塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Chuck Kyrish, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、財務主管和投資者關係副總裁 Chuck Kyrish。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Christine. Good morning, and welcome to Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Chuck Kyrish, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. With me today are Lori Ryerkerk, Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer; and Todd Elliott, Senior Vice President, Acetyl Chain.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2019年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Chuck Kyrish，是投資人關係副總裁兼財務長。今天與我一起的有執行長 Lori Ryerkerk、財務長 Scott Richardson 和 Acetyl Chain 高級副總裁 Todd Elliott。

Celanese Corporation distributed its third quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared remarks about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday after market close.

塞拉尼斯公司透過商業電訊發布了其第三季度收益報告，並在昨天收盤後在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了關於該季度的準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as the prepared comments document. Form 8-K reports containing all these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，可在新聞稿末尾以及準備好的評論文件中找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Since we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll now open the line directly for your questions.

由於我們昨天已經發表了準備好的評論，因此我們現在將直接開通熱線回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Sorry, had you on mute. Could you give us a bridge of -- I'm just looking at the guidance for 2020 versus your midpoint for the full year of '19, and the low end would be 13.4% growth, and the high and would be about over 20%. So if you could just help us bridge to the low end. I understand the high end would require some economic improvement. We all understand what that would be.

抱歉，已將您靜音。您能否為我們提供一個橋樑——我只是在看 2020 年的指導與 2019 年全年的中點，最低端將是 13.4% 的增長，最高端將是 20% 以上。所以如果你能幫助我們跨越低端市場的話。我理解高端產品需要一定的經濟改善。我們都明白那會是什麼。

Vincent, thank you. Look, let me start with what we said last quarter where we bridged kind of from the $10.50 to the $12 because I'm going to use the same factors. If you remember when we were going from $10.50 to $12, we kind of said it was 1/3 market demand, business growth, 1/3 -- sorry, 1/3 productivity and 1/3 from our cash deployment, whether that would be M&A or share buyback.

文森特，謝謝你。瞧，讓我從上個季度所說的開始，我們將價格從 10.50 美元提高到了 12 美元，因為我將使用相同的因素。如果你還記得，當我們從 10.50 美元漲到 12 美元時，我們說過這是 1/3 的市場需求、業務增長、1/3 — — 抱歉，1/3 的生產力和 1/3 的現金部署，無論是併購還是股票回購。

So if we look at this year, excluding the impacts of Clear Lake, we feel like the year would end around $10. And so if we add productivity to that, that's $0.50. If we add another -- if we add the cash deployment to that, again, that can be either M&A or share buyback, that's another $0.50. That gets us to the $11. So the $11 that we reflected in that outlook for 2020 is assuming basically current market conditions. Obviously, if we get any upside going forward from an improved demand environment or price, that can move us towards the $12.

因此，如果我們看今年的情況，排除 Clear Lake 的影響，我們感覺今年年底的價格將在 10 美元左右。如果我們把生產力也算進去的話，那就是 0.50 美元。如果我們再增加一個 - 如果我們添加現金部署，那麼這可以是併購或股票回購，那就是另外的 0.50 美元。這樣我們就得到了 11 美元。因此，我們在 2020 年展望中反映的 11 美元基本上是假設當前的市場狀況。顯然，如果我們從改善的需求環境或價格中獲得任何好處，那麼我們就可以朝著 12 美元邁進。

Okay. And as a follow-up, when we think about Engineered Materials into next year, the volume has been trending lower. And you talked about destocking last quarter, and maybe this quarter, there's a bit of residual destocking. But as we enter into 4Q, should we start to see volume turn positive again? And what type of volume growth do you think you can expect for 2020?

好的。作為後續，當我們考慮明年的工程材料時，其銷售量呈下降趨勢。您談到了上個季度的去庫存，也許本季還會有一些殘餘的去庫存。但隨著我們進入第四季度，我們是否應該開始看到交易量再次轉為正值？您認為 2020 年的銷售成長情況如何？

Yes. So for Engineered Materials, I mean we are up sequentially on volume second quarter to third quarter. We saw the volume up about 3%. So the residual destocking that we referred to was really pretty specific to Europe where we saw autos decline another 15% quarter-on-quarter. So that's really specific. I would say, consistent with what we said last quarter, we really didn't see signs of destocking in China. In fact, we saw volume growth in China. And the U.S. stayed flattish, so we think we were at the bottom of the destocking last quarter.

是的。因此，對於工程材料而言，我的意思是我們第二季至第三季的銷售量環比上升。我們發現交易量上漲了約 3%。因此，我們提到的剩餘去庫存實際上是針對歐洲的，我們發現歐洲汽車銷售量較上季下降了 15%。這確實非常具體。我想說，與我們上個季度所說的一致，我們確實沒有看到中國去庫存的跡象。事實上，我們看到了中國銷量的成長。美國經濟保持平穩，因此我們認為上個季度我們處於去庫存的底部。

So really, the residual destocking was just in Europe. So for Engineered Materials, volume up second quarter to third quarter by about 3%. Going into the fourth quarter, I don't know that we'll see volume growth. We see some seasonality typically in the fourth quarter. We see China continue to grow in advance of their first quarter holiday. But typically, in the U.S. and Europe, we continue to see slowdown. So I don't expect volume growth, third quarter to fourth quarter, but certainly, we expect volume growth based on the project wins that we've had this year as well as just normal seasonality into first quarter next year.

因此，實際上，剩餘的去庫存現像只發生在歐洲。因此，對於工程材料而言，第二季至第三季的銷量成長了約 3%。進入第四季度，我不知道我們是否會看到銷量成長。我們通常在第四季度看到一些季節性現象。我們看到中國在第一季假期前繼續成長。但通常情況下，在美國和歐洲，我們繼續看到經濟放緩。因此，我並不認為第三季到第四季的銷量會有所增長，但可以肯定的是，根據我們今年贏得的項目以及明年第一季的正常季節性因素，我們預計銷量會有所增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

What was your -- how many shares did you buy back in the third quarter?

您在第三季回購了多少股票？

Yes, Jeff, so we bought about $275 million worth of shares, and that was at roughly a price a little over between $105 and $106 a share. So that's kind of where we finished, and we expect to finish the year at about $1 billion of repurchases for calendar year 2019.

是的，傑夫，所以我們買了價值約 2.75 億美元的股票，價格大約在每股 105 至 106 美元之間。這就是我們完成的目標，我們預計 2019 年度的回購金額將達到約 10 億美元。

So I assume that means that you bought no shares in September, is that right?

所以我假設這意味著你在九月沒有買任何股票，對嗎？

No, we've been steadily buying shares that -- since September. Prior to that, we were more opportunistically buying them, but since then, we've just had a steady pattern of repurchase.

不，自九月以來，我們一直在穩步購買股票。在此之前，我們更多的是投機性地購買它們，但從那時起，我們就有了穩定的回購模式。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Lori, when you think about leverage to maybe better times and the extra dollars, is that dollar to $12 -- I'm sorry, is the extra dollar per share to $12 kind of evenly split between the Acetyl Chain and EM? And what do you think needs to happen in terms of those segments to sort of get that extra push?

洛里，當你考慮利用槓桿來獲得更好的收益和額外的美元時，那一美元兌 12 美元——對不起，每股額外的一美元兌 12 美元是不是在乙醯鍊和 EM 之間平均分配的？您認為需要在這些領域做些什麼才能獲得額外的推動力？

Yes, Mike, I think that's right. The -- I would say it's pretty much evenly split between acetyls and EM. We don't expect any year-on-year growth obviously in Acetate Tow. So in acetyls, that growth -- of course, we're already assuming no impact from Clear Lake, but that growth really probably comes from tightness in the market and improved pricing into next year. In EM, I would say it comes from volume with no destocking and starting to move closer to a return to normalcy in terms of market conditions and demand.

是的，麥克，我認為是這樣。我會說乙醯基和 EM 之間的比例幾乎是均等的。我們預期醋酸絲束的銷售不會有明顯的年成長。因此，對於乙醯基而言，這種增長——當然，我們已經假設 Clear Lake 不會對其產生影響，但這種增長實際上可能來自市場緊張和明年價格上漲。在新興市場，我想說，這來自於沒有去庫存的成交量，市場狀況和需求開始接近恢復正常。

Right. And then in terms of acquisitions, given that it is an area that could boost earnings next year, any thoughts on the environment size? Where do you think the opportunities are focused on going forward?

正確的。然後就收購而言，考慮到這是一個可以提高明年獲利的領域，您對環境規模有何看法？您認為未來的機會集中在哪裡？

Yes. So if you look at our use of cash, first -- our first priority is really organic investment. And if you look, of course, this year, we are up against $400 million for CapEx. Next year, that goes up to $500 million, and that's really investment organically in ourselves, in growth projects and productivity projects. So that's kind of the first use of cash next year.

是的。因此，如果你看一下我們的現金使用情況，首先——我們的首要任務是真正的有機投資。當然，如果你看一下，今年我們的資本支出將達到 4 億美元。明年，這一數字將上升到 5 億美元，這實際上是對我們自己、對成長項目和生產力項目的有機投資。所以這是明年首次使用現金。

M&A, we continue to look at everything, bolt-on acquisitions to transformational. Look, we haven't found anything yet this year we wanted to invest in, quite frankly, because we have a lot of people wanting to get '18 kind of multiples when we're in a '19 price environment. So we're only going to do an M&A if it makes sense and it's the right price and it adds value to the shareholder, and we just haven't found that.

併購，我們將繼續關註一切，從附加收購到轉型。瞧，坦白說，我們今年還沒有找到任何我們想要投資的東西，因為當我們處於 19 年的價格環境中時，有很多人想要獲得 18 年那種倍數。因此，我們只會在合理、價格合適且能為股東增加價值的情況下才會進行併購，但我們還沒有找到這樣的併購方案。

So if we look forward into next year, we're going to continue to look for opportunity. Clearly, our main focus is on the EM side, trying to acquire additional molecules or different technologies or additional geographies that we want to be in. But quite frankly, we don't have anything lined up at this point. We just continue to look to see what's out there and talk to various companies that we think would be attractive.

因此，如果我們展望明年，我們將繼續尋找機會。顯然，我們的主要關注點是 EM 方面，試圖獲得我們想要進入的更多分子或不同技術或更多地區。但坦白說，目前我們還沒有安排任何事宜。我們只是繼續觀察市場上的情況，並與我們認為有吸引力的各種公司進行洽談。

Our next question comes from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

Lori, could you talk a little bit about maybe some specifics on the supply chain improvements you've got teed up in Engineering Materials? What sort of efforts are you making there? Just give some granularity on exactly what you're doing there?

洛里，您能否稍微談談您在工程材料方面所採取的供應鏈改進的一些具體措施？您在那裡做了哪些努力？只需詳細說明一下您在那裡做什麼？

Yes. So Bob, really, as we've grown our EM volumes and particularly, after we had the acquisitions over the last couple of years in nylon and TPE and a few other product lines, we really found we were straining our supply chain system because we've added a lot of SKUs. We've added a lot of small volume materials. And while this is good for earnings, it has been a strain on our supply chain system as it exists today, which is largely manual or self-spreadsheet base.

是的。所以 Bob，實際上，隨著我們的 EM 產量不斷增長，特別是在過去幾年收購了尼龍、TPE 和其他一些產品線之後，我們確實發現我們的供應鏈系統非常緊張，因為我們增加了很多 SKU。我們添加了很多小體積的材料。雖然這對盈利有利，但卻對我們現有的供應鏈系統造成了壓力，因為該系統主要是手動或自電子表格為基礎的。

And so really, we stepped back and said, "Okay, what do we need to do right now to make sure we continue to deliver high-quality product to our customers on time?" And so we've taken efforts over the last 6 to 9 months really to strengthen our existing systems. So we've added some people. We've added some processes to really continue to do it manually, but to do it more effectively and more efficiently.

因此，我們退一步思考：「好吧，我們現在需要做什麼才能確保我們繼續按時向客戶交付高品質的產品？」因此，在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡，我們一直在努力加強現有的系統。因此我們增加了一些人。我們添加了一些流程，以便真正繼續手動完成，但可以更有效、更有效率地完成。

Our next phase is really -- and that's kept us running well and kept us in good shape with our customers. But our next phase is really to try to automate that. So we're looking at more IT overlay, more use of, for example, better forecasting, using statistics versus the very manual process we have, an IT system that handles skew better, adding bar coding at our site where we don't have it to make this all more automated. And so that effort is going on now, Phase 2. We're working with a consultant to really identify the systems and the pathway to do that. And that should be completed over the next 12 to 18 months.

我們的下一階段是真正的—這讓我們保持良好的營運並與客戶保持良好的關係。但我們的下一階段其實是嘗試實現自動化。因此，我們正在考慮更多的 IT 覆蓋，更多地使用，例如，更好的預測，使用統計數據而不是我們現有的手動流程，一個可以更好地處理偏差的 IT 系統，在我們沒有條碼的站點添加條碼，以使這一切更加自動化。目前這項工作正在進行中，即第二階段。我們正在與顧問合作，以真正確定實現這一目標的系統和途徑。這項工作將在未來 12 到 18 個月內完成。

Got you. And could you give us, on the acetic acid side, maybe a look around the world in terms of operating rates? And I'm particularly curious in China. I know you guys have talked in the past about maybe seeing a few more plants there might come out of the market and help tighten things. Where does that stand these days? And I guess I saw your main rival there is thinking about adding 1 million ton plant in China. So what's sort of the outlook you guys see there?

明白了。您能否從乙酸方面介紹一下全球的營運率情況？我對中國特別好奇。我知道你們過去曾談論過，也許會看到更多的植物退出市場並有助於收緊市場。如今情況如何？我想，我看到你們的主要競爭對手正在考慮在中國增設 100 萬噸的工廠。那你們認為那裡的前景是什麼樣的呢？

So I think if you look over the last few years, we've seen a few plants come out for environmental and other reasons in China. We haven't really seen any build. As we have, we've seen a few people, maybe crude capacity a bit. But I'd say volume supply has been flat to maybe slightly declining in Asia and really, around the world. We also saw the announcement obviously that would take some time to get built, and maybe I'll ask Todd to comment more specifically. But generally, I'd say we've seen supply be fairly stable.

所以我認為，如果你回顧過去幾年，我們會看到中國出於環境和其他原因建立了一些工廠。我們實際上還沒有看到任何建築物。正如我們所見，我們已經見過一些人，可能有點粗略的能力。但我想說的是，亞洲乃至全球的供應量一直持平，甚至略有下降。我們也看到公告顯然需要一些時間才能完成，也許我會請托德更具體地評論一下。但整體而言，我認為供應量相當穩定。

Now in '18, there was a lot of outages in the industry, which helped tighten supply a bit. This year, we've not seen as many outages. So going forward, again, other than our expansion in Clear Lake, [now the] one that's just been announced, we haven't seen any other builds going on. And quite frankly, the economics for most people haven't supported builds other than the kinds of things we've been able to do with capacity creep and very economical builds versus greenfield builds.

現在到了 2018 年，行業內出現了許多停產現象，這導致供應略微緊張。今年，我們還沒有遇到過這麼多的停電事件。因此，展望未來，除了我們剛剛宣布的 Clear Lake 擴建項目外，我們還沒有看到任何其他建設正在進行中。坦白說，對大多數人來說，經濟狀況並不支持建設，除了我們能夠透過產能攀升和非常經濟的建設而非綠地建設所做的事情之外。

So Todd, do you want to...

那麼托德，你想…

Yes, Bob. Hey, it's Todd Elliott. We're tracking with our reconfiguration project in Clear Lake. Of course, we're adding about 800,000 tons there in Clear Lake by 2022. So permits in place, both for that as well as the methanol expansion plan for Clear Lake. So that tracks. That will, we think, be the first world-scale best technology unit that hits the marketplace in the near term. So we're tracking towards that date.

是的，鮑伯。嘿，我是托德·埃利奧特。我們正在追蹤 Clear Lake 的重新配置項目。當然，到 2022 年，我們將在 Clear Lake 增加約 80 萬噸。因此，許可證已經到位，既適用於該項目，也適用於 Clear Lake 的甲醇擴建計劃。如此追踪。我們認為，這將是近期內第一個進入市場的世界級最佳技術單位。因此我們正在追蹤該日期。

More specifically to your question, today, if you just look at utilization rates, I think you were focused mainly on China. Of course, '18, we saw utilization rates around the world push up into the 90% range, both globally as well as in China. China fell down to the probably under 70% utilization rates for most of this year. We saw that nudge up towards the end of Q3. We would call utilization in China around 70%. And then towards the end of Q3, probably around 75%. So we actually saw some improvement. Some of that was supply related due to some supply disruptions as well as this improved demand prior to the Chinese national holiday.

更具體地回答您的問題，今天，如果您只看利用率，我認為您主要關注的是中國。當然，18年，我們看到世界各地的利用率都上升到了90%左右，無論是在全球還是在中國。今年大部分時間，中國的使用率都跌至70%以下。我們在第三季末看到了這一趨勢的上升。我們認為中國的利用率約為70%。到第三季末，大概會達到 75% 左右。所以我們確實看到了一些改善。其中一些與供應有關，因為一些供應中斷以及中國國慶節前需求增加。

So a little bit better trading conditions in China at the end of Q3. We also saw pricing move up at the end of the quarter. I think the question now is, is that sustainable? We're watching that, of course, as we -- as we're into Q4 and certainly looking for better conditions into the new year, really a main focus on demand recovery.

因此，第三季末中國的貿易條件會略有改善。我們也看到本季末價格上漲。我認為現在的問題是，這是否可持續？當然，我們正在關注這一點，因為我們已經進入第四季度，並且肯定會期待新的一年會出現更好的情況，主要關注點是需求復甦。

Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

In acetyls, you drove down the inventories of the downstream products to make up for the shortfall. It sounds like you plan on rebuilding those inventories. Why not just continue with low inventories, at least into early next year, given the economic backdrop here?

在乙醯基方面，你們降低了下游產品的庫存以彌補短缺。聽起來您計劃重建這些庫存。考慮到目前的經濟背景，為什麼不至少在明年年初繼續保持低庫存？

So look, we do have lower working capital this year. That is certainly helping us. Typically, we have lower demand for VAM and emulsions in the fourth quarter for seasonality, anyway. So that's quite frankly why we felt comfortable driving down our inventory.

所以看，我們今年的營運資金確實較低。這確實對我們有幫助。通常情況下，由於季節性原因，我們在第四季度對 VAM 和乳液的需求較低。坦白說，這就是我們安心降低庫存的原因。

Look, it's just a choice point. Typically, we see a good pickup in first quarter. And there's little raw material costing right now, so we still think it makes sense to take advantage of that lower raw material cost and rebuild inventories to the extent we can in the fourth quarter.

看，這只是一個選擇點。通常，我們會看到第一季出現良好的回升。目前原材料成本很低，因此我們仍然認為利用較低的原材料成本並在第四季度盡可能地重建庫存是有意義的。

And maybe, John -- it's Todd again, just to add on. This shift to derivatives has been intentional this year. I mean we saw opportunities to move about 5% of our acetic acid mix downstream to either vinyl acetate or to emulsions. And I think we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're up over 15% year-over-year if you just look at our volume patterns downstream to those derivatives. We think that that's been a positive move that's allowed us to keep earnings up around $190 million all year, really since Q1, all the way through and maintaining margins above 20% on an EBITDA as a percentage of sales basis.

也許，約翰——又是托德，補充一下。今年轉向衍生性商品是有意為之。我的意思是，我們看到了將約 5% 的乙酸混合物轉移到下游乙酸乙烯酯或乳液的機會。我想我們在準備好的發言中提到過，如果你只看這些衍生性商品下游的交易量模式，我們的成長年增了 15% 以上。我們認為這是一個積極的舉措，它使我們能夠自第一季以來一直保持全年盈利約 1.9 億美元，並將 EBITDA 佔銷售額的利潤率保持在 20% 以上。

So that intentional shift to derivatives, we think, has been the right call from an activation perspective this year as we saw better opportunities in those trading conditions.

因此，我們認為，從活化的角度來看，今年有意轉向衍生性商品是正確的選擇，因為我們在這些交易條件下看到了更好的機會。

And then as a follow-up, in engineered plastics, you cited both light-weighting of traditional vehicles and EVs as growth -- both growth drivers here. Could you just remind us of the relative Celanese content in a typical traditional vehicle versus a -- I don't know if there is one, an average EV, so is content higher on the EV side?

然後作為後續問題，在工程塑膠方面，您將傳統汽車和電動車的輕量化都視為成長點——兩者都是成長動力。您能否提醒我們，典型的傳統汽車與普通電動車相比，塞拉尼斯的相對含量是多少？我不知道是否有這樣的汽車，那麼電動車方面的含量是否更高？

I would say -- so the opportunity for content is higher on the EV side because obviously you have the battery, which requires film, which we provide a lot of. There's also a lot more electrical connections in an EV vehicle than a traditional vehicle. So the opportunity for content is higher on EV, but frankly, EVs are still a very small percentage of the fleet. So we have a -- we're happy with the amount of content we currently have in EVs, but it's still a small percentage. So ICE vehicles are still highly important to us now and for the next many years.

我想說的是——電動車方面的內容機會更高，因為顯然你有電池，這需要膠片，而我們提供了很多膠片。與傳統汽車相比，電動車的電氣連接也多得多。因此，電動車上的內容機會更高，但坦白說，電動車在汽車總數中所佔比例仍然很小。因此，我們對目前電動車中的內容數量感到滿意，但這仍然只佔很小的比例。因此，現在以及未來幾年，ICE 汽車對我們來說仍然非常重要。

The good news there, as we continue to have good penetration in auto, we continue to increase the amount of content that we have in vehicles. You might have seen the comment that we've grown more than 11% annual growth rate in the amount of kilograms per vehicle. Now about 2/3 of that actually comes from our M&A, and that's why we did the M&A to acquire nylon and TPE to have that opportunity to penetrate more on vehicles, about 1/3 from our kind of legacy materials.

好消息是，隨著我們在汽車領域的滲透率不斷提高，我們將繼續增加汽車中的內容數量。您可能已經看到這樣的評論：我們每輛車的重量年增長率超過 11%。現在，其中約 2/3 實際上來自我們的併購，這就是我們進行併購的原因，以收購尼龍和 TPE，從而有機會在車輛領域進一步滲透，約 1/3 來自我們的傳統材料。

Obviously, volume is a metric. We're also very important on what is the value of the materials we're putting in vehicles because we want to be contributing high value, high margin, obviously, polymers into vehicles. So we're looking at both.

顯然，體積是一個指標。我們也非常重視汽車所用材料的價值，因為我們希望為汽車提供高價值、高利潤的聚合物。因此我們正在研究兩者。

But again, all of the trends, light-weighting, avoidance of paints because of emissions or odor, our durability, replacement of other plastics for functionality, these are all important trends, both in ICE and EV.

但同樣，所有這些趨勢，輕量化、因排放或氣味而避免使用油漆、我們的耐用性、用其他塑料替代功能性，這些都是重要的趨勢，無論是在 ICE 還是 EV 領域。

Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

A question on acetyls. Looks like you pushed more acid into China, and then in the Western world, you diverted more volumes to VAM and emulsions. Is that a strategy sort of going forward? You had a similar strategy last quarter. And what is the future of Singapore plant? You talked about rationalization in Asia. So what's the future of Singapore plant, especially in light of the new capacity announced by BP?

關於乙醯基的一個問題。看起來你向中國輸送了更多的酸，然後在西方世界，你又將更多的酸轉移到 VAM 和乳劑上。這是一種前進的策略嗎？上個季度你們也採取了類似的策略。新加坡工廠的未來又如何呢？您談到了亞洲的合理化。那麼新加坡工廠的未來會怎樣，特別是考慮到 BP 宣布的新產能？

Yes. So thanks, P.J. So really, our strategy in acetyls is to follow the money. So if you look at second quarter, we actually pulled volume out of China into the Western Hemisphere where acetic acid pricing was better. We pulled it into VAM, and other derivatives where pricing was better.

是的。所以謝謝你，P.J. 所以實際上，我們在乙醯基方面的策略是追隨金錢。因此，如果你看一下第二季度，我們實際上將產量從中國轉移到了西半球，因為那裡的醋酸價格更優惠。我們將其納入 VAM 以及其他定價更優惠的衍生性商品中。

As Todd referred to earlier, we've actually seen an increase in pricing in Asia, especially here at the end of the quarter. And demand for volume, so we actually move more volume back into China, move volume out of Europe where we saw a real softening in the third quarter. And as we started to see softening in the Americas, move volume out as well. So we're really -- that is our business model, which is to have the flexibility and capability to move our molecules around between regions and between acetic acid and derivatives in order to maximize our returns, and that's how we deliver pretty stable Acetyl Chain returns.

正如托德之前提到的，我們實際上已經看到亞洲的價格上漲，尤其是在本季末。並且對數量有需求，因此我們實際上將更多的數量轉移回中國，將數量轉移出歐洲，我們在第三季度看到了真正的疲軟。當我們開始看到美洲經濟疲軟時，交易量也隨之減少。所以我們實際上 - 這就是我們的商業模式，即具有靈活性和能力，可以在不同地區以及乙酸和衍生物之間移動我們的分子，以最大化我們的回報，這就是我們提供相當穩定的乙醯鏈回報的方式。

As far as Singapore, I mean we're still working through that. Obviously, with the announced expansion in Clear Lake, we said we'll take capacity out of Asia. We are still looking to see how everything develops in terms of pricing in China, pricing in Singapore. Obviously, IMO 2020 and the impact on pricing for fuel oil could have an impact around that decision. So we are still preserving our options in both cases until we see where the economics lead us.

就新加坡而言，我的意思是我們仍在努力解決這個問題。顯然，隨著清湖工廠擴建計畫的宣布，我們表示將把產能從亞洲轉移出去。我們仍在關注中國和新加坡的定價情況如何發展。顯然，IMO 2020 及其對燃油價格的影響可能會對該決定產生影響。因此，在了解經濟狀況將如何發展之前，我們仍將保留在這兩種情況下的選擇。

And a question for Scott. Scott, you did a $275 million buyback. You're on pace to buy $1 billion worth of stock. It looks like the tuck-in acquisitions aren't quite there. So can you give us an update on the overall M&A strategy? There is some talk about strategic splits or an R&D transaction. So can you talk about that and generally sort of the ongoing consolidation in the industry?

還有一個問題想問史考特。史考特，你進行了 2.75 億美元的回購。您正準備購買價值 10 億美元的股票。看起來，這些收購還未達到預期效果。那麼您能否向我們介紹一下整體併購策略的最新情況？有一些關於策略拆分或研發交易的討論。那麼，您能談談這個問題以及該行業正在進行的整合的整體情況嗎？

Yes. Let me hit the buyback question first, P.J., and then I'll let Lori comment broadly on M&A. So we did $275 million in the quarter. That was at an average price around $113. We did -- we've done $775 million for the year at an average price between $105 and $106. That's kind of where we sit when we finished the quarter. We expect to finish at $1 billion as I said earlier.

是的。P.J.，讓我先談談回購問題，然後讓 Lori 對併購問題進行廣泛的評論。因此我們本季的營收為 2.75 億美元。平均價格約為 113 美元。我們確實做到了——今年我們的收入為 7.75 億美元，平均價格在 105 美元到 106 美元之間。這就是我們本季結束時的狀況。正如我之前所說，我們預計最終銷售額將達到 10 億美元。

We're going to be opportunistic with that cash flow. We are increasing CapEx. Organic investment is our priority for extra cash. We're taking CapEx up. We're going to finish around $400 million this year. We'll take that up to $500 million next year, possibly even a little more than that as we have attractive projects. And that's always going to be our first choice. Then we look at bolt-on M&A. In this environment, we have not seen people really being overly willing to sell in a more depressed economic environment. And so we've repurposed that cash towards buybacks, and we'll continue to do that opportunistically.

我們將利用這筆現金流來把握機會。我們正在增加資本支出。有機投資是我們獲取額外現金的首要任務。我們正在提高資本支出。我們今年將完成約 4 億美元。明年我們將把這一數字提高到 5 億美元，甚至可能更高，因為我們有很有吸引力的項目。這永遠是我們的首選。然後我們來看看附加併購。在這種環境下，我們還沒有看到人們在更低迷的經濟環境下真正過於願意出售。因此，我們將這些現金重新用於回購，我們將繼續抓住機會這樣做。

Yes. And a transformational M&A, I mean I know there's been a lot in the press, and many of you have written about it and taken certain positions. I think correctly, many of you said you weren't surprised by a discussion of transformational M&A. And I think we've been very clear in here, and Mark before me, about we will continue to pursue whatever form of M&A is the most value added to the shareholder.

是的。至於轉型併購，我的意思是，我知道媒體對此有很多報道，你們中的許多人也對此進行了報道並採取了某些立場。我認為是正確的，你們中的許多人表示對於轉型併購的討論並不感到驚訝。我認為我們已經非常明確地表示過，在我之前馬克也表示過，我們將繼續尋求任何形式的併購，為股東創造最大的價值。

Look, we regularly use advisers to help us evaluate options. It's an ongoing activity to -- for us. That hasn't changed. And quite frankly, there's really no change in our philosophy around whether or not it's attractive to split the company. If at some point in time it becomes attractive to do a split because we've done other activities, we would consider doing that. But it is still our opinion that to split the company as it is today really wouldn't add value to the shareholder because of the dissynergies associated with the split and what we see as not much value uplift just from having a split short of some sort of other transformational activity.

你看，我們經常聘請顧問來幫助我們評估選擇。對我們來說，這是一項持續的活動。這一點沒有改變。坦白說，對於拆分公司是否具有吸引力，我們的理念實際上沒有任何改變。如果在某個時間點，由於我們已經完成了其他活動，拆分變得有吸引力，我們就會考慮這樣做。但我們仍然認為，像現在這樣拆分公司實際上不會為股東增加價值，因為拆分會產生不協同效應，而且我們認為，如果沒有某種其他轉型活動，拆分不會帶來太大的價值提升。

Our next question comes from the line of Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲‧菲舍爾 (Duffy Fischer)。

Just want to dig in a little deeper. You called out disappointing joint ventures in the EM segment. Can you kind of walk through Saudi and Korea and Japan? And what are you seeing there that's disappointing? Is it structural? Is it just macro? Maybe kind of tease some of that out.

只是想深入挖掘一下。您指出新興市場領域的合資企業令人失望。能介紹一下沙烏地阿拉伯、韓國和日本嗎？您看到什麼令人失望的事嗎？它是結構性的嗎？這只是宏嗎？也許可以弄清楚其中的一些問題。

Yes. So I -- look, I think the -- let me start with Saudi with our Ibn Sina joint venture. We had indicated last quarter that we expected about a $10 million uplift from Ibn Sina this quarter versus second quarter coming out of the turnaround in Ibn Sina. We actually only got about $4 million, so a couple of things there. One is we have a little bit of residual turnaround expense that still hit the books in third quarter, and the other thing is we had a GAAP tax rate adjustment that we booked this quarter. So we didn't get everything we wanted out of Ibn Sina this quarter.

是的。所以我 — — 看，我認為 — — 讓我從沙特與伊本西納合資企業開始。我們在上個季度曾表示，由於 Ibn Sina 業務的扭虧為盈，我們預計本季 Ibn Sina 的銷售額將比第二季增加約 1,000 萬美元。我們實際上只得到了大約 400 萬美元，所以那裡有幾件事。一是我們在第三季仍有少量剩餘週轉費用計入帳面，二是本季我們進行了 GAAP 稅率調整。因此，本季我們並沒有從伊本西納那裡得到我們想要的一切。

Also if we move to the POM joint ventures, what I would say is as we've really worked to move POM and as we've seen challenges in POM pricing with the downturn in autos, our joint ventures have suffered as well and maybe even more so than our own volumes. So we've not seen the returns from those joint ventures that we enjoyed, for example, say, in 2018.

此外，如果我們轉向 POM 合資企業，我想說的是，由於我們確實努力推動 POM 發展，並且隨著汽車行業的低迷，我們看到了 POM 定價面臨的挑戰，我們的合資企業也受到了影響，甚至可能比我們自己的產量受到的影響更大。因此，我們還沒有從那些合資企業中獲得回報，例如 2018 年的回報。

But I would say, it's generally reflective of general market conditions for the products that they make and the regions that they make are more so than anything specifically around the operations of the joint venture.

但我想說，它通常反映的是他們生產的產品和生產地區的整體市場狀況，而不是合資企業營運的具體情況。

Okay. And then in Tow, with the shutdown of the Mexican plant happening this quarter, what's the impact of that on earnings? And then what should we see when we come out of that from kind of increased earnings on the backside? And when will that hit? Will that hit squarely in Q1? Or will we have to wait a little bit for that to flow through?

好的。那麼，由於本季墨西哥工廠關閉，這對收益有何影響？那麼，當我們從底層收益增加中看到什麼呢？那什麼時候會發生呢？這會在第一季產生直接影響嗎？或者我們需要等待一段時間才能讓它流過去？

Yes. So Ocotlán will shut down at the end of this month, as we had discussed earlier. There was about $100 million to $110 million of costs that came with that shutdown, $10 million for personnel and another $95 million of noncash items. So really accelerated depreciation and impairment. So we'll see those hit this year.

是的。因此，正如我們之前討論過的，Ocotlán 將於本月底關閉。這次停工造成的成本約為 1 億至 1.1 億美元，其中 1,000 萬美元用於人員開支，另外 9,500 萬美元用於非現金項目。因此確實加速了折舊和減損。因此我們將在今年看到這些影響。

That shutdown and the savings that come with it going forward make up a significant portion of the $50 million of productivity we needed to see to maintain flat earnings in Acetate Tow going forward. So what I would say is given that and the market dynamics, I would expect Acetate Tow going forward, so next year, to look very similar to what it did this year because these savings are already baked into that.

這次停產以及隨之而來的節省佔了我們需要實現的 5000 萬美元生產力的很大一部分，以保持醋酸絲束未來收益平穩。因此，我想說的是，考慮到這一點和市場動態，我預計醋酸絲束的未來走勢，也就是明年的走勢，將與今年非常相似，因為這些節省已經被計入了。

Our next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess first off, back to the 2020 guidance, Lori. How would you have us think about quarterly phasing as we think about 2020? And related to that, how are we thinking about volumes at the low end of guidance? How would that shake out by the 2 core segments, EM and AC?

我想首先，回到 2020 年的指導方針，洛里。當我們考慮 2020 年時，您希望我們如何考慮季度分階段實施？與此相關，我們如何看待指導低端的交易量？EM 和 AC 這兩個核心部分將如何發揮作用？

Yes. So in -- look, I wouldn't -- we haven't really looked at it by quarter, so I would assume quarterly volumes tend to follow what has been -- had been our historical patterns for quarterly earnings. I wouldn't think that's much different. We see some fourth quarter seasonality. We usually see some down in the first quarter for China. I mean I will just look to the past really for how the quarters tend to the bake out. We don't see that being very different this year.

是的。所以，看起來，我不會——我們並沒有真正按季度研究它，所以我假設季度交易量傾向於遵循我們季度收益的歷史模式。我認為這不會有太大的不同。我們看到第四季的一些季節性現象。我們通常會看到中國第一季的經濟成長下降。我的意思是，我只是會回顧過去，看看各季度的走勢如何。我們認為今年的情況不會有太大不同。

I mean obviously, we start to -- we see these full year impacts of some of the expansion projects we've done, so that has some volume uptick in the Acetyl Chain. But we should also start seeing some volume impacts as well as some productivity impacts from some of the new projects we've done in EM, so the new compounding lines that we've just completed in Nanjing and Suzhou.

我的意思是，顯然，我們開始——我們看到我們所做的一些擴建項目對全年的影響，因此乙醯基鏈的產量有所上升。但是，我們也應該開始看到我們在 EM 中完成的一些新項目對產量和生產力的影響，因此我們剛剛在南京和蘇州完成了新的複合生產線。

So I would -- typically, we see increases in EM of kind of mid- to high-single digits; acetate, a little bit lower than that, a couple of percent. I wouldn't say that's a lot different next year. A lot of what we're seeing in terms of what's baked into the 2020 outlook is just similar markets to this year, the absence of Clear Lake and really productivity and cash deployment, so the things within our control.

因此，通常我們會看到 EM 的成長幅度在中高個位數之間；醋酸鹽的增幅略低一些，只有幾個百分點。我不會說明年會有很大不同。就 2020 年前景而言，我們看到的許多情況與今年的市場類似，沒有 Clear Lake，也沒有真正的生產力和現金部署，所以這些都在我們控制範圍內。

Okay. And then in terms of the destocking comments you made specific to EM and Europe, do you see that sort of phasing through as we enter 4Q? Or do you think -- still think that there is going to be some residual destocking with -- specific to autos for fourth quarter in EM?

好的。然後，就您針對新興市場和歐洲所發表的去庫存評論而言，您是否認為進入第四季度後這種趨勢會逐步顯現？或者您認為 - 仍然認為新興市場第四季將出現一些針對汽車的剩餘去庫存？

No. Look, I really think if we look at fourth quarter, what we're seeing is pretty typical of the seasonality we see. I mean China, as an example, if we look at our order books in October versus July, China is up about 2%. That's pretty typical that we see China come up in the fourth quarter and have good demand in advance of Chinese New Years in the first quarter. On the other hand, the U.S. and Europe are flat to slightly down across the sectors, which, again, is also fairly typical from a seasonal basis.

不。看，我真的認為，如果我們看一下第四季度，我們所看到的是相當典型的季節性。以中國為例，如果我們查看 10 月與 7 月的訂單情況，就會發現中國的訂單增加了約 2%。這是很典型的現象，我們看到中國在第四季度出現成長，並且在第一季農曆新年之前有良好的需求。另一方面，美國和歐洲各行業的經濟表現持平或略有下降，從季節性角度來看，這也是相當典型的。

So I don't really see a lot more destocking occurring. Like we said, we saw it really in Europe as a result of the really severe decline in auto in the last quarter. But we really -- every other signal is that we're really -- we've really seen the destocking occur in all of the other sectors, and so we don't expect destocking to occur in fourth quarter. But again, we will see some lower volume outside of China associated with just seasonality, both in acetyls and EM.

因此，我實際上並不認為會出現更多的去庫存現象。正如我們所說的，由於上個季度汽車銷量嚴重下滑，我們在歐洲確實看到了這種情況。但我們確實——所有其他訊號都表明——我們確實看到所有其他行業都出現了去庫存現象，因此我們預計第四季度不會出現去庫存現象。但同樣，我們會看到中國以外地區的乙醯基和 EM 的銷量會因季節性因素而下降。

Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Could you flesh out a little bit more detail what you're thinking about for longer-term optionality for Acetate Tow? Or what -- to what degree the degrees of freedom there are more limited than you thought initially?

您能否更詳細闡述您對醋酸絲束長期選擇權的看法？或者——那裡的自由度在多大程度上比你最初想像的更受限制？

And secondly, can you update your thinking about opportunities to pull forward productivity and working capital efficiency gains in 2020, 2021?

其次，您能否更新一下您對 2020 年和 2021 年提高生產力和營運資本效率的機會的看法？

Yes. So look, I mean Acetate Tow, I think we feel confident going into 2020 of our ability to maintain relatively flat earnings. We do see pressure on volumes as we've seen, quite frankly, a slowing down a little bit, especially in China where, in fact, China recently we've actually seen growth in cigarette demand.

是的。所以，我的意思是，醋酸絲束，我認為我們有信心進入 2020 年，我們有能力保持相對平穩的收益。坦白說，我們確實看到了銷售壓力，銷量有所放緩，尤其是在中國，事實上，最近我們看到中國的香菸需求有所增長。

So we do expect continuing volume and price declines in Acetate Tow. But with the Ocotlán's closure, with other productivity, we still see and expect that to be able to maintain flat certainly through 2020.

因此，我們確實預期醋酸絲束的產量和價格將持續下降。但隨著奧科特蘭礦場的關閉以及其他產能的提升，我們仍然看到並預計到 2020 年產量肯定能夠保持平穩。

Yes. And then on productivity and working capital, Laurence, I think a lot of the investments that we're making as we increase organic investment, a lot of those are tied to revenue generation, but it's also tied to productivity and working capital. So for example, we've talked about the need to invest more in Engineered Materials in Asia. That improves our supply chain. It also lowers our overall inventory level.

是的。然後關於生產力和營運資本，勞倫斯，我認為我們在增加有機投資時所做的許多投資都與創收有關，但也與生產力和營運資本有關。例如，我們討論了在亞洲加大工程材料投資的必要性。這改善了我們的供應鏈。這也降低了我們的整體庫存水準。

So a lot of this is very consistent with the investments that we're making. We've aggressively been working capital now for a while. You've seen that reflected in the improvement of free cash flow. Productivity is -- we've seen an uptick in productivity this year. We expect that cost reduction, productivity to continue into 2020 because we're really focused on what we can control: what are the controllable actions that are unique to Celanese that are going to drive the earnings growth from '19 to '20 because as we said earlier, we're just not expecting fundamental improvements in our end markets.

因此，這在很大程度上與我們所做的投資非常一致。一段時間以來，我們一直在積極地運作資本。您已經看到自由現金流的改善反映了這一點。生產力是──我們今年看到了生產力的上升。我們預計成本降低和生產力提高將持續到 2020 年，因為我們真正關注的是我們可以控制的事情：塞拉尼斯獨有的可控行動是什麼，這些行動將推動 2019 年至 2020 年的盈利增長，因為正如我們之前所說，我們並不期望終端市場出現根本性的改善。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

You've indicated about a $500 million capital expenditure budget for 2020. I guess 2 parts, could you talk through how much of that is growth versus cost-reduction projects and maintenance? And then more broadly, that's about double what the company was spending from 2014 through '17. Should we think of $500 million as a new normal level for the company? Or would you expect that level to come back down in the out-years as you complete your expansions in Texas, for example?

您曾表示 2020 年的資本支出預算約為 5 億美元。我想是兩個部分，您能談談其中有多少是成長，有多少是成本削減項目和維護嗎？更廣泛地說，這大約是該公司 2014 年至 2017 年支出的兩倍。我們是否應該將 5 億美元視為公司的新常態水準？或者您是否預計，隨著您在德克薩斯州的擴張完成，該水平將在未來幾年回落？

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. Yes, so it is about double. Let me characterize it for you. So if we -- if I look at historically where we spend, we spend roughly $200 million a year for EHS and what I call maintain-margin projects. So reliability, [realigning] of equipment, things we need to do just to keep the current assets running and running consistent with good safety standards and environmental compliance. So that's $200 million a year.

是的。謝謝，凱文。是的，所以大約是兩倍。讓我為您描述一下它。因此，如果我們 — — 如果我回顧一下我們的歷史支出情況，我們每年在 EHS 和我所謂的維持利潤項目上花費約 2 億美元。因此，我們需要做的就是確保設備的可靠性和重新調整，以保持當前資產的運行，並符合良好的安全標準和環境合規性。所以每年就是2億美元。

We spend another $200 million a year at -- like this year, $200 million a year in productivity and revenue-generation projects. So things like the Clear Lake expansion, things like improving energy efficiency of boilers, things that give us a high-quality greater than 20% return. As we go up to $500 million, all of that growth is really in productivity and rev gen. So it's the Clear Lake expansion project.

我們每年另外花費 2 億美元——例如今年，每年 2 億美元提高生產力和創收項目。因此，像 Clear Lake 擴建、提高鍋爐能源效率等措施都為我們帶來了超過 20% 的高品質回報。當我們達到 5 億美元時，所有的成長實際上都體現在生產力和轉速上。這就是 Clear Lake 擴建計畫。

If we -- so I would say $200 million is kind of our base level, run and maintain capital. And then everything you see above $200 million is really towards productivity and revenue generation. Just to put it on that perspective, our return on our total portfolio, including kind of those nonreturn base projects, is greater than 20%. So we still have great opportunity to invest in ourselves in value-added projects that will be a great return for the shareholder.

如果我們——那麼我想說 2 億美元是我們的基本水準、營運和維持資本。然後，你所看到的所有超過 2 億美元的資金實際上都用於提高生產力和創造收入。從這個角度來看，我們的整個投資組合（包括那些無回報基礎項目）的回報率超過 20%。因此，我們仍然有很大機會投資增值項目，這將為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

If I go past 2020, so 2020, $500 million, if we go into '21, '23, we actually may see levels above $500 million as we look at our Chinese localization projects, building additional EM capacity in China, other productivity and rev-gen products around the globe. But I would say kind of post that period of growth that we've outlined, we would return to the approximately less -- the less than $400 million level of ongoing capital.

如果我超過 2020 年，我們實際上可能會看到超過 5 億美元的水平，因為我們著眼於我們的中國本地化項目，在中國建立額外的 EM 產能，其他生產力和全球的 rev-gen 產品。但我想說，在我們概述的那個增長期之後，我們的持續資本將回到大約低於 4 億美元的水平。

Great. That's very helpful. And secondly, if I may, I want to ask you to just talk through the outages in a little bit more detail. I saw in your management remarks last night that you had brought Singapore down for maintenance, I think, just prior to the incident at Clear Lake. Did you have other outages? And what's your latest thinking on when the CO unit might restart at Clear Lake?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。其次，如果可以的話，我想請您更詳細地談談停電事件。我從昨晚您的管理評論中看到，您曾要求新加坡號進行維護，我想，就在清湖事件發生之前。還有其他中斷嗎？您最近對 Clear Lake 二氧化碳裝置何時重啟有何看法？

Yes. So let me address Singapore first. So Singapore was a planned turnaround. The timing for the Singapore turnaround and the duration of the Singapore turnaround is tied to our CO producer's turnaround in Singapore. So we only have one source of CO in Singapore, and they had to take that unit on turnaround on a planned basis. And that really accounts for the duration of the outage in Singapore. So I would put that into the kind of normal operational bucket of events.

是的。我首先談談新加坡。因此，新加坡是一個有計劃的轉變。新加坡轉型的時間和持續時間與我們在新加坡的二氧化碳生產商的轉型有關。因此，我們在新加坡只有一個二氧化碳來源，他們必須按計劃對該單位進行週轉。這確實解釋了新加坡停電持續時間的原因。所以我會把它放入正常操作事件桶中。

Clearly, Clear Lake was an unplanned downtime. We've been working through the impacts of that outage. As of today, methanol is back at full rates, acid is restarted and really, at partial rates -- and we'll be a partial rate until we get the CO plan up, then we'll be up before the end of the week. And we continue on our CO repairs, which will put us back at full rates sometime within the fourth quarter.

顯然，Clear Lake 的停機是一次非計劃停機。我們一直在努力解決此次停電的影響。截至今天，甲醇產量已恢復全額生產，酸產量也已重新啟動，實際上，產量為部分產量——我們將保持部分產量，直到 CO 計劃啟動，然後我們將在本週末之前恢復產量。我們將繼續進行 CO 修復，這將使我們在第四季度的某個時候恢復全額營運。

Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, going back to BP's 1 million ton JV announcement, what do think they're seeing in China that you're not as you might rationalize some of your capacity in that region?

洛里，回到英國石油公司宣布的 100 萬噸合資企業，您認為他們在中國看到了什麼而您沒有看到的，因為您可能會合理化在該地區的部分產能？

So I'll ask Todd to comment, but as we've looked at that, I don't know that they're seeing anything we're not. What we do know is they have the demand for that much acetic acid in their own derivatives system. And apparently, as we have done with methanol and others, they have decided that being more integrated along their value chain will give them greater value. So we wouldn't actually expect any of that acetic acid to show up on the market. We expect that to be consumed in their own derivatives, again, based on our view, but Todd may have more color on that.

因此我會請托德發表評論，但正如我們所看到的，我不知道他們是否看到了我們沒有看到的東西。我們確實知道的是，他們在自己的衍生系統中需要那麼多的乙酸。顯然，正如我們對甲醇和其他產品所做的那樣，他們已經決定，提高其價值鏈的整合程度將為他們帶來更大的價值。所以我們實際上並不期望任何乙酸出現在市場上。根據我們的觀點，我們預計這些資金將用於他們自己的衍生品中，但托德可能對此有更多的了解。

Yes, Dave, it's Todd. We're just studying the news and trying to understand it better. And this was, at least as far as we can tell, an MOU announcement at this point. So it's early days in the project. It will take some time to work through the details, I'm sure, and all the work that would follow in terms of engineering, ultimately, time line of projects. As I said before, we're pleased that we're on track with our expansion in Clear Lake by 2022. So we'll -- we think we'll be first with this capability.

是的，戴夫，我是托德。我們只是在研究新聞並試圖更好地理解它。至少據我們所知，目前這只是一份諒解備忘錄公告。該項目目前還處於早期階段。我確信，需要花一些時間來解決細節問題，以及在工程方面需要完成的所有工作，最終是專案時間表。正如我之前所說，我們很高興能夠在 2022 年前順利完成 Clear Lake 的擴張計畫。因此我們認為我們將率先擁有這種能力。

I think Lori is right. I think this is largely an integration move, upstream PX, down through PTA and ultimately a polyester to service of the Chinese localized demand for polyester in the region. So we think it's largely an integrated announcement. It will have little effect on the merchant market.

我認為 Lori 是對的。我認為這在很大程度上是一種整合舉措，從上游的 PX 到下游的 PTA，最終到聚酯，以滿足中國地區對聚酯的本地化需求。因此我們認為這基本上是一個綜合公告。這對商家市場影響不大。

Got it. And just lastly, on Acetate Tow, any potential for a price increase, given perhaps, high supply/demand post the closing of your Mexico facility?

知道了。最後，關於醋酸絲束，考慮到墨西哥工廠關閉後供需關係緊張，價格有上漲的可能性嗎？

Yes. So we do believe in time as we rationalize, others rationalize in the industry, that there will be potential for a price increase. I mean quite frankly, what we see is for more transactional short-term contracts. We have been able to push through price increases for some of our longer-term contracts. We've seen price decline.

是的。因此，我們確實相信，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們和業內其他人的合理化，價格將有可能上漲。我的意思是，坦白說，我們看到的是更多的交易性短期合約。我們已經能夠推動部分長期合約的價格上漲。我們看到價格下降。

So it's about imbalance at the moment, but we certainly project going forward while there continue to be tension around price, we actually think the price environment will be fairly stable and at some point in the future, some opportunity to push price up.

因此，目前存在不平衡的情況，但我們預計，儘管價格繼續緊張，但我們實際上認為價格環境將相當穩定，並且在未來的某個時候，有機會推高價格。

Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great. I just wanted to go back to the portfolio questions. In the past, I guess, you had noted that the dissynergies had kind of come down to around $50 million a year from your prior estimate of $100 million. Have you continued to make progress on bringing those down? And if so how would you characterize that now at this point?

偉大的。我只是想回到投資組合問題。我想，您過去可能已經注意到，協同效應已經從您之前估計的 1 億美元下降到每年 5,000 萬美元左右。您是否在降低這些方面繼續取得進展？如果是的話，您現在會如何描述這一點？

Yes. So look, we continue to always look at how we can do this, but there is a certain amount of dissynergies, which is always going to exist if you're splitting into 2 companies. You have to have standup 2 management teams. You have to have 2 back offices. I mean there is always going to be a certain amount of dissynergies associated with that. So maybe let me ask Scott if he has any more specific comments.

是的。所以，我們一直在研究如何做到這一點，但存在一定程度的不協同效應，如果你拆分成兩家公司，這種不協同效應總是會存在的。你必須擁有 2 個獨立的管理團隊。你必須有 2 個後台辦公室。我的意思是，這總是會帶來一定程度的不協同效應。所以也許我可以問斯科特他是否還有更具體的評論。

Yes. I mean you're right. With that trajectory of statements that we've made in the past, $100 million down to $50 million, we continue to work it, work on the tax side of things, leakage, et cetera. So we have brought it down below $50 million, but I would say it's closer to $50 million than it is to 0.

是的。我的意思是你是對的。根據我們過去所做的聲明軌跡，將 1 億美元降至 5,000 萬美元，我們將繼續努力，解決稅收方面的問題、洩漏問題等等。因此，我們將其降至 5000 萬美元以下，但我想說它更接近 5000 萬美元，而不是 0。

Great. And just kind of understanding, when you think about China, what's it going to take for -- what are some of the markers you're looking for to see that there is an improvement in primary demand or at least a stabilization? Would it be inventory levels? Or anything else that we should be watching?

偉大的。並且，當您考慮中國時，您需要做什麼——您尋找哪些標誌來表明初級需求有所改善或至少趨於穩定？是庫存水準嗎？或者還有什麼值得我們關注的嗎？

Yes. Look, I think, as much as anything, we look at price volatility. I mean we're anxious to get further past this national holiday to see if demand returns prior to Chinese New Year. Obviously, the same factors affecting the rest of the globe, concerns about tariffs, concerns about global recession. These also impact China. But we're just looking for the signs of sustainable -- kind of sustainable demand lift to occur.

是的。看，我認為，我們最關注的是價格波動。我的意思是，我們急切地想看看這個國慶假期過後需求是否會在農曆新年前恢復。顯然，同樣的因素也影響著世界其他地區，對關稅的擔憂、對全球經濟衰退的擔憂。這些也對中國產生了影響。但我們只是在尋找可持續的跡象——某種可持續的需求提升。

I mean again, we saw an increase in Asia in the third quarter in volumes and price. It seems it's not greatly improving at the moment, but it's also not greatly declining. So we see that as somewhat favorable. But we need some sustainability in the response, which is probably what we haven't seen yet.

我的意思是，我們再次看到第三季亞洲的銷售和價格有所增長。目前看來，並沒有太大的改善，但也沒有太大的下降。因此我們認為這在某種程度上是有利的。但我們需要採取一些可持續的應對措施，這可能是我們尚未看到的。

Todd, anything you want to add?

托德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think that's right. In acetyls, we -- just like Lori said, we look at order books on a daily, weekly basis. Supply/demand, utilization trends are critical as it affects the pricing environment, raw materials, of course, be it methanol or olefins, MTO rates.

不。我認為那是對的。在乙醯基中，我們 — — 就像 Lori 所說的那樣，我們每天、每週都會查看訂單簿。供應/需求、利用趨勢至關重要，因為它影響定價環境、原材料（當然是甲醇或烯烴）、MTO 費率。

Your point on inventory levels, I'm sure that's the same across the whole of the company, both finished goods inventories on a customer side particularly. I mean so all those classical markers, those fundamentals are what track and watch all the time.

您提到的庫存水平，我相信整個公司的情況都是一樣的，尤其是客戶方面的成品庫存。我的意思是，所有這些經典標記、這些基本原理都是需要一直追蹤和觀察的。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering.

我們的下一個問題來自都鐸·皮克林的馬修·布萊爾。

The prepared comments mentioned Nanjing was running at lower rates due to a request from local authorities. Was this around air quality? And would you expect it to persist into the fourth quarter and 2020 as well?

準備好的評論中提到，南京因當地政府的要求而降低了運行費率。這是與空氣品質有關嗎？您預計這種趨勢會持續到第四季和 2020 年嗎？

Yes. No, you're exactly right, Matthew. So what we had and what all of industry had was a request by the Chinese government to reduce rates for air quality purposes in advance of the national holiday. Since then, they -- when we went back and asked to have that lifted, they were willing to do so I think, reflecting on our long relationship with them and their understanding of our business need. Since then, I think that's mostly been lifted through most of industry in the fourth quarter.

是的。不，你完全正確，馬修。因此，我們以及所有產業所面臨的是中國政府提出的在國慶日前降低空氣品質費率的要求。從那時起，當我們回去並要求解除該限制時，我認為他們願意這樣做，這反映了我們與他們的長期關係以及他們對我們業務需求的理解。自那時起，我認為第四季大部分行業的獲利能力已經得到提升。

So look, I expect it's going to continue from time to time in China. I would expect maybe it will happen again right before the Chinese New Years. That tends to be a pattern. So I think it will happen again. Right now, we're not seeing that being an impact on fourth quarter.

所以，我預計這種情況在中國還會持續下去。我預計這種事可能會在農曆新年前再次發生。這往往是一種模式。所以我認為它會再次發生。目前，我們還沒有看到這對第四季產生影響。

And the good news is we were able to ramp rates back up as needed, following the Clear Lake incident. So we worked with the team there and certainly, with the local government, and were allowed to run at full rates as we expected. And that was helpful to cover the -- from a network perspective, the loss of the Clear Lake capacity.

好消息是，在 Clear Lake 事件發生後，我們能夠根據需要重新提高費率。因此，我們與那裡的團隊以及當地政府進行了合作，並按照我們的預期獲得了全速運轉的許可。從網路角度來看，這有助於彌補 Clear Lake 容量的損失。

The only other thing to watch maybe late in the year is the winter season, heating season. I mean typically, depending on the energy profile and sources for energy production and as well as industrial activity, there can be curtailment activity towards the kind of late November, December time frame, depending on various conditions. So we'll watch that.

今年稍後唯一需要注意的事情可能是冬季、供暖季節。我的意思是，通常情況下，根據能源狀況和能源生產來源以及工業活動，在 11 月底或 12 月底左右可能會出現減產活動，具體取決於各種情況。所以我們會關注這一點。

Sounds good. And then your EM project wins last year rose about 47%. You're on a similar pace this year, but EM volumes are down about 5% this year. Could you just help me reconcile those 2 numbers? I mean I guess that implies your base business has seen some pretty significant volume declines. Is there anything changing in terms of the size of the profitability of the average project?

聽起來不錯。那麼，您去年的 EM 專案勝利就上升了約 47%。今年的速度也差不多，但新興市場的成交量卻下降了約 5%。你能幫我核對一下這兩個數字嗎？我的意思是，我猜這意味著你的基礎業務量已經出現了相當明顯的下降。就平均項目的獲利規模而言有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. So look, I would say the size of the average project, if you talk about volume, is less than it was. And it reflects the fact that we're doing more projects and more different types of projects. I think it's also important to realize that look, some -- these projects come in [different] buckets. I mean you have some that are very long-term-return projects. So for example, in the medical field and some of the auto, some of these are projects that continue to pay out for 5-plus years. And then you probably have another bucket that maybe you get 1 year from that or maybe 2 years. And then you have a number of them that are actually very transactional. So it's a project that moves volume, but it's a onetime move.

是的。所以，我想說，如果從數量上來說，現在的平均專案規模比以前小。這反映出我們正在進行更多專案以及更多不同類型的專案。我認為認識到這一點也很重要——這些項目來自[不同的]類別。我的意思是，你們有一些非常長期回報的項目。例如，在醫療領域和一些汽車領域，有些計畫的回報期會持續 5 年以上。然後你可能還有另一個儲存桶，也許你可以從中獲得 1 年或 2 年的時間。其中有許多實際上是非常具有交易性的。因此，這是一個移動量的項目，但它是一次性的移動。

So not all of these projects are things that pay out for 5 years. And so what you see is while we can have up to 15% growth from EM projects in a year's time frame, it could very well be that only 5% or something of those continue. And then of course, you have attrition normally from other projects rolling off as well as just other attrition. So I mean project wins is an important metric for us because it just says how good are we generating materials. But they are smaller this year because of the economic conditions, and we are seeing kind of more attrition in the base with slower GDP and slower demand around the world. So that all comes into play, but we still think it's important because this is what's allowing us to show the sequential quarter-on-quarter growth that we've shown in the last quarter. It's continuing to deliver these projects.

因此，並非所有這些項目都是能在 5 年內獲得回報的。因此，您會看到，雖然我們可以在一年的時間內從新興市場項目中獲得高達 15% 的成長，但很可能只有 5% 左右的成長能夠持續下去。當然，通常還會有來自其他專案以及其他專案的人員流失。所以我的意思是，專案勝利對我們來說是一個重要的指標，因為它表明我們生成的材料有多好。但由於經濟狀況不佳，今年的規模較小，而且隨著全球 GDP 和需求放緩，我們看到基礎人口的流失加劇。所以這一切都會發揮作用，但我們仍然認為這很重要，因為這使我們能夠顯示上一季的環比增長。它正在繼續實施這些項目。

And as we've referenced in our notes, we had a lot of great projects win this quarter. Now not all that -- that volume doesn't show up this quarter. It shows up -- many of those were long term with the medical project wins. We had some auto project wins. A lot of -- we have some 5G product wins. A lot of those will show up over the next 2 to 5 years, not necessarily next quarter.

正如我們在筆記中提到的，本季我們贏得了許多偉大的項目。現在並非全部——本季沒有出現這一數量。事實證明，其中許多都是長期的，並且獲得了醫療項目的勝利。我們贏得了一些汽車項目。很多——我們在一些 5G 產品上取得了勝利。其中許多將在未來2至5年內顯現，而不一定會在下個季度顯現。

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Sheehan with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 的 Jim Sheehan。

How should we think about plant turnaround costs in 2020 versus 2019?

我們該如何看待 2020 年與 2019 年的工廠週轉成本？

Yes, great question. So turnarounds in 2020, we actually see -- expect to be up about $50 million. Overall, we have a number of big turnarounds next year, including our joint venture methanol plant in Clear Lake, some of our POM units. So these are big units that only come up for turnaround every 3 to 4 years. So we do have a significant turnaround workload next year. But that's baked into our numbers. The additional productivity that we're delivering will help offset that, and that's already anticipated in the 2020 outlook that I gave you.

是的，很好的問題。因此，我們實際上看到了 2020 年的轉機——預計將增加約 5000 萬美元。總體而言，明年我們將有許多重大轉變，包括位於 Clear Lake 的合資甲醇工廠和一些 POM 裝置。所以這些大型單位每 3 至 4 年才會進行一次週轉。因此，明年我們的周轉工作量確實很大。但這已反映在我們的數據中。我們提供的額外生產力將有助於抵消這一影響，這在我向你們提供的 2020 年展望中已經有所預期。

And regarding the General Motors labor union strike, how are you thinking about automotive shutdowns and whether the impact this year will be normal or above normal?

關於通用汽車工會罷工，您如何看待汽車停產以及今年的影響是正常還是超出正常水平？

Yes. So for the GM specifically, that's not a big customer of ours. We didn't have a lot of exposure to GM, so we haven't seen much impact from that. Clearly, there are other autos that would have had a bigger impact.

是的。因此，對於通用汽車來說，這並不是我們的大客戶。我們對通用汽車的了解並不多，因此沒有看到太大的影響。顯然，其他汽車可能會產生更大的影響。

I don't know that we've seen that as a major impact going forward for us. I mean we tend to be spread across quite a lot. Obviously, we have a lot of auto in Europe that may be a bigger exposure. China, as we said, auto actually has picked up recently. Now I expect some consolidation of auto in China, but again, I think we're well positioned for that.

我不知道我們是否認為這會對我們未來產生重大影響。我的意思是我們的分佈範圍很廣。顯然，我們在歐洲擁有大量汽車，因此曝光度可能會更大。正如我們所說，中國汽車市場最近確實有所回升。現在我預計中國汽車業將出現一些整合，但我再次認為我們已經準備好了。

Our final question comes from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的最後一個問題來自美銀美林的 Matthew DeYoe。

Can you just walk a little bit through the buckets on the productivity gains of $0.50 then? Because if I recall from Duffy's question, you had mentioned part of that savings is going to go the savings from the closure in Mexico, and then you just mentioned part of that will go to offsetting the maintenance expense next year, which is already looking to maybe be offset by the $45 million in losses you're taking this year on Clear Lake. So kind of where are those $0.50 bucketing out? And then does that mean the net gains from productivity are less than $0.50?

那麼，您能否稍微介紹一下 0.50 美元的生產力收益呢？因為如果我記得達菲的問題，您曾提到部分節省將用於關閉墨西哥的節省，然後您剛才提到部分節省將用於抵消明年的維護費用，這筆費用可能已經被您今年在 Clear Lake 遭受的 4500 萬美元損失所抵消。那麼這些 0.50 美元都流向哪裡了呢？那麼這是否意味著生產力的淨收益不到 0.50 美元？

Yes. So well, no, no. I'd say -- well, no, the net gains -- this is net gain, is $0.50. So this actually, because of turnarounds and everything else, obviously it requires a much higher level of productivity than that. So this is net what we get of plus turnaround, plus productivity, et cetera, et cetera.

是的。那麼好吧，不，不。我想說——嗯，不，淨收益——這是淨收益，是 0.50 美元。因此，實際上，由於週轉和其他所有因素，這顯然需要比這更高的生產力。所以這是我們得到的淨值加上週轉率、加上生產力等等。

So where does it come from? So Ocotlán as well as Lebanon as well as other shutdowns that we've had and footprint management reduction, that goes into the productivity bucket. There's a bucket in there, which is we work very hard on energy and cost savings. In energy, like I said, boiler configurations, things to help lower energy usage, that goes into productivity. There's also raw material contracts and things we've done to buy forward or do things with raws to manage our raw material cost versus the spot market. That -- those, for example, go into productivity.

那麼它從何而來？因此，奧科特蘭、黎巴嫩以及我們所經歷的其他停工和足跡管理減少都進入了生產力領域。裡面有一個桶，表示我們在節能和節省成本方面付出了很大的努力。在能源方面，就像我說的，鍋爐配置有助於降低能源使用量，從而提高生產力。還有原材料合約以及我們採取的遠期購買或處理原材料的措施，以管理我們的原材料成本與現貨市場的成本。例如，這些都會提高生產力。

So I'd say those are the major buckets as well as just normal optimization and maintenance spend, optimization of personnel. We've done a lot, which you've seen show up in terms of rightsizing our organization and reorganizing for the most productive organization. You've seen some of the severance costs associated with that. So those are all buckets within productivity.

所以我想說這些是主要的方面，以及正常的最佳化和維護支出，人員優化。我們已經做了很多，您已經看到，我們在調整組織規模和重組為最俱生產力的組織方面取得了進展。您已經看到了與此相關的一些遣散費用。這些都是生產力範圍內的範疇。

Scott, do you have any other perspective on that?

史考特，你對此還有其他看法嗎？

No. I think that is it.

不。我認為就是這樣。

Okay. And then so my last one, I guess. Price was down about 2% sequentially and year-over-year in EM. I think you'd mentioned POM as being one part of weakness. But what are the other primary markets responsible for the softness? Is this competition or deflation in raws? And then on the latter comment, where are you seeing the primary savings in EM as your spread to raws has improved?

好的。我想，這就是我的最後一個了。新興市場的價格較去年同期分別下跌約 2%。我認為您提到過 POM 是弱點的一部分。但還有哪些主要市場導致了經濟疲軟呢？這究竟是競爭還是通貨緊縮？然後，關於後一條評論，隨著原材料價差的擴大，您認為新興市場的主要節省在哪裡？

Yes. A good bit of it, I would say, is mix. I mean in general, we've been able to hold our price in a declining raw material market. So that has helped us. But there, in a few of our materials, we've seen some mix impacts, for example, less medical, more LiBs or less LiBs, more general GUR. I mean so there's a few areas where that's happened, but I'd say it's more kind of the mix this year because in general we've been able to hold pricing despite a decline in raw materials across EM.

是的。我想說，其中很大一部分是混合的。我的意思是，總的來說，在原物料市場低迷的情況下，我們能夠維持價格。這對我們有幫助。但是，在我們的一些材料中，我們看到了一些混合影響，例如，醫療方面較少，鋰離子電池較多或鋰離子電池較少，通用電池組較多。我的意思是，有幾個領域發生了這種情況，但我想說，今年的情況更像是混合的，因為總的來說，儘管整個新興市場的原材料價格下跌，我們仍然能夠維持價格。

And then I guess, was organic volume growth in EM, what would you say -- or I guess, the better question is, how much did acquisitions contribute to EM volume growth on the quarter? Is that about 2% or something?

然後我想，新興市場的有機銷售成長是怎麼樣的，您會怎麼說？或者我想，更好的問題是，收購對本季新興市場銷售成長的貢獻有多大？大約是 2% 左右吧？

No. So volume growth on EM was up about 3%. I would say most -- all of that is organic. There wasn't a notable difference in terms of acquisition growth.

不。因此 EM 的交易量成長率約為 3%。我想說大多數——所有這些都是有機的。在收購成長方面並沒有顯著差異。

I was thinking year-over-year, sorry.

當時想的是逐年遞增，抱歉。

And that's all the acquisitions or the acquisitions, which happened a while ago, so.

這就是之前發生的所有收購。

Yes. I was just thinking year-over-year, but I can square that.

是的。我只是在考慮逐年變化，但我可以解決這個問題。

Mr. Kyrish, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

基里什先生，現在我想把發言權交還給您，請您發表最後評論。

Thank you, Christine. I would like to thank everybody for listening in today, and thank you to those who participated. As usual, we're around after the call for other questions. And Christine, you can close the call right after that.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。我要感謝大家今天的收聽，也感謝參與的人。像往常一樣，通話結束後我們會回答其他問題。克里斯汀，之後你就可以結束通話了。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。