塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Corporation's First Quarter 2020 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2020 年第一季電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Abe Paul, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、投資人關係副總裁Abe Paul。請開始。

Thank you, Brock. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Abe Paul, Vice President, Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，Brock。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2020年第一季業績電話會議。我是投資人關係副總裁Abe Paul。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長Lori Ryerkerk和財務長Scott Richardson。

Celanese Corporation distributed its first quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared remarks about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday after market close. As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You will find the definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

塞拉尼斯公司透過美國商業資訊 (Business Wire) 發布其第一季財報，並在昨日收盤後於投資者關係網站上發布了本季度的備忘評論。提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as the prepared comments document. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的簡報還將包含前瞻性陳述。請閱讀新聞稿末尾關於前瞻性陳述的警示性措辭以及準備好的評論文件。包含所有這些資料的8-K表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

I will turn the call to Lori for opening remarks before we open the line directly for your questions. Lori?

在我們直接回答你們的問題之前，我會先把電話轉給 Lori 做開場發言。 Lori？

Thank you, Abe. Thank you, Abe. Before we turn it over for questions, I would like to take a moment or two to make just a few comments. We all recognize the unprecedented challenges the world is facing right now. On behalf of Celanese, I want to extend our sympathy to all of those affected by the coronavirus pandemic and express our gratitude to those who are working tirelessly on the front line to keep us all safe. I want to acknowledge and thank our employees across the world. Each one has been impacted in some way and amid their very individual circumstances, they have collectively performed exceptionally well. I particularly want to thank our manufacturing employees around the globe who have kept our plants running to make and ship products to our customers. I also want to acknowledge our employees working from home, who are still supporting customers, closing deals, signing contracts and closing our books.

謝謝你，阿部。謝謝你，阿部。在我們開始提問之前，我想花點時間發表一些評論。我們都意識到世界目前正面臨前所未有的挑戰。我謹代表塞拉尼斯，向所有受新冠病毒疫情影響的人們表示慰問，並向那些在一線不知疲倦地工作以確保我們所有人安全的人們表示感謝。我要感謝我們遍佈全球的員工。每個人都受到了不同程度的影響，儘管他們的情況各不相同，但他們共同表現得非常出色。我特別要感謝我們遍佈全球的製造員工，是他們讓我們的工廠保持運轉，為客戶生產和運送產品。我還要感謝我們在家工作的員工，他們仍然在支持客戶、達成交易、簽訂合約並完成我們的帳目。

Our first quarter earnings per share of $2.29 reflects their efforts and was not far off from our original expectations before all this happened. The first quarter was tough, and the reality is the second quarter is shaping up to be far more challenging. Simply put, we do not yet know how far demand will ultimately drop or how long this will last. We have tried to be transparent in sharing where we have visibility. Fortunately, one of our great strengths at Celanese is a culture of resiliency and a can-do attitude. I would like to thank Mark, who recently announced his retirement as our Executive Chairman, for his support of me throughout the CEO transition but also for fostering over many years the development of this remarkable Celanese culture. Our culture is one of action. We have a lot we are working on to counter these challenges. I outlined much of that work yesterday in the script and we are looking forward to doing much more.

我們第一季每股收益2.29美元，這反映了他們的努力，並且與我們在這一切發生之前的最初預期相差不遠。第一季很艱難，而第二季的現實情況是，挑戰將更加艱鉅。簡而言之，我們尚不清楚需求最終會下降多少，也不知道這種情況會持續多久。我們一直努力透明地分享我們已知的資訊。幸運的是，塞拉尼斯的一大優勢就是堅韌不拔的文化和積極進取的態度。我要感謝最近宣布退休的執行董事長馬克，感謝他在執行長過渡期間對我的支持，以及多年來對卓越塞拉尼斯文化的培育。我們的文化是行動的文化。我們正在進行大量工作來應對這些挑戰。我昨天在文稿中概述了大部分工作，我們期待著更多工作。

In this environment, we are focused on 3 imperatives: first, keeping our employees safe and healthy; two, driving resilient cash flow in 2020; and three, positioning us for growth as we move into recovery. As a result of our work over many years, we are exceptionally well positioned today to weather this environment. Celanese is leaner, more nimble and a more diversified company today than it has been at any other time in its history. Above all, in my almost 1 year at Celanese, I have gained trust in our people and their ability to rise together to meet challenges. They have done it many times in our past and I am confident they will do it again. We are collectively focused on driving long-term shareholder value and positioning ourselves for robust growth when these challenges passed.

在這種環境下，我們專注於三大要務：第一，保障員工安全健康；第二，在2020年推動穩健的現金流；第三，在復甦過程中為成長做好準備。經過多年的努力，我們如今已具備應對當前情勢的良好條件。塞拉尼斯如今比歷史上任何時期都更加精簡、靈活和多元化。最重要的是，在塞拉尼斯工作的近一年時間裡，我對我們的員工以及他們齊心協力應對挑戰的能力深信不疑。他們過去曾多次做到這一點，我相信他們也會再做到。我們共同致力於推動長期股東價值，並為這些挑戰後強勁成長做好準備。

On a lighter note, like many of you, we are all doing this from our homes today. So please be a bit patient if we have lags or speak over each other or if you hear any strange noises in the background. With that, Abe, I'll turn it back over to you.

說點輕鬆的，跟你們很多人一樣，我們今天也都在家工作。所以，如果遇到卡頓、互相干擾，或聽到背景噪音，請耐心等待。好了，阿部，接下來就交給你了。

Thank you, Lori. Brock, you may now open the line directly for your questions.

謝謝你，洛里。布洛克，現在你可以直接接通電話回答你的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from PJ Juvekar of Citigroup.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 PJ Juvekar。

Hope everybody is well. I have a question for you. You guys were making a long-term move to add downstream capacity VAM emulsions in the U.S. With oil prices falling and natural gas prices kind of hanging in there, what's your take on the U.S. advantage? And how is -- how do you think the future regional capacity for Celanese breaks down?

希望大家一切安好。我有個問題想問你們。你們長期以來一直在努力增加美國VAM乳液的下游產能。目前油價下跌，天然氣價格卻基本持穩，您如何看待美國的優勢？您認為塞拉尼斯未來的區域產能分佈會如何？

Thanks, PJ. Yes, it's a question we've been looking at ourselves, but let me try to put it a bit in perspective. We think the U.S. gas, even at these low oil prices, will continue to be well advantaged. So just to put that in perspective, if we look at the difference between, let's say, acid production, between Clear Lake and Nanjing, our cost of production at Clear Lake is half of Nanjing even at low oil prices. And Singapore, which is affected by low oil prices, but it just comes down slightly below the cost at Nanjing. So you still have a 2:1 advantage at Clear Lake. And that advantage rolls through VAM and VAE and everything else. So while we don't have as much advantage now in the U.S. Gulf Coast versus other producers, it is still a big advantage versus producing out of coal or producing out of a low oil environment.

謝謝，PJ。是的，我們一直在思考這個問題，但讓我試著客觀地解釋。我們認為，即使在低油價下，美國天然氣仍將保持優勢。為了更客觀地看待這個問題，如果我們比較Clear Lake和南京之間酸產量的差異，即使在低油價下，Clear Lake的生產成本也只有南京的一半。新加坡也受到低油價的影響，但其成本略低於南京。因此，Clear Lake仍擁有2倍於南京的優勢。而這種優勢也延伸到VAM、VAE以及其他所有方面。因此，雖然我們目前在美國墨西哥灣沿岸與其他生產商相比沒有那麼大的優勢，但與煤炭生產或低油價環境下的生產相比，這仍然是一個巨大的優勢。

So our plans have not changed. We will continue on pace with our VAE and our VAM expansions. We are taking -- we are slowing the acetic acid reconfiguration project, as we noted in the script. Those productivity gains and the reason for doing that project are still intact, but we will pause it for a period of time to allow us to take advantage of these low oil cost environment and what that means for our Singapore operation.

所以我們的計劃沒有改變。我們將繼續推進VAE和VAM的擴建。正如我們在計劃中提到的，我們正在放緩醋酸重組項目的進度。該專案的生產力提升和實施該專案的初衷仍然不變，但我們會暫停一段時間，以便我們能夠充分利用低油價環境，並充分了解這對我們新加坡業務的意義。

Great. And a quick question for either you or Scott, Mark Rohr talked about for some time, a potential RMT transaction. Given the pandemic and Mark's upcoming retirement, would you think a probability of a large transaction is lower now?

好的。我想問您或斯科特一個問題，馬克·羅爾（Mark Rohr）一段時間以來一直在談論潛在的RMT交易。考慮到疫情和馬克即將退休，您認為現在發生大規模交易的可能性會降低嗎？

Yes, PJ, let me take that. Look, our first priority has been and will always remain generating the most possible value for the shareholders, and we constantly look at options to do so. I think in the current environment that we're seeing demand environment, this is difficult to do. Clearly, if you're looking at cash still, that's very difficult in this environment as everyone's valuations are down. We do, though, think there continues to be room for mergers of equals or RMTs, and we think there'll be even more opportunities for these things as we move towards full recovery.

是的，PJ，我來接手。你看，我們的首要任務一直是並將永遠是為股東創造最大價值，我們也一直在尋找實現這一目標的方案。我認為在當前市場需求旺盛的環境下，要做到這一點很難。顯然，如果你仍然持有現金，那麼在這種環境下，由於所有公司的估值都在下降，這非常困難。不過，我們確實認為對等合併或RMT仍有空間，而且隨著我們走向全面復甦，我們認為這類合併的機會將會更多。

The next question is from Duffy Fischer of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

I was wondering if you could just give us some help around the decremental margins. You gave some helpful quantitative numbers around what you think demand's going to do, acetyl is down 15% to 25%. But say, at the 15% level versus a 25% level, is there going to be a difference in the decrementals and kind of same thing for EM, if you would? Just walk through how should we think about the profitability relative to the sales fall.

我想知道您能否就利潤率的下降提供一些幫助。您給了一些有用的量化數據，說明了您認為需求會如何變化，乙醯基產品下降了15%到25%。但是，假設在15%的水平和25%的水平，利潤率的下降幅度會有所不同嗎？對於新興市場來說，情況會不會也類似？請您解釋一下，我們應該如何看待與銷售額下降相關的獲利能力。

Yes. So let me talk a little bit about the guidance we gave for Q2. So what we indicated in the script is we do expect to see in Q2, Engineered Material volumes down 25% to 35% versus Q1. Now with that, about 2/3 of that volume is still relatively sticky in terms of pricing. So we would expect those margins to maintain, possibly even get a little better as raws continue to go down. At the same time, about 1/3 of it is tied to raws. So we'll see those prices go down but margins generally stick around the same.

是的。那麼，讓我簡單談談我們給出的第二季業績指引。我們在報告中指出，我們預計第二季工程材料銷量將較第一季下降25%至35%。考慮到這一點，其中約三分之二的銷量在定價方面仍然相對穩定。因此，我們預計這些利潤率將保持穩定，甚至可能隨著原材料價格持續下降而略有改善。同時，約三分之一的銷售量與原料相關。因此，我們會看到這些價格下降，但利潤率基本上保持不變。

For acetyls, we project a volume decline of 15% to 25% in Q2 from Q1. A couple of things around that. India lockdown, Southeast Asia lockdown, we're just not seeing the volume demand there. And margins there tend to follow methanol and other things a bit. So probably expect to see our margins going down somewhat, but we would still expect acetyl margins in the mid-teens or so. So we do expect some margin compression in AC, expect margins to be similar in EM but down with the volume. And if you look at what that -- just to maybe put some numbers around it, we saw a $25 million to $30 million hit in Q1 just from Asia. And Asia represents 20% of our overall business. And that was really in February and March. So consider that, we've lost $10 million to $15 million per month on 20% of our business.

對於乙醯基產品，我們預計第二季的銷量將比第一季下降 15% 到 25%。這主要受幾個因素影響。印度和東南亞的封鎖，導致那裡的需求下降。這些地區的利潤率往往略微跟隨甲醇和其他產品的變化。因此，我們的利潤率可能會下降，但我們預計乙醯基產品的利潤率仍將在 15% 左右。因此，我們確實預期 AC 的利潤率會有所壓縮，EM 的利潤率也會類似，但會隨著銷售量的下降而下降。舉個例子，我們在第一季僅來自亞洲的業務就損失了 2500 萬到 3000 萬美元。而亞洲占我們整體業務的 20%。這還只是在二月和三月。所以，想想看，我們 20% 的業務每月損失 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元。

It's not unreasonable to expect we would see a similar impact in Q2 on the other 80% of our business in the Western Hemisphere. So if you do the math on that, we do expect somewhere between $150 million to $250 million impact on Q2 EBIT on the combination of volume and margin degradation. And how that -- as we go forward into Q3, Q4, we've done a lot of scenario planning, as I'm sure every company has. We think it's unlikely we're going to see a V-shape recovery. So coming back in Q3. But we do -- we have done scenario planning around it, U-shape or an L-shape. And broadly, expect Q3 to also be down, but some recovery in Q4. But again, we don't really know how broad this is going to be. We don't know the degree of the downturn, nor do we know the duration and of course, Asia recovery, how fast that actually happens is a big factor.

預計我們在第二季西半球其他80%的業務也會受到類似的影響，並非不合理。所以，如果算一下，我們預計第二季息稅前利潤將受到1.5億至2.5億美元的影響，這主要是由於銷售量和利潤率的下降。至於如何應對這種情況——隨著我們進入第三季和第四季度，我們已經做了很多情境規劃，我相信每家公司都這樣做。我們認為不太可能出現V型復甦。所以回到第三季。但我們已經圍繞它做了情境規劃，U型或L型。整體而言，預計第三季也會下滑，但第四季會回升。但同樣，我們真的不知道這種情況會蔓延到多遠。我們不知道經濟衰退的程度，也不知道持續時間，當然，亞洲的復甦速度究竟有多快也是重要因素。

Okay. And then could you speak to how your JVs have performed vis-à-vis how you performed, particularly in EM? I know at times over the last several years, Celanese has made the comment they felt some of those JVs were a little bit undermanaged on the cost side. So maybe just kind of walk through how you think they're doing versus the markets?

好的。那麼，您能否談談你們的合資企業的表現，以及您在新興市場的表現？我知道，在過去幾年裡，塞拉尼斯曾多次表示，他們認為有些合資企業在成本方面管理不善。所以，您能否簡單介紹一下，與市場表現相比，您認為它們的表現如何？

Yes. Let me start and then Scott may have some comments as well. I mean so in general, I mean in first quarter, our JVs look good, but generally, our JVs report on a quarter lag. So we would expect some downturn in the second quarter for our JVs that may not show up so much until third quarter. Ibn Sina may be slightly down more because it has a closer tie to crude. But that number and those JV numbers are baked into that $150 million to $250 million impact that we expect in Q2. Scott, do you want to add something?

是的。我先說到這裡，然後史考特可能也想說。我的意思是，總的來說，第一季我們的合資企業看起來不錯，但通常來說，合資企業的報告會落後一個季度。所以我們預計第二季合資企業會有一些下滑，但這種下滑可能要到第三季才會明顯顯現出來。伊本西納油田的下滑幅度可能更大，因為它與原油的連結更緊密。但這個數字以及合資企業的數據已經計入了我們預計第二季1.5億至2.5億美元的影響。史考特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. And I think -- yes. I think, Duffy, as we look at what our JVs are doing, they're very focused on cost right now as well. I mean they're not immune to this environment. Particularly our 2 JVs that are focused in Asia, we're hit with some of the softness in demand that we saw in Q1 as well and that will flow through a little bit into the second quarter, but hopefully, we'll start to see continued demand improvement, which will help them there. But that doesn't mean that they take their foot off the gas on working the cost side of the equation as well.

是的。我認為——是的。達菲，我認為，看看我們合資公司的表現，他們現在也非常關注成本。我的意思是，他們也無法免受這種環境的影響。特別是我們兩家專注於亞洲的合資公司，也受到了第一季需求疲軟的影響，這種影響將在一定程度上延續到第二季​​。但希望我們能看到需求持續改善，這將對他們有所幫助。但這並不意味著他們會在成本方面放鬆警惕。

Our next question is from Bob Koort of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

Lori, you surprised me a little bit with your commentary about how much better your cost position is in Clear Lake than in Nanjing. Can you talk about how much it's compressed, though? Or maybe what the broader industry cost curve has done over the last 2 or 3 months? Is it substantially flattened? Or maybe characterize some of that for us?

Lori，你說清湖的成本狀況比南京好得多，這讓我有點驚訝。能談談成本壓縮了多少嗎？或者說，過去兩三個月，整個產業的成本曲線有什麼改變？它是否大幅趨於平緩？或是能不能給我們描述一下其中的一些特點？

I would say we haven't seen a big shift in coal pricing so that's really what drives Nanjing. So we wouldn't -- we haven't really seen compression between Clear Lake and Nanjing, the real compression is versus oil base. So like Singapore, where everything is really priced out of bunker fuel. So that's really where we've seen the compression or not as much advantage as we used to have between U.S. natural gas-based and oil based. So Singapore, some of the European producers, for example, they tend to be oil based. That's where we've seen the compression. But again, what we've seen, at least in the low oil environment so far is just we still have kind of a 2x advantage in the Gulf Coast as we do in other locations.

我想說，我們還沒看到煤炭價格大幅波動，這才是南京煤電廠價格上漲的真正原因。所以我們並沒有看到清湖煤電廠和南京煤電廠之間價格的真正壓縮，真正的壓縮是相對於石油基煤電廠而言的。例如新加坡，那裡所有東西的價格都已經超出了船用燃料的價格。所以，我們看到的其實是價格的壓縮，或者說，美國天然氣基煤電廠和石油基煤電廠之間的優勢不像以前那麼明顯了。例如新加坡，以及一些歐洲煤電廠，它們往往以石油基煤電為主。這就是我們看到價格壓縮的地方。但話說回來，至少在低油價環境下，我們看到的是，我們在墨西哥灣沿岸仍然擁有比其他地區兩倍的優勢。

Got it. And then I guess China's economy is directed in a different way or managed in a different way, but it seems like that recovery is in the manufacturing sector, at least it started pretty aggressively. How would you anticipate any cues from China informing what might happen in the western markets for you as we go through the second and the third quarter?

明白了。我想中國經濟的導向或管理方式可能有所不同，但看起來復甦主要集中在製造業，至少起步相當強勁。您認為在第二季和第三季度，中國經濟會為西方市場帶來哪些影響？

Yes. So I think what we need to watch for in China -- well, a couple of things. So I mean, you're right, people are up and starting to run again in China. We see some China internal demand recovering. I would say 2, watch out and maybe the reason we're a little bit more pessimistic on AC at this point than others is, we are starting to see inventory build in China. So people are running but there's not a lot of exports yet from China. And so we are starting to see some buildup there. And so I think until you see more of the Western Hemisphere start to recover and you see consumer confidence come back, maybe some of the stimulus packages, especially for auto, that are coming on, that's really going to drive the demand around the world, allow China to start exporting again. I think that's what we need to wait and see. And as of right now, we really haven't seen a resumption yet of China exports. Again, not a big impact on us directly but a big impact on some of our customers around the globe.

是的。所以我認為我們需要關注中國的情況——嗯，有幾件事。我的意思是，你說得對，中國經濟已經開始復甦。我們看到中國的一些內部需求正在復甦。我想說，第二點，需要注意。我們目前對空調產業比其他產業更悲觀的原因，可能是我們開始看到中國庫存增加。所以人們開始生產，但中國的出口量還不大。所以我們開始看到一些庫存正在增加。所以我認為，在西半球更多地區開始復甦，消費者信心回升之前，也許一些即將出台的刺激計劃，尤其是汽車刺激計劃，會真正推動全球需求，讓中國重新開始出口。我認為我們需要拭目以待。截至目前，我們還沒有看到中國出口恢復。再說一次，這不會對我們造成直接重大影響，但會對我們在全球的一些客戶造成重大影響。

The next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. I can hear you, Jeff.

是的。我能聽到你的聲音，傑夫。

Yes.

是的。

With oil prices coming down, some of your competitors probably have a lower cost structure than they did before. Does that lead to a weaker supply-demand balance in acetic or VAM?

隨著油價下跌，你們一些競爭對手的成本結構可能比以前更低。這是否會導致醋酸或VAM的供需平衡減弱？

Let me talk about again, about China because I think that's generally the swing producer. We saw a lot of China production online in the fourth quarter. We've actually seen some reduction in utilization in the first quarter because of the very low pricing that we're seeing. I think people are choosing to run at lower rates, not necessarily shut down but running at lower rates. So I think the thing is that price is just so low. So especially in China, we're at maybe $300 per metric ton today. We saw that price down in the $260 range early in April. It was at $300 or less in March. That's just not a price where folks can run out of a coal base, and it's not a great price even out of an oil base as compared to natural gas.

我再談談中國，因為我認為中國通常是產量波動較大的國家。我們看到第四季中國有很多產能上線。實際上，由於價格非常低，第一季的產能利用率有所下降。我認為人們選擇降低開工率，不一定是停工，而是開工率降低。所以我認為問題在於價格太低了。尤其是在中國，我們今天的價格大約在每噸300美元左右。 4月初，我們看到價格跌到了260美元左右。 3月的時候，價格甚至在300美元或更低。在這個價格下，煤炭基地的產能根本無法滿足需求，即使是石油基地的產能，與天然氣相比，這個價格也不算太高。

So I think the advantage is there, it's less. I don't think it will impact our Clear Lake, but it is causing some producers to slow down, which is a good thing. And we've actually seen the price start creeping up again in the last few weeks from where it was. So there seems to be some discipline in the market not to produce into a losing situation. But again, it depends how long this goes on. But right now, I would say coal is the marginal producer, which is China. And we are seeing some discipline in that market. We're seeing prices slowly come back up.

所以我認為優勢還是有的，就是產量少了點。我認為這不會影響我們的Clear Lake，但它確實導致一些生產商放慢了生產速度，這是好事。實際上，我們已經看到價格在過去幾週從之前的水平開始回升。所以，市場似乎有些規矩，不會為了虧損而生產。不過，這也取決於這種情況持續多久。目前，我認為煤炭是邊際產量，也就是中國。我們看到中國市場有一些規則。價格正在緩慢回升。

Yes. Jeff, just to add to that, I think it's important to remember that our view of oil is that we're relatively agnostic as a corporation to higher low oil pricing. And you are going to get some compression in some areas but you're going to get expansion in other areas. I think as Lori just talked about on acetic acid, we don't see a lot of movement in that cost curve. On VAM, you do get some compression but that's offset by some of the gains you get out of Singapore acetic acid.

是的。傑夫，補充一點，我認為重要的是要記住，我們對石油的看法是，作為一家公司，我們對低油價的上漲相對持謹慎態度。在某些領域，成本會有所壓縮，但在其他領域，成本會有所擴張。我認為，正如洛里剛才談到的醋酸業務，我們的成本曲線並沒有太大的波動。 VAM業務確實會受到一些壓縮，但這會被新加坡醋酸業務的部分收益所抵消。

On the Engineered Materials side of the equation, as Lori stated, about 2/3 of the pricing there is pretty sticky. So you hold pricing even as raws come down, but that's partially offset by our dividend out of Ibn Sina. So with those puts and takes, we feel like we can still generate pretty agnostic returns in any environment.

正如Lori所說，工程材料板塊大約三分之二的定價相當固定。所以，即使原物料價格下跌，你也能維持定價，但這部分會被我們從Ibn Sina獲得的股利抵銷。因此，考慮到這些看跌期權和看漲期權，我們覺得在任何環境下都能獲得相當穩定的回報。

Can you talk about why you've deferred your larger capital projects? What the rationale is behind that? And how much operating income or EBITDA do you lose because of the deferral?

您能談談為什麼要延後大型資本項目嗎？背後的原因是什麼？延後專案會為你們帶來多少營業利潤或EBITDA的損失？

Yes. So we've reduced our CapEx projection for this year by about $150 million, could be a bit more. Of that, I'd say about 1/3 of it is associated with the delay of the Clear Lake acetic acid expansion. Again, the reason for doing that is because with these low oil prices, Singapore becomes a much more -- not more attractive than Clear Lake, but attractive enough that we decided it was better to preserve cash in this period of time, not knowing how long and how deep this would be. We can choose to start that project up at any time once we see -- start to see recovery. But for right now, we've just said 18 months.

是的。所以我們將今年的資本支出預測下調了約1.5億美元，甚至可能更多。其中，我認為大約三分之一與Clear Lake醋酸擴建工程的延後有關。再次強調，這樣做的原因是，在低油價的背景下，新加坡的吸引力遠大於Clear Lake，但吸引力也足夠大，所以我們決定在這段時間內保留現金，儘管我們不知道這會持續多久，以及會持續多久。一旦我們看到經濟開始復甦，我們可以隨時選擇啟動這個計畫。但就目前而言，我們只說了18個月。

We've also -- for our China localization projects that we were looking at, we've pushed it out a bit because obviously, we have a bit of a demand slowdown for our Engineered Materials, and we see that taking a little while to recover. So we've pushed it out a bit and we've also had some things changed where we now are looking at minimizing costs by using some of our existing footprint, preferably. So that's about another 1/3 of that $150 million. And then we have 1/3 that's kind of everything else, and a lot of that is just project rescoping that occurred naturally. Projects that we said, you know what, to preserve cash, we can just push them out 1 year. So we're really just trying to be cautious, because we don't know how deep and how long this can go, to make sure that we are preserving cash for the organization to maintain a good free cash flow.

我們也——對於我們正在考慮的中國本地化項目，我們已經將其推遲了一段時間，因為顯然，我們對工程材料的需求有所放緩，而且我們認為這需要一段時間才能恢復。所以我們將其推遲了一段時間，並且進行了一些調整，現在我們正考慮利用一些現有資源來最大限度地降低成本，最好是這樣。所以，這大約是1.5億美元中的三分之一。然後，我們還有三分之一，也就是其他所有方面，其中許多只是自然而然發生的專案範圍調整。我們說過，為了保留現金，我們可以將專案推遲一年。所以我們真的只是試圖保持謹慎，因為我們不知道這種情況會持續多久，以及會持續到什麼程度，以確保我們為公司保留現金，從而維持良好的自由現金流。

The next question is from Mike Sison of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Glad to hear everybody is safe and sound. Lori, I just wanted a little bit of clarification. I think you said for 2Q, adjusted EBIT could be down $150 million to $250 million. Was that relative to Q1 or 2Q '19?

很高興聽到大家都平安無事。 Lori，我只是想澄清一下。我記得您說過，第二季調整後的息稅前利潤可能會下降1.5億到2.5億美元。這是相對於2019年第一季還是第二季而言的？

Relative to Q1.

相對於 Q1。

Q1, okay. And then when you think about adjusted EBIT margins for the Acetyl Chain in the mid-teens for 2Q, what is the -- what is more important in getting those margins up? Is it the volume? Is it the pricing? And then if pricing is going to go up, what do you think drives that? Is it more oil going up? Is it more recouping the volume? Just sort of -- just some color on what could get those margins better as the year unfolds.

第一季度，好的。那麼，當您考慮到乙醯基鏈的調整後息稅前利潤率在第二季度中段達到15%左右時，什麼因素對提高這些利潤率更為重要？是產量還是價格？如果價格上漲，您認為是什麼推動了價格上漲？是油價漲嗎？還是產量回升？我只是就如何在未來幾年提高這些利潤率進行了一些分析。

Yes. I think it's -- they're all related, but I think it is more around the pricing. I mean look, the last time we saw the low $300 per metric ton pricing for acetic acid was in 2016. So it's been a long time since we've seen this level of numbers. So I think it really is more about seeing the pricing go up. Now, that really means demand recovery for acetic acid, again, really dependent on China for that. I think that's where we'll see the recovery in the margins. But clearly, as we have demand recovery, we get some volume recovery that helps the prices go up. Again, we're pretty agnostic to what happens to oil in this scenario. We -- that's the beauty of our model, the beauty of having 3 different sources of the acetic acid around the globe that we can pull on depending on what's the best source and the lowest cost source. So I don't see oil price being a big factor for us. But certainly, China demand, China exports, reopening of India and Southeast Asia, these are going to be the big factors that can help drive those margins back up.

是的。我認為——它們都是相關的，但我認為更多的是價格因素。我的意思是，上一次我們看到醋酸價格低至每噸300美元還是在2016年。所以，我們已經很久沒有看到這種程度的數據了。所以我認為這更多的是價格上漲。現在，這其實意味著醋酸需求的復甦，而這又非常依賴中國。我認為利潤率的復甦將發生在中國。但顯然，隨著需求的復甦，產量也會回升，有助於價格上漲。同樣，我們不太清楚在這種情況下油價會發生什麼。這就是我們模型的魅力所在，在全球有三個不同的醋酸來源，我們可以根據哪個來源最好、哪個來源成本最低來選擇。所以，我認為油價對我們來說不是一個重要因素。但可以肯定的是，中國的需求、中國的出口、印度和東南亞的重新開放，這些將是幫助利潤率回升的重要因素。

The next question is from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Good to hear everybody's voice. Sounds like everyone is doing well. Wondering if you could just comment on what you're seeing or what you're thinking about the outlook for demand for VAM and for emulsions in the second quarter and maybe into the third quarter. Just wondering if you're going to have the same amount of flexibility going forward to shift product out of acid into those other 2 materials.

很高興聽到大家的聲音。聽起來大家都過得很好。您能否談談您對第二季甚至第三季VAM和乳液需求前景的看法？您是否能在未來將產品從酸轉向其他兩種材料方面擁有相同的靈活性？

Yes. So we have certainly taken advantage of that flexibility even in the first quarter. I mean if you look in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, we sold 17% less tonnage into China as they dealt with COVID. We moved that and we built -- we sold 27% more tonnage into the Western Hemisphere. We moved 8% more tonnage to VAM and emulsions. We have seen VAM and VAE hold up pretty well. We actually see some impact on that into the second quarter. We see the demand remaining strong for paints and coatings at least so far, especially for exterior paint. Now maybe not as much for interior paints as people aren't wanting to line up at Home Depot and wait to go in. And -- but we are seeing the advantage of that capacity that we've been able to add.

是的。所以，即使在第一季度，我們也確實利用了這種靈活性。我的意思是，如果你看一下第一季和第四季的數據，由於中國正在應對新冠疫情，我們銷往中國的貨量減少了17%。我們轉移了這些業務，並增加了銷往西半球的貨量，增加了27%。我們轉移了8%的VAM和乳液的貨量。我們看到VAM和VAE表現相當不錯。實際上，我們看到了第二季的一些影響。至少到目前為止，我們看到油漆和塗料的需求仍然強勁，尤其是外牆塗料。現在，內牆塗料的需求可能沒有那麼旺盛，因為人們不想在家得寶(Home Depot)排隊等著進店。而且——但我們正在看到新增產能帶來的優勢。

So I think in Q2, yes, we expect certainly some pricing pressure on VAM and VAE and emulsions. And we hope we'll start to see some more seasonal recovery in demand as we see economies starting to reopen but generally, stronger than acetic acid.

所以我認為，在第二季度，我們預計VAM、VAE和乳液肯定會面臨一些價格壓力。隨著各經濟體開始重啟，我們希望需求能夠出現一些季節性復甦，但整體而言，復甦勢頭會強於醋酸。

And then if I could just ask you on Engineered Materials, I appreciate and respect your comments on the ability to hold price in that 2/3 of that business feed. That's certainly what we've seen in the past in lower raw material environments. I'm just asking, with volume expected to be down 30%, 35%, is there no mechanism for customers to come to you and ask for lower prices? Is it purely -- is it fully contracted? Or is it just not something you have to worry about?

然後，如果我可以問您關於工程材料的問題，我很欣賞並尊重您對在2/3的業務中保持價格的能力的評論。這當然是我們過去在原物料價格較低的情況下看到的。我只是問一下，預計交易量將下降30%到35%，難道沒有機制讓客戶來找你們要求降價嗎？這純粹是──完全是契約約定的嗎？還是你們根本不需要擔心這個問題？

I mean of course, people can always ask. Again, if we go back to what we see, about 1/3 of that volume is really sticky and that we're the only person specked in. So those -- they tend to not be price sensitive. They don't have another option. The next 1/3 maybe has a couple of people specked in. We've not seen a lot of movement that way. I mean perhaps we will. As we come out up, we haven't. The 1/3 that tends to be more price-sensitive is more the standard-type grades and those tend to follow raws a bit more anyway. But we have seen some of the sectors continue to be very robust, right? Medical pharma, paints and coatings to a certain extent, packaging from the acetyl side, food and beverage has been robust. So we expect those to continue and not to see a lot of price pressure there.

當然，人們隨時可以問。再說一次，如果我們回顧一下目前的情況，大約三分之一的成交量非常棘手，而且我們是唯一被指定參與的。所以那些——他們往往對價格不敏感。他們沒有其他選擇。接下來的三分之一可能只有幾個人被指定參與。我們目前還沒有看到這方面的大幅波動。我的意思是，也許我們會有。隨著我們逐漸上升，我們還沒有。對價格較敏感的三分之一往往是標準等級的，而且這些等級往往更傾向於原料。但我們已經看到一些行業繼續保持強勁，對吧？醫藥、油漆和塗料（在一定程度上）、乙醯基包裝、食品和飲料一直表現強勁。因此，我們預計這些行業將持續成長，並且不會出現大量的價格壓力。

The next question is from Ghansham Panjabi of Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德公司的 Ghansham Panjabi。

So Lori, just on the EM segment, specific to the first quarter, both volumes and margins were quite resilient considering the late quarter sort of slowdown, globally. Was there any pull forward in demand from 2Q? I mean you mentioned that the team generated high single-digit volume growth in the Western Hemisphere. Just trying to clarify that.

那麼，Lori，就新興市場（EM）部門而言，具體到第一季度，考慮到季度末全球經濟放緩的影響，銷售和利潤率都相當有韌性。第二季度的需求是否有回升？我的意思是，您提到團隊在西半球實現了高個位數的銷售成長。我只是想澄清一下。

No. We really didn't see any pull forward. Auto actually was doing quite well in January and February in the Western Hemisphere. We actually have seen auto up a few percent in both Europe and Asia. And that really helped drive some of the volumes in the first and second quarter. Obviously, consumer goods were down in the first quarter but generally, January, February, even the first part of March were pretty good, where the Western hemisphere was able to offset some of the decline that we saw out of Asia. And even the Asia decline during that period was fairly moderate. Now obviously, that all changed kind of the second half of March. And that's why we're projecting the 25% to 30% down for EM in the second quarter. But I really didn't see much volume pull forward, yes.

沒有。我們確實沒有看到任何提前的跡象。西半球1月和2月的汽車銷售量其實表現相當不錯。我們實際上看到歐洲和亞洲的汽車銷售都成長了幾個百分點。這確實推動了第一季和第二季的部分銷售成長。顯然，第一季消費品銷量有所下降，但總體而言，1月、2月，甚至3月上旬的銷量都相當不錯，西半球的銷量抵消了亞洲的部分下滑。即使是亞洲的銷量在這段期間的下滑也相當溫和。顯然，這一切在3月下半月有所改變。這就是為什麼我們預測第二季新興市場銷售將下降25%到30%。但我確實沒有看到銷量大幅提前，是的。

Okay. And just more broadly, I mean, you have obviously given us an assumption for each of the segments from a volume standpoint for 2Q. Can you give us a sense as to what you're embedding in terms of how June kind of plays out? I mean clearly, most of the world is on lockdown for at least, let's say, half the quarter, but how are you thinking about the back part of the quarter and kind of the exit run rate into the third quarter?

好的。更廣泛地說，您顯然已經從第二季的銷售角度為我們提供了每個細分市場的假設。您能否就6月的走勢進行一些分析？顯然，世界上大多數地區至少在本季的一半時間處於封鎖狀態，但您如何看待本季後半段的疫情以及第三季的退出率？

Yes. Look, we're really -- we just looked at the second quarter as a whole. We're really assuming we don't see much recovery even through June. And if we look at auto for example, China autos restarted but it's a bit slow. Europe is kind of starting this week but a pretty low rate. VW, for example, in the ID.3, one of their platforms that we have a lot of content in, is making 50 cars a day versus what they typically make 150 cars a day. The U.S., the autos are just now starting to announce they're going to restart originally, some May 4, some May 11 most of big plants not until May 18. So we really don't see them coming up closer to full rates until late June or even early July. So that's the assumption that we baked in. Obviously, if they get started sooner, that's good.

是的。你看，我們真的——我們只是觀察了整個第二季。我們真的假設即使到了6月也不會看到太多復甦。以汽車產業為例，中國汽車產業已經重啟，但速度有點慢。歐洲汽車業本周也開始恢復生產，但速度相當緩慢。例如，大眾汽車的ID.3（我們擁有大量數據的平台之一）每天生產50輛汽車，而他們通常每天生產150輛。美國汽車廠現在才開始宣布重啟計劃，有些會在5月4日，有些會在5月11日，大多數大型工廠要到5月18日才會重新啟動。所以我們真的預計它們要到6月底甚至7月初才能接近滿載生產。這是我們預先設定的假設。顯然，如果他們能早點恢復生產，那就更好了。

The next question is from Matthew DeYoe of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

So if we look back at 2015 and 2016, the Acetyl Chain business generated about $600 million in annual EBITDA. Perhaps directionally, you're pointing there in 2Q, but you have some outages and whatnot. So why or why not is it possible that the company kind of returns in that EBITDA in that segment? Yes. Well, I'll start there.

回顧2015年及2016年，乙醯基鏈業務的年度EBITDA約為6億美元。或許您指的是第二季度，但當時確實有一些生產中斷之類的情況。那麼，為什麼公司在該業務領域能夠實現EBITDA的回升呢？是的。好吧，我就從這裡開始說。

Yes. Look, we typically assume -- we think our acetyls business is kind of a base level of earnings in a normal environment between $180 million and $200 million. So if you look at our earnings in first quarter, just call it, $140 million for easy math, we had about -- we had $15 million in there for the -- that we didn't have for the fairway turnaround. There was $15 million to $20 million of COVID impact. And then first quarter, typically, we see $10 million to $15 million of seasonality. So that gets us in that $180 million to $190 million range that we would expect to see from acetyls. So I think what we've shown is versus even '16, '17, we have fundamentally shifted the acetyls base level of earnings, again, kind of up to that $180 million to $190 million. But with COVID, with the turnaround load in the first quarter, we saw a slightly lower number in the first quarter.

是的。我們通常認為－我們認為在正常環境下，乙醯基業務的獲利基本上在1.8億到2億美元之間。所以，如果你看一下我們第一季的獲利，簡單算一下，就1.4億美元吧，我們當時大約有1500萬美元用於球道扭轉，而這筆錢並沒有用於扭轉球道。新冠疫情的影響有1500萬到2000萬美元。通常情況下，第一季的季節性影響在1000萬到1500萬美元之間。這樣一來，乙醯基業務的獲利就達到了我們預期的1.8億到1.9億美元。所以我認為，與2016年和2017年相比，我們已經從根本上改變了乙醯基業務的獲利基本水平，再次上升到1.8億到1.9億美元。但由於新冠疫情的影響，以及第一季的扭轉負荷，我們看到第一季的獲利略有下降。

Yes, Matthew, I think it's important to remember a lot of the steps that we've taken over time in the acetyl business to get us to that higher level of earnings, reducing the fixed cost footprint, consolidating manufacturing at our large integrated facilities, continuing to lower the S&A cost structure in the business, and then further going downstream. In the past, we used to sell about 60% of our acetic acid as acetic acid. And now we only sell closer to 40%, and we moved that downstream into VAM emulsions and now into redispersible powders through the Elotex acquisition. So those very purposeful steps taken over time have led to that higher level of earnings in normalized environments.

是的，馬修，我認為重要的是要記住我們在乙醯業務中多年來採取的許多措施，這些措施使我們的盈利水平更高，包括減少固定成本足跡、整合我們大型一體化工廠的生產、持續降低業務中的銷售與行政成本結構，以及進一步向下游業務發展。過去，我們約有60%的乙酸以乙酸的形式出售。現在，我們只銷售接近40%，並且我們將其轉移到下游的VAM乳液，現在透過收購Elotex轉向可再分散性粉末。因此，這些多年來採取的非常有針對性的措施，使我們在正常化的環境下實現了更高的獲利水準。

Okay. And then price in EM was down like 5% year-over-year in 1Q. I would imagine it's probably going to be a little bit worse than that in 2Q. To some extent, I guess, it's not surprising, given the moves we've seen in oil. But if I look back to the last time, crude really collapsed in '15, '16, we never saw price kind of eclipse the minus 4 number. Is this because prices is sticky in some of the newly acquired businesses? And you talked a little bit about that margin level and I would imagine things move down in 2Q. But that mid-30s, is that what you'd consider normal from here?

好的。然後，新興市場的價格在第一季同比下降了5%。我估計第二季的情況可能會更糟一些。考慮到我們之前看到的油價走勢，我想這在某種程度上並不令人意外。但如果回顧上次，原油價格在2015年和2016年大幅下跌，我們從未見過價格超過-4%的水平。這是因為一些新收購的業務價格堅挺嗎？您剛才談到了利潤率水平，我估計第二季度的情況會有所下降。但是，您認為35%左右的利潤率從現在開始是正常的嗎？

Yes. I think there's two things there. So we did have the raw material pass-through on that kind of 1/3 of the business that is more directly tied to raws. I think that's similar to what you would have seen in '16. There was also an element, Q1 '19 was really an exceptional EM quarter, and there's some timing elements there around contracts for medical and pharma, some high-margin businesses that showed up in Q1, which is different than Q1 '20, which is -- so Q1 '19, we had some big contracts that showed up in the books. Q1 '20 is, I would say, more normal. So there is that variation there. I mean we would expect, as raws continues to be low and as we see volumes come off, some further impact to margins for Engineered Materials and volumes, like I spoke about earlier. But I don't think the Q1 '19 to Q1 '20 change that you're seeing is representative because there was some uniqueness in Q1 '19.

是的。我認為有兩點。首先，我們確實有三分之一的業務與原料直接相關，而這部分業務確實有原料轉嫁。我認為這與2016年的情況類似。其次，2019年第一季是新興市場表現非常出色的季度，醫療和製藥合約有一些時間因素，一些高利潤業務在第一季出現，這與2020年第一季有所不同。 2019年第一季度，我們有一些大合約記錄在帳簿上。而2020年第一季度，我想說，情況比較正常。所以，存在這種差異。我的意思是，我們預計，隨著原材料價格持續走低，以及產量下降，工程材料的利潤率和產量將進一步受到影響，就像我之前提到的那樣。但我不認為您所看到的 2019 年第一季至 2020 年第一季的變化具有代表性，因為 2019 年第一季存在一些獨特性。

The next question is from John Roberts of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

And congratulations, Lori on assuming the Chairperson role. The smokers seem to be more susceptible to the more severe COVID-19 symptoms. You're guiding for stable cig tow for the rest of this year but do you think this, over the next 12, 24, 48 months will accelerate the decline in cig tow over time?

恭喜 Lori 就任主席。吸菸者似乎更容易出現更嚴重的 COVID-19 症狀。您預計今年剩餘時間的香菸拖曳量將保持穩定，但您認為在接下來的 12、24 或 48 個月裡，這會加速香菸拖曳量的下降嗎？

It's a good question and one we've asked ourselves. But I have to say, tow has proven to be probably our most resilient sector. People who smoke tend to do it no matter what. And if anything, maybe they do it more when they're home. So just a bit anecdotally, in January and February, when this was really hitting China, we actually saw tow production -- cigarette production, sorry, up 4% in China and sales in China actually went up by 1%, which doesn't sound -- versus 2019, which doesn't sound like a lot, but in a business where we expect a couple of percent decline per year, that was certainly a reversal of the trend. We haven't seen similar numbers yet for Europe and for the Americas. So we have to wait and see. But as of right now, at least in our conversations with the cigarette producers and others, they are not seeing a big change in demand profile.

這是一個很好的問題，我們也問過自己這個問題。但我不得不說，事實證明，菸草業可能是我們最具韌性的產業。吸煙者無論如何都會吸煙。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是他們在家的時候可能抽更多。順便提一下，在1月和2月，當疫情真正襲擊中國的時候，我們實際上看到了煙草產量——抱歉，中國的捲菸產量增長了4%，銷量實際上增長了1%，這聽起來似乎並不多——與2019年相比，這聽起來並不多，但對於一個我們預計每年都會下降幾個百分點的行業來說，這無疑是一種趨勢的逆轉。我們還沒有在歐洲和美洲看到類似的數據。所以我們只能拭目以待。但截至目前，至少在我們與捲菸生產商和其他機構的溝通中，他們並沒有看到需求狀況有重大變化。

Okay. And then in Engineered Materials, you noted some challenges in getting new applications qualified with the social distancing and a lot of your customers having employees working from home. Do you think you have that solved or will have it solved over the next couple of months? Or will it be constraining at any -- in any way or because demand is so weak, it's just not going to be on a constraining part of the supply chain or the value-added?

好的。然後，在工程材料領域，您提到了由於社交距離規定以及許多客戶的員工在家辦公，新應用的認證面臨一些挑戰。您認為這個問題已經解決了嗎？或者在接下來的幾個月裡會解決嗎？或者它會以任何方式限制我們，還是因為需求非常疲軟，它不會成為供應鏈或增值環節的限制因素？

Yes. I mean look, it's a great question. And certainly, with COVID, we have found many new ways of working. I would say our employees or even our sales people, everyone, continue to be highly productive and effective at home. Interestingly enough in EM, while we have had some issues getting new projects qualified, we have been able to continue to progress many other projects. So a lot of our customers have lab staff working, they're doing it. In some cases, our lab group, our technology and innovation group has actually been working with some of the customers to qualify the materials on our lab equipment. And so sometimes we're -- we've actually taken over and done some of the testing for them at our facilities for those customers who couldn't use their. So our folks have been really creative to keep some stuff going.

是的。我的意思是，你看，這是一個很好的問題。當然，在新冠疫情期間，我們找到了許多新的工作方式。我想說，我們的員工，甚至銷售人員，所有人，都繼續在家有效率地工作。有趣的是，在電子製造領域，雖然我們在新專案認證方面遇到了一些問題，但我們仍然能夠繼續推動許多其他專案。所以，我們的許多客戶都有實驗室工作人員在工作，他們正在這樣做。在某些情況下，我們的實驗室團隊，我們的技術和創新團隊實際上一直在與一些客戶合作，在我們實驗室設備上對材料進行認證。所以有時，我們——我們實際上已經接管了那些無法使用實驗室設備的客戶，並在我們自己的設施中為他們做了一些測試。所以我們的員工非常有創造力，讓一些工作得以繼續進行。

Similarly, we've continued to provide great customer service. I want to share with you an example we had. We actually had a customer in Germany who had a molding issue, and our technologists were able to get on the phone via iPad and basically troubleshoot the problem using iPad video with the customer. So our folks have been really creative. While we certainly have -- we still closed the number of projects in the first quarter we expected to, we aim to do the same in the second quarter. We're just having to be really creative and really flexible in how we work and what work we do for our customers to make it happen.

同樣，我們也持續提供卓越的客戶服務。我想和大家分享一個例子。我們曾經有一位德國客戶遇到了模具問題，我們的技術人員能夠透過iPad接聽電話，並透過iPad視訊與客戶一起解決問題。所以，我們的員工真的非常有創造力。雖然我們在第一季完成了預期的項目數量，但我們的目標是在第二季也取得相同的成績。為了實現這一目標，我們必須在工作方式和為客戶所做的工作上真正發揮創造力和靈活性。

The next question is from John McNulty of BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

With regard to the acetic acid markets in China specifically, have you seen any permanent closures? And I guess how long would we have to see this recessionary environment drag on before we might actually start to see some of maybe the more marginal capacity just get permanently shut down? What are your thoughts on that?

具體來說，關於中國的醋酸市場，您是否看到永久性關閉的情況？我想，這種經濟衰退環境還要持續多久，我們才有可能真正開始看到一些邊緣產能被永久關閉？您對此有何看法？

So I would say to date, we have not seen any permanent closures. And part of the reason for that is, I think a lot of the acetic acid capacity in China is tied to downstream uses at the same company. So they're part of the value chain for other companies, not necessarily VAM, VAE, but maybe going into plastic bottles or this sort of thing. So what we've seen, though, is we have seen people slowing down capacity. So only matching their capacity to what they internally consume. I think it will take a bit longer at these kind of prices before we'd see people permanently shut down, but we have definitely seen people take go -- run at lower rates, which has helped. We were really low in terms of China utilization in the first quarter. Those numbers are still low, just below 70%, but slowly coming back up as people cut back on runway rates to more match their downstream -- internal downstream consumption. So I don't know how long it's going to be, but I think it will be longer before we'd see any permanent shutdown of spare capacity in China.

所以我想說，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何永久關閉的工廠。部分原因是，我認為中國許多醋酸產能都與同一家公司的下游用途有關。因此，它們是其他公司價值鏈的一部分，不一定是用於生產醋酸乙烯酯（VAM）或醋酸乙烯酯（VAE），也可能用於生產塑膠瓶或類似產品。然而，我們看到的是，一些工廠正在降低產能，使其產能僅與內部消費相符。我認為，在目前的價位下，永久關閉工廠還需要一段時間，但我們確實看到一些工廠以較低的開工率開工，這有幫助。第一季度，中國的產能利用率非常低。目前這個數字仍然很低，略低於70%，但隨著一些工廠降低開工率以更好地匹配下游——內部下游消費——產能正在緩慢回升。所以，我不知道這需要多長時間，但我認為中國永久關閉閒置產能還需要更長時間。

Yes. And, John, we're focused on what we can do to control things. So we're controlling our own operating rates. We're focused on productivity, as Lori talked about. We're focused on what we can do from near-term cost reduction actions. So those items that we have control over ourselves is where our focus needs to be. So that as we see the changes in demand pivot in the coming months, we're well positioned to take advantage of that.

是的。約翰，我們專注於我們能做的控制。也就是說，我們正在控制自己的營運率。正如洛里所說，我們專注於生產力。我們專注於我們能從短期成本削減行動中取得的成果。所以，我們需要把重點放在那些我們能夠控制的事情上。這樣，當我們在未來幾個月看到需求樞紐的變化時，我們就能很好地利用這些變化。

Great. And then just, I guess, with regard to the Engineered Materials platform, I guess, the magnitude of the sales drop seems a little bit on the higher end, I guess, than what we were thinking, especially considering you do serve some pretty defensive markets as well, like on the health care side. So I guess can you give us -- in terms of how you're thinking about the buckets of your cyclical portion of that business and the maybe defensive side, what you're thinking in terms of the volumes for those?

太好了。關於工程材料平台，我想銷售額下降的幅度似乎比我們預想的要高一些，尤其是考慮到你們也服務於一些防禦性很強的市場，例如醫療保健領域。所以，您能否談談您對該業務中周期性部分和防禦性部分的理解，以及您對這些部分的銷售有何看法？

Yes. I mean on the kind of resilience side, I mean, obviously, I talked about tow, that's 15% of our revenue. And then we have medical pharma, food beverage, even 5G, packaging, that's kind of another 10% to 15% of our revenue. But some of our big users like for the entire company, auto is about 15%. Until people start up, although they're sticky businesses, and they will come back and order from us, they're just not taking volume. So that's really what's built into that as well as consumer electronics. And people are just not buying big durable consumer goods right now. They're worried about jobs, they can't get out, all these kinds of things. So I would say it's not so much that we see people shifting away from our Engineered Materials. It's just they're not running, so they're not ordering.

是的。說到韌性方面，我之前提到過拖車業務，這占我們收入的15%。此外，我們還有醫藥、食品飲料，甚至5G包裝業務，這大約占我們收入的10%到15%。但我們的一些大用戶，像是整個公司，汽車業務大約佔15%。在新業務啟動之前，雖然這些業務是長期穩定的，他們會回來向我們訂購，但他們只是沒有大量採購。這就是造成這種情況的原因，消費性電子產品也是如此。現在人們根本不購買大型耐用消費品。他們擔心就業問題，擔心無法撤離，等等。所以，我想說，與其說是我們看到人們遠離我們的工程材料業務，不如說是他們停產了，所以沒有訂購。

If you look at even in Q1, we saw -- we lost about $10 million in volume in orders just in March due to cancellations, about 50% in Asia and 50% in other places. And in Q2, automotive, the big decline drop. I mean April was 50% lower in terms of automotive demand from -- for us than it was in 2019. And in the Americas, that was 80% lower. So it's -- these are sticky businesses that if they're not running, they're not ordering. Now in non-auto, we're nearly flat with 2019. So again, it's just that balance of those highly resilient, those that have kept running and had high demand. And those that haven't been as resilient like auto, where we've just seen the demand basically go to 0 for a period of time.

如果你看一下第一季度，你會發現——由於訂單取消，光是在三月份，我們就損失了大約1000萬美元的訂單，其中亞洲約佔50%，其他地區也佔50%。而在第二季度，汽車業的訂單大幅下降。我的意思是，四月我們的汽車需求比2019年下降了50%。而在美洲，這數字下降了80%。所以，這些都是高黏性的業務，如果它們停產，就不會有訂單。現在，在非汽車領域，我們的訂單幾乎與2019年持平。所以，這只是在那些具有高韌性、一直在運作且需求旺盛的業務與那些韌性較弱的業務（例如汽車）之間取得平衡。我們看到，汽車產業的需求在一段時間內基本上降至0。

The next question is from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

With regard to your CapEx program, I think you indicated you're deferring capacity expansions for methanol and acetyls by about 18 months. Do you still plan to reduce capacity in Asia? And if so, would the acetyl capacity reduction there be concurrent with the new time line?

關於你們的資本支出計劃，我記得你們曾表示將甲醇和乙醯基的產能擴張推遲約18個月。你們是否仍計劃削減亞洲的產能？如果是的話，那裡乙醯基產能的削減會與新的時間表同步嗎？

Yes. So our plan all along has been -- it was really we justified the product -- the project on productivity. So our plan would be to reduce capacity in Asia in that same time frame, so in that '20 to mid-2023 time frame. Again, it could be a shutdown of the facility or it could just simply be a reduction in facility. And that's a decision we'll make some time later once we see kind of how raw material dynamics and demand even out over the next few years.

是的。我們一直以來的計劃都是——實際上是我們證明了產品的合理性——基於生產力的項目。所以我們的計畫是在同一時間段內，也就是2020年到2023年中期，減少亞洲的產能。同樣，這可能是關閉工廠，也可能只是簡單地減少工廠數量。至於這個決定，我們會在觀察未來幾年原料動態和需求如何平衡後再做決定。

Okay. And then on Page 9 of your prepared remarks released last night, I just had a clarifying question maybe. You're talking about the free cash flow improvement there of $300 million to $400 million. And I think it's equated to a 40% decline in adjusted EBIT for Acetyl Chain and EM. I guess my clarification is, is that 40%, in fact, your forecast? Or are you just sizing the magnitude of the free cash flow improvement there?

好的。然後，關於您昨晚發布的準備好的發言稿第9頁，我可能想澄清一下。您說的自由現金流改善是3億到4億美元。我認為這相當於乙醯鍊和EM部門調整後的息稅前利潤下降了40%。我想澄清一下，您預測的40%是真的嗎？還是您只是在估算自由現金流改善的幅度？

Yes. Kevin, we're just sizing it for Q2 through Q4. That's really what that point was about.

是的。凱文，我們只是在為第二季到第四季進行規模估算。這才是重點所在。

Very good. And if I may, I want to sneak in another one for you, Scott. There's a reference to, I think, a tax relief provision that's expected to benefit you by $40 million to $50 million. Can you just talk a little bit about that and when you would expect that cash in the door?

非常好。史考特，如果可以的話，我想偷偷地再跟您提一個問題。我記得提到了一項稅收減免條款，預計能為您帶來4000萬到5000萬美元的收益。能簡單談談這項條款嗎？您預計這筆錢什麼時候會到帳？

Yes. This is mostly just timing, Kevin, and it's -- a lot of the stimulus packages that have been passed around the world. Actually, the lesser of that number is the U.S. We have a pretty substantial impact from German payroll tax deferrals. So it's really just deferment to 2021 or 2022 on payroll taxes.

是的。凱文，這主要只是時間問題，而且——世界各地已經通過了許多刺激計劃。實際上，美國的影響較小。德國工資稅延期對我們影響很大。所以實際上，薪資稅的繳納時間被延後到2021年或2022年。

The next question is from Alex Yefremov of KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov。

Lori, just to clarify, the EBIT decline sequentially, you mentioned $150 million to $250 million range. Was that for the company overall? Or for EM segment only?

Lori，我想澄清一下，您提到的息稅前利潤環比下降在1.5億至2.5億美元之間。這是針對整個公司嗎？還是僅限於新興市場部門？

No. That's for the company overall.

不，這是針對整個公司而言的。

Understood. And turning to acetyls, just based on benchmark margins, we're estimating that they were quite healthy in March and April, if we look at acetic acid versus methanol or VAM versus ethylene and acetic acid. Is that in fact true when you look at your business? And if so, are you expecting these -- this level of margins that we saw in March and April to persist in the latter parts of second quarter?

明白了。說到乙醯基產品，僅根據基準利潤率，我們估計3月和4月乙醯基產品的利潤表現相當健康，無論是乙酸與甲醇，或是VAM與乙烯和乙酸的比較。從您的業務來看，情況確實如此嗎？如果是這樣，您是否預計3月和4月的利潤水準會在第二季後半段持續下去？

Scott may want to provide some detail as well. But again, if we look at -- we actually saw prices drop very low at the end of March and in early April. And at those kind of prices, margins in Nanjing, where you have methanol coming out of coal, are not that good. Clear Lake, out of gas, still a margin, but significantly compressed from the margins that we've had in the past. So I think we continue to see that challenge with acetyl margins going forward, even in a low methanol environment, again, because price tends to fall a little bit.

斯科特可能也想提供一些細節。但話說回來，如果我們看一下——我們實際上看到價格在3月底和4月初跌得很低。在那樣的價格下，南京的甲醇工廠利潤率並不高，因為那裡的甲醇是用煤製的。清水湖的甲醇工廠雖然仍有利潤，但與我們過去的利潤率相比已經大幅壓縮。所以我認為，即使在低甲醇環境下，乙醯基甲醇的利潤率在未來仍將面臨挑戰，因為價格往往會略微下降。

Yes. I think we did see a lot of compression in the first quarter, as Lori stated, Aleksey. And in the last week, we've seen a slight bit of expansion, but we saw these periods and pockets at various points in the first quarter as well. So until we see, I think, more robust exports moving out of China and demand improving in other parts of the world, I don't think you're going to see a big change in that dynamic.

是的。正如Lori和Aleksey所說，我認為我們在第一季確實看到了很大的收縮。上週，我們看到了輕微的擴張，但我們在第一季的不同時間點也看到了這些階段性或局部性的成長。所以，我認為，除非我們看到中國出口更加強勁，世界其他地區的需求改善，否則這種動態不會有重大變化。

If I just may clarify, you do expect your acetyls margins to decline sequentially?

如果我可以澄清的話，您是否預計乙醯利潤率會連續下降？

I think we expect to see things relatively flat right now, Aleksey. At least that's what we're baking in, given that demand landscape that we talked about. And I think it's important, we're more or less on the floor here for methanol in China, given where the coal producers' cost structure is and given where methanol prices are at. So we may see things move a little bit in the upstream feedstock landscape. But material movements up or down, given the inventory levels and given the cost structure, we just don't see things moving a lot.

阿列克謝，我認為我們預計目前的情況會相對穩定。至少考慮到我們之前談到的需求格局，我們目前的情況是這樣的。而且我認為重要的是，考慮到煤炭生產商的成本結構以及甲醇的價格，我們在中國甲醇市場的行情基本上處於底部。因此，我們可能會看到上游原料市場略有波動。但考慮到庫存水準和成本結構，無論原物料價格上漲或下跌，我們預期市場不會出現太大波動。

The next question is from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research.

下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

As I parse through the various forecasts and understanding this isn't an exact science, it's -- and where you think the coronavirus impact is, I mean, obviously, a very significant impact here in 2Q. But as I look at the numbers, is it fair to say that as things stand today, you think the impact from coronavirus, if we were to say parse up 100% for the balance of the year, it would be like 50% impact in Q2, I don't know, 30% Q3 and 20% Q4? How are you currently thinking about the pace of the impact for the balance of the year?

我分析了各種預測，並意識到這並非一門精確的科學，您認為新冠病毒的影響在哪裡？我的意思是，顯然，它在第二季的影響非常顯著。但是，當我查看這些數字時，是否可以這樣說：就目前的情況而言，如果將今年餘下時間的疫情影響按 100% 來計算，那麼第二季度的影響大概是 50%，第三季度是 30%，第四季度是 20%？您目前如何看待疫情對今年餘下時間的影響速度？

Yes. Look, we've done a lot of scenario planning. And again, we don't expect a V-shape recovery, so we do expect some continued impact. We've looked at a U-shape recovery, which we'll start to see some recovery in December. We've looked at L-shape, which has it going down into 2021. I think the answer is, we don't know. Even with things opening up, we have yet to see a couple of things. When does the Western Hemisphere automakers return to full production. When will we see enough relaxing of social distancing in the U.S. and Europe for people to go back to painting. And then as well as allow for construction to go back to seasonally normalized levels. And then as I said earlier, when do we see that improvement in China export because that's -- we're not seeing that yet. So even though China is running, we're not seeing enough demand outside of China to really resume the pace of China export.

是的。你看，我們已經做了很多情境規劃。再說一次，我們預計不會出現V型復甦，所以我們預計會有一些持續的影響。我們之前預測過U型復甦，也就是12月開始出現一些復甦。我們也預測過L型復甦，也就是復甦將持續到2021年。我認為答案是，我們不知道。即使情況有所好轉，我們仍然有一些事情需要觀察。西半球的汽車製造商何時才能恢復全面生產？美國和歐洲的社交隔離措施何時才能充分放鬆，讓人們重新開始噴漆工作？以及建築業何時才能恢復到季節性正常化水準？然後，正如我之前所說，我們何時才能看到中國出口的改善，因為——我們還沒有看到這一點。所以，即使中國經濟正在復甦，我們也沒有看到中國以外的足夠需求來真正恢復中國出口的步伐。

So I think there's still a lot unknown, a lot related to consumer confidence. Stimulus packages can help. We're waiting to see how that goes. But I don't think we can really predict accurately at this point what we will see in third and fourth quarter.

所以我認為還有很多未知數，很多都跟消費者信心有關。刺激計劃可能會有所幫助。我們正在觀望進展。但我認為目前我們無法準確預測第三季和第四季的情況。

Got you. But I was looking at the comment from Scott about the acetyls and EM being off 40% for the balance of the year. And so it just seemed to me that it was a bit more front-end loaded in terms of the impact for the second quarter and perhaps, in terms of a year-over-year negative impact, it would be lessened for the balance of the year. But at this point, do you think it's maybe a little bit too premature to offer that?

明白了。不過，我讀了史考特的評論，說乙醯基和乳酸乙烯酯（EM）今年餘下時間的銷量下降了40%。所以，在我看來，就第二季的影響而言，這似乎有點前期效應，而就同比負面影響而言，今年餘下時間的銷量或許會有所減少。但目前來看，您是否認為現在就透露這個消息還為時過早？

Yes. That 40% was really illustrative of what that magnitude of cash flow reduction would equate to. So that's how I'd read that.

是的。 40% 確實說明了現金流減少的幅度。所以我是這樣理解的。

The next question is from Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering & Holt (sic) [Tudor, Pickering, Holt].

下一個問題來自 Tudor, Pickering & Holt（原文如此）[Tudor, Pickering, Holt] 的 Matthew Blair。

Glad to hear everyone is safe. I wanted to touch on that 5% volume gain in acetyls, which I think occurred despite some turnarounds. Would you say that was just normal quarter-to-quarter volatility? Or do you have a strategy to try to take share in this weak market and offset some of the price declines?

很高興聽到大家都平安無事。我想談談乙醯基產品銷量成長5%的問題，我認為儘管經歷了一些轉機，但銷量仍然保持成長。您認為這只是正常的季度波動嗎？或者，您是否有策略試圖在這個疲軟的市場中搶佔市場份額，並抵消部分價格下跌的影響？

Yes. So we had the volume gain from fourth quarter. Remember, in fourth quarter, we had the issue at our Clear Lake plant and it was down. And so we had more volume available in Clear Lake obviously, in Q1 than we did in Q4. So that volume uptick really reflects the additional production in Clear Lake offset slightly by the COVID impact in Asia.

是的。所以我們的產量從第四季開始有所成長。記得，第四季度，我們的Clear Lake工廠出現了問題，產量下降了。所以，我們第一季Clear Lake工廠的產量顯然比第四季多。所以，產量的成長其實反映了Clear Lake工廠的額外產量，但亞洲新冠疫情的影響略有抵銷。

Sounds good. And then any sense on the timing of the $150 million to $250 million working capital benefit that you expect? Would that be mostly in Q2 or kind of spread throughout the year?

聽起來不錯。那麼您預計1.5億至2.5億美元營運資本利得的發放時間是什麼時候呢？主要是在第二季度，還是會分散到全年？

Scott, do you want to answer that?

史考特，你想回答這個問題嗎？

Yes. So I think most -- there's going to be a chunk of that, that is Q2 as we see the more acute demand impact that Lori talked about happening in the current environment, and we will gain working capital here. So we will see that. We do expect with really actions that we're taking, and this is not a new thing for us. We've been heavily working capital actions around accounts receivable, accounts payable over the last several years. And this environment really gives us that opportunity to push hard on the inventory side of the equation also. So there's some sustainable actions that we're taking in addition to just kind of the drop from sales coming off. So we'll gain a lot of working capital in the second quarter, but we do expect some of those actions to yield benefits in the back half also.

是的。所以我認為大部分——其中很大一部分會在第二季度，因為我們看到Lori提到的在當前環境下需求受到更嚴重的影響，而且我們將獲得營運資金。所以我們會看到這一點。我們確實期待我們正在採取的行動，這對我們來說並不是什麼新鮮事。過去幾年，我們一直在圍繞應收帳款和應付帳款大力提升營運資金。這種環境確實給了我們機會，讓我們在庫存方面加大力度。所以，除了銷售額下降之外，我們還在採取一些可持續的措施。因此，我們將在第二季度獲得大量營運資金，但我們確實預計其中一些措施也會在下半年產生效益。

The next question is from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的大衛‧貝格萊特。

Lori and Scott, on the acetyls base earnings, $180 million to $190 million, I know you said you're agnostic to oil price changes. But why isn't there some variability at a $25 oil price versus a $50 oil price for the base level of earnings in that segment?

洛里和斯科特，關於乙醯基產品基礎收益1.8億至1.9億美元，我知道您說過您不受油價變化的影響。但是，為什麼油價25美元和50美元時，乙醯基產品基礎收益沒有改變呢？

Yes. So David, I think what we'd say as a company, we're fairly agnostic. I mean you will see a little bit of an impact in AC, which is probably why my bridge, including seasonality, gets you to the lower end of that $180 million to $200 million. Clearly, you will see some impact in AC. But that said, we see some -- a little bit of offset in EM, where our prices don't typically -- for about 2/3 of our volume, the prices don't track down with raws. And so we get a little bit of expand -- margin expansion in EM that offsets the compression of margins we see in AC.

是的。所以，大衛，我想作為一家公司，我們相當謹慎。我的意思是，你會看到AC（消費品）受到一些影響，這可能是為什麼我的橋接模型（包括季節性因素）會將你的銷售額控制在1.8億到2億美元之間的低端。顯然，AC會受到一些影響。但話雖如此，我們也看到了一些——新興市場（EM）受到的抵消，我們的價格通常不會——大約三分之二的產量，價格與原料價格並不一致。因此，新興市場的利潤率略有上升，抵消了AC利潤率的下降。

Understood. And just in EM, just in the affiliates, what's happening with Ibn Sina, given the low MTBE margins these days?

明白了。那麼，就新興市場（EM）而言，就其附屬公司而言，考慮到目前MTBE利潤率較低，Ibn Sina的情況如何？

Scott, do you want to answer that?

史考特，你想回答這個問題嗎？

Yes. So David, our dividend there is on a 1 quarter lag. So what came through in Q1 is what we saw from Q4. And then likewise, you're stepping through into Q2. So we're going to see most of that impact in the second half of the year that we're seeing, MTBE follows oil. So pricing is coming down and we will get some compression there. On the flip side, in the EM segment, you'll get upside from where we get margin expansion where we have pretty sticky pricing, as we talked about earlier.

是的。 David，我們的股息落後了一個季度。所以第一季的股息和第四季的股息是一樣的。同樣，第二季的股息也會隨之而來。因此，我們將在下半年看到大部分影響，MTBE 的價格將跟隨石油價格的上漲。所以價格正在下降，我們在這方面會受到一些壓縮。另一方面，在新興市場領域，正如我們之前提到的，由於價格相當穩定，利潤率會提高，利潤率也會上升。

The next question is Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.

下一個問題是傑富瑞集團的勞倫斯‧亞歷山大 (Laurence Alexander)。

Do you see any opportunities to -- or do you have any interest in acquiring ups and downs from acetyls assets and then pulling them into your network to further optimize or will give you more degrees of freedom? And secondly, can you remind us where you are on the innovation cycle in acetyl? I mean roughly how many years be before we see significant innovation in OpEx and CapEx on new projects?

您是否看到任何機會——或者您是否有興趣收購乙醯基資產的優缺點，然後將其納入您的網路以進一步優化，或者這將為您帶來更大的自由？其次，您能否提醒我們您處於乙醯基創新周期的哪個階段？我的意思是，大約需要多少年我們才能看到新專案的營運支出和資本支出出現重大創新？

Yes. You broke a little, but let me answer the first one. So I mean clearly, we just completed the acquisition of Elotex, that is adding down to the back end of our Acetyl Chain with redispersible powders. We're really excited to close that deal despite having to do it remotely. I mean it is a fast-growing market. And we think it's a great addition. So we do continue -- I think it's just an example. We do continue to be very interested in continuing to expand our Acetyl Chain where it makes sense to deliver greater shareholder value, which we think Elotex fit that.

是的。您稍微中斷了一下，但讓我先回答第一個問題。我的意思是，我們剛剛完成了對Elotex的收購，這將增強我們乙醯基產品鏈的後端，並提供可再分散性粉末。儘管必須遠端完成，但我們仍然非常高興能夠完成這筆交易。這是一個快速成長的市場。我們認為這是一個很好的補充。所以我們會繼續下去——我認為這只是一個例子。我們仍然非常有興趣繼續擴展我們的乙醯基產品鏈，以創造更大的股東價值，我們認為Elotex符合這項要求。

In terms of innovation, I mean, we continue to be very flexible with our Acetyl Chain. We like the model that we have, which gives us a lot of optionality and gives us a lot of ability to pivot. I gave the examples earlier of the amount of tonnage we can move geographically as well as tonnage downstream. Our teams continue to innovate constantly around VAM and emulsions and offering new products to our customers. So I think we're doing very well there.

在創新方面，我的意思是，我們在乙醯基產品鏈方面繼續保持高度靈活性。我們喜歡現有的模式，它賦予我們很大的自主選擇權，也賦予我們很大的調整能力。我之前舉例說明了我們能夠實現地域性運輸的噸位以及下游產品的噸位。我們的團隊持續圍繞VAM和乳液進行創新，並為客戶提供新產品。所以我認為我們在這方面做得非常好。

The next question is from Jim Sheehan of SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Jim Sheehan。

When we look at natural gas prices in Asia and specifically China, they're moving lower into the region actually of coal prices. I'm wondering how you think that's impacting the competitive dynamics in China. How sustainable might that be? And does that really affect the Acetyl Chain at all?

讓我們來看看亞洲，尤其是中國的天然氣價格，它們的價格實際上正在下降，接近煤炭價格的水平。我想知道您認為這會對中國的競爭態勢產生什麼影響？這種影響的可持續性如何？這真的會影響乙醯基鏈嗎？

Yes. I can't -- I don't really know much about natural gas into Asia these days. So I can't say how sustainable that will be. What I will tell you is acetic acid equipment in China is built around coal to methanol base. It would take an amount of investment in order to convert that to natural gas, the methanol base. So I don't see that happening quickly. I think you would have to have a very sustained period of competitive and low natural gas prices as well as some assurity of continued supply before you saw people willing to make that investment away from coal to natural gas.

是的。我目前對亞洲的天然氣供應不太了解。所以我無法預測這種做法的可持續性。我可以告訴你的是，中國的醋酸設備是以煤製甲醇為基礎建造的。將其轉換為天然氣（甲醇）需要大量投資。所以我認為這不會很快實現。我認為，必須經歷一段非常持續的、競爭激烈的低天然氣價格時期，以及一定的持續供應保證，才會有人願意將投資從煤炭轉向天然氣。

Yes. Jim, natural gas is earmarked for personal consumption. There's very little chemical production based upon natural gas, and we just haven't seen a policy shift in that direction.

是的。吉姆，天然氣是專供個人消費的。目前基於天然氣的化學品生產很少，我們還沒有看到政策朝這個方向轉變。

Okay. And on social distancing, you talked about the impacts that might have on new project development. I'm wondering about -- maybe you could comment on how it's affecting your integration of acquisitions like Elotex.

好的。關於社交距離，您談到了這可能會對新專案開發產生的影響。我想問一下，您能否談談這對您收購的Elotex等公司的整合有何影響？

Yes. Well, social distancing, besides the fact that we have about 2,000 people working from home these days, we still have another 5 -- roughly 6,000 people working in our plants. And so we have learned how to operate with social distancing using personal protective equipment as needed. I think that's gone very well, and we've been very fortunate we've had no cases of COVID-19 transmitted at work. And so I think we can learn to operate in this way. I think it's been good. I think people -- other -- we see the same thing in other industries and socially, people are learning to work this way. But we just need to get consumer confidence back.

是的。嗯，說到保持社交距離，除了我們目前大約有2,000名員工在家工作之外，我們還有大約5,000名員工在工廠工作。所以，我們已經學會如何在保持社交距離的情況下，根據需要使用個人防護裝備進行工作。我認為這項工作進展順利，而且我們非常幸運，沒有出現過任何在工作場所傳播新冠病毒的病例。所以，我認為我們可以學習以這種方式進行工作。我認為這樣做效果很好。我認為人們——其他人——我們在其他行業和社交領域也看到了同樣的情況，人們正在學習這種方式。但我們只需要恢復消費者信心。

That concludes our time for questions today. I would like to turn the call back over to Abe Paul for closing remarks.

今天的提問時間到此結束。我想請阿貝保羅作最後發言。

Thank you, Brock. We thank you for your questions and listening in today. As usual, we are available after the call for further questions you might have. Brock, feel free to close out the call at this time.

謝謝，布洛克。感謝您今天的提問和收聽。像往常一樣，我們會在會議結束後繼續解答您的其他問題。布洛克，現在您可以結束會議了。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。

Thank you.

謝謝。