塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2024 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，投資者關係副總裁比爾坎寧安（Bill Cunningham）。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Diego. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Operating Officer; and Chuck Kyrish, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，迭戈。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫比爾坎寧安 (Bill Cunningham)，投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk；理查森 (Scott Richardson)，營運長；以及財務長 Chuck Kyrish。

Celanese distributed its first quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

塞拉尼斯昨天下午透過 Business Wire 發布了第一季財報，並在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了準備好的評論。提醒一下，今天我們將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。今天的演示還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，可在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

With that, Diego, let's please go ahead and open it up for questions.

好了，迭戈，現在請我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

(操作員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess, Lori, just first off, just given all the various moving parts globally and so on and so forth. Maybe you can just share with us your updated view on just the macroeconomic construct globally. You (inaudible) the U.S., Europe and China in context from the previous headwinds of destocking and just weaker growth, et cetera?

我想，Lori，首先，我們要考慮到全球範圍內的各種活動部件等等。也許您可以與我們分享您對全球宏觀經濟結構的最新看法。您（聽不清楚）從之前去庫存和經濟成長放緩等方面來看，美國、歐洲和中國的情況如何？

Ghansham, look, on the macro, what I would say is, look, it's generally unchanged from what we've been saying in the past few quarters. I would say we haven't seen any big positives or negative this quarter from what we had expected. We called out last quarter, we really thought we were at the end of destocking. I think the movements this year, what we're seeing in the order book, the stability of the order book has proven that to be true.

甘沙姆，從宏觀角度來看，我想說的是，看，這與我們過去幾季所說的基本沒有變化。我想說的是，本季我們沒有看到我們預期的任何重大利好或利空。我們在上個季度曾呼籲，我們確實認為我們已處於去庫存的尾聲。我認為今年的動向、我們在訂單簿中看到的情況以及訂單簿的穩定性已經證明了這一點。

In China, specifically, I'd say, as we said last quarter, China for China is pretty steady. It's okay. It's the exports that are lagging to primarily Europe, but also other regions of the world, and we're not seeing some of the pull-through of material because of those -- that lag in exports. The U.S. remains pretty steady, I would say, across all the sectors. And Europe, although we did see a little improvement since the middle of last year, I would still say it remains lackluster and below normal levels in Europe.

具體來說，在中國，正如我們上個季度所說的那樣，中國市場相當穩定。沒關係。主要是對歐洲的出口滯後，但也對世界其他地區的出口滯後，由於這些原因，我們沒有看到一些材料的拉動——出口滯後。我想說，美國各領域都保持相當穩定。而歐洲，儘管自去年年中以來我們確實看到了一些改善，但我仍然認為歐洲的表現仍然不佳，低於正常水平。

I would also say, as we move forward, we're really not seeing some of the seasonal uplift we would have expected at the end of the first quarter and into second quarter. Overall, I'd say all the sectors are pretty steady. I think the notable sector in terms of poor demand continues to be construction, paints and coatings, et cetera. And although I do think there, we would expect as we move into the second half that we maybe start to see recovery there. I think PPG called out this quarter that they've had 11 quarters of flat to down.

我還想說，隨著時間的推移，我們實際上並沒有看到第一季末和第二季預期的季節性成長。總體而言，我認為所有行業都相當穩定。我認為需求疲軟的顯著產業仍然是建築、油漆和塗料等。儘管我確實這麼認為，但我們預計，隨著進入下半年，我們可能會開始看到復甦。我認為 PPG 本季度曾表示，他們已經經歷了 11 個季度的持平或下降。

And there in second quarter, expecting to see low single-digit growth and some further growth in second half. So we hope that's true. If so, we should see a little bit of recovery there as we moved into the second half. I mean I would characterize it much like we did even a year ago, which is we still think people are still spending. They're still spending on experiences, on travel, airlines are having a good time, but they're not spending on goods yet. It will normalize at some point, but we're not seeing that normalization yet.

預計第二季將出現低個位數成長，下半年將進一步成長。所以我們希望這是真的。如果是這樣的話，當我們進入下半年時，我們應該會看到一點復甦。我的意思是，我對它的定義與一年前類似，即我們仍然認為人們仍在消費。他們仍在體驗和旅行上花錢，航空公司也過得很愉快，但他們還沒有在商品上花錢。它會在某個時候恢復正常，但我們還沒有看到這種正常化。

That's comprehensive, Lori. And just in terms of the related question as to what would actually kickstart demand from your perspective? Would it just be as simple as interest rates being [reduced] on a global basis? And then related to that, you had called out new capacity over the last 6 months, specific to the comments on Chinese acetic acid, et cetera. Is that capacity more disruptive than you thought? Or is it just that demand was weaker than you thought initially?

這太全面了，洛瑞。就相關問題而言，從您的角度來看，什麼才能真正啟動需求？這是否只是簡單地在全球範圍內降低利率？與此相關，您曾提到過去 6 個月的新產能，具體針對中國醋酸等方面的評論。這種能力是否比你想像的更具破壞性？還是只是需求比你原先想像的弱？

Yes. Look, I think in terms of kickstarting it's really just when do people get confident in the environment again, when do we see a shift back to normalized spending on durable goods. Clearly, we could use some China -- sorry, some Europe recoveries would be really helpful. But it's nothing more than that. Like I said, consumers are spending. We just need them to start spending on durable goods again. And again, I do think that will happen in time.

是的。看，我認為就啟動而言，實際上只是人們何時才能再次對環境充滿信心，何時我們才能看到耐用品支出重新轉向正常化。顯然，我們可以利用一些中國——抱歉，一些歐洲的復甦將會非常有幫助。但僅此而已。正如我所說，消費者正在消費。我們只是需要他們再次開始在耐用品上花錢。我確實認為這會及時發生。

I think your question on China, what I would say is, I would say the new capacity has it been more disruptive than we thought, I would say, yes, because the demand for that, which was being planned to go in, has not developed. So there were some downstream consumers that were being built at the same time. They've been delayed. Obviously, they've been delayed because the demand for those products are delayed. So it is ultimately a demand answer.

我想問的是，你提到的中國新增產能是否比我們想像的更具破壞性，答案是肯定的，因為計畫投入的產能需求尚未發展。因此，一些下游消費者也正在同時建設中。他們被耽擱了。顯然，它們被推遲了，因為這些產品的需求被推遲了。所以這最終是一個需求答案。

The good news there is though we are seeing some acetic acid flowing into new applications, like [caprolactam] and others. So again, I think it's a temporary phenomenon. If you look at what's been added, even what's to come, this is not such a large number that I think we're back where we were 20 years ago. I think we -- it's just a question of demand normalizing and catching up with the supply we have now.

不過好消息是，我們看到一些乙酸流入新的應用領域，如[己內醯胺]等。所以我再次認為這只是暫時現象。如果你看看已經增加的數量，甚至是即將增加的數量，這個數字並不是很大，我認為我們回到了 20 年前的水平。我認為這只是需求正常化和趕上現有供應的問題。

And our next question comes from Mike Leithead with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

Great. I wanted to dovetail and ask about full year guidance. Lori, it seems like from your remarks just now the macro conditions are maybe still a bit uninspiring. So the bridge from sort of the $5 is funded out of the EPS in the first half to about 6 50 at the midpoint in the second half. Is that all controllable Celanese action? Or do you need the world to get a bit better from here to hit those numbers?

偉大的。我想結合實際情況詢問全年指導情況。洛瑞，從你剛才的評論來看，宏觀條件可能仍然有點令人沮喪。因此，上半年的 EPS 資金約為 5 美元，到下半年中期，該資金將達到約 6.5 美元。這些都是塞拉尼斯可控的行動嗎？或者你需要世界從現在起變得更好一點才能達到這些數字？

Thanks, Mike. I would characterize it as we will hit those numbers with just controllable actions. And if you think about it, M&M synergies are heavily loaded and compounding as we go through the year. So now that we have full visibility into the data, everything due to our S/4HANA upgrade for the M&M assets. And some -- and also the results of like the Uentrop shutdown and some of the other footprint actions we took last year, we really start to see those synergies grow and compound as we move through the year.

謝謝，麥克。我將其描述為，我們僅透過可控的行動就能達到這些數字。如果你仔細想想，你會發現，隨著時間的推移，M&M 的協同效應將不斷增強和複合。現在我們對數據有了全面的了解，這一切都歸功於我們對 M&M 資產的 S/4HANA 升級。還有一些——以及像 Uentrop 關閉和我們去年採取的一些其他足跡行動的結果，我們真正開始看到這些協同效應隨著時間的推移而增長和復合。

So that's a major impact. The Clear Lake expansion, while we did have a little bit of help in the first quarter from that, that will also continue to grow as we move through the year. Debt service is another one, which is more heavily loaded into the second half of the year. And I would also say our turnaround costs in the first half is about double what it's going to be in the second half. So we get some tailwind there as well. So I would say everything we know now says we're well in that range, just based on what we know. We've not really built in any recovery other than the end of destocking, as we've said before. So I think we -- I feel very -- still feel very confident that we will be within that range for full year.

所以這會產生重大影響。清湖擴建計畫雖然在第一季為我們帶來了一些幫助，但隨著時間的推移，該計畫的幫助也將繼續成長。另一項是債務償還，下半年的負擔會更加沉重。我還要說的是，我們上半年的周轉成本大約是下半年的兩倍。因此我們在那裡也得到了一些順風。因此我想說，我們現在所知道的一切都表明，我們完全處於這個範圍內，這僅基於我們已知的資訊。正如我們之前所說的，除了去庫存的結束，我們並沒有真正實現任何復甦。因此我認為，我們仍然非常有信心，全年我們都將保持在這一水平。

Great. So that's helpful. And just as a follow-up question on Engineered Materials. I think in the prepared remarks, you talked about continued pricing pressure. I was hoping you could unpack that somewhat. Just where exactly are you seeing the most pricing pressure today? And was that a nylon specific comment or more broad based across the portfolio?

偉大的。這很有幫助。這只是關於工程材料的後續問題。我認為在準備好的評論中您談到了持續的價格壓力。我希望您能稍微解釋一下這個問題。您目前看到的最大定價壓力究竟在哪裡？這是針對尼龍的評論還是對整個投資組合的廣泛評論？

I would talk -- think about that, Mike, in terms of -- it's really continued from what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year. Really no significant changes there. Raws have come down as well. And we've been really mismatched here in Engineered Materials for more than a year on where kind of pricing for standard grade materials was versus the cost structure. And as you saw with some of the margin expansion we alluded to in the prepared comments, we're definitely catching up there. But we're not seeing a lot of ability to move pricing here in those spaces. So the team is focused, however, really around continuing to move the pipeline and work on upgrade of mix as we work our way through this year and then into 2025 to address that.

我想說——想想看，麥克，從這一點來看——這實際上是我們去年第四季所看到的情況的延續。那裡確實沒有什麼重大變化。 Raw 也已下降。一年多來，我們在工程材料領域標準級材料的定價與成本結構方面一直存在差距。正如您在我們準備好的評論中提到的一些利潤率擴大一樣，我們肯定正在迎頭趕上。但我們並沒有看到這些領域有太多改變定價的能力。因此，團隊的重點實際上是繼續推進管道和混合物的升級，我們將在今年以及 2025 年解決這個問題。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

When you look at your Engineered Materials volumes year-on-year, they're down 12%. Maybe global auto production is down 1%. And when you look at the demand for the coatings companies, maybe it's down low single digits. Why is Engineered Materials have a larger volume decrement.

如果查看工程材料產量年比變化情況，會發現下降了 12%。全球汽車產量可能下降了 1%。當您查看塗料公司的需求時，可能會發現其需求下降了個位數。為什麼工程材料的體積衰減較大。

Yes, Jeff, I would really point to some of the real standard spaces we participated in last year, really to start moving some of the inventory levels that we had as we finished 2022. And that's really more of the driver than anything else. We also saw a little more seasonality in the medical sector here this year versus what we saw last year. So those are the main drivers.

是的，傑夫，我真的想指出我們去年參與的一些真正的標準空間，這些空間確實開始改變我們在 2022 年結束時的一些庫存水平。與去年相比，今年醫療產業的季節性特徵更加明顯。這些就是主要的驅動因素。

Okay. And then sort of the reverse is the Acetyl Chain, where volumes are up year-on-year, 11%. And I take it that what you want to do is run your Clear Lake expansion more or less full out? Is that part of the reason why volumes are up? And do you expect as a base case for your volumes to be up 10% or more this year? And maybe could you comment on filter tow in that we saw really strong numbers out of Eastman, but your Acetyl Chain doesn't seem to be growing its adjusted EBIT very much.

好的。乙醯鏈的情況正好相反，其產量比去年同期增加了 11%。我認為您想要做的是或多或少全面地運行 Clear Lake 擴建項目？這是銷量上升的原因之一嗎？您預計今年的銷量基本上會成長 10% 或更多嗎？也許您可以對過濾絲束發表評論，我們看到伊士曼的業績非常強勁，但您的乙醯基鏈的調整後息稅前利潤似乎並沒有太大增長。

Jeff, maybe -- let me just make a few comments, and then I'll let Scott add more detail. I mean, what I would say is we don't have a strategy to run at still necessarily at higher volume. The justification for the Clear Lake expansion was really in productivity, right, energy, catalyst, shipping by shipping more out of the U.S., less out of Asia. So that's not the strategy. Now having said that, we will run all of our assets where it makes sense from a demand standpoint and from an economic standpoint. So I wouldn't say that's the biggest factor there.

傑夫，也許——讓我先發表幾點評論，然後我會讓斯科特補充更多細節。我的意思是，我想說的是，我們沒有一個必然以更高產量運作的策略。清湖擴建的理由其實是為了提高生產力、對吧、能源、催化劑和運輸量，增加美國以外的運輸量，減少亞洲以外的運輸量。所以這不是策略。話雖如此，我們將從需求和經濟角度合理地經營我們所有的資產。所以我不會說這是最大的因素。

What I'd say on tow is we did see a significant uplift in tow this year. That uplift is continuing into this year. And if you look at our first quarter volumes, I think some people have called out more seasonality. We really saw first quarter within the typical seasonality for tow, which is minor, we're talking 1% or 2%. So I think we're seeing that -- I would suggest to you we're seeing -- enjoying the same markets for tow that our competitors are. But of course, it is now in our Acetyl Chain, and we have more decision points that we can make around it to really maximize the value of the chain.

關於拖車，我想說的是，今年我們確實看到拖車量顯著提升。這種上漲勢頭一直持續到今年。如果你看我們第一季的銷量，我認為有些人已經指出了更多的季節性因素。我們確實看到第一季處於拖車的典型季節性範圍內，這個變化很小，我們說的是 1% 或 2%。所以我認為我們看到——我想向你們建議我們看到——與我們的競爭對手共享相同的拖車市場。但當然，它現在在我們的乙醯鏈中，我們可以圍繞它做出更多的決策點，以真正最大化鏈的價值。

Yes. Let me just add. I think as Lori said, on tow, 2024, very similar to 2023, not a continued lift, very stable there. When you look at a year-over-year basis, Q1 to Q1, Jeff, the main driver volumetrically is really just where the industry is. If you recall where we were in the first quarter of last year, we were coming off very high energy prices in Europe in the fourth quarter of 2022. European demand was relatively soft. In addition, we were still seeing China dealing with COVID in the early part of the years, which impacted volumes. So that's really the main driver on a quarter-over-quarter basis here in the acetyl business.

是的。讓我補充一下。我認為，正如 Lori 所說，2024 年與 2023 年非常相似，不會持續上漲，非常穩定。傑夫，當你查看同比第一季的數據時，從數量上看，主要的驅動因素實際上就是行業現狀。如果你還記得去年第一季的情況，2022 年第四季歐洲的能源價格非常高。此外，我們看到中國在年初仍在應對新冠疫情，這對銷量產生了影響。因此，這實際上是乙醯基業務季度環比成長的主要驅動力。

And our next question comes from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可·西森。

Nice start to the year. For 2Q, will EM volumes (inaudible) I guess it still looks like it's going to be down year-over-year. But the third and fourth quarter for EM, do you need volumes to improve year-over-year to sort of hit the outlook and -- how much, if at all?

今年的開始很好。對於第二季度，新興市場的銷量（聽不清楚）我猜看起來仍然會比去年同期下降。但是對於新興市場的第三季和第四季，是否需要銷售量年增才能達到預期目標？

I think as we work into Q2, my volumes will move up a little over where they were in Q1. On a year-over-year basis, relatively flattish. Any differences are more mix related, as I talked about earlier, with kind of where we were on moving nylon last year to really get our inventory levels down. And we will see an expectation that volumes move up, really driven by 2 things in the second half. One, just as destocking has ended and that kind of normal flow through, not a real significant restocking or anything, but just slightly higher levels of volume coming from that in the second half.

我認為隨著我們進入第二季度，我的交易量將比第一季略有上升。與去年同期相比，相對持平。正如我之前提到的，任何差異都更多地與組合有關，去年我們運輸尼龍的情況確實降低了我們的庫存水平。我們預計下半年銷售量會上升，這主要是由兩件事推動的。首先，由於去庫存階段已經結束，並且出現了正常的流通，因此並不是真正意義上的大規模補貨，而只是下半年的成交量略有增加。

But more importantly, really a commercialization of our pipeline. And we went really to an integrated commercial model in Engineered Materials in April of last year. The average length of time projects in our pipeline takes is about 18 months. So we expect kind of the efforts the commercial team has been putting in now for the last year really to start to take hold and see the value coming towards the end of this year from that.

但更重要的是，我們的管道真正實現了商業化。去年四月，我們在工程材料領域真正實現了綜合商業模式。我們正在籌備的專案平均耗時約 18 個月。因此，我們預計商業團隊在過去一年中付出的努力將真正開始發揮作用，並在今年年底看到其帶來的價值。

And then more of -- a little bit of a longer-term question. Sales in EM running about $6 billion, maybe a little bit better than that. But longer term, when demand does recover, China, goods, et cetera, does this a $7 billion business? And what would the operating leverage [trying to get] volume come back look like on that growth?

然後還有更多——一個比較長期的問題。新興市場的銷售額約為 60 億美元，可能比這還要好一點。但從長遠來看，當需求確實復甦時，中國、商品等等，這會是一筆價值 70 億美元的生意嗎？那麼，在這種成長背景下，（試圖獲得）銷售回升的經營槓桿會是什麼樣子呢？

Yes. Look, I don't know the exact number where that could end up. I mean the way I would characterize it is we expect over the next year or so that EM basically starts contributing at the same level as acetyls from a margin standpoint. And then after that, while acetyls will continue to grow at kind of GDP, GDP plus a little bit, we would expect margin growth for EM to still be in that roughly 10% range that we've had in the past. So I would think about it that way. So ultimately, there's no like in number. The number continues to grow, but that's the growth rate we expect.

是的。瞧，我不知道最終的確切數字是多少。我的意思是，我對其的描述是，我們預計在未來一年左右，從利潤率的角度來看，EM 基本上會開始與乙醯基達到相同的貢獻水平。在此之後，雖然乙醯基將繼續以 GDP 的速度成長，比 GDP 略有增加，但我們預計 EM 的利潤率成長仍將維持在過去的 10% 左右的範圍內。所以我會這樣想。所以最終，數字上是沒有相似的。這個數字還在持續成長，但這是我們預期的成長率。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Starting to read a bit that some of the trade complexities in the Red Sea area are starting to resolve themselves. And so I guess, one, would you agree with that? And two, if the case and if the shipping channels become a little less challenged, how would that impact your businesses, good, bad or indifferent?

開始讀到一些報導紅海地區的一些貿易複雜問題正開始自行解決。所以我想，首先，你會同意這一點嗎？第二，如果確實如此，而運輸管道面臨的挑戰稍微減少一些，這會對您的業務產生什麼影響，是好是壞，還是無所謂？

Vincent, thank you. Look, I would say we've been pretty indifferent so far. What we found is shipping channels and stuff where there can be a temporary disruption pretty quickly, renormalize in a new way. So I -- we haven't really seen an impact so far. And similarly, I wouldn't expect a big impact if we see some of the issues resolved. I think the market is pretty quick to correct itself.

文森特，謝謝你。聽著，我想說我們迄今為止一直都相當冷漠。我們發現，運輸管道和其他設施可能很快就會出現暫時中斷，但會以新的方式重新正常化。所以—到目前為止我們還沒有真正看到影響。同樣，如果一些問題得到解決，我預計不會產生太大的影響。我認為市場自我修正的速度很快。

Okay. And then if I could just ask a follow-up on the nylon business. In the prepared remarks, there was a comment about higher variable costs for higher velocity products. That's quite a mouthful. Could you just unpack that for me?

好的。然後我可以問一下關於尼龍業務的後續問題嗎？在準備好的評論中，有一則評論涉及更高速度產品的更高變動成本。這話真夠拗口的。你能幫我解開它嗎？

Yes, Vincent, it's really related more to the Palm business, and it's really the flow-through of methanol since we weren't producing as much of our own methanol in the first quarter. It's the flow-through of that higher cost product into Palm that gets sold here in the second quarter. That's really the main impact.

是的，文森特，這實際上與 Palm 業務更相關，而且這實際上是甲醇的流通，因為我們在第一季生產的甲醇並不多。這些成本較高的產品流入 Palm，並於第二季在這裡銷售。這確實才是主要的影響。

And our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

This is James Cannon, on for Josh. You in your prepared remarks talked about the price-to-cost benefit in the first half. Are you expecting much flow through into the second half? Or does lower pricing kind of erode that?

我是詹姆斯·坎農，代替喬許。您在準備好的發言中談到了上半年的價格成本效益。您預計下半年會有大量流量嗎？或者較低的定價是否會削弱這一點？

I wouldn't expect lower pricing to erode that, James. A lot will depend upon what happens with the raw material complex. We kind of know for the first half, what the flow-through of that is going to be. So a lot just depends upon how raws develop in the second half to see how much of that continues or not.

詹姆斯，我認為較低的價格不會削弱這一點。很大程度取決於原材料綜合體的情況。我們對上半場的流程大概是怎樣的有所了解。所以，這很大程度上取決於下半場原始情況如何發展，看看這種情況會持續多久。

Okay. So just as a follow-up to that. I think if I look back -- if I look back a quarter or two, you gave in your prepared remarks, comments on price/cost being potentially the highest part of the year-over-year bridge. Is that still possible? Or just given where we stand, is that maybe a little bit more in question?

好的。因此，這只是對此的後續行動。我想如果我回顧一下——如果我回顧一下一兩個季度，你就會在準備好的評論中提到價格/成本可能是同比變化中最高的部分。這還可能嗎？或者僅考慮到我們的立場，這個問題可能還有點疑問？

It's definitely still possible based on what we're seeing for the first half. And then again, we'll just have to see how raws develop in the middle part of the year to see what then gets expensed towards the back half of the year.

根據我們對上半年的觀察，這肯定仍然是可能的。我們只要觀察今年年中原料的走勢，就能知道下半年的費用是多少。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

In your prepared remarks, you talked about 2 key synergy drivers for Engineered Materials, namely the shutdown of nylon 66 in Germany and the SAP ramp. Can you address those and maybe translate it to how much earnings uplift you might be anticipating in the second quarter through the fourth quarter. It didn't sound like there was much in the first quarter from those items.

在您準備好的發言中，您談到了工程材料的兩個關鍵協同驅動因素，即德國尼龍 66 的停產和 SAP 的生產成長。您能否解決這些問題並將其轉化為您預計第二季至第四季的獲利成長幅度？聽起來這些項目在第一季並沒有帶來太多收益。

Yes. Look, I would characterize it as for the footprint actions we've taken, and there's been a number of smaller actions that we've taken as well, not including Mechelen, which we've just announced because that will really show up in next year's number. We expect about a $50 million synergy lift on a full year basis from those. And you're right. I mean we're just now starting to see the benefit of Uentrop, which is the biggest piece of that. So there's that.

是的。你看，我會把它描述為我們已採取的足跡行動，而且我們還採取了一些較小的行動，其中不包括我們剛剛宣布的梅赫倫行動，因為這將在明年的數字中真正體現出來。我們預計全年綜效將帶來約 5,000 萬美元的提升。你說得對。我的意思是我們現在才開始看到 Uentrop 的好處，這是其中最大的部分。就是這樣。

And then I would say on the SAP, the direct impact. I mean, obviously, we get rid of the TSA, but we've had to add our own people. So that's a smaller number than you might think, although significant. The real benefit is that we now have one view of the data, and we have everything in one system, and it is really helping us with our planning and scheduling and forecasting of demand in Engineered Materials. And so again, we're -- all of that kind of gets rolled into our synergy number, and that number for the full year is 150 lift from last year.

然後我想說 SAP 的直接影響。我的意思是，顯然我們擺脫了 TSA，但我們必須增加自己的人員。因此，儘管這個數字很重要，但它比你想像的要小。真正的好處是，我們現在對資料有一個視圖，我們將所有內容放在一個系統中，它確實幫助我們進行工程材料需求的規劃、調度和預測。所以，我們 — — 所有這些都被計入我們的協同數字中，全年的數字比去年增加了 150 個。

And then secondly, for Chuck, perhaps, can you talk about how your free cash flow outlook has evolved? And specifically, I'm interested in any guidance you might be able to provide on cash taxes or the expectation therefore, in 2024. It sounded like maybe there's some timing issues around taxes we should be thinking about.

其次，對查克來說，您能談談您的自由現金流前景是如何演變的嗎？具體來說，我對您能提供的 2024 年現金稅或預期稅的任何指導很感興趣。

Yes. Good question, Kevin. Yes, let me walk through how we're thinking about '24 cash flow. I would say we do expect the same cadence as we saw last year where our cash flow will be second half weighted. Teams are working hard to generate a total result for the year that's roughly consistent with last year. It will be subject to a few timing elements, of course. Outside of EBITDA growth, I would point to these drivers. We are working really hard to produce a working capital benefit to free cash flow this year. And that would be driven by further inventory reductions.

是的。好問題，凱文。是的，讓我來講一下我們對 24 年現金流的看法。我想說，我們確實預計我們的現金流將呈現與去年相同的節奏，即下半年加權。各團隊正在努力工作，以取得與去年大致相同的年度總成績。當然，這會受到一些時間因素的影響。除了 EBITDA 成長之外，我還想指出這些驅動因素。我們正努力實現今年營運資本效益到自由現金流的轉變。這將受到進一步庫存減少的推動。

Right now, we've assumed $100 million working capital benefit for the year. And it will depend on a few factors. I would say working capital, though it will be back-end loaded. It should be a use in the first half, particularly as we're preparing for some of these footprint actions and then a source in the second half. Either way, I would point out, that's a significant headwind to free cash flow versus 2023 as we had a tremendous year in working capital benefit to free cash flow last year, that was really driven by about $400 million positive cash from reducing our inventory. So I just wanted to point that out.

目前，我們假設今年的營運資金收益為 1 億美元。這取決於一些因素。我想說的是營運資金，儘管它將是後端加載的。它應該是上半部的一個用途，特別是當我們為這些足跡行動做準備時，然後是下半部的一個來源。無論如何，我想指出的是，與 2023 年相比，這對自由現金流來說是一個重大阻力，因為去年我們的營運資本對自由現金流的收益巨大，這實際上是由減少庫存產生的約 4 億美元的正現金推動的。所以我只是想指出這一點。

You're right, cash tax, it is an unusual year for us for cash taxes. In total, this year, there'll be about $300 million. That's higher year-over-year by $75 million. One unusual item that we have that will hit us in the second quarter, we're going to pay almost all of a roughly $90 million transfer tax that's related to the previously announced debt redomiciliation projects that are currently in execution phase and are key to our cash repatriation plans. We'll pay this onetime tax in the second quarter, but we would expect to be able to recoup that tax in future years and through the associated foreign tax credits. It is a big payment here in the first half, so I did want to call that out. I mean if you think about cash tax of the $300 million, 3/4 of that will be in the first half.

你說得對，現金稅，今年對我們來說是不尋常的一年。今年總計將達到約 3 億美元。這比去年同期高出了 7,500 萬美元。我們在第二季度遇到的一個不尋常的情況是，我們將支付幾乎全部約 9000 萬美元的轉讓稅，這筆稅款與之前宣布的債務遷移項目有關，該項目目前處於執行階段，是我們現金遣返計劃的關鍵。我們將在第二季繳納這筆一次性稅款，但我們預計能夠在未來幾年透過相關的外國稅收抵免收回這筆稅款。這是上半年的一筆大支出，所以我確實想指出這一點。我的意思是，如果你考慮 3 億美元的現金稅，其中的 3/4 將是在上半年。

I would say cash cost of synergies should be $100 million to $150 million this year. That's higher year-over-year by $25 million to $75 million, which will just kind of depend on what that final number ends up being and the timing of some of those actions. Positive offsets to free cash flow this year, year-over-year, lower cash interest by about $50 million and a benefit of $100 million to $150 million in lower CapEx versus last year. So I hope that helps in terms of some of the drivers and how we're thinking and especially the timing associated with those.

我認為今年協同效應的現金成本應該在 1 億至 1.5 億美元之間。這比去年同期高出 2500 萬美元至 7500 萬美元，這將取決於最終數字以及其中一些行動的時機。與去年相比，今年的自由現金流出現了正向抵消，現金利息降低了約 5,000 萬美元，資本支出也比去年降低了 1 億至 1.5 億美元。所以我希望這能對一些驅動因素以及我們的思考方式，特別是與這些因素相關的時間安排有所幫助。

And our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Now that Clear Lake is up and running, is rationalization of your acetyls assets firmly off the table? Or is that an option to be considered because of this tough supply-demand environment?

現在 Clear Lake 已開始運營，你們是否絕對不可能再對乙醯資產進行合理化調整了？或者說，由於供需環境嚴峻，這是一個值得考慮的選擇？

Aleksey, thank you. I would say we're pretty satisfied with where we are with our footprint for acetyls. I mean, everything we have is specifically designed to serve a certain region and set of customers, and we like having the optionality and flexibility that we have. We've also continued to build out our downstream. You saw the announcement about new VAE in China, some of the RDP debottlenecks we're doing. And that really is all about how do we continue to build the foundational level of earnings in acetyls and really kind of stabilize our earnings from acetyls.

阿列克謝，謝謝你。我想說，我們對乙醯基的足跡目前的情況非常滿意。我的意思是，我們所擁有的一切都是專門為服務特定地區和客戶群體而設計的，我們喜歡擁有可選性和靈活性。我們也繼續建造我們的下游業務。您看到了有關中國新 VAE 的公告，以及我們正在進行的一些 RDP 瓶頸消除工作。這實際上是關於我們如何繼續建立乙醯基收益水平並真正穩定乙醯基收益。

But if you look at just specifically at acetic acid, for example, Clear Lake, clearly, we believe the lowest cost, lowest carbon footprint, really important to meet our needs in the U.S. and now into Europe. China really serves China, again, because of our technology there, we believe, one of the lowest cost producers in China. And then Singapore meets the need for the rest of Asia, particularly India and some other areas, and is still very competitive with other sources of supply into that region. So again, I would say we're always looking at our footprint. What we need to add, if there's opportunities to debottleneck, but also opportunities to rationalize. But right now, I would say our footprint is pretty good for purpose.

但如果只具體看一下乙酸，例如 Clear Lake，顯然我們認為最低的成本、最低的碳足跡對於滿足我們在美國以及現在的歐洲的需求非常重要。再次強調，由於我們的技術，中國確實為中國服務，我們相信，我們是中國成本最低的生產商之一。新加坡滿足了亞洲其他地區，特別是印度和其他一些地區的需求，並且與該地區的其他供應來源相比仍然非常具有競爭力。所以我想說，我們一直在關注我們的足跡。我們需要補充的是，如果有機會消除瓶頸，那麼也有機會合理化。但現在，我想說我們的足跡已經相當不錯了。

And as a follow-up, you used to be fairly transparent to investors to see outgrowth in Engineered Materials versus end markets. It's been harder to judge through the last few quarters. Are there any metrics such as wins, I don't know, your size of your pipeline that you can point us to, to kind of demonstrate that you keep outperforming your end markets or that outperformance will resume perhaps in future periods?

作為後續問題，您過去一直相當透明地向投資者展示工程材料與終端市場的成長情況。從過去幾季來看，判斷起來更加困難。您能否指出一些指標，例如勝利次數、管道規模等，以證明您的表現繼續超越終端市場，或者在未來一段時間內可能恢復超越？

Look, I would say the pipeline is our winning factor, if you will, for Engineered Materials and what has allowed us to outperform in our sector. I think that continues to be true, especially now that we're 1 year since we went into a common system for both our heritage assets as well as our acquisition of M&M. And we do continue to look at it very closely. I will tell you the number of projects being generated is consistent. More importantly, the value of the projects that are being generated is very strong.

看起來，我想說，對於工程材料而言，管道是我們成功的因素，也是讓我們在業界表現優異的原因。我認為情況仍然如此，特別是現在我們已經為我們的遺產資產和對M＆M的收購建立了一個共同的系統一年了。我們確實會繼續密切關注此事。我會告訴你正在產生的項目數量是一致的。更重要的是，正在產生的項目的價值非常強大。

But maybe I'll ask Scott if he has any more details on that he wants to add.

但也許我會問斯科特他是否還有更多想要補充的細節。

Yes. I mean we gave a stat last quarter about the fact that we created about 20% more revenue opportunity per sales employee in the second half of last year compared to what we did in the second half of '22. And so that is, I think, a really good proof point to how things are moving. The only other thing I'd add is we've been doing a lot of really cleaning up of this new kind of integrated business over the course of the last 18 months. And that will start to stabilize as we get the footprint actions in place and really get our inventories now kind of back in line with where they need to be. So I think it will be a little more visible, Aleksey, as we get into the end of this year and into the next year as to being able to see that outperformance versus the various end markets.

是的。我的意思是，我們上個季度給出了一個統計數據，與 2022 年下半年相比，去年下半年我們每個銷售員工創造的收入機會增加了約 20%。所以，我認為，這確實是一個很好的證據，可以證明事態正在發展。我還要補充的是，在過去 18 個月裡，我們一直在對這種新型綜合業務進行大量清理工作。隨著我們採取足跡行動並真正使我們的庫存回到應有的水平，這種情況將開始穩定下來。因此，阿列克謝，我認為，隨著我們進入今年年底和明年，我們將能夠更加明顯地看到其相對於各個終端市場的優異表現。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess first off, just curious about your comments around volume. It sounded like the activity in Q1 was seemingly getting slightly better in the -- in the earlier part of the quarter and then maybe it sold out in March. And then are you seeing a similar pattern here of things may be getting better in April? I mean how would you kind of characterize Q2 thus far versus your comments and then what you saw in Q1?

我想首先，我只是好奇你關於音量的評論。聽起來第一季的活動似乎在本季初略有好轉，然後可能在 3 月就銷售一空了。那麼，您是否看到類似的模式，即四月情況可能會好轉？我的意思是，到目前為止，您如何描述 Q2 與您在第一季看到的情況相比？

Yes. Look, I would say from a volume standpoint, both for acetic acid and EM, it was very much as expected in Q1 throughout the quarter.

是的。從產量角度來看，無論是乙酸還是 EM，整個第一季的產量都與預期非常一致。

And then as we look to Q2, the order book is in line with the guide we put together right now, Arun. I mean we're through the month of April, and we have good visibility here to May. So I think we feel comfortable with the comments we put in our prepared comments.

然後，當我們展望第二季度時，訂單量與我們目前製定的指南一致，阿倫。我的意思是我們已經度過了四月，並且對五月有很好的期望。因此我認為我們對在準備好的評論中提出的評論感到滿意。

Okay. And then just a question about the second half and as you look into '25. So it looks like you'll be ending the year on a, say, $6.60 rate for EPS for the second half. If you were to annualize that maybe you're $13.25 or so. If you add some volume and maybe some deleveraging on top of that, it seems like you could get close to $14. So is that kind of how you're thinking about '25? I know it's a ways off, but just maybe got some -- wanted to get your initial thoughts.

好的。然後只是一個關於下半場以及當你回顧'25時的問題。因此看起來，今年下半年的每股盈餘將達到 6.60 美元。如果以年率計算，大概是 13.25 美元左右。如果你增加一些交易量，也許在此基礎上進行一些去槓桿，那麼似乎可以接近 14 美元。那麼這就是您對 25 年的想法嗎？我知道這還有很長的路要走，但也許有一些——想聽聽你的初步想法。

Yes. Look, we've had so much variability in the last few years. I hesitate to go much further out than a quarter these days. But look, I think if you look at the run rate in the second half because it's built on controllable actions, not built on market that not an unreasonable place to start as you start thinking about '25.

是的。你看，過去幾年我們經歷了太多的變化。這些天來，我猶豫著是否要走得更遠一點。但看，我認為如果你看看下半年的運行率，因為它是建立在可控行動之上，而不是建立在市場之上，當你開始思考'25時，這並不是一個不合理的起點。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, there was a competitor outage in acetyl starting, I think, late, late February. I believe it's still on allocation of VAM and acid. Did you benefit? And are you still benefiting from that competitor situation?

洛瑞，我想，從二月底開始，競爭對手的乙醯基產品就出現停產現象了。我相信這仍然取決於 VAM 和酸的分配。你有受益嗎？您是否仍從競爭對手的處境中獲益？

I would say while there was some temporary run-up in pricing, it was pretty small and fairly short lived. So I would not say we're seeing any benefit from it continuing, and the benefit was pretty small during the quarter. And I think that just is reflective of really the lower demand that we've been seeing globally that an outage of that magnitude really didn't move the market very much. And again, I think it's not as much question on supply, but just demand is really still not back at normalized levels, particularly even in the Western Hemisphere.

我想說的是，雖然價格出現了暫時上漲，但幅度很小，而且持續時間較短。因此，我不會說我們看到了它繼續下去的任何好處，而且本季的好處非常小。我認為這實際上反映了我們在全球範圍內看到的較低需求，如此大規模的停電實際上並沒有對市場造成太大影響。而且，我認為這並不是什麼供應問題，而是需求實際上仍未恢復到正常水平，特別是在西半球。

Understood. And just on M&M synergies, what were they in Q1? What will they be in Q2? And what should be the cadence in the back half of the year?

明白了。就 M&M 綜效而言，第一季的情況如何？它們在第二季將會是什麼？那麼下半年的節奏又該如何呢？

I don't have an exact number here in front of me. I mean I would tell you, Q1 is definitely the lightest and they continue to build and compound as we move through the year.

我面前並沒有一個確切的數字。我的意思是，我會告訴你，第一季肯定是最輕的，而且隨著時間的推移，它們會繼續建造和復合。

Our next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

So I guess the first one is on raw materials. So I believe for EM, you were expecting as much as $150 million benefit as kind of lower costs rolled through the system. It looks like you got -- you're going to have 20 in the second quarter, and it's comparable to what you saw maybe in the first. So is that still or reasonable outlook just based on where raws are right now that you could see $100 million, $110 million of benefit in the back half of the year? Or have things gotten better or worse? I guess, can you help us to think about that?

所以我猜第一個問題是關於原料。因此我相信，對於 EM 而言，隨著系統成本的降低，您預計將獲得高達 1.5 億美元的收益。看起來你在第二季會得到 20 分，這與你在第一季看到的情況相當。那麼，僅根據目前原料的情況，這種前景是否仍然合理，即您可以在今年下半年看到 1 億美元、1.1 億美元的收益？或者情況變得更好了還是更糟了？我想，您能幫我們思考一下這個問題嗎？

Yes, John, as I said earlier, definitely in line to be in that range based upon what we're seeing for the first half. And again, a lot just depends upon what -- how things move in the middle part of the year to see how our cost structure will develop as we get into the second half.

是的，約翰，正如我之前所說，根據我們對上半年的觀察，肯定處於這個範圍內。再說一遍，很多事情都取決於年中的情況如何發展，看看進入下半年我們的成本結構將如何發展。

Okay. And then I guess the second question would just be in the Acetyl Chain business. Obviously, there's some new capacity in the markets beyond just yours that are impacting the business. It looks like there's more capacity coming on next year potentially as well. So I guess, if we don't see much of an improvement in the overall demand environment, are there other levers that you can pull in your Acetyl Chain business to drive incremental profitability? Or are we at a point now where it's really going to be about the market improving and developing from a demand perspective?

好的。然後我想第二個問題就跟乙醯鏈業務有關。顯然，除了你們市場之外，還有其他市場的一些新產能對你們的業務產生影響。看起來明年也可能會有更多的產能。因此，我想，如果我們沒有看到整體需求環境有太大改善，您是否可以利用其他槓桿來推動乙醯鏈業務的增量獲利能力？或者我們現在正處於從需求角度真正改善和發展市場的關鍵階段？

Yes. So let me make a few comments on that, John. If we look at this year, there were two large, I'd say, world-scale capacities added in acetic acid in China. And again, the impact of those has been a bit more than we thought because some of the companion downstream consumers that were supposed to come on at the same time have been delayed due to the overall demand in the market. Next year, there's really only one small unit coming on that we're aware of in acetic acid, some other capacity a little bit in [VAM]. It's not enough that it should have a major impact.

是的。所以，約翰，讓我對此發表一些評論。如果我們回顧今年，我會說中國新增了兩個世界級的醋酸產能。而且，這些影響比我們想像的還要大一些，因為一些原本應該同時上市的下游消費者因為市場整體需求而被延後了。明年，據我們所知，只有一座小型裝置投產，生產乙酸，[VAM] 還有一些其他產能。僅僅產生重大影響是不夠的。

But we're still not at the [whim] of the market. I mean we still find opportunities to use both our global and our chain flexibility to really maximize our earnings in this market and try to maintain that level of foundational earnings. I'd say the other good opportunity, which is developing for us is our ability now to provide sustainable products into the market based upon the CCU project that we've put in at Clear Lake. Now that we have our ISCC certification for methanol as low carbon material, we're able to offer that to all of our customers in kind of whatever acetic acid products they desire, and we are seeing a lot of interest in that.

但我們仍然沒有滿足市場的需要。我的意思是，我們仍在尋找機會利用我們的全球和連鎖靈活性來真正最大化我們在這個市場的收益，並努力保持這一基礎收益水準。我想說，我們正在發展的另一個好機會是，我們現在能夠根據我們在 Clear Lake 實施的 CCU 專案向市場提供永續產品。現在，我們已經獲得了甲醇作為低碳材料的 ISCC 認證，我們能夠向所有客戶提供他們所需的任何乙酸產品，並且我們看到了對此的濃厚興趣。

We also have a sustainability advantage for VAE, which customers are interested in for kind of its low odor, low VOC emissions. So I think there are some opportunities we have that are unique to us that others do not currently have at this period in time. And we see that demand starting to grow and hope that will become a more significant part of our portfolio.

VAE 還具有永續優勢，客戶對其低氣味、低 VOC 排放的特性感興趣。因此，我認為我們擁有一些獨特的機會，而其他人在當前時期還沒有這種機會。我們看到需求開始成長，並希望它將成為我們投資組合中更重要的一部分。

Our next question comes from John Roberts with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

It sounded like the sequential change in EM earnings was nylon up sequentially and other plastic earnings down sequentially. Was the decline in the -- sequential decline in the other plastics due to the downturn or price pressure or what drove that?

聽起來新興市場的收益連續變化是尼龍收益連續上升而其他塑膠收益連續下降。其他塑膠產量連續下降是由於經濟衰退或價格壓力造成的，還是其他原因造成的？

I would focus on the turnaround costs, John. I mean that was really the largest driver is really offsetting the nylon.

我會專注於週轉成本，約翰。我的意思是，這確實是抵消尼龍的最大驅動力。

And then I wasn't thinking that medical was that seasonal? What's driving the seasonality in medical?

然後我就沒想過醫療是有季節性的嗎？哪些因素影響了醫療產業的季節性？

It's -- honestly, John, it's kind of what we always see. In some years, it's more acute than others, and we saw it come down a little more than what we saw last year from Q4 into Q1. And it's really just the timing of how our customers build inventory for the new year. And it -- Q4 ends up usually being one of our strongest quarters and Q1 tends to be weaker, which kind of goes counter to how everything else moves, but that's kind of been the historical seasonality really in most of our medical business.

這 — — 說實話，約翰，這有點像我們經常看到的。有些年份，這種情況比其他年份更為嚴重，而且我們發現，從第四季度到第一季度，這種情況比去年同期有所下降。這其實只是我們的客戶為新年建立庫存的時機。而且 — — 第四季通常是我們表現最強勁的季度之一，而第一季往往表現較弱，這與其他一切的走勢相反，但這實際上是我們大多數醫療業務的歷史季節性。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

This is Dan Rizzo, on for Laurence. We talked a lot about the Clear Lake expansion. I was wondering if an expansion in Singapore or some place like that would be necessary given the growth that's potentially there in India over the next, I don't know, few years to a decade.

這是丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo)，代替勞倫斯。我們多次討論清湖擴建工程。我想知道，考慮到印度在未來幾年到十年內的潛在成長，是否有必要在新加坡或類似的地方擴張。

Yes. We don't see that on horizon. It probably wouldn't -- if there were more of an increase in demand, it probably wouldn't necessarily make sense to expand the Singapore plant. But for what we have right now and for that developing market in India, Singapore is [sufficient]. And we have options to bring material into Singapore from other parts of the world, should we see that demand increase.

是的。我們還沒看到這一幕。可能不會——如果需求進一步增加，擴建新加坡工廠可能就沒有什麼意義了。但就我們目前的情況以及印度發展中市場而言，新加坡已經足夠了。如果需求增加，我們可以選擇從世界其他地方將材料運送到新加坡。

Dan, the only thing I'd add is on a downstream basis, the VAE expansion that we've just done is as much for growth in Southeast Asia and India as it is for China, honestly. We have a -- we already have VAE plant in Singapore. That plant was actually supplying some demand in China. We're now able to kind of shift that network really to service growing customers in our VAE demand, such as paints and coatings, mortars and adhesives.

丹，我唯一想補充的是，從下游來看，老實說，我們剛剛進行的 VAE 擴張不僅是為了中國，也是為了東南亞和印度的成長。我們在新加坡已經有 VAE 工廠。該工廠實際上正在滿足中國的一些需求。我們現在能夠真正轉變該網絡來滿足客戶對 VAE 日益增長的需求，例如油漆和塗料、砂漿和黏合劑。

That's really helpful. And then with costs, we talked again a lot about price cost with raw materials. But I was just wondering what's happening with labor and potentially transportation costs if they're kind of elevated and going higher and that, that could have a kind of a negative impact towards the second half of the year?

這真的很有幫助。然後關於成本，我們再次討論了許多關於原材料的價格成本。但我只是想知道，如果勞動力和運輸成本上漲並且繼續上漲，會發生什麼事？

Look, I think we've seen over the last several years, pressures on labor cost, as has everybody, but I would say through productivity steps and others, that's managed, that's baked in. And I'm not seeing any significant pressure there for the second half of the year.

看，我認為我們在過去幾年中已經看到了勞動力成本的壓力，每個人都看到了，但我想說，通過提高生產力和其他措施，這些壓力已經得到控制，已經融入其中。

Yes. And on transportation, I mean, this is a common theme we've seen now for a while. And I think that has impacted product movements around the globe for the industry broadly. So really nothing is different now or in the second half than what we've been seeing here for a while.

是的。關於交通，這是我們目前看到的一個共同主題。我認為這對全球產業的產品流動產生了廣泛影響。因此，現在或下半年的情況與我們之前看到的情況相比，確實沒有什麼不同。

And our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Patrick Cunningham。

This is Eric Zhang, on for Patrick. On the incremental excess supply in China acetic acid, do you have an outlook on when the delayed downstream startups will be resolved? And once that is resolved, do you expect it to have a meaningful uplift in acetic acid pricing in China?

這是 Eric Zhang，代替 Patrick。關於中國醋酸供應增量過剩的問題，您認為下游開工延遲的問題何時能解決？一旦這個問題解決，您是否預期中國的醋酸價格將大幅上漲？

Yes. Look, the projects that we were aware of, I think are a quarter or two delayed. I mean, the real question, of course, is that demand for those products has to be driven by more demand for exports quite frankly. And so how long that takes to resolve is really tied to consumer spending, general view of the economy, people's confidence in buying goods again. So I would say, while we do expect that capacity to be -- to start up, whether over in full or whether it will just replace other capacity remains to be seen.

是的。你看，我們所知道的項目，我認為已經推遲了一兩個季度。我的意思是，坦白說，真正的問題是這些產品的需求必須由更多的出口需求來推動。因此，解決這個問題需要多長時間實際上與消費者支出、總體經濟觀點以及人們再次購買商品的信心有關。因此我想說，雖然我們確實預計該產能將會啟動，但是否全面啟動或是否僅取代其他產能還有待觀察。

The other thing that I said earlier, which I emphasize again, is there are some new uses in China of acetic acid that should start taking some of this capacity, like [caprolactam]. So I can't give you a number now, but I would say, I think we're still several quarters away from starting to see any significant movement in that.

我之前說過的另一件事，我再次強調，就是中國乙酸有一些新的用途，應該會開始利用部分產能，例如[己內醯胺]。所以我現在無法給你一個數字，但我想說，我認為我們還需要幾個季度才能開始看到任何重大的變化。

Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Salvator Tiano。

Yes. So firstly, I want to ask a little bit on Engineered Materials and specifically your auto exposure. As we're seeing more and more automakers delay their EV plants and sticking with ICE engines, even just a few months ago, how does this change against your plan and your potential margin uplift? And also, are you seeing any impact for consumers trading down to lower-priced models as well?

是的。首先，我想問一些關於工程材料的問題，特別是自動曝光的問題。我們看到越來越多的汽車製造商推遲了他們的電動車工廠並堅持使用內燃機，即使就在幾個月前，這對您的計劃和潛在的利潤率提升有何影響？另外，您是否也看到消費者購買低價車款也受到了影響？

Let me try to answer the first part, and then I'll let Scott take the second part. I would say, look, as long as consumers are buying vehicles, we're happy. EVs do have about a 10% higher content available to us than ICEs, but we still have a very large position in ICE vehicles. As to the extent people are converting to hybrids, hybrids are about 20% more content available to us than ICE. So while there are some shifts and shifts in which products, as long as people are buying vehicles, like I said, we're happy.

讓我試著回答第一部分，然後讓史考特回答第二部分。我想說，只要消費者買車，我們就很高興。與內燃機汽車相比，電動車的可用容量確實高出約 10%，但我們在內燃機汽車領域仍佔有很大的份額。就人們轉向混合動力汽車的程度而言，混合動力汽車可供我們使用的內容比內燃機汽車多 20% 左右。因此，儘管產品發生了一些變化，但只要人們購買車輛，就像我說的，我們就很高興。

Yes. And we have to continue to work our pipeline really to touch on all 3 areas, whether it's battery electric, hybrid or ICE, just because each market is developing a little differently. I mean, in China now, over 20% of the market is EV. And so we still have to continue to focus EV there pretty heavily. So it is important that we kind of build that broadly speaking. We have not seen a significant change in terms of the types of vehicles and what our customers are buying and really an impact to our business at all.

是的。我們必須繼續努力，真正觸及所有三個領域，無論是電池電動、混合動力還是內燃機，因為每個市場的發展都略有不同。我的意思是，現在在中國，超過20%的市場是電動車。因此我們仍然必須繼續高度關注電動車。因此，從廣義上講，建立這種體系非常重要。就車輛類型和客戶購買而言，我們並未看到重大變化，這對我們的業務也沒有任何影響。

And in fact, I mean, if you look at things on a year-over-year basis, which is probably the right way to look at it, auto builds were up, I think, around 2% or so. Globally, our business, our volumes were up about 4% on a year-over-year basis into auto. So I think from that perspective, specifically, we feel like the project pipeline model continues to deliver value for us.

事實上，我的意思是，如果你從同比的角度來看待問題，這也許是正確的看待問題的方式，我認為汽車產量增加了 2% 左右。從全球來看，我們的汽車業務量年增了約 4%。因此，我認為從這個角度來看，具體來說，我們覺得專案管道模型繼續為我們帶來價值。

Great. And I also want to ask to go back a little bit on the China acetyls capacity expansion. I assume some of these downstream projects that were supposed to absorb the acid demand are on the polyester chain, but at least on our estimates, there are a bunch of VAM and EVA projects as well. So certainly, as they come online, they will absorb more of the acetic acid, but you do participate in these markets, and you did have a comment in the prepared remarks that you have much higher variable margins, I believe, in the downstream projects. So as this capacity comes online? On a net basis, would that actually be good for you? Or could it be a source of margin pressure because you may lose some margin of the -- on your downstream business?

偉大的。我還想稍微回顧一下中國乙醯產能擴張的情況。我認為其中一些旨在吸收酸需求的下游項目位於聚酯鏈上，但至少根據我們的估計，也有很多 VAM 和 EVA 項目。因此，當然，隨著它們上線，它們將吸收更多的乙酸，但你確實參與了這些市場，而且你在準備好的評論中確實評論說，我相信，你在下游項目中擁有更高的可變利潤率。那麼這種容量何時上線？ 從淨值來看，這對你來說真的有好處嗎？或者這會成為利潤壓力的一個來源，因為你可能會損失下游業務的部分利潤？

Look, I would simplify it and just say, any additional demand for acetic acid, no matter which end market is in to, is good for us. So again, because we do sell a lot of acids to others as well.

看起來，我會簡化它並說，任何對乙酸的額外需求，無論屬於哪個終端市場，對我們都有好處。再說一次，因為我們也確實向其他人出售了很多酸。

Yes. And I would just add, I think when new capacity starts up, whether it's acetic acid, VAM, et cetera, it's going to come in and it's going to have a near-term impact. But those things then even out over the subsequent quarters. And our business is really about flexing our global network and that full value chain. And so one quarter, we're going to make money one way. The next quarter, we're going to make money a different way. And that really is the uniqueness of this kind of integrated value creation model that we have within the Acetyl Chain.

是的。我想補充一點，我認為當新產能啟動時，無論是醋酸、VAM 還是其他，它都會投入使用並產生短期影響。但這些情況在接下來的幾季都會趨於平穩。我們的業務其實就是拓展我們的全球網絡和完整的價值鏈。因此，在一個季度內，我們將以一種方式賺錢。下個季度，我們將以不同的方式賺錢。這確實是我們在乙醯鏈中所擁有的這種整合價值創造模式的獨特之處。

Diego, we will make the next question our last one, please.

迭戈，下一個問題是我們的最後一個問題。

And that final question comes from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

最後一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

I again, wanted to revisit the Acetyl Chain, particularly in China. I mean, reading through your prepared remarks, it just seemed like the first quarter was like a tale of 2 cities. It seemed you guys started very strong. And then by February pricing started weakening. Just trying to understand the dynamic behind that. I mean it seems the 2 new facilities that you guys talked about, they've been around for, call it, 5 or 6 months. So what really caused that change between the first half of Q1 and the second half?

我再次想重新審視乙醯鏈，特別是在中國。我的意思是，讀完你準備好的發言，感覺第一季就像是兩個城市的故事。看起來你們一開始就很強勢。到了二月份，價格開始走弱。只是想了解背後的動態。我的意思是，你們談到的 2 個新設施似乎已經存在了 5 或 6 個月了。那麼，是什麼真正導致了第一季上半段和下半段之間的這種變化呢？

Well, Hassan, you may recall, I mean, typically in China, Q1 is seasonally lower demand quarter because of Chinese New Year. So if you look at total -- if you look at acetic acid prices, specifically in China, I mean, what we did see in Q1 was the lowest price since fourth quarter of '20. And again, not unexpected, very much in line with what we've expected. And again, it is based on the lower demand. I would also tell you, even though that new capacity maybe came on 2 quarters ago, it takes a while for them to ramp up and to really get into the market. So I would say it's shaping up very much as expected. I would also say this is normal as Scott said, that there is some minor disruption in the market when these come online, but things do settle down over time.

嗯，哈桑，你可能還記得，我的意思是，在中國，由於農曆新年，第一季通常是季節性需求較低的季度。因此，如果您看總體價格——特別是在中國，醋酸價格，我們在第一季看到的是自 20 年第四季以來的最低價格。再次，這並不出乎意料，非常符合我們的預期。再次強調，這是基於較低的需求。我還要告訴你，儘管新產能可能在兩個季度前就出現了，但他們仍需要一段時間才能達到預期並真正進入市場。因此我想說，事情的發展就像預期的那樣。正如斯科特所說，我也想說這是正常的，當這些產品上線時，市場會出現一些輕微的混亂，但隨著時間的推移，事情會逐漸平息。

Yes. And let me just add, Hassan, I think it's important to remember, we have the single largest -- our single unit -- the largest single unit turnaround in the history of the corporation in the first quarter, largely hitting the Acetyl Chain business. We had some of these dynamics in China, yet the business still generated a 28% EBITDA margin. So it's a very resilient business that finds a way to still deliver value even when we see market disruptions or when we see higher costs from things like turnarounds.

是的。讓我補充一下，哈桑，我認為需要記住的是，我們在第一季經歷了公司歷史上最大的單一部門轉變，這主要打擊了乙醯鏈業務。我們在中國也有一些這樣的動態，但業務仍然產生了 28% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。因此，這是一項非常有韌性的業務，即使在市場混亂或因扭虧為盈等因素導致成本上升的情況下，它仍然能夠找到方法創造價值。

Very helpful. And as a follow-up, if I could just sort of hit on the 2024 guidance again, maybe in EBITDA terms. I mean over the last couple of months, you talked about some of the drivers, and I just want to make sure, numerically, I'm thinking about them or they're trending as you guys had stated a couple of months ago. I mean you talked about the M&M synergies being, call it, $150 million EBITDA-wise worth of a tailwind, Clear Lake expansion being around $100 million. And then obviously, you had some offsets in terms of headwinds from some of the outages that you had last year. So I mean, as you sort of sit there and think about some of those headwinds and tailwinds, incrementally year-on-year, how much of a boost will we get from some of these controllables and new capacity additions?

非常有幫助。作為後續問題，如果我可以再次談到 2024 年的指引，也許是以 EBITDA 的形式。我的意思是，在過去的幾個月裡，你們談到了一些驅動因素，我只是想確保，從數字上來說，我正在考慮它們，或者它們的趨勢正如你們幾個月前所說的那樣。我的意思是，您談到 M&M 的協同效應，可以說，EBITDA 為 1.5 億美元的順風，而 Clear Lake 的擴張則價值約 1 億美元。顯然，您在克服去年的部分停電事件帶來的不利因素方面已經取得了一些進展。所以我的意思是，當你坐在那裡思考一些逆風和順風時，逐年遞增，我們將從這些可控因素和新產能增加中獲得多大的推動力？

Yes. Again, I think if you look at versus 2023, those things that you called out, M&M synergies that $150 million, Clear Lake expansion, we've asked them to still deliver $100 million for the year. And we probably have another -- an offset of about $100 million, maybe a bit more for higher turnaround-related expenses as well as some of the nonrepeatable impacts from last year. I think the 2 factors you are not factoring in there is we will have lower debt services year as we've paid down over $1.5 million of our net debt. And that's probably another 50 or so, and then we'll have lower costs flowing through from our inventories with all of the inventory we took out last year and be able to flush out some of that higher cost inventory and as we said, that may be the single biggest factor this coming year as well.

是的。再說一次，我認為，如果您與 2023 年相比，您提到的那些事情，M＆M 協同效應，1.5 億美元，Clear Lake 擴建，我們要求他們在今年仍交付 1 億美元。我們可能還有另外一筆約 1 億美元的抵銷額，或許更多一些，用於彌補更高的周轉相關費用以及去年的一些不可重複的影響。我認為您沒有考慮到的兩個因素是，由於我們已經償還了超過 150 萬美元的淨債務，因此我們的債務償還將會降低。這可能還需要 50 個左右，然後我們將從庫存中降低成本，因為我們去年清理了所有庫存，並能夠清除一些成本較高的庫存，正如我們所說的，這也可能是來年最大的單一因素。

And there are no further questions at this time. I'll hand the floor over to Bill Cunningham for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我將把發言權交給比爾·坎寧安 (Bill Cunningham) 來做最後評論。

Thank you. We'd like to thank everyone for listening in today. As always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions. Diego, please go ahead and close out the call.

謝謝。我們感謝大家今天的收聽。像往常一樣，通話結束後我們仍可以回答任何後續問題。迭戈，請繼續並結束通話。

Thank you. With that, we conclude today's conference. All parties may disconnect. Have a good day.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。各方均可斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。