塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Celanese second-quarter 2025 earnings call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2025 年第二季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to Bill Cunningham. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我將會議交給比爾·坎寧安。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Daryl. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Scott Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck Kyrish, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，達裡爾。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫比爾‧坎寧安 (Bill Cunningham)，是投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Scott Richardson 和財務長 Chuck Kyrish。

Celanese distributed its second quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments as well as a presentation on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

塞拉尼斯透過商業電訊發布了其第二季度收益報告，並在昨天下午在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了準備好的評論和簡報。提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的演講還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，可以在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

With that, Daryl, let's please go ahead and open it up for questions.

達裡爾，好了，現在請大家開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning, Scott. In your prepared comments, you referenced order books beginning to weaken in June and then the trend continuing into July. Can you provide a little more color on really what end markets and you saw that weakening and how severe has that weakening been?

謝謝。早安，史考特。在您準備好的評論中，您提到訂單量在 6 月開始減弱，並且這種趨勢持續到 7 月。您能否提供更多關於終端市場的具體資訊？您看到了哪些終端市場正在走弱？而這種走弱的程度有多嚴重？

Thanks, David. We talked in early June about starting to see China automotive orders pull back a little bit. That has continued into the third quarter here. The other area in Engineered Materials that we've seen a little bit of weakening versus the second quarter is in European demand. The Americas has remained relatively stable there.

謝謝，大衛。我們在六月初談到，中國汽車訂單開始出現小幅回落。這種情況一直持續到第三季。與第二季相比，我們發現工程材料領域另一個略有減弱的領域是歐洲需求。美洲一直保持相對穩定。

And then the other bucket I would call out is in the Western Hemisphere in the (inaudible) chain. I think we've seen volume weakness towards the end of the very end of the quarter, and that has continued into July. I mean those are the, really, I would say, kind of the big buckets of where we've seen that demand change.

然後我要提到的另一個桶子位於西半球的（聽不清楚）鏈中。我認為，我們在本季末就看到了交易量疲軟的現象，而這種情況一直持續到 7 月。我的意思是，我想說，這些確實是我們看到的需求變化的主要方面。

Very good. And just on the $2 per share quarterly EPS run rate, how do we get there via a bridge? And when do we get there, do you think?

非常好。那麼，就每股 2 美元的季度每股盈餘運行率而言，我們如何透過橋樑實現這一目標？您認為我們什麼時候能到達那裡？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think it's important that the $2 for us is really an achievable target. We're talking a lot about it internally. It's not aspirational. We have concrete plans to get there. And I would say those controllable plans fall in two buckets. The first cost structure items and the second is really executing our differentiated business models.

我認為重要的是，2 美元對我們來說確實是一個可以實現的目標。我們內部正在就此進行大量討論。這並不是什麼理想。我們有具體的計劃來實現這一目標。我想說這些可控的計劃分為兩大類。第一個是成本結構項目，第二個是真正執行我們的差異化商業模式。

And so if you kind of start with the midpoint of our Q3 guide of $1.25 a you get about $0.25 to $0.30 going into next year or really into the fourth quarter as well from the inventory movement as well as not having kind of the order timing and the pull-ins we saw into the second quarter.

因此，如果您從我們第三季度指南的中點 1.25 美元開始，那麼從庫存變動以及沒有訂單時間和我們在第二季度看到的拉動來看，到明年或實際上到第四季度，您都會得到大約 0.25 美元到 0.30 美元的收入。

Next year, we called out an additional around $0.10 per quarter of additional cost actions. So that kind of gets you into that $1.60, $1.65 range, which is quite honestly, about the range that we had walked into the third quarter with where Q2 demand had held. And we still had a gap to close there. And that gap for us is really around four controllable areas.

明年，我們要求每季額外採取約 0.10 美元的成本措施。因此，這大概就是 1.60 美元到 1.65 美元的區間，坦白說，這大約是我們進入第三季時第二季需求所保持的區間。我們仍然需要縮小差距。對我們來說，這個差距實際上圍繞著四個可控領域。

The first, additional cost in footprints. Some of these are more complex than the ones we've already actioned but they're doable. They just take a little bit more time, but we're working these really in earnest right now. The second is high-impact programs, driving additional value in high-margin spaces, spaces where we have a real differentiated position.

第一，足跡方面的額外成本。其中一些比我們已經採取的行動更為複雜，但它們是可行的。它們只是需要多一點的時間，但我們現在認真地在做這些事情。第二個是高影響力的項目，在高利潤空間中創造附加價值，在這些空間中我們擁有真正的差異化地位。

The third, additional price opportunities in Engineered Materials. We are getting some price. Certainly, we want to get more. There are certain products and grades that we have where pricing is really at unsustainable levels. So continuing to find ways to move price in discrete pockets of the business there. And the third is that there are pockets of opportunity in the acetyl chain, particularly more in some of our downstream products for us to find additional opportunities there to drive more value -- more volume or price.

第三，工程材料的額外價格機會。我們正在獲得一些價格。當然，我們希望獲得更多。我們的某些產品和等級的價格確實處於難以維持的水平。因此，繼續尋找方法來改變那裡各個業務領域的價格。第三，乙醯鏈中存在著大量機會，特別是在我們的一些下游產品中，我們可以在其中找到更多機會來推動更多價值——更高的產量或價格。

So those are the four controllable actions we're working. These actions will get us to $2 per quarter. It just may be a few quarters delayed versus where we were when demand was a little stronger in the second quarter. But the path, we believe, is strong. And if demand changes, we're ready, and we're ready to pounce and grab that volume if it's there for us.

這就是我們正在採取的四個可控行動。這些措施將使我們每季的收入達到 2 美元。與第二季需求略強的情況相比，這可能只是延遲了幾個季度。但我們相信，這條道路是堅實的。如果需求發生變化，我們已經做好準備，並準備好抓住機會，只要有需求，我們就會抓住機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. Scott, the $25 million inventory reduction impact in the EM segment, you called out specific to 3Q. I mean I know you're focused on reducing inventory levels, but is the magnitude of the impact, a function of just the weaker demand you kind of went through as it relates to order patterns for 3Q and late 2Q?

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。斯科特，您提到了新興市場部門 2500 萬美元的庫存減少對第三季的影響。我的意思是，我知道您專注於降低庫存水平，但影響的程度是否僅取決於您所經歷的與第三季度和第二季度末的訂單模式相關的較弱的需求？

Yes. I'm just going to make a few high-level comments on that, Ghansham, and then I'll let Chuck walk through the specific details. On our fourth quarter earnings call in February, I called out that free cash flow generation was our top priority. And no matter how the year played out, we -- there were a number of scenarios where we were going to pivot to drive free cash flow. And I'm proud of the team here.

是的。甘沙姆，我只想就此發表一些高層評論，然後我會讓查克介紹具體細節。在二月的第四季財報電話會議上，我指出創造自由現金流是我們的首要任務。無論這一年如何發展，我們都有許多需要轉型以推動自由現金流的情況。我為這裡的團隊感到驕傲。

I'm proud of the team around the actions that are being taken. And if you look high level at our free cash flow guide of $700 million to $800 million, when you look at that on a free cash flow per share basis, that's somewhere in that $7 free cash flow per share. That is unique and strong. And so I'm proud of the actions we're taking, and we're going to continue to prioritize cash. So if we need to pivot with demand, we'll do that.

我為正在採取行動的團隊感到自豪。如果您看我們 7 億至 8 億美元的自由現金流指南，當您以每股自由現金流為基礎來看時，那大約是每股 7 美元的自由現金流。這是獨特而強大的。因此，我為我們採取的行動感到自豪，我們將繼續優先考慮現金。因此，如果我們需要根據需求進行調整，我們就會這樣做。

Yes. Ghansham, let me talk about some of the income statement impacts of this. As context, look, we've -- our inventory reduction efforts in EM, we're on a multiyear journey here and it's allowed us to sustainably operate the business at lower inventory and maintain our customer liability standards.

是的。甘沙姆，讓我來談談這件事對損益表的一些影響。從上下文來看，我們在 EM 的庫存減少工作已經進行了多年，這使我們能夠以較低的庫存持續運營業務並保持我們的客戶責任標準。

We're doing this in many different ways, warehouse consolidation, SKU rationalization, safety stock optimization, raw material reductions. As for the third quarter sequential headwind, mix plays a pretty big role here. Some of our products in EM run on a semi-annual production campaign.

我們透過多種不同方式來實現這一目標，包括倉庫整合、SKU 合理化、安全庫存優化、原材料減少。至於第三季的連續逆風，混合在這裡發揮了相當大的作用。我們在 EM 中的一些產品每半年進行一次生產活動。

We ran one of those campaigns in the second quarter on products with a little bit higher associated fixed costs as just part of our normal production plan for the year. This actually generated, Ghansham, a benefit in the second quarter of about $10 million to $15 million to earnings and that was always part of our Q2 earnings guide.

作為今年正常生產計畫的一部分，我們在第二季針對固定成本稍高的產品進行了其中一項活動。這實際上為 Ghansham 帶來了第二季度約 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的收益，並且這一直是我們第二季度收益指南的一部分。

So with the current demand trends, we'll actually draw some of that inventory in the third quarter, which will then generate a similar size negative earnings impact of $10 million to $15 million. And so that's how you get the $25 million net sequential negative impact in Q3.

因此，按照目前的需求趨勢，我們實際上會在第三季消耗部分庫存，這將產生類似規模的負面收益影響，即 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。這就是第三季 2500 萬美元淨連續負面影響的原因。

As for the full year, the earnings impact from 2Q and 3Q basically offset, as I explained. We do expect a small impact in Q4 negative but no real significant impact for the year. It's really important to remember that we're also getting contributions to our inventory reduction through areas like these raw materials and even offtake arrangements, some of which don't have any impact on the income statement from an absorption standpoint.

至於全年，第二季和第三季的獲利影響基本上抵消，正如我所解釋的那樣。我們確實預計第四季度會產生輕微的負面影響，但全年不會產生真正的重大影響。需要記住的是，我們也透過原材料、甚至承購安排等領域為減少庫存做出了貢獻，其中一些從吸收的角度來看對損益表沒有任何影響。

Okay. Very helpful. And just for the second question, as it relates to the 2Q pressure points for the AC segment that you called out, right, so acetate tow and vinyls, how do you expect those two dynamics to evolve sequentially?

好的。非常有幫助。就第二個問題而言，因為它與您提到的 AC 段的 2Q 壓力點有關，那麼醋酸纖維絲束和乙烯基，您預計這兩個動態將如何依次發展？

Yes. We're not expecting a big change right now, Ghansham. We're expecting that to continue, particularly in tow. I mean, as I called out on the first question, we are seeing a little bit of softness in demand to start the third quarter even relative to the second on an acetyl non-tow products. So that's really in that vinyls chain.

是的。我們現在並不期待發生重大變化，甘沙姆。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去，特別是在拖曳方面。我的意思是，正如我在第一個問題中提到的那樣，我們發現第三季開始時乙醯非絲束產品的需求略有疲軟，甚至相對於第二季而言。這確實屬於黑膠唱片鏈。

So I think it's relatively similar with potentially a little bit of downside on the volume side. Now that will be offset in acetyls with us not having turnaround. So that's why you've got the sequential guide up versus where we finished in the second quarter.

所以我認為情況比較類似，只是在數量方面可能會有一點下降。現在乙醯基將被抵消，因為我們沒有周轉。這就是為什麼你會得到與我們第二季結束情況相比更連續的指南。

Okay, very helpful thanks so much.

好的，非常有幫助，非常感謝。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. Are tariffs in China affecting your tow business that is there material that you normally ship into China that's now more difficult because of tariffs or not really?

非常感謝。中國的關稅是否會影響你們的拖車業務？你們通常將貨物運往中國，但現在由於關稅的原因，運輸變得更加困難了？

No, Jeff. Our tow business in China is really done entirely through our joint venture and our joint venture partners. So we're seeing no impact from tariffs.

不，傑夫。我們在中國的拖車業務實際上完全是透過我們的合資企業和合資夥伴來完成的。因此，我們沒有看到關稅的影響。

Okay. And in VAM and acetic acid in China, are you at least breakeven? And of your Asian sales in VAM and acetic acid, is there any that comes from the United States?

好的。在中國的VAM和醋酸領域，你們至少能達到損益兩平嗎？你們在亞洲銷售的VAM和醋酸中，有來自美國的嗎？

Yes, we are breakeven. We're above breakeven still, Jeff. Now what I will say is we are selling less third-party acetic acid than what we have historically. We are, as I called out last quarter, continuing to pivot further into the downstream products like emulsions redispersible powders because we've seen more pockets of value where we can differentiate ourselves.

是的，我們損益平衡。我們仍處於損益平衡點，傑夫。現在我要說的是，我們銷售的第三方乙酸比歷史上少。正如我上個季度所呼籲的那樣，我們將繼續進一步轉向下游產品，例如乳液和可再分散粉末，因為我們看到了更多可以讓我們脫穎而出的價值領域。

So we continue looking at that landscape and kind of working that wheel of products that we have. And that's really pushing us further downstream. We are selling a little bit of US material in Asia in certain regions. Now that may be direct ship or it could come through swaps, et cetera. So whether it's actual or virtual, that has been something that we have been doing since we started up the Clear Lake expansion last year.

因此，我們將繼續關注這一領域並繼續開發我們擁有的產品。這實際上推動了我們進一步向下游發展。我們在亞洲某些地區銷售少量美國材料。現在可能是直接運輸，或者可以透過交換等方式運輸。因此，無論是實際的還是虛擬的，自從去年我們啟動 Clear Lake 擴建以來，我們就一直在做這件事。

Good. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥可·西森。

Hey guys, so just curious, in terms of your third quarter outlook, I recall you had thought you'd get $0.15 to $0.20 or so in cost savings, another $0.15, $0.20 in less turnarounds. Is that still the case, and that would imply sort of this minus $0.50 to get to the midpoint from weaker demand and inventory destocking? So if that's sort of the math, does that minus $0.50, I don't know, maybe come back in the fourth quarter and maybe the seasonality that you typically get isn't as bad as we head into the fourth?

嘿夥計們，我只是好奇，就您對第三季度的展望而言，我記得您曾想過會節省 0.15 美元到 0.20 美元左右的成本，再減少 0.15 美元、0.20 美元的周轉時間。情況仍然如此嗎？這是否意味著由於需求減弱和庫存減少，價格要下降 0.50 美元才能達到中間點？因此，如果是這樣的話，減去 0.50 美元，我不知道，也許會在第四季度回來，也許你通常會遇到的季節性並不像我們進入第四季度那麼糟糕？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. As we kind of look at this, I mean, if you normalize for the inventory and some of those accelerated orders that we saw in the second quarter, that kind of gets you $0.25 or so up off of the Q2 guide. So that basically puts the third quarter, as we're looking at it, it's really from an enterprise perspective, the underlying company is performing kind of at or even slightly better in the third quarter than what we did in the second quarter because of those cost reductions, not having the turnarounds that you talked about. That's definitely rolling through in the numbers as we work away into the third quarter.

是的。謝謝，麥克。當我們這樣看待這個問題時，我的意思是，如果你將庫存和我們在第二季度看到的一些加速訂單正常化，那麼這將使你的收入比第二季度指南高出 0.25 美元左右。因此，從企業角度來看，第三季的基礎公司業績與第二季持平甚至略好，這是由於成本削減，而不是您所說的扭虧為盈。隨著我們進入第三季度，這一數字肯定會有所體現。

It's really just that change in demand. And that is kind of in that $0.25 range as you kind of look at what was in the second quarter to the third quarter. And that's probably somewhere 60% acetyls, 40% Engineered Materials as I would look at it right now.

這其實只是需求的改變。如果你看第二季到第三季的情況，你會發現這個數字大概在 0.25 美元的範圍內。就我現在所見，其中乙醯基含量大概是 60%，工程材料含量為 40%。

Got it. And then as a quick follow-up. I know pretty much all your peers have talked about a [weaker] third and 2025 is coming in pretty disappointing relative to everybody's expectations. But do you think there's anything structural in your businesses that maybe some of the earnings power just won't come back, maybe nylon or parts of EM? I just -- I would have never thought folks to be at this level of earnings.

知道了。然後進行快速跟進。我知道幾乎所有的同行都在談論第三名的實力較弱，而且相對於大家的預期，2025 年的表現相當令人失望。但是，您是否認為您的業務中存在某種結構性問題，導致部分獲利能力無法恢復，例如尼龍或部分新興市場？我只是——我從來沒有想過人們的收入會達到這樣的水平。

So I just wonder if there are some structural issues in the businesses or that could be persisting over several years versus just this year?

所以我只是想知道，這些企業是否存在一些結構性問題，或者這些問題可能會持續幾年，而不僅僅是今年？

Mike, I'm energized by what our team is executing this year. And I'm energized by what we're doing on free cash flow. And we are building, I think, the enterprise in a way that is increasing the earnings power, and we are ready when demand changes. And what we're doing on the cost structure side of things, I mean, just as an example, in acetyls, I think our Western Hemisphere cost structure has never been as low as it is today.

麥克，我們團隊今年的表現讓我充滿活力。我們在自由現金流方面所做的努力讓我充滿活力。我認為，我們正在以一種能夠提高盈利能力的方式建立企業，並且我們已為需求變化做好了準備。我們在成本結構方面所做的工作，例如乙醯基，我認為我們西半球的成本結構從未像今天這樣低。

With the fixed costs we've taken out of the business, the expansions, the low capital debottlenecks that we've done, the low carbon footprint products that we have. In Engineered Materials, for example, the actions that we're taking, we're going to be operating on an S&A plus R&D percentage of sales next year in the range of 8%, which is equivalent to what we were doing pre-COVID in 2019 in a very different demand environment.

我們從業務中抽取了固定成本，進行了擴張，實現了低資本瓶頸，並推出了低碳足跡產品。例如，在工程材料領域，我們正在採取的行動是，明年我們將以 8% 左右的銷售與行政加研發百分比的銷售額來運營，這相當於我們在 2019 年 COVID 之前在非常不同的需求環境下所做的。

And if you kind of normalize and apply that demand environment to today, that S&A plus R&D percentage of sales would be 100 basis points to 200 basis points lower than that 8%. So the things that we're doing are going to give us the ability to respond when demand changes. And certainly, there's pockets of the business that given where things are at today, are challenge. Are they long-term structurally challenged? I don't know about that because actions will be taken.

如果你將這種需求環境標準化並應用到今天，那麼銷售與行政加上研發佔銷售額的百分比將比 8% 低 100 個基點到 200 個基點。因此，我們正在做的事情將使我們有能力對需求的變化做出反應。當然，考慮到目前的狀況，有些業務確實面臨挑戰。它們是否面臨長期結構性挑戰？我不知道這一點，因為將會採取行動。

And I think for us, we are really working to ensure that we don't have a set it and forget it mentality on how we operate the company. There's always more that can be done. And if business isn't performing, then you've got to take action. You've got to drive change. And so that's just -- that action orientation is really kind of what we're building into everything that we're doing here.

我認為，對我們來說，我們正在努力確保我們不會對如何經營公司抱持既定的心態。總是有更多的事情要做。如果業務沒有進展，那麼你就必須採取行動。你必須推動變革。這就是——行動導向實際上就是我們在這裡所做的一切事情中所體現的。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Thank you. Good morning. Scott, I wonder if you have any thoughts on the acetic acid business in China and some of the anti-involution policies that have been proposed. Are you seeing or hearing or thinking that there could be some capacity rationalization in the Chinese market as a function of those policies?

謝謝。早安.史考特，我想知道您對中國的醋酸業務以及已經提出的一些反內捲化政策有什麼看法。您是否看到、聽到或想到，受這些政策的影響，中國市場可能會出現某種產能合理化？

Vincent, I can't speculate, but [will or won't] happen in the market. But definitely, where things are at today, it's extremely challenging, I think, for the entire industry. And I think certainly, China has has taken note of that. And the anti-involution policies that really started to get talked about more a few weeks ago, certainly, in those kind of more establish concentrated, less fragmented spaces are certainly already seeing change. I mean coal, for example, has -- coal pricing has gone up three weeks in a row.

文森特，我無法推測，但市場上會發生或不會發生。但毫無疑問，就目前的情況而言，我認為，對於整個產業來說，這都是極具挑戰性的。我認為中國肯定已經注意到了這一點。幾週前開始被廣泛討論的反內捲化政策，在那些更加集中、不那麼分散的地區肯定已經看到了變化。我的意思是，以煤炭為例，煤炭價格已經連續三週上漲。

I think it's up about 5% in the last month. And so I think those first order elements you're already seeing elements of that. How that applies then into our businesses, in particular, acetic acid, I don't know yet. But certainly, coal as an indicator, is going to drive cost up over time for everyone. And so I do think those dynamics, I think it's important that we continue to stay close to what's happening in our markets.

我認為上個月上漲了約 5%。所以我認為那些一階元素您已經看到了。那麼，這如何應用於我們的業務，特別是乙酸，我還不知道。但可以肯定的是，煤炭作為一種指標，將隨著時間的推移而推高每個人的成本。因此我確實認為這些動態很重要，我們必須繼續密切關注市場動態。

We're going to keep trying things. And we're going to keep finding ways at which to pivot and find pockets of value, and that's probably going to be different today than it's going to be next week. But the team has to kind of work that daily operational execution model in order to be successful.

我們將繼續嘗試。我們將繼續尋找轉變的方法並發現價值點，而今天的情況可能與下週的情況有所不同。但為了取得成功，團隊必須採用這種日常營運執行模式。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, there was a call out in the prepared remarks about medical being weak. And I recall that there had been overstocking during COVID, and that seemed to normalize last year. So is there anything in particular that's causing that end market to be a little sluggish right now?

好的。然後，作為後續行動，準備好的發言中有人呼籲醫療力量薄弱。我記得在新冠疫情期間曾出現過庫存過剩的情況，但去年這種情況似乎已恢復正常。那麼，目前有什麼特別的原因導致終端市場有點低迷嗎？

No, Vincent, it's just really timing. We had a little stronger volumes early in the year than maybe what we're seeing right now. But fundamentally, no, demand is stronger today than it was coming out of COVID for sure. And I don't -- everything that we see doesn't indicate inventory through the chain and end-use demand continues to be pretty stable there.

不，文森特，這只是時間問題。今年年初我們的交易量可能比現在高。但從根本上來說，目前的需求肯定比新冠疫情爆發時更強勁。我不認為我們所看到的一切都表明整個供應鏈中的庫存和最終用途需求仍然相當穩定。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Yeah, hi, good morning. I had a follow-up on the earnings power, I guess, questions around the acetyls business. I guess I mean, that's kind of been the bigger gap in 2Q and 3Q. If you can maybe break apart the pieces between -- you talked about some of the tow destocking impact. It sounds like you're expecting that to go on in the rest of the year. But then like the core acetyls earnings power, is it utilization or demand or something that really needs to drive this?

是的，你好，早安。我對盈利能力進行了追蹤調查，我想，這是有關乙醯業務的問題。我想我的意思是，第二季和第三季的差距更大了。如果您可以將這些部分分開來看的話——您談到了一些拖車去庫存的影響。聽起來你希望這種情況在今年剩餘時間繼續下去。但是，就像核心乙醯基獲利能力一樣，是利用率還是需求，還是真正需要推動這一點的東西？

And how much is there in your control to maybe lift that earnings versus you need to wait on the market, noting that you shut down or at least delayed the start back up of your Frankfurt facility, you're batching Singapore? Is there more that needs to be done or some impaired earnings on that side of the stream that needs more actions? Or is it all market in your view?

您可以在多大程度上控制收益，或者您需要等待市場，注意到您關閉了法蘭克福工廠，或者至少推遲了法蘭克福工廠的重新啟動，您正在批量生產新加坡？是否還有更多工作要做，或是該側的收入受損，需要採取更多行動？還是在您看來這全都是市場？

Josh, the team is driving greater than 20% EBITDA in a business that's probably seeing Western Hemisphere demand at the lowest level it's been in 20 years. And that's certainly not easy to do. As we look at the business, in particular tow, we did see higher volumes in the second quarter than we saw in the first.

喬希 (Josh)，該團隊正在推動業務的 EBITDA 超過 20%，而西半球的需求可能正處於 20 年來的最低水平。而這確實不容易做到。當我們觀察業務，特別是拖車業務時，我們確實看到第二季的銷售量高於第一季。

It just wasn't as strong as what we had originally called out. And the order book indicates that kind of those Q2 volumes are going to be pretty similar into the third quarter. We're seeing kind of the weakness I talked about earlier in the other acetyl products in the Western Hemisphere.

它只是沒有我們最初呼籲的那麼強烈。訂單簿顯示，第二季的訂單量與第三季的訂單量將非常相似。我們看到我之前談到的西半球其他乙醯基產品的弱點。

I do think this is about volume in the Western hemisphere. I mean given the overcapacity in Asia, I mean, we're going to continue to find ways, as I mentioned earlier, to squeeze out more profit there. But for us, this really is about the profitability in the Western Hemisphere and given how volume is so weak, we do believe that's an area that will change over time.

我確實認為這與西半球的數量有關。我的意思是，鑑於亞洲產能過剩，正如我之前提到的，我們將繼續尋找方法在那裡榨取更多利潤。但對我們來說，這實際上與西半球的獲利能力有關，考慮到交易量如此疲軟，我們確實相信這是一個會隨著時間而改變的領域。

And just to kind of give you an idea of that earnings power and where things are at, a 3% volume change in just the Western Hemisphere non-tow in this business is about $10 million per quarter. So it's not insignificant just as a -- to give you a rule of thumb in Engineered Materials, a 3% improvement in that business on a global basis, about $15 million a quarter. So real earnings power from very small volume changes in where these businesses can have success going forward. And we're only improving that equation with the cost structure changes that we're making over time here.

為了讓您大致了解獲利能力和現狀，光是西半球非拖車產業的銷量變化 3% 就意味著每季約 1,000 萬美元。因此，這並不是微不足道的——根據工程材料的經驗法則，在全球範圍內，該業務的成長率為 3%，即每季約 1500 萬美元。因此，實際獲利能力取決於這些企業未來能否取得成功。而且，我們只是透過一段時間內不斷進行的成本結構調整來改善這種狀況。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Salvator Tiano。

Yes, thank you very much. So firstly, I wanted to check specifically as we think about Q4, how should we think about any buckets on earnings Q4 versus Q3. I think you mentioned that there could be some inventory with action initiatives still flowing through. But can you clarify what you -- we should expect there, either items such as seasonality, turnarounds, et cetera? So how should we frame Q4 versus Q3?

是的，非常感謝。因此，首先，我想具體檢查一下，當我們考慮第四季度時，我們應該如何看待第四季度與第三季度的收益對比。我想您提到過，可能有一些庫存和行動計劃仍在進行中。但是您能否澄清一下——我們應該期待什麼，例如季節性、週轉率等等？那我們該如何界定 Q4 與 Q3 的關係呢？

Yes. Thanks, Sal. I think it's important to understand the visibility right now is very short in both businesses. Historically, acetyls, visibility of the order book was kind of two to four weeks. Today, it's very much on the short end of that. Historically, in Engineered Materials, the visibility and confidence in the order book could be four to six weeks.

是的。謝謝，薩爾。我認為，重要的是要了解目前這兩個業務的可見度都很短。從歷史上看，乙醯基的訂單可見度為兩到四周。如今，情況已經大不如前。從歷史上看，在工程材料領域，訂單的可見性和信心可能需要四到六週。

Today, I would say the visibility in Engineered Materials is more like two weeks of orders you can really count on. And so that's hard to predict what's going to happen in the fourth quarter. We have not seen normal seasonality so far year-to-date in anything right now. So it's hard to say, are we going to see real normal seasonality or not? The inventory value chain is extremely light.

今天，我想說工程材料的可見性更像是您可以真正信賴的兩週訂單。因此很難預測第四季會發生什麼。今年到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何正常的季節性現象。因此很難說，我們是否會看到真正的正常季節性？庫存價值鏈極為輕盈。

We do not see big pockets of inventory really anywhere in the value chain in the areas where we have stronger profitability. Chuck did mention a little bit of an inventory draw in the fourth quarter. It's likely on a sequential basis to be actually a positive when compared to the third quarter because it will be then less than what we're seeing here in Q3 based upon how we're seeing things right now from a demand perspective.

在我們盈利能力較強的領域，價值鏈的任何地方都沒有看到大量庫存。查克確實提到了第四季度庫存的減少。與第三季相比，以環比來看，這實際上可能是一個積極的信號，因為根據我們目前從需求角度看到的情況，它將低於我們在第三季度看到的水平。

So I do think it's hard to say what seasonality will be, but I don't think it's unrealistic to think that Q4 would be similar to what we're seeing in the third quarter or even better depending on how things materialize from a demand perspective.

因此，我確實認為很難說季節性會如何，但我認為，認為第四季度的情況會與第三季度類似，甚至更好，這取決於需求角度的情況，這並不是不切實際的。

Perfect, thank you. And I wanted to also ask a little bit about the balance sheet. And specifically, we saw that you extended your revolver to 2030, [$1.75 billion]. So is it fair to say that right now, if we do the math, '26, '27 maturities, they could fully be addressed by everything you have on hand, cash, free cash flow and the revolver? Or is there anything else we're missing? And is there any chance, any reason why you cannot draw the entire $1.75 billion, for example, to repay your 2027 bonds?

非常好，謝謝。我還想問一些有關資產負債表的問題。具體來說，我們看到您將循環信貸期限延長至 2030 年（17.5 億美元）。那麼，現在是否可以這樣說呢？如果我們計算一下，26 年、27 年到期的債務，你手上的所有錢、現金、自由現金流和循環信貸都可以用來解決這些問題。或者我們還遺漏了什麼嗎？是否有任何原因或可能性導致您無法提取全部 17.5 億美元來償還 2027 年債券？

Hey Sal, look, we're focusing on paying down our debt maturities through '27 with our free cash flow generation and then our $1 billion of divestiture proceeds. We're not relying on revolver to pay off those maturities. We have used our revolver temporarily from time to time for a short-term bridge, but then have quickly paid that off.

嘿，薩爾，你看，我們正專注於利用我們的自由現金流和 10 億美元的資產剝離收益來償還到 27 年到期的債務。我們並不依賴循環信貸來償還這些到期債務。我們有時會臨時使用循環貸款作為短期過渡，但很快就會還清。

So I would think about paying down those maturity to '27 through our own cash generation and not using the revolver. Now we know that sometimes our cash generation in any given year can be a little bit back-end loaded. So we'll continue to be prudent and opportunistic in the debt capital markets if we need any further refinancing transactions to kind of bridge some of that payment. But think about those '26 and '27 through our own cash generation.

因此，我會考慮透過我們自己的現金流償還 27 年到期的債務，而不是使用循環信貸。現在我們知道，有時我們某一年的現金產生可能會有點後端負載。因此，如果我們需要任何進一步的再融資交易來彌補部分付款，我們將繼續在債務資本市場上保持謹慎和機會主義。但想想 26 年和 27 年我們透過自己的現金創造所取得的成果。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

花旗銀行的派崔克‧坎寧安 (Patrick Cunningham)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my collections. Pretty consistent price declines in acetyl chain over the past several quarters. Is the bulk of this from just China oversupply and impact from the upstream pieces of the portfolio? How would you characterize the optionality model and success for downstream sales? Have you been getting both price and volume there relatively consistently.

嗨，早安。謝謝你拿走我的收藏品。過去幾個季度，乙醯鏈的價格持續下降。這其中的大部分是否僅僅源自於中國的供應過剩以及投資組合上游部分的影響？您如何描述可選性模型和下游銷售的成功？您是否一直相對穩定地獲得那裡的價格和數量？

Yes. Thanks, Patrick. I think on the downstream sales, pricing has been harder to get there. I mean I think that's been more about volume and finding ways at which to create new opportunities in certain spaces, some out-of kind substitution as well. We've seen success, particularly in parts of Asia, there.

是的。謝謝，派崔克。我認為在下游銷售方面，定價更加困難。我的意思是，我認為這更多的是關於數量和尋找在某些領域創造新機會的方法，以及一些非同尋常的替代方案。我們已經看到了成功，特別是在亞洲部分地區。

I mean there definitely has been some margin compression that we've seen since the beginning of the year on some products from a margin perspective in China. And then -- and we've seen a little bit in certain pockets in the Western Hemisphere, but that's largely been more of a volume story as opposed to a margin decline.

我的意思是，從利潤率的角度來看，自今年年初以來，我們確實看到中國某些產品的利潤率壓縮。然後——我們在西半球的某些地區看到了一些變化，但這主要是銷售問題，而不是利潤率的下降。

Understood. And then just on the free cash flow outlook, can you help us understand what's driving the reiterated $700 million to $800 million there? If we take a further leg down here, do you think you can manage to the low end of that range with further working capital actions?

明白了。然後就自由現金流前景而言，您能否幫助我們理解推動自由現金流再次達到 7 億至 8 億美元的原因是什麼？如果我們進一步降低成本，您是否認為可以透過進一步的營運資本行動達到該範圍的低端？

Yes. As we entered the year, we looked at a number of demand scenarios, and this goes back to Q4 of last year even. And the commensurate inventory actions around each of those demand scenarios to generate $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow.

是的。進入新的一年，我們研究了許多需求情景，這甚至可以追溯到去年第四季。並圍繞每個需求情境採取相應的庫存行動，以產生 7 億至 8 億美元的自由現金流。

So yes, as you mentioned, as we've kind of seen demand soften here, we're prepared to take further those actions and increase the benefit from inventory working capital and currently are confident in that $700 million to $800 million in any demand scenario.

是的，正如您所提到的，由於我們看到需求減弱，我們準備進一步採取這些行動並增加庫存營運資金的收益，並且目前有信心在任何需求情況下都能達到 7 億至 8 億美元。

I also think, Patrick, it's important to clarify, I mean, particularly in the second quarter here, the majority of that free cash flow was generated from operations, not from working capital. Our cash generation is coming from operating cash flow is strong, even despite the fact that we have $650 million to $700 million of interest expense this year. And I think it's that conversion to cash which really shows the strength of these operating models, and that is sustainable.

派崔克，我還認為，澄清這一點很重要，我的意思是，特別是在第二季度，大部分自由現金流來自運營，而不是營運資金。儘管今年我們的利息支出為 6.5 億至 7 億美元，但我們的現金產生來自於強勁的營運現金流。我認為，這種現金轉換真正體現了這些營運模式的優勢，而且是可持續的。

And given that we do believe we're on a multiyear journey of inventory in the Engineered Materials business, even that working capital piece going into 2026 is sustainable. So we feel really good about the cash generation here, and we're going to be continuing to find ways at which to maximize how much cash we're generating from operations.

鑑於我們確實相信工程材料業務的庫存將持續多年，因此即使到 2026 年，營運資本部分也是可持續的。因此，我們對這裡的現金產生感到非常滿意，並且我們將繼續尋找方法來最大限度地提高我們從營運中產生的現金量。

Very helpful. Thank you so much.

非常有幫助。太感謝了。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Good morning, Scott, you gave some interesting rules of thumb regarding volume movements, impacts on acetyls and EM. Just curious, where do you think we are right now on a volume basis relative to historic norms in both of those segments?

早安，斯科特，你給了一些關於成交量變動、對乙醯基和 EM 的影響的有趣的經驗法則。只是好奇，您認為我們現在在交易量方面相對於這兩個領域的歷史標準處於什麼位置？

We're significantly lower, Frank. I mean obviously, I called out earlier, I think we're at least in the Western Hemisphere and acetyl demand, we're probably at the lowest levels we've seen in 20 years. Engineered Materials certainly is weak. I think the first half volumes versus first half last year even, I think, were down 5% to 6% volumetrically. So I mean, if you just kind of think about those, those are big significant changes that we've seen in the business.

我們明顯低得多，弗蘭克。我的意思是，顯然，我之前說過，我認為至少在西半球，乙醯需求可能處於 20 年來的最低水平。工程材料確實很弱。我認為今年上半年的銷售量與去年上半年相比甚至下降了 5% 至 6%。所以我的意思是，如果你仔細想一想，你會發現這些都是我們在業務中看到的重大變化。

Now I know it's just rhetoric right now, but what we are hearing from our customers is that people are looking more at manufacturing in the US We're hearing from customers that going forward. Now when this actually hits, we don't know, but the people are looking at making more cars in the US. People are looking at making more appliances in the US We are seeing even the German automakers now rolling out their next wave of electric vehicles, which have a really strong ability to win, particularly in the Western Hemisphere.

現在我知道這只是說辭，但我們從客戶那裡聽到的是，人們越來越關注美國製造業，我們從客戶那裡聽到了未來的發展。現在，我們不知道這何時真正實現，但人們正在考慮在美國生產更多的汽車。人們正在考慮在美國生產更多的家用電器。我們看到，甚至德國汽車製造商現在也推出了下一波電動車，這些車具有很強的獲勝能力，尤其是在西半球。

Those things will be really beneficial for our businesses on the acetyl side of things, whether it's interest rates or more government spending in Europe or stability in Eastern Europe, any catalyst like that, it's our lowest cost part of the world, our highest margin business, we're going to be able to be able to capture that demand relatively quickly. And so our focus right now is really on in this low demand environment, what are we doing to ready to ensure that every dollar or every ton we sell in the future is worth more than it was in the past.

這些因素對於我們的乙醯基業務來說確實非常有利，無論是利率、歐洲政府支出增加還是東歐的穩定，任何類似的催化劑，都是我們全球成本最低的部分，利潤率最高的業務，我們將能夠相對快速地滿足這種需求。因此，我們現在的重點實際上是在這種低需求環境下，我們要做什麼來確保未來我們銷售的每一美元或每一噸產品的價值都比過去更高。

Got you. That's very helpful. I must tell you, I was surprised to hear the low level of visibility on your order books seem pretty surprising. So to that end, how much visibility? Just curious as to what the general thinking is in terms of the low end or the high end of that $1.10 to $1.40 range for the third quarter. What sort of expectations are embedded on both sides of that?

明白了。這非常有幫助。我必須告訴你，我很驚訝地聽到你的訂單簿的可見度如此之低，這似乎相當令人驚訝。那麼，為此，可見度有多高？我只是好奇對於第三季 1.10 美元至 1.40 美元區間的低端或高端，大家的普遍看法是什麼。雙方對此抱持什麼樣的期望？

Frank, for us, I mean, the controllable actions that we're taking and the things that are rolling through the P&L already do give me confidence. So certainly, where demand could pivot here in the last six weeks of the quarter and can go a number of different directions. But I think where we're performing from a controllable perspective, certainly gives me confidence in our guide right now. And we have to kind of take that mentality and keep that focus going forward.

弗蘭克，對我們來說，我的意思是，我們正在採取的可控行動以及損益表中發生的事情已經給了我信心。因此，毫無疑問，在本季度的最後六週內，需求可能會轉變，並可能朝著多個不同的方向發展。但我認為，從可控的角度來看，我們的表現無疑讓我對我們的指南充滿信心。我們必須秉持這種心態，並持續保持這種專注。

The good thing for us as well is now we're multiple years into this Engineered Materials integration, for example, which means we're now finally starting to get historical Celanese products on M&M assets and historical M&M products on Celanese assets, which gives us a lot better cost to serve. It has kind of given us the ability to lower the inventory.

對我們來說，好消息是，我們已經進行了多年的工程材料整合，這意味著我們現在終於開始在 M&M 資產上獲得塞拉尼斯的歷史產品，在塞拉尼斯資產上獲得 M&M 的歷史產品，這為我們提供更好的服務成本。它在某種程度上賦予了我們降低庫存的能力。

But what it also does is it gives us the ability to do more make-to-order products. And so it's less inventory that we have to carry so we can respond to that demand. And so it's those types of things that I think we're being a lot more efficient with the business broadly, which does give me confidence that no matter what happens with demand, we can find a way to at least hit our cash flow numbers.

但它也讓我們有能力生產更多按訂單生產的產品。因此，我們需要持有的庫存更少，以便能夠滿足需求。因此，我認為正是這些事情讓我們的業務整體上變得更加高效，這確實讓我相信，無論需求發生什麼變化，我們都能找到至少達到現金流數字的方法。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Thanks. Good morning, Scott, I wanted to ask you about this demand pattern of stronger second quarter, weaker third quarter in EM. Do you have a view of what's sort of underlying reason for this? Is this terrifying? Is there just weaker production schedules or consumer or any color here would be great.

謝謝。早安，史考特，我想問您關於新興市場第二季需求強勁、第三季需求疲軟的模式的問題。您對這種現象的根本原因有何看法？這很可怕嗎？是不是只是生產計劃較弱，或是消費者或任何顏色都很好。

Aleksey, I hate to do this to you, but your line kind of cut out for us on my end. So do you mind repeating your question for me?

阿列克謝，我不想這樣對你，但從我的角度來看，你的台詞對我們來說有點合適。那你介意為我重複你的問題嗎？

Yes. Sorry. Just underlying reasons for stronger 2Q and weaker 3Q in Engineered Materials. Is it tariff or something else?

是的。對不起。這只是工程材料第二季表現強勁、第三季表現疲軟的根本原因。是關稅還是其他什麼？

Look, I think it's hard to say how much is really driven by tariffs. I think some of the order timing, particularly on volumes that for products that were ordered in China that are made in the US, that's probably the majority of that kind of $10 million to $15 million or so that we saw that we think kind of moved into the second quarter.

聽著，我認為很難說究竟有多少是由關稅推動的。我認為一些訂單時間，特別是在中國訂購並在美國製造的產品的數量，可能占到我們所看到的 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元左右的大部分，我們認為這些訂單已經進入第二季度。

I would characterize demand right now really across both businesses is uncertain, and that's what we hear from our customers. And so in that time, what customers are doing is they're lowering their inventories. And you've seen, obviously, a host of announcements in our sector here this quarter and from our downstream customers and almost everyone is pulling back on inventories.

我認為目前兩家公司的需求確實不確定，這也是我們從客戶那裡聽到的。因此，在這段時間裡，客戶所做的就是降低庫存。顯然，您已經看到本季度我們這個行業以及下游客戶發布了大量公告，幾乎每個人都在減少庫存。

And when they pull back on inventories, it's going to certainly impact how much product we end up selling. And I think it's that uncertainty and whether it's tariffs or geopolitical reasons, people are just certainly being a lot more prudent. Now we saw this as we entered the year.

當他們減少庫存時，這肯定會影響我們最終銷售的產品數量。我認為正是這種不確定性，無論是關稅還是地緣政治原因，人們肯定會變得更加謹慎。如今，當我們進入新的一年時，我們看到了這一點。

And as we entered the year, we knew it was going to be about cash and lowering inventory. And so that's kind of how we've been operating. And again, as I said earlier, I'm really proud of the actions our team has been taking to really focus on reducing our cost structure and generating cash.

當我們進入新的一年時，我們知道這將與現金和降低庫存有關。這就是我們的運作方式。正如我之前所說，我為我們的團隊所採取的行動感到非常自豪，這些行動真正致力於降低成本結構和創造現金。

Thanks Scott. And then filter tow, how much certainty do you have that this is not a share loss but a destock? How much visibility do you have in these competitive dynamics?

謝謝斯科特。然後過濾拖曳，你有多大把握這不是股票損失而是去庫存？您對這些競爭動態的了解程度如何？

From the visibility we've seen thus far, Aleksey, I don't think we've seen significant share loss. I mean there's some additional capacity that's being sold in the market, is not a new entrant, but just some additional debottleneck capacity that's in the market, but that's not really impacting our demand per se.

從我們目前所看到的可見性來看，阿列克謝，我認為我們沒有看到明顯的份額損失。我的意思是，市場上正在出售一些額外的產能，這不是新進入者，而是市場上一些額外的瓶頸產能，但這並沒有真正影響我們的需求本身。

I think where it's having an impact is customers don't need to hold as much inventory and at least that's a perception right now. And so I think people have been comfortable operating at lower inventory levels, and that's kind of what materialized through the second quarter.

我認為它的影響在於客戶不需要持有那麼多庫存，至少目前是這樣的看法。因此我認為人們已經習慣在較低的庫存水平下運營，而這正是第二季度實現的。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great, thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. I want to go back to the bridge, Scott, that you provided from $1.25 to $2. But I think you said the inventory actions, that was maybe $0.25 to $0.30. The current cost program was $10 to $15 million, and that got you to $1.65. So I think you then said that, that would have gotten you to $2 if were not for the volume shortfall and then there are the four controllables.

太好了，感謝您回答我的問題。希望你們一切都好。斯科特，我想回到你提供的從 1.25 美元到 2 美元的橋樑。但我記得您說的是庫存調整，那大概是0.25美元到0.30美元。目前的成本計劃是1000萬到1500萬美元，所以成本降到了1.65美元。所以我記得您當時說的是，如果不是因為產量不足，成本降到2美元，然後還有四個可控因素。

So I guess, if volumes do come back, or would normalized volumes get you to $0.35? Or given that volumes are at 20-year lows, would normalized volumes get you closer to maybe $3? And then with your controllables, you maybe have like very, very long-term line of sight to north of $3. Is that the right way to think about it? What was the volume kind of shortfall from a normalized perspective?

所以我猜，如果交易量確實回升，或者正常化交易量會讓你達到 0.35 美元？或者考慮到交易量處於 20 年來的最低水平，正常化交易量是否會讓價格更接近 3 美元？然後，透過你的控制因素，你可能會有非常非常長期的目標，可以達到 3 美元以上。這是正確的思考方式嗎？從標準化角度來看，數量短缺是什麼？

Yes. Arun, we're waking up every day and just trying to put one foot in front of the other, and we've got to look at what's in front of us right now. And our next milestone is $2. And once we hit $2, then we'll set the next milestone for where things are. And we've been building a plan here that to get to that $2 per quarter level, that is through controllable actions as I kind of walked through.

是的。阿倫，我們每天醒來，只是努力邁出一步，我們必須看看現在我們面前有什麼。我們的下一個里程碑是 2 美元。一旦達到 2 美元，我們就會為現狀設定下一個里程碑。我們一直在製定計劃，透過可控的行動達到每季 2 美元的水平，正如我所走過的那樣。

The walk I had done earlier in the year got you in that $1.70, $1.80 range keeping Q2 volumes flat and through the balance of the year. And that's not what we're seeing right now. It's hard to say what normalized volumes are right now, but just Q2 volumes and that dynamic is worth about $0.25, $0.30. So it kind of gets you into that range certainly, but we're not going to count on that. We have to continue to work the controllable items that we have in front of us to get to that level. And if demand is there, we're going to be poised to capture it.

我在今年早些時候進行的訪問使您處於 1.70 美元至 1.80 美元的範圍內，從而使第二季度的交易量保持平穩並持續到今年年底。但我們現在看到的情況並非如此。目前很難說標準化交易量是多少，但僅就第二季的交易量而言，其動態價值約為0.25美元或0.30美元。所以這肯定會讓你進入這個範圍，但我們不會依賴這個範圍。我們必須繼續努力解決眼前的可控問題，以達到這個水準。如果有需求，我們就會做好準備去滿足它。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just as a quick follow-up. I think the other actions you mentioned, I get the additional cost, but I just wanted to ask about the second and fourth items. So the second item, I think you mentioned really harnessing some of your value-based programs.

好的。這很有幫助。然後只是進行快速跟進。我認為您提到的其他行動，我會得到額外的費用，但我只是想詢問第二項和第四項。因此第二點，我認為您提到了真正利用一些基於價值的計劃。

Could you just provide a little bit more detail there? And then similarly, on the acetyl chain, is the uplift that you see there going to require a better construction and (inaudible) environment? Or what would you say would lead to better acetyl chain results?

能否提供更多細節？然後類似地，在乙醯鏈上，您看到的隆起是否需要更好的構造和（聽不清楚）環境？或者您說什麼會導致更好的乙醯鏈結果？

Yes. Let me hit that point first. I mean certainly, the paints, coatings, construction demand in the Western Hemisphere that we're seeing is extremely weak. And so any change there would be pretty attractive from an incremental perspective given that rule of thumb that I mentioned earlier.

是的。讓我先談一下這一點。我的意思是，我們看到西半球的油漆、塗料和建築需求極度疲軟。因此，根據我之前提到的經驗法則，從漸進的角度來看，任何改變都是非常有吸引力的。

That's probably the weakest part of the business versus today versus when we started the year. And so certainly, any change that we would see there and anything to catalyze demand on that side of things would be extremely beneficial, just because that is our highest margin area.

與年初相比，這可能是我們目前業務中最薄弱的部分。因此，我們在那裡看到的任何變化以及任何能夠刺激該方面需求的事物都將是極其有益的，因為那是我們利潤最高的領域。

When it comes to high-impact programs in the Engineered Materials business, I mean, we are committed to broadening and diversifying the business, finding additional pockets of opportunity outside of automotive within the automotive business. And we have a lot of different examples of the things that the team is working on. And the non-auto, that could be things like drug delivery, performance footwear, fibers, hydrogen clean energy, oil and gas, I mean these are spaces where we've had wins recently, nice wins, and it's about multiplying those wins.

當談到工程材料業務中的高影響力項目時，我的意思是，我們致力於擴大和多樣化業務，在汽車業務中尋找汽車以外的更多機會。我們有很多關於團隊正在進行的工作的不同例子。非汽車領域可能包括藥物輸送、高性能鞋類、纖維、氫清潔能源、石油和天然氣等，我的意思是，這些領域是我們最近取得了勝利，不錯的勝利，而我們要做的就是將這些勝利擴大。

In automotive, EV propulsion, batteries, cooling, advanced suspension systems. These are all unique areas where our products fit extremely well and where we're gaining traction. Now some of those auto opportunities take longer. So it is really about accelerating kind of the full pipeline of opportunities in the hips to ensure that as we get into 2026, we have new demand materializing to the bottom line.

在汽車、電動車推進、電池、冷卻、先進的懸吊系統領域。這些都是獨特的領域，我們的產品非常適合這些領域，我們正在獲得關注。現在，有些汽車機會需要更長的時間。因此，這實際上是為了加速臀部的全部機會，以確保當我們進入 2026 年時，我們有新的需求實現到底線。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德（Hassan Ahmed），Alembic Global。

Morning Scott. I appreciate the details in the presentation you gave around the acetyls chain and over the years showing us how you've imparted sort of earnings stability and the like and also how 70% now of your revs come from the Western Hemisphere and 70% of those are contracted out.

早安，史考特。我很欣賞您在演示中對乙醯基鏈所做的詳細說明，以及多年來您向我們展示的如何賦予收益穩定性等，以及現在 70% 的收入來自西半球，其中 70% 是外包的。

And you're obviously seeing that even in the near-term results, right? I mean the guidance that you gave for us at us than relatively flat with Q2. So my question is if you sort of take that model and try to incorporate those best practices within the EM side, how would it look? And particularly in light of some of the comments that you just made about hearing rumblings about manufacturing moving more to the Western Hemisphere and the like.

而且您顯然也看到了短期結果，對嗎？我的意思是，您給我們的指導與第二季相比相對持平。所以我的問題是，如果您採用該模型並嘗試將這些最佳實踐納入 EM 方面，它會是什麼樣子？特別是考慮到您剛才聽到的關於製造業更多地轉移到西半球等的傳言。

Certainly, there's areas of Engineered Materials, Hassan, that have elements of the elements of the acetyls business, particularly in standard grade materials, areas like Palm, our polyester business, nylon. The standard space is do have some of those kind of daily operational elements.

當然，哈桑，工程材料領域包含乙醯基業務的元素，特別是在標準級材料領域，例如棕櫚、聚酯業務、尼龍。標準空間確實有一些這樣的日常操作元素。

And the Engineered Materials team really is looking at the segments of the business within each product line on how we drive and compete. And I think nylon is a perfect example of using some of those elements and looking at do we make versus buy? Do we buy polymer from the market and compound for standard compounded products because that gives us a lower cost structure?

工程材料團隊實際上正在研究每個產品線內的業務部分，以了解我們如何推動和競爭。我認為尼龍是利用這些元素的完美例子，看看我們是製造還是購買？我們是否從市場上購買聚合物並將其混合用於標準複合產品，因為這樣可以降低成本結構？

Do we find different ways to buy materials cheaper? Otherwise. Do we pivot materials to our lower-cost elements of production, and we've done some of that through the shutdowns of higher cost capacity that we've done in maximizing production in our lowest-cost assets.

我們是否能找到其他更便宜的方法來購買材料？否則。我們是否將材料轉向成本較低的生產要素，我們已經透過關閉成本較高的產能來實現這一目標，從而最大限度地提高成本最低的資產的產量。

And so there definitely are elements there. Our US footprint that we have in both businesses is extremely low cost, and it is advantaged. And so as we see demand pivot back to the US, if that occurs, I think we're well positioned as anyone in our competitive landscape to be able to capture that demand very quickly.

所以那裡肯定存在一些因素。我們在美國開展兩項業務的成本極低，而且具有優勢。因此，當我們看到需求轉向美國時，如果發生這種情況，我認為我們在競爭格局中處於有利地位，能夠非常迅速地滿足這一需求。

Very helpful, Scott. And as a follow-up, I mean, obviously, the macro continues to weaken, a fair degree of uncertainty in the marketplace. And obviously, the chemical industry sort of valuations keep coming down as well. Where do you guys stand with regards to the $1 billion in divestiture that you guys had sort of flagged to sort of accomplish within the next 2.5 years?

非常有幫助，斯科特。作為後續，我的意思是，顯然宏觀經濟持續走弱，市場上存在相當程度的不確定性。顯然，化工業的估值也在持續下降。你們計劃在未來 2.5 年內剝離 10 億美元資產，你們對此有何看法？

Thanks, Hassan. The Micromax process we announced publicly a quarter ago is going very well. We have worked our way through the first round of bids. We narrowed that down to a nice diverse group for the second round. Management presentations are completed.

謝謝，哈桑。我們一個季度前公開宣布的 Micromax 流程進展非常順利。我們已經完成了第一輪競標。我們將範圍縮小到第二輪的多元化群體。管理演示已完成。

We've -- we're working through site visits and expert calls and kind of fully through the diligence process right now, and we expect to have second round bids in the next month or so. And they we'll narrow that further to a third round and work to conclusion, we think, at some point here in the second half of the year.

我們正在透過現場訪問和專家電話進行工作，目前正全面進行盡職調查流程，我們預計將在下個月左右進行第二輪投標。我們將進一步縮小範圍，進入第三輪，並努力在今年下半年的某個時候得出結論。

So we feel really good about the Micromax process. I actually asked the Head of M&A yesterday as a matter of fact. And I said, you feel more confident today in our non-Micromax projects than you did a quarter ago, and he said, absolutely.

因此，我們對 Micromax 流程感到非常滿意。事實上，我昨天確實有詢問過併購主管。我說，你今天對我們的非 Micromax 專案比一個季度前更有信心，他說，絕對是如此。

And I do think we've seen some traction there. I mean a lot of the deals we're working there are are a little more complex, some are with our joint ventures, and those are harder to get done. And so they do take longer, but I do think the work the team is doing to keep the focus on those with the highest degree of profitability, I would say we feel more confident in that today than we maybe did a few months ago.

我確實認為我們已經看到了一些進展。我的意思是，我們在那裡進行的許多交易都比較複雜，有些是與我們的合資企業進行的，這些交易更難完成。因此他們確實需要更長的時間，但我確實認為團隊正在做的工作是將重點放在盈利能力最高的項目上，我想說我們今天對此比幾個月前更有信心。

Very helpful, Scott. Thank you so much.

非常有幫助，斯科特。太感謝了。

John Roberts, Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的約翰羅伯茲。

Thank you. Selling third-party acetic, what you used to call parlay, was a core part of the acetic acid strategy. Is the lower third-party sales, something Structural here, just the industry has changed enough that doesn't make sense? Or is it just a cyclical decline because it requires working capital, which maybe you don't want to extend right now? Or maybe there's just -- there's less margin, obviously, at lower prices. So how much of this third-party decline which used to be part of the core is cyclical versus structural?

謝謝。銷售第三方醋酸，也就是過去所說的 parlay，是醋酸策略的核心部分。第三方銷售額較低，是結構性因素嗎？還是產業已經發生了足夠大的變化，這不合理？或者這只是週期性的衰退，因為它需要營運資本，而你現在可能不想延長營運資本？或者可能只是——價格越低，利潤就越低。那麼，曾經屬於核心部分的第三方衰退有多少是週期性的，有多少是結構性的？

John, you've covered us for a long time, and you know that this business changes every single day. And is it structural? No, I don't think it's structural. It may take a while for that dynamic to change. But there's a lot of moving parts here and margins are really at unsustainable levels. So I do think that's why you're seeing us make the choices that we're making to further pivot downstream. And I think the work that we've done there and debottlenecking capacity downstream has given us another outlet, so they were not so reliant.

約翰，你報道我們很久了，你知道這個行業每天都在改變。它是結構性的嗎？不，我不認為這是結構性的。這種動態可能需要一段時間才能改變。但這裡有很多變動因素，利潤率確實處於不可持續的水平。所以我確實認為這就是為什麼你會看到我們做出進一步轉向下游的選擇。我認為我們在那裡所做的工作以及消除下游產能瓶頸為我們提供了另一個出路，因此他們不再那麼依賴。

And 10, 15 years ago, we were extremely reliant on selling third-party acetic acid, and we're not today. And that business in some years was well over 50% of the end products that we're selling, and now it's less than 30%. So I think for us today, I think having more diversity in the business is a good thing. Certainly, we'd like acetic acid margins to be better than they are. But this things pivot here, and we're going to make sure that we continue to pivot with the market as opportunities present themselves.

10 到 15 年前，我們極度依賴銷售第三方乙酸，現在情況已不再如此。在某些年份，這項業務占我們銷售的最終產品的 50% 以上，但現在卻不到 30%。所以我認為對我們今天來說，業務更加多元化是件好事。當然，我們希望醋酸利潤率能比現在更好。但事情在這裡發生了轉變，我們將確保隨著機會的出現，我們將繼續隨著市場的變化而轉變。

And then can you say that the Micromax deal will be simple, all cash or do you think there might be an earn-out or something a little bit more complicated with that deal?

那麼，您能否說 Micromax 交易會很簡單，全現金支付？或者您認為該交易可能有盈利支付或更複雜的一些方式？

We're working deals, John, to keep the complexity at a minimum on the deals that we're doing. And I think for us right now, we're quite confident that we won't have an outcome that's super complex.

約翰，我們正在努力將我們所做交易的複雜性降至最低。我認為就目前而言，我們非常有信心不會出現過於複雜的結果。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah we'll make the next question or last one please.

是的，我們將提出下一個問題或最後一個問題。

Matthew Blair, Tudor Pickering and Holt.

馬修布萊爾、都鐸皮克林和霍爾特。

Great, thank you and good morning. You mentioned Auto (inaudible), but could you talk a little bit about the mix within autos? Historically, Celanese has enjoyed some nice tailwinds from things like hybrids and EVs. Are those tailwinds still present? Or are they starting to reverse?

太好了，謝謝你，早安。您提到了汽車（聽不清楚），但是您能稍微談談汽車內部的混合嗎？從歷史上看，塞拉尼斯曾享受過混合動力汽車和電動車等產品帶來的良好順風。這些順風還存在嗎？或者他們開始逆轉了？

We're not seeing a big reversal right now. Certainly, with demand pulling back in China, our sales into EVs on a global basis are probably a little bit less today just because of more where the end user demand is. Electric vehicles are definitely here to stay. I think each region is going to be a little bit different. Certainly, EVs are going to play a big role in Europe for us.

我們現在還沒有看到大的逆轉。當然，隨著中國需求的回落，我們在全球範圍內的電動車銷量可能今天會略有下降，只是因為最終用戶的需求增加。電動車肯定會繼續存在。我認為每個地區都會有點不同。毫無疑問，電動車將在歐洲發揮重要作用。

And we feel really good about the portfolio that we have developing from a pipeline perspective there. In the US, it's going to be a mixture. There's going to be ICE, there's going to be hybrids and electric. And so we have to make sure that we're remaining nimble and flexible with our customers so that we can meet those needs because I do think it's going to be a changing mix here for (inaudible).

從管道角度來看，我們對我們正在開發的投資組合感到非常滿意。在美國，情況將會是混合的。將會有內燃機、混合動力車和電動車。因此，我們必須確保對客戶保持靈活和靈活，以便我們能夠滿足這些需求，因為我確實認為這將是一個不斷變化的組合。（聽不清楚）。

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, very much. We'd like to thank everyone for listening today. As always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions. Daryl, please go ahead and close up the call.

好的。好吧，非常感謝大家。我們感謝大家今天的聆聽。與往常一樣，通話結束後我們仍可解答任何後續問題。達裡爾，請繼續，然後結束通話。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We appreciate your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time. and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。請立即斷開您的線路。並享受剩餘的一天。