塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Q4 2025 earnings call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2025年第四季財報電話會議和網路直播。（操作說明）

Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Bill Cunningham. Thank you, Bill. You may begin.

請注意，本次會議正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給比爾·坎寧安主持。謝謝你，比爾。你可以開始了。

Thanks, [Darryl]. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference Call. My name is Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Scott Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck Kyrish, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese distributed its fourth quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments as well as a presentation on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

謝謝，[達裡爾]歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。我是投資人關係副總裁比爾‧坎寧安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長史考特·理查森，以及財務長查克·凱裡什。塞拉尼斯公司昨天下午透過 Business Wire 發布了第四季度收益報告，並在其投資者關係網站上發布了準備好的評論和簡報。

As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

再次提醒大家，我們今天將討論非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較GAAP指標的調節表。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and the prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的報告還將包含前瞻性陳述。請仔細閱讀新聞稿和準備好的評論文章末尾的有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

With that, [Darryl], let's please go ahead and open it up for questions.

那麼，達裡爾，我們現在開始接受提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）David Begleiter，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. Scott, now that the business has been stabilized and you've done some improvements in the cost and balance sheet side, what are your updated thoughts on potentially selling some equity to get ahead of this balance sheet issue? Thank you.

謝謝。早安.史考特，既然公司業務已經穩定下來，而且你在成本和資產負債表方面也做了一些改進，那麼你現在對出售一些股權來解決資產負債表問題有什麼新的想法？謝謝。

David, our focus continues to be on the plan that we've been outlining. It is really about cash generation first. And I think the team has done an excellent job of prioritizing cash generation and the strength of that in 2025 despite the earnings decline year-over-year was evident. And the fact that I think we've built the right elements that can keep that going here in '26 and beyond. And we're extremely well poised for recovery.

大衛，我們將繼續專注於我們一直在製定的計劃。首先，關鍵在於創造現金流。我認為團隊在優先考慮現金流方面做得非常出色，儘管2025年盈利同比下降，但現金流的強勁增長勢頭依然明顯。而且我認為我們已經建立了正確的要素，可以使這種勢頭在 2026 年及以後繼續下去。我們已做好充分準備迎接復甦。

So our focus really continues to be on using debt and we've been able to refinance our bonds and continue to pay off what is right in front of us. So given the fact that our maturities now coming up over the next couple of years are significantly lower than they were and the cash generation that we have from the business as well as what we have coming from divestitures, we believe, is strong. We feel like we're in a really good position.

因此，我們的重點仍然是利用債務，我們已經能夠對債券進行再融資，並繼續償還擺在我們面前的債務。鑑於未來幾年即將到期的債務比以前少得多，而且我們從業務中獲得的現金流以及從資產剝離中獲得的現金流，我們認為，我們的財務狀況十分強勁。我們覺得自己處境非常有利。

Very clear. And just on (inaudible), what are you seeing for pricing in your contracts 2026?

非常清楚。還有（聽不清楚），你們2026年的合約定價狀況如何？

Very little change in contract pricing, David. And I would say in more of the spot part of the business, that's where we've seen more competition with the additional capacity that came on in the market last year, which drove the actions that we're taking. And I think the team with the action we announced last quarter about the Lanaken plant closure, we're going to be able to drive enhanced cost benefit into the business of about $20 million to $25 million on a full year basis, of which we should see about $5 million to $10 million of that this year, and we're trying to bring as much of that forward as possible.

戴維，合約價格幾乎沒有變動。而且我認為，在現貨業務方面，隨著去年市場上新增產能的增加，我們看到了更大的競爭，這也促使我們採取了相應的行動。我認為，憑藉我們上個季度宣布的關於關閉拉納肯工廠的行動，我們將能夠為公司帶來約 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的成本效益，其中今年應該能實現約 500 萬至 1000 萬美元，我們正在努力盡可能提前實現這些效益。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗集團。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I guess first, just on the sequential improvement in Engineered Materials, both from a volume and mix perspective, can you just parse out which end markets are starting to stabilize and unpack some of the broader macro assumptions for 2026?

早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。首先，我想就工程材料在數量和結構方面的持續改善，您能否分析哪些終端市場開始趨於穩定，並闡述 2026 年的一些更廣泛的宏觀假設？

What I would say is electronics is what I would say the bright spot right now, Patrick. I said it's a net positive on a global basis. We're seeing a global build-out from AI as well as data centers, and that's positive in the electronics space, but it's a small part of the overall base of the business. So certainly, auto is a much larger piece of the base, and the business is going to trend kind of where that goes at least at this point.

派崔克，我認為電子產品是目前最亮眼的領域。我說過，從全球範圍來看，這總體上是利大於弊的。我們看到人工智慧和資料中心在全球範圍內不斷擴張，這對電子產業來說是件好事，但這只佔整個業務基礎的一小部分。所以，汽車產​​業無疑佔據了更大的市場份額，至少在目前來看，整個產業的趨勢將會與汽車產業的發展方向保持一致。

And I would say auto is more mixed. You've got some uncertainty in China with some of the EV credits and stimulus rolling off in China to start the year. So we've seen some softness in auto in China. Europe has been relatively stable to start the year. And in US, with the fleet mix becoming a little more certain and a focus of the OEMs around ICE and hybrids, that could be a net good thing for us. But I would say, to start the year, it's about as expected.

我覺得汽車業的情況比較複雜。今年年初，中國的一些電動車補貼和刺激措施陸續出台，這帶來了一些不確定性。所以我們看到中國汽車市場出現了一些疲軟跡象。今年年初，歐洲局勢相對穩定。在美國，隨著車隊組成變得更加確定，汽車製造商也更加關注內燃機和混合動力汽車，這對我們來說可能是一件好事。但就年初而言，我覺得一切都在預期中。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then with halfway to your $1 billion divestiture target, just any ideas on timing, potential assets that you'd look to explore to achieve that divestiture proceeds target?

知道了。那很有幫助。那麼，在距離10億美元的資產剝離目標完成一半時，對於時機和潛在資產，您有什麼想法來實現這個剝離收益目標嗎？

And just to kind of restate, we called out $1 billion by the end of 2027. And to your point, we're about halfway there. We feel like -- we feel good about getting a deal done this year -- another deal done this year, and we feel very good about achieving or exceeding that target by the end of '27. And again, we're prioritizing parts of the business that don't fit the core operating models of Engineered Materials or Acetyl Chain. And that does kind of lead you to a heavier focus on some of the joint ventures, as we've talked about in past quarters.

再次重申一下，我們先前的目標是到 2027 年底達到 10 億美元。正如你所說，我們已經完成了一半。我們感覺——我們對今年達成一筆交易感到滿意——今年又達成了一筆交易，而且我們對在 2027 年底之前實現或超過該目標感到非常有信心。再次強調，我們將優先發展那些不符合工程材料或乙醯鏈核心營運模式的業務部分。正如我們在過去幾季中所討論的那樣，這確實會讓我們更加關註一些合資企業。

So we have what I would say is a pretty robust slate of things that are being worked. But it's hard to get deals done in this environment. But I'm proud of the team for what we did on Micromax, the speed at which we started that process to when we got it closed was approximately nine months, which is pretty fast in any M&A market. And so we're going to continue to work this with a sense of urgency.

所以，我認為我們正在推動一系列相當完善的項目。但這種環境下很難達成交易。但我為團隊在Micromax收購案中的表現感到自豪，從啟動收購流程到完成收購，大約只花了九個月時間，這在任何併購市場都是相當快的。因此，我們將繼續以緊迫感推進這項工作。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. When you take a step back and look at 2025, I think in the Acetyl Chain, your adjusted EBIT was down about $400 million, and your engineered materials was down about $120 million. How do you analyze those changes? That is -- how do you see the larger factors that were at work in those changes?

非常感謝。當你回顧到 2025 年，我認為在乙醯基鏈中，你的調整後息稅前利潤下降了約 4 億美元，工程材料下降了約 1.2 億美元。您如何分析這些變化？也就是說——您如何看待促成這些變化的更大因素？

Yes. Let me start with acetyls, Jeff. Of that, it was pretty much all driven by volume and price. And you got a mix element that goes into that. So it's largely split relatively evenly between those two, of which a good chunk of that was driven by the acetate tow business. And so that was -- I would say, from a product line perspective, that was the bigger chunk.

是的。傑夫，我先從乙醯基說起。其中，幾乎完全是由銷售和價格驅動的。其中也包含一些混合元素。因此，這兩者之間大致平分秋色，其中很大一部分是由醋酸纖維絲束業務推動的。所以，從產品線的角度來看，這部分佔比更大。

We did see some margin compression from China as well that went into that. And then the balance was really driven by Western Hemisphere volume. We didn't have as much margin compression in the non-tow part of the portfolio in the Western Hemisphere. So those are the biggest components in Acetyl Chain.

我們也看到來自中國的利潤率下降，這也包含了一些影響。然後，這種平衡實際上是由西半球的交易量決定的。在西半球非拖船業務的投資組合中，我們的利潤率壓縮並不嚴重。這些就是乙醯鏈的主要組成部分。

In Engineered Materials, volume and price were both, I would say, semi equal overall in terms of how much they were down, and then it was offset by cost. And we had some cost benefit in acetyls as well. But those are the largest drivers, I would say, overall, in both businesses. It really comes down to above the line variable margin.

在工程材料領域，我認為銷售和價格總體上基本持平，降幅相當，但成本卻抵消了這些降幅。而且我們在乙醯基方面也獲得了一些成本效益。但我認為，總體而言，這些是這兩個行業最大的驅動因素。歸根結底，關鍵在於線上可變邊距。

And then for 2026, is your base case that you can get some EBIT growth out of Engineered Materials, but the Acetyl Chain might be challenged to grow in 2026, or do you have a different approach? And what are the key markets that you really need to have improved in order for Celanese to excel in 2026?

那麼對於 2026 年，您的基本假設是工程材料業務可以實現一定的 EBIT 成長，但乙醯基鏈業務在 2026 年的成長可能會面臨挑戰，還是您有不同的方法？那麼，為了讓塞拉尼斯在 2026 年取得卓越成就，您認為真正需要改進的關鍵市場有哪些？

Yeah, Jeff, when we started 2025, we talked internally in the organization, kind of a mantra around act now and win together. And I think it was really that action orientation that was important with a focus on cost reduction and free cash flow generation. This year, we're still going with act now win together and grow.

是的，傑夫，當我們開始製定 2025 年計劃時，我們在組織內部進行了討論，這有點像一個口號，那就是立即行動，共同獲勝。我認為真正重要的是這種行動導向，重點在於降低成本和創造自由現金流。今年，我們仍會秉持「立即行動，攜手共贏，共同成長」的理念。

That growth piece that you highlight is important. And I do believe Engineered Materials in the current demand backdrop has more controllable ways to grow through our pipeline model. It doesn't mean we won't be able to drive growth in Acetyl Chain. I just think that the groundwork that we've been laying in Engineered Materials and our ability to drive innovation and partner with customers and designers and engineers around innovative solutions, just we have more degrees of freedom to do that in Engineered Materials.

你提到的那個成長點很重要。而且我相信，在當前的需求背景下，工程材料可以透過我們的產品線模式以更可控的方式成長。但這並不意味著我們就無法推動 Acetyl Chain 的成長。我認為，我們在工程材料領域打下的基礎，以及我們推動創新、與客戶、設計師和工程師合作開發創新解決方案的能力，使我們在工程材料領域擁有更大的自由度來做到這一點。

It's likely to be in the higher growth areas like electronics that I called out earlier, elements of automotive continuing to penetrate in higher-margin areas in China and then continuing to partner with our customers on innovation into kind of the what is now the chosen fleet mix here in the Western world. So those are the big elements. I do think we'll have some growth in medical as well. But I would say electronics and elements of automotive are going to be the key components.

很可能是在像我之前提到的電子產品等高成長領域，汽車產業的某些元素繼續滲透到中國利潤較高的地區，然後繼續與我們的客戶合作進行創新，最終形成目前西方世界選擇的車隊組合。以上就是主要因素。我認為醫療領域也會有一些成長。但我認為電子產品和汽車零件將是關鍵組成部分。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

This is Turner Hinrichs on for Vince. I'm just wondering, could you provide more color around your expectations for higher than the first half earnings and whether you still expect to see $1 to $2 of EPS uplift versus 2025?

這是特納·欣里希斯替補文斯上場。我想問一下，您能否詳細說明一下您對上半年盈利高於預期收益的預期，以及您是否仍然預期每股收益會比 2025 年增長 1 到 2 美元？

Thanks for the question, Turner. Our team is still focused on $1 to $2 of lift. As I talked about in Engineered Materials, it's going to be around driving growth there and getting volumetric growth continuing to push price where we can and the team continues to be focused on doing that in the pockets of the business where we can achieve it, then also continuing to drive our cost-reduction programs. In Acetyl Chain, it is about looking for those opportunities where the supply-demand balance, we can be opportunistic around to be able to drive volume and price and start moving kind of the sequentially on a quarterly basis back in a more positive direction.

謝謝你的提問，特納。我們的團隊仍專注於提升每公升1到2美元的成本。正如我在工程材料部分所談到的，我們將圍繞著推動該領域的成長和銷售成長展開，繼續盡可能地推高價格，團隊將繼續專注於在業務中能夠實現這一目標的領域這樣做，同時繼續推進我們的成本削減計劃。在 Acetyl Chain，關鍵在於尋找供需平衡的機會，我們可以抓住這些機會來推動銷售和價格，並開始按季度逐步朝著更積極的方向發展。

Look, since the last time we spoke, there's been some things that changed. Our interest expense is likely to be relatively flat on the P&L year-over-year. I think how we model out our inventory draw this year, it's likely to have some amount of P&L impact. And then the demand backdrop is certainly not at least right now, where we were in the middle part of last year. And if we return to that, then certainly, that would be a really nice tailwind.

你看，自從我們上次談話以來，有些事情已經改變了。我們的利息支出在損益表中可能與去年同期基本持平。我認為，我們今年對庫存消耗的建模方式可能會對損益表產生一定影響。而且，目前的需求環境肯定不如去年年中好。如果我們回到那個方向，當然會是一個非常好的順風。

So it's -- I do think that we are working a plan to be able to drive growth here this year. And certainly, if we get any help whatsoever from the macro, we are leveraged to be able to move up very quickly from an EPS perspective. I'll just kind of remind you that a 1% improvement in volume in the Acetyl Chain is about $15 million to $20 million a year and a 1% improvement in volume in EM is about $20 million to $25 million a year. So these are small changes drive significant uplift for the business.

所以——我認為我們正在製定計劃，以便今年能夠推動這裡的成長。當然，如果我們能從宏觀經濟中獲得任何幫助，我們就有能力從每股盈餘的角度來看迅速提升。我只是想提醒您，乙醯鏈產量提高 1% 每年可帶來約 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的收入，而 EM 產量提高 1% 每年可帶來約 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的收入。因此，這些微小的改變就能為業務帶來顯著的提升。

Great. Great. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the color. Also, when thinking about the difference between first quarter and second quarter earnings, I'm wondering whether we need to reverse the $30 million inventory tailwind that's benefiting 1Q as well as the size of the polyacetyl turnaround and any other bridge items that you might call out?

偉大的。偉大的。這很有道理。謝謝你提供的色彩。另外，在考慮第一季度和第二季度收益之間的差異時，我想知道我們是否需要扭轉第一季受益的 3000 萬美元庫存利好因素，以及聚乙醯基改造項目的規模和您可能提到的任何其他過渡項目？

I think that's probably the right assumption, Turner, is that $30 million benefit we're going to get is going to likely dry out there in the second quarter. And we are going to have some turnaround -- higher turnaround expense certainly in Q2. So I think with the dividend coming back in the second quarter, all of those things relatively even out. I mean, Q2 flattish to Q1.

特納，我認為這個假設可能是正確的，那就是我們將獲得的 3000 萬美元收益很可能在第二季就會耗盡。我們將面臨一些調整——第二季調整費用肯定會更高。所以我覺得隨著第二季恢復分紅，所有這些因素都會相對平衡。我的意思是，第二季與第一季基本持平。

And certainly, depending on where the demand environment is, you might get some equal benefit. But until we have better line of sight to that, I don't know that flattish is the wrong way to think about Q2. As we called out in the prepared remarks, we do believe this year is going to be more second half weighted just because of that turnaround activity that we've got in the second quarter.

當然，根據需求環境的不同，你也可能會獲得類似的利益。但是，在我們對此有更清晰的認識之前，我不知道用「平坦」來形容第二季是否是錯的。正如我們在準備好的演講稿中提到的那樣，我們認為今年下半年的業績會更加突出，這主要是因為我們在第二季採取了扭轉局面的措施。

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

Good afternoon, everybody. Scott, just on the Acetyl Chain and just zooming out a little bit and think about EBIT margins, which were sort of mid-teens last year versus the previous trend line in the mid-20s, how much of that differential do you think is cyclical versus something having changed in terms of, obviously, supply coming on and also some of the challenges that you're seeing on acetate tow in the spot market?

大家下午好。Scott，就乙醯鏈而言，我們稍微放眼更廣闊的領域，想想息稅前利潤率，去年大概在十幾個百分點，而之前的趨勢線在二十幾個百分點左右，你認為這種差異有多少是周期性的，又有多少是由於供應方面的變化，以及你在現貨市場看到的醋酸鹽纖維束的一些挑戰造成的？

Yeah, Ghansham, how I view these things in our business over the last 20 years, we've seen structural changes. We saw -- and these could be headwinds; they can be tailwinds. And shale gas revolution in the US certainly was a structural change. The market -- the industry didn't get the benefit of that overnight. It's actions that we're taking to be able to take advantage of those structural changes.

是的，Ghansham，就我觀察，在過去的 20 年裡，我們公司發生了結構性的變化。我們看到──這些可能是逆風，也可能是順風。美國的頁岩氣革命無疑是結構性變革。市場——乃至整個產業，並沒有在一夜之間從中受益。我們正在採取這些行動，以便能夠利用這些結構性變化。

We saw overcapacity in China, for example, come into the market the first time, 2009 through 2017, and it was actions and business model changes that we and others made to be able to drive a more sustainable and higher level of earnings. And certainly, even today, where we sit now in the current market with overcapacity and where it is in acetyls, the underlying business today is better than it was during 2012 and 2013.

例如，我們看到中國產能過剩問題在 2009 年至 2017 年間首次出現，而正是我們和其他人採取的行動和商業模式變革，才使得企業能夠實現更可持續、更高水平的盈利。當然，即使在今天，儘管我們目前處於產能過剩的市場環境，乙醯基產品也面臨困境，但如今的業務基礎仍然比 2012 年和 2013 年要好。

So I think it really is about how we, as a company, respond to changes that we see in the market. I do believe that through those changes, you will see things start to move back up. Now each cycle is different. Each cycle is shorter or longer, and nobody can really predict how long it will last. But it is about responding to those changes that we see.

所以我覺得關鍵在於我們公司如何因應市場變化。我相信，透過這些改變，你會看到情況開始好轉。現在每個週期都不一樣了。每個週期長短不一，誰也無法真正預測它會持續多久。但關鍵在於如何應對我們所看到的這些變化。

On the Engineered Materials side, we've seen changes as well. The move from ICE to EV in China, in particular, is a big structural change. It's not likely to change. We have to adapt to that. We have to change. We have to respond to that from a market perspective, and we have to continue to drive efficiency in our own business so that when we see small incremental changes in volume that I talked about earlier, those underlying margins are higher in the future than they were in the past.

在工程材料方面，我們也看到了一些變化。尤其在中國，從內燃機汽車轉向電動車的轉變是一項重大的結構性變革。這種情況不太可能改變。我們必須適應這一點。我們必須改變。我們必須從市場角度對此做出回應，並且必須繼續提高我們自身業務的效率，這樣，當我們看到我之前提到的銷售量小幅成長時，未來的潛在利潤率就會比過去更高。

Okay. Got it. And maybe a question for Chuck on free cash flow. Obviously, 2025 working capital was big for the year in terms of driving the free cash flow performance there. What are you embedding for 2026 for working capital? And just more broadly, what's defining your confidence on free cash flow relative to what seems to be a pretty challenged operating environment at least for the first half of the year? Thanks.

好的。知道了。或許可以問查克一個關於自由現金流的問題。顯然，2025 年的營運資本對當年的自由現金流表現起了很大的推動作用。你們為2026年的營運資金做了哪些規劃？更廣泛地說，鑑於今年上半年的經營環境似乎相當具有挑戰性，是什麼因素決定了您對自由現金流的信心？謝謝。

No, thanks, Ghansham. I think what's driving our confidence is our ability to pull levers to generate free cash flow in all demand environments. So you mentioned working capital. It was very strong in '25 [to 390 million]. We are targeting another $100 million, Ghansham, primarily from further inventory reductions.

不，謝謝你，甘沙姆。我認為我們信心的來源是我們有能力在各種需求環境下透過各種手段創造自由現金流。你剛才提到了營運資金。1925 年非常強勁（達到 3.9 億）。甘沙姆，我們的目標是再增加 1 億美元，主要來自進一步削減庫存。

Cash tax is going to be lower this year, $50 million to $60 million, cash interest down about $50 million, and the cash that will outlay for cost-reduction programs that are -- that's adjusted out of EBITDA. That will be lower by about $25 million to $50 million. So as you know, we plan for a number of different scenarios, Ghansham, and we feel confident that we can drive free cash into our target range that we provided, either through modest earnings growth or through these additional levers we know how to pull.

今年的現金稅款將減少 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元，現金利息支出將減少約 5,000 萬美元，用於成本削減計劃的現金支出——這部分已從 EBITDA 中調整。這將減少約2500萬美元至5000萬美元。如您所知，Ghansham，我們針對多種不同的情況制定了計劃，我們有信心透過適度的盈利增長或透過我們知道如何運用的這些額外手段，將自由現金流提升到我們設定的目標範圍內。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

Thank you very much. So firstly, I want to come back a little bit to the EPS growth this year and you have with your prepared remarks all the free cash flow, I guess, outlook and the puts and takes on free cash items. And it seems to us if you do some rough math that that points to probably net income or EPS change, EPS this year of around mid- to high 4s as a base case. Does that make sense? And are there any items we may be missing that would deviate -- that would make you guys deviate from that as a base case?

非常感謝。首先，我想稍微回到今年的每股盈餘成長上來，而您在準備好的發言稿中提到了自由現金流、展望以及對自由現金流專案的預期和展望。我們粗略計算了一下，這似乎表明淨收入或每股盈餘可能會發生變化，今年的每股盈餘基本上在 4 分中高段位左右。這樣說得通嗎？還有什麼我們可能遺漏的因素會導致你們的計算結果與基本情況有所不同嗎？

So how I look at it is our prioritization right now is around free cash flow and continuing to drive sustainable changes into our business models. As we look at the year, we've run a number of different areas on kind of where things could play out from a demand standpoint and then what that translates into EPS. And for us, that's -- we're confident in being able to generate that free cash flow between $650 million and $750 million. So there's a number of different EPS scenarios that get you to that number, just depending on the movements and timing and the fact that we're second half weighted, also certainly plays a little bit of a role just in terms of how much AR is sitting on the balance sheet as we model it out.

所以我認為，我們目前的優先事項是自由現金流，並繼續推動我們商業模式的可持續變革。展望今年，我們已經從需求的角度出發，對許多不同領域進行了分析，探討了這些領域可能會出現哪些變化，以及這些變化會如何影響每股盈餘。對我們來說，我們有信心產生 6.5 億美元至 7.5 億美元的自由現金流。因此，有許多不同的 EPS 情境可以達到這個數字，這取決於市場走勢和時間安排，而且由於我們採用的是下半年權重，這當然也會對我們建模時資產負債表上的應收帳款金額產生一定影響。

So all of those factors go into play in terms of how we model it. So we're not looking at a finite range right now. Our focus is on really driving and maximizing as much as we can and working to grow on a year-over-year basis with an emphasis on ensuring that we are delivering the cash flow.

因此，所有這些因素都會影響我們的建模方式。所以我們現在討論的並不是一個有限的範圍。我們的重點是真正推動和最大化我們所能做到的一切，並努力實現逐年增長，重點是確保我們能夠帶來現金流。

Okay. Perfect. And I wanted to ask a little bit about capacity additions on the nylon and the home chain, specifically because these are something you have to face in the past few years. Can you provide us with some information on what may be coming online, particularly in (inaudible) this change? And what is kind of your exposure given you moved away from some chains such as nylon polymerization? What would be your exposure if there's more capacity coming online in these chemistries?

好的。完美的。我想問一下關於尼龍和家庭供應鏈產能增加的問題，特別是因為這是你們在過去幾年不得不面對的問題。您能否提供一些關於即將上線的內容的信息，特別是關於（聽不清）這一變化的信息？鑑於您已不再從事尼龍聚合等某些產業鏈，您的風險敞口如何？如果這些化學品的產能進一步提高，您將面臨怎樣的風險？

So as we've talked about in the past, our focus really is to continue to build flexibility into our operating model in our nylon business as well as some of our other polymers. And that means being balanced in what we make, but also what we buy. And so the additional capacity that may come on in Asia and to be very honest, it's already overcapacitized in China, and we're taking advantage of that by buying as much polymer as possible because that's a more advantageous way for us to be able to supply our business in that region of the world. It is about being opportunistic and about building flexibility into our model. And what I would tell you is we are going to continue to evaluate options to be able to enhance and maximize profitability in all our value chains, including nylon.

正如我們過去所討論過的，我們的重點是繼續增強尼龍業務以及其他一些聚合物業務營運模式的靈活性。這意味著我們在生產和購買方面都要保持平衡。因此，亞洲可能會新增產能，坦白說，中國的產能已經過剩，我們正在利用這一點，盡可能多地購買聚合物，因為這對於我們向世界該地區供應業務來說是一種更有利的方式。關鍵在於把握機會，並在我們的模式中融入靈活性。我想告訴大家的是，我們將繼續評估各種方案，以提高和最大化我們所有價值鏈（包括尼龍）的獲利能力。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

Good morning. This is Kevin Estok on for Laurence. So just on working capital inventories again. Obviously, you're targeting additional reduction. And I guess I was wondering what guardrails are you sort of using to avoid any service issues, are there any specific product families, I guess, where inventory is still elevated? And maybe, I guess, what's the timeline to reach a steady-state inventory model?

早安.這裡是凱文·埃斯托克替勞倫斯報道。所以，我們再來談談營運資金存貨。顯然，你們的目標是進一步減少損失。我想知道你們採取了哪些措施來避免服務問題？是否存在庫存仍然較高的特定產品系列？那麼，我想問的是，達到穩定庫存模型的時間表是什麼？

So it's a very coordinated approach internally, right? We're never going to take too much risk on service levels and delivering to our customers, right? There's many different ways you can just inventories, you can use raw materials. You can change your offtake agreements, and you can reduce finished goods, right?

所以，這是內部非常協調一致的做法，對吧？我們絕不會在服務水準和向客戶交付產品方面冒太大風險，對吧？盤點庫存的方法有很多種，你可以使用原料。你可以更改承購協議，也可以減少成品數量，對吧？

So we're in a multiyear journey on that. So we don't ever like to think that we're done. We think we do have $100 million this year, but we're not going to stop there. There's a lot of efficiency that EM is driving within the organization and you're just going to need less and less inventory as you go forward, right? So it's a constant activity of ours, and we feel good about continuing that progress.

所以，我們將在這件事上經歷一個多年的過程。所以我們從來不願意認為我們已經完成了。我們認為今年能籌到 1 億美元，但我們不會止步於此。EM 為組織帶來了許多效率提升，隨著時間的推移，你們需要的庫存也會越來越少，對吧？所以這是我們一直在進行的工作，我們對繼續取得進展感到滿意。

Got it. Okay. Thanks. And then just as a follow-up. So on Acetate Tow, I guess, obviously, it's one of the biggest headwinds I guess, what are -- I know you touched on some of this already, but I'm just curious what the specific levers that, I guess, you can do to stabilize on basically like regional mix shifts any capacity actions, customer inventory normalization, contract resets, I mean -- and I guess when should we expect measurable improvement?

知道了。好的。謝謝。然後，作為後續。所以，關於醋酸鹽拖纜，我想，很明顯，這是最大的阻力之一。我知道您已經談到了一些，但我只是好奇，您能採取哪些具體措施來穩定局面，例如區域組合調整、產能調整、客戶庫存正常化、合約重置等等——我想我們應該什麼時候才能看到可衡量的改善？

Look, we're working this with a level of aggressiveness as we look at every element of the business, and you know, that includes cost structure. It also looks at how we go to market, our future contracts in this business, you have to take both a short-term view and a long-term view of how things are rolling in and rolling off. And so it is really about stabilization. We did see a decline.

你看，我們正在以積極進取的態度審視業務的每一個環節，你知道，這其中包括成本結構。它還考察了我們如何進入市場，我們在這個行業的未來合同，你必須從短期和長期兩個角度來看待事物的發展和消退。所以，關鍵在於穩定。我們確實看到了下滑趨勢。

I do think there has continued to be an element of destocking. I think there was a lot of inventory throughout the value chain in this business. I think that will probably take another quarter or so. So I think midyear where that evens out is our current estimation. And then you should get to a little bit more steady state, and I think get a little bit more balance here as we get into the middle part of the year.

我認為仍然存在一定的去庫存因素。我認為這家企業的價值鏈上存在大量庫存。我覺得可能還需要一個季度左右的時間。所以我認為，我們目前的估計是，到年中情況會趨於平衡。然後你應該會進入一個更穩定的狀態，我認為隨著我們進入年中，這裡會更加平衡一些。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Thanks. Good morning. There's a number of price increases that were announced in the polymers world. I wanted to ask you about your expectations for achieving those? And also, is the intent here to offset rising raw material costs or actually expand margins? Thank you.

謝謝。早安.聚合物領域宣布了一系列價格上漲措施。我想問您對實現這些目標有何預期？此外，此舉的目的是為了抵銷不斷上漲的原材料成本，還是為了擴大利潤空間？謝謝。

In some of these polymers, Aleksey, margins have got to where they are at unsustainable levels. And I think you can look at challenges we've seen in the industry, and you've seen some folks in the marketplace go into default, and I think that has just shown that things are at an unsustainable level.

阿列克謝，在某些聚合物中，利潤率已經達到了不可持續的水平。我認為，看看我們在這個行業中遇到的挑戰，就會發現市場上有些人違約了，我認為這恰恰表明，目前的狀況是不可持續的。

I'm proud of the way the team got ahead of this a few years ago by taking action in our footprint in our highest cost locations. And so that has certainly helped us be able to weather that storm. But as we go forward, the returns need to improve here. And so it really is about pushing to drive returns to just an acceptable level going forward, and the team continues to push that.

我為團隊幾年前就採取的行動感到自豪，他們搶佔先機，在成本最高的地區縮小了業務規模。因此，這無疑幫助我們度過了那場風暴。但展望未來，這裡的回報需要提高。因此，關鍵在於努力將收益提升到可接受的水平，而團隊也一直朝著這個目標努力。

I do think it's going to continue to be a -- it's going to take some time. It's going to be a step-by-step process. I wouldn't expect us to get all of it at once, but it is about continuing to work this as we are having dialogue with our customers.

我認為這還會繼續下去——這需要一些時間。這將是一個循序漸進的過程。我並不指望我們能一次全部實現，但關鍵在於我們與客戶保持對話，繼續推進這項工作。

Thank you. And as a follow-up, acetyl spreads have been a little better in China lately. What are your expectations for anti-value or any kind of rationalization in that country just based on your knowledge of what government might be thinking?

謝謝。另外，最近中國乙醯基價差的情況略有改善。根據你對該國政府可能想法的了解，你對該國的反價值觀念或任何形式的合理化有何預期？

As I mentioned before, I mean, we've gone through big overcapacity in the acetyl business in China in the past. When I was living there, in 2009, the first overcapacity came in, and we were in that period for a long time. I think the pattern of behavior that we've seen over the last year or so does kind of tend to trend with what we saw in the past, which is new capacity comes in. There's a lot of new capacity over the last couple of years.

正如我之前提到的，我的意思是，過去中國的乙醯基產業曾經出現過嚴重的產能過剩。2009 年我住在那裡的時候，第一次出現了住房超負荷的情況，而且這種情況持續了很長時間。我認為過去一年左右我們看到的行為模式確實與我們過去看到的情況有些相似，那就是新的產能不斷湧入。過去幾年新增了很多產能。

As those plants are starting up, they run at high rates that prove out the technology, but margins are unsustainable. And so rates come back down and margins move up a little bit. And so we certainly have seen that trend continue, and things have stabilized, I'd say, at higher, albeit still relatively low levels on a margin basis over the last eight weeks or so. So we're not forecasting huge lifts by any stretch of imagination. And the team will continue to kind of work near term and instantaneous opportunities on both a price and volume basis.

這些工廠在啟動初期會以很高的產能運行，以驗證技術，但利潤率是不可持續的。因此利率回落，利潤率略有上升。因此，我們確實看到這種趨勢仍在繼續，而且我認為，在過去八週左右的時間裡，情況已經趨於穩定，儘管利潤率仍然相對較低，但仍處於較高水平。所以，無論如何，我們都不預測會大幅成長。團隊將繼續從價格和數量兩個方面尋找近期和即時的機會。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Good morning. It's Aziza on for Frank. Scott, I was curious if maybe you can provide some thoughts on Chinese acetyls pricing as we progress through 2026?

早安.阿齊扎替補弗蘭克上場。Scott，我很好奇，您能否就2026年中國乙醯基化合物的定價問題談談您的看法？

Yes, Aziza, I mean, look, we're not going to forecast any huge uplift. I think we would expect things to stay in the range. They've been over the last several quarters. I mean, plus or minus kind of where they -- as I just said, we've kind of stabilized at these levels over the last eight weeks or so.

是的，阿齊扎，我的意思是，你看，我們不會預測會出現任何大幅成長。我認為我們應該預期價格會保持在正常範圍內。過去幾季他們一直都是這樣。我的意思是，上下浮動一點——就像我剛才說的，在過去的八週左右的時間裡，我們已經穩定在這些水平上了。

Demand right now is extremely low as we're in Chinese New Year. And this year's Lunar New Year is a longer holiday than what we typically see by a few extra days. So It'd be interesting to see how things come out. It's a later new year as well. But certainly, demand was relatively stable going into the New Year holiday, pricing held, and that doesn't always happen. Sometimes as you're getting into that new year period, pricing falls off. It stayed relatively stable as we went in.

由於正值春節期間，目前需求量極低。今年的農曆新年假期比往年長幾天。所以，看看事情最終會如何發展，應該會很有趣。今年的新年也比較晚。但可以肯定的是，進入新年假期後，需求相對穩定，價格也保持穩定，這種情況並不總是發生。有時，在新年來臨之際，價格會下降。我們進去的時候，水位基本上保持穩定。

So we'll see kind of where things come out, but we are not anticipating a really big uplift coming from Asia. As we look at recovery scenarios in the acetyl business, we tend to really look at Western Hemisphere only. And so those numbers I quoted earlier about a 1% improvement in volume being $15 million to $20 million, that's on Western Hemisphere only. That doesn't include any of the business in China. Just because I think with where overcapacity is, if we get upside on volume and price, we'll take it, but we're not going to necessarily bake that into our numbers.

所以我們會看看事情最終會如何發展，但我們預計亞洲不會帶來真正的大幅成長。當我們審視乙醯基產業的復甦前景時，我們往往只關注西半球。因此，我之前提到的銷量成長 1% 就能帶來 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元的收入，這只是西半球的情況。這不包括在中國的任何業務。我認為，鑑於目前的產能過剩狀況，如果我們能在銷售和價格上獲得上漲空間，我們會抓住機會，但我們不一定會把這些收益計入我們的預算中。

Got it. And also, regarding the second quarter POM turnaround, have you guys quantified the impact to the second quarter earnings?

知道了。另外，關於第二季POM業績的扭轉，你們有沒有量化對第二季獲利的影響？

No. I mean, what we said earlier is I think a number similar to the lift in that we called out of $30 million. So that's the right range. I mean, these -- typically, these turnarounds in the past were about every three or so years. We've worked really hard on our reliability over the last several years. So where we've been able to extend this to five years between these major turnarounds. So this is not something that certainly happens every year in the asset. And so it is a little bit larger than we would typically see, but it really is contained in the second quarter.

不。我的意思是，我們之前說的數字，我認為和我們之前提到的 3000 萬美元的提升計劃類似。所以這個範圍是正確的。我的意思是，這些——通常來說，過去這種轉變大約每三年左右就會發生一次。過去幾年，我們一直致力於提高系統的可靠性。因此，我們已經能夠將兩次重大轉變之間的間隔延長至五年。所以，這種情況並非每年都會在該資產中發生。因此，它比我們通常看到的要大一些，但實際上它只佔第二季的一部分。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global。

Good morning. Look, I wanted to revisit the $650 million to $750 million free cash flow guidance you guys provided. Look, I mean, it's anyone's guess what demand does, but if we were to take a draconian view and say that demand really doesn't improve much from Q4 levels, what does that do to the guidance and all the other aspects baked into it, meaning the $100 million sort of working capital uplift that you guys guided to and the like?

早安.我想再次確認你們之前給出的 6.5 億美元至 7.5 億美元的自由現金流預期。你看，我的意思是，需求會如何變化誰也說不準，但如果我們採取一種非常保守的假設，認為需求實際上並沒有比第四季度水平有太大改善，那麼這會對業績指引以及其中包含的所有其他方面產生什麼影響呢？例如你們之前預測的1億美元營運資金成長等等？

First of all, Hassan, I would never refer to you as draconian by any stretch of imagination. So look, not to be repetitive, but I'm going to kind of go back, we model out a lot of different scenarios, kind of that low-demand scenario, higher-demand scenarios. I mean, we kind of look at different permutations.

首先，哈桑，無論如何，我絕對不會用「嚴苛」來形容你。所以，我不想重複，但我還是要回到之前說的，我們模擬了許多不同的場景，像是低需求場景、高需求場景。我的意思是，我們會考慮不同的排列組合。

We also -- you also have to plot timing. And so as we kind of look at that, you end up range finding for where you think you can move on cash flow given the other actions that you can take and how AR and inventory can move and what you can do through the year. And so we kind of range find for that. We do feel very confident in that $650 million to $750 million range that we put out there.

我們也——你也需要安排好時間。因此，當我們仔細審視這個問題時，最終會發現，考慮到你可以採取的其他措施、應收帳款和庫存的變動以及你一年中可以採取的行動，你認為現金流可以達到的水平範圍是多少。所以我們就需要進行某種範圍查找。我們對我們提出的 6.5 億美元至 7.5 億美元範圍非常有信心。

Understood. Understood. And just moving on, again, as it relates to sort of debt paydowns and the like, I mean, you guys seem pretty comfortable with the incremental $500 million of sort of asset sales. So a, what gives you that comfort to achieve that by 2027? And b, if need be, could that number actually be higher?

明白了。明白了。再說一遍，關於償還債務之類的事情，我的意思是，你們似乎對額外 5 億美元的資產出售感到非常滿意。那麼，是什麼讓您有信心在 2027 年實現這一目標呢？b，如有需要，這個數字實際上是否可以更高？

I mean, we're aggressively pursuing additional divestitures. As Scott mentioned, we feel good about getting another one of those done. There's a lot of things that we can look at. We're -- that's part of our cash generation. That's part of our debt paydown strategy. That's a probability weighted number. So theoretically that could end up at a higher number, but we're targeting right now $1 billion total by the end of 2027 to help us deleverage the balance sheet.

我的意思是，我們正在積極尋求進一步的資產剝離。正如斯科特所說，我們感覺很有希望再完成一次這樣的項目。有很多方面我們可以考慮。這是我們現金流的一部分。這是我們償還債務策略的一部分。這是一個經過機率加權的數值。所以理論上最終可能會達到更高的數字，但我們現在的目標是到 2027 年底達到 10 億美元，以幫助我們降低資產負債率。

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥可西森，富國銀行。

Sorry about that. You sort of noted that the Western Hemisphere acetyl margins are better or holding up better. How much of your business is Eastern? And is there any reason to be there longer term? I mean, this trough in the Eastern Hemisphere has been pretty deep. Does it make sense to reduce some capacity for that area longer term?

抱歉。你似乎已經注意到西半球的乙醯化邊緣更好或保持得更好。你們的業務有多少來自東部地區？那麼，有理由長期待在那裡嗎？我的意思是，東半球的這個低谷相當深。從長遠來看，減少該地區的部分產能是否合理？

Mike, you've known us for a long time. You know that we look at every option on the table, and we continue to look at what the short-term needs of the business are and balance that with where we think we need to be long term. And we will look at what the footprint in both businesses needs to look like and what the right match is. So I would say we're constantly evaluating where we need to be and how we need to be operating the assets. And the acetyl team continues to pivot there. We're block operating the Frankfurt VAM unit, block operating the Singapore acetic acid unit as well and just for that very purpose and finding ways at which to be more efficient and squeeze out costs.

麥克，你認識我們很久了。你知道，我們會考慮所有可行的方案，我們會不斷檢視企業的短期需求，並以此為基礎平衡企業長期發展的需求。我們將研究兩家公司需要具備的業務規模，以及最適合的配對方案。所以我認為我們一直在評估我們需要達到的目標以及我們需要如何運作這些資產。乙醯基團隊繼續朝著這個方向發展。我們正在對法蘭克福 VAM 裝置和新加坡醋酸裝置進行集中運營，目的就是為了提高效率、降低成本。

Got it. And then if you take a look, as we head in the second half and we sort of sat here last year thinking things couldn't get worse. But if there are areas within EM or the Acetyl Chain that that could get worse, what do you think it could be? And it does sound like things are more stable sequentially at least. But what are the things we need to watch out for if things could potentially get worse on the macro side for you?

知道了。然後，如果你仔細看看，當我們進入下半場時，我們去年還覺得情況不可能更糟了。但是，如果 EM 或乙醯鏈中存在某些區域可能會惡化，你認為會是什麼區域？聽起來至少在順序上情況更穩定了。但如果宏觀經濟情勢可能惡化，我們需要注意哪些方面呢？

Mike, we're not going to take anything for granted, and we're going to continue to evaluate, take bold actions across the portfolio. We knew as we started last year, that we needed to kind of reset the growth mindset in Engineered Materials. And I feel like Todd Elliott and the team have done a great job of building the pipeline and refocusing commercially on those areas where we can really drive high-quality wins and making sure our time is being spent there with a focus on quality over quantity.

麥克，我們不會掉以輕心，我們將繼續評估，並在整個投資組合中採取大膽的行動。去年我們剛開始的時候就知道，我們需要在工程材料領域重新調整成長思維模式。我覺得 Todd Elliott 和他的團隊在建立產品線和重新聚焦商業領域方面做得非常出色，這些領域我們能夠真正取得高品質的成功，並確保我們將時間花在這些領域，注重品質而不是數量。

And I think that is really going to start to pay off for us as we work our way through 2026. And we're going to continue to evaluate the cost side of the equation in both businesses as well as from a corporate perspective because I do think it is really about how we generate operating leverage going forward. And so those are our priorities, with cash as being kind of that keen focus and delivery of our cash target.

我認為，隨著我們逐步推進到 2026 年，這將真正開始為我們帶來回報。我們將繼續從業務和公司層級評估成本問題，因為我認為這確實關乎我們未來如何產生營運槓桿。因此，這些就是我們的優先事項，其中現金是我們重點關注和實現現金目標的關鍵。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Thank you and good morning. Scott, in explaining the volume decline of 6% in the quarter, I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks last night that the destocking and seasonality were kind of greater than expected. And so I wonder if you could comment on the degree to which you've seen any rebound or temporary restocking in January and early February, ahead of the Lunar New Year? Or has it been mixed or just not happening? Just looking for any additional color on kind of incremental volume stability or improvement as you see it.

謝謝，早安。斯科特，在解釋本季銷量下降 6% 的原因時，我想你在昨晚的準備發言稿中提到過，去庫存和季節性因素的影響比預期的要大。所以我想知道您能否就1月和2月初（農曆新年之前）的庫存反彈或暫時補貨情況發表一下看法？或者情況比較複雜，或者根本沒有發生？我只是想了解您對音量穩定性或改進方面是否有任何補充說明。

Let me start with Acetyl Chain. I think we've seen some moderate seasonal improvement largely in the coatings space, and we'll see kind of where things hunt out as we get into March and April, which tends to be when demand moves up higher. So I would say that it's moderate at this point. We haven't seen substantial change positively in the acetate tow side of the equation there in acetyls.

讓我先從乙醯鏈開始。我認為我們已經看到塗料領域出現了一些溫和的季節性改善，我們將看看隨著三月和四月的到來，市場會如何發展，因為這段時間往往是需求上升的時候。所以我覺得目前情況比較溫和。在乙醯基中，我們還沒有看到等式中乙酸酯兩邊發生實質的正面變化。

In Engineered Materials, what we called out last quarter was that we knew we were going to see some destocking from our channel partners here in the Americas. We're starting to see that come back to the order book. And we've seen seasonal improvement in spaces like automotive in the Western Hemisphere improve to start the quarter. So that is pretty much as expected and as is typical as we see from Q4 to Q1.

在工程材料領域，我們在上個季度指出，我們知道我們在美洲的通路夥伴將會進行一些去庫存。我們開始看到訂單量回升了。我們看到，西半球汽車等領域的季節性改善在本季初有所改善。所以這基本上符合預期，也是我們從第四季到第一季通常看到的現象。

Okay. And then to follow up on your divestiture efforts, it sounds like the focus or at least one of the focus areas would be your joint ventures. You've got quite a few of them, I think. Maybe can you provide any color as to where you are in that process? And whether or not we might expect something this year or more likely next year? Are you looking at multiple JVs or focusing on a primary target? Any color there would be helpful.

好的。至於你的資產剝離工作，聽起來重點或至少其中一個重點領域是你的合資企業。我想你有很多這樣的照片。您能否簡要說明一下您目前進展到什麼階段了？我們今年是否有可能看到一些成果，或者更有可能的是明年？您是考慮多個合資項目，還是專注於一個主要目標？任何顏色都會有所幫助。

What I would tell you, Kevin, is we are looking at a lot of different things, and we have a pretty robust portfolio of options of varying sizes, some small, some getting a little closer to the size of Micromax. And as Chuck mentioned earlier, we probability weight that.

凱文，我想告訴你的是，我們正在研究很多不同的東西，我們擁有相當豐富的不同規模的選擇方案，有些規模較小，有些規模則接近 Micromax 的水平。正如 Chuck 之前提到的，我們會對此進行機率加權。

We feel good about getting another deal done here in 2026. I don't know exactly where it will fall in the size spectrum. It might be a smaller one, but certainly would be attractive, even if it's small. So we are kind of working all elements. It may be that it takes a few of these deals to get to the target and maybe it takes one deal. So it just -- it kind of depends upon how these things materialize here over the course of the next 1.5 years.

我們有信心在 2026 年在這裡達成另一項協議。我不知道它的尺寸具體會處於什麼位置。它可能個頭較小，但即使個子小，也肯定會很有吸引力。所以我們正在努力解決所有問題。或許需要達成幾筆這樣的交易才能達到目標，或許只需要一筆交易就能達成。所以，這在某種程度上取決於這些事情在未來一年半如何發展。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

Good morning. I want to just ask on the earnings in Engineered Materials. If I kind of take your comments on first half, your EBIT is maybe around $200 million a quarter on average. Looking at last year, it's kind of similar levels to what we saw in 2Q, 3Q, I'm obviously ignoring seasonality in the weaker 1Q a year ago. But I'm just wondering that we're not seeing some of the cost initiatives really come through.

早安.我想問一下工程材料產業的收益狀況。如果我大致採納你對上半年的評價，那麼你的息稅前利潤平均每季可能在 2 億美元左右。回顧去年，情況與第二季、第三季的水平大致相同，我顯然忽略了去年第一季疲軟的季節性因素。但我只是疑惑，為什麼我們看不到一些成本控制措施真正奏效。

You're talking about them more second half, but you've been talking about the cost initiatives for six, nine months now. So why aren't we seeing it as much in the first half? And why does it take to the second half on the cadence of timing? And then when you talk about the new products and the higher margins, kind of the same thing, like when do we start to really see more of this, and why not now?

下半年你們談到了更多這些，但你們已經談論成本控制措施六到九個月了。那為什麼我們在上半場沒有看到那麼多這種情況呢？為什麼節奏要到下半場才會開始改變？然後，當你談到新產品和更高的利潤率時，其實也是同樣的問題，例如我們什麼時候才能真正看到更多這樣的產品出現，為什麼不是現在呢？

Josh, I'm going to respectfully disagree with you. I think you're definitely seeing it roll through. We are in a much lower-demand environment today in that business than where we were in the middle part of last year. And we're still performing at very similar levels. And that really is coming from the mix improvement we've seen as well as the cost reductions the business is taking, and we're going to continue to drive that forward.

喬希，恕我直言，我不同意你的看法。我覺得你一定已經感受到它的影響了。如今，我們這個產業的市場需求遠低於去年年中時的水準。我們目前的業績仍然保持在非常相似的水平。這確實得益於我們所看到的產品組合的改善以及公司正在採取的成本削減措施，我們將繼續推進這一進程。

As I said, there's such a leverage on volume in this business, with a 1% change kind of being $5-plus million a quarter, the amount of change that we've seen in that business is sizable on a year-over-year basis, volumetrically. So it really is about continuing to improve the underlying fundamentals of this business and those small incremental changes in the demand are going to flow right back to the bottom line.

正如我所說，這個行業對銷售的槓桿作用非常大，1% 的變化就相當於一個季度 500 多萬美元，我們在這個行業看到的銷量同比變化幅度相當可觀。所以，關鍵在於持續改善這項業務的基本面，而需求的這些細微變化最終都會轉化為利潤成長。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗銀行。

Thank you. Have you actually guided for the China to dividend expected for the final three quarters of 2026 in your free cash flow range?

謝謝。您是否已在自由現金流範圍內明確指出，預計中國業務將在 2026 年最後三個季度派發股息？

Yeah, John, I think pretty flat to last year is what to expect, that $40-ish million a quarter.

是的，約翰，我認為預計今年的收入將與去年持平，每季約 4000 萬美元。

Okay. And then you once explored some consolidation opportunities in the does the contraction in the industry increase the chance of revisiting further consolidation maybe in a different form or different partner than what you earlier pursued?

好的。然後，您曾經探索過一些整合機會，那麼行業的萎縮是否會增加您重新考慮進一步整合的可能性，也許會以不同的形式或與不同的合作夥伴進行整合，而不是像您之前那樣？

I don't know that the landscape has changed considerably, John, overall, in terms of the fundamentals. But look, we are always very open to options in all of our businesses. And so we explore every opportunity that might be out there. But I think on tow, I just don't know that the fundamentals have changed enough to change that outcome.

約翰，就基本面而言，我不認為整體情況發生了顯著變化。但是，我們始終對所有業務中的各種選擇持開放態度。因此，我們會探索每一個可能存在的機會。但我認為，就拖車而言，我並不確定基本面是否已經發生了足夠的變化來改變這個結果。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Good morning. This is Adam on for Arun. Thanks for taking our question. If I could ask maybe Ghansham's question in another way, it seems like the working capital management change for '26 is almost a $300 million headwind. And you talked about some benefits from lower cash, about $25 million, taxes lower by [4 50]. Is the balance of that from earnings improvement? And if not, where is that coming from? And how much earnings improvement are you really expecting to impact to free cash flow? Thanks.

早安.這是亞當替阿倫報道。感謝您回答我們的問題。如果我換個方式問 Ghansham 的問題，2026 年的營運資本管理變化似乎會帶來近 3 億美元的不利影響。您還談到了一些好處，例如現金減少約2500萬美元，稅收減少。[4 50]剩餘部分是否來自獲利改善？如果不是，那又是從哪裡來的呢？您預期獲利改善究竟會對自由現金流產生多大影響？謝謝。

Thanks, Adam. Yes, you're right. I mean, the working capital headwind year-over-year is sizable and some other things that have offset it, as you mentioned. But again, I'll say again, we feel good about driving free cash flow into that range, either through modest earnings or through further levers if we see a lower demand scenario play out. It's very similar to what we did this year in 2025. So we're confident in that range.

謝謝你，亞當。是的，你說得對。我的意思是，營運資金同比下降幅度很大，但正如你所提到的，也有一些其他因素抵消了這種影響。但我再次重申，我們有信心將自由現金流提升到該水平，無論是透過適度的獲利，還是如果需求下降的情況出現，我們將採取進一步的措施。這和我們今年在 2025 年所做的事情非常相似。所以我們對這個範圍很有信心。

Okay. Great. And apologies if I've missed this, but have you guys outlined in terms of a cost benefit from the Lanaken closure kind of market impact aside?

好的。偉大的。如果我錯過了什麼，請見諒，但你們有沒有從成本效益的角度，撇開拉納肯礦關閉對市場的影響不談？

So Lanaken closure for us is going to be about a $20 million, $25 million cost benefit on a full year basis and about $5 million to $10 million of that we expect to get this year.

因此，拉納肯工廠的關閉將為我們帶來大約 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的全年成本效益，其中大約 500 萬至 1000 萬美元我們預計今年就能獲得。

Well, thank you, everyone. We'd like to thank everyone for listening in to today's call. And as always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions. [Darryl], with that, let's please go ahead and close out the call.

謝謝大家。感謝大家收聽今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，通話結束後我們隨時解答您的任何後續問題。 [達裡爾]，那麼，我們就可以結束今天的通話了。

Thank you so much, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We appreciate your participation. Enjoy the rest of your day.

非常感謝各位女士、先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。祝您今天餘下的時間愉快。