塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Celanese Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好！歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2023年第二季財報電話會議及網路直播。 （操作員指示）溫馨提示：本次會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to hand the call over to Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在，我想把電話交給投資者關係副總裁布蘭登‧阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache)。謝謝。您可以開始發言了。

Thank you, Darryl. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese distributed its second quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted the prepared comments on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

謝謝，Darryl。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2023年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁Brandon Ayache。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長Lori Ryerkerk和財務長Scott Richardson。塞拉尼斯透過美國商業資訊(Business Wire)發布了其第二季財報，並於昨天下午在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both press release and prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC. As we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll go ahead and go directly to questions.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。今天的演示還將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看關於前瞻性陳述的警示性措辭，該措辭可在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。由於我們昨天發布了準備好的評論，因此我們將直接進入問答環節。

Darryl, please go ahead and open up the line for questions.

達裡爾，請繼續，打開提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess, first off, Lori, in your prepared comments you had some comments about China and some of the trends that you saw in 3Q. I was just hoping you could give us a little bit more color in terms of how things are evolving at that point in context of all the chatter about stimulus, et cetera. Are you starting to see any signs of that permeating through to your business?

首先，Lori，您準備好的評論中提到了一些關於中國以及您在第三季度看到的一些趨勢。我只是希望您能更詳細地介紹一下，在當前關於刺激措施等討論的背景下，目前情況如何發展。您是否開始看到這些因素滲透到您的業務中的跡象？

Thank you, Ghansham. When we look at China, it's been a difficult year in China, clearly, as we've seen depressed demand, consistent with the rest of the world but probably more pronounced in China. I think what we see different now as we start moving through the year, and we saw some signs of it early in 2Q already, is despite lower demand conditions, conditions especially for the Acetyl Chain seem a bit tighter. And the reason I say that is when we saw some unexpected outages in the second quarter and here really in July, we did see pretty rapid price response to those outages, which suggests that there's not a lot of spare inventory or spare capacity in that area.

謝謝，Ghansham。就中國而言，今年顯然是艱難的一年，因為我們看到需求低迷，這與世界其他地區的情況一致，但中國的情況可能更為明顯。我認為，隨著今年的推進，我們現在看到的有所不同，而且我們在第二季度初就已經看到了一些跡象，那就是儘管需求狀況較低，但尤其是乙醯基鏈的狀況似乎更加緊張。我之所以這麼說，是因為當我們在第二季和7月份出現一些意外停產時，我們確實看到價格對這些停產的反應相當迅速，這表明該地區沒有太多的閒置庫存或閒置產能。

And if you look at utilization for acetyls, for China -- for global [asset], it's around 90%, about the same in China. So again, that suggests to us that although demand hasn't recovered significantly, there is enough demand matches the supply that we are in a place where we can see some price movement up as we see supply growing. I would say we're not seeing a lot of response yet to the stimulus. We hear a lot about it. We haven't seen a lot of response yet. But we think it's coming.

如果你看一下乙醯基的使用率，中國——甚至全球[資產]——大約是90%，中國的情況大致相同。這再次表明，儘管需求尚未顯著恢復，但需求與供應之間仍有足夠的匹配，因此隨著供應的增長，價格可能會上漲。我想說，我們目前還沒有看到對刺激計劃的太多反應。我們聽到了很多關於刺激計劃的消息。我們還沒有看到太多的回應。但我們認為它正在到來。

And there are some pockets of strength in China, in particular, autos remains pretty strong in China and the broader Asia area. But we see the pockets of weakness as well, electronics, especially consumer electronics, consumer goods. and I would say, challenged by the situation in Europe and the core economy in Europe, which is limiting exports out of China, which is also, I think, putting a damper on production of goods in China.

中國經濟有一些優勢，尤其是汽車業在中國乃至整個亞洲地區依然保持強勁。但我們也看到一些疲軟的領域，例如電子產品，尤其是消費性電子產品和消費品。我想說，歐洲局勢及其核心經濟體的挑戰在於，中國出口受到限制，而我認為，這也抑制了中國的商品生產。

Okay. Terrific. And then in terms of the current operating environment, obviously, it's very complex. And you're pulling the levers that you need to in terms of managing supply, et cetera. In the scenario that this sort of complexity spills over into 2024, what are some of the other internal offsets we should keep in mind as it relates to the variances '24 versus '23 from an earnings standpoint?

好的，太棒了。就當前的營運環境而言，顯然非常複雜。在管理供應等方面，我們正在採取必要的措施。如果這種複雜性延續到2024年，從獲利的角度來看，我們還應該考慮哪些其他內部抵銷因素，以因應2024年與2023年的差異？

Ghansham, I think it's a good point. We really have no visibility into 2024 at this time. So we don't really know what demand is going to look like in 2024. If I had to guess, I'd say it's going to be better than 2023, but we don't know. But there are a few things we do know that we know will give us an uplift, and we are confident will give us an uplift in 2024.

甘沙姆，我覺得你的觀點很有道理。目前我們真的無法預測2024年的狀況。所以我們真的不知道2024年的需求會是什麼樣子。如果非要我預測的話，我會說會比2023年好，但我們也不知道。不過，我們確實知道一些因素會為我們帶來提振，我們有信心這些因素會在2024年帶給我們提振。

So if you start with the engineering materials side, with the amount of inventory draw down we're doing this year, we will be able to have completely flushed through our higher-cost inventory as we move into 2024, which will give us lower variable costs in 2024.

因此，如果從工程材料方面開始，隨著我們今年庫存量的減少，到 2024 年，我們將能夠完全清除成本較高的庫存，這將降低 2024 年的變動成本。

We'll see less hits to our P&L from the inventory reductions. We'll see those in 2023. We don't anticipate a lot of those continuing into 2024 so that will be an uplift. We have an additional $150 million of M&M synergies, which will hit next year. That's helped by our first quarter SAP integration, which will get everything on the system and give us additional opportunities for and towards synergy as we get everything fully integrated and cost takeout.

庫存減少對損益的影響將會減少。我們將在2023年看到這一點。我們預計庫存減少不會持續到2024年，因此這將是一個提升。我們還有1.5億美元的M&M綜效，將於明年顯現。這得歸功於我們第一季的SAP集成，它將把所有東西都整合到系統中，並在我們全面整合所有東西並降低成本的同時，為我們提供更多實現協同效應的機會。

And of course, with the lack of destocking, I would expect to see next year since we'll have taken so much destocking this year, in addition to that lift then we'll get from share recovery, we should continue to see M&M volume recovery in particular.

當然，由於缺乏去庫存，我預計明年由於我們今年將進行大量的去庫存，再加上我們將從份額恢復中獲得的提振，我們應該會繼續看到 M&M 銷量的恢復。

On the Acetyl side, we know at a minimum, we have at least this additional $100 million contribution from Clear Lake asset that we have next year. And then with the more than $1 billion of net -- debt reduction that we will take this year, we'll have lower interest expenses next year. So again, if you take all those factors, those are things that we feel very confident will lift our earnings from '23 to '24 regardless of what happens to demand.

在乙醯基業務方面，我們知道明年Clear Lake資產至少會為我們帶來1億美元的額外貢獻。再加上今年超過10億美元的淨債務削減，明年的利息支出將會降低。所以，綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們非常有信心，無論需求如何變化，這些因素都將提升我們2023年至2024年的獲利。

Our next questions come from the line of Michael Leithead with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的邁克爾·萊特黑德。

First question, when you look at the weakness in Engineered Materials during 2Q and into 3Q, can you help us roughly understand how much is just due to weaker end demand versus how much is due to weaker price? And other than POM, can you talk about where you're seeing the most competitive pricing pressure today?

第一個問題，您能大致解釋一下，工程材料在第二季和第三季的疲軟表現中，有多少是因為終端需求疲軟造成的，又有多少是因為價格疲軟造成的嗎？除了工程材料（POM）之外，您能談談目前哪些領域的價格競爭壓力最大嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Mike, for your question. As we look at Q2, if we look at what we had guided to versus our performance, I mean, clearly we were below what we had expected in the quarter. I'd say half of that gap came from the M&M side. About half of that was really the inventory drawdown in M&M, which we really hadn't anticipated, so the earnings associated with that. And the other half is really just the weak demand, again, especially industrial and electronics. And how I would try to describe what's happened in demand if you look at differentiated products, that's really where we've seen lower volumes. We've seen our customers taking lower volumes of differentiated products, again, because they don't have the end market for their goods.

當然。 Mike，謝謝你的提問。回顧第二季度，如果我們將預期目標與實際業績進行比較，就會發現我們明顯低於預期。我認為差距一半來自M&M產品。其中大約一半實際上是M&M庫存的減少，這是我們之前沒有預料到的，因此盈利也受到了影響。另一半其實只是需求疲軟，尤其是工業和電子領域。如果從差異化產品來看，我試著描述一下需求方面的情況，差異化產品才是我們銷售下降的主要原因。我們發現客戶對差異化產品的購買量有所下降，因為他們的產品缺乏終端市場。

And we haven't moved price on differentiated. We've been able to hold price, but we've just seen the volume drop off. We have chosen to take molecules instead of moving them and therefore not needing them in differentiated. We've gone ahead and increased sales into the standard grade market, where we are able to capture volume but at a lower margin or a lower price. So it is a combination of volume and price and it is a big factor of mix in terms of less differentiated, more standard grade, again, allows us to keep volume, which we think is important as we move towards recovery, but we've had to take some price concessions to make that happen.

我們還沒有調整差異化產品的價格。我們能夠維持價格，但銷量卻下降。我們選擇直接採用分子而不是轉移分子，因此差異化產品中無需再進行轉移。我們已開始擴大標準級市場的銷售量，在這個市場中，我們能夠以較低的利潤率或較低的價格獲得銷售。所以，這是銷量和價格的結合，對於差異化程度較低、標準級更高的產品而言，這是一個重要的產品組合因素，這再次使我們能夠保持銷量，我們認為這對於我們走向復甦至關重要，但為了實現這一目標，我們不得不做出一些價格讓步。

And in terms of what molecules, I mean, POM is certainly the big one, I'd say, for the heritage selling these molecules. We've had a few others, especially those more differentiated molecules that go into electronics, connectors and that sort of thing, which have also had a volume impact. I think it's short-term. I think we'll see recovery there. And then on the M&M side, it's nylon. And again, I would say it's that switch from differentiated standard grade is more significant in terms of earnings than necessarily the volume -- any volume impact.

就分子材料而言，聚甲醛（POM）無疑是最重要的，我想說，對於我們銷售這些分子材料的傳統企業來說。我們還有其他一些產品，尤其是那些用於電子產品、連接器等產品的差異化分子材料，也對銷售產生了影響。我認為這只是短期現象。我認為我們會看到復甦。然後是M&M方面，是尼龍。我再說一次，從差異化標準級材料轉換到M&M，對獲利的影響比銷量——任何銷量影響——都更為重要。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then just second, if I look at your updated EPS guidance, it seems to imply going from about $2.25 at the midpoint in the third quarter to slightly north of $3 in 4Q. So can you just help us understand what you think kind of gets sequentially better there in the fourth quarter?

好的。這非常有幫助。其次，如果我查看您更新後的每股盈餘指引，似乎暗示每股盈餘將從第三季中期的約2.25美元上漲至第四季略高於3美元。那麼您能否幫助我們了解一下，您認為第四季的業績會如何較上季改善？

Sure. As we move from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, there's a couple of things happening. One is, we have initiated about an additional $60 million to $80 million of cost control. And most of that impact will show up in the fourth quarter since this is work that we've been doing just the last few months. So most of that will show up in the fourth quarter. You have additional M&M synergies, which show up in the fourth quarter versus third quarter. And then we are expecting a pretty robust fourth quarter. In fact, right now, we would say we would expect fourth quarter to be our best quarter of the year. So partly, we think that's on destocking. We think destocking in the Western Hemisphere should be over for the most part in the third quarter, probably a little bit of destocking carrying into the fourth quarter from Asia.

當然。從第三季到第四季度，有幾件事正在發生。首先，我們啟動了大約6000萬到8000萬美元的額外成本控制措施。由於這項工作我們最近幾個月才開始，大部分效果將在第四季顯現。此外，M&M的綜效在第四季有所體現，相較於第三季有所增強。我們預計第四季的業績將相當強勁。事實上，目前我們預計第四季將是今年業績最好的一個季度。我們認為，部分原因是去庫存。我們認為西半球的去庫存化應該在第三季基本上結束，亞洲的去庫存化可能會延續到第四季。

We also think we'll have less seasonality because we've had so much destocking across the year, we wouldn't expect the usual amount of seasonal destocking that we see in the fourth quarter. And the last factor I would say is given the acquisition of M&M, we are now more heavily weighted towards Asia and China than we were before. And typically, fourth quarter is a very strong quarter in Asia and China as we go before Chinese New Year, which will more than offset any seasonality we would expect to see in the Western Hemisphere.

我們也認為，由於我們全年都在大量去庫存，季節性因素的影響會減弱，我們預計第四季的季節性去庫存量不會像往常那麼大。我想說的最後一個因素是，鑑於收購M&M，我們現在比以前更重視亞洲和中國市場。通常情況下，第四季度是亞洲和中國市場表現非常強勁的一個季度，因為正值農曆新年之前，這將足以抵消我們預期西半球會出現的任何季節性因素。

Our next questions come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Can you talk about VAM volume growth or contraction by geography, please?

您能否談談按地區劃分的 VAM 交易量成長或收縮？

Thanks, Jeff. On VAM, Jeff, in general, the markets have been a little weak for VAM, as we've seen. I would say Europe is still our most challenged geography. Really, there's not been a rebound in paints and coatings, construction and building as we continue to see the economy really drag on VAM. I think globally, the indication of this is we do see VAM utilization has moderated into the mid-80s on a global basis, which is the lowest we've seen for many years, I would say, I mean, really since early COVID.

謝謝，傑夫。關於VAM，傑夫，總的來說，如我們所見，VAM市場略顯疲軟。我想說，歐洲仍然是我們面臨的最大挑戰。事實上，油漆塗料、建築和建築業尚未出現反彈，因為我們持續看到經濟狀況對VAM造成嚴重拖累。我認為，在全球範圍內，這種情況的跡像是，我們確實看到VAM的利用率在全球範圍內已降至85%左右，這是我們多年來看到的最低水平，我的意思是，自新冠疫情初期以來。

We are seeing some recovery in VAM in the U.S., I'd say, especially -- or in the Americas, I should say, especially in packaging. Packaging continues to be pretty strong. And that's one of our bigger end markets in the Americas. And then in China, although we see some of the more industrial uses of VAM coming back, again, not seen a lot of rebound yet in construction and building, although with some of the stimulus that's been announced, perhaps that is to come here in the second half.

我想說，我們看到美國的VAM市場有所復甦，尤其是在美洲，尤其是在包裝產業。包裝市場持續強勁成長。這是我們在美洲最大的終端市場之一。在中國，雖然我們看到VAM的一些工業用途有所回暖，但建築業尚未出現大幅反彈，儘管一些刺激措施已經出台，但或許下半年才能真正看到反彈。

Okay. And then for Scott, are there any hard objectives that you need to reach in order to retain your investment-grade rating? Or are there no hard objectives?

好的。那麼史考特，為了維持你的投資等級，你需要達到什麼硬性目標嗎？或者說，沒有硬性目標？

Yes. I think, Jeff, we've been talking very consistently going back to when we announced the deal in 2022 about 2 focus areas. The first is reducing net debt by $1 billion in 2023 and then achieving 3x levered towards the end of '24 into early '25. And I think those continue to be where we're focused on. I think that first objective, as we called out in the prepared comments, we're very confident given the cash flow that we're going to generate this year of hitting that $1 billion of debt reduction.

是的。傑夫，我想，自從我們在2022年宣布這項交易以來，我們就一直在討論兩個重點領域。首先是在2023年將淨債務減少10億美元，然後在2024年底到2025年初實現3倍槓桿。我認為這些仍然是我們關注的重點。我認為，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，考慮到我們今年將產生的現金流，我們非常有信心實現10億美元的債務減免。

And then with the additional proceeds coming in from the Food Ingredients transaction, that will allow us to actually go up another $450 million above that from a debt reduction perspective. So definitely on track and tracking ahead for that first objective and then continuing to build plans and a focus around cash generation and harvesting as well as the EBITDA lift into '24 that Lori talked about a few minutes ago to be able to get to that second objective.

再加上食品配料交易帶來的額外收益，從減債的角度來看，我們實際上可以在此基礎上再增加4.5億美元。因此，我們肯定在朝著第一個目標穩步前進，然後繼續制定計劃，重點關注現金創造和收穫，以及Lori幾分鐘前提到的2024年EBITDA的提升，以便能夠實現第二個目標。

Our next questions come from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

Just in your prepared remarks, you talked about the mix impact within M&M. I just recall one of your opportunities to grow earnings, you were going to go after some of the more commodity markets that maybe DuPont walked away from. Has anything there changed in terms of that mix impact or really where you can go after different shares? Any of that taking place this year? Or is that more of a longer-term target now?

剛才您在準備好的發言中談到了M&M的投資組合影響。我記得您曾經考慮過提高盈利的一個機會，那就是進軍一些杜邦可能已經放棄的大宗商品市場。那麼，這種投資組合影響有什麼改變嗎？或者說，您實際上可以進軍哪些不同的股票？這些變化在今年會發生嗎？或者說，現在這更像是長期目標？

No, I wouldn't say the longer-term target. It's just -- it will take us probably through the end of '24 or maybe even in '25 to recover all of that volume. I mean some of the strength you see in M&M volume is starting to get some of that standard grade back. Again, we've had some offsets though as we've had lower demand for differentiated grades. But we have been able to go after and get some of that standard grade back.

不，我不會說長期目標。只是－我們可能要等到2024年底，甚至2025年才能恢復全部銷售量。我的意思是，你看到的M&M銷售強勁成長，已經開始帶動部分標準等級的銷售回升。雖然我們也受到了一些抵消，因為對差異化等級的需求有所下降。但我們已經能夠追趕並恢復部分標準等級的銷售量。

I mean, the good news is DuPont Zytel has really been specced into all of these standard grades at some point. So it's not a question of having to recertify. But some of the standard grade markets do work on contracts. So we need to wait for people's contracts to roll out so we can get the opportunity to go in there. So I would say we're on track with our plan to recover standard grade, more commodity grades, if you will, to use your words, materials. But it is something that will take us several years to get it back fully, again, just because of the way the business is contracted.

我的意思是，好消息是杜邦 Zytel 確實在某種程度上被納入了所有這些標準等級的規格。所以這不是需要重新認證的問題。但有些標準等級市場確實是透過合約運作的。所以我們需要等待客戶合約的簽訂，這樣我們才有機會進入這些市場。所以我認為我們正在按計劃恢復標準等級，以及更多商品等級（如果你願意的話，用你的話來說）的供應。但我們需要幾年時間才能完全恢復，這同樣是因為業務的合約簽訂方式。

And just on the cash side, I guess, I mean, with the JV, you liberated some additional cash, I mean, how do you think about the opportunities there over the next year or so? Are there any other opportunities that you could maybe accelerate because of the uncertain demand environment? Or should we think about improvement being more organic based?

就現金方面而言，我想說，透過合資公司，你們釋放了一些額外的現金。您如何看待未來一年左右的機會？由於需求環境的不確定性，還有其他可以加速的機會嗎？還是我們應該考慮更有機地進行改進？

So I'll let Scott comment on the math. What I would say is, look, we remain confident in our ability to generate sufficient cash flow through earnings and through inventory drawdown and other steps to meet all of our debt requirements and commitments. And so we'll continue to be opportunistic as we always have been in terms of future divestments and opportunities. That really hasn't changed, again, because we have a lot of confidence in our ability to meet our cash commitments.

所以，我請斯科特來評論一下計算結果。我想說的是，我們仍然有信心，我們有能力透過獲利、庫存減少和其他措施產生足夠的現金流，以滿足我們所有的債務需求和承諾。因此，在未來的資產剝離和機會方面，我們將繼續一如既往地保持機會主義。這一點確實沒有改變，因為我們對履行現金承諾的能力充滿信心。

Yes. And I think while we'll be opportunistic on possible other deals, our focus really is on what we can really control. And we've been now talking most of this year about reducing our inventories and harvesting cash from the balance sheet and then focusing on cash -- our CapEx, bringing that down to $500 million this year, and then as we put in the prepared comments, lowering even further down to $400 million next year. And so with that and then the expectation of higher earnings, we do believe that as we continue to work our way through the second half of this year and then into next year, the free cash flow generation will be robust and then we will use that cash to continue to aggressively lower debt.

是的。我認為，雖然我們會抓住其他可能的交易機會，但我們真正關注的是我們真正能夠掌控的事情。今年大部分時間我們都在談論減少庫存、從資產負債表中獲取現金，然後專注於現金——我們的資本支出，今年將其降至5億美元，然後正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，明年將進一步降至4億美元。因此，基於這些因素，以及對更高收益的預期，我們相信，隨著我們繼續努力度過今年下半年以及明年，自由現金流的產生將保持強勁，屆時我們將利用這些現金繼續大幅降低債務。

Our next questions come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Scott, I'm wondering if you can give us any more color on your comments in the prepared remarks about being able to term the debt out and remove the refi risk from the next several years.

史考特，我想知道您是否可以在準備好的評論中為我們提供有關能夠延長債務期限並消除未來幾年再融資風險的評論的更多資訊。

Yes. I mean, we put the maturities in place that we did a year ago because that's what was available to us. And what that yielded was higher levels of maturities coming up in 2024 and 2025. And so as we said at the time, we would be opportunistic around what we could do to bring those towers down. As we look at the landscape, we think there could be an opportunity for us to bring those down and really match up the maturities over the next few years with the lower levels of cash flow that we're at with where the economy is right now, but still very robust. And so bringing those down to the levels of free cash flow generation in the next couple of years.

是的。我的意思是，我們一年前就設定了到期期限，因為當時我們手上只有這些期限。結果就是，2024年和2025年的到期期限更長。所以，正如我們當時所說，我們會抓住機會，盡可能地拆除這些大樓。縱觀全局，我們認為我們有機會降低這些期限，並在未來幾年內將到期期限與我們目前較低但仍然非常強勁的現金流水平相匹配。因此，在未來幾年內，我們將這些期限降低到能夠產生自由現金流的水平。

And that would be straight debt? Or are you considering a convertible type thing or anything like that?

那會是直接債務嗎？或者你們有考慮過可轉換債務之類的嗎？

Our focus in the past has really been around bonds and term loans, and we think that's been the right structure for us from a capital perspective. We've looked at everything, but that's our current focus.

我們過去的重點實際上是債券和定期貸款，我們認為從資本角度來看，這對我們來說是合適的結構。我們已經考慮了所有方面，但這是我們目前的重點。

Our next questions come from the line of Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可·西森。

In the last quarter, you had a -- you gave us a bridge to get that extra $1 per share, a couple of things, M&M integration, unwinding high-cost inventory, lower natural gas and a couple of other things. So when you think about that dollar, is -- could you just give us a little bit of color of how that has changed in the sense that is it -- you still have that $1, but there's a bunch more minuses that sort of get you to the third quarter and fourth quarter outlook?

上個季度，你們為我們提供了一筆額外的1美元每股收益，這筆收益來自M&M的整合、高成本庫存的清倉、天然氣價格的下降以及其他一些因素。所以，說到這1美元，能否稍微解釋一下它是如何改變的？也就是說，你們仍然擁有那1美元，但還有許多其他的負值，這些負值與你們對第三季和第四季的展望有什麼關係？

Mike, if you look at that, we really -- we were seeing some uplift in acetyl last quarter when we gave our outlook. We had expected that to probably continue over the quarter obviously. And acetyl had a good quarter. They came in at the bottom end of the range, but not further up in the range because we did see some settling back, if you will, to below -- kind of at cost curve levels.

麥克，如果你仔細看看，我們在上個季度發布展望時確實看到了乙醯基產品有所提升。我們原本預計這種情況可能會在本季持續下去。乙醯基產品本季表現不錯。它們處於區間的底部，但沒有進一步上升，因為我們確實看到了一些回落，或者說，回落到成本曲線以下的水平。

And then in Engineered Materials, as I said, what we really saw is we saw a bit more of an inventory impact in M&M.

然後，在工程材料方面，正如我所說，我們真正看到的是 M&M 的庫存影響更大一些。

We saw this really continued destocking and especially in industrial and E&E. And we had last -- again, for the same reasons as acetyl, when we did our earnings call last quarter, we really were seeing strong order books in April and saw that as an indication of some recovery happening across the quarter. And again, in May and June, we saw that really not happen.

我們看到庫存持續減少，尤其是在工業和電子電氣領域。同樣，出於與乙醯基相同的原因，我們在上個季度的財報電話會議上看到，4月份的訂單量強勁，並認為這是整個季度經濟復甦的跡象。然而，在5月和6月，我們發現這種情況並沒有真正發生。

So I think we -- certainly, while we're just [pointing out] performance, I think we understand it. And I think we feel very confident, though, in the guide that we've given for the rest of the year.

所以我認為——當然，雖然我們只是[指出]業績表現，但我認為我們理解這一點。而且我認為，我們對今年剩餘時間的業績預期非常有信心。

Got it. And then again, if you take a look at your outlook the prior quarter, fourth quarter would have been somewhere around $3.50. And I think there was some confidence that, that would be a good run rate heading into 2024, meeting $14-some like EPS. So when you think about the new run rate of $3 in the fourth quarter, I know predicting next year is a little bit early, but how do you think about that $3 in the fourth quarter as it relates to a run rate potential for '24?

明白了。再說一次，如果你回顧上一季的預測，第四季的每股盈餘應該在3.5美元左右。我認為大家有信心，這會是個不錯的2024年營收成長速度，達到每股收益14美元左右。所以，考慮到第四季3美元的營收成長速度，我知道預測明年略早，但你如何看待第四季3美元的營收成長速度與2024年營收成長潛力之間的關係？

Look, I don't -- again, just looking at the actions I laid out earlier, the things that are within our control, I think that's a very reasonable expectation.

聽著，我不這麼認為——再說一次，只要看看我之前列出的行動，看看我們能控制的事情，我認為這是非常合理的期望。

Our next questions come from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

In your prepared remarks, you guys talked about the destocking lasting longer than previous cycles. Now obviously, having lived through '08, '09, the COVID lockdown period and the like, I mean, multiple lessons must have been learned. So my question really is that as you think about the restock -- being a longer-duration destock certainly seems like a deeper destock. What potentially over the next couple of years, do you think the restock will look like? And I guess where I'm going with this is, has the sort of inventory appetite of your customers changed materially, living through all the craziness of the last decade or so?

在你們準備好的發言中，你們談到了這次去庫存週期比以往週期更長。顯然，經歷過2008年、2009年以及新冠疫情封鎖期等等，我們肯定吸取了不少教訓。所以我的問題是，當你想到補貨時——持續時間較長的去庫存似乎意味著更深層的去庫存。你認為未來幾年的補庫存狀況會是如何？我想問的是，在經歷了過去十年左右的瘋狂之後，你們客戶的庫存偏好是否發生了實質的變化？

That's a really interesting question, Hassan. It's always hard to predict some of our customer behavior. I think we are seeing a very deep destock. And I think that speaks to the uncertainty people feel about the market, I think again especially the uncertainty in Europe and what that means just not for the European market, but also for the China export market. If we look at U.S. markets, I would say, reasonably recovered, probably not a lot of destocking left.

哈桑，這個問題很有趣。我們的一些客戶行為總是很難預測。我認為我們正在經歷非常嚴重的去庫存化。我認為這反映了人們對市場的不確定性，尤其是歐洲的不確定性，這不僅對歐洲市場，也對中國出口市場意味著什麼。如果我們看看美國市場，我想說，它已經相當復甦了，去庫存的餘地可能不大了。

I would tell you, though, China for China is doing okay, but China for export is really where that uncertainty lies. And we see value continue to be taken out of the chain as well as all of the -- everything into Europe.

不過，我想說，中國對華出口表現還不錯，但中國出口才是真正的不確定性。我們看到價值鏈上的所有環節都在流失，所有商品都流入了歐洲。

So it's a very kind of unusual global situation that we have right now as a result. I think -- and with low prices, people assume prices are staying low so there's no reason to carry inventory. There's a lot of availability of material. So there's no reason to carry inventory. But we also saw post-COVID how this can change very quickly. As soon as prices start to increase, as soon as we start to see consistent demand recovery, I do believe customers won't want to be back in the same situation they were at the end of 2020, and will start to see people wanting to restock.

因此，我們現在面臨的全球局勢非常不尋常。我認為——價格低迷，人們認為價格會持續走低，所以沒有理由囤積庫存。原料供應充足，所以沒有理由囤積庫存。但我們也看到了疫情過後，這種情況可能會迅速改變。一旦價格開始上漲，一旦我們開始看到需求持續復甦，我相信客戶不會再回到2020年底的那種境況，他們會開始看到人們想要補貨。

So maybe a direct answer to your question, I think it is a deeper destocking because of the accumulation of just global macroeconomics, geopolitics and everything else. But I have no reason to think we won't see a recovery at some point. And I think -- I don't think people have gotten comfortable with a lower level of inventory once demand comes back. I think there's just a lot of uncertainty about what is that timing of demand recovery.

所以，或許可以直接回答你的問題：我認為這是更深層的去庫存化，因為全球宏觀經濟、地緣政治以及其他所有因素都在累積作用。但我沒有理由認為我們不會在某個時候看到復甦。而且我認為——我認為一旦需求回升，人們就不會對較低的庫存水準感到安心。我認為，需求復甦的時機究竟何時到來，存在著許多不確定性。

Very helpful. And as a follow-up, on the EM side of it, again in your prepared remarks, you guys talked about moving from exclusive distribution arrangements in the West to dual or multi-distribution approaches. How do you see the impact of that sort of playing out near-term as well as on a go-forward basis?

非常有幫助。接下來，關於新興市場方面，你們在準備好的發言中再次提到了從西方的獨家分銷模式轉向雙重或多重分銷模式。您如何看待這種模式在短期和未來的影響？

Yes. I think it's really a matter here of, we are such a much bigger company now that continuing to have single distributors in these major geographies is probably not giving us the breadth and the reach to the amount of customers we need to be reaching to generate the new opportunities and volume sales that we desire to have. So this is just about we need to have multiple partners to really get to the full range of customers and the full range of end markets.

是的。我認為真正的問題是，我們現在的公司規模已經大了很多，繼續在這些主要地區依賴單一分銷商可能無法提供足夠的廣度和覆蓋範圍，從而無法創造我們渴望的新機會和銷售。所以，我們需要多個合作夥伴，才能真正接觸到全方位的客戶和終端市場。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Just a follow up on the balance sheet discussion. Scott, you ended the quarter with $1.3 billion in cash, and I believe you have another $450 million coming in from the Nutrinova deal. Is it your intention to just continue to accumulate cash to address your senior unsecured notes due in July of 2024? Or would you prefer to refinance them over the next few quarters instead of paying them off with cash?

關於資產負債表的討論，我再問一下。史考特，本季末你們的現金餘額為13億美元，而且我相信你們還會從收購Nutrinova的交易中獲得4.5億美元的現金。你們是打算繼續累積現金來償還2024年7月到期的優先無擔保票據嗎？還是你們更願意在接下來的幾季裡進行再融資，而不是用現金償還？

Yes, Kevin, I think we're not in the business of holding cash right now. We want to find ways at which to reduce that debt as quickly as we can. We still have term loans that we have coming up. And so we can utilize that cash for the term loans. I would also remind you, we do have a $300 million interest payment in the third quarter. So we will use the cash we have on hand for that. And then we have maturities coming up still later this year that we will handle as well.

是的，凱文，我認為我們現在不應該持有現金。我們希望找到盡快減少債務的方法。我們還有一些即將到期的定期貸款。所以我們可以利用這些現金來償還這些定期貸款。我還想提醒你，我們第三季有3億美元的利息支出。所以我們會用手邊的現金來支付這筆利息。此外，我們今年稍後還會有一些到期的債務，我們也會處理。

We've talked very openly about having cash in other geographies that we need to move back to the U.S., and we're building those pipelines now, and we expect to be able to get that cash back here to the U.S. by the end of the year. And then once we get our systems integrated in the first part of next year, that will give us an ability to operate the company at a much lower amount of cash, probably right around $500 million. So I think with that, that's going to free up a lot of opportunity for us to use that cash for deleveraging, given the maturities we have coming up plus the term loans we have outstanding.

我們曾公開討論在其他地區持有的現金需要調回美國的問題，目前正在建立相關管道，預計年底前能將這些現金調回美國。等到明年上半年我們完成系統整合後，就能以更低的現金規模營運公司，大概在5億美元左右。考慮到我們即將到期的債務以及未償還的定期貸款，我認為這將為我們釋放大量機會，並利用這些現金進行去槓桿。

I see. And then on a related note, your balance sheet reflects approximately $1.5 billion as the sum of short-term debt and current portion of long-term debt. That actually ticked up a little bit sequentially. I would have thought that it would go the other way with the term loan paydown of $370 million. Can you speak to what's in there in terms of how much you might have drawn on the revolver and what you might owe affiliates at this point?

我明白了。然後順便提一下，您的資產負債表顯示，短期債務和長期債務的流動部分總和約為15億美元。這實際上環比略有上升。我原本以為，隨著3.7億美元的定期貸款償還，情況會有所改善。您能否談談這筆循環貸款中可能動用了多少，以及目前您可能欠關聯公司的款項是多少？

Yes. Mainly it's ticked up, Kevin, just because of foreign exchange, mainly the euro moved up a little bit. But that's the big delta there.

是的。凱文，主要是因為外匯，歐元略有上漲，所以才上漲了。但這確實是一個很大的增量。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

It seems like a sharp acceleration in the China macro, I don't know, maybe needed to improve the POM and PA66 trade flows. Like is that right? And does the recent PA66 capacity expansions within Asia-China make that business recovery more challenging?

我覺得中國宏觀經濟似乎急劇加速，或許是為了改善聚甲醛（POM）和尼龍66（PA66）的貿易流量。是這樣嗎？最近亞洲及中國地區PA66產能擴充是否會讓業務復甦更具挑戰性？

Look, our outlook is really not based on any increase in demand. We have a little bit of improvement of destocking occurring in the rest of the year, again, based on our view of the market. But we really aren't forecasting any uptick in demand in any particular region. So I wouldn't say that's needed to meet our $9 to $10 range for the year. Certainly it would be welcome, but I wouldn't say it's needed. And I would say the expansions in nylon, nylon has always been pretty well supplied. There's been plenty of compounders, there's been plenty of polymerization out there, the expansion that you've seen or maybe more on the upstream side, the raw material side of that.

瞧，我們的前景實際上並非基於任何需求成長。根據我們對市場的預測，今年剩餘時間去庫存的情況會略有改善。但我們實際上並未預測任何特定地區的需求會有任何上升。因此，我不認為需求成長是達到我們今年9至10美元價格區間的必要條件。當然，需求成長會受到歡迎，但我不會說這是必要的。我想說的是，尼龍的產能擴張，尼龍的供應一直相當充足。市場上有很多複合材料生產商，也有很多聚合設備，你所看到的擴張，或者說更多的是在上游，也就是原料方面。

So I don't see that, that really changes our dynamics much around nylon. We continue to focus our nylon on more differentiation, getting into highly differentiated products, looking for new applications, new end markets that share regain based on our good customer relationships, especially in standard grade, that's what I talked about earlier, the regain of share over the next couple of years with those and really taking advantage of our integrated value chain and our option to be in or out of the polymerization market depending on where things are.

所以我認為這不會對我們尼龍業務的動態產生太大影響。我們將繼續專注於尼龍的差異化，開發高度差異化的產品，尋找新的應用和新的終端市場，並基於我們良好的客戶關係重新獲得市場份額，尤其是在標準級產品方面，這就是我之前提到的，我們將在未來幾年內重新獲得市場份額，並充分利用我們一體化的價值鏈，以及根據市場情況選擇進入或退出聚合市場。

So I'd say I think we're positioned well to either make, blend or buy it, whatever works out. And our value really comes from differentiation.

所以我想說，無論哪種方式，我們都處於有利地位，無論是自主生產、調配或收購，都可以。我們的價值真正源自於差異化。

Maybe if I can give you some examples because we've often gotten this question around nylon relative to EVs. We've recently actually just completed 2 new contracts for EV parts made from nylon. One is for a major OEM, we have a part now going into EV motor mounts, which will use Zytel. And then we have a second application we just finished for the AC compressor bracket, which is made from Zytel, which is going into EVs. And why this is important is we talked about at the time of the deal but may have gone unnoticed is there are a lot of applications for nylon into EVs, especially as you think about EVs being quiet.

我可以舉幾個例子，因為我們常被問到尼龍與電動車的關係。我們最近剛完成了兩份新的電動車零件合同，這些零件是用尼龍製成的。一份是為一家大型汽車製造商（OEM）生產的，我們現在有一個零件用於電動汽車引擎支架，會用到Zytel。另一份是剛完成的空調壓縮機支架，也是用Zytel製成的，將用於電動車。這很重要，我們在交易時就討論過，但可能被忽視了，因為尼龍在電動車中的應用非常廣泛，尤其是考慮到電動車的噪音非常小。

People want less noise, they need less vibration. And polymer parts, and in particular in nylon, for those that require strength, are great parts to replace metal and other things, not just for light weighting but also to give consumers the experience they want from an EV. And so we're already starting to see some successes using the Celanese knowledge of the EV market in our contact with those customers and applying Zytel to those and winning some new businesses there.

人們希望降低噪音，減少振動。而聚合物零件，尤其是尼龍零件，對於那些需要高強度性能的零件來說，是替代金屬和其他材料的絕佳選擇，不僅減輕了重量，還能為消費者帶來他們想要的電動車體驗。因此，我們已經開始看到一些成功案例，我們利用塞拉尼斯對電動車市場的了解，與這些客戶接觸，並將 Zytel 應用於這些客戶，並在那裡贏得了一些新業務。

I appreciate that. I guess I wasn't necessarily worried about the 9% to 10% number this year in recovery, more just in general with repairing some of these markets, like particularly, I guess, POM. Because it's not one we have a ton of line of sight into from a supply/demand basis. Is it really just trade flows from China and China is kind of sitting on the cost curve into Europe? Or is there -- and if that's the case, I guess, what reverse is that?

我很感激。我不太擔心今年9%到10%的復甦數字，我更擔心的是一些市場正在修復，尤其是POM市場。因為從供需角度來看，我們對POM市場了解不多。真的只是來自中國的貿易流，而中國在成本曲線上佔據了歐洲的主導地位嗎？或者說，如果是這樣，那麼反過來又是什麼呢？

Matthew, I think it's important -- we have a lot of history here in POM. And these situations tend to be temporary, where co-producers in the market have made too much material and they move it into other regions even if they just have to get rid of that material. Our cost to serve in Europe and the U.S. is really unparalleled with our facilities in Bishop, Texas as well as there in Frankfurt, Germany. And with that, our ability to win sustainably has been proven out over time. These do tend to be temporary fluctuations. So we do not expect that this is something that is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

馬修，我認為這一點很重要──我們在POM有著豐富的經驗。這種情況往往是暫時的，例如市場上的共同製作人製作了太多素材，他們會把素材轉移到其他地區，即使他們必須處理掉這些素材。我們在歐洲和美國的服務成本與我們在德克薩斯州畢曉普以及德國法蘭克福的設施相比，確實是無與倫比的。正因如此，我們持續取勝的能力已經得到了時間的證明。這些波動往往是暫時的。因此，我們預計這種情況在可預見的未來不會持續下去。

Our next questions come from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just going back to the guidance. So now the new midpoint is around $9.50, and if you just go through the Q3, that $2.10 to $2.50 with $2.30 at the midpoint, it kind of implies around $3 for Q4. So you noted that Q4 is going to be your strongest quarter. Could you just maybe bucket out that bridge between $2.30 and $3 from Q3 to Q4? We can do the math, but I just wanted to hear it from you as well as to how the 2 segments kind of play out.

回到業績指引。現在新的中間價在9.50美元左右，如果只算第三季度，也就是2.10美元到2.50美元之間，中間價為2.30美元，這意味著第四季的業績在3美元左右。所以您之前提到第四季將是業績最強勁的季度。您能否將第三季到第四季2.30美元到3美元之間的中間價區間劃分出來？我們可以算一下，但我只是想聽聽您的意見，以及這兩個部分的具體表現。

Yes. Look, I would say -- I would expect for the year, we've called out Acetyl Chain will be a foundational level of earnings. So you can pencil in $1.3 billion for the Acetyl Chain. So essentially a second half very similar to the first half. And then in Engineered Materials is where we'll see the lift. And again, about half of that coming from -- or maybe a little more -- probably about half of that coming from M&M, really, as we continue to regain share as we continue to move pricing on differentiated grades, and then you also have the other half coming from EM as we see the end of destocking really here in the Americas and a little bit of recovery and other -- well, not really recovery but end of destocking in other markets.

是的。我想說的是——我預計今年，我們之前提到的乙醯基鏈業務將成為獲利的基礎。所以乙醯基鏈業務的獲利預計為13億美元。所以下半年的業績基本上與上半年非常相似。然後，工程材料業務將迎來成長。其中大約一半——或者可能更多一點——可能大約一半來自M&M，實際上，隨著我們持續調整差異化等級產品的價格，市場份額不斷回升。另一半來自新興市場，因為我們看到美洲市場的去庫存化已經結束，出現了一些復甦，以及其他——好吧，不是真正的復甦，而是其他市場去庫存化的結束。

We also get a little bit of -- the biggest piece of this, though, and a lot of this will be in EM, is the $60 million to $80 million of additional cost and productivity activities that we've undertaken, most of which will show up in the fourth quarter. And again, you'll also have the help in M&M from the additional uplift of synergies in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter and a little bit of help from lower interest expense on debt paydown. So all of those together accumulate to make fourth quarter what should be our best quarter of the year.

我們也獲得了一些收益——其中最大的部分，很大一部分將集中在新興市場（EM），即我們開展的6000萬至8000萬美元的額外成本和生產力活動，其中大部分將在第四季度體現出來。此外，第四季與第三季相比，綜效的進一步提升也將對M&M業務帶來幫助，而債務償還利息支出的降低也帶來了一些幫助。所有這些因素加在一起，將使第四季成為我們今年表現最好的一個季度。

All right. And just as a follow-up then. So you'll be exiting the year at maybe a $3 run rate, gets you kind of back into that $11 to $12 range for next year. Is that the right way to think about it? I mean, are you seeing the end of this destocking cycle? And was there any risk to that view? Would it be maybe an automotive kind of slowdown from the strike or anything like that? Or is there -- what are some of the risks to maybe not achieve that level of earnings power as you look into '24?

好的。接下來還有個後續問題。所以，今年年底你的股價可能只有3美元，明年你的股價會回到11到12美元的區間。這樣想對嗎？我的意思是，你認為這一輪去庫存週期結束了嗎？這種觀點是否有風險？會不會是罷工之類的因素導致汽車業放緩？或者，展望2024年，有哪些風險可能導致你無法達到那樣的獲利水準？

Again, if I go back to what I went through earlier, if I look at '24, I don't -- look, I think that number that you're laying out there is not a bad number from kind of a base. But if you look, there are a lot of things -- and that just assumes steady demand with the end of '24 which, again, we're not -- with the end of '23. And again, we're not forecasting any great uptick in demand at the end of '23, we're just forecasting [the end of] destocking.

再說一遍，如果我回顧一下之前討論的內容，如果我展望2024年，我認為你列出的數字從某種程度上來說還不錯。但如果你仔細觀察，你會發現有很多因素——這只是假設2024年底需求保持穩定，而我們並沒有——假設2023年底需求保持穩定。再說一次，我們並沒有預測2023年底需求會大幅上升，我們只是預測去庫存階段會結束。

So I don't see a lot of destocking continuing to occur next year. And again, if we look at just those things we can control, we will be in a better position from a variable cost standpoint as we flush high cost inventory out of the system this year. We will not have the inventory, the level of inventory reduction hit next year, which will help next year. We have the additional $150 million of M&M synergies. And we have the additional $100 million from Clear Lake assets. So I would say, if you take the fourth quarter and annualize it, I would see that more as a floor than as our expected level of performance for next year.

所以我認為明年不會繼續出現大量去庫存的情況。再說一次，如果我們只看那些我們能控制的因素，那麼從變動成本的角度來看，隨著我們今年清理掉系統中的高成本庫存，我們將處於更有利的地位。我們不會有庫存，明年的庫存削減水準將有所提升，這將對明年有所幫助。我們還有1.5億美元的M&M綜效，以及來自Clear Lake資產的1億美元額外收益。所以，我想說，如果把第四季的業績按年化，我認為這更像是底線，而不是我們對明年業績的預期。

Our next questions come from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, do you have an updated forecast for M&M EBITDA for the full year?

Lori，您對 M&M 全年 EBITDA 有最新預測嗎？

Scott, do you have that number?

史考特，你有這個號碼嗎？

Yes, David, I think as we put out the Q3 number, it's another lift off of where we were in the second quarter, which was a lift off of the first quarter. As we go into Q4, as Lori mentioned, we would expect another lift up. So that kind of puts you in that range, when you add up kind of all of those numbers, somewhere in that $500 million to $600 million range. We're going to try to get to the top end of that range or even exceed it, depending on where Q4 lands, but that's kind of where we'd be. But you're getting a lot closer on a quarterly basis as you end the year to kind of that quarterly accretion level that we talked about last quarter.

是的，大衛，我認為我們公佈的第三季數據比第二季的水平又有提升，而第二季的水平比第一季又有所提升。正如洛里所說，進入第四季度，我們預計會再次成長。所以，如果把所有這些數字加起來，大概就是5億到6億美元這個區間。我們會努力達到這個區間的上限，甚至超過這個上限，這取決於第四季的最終結果，但基本上可以確定。到年底，我們每季的業績會越來越接近我們上個季度談到的季度成長水準。

Understood. And Lori, just on the additional $60 million to $80 million of cost savings -- cost reductions, is that permanent? Is it somewhat temporary? And is it -- a little more color on that would be helpful.

明白了。 Lori，關於額外節省的6000萬到8000萬美元——成本削減，是永久性的嗎？還是暫時性的？如果能更詳細地解釋一下會更有幫助。

Yes. If I look at the $60 million to $80 million, some of it is definitely onetime. So if you look about half of it is related to production actions. So these are things that are focused on the fact that we have lower demand and so better optimizing when we're taking turnarounds, how we're doing turnarounds. I mean, if we don't need the capacity right -- back right away, for example, we can do it without overtime and just take a bit longer to do a turnaround. We are idling facilities, not so much entire facilities, but say, lines within a compounding unit. So that allows us not to staff as much, power savings, et cetera. So reduce overtime, reduced use of contractors, again, really in response to demand.

是的。如果算上這6000萬到8000萬美元，一定有一部分是一次性的。所以，大約有一半是跟生產活動有關。這些支出的重點在於，我們的需求較低，因此需要更好地優化檢修時間和檢修方式。我的意思是，如果我們不需要立即恢復產能——比如說，我們可以不加班，只是需要更長的時間來完成檢修。我們閒置的是一些設施，不是整套設施，而是複合單元內的生產線。這樣可以減少人員配置，節省電力等等。減少加班和承包商的使用，這實際上是為了回應需求。

So I would say those are onetime or temporary actions. They're not things that -- hopefully, demand comes back and then these are things that we can reverse. And the other half, I would say, these tend to be -- a lot of them tend to be small and a lot of these are onetime as well. So continuing to really reduce travel across Celanese, which is worth a few million, reduction in promotional and marketing spend, a few million as well. So again, most of these are temporary.

所以我想說，這些都是一次性或暫時的措施。它們並非指望需求回升就能扭轉局勢的措施。我想說，另一半措施往往規模較小，而且很多都是一次性的。例如，繼續大幅減少塞拉尼斯的差旅，這需要數百萬美元；此外，還要減少促銷和行銷支出，也需要數百萬美元。所以，這些措施大多是暫時的。

Look, there are some things there which is acceleration of the synergies that we have laid out for the acquisition of M&M. So where we have redundant positions, for example, in the organization, going ahead and removing those redundancies now versus maybe having waited until later in the year or even into next year. And so I'd say it's probably, just guessing off the top of my head, kind of 2/3 things that I'd say are more temporary in nature and related to the reduction in demand that we're seeing and our focus on maximizing cash in this period of time. And then the other 1/3 would be kind of acceleration of steps we had planned to take later in the year and into next year.

你看，有些事情是為了加速我們為收購M&M所規劃的綜效。例如，對於組織中冗餘的職位，我們現在就著手裁減這些冗餘職位，而不是等到今年稍後甚至明年。所以，我大概猜一下，大概有三分之二的事情是暫時的，與我們看到的需求下降以及我們專注於在這段時間內實現現金最大化有關。另外三分之一的事情將加速我們計劃在今年稍後和明年採取的措施。

Our next questions come from the line of Duffy Fischer with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的達菲·菲舍爾。

Could you just comment, have you seen any change in behavior in polyplastics since you sold your half to Daicel? And are they part of the kind of competitive dynamics issues that you called out in those increased imports into Europe?

您能否評論一下，自從寶理塑膠將一半股份出售給大賽璐之後，您發現寶理塑膠的行為有什麼變化嗎？這是否屬於您之前提到的歐洲進口增加所導致的競爭動態問題的一部分？

Yes. I don't think we've really seen any difference in their behavior. I mean, nothing different than we're seeing in the rest of the industry in response to kind of the macro conditions that we're all experiencing right now.

是的。我認為我們並沒有看到他們的行為有什麼改變。我的意思是，在應對我們目前都在經歷的宏觀經濟狀況時，他們的行為和我們在其他行業看到的行為沒有什麼不同。

Fair enough. And then sequentially or year-over-year, what did Ibn Sina contribute to 2Q? And then what does that do in the back half of the year?

不錯。那麼，與上一季或去年同期相比，伊本·西納對第二季的貢獻如何？這對下半年有什麼影響？

Yes. So year-over-year, Ibn Sina, that's probably the easier way for me to think about it. '22 was high -- higher crude prices, higher methanol prices. We had a really healthy contribution from Ibn Sina. This year, I believe Ibn Sina going to be in that $60 million to $70 million less in contribution than last year -- for the full year. It's because our total for all of the joint ventures is about $100 million less in '23 versus '22. And that's the combination of Ibn Sina and KEPCO -- moving KEPCO to a manufacturing joint venture.

是的。所以，與去年同期來看，伊本·西納，這對我來說可能更容易理解。 2022年價格高漲－原油價格上漲，甲醇價格上漲。伊本·西納為我們貢獻了非常可觀的資金。今年，我認為伊本·西納的貢獻將比去年全年減少6000萬到7000萬美元。這是因為我們所有合資企業的總收入比2022年減少了約1億美元。這是伊本·西納和韓國電力公司合併後——將韓國電力公司轉變為製造合資企業。

Our next questions come from the line of Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

This is Ryan on for Aleksey. Just on -- my first question here is you flagged the $30 million to $35 million headwind in EM from destocking during 2Q. Now based off your commentary on the call, I presume this is something that would continue in 3Q. But is something that you could get partially back in 4Q as destocking kind of ends here?

我是 Ryan，Aleksey。我的第一個問題是，您指出了第二季新興市場去庫存化將帶來 3,000 萬到 3,500 萬美元的逆風。根據您在電話會議上的評論，我推測這種情況會在第三季持續下去。但是，隨著去庫存化階段的結束，您是否能在第四季度部分恢復這一勢頭？

Ryan, I'm sorry, you were breaking up a little bit. I believe your question, is the $35 million headwind that we had in second quarter due to destocking, would we expect to recover that in the third quarter or sometimes later. ?Was that your question?

Ryan，抱歉，你剛才有點分心了。我想你的問題是，我們第二季度因為去庫存而遭遇了3500萬美元的逆境，我們預計這筆錢會在第三季或更晚的時候恢復嗎？這是你的問題嗎？

Yes, that was it.

是的，就是這樣。

Okay. Great. I wouldn't necessarily say we expect to recover it. It's a onetime thing. Now some time in the future, do you get some benefit from restocking as we see demand come back strongly and people want to return to inventory levels, certainly. But I don't have any idea when that would be, and that's kind of a hard thing to track. I would expect third quarter destocking will be a similar level to second quarter in terms of the financial implications. So I wouldn't expect big -- further big pluses or minus, maybe a little bit more down in the third quarter because we'll have more finished goods destocking and less raw material and intermediate -- destocking, but not hugely significant. So I wouldn't expect a second to third quarter big change relative to destocking.

好的。太好了。我不一定會說我們預期會恢復。這是一次性的事。未來某個時候，隨著需求強勁回升，人們希望恢復庫存水平，補庫存是否會帶來一些好處？當然會。但我不知道具體什麼時候，而且很難追蹤。我預計第三季的去庫存情況，就財務影響而言，將與第二季持平。因此，我不會預期會有更大的正成長或負成長，第三季可能會略有下降，因為我們將有更多成品去庫存，而原料和中間產品去庫存會減少，但幅度不會很大。因此，我預計第二季到第三季的去庫存情況不會出現大幅的變化。

Understood. Got it. And then just my second question is, you flagged the delayed start up at Clear Lake due to some component defects. I understand the financial impact of it is $25 million. But are there any material costs that go along with this?

明白了。明白了。我的第二個問題是，您提到Clear Lake核電廠由於一些零件缺陷導致開工延遲。我知道這筆財務損失是2500萬美元。但這是否也牽涉到材料成本？

No. It's really the impact of not being able to get our synergies. I mean, obviously, with the lower demand profile, there is capacity in the world. So we don't anticipate a big impact there. And the cost of the site itself is covered by the manufacturer since the manufacturer is responsible for the defect.

不。真正的影響力在於無法發揮綜效。我的意思是，顯然，由於需求較低，全球各地都有產能。所以我們預計不會對那裡造成太大影響。而且，由於缺陷責任由製造商承擔，因此場地本身的成本由製造商承擔。

Our next questions come from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

So the cash generation, Scott, it looks like you've

那麼，斯科特，看起來你已經

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

pulled down CapEx for next year. Are levers as we look to '24 that you still feel like you can pull? Is there more kind of to ring out of the working capital side of things? Are there other integration costs that can maybe be pushed off? I guess, how should we be thinking about some of the puts and takes for free cash flow coming in next year?

降低了明年的資本支出。展望2024年，您覺得還有什麼可以做的事嗎？在營運資本方面，還有什麼可以做的嗎？還有其他整合成本可以延後嗎？我想，我們該如何考慮明年自由現金流的利弊？

Yes. I think we've been very open about our priority to free cash flow here in '23, John, and that doesn't change going into 2024. We put the $400 million CapEx number out for next year, that's the first step. On the inventory side of things, $400 million to $450 million reduction this year. There will likely be more opportunity going into next year just given how much raw materials have come up over the course of the last several years, which we expect kind of volumes to be at good levels as we finish this year from an inventory standpoint. But there will likely be more value opportunity as we work our way into next year to convert more working capital there.

是的。約翰，我認為我們在2023年非常公開地強調了我們對自由現金流的優先考慮，這一點在2024年也不會改變。我們公佈了明年4億美元的資本支出數字，這是第一步。庫存方面，今年將減少4億到4.5億美元。考慮到過去幾年原材料的大量增加，明年可能會有更多機會，從庫存的角度來看，我們預計今年年底原材料的產量將處於良好水平。但隨著我們努力將更多營運資本轉化為現金，明年可能會有更多價值機會。

And then continuing to focus aggressively on terms and looking for other working capital opportunities, the teams are really focused heavily on that cash side. And then when you kind of then layer in the elements of controllable EBITDA growth that Lori has mentioned several times on the call, we feel very good about the opportunity to continue to drive free cash flow going next year.

然後，我們繼續積極關注條款，並尋找其他營運資本機會，團隊真正關注的是現金方面。然後，當你考慮到Lori在電話會議上多次提到的可控EBITDA成長因素時，我們對明年繼續推動自由現金流的機會感到非常樂觀。

Got it. Okay. Fair enough. And then just a question on EM's differentiated products. Have you -- it sounds like, so far, you haven't seen much in the way of pricing pressure there. Do you expect to see any as you kind of look out over the next, whatever, call it, 12 months, just given the level of deflation that we've seen across so many industries so far?

明白了。好的。說得對。接下來我再問一個關於新興市場的差異化產品的問題。聽起來，到目前為止，您似乎還沒有看到太多的價格壓力。考慮到我們目前在許多行業都看到的通貨緊縮水平，您預計未來12個月，或者說12個月，您會看到任何價格壓力嗎？

No, John, not really. Like I said, we've seen some demand softness just based on our customers' demand softness for their products. But again, we would expect that this is temporary and that will come back. And we've not seen -- as we typically don't see a lot of pressure on pricing for our differentiated products.

不，約翰，不是真的。就像我說的，我們看到一些需求疲軟，這只是基於客戶對其產品的需求疲軟。但我們再次強調，這種情況只是暫時的，很快就會恢復。而且我們並沒有看到——因為我們通常不會看到差異化產品的定價面臨太大壓力。

Our final question will come from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·羅伯茨。

How is the Food Ingredients business performing into the deal closing? We've got some pretty broad weakness in the Food Ingredients overall market.

食品配料業務在交易完成時表現如何？食品配料市場整體上存在一些普遍的弱點。

Yes. I think our Food Ingredients is performing as expected and as we laid out at the beginning of the year. We really haven't had any issues there.

是的。我認為我們的食品配料業務表現符合預期，也符合我們年初的規劃。我們確實沒有遇到任何問題。

Yes, John, that business tends to be pretty resilient through most economic conditions.

是的，約翰，在大多數經濟條件下，該業務往往具有相當強的彈性。

And then with the recent rise in oil prices, is there any risk to the Singapore unit being curtailed later in the year if oil continues up?

那麼，隨著最近油價上漲，如果油價繼續上漲，新加坡工廠在今年稍後是否有被削減的風險？

Look, I would say no more than it ever is. I mean, we constantly flex or Singapore and our Nanjing units, depending on economics, depending on regional demand and the cost to supply those regional demand. With this level of crude pricing and coal pricing in China, I don't see that dynamic changing significantly.

聽著，我想說，情況不會比以前更糟。我的意思是，我們會根據經濟狀況、區域需求以及滿足這些區域需求的成本，不斷調整新加坡和南京工廠的產能。鑑於中國目前的原油和煤炭價格水平，我認為這種動態不會有重大變化。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Brandon Ayache for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。現在我想把發言權交還給布蘭登·阿亞什，請他作最後發言。

Thank you. We'd like to thank everyone for listening in today. As always, we're around for any follow-up questions you have. Darryl, you may now close out the call.

謝謝！感謝大家今天的收聽。像往常一樣，我們隨時準備好解答您的任何後續問題。 Darryl，現在您可以結束本次通話了。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與，祝您今天愉快。