塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Celanese First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2021 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Brandon Ayache, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Brandon, please go ahead.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係高級總監 Brandon Ayache。布蘭登，請繼續。

Thank you, Kevin. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Senior Director of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，凱文。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Brandon Ayache，是投資人關係資深總監。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk 和財務長 Scott Richardson。

Celanese Corporation distributed its first quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

塞拉尼斯公司昨天下午透過商業電訊發布了其第一季財報報告，並在投資者關係網站上發布了有關該季度的準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的演講還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言，該語言可在新聞稿末尾以及準備好的評論中找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Because we have published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll now open the line directly for your questions. Kevin, please go ahead and open the line.

由於我們昨天已經發表了準備好的評論，因此我們現在將直接開通熱線回答大家的提問。凱文，請繼續並接通電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from John Roberts from UBS.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Congratulations on the upside -- to the upside guidance, I guess, you gave back at the end of March. Lori, you sourced methanol in Texas during the quarter to restart your acetic acid capacity early. I think methanol was really tight as well. So how did you do that?

恭喜您取得了上行進展－我想，恭喜您在三月底給了上行指引。洛里，本季你在德州購買了甲醇，以便提早重啟你的醋酸產能。我認為甲醇也確實很緊張。那你是怎麼做到的呢？

Yes. It's a great question, John. I would have to say our folks were very proactive. I mean we saw the weather coming. It was predicted. We anticipated we would need to shut down. We anticipated that there would be tightness in the market. And because we're out in the market every single day, looking at what's available, our folks were able to go out there and kind of really source that material, even before we went into the freeze.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，約翰。我必須說我們的員工非常積極主動。我的意思是我們已經預見了天氣的到來。這是預料之中的。我們預計我們需要關閉。我們預計市場將會出現緊張局面。因為我們每天都在市場上尋找可用的材料，所以我們的員工能夠在市場凍結之前就去那裡尋找材料。

And look, we sourced quite a few materials going into the freeze in anticipation of shutdowns and wanting to make sure that we could supply our customers as best we can, recognizing that we thought there would be some disruption. But I think it's just really a factor of the model and the fact that we're always in the market. So we don't need to activate a new team to go do anything when we see something like this coming. We're already out there taking advantage of what's there in the market.

而且，我們採購了相當多的材料，以應對停工帶來的凍結，並希望確保我們能夠盡最大努力為客戶提供供應，同時認識到我們認為可能會出現一些中斷。但我認為這實際上只是模型的一個因素，而事實是我們始終處於市場之中。因此，當我們看到這樣的事情發生時，我們不需要啟動一個新的團隊去做任何事情。我們已經在利用市場上現有的資源。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑勃·庫爾特。

This is actually Mike sitting in for Bob. Lori, just a question for you. Can you speak to what happened over the past month that improved visibility or, I'd say, increase your confidence to raise full year adjusted EPS guidance again by another $1.75 midpoint to midpoint?

這實際上是邁克代替鮑勃。洛瑞，我只想問你一個問題。您能否談談過去一個月發生的事情，這些事情提高了知名度，或者說，增強了您的信心，讓您將全年調整後每股收益預期再次上調 1.75 美元？

Yes. If we go back to Investor Day, although we had the Investor Day, what, the 25th of March, we actually kind of locked in our guidance and our numbers about a week in advance of that, so call it mid-March. And at the time that we locked in our guidance for Investor Day, we were really seeing some softening in methanol prices in China, and we were anticipating -- even on the back of Uri, and we were anticipating that, that trend might continue.

是的。如果我們回顧投資者日，雖然我們有投資者日，即 3 月 25 日，但實際上我們在那之前大約一周就鎖定了我們的指導和數據，所以稱之為 3 月中旬。在我們鎖定投資者日指導價時，我們確實看到中國甲醇價格有所走軟，我們預計——即使在 Uri 的影響下，這種趨勢也可能會持續下去。

Now having said that, we also had some uncertainty around Uri. We had some uncertainty around how -- what we would one-off, what we wouldn't, what the total of those would be. And in fact, we had some of that baked into the guidance, some of which slipped into second quarter because it came with invoicing timing. It came with materials and inventory, et cetera. But then what we really saw is right around the time of Investor Day, we saw prices take off again in China and really versus where we had been in March, which was around, call it, $700, $750 really in the last many weeks. We've seen prices greatly increase and now -- or sometimes over $1,000.

話雖如此，我們對 Uri 也有一些不確定性。我們對如何一次完成哪些工作、哪些工作不做以及這些工作的總數是多少感到有些不確定。事實上，我們已將其中一部分內容納入了指導中，但由於涉及開票時間，其中一些內容已延至第二季。它附帶材料和庫存等等。但我們真正看到的是，就在投資者日前後，我們看到中國的價格再次上漲，而 3 月的價格在過去幾週內實際上一直在 700 美元、750 美元左右。我們已經看到價格大幅上漲，現在有時甚至超過 1,000 美元。

And it's not just acetic acid, but it's also the fact that VAM and other derivative pricing has also followed, something which hasn't always happened in times of high pricing before and during a period where methanol pricing is high but not as high as, say, we saw in 2018. So a lot of factors coming together that have really given us very, very healthy margins in the acetyl chain going forward as well as the continued strength and growth we see in Engineered Materials.

不只是醋酸，VAM 和其他衍生性商品的價格也隨之上漲，這種情況在先前價格高漲的時期並不常見，在甲醇價格高漲的時期也不常見，但不像 2018 年那麼高。因此，許多因素共同作用，確實為我們未來的乙醯鏈帶來了非常非常健康的利潤，同時也為我們在工程材料領域看到的持續實力和成長提供了保障。

Okay. And just as a quick follow-up. I mean when I look at the new full year guidance of $12.50 to $13.50 and kind of considering the significant strength that we've seen in the first half, doesn't seem like it takes much to get there. And I mean even if acetyls are, say, top end the second quarter and earnings fall back to maybe that first quarter level around $3.50-ish for the third quarter, I mean, you would only need about $2 of fourth quarter earnings per share to reach that guidance. So I guess I'm trying to better understand what have you baked into the second half? And maybe why won't earnings be a bit more resilient during the back half of the year?

好的。這只是一次快速的跟進。我的意思是，當我看到新的全年指導價為 12.50 美元至 13.50 美元，並考慮到我們在上半年看到的顯著實力時，似乎不需要花費太多就能達到這個目標。我的意思是，即使乙醯基在第二季度達到最高水平，而第三季度的收益回落到第一季度的水平，大約 3.50 美元，那麼你只需要第四季度每股收益約 2 美元即可達到該指導水平。所以我想我正在嘗試更好地理解你在後半部分融入了什麼？為什麼下半年的獲利不會更有彈性呢？

Look, I think we're always -- we'd like to guide based on what we have visibility into. We don't really have any visibility into the second half at this moment in time. We expect continued growth in EM after a flat second quarter. We do expect continued growth in the third and fourth quarter for EM. But in acetyls, we expect to start to see some moderation in pricing as we get towards the end of the second quarter. We expect that will continue to moderate through the third quarter and be back to more typical levels in the fourth quarter. And that really was the basis for the guidance that we gave was those assumptions about what would happen in the second half. And obviously, it may be different. We have to make assumptions around methanol pricing, crude pricing, everything that's happening there, but that was the basis for the guidance that we provided.

聽著，我認為我們總是——我們希望根據我們所了解的情況來提供指導。目前我們確實還無法預見下半場的情況。我們預計新興市場在第二季穩定後將繼續成長。我們確實預計新興市場在第三季和第四季將繼續成長。但在乙醯基方面，我們預計到第二季末價格將開始有所緩和。我們預計這一趨勢將在第三季度繼續緩和，並在第四季度恢復到更典型的水平。這確實是我們給出指導的基礎，即下半年將發生什麼情況的假設。顯然，情況可能會有所不同。我們必須對甲醇價格、原油價格以及在那裡發生的一切做出假設，但這是我們提供指導的基礎。

Our next question is coming from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, you mentioned some outages in China that could be pushed into Q2. Pushing all the asset base there is getting older as well. So how are you thinking about outages, not just maybe in Q2, but long term in China, both planned and unplanned?

洛里，你提到中國的一些停電可能會延到第二季。將所有資產基礎推向那裡也變得越來越老。那麼您如何看待停電問題呢？不只是第二季的停電，而是中國長期的停電，包括計畫內和計畫外的停電？

Yes. So there was a number of outages we were aware of in China that were planned in the first quarter. A lot of those were pushed to the second quarter based on the strength of the market in the first quarter. Look, some of those they may be able to push to the third quarter, we don't know. But at some point, those outages will need to happen. We know elsewhere in the world, there are some outages that are taking place in the second quarter. And it's just -- it's a big factor right now with the tightness of the market when people choose to take planned outages. And of course, unplanned outages can also be a factor as we go forward, but we won't know what those are. But we do know there will need to be some outages in the second quarter. Again, some may get pushed to the third quarter. We're just happy to say we took the opportunity last year to take all of our turnarounds and necessary steps, and in fact, moving the VAM turnaround in Clear Lake from second quarter, taking it during the forced downtime with the winter storm so that we're able to run fully going forward.

是的。據我們了解，中國在第一季已經計劃好了多起停電事件。由於第一季的市場表現強勁，許多交易被推遲到第二季。瞧，他們可能會將其中一些推遲到第三季度，我們不知道。但在某些時候，這些停電是必須發生的。我們知道，世界其他地方在第二季也發生了一些停電事件。而且，當人們選擇進行計劃停電時，這是一個重要因素，因為目前市場供應緊張。當然，隨著我們前進，計劃外的停電也可能是一個因素，但我們不知道這些因素是什麼。但我們確實知道第二季需要進行一些停電。同樣，有些可能會被推遲到第三季。我們很高興地說，去年我們抓住了機會，採取了所有的扭轉措施和必要措施，事實上，我們將 Clear Lake 的 VAM 扭轉措施從第二季度開始，在冬季風暴導致的被迫停工期間進行，以便我們能夠全面運轉。

Got it. And just on inventories, how long will it take to rebuild inventories at the customer level, do you think?

知道了。就庫存而言，您認為在客戶層級重建庫存需要多長時間？

That's really the basis for what we're thinking about acetyl pricing. We think it's clearly going to take into the summer, so through second quarter, moving into third quarter to really start inventory levels start returning to near-normal levels. And again, that is going to depend on what outages people take. Is there any unplanned outages in that sort of time? But I would assume it's going to take into the third quarter before we see people back at near-normal levels of inventory.

這確實是我們思考乙醯基定價的基礎。我們認為這顯然要到夏季，也就是第二季度，進入第三季度，庫存水準才會真正開始恢復到接近正常水準。再次強調，這將取決於人們承受的停電程度。這段時間是否發生過意外停機？但我認為要到第三季我們才能看到庫存恢復到接近正常的水平。

Our next question is coming from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Maybe just a question on the infrastructure bill that's out there that been proposed has obviously had some ideas about how the corporate tax rate environment is going to evolve, so -- but I don't know if you have any thoughts around that or if there are any particular provisions about it -- within it that are concerning the change in the GILTI provision would impact you or just maybe just any general thoughts on what could happen to your tax rate.

也許只是一個關於已經提出的基礎設施法案的問題，顯然對企業稅率環境將如何演變有一些想法，所以 - 但我不知道您是否對此有任何想法，或者其中是否有任何具體規定 - 其中涉及 GILTI 條款的變化會對您產生影響，或者可能只是對您的稅率可能發生什麼變化的任何一般想法。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. Go ahead.

是的。前進。

Thanks, Vincent. I think, as we look at it, it is still too early for us to really understand exactly where things will land, but we are looking at each component of the various proposals that have been rumored right now. And there -- I think there are ways at which I think with our global network that we will work to mitigate whatever may come about. And I do think -- going back even a year ago, we did call out that we would expect to see our effective tax rate possibly move up a few hundred basis points over the next several years, and I wouldn't come off of that right now. I think, as we look out a couple of years, regardless of what happens with U.S. tax changes, I think we still believe the changes to our effective tax rate will be in that range.

謝謝，文森特。我認為，從我們的角度來看，現在還為時過早，我們無法真正了解事情最終會如何發展，但我們正在研究目前傳聞中的各種提案的每個組成部分。而且我認為，透過我們的全球網絡，我們可以採取一些措施來減輕可能發生的任何問題。我確實認為——早在一年前，我們就曾表示，我們預計未來幾年我們的有效稅率可能會上升幾百個基點，我現在不會改變這一觀點。我認為，展望未來幾年，無論美國稅收如何變化，我們仍然相信有效稅率的變化將在這個範圍內。

Okay. That's helpful. And Lori, maybe just a question in EM. You haven't really seen any negative impact from the chip shortage in autos yet, but your guidance seems to imply that you're anticipating that there'll be some fall-off. And I'm just curious what the trigger for that is going to be, just given you haven't seen it yet.

好的。這很有幫助。還有 Lori，也許這只是 EM 中的一個問題。您還沒有真正看到汽車晶片短缺的任何負面影響，但您的指導似乎暗示您預計會出現一些下滑。我只是好奇這件事的誘因是什麼，因為你還沒看到它。

Yes. Vincent, that's exactly what we're assuming in the second quarter. I mean we really have not seen much impact from the chip shortage yet, again, primarily because we've been in luxury vehicles and platforms like trucks and SUVs which have been prioritized by the automakers and not affected as much.

是的。文森特，這正是我們在第二季所假設的。我的意思是，我們還沒有真正看到晶片短缺帶來的太大影響，主要是因為我們一直處於豪華車和卡車、SUV 等平台之中，這些平台是汽車製造商優先考慮的，因此影響不大。

Now as this drags on, we are starting to see, and you probably saw some announcements by some of the OEMs this week, that they are curtailing production for a period of time because of chips that we do think that will start to affect us in the second quarter. There's also some resin shortages, quite frankly, in the industry that is also impacting the automakers, and you might see something around that, especially around nylon and some other materials. So we do expect to see some impact in auto for us in second quarter, which is why we're calling second quarter flat on EM. But we also expect most of those issues to be resolved through the quarter and back to more normal levels by third quarter.

現在，隨著這種情況的拖延，我們開始看到，你可能也看到本週一些原始設備製造商發布的一些公告，他們正在一段時間內削減晶片產量，我們確實認為這將在第二季度開始對我們產生影響。坦白說，行業中也存在一些樹脂短缺的情況，這也對汽車製造商產生了影響，您可能會看到一些相關情況，尤其是尼龍和其他一些材料。因此，我們確實預計第二季汽車產業會對我們產生一些影響，這就是為什麼我們稱第二季新興市場表現持平。但我們也預計大部分問題將在本季得到解決，並在第三季恢復到更正常的水平。

Your next question is coming from Duffy Fischer from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲‧菲舍爾 (Duffy Fischer)。

Yes. If we think about the delta from your original guidance with the midpoint of $9.75 going up $3.25 to $13, if you just back that through your shares and, let's say, a 14% tax rate, that's about $440 million of EBITDA. Is that a fair way to think about it? And then if it is, what's the delta in free cash flow? Because my guess is as there are some more puts and takes there, working capital probably eats a little bit more cash with higher prices. But if we could work off that $440 million, if that's the right number, increment, how would that flow through the cash flow statement then?

是的。如果我們考慮一下與您最初的指導價之間的差異，即中間價從 9.75 美元上漲 3.25 美元至 13 美元，如果您僅透過股票支持這一數字，並且假設稅率為 14%，那麼 EBITDA 約為 4.4 億美元。這是一種公平的思考方式嗎？如果是的話，自由現金流的增量是多少？因為我的猜測是，由於存在更多的看跌期權和看漲期權，因此隨著價格上漲，營運資本可能會消耗更多的現金。但是如果我們能夠計算出 4.4 億美元，如果這是正確的數字、增量，那麼它將如何流入現金流量表呢？

Yes. Duffy, I think the easiest way, I think, to look at is, originally, we said we were going to do about $500 million of repurchases this year, and now we're saying we're going to do an incremental $200 million to $300 million over that. I think we -- that really is tied to that incremental cash flow that we have this year versus what we had originally planned on.

是的。達菲，我認為最簡單的看法是，最初我們說今年要回購約 5 億美元，現在我們說要在此基礎上增加 2 億至 3 億美元。我認為——這實際上與我們今年的增量現金流與我們最初計劃的增量現金流有關。

And you highlighted where the delta is. It's really on the working capital build, and so it really is just a timing thing. We think that recovery of that, call it, $450 million of EBITDA, the balance that we won't generate in free cash flow, we would expect to collect as we get into next year. So a lot will just depend on how working capital develops for the balance of the year. But right now, our projections are is we will have a working capital build. And it's driven by the fact that pricing is moving up but also that raw materials are moving up.

並且您強調了增量所在的位置。這實際上與營運資本的建立有關，因此這實際上只是一個時間問題。我們認為，收回那筆所謂的 4.5 億美元的 EBITDA，即我們不會在自由現金流中產生的餘額，我們預計在進入明年時能夠收回。因此，很大程度上取決於今年剩餘時間營運資金的發展。但目前，我們的預測是我們將建立營運資金。這是由於價格上漲以及原物料價格上漲所致。

Fair enough. And then maybe just one on the strategy side. Would you anticipate any competitors announcing a major greenfield acetic acid plant this year? And are your customers pushing you to do something larger there? Obviously, you had the issue at Clear Lake before the freeze even, and I think some customers just said that there's so much riding on that one plant. They would like to see some diversification. Can you just talk about your footprint, going forward, on acetic acid and if you think others will announce builds this year?

很公平。然後也許只在戰略方面有一個。您是否預期今年會有競爭對手宣布新建大型醋酸工廠？您的客戶是否鼓勵您在那裡做更大的事情？顯然，甚至在結冰之前，Clear Lake 就遇到了這個問題，我認為有些客戶只是說這家工廠承擔了太多的責任。他們希望看到一些多樣化。您能否談談未來在醋酸方面的發展足跡，以及您是否認為其他人會在今年宣佈建設？

Well, I can't really talk to what others will do. I have no idea. We do know there is some capacity coming up midyear here in acetic acid in China. So certainly, that will help China. We are, of course, doubling our capacity in Clear Lake, so the equivalent of adding a 1,300,000-ton facility in Clear Lake, so another world-scale capacity facility.

嗯，我真的無法談論其他人會做什麼。我不知道。我們確實知道中國今年年中將會增加一些醋酸產能。所以這肯定會對中國有幫助。當然，我們正在將 Clear Lake 的產能增加一倍，這相當於在 Clear Lake 增加一個 1,300,000 噸的設施，即另一個世界級的產能設施。

Look, Clear Lake is the cheapest-producing acetic acid in the world. I think customers are happy to have that kind of stability in the Gulf Coast, and I do -- I expect others to announce maybe do they ultimately get build? That's always a bigger question. I think no one's going to build on what they see as a surge in pricing. It really has to be a sustainable level of pricing. And I mean, look, you can't just go put an acetic acid plant anywhere. You need to have access to methanol or some form of syngas. You need to have access to CO2. You need -- or CO, sorry. You need to have access to hydrogen.

瞧，Clear Lake 是全世界生產醋酸成本最低的工廠。我認為客戶很高興墨西哥灣沿岸有這種穩定性，而且我也希望其他人宣布他們最終是否會建造？這始終是一個更大的問題。我認為沒有人會利用他們所看到的價格上漲來進一步提高產量。它確實必須是一個可持續的定價水平。我的意思是，你不能隨便在任何地方蓋一座醋酸工廠。您需要獲得甲醇或某種形式的合成氣。您需要能夠存取 CO2。您需要——或者 CO，抱歉。您需要獲得氫氣。

So this is not something that you can easily say, "I'm just going to go put a plant somewhere." You need to be an industrial area. You need to have access. And frankly, it's what keeps acetic acid plants from being built kind of everywhere in the world is these other components.

所以這不是你能輕易說「我要去某個地方蓋一座工廠」的事。你需要一個工業區。您需要有存取權限。坦白說，正是這些其他因素阻礙了世界各地建造醋酸工廠。

So what I would say is there may be an announcement. I don't know what others will do, but it's also 3 to 4 years kind of minimum before anybody could actually have one online.

所以我想說的是，可能會有一個公告。我不知道其他人會怎麼做，但至少也需要 3 到 4 年的時間才能真正實現上線。

Our next question is coming from Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德公司的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Yes. I guess, first off, on the velocity of pricing that you're seeing in the AC segment across your major commodities, how does that compare to the 2018 peak? And then related to that, inventory levels across multiple supply chains seem to be very low based on commentary, thus far, in the earnings season and have been part of that. And so even as supply sort of gets rebased higher post the first half disruption, do you think we'll be at a higher level for longer sort of dynamic relative to the duration of the spike that you saw in 2018?

是的。我想，首先，就您在 AC 領域看到的主要商品的定價速度而言，與 2018 年的高峰相比如何？與此相關的是，根據迄今為止的收益季評論，多個供應鏈的庫存水準似乎非常低，並且一直是其中的一部分。因此，即使在上半年供應中斷之後重新回到高位，您是否認為相對於 2018 年看到的峰值持續時間，我們將在更長的動態時間內處於更高的水平？

Yes. Let me talk about that a little bit, Ghansham. So we, of course, do expect a record Q2 in acetyls, as we laid out in our documents. And I think it's really based on a couple of things. I mean one is we have had a significant lift in foundational earnings even since 2018. So we've added RDP. We've got other capacity around emulsions and VAM through low-cost debottlenecks. We've continued to refine the model. And frankly, we've just gotten better and better every year about how to use the optionality available to us and how to really flex our model.

是的。讓我稍微談論一下這個，甘沙姆。因此，我們當然預計乙醯基的第二季銷量將創歷史新高，正如我們在文件中所述。我認為這確實基於幾件事。我的意思是，自 2018 年以來，我們的基礎收益已經顯著提升。因此我們添加了 RDP。透過低成本消除瓶頸，我們獲得了有關乳液和 VAM 的其他產能。我們不斷完善該模型。坦白說，我們在如何利用可用的可選性以及如何真正靈活運用我們的模式方面每年都在變得越來越好。

We've also seen improving industry dynamics. Acetyls is growing a couple -- a little bit over GDP every year. We haven't seen any major capacity addition, so it's a better industry dynamic of supplier supply/demand chain.

我們也看到行業動態正在改善。乙醯基的年增長率略高於 GDP。我們尚未看到任何重大的產能增加，因此供應商供應/需求鏈的產業動態較好。

If you look at 2018, 2018 was very much supply-driven. Inventory and demands were pretty much in normal levels. But starting at the end of '17, you saw a whole series of shutdown in the industry, especially in the Western Hemisphere, which really drove a supply shortage and drove that price up to that $700 to $800 a ton. But remember, that was at methanol around $450 or so. Crude was around $80 right then.

如果你回顧 2018 年，你會發現 2018 年很大程度上是由供應驅動的。庫存和需求基本上處於正常水準。但從 2017 年底開始，你會看到整個產業出現一系列停工，尤其是在西半球，這確實導致了供應短缺，並將價格推高至每噸 700 至 800 美元。但請記住，當時甲醇的價格約為 450 美元左右。當時原油價格約為 80 美元。

2021 is fundamentally different in that we went into this -- it's both a supply and a demand problem. I mean we've seen really robust demand since at least the fourth quarter of '20 as the world moved into recovery, and again, not just in acetic acid, but also in VAM and emulsions, which is a little different than 2018, which is really focused on acetic acid. And our inventories were very low as we went into this year into 2021, and that was true globally. So it's already a really tight supply/demand market. And then we had Winter Storm Uri, which we lost 3 of the 4 large producers in the U.S. for a considerable period of time, I mean, a minimum of about 4 weeks as everything had to get back up and running. And we've done that, but we still haven't seen methanol prices go way up. I mean, methanol is still around $350. Crude is at $60.

2021 年與我們所遇到的情況有著根本的不同──這既是供給問題，也是需求問題。我的意思是，至少從 2020 年第四季開始，隨著世界經濟復甦，我們看到了非常強勁的需求，不僅是醋酸，還有 VAM 和乳液，這與 2018 年略有不同，2018 年的重點是醋酸。進入 2021 年，我們的庫存非常低，全球都是如此。所以這已經是一個非常緊張的供需市場。然後我們又遭遇了冬季風暴“烏裡”，導緻美國四大生產商中的三家在相當長的一段時間內停產，我的意思是，至少有四周的時間，因為一切都必須恢復正常運轉。我們已經這樣做了，但甲醇價格仍未大幅上漲。我的意思是，甲醇的價格仍在 350 美元左右。原油價格為每桶60美元。

So we have a larger margin. Now that's partially offset by higher precious metal prices, so there is some offset there. But fundamentally, this is -- I would say if this is a deeper disconnect between supply and demand than we had in '18, and that's why we're seeing record level pricing in China that reflects that. So I think -- I do think there's the -- a possibility this is going to be longer and bigger for a period of time than 2018 was. Again, it will just depend on how fast recovery happens around the world. Do demand levels stay up, what happens with methanol pricing, what happens with precious metal pricing, all of that will play into. But I do definitely think the probability -- and what we've baked into our revised outlook is that this continues through Q2, and We continue to see somewhat elevated pricing through Q3 as well.

因此我們的利潤空間更大。現在，這部分被貴金屬價格上漲所抵消，因此存在一些抵消作用。但從根本上來說，我想說，如果這次的供需脫節比 2018 年更嚴重，那麼我們看到中國的價格創下了歷史新高，這反映了這一點。所以我認為——我確實認為——這種影響可能會比 2018 年持續更長的時間，影響更大。再次，這僅取決於全球復甦的速度。需求水準是否會保持高位，甲醇價格會如何變化，貴金屬價格會如何變化，所有這些都將產生影響。但我確實認為這種可能性——我們在修訂後的展望中已經考慮到了這一點——是這種情況將持續到第二季​​度，而且我們也將繼續看到價格在第三季度有所上漲。

Our next question is coming from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

How have you been handling the inflation and ethylene prices in the United States? I think spot ethylene is maybe $0.64 a pound. Or are you able to buy much, much more at contract? Or is this an inflationary factor that you're feeling?

您如何應對美國的通貨膨脹和乙烯價格？我認為現貨乙烯價格大概是每磅 0.64 美元。或者你可以透過合約購買更多的東西嗎？還是您感覺到了這是通膨因素？

Yes, Jeff, I mean, we're certainly feeling the inflationary factor. I think the good news is we anticipated this coming back in fourth quarter of last year already and started moving prices in Engineered Materials to reflect this. And of course, that price also in the acetyls gets reflected more quickly. So although it is an inflationary pressure, we've been able to push that through in our pricing and basically maintain the same level of variable margins.

是的，傑夫，我的意思是，我們確實感受到了通貨膨脹的因素。我認為好消息是，我們早在去年第四季就預料到了這種情況，並開始調整工程材料的價格以反映這種情況。當然，乙醯基的價格也會更快反映出來。因此，儘管存在通膨壓力，但我們已經能夠在定價中解決這個問題，並基本上保持相同的可變利潤率水準。

Okay. And then for my follow-up, can you -- so your adjusted tax rate is 14%, and you have this tremendously profitable U.S. operation. How do you keep your tax rate so low? Why isn't your tax rate higher?

好的。然後我的後續問題是，您的調整後稅率是 14%，而且您在美國的業務利潤豐厚。你們如何維持如此低的稅率？為什麼你們的稅率不更高？

Yes. Jeff, I think it's important to remember, we still have a fairly sizable portion of our earnings that come through from our equity affiliates, and that comes in at an after-tax rate. And so it is important to keep that in mind, and that is one of the factors for the tax rate remaining low. And I do think after U.S. tax reform, it has given us certainly some advantages from the U.S. side of our operations, but we really are a global operation, which about 1/3 of our sales in the U.S., 1/3 in Europe and 1/3 in Asia. And so that rate has been able to remain very low because of that balance.

是的。傑夫，我認為需要記住的是，我們仍有相當大一部分收益來自我們的股權附屬公司，而且是稅後收入。因此，牢記這一點很重要，這也是稅率維持在低點的因素之一。我確實認為，美國稅改之後，我們在美國的業務確實獲得了一些優勢，但我們實際上是一家全球性企業，其中約 1/3 的銷售額來自美國，1/3 來自歐洲，1/3 來自亞洲。由於這種平衡，利率得以維持在非常低的水平。

Now what you're seeing is we had originally guided to an effective tax rate of 13% for this year. But with the elevated earnings we're seeing in some of our higher tax jurisdictions, particularly China this year, we actually see that moving up. And that's why we raised that guidance to 14%.

現在您看到的是我們最初預計今年的有效稅率為 13%。但隨著我們看到一些高稅率地區（尤其是今年中國）的收入增加，我們實際上看到這一數字正在上升。這就是我們將該預期提高至 14% 的原因。

Our next question is coming from John McNulty from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

Yes. In the acetyl chain, how should we think about the risk of any demand destruction? It seems like there's a lot of other commodities that are up as well. Have you seen any demand destruction at this point? And how should we think about that?

是的。在乙醯基鏈中，我們應該如何考慮任何需求破壞的風險？看起來還有很多其他商品的價格也在上漲。您現在是否看到任何需求破壞？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Yes. We really haven't seen any demand destruction, John. I mean there is always a possibility, of course, vinyl acetates could go to acrylates But I mean that's not a cheap switch nor is that one people are going to do in the short term. So at this point in time, we've really been just trying to focus on keeping our contract customers supplied, which was what they absolutely need at this point in time. And we haven't seen any signs yet of demand destruction because of switching to other commodities or for other reasons. In fact, we just see demand continuing to strengthen across the globe.

是的。我們確實沒有看到任何需求破壞，約翰。我的意思是，當然，醋酸乙烯酯可以轉化為丙烯酸酯，這種可能性總是存在的，但這並不是一種廉價的轉變，也不是人們短期內會做的事情。因此，目前，我們實際上只是試圖集中精力為我們的合約客戶提供供應，這正是他們目前絕對需要的。我們還沒有看到任何由於轉向其他商品或其他原因而導致需求破壞的跡象。事實上，我們看到全球需求持續增強。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess the follow-up question would just be, given the severity and proliferation of all the outages that we've seen, have you seen a flurry of interest from customers looking to kind of partner with you in a more meaningful way, maybe willing to pay higher prices for the stability or the surety of supply? And like how should we think about that as it plays out over the -- potentially the next few years in terms of stabilizing your platform even more?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我想後續的問題就是，鑑於我們所看到的所有停電事件的嚴重性和擴散性，您是否看到客戶表現出濃厚的興趣，希望以更有意義的方式與您合作，也許願意為供應的穩定性或保障支付更高的價格？我們應該如何看待這個問題，以便在未來幾年內進一步穩定您的平台？

Yes. We certainly have seen -- I'd say across all of our businesses, we have seen customers more interested in contract arrangements versus just spot arrangements because, quite frankly, we've prioritized our contract customers which -- as we've had shortages, both in acetyls and in EM, those customers that we have contracts with, we have worked very closely to make sure we could get them. Again, not necessarily all the volume they wanted, but the volume they absolutely needed to keep running so that they wouldn't have any plant shutdowns or outages. For the noncontract customers, we haven't been able to do that. And so certainly, we see this driving more people into wanting to have contract-type arrangements than we've had in the past.

是的。我們當然已經看到——我想說，在我們所有的業務中，我們已經看到客戶對合約安排比現貨安排更感興趣，因為坦率地說，我們優先考慮我們的合約客戶——由於我們的乙醯基和 EM 都出現短缺，我們與那些簽訂了合約的客戶密切合作，以確保我們能夠得到他們的貨源。再說一遍，不一定是他們想要的全部產量，而是他們絕對需要保持運作的產量，這樣他們就不會出現工廠停工或斷電的情況。對於非合約客戶，我們還無法做到這一點。因此，我們肯定會看到，與過去相比，這促使更多的人希望簽訂合約類型的協議。

Our next question is coming from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Lori, just wanted to sort of revisit the back half guidance, specifically on the acetyl chain side of things. Obviously, conscious of the fact that you guys just have visibility, call it, through June. But just in hearing some of the remarks that you made, turnarounds -- certain turnarounds being pushed into Q3, call it, then the impact of Uri. Obviously, the fact that inventories are fairly lean even pre the winter storm and they got even tighter, and it will take us through, call it, Q3 just to normalize inventory levels. And then there's a whole backfilling of order side of things and the like. So long story short, I mean, is there a fairly high probability that this moderation in supply/demand fundamentals and pricing that you're looking for within acetyl chain could actually surprise to the upside, just keeping all of these sort of moving parts in mind?

洛里，我只是想重新審視後半部的指導，特別是關於乙醯鏈方面的內容。顯然，你們意識到，直到六月，你們才有可見性。但是，聽到您所說的一些言論，扭轉局面——某些扭轉局面被推遲到第三季度，然後是 Uri 的影響。顯然，即使在冬季風暴來臨之前，庫存就已經相當緊張，現在庫存更加緊張，我們需要經過所謂的第三季度才能使庫存水準正常化。然後還有整個秩序方面的補充等等。長話短說，我的意思是，考慮到所有這些活動部件，您所期待的乙醯鏈內供需基本面和定價的緩和，實際上是否可能帶來意外的上漲？

Look, there's always that possibility. I mean, again, we put out guidance based on what we -- kind of our assumptions about what we think is going to happen, especially through the third quarter, I think, is the real question here. Obviously -- look, there's new capacity coming on in the third quarter in China, so we've baked that into acetyls. That should help stabilize the supply/demand situation there. But if we had -- if we saw extended turnarounds, if we saw unplanned outages, I mean, clearly, that could extend this period of higher pricing for longer and could result in an upside. It's always a possibility, for sure. But this is our best outlook. And you have to remember, we still do expect seasonality in fourth quarter. I mean seasonality is pretty typical. We even saw it last year, especially in acetyls, as you see the construction market generally ramp down a bit because of weather and other constraints in the fourth quarter. So you should still be baking in some seasonality in the fourth quarter back to a more typical level.

瞧，總是有這種可能性的。我的意思是，我們再次根據我們對將要發生的事情的假設提出了指導，特別是在第三季度，我認為，這是真正的問題。顯然——你看，中國第三季將有新的產能投入使用，所以我們將其融入乙醯基中。這應該有助於穩定那裡的供需狀況。但如果我們看到延長的周轉時間，如果我們看到計劃外的停機，我的意思是，顯然，這可能會延長這一高價期，並可能帶來上行空間。毫無疑問，這始終是有可能的。但這是我們最好的展望。你必須記住，我們仍然預計第四季會出現季節性。我的意思是季節性非常典型。我們甚至在去年就看到了這種情況，特別是在乙醯基方面，正如你所看到的，由於第四季度的天氣和其他限制因素，建築市場普遍有所下滑。因此，您仍應該將第四季度的一些季節性因素調整到更典型的水平。

Understood, understood. Very helpful. And as a follow-up, on the longer-term side of things, obviously, we've been hearing about the Biden sort of greenhouse emission reduction plans as much as 50% by 2030. How do you feel that you guys are set up to execute, call it, in line with that? And how are you guys thinking about sort of the CapEx associated with that in the run-up to sort of, call it, 2030?

明白了，明白了。非常有幫助。接下來，從長期來看，顯然，我們聽說了拜登提出的到 2030 年溫室氣體減排計劃，減排幅度高達 50%。您覺得你們準備如何執行，如何稱呼，如何與此一致？那麼，你們如何看待 2030 年與之相關的資本支出呢？

Yes. Unfortunately, there's not really enough details out about the plan to know what that really means in terms of how it's measured, can you get credit for materials that you make that help, for example, for lightweighting and things that help to reduce other people's greenhouse gas emissions.

是的。不幸的是，關於該計劃的細節還不夠多，以至於無法知道它在衡量標準方面的真正含義，你製造的材料是否有助於減輕重量以及有助於減少其他人的溫室氣體排放？

I mean, let's be honest, on the one hand, it's a real opportunity for us because many of the products that we make will be needed by others to meet that kind of a commitment. Even in the construction industry, if you think about acetyls and how much of that goes into weatherproofing and insulation and things like that, which would also be necessary, it could be a huge opportunity for us. As far as reducing our greenhouse gas emissions of our own facilities, that really has to do with heat recovery, lower furnace firing, uses of alternative energy like our solar contract at Clear Lake, as well as recovery of venting of CO2, which, as we're doing in Clear Lake, maybe there's options to recycle back into our operations.

我的意思是，說實話，一方面，這對我們來說是一個真正的機會，因為其他人需要我們生產的許多產品來履行這種承諾。即使在建築業，如果你考慮一下乙醯基，以及它有多少用於防風雨和絕緣等用途，這也是必要的，這對我們來說可能是一個巨大的機會。至於減少我們自己設施的溫室氣體排放，這實際上與熱回收、降低爐膛燃燒、使用替代能源（如我們在 Clear Lake 簽訂的太陽能合約）以及回收二氧化碳排放有關，正如我們在 Clear Lake 所做的那樣，也許可以選擇將其回收到我們的營運中。

So I don't know. We don't know yet. Is it possible to reduce our own footprint by that amount? Again, we need to see the details of the plan. But I would say, in general, it's probably more of an opportunity for us than a threat at this point in time.

所以我不知道。我們還不知道。我們有可能將自己的足跡減少那麼多嗎？再次，我們需要了解該計劃的細節。但我想說，總的來說，目前這對我們來說可能更多的是一個機遇，而不是威脅。

Our next question is coming from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Yes. Let me just follow up on that second half outlook question. The pace of buybacks is set to slow down in the second half. Is that more a function of that lack of visibility in the second half? And is that something that you may revisit when we -- depending on how the results come in?

是的。讓我繼續回答關於下半年前景的問題。下半年回購步伐預計將放緩。這是否更多是因為下半場缺乏可見性？當我們得出結果時，您是否會重新考慮這一點？

Yes. Look, I think what we were trying to indicate is we'll have done kind of our $500 million of buybacks in the first half. As we see our financial outlook improving for the full year, we basically showed that additional cash available to us is buybacks to make sure that the shareholders will benefit from the kind of the additional earnings this year. If we have higher earnings, I would anticipate we'll put those into buybacks. But it still doesn't change our desire to do significant M&A this year and next year. Remember, we still have $1 billion -- even after these buybacks, we'll still have $1 billion on the balance sheet in order to put towards meaningful M&A.

是的。看，我認為我們試圖表明的是，我們將在上半年完成 5 億美元的回購。隨著我們看到全年財務前景的改善，我們基本上表明我們可用的額外現金是回購，以確保股東能夠從今年的額外收益中受益。如果我們有更高的收益，我預計我們會將其用於回購。但這仍然不會改變我們今年和明年進行重大併購的願望。請記住，我們仍然有 10 億美元——即使在這些回購之後，我們的資產負債表上仍然會有 10 億美元用於有意義的併購。

So I think it really was more of an indication, if you will, and our belief that we want to make sure that the shareholders benefit from this increased earnings outlook we're seeing from this year, and so we reflected that as buybacks.

因此，我認為這實際上更像是一種跡象，如果你願意的話，我們相信我們希望確保股東從今年看到的獲利前景成長中受益，因此我們將其反映為回購。

Got you. Got you. Very helpful. And I was struck by the commentary in the prepared remarks regarding having to airlift materials because of the block in the Suez, which begs the question. You broke down the impact of the winter storm and what have you in terms of, I guess, $40 million of repairs and $35 million of higher raw costs, et cetera. But what about logistics? Because obviously, you had to spend more on logistics. What sort of headwind did you face on logistics in the first quarter? And what's your expectation here in the second quarter?

明白了。明白了。非常有幫助。我對準備好的發言中關於由於蘇伊士運河堵塞而必須空運物資的評論感到震驚，這引出了一個問題。您詳細分析了冬季風暴的影響，我想，其中包括 4000 萬美元的維修費用和 3500 萬美元的原材料成本上漲等等。但物流怎麼樣？因為顯然你必須在物流上花費更多。第一季度，你們在物流上遇到了哪些阻力？您對第二季的預期是什麼？

Yes. I don't have an exact number on that, Frank. What I would say is we -- this -- while this was a very unusual situation with Uri, I would also say we work very fluidly and flexibly to always supply our customers. So these are all things we've tried in one form or another. We probably did more of them in a short period of time now. But I mean they're just -- they're baked into our cost of supply. So I don't have a really good sense of is it $10 million, $20 million. I don't know what we spent, in addition, during Uri, but definitely more than typical, but we always work very hard to supply our customers.

是的。弗蘭克，我對此沒有確切的數字。我想說的是，雖然這對 Uri 來說是一個非常不尋常的情況，但我還想說，我們的工作非常流暢和靈活，可以始終為客戶提供服務。這些都是我們以某種形式嘗試過的事情。我們可能在短時間內完成了更多的事情。但我的意思是它們只是——它們已經計入我們的供應成本中。所以我真的不知道這個數字是 1000 萬美元還是 2000 萬美元。我不知道我們在 Uri 期間還花了多少錢，但肯定比平常多，但我們總是非常努力地為客戶提供服務。

Yes, Frank. And I would just add, I think we were in a pretty tight situation, even going into Uri, and so this has made it even tighter. So our teams are really working on getting creative, not just for the second quarter, but we think this could continue into the second half. Logistics are going to be tight probably for the balance of the year, so it's something we're just trying to stay ahead of.

是的，弗蘭克。我還要補充一點，我認為我們的處境已經相當緊張，甚至進入了烏裡，而這件事讓情況變得更加緊張。因此，我們的團隊正在努力發揮創造力，不僅僅是為了第二季度，我們認為這種勢頭可能會持續到下半年。今年剩下的時間裡，物流可能會比較緊張，所以我們只是在努力保持領先。

Our next question is coming from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Yes. Lori, you talked about big green project of making methanol from recycled CO2 at Clear Lake. Where is the CO2 coming from? And what is the all-in cost of methanol from recycled CO2 versus, let's say, based on natural gas?

是的。洛里，你談到了在清湖利用回收的二氧化碳製造甲醇的大型綠色計畫。二氧化碳從哪裡來？那麼，與基於天然氣的甲醇相比，回收二氧化碳生產的甲醇的總成本是多少？

So the methanol -- or sorry, the CO2, P.J., is coming from our facilities and our partner facilities in Clear Lake. So they're vent streamed off operating facilities that are high CO2 and fairly pure. So that's what makes this very affordable for us at Clear Lake as we can take those streams, further compress them, further purify them and add them directly to our synthesis gas at Fairway, where it's converted into methanol.

因此，甲醇——或者抱歉，二氧化碳，P.J.，來自我們的設施和我們在 Clear Lake 的合作夥伴設施。因此，它們從運作設施中排出的二氧化碳含量高且相當純淨。因此，這對 Clear Lake 的我們來說非常實惠，因為我們可以獲得這些氣體流，進一步壓縮，進一步淨化，然後將它們直接添加到 Fairway 的合成氣中，在那裡將其轉化為甲醇。

So what makes this really attractive for us is we have spare synthesis capacity currently at Fairway. We have a source of hydrogen available to us to ramp that unit up from the hydrogen grid, industrial grid in that area, and we have availability of high-purity CO2 vent streams available to us. So with that, basically, the cost of producing methanol from recycled CO2 is really comparable to our normal cost of producing methanol from natural gas.

因此，這對我們來說真正有吸引力的是，我們目前在 Fairway 擁有多餘的合成能力。我們擁有來自該地區氫氣網、工業網的氫氣源，可用於啟動該裝置，並且我們擁有可用的高純度二氧化碳排氣流。因此，基本上，利用回收的二氧化碳生產甲醇的成本與我們利用天然氣生產甲醇的正常成本相當。

Okay. And then there were a couple of questions on the Biden plan. And ExxonMobil just recently announced a massive CCS project in Texas or on the Gulf Coast on back of that Biden plan. Is there something you could do there to participate as either as a supplier of CO2 or as an offtaker of CO2 there?

好的。然後又問了幾個關於拜登計畫的問題。埃克森美孚公司最近剛宣布，將在拜登計畫的支持下，在德州或墨西哥灣沿岸開展一項大規模的 CCS 計畫。您可以作為二氧化碳供應商或二氧化碳承購商參與其中嗎？

Yes. It's not something we've looked at yet, P.J. I mean this project is several years down the road yet, quite frankly. And the real question is what is the purity of the CO2 streams, how much do you have to cost to clean it up. I mean I like the idea of recycling CO2 more than just sticking it in the ground, to be fair. But you have to look at the economics of it and how that would -- but that -- it's clearly something we're looking at, at our facilities or other facilities around the world, which is are there other opportunities to do this, to use this technology in a cost-effective way.

是的。P.J.，我們還沒有考慮過這個問題。坦白說，這個計畫還需要幾年的時間。真正的問題是二氧化碳氣流的純度是多少，清理它需要多少錢。我的意思是，公平地說，我更喜歡回收二氧化碳的想法，而不僅僅是把它埋在地下。但你必須考慮它的經濟性以及它將如何——但這顯然是我們正在研究的事情，無論是在我們的設施還是在世界各地的其他設施，是否有其他機會做到這一點，以具有成本效益的方式使用這項技術。

Our next question is coming from Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

A really nice start for the year. Lori, when you think about the acetyl chain, and I know it's a little bit early, but you guys talked about $900 million to $1 billion in adjusted EBIT for '23. I guess investors should think about that for '22 to reset back to, let's say, $900 million or so. Is that the right way to look at it? And if so, what do you have in growth in EM and maybe cost savings, other areas to potentially offset the year-over-year delta in '22 versus '21?

今年真是美好的開始。洛里，當你想到乙醯鏈時，我知道現在有點早，但你們談到了 23 年調整後的息稅前利潤為 9 億至 10 億美元。我想投資者應該考慮將 22 年的資產重置回 9 億美元左右。這是正確的看待方式嗎？如果是這樣，那麼在新興市場的成長、成本節約和其他領域方面，你們有哪些措施可以抵銷 22 年與 21 年相比的年增幅？

Yes. But '21 to '22 is going to be a difficult comparison, assuming we kind of go to normalized earnings because we have had that surge up in acetyls. I mean we really consider our acetyl foundational level still $800 million now, moving towards $900 million over the next 2 years. So I think that's the right way to think about that based on the capacity adds and other things that we've had. We expect we'll continue to see continued productivity. I would assume that's in there at about $0.25 EPS kind of year-on-year, so we'll continue to see that to offset.

是的。但是，2021 年到 2022 年的比較將會很困難，假設我們的收益達到正常化，因為乙醯基的數量已經激增。我的意思是，我們確實認為我們的乙醯基礎水平現在仍然為 8 億美元，並在未來 2 年內達到 9 億美元。因此，我認為這是根據容量增加和我們已經擁有的其他事物來思考這個問題的正確方法。我們預計我們將繼續看到持續的生產力。我估計這大約是每股收益 0.25 美元左右，所以我們將繼續看到這一抵消。

EM is going to continue to grow kind of at that 10% CAGR or higher every year, so that will also be in there to offset. And of course, I think the other thing we're -- timing is, of course, uncertain, but the other thing is that will be important for us over the next 2 years is M&A and having M&A to also complement that growth -- organic growth strategy that we have for our businesses.

新興市場每年將繼續以 10% 或更高的複合年增長率成長，因此這也將起到抵消作用。當然，我認為另一件事——時機當然是不確定的，但另一件事是，在未來兩年對我們來說重要的是併購，併購也可以補充這種成長——我們為業務制定的有機成長策略。

Got it. And then just on the second half for EM. You had 7% volume growth in first quarter. Obviously, 2Q is going to be a normally strong volume growth. But what's sort of underpinning the outlook for the second half for EM? Or are you going to be at that kind of 10%, 11% double-digit growth? And if you are, what's going to drive that?

知道了。接下來是 EM 的下半部。第一季銷量成長了 7%。顯然，第二季的銷量將正常強勁成長。但新興市場下半年的前景受到哪些因素的支持呢？或者你會達到 10%、11% 的兩位數成長率嗎？如果是的話，是什麼推動了這個進程？

Yes. So what we're really saying for EM is second quarter, we think, will be flat to first quarter because we are expecting some softening in auto based on the chip shortage and the resin shortage, but we are seeing recovery of medical and not just the implants. We think implants, we'll continue to need through the end of the year to really get back to full rate. But in other areas of medical, we are making really good progress.

是的。因此，對於新興市場，我們真正想說的是，我們認為第二季將與第一季持平，因為我們預計基於晶片短缺和樹脂短缺，汽車行業將出現一些疲軟，但我們看到醫療行業正在復蘇，而不僅僅是植入物。我們認為，我們需要到今年年底才能真正恢復全速。但在其他醫學領域，我們正在取得良好的進展。

So for example, for our diabetes applications in medical, we're seeing really significant growth in those areas going forward. So just to give you an example, so our diabetes applications were up 50% from first quarter of last year to first quarter of this year. So that growth in other elements of medical, other elements of 5G and electronics and industrial applications, those will continue to grow and support that kind of 10% CAGR year-on-year growth going forward.

例如，對於我們在醫療領域的糖尿病應用，我們看到這些領域未來將出現非常顯著的成長。舉個例子，從去年第一季到今年第一季，我們的糖尿病應用增加了 50%。因此，醫療、5G、電子和工業應用等其他領域的成長將繼續成長，並支持未來 10% 的複合年增長率。

Our next question is coming from Matthew DeYoe from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

The beaten guide on EM is pretty impressive. It seems to indicate the $550 million number you gave just like 52 weeks ago for the full year is already pretty stale. So did something change in EM? Was that just conservatism? Is there something perhaps about the back half that we're not necessarily picking up on? I mean I'm just kind of going off normal seasonality in your 2Q guide and exit rates and stuff like that.

EM 上的擊敗指南非常令人印象深刻。這似乎表明，52 週前您給出的全年 5.5 億美元的數字已經相當陳舊了。那麼 EM 有什麼變化嗎？那隻是保守主義嗎？關於後半部分，我們是否可能沒有註意到一些事情？我的意思是，我只是根據你的第二季指南中的正常季節性以及退出率等來判斷。

No. I think we've -- look, we've seen continued good recovery. I mean at the time of Investor Day, I mean, we did have concerns about automotive, although we haven't seen the impact at that time. I think we will see those concerns develop in Q2.

不。我認為我們已經——看，我們已經看到了持續良好的復甦。我的意思是，在投資者日的時候，我們確實對汽車行業感到擔憂，儘管當時我們還沒有看到其影響。我認為我們將在第二季度看到這些擔憂的發展。

Now we do see an end of that side as well, so we do see Q3 strengthening and Q4. But as we get further into the year, as we get better visibility, as we have visibility now into the June time frame, we really see that continued growth. And despite the resurgence of COVID, which is kind of the other concern we called out, we really haven't seen that impacting our demand numbers in any part of the world besides the very issues around the globe with COVID. So I think we are getting more confident in that $550 million number and above going forward, and so very confident in that growth rate I just called out.

現在我們也確實看到了這一方面的結束，所以我們確實看到 Q3 和 Q4 的加強。但隨著我們進一步進入今年，隨著我們獲得更好的可見性，隨著我們現在對 6 月的時間範圍有了更清晰的了解，我們確實看到了持續的成長。儘管新冠疫情死灰復燃，這是我們提出的另一個擔憂，但除了全球新冠疫情本身的問題之外，我們還沒有看到它對世界任何地方的需求數量產生影響。因此，我認為我們對未來 5.5 億美元及以上的數字越來越有信心，而且對我剛才提到的成長率非常有信心。

Okay. And the $400 million EBIT number is a pretty big number. It kind of implies to me that you're pulling product out of VAM and selling it into acid. Is that -- is it true? I mean, I think in the past, you talked about pushing more and more downstream and were 50% to 55% of your acids then moved down to VAM. Did you move backwards on that? And have you been more opportunistic in just selling into acid? And subsequently, has that tightened VAM as a result?

好的。4億美元的息稅前利潤是一個相當大的數字。對我來說，這意味著你正在從 VAM 中提取產品並將其出售給酸。這是真的嗎？我的意思是，我認為在過去，你們談到要將越來越多的酸推向下游，然後有 50% 到 55% 的酸會轉移到 VAM。你在那方面退縮了嗎？您是否更傾向於投機取巧地將產品賣給酸廠？那麼，這是否會導致 VAM 收緊？

So not really. I mean the interesting thing about this surge in pricing for acetyls, which is different than 2018, as we've seen the price hold, not just for acid, which is what happened in 2018. And in fact, in 2018, we did move a lot of stuff back to acid and sold it as acids to the market. What's different here is we are seeing that price pull-through in VAM and emulsions as well because of the really strong end markets for those products. So I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but I would say we've not made that shift back to acid in the same way. I think because we have seen pull-through in the pricing into the downstream derivatives as well.

所以事實並非如此。我的意思是，乙醯價格飆升的有趣之處在於，這與 2018 年不同，因為我們已經看到價格保持不變，而不僅僅是酸，這是 2018 年發生的情況。事實上，2018 年我們確實將許多東西重新轉化成酸，並以酸的形式賣給市場。這裡的不同之處在於，我們看到 VAM 和乳液的價格也出現了上漲，因為這些產品的終端市場非常強勁。所以我沒有確切的數字，但我想說我們還沒有以同樣的方式轉向酸性。我認為是因為我們已經看到下游衍生性商品的定價也出現了上漲。

Our next question is coming from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Yes. Lori, just to follow up on acetic acid. In your prepared remarks last night, it's evident that you plan to run your whole network very hard. The one exception to that was acetic at Clear Lake, where you said you're at 80% due to limited availability of certain third-party raw materials. Can you expand on that? What is constrained right now upstream of acid? And timing-wise, when would you expect to be able to run full out of Clear Lake?

是的。洛瑞，只是想跟進一下乙酸的狀況。從您昨晚準備好的演講中可以看出，您計劃非常努力地運營整個網路。唯一的例外是 Clear Lake 的乙酸，您說由於某些第三方原料的供應有限，您的乙酸利用率只有 80%。能詳細闡述嗎？目前酸的上游受到什麼限制？從時間上看，您預計什麼時候能夠充分利用 Clear Lake？

Yes. So look, a number of our third-party suppliers of raw materials had issues during the freeze. Some of them have had to take turnarounds in order to properly repair their equipment. We were down around 70%. We're now up at 80% as they fully bring facilities back online. We really expect by the end of the second quarter to be fully out of this, maybe even a little bit before and back to 100%.

是的。所以，我們的許多第三方原料供應商在凍結期間都遇到了問題。為了妥善修理設備，其中一些公司不得不採取周轉措施。我們下降了約 70%。隨著他們全面恢復設施，我們現在的恢復率已達到 80%。我們確實希望到第二季末能夠完全擺脫這種困境，甚至可能提前一點，恢復到 100%。

Okay. And then I had a follow-up for Scott on free cash flow. You indicated in the prepared remarks your goal for this year is $900 million or better. Having sorted through our model last night, I was frankly coming up with a larger number. And so I was wondering if you might refresh us a bit on CapEx and exactly how much working capital we are penciling in at this point and also whether or not you have any, call it, extraordinary items beyond the $100 million settlement with the European Commission.

好的。然後我對斯科特的自由現金流進行了跟進。您在準備好的發言中表示，今年的目標是 9 億美元或更高。昨晚整理完我們的模型後，坦白說，我得到了一個更大的數字。因此，我想知道您是否可以向我們簡單介紹一下資本支出，以及我們目前預計的營運資本到底有多少，以及除了與歐盟委員會達成的 1 億美元和解協議之外，您是否還有其他所謂的非常項目。

Yes. Kevin, I think the simple answer on extraordinary items is nothing more than the $100 million that was already baked in. CapEx is -- we're planning on a number between $500 million and $550 million for the year, and a lot of that will just depend upon when expenses come in from a timing standpoint. We -- inherent in that number is something towards the higher end of that range. And then the balance is a working capital build, as I stated earlier. Now I think it was Duffy who called out incremental $450 million or so of EBITDA versus our original guide at the beginning of the year. And that's in the right ballpark, and we do expect to collect that as cash. It's just likely a portion of that is going to slip into 2022 because of that working capital build.

是的。凱文，我認為關於非常規項目的簡單答案只不過是已經包含的 1 億美元。資本支出是——我們計劃今年的支出在 5 億美元到 5.5 億美元之間，其中很大一部分將取決於從時間角度來看費用何時到達。我們——這個數字本身就接近這個範圍的高端。然後餘額就是營運資金的建立，正如我之前所說的。現在我認為是達菲宣布的 EBITDA 與我們年初的原始預期相比增加了 4.5 億美元左右。這是正確的估計，我們確實希望以現金形式收取。由於營運資金的增加，其中一部分很可能將延續到 2022 年。

Our next question is coming from Alex Yefremov from KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov。

You had quite healthy sequential improvement in Engineered Materials. Could you try to walk through this sequential bridge in earnings and understand the benefit of the budgets such as volume leverage, positive mix? And maybe is there an uplift in less differentiated polymers where supply/demand may have been tighter?

你們在工程材料方面取得了相當健康的連續改進。您能否嘗試了解收益中的這個連續橋樑並了解預算的好處，例如數量槓桿、積極組合？也許差異化程度較低的聚合物的供應/需求可能更加緊張，其價格是否會上漲？

Yes. So let me try to take that. let's see if I understand your question correctly. So if you look at kind of fourth quarter to first quarter, yes, we did have a significant uplift in earnings, I mean, almost doubled our earnings in Engineered Materials. So we had about a 6% increase in volume, which I would just say is continued growth in demand really across all sectors.

是的。讓我嘗試一下。讓我們看看我是否正確理解了你的問題。因此，如果你看一下第四季度與第一季的情況，是的，我們的收益確實有了顯著的提升，我的意思是，我們的工程材料收益幾乎翻了一番。因此我們的銷量成長了約 6%，我想說的是，所有行業的需求都在持續成長。

Really in EU, we saw automotive returning to kind of pre-COVID levels, joining the U.S. and Asia that have gotten there in the fourth quarter. We saw industrial continue to go up, and we did see continued recovery in our medical, again, not just implants, but other areas of medical now that -- because of the programs that we put in place are really starting to show up. So that was about a 6% increase, then we had about a 6% increase in price. And I would say about half of that were proactive pricing measures that we took last year to get in front of the raw materials, and then about half of that was really product mix. So again, more medical, more higher-end premium POM applications really pushing the molecules that we did have into our more premium products.

實際上，在歐盟，我們看到汽車業已恢復到疫情之前的水平，並加入了美國和亞洲的行列，它們在第四季度也達到了這一水平。我們看到工業持續成長，我們也看到醫療領域持續復甦，不僅僅是植入物，現在其他醫療領域——因為我們實施的計畫確實開始顯現效果。所以這是大約 6% 的成長，然後我們的價格也上漲了大約 6%。我想說，其中大約一半是我們去年為搶佔原材料市場而採取的主動定價措施，而另外大約一半是真正的產品組合。因此，更多的醫療、更多高端優質 POM 應用真正推動了我們擁有的分子進入更優質的產品。

And then we also had a bit of a help from -- we didn't have a POM turnaround because we took that in the fourth quarter of last year in IPH. So kind of another $30 million uplift there, not having the POM and then the POM turnaround in this quarter. And then we had another about $10 million uplift from affiliates -- really kind of across the board in affiliates. So I mean, those are the big factors that really accounted for the pretty dramatic uplift that we saw in EM.

然後我們也得到了一些幫助——我們沒有出現 POM 轉機，因為我們在去年第四季在 IPH 中就實現了這一目標。因此，那裡又增加了 3000 萬美元，沒有 POM，然後本季 POM 出現轉機。然後，我們從附屬公司獲得了另外約 1000 萬美元的收入——實際上是從附屬公司各個部門獲得的收入。所以我的意思是，這些是真正導致我們在新興市場看到相當顯著成長的重要因素。

And a quick follow-up. You mentioned disruptions in nylon and PBT supplies. How long do you think this could last?

並進行快速跟進。您提到了尼龍和 PBT 供應中斷。您認為這種情況會持續多久？

Yes. I think we do think they're going to continue through the second quarter and will start to resolve themselves as we move into the third quarter.

是的。我認為我們確實認為這些問題將持續到第二季​​度，並將在進入第三季度時開始解決。

Our next question is coming from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great. I guess I'll just start on the longer-term outlook for acetyls. You guys have announced some capacity additions. A couple of years ago, there was some rationalization in VAM in Europe. How do you see supply/demand, I guess, in the acetyls chain over the next couple of years? Do you expect further additions as well from the industry? Or would there be opportunities for consolidation?

偉大的。我想我將開始討論乙醯基的長期前景。你們已經宣布了一些產能增加。幾年前，歐洲對 VAM 進行了一些合理化調整。我想，您如何看待未來幾年乙醯基鏈的供需？您是否還期望該行業能夠進一步增加？或是是否存在整合的機會？

And I guess maybe if you could also address, you've noted some strength in end markets. Do you believe those are structural or just a little bit more near-term cyclical developments?

我想也許您也可以說一下，您已經注意到終端市場的一些優勢。您認為這些是結構性因素還是只是近期的周期性發展？

Yes. So longer term, I mean, I believe there have been structural improvement in terms of demand for acetyl chain products. Again, a lot of that goes into construction and infrastructure, but painting, coatings, packaging, I don't -- I think the move towards people having everything shipped to their home in boxes is not going to change anytime soon. So I think a lot of those sectors are seeing lasting increases in demand, even paints and coatings. I mean, well, that maybe can be a bit more cyclical.

是的。所以從長遠來看，我相信乙醯鏈產品的需求已經出現了結構性改善。再說一次，其中許多都用於建築和基礎設施，但油漆、塗料、包裝，我不認為——我認為人們把所有東西都裝在箱子裡運送到家裡的趨勢不會很快改變。因此我認為許多行業的需求都會持續成長，甚至油漆和塗料也是如此。我的意思是，這也許會更具週期性。

Again, I think what's happening with infrastructure bills and desire to reduce energy usage, you see a lot more going into insulation and exterior coatings and things to further weatherproof existing buildings as well as better materials the new buildings. So I think we are seeing a structural improvement in demand for acetyl products. I do expect we'll see some capacity come online, I mean, probably other than what we've announced, not a lot in the near term, again, because things take a little while to build. But if you go out 4 years, would I expect to see some additional capacity adds? Yes, assuming that continues.

再說一次，我認為隨著基礎設施費用和減少能源使用的願望的發生，你會看到更多的資金投入到隔熱和外部塗料以及進一步防風雨現有建築以及新建築的更好材料中。因此我認為我們看到乙醯產品需求的結構性改善。我確實希望我們能看到一些產能上線，我的意思是，除了我們已經宣布的產能之外，短期內不會有太多產能，因為一切都需要一段時間來建造。但如果再過 4 年，我是否會看到一些額外的產能增加？是的，假設這種情況持續下去。

That said, I also expect that, especially in China, new environmental regulations, other safety regulations may lead to some consolidation of capacity in China, in certain parts of the world. So I think -- look, I don't think this pricing level is going to continue forever, and I've talked about that already. But I do think we should continue to see fairly healthy margins going forward in acetyls based on those changes.

話雖如此，我還預計，尤其是在中國，新的環境法規和其他安全法規可能會導致中國以及世界某些地區的產能整合。所以我認為——看，我不認為這個定價水平會永遠持續下去，我已經談過這個了。但我確實認為，基於這些變化，我們應該繼續看到乙醯基的利潤率相當健康。

Okay. And just as a follow-up then, you provided kind of a $13 or $14 outlook for a couple of years from now, but you've also mentioned that you do have some plans for M&A this year. So maybe if you can just elaborate on what you're seeing on the M&A front and if that does kind of now factor in a little bit more concretely into your longer-term outlook and maybe push you up into the 15% level or so. How would you think about that?

好的。作為後續問題，您給出了幾年後 13 美元或 14 美元的預期，但您也提到今年確實有一些併購計劃。因此，如果您可以詳細說明您在併購方面看到的情況，並且如果這確實能更具體地影響到您的長期前景，並可能將您的預期推高至 15% 左右的水平。您對此有何看法？

Yes. I mean I think we laid it out at Investor Day. I mean what we laid out at the Investor Day did not assume any M&A, just assumed everything with share repurchases because that was the easiest way to model it in. But I mean, look, we're very active right now and looking at M&A as we have been. I think the M&A market is opening up. We see more parties interested in discussing M&A. We see more things being surfaced. So look, I'd say we're hopeful. We're not baking anything in yet in terms of M&A. But we're certainly hopeful that over the next 18 to 24 months, we will be able to do some form of meaningful M&A.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們在投資者日已經闡明了這一點。我的意思是，我們在投資者日上所闡述的內容並沒有假設任何併購，只是假設了股票回購的一切，因為這是最簡單的建模方式。但我的意思是，你看，我們現在非常活躍，並且像往常一樣專注於併購。我認為併購市場正在開放。我們看到越來越多的各方對討論併購感興趣。我們看到更多的事情浮出水面。所以，我想說我們充滿希望。在併購方面，我們尚未採取任何行動。但我們確實希望在未來 18 到 24 個月內，我們能夠進行某種形式的有意義的併購。

Our next question is coming from Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的馬修布萊爾。

Lori, congrats on the strong EM results in Q1. I was hoping you could just simply rank your top 3 end markets right now in EM in terms of just overall demand strength.

Lori，恭喜你在第一季取得了強勁的 EM 業績。我希望您能根據整體需求強度，對目前新興市場的前三大終端市場進行簡單排名。

Yes. So probably electronics is -- would be the #1 in terms of demand strength. I would say medical is probably #2 in terms of the -- it's not our largest market. But in terms of the strength of the growth that we're seeing for medical and pharma, it's #2. And then auto, despite what we expect in second quarter, is probably #3 in terms of continued growth in the future.

是的。因此，就需求強度而言，電子產品可能是第一大產業。我想說醫療可能是排名第二的——但它不是我們最大的市場。但就我們所看到的醫療和製藥行業的成長實力而言，它排名第二。然後，儘管我們對第二季的預期不盡相同，但就未來持續成長而言，汽車產業可能排名第三。

Great. And then we're seeing just huge spot VAM in acetic acid prices in China. I just want to make sure I understand your comments from before. Are you saying that that's -- that those high prices are a result of current outages or that, hey, we have high prices now and be on the lookout for future outages that were deferred from Q1?

偉大的。然後我們看到中國醋酸現貨 VAM 價格大幅上漲。我只是想確保我理解了您之前的評論。您是說，這些高價是由於當前停電造成的，還是說，嘿，我們現在價格很高，需要警惕從第一季推遲的未來停電？

Look, I think the high prices we're seeing now is -- started with the high demand we saw coming out of the fourth quarter and the tightness of the market that exists, aggravated by Winter Storm Uri. So normally, for example, Europe is an import market. Normally, everybody ships from the U.S., which is the lowest-cost location, to Europe to meet the demand there for acetic acid, but more importantly, VAM and emulsions.

聽著，我認為我們現在看到的高價是——始於第四季度的高需求和現有的市場緊張，而冬季風暴「烏裡」又加劇了這種緊張局面。因此，通常情況下，歐洲是一個進口市場。通常情況下，每個人都會從成本最低的美國運往歐洲，以滿足那裡對醋酸的需求，但更重要的是 VAM 和乳液的需求。

If you look at then Hurricane Uri with nothing coming out of the U.S., everything started coming out of China and other parts of Asia. So that really kept -- that's really what's been driving, I think, the higher pricing in China and Asia is demand there as well as exporting now into Europe. Going forward, because we know now all the plants are running again in the U.S., they're all coming back up to full capacity. Going forward, I think it will still be tight, but I think it could be tightened further, depending on the timing of now the China turnarounds that need to occur as well as any unplanned outages that could happen anywhere around the globe.

如果你觀察當時的颶風烏裡，它沒有對美國造成任何影響，而是開始對中國和亞洲其他地區造成影響。所以，我認為，這才是真正推動中國和亞洲價格上漲的原因，因為那裡有需求，現在也向歐洲出口。展望未來，因為我們知道現在美國所有的工廠都已恢復運轉，它們都將恢復滿載生產。展望未來，我認為它仍然會很緊張，但我認為它可能會進一步收緊，這取決於現在需要發生的中國轉變的時間以及全球任何地方可能發生的任何計劃外停電。

Our next question is coming from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

So in the EM, do you have a sense for how the rate of new projects and the duration of projects is affected in -- via inflationary or more volatile raw material environment?

那麼在新興市場，您是否了解新專案的速度和專案持續時間如何受到通貨膨脹或更不穩定的原材料環境的影響？

Yes. We haven't seen the raw material environment really impacting the rate of new projects. I mean, in fact, we've been -- we've talked about this a little bit at Investor Day, but our project model continues to be extremely productive, especially with the focus on the growth programs that we added 18 months or so ago.

是的。我們尚未發現原料環境真正影響新項目的速度。我的意思是，事實上，我們已經——我們在投資者日討論過這個問題，但我們的專案模式仍然非常高效，特別是我們專注於大約 18 個月前增加的成長計劃。

So if you look at just, say, Q1 '20 versus Q1 '21, we've actually increased the number of projects by 13%. So the number of projects won by 13%. And if you look at the value of those projects, that's more than a 20% growth year-on-year in terms of the value of the projects won.

因此，如果你只看 20 年第一季與 21 年第一季度，我們實際上將專案數量增加了 13%。因此得標項目數量增加了13%。如果你看一下這些項目的價值，你會發現中標項目的價值年增了 20% 以上。

So I would say the project model is very healthy. It is giving excellent results. We are getting a lot of value, and I mean, it is the thing that is supporting this greater than 10% CAGR growth we're looking at over the next few years.

所以我想說這個項目模式非常健康。它正在產生極好的結果。我們獲得了很多價值，我的意思是，它是支撐我們在未來幾年內預期的超過 10% 的複合年增長率的因素。

Our final question today is coming from Jaideep Pandya from On Field Investment Research.

今天的最後一個問題來自 On Field Investment Research 的 Jaideep Pandya。

Thanks a lot for the comments yesterday. It was very helpful. First question is really on POM and your ultra-high molecular weight going into battery separators. Can you just tell us, Lori, how much of POM is in ICE versus EV. And then what sort of growth do you expect in your ultra polyethylene as EV penetration sort of goes up and the wet end capacity in separators comes through? That's my first question.

非常感謝您昨天的評論。這非常有幫助。第一個問題實際上是關於 POM 和用於電池隔膜的超高分子量。洛里，你能告訴我們 ICE 和 EV 中 POM 的比例是多少嗎？那麼，隨著電動車滲透率的提高和分離器濕端容量的增加，您預計超級聚乙烯將會出現什麼樣的成長？這是我的第一個問題。

And the second question really is around acetic acid, VAM. What is really the current sort of payback for any current player or a new player that wants to enter this market, considering all the things that you've described of the market which point to fundamentally better demand/supply balance than it was maybe in the previous cycles?

第二個問題其實是關於乙酸 VAM 的。考慮到您所描述的所有市場情況，即市場供需平衡從根本上比以前的周期更好，對於任何現有參與者或想要進入這個市場的新參與者來說，當前的回報到底是什麼？

Yes. Let me see if I can get that. So in terms of POM, I think if you look at POM, the difference between POM in an ICE and in EV is not much difference at all. It's really other component that add -- I mean the difference between polymer content is very large between ICE and EV, but for POM specifically, pretty flat between the 2.

是的。讓我看看能否得到它。因此就 POM 而言，我認為如果您看一下 POM，ICE 和 EV 中的 POM 之間的差異並沒有太大。這實際上是添加了其他成分——我的意思是 ICE 和 EV 之間的聚合物含量差異非常大，但具體到 POM，兩者之間的差異相當平穩。

Now if you look at GUR, I mean, GUR, we've seen really significant growth over the last few years, really supporting the expansions that we're putting in place. So if you look at, say -- so lithium-ion battery separator growth from '19 to '20, that was up 25%. And then if you look at between '20 and '21, it's going to even be above 25% growth year-on-year. So huge demand for the ultra-high molecular weight material for lithium-ion battery separators. We are able to expand into that capacity at very low capital cost. So we're continuing to do so, and that's why we announced the Bishop DUR plant which will start up here next year and then a GUR plant to follow in Europe that will start up in 2024.

現在，如果你看看 GUR，我的意思是，GUR，我們在過去幾年中看到了非常顯著的成長，真正支持了我們正在實施的擴張。因此，如果你看一下，比如說 - 鋰離子電池隔膜從 19 年到 20 年的成長，成長了 25%。如果你看 20 年至 21 年，你會發現年比成長率甚至會超過 25%。因此對鋰離子電池隔膜用超高分子量材料的需求龐大。我們能夠以非常低的資本成本擴大到該產能。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，這就是我們宣布將於明年在這裡啟動 Bishop DUR 工廠，隨後將於 2024 年在歐洲啟動 GUR 工廠的原因。

And then in terms of acetic acid, VAM, I mean, gosh, that's a really hard question. I mean if you're expanding acetic acid and VAM, which is what we have been doing, I would say you get pretty -- you can get -- and you have good capital efficiency, you can get really good payout, let's say, kind of nominally 3-year kind of payout. I think if you're talking about greenfields or brand-new builds, again, everybody's economics are different, but I'm going to say you're probably talking closer to a 10-year payout, even at pretty good -- maybe 7 years if you're really, really capitally efficient.

然後就乙酸 VAM 而言，天哪，這是一個非常困難的問題。我的意思是，如果你擴大醋酸和 VAM 的生產，就像我們一直在做的那樣，我會說你會獲得相當不錯的收益——你可以獲得——而且你有良好的資本效率，你可以獲得非常好的回報，比如說，名義上是 3 年的回報。我認為，如果你談論的是綠地或全新的建築，那麼每個人的經濟狀況都是不同的，但我要說的是，你談論的可能是更接近 10 年的回報，即使是在相當好的情況下——如果你真的非常具有資本效率，也許是 7 年。

But again -- and it's the infrastructure it takes to build in acetic acid. You have to have hydrogen, you have to have methanol. You have to have CO. Unless you're in an industrial area, this gets really, really expensive. And just the transport. The stuff moves around in stainless tanks. I mean it's the transport -- it is an expensive proposition for a new player to get into acetic acid and VAM.

但同樣——這是生產乙酸所需的基礎設施。你必須有氫氣，你必須要有甲醇。你必須有 CO。除非你位於工業區，否則這會變得非常非常昂貴。還有交通。物質在不銹鋼罐內移動。我的意思是運輸——對於新進入醋酸和 VAM 行業的企業來說，這是一項昂貴的任務。

We reached end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Brandon for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節結束了。我想將發言權交還給布蘭登，請他發表進一步的評論或結束評論。

Thanks, Kevin. We'd like to thank everyone for listening in today. As always, we're available after the call for any further questions you might have. Kevin, please go ahead and close up the call at this time.

謝謝，凱文。我們感謝大家今天的收聽。與往常一樣，通話結束後我們仍會為您解答任何其他問題。凱文，請繼續，現在就結束通話。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，祝您有美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。