塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Celanese's Q4 call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brandon Ayache, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯第四季電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係資深總監 Brandon Ayache。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Doug. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Senior Director of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，道格。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2020年第四季財報電話會議。我叫 Brandon Ayache，是投資人關係資深總監。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk 和財務長 Scott Richardson。

Celanese Corporation distributed its fourth quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

塞拉尼斯公司昨天下午透過商業電訊發布了其第四季度收益報告，並在投資者關係網站上發布了有關該季度的準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements which can be found at the end of the press release as well as prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的演講還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看新聞稿末尾關於前瞻性聲明的警示性語言以及準備好的評論。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Because we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll now open it up for your questions. Doug, please go ahead and open up the line for questions.

由於我們昨天已經發表了準備好的評論，因此現在我們將開放供大家提問。道格，請繼續，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Great. And nice quarter and nice outlook there. Could you give us an update on the M&A environment for advanced materials deals?

偉大的。那裡的季度和前景都很好。您能否向我們介紹先進材料交易的併購環境的最新情況？

Sure. I think as we said, John, in the written comments, we are anxious to pursue M&A. We have a good pipeline of both bolt-ons and transformational deals that we've been looking at. I would say earlier in the year, I think people were just trying to sort out how to deal with COVID, how to deal with the current environment, how to manage their cash flows, and so we really didn't see a lot of interest from other parties in terms of discussing M&A.

當然。我認為，正如我們在書面評論中所說的那樣，約翰，我們渴望併購。我們擁有一系列一直在關注的附加交易和轉型交易。我想說，今年早些時候，我認為人們只是在試圖弄清楚如何應對 COVID、如何應對當前環境、如何管理他們的現金流，因此我們確實沒有看到其他方對討論併購表現出太大的興趣。

I would say as we move here through the fourth quarter and people start to see markets returning more to normal and feel more confident about their outlook for 2021, and therefore, a reasonable valuation basis, we are starting to see people having more interest in discussions around M&A. So I'd say the market is opening up. Obviously, it takes us a little while to get through these discussions, but definitely looking better as we go into 2021.

我想說，隨著我們進入第四季度，人們開始看到市場逐漸恢復正常，對 2021 年的前景更有信心，因此，在合理的估值基礎上，我們開始看到人們對併購討論更感興趣。所以我想說市場正在開放。顯然，我們需要一些時間來完成這些討論，但隨著進入 2021 年，情況肯定會變得更好。

And then can cig tow to prices increase? We've got kind of an unusually strong environment. I mean U.S. cigarette smoking, I think, didn't decline for the first year in a long time and I'm guessing it's up in China. And you had a potential transaction that you worked on a while ago in cig tow. I didn't know where there are any opportunities here to revisit that.

那麼香菸價格還能漲嗎？我們擁有一種異常強大的環境。我的意思是，我認為，美國的吸煙量在很長一段時間內第一年沒有下降，我猜中國的吸煙量是上升的。不久前，您在香菸拖運方面有一項潛在的交易。我不知道這裡還有機會重新審視這一點。

Yes. Look, I think on tow, we did see some drop in prices from '19 to '20. Those were based on the negotiations that happened in '19 going into '20. As we've been negotiating in '20 for '21, I'd say the prices are stable, and in some cases, a little bit up. So I do think there's -- as you said, we saw less decline in smoking last year than expected in some areas, even an increase in smoking. I guess people had more time at home. So we really do see the prices stabilizing now for tow and maybe even a little bit of upward movement. So that's good. So if you look at our outlook for tow, we're basically saying we think for the next many years, it's going to be pretty much flat at this kind of [2 50] to [2 60] range.

是的。看起來，我認為從 2019 年到 2020 年，我們確實看到價格有所下降。這些都是基於 19 年至 20 年期間的談判。正如我們在 2020 年為 21 年進行的談判一樣，我認為價格是穩定的，在某些情況下甚至略有上漲。所以我確實認為——正如你所說，去年我們發現某些地區的吸煙率下降幅度低於預期，甚至有所增加。我想人們在家裡有更多的時間。因此，我們確實看到拖車價格現在趨於穩定，甚至可能略有上漲。這很好。因此，如果你看一下我們對拖車的展望，我們基本上是說，我們認為在未來很多年裡，它將基本上保持在 [2.50] 到 [2.60] 的範圍內。

In terms of transaction, look, we didn't to do the transaction last time because of competition concerns in the EU. There's nothing that's changed in the landscape that makes that different. So I think it's unlikely that we would be able to do a similar type transaction even today.

就交易而言，你看，上次我們沒有進行交易，是因為歐盟的競爭問題。景觀上沒有任何變化，因此情況有所不同。所以我認為即使在今天我們也不太可能進行類似的交易。

Our next question comes from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

Lori, I was intrigued by your comments about changing the production base in acetic relative to the initial plans. And I think you referenced maybe some advantages to raw material contracts. Can you talk a little bit more about what that allows you to do and why it's now feasible to keep that production at stated rates instead of paring it back a bit?

洛里，我對你關於改變醋酸生產基地（相對於最初的計劃）的評論很感興趣。我認為您可能提到了原材料合約的一些優勢。您能否進一步談談這能讓您做什麼，以及為什麼現在可以將產量保持在規定的水平而不是稍微削減一點？

Yes. Sure. We had originally announced the Clear Lake expansion from 1.3 million tons to 2 million tons. When we did that, we assumed we would either shut down or cut back capacity in Asia. So it was kind of a net capacity neutral. And the project was based on -- it's justified based on productivity. When we made the decision to delay the project for 18 months given the low oil environment, the uncertainties around COVID, et cetera, we took that as an opportunity to really go back and reexamine the basis for the project. And in doing so, we found another $50 million of savings in capital we could make in the project.

是的。當然。我們最初宣布將清湖的產能從 130 萬噸擴大到 200 萬噸。當我們這樣做時，我們假設我們要么關閉要么削減亞洲的產能。因此，這是一種淨容量中性。該項目是基於生產力而建立的。當我們考慮到低油價環境、新冠疫情的不確定性等因素而決定將專案推遲 18 個月時，我們藉此機會真正回顧並重新審視該專案的基礎。透過這樣做，我們發現我們可以在該專案上再節省 5000 萬美元的資本。

We also had a chance to go work with some of our suppliers in Asia. And we're able to negotiate during that low raw material environment and very favorable contracts going forward, both for Singapore and for Nanjing, which makes both of those locations more attractive from a competitiveness standpoint. And we also found other sources of productivity, specifically around catalyst usage in Clear Lake and some other areas, that when we really looked at it in total, we said, you know what? Given also the strong recovery we're seeing in acetic acid, our view to the future that acetic acid will continue to grow GDP, plus maybe a little bit more.

我們還有機會與亞洲的一些供應商合作。我們能夠在原材料價格低廉的環境下進行談判，並簽訂對新加坡和南京都非常有利的合同，從競爭力的角度來看，這使得這兩個地點都更具吸引力。我們還發現了其他生產力來源，特別是在 Clear Lake 和其他一些地區的催化劑使用方面，當我們真正全面審視它時，我們說，你知道嗎？鑑於我們看到乙酸的強勁復甦，我們認為未來乙酸將繼續推動 GDP 成長，甚至可能略有增加。

We said, it really makes more sense for us to go ahead and do the expansion at Clear Lake, which, by the way, we're actually going to be able to expand Clear Lake to be about 2.6 million tons capable. So we will do that larger expansion at Clear Lake, keep all the facilities available to us and running in Asia, which, again, we won't run them full necessarily. We'll run them to meet what we need in the market and meet the demand. But gives us the option in the future if we do see more robust growth to run them at higher rates, and we still get the same level of productivity and credit on a smaller capital base in Clear Lake.

我們說，繼續擴建 Clear Lake 確實更有意義，順便說一句，我們實際上可以將 Clear Lake 的運力擴大到約 260 萬噸。因此，我們將在 Clear Lake 進行更大規模的擴建，保留我們在亞洲的所有可用設施並繼續運行，但我們不一定會全力運行這些設施。我們將運行它們來滿足市場需求並滿足需求。但如果我們看到未來更強勁的成長，我們可以選擇以更高的速度運行它們，而且我們仍然可以在 Clear Lake 較小的資本基礎上獲得相同水平的生產力和信貸。

So actually, I think the delay turned out to be a good thing. We actually had a chance to go back and reexamine some elements of the projects and have what I think is a stronger, more robust economically project now as well as additional capacity we can use for the future.

所以實際上，我認為延遲是一件好事。我們實際上有機會回過頭來重新審視專案的某些要素，並且我認為現在的專案在經濟上更加強大、更加穩健，並且具備可供未來使用的額外產能。

Got it. And on the KEPCO JV turning into a manufacturing JV, is that an earnings enhancement for you? Or is it just greater flexibility that can then lead to some earnings enhancement? How should we think about that from the bottom line numbers standpoint?

知道了。那麼，當 KEPCO JV 轉型為製造合資企業時，這是否會提高您的獲利能力？或者僅僅是更大的靈活性就能帶來一些收益的增加？從底線數字的角度來看，我們應該如何考慮這個問題？

Yes. I'll also let Scott comment. But I mean, really, it's based on what we've said in the past, which is we want the flexibility to move the molecules ourselves into high-end markets using our business model. So in the past, KEPCO marketed all of the molecules. Now we will have our 50% of the molecules that we can market, and we can move into what we think will be hopefully more attractive end market. So that flexibility, we believe, will give us higher returns. And then there, I think there's also some accounting changes that happened with that, that Scott may want to comment on.

是的。我還會讓斯科特發表評論。但我的意思是，這實際上是基於我們過去所說的，即我們希望能夠靈活地利用我們的商業模式將分子推向高端市場。因此，過去，韓國電力公司銷售所有分子。現在，我們將擁有 50% 可以銷售的分子，並且我們可以進入我們認為更具吸引力的終端市場。因此，我們相信這種靈活性將為我們帶來更高的回報。然後，我認為也發生了一些會計變化，斯科特可能想對此發表評論。

Yes. And I think the other thing to add, Bob, is we will get synergies here. I mean by now having polymer capacity in Asia and having 50% of that output, we're going to be able to realign our supply chain. So think about us getting synergies from this deal and kind of being like a bolt-on M&A deal. So adding call it, $20-ish million of earnings over a 3-year period of time, and it didn't cost anything to get it. So we're excited about that.

是的。鮑勃，我認為另外要補充的是，我們將在這裡獲得協同效應。我的意思是，現在我們在亞洲擁有聚合物產能，並且佔產量的 50%，我們將能夠重新調整我們的供應鏈。所以想想我們從這筆交易中獲得的協同效應，有點像是附加的併購交易。因此，在 3 年的時間裡，我們可以將收益增加到 2000 萬美元左右，而且我們無需花費任何成本就能獲得它。所以我們對此感到很興奮。

You will see the equity earnings line which comes in on an after-tax basis that will -- the portion that kind of flips to the marketing return that we get will move above the line, and we will then add revenue, obviously, for what we're selling there onto the P&L. Equity earnings will come down over time. And as we stated with the announcement, we expect that to close sometime later this year.

您將看到稅後權益收益線 - 轉換為我們獲得的行銷回報的部分將移至該線之上，然後我們顯然會將在那裡銷售的產品的收入添加到損益表中。股權收益將會隨著時間的推移而下降。正如我們在公告中所述，我們預計該交易將在今年稍後完成。

Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

If I could just ask on the shape of the year, it sounds like you're expecting acetic to normalize in 2Q and 3Q and then presumably have more of a normalized seasonal 4Q. And I just -- one on that piece. What -- why is it going to come back into 2Q? I get that it's already sort of settling down a little bit. But is there a case for it to stay sort of above that $170 million to $200 million range that you're expecting for the second and third quarter?

如果我可以問今年的情況，聽起來您預計乙酸將在第二季和第三季恢復正常，然後大概會在第四季出現更正常的季節性變化。我只是——談論那件事而已。什麼——為什麼它會在第二季度再次出現？我明白事情已經有點平息了。但是，有沒有理由認為第二季和第三季的營收將保持在您預期的 1.7 億至 2 億美元水準以上呢？

And then on Engineered Materials, if you could just help us understand how you think the shape of that is going to play out. I know one of the big drivers is going to be how fast the health care part comes back. But how are you thinking of that? And then again, on the fourth quarter, how do we lap an unusual 4Q '20, and hopefully, a more normalized 2021 environment?

然後關於工程材料，如果您能幫助我們了解您認為它的形式將如何發揮作用。我知道其中一個重要驅動因素是醫療保健部門復甦的速度。但您對此有何看法？那麼，在第四季度，我們如何度過不尋常的 2020 年第四季度，並希望度過更正常化的 2021 年環境？

Yes. Thanks, Vincent. So starting with acetyls, yes, we do expect a really robust first quarter as we guided to. And we do expect some normalization as we move into second quarter and what could really change that. I mean if you look at what's driving kind of the 4Q and the, let's call it, really December and the 1Q pricing, we've had more robust demand, all in China, I would say, for acetic acid and for VAM. So it really has been more demand-led.

是的。謝謝，文森特。因此，從乙醯基開始，是的，我們確實預計第一季將出現非常強勁的表現，正如我們所預期的那樣。我們確實預計，隨著進入第二季度，情況會有所正常化，而什麼才能真正改變這種狀況？我的意思是，如果你看一下第四季度以及我們稱之為 12 月和第一季定價的因素，你會發現，中國對醋酸和 VAM 的需求更加強勁。因此它實際上更多地是由需求主導的。

There have been a number of shorter outages in China for acetic acid and VAM. If you actually look at the data, it's not been significantly different than most fourth quarters. So I would say the tightness we've seen in December and going into January and February has really been demand-driven. Now some of those outages that we've had, although there was a few more in January which has given us some volatility in acetic acid, those plants are coming back online. And that's we say, kind of once plants are back, as people now have adjusted to this new level of demand, I mean, quite frankly, we saw what we thought was a little bit of panic buying over these 3 months where people, because demand was coming up and because there was a few outages, responded by doing a little bit of restocking because it made them nervous. I think that's going to calm down as we go forward and people see security of supply and a more stable demand outlook.

中國已發生多起醋酸和VAM短暫停產事件。如果你實際看一下數據，你會發現它與大多數第四季並沒有太大不同。因此我想說，我們在 12 月以及 1 月和 2 月看到的緊張局面實際上是需求驅動的。現在，我們遇到的一些停產，雖然一月又發生了幾次，導致乙酸供應出現一些波動，但這些工廠正在恢復生產。這就是我們所說的，一旦工廠恢復生產，人們現在已經適應了這種新的需求水平，坦率地說，我們看到了這三個月來出現的一些恐慌性購買，因為需求上升，而且出現了一些停產，人們通過少量補貨來應對，因為這讓他們感到緊張。我認為，隨著我們不斷前進，人們看到供應的安全性和更穩定的需求前景，這種情況將會平靜下來。

Now clearly, look, if there's another outage, especially if there were an outage in the Western Hemisphere, could we see these conditions, these kind of $500 to $700 per ton conditions continue on into the second quarter? I mean we could. It's just we don't have any visibility of that right now, and so we would say we expect it to kind of normalize to normal ranges. I would expect we should have -- we expect $170 million to $200 million every quarter through the rest of the year. That's what we consider a pretty normalized level of earnings for acetyls and fully expect to be in that range.

現在很明顯，如果再次發生停電，特別是西半球發生停電，我們是否會看到這些情況，每噸 500 至 700 美元的情況持續到第二季​​度？我的意思是我們可以。只是我們現在還無法預見這一點，所以我們預計它會恢復到正常範圍。我預計我們應該有——我們預計今年剩餘時間每季的營收將達到 1.7 億至 2 億美元。我們認為這是乙醯基的相當正常的收益水平，並且完全預期會在這個範圍內。

For Engineered Materials, we guided to $120 million on some modest price and volume recovery. Obviously, we're seeing headwinds from raws, but we've been making price movements that we think will largely offset that movement we've seen in raws. I would expect a little bit of improvement on that in second and third quarter, typical of what we see those being stronger demand months. We should also expect a little bit more recovery in our affiliate earnings. So expect to see that roll through in second and third quarter. And then fourth quarter typically looks more like first quarter. So I would think of it that way for the year.

對於工程材料，我們預計其價格和銷售將適度回升，銷售額將達到 1.2 億美元。顯然，我們看到了來自原料的阻力，但我們一直在進行價格變動，我們認為這將在很大程度上抵消我們在原料方面看到的價格變動。我預計第二季和第三季的情況會有所改善，這是我們所看到的典型的需求較強的月份。我們也應該預期我們的聯營公司收益會略有回升。因此，預計這一趨勢將在第二季和第三季延續。第四季通常看起來更像第一季。所以我會這樣考慮這一年的事。

Okay. And maybe just a follow-up on the M&A. In the prepared remarks, I know you talked about sort of having a look around at half time in the middle of the year and seeing where the M&A environment is. Is that a function of just sort of wanting to make a decision on how to use your cash flow for the year and not necessarily build any if you're not going to use it? Or do you think there's really something about the middle of the year in terms of specific transactions or anything in particular?

好的。或許只是併購的後續行動。在準備好的發言中，我知道您談到了在年中休息時環顧四周並了解併購環境的情況。這是否只是想要決定如何使用年度現金流，而如果您不打算使用它，就不一定要建立任何現金流？或者您認為就具體交易或其他特定事項而言，年中確實存在一些事情？

Yes. I would say that the mid-year is really just about making sure we don't sit on cash for too long if we don't have any M&A clearly in sight. Look, we can always go borrow later to do the M&A. We're at a very low leverage. So that's not a problem. And it also represents -- look, we can effectively buy back shares, about 400 to 500, in the first half. We probably can't really do a lot more than that. So it's also a time where you go, okay, now we need to reevaluate if we need to go above that level, that we had stated in the guidance.

是的。我想說的是，如果我們沒有任何明確的併購計劃，那麼年中的目的實際上只是為了確保我們不會長時間持有現金。你看，我們以後總是可以藉錢來進行併購。我們的槓桿率非常低。所以這不是問題。這也意味著——你看，我們可以在上半年有效回購大約 400 到 500 股。我們可能真的不能做更多了。所以現在也是你需要重新評估是否需要超越我們在指導中提到的程度的時候了。

Our next question comes from the line of Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲‧菲舍爾 (Duffy Fischer)。

First one is maybe 2-part around JV. So on KEPCO, is the idea there that, that will basically sell to the partners at cost or will KEPCO actually try to make a profit? And then could you also size the liquid crystal plant, roughly kind of what the capital spend would be there? And then how accretive should that be to earnings when it starts to run?

第一個可能是圍繞 JV 的兩個部分。那麼，對於韓國電力公司來說，他們的想法是，基本上以成本價出售給合作夥伴，還是韓國電力公司實際上會嘗試獲利？然後，您能否估算一下液晶工廠的規模，大概知道那裡的資本支出是多少？那麼，當它開始運作時，對收益的增值程度應該有多大呢？

Yes. Let me take the KEP question, Duffy. So we will have some small trading profit there for KEP. It will be a cost-plus basis going forward. And once that's finalized at closing, we'll make sure everyone is aware of what that is.

是的。達菲，讓我來回答 KEP 問題。因此我們將為 KEP 獲得一些小額交易利潤。未來將採用成本加成法。一旦最終確定，我們將確保每個人都知道那是什麼。

Great. And on the LCP, we're looking at doing this expansion in -- or this build in China in phases. So if you look at the size of it, the first phase is a -- will be pretty much the same as our current capacity, so double our current capacity on LCP. The cost of that is going to be less than $100 million. Start-up won't be until early 2024, so not sure financially what that looks like by then. But I would say we would expect it to be accretive fairly quickly as we already have demand in sight for that time at start-up.

偉大的。在 LCP 方面，我們正在考慮在中國分階段進行擴張或建造。因此，如果你看一下它的規模，你會發現第一階段的規模將與我們目前的產能幾乎相同，因此是我們目前 LCP 產能的兩倍。其成本將低於 1 億美元。該專案要到 2024 年初才會啟動，因此不確定屆時財務狀況會如何。但我想說，我們預計它會很快成長，因為我們在啟動時就已經看到了需求。

Great. And then could you give us a little preview on what you want to highlight at your Investor Day coming up?

偉大的。然後您能否向我們簡要介紹一下您在即將到來的投資者日上想要強調的內容？

Sure. I think for Investor Day, we're really looking at, we want to reconfirm our plans to achieve double-digit EPS year-on-year growth over the next 3 years. That's going to be based on a number of things. First, continuing to outline a more robust program of organic growth. And you've seen some of that already with our announcements around the GUR expansion in the U.S., the LCP build, putting our acetic acid project back on the table and actually at a slightly bigger expansion than we had previously.

當然。我認為，在投資者日，我們真正關注的是，我們希望再次確認我們在未來 3 年內實現兩位數每股收益同比增長的計劃。這將基於多種因素。首先，繼續制定更強勁的有機成長計劃。您已經看到了一些跡象，我們宣佈在美國進行 GUR 擴建，建造 LCP，將我們的醋酸項目重新提上日程，而且實際上擴建規模比以前略大。

We're going to talk a lot about innovation in end markets and especially the programs that we started in electric vehicles and 5G and medical pharma. We're already seeing good results from those, really good growth and expect that to continue. So we'll be talking more about those and giving some examples. And then we'll be talking quite a lot about ESG, not just our commitments to ESG, but also a lot around sustainable products and the advancements we're making in sustainable products in the areas like BlueRidge, like economies like bio POM. So that -- those will be the main focus on Investor Day, as well as we will talk more about cash deployment and our outlook for cash deployment.

我們將深入討論終端市場的創新，特別是我們在電動車、5G 和醫藥製藥領域啟動的專案。我們已經看到了良好的結果，確實良好的成長，並希望這種情況能持續下去。因此我們將進一步討論這些問題並給出一些例子。然後，我們將會大量談論 ESG，不僅是我們對 ESG 的承諾，還會談論永續產品以及我們在 BlueRidge 等領域的永續產品、生物 POM 等經濟體方面取得的進步。因此，這些將成為投資者日的主要關注點，同時我們也將更多地討論現金部署以及我們對現金部署的展望。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

A nice finish to the year there. Can you maybe talk a little bit about some of the project momentum? You used to talk about projects a lot over the last couple of years for EM. Any particular areas you're seeing a lot of sort of requests or growth there? And how does that sort of look when you look at the outlook for EM in '21?

為這一年畫上了一個圓滿的句點。您能否稍微談談該專案的一些進度？在過去幾年裡，您經常談論 EM 專案。您在哪些特定領域看到大量請求或成長？那麼，當您展望 21 年新興市場的前景時，情況又會如何呢？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Mike. Yes, tell you about the projects a little bit. And I think this year is a good example of why we're starting to transition a little bit away from a number of projects to more towards value of projects.

是的。謝謝你的提問，麥克。是的，稍微向您介紹一下這些項目。我認為今年就是一個很好的例子，說明為什麼我們開始從關注專案數量轉向關注專案價值。

So if you look at 2020, we actually, with all the challenges of COVID and everything else, ended up ending the year with about 90% of the number of project wins as we had in 2019. But if you look at the value of the wins we had in 2020, they were actually right at the same level as the value of the wins we had in 2019. And that's really what we're focusing on, on projects, which is not just, are we generating a high number, but are we generating projects that have value and have extended value?

因此，如果你回顧 2020 年，你會發現儘管我們面臨新冠疫情和其他所有挑戰，但到年底，我們中標的項目數量仍達到 2019 年的 90% 左右。但如果你看看我們在 2020 年取得的勝利的價值，它們實際上與我們在 2019 年取得的勝利的價值處於同一水平。這確實是我們在專案上關注的重點，這不僅是我們是否創造了大量項目，而且我們是否創造了有價值和延伸價值的項目？

So we've really been focusing on project wins in some of those program areas I mentioned earlier. So things like future mobility, around electric vehicles and autonomous and connectivities, so 5G, and those sorts of things and mobile. If you look at it, for example, the growth in the number of projects we've had in terms of value is more than 65% for autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles. And for connectivity, it's over 60%. So we're really shifting our focus to those, I would say, newer focuses, things that we think are going to have long life. And we're having a very high success rate in those areas.

因此，我們一直真正關注我之前提到的某些專案領域的專案勝利。因此，諸如未來移動性、電動車、自動駕駛和連接性、5G 以及諸如此類的東西和移動性。例如，如果你看一下，你會發現我們自動駕駛汽車和電動車專案的數量在價值上增加了 65% 以上。就連接性而言，這一比例超過 60%。因此，我們確實將重點轉移到那些較新的焦點上，也就是我們認為將會長期存在的事物上。我們在這些領域的成功率非常高。

So if we look towards next year, clearly, we would expect that value to continue to grow. It needs to grow to continue to meet our expectations for EBIT growth year-on-year. So we continue to -- but again, we're focusing on value of project wins, not just number of project wins.

因此，如果我們展望明年，顯然我們預計該價值將繼續增長。它需要成長才能繼續滿足我們對息稅前利潤年增率的預期。因此，我們會繼續下去——但我們再次強調，我們關注的是專案獲勝的價值，而不僅僅是專案獲勝的數量。

Got it. And then in terms of acquisitions, are there any -- are you sort of -- maybe give us a framework. Are you looking for new polymers to add to the portfolio, new technologies? Maybe focusing on end markets? And then is there a difference in what you're looking for versus a bolt-on and transformational deal?

知道了。那麼就收購而言，有沒有什麼——你能給我們一個框架嗎？您是否正在尋找新的聚合物來添加到產品組合中，或者新技術？也許專注於終端市場？那麼，您所尋求的與附加交易和轉型交易之間有什麼區別嗎？

Yes. I wouldn't say our philosophy has changed around M&A. Our philosophy is the same. We are looking at projects that meet our return thresholds and also meet our strategic criteria, so those things that you just laid out. So we're looking at geography. We're looking at, yes, we'd love to always add new polymers. We're looking at additional capabilities. So sometimes, like some of the ones we did with Next and Omni, adding recycle capability. We're always looking to add new capability there. So I would say that's not changed.

是的。我不會說我們的併購理念已經改變。我們的理念是一樣的。我們正在尋找符合我們的回報門檻和策略標準的項目，也就是您剛才列出的那些東西。所以我們正在研究地理。我們正在考慮，是的，我們很樂意不斷添加新的聚合物。我們正在尋找其他功能。所以有時，就像我們對 Next 和 Omni 所做的那樣，增加了回收功能。我們一直在尋求在那裡增加新的功能。所以我想說這並沒有改變。

I would say, given the time we had this year in 2020, we've used that to cast maybe a little broader net than we've had before and looked at some other -- not just polymers, but other chemistries that use a similar business model to what we use in EM and that we think we could add value to. So I'd say we're looking broadly to make sure we're not missing any opportunities to really grow value for the shareholders.

我想說，考慮到我們今年在 2020 年的時間，我們利用這段時間撒下了比以前更廣泛的網，並研究了一些其他的東西——不僅僅是聚合物，還有其他化學物質，它們使用與我們在 EM 中使用的類似的商業模式，我們認為我們可以為它們增加價值。所以我想說，我們正在廣泛尋找機會，以確保我們不會錯過任何真正為股東增加價值的機會。

Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Question around EM segment margins. Obviously, they compressed sequentially to sub-20% levels, and obviously, under normalized macro conditions. Historically, they were north of 30%. Now I'm obviously cognizant of the fact that there was some sort of turnaround expenses baked into that margin number. But I just wanted to sort of get your view on when you expect to see a reversal or a return to those 30%-plus EBITDA margin levels.

關於 EM 部分利潤率的問題。顯然，它們連續壓縮至 20% 以下的水平，而且顯然是在正常化的宏觀條件下。從歷史上看，這一比例一直高於 30%。現在我顯然意識到這個利潤數字中包含了某種週轉費用。但我只是想了解一下您認為何時會出現逆轉或恢復到 30% 以上的 EBITDA 利潤率水平。

Yes. Well, Hassan, thanks for the question. You're exactly right. I mean this year, our margins were compressed in EM for two reasons, I would say. One is a pretty significant amount of turnaround expense we had this year with both the Bishop and the IPH POM turnaround. So those were 2 very large turnarounds which we also had quite a bit of inventory draw to cover those. So those together had a pretty significant impact. The other thing this year is with lower volumes, and we ran plants in second and third quarter certainly at -- some shut down for a period of time, some run at lower rates. This is a high fixed cost business. And so that fixed cost gets spread across the rest of the volumes, and that certainly had an impact on our margins.

是的。好吧，哈桑，謝謝你的提問。你說得完全正確。我的意思是，今年我們在新興市場的利潤率受到壓縮，原因有二。一是今年我們在 Bishop 和 IPH POM 的周轉上花費了相當多的周轉費用。因此，這是兩個非常大的周轉，我們也有大量的庫存來彌補這些損失。所以這些因素綜合起來產生了相當大的影響。今年的另一個問題是產量下降，我們在第二季和第三季營運的工廠肯定有些關閉了一段時間，有些運作率較低。這是一項高固定成本的業務。因此，固定成本會分攤到其餘業務量上，這肯定會對我們的利潤產生影響。

I would say, as we go into 2021, I would certainly expect to be back at that in -- excuse me, because I always think in EBIT, but at that kind of 20% to 25% range of EBIT margins as we go into 2021, and we see back to normal rates of volume and kind of a normal level of turnaround activity.

我想說，當我們進入 2021 年時，我當然希望回到那個水平——對不起，因為我總是考慮息稅前利潤，但當我們進入 2021 年時，息稅前利潤率將在 20% 到 25% 的範圍內，我們會看到交易量恢復到正常的水平，週轉活動也恢復到正常的水平。

Yes. And Hassan, just one thing to add to that. With the sale of share of Polyplastics, that will come out of that. So that is one of the things that did inflate that number up. And that has been kind of running on average around $40 million or so a year. So that will be out permanently going forward. And that's why, on an EBIT basis, kind of being in that 20% to 25% is where we think we'll be in 2021.

是的。哈桑，我只想補充一點。隨著寶理塑膠股份的出售，這個目標將會實現。所以這是導致該數字膨脹的因素之一。每年的平均支出約為 4,000 萬美元左右。因此，從現在起，這將永遠消失。這就是為什麼，以息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 為基礎，我們認為 2021 年的息稅前利潤將達到 20% 至 25%。

Very helpful. And as a follow-up, on the acetyl chain side, obviously, very strong margins in Q4. And Lori, you touched on some of the drivers. Obviously, pricing strength was there, and you talked about some outages and sort of demand rebounding again and the like.

非常有幫助。作為後續行動，在乙醯鏈方面，第四季的利潤率顯然非常高。洛里，你提到了一些驅動因素。顯然，定價實力是存在的，而且您談到了一些停電和需求再次反彈等情況。

I just wanted to sort of dig deeper into the sustainability of those sort of margin levels. It seems that there are a bunch of moving parts. Obviously, coal prices have gone up quite a bit in China. Obviously, methanol has gone up. I would expect that would moderate or maybe even come down on a go-forward basis. Then obviously, there's the whole sort of notion of higher shipping costs and maybe those sort of coming into higher pricing levels and the like. So could you just help me sort of think through the sustainability of the sort of Q4 margin levels within acetyl chain?

我只是想更深入地探討這些利潤水準的可持續性。看起來有一堆活動部件。顯然，中國的煤炭價格已經上漲不少了。顯然甲醇漲了。我預計這種情況會逐漸緩和，甚至可能下降。那麼顯然，存在運輸成本增加的問題，也許會導致定價水準提高等等。那麼，您能否幫助我思考一下乙醯鏈內第四季度利潤水準的可持續性？

Sure. Look, we think sustainable margins in acetyls of $170 million to $200 million. We consider those kind of a foundational level of earnings, and therefore, sustainable over a pretty wide variety of conditions. And I think it's really based on the flexibility we have in the chain and the optionality we have in the chain. I mean earlier in the year, although we weren't at those levels, we saw still good returns from acetyls because we were able, even with acetic demand being down, VAM being stronger, emulsions being stronger, being able to flex our chain to produce more of those molecules. Now with acetic acid stronger, we can flex back and put more back into acetic acid.

當然。我們認為乙醯基的可持續利潤率為 1.7 億美元至 2 億美元。我們認為這是一種基礎收入水平，因此在各種各樣的條件下都是可持續的。我認為這實際上是基於我們在鏈中的靈活性和我們在鏈中的可選性。我的意思是，在今年早些時候，儘管我們還沒有達到那些水平，但我們仍然看到乙醯基的良好回報，因為即使乙酸需求下降，VAM 更強，乳液更強，我們仍然能夠彎曲我們的鏈條來生產更多的這些分子。現在乙酸變得更強了，我們可以彎曲並將更多的乙酸放回原處。

So that flexibility that we have and the geographic flexibility -- I mean as you say, Nanjing, with coal prices up, but natural gas prices aren't really up in the Gulf Coast, and we still have all that Clear Lake capacity. So that -- we just shift more to Clear Lake and take advantage of low U.S. Gulf Coast natural gas prices. Oil has been fairly low, so that's made our Singapore capacity pretty attractive.

因此，我們所擁有的靈活性和地理靈活性——我的意思是，正如你所說，南京的煤炭價格上漲，但墨西哥灣沿岸的天然氣價格並沒有真正上漲，而我們仍然擁有所有的 Clear Lake 產能。因此，我們只需將更多天然氣轉移到清水湖，並利用美國墨西哥灣沿岸的低天然氣價格。油價一直很低，因此我們的新加坡產能相當有吸引力。

So having that geographical as well as the flexibility within the chain, we think gives us a lot of optionality across a wide range of economic conditions. And that's why we feel that $170 million to $200 is very sustainable. Now the higher level that we're seeing, kind of that $225-plus million level that we're predicting for Q1, that's a little higher -- harder level to sustain. That's really based on some very high acetic acid pricing, specifically in China. But certainly, that $170 million to $200 million, we think is sustainable.

因此，我們認為，憑藉地理和鏈條內部的靈活性，我們可以在各種經濟條件下擁有很大的選擇空間。這就是為什麼我們認為 1.7 億美元到 2 億美元是非常永續的。現在我們看到的更高水平，也就是我們預測的第一季的 2.25 億美元以上的水平，這個水平有點高——更難維持。這實際上是基於非常高的醋酸價格，特別是在中國。但可以肯定的是，我們認為這 1.7 億至 2 億美元是可持續的。

Yes. On a percentage basis, the sustainability there, Hassan, I think we've shown over the last several years that this business is going to do greater than 20% EBIT type margins, and that puts EBITDA in kind of the mid-20 range, 25-ish percent. And we expect that to continue as we go forward and be pretty strong in those areas in 2021 and beyond.

是的。從百分比來看，哈桑，我認為，就永續性而言，過去幾年我們已經表明，這項業務的息稅前利潤率將超過 20%，而息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率將達到 20% 左右，即 25% 左右。我們預計，隨著我們繼續前進，這種勢頭將持續下去，並在 2021 年及以後在這些領域保持強勁勢頭。

Our next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

So Lori, obviously, there was a lot of complexity throughout 2020 from a macro standpoint just given the disruptions, et cetera. As you look back at 4Q and what you're seeing at current, is it just sort of transitory disruptions and commodity tightness that is driving the improvement in AC and EM segments? Or do you see more confidence from customers as it relates to some level of global reflation sustainability? And if you could just sort of touch on that dynamic across the various geographic regions, that would be helpful.

因此，Lori，顯然，從宏觀角度來看，2020 年全年都存在著許多複雜性，包括中斷等等。回顧第四季以及目前的情況，是否只是暫時的中斷和商品緊張推動了 AC 和 EM 領域的改善？或者您看到客戶對某種程度的全球通貨再膨脹可持續性更有信心？如果您能稍微談談不同地理區域的動態，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. I would say we definitely see confidence from customers and people being more certain going forward. I would look at the current resurgence of COVID is -- clearly has been as bad the last few months as it was in the early days of COVID. But yes, we have not seen our customers shutting down. We haven't been seeing them cutting back. We continue to see robust consumer behavior around the globe. And so I think that's giving everyone confidence. We just aren't seeing the impacts now from COVID. I mean if you look, we're really getting back to 2019 levels of demand. And we're not hearing anything different from customers.

是的。我想說，我們確實看到了客戶的信心，人們對未來也更有信心。我認為，目前 COVID 的復甦情況——顯然，過去幾個月的情況與 COVID 初期一樣糟糕。但是是的，我們並沒有看到我們的客戶關閉。我們還沒有看到他們削減開支。我們持續看到全球消費者行為強勁。所以我認為這給了每個人信心。我們現在還沒有看到 COVID 的影響。我的意思是，如果你看一下，我們的需求確實回到了 2019 年的水平。我們沒有聽到顧客有什麼不同的看法。

So I think truly, demand is driving the increase that we're seeing in the acetyl chain. I think demand is driving the increases we're seeing in EM. Now we have had some bumpiness and volatility in December and into the first few months of this year in acetyl. I think that's been based on people, because they are confident about the future, being worried about these, what turned out to be fairly minor supply disruptions and causing some volatility in the market. But I think, overall, and the reason we are optimistic about 2021 and growth into 2021 is, overall, we really see confidence by our customers and continued growth in the markets and that steady increase in demand.

因此我認為，需求確實推動了乙醯鏈的成長。我認為需求正在推動新興市場的成長。乙醯基市場在 12 月以及今年頭幾個月經歷了一些坎坷和波動。我認為這是基於人們對未來充滿信心，擔心這些最終導致相當輕微的供應中斷並造成市場波動。但我認為，總體而言，我們對 2021 年以及 2021 年的成長感到樂觀的原因是，總體而言，我們確實看到了客戶的信心、市場的持續成長以及需求的穩定成長。

Okay. And then in terms of the EM segments and your comment on higher raw material costs, you had a margin lag the last time we had a mini inflation cycle, if you will, on the raw materials side. How are you approaching pricing for this segment this time around? I realize there's a mix impact from health care, et cetera. But just your view in terms of how you're navigating the current raw material cost paradigm.

好的。然後，就新興市場領域和您對原材料成本上漲的評論而言，上次我們經歷小規模通膨週期時，在原材料方面，您的利潤率出現了滯後。這次您如何為該細分市場制定定價？我意識到醫療保健等因素會產生複雜的影響。但這只是您對如何應對當前原材料成本模式的看法。

Great. Thanks, Ghansham. Yes. We made a price increase in the fourth quarter. I would say we didn't see -- you wouldn't have seen a lot of impact to the bottom line from that. But that was really to get in front of some of these raw material increases we were seeing, certainly in December, and then expecting them to continue into the first quarter. We've made another price increase here in the first quarter. We think that should be enough to kind of keep it in front of the raw material environment that's developing and basically keep it flat, if you will, fourth quarter to first quarter.

偉大的。謝謝，Ghansham。是的。我們在第四季提高了價格。我想說的是，我們沒有看到——你不會看到這對底線造成太大的影響。但這實際上是為了應對我們所看到的一些原材料價格上漲，尤其是在 12 月份，然後預計這種上漲將持續到第一季。我們在第一季再次提高了價格。我們認為這應該足以讓它處於正在發展的原材料環境的前面，並且基本上保持平穩，如果你願意的話，第四季度到第一季。

So we think we're out in front of it. I mean our teams do a great job keeping our eyes on raw materials and trying to figure out what's happening and making sure that we can put sufficient price increases out there to cover the cost of raw materials. But there is always a bit of a lag, especially in EM, between when we see those raw material increases and when we see them in our books and when we can pass through prices. I think in this case, we have pretty low inventory. So we're seeing that a bit sooner. But feel confident that the price increases that we've made will be enough to largely offset the raw material increases in the first quarter.

因此我們認為我們已經領先了。我的意思是，我們的團隊做得很好，密切關注原材料，試圖弄清楚正在發生的事情，並確保我們能夠提高足夠的價格以彌補原材料的成本。但總是存在一些滯後，特別是在新興市場，在我們看到原材料價格上漲和我們在帳簿上看到這些價格上漲以及我們可以將其轉嫁到價格上之間。我認為在這種情況下，我們的庫存相當低。所以我們很快就看到了這一點。但請相信，我們所做出的價格上漲足以在很大程度上抵消第一季原物料價格的上漲。

Yes. And we should see the benefit of Ibn Sina and the equity earnings there in improving as that is a natural hedge for the Engineered Materials business as a partial offset to some of the raw material inflation that we're seeing there.

是的。我們應該看到伊本西納及其股權收益的改善，因為這是工程材料業務的自然對沖，可以部分抵消我們所看到的部分原材料通膨。

Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Lori, you decided to keep the Asia capacity in acetyls. Can you tell us how the acetyls profitability is today in natural gas versus oil versus coal? Maybe just give us a snapshot so we can understand the rationale behind the decision, because one would think that the coal-based production would be disadvantaged today.

洛里，你決定保留亞洲的乙醯基產能。您能告訴我們目前天然氣、石油和煤炭中乙醯基的獲利能力如何嗎？也許只需給我們一個快照，我們就可以理解該決定背後的理由，因為人們會認為今天以煤炭為基礎的生產將處於不利地位。

Yes. If you look at this, I mean, clearly, the U.S. Gulf Coast has an advantage. And we don't really see any scenarios where natural gas prices go up to the point where there wouldn't be that advantage. That's clearly an advantage. If you look at Clear Lake, the combination of our size, our ability to generate our own methanol and from our own CO, all that, I mean -- and our technology, the Celanese technology, Clear Lake is probably definitely the lowest end of the cost curve if you look at acetic acid producers around the world.

是的。如果你看一下這個，我的意思是，顯然美國墨西哥灣沿岸具有優勢。我們確實沒有看到天然氣價格上漲到不再具有這種優勢的程度的情況。這顯然是一個優勢。如果你看看 Clear Lake，我們的規模、我們生產甲醇和利用我們自己的二氧化碳的能力，所有這些，我的意思是 - 以及我們的技術，塞拉尼斯技術，如果你看看世界各地的醋酸生產商，Clear Lake 可能絕對是成本曲線最低的。

But because of our technology and because of some of the contracts that we've been able to negotiate, if you look at Singapore, certainly kind of this is $40 to $50 oil, it is also very cost competitive. And even Nanjing, even at higher coal prices, I would say all of our facilities are in the top 25% to 30% in terms of -- top, meaning the best, 25% or 30% of all of the acetic acid facilities in the world. So yes. Although Singapore and Nanjing are higher cost producers, they are still highly competitive with other players around the world.

但由於我們的技術以及我們已經能夠談判的一些合同，如果你看看新加坡，這裡的油價肯定是 40 到 50 美元，而且成本也非常有競爭力。即使在南京，即使在煤炭價格上漲的情況下，我想說我們所有的醋酸設施都處於世界前 25% 到 30% 的水平，也就是最好的水平，佔世界所有醋酸設施的 25% 或 30%。是的。儘管新加坡和南京的生產成本較高，但它們與世界其他經濟體相比仍具有很強的競爭力。

Yes. And P.J., as we said in the prepared remarks, one of the important parts of the strategy is flexibility. And the raw material agreements that we now have in place, plus the CO unit acquisition we did a few years ago and now being under our control, giving us that ability to flex up and down, gives us a lot more optionality than we've ever had in the past. And so we are really excited about the ability to flex as needed based upon different raw material environments, which, as we know, will move all over the place over time.

是的。P.J.，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，該策略的一個重要部分是靈活性。我們現在已經達成的原料協議，加上幾年前我們收購的二氧化碳裝置，現在都在我們的控制之下，這讓我們有能力靈活調整，讓我們擁有比過去更多的選擇權。因此，我們對根據不同原材料環境按需調整的能力感到非常興奮，我們知道，隨著時間的推移，原材料環境會發生變化。

I would also mention, P.J., that shipping and distribution is not an insignificant cost and is going up these days. And so maintaining that capacity in Asia to serve the Asian market is also attractive versus shipping everything necessarily from the U.S.

P.J.，我還想提一下，運輸和配送的成本並不小，最近還在上漲。因此，與必須從美國運輸所有產品相比，保持在亞洲的產能來服務亞洲市場也具有吸引力。

Great. And a question for Scott. First of all, congratulations on buying back stock. Not many companies were able to do that in 2020. So your timing was good. As you replace Polyplastics capacity in Asia, which is the growth market, you build LCP and maybe a few other plants, what kind of total CapEx do you need over the next few years? And your M&A comment, is that M&A mostly targeted towards Asia to replace Polyplastics?

偉大的。還有一個問題想問史考特。首先恭喜您回購股票。2020 年能夠做到這一點的公司並不多。所以你的時機很好。當您取代寶理塑膠在亞洲（成長市場）的產能時，您會建造 LCP 工廠和其他一些工廠，未來幾年您需要什麼樣的總資本支出？您對併購的評論是，併購主要針對亞洲，以取代寶理塑膠嗎？

Well, let me start, and then I'll have Lori talk about views on capital going forward. I mean look, we've been very consistent in wanting kind of a balanced capital deployment strategy and also being able to take advantage of the options that come in front of us. And so we want to be able to do M&A. We feel really good about not just the cash we have on hand, but the additional firepower that we have on the balance sheet being very clean. And as earnings continue to improve, that will only give us more horsepower to do M&A going forward. And so we felt like it was the right time to bring forward our plan on the 2021 repurchases and due in the first half. And we'll continue to monitor the M&A pipeline, and we'll pivot as needed throughout the year. The $500 million or so that we expect in capital this year is kind of the first tranche of this wave of organic growth that we've been kind of weaving in and sprinkling in with announcements here in the last 6 months or so. And as Lori talked about before, that's going to be an important part of our Investor Day story that we have in March.

好吧，讓我先開始，然後我會讓 Lori 談談對未來資本的看法。我的意思是，我們一直非常一致地希望擁有平衡的資本配置策略，並且能夠利用擺在我們面前的選擇。因此我們希望能夠進行併購。我們不僅對手頭上的現金感到非常滿意，而且對我們資產負債表上的額外火力也感到非常滿意。隨著獲利不斷改善，這只會為我們未來的併購提供更強大的動力。因此，我們認為現在是提前實施 2021 年回購計畫並於上半年到期的正確時機。我們將繼續監控併購管道，並根據需要全年調整。我們預計今年的資本約為 5 億美元，這是我們在過去 6 個月左右的公告中不斷融入的這波有機成長的第一波。正如 Lori 之前所說的那樣，這將成為我們三月投資者日故事的重要組成部分。

Yes. And I would say, in terms of capital deployment, yes, I expect we'll be at this kind of $500 million level of CapEx for the next few years, really focused on organic growth. And while a lot of it will be in Asia, so LCP as an example, we've talked about trying to build out our compounding as well as our technology capability in Asia, this is really about having the ability to respond quickly to our customers in Asia. We're also making investments in other parts of the world. I mean we've had the Forli Center of Excellence to better serve our European customers. We've talked about the Bishop GUR expansion. And we continue to do footprint optimization in the U.S. to better -- and also technology build-out in the U.S. to better serve our U.S. and North American customers. So I would say that growth is going to be all over the world, maybe a bit more Asia focus, but really spread where we need it to best serve our customers.

是的。我想說，就資本配置而言，是的，我預計未來幾年我們的資本支出將達到 5 億美元的水平，並真正專注於有機成長。雖然其中很大一部分將在亞洲進行，以 LCP 為例，我們已經討論過嘗試在亞洲建立我們的複合以及技術能力，但這實際上是為了能夠快速回應我們在亞洲的客戶。我們也在世界其他地區進行投資。我的意思是，我們擁有弗利卓越中心，可以更好地服務我們的歐洲客戶。我們已經討論過 Bishop GUR 擴充。我們將繼續在美國進行佈局優化，以便更好地服務美國和北美客戶。所以我想說，成長將會遍布全球，也許會更專注於亞洲，但真正擴展到我們需要的地區，以便為客戶提供最好的服務。

And I would say in terms of what we're replacing, I would like to mention, while -- Polyplastics, we -- was always marketed by Polyplastics. So those molecules weren't really in our portfolio, if you would say. We're really excited about KEP, in fact, that we now will be able to put those molecules into our portfolio as part of our Asia footprint. And now it gives us palm capacity globally, which we really didn't have before.

就我們所取代的產品而言，我想提一下，寶理塑膠始終是由寶理塑膠進行行銷的。所以如果你願意說的話，這些分子其實並不在我們的產品組合之內。事實上，我們對 KEP 感到非常興奮，我們現在能夠將這些分子納入我們的產品組合，作為我們亞洲業務的一部分。現在它為我們提供了全球範圍內的棕櫚產能，這是我們以前所沒有的。

Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, is that 2.6 million tons of capacity in Clear Lake that you say is capable, is that fully online in 2023?

洛里，您說清湖的產能是 260 萬噸，那麼到 2023 年能完全投入使用嗎？

Yes. It will have that capability fully in 2023. Now we need methanol and things to go with that, and we're working on that. But that capacity would be able to come up to that rate at the start-up. So essentially, we'll double the size of Clear Lake capacity.

是的。它將在 2023 年完全具備這項能力。現在我們需要甲醇和相關配套產品，我們正在努力實現這一目標。但該產能在啟動時就能達到該速率。因此，從本質上講，我們將使 Clear Lake 的容量增加一倍。

Are you expecting your announcements last night on capacity to forestall some other capacity in the marketplace that you -- that might be coming on stream?

您是否希望昨晚宣布的產能能夠阻止市場上其他可能投入使用的產能？

I can't say what others will do with the news that they have. But we certainly think this is the lowest capacity add available to the market, much, much lower than any greenfield would be and probably even lower than most other expansion can be. So we'll let others make their decision from there.

我無法預測其他人會如何處理他們所掌握的新聞。但我們確實認為這是市場上最低的新增產能，比任何綠地計畫的產能都要低得多，甚至可能比大多數其他擴建項目的產能還要低。因此，我們會讓其他人據此做出決定。

If I can ask one more. Just in EM, should we think more about, as you move toward more of a value-based approach, less volume and higher margins going forward in this segment? Is that fair?

如果我可以再問一個。僅在 EM 中，隨著您轉向更多基於價值的方法，我們是否應該更多地考慮該領域未來銷量的減少和利潤率的提高？這樣公平嗎？

Look, we always focus on margin. I would say we're also, though focusing on volume in terms of we think that we can add more volume to our system and get high margins on them as well. So I don't think it's a trade-off but we certainly are at the point where we think we need to add additional volume in order to continue to deliver into high-value market.

你看，我們總是關注利潤。我想說的是，儘管我們關注的是數量，但我們認為我們可以為我們的系統增加更多的數量，並獲得高利潤。所以我不認為這是一種權衡，但我們確實認為我們需要增加額外的產量，以便繼續向高價值市場提供服務。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

Perhaps a little bit on that line of questioning. So you expanded your GUR plant pretty recently. And since then, EV sales have picked up fairly significantly. Where are you on filling out that new capacity?

或許有點類似這樣的疑問。所以你們最近擴建了 GUR 工廠。自那時起，電動車的銷量開始大幅回升。您在哪裡可以填補這新容量？

Well, so the Bishop GUR plant won't start up until really early 2022. Obviously, we would like to get it up as soon as possible because that market is growing very robustly. To put it in perspective, that business grew 25% in 2020 versus 2019. So we are anxious to get that plant up and expect to certainly fill it out within the first year or so of start-up.

那麼，Bishop GUR 工廠要到 2022 年初才會啟動。顯然，我們希望盡快實現這一目標，因為該市場正在非常強勁地成長。從這個角度來看，2020 年該業務較 2019 年成長了 25%。因此，我們急切地希望這座工廠能夠建成，並希望在投產後的第一年左右就能夠將其填滿。

I got ahead of you there. And then -- so you'd mentioned demand is starting to pull back in the acetic acid market as prices increase. Is that substitution? Or is it simply just price sensitivity and people subsiding on that panic buying you were talking about?

我在那裡領先你。然後—您提到隨著價格上漲，醋酸市場的需求開始回落。這算是替代嗎？或者這只是價格敏感性和人們對您所說的恐慌性購買的消退？

I don't -- we -- so Matthew, I'm not sure where you got that. We're not really seeing demand pullback yet in acetic acid. We actually think we're kind of back at normalized levels of demand. There's a little bit of supply insecurity as there were some minor outages in Asia and a little bit of panic buying of people restocking, warring depots, I think because they thought maybe those outages would be longer. But I would say, the level of demand we're at now is holding fairly steady from fourth quarter last year into first quarter of this year. And I think it's really a normalized level of demand that we should expect to see going forward.

我不知道——我們——所以馬修，我不確定你從哪裡得到這個。我們還沒有真正看到醋酸需求的回落。我們實際上認為我們已經恢復到正常的需求水準。由於亞洲出現了一些小規模的供應中斷，人們為了補貨而出現一些恐慌性購買，導致供應出現一些不安全的情況，我認為這是因為他們認為這些中斷可能會持續更長時間。但我想說，我們目前的需求水準從去年第四季到今年第一季保持相當穩定。我認為這確實是我們未來應該看到的正常化需求水準。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

On Slide 11 of your supplemental materials, you're kind enough to give us volume numbers for each of your segments. And as I look at those numbers, looks like you grew acetyl chain volumes 19% in the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis. And so I was wondering -- I know you had the Clear Lake outage. Is that a representative number? And if it is, could you just talk about your operating rates these days in acetyls relative to the broader industry?

在您的補充資料的第 11 張投影片上，您非常友好地提供了每個部分的數量數字。當我看到這些數字時，我發現第四季乙醯鏈產量年增了 19%。所以我想知道——我知道 Clear Lake 發生了停電。這是一個代表性的數字嗎？如果是的話，您能否談談目前乙醯基產業的營運率相對於整個產業的營運率如何？

Yes. So if you look at Q4 '19 to Q4 '20, we did grow volume, as you mentioned, about 19%. There's a number of factors there. First is we did add Elotex in April of 2020. So there's some volume that comes with Elotex that gets added to those numbers. We did see, of course, demand recovery in fourth quarter of '20 and some tightness in the market, which helps drive volumes up. I would also remind you, we had a fairly significant outage at our Clear Lake plant in fourth quarter of last year. And although we had secured some volumes last year to cover that, fourth quarter last year was actually a little bit softer quarter than we typically have seen in acetyls.

是的。因此，如果您查看 2019 年第四季度至 2020 年第四季度，我們的銷量確實增長了約 19%，正如您所說。這其中有很多因素。首先，我們確實在 2020 年 4 月增加了 Elotex。因此，Elotex 的銷量會加到這些數字中。當然，我們確實看到 20 年第四季需求復甦以及市場有些緊張，這有助於推動銷量上升。我還要提醒您，去年第四季度，我們的 Clear Lake 工廠發生了相當嚴重的停電。儘管我們去年已經確保了一定數量的產品來滿足這一需求，但去年第四季的乙醯基產品銷售實際上比我們通常看到的要疲軟一些。

So I would say, one, it was a strong fourth quarter for acetyls in terms of demand. Certainly, the best we've seen this year, not surprising with COVID. But even good versus last year. As we see the market normalizing, we saw a little less seasonality. We saw some seasonality in emulsions, but we're able to shift that volume into strong demand for acid and VAM, especially in China. And that's really where we saw the difference in strength this year, much stronger demand in China this year; Western Hemisphere, about the same.

所以我想說，首先，就需求而言，第四季乙醯基市場表現強勁。當然，這是我們今年見過的最好的情況，對於 COVID 來說這並不奇怪。但與去年相比還是不錯的。隨著市場逐漸正常化，季節性因素已減弱。我們發現乳液有一定的季節性，但我們能夠將這種需求轉化為對酸和VAM的強勁需求，尤其是在中國。這就是我們今年真正看到的強度差異，今年中國的需求強勁得多；西半球的需求大致相同。

Maybe you anticipated my follow-up question. I think earlier in 2020, you talked about shifting volumes downstream into emulsions and perhaps other derivatives. Has that reversed? Or how would you characterize the outlook there for the acetyls mix here in early '21?

也許您已經預料到我的後續問題。我認為在 2020 年早些時候，您就談到將產量轉移到下游的乳液和其他衍生品。情況已經逆轉了嗎？或者您如何描述 21 年初乙醯混合物的前景？

Yes. I would say VAM demand, VAM pricing is also very strong right now. Emulsions is a little softer right now, which is -- but that's really a seasonal impact as it's colder, less demand for paints and coatings. So probably a little bit more in the first quarter into acetic acid, especially the higher acetic acid pricing we're seeing in China. But I would tell you, across the entirety of the chain right now, we're seeing a lot of strength in acetyls.

是的。我想說的是，VAM 需求和 VAM 定價目前也非常強勁。目前乳液稍微軟一些，但這實際上是季節性的影響，因為天氣變冷，對油漆和塗料的需求減少。因此，第一季醋酸的產量可能會略有增加，尤其是我們看到中國醋酸價格上漲。但我要告訴你，目前在整個鏈中，我們看到乙醯基具有很強的強度。

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Yefremov with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov。

Lori, you've elected to expand Clear Lake and your Singapore acetic acid capacity, so your total capacity would be larger than the initial plan of shutting down Singapore. Why wouldn't the benefit of this expansion be larger than the initial $100 million benefit?

洛里，您已選擇擴大 Clear Lake 和新加坡的醋酸產能，因此您的總產能將比最初關閉新加坡的計劃更大。為什麼這次擴張帶來的收益不會大於最初的 1 億美元收益？

Yes. So we actually never said we were going to shut down Singapore. We always said that we would look at reducing capacity in Asia, which could have been Singapore or Nanjing or a combination of the 2. Clearly, with the supply contracts now, we have an intention to run all 3 of them flexibly and as needed to meet demand.

是的。所以我們實際上從未說過要關閉新加坡。我們一直說，我們會考慮減少亞洲的產能，可能是新加坡或南京，或是兩者的結合。顯然，根據現在的供應合同，我們打算靈活地運行所有三個工廠，並根據需要滿足需求。

So look, on Clear Lake, yes, the capacity that we've announced is larger. What we have justified the projects on and the credits that we've shared are simply the productivity. So we've assumed, even if the market needs no additional capacity, what are the benefits? So we get a $100 million benefit on that $350 million investment. Clearly, if there is more demand in the market and it makes sense to run Clear Lake higher our other facilities around the world at higher rates, then there is a lot of additional upside for this project. But that's -- that was not our justification for the project. So that's just all upside for the future if we see [about] the peak-type growth and are able to produce into it.

所以，看看 Clear Lake，是的，我們宣布的容量更大。我們所證明的項目和我們所分享的榮譽只是生產力。所以我們假設，即使市場不需要額外的容量，有什麼好處呢？因此，我們從這 3.5 億美元的投資中獲得了 1 億美元的收益。顯然，如果市場需求增加，而 Clear Lake 的運行速度比我們在世界各地的其他設施更快，那麼這個項目將具有很大的額外優勢。但那不是我們開展該計畫的理由。因此，如果我們看到高峰成長並且能夠實現的話，這對未來來說都是好事。

And have you made a decision whether to integrate into methanol directly by building or acquiring capacity or whether to purchase in the emerging market in the U.S. for this expansion?

您是否已經決定透過建設或收購產能直接進入甲醇領域，還是在美國新興市場購買以進行擴張？

Yes. So I mean we are still looking at methanol and what we want to do around like methanol. As you know, we already have a JV there with our partner, Mitsui. So we are really looking at, do we want to expand? We have the capability for a very low-cost expansion to get about another 25% capacity there. We're also looking at, are there opportunities to do things with recycled streams and others?

是的。所以我的意思是我們仍在研究甲醇以及我們想圍繞甲醇做些什麼。如您所知，我們已經與合作夥伴三井在那裡建立了合資企業。所以我們真正在考慮的是，我們是否想要擴張？我們有能力以非常低的成本擴張，以獲得另外約 25% 的產能。我們也在研究是否有機會利用回收流和其他資源來做事？

So the good news is, in the U.S., there's very strong commodity methanol market, so we always have the opportunity to buy methanol as well. And quite frankly, we like having the exposure to the market. We like having our own. If you look at it right now, we produce about 35% to 40% of the methanol that we need in our own system. And going forward, after the expansion, certainly after the initial phases, we still will have about that amount. But quite frankly, we're still in the process of deciding what we want to do in Clear Lake in terms of methanol expansion or whether we just want to continue on the market.

好消息是，在美國，商品甲醇市場非常強勁，所以我們也總是有機會購買甲醇。坦白說，我們喜歡接觸市場。我們喜歡擁有自己的。如果你現在看一下，我們自己的系統生產了我們所需的約 35% 到 40% 的甲醇。展望未來，在擴張之後，當然是在初始階段之後，我們仍然會有大約這個數量。但坦白說，我們仍在決定在 Clear Lake 進行甲醇擴張還是繼續留在市場上。

Our next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

Maybe this one for Scott. So when I look at the earnings that you're calling for, for this year, it's roughly in line with what we saw in 2019. Back then, you generated about $1.1 billion of free cash flow. So it seems like the better than $700 million number that you're putting out for this year, maybe on the light side. Are there any major puts and takes that we should be thinking about when kind of comparing the 2? I know the CapEx is going to be up a bit, but it doesn't seem like it makes up anywhere near the difference. So I guess how should we be thinking about that?

也許這個是給斯科特的。因此，當我查看您預測的今年的收益時，它與我們在 2019 年看到的收益大致相同。當時，您產生了約 11 億美元的自由現金流。因此，您今年提出的數字似乎比 7 億美元更好，可能還算樂觀。在比較這兩者時，我們是否應該考慮一些重大的利弊？我知道資本支出會略有增加，但似乎並不能彌補差額。那我想我們應該如何考慮這個問題呢？

Yes. So John, I kind of break it into 3 categories. The first is the CapEx, as you mentioned, call that $100 million, $150 million or so increase. The next is the $100-or-so million that we had with the EU settlement, which has already been paid here in the month of January. And the last area is kind of what I would call working capital rebuild a bit here. Obviously, working capital came way off during 2020. We also saw raw materials fall a lot. So that was magnified. Now we see as business really returns and things move up, there is a natural rebuild of working capital that will come with that. In addition, we're expecting higher raw material environment. So that will then kind of add another layer on to that working capital.

是的。所以約翰，我把它分成 3 類。首先是資本支出，正如您所說，增加了 1 億美元、1.5 億美元左右。接下來是我們與歐盟達成的約 1 億美元的和解金，這筆錢已於 1 月支付。最後一個領域是我所說的營運資本重建。顯然，2020 年營運資金大幅減少。我們也看到原物料價格大幅下跌。所以這被放大了。現在我們看到，隨著業務真正復甦和情況好轉，隨之而來的是營運資本的自然重建。此外，我們預期原料環境將會更加優良。因此這將為營運資金增加另一層。

So those are really the 3 components. I would not look at things being anything fundamentally different in our operations. It's just more kind of timing of some of these things coming in.

所以這實際上就是 3 個組成部分。我不認為我們的營運會有什麼根本的不同。這只是一些事情發生的時機問題而已。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

How do you think your Engineered Materials volumes in 2021 will compare to 2019?

您認為 2021 年工程材料銷售量與 2019 年相比如何？

Yes. I think if we look at the volumes -- so if you look at our base business volumes, our volumes in '21, I think, will be very comparable to 2019, and maybe even -- certainly, ourselves on our base business, we think, will be above 2019. But the volumes will be comparable to maybe slightly better. So I think our base business is kind of back to that 2019 level.

是的。我認為，如果我們看一下交易量 - 如果你看一下我們的基礎業務量，我認為我們在 21 年的交易量將與 2019 年非常相似，甚至 - 當然，我們認為我們的基礎業務量將高於 2019 年。但銷量將相當，甚至可能略好一些。所以我認為我們的基礎業務已經回到了 2019 年的水平。

And again, that assumes some level of recovery, but not all in medical. So medical is not a huge volume, but it is a huge earning. So there is some additional upside if we would see earlier return of elective procedures than we currently have in the forecast.

再次強調，這假設一定程度的恢復，但並非全部在醫學上。因此，醫療業務的規模雖然不大，但效益卻非常龐大。因此，如果我們看到選擇性手術比目前預測的更早恢復，那麼還會有一些額外的好處。

What do you think the EBIT penalty was from medical in 2020?

您認為 2020 年醫療產業的息稅前利潤罰款是多少？

In 2020, it was tens of millions. So it was significant when you look at it on the EM base earnings.

2020年更是達到數千萬。因此，當你從新興市場基本收益來看時，它就具有重要意義。

Our next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Nice enter the year, nice dividend hike. I wanted to ask that volume question on acetyls a little bit differently. It was up sequentially 6% in acetic VAM and EVA. And you also mentioned that you proactively sourced material prior to your turnaround.

新年伊始，股息大幅上漲。我想以稍微不同的方式詢問有關乙醯基的體積問題。醋酸VAM和EVA較上季上漲6%。您也提到，在扭轉局面之前，您主動尋找材料。

So I was just curious. The proactive sourcing, was that kind of a -- was that a very neat match in terms of what you lost from your turnaround? Or how should we think about what you might have been able to do if you didn't have that turnaround? And it was just curious to see higher volumes in 4Q relative to 3Q, so I was just trying to understand that a little bit better how that worked out.

所以我只是好奇。主動採購，是那種——就您在扭虧為盈中所失去的東西而言，這是一種非常巧妙的匹配嗎？或者，如果您沒有經歷這樣的轉變，我們應該如何思考您可能會做些什麼？我很好奇第四季度的交易量相對於第三季度有所增加，所以我想更好地了解一下這是如何實現的。

Yes. Well, I think with higher volumes in the fourth quarter versus third quarter, a lot is just based upon demand recovery and producing into that demand. You're right. We lost some volume in Clear Lake, but we did buy volumes in order to provide our customers around the globe to replace that. We also always do watch the market. And if we see what we think is a tightening market and a higher demand market, we will source additional materials in order to anticipate customer needs and make sure we have sufficient volumes together. So all of those 3 things, I think, came together in the fourth quarter. And what we ended up seeing was both a very high-volume demand quarter as well as a very good pricing quarter.

是的。嗯，我認為第四季的產量比第三季更高，很大程度上只是基於需求復甦和滿足需求的生產。你說得對。我們在 Clear Lake 損失了一些產量，但我們確實購買了一些產量，以便為全球客戶提供替代產品。我們也始終關注市場。如果我們發現市場趨緊且需求增加，我們將採購更多材料，以預測客戶需求並確保我們擁有足夠的數量。所以我認為這三件事都在第四季出現了。我們最終看到的是一個需求量非常大的季度以及一個非常好的定價季度。

Yes. No. It certainly was a very good pricing quarter. And obviously, your results reflected that typically, a lot of purchasing agents will try and get ahead of price increases, et cetera. And so do you have any good feel as to what amount of that demand was restock? Or how do you think about that just in general inventory levels at your customers as they stand in 4Q and today?

是的。不。這確實是一個非常好的定價季度。顯然，您的結果反映出，通常情況下，許多採購代理商都會試圖搶在價格上漲之前，等等。那麼，您是否清楚其中有多少需求是補貨的呢？或者您如何看待客戶的整體庫存水準（第四季度和現在的水準）？

Yes. Look, we think there was a little bit of restock happening in Asia. Not really the Western Hemisphere. Really, we saw it in China, to be specific. So we think there was a little bit of restock. But again, the ability to restock is not very big in the acetyl chain. These are, for the most part, liquid products, and they go into tanks, and people have limited amount of tanks. So you're talking about the difference between people holding 30 days of inventory versus 20. So it was a small amount that went into restock. I don't think it will be meaningful as we go forward in terms of affecting overall demand for our products.

是的。看，我們認為亞洲正在進行少量補貨。實際上並非西半球。確實，具體來說，我們在中國看到了這種情況。因此我們認為有少量補貨。但同樣，乙醯鏈的補給能力不是很大。這些大部分都是液體產品，需要裝入儲罐中，但人們的儲罐數量有限。所以您說的是持有 30 天庫存和持有 20 天庫存之間的差異。因此，只有少量資金用於補貨。我認為，就影響我們產品的整體需求而言，這不會有什麼意義。

Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Congratulations on the progress of '20. I guess -- apologies if I missed this earlier. But you're guiding to around $250 million, $275 million or so for Q1. And I think you had some comments as it relates to EM that Q2 and Q3 would be better and Q4 looks like Q1. So your EPS guidance for the full year is $9.50 to $10. I just -- so are you calling for a Q2, Q3 level of EPS that's below Q1? Maybe you can just help us square that out.

祝賀 20 年的進步。我想——如果我之前錯過了這一點，我很抱歉。但您預計第一季的營收將在 2.5 億美元至 2.75 億美元左右。我認為您對 EM 有一些評論，即 Q2 和 Q3 會更好，而 Q4 看起來像 Q1。因此，您對全年每股收益的預期是 9.50 美元至 10 美元。我只是—那麼您認為第二季、第三季的每股盈餘會低於第一季嗎？也許您可以幫助我們解決這個問題。

Yes. I think -- look, I think the real -- the swing factor here is really acetyls. Acetyls for Q1, we're saying it's going to be at or above $225 million. If we look going forward, as I said, I think acetyl will be more in that $170 million to $200 million range, which is the more normalized range. Again, EM will probably be slightly up in second and third quarter, but we do expect that drop in acetyl. So that's how we get to the $9.50 to $10.

是的。我認為——看，我認為真正的——這裡的影響因素確實是乙醯基。我們預計第一季乙醯基產品的銷售額將達到或超過 2.25 億美元。如果我們展望未來，正如我所說，我認為乙醯基的價值將在 1.7 億至 2 億美元的範圍內，這是更正常的範圍。同樣，EM 可能會在第二季和第三季略有上升，但我們確實預計乙醯基會下降。這就是我們得到 9.50 美元到 10 美元的結果。

Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up. On the capital allocation side, you obviously have relatively low leverage. You've got a lot of opportunities in front of you, both organic and inorganic. And you already laid out your priorities on buybacks. So I'm just curious, are there any other potential asset sales that you're evaluating or divestments that would maybe give you a little bit more firepower on the buyback side? Yes, maybe you can just discuss that.

好的。偉大的。然後只是作為後續行動。在資本配置方面，你的槓桿率顯然相對較低。你面前有很多機會，既有有機的，也有無機的。您已經列出了回購的優先事項。所以我很好奇，您是否正在評估其他潛在的資產出售或資產剝離，這可能會為您在回購方面帶來更多火力？是的，也許你可以討論一下。

Look, I would just say we constantly reevaluate our portfolio. There -- I would also tell you though, there's nothing meaningfully out there. And from gaining more firepower, I mean we have quite a lot at the moment. We don't think that's going to be a factor in what we pursue in terms of M&A.

你看，我只想說我們不斷重新評估我們的投資組合。那裡——不過我還要告訴你，那裡沒有任何有意義的東西。透過獲得更多的火力，我的意思是我們目前擁有相當多的火力。我們認為這不會成為我們進行併購的因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company 的 Matthew Blair。

Lori, are you able to share acetyl chain utilization rates by region?

Lori，您能分享各地區的乙醯鏈使用率嗎？

I'm sorry. It wasn't quite -- utilization rates for acetic acid or acetyl?

對不起。這並不完全是——乙酸或乙醯基的利用率？

Yes, yes. For your acetyls business by region.

是的，是的。按地區劃分您的乙醯業務。

I'm not sure I have it exactly by region. I can talk a little bit about China and maybe globally. So if we look at the fourth quarter, for example, both China and global acetic acid utilization was up about 5% from the previous quarter. And again, that was based on higher demand, not because of higher outages. And if you look at what that translates to, that really was kind of low 80s in China. And remember, there's a lot of capacity in China that doesn't get actually run to acetic acid that sits on the books. And then the global, we saw actually the globe utilization crossing over kind of even into that low 90% range a couple of different times during the quarter. As we go into the first quarter, we're seeing kind of the same level of utilization, both in China and in the globe.

我不確定我是否準確地了解了各個地區的情況。我可以談一點關於中國以及全球的事情。例如，如果我們看第四季度，中國和全球的醋酸利用率都比上一季成長了約 5%。再次強調，這是基於更高的需求，而不是因為停電次數增加。如果你看一下這意味著什麼，你會發現，在中國，這確實是 80 年代初期的水平。請記住，中國有許多產能並未真正用於生產帳面上的醋酸。然後從全球來看，我們實際上看到本季全球利用率有幾次甚至超過了 90% 的低點。進入第一季度，我們發現中國和全球的利用率水準大致相同。

Yes, Matthew. The global number is a really important number. I mean these are global markets, product can move all over. And so that is really what drives things really in the short and long-term, is what's happening with global utilization.

是的，馬修。全球數字是一個非常重要的數字。我的意思是這些都是全球市場，產品可以四處流通。因此，這才是短期和長期真正推動事態發展的因素，也是全球利用率的變化趨勢。

But I think it's probably fair to say that anything that's based on U.S. Gulf Coast natural gas is running at 100% if they're mechanically capable of doing so.

但我認為，可以公平地說，任何基於美國墨西哥灣沿岸天然氣的設備，如果機械性能允許的話，都可以 100% 運行。

Our last question comes from the line of Edlain Rodriguez with Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Edlain Rodriguez。

Just one quick one on the EPS guidance. Like when you're looking at the numbers, like what do you see upside or downside to those numbers? Like is it a pricing thing? Or is it volume? And how much of that depends on the faster or slower rollout of the vaccine?

關於 EPS 指導，我只想簡單說一句。例如，當您查看這些數字時，您認為這些數字有哪些優點或缺點？就像是定價問題一樣？還是音量？這在多大程度上取決於疫苗推出的速度是快是慢？

Look, I think for Q1 and for the full year, obviously, the upside comes if we continue to see strong demand in acetic acid even above, say, where we are today. Or if we were to see significant supply outages in acetic acid, that would certainly be an upside to both the quarter and to the year.

我認為，對於第一季和全年而言，如果我們繼續看到對醋酸的強勁需求，甚至高於目前的水平，那麼顯然就會出現上行趨勢。或者，如果我們看到乙酸供應嚴重中斷，那麼對於本季和全年而言，這無疑都是有利的。

I think the obvious biggest challenge on the downside is what you laid out in terms of COVID is, do the markets lose confidence? Do we see automakers, for example, shut down again for 2 months? That would be the biggest downside. The vaccine rolling out helps, I think, in that area of confidence and also pretty sure we have enough employees who are well to run plants around the globe.

我認為下檔方面最明顯的挑戰就是您在 COVID 方面提出的挑戰，市場是否失去了信心？例如，我們是否會看到汽車製造商再次停工兩個月？那將是最大的缺點。我認為，疫苗的推出有助於增強信心，我們確信我們有足夠的員工來管理全球各地的工廠。

As I said earlier, it is a downside. We're not baking that in because, quite frankly, we're not seeing that behavior from our customers. What we're seeing is people have demand, people want to run, people are back at normal buying patterns. So unless we see a significant change from where we've been to date on COVID, we think that's a manageable downside risk.

正如我之前所說，這是一個缺點。我們沒有考慮到這一點，因為坦白說，我們沒有看到客戶有這種行為。我們看到的是人們有需求，人們想要跑步，人們恢復了正常的購買模式。因此，除非我們看到與迄今為止的 COVID 情況相比有重大變化，否則我們認為這是一個可控的下行風險。

I'd like to hand it back to Brandon Ayache for closing remarks.

我想將其交還給 Brandon Ayache 進行最後發言。

Thank you. And we want to thank everybody for listening in today. As usual, we're around after the call if you have any further questions. Doug, please go ahead and close out the call.

謝謝。我們要感謝大家今天的收聽。像往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，我們會在通話結束後隨時為您服務。道格，請繼續並結束通話。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路，享受美好的一天。