塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Celanese Q3 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Brandon Ayache, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2023 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係部的布蘭登‧阿亞奇 (Brandon Ayache)。請繼續。

Thanks, Kevin. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，凱文。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫布蘭登‧阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache)，投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk；和首席財務官斯科特·理查森。

Celanese distributed its third quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release as well as the prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

塞拉尼斯透過美國商業資訊發布了第三季財報報告，並在昨天下午在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了準備好的評論。提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些衡量標準的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表。今天的演講還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，這些語言可以在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給 SEC。

Before opening it up for your questions, let me turn it over to Lori to provide a few introductory comments.

在向大家提出問題之前，讓我將其轉交給 Lori，以提供一些介紹性評論。

Thanks, Brandon. So we've done and announced a lot recently. So I just wanted to take a minute or two to emphasize again exactly what we are all working so hard to achieve at Celanese.

謝謝，布蘭登。所以我們最近做了很多事情並宣布了很多事情。所以我只想花一兩分鐘再次強調我們在塞拉尼斯努力工作要實現的目標。

I can confidently say that at no point in our history, has there been a greater opportunity for Celanese to deliver significant earnings growth as in the next few years. In the Acetyl Chain, we continue to enhance our earnings power and optionality with projects like the acetic acid expansion at Clear Lake, and the methanol expansion also at Clear Lake which will dramatically strengthen our sustainable product offerings.

我可以自信地說，在我們的歷史上，塞拉尼斯從來沒有像未來幾年那樣有更大的機會實現顯著的獲利成長。在乙醯鏈領域，我們透過 Clear Lake 的醋酸擴建和 Clear Lake 的甲醇擴建等項目繼續增強我們的盈利能力和選擇性，這將極大地增強我們的可持續產品供應。

Of course, in Engineering Materials, we continue to integrate and synergize the M&M acquisition, which transforms EM into the preeminent global specialty materials provider. This important and valuable work has been made more challenging in the demand backdrop that remains exceptionally weak and volatile. Our visibility into future macro conditions is limited. Regardless, our teams have worked tremendously hard to deliver 3 consecutive quarters of earnings growth since closing the M&M acquisition and to position us to meaningfully exceed our full year objective to reduce net debt by $1 billion in 2023.

當然，在工程材料領域，我們繼續整合和協同對 M&M 的收購，將 EM 轉變為卓越的全球特殊材料供應商。在需求仍然異常疲軟和波動的背景下，這項重要且有價值的工作變得更具挑戰性。我們對未來宏觀狀況的了解是有限的。無論如何，自從完成M&M 收購以來，我們的團隊付出了巨大的努力，實現了連續3 個季度的盈利增長，並使我們能夠顯著超越全年目標，即在2023 年將淨債務減少10 億美元。

The work has not been easy, and I sincerely thank each of our employees for their individual contributions and dedication. Quite frankly, while the work is moving forward at pace, the macro environment has temporarily masked some of the underlying financial benefit of our actions to strengthen our business. But we remain resolute in continuing to take decisive and controllable actions.

工作並不輕鬆，我衷心感謝每一位員工的個人貢獻和奉獻。坦白說，雖然工作正在穩步推進，但宏觀環境暫時掩蓋了我們加強業務行動所帶來的一些潛在財務利益。但我們仍然堅定地繼續採取果斷、可控制的行動。

Our most recent actions, including the announced changes to our leadership team and manufacturing footprint, are evidence of our ongoing commitment to drive earnings growth and execute against our deleveraging plan. The purpose behind the changes I've made in our executive leadership team is to enhance the alignment of our individual strengths and experience to accelerate and deliver on the many value-enhancing opportunities before us. Scott, Chuck and Ashley are exceptionally well prepared for their new roles, and I am confident these changes will immediately enhance the value we drive as a collective leadership team.

我們最近的行動，包括宣布的領導團隊和製造足跡的變化，證明了我們持續致力於推動獲利成長和執行去槓桿化計劃。我對執行領導團隊的變革的目的是加強我們個人優勢和經驗的結合，以加速和實現擺在我們面前的許多增值機會。史考特、查克和艾希莉為他們的新角色做好了充分的準備，我相信這些變化將立即提高我們作為集體領導團隊所推動的價值。

I speak for our leadership team and broader Celanese in saying we are fully engaged and committed to delivering on the opportunities before us.

我代表我們的領導團隊和更廣泛的塞拉尼斯表示，我們正在全力投入並致力於抓住擺在我們面前的機會。

With that, Kevin, let me turn it back over to you to open it up for questions.

凱文，接下來，讓我把它轉回給你，供你提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Mike Leithead from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

Great. And congrats to Scott, Chuck and Ashley on the new roles. Lori, I wanted to start on Engineered Materials pricing. I think in the prepared remarks, you made a comment that pressure has widened throughout the year, but nothing indicates that structural. So can you maybe just talk a bit more about your confidence here or maybe what you've seen in previous down cycles versus now? Just what gives you the confidence in making that comment?

偉大的。祝賀斯科特、查克和阿什利擔任新角色。洛里，我想從工程材料定價開始。我認為在準備好的演講中，您評論說壓力在這一年裡一直在擴大，但沒有任何跡象表明這是結構性的。那麼，您能否在這裡多談談您的信心，或者您在之前的下行週期與現在相比所看到的情況？是什麼讓您有信心發表這樣的評論？

Yes. If I think about pricing, and again, I'll split it into two. What we've really seen is pretty good price stability and differentiated products. What we've seen them is more of the volume impact there associated with consumer durable, consumer electronics, there, we've just seen a pretty significant volume decline as we've seen consumer demand come off this year as people have shifted their spending to more services and experiences.

是的。如果我再次考慮定價，我會將其分成兩部分。我們真正看到的是相當好的價格穩定性和差異化的產品。我們看到的更多的是與耐用消費品、消費性電子產品相關的銷售影響，我們剛剛看到銷量大幅下降，因為我們看到今年消費者需求下降，因為人們改變了支出更多服務和體驗。

Where we've really seen the price pressure is for more standard grade materials where we're seeing quite a bit of length in the industry in terms of supply, softer demand and everyone having to take price action to come down. What I would say is one of the reasons we're taking the steps that we've announced around Uentrop and other is really to better position our supply with the current demand scenario by shutting down some of our higher cost operating capacity filling those customer needs with lower cost capacity we already have or even purchases, if that's lower.

我們真正看到價格壓力的是更多標準級材料，我們看到該行業的供應時間較長，需求疲軟，每個人都必須採取價格行動來降低價格。我想說的是，我們在Uentrop 等地區採取的措施的原因之一實際上是透過關閉一些成本較高的營運能力來滿足這些客戶的需求，從而更好地根據當前的需求情況定位我們的供應。我們已經擁有或甚至購買了較低的成本能力（如果較低的話）。

And then in the future, as we see demand start to come back to what I would consider a more normalized level, we should be able to provide that demand from other assets that we already have in our network and through no and low-cost debottlenecks.

然後在未來，當我們看到需求開始回到我認為更正常化的水平時，我們應該能夠透過我們網路中已有的其他資產並透過無且低成本的去瓶頸來滿足該需求。

So I think we're in a kind of unique position structurally with very little exports out of China. A very soft, soft environment in Europe and feel confident in time, it will come up. I mean, auto is a great example. Auto has been very solid this year. We expect that to continue. Medical has been solid. So I think we really are just seeing a reflection of consumer preference and consumer spending, which we believe is temporary and off the highs that we saw in '21.

所以我認為我們在結構上處於一種獨特的地位，從中國的出口很少。歐洲的環境很軟，感覺很軟，到時候有信心，它就會上來。我的意思是，汽車就是一個很好的例子。今年汽車業表現非常強勁。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。醫療一直很紮實。因此，我認為我們確實只是看到了消費者偏好和消費者支出的反映，我們認為這是暫時的，並且低於我們在 21 年看到的高點。

And then a question for Scott, maybe on free cash flow. I think in Lori's '24 outlook she laid out in the prepared remarks, maybe $300 million or $400 million of earnings improvement next year, you guys are probably getting a similar type of amount of working capital benefit this year. So as we think about free cash generation next year, is relatively flat year-on-year, a good starting point today? Or is there further working capital or other cash benefits you think you can get next year?

然後是斯科特的問題，也許是關於自由現金流。我認為，在洛里在準備好的演講中闡述的 24 年展望中，明年的盈利可能會提高 3 億美元或 4 億美元，你們今年可能會獲得類似數量的營運資金收益。那麼，當我們考慮明年的自由現金產生時，與去年同期相對持平，今天是一個很好的起點嗎？還是您認為明年可以獲得更多的營運資金或其他現金福利？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. We're going to work to ensure that as we see earnings growth that we put that as much to the bottom line of free cash flow as possible. We called out CapEx being $100 million lighter next year as well. I think the variable will be working capital. And it depends upon kind of what happens with raw material pricing as well as depending on kind of where sales are and what happens with the accounts receivable line.

是的。謝謝，麥克。我們將努力確保當我們看到獲利成長時，我們將其盡可能計入自由現金流的底線。我們稱明年的資本支出也將減少 1 億美元。我認為變數將是營運資金。這取決於原物料定價的情況​​、銷售情況以及應收帳款行的情況。

But we're going to do everything we can to continue to bring inventory down next year. There could be an opportunity for further reduction depending on what happens with demand as well as in the raw material landscape.

但明年我們將盡一切努力繼續降低庫存。根據需求情況以及原材料情況，可能有進一步減少的機會。

Next question is coming from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I think Eastman's filter tow profits are up I don't know, $225 million through the 9 months. There was no mention of filter tow in your remarks. How is that business doing? And how is it affecting the Acetyl Chain earnings?

我認為伊士曼的過濾絲束利潤成長了（我不知道），在 9 個月內成長了 2.25 億美元。您的評論中沒有提到過濾絲束。那家生意怎麼樣？它如何影響 Acetyl Chain 的收益？

Jeff, as you know, we are running that as an end-to-end chain now. We're treating tow as we do other downstream derivatives. What I would say is we're seeing similar impacts in tow. Now we are seeing in the second half a reset of contract pricing, which is bringing those margins down slightly from the first half, but that was anticipated with the way the contracts are set up. But I would say we're still on track to exceed the $245 million that we set out earlier this year as our target for sale.

傑夫，如你所知，我們現在正在將其作為端到端鏈運行。我們像對待其他下游衍生物一樣對待絲束。我想說的是，我們也看到了類似的影響。現在，我們在下半年看到合約定價的重新設定，這使得利潤率比上半年略有下降，但這是合約設定方式所預期的。但我想說，我們仍有望超過今年稍早設定的 2.45 億美元的銷售目標。

You're closing your German nylon facility. Is that about 15% of your nameplate capacity in nylon? And what utilization rate are you running at in nylon generally?

您將關閉您的德國尼龍工廠。這大約是您銘牌上尼龍產能的 15% 嗎？尼龍的利用率一般是多少？

Yes. So Uentrop actually is 1 of the 4 plants that we have for nylon and it represents right at 25% of our total capacity. I don't have the overall total utilization numbers in front of us. But I would characterize this, Jeff, as much like we've done with Palm and other assets where we've really worked on concentrating our footprint taking out either underutilized or less profitable assets in order to shift volume into lower cost, more profitable assets, getting more flexibility in our networks in terms of purchasing either of polymer or different raw materials, depending on where we produce, that's what we're trying to be able to hear with the Uentrop shutdown as -- we knew going into the deal that we believe that DuPont had excess capacity. Now that we've had some time to look at it, we believe shutting down the Uentrop is the best way to really adjust our cost basis on nylon while still maintaining compounding in Europe, which is necessary for our customers.

是的。因此，Uentrop 實際上是我們擁有的 4 家尼龍工廠之一，占我們總產能的 25%。我面前沒有整體的總利用率數據。但傑夫，我想描述這一點，就像我們對Palm 和其他資產所做的那樣，我們真正致力於集中我們的足跡，剔除未充分利用或利潤較低的資產，以便將數量轉移到成本更低、利潤更高的資產上，在購買聚合物或不同原材料方面，我們的網絡獲得更大的靈活性，具體取決於我們生產的地點，這就是我們試圖在Uentrop 關閉時聽到的消息，因為我們知道達成這項交易我們認為杜邦產能過剩。現在我們已經有一些時間來研究這個問題，我們相信關閉 Uentrop 是真正調整我們尼龍成本基礎的最佳方式，同時仍然保持歐洲的複合，這對我們的客戶來說是必要的。

But I would say this is very consistent with what you've seen us done over the last 10 or so years in Celanese where we've probably shut down over 15 facilities in the last 10 years as we've implemented these models.

但我想說，這與過去 10 年左右我們在塞拉尼斯所做的事情非常一致，在過去 10 年裡，我們可能關閉了超過 15 個設施，因為我們實施了這些模​​型。

Next question is coming from Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

You haven't told I need to do more math these days. So if I add up sort of your bridges that you gave for '24 and just use the lower end of the inventory stuff. It looks like a no volume growth, you could do $12 or better. Is that the right math? And then can you help us on what -- or how to frame up volume and inflation or deflation upside for '24?

你還沒告訴我這幾天需要做更多數學。因此，如果我將您在 24 年提供的橋樑類型加起來，然後僅使用庫存材料的較低端。看起來銷量沒有成長，你可以做 12 美元或更好。這是正確的數學嗎？那麼您能否幫助我們了解什麼或如何確定 24 世紀的交易量以及通膨或通貨緊縮的上行空間？

Yes, Mike, we laid out the various buckets. So I think you can do the math. I mean, just to reiterate, we do expect to get more than $150 million in additional M&M synergy. With some of the acceleration of the manufacturing footprint optimization. Hopefully, we can exceed that amount as well since we didn't have all of that baked in. We should get another $100 million once we get clear like acetic acid started up.

是的，麥克，我們佈置了各種桶子。所以我認為你可以算一下。我的意思是，重申一下，我們確實期望獲得超過 1.5 億美元的額外 M&M 協同效應。隨著製造足跡優化的一些加速。希望我們也能超過這個數額，因為我們還沒有把所有這些都考慮進去。一旦我們像乙酸一樣開始澄清，我們應該再獲得 1 億美元。

Debt service goes down by about $50 million. We'll have less inventory reduction next year, so less margin impact from that. And then I think, as you're saying, the big issue there is really going to be what is the benefit we see for flushing through higher cost inventory. And this could be a very big number. It will depend on what happens with raws. As you know, we're in quite a volatile raw material environment right now.

償債額減少約 5000 萬美元。明年我們的庫存減少量將減少，因此對利潤率的影響也較小。然後我認為，正如你所說，最大的問題實際上是我們看到的沖掉更高成本庫存的好處是什麼。這可能是一個非常大的數字。這將取決於原料的情況。如您所知，我們目前正處於一個非常不穩定的原料環境中。

And then what happens with demand going forward. If demand stays low, then I think these are the things we're focused on because these are what we can control. If demand goes up, obviously, we'll get more margin, but we will also probably see some increase again in working capital.

那麼未來的需求會發生什麼事。如果需求保持低位，那麼我認為這些就是我們關注的事情，因為這些是我們可以控制的。顯然，如果需求上升，我們將獲得更多利潤，但我們也可能看到營運資金再次增加。

So I would just say there's still a lot of volatility and uncertainty around next year, and that's why we're just really focusing on those big buckets that we outlined that are in our control.

所以我想說，明年仍然存在許多波動和不確定性，這就是為什麼我們真正關注我們概述的那些在我們控制範圍內的大桶。

Got it. And then when you think about 2024, what do you think could happen to China, Auto and some of your end markets? Any initial thoughts when you talk to customers of what the demand environment could be next year?

知道了。然後，當您想到 2024 年時，您認為中國、汽車和一些終端市場會發生什麼？當您與客戶談論明年的需求環境時，您有什麼初步想法嗎？

Yes. Again, if you can tell me what December is going to look like, maybe I'd be better at thinking about 2024. I mean things are very uncertain and volatile at this point. I would say on Auto, consistent with the forecast you're seeing on auto build, we expect to see some moderate growth in Auto, really across all sectors, a couple of percent. And our growth should track that.

是的。再說一次，如果你能告訴我 12 月會是什麼樣子，也許我會更好地思考 2024 年。我的意思是，目前情況非常不確定且不穩定。我想說的是，在汽車方面，與您對汽車製造的預測一致，我們預計汽車行業將出現一些溫和的增長，實際上是在所有行業中，增長幾個百分點。我們的成長應該遵循這一點。

We expect medical continue to be strong. I would say, based on conversations with customers, I would expect some moderate growth across next year as we start to see some demand coming back. But I would also say the timing of when that starts and the pace at which that happens is very uncertain.

我們預計醫療將持續強勁。我想說，根據與客戶的對話，隨著我們開始看到一些需求回升，我預計明年會出現溫和成長。但我還要說，這種情況開始的時間和發生的速度都非常不確定。

So certainly a lot less conviction at this point on next year than we might usually have at this point given the volatility we're seeing.

因此，考慮到我們所看到的波動性，明年這個時候的信心肯定會比通常的信心要少得多。

Next question today is coming from Josh Spector from UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Josh Spector。

So I wanted to follow up on the price cost or like the inventory or lower cost inventory that can flow through. I guess, Lori, you sound a bit more uncertain on that, but it still could be large I guess if you look at where pricing is in fourth quarter, is that a level if that holds, you would actually get a spread benefit into next year? Or do you need pricing to move up from here? Just wondering around the kind of moving parts there.

所以我想跟進價格成本或喜歡庫存或可以流通的較低成本庫存。我想，洛里，你對此聽起來有點不確定，但它仍然可能很大，我想如果你看看第四季度的定價情況，如果這個水平保持不變，你實際上會在下一個季度獲得利差收益年？或者您需要將定價從這裡提高？只是想知道那裡有哪些活動部件。

No. Look, even I think at the pricing we're seeing now, we are starting to see some pull through of that lower cost inventory, and we see that as a moderate impact on our quarter-on-quarter growth. So I think even at these pricing, we would expect to continue to see some portion of that pull-through.

不。看，即使我認為按照我們現在看到的定價，我們也開始看到低成本庫存有所恢復，我們認為這對我們的季度環比增長產生了適度的影響。因此，我認為即使按照這些定價，我們也預計將繼續看到部分拉動。

Obviously, if we saw pricing increase, that would help more, but we also have to consider what the price of raws going in, and we are seeing some upward pressure on raw materials this quarter as well.

顯然，如果我們看到價格上漲，那將會有更多幫助，但我們還必須考慮原材料的價格，而且本季原材料也存在一些上漲壓力。

But look, I would say in all cases, we expect some impact from that flushing through of higher cost inventory. It's just the magnitude will depend on raws as well as future pricing.

但我想說的是，在所有情況下，我們預計高成本庫存的沖刷會產生一些影響。只是其大小將取決於原材料以及未來的定價。

Okay. Yes. I guess just maybe to pin it there when you talk about it being the biggest bridge item, if pricing stays where it is, is that a true statement? Or does that come down?

好的。是的。我想當你談論它是最大的橋樑項目時，也許只是把它釘在那裡，如果定價保持不變，這是一個真實的說法嗎？或者這會下降嗎？

I would say pricing in raws stay where they are, that would still be a true statement.

我想說的是，原材料的定價保持不變，這仍然是一個真實的說法。

Next question today is coming from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

I just wanted to ask a couple of things. One, in Acetyls in the third quarter, there clearly was a benefit despite a bunch of headwinds from outages in Asia. So I'm wondering if you have any way of sort of sizing that in the third quarter and what you anticipate in the fourth quarter? It seems like there's some comments that you're still going to have some higher pricing flowing through in the fourth quarter. And I'm just wondering if that's just sort of a delay of inventory flowing through or what?

我只是想問幾件事。首先，儘管亞洲停電帶來了一系列不利因素，但第三季的乙醯化物明顯帶來了好處。所以我想知道您是否有任何方法來確定第三季的規模以及您對第四季的預期？似乎有一些評論稱第四季度仍將有更高的定價。我只是想知道這是否只是庫存流動的延遲還是什麼？

And then secondly, on the tax rate, I understand why it's lower this year and that it was originally contemplated in the lower guidance. But if the demand environment is going to stay not all that different from where it is today at least through the first half of next year, does that mean you have a lower-than-normal tax rate next year as well?

其次，關於稅率，我理解為什麼今年稅率較低，並且最初是在較低的指導下考慮的。但如果需求環境至少在明年上半年與現在沒有太大不同，這是否意味著明年的稅率也低於正常水準？

Yes, Vince, let me see if I can answer that. What I would say is we did see a positive influence from the higher Asia pricing that we saw as a result of supply outages in the third quarter. Most of those occurred in the last few weeks of the year. I would think of those as pretty much offsetting the impact of the contract pricing reduction that we had called out and the turnaround impact that we saw.

是的，文斯，讓我看看我能否回答這個問題。我想說的是，我們確實看到了第三季供應中斷導致亞洲定價上漲的正面影響。其中大部分發生在今年的最後幾週。我認為這些幾乎抵消了我們呼籲的合約定價降低的影響以及我們看到的周轉影響。

What I would say is, going into the fourth quarter now, we're really -- we've seen that price drop back to closer to the cost curve, maybe slightly above it. So we've kind of lost that benefit in China. We will see a little bit of benefit, although significantly less of that in the Western Hemisphere in the fourth quarter because typically, Western Hemisphere pricing lags by about a quarter. So we'll see some benefit, but not to the same extent that we saw the benefit in the third quarter.

我想說的是，現在進入第四季度，我們確實看到價格回落到接近成本曲線，甚至可能略高於成本曲線。所以我們在中國已經失去了這種好處。我們將看到一點好處，儘管第四季度西半球的好處要少得多，因為通常西半球的定價落後約四分之一。因此，我們會看到一些好處，但程度與我們在第三季度看到的好處不同。

And then on the tax rate, Vincent, a lot is just going to depend upon the geographic mix of earnings, if things stay exactly as they are this year, then certainly, we could be at lower levels. If we see things normalize back to kind of what I would say is the normal mix of geographic demand, then we'd be back more next year in that kind of 12% range.

然後，文森特，關於稅率，很大程度上取決於收入的地理組合，如果今年的情況保持不變，那麼當然，我們可能會處於較低的水平。如果我們看到事情恢復到我所說的地理需求的正常組合，那麼明年我們會回到 12% 的範圍。

Next question today is coming from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

First, congratulations to Scott, Chuck and Ashley. Lori and Scott, just on EM pricing. Pricing is up about 38% in '21, '22, should be down this year, maybe around 8%. If we do go back to pre '21 cost levels, do we retain some portion of this price increase? And if so, why is that the case?

首先，祝賀斯科特、查克和阿什利。 Lori 和 Scott，只是關於新興市場的定價。 21 年、22 年定價上漲了約 38%，今年應該會下降，可能會下降 8% 左右。如果我們確實回到 21 世紀之前的成本水平，我們是否會保留部分價格上漲？如果是這樣，為什麼會這樣？

That seems like a very long time ago, Dave. What I would say is the good news is we are seeing volumes come back. And so in some areas, like medical, like auto, we're kind of back to 2019 levels. I think -- so pricing similar, our margins probably similar. Again, consumer demand, durable goods, electronics, very, very soft. Pricing for differentiated grades, okay, I think that's something that we can keep. I think with the kind of the current low demand and therefore, the long supply for some of those standard grades, we're going to need to see some more demand before we can get the pricing back up to those kind of levels.

那似乎是很久以前的事了，戴夫。我想說的是好消息是我們看到銷量回升。因此，在某些領域，例如醫療、汽車等領域，我們又回到了 2019 年的水準。我認為，定價相似，我們的利潤率可能相似。再次強調，耐用品、電子產品等消費需求非常非常疲軟。不同等級的定價，好吧，我認為這是我們可以保留的。我認為，鑑於目前的需求較低，因此，某些標準等級的供應量很大，我們需要看到更多的需求，然後才能將價格恢復到這樣的水平。

Yes. David, I would just add, I think given some of the structural changes that we're making, we do think we should be able to hold that price as we get back to kind of normalized raws. And I think one of the things we've talked about is now with the Engineered Materials business and the acetyls business being about the same size, as we see in more normalized demand environments, the raw material landscape move up and down, we should see some countermovement in margins in EM versus Acetyl. So overall, it should kind of fundamentally lower earnings volatility for the enterprise as a whole once we get back into kind of normalized conditions.

是的。大衛，我想補充一點，我認為考慮到我們正在做出的一些結構性變化，我們確實認為，當我們回到正常化的原始狀態時，我們應該能夠保持這個價格。我認為我們討論的一件事是，現在工程材料業務和乙醯業務的規模大致相同，正如我們在更正常化的需求環境中看到的那樣，原材料格局上下波動，我們應該看到EM 與Acetyl 的利潤率存在一些反向變動。因此，總的來說，一旦我們回到正常化的狀態，整個企業的獲利波動性應該會從根本上降低。

Very good. And just on Clear Lake, the acid expansion for next year, how should we think about the ramp-up to the $100 million of normalized annualized earnings should be half of that next year in that range or something more or less?

非常好。就克利爾湖而言，明年的酸擴張，我們應該如何考慮明年正常化年化收益達到 1 億美元的增幅應該是該範圍的一半，還是或多或少？

Yes. Look, the Clear Lake acid expansion will start up within the first quarter. And so I would expect that ramp up to start kind of immediately after the startup.

是的。看來，Clear Lake 酸擴建將在第一季啟動。因此，我預計這種增長會在啟動後立即開始。

Next question is coming from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Lori, I think in your prepared remarks, it mentioned that you ceased production at certain Engineered Materials facilities in Brazil, Argentina and Germany beyond the nylon shutdown that you discussed previously, can you just put that into context for us. It wasn't entirely clear on whether these are temporary idlings or more permanent structural changes. Maybe you could talk through kind of where you are in that asset rationalization process today.

洛里，我認為在您準備好的發言中，提到您在巴西、阿根廷和德國的某些工程材料工廠停止了生產，超出了您之前討論的尼龍停工時間，您能否為我們介紹一下這一點。目前尚不完全清楚這些是暫時的閒置還是更永久性的結構變化。也許您可以談談您今天在資產合理化過程中所處的位置。

Yes. I would say for the majority of the ones that we've named, so the ones in Argentina and Brazil and Europe, these are more permanent shutdowns. Now we are taking temporary actions in things like VAM in Frankfurt and others. We're really, we're using that as flex capacity to meet the current demands of the network, which is lower than normal, but where we will need that capacity when we come up again.

是的。我想說的是，對於我們所提到的大多數國家，例如阿根廷、巴西和歐洲的國家，這些都是更永久的關閉。現在我們正在法蘭克福的 VAM 等地採取臨時行動。我們確實將其用作靈活容量來滿足網路當前的需求，該需求低於正常水平，但當我們再次出現時我們將需要該容量。

But the ones we've announced recently, I would consider those structural changes to really redefine where we are on the cost curve by taking out our highest cost producers.

但我們最近宣布的那些結構性變化，我認為透過淘汰成本最高的生產商，真正重新定義了我們在成本曲線上的位置。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I wanted to follow up on synergies. Can you tell us what the synergy-related benefit was in 3Q and what you're expecting in 4Q? And then when we look at the targeted tailwind of $150 million next year, would you describe that as ratable or ramping throughout the course of '24?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想跟進協同效應。您能否告訴我們第三季的協同相關效益是什麼以及您對第四季的預期是什麼？然後，當我們看到明年 1.5 億美元的目標順風車時，您是否會將其描述為在 24 年期間可調整或逐步增加？

Yes. So Q3 was actually a little bit lower than we anticipated because some of our -- I would say, at the lower end of the kind of 10% to 15% sequential uplift we had expected on synergies. Because with our volumes a little bit lower, some of our synergies are volume related.

是的。因此，第三季度實際上比我們預期的要低一些，因為我們的一些——我想說，處於我們預期的協同效應 10% 到 15% 的連續增長的低端。因為我們的銷量略低，所以我們的一些協同效應與銷量有關。

Again, we expect a small synergy -- sequential synergy increase in the fourth quarter. But the real synergies will start to come in after we do the completion of our cut over to SAP next year in the first quarter. And after we take some of the shutdowns that we announced, for example, the shutdowns and new growth that will happen in January and February.

同樣，我們預期第四季的協同效應將出現小幅成長。但真正的協同效應將在我們明年第一季完成向 SAP 的切換後開始顯現。在我們宣布的一些關閉之後，例如，一月和二月將發生的關閉和新的增長。

So the synergies will definitely ramp across 2024, but I would say starting more in the second quarter -- into the second quarter and through the end of the year.

因此，協同效應肯定會在 2024 年持續增強，但我想說的是，從第二季開始，一直到年底。

Yes, Kevin. In the third quarter, synergies were around $30 million in total, which was incrementally up about 10% or 11% off of Q2.

是的，凱文。第三季的綜效總計約為 3,000 萬美元，較第二季成長約 10% 或 11%。

Next question today is coming from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global.

今天的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Already in your prepared remarks, you guys talked about maximizing the make versus buy flexibility. I mean to me, the legacy sort of Celanese portfolio, you pretty much optimized that side of things. So is it fair to assume that a lot of this sort of optimization work will be on the EM side of it? So that's part one of the question.

在你們準備好的發言中，你們已經談到了最大化製造與購買的彈性。我的意思是，對於塞拉尼斯的傳統產品組合，您幾乎優化了這方面的事情。那麼，假設大量此類最佳化工作將在 EM 方面進行，是否公平？這是問題的一部分。

And the second part is that it seems that right now, there's a fair bit of idling or permanent shuttering going on. Could this also mean in the future some greenfield build-outs happening as well?

第二部分是，目前看來，有相當多的閒置或永久關閉正在進行中。這是否也意味著未來也會出現一些綠地擴建？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Hassan. So what I would say is we're really focused on building the flexibility across all of our products. And so we're not just looking at make-versus-buy flexibility, but we're also looking at sourcing flexibility for raw material, regional flexibility, flexibility and contract commitments much as we did with tow, more multisourcing versus single sourcing. Specifically for PA66, yes, we want the flexibility to make-versus-buy, especially in this low demand period where we can often buy cheaper than we can make in Europe, in particular, because of higher energy costs and higher fixed costs, higher raws there.

是的。謝謝你的提問，哈桑。所以我想說的是，我們真正專注於在我們所有產品中建立靈活性。因此，我們不僅關注自製與外購的靈活性，而且還關注原材料採購的靈活性、區域靈活性、靈活性和合約承諾，就像我們在拖車方面所做的那樣，更多的是多採購而不是單一採購。特別是對於PA66，是的，我們希望能夠靈活地進行製造與購買，特別是在這個低需求時期，我們通常可以比在歐洲製造的價格更便宜地購買，特別是，因為更高的能源成本和更高的固定成本，更高的成本在那裡生的。

But I would say this has been a consistent theme in Celanese and one we're just now applying to the Heritage [EM] portfolio. So I think -- but I would say we've also applied this and Acetyls with some of our contracting around raw materials and others. I mean it is a way we continue to deliver value uplift year-on-year even without a large amount of volume growth.

但我想說，這是塞拉尼斯一貫的主題，也是我們現在剛應用於 Heritage [EM] 產品組合的主題。所以我認為 - 但我想說，我們也將其和乙醯基應用於我們圍繞原材料和其他方面的一些合約。我的意思是，即使銷售量沒有大幅成長，這是我們繼續實現同比價值提升的一種方式。

So I think we expect that to continue. And I think as a result of that, you will continue to see some footprint optimization continuing over the next few years. And I would say in terms of greenfield, I wouldn't anticipate any sign in the next many years, a lot of greenfield builds. I think what you'll continue to see us take advantage of the footprint we have and the opportunities to do no and low-cost debottlenecks around the world, much like the Clear Lake expansion, where we're basically doubling the size of our unit for $400 million.

所以我認為我們預計這種情況會持續下去。我認為因此，您將在接下來的幾年中繼續看到一些足跡優化的繼續。我想說，就綠地而言，我預計未來幾年不會有任何跡象，大量綠地建設。我想你會繼續看到我們利用我們所擁有的足跡以及在世界各地進行低成本消除瓶頸的機會，就像克利爾湖的擴張一樣，我們基本上將我們的單位規模擴大了一倍4億美元。

So we think we have a lot of opportunity already on the ground to significantly expand our footprint without major investments.

因此，我們認為我們已經有很多機會可以在不進行重大投資的情況下顯著擴大我們的足跡。

Very fair. And just switching gears a little bit. Look, I completely sort of understand that visibility is extremely low right now. But just thinking beyond sort of the near term, I mean with some sort of historical context as well, I mean, this destock has been unprecedented, both in terms of absolute volume declines, as well as the ongoing duration of it.

很公平。只是稍微切換一下。看，我完全明白現在能見度極低。但只要超越近期的考慮，我的意思是，在某種歷史背景下，我的意思是，無論是在絕對數量下降方面，還是在持續時間方面，這種去庫存都是前所未有的。

So just as you sort of sit there and look at the legacy Celanese portfolio as well as the history of living through these destocks with the acquired businesses, I mean what could a potential eventual restock look like?

因此，當你坐在那裡，看看塞拉尼斯的傳統投資組合，以及與收購的企業一起經歷這些去庫存的歷史時，我的意思是，潛在的最終補貨會是什麼樣子？

Yes. Look, at some point, I think there will be some restocking when that happens, I would say, highly uncertain. Right now, we're just happy to see people starting to return to normal order patterns in some polymers in particular. I think Acetyls, we're seeing more. I think I would think about restocking as being a few percent. But again, I think that could be spread across a pretty significant period as I think people will be nervous to rapidly raise stock after what we've been through the last year.

是的。看，在某個時候，我認為當這種情況發生時，將會有一些補貨，我想說，這是高度不確定的。現在，我們很高興看到人們開始恢復正常的秩序模式，特別是在某些聚合物中。我認為乙醯基，我們看到了更多。我想我會考慮重新進貨百分之幾。但我再次認為，這種情況可能會持續相當長的一段時間，因為我認為在經歷了去年的經歷之後，人們會對迅速增加庫存感到緊張。

Next question is coming from Alex Yefremov from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Alex Yefremov。

I wanted to return to the M&Ms synergies in your 2024 bridge. The $150 million improvement, does it depend on volume improvement or demand improvement? Or is it independent of it?

我想回到 2024 年橋樑中 M&M 巧克力豆的協同作用。 1.5億美元的改善，是取決於銷售量的改善還是需求的改善？或者說它是獨立於它的？

So the $150 million, what I would say is, look, initially, I would say there was some volume improvement in that because some of the synergies are volume related. I think that's why you see us continuing to accelerate some of our manufacturing footprint work to better align current demand with our supply, and we will get synergies from there.

因此，1.5 億美元，我想說的是，看，最初，我會說銷量有所改善，因為一些協同效應與銷量相關。我認為這就是為什麼我們會繼續加快我們的一些製造足跡工作，以更好地使當前需求與我們的供應保持一致，我們將從那裡獲得協同效應。

So I would say we are fully committed to delivering well over the $150 million this year. The blend may be slightly different than we had set out, say, a year ago at the time of the deal. But we think we have sufficient activities underway to deliver that.

因此，我想說，我們今年將全力投入超過 1.5 億美元的資金。這種混合可能與我們在一年前交易時設定的略有不同。但我們認為我們正在進行足夠的活動來實現這一目標。

Thanks, Lori. And then staying with EM, you just announced shutdown of some assets. Have you seen the industry and your peers either idle or announced permanent shutdowns in any significant polymer chains?

謝謝，洛瑞。然後留在新興市場，你剛剛宣布關閉一些資產。您是否看到該行業和您的同行在任何重要的聚合物鏈中閒置或宣布永久關閉？

Yes. I think if we look at the industry, probably specifically PA66 is where we've seen the most activity. We have seen some additional capacity being built out in Asia, particularly in China for nylon polymer, which has increased market length in a period of lower demand. And therefore, we've had some increased competition, depressed pricing you've seen all those impacts.

是的。我認為，如果我們看看這個行業，可能特別是 PA66 是我們看到最活躍的領域。我們看到亞洲正在建造一些額外的產能，特別是在中國的尼龍聚合物，這在需求較低的時期延長了市場長度。因此，我們面臨著競爭加劇、價格下跌，所有這些影響你都看到了。

I think what you see, though, is much like our shutdown, we start to see other industry participants take action. So we've seen a nylon intermediate producer announced a shutdown of one of their largest assets here in the last month, which represents about 10% of the intermediate production.

不過，我認為你所看到的很像我們的關閉，我們開始看到其他行業參與者採取行動。因此，我們看到一家尼龍中間體生產商上個月宣布關閉最大的資產之一，該資產約佔中間體產量的 10%。

So I think you see the intermediate using this as an opportunity to take out some of the legacy higher-cost assets and different parts of the world that have become quite high cost and work towards rebalancing.

因此，我認為中間人會以此為契機，取出一些遺留的高成本資產和世界不同地區的成本已變得相當高的資產，並努力實現再平衡。

Again, when demand returns, I think we'll be in a much better position, but I do think you've seen a number of commercial actions going on across the industry to address that.

同樣，當需求恢復時，我認為我們將處於更好的位置，但我確實認為您已經看到整個行業正在採取許多商業行動來解決這個問題。

Next question is coming from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Maybe if I could ask the destock question a little differently. You mentioned in the release the prepared remarks that the -- you're seeing it end here in the fourth quarter in the Americas and Asia, that will continue in Europe. What gives you the confidence that we're going to be finally done in the Americas and Asia and such that 2024, we're going to see underlying demand growth in those regions?

也許我能以不同的方式提出去庫存問題。您在新聞稿中提到，您將看到美洲和亞洲的情況將於第四季度結束，歐洲將繼續如此。是什麼讓您相信我們最終將在美洲和亞洲完成這項工作，並且到 2024 年，我們將看到這些地區的潛在需求成長？

Yes. Look, I think our confidence really comes from, obviously, conversations with our distributors and our direct customers as well, but also just the buying patterns we're seeing in the U.S. I mean, we don't have a lot of visibility into future purchasing because what we're finding is now, especially in the Americas, when people want to buy, they want it now. Would suggest to us that they are fully destocked because they don't have inventory in their chain that they can pull on.

是的。聽著，我認為我們的信心顯然來自於與我們的分銷商和直接客戶的對話，而且也來自我們在美國看到的購買模式。我的意思是，我們對未來沒有太多的了解購買是因為我們發現現在，尤其是在美洲，當人們想購買時，他們現在就想要。會向我們建議他們完全去庫存，因為他們的連鎖店沒有可以使用的庫存。

And I think in the U.S. at least, we're starting to see some recovery, especially in those areas that have been weak like consumer durables and electronics, to maybe more normal demand patterns.

我認為至少在美國，我們開始看到一些復甦，特別是在耐用消費品和電子產品等疲軟的領域，可能會出現更正常的需求模式。

So I think it's the customer buying patterns that I would trigger off of to say we feel pretty confident that we're at the end of destocking in the U.S. I would say less so in China. China, I would describe as consumer demand in China for China -- is come back to, I would say, near normal levels. But obviously, China export volumes are still very weak, which is a significant portion of the China demand.

因此，我認為這是客戶的購買模式，我會觸發這樣的說法：我們非常有信心，我們在美國的去庫存已經結束。在中國，我會說更少。我將中國描述為中國的消費者需求——我想說，已經恢復到接近正常水平。但顯然，中國的出口量仍然非常疲軟，而出口量佔中國需求的很大一部分。

And then in Europe, I would just say, outside of auto, we really just don't see any improvement in Europe as I think consumer confidence remains very low in light of the War in the Ukraine and higher energy prices and higher inflation. We're just not seeing that behavior start to pick up in Europe, yes.

然後在歐洲，我只想說，除了汽車之外，我們確實沒有看到歐洲有任何改善，因為我認為，鑑於烏克蘭戰爭、能源價格上漲和通膨上升，消費者信心仍然很低。是的，我們只是沒有看到這種行為在歐洲開始抬頭。

Got you. That's very helpful. And then the look at -- the early look at 2024 suggests that there's a bunch of onetime cost actions that you took in '23 that will not be repeated, so that should set up an easier comp. I'm just curious if you could kind of quantify or provide an order of magnitude of that and perhaps if plant turnarounds also play a role in some expectations for '24 to be better than '23. Any color there would be very helpful.

明白你了。這非常有幫助。然後，對 2024 年的早期觀察表明，您在 23 年採取的一系列一次性成本行動不會重複，因此應該建立一個更容易的比較。我只是好奇你是否可以量化或提供一個數量級，也許工廠的周轉也對「24 年」比「23 年」的預期產生影響。任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Yes. I think we had called out a couple of quarters ago, $60 million to $80 million of onetime actions that we were taking this year to really offset some of the softness we were seeing still in the second quarter. And we're achieving those across third quarter and fourth quarter. What I would say is those are really related to actions we've taken to idle lines to cut costs out of facilities that aren't running full.

是的。我認為我們在幾個季度前就已經採取了 6000 萬至 8000 萬美元的一次性行動，我們今年採取了這些行動，以真正抵消第二季度我們仍然看到的一些疲軟情況。我們正在第三季和第四季實現這些目標。我想說的是，這些確實與我們為削減未滿載設施的成本而閒置生產線所採取的行動有關。

If demand does not pick up. Obviously, we will continue to realize those benefits next year as well. If demand picks up, we will be more than happy to spend that money again in order to capture the margin that will come from the increased demand. So I don't see that as a big factor either way in our bridge from '23 to '24 because we'll either get it in earnings or we'll continue to see it as cost savings.

如果需求沒有回升。顯然，明年我們也將繼續實現這些好處。如果需求回升，我們將非常樂意再次花這筆錢，以獲得需求增加帶來的利潤。因此，我不認為這對我們從 23 世紀到 24 世紀的過渡來說是一個重要因素，因為我們要么將其納入收益，要么繼續將其視為成本節約。

Yes, Frank, and I would say our focus is really on now actioning other things that are going to be more permanent in nature, given some of the things we called out in the prepared comments, so we can make kind of more sustainable cost reductions and really the lower the overall fixed cost base of the company. And that then gives us an ability to withstand lower demand environment in the future and get much greater leverage on the fixed cost that we have.

是的，弗蘭克，我想說，考慮到我們在準備好的評論中提出的一些事情，我們現在的重點實際上是採取其他本質上更持久的事情，這樣我們就可以實現更可持續的成本削減公司的整體固定成本基礎確實越低。這使我們有能力承受未來較低的需求環境，並在我們擁有的固定成本上獲得更大的槓桿作用。

Next question is coming from the Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

Congrats everyone on the new roles as well. So I'm just looking at the bridge for '24 and again, obviously, (inaudible) never questions have been asked here. But if we think about Q3 EBITDA around $625 million in Q4, looking a little bit similar from your segment commentary makeup. You're exiting the year at maybe like a $2.5 billion run rate, you have maybe $100 million coming from the AC uplift and then $150 million from incremental synergies and then maybe a couple of other items, including the lack of an inventory hit. So that puts us at maybe $2.8 billion or between $2.8 billion and $3 billion.

也祝賀大家獲得新角色。所以我只是在看 24 年的橋樑，顯然，（聽不清楚）這裡從未有人提出過問題。但如果我們考慮第三季的 EBITDA，第四季約為 6.25 億美元，從您的細分評論組成來看，看起來有點相似。你將以大約 25 億美元的運行速度結束這一年，你可能有 1 億美元來自 AC 提升，然後 1.5 億美元來自增量協同效應，然後可能還有其他一些項目，包括沒有庫存打擊。因此，我們的資產規模可能為 28 億美元，即 28 億至 30 億美元之間。

Are we thinking about that correctly as far as EBITDA goes. And is volume the main driver that would push you above that range?

就 EBITDA 而言，我們的思考是否正確？成交量是推動你突破這個範圍的主要動力嗎？

Yes. We've called out what those factors are, I would say, the big unknown at this point remains demand and pricing, particularly raw material pricing, which, as we've seen this year, can cause quite a lot of volatility. Hopefully, we'll be able to give a better guidance next quarter.

是的。我們已經指出了這些因素是什麼，我想說，目前最大的未知數仍然是需求和定價，特別是原材料定價，正如我們今年所看到的，這可能會導致相當大的波動。希望我們能夠在下個季度提供更好的指導。

Okay. I appreciate that. And maybe I can just ask one on the balance sheet. So obviously, a lot of progress there as well as restructuring the debt profile and redomiciling. Do you expect any other further opportunities there? And I guess, could you just reiterate what your target leverage level is maybe as you exit '24?

好的。我很感激。也許我可以只問資產負債表上的一項。顯然，在債務結構重組和遷冊方面取得了許多進展。您還期待那裡還有其他更多的機會嗎？我想，您能否重申一下，當您退出 '24 時，您的目標槓桿水平可能是多少？

Yes, Arun, I mean our focus right now has continued to accelerate cash generation and aggressively repay debt. We have obviously moved the maturities out since we last talked a quarter ago. But certainly, now our focus is on bringing down overall net debt. We're going to be focused on repatriating cash and using that cash to reduce debt. And then with the cash generation, we should -- next year, between repatriation, cash gen, we should be able to reduce debt by almost $2 billion net debt reduction, certainly well north of $1 billion.

是的，阿倫，我的意思是我們現在的重點是繼續加速現金產生和積極償還債務。自從我們上一次談論一個季度前以來，我們顯然已經將到期日移出了。但可以肯定的是，現在我們的重點是降低整體淨債務。我們將專注於匯回現金並利用這些現金來減少債務。然後，隨著現金的產生，我們應該——明年，在遣返和現金產生之間，我們應該能夠將債務減少近 20 億美元的淨債務減少，當然遠遠超過 10 億美元。

So I think from that standpoint, that's where the focus is today. We don't have a need really to adjust maturities or refinance. Certainly, if markets change, we'll be opportunistic around that. But we're going to continue to focus on every single quarter marching down and bringing our leverage levels down with a target to get to 3x as quickly as possible.

所以我認為從這個角度來看，這就是今天的重點。我們實際上不需要調整期限或再融資。當然，如果市場發生變化，我們會抓住機會。但我們將繼續關注每個季度的下降，並降低我們的槓桿水平，目標是盡快達到 3 倍。

Next question is coming from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Just when you think about kind of the improving the productivity in the Acetyls through shrinking capacity and I guess, also it's parts of EM. If you think about the next 3, 4 years, if there is no significant surge in demand. How much of your capacity could be optimized or rationalized through -- shifting through process improvements at your larger facilities and debottlenecking and upgrading the network? In other words, how far are we in this upgrading process? And at what point would you need to start considering just sort of new greenfield projects?

就在你想到透過縮小產能來提高乙醯基的生產力時，我想，這也是新興市場的一部分。如果你想想未來3、4年，如果需求不會有明顯的激增。您有多少容量可以透過大型設施的流程改進以及消除瓶頸和升級網路來優化或合理化？換句話說，我們在這個升級過程中走了多遠？什麼時候需要開始考慮新的綠地專案？

Yes. Let me take them as two separate. I would say on Acetyls, we have done a lot of work over many years now to really reduce the number of facilities that we have. And really have larger, very efficient facilities strategically located regionally. And our activities, including the big expansion at Clear Lake, but we've also had many, many small expansions in many of our downstream derivatives to basically keep us at the same or greater volumes and certainly much higher margins as a result.

是的。讓我將它們視為兩個單獨的。我想說的是，在乙醯化方面，多年來我們已經做了很多工作，以真正減少我們擁有的設施數量。並且確實在區域戰略上擁有更大、非常有效率的設施。我們的活動，包括在克利爾湖的大規模擴張，但我們在許多下游衍生品方面也進行了很多很多的小規模擴張，基本上使我們保持相同或更大的產量，當然也因此獲得更高的利潤。

I would say we've also done that work in the Heritage EM portfolio over the last, call it, 10 years as we adopted the new models and the project pipeline models and you've seen a lot of those actions in the announcements we've made over the last 10 years. I think now for us, that's now taking the M&M portfolio and applying that same mindset to that.

我想說的是，過去 10 年來，我們在 Heritage EM 產品組合中也做了這項工作，因為我們採用了新模型和專案管道模型，您在我們的公告中看到了很多這樣的行動。我們在過去10 年所做的一切。我認為現在對我們來說，現在就是採用 M&M 投資組合併應用相同的思考方式。

So I don't really have a number yet what that means in terms of capacity that we would take out. Again, I don't really see any time in the near to medium future any need for greenfield because we have sufficient capacity even with some of the strategic shutdowns in our existing network, and we have a team that's exceptionally good at finding low and no cost debottlenecks to our existing assets to add very efficiently and inexpensively additional capacity.

所以我還沒有確切的數字，這對於我們將拿出的容量意味著什麼。再說一次，我真的認為在不久的將來任何時候都不需要綠地，因為即使我們現有網路中的一些策略性關閉，我們也有足夠的容量，而且我們有一個非常善於發現低和無的團隊消除我們現有資產的成本瓶頸，以非常有效且便宜的方式增加額外產能。

Our next question today is coming from Salvator Tiano from Bank of America.

今天我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾。

Yes. Firstly, I want to ask a little bit, as you said, the shutdowns in Engineered Materials are a big part of the $150 million synergies. So I'm just wondering where do these actions in your original plans when you acquired the DuPont assets or were they more, I guess in response to recent market conditions. And I guess if the latter, why will the synergy target increase given that this will be incremental actions?

是的。首先，我想問一點，正如您所說，工程材料業務的停產是 1.5 億美元協同效應的重要組成部分。所以我只是想知道，當你收購杜邦資產時，這些行動在你最初的計劃中做了什麼，或者是更多，我想是為了應對最近的市場狀況。我想如果是後者，既然這將是增量行動，為什麼協同目標會增加？

Yes, great question. Look, we knew at the time of the acquisition or we believed at the time of the acquisition that DuPont had more than sufficient capacity to meet normal demand conditions and requirements. And we assume that some would be more efficient or less efficient than others, we just didn't know which assets those would be. So we've needed this time we've had since the acquisition to really look at how all of these plants are operating, what their cost structures look like and where the most opportunities are to really fine-tune our footprint to build in the most flexibility, the most synergy, the lowest cost footprint, like I said, much as we've done with Celanese over the last 10 years.

是的，很好的問題。看，我們在收購時就知道或我們在收購時相信杜邦有足夠的能力來滿足正常的需求條件和要求。我們假設有些資產會比其他資產更有效率或效率更低，但我們只是不知道這些資產是哪些。因此，自收購以來，我們需要這段時間來真正了解所有這些工廠的運作情況、它們的成本結構是什麼樣的，以及最有機會真正調整我們的足跡，以在最靈活性、最大的協同效應、最低的成本足跡，正如我所說，就像過去10 年我們與塞拉尼斯所做的一樣。

So the actions you're seeing us taking now is really addressing that overcapacity now that we've been able to identify where that is. Some of the temporary shutdowns and line shutdowns and things were taken are more in response to the near-term demand environment, leaving the flexibility for the future. But the things like Uentrop and Argentina and those that we've announced that they are more permanent in nature.

因此，您現在看到的我們現在採取的行動實際上是在解決產能過剩問題，因為我們已經能夠確定產能過剩的問題所在。一些臨時停產、停產和採取的措施更多是為了應對近期的需求環境，為未來留下了靈活性。但像烏恩特羅普和阿根廷這樣的事情以及我們已經宣布的事情本質上是更永久的。

Okay. Perfect. And I also would like to ask a little bit about your Q4 guidance on (inaudible). I think there's a lot of the questions regarding what's the demand destruction in the stock installing, et cetera. But I think the -- what makes, I guess, your outlook a little bit different than most of the companies that have reported so far is that you made the comment, if I understood correctly, you expect a more muted destocking in Q4 than normal, whereas I would say the vast majority of your competitors expect the same, if not a more intense destocking quarter? Why do you differ versus, I guess, most of the other chemical companies here?

好的。完美的。我還想詢問一下您對第四季的指導（聽不清楚）。我認為存在著許多關於庫存安裝中的需求破壞等問題。但我認為，我猜你的前景與迄今為止報告的大多數公司略有不同，因為你發表了評論，如果我理解正確的話，你預計第四季度的去庫存會比正常情況更加溫和。 ，而我想說的是，你們的絕大多數競爭對手都期望同樣的，甚至更激烈的去庫存季度？我想，為什麼你們與這裡的大多數其他化學公司不同？

Yes. I mean I can't really comment on what anybody else believe is going to happen. As I called out earlier, we based our views on what we're hearing from our customers, what we're hearing from our distributors, big customer order patterns that we're seeing in our experience with those order patterns.

是的。我的意思是，我無法真正評論其他人認為將會發生的事情。正如我之前所說，我們的觀點是基於我們從客戶那裡聽到的、我們從經銷商那裡聽到的、我們在這些訂單模式的經驗中看到的大客戶訂單模式。

Certainly, it helps that half of our volume in engineered material is going into automotive, and we expect automotive to be quite solid across Q3 to Q4. So we're really just dealing with the other portions of our demand when we're looking at what is the impact for the fourth quarter.

當然，我們一半的工程材料用於汽車領域，這對我們很有幫助，我們預計汽車產業在第三季到第四季將保持穩定。因此，當我們考慮對第四季度的影響時，我們實際上只是在處理需求的其他部分。

So again, I can't really say why it would be different. But certainly, our share of auto may be one of those impacts.

再說一遍，我真的無法說出為什麼會有所不同。但當然，我們的汽車份額可能是這些影響之一。

Next question today is coming from Andrew Keches from Barclays.

今天的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯凱奇斯。

Just to clarify the comment earlier on the debt repayment. So it sounds like you said cash flow will be used to handle the maturities now that you've reprofiled. But that excess cash you're running, can you just remind us where your operating needs are? And can you get all the way down there in 2024?

只是為了澄清之前關於債務償還的評論。所以聽起來你說現金流將用於處理到期日，因為你已經重新配置了。但是您正在運行多餘的現金，您能提醒我們您的營運需求在哪裡嗎？ 2024 年你能到達那裡嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Cash balance is a little north of $1.3 billion right now, and we'll be repatriating that cash now in the coming months. And then once we get integrated on 1 system, which we expect to happen in the early part of next year, then we'll be able to start moving that cash balance down to where we think we can -- minimum needs would be right around $500 million. So we definitely are confident that we'll be able to get to that $500 million level during 2024.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。目前現金餘額略高於 13 億美元，我們將在未來幾個月內將這些現金匯回國內。然後，一旦我們整合到一個系統上（我們預計這將在明年初發生），那麼我們將能夠開始將現金餘額轉移到我們認為可以的地方——最低需求就在附近5億美元。因此，我們絕對有信心在 2024 年達到 5 億美元的水平。

Okay. Great. And then I just didn't catch the answer on the leverage metric. I know you said 3x in the past. Are you putting a horizon or a time line on that at this point?

好的。偉大的。然後我只是沒有找到槓桿指標的答案。我知道你過去說過 3x。現在您對此設定了一個範圍或時間線？

No. I mean, look, we had originally targeted the end of 2024, and we're going to do everything we can to get close to that. And last quarter, we said may bleed into the early part of 2025, a lot just depends upon what happens with our cost reduction plans, which is another reason why we continue to take aggressive action on getting controllable earnings improvement from cost reduction and then where the macro and the demand plans that we have.

不，我的意思是，我們最初的目標是 2024 年底，我們將盡一切努力接近這一目標。上個季度，我們表示可能會持續到2025 年初，這在很大程度上取決於我們的成本削減計劃的進展，這是我們繼續採取積極行動，透過成本削減獲得可控收益改善的另一個原因，然後我們的宏觀和需求計劃。

The other things that teams are doing, largely in Engineered Materials is really working the revenue synergy side of things. And the revenue synergy side of bringing M&M into our project pipeline model, will start to yield opportunities and then close wins as we get further into 2024.

團隊正在做的其他事情，主要是在工程材料領域，實際上是實現收入協同的工作。將 M&M 納入我們的專案管道模型的收入協同效應將開始產生機會，然後隨著我們進一步進入 2024 年，最終取得勝利。

So the pace and speed at which we're able to execute on those plans will certainly help us accelerate that deleveraging plan.

因此，我們執行這些計劃的步伐和速度肯定會幫助我們加速去槓桿化計劃。

Next question is coming from Patrick Cunningham from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Patrick Cunningham。

How are you thinking about potential portfolio actions, let's say, if demand does not get better from here? Is there anything that maybe stands out as separable or where you can structure a similar deal as the Food Ingredients JV?

假設需求沒有從現在開始好轉，您如何考慮潛在的投資組合行動？是否有任何東西可能是可分離的，或者您可以在其中建立與食品配料合資企業類似的交易？

Yes. I think as we've called out in past calls, we are going to continue to be opportunistic and disciplined in our approach to divestment. We continue to look at a number of assets from both the Heritage Celanese as well as the M&M portfolio as possible divestiture target. But we really need to understand what the future potential of those assets are and what the value to us is and then identify other parties that will value them more than we value them.

是的。我認為，正如我們在過去的電話會議中所呼籲的那樣，我們將繼續在撤資方面保持機會主義和紀律性。我們繼續將 Heritage Celanese 以及 M&M 投資組合中的一些資產視為可能的剝離目標。但我們確實需要了解這些資產的未來潛力是什麼以及對我們的價值是什麼，然後確定對它們的估價高於我們對它們的估價的其他方。

So I would say we continue to look for opportunities, but we will be selective about what we do, so it doesn't impact long-term growth as well as making sure we get fair value for it.

所以我想說，我們會繼續尋找機會，但我們會對我們所做的事情有所選擇，因此它不會影響長期成長，並確保我們獲得公平的價值。

Got it. And then just on the ECO-CC brand with products containing recycled CO2. What sort of relative premiums do you expect to achieve? And would you be fulfilling incremental demand there? Or is that more of just optionality with the rest of the portfolio?

知道了。然後是 ECO-CC 品牌，其產品含有回收二氧化碳。您期望實現什麼樣的相對保費？您會滿足那裡的增量需求嗎？或者這更多地只是投資組合其餘部分的可選性？

Look, I think you've said it best in terms of optionality. We actually started that project just on credit, and it was justified based just on additional methanol for use in Clear Lake and really the cost advantage of make-versus-buy for methanol on an average basis. So that was the justification for the project. Since the time we started the project, obviously, markets have continued to develop for more sustainable products for lower carbon footprint products. And we do believe for certain that there will be a premium that will be available for more sustainable products.

聽著，我認為你在可選性方面說得最好。實際上，我們只是以信貸方式啟動了該項目，並且僅基於在 Clear Lake 中使用額外的甲醇以及平均而言製造與購買甲醇的成本優勢，該項目的合理性是合理的。這就是該項目的理由。顯然，自從我們啟動該專案以來，市場一直在持續開發更永續的產品，以實現低碳足跡產品。我們確實相信，更永續的產品將會有溢價。

I would say not so much -- I don't anticipate we will be in the biomethanol market. Our intent is to take that methanol and further convert it into lower carbon downstream derivatives. So they lower carbon -- acetic acid, lower carbon BAM or carbon BAE, lower carbon palm and other polymers. And that's really where we think the advantage is as end users will see more value in being able to have low carbon. So think of it simply as we able to, through this project, put CO2 in the paint on your wall, that would otherwise would've been into the atmosphere.

我想說的不多——我預計我們不會進入生物甲醇市場。我們的目的是將甲醇進一步轉化為低碳下游衍生物。所以它們是低碳的——乙酸、低碳BAM或碳BAE、低碳棕櫚和其他聚合物。這確實是我們認為優勢所在，因為最終用戶將看到低碳的更多價值。因此，簡單地想像一下，透過這個項目，我們可以將二氧化碳添加到牆上的油漆中，否則二氧化碳就會進入大氣中。

I mean, that's where we see the premium coming is from people who want to have that impact on their environmental footprint.

我的意思是，這就是我們看到溢價來自那些希望對環境足跡產生影響的人。

Next question is coming from Jaideep Pandya from On Field Research.

下一個問題來自 On Field Research 的 Jaideep Pandya。

The first question is really on the nylon chain. There is a lot of upstream capacity in monomers and polymers coming in Asia. So could you just tell us like maybe on a fundamental basis, how do you add value in your nylon sort of portfolio? And in the long run, why would you actually want to be more in the polymerization. Why wouldn't you want to be more downstream asset-light use this capacity that it is coming in Asia and create more product differentiation. That's my first question.

第一個問題其實是關於尼龍鏈的。亞洲擁有大量單體和聚合物上游產能。那麼，您能否從根本上告訴我們，您如何為尼龍類產品組合增加價值？從長遠來看，為什麼你實際上想要更多地參與聚合。為什麼不想更多地利用亞洲即將到來的下游產能並創造更多的產品差異化？這是我的第一個問題。

And then on the Acetyl side, there is capacity, again coming in China, some of the plants have been laid this year and ramping into next year. So how do you see demand supply balance in acid and VAM next year?

然後在乙醯基方面，也有產能，再次出現在中國，一些工廠已於今年建成，並將在明年投入使用。那麼您如何看待明年酸和VAM的需求供應平衡？

Thanks for the question. As I said earlier, we do see the polymerization capacity and some intermediate capacity coming on stream in China. We have seen some other industry shutdowns going on. But we remain really excited about PA66.

謝謝你的提問。正如我之前所說，我們確實看到中國的聚合產能和一些中間產能正在投產。我們還看到其他一些行業正在關閉。但我們仍然對 PA66 感到非常興奮。

Again, a lot of what's coming on is polymer. A lot of the value is adding in compounding. A lot of our PA66 goes into highly differentiated products, where we are the sole suppliers. And we see a lot of future potential for PA66 in EV, for example, uniquely to EVs lately, we've had applications for battery cell frames and in-place, high-voltage connector, brackets and mounts for electric motors. So we see the EVs continuing to extend to the extent that we see some moderation in EV production. We think that will be in favor of hybrids and hybrids have even more PA66 content. So that's only a good thing for us.

同樣，許多即將出現的產品都是聚合物。很多價值都在複利中增加。我們的許多 PA66 都用於高度差異化的產品，我們是這些產品的唯一供應商。我們看到 PA66 在電動車領域的巨大未來潛力，例如，最近，我們在電池框架和就地高壓連接器、電動馬達支架和安裝座方面有了獨特的應用。因此，我們看到電動車的產量持續成長，但電動車的生產有所放緩。我們認為這將有利於混合動力車，並且混合動力車具有更多的 PA66 含量。所以這對我們來說只是一件好事。

And then if you look at the next 5 years, we also see electricity demand more than doubling, partly driven by EVs, but also driven by the electrification of everything. And there will be a strong pull on PA66 for that in building out electrical infrastructure. But again, you don't tend to be standard grade materials. These tend to be highly differentiated. They need fire retardants, they need all sorts of different things. And that's where we really see the value being added is in the differentiation achieved through compounding.

展望未來 5 年，我們也將看到電力需求將增加一倍以上，部分由電動車推動，但也由一切電氣化推動。 PA66 將在電力基礎設施建設中發揮強大作用。但同樣，您往往不會成為標準級材料。這些往往是高度分化的。他們需要阻燃劑，他們需要各種不同的東西。這就是我們真正看到的增值之處在於透過複利實現的差異化。

And look, we always want the flexibility to make versus buy because we do see these markets swing because of outages and other things going on. So this is really about building more optionality into this chain in a way that M&M didn't have because they had a very cumbersome take-or-pay. They have a lot of overcapacity, they had single sourcing. We have been systematically resolving these issues so that we will have a flexible and highly optional PA66 chain where we think we can achieve significant value uplift.

看，我們總是希望能夠靈活地製造和購買，因為我們確實看到這些市場因停電和其他事情而波動。因此，這實際上是為了以一種 M&M 沒有的方式在這個鏈條中建立更多的選擇，因為他們的照付不議非常麻煩。他們產能過剩，來源單一。我們一直在系統地解決這些問題，以便我們擁有一個靈活且高度可選的 PA66 鏈條，我們認為我們可以在其中實現顯著的價值提升。

Kevin, we'll take the next question as our last one, please.

凱文，我們將把下一個問題當作最後一個問題。

Our final question today is coming from John Roberts from Mizuho.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的約翰羅伯茲。

After the start-up of Clear Lake VAM in early 2024, do you have the option of permanently closing the VAM unit in Frankfurt or you need to maintain some optionality and flexibility by only doing temporary closures. And excluding any onetime upfront cost, is there a significant cost difference between a permanent closure in operating Frankfurt and the stop and start mode?

Clear Lake VAM 於 2024 年初啟動後，您是否可以選擇永久關閉法蘭克福的 VAM 裝置，或者您需要透過暫時關閉來保持一定的選擇性和靈活性。排除任何一次性的前期成本，法蘭克福營運的永久關閉與停止和啟動模式之間是否存在顯著的成本差異？

Yes, John, we're building a new acetic acid plant in Clear Lake not a VAM unit. So we did the expansion in Clear Lake and VAM a number of years ago. So we feel really good about our current network in VAM.

是的，約翰，我們正在克利爾湖建造一座新的醋酸廠，而不是 VAM 裝置。因此，我們幾年前就在 Clear Lake 和 VAM 進行了擴建。所以我們對 VAM 目前的網路感覺非常好。

And do you think the prolonged Delrin divestment process contributed to some of the weakness in the Engineered Materials market?

您認為長期的 Delrin 撤資過程是否導致了工程材料市場的疲軟？

Yes. I -- hard to say, but I don't -- we haven't really seen that that's been an impact at all in terms of impacting the palm market.

是的。我——很難說，但我不——我們還沒有真正看到這對棕櫚市場的影響。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Brandon for any further closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權轉回布蘭登以徵求更多的結束語。

Thank you, Kevin. We'd like to thank everyone for listening in today. As always, we're around for any follow-up questions that you have. Kevin, please go ahead and close the call.

謝謝你，凱文。我們要感謝大家今天的收聽。一如既往，我們隨時解答您的任何後續問題。凱文，請繼續並結束通話。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。