塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Celanese's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast.

問候並歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2024 年第二季財報電話會議和網路廣播。

[Operator Instructions].

[操作說明]。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，投資者關係副總裁比爾坎寧安（Bill Cunningham）。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thanks, Diego.

謝謝，迭戈。

Welcome to the Celanese Corporation's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

My name is Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我叫比爾坎寧安 (Bill Cunningham)，投資人關係副總裁。

With me on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Operating Officer; and Chuck Kyrish, Chief Financial Officer.

與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk；理查森 (Scott Richardson)，營運長；以及財務長 Chuck Kyrish。

Celanese distributed its second quarter earnings released via Business Wire and posted prepared comments on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

塞拉尼斯昨天下午透過商業電訊發布了其第二季度收益，並在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today.

提醒一下，今天我們將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements.

今天的演示還將包括前瞻性陳述。

Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and prepared comments.

請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，可在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。

Form 8-K report containing all of these materials has also been submitted to the SEC.

包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

.With that, Diego, let's please go ahead and open it up for questions.

.迭戈，現在請我們開始提問。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll now conduct our question-and-answer session.

我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Our first question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

Please state your questions.

請陳述您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

So I wanted to ask on some of the moving pieces within Engineered Materials.

所以我想問一下工程材料中的一些活動部件。

I mean, obviously nice to see a good step up here in the second quarter, but I think there's been a constant debate around where the market is, and what's stable and in your control versus what needs to have a market improvement.

我的意思是，顯然很高興看到第二季度有一個良好的進展，但我認為關於市場現狀、什麼是穩定的、什麼是你能控制的、什麼需要市場改善等問題一直存在爭論。

So I guess when you look at your expectations about the improvement into 2Q, or sorry into 3Q, and maybe a stable second half, what are you assuming behind the market to get there versus cost savings in your control?

因此，我想，當您看到對第二季或第三季改善的預期，以及可能穩定的下半年時，您對市場實現這一目標的假設是什麼，以及您控制的成本節約情況如何？

And given all the cuts we've made in expectation, is this kind of the point where you feel like you're now conservative enough, or are there other things that you would have us watch out for?

並且考慮到我們在預期中做出的所有削減，您是否覺得現在已經足夠保守了，或者還有其他需要我們注意的事情？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, Josh.

早安，喬希。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

If we look at our Q3 guidance, I would say, we're generally expecting things to be unchanged in terms of overall market conditions.

如果我們看一下第三季的指引，我想說，我們總體上預期整體市場狀況將保持不變。

We do expect a little bit of growth in auto builds in the second half, particularly in China, which I think is consistent with what others in the industry are seeing, but generally everything else is pretty stable.

我們確實預計下半年汽車產量會略有增長，尤其是在中國，我認為這與業內其他公司看到的情況一致，但總體而言，其他一切都相當穩定。

We're not expecting a lot of downturns.

我們預計不會出現太多的衰退。

That said, we do continue to expect some moderate growth in our volumes based on the strength of our product pipeline.

儘管如此，基於我們產品線的實力，我們確實仍預期我們的銷售量將出現適度成長。

We also expect some continued growth in margin based on synergy pull-through and also pull-through of lower cost raw materials in inventory.

我們也預計，在綜效和庫存低成本原料的拉動下，利潤率將持續成長。

So I would say, we don't need market improvement.

所以我想說，我們不需要市場改善。

I guess maybe other than that, a little bit in auto, in order to achieve our second half outlook from an Engineered Materials standpoint.

我想也許除此之外，還會在汽車領域有一點發展，以便從工程材料的角度實現我們下半年的展望。

And I guess just within the auto side specifically, considering that's been an area of kind of weakening demand.

我想具體來說就是在汽車方面，因為這是需求減弱的一個領域。

Is it specific new platforms on certain cars that has driven it.

是不是某些車型上的特定新平台推動了這個趨勢？

Is it regional with Asia?

它是亞洲區域性的嗎？

I guess, what gives you the confidence there specifically?

我想，具體是什麼給了你信心呢？

I think a lot of it is the work around the integration.

我認為其中很多工作都是圍繞著整合進行的。

We now have access to customers with Celanese materials that we previously didn't have, because of the contacts that our heritage DuPont had.

由於我們的前身杜邦公司擁有聯繫，我們現在可以接觸到以前無法接觸到的塞拉尼斯材料客戶。

It's particularly in non-China, parts of Asia.

這種現象尤其出現在中國以外的亞洲地區。

And similarly we have some outlets for some of the heritage M&M materials that we didn't have before.

同樣，我們也為一些以前沒有的傳統 M&M 材料找到了一些銷售管道。

And I think it's really, again, the project pipeline.

我認為這實際上又是專案管道。

I mean, we've been working now for, well, for a long time, but with the entire portfolio for 18 months to really identify those new customers, those new orders, those new areas within existing customers and make sure that we're strong across all the platforms and auto ICE, Engineered Materials and hybrids.

我的意思是，我們已經工作了很長一段時間，但花了 18 個月的時間對整個產品組合進行研究，以真正識別那些新客戶、新訂單、現有客戶中的新領域，並確保我們在所有平台和汽車 ICE、工程材料和混合動力汽車上都保持強勁勢頭。

And we called out last quarter earnings, in fact, some of the applications we're getting on EVs with nylon, which is an area where DuPont didn't necessarily play.

事實上，我們在上個季度的財報中提到，我們的一些應用是在電動車上使用尼龍，而這是杜邦公司不一定會涉足的領域。

Understood.

明白了。

Thanks, Lori.

謝謝，洛瑞。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Please state your questions.

請陳述您的問題。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

In terms of the fourth quarter versus the third, it does look like you'll need some improvements sequentially, is, at the midpoint, is a lot of that within your control.

就第四季與第三季相比，看起來你確實需要連續進行一些改進，在中間階段，很多改進都在你的控制範圍內。

Some of the factors that you've talked about in the past?

您過去談過一些因素嗎？

Yes.

是的。

If you do the math, you would expect that we need some additional lift in the fourth quarter.

如果你算一下，你會發現我們在第四季需要一些額外的提升。

I would put it down to a few things.

我認為有以下幾件事。

We, it should be our largest quarter of synergy capture, for the Engineered Materials.

對於工程材料而言，這應該是我們協同效應最大的一個季度。

We should start seeing more of a full year run rate on Clear Lake, as we'll have gotten through all the effects of the supplier outages and a little bit from Hurricane Beryl in the third quarter.

我們應該開始看到 Clear Lake 全年的運作率更高，因為我們已經度過了供應商停產的所有影響，以及第三季颶風 Beryl 帶來的一點影響。

So that will be an uplift there.

所以這將會是一個提升。

I would also say, our mix has changed.

我還想說，我們的組合已經改變。

So with the acquisition of M&M, we now have a higher presence in China.

透過收購M&M，我們現在在中國的市佔率更高了。

And so we wouldn't expect as much seasonality, now in the fourth quarter, as we've typically seen with the heritage Celanese portfolio.

因此，我們預計第四季的季節性不會像傳統塞拉尼斯產品組合那麼明顯。

So all of those things come together.

所以所有這些事情都聚集在一起了。

Again, we're not, other than this a little bit of uptick that's being predicted in auto.

再說一遍，除了汽車產業預測的一點點上漲之外，我們沒有其他預測。

We are not really expecting material conditions to change.

我們其實並不期望物質條件改變。

So, it really will be the results of kind of the self-help, the activities that we've undertaken over the last 18 months.

所以，這其實是我們過去 18 個月所進行的自助活動的成果。

Yes.

是的。

The one thing I'd add to that, Mike is, is the work we're doing in the commercial organization, in the Engineered Materials business.

麥克，我想補充的一點是我們在商業組織、在工程材料業務中所做的工作。

We integrated the commercial teams in the early part of Q2 last year, and the average length of time that projects sit in our pipeline is about 18 months to 24 months.

我們在去年第二季初整合了商業團隊，專案在我們流程中的平均週期約為 18 個月至 24 個月。

So we're really coming up on that kind of first 18 months plateau here at the end of this year in the fourth quarter and going into next year.

因此，我們實際上將在今年年底（第四季）以及明年達到前 18 個月的穩定水平。

And given kind of the trajectory we've seen on the success of the volume lift from Q1 to Q2, we're really starting to see the benefit of that model play out with bringing M&M into that EM business.

鑑於我們從第一季到第二季看到的銷量成功提升軌跡，我們真正開始看到將 M&M 引入 EM 業務後該模式帶來的好處。

And so you do have a little bit of an element of that as well from how we see the pipeline developing at the end of the year.

因此，從我們看到的年底管道發展來看，您確實也了解到了一些這方面的資訊。

Right.

正確的。

And the quick follow up.

並快速跟進。

The macro hasn't been very helpful for you and can be in general.

該巨集對您沒有太大幫助，並且一般情況下也是如此。

So, if things get worse sequentially into the second half, what changes can you make to sort of hit this range?

那麼，如果情況在下半年持續惡化，您可以做出哪些改變來達到這個範圍？

And then how do you sort of help us think about '25, and the ramp up potential of the earnings process for Celanese longer term.

然後您如何幫助我們思考25年以及塞拉尼斯長期獲利過程的提升潛力。

Yes.

是的。

Look, things can always get worse, right?

你看，事情總是會變得更糟，對吧？

And we've seen that, but I would also say things have been certainly very challenging this year, and the results that we're delivering this year are really based on the remarkable efforts of our teams and their ability to innovate, the resilience that they've shown, and really looking under every rock for sources of value.

我們已經看到了這一點，但我還想說，今年的情況確實非常具有挑戰性，我們今年取得的成果實際上基於我們團隊的非凡努力、他們的創新能力和他們所表現出的韌性，以及真正地在每個角落尋找價值源泉。

So, if it gets worse, that will continue.

所以，如果情況變得更糟，這種情況將會持續下去。

I would say, Europe for all practical measures has been in a near recessionary kind of condition.

我想說，從所有實際措施來看，歐洲已經處於近乎衰退的狀態。

So, we think it's going to be stable based on what we can see in our order books right now, certainly for Q3.

因此，根據我們目前的訂單情況，我們認為它將保持穩定，當然對於第三季而言。

As we go into 2025, we will continue to have self-help, which will help lift us in '25.

當我們邁入2025年時，我們將繼續自救，這將有助於我們在2025年取得進步。

I think if you look at '25, we can think about the run rate that we'll see in the second half of the year continuing through '25.

我認為，如果你看一下25年，我們可以想想我們將在下半年看到的持續到25年的運行率。

Then we'll have another tranche of M&M synergies on top of that, as well as full productivity from Clear Lake next year and probably some additional interest rate benefits as well.

然後，我們將在此基礎上獲得另一部分 M&M 協同效應，以及明年 Clear Lake 的全部生產力，可能還會獲得一些額外的利率優惠。

So, I think, the things that we've seen this year will continue to compound into next year and raise the 2025 results.

因此，我認為，我們今年看到的情況將繼續影響到明年，並提高 2025 年的結果。

But frankly, it's just too early to tell what the fundamental economic conditions are going to be in 2025, yet.

但坦白說，現在判斷 2025 年的基本經濟狀況還為時過早。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Mike Leithead with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

Please state your questions.

請陳述您的問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, team.

早安，各位同事。

A few questions on the acetyls force majeure.

關於乙醯不可抗力的幾個問題。

I guess, first, are we still in force majeure?

我想，首先，我們是否仍處於不可抗力狀態？

And when do you expect to fully resolve these disruptions?

您預計什麼時候能夠徹底解決這些幹擾問題？

Two, should we think about any insurance proceeds or any sort of restitution for you guys from these disruptions.

二，我們是否應該考慮為你們因這些中斷而獲得任何保險收益或任何形式的賠償。

And then finally, apologies if I missed this, but what is the all-in expected cost impact from this outage?

最後，如果我錯過了這一點，請原諒，但這次停電預計會造成多少總成本影響？

Thanks for the question, Mike.

謝謝你的提問，麥克。

We are still in force majeure.

我們仍處於不可抗力狀態。

The units obviously are restarted, running well, but it is a longish supply chain in the western hemisphere.

這些裝置顯然已經重新啟動，運作良好，但西半球的供應鏈較長。

So we're in force majeure till we can reestablish those supply chains into Europe, which is the work going on currently.

因此，在我們能夠重新建立歐洲的供應鏈之前，我們處於不可抗力狀態，這是目前正在進行的工作。

But we fully expect that we'll lift the force majeure sometime in this quarter.

但我們完全預期不可抗力將在本季的某個時候解除。

In terms of restitution.

在賠償方面。

We're really just focused right now and have been focused in the second quarter on working with our suppliers to understand what the issues were, how we could get through them more quickly, how to address reliability issues going forward, how to make sure that we maintain really good relationships?

我們現在真正關注的重點是，在第二季度，我們將專注於與我們的供應商合作，以了解問題是什麼，我們如何更快地解決這些問題，如何解決未來的可靠性問題，如何確保我們保持良好的關係？

That's really been our focus now.

這確實是我們現在關注的重點。

And we'll have discussions about any, any form of restitution later.

我們稍後會討論任何形式的賠償。

Okay.

好的。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

And then just in terms of all-in cost impact?

那麼僅就總成本影響而言嗎？

Oh, I'm sorry.

噢，對不起。

I just missed it.

我剛才錯過了。

Yes.

是的。

So, this quarter, second quarter, I would say, it was about $35 million.

因此，我想說本季度，第二季度，約 3500 萬美元。

And then next quarter we'll see another $5 million to $10 million.

下個季度我們將看到另外 500 萬到 1000 萬美元。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then I just want to follow up on some of the competitive dynamics in your product.

然後我只想跟進一下你們產品的一些競爭動態。

I think in the remarks as commodity, commodity nylon is below the cost curve.

我認為在商品評論中，商品尼龍低於成本曲線。

There's been some opportunistic pricing, if you will, in some other areas.

如果你願意的話，其他一些領域也存在一些機會主義定價。

I guess, what is your best kind of judgment about where we stand today?

我想，您對我們目前的狀況能做出什麼樣的最佳判斷呢？

Or are we still atrophying in price in some of these areas?

或者說，在某些領域，價格是否仍在萎縮？

Are we stabilizing, or have we started to recover here?

我們的情況是否正在穩定下來，或者是否已經開始復甦？

As you called out, Mike, I mean, we definitely saw price pressure on raw nylon, polymer, this last quarter.

正如你所說的，麥克，我的意思是，我們上個季度確實看到了原料尼龍、聚合物的價格壓力。

It has definitely gone down, and it's, it's affected some of the margin uplift we expected from pull-through.

它確實下降了，並且影響了我們預期從拉動中實現的部分利潤提升。

That said, I think this really points out the benefit of the strategy, we took though to shutdown standard grade polymerization at Uentrop.

話雖如此，我認為這確實指出了該策略的好處，我們關閉了 Uentrop 的標準級聚合反應。

And really be able to give ourselves flexibility in terms of where we choose to source raw nylon, polymer and compounded for our customers.

並且在為我們的客戶選擇原料尼龍、聚合物和複合材料的來源方面，我們確實能夠給予我們靈活性。

So that's really paid off.

所以這確實得到了回報。

We would have seen more of a hit this past quarter, if we hadn't done that.

如果我們沒有這樣做的話，上個季度我們可能會遭受更大的打擊。

I would say, on the other products, not as much pricing pressure as margin pressure as we've seen some increase in raw materials, especially think about palm, where we've seen some increase in ethylene.

我想說，對於其他產品而言，價格壓力不如利潤壓力大，因為我們看到原物料價格上漲，尤其是棕櫚油，我們看到乙烯價格上漲。

So those being the two biggest, I would say, again nylon, its priced, but mitigated by the steps that we've taken; palm, we've seen pressure on ethylene pricing.

因此，我想說，這兩個是最大的問題，尼龍的價格昂貴，但我們採取的措施已經減輕了其影響；棕櫚，我們已經看到乙烯價格面臨壓力。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Were the outages at Clear Lake caused by anything else other than carbon monoxide difficulties?

清湖停電除了一氧化碳問題外，還有其他原因造成的嗎？

Was there some other source of inefficiency in the quarter?

本季是否存在其他效率低下的根源？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Jeff.

謝謝你的提問，傑夫。

Yes, with the suppliers that we have, and we've talked about multiple suppliers, was really around several different raw materials that we source.

是的，我們與現有的供應商以及多個供應商進行了交談，實際上涉及我們採購的幾種不同的原材料。

Several.

一些。

So, so it's a wider issue than CO.

所以，這是一個比 CO 更廣泛的問題。

Yes.

是的。

We're not talking about the specific materials, Jeff.

我們不是在談論具體的材料，傑夫。

I mean, at the end of the day, we talked about acetic acid, and we buy several different raw materials for that.

我的意思是，最後我們討論了乙酸，我們為此購買了幾種不同的原料。

And then secondly, can you talk about your preference as to whether you would sell acetic acid, or you would sell them in the current environment.

其次，您能否談談您是否傾向於銷售乙酸，或者您是否願意在當前環境下銷售乙酸。

How is that, can you compare the profitability of those two chemical outputs?

那怎麼樣？

Yes.

是的。

Honestly, Jeff, it really does fluctuate week-to-week region-to-region.

老實說，傑夫，不同地區的情況確實每週都會有波動。

And we are looking at kind of where the different markets are at, and kind of where they're trending based upon kind of where the fundamental supply/demand dynamics are.

我們正在研究不同市場的狀況，以及它們根據基本供需動態所呈現的趨勢。

And that is, is going to be kind of one way in one geography for the first part of the quarter and maybe a little different.

也就是說，在本季度的第一部分，我們將在一個地區採取同一種方式，也許會有些不同。

I would say, in general, we tend to be pivoting more as we talked about last quarter, in Asia more further downstream.

我想說，總的來說，正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們傾向於在亞洲進行更多的下游轉型。

We've seen more opportunities in our emulsions as well as our re-dispersible powders business to be able to grow in some of those areas.

我們在乳液以及可再分散乳膠粉業務中看到了更多機會，能夠在其中一些領域實現成長。

We talked in the prepared comments about some of the, out of a kind substitution that we've been successful driving there with the expanded capacities that we have.

我們在準備好的評論中談到了一些不同尋常的替代方案，我們利用現有的擴大產能成功地推動了這些替代方案的實施。

In addition, with those expanded capacities, we've been able to really work with our customers in India, specifically to kind of help develop that market and really start to drive there.

此外，隨著產能的擴大，我們能夠真正與印度客戶合作，特別是幫助開發該市場並真正開始推動該市場的發展。

So that has been a nice growth area for us more on the Asia side.

因此，這對於我們亞洲方面的一個很好的成長領域。

And I would say, it's a little more balanced than where we're selling in the Western hemisphere.

我想說，這比我們在西半球的銷售情況更為均衡。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Good morning.

早安.

Lori, I just want to go back to my usual question on the sort of the macro pulse.

洛瑞，我只是想回到我通常問的關於宏觀脈衝的問題。

Obviously, your volumes have been weak for several quarters.

顯然，你們的銷量已經連續幾季表現疲軟。

But just based on your sense as we spent around the world, do you feel like the macro is relatively stable on a consolidated basis?

但是僅根據您對我們在世界各地的消費情況的感覺，您是否覺得宏觀經濟在綜合基礎上相對穩定？

Or is it just your own initiatives that are masking what is otherwise a sequential deceleration?

還是只是你們自己的舉措掩蓋了原本連續的減速？

And I'm just asking because, obviously, the data in China is very poor.

我問這個問題是因為很明顯中國的數據很差。

Commodity prices have pulled back, including oil, et cetera, more recently.

最近，包括石油等大宗商品價格均有所回落。

So on a real-time basis, what are you seeing?

那麼從即時情況來看，您看到了什麼？

On a real-time basis, Ghansham, I would say, stable is the right word.

從即時情況來看，Ghansham，我想說，「穩定」是正確的詞。

Again, I go back to auto.

我再次回到自動狀態。

Auto actually has been a little stronger in the U.S. and Asia.

事實上，美國和亞洲的汽車市場表現更為強勁。

Europe has weakened year-on-year.

歐洲較去年同期減弱。

But globally, auto has been pretty stable.

但從全球來看，汽車產業一直相當穩定。

And, we do see, especially in China, some further strengthening in the second half.

而我們確實看到，尤其是在中國，下半年經濟將進一步加強。

Consumer and electronics again pretty stable globally.

全球消費品和電子產品再次相當穩定。

But in our own, own portfolio because of what we've been able to do through the project pipeline, and the good work by our teams on the ground, we are starting to see some growth in consumer and electronics.

但在我們自己的投資組合中，由於我們能夠透過專案管道完成工作，並且我們團隊在現場做得很好，我們開始看到消費和電子產品領域的一些成長。

We've had strong Q1 growth in medical implants, which is a little bit unique to us and as expected.

我們在第一季的醫療植入物方面實現了強勁成長，這對我們來說有些獨特，也正如預期的那樣。

And we really are not destocking the cadence and consistency of orders.

我們確實不會減少訂單的節奏和一致性。

It continues to improve.

它還在不斷改善。

We've got a few percent growth from that.

由此我們獲得了百分之幾的成長。

And really, I would say overall, I call the market stable, but we're starting to see a little bit of volume growth in Engineered Materials, anyway just because of the project pipeline and the revenue synergies et cetera.

實際上，我想說總體而言，市場是穩定的，但我們開始看到工程材料的銷量有所增長，無論如何，這只是因為專案管道和收入協同效應等等。

I think stable is the right word.

我認為“穩定”是正確的詞。

It is just, it is stable for construction, paints and coatings, specifically that sector at a, at a very low rate.

對於建築、油漆和塗料來說，它只是穩定，具體來說是那個行業的，速度非常低。

And we thought we'd start to see some seasonal uptick there.

我們認為我們將開始看到一些季節性的上升。

We have not seen that in the second quarter, and we're not anticipating it now for the third quarter as well.

我們在第二季度沒有看到這種情況，我們現在預計第三季也不會發生這種情況。

And I think that's true for, for all regions.

我認為對於所有地區都是如此。

But to put it in perspective, for the company as a whole, I'd say, remind you that 25% of what we make is auto.

但從整個公司的角度來看，我想提醒大家的是，我們生產的 25% 是汽車。

And auto has been stable to slightly up this year.

今年汽車價格一直穩定且略有上漲。

Everything else is less than that.

其餘一切都比這差遠了。

So, we're really seeing the value, I think in our portfolio, the diversity of our portfolio and the ability that has to help us stabilize earnings and buying pockets of improvement.

所以，我認為我們確實看到了投資組合的價值、投資組合的多樣性以及幫助我們穩定收益和購買改進點的能力。

Okay.

好的。

Fantastic.

極好的。

And then for my second question, in terms of free cash flow, I mean, you guys have been very efficient in pulling levers to kind of protect free cash flow throughout this, the challenging volume environment.

然後對於我的第二個問題，就自由現金流而言，我的意思是，你們一直非常有效地利用槓桿來保護自由現金流，以應對充滿挑戰的交易量環境。

Is there anything for 2025 that we need to keep in mind, as it relates to the bridge, '24 versus '25 that, that you're benefiting from this year that may not repeat next year.

對於 2025 年，我們需要牢記什麼？ 因為它與 24 年與 25 年之間的橋樑有關，今年您從中受益，但明年可能不會重複。

Chuck, so you would take that.

查克，所以你會接受這個。

Yes, Ghansham.

是的，Ghansham。

I would say, actually there are a couple of things in our components of our free cash flow in '25, which will get better.

我想說，實際上，25 年我們的自由現金流組成部分中有幾個方面會變得更好。

It's a very heavy year for cash taxes.

今年是現金稅負很重的一年。

I've tried to talk about a lot and explain.

我已嘗試談論和解釋很多事情。

Cash tax will be significantly lower next year.

明年現金稅將大幅降低。

Our cash interest will continue to drive lower next year as we, as we pay off our debt.

隨著我們還清債務，明年我們的現金利息將繼續下降。

I don't see our CapEx changing materially while we're hearing our deleveraging phase, right?

當我們進入去槓桿階段時，我認為我們的資本支出不會發生實質變化，對嗎？

So we've done a lot of work on, on our inventories as well.

因此，我們也對庫存做了大量工作。

So, there's actually a few things, next year, that we built in cash positives versus 2024.

因此，與 2024 年相比，明年我們實際上可以實現一些現金正收益。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So just going back to the force majeure comment.

因此，我們回到不可抗力的評論。

So, it sounds like 30, maybe $40 million to $45 million for the full year, which is maybe around $0.35 or so on the EPS line.

因此，聽起來全年的收入可能會是 3,000 萬到 4,000 萬美元，也就是每股收益約 0.35 美元。

So, if you think about the reduction, the remaining reduction maybe $0.65 at the midpoint.

因此，如果你考慮減少，剩餘的減少量中間值可能是 0.65 美元。

How do you think about that between price and volume?

您如何看待價格與數量之間的關係？

And any, any other factors, I guess driving that reduction?

我猜還有其他因素導致這種減少嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I would think about it, really in, in four buckets.

我實際上會從四個方面來考慮這個問題。

So the first bucket is, what you called out the $45 million or so associated with our supplier issues this year.

因此，第一個桶子是您所說的今年與我們的供應商問題相關的約 4500 萬美元。

There's probably another $40 million on top of that of Clear Lake productivity because of the timing of when all this happened relative to our startup, et cetera, that $100 million of productivity.

由於這一切發生的時間相對於我們的新創公司而言，因此可能還需要在 Clear Lake 生產力之上再投入 4,000 萬美元，等等，這 1 億美元的生產力。

We won't get there's about $40 million more of that.

我們不會得到大約 4000 萬美元的資金。

So that's about half of that, of that step-up that we would expect have expected to get to foundational earnings, for, in that dollar.

因此，這大約是那個增量的一半，我們預計將達到基礎收益，以美元計算。

And then the other part of that, sorry, I'm thinking about '25, let me back up.

然後是另一部分，抱歉，我在想‘25’，讓我回顧一下。

So for your question, which is really about the dollar we went down.

對於你的問題，這實際上是關於美元貶值的問題。

Again, it's the same, but so we have about, nearly half of it is coming from that.

再說一次，情況是一樣的，但是我們有大約一半的數據來自於此。

Then we have, I'd say, the issues we're having around construction, paints and coatings.

然後我想說的是，我們面臨的問題是建築、油漆和塗料。

And it's really more there a question of, of margins in the acetyl business.

事實上，這更多的是乙醯基業務的利潤問題。

And then on the EM side, which is the third bucket, it is really the question of what are we able to pull through on raw materials because as we've talked about with palm, margins being compressed and nylon margins being compressed, but one because of raw materials and one because of pricing.

然後在 EM 方面，即第三個方面，真正的問題是我們能夠在原材料方面取得什麼進展，因為正如我們所討論的棕櫚油利潤率正在被壓縮，尼龍利潤率也在被壓縮，但一個是因為原材料，一個是因為定價。

We had said we may get as much as 150 pull-through in, of lower raw materials.

我們曾說過，我們可能會獲得多達 150 個較低原料的拉動量。

We're probably only going to get about half of that this year.

今年我們可能只能獲得其中的一半。

So I would think about it that way.

所以我會這樣想。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And I guess you're answering my other question, there a little bit as well.

我想你也回答了我的另一個問題。

So, just as you think about '25, then which of those factors kind of come back to you?

那麼，當您想到 25 時，哪些因素會回到您的腦海中？

It sounds like maybe half of that.

聽起來可能只有一半。

And then on top of that, how much do you expect from synergies and deleveraging as you look into '25?

除此之外，展望25年，您對綜效和去槓桿的預期有多大？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So when you think about '25, as I said, the run rate we see in the second half, I think is a good indicator as a base for '25.

因此，當您考慮 25 年時，正如我所說，我們在下半年看到的運行率，我認為可以作為 25 年基礎的一個很好的指標。

And then you think about we also of course, in the second half, we will get the majority of that Clear Lake supplier issues will have been cleared off.

然後你想想，當然，在下半年，我們也會解決大部分 Clear Lake 供應商問題。

We'll start getting some more productivity.

我們將開始提高生產力。

So, if you look forward, I would think about synergies.

因此，如果你展望未來，我會考慮綜效。

We will definitely have a good tranche of synergies next year similar to what we've had this year and last year.

我們明年肯定會有類似今年和去年的良好協同效應。

And then we should have a little bit of additional help from turnarounds as well.

然後我們也應該從扭轉局面中獲得一些額外的幫助。

And then, of course, we have some additional help from interest rates.

當然，我們也得到了利率的一些額外幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Lori, can I ask you on the Acetyl Chain.

洛瑞，我可以問你關於乙醯鏈的問題嗎？

You noted that the Clear Lake outage, I think you said was the biggest one you've had in 15 years.

您提到 Clear Lake 停電，我認為您說這是 15 年來最大的停電。

And obviously, it didn't lead to, to the market improving.

顯然，這並沒有導致市場好轉。

So as you bring Clear Lake back up, are you making any adjustments to production anywhere else?

那麼，當您重新恢復 Clear Lake 的生產時，您是否對其他地方的生產做出了任何調整？

Or do you think that the, the market is going to be able to absorb the resumption of production even as we kind of come out of what, what usually is a seasonally stronger period of the year?

或者您認為，即使我們剛走出一年中通常較為強勁的季節性時期，市場也能夠吸收恢復生產的影響？

Vincent, it's hard to say.

文森特，這很難說。

I mean, we make adjustments all the time to our production.

我的意思是，我們一直在對我們的生產進行調整。

And, so we'll continue to look at that.

因此我們將繼續關注這個問題。

I mean, it's a call that happens daily just about in the acetyl team is what we should be making where based on, on where the markets are going.

我的意思是，乙醯基團隊每天都會召開電話會議，我們應該根據市場的方向來做決定。

So, I don't see this necessarily changing it.

因此，我不認為這必然會改變它。

You're right.

你說得對。

We didn't see much price response with the shutdown are with the loss of production during that time.

由於停產以及那段時間的生產損失，我們並沒有看到價格有太大的反應。

But I think that just reflects how really weak the demand environment is for constructions and coatings.

但我認為這只是反映了建築和塗料的需求環境確實很疲軟。

Scott, do you have something?

史考特，你有什麼事嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, how I would add to that, Vincent, is it's kind of going back to what we talked about earlier is, we're constantly looking at, at matching rates with where that demand is, and where we can maximize that really on a weekly and monthly basis.

我的意思是，文森特，我要補充的是，這有點回到我們之前談到的內容，即我們不斷關注與需求相匹配的費率，以及我們真正可以在每周和每月的基礎上實現最大化的費率。

And, assuming that we are able to, to get back the key raw materials where we had multiple suppliers that had issues on that, then it's going to give us the ability to have that optionality to kind of operate the chain as we normally do.

並且，假設我們能夠收回關鍵原材料，而我們有多個供應商在這方面存在問題，那麼這將使我們能夠選擇像平常一樣運營供應鏈。

And, so we're rebuilding our inventories now and getting that flexibility back and to be able to get that flex, which is just going to kind of depend kind of where things are from month to month.

因此，我們現在正在重建庫存，重新獲得靈活性，並能夠獲得這種靈活性，這將取決於每個月的情況。

And then if I could just follow up.

然後我可以繼續跟進。

Also in the prepared remarks, you made some comments, Lori, about the new assets in China that, that have started up and that obviously, that's incremental supply that, that hasn't been absorbed.

此外，在準備好的演講中，洛里，您對中國已啟動的新資產發表了一些評論，顯然這些是尚未被吸收的增量供應。

But what I was trying to square was you said that, that supply seems to have stayed largely in Asia and that European exports or exports in Europe are down are down 40% over the last 12 months.

但我想澄清的是，您說的供應似乎主要停留在亞洲，而歐洲的出口或歐洲的出口在過去 12 個月中下降了 40%。

So, I just wanted to understand, is that saying that, that excess product that's come out of those Chinese facilities is just sort of weighing on only on the Asian market, but they've also actually taken product out of Europe?

所以，我只是想了解一下，這是否意味著，這些中國工廠生產的過剩產品不僅對亞洲市場造成壓力，而且他們實際上也將產品從歐洲帶走了？

Or I just didn't understand why the European exports had come down?

或者我只是不明白為什麼歐洲的出口會下降？

Yes.

是的。

I think if you just look at the low margins that are associated right now, I mean, China has been basically at the cost curve.

我認為，如果你只看目前相關的低利潤率，中國基本上處於成本曲線上。

So, all these new units have started up and they may be slightly advantaged that given the low demand in China, especially in some of the areas like construction, but also EBA where we've seen quite a downturn here recently.

所以，所有這些新單位都已啟動，考慮到中國的需求低迷，它們可能略有優勢，特別是在建築業等一些領域，而且我們最近也看到 EBA 出現了相當大的低迷。

That material quite frankly it's more affordable for them to ship it and put it in other parts of Asia than necessarily to get it to China.

坦白說，將這些材料運送到亞洲其他地區比運往中國更經濟實惠。

So, I think it's the economics of taking that demand into Asia, which has left the channel to Europe more to the U.S.

所以，我認為將這種需求帶入亞洲的經濟學是，這使得通往歐洲的管道更多地流向了美國。

Okay.

好的。

That makes sense.

這很有道理。

Thanks very much for the clarity.

非常感謝您的澄清。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Hi.

你好。

This is Matt Hettwer on for Kevin McCarthy.

這是 Matt Hettwer，取代 Kevin McCarthy。

In the prepared remarks, you mentioned the potential for targeted divestiture opportunities on the same scale, as food ingredients.

在準備好的評論中，您提到了與食品原料同等規模的針對性剝離機會的可能性。

Would you consider looking at your other JVs there, maybe something along the lines of the Fairway Methanol JV?

您是否考慮在那裡尋找其他合資企業，例如類似 Fairway 甲醇合資企業？

Yes.

是的。

Look, Matt, I would just say we really never comment on what specific assets or processes that we're in.

瞧，馬特，我只想說，我們從來沒有評論過我們所處的具體資產或流程。

We are actively working multiple opportunities now on various assets.

我們目前正在積極地為各種資產尋找多種機會。

We've always been very clear that if our assets are worth more to someone else than they are to us, we are open to look at divestment.

我們一直都很清楚，如果我們的資產對別人來說比對我們更有價值，我們願意考慮撤資。

And of course, the timing of that is unpredictable.

當然，其時間尚無法預測。

So I can't comment on any specifics.

因此我無法對任何具體細節發表評論。

Yes.

是的。

The only thing I'd add is, we have stated that we do like having an integration in methanol somewhere between about 40% and 50% of our total needs.

我唯一想補充的是，我們已經表示過，我們確實希望將甲醇納入到我們總需求的 40% 到 50% 左右。

And we think that gives us, kind of a nice balance from being in the market, much like we, articulated we're now doing with nylon.

我們認為這為我們在市場上提供了良好的平衡，就像我們現在對尼龍所做的那樣。

We like being able to buy and make a little bit and be in the market, for a portion of that.

我們希望能夠購買和製造一點點，然後將其中的一部分投入市場。

For methanol, we consistently - relook at what that right balance is.

對於甲醇，我們不斷重新審視正確的平衡點。

And we've, we've landed right in that kind of 40% to 50%.

而我們已經達到 40% 到 50% 的水平了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just a quick one, you paid down $500 million, excuse me, $500 million in debt in the second quarter.

然後我簡單問一下，你在第二季償還了 5 億美元，對不起，是 5 億美元的債務。

Now looking at another $500 million in the third, how do you expect that to trend in the fourth quarter?

現在看看第三季的另外 5 億美元，您預期第四季的趨勢如何？

Are you talking interest expense?

您說的是利息費用嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

I would there's some moving parts in there.

我希望那裡面有一些活動的部件。

There's some short-term revolver draw and there is debt paydown.

有一些短期循環信貸提取和債務償還。

When you look at it, some of those bonds that we're paying down have really low coupons.

如果你看一下，你會發現我們正在償還的一些債券的票面利率確實很低。

One of the maturities was swapped down to 1%.

其中一個期限的利率被下調至1%。

At the same time, you've got cash that you're using to pay that down.

同時，您還有現金可以用來償還債務。

That's actually making really good rates.

這實際上是一個非常好的利率。

So, I do expect a decline in interest, a slight decline in the second half of the year.

因此，我確實預計興趣會下降，今年下半年會略有下降。

I'd say in both Q3 and Q4, the interest expense on a net basis should be a few million lower, than you see in Q2.

我想說，無論是第三季還是第四季度，淨利息支出都應該比第二季低幾百萬美元。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

In your prepared remarks, you talked about expansion between pricing raw materials and EM in the third quarter.

在您準備好的發言中，您談到了第三季原物料定價與新興市場的擴張。

Do you need to raise prices to achieve that, or raises due to cheaper layers of raw materials inventory?

是否需要提高價格才能實現這一目標，或者由於原材料庫存越來越便宜而提高價格？

Aleksey our focus is really on, kind of controlling the things that we can control as Lori mentioned earlier, and launching new projects from our pipeline model.

Aleksey，我們的重點實際上是控制我們可以控制的事情，正如 Lori 之前提到的，以及從我們的管道模型中啟動新的專案。

As Lori mentioned, we are assuming very similar landscape in Q3 overall to what we saw in Q2.

正如 Lori 所提到的，我們假設第三季的整體情況與第二季的情況非常相似。

So, we're not necessarily baking that in to our base.

所以，我們不一定要把它融入我們的基礎中。

It really is about the raw materials flowing through and also as we launch new projects and new opportunities, getting a mix uplift from that.

這其實與原料的流動有關，而且當我們推出新項目、新機會時，也會從中獲得混合提升。

So I see that being the larger portion of margin expansion.

因此，我認為這是利潤率擴大的較大部分。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And on Clear Lake expansion, can you just clarify how much do you expect it to contribute this year to your EBIT, given all the challenges in total versus your $100 million target?

關於 Clear Lake 擴建項目，您能否說明一下，考慮到總共面臨的所有挑戰，相對於您 1 億美元的目標，您預計它今年將為貴公司的息稅前利潤貢獻多少？

And then how much can we expect next year, assuming the margin picture does not change?

那麼，假設利潤率情況不變，我們明年可以預期多少呢？

Yes.

是的。

Look, Aleksey, I would expect about half roughly this year and then, the other half next year in addition.

你看，阿列克謝，我預計今年大約會有一半，另外一半將在明年完成。

Thanks a lot, Lori.

非常感謝，Lori。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

This is Yuzan for Frank.

這是 Yuzan 為 Frank 所做的。

First question around the lowered CapEx, that $400 million to $450 million range, how much of that is maintenance CapEx?

關於降低資本支出的第一個問題，即 4 億至 4.5 億美元的範圍，其中有多少是維護資本支出？

And I just want to confirm I heard correctly that the early look on 2025 is calling for a similar range?

我只是想確認我聽到的是否正確，對 2025 年的早期預測是否也要求類似的範圍？

Yes.

是的。

What we said in the past is our maintenance right now, most years is going to run between $300 million and $350 million.

我們過去說過，我們現在的維護費用在大多數年份將花費 3 億至 3.5 億美元。

And then the balance of capital we would spend each year is going to be for productivity and growth.

然後，我們每年花費的資本餘額將用於提高生產力和實現成長。

So really kind of the earnings growth piece of it.

這實際上就是獲利成長的一部分。

I would just kind of remind you that as we've said historically.

我只是想提醒你，正如我們在歷史上所說的。

We have been able to generate a high-teens low 20% return our entire bucket of capital.

我們已經能夠從我們的全部資本中產生 20% 左右的回報率。

So that tends to be we do focus on returns overall on all of our capital, but maintenance is in that $300 million and $350 million range.

因此，我們往往關注所有資本的整體回報，但維護費用在 3 億美元至 3.5 億美元之間。

Got it and I know that the synergies for the first half came in around $40 million.

明白了，我知道上半年的綜效約為 4000 萬美元。

Just curious what gives you guys the confidence that it will more than double in the second half of the year to reach that $150 million level?

我很好奇，是什麼讓你們有信心今年下半年它將成長一倍以上，達到 1.5 億美元的水平？

Yes it's really the run rate that we're on and the actions that we've taken.

是的，這確實是我們的運行速度和我們採取的行動。

I mean most of the synergies this year are on the cost side of the equation.

我的意思是今年的大部分協同效應都發生在成本方面。

There are some revenue synergies as I alluded to earlier, but it's mainly cost and the actions that we've taken.

正如我之前提到的，存在一些收入協同效應，但主要是成本和我們採取的行動。

We made several announcements around our manufacturing footprint.

我們圍繞著我們的製造足跡發布了幾份公告。

Those are rolling in.

這些正在滾滾而來。

The Uen trop facility has been shutdown, and we're kind of ramping up servicing customers from other locations now.

Uen trop 設施已經關閉，我們現在正在增加對其他地點客戶的服務。

We'll have the next site, which will come out of the network here in the fourth quarter.

我們將會在第四季度建立下一個站點，並將其從網路中推出。

And so, with some of those announcements as well as some of the actions we've taken on the functional side of things, such as implementation of our IT systems on an integrated basis.

因此，透過發布一些公告以及我們在功能方面採取的一些行動，例如在綜合基礎上實施我們的 IT 系統。

The benefits of that really were always more second half weighted than first half weighted.

這樣做的好處確實總是後半部比前半部更明顯。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you guys.

謝謝你們。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

It's David Huang here for Dave.

我是戴夫·黃 (David Huang)，代表戴夫。

I guess you noted lower level participation in spot activity in both acetyls and tow.

我想您已經注意到乙醯基和絲胺酸的現場活動參與程度較低。

What percentage did you sell to the spot market before the outage, and I guess how should we think about the ramp of those activities in second half?

在停電之前，您向現貨市場銷售了多少百分比的產品，我想我們應該如何看待這些活動在下半年的成長？

Overall, each product line has a different kind of percentage that's weighted towards spot versus contract, and each region is a little bit different.

整體而言，每條產品線都有不同的百分比，即現貨與合約的權重不同，而且每個地區都略有不同。

I would say on the acetate tow side of things, things are a little lower percentage that is spot versus contract.

我想說，就醋酸纖維絲束而言，現貨比例相對於合約比例較低。

Most of that business is contract.

大部分業務都是合約業務。

In our other product lines in acetic acid VAM emulsions for example it's different by region.

以我們其他的醋酸 VAM 乳液產品線為例，其產品線因地區而異。

And so, I think just with the constraints that we had, due to some of the supplier outages.

所以，我認為只是由於一些供應商停產，我們遇到了一些限制。

We just - we didn't have the same flexibility that we typically do, to be able to flex our value chain in the Western Hemisphere, which limited some of those opportunities.

我們只是 - 我們沒有像往常一樣的靈活性，無法在西半球調整我們的價值鏈，這限制了其中的一些機會。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then medical can you explain the other timing impacting the quarter.

然後是醫療方面，您能解釋一下影響該季度的其他時間嗎？

And I think some of your peers are still talking about continued destocking medical.

我認為您的一些同行仍在談論繼續削減醫療庫存。

I guess how has applications outside of implants performed in the quarter?

我想問一下本季植入物以外的應用表現如何？

It's been very stable.

它一直非常穩定。

Our medical business it has been a key growth area for us.

我們的醫療業務一直是我們一個重要的成長領域。

It has been an area focused really around growing in the areas where we can be successful, and picking some of the winning spaces.

這一直是一個真正專注於我們能夠成功的領域的發展，並選擇一些成功的空間。

We've talked a lot about implants.

我們已經討論了很多關於植入物的事情。

We've also talked a lot about drug delivery, continuous glucose monitoring.

我們也討論了許多有關藥物傳遞和持續血糖監測的問題。

A lot of different mega trends there that have been useful for our polymers.

許多不同的大趨勢都對我們的聚合物有用。

And we've been working these opportunities for a long period of time.

我們長期以來一直在努力爭取這些機會。

Our medical implant business in general certainly is getting better each year, but you are going to have some fluctuations from quarter-to-quarter.

總體而言，我們的醫療植入物業務每年都在好轉，但每季都會出現一些波動。

So I said that's really not demand related it's just kind of more normal order patterns and our business outside of implants has been extremely stable and growing.

所以我說這實際上與需求無關，而只是一種更正常的訂單模式，而且我們在植入物之外的業務一直非常穩定且不斷增長。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Morning Lori.

早上好，Lori。

Lori, a couple of quarters ago in your prepared remarks you guys talked about sort of maximizing the make versus buy flexibility at Celanese.

洛里，幾個季度前，在你們的準備好的發言中，你們談到了最大限度地提高塞拉尼斯的自主製造與購買的靈活性。

Particularly now in light of the force majeure on the acetate/VAM side of things, is there a sort of heightened level of urgency around that?

特別是現在考慮到醋酸纖維/VAM 方面的不可抗力，這方面的迫切性是否會有所提升？

I mean how are, you how are you thinking about that and what form will that take on a go-forward basis?

我的意思是，您對此有何看法，以及未來將採取什麼形式？

I don't think what we've experienced Hassan would change our view.

我認為哈桑所經歷的一切不會改變我們的觀點。

I mean we always want to have the flexibility.

我的意思是我們總是希望擁有靈活性。

If you look at this past quarter, we were unable to make because of our supplier issues in some instances.

如果你看看上個季度，你會發現，在某些情況下，我們因供應商問題而無法生產。

And so we actually went into the market to buy, to the extent we could, but at a higher cost.

因此，我們實際上盡可能地進入市場進行採購，但成本較高。

I mean, that's not ideal but our first priority is to keep our customers whole and to meet our contractual commitments with our customers.

我的意思是，這並不理想，但我們的首要任務是保證客戶的完整，並履行與客戶的合約承諾。

So in reliability situations or turnarounds or whatever having that ability is good.

因此，在可靠性情況或週轉或其他任何情況下，擁有這種能力都是好的。

And then the other side of that is like we've seen in nylon when the margins for raw polymer got so low, it is really helpful that we had taken the steps to shutdown Uen trop and put ourselves where we could be buying raw polymer on the market, in what was a very, low-priced situation, certainly lower than we would have been able to make it ourselves.

另一方面，就像我們在尼龍產業看到的那樣，當原料聚合物的利潤率變得如此之低時，我們採取措施關閉 Uen trop 並將自己置於可以在市場上購買原料聚合物的位置，這真的很有幫助，那時的價格非常低，肯定低於我們自己生產的價格。

So, again, I don't think our view is changing at all in terms of wanting to always have that ability to make or buy depending on the economic situation.

因此，我再說一遍，我認為我們的觀點根本沒有改變，我們仍然希望根據經濟狀況擁有製造或購買的能力。

And also to help us through periods of operational shortages.

並幫助我們度過營運短缺的時期。

Understood.

明白了。

Understood.

明白了。

Extremely helpful.

極為有幫助。

And just as a follow-up, I know you've made a couple of comments about the undifferentiated sort of nylon side of the market.

作為後續問題，我知道您對市場上無差別的尼龍方面發表了一些評論。

Can you sort of dig a little deeper for us on, what the goings-on are with regards to supply-demand fundamentals over there?

您能否為我們深入介紹那裡的供需基本面情況？

I mean, you obviously flagged the whole notion of Chinese capacity being below the cost curve right now.

我的意思是，你顯然提到了目前中國產能低於成本曲線的整個概念。

So, how do you see this year and over the next couple of years supply-demand dynamics planning out?

那麼，您認為今年以及未來幾年的供需動態將如何發展？

Scott Richardson

史考特·理查森

I mean look nylon is no different than the rest of our portfolio in engineering materials.

我的意思是，尼龍看起來與我們工程材料產品組合中的其他產品沒有什麼不同。

You kind of have three categories of business there.

那裡有三類業務。

You have a standard-grade category.

您有一個標準等級的類別。

You have a kind of a spec-in category where you have more competition.

您擁有一種規格類別，其中競爭更為激烈。

Then you have the really specialty new applications area.

那你就擁有了真正專業的新應用領域。

And it's really important that we play in all three buckets there just because customers oftentimes are buying all three.

我們在這三個方面都投入確實很重要，因為客戶經常同時購買這三種產品。

And we want to make sure we're also filling out our assets.

我們也想確保我們的資產也得到充實。

And, so it is while the competitiveness in the standard grades is definitely there's still really good opportunities kind of in that spec-in and specialty area.

因此，雖然標準等級的競爭力確實很強，但在規格和專業領域仍然存在著很好的機會。

I mean,just a simple data point in the first half of the year, we actually closed over 400 projects in our nylon business using the pipeline model.

我的意思是，僅舉今年上半年的一個簡單數據點，我們實際上使用管道模型完成了尼龍業務中的 400 多個項目。

That's a significant step up from the second half of last year.

這比去年下半年有了顯著的進步。

And so it's a good proof point that what we're doing there and really the commercial team's focus on working with customers and building really nice differentiated business for the long-term is going to pay off.

因此，這是一個很好的證明，證明我們在那裡所做的事情以及商業團隊真正專注於與客戶合作以及長期打造真正良好的差異化業務將會獲得回報。

We're going to have to participate in the basic blocking and tackling part of the marketplace.

我們必須參與市場的基本阻止和處理部分。

But having that flexibility Lori just talked about is so critical in us kind of building this more contemporary nylon model that can be overall successful and can continue to grow.

但是，擁有 Lori 剛才談到的靈活性對於我們建立這種更現代的尼龍模型至關重要，這種模型可以取得全面成功並持續發展。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Salvator Tiano。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Yes, thank you very much.

是的，非常感謝。

So, firstly I want to understand, I think on the $25 million package that, you mentioned the timing as well as some inventory changes that will weigh on Q3 in engineering materials.

所以，首先我想了解，我認為關於您提到的 2500 萬美元計劃的時間安排以及一些庫存變化將對工程材料第三季度產生影響。

Does this mean that you were essentially producing above sales in the first half and therefore what this $25 million while this is a headwind to Q3, it was actually a pull forward effectively in H1 for the full year?

這是否意味著你們上半年的產量基本上高於銷售額，因此這 2500 萬美元雖然對第三季度來說是一個阻力，但實際上卻對上半年全年產生了有效的拉動動作？

Is that how we should think about it?

我們該這樣思考嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So a large chunk of that is some of the footprint actions that we've taken.

其中很大一部分是我們採取的一些足跡行動。

We've been building inventory now for a number of quarters.

我們已經累積了好幾季的庫存。

So I wouldn't look at it as kind of being a big benefit in Q2 in particular.

因此，我不會將其視為第二季的巨大優勢。

It's kind of been a gradual uptick.

這是一種逐漸上升的過程。

We also just have some kind of normal, we have certain products that have campaign runs.

我們也有一些正常的活動，我們的某些產品有促銷活動。

And so, you'll have a little bit of an uptick from time-to-time, and then a down tick.

因此，您會不時經歷一點上升，然後又經歷一點下降。

So, I wouldn't look at it as being materially different for that piece than what we've typically seen.

因此，我認為這件作品與我們通常看到的並沒有實質上的不同。

Okay.

好的。

Perfect.

完美的。

And the other thing I want to understand is that if I heard correctly, I think there was a comment that next year's synergies will be similar to this year's levels, which I believe we're still targeting $150 million.

我想了解的另一件事是，如果我沒有聽錯的話，我認為有一條評論說明年的協同效應將與今年的水平相似，我相信我們仍然以 1.5 億美元為目標。

Firstly, is that correct?

首先，這正確嗎？

And secondly if I go back to the initial co-synergies targets from your M&M slides, I believe there was more like a $50 million, $60 million, $70 million figure left.

其次，如果我回到您的 M&M 幻燈片中最初的協同效應目標，我相信剩下的數字更像是 5,000 萬美元、6,000 萬美元、7,000 萬美元。

So how do you get to a number that's more than double that next year?

那麼如何才能讓明年的數字增加一倍以上呢？

Yes.

是的。

So let me clarify itself, because probably, my comments weren't clear before.

所以讓我澄清一下，因為可能之前我的評論並不清楚。

If you look at '23, we had $100 million of synergies than if you look at '24, $150 million.

如果你看看23年，我們的綜效是1億美元，而如果你看看24年，我們的綜效是1.5億美元。

And so my comment was, look, I don't have an exact number yet for '25, because we've been very focused on '24.

所以我的評論是，看，我還沒有 25 年的確切數字，因為我們一直非常關注 24 年。

But I think our synergy should be based on the actions that we're taking here this year in the same range as the last two years.

但我認為我們的協同作用應該以我們今年採取的與過去兩年相同範圍的行動為基礎。

So somewhere in that range.

所以在那個範圍內的某個地方。

And then the remainder of the step-up in '25 is really the improved performance of acetyls tills with no force majeure, a full year of CLK productivity.

然後，'25 年剩餘的升級實際上就是在沒有不可抗力的情況下乙醯苯胺收割機性能的提高，即整整一年的 CLK 生產力。

And then we should have some further interest rate reductions.

然後我們應該進一步降低利率。

So, those are the things that I know about for 2025.

所以，這些就是我所了解的 2025 年的事。

But as I said, it's still too early to give any number with confidence on 2025.

但正如我所說，現在就確定 2025 年的任何數字還為時過早。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Good morning.

早安.

I just want to confirm that the midpoint of your outlook for the back half of the year is predicated, it looks like it's predicated on your automotive volumes being up like mid-single-digits, call it 2%, 3% above a flat to slightly positive auto build rate.

我只是想確認一下，您對今年下半年的預期中點似乎是基於汽車銷量增長中等個位數，也就是 2% 至 3%，高於持平或略微正的汽車生產率。

Is that right?

是嗎？

We are expecting some uptick.

我們預計會出現一些上漲。

Some moderate volume increase, I would say, in volumes into automotive.

我想說，汽車產業的產量會有一些適度的成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Patrick Cunningham。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

You talked a little bit about the weaker non-contracted sales for tow.

您談到了拖車非合約銷售疲軟的情況。

How meaningful is this in terms of typical to sales?

就典型銷售而言這有何意義？

How is the contract side of the business performing?

合約方面的業務表現如何？

And what are your medium-term supply and demand expectations for the tow business?

您對拖車業務的中期供需預期是什麼？

I mean, tow business has been very stable, Patrick.

我的意思是，拖車業務一直非常穩定，帕特里克。

And the contracted piece of the business has performed as expected.

合約部分業務表現符合預期。

Again, as I mentioned earlier, the noncontract part is a small percentage.

再說一次，正如我之前提到的，非合約部分只佔很小的比例。

It's just we did see a little bit of inventory reduction from our customers in that part of the sector during the second quarter.

只是我們在第二季度確實看到該行業該部分客戶的庫存有所減少。

So, it we don't expect it necessarily to continue going forward.

因此，我們並不認為這種趨勢一定會持續下去。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe just within nylon, you touched on this a little bit, but can you just talk about the contemporary business model here, how you feel it performs, how you're maybe thinking about the footprint, if we see further pressure from here?

然後也許只是在尼龍中，您稍微提到了這一點，但您能否談談這裡的當代商業模式，您認為它的表現如何，如果我們看到進一步的壓力，您可能會如何考慮其足跡？

And on the flip side, would you put incremental costs back into this business if demand improves, or the make versus buy economics change?

另一方面，如果需求改善或自製與購買的經濟模式發生變化，你會把增量成本重新投入這項業務嗎？

Look, we're really proud of the team.

看，我們真的為這個團隊感到驕傲。

I mean the team has come together and embraced a different way of operating here.

我的意思是團隊已經團結起來並接受了不同的運作方式。

And we're taking the ideas really across each function in the organization to really go and build out a model that we can be proud of that can deliver greater than 25% EBITDA in any economic environment and that's our target.

我們正在將這些想法真正運用到組織的每個職能部門，真正地建立一個讓我們感到自豪的模型，該模型可以在任何經濟環境下實現超過 25% 的 EBITDA，這就是我們的目標。

We're early innings.

我們剛開始比賽。

I mean we've had some good success.

我的意思是我們取得了一些成功。

We're seeing margin expansion, as we talked about.

正如我們剛才所說，我們看到利潤率正在擴大。

We're seeing nice wins coming from our project pipeline, but we have to continue to work the cost side of the equation.

我們看到我們的專案取得了不錯的成果，但我們必須繼續努力解決成本問題。

We have to continue to focus on really bringing our organization together to embrace the pipeline model and continue to elevate the returns that we're getting overall from the business.

我們必須繼續致力於真正將我們的組織團結起來，接受管道模型，並繼續提高我們從業務中獲得的整體回報。

So depending on what the market gives us, we're going to have to pit it, much like we do in other parts of our business, both in acetyls and EM.

因此，根據市場提供給我們的情況，我們將必須對其進行競爭，就像我們在其他業務領域（包括乙醯基和 EM）所做的那樣。

And it's building those muscles to be able to adapt as things change from quarter-to-quarter.

它正在鍛鍊這些能力，以便能夠適應每個季度的情況變化。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from John Roberts with Mizuho Securities.

下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的約翰羅伯茲。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just going back to nylon and China here.

這裡我們回到尼龍和中國的話題。

They have a lot of producers who serve both the plastics and fiber markets.

他們有很多生產商同時服務於塑膠和纖維市場。

And given the weak carpet and textile markets, are you seeing some of that China nylon shift from fiber to plastics.

鑑於地毯和紡織品市場疲軟，您是否看到中國尼龍產品從纖維轉向塑膠？

I know some applications can't switch, but I thought there was enough that could switch that maybe that would be pressuring the market.

我知道有些應用程式無法切換，但我認為有足夠的應用程式可以切換，這可能會給市場帶來壓力。

John, that's really not where we're seeing the pressure from.

約翰，我們的壓力其實並不是來自於此。

I mean there's a lot of consistent players in the plastics market.

我的意思是塑膠市場有很多穩定的參與者。

So I wouldn't say that's been a material issue.

所以我不認為這是一個實質問題。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Diego, we'll make the next question, our last one, please.

迭戈，請問我們下一個問題，也是最後一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our final question for today comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

Please state your question.

請陳述你的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So Lori, I think you said of the original $150 million that you expected to get from lower raw materials kind of working through, you're going to get about half that.

所以 Lori，我想你說過，你原本預計從原物料價格下跌中獲得的 1.5 億美元，透過這種做法，你將只能獲得這個數字的一半左右。

Does the other half get pushed out into 2025?

另一半會延後到 2025 年嗎？

Or is it really just an opportunity that just given the circumstances you're just not going to be able to capture, I guess, how should we be thinking about that?

或者這真的只是一個機會，只是在特定情況下你無法抓住，我想，我們該如何看待這個問題？

I would think about it as we weren't able to capture it here.

我會考慮它，因為我們無法在這裡捕捉到它。

There's no guarantee it will be there next year.

沒有人能保證它明年還在那裡。

If you think about the cost of inventory we're building right now will be what we see in the first half of next year at least in the Engineered Materials.

如果你考慮我們現在正在建造的庫存成本，至少在工程材料領域，我們明年上半年會看到同樣的成本。

So I can't count on that for next year.

所以我不能指望明年能實現這一點。

I mean, we just have to see how cost of inventory goes for the rest of this year.

我的意思是，我們只需要看看今年剩餘時間的庫存成本如何變化。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And then, I guess with regard to the acetic acid capacity that came on in China, the two new world-scale plants, I think like one of the issues was that you didn't see a whole lot of the downstream assets come on yet, and I think that was putting pressure on acetic acid prices.

然後，我想就中國新增的醋酸產能，即兩家新的世界級工廠而言，我認為其中一個問題是你還沒有看到大量下游資產投入使用，我認為這給醋酸價格帶來了壓力。

Can you give us an update as to whether or not those downstream assets have come on yet?

您能否向我們介紹這些下游資產是否已經開始投入使用？

And if they if they haven't does that mute the ability for growth, or improvement in the market even as China construction starts to come back on and some of the downstream demand starts to come back on?

如果他們沒有這樣做，是否會削弱市場的成長能力或改善能力，即使中國建築業開始復甦，部分下游需求也開始恢復？

I guess how should we be thinking about that?

我想我們應該怎麼思考這個問題呢？

So John, some of the uses that those plants were expected to serve were things like caprolactam, which is new, PVOH, EVA, I'm not sure about the capital action plan, if I'm honest.

所以約翰，這些工廠預計會用於生產諸如新產品己內酰胺、PVOH、EVA 之類的產品，說實話，我不確定資本行動計劃。

But PVOH, I think is up and okay.

但我認為 PVOH 已經上漲並且沒問題。

EVA is up from what we know, but honestly EVA demand right now or not EVA demand but utilization of the EVA plants has gone to 7% or below from what we know.

據我們所知，EVA 有所上升，但老實說，目前 EVA 需求或不是 EVA 需求，而是 EVA 工廠的利用率據我們所知已降至 7% 或以下。

So again, just because of the softness right now in solar panels.

再次強調，這只是因為目前太陽能板的柔軟度。

And so, I think while it may be up, we're not seeing those plants consuming the volume of VAM that we would normally expect.

因此，我認為儘管 VAM 數量可能有所增加，但我們並沒有看到這些工廠消耗的 VAM 數量達到我們通常預期的水平。

Yes.

是的。

John, really, the real cause of that is the end-user demand, particularly paints, coatings, construction and some of the solar space, as Lori mentioned, are just are weak.

約翰，實際上，真正的原因是最終用戶的需求，特別是油​​漆、塗料、建築和一些太陽能領域的需求，正如洛里所提到的，都很疲軟。

And so yes, while we've seen capacity come on in acetic acid and pricing kind of up and down, our margins have been largely stable now for quite a while.

因此，是的，雖然我們看到乙酸的產能在增加，價格也在上下波動，但我們的利潤率在相當長一段時間內基本上保持穩定。

We've seen compression in VAM margins because that construction sector as well as solar has been so weak.

由於建築業和太陽能產業非常疲軟，我們看到 VAM 利潤率受到壓縮。

So I think that's more of kind of where that compression has been seen.

所以我認為這更像是一種壓縮現象。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks very much for the color.

非常感謝這個顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I'll now hand the floor back to Bill Cunningham for closing remarks.

現在我將發言權交還給比爾·坎寧安，請他作結束語。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'd like to thank everyone for listening in today.

我們感謝大家今天的收聽。

As always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions.

像往常一樣，通話結束後我們仍可以回答任何後續問題。

Diego, please go ahead and close out the call.

迭戈，請繼續，結束通話。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

All parties may now disconnect.

各方現在都可以斷開連線。

Have a good day.

祝你有美好的一天。