塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Celanese Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2018 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Surabhi Varshney, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Surabhi Varshney。請繼續。

Thank you, Anita. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Surabhi Varshney, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today are Mark Rohr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Sutton, Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝你，安妮塔。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2018年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Surabhi Varshney，投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起的還有董事長兼首席執行官馬克·羅爾 (Mark Rohr)、首席財務官斯科特·理查森 (Scott Richardson) 和首席營運官斯科特·薩頓 (Scott Sutton)。

Today's presentation includes statements about expectations for future results and plans that are forward-looking statements. Actual results might differ materially from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ can be found in the posted materials.

今天的演示包括對未來結果和計劃的預期陳述，這些陳述是前瞻性的。實際結果可能與此類陳述有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多信息，請參閱發布的材料。

We will also discuss non-GAAP measures today. You can find information related to these non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website in the Investor Relations section. Form 8-K reports containing all these materials are available on the SEC's EDGAR system.

今天我們也將討論非公認會計準則指標。您可以在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分找到與這些非 GAAP 指標相關的資訊以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳資訊。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告可在美國證券交易委員會的 EDGAR 系統上取得。

Celanese Corporation distributed its third quarter 2018 earnings release via Business Wire and posted slides and remarks about the quarter in the Investor Relations section of our website after market closed. Since we published our comments yesterday, we will now open the line for your questions.

塞拉尼斯公司透過商業電訊發布了 2018 年第三季收益報告，並在市場收盤後在我們網站的投資者關係部分發布了有關該季度的幻燈片和評論。由於我們昨天發表了評論，因此我們現在將開放熱線來回答您的提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

（操作員指示）今天的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Every week, I get some kind of price increase announcement from Celanese in acetyls. So my question is, how are your paint, coatings and polyester fiber customers taking these price increases? And I guess, you've been leading the market in acetyls. If there is new capacity that comes in, would that sort of upset the applecart in terms of the discipline?

每週我都會收到塞拉尼斯乙醯基產品漲價的公告。所以我的問題是，你們的油漆、塗料和聚酯纖維客戶如何看待這些價格上漲？我想，你們在乙醯基市場一直處於領先地位。如果有新的產能投入，從紀律上來說，這是否會打亂現狀？

P.J., this is Mark. Thanks. Let me back up a little bit. There's -- over the years, people have kind of made fun of our price increases. But we did that for a reason, a very specific reason. When you deal with customers, my personal experience is customers don't mind pricing, they just don't want to be disadvantaged or surprised. And we did go to great lengths to very openly share what's going on in the market and how we're responding to that. And we did great lengths working individually with customers to help them moderate and manage and deal with those price increases. So broadly speaking, that's why you see us do what we do. And because of that, we have found that our customers always respond well to what we do. And I mean, sometimes it's tough, but they always respond well. We've not seen any unusual pushback or anything else from pricing. And if you look at the levels of inflation we're seeing today, P.J., you've been around a few years. You've seen lots of cycles of inflation. It's not that severe. I mean, there are different areas where it's hitting us, but it's not unusual, nor is it anything that, a few years ago, we didn't see in a routine kind of basis, a multi -- a $100 million year-over-year kind of raw material inflation numbers. So I know there's a lot of worry about that out there, but I don't quite -- I can't quite quantify in my mind why people are so concerned about it. You got to work hard to stay ahead. We do. We work hard with our customers, but we haven't seen any particular issue with it. And I roll it back to saying as you looked at polyester, no big issue. No big issue there.

P.J.，這是馬克。謝謝。讓我稍微回顧一下。多年來，人們一直嘲笑我們的價格上漲。但我們這樣做是有原因的，一個非常具體的原因。當你與客戶打交道時，我的個人經驗是客戶並不介意定價，他們只是不想受到不利影響或感到驚訝。我們確實不遺餘力地公開分享市場正在發生的事情以及我們對此的反應。我們盡力與客戶進行單獨溝通，幫助他們緩和、管理和應對這些價格上漲。從廣義上講，這就是你看到我們做我們所做的事情的原因。正因為如此，我們發現客戶對我們的工作總是反應良好。我的意思是，有時這很艱難，但他們總是做出很好的反應。我們沒有看到定價方面出現任何異常阻力或其他情況。如果你看看我們今天看到的通貨膨脹水平，P.J.，你已經在這裡幾年了。你已經看過很多次通貨膨脹週期。沒那麼嚴重。我的意思是，它對我們造成了不同程度的影響，但這並不罕見，幾年前，我們經常看到數億美元的同比原材料通膨數字。所以我知道很多人對此感到擔心，但我並不完全明白——我無法在心裡量化為什麼人們如此擔心。你必須努力工作才能保持領先。是的。我們與客戶一起努力工作，但我們沒有發現任何特殊問題。我回到剛才說的，當你觀察聚酯纖維時，沒有什麼大問題。沒什麼大問題。

Yes. Don't get me wrong. I mean, we appreciate your price increases and admire that you're able to raise pricing and recover loss.

是的。別誤會我的意思。我的意思是，我們感謝您的提價，並且欽佩您能夠提高價格並彌補損失。

Yes. No, I didn't take it that way. I just want to make sure people understand that we do that a bit -- we're a bit more public than others, but we do that on purpose and we do it for a reason. And it's really just to focus in and help our customers.

是的。不，我不這麼認為。我只是想確保人們明白我們這樣做——我們比其他人更公開一些，但我們這樣做是故意的，而且是有原因的。這實際上只是為了關注並幫助我們的客戶。

Right. And then just, Mark, good question on your guidance for 2019. You mentioned that gains in EM, Engineered Materials, would be offset by winter seasonality. Was wondering if can just explain what you mean by winter seasonality.

正確的。然後，馬克，關於你對 2019 年的指導，你問了一個很好的問題。您提到，新興市場（EM）、工程材料的收益將被冬季季節性所抵銷。想知道是否可以解釋一下您所說的冬季季節性是什麼意思。

Well, it's -- thank you, P.J. Those of you that have followed things like the coating businesses in China for a while understand that you go through the seasonality kind of periods. And classically, in our business segments, you would have weaker winter seasons or fall seasons, fourth quarters and weaker first quarters. And that varies between -- would vary between coatings businesses in Europe, Chinese New Year, seasonality in auto builds, so there's a lot of things that kind of roll into that generically. It's not a big deal, it's just a natural kind of event that would occur. Similar to weak sales in Europe in August, it's just something that happens. So what we saw last year, though, which is a bit unique, is we didn't see that. We kind of powered through first and fourth. And there were a lot of subtle reasons why that is. We believe that we'll be returning to that kind of normal movement. So again, it's not a big deal other than the fact that we didn't have it this year as we started the year. So that's all we're saying there. That means that fundamentally, we would see our -- over the next several years, we'd see us have stronger middle -- mid-cycles to the earnings year than the end of cycle -- end of -- beginning and end of the year. That's all it means, P.J.

嗯，謝謝你，P.J. 那些長期關注中國塗料行業的人都知道，中國會經歷季節性波動。在我們的業務部門中，通常冬季或秋季、第四季和第一季的業績都會比較疲軟。而且這會因歐洲的塗料業務、中國新年、汽車製造的季節性等因素而有所不同，因此有許多因素會綜合影響這種情況。這沒什麼大不了的，這只是自然發生的事件。與八月份歐洲的銷售疲軟類似，這只是自然而然發生的事情。然而，去年我們看到的情況有點獨特，我們沒有看到這種情況。我們以強勁的勢頭贏得了第一名和第四名。造成這種情況的原因有很多。我們相信我們將會恢復那種正常的運動。所以，除了我們今年年初沒有遇到這種情況之外，這沒什麼大不了的。這就是我們要說的全部。這意味著，從根本上來說，我們會看到——在接下來的幾年裡，我們會看到盈利年度的中期——中期週期比周期末期——年初和年末——表現更強勁。這就是全部意思，P.J.

The next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I noticed in your AI business that your volumes were lower sequentially. And my memory was, you had all kinds of outages in second quarter. So why weren't volumes sequentially weaker?

我注意到你們的人工智慧業務的銷量連續下降。我記得，第二季出現了各種停電現象。那麼，為什麼交易量沒有連續下降呢？

Yes. So Jeff, this is Scott Sutton. Look, I mean, we don't worry too much about sequential volumes when, as you know, we run a model there where we go out and activate our networks. So sometimes, we're in stronger in a certain derivative; and sometimes, we're out of that. You really have to think about the whole year for the health of the business. And for the whole year, even volumes in that business will increase.

是的。傑夫，這是史考特·薩頓。你看，我的意思是，當我們在那裡運行一個模型並激活我們的網路時，我們不會太擔心連續卷。所以有時候，我們在某種衍生性商品上表現更強；而有時候，我們卻表現不佳。您確實必須考慮全年的業務健康發展。而就全年而言，該業務的銷量甚至還會增加。

No, well, it's a very tight market, so -- and you've had very strong year-over-year pricing and you had very good sequential pricing. So were you trying to maximize the profitability of the model in the third quarter?

不，嗯，這是一個非常緊張的市場，所以——你的同比定價非常強勁，而且連續定價也非常好。那麼，您是否試圖在第三季度最大化該模型的盈利能力？

We always try to do that, Jeff. Every minute of the day, we try to do that. And we're in a market, quite a few hundred thousand tons per year in terms of buy or resell in that process. It wasn't necessarily unusual this quarter, that activity, but maybe a little bit more than usual. But yes, we always try to make good decisions to maximize the profit for our shareholders.

我們總是試著這樣做，傑夫。我們每時每刻都在努力做到這一點。我們所在的市場每年有數十萬噸的購買或轉售。本季的這種活動並不一定不尋常，但可能比平常多一點。但是，是的，我們總是努力做出正確的決策，以最大限度地提高股東的利潤。

Yes. And Jeff, I mean, I would really encourage you to think about the whole Acetyl Chain from a volume standpoint, not just what's shown as the AI segment. And think about that on an annual basis as well.

是的。傑夫，我的意思是，我真的鼓勵你從體積的角度來思考整個乙醯鏈，而不僅僅是所顯示的 AI 部分。並且每年都考慮一下這個問題。

The next question comes from Robert Koort of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特·庫爾特。

Mark, I don't know if -- for you or Surabhi or Scott, but I thought the comprehensive review you guys put out was excellent and helps answer a ton of questions ahead of time. And I really appreciate limiting your formal conference call remarks to none so we can ask questions. I wish all companies would approach it the same way. Let me ask my 2 questions, if I could. First on -- I guess for Scott on -- Sutton. On the EM model, do you guys feel it's more of a products expertise or a process expertise? And I guess the question is really aimed at, can you bring in other -- can you start going maybe down the pyramid to more commoditized or maybe less specialized plastics, but employ the same process to the same success? Or do you think it's limited by the types of products that you sell through EM?

馬克，我不知道對你、蘇拉比或斯科特來說，但我認為你們提出的全面評論非常出色，有助於提前回答大量問題。我非常感謝您在電話會議上不發表任何正式言論，以便我們可以提問。我希望所有公司都能以同樣的方式處理這個問題。如果可以的話，請容許我問兩個問題。首先 — — 我想對史考特來說 — — 是薩頓。在 EM 模型中，你們覺得它更多的是產品專業還是流程專業？我想這個問題的真正目的是，你能否引入其他東西——你能否開始沿著金字塔向下走向更商品化或可能不那麼專業化的塑料，但採用相同的流程來獲得同樣的成功？或者您認為它受到您透過 EM 銷售的產品類型的限制？

Yes. Well, Bob, I mean, really, the real intellectual property in that business is the model, right? Now how that manifests itself is being able to go out and match up our broadest solution set to the largest number of customer needs. I mean, clearly, we do well where there's a little bit more sophistication needed, right, by customers. But that also applies to what I'll call mid- and lower-range products as well. It's not exclusive only to those super-sophisticated products.

是的。嗯，鮑勃，我的意思是，實際上，該業務的真正知識產權是模型，對嗎？現在，我們能夠將最廣泛的解決方案與最多的客戶需求相匹配。我的意思是，顯然，當客戶需要更複雜一點的東西時，我們做得很好。但這也適用於我所說的中低檔產品。它並不只限於那些超級複雜的產品。

Got you. And then on the -- I thought you had a very interesting point about your auto demand relative to auto builds. Can you give us any sense from the outside how we can try to predict and calibrate your growth in that market when it seems to be so detached from OEM build rates?

明白了。然後——我認為你對汽車需求與汽車製造之間的關係提出了一個非常有趣的觀點。您能否從外部給我們一些建議，當該市場似乎與 OEM 製造率脫節時，我們如何預測和校準您在該市場的成長？

Yes. I mean, Bob, even across all markets, right, we're not necessarily dependent on absolute growth of the driver volumes in those businesses. But you've got to be able to think about sophisticated solutions. And sometimes, when volumes are declining like they did in auto in the third quarter, there's actually a bigger drive for unique solutions for cost savings or whatever it is from the customer. So I can't give you a way to connect to that. What I will just say is that we grew every single market segment, and that's the plan going forward as well.

是的。我的意思是，鮑勃，即使在所有市場中，我們也不一定依賴這些業務的驅動量的絕對成長。但你必須能夠思考複雜的解決方案。有時，當銷售量下降時，就像第三季汽車銷售下降一樣，客戶實際上更需要獨特的解決方案來節省成本或其他什麼。所以我無法給你連結的方法。我想說的是，我們每個細分市場都在成長，這也是我們未來的計畫。

The next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

Look, there's been a lot of movement in the acetic acid prices. And admittedly, we get that you guys don't necessarily trade on spot. But I guess how are you thinking about how pricing moves as we get into the fourth quarter and into 2019? And as far as 2019 goes, when you think about year-over-year, can it be up, flat? I guess, how are you thinking about it?

你看，醋酸價格波動很大。並且不可否認，我們知道你們不一定會進行現場交易。但我想，當我們進入第四季和 2019 年時，您如何看待價格變動？就 2019 年而言，當您考慮同比情況時，它是上漲還是持平？我猜，您是怎麼想的？

Not a lot, but it's what I would say, John. I mean, we work in that market to try to -- I mean, with all the molecules to try to maximize the net value back to our corporation. Classically, you would see a drift down in pricing a bit in the fourth and a bit in the first. And we certainly started seeing a little bit of that. But that -- there's been announcements by local Chinese companies actually driving pricing back higher in China, which is a bit unusual. So we kind of -- I guess I'd say we just don't think about it too much. We think more about normal seasonality. And normal seasonality looks like it will be a little bit off in the fourth and a little bit off in the first, stronger in the middle quarters. So that's how we're kind of looking at this normalized view year-over-year, rather than an absolute dollar per ton price. Scott, do you have any other thoughts on that?

雖然不多，但這就是我想說的，約翰。我的意思是，我們在那個市場中努力——我的意思是，利用所有的分子來嘗試最大化我們公司的淨值。通常情況下，你會看到價格在第四季度略有下降，在第一季也略有下降。我們確實開始看到一些這樣的情況。但中國本土公司已經宣布將推動中國產品價格回升，有點不尋常。所以我們有點——我想說我們只是不去想太多。我們更考慮正常的季節性。正常的季節性看起來在第四季會略有下降，在第一季會略有下降，在中間季度會更加強勁。這就是我們如何看待同比的正常化觀點，而不是絕對的每噸美元價格。史考特，你對此還有其他想法嗎？

Yes, Mark. I mean, I would just add that the way pricing comes about is by the number of activations we're able to do to our network. And you've seen us increase that, and that will increase next year. And underlying all that is fundamentals are still okay. Effective utilization is still okay. So you put those 2 things together, I think it's an okay situation.

是的，馬克。我的意思是，我只想補充一點，定價的方式是根據我們能夠對我們的網路進行的激活次數來決定的。你已經看到我們增加了這個數字，而且明年還會增加。而這一切的根本原因在於基本面仍然良好。有效利用率還是可以的。所以，把這兩件事放在一起，我認為這是一個可以接受的情況。

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. You had indicated in your -- I guess, your outlook for 2019 that there were going to be potentially some -- I guess, the cost of some several large planned outages. I guess, how should we be thinking about the -- I guess, the delta or the bogey between '19 and '18 in terms of...

知道了。然後只是快速的跟進。我想，您在 2019 年的展望中已經指出，可能會出現一些大規模計劃停電造成的損失。我想，我們應該如何考慮——我想，19 年和 18 年之間的差異或差距...

About $50 million. About $50 million. Yes. So there's -- we have a huge internal turnaround. We're expanding and rebuilding, from an efficiency point of view, one of our POM assets in Ibn Sina. That's a very, very large turnaround, and those are quite expensive.

約5000萬美元。約5000萬美元。是的。所以——我們有一個巨大的內在轉變。從效率的角度來看，我們正在擴建和重建位於伊本西納的 POM 資產。這是一個非常非常大的轉變，而且成本相當高。

The next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

With regard to Engineered Materials, you've put forth a goal of having 5,000 projects in 2020. Can you speak to 2 aspects? First, how do you expect the average project size to trend between now and then? And then second, what sort of level of acquisition activity do you need or not need to achieve that level?

關於工程材料，您提出了 2020 年完成 5,000 個專案的目標。能講一下兩個面向嗎？首先，您預計從現在到那時平均專案規模將如何變化？其次，為了達到這個水平，你需要或不需要什麼級別的收購活動？

Yes, go ahead.

是的，請繼續。

Yes, Kevin. So this is Scott Sutton. In terms of size of average project, I mean, that's going to trend where it's been trending the last couple of years, right? We are going increase the number of projects that we close or get a purchase order for, taking it up to 5,000 by 2020. We do have some assumption of 1 or 2 bolt-ons a year between now and then that helps add to that pipeline. Most of it comes through organic growth, though.

是的，凱文。這是斯科特·薩頓。就平均專案規模而言，我的意思是，這將與過去幾年的趨勢一致，對嗎？我們將增加已完成或獲得採購訂單的項目數量，到 2020 年將達到 5,000 個。我們確實假設從現在到那時每年會有 1 或 2 個附加項目來幫助擴充該管道。不過，其中大部分是透過有機成長實現的。

Okay. And second question, if I may, on capital deployment. You raised your 2020 earnings goal to $12, up from, I think, $11 at the time of your Investor Day in May. Can you update us on what amount of capital deployment is embedded therein? My recollection is that it was excluding repurchases, but inclusive of some bolt-on acquisitions. And I guess related to that, your press release indicates an ability to accelerate repurchases. Obviously, the market's been, shall we say, a little choppy. What are your latest thoughts on that subject?

好的。第二個問題，如果可以的話，是關於資本部署的。您將 2020 年的獲利目標提高到了 12 美元，我認為，這個數字比 5 月投資者日時的 11 美元有所上升。您能否告訴我們其中涉及的資本部署金額是多少？我記得它不包括回購，但包括一些附加收購。我想與此相關，您的新聞稿表明了加速回購的能力。顯然，我們可以說市場有點波動。您最近對這個問題有什麼想法？

Yes, Kevin. This is Scott Richardson. So what we said in Investor Day was that we expected CapEx to be in the $350 million range for the next 3 years. We're going to probably come in around $330 million this year, just with the timing of how the -- it flows through. But we made the announcement on the POM expansion. We have several other very attractive productivity and growth-driven projects that we're looking at. So we're actually expecting that as we get to the end of that 3-year window, that CapEx will actually tick up higher than that $350 million level. We'll probably be kind of in that range, maybe plus/minus a little bit next year. But we should be up to higher levels beginning in 2020 and beyond. And then -- and that should just translate to continued earnings growth, again, through productivity and top line growth going forward. And then on repurchases, yes, our cash flow has been very strong this year. We stated this quarter that we expect to approach $1.2 billion of free cash flow. And so we do have the opportunity, just given where the market has been, to accelerate some of those repurchases that we had originally stated. We had said we were going to do $1 billion over the 3-year period from 2018 to 2020.

是的，凱文。這是史考特·理查森。因此，我們在投資者日上表示，我們預計未來 3 年的資本支出將在 3.5 億美元左右。我們今年的收入可能會達到 3.3 億美元左右，這取決於資金流入的時間。但我們已宣布 POM 擴充。我們正在考慮其他幾個非常有吸引力的生產力和成長驅動型項目。因此，我們實際上預計，隨著這 3 年期的結束，資本支出實際上將上升至高於 3.5 億美元的水平。我們可能會處於這個範圍內，明年可能會有一點點正負變化。但從 2020 年及以後，我們應該會達到更高的水準。然後 — — 這應該會轉化為持續的獲利成長，再次透過生產力和未來收入的成長。關於回購，是的，今年我們的現金流非常強勁。我們本季表示，預計自由現金流將接近 12 億美元。因此，考慮到目前的市場狀況，我們確實有機會加速我們最初提出的一些回購計畫。我們曾說過，我們將在 2018 年至 2020 年的三年內投入 10 億美元。

Kevin, this is Mark. Just real quick on 2 of those topics. It's a bit of an add-on to what Scott has said. I don't know that we really explained well enough the opportunities that we have to incrementally expand our assets. In most cases, Kevin, we can get a phenomenal return with no incremental volume. In other words, we have enough productivity opportunities in front of us. And I know that it's a little bit hard to conceptualize, but we have a global network of assets, and you're playing in a number of different fields as it relates to raw material values; our cost, energy cost; logistic cost today, which are up over $60 million over a 2-year period. Corporately, for a company like ours, there's tremendous value that can be created that way. And so we have a series of those that we're evaluating and teeing up. You've seen some of those announcements that are giving returns in the 25% to 45% kind of range, largely independent of material volume there. That you should expect more capital going into that. And so we haven't put out a number yet. We'll -- I think we'll talk a little bit more at January, Scott, on kind of what we see out there. But certainly, near term, that $350 million kind of number is fine. But as we get out to the 2020 time frame, maybe higher than that. Getting back to cash. We reported this ability to press or being roughly around $1.2 billion this year. So you would expect that to grow as we go out the next couple of years. We've tagged it at $3.6 billion. We're going to work hard to see it higher than that. We think even at constant earnings, we have the ability to kick out more cash. So we're going to look for find -- to find ways to invest that cash in the phenomenal opportunities for us. We're staying on a bolt-on acquisition, where we're able to finance that pretty easily with the cash coming off the business. And then beyond that, we'll look to make sure that our dividend policy reflects our much higher level of cash flow, and then share repurchase, and accelerating those, as Scott has said.

凱文，這是馬克。簡單談談其中兩個主題。這是對斯科特所說內容的一點補充。我不知道我們是否真的充分解釋了我們逐步擴大資產的機會。凱文，在大多數情況下，我們無需增加交易量就能獲得驚人的回報。換句話說，我們面前有足夠的生產力機會。我知道這有點難以概念化，但我們擁有一個全球資產網絡，並且涉及許多不同領域，包括原材料價值、我們的成本、能源成本、今天的物流成本，這些成本在兩年內上漲了 6,000 多萬美元。從企業角度來說，對於我們這樣的公司來說，透過這種方式可以創造巨大的價值。因此，我們正在評估和準備一系列這樣的活動。您可能已經看到一些公告，其中給出的回報率在 25% 到 45% 之間，很大程度上與材料量無關。你應該預期會有更多的資本投入其中。因此我們還沒有公佈具體數字。斯科特，我想我們會在一月份就我們所看到的情況進行更多討論。但可以肯定的是，短期內 3.5 億美元的數字是可以接受的。但隨著我們進入 2020 年，這一數字可能會更高。回到現金。我們報告稱，今年這項壓制能力約為 12 億美元。因此，你可以預期，未來幾年這數字還會成長。我們將其定為 36 億美元。我們將努力工作，使這一數字更高。我們認為，即使收入不變，我們也有能力賺得更多現金。因此，我們將尋找方法將這些現金投資於對我們來說意義非凡的機會。我們將繼續進行附加收購，利用業務產生的現金，我們能夠輕鬆地為其提供資金。除此之外，我們將確保我們的股利政策反映出我們更高水準的現金流，然後回購股票，並加速這些，正如史考特所說的。

The next question comes

下一個問題是

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Anita, could you do that again, please?

安妮塔，你能再做一次嗎？

The next question comes from John Roberts.

下一個問題來自約翰·羅伯茨。

Could you update us on any progress in replacing your filter tow deal that you had with Blackstone with an alternative transaction of some sort?

您能否向我們介紹一下您與黑石集團達成的濾清器拖車交易以某種替代交易的進展情況？

We're still working that, John. It's not a lot of options out there. We haven't found one yet. I remain convinced, as does Scott and Scott, that there are opportunities for us to do things out there maybe more structurally based around manufacturing. But we're working hard to try to find opportunities.

我們仍在努力，約翰。可供選擇的選項並不多。我們還沒找到。我和史考特以及史考特一樣堅信，我們有機會在製造業的基礎上進行更多結構性工作。但我們正在努力尋找機會。

Is there any risk for a second inventory correction in filter tow, given the sort of general weakness in China? Or do you think inventories are low enough there that we don't have that risk right now?

鑑於中國整體經濟疲軟，過濾絲束庫存是否有第二次調整的風險？或者您認為那裡的庫存足夠低，以至於我們現在不存在這種風險？

No, we're pretty comfortable that inventory levels are fine. We don't see that as being a risk. We've been -- the team has been active on trying to drive pricing in the world. We have some traction with that, which is good. And of course, we need that to offset some of the volume declines that are naturally occurring in the business. Not dramatic, but that normal 2% per year.

不，我們對庫存水準感到很滿意。我們不認為這是一種風險。我們團隊一直在積極嘗試推動全球定價。我們對此取得了一些進展，這是件好事。當然，我們需要這樣做來抵消業務中自然發生的部分銷售下降。雖然不太誇張，但每年 2% 的成長率是正常的。

The next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, just on China. Are you seeing some signs of slowing or softening in the economy? And just on these winter shutdowns, I think your prepared comments suggested they might be even more severe this year. But I mean, perhaps, that they could be less severe than last year due to the need to stimulate the economy. Can you just comment on that?

馬克，只談中國。您是否看到經濟放緩或疲軟的跡象？就冬季停工問題而言，我認為您準備好的評論表明，今年的停工情況可能會更加嚴重。但我的意思是，也許由於需要刺激經濟，今年的衝擊可能不如去年那麼嚴重。您能對此發表評論嗎？

Well, I think all 3 of us here would have a slightly different version of it. So I think I'll give my spin, and then Sutton and Richardson can follow. But I mean, if you read publications, China is coming out reporting a little bit lower numbers. For those of us that have had to make a living out of China for a long time, we never necessarily believe the prior numbers anyway. So I don't know quite what to read of whether it's 6.5% growth or 7.5% growth myself. From my point of view, we don't see any dramatic slowing in China. I'm looking at the guys. Is that fair to you?

嗯，我想我們三個人對此都會有稍微不同的看法。所以我想我會給出我的解釋，然後薩頓和理查森可以跟進。但我的意思是，如果你閱讀出版物，你會發現中國公佈的數字略低一些。對於我們這些長期在中國謀生的人來說，我們從來不會相信之前的數字。所以我自己也不知道該如何解讀成長是 6.5% 還是 7.5%。從我的角度來看，我們並沒有看到中國經濟出現任何急劇放緩。我正在看著這些傢伙。這對你公平嗎？

Yes. I mean -- this is Scott Sutton. I mean, our project pipeline is increasing nicely in China in fact. And that's where a good bit of the growth has come from, even in the last quarter. In China and acetyls, we've been able to make a lot more moves or activations as well. So it's really quite active.

是的。我的意思是——這是斯科特·薩頓。我的意思是，事實上我們在中國的專案儲備正在穩定成長。即使在上個季度，這也一直是實現大幅成長的來源。在中國和乙醯基，我們也能夠採取更多的行動或活化。所以它確實非常活躍。

Yes. So if there is a slowdown occurring, I think it's occurring in a thoughtful way, and a way that actually enhances commerce, doesn't detract from commerce. Or plays to our business model's strength may be another way of saying it. Out there, clearly, absolute dollar sales have gone down, but the need to dramatically improve the quality of all those is just kind of off the chart. So we've not -- we just don't quite feel it is what I would say.

是的。因此，如果出現經濟放緩，我認為這是經過深思熟慮的，而且這種放緩實際上會促進商業發展，而不會損害商業發展。或者換句話說，發揮我們商業模式的優勢。顯然，絕對美元銷售額已經下降，但大幅提高所有這些產品的品質的需求卻有點超出預期。所以我們沒有——我們只是不太覺得這就是我想說的。

Got it. And Mark, just on your M&A pipeline. I know you acquired Next Polymers, announced that. How's the rest of M&A pipeline looking for this year and even next year?

知道了。馬克，請談談你的併購管道。我知道您收購了 Next Polymers，並宣布了這一點。今年乃至明年其餘的併購交易前景如何？

Scott, you want to?

史考特，你想嗎？

Yes. David, I would say that we still have a healthy pipeline, particularly in Engineered Materials. And there's good opportunity to do some meaningful bolt-ons next year.

是的。大衛，我想說我們仍然擁有健康的管道，特別是在工程材料領域。明年有很大機會進行一些有意義的補充。

The next question comes from Mike Sison with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

Mark, in terms of auto, just curious, how much left is there to do in a car? I mean, is there a lot of opportunities to continue to convert parts and plastics? And what are you converting now? And what's the opportunity, do you think, over the next couple of years?

馬克，就汽車而言，我只是好奇，汽車裡還有多少事情要做？我的意思是，是否有很多機會繼續轉換零件和塑膠？您現在正在轉換什麼？您認為未來幾年的機會是什麼？

Yes, it's infinite. I mean, what's the car of the future going to look like? It's probably going to be extruded fiberglass. I mean -- so no. We see -- I mean, you can only imagine the thousands of connections, the thousands of discrete parts that go into autos. Each one plays an intrinsic role in the quality of that vehicle, the aesthetics of that vehicle, the efficacy of that vehicle, the fuel efficiency of it. And what the auto dealers are always doing is trading off those value equations. The price of steel is not constant, the price of aluminum is not constant. So you're always getting into a refinement and a movement of that. Electrification is really exciting for us, not only in the lithium energy packets -- pack alone, but the housing for that, the connectors that are going in that; the design of the new consoles for those vehicles; the reduced weight, which dramatically expands the application of reinforced thermoplastics in structural parts. So it's -- I'm sure there's a limit to it, boss, but I kind of don't know what it is.

是的，它是無限的。我的意思是，未來的汽車會是什麼樣子？它很可能是擠壓玻璃纖維。我的意思是——所以不是。我們看到——我的意思是，你只能想像汽車中存在的數千個連接、數千個離散部件。每個部件都在車輛的品質、美觀度、效能和燃油效率方面發揮內在的作用。汽車經銷商一直在做的就是權衡這些價值等式。鋼材價格不穩定，鋁價格也不穩定。因此，您總是會對其進行改進和運動。電氣化對我們來說確實令人興奮，不僅是在鋰電池組本身，還包括其外殼、其中的連接器；這些車輛的新控制台的設計；減輕的重量，這極大地擴展了增強熱塑性塑料在結構部件中的應用。所以——老闆，我確信這是有限制的，但我不知道它是什麼。

Okay, great. And then when I think about the 2020 outlook for the segments, the Acetyl Chain seems to be pretty much there. Can you maybe walk us through some of the upside potential in the next couple of years there? And maybe downside as well.

好的，太好了。然後，當我思考 2020 年各細分市場的前景時，乙醯基鏈似乎基本上已經實現。您能否向我們介紹一下未來幾年該領域的一些上行潛力？也可能有缺點。

Well, the upside potential for that business really is volume. You got an industry that's running in the mid-80% capacity utilization. It has a history of losing, on the average, 3 production assets annually per year. If you look at kind of the run rate of upsets in this business, it averages pretty close to 3 world-scale assets per year are out. So think about 1.5 million tons out of a 16 million, 17 million, 18 million ton market. Last year, we were probably 2.2 million, 2.3 million, something like that. So it's a little bit unusually high from that point of view, but that 100-year storm last year happens every 3, 4, 5 years. So we think we're in a period where the business is going to be tight. We also think that the loose monetary policy of China, which really led to the one negative cycle we had in this business, is gone, and I think gone for good with the blue sky campaign; but also the need to get a return on your investment; and frankly, the inability for China to compete outside of China. So we see ourselves moving from one dip that lasted a long time to one up cycle that's going to last a very long time. And for us, it's going to be solid pricing on incremental volume growth. That's how I would define it.

嗯，該業務的上行潛力確實在於數量。您所在產業的產能利用率達到 80% 左右。該公司平均每年損失 3 項生產資產。如果你看一下這個行業的意外發生率，你會發現平均每年有 3 項世界級資產被淘汰。因此，想像一下在 1600 萬噸、1700 萬噸、1800 萬噸的市場中，有 150 萬噸的產量。去年，我們的人數大概是 220 萬、230 萬左右。從這個角度來看，這個數字有點不尋常，但去年的百年一遇的風暴每 3、4、5 年就會發生一次。因此我們認為我們正處於業務緊張的時期。我們也認為，導致我們在這個行業中陷入惡性循環的中國寬鬆貨幣政策已經消失，而且我認為藍天保衛戰已經徹底結束了；而且我們也不再需要從投資中獲得回報；坦白說，中國已經喪失了在中國以外地區進行競爭的能力。因此，我們看到我們正從一個持續很長時間的低谷轉向一個將持續很長時間的上升週期。對我們來說，這將是基於增量成長的穩定定價。這就是我的定義。

The next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Mark, just to expand on that last point. So you noted acetyl capacity utilization in the mid-80s on a global basis in '18. Do you expect that to get higher in '19 or stay around the same? It just seems like things were a bit tighter in 2018, given some industry disruptions and force majeure. Just trying to get a better sense of how you're thinking about '19 specifically.

馬克，我只是想進一步闡述最後一點。因此，您注意到 18 年全球乙醯基產能利用率達到了 80 年代中期。您預計 19 年這一數字會更高還是保持不變？鑑於一些行業混亂和不可抗力，2018 年的情況似乎更加緊張。只是想更了解您對 19 年的具體看法。

Well, we -- when we do these kind of things, we don't really fantasize about things on the fringe that could happen. So we kind of look at it as being pretty similar to this. I mean, demand will creep you up a little bit, but we're doing like a slight incremental expansion. Others may be doing -- will -- pushed out more volume. So we think it's going to stay, for the most part, in the mid-80s, maybe pick up one turn or something.

嗯，我們——當我們做這些事情時，我們實際上並不會幻想可能發生的邊緣事情。因此，我們認為它與此非常相似。我的意思是，需求會稍微增加一點，但我們正在進行輕微的漸進式擴張。其他人可能正在做——將會——推出更多的交易量。因此我們認為，在大多數情況下，它將保持在 80 年代中期，也許會有所回升。

Okay. And then on the EM segment, operating margins inflected higher year-over-year for 3Q after several quarters of declines due to both higher raw material cost and also some of the initial dilution from acquisitions. Looking back at 2016, margins were sort of in the mid-30s range for that segment. When do you think you can get back to those types of levels? Or is the mix of the business just different versus back then?

好的。然後在新興市場領域，由於原材料成本上升以及收購帶來的一些初始稀釋，營業利潤率在連續幾個季度下滑之後，第三季度同比有所上升。回顧 2016 年，該部門的利潤率約為 35% 左右。您認為什麼時候可以恢復到那種程度？或者說，現在的業務結構與以前有什麼不同？

Yes. I mean -- this is Scott Sutton. Look, I think we're operating right now, particularly this most recent quarter, is a good, healthy place for that business to be because we can grow it at that level, we can add on bolt-on acquisitions, lift their margins up and really add a lot of value to the company. To me, it's healthy where it is.

是的。我的意思是——這是斯科特·薩頓。看，我認為我們現在的營運狀況，特別是最近這個季度，對於該業務來說是一個良好、健康的狀態，因為我們可以在這個水平上發展它，我們可以增加附加收購，提高他們的利潤率，並真正為公司增加很多價值。對我來說，它現在的狀態是健康的。

The next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess, just wanted to understand, maybe, the raw material picture. There was some increase in some of the feedstocks over the last little while. Would that have any impact on you guys going forward, given your ethylene purchases?

我想，也許只是想了解原料的圖片。近期部分原料價格上漲。考慮到你們的乙烯採購量，這會對你們未來的發展產生什麼影響嗎？

Ethylene specifically?

具體是乙烯嗎？

Specifically on ethylene? Yes.

特別是乙烯？是的。

Yes. But I mean...

是的。但我的意思是...

Yes, I mean -- okay, I'll answer it more broadly. Okay. I'll answer it more broadly. I mean, the reality is if you look at third quarter, every single business, right, energy and raws, went up. Every single business, really, we're able to cover that off with price. So look, I mean, we could feel some more impacts from that, but I think we're set up to completely cover that all.

是的，我的意思是——好的，我會更廣泛地回答這個問題。好的。我會更廣泛地回答這個問題。我的意思是，現實情況是，如果你看看第三季度，你會發現每一項業務，包括能源和原材料，都在上漲。事實上，對於每一筆業務，我們都可以透過價格來彌補。所以，我的意思是，我們可能會感受到更多影響，但我認為我們已經做好了全面覆蓋的準備。

And then, just kind of -- just understanding the 3-year outlook on an earnings basis. What kind of cash deployment do you have in there? And how is that split between buybacks and acquisitions?

然後，只是有點——只是了解基於盈利的 3 年前景。您在那裡部署了什麼樣的現金？回購與收購之間的分配如何？

Yes. I mean, like we said, we have $1 billion earmarked for buybacks at this point in time, and we'll bring some of that forward and front-load it. We will continue to deploy cash back into the business as our first choice through organic investment. And we had earmarked $1 billion, and we said that may tick a little higher than that towards the back end of these 3 years. And then on acquisitions, we had said about $1 billion for acquisitions over the same period. So now we haven't done -- on a ratable basis this year, we haven't done that level. But as Scott said, we have some attractive things that we see potentially coming next year.

是的。我的意思是，就像我們所說的那樣，我們目前已預留了 10 億美元用於回購，我們將把其中的一部分提前到位。我們將繼續透過有機投資將現金重新投入到業務中，這是我們的首選。我們已經撥出了 10 億美元，我們表示，這 3 年的後期，這一數字可能會略有上升。關於收購，我們表示同期的收購金額約為 10 億美元。所以現在我們還沒有做到——以今年的按比例計算，我們還沒有達到那個水準。但正如斯科特所說，我們看到一些有吸引力的事情可能會在明年發生。

Right. But is there capacity to increase those, given the over $3 billion that you could generate over 3 years?

正確的。但考慮到你們可以在 3 年內創造 30 多億美元的收入，是否有能力增加這些收入呢？

Sure.

當然。

Yes, absolutely. And we're going to continue to be opportunistic with what's in front of us.

是的，絕對是。我們將繼續抓住眼前的機會。

The next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Two quick ones. On EM, you normally don't discuss trends on a regional basis. And so I'm just curious, as you think about the way the project pipeline is evolving, if the large customers start rejiggering their global supply chains over the next 2, 3 years, would you see any hiccup in the pattern? Or how would you flex to adjust for that? And secondly, Mark, your comment about productivity and taking advantage of more opportunities across the system. Some companies characterize this in terms of spreads, and some characterize it in terms of taking advantage of volatility. And a few years ago, you used to talk about having $100 million or so, several chunks of headwinds that would happen under the surface, and you would try and offset them. Is the issue sort of spreads or volatility? Or is it just that there's fewer adverse areas of lumpiness that we've seen in the last few years?

兩個簡單的。在新興市場，通常不會以區域為基礎來討論趨勢。所以我很好奇，當您考慮專案管道的發展方式時，如果大客戶在未來 2 到 3 年內開始重新調整其全球供應鏈，您會看到模式出現任何問題嗎？或者你會如何靈活地調整以適應這種情況？其次，馬克，您談到了生產力以及利用整個系統的更多機會。有些公司用利差來描述這種情況，有些公司用利用波動性來描述這種情況。幾年前，您曾經談到擁有 1 億美元左右的資金，在暗地裡會遇到幾大阻力，您會嘗試去抵消它們。問題在於利差還是波動性？還是只是過去幾年我們看到的不利的凹凸區域減少了？

So Scott, why don't you take the first one, which is sort of a view of changes in the world in EM, supply chains moving around, and what impact that would have on our business.

那麼史考特，為什麼不選擇第一個，也就是對新興市場世界變化、供應鏈流動的看法，以及這些變化會對我們的業務產生什麼影響。

Yes, sure. I mean, Laurence, look, in our EM business, I mean, we are growing in every region. And yes, you see very short periods where it's slower in one than the other. But we are positioned globally to put out solutions and move our supply chain around as we need to. So we don't see any kind of rejiggering of customers' supply chains and so forth impacting that business at all.

是的，當然。勞倫斯，看，在我們的新興市場業務中，我們在每個地區都在成長。是的，你會看到在很短的時間內其中一個的速度比另一個慢。但我們在全球範圍內定位，以便根據需要提供解決方案並轉移我們的供應鏈。因此，我們並未看到客戶供應鏈的任何重新調整等對該業務產生任何影響。

Okay. So you asked a lot of question, Laurence, there on the last bit, so I'll try to start with productivity and carry that forward. So some folks on the call may not remember that the '12 -- really, the '13, '14 kind of time frame, there was tremendous headwinds that faced our company. Orders of magnitude of $500 million between methanol and the loss of the Southern contract. We had a huge step-change almost overnight. And FX, it was a really big -- impactful for us. We had gone out in a very boastful way and lay claim to profitability from ethanol, which really wasn't going to happen in there. Through that period, we overcame those with a very strong productivity effort and moving our business models and had double-digit earnings as well through that period. Since that time, we have doubled the profitability of this company. 3 years, we have doubled the profitability of the company. And we've done that in a real fundamental way, employing these business models directly to leverage our ability to manage complexity that exists out there. And that's complexity that can be through volatility. It can be through trade flow movements. It can be, and in EM business is, related to the opportunities we bring these customers to create unique solutions, and therefore, differentiate themselves in the marketplace. Those models have been more and more refined. We're going through another element of full refinement today, based on our learnings over the last 12, 18 months. And we think those models have yet to fully realize their potential. So we don't -- we stay right there. As it relates to our pure productivity through that period of time, if you look at it over the last couple of years, we had actually dropped our net productivity contributions. And that's not because there's no opportunities there, but we had really more to do, I'd say, with the work on the model and that sort of thing. Now we're in a period where we can take a different look at productivity, which is to say, we have volume growth opportunities out there, which gives us then comfort to look at embedded inefficiencies that exist from different regions of the world in different assets and take a position relative to that. So we think we have a new ground of productivity in front of us, that will be a CapEx-related productivity, that can generate some very, very high returns. And I mentioned 2 of them that we just talked about here over the last several days. So we think that we'll be able to move into that arena quite successfully. And we see that as enhancing the earnings capability of the corporation, which gives us comfort this level that we're at today, in a broad sense, is like a resetting of a foundational level. That doesn't mean we're up every day a little bit more than the next day, but what it does mean, we've got a different foundation base to work from. And we don't see any reason why this should really change dramatically. Yes, trade flows move around, but they have been moving around. Companies move around, but that's gone on. China's strong, China's weak. That's -- all that stuff has happened throughout that time period that we've been under the last several years, and we've been able to manage through that. So we don't have too much anxiety about it. And to be honest, we don't tend to micromanage it terribly. We don't spend a lot of time worrying about it. We look at the big fundamental. So you need to think of Celanese, and you know us well, as a company that has really good business models; generates a lot of profitability through thick and thin; a lot of cash through thick and thin; and most importantly, we don't do stupid things. We manage that cash very well and we get it back to you guys as best we can.

好的。勞倫斯，你在最後一點上問了很多問題，所以我將嘗試從生產力開始，並將其繼續推進。因此，電話會議中的一些人可能不記得 2012 年——實際上是 2013 年、2014 年那段時間，我們公司面臨著巨大的阻力。甲醇和南方合約損失之間的差距高達 5 億美元。我們幾乎在一夜之間就發生了巨大的變化。FX 對我們來說影響非常大。我們以一種非常誇張的方式宣稱可以從乙醇中獲利，但這其實是不可能的。在那段時期，我們透過大力提高生產力和轉變商業模式克服了困難，並實現了兩位數的收益。自那時起，我們已使這家公司的獲利能力翻了一番。3年時間，我們讓公司的獲利翻了一番。我們從根本上做到了這一點，直接運用這些商業模式來發揮我們管理現有複雜性的能力。這就是透過波動性實現的複雜性。可以透過貿易流動來實現。在 EM 業務中，它可以與我們為這些客戶帶來的創造獨特解決方案的機會有關，從而使他們在市場上脫穎而出。這些模型已經越來越完善。今天，我們將根據過去 12 至 18 個月的經驗教訓，進行另一項全面改進。我們認為這些模型尚未充分發揮其潛力。所以我們不會——我們就待在那裡。就我們那段時期的純粹生產力而言，如果你回顧過去幾年，你會發現我們的淨生產力貢獻其實已經下降了。這並不是因為那裡沒有機會，而是我想說，我們確實還有很多工作要做，像是模型方面的工作等等。現在我們正處於一個可以用不同的眼光看待生產力的時期，也就是說，我們擁有產量成長的機會，這讓我們可以輕鬆地看到世界不同地區不同資產中存在的內在效率低下，並據此採取相應立場。因此，我們認為我們面前有一個新的生產力領域，這將是與資本支出相關的生產力，可以產生非常高的回報。我提到了其中的兩個，我們幾天前剛剛在這裡討論過。因此我們認為我們將能夠非常成功地進入該領域。我們認為這提高了公司的盈利能力，這讓我們對今天所處的水平感到欣慰，從廣義上講，這就像是基礎水平的重置。這並不意味著我們每天都比第二天起床多一點，而是意味著我們有一個不同的工作基礎。我們不認為有任何理由認為這種情況應該會發生巨大改變。是的，貿易流動是流動的，但它們一直在流動。公司不斷變動，但一切已成過去。中國強，中國弱。所有這些事情都是在過去幾年的那段時間發生的，而我們能夠應對這些事情。所以我們對此並不太擔心。老實說，我們並不會對其進行過於細緻的管理。我們不會花太多時間擔心這件事。我們關注的是整體基本面。所以你需要把塞拉尼斯看作是一家擁有非常好的商業模式的公司；無論順境或逆境，我們都能產生大量的盈利能力；無論順境還是逆境，我們都能產生大量的現金；最重要的是，我們不會做傻事。我們很好地管理了這些現金，並盡最大努力將其回饋給你們。

Next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Quick question. A couple of years ago, your Singapore plant was fairly uncompetitive in a low oil environment, and then you had redone your carbon monoxide contract with Linde, making it competitive. Do we need to worry, with rising oil prices, that, that plant can become uncompetitive again?

快速提問。幾年前，您的新加坡工廠在低油價環境下相當缺乏競爭力，後來您與林德重新簽訂了一氧化碳合同，使其具有了競爭力。隨著油價上漲，我們是否需要擔心工廠再次失去競爭力？

Well, yes, it's very dependent on oil and as it relates to bunker fuel. And as you know, that's gone through its own set of volatilities around concerns -- or not concerns, but uncertainty about how to manage the move to low sulfur bunker. So yes, as that unit gets pressed, it's going to be a little bit less competitive. It still is a good unit for us in operation. So you could enter a period, if we get back above $100, where that unit is less competitive. Having said that, we have opportunities to do other things that can serve us without. So we don't -- we're not particularly worried about it.

嗯，是的，它非常依賴石油，並且與船用燃料有關。如你所知，這經歷了一系列圍繞擔憂的波動——或者不是擔憂，而是對如何管理低硫燃料轉換的不確定性。所以是的，隨著該單位受到壓力，其競爭力將會下降一些。對於我們的營運來說它仍然是一個很好的單位。因此，如果我們回到 100 美元以上，你就會進入一個時期，這個時期的單位競爭力就會降低。話雖如此，我們仍然有機會做其他對我們有益的事情。所以我們並不——我們並不特別擔心這一點。

Yes, and we did do some things a few years ago, as you alluded to, Duffy, that does give us a little bit more flexibility in those high oil environments. So we are exposed, but not as much as we were in the past.

是的，正如你所提到的，達菲，幾年前我們確實做了一些事情，這確實讓我們在高油價環境中有了更多的靈活性。因此，我們雖然受到了影響，但不像過去那麼多。

Okay. And then the announcement you made on Germany, can we read into that

好的。那麼，您關於德國的聲明，我們能解讀一下嗎？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Duffy, you're breaking up a bit. Can you repeat that? The announcement? We lost you after you said, "announcement."

達菲，你有點崩潰了。你能重複一遍嗎？公告？當你說「公告」後我們就失去你了。

All right. I was just going to say, with the announcement you made on Germany, can we read into that, that the Ibn Sina plant that is now on-stream is filling out pretty nicely? And then if that's fair, roughly how much is Ibn Sina contributing year-over-year? Because we're still annualizing, I think, the bump up in your ownership stake there.

好的。我只是想說，根據您關於德國的聲明，我們是否可以推斷，目前投入生產的伊本西納工廠運作非常順利？如果公平的話，伊本西納每年的貢獻大概是多少？因為我認為我們仍在按年計算您的所有權份額的增長。

Duffy, this is Scott Sutton. So I mean, the announcement we made in Germany about expanding that plant, right, is strictly because we're in a real healthy business situation there. Demand/supply is tight in POM, and it's time to add a little bit. And yes, I think you can read into that, that the Ibn Sina POM plant is running very satisfactory. You do see our equity earning in that business up. Almost all of that increase is due to better performance out of Ibn Sina.

達菲，這是斯科特·薩頓。所以我的意思是，我們在德國宣布擴建該工廠，完全是因為我們在那裡的經營狀況非常健康。POM 的需求/供應緊張，是時候增加一點了。是的，我想您可以看出，伊本西納 POM 工廠的運作非常令人滿意。您確實看到我們在該業務中的股權收益上升。幾乎所有的成長都歸功於伊本西納 (Ibn Sina) 的出色表現。

Next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

If I read your prepared comments correctly, I saw you called out 4% organic volume growth in EM, and since, took it back to 6% to 9%. And then I guess the 4% was maybe due to some of the pricing you took. I'm just curious, are the customers buying less from you? Are they buying more from others? Or so is this a push out of demand around pricing? Or did you actually cede some share for the meantime?

如果我沒看錯的話，我看到您提到新興市場的有機銷售成長率為 4%，但後來又回落到 6% 至 9%。然後我猜 4% 可能是由於您採取的一些定價。我只是好奇，顧客從您這裡購買的東西少了嗎？他們從其他人那裡購買了更多東西嗎？還是這是對定價需求的推動？或者你實際上暫時放棄了一些股份？

Yes. Well, really, I mean, the main driver of that -- and again, you can't look too much at quarter-to-quarter, but main driver behind that was we have lifted price quite a bit to overcome the raw material inflation. So we ended up being successful at getting all that price and still growing volume as well. So I don't read any kind of fundamental shift in demand in that.

是的。嗯，實際上，我的意思是，造成這種情況的主要驅動因素——再說一次，你不能過多地關注季度變化，但背後的主要驅動因素是我們大幅提高了價格，以克服原材料通膨。因此，我們最終成功地獲得了全部價格，並且銷量仍在不斷增長。因此，我沒有看到需求出現任何根本轉變。

Okay. And just as a follow-up. On the goal of the 5,000 project wins, how would you characterize -- do you have the intellectual capital needed to get to 5,000 projects at a time? And do you have the sort of physical R&D footprint necessary? Or would there be more investments in people and facilities necessary to scale up that way?

好的。這只是後續行動。對於贏得 5,000 個專案的目標，您如何描述——您是否擁有一次性贏得 5,000 個專案所需的智力資本？您是否擁有必要的實體研發足跡？或者是否需要對人員和設施進行更多投資才能擴大規模？

Well, we -- I mean, we continue to invest in people. We have a very good team growing each day in terms of capability. We continue to invest in R&D. A lot of it is incremental capability as we improve the model as well.

嗯，我們——我的意思是，我們繼續對人才進行投資。我們擁有一支非常優秀的團隊，其能力每天都在不斷成長。我們持續投資於研發。隨著我們不斷改進模型，其中許多都是增量能力。

And then on the physical side of things? Any more...

那麼從物質方面來看呢？還有嗎...

Yes, on the physical side of things, I mean, you've seen us make quite a number of announcements. We're in the process of expanding compounding capability in at least 4 or 5 sites. We're expanding 2 of our polymers that we've made announcements on as well, both POM and our GUR ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene. There will be some more of those.

是的，從物質方面來看，我的意思是，你已經看到我們發布了相當多的公告。我們正在至少 4 或 5 個站點擴大複合能力。我們正在擴大我們已經宣布的兩種聚合物，即 POM 和 GUR 超高分子量聚乙烯。還會有更多這樣的。

The next question comes from Jim Sheehan with SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Jim Sheehan。

In the Engineered Materials' organic growth, you just spoke to the deceleration that occurred because of the higher pass-through of raw materials. Sounds like you did quite well in automotive. So which end market actually experienced that demand disruption? Was it medical? Was it industrial or something else? And what gives you the confidence in getting a reacceleration in that organic growth to the high single digits?

在工程材料的有機成長中，您剛才談到由於原料的通過率較高而導致的成長減速。聽起來你在汽車領域做得很好。那麼，哪個終端市場實際上經歷了需求中斷？它是醫學上的嗎？它是工業品還是其他東西？那麼，什麼讓您有信心將有機成長重新加速到高個位數呢？

Yes, sure. I'll start and then ask Scott run into the details. I think I would -- Jim, I would -- I think it's best to look at this not as markets. We talked at the -- at our April session with you guys about the embedded growth process that we deal with. So we look beyond markets in a specific application. So for us, it's a very generic world out there, but generic being that everything we do is specific to some unique trait and ability we can have and is independent of the market. So we don't look at these like markets, and we don't analyze our movements nor do we put our teams in place, we don't do anything relative to markets. We really work at it as application, differentiation. And if we do anything, we lump together simple applications to create programs that go into certain arenas. And so it's -- I'd like to answer your question, but we really don't look at it even that way.

是的，當然。我先開始，然後請斯科特詳細說明。我想我會——吉姆，我會——我認為最好不要把這看作市場。我們在四月的會議上與你們討論了我們處理的嵌入式成長過程。因此，我們的眼光不限於特定應用的市場。所以對我們來說，這是一個非常普通的世界，但普通之處在於，我們所做的一切都是針對我們所能擁有的一些獨特特質和能力的，並且與市場無關。因此，我們不會將這些視為市場，我們不會分析我們的動向，也不會派遣我們的團隊，我們不會做任何與市場相關的事情。我們確實致力於將其作為應用和區分。如果我們做任何事情，我們都會將簡單的應用程式整合在一起，以創建進入特定領域的程式。所以——我想回答你的問題，但我們實際上並沒有這樣看待它。

The next question comes from Alex Yefremov with Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題來自野村證券的 Alex Yefremov。

Understanding that your POM portfolio is mostly differentiated. If you look at the industry as a whole, is POM operating at a higher rate at this point?

了解您的 POM 投資組合大多有差異。如果從整個產業來看，POM 目前的營運率是否更高？

Yes. I mean, the answer is yes. And we have a lot of differentiated products, we also have some more standard products as well. But the whole industry is operating at a pretty high rate.

是的。我的意思是，答案是肯定的。我們有很多差異化產品，也有一些更標準的產品。但整個產業的運作速度相當高。

Understood. And on your guidance for 2019, is there any buyback or M&A assumption within that?

明白了。在您對 2019 年的指導中，是否包含任何回購或併購假設？

Yes. What -- yes, not really. If you look at where we are from an earnings point of view, the buyback we're talking about is a pretty de minimis effect, and so it would imply that we have the ability to forecast things in the $0.10, $0.20 kind of range, and we don't have that ability. So no, not in there.

是的。什麼——是的，不是真的。如果從獲利的角度來看我們現在的情況，我們所談論的回購的影響是非常小的，所以這意味著我們有能力預測 0.10 美元、0.20 美元左右的範圍，但我們沒有這種能力。所以不，不在那裡。

Anita, let's take one more question, and it will be the last for the call.

安妮塔，我們再回答一個問題，這將是這次電話會議的最後一個問題。

The last question comes from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

最後一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 Matthew Blair。

The release mentioned that project wins in EM were up 58% year-over-year. Could you provide a breakout or maybe any sort of general commentary on how much of this growth is coming from existing customers and how much is coming from new customers? And where do you see the most opportunity going forward?

新聞稿提到，新興市場的中標項目數量年增了 58%。您能否提供一個細分或任何一般性評論，說明這種成長有多少來自現有客戶，有多少來自新客戶？您認為未來最大的機會在哪裡？

Yes, I mean, that's right. I mean, Q3 of this year versus Q3 of last year, it is up those kind of percentages. We did close 925 projects, and that comes from a real mix. I'm not going to give you the exact numbers. But I think it's safe to say that both existing customers, our comprehensive solutions portfolio is being applied to a bigger set of their needs. And at the same time, we're also out there trying to translate those wins or those technologies to a new set of customers. So it really is both.

是的，我是說，沒錯。我的意思是，今年第三季與去年第三季相比，成長了這樣的百分比。我們確實完成了 925 個項目，這些項目來自真實的組合。我不會告訴你確切的數字。但我認為可以肯定地說，對於現有客戶來說，我們的綜合解決方案組合正在滿足他們更廣泛的需求。同時，我們也在努力將這些勝利或技術轉化為一群新的客戶。所以其實兩者皆有。

Great. And then in the fuel chain, we saw reports of a fair amount of planned and unplanned maintenance in Singapore and Nanjing in Q3. But then, obviously, the results were really strong. So I curious if you felt like you left any opportunity on the table in Q3. And if so, how much?

偉大的。然後在燃料鏈中，我們看到有關新加坡和南京在第三季度進行了大量計劃內和計劃外維護的報告。但顯然，結果確實非常好。所以我很好奇您是否覺得您在第三季錯過了任何機會。如果是的話，金額是多少？

No, no, we didn't. We really don't leave a lot of opportunity on the table, boss. I mean, we're vacuuming every corner of the world to do what we can to make money.

不，不，我們沒有。老闆，我們確實沒有放棄很多機會。我的意思是，我們正在走遍世界的每個角落，盡我們所能賺錢。

We will now conclude the call. Thank you for your questions and for listening in this morning. We are available after the call to address any further questions you may have. Anita, please close the call.

我們現在結束通話。感謝您的提問以及今天早上的聆聽。通話結束後，我們仍可解答您可能有的任何其他問題。安妮塔，請掛斷電話。

This conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

此次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。