塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Celanese's Q4 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, VP of Investor Relations, Brandon Ayache. Please go ahead, Brandon.

大家好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2022年第四季財報電話會議及網路直播。 （操作員指示）溫馨提醒，本次會議正在錄音中。現在，我很高興將電話會議交給主持人、投資者關係副總裁布蘭登·阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache)。布蘭登，請開始。

Thank you, Kevin. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese distributed its fourth quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

謝謝，凱文。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2022年第四季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁布蘭登‧阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache)。今天與我一同參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk 和財務長 Scott Richardson。塞拉尼斯已透過美國商業資訊 (Business Wire) 發布其第四季度財報，並於昨天下午在投資者關係網站上發布了事先準備好的評論。

As a reminder, today, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release as well as prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC. Since we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll go directly to your questions. Kevin, let's go ahead and please open it up for questions.

提醒一下，今天我們將討論非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。今天的演示還將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看關於前瞻性陳述的警示性措辭，該措辭可在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。由於我們昨天發布了準備好的評論，因此我們將直接回答您的問題。凱文，我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from John McNulty from BMO Capital Markets. And we do you ask 1 question, 1 follow-up then return to the queue.

（操作員指示）今天我們的第一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行資本市場的約翰·麥克納爾蒂。我們會先問一個問題，然後再進行後續提問，之後再回到提問隊列。

So look, obviously, a lot of moving pieces out there, but the tough first quarter outlook for $1.50 to $1.75 of EPS makes the full year call for $12 to $13 look like a pretty chunky jump. I guess can you help us to bridge that jump in earnings and help us to understand what some of the big buckets are that you expect to turn up or take a noticeable step up?

所以，顯然，市場波動因素很多，但鑑於第一季每股收益 1.50 美元至 1.75 美元的艱難預期，全年每股收益 12 美元至 13 美元的預期看起來漲幅相當大。您能否幫助我們理解獲利成長帶來的這種影響，並幫助我們了解您預計會出現哪些重大成長或顯著提升？

Thanks, John. Yes, look, we realized that looks like a big jump up, but let's kind of go through the math. We really need to deliver about 3 50 for the last 3 quarters of the year in order to hit that $12 to $13 guidance. So if you look at that, well, that seems like a big jump, it's not unknown territory to us. In fact, that's where we've been every quarter in the last 2 years, up until this quarter. But if I look at just the jump up from Q1 to Q2, let's start with acetyls. So in acetyls, I would expect a $50 million to $100 million increase in Q2 off of Q1. We'll start with natural gas. So natural gas pricing has come down significantly. At the end of the fourth quarter and in the first quarter, especially in the U.S., that's a big help for us in acetyls, our largest plants in Clear Lake. We have a lot of other facilities in the U.S. that benefit from that lower natural gas pricing and with coal staying higher in China and with crude being reasonably high and steady, that really benefits margins for our U.S.-based production, which is a large portion of our acetyls.

謝謝，約翰。是的，你看，我們意識到這看起來像是一個很大的飛躍，但讓我們來算一下。為了達到12美元到13美元的指導價格，我們確實需要在今年最後三個季度交付約35000000件產品。所以，如果你看一下，嗯，這看起來像是一個很大的飛躍，這對我們來說並非未知領域。事實上，直到本季度，過去兩年我們每個季度都處於這個水平。但如果我只看第一季到第二季的成長，我們先從乙醯基開始。在乙醯基方面，我預計第二季將比第一季增加5,000萬到1億美元。我們先從天然氣開始。天然氣價格已經大幅下降。在第四季度末和第一季度，尤其是在美國，這對我們位於Clear Lake的最大乙醯基工廠——乙醯基業務來說是一個很大的幫助。我們在美國還有很多其他工廠，它們受益於較低的天然氣價格，而且中國煤炭價格保持較高水平，原油價格也保持在合理高位且穩定，這確實有利於我們在美國生產的利潤率，而美國生產的乙醯基產品佔了我們乙醯基產品的很大一部分。

So if you look just at this natural gas pricing, if it were to hold through the second quarter, that alone is probably more than $20 million of uplift in the second quarter. And then if we look at things like the Frankfurt BAM restart, that is being restarted a little bit early based on the good increase we've seen here going into March. for construction, paints and coating in Europe, a little bit quicker recovery than we expected. So that Western seasonality coming off, that's probably another $10 million. And then you just have the normal good economics we typically experience in the second quarter. So we see destocking really being over. We're past Chinese New Year. We see improvement in construction activities worldwide. And so we expect to see that same kind of volume rebound as well as productivity. I mean we -- last year, in 2022, saw productivity at the high range of our historic 100 to 150. We expect we'll be in a similar level this year and adding on additional productivity from M&M for the EM side. So that all goes in there.

所以，如果僅從天然氣價格來看，如果天然氣價格能維持到第二季度，光是這一項就可能在第二季帶來超過2,000萬美元的增幅。再看看法蘭克福BAM重啟的情況，由於我們3月看到的良好成長，重啟時間略早。歐洲建築、油漆和塗料行業的復甦速度比我們預期的要快一些。西方季節性因素的消退，可能又會帶來1000萬美元的增幅。然後，我們又會看到我們通常在第二季度經歷的良好經濟狀況。因此，我們看到去庫存的階段已經真正結束。農曆新年已經過去。我們看到全球建築活動有所改善。因此，我們預期產量和生產力都會出現同樣的反彈。我的意思是，去年，也就是2022年，我們的生產力達到了歷史性的100到150的高點。我們預計今年也會達到類似的水平，並且還會為新興市場增加M&M的額外生產力。所有這些都包含在內。

So we feel very comfortable right now with where energy pricing is that we're actually probably towards the higher end of that range for the acetyl bump up in the second quarter. And then if we look at Engineered Materials and including M&M, again, Q2 is typically a stronger quarter for Engineered Materials as well for a lot of same reasons. We do see the -- well, first, let me start with this. I mean we have seen, just like natural gas, in acetyls, we have seen significant drop in raw material costs in the first quarter, which is extending through into the second quarter.

因此，我們目前對能源價格感到非常放心，實際上，由於第二季乙醯基價格上漲，能源價格可能已經處於該區間的高端。如果我們再看看工程材料，包括M&M，由於許多相同的原因，第二季通常也是工程材料表現較強勁的季度。我們確實看到了——嗯，首先，讓我先說這一點。我的意思是，就像天然氣一樣，乙醯基的原料成本在第一季大幅下降，而這種下降趨勢一直延續到第二季​​。

This lower raw material cost has led us to build lower -- or not billed, but now replaced higher cost inventory with lower cost inventory. So that alone, as we go into the second quarter, is going to be about a $40 million lift for the EM, M&M portfolio combined as we go into -- as we have the second quarter. And then again, we have the typical -- the destocking is pretty much finished here at the end of the first quarter. We actually see really good improvement here in March in our order books.

原料成本下降促使我們建立低庫存——或者說沒有開票，但現在用低成本庫存取代了高成本庫存。因此，僅此一項，隨著我們進入第二季度，新興市場、製造和製造產品組合的銷售額將增加約4,000萬美元。而且，我們通常情況下，在第一季末，去庫存工作已經基本完成。實際上，我們在3月的訂單量確實出現了顯著改善。

We see -- we're past Chinese New Year. So we start seeing the lift from that. I mean, to give you an idea, we have seen February, we started the month slow, but we are still seeing orders coming in today for February deliveries. So this is a big deal. Usually at this time in the month, we -- our orders have stopped, and we don't see new orders come in until the next month. But we're still seeing orders for EM, for M&M for February. And our March book, quite frankly has filled up for both the legacy EM and the legacy M&M businesses consistent with the order book that we received in March of 2022.

我們看到──農曆新年已經過去了。所以我們開始看到由此帶來的提振。我的意思是，舉個例子，我們經歷了2月份，雖然月初生意比較慢，但今天我們仍然看到2月份交貨的訂單。所以這很重要。通常每個月這個時候，我們的訂單都會停止，直到下個月才會有新的訂單。但2月我們仍然看到EM和M&M的訂單。坦白說，我們3月的訂單，包括傳統EM和傳統M&M業務，都已經排滿了，與我們2022年3月份收到的訂單一致。

So I think these are all really strong proof points to say we are seeing the demand recovery coming now as we're moving through the end of February and into March. And we expect that build to continue to grow through the second quarter. We are seeing a modest improvement in automotive production. Builds are pretty much flat, but people are not destocking anymore. So we're seeing order patterns restore closer to normal levels for automotive. And this is very typical with what we also saw coming out of the end of '21 and into '22.

因此，我認為這些都是非常有力的證據，顯示隨著2月底和3月的臨近，我們正看到需求復甦。我們預計第二季汽車產量將持續成長。我們看到汽車產量略有改善。汽車產量基本上持平，但人們不再去庫存了。因此，我們看到汽車訂單模式正在恢復到接近正常水平。這與我們在21年末和22年期間看到的情況非常相似。

So I think we feel really good about an uplift in EM in the magnitude of $50 million to $100 million as well. And then on top of that, we also will have additional synergies from the M&M acquisition, and we expect another uplift of $10 million to $20 million in synergies in the second quarter of first quarter as well. And like I said, acetyls again, productivity continues. So I think we feel quite comfortable in the guidance that we've provided for Q2 based on everything that we see happening now in terms of raw material, energy pricing and recovery of market as indicated by our order books for March.

因此，我認為我們對新興市場（EM）5000萬至1億美元的成長感到非常滿意。此外，收購M&M也將帶來額外的綜效，我們預期第二季和第一季的綜效將再增加1,000萬至2,000萬美元。正如我之前所說，乙醯基產品的生產效率仍在持續提升。因此，基於我們目前在原材料、能源價格以及市場復甦方面所觀察到的種種情況，我認為我們對第二季度的業績指引感到相當滿意，正如我們3月份的訂單所示。

Got it. No, that's hugely helpful color. And then I guess just as the follow-up, just maybe a quick one on the debt redomiciling. It sounds like you're kind of part of the way there now. I guess, can we think about all of this being done by the first half of the year? Is that the right way to think about it? Are you guys waiting for something in particular to maybe change in the market? Like, I guess, how should we think about that because it does seem like the rates are lower as you're starting to refinance some of this debt out?

明白了。不，這非常有幫助。接下來想問後續問題，關於債務遷移的問題，我想快速問一下。聽起來你現在已經在推進了。我想，我們能不能考慮一下在上半年完成所有這些工作？這樣想對嗎？你們是在等待市場發生一些特別的變化嗎？例如，我想，我們應該怎麼看待這個問題，因為在你開始為部分債務進行再融資的時候，利率似乎確實下降了？

Yes. Thanks, John. I think we're going to be opportunistic here. I think we're looking and making sure we have the right opportunities. I mean, currencies were moving in the right direction. We didn't want to make those changes when the dollar was certainly at its strongest because then as things move certainly, from an absolute debt perspective, it would go against us. So we're going to continue to look for the right opportunities there, and we're certainly targeting to get it done here in the first half. But just depending on some of those movements and where the dollar is at, it may linger into the second -- the early part of the second half.

是的，謝謝，約翰。我認為我們會抓住機會。我們正在尋找並確保我們擁有正確的機會。我的意思是，貨幣正朝著正確的方向發展。我們不想在美元處於強勢時做出這些調整，因為那樣的話，隨著情況的發展，從絕對的債務角度來看，肯定會對我們不利。所以我們會繼續在那裡尋找合適的機會，我們的目標是在上半年完成。但這取決於其中一些走勢以及美元的走勢，這種局面可能會持續到下半年——也就是下半年初期。

Next question is coming from Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Lori, in your prepared comments, you talked about some of the competitiveness on the EM side, I think it was specific to imports from -- or exports from Asia into Europe, et cetera. How do you see that dynamic playing out as the rest of the year unfolds? Is it as simple as China reopens and there's more localized demand and so that takes care of that? Or what are you thinking about at this point on that?

洛里，在您準備好的評論中，您談到了新興市場的競爭力，我認為這具體體現在從亞洲進口或從亞洲出口到歐洲等方面。您認為這種動態將如何在今年剩餘時間內發揮作用？是不是很簡單，只要中國重新開放，本地需求增加，就能解決這個問題？或者您現在對此有何看法？

Yes. Thanks, Ghansham. Yes, look, you're exactly right. I think there's two factors, and we're really starting to see -- early in first quarter, we still had some material moving over from Asia. We expect that will be mostly done in the second quarter. And for the two factors, one that you called out, as we see demand picking up in Asia, there's less incentive to put things on a boat, move it to Europe. But secondly, with these low energy prices that we're seeing and the ability to replace our higher cost inventory with lower cost inventory, that's resulting in better pricing for our European customers.

是的，謝謝，Ghansham。是的，你說得完全正確。我認為有兩個因素，而且我們確實開始看到——在第一季初，我們仍有一些材料從亞洲運過來。我們預計這大部分將在第二季完成。至於這兩個因素，其中一個因素，正如你所提到的，隨著亞洲需求回升，我們把貨物裝船運往歐洲的動力減弱了。其次，由於我們看到能源價格低廉，我們能夠用低成本庫存取代高成本庫存，這為我們的歐洲客戶提供了更優惠的價格。

And so the arbitrage we expect will be closing here at the end of the first quarter and into the second quarter. And so that, I think, really helps restore the supply-demand dynamics. That and of course, we are seeing much higher demand now starting to really seeing demand pick up in Europe here in March, in particular, and we expect that to continue into the second quarter.

因此，我們預計套利將在第一季末和第二季結束。我認為這確實有助於恢復供需動態。當然，我們現在看到需求大幅增加，尤其是在3月份，歐洲的需求開始真正回升，我們預計這種勢頭將持續到第二季​​。

So with higher demand, lower pricing for the customers because of energy and raw material costing and then higher demand in China, making it less attractive to ship across, we think those 3 factors actually combined should resolve the situation in the second quarter.

因此，由於需求增加、能源和原材料成本導致客戶價格下降以及中國需求增加，導致跨港口運輸的吸引力降低，我們認為這三個因素實際上結合起來應該可以解決第二季度的情況。

Okay. Great. And then in terms of the sort of the macroeconomic construct. So China, you touched on in terms of momentum, just given the sequence movements there. Europe, you just touched on that as well. What about North America as an offset as it relates to a slowdown sequentially? How do you see that evolving in '23?

好的。太好了。然後就宏觀經濟結構而言。您剛才提到了中國經濟的動量，考慮到那裡的連續波動。您剛才也提到了歐洲。那麼，北美作為抵銷因素，相對於經濟連續放緩的影響又是如何呢？您認為2023年北美經濟將如何發展？

Yes. So I would say North America has been a bit sluggish in the first quarter so far. We have seen more recovery in Europe as we go into March than we have so far in North America. But we don't have any reason to think North America also isn't going to get there in the second quarter. I mean auto builds are strong. We see signs that the destocking is over. Again, natural gas pricing in the U.S. and raw material pricing should expect North America to come back strongly as well.

是的。所以我認為北美第一季到目前為止有點疲軟。進入3月份，我們看到歐洲的復甦比北美迄今的復甦還要快。但我們沒有理由認為北美在第二季不會達到相同的水平。我的意思是，汽車生產強勁。我們看到去庫存化已經結束的跡象。同樣，美國的天然氣價格和原物料價格也應該預期北美也將強勁復甦。

Our next question is coming from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Can you tell us what the EBITDA of the M&M business was in 2022? And in the old days, I think you guys thought it was $900 million in EBITDA. And plainly, it's operating at a much, much lower level. Can you diagnose what happened that is are these structural problems or raw material problems? And how much of the nylon is sold at monthly contract prices right now of the M&M business?

您能告訴我們M&M業務2022年的息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）是多少嗎？以前，我想你們以為EBITDA是9億美元。現在顯然營運水準要低得多。您能分析一下發生了什麼事嗎？是結構性問題還是原料問題？目前M&M業務有多少尼龍是以月合約價銷售的？

Yes. So Jeff, in 2022, we had expected, back at the time of the purchase, we expected 2022 to come in at about $500 million of EBITDA. Obviously, with the year-end challenges in M&M, that number was a little bit lower than that. I think we had thought originally that in 2022, they'd be at $800 million. That's been a more typical number for M&M. We believe we could grow that to $900 million. Now we're saying $700 million for next year. If you look at what happened in 2022, I think there was a number of factors. First is with a take-or-pay contract that they had for raw materials, although they saw weakening demand, they continued to produce, and that led to a lot of inventory, and that's going to tie into what I'm going to say about fourth quarter.

是的。傑夫，在收購M&M時，我們預計2022年的EBITDA約為5億美元。顯然，由於M&M面臨年底挑戰，這個數字略低於這個數字。我們最初預計2022年的EBITDA將達到8億美元。這對M&M來說是一個比較典型的數字。我們相信我們可以將這個數字提高到9億美元。現在我們預計明年是7億美元。如果你回顧2022年的情況，我認為有很多因素。首先是他們簽訂了「照付不議」的原材料合同，儘管需求減弱，但他們仍在繼續生產，這導致了大量庫存，這與我將要談論的第四季度情況有關。

Raw materials were fairly high for the year, compressing margin for nylon for the M&M assets as well. But we saw a lot of demand destruction. And we saw it especially in Asia, we saw it a lot on standard grades. And I think as we talked about last quarter, what we saw was a desire to maintain margin in M&M, but as a result, they lost a significant volume on standard grades by trying to hold prices when other prices were coming down, so volume loss.

今年原物料價格相當高，也壓縮了M&M資產的尼龍利潤率。而且我們看到需求大幅下降，尤其是在亞洲，尤其是在標準等級產品上。我想，正如我們上個季度討論的那樣，我們看到的是M&M希望維持利潤率，但結果，在其他產品價格下跌時，他們為了維持價格，導致標準等級產品銷量大幅下降，所以銷量有所損失。

At the same time, they weren't raising prices on premium grades, which they could have been doing with raw material pricing going up. And these are things that we've had to work on. So we've really been working on pricing over the last 3 months trying to drive more volume and standard grades, trying to raise pricing in other grades. We've really been working the product pipeline. We've been working cross-selling.

同時，他們沒有提高優質產品的價格，而原物料價格上漲本來是可以提高的。這些都是我們必須努力解決的問題。所以，在過去三個月裡，我們一直在努力提高價格，努力提高產量和標準品級產品的產量，並努力提高其他品級產品的價格。我們也一直在努力完善產品線，進行交叉銷售。

We really -- the team has been doing a great job working all of these things to really drive back to where we believe we should be at that $800 million EBITDA run rate by the end of 2023. Obviously, these things take a few quarters to get going. But we do think we'll be back at that maybe kind of historical level DuPont had of $800 million by the -- again, by the end of 2023.

我們團隊在所有這些方面都做得非常出色，最終將EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）推回到我們認為的2023年底8億美元的水平。當然，這些目標需要幾個季度才能實現。但我們確實認為，到2023年底，我們的EBITDA或許能回到杜邦8億美元的那種歷史水準。

In terms of contracts, I'm not really sure, Jeff, to tell you truth in terms of what percentage of the M&M contracts are monthly versus 3 months or 6 months or something longer.

就合約而言，傑夫，說實話，我不太確定 M&M 合約中有多少比例是按月簽訂的，有多少比例是按 3 個月、6 個月或更長時間簽訂的。

Right. So in terms of getting the $700 million in EBITDA this year, you'd have to average, I don't know, $200 million or so for the next -- for the second, third and fourth quarters. How does the profitability lift from $80 million to $90 million to that $200 million level? How do you accomplish that? Especially because when you read about Nylon, 66, the general commentary from consultants is that there's overcapacity and margin pressure is the background getting tougher, but it's your own innovation or ways to change the business that's improving it? What are these dynamics that are lifting it in an adverse environment -- if the environment is adverse?

對。所以，要實現今年7億美元的EBITDA，你們接下來的──第二、三、四季──平均需要達到2億美元左右。獲利能力如何從8000萬美元、9000萬美元提升到2億美元？你們是如何做到的？尤其是當你讀到關於尼龍66的文章時，諮詢顧問們普遍認為產能過剩，利潤率壓力加大，背景越來越嚴峻，但你們自身的創新或業務轉型正在改善盈利狀況？在不利的環境下——如果環境不利——這些推動獲利的動力是什麼？

Yes. So look, a big piece of it is synergy capture. If you look at our outlook now, which is at the upper end of the $100 million to $135 million range for synergies. We've achieved about $10 million of that. We think we'll get about $10 million of that in the first quarter. That leaves $120 million for 3 million more quarters. So that's about a $40 million per quarter average uplift. Now obviously, it's a little bit more skewed towards the back end, but let's think about average for the next 3 quarters. So it's about $40 million right there from synergy uplift. That gets you to the kind of $120 million to $130 million range.

是的。所以，其中很大一部分是協同效應。如果你看看我們現在的預期，綜效的上限在1億到1.35億美元之間。我們已經實現了大約1000萬美元。我們認為第一季也能實現其中的1000萬美元。剩下的1.2億美元，在接下來的300萬個季度都能實現。所以平均每季大約能增加4000萬美元。當然，後期的增幅會更大一些，但讓我們看看接下來三個季度的平均增幅。所以，綜效帶來的增幅大約是4000萬美元。這樣一來，你的收入就達到了1.2億到1.3億美元的水準。

And then we are getting volume recovery. As I said, our March order book is now for M&M basically where it was in March of '22 for M&M. And that was still -- the first part of the year was better for M&M. So we have gotten some volume recovery in -- from Vital in particular and in Asia. Again, auto builds are very consistent, and they're not still back to 2019 levels, but they're consistent. And so we think with volume recovery, we have been pushing through pricing on differentiated products, right?

然後，我們的銷量正在回升。正如我所說，我們3月份M&M的訂單量基本上與2022年3月持平。而且，今年上半年M&M的銷售表現較好。所以我們的銷量有所回升，尤其是來自Vital和亞洲的銷量。再說一次，汽車產量非常穩定，雖然還沒有恢復到2019年的水平，但也比較穩定。因此，我們認為，隨著銷售量的回升，我們一直在推動差異化產品的定價，對嗎？

So if you look at all of those things, if you look at productivity as well, not just synergy, but regular productivity at our M&M plant, we expect to probably get another, I don't know, $40 million, $50 million from that this year. So if you look at all those things and start adding up those volumes and the recovery, M&M was affected in fourth quarter and early part of first quarter with the very same factors we were, right, with the same destocking, with the same seasonality and slowdown -- and we are seeing them recover from that as well, again, in March and as we move forward into second quarter. .

所以，如果你把所有這些因素都考慮進去，再看看生產力，不僅僅是協同效應，還有我們M&M工廠的常規生產力，我們預計今年可能會再獲得4000萬美元或5000萬美元的收益。所以，如果你把所有這些因素都考慮進去，把產量和復甦情況加起來，你會發現M&M在第四季度和第一季初受到的影響和我們之前完全一樣，都是去庫存、季節性因素和經濟放緩——而且我們看到它們在3月份以及進入第二季度後也開始復蘇。

Our next question is coming from Josh Spector from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

I guess, first, I wanted to ask on the Taste JV. Can you talk about how much cash you'll be getting into from that combination? A bit confused by the comments in the release about 0.7x leverage reduction, 12 months post close, if that's related with that or not? It seems like a big number, if it is. So can you clarify?

首先，我想問一下關於Taste JV的問題。您能談談合併後您將獲得多少現金嗎？新聞稿中提到了交易完成後12個月內槓桿率降低0.7倍，我有點困惑，這和合併後的情況是否相關？如果相關的話，這似乎是一個很大的數字。您能解釋一下嗎？

Yes, absolutely. So we expect to net $400 million to $450 million that we can apply towards debt reduction from the Food Ingredients from deal. We think -- I have to say we're really excited about this deal. We're really excited about the JV structure that we've agreed to with Mitsui. If I back up a bit, we also, at the same time, announced the extension of our joint venture for the Fairway Methanol joint venture. This has been a great joint venture for us. Mitsui has proven to be a really great partner.

是的，絕對沒錯。因此，我們預期食品配料交易將帶來4億至4.5億美元的淨收益，可用於減少債務。我們必須說，我們對這筆交易感到非常興奮。我們對與三井物產達成的合資結構感到非常興奮。如果我稍微回顧一下，我們同時宣布將Fairway甲醇合資企業的合資期限延長。這對我們來說是一個非常棒的合資企業。事實證明，三井物產是個非常優秀的合作夥伴。

And I think it's been really financially beneficial for both companies as well as strategically beneficial. And we see Food Ingredients being in addition to that strong relationship that we built with them through the years. This is really what we were looking for. We've looked at this product for some time and thought it's not necessarily a core piece of our portfolio, but it is a core piece of our operations in Frankfurt. And so by doing a joint venture, we think, one, we'll really benefit from the expertise that Mitsui has in food and nutrition and their ability to market and help us on that end. We think they will also benefit from us continuing to be able to integrate into our acetyl chain. We provide acetic acid and crotonaldehyde into the -- now into the Fairway joint venture. And we'll continue to benefit from the strong partnership that we have as well as the manufacturing synergies because we will continue to operate the joint venture, and it is very embedded into our Frankfurt operations.

我認為這對兩家公司都帶來了巨大的經濟效益和戰略效益。我們認為，食品配料業務是我們多年來與他們建立的牢固合作關係的補充。這正是我們一直在尋求的。我們考察這款產品一段時間，認為它不一定是我們產品組合的核心，但它確實是我們在法蘭克福業務的核心。因此，我們認為透過成立合資企業，首先，我們將真正受益於三井在食品和營養方面的專業知識，以及他們在這方面的行銷能力和幫助我們的能力。我們認為，他們也將受益於我們繼續將其整合到我們的乙醯基產品鏈中。我們為Fairway合資企業提供乙酸和巴豆醛。我們將繼續受益於我們之間的牢固合作夥伴關係以及製造協同效應，因為我們將繼續經營合資企業，並且它與我們在法蘭克福的業務緊密相關。

And it allows both of us to participate in growth in what we think will be -- continue to be a high-growth market for Food Ingredients, store base and sweeteners as -- especially as one of the few, if maybe only Western company providing sweeteners anyway of this type, we see a lot of positive movement in terms of volumes, demand and pricing going forward.

這讓我們雙方都能參與到我們認為將會繼續高成長的食品配料、商店基礎和甜味劑市場的成長中來——尤其是作為少數幾家（也許是唯一一家）提供此類甜味劑的西方公司之一，我們看到未來在產量、需求和定價方面將出現很多積極的變化。

So again, we're really excited about it. And just to reiterate, to answer your question, we do expect to be able to pay off another $400 million to $450 million of debt as a result of this joint venture.

所以，我們對此感到非常興奮。為了回答你的問題，我再次重申一下，我們預計透過這項合資，我們能夠再償還4億至4.5億美元的債務。

Yes. And then, Josh, with regards to the covenants, the way our covenants are structured is gain on sale of assets is included in EBITDA. And so because this has a very low book basis, and while it's an efficient transaction, that $450 million will be largely gained. So you get the gain that goes into the EBITDA piece, using then the cash proceeds to pay down debt at the same time. And there's a partial offset, obviously, in EBITDA from the 70% that would go to Mitsui. But that math then works out to be because it's in EBITDA, about a 0.7% reduction for the debt covenant purposes.

是的。 Josh，關於契約，我們契約的架構是將資產出售收益計入EBITDA。由於這筆交易的帳面基礎很低，而且交易效率很高，所以這4.5億美元大部分是收益。這樣，你就得到了計入EBITDA的收益，然後用現金收益同時償還債務。顯然，EBITDA中會部分抵銷原本要支付給三井的70%的收益。但考慮到債務契約的計算方式，由於這筆收益已計入EBITDA，所以最終的計算結果是減少了約0.7%。

Okay. I appreciate that. And maybe just one clarification there. Is that gain, are you going to exclude that from your adjusted EBITDA? And that's in the -- I guess, the debt accounted for EBITDA? And in your comments about free cash flow, you reiterated the $1 billion plus. Can you just give us an idea of what the core free cash flow you're expecting at this point, some of the movements between working capital, restructuring, et cetera?

好的，非常感謝。我只想澄清一點。這筆收益，你會把它從調整後的EBITDA中剔除嗎？而且，這筆債務也算在EBITDA裡了。在您關於自由現金流的評論中，您重申了10億美元以上。您能否簡單介紹一下您目前預期的核心自由現金流，以及營運資本、重組等之間的一些變動？

Yes. So for adjusted EPS, we will go ahead and exclude that gain as we do have past transactions. And then on free cash flow, we had previously said $1.5 billion of free cash flow, which included about a $200 million improvement overall in working capital. If we see that same $200 million improvement in working capital and we saw inventories move up a little bit just with the lower demand in the fourth quarter, then we would see free cash flow likely a little lower than that $ 1.5 billion just because of the lower earnings that we have.

是的。因此，對於調整後的每股盈餘，我們將繼續剔除該收益，因為我們確實存在過往交易。然後，關於自由現金流，我們之前曾提到15億美元的自由現金流，其中包括約2億美元的營運資本整體改善。如果我們看到相同的2億美元營運資本改善，並且由於第四季度需求下降導致庫存略有增加，那麼由於我們的利潤下降，我們預計自由現金流可能會略低於15億美元。

So we're still working through kind of exactly how the working capital will play out this year. But if we see something in that range, we would expect to be a little bit lighter than the $1.5 billion.

所以我們仍在研究今年營運資金的具體使用情況。如果情況確實如此，我們預計實際資金會比15億美元略少。

Next question is coming from Michael Leithead from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的邁克爾萊特黑德 (Michael Leithead)。

First question on pension. Your $12 to $13 a share EPS guide, I believe, includes $100 million hit year-over-year on pension. When you talked last quarter about $13 to $14 a share, how much pension were you -- impact were you expecting at that time?

第一個問題是關於退休金的。我相信，您每股12到13美元的每股盈餘預期，已經包含了1億美元的退休金年比損失。您上個季度談到每股13到14美元時，您當時預計退休金會受到多大影響？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. So I'm actually going to kind of put some of the other buckets in here that change from our previous $13 to $14 guidance. D&A actually came in about $75 million better than we expected, but it was eaten up by a pretty good chunk by that pension. So kind of approach that amount. It's a little lower than that $75 million, but it was approaching that. And so I think when you kind of largely neutral those 2 things together, but it was in that range.

是的。謝謝，麥克。所以我實際上會把其他一些預算調整到我們之前1300萬到1400萬美元的指導值。折舊及攤銷後的實際收入比我們預期高出約7,500萬美元，但這筆退休金佔了很大一部分。所以差不多接近這個數字。實際收入略低於7500萬美元，但也接近這個數字。所以我認為，如果把這兩件事放在一起，大致上保持中性，實際收入應該在這個範圍內。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just more of a segmentation or clarification question, but it seems like M&M EBITDA, if I'm reading correctly, is sort of allocated between earnings and EM and from centralized or other costs and other. So if you do deliver, say, $725 million of EBITDA from the M&M business this year, is it correct to interpret that we'll actually see it reported at something like $825 million or so higher in EM EBITDA, but also, I don't know, $100 million or so higher other costs to offset that. Is that the correct interpretation?

明白了。好的。這很有幫助。然後，也許這只是一個細分或澄清問題，但如果我理解正確的話，M&M 的 EBITDA 似乎是在收益、新興市場 (EM) 以及集中成本或其他成本和其他成本之間分配的。所以，如果今年 M&M 業務的 EBITDA 確實達到了 7.25 億美元，那麼我們是否可以這樣理解：我們實際上會看到新興市場 EBITDA 比預期高出 8.25 億美元左右，但同時，我不知道，還有 1 億美元左右的其他成本來抵消這部分支出？這樣理解正確嗎？

Yes. I think that's right, Mike. It's certainly in that range. I mean, at the end of the day, we need to get no matter what bucket it's falling in, we need to go deliver the EBITDA over time that we said this business would deliver. So it is about getting the base business back up into those ranges that we had originally set at the time of the deal in that $800 million EBITDA, including the other costs in there and then driving synergies on top of that.

是的。我認為沒錯，麥克。肯定在這個範圍內。我的意思是，最終，無論它落入哪個類別，我們都需要隨著時間的推移，實現我們承諾的EBITDA。所以，關鍵在於將基礎業務的EBITDA（包括其中的其他成本）恢復到我們最初在交易時設定的8億美元EBITDA範圍內，然後在此基礎上實現協同效應。

So this year with where demand is at, given some of the higher cost inventory that had to be worked off at the beginning of the year, it's going to be a little bit lower. But then building that back and then putting synergies on top of that is exactly what Tom Kelly and the team are focused on.

因此，考慮到今年的需求狀況，考慮到年初必須消化掉的一些高成本庫存，需求會略有下降。但之後，恢復需求並在此基礎上實現協同效應正是湯姆凱利和團隊的重點。

Next question is coming from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Just a quick clarification around the subject matter of the prior question. For M&M in the fourth quarter, you had guided to $50 million to $60 million of EBITDA. And then there are kind of 2 numbers discussed in the prepared remarks, one is $56 million, one is $39 million, which is the actual apples-to-apples comparison, the $39 million or the $56 million?

關於上一個問題，我只想簡單澄清一下。對於M&M第四季的EBITDA，您預計為5000萬至6000萬美元。在準備好的評論中討論了兩個數字，一個是5600萬美元，一個是3900萬美元，那麼，3900萬美元和5600萬美元哪個才是真正的比較呢？

It's a $39 million.

這是3900萬美元。

It's a $39 million.

這是3900萬美元。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Okay. And then if I could ask this is the first quarter I can remember and I don't know how long where your volume in automotive was below build, and that takes us through a variety of good batter and different auto environments. So I just if you have any further color on sort of why that happened, because like I remember other times where things were tough, but your team found a way to -- your innovation or your activations or what have you. So what happened this time that was different?

好的。好的。然後我想問一下，這是我記憶中的第一個季度，我不知道你們汽車業務的產量低於預期有多久了，這讓我們經歷了各種良好的發展階段和不同的汽車環境。所以，請問您能進一步解釋為什麼會發生這種情況嗎？因為我記得以前有些時候情況很艱難，但你們的團隊找到了方法──你們的創新、你們的行動等等。那麼，這次發生了什麼不同的事情呢？

So actually, Vincent, fourth quarter of '21, was exactly like this. We had the same issue. We were lower than builds because of destocking. And I think there's a number of things that happened. I mean people hit the end of the year. They want to make working capital numbers. So they destock at the end of the year, for a year in inventory control. Prices have been coming down because raws are down and natural gas was falling. So that made people more confident in pricing going forward. So they believe prices going forward are less than they are now.

事實上，Vincent，2021年第四季的情況就是這樣。我們也遇到了同樣的問題。由於去庫存，我們的產量低於建設量。我認為有很多因素導致了這種情況。我的意思是，人們到了年底，想要增加營運資本。所以他們在年底去庫存，以控制庫存。由於原物料價格下跌和天然氣價格下跌，價格一直在下降。這讓人們對未來的定價更有​​信心。所以他們相信未來的價格會低於現在。

And so they choose to draw down their inventory in anticipation of lower prices. I think the supply chain issues have been largely resolved around the world. And so people are more confident about being able to buy material. So why we saw a lot of build of stock in 2022 because people were worried about getting resin. I think we see, going forward, people feel the supply chain issues are largely resolved.

因此，他們選擇減少庫存，以應對價格下跌。我認為全球的供應鏈問題已基本解決。因此，人們對購買材料更有信心。這就是為什麼我們在2022年看到大量庫存積壓，因為人們擔心樹脂供應不足。我認為，展望未來，人們會覺得供應鏈問題基本上已解決。

So the dynamic is actually very similar at the end of 2022 as it was at the end of 2021. I would say a little bit what's different is usually the fourth quarter as a magnitude was a little bit with more in 2022, I would say, primarily because of Asia. And usually, in Asia, we have a pretty good fourth quarter in advance of Chinese New Year. But this year, because of the resurgence of COVID in Asia, things were quite slow in Asia in fourth quarter as well.

所以，2022年底的動態其實與2021年底非常相似。我想說的是，略有不同的是，通常第四季的增幅會略大一些，2022年的增幅更大，我想說，這主要是因為亞洲。通常情況下，在亞洲，農曆新年前第四季的業績會相當不錯。但今年，由於新冠疫情在亞洲捲土重來，亞洲第四季的業績也相當緩慢。

And so I'd say the dynamic was a little bit more pronounced this year. Obviously, Europe was even a little bit slower just on the malaise we've seen in Europe all year. But the dynamic was very similar. And I think the reason for destocking were very similar to what we saw at the end of '21. And again, January started slow. We've seen improvement here as we've gotten through the second half of February and order books are looking consistent with March of 2022 order books for March of '23. So we feel like we've gotten past these dynamics and now are on a more normal trajectory where we will meet or exceed, which is typically what we've done. You're right, we're very good at that. Our teams are very brave about pushing more volumes into the market at high margins. We feel like we're back on that trajectory as of March.

所以我想說，今年的動態更加明顯。顯然，由於我們全年都看到歐洲經濟低迷，歐洲的成長速度甚至略有放緩。但兩者的動態非常相似。我認為去庫存的原因與我們在2021年底看到的情況非常相似。 1月的開局同樣緩慢。隨著2月下半月的到來，我們看到了情況的改善，訂單量與2022年3月的訂單量一致。所以我們覺得我們已經擺脫了這些動態，現在正處於更正常的軌道上，我們將達到或超過預期，這也是我們通常的做法。你說得對，我們在這方面非常擅長。我們的團隊非常勇於以高利潤率向市場推出更多產品。我們感覺從3月開始，我們已經回到了正常的軌道上。

Next question is coming from Michael Sison from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可·西森。

If I did the math for '23 for adjusted EBIT for EM, it looks like you need to be between $12 and $13 and an acetyl chain, $13 to $14. But I guess my question is, if we think about where they could be longer term, maybe '25, '26, where do you think EM should be able to get to? And then if the $13 to $14 is the new foundational, what would the mid-cycle Acetyl Chain potential be a couple of years out?

如果我計算2023年新興市場的調整後息稅前利潤（EBIT），看起來你需要在12到13美元之間，而乙醯基鏈則需要在13到14美元之間。但我的問題是，如果我們考慮它們的長期發展方向，例如2025年、2026年，你認為新興市場應該能達到什麼水準？如果13到14美元是新的基石，那麼幾年後乙醯基鏈的中期週期潛力會是多少？

Yes. That's a lot of questions. I'll roll into one, mike. Let me see if I can parse that apart. So if we look at '23, there's a lot of ways we can get to the $12 to $13, and there's a lot of things that could happen in terms of energy pricing and everything else. I would think of it as going forward, we -- including '23, we expect EM and acetyls to contribute roughly evenly for the next few years. This year, it might be a little stronger on acetyls than EM as we work through kind of the restoration of M&M based earnings and start to capture synergies.

是的。問題很多。麥克，我先來一一分析一下。我看看能不能分析清楚。展望2023年，有很多方法可以達到12到13美元的水平，而且能源定價和其他方面都可能發生很多變化。我認為，展望未來，包括2023年在內，我們預期新興市場和乙醯基產品在未來幾年的貢獻將大致均衡。今年，乙醯基產品的表現可能會略強於新興市場，因為我們正在努力恢復基於M&M的獲利，並開始實現協同效應。

But I would say for the next several years, I would consider them roughly equal because we also have the Clear Lake project coming on this year, which is going to add another $100 million to acetyls. We have BAM expansions and other things coming on. So I think that's a good starting place. If we look at a foundational level of earnings, what I would say is today, we think it's about $1 billion to $1.1 billion. That was before Tow. With Tow it's going to be at or above kind of the $250 million that we called out at the time of the Investor Day in '21. So that kind of puts you in that $125 million to $135 million range, which is pretty consistent with the numbers you saw. But then again, we'll add million $100 million on a full year basis for Clear Lake.

但我想說，就未來幾年而言，我認為它們的獲利水準大致相當，因為我們今年還有Clear Lake計畫即將啟動，這將為乙醯基業務再增加1億美元。我們還有BAM擴建和其他項目即將啟動。所以我認為這是一個很好的起點。如果我們看一下基礎獲利水平，我認為今天我們的獲利水平大約在10億到11億美元之間。這還是在Tow計畫啟動之前。加上Tow項目，我們的獲利水準將達到或超過我們在2021年投資者日時宣布的2.5億美元。所以，這相當於在1.25億到1.35億美元之間，這與你看到的數字非常一致。不過，我們全年將為Clear Lake計畫增加1億美元。

But that is, again, the foundational level of earnings. So we're still operating at very high-capacity utilization in acetyls, despite the softness, despite everything else, even in the fourth quarter, our utilization was 70% in China, but 90% global basis. That's still pretty high. And that's I think where we're going to see maybe a little more volatility in acetyls as the market is going to react more quickly to outages due to turnaround or unplanned outages or movements in raw material pricing. So I can't really say what I think the mid-range is, but I would just say there's definitely -- we've seen in acetyls, we can see a pretty sharp spike up in a very short period of time as the market reacts to short and medium-term changes.

但這又是獲利的基礎水準。因此，儘管市場疲軟，儘管其他因素影響，我們的乙醯基產能利用率仍然非常高。即使在第四季度，我們在中國市場的利用率也只有70%，而全球利用率高達90%。這仍然相當高。我認為，乙醯基的波動性可能會增強，因為市場對因週轉、計劃外停產或原材料價格波動造成的停產反應會更快。因此，我無法準確預測乙醯基的中期波動範圍，但我可以肯定地說——我們已經看到，隨著市場對短期和中期變化的反應，乙醯基的價格在很短的時間內會大幅上漲。

Next question is coming from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Lori, obviously, in the prepared remarks, a lot of commentary around destocking, restocking and the like. I was hoping you could give us some historical context as you look at your portfolio. In terms of destocking, historically, how long you have your destocking cycles lasted? What did the restock look like once the destocking was over and the like? I'm just trying to get some sort of perspective in terms of where inventory levels are right now, what the bounce back could look like and the like?

洛里，顯然，在準備好的發言中，有很多關於去庫存、補庫存之類的評論。我希望你能結合你的投資組合，提供一些歷史背景。說到去庫存，從歷史上看，你的去庫存週期持續了多久？去庫存結束後，補庫存的狀況如何？我只是想了解目前的庫存水平，以及反彈的可能情況等等。

Yes. So I would say, historically, we've seen destocking last kind of a quarter, especially in EM, maybe a little bit less in acetyls because they don't have as much inventory. And I would say -- I wouldn't even say we're necessarily seeing restocking at this point. I would say we're seeing a return to normal levels of demand. Typically, when we see restocking is when prices start to go up and people start getting worried that prices in the future are going to be higher than they are today. So they take the opportunity to build inventory in advance of an anticipated price increase.

是的。所以，我想說，從歷史上看，我們上個季度確實出現了去庫存現象，尤其是在新興市場，乙醯基類產品去庫存的幅度可能略小一些，因為它們的庫存沒有那麼多。而且，我甚至不敢說我們現在一定會看到補貨。我想說的是，我們看到的是需求正在回歸正常水準。通常情況下，當價格開始上漲，人們開始擔心未來的價格會比現在更高時，我們才會看到補貨。所以他們會趁機在預期的價格上漲之前建立庫存。

Again, as I said earlier, I think with where we are today, where raws are down, natural gas is low, the anticipation in the market is that prices are going to go lower or stay low. And so I don't think we'll really see restocking until we see a turn up. But we do see a return to normal levels of demand starting now in March.

再說一遍，正如我之前所說，我認為鑑於目前的情況，原料油價格下跌，天然氣價格低迷，市場預期價格將會走低或維持低位。因此，我認為除非價格回升，否則庫存不會真正恢復。但我們確實看到需求從3月開始恢復正常水準。

Understood. Understood. And as a follow-up, on the Acetyl Chain side, you guys talked about how pricing through the quarter was Chinese pricing at cost curve levels. Yet despite that, you guys, obviously, idled some facilities, yet you generated around 25%, 26% EBITDA margins. So I'm just trying to get a better sense of Celanese's cost curve positioning as it sits right now?

明白了。明白了。接下來，關於乙醯基鏈方面，你們談到了本季的定價是如何反映中國成本曲線的水平。儘管如此，你們顯然閒置了一些設施，但仍然實現了約 25% 到 26% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。所以我只是想更了解一下塞拉尼斯目前的成本曲線定位？

Yes. So I think there's a couple of components to that. I think, in China, specifically, while I believe throughout the end of the fourth quarter and into the beginning of the first quarter, we were at the cost curve in China In terms of the industry, our cost position is a bit better than that. And it has to do with the scale of our operations, the technology that we have and therefore, improved cost bases we have versus the vast majority of the producers in China.

是的。我認為這有幾個因素。具體來說，在中國，我認為在整個第四季末到第一季初，我們的成本曲線都處於低點。但就產業而言，我們的成本狀況比這要好一些。這與我們的業務規模、我們擁有的技術以及因此與中國絕大多數生產商相比，我們擁有的成本基礎有所改善有關。

So we continued even when the rest of the industry was at the cost curve to make even a small amount of margin in China. And then, of course, we're benefited by the fact that we have a very large facility in the U.S. Gulf Coast. So when we saw natural gas prices coming off in -- towards the second half of the fourth quarter and as we've gone into the first quarter with low natural gas prices, that is a big margin uplift for us versus people who are producing out of coal or even crude at these kind of prices, and that opens up windows for us to move material to Europe and other parts of the world out of the Gulf Coast.

因此，即使其他產業的成本曲線已經處於低位，我們仍然堅持在中國生產，即便只是賺取少量利潤。當然，我們也受益於我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸擁有一個非常大的工廠。因此，當我們看到天然氣價格在第四季度下半段回落，而我們進入第一季時天然氣價格處於低位時，相比那些以這種價格生產煤炭甚至原油的企業，這對我們來說是一個很大的利潤提升，也為我們打開了將材料從墨西哥灣沿岸運往歐洲和世界其他地區的機會。

And so I think it is that global optionality that we have, that global footprint as well as the optionality we have to move things up and down the chain that really allow us to continuously deliver high level of margins from what some might consider commodity business. It certainly does not give commodity returns.

所以我認為，正是我們擁有的全球選擇性、全球佈局以及我們在供應鏈上上下下移動的選擇性，才真正讓我們能夠持續從一些人認為的大宗商品業務中獲得高利潤。當然，它帶來的回報並非大宗商品的回報。

Next question is coming from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Lori, do you have a long-term view on the competitiveness of your European assets? And what I mean by that is European VAM capacity was shut down. Is that the marginal capacity that goes in and out with the market, like what Singapore plant used to do in acetic acid? Can you just take a step back and explain to us sort of the marginal capacity in Europe and your plans there?

Lori，您對您在歐洲資產的競爭力有什麼長遠看法嗎？我的意思是，歐洲的VAM產能已經關閉。這些邊際產能是否像新加坡工廠以前的醋酸產能一樣，隨著市場的變化而改變？您能否退一步，向我們解釋一下歐洲的邊際產能以及您在那裡的計劃？

Yes. No, thanks for the question, P.J. Look, maybe to clarify, so VAM going down in Frankfurt wasn't because VAM couldn't make money in Frankfurt. It was just we saw the demand go down so much towards the end of the year. I mean VAM demand in December was down -- or in the fourth quarter was more than 50% off Q3. So, we had a really huge demand destruction in the fourth quarter because of pricing, because of the weather, because of destocking, because of all of those things.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問，P.J. 看來，我得澄清一下，法蘭克福的VAM價格下跌並不是因為VAM在法蘭克福賺不到錢。只是我們看到需求在年底大幅下降。我的意思是，12月份的VAM需求下降了——或者說，第四季的需求比第三季下降了50%以上。所以，由於定價、天氣、去庫存等諸多因素，我們在第四季經歷了巨大的需求破壞。

And so -- but even at that, I mean, we could have run VAM profitably. It is not normally the most expensive VAM production in our network. But because of the high pricing we were seeing in Europe last year, it just made sense because the total capacity for the globe was down, it just made sense that we cut shut down VAM facility that was challenged due to energy pricing and move material from other lower cost energy locations.

所以——但即便如此，我的意思是，我們營運VAM也能獲利。它通常不是我們網路中成本最高的VAM產品。但由於去年歐洲價格高企，全球總產能下降，我們關閉受能源價格影響的VAM設施並從其他能源成本較低的地區轉移材料也是合理的。

But we're starting it up now. I mean, the March order book for VAM in Europe is really the strongest we've seen in 6 months. So now we need IPH. And it makes sense, we're going to be about -- I think that the order book right now is about 85% is what we saw in the third quarter. So it makes sense to start a VAM. We have lower energy prices. So again, Frankfurt returns to not being the highest priced one.

但我們現在就開始了。我的意思是，歐洲3月的VAM訂單量確實是6個月以來最強的。所以現在我們需要IPH。這很合理，我認為目前的訂單量大約相當於第三季的85%。所以啟動VAM是合理的。我們的能源價格較低。所以，法蘭克福再次不再是價格最高的地區。

So again, this is the beauty of a global network. We have the optionality to take units down to skew where we make it based on what is most cost competitive at the time based on where the demand is at the time. And that just happened to be Frankfurt last year, but it could be something different in the next year. But that's why we like having all of this optionality around the globe.

再次強調，這就是全球網路的魅力所在。我們可以根據當時的需求，根據最具成本競爭力的地區，靈活地減少生產單位數量，調整生產地點。去年恰好是在法蘭克福，但明年可能會有所不同。但這正是我們喜歡在全球範圍內擁有這種靈活選擇的原因。

Great. And then on M&M, it seems like it was really under managed in the last 1 year of ownership. Do most of M&M's issues are residing more on nylon area? And can you upgrade the M&M portfolio? Because I think you had more EV exposure than them. And so is there a natural upgrade there?

太好了。然後說到M&M，在我持有該公司的最後一年裡，它似乎管理得確實不夠。 M&M的問題主要集中在尼龍領域嗎？能升級一下M&M的投資組合嗎？因為我覺得您在電動車領域的投資比他們多。那麼，這方面是否有一個自然的升級？

Yes. So I would say if you look at the portfolio from M&M, certainly, nylon was the most challenged. I think elastomers was more robust. And even within the nylon portfolio, high-temperature nylons and some others didn't see the impact. It was more, I would say, in and the PA66 line. And as we've called out before, I mean, there were many issues around decisions being made around pricing, both positive and negative, maintaining volume in standard grades and those sorts of things.

是的。所以，我想說，如果你看看M&M的產品組合，尼龍無疑是面臨的最大挑戰。我認為彈性體比較耐用。即使在尼龍產品組合中，高溫尼龍和其他一些產品也沒有受到影響。我想說，影響更大的是PA66產品線。正如我們之前提到的，在定價決策方面存在著許多問題，包括正面和負面因素，以及維持標準等級產量等方面的問題。

And there were very high raw material costs and a take-or-pay contract that requires them to take it. So I think there's just a lot that went into that underperformance in 2022. But the good news is these are things that are fixable. And this is what Tom and his team have been working very hard on in the last 3 months is moving the pricing, getting the inventory down in the fourth quarter, which certainly hurt us in the fourth quarter but will help us now as we go forward in 2023 and are able to sell lower cost basis inventory, more in line with pricing. So I think the good news is going forward, this is all stuff that is fixable, and we are working rapidly to do so.

原料成本非常高，而且簽訂了「照付不議」合同，要求他們照付不議。所以我認為2022年業績不佳有很多原因。但好消息是，這些問題是可以解決的。湯姆和他的團隊在過去三個月裡一直在努力調整價格，在第四季度降低庫存，這當然對我們在第四季度造成了影響，但現在會對我們有所幫助，因為我們可以在2023年繼續前進，能夠以更符合定價的方式銷售成本更低的庫存。所以我認為好消息是，所有這些都是可以解決的，我們正在迅速採取行動。

Yes. The earnings power of this combined portfolio hasn't changed. from when we announced the deal a year ago. If anything, I think it's -- we're even more convicted around that going forward. There is near-term challenges. And we've been, over the last several quarters, very clear about the disappointment and the performance. And it is requiring a big lift in the near term, but the long-term earnings power of these combined portfolios and combined with the Acetyl Chain, as you look out 3 to 4 years, is very substantial.

是的。與我們一年前宣布交易時相比，這個組合投資組合的獲利能力並沒有改變。如果有什麼變化的話，我認為——我們對未來的獲利能力更加堅定了。短期內確實存在挑戰。過去幾個季度，我們非常清楚業績表現和令人失望的方面。短期內需要大幅提升，但從長遠來看，這些組合投資組合以及與乙醯基鏈相結合的長期獲利能力，在未來3到4年內，將非常可觀。

Next question is coming from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Lori, can you elaborate on the 1.3 million ton expansion of acetyl capacity at Clear Lake. What are you baking into your numbers with regard to timing of the start-up and operating rate given the current market conditions? And then any thoughts on how you would see that earnings trajectory evolving through this year and into 2024 would be helpful?

Lori，您能詳細談談Clear Lake 130萬噸乙醯產能的擴張計畫嗎？考慮到目前的市場狀況，您在估算投產時間和開工率時考慮了哪些因素？您認為今年乃至2024年的獲利軌跡將如何發展？

Yes. So the project itself is going well. We are still anticipating an on-time, on-budget startup mid this year. So we expect to have it running for, let's just call it, roughly half of the year. At the time we did the project, we called out while we have the ability to run 1.3 million tons additional, we really did it as a productivity project. So savings that we get from being able to move volumes directly to Europe, savings that we get from catalyst savings, energy savings, et cetera.

是的。所以專案本身進展順利。我們仍預計今年年中能按時、按預算啟動。所以我們預計它能運行大約半年。在做這個專案的時候，我們說雖然我們有能力額外生產130萬噸，但我們實際上是把它當作一個生產力專案來做的。也就是說，我們能夠將貨物直接運往歐洲，節省了成本，節省了催化劑，節省了能源，等等。

So of that $100 million a year credit, we probably will only see about $25 million of that this year. because we have start-up costs, we have ramp-up time, all that sort of thing. So I'd expect to see about $25 million of that credit this year. And then next year, we should be at the full $100 million. Now having said that, to the extent that demand deliver -- continues to grow robustly and energy prices continue to be so favorable on the Gulf Coast, it will make sense to try to run the unit for volume as well.

所以，每年1億美元的補貼，今年我們可能只能拿到2,500萬美元左右，因為我們有啟動成本、產能提升時間等等。所以我預計今年能拿到2500萬美元左右的補助。明年，我們應該可以拿到全部1億美元了。話雖如此，如果需求繼續強勁增長，而且墨西哥灣沿岸的能源價格持續保持優惠，那麼嘗試批量運行該裝置也是合理的。

What point that will be at? I couldn't say at this point. It's going to depend on demand and raw material and energy economics. But if that were to happen, that clearly is a higher return case for that project than we had with just the base productivity number that was baked in there.

什麼時候會達到這個水準？我現在還不能說。這取決於需求、原材料和能源經濟狀況。但如果真的實現了，那麼該專案的回報顯然會比我們僅基於當時已確定的基本生產力數字的回報更高。

I see. That's helpful. And then secondly, if I may, a couple of financial questions for Scott. Will you comment on your '23 capital expenditure budget? And with regard to the first quarter, what level of interest expense are you baking into your EPS guide?

我明白了。這很有幫助。其次，如果可以的話，我想問史考特幾個財務方面的問題。能談談2023年的資本支出預算嗎？關於第一季度，您在每股盈餘指南中納入了多少利息支出？

Yes. So capital, we still expect to be in kind of that $550 million to $600 million range. And that where we land there will really be dependent upon where we see the demand recovery as well as the outlook into the out years and as we continue to really put the combined EM and M&M portfolios together. And then from an interest expense standpoint, we're in that kind of 600 -- again, that $550 million to $600 million range for the year, and we'll have about 1/4 of that here in the first quarter.

是的。資本方面，我們預計仍將在5.5億至6億美元之間。最終目標將取決於我們對需求復甦的預期，以及未來幾年的前景，我們將繼續整合新興市場和新興市場與新興市場及新興市場投資組合。從利息支出的角度來看，我們今年的利息支出預計在6億美元左右——也就是5.5億至6億美元之間，第一季我們將達到其中的四分之一左右。

Next question today is coming from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

今天的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Congrats, Mark Murray, if you're listening. Lori, I wanted to ask about the level of auto builds that you have embedded in the guide for the year and where you think Celanese can perform relative to that level of industry auto builds?

恭喜馬克·默里，如果你在聽的話。洛里，我想問一下，你今年的指南中嵌入的汽車製造水準是怎麼樣的？你認為塞拉尼斯相對於產業汽車製造水準的表現如何？

Yes. So we're assuming our 2023 forecast is basically assumes flat in '23 to the second half of 2022. So that's kind of like at an 85 million range, which really aligns pretty well with the IHS outlook this year, which they're forecasting an increase of 3.6%. That is almost exactly the same number. And that really is assuming U.S. and Europe, about 5% up; Asia, up about 2%, with China being the weakest point at 1%.

是的。所以我們假設2023年的預測基本上是假設2023年至2022年下半年銷售持平。所以這個數字大概在8,500萬左右，這與IHS今年的預測非常吻合，他們預測銷售量將成長3.6%。這幾乎是完全一樣的數字。而且這其實是假設美國和歐洲成長約5%，亞洲成長約2%，而中國成長最弱，僅1%。

Still I would say we're still about 5% lower than 2019. But we do believe that, that we're pretty consistent with IHS in this. We believe auto builds are going to be constrained by chip availability, not by demand. We think the pent-up demand is still there. And so to the extent chips be more available, I think autos will build other years as we've seen sometimes they're not as available and -- but we're assuming kind of flat to second half 2022.

儘管如此，我認為我們仍然比2019年低了約5%。但我們確實相信，我們與IHS的觀點基本一致。我們認為汽車生產將受到晶片供應量而非需求量的限制。我們認為被壓抑的需求仍然存在。因此，如果晶片供應量增加，我認為汽車生產量會在其他年份繼續增長，因為我們已經看到，有時晶片供應量會有所下降——但我們預計到2022年下半年將持平。

I would say our -- we would expect our contribution ourselves into auto to be maybe a couple of percent above that. And that's based upon a few things. One is the locations where we're stronger. So historically, we've been stronger in the U.S. and EU. Now with M&M, they've always been a bit stronger in Asia. But even having said that, I think we think we'd be a few percent above that. The other thing is the presence that we have in electric vehicles. I mean, we -- over 10% of our sales by volume go into electric vehicles from the Heritage EM portfolio. And we continue to see that EVs are growing at a faster rate than ICE if you look at the forecast going forward. So based on that, I would assume a couple of percent kind of low single-digit percent that we would expect to be over the build rate in terms of our auto growth.

我想說的是，我們預期自己在汽車領域的貢獻可能會比這個數字高出幾個百分點。這基於幾個因素。首先是我們實力較強的地區。從歷史上看，我們在美國和歐盟的市場表現更強勁。現在，M&M在亞洲的市場表現也一直略強一些。但即便如此，我認為我們的貢獻仍會比這個數字高出幾個百分點。其次是我們在電動車領域的佈局。我的意思是，我們超過10%的銷售量來自Heritage EM產品組合中的電動車。而且，如果你看一下未來的預測，我們會發現電動車的成長速度仍然快於內燃機汽車。因此，基於此，我預期汽車產業的成長率將比成長速度高出幾個百分點，或者說是低個位數百分比。

Got you. And I know -- maybe a question for Scott. I know that the comment was the M&M inventory levels were really high and elevated given the take-or-pay contracts ended the year at $2.8 billion in terms of your inventories. How should we think about that -- the impact of maybe inventory reduction on working capital in '23?

明白了。我知道——也許我想問斯科特一個問題。我知道之前的評論是，考慮到照付不議合約到年底的庫存總額高達28億美元，M&M的庫存水準確實很高。我們該如何看待這個問題──庫存減少對23年營運資本的影響？

Yes. As I said earlier, Frank, on the free cash flow question, we'd like to see at least a $200 million reduction, which will largely come out of inventory as we work through the year. I mean, that's going to largely be dependent on a few things: one, being able to bring absolute volumes down; two, depending on what were to transpire with raw materials. And I think with energy and gas already coming down, that will give us some wind at our back. But we really would like to see the volumetric reduction kind of contribute to that $200 million in total and then any pricing reduction be on top of that. So we're kind of hoping and planning for that $200 million reduction right now.

是的。弗蘭克，正如我之前所說，關於自由現金流的問題，我們希望至少減少2億美元，這主要將透過我們全年的庫存削減來實現。我的意思是，這主要取決於幾個因素：第一，能夠降低絕對產量；第二，取決於原材料的供應情況。我認為，鑑於能源和天然氣價格已經下降，這將為我們帶來一些支持。但我們真正希望的是產量的減少能夠對這2億美元的總額有所貢獻，之後任何價格的降低都會在此基礎上。所以我們現在就希望並計劃減少這2億美元。

Your next question today is coming from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America.

今天的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

I know you adjusted term loan covenants, but do you still have to hit the 3x net debt to EBITDA by year-end 2024 that was stipulated by the rating agencies? And look, can I just use consensus EBITDA and hand up for well I might be wrong, But like you gave yourself some cumulative cash flow generation, which over the next 2 years, but that consensus EBITDA puts you like 35, 33. So is there a concern internally about this? And do you start thinking about other asset sales? Is that necessary?

我知道你們調整了定期貸款契約，但你們是否仍需要達到評級機構規定的2024年底淨債務與EBITDA之比的3倍？還有，我能不能直接用市場普遍認可的EBITDA？我可能錯了，但你們設定了一些累積現金流，是在未來兩年內產生的，但市場普遍認可的EBITDA是35%或33%。那麼，你們內部對此是否感到擔憂？你們會考慮出售其他資產嗎？有必要嗎？

Look, I don't think there is a concern internally. As we've said since the time we did the deal, I mean, there are always levers that we can do. I mean from an asset sale standpoint, again, we don't feel we're in a position we have to do an asset sale. I mean we did Food Ingredients because we have the right partner with the structure we wanted that would give us both benefits and allow us both to participate in the growth in that business. And so the timing was right to do that.

嗯，我認為內部沒有擔憂。正如我們自交易以來就一直說的那樣，我們總是有可以利用的手段。我的意思是，從資產出售的角度來看，我們並不認為我們必須出售資產。我們之所以選擇食品配料業務，是因為我們找到了合適的合作夥伴，並且擁有我們想要的架構，能夠讓我們雙方都受益，並共同參與該業務的成長。所以，現在正是出售資產的最佳時機。

And I would say we will continue to be opportunistic with our businesses, both our legacy businesses as well as our acquired businesses. If and when we have the right buyer at what we think is a fair price, of course, we would consider it. But we believe that although this year has started slow, the recovery we expect to see this year, our ability to generate cash from working capital and others that we will be able to meet the expectations of the rating agencies this year as well as next year and into the future. Scott?

我想說，我們將繼續抓住機遇，收購我們的業務，包括我們現有的業務和收購的業務。如果我們找到合適的買家，而且價格合理，我們當然會考慮。但我們相信，儘管今年開局緩慢，但我們預計今年的復甦、我們從營運資金中創造現金的能力以及其他因素，都決定了我們今年、明年以及未來能夠達到評級機構的預期。史考特？

Yes. I mean, look, we viewed this as a near-term challenge that required a near-term solution, and that was to amend the covenant. We're still pushing to get to that 3x levered at the end of 2024. And it really starts with, as Lori talked about, generating cash. Generating cash to pay down debt, lower that interest cost. I talked about the M&M incremental interest of $550 million to $600 million. We have legacy interest of $60 million to $70 million, lower that by paying down debt.

是的。我的意思是，你看，我們認為這是短期挑戰，需要短期解決方案，那就是修改契約。我們仍在努力在2024年底實現3倍槓桿。正如Lori所說，這實際上始於產生現金。產生現金來償還債務，降低利息成本。我之前提到了M&M的增量利息為5.5億至6億美元。我們還有6000萬至7000萬美元的遺留利息，可以透過償還債務來降低。

And then also find ways at which to lower that interest cost through redomiciling some of that debt as we talked about earlier on the call. So it is really just about systematically bringing the debt down through cash generation.

然後，正如我們之前在電話會議上討論的那樣，透過轉移部分債務來降低利息成本。所以，這其實就是透過現金創造來系統性地降低債務。

Okay. I know I appreciate that. And then on the VAM and EVA side. So I know acetic acid is pretty stable from a supply perspective outside of yourself and what you're doing But it sounds a call for like decent VAM and EVA capacity growth over the next 2 years. Does that impact your spreads? I know demand growth there has been pretty good. Does that get absorbed? How do we think about that?

好的。我知道我很感激。然後是關於醋酸乙烯酯（VAM）和醋酸乙烯酯（EVA）方面。我知道，除了您自己和您正在做的事情之外，醋酸從供應角度來看相當穩定。但這聽起來像是在未來兩年內需要大幅增加VAM和EVA的產能。這會影響您的價差嗎？我知道那裡的需求成長相當不錯。這些成長會被吸收嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Yes. So if you look at what's happening, there are some builds going on. So acetic acid, we do expect 1 start-up in 2023, late 2023. In China, we're also expecting a few VAM start-ups between '23 and '24. But if you look at the typical growth that we see for the Acetyl Chain, we need a full plan kind of every other year. So I don't think the rate of growth that we're seeing is inconsistent with the growth in the world. We are still at fairly high utilization.

是的。所以，如果你看看目前的情況，你會發現有些產能正在建設中。例如乙酸，我們預計2023年底會有1個項目投產。在中國，我們也預計在2023年至2024年期間會有幾套VAM投產。但如果你看看乙醯基鏈的典型成長情況，我們每隔一年就需要一個完整的計畫。所以我認為我們所看到的成長率與全球的成長速度並不矛盾。我們的產能利用率仍然相當高。

Again, I think the fact that we are at high utilizations will keep the volatility a bit more. So we'll do as we saw in fourth quarter, you may, during periods of low demand and seasonality, go to the cost curve, but that can recover quite quickly. But I don't see it having a major impact on our margins going forward on kind of a long-term or full year basis.

再次強調，我認為我們目前的高利用率會進一步加劇波動。因此，正如我們在第四季度看到的那樣，在需求低迷和季節性因素的影響下，成本曲線可能會上升，但很快就會恢復。但我認為，從長期或全年來看，這不會對我們未來的利潤率產生重大影響。

Next question is coming from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, in the comments, you mentioned some destocking in the Americas in paints and coatings and construction applications. Can you give a little more color on what you're seeing there and where we are in that process? .

Lori，您在評論中提到美洲地區的油漆塗料和建築應用市場正在經歷一些去庫存現象。您能否詳細介紹一下您觀察到的情況以及我們目前所處的階段？

Yes. So I -- what we typically see seasonality because, obviously, when it's cold and snowy and things people aren't painting outside. And so that's typical. I would say also this year because we're coming off a period of high pricing for many of these materials because of the higher raws and the higher energy we saw during 2022. I think people took the opportunity much like we did in EM, for example, to draw down some of their inventories through the end of the year and get rid of higher cost inventory to make room for lower cost inventory going forward with anticipation of lower energy and raw material costs and pricing.

是的。所以我們通常會看到季節性，因為很明顯，天氣寒冷多雪，人們不會在戶外粉刷。這很正常。我想說今年也是如此，因為我們剛剛度過了許多此類材料價格高漲的時期，這是由於2022年原物料價格上漲和能源成本上升造成的。我認為人們抓住了機會，就像我們在新興市場一樣，在年底前減少部分庫存，清理成本較高的庫存，為未來成本較低的庫存騰出空間，因為他們預期能源和原材料成本及價格會下降。

So I think that's really the dynamic that we saw this year. Again, in the U.S., we haven't really seen the pickup yet as we have, say, in Europe, but I think it will come. There's no kind of structural reason that we think paints, coatings and construction is going to be off in 2023 versus 2022.

所以我認為這確實是我們今年看到的動態。同樣，在美國，我們還沒有像在歐洲那樣真正看到復甦，但我認為它會到來。我們認為，沒有任何結構性原因會導致油漆、塗料和建築業在2023年比2022年下滑。

Understood. And just in acetyls, you referenced a $60 million earnings increase versus the last trough. Can you try to bridge that gap, what's improved in your operations? Because you've always been a good operator in this business, but you seem to have taken a step up since the last couple of years as well.

明白了。您提到乙醯基業務的獲利較上一個低谷成長了6000萬美元。您能否嘗試彌補一下這個差距？您的營運有哪些改進？因為您一直以來都擅長這個行業，但最近幾年似乎也取得了進步。

Yes. Look, I think it's a number of things. We've continued to invest in our acetyl assets, both foundationally, so investing in reliability and quality, energy savings, productivity. So we've continued to improve our cost basis. From that, we've improved our contracts in many of our areas for raw materials for the Acetyl Chain. I think that's probably the primary improvement we've seen in acetyls over the last few years. The operating model we use in acetyls taking advantage of that end-to-end as well as geographic optionality is really strong. It's running really well.

是的。我認為有很多方面。我們持續投資乙醯資產，包括基礎資產，例如可靠性和品質、節能減排和生產力。因此，我們持續改善了成本基礎。在此基礎上，我們在許多領域改進了乙醯鏈原材料的合約。我認為這可能是過去幾年我們在乙醯業務中看到的主要改進。我們在乙醯業務中採用的營運模式充分利用了端到端和地理選擇性，非常有效。目前運作良好。

But I would say it's really the improvement in productivity, the improvement in contracting, as well as some of the minor kind of capacity adds, that capacity creep that we've had across our facilities, which gives us additional optionality and the addition of Elotex, which gives us further optionality down into the chain, which is especially helpful as we move into these kind of slower winter months.

但我想說的是，這實際上是生產率的提高、承包的改善，以及一些小規模的產能增加，即我們設施中出現的產能蠕變，這給了我們額外的選擇權，而 Elotex 的加入，又給了我們進一步的選擇權，這對於我們進入這種較為緩慢的冬季月份來說尤其有幫助。

Kevin, we'll take one more question, please.

凱文，我們再回答一個問題。

Our final question today is coming from Jaideep Pandya from On Field Research.

今天的最後一個問題來自 On Field Research 的 Jaideep Pandya。

Just basically wanted to understand in the context of capacity shutdowns in the upstream side in nylon chain. How do you see yourself with regards to positioning in the value chain? Is this fundamentally more positive for you? Or is it fundamentally more negative for you in this context? .

只是想了解一下尼龍產業鏈上游產能關閉的背景下的情況。您如何看待自己在價值鏈中的定位？這對您來說從根本上是更有利的，還是從根本上更不利的？

Well, prior to the acquisition of M&M, obviously, we were a big buyer of nylon and would have been unhappy to see shutdowns in the upstream because that would lower price. But now that we both polymerize as well as compound nylon, I would say, generally, I would consider this a help for us as it tightens up the amount of nylon being produced and should raise value across the chain.

嗯，在收購M&M之前，我們顯然是尼龍的大買家，我們不希望看到上游工廠停產，因為那會降低價格。但現在我們既生產尼龍聚合產品，也生產尼龍複合產品，總的來說，我認為這對我們有幫助，因為它縮減了尼龍的產量，應該能提高整個產業鏈的價值。

We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。接下來，我想請大家繼續提問或發表結束語。

Thank you. I'd like to thank everyone for calling in today. As always, we're around if you have any follow-up questions. Kevin, please go ahead and close up the call.

謝謝！感謝大家今天的來電。像往常一樣，如果您有任何後續問題，我們隨時歡迎您的提問。凱文，請繼續，結束通話。

That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了，祝您有美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。