塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Celanese Corporation's Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2019 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to your host, Chuck Kyrish. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興將會議交給主持人查克凱裡什 (Chuck Kyrish)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Chuck Kyrish, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. With me today are Lori Ryerkerk, Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer; and Todd Elliott, Senior Vice President, Acetyl Chain.

謝謝你，羅布。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2019年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Chuck Kyrish，是投資人關係副總裁兼財務長。今天與我一起的有執行長 Lori Ryerkerk、財務長 Scott Richardson 和 Acetyl Chain 高級副總裁 Todd Elliott。

Celanese Corporation distributed second quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared remarks about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday after market close. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

塞拉尼斯公司透過商業新聞發布了第二季度收益報告，並在昨日收盤後在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了關於本季度的準備好的評論。提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as the prepared comments document. Form 8-K reports containing all these materials have also been submitted to the SEC. Since we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll now open the line directly for your questions.

今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，可在新聞稿末尾以及準備好的評論文件中找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。由於我們昨天已經發表了準備好的評論，因此我們現在將直接開通熱線回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dave Begleiter -- David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自戴夫·貝格萊特（Dave Begleiter）——德意志銀行的大衛·貝格萊特（David Begleiter）。

Lori, just on your implied Q4 guidance, what's driving the expected improvement in Engineered Materials? And how much of improvement do you expect in that segment in that -- in Q4?

Lori，根據您對第四季的預測，是什麼推動了工程材料的預期改善？您預計第四季度該領域將有多少改善？

Thanks, David. If we look towards second half through third quarter into fourth quarter, we do see indications that kind of the acute destocking that we've seen in first and second quarter is unlikely to continue. And acetyls, although inventories are high, really represents only a few weeks, and we see some indications that there's some movement there.

謝謝，大衛。如果我們展望下半年、第三季和第四季度，我們確實看到跡象表明，我們在第一季和第二季看到的那種急劇去庫存現像不太可能持續下去。儘管乙醯基庫存很高，但實際上只代表了幾週的時間，我們看到一些跡象表明那裡有一些動靜。

On Engineered Materials, again, talking to some of our key customers, some of the folks and Tier 2s and Tier 3s in the supply chain, especially to automotive and things, we see indications that stock levels have pulled down quite significantly in the first half, and we don't expect that to continue. So we're not forecasting restocking, expecting to see demand going back to more normal levels. And we're suggesting that would have not as much seasonality than in fourth quarter because we've already seen the destocking occur this year.

關於工程材料，再次，我們與一些主要客戶、供應鏈中的一些人員和二級和三級供應商（特別是汽車和其他領域）進行了交談，我們發現有跡象表明上半年庫存水平已大幅下降，我們預計這種情況不會持續下去。因此，我們不會預測補貨，而是希望需求能夠恢復到更正常的水準。我們認為，季節性不會像第四季那麼明顯，因為我們已經看到今年出現了去庫存現象。

Just by way of evidence on that, if we look at our order book for July, it's already about 10% higher than it was in April at this time. So that's really the basis for our outlook for the rest of the year.

僅作為證據，如果我們查看 7 月的訂單，就會發現它已經比 4 月高出約 10%。這確實是我們對今年剩餘時間的展望的基礎。

That's very helpful. And just update maybe on the M&A pipeline and the transformational transaction that was discussed at the last earnings call.

這非常有幫助。也許只是更新上次收益電話會議上討論的併購管道和轉型交易。

So we continue to look at all levels of M&A, David, both kind of small bolt-on acquisitions as well as the more transformational activity that Mark is busy looking at. On the bolt-ons, while we have still many prospects we're looking at, while we haven't found any better delivering at the value we would like it to complete this year, but that activity will come through. And as I said, Mark continues to work on the transformational M&A. But as we told you all before, that will come when it comes and a little bit uncertain on that timing.

因此，大衛，我們將繼續關注各個層面的併購，包括小型附加收購以及馬克正在忙於關注的更具轉型性的活動。就附加功能而言，雖然我們仍在考慮許多前景，但我們還沒有找到任何更好的方案來達到我們希望今年完成的價值，但這項活動將會實現。正如我所說，馬克繼續致力於轉型併購。但正如我們之前告訴大家的，這個時刻將會到來，只是具體時間還有些不確定。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In your Engineered Materials business, your equity income was down in second quarter year-over-year, and you have some strong comparisons coming up. What's the trajectory of equity income? I know that there are timing issues having to do with oil prices.

在您的工程材料業務中，您的股權收入在第二季度同比下降，並且您將面臨一些強有力的比較。股權收益的走勢如何？我知道存在與油價有關的時機問題。

Yes. So if we look at equity income year-over-year, we saw about a $27 million decline there. Actually, almost 2/3 of that, $16 million of it was really due to affiliates. And of the affiliates, $10 million was due to turnaround timing at Ibn Sina. So clearly, we expect that to reverse itself. We had some weakness in other affiliates in the first -- in the second quarter and in the first half as I think we described last quarter, specifically around our China affiliates that are -- were more exposed to auto. We've seen some strengthening of that in second quarter.

是的。因此，如果我們看一下同比的股權收入，我們會發現下降了約 2700 萬美元。事實上，其中近三分之二（1600 萬美元）實際上是附屬公司的錢。而對於附屬公司而言，其中 1000 萬美元是由於 Ibn Sina 的周轉時間造成的。顯然，我們預期這種情況會逆轉。正如我們上個季度所描述的，我們在第一季（第二季和上半年）的其他附屬公司中存在一些弱點，特別是在我們的中國附屬公司中，它們更多地受到汽車業務的影響。我們在第二季度看到了這種勢頭的加強。

So I think going forward, again, we'll see the reversing of that turnaround timing at Ibn Sina. We are seeing some strengthening in our affiliates' performance. And then the remainder of that, kind of the additional $10 million year-on-year is just general market conditions, which, as I described to David's question, we do start to see some signs of starting to recover some of the demand as we go into the second half.

因此我認為，展望未來，我們將再次看到伊本西納的轉變時機出現逆轉。我們看到我們的附屬公司的業績有所增強。然後剩下的部分，也就是同比增加的 1000 萬美元只是一般的市場狀況，正如我在回答 David 的問題時所描述的那樣，隨著進入下半年，我們確實開始看到一些需求開始恢復的跡象。

Is acetic acid pricing in China getting better sequentially and might it make a difference to your returns in the third quarter?

中國的醋酸價格是否連續改善？這會對您第三季的回報產生影響嗎？

Certainly, if it gets better, it will make a difference to our returns in the third quarter. I think indications we've had in the last few weeks is we are starting to see some firming of pricing in acetic acid. Things move around though, so whether that's sustained or not I think is a question.

當然，如果情況好轉，這將對我們第三季的回報產生影響。我認為，過去幾週我們看到的跡象表明，我們開始看到醋酸價格回升。但事情總是在變化的，所以我認為這是否能持續下去還是一個問題。

Todd, do you want -- do you have any comments you want to make around acetic acid pricing going forward?

托德，你想——你對未來的乙酸定價有什麼評論嗎？

Yes, Jeff. The demand situation in China is probably the most important thing to watch. We saw demand come off by at least 10%, probably more than that, for acetic acid sequentially Q1 to Q2. That's an industry comment, not a Celanese comment. But that's weighed on demand conditions, of course, and then therefore pricing conditions and pulled down utilization rates in the second quarter.

是的，傑夫。中國的需求情況可能是最值得關注的事情。我們發現，第一季至第二季度，醋酸需求下降了至少 10%，甚至可能更多。這是行業評論，而不是塞拉尼斯的評論。但這當然會對需求條件造成壓力，進而影響定價條件並拉低第二季的使用率。

We're watching it very closely. We've pivoted our business to derivatives, mainly vinyl acetate and emulsions, and have grown that space by 9% sequentially on volumes. And that's lifted the overall acetyl business by about 2% sequentially. But to your point, we're watching China price. We're heavily involved, of course, in that part of the world. And demand is a key thing to watch at this stage.

我們正在密切關注此事。我們已將業務重點轉向衍生性商品，主要是醋酸乙烯酯和乳液，並且該領域的銷量已連續增長 9%。這使得乙醯基業務整體較上季成長了約 2%。但正如您所說，我們正在關注中國的價格。當然，我們深入參與了該地區的事務。而需求是現階段需要關注的關鍵因素。

Next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

I was wondering if you could give us some breakdown of your CapEx. You talked about $0.5 billion in 2021. Can you give us those buckets in terms of maintenance or cost reduction activity and then [gross] spending and maybe some of the highlight projects that are in there?

我想知道您是否可以提供您的資本支出的明細。您談到了 2021 年的 5 億美元。您能否為我們提供維護或成本削減活動、[總]支出以及其中的一些重點項目？

Sure. Thanks, Bob. So if we look at where we are, and let me just start with '19. So in '19, we're about -- we're approaching $400 million in CapEx. If you look at where that's being spent, about 50% of it is in EHS and what I call maintained margin projects, so turnaround, reliability-related projects, maintaining the equipment to basically maintain where we are. About 25% of it is in cost reduction projects. And I think what's significant about that is that's about 3x more than we've had in previous years. And that really reflects our continued focus on helping ourselves, if you will, through productivity by doing relatively minor investments so that yields large future cost savings. And then about 25% is in revenue generation.

當然。謝謝，鮑伯。因此，如果我們看看我們現在的情況，讓我從 19 年開始。因此，在 19 年，我們的資本支出將接近 4 億美元。如果你看看這些資金都花在了哪裡，你會發現其中大約 50% 是用在了 EHS 和我所說的維持利潤項目上，也就是周轉、可靠性相關項目、維護設備，基本上就是為了維持我們現在的水平。其中約25%用於成本削減項目。我認為，重要的是，這比前幾年增加了 3 倍。這確實反映了我們繼續致力於透過相對較小的投資來提高生產力，從而節省未來的成本。其中約 25% 用於創收。

Now as you go forward and you see that number getting closer to $500 million, all of that growth is really in revenue generation. So it really is -- and/or productivity. So it is projects like methanol expansion. It's projects like the VAM expansions we've done. We have some additional compounding lines starting up as we go forward as well as some debottlenecking activity in various polymers in the U.S. and in Europe and in Asia actually, in all 3 regions. So the real growth is all in revenue-generating activities, either volume and/or productivity. And in almost all cases, we can trade all productivity for volume.

現在，隨著你繼續前進，你會看到這個數字接近 5 億美元，所有這些成長實際上都是為了創造收入。所以它確實如此——和/或生產力。所以它是像甲醇擴建這樣的項目。這是我們完成的 VAM 擴充等項目。隨著我們繼續前進，我們將啟動一些額外的複合生產線，並在美國、歐洲和亞洲（實際上在所有三個地區）開展各種聚合物的去瓶頸活動。因此，真正的成長全部來自創收活動，無論是數量還是生產力。在幾乎所有情況下，我們都可以用產量來換取全部生產力。

I think on a go-forward basis, I think what I would bake in there on that is about $150 million of MOB-type CapEx, and the rest is exactly what Lori talked about from a cost reduction and rev gen standpoint. But we look at the entire bucket of CapEx, and the returns we generate on that entire bucket inclusive of MOB at 20% -- greater than 20% return. So that's kind of what I would bake in on a go-forward basis.

我認為從未來的角度來看，我認為我會在其中投入大約 1.5 億美元的 MOB 型資本支出，其餘部分正是 Lori 從成本削減和轉速生成的角度所談論的。但我們考慮了整個資本支出，以及包括 MOB 在內的整個資本支出產生的 20% 以上的回報——高於 20% 的回報。這就是我今後要考慮的事情。

And can I ask on the EM side? You guys had some pretty explosive growth there 4, 6, 8 quarters ago. It started to slow, and then you're also battling maybe raw material pressures and being more selective on your pricing. Well, this quarter, it looked like both volume and price got dinged. I guess I could see the volume side, but can you talk a little more about what's going on in price and maybe how your pricing in EM correlates to what's happening in the raw material?

可以問一下 EM 方面的問題嗎？4、6、8 個季度前，你們實現了相當爆炸性的成長。它開始放緩，然後你可能還要應對原材料壓力，並且在定價方面更加挑剔。嗯，本季度，看起來銷量和價格都受到了影響。我想我可以看到數量方面，但您能否再多談談價格走勢，以及新興市場的定價與原材料走勢有何關聯？

Yes. So if we look at Engineered Materials, we do see -- as we talked about, we've seen a decline in auto demand. We've seen a decline in electronics demand. Clearly, in some areas, especially nylon, for example, and elastomers, which has been heavily challenged by those declines, we have seen a lot of competitors in the market driving price down, and we've seen a lot of pricing being done to compete for volume. Now we haven't followed that all the way down. And obviously, that's why our volumes are somewhat off in those areas. But we have seen some pricing pressure, especially in those areas and especially as it applies to automotive.

是的。因此，如果我們看一下工程材料，我們確實看到——正如我們所討論的，我們已經看到汽車需求的下降。我們看到電子產品需求下降。顯然，在某些領域，特別是尼龍和彈性體，由於價格下滑而受到嚴重挑戰，我們看到市場上有很多競爭對手在壓低價格，而且我們看到很多定價都是為了爭奪銷量。現在我們還沒有完全遵循這一點。顯然，這就是為什麼我們的銷量在這些地區有所下降。但我們也看到了一些定價壓力，特別是在這些領域，尤其是汽車領域。

What I would say there, nylon and elastomers are heavily impacted by the M&A we had over the last 2 or 3 years. So that's also kind of year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. We're not -- we haven't had any significant M&A in the last year. So that is a change from, say, the past several years.

我想說的是，尼龍和彈性體受到過去兩三年併購的嚴重影響。這也是同比和環比成長的表現。我們沒有——去年我們沒有進行任何重大的併購。因此，這與過去幾年相比有所變化。

And what we see with our affiliates is why we're happy overall with their financial performance, a lot of the volume that came in with -- sorry, not with our affiliates, but with our acquisitions. A lot of the volume that came in with our acquisitions were not as differentiated as our base portfolio, not generated using the same project model, and therefore, not as sticky as some of our base portfolio. So as we've gotten into this more challenging economic backdrop, we've seen some of those volumes not be as resilient as our base portfolio. Over time, we expect that to change as we are developing those volumes consistent with our business model, but we have seen those influences come together in this quarter.

而我們對附屬公司的財務表現整體上感到滿意的原因在於，許多交易量來自於——抱歉，不是來自於我們的附屬公司，而是來自於我們的收購。我們收購的許多交易量並不像我們的基礎投資組合那樣具有差異化，不是使用相同的項目模型產生的，因此，不像我們的一些基礎投資組合那樣具有黏性。因此，當我們進入這個更具挑戰性的經濟背景時，我們發現其中一些交易量並不像我們的基礎投資組合那樣具有彈性。隨著時間的推移，我們預計這種情況會發生變化，因為我們正在開發與我們的業務模式一致的數量，但我們已經看到這些影響在本季度匯聚在一起。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Just a question around your capacity in acetyls in Asia. There were some reports during the quarter that you were taking your own utilization rates down. So could you discuss that a little bit and then help us understand where rates are now in the third quarter and where you expect them to be?

我只是想問一下你們在亞洲的乙醯基產能。本季有報告稱，你們正在降低自己的利用率。那麼，您能否稍微討論一下這個問題，然後幫助我們了解第三季的利率水準以及您預期的利率水準？

Yes. So maybe I'll start and ask Todd to weigh in more specifically. I mean in generally, in acetic acid in China, we are seeing demand decline of more than 10% in the second quarter, and that put China capacity utilizations around 70%. And that's versus if you go back, say, a year ago, that was well into the mid-80s or even a little bit higher. So for certain, utilization is significantly down in China in general.

是的。因此，也許我會開始並要求托德更具體地發表意見。我的意思是，總體而言，我們看到中國醋酸的需求在第二季下降了 10％ 以上，這使得中國的產能利用率達到 70％ 左右。相較之下，如果你回顧一下，比如說，一年前，這個數字已經達到了 80 年代中期，甚至更高一點。因此可以肯定的是，中國整體的利用率大幅下降。

Our own capacity, I'll let Todd come on, on that, but I will say we did see some other producers in China take units down entirely and take capacity back in response to that as that, combined with kind of historically low level of pricing, made it unaffordable for folks to run.

關於我們自己的產能，我讓托德來談談這個問題，但我要說的是，我們確實看到中國的一些其他生產商完全關閉了生產單位，並收回了產能，因為這種情況加上歷史上的低價格水平，使得人們無力承擔運營成本。

Maybe, Todd, you have a few comments on operations?

托德，也許你對操作有一些評論？

Yes, sure. Thanks. Yes, thanks, Vincent. Thanks, Lori. Vincent, we flex our acetyls network on a daily basis. I mean this is what we do every day and every week and every month, trying to get the maximum value we can in each of the products, and we did a great deal of that in Q2. Our activations were up 30% sequentially, and this is our measurement of really actions and decisions that we take to flex our network in the best way.

是的，當然。謝謝。是的，謝謝，文森。謝謝，洛瑞。文森特，我們每天都會運用我們的乙醯基網路。我的意思是，這就是我們每天、每週、每月所做的事情，試圖讓每種產品發揮最大的價值，而我們在第二季度做了很多這樣的工作。我們的活化率較上季成長了 30%，這是我們以最佳方式靈活運用網路所採取的實際行動和決策的衡量標準。

So remember, we had a couple of turnarounds in the system in Q2. We had a vinyl acetate turnaround in Bay City as well as in Nanjing, so that kept VAM rates lower in those 2 units. Acetic acid-wise, if you look out a little bit, we do have turnarounds -- the first part of a turnaround in Singapore before the end of this quarter Q3 and then mainly into Q4. So without giving specific rates by unit, I think the key takeaway is our flexibility, our ability to pivot, whether acetic acid or derivatives, is really the differentiation that we would point to.

所以請記住，我們在第二季經歷了幾次系統轉變。我們在貝城和南京都進行了醋酸乙烯酯的周轉，因此這兩個單位的 VAM 費率較低。就醋酸而言，如果你稍微留意一下，你會發現我們確實出現了轉機——新加坡的第一部分轉機將在本季第三季結束前出現，然後主要在第四季出現。因此，在不給出每個單位的具體費率的情況下，我認為關鍵在於我們的靈活性，我們的轉向能力，無論是乙酸還是衍生物，這才是我們真正要指出的差異化。

So we intentionally moved plus 5% of our acetic acid tonnage downstream to our derivatives. So we shifted to VAM, shifted to emulsions, 5% sequentially. That allowed autos to grow VAM and emulsions by 9% volumetrically from Q1 to Q2 and then therefore lifting the overall chain by 2% sequentially. So those choices, those options and choices are what we would point to. And really, the end result is profitability of $189 million. And if you take out the turnaround that I mentioned before, which were about $15 million of headwind in the quarter, puts us about that $200 million run rate for the business on a quarterly basis while keeping EBIT margins above 20%.

因此，我們有意將超過 5% 的乙酸噸位轉移到下游的衍生物。因此我們轉向 VAM，轉向乳液，依序增加 5%。這使得汽車產業的 VAM 和乳劑產量從 Q1 到 Q2 增加了 9%，從而使整個鏈條連續提升了 2%。所以這些選擇、這些選項和選擇就是我們要指出的。最終的結果是獲利 1.89 億美元。如果你去掉我之前提到的扭轉局面的因素，即本季度約 1500 萬美元的逆風，那麼我們每季度的業務運行率將達到約 2 億美元，同時保持 EBIT 利潤率在 20% 以上。

Okay. That's helpful. If I could just ask on EM, on the volume side of the equation, you called out a couple of things that a little more color would be helpful. One, it sounded like in the first quarter, there was an inventory build from some of the health care customers. Could you just kind of help us understand how that volume does swing around from quarter-to-quarter? It seemed like in the first quarter, volume was strong if I go back and look at the comments from then. So how does that work if their volume shifts around? And then secondly, I think there was a comment that volume was also hurt by a mix effect, if you could just help us understand what that is.

好的。這很有幫助。如果我可以在 EM 上詢問，在等式的音量方面，您指出了一些事情，如果能更詳細地說明會很有幫助。首先，聽起來好像在第一季度，一些醫療保健客戶增加了庫存。您能否幫助我們了解一下該交易量在各個季度間是如何變化的？如果我回顧當時的評論，似乎在第一季度，交易量很強勁。那麼，如果它們的音量發生變化，情況會如何呢？其次，我認為有一條評論說，銷量也受到混合效應的影響，如果您能幫助我們理解那是什麼的話。

Thanks, Vincent. And actually, those are -- those are really the same thing. It continues to be a very strong sector for us, but it is a very -- relatively small volume sector with very high margins. And so actually, small swings in volume can have a very big impact on our earnings. And what we saw in the first quarter is we did see customers, particularly in the U.K., building volume in anticipation of a Brexit move, clearly it didn't happen, worrying about tariffs and availability and everything else relative to Brexit. And it does -- again, it's not a huge volume, but it swings a good bit of the margin.

謝謝，文森特。事實上，那些 — — 那些確實是同一件事。對我們來說，這仍然是一個非常強大的行業，但它是一個規模相對較小、利潤率很高的行業。因此，實際上，交易量的微小波動都會對我們的收益產生很大的影響。我們在第一季看到的情況是，我們確實看到客戶，特別是英國的客戶，在預期英國脫歐的情況下增加了銷量，但顯然這並沒有發生，他們擔心關稅、供應情況以及與英國脫歐相關的所有其他問題。事實確實如此——雖然數量不是很大，但卻對利潤產生了相當大的影響。

If you look at our EM kind of quarter-to-quarter, first quarter to second quarter, of what we say is the volumetric impact, it -- of that volumetric impact, so 7% total volumetric impact, 4% of that was actual EM volume, 3% was just the mix with most of that being medical. So just the fact that medical volumes got moved into the first quarter from second quarter, we see this from time to time. It was particularly big first and second quarter, but medical tends to be a bit lumpy. We get a big order once we get FDA approval. And people well stock up as they prepare for run and then go down. So it tends to be a bit lumpier maybe doing some of our other business but we did see the first to second quarter primarily because of the Brexit impact.

如果您看一下我們的 EM 季度數據，即第一季到第二季的數據，我們所說的體積影響，即體積影響，總體積影響為 7%，其中 4% 是實際 EM 體積，3% 只是混合，其中大部分是醫療。因此，我們時常會看到醫療量從第二季轉移到第一季的情況。第一季和第二季尤其如此，但醫療業務往往有點不穩定。一旦獲得 FDA 批准，我們就會接到大訂單。人們在準備跑步時會儲備一些物資，然後出發。因此，我們的其他業務可能會有點不穩定，但我們確實看到第一季至第二季主要受到英國脫歐的影響。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

Nice quarter there. In terms of the Acetyl Chain, I'm just curious, you guys, as you've talked about, do a good job pivoting between upstream/downstream, geographically. And so as you think about the second half of the year, where do you think you're going to need to pivot to make your earnings outlook for the year? And maybe it's hard to say, but just any current -- are you going to stay downstream, that type of thought?

那裡很不錯。就乙醯鏈而言，我只是好奇，正如你們所說的，你們在地理上在上游/下游之間很好地轉換。那麼，當您考慮下半年時，您認為需要在哪裡調整才能製定全年盈利前景？也許這很難說，但就像任何水流一樣——你會留在下游嗎，是這種想法嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. So on the Acetyl Chain, quite frankly, we're quite pleased with where we are. I mean continuing to turn in 7 consecutive quarters above 20%. And I think the second quarter is really just a good example of the strength of the model in acetyls and the ability to have authorization to continuously do activations, as Todd just described, most value at wherever it exists, but beyond the chain.

是的。謝謝，麥克。因此，坦白說，我們對乙醯鏈的現狀非常滿意。我的意思是連續 7 個季度的成長率超過 20%。我認為第二季度實際上只是乙醯基模型強度的一個很好的例子，以及獲得授權持續進行激活的能力，正如托德剛才所描述的，最有價值的東西存在於它存在的任何地方，但超越了鏈條。

I think an interesting point and maybe a bit to your question, if you look at the very low pricing we're seeing in acetyls from China, less than $400 a ton, the last time we saw this level of pricing was back in first quarter of '17. And if you look at the earnings in first quarter '17 for acetyls, it was $109 million. You compare that to the second quarter now at $189 million, we've had an $80 million uplift in the value of the Acetyl Chain and basically the same economic condition based on the strength of the model and the folks deploying it and the focus on productivity and all the other steps. Put another way, margins on acetyls went from 14% in first quarter '17 to now 22% in second quarter '19. So I think that really speaks to the strength of the Acetyl Chain.

我認為一個有趣的觀點可能有點回答你的問題，如果你看看我們看到的來自中國的乙醯基的非常低的價格，每噸不到 400 美元，我們上次看到這種價格水平是在 2017 年第一季。如果你看一下 2017 年第一季乙醯基的收益，它是 1.09 億美元。與第二季的 1.89 億美元相比，乙醯鏈的價值增加了 8000 萬美元，並且基於模型的強度、部署模型的人員以及對生產力和所有其他步驟的關注，經濟狀況基本上相同。換句話說，乙醯基的利潤率從 2017 年第一季的 14% 上升到 2019 年第二季的 22%。所以我認為這確實說明了乙醯鏈的強度。

Really, to achieve that $10.50 view for the year, it's really just continuing to activate that model and continuing to deliver on that $200 million level quarter-on-quarter. And obviously, if we were to get for whatever reason a good run-up in the prices of acetic acid in China in particular, that would just be more on top of that.

實際上，要實現全年 10.50 美元的目標，實際上只是繼續激活該模型並繼續逐季度實現 2 億美元的水平。顯然，如果出於某種原因，特別是中國的醋酸價格大幅上漲，那麼情況就會變得更糟。

Got it. And then as a quick follow-up, in terms of EPS, you did about -- you did $5 in the first half and adjusted EBIT about close to $800 million. So you look at the second half, you need a little bit more obviously in EPS $5.50. Does your adjusted EBIT have to go up a lot in the second half to do better? Or is it -- and maybe just a thought on how the second half adjusted EBIT looks relative to the first half.

知道了。然後快速跟進一下，就每股收益而言，您在上半年的收益約為 5 美元，調整後的息稅前利潤約為接近 8 億美元。因此，看看下半年，你顯然需要每股收益 5.50 美元。您的調整後息稅前利潤是否必須在下半年大幅上漲才能取得更好的表現？或者是——也許只是對下半年調整後的息稅前利潤相對於上半年如何的想法。

Yes. Again, we are assuming some improvement in market conditions based on my earlier comments. So obviously, EBIT will go with that. But clearly, also on an EPS basis, we're helped by the share buybacks that we've had in the first half of this year as well as last year. But let me turn it over to Scott to maybe give a more complete answer.

是的。再次，根據我之前的評論，我們假設市場狀況會有所改善。顯然，息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 將隨之成長。但顯然，從每股盈餘來看，今年上半年和去年的股票回購也對我們有幫助。但讓我把它交給史考特，也許他能給更完整的答案。

Yes. I think that's really the point. I think we do need a slight improvement in the adjusted EBIT. And I think Lori talked earlier about how we expect that -- given the destocking we saw in the first half, that we believe the second half can be better, order book starting out in July a little better than what we saw, particularly in second quarter. And then just what we saw in the first half of this year, we're currently not baking in the same level of Q4 seasonality. So when you kind of take all these things into consideration, you should have slightly a better adjusted EBIT in the second half, plus the benefit of the buybacks we did in the first half and what we expect to do in the second.

是的。我認為這就是關鍵。我認為我們確實需要稍微改善一下調整後的息稅前利潤。我認為 Lori 之前談到了我們的預期——考慮到上半年我們看到的去庫存現象，我們相信下半年的情況會更好，7 月開始的訂單情況會比我們看到的要好一些，尤其是第二季度。正如我們在今年上半年所看到的，我們目前還沒有感受到第四季度相同程度的季節性影響。因此，當你把所有這些因素都考慮進去時，下半年的調整後息稅前利潤應該會略有改善，再加上我們上半年回購的收益以及我們預計下半年將採取的措施。

Our next question comes from John Roberts with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Methanex is going forward with its third unit in Geismar. Todd, could you give us an update on the Clear Lake methanol expansions that you're doing with Mitsui?

Methanex 正在蓋斯瑪 (Geismar) 建造其第三套裝置。托德，您能否向我們介紹一下您與三井物產合作進行的 Clear Lake 甲醇擴建計畫的最新進展？

Yes. Thanks, John. We announced last quarter, our plan is to take that unit up to 1.7 million tons. That would be operational sometime in 2022. We're pleased with the output of that unit. That continues to contribute value as it's running above the original design capacity. But we're on track, again, to raise that up by about 150,000 tons. That would be shared with our partner and, again, on track towards 1.7 million by 2022. And we'll update that specific timing as we work through the progress. We did receive the requisite permit from Texas to proceed down the path there.

是的。謝謝，約翰。我們上個季度宣布，我們的計劃是將該單位的產量提高到 170 萬噸。該項目將於 2022 年某個時候投入營運。我們對該單位的產出感到滿意。由於其運行超出了原始設計容量，因此它將繼續創造價值。但我們仍有望再次將這一數字提高約 15 萬噸。我們將與合作夥伴分享這一數字，並再次努力實現 2022 年 170 萬的目標。隨著工作的進展，我們將更新具體時間。我們確實獲得了德克薩斯州頒發的沿此路前行所需的許可。

Okay. And then, Lori or Scott, in the Engineered Materials business, could you share with us how much the automotive business was actually down during the second quarter? Was it down double-digit percent?

好的。那麼，工程材料業務部的 Lori 或 Scott，您能否與我們分享一下第二季汽車業務的實際下滑幅度？下降幅度達到兩位數百分比了嗎？

So if you look at actual automotive builds, we actually saw about a 3% drop, most of that coming entirely out of Asia. U.S. was actually up a little bit on the strength of [trucks], that EU was down. Of course, [bills] is interesting, but what really matters to us is what the demand for product is. And there, in our discussion with the Tier 2 and 3 suppliers to auto in all regions, we were hearing from some of our key customers and distributors declines of 20% to 30% on volume. So clearly, an indication to us that destocking was continuing into the second quarter.

因此，如果你看一下實際的汽車製造情況，我們實際上看到了約 3% 的下降，其中大部分來自亞洲。由於卡車銷量強勁，美國銷售實際上略有上升，而歐盟銷售則有所下降。當然，[帳單]很有趣，但對我們來說真正重要的是產品的需求是什麼。在我們與各個地區的二級和三級汽車供應商的討論中，我們從一些主要客戶和分銷商那裡得知，銷量下降了 20% 至 30%。這顯然表明去庫存化將持續到第二季​​。

Were you down in line with those Tier 2 discussions that you had?

您是否參與了先前進行的第 2 層討論？

No. Our EM volume -- actual volume was down about 4% in total for EM.

不。我們的新興市場交易量—新興市場的實際交易量總計下降了約 4%。

Yes. And John, auto -- the auto piece of that was just maybe about a percentage point higher than that.

是的。約翰，汽車部分可能只比這高出一個百分點。

Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Lori, as the center of gravity for acetyls shifts to the U.S. and at the same time for EM, the focus of growth seems to be China, does that mean that there will be less integration between the 2 businesses going forward?

Lori，隨著乙醯基產品的重心轉移到美國，同時新興市場的成長重點似乎轉向中國，這是否意味著未來兩家公司之間的整合將會減少？

It -- well it's an interesting question, P.J. I don't think there's less integration going forward. I mean we have raw materials available in China. There's plenty of acetic acid producers. It just may mean that less of our own material was going into EM in China, but we continue to have a growing EM business in the U.S. So I don't see it having a significant change in terms of the amount of integration between the 2 businesses.

這是一個有趣的問題，P.J. 我不認為未來的整合會減少。我的意思是我們在中國有原料。醋酸生產商有很多。這可能意味著我們用於中國新興市場的原材料減少了，但我們在美國的新興市場業務仍在成長。因此，我認為兩家公司之間的整合程度不會有重大變化。

Okay. And as acetic acid prices dropped, you nicely pivoted to VAM and emulsions. And so that's a great tactical move from your team. But when do competitors catch up with that move? Or are they not that flexible? Because I would imagine that these are big large companies that are global and they should be able to do the same thing.

好的。隨著醋酸價格的下降，您順利地轉向了 VAM 和乳液。所以這是你們團隊的一個偉大的戰術舉措。但競爭對手什麼時候才能趕上這項措施？或者它們不是那麼靈活？因為我認為這些都是全球性的大公司，他們應該可以做同樣的事情。

Yes. So the interesting thing is I think there aren't any competitors who can do the same thing. I mean that's the beauty of our integrated model. I mean there's a lot of competitors who make acetic acid. There are competitors who make VAM, and there are competitors who make emulsions. There's not many who make all 3 from the start of the value chain at the CO and methanol all the way through emulsions. And that's really where our model is, I think, differentiated from others, and it's strong. It allows us to give less volatile results in this level of earnings is because we are fully integrated to the chain and fully integrated geographically, which not all of our competitors are. So we have the ability as we did this quarter to reduce our exposure to Asia and increase our sales into the Western Hemisphere where margin -- available margins were higher for VAM and emulsions.

是的。所以有趣的是，我認為沒有任何競爭對手可以做同樣的事情。我的意思是這就是我們的整合模型的優點。我的意思是有很多生產乙酸的競爭對手。有生產VAM的競爭對手，也有生產乳劑的競爭對手。從價值鏈的開始，從二氧化碳和甲醇一直到乳液，能夠生產這三種產品的企業並不多。我認為，這正是我們的模型與其他模型的不同之處，而且它很強大。這使我們能夠在這種盈利水平下獲得波動較小的結果，因為我們已經完全融入了產業鏈，並且在地理上也完全整合，而並非所有競爭對手都這樣做。因此，正如本季度所做的那樣，我們有能力減少對亞洲的敞口，並增加對西半球的銷售，因為西半球的 VAM 和乳液的可用利潤率更高。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays Bank.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

A question around Lori's comment that you're $80 million a quarter better now in this kind of a tough acetic or acetyls market than you were in Q1 of '17. It would strike me that, that's got to be one of 3 factors, either better realized price versus the posted price, better cost or you're selling more volume into the market. Can you break it down into those 3 buckets, that $80 million? Where does the majority of it come from? And how much do you think is structural versus maybe just some transitory fortunate business?

圍繞著 Lori 的評論，有一個問題：在如此艱難的乙酸或乙醯基市場中，你們現在每季的銷售額比 2017 年第一季高出 8000 萬美元。我認為，這必須是以下三個因素之一：要么是實際價格高於公佈價格，要么是成本更低，要么是向市場銷售更多產品。您能將這 8000 萬美元分成三個部分嗎？其中大部分來自哪裡？您認為這其中有多少是結構性的，有多少只是一些暫時的幸運之舉？

Well -- so Duffy, I mean, I think -- look, we work very hard for these results. So what I would tell you is I don't have the exact breakdown in front of me. I mean it's a little bit of all of it. But it really is the ability to flex our model and make choices about where we take value out of the chain. So it's certainly price, and the price we're realizing for VAM and emulsions, if you will, versus acetic acid. But I think the point is it is the strength of the value chain, the strength of the geographic model and the talent of our folks, if you will, to be able to constantly flex and make decisions every day about where to extract value in that chain, which makes us confident that we can continue to deliver these results even in periods of low margin environment like we've seen in the second quarter.

嗯——達菲，我的意思是，我認為——看，我們為了這些結果付出了很大的努力。所以我想告訴你的是，我面前並沒有確切的細分。我的意思是，這一切都有一點。但它實際上是一種靈活調整我們的模型並選擇從鏈中獲取價值的能力。因此，這肯定是價格問題，而且我們實現的 VAM 和乳液的價格（如果你願意的話）與乙酸相比。但我認為關鍵在於價值鏈的力量、地理模型的力量以及我們員工的才能，如果你願意的話，能夠不斷靈活變通，每天做出決定，決定在何處提取價值鏈中的價值，這使我們有信心，即使在像第二季度那樣的低利潤環境下，我們也能繼續取得這些成果。

Yes. And Duffy, I could add, remember, we've added integration with methanol. We've added integration more recently with carbon monoxide. We expanded our vinyl acetate unit in Clear Lake by 150,000 tons. And we've achieved more options, frankly, with this global network that Lori just outlined. So it's really the combination of that and the real-time use of data which provides us insights to make these calls, these activations to effect these decisions that contribute to the result. We believe it's repeatable, and we're going to look at additional value steps going forward. John asked the question about the methanol expansion. There's other value addition steps that we're pursuing and look to layer those on top of (inaudible) accounts.

是的。達菲，我可以補充一點，記住，我們已經增加了與甲醇的整合。我們最近增加了與一氧化碳的整合。我們將 Clear Lake 的醋酸乙烯酯裝置產能擴大了 15 萬噸。坦白說，透過 Lori 剛才概述的這個全球網絡，我們獲得了更多的選擇。因此，正是這些與即時數據的結合為我們提供了洞察力，使我們能夠做出這些調用、這些激活，從而影響這些有助於結果的決策。我們相信這是可重複的，並且我們將在未來尋找更多的價值步驟。約翰詢問了有關甲醇膨脹的問題。我們正在採取其他增值措施，並希望將這些措施疊加在（聽不清楚）帳戶之上。

Thanks, Todd. And I think we shouldn't ignore productivity. I mean for Celanese, we are delivering about $100 million a year in productivity [set]. So again, roughly kind of 50-50. That -- certainly doing that year-on-year-on-year is making us more competitive as well, lowering our overall cost base.

謝謝，托德。我認為我們不應該忽視生產力。我的意思是，對於塞拉尼斯來說，我們每年的生產力約為 1 億美元。所以，再說一遍，大概是 50-50。逐年這樣做當然也讓我們更具競爭力，降低了我們的整體成本基礎。

Great. And then does the market believe that the coal gasification explosion at Yima is going to be a big deal for the acetic acid and the acetyls market in China?

偉大的。那麼市場是否認為義馬煤氣化爆炸會對中國醋酸和乙醯市場產生重大影響？

Todd?

托德？

Yes, Duffy, I think it's too early to get into that. And it's a terrible, terrible thing. Many lives lost and multiple injury in there. And Henan province, there's something like 11% of domestic Chinese capacity in that province. So it's a -- from a country perspective, that province was a big producer. This particular unit was only a couple hundred thousand tons, so call it 2% or so of domestic capacity. So we're watching that. We're -- it will remain to be seen what the province does across the other units there in Henan and whether steps to be taken to curtail operations there. We're focused on what we can do with our customers to keep our efforts and business connected and ultimately work the Q3.

是的，達菲，我認為現在討論這個還為時過早。這是一件非常非常可怕的事。那裡有許多人喪生，多人受傷。河南省的國內產能約佔全國的 11%。因此，從國家角度來看，該省是一個生產大省。這個特定的裝置只有幾十萬噸，所以它只佔國內產能的2%左右。所以我們正在關注這一點。我們——河南省對其他單位採取什麼措施以及是否採取措施減少那裡的行動還有待觀察。我們專注於為客戶做些什麼，以保持我們的努力和業務聯繫，並最終在第三季度取得成功。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Two quick ones. First, on the uptick in the order book that you've seen recently, can you give a sense for how broad-based is it or if there's any particular regions that are stronger than others in terms of the pace of improvement? And secondly, on productivity and turnarounds, is there any lumpiness that we should be thinking about for 2020 and 2021 in terms of timing of outages going forward?

兩個簡單的。首先，關於您最近看到的訂單量上升，您能否說明一下這種上升的普遍性，或者是否有哪個地區的改善速度比其他地區更強？其次，關於生產力和周轉率，我們是否應該考慮 2020 年和 2021 年未來停產時間的任何不確定性？

Yes. So on the order book, we're seeing it fairly broadly. I would say because of the declines we saw in second quarter, I mean it's probably more noticeable in some of those grades, nylon, elastomers that I talked about, seeing good recovery in palm, good recovery in LTP into electronics. So I'd say it's pretty broad across the different grades that we make in the order book. And then it's also pretty spread between the regions at this point.

是的。因此，在訂單簿上，我們看到的情況相當廣泛。我想說，由於我們在第二季度看到的下滑，我的意思是，在某些等級中可能更為明顯，例如我談到的尼龍、彈性體，棕櫚油的復甦良好，LTP 和電子產品的復甦良好。所以我想說，我們在訂單簿中製作的不同等級的範圍相當廣泛。目前它在各地區之間的分佈也相當廣泛。

Yes. On turnarounds, Laurence, we're doing that work right now on kind of flanging that up across the corporation as we do turnaround planning, and we'll provide more insight into that probably in October.

是的。關於扭虧為盈，勞倫斯，我們目前正在整個公司範圍內進行扭虧為盈規劃，我們大概會在 10 月提供更多見解。

Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Lori, congrats again on your new role.

洛瑞，再次恭喜你獲得新的職位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I guess going back to your EPS guidance reiteration for '19 and sort of the embedded expectation for improved demand fundamentals as per your comments in the press release, are you basically assuming that the inventory destocking that pressured the first half is now behind you? Or are you assuming any sort of acceleration in end market volumes, including in the EM segment?

我想回到您對 2019 年每股收益指引的重申，以及您在新聞稿中對需求基本面改善的預期，您是否基本上假設上半年的庫存去庫存壓力已經過去了？還是您假設終端市場銷售量會出現某種加速成長，包括新興市場領域？

Yes. So that assumption is we are assuming that destocking is pretty much behind us. Now we're not assuming any restocking, if you will. We're really assuming a return to normal demand in the third and fourth quarter and some assumption around not seeing the amount of seasonality in fourth quarter we usually see for destocking because we believe the destockings already occurred.

是的。所以我們的假設是，去庫存化已經基本結束。現在我們不承擔任何補貨，如果你願意的話。我們實際上假設第三季和第四季需求將恢復正常，並且我們假設第四季度不會出現我們通常看到的去庫存季節性，因為我們認為去庫存已經發生。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just in terms of some of the supply chain [super] market, such as electronics perhaps moving away from China into other parts of the world, including Southeast Asia, at least directionally, how are you sort of balancing your focus on expanding your EM footprint in China, which you called out in your prepared comments, versus some of the other regions across Southeast Asia more broadly?

好的。這很有幫助。那麼就某些供應鏈[超級]市場而言，例如電子產品可能正在從中國轉移到世界其他地區，包括東南亞，至少在方向上，您如何平衡對擴大中國新興市場的關注（您在準備好的評論中提到了這一點），以及對東南亞其他一些地區的關注？

Yes. So we are very focused on expanding auto in China and not just our sales. I mean I think if you go back historically, most of -- our EM business in China really started with following big auto, if you will, into China, and people that we supplied in other regions of the world, whether it be Europe or the U.S., basically supplying the same materials into China. And so it was very much on a -- exporting materials from the U.S., exporting from Europe into China.

是的。因此，我們非常注重擴大中國汽車市場的規模，而不僅僅是銷售量。我的意思是，如果回顧歷史，我們在中國的大多數 EM 業務實際上都是從跟隨大型汽車公司進入中國開始的，而我們為世界其他地區（無論是歐洲還是美國）供貨的人基本上都向中國供應相同的材料。因此，這很大程度上是從美國出口材料，從歐洲出口到中國。

So if you look at it, the large percentage of our EM materials, in fact, quite the majority, are not just produced but also compounded outside of Asia and then imported into Asia and into China. That worked when we were doing a lot of auto and things that had long lead times and things that had pretty long life. But if you look at our business now and especially as you go into consumer and electronics and things that maybe even change every 6 months to a year, it's just not a supply chain that can meet our customer demands to get products more quickly, development more quickly. So we are already -- have a couple of projects going in this year to add compounding lines in China. And our future capital program over the next few years is focusing on adding poly as well as additional compounding in China really to shorten the supply chain to meet the needs of our current customers in China and the rest of Asia.

所以如果你看一下，你會發現我們的大部分 EM 材料不僅是在亞洲以外生產的，而且還在亞洲以外進行混合，然後進口到亞洲和中國。當我們生產大量汽車產品以及交貨週期較長和使用壽命較長的產品時，這種方法就很有效。但如果你看看我們現在的業務，特別是當你進入消費品和電子產品領域，這些領域可能每 6 個月到 1 年就會發生變化，你會發現我們的供應鏈根本無法滿足客戶對更快地獲得產品和更快地進行開發的需求。因此，我們今年已經啟動了幾個項目，在中國增加複合生產線。我們未來幾年的資本計畫將重點放在中國增加聚合物和額外的複合材料，以縮短供應鏈，滿足我們在中國和亞洲其他地區現有客戶的需求。

Our next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

Lori, in your prepared remarks, you had highlighted the ability to accelerate some of the actions around cost cutting. Can you quantify or give us the magnitude as to what you can pull forward to 2019 this year?

洛里，在你準備好的發言中，你強調了加快削減成本的一些行動的能力。您能否量化或告訴我們今年可以在 2019 年取得哪些進展？

Yes. So we pulled forward about $60 million, let's call it, of capital projects, capital spend. So give you an example, these are things like retrofitting and refurbishing natural gas boilers to get better energy efficiency at plants. I mean these are things that we won't necessarily see the payout this year, but we'll see the payout next year and the years that follow.

是的。因此，我們提前撥出了約 6000 萬美元的資本項目或資本支出。舉個例子，這些事情包括改造和翻新天然氣鍋爐，以提高工廠的能源效率。我的意思是，這些事情我們不一定能在今年看到回報，但我們會在明年和接下來的幾年看到回報。

But to give you an idea, on productivity, the combination of capital projects and other productivity where we had been doing a run rate of about $100 million a year on productivity, that number for this year will be between $150 million to $200 million. So we've been able to pull in, call it, $50 million to $100 million on a full year basis now. Obviously, not all was implemented January 1, so we won't get all of it this year, but call it, $50 million to $100 million.

但為了讓大家了解一下，就生產力而言，資本項目和其他生產力的結合，我們每年在生產力方面的運作率約為 1 億美元，而今年的數字將在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間。因此，我們現在全年的收入可以達到 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。顯然，並非所有資金都在 1 月 1 日實施，因此我們今年無法獲得全部資金，但可以算作 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。

Got it. That's helpful. And then with regard to EM, I guess how much -- or what percent roughly of your products can be kind of swapped out quickly if there's competition around pricing? Because it does sound like that may have been a little bit of an issue. And then how much of it is really kind of specked in and is really tough to displace around random price cuts or lapses in discipline?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後關於 EM，我猜如果在價格方面存在競爭，你們有多少或大約百分之多少的產品可以快速更換？因為這聽起來確實可能有點問題。那麼，其中有多少是真正存在的問題，又有多少是真的難以透過隨機降價或紀律鬆懈來消除的呢？

I'm not sure I know the exact numbers. I'll ask Scott to back me up here. But right now, I would say, it's probably 1/3 of it is really very sticky, I mean very, very hard. 1/3 of it is specked in, but probably others could be -- are either already specked in or could be. And then 1/3 of it is more of what I'll call me-too kind of product, which is easier for people to come in and out of based on price.

我不確定我是否知道確切的數字。我會請斯科特來支持我。但現在，我想說，大概有 1/3 真的非常粘，我的意思是非常非常硬。其中 1/3 已被指定，但其他的可能也可以 - 要么已經指定，要么可以指定。其中 1/3 屬於我所謂的「跟風」類產品，人們可以根據價格更輕鬆地進出這類產品。

Yes. I think that's exactly right, John. We're -- I mean about 1/3 of the business is a little bit more transactional. It's still an engineered solution. So it's not something that changes, I mean, from 1 day to the next. But it can be switched out. The reality of it too is we can also switch out between polymer base. So that's an opportunity for us as well, depending on where various raw materials are. And given the breadth of our portfolio now and the fact that we have over 20 different polymer families that we can go into, it just gives us a lot more flexibility in this market, depending where raw materials are in the more transactional spaces. But it continues to be important for us as we build our project pipeline and really start to try to put more focus on that specked-in sticky business that Lori talked about.

是的。我認為這是完全正確的，約翰。我們——我的意思是大約三分之一的業務是交易性的。它仍然是一種精心設計的解決方案。所以，我的意思是，這不是一天兩天就能改變的事情。但可以將其切換出去。事實上，我們也可以在聚合物基之間進行切換。所以這對我們來說也是一個機會，取決於各種原料的所在地。鑑於我們現在的產品組合廣度以及我們擁有超過 20 種不同的聚合物系列的事實，這為我們在這個市場上提供了更大的靈活性，具體取決於原材料在更多交易空間中的位置。但當我們建立專案管道並真正開始嘗試將更多精力放在 Lori 談到的棘手業務上時，這對我們來說仍然很重要。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Question on the acetyls industry. As we look at some of the trends, it seems to us that there's a relatively large number of outages across the industry in recent months, recent quarters. My question is do you agree with that? And if so, do you have a sense for how much or how many of these outages are maintenance-related among your competitors versus caused by economic reasons with market prices sinking? Do you see competitors throttling back simply because they go cash negative, for example?

關於乙醯基行業的問題。當我們觀察一些趨勢時，我們發現最近幾個月、最近幾季整個產業的停電次數相對較多。我的問題是您是否同意這一點？如果是的話，您是否知道這些停電事件中有多少是由於競爭對手的維護相關原因造成的，有多少是由於市場價格下跌的經濟原因造成的？例如，您是否看到競爭對手僅僅因為現金出現負數而減少開支？

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. It's always a little bit hard to say, but let me ask Todd to follow up my comment. We know in China that some capacity has been intentionally shut down due to combination of demand and pricing. Second quarter is traditionally a fairly heavy turnaround quarter as well. So certainly in the U.S. and in Asia, we see some taken out.

是的。謝謝，凱文。這總是有點難以說，但請允許我請托德跟進我的評論。我們知道，在中國，由於需求和價格的綜合影響，一些產能已被故意關閉。傳統上，第二季也是一個相當艱難的季度。因此，我們確實在美國和亞洲看到了一些損失。

Now having run operations for 35 years, I can tell you people make a lot of decisions around extending maintenance outages and doing the metaphor [pacing [things when economics are like they are now. So it's why it's always a little bit unclear about how much is economic versus how much is maintenance. But certainly, we've seen both.

現在我已經運作了 35 年，我可以告訴你，人們在延長維護停機時間和在經濟狀況與現在一樣的情況下進行比喻性 [踱步 [事情] 方面做出了很多決定。所以這就是為什麼我們總是不太清楚多少是經濟成本，多少是維修成本。但可以肯定的是，我們已經看到了這兩種情況。

Todd, you may have more specifics you can provide.

托德，你也許可以提供更多細節。

Yes. Kevin, it's a good question. And to Lori's point, it's hard to know the exact figure. But if we were to try and track utilization rates with that demand drop sequentially by over 10% in acetic acid Q1 to Q2, we believe that would have pulled utilization rates down on a global basis to just under 80%, so call it around 79%, with China actually dipping under 70% utilization rates. So on the heels of that, to your question, to your point, we do believe kind of intentional curtailment occurred late in Q2. We would call a run rate typically around 300,000 tons of sort of normal outages. We think that might have doubled if you kind of ramp it up and factor all that in. Again, hard to be absolutely precise here.

是的。凱文，這是個好問題。正如 Lori 所說，很難知道確切的數字。但如果我們嘗試追蹤利用率，考慮到第一季至第二季醋酸需求連續下降 10% 以上，我們認為全球利用率將下降至略低於 80%，即 79% 左右，而中國的利用率實際上低於 70%。因此，針對您的問題和觀點，我們確實認為第二季末發生了某種故意削減的情況。我們通常將運行率約為 300,000 噸稱為正常停機。我們認為，如果你加大投入並將所有因素都考慮進去，這個數字可能會翻倍。再次強調，這裡很難做到絕對精確。

But there had to have been some intentional actions. We certainly do our part with our own network, and that's what we do to take care of our customers and also to maximize value for shareholders all the time. So there were some curtailments indeed. And as we go into Q3, it's important to track and watch and really sets the tone for improvement as we go into second half of the year. But demand is critically important. We've got to focus on demand conditions, and starting to see that industrial space, particularly in China, starting to recover, and that will help a lot really all of our businesses.

但其中必定存在一些故意的行為。我們當然會利用自己的人脈盡自己的一份力，這就是我們為照顧客戶以及始終為股東實現價值最大化所做的。所以確實存在一些限制。當我們進入第三季時，追蹤和觀察非常重要，這為我們進入下半年的改進奠定了基調。但需求至關重要。我們必須關注需求狀況，並開始看到工業領域，特別是在中國，開始復甦，這將對我們所有的業務都有很大幫助。

That's pretty helpful. And then as a follow-up, again, sticking with acetyls, what are your latest thoughts on rationalization of Celanese's capacity in Asia? Do you need to get through IMO 2020 and really see how the fuel markets react in Singapore?

這很有幫助。然後作為後續問題，再次堅持乙醯基，您對塞拉尼斯在亞洲的產能合理化有什麼最新想法？您是否需要經歷 IMO 2020 並真正了解新加坡燃料市場的反應？

Yes. That's exactly right. I mean we've announced our intention to do an acetic acid reconfiguration. We are still progressing with that project. But ultimately, the decision -- it is based on productivity, by the way. It is based about utilizing lower raw material costs in the U.S. Gulf Coast and taking capacity out of Asia. But that decision, where to take capacity out of Asia, will depend on exactly what you said. Where do we end up with bunker fuel pricing? What does that mean for Singapore capacity? Where does coal pricing go? What does that mean for Nanjing margins? And we'll make that decision at that time based upon where we are on both of those.

是的。完全正確。我的意思是我們已經宣布了進行乙酸重構的意圖。我們仍在推進該項目。但最終，這個決定是基於生產力的。其基礎是利用美國墨西哥灣沿岸較低的原料成本，並將產能轉移出亞洲。但將產能從亞洲轉移至何處的決定將取決於您所說的具體內容。船用燃料定價最終會如何？這對新加坡的產能意味著什麼？煤炭價格走向何方？這對南京的利潤率意味著什麼？我們將根據目前的情況做出決定。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I just wanted to go back to the guidance for both Q3 and Q4. I guess that looking at Q3 as between Q1 and Q2 would put it maybe at $2.50, and then your statement is to [stay path] to the $10.50, so that would improve maybe around $3. Just -- I just wanted to understand that path a little bit more. I guess the mechanics would be both acetyls and EM going up and margins and price and volume. Where do you see the greatest confidence in that path? Is it in EM or acetyls? And where do you see the risk factors as well?

我只是想回顧一下第三季和第四季的指導。我猜，如果將 Q3 視為 Q1 和 Q2 之間的水平，那麼價格可能為 2.50 美元，然後您的聲明是 [保持路徑] 至 10.50 美元，因此價格可能會上漲至 3 美元左右。只是——我只是想多了解那條路。我猜測其機制是乙醯基和 EM 以及利潤率、價格和數量都會上升。您認為這條道路上最有信心的地方在哪裡？它在 EM 或乙醯基嗎？您還看到了哪些風險因素？

Yes. So the thing we've said, we really feel confident in our ability to continue to do -- deliver acetyls in the $200 million range. Clearly, if we see firming in acetic acid pricing as we've had some indications, if that sustains, that could be further upside for acetyls. And for all the reasons we discussed earlier around destocking, et cetera, we continue -- we expect to see recovery in Engineered Materials as we go forward through the end of the year. And then, of course, since we're talking earnings per share, we also have the impact of the share buyback and seeing kind of the full year impact to that on the numbers.

是的。所以，正如我們所說，我們真的對自己繼續提供價值 2 億美元的乙醯基的能力充滿信心。顯然，如果我們看到乙酸價格如一些跡象所示走強，而這種趨勢持續下去，那麼乙醯乙酸的價格可能會進一步上漲。由於我們之前討論過的有關去庫存等所有原因，我們預計到今年年底工程材料市場將會出現復甦。當然，既然我們談論的是每股盈餘，我們也會考慮股票回購的影響，並看到其對全年數據的影響。

Okay. And do you also expect to update your longer-term targets that you provided last year for '18 through '20 at some point?

好的。您是否也希望在某個時候更新您去年提供的 2018 年至 2020 年的長期目標？

Yes. So we're working now through a strategy refresh. We'll be working through that through the end of the year. Clearly, part of that will be to look at 2020 again and kind of relook at our view for 2020. So hopefully, in the October time frame, we will have that. Certainly, as we work through the strategy and to the end of the year, we'll have a view on 2020 as well as the out years beyond that, yes.

是的。因此，我們現在正在努力更新戰略。我們將在今年年底前完成這項工作。顯然，其中一部分將是再次審視 2020 年，並重新審視我們對 2020 年的看法。因此，希望在十月份，我們能夠實現這一目標。當然，隨著我們制定策略並到今年年底，我們將對 2020 年以及以後的幾年有一個展望，是的。

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with Nomura.

我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫。

In Engineered Materials, how should we think about your margin sustainability? What was the level of margins for wholly owned business in the first half representative of what you could see in the second half?

在工程材料領域，我們該如何看待利潤的可持續性？上半年獨資業務的利潤率水準與下半年的水準如何？

No. I -- look, I think for all the reasons we described, I think we expect second half to be stronger for Engineered Materials than it was for first half. I think certainly for our acquired businesses, we expect further strengthening in those business models and the delivery against the model for those going forward as well as the general improvement we see in market conditions with not anticipating further destocking. So I think for our own [install] businesses as well as for our affiliates, but especially for our own businesses, we expect a stronger second half than first half.

不。我——看，我認為基於我們所描述的所有原因，我認為我們預計下半年工程材料的表現將比上半年更加強勁。我認為，對於我們收購的業務，我們預計這些業務模式將進一步加強，未來這些業務模式的交付將進一步加強，而且我們看到市場狀況將普遍改善，並且預計不會進一步去庫存。因此我認為，對於我們自己的[安裝]業務以及我們的附屬公司，特別是對於我們自己的業務，我們預計下半年將比上半年更加強勁。

Yes. And Aleksey, just typically, volumes are strongest in Asia in Q4. Margins are a little bit lower there versus the Western Hemisphere just with Chinese New Year in Q1 kind of moving into that time frame. So typically, our Q4 margins are a little bit lower, so that would be something to keep in mind as well.

是的。阿列克謝，通常情況下，第四季度亞洲的銷售量最為強勁。與西半球相比，那裡的利潤率略低，因為第一季恰逢中國新年。因此，通常情況下，我們的第四季利潤率會稍微低一些，這也是需要記住的事情。

Great. As a follow-up, you guided third quarter between first -- somewhere between first and second quarter. Should we think about that guidance as sort of the midpoint? Or are you kind of closer to the first quarter level or second quarter level and you are thinking about 3Q?

偉大的。作為後續，您指導了第三季度，介於第一季和第二季之間。我們是否應該將該指導視為中間點？或者您更接近第一季或第二季的水平，並且正在考慮第三季？

I think we're still fairly early as we start the quarter. And so I think it can really be how demand materializes. I think there's been some pretty public announcements from some of that, for example, automakers taking summer shutdowns. But we do expect to kind of more or less see destocking coming to an end as we talked about. So it's in that range. And as we work our way through the quarter, we'll have better idea on where we finish, but it's somewhere in that range.

我認為我們開始本季還為時過早。所以我認為這確實可以成為需求實現的方式。我認為其中一些已經發布了一些相當公開的聲明，例如汽車製造商宣布夏季停產。但正如我們所說的，我們確實預期去庫存化進程或多或少會結束。所以它就在這個範圍內。隨著我們完成本季度的工作，我們將對最終結果有更好的了解，但它就在這個範圍內。

Our next question comes from Jim Sheehan with SunTrust Robinson.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson 的 Jim Sheehan。

Share buybacks were pretty robust in the quarter. Are you still targeting around a 7% share count reduction for the year? It does seem like you're on track to do even more possibly.

本季股票回購相當強勁。今年的目標是否仍是減少 7% 左右的股份？看起來你確實有可能做更多的事情。

Yes. Jim, we've been very open about the fact we're going to be opportunistic with share buyback. We expect this year to be in the range of where we were in 2018. We did $800 million in 2018, and we expect to be in that general range. We're finishing the first half at $500 million. In the last 12 months, we bought back about 9% of the outstanding shares.

是的。吉姆，我們一直非常坦誠地表示，我們將會抓住機會進行股票回購。我們預計今年的業績將與 2018 年持平。2018 年我們的營收為 8 億美元，我們預期營收將維持在這個水準。我們上半年的營收為 5 億美元。在過去的 12 個月中，我們回購了約 9% 的流通股。

And on the full year outlook, $10.50, you're assuming an acceleration towards in the fourth quarter. If you don't see that uptick, what kind of downside do you see for full year 2019?

就全年前景而言，您預計第四季將加速成長至 10.50 美元。如果您沒有看到這種上升趨勢，那麼您認為 2019 年全年會出現什麼樣的下滑趨勢？

Yes. So if we were to see market conditions continue similar to the first half, then we would expect our earnings per share to be down 3% to 5%.

是的。因此，如果我們看到市場狀況繼續與上半年相似，那麼我們預計每股盈餘將下降 3% 至 5%。

Our last question comes from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 Matthew Blair。

Could you talk about how the month of June performed relative to the entire second quarter for both Acetyl Chain and Engineered Materials? It kind of sounds like maybe June was the strongest month of the quarter in EM but potentially one of the weakest months in Acetyl Chain. Is that the right way to think about it?

您能否談談乙醯鍊和工程材料六月相對於整個第二季的表現如何？聽起來六月可能是本季新興市場表現最強勁的月份，但也可能成為乙醯鍊錶現最疲軟的月份之一。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes. So let me talk about EM. So typically, the last month of the quarter is the strongest quarter for EM. That's just typical, so just the way people run their businesses. So definitely, I think June was -- actually probably not our strongest month in the second quarter, but it was a good quarter for us in June.

是的。那麼讓我來談談 EM。因此，通常情況下，季度的最後一個月是新興市場表現最強勁的季度。這很典型，這就是人們經營業務的方式。所以，我肯定，六月實際上可能不是我們第二季表現最強勁的月份，但六月對我們來說是一個好季度。

Interestingly enough, we actually saw increase in auto in China in June, the first increase in sales -- in terms of auto sales that's occurred for -- since May of last year in China. We do -- we don't necessarily think that's sustainable because it was based on some very heavy discounting going on in China to move vehicles that won't meet the new air emission standards that are going into play.

有趣的是，我們實際上看到 6 月中國汽車銷量有所成長，這是自去年 5 月以來中國汽車銷量首次出現成長。我們確實認為這不一定是可持續的，因為這是基於中國正在進行的一些非常大的折扣，以銷售那些不符合即將實施的新空氣排放標準的車輛。

So June was a bit of an interesting month. So some areas of strength, some areas of weakness. I'd say, for EM, not a good month for the end -- a good month but not atypical for the end of the quarter.

所以六月是一個有趣的月份。所以有些領域是優勢，有些領域是劣勢。我想說，對於新興市場來說，這不是一個好的結束月份——一個好的月份，但對於本季末來說並不異常。

I think in acetyls, I don't know that it was significantly different. I can ask Todd to comment. I don't actually think it was particularly strong or weak as comparison to the rest of the quarter.

我認為在乙醯基中，我不知道它是否有顯著差異。我可以請托德發表評論。我實際上並不認為與本季度其他部分相比它表現得特別強或特別弱。

Todd, do you have any...

托德，你有什麼…

No, that's good. I think that's right, Lori. I mean the middle month was probably the lowest of the 3 but not, to your point, pretty balanced overall.

不，那很好。我認為這是對的，洛瑞。我的意思是，中間的一個月可能是三個月中最低的，但就你的觀點而言，總體來說並不十分平衡。

Great. And then, Todd, could you talk about the Chinese VAM market so far in Q3? It looks like pricing might have come off quite a bit already this quarter. There's been some reports of economic run cuts from some of the major producers, including Celanese. Do you have any more color there?

偉大的。然後，Todd，您能談談第三季迄今為止的中國 VAM 市場情況嗎？看起來本季的價格可能已經下降了不少。據報道，包括塞拉尼斯在內的一些主要生產商正在削減經濟運作。那裡還有其他顏色嗎？

Well, again, similar to the comments from before with respect to our operational activities, so we will flex our units as we see the match with customer needs, customer demand, costs, profitability. So we'll do that in all units around the world. So that flexibility is important for us. So I wouldn't -- I would not characterize VAM China as declining at this point. I think it's been fairly healthy as we go Q2 to Q3. More to come, and certainly we got to watch the development over the course of the quarter. But no, I think that was a little too severe of a characterization in terms of the Q-to-Q drop. So we're working hard to deliver the quarter in Q3 as we outlined before.

嗯，再次，與先前關於我們的營運活動的評論類似，因此，當我們看到與客戶需求、客戶需求、成本、盈利能力的匹配時，我們將調整我們的部門。因此我們將在世界各地的所有單位中這樣做。所以靈活性對我們來說很重要。因此，我不會——我不會將 VAM 中國描述為目前處於衰退階段。我認為從第二季度到第三季度，情況一直相當健康。接下來還有更多內容，當然我們必須觀察本季的發展。但不，我認為就季度環比下降而言，這種描述有點太嚴重了。因此，我們正在努力實現第三季的目標，正如我們之前所概述的那樣。

The one thing we do have to navigate through, we do have a turnaround in Q3 in Frankfurt on VAM. So we've got probably a $10 million headwind there that we've got to work around, but that's probably the one thing to -- from an operational perspective we've got to work through.

我們必須克服的一件事是，我們在法蘭克福第三季的 VAM 確實出現了轉折。因此，我們可能面臨 1000 萬美元的逆風，我們必須解決這個問題，但從營運角度來看，這可能是我們必須解決的一件事。

Ladies and gentlemen, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back to Chuck Kyrish for closing comments.

女士們、先生們，問答環節已經結束。現在，我想將電話轉回給查克凱裡什 (Chuck Kyrish)，請他發表最後評論。

Thanks, Rob. Certainly, I would like to thank everyone for listening in today and the good questions. As usual, we're around after the call to address other questions that you have. And Rob, you can -- with that, you can close us out.

謝謝，羅布。當然，我要感謝大家今天的收聽和提出的好問題。像往常一樣，通話結束後我們會解答您的其他問題。羅布，你可以──這樣，你就可以結束我們的討論。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。