塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2022年第三季財報電話會議及網路直播。 （操作員指示）溫馨提示：本次會議正在錄音。現在，我想將電話會議交給投資者關係副總裁Brandon Ayache。謝謝。您可以開始發言了。

Thank you, Daryl. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝，達裡爾。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2022年第三季業績電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁布蘭登‧阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache)。

With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese Corporation distributed its third quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長Lori Ryerkerk和財務長Scott Richardson。塞拉尼斯公司已透過美國商業資訊發布了其第三季財報，並於昨天下午在投資者關係網站上發布了關於本季度的預先準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as the prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC. Because we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll go ahead and open the line directly for your questions.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。今天的演示還將包含前瞻性陳述。請閱讀新聞稿末尾關於前瞻性陳述的警示性措辭以及準備好的評論。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。由於我們昨天發布了準備好的評論，因此我們將直接開放熱線回答您的問題。

Daryl, please go ahead and open the line for questions.

達裡爾，請繼續，開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Our first questions come from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

I guess now that you've owned the M&M assets for a few days here, wondering if you can give us some context on the performance this year from an EBITDA perspective.

我想您現在已經擁有 M&M 資產幾天了，想知道您是否可以從 EBITDA 的角度向我們介紹今年的業績。

Also maybe some historical context given DuPont embedded on corporate and if not the full segment? How has that performed? And then also, when you look at next year, you gave the comments of $800 million to get to that business pre-synergies? What are the major lists that it takes to get there from the current run rate?

另外，考慮到杜邦公司業務（即使不是整個業務部門）的深度，能否提供一些歷史背景？它的表現如何？此外，您之前提到明年要投入8億美元來實現該業務的綜效？從目前的營運速度來看，要實現這一目標需要哪些主要步驟？

Thanks for the question, Josh. That's actually a lot of questions. So let me see if I can navigate all that. So on third quarter performance, I mean, DuPont will be reporting shortly. Obviously, what they report, not apples-to-apples necessarily because it does include Delrin as well. But I think it's fair to say in third quarter, much like the first 2 quarters, M&M is not performing in line with our expectations of the business or even in line with how they performed in 2021.

謝謝你的提問，Josh。問題確實很多，讓我看看能不能全部回答完。關於第三季的業績，杜邦公司很快就會發布財報。當然，他們的報告不一定是同類數據，因為其中也包含Delrin成分。但我認為，可以公平地說，第三季度，就像前兩個季度一樣，M&M的業績表現不符合我們對業務的預期，甚至與2021年的表現也不相符。

And I think you saw that in the numbers we called out for fourth quarter. And I think if you think about fourth quarter, I mean fourth quarter is typically a low quarter for us as well. We do get seasonality in the fourth quarter. We expect DuPont to see the same seasonality. I think we see some of the concerns we've had on DuPont's performance continuing with the M&M asset in the fourth quarter as well. So it's -- again, it's only been 3 days. But I would say, as we've gotten to get a clear view of M&M's performance I think there's a couple of reasons we see for their underperformance this year.

我想大家從我們公佈的第四季數據中也看到了這一點。想想第四季度，你會發現第四季對我們來說通常也是個低迷的季度。第四季確實存在季節性因素。我們預期杜邦也會出現同樣的季節性。我認為，我們對杜邦業績的一些擔憂在第四季也延續到了M&M資產。所以，這才過去三天。但我想說，既然我們已經清楚地了解了M&M的業績，我認為有幾個原因導致他們今年的表現不佳。

So overall poor demand backdrop in Asia and Europe, not dissimilar, I think, in Europe from what we've seen, but I think we've had a little bit more upside in Asia on auto than they have seen. Competitive dynamics, that is really impacting more of the standard business of which we believe they've had a bit more than versus the differentiated business. And I would say also insufficient commercial flexibility to really pivot and respond to the market and the need to do different things in the market maybe as quickly as we have.

因此，亞洲和歐洲整體需求疲軟，我認為歐洲的情況與我們觀察到的情況並無二致，但我認為我們在亞洲汽車市場的優勢比歐洲略大。競爭態勢對標準業務的影響更大，我們認為他們受到的影響比差異化業務更大一些。而且，我認為他們的商業彈性也不足，無法真正調整和回應市場，也需要像我們一樣迅速地在市場上採取不同的行動。

I think also their current contract for sourcing for nylon has been a bit challenging in this economic environment. And I think it boils down to, there's really been a margin compression that's occurred especially in the nylon area. And surprisingly, in some cases they've -- it's thought that they haven't raised price. It's actually the fact that they didn't adjust price downward, stay competitive and they've lost volume.

我認為，在當前的經濟環境下，他們目前的尼龍採購合約也面臨一些挑戰。我認為，歸根結底，利潤率確實受到了擠壓，尤其是在尼龍領域。令人驚訝的是，在某些情況下，他們——人們認為他們沒有漲價。事實上，他們沒有下調價格，保持競爭力，導致銷量下降。

They've also had some pretty significant foreign currency headwinds, which are different than we've experienced due to the fact that therefore in current -- they're a bit more exposed than we are with the way they write their contracts. So if we think about moving forward now into the rest of the fourth quarter that we've closed and moving into next year, I'll talk a little bit about how we'll address each of these.

他們也面臨著一些相當嚴重的外匯逆風，這與我們經歷的不同，因為目前他們在簽訂合約的方式上比我們更容易受到影響。所以，如果我們考慮現在進入已經結束的第四季度剩餘時間，並展望明年，我將稍微談談我們將如何應對這些逆風。

So on the foreign currency headwind that's an impact of almost over $20 million for us alone in November and December on the M&M assets. And so I think we really -- we're looking at how do we optimize our commercial practices to address the sales currency exposures. So what's denominated in local currency and what's in U.S. dollars. We also can use some of our debt to look at converting more of our U.S. dollar debt to lower rate currencies like the euro or the yuan or the yen which will help us lower our borrowing rate, so it will help the overall financial condition of the company.

因此，光是11月和12月，外匯逆風就對我們M&M資產造成了近2,000萬美元的影響。因此，我認為我們確實在研究如何優化商業實踐，以應對銷售貨幣風險。哪些是以當地貨幣計價的，哪些是以美元計價的。我們還可以利用部分債務，考慮將更多美元債務轉換為歐元、人民幣或日圓等利率較低的貨幣，這將有助於我們降低借款利率，從而改善公司的整體財務狀況。

I think when we look at key raw materials and the purchasing requirement, we will be able to exercise some of the flexibility we have within Celanese to really utilize some of the M&M polymer capacity. So if you think about it, M&M has a fairly large take-or-pay contract currently for raw materials for nylon. And so they've been producing a lot of material, but they've been building inventory. We can actually start buying that -- using that inventory, using that excess production for Celanese, which will be net-net better for both companies together.

我認為，當我們審視關鍵原料和採購需求時，我們將能夠運用塞拉尼斯內部的一些彈性，真正利用M&M的部分聚合物產能。想想看，M&M目前在尼龍原料方面簽訂了相當大的照付不議合約。他們一直在生產大量材料，但也一直在累積庫存。我們實際上可以開始購買這些材料——利用這些庫存，為塞拉尼斯提供過剩的產能，這對兩家公司來說都是有利的。

I think also, remember, we called out at the time of the deal, there is actually -- the contract for raws has been renegotiated and a new contract will come in place at the first of 2023. This new contract has less take-or-pay requirements, so that will give us more flexibility and optionality going forward. So let us -- I think about it as it will really let us start -- it's one element of starting to run this larger nylon portfolio in a more integrated, flexible, commercially agile way, much like the transition we went through with POM a few years ago, much like the transition we went through with acetyls some year before that.

我還想，記得我們在交易時就提到過，實際上——原料合約已經重新談判，新合約將於2023年初生效。新合約減少了「照付不議」的要求，這將為我們未來的發展提供更大的靈活性和選擇性。所以，我認為它真的能讓我們開始——這是開始以更一體化、更靈活、更商業化的方式運作這個更大的尼龍產品組合的一個要素，就像我們幾年前在聚甲醛（POM）方面經歷的轉型，就像我們前幾年在乙醯基方面經歷的轉型一樣。

On the volume side, I think we have a lot of opportunities between M&M and the heritage selling these assets to really deploy our combined commercial team to cross-sell not just online but other products, including other selling these products. So as we've gotten to really look at where all of our products are going, there's only about a 20% overlap in terms of the companies that are buying from us. So that was a really large space for us to go into the companies that each other has been in and really start cross-selling the entire portfolio versus just what we had traditionally.

從銷售方面來看，我認為在M&M和傳統資產出售方面，我們有很多機會可以真正部署我們合併後的商業團隊，不僅進行線上交叉銷售，還進行其他產品的交叉銷售，包括其他銷售這些產品的公司。因此，當我們認真審視所有產品的去向時，我們發現，就採購我們的公司而言，重疊度只有大約20%。因此，這對我們來說是一個非常大的空間，我們可以深入彼此曾經投資過的公司，真正開始交叉銷售整個產品組合，而不是僅限於我們傳統的產品。

Pricing, again, margin compression there. We actually think there's some opportunity in pricing to do it in a more differentiated way. So if you really look, our analysis so far is M&M took a fairly common response on pricing to everything. Whereas we like to look at it in a couple of different tranches. So for really differentiated products, we will always push pricing because we have the opportunity to do that.

定價，再次強調，利潤率受到壓縮。我們實際上認為，在定價方面，我們有機會以更具差異化的方式實現這一目標。所以，如果你仔細觀察，我們目前的分析是，M&M 對所有產品的定價都採取了相當普遍的應對措施。而我們則喜歡將其分成幾個不同的階段來看。因此，對於真正差異化的產品，我們始終會提高定價，因為我們有機會這樣做。

For more standard-grade products, there may be places where you, in fact, have to reduce pricing in the current environment in order to maintain the same volume. And I think for us -- and then cross-selling is another opportunity. But I think for us, it's really instead of having one rule about we want to maximize margin percent or we want to maximize revenue or maximize volume, for us it is always looking at value. How do we maximize the margin dollars being achieved from the products that we have out there.

對於更標準等級的產品，在當前環境下，為了保持相同的銷量，實際上可能有些地方不得不降價。我認為對我們來說——交叉銷售是另一個機會。但我認為，對我們來說，真正的重點不是最大化利潤率、最大化收入或最大化銷售量，而是始終專注於價值。我們如何才能最大限度地提高現有產品的利潤率？

And then finally -- I don't know this is one answer. Finally, on inventory, M&M has built a pretty large excess of finished goods in inventory over 2022 as they've seen some drop-off in market share. And as they've continued to produce because of their raw material contract, that is burdening our November and December EBITDA as we start trying to take measures to get that inventory more in line.

最後——我不知道這算不算一個答案。最後，關於庫存，由於市佔率有所下降，M&M 在 2022 年累積了大量過剩的成品庫存。由於原料合約的簽訂，他們仍在繼續生產，這給我們 11 月和 12 月的 EBITDA 帶來了負擔，我們正開始採取措施，使庫存更加符合預期。

But longer term, it will allow us to manage our inventory levels, again, more like POM so that our pricing and our cost becomes more contemporary with each other. So we don't see as much kind of disconnect between cost and pricing as we go forward. So again, we'll take these actions now. We've already started all of that. But it will take some time, I'd say, to get the business performing to our expectations.

但從長遠來看，這將使我們能夠更像生產計劃（POM）一樣管理庫存水平，從而使我們的定價和成本更加同步。因此，未來我們不會再看到成本和定價之間出現太大的脫節。所以，我們現在會採取這些措施。我們已經開始了所有這些措施。但我想說，要讓業務表現達到我們的預期，還需要一些時間。

So if we look at next year, if we look at the, I'd say, $800 million of EBITDA that we aspire to for next year and that we're really pushing the team to achieve on the M&M asset. I mean it is a big lift. I mean it's coming from about what we think is going to be around $500 million this year, for the M&M assets in EBITDA to $800 million, that looks really big. I would remind you though that with the Celanese EM portfolio, we went from $571 million last year in 2021 to $800 million this year.

所以，如果我們展望明年，如果我們看看我們明年的EBITDA（息稅折舊攤銷前利潤），我想說，我們期望明年實現8億美元的EBITDA，而且我們正在全力推動團隊在M&M資產上實現這個目標。我的意思是，這是一個巨大的提升。我的意思是，今年我們預計M&M資產的EBITDA約為5億美元，而今年達到8億美元，看起來確實很大。不過，我想提醒大家的是，塞拉尼斯的EM投資組合，從去年的5.71億美元到2021年已經成長到了8億美元。

So it's not that much bigger than we've already demonstrated that we know how to do. And we already have a lot of actions underway and how we're going to do that. We're going to be helped by 4% higher auto builds next year. I think that's pretty consistently called out by everyone. And we've already been prequalifying the M&M nylon into our applications, our heritage selling these applications. So we have a great start on that.

所以，規模並沒有比我們已經證明的規模大多少。我們已經在進行許多行動，並正在製定具體措施。明年汽車產量將成長4%，這將對我們有所幫助。我想，這是大家一致呼籲的。我們已經對M&M尼龍進行了預認證，並將其應用於我們的應用領域，這是我們銷售這些應用的傳統。因此，我們在這方面已經有了一個很好的開始。

Tom has already been meeting with all of the business teams in M&M to really do the deep dive, so we really can understand the nature of underperformance, what the opportunities are for next year. So I'd say we're off to a very strong start. Yes, $800 million is a lift, but again, not unachievable given our demonstrated performance in our own portfolio.

湯姆已經與M&M的所有業務團隊進行了深入交流，以便我們真正了解業績不佳的本質，以及明年的機會。所以我認為我們的開局非常強勁。沒錯，8億美元的確是一個提升，但考慮到我們自身投資組合的良好表現，這並非遙不可及。

Our next questions come from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, Q4 EPS is annualizing at roughly $7 per share. Could you or Scott, help us bridge us to the $14 upper end of the range for next year?

Lori，第四季的年化每股盈餘約為7美元。你或Scott能幫我們把明年的每股盈餘控制在14美元的上限嗎？

Yes. I mean again, I don't think you can look at Q4 and multiply that times 4 and get to a number for next year in terms of EBIT. Q4, we are seeing a lot of headwinds, a lot of challenges. In Q4, again, because of the really slump we've seen in China with paintings, coatings and construction with the ongoing COVID-19 lockdown, the situation in Europe, where we've also seen the drop there. The U.S. has held up pretty well. But I think in some of the destocking that we've seen, especially in acetyls and the fact that acetyls is that is basically bumping and bouncing around its cost curve. These are conditions that we don't believe can last forever.

是的。我的意思是，我認為你不能把第四季的數據乘以4，就能得出明年息稅前利潤的預測。第四季度，我們面臨諸多阻力和挑戰。第四季度，由於中國持續的新冠疫情封鎖導致油漆、塗料和建築業嚴重衰退，歐洲的情況也出現了下滑。美國市場表現相當不錯。但我認為，我們看到一些去庫存現象，尤其是在乙醯基產品方面，乙醯基的價格基本上在成本曲線附近波動。我們認為這種情況不會永遠持續下去。

So while we think first quarter may be challenging, we do see line of sight would be somewhat better than fourth quarter, again, because we have a lot of things coming in with M&M that we're having to manage in the fourth quarter. But I think by first quarter, we start to see realization of some of the synergies. We'll have had a chance to start making some of the moves I just talked about. And then we really do expect the second half of the year to be back around in that $13 to $14 range.

因此，雖然我們認為第一季可能充滿挑戰，但我們確實認為未來前景會比第四季略好一些，因為第四季有很多與M&M相關的業務需要處理。但我認為，到第一季度，我們將開始看到一些協同效應的實現。我們將有機會開始實施我剛才提到的一些措施。然後，我們確實預計下半年的股價將回到13美元到14美元的區間。

And again, a big portion of that is a lift I just described on M&M, but we have continued growth in our own Engineered Materials business, in addition to the 4% higher auto builds, we will see a GUR list next year. GUR sold out for EV, so lithium-ion battery separator films, that demand is only going up. So that will allow us to raise margins in GUR next year. LCP margins are also going up next year as we see high demand into 5G applications.

再次強調，這很大一部分是剛才我提到的M&M帶來的成長，但我們自身的工程材料業務也持續成長。除了汽車產量成長4%之外，明年我們還將迎來GUR（優質材料）業務。電動車的GUR業務已售罄，因此對鋰離子電池隔膜的需求只會持續增長。這將使我們能夠在明年提高GUR的利潤率。由於我們看到5G應用的需求旺盛，LCP的利潤率明年也將上升。

Next year we'll get a full benefit from Santoprene and KEPCO. And Santoprene we do expect it to be back to the levels we had called out at the time of the deal in terms of returns on Santoprene. And then medical, which we saw this quarter return to pre-COVID levels, we are predicting continued growth in medical, both in terms of orthopedics, but also in terms of the other applications like vital dose and medical devices.

明年，我們將從Santoprene和韓國電力公司（KEPCO）獲得全部收益。我們確實預期Santoprene的回報率將恢復到交易時我們預測的水平。醫療業務方面，我們本季看到其回報率已恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。我們預計醫療業務將繼續成長，不僅在骨科領域，也在重要劑量和醫療器材等其他應用領域。

So we see a lot of growth opportunities next year, in the M&M portfolio, in our heritage Celanese portfolio, and we do see strengthening across -- the opportunity to strengthen across the acetyl chain as we move on through the year. I would also say we will have a good uplift next year in our total earnings. As we talked about last quarter, we have been doing a lot to really restructure our Acetate Tow business as we are starting to run it more like we do a derivative of the acetyl chain.

因此，我們看到明年在M&M產品組合以及我們原有的塞拉尼斯產品組合中都有很多增長機會，而且我們確實看到了乙醯基鏈各個環節的增強——隨著我們全年的發展，乙醯基鏈的各個環節都有機會增強。我還想說，明年我們的總收益將大幅提升。正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們一直在大力重組醋酸纖維絲束業務，因為我們開始更像經營乙醯基鏈的衍生物。

And much like we saw when we started doing that with BAM and emulsion that allows us to build a more optionality and more flexibility, which will increase our earnings. Historically, we've run that tow business really focus on customer value, quality and reliability of supply. When China went independent, that reliability of supply became less important to our customers because there was an overhang in other regions. Now that it's timed up again. We're at kind of 90% utilization in tow outside of China.

就像我們開始使用BAM和乳劑時看到的那樣，這讓我們擁有了更多的選擇性和靈活性，從而增加了我們的收益。從歷史上看，我們經營拖車業務時真正關注的是客戶價值、品質和供應可靠性。當中國獨立後，供應可靠性對我們的客戶來說變得不那麼重要了，因為其他地區有供應過剩的問題。現在時機又到了。我們在中國以外的拖車利用率大約達到90%。

And so that with the raw material and the energy volatility has given us an opportunity now to really go in, put in new contract structures that allow us to better accommodate changes in raw material and energy pricing, really enhance the business models in tow, take some cost out of tow by integrating it into the acetic acid team and while still maintaining that reliability of supply and that strong customer focus that we've had. So the result is we will be seeing much improved profitability in 2023, along with greatly improved flexibility.

因此，原材料和能源的波動性現在給了我們一個機會，讓我們能夠真正深入其中，建立新的合約結構，從而更好地適應原材料和能源價格的變化，真正優化拖曳業務模式，並通過將其整合到醋酸團隊來降低拖曳成本，同時仍然保持我們一貫的供應可靠性和高度的客戶關注度。因此，我們將在2023年看到獲利能力的大幅提升，同時彈性也將大幅提升。

And do you have a forecast for tow next year, an early look at the improved profitability?

您對明年的獲利能力提升有何預測？

No. What I would say is if you look at what we called out for tow in 2023 in the Investor Day, we will be at or above that.

不。我想說的是，如果你看看我們在投資者日呼籲的 2023 年拖車水平，我們就會達到或超過這個水平。

Our next questions come from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess, first off, Lori, just in your prepared comments, you were talking about inventory destocking. And is it as simple as we just went from a world of just too little to too much very quickly. And so that's what's exaggerating some of the weakness that you're seeing? And then related to that, can you just give us a time line into your visibility that this will last through the first quarter, if not longer.

首先，Lori，你剛剛在準備好的評論中談到了庫存去庫存。這是否就這麼簡單，就代表我們很快就從庫存過少變成了庫存過剩？所以，這就是你所看到的一些疲軟被誇大的原因？然後，與此相關，你能否給我們一個時間表，看看你認為這種情況會持續到第一季度，甚至更久。

Yes. Look -- Ghansham, thanks for the question. I think you have it exactly right. I mean I think we went from everybody being worried about not being able to get molecules and kind of buying whatever they could get their hands on. So all of a sudden, all the production issues were resolved, demand started going down and people realized there was availability, and they have hyper-cross inventory and tankage, they want to bring that down before the end of the year, and they assume that the molecules will be there.

是的。 Ghansham，謝謝你的提問。我覺得你說得完全正確。我的意思是，我們之前每個人都擔心買不到藥物，所以幾乎什麼都能買到就買什麼。突然之間，所有的生產問題都解決了，需求開始下降，人們意識到還有供應，而且他們有超高的庫存和儲罐，他們想在年底前把庫存降下來，而且他們覺得藥物肯定有貨。

Just like when we see prices rising, people start buying because they think it will be more expensive tomorrow. Right now, they've seen prices falling, so they quit buying because they think it will be cheaper tomorrow. But I think a few things behind why we've gotten into this. I mean we are seeing improved logistics. We are seeing improvement in port congestion and the ability to move materials around the globe. We are seeing improved product availability. There's been less outages and disruptions in the last quarter than we've been having over the previous few years. We are seeing a weaker demand outlook, both again because of paints and coatings, which I talked about, specifically in Europe and China, but also just some seasonality that we see in this area.

就像我們看到價格上漲時，人們開始購買，因為他們認為明天會更貴。現在，他們看到價格下跌，所以就停止購買，因為他們認為明天會更便宜。但我認為我們之所以採取這種行動，背後有幾個原因。我的意思是，我們看到物流狀況正在改善。我們看到港口壅塞狀況有所改善，全球物資運輸能力也正在增強。我們看到產品供應有所改善。上個季度的停駛和中斷比過去幾年有所減少。我們看到需求前景疲軟，這同樣是因為我之前提到的油漆和塗料市場，尤其是在歐洲和中國，但也是我們在這個地區看到的一些季節性因素。

And again, falling prices, I think, is a big effect on people's mental view of what they think. So I do think this is likely to extend into first quarter '23. Typically, when we see this flip is as we get through Chinese New Year, then we start to see demand coming up again, and we start to see activities coming up again. And then as you get warming in the Western Hemisphere, you start to see it coming up. So that's why I feel pretty confident in saying we expect to see this start to turn in the other direction sometime after the first quarter.

再說一次，我認為價格下跌會對人們的心理認知產生很大影響。所以我認為這種情況可能會延續到2023年第一季。通常情況下，這種轉變發生在農曆新年過後，需求會開始回升，經濟活動也會開始活躍起來。然後，隨著西半球氣溫回升，這種情況又會開始出現。因此，我非常有信心地說，我們預計第一季之後的某個時候，情況會開始出現逆轉。

Yes, the one area where we don't see a lot of excess inventory, Ghansham, is in automotive. And I think that's an area we're focused very closely on -- we don't have that value chain that's full. So we're not seeing big destocking. We're seeing some level of seasonality here in the fourth quarter that's more like normal. But we do expect the fact that auto has been at relatively low levels from a build standpoint in the last 2 years, that to kind of hold flat or slightly increase as we're working our way into next year. So that's an area that we feel good about that we're not going to see major weakness as we work our way into the first half of next year.

是的，Ghansham，我們唯一沒有看到大量過剩庫存的領域是汽車產業。我認為這是我們非常關注的領域——我們的價值鏈還沒有完全飽和。所以我們沒有看到大規模的去庫存。我們在第四季度看到了一些季節性因素，這更像是正常的。但我們確實預計，從過去兩年汽車製造業的產量來看，汽車產量在過去兩年一直處於相對較低的水平，因此在進入明年之前，汽車產量應該會保持平穩或略有增長。因此，我們對這個領域感到樂觀，因為在進入明年上半年之前，我們不會再看到明顯的疲軟。

Okay. And then maybe for you, Scott, on the $1-plus billion of discretionary free cash flow that you've targeted for 2023, what are the levers you can pull to deliver on that number in the scenario that the weakness you're anticipating through 1Q pushes a bit longer to the middle of the year.

好的。那麼，史考特，對您來說，關於您在2023年實現10億美元以上的可自由支配現金流的目標，如果您預計第一季的疲軟狀態會延續到年中，那麼您能採取哪些措施來實現這一目標呢？

Yes. I think as we've scenario planned that out, Ghansham, we feel very confident in our ability to get to that level and under a variety of different outcomes that could be there. And a lot of that is the working capital build that we've had over the last 18 months has been fairly sizable. We've seen a similar build in the M&M business. And therefore, if we were to see a deeper decline in the first half of next year, there would likely be a much heavier collection of that working capital.

是的。 Ghansham，我想，正如我們之前所設想的那樣，我們非常有信心能夠達到這個水平，並且能夠應對各種可能出現的結果。這很大程度上得益於我們在過去18個月中累積的相當可觀的營運資本。 M&M業務也出現了類似的成長。因此，如果明年上半年出現更深的下滑，我們很可能會需要更大量的營運資本。

So we feel very strong about that. We continue to analyze. I think we've talked on these calls in the past about a quarterly review of capital and looking at what our businesses need, both in the near term and long term to better match that capital spend. We brought that capital down on a combined basis already, expecting around $600 million of capital next year. We lowered the capital this year down to $550 million. And so those are levers that we'll continue to evaluate depending on where the demand landscape is.

所以我們對此非常有信心。我們會繼續分析。我記得我們之前在電話會議上討論過季度資本審查，並研究我們的業務在短期和長期需要什麼，以便更好地匹配資本支出。我們已經將這部分資本總額降低了，預計明年的資本總額約為6億美元。今年我們已將資本總額降至5.5億美元。因此，我們將根據需求狀況繼續評估這些槓桿。

Our next questions come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

You gave an idea of acetic acid prices in China as being close to $400 a tonne. Can you give us some reference prices and trends in VAM across your geographies?

您之前提到，中國醋酸價格接近每噸400美元。您能否提供一些您所在地區醋酸乙烯（VAM）的參考價格和趨勢？

Yes. I think that's one of the big differences we saw in third quarter, Jeff, as we saw VAM in China, which has still been running quite attractively, I'd say, kind of $1,400, $1,500, really come down to about $1,000 a ton at the -- by the end of the third quarter, which is, we believe, pretty much at the cost curve in China. So that's been a big change. And again, tied directly to paints and coatings as a large percentage of our emulsions go into paintings and coatings.

是的。傑夫，我認為這是我們在第三季看到的一個巨大差異。我們看到中國的VAM價格仍然相當誘人，大概在1,400美元或1,500美元左右，到第三季末，價格已經降到了每噸1,000美元左右，我們認為這基本上與中國的成本曲線持平。所以這是一個巨大的改變。而且，這與油漆和塗料直接相關，因為我們很大一部分乳液都用於油漆和塗料。

I mean to give you an idea, we saw about a 15% -- 15% to 20% drop in emulsion demand globally in the third quarter. In Europe, I think we're also starting to see some compression of margins for acid and VAM. I don't have the exact number for VAM right now in Europe on the tip of my tongue. But in Europe -- I mean, sorry, in the U.S., it's holding up a bit better, although we start to see some softening there. Again, I think the softening outside of China is more on destocking, necessarily been absolute demand. But in China, which I think is the easiest reference price, we see VAM coming down to about $1,000 per ton, which, again, is probably right at the cost curve for VAM in China.

我來給你舉個例子，我們發現第三季全球乳液需求下降了約15%——15%到20%。在歐洲，我認為我們也開始看到酸和VAM的利潤率壓縮。目前我還不知道歐洲VAM的具體價格。但在歐洲——我的意思是，抱歉，在美國，情況要好一些，儘管我們開始看到那裡的價格有所走弱。同樣，我認為中國以外地區的價格走弱更多是由於去庫存，這必然是絕對需求。但在中國，我認為最容易參考的價格，我們看到VAM的價格降至每噸約1000美元，這可能正好處於中國VAM的成本曲線上。

And then a follow-up. In -- I think in Scott's script, he said that he's confident in paying down debt in '23 across a wide variety of macro scenarios. And then you said that in the most challenging one, you have a detailed playbook. Can you give us an idea what the detailed playbook is and what a most challenging scenario would be like?

然後是後續問題。我記得在史考特的劇本裡，他說他有信心在2023年償還各種宏觀情境的債務。然後你說，在最具挑戰性的情境下，你有一個詳細的計畫。可以跟我們講一下這個詳細的計畫是什麼嗎？最具挑戰性的情景會是什麼樣子？

Yes, Jeff, I think there are 2 times, I think, over the past 15 or so years where we've had to really pull back hard with a heavy focus on near-term cash. And I think that was coming out of the economic crisis, 2008, '09 and then again in the early days of COVID in 2020. And that really focuses around cash collection and harvesting of cash, which, as I mentioned before, we feel very comfortable with as we work our way into the first part of next year.

是的，傑夫。我認為在過去15年左右的時間裡，有兩次我們不得不大幅縮減開支，並將重點放在短期現金上。一次是2008年、2009年經濟危機之後，另一次是在2020年新冠疫情初期。當時的重點是現金的收集和獲取，正如我之前提到的，隨著我們步入明年上半年，我們對此感到非常安心。

And then it's a heavy focus on capital and what capital needs. Our manufacturing teams have done a great job being able to flex as needed even on large capital projects. If you recall, we paused the Clear Lake acetic asset expansion back in 2020. And then we're able to utilize that time to lower the overall cost of that project, but significantly reduce the capital, and we were able to bring our CapEx spend, which was expected to be north of $500 million in 2020, down to around $300 million.

然後，我們重點關注資本以及資本需求。我們的製造團隊表現出色，即使在大型資本項目中也能根據需要靈活調整。如果您還記得的話，我們在2020年暫停了Clear Lake醋酸資產的擴建。然後，我們能夠利用這段時間降低該專案的總成本，同時大幅減少資本支出，並將資本支出從2020年預計的5億美元以上降至約3億美元。

And so we are in process, as I mentioned earlier, of looking at where those levers are for 2023, both across our legacy portfolio as well as the M&M CapEx spend so that we can focus really around near-term productivity as well as cost reduction. And if there are projects that can be paused, we will do that.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在研究2023年的槓桿作用，涵蓋我們現有的投資組合以及M&M資本支出，以便我們能夠真正專注於短期生產力和成本削減。如果有項目可以暫停，我們就會這麼做。

Our next questions come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Lori, I think in the script, you said the $13 to $14 plus of EPS for next year, did not assume a recession because you're not seeing that in your order book. Can you give us a sense of what a recessionary range for '23 would be if we do indeed go into recession? Is it $12 to $14, $10 to $12? What would you think on a high level?

洛里，我記得在腳本中，你說明年每股收益13到14美元以上，並沒有假設經濟衰退，因為你在訂單簿上沒有看到這一點。如果我們真的陷入衰退，可以告訴我們2023年的衰退區間是多少嗎？是12到14美元，還是10到12美元？你覺得整體上會是多少？

Yes. Look, Vincent, I don't really have a number for that. I think if we just look at current demand conditions and especially at auto, I think everybody is pretty consistent in thinking auto is continuing to go up next year. I don't find that surprising. That's consistent with what we're hearing from customers. I mean we've had 3 years of very low auto production. We think there's still a lot of pent-up demand. We think supply will continue to be the determining factor for auto, so supply of chips and other materials is what will be the determining factor.

是的。文森特，我並沒有確切的數字。我認為，如果我們只看當前的需求狀況，尤其是汽車市場，我認為每個人都一致認為明年汽車價格會繼續上漲。這並不奇怪。這與我們從客戶那裡聽到的一致。我的意思是，我們已經經歷了三年的汽車產量低迷。我們認為仍然有很多被壓抑的需求。我們認為供應將繼續成為汽車市場的決定性因素，所以晶片和其他材料的供應才是決定性因素。

Now obviously, as interest rates go up, there may be some regions where that has some impact. But quite frankly, we think auto, which, especially with M&M, is now a significant part of our portfolio, again, is really an upside for next year. And so I think in that way, if this -- if we do go into a recession, I mean it's a little bit different this time in that usually in a recession, I mean -- a couple of things, usually in a recession, you see energy starts to come down and then prices, which in this case, energy is staying up because of geopolitical concern. So that's a little bit different.

顯然，隨著利率上升，某些地區可能會受到影響。但坦白說，我們認為汽車產業，尤其是M&M，現在是我們投資組合的重要組成部分，對明年來說確實是一個利好。所以我認為，如果我們真的陷入經濟衰退，這次的情況會有所不同，因為通常在經濟衰退中，通常會出現一些情況，例如能源價格開始下降，而這次的情況則由於地緣政治擔憂而保持上漲。所以這次的情況有所不同。

We're seeing full employment, especially here in the U.S., which is why I think we're not seeing some of the impacts in the U.S. because although people are being hit by inflation, it's -- there is full employment. So it doesn't feel as hard as most recessions where you see a lot of layoffs and people without jobs.

我們正處於充分就業狀態，尤其是在美國。正因如此，我認為美國才沒有受到通貨膨脹的影響。因為儘管人們受到通貨膨脹的衝擊，但美國仍處於充分就業狀態。因此，感覺不像大多數經濟衰退那樣嚴重，不會出現大量裁員和失業的情況。

And then I think the third thing is auto. I mean auto is usually one of the leading indicators of a recession and a drop in demand for autos. And in fact, we see it going the other way in this recession. So we haven't really modeled what I would call a recessionary scenario. And because we just don't see it happening even if technically, mathematically, it's calculated as a recession, we don't see that.

我認為第三件事是汽車。我的意思是，汽車通常是經濟衰退和汽車需求下降的先行指標之一。事實上，在這次經濟衰退中，我們看到情況恰恰相反。所以我們還沒有真正模擬我所說的衰退情景。因為我們沒有看到它發生，即使從技術上和數學上，它被計算為衰退，我們也沒有看到它發生。

The other thing I would add to that, Vincent, is with the synergies that we have, we've already increased our synergy number for year 1 and expect to have between $135 million of full achieved synergies next year. And if we see continued demand decline in non-auto segments, then we'll look for ways at which to flex and accelerate further synergies. So we do feel very confident of being able to get to that range that we put in the prepared comments.

文森特，我想補充一點，鑑於我們現有的協同效應，我們已經提高了第一年的協同效應數字，預計明年將實現1.35億美元的全面協同效應。如果我們發現非汽車領域的需求持續下降，我們將尋找靈活變通的方法，加速進一步的綜效。因此，我們非常有信心能夠達到我們在準備好的評論中提出的目標範圍。

Okay. And just a follow-up, the prepared comments had a discussion on what you've already done with the plant footprint, particularly in the acetyl chain with some reductions. But how are you thinking about how you're going to run the chain in '23? And I guess, in particular, how is the Clear Lake expansion coming? And how could that play a role in '23?

好的。接下來，準備好的評論討論了您在工廠足跡方面已經採取的措施，特別是在乙醯基鏈方面有所減少。但是，您打算如何在2023年營運這條產業鏈？我想，特別是Clear Lake擴建工程進度如何？它將在2023年發揮什麼作用？

Yes. So I think if we look at this year, we have already reduced our rates in the acetyl chain in China and in Singapore down to 50% to 70% of our capacity. And we did that because we see demand. We don't want to build a lot of inventory we've seen demand come off. So we've already taken that step. In some areas, we've gone down to as little as 30% of operating capacity like in emulsions where we've seen the big drop there. So I think we've been really proactive in managing our response. That's obviously a cost savings, but we're really focused on aligning our actions with the customer demand.

是的。所以我認為，就今年而言，我們已經將中國和新加坡乙醯基鏈的產能利用率降至產能的50%到70%。我們這樣做是因為我們看到了需求。我們不想囤積大量庫存，因為需求已經下降。所以我們已經採取了這項措施。在某些領域，我們的產能已經降至只有30%，例如乳液領域，那裡的產能下降幅度很大。所以我認為我們在管理應對措施方面非常積極主動。這顯然可以節省成本，但我們真正關注的是讓我們的行動與客戶需求保持一致。

Similarly, in Frankfurt, given the high cost -- energy cost in Frankfurt and the softening demand in Europe, we've reduced our POM rates at Frankfurt, again, to align our demand with -- the customer demand with our own production. And we've made the decision for the VAM plant in Frankfurt to go ahead and keep that unit down until we see demand coming back.

同樣，在法蘭克福，考慮到法蘭克福的高成本——能源成本以及歐洲需求的疲軟，我們再次降低了法蘭克福的POM價格，以使我們的需求與客戶需求和我們自身的生產保持一致。我們決定繼續運作法蘭克福的VAM工廠，並保持裝置的停產，直到我們看到需求回升。

I mean the good news is all of these steps we're taking. This is still economic capacity. It would still make money if we ran it, but we just don't see enough demand. So we can optimize our chain better by moving molecules around the globe and using lower cost capacity, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast to meet some of these global demands now that we have less global demand.

我的意思是，好消息是我們正在採取的所有這些措施。這仍然是經濟產能。如果我們繼續運營，它仍然可以獲利，但我們只是沒有看到足夠的需求。因此，我們可以更好地優化我們的供應鏈，透過在全球範圍內運輸分子，並使用成本更低的產能，特別是在美國墨西哥灣沿岸，來滿足目前全球需求減少的部分需求。

And so you're going to continue to see actions like that as we go into 2023. What I would say is, look, VAM is ready in Frankfurt when we start to see this come back, hopefully, by the end of the first quarter, we'll be able to start that unit up. Everything else is just a matter of lifting the rate, so that's a day's decision to do it. So that's easy.

所以，隨著我們進入2023年，你將繼續看到類似的行動。我想說的是，當我們開始看到這種情況回升時，法蘭克福的VAM已經準備就緒，希望在第一季末，我們能夠啟動裝置。剩下的只是提高利率的問題，所以這是一天之內就能做出的決定。所以這很容易。

And on Clear Lake -- what I would say about Clear Lake is we are on track to mechanically complete and start up the unit. In the first half, we intend to do so. Again, the justification for that project was productivity. We called out about $100 million a year in productivity. So even if we see no need to run additional capacity in the Gulf Coast, we will run that unit for productivity and get the $100 million savings -- run rate savings, I should say, the first year will obviously be that much. But run that unit for productivity. And then we have the option if we see something similar happen as we saw happen in '21, where we see a run-up in demand or if there are operating issues around the globe, we can start running that unit at higher rates and get even additional margins from that.

關於Clear Lake——我想說的是，我們正按計劃完成並啟動裝置。我們計劃在上半年完成。再次強調，該項目的理由是生產力。我們預計每年的生產力約為1億美元。因此，即使我們認為沒有必要在墨西哥灣沿岸增加產能，我們也會為了提高生產率而運行該裝置，並節省1億美元——我應該說，運行率節省的金額，第一年顯然就能達到這麼多。但運行該裝置是為了提高生產率。然後，如果我們看到類似2021年的情況發生，即需求激增，或者全球出現營運問題，我們可以選擇以更高的運行率運行該裝置，並從中獲得更高的利潤。

And our next question is coming from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Yes, Lori, can you speak to a bridge between the rough run rate of $500 million that you referenced for M&M this year to the target of $800 million that you have for 2023. I appreciate that you've owned it just a few days, and I imagine it's difficult. But in formulating that $800 million number what are you baking in for things like price cost spread or normalization of volumes or perhaps the cross-selling or other company-specific actions that you mentioned. Any broad strokes related color there, I think, would be really helpful.

是的，Lori，您能否談談您提到的M&M今年5億美元的粗略運營率與2023年8億美元的目標之間的聯繫？感謝您幾天前就談到這個話題，我想這很難。但在製定8億美元這個數字時，您考慮了哪些因素，例如價差、銷量正常化，或您提到的交叉銷售或其他公司特定的措施？我認為，任何與此相關的粗略描述都會非常有幫助。

Yes. Look, I don't have a bridge. As you said, we've only owned it for 3 days. So we're still working on what are we learning? What can we immediately go do about it. So we've really been focused on not worrying so much about what happened in the past, but okay, how can we do this differently in the future.

是的。你看，我沒有橋。正如你所說，我們才擁有它三天。所以我們還在研究我們學到了什麼？我們可以立即做些什麼。所以我們一直專注於不要過度擔心過去發生的事情，但是好吧，我們未來可以怎麼做呢？

But I would say it's really more based on our own experience of what levers to pull. I mean there are some things like foreign currency. That was about $20 million in November, December that we think we can go rectify maybe not in November, December, but in next year. And so you annualize that, that's -- I don't know, right , just make up a number here, so that's $50 million or something. And then if you look at volume, they've lost about 15% market share, if we can through pricing and through cross-selling and recover that, that's a fairly large number.

但我想說，這實際上更多地取決於我們自身的經驗，即如何利用槓桿。我的意思是，有些事情，像是外匯。 11月和12月大約有2000萬美元，我們認為可以彌補，也許不是在11月或12月，而是在明年。所以，如果以年率計算，那就是──我不知道，對吧，隨便編個數字，像是5000萬美元左右。然後，如果你看看銷量，他們已經損失了大約15%的市場份額，如果我們能透過定價和交叉銷售來挽回損失，那將是一個相當大的數字。

Remember, the DuPont number in 2021 for EBITDA was 7-some-ish, $750 million, something like that, so in the 700s. So just recovering the volumes that they had sold and taking care of some of the other factors that didn't exist in '21 like the currency, I think, pretty quickly gets us back to $800 million. So those are the things that we're focused on.

記住，杜邦公司2021年的EBITDA數字是7億多美元，7.5億美元左右，也就是700多億美元。所以，只要恢復他們之前的銷量，並考慮到2021年不存在的一些其他因素，例如匯率，我想很快就能讓我們回到8億美元。所以，這些就是我們關注的重點。

And then as Scott said, we will start to see some synergies as early as January 1st. we will have some synergies from office closures where we have overlapping office sites like Seoul and Singapore and others. So there are synergies that will come in there as well. I mean obviously, we'll account for those separately. But I think -- and then we have a new raw material contract that will come into play in January, which will give us flexibility, which will also be a source of value for us.

正如斯科特所說，我們最早將於1月1日開始看到一些協同效應。關閉一些辦公地點（例如首爾、新加坡等地）也會帶來一些綜效。所以，這些也會產生綜效。我的意思是，我們顯然會分別計算這些協同效應。但我認為——之後，我們將在一月簽訂新的原材料合同，這將為我們提供靈活性，這也將成為我們的價值來源。

So I wish I could give you a better bridge. We just don't have it to that level of detail yet because at this point, we're really trying to identify what's the 10 levers to pull, let's get those and actions, and then we'll quantify them all. But again, based on our own experience, based on where DuPont was in '21, we feel this is a list we can make to get to $800 million, if we get the organization really focused on it and really pushing towards it.

所以我希望我能更好地溝通。我們目前還沒有達到那種程度的細節，因為目前我們真正在努力確定需要拉動的10個槓桿是什麼，讓我們把這些槓桿和行動都拿出來，然後把它們全部量化。但同樣，根據我們自身的經驗，根據杜邦在2021年的狀況，我們認為，如果我們全公司真正專注於此並努力推動，我們可以列出這份清單，達到8億美元。

Fair enough, and I appreciate the color there. My second question is more in the spirit of clarification and maybe housekeeping for Scott. What is the amount of transaction-related amortization that's embedded in the incremental D&A of $350 million that you referenced? And moving forward, would you intend to include that or exclude that from your adjusted EPS in 2023?

很公平，我很欣賞你這種細緻的分析。我的第二個問題更多的是為了澄清一下，也或許是為了給史考特做些整理。你提到的3.5億美元增量折舊攤提中包含的交易相關攤銷金額是多少？展望未來，你打算在2023年的調整後每股盈餘中包含還是不包含這部分費用？

Yes. So of that $350 million, Kevin, the best way to think about it right now is about 1/3 of that would be base business depreciation and then 2/3 amortization. And that's an estimate right now. We'll be working through that here in the fourth quarter, and we would not be adjusting that out of our adjustments. So we'll include that. We will certainly provide color as to what that amount is, but we don't plan to adjust it out.

是的。凱文，對於這3.5億美元，目前最好的計算方式是，其中大約三分之一用於基礎業務折舊，然後三分之二用於攤銷。這只是目前的估算。我們將在第四季度進行計算，並且不會將其從調整中剔除。所以我們會將其納入調整範圍。我們肯定會提供具體金額，但我們不打算進行調整。

Next question is coming from the line of Mike Leithead with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

Great. First, just 2 quick ones on asset yields. First, the sequential decline in EBIT for acetyl chain in 4Q. Obviously, prices are down, volumes are down. But can you just help us with -- if in 4Q, there's any sort of onetime, either fixed cost absorption hit as you're running your assets lower or high cost inputs running through that shouldn't carry forward into '23.

好的。首先，關於資產報酬率，我簡單問兩個問題。首先，乙醯基鏈的息稅前利潤（EBIT）在第四季環比下降。顯然，價格下降，銷量也下降了。但是，您能否幫助我們了解一下—第四季度是否存在任何一次性影響，無論是由於資產運行減少而導致的固定成本吸收衝擊，還是高成本投入，這些影響不應該延續到2023年？

And second, you mentioned industry margins being unsustainably low. I guess when you look at previous times, kind of we've gone through this in the industry, what's sort of the usual time before that resolves itself? Or you see supply/demand start to balance itself out.

其次，您提到產業利潤率低得難以為繼。我想，回顧一下過去，我們這個行業經歷過類似的情況，通常需要多長時間才能解決這個問題？或者說，供需開始平衡。

Yes, there's really no, I'd say, onetime thing. I mean we've just seen deterioration through third quarter in terms of pricing and in terms of demand, again, specifically China, Europe, less so in the U.S. Especially as I called out, that drop in emulsions demand now that is like 15% to 20% down globally versus where we've been. So I could only describe the fourth quarter conditions as now kind of sub-foundational. Again, we think -- mostly it's seasonal. We think it's destocking. There is in end to destocking because people -- so I don't think it can get much worse, let's be honest.

是的，我想說，這真的不是一次性的事情。我的意思是，我們看到第三季的價格和需求都在惡化，尤其是中國和歐洲，美國的情況沒那麼糟。尤其是我之前提到的，乳液需求現在全球範圍內比之前下降了15%到20%。所以我只能說，第四季的情況現在有點低於基礎水準。再說一次，我們認為──主要是季節性因素。我們認為這是去庫存。去庫存最終會因為人們——所以說實話，我認為情況不會變得更糟。

And one of the reasons is when we see it in our order books, I mean, orders have stabilized again now at this lower level, but they've stabilized again. And so that's why we're saying, look, we think let's continue through the first quarter. And then as we move back into the construction season, hopefully, we see some movement in China on COVID, but we've said that before. And as maybe people gain more confidence in Europe and again, construction season comes back, we do expect towards the end of the first quarter, to start seeing recovery into more of a foundational level.

原因之一是，當我們在訂單簿上看到訂單量時，我的意思是，訂單量現在已經穩定在這個較低水平，但已經再次穩定下來了。這就是為什麼我們說，看，我們認為第一季應該繼續保持這種勢頭。然後，隨著我們重新進入建築旺季，希望我們能看到中國在新冠疫情方面有所進展，但我們之前就說過這一點。也許隨著人們對歐洲的信心增強，以及建築旺季的回歸，我們確實預計到第一季末，經濟將開始復甦，並進入更基礎的水平。

Great. That's helpful. And then second for Scott, I just want to dig in on the M&M currency exposure issue. I think obviously, you have pretty good visibility into the M&M country mix ahead of close. So was it a net hedging issue in M&M or a mismatch of sales in COGS currency? Just trying to get a sense of what was different when you got under the hood there.

太好了，這很有幫助。其次，史考特，我想深入探討M&M的貨幣風險問題。我認為，在交易完成之前，你顯然對M&M的國家組合情況有相當清晰的了解。那麼，這是M&M的淨避險問題，還是銷售成本貨幣的銷售不符？只是想了解一下，當你深入研究後，你會發現哪些地方有所不同。

Yes. I think we expect the annual impact this year to be about $100 million, which is not unlike the impact that we have in totality at Celanese today. And so it's a little higher weighting than what we see in our base Engineered Materials business. And I would kind of chalk it up to 2 things: one, a lot more cost in dollars in terms of what moves through. And then more sales in local currencies, whereas Celanese typically would sell in some of those countries on a dollar basis.

是的。我認為我們預計今年的年度影響約為1億美元，這與塞拉尼斯目前的整體影響並無二致。因此，它的權重比我們基礎工程材料業務的權重略高。我認為這主要歸因於兩個因素：第一，就流通業務而言，美元成本大幅增加。第二，以當地貨幣計算的銷售額增加，而塞拉尼斯通常在某些國家以美元計價銷售。

So those are the 2 things we're looking at from a business risk perspective of where we can make changes and where we can combine the power of the kind of in-country businesses that we have going forward. And I would also say there are certain things that at the enterprise level, we can do to help mitigate that. Lori alluded to some of those earlier and we'll be looking at that as well. And hopefully, we should get some run rate benefit in the early part of next year from those actions.

因此，從業務風險的角度來看，我們正在考慮兩件事：我們可以在哪些方面做出改變，以及我們可以在哪些方面整合我們未來在當地業務的力量。我還想說，在企業層面，我們可以採取一些措施來緩解這種風險。 Lori 之前提到過其中一些，我們也會考慮。希望這些措施能夠在明年年初帶來一些營運效益。

Our next question is coming from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

In terms of your outlook for '23, does that assume the normal foundational adjusted EBIT for the acetyl chain and that I think it's $1 billion to $1.5 billion range.

就您對 23 年的展望而言，是否假設乙醯基鏈的基礎調整後息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 正常，並且我認為其範圍在 10 億美元至 15 億美元之間。

Yes. Mike, obviously, we were a little (inaudible) when we gave the '23 guidance. But -- so what I would say is, so for 2023, if we think on the low end of what we're thinking of for acetyls, I would say we're assuming first quarter is sub foundational and then recovering. So if you think about that -- second quarter is probably foundational third quarter, fourth quarter. Let me just talk about foundational a little bit and what that means.

是的。麥克，顯然，我們在給出2023年業績指引時有點（聽不清楚）。但是——我想說的是，對於2023年，如果我們以乙醯基的低端市場為基準，我會假設第一季的業績低於基礎水平，然後開始復甦。所以，如果你這樣想──第二季可能是第三季、第四季的基礎水準。讓我簡單談談基礎水平以及它的含義。

So we always meant foundational was meant to capture the low end of the typical range. We didn't really capture recessionary conditions. As I said, we're kind of seeing that in acetyl. And so again, we believe fourth quarter this year and early 2023 will be sub foundational. And then we have some seasonality in the fourth quarter. So again, it's for a year average, but I think if you analyze even Q4, what we're calling out for acetyls, that's $900 million, and that's sub-foundational.

所以我們一直以來的意思是，基礎指標指的是典型值範圍的低階。我們並沒有真正捕捉到衰退的狀況。正如我所說，乙醯基產品中也出現了衰退。因此，我們再次強調，我們認為今年第四季和2023年初的銷售額將低於基礎指標。第四季也有一些季節性因素。所以，這又是一年的平均值，但我認為，即使分析第四季度，乙醯基產品的銷售額也只有9億美元，低於基礎指標。

So I think if you look at what does foundational really mean? It's probably more in the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion area, with $1.2 billion being after we finished the Clear Lake expansion, so just for some clarity. So I would say, next year, it's kind of on average for the year at that foundational level or a little bit lower at the lower end. As we all know, this market can move very quickly if we have some industry outages or anything else that causes, because we are still at pretty high utilization in the acetyl chain. So -- but that's how we're thinking about next year and how we're thinking about it relative to foundational earnings.

所以，我想，如果你看看「基礎」的真正意義是什麼？它可能在11億美元到12億美元之間，其中12億美元是在我們完成Clear Lake擴建之後，只是為了更清晰地解釋一下。所以我想說，明年的盈利水平大致相當於全年平均水平，或者在低端略低一些。眾所周知，如果出現產業中斷或其他原因，這個市場可能會變化非常快，因為我​​們的乙醯基鏈利用率仍然很高。所以——但這就是我們對明年的展望，也是我們相對於基礎獲利的展望。

Got it. And the base adjusted EBIT -- I'm sorry, the base Engineered Materials business, in '22, you're close to the $800 million adjusted EBITDA. I think you mentioned you felt there could be some growth. And maybe just maybe talk about what type of growth and where you'll see it from? And if you have any specific strain?

明白了。基礎調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBIT）－抱歉，是基礎工程材料業務，2022年，你們的調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）接近8億美元。我記得你提到過，你覺得可能會有一些成長。能不能談談成長的類型，以及成長的來源？有什麼具體的壓力嗎？

Yes. So the growth that we're expecting there is double digit. I would say it's the things I called out earlier, Mike. I mean it's the growth in auto, it's the margin lift in GUR due to full utilization. It's the margin lift in LCP due to high utilization and growing 5G applications. It's getting the full value from Santoprene now that we've had the opportunity to take pricing actions and other actions to get Santoprene marketing and getting the full value of KEPCO for the year as well as kind of double-digit growth that we've been seeing in medical. So I'd say those are the biggest factors driving that double-digit growth in margins for the heritage selling EM business.

是的。所以我們預計會有兩位數的成長。我想說，這就是我之前提到的因素，麥克。我的意思是，汽車業務的成長，GUR 利潤率由於滿載運轉而提升，LCP 利潤率也因高利用率和 5G 應用的成長而提升。現在，Santoprene 的價值正在充分體現，因為我們有機會採取定價策略和其他措施來提升 Santoprene 的行銷，並充分發揮 KEPCO 的年度價值，以及我們在醫療領域看到的兩位數成長。所以，我認為這些是推動傳統銷售 EM 業務利潤率達到兩位數成長的最大因素。

Our next question is coming from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

So maybe a question for Scott. When you look to better match the interest lines and the debt to kind of counter the FX impacts. I guess can you speak to, at least based on current rates, what that might mean for your interest expense? Does it send it up a bit? Does it send it down? I guess how should we be thinking about that?

所以我想問斯科特一個問題。您如何更好地匹配利息線和債務，以抵消外匯影響？您能否至少根據當前利率，談談這對您的利息支出意味著什麼？是會稍微上升還是下降？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Well, I think in those currencies where we have exposure of any size, I think we would -- it would lower the overall interest expense. However, John, we're going to be careful with when we do that. Obviously, those currencies have depreciated pretty substantially this year. And so there's a balance between interest expense versus then depending on when you move that over, do you end up having ultimately more leverage as that currency move. So we're going to be balanced in how we look at that, but we do see some opportunity as we get into next year to help with some of that business exposure.

嗯，我認為，對於我們有一定規模敞口的貨幣，這都會降低整體利息支出。不過，約翰，我們會謹慎行事。顯然，這些貨幣今年已經大幅貶值了。因此，利息支出與實際支出之間存在著一個平衡點，這取決於你何時轉移這些貨幣，以及隨著貨幣匯率的變動，你最終是否會擁有更大的槓桿。因此，我們將以平衡的態度看待這個問題，但進入明年，我們確實看到了一些機會，可以幫助我們降低部分業務敞口。

Got it. Fair enough. And then on the M&M front, in terms of the -- it sounds like they've been really running pretty hard just because they kind of had to do with take or pays and what have you. I guess can you quantify what the inventory build is versus kind of what you view as normal and how much we could see in terms of working capital released just out of that asset alone?

明白了。說得對。然後說到M&M，聽起來他們最近確實非常努力，因為他們有點跟「照付不議」之類的業務有關。您能否量化一下庫存成長情況，看看與您認為的正常情況相比，以及僅憑這項資產我們能看到多少營運資本的釋放？

Yes. I don't know that we have those numbers. And again, we're going to be taking some steps in the fourth quarter. That will continue into next year to use DuPont material to preplace our own purchases of polymer and different things. So I don't think we have a really firm number on that yet.

是的。我不知道我們是否有這些數據。再說一次，我們將在第四季採取一些措施。這將持續到明年，使用杜邦材料來取代我們自己購買的聚合物和其他材料。所以我認為我們目前還沒有一個確切的數字。

Yes, John, normal is different as we go forward because you're putting these 2 portfolios together. And so we're looking at what is the optimal mix. It's going to be different by region as well, depending on where our business has historically been from mainly a nylon standpoint. But we're really looking at how we can leverage the power really of both portfolios that we're bringing together right now.

是的，約翰，隨著我們未來的發展，情況會有所不同，因為你要把這兩個投資組合整合在一起。所以我們正在研究最佳組合。不同地區的情況也會有所不同，這取決於我們過去在尼龍領域的業務發展。但我們真正在思考的是如何真正利用我們目前整合的兩個投資組合的優勢。

Our next questions come from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Yes. Lori and Scott, you talked about acetyls and you always do a great job in managing the situation globally through utilization of different plants. A question on the Frankfurt plant. It's your highest cost, do you think there is a chance that it becomes a stranded asset? And what kind of headwinds do you expect in Europe, given your large footprint there in Europe as well as in Germany.

是的。 Lori 和 Scott，你們談到了乙醯基，你們透過利用不同的工廠，在全球範圍內出色地管理著情況。關於法蘭克福工廠的問題。這是你們成本最高的工廠，你們認為它有可能成為擱淺資產嗎？考慮到你們在歐洲和德國都擁有龐大的業務，你們預期歐洲會面臨哪些不利因素？

P.J., just a clarification. You're talking about the Frankfurt VAM plant or our palm plant?

P.J.，我來澄清一下。您說的是法蘭克福的VAM工廠還是我們的棕櫚工廠？

VAM plant. sorry.

VAM 植物。抱歉。

VAM, Okay. Thank you. I just want to be clear to answer the right question. Look, we have 5 VAM assets globally. Historically, Frankfurt has not been our highest cost plant. So let me just be clear on that. And even today, we could run it and it could run at a profit, but it's just volume we can get somewhere else more cheaply right now because of the very high prices that we have been seeing in terms of European energy and that, quite frankly, when it gets cold, we expect to see those prices again.

VAM，好的。謝謝。我只是想清楚地回答正確的問題。你看，我們在全球擁有5個VAM資產。從歷史上看，法蘭克福工廠並非我們成本最高的工廠。所以，讓我明確一下這一點。即使在今天，我們仍然可以運營它，並且可以盈利，但由於歐洲能源價格一直很高，我們現在可以從其他地方以更低的價格獲得產量，而且坦率地說，當天氣轉冷時，我們預計價格會再次上漲。

So I don't really see a possibility of it becoming a stranded asset. I mean it's only been about 3 months ago, we were running every single plant we had all out and still not able to meet the demand. So I do think demand is going to come back. And I think we will need all the plants we have. And Frankfurt VAM has always been a very profitable plant. This is just a unique situation with the European energy prices we're seeing, coupled with the fairly rapid drop in demand that we've seen because of other -- the geopolitical factors, the China COVID and then winterization kind of all coming together at the same time. So I don't really see any possibility that it becomes a stranded asset.

所以我真的不認為它會成為擱淺資產。我的意思是，就在大約三個月前，我們所有的工廠都開足馬力運轉，但仍然無法滿足需求。所以我認為需求會回升。而且我認為我們需要所有現有的工廠。法蘭克福VAM工廠一直是一家獲利能力很強的工廠。這只是一個特殊情況，我們看到歐洲能源價格上漲，再加上地緣政治因素、中國新冠疫情以及冬季防疫措施等其他因素共同作用導致的需求下降相當快。所以我真的不認為它會成為擱淺資產。

Yes, P.J., I would just add that this theme of the power of our network is very important, whether it's VAM, whether it's acetic acid, whether it's palm. And now as we bring M&M in, nylon, PBT, et cetera. We have created, we believe, a lot of value over time by flexing these networks and having those assets in Europe are great assets. And so bringing that concept and leveraging that as we bring these portfolios together with M&M is something that we're going to be working hard here in the fourth quarter to see how we want to operate as we get into next year for that business as well.

是的，P.J.，我想補充一點，我們網路的力量非常重要，無論是VAM、醋酸還是棕櫚油。現在，我們引進了M&M，包括尼龍、PBT等等。我們相信，透過靈活運用這些網絡，以及在歐洲擁有這些資產，我們隨著時間的推移創造了巨大的價值。因此，我們將在第四季度努力推廣這一理念，並在將這些投資組合與M&M整合在一起時充分利用這一優勢，看看明年我們該如何經營M&M業務。

Okay. And then secondly, you mentioned -- you made a lot of comments on M&M, and we appreciate that. One of the things you say in your prepared comments is that business had lagged in pricing since 2021. So maybe is there a onetime step-up in pricing that maybe we have underappreciated?

好的。其次，您提到—您對M&M發表了很多評論，我們對此表示感謝。您在準備好的評論中提到，自2021年以來，M&M的定價一直處於落後狀態。那麼，是否存在一次性的定價上漲，而我們可能低估了它的影響？

Yes. Look, I think -- and I talked a little bit about this earlier. I think their total pricing hasn't necessarily lagged. I think it's really distinguishing between the differentiated business where you had room to move pricing. And the more standard business where, in fact, we've seen a lot of price pressures from competitors where in fact, maybe it would have been better to take down pricing and not lose so much market share. So I think it's just a more fine-tuned approach to pricing that we want to take. I wouldn't necessarily say it just means prices will go up. It will really be about trying to maximize the margin dollar contribution versus any other signal.

是的。聽著，我認為──我之前也談過這一點。我認為他們的整體定價不一定落後。我認為這實際上區分了差異化業務和更標準的業務，差異化業務有調整定價的空間。事實上，我們已經看到來自競爭對手的許多價格壓力，也許降價會更好，這樣就不會損失太多的市場份額。所以我認為這只是我們想要採取的一種更精細的定價方法。我不會說這僅僅意味著價格會上漲。這實際上是為了努力最大化利潤貢獻，而不是其他任何訊號。

Our next questions come from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

I'm just trying to sort of get a better sense. I know it was asked earlier, of what you actually feel trough EBITDA would be? I mean I know that the guidance that you guys gave for Q4, obviously, a seasonally weak quarter. So obviously, Q4, one can sort of extrapolate that. To me, it just seems like Q3 was the worst of everything, right? I mean you had destocking, high sort of energy prices, be it in Europe and the like, acetic prices coming down as hard as they did. So I mean, is it fair to assume that the $600 and change million in quarterly EBITDA that you guys generated in Q3 is possibly the right run rate annualized number to think about in terms across EBITDA?

我只是想更好地理解一下。我知道之前有人問過，您覺得EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）會是多少？我的意思是，我知道你們給出的第四季業績指引，顯然是一個季節性疲軟的季度。所以，顯然，第四季可以推斷出這一點。在我看來，第三季度似乎是最糟糕的季度，對吧？我的意思是，你們經歷了去庫存化、能源價格高漲（例如歐洲等地），以及醋酸價格的大幅下跌。所以，是否可以假設，你們在第三季創造的6億美元季度EBITDA，可能是EBITDA的正確年化運行率數字？

Sorry, Hassan, I'm just trying to understand your question better. The $600 million and change in EBITDA for acetyls?

抱歉，Hassan，我只是想更好地理解你的問題。乙醯基化合物的EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）是6億美元嗎？

No, no, just -- I mean, overall as a company, what do you think your trough EBITDA number would be?

不，不，只是——我的意思是，作為一家公司，您認為您的最低 EBITDA 數字是多少？

I mean, I'll be honest with you, Hassan. I mean we really look at each environment differently. I mean troughs, recessions, et cetera. I mean, it's hard to put labels on different things. I mean at the end of the day, I think the -- what we stated, we're pushing towards to get super next year, just given the current conditions would suggest that somewhere in that Q3 range is probably somewhere close to that. But I think a lot -- every situation is different. It's really about making sure that we are managing the business on a daily basis to maximize earnings and maximize cash flow and value creation.

哈桑，說實話，我們對每個環境的看法確實不同。例如低谷、衰退等等。很難給不同的事情貼上標籤。歸根結底，我認為——我們之前說過，我們正在努力爭取明年實現超級業績，考慮到目前的情況，第三季的某個目標可能接近這個數字。但我認為，很多情況下——每種情況都不一樣。關鍵在於確保我們每天管理業務，以最大化收益、最大化現金流和價值創造。

Fair enough, fair enough. And now just moving on from that, more specific on the acetyl chain. You talked about pricing being around $400 a ton hitting sort of the cost curve side of things and the like. So 2 things. One is, are you in the industry seeing sort of shutdowns at these levels? That's the first part of it. The second part of it is that in your prepared remarks, you obviously talked about operating rates for you guys in China and Singapore being 50% to 70%, the emulsions business, reducing the tons sold by 15% and the like, yet your volumes, sequentially, were only down 4%. So just trying to reconcile that as well. So 2 parts. One, shutdown; and two, why your volumes weren't weaker than what your commentary suggested.

好吧，好吧。現在我們來談談乙醯基鏈的具體情況。您提到價格在每噸400美元左右，觸及了成本曲線之類的。所以有兩點要注意。第一，你們這個行業是否經歷過這種程度的停產？這是第一點。第二點，在您準備好的發言中，您顯然提到了你們在中國和新加坡的乳化劑業務的開工率在50%到70%之間，銷量減少了15%左右，但你們的銷量環比僅下降了4%。所以，我也想解釋一下這一點。所以有兩點要注意。第一，停產；第二，為什麼你們的銷售量沒有比你們之前評論的要低。

Yes. So I would say we saw the decline through the quarter. So the start of the quarter was actually at a much higher pricing. The average price for third -- or the average China assets for the third quarter was around $430 million and now we're down around $400 million. So we've continued to see pricing decline. So I'd say the start of the quarter was stronger than we started to see it pretty rapid. And I think that's why you didn't see the volumes drop so much. The actions we've taken to really cut our rates have happened here at the very end of the quarter and going into October. So I probably wasn't clear on that. And so I think that's why you don't see it as much in the volumes.

是的。所以我認為我們整個季度都看到了價格下滑。季度初的價格實際上要高得多。第三季中國資產的平均價格約為4.3億美元，現在下降了約4億美元。所以我們持續看到價格下滑。所以我認為季度初的表現比我們一開始看到的還要強勁，而且下滑速度相當快。我認為這就是為什麼交易量沒有下降那麼多的原因。我們真正降低利率的措施是在本季末和10月份採取的。所以我可能沒有明確說明這一點。我認為這也是為什麼交易量沒有下降那麼多的原因。

But again, around $400 million. To your first question, though, I would say we have seen others take actions to slow down as we have, but not yet to shut down. But given that this pricing. I mean we are still the most economic producer of acetic acid in China. We know this is at the cost curve. So we know others are struggling. I think given if this goes on longer, you may see people continue to slow down rates or shut down, even if only temporarily.

但同樣，大約4億美元。不過，關於你的第一個問題，我想說，我們已經看到其他人像我們一樣採取了減產措施，但還沒有停產。但考慮到目前的定價。我的意思是，我們仍然是中國最經濟的醋酸生產商。我們知道這是成本曲線。所以我們知道其他人也在苦苦掙扎。我認為，如果這種情況持續下去，你可能會看到人們繼續減產或停產，即使只是暫時的。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH.

我們的下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matthew Blair。

Lori, you mentioned that in autos, your build rates are outpacing industry averages, especially in North America and Europe. Could you talk about your total autos build rate and how that compares to global averages and overall, the reception that you're getting with EV penetration.

Lori，你提到在汽車領域，你們的生產速度超過了行業平均水平，尤其是在北美和歐洲。您能否談談你們的汽車總生產速度，以及與全球平均相比如何？此外，你們在電動車普及率的整體表現如何？

Yes. I think -- so on autos, I think IHS thought we're at 6% growth rate. We have seen -- we think it's a little bit less than that. But I think we have outpaced auto bills pretty significantly across all of our businesses. I'm trying to remember the number off the top of my head. But let me answer the EV question first.

是的。我認為——就汽車業務而言，IHS 認為我們的成長率是 6%。我們看到——我們認為實際成長率略低於這個數字。但我認為我們所有業務的成長率都遠遠超過了汽車業務的成長率。我正在努力記住這個數字。不過，讓我先回答一下企業價值的問題。

So EV, we're about -- for the legacy EM business, we're more than 10% of our volume into auto that goes into EV. And obviously, from a value standpoint, it's much higher than that because these tend to be high in applications. The majority of that is lithium-ion battery separator films, so GUR, which is what we will see margin expansion in next year because it is sold out and limited.

就電動車而言，就傳統的電子元件業務而言，我們超過10%的產量來自電動車相關的汽車零件。顯然，從價值角度來看，這個數字要高得多，因為這些產品的應用範圍往往很廣。其中大部分是鋰離子電池隔膜，也就是GUR，由於其銷售量已售罄且數量有限，我們明年的利潤率將有所提升。

You compare that for the industry, EVs make up about 8.5% of the fleet of the build today. So even just in the EV space, we're several percent higher than the rest of the industry. And then -- and as I said, everywhere else, we see that we continue to outpace the industry. So industry growth rate, just given -- so Europe was down in the third quarter. North America was up a bit. We were a bit better in both of those than the industry. And in Asia, I think, maybe to give you an idea, Asia saw strong industry growth, about 21% in Asia, 30% in China.

相比之下，電動車目前約佔汽車總數的8.5%。因此，即使僅在電動車領域，我們也比行業其他領域高出幾個百分點。正如我所說，在其他領域，我們繼續領先於行業。考慮到產業成長率，歐洲第三季有所下降，而北美略有成長。我們在這兩個領域的表現都略優於同業平均。至於亞洲，我想，或許可以給大家一個大概的印象，亞洲的產業成長強勁，約21%，中國約30%。

And with the additional volume from KEPCO, the growth in EVs, the project pipeline, the GUR expansion, the stuff we've done on Asia localization, we were up well, really 27% globally. A lot of that in Asia and all of our regions were up about 20% versus last year. And again, we think that's on chip availability, but it also shows the strength of our project pipeline and our portfolio and the fact that we tend to be stronger in EV and stronger into high-end applications, which have not been as challenged as maybe some of the other models.

由於韓國電力公司（KEPCO）的額外銷量、電動車業務的成長、項目儲備、GUR 的擴張以及我們在亞洲本地化方面所做的努力，我們在全球範圍內實現了良好的增長，實際增長了 27%。其中，亞洲以及我們所有地區的成長都比去年同期成長了約 20%。我們認為這主要得益於晶片的可用性，但也反映了我們專案儲備和產品組合的實力，以及我們在電動車和高端應用領域表現更強勁的事實，這些領域可能不像其他一些車型那樣面臨挑戰。

Daryl, we'll go ahead and make the next question our last one, please.

達裡爾，我們繼續，下一個問題是我們的最後一個問題。

Our final question is coming from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

As we look at the cadence for M&M of next year, you'd kind of mentioned a fairly sharp inventory correction that's working through the pipe. Do you expect that will continue into next year and I guess how much of this $800 million do you think will come from second half earnings versus first half earnings if we try to think about the arc for that business?

當我們展望明年M&M的節奏時，您提到了庫存調整的幅度相當大，目前正逐步顯現。您預計這種情況會持續到明年嗎？如果我們試著思考該業務的發展軌跡，您認為這8億美元中有多少將來自下半年的收益，有多少來自上半年的收益？

Yes. I think, look, just given the time it takes -- we start actions immediately. These are already started and -- but all of these things take some time. And so I would definitely expect the heritage M&M business earnings to be more heavily back-end loaded in the year than in the first part of the year just to give us time to kind of work through the changes we need to do, get all of the commercial teams coming from M&M onto the pipeline model, which will be happening in here across the first quarter. Definitely more of a second half load than first half.

是的。我想，考慮到時間因素——我們會立即採取行動。這些工作已經開始了——但所有這些都需要一些時間。因此，我預計傳統M&M業務的獲利在年底會比上半年承受更大的壓力，以便我們有時間完成需要做的改變，讓所有來自M&M的商業團隊都融入到通路模式中，這將在第一季完成。下半年的負荷肯定比上半年更大。

Yes. And the inventory pull down likely more first half, Matthew, as we work to get that material into the legacy Celanese assets.

是的。馬修，庫存下降的幅度可能在上半年更大，因為我們正在努力將這些材料整合到塞拉尼斯的現有資產中。

Understood. And I guess, if I could just squeeze one more in. In the past, you talked about rationalizing foreign capacity on the start-up of Clear Lake, but that talk kind of waned. And I wasn't sure if that was because the macro was better or you had rewritten some of the raw material contracts in Singapore. So I guess with the macro where it is, should we think about rationalizing foreign capacity as still on the table? And if it's not, are the productivity savings of the $100 million still reasonable if the macro remains soft?

明白了。我想，如果我能再插播一句。過去，您談到在Clear Lake計畫啟動時要合理化海外產能，但後來這種說法逐漸消失了。我不確定這是因為宏觀經濟狀況好轉了，還是因為您在新加坡重新簽訂了一些原料合約。所以，我想，鑑於目前的宏觀經濟情勢，我們是否應該繼續考慮合理化海外產能？如果不是，那麼，如果宏觀經濟仍然疲軟，那麼1億美元的生產力節約是否仍然合理？

Yes. Look, let me start with the last question first. The productivity of $100 million is still stable even in a softer macro. It was really based on running 2 units not quite as full, it had capital savings and other things in it. So that continues to exist. We didn't need any growth, and we will always run Clear Lake more full due to the raw material advantages there. So I don't think the project credits associated with the Clear Lake expansion are not at risk, again, because they were based on productivity. As I said earlier, if we see an upswing in the market and we can run it even fuller, that's just actually additional credits that we'll get at that time.

是的。聽著，我先從最後一個問題開始。即使在宏觀經濟疲軟的情況下，1億美元的生產力仍然穩定。這其實是基於兩套產能未滿載運轉的裝置，這套裝置節省了資本，也帶來了其他好處。所以這種情況會持續下去。我們不需要任何成長，而且由於Clear Lake擁有原料優勢，我們將繼續以更高的產能運作該裝置。因此，我認為與Clear Lake擴建相關的專案信用額度不會面臨風險，因為它們是基於生產力的。正如我之前所說，如果我們看到市場回暖，我們可以更充分地運行該裝置，那麼這實際上只是我們屆時將獲得的額外信用額度。

And in terms of the global footprint, and we talked about this, gosh, probably over a year ago or so we really -- with the change in the contracts we've got in the Singapore utilities, other contracts that we have in China, we like having optionality. That optionality to move things around, depending on what's going on to accommodate or when we have turnarounds and those sorts of things by shifting production to other parts of the world, that has more than paid off for us. And so we like having that optionality in our footprint. So I wouldn't expect any major changes in that going forward.

就全球佈局而言，我們大概一年前就討論過這個問題，天哪，我們真的……隨著我們與新加坡公用事業公司簽訂的合約以及我們在中國簽訂的其他合約的變化，我們喜歡擁有自主選擇權。這種自主選擇權可以根據情況調整，或者當我們需要周轉時，將生產轉移到世界其他地區，這對我們來說是一筆豐厚的回報。所以，我們喜歡在我們的佈局中擁有這種自主選擇權。因此，我預計未來不會有任何重大變化。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Brandon Ayache for any closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。現在我想把電話轉回給布蘭登·阿亞什，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you, Daryl. We'd like to thank everybody for listening in today. As always, we're around if you have any follow-up questions. Daryl, Please go ahead and close out the call.

謝謝達裡爾。感謝各位今天的收聽。像往常一樣，如果您有任何後續問題，我們隨時歡迎您。達裡爾，請繼續，結束本次通話。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy your weekend.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。祝您週末愉快。