塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2019 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Chuck Kyrish, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、財務主管和投資者關係副總裁 Chuck Kyrish。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Donna. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Chuck Kyrish, Vice President, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，唐娜。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2019年第四季財報電話會議。我叫 Chuck Kyrish，是投資人關係副總裁。

With me today are Lori Ryerkerk, Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer; and Todd Elliott, Senior Vice President, Acetyl Chain.

今天與我一起的有執行長 Lori Ryerkerk、財務長 Scott Richardson 和 Acetyl Chain 高級副總裁 Todd Elliott。

Celanese Corporation distributed its fourth quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared remarks about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday after market close. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures also on our website.

塞拉尼斯公司透過商業電訊發布了其第四季度收益報告，並在昨天收盤後在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了關於該季度的準備好的評論。提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您也可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as the prepared comments document. Form 8-K reports containing all these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，可在新聞稿末尾以及準備好的評論文件中找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Because we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll now open the line directly to your questions.

由於我們昨天已經發表了準備好的評論，因此我們現在將直接回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Lori, if you could just clarify on the outlook for EM for 2020, the 10% EBIT growth. There was a lot of commentary in your comments about your differentiated volume performance from the innovation. And I just wanted to get a sense of how much volume growth you are expecting in the year? And how much of that will contribute to organic growth towards the 10% target versus the self-help measures that you also discussed?

Lori，您能否澄清一下 2020 年 EM 的前景，即 10% 的息稅前利潤增長。您的評論中有很多關於您與創新之間的差異化銷售表現的評論。我只是想了解一下您預計今年的銷售成長有多少？其中有多少將對實現 10% 目標的有機成長做出貢獻，以及您討論過的自助措施？

Thanks for your question, Vincent. So maybe just to clarify, what we're saying for EM for next year is we are saying 10% EBIT growth, but there will be an offset to that because of the -- some offset to that because of the turnaround load next year in EM, specifically the Bishop POM turnaround. So that 10% EBIT growth really comes from a couple of items: one, we do believe we're at the end of destocking, so we're seeing more normalized order rates; we are also seeing the benefits of the project wins, those from 2019 and moving into the wins for 2020. So project wins from our existing customers, but also new project wins, as we called out in the script from things like electric vehicles and 5G.

謝謝你的提問，文森。因此，也許只是為了澄清一下，我們對明年 EM 的預測是 EBIT 增長 10%，但由於明年 EM 的扭虧為盈負荷，特別是 Bishop POM 扭虧為盈，這一增長將會受到一定抵消。因此，10% 的息稅前利潤成長實際上來自以下幾個因素：第一，我們確實相信我們已處於去庫存階段的尾聲，因此我們看到了更正常化的訂單率；我們也看到了專案勝利帶來的好處，這些好處來自 2019 年，並將持續到 2020 年。因此，我們不僅從現有客戶那裡贏得了項目，而且還贏得了新項目，正如我們在腳本中提到的那樣，來自電動車和 5G 等領域的項目。

Further on the 10% EBIT, we'll see some help from raw materials and specifically, really, the raw materials help that occurred in '19, but we didn't see in '19 because of the length of our supply chain and inventory. So we should start to see some help from raw materials as we move forward.

進一步了解 10% 的息稅前利潤，我們將看到原材料帶來的一些幫助，具體來說，原材料的幫助確實出現在 19 年，但由於我們的供應鏈和庫存長度，我們在 19 年沒有看到這種幫助。因此，隨著我們不斷前進，我們應該開始看到原材料帶來的一些幫助。

And then, of course, additional productivity, which is going to occur in EM and has occurred. For example, the Lebanon shutdown, which happened last year, in 2019. And then this year, we've already announced the shutdown of our compounding facilities in Shelby, which will have [decent] help in 2020.

然後，當然還有額外的生產力，這將在新興市場發生，而且已經發生了。例如，去年（2019年）發生的黎巴嫩停擺事件。今年，我們已經宣布關閉位於謝爾比的複合設施，這將在 2020 年帶來[相當大的]幫助。

And in addition, we have the help from some of our new capacity that's come on. For example, the 4 lines we've started up in China in the second half of last year, which will help with our supply chain cost and being close to our customers in China.

此外，我們也得到了一些新產能的幫助。例如，去年下半年我們在中國啟動了4條生產線，這將有助於降低我們的供應鏈成本並更貼近我們在中國的客戶。

And as a follow-up, if I could just ask you, you mentioned in relation to the Clear Lake shutdown in the fourth quarter that acetic prices didn't respond to that. But you also noted that you were able to not see a volume decline. So I sort of see a tension between those 2 things, and I'm just wondering if -- how you weighted continuing to ship volume versus maybe letting the market tighten up a little bit and seeing improved margins? And just how you thought about that in terms of the overall profitability of the segment?

作為後續問題，如果我可以問您的話，您提到第四季度 Clear Lake 停產時醋酸價格沒有對此做出反應。但您也注意到，您看不到銷量下降。因此，我看到這兩件事之間存在著一種矛盾，我只是想知道——您如何權衡繼續增加出貨量與讓市場稍微收緊並提高利潤率之間的利弊？那麼，從該部門的整體獲利能力來看，您是如何看待這個問題的呢？

Yes, it's the whole thing. So I mean really good work by the acetyl team to offset the impacts of the Clear Lake outage in the fourth quarter. A little counterintuitively, because we had lower pricing, we didn't see as much impact from the shutdown in Clear Lake. You have to remember also, most of our volume goes from the U.S. towards Asia, so we actually weren't shipping as much that way. So that's actually a bit of a help, although it cost more to produce in China, obviously.

是的，全部都是。所以我的意思是乙醯團隊確實做得很好，抵消了第四季度 Clear Lake 停電的影響。有點違反直覺的是，由於我們的定價較低，所以我們沒有看到 Clear Lake 停產帶來太大的影響。您還必須記住，我們的大部分貨物都是從美國運往亞洲，因此我們實際上並沒有以這種方式運送那麼多貨物。所以這實際上是有一點幫助的，儘管在中國生產的成本顯然更高。

So when you put that all together, what we saw is, with the shift downstream to derivatives, moving more into VAM and emulsions, keeping what volume we did have in the Western Hemisphere where the pricing was somewhat better, we were really able to offset the impact of Clear Lake. But we did see it in the pricing. But there, again, the team was also able to offset nearly 50% of the pricing impact on the year, again, due to the move to the Western Hemisphere and due to the moves with derivatization into emulsions, into VAM and VAE.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們看到的是，隨著向下游衍生品的轉移，更多地轉向 VAM 和乳液，保持我們在西半球的產量，因為那裡的定價略好一些，我們確實能夠抵消 Clear Lake 的影響。但我們確實在定價中看到了這一點。但是，該團隊也能夠抵消近 50% 的年度定價影響，這也是由於轉移到西半球以及衍生化成乳液、VAM 和 VAE 的舉措。

Our next question is coming from John Roberts of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Do you have a special strategy review underway, as was speculated in the press? Or do you just have your normal ongoing strategy activities?

正如媒體猜測的那樣，你們是否正在進行一項特別戰略評估？還是您只是進行正常的持續策略活動？

So we've actually gone through a big strategy exercise in the second half of 2019. This is really as it relates to our core businesses. So what we're going to do in the Acetyl Chain, you saw some of that in the emulsions announcement that came out. Obviously, the Elotex acquisition is part of that strategy as well to strengthen and further extend our Acetyl Chain. It is in Engineered Materials, where you saw some of our comments around a move towards Asia localization, for example, which is about getting closer to our customers and shortening our supply chain with our customers.

因此，我們實際上在 2019 年下半年進行了一次重大策略演習。這確實與我們的核心業務相關。因此，我們將在乙醯鏈中做些什麼，您可以在發布的乳液公告中看到其中的一些內容。顯然，收購 Elotex 也是該策略的一部分，旨在加強和進一步擴展我們的乙醯基鏈。例如，在《工程材料》雜誌中，您可以看到我們關於亞洲在地化舉措的一些評論，這是為了更貼近我們的客戶並縮短我們與客戶的供應鏈。

In Acetate Tow, it is about looking for next-generation uses of cellulosic acetate as we see the decline in the tow industry and being able to move flake into other applications. All of those are outcomes of that strategy review, which we undertook in the second half of '19.

在醋酸絲束中，我們正在尋找醋酸纖維素的下一代用途，因為我們看到絲束行業的衰落，並且能夠將薄片轉移到其他應用中。所有這些都是我們在 2019 年下半年進行的策略審查的結果。

So we will be continuing to review that with our Board here in the first half of the year, and anticipate an Investor Day sometime midyear, where we'll be able to share that strategy with you all in more detail.

因此，我們將在今年上半年繼續與董事會一起審查這項策略，並預計在年中某個時候舉行投資者日，屆時我們將能夠與大家更詳細地分享這項策略。

Obviously, that strategy anticipates some bolt-on M&A. Again, you saw that with Elotex. I will also tell you though, the strategy is very focused on self-help, organic investment, organic use of cash, to grow our own networks and our own capability, short of anything that can happen with M&A.

顯然，該策略預計會出現一些附加的併購。您在 Elotex 上又看到了這一點。不過，我還要告訴你，該策略非常注重自助、有機投資、有機使用現金，以發展我們自己的網絡和我們自己的能力，而沒有採取任何可能透過併購實現的措施。

And then secondly, in engineering plastics, how much did lower raw materials help the earnings on either a sequential or year-over-year basis?

其次，在工程塑膠方面，原物料價格下跌對獲利的環比或年比影響有多大？

So really, raw materials, '18 to '19, we didn't see much help in 2019. We expect to see more of that help rolling to 2020. And that just reflects the long nature of the supply chain in Engineered Materials, where it has to be polymerized, then it has to be compounded, then it has to be moved to the customer. So that is a fairly long supply chain. So we actually expect that help to show up more in 2020.

因此，實際上，從 18 年到 19 年，原材料在 2019 年並沒有帶來太大的幫助。我們預計到 2020 年將會有更多的援助。這正是反映了工程材料供應鏈的長性，它必須被聚合，然後必須被複合，然後必須運送給客戶。所以這是一個相當長的供應鏈。因此，我們實際上預計 2020 年將會有更多的幫助。

Our next question is coming from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

If you had to compare your net turnaround costs in 2020 with your net turnaround costs in 2019, what would be the 2020 benefit? Or what's the difference as best as you can tell?

如果您必須將 2020 年的淨週轉成本與 2019 年的淨週轉成本進行比較，那麼 2020 年的收益是多少？或者您能說出最明顯的差異是什麼？

Yes. So in -- the impact from turnarounds in 2020 is a total of $70 million to $80 million, and that's $50 million more than we had in 2019. So it will be -- it's a hurt in 2020 of $50 million, which we will offset through additional productivity and other actions. And -- but that's fully baked into our plan.

是的。因此，2020 年扭虧為盈的影響總計為 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元，比 2019 年增加了 5,000 萬美元。因此，2020 年的損失將是 5,000 萬美元，我們將透過提高生產力和其他行動來彌補。而且——但這已經完全融入我們的計劃中了。

So in your materials, you talk about an aspiration of $11 a share in earnings. To reach $11 a share, you've got to grow your EBITDA by, I don't know, $140 million. Given the current business conditions, if you had to size that $140 million to reach your aspirations, where would it come from?

因此，在您的材料中，您談到了每股收益 11 美元的期望。為了達到每股 11 美元，你必須將 EBITDA 增加，我不知道，1.4 億美元。鑑於當前的商業狀況，如果您必須籌集 1.4 億美元來實現您的願望，那麼這筆錢從哪裡來？

Yes. So let me kind of do that walk. So if we look at that $11 that we've put out there as the challenge we put to the organization, if we start -- I'm just going to do it on earnings per share, because it's easier. If we start with the $9.53, we will see an uplift next year of, just call it, $0.15 to $0.20 because we won't have the Clear Lake incident impact. So that gets us right to the $9.70 range. We add another $0.50 due to share buybacks and cash and other forms of cash deployment, and so that's another $0.50 that gets you to $10.20. We have put in $0.50 of net productivity, so that's also offsetting $0.35 of turnaround.

是的。那麼就讓我來做一下這樣的散步吧。因此，如果我們將投入的 11 美元視為對組織的挑戰，如果我們開始 - 我將只根據每股收益來做這件事，因為這樣更容易。如果我們從 9.53 美元開始，那麼明年我們將看到 0.15 美元到 0.20 美元的上漲，因為我們不會受到 Clear Lake 事件的影響。因此，我們的價格正好處於 9.70 美元的範圍內。由於股票回購、現金和其他形式的現金部署，我們又增加了 0.50 美元，因此又增加了 0.50 美元，使總金額達到 10.20 美元。我們投入了 0.50 美元的淨生產力，因此這也抵消了 0.35 美元的周轉成本。

So to put it in perspective, that's about $125 million of net productivity, which we have to achieve to do that. We're targeting between $200 million and $250 million of gross productivity, so we can offset price increases, energy variations, et cetera, et cetera. But -- so we think that's very achievable, consistent with what we've been able to do in the past. So it's $0.50 of gross -- of net productivity gets us to $10.70. And then we need about $0.30 more of improvement, I will say, in demand. I mean, really, we lost about $0.30 just in fourth quarter of this year. And that was really due to the stronger-than-expected seasonality in Engineered Materials, as well as a really dramatic price drop-off that we saw in acetyl really in December. Both of those occurred in December.

因此，從這個角度來看，這相當於約 1.25 億美元的淨生產力，我們必須實現這一目標。我們的目標是實現 2 億至 2.5 億美元的總生產力，這樣我們就可以抵消價格上漲、能源變化等影響。但是——我們認為這是非常可以實現的，與我們過去所做的一致。因此，總生產力為 0.50 美元，淨生產力為 10.70 美元。然後我想說，我們需要大約 0.30 美元的改進需求。我的意思是，實際上，僅在今年第四季我們就損失了約 0.30 美元。這實際上是由於工程材料的季節性強於預期，以及我們在 12 月看到的乙醯價格大幅下跌。這兩件事都發生在十二月。

So if we just return to kind of the first 3 quarter level of demand and pricing in our businesses, we will recover that $0.30. So that's how we get to the $11. Obviously, we're not going to wait for the market to give that back to us, so we're also trying to identify is there other steps or other productivity measures that we can take to also recover that $0.30 and make sure we get to $11.

因此，如果我們的業務需求和定價恢復到前三個季度的水平，我們就能恢復那 0.30 美元。這就是我們得到 11 美元的方法。顯然，我們不會等待市場將其返還給我們，因此我們還在嘗試確定是否可以採取其他步驟或其他生產力措施來收回這 0.30 美元並確保達到 11 美元。

Our next question is coming from Bob Koort of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯·庫爾特。

Lori, in the prepared remarks, you talked about operating rates in acetic, I guess, declining 7% globally last year. Can you give us some sense regionally how that looks? And then what your expectations are in 2020?

洛里，在準備好的發言中，您談到了醋酸的開工率，我猜去年全球醋酸的開工率下降了 7%。您能從地區角度來跟我們講一下這個情況嗎？那麼，您對 2020 年有什麼期望呢？

Yes. So if we look at, really, utilization for the industry. Full year, year-on-year, '18 to '19, we saw almost a 10% drop in China utilization. Now globally, that was just over 5%, and so most of that was coming from China, and most of that in '18 to '19 was coming from demand.

是的。因此，如果我們真正看一下該行業的利用率。與去年同期相比，從 2018 年到 2019 年，中國的使用率下降了近 10%。現在全球範圍內，這一比例剛剛超過 5%，其中大部分來自中國，而 2018 年至 2019 年的大部分來自需求。

Interestingly, in the fourth quarter, we saw that similar kind of 10% drop, just third quarter to fourth quarter in China, and that was really due to less outages. It wasn't a drop in demand, third quarter to fourth quarter, it was because there were less outages in China in fourth quarter. And that really put us in an oversupply situation, which, again, we also then saw reflected in pricing.

有趣的是，在第四季度，我們看到中國從第三季到第四季也出現了類似的 10% 的下降，而這實際上是由於停電次數減少造成的。這並不是第三季到第四季需求的下降，而是因為第四季中國停電次數減少。這確實使我們陷入了供應過剩的局面，我們也看到這一點反映在定價上。

Globally, fourth quarter was a little under 10%, again, mostly driven by China, a little bit driven in demand in other parts of the globe.

從全球來看，第四季的增幅略低於 10%，同樣主要是受中國推動，同時也受到全球其他地區需求的推動。

And I guess, in the past, maybe to your last Investor Day, you guys had talked about expecting some more takeout in the industry, some more capacity reduction. How has that path been relative to your expectations? And is there some left that you think might come out of the market in acetic?

我想，在過去，也許是在你們的上一次投資者日，你們曾談到預計該行業將出現更多外賣，產能將進一步減少。這條道路與您的預期相比如何？您認為還剩下一些可能從醋酸市場退出的嗎？

Yes, it's a great question, and one, frankly, we think about it a lot. I mean, obviously, if you look at the amount of supply that was in the market in the fourth quarter, you'd have to say, not much capacity has come out in China. However, we believe China remains committed to their environmental targets. And so we still expect some to occur in the future. But we're just not -- we just didn't see that much through 2019.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，坦白說，我們對此思考了很多。我的意思是，顯然，如果你看看第四季市場上的供應量，你會發現，中國的產能並沒有太多。然而，我們相信中國仍然致力於實現其環境目標。因此我們仍然預計未來還會發生一些事情。但我們並沒有——我們在 2019 年沒有看到那麼多。

Todd, do you have any additional comments?

托德，您還有其他評論嗎？

Yes. Bob, it's Todd Elliott, I would add that, that utilization drop over the course of the year, about 7%. That is, to Lori's point, a combination of some demand over the course of the year, more availability throughout the year relative to '18, certainly. But we think the fundamentals are there. If we -- to the point also on EM, similar to acetyls, if we get a kind of normalization of demand patterns as we go into the new year 2020, we think that, that utilization rate will come right back into that mid-80 range on a global basis.

是的。鮑勃，我是托德·埃利奧特，我想補充一點，全年利用率下降了約 7%。也就是說，正如 Lori 所指出的，由於全年的一些需求，相對於 2018 年而言，全年的供應肯定會增加。但我們認為基本面是存在的。如果我們 — — 就 EM 而言，與乙醯基類似，如果我們在進入 2020 年新年時實現需求模式的正常化，我們認為，全球利用率將回到 80% 左右的水平。

So we already saw improvement in pricing to start 2020 in the first quarter off of December levels that already started to move up. We need to see that through over the course of Q1, given the conditions in front of us there.

因此，我們已經看到 2020 年第一季的價格有所改善，而 12 月的物價水準已經開始上漲。考慮到我們面臨的情況，我們需要在第一季完成這一目標。

But one other point that I think is important to mention, while acetic acid remains a key product for us, very, very significant in terms of our position, we're growing our derivatives as well. And you think about our volume profile year-to-year, we were down about 15% on acetic acid volumes in '19 versus '18, but we didn't stop at that point. We actually took about 6% more of our acetic acid and moved that downstream to VAM and to emulsions. So, when you look at the volume profile of VAM and emulsions, they were actually up 8%, '19 to '18. So we have actually intentionally moved our mix regionally, Western Hemisphere as well -- Western Hemisphere-focus as well, and that will allow us to add some resiliency and actually create some more diversity.

但我認為還有一點值得一提，雖然乙酸仍然是我們的關鍵產品，對我們的地位非常非常重要，但我們也在增加我們的衍生物。想想我們每年的產量情況，2019 年我們的醋酸產量與 2018 年相比下降了約 15%，但我們並沒有就此止步。實際上，我們多使用了約 6% 的乙酸，並將其轉移到下游的 VAM 和乳液中。因此，當您查看 VAM 和乳液的體積分佈時，它們實際上從 19 年到 18 年上漲了 8%。因此，我們實際上有意將我們的組合轉移到區域，包括西半球——也關注西半球，這將使我們能夠增加一些彈性並實際上創造更多的多樣性。

And then the step we just announced yesterday with Elotex acquisition as another leg on that chain -- or another link on that chain, which will allow us to take our emulsions business into now the powders product line and provide more resiliency as well going forward.

然後，我們昨天剛剛宣布了收購 Elotex 的舉措，這是該鏈條上的另一個支柱 - 或者說是該鏈條上的另一個環節，這將使我們能夠將乳液業務帶入粉末產品線，並在未來提供更強的彈性。

Got it. Yes, that's laudable. And I also want to thank you, guys. The continued way you present your earnings is very efficient and appreciated, and we're hopeful maybe your peers will start doing the same thing.

知道了。是的，這是值得稱讚的。我也想感謝你們。您持續展示收入的方式非常有效，值得讚賞，我們希望您的同行也能開始做同樣的事情。

Our next question is coming from Duffy Fischer of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Maybe another way to hit the acetic acid. In the last 4 or 5 months, there have been 2 very large announcements for new capacity. So you had ZPCC plus BP and then Reliance. Now I know we've had a lot of announcements over the last decade that haven't come to fruition. If you were handicapping these 2 kind of helping us with our supply model going forward, how likely are these? And kind of in what time frame should we expect them to come up, do you think?

也許還有另一種方法可以對抗醋酸。在過去的四、五個月裡，已經有兩次非常重大的新產能公告。所以你有 ZPCC 加上 BP 然後是 Reliance。現在我知道，過去十年我們發布了很多聲明，但都沒有實現。如果您要阻礙這兩種方式幫助我們推進未來的供應模式，那麼這種可能性有多大？您認為我們應該預期它們會在什麼時間範圍內出現？

Yes. So, look, Duffy, if I look at the current economics around acetyls, I think it doesn't support new investment. So we really have to consider what other motivations these companies would have to build out acetic acid capacity, and I'll ask Todd to comment on that. But I would also say, from experience, any new capacity being announced now, it's probably a 3- to 5-year period to design, construct, get permits, et cetera, depending on the location. But I'd say it's 3 to 5 years before we would actually be able to see any of that capacity come online. Todd, do you have anything to add?

是的。所以，達菲，你看，如果我看一下乙醯基的當前經濟狀況，我認為它不支持新的投資。因此，我們確實必須考慮這些公司建造醋酸產能的其他動機，我會請托德對此發表評論。但我還要說，根據經驗，現在宣布的任何新產能，根據地點不同，可能需要 3 到 5 年的時間來設計、建造、獲得許可等。但我想說，我們實際上還需要 3 到 5 年的時間才能看到這些產能投入使用。托德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, Duffy, I think that's right. On the first one you mentioned, we were asked that question last quarter and continue to see that as an integration step associated with the chain to polyester. So it's -- in our view, it's just an integration move and it's probably multiple years down the road.

是的，達菲，我認為是這樣。關於您提到的第一個問題，我們在上個季度被問過這個問題，並且繼續將其視為與聚酯產業鏈相關的整合步驟。所以，我們認為，這只是一個整合舉措，而且可能還需要幾年的時間。

Okay. And then a question around Ibn Sina. So after the expansion there: one, how has Ibn Sina run in the interim? And then two, do you see any change in the ownership structure with Aramco's investment in SABIC?

好的。然後是關於伊本西納的一個問題。那麼在那裡擴張之後：第一，伊本西納在此期間表現如何？第二，您是否認為沙特阿美對沙烏地基礎工業公司的投資會導致所有權結構發生任何變化？

Yes. So with Ibn Sina, of course, had a big turnaround this year, that hit our earnings this year by about $30 million. That's a normal turnaround. I think operationally, we're happy with the Ibn Sina operation.

是的。當然，伊本西納今年出現了巨大的轉變，這導致我們今年的收益減少了約 3000 萬美元。這是一個正常的轉變。我認為從行動上來說，我們對伊本西納行動感到滿意。

So far, we've seen no real impact from the acquisition of SABIC, the ownership change to Saudi Aramco. I don't anticipate that will really change anything, and we certainly haven't seen anything yet.

到目前為止，我們尚未看到收購 SABIC 和所有權變更為沙烏地阿美所帶來的實際影響。我不認為這會真正改變任何事情，而且我們目前還沒有看到任何事情。

Our next question is coming from Mike Sison of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

When I -- if I take a look at adjusted EBIT for the Acetyl Chain in the fourth quarter and even add back Clear Lake and annualize it, it's a little -- it's below the $750 million to $800 million that you talked about in your prepared remarks in terms of your earnings level that you think is sustainable. So I guess, is that kind of the outlook for 2020 to be in that range? And then, if so, how do we sort of improve from fourth quarter levels?

當我——如果我看一下第四季度乙醯基鏈的調整後息稅前利潤，甚至加上 Clear Lake 並將其年化，它有點——低於您在準備好的發言中談到的 7.5 億至 8 億美元，就您認為可持續的盈利水平而言。所以我猜，2020 年的前景會在這個範圍內嗎？那麼，如果是這樣，我們如何從第四季度的水平上有所提高？

Yes. So if you look at just fourth quarter, Mike, I mean, 2 factors. Clear -- so Clear Lake, $20 million, and then typical seasonality in acetyls is $20 million to $30 million. So I think if you add those back in, you pretty quickly get us back to that $750 million to $800 million foundational level that we believe we're at in acetyls.

是的。所以如果你只看第四季度，麥克，我的意思是，有兩個因素。Clear — Clear Lake 的價格為 2000 萬美元，而乙醯基的典型季節性價格為 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元。因此，我認為，如果將這些因素加回去，我們很快就會回到我們認為乙醯基領域 7.5 億至 8 億美元的基礎水準。

Okay, great. And then I think earlier, maybe in the fourth quarter, given where your stock was, that the thought was that the portfolio made most sense to stay together. We're a little bit far from that level, unfortunately, now. So any thoughts there in what you think you need to do to get a sustainable appreciation for the portfolio that you have?

好的，太好了。然後我認為早些時候，也許是在第四季度，考慮到你的股票所在位置，我們認為投資組合保持在一起是最有意義的。不幸的是，我們現在距離那個水平還有點遠。那麼您認為需要做些什麼才能讓您的投資組合獲得可持續的增值呢？

Yes. Look, I agree. We still think it makes sense to keep it together at this point, because of some of the dis-synergies associated with splitting it. I think we see the whole market down right now, so it's kind of hard to say where we'll end up if we see some turnaround as we go.

是的。瞧，我同意。我們仍然認為，目前將其保持完整是有意義的，因為拆分會帶來一些不協同效應。我認為我們現在看到整個市場都在下滑，所以很難說如果我們看到一些好轉，我們最終會走向何方。

We're actually quite excited and optimistic about 2020. We think we have a good path laid out in front of us. We think we'll be able to continue to show the potential earnings capability and high multiple capability of this business as we move through 2020. We're also really excited about our strategy for the next 6 years and the earnings growth potential associated with that strategy. Again, based on things under our control, which is organic CapEx investment and productivity. So we think this continues to be a really high return business. We think, as we move into 2020, that will be more recognized by the market. And just ask you guys to kind of watch this space.

事實上，我們對 2020 年感到非常興奮和樂觀。我們認為我們面前有一條良好的道路。我們認為，隨著 2020 年的到來，我們將能夠繼續展示該業務的潛在獲利能力和高倍數能力。我們對未來 6 年的策略以及與該策略相關的獲利成長潛力也感到非常興奮。再次，基於我們控制範圍內的事情，即有機資本支出投資和生產力。因此我們認為這仍然是一項高回報的業務。我們認為，隨著進入2020年，這一點將會得到市場的更多認可。只是請你們關注這個空間。

Our next question is coming from P.J. Juvekar of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 P.J. Juvekar。

One of your competitors called out nylon pricing as quite weak. Can you talk about your nylon business? What you're seeing there in terms of price and volume? And how much of your EM business is more base polymer like nylon versus how much is sort of specialty?

你們的一個競爭對手稱尼龍定價相當疲軟。您能談談您的尼龍業務嗎？就價格和數量而言，您看到了什麼？你們的 EM 業務中有多少是尼龍等基礎聚合物，有多少是特種聚合物？

Yes, good question, P.J. If you might recall back, I think it's the second quarter earnings, we actually did call out softness in nylon pricing and demand back then. And possibly, we see it sooner because we don't polymerize. We buy polymer and we compound nylon. So we were seeing the softness back in midyear.

是的，P.J.，問得好。如果你還記得的話，我想是第二季的收益報告，當時我們確實指出了尼龍價格和需求的疲軟。而且可能因為我們不聚合，所以我們能更快發現它。我們購買聚合物並合成尼龍。因此我們在年中看到了疲軟的跡象。

Frankly, through the second half of the year, it's been where we expected it to be. And so that may be the difference between us and our competitors.

坦白說，今年下半年的情況符合我們的預期。這可能就是我們與競爭對手的差別。

I would say, again, if you look at our EM business, 1/3 of it is really highly differentiated, kind of we're uniquely spec-ed in; 1/3 is differentiated, where maybe we're spec-ed in with someone else, but still differentiated; and then the third is, maybe more towards commodity or me-too-type products. I think that's the best way to characterize our EM business. And we constantly work to minimize that last bucket and move things into the more differentiated space.

我想再說一遍，如果你看一下我們的 EM 業務，其中 1/3 確實是高度差異化的，有點像我們獨特的規格；1/3 是差異化的，也許我們與其他人一起指定，但仍然有差異化；然後三分之一可能更傾向於商品或模仿型產品。我認為這是描述我們的新興市場業務的最佳方式。我們不斷努力將最後一個桶子最小化並將事物轉移到更差異化的空間。

Specifically to our nylon, since that's our more recently-acquired business, and I think I've talked about this also a little bit in the second quarter. What we found with that acquisition is they tended to have more commoditized nylon. And as we've gone through the last 1.5 years, we've been working to transition those to -- with using our project model to transition that to becoming more differentiated. So it will be more insulated to the market demand, like we see kind of 2/3 of our portfolio.

具體來說，對於我們的尼龍，因為這是我們最近收購的業務，我想我在第二季也談過這一點。透過此次收購我們發現，他們傾向於擁有更多商品化的尼龍。在過去的一年半里，我們一直在努力將這些轉變為——透過使用我們的專案模型來實現更加差異化。因此它將更能抵禦市場需求的影響，就像我們所看到的投資組合的 2/3 一樣。

Yes, P.J., I think it's important, that last bucket Lori talked about. I mean it's important that we play in that standard space because a lot of customers are buying a wide variety of different polymers and grades for various applications. And so having a presence in that part of the portfolio is very important to enable really that higher-margin part of the segment.

是的，P.J.，我認為 Lori 談到的最後一個要點很重要。我的意思是，我們在標準領域開展業務非常重要，因為許多客戶正在購買各種不同聚合物和等級的產品用於各種應用。因此，在投資組合的這一部分佔有一席之地對於真正實現該部分高利潤率至關重要。

Can you talk about the acetic acid cost curve? Because I think you take -- effectively take good advantage of that cost curve by moving downstream or moving products around the world. Can you just talk about your observations on the cost curve?

能否講一下醋酸成本曲線？因為我認為你透過向下游轉移或將產品運往世界各地，有效地利用了這條成本曲線。能談談您對成本曲線的觀察嗎？

So there's a couple of different aspects of that, P.J. The first I would start with is, the vast majority of our acetic acid is produced in Clear Lake. And the reason for that is the cost advantage we have with natural gas pricing in the U.S. So I think that's the first piece. And clearly, that was a little bit of an impact with the Clear Lake downtime in fourth quarter. But we see that as an advantage, which continues well into the future and is the reason for our acetic acid reconfiguration project, which allows us to produce even more in the U.S., take advantage of that raw material as well as economy of scale productivity in lieu of making product somewhere else.

因此，這有幾個不同的方面，P.J.首先我要說的是，我們的絕大多數乙酸都是在 Clear Lake 生產的。原因在於我們在美國天然氣定價方面具有成本優勢。所以我認為這是第一點。顯然，這對 Clear Lake 在第四季度的停機造成了一點影響。但我們認為這是一個優勢，它將持續到未來，也是我們開展乙酸重建計畫的原因，這使我們能夠在美國生產更多的產品，利用原材料以及規模經濟生產力，而不是在其他地方生產產品。

And then as we've talked about before, our ability, which is unique, we think, in the industry, one, we can go off-stream and make choices around how we acquire CO and methanol or make it ourselves, whatever is most economic, and then making choices about where to take value out of the chain, whether we move material into VAM and VAE or into emulsions, and now, another option to move into redispersible powder. We think that gives us a unique capability to manage a variety of economic conditions and make choices about where to take value out of the chain.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們認為，我們在行業中擁有獨一無二的能力，首先，我們可以選擇如何獲取二氧化碳和甲醇，或者我們自己生產，無論哪種方式最經濟，然後選擇從哪裡獲取價值鏈中，無論我們將材料轉移到 VAM 和 VAE 還是乳液中，現在，還有另一種選擇，即轉移到可再分散性粉末中。我們認為這賦予我們獨特的能力來管理各種經濟條件並選擇從鏈中獲取價值。

That and the fact that we're globally located. We can choose where to sell for any of the range of our products, whether it be Asia or Western Hemisphere, and take advantage of those. And we've seen it, we saw it in '18, where it made sense to move a lot of acid into China because of pricing. This year, we see the opposite, where we've moved significant volumes, Todd mentioned them, into VAM, VAE and emulsions and into the Western Hemisphere to take advantage of better pricing.

這與我們的全球分佈有關。我們可以選擇在哪裡銷售我們的任何產品，無論是亞洲還是西半球，並利用這些優勢。我們已經看到了這一點，我們在 2018 年就看到了這一點，當時由於價格原因，將大量酸運往中國是合理的。今年，我們看到的情況正好相反，托德提到，我們將大量產品轉移到 VAM、VAE 和乳液中，並轉移到西半球，以獲得更好的定價。

Our next question is coming from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的大衛‧貝格萊特。

Lori, can you just talk about, within EM, how much of the business is auto-related? And how much was that business down in Q4? And how much was it down in 2019?

洛里，你能不能談談，在 EM 內部，有多少業務與汽車相關？第四季該業務下降了多少？2019 年下降了多少？

Sure. So about 1/3 of our EM business is tied to auto. And if you look at auto, auto was down about 6% globally in 2019 versus 2018. It's really all regions of the world. The U.S. is a little bit better.

當然。因此，我們的 EM 業務約有 1/3 與汽車相關。如果你看一下汽車，你會發現 2019 年全球汽車銷量與 2018 年相比下降了約 6%。它確實遍布世界各地。美國稍微好一點。

Unfortunately, 2 markets that we play very heavily in, Germany and China, were down closer to 8%. And then if you look at what that impact is on us, I mean, that's auto builds, but what we saw is with destocking at many of the molders and things in between us and the auto build, we actually saw double that amount of impact in terms of demand on materials going into auto. So we're really talking kind of a double-digit impact if we were based just on build.

不幸的是，我們重點關注的兩個市場——德國和中國——的跌幅接近 8%。然後，如果你看看這對我們有什麼影響，我的意思是，這是汽車製造，但我們看到的是，許多模具製造商和我們與汽車製造之間的事物都在去庫存，我們實際上看到對汽車材料需求的影響是其兩倍。因此，如果我們僅基於構建的話，我們實際上談論的是兩位數的影響。

Now fortunately, we've also been continuously working to get the volume per vehicle up that we have. So since 2015, we've seen about 11% per year increase in the volume of materials we put into vehicles, part of that being M&A, but just 2% to 3% in the base volume. So that's offset some of that impact, but still clearly a significant impact this year.

幸運的是，我們也一直在努力提高每輛車的銷售量。因此，自 2015 年以來，我們看到用於車輛的材料量每年增加約 11%，其中一部分是併購，但基礎量僅增加了 2% 至 3%。因此，這抵消了部分影響，但今年的影響顯然仍然很大。

And, Todd, can you just comment on where acid profitability is in China today? Maybe where it was a year ago? And what your expectations are for it to go over the course of the year?

托德，您能否評論一下目前中國的酸獲利能力如何？也許它一年前就在那裡？您對今年的發展有何期望？

Yes, I think we touched on it a bit. I mean pricing did fall over the course of '19 versus '18, and probably, call it, about a 40% drop, '19 versus '18, so significant. And even during the fourth quarter, we saw it notch down each month to the low point in December. And that's why we intentionally pulled product out of the region, moved it elsewhere, moved it downstream to derivatives, positioned that into different parts of the world, different applications to offset part of that development late in the year.

是的，我想我們稍微談了一下。我的意思是，與 2018 年相比，2019 年的價格確實下降了，可能，與 2018 年相比，2019 年的價格下降了 40% 左右，降幅非常大。即使在第四季度，我們也看到它每個月都在下降，到 12 月達到最低點。這就是為什麼我們有意將產品撤出該地區，轉移到其他地方，轉移到下游衍生品，並將其定位到世界不同地區、不同的應用領域，以抵消今年年底的部分發展。

Going into Q1, going into this fourth -- first quarter, we've already seen pricing up almost 10% in January. We think it's going to move over the course of the year. I mean that's part of the ramp-up to our $11. We're going to play a big role in that. We're ready to work hard on our network to move pricing over the course of the year. We've got to get through these 2 turnarounds -- or 3, actually, in total. Methanol is down as we speak here in Q1, and we have both acetic acid in Nanjing and in Clear Lake in Q2.

進入第一季度，進入第四季度，我們已經看到 1 月份價格上漲了近 10%。我們認為這一趨勢將在今年內發生變化。我的意思是這是我們提高到 11 美元的一部分。我們將在其中發揮重要作用。我們準備努力改進我們的網絡，以便在今年內提高價格。我們必須完成這兩次轉變——或者實際上總共三次。正如我們所說，第一季甲醇價格下跌，而第二季南京和清湖都有醋酸。

By the way, those turnarounds are unusual in that they're every 4 years in the case of methanol, and every 3 years in the case of acetic acid. So we're going to get those out of the way. We've got Clear Lake now back at full strength. And so we're -- we think we're well set up to move price over the course of the year once we get demand back to normal levels.

順便說一句，這些週轉是不尋常的，因為甲醇每 4 年發生一次，而乙酸每 3 年發生一次。所以我們要解決這些問題。清水湖現已恢復全部水力。因此，我們認為，一旦需求恢復到正常水平，我們就可以在今年內調整價格。

So, Todd, on profitability, though, were profits -- were people at breakeven levels Q4 in China? Just focused a little bit more on profitability not pricing.

那麼，托德，就獲利能力而言，利潤——中國第四季的利潤是否達到損益兩平水平？只是更關注獲利能力而不是定價。

Yes, I can't -- I can't answer exactly where everybody is there. I think it was a tough, tough end of the year for -- certainly for those producers in the space, given the combination of where methanol ended up, the MTO dynamics. I think it was a tough end of the year, but largely on soft demand, availability and just uncertainty. But I think that'll improve as we go forward. But our job is to maneuver within our network and position Celanese in the best way to take advantage of our network capabilities.

是的，我不能——我無法確切回答每個人都在哪裡。我認為對於該領域的生產商來說，這是一個非常艱難的年底，因為考慮到甲醇的最終去向以及 MTO 的動態。我認為今年年底是艱難的，但主要是因為需求疲軟、供應不足以及不確定性。但我認為隨著我們不斷前進，這種情況會得到改善。但我們的工作是在我們的網路內進行操作，並使塞拉尼斯以最佳方式利用我們的網路能力。

Our next question is coming from Ghansham Panjabi of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

This is actually Matt Krueger sitting in for Ghansham. So sticking with the China theme. I just wanted to dig into what impact could coronavirus have on the acetic acid market in China? And how could this impact the global supply chain? Do you believe that any disruptions or related tightening would be a net positive or a net negative given the kind of demand, but also the capacity and pricing puts and takes there?

這實際上是馬特·克魯格 (Matt Krueger) 代替甘沙姆 (Ghansham)。因此堅持中國主題。我只是想深入了解冠狀病毒會對中國的醋酸市場產生什麼影響？這會對全球供應鏈產生什麼影響？考慮到需求類型以及產能和定價因素，您是否認為任何中斷或相關的緊縮政策會產生淨正面影響還是淨負面影響？

Yes. Look, it's a great question. We don't know how long or what the impact is. Our first priority right now remains the health and safety of the over 800 people that we have in China. At this moment in time, we don't have any employees affected, and our operations continue as they were going into this. So at this point, we're not seeing an impact.

是的。瞧，這是一個很好的問題。我們不知道這會持續多久，也不知道會產生什麼影響。我們現在的首要任務仍然是確保在中國的800多人的健康和安全。目前，我們沒有任何員工受到影響，我們的營運仍在繼續。所以目前我們還沒有看到影響。

I mean, clearly, if producers shut down, if this is extended, there could be a drop in demand, but there could also be a drop in supply. To that impact, specifically to Celanese, most of what we make in China stays in China. So we think that will be somewhat balanced for us. But quite frankly, it's just too early to call until we see how this further develops.

我的意思是，顯然，如果生產商關閉，如果這種情況持續下去，需求可能會下降，但供應也可能會下降。受此影響，特別是對塞拉尼斯而言，我們在中國生產的大部分產品都留在了中國。所以我們認為這對我們來說會比較平衡。但坦白說，在我們了解事情進一步發展之前，現在下結論還為時過早。

That's helpful. Understood. And then just wanted to touch on kind of the global growth in [mosaic]. So if global growth were to decelerate from current levels versus kind of inflect higher in the back half of the year, which seems to be what we're expecting, where does the sequential -- what primary levers do you have under your control that could maybe drive earnings stability or earnings improvement, even if global growth doesn't cooperate quite as much?

這很有幫助。明白了。然後我只想談談[馬賽克]的全球成長。因此，如果全球經濟成長從當前水平減速，而不是在今年下半年有所回升（這似乎是我們預期的），那麼即使全球經濟成長沒有那麼配合，連續的——您可以控制哪些主要槓桿來推動盈利穩定或盈利改善？

Yes. So just to clarify, our outlook for 2020 is really based on an economic environment similar to the first 3 quarters of 2019. So not increase in demand or increase in supply. And the real lever we have in front of us to -- in addition to working our business model, moving into derivatives and acetyls, the project model and EM, is productivity.

是的。因此需要澄清的是，我們對 2020 年的展望實際上是基於與 2019 年前三個季度類似的經濟環境。因此需求不會增加，供給也不會增加。我們面前真正的槓桿是——除了運作我們的商業模式、進入衍生物和乙醯基、專案模型和 EM 之外，還有生產力。

I mean, the one thing I have to say is, the 9 months I've been here as CEO, I am just so impressed at the embedded productivity culture that exists in Celanese. I mean it is not a once-a-year exercise. It is not even a once-a-quarter exercise. It is an everyday exercise for our folks to look for ways to reduce cost, improve raw materials, improve utilization. I mean this is happening every single day. I mean, clearly, going into 2020, we realize we have a big uplift required. And so we have taken additional steps to try to identify other things that can happen.

我的意思是，我要說的一件事是，在我擔任執行長的 9 個月裡，塞拉尼斯根深蒂固的生產力文化給我留下了深刻的印象。我的意思是這不是一年一次的演習。這甚至不是每季一次的演習。我們的員工每天都在尋找降低成本、改善原料、提高使用率的方法。我的意思是這種事每天都在發生。我的意思是，顯然，進入 2020 年，我們意識到我們需要大幅提升。因此，我們採取了額外措施來嘗試識別可能發生的其他事情。

But just maybe a few examples. I mean so we're constantly working on organizational efficiency. So revamping our supply chain and how we manage that and moving to a more digitized, modern system for supply chain is a way that we'll get credits this year and over the next several years. Increasing digitization of all of our operations, not just our manufacturing operations, but also the way we handle customer orders and every other aspect of our business. Really looking at our global and regional org structures to make sure that they're properly sized and configured to best support our businesses going forward.

但也許只是幾個例子。我的意思是我們一直在努力提高組織效率。因此，改進我們的供應鏈以及管理供應鏈的方式，並轉向更數位化、現代化的供應鏈系統，是我們在今年和未來幾年獲得讚譽的一種方式。提高我們所有營運的數位化程度，不僅是我們的製造運營，還包括我們處理客戶訂單的方式以及我們業務的其他各個方面。認真審視我們的全球和區域組織結構，以確保其規模和配置合理，從而最好地支持我們未來的業務。

We also look always at our footprint. So you saw the announcement around shutting down compounding in Shelby. We shut down the Lebanon facility this past year. You're familiar with the Ocotl?n shutdown. I mean these are all things constantly look at doing, which is how do we drive cost out? How do we improve efficiency? How do we improve utilization? Just a few examples. And I think this is something Celanese does extremely well, and I'm extremely proud to be a part of, which is continuously kind of keeping the future in our own hands rather than just being dependent on the market.

我們也時時刻刻關注著自己的足跡。所以你看到了關於關閉謝爾比化工廠的公告。我們去年關閉了黎巴嫩工廠。您對 Ocotl?n 關閉事件很熟悉。我的意思是這些都是需要不斷考慮的事情，也就是我們如何降低成本？我們如何提高效率？我們如何提高利用率？僅舉幾個例子。我認為塞拉尼斯在這方面做得非常好，我非常自豪能夠成為其中的一員，我們始終將未來掌握在自己手中，而不是只依賴市場。

Our next question is coming from Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

So just related to that. 2 questions around sustainability. In your prepared remarks, you called out sort of the overall outperformance of EM against the underlying market. If conditions stay weak for several years, do you see the gap of outperformance being stable? Or do you think over time you would converge -- or you'd lose some of that excess outperformance?

所以僅與此相關。2 個有關永續性的問題。在您準備好的發言中，您指出新興市場相對於基礎市場的整體表現優異。如果情況持續幾年處於疲軟狀態，您是否認為超額報酬差距會保持穩定？或者您認為隨著時間的推移，您會趨於一致——或者您會失去一些超額的表現？

And secondly, on productivity, with the step-up that you're doing this year, how should we think about the ebb and flow, that is, if conditions improve, does the pace of productivity slow down? Or do you now see a line of sight to 3 to 5 years of $250 million of gross productivity because you've changed your approach or you found different angles that weren't previously gone after?

其次，關於生產力，隨著今年生產力的提高，我們該如何看待生產力的起伏，也就是說，如果條件改善，生產力的步伐是否會放慢？或者，由於您改變了方法，或者發現了以前未曾追求過的不同角度，您現在是否看到了 3 至 5 年內實現 2.5 億美元總生產力的前景？

Yes. Thanks, Laurence. Look, on the outperformance versus the market. This is built into how we do business. And I don't think that changes under varying market conditions. So again, I talked extensively already about the strength of our Acetyl Chain and how that differentiates us from our competitors because we have so much optionality around where to take value out of the chain and geographic optionality. That exists no matter if we're at high acetic acid prices or low, and I think sets us uniquely apart.

是的。謝謝，勞倫斯。看看與市場相比的優異表現。這是我們經營業務的方式之一。我認為，在不同的市場條件下，這種情況不會改變。因此，我再次廣泛地談論了我們的乙醯基鏈的優勢以及它如何使我們與競爭對手區分開來，因為我們在從鏈中獲取價值的地點和地理選擇性方面擁有很多選擇性。無論乙酸價格是高還是低，這種情況都存在，我認為這使我們與眾不同。

And Engineered Materials, our project business model, which we've now overlaid with more of a program focus on emerging markets, things like EV, [5G], medical, we think that will allow us to continue to outperform. And again, based on my experience, I think our productivity measures far exceed -- and our consistency of productivity measures far exceed that of most of our competitors. So I think under any range of economic conditions, we will be able to continue to outperform the market and outperform our competitors.

我們的專案業務模式是工程材料，現在我們更專注於新興市場，例如電動車、[5G]、醫療等領域，我們認為這將使我們繼續表現出色。而且，根據我的經驗，我認為我們的生產力指標遠遠超過——而且我們的生產力指標的一致性遠遠超過我們大多數的競爭對手。因此我認為，無論在何種經濟條件下，我們都能夠繼續超越市場並超越我們的競爭對手。

Yes, Laurence. I think one thing that's important is that the shape of that productivity changes over time depending on where we are in the market. And so if we get to a period of growth, our productivity tends to shift a little more towards revenue generation projects and debottlenecks, for example. So those are all things that -- the program of productivity that we operate here really is always looking at the things in the hopper and then matching with projects we accelerate depending on where we're at from a demand landscape perspective.

是的，勞倫斯。我認為重要的一點是，生產力的形態會隨著我們在市場中的位置而改變。因此，如果我們進入增長期，我們的生產力就會更多地轉向創收項目和消除瓶頸等。所以這些都是——我們在這裡運行的生產力計劃實際上總是關注料斗中的東西，然後根據需求格局的角度，與我們加速的項目相匹配。

Our next question is coming from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

I wanted to ask you about 2 different derivatives. First, in VAM, I think one of your competitors declared force majeure about 3 weeks ago. I was wondering if you could talk about your near-term outlook for VAM.

我想問您有關兩種不同的衍生品的問題。首先，在 VAM 中，我認為您的一個競爭對手大約在 3 週前宣布了不可抗力。我想知道您是否可以談談您對 VAM 的近期展望。

And then secondly, you announced intention to expand in VAE, 155-kiloton split between the Netherlands and China. I was wondering if you could just talk about what is driving that. Is VAE tight? And if so, why is that the case relative to other asset yield derivatives?

其次，您宣布有意擴大 VAE，荷蘭和中國之間將分配 155 千噸的產能。我想知道您是否可以談談造成這種情況的原因。VAE 密封嗎？如果是這樣，為什麼相對於其他資產收益衍生性商品而言如此？

Yes. So I'm going to ask Todd to comment, maybe just a bit broader. So we actually see both of these as great opportunities for expansion. We see demand continuing to increase, and we think we have a favorable cost and technology position. And so in Clear Lake, in VAM, we actually have just completed a 150-kiloton expansion. We have another 150 kiloton over the next several years that we can do through small and low capital expansions in other locations. And then as you said, in VAE, we recently made the announcement about the expansions there, primarily in Nanjing and Geleen, but also some other areas.

是的。所以我要請托德發表評論，也許範圍更廣一些。因此，我們實際上將這兩者都視為巨大的擴張機會。我們看到需求持續成長，我們認為我們擁有有利的成本和技術地位。因此，在 Clear Lake 和 VAM，我們實際上剛剛完成了 150 千噸的擴建。未來幾年，我們還可以再生產 15 萬噸，這可以透過在其他地區進行小規模、低資本的擴張來實現。正如您所說，在 VAE，我們最近宣布了在那裡擴張的計劃，主要是在南京和格林，但也包括其他一些地區。

Again, we can do these in a very low capital way, which we think makes it very attractive for us and into the markets we're in. But let me hand it over to Todd, and he can add a bit more color.

再說一次，我們可以用非常低的資本方式來實現這些目標，我們認為這對我們以及我們所在的市場來說都非常有吸引力。但讓我把它交給托德，他可以添加更多顏色。

Yes. We're well positioned in that building space, think of self-leveling flooring, wall texturizing applications such as that external thermal insulation systems, both today and then going forward with our powders acquisition. So if you back up to the VAE news that we rolled out, the first wave of those are very targeted debottlenecks. So some capability enhancements that we'll bring into Geleen in the Netherlands as well as in Nanjing. Those are principally in reaction to customer pull.

是的。我們在建築領域佔據有利地位，想想自流平地板、牆面紋理應用（例如外部隔熱系統），無論是現在還是將來，隨著我們粉末的收購。因此，如果您回顧我們推出的 VAE 新聞，您會發現第一波都是非常有針對性的瓶頸消除。因此，我們將把一些能力增強帶到荷蘭的赫倫和南京。這些主要是對顧客拉動的反應。

So we are fairly full, and so it's not a build way ahead and try to [wait] on demand. So these are really in response to customer needs, position us for the near term.

所以我們已經相當滿，所以這不是提前構建並嘗試按需[等待]。所以這些其實是為了回應客戶的需求，為我們近期做好準備。

And then following that, the next wave will be polymerization expansion in those 2 sites, looking out over the next several years. And that will dovetail nicely with the addition of the downstream step, which is the powder -- redispersible powder, largely built on VAE emulsions.

接下來的幾年裡，下一波浪潮將是這兩個地點的聚合擴張。這將與下游步驟完美契合，下游步驟是粉末 - 可再分散粉末，主要基於 VAE 乳液。

So it's really a looking ahead. It's adding a derivative capability, being ready for customer demand, customer pull, and then we'll activate those operations in conjunction with customer needs over the next several years.

所以這確實是展望未來的做法。它增加了衍生能力，為客戶需求和客戶拉動做好準備，然後我們將在未來幾年內結合客戶需求啟動這些操作。

Our next question is coming from Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

I wanted to touch on EM equity earnings and -- just based on the trajectory of methanol in 4Q, I would think EM equity earnings are biased lower to start the year. I'd imagine it reverts. But what are you expecting for kind of full year 2020 over 2019?

我想談談新興市場的股票收益——僅基於第四季甲醇的走勢，我認為新興市場的股票收益在年初會偏低。我想它會恢復。但是，與 2019 年相比，您對 2020 年全年有何期待？

So we do expect some uplift in equity earnings in 2020. I mean, the biggest piece of that, of course, being the absence of the Ibn Sina turnaround, which was $30 million there. Just there. We also saw some softness in demand and pricing, which affected some of our other equity earnings. I don't actually expect that to be much different in 2020 even with slightly lower methanol. I think we should see kind of this year plus the $30 million and maybe a bit more. Do you have any other thoughts on that, Scott?

因此，我們確實預期 2020 年股票收益會有所提升。我的意思是，其中最大的原因當然是伊本西納 (Ibn Sina) 的周轉失敗，當時的周轉成本為 3000 萬美元。就在那裡。我們也發現需求和定價有所疲軟，這影響了我們的其他一些股權收益。即使甲醇價格略有下降，我實際上也不認為 2020 年的情況會有太大不同。我認為我們應該看到今年的收入加上 3000 萬美元甚至更多。史考特，你對此還有其他想法嗎？

No, I think that's consistent. The biggest difference is that Ibn Sina turnaround. And I think the rest of our joint ventures are in Engineered Materials, and we may see some slight improvement driven by the lack of destocking as we go forward in those ventures. Now what I will say is those ventures are largely tied to Asia demand. So they may be a little more susceptible to what's going on in China right now, but we are kind of planning a slight uptick.

不，我認為這是一致的。最大的不同是伊本西那的轉變。我認為我們其餘的合資企業都在工程材料領域，隨著我們在這些合資企業的發展，我們可能會看到由於缺乏去庫存而帶來的一些輕微改善。現在我想說的是，這些投資很大程度上與亞洲的需求有關。因此，他們可能更容易受到目前中國局勢的影響，但我們計劃稍微增加一些。

Okay. And then maybe a bit of a throwback here, but oil prices were moving higher consistently through 4Q while acetic acid was dropping. I mean, was there ever an opportunity to run TCX? Or is that still just way out of the money and not really a consideration anymore?

好的。然後可能有點倒退，但油價在第四季持續走高，而醋酸價格卻在下降。我的意思是，有沒有機會運行 TCX？或者這仍然只是一種浪費錢的方式，不再需要真正考慮了？

Not really a consideration. And the oil run-up was pretty short-lived. So it really didn't have any impact on how we ran or any of our decisions in the quarter.

沒什麼好考慮的。油價上漲的持續時間相當短暫。因此，它實際上並沒有對我們的營運方式或本季的任何決策產生任何影響。

Our next question is coming from Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Yes, just following up on that question. Just wanted to get your thoughts on the trajectory of methanol as it relates to VAM and acetic. What kind of decisions are you making to push more of your material down into VAM and acetic? I mean -- and what's your margin outlook, especially given weak methanol -- a weaker outlook for methanol?

是的，我只是想繼續回答這個問題。只是想了解您對甲醇與 VAM 和乙酸關係軌蹟的看法。您做出什麼樣的決定來將更多的材料推入 VAM 和乙酸中？我的意思是——您的利潤前景如何，特別是在甲醇疲軟的情況下——甲醇前景較弱？

Yes. I guess from a big picture overview, I would just say we don't really make decisions around investment based on kind of our outlook on short-term economics. I mean what we have found in this business and what I continue to believe is true is having more optionality in the chain over a long period of time gives us the opportunity to optimize and stabilize our earnings out of the Acetyl Chain over the long term.

是的。我想從整體來看，我們實際上並不會根據對短期經濟的展望來做出投資決策。我的意思是，我們在這個行業中發現的以及我一直相信的事實是，在很長一段時間內，在鏈條中擁有更多的選擇性，使我們有機會長期優化和穩定乙醯基鏈的收益。

So that's -- methanol is not really what's driving our decision for VAE and VAM investment. I think Todd described that.

因此，甲醇並不是我們決定投資 VAE 和 VAM 的真正原因。我認為托德描述過這一點。

Todd, I don't know if you have any other comment?

托德，我不知道你還有其他評論嗎？

Yes. I mean methanol is a key raw material. A strategic raw material. We made the investment a few years ago to produce, therefore improving the balance between make or buy, and that's how we think about it. I think it's interesting, when you look at our earnings profile last year, '19 versus even 2017, right? So we had $727 million of earnings this 2019. In 2017, with the exact same revenue, $3.4 billion of revenue, an almost identical tonnage, just over 5.2 million tons. We increased our earnings by over $150 million. Just think about that. From $575 million back in '17 to $727 million this last year, and raised our EBIT as a percentage of sales from 17% to 21%.

是的。我的意思是甲醇是一種關鍵原料。一種戰略原材料。幾年前，我們進行了投資來生產，從而改善了自製和購買之間的平衡，這就是我們的想法。我覺得很有趣，當你查看我們去年、19 年甚至 2017 年的獲利狀況時，對吧？因此，我們 2019 年的收益為 7.27 億美元。2017年，收入完全相同，為34億美元，噸位也幾乎相同，略高於520萬噸。我們的收益增加了1.5億美元以上。想一想吧。從 2017 年的 5.75 億美元增加到去年的 7.27 億美元，並將息稅前利潤佔銷售額的百分比從 17% 提高到 21%。

So we aim for north of 20% EBIT margins. We do that with this optionality that Lori has outlined, and that's how we're going to run the business. Pricing for acetic acid, partly to your question, we think is more influenced by supply-demand dynamics versus methanol.

因此，我們的目標是息稅前利潤率達到 20% 以上。我們利用 Lori 所概述的這種可選性來做到這一點，這就是我們經營業務的方式。就您的問題而言，我們認為醋酸的定價比甲醇的定價更受供需動態的影響。

That's helpful. And then just as a quick follow-up. Just curious on the cash flow side. Do you think working capital is going to be a source of funds this year? And if so, could you size that for us just given the raw material backdrop?

這很有幫助。然後只是進行快速跟進。只是對現金流方面感到好奇。您認為營運資金會成為今年的資金來源嗎？如果是的話，您能否根據原料背景為我們估算一下？

Yes, Arun, it's -- I don't know that it will be a huge source of funds. As we see business growth, it tends to be fairly neutral to possibly a slight increase in working capital. We're going to take -- continue to take aggressive actions around our controllable items in working capital to improve that, but I think it's going to be relatively flat.

是的，阿倫，我不知道這是否會成為巨大的資金來源。當我們看到業務成長時，它往往相當中性，營運資本可能會略有增加。我們將繼續針對營運資金中的可控項目採取積極行動來改善這一狀況，但我認為這種狀況將相對穩定。

The big change in free cash flow year-over-year is going to be the increase in CapEx. So we expect capital to be around $500 million year-over-year and an expectation in our current cash flow forecast that we will have a payment to the European Commission.

自由現金流同比的巨大變化將是資本支出的增加。因此，我們預計資本將年增約 5 億美元，根據我們目前的現金流預測，我們預計將向歐盟委員會支付一筆款項。

Our next question is coming from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Yes, Scott, just a follow-up on that. Can you talk a little bit more about the $89 million you reserved for the European Commission investigation? Where does that stand? Where might that head to?

是的，斯科特，我只是想跟進。您能否再多談談為歐盟委員會調查預留的 8,900 萬美元的情況？情況如何？這可能會帶來什麼結果？

Yes. Look, right now, Frank, I can't provide a lot of comments. I mean based on everything we know to date from the commission, we don't expect to book any further reserve. And like I said, it's in our cash flow forecasts for 2020.

是的。聽著，弗蘭克，現在我無法提供太多評論。我的意思是，根據我們迄今為止從委員會了解到的所有信息，我們預計不會再預訂任何儲備。正如我所說，它包含在我們 2020 年的現金流預測中。

Okay. And then, Lori, in the transcript, you highlighted the GM strike had a bigger-than-expected impact in your fourth quarter than anticipated. And you outlined some reasons for that in terms of the supply chain from the Tier 2 suppliers, et cetera. I'm curious, is this something that was -- if it didn't happen in the fourth quarter, is this something that could be a first quarter event? Do you expect this to rebound and impact your first quarter or perhaps second quarter?

好的。然後，洛里，在記錄中，你強調了通用汽車罷工對第四季度的影響比預期的要大。您從二級供應商的供應鏈等方面概述了其中的一些原因。我很好奇，如果這件事沒有發生在第四季度，那麼它是否會成為第一季的事件？您是否預計這種情況會反彈並影響您的第一季或第二季？

No, we really don't. I would say, we hadn't really expected much impact at all from GM because our assumption was, once the strike was over, they'd start back up and kind of take that volume. They stayed down a bit longer, as did many of the auto builders, by the way, a bit longer through the holidays. And so we saw more of an impact, but we do not expect this to continue into the first and second quarter.

不，我們確實不知道。我想說，我們實際上並沒有期望通用汽車會帶來多大的影響，因為我們的假設是，一旦罷工結束，他們就會重新開始生產並恢復到原來的產量。順便說一句，他們停工的時間更長一些，就像許多汽車製造商一樣，在假期期間停工的時間更長一些。因此我們看到了更大的影響，但我們預計這種影響不會持續到第一季和第二季。

Our next question is coming from Jim Sheehan of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 的 Jim Sheehan。

Lori, are transformative M&A options now completely off the table because of potential dissynergies? It sounds like in the past that you said that dissynergies were not a barrier to considering that. So if that's off the table now, why is that the case?

洛里，由於潛在的不協同效應，變革性的併購選擇現在是否已經完全不可能了？聽起來您過去曾說過，不協同效應並不是考慮這一點的障礙。那如果現在不再考慮這個，那為什麼會這樣呢？

I mean so maybe I should clarify. Dissynergies are not a barrier to consider. It is just a hurdle that has to be come over. So the deal has to be good enough to be able to carry those dissynergies. So as I said before, we continuously look at M&A, both bolt-ons like the Elotex deal, which we've just closed, as well as transformative M&A. If and when it happens, if it's a good deal, we'll do it. But we're trying to position our strategy so that M&A is an option for us, not a necessity.

我的意思是也許我應該澄清一下。不協同效應並不是需要考慮的障礙。這只是一個必須克服的障礙。因此，交易必須足夠好才能承受這些不協同效應。正如我之前所說，我們不斷關注併購，包括像我們剛完成的 Elotex 交易這樣的附加併購，以及變革性併購。如果發生這種情況，而這是一筆好交易，我們就會這麼做。但我們正努力調整我們的策略，使併購成為我們的一種選擇，而不是必需品。

Yes, Jim. I mean we've been very consistent on this over time. I mean we are focused on creating shareholder value. And so we look at ways in which to do that. And that's both bolt-on as well as transformative, and those deals -- and those -- the things we look at there are really never off the table.

是的，吉姆。我的意思是我們一直以來都堅持這一點。我的意思是我們專注於創造股東價值。因此，我們正在研究如何實現這一目標。這既是附加的，也是變革性的，這些交易——以及那些——我們所考慮的事情實際上從未被排除在外。

And on nylon pricing. The prices peaked in the first quarter of '19. So do you think that supply-demand has balanced out here? And that the first quarter of 2020, that these headwinds will be behind us? Or do you see more downside risk in the nylon dynamics into the second quarter?

以及尼龍定價。價格在 2019 年第一季達到頂峰。那麼您認為這裡的供需已經平衡了嗎？那麼到 2020 年第一季度，這些不利因素將會消失嗎？或者您認為第二季尼龍市場動態有更多下行風險？

I think -- look, I think our current view on nylon is it seems to be more balanced. We think we're through much of the destocking. There's still some inventory out there, but generally we would see it more balanced going into the year.

我認為——看，我認為我們目前對尼龍的看法似乎更加平衡。我們認為我們已經完成了大部分去庫存工作。目前仍有一些庫存，但總體而言，我們會看到今年庫存更加平衡。

Donna, let's make the next question our last one, please.

唐娜，請把下一個問題當作我們的最後一個問題。

Certainly. Our next question is coming from Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

當然。我們的下一個問題來自都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的馬修布萊爾。

I had 2 questions on just cash flows here. So you provided free cash flow guidance of $900 million. Could you just talk about the split you're thinking about for 2020 between buybacks and M&A?

我對這裡的現金流有兩個問題。所以你提供了 9 億美元的免費現金流指導。您能否談談您對 2020 年回購和併購之間的劃分的看法？

And then the second question, your debt level has moved up a little bit in 2019. You're still within your leverage targets, but how should we think about debt in 2020? Would you look to repay any or perhaps take out some more?

第二個問題，2019 年您的債務水準略有上升。您仍在槓桿率目標範圍內，但我們應該如何看待 2020 年的債務？您是否希望償還部分款項或再提取一些款項？

Yes. I think -- thanks for the question, Matthew. I mean, look, at the end of the day, we are always very consistent in how we look at cash deployment. Our first choice of cash deployment is going to be organic investment back into the company. And given the projects, they're extremely attractive from a return standpoint today, as Lori talked about earlier, that CapEx is moving up over the next several years. And so we're going to be around $500 million of CapEx because those -- it's just the projects are extremely attractive. And historically, our return profile on that was right around 20%. That's always going to be our first choice.

是的。我認為——謝謝你的提問，馬修。我的意思是，歸根結底，我們對現金部署的看法始終非常一致。我們的現金部署的首選是對公司進行有機投資。就這些項目而言，從今天的回報角度來看，它們極具吸引力，正如 Lori 之前談到的，未來幾年資本支出將會增加。因此，我們的資本支出將達到約 5 億美元，因為這些項目非常有吸引力。從歷史上看，我們的回報率大約是 20%。這永遠是我們的首選。

Then we look at M&A, and making sure we're very disciplined in looking at M&A, we're not overpaying and that we're acquiring companies that have high degrees of synergies. But those are going to be episodic. And so when we don't have M&A right in front of us, we're going to deploy that cash for share repurchases. So last year, we did $1 billion of repurchases. This year, given the fact we've already announced one M&A deal, I would see that number probably coming down a little bit. We're targeting at least $500 million this year.

然後我們考慮併購，並確保我們在考慮併購時非常自律，我們不會支付過高的價格，而且我們收購的公司具有高度的協同效應。但這些都是偶發性的。因此，當我們面前沒有併購交易時，我們將利用這些現金進行股票回購。去年，我們進行了 10 億美元的回購。今年，鑑於我們已經宣布了一項併購交易，我認為這個數字可能會略有下降。我們今年的目標是至少 5 億美元。

Regarding debt, debt moved up a little bit as we pulled on the revolver. And the early part of the year for us is always high cash outflows. So Q1 is always a high cash outflow quarter for us. So you see that revolver stay pulled on a little bit higher in the early part of the year and then come down throughout the year over time as we have consistently done it.

至於債務，隨著我們開始動用左輪手槍，債務略有增加。對我們來說，每年年初的現金流出量總是很高。因此，對我們來說，第一季始終是現金流出較高的季度。因此，您會看到，在年初，左輪手槍利率會保持在較高水平，然後隨著時間推移，全年利率會下降，正如我們一貫的做法。

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Chuck for closing comments.

謝謝。現在，我想把發言權交還給查克，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you. So we'd like to thank everybody for listening in today. As usual, we're available after the call for any further questions you might have. Donna, feel free to close out the call at this time.

謝謝。因此，我們要感謝大家今天的收聽。像往常一樣，通話結束後我們會回答您的任何其他問題。唐娜，現在您可以結束通話了。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，享受美好的一天。