it's too early for me to give you a definitive answer on that. I mean, we are really -- we think -- as I said, right now, we've been focused on the cash side of that equation, really maximizing cash flow. We do see we have meaningful opportunities also in the size and timing of our synergies. We think as we've done with Santoprene, we'll be able to pull things forward and increase the amount of synergies we can in the first year.

是的，麥克，我現在就給你一個明確的答案還為時過早。我的意思是，正如我所說，我們目前確實專注於現金流，並真正實現現金流最大化。我們確實看到，在綜效的規模和時機方面，我們也擁有重大機會。我們認為，正如我們收購Santoprene公司那樣，我們能夠推動專案進展，並在第一年就盡可能地提升協同效應。

As I said on the cash side, working capital, capital expenditures. Also, the performance of our businesses, we need to get a better view on 2023, which we're working through right now. So I would say from an accretion standpoint, it's just too early to call. But again, I would expect we should have a revised update we can share with all of you in the October time frame.

正如我之前提到的，現金、營運資本和資本支出。此外，我們需要更好地展望2023年的業務表現，目前我們正在為此努力。所以，從成長的角度來看，現在下結論還太早。不過，我再次強調，我們預計10月左右應該會有一個修訂後的更新，可以跟大家分享。

Got it. And then it sounds -- you noted in the prepared remarks that the disappointment in M&M results so far. When you sort of -- I know you don't have the business yet, but when you think about how the business has performed, do you sort of see it as more external and the end markets are more difficult? Or is it maybe some ways they operate that you can immediately improve and the results maybe should have been better?

明白了。聽起來——您在準備好的發言中提到了M&M迄今為止的業績令人失望。我知道您還沒有開展這項業務，但當您思考業務表現時，您是否認為它更多地受到外部因素的影響，並且終端市場更加困難？或者，也許他們的某些運作方式您可以立即改進，結果或許應該更好？

That's a tough question to answer, Mike. Look, we -- within Celanese, we expect our business to be world-class operators. We expect them to be commercially agile. We sell our products into highly differentiated and specified end applications. So we work very hard in Celanese to really preserve profitability despite external disruptions and through periods of volatility.

這個問題很難回答，麥克。在塞拉尼斯，我們期望我們的業務能夠成為世界一流的營運商。我們期望他們具備商業敏捷性。我們的產品銷往高度差異化和特定化的終端應用領域。因此，儘管面臨外部幹擾和市場波動，塞拉尼斯仍努力維持獲利能力。

As we kind of say, you'll never hear someone in Celanese use the excuse for underperformance by saying that the market is cyclical or that we had too many headwinds. I think that's how we operate in Celanese. Now we know there's a lot of great people coming from M&M. But I think we know the value of our models and we know the value of our culture, and we believe we'll be able to apply that all to M&M and get differentiated performance from that asset as well. So that's really our focus as we work through integration and move towards the close.

正如我們常說的，你永遠不會聽到塞拉尼斯有人用市場週期性或我們面臨太多逆風來解釋業績不佳。我認為這就是我們在塞拉尼斯的運作方式。我們知道有很多優秀人才來自M&M。但我認為我們了解自身模式的價值，也了解自身文化的價值，我們相信我們能夠將這些全部應用於M&M，並從這項資產中獲得差異化的表現。因此，這才是我們在整合和接近完成收購過程中真正關注的重點。

Our next question has come from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Quick question on your natural gas exposure in Europe. You gave some details about Germany and your trash-to-gas (sic) [trash-to-cash] deal. But if the supply's severely curtailed in the winter, is it possible that maybe you can shut down your Frankfurt plant and supply that -- supply those customers from either Europe or Asia?

關於你們在歐洲的天然氣業務，我想問個簡單問題。您詳細介紹了德國的情況以及您們的「垃圾變天然氣」（垃圾變現金）計畫。但如果冬季天然氣供應嚴重不足，你們是否有可能關閉法蘭克福的工廠，轉而為歐洲或亞洲的客戶提供服務？

Yes. Look, as we said in our notes, our natural gas exposure in Europe is focused in Frankfurt, Germany. And I would say 30% of our global sales come out of Germany in 2021 and that's pretty typical normally. And because of trash-to-cash, we also have projects that we can use fuel oil in IPH. I think it's not -- it is highly unlikely we would want to or would need to shut down IPH in the winter.

是的。正如我們在報告中所說，我們在歐洲的天然氣業務主要集中在德國法蘭克福。我想說，2021年我們全球銷售額的30%來自德國，這在正常情況下相當正常。而且由於垃圾變現金項目，我們在IPH也有可以使用燃料油的項目。我認為我們不太可能——或者說不太可能需要在冬季關閉IPH。

Obviously, on acetyls, we have the option to bring materials from Asia or from Europe, but we don't produce a lot of that there. It's really just palm production is the main thing we make as well as some other things in IPH. So I don't think it's highly likely we will need to. We may run at reduced rates, I think, is the more likely thing.

顯然，乙醯基方面，我們可以選擇從亞洲或歐洲進口原料，但我們在那裡的產量不多。我們主要生產棕櫚油，IPH 也生產一些其他產品。所以我認為我們不太可能需要這樣做。我認為，我們更有可能降低產量。

And again, [Thomas] is the big energy consumer there. A lot of the other things we produce there don't use nearly the amount of energy. So -- and I think there are other places in Europe outside of Germany that may be more impacted, although we are working to look at the plants to mitigate at all of our critical locations in Europe.

再說一次，[托馬斯]是那裡的能源消耗大戶。我們在那裡生產的許多其他產品所消耗的能源遠不及托馬斯。所以——我認為除了德國，歐洲其他地方可能也會受到更大的影響，儘管我們正在努力研究如何減輕我們在歐洲所有關鍵工廠的影響。

Yes. Flexing capacity is something we do every day, P.J. We've talked a lot about it in Acetyl business but we do it in Engineered Materials as well. And so if there is opportunities where we have excess capacity that is lower cost in other regions, we can move that around if the logistics are there, as Lori mentioned, and we will always look to maximize profitability if that opportunity exists.

是的。 P.J.，彈性調整產能是我們每天都在做的事情。我們在乙醯基業務中已經討論過很多次了，但我們在工程材料業務中也這麼做。所以，如果我們在其他地區有機會擁有成本更低的過剩產能，而物流條件允許，我們就可以轉移這些產能，就像Lori提到的那樣。如果有機會，我們始終致力於實現獲利能力最大化。

Great. And then in automotive, many chemical companies and others thought that there is a quick snapback. But as you rightly said, there are constraints on the chip side and all that. So what's the more realistic outlook? Can you talk about maybe like a global build number that is more reasonable?

太好了。在汽車領域，許多化學公司和其他公司都認為會出現快速反彈。但正如您所說，晶片方面存在諸多限制。那麼更現實的前景是什麼呢？能否談談更合理的全球產能規模？

Well, look, you may recall when we went into this year, we actually, despite IHS having a fairly optimistic number, I don't remember what it was, 8% or maybe even higher than that, of build growth from '21 to '22, we actually based our '22 forecast on flat auto builds from '21 to '22. And I think if you look at where we are, I think we're just under 2% growth now according to IHS for global auto builds.

嗯，你看，你可能還記得，我們​​今年初的時候，儘管IHS的數據相當樂觀，我不記得具體數字是多少了，2021年至2022年汽車生產增長8%，甚至可能更高，但我們對2022年的預測實際上是基於2021年至2022年汽車生產持平的。而我認為，如果你看看我們現在的狀況，根據IHS的數據，我認為我們現在的全球汽車生產成長率略低於2%。

And although they're still pouring out 4%, we still think flat was a pretty good prediction. And again, because we really based it on chip recovery and the fact that vehicles use more chips now, so you need more recovery in chips in order to build the same number of vehicles. So we still think flat versus '21 is a pretty good estimate. Maybe a few percent of growth here in the second half as we see chips becoming more and more available. But I think flat.

儘管產量仍在4%左右，但我們仍然認為持平是相當不錯的預測。再說一次，因為我們的預測是基於晶片回收率以及現在汽車使用晶片數量增加的事實，所以為了生產相同數量的汽車，晶片產量需要更多回收。所以我們仍然認為，與2021年相比持平是相當不錯的預測。隨著晶片供應越來越充足，下半年可能會出現幾個百分點的成長。但我認為持平。

The interesting thing is here in North America, you would think with energy prices, that though we'd start to see the transition to more demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles. But in fact, we're not. We're still seeing plenty of trucks and SUVs being the primary models being built. And again, these tend to be higher and more premium vehicles and require a lot of chips.

有趣的是，在北美，你可能會認為，隨著能源價格上漲，人們會開始轉向對更省油車的需求。但事實並非如此。我們仍然看到大量卡車和SUV成為主要生產車型。而且，這些車型往往價格更高、更高端，需要大量晶片。

Our next questions come from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Scott, I was wondering if you could address your latest thoughts on the capital budget. Last quarter, I think you indicated $550 million, but in reading the prepared remarks last night, it sounds like you're actively evaluating options to reduce that number. What kind of levers could you pull if necessary? And do you have any early thoughts on how that number could trend in '23 as you complete your expansion at Clear Lake?

史考特，我想問您最近對資本預算的看法。上個季度，我記得您提到了5.5億美元，但從昨晚準備好的演講稿來看，您似乎正在積極評估削減這一數字的方案。如果有必要，您會採取哪些措施？隨著Clear Lake工廠的擴建工程完成，您對2023年資本預算的趨勢有什麼初步想法嗎？

Yes. So I think that $550 million range for this year is still likely where we'll be. As we look forward next year, I mean, we -- in our original modeling with the combined enterprise with M&M, we had -- we've baked in a higher amount of capital than we would likely need. And as we continue to understand that business better, I think there's going to be additional opportunities to bring that capital number down.

是的。所以我認為今年5.5億美元的規模仍然有可能。展望明年，我的意思是，在我們最初與M&M合併後的模型中，我們投入的資本比我們可能需要的要多。隨著我們對這項業務的了解不斷加深，我認為會有更多機會降低這個資本水準。

So we'll provide a little more color on where we think that's going to be on a combined basis as we get into October. But it likely is going to be one of those important elements to offset that incremental $250 million of interest that we talked about in the prepared remarks. So I think we won't be able to offset it all through capital versus our original plan, but we'll certainly be able to get a good chunk of it from capital.

因此，我們將在進入十月時進一步說明我們認為的合併後的具體情況。但這很可能是抵銷我們在準備好的演講稿中提到的2.5億美元利息增量的重要因素之一。因此，我認為我們無法透過資本（與我們最初的計劃不同）來抵消所有利息，但我們肯定能夠從資本金中獲得很大一部分。

Okay. And then, Lori...

好的。然後，Lori…

If I could add to that, I mean, because you did ask where might it come from. I think like we saw this year, given the large number of assets that we are getting from DuPont, we will be evaluating where do we think we'll be able to get more capacity more efficiently out of the DuPont assets versus new build. And so we'll be evaluating that, and we do think there are some synergy opportunities there.

我可以補充一下，因為你確實問過這些資產可能來自哪裡。我想，就像我們今年看到的那樣，考慮到我們從杜邦獲得的大量資產，我們將評估哪些方面能夠更有效地利用杜邦資產而不是新建資產來提高產能。因此，我們將進行評估，我們確實認為其中存在一些協同效應的機會。

And then I think like you saw us do during COVID, with higher material pricing right now for steel and everything else, although we start to see it coming down, with trying to get a clearer view of demand in 2023, we think there's going to be some opportunity to delay some of the larger capital projects and use that time, like we did with Clear Lake, to get some efficiencies and savings in terms of construction costs and how we actually contract for the construction of those facilities.

然後我想就像你在新冠疫情期間看到的那樣，目前鋼鐵和其他所有材料的價格都較高，儘管我們開始看到價格下降，但為了更清楚地了解 2023 年的需求，我們認為會有一些機會推遲一些較大的資本項目，並利用這段時間，就像我們對 Clear Lake 所做的那樣，在建設成本以及我們如何實際承包這些設施的建設方面提高這些設施的建設效率和節省開支。

So I'd say it's nothing dramatic. We're not cutting to the bone. We still think use of capital for organic growth is a really good use of cash. But we are going to be cautious with how we invest in light of the uncertainty around the economics for next year.

所以我覺得沒什麼大不了的。我們不會大幅削減開支。我們仍然認為，利用資本實現有機成長是一種很好的現金利用方式。但考慮到明年經濟情勢的不確定性，我們將謹慎投資。

Okay. And then Lori, in reading your remarks, it sounds like you're comfortable enough with the order books as you see them here in July anyway. But in a scenario where the macro environment continued to move against, so to speak, how do you think about portfolio composition? In other words, do you see any levers that you could pull in terms of noncore assets that may be useful to accelerate the process of deleveraging, if necessary?

好的。然後，Lori，讀了你的評論，聽起來你對7月份的訂單情況很滿意。但是，在宏觀環境持續逆勢發展的情況下，你如何看待投資組合的組成？換句話說，你是否認為在必要時，可以利用非核心資產方面的任何槓桿來加速去槓桿化？

Yes. Look, it's something we look at all the time. We're always reviewing our portfolio. And as you've seen, we've made a number of moves over the last several years, whether it's an opportunistic move like the PPC divestiture that we did or some of the smaller divestitures we did around PPE and some other composites. So what I would say is, first, we have sufficient financing capacity on our balance sheet today to finance the deal with cash and committed debt. So we don't need to sell anything in the near term.

是的。你看，這是我們一直在關注的事情。我們一直在審查我們的投資組合。正如你所看到的，過去幾年我們採取了一系列舉措，無論是像我們之前剝離PPC業務那樣的投機性舉措，還是圍繞PPE和其他一些複合材料進行的一些規模較小的剝離。我想說的是，首先，我們目前的資產負債表上有足夠的融資能力，可以用現金和承諾債務來為這筆交易融資。所以我們短期內不需要出售任何資產。

And although -- I guess, that said, we will be opportunistic. We -- interestingly enough, we have actually had a reasonable large amount of inbound calls about some of our assets versus what we've typically seen in the last few years. So although the equity market has slowed down, we are getting a lot of calls. And that has given us the opportunity to look at a variety of our assets and really see if there's some opportunistic ability to monetize any of those, again similar to what we did for Polyplastics. So it's something we're looking at but not something we have to do.

儘管如此，我想，我們還是會抓住機會。有趣的是，我們實際上接到了相當多的關於部分資產的來電，這與過去幾年的情況不同。所以，儘管股市已經放緩，但我們還是接到了很多電話。這讓我們有機會審視我們的各種資產，看看是否有一些機會將其變現，就像我們收購寶理塑膠一樣。所以，這是我們正在考慮的事情，但不是我們必須做的事情。

Our next questions come from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·羅伯茨。

You called out the performance of Santoprene in the quarter. How did POM do? You've got a key competitor that's orphaned right now. I would think this is a pretty good environment for you to gain some share in POM.

您提到了Santoprene在本季的表現。 POM的表現如何？你們現在有一個關鍵競爭對手處於孤立狀態。我認為這對你們在POM獲得一些市場份額來說是一個相當不錯的環境。

Yes. Look, I'd say in POM, I think POM is performing as we had it for the year, expected it to perform. It continues to go into a lot of high value end applications. And I wouldn't say we see any real difference in demand or margins on POM now versus what we expected.

是的。就POM而言，我認為POM的表現與我們今年的表現以及預期一致。它繼續應用於許多高價值的終端應用。我認為目前POM的需求或利潤率與我們的預期相比不會有任何實質差異。

And then how did Ibn Sina do in the quarter? I would think this was a really good environment for them.

那麼伊本·西納在本季的表現如何？我認為這對他們來說是一個非常好的環境。

Yes. So obviously, with higher methanol prices last quarter, we saw that roll through in Ibn Sina. I think we called that out in our comments. We had a good bump up from Ibn Sina but mostly offset, all but about $5 million, offset by the KEPCO restructuring. And so it's done well. Again, remember, Ibn Sina is on a 1-quarter lag so we should continue to see help from Ibn Sina as we move into the third quarter as well.

是的。顯然，上季甲醇價格上漲，我們看到了Ibn Sina專案帶來的成長。我想我們在評論中已經提到了這一點。 Ibn Sina專案帶來了不錯的成長，但大部分都被抵消了，除了約500萬美元，其餘部分都被韓國電力公司重組抵消了。所以，Ibn Sina專案表現不錯。再次提醒，Ibn Sina專案落後了一個季度，所以隨著進入第三季度，我們應該會繼續看到Ibn Sina專案的幫助。

Our next questions come from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

A question around the trajectory of volumes within the Acetyl Chain. I take a look at the sequential uptick in volumes from Q4 to Q1, and it was 8%, even though if I remember correctly, there were a couple of turnarounds in Q1. And then I take a look at the sequential sort of downtick. In Q2, it was a 3% downtick. So I'm just trying to get a better sense of that trajectory from Q4 to Q1 to Q2, obviously keeping in mind the Europe situation, which is obviously prevalent in the first quarter as well.

關於乙醯基鏈產品銷售走勢的問題。我觀察了從第四季到第一季的銷售季成長，成長了8%，如果我沒記錯的話，第一季也出現了幾次回升。然後我觀察了銷量較上月下降的情況。第二季下降了3%。所以我只是想更了解從第四季到第一季再到第二季的銷售走勢，當然，我也會考慮到歐洲的情況，歐洲的情況在第一季也很明顯。

Yes. Look, the Q1 to Q2 is fairly straightforward. I mean, we did -- while we did have some small turnarounds in Q1 at Clear Lake, we had some larger impacts in Q2, which then we had to declare force majeure because of raw material -- outages at some of our raw material suppliers for Clear Lake. So that really -- that difference in volume, you see Q1 to Q2 is really caused by that force majeure event in Clear Lake.

是的。你看，第一季和第二季的情況相當簡單。我的意思是，雖然Clear Lake在第一季確實有一些小的轉機，但第二季受到了更大的影響，之後我們不得不宣布不可抗力，因為Clear Lake的一些原材料供應商發生了原材料供應中斷。所以，第一季和第二季的產量差異其實是由Clear Lake的不可抗力事件造成的。

Understood, understood. And now just on the strategic overhaul that you guys talked about within Acetate Tow. I mean, would a potential sale be considered? Obviously, I have memories of you guys sort of working down that part earlier, but that was obviously a very different time as well. But would that be something that you guys would think about as well? And maybe potentially some of these inbound calls, are they related to the AT business as well?

明白了，明白了。現在談談你們之前談到的Acetate Tow內部的策略調整。我的意思是，你們會考慮出售嗎？我記得你們之前討論過這方面的問題，但那顯然是一個非常不同的時期。你們也會考慮出售嗎？或許有些來電也與AT業務有關？

Look, what I'd say is when we've talked about it on these calls before, we would certainly consider a sale but we think we would come up against the same problems with anti-competition in Europe that we had previously on the deal that was contemplated. So I'd say we're really focused at this point on actions that we can take that are under our own control to improve the performance of that business.

我的意思是，我們之前在電話會議上討論過這個問題，我們當然會考慮出售，但我們認為我們會遇到與之前考慮的交易相同的歐洲反競爭問題。所以我認為我們目前真正關注的是那些我們能夠採取的、在我們自身控制範圍內的行動，以提升該業務的表現。

Yes. And Hassan, just to add to that, it's -- we've had a lot of value that's been created by operating Acetyl Chain as an integrated value chain and ensuring that in the downstream derivatives, the full value of the upstream is captured and contained in how we price the products. And so we believe there's a lot more overall enterprise value to be created by operating that business more integrated on a go-forward basis.

是的。哈桑，補充一下，透過將乙醯基鏈作為一條整合價值鏈運營，並確保在下游衍生品中，上游的全部價值都能被捕捉並體現在我們的產品定價中，我們創造了巨大的價值。因此，我們相信，未來透過更整合地經營該業務，可以創造更多的整體企業價值。

Our next questions come from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori and Scott, back to M&M. What have you learned over the last few months in your integration work that makes you more positive about the combination? Anything you've learned that may be not as hopeful as you would have thought initially?

洛里和斯科特，回到M&M的話題。在過去幾個月的整合工作中，你們有哪些收穫，讓你們對這次合併更加樂觀？你們發現哪些事情可能不像最初想像的那麼樂觀？

Yes. A couple of things. One, I have to say, having gotten to meet a good number of people now in the M&M organization, I am very positive about the people who will be joining the company, their passion for the business, and frankly, their excitement about joining Celanese and this opportunity we have to really make this world leader in Engineered Materials company by putting our assets together.

是的，有幾件事。首先，我必須說，我已經在M&M公司見過不少人了，我對即將加入公司的人充滿信心，他們對公司的熱情，坦白地說，他們對加入塞拉尼斯感到興奮，也對這次機會感到興奮，我們將透過整合彼此的資產，真正將這家全球領先的工程材料公司打造成世界級的領導者。

And so I think with any large M&A, you always have to worry about the cultural integration. And I would say what we see is for the folks who work in M&M, we think they're actually much closer to us in terms of culture than we probably thought before. Obviously, there's things we need to look out for and all that. But we're actually pretty -- we're very excited about the folks that we're getting and how they're going to -- how we can come together to really take the best of both companies and really have an outstanding Engineered Materials business.

所以我認為任何大型併購案，你總是需要擔心文化融合的問題。我想說的是，我們看到在M&M工作的員工，他們在文化方面實際上比我們之前想像的要接近我們。顯然，我們需要注意一些事情等等。但我們實際上非常——我們對即將獲得的員工以及他們將如何——如何真正地整合兩家公司的優勢，並真正打造出卓越的工程材料業務感到非常興奮。

I would say also, as we continue to dig into synergies, and Scott may want to try to comment more, but as we dig into synergies, the synergies that we had called out are real. They're there. We think we'll be able to probably get more, and we think we'll probably be able to get them faster. So we're working through all those steps now.

我想說的是，隨著我們繼續深入挖掘協同效應，史考特可能想嘗試發表更多評論，但隨著我們深入挖掘協同效應，我們之前提到的協同效應是真實存在的。它們就在那裡。我們認為我們可能能夠獲得更多，而且可能能夠更快實現。所以我們現在正在努力完成所有這些步驟。

And so therefore, we think there is even more value to be had. And I think some of the things that the premises we had around how we can continue to commercially build that business, take advantage of the pipeline model and those things, I think we, again, feel very positive about the value that can be generated with those molecules and using the pipeline model that we have used so effectively here in Celanese.

因此，我們認為它還有更大的價值空間。我認為，我們圍繞著如何繼續商業化地發展這項業務、如何利用管道模型等等所做的一些假設，讓我們對這些分子以及我們在塞拉尼斯有效運用的管道模型所能創造的價值充滿信心。

Yes. Just on that synergy point, I think we had originally baked in $150 million in the first year and $150 million in the second year of cost to achieve synergies. We think we're actually going to be able to spend less than that in year 1 especially and still get at or above the original synergy target of $75 million in that first year.

是的。就綜效而言，為了實現綜效，我們最初在第一年和第二年分別預留了1.5億美元的成本。我們認為，我們實際上能夠在第一年支出較少的資金，同時仍達到或超過最初7,500萬美元的綜效目標。

So there's a lot more lower-cost synergies or no cost synergies early on as we model that out, which we're excited about. And then one other thing to add is just the commercial teams. I think what we've learned is how we're structured, how M&M is structured, very similar in terms of how to approach customers, yet kind of maybe the governance of how we do it and they do it is very complementary.

因此，在我們建模的過程中，早期就出現了更多低成本協同效應，甚至零成本協同效應，我們對此感到興奮。另外，還有一點要補充，那就是商業團隊。我認為我們學到的是，我們的架構和M&M的架構在如何接觸客戶方面非常相似，但或許我們和他們的治理方式非常互補。

So there's some things that we believe are going to be things that enhance and evolve our model. And we've talked now for 5, 6 years about the continual evolution of our pipeline model and we think bringing M&M in is going to be a nice accelerator in that evolution, which should create some market opportunities going forward.

所以，我們相信有些事情將會增強和發展我們的模式。我們已經討論了五到六年，要持續改進我們的通路模式，我們認為引入M&M將會加速這一演變，這將在未來創造一些市場機會。

Great. That's very helpful. And just quickly, Acetate Tow, what's been the reaction from your customers to this new strategy or is it too early to get full feedback yet?

太好了。這很有幫助。 Acetate Tow，請問一下，你們的客戶對這個新策略有什麼反應？還是現在就得到完整的回饋還為時過早？

Yes, I think it's too early. I mean, we're still working internally to develop our models and how exactly that works. So we'll see more, I guess, in the second half as we go out with some changes to our customers.

是的，我認為現在還為時過早。我的意思是，我們仍在內部發展我們的模型，並研究其具體運作方式。所以，我想，下半年我們會看到更多變化，屆時我們將向客戶推出一些改進。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

So just in general, seeing a pretty significant number of acetyl outages over the last 24 months, not just Celanese, kind of industry-wide and at a frequency we're not used to seeing. So what's the issue here? I mean, is this like everybody took ownership of their CO units and it's become a problem? Are they underinvested? How -- why does everybody keep going down?

總的來說，在過去24個月裡，乙醯基裝置停產的次數相當多，不只是塞拉尼斯，而是整個產業都出現了停產，而且停產頻率我們以前從未見過。那麼，問題出在哪裡呢？是不是每個人都把各自的二氧化碳裝置當成了自己的所有，結果卻成了問題？是不是投資不足？為什麼所有裝置的產量都在持續下降？

It's an interesting question and I have to see the data because I'm not -- if I'm looking, thinking on my own memory, I'd actually say within Celanese, our acetyl units are running probably more reliably than they have in their history. So I'd have to see, look at the industry numbers to see if that's really accurate.

這是一個有趣的問題，我必須查看數據，因為我——如果我查看一下，憑著自己的記憶，我會說，在塞拉尼斯，我們的乙醯基裝置現在的運作可能比以往任何時候都更可靠。所以我必須查看行業數據，才能確定這是否真的準確。

I don't think there's any common themes here. I mean, I do think coming out of COVID, we saw people running facilities very hard because there was that sudden uptick in demand. And so I think turnarounds are pushed off and those sorts of things, and you're seeing people either having to take those turnarounds or maybe having pushed a bit too long and having unplanned downtime. But I -- there's nothing other kind of systematic kind of failure in the system that I see that would support that there's an issue. I think it may just be timing and maybe just recently bias in terms of -- always thinking things are worse today than they were in the past.

我認為這裡沒有什麼共同點。我的意思是，我確實認為，在新冠疫情結束後，我們看到人們非常努力地運作設施，因為需求突然上升。所以我認為週轉時間被推遲了，諸如此類的事情，你會看到人們要么不得不進行週轉，要么可能拖得太久了，導致計劃外的停機。但我——我沒有看到系統中存在任何其他系統性故障來證明有問題。我認為這可能只是時機問題，也可能是最近的偏見——總是認為今天的情況比過去更糟。

The one thing I would add though, Matthew, I think it's important, we brought this up on other calls is we are starting to see with some of the logistical challenges, we're seeing more Western Hemisphere downstream demand come back online and the demand is higher. And yet it's harder to get product out of Asia, particularly China, into the Western Hemisphere.

不過，馬修，我想補充一點，我認為很重要。我們在其他電話會議上也提到過，我們開始看到一些物流挑戰，西半球的下游需求逐漸恢復，而且需求更高。然而，將產品從亞洲（尤其是中國）運送到西半球變得更加困難。

And I think we've talked now for a number of years about the need for capacity in Asia to flow to the Western Hemisphere to keep things balanced. And that's been really challenged in this period of time. And so I think without that coming over into the West, that has kind of made some of these outages more visible in the market than maybe what they had been historically.

我認為，我們多年來一直在討論亞洲的產能需要流向西半球，以保持平衡。而這段時間，這確實遇到了挑戰。因此，我認為，如果這些產能無法流向西方，那麼一些市場中斷事件的曝光度可能比以往更高。

That's a fair point, yes. And then how much revenue did KEPCO switch and Santoprene add to EM in the second quarter?

是的，你說得對。那麼，韓國電力公司（KEPCO）的Switch和Santoprene在第二季為EM帶來了多少收入呢？

So versus second quarter last year, Santoprene, about $15 million versus last year when we didn't have Santoprene.

因此，與去年第二季相比，Santoprene 的銷售額約為 1500 萬美元，而去年我們還沒有 Santoprene。

And KEPCO was pretty minimal. It's pretty immaterial. It's not far off from that Santoprene number, but it was pretty minimal.

韓國電力公司（KEPCO）的損失非常小。這無關緊要。雖然和山都平（Santoprene）的資料相差不遠，但損失非常小。

And then -- if I -- with KEPCO, was that like it's a full quarter or was there a partial quarter there?

然後 - 如果我 - 對於韓國電力公司來說，那是一個完整的季度還是部分季度？

It's a partial quarter because there's still inventory that needed to be sold out of the JV so it was pretty small in the quarter.

這是一個部分季度，因為合資公司仍有庫存需要出售，所以本季的庫存相當少。

But remember, then it actually came out of equity earnings as well, so it's kind of netted out in the total bottom line.

但請記住，它實際上也來自股權收益，因此它在總底線上被抵消了。

Sure. I was just trying to get a clear read on volumes for EM on the quarter.

當然。我只是想清楚地了解本季新興市場的成交量。

Sure.

當然。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH.

我們的下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matthew Blair。

With all the volatility in oil, nat gas and coal, has the cost curve changed for acetyls? And do you have a sense on operating rates by region?

鑑於石油、天然氣和煤炭價格的波動，乙醯基的成本曲線是否改變了？您了解各地區的開工率嗎？

Yes, I don't think the cost curve has really switched. I mean, the only place I would say you really see kind of things really out of whack, I mean, things have tended to move in parity, but the thing that's really out of whack, of course, is natural gas in Europe. Compared to oil, if you look at natural gas prices today with the cutback in the Nord Stream and everything, I mean, it's probably the equivalent of $350 oil.

是的，我認為成本曲線並沒有真正轉變。我的意思是，我認為唯一真正出現失衡的地方，也就是價格趨於持平的地方，但真正失衡的當然是歐洲的天然氣。與石油相比，如果你看看今天的天然氣價格，考慮到北溪天然氣管道的減產等等，我的意思是，它可能相當於每桶350美元的石油價格。

Now again, not a big factor for us on acetyls but bigger factor for Engineered Materials. So I would say for acetyls, the cost curve continues to be, even at these higher natural gas prices in the U.S., still a significant advantage in U.S. Gulf Coast, acetyl production and then oil in Singapore and coal in China remain about the same. And then again, Europe is a little bit upside down but that's not a big factor for us on acetyls.

再說一遍，這對我們來說不是一個重要因素，但對工程材料來說卻是一個重要因素。所以，我想說，即使美國天然氣價格上漲，乙醯基的成本曲線在美國墨西哥灣沿岸仍然具有顯著優勢，乙醯基產量、新加坡的石油和中國的煤炭產量也基本上保持不變。歐洲的情況略有不同，但這對我們乙醯基來說不是一個重要因素。

Yes. I think it's also important to think about landed cost curve because ultimately, that's what really matters. And because of that logistical dynamic that I talked about a few minutes ago, I mean, that certainly is holding things up because it's really expensive to move product right now, even if you can get the boats out of China into Europe or the U.S.

是的。我認為考慮到岸成本曲線也很重要，因為最終這才是真正重要的。由於我幾分鐘前談到的物流動態，這肯定會阻礙事情的發展，因為現在運輸產品的成本非常高，即使你可以把船從中國運送到歐洲或美國。

Got it. And then, Lori, I think you mentioned the currency headwind of about $10 million in the second quarter. Do you have a similar number for 2022 that's embedded in your guidance?

明白了。然後，Lori，我記得你提到了第二季約1000萬美元的貨幣逆差。你的2022年業績指引裡有類似的數字嗎？

Yes. So the $10 million was just for EM. If you actually look at quarter-to-quarter, currency was almost $25 million just from Q1 '22 to second quarter '22. So we do have a number embedded in the full year guidance. I'm not sure what it is right off the top of my head, but Scott, you may have it?

是的。所以這1000萬美元只是用於新興市場。如果實際上以季度來看，光是從2022年第一季到第二季度，貨幣支出就接近2,500萬美元。所以我們的全年業績指引裡確實包含一個數字。我不太清楚具體數字，不過Scott，你可能知道吧？

Yes. I mean, just from a general rule of thumb, about a $0.01 change in the euro is call it about $7 million of earnings per quarter. So it's sizable on an annualized basis. And as Lori talked about earlier in the call, the teams both in Engineered Materials and Acetyls have done a phenomenal job of offsetting that. So it's sizable and it's been a pretty significant impact on us for the full year. We've effectively baked in very similar euro rates to what we're seeing today into our back half guidance.

是的。我的意思是，根據一般經驗法則，歐元每變動0.01美元，每季的收益就會減少約700萬美元。所以以年率計算，這筆錢相當可觀。正如Lori之前在電話會議上提到的，工程材料和乙醯基業務的團隊在抵消這一影響方面做得非常出色。所以這筆錢相當可觀，而且對我們全年都產生了相當顯著的影響。我們實際上已經將與目前非常相似的歐元匯率納入了下半年的業績指引中。

Our next questions come from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess first off, you went through some nice commentary in your prepared remarks on natural gas in Europe, and you just kind of addressed that a little bit as well as being somewhat out of whack. But I guess, given some of those actions you have taken, it does appear that you're expecting this level of pricing to remain on a structurally higher basis into the foreseeable future. Is that the case? And I guess, if so, how do we think about EM and the impact from these higher costs in the next couple of years?

首先，您在準備好的發言中對歐洲天然氣發表了一些很好的評論，您只是稍微談了一下這個問題，但表達得有些不著邊際。但我想，考慮到您採取的一些行動，您似乎預計在可預見的未來，這種價格水平將維持在結構性高位。是這樣嗎？如果是這樣，那麼我們如何看待未來幾年新興市場以及這些成本上漲的影響？

Yes. Look, I think the energy surcharge that was put in place by the Engineered Materials group has been very effective in helping us maintain margins and our customers understand it and aren't necessarily happy but have been willing to pay it, and we haven't seen any major impact on volume because of the higher price.

是的。我認為工程材料集團實施的能源附加費非常有效地幫助我們維持了利潤率，我們的客戶也理解這一點，雖然不一定滿意，但還是願意支付。而且我們也沒有看到價格上漲對銷售造成任何重大影響。

Now as we move forward and if we continue to stay at this kind of $60 per million Btu we're seeing today as we move into the winter period, I do think we will see energy pricing, not necessarily the pass-through on our materials, but just energy pricing for producers of goods in Europe being negatively impacted by energy, whether it be price or even availability at a certain point in time. And I think that's more likely that price at their own facilities is more likely to lead to demand destruction for EM than necessarily the energy cost pass-through that we're putting on our product.

現在，如果我們繼續維持目前這種每百萬英熱單位60美元的價格，並進入冬季，我認為能源價格將受到影響，這不一定是轉嫁到我們材料上，而只是歐洲商品生產商的能源價格將受到能源的負面影響，無論是價格還是某個時間點的供應情況。我認為，更有可能的是，他們自身設施的價格比我們產品上的能源成本轉嫁更有可能導致歐洲商品需求的破壞。

Okay, that's helpful. And then as a follow-up, similarly, you noted there is a CapEx reduction here and potentially even greater in '23. Could you just describe that a little bit more? And I guess, you said you'd get to the 3x leverage in a couple of years. I'm just wondering if you have greater levers to reduce CapEx by even more to stay on track with that deleveraging or if it's not really dependent on that.

好的，這很有幫助。然後作為後續問題，同樣地，您提到現在的資本支出有所減少，而且在2023年可能會進一步減少。您能否更詳細地描述一下？您之前說過，幾年後槓桿率會達到3倍。我只是想知道，您是否有更大的槓桿來進一步降低資本支出，以保持去槓桿的勢頭，或者說，去槓桿是否並不真正依賴於此。

Yes. Look, we could cut our CapEx in half if we needed to. We've done it before. We did it when COVID happened. We're not going to cut it so far that we can't maintain and run our facilities in a safe and reliable way.

是的。你看，如果需要的話，我們可以把資本支出削減一半。我們以前就這麼做過。新冠疫情爆發時我們就這麼做了。我們不會削減太多，以免無法安全可靠地維護和營運我們的設施。

I also don't think it's going to be necessary to do that in order to meet the financial objectives that we've set out around this deal. But we always have those levers to further delay projects or cancel projects. But again, we're really looking at what is the long-term health of this business, and there's a lot of -- in Engineered Materials, there's a lot of expansions we want to do in polymers that aren't coming over from DuPont, that's our base polymers. Just like in Acetyls, we want to continue our expansions in VAE and VAM. Of course, we're going to finish the Clear Lake product -- project.

我也不認為為了實現我們圍繞這筆交易設定的財務目標而必須這樣做。但我們始終有這些手段來進一步延後專案或取消專案。不過，我們真正關注的是這項業務的長期健康發展，在工程材料業務方面，我們有許多業務擴張，這些業務並非來自杜邦，而是我們的基礎聚合物。就像乙醯基業務一樣，我們希望繼續在VAE和VAM領域擴張。當然，我們將完成Clear Lake產品專案。

So there are additional levers if we were to need them, if we were to get into a significant recession, which we're not really seeing the signs of now and significant demand destruction. Obviously, there are more levers we can pull. But the kind of levels we're talking about now, $50 million this year, maybe $50 million to $100 million next year, these kind of levels are things that we think it makes sense to do just in light of the deal and the opportunity we may have to more efficiently produce from the DuPont assets and in light of current high prices for contractors, for steel and for all of those other things, just slight delaying a bit.

所以，如果我們需要的話，如果我們陷入嚴重的經濟衰退（目前我們還沒有看到這種跡象）以及嚴重的需求破壞，我們還有其他的槓桿可以運用。顯然，我們還可以採取更多槓桿。但就我們現在討論的水平而言，今年5000萬美元，明年可能5000萬到1億美元，考慮到這筆交易，考慮到我們可能有機會更有效率地利用杜邦資產進行生產，考慮到目前承包商、鋼材以及所有其他材料的價格都很高，我們認為採取這種水平是合理的，只是稍微推遲了一點。

Yes. Just to provide a little more color for you, Arun. We had baked in $800 million of combined capital in 2023 for our base business plus M&M. And just given some of the dynamics that Lori talked about, we don't see needing to spend nearly that level. So we know we're going to be able to get a chunk of that back in cash to be able to offset some of the higher interest expense we talked about.

是的。阿倫，我再補充一點。我們在2023年為基礎業務和M&M業務預留了8億美元的資本。考慮到洛里提到的一些動態，我們認為不需要投入那麼多資金。所以我們知道，我們能夠收回其中很大一部分現金，以抵消我們之前提到的部分更高的利息支出。

Darryl, make the next question our last one, please.

達裡爾，請將下一個問題作為我們的最後一個問題。

Our final questions come from the line of Steve Richardson with Evercore ISI.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Richardson。

This is Kiesean on for Steve. So I'm looking at Engineering Materials, it's undergone quite an impressive transformation. So I was just wondering if you could touch a little bit more on what drove your EM results, especially in China in terms of your EV exposure. And where do you see that going through year-end?

我是Kiesean，Steve。我正在關注工程材料業務，它經歷了令人印象深刻的轉型。所以，我想請您再談談是什麼推動了你們在新興市場（EM）的業績，尤其是在中國的電動車業務。您預計到年底，這項業務的前景如何？

Yes. As I said earlier, we actually saw very high demand in China despite a slowdown -- a significant slowdown in auto build because of the issues with COVID. I think there's a couple of things was: one, it's our great folks in China who are out there. We also tend to -- and really continuing to push the commercial models and new volume, which comes from the project pipeline.

是的。正如我之前所說，儘管受新冠疫情影響，中國汽車製造業大幅放緩，但我們實際上看到了非常高的需求。我認為有幾件事：首先，得益於我們在中國優秀的員工。我們也傾向於——並且確實在持續推動商業車型和新車銷量，這些都來自項目儲備。

It's also the fact that we tend to go in premium vehicles, which tend to be prioritized over other vehicles. And then certainly, EVs in China where we have a very large presence. EVs continue to be prioritized by the automakers, and we continue to see a lot of material going into the EV market, especially for GUR into lithium-ion battery separator films.

另一個原因是，我們傾向於高端汽車，而這些汽車往往比其他車型更受青睞。當然，在中國，我們的電動車業務也非常龐大。電動車仍然是汽車製造商的優先發展方向，我們也看到大量材料湧入電動車市場，尤其是GUR公司生產的鋰離子電池隔膜。

That is all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the call back over to Brandon Ayache for any closing comments.

今天提問時間就到這裡。現在，我想把電話轉回給布蘭登·阿亞什，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you. We'd like to thank everybody for listening in today. As always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions. Darryl, please go ahead and close up the call.

謝謝！感謝各位今天的收聽。像往常一樣，電話會議結束後，我們隨時準備回答您的後續問題。 Darryl，請您結束電話會議。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。祝您今天過得愉快。