塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Celanese's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to Brandon Ayache, Vice President, Investor Relations.

大家好！歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2021年第四季財報電話會議及網路直播。 （操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。現在，我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁Brandon Ayache。

Thank you, Rob. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，Rob。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2021年第四季業績電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁布蘭登‧阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache)。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官洛里·賴爾克 (Lori Ryerkerk) 和首席財務官斯科特·理查森 (Scott Richardson)。

Celanese Corporation distributed its fourth quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

塞拉尼斯公司昨天下午透過商業電訊發布了其第四季度收益報告，並在投資者關係網站上發布了有關該季度的準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as the prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的簡報還將包含前瞻性陳述。請閱讀新聞稿末尾關於前瞻性陳述的警示性措辭以及準備好的評論。包含所有這些資料的8-K表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

Because we published our remarks yesterday, we'll go ahead and open the line for questions. Rob, please go ahead and open the line.

由於我們昨天已經發表了講話，所以我們現在開始開放提問環節。羅布，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

You mentioned you're not expecting another shutdown at Nanjing or any disruptions from the Olympics. Do you think China can get from a 0 COVID strategy to an endemic COVID environment like the U.S. and Europe without a lot more disruptions?

您提到您預計南京不會再次停工，奧運會也不會造成任何干擾。您認為中國能否在不造成更多幹擾的情況下，從「零新冠」戰略轉變為像美國和歐洲那樣的「地方性新冠疫情」環境？

That's an interesting question, John. We're really not -- we said we weren't expecting any disruptions. It was really around energy curtailments or things like we saw in the October time frame. Also with Chinese New Year then Beijing a little bit differently than we've seen prior to 2020, we're not seeing as many total shutdowns during that period as China worries about their economy and wants to see recovery. So we've modeled in only mild seasonality across our businesses for Chinese New Year and for the Olympics.

約翰，這個問題很有趣。我們真的沒有——我們說過我們預計不會有任何中斷。這主要是因為能源限制，或者像我們在10月份看到的那種情況。此外，由於中國擔心經濟，並希望看到復甦，春節期間我們並沒有看到那麼多的全面停工。因此，我們只模擬了春節和奧運期間我們業務的輕微季節性變化。

The COVID question is an interesting one. I'd say COVID seems well under control in China, at least from officially reported. But we would also say our experience and our plans and our offices is COVID is under control. And I think you've seen some recent comments by the Chinese government where they are starting to back away from their 0 COVID strategy and more towards managing endemic.

關於新冠疫​​情的問題很有意思。我想說，至少從官方報道來看，中國的新冠疫情似乎得到了很好的控制。但我們也要說，根據我們的經驗、計畫和辦公室，新冠疫情已經得到控制。我想你已經看到了中國政府最近的一些言論，他們開始放棄「零新冠」策略，轉而更加重視地方疫情的管理。

So I do believe, I think the outcome of all of what I've just said is I -- my personal belief is that we will see a fairly smooth transition in China as they go as is much of the rest of the world towards more of managing the endemic versus sticking with their 0 COVID policy.

所以我確實相信，我認為我剛才所說的一切的結果是——我個人認為，我們將看到中國像世界其他大部分地區一樣，朝著管理地方疫情而不是堅持 0 COVID 政策的方向平穩過渡。

Okay. And could you talk a little bit about the M&A outlook? Santoprene appears off to a good start. And -- but what are the areas of Celanese that you're most interested in expanding? Is it another polymer like Santoprene? Or is it maybe something in Asia after the Polyplastics transaction? Or maybe something in chemicals like the redispersible polymers deal you did?

好的。能談談併購前景嗎？山都平似乎開局不錯。但是，您最想拓展塞拉尼斯的哪些領域呢？是像山都平這樣的其他聚合物嗎？還是在收購寶理塑膠後在亞洲的業務？又或者是像您收購可再分散聚合物那樣的化學領域？

Yes. So with Santoprene, we are really excited about Santoprene. The transition went really well over December. Even just 1 month in, we're already starting to see delivery from synergies that are ahead of schedule. We're excited about what we see from the product and where we see the possibilities for cross-selling as well as new applications for Santoprene. And of course, we're really excited about not just the assets we acquired, but the people we acquired and the great job that they've done really coming into Celanese and becoming part of the Celanese family. So you're right, Santoprene, we think, has been a great success so far. And we anticipate it just gets better from here. And makes us excited about future M&A as well and our ability to continue to do larger and larger M&A.

是的。我們對Santoprene感到非常興奮。 12月份的過渡非常順利。即使短短一個月，我們已經開始看到綜效帶來的成果，而且比計畫提早了。我們對產品的表現、交叉銷售的可能性以及Santoprene的新應用感到興奮。當然，我們不僅對收購的資產感到興奮，也對收購的人才感到興奮，他們加入塞拉尼斯，成為塞拉尼斯大家庭的一員，並做出了傑出的貢獻。所以你說得對，我們認為Santoprene迄今為止取得了巨大的成功。我們預計它會越來越好。這也讓我們對未來的併購以及我們繼續進行更大規模併購的能力感到興奮。

In answer to your question about what type of M&A, I would say, yes, we are looking at everything that you mentioned. We're looking at additional polymers, a different additional geography. We are looking at acquisitions across both Engineered Materials and the Acetyl Chain. So I would say our lens is still fairly wide open in terms of the types of M&A that we would consider in terms of size, all the way from bolt-on to transformational.

關於您關於併購類型的問題，我的回答是，是的，我們正在考慮您提到的所有情況。我們正在考慮其他聚合物，以及不同的地域。我們正在考慮工程材料和乙醯基產業鏈的收購。所以，我想說，就規模而言，我們的併購類型選擇仍然相當廣泛，從補強型到轉型型，應有盡有。

So we think it's quite an exciting time for us for M&A. Not only do we still have the financial capability to do a significant amount of M&A, but we also believe we have the management and employee bandwidth and capability, and again, especially with some of the acquisitions we've done with Elotex and Santoprene, bringing in even more talent to take on additional M&A going forward.

所以，我們認為現在對我們來說，併購業務正處於一個令人興奮的時刻。我們不僅仍然擁有進行大量併購的財務能力，而且我們相信，我們擁有足夠的管理和員工資源和能力。而且，尤其是在我們完成對Elotex和Santoprene的收購後，我們能夠吸引更多人才，在未來承接更多併購業務。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In your script describing M&A, you said that you were considering a wide range of opportunities within your desired investment-grade rating. Does that indicate that your acquisition aspirations are more modest rather than transformative?

您在描述併購的腳本中提到，您正在考慮您期望的投資等級評級範圍內的多種機會。這是否表示您的收購目標較為溫和，而非具有變革意義？

I wouldn't make that assumption, Jeff. If you look at our actual financial capability, if you look at cash -- the free cash flow we had this year at $1.3 billion, next year, we'll be at $1.4 billion, if you look at our cash flow, we actually think we have a very large capacity to take on debt. We're very low levered right now. We could take on significant debt. And we could take on -- with the cash flow we have, we could pay off that debt. So I wouldn't say that means our ambitions are modest. I'd say, actually, we're in the best time in our history to actually take on any range of M&A and still do it within our investment-grade rating.

傑夫，我不會做這樣的假設。如果你看看我們實際的財務能力，看看我們的現金流——我們今年的自由現金流是13億美元，明年會達到14億美元——看看我們的現金流，我們實際上認為我們有非常強大的債務承擔能力。我們目前的槓桿率很低。我們可以承擔巨額債務。而且，憑藉我們現有的現金流，我們完全可以償還這些債務。所以我不會說我們的目標不高。實際上，我認為我們正處於歷史上最好的時期，可以承擔各種類型的併購，並且仍然保持在投資級評級之內。

Our next question is from the line of Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲‧菲舍爾 (Duffy Fischer)。

First question is just on the Acetyl Chain. When you look at the different steps from acetic acid down to VAM and some of the other derivatives, where do you see the supply demand being the tightest over the next couple of years? And where do you think either you or the industry might make some announcements around new capacity in that chain over the next couple of years?

第一個問題是關於乙醯基鏈的。從乙酸到醋酸乙烯酯（VAM）以及其他一些衍生物的各個生產環節來看，您認為未來幾年哪個環節的供需最為緊張？您認為未來幾年，您或整個產業可能會宣布哪些環節的新增產能？

I would say the entire view of the chain is pretty tight right now. Just look at utilization, acetic acid had been pretty close to 100%. Now that did moderate a little bit in the fourth quarter, but still 85% to 90% utilization in acetic acid. We see that being about the same this quarter and maybe tightening a little bit as we go through the year. But we do have some new capacity coming on sometime in the next few months with the second phase of Huayi Guangxi.

我想說，目前整個產業鏈都相當緊張。看看利用率，醋酸的利用率曾經非常接近100%。雖然第四季利用率略有下降，但仍維持在85%到90%之間。我們預計本季的利用率大致相同，並且隨著全年的推移，可能會略有收緊。不過，隨著華誼廣西二期計畫的投產，未來幾個月我們確實會有一些新的產能投入使用。

VAM is very tight. I would say VAM has been around 100% utilization for some time now. It was a little bit better in the fourth quarter. But again, in the first quarter, we see it being really tight again as we have some outages, especially in China, for turnarounds as well as some maintenance downtime. So I think VAM is going to continue to be very tight. We've announced some expansions in VAM. There's been a few other ones, but I think the demand in VAM continues to grow quite rapidly.

VAM 非常緊張。我想說，VAM 的利用率已經維持在 100% 左右了一段時間。第四季的情況略有好轉。但在第一季度，我們再次發現 VAM 非常緊張，因為我們有一些停機，尤其是在中國，用於檢修和維護停機。所以我認為 VAM 的供應會持續非常緊張。我們已經宣布了一些 VAM 的擴展計劃。還有其他一些計劃，但我認為 VAM 的需求將繼續快速增長。

And then if you go into our downstream products like emulsions and RDP, I would say the demand is huge right now. There's some really interesting things happening in the market now around increased energy efficiency requirements. And we make some systems that are made of -- if you think about kind of 5 layers of emulsions and RDP powders to make thermal insulation systems for putting on the externals of buildings. And so especially in Europe, we're just seeing a demand, quite frankly, that the industry can't keep up with right now. So I'd say those utilization rates are definitely at 100% and staying that way.

如果你看看我們下游產品，例如乳液和可再分散乳膠粉（RDP），我會說現在的需求非常巨大。目前市場上圍繞著提高能源效率要求出現了一些非常有趣的現象。我們生產一些由五層乳液和可再分散乳膠粉組成的系統，用於製造建築物外牆的隔熱系統。因此，尤其是在歐洲，坦白說，我們看到了該行業目前無法滿足的需求。所以我認為這些設備的利用率肯定達到了100%，並且會一直維持下去。

So I do think we'll see some expansion. I think as we've called out before, acetic acid, any major expansions will take a while. We're at least 4 to 5 years out from any other expansions there. Other than our old Clear Lake capacity that will come on first half of 2022 -- 2023, sorry, I get the wrong -- right year, 2023. And I think we called out some VAM expansions. We've called out some VAE expansions. We're making -- we are looking to expand RDP as well. And I suspect we'll see others in the industry doing so, but I will say it's still into a very tight market. And I think this is a market -- these are markets that will all continue to be very tight for the next, I'm going to say, at least 4 to 5 years.

所以我確實認為我們會看到一些擴張。正如我們之前提到的，醋酸的任何大規模擴張都需要一段時間。我們距離那裡的任何其他擴張至少還有4到5年的時間來推進。除了我們舊的Clear Lake產能將於2022年上半年到2023年（抱歉，我記錯了）投產之外，年份應該是2023年。而且，我們之前也宣布了一些VAM（醋酸乙烯酯）的擴張計畫。我們也宣布了一些VAE（醋酸乙烯酯）的擴張計畫。我們正在－我們也在考慮－擴大RDP（醋酸乙烯酯）的生產。我估計我們會看到業內其他公司也這樣做，但我要說的是，市場仍然非常緊張。而且我認為，這些市場在未來至少4到5年都會繼續非常緊張。

Great. And then maybe as a follow-up, since you get at acetic acid from kind of all 3 of the carbon starting points, can you talk about what's happening to the cost curve for acetic acid with all the different energy price moves we've seen in the last half year? What will '22 look like different than '21 from a cost curve standpoint?

太好了。接下來，既然您從三個碳起點來計算乙酸，您能否談談，在過去半年中，隨著能源價格的波動，乙酸的成本曲線發生了哪些變化？從成本曲線的角度來看，2022年與2021年相比會有什麼不同？

I think if you look at the last year, we've seen everything go up. I mean natural gas has gone up, including in the Gulf Coast of the U.S. Coal has gone up in China. Oil has clearly gone up. And so although everything has gone up, and with that, we've seen methanol prices going up, I would also say it hasn't changed the relative order of attractiveness.

我認為，如果你回顧去年，我們可以看到所有東西都在上漲。我的意思是，天然氣價格上漲了，包括美國墨西哥灣沿岸的天然氣價格。中國的煤炭價格上漲了。石油價格也明顯上漲了。所以，儘管所有東西都在上漲，甲醇價格也隨之上漲，但我還要說，這並沒有改變吸引力的相對順序。

U.S. Gulf Coast natural gas, even at $6, a million Btu as we saw during times in the fourth quarter, is still the most attractive source of raw materials for acetic acid. Coal, oil kind of stay almost in parity, and it goes back and forth. But I'd say they're about the same usually and -- but still significantly more expensive than acetic acid. So I don't really see the priority. I mean Gulf Coast production remains the priority, followed by the Nanjing and Singapore for us. And I don't really see that changing.

即使像我們在第四季看到的那樣，美國墨西哥灣沿岸天然氣的價格達到每百萬英熱單位6美元，它仍然是醋酸最具吸引力的原料來源。煤炭和石油的價格基本上持平，價格上下波動。但我認為它們通常價格差不多，而且——但仍然比醋酸貴得多。所以我認為它不是優先考慮的。我的意思是，墨西哥灣沿岸的生產仍然是我們的優先考慮，其次是南京和新加坡。我認為這種情況不會改變。

And I think what that means is, even with higher natural gas prices, because the marginal capacity in acetic acid is coming out of China, which is coal priced, you'll continue to see prices that support good margins in the Acetyl Chain as we go forward over the next few years.

我認為這意味著，即使天然氣價格上漲，由於乙酸的邊際產能來自中國，其價格與煤炭相當，因此在未來幾年內，你將繼續看到乙酸鏈中良好的利潤率價格。

Yes. Duffy, the only thing to add is I think what has changed from a relative basis is freight and logistics costs. And with our network of having the 3 assets, that just gives us the ability to really be well positioned to meet customer needs around the world. So while the cost for others has moved up who only have 1 plant, our network just gives us a nice advantage there to take advantage of the fact that those logistics costs have moved up pretty rapidly.

是的。達菲，我唯一想補充的是，我認為相對而言變化的是運費和物流成本。憑藉我們擁有三大資產的網絡，我們能夠真正更好地滿足全球客戶的需求。因此，雖然其他只有一家工廠的公司成本上漲了，但我們的網路讓我們擁有了很大的優勢，能夠利用這些物流成本快速上漲的優勢。

Next question is from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

This is actually Mike sitting in for Bob this morning. And I was wondering, in your prepared comments, you kind of talked about an expectation of acetyl industry pricing moderating in the first quarter. I was wondering if you could give us perhaps maybe a bit more color around the magnitude of moderation you may be baking into your guide.

今天上午，我是麥克代替鮑伯發言。我想問一下，在您準備好的評論中，您提到了乙醯基行業價格預期在第一季會有所緩和。您能否再詳細介紹一下您在指南中可能納入的緩和幅度。

Sure. Look, we call out moderation in the first quarter and really throughout the remainder of this year, really assuming we don't see the amount of supply disruption that we had in this year. I mean this year, between the freeze and -- the freeze, some large turnarounds in the U.S. in particular, then the curtailment in China in October, we had quite a lot of disruption in the supply chain for acetic acid. And with that, it tends to keep prices higher with the uncertainty that's out there, on top of what's been very robust demand for acetic acid and Acetyl Chain products this year.

當然。你看，我們預計第一季以及今年剩餘時間的供應將有所緩和，前提是不會出現像今年這樣嚴重的供應中斷。我的意思是，今年，在凍產和凍產之間——尤其是美國的一些大規模產能調整，以及10月份中國產量的減產，醋酸供應鏈出現了相當嚴重的中斷。因此，由於市場存在不確定性，再加上今年醋酸和乙醯鏈產品的需求非常強勁，價格往往會維持在高位。

So as we go into 2022, and we saw it in the fourth quarter, we saw after the peak in October, driven by the curtailments in China and kind of more the perception of the curtailments in China, we saw a very rapid moderation through November and December, and we expect that. First quarter is actually probably kind of flattish with where we ended the year. But then we do expect further curtailment as we go through the rest of the year, assuming no big supply disruptions. Obviously, if we get into a period where we have major supply disruptions, we could see some price support again for higher acetic acid prices. But that is the basis for our assumptions this year.

因此，當我們進入2022年時，我們在第四季度就看到了這種情況。受中國減產以及人們對中國減產的認知的影響，10月份產量達到高峰之後，11月和12月出現了非常迅速的放緩，我們預計會出現這種情況。第一季的產量實際上可能與年底持平。但我們預計，如果沒有大規模供應中斷，今年剩餘時間產量將進一步下降。顯然，如果出現大規模供應中斷，醋酸價格可能會再次獲得支撐。但這是我們今年假設的基礎。

Okay. And then just as a quick follow-up, if memory serves me, there typically is like a seasonal, I guess, rebound in pricing in kind of that second, third quarter. Do you anticipate that? Or do you see the moderation continuing through what has historically been a seasonal rebound?

好的。然後，簡單跟進一下，如果我沒記錯的話，通常情況下，價格在第二季或第三季會出現季節性反彈。您預計會出現這種情況嗎？或者，您認為這種溫和趨勢會持續下去，就像歷史上的季節性反彈一樣？

What I would say, Mike, is usually, we see a seasonal softening around Chinese New Year as production -- as consumers are shut down in China during that period of time and a lot of factories shut down for a couple of weeks so folks get vacation. We're really -- we're not pretty much of that in our forecast for first quarter because we're -- we have a minor amount of seasonality that we put in first quarter. So as a result of not seeing much seasonality in first quarter, I wouldn't expect much rebound in second quarter and third quarter just because we've not baked in much of a dip in the first quarter.

麥克，我想說的是，通常情況下，我們會在農曆新年前後看到季節性疲軟，因為中國消費者在這段時間會停工，很多工廠也會停工幾週，以便人們休假。我們在第一季的預測中並沒有考慮到太多這樣的情況，因為我們在第一季考慮了一點季節性因素。因此，由於第一季沒有看到太多季節性因素，我預計第二季和第三季也不會出現太大的反彈，因為第一季的跌幅並沒有太大。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Lori, just curious, in the third quarter prepared remarks, you talked about '23, and I know '23 is more of a guideline versus specific guidance at this point. But do you still feel good about sort of that $15 in '23 and growth beyond that?

洛里，我只是好奇，在第三季的準備發言中，你提到了“23”，我知道“23”目前更像是一個指導方針，而不是具體的指導。但是，你對23年15美元左右的盈利以及之後的增長仍然感到滿意嗎？

We do, Mike. We've called out greater than $15 EPS this year. And for those of you who've done the math, you probably realize that our numbers, if you add them up, come a little bit closer to $16 if you look at the call -- what we've called out for individual businesses. Look, we're just trying to be prudent with the $15. We're feeling good about 2022 and what we see there. If conditions continue to [exist] and we start seeing improvement in supply chain and some of those things, obviously, our number could move well above $15 for 2022. And therefore, even with more moderation in Acetyl in '23, offset by growth in Engineered Materials in '23, we feel really good at that greater than $15 number for 2023 and for the years beyond.

是的，麥克。我們今年的每股盈餘超過了15美元。算過帳的朋友們可能已經注意到，如果把我們的數字加起來，看看我們為各個業務設定的每股盈餘預測，會更接近16美元。你看，我們只是盡量謹慎地使用15美元。我們對2022年以及未來幾年的業績感到樂觀。如果情況持續下去，我們開始看到供應鏈等相關方面有所改善，那麼顯然，2022年的每股盈餘可能會遠遠超過15美元。因此，即使2023年乙醯基業務的成長速度有所放緩，但被工程材料業務的成長所抵消，我們對2023年及以後超過15美元的業績仍然充滿信心。

Got it. And then I guess for EM, you're looking for another -- for a good year in organic volume growth again. Any changes to your sort of view on auto? I think it did come in a little bit better, as you noted in the fourth quarter? And how does that affect your outlook for -- or how is that embedded in your outlook for '22?

明白了。我想，對於新興市場，您期待有機銷售再次迎來一個好年。您對汽車產業的看法有什麼改變嗎？我認為汽車行業確實有所好轉，正如您在第四季度提到的那樣？這會如何影響您對2022年的展望？或者說，這會如何影響您對2022年的展望？

Yes. Great question. Really, for automotive, I would say Q4 didn't come back as strongly in automotive as most of the tiers and other people predicted. It did come back a little bit in Q4, but not nearly to the extent we expected. I mean, if you just look at Q4 of this year, it's still well below Q4 of 2020. So there's still a lot of recovery to come in auto.

是的，問得好。說實話，就汽車行業而言，我認為第四季度的復甦並不像大多數行業和其他人士預測的那樣強勁。第四季確實有所回升，但遠未達到我們預期的水平。我的意思是，如果只看今年第四季的數據，它仍然遠低於2020年第四季。所以，汽車產​​業未來還有很長的復甦空間。

Now we are not -- in our modeling, we're not projecting as much recovery in auto as maybe IHS is. So if IHS is right, which we hope they are, that will be additional upside for us. We're assuming actually auto volumes are pretty flat in 2022 versus 2021. Now we continue to increase content into auto. So our sales in auto continue to go up, but we are projecting fairly flat total auto builds. But again, there's -- that leaves us upside if we do see auto coming back more strongly like IHS is predicting.

現在我們還沒有——在我們的模型中，我們預測汽車產業的復甦幅度可能不如IHS那麼大。所以，如果IHS的預測正確（我們希望如此），那對我們來說將是一個額外的利好。我們假設2022年的汽車銷售量與2021年相比基本上持平。現在我們繼續增加汽車領域的內容。因此，我們的汽車銷售量持續成長，但我們預測汽車總產量將基本持平。不過，如果我們真的看到汽車產業像IHS預測的那樣強勁復甦，那我們仍然有上漲空間。

Next question from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Lori, maybe just picking up on the comments on China. As you sort of think about 4Q and the acetic acid and VAM pricing [path] that you referenced in your prepared comments in the region, is that just -- I mean, realizing there's a lot going on, is that just a function of the economy having slowed in China with real estate, et cetera, and that continues in the first quarter?

洛里，也許我只是想順便談談你對中國的評論。你剛才在準備好的評論中提到了第四季度以及該地區醋酸和VAM的定價路徑，這是否只是——我的意思是，考慮到有很多事情正在發生，這是否只是中國經濟放緩（包括房地產等）的結果，並且這種情況在第一季度仍在繼續？

And then just your view in terms of the recent stimulus measures that have been announced in the country, how do you see that sort of playing forward for Celanese beyond the first quarter? You've given very specific guidance for 1Q, but just on the Acetyl Chain beyond that would be helpful as well.

那麼，就國家近期宣布的刺激措施而言，您認為這些措施對塞拉尼斯第一季後的業績有何影響？您已經給出了非常具體的第一季業績指引，但關於乙醯基鏈業務的後續發展，您也希望能夠提供一些幫助。

Yes. If we go back to fourth quarter, it was really an interesting phenomenon. If you look, in October, we saw coal prices run up due to some geopolitical things that were going on. With that, we saw methanol pricing run up. And with that -- and then we had the curtailments being announced in China. And I think there was a huge concern that acetic acid plants, VAM plants were going to shut down. And so we saw price shoot up to $1,300 per metric ton.

是的。回顧第四季度，這確實是一個有趣的現象。 10月份，由於一些地緣政治因素，煤炭價格上漲。隨之而來的是甲醇價格的上漲。之後，中國又宣布了減產措施。我認為當時人們非常擔心醋酸工廠和VAM工廠會關閉。因此，我們看到價格飆升至每噸1300美元。

That was a very short impact though. It's kind of a 1-week phenomenon. And then when people realized not much acetic acid was being shut down, we saw acetic acid prices come down back to that $850 and then even into the $750 range as we moved into the end of the year. Now that's still a good pricing for acetic acid.

不過，那影響很短暫，大概持續了一週。後來，當人們意識到醋酸停產不多時，我們看到醋酸價格回落到850美元，甚至在年底跌至750美元左右。現在對醋酸來說，這仍然是一個不錯的價格。

We haven't really seen much softening in demand in China. So despite the things we read about the economy, the construction slowdown, we haven't seen much softening in demand in China. And that's why we're saying really for first quarter, we think we're probably going to be fairly steady at about that same range of level that we saw at the end of the fourth quarter. And I think as we go through the rest of the year, we're calling out moderation. And again, we're just calling that out on assuming supply stabilizes throughout the world and the supply chain and demand remains fairly steady. And that really is our outlook for China.

我們其實並沒有看到中國需求大幅疲軟。所以，儘管我們了解到一些關於經濟、建築業放緩的消息，但我們並沒有看到中國需求大幅疲軟。這就是為什麼我們說，第一季的經濟成長可能會相當穩定，大致與第四季末的水平持平。我認為，在今年剩餘時間裡，我們會呼籲經濟放緩。我們再次強調，我們只是假設全球供應趨於穩定，供應鏈和需求保持相當穩定。這確實是我們對中國的展望。

To your further question, even at slower economic growth, a lot of that is coming in high tech. It's coming in more social media platforms and things like that, that China is intentionally wanting to shut down. We're seeing China clamp down a little bit on real estate and some of the speculative stuff that was going on in China. But we're not seeing much impact on industrial. We're not seeing much impact on consumer demand. And we're not seeing much impact even on a lot of the construction segments that we're in, like people redoing buildings and adding insulation and all those sorts of things. So our outlook is still pretty robust for China throughout the entirety of the year in 2022.

關於你的進一步問題，即使經濟成長放緩，許多成長也來自高科技領域。它出現在更多社交媒體平台之類的平台上，而中國正有意關閉這些平台。我們看到中國對房地產和一些投機活動進行了一定程度的打擊。但我們沒有看到工業領域受到太大影響。我們也沒有看到消費需求受到太大影響。甚至我們涉足的許多建築領域，例如人們重建建築物、增加隔熱層等等，也沒有看到太大影響。因此，我們對中國2022年全年的前景仍然相當樂觀。

Very helpful. And then on the EM margins, down somewhere between 500 and 600 basis points below '18 and -- sorry, yes, '18 and '19 levels. I know the mix has changed a bit. But is the prior high watermark still realistic sort of pro forma for the acquisitions, including Santoprene?

非常有幫助。然後，新興市場的利潤率比2018年下降了500到600個基點——抱歉，是的，比2018年和2019年的水平低了。我知道組合情況有所改變。但先前的高水位線對於包括Santoprene在內的收購來說，是否仍是現實的預測？

Yes. I'd say, look, our expectations for acquisitions is the same. Just given the nature of the business, when we got Santoprene, we came in with a little bit lower margins. But we're very confident that as we work through the year, as we see recovery in auto, as we have the chance to take commercial actions around pricing and other things with Santoprene, that we'll be able to get them up to the expectations we have for the rest of our business. And that would be our expectations for any other acquisitions that we look at, that we get back to similar levels of margins.

是的。我想說，我們對收購的預期是一樣的。考慮到業務性質，收購Santoprene時，我們的利潤率略低一些。但我們非常有信心，隨著今年汽車行業的復甦，隨著我們有機會就Santoprene的定價和其他方面採取商業行動，我們一定能夠使其達到我們對其他業務的預期。我們對其他正在考慮的收購也抱持同樣的預期，即利潤率恢復到類似的水平。

Yes. And I think, Ghansham, with what we saw from a run-up in energy cost broadly across the EM portfolio, we knew it was going to take some time. And as we called out in the prepared remarks, we do expect to get ahead of that here by the end of the first quarter. And then you should see margins improve here in -- both with Santoprene and in the base business in the second half of the year.

是的。 Ghansham，我認為，鑑於我們看到整個新興市場投資組合的能源成本普遍上漲，我們知道這需要一些時間。正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所提到的，我們確實預計在第一季末就能實現這一目標。到那時，你應該會看到利潤率提高——無論是山都平還是下半年的基礎業務。

Our next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Lori, I was wondering if you could talk through the energy spike in Europe as energy costs there quadruple or quintuple. How are you dealing with that in practical terms? And with regard to efforts to recover, how much might be permanent price increases versus surcharges? How should we think about the energy pig moving through the python as the year progresses?

Lori，我想問一下，歐洲的能源成本上漲了四、五倍，您能否談談那裡的能源價格飆升問題。您實際上是如何應對的？關於恢復能源價格的措施，永久性價格上漲和附加費的幅度可能分別是多少？隨著時間的推移，我們該如何看待「能源豬」在「巨蟒」中穿梭？

I love the way you put that. That's correct. We haven't talked about it in those terms, but that is what it feels like right now. So look, the spikes we saw in third quarter and then the even greater spikes that we saw in the fourth quarter are really unprecedented, as I think was pretty clear from the chart. And I mean, it's been really volatile.

我喜歡你的說法。沒錯。我們之前沒有用這些術語討論過，但現在感覺就是這樣。所以，你看，我們在第三季度看到的飆升，以及我們在第四季度看到的更大的飆升，確實是前所未有的，我認為從圖表上看得很清楚。我的意思是，市場波動很大。

Typically, if you look -- we don't do -- we do some hedging around energy prices in other parts of the world and even in Europe, but we really do it to get security of supply. We do it to reduce volatility. We often do hedge in the fourth quarter and first quarter in the winters when we know we're more likely to get price increases.

通常情況下，如果你看一下——我們不會——我們會對世界其他地區甚至歐洲的能源價格進行一些對沖，但我們這樣做的真正目的是確保供應安全。我們這樣做是為了降低波動性。我們通常在第四季和冬季的第一季進行對沖，因為我們知道價格上漲的可能性更大。

With what happened in Europe, it was so unprecedented. And so -- it came at such a fast rate. We really didn't have that opportunity at all. So that's what we had to pass through those costs to our consumers. We chose to do it through a surcharge because -- to reflect to our customers, it is temporary and it is based on an unusual set of events.

歐洲發生的事件史無前例，而且來得如此之快。我們真的根本沒有機會。所以我們只能把這些成本轉嫁給消費者。我們選擇透過附加費來做到這一點，因為——為了向我們的客戶反映，這是暫時的，並且是基於一系列不尋常的事件。

Look, no one likes a price increase. But I think that by doing it as a surcharge, our customers understand that this is a temporary measure. And we're really not seeing any tangible loss of volume from customers: one, because everybody is experiencing these price increases; and two, some of the supply logistic constraints right now make it really hard for people to source from other places.

瞧，沒人喜歡漲價。但我認為，透過收取附加費，我們的客戶明白這只是暫時的措施。而且我們確實沒有看到客戶有任何明顯的銷售損失：一是因為大家都在經歷漲價；二是目前的一些供應物流限制使得人們很難從其他地方採購。

But as we go forward, we do expect prices to moderate again. We are taking some steps to try to protect ourselves in the future from these kinds of run-ups. And with some of the price increases we've had that were just price increases based on other raw materials, we'll see the benefit of those for some time to come because these are value-priced items that those price increases will stick for a while.

但隨著價格的上漲，我們確實預期價格會再次回落。我們正在採取一些措施，試圖在未來保護自己免受此類價格上漲的影響。我們之前的一些價格上漲只是基於其他原材料的價格上漲，我們將在未來一段時間內看到這些上漲帶來的好處，因為這些產品價格實惠，漲價幅度將持續一段時間。

The surcharge will go away when the energy price goes away. But as we called out in our remarks, we do expect with the other -- with the increases we've had to add on the surcharges, that sometime in the first quarter, we'll be recovering all of the additional energy pricing that we've experienced.

當能源價格下降時，附加費也會取消。但正如我們在發言中提到的那樣，我們確實預計，隨著我們不得不增加附加費，在第一季的某個時候，我們將能夠收回所有額外的能源價格。

Okay. And then secondly, I wanted to ask about your range of $15-plus or call it, $15 to $16 for 2022, just recognizing that it's a really dynamic external environment with lots of dislocations. Just broadly, what do you think are the 2 or 3 biggest swing factors that could allow you to over-deliver or under-deliver versus that target level?

好的。其次，我想問一下，考慮到外部環境變化很大，存在許多不確定性，您認為2022年的目標價位在15美元以上，或者說15到16美元之間。總的來說，您認為哪兩、三個最大的波動因素可能會導致您的業績超出或低於目標價位？

Well, the #1 factor, and it's what we saw this year, is acetic acid pricing and acetyl value chain pricing. I mean while we can do a lot with commercial actions and with the agility and kind of commercial expertise of our teams, and we do that by managing volumes around the world and up and down the chain, base pricing still matters. And so to the extent we see supply tightness, whether they be from weather events, whether they be from unplanned shutdowns, supply tightness in a market that is at, let's say, 85% to 90% utilization, it reflects very quickly in increased prices in the Acetyl Chain. So to the extent that we have more disruption and volatility in the Acetyl Chain markets this year, we'll see pricing go up, and that would give us additional uplift on that outlook for the year.

嗯，最重要的因素，也是我們今年看到的，是乙酸價格和乙醯基價值鏈的價格。我的意思是，雖然我們可以透過商業行動、團隊的敏捷性和商業專業知識來做很多事情，而且我們透過管理全球及上下游產業鏈的產量來做到這一點，但基礎價格仍然很重要。因此，如果我們看到供應緊張，無論是由於天氣事件，還是由於計劃外停產，還是由於市場利用率（比如說，85% 到 90%）的供應緊張，它都會很快反映在乙醯基價值鏈的價格上漲上。因此，如果今年乙醯基價值鏈市場出現更多混亂和波動，我們將看到價格上漲，這將進一步提升我們對今年前景的信心。

Inflation is obviously an issue as is supply chain. And so we're assuming the supply chain restrictions we see this year moderate over the course of the year. We're not assuming they're perfect, but we are assuming they're starting to moderate over the course of the year. If we see that not happen, that will have some impact. But as you saw, those numbers are in the 10s and 20s of millions in a quarter, not hundreds like we would see acetyl pricing.

通貨膨脹顯然是個問題，供應鏈也是。因此，我們假設今年的供應鏈限制措施將在全年內有所緩和。我們並非假設這些措施完美無缺，但我們假設它們會在全年內開始緩和。如果情況沒有好轉，就會產生一些影響。但如您所見，這些數字每季都在數千萬到數千萬之間，而不是像乙醯基價格那樣數以百計。

And then for EM, I think auto recovery is a big issue. Again, we've assumed pretty flat auto between '21 and '22 based on chip shortages. But if we see that resolved, then there's some good upside for Engineered Materials in there for increased sales into auto.

對於新興市場而言，我認為汽車產業的復甦是一個大問題。同樣，由於晶片短缺，我們預計21-22年汽車產業將基本持平。但如果這個問題得到解決，那麼工程材料業務在汽車行業的銷售額將有所增長，這將帶來一些利好。

Our next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

You mentioned in the prepared comments on the Acetyl Chain that your RDP business, the volumes were up, I think you said 25% versus their historical peak, and that should be shifting more of your mix there and I guess broader emulsions in '22. So could you just talk to us a little bit about what's happening in RDP that was allowing that volume performance? Is it something you were doing with the asset under new ownership? Is it the market? Is it both? Where is the demand coming from in terms of segments? Or is it shifting from other products? But just give us a little more color on what's happening there.

您在關於乙醯基鏈的準備好的評論中提到，您的RDP業務的銷量有所增長，我記得您說的是比歷史峰值增長了25%，這應該會在2022年將更多的產品組合轉移到該業務上，我想也會轉移到更廣泛的乳液領域。那麼您能否簡單談談RDP業務的現狀，是什麼促成瞭如此高的銷售？是您在新東家的領導下對資產進行了哪些調整嗎？是市場因素嗎？還是兩者兼具？就細分市場而言，需求來自哪裡？還是來自其他產品？請您再詳細介紹一下RDP業務的狀況。

Yes. Look, we've seen very strong demand and pricing from the construction sector, specifically for emulsions and powders. So whether it be paints and coatings or these insulation systems that I talked about earlier, we are seeing very strong demand there. And as a lot of countries put in additional energy efficiency requirements or greenhouse gas footprint reduction requirements, we expect that we will continue to see very strong demand continue for emulsions and powders.

是的。我們看到建築業的需求和價格都非常強勁，尤其是對乳液和粉末塗料的需求。所以，無論是油漆和塗料，還是我之前提到的保溫系統，我們都看到了非常強烈的需求。而且，隨著許多國家推出額外的能源效率要求或溫室氣體減排要求，我們預計乳液和粉末塗料的需求將繼續保持強勁。

I think what's changed there is with our acquisition of Elotex, which let us get into the RDP market, we've been able to take those assets. We've been able to debottleneck them quickly. We've been able to run them harder. Because we're vertically integrated, we will run them full because we still see the value of the acetic acid that's going into them. Coming out as RDP, maybe something that someone who's not vertically integrated would struggle to do. And so we've just been able to run them harder.

我認為，真正的改變在於我們收購了Elotex，這讓我們得以進入RDP市場，我們得以接手這些資產。我們能夠迅速突破瓶頸，並提高產能。由於我們是垂直整合的，我們會全力以赴，因為我們仍然看好其中乙酸的價值。以RDP的形式運營，對於沒有垂直整合的人來說，可能很難做到。所以我們能夠更有效率地運作它們。

We've also been able to get more, I guess, I'd say, innovative in terms of marketing our emulsions and RDP together as a package, which allows customers in some of these things like the thermal insulation systems to buy a system of products that works for their needs versus having to go source them independently. And so commercially, that's been a big win for us and something we think is really going to secure the sector and improve the margins of the sector going forward.

我們也能夠在將乳液和RDP整合成套產品進行行銷方面取得更多創新，這使得客戶（例如隔熱系統客戶）能夠購買到符合其需求的整套產品，而無需單獨採購。因此，從商業角度來看，這對我們來說是一個巨大的勝利，我們認為這將真正保障該行業的穩定，並提高該行業未來的利潤率。

Okay. And if I could just ask a follow-up on the auto comments. When you're talking about autos for 2022, you're obviously speaking to your own volume and what your expectations are. You also mentioned in the prepared remarks about the tiers. We're doing some destocking in the fourth quarter. I just wanted to understand whether was that just sort of typical fourth quarter destocking for working capital purposes? Was that just a function of they built too much inventory in 4Q -- or sorry, in 2021 versus what the chips allowed them to do? And is that destocking done? Or is that something that could be a feature of this year as well?

好的。我想問一下關於汽車行業評論的後續問題。您談到2022年的汽車市場時，顯然是在談論您自己的銷售和預期。您在準備好的發言中也提到了層級結構。我們正在第四季度進行一些去庫存化。我只是想了解一下，這是否只是第四季為了補充營運資本而進行的典型去庫存化？這是否僅僅是因為他們在第四季度——或者抱歉，是在2021年——庫存過高，而晶片生產能力有限？去庫存化已經完成了嗎？或者說，這也可能成為今年的特色？

Yes. Great question. So our belief is we saw really good demand still in third quarter despite a low level of auto builds in third quarters. And our belief is the tiers were continuing to build inventory in anticipation of a really robust fourth quarter. With chip demand -- with chip availability being what it was, fourth quarter did come back, but not as strongly as everybody expected. And then it was year-end so the tiers chose to just take you some destocking over the quarter so that they didn't have year-end inventories quite as high.

是的，問得好。我們認為，儘管第三季汽車產量較低，但第三季的需求仍然非常強勁。我們認為，各大供應商正在持續增加庫存，以期迎接真正強勁的第四季。由於晶片需求——以及晶片供應情況——第四季確實有所回升，但不如大家預期的那麼強勁。然後到了年底，各大供應商選擇在本季度進行一些去庫存，這樣他們的年末庫存就不會那麼高了。

We still believe inventories are very low in the tiers. And so we don't expect that to be an ongoing phenomena. We think it was simply a year-end phenomena. We expect to see demand come back robustly in first quarter and on through the rest of the year based on improved auto builds, but also based on the tiers needing to rebuild inventory.

我們仍然認為各級車企的庫存非常低。因此，我們預計這不會持續下去。我們認為這只是年底的現象。我們預計，由於汽車產量回升，以及各級車企需要重建庫存，需求將在第一季以及今年剩餘時間內強勁回升。

Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

In China, you and your competitors were impacted by dual control. And I think dual control has ended now. And they built up their coal inventories, and dual control has ended. What does that mean for more acetyls production in China? Do you see that happening?

在中國，你們和你們的競爭對手受到了雙重管制的影響。我認為雙重管制現在已經結束了。他們增加了煤炭庫存，雙重管制也結束了。這對中國增加乙醯基產量意味著什麼？您認為這種情況會發生嗎？

Yes. I definitely see the ability for that to happen. If we look at the curtailment in China, we lost about 25,000 tons of lost production. About half of that was VAM and the other half was a combination of acetic acid and other derivatives. So that was about $20 million to $25 million of lost margin due to that curtailment.

是的。我確實看到了實現這一目標的可能性。以中國的減產為例，我們損失了約2.5萬噸的產量。其中約一半是醋酸乙烯酯（VAM），另一半是醋酸和其他衍生物。因此，由於減產，利潤損失約為2000萬至2500萬美元。

So assuming we don't have any curtailment, then that's obviously volume that we can produce into the system. And our expectation is the same as yours. We don't see any indications we'll have curtailments this year either.

所以假設我們沒有任何限產，那麼這顯然就是我們可以投入系統的產量。我們的預期和你們的一樣。我們也沒有看到任何跡象顯示今年會出現限產。

Okay. And then Europe has been difficult for many companies as oil prices went up and there was limited pricing. How is your European operation holding up in general as a region? And can you just make any comments on what you're seeing going forward?

好的。由於油價上漲，定價受限，歐洲市場對許多公司來說都比較困難。你們的歐洲業務整體表現如何？您能對未來的發展前景發表一些看法嗎？

Yes. I don't think we've really seen any major impacts on our business from the increase in oil pricing. I mean, as we've called out before, generally, we do better with higher pricing. In acetyls, that can get passed through immediately. It takes a little bit longer in EM. But generally, we do better with higher pricing. The real impact we've had this year has been from natural gas in Europe, and the impact that, that's had on specifically our EM operations in Europe as well as our tow operations in Europe, where we just -- in those contracts, we don't -- haven't had the opportunity to pass on the additional cost of natural gas and utilities based on natural gas through to the consumer real time. We've had a lag in that pass through of pricing.

是的。我認為油價上漲並沒有對我們的業務造成任何重大影響。我的意思是，正如我們之前所說，通常情況下，油價上漲對我們業務的影響更大。乙醯基產品可以立即轉嫁到消費者身上。而新興市場則需要更長的時間。但整體而言，油價上漲對我們業務的影響更大。今年我們受到的真正影響來自歐洲的天然氣，以及它對我們在歐洲新興市場業務以及拖曳業務的影響。在這些合約中，我們沒有機會將天然氣和基於天然氣的公用事業的額外成本即時轉嫁給消費者。我們在價格轉嫁方面有滯後。

But I do think, P.J., the one thing that we do love is having in-region capacity. And our assets in Europe are running at a high rate. With the supply chain issues and the issues around logistics and product coming in from other regions, that has helped us to be able to sustain and offset some of these increases in raw materials.

但P.J.，我確實認為，我們真正喜歡的一點就是擁有區域內產能。我們在歐洲的資產運作率很高。儘管存在供應鏈問題、物流問題以及來自其他地區的產品運輸問題，但這幫助我們維持並抵消了部分原材料價格上漲的影響。

Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, in the prepared comments, you called out some turnaround costs in acetyls in both Q1 and Q2. Can you quantify those costs?

Lori，在準備好的評論中，您提到了第一季和第二季乙醯基產品的一些週轉成本。您能量化一下這些成本嗎？

Yes. If we look at 2021, we had a total of right around $40 million in turnaround costs. And in 2022, we expect that to be about the same. Last year, it was spread across a wider variety of assets. This year, our large turnarounds will be the 2 we called out. We have a -- Fairway has a turnaround in the first quarter and then we have a Clear Lake acetic acid plant turnaround that starts at the end of the first quarter and goes into the second quarter.

是的。如果我們回顧2021年，我們的周轉成本總計約為4000萬美元。我們預計2022年也差不多。去年，這筆成本分佈在更廣泛的資產類別。今年，我們預計的大型週轉項目將是那兩家。 Fairway在第一季進行了一次週轉，Clear Lake醋酸工廠也進行了一次週轉，該週轉從第一季末開始，持續到第二季​​。

Very good. And just back to M&A. If you are unable to make a transformational acquisition in EM, could you or would you ramp up organic spending in that business?

非常好。回到併購話題。如果您無法在新興市場進行轉型性收購，您是否能夠或願意增加該業務的有機支出？

So we're still planning on high organic spending. I mean, we're planning on $600 million capital next year. Part of that is completion of the [Panther] project in the acetyls business. But the rest of -- most of the rest of that is really in Engineered Materials, where we'll be spending about the same amount we spent for Panther as we do some of our expansion projects and new builds in China and, well, really all parts of the world.

所以我們仍在計劃高額的內生性支出。我的意思是，我們計劃明年投入6億美元的資金。其中一部分用於完成乙醯基業務的[Panther]專案。但其餘大部分資金實際上都用於工程材料業務，我們將在中國以及世界各地開展一些擴建項目和新建項目，這方面的支出將與Panther項目大致相同。

So I'd say the M&A is not having a big impact on our view of organic investment. Organic investments continues to be our highest return. And so we've ramped those projects up as we see our ability to strategically and efficiently deploy capital. So I don't think that will have a -- make a difference in terms of our organic investments.

所以我認為併購對我們對有機投資的看法沒有太大影響。有機投資仍是我們回報最高的投資。因此，隨著我們意識到自己能夠策略性地、有效率地部署資本，我們加大了這些專案的投入。所以我認為這不會對我們的有機投資產生任何影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

A question around you guys have sort of a relative degree of, call it, satisfaction with your upstream integration. I mean, obviously, we've seen some seismic shifts over the last couple of months, be it the European natural gas situation, the new 5-year plan presented in China, obviously looking for significant curtailments in coal usage. So as you've sort of seen all of those things, does that make you sort of rethink maybe the integration strategy, maybe you guys should be more integrated? I don't know how you guys are thinking about that with some of these goings on.

一個關於你們對上游整合的滿意度的問題。我的意思是，顯然，過去幾個月我們看到了一些重大變化，例如歐洲的天然氣形勢，以及中國提出的新五年規劃，這些都顯然要求大幅削減煤炭使用量。所以，看到所有這些事情，你們是否會重新思考整合策略，或許你們應該更加整合？我不知道你們是如何看待這些事情的。

Hassan, I assume you're thinking more about integration in terms of upstream.

哈桑，我認為你更多考慮的是上游方面的整合。

Upstream integration, correct, yes.

上游整合，正確，是的。

Into the Acetyl Chain? Yes.

進入乙醯基鏈？是的。

Indeed.

的確。

Yes, yes. So we -- look, right now, we get about -- we produce about 40% of our own methanol. We kind of like that balance of being able to produce methanol or buy methanol depending where the markets are and what the sources of value are. We're pretty happy with that. We constantly reevaluate and look at opportunities to go further upstream. But I would say right now, we're pretty happy at about that 40% range we're at.

是的，是的。所以，就目前而言，我們大約有40%的甲醇是自產的。我們喜歡這種平衡，既可以生產甲醇，也可以購買甲醇，這取決於市場在哪裡，以及價值來源是什麼。我們對此非常滿意。我們不斷重新評估，尋找進一步向上游發展的機會。但我想說，目前我們對40%左右的產量佔比已經非常滿意了。

Yes. And with the methanol expansions we've already announced this on, I mean that's going to be able to take and help us with some of the growth that we expect, largely in the Acetyl Chain over the next several years.

是的。我們已經宣布了甲醇擴產計劃，這意味著這將能夠幫助我們實現預期的成長，主要是未來幾年乙醯基鏈的成長。

Understood. Understood. And just also wanted to revisit M&A. I mean you guys talked about considering anything from bolt-on to transformational. Just -- I just wanted to get a better sense of if you guys have a preference for -- preference or not for certain regions. Only reason I bring that up is there seem to be some chunky assets in Europe that either spinning off, looking to be acquired. I'm thinking in terms of the DSM plastics unit, the LANXESS, HPM business. I mean, the question really is, you guys have a sizable presence in Europe as is. Would you consider doubling down in Europe? Would you be dissuaded by that? Just regionally, how you're thinking about M&A?

明白了。明白了。我還想再談一下併購。我的意思是，你們談到了考慮從補強到轉型的各種方案。我只是想知道你們對某些地區是否有偏好。我之所以提到這一點，是因為歐洲似乎有一些重要的資產要么被剝離，要么正在尋求收購。我指的是帝斯曼塑膠部門、朗盛和HPM業務。我的意思是，真正的問題是，你們在歐洲的業務規模已經相當可觀了。你們會考慮在歐洲加倍投入嗎？這會阻止你們嗎？就地區而言，你們是如何考慮併購的？

Hassan, I would say I am geographically agnostic. I am -- it is all about value for me. So we look at all M&A targets for the opportunities value for Celanese. I mean clearly, we want it to be a good strategic fit. But we really look at synergies and all the other assets -- aspects of a deal to make sure it is something that we believe will create outsized value for Celanese and our shareholders.

哈桑，我想說，我對地域沒有偏好。對我來說，一切都關乎價值。所以我們會檢視所有併購目標，看看它們對塞拉尼斯是否有價值。我的意思是，我們顯然希望它具有良好的策略契合度。但我們也會真正關注協同效應以及交易的所有其他方面，以確保我們相信這筆交易能夠為塞拉尼斯和我們的股東創造超額價值。

Our next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

So in the Acetyl Chain, you guys demonstrated this past quarter again the kind of ability to flex the global network to take advantage of kind of regional changes in price and what have you. I guess how did you do that given all the freight and logistics constraints that are out there? And I guess as those start to alleviate, does that give you even more shots on goal or more opportunities? How should we be thinking about that?

那麼，在乙醯基鏈業務方面，你們在過去一個季度再次展現了靈活運用全球網路的能力，從而利用區域價格變化等因素。考慮到目前貨運和物流的種種限制，你們是如何做到這一點的？我想，隨著這些限制開始緩解，你們是否會獲得更多機會？我們該如何看待這一點？

I think you're right. I mean I think fourth quarter continues to demonstrate the real strength of the business model we have in acetyls. I think there, you really see kind of the breadth of our manufacturing footprint, being present in 3 different geographies. The agility of our supply chain has made us really good, I would say, even better at adapting to and capitalizing on disruptions, which we've seen a lot this year. And I think the performance of our acetyl team is really impressive this year. If you look at all of the opportunities we had to not be agile, they've really taken advantage of it and created a lot of value for the company this year.

我想你說得對。第四季繼續展現了我們乙醯基業務模式的真正實力。我認為，你真的看到了我們生產佈局的廣度，我們業務遍及三個不同的地區。我們供應鏈的敏捷性讓我們更能適應並利用今年頻繁出現的中斷。我認為我們乙醯基團隊今年的表現非常令人印象深刻。如果你回顧我們過去所有不敏捷的機會，你會發現他們真正抓住了這些機會，並為公司創造了巨大的價值。

I think you see that we really focused on China this year because prices were very high. But at the very end of the year, the team was able to shift AC sales more to the Western Hemisphere where prices held up longer. In fact, the fourth quarter, we saw the highest percent of our volume going into the Western Hemisphere that we have this year. It was about a 10% swing from China to the Western Hemisphere. Similarly, we saw swings out of acetic acid and more into VAM, emulsions and RDP.

我想你看得出來，我們今年確實非常專注於中國市場，因為價格非常高。但在年底，團隊成功將醋酸乙烯酯（AC）的銷售更多地轉移到了西半球，因為那裡的價格更穩定。事實上，第四季度，我們銷往西半球的銷售比例達到了今年的最高水準。從中國到西半球的轉變約有10%。同樣，我們也看到醋酸的銷量有所下降，而VAM、乳化劑和RDP的銷量則有所增加。

And I think that is the value of what we have with kind of end-to-end value chain as well as geographic diversity. I would say, look, we've had some issues around supply chain, logistics and freight, like many of them and like many folks have. But I would also say our team has been amazingly resilient and flexible, and securing ships, securing whatever they needed to do and making sure we could move things as we needed to, to really maximize the value of that chain.

我認為這就是我們端到端價值鏈以及地域多樣性的價值。我想說，我們在供應鏈、物流和貨運方面確實遇到了一些問題，就像他們中的許多人以及許多人遇到的那樣。但我還要說，我們的團隊非常有韌性和靈活性，確保了船舶的安全，確保了他們需要做的一切，並確保我們能夠根據需要運輸貨物，從而真正最大化了這條價值鏈的價值。

Look, like anybody, it took us a little bit longer in some cases to fill out those value chains. But I would say we're through that now and have the lead times in place to really be able to continue to take advantage of that.

就像其他人一樣，在某些情況下，我們可能需要更長的時間來填補這些價值鏈。但我想說，我們現在已經完成了這個階段，並且擁有充足的交付週期，能夠真正繼續利用這些優勢。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe a question for Scott around again the M&A commentary. And I guess just given the significant cash flows that you guys have been throwing off and maybe more so than some expected, I guess can you help us to understand what -- or how much you can stress or flex the balance sheet and still keep the -- still keep your investment grade rating? Can you go north of 4x? Is that kind of a leverage hurdle that's doable in your mind just given the strength of the cash flows? I guess how should we think about that?

明白了。這很有幫助。然後我想問斯科特一個關於併購評論的問題。考慮到你們一直在產生的巨額現金流，甚至可能超出一些人的預期，我想您能否幫助我們理解，在保持投資級評級的同時，您可以施加多大的壓力或調整資產負債表？你們的槓桿率能超過4倍嗎？考慮到強勁的現金流，您認為這種槓桿門檻是可以負擔的嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Well, John, I mean, every deal is going to be unique and different. And I think a lot depends upon how much EBITDA we're buying and then what the makeup of the various assets would be that would be in that type of situation. So I mean, I would say it really depends. And I think we are really focused on making sure we generate a lot of cash.

嗯，約翰，我的意思是，每筆交易都是獨一無二的。我認為這很大程度上取決於我們收購的EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤），以及在那種情況下各種資產的組成。所以，我認為這真的要看情況。我認為我們非常專注於確保產生大量現金。

And as Lori talked about synergies being critical in any deal, and I think depending on levels of synergies, it's going to really dictate what we could do from a balance sheet perspective. And it really comes down to cash generation. We feel really good about 2022 at $1.4 billion. And we think that cash generation with the growth in earnings that we project in the coming years is going to continue to be quite robust.

正如洛里所說，協同效應在任何交易中都至關重要，我認為協同效應的水平將真正決定我們從資產負債表的角度可以做什麼。最終還是要看現金創造能力。我們對2022年的14億美元目標感到非常滿意。我們認為，未來幾年，隨著我們預計的獲利成長，現金創造能力將繼續保持強勁。

Next question is from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 Matthew Blair。

Maybe sticking on the M&A topic, Lori. I thought the comments that you're looking at M&A in the Acetyl Chain were pretty interesting, just given your large market position. Would this be something more downstream like emulsions? Or do you think you could consolidate acetic acid and VAM capacity in other parts of the world?

洛里，或許可以繼續討論併購話題。考慮到你們的龐大市場地位，我認為你正在考慮乙醯基鏈領域的併購，這很有趣。這會涉及更下游的領域，例如乳液？或者你認為你們可以整合世界其他地區的乙酸和VAM產能嗎？

That's a fair question, Matthew. Look, we do have a large position already in the Acetyl Chain. So I think as we've looked at M&A for the Acetyl Chain, it is things more like Elotex, so further downstream in the value chain. That is more likely possibility than, say, any kind of a big M&A around acetic acid or some of those products where we already have a fairly large position.

馬修，這個問題問得好。你看，我們在乙醯基產品鏈上已經佔據了很大的份額。所以我認為，當我們研究乙醯基產品鏈上的併購時，它更像是像Elotex這樣的公司，位於價值鏈的更下游。這比圍繞乙酸或其他一些我們已經佔據相當大份額的產品進行的任何大型併購更有可能發生。

Got it. And then in the prepared comments, I noted that you're immediately sold out of the Bishop GUR plant that just started up. Are there any like low-cost expansion opportunities here? Or is it pretty much set at 15 kt?

明白了。然後在準備好的評論中，我注意到你們剛剛投產的Bishop GUR工廠很快就售罄了。這裡有類似的低成本擴建機會嗎？還是說產能基本上定在15千噸？

There are -- we have been doing the low-cost expansions as we can. Our engineers are looking very hard at that. Obviously, GUR markets have continued to expand and grow at a rate much faster than anticipated. We grew nearly 40% this last year. And so the expansion that we built in Bishop, which we expected would last us 12 to 18 months of growth capacity, is now already sold out.

確實如此——我們一直在盡可能地進行低成本擴建。我們的工程師們正在努力實現這一點。顯然，GUR 市場持續擴張，成長速度遠超預期。去年我們的成長速度接近 40%。因此，我們在 Bishop 的擴建項目原本預計可以維持我們 12 到 18 個月的成長產能，但現在已經全部售罄。

So we continuously look for small expansions. The next large expansion we've already announced will be in Europe in 2024. Hopefully, we'll find some more before that. But we are pushing as hard as we can to grow as fast as we can in that area, but just limited right now by our ability to get metal in the ground.

因此，我們一直在尋找小規模的擴張機會。我們已經宣布的下一個大規模擴張計畫將於2024年在歐洲進行。希望在那之前我們能找到更多機會。我們正在竭盡全力推動該地區盡快發展，但目前受限於我們地下金屬開採能力。

Our next question is from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great. Congratulations on another strong year. I guess just 2 questions. So first off, could you just update us maybe on any parts of your portfolio that are still lagging? Maybe thinking within the electric procedure side on EM, when do you expect that to get back to normal levels?

太好了。恭喜您又一個強勁的一年。我想就兩個問題。首先，您能否更新投資組合中哪些部分仍表現落後？或許可以考慮新興市場的電子程式方面，您預期什麼時候能恢復到正常水準？

We saw -- thanks, Arun. We saw a good growth actually in implants this year, about a 20% improvement over 2020. But you are right. It is still like we're still kind of 15% to 20% below where we were in 2019. Looking at what the implant makers are saying, we don't expect full recovery of implant volumes until we really get into 2023 at this point.

我們看到——謝謝，阿倫。今年植入物的數量確實成長良好，比2020年增加了約20%。不過你說得對。目前看來，植入物數量仍比2019年低了15%到20%。根據植入物製造商的說法，我們預計植入物數量的完全恢復要到2023年才能真正到來。

Okay. And I just wanted to again go back to the question of deployment of cash. I mean, there's -- again, there's quite a robust trajectory here from the $1.4 billion and potentially growth from there over the next couple of years as you bring on these investments. So does it make sense at least to potentially accelerate the capital return in light of still high valuation multiples? Or are you looking to continue the inorganic growth side?

好的。我只是想再次回到現金配置的問題。我的意思是，從14億美元來看，未來幾年隨著這些投資的推進，公司的成長軌跡相當強勁，並且可能會繼續成長。那麼，鑑於估值倍數仍然很高，至少加速資本回報是否合理？或者您希望繼續保持無機成長？

Well, I think -- I mean, as Lori said earlier, I mean, our focus is always on organic growth first. Those are historically our highest return projects. And we've got $600 million earmarked this year for capital to invest back in ourselves. And then what we've historically done is take that free cash flow, and this year at $1.4 billion, and then deploy that for -- to service the dividend and then for repurchases and M&A. And that's -- with where the dividend is at, that's likely going to be somewhere in the $1 billion, slightly more than $1 billion of capital that we'll be able to deploy back with that for M&A and for repurchases. So I think that focus really hasn't changed. And given with that cash generation, we think it just presents more opportunity for us.

嗯，我想——我的意思是，正如Lori之前所說，我們的重點始終是有機成長。這些項目歷來都是我們回報率最高的項目。今年我們已預留6億美元資金用於自身投資。我們以往的做法是，利用這些自由現金流（今年是14億美元）來支付股息，然後用於回購和併購。考慮到目前的股利水平，我們能夠用於併購和回購的資金很可能在10億美元左右，略高於10億美元。所以我認為我們的重點確實沒有改變。考慮到這些現金流，我們認為這為我們帶來了更多機會。

The next question is from the line of Alex Yefremov with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov。

You have a fairly sizable nylon compounding business. As you look at transition to EVs, do you think nylon has risks related to content loss because of its use in high-speed applications? Or is there still in that content gain because of new nylon applications?

你們的尼龍複合業務規模相當可觀。在向電動車轉型的過程中，您是否認為尼龍會因為在高速應用中的使用而面臨含量損失的風險？還是說，由於新的尼龍應用，尼龍的含量仍然會增加？

It's a great question, and one we're hearing a lot. Our belief is we don't expect a decline in nylon with the move to EVs. There are a lot of applications for nylon in EV. So the high-speed connectors, the powertrain, and obviously, the body, the interior, nylon's really good for lightweighting and still being able to get strength and dimensional stability.

這個問題問得很好，我們也常聽到。我們相信，隨著電動車的普及，尼龍的需求不會下降。尼龍在電動車領域有許多應用。例如高速連接器、動力傳動系統，當然還有車身和內飾，尼龍在​​輕量化方面非常有效，同時也能保持強度和尺寸穩定性。

In fact, we've had a few new applications using nylon into EV. So we have a Celstran application that's going into a tailgate on an electric vehicle, for example. So it's lightweight. It has good appearance, high strength. That saves money because it's 1 piece versus 2 pieces. So we really see more, I would say, at least equal, if not more opportunities for nylon into EVs as were in conventional vehicles.

事實上，我們已經在電動車領域發現了一些新的尼龍應用。例如，我們有一個 Celstran 應用，用於電動車的後擋板。它重量輕，外觀漂亮，強度高。而且由於它是一體式的，而不是兩塊式的，所以可以節省成本。因此，我認為，我們確實看到了更多，至少可以說，尼龍在電動車領域的應用機會與傳統汽車領域不相上下，甚至更多。

Yes. Alex, I also wouldn't underestimate the power of recycled nylon. And this has been one of the things that we have gained through acquisition. And we've been really growing that ECOMID part of our nylon portfolio. As our customers look for more and more recycled content, nylon is a great material to recycle. And the opportunities that we have and the portfolio of grades that we continue to grow has been a really nice area of acceleration for us.

是的。 Alex，我也不會低估再生尼龍的潛力。這也是我們透過收購所獲得的利益之一。我們一直在大力發展尼龍產品組合中的ECOMID部分。隨著我們的客戶越來越需要再生材料，尼龍是一種非常適合回收的材料。我們擁有的機會以及我們持續成長的牌號組合，對我們來說是一個非常好的加速領域。

[Nylon]. But I would also say there's a lot of nylon in things associated with EVs like the charging stations and other electrification components. So outside the vehicle itself, we see a lot of new applications developing for nylon.

[尼龍]。但我還要說的是，在電動車相關的領域，例如充電站和其他電氣化零件，也大量使用了尼龍。所以，除了汽車本身，我們也看到尼龍的許多新應用正在開發中。

That's great. And on excess inventory, so if your EM products at the tier suppliers, do you have a sense if they have, I don't know, 1 or 2 or 5 months of that excess inventory? And also, do you, yourselves, have any excess auto product inventory?

太好了。關於庫存過剩的問題，如果你們的EM產品在一級供應商那裡，你們知道他們是否有（我不知道）1個月、2個月還是5個月的過剩庫存嗎？另外，你們自己是否有過剩的汽車產品庫存？

So I'll take the last one first. We do not have excess inventory. We have hardly any inventory at all. This has been a year where we could pretty much sell anything we could make. Our belief is the tiers aren't sitting there with a lot of inventory. Again, we think it was a year-end phenomena that they decided to just draw down what little bit that they had. And we don't expect that to continue into 2022.

我先說最後一個。我們沒有多餘的庫存，幾乎沒有庫存。今年我們幾乎什麼產品都能賣。我們認為各大零售商的庫存不多。再說一次，我們認為他們決定把剩下的庫存用掉，只是年底的現象。我們預計這種情況不會持續到2022年。

Our next question is from the line of Steve Richardson with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的史蒂夫理查森 (Steve Richardson)。

This is [Keith Sean] calling on behalf of Steve. Going back to commodity volatility. With nat gas prices still being high domestically and abroad, how quickly are costs flowing through? Are they a little bit faster than expected? And I guess, particularly on the EM side, as you mentioned that there's been a bit of a lag on the ability to pass on higher costs.

我是[Keith Sean]，代表史蒂夫。回到大宗商品波動的問題。目前國內外天然氣價格仍高企，成本的流轉速度有多快？會比預期的快一點嗎？我想，尤其是在新興市場方面，正如您所提到的，轉嫁更高成本的能力存在一些延遲。

Great question. And we've called that a little bit. We started doing energy surcharges in third -- at the end of third quarter. With those surcharges, we were able to recover about $20 million worth of energy costs in the fourth quarter. But energy costs skyrocketed far beyond what we expected to weigh at about $15 million uncovered by those surcharges in the fourth quarter. We do expect with those surcharges now flowing through, that we will get recovery of that. Sometime in the first quarter, we'll be at a point where we're covering all of that. And then we expect energy prices to be fairly flat for us as we go through the first quarter. So we expect, again, sometime in the first quarter, we should be fully recovering all of that.

問得好。我們之前也提到過這一點。我們從第三季末開始徵收能源附加費。透過這些附加費，我們在第四季收回了約2000萬美元的能源成本。但第四季能源成本飆升，遠超我們預期，約1500萬美元，這些附加費並未涵蓋這些成本。我們預計，隨著這些附加費的到位，我們能夠收回這些成本。到第一季的某個時候，我們將能夠收回所有成本。然後，我們預計，在第一季度，能源價格對我們來說將保持相對穩定。因此，我們預計，在第一季的某個時候，我們應該能夠完全收回所有成本。

And then just a follow-up. You mentioned, obviously, the autos rebound and, in particular, chip shortage being a possible swing factor, for $15 guidance, possible upside. Can you give a little bit more color as to what auto OEMs are saying about the shortage? Just overall, this feels like the chip shortage continues to last for longer than expected.

然後是後續問題。您提到，顯然汽車產業正在反彈，尤其是晶片短缺是一個潛在的波動因素，對於15美元的指導價來說，可能存在上漲空間。您能否更詳細地介紹一下汽車原始設備製造商對晶片短缺的看法？總的來說，晶片短缺持續的時間似乎比預期的要長。

Yes. Look, I think the OEMs are predicting a faster recovery, and some are probably having more success getting chips than others. I would say we tend to look at IHS. IHS is predicting kind of mid, high single-digit growth globally into next year from this year, which will still be mid- to high single digits behind where we were pre-COVID. So they're not predicting full recovery, but let's say, kind of half of the way there.

是的。我認為OEM廠商預測復甦會更快，有些廠商在晶片採購方面可能比其他廠商更成功。我想說，我們傾向於參考IHS的數據。 IHS預測，從今年到明年，全球經濟將保持中高個位數成長，但仍將比新冠疫情之前的水平低中高個位數。所以，他們並沒有預測經濟會完全復甦，但可以假設，復甦已經完成一半了。

Our own outlook is more conservative based on what we're seeing and what we're hearing around chip shortages. But -- so that's where the upside is. If IHS is right, which we all hope they are, that chips come back more quickly and we see that kind of recovery, then we'll have additional upside in our auto volumes as well.

根據我們所見所聞，我們自身的預期較為保守，這與晶片短缺有關。但——這也正是有利的一面。如果IHS的預測正確——我們都希望如此——晶片復甦會更快，而且我們看到了這種復甦，那麼我們的汽車銷售也會有額外的上升空間。

Rob, let's make the next question the last one, please.

羅布，請把下一個問題當作最後一個問題。

Sure. That question will be coming from the line of Jaideep Pandya with On Field Investment.

當然。這個問題由 On Field Investment 的 Jaideep Pandya 提出。

The first question is really around your GUR expansion. Could you just tell us like, is this mainly going into the separator market? And if so, is it more dry versus the wet separator? Because obviously, there's a huge growth in PVDF in front of us. So just wanted to understand your potential further expansions in GUR in this regard.

第一個問題是關於你們GUR業務的擴張。能否請您介紹一下，這主要是為了進入隔膜市場嗎？如果是，是乾式隔膜還是濕式隔膜？顯然，PVDF市場正處於巨大的成長期。所以，我想了解你們GUR在這方面的潛在擴張計畫。

And then the second question really is sort of around your comments around M&A. I mean, you've outlined the sort of strength of the acetyls platform now in terms of also sustainability. So do you think that Celanese, in terms of the structure as it is today with EM and acetyls, is the way to go forward if there is a transformational deal? Or should we think that if there is a transformational deal, a separate path for those 2 businesses could -- is also very much on the cards?

第二個問題實際上與您關於併購的評論有關。我的意思是，您已經概述了乙醯平台目前在永續性方面的優勢。那麼，您是否認為，如果塞拉尼斯達成了轉型交易，那麼就其目前擁有的電子顯微鏡和乙醯平台的結構而言，塞拉尼斯的未來發展方向是什麼？或者，如果達成了一項轉型交易，那麼這兩個業務部門是否也有可能走上一條獨立的發展道路？

Great. So let me take your first question. So the Bishop GUR started up kind of at the end of 2021. That volume is essentially going to support the lithium ion battery separator film growth that I called out earlier. And it is wet, for those of you that asked me before. So again, we are looking to expand in every way as quick as we can. Those markets continue to grow very strongly, but our next major expansion in GUR will be in 2024 in Germany with an expansion that we have there.

好的。那麼，讓我來回答你的第一個問題。 Bishop GUR 大約在 2021 年底投產。這個產量基本上將支持我之前提到的鋰離子電池隔膜的成長。對於之前問過我的人來說，它是濕潤的。所以，我們再次強調，我們正在尋求盡快在各個方面擴張。這些市場繼續保持強勁成長，但我們 GUR 的下一個重大擴張將在 2024 年在德國進行，我們在那裡已經進行了擴張。

And then on your second question about M&A. Look, we continue to value having our businesses together. I think we see the advantage of that this year, and I think we'll see the advantage of that. If we do big at M&A, that we get this great cash flow from acetyls, which help -- which give us more flexibility and capability to support larger M&As. Obviously, we think we have talent advantages for having a bigger group and other advantages about -- because of a lot of materials coming out of the Acetyl Chain gets used in Engineered Materials.

然後關於您關於併購的第二個問題。您好，我們仍然重視業務整合。我認為我們今年看到了整合的優勢，我相信我們會看到它的優勢。如果我們在併購方面做得更大，就能從乙醯基業務中獲得龐大的現金流，這將有助於我們擁有更大的靈活性和能力來支持更大規模的併購。顯然，我們認為擁有更大的集團規模會帶來人才優勢，以及其他優勢——因為乙醯基鏈產生的許多材料都用於工程材料。

So we like having the businesses together. As I've said on this call before, we never say never. If at some time, we think we would need to separate them to realize the value of the assets, we, of course, would always consider doing what's best for the shareholder. But at this point in time, we think we see having these businesses together as we go forward.

所以我們喜歡把這些業務整合在一起。正如我之前在電話會議上所說，我們永遠不會說「永不」。如果在某個時候，我們認為需要拆分這些業務才能實現資產價值，我們當然會考慮採取對股東最有利的做法。但就目前而言，我們認為將這些業務整合在一起是未來發展的方向。

At this time, I will now turn the call over to Brandon Ayache for closing remarks.

現在，我將把電話交給布蘭登·阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache) 作結束語。

Thanks, Rob. We'd like to thank everyone for listening in today. As always, we're around after the call if you have any follow-up questions at all. Rob, please go ahead and close out the call.

謝謝，Rob。感謝大家今天的收聽。像往常一樣，如果您有任何後續問題，我們會在電話會議結束後與您聯繫。 Rob，請繼續，結束本次會議。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝大家。今天的會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。