塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Celanese first quarter, 2025 earnings call and webcast. (Operator Instructions). I will now turn the conference over to your host, Bill Cunningham. Thank you. You may begin.

問候。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2025年第一季財報電話會議及網路直播。 （操作員指示）。現在我將會議交給主持人比爾坎寧安 (Bill Cunningham)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, [Daryl]. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation, first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor relations. With me today on the call are Scott Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck Kyrish, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，[達裡爾]。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫比爾‧坎寧安 (Bill Cunningham)，是投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Scott Richardson 和財務長 Chuck Kyrish。

Celanese distributed its first quarter earnings release via Business wire and posted prepared comments, as well as a presentation on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

塞拉尼斯透過商業電訊發布了第一季財報報告，並發布了準備好的評論，以及昨天下午在我們的投資人關係網站上發布的簡報。提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and the prepared comments. Form 8K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC. With that, Darryl, let's please go ahead and open it up for questions.

今天的演講還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，可以在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。包含所有這些資料的 8K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。達裡爾，有了這個，我們就可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行

Thank you. Good morning. Scott, nice quarter. Looking beyond Q2, how should we think about the earnings cadence, if not ramp in the back half of the year?

謝謝。早安.斯科特，不錯的季度。展望第二季之後，如果下半年獲利沒有增加，我們該如何看待獲利節奏？

Thank you, David. Look, we do have some tailwinds, particularly on the cost side as we go into the second half of the year. First half's pretty heavy on turnarounds. There's probably, around $30 million of tailwind there. We called out, tariff, impact of about $30 million on a direct basis, so those two offset each other.

謝謝你，大衛。看起來，我們確實有一些順風，特別是在進入下半年時在成本方面。上半年情勢逆轉較多。那裡可能有大約 3,000 萬美元的順風資金。我們指出，關稅的直接影響約為 3000 萬美元，因此這兩者相互抵消。

The additional cost reduction actions that we outlined in the prepared remarks is about $40 million and then kind of the full run rate of the original $80 million is another 20. So you got about 60 there and then, [tow] dividend and tow volume will certainly be a tailwind as well. Those two together about $50 million or so in the second half.

我們在準備好的評論中概述的額外成本削減措施約為 4000 萬美元，而原先 8000 萬美元的全部運行率又增加了 2000 萬美元。因此，您當時得到了大約 60 個，[拖] 股息和拖曳量肯定也會成為順風。下半年這兩項加起來約為 5,000 萬美元。

So when you kind of put those things together, it’s really a nice kind of, almost $100 million or so just from those elements in the second half. The uncertainty factor is demand right now and I think that is what we're watching very closely to see kind of where things are going to hold from a demand perspective.

所以，當你把這些因素綜合起來時，你會發現下半年的收入確實不錯，光是這些因素就能達到近 1 億美元左右。目前不確定的因素是需求，我認為我們正在密切關注，從需求角度了解情況將會如何發展。

Very good. And just on Micromax, is this the only the best you're looking at this year and or they could it be more this year beyond just Micromax?

非常好。就 Micromax 而言，這是您今年唯一看到的最佳產品嗎？或者今年除了 Micromax 之外，還會有其他更好的產品嗎？

We've been very consistent that our focus is on cash generation, and we are looking at a myriad of options on the divestiture side, David. It's not just Micromax. We've talked about having a portfolio of things that we're looking at.

我們始終將重點放在現金創造上，並且我們正在考慮資產剝離方面的各種選擇，大衛。不僅僅是 Micromax。我們已經討論過我們正在關注的一系列事物。

We felt like announcing the Micromax transaction was important because of the number of inbounds that we've had on this business and with us launching the process right now, we felt like being public with it made a lot more sense.

我們覺得宣布 Micromax 交易很重要，因為我們已經在這個業務上接到了很多申請，而且我們現在正在啟動這個過程，我們覺得公開這個消息更有意義。

Frank J. Mitsch, Fermium Research

弗蘭克·J·米奇，費米研究中心

Yes, just, following up on Micromax. What, how do we think about the EBITDA margins for that business?

是的，只是在跟進 Micromax。那麼，我們如何看待該業務的 EBITDA 利潤率？

Thank you, Frank. Yeah, we said the revenue is about $300 million and honestly right now that business is running very similar EBITDA margins to what engineer materials did in the first quarter. So, high [teens], Frank, is how I would think about it.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。是的，我們說過營收約為 3 億美元，老實說，目前該業務的 EBITDA 利潤率與第一季工程材料的 EBITDA 利潤率非常相似。所以，弗蘭克，我是這樣認為的。

All right, terrific. Thank you. And I appreciate the color in the commentary and in the slides regarding Nylon 66 and the difficulties they're in. I mean, we have seen a recent bankruptcy filing. What's your outlook in terms of capacity rationalization and, what gets that business fundamentally improving?

好的，太棒了。謝謝。我很欣賞評論和幻燈片中有關尼龍 66 及其所面臨的困難的精彩內容。我的意思是，我們看到了最近一份破產申請。您對產能合理化有何展望？什麼能從根本上改善該業務？

I'd like to get a quick step back, Frank. I mean, we believe that we have the leading engineered materials franchise in the world. When you look at the 19 different polymer families that we have in our portfolio, we feel like we can really deliver unique customer solutions to a wide variety of the customer base.

我想快速退一步，弗蘭克。我的意思是，我們相信我們擁有世界領先的工程材料特許經營權。當您查看我們產品組合中的 19 種不同聚合物系列時，我們覺得我們確實可以為各種各樣的客戶群提供獨特的客戶解決方案。

Nylon is the one that's specifically challenged. And so, we called it out really, because it is a business that we know we've got to put a core amount of focus on and has been the biggest driver of our earnings decline in the last several years. As we look here, the industry is challenged.

尼龍是特別具有挑戰性的材料。所以，我們確實指出了這一點，因為我們知道我們必須把重點放在這個業務上，而且這也是過去幾年我們獲利下滑的最大原因。從我們的角度來看，這個產業面臨挑戰。

The industry has given up a lot of margin over the last several years, and it's unsustainable. And so the actions that we started taking last year around capacity reductions, us kind of flexing a different operating model here, hasn't been enough yet, but we are starting to see a stabilization here and now that we've got things stabilizing, it's important that we start to build up.

過去幾年，該行業已經放棄了大量利潤，這是不可持續的。因此，我們去年開始採取的削減產能的行動，我們在這裡嘗試了一種不同的營運模式，雖然還不夠，但我們開始看到情況趨於穩定，現在情況已經穩定下來，重要的是我們要開始累積。

And so you've seen us announce some price increases, we're continuing to focus heavily on the cost side of the equation so that we can really streamline our operations to be leaner and ability to meet customer needs going forward.

因此，您已經看到我們宣布了一些價格上漲，我們將繼續專注於成本方面，以便我們能夠真正簡化運營，使其更加精簡，並能夠滿足未來客戶的需求。

Understood. Just lastly, you call that that you didn't expect the high-cost producers to be able to last in this sort of environment. What are you seeing any tangible actions that of competitor capacity rationalizations?

明白了。最後，您說您沒想到高成本生產商能夠在這種環境下生存下來。您看到競爭對手在產能合理化上採取了哪些實質的行動？

But Frank, we can only control what we do, and we, I believe, have been taking decisive actions in this business and we will continue to do so and we'll continue to partner with our customers as well to bring unique solutions and continue to drive our costs down as much as we can.

但是弗蘭克，我們只能控制我們所做的事情，我相信，我們一直在這項業務中採取果斷行動，我們將繼續這樣做，我們將繼續與我們的客戶合作，提供獨特的解決方案，並繼續盡可能地降低成本。

Gotcha. Thanks so much.

明白了。非常感謝。

Jeff Zekauskas, JP Morgan

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯（Jeff Zekauskas），摩根大通

Thanks very much. Oil prices have begun to come down. Is this good for Celanese or bad for Celanese or how do you think about it or calculate it?

非常感謝。油價已開始下降。這對塞拉尼斯來說是好是壞，或者您如何看待或計算它？

Thank you, Jeff. We have a flexible operating model. We have a variety of feed, a variety of feedstocks, and, I think we've been pretty consistent over the years that we're relatively agnostic to where oil pricing is at. And so we haven't necessarily, we see some puts and takes from that.

謝謝你，傑夫。我們擁有靈活的營運模式。我們有多種飼料、多種原料，我認為多年來我們一直非常一致地了解石油價格的走勢。因此，我們不一定能看到其中的一些得失。

We certainly see some feedstock reductions, which is helpful, but then you see some offsets from that, particularly in things like they've been seeing a dividend which comes down when oil pricing moves off. So, as we've run a myriad of permutations, from a straight cost perspective, we tend to be agnostic.

我們確實看到了一些原料的減少，這是有幫助的，但隨後你會看到一些抵消，特別是當他們看到當油價下降時股息就會下降的時候。因此，當我們進行了大量排列組合時，從直接成本角度來看，我們傾向於持不可知論。

The question is really demand. I think in most economic environments; lower oil pricing usually means demand is at reduced levels in a lot of our end uses. And so I think that's the piece that we're watching closely right now.

問題實際上是需求。我認為在大多數經濟環境中，較低的油價通常意味著許多最終用途的需求處於下降水準。所以我認為這就是我們現在密切關注的部分。

So, in the quarter, engineered materials volumes were down four and the year over year and the acetyl chain volumes were down six. Is that sort of the baseline level of year over year change that you expect. When you did your guide for the second quarter, many of the positive components you pointed to were either one time or cost related.

因此，本季工程材料產量較去年同期下降 4%，乙醯鏈產量較去年同期下降 6%。這是您所預期的逐年變化的基準水平嗎？當您制定第二季的指南時，您指出的許多積極因素要么是一次性的，要么是與成本相關的。

Are you seeing sort of a normal seasonal pick up in volumes? Can you talk about what you expect for volumes for the year?

您是否看到銷售量出現正常的季節性回升？您能談談對今年銷售的預期嗎？

Yeah, I'll talk about order book as well, Jeff, here for the second quarter. Let me start with engineer materials. We saw a much stronger March than we saw in January and February, and the April orders were kind of in line with that March pickup and the order book for May looks very similar. June is too early to say, and we're, there's some uncertainty around where June orders were go but April and May are strong.

是的，傑夫，我也會談論第二季的訂單狀況。讓我先從工程材料開始。我們看到 3 月份的表現比 1 月份和 2 月份強勁得多，4 月份的訂單量與 3 月份的回升量基本一致，5 月份的訂單量看起來也非常相似。現在說六月還為時過早，我們對六月的訂單走向還存在一些不確定性，但四月和五月的訂單表現強勁。

So, we are seeing a volume pick up from Q1 into Q2, from engineering materials. On the acetyl side of things, I would say we're not seeing the normal seasonal pickup that we would typically see. Usually Q2 is significantly better volumetrically and things like paints and coatings. We haven't seen that.

因此，我們看到工程材料的銷售量從第一季到第二季有所回升。就乙醯基方面而言，我想說我們沒有看到通常會出現的正常季節性回升。通常 Q2 在體積方面以及油漆和塗料等方面有明顯更好的表現。我們還沒見過這種情況。

We're seeing some of that, but not nearly at the level that we've seen historically in the past where we are seeing volumes move up in acetyls within the acetate toe business, and we called out some Q1 seasonality there and things certainly are better here as we started the second quarter. Just as an example, April volumes in acetyl toe were about 25% more than January volume. So certainly seeing things moving in the right direction there.

我們看到了一些這樣的情況，但遠遠沒有達到我們過去所見過的水平，我們看到醋酸鹽業務中乙醯基的產量正在上升，我們注意到第一季度存在一些季節性因素，而進入第二季度後情況肯定會有所好轉。舉個例子，四月乙醯苯胺的銷量比一月高出約 25%。所以可以肯定的是，事情正在朝著正確的方向發展。

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. I just want to go back to the Nylon 66 question earlier. Obviously a very significant drag on operating profits since 2021 on the EM segment. Scott, what specifically changed relative to perhaps your diligence at the time of the M&M transaction prior to close, and then what is the catalyst to change the profitability matrix for that business going forward? Is it just demand weakness at this point and exaggerated supply? What's going on there?

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。我只是想回到之前的尼龍 66 問題。顯然，自 2021 年以來，新興市場的營業利潤受到了非常嚴重的拖累。斯科特，在 M&M 交易結束前，您的盡職調查具體發生了哪些變化？接下來改變該業務獲利矩陣的催化劑是什麼？目前只是需求疲軟和供應過高嗎？那裡發生什麼事了？

Thank you, Ghansham. The biggest change that we saw happen as we got into '22 and '23 was really reduced demand and I think that was really came at the exact same time of the increase in capacity. I mean, the increased capacity coming into the marketplace was something that we had seen, and we knew was coming.

謝謝你，甘沙姆。進入 2022 年和 2023 年，我們看到的最大變化是需求確實減少了，我認為這與運力增加是同時發生的。我的意思是，我們已經看到了市場容量的增加，我們知道這會發生。

But I think that that overlay of the demand reduction coming at that second time has just created this significant overcapacity in short period of time and we just didn't see, a rationalization globally of capacity very quickly and we took action obviously over a year ago on our asset in Europe and you'll have to see kind of where things go as we go forward.

但我認為，第二次需求減少的疊加已經在短時間內造成了嚴重的產能過剩，我們只是沒有看到全球產能迅速合理化，我們顯然在一年多前就對我們在歐洲的資產採取了行動，你必須看看我們未來的發展方向。

But historically the Western Hemisphere was overcapacitized, but it had a home to go in China and when China brought on a lot more new capacity, we've seen that volume back up. And so we'll just have to kind of see where things go from a balanced perspective, but we're going to continue to pivot there.

但從歷史上看，西半球的產能過剩，但它在中國有一個歸宿，當中國帶來更多新產能時，我們看到產能回升。因此，我們必須從平衡的角度來觀察事情的發展，但我們將繼續以此為中心。

We, as we've said in the past, don't need to be a producer of nylon polymer. We're, we are buying polymer as well, and when it's cheaper to do so, we'll ramp down our own operating rates.

正如我們過去所說的那樣，我們不需要成為尼龍聚合物的生產商。我們也在購買聚合物，當價格更便宜時，我們就會降低自己的營運率。

Okay, thanks for that. And then in terms of the upstream AC segment, pricing has been negative since 4Q '22 on a year view basis pretty consistently. Just trying to reconcile your comments and your prepared commentary, etc. Are we sort of at an inflection point as you see it at this point? I know you've done some pricing in different businesses.

好的，謝謝。就上游空調領域而言，自 2022 年第四季以來，按年率計算，價格一直為負值。只是想調和您的評論和您準備好的評論等。正如您所看到的，我們現在是否處於一個轉折點？我知道您已經為不同的業務做過一些定價。

Yeah, the overcapacity that we've seen is contained in Asia today, and we have been moving our business model consistently over the last five or so years further downstream, and we've added capacity in our emulsions business. We purchased the powders asset downstream from emulsions, and that has given us more flex really to consume more acetic acid and VAM internally.

是的，我們看到的產能過剩目前在亞洲有所緩解，過去五年左右，我們一直在將業務模式向下游轉移，並且增加了乳液業務的產能。我們購買了乳液下游的粉末資產，這實際上給了我們更大的靈活性，可以在內部消耗更多的乙酸和 VAM。

Currently on a global basis, 65% of what we actually sell in acid teals to a third-party customer is not acetic acid or VAM. And so that downstream capability does give us some level of differentiation. It doesn't fully insulate us from overcapacity, and we certainly would like margins to be better in acetic acid and VAM, but it does give us some flexibility there and margins have been relatively stable in the Western Hemisphere.

目前在全球範圍內，我們實際銷售給第三方客戶的酸性水鴨中有 65% 不是乙酸或 VAM。因此，下游能力確實為我們帶來了一定程度的差異化。它並不能完全使我們免受產能過剩的影響，我們當然希望乙酸和 VAM 的利潤率更高，但它確實為我們提供了一定的靈活性，而且西半球的利潤率相對穩定。

Perfect. Thank you, Scott.

完美的。謝謝你，斯科特。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley

文森安德魯斯（Vincent Andrews），摩根士丹利

Thanks and good morning. Just on the $70 million to $800 million of cash you're calling out for the year. I mean, I understanding that the back half of the year is tricky right now to forecast from an earnings perspective, but you just bridges '24 to '25.

謝謝，早安。僅就您今年呼籲的 7,000 萬至 8 億美元現金而言。我的意思是，我知道從獲利角度來看，現在很難預測今年下半年的業績，但這只是 24 年至 25 年之間的橋樑。

I know there were a lot of one-time items on the cash flow statement last year, but just sort of help us understand your conviction and being able to get the $70 million to $800 million of cash this year, despite a tricky or outlook.

我知道去年現金流量表上有很多一次性項目，但這只是幫助我們理解您的信念，儘管前景嚴峻，但您仍然能夠在今年獲得 7000 萬至 8 億美元的現金。

Yeah, Vincent, let me start and then I'll let Chuck fill in some of the year over year details. As I said earlier, our focus is on cash, and yes, there's uncertainty in the back half. We do have some tailwinds, second half versus first half, as I called out earlier but there is some uncertainty with demand. We are not, even though volumes are better here in the second quarter, we are not ramping up our plant rates.

是的，文森特，讓我先開始，然後我會讓查克填寫一些逐年的細節。正如我之前所說，我們的重點是現金，是的，後半部分存在不確定性。正如我之前提到的，與上半年相比，下半年我們確實有一些順風，但需求方面存在一些不確定性。儘管第二季的產量有所好轉，但我們並沒有提高工廠的開工率。

We are focused on reducing inventory and are going to pull back on rates if we see any kind of reduction in demand. So, that inventory reduction plan is very strong, and we have levers we believe, even if we see a sharp reduction in demand in the second half, we have levers to be able to generate cash flow in the range we call out.

我們專注於減少庫存，如果發現需求有任何減少，我們就會降低利率。因此，庫存減少計劃非常有力，我們相信，即使下半年需求急劇下降，我們也有槓桿來產生我們要求範圍內的現金流。

Yeah, that's right, Vincent and -- to guide on free cash flow, some of those levers. They will have an impact on the income statement, right, in terms of cost absorption, etc. So those are more difficult to predict, sort of on a timing basis, but what we are confident in is the cash flow protection and generation of these levers.

是的，沒錯，文森特和——指導自由現金流，其中一些槓桿。它們會對損益表產生影響，對吧，在成本吸收等方面。因此，這些在時間上更難預測，但我們對現金流保護和這些槓桿的產生有信心。

And we also think about the categories that we've been talking about to call out of year over year improvement, working capital is use of cash last year. We're expecting it to be a source of cash that this year. So that's a significant increase year over year.

我們也考慮了我們一直在談論的逐年改善的類別，營運資金是去年的現金使用。我們預計它將成為今年的現金來源。因此，與去年同期相比，這是一個顯著的成長。

We've really taken CapEx down to our maintenance levels and so that's going to be a significant increase. Cash taxes will come down. So, those things, in addition to these levers that Scott talked about make us confident in that $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow for the year.

我們確實已將資本支出降低至維護水平，因此這將是一個顯著的增長。現金稅將會下降。因此，除了史考特談到的這些槓桿之外，這些因素也讓我們對今年 7 億至 8 億美元的自由現金流充滿信心。

Very good. And then if I get as a follow up, your auto volumes, your volumes into auto were down 5% against the global industry down 10%. How much of that outperformance was just a function of it seemed like it was Asia where the real weakness was, and I think Asia has been a softer market for you in recent quarters versus are you also picking share up or any other things you want to call out in that delta.

非常好。然後，如果我繼續問下去，您的汽車銷量，您的汽車銷量下降了 5%，而全球行業下降了 10%。這種優異表現在多大程度上僅僅是因為亞洲似乎才是真正的弱點，而且我認為最近幾個季度亞洲市場對你來說比較疲軟，而你是否也在回升市場份額，或者你想在這個增量中指出的任何其他事情。

Look, our team has balance and where we're positioned globally on automotive. Obviously, our business historically is stronger in the Western Hemisphere than in China, but that China business is growing. The end of some of the European destocking that we had called out in the month of March and as we started here Q2 was a good driver for us.

你看，我們的團隊是平衡的，我們在全球汽車領域的定位是平衡的。顯然，從歷史上看，我們的業務在西半球比在中國更強大，但中國業務正在成長。我們在三月呼籲的歐洲去庫存化進程已經結束，而隨著第二季的開始，這對我們來說是一個很好的推動力。

Certainly that's where we have more content is in the US and in Europe, and so that certainly was helpful, and we had seen kind of a mismatch of our volumes versus where bills were in the fourth quarter. And so this is kind of getting things kind of balanced back out, Vincent.

當然，我們在美國和歐洲擁有更多的內容，所以這當然是有幫助的，而且我們發現我們的交易量與第四季度的帳單量存在不匹配的情況。所以這會讓事情恢復平衡，文森特。

Josh Spector, UBS

瑞銀集團喬希·斯佩克特

Yeah, hi, good morning, Scott, I wanted to ask your view on the impact of tariffs on your ability to flex your acetyls chain. I mean, you called out of $15 million net headwinds a quarter in the second half. I'm not sure how much of that the seals versus the other businesses.

是的，嗨，早上好，斯科特，我想問一下你對關稅對你彎曲乙醯基鏈的能力的影響的看法。我的意思是，您預測下半年每季的淨逆風為 ​​1500 萬美元。我不確定與其他企業相比，海豹部隊佔了多大比重。

But the hallmark of that business model has been the flexibility and ability to arb different regions. So how much of a hindrance is that, or do you see that something you could largely mitigate?

但該商業模式的標誌是靈活性和在不同地區進行套利的能力。那麼這會帶來多大的阻礙，或者您認為可以在很大程度上緩解這種阻礙嗎？

Tariffs really don't have much impact for us in acetyls, Josh. I mean, the amounts that we called out are really more related to engineering materials. Yes, a hallmark of our model is ability to flex, but, even when we first started in Investing in China in 2007, we've talked about China for China for the most part in acetyls.

喬希，關稅對我們的乙醯產品來說確實沒有太大影響。我的意思是，我們所說的數量實際上與工程材料更相關。是的，我們模式的一個特點是具有靈活性，但是，即使在 2007 年我們剛開始投資中國時，我們在乙醯基中主要談論的是中國。

And so we have a really nice position with where our assets are positioned in acetyls, and we really don't see much tariff impact.

因此，我們的資產在乙醯基領域的定位非常好，我們確實沒有看到關稅的太大影響。

Okay, so maybe to clarify for me, on slide 17, when you talk about 9% of China's sales, essentially coming from the US, is that all EM then? Or what's the nature of that material?

好的，也許可以幫我澄清一下，在第 17 張投影片上，當您談到中國 9% 的銷售額主要來自美國時，這是否全部都是新興市場？或者說這種材料的性質是什麼？

Yes, it is all engineer materials, Josh, and it is really specifically just several product families and as we called out there, we have the ability to move that production to other places for about half of that exposure. So, we do have a gap and the team is working hard still on that remaining gap to find ways to mitigate it going forward.

是的，喬希，這都是工程材料，實際上只是幾個產品系列，正如我們所說的那樣，我們有能力將生產轉移到其他地方，以獲得大約一半的曝光率。所以，我們確實存在差距，團隊仍在努力彌補剩餘的差距，尋找減輕差距的方法。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行

Hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could speak to the success of, pricing actions across the EM portfolio, given the, 1Q and 2Q price increases you've announced. It looks like price is modestly higher sequentially, but could you compare and contrast, standard grade versus more differentiated and outlook for pricing for the year.

嗨，早安。鑑於您宣布的第一季和第二季價格上漲，我想知道您是否可以談談新興市場投資組合定價行動的成功。看起來價格比上一季略有上漲，但您能否比較一下標準等級與差異化等級以及今年的定價前景？

Yeah, thank you, Patrick. The team was successful, getting some price. We didn't get a whole lot in the first quarter because those price increases were announced towards the end of the quarter, but we did see some, and we are seeing a little bit carry forward obviously and some additional increases here in the second quarter. I think the price you're seeing is a little more mix related in the first quarter. That was a bigger chunk of the pricing.

是的，謝謝你，派崔克。該團隊取得了成功，並獲得了一些獎勵。我們在第一季並沒有獲得太多的收益，因為這些價格上漲是在本季度末宣布的，但我們確實看到了一些收益，而且我們明顯看到了一些結轉，並且在第二季度還有一些額外的增長。我認為您看到的價格與第一季的價格更加混合相關。這佔了定價的很大一部分。

Very good. And then just on the high impact, growth pipeline and EM do you have any concerns on resource alignment, customer relationships with quite a bit of head count reduction in this business? How do you balance the right levels of SG&A investment to support this pipeline going forward?

非常好。那麼，就高影響力、成長管道和 EM 而言，您是否對資源調整、客戶關係以及該業務中大量裁員有任何擔憂？如何平衡適當的銷售、一般及行政管理費用 (SG&A) 投資水準以支援該管道未來發展？

We are taking an aggressive approach on the cost structure of not just the business but the entire corporation, but we also believe that we have sufficient resources and it is really about making sure that we are majoring in the majors, not majoring in the minors here, and that we are making sure our resources are focused on those high impact programs and it doesn't mean we're not going to work other things.

我們不僅在業務上而且在整個公司的成本結構上都採取了積極的態度，但我們也相信我們擁有足夠的資源，這實際上是為了確保我們專注於主要業務，而不是專注於次要業務，並確保我們的資源集中在那些高影響力的項目上，但這並不意味著我們不會做其他事情。

It just means that where we're going to put real effort and where we're going to make investment is on those things that have a bigger payoff. And I think the engineer materials team led by Todd Elliott has really been doing a great job of ensuring that we are looking at everything that we're doing and making sure our resources are properly positioned on those high impact areas.

這只是意味著我們要在那些能帶來更大回報的事情上付出真正的努力和投資。我認為 Todd Elliott 領導的工程材料團隊確實做得非常出色，他們確保我們專注於所做的每一件事，並確保我們的資源正確地部署在那些高影響力領域。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo

麥克西森，富國銀行

Hey, good morning guys. A nice start to the year. When you think about the second half of the year, Scott. I think you're assuming, things don't get worse from here. Where do you think you should end the year in terms of I don't know, maybe earnings power.

嘿，大家早安。新的一年有一個美好的開始。當你想到今年下半年時，史考特。我想你認為事情不會變得更糟。就獲利能力而言，您認為今年應該以什麼來結束？

What, where would you like to get the company to in terms of, in this environment, some level of earnings or EBITDA as we exit the year heading into hopefully a better year next year.

在這種環境下，當我們結束今年並迎來更好的明年時，您希望公司的盈利或 EBITDA 達到什麼水平？

Well, Mike, let me just kind of take a step back. I, we're not assuming anything right now. We are continuing to be diligent on driving self-help actions, and that is where our focus is. You look at some of those second half tailwinds that I talked about, if, and this is obviously a big if, demand were to stay, similar to what it is in April and May, then if you add those things, you would get to kind of a run rate, exiting year around $2 a share.

好吧，麥克，讓我退一步來說。我，我們現在不假設任何事。我們將繼續努力推動自助行動，這是我們的重點。你看看我談到的下半年的一些順風因素，如果（這顯然是一個很大的如果），需求保持不變，與 4 月和 5 月的水平相似，那麼如果你把這些因素加在一起，你就會得到一種運行率，年底每股收益約為 2 美元。

That's obviously a big if, and we're not going to assume that that's going to be the case and we're going to continue to be ahead of how we operate our assets to ensure that we are generating cash because that is really the key focus for us right now.

這顯然是一個很大的如果，我們不會假設情況會是這樣，我們將繼續領先於我們的資產運營，以確保我們產生現金，因為這確實是我們現在關注的重點。

Got it. And then longer term, as you as you reassess the portfolio. Do you have any thoughts, since you've taken the helm of where, the earnings par for selling these should be longer term?

知道了。然後從長遠來看，當您重新評估投資組合時。自從您掌舵以來，您有什麼想法嗎？出售這些產品的收益標準應該是長期的嗎？

We have two great franchises with strong operating models. We believe in the acetyls teal chain operating model. We believe in the engineered materials operating model. These businesses have significant earnings power. I mean, the steps that we're taking now, and the things that we're doing to generate opportunities even in an uncertain environment, I think are going to be a nice catalyst for us, when we see a stabilization of demand.

我們擁有兩家擁有強大營運模式的優秀特許經營企業。我們相信乙醯基藍綠色鏈運作模式。我們相信工程材料的運作模式。這些企業具有強大的獲利能力。我的意思是，我們現在採取的措施，以及即使在不確定的環境中我們也在做的事情，以創造機會，當我們看到需求穩定時，我認為這將成為我們的良好催化劑。

I mean, if you look at our, largest end use exposure in a steel chain and, paints, coatings, construction, adhesives, it's been really, historically soft now for multiple years and the business is still generating the type of EBITDA that it is.

我的意思是，如果你看看我們最大的終端用途，即鋼鏈、油漆、塗料、建築、黏合劑，你會發現這些領域多年來一直處於歷史低迷狀態，而且該業務仍在產生應有的 EBITDA。

That flexibility that we have in that business and the investments we've made, we're really well positioned it to grow earnings pretty significantly going forward. And, I'm not ready to call out a number right now, Mike, on the future, but we do believe kind of the first step is kind of that $2 per quarter, and then we'll build off of that.

我們在該業務中所擁有的靈活性以及我們所做的投資，使我們在未來的獲利成長中佔據了有利地位。麥克，我現在還沒有準備好說出未來的數字，但我們確實相信第一步是每季 2 美元，然後我們將在此基礎上繼續發展。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Scott, last quarter you talked about your, focus on gaining sharing content in Asia. I mean, we're now five months into this year. How do you feel about your progress on this topic this year? And maybe if you look into '26, how should this area of focus evolve for you?

謝謝。大家早安。斯科特，上個季度您談到了專注於在亞洲獲取共享內容。我的意思是，今年已經過去五個月了。您覺得今年您在這個主題上的進展如何？也許如果你看一下 26 年，這個重點領域該如何發展？

But China is an important area of focus for us. We believe that in automotive in particular that, the local OEMs are going to be the winners. They're in China and we need to be increasing our content there. That increased content is really going to be focused on these high impact programs that we have.

但中國是我們關注的重要地區。我們相信，尤其是在汽車領域，本地原始設備製造商將成為贏家。他們在中國，我們需要在那裡增加我們的內容。增加的內容實際上將集中在我們擁有的這些高影響力的項目上。

It needs to be margin focused, because I don't know that, the volume play there is going to be the same as where our business has historically developed and so the team is really poorly focused. Todd Elliott and team have created really a focused group that is really designed around accelerating our content there locally in China.

它需要以利潤為重點，因為我不知道那裡的銷售是否會與我們的業務歷史發展相同，因此團隊的專注度確實很差。托德·埃利奧特 (Todd Elliott) 和他的團隊創建了一個真正專注的團隊，旨在加速我們在中國本地的內容傳播。

We grew our EV volumes in China 20% last year over the previous year, and we've got to do that again this year. And so that's the kind of focus and targets that we're setting for ourselves, to ensure that we're successful long term.

去年，我們在中國的電動車銷量比前一年成長了 20%，今年我們必須再次實現這一成長。這就是我們為自己設定的重點和目標，以確保我們長期成功。

And, just looking back on engineering materials last year, as you were just shy of $1.3 billion so you would, it sounds like destocking is over, demand is okay. How realistic is it for you to get back to that 1.3% annual level over the next few quarters and what are the risks? What has changed that may preclude you from going back to that level of earnings?

回顧去年的工程材料，由於您的銷售額略低於 13 億美元，因此聽起來去庫存已經結束，需求還可以。在接下來的幾個季度中回到 1.3% 的年增長率有多現實？風險是什麼？哪些變化可能會阻礙您回到那個收入水平？

Well, first and foremost, it's around self-help actions, the things that we are driving that we control, and that is the first step here. And I think with the team, it continues to create a nice slate of actions and it seems like we're adding to that list every single quarter and that is helpful. The volume side of the equation is important.

嗯，首先，這是圍繞自助行動，圍繞著我們正在推動和控制的事情，這是第一步。我認為，透過團隊的努力，我們將繼續制定一系列出色的行動計劃，而且似乎我們每個季度都會將計劃添加到清單中，這很有幫助。等式的體積方面很重要。

There, every incremental ton that we sell is worth a lot, particularly as we continue to pull cost out of this business. And so getting some level of volume stability coming out of where we were in the fourth quarter and the first part of Q1 was extremely important.

在那裡，我們銷售的每一噸增量產品都價值不菲，特別是當我們繼續從這項業務中降低成本時。因此，在第四季和第一季初期獲得一定程度的銷售穩定性非常重要。

I also think that the price discussion is important. Margins have compressed here pretty significantly in some of these standard grade areas, and it is really important that we get off of these unsustainable margin levels. And so that's another element, and we know that's not going to change overnight and we're going to have to keep working up that step by step. So, but we feel confident in the long-term earnings power of this franchise.

我也認為價格討論很重要。在一些標準等級領域，利潤率已經大幅壓縮，擺脫這些不可持續的利潤率水平確實非常重要。這是另一個因素，我們知道這不會在一夜之間改變，我們必須一步一步地努力。所以，我們對這個特許經營權的長期獲利能力充滿信心。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners

凱文麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），Vertical Research Partners

Yes, thank you and good morning. Scott, when I look at your 2025 free cash flow range of $700 to $800 and back out your ranges for CapEx working capital, cash taxes, etc. It seems to imply that you're tracking to an adjusted EBITA level around $1.8 billion or so. Is that fair or are there other cash flow items that might skew the implied earnings range, materially higher or lower than that?

是的，謝謝你，早安。史考特，當我看到你 2025 年的自由現金流範圍為 700 至 800 美元，並回溯到資本支出營運資本、現金稅等範圍時，似乎意味著你追蹤的調整後 EBITA 水準約為 18 億美元左右。這樣公平嗎？或者是否存在其他現金流量項目可能會扭曲隱含收益範圍，使其大幅高於或低於該範圍？

No, Kevin, I wouldn't read too much into that. As we've stated repeatedly, our focus is on cash, and given the amount of potential demand uncertainty that we see in the back half of the year, we're not, we're kind of looking at a myriad of scenarios of how things could play out.

不，凱文，我不會對此進行過多的解讀。正如我們反覆聲明的那樣，我們的重點是現金，考慮到我們在下半年看到的潛在需求不確定性，我們不會，我們正在研究事情可能如何發展的無數情景。

And with the leverage that we have to pull in the variety of those scenarios, we believe that is a solid range for us and we're confident in that range. Like I said before, if given some of the tailwinds that we have in the second half, if demand were to stay pretty stable, then, certainly, the earnings trajectory will look pretty strong in the second half of the year.

憑藉我們在各種情況下所擁有的槓桿作用，我們相信這對我們來說是一個穩固的範圍，我們對這個範圍充滿信心。就像我之前說的，如果考慮到下半年的一些順風因素，如果需求保持相當穩定，那麼，下半年的獲利軌跡肯定會相當強勁。

Okay, fair enough. And then secondly, in a scenario where the tariff regime is status quo today. Can you just talk in general terms about what you think, might happen in China? For example, have you seen or would you expect to see any examples of project cancellations in China as you look across your portfolio and, where do you think the effect on market conditions could be most pronounced?

好吧，夠公平。其次，在關稅制度維持現狀的情況下。您能否概括地談談您認為在中國可能發生的情況？例如，當您回顧您的投資組合時，您是否看到或您是否預計會看到中國項目取消的例子，您認為對市場狀況的影響在哪些方面最為明顯？

We haven't seen project cancellations in China. What I would say, Kevin, is we are seeing, orders in some of the I would say kind of small appliances, toys. Those areas we've seen that kind of start to pull back here in the second quarter. That tends to be relatively low margin business for us, so we're not significantly worried about it from an EBITDA perspective, but I do think it's indicative of the uncertainty that is out there.

我們還沒有看到中國取消項目的情況。凱文，我想說的是，我們看到了一些小家電、玩具的訂單。我們看到這些地區在第二季開始出現回落。對我們來說，這往往是利潤率相對較低的業務，因此從 EBITDA 的角度來看，我們並不太擔心，但我確實認為這表明存在不確定性。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 Arun Viswanathan

Great, thanks for taking my question. I guess I had a question on EM first. You noted that the earnings power of the business has deteriorated maybe $350 million on a gross profit basis and 75% of that was nylon. I know you addressed some of the nylon challenges.

太好了，感謝您回答我的問題。我想我首先對 EM 有一個疑問。您注意到，該業務的盈利能力按毛利潤計算可能下降了 3.5 億美元，其中 75% 來自尼龍。我知道您已經解決了一些尼龍難題。

But would you say that many of the actions you're taking would allow you to recover that $350 million of gross profit loss? And maybe even grow above that, or is that kind of structurally, deteriorated earnings power? How do you think about that?

但您是否認為您採取的許多措施能夠讓您挽回 3.5 億美元的毛利損失？甚至可能超過這個數字，還是說這是結構性、惡化的獲利能力？您對此有何看法？

Arun, in my opinion, the bold actions that we're taking are adding to the long-term earnings power of the business. So we talked about gross profit being down, $350 million or so, our SG&A, R&D costs have also gone down by $100 million $150 million. So you've got that partial offset there.

阿倫，在我看來，我們採取的大膽行動正在增強企業的長期獲利能力。所以我們說毛利下降了，大約 3.5 億美元，我們的銷售、一般及行政費用、研發成本也下降了 1 億至 1.5 億美元。因此您已經得到了部分抵消。

I think that power and our ability to operate leaner at lower cost is going to help us going forward as we continue to drive opportunities through our high impact programs as we stabilize and then start to increase the returns in our standard grade nylon business and continue to, work projects in our historical EM product lines in the standard grades where we have seen some compression as well.

我認為，隨著我們穩定並開始提高標準級尼龍業務的回報，我們將繼續透過高影響力計劃來推動機遇，並繼續在標準級的歷史 EM 產品線中開展項目，在這些產品線中，我們也看到了一些壓縮，這種力量和以更低成本精簡運營的能力將幫助我們向前邁進。

And the actions that we're taking on pricing are important here because we need to get off of these unsustainable levels in the standard grade part of the portfolio.

我們在定價方面採取的行動非常重要，因為我們需要擺脫投資組合標準級部分中這些不可持續的水平。

Okay, thanks for that. And just a question on the leverage. So it sounds like obviously your laser focused on cash generation and reducing your leverage. Is there any kind of road maps and milestones we should keep in mind as far as where you will maybe get to 4 times or 4.5 times and if there's any kind of liquidity challenges on the covenant basis that we should be aware of? Thanks.

好的，謝謝。我只想問一下關於槓桿的問題。因此，這聽起來顯然您的重點是創造現金並降低槓桿率。是否有任何路線圖和里程碑是我們應該牢記的，以便可能達到 4 倍或 4.5 倍，以及是否存在任何我們應該注意的契約基礎流動性挑戰？謝謝。

Hey, no, I don't see any liquidity challenges. It's all about generating cash through free cash flow and the vestitures and paying down debt, as quickly as we can. The ultimate leverage is going to depend, largely also on EBITDA, and the levels there, but nothing has changed about our focus on driving this balance sheet to a much lower leverage levels.

嘿，不，我沒有看到任何流動性挑戰。這一切都是為了透過自由現金流和資產產生現金並儘快償還債務。最終的槓桿率很大程度上也取決於 EBITDA 及其水平，但我們對推動資產負債表槓桿率降至更低水平的關注點沒有任何改變。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global

Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global

Morning, Scott. You mentioned a few times about, via self-help and if demand does not materially deteriorate from current levels, to get to a $2 a quarter EPS run rate by year end. If I'm running my numbers correctly, that would kind of imply, and correct me if I'm wrong, on an annualized basis, around $1.3 billion or so in free cash flow generation.

早安，史考特。您曾多次提到，透過自助，如果需求不會從當前水準大幅下降，到年底實現每季 2 美元的每股盈餘運行率。如果我的數字沒有錯誤的話，那就意味著，以年率計算，自由現金流約為 13 億美元左右，如果我錯了請糾正我。

And then on top of that, you guys sound pretty confident in over the next 2.5 years, an incremental sort of cash injection of call it a billion to $2.5 billion via divestitures. So I mean, am I thinking about these things correctly? I mean, because that would, place you guys even barring any sort of material recovery in a in a pretty good situation in terms of debt paydowns.

除此之外，你們似乎非常有信心在未來 2.5 年內透過資產剝離的方式逐步注入 10 億至 25 億美元的現金。所以我的意思是，我對這些事情的思考正確嗎？我的意思是，因為這將使你們在債務償還方面處於相當不錯的境地，即使沒有任何形式的物質復甦。

Arun, I don't believe we've been fully recognized for the cash generation.

阿倫，我不認為我們的現金創造能力已經被充分認可。

From the other side of the border, it's Hassan.

從邊境的另一邊來看，那是哈桑。

Hassan, Yes, my apology. Look, I don't think we've been fully recognized for our cash generation capabilities here. We, last year we had lower cash flow, but we called out a lot of one-time items that would have added, $40 million to $500 million to that.

哈桑，是的，我很抱歉。看，我認為我們的現金創造能力尚未得到充分認可。去年我們的現金流較低，但我們列舉了許多一次性項目，這些項目將使現金流增加 4,000 萬至 5 億美元。

When you look at the additional actions that we're taking and pulling cost out, certainly, cash flow over a billion dollars if you're operating at those EBITDA levels, is certainly in the right range and so we feel good about our ability to continue to generate cash going forward.

當你看到我們正在採取的額外行動和降低的成本時，如果你按照 EBITDA 水平運營，那麼超過 10 億美元的現金流肯定是在正確的範圍內，因此我們對未來繼續產生現金的能力感到滿意。

Understood. And again, wanted to revisit sort of the earnings power of the EM business. I mean, you guys obviously flagged the $350 million in sort of deterioration between '21 and 2024 and again from the sounds of it, some of the actions that you guys are taking, and what you guys have flagged in terms of the nylon business sort of oversupply demand not great.

明白了。再次，我想重新審視新興市場業務的獲利能力。我的意思是，你們顯然已經標記了 2021 年至 2024 年期間 3.5 億美元的損失，而且從聽起來，你們正在採取的一些行動，以及你們在尼龍業務方面標記的供過於求的情況並不好。

I mean it sounds much more cyclical and it just seems the cost that you guys have taken out and some of the sort of business wins that you're doing, it seems you have a revised sort of earnings power for that business, and it seems it's higher than what you originally anticipated, call it at the time of the M&M business.

我的意思是，這聽起來更具週期性，而且看起來你們已經拿出的成本以及你們正在進行的一些業務勝利，似乎你們對該業務的盈利能力進行了修改，而且似乎高於你們最初預期的水平，也就是在 M&M 業務時期的水平。

Am I thinking about that properly and A that and B, would you sort of, give us some sort of a guesstimate maybe in terms of margin terms what that sort of earnings power may look like on a maybe on a normalized basis?

我是否正確考慮了這一點？ A，您能否從利潤率的角度給我們一個估計，在正常情況下，這種獲利能力會是什麼樣子？

Look, Hassan, that there'd be a lot of assumptions there that we'd have to make. We need to focus on where things are right now, and we are not happy with where our current earnings levels are, and we are aggressively taking actions to improve that.

聽著，哈桑，我們必須做出很多假設。我們需要關注當前的狀況，我們對當前的獲利水準並不滿意，我們正在積極採取行動來改善這種狀況。

And I believe on the self-help cost side of things we are leaning things out to where we're going to be extremely nimble as we go forward and we are putting the right focus around how we can generate unique opportunities to Celanese in both engineer materials as well as in the acetyl chain.

我相信，在自助成本方面，我們正在傾向於在未來變得極其靈活，並且我們正把重點放在如何在工程材料和乙醯鏈方面為塞拉尼斯創造獨特的機會上。

And I do think that will drive power for us going forward. The nylon business in particular is a business that does have a lot of standard elements to it. There are some also some really great specialty applications in this business. But those standard elements do have, a lot of characteristics similar to how acetyls operates.

我確實認為這將推動我們前進。尤其是尼龍產業，它確實包含許多標準元素。這個行業中也有一些非常棒的專業應用程式。但這些標準元素確實具有許多與乙醯基相似的特性。

And so we're kind of taking some of the DNA that we have there and we're applying it, to that operating model and, the scenario that we've seen materialized here in nylon over the last several years is not unlike what we saw happen in the acetyls steel business in in 2008, 2009 economic crisis where demand fell extremely quickly and at the same time new supply came online in China.

因此，我們吸收了那裡的一些 DNA，並將其應用到該營運模式中，過去幾年我們在尼龍領域看到的情況與我們在 2008 年、2009 年經濟危機中在乙醯鋼業務中看到的情況並無不同，當時需求下降得非常快，而與此同時，中國出現了新的供應。

And it took some time to work that out. I believe we have levers and actions that we can to get this business moving in the right direction going forward.

解決這個問題需要一些時間。我相信我們有能力和行動來推動這項業務朝著正確的方向發展。

Very helpful, Scott. Thank you so much.

非常有幫助，斯科特。太感謝了。

John Roberts, Mizuho Securities

瑞穗證券的約翰羅伯茨

Thank you. I'm not sure we've heard much about electronic inks and paste in the past. Could you just tell us kind of what type of customers that business serves, the geographic mix, and what is it that kept it at Celanese up until this point? Is it connected to some of the other businesses?

謝謝。我不確定我們過去是否聽說過很多有關電子墨水和電子漿料的消息。您能否告訴我們該業務服務哪些類型的客戶、地理分佈情況，以及是什麼讓它一直留在塞拉尼斯？它與其他一些業務有聯繫嗎？

And thanks for the question, John. Look, we really like this business. It is a good business. It is a little bit more contained with a different set of customers than what we have in the rest of our engineered materials portfolio. It is not an engineered thermoplastic. It is not a thermoplastic elastomer.

謝謝你的提問，約翰。看，我們真的很喜歡這項業務。這是一門好生意。與我們工程材料產品組合中的其他產品相比，它針對的是不同的客戶群。它不是工程熱塑性塑膠。它不是熱塑性彈性體。

That's really the core of our operating model we have in EM and so, it sits, a little bit off to the side, not unlike what we had, with the food ingredients business a few years ago. The reason why we're just now working to sell the business is, we felt like there were opportunities in this business to kind of put some of the characteristics of our operating model into the business in terms of operating with a project pipeline model and generating a pipeline of opportunities going forward.

這確實是我們在新興市場的營運模式的核心，因此，它有點偏離我們幾年前的食品配料業務。我們現在致力於出售該業務的原因是，我們覺得該業務中存在一些機會，可以將我們的一些營運模式的特點融入到業務中，例如採用專案管道模型進行運營並創造未來的機會管道。

It's historically been a very stable business, but we believe now this is a business that has really nice growth prospects. And so with those kind of self-help actions being implemented in the business, we now feel like now is the right time to market it.

從歷史上看，這是一項非常穩定的業務，但我們現在相信，這是一項具有非常好的成長前景的業務。因此，隨著此類自助行動在業務中實施，我們現在覺得現在是推銷它的最佳時機。

Okay. And then on the China JV dividends, what was the remedy that got the distributions restarted? Did the law change or did you make a legal change to your ownership? What happened there?

好的。那麼，關於中國合資企業的股息，有什麼補救措施可以重新開始分配？法律是否發生了變化或您對所有權進行了合法變更？那裡發生了什麼事？

No, John, the law change requires an audit to be completed before we can receive the dividend payments. And so that audit will need to get done in the first quarter of every year. And so the timing of those payments now are just going to be split over the last three quarters as opposed to a ratably through all four quarters as in the past. So, that's really the main element of what changed.

不，約翰，法律的改變要求我們必須先完成審計才能收到股利。因此，審計需要在每年第一季完成。因此，現在付款的時間將分佈在過去三個季度，而不是像過去那樣按比例分佈在所有四個季度。所以，這確實是改變的主要因素。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America

Salvator Tiano，美國銀行

Yes, thank you very much. Firstly, I want to go back to acetyls where you mentioned, very strong demand in April, the end of the stocking versus another major producer that actually recently said the opposite, that the stocking is expanding.

是的，非常感謝。首先，我想回到您提到的乙醯基問題，4 月份需求非常強勁，庫存已經結束，而另一家主要生產商最近卻說了相反的話，庫存正在增加。

And I'm wondering, even you have local production in China, do you think that this is reflecting different, a change in actual and market demand, or could the improvement you're seeing be that you're gaining market share versus imports?

我想知道，即使你們在中國有本地生產，您是否認為這反映了實際和市場需求的不同變化，或者您所看到的改善是否是您相對於進口產品獲得了市場份額？

Yes, Sal, our China business is really fully contained within the joint venture. So, our base Celanese business does not have exposure to Celanese beyond the dividend. And so, we've been pretty open about the fact that several years ago as earnings declined pretty significantly that it made sense for us to operate our business model differently and acetyls to.

是的，薩爾，我們的中國業務確實完全包含在合資企業中。因此，除了股息之外，我們的基礎塞拉尼斯業務與塞拉尼斯沒有任何關係。因此，我們一直非常坦誠地承認，幾年前，由於收益大幅下降，我們採用不同的商業模式來運作是合理的。

We're operating it really as another derivative of acetic acid and really combined our teams and are operating at really similarly to how we operate other downstream derivatives. And so we contracted the business a little differently.

我們實際上將其作為乙酸的另一種衍生物來運營，並真正整合了我們的團隊，其運作方式與我們運作其他下游衍生物的方式非常相似。因此我們以稍微不同的方式簽訂了業務合約。

And so, the contracts we have in place have a little more seasonality in them than what we had historically and so you saw that in the fourth quarter volumes were stronger, we saw that corresponding decline in the first quarter and you're seeing that bounce back now here in Q2.

因此，我們現有的合約比歷史上的合約更具季節性，因此您會看到第四季度的交易量更強勁，而第一季則出現相應的下降，而您會看到第二季度出現反彈。

Perfect. And with regards to some other items from the Q2 and Q3 earnings bridge, firstly, you mentioned around $15 million to $20 million in improvement in vinyl’s , in Q2 based on price and volumes. How solid is this number? And generally when we think about the modest demand improvement you've mentioned.

完美的。關於第二季和第三季收益橋樑中的其他一些項目，首先，您提到第二季基於價格和銷量，黑膠唱片的銷量增長了約 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。這個數字有多可靠？一般來說，當我們考慮您提到的適度需求改善。

How does this compare to normal seasonality? And on Q3, you recently, yesterday you mentioned, you put a press release on the June1 price increase for many engineer materials products. If these go through as planned, what could be the tailwind in Q3 from pricing?

這與正常季節相比如何？關於第三季度，您最近，昨天您提到，您發布了關於 6 月 1 日許多工程材料產品價格上漲的新聞稿。如果這些都按計劃進行，那麼第三季的定價將會帶來哪些推動作用？

Well, let me take your second question first. Look, I don't want to negotiate against ourselves here, so I'm not going to call out a number. We need to reverse the trend of pricing in this business, and this is another action that we are taking. I didn't call that out as a second half tailwind, because we're not counting on it until we see it come through and it's something though that it is a trend that needs to be reversed.

好吧，我先回答你的第二個問題。聽著，我不想在這裡與我們自己談判，所以我不會說出一個數字。我們需要扭轉這個行業的定價趨勢，這是我們正在採取的另一項行動。我並沒有將其稱為下半年的順風，因為我們沒有指望它，直到我們看到它實現，但這是一個需要扭轉的趨勢。

Going, then on to your first question around Vinyl’s, look, inventories are lean here as we get into the second quarter, there's heavy turnaround activity, largely in the Western Hemisphere, and pricing is still below the age of arbitrage. And so, from both the pricing and volume perspective, we feel like and and are seeing opportunities here in the second half, which is why we call that out so.

那麼，接下來回答您關於乙烯基的第一個問題，進入第二季度，庫存很少，週轉活動頻繁，主要在西半球，定價仍然低於套利年齡。因此，從定價和數量的角度來看，我們都感覺並且在下半年看到了機會，這就是我們這樣稱呼的原因。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞

Good morning. Just a couple of quick ones. First, with going back to the discussion about the one time versus structural improvement this year, can you give a sense for what the visible carryovers are into 2026, on both the EBITDA side and the free cash flow side.

早安.僅舉幾例。首先，回到今年關於一次性改進與結構性改進的討論，您能否說明一下 2026 年可見的結轉情況，包括 EBITDA 方面和自由現金流方面。

Second, very quickly on the high impact projects, is that pool of opportunities growing or are you just doing a better job? You're winning kind of the targets you go after. And then just lastly, I think kind of it's easy for us on the outside to debate spreads and the direction of spreads.

其次，對於影響深遠的項目，機會是否不斷增加，還是你們只是做得更好了？您正在實現您所追求的目標。最後，我認為我們局外人很容易爭論利差和利差的方向。

But if you think about a return to a strong global environment at some point in the next four or five years, If you fully flex your portfolio, how much would your earnings or EBITDA lift or your sales lift just from the uptake in volume?

但是，如果您考慮在未來四到五年內某個時候恢復強勁的全球環境，如果您充分靈活運用您的投資組合，那麼僅憑銷量增長，您的收益或 EBITDA 或銷售額將提高多少？

Okay, a lot to unpack there, Lawrence. Let me start with, kind of the '26 run rate. It's too early to speculate really on where demand is, so we can only kind of look at where we are today. And as I called out, if demand were to say similar to what we see here in the second quarter with the self-help actions and things that come back in the second half, we'll be on kind of that $2 trajectory is how I would see things.

好的，有很多事情需要解決，勞倫斯。讓我先從 26 年的運行率開始。現在推測需求究竟在哪裡還為時過早，所以我們只能看看我們目前的狀況。正如我所說的，如果需求與我們在第二季度看到的類似，透過採取自助行動以及下半年出現的情況類似，那麼我們將處於 2 美元的軌跡上，這就是我所看到的情況。

You will have some quarterization that'll look a little different going forward than things in the past. For example, this tow dividend, we will not have it in the first quarter. So we'll have to kind of, think about how that plays out, but we're also going to continue to be hopefully some of the other actions we're taking around pricing as well as things on the high impact program side of things, will take hold.

您將會看到一些與過去略有不同的季度劃分。比如說這個拖吊股息，我們在第一季就不會有。因此，我們必須考慮事情會如何發展，但我們也將繼續希望我們在定價以及高影響力計劃方面採取的一些其他行動能夠取得成功。

So, that's how I would think about it right now and as we get closer, to the end of the year we'll provide obviously a lot more color on other things that we're driving. On the high impact program side of things, I mean this is an area where we're really getting focused around those things that we believe are to grow at differentiate differential levels in areas where we have unique offerings and things that we bring to customers and what we believe we can win in all regions of the world.

所以，這就是我現在的想法，隨著年底的臨近，我們顯然會在我們正在推動的其他事情上提供更多細節。在高影響力計劃方面，我的意思是，我們真正關注的是那些我們認為能夠在差異化水平上實現增長的事物，在這些領域，我們擁有獨特的產品和我們帶給客戶的東西，我們相信我們能夠在世界所有地區取得成功。

And again, this doesn't mean we're going to stop doing other things. It means that we're really going to pivot our resources and put a concerted effort around these things. And so it is an area that we believe we will grow further and faster than what we have been growing in some of these areas previously.

再次強調，這並不代表我們會停止做其他事情。這意味著我們確實要調動我們的資源並圍繞這些事情做出共同的努力。因此，我們相信，我們在該領域的成長將比以前在某些領域的成長更快、更快。

And look, from a spread perspective, I don't want to speculate because it's uncertain as to where demand, will go, but I think you have to really look at first on the acetyls chain side of things. I mean, we are at historical low levels, of consumption, particularly in the Western Hemisphere in areas like paints, coatings, adhesives.

從價差的角度來看，我不想進行推測，因為不確定需求將走向何方，但我認為你必須先真正專注於乙醯鏈方面的問題。我的意思是，我們的消費處於歷史最低水平，特別是西半球的油漆、塗料、黏合劑等領域。

A lot of these, applications, they don't ship, from Asia because you're moving. 50% water. So these are applications and demand that is going to be regional in nature, and we're at very low levels there. And so as you see recovery there, we believe we are well positioned with our asset base to win

其中許多應用程式無法從亞洲發貨，因為要搬家。其中 50% 是水。因此，這些應用和需求本質上是區域性的，而我們在這方面處於非常低的水平。因此，當您看到那裡復甦時，我們相信，憑藉我們的資產基礎，我們有能力贏得勝利

and you should see some margin expansion as well as volume expansion there and the investments that we've made to expand our VAM capacities over the last six, seven years in North America as well as acetic acid expansions, we believe were well positioned.

您應該會看到利潤率和產量都有所擴大，而且我們在過去六、七年裡在北美為擴大 VAM 產能以及醋酸擴建所做的投資，我們相信已經處於有利地位。

On the engineer materials side of things, the cost that we're taking out, and really continuing to really fully synergize, this business from a cost and a network and a footprint perspective is going to allow us to ramp volumes, and we have compounding assets really now in every corner of the world. And that ability, because we don't need to be the maker of the polymer.

在工程材料方面，我們正在降低成本，並真正繼續充分發揮協同作用，從成本、網路和足跡的角度來看，這項業務將使我們能夠提高產量，而且我們現在在世界各個角落都擁有複合資產。而擁有這種能力，是因為我們不需要成為聚合物的製造者。

So, we buy polymer and compound it, that's okay because the pool of profit sits in that compounding step, and it's the step where we can create unique customer solutions. And so that capability, when you see some demand normalization and with the success of us driving high impact program areas, particularly in areas where we've been underrepresented like China, we think the upside potential is nice going forward.

因此，我們購買聚合物並對其進行複合，這是可以的，因為利潤池就位於複合步驟中，而這是我們可以創建獨特的客戶解決方案的步驟。因此，當您看到一些需求正常化，並且我們成功推動高影響力專案領域時，特別是在我們代表性不足的領域（如中國），我們認為未來的上行潛力很大。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Darryl, we'll make the next question, the last.

達裡爾，我們將問下一個問題，也是最後一個問題。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

Great, thank you and good morning. Some of the industry numbers for things like autos and durable goods were really quite strong in March and April, and there's a thought that that was simply demand that was pulled forward due to tariff concerns.

太好了，謝謝你，早安。3 月份和 4 月份，汽車和耐用品等一些行業的數據確實相當強勁，有人認為，這只是由於關稅問題而提前出現的需求。

And we contrast that to some of your commentary, it sounds like demand is holding in May order books, I think you mentioned are pretty similar to April. So, could you help us reconcile that? Are there other areas that are picking up in Q2 that are offsetting, durables and autos for you, or perhaps that original assumption just wasn't correct. Thank you.

我們將其與您的一些評論進行對比，聽起來五月份的訂單需求保持不變，我認為您提到的情況與四月份的情況非常相似。那麼，您能幫助我們解決這個問題嗎？對您來說，第二季度還有其他領域正在回暖，例如耐用品和汽車，或者也許最初的假設並不正確。謝謝。

Yeah, thank you, Matthew. I think, look, we don't know exactly kind of what the current demand level is. Is it, I, we don't believe it's necessarily pre-buying per se, but end customers certainly were accelerating purchases in things like automotive, and so this could be just a rebalancing and restocking of the value chain and it's why we talk a lot about the uncertainty of demand in the second half.

是的，謝謝你，馬修。我認為，我們並不確切知道當前的需求水準。我認為，我們認為這不一定是預購本身，但最終客戶肯定在加速購買汽車等產品，因此這可能只是價值鏈的重新平衡和補充庫存，這就是為什麼我們談論下半年需求的不確定性。

Because we don't know exactly where that's going to be and kind of what we're seeing right now. We also don't know exactly where June's going to be and so you will have a lot better line of sight as we get a few more weeks into this, but I do think, I don't want to sit there and say demand's not uncertain.

因為我們不知道它究竟會在哪裡，也不知道我們現在看到的是什麼。我們也不知道六月的具體情況，所以隨著我們再過幾週，你就會有更好的預測，但我確實認為，我不想坐在那裡說需求是不確定的。

It very much is. We're not necessarily hearing that from our customers, but we also can't make the assumption that this isn't just a little bit of that rebuild the supply chain. Now what I will say though is, tariff impact is still impacting automotive.

確實如此。我們不一定會從客戶那裡聽到這一點，但我們也不能假設這不僅僅是重建供應鏈的一小部分。現在我想說的是，關稅影響仍然在影響汽車產業。

We haven't really seen, those tariffs weren't a paused, and so, and that is our largest end use, and so there's just a lot of dynamics here that, we're working to clarify here in the coming weeks and months.

我們還沒有真正看到，這些關稅並沒有暫停，所以，這是我們最大的最終用途，所以這裡有很多動態，我們正在努力在未來幾週和幾個月內澄清。

Great, thanks for your comments.

太好了，謝謝你的評論。

Well, thank you, everyone. We'd like to thank, everyone for listening in today. As always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions. Daryl, please go ahead and close out the call.

好的，謝謝大家。我們要感謝大家今天的收聽。像往常一樣，電話會議結束後，我們隨時準備解答您的任何後續問題。達裡爾，請您結束本次電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. Have a wonderful day and now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。祝您有美好的一天，現在就斷開連線。