塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎來到塞拉尼斯 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Brandon Ayache。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Darryl. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese distributed its first quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

謝謝你，達里爾。歡迎來到塞拉尼斯公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Brandon Ayache。今天和我一起打電話的是董事會主席兼首席執行官 Lori Ryerkerk；和首席財務官 Scott Richardson。昨天下午，塞拉尼斯通過美國商業資訊發布了第一季度收益報告，並在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了準備好的評論。提醒一下，我們今天將討論非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些措施的定義以及與可比的 GAAP 措施的調節。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC. Since we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll go ahead and ask you, Darryl to open it up for questions.

今天的演示文稿還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言，可以在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。包含所有這些材料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。由於我們昨天發布了準備好的評論，因此我們將繼續請 Darryl 打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Michael Leithead with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Michael Leithead。

First question, Lori, just high level on the full year EPS guide. You're doing about 450 of EPS in the first half, which implies about $7 in the second half. I assume synergies, Clear Lake, a few other things are helping in that back half. So I guess, is there a way to broadly characterize what you're assuming for market demand recovery in the second half versus, say, controllable actions?

第一個問題，Lori，全年 EPS 指南只是高水平。上半年你的 EPS 約為 450，這意味著下半年約為 7 美元。我假設協同作用，Clear Lake，還有一些其他的東西在後半部分有所幫助。所以我想，有沒有一種方法可以廣泛地描述你對下半年市場需求復甦的假設與可控行動的對比？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Mike. I mean you're right. We need about on average $1 lift in Q3 and Q4 from where we were in the first half. And so our focus really is on controllable actions to the extent we can. I mean, M&M volume recovery we saw about a 10% lift from Q4 to Q1, a similar lift from Q1 to Q2. We continue to expect volume recovery in the M&M business as well. Productivity, which is coming in at the top of our range for all of our businesses, M&M price optimization, synergies, which we'll see building across the quarter. We also do expect some improving demand again for in its entirety. We were up about 10% in the first quarter. We'll have some increase again in Q2, but we do expect things to get better still in the back half of the year. As we see kind of the EU and Asia competitive dynamic improving and see the -- in destocking in the U.S.

是的。謝謝你的問題，邁克。我的意思是你是對的。我們需要在第三季度和第四季度從上半年的水平上平均提升 1 美元。因此，我們的重點實際上是在我們力所能及的範圍內採取可控行動。我的意思是，從第四季度到第一季度，我們看到 M&M 銷量恢復了大約 10%，從第一季度到第二季度也有類似的提升。我們繼續期待 M&M 業務的銷量回升。生產力，這是我們所有業務的最高水平，M&M 價格優化，協同效應，我們將在整個季度看到這一點。我們也確實預計整體需求會再次有所改善。我們在第一季度上漲了約 10%。我們將在第二季度再次有所增長，但我們確實預計下半年情況會好轉。正如我們看到的那樣，歐盟和亞洲的競爭動態正在改善，並看到美國的去庫存。

And then we should have some tailwinds from raw materials and energy cost moderation, which should help with margins in all of our businesses and especially in EM as we see those costs flow through to inventory. And start to hit the P&L. So I think that's kind of what we're in control of. In terms of where we see the markets going, if we take it first by region, in China, we do expect modest demand improvement in Q2 and into the second half. We do see markets recovering in China, especially auto. And we continue to see some improvement in utilization in acetyls and hopefully get acetyls coming off the cost curve. Especially now as we're going into some turnarounds in Asia, we do see some upward price movement and some margin expansion in acetyls. In Europe, we do expect continued modest demand improvement as well. We saw that through Q2. We expect that to continue at a slow pace into the second half. And then as I said, we would expect, as Asia proves we see less imports from Asia into Europe which should help margins in Europe get back to a better level. And in the U.S., again, we know a lot of people are calling out recession. We're not seeing that in our order book. I mean however you want to define recession. What we're continuing to see is general recovery across a lot of markets.

然後我們應該從原材料和能源成本節制中獲得一些順風，這應該有助於我們所有業務的利潤率，尤其是在我們看到這些成本流入庫存時在新興市場。並開始打擊損益。所以我認為這是我們可以控制的。就我們所看到的市場走向而言，如果我們首先按地區來看，在中國，我們確實預計第二季度和下半年的需求會適度改善。我們確實看到中國市場正在復蘇，尤其是汽車市場。我們繼續看到乙酰基的利用率有所提高，並希望乙酰基能夠擺脫成本曲線。尤其是現在，隨著我們在亞洲的一些轉機，我們確實看到了一些價格上漲和乙酰基的一些利潤率擴張。在歐洲，我們確實預計需求也會持續適度改善。我們在第二季度看到了這一點。我們預計下半年將繼續保持緩慢的步伐。然後正如我所說，我們預計，正如亞洲所證明的那樣，我們看到從亞洲到歐洲的進口減少，這應該有助於歐洲的利潤率恢復到更好的水平。在美國，我們知道很多人都在呼籲經濟衰退。我們在訂單簿中沒有看到這一點。我的意思是你想定義衰退。我們繼續看到的是許多市場的普遍復甦。

We still had some destocking in Q2, but we expect that destocking to be mostly over as we go into the second half of the year. And so if you look at end markets, auto has continued to be quite resilient in the EM portfolio that's helping both our legacy businesses as well as our M&M businesses. 2023 auto builds, we still expect to be up 3% to 4% of 2022, and we're at a run rate right now that already achieved that. And we are seeing our own auto volume recovery at a pace significantly better than that. And really building on the project pipeline and all the work that's been done in the last several years to build that pipeline, both for the transition to EV as well as increasing our content per vehicle we see auto being a fairly robust end market for us this year even with just a moderate growth in the actual build themselves. I would say the most sluggish sector we still see and is baked into our forward look is construction. Although we see some modest improvements in Europe and Asia and Europe, mostly on the renovation market as energy efficiency regulations come into effect. We still see it could be quite slow in the U.S. and in China, where we've not seen any recovery in really commercial construction yet at this time.

我們在第二季度仍然進行了一些去庫存，但我們預計隨著我們進入下半年，去庫存將基本結束。因此，如果你看看終端市場，汽車在 EM 投資組合中繼續具有相當大的彈性，這對我們的傳統業務和 M&M 業務都有幫助。 2023 年的汽車製造，我們仍然預計到 2022 年將增長 3% 至 4%，而且我們現在的運行率已經實現了這一目標。我們看到我們自己的汽車銷量恢復速度明顯好於此。並且真正建立在項目管道和過去幾年為構建該管道所做的所有工作的基礎上，無論是為了過渡到電動汽車還是增加我們每輛車的內容，我們認為汽車對我們來說是一個相當強大的終端市場年，即使只是適度增長，實際構建自己。我想說的是，我們仍然看到並納入我們前瞻性展望的最低迷的行業是建築業。儘管我們在歐洲、亞洲和歐洲看到了一些適度的改善，但隨著能效法規的生效，主要是在翻新市場上。我們仍然認為美國和中國的發展速度可能相當緩慢，目前我們還沒有看到真正商業建築的任何復蘇。

And then non-auto -- the other non-auto durables, I would say, electronics, electrification is improving. There's a lot of need for more electrification around the world, and so we see that as a growing market this year. But in consumer electronics and consumer -- other consumer appliances, we still see that lagging 2022, especially in the U.S. And then finally, packaging, we do see resilient growth in packaging, especially in the U.S. I think about Amazon and everything that's getting shipped from online shopping. And also the push for sustainable packaging solutions, but paints and coatings is a bit slow tied to construction. So that's probably a bit more than you will before, Mike, but that's a little bit of a summary of kind of where we see things going in the second half and the underlying trends that support our confidence in that $11 to $12 range that we put out for the year.

然後是非汽車 - 其他非汽車耐用品，我想說，電子產品，電氣化正在改善。全世界對更多電氣化的需求很大，因此我們認為這是今年不斷增長的市場。但在消費電子產品和消費品——其他消費電器方面，我們仍然看到 2022 年的滯後，尤其是在美國。最後，包裝，我們確實看到了包裝的彈性增長，尤其是在美國。我想到了亞馬遜和所有正在發貨的東西從網上購物。以及可持續包裝解決方案的推動，但油漆和塗料與建築的聯繫有點慢。所以這可能比你以前想的要多一點，邁克，但這是對我們在下半年看到的事情的一種總結，以及支持我們對我們所設定的 11 到 12 美元區間信心的潛在趨勢出去一年。

Great. That's super helpful. And then maybe second, you talked in the prepared commentary, Lori, a bit about some of the integration actions you're taking in nylon 66 I was just hoping you could expand a bit about how you're currently thinking about your approach to the 66 value chain and just maybe how Celanese going forward might be operating differently than, say, M&M stand-alone nylon polymerization business or just even the legacy Celanese compounding business there?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後也許其次，你在準備好的評論中談到了，Lori，關於你在尼龍 66 中採取的一些整合行動，我只是希望你能擴展一下你目前是如何考慮你的方法的66 價值鏈以及塞拉尼斯未來的運營方式可能與 M&M 獨立的尼龍聚合業務或什至是那裡的傳統塞拉尼斯複合業務不同？

Yes. So let me talk a little bit about 66 in general, starting with what we're doing immediately around 66. So in the past, Celanese has not been backward integrated in 66. So we were just a purchaser of nylon Polymer, which was great when prices are low, not so great when prices are high. With DuPont, we've been able to add the backward integration. What we're doing differently is we've been able to secure a different raw material contract and instead of being forced to produce PA66 polymer we have options. We have flexibility. We have optionality. We can choose to produce backward integrated nylon polymer when it makes sense, we can make less and buy nylon polymers, from others, if that makes more sense, we can make less of it if we see the demand profile not supporting higher production rates, and we can make more of it if we see a sudden resurgence of demand.

是的。所以讓我談談 66 的一般情況，從我們在 66 周圍立即做的事情開始。所以在過去，Celanese 並沒有在 66 中向後整合。所以我們只是尼龍聚合物的採購商，這很棒價格低的時候，價格高的時候就沒那麼好了。通過杜邦，我們已經能夠添加向後集成。我們所做的不同之處在於，我們已經能夠獲得不同的原材料合同，而不是被迫生產 PA66 聚合物，我們有選擇權。我們有靈活性。我們有選擇性。我們可以選擇在有意義的時候生產落後的集成尼龍聚合物，我們可以減少生產並從其他人那裡購買尼龍聚合物，如果這更有意義，如果我們看到需求情況不支持更高的生產率，我們可以減少生產，如果我們看到需求突然復甦，我們可以生產更多。

And so that flexibility, which is much more like we run our other businesses like GUR and Palm and even acetyl, gives us a degree of flexibility and ability to make value across a wide range of market conditions that DuPont really didn't have or really didn't exercise. And so we've already done that. We've gotten most of the Celanese nylon grade already certified to start with the DuPont polymer. We've been using DuPont polymer out of inventory, raw home, compounding it to make the Celanese branded products and we've been flexing that to really start managing some of the inventories that had been built last year for both raw and for finished polymers in the DuPont product line. And so that's a degree of flexibility and a way of running the business, which is different. We've also talked about how we're pricing differently pushing price on more differentiated grade lowering prices in some case and more standard grades to really get our inventory in line with the demand profile. And therefore, the cost profile of our inventory in line with the demand profile.

因此，這種靈活性，更像是我們經營其他業務，如 GUR 和 Palm，甚至是乙酰基，給了我們一定程度的靈活性和能力，使我們能夠在廣泛的市場條件下創造價值，而杜邦確實沒有或真的沒有沒有運動。所以我們已經做到了。我們已經獲得了大部分 Celanese 尼龍等級的認證，可以從 DuPont 聚合物開始。我們一直在使用杜邦聚合物的庫存、原材料，將其複合以製造塞拉尼斯品牌產品，我們一直在調整這一點，以真正開始管理去年為原材料和成品聚合物建立的一些庫存在杜邦產品線中。因此，這是一種不同程度的靈活性和經營業務的方式。我們還討論了我們如何以不同的方式定價，在某些情況下以更差異化的等級降低價格和更多的標準等級來真正使我們的庫存符合需求情況。因此，我們庫存的成本概況符合需求概況。

So that's kind of the immediate things we're doing. As we think about PA66 longer term, of course, we spent a lot of time studying this before we went into this deal. We know a lot of people are like, well, PA66 is under hood, that's going to decline. We don't see it that way. I mean if we look at electric vehicles as they're coming on the market, we find that the addressable content per vehicle is almost double compared to what we've traditionally have in IPE. And we think a lot of those new opportunities in electric vehicles also extends to PA66 as we see performance requirements increasing for electric vehicles. So longer battery life, higher heat management required. These things are very suited to PA66. So if you think about parts, the PA66 is suited for an EV, things where you replace metal for lightweighting when you need the strength of a PA66, things like battery cell frames are in place. The brackets and the mounts for the electric motors and then things in the electrical system like high-voltage connectors, and it's the PA66, standard grades, but also the high temperature [nylon] grades, which are particularly applicable here and which we didn't have in our portfolio prior to the acquisition of M&M. And I would say for our legacy EM business, we're about halfway to capturing the addressable content for EVs. Obviously, the M&M business was not as focused there. And so not as far as long, but we are using our project pipeline to also drive these applications of PA66 into EVs now that we have those molecules available to us.

所以這就是我們正在做的直接事情。當然，當我們從長遠考慮 PA66 時，我們在進行這筆交易之前花了很多時間研究它。我們知道很多人都喜歡，好吧，PA66 在引擎蓋下，它會下降。我們不這麼看。我的意思是，如果我們觀察即將上市的電動汽車，我們會發現每輛車的可尋址內容幾乎是我們在 IPE 中傳統擁有的內容的兩倍。我們認為電動汽車的許多新機遇也延伸到 PA66，因為我們看到電動汽車的性能要求不斷提高。因此電池壽命更長，需要更高的熱管理。這些東西非常適合 PA66。因此，如果您考慮零件，PA66 適用於 EV，當您需要 PA66 的強度時，您可以用金屬代替金屬來減輕重量，電池框架等零件就位。電動機的支架和支架，然後是電氣系統中的東西，如高壓連接器，它是 PA66，標準等級，還有高溫 [尼龍] 等級，它們在這里特別適用，我們沒有這樣做。在收購 M&M 之前，我們的投資組合中沒有。我想說的是，對於我們的傳統 EM 業務，我們大約已經完成了為電動汽車捕獲可尋址內容的一半。顯然，M&M 業務並沒有那麼專注於那裡。所以不會那麼久，但我們正在使用我們的項目管道將 PA66 的這些應用推向電動汽車，因為我們已經有了這些分子可供我們使用。

And I think if you think about PA66 beyond electric vehicles, there are huge applications there in electrical and electronics which was an area that M&M was really underrepresented in historically. So think about electrification and the need for not just electrification per vehicle, but for everything you think about people wanting to get out of natural gas for homes, but basically, the electrification of everything. All the outlets would say electrification, electricity demand is going to more than double in the next 5 years. So with that comes data management centers, power distribution centers. All of these things require polymer and specifically, all of them can benefit from the availability of PA66. And so we think there's going to be a strong pull-through for PA66 as the demand grows for building out our electrical infrastructure. And again, this is an area Celanese has been in for some years, and now we're able to apply that market knowledge and that end use knowledge to the PA66 profile and pull those volumes through using the project pipeline model.

而且我認為，如果你考慮電動汽車以外的 PA66，那麼它在電氣和電子領域有著巨大的應用，而這是 M&M 在歷史上真正被忽視的領域。因此，想想電氣化，不僅需要每輛車電氣化，還需要考慮人們想要擺脫天然氣用於家庭的一切，但基本上，一切都需要電氣化。所有的媒體都會說電氣化，電力需求在未來 5 年內將增加一倍以上。因此，隨之而來的是數據管理中心、配電中心。所有這些都需要聚合物，具體來說，所有這些都可以從 PA66 的可用性中受益。因此，我們認為，隨著建設我們的電氣基礎設施的需求不斷增長，PA66 將獲得強勁的推動力。再一次，這是塞拉尼斯多年來一直從事的領域，現在我們能夠將市場知識和最終用途知識應用到 PA66 配置文件中，並通過使用項目管道模型來拉動這些量。

Our next question has come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JP Morgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 JP Morgan 的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I think you reduced your earnings per share goal by $1. What was the source of decrease?

我認為您將每股收益目標降低了 1 美元。減少的來源是什麼？

Yes. If we look at the first half, our first half came in about where we -- in total, where we expected the first half to come in. With 1Q being up because of some unanticipated commercial opportunities for spot market volumes as well as some pull forward from the second quarter, especially in auto, a few parts for auto and a few for medical implants. And so since we don't expect those -- we're not counting on those unexpected opportunities reoccurring in the second quarter. Second quarter has been a little bit lower. And we are seeing the demand in the second quarter not build as quickly as we had thought at this time last quarter. And so that reduction to $11 to $12 really reflects that slower demand growth that we're seeing across second quarter going into third quarter and just accounting for that in our outlook for the second half.

是的。如果我們看一下上半年，我們的上半年大約是我們 - 總的來說，我們預計上半年會出現什麼情況。由於現貨市場交易量的一些意想不到的商業機會以及一些拉動，第一季度有所上升從第二季度開始，特別是在汽車領域，一些汽車零部件和一些醫療植入物。因此，由於我們不期望這些 - 我們不會指望第二季度再次出現那些意想不到的機會。第二季度略低。我們看到第二季度的需求沒有我們上個季度這個時候想像的那麼快。因此，減少到 11 美元至 12 美元確實反映了我們在第二季度到第三季度看到的需求增長放緩，並且只是在我們下半年的展望中說明了這一點。

Is it fair to say that as a base case, second quarter volumes and prices are flat sequentially?

可以說作為基本情況，第二季度的銷量和價格環比持平嗎？

I expect for volume for Engineered Materials. We should see the volumes increasing moderately across the second half, especially in M&M as we have market share recovery and just base business demand increasing in automotive and some of the other end applications. I think for acetyls, we also expect moderate growth into the second quarter as we start to see more recovery in the end markets. Right now for acetyl, pricing is a little -- is challenged, although we are seeing some early green shoots on China asset pricing and margin expansion, it's very new, though. So although we've baked what we've seen so far into our projections, we think there's still some more room there, possible upside there.

我期望工程材料的數量。我們應該會看到下半年銷量溫和增長，尤其是在 M&M，因為我們的市場份額有所恢復，而且汽車和其他一些終端應用的基礎業務需求也在增加。我認為對於乙酰基，我們還預計第二季度將出現溫和增長，因為我們開始看到終端市場出現更多複蘇。目前，對於乙酰基來說，定價有點 - 受到挑戰，儘管我們看到中國資產定價和利潤率擴張出現了一些早期的萌芽，但這是非常新的。因此，儘管我們已經將目前所見所聞納入我們的預測，但我們認為那裡還有更多空間，可能還有上行空間。

And I think for Engineered Materials, we do expect some margin expansion as we go to the second half particularly as we see the lower raws and energy costs from the first half pulling through the volume and inventory, which will help with margin expansion in the second half.

而且我認為對於工程材料，我們確實預計下半年利潤率會有所增長，特別是因為我們看到上半年的原材料和能源成本較低，從而帶動了銷量和庫存，這將有助於下半年的利潤率增長一半。

Our next questions come from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ghansham Panjabi 與 Baird 的對話。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Lori, maybe you could just give us a bit more color on the demand spike that you saw in March, maybe stepping back. Is there any -- was there any sort of theme in particular that you can hone in on any region in particular that saw that increase? And as you kind of step back, was it more so of a pull-forward from 2Q that benefited March, do you think?

謝謝。大家，早安。 Lori，也許你可以給我們更多關於你在三月份看到的需求高峰的顏色，也許退後一步。是否有任何 - 是否有任何類型的主題可以特別針對看到這種增長的任何地區進行磨練？當你退後一步時，你認為從 2Q 開始讓 3 月份受益更多嗎？

Yes Gansham. Let me talk about that a little bit. So as we saw in March, what we saw in March is we saw our books starting to really -- at the time of the call, we were really seeing good volume showing up on our books for in our base businesses, and that gave us some confidence about second quarter. I think the unanticipated commercial opportunities that we saw, though, at the end of March, which really got us above our guidance was a number of things. One, there were some unusually high spot demand at the end of the quarter. So things like Palm and nylon, also (inaudible) an RDP, so it was across both of our businesses. And I think because of our flexibility we have in our supply chain and our operations, we were able to capture a significant share of that unexpected volume that arose at the end of the quarter. I would say that was the majority of that. I think though we also did see accelerated by in a few products in auto and in medical implants, which is a little unusual because we had expected quite a big headwind from medical implants and in fact, had some orders come in. In the case of medical, I think that probably pulled forward from Q2. In auto, we think it's also some pull forward from Q2 in anticipation of better demand in Q2. So I think on that one, is it pull forward? Or is it just quicker demand recovery? Not sure yet. That's not clear. But we're kind of characterizing it as pull forward until we see if that's a sustainable trend.

是的甘山姆。讓我談談這一點。因此，正如我們在 3 月份所看到的那樣，我們在 3 月份看到的是我們看到我們的書籍開始真正 - 在打電話時，我們真的看到我們的基礎業務中的書籍出現了很好的數量，這給了我們對第二季度有一些信心。不過，我認為我們在 3 月底看到的意外商業機會確實讓我們超出了我們的指導範圍，這有很多原因。第一，本季度末的現貨需求異常高。所以像 Palm 和尼龍這樣的東西，還有（聽不清）RDP，所以它跨越了我們的兩個業務。而且我認為，由於我們在供應鍊和運營方面的靈活性，我們能夠在本季度末出現的意外數量中佔據很大份額。我會說那是其中的大部分。我認為儘管我們確實也看到了一些汽車和醫療植入物產品的加速增長，但這有點不尋常，因為我們預計醫療植入物會帶來相當大的阻力，事實上，有一些訂單進來了。在這種情況下醫療方面，我認為這可能會從第二季度提前。在汽車方面，我們認為它也比第二季度有所拉動，因為預計第二季度需求會更好。所以我認為在那個問題上，它是向前推進的嗎？或者只是更快的需求恢復？尚未確定。這還不清楚。但我們有點將其描述為向前推進，直到我們看到這是否是一個可持續的趨勢。

Got it. And then as it relates to the U.S. and your comments on destocking, just a bit more color there in terms of which particular end markets I assume construction is part of that. But just to hear your thoughts. And then just judging by destocking that's occurred in other geographies, including in Europe, what do you think is a reasonable timeline in terms of the destocking event? Is it 2 quarters, 3 quarters? How are you thinking about it now?

知道了。然後，當它與美國和你對去庫存的評論有關時，就我認為建築是其中一部分的特定終端市場而言，只是多了一點色彩。但只是想听聽你的想法。然後僅通過其他地區（包括歐洲）發生的去庫存來判斷，您認為就去庫存事件而言，合理的時間表是什麼？是2個季度還是3個季度？你現在怎麼想的？

Yes. What I would say, is we really saw the end of destocking in Europe and Asia for the most part as we moved into the second quarter. What we've really seen destocking continue is in the U.S. And there, auto is pretty robust, I would say, across all of the areas. But I think there, we see destocking continuing in consumer goods and industrial for the most part. And right now, our projection is we think that's going to continue through second quarter, but be pretty much over as we move into the third quarter, and that's some of the uplift we expect to see in the second half.

是的。我要說的是，隨著我們進入第二季度，我們真的看到了歐洲和亞洲大部分去庫存的結束。我們真正看到的去庫存化在美國繼續進行。我想說，在所有領域，汽車業都非常強勁。但我認為，我們看到消費品和工業品的去庫存化在很大程度上仍在繼續。現在，我們的預測是，我們認為這種情況將持續到第二季度，但隨著我們進入第三季度，這種情況幾乎已經結束，這是我們預計在下半年看到的一些提升。

Our next question has come from the line of Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Michael Sison。

Lori or maybe Scott, you started the first quarter with negative free cash flow. Can you help us walk into the 1.4? You maintain free cash of 1.4. How does that sort of unfold, do we turn positive in 2Q? Or is it more second half loaded?

Lori 或者 Scott，你們在第一季度以負自由現金流開始。你能幫我們走進1.4嗎？您維持 1.4 的自由現金。這種情況如何展開，我們會在第二季度轉為樂觀嗎？還是下半年加載更多？

Yes. I mean we expect it to be negative just kind of coming off of where Q4 was from a sales perspective and then kind of when we had the interest payment. So as we walk into the second quarter, you've got higher levels of earnings coming through. We also had really abnormally high CapEx from a cash perspective in the quarter as well as cash taxes being higher. That goes away at a higher level. We're at more normalized levels in the balance of the year. With the higher earnings levels coming through now in the balance part of the year, we would expect to be able to kind of get up and average much higher levels as we go forward. That sequential walk from Q1 into Q2 is about a $700 million lift from where we were in the first quarter when you kind of put all those things together.

是的。我的意思是，我們預計它會是負面的，只是從銷售的角度來看第四季度，然後是我們支付利息的時候。因此，當我們進入第二季度時，您將獲得更高水平的收益。從本季度的現金角度來看，我們的資本支出也非常高，現金稅也更高。這在更高層次上消失了。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們處於更加正常化的水平。隨著今年餘下時間收入水平的提高，我們預計在前進的過程中能夠達到更高的平均水平。當你把所有這些東西放在一起時，從第一季度到第二季度的連續步行比我們在第一季度的水平增加了大約 7 億美元。

Got it. Okay. And then I think in your prepared remarks, you said that 50% of the first quarter EPS came in March. So April is at a buck -I'm sorry, March is at a buck then if you think about April, May, June, it typically is better than March, I think. So what happened, do you think in terms of decelerate -- the deceleration into April, May and June, and I thought maybe that dollar could have sustained throughout the quarter.

知道了。好的。然後我想在你準備好的發言中，你說第一季度每股收益的 50% 是在 3 月份出現的。所以 4 月是一個降壓 - 對不起，3 月是一個降壓，然後如果你考慮 4 月，5 月，6 月，我認為它通常比 3 月好。那麼發生了什麼，你認為在減速方面 - 減速到 4 月，5 月和 6 月，我認為美元可能會在整個季度持續。

Yes. Again, Mike, I would say a significant portion -- or a portion, I should say, of that dollar in March really was related to the unanticipated and spot like opportunities we were able to capture in March. And so we've not seen those repeat in April, and we haven't baked them in as repeating later in the quarter. Whereas, the base level of earnings has continued to grow -- will continue to grow moderately across the months. So I think we're just trying to be realistic in terms of what we think is repeatable and what was fortunate. Again, we're positioned to take advantage of those spot opportunities if they were to arise again, but we don't want to bake that into our forecast.

是的。再次，邁克，我要說的是，3 月份美元的很大一部分——或者我應該說的一部分，確實與我們在 3 月份能夠抓住的意外和現場機會有關。因此，我們沒有看到這些在 4 月份重複出現，我們也沒有在本季度晚些時候將它們重複出現。然而，基本收入水平繼續增長——未來幾個月將繼續溫和增長。所以我認為我們只是試圖在我們認為可重複的和幸運的方面變得現實。同樣，如果這些機會再次出現，我們可以利用這些機會，但我們不想將其納入我們的預測中。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew DeYeo with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYeo。

So it looks like you beat your 1Q M&M EBITDA guidance and 2Q is expected to accelerate. But the prepared comments no longer mentioned that lift to like $700 million to $750 million in EBITDA. Are you walking away from that level? What do you kind of expect M&M can deliver this year for EBITDA?

所以看起來你超過了第一季度的 M&M EBITDA 指導，第二季度預計會加速。但準備好的評論不再提到 EBITDA 增加到 7 億至 7.5 億美元。你正在遠離那個水平嗎？您對 M&M 今年的 EBITDA 有何期待？

Thanks, Matt. We're really happy with how the integration is going and the value uplift we're starting to see in the M&M assets. Our concern at this point is the fact that second quarter is not accelerating at the pace that we thought across all of our businesses. And so we're going into the second half. At a little lower demand rate than we had originally called out last quarter. So that applies to M&M as well. And so what we're really focused on now, so what I would say is, if that plays out the way we see now, I would say we're kind of at the lower end of that $700 million to $750 million that we called out. And so what we're really trying to get our teams to focus on is making sure we're delivering growth. So that as we get towards the end of the year, we are basically on track for EPS neutral quarter going into 2023, either sometime in the second half or going into 2023, which would be at that kind of $200 million EBITDA range, including synergy.

謝謝，馬特。我們對整合的進展以及我們開始在 M&M 資產中看到的價值提升感到非常滿意。在這一點上，我們擔心的是，第二季度並未按照我們所有業務的預期速度加速。所以我們要進入下半場。需求率比我們上個季度最初要求的要低一些。所以這也適用於 M&M。所以我們現在真正關注的是，所以我想說的是，如果這按照我們現在看到的方式進行，我想說我們有點處於我們所謂的 7 億至 7.5 億美元的低端出去。因此，我們真正想讓我們的團隊專注於確保我們實現增長。因此，當我們接近年底時，我們基本上有望在下半年或進入 2023 年的某個時候實現 EPS 中性季度進入 2023 年，這將在 2 億美元的 EBITDA 範圍內，包括協同效應.

And can you talk a little bit more about the product flow out of China and PLM into Europe? PLM is not really a product, I have a ton of line of sight into. So maybe kind of give me an idea of where margins are in Europe now versus China or what the theoretical kind of compression risk looks like to the European business, how far along we are and maybe some of that are closing from European product or a Chinese product?

您能否多談談產品流出中國和 PLM 進入歐洲的情況？ PLM 並不是真正的產品，我有大量的視線進入。因此，也許可以讓我了解歐洲現在的利潤率與中國相比，或者歐洲企業理論上的壓縮風險是什麼樣的，我們走了多遠，也許其中一些正在接近歐洲產品或中國產品產品？

Sure. It really started back in the fourth quarter and when we really started seeing -- or really even through the third quarter last year when we really started seeing the very high energy prices in Europe. That raise the price of palm in Europe and provided an arbitrage opportunity for Palm coming out of Asia, both China and Korea out of Asia into Europe because demand was very low in Europe. And so that -- those molecules found a home in Europe, where it could be highly competitive even with the shipping cost to do the -- to be there.

當然。它真正開始於第四季度，當我們真正開始看到 - 或者甚至在去年第三季度我們真正開始看到歐洲非常高的能源價格時。這提高了歐洲棕櫚的價格，並為從亞洲、中國和韓國走出亞洲進入歐洲的棕櫚提供了套利機會，因為歐洲的需求非常低。因此——這些分子在歐洲找到了一個家，在那裡，即使有運輸成本，它也可能具有很強的競爭力——在那裡。

Now obviously, with the COVID resurgence in December, and going into the first quarter, we saw those volumes still flowing in the first quarter, even as we started to see energy prices coming down, in Europe, but because of the lack of demand in Asia, there was still an opportunity to move projects into Europe. And while we still see volumes moving in the second quarter, we really expect that now demand is coming back up in Asia that those molecules will find a home again in Asia, prices are down and competitive in Europe. With that on a landed basis. And so we should see those prices stabilizing again in Europe, I think as we move through this quarter and into the third quarter.

現在很明顯，隨著 12 月 COVID 的複蘇，進入第一季度，我們看到這些交易量在第一季度仍在流動，即使我們開始看到歐洲的能源價格下降，但由於需求不足亞洲，仍有機會將項目轉移到歐洲。雖然我們仍然看到第二季度的銷量有所變化，但我們確實預計現在亞洲的需求正在回升，這些分子將再次在亞洲找到家，歐洲的價格下降且具有競爭力。以落地為基礎。因此，我認為隨著我們進入本季度和第三季度，我們應該會看到歐洲的這些價格再次穩定下來。

Our next questions come from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

Two questions, maybe I'll roll into. One here is you seem to pull a lot of levers to basically keep free cash flow in the range that you provided, despite the cut to earnings. Just curious, one, what levers are left if things will play out as you see it and two, as you look at your guidance, I mean, you're talking about demand improving. I guess does the lower end of your range reflect the scenario where demand doesn't really improve from 2Q levels? Or would that be another cut that we need to consider?

兩個問題，也許我會進入。這裡的一個是，儘管收益減少，但你似乎動用了很多槓桿來基本上將自由現金流保持在你提供的範圍內。只是好奇，第一，如果事情像你看到的那樣發展，還有什麼槓桿，第二，當你看你的指導時，我的意思是，你在談論需求改善。我想你範圍的下限是否反映了需求沒有真正從第二季度水平改善的情況？或者這是我們需要考慮的另一個削減？

Yes. Let me start with your kind of last question first. I think the lower end is a range that we feel is achievable even with only really moderate growth. And there are some areas we know like auto, we feel quite comfortable we'll continue to grow this year at a very moderate pace because of the pent-up demand for auto. So I would say the -- we feel very confident in the $11, short of a global recession, on the $11 end of our outlook and our cash flow reflects that. But I mean, if we were to say, go into a global recession, we have a really unexpected downturn here well beyond anything that any of us are imagining right now. There are still levers within cash flow, and we saw that in 2020 with COVID. So if we really see that kind of scenario develop our demand goes down. One, we'll have more working capital release because the value of inventory goes down, we'll be able to go down to even more minimum inventories. But we would also have cost savings as we would take steps similar to what we did during COVID to slow production rates, possibly even shut down plants for a period of time, and you have cost saving benefits that come from that. So I mean, I think we feel very comfortable in our ability to deliver the level of cash flow that we've indicated given the steps that we've already called out.

是的。讓我先從你的最後一個問題開始。我認為低端是一個我們認為即使只有非常適度的增長也可以實現的範圍。還有一些我們知道的領域，比如汽車，我們感到很舒服，因為對汽車的需求被壓抑，我們今年將繼續以非常溫和的速度增長。所以我想說——我們對 11 美元非常有信心，在全球經濟衰退之前，我們的前景是 11 美元，我們的現金流反映了這一點。但我的意思是，如果我們要說，進入全球衰退，我們這裡會出現真正出乎意料的衰退，遠遠超出我們任何人現在的想像。現金流中仍然存在槓桿，我們在 2020 年通過 COVID 看到了這一點。因此，如果我們真的看到這種情況發展，我們的需求就會下降。第一，我們將有更多的營運資金釋放，因為庫存價值下降，我們將能夠降低到更多的最低庫存。但是我們也會節省成本，因為我們會採取類似於我們在 COVID 期間所做的措施來降低生產率，甚至可能關閉工廠一段時間，並且您可以從中節省成本。所以我的意思是，我認為我們對提供我們已經提出的步驟所表明的現金流量水平的能力感到非常滿意。

Okay. And just a quick follow-up just on the inventory adjustment in 2Q, kind of thinking along against similar scenarios here, is that something contained within 2Q? Or is that something that drags into the second half is what's baked into the outlook there?

好的。只是快速跟進第二季度的庫存調整，考慮一下這裡的類似情況，這是否包含在第二季度內？還是拖入下半年的東西是那裡的前景？

Yes. So we're assuming any working capital release from inventory of $300 million or more. So if you think about 2Q, that's a $100 million reduction in working capital and that comes with 30 to 35 impact on EBITDA -- EBIT. So as we go forward, you would expect to see that same impact continue through the second half as we take other inventory adjustments. Obviously, different inventory adjustments come at a different EBIT and depending on what pricing is doing, but I would expect to see some impact from inventory as we move through the year.

是的。因此，我們假設從 3 億美元或更多的庫存中釋放任何營運資金。因此，如果您考慮第二季度，那就是營運資金減少了 1 億美元，這對 EBITDA - EBIT 產生了 30 到 35 的影響。因此，在我們前進的過程中，隨著我們進行其他庫存調整，您會希望在下半年看到同樣的影響。顯然，不同的庫存調整會帶來不同的息稅前利潤，並且取決於定價的變化，但我預計隨著我們今年的發展，庫存會產生一些影響。

Yes. And Josh and that's all baked into the guide that we gave.

是的。還有 Josh，這一切都包含在我們提供的指南中。

Our next questions come from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Lori, would you elaborate on your acetyl outlook in China? If we look at some of the consultant assessments of acetic acid prices they really haven't done a whole lot over the last 2 months or so. But in listening to your commentary, it sounds like maybe there's some upward tension building there. If that's correct, would you attribute that to some of your competitors' outages over the next month or 2? Or do you foresee a more sustained cyclical uplift as the year plays out.

Lori，您能詳細說明一下您在中國的乙酰基前景嗎？如果我們看一些顧問對醋酸價格的評估，他們在過去 2 個月左右的時間裡確實沒有做太多事情。但是在聽你的評論時，聽起來好像那裡正在形成一些向上的壓力。如果那是正確的，您是否會將其歸因於您的一些競爭對手在接下來的一兩個月內發生的故障？或者您是否預見到隨著這一年的結束，會出現更持續的周期性增長。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Kevin. So acetyl in fourth quarter was definitely sub-foundational, and I think we talked about that. I mean we're really essentially at the cost curve and in some periods of time during the quarter and fourth quarter and even into first quarter, even below the cost curve from time to time. So what's happened is if you look at coal pricing in China, coal pricing, why asset pricing has remained at about the same level for the last several months. We've actually seen coal pricing come down from Q4 to Q1, coal pricing came down about 20%. And so you see some uplift in the actual margin. So now we're still very close to the cost curve in terms of margins, but it stabilized a little bit through first quarter. And then some of the turnarounds, which we expected to happen in the first quarter got pushed to second quarter. We're starting to see those turnarounds start. And as that takes capacity out of the system, that further tightens the [indiscernible] demand situation, we see margins slowly creeping up. And just really in the last 5 days, we've started to see a slow increase in acetic acid pricing which we baked that into our guidance, that small increase that we've seen.

是的。謝謝你的問題，凱文。因此，第四季度的乙酰基絕對是次基礎的，我想我們已經討論過了。我的意思是，我們實際上基本上處於成本曲線，在第四季度和第四季度甚至第一季度的某些時間段內，甚至不時低於成本曲線。所以，如果你看看中國的煤炭定價，就會發現為什麼資產定價在過去幾個月裡一直保持在大致相同的水平。我們實際上已經看到煤炭價格從第四季度下降到第一季度，煤炭價格下降了約 20%。所以你會看到實際利潤率有所上升。所以現在我們在利潤率方面仍然非常接近成本曲線，但它在第一季度穩定了一點。然後我們預計在第一季度發生的一些轉變被推遲到第二季度。我們開始看到這些轉變開始了。隨著這從系統中奪走產能，進一步收緊 [音頻不清晰] 需求形勢，我們看到利潤率緩慢攀升。就在過去 5 天裡，我們開始看到醋酸價格緩慢上漲，我們將其納入了我們的指導方針，這是我們所看到的小幅上漲。

But I'd say it's still early. We need to see if that's sustained. But we think there is a chance that is sustained with now the more normal level of outages we expect going forward. I mean the last 6 months have been remarkably stable in the acetic acid world. I mean not a lot of unplanned downtime, not a lot of increases in demand, not a lot of planned downtime. And I think we're going into a more typical period now where we will have occasional outages, both planned and unplanned, which will give us periods of market tightness that we'll be able to take advantage of.

但我想說現在還早。我們需要看看這是否持續。但我們認為，隨著我們預期未來更正常的停電水平，這種情況有可能持續下去。我的意思是過去 6 個月在醋酸領域非常穩定。我的意思是沒有太多計劃外停機，沒有太多需求增加，也沒有太多計劃內停機。而且我認為我們現在正進入一個更典型的時期，我們偶爾會出現計劃內和計劃外的停電，這將給我們帶來我們能夠利用的市場緊張時期。

And then secondly, for Scott, can you speak to your debt reduction target for this year? You affirmed your free cash flow or at least endorsed free cash flow $1.4 billion. I think that number excludes the proceeds that you expect from your Mitsui deal which I understand to be $400 million or more. And so can you put that into context in terms of how you can attack the balance sheet over the next 8 or 9 months here?

其次，斯科特，你能談談你今年的債務削減目標嗎？您確認了您的自由現金流或至少認可了 14 億美元的自由現金流。我認為這個數字不包括你期望從三井交易中獲得的收益，據我所知，該收益為 4 億美元或更多。那麼，您能否將其置於未來 8 或 9 個月如何攻擊資產負債表的背景下？

Yes. Thanks. Kevin. If you go back, we had stated a goal of reducing net debt by $1 billion in 2023. With the cash flow that we expect, we'll certainly do that. And when you layer in the Mitsui proceeds on top of that, certainly, will well exceed that net debt reduction target that we had when we first announced the deal a year ago, of $1 billion. So we feel good about where we finished the year from a net debt perspective.

是的。謝謝。凱文。如果你回過頭來看，我們已經宣布了到 2023 年將淨債務減少 10 億美元的目標。有了我們預期的現金流，我們一定會做到這一點。當你將三井的收益疊加在這之上時，當然，這將遠遠超過我們一年前首次宣布該交易時設定的淨債務削減目標 10 億美元。因此，從淨債務的角度來看，我們對今年結束的情況感到滿意。

And then given what Lori talked about earlier on where we would expect from an earnings trajectory to exit the year as we drive cleanup of the inventory on the balance sheet and we start expensing much lower cost inventory as we go into the second half and then exit the year, we feel good about the earnings trajectory to get to that 3x target that we had initially stated by the end of 2020.

然後考慮到 Lori 早些時候談到的，隨著我們推動清理資產負債表上的庫存，我們預計今年的盈利軌跡將在何處退出，並且隨著我們進入下半年然後退出，我們開始花費成本低得多的庫存今年，我們對實現我們最初設定的到 2020 年底的 3 倍目標的盈利軌跡感到滿意。

Our next questions come from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John McNulty。

This is [Babesh] for John. I would like to hear your thoughts on the competitive landscape in Europe between your businesses. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned some price concessions you offer there in Yen. Any changes to your competitors or perhaps a change in the product mix that is happening there? And then on asset deals, all your competitors have the level of flexibility you mentioned of moving products from Asia. So assuming things are not as easy as you for your competitors, any changes in market share or capacity there.

這是 John 的 [Babesh]。我想听聽您對貴公司在歐洲的競爭格局的看法。在你準備好的發言中，你提到了你在那裡提供的一些日元價格優惠。你的競爭對手有什麼變化，或者那裡的產品組合有什麼變化嗎？然後在資產交易方面，您所有的競爭對手都具有您提到的從亞洲轉移產品的靈活性。因此，假設對於競爭對手而言，事情並不像您那麼容易，那裡的市場份額或產能有任何變化。

Yes. In terms of the competitive landscape in Europe, I think the real challenge there has been imports from Asia, again, reflecting the low demand in Asia and the improved cost position Asia had compared to Europe when they had much higher energy prices. And I should say Europe energy prices have come down significantly, but they are still high relative to the rest of the world. And so again, we see that situation improving, especially now with increased demand developing in Europe. We really see that having improved now at the end of the first quarter going into the second quarter and then further improving in the second half of the year. On acetyl's competitiveness, it has been a very stable market. So it's been very competitive as there's -- and it's also been a period of seasonably low demand for acetyls as well as some of the impacts of China holidays and just lower China demand and the slowdown in the construction industry globally and the impact that has on acetyls. Again, as we start to see recovery, even slight recovery in Europe and Asia in construction, as we start the normal levels of shutdown, we do see an opportunity there to capture additional margin in the acetyl space. the ability to capture additional market share is really based upon our commercial model and the optionality and flexibility we have to take advantage of when there are spot opportunities by moving molecules around the globe by flexing up and down our product chain. In first quarter, we took advantage of the stronger markets for emulsions and RDP further down the chain, which helped boost our profitability in the first quarter. As we start to see some movement in the asset price in China, there will be an opportunity to take advantage of it there. So it really is all around more so than market share, it's more around the flexibility and optionality and the ability to capture in any given market at any given time, any upside potential that exists.

是的。就歐洲的競爭格局而言，我認為真正的挑戰來自亞洲的進口，這再次反映出亞洲的低需求以及與能源價格高得多的歐洲相比亞洲的成本地位有所改善。我應該說歐洲的能源價格已經大幅下降，但相對於世界其他地區來說仍然偏高。因此，我們再次看到這種情況正在改善，尤其是現在隨著歐洲需求的增長。我們確實看到，在第一季度末進入第二季度時，情況有所改善，然後在下半年進一步改善。就乙酰的競爭力而言，它一直是一個非常穩定的市場。所以它一直非常有競爭力 - 而且它也是一個季節性低需求的時期以及中國假期的一些影響和中國需求的下降以及全球建築業的放緩以及對它的影響乙酰基。同樣，隨著我們開始看到復蘇，甚至是歐洲和亞洲建築業的小幅復甦，隨著我們開始正常水平的停工，我們確實看到了在乙酰空間獲得額外利潤的機會。獲得更多市場份額的能力實際上是基於我們的商業模式以及我們必須利用的選擇性和靈活性，當有機會通過在全球範圍內移動分子來通過上下彎曲我們的產品鏈來利用。在第一季度，我們利用了更強勁的乳液市場和更下游的 RDP，這有助於提高我們在第一季度的盈利能力。當我們開始看到中國資產價格出現一些變動時，將有機會在那裡利用它。所以它真的比市場份額更重要，它更多的是靈活性和可選性以及在任何特定時間捕獲任何特定市場的能力，任何存在的上行潛力。

Got it. And secondly, on (inaudible), congrats on the commissioning there. You mentioned $100 million worth earnings contribution next year. Is this all incremental to your overall global earnings level -- or will some of it be offset by, say, reduced operating rates somewhere products in China where you're running close to your cost curve?

知道了。其次，關於（聽不清），祝賀那裡的調試。你提到明年價值 1 億美元的收益貢獻。這對您的整體全球收入水平是否都是增量的——或者其中的一些會被例如您接近成本曲線的中國某些產品的開工率降低所抵消？

Yes. So the $100 million is on top of our already kind of $1.3 billion level of foundational earnings for Acetyl so that's raising the total global acetyl Foundational earnings from 1.3 to 1.4. And think about it, it's really about 50% based on what I call ratable productivity, so things like reduce catalyst costs, reduce energy costs, reduce maintenance costs, et cetera. And then about 50% of it is based on having kind of built-in turnaround and outage coverage in the network by having 2 units at Clear Lake. And then obviously, there's additional upside to that if we were to get in a period of higher demand and higher pricing to basically raise our output from -- in totality of our acetyl chain.

是的。因此，這 1 億美元超出了我們已經達到的 13 億美元的乙酰基礎收益水平，因此將全球乙酰基基礎收益總額從 1.3 提高到 1.4。想一想，根據我所說的額定生產率，它實際上大約是 50%，所以諸如降低催化劑成本、降低能源成本、降低維護成本等。然後大約 50% 是基於在 Clear Lake 有 2 個單元在網絡中具有某種內置的周轉和中斷覆蓋。然後很明顯，如果我們要進入一個需求更高、價格更高的時期，從根本上提高我們的產量——整個乙酰鏈，那還有額外的好處。

Our next questions come from the line of Frank Mitsch with Birmingham Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯明翰研究中心的 Frank Mitsch。

Yes. Congratulations on the mechanical completion for the Clear Lake acetic acid facility. I know you gave some earnings projections for the balance of the year and for next year. I was just curious as to how this is going to impact your operating rates at some of your other facilities. How should we think about the industry overall and the impact that this may have.

是的。祝賀 Clear Lake 醋酸工廠的機械竣工。我知道您對今年餘下時間和明年的收入做出了一些預測。我只是好奇這將如何影響您在其他一些設施的開工率。我們應該如何看待整個行業以及這可能產生的影響。

Yes. So thanks, Frank. We are happy to have the mechanical completion behind us, and we're moving now into the commissioning phase and anticipate production in Q3. Look, at the lower natural gas prices we're seeing, which greatly advantages our location there in Clear Lake. I would anticipate you would see that facility running at higher rates, which could reduce rates because of global demand. Reduce our operating rates in China and Singapore as we continue to supply Europe from the U.S., and we'll be able to supply Europe even at higher volumes entirely now coming out of the U.S., and it's cost effective to do so. I don't know that you really see opportunistic shipments to Asia. Although that's possible in the second half, the volume of that, though, is limited. I mean, there are other supply constraints around availability of vessels and availability of receiving tankage, et cetera. But that arbitrage could open up as well. I think what we need to realize is Clear Lake is not only the lowest cost producer of acetic acid now in the world. And we'll be able to produce a significant volume of it, but it is also the lowest carbon footprint producer of acetic acid in the world. And so we think that is going to bring -- open up a lot of opportunities for Clear Lake and from the impact on the industry, clearly, I think it will make some impact in terms of volumes you see moving from Asia to Europe as we'll be able to service volumes in Europe much more cheaply from the U.S.

是的。所以謝謝，弗蘭克。我們很高興機械完工，我們現在正進入調試階段並預計在第三季度投產。看看我們看到的較低的天然氣價格，這極大地促進了我們在 Clear Lake 的位置。我預計您會看到該設施以更高的速度運行，這可能會因全球需求而降低速度。隨著我們繼續從美國向歐洲供應產品，降低我們在中國和新加坡的開工率，我們將能夠完全從美國向歐洲供應更高數量的產品，這樣做具有成本效益。我不知道你真的看到機會主義的出貨到亞洲。儘管下半場有可能，但數量有限。我的意思是，圍繞船隻的可用性和接收儲罐的可用性等還有其他供應限制。但這種套利也可能開放。我認為我們需要認識到的是，Clear Lake 不僅是目前世界上成本最低的醋酸生產商。我們將能夠生產大量的醋酸，但它也是世界上碳足跡最低的醋酸生產商。因此，我們認為這將為 Clear Lake 帶來很多機會，從對行業的影響來看，很明顯，我認為這將對你看到的從亞洲轉移到歐洲的數量產生一些影響，因為我們將能夠從美國以更便宜的價格在歐洲提供服務

So the intent would be to run that flat out and ramp back some of the operating -- ramp up some of your other facilities. Where do you think operating rates are in acetic acid as we look at the second quarter. And then, of course, you guys recently restarted your non-Zing VAM facility. If you could talk about operating rates in the VAM area as well, that would be helpful.

因此，我們的目的是全力以赴並減少一些運營 - 增加一些其他設施。當我們看第二季度時，您認為醋酸的開工率在哪裡。然後，當然，你們最近重新啟動了非 Zing VAM 設施。如果您也能談談 VAM 領域的開工率，那將很有幫助。

Yes. Look, industry operating rates for both globally for both aceic acid and VAM are still kind of in that 90% range. Maybe from time to time a bit lower, but are still kind of trending towards that 90% range. It just has been so stable, which is a little bit unusual in this business. For the last 6 months that people have gotten comfortable at those operating levels and demand has been down, again, normal seasonality. And so it feels quite comfortable. But at 90%, I mean, we are now positioned to take advantage of really any -- either planned or unplanned downtime that occur globally in either asset or BAM or any of the downstream derivatives. And that's really where we've seen the opportunity in the past is when we start getting some either regional or short-term misallocation between supply and demand.

是的。看，全球醋酸和 VAM 的行業開工率仍處於 90% 的範圍內。也許有時會低一點，但仍趨向於 90% 的範圍。它一直如此穩定，這在這個行業中有點不尋常。在過去的 6 個月裡，人們對這些運營水平感到滿意，需求再次下降，這是正常的季節性。所以感覺很舒服。但在 90%，我的意思是，我們現在可以利用全球資產或 BAM 或任何下游衍生品中發生的任何計劃內或計劃外停機時間。而這正是我們過去看到機會的地方，即當我們開始在供需之間出現一些區域或短期的錯誤分配時。

Our next questions come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vincent Andrews 與 Morgan Stanley 的對話。

I wanted to follow up on that a little bit on the demand side of the equation because one of the issues I've been having in our own S&D models here is trying to sort of reconcile what I think the underlying demand number is versus what shipments have been to try to account for. Obviously, we had a lot of issues with unplanned outages over the last few years, but we also had very strong building and construction demand in the acetyl chain. So how do you reconcile that when you sit here today and think about what the actual underlying instant demand is versus shipments and maybe how much shipments might have overstated demand in the past and maybe understating demand now in terms of thinking through what operating rates can look like over the next couple of years.

我想在等式的需求方面跟進一點，因為我在我們自己的 S&D 模型中遇到的問題之一是試圖協調我認為的潛在需求數字與出貨量一直想佔。顯然，過去幾年我們遇到了很多計劃外停機的問題，但我們在乙酰鏈方面也有非常強勁的建設需求。那麼，當您今天坐在這裡思考實際潛在即時需求與出貨量的關係時，您如何調和這一點，以及從考慮開工率的角度來看，過去有多少出貨量可能誇大了需求，現在可能低估了需求就像在接下來的幾年裡。

Yes. Look, it's been a bit of a confusing time and (inaudible), I would say. If we look at fourth quarter last year, when prices were very low, we started seeing demand really coming off, particularly in Asia, although operations were fairly stable, we certainly still saw some molecules moving as people anticipated different things. And as we go forward, we also saw a lot of shipment and people carrying higher inventories before that because of all of the supply chain issues that existed around the world, and you call like in the first half of 2022. VAM and emulsions, I mean, there just wasn't even enough molecules out there to meet the customer demand. And so people were carrying a lot higher inventories when we saw the reduction in demand through the fourth quarter, we saw people really destocking in the fourth quarter. We called that out at the last earnings call. I would say now as we've moved through the first quarter and especially March and beyond, we do see demand recovery coming back for fibers for other end users. Construction is still, I'd say, the weak spot, although even in -- like in Asia, we're seeing a little bit of recovery in construction. And in Europe, we're seeing recovery in construction, not so much in new builds, but in renovation for energy efficiency, where a lot of our downstream derivatives products go. So we are seeing the demand coming back again with a few exceptions. And so that is starting to bring the volumes up. But we're not really seeing restocking occurring yet as people feel fairly comfortable because we've been in such a stable period and haven't had the supply chain issues. I think customers feel fairly confident they can get the materials they want. As we see demand continue to increase, I expect we'll see some level of restocking. And with that higher demand, we should see some tightening of pricing and seeing some pricing uplift across all the regions.

是的。看，這是一個有點混亂的時間和（聽不清），我會說。如果我們回顧去年第四季度，當價格非常低時，我們開始看到需求真正下降，尤其是在亞洲，儘管運營相當穩定，但我們當然仍然看到一些分子隨著人們對不同事物的預期而移動。在我們前進的過程中，由於世界各地存在的所有供應鏈問題，我們還看到大量出貨量和人們在此之前攜帶更高的庫存，就像你在 2022 年上半年打電話一樣。VAM 和乳液，我也就是說，根本就沒有足夠的分子來滿足客戶的需求。因此，當我們看到整個第四季度的需求減少時，人們持有大量庫存，我們看到人們在第四季度真正去庫存。我們在上次財報電話會議上提出了這一點。我現在要說的是，隨著我們已經度過第一季度，尤其是 3 月及以後，我們確實看到其他最終用戶對光纖的需求恢復。我要說的是，建築業仍然是薄弱環節，儘管即使在——就像在亞洲一樣，我們也看到了建築業的一點點復甦。在歐洲，我們看到了建築業的複蘇，而不是新建築，而是能源效率改造，我們的許多下游衍生產品都用於此。因此，除了少數例外，我們看到需求再次回升。因此，這開始增加交易量。但是我們還沒有真正看到補貨發生，因為人們感到相當舒服，因為我們一直處於如此穩定的時期並且沒有出現供應鏈問題。我認為客戶相當有信心他們可以獲得他們想要的材料。當我們看到需求繼續增加時，我預計我們會看到一定程度的補貨。隨著需求的增加，我們應該會看到價格有所收緊，所有地區的價格都會有所上漲。

Our next questions come from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess the first thing was you noted about $1 of uplift from 2Q into 3Q and 4Q. Would that be split kind of evenly between the 2 -- I mean, the $2 be split evenly, so you're looking at 3Q, 4Q about equivalently? Or is 3Q typically seasonally higher and then relatedly, how much of that dollar uplift, I guess, is under your control? I know you feel very comfortable with the $11 level for the full year. But maybe if you could just walk through maybe the walk from 250 to 350, say how much would be coming from M&M synergies and how much will be coming from volume and how much would be coming from internal cost reductions or something like that, that would be helpful.

我想第一件事是你注意到從第二季度到第三季度和第四季度大約有 1 美元的提升。這會在 2 之間平均分配嗎——我的意思是，2 美元會平均分配，所以你在看 3Q 和 4Q？或者 3Q 通常是季節性上漲，然後相關地，我猜，美元上漲的多少在你的控制之下？我知道您對全年 11 美元的水平感到非常滿意。但是也許如果你可以從 250 走到 350，說有多少來自 M&M 協同效應，有多少來自銷量，有多少來自內部成本削減或類似的東西，那會有幫助。

Sure. So I would say -- let me again start with the end probably of that dollar uplift, the $0.75 is the bottom end of the range, which would get us kind of to the $11. We feel very much that's in our control. That's within our ability to see. I mean, again, assuming markets develop moderately in the way that we're calling out now. Combined with the controllable actions, combined with what we've seen with raw materials and energy, those things all continue as we've called out, then we clearly have a line of sight to that $11. To get to the upper end of the range, which would be more like 375 a quarter would require some further demand improvement across the end markets.

當然。所以我想說——讓我再次從美元上漲的終點開始，0.75 美元是該範圍的底端，這將使我們達到 11 美元。我們覺得一切都在我們的控制之中。這在我們的能力範圍內。我的意思是，再次假設市場以我們現在呼籲的方式適度發展。結合可控的行動，結合我們在原材料和能源方面所看到的情況，這些事情都會按照我們的要求繼續進行，那麼我們顯然可以看到 11 美元。要達到該範圍的上限，即每季度 375 個，則需要進一步改善終端市場的需求。

And so you're right. Usually, in terms of timing, usually Q3 is a bit higher than Q4. I think we don't really have a lot of visibility on that yet. But I would say, I actually wouldn't expect them to be that much different this year. Although we typically get seasonality in Q4. That seasonality is in the Western Hemisphere. Now with the acquisition, we have much more exposure in Asia, which tends to be very strong in Q4. So I would expect for Engineered Materials, for example, that those would be similar levels in Q3 and Q4. And in fact, if we're in recovery, we've had some very healthy Q4 before when we've been in recovery as well as we have synergies building throughout the years so that our highest number for synergy will be in Q4. So I -- right now, I would say I would expect Q3 and Q4 to be similar, although typically, Q3 has been a higher quarter than Q4.

所以你是對的。通常，在時序方面，通常Q3會比Q4高一點。我認為我們還沒有真正了解這一點。但我會說，我實際上不希望他們今年有那麼大的不同。儘管我們通常會在第四季度獲得季節性。這種季節性在西半球。現在通過收購，我們在亞洲有更多的曝光率，這在第四季度往往非常強勁。因此，我希望工程材料在第三季度和第四季度的水平相似。事實上，如果我們處於復蘇階段，那麼在我們處於復蘇階段之前，我們已經擁有了一些非常健康的第四季度，並且我們多年來一直在建立協同效應，因此我們協同效應的最高數字將出現在第四季度。所以我 - 現在，我會說我希望第三季度和第四季度相似，儘管通常情況下，第三季度比第四季度更高。

Great. And then just as a follow-up, you're going to be exiting the year theoretically at around $7 a second half level of earnings. So next year, and still, that would be maybe reflective of just a modest demand environment. So would you expect kind of continued growth as you look into '24 and similar to that second half and growing from there, is that a fair starting point?

偉大的。然後作為後續行動，您將在理論上以下半年 7 美元左右的收益水平退出今年。所以明年，仍然，這可能只是反映了適度的需求環境。那麼，當您展望 24 世紀並且與下半年相似並從那裡開始增長時，您是否期望持續增長，這是一個公平的起點嗎？

Yes. Look, I think that's a fair starting point. I mean, obviously, we'll have some quarter-to-quarter variation because of seasonality and other things. But assuming a steady demand environment, will continue to get additional benefits from M&M. We've historically grown our own Engineered Materials business in kind of a double-digit range year-on-year. And we will get the further benefits from having Clear Lake online as well as some of the other expansions, including the integration of tow into acetyls which will continue to grow on a year-on-year basis as we move forward. So I think that's not an unreasonable place to start when you're thinking about 2024.

是的。看，我認為這是一個公平的起點。我的意思是，很明顯，由於季節性和其他因素，我們會有一些季度到季度的變化。但假設需求環境穩定，將繼續從 M&M 中獲得額外收益。從歷史上看，我們自己的工程材料業務每年都以兩位數的速度增長。我們將從 Clear Lake 在線以及其他一些擴展中獲得更多好處，包括將絲束整合到乙酰基中，隨著我們的前進，這將繼續逐年增長。所以我認為當你考慮 2024 年時，從這裡開始並不是一個不合理的起點。

Come from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Analytics Global.

來自 Analytics Global 的 Hassan Ahmed 家族。

A question around some of the guided to sort of self-help sort of measures to boost EBITDA. I mean earlier, you were talking about being able to attain around $130 million in 2023 worth of M&M synergies as well as slightly north of $140 million from the [tow] business overall. So how is that tracking? Are those numbers still sort of attainable, beatable? Where do we stand with that?

圍繞一些引導式自助式措施來提高 EBITDA 的問題。我的意思是，早些時候，你談到能夠在 2023 年的 M&M 協同效應中獲得約 1.3 億美元的收入，以及從 [tow] 整體業務中獲得略高於 1.4 億美元的收入。那麼跟踪情況如何？這些數字仍然可以達到、可以擊敗嗎？我們對此持何立場？

Yes. So we had called out before 100 to 135 of M&M synergies. We fully expect to be at the top end of that range. So we are on track for that. In the second quarter, we had about $10 million of synergies from M&M. There's another $10 million or $20 million that will be added to that in the second quarter and continue to build through the year. So we feel very comfortable in achieving that $135 million of M&M synergies this year. We feel very comfortable that we have achieved the uplift from [tow]. That was very obvious in the first quarter, and we also got an additional 10 million to 20 million of uplift in the first quarter from (inaudible) spot sales, which was part of our model going forward that we wanted to be able. Those will be there every quarter, but I think it shows the value of having integrated it into acetyls and running it in a different way. It gives us more options to capture upside than we've had in the past. So I feel very comfortable with that number on tow. I think the other thing is productivity. So we've historically achieved $100 million to $150 million a year of gross productivity. Through the first quarter, we are on track to achieve at or above that top end of that range on productivity. And these are business productivity separate from M&M synergies. So I think when we talk about self-help, we feel like we're really delivering on all of these areas as well as delivering on the volume recovery in M&M, the pricing recovery and all those things that we've laid out relative to the deal.

是的。所以我們在 100 到 135 個 M&M 協同作用之前就發出了呼籲。我們完全希望處於該範圍的頂端。所以我們正朝著這個方向前進。第二季度，我們從 M&M 獲得了約 1000 萬美元的協同效應。第二季度還將增加 1000 萬或 2000 萬美元，並在全年繼續增加。因此，我們對今年實現 1.35 億美元的 M&M 協同效應感到非常滿意。我們感到非常欣慰，因為我們已經從 [tow] 中獲得了提升。這在第一季度非常明顯，第一季度我們還從（聽不清）現貨銷售中獲得了額外的 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元的提升，這是我們希望能夠實現的未來模式的一部分。每個季度都會有這些，但我認為它顯示了將它集成到乙酰基並以不同的方式運行它的價值。它為我們提供了比過去更多的選擇來捕捉優勢。所以我對這個數字感到很舒服。我認為另一件事是生產力。因此，從歷史上看，我們每年的總生產率達到了 1 億到 1.5 億美元。整個第一季度，我們有望在生產力方面達到或超過該範圍的上限。這些是與 M&M 協同作用分開的業務生產力。所以我認為，當我們談論自助時，我們覺得我們確實在所有這些領域都取得了成果，並且實現了 M&M 的銷量恢復、定價恢復以及我們已經制定的所有相關內容交易。

Fair enough. Very helpful. And as a follow-up, you had a nice sort of bump up in EM businesses EBITDA margins Q4 to Q1, around 20% EBITDA margins you guys reported for Q1. And obviously, you gave some near-term sort of guidance showing the uplift in EBITDA in that business. But from a margin perspective, longer term, as we look at sort of 2024 and beyond, where do you see EM business sort of EBITDA margins going? Because historically, pre M&M you guys were sort of reporting sort of EBITDA margins well into the sort of low to mid-30% range. I mean, should we eventually expect sort of move towards those sort of levels of margins?

很公平。很有幫助。作為後續行動，你們在第四季度到第一季度的新興市場業務 EBITDA 利潤率有了很好的提升，你們報告的第一季度 EBITDA 利潤率約為 20%。顯然，您提供了一些近期指導，顯示該業務的 EBITDA 有所提高。但從利潤率的角度來看，從長遠來看，當我們展望 2024 年及以後時，您認為新興市場業務的 EBITDA 利潤率將走向何方？因為從歷史上看，在 M&M 之前，你們報告的 EBITDA 利潤率在 30% 的低到中等範圍內。我的意思是，我們最終是否應該期望朝著那種利潤率水平邁進？

Yes. Look, in Q1, the combined Engineered Materials was about 20%. We expect that to move up across the year really as we lift the EBITDA margins on the M&M business. So by the end of the year, I think we should be more around that 23% range for the year. And I fully expect as we continue to grow M&M as we continue to grow our base business as we continue to high grade the portfolio and realize the value of the synergies that we will move into that more historical level of 25% to 30% EBITDA margins, which is actually about where we've been in the last few years.

是的。看，在第一季度，綜合工程材料約為 20%。我們預計隨著我們提高 M&M 業務的 EBITDA 利潤率，這一數字將在今年真正上升。所以到今年年底，我認為我們應該在今年的 23% 左右。我完全預計，隨著我們繼續發展 M&M，隨著我們繼續發展我們的基礎業務，我們將繼續提高投資組合的等級並實現協同效應的價值，我們將進入 25% 至 30% 的 EBITDA 利潤率的更高歷史水平，這實際上是關於我們在過去幾年中所處的位置。

Our next questions come from the line of Jaideep Pandya with On Field Research.

我們的下一個問題來自現場研究的 Jaideep Pandya。

Thanks. Just want to say, it's very commendable that you guys have loaded the balance sheet with debt and not gone for the rights issue. But since the deal, the world has changed quite significantly and you're doing everything you can to sort of rightsize the business. But I just want to understand the legacy EM business, how are you making sure you're not starving this of capital because there's a lot of focus on M&M. That's my first question. The second question is on the competitive landscape in China. As a lot of Nylon 6 and 66 [polymerization] capacity coming in China. So just putting in context of the value chain, do you actually benefit because the chain is going long in polymerization in China? Or is this going to create headaches on the pricing for you?

謝謝。只是想說，非常值得稱讚的是，你們已經負債累累，而不是去配股。但自交易以來，世界發生了巨大變化，您正在盡一切努力調整業務規模。但我只想了解傳統的 EM 業務，你如何確保你不會因為對 M&M 的關注而導致資金匱乏。這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題是關於中國的競爭格局。隨著大量尼龍 6 和 66 [聚合] 產能進入中國。所以僅僅放在價值鏈的背景下，你真的因為價值鏈在中國的聚合中走長而受益嗎？還是這會讓您對定價感到頭疼？

Look, on the question around legacy EM, I think the thing to realize is we've really focused in the last 6 months in forming one Celanese team. So we have put an organization in place that brings all of our businesses, including Santoprene together, under new business line groups under the best set of leaders that we could pick out of the combined organization. And we've really focused on developing a culture of one Celanese. So we're not looking -- although for the benefits of this call, we do talk about how we're doing in each part of the business, we're not running it as two separate businesses. We're running it as one business. We have everybody on the same sales platform. We have everybody in the project model. We look at our capital processes have been combined. So we look at it in the same way. So I don't think we're at any risk of ignoring one part of the business to benefit the other, because we really are running it as one business now, even though -- because we currently still have two financial systems until we can integrate the IT systems, we are able to track it separately. But in terms of how we're running it, their combined sales team, we're approaching customers as one Celanese with a full slate of products. And if you look at -- you may be concerned because of some of the callouts we've done in the reduction of CapEx. But really, if you look at that reduction in CapEx, it's really just about reassessing the timing of our projects to really align with the revised demand outlook we have now and also integrating the M&M capacity we have into the project views to say, we may now have capacity on the ground. We don't use to go build it. So really optimizing the combined capacity we have, which has led us delay or eliminate some of the projects that we had thought we would need to do to gain capacity.

看，關於遺留 EM 的問題，我認為要意識到的是，我們在過去 6 個月中真正專注於組建一支 Celanese 團隊。因此，我們建立了一個組織，將我們所有的業務（包括 Santoprene）整合到新的業務線組中，並由我們可以從合併後的組織中選出的最佳領導者組成。我們真正專注於發展一種塞拉尼斯人的文化。所以我們不看 - 儘管為了這次電話會議的好處，我們確實討論了我們在業務的每個部分的表現，但我們並沒有將其作為兩個獨立的業務來運行。我們把它作為一項業務來經營。我們每個人都在同一個銷售平台上。我們每個人都在項目模型中。我們看看我們的資本流程已經合併了。所以我們以同樣的方式看待它。因此，我認為我們不會因為忽視業務的一部分而讓另一部分受益，因為我們現在確實將其作為一項業務來運營，儘管——因為我們目前仍然有兩個財務系統，直到我們能夠集成 IT 系統，我們能夠單獨跟踪它。但就我們的運營方式而言，他們的聯合銷售團隊，我們正在接近客戶作為一個擁有全套產品的塞拉尼斯人。如果你看——你可能會擔心，因為我們在減少資本支出方面所做的一些標註。但實際上，如果你看一下資本支出的減少，這實際上只是重新評估我們項目的時間安排，以真正符合我們現在修改後的需求前景，並將我們擁有的 M&M 能力整合到項目視圖中說，我們可能現在有實地能力。我們不習慣去建造它。因此，真正優化我們擁有的綜合能力，這導致我們推遲或取消了一些我們認為需要做才能獲得能力的項目。

So we haven't really canceled any material projects. We haven't made any significant cuts to our reliability and maintenance and those things that make us a reliable supplier for our customers. This is really about optimizing the new footprint and adjusting our CapEx to go with the new demand forecast we have going forward. And then on the question on polymerization of PA66, I mean there is a lot of PA66 capacity coming on in Asia. I think one thing to remember is a very small portion of PA66 production actually goes into Engineered Materials, a vast majority of it goes into fibers. And so it doesn't all dumb into engineered materials. I mean that is really a function of compounding and others. It is, though, one of the reasons we have been so focused on building optionality into our supply chain raw material polymer, so that we can have a choice in terms of make versus buy whichever is the most economically attractive. It's why do we have a contract that allows us more flexibility. That's why we're trying to get our inventories back to a level of control and that's why we're really looking at the totality of our footprint to really be able to take advantage of low PA66 raw material prices, if that's available. Or to make it if we see an advantage to continue to produce ourselves.

所以我們並沒有真正取消任何實質性項目。我們沒有顯著降低我們的可靠性和維護以及使我們成為客戶可靠供應商的那些東西。這實際上是關於優化新的足跡並調整我們的資本支出以適應我們未來的新需求預測。然後關於 PA66 聚合的問題，我的意思是亞洲有很多 PA66 產能。我認為需要記住的一件事是，PA66 產品中只有很小一部分實際上用於工程材料，絕大部分用於纖維。所以它並沒有完全變成工程材料。我的意思是這實際上是複合和其他函數的函數。不過，這也是我們如此專注於在我們的供應鏈原材料聚合物中建立可選性的原因之一，這樣我們就可以在製造和購買方面做出選擇，無論哪個在經濟上最具吸引力。這就是為什麼我們有一份允許我們更靈活的合同。這就是為什麼我們試圖讓我們的庫存恢復到可控水平，這就是為什麼我們真正關注我們的足跡總量，以便真正能夠利用低 PA66 原材料價格（如果有的話）。或者，如果我們看到繼續生產自己的優勢，就會成功。

Darryl, we'll take one more question, please.

達里爾，我們再回答一個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰羅伯茨。

You Converted M&M over to the Celanese project pipeline and backlog model. How would you characterize their number of new projects versus the legacy Celanese and backlog?

您將 M&M 轉換為 Celanese 項目管道和積壓模型。您如何描述他們的新項目數量與遺留的塞拉尼斯和積壓項目的數量？

That's a good question. I'm not sure I have a number in front of me. What I'd say is we've been pleased with their willingness to use the model, if you will, and their understanding of how this adds value to the new Celanese. And I'd say the projects that are being tendered are growing as we move through this transition and people really understand what we're looking for. Again, it helps that we have combined everybody into one organization. We have one sales team. And so our growth in the project pipeline is good. We are a little bit separate from that, but we also are finding a lot of interesting things in the M&M T&I portfolio we hope to be able to bring to market. And so I think I would just expect to see it accelerate over time as we get everybody fully on board and adjusted to the Celanese way of working.

這是個好問題。我不確定我面前有一個數字。我要說的是，我們對他們願意使用該模型（如果您願意）以及他們對這如何為新塞拉尼斯增加價值的理解感到高興。我想說的是，隨著我們經歷這一轉變，正在招標的項目正在增加，人們真正理解我們在尋找什麼。同樣，這有助於我們將所有人合併到一個組織中。我們有一個銷售團隊。因此，我們在項目管道中的增長是好的。我們與它有點不同，但我們也在 M&M T&I 產品組合中發現了很多有趣的東西，我們希望能夠將其推向市場。因此，我認為隨著我們讓每個人都充分參與並適應塞拉尼斯的工作方式，我希望看到它隨著時間的推移而加速。

And then you've restarted the VAM unit in Germany. If there's a cold winter or some sort of energy supply disruption. Have you made enough changes to keep that plant up in that scenario? Or will you just shut it down again if we get an end new spike?

然後您在德國重新啟動了 VAM 裝置。如果有寒冷的冬天或某種能源供應中斷。您是否進行了足夠的更改以使該工廠在那種情況下保持運轉？或者如果我們得到一個新的尖峰，你會再次關閉它嗎？

So John, I would say it was still economically attractive to run it last year when we shut it down on its own, it would have been economically attractive, but the situation there was the global demand was so low, it was more economically attractive to shut it down and supply material out of the U.S. So it really is a question of total demand profile across the globe. It is an attractive unit. It is it is cost efficient. It really was related to the high energy prices we saw there. So our intent would be to run it. We hope demand would keep up with that, but we will always look at our entirety of our portfolio and make decisions about what to run and what not to run based on what's most economically attractive.

所以約翰，我想說去年我們自己關閉它時運行它在經濟上仍然具有吸引力，它在經濟上具有吸引力，但全球需求如此之低的情況下，它在經濟上更具吸引力關閉它並從美國供應材料所以這確實是全球總需求狀況的問題。這是一個有吸引力的單位。它具有成本效益。這確實與我們在那裡看到的高能源價格有關。所以我們的目的是運行它。我們希望需求能夠跟上這一趨勢，但我們將始終審視我們的整個投資組合，並根據最具經濟吸引力的內容來決定運行什麼和不運行什麼。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back over to Brandon and I ask for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給 Brandon，並要求任何結束語。

Thank you. We'd like to thank everyone for listening in today. As always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions you may have. Darryl, please go ahead and close up the call.

謝謝。我們要感謝大家今天的收聽。與往常一樣，我們會在電話結束後回答您可能有的任何後續問題。達里爾，請繼續並結束通話。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。享受你剩下的一天。