塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Celanese Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2017 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Surabhi Varshney, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Surabhi Varshney。請繼續。

Thank you, Austin. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Surabhi Varshney, Vice President, Investor Relations. With me today are Mark Rohr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Sutton, Chief Operating Officer; and Kevin Oliver, Chief Accounting Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，奧斯汀。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2017年第四季財報電話會議。我叫 Surabhi Varshney，投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼首席執行官馬克·羅爾 (Mark Rohr)、首席營運官斯科特·薩頓 (Scott Sutton) 和首席會計官兼臨時首席財務官凱文·奧利弗 (Kevin Oliver)。

Celanese Corporation's fourth quarter 2017 earnings release was distributed via Business Wire yesterday after market close. Slides and prepared remarks for the quarter were also posted on our website at www.celanese.com in the Investor Relations section.

塞拉尼斯公司 2017 年第四季財報於昨日收盤後透過 Business Wire 發布。本季的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿也發佈在我們的網站 www.celanese.com 的投資者關係部分。

As a reminder, some of the matters discussed today and included in our presentation may include forward-looking statements concerning, for example, our future objectives and plans. Please note the cautionary language contained in the posted slides.

提醒一下，今天討論並包含在我們簡報中的一些事項可能包括前瞻性陳述，例如有關我們未來的目標和計劃。請注意所張貼幻燈片中的警告性語言。

Also, some of the matters discussed and presented include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Explanations of these measures and the reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures are included with the press release and on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financial Information. The earnings release and non-GAAP reconciliations have been submitted to the SEC on Form 8-K. The slides and prepared comments have also been submitted to the SEC on a separate Form 8-K.

此外，討論和提出的一些事項還包括對非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。這些指標的解釋以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳均包含在新聞稿中以及我們網站的「財務資訊」下的「投資者關係」部分。收益報告和非公認會計準則對帳單已以 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。幻燈片和準備好的評論也已透過單獨的 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

This morning, we'll begin with introductory comments from Mark Rohr and then open up for your questions. I'd like to turn the call over to Mark now.

今天上午，我們將先由馬克‧羅爾 (Mark Rohr) 作介紹性評論，然後回答大家的提問。我現在想把電話轉給馬克。

Great. Thanks, Surabhi, and welcome, everyone, listening in today. Our prepared comments were shared with earnings yesterday, so we'll kick off with a few comments and then take your questions.

偉大的。謝謝，蘇拉比，歡迎大家今天的收聽。我們準備好的評論已於昨天與收益分享，因此我們將首先發表一些評論，然後回答您的問題。

Let me first highlight our recent agreement to acquire Omni Plastics. Omni specializes in custom compounding of nylon, and combining Omni with our Nilit and SO. F.TER. acquisitions creates a global nylon franchise and increases nylon to 15% of AEM's net sales. We expect the acquisition to be EPS-neutral for 2018 and contribute about $0.10 once synergies are achieved, and we're looking forward to working alongside our very capable colleagues at Omni.

首先，我要強調我們最近達成的收購 Omni Plastics 的協議。Omni 專門從事尼龍的客製化複合，並將 Omni 與我們的 Nilit 和 SO 結合。F.TER。收購創造了全球尼龍特許經營權，並將尼龍的銷售額提高到 AEM 淨銷售額的 15%。我們預計此次收購對 2018 年每股收益將產生中性影響，一旦實現協同效應，將貢獻約 0.10 美元，我們期待與 Omni 非常有能力的同事一起工作。

Now with the tow JV, we have received regulatory approval in 4 of the 6 jurisdictions. In Europe, as far as the Commission Phase 2 review process, we received a statement of objections, which we look forward to addressing in the next few weeks. We strongly believe in the value created by the JV and in preparation have completed the creation of a new legal entity and an operating structure for the cellulose derivatives business.

現在透過合資公司，我們已獲得 6 個司法管轄區中的 4 個司法管轄區的監管批准。在歐洲，就委員會第二階段審查程序而言，我們收到了一份異議聲明，我們期待在接下來的幾週內解決。我們堅信合資企業所創造的價值，並已做好為纖維素衍生物業務建立新的法律實體和營運結構的準備。

Turning to 2017 fully consolidated results. I'm pleased to report GAAP earnings of $6.19 per share and record adjusted earnings of $7.51 per share. The Acetyl Chain core income was $575 million, a 27% improvement over 2016. Core income margin of 17.1% exceeded previous high in 2016 by 260 basis points. Our asset base that spans the globe, combined with a unique commercial flexibility, enabled us to respond swiftly to industry and market dynamics throughout the year.

回顧 2017 年全面合併業績。我很高興地報告每股 GAAP 收益為 6.19 美元，調整後每股收益為 7.51 美元。乙醯鏈核心收入為 5.75 億美元，比 2016 年成長 27%。核心營收利潤率為 17.1%，比 2016 年的最高點高出 260 個基點。我們的資產基礎遍佈全球，加上獨特的商業靈活性，使我們能夠全年快速回應產業和市場動態。

Materials Solutions generated core income of $900 million in 2017 and net sales of $2.9 billion, both records.

材料解決方案業務 2017 年核心收入達 9 億美元，淨銷售額達 29 億美元，均創歷史新高。

Advanced Engineered Materials set new highs with segment income of $567 million, an expansion of $88 million over 2016 from growth in base business, new acquisitions and higher affiliate earnings.

先進工程材料部門收入創下新高，達到 5.67 億美元，較 2016 年增加 8,800 萬美元，這得益於基礎業務的成長、新收購和附屬公司收益的增加。

AEM's segment income margin for 2017 was 27.1%, 610 basis points lower than the prior year, mainly from margins-dilutive acquisitions. Volume increased 46% in 2017 year-over-year from growth in organic polymers and acquisitions.

AEM 2017 年的分部收入利潤率為 27.1%，比上年低 610 個基點，主要由於稀釋利潤率的收購。由於有機聚合物的成長和收購，2017 年產量年增 46%。

Consumer Specialties segment income was $333 million and declined year-over-year due to lower tow price and volume in 2017, which reflected lower demand in depressed utilization rates across the tow industry.

消費品特種化學品部門收入為 3.33 億美元，年減，原因是 2017 年拖車價格和數量下降，反映出整個拖車產業利用率低迷導致需求下降。

Shifting to 2018. We are starting with strong momentum in the Acetyl Chain and expect a combination of our strategic and global footprint and a flexible supply chain to drive $0.35 to $0.45 of growth in adjusted earnings per share.

時間轉到 2018 年。我們在乙醯基鏈領域發展勢頭強勁，預計我們的策略和全球佈局以及靈活的供應鏈將推動調整後每股收益成長 0.35 美元至 0.45 美元。

In AEM, growth in both new and legacy polymers, along with increasing success in China, partially offset by planned turnarounds, puts adjusted earnings per share growth at AEM at about $0.50 to $0.60 per share.

在 AEM，新型和傳統聚合物的成長，以及中國市場日益增長的成功，部分被計劃中的扭虧為盈所抵消，使 AEM 的調整後每股收益增長至約 0.50 美元至 0.60 美元。

Consumer Specialties should be relatively flat versus 2017, and our tow JV should be neutral to earnings upon close.

與 2017 年相比，消費特種產品的銷售額應相對持平，而我們的拖車合資企業在收盤時對收益應保持中性。

The recent Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will have a positive impact on our adjusted tax rate in 2018, lowering it by approximately 2% to 14%. The tax benefit should offset investments in resources required to support our accelerated growth, which we estimate at roughly $0.15 of earnings.

最近的減稅與就業法案將對我們2018年的調整稅率產生正面影響，使其降低約2%至14%。稅收優惠應能抵消支持我們加速成長所需的資源投資，我們估計這大約相當於 0.15 美元的收益。

All in, we are increasing earnings guidance per share in 2018 to 10% to 14%, with the first half roughly $0.25 to $0.35 higher than the second, and most of that difference occurring in the first quarter.

總體而言，我們將 2018 年每股收益預期上調至 10% 至 14%，上半年將比下半年高出約 0.25 美元至 0.35 美元，其中大部分差額發生在第一季。

Let me close by reminding you that our Investor Day is scheduled for May 1 of this year in New York, where we'll outline our Strategy 3.0 and highlight growth plans and structural opportunities before us through 2020. Hope you can join us.

最後，我要提醒大家，我們的投資者日定於今年 5 月 1 日在紐約舉行，屆時我們將概述我們的策略 3.0，並重點介紹 2020 年的成長計畫和結構性機會。希望您能加入我們。

With that, I will turn it over to Surabhi for your questions.

說完這些，我會把問題交給 Surabhi 來回答您的問題。

Thank you, Mark. (Operator Instructions) Austin, please open the lines for Q&A now.

謝謝你，馬克。（操作員指示）奧斯汀，請立即開通問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mike Sison with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Mike Sison。

Mark, in terms of AEM margins were squeezed a little bit. How do you think pricing is coming along to recoup some of that as you head into 2018?

馬克，就 AEM 而言，利潤率受到了一點擠壓。隨著 2018 年的到來，您認為價格將如何回升以彌補部分損失？

Yes, there has been a margin squeeze. As we talked about, every business that we're buying is at materially lower margin, and we've been pretty clear about the need to increase that. Specifically, in the fourth quarter, Mike, in addition to that squeeze from the dilutive aspects, we also got a little pinched on raws, and we were pinched a bit on unit operations. We had a number of unit operation issues throughout the quarter. So we expect to start recovering that as we enter the first quarter and from there. Scott, you want to add?

是的，利潤率確實受到擠壓。正如我們所說的，我們收購的每一家企業的利潤率都相當低，我們很清楚需要提高利潤率。具體來說，麥克，在第四季度，除了稀釋方面的擠壓之外，我們在原料方面也受到了一些壓力，在單位運作方面也受到了一些壓力。整個季度我們遇到了許多單位營運問題。因此，我們預計在進入第一季後，這一數字將會開始恢復。史考特，你想補充嗎？

Yes. And thanks, Mark. Yes, I mean, I would just add that Mike, even in the fourth quarter as well, we've done a lot of work in this business to dampen seasonality as well. Part of that dampening comes through selling more in Asia, so you see that impact also. The other thing, you might even see some of the press releases we've come out with pricing as well as we work to recover that moving into the first quarter because conditions are right to be able to do that.

是的。謝謝你，馬克。是的，我的意思是，我只想補充一點，麥克，即使在第四季度，我們也在這個業務上做了很多工作來抑制季節性。這種抑制的部分原因是由於在亞洲的銷售增加，因此你也會看到這種影響。另一件事，您甚至可能會看到我們發布的一些有關定價的新聞稿，而且我們正在努力在第一季恢復這一價格，因為條件已經適合這樣做。

Great. And then as a follow-up for AEM, I mean, volume growth has been really on a roll. Your new product generation programs have been great. What do you see as the opportunities for growth in 2018 for AEM? And maybe nylon sounds exciting, but are there any other areas or markets that you see opportunities for growth?

偉大的。然後作為 AEM 的後續發展，我的意思是，銷售成長確實一直在穩步推進。你們的新產品產生計畫非常棒。您認為 AEM 在 2018 年有哪些成長機會？尼龍聽起來可能很令人興奮，但您是否看到了其他領域或市場的成長機會？

Yes. Well, this is Scott again. I mean, look, I would say every market that we operate in, in AEM, we're able to grow volume. I mean, we even grew volume in auto very nicely in the fourth quarter of 2017. Because it is all about that model, we're a bit market-agnostic. So I mean, we're predicting that we'll be able to close 3,000 projects when you think about project-by-project growth, but we also still have a nice M&A pipeline that's at work for bolt-ons.

是的。嗯，我又是史考特。我的意思是，我想說，在 AEM 中，我們經營的每個市場，我們的銷售都能夠成長。我的意思是，我們在 2017 年第四季的汽車銷售甚至實現了非常好的成長。因為一切都與該模型有關，所以我們對市場有點不確定。所以我的意思是，我們預測，如果考慮到逐個項目的成長，我們將能夠完成 3,000 個項目，但我們仍然擁有良好的併購管道，可用於附加功能。

Our next question is from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, in AI in the quarter, very strong results. How much do you think was influenced by the Eastman outage?

馬克，本季在人工智慧領域取得了非常強勁的成績。您認為伊士曼停電事件的影響有多大？

Well, we don't have a real number on that. I mean, I think Eastman contributed a little bit to the momentum. But clearly, this -- if you go back a bit, David, we actually, at the first year, we expected the market to tighten, especially in Asia, and we expected that shift to occur in methanol. And that had actually started before any of these outages you talked about. Actually, it started at the end of the third quarter there. So not -- it was part of it but not a huge part.

嗯，我們對此沒有確切的數字。我的意思是，我認為伊士曼對這一勢頭做出了一點貢獻。但顯然，如果你回顧一下，大衛，實際上，在第一年，我們預計市場會收緊，特別是在亞洲，我們預計這種轉變將發生在甲醇領域。事實上，這在您談到的任何停電事件之前就已經開始了。實際上，它是在第三季末開始的。所以不是——它是其中的一部分，但不是很大的一部分。

Got it. And long term, you discussed maybe doing a JV with this business or, I guess, a tow-like transaction to take out some capital. Is that still an option or a possibility in the near to medium term?

知道了。從長遠來看，您討論過可能與這家企業建立合資企業，或者，我猜，進行類似拖車的交易以獲取一些資本。從近期到中期來看，這仍然是一種選擇或可能性嗎？

Yes. Well, absolutely. I think what we're really saying is that it's our expectation that the value equation received by our shareholders continues to go up. We think our company is woefully undervalued, and we have every intention to pushing it in a reasonable period of time to a $20 billion company. And so we are entertaining all options relative to doing that. So our belief system, though, is that the way to do that is to create stronger and stronger value equations. And if you've done that, then I think you can maybe do something separate with the business. So first, I would like to build it a bit more, to be honest, and have it be recognized for the real value it's contributing. And then, take another step and do something with it like the tow JV.

是的。嗯，絕對是如此。我認為我們真正想說的是，我們期望股東獲得的價值方程式會繼續上升。我們認為我們的公司被嚴重低估了，我們打算在合理的時間內將其推向價值 200 億美元的公司。因此，我們正在考慮與此相關的所有選擇。因此，我們的信念體係是，實現這一目標的方法是創造越來越強大的價值方程式。如果你已經這樣做了，那麼我認為你也許可以針對業務做一些獨立的事情。因此，首先，說實話，我想進一步完善它，並讓它因其貢獻的真正價值而得到認可。然後，採取進一步措施，採取類似拖車合資企業等措施。

Our next question is from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

Mark, I think you guys have some pretty interesting windows into what's going on in China given your presence there. I know in your prepared remarks, you talked about the likely sustainability of some of these environmental efforts. I guess, I'm curious on a couple of points there. One, have you suffered at all from any of your downstream customers that have maybe been subject to some of these curtailments? And then secondly, can you give us any window on the volatility you might expect going forward from the MTO market and what influence that would have on your operations or profitability?

馬克，鑑於你們在中國的存在，我認為你們對中國正在發生的事情有一些非常有趣的了解。我知道您在準備好的演講中談到了其中一些環保努力的可持續性。我想，我對那裡的幾個點感到好奇。第一，您的下游客戶是否曾遭受這些減產措施的影響？其次，您能否向我們介紹未來 MTO 市場可能出現的波動，以及這會對您的營運或獲利能力產生什麼影響？

Yes. So what's interesting in China today, Bob, is none of these policies or practices are new, the government has been promoting for a period of time. But there is now a connectivity between the municipalities and provinces to really make these things happen. So it's reached a level of maturity in principle to drive real change. So that's the sort of the fundamental shift that we're now seeing in the region. So assets are being shut down and are, if they're continuing to operate at reinvestments, they have to then justify a stronger economic -- a strong economic case for that. And they're struggling to do that. Unless they want to have scope or too, they really have the ability to move their business to a higher place. So all those things are structurally and fundamentally good. We have not directly suffered. We did have one company I'm thinking about in particular that did some work for us in the polymer business was under shutdown orders, and we managed to work with them a bit and keep it operational until we could get our technology in place and our capability in place to replicate what they were doing. And now they're down, I believe. So I think there is some element of working with as this activity is occurring, at least in our case, it was. Yes, you're right on the MTO. One of the things we've seen, of course, the big MTO units are now up and running. And we're definitely at -- I'm not sure what today's price is -- at $1,400 a ton. There is margin even at $400 a ton methanol for these guys to do well. I do believe, though, this industry is one of -- it's built in a way that can be turned on or off to match the -- to deal with that arbitrage that exists between C1 and C2 chemistry. So we expect some volatility in the second half for this year, but it won't be sustained. So we do expect that. That's one of the reasons we've been a little bit cautious about forecasting continued driving growth fully completely through the year on that chain. We'll know more as we -- I think as we end the first quarter and get to the second. But I do expect volatility, but I think fundamentally, that's changed, Bob, so it's not going to go back like it did.

是的。鮑勃，今天在中國有趣的是，這些政策或做法都不是新的，而是政府已經推行了一段時間了。但現在各市和各省之間已經建立了聯繫，可以真正實現這些目標。因此，從原則上來說，它已經達到了推動真正改變的成熟程度。這就是我們現在在該地區看到的根本轉變。因此，資產正在關閉，如果它們繼續進行再投資，那麼它們必須證明更強勁的經濟——一個強有力的經濟案例。他們正在努力做到這一點。除非他們想要有範圍，否則他們真的有能力將他們的業務推向更高的水平。所以從結構和根本上來說，所有這些事情都是好的。我們並沒有直接遭受損失。我特別想到的確實有一家公司，他們在聚合物業務方面為我們做了一些工作，當時該公司正處於停工令之下，我們設法與他們進行了一些合作，並使其保持運營，直到我們能夠獲得技術和能力來複製他們正在做的事情。我相信，現在他們已經倒下了。因此我認為，隨著這項活動的發生，存在一些合作的因素，至少在我們的情況下是這樣的。是的，您對 MTO 的看法是正確的。當然，我們看到的一件事是，大型 MTO 裝置現在已啟動並運行。而且我們確實處於——我不確定今天的價格是多少——每噸 1,400 美元。即使甲醇價格為每噸 400 美元，這些公司仍有利潤空間可以獲利。但我確實相信，這個行業是——它的建立方式是可以開啟或關閉以匹配——處理 C1 和 C2 化學之間存在的套利。因此，我們預計今年下半年會出現一些波動，但不會持續。所以我們確實期待這一點。這就是我們對預測該鏈條持續成長全年持謹慎態度的原因之一。我認為，隨著第一季結束並進入第二季度，我們會了解更多。但我確實預計會出現波動，但我認為從根本上來說，情況已經發生了變化，鮑勃，所以它不會像以前那樣回落。

And just a quick follow-up. Any inspiration to build that second methanol plant given where margins are?

這只是一次快速的跟進。考慮到利潤率，有什麼靈感可以啟發人們建造第二家甲醇工廠嗎？

We are very inspired.

我們深受啟發。

Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

You mentioned in your prepared remarks that post Omni, nylon is roughly 15% of the AEM segment. Of the incremental project growth that you're seeing in AEM, can you just give us a sense as to how fast nylon has grown versus your other molecular platforms?

您在準備好的發言中提到，Omni 之後，尼龍約佔 AEM 部分的 15%。就您在 AEM 中看到的增量專案成長而言，您能否向我們介紹尼龍相對於其他分子平台的成長速度有多快？

Yes, and thanks. I mean, this is Scott. I mean, it's not growing any faster. The whole product solution platform is growing fast across all of AEM-wide. It's not disproportionate across the different polymers. Of course, our nylon business is growing just because of the acquisitions we've done, marrying up to some of the organic business that we had. But in general, the whole platform is growing quickly. Nothing is outpacing something else.

是的，謝謝。我的意思是，這是斯科特。我的意思是，它不再成長得更快了。整個產品解決方案平台在整個 AEM 範圍內快速發展。不同聚合物之間的比例並非不均衡。當然，我們的尼龍業務之所以能夠成長，正是因為我們進行了收購，並將其與我們原有的一些有機業務結合起來。但總體來說，整個平台正在快速成長。沒有什麼能超越其他事物。

Okay. And just my second question is on the tax rate and the 14% for 2018. Is that the right steady-state tax rate to think about for the company post the tax reform? Or is there anything discrete to the year that may not repeat going forward?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於稅率以及 2018 年的 14%。這是稅改後公司應該考慮的正確的穩定稅率嗎？或者今年是否存在一些未來可能不會重複發生的離散事件？

Yes. You're welcome. It's -- and Kevin may want to give more color on this. But as you look at the tax laws that are -- the clarifications being read out, we expect this to be a little bit lumpy in -- over the next several years as we settle in exactly what those rates are. We think 14% is sustainable, but it could be plus or minus a percent or so as we go through the next several years.

是的。不客氣。這是——凱文可能想對此進行更多的闡述。但是，當你查看正在宣讀的稅法時，我們預計在接下來的幾年裡，當我們確定這些稅率的具體金額時，稅率會有些不均勻。我們認為 14% 是可持續的，但在接下來的幾年裡，它可能會上下浮動一個百分點左右。

Yes. This is Kevin. I think it's a good response, Mark. We do think that rate is sustainable, but at the same time, yes, this is a significant change in tax law. You're going to continue to see IRS make some announcements and notifications, which they've done even this last week. So there could be some minor changes here or there, but we're not expecting a material impact.

是的。這是凱文。我認為這是一個很好的回應，馬克。我們確實認為這個稅率是可持續的，但同時，是的，這是稅法的重大變化。您將繼續看到美國國稅局發布一些公告和通知，他們甚至在上週就已經這樣做了。因此，這裡或那裡可能會有一些細微的變化，但我們預計不會產生實質的影響。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. So if we look at the new project growth rate over the last few years, it's been pretty high. I was just wondering if we're getting to a point now where it has to naturally just kind of cool off a bit as we head into 2018, 2019.

丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo) 代替勞倫斯。因此，如果我們看一下過去幾年的新專案成長率，就會發現它相當高。我只是想知道，隨著我們進入 2018 年、2019 年，我們是否已經到了一個階段，自然而然地會冷卻下來。

Yes. So this is Scott. I mean, no. I mean, the answer is no to that. I think we're going to project 3,000 closes here in 2018, and we'll lift that number again in 2019. I mean, we continue to refine the model to be able to handle more and more projects but also have a higher batting average at the same time. So I expect that number to keep climbing.

是的。這就是斯科特。我的意思是，不。我的意思是，答案是否定的。我認為我們預計 2018 年的成交量將達到 3,000 筆，2019 年這一數字將再次提高。我的意思是，我們不斷完善模型，以便能夠處理越來越多的項目，同時擁有更高的成功率。所以我預計這個數字將繼續攀升。

Okay. And then -- sorry? And then with your M&A, obviously, the focus is on AEM. But I was wondering if there are opportunities in other segments at all for -- I don't know, potential bolt-ons or larger acquisitions.

好的。然後——對不起？然後，對於您的併購，顯然重點是 AEM。但我想知道其他領域是否也存在機會——我不知道，潛在的附加收購或更大規模的收購。

Yes. No, we think in the Chain business, there are some great opportunities to bring additional molecules into that portfolio. And we've been very active in that regard. We just haven't been able to quite pull one off yet. But you shouldn't be surprised to see investments in both cores as we take and try to extend these business models further.

是的。不，我們認為在連鎖業務中，有一些很好的機會將更多的分子納入該投資組合。我們在這方面一直都非常活躍。我們只是還沒能完全實現這一點。但當我們採取並嘗試進一步擴展這些商業模式時，你不應該對對兩個核心的投資感到驚訝。

Are expectations too -- are expectations unrealistic in that area?

期望也是如此——該領域的期望是否不切實際？

Say that again, Dan. I'm sorry.

再說一遍，丹。對不起。

In the Acetyl Chain, are expectations in M&A too high or too -- I mean, are people expecting too much in terms of price?

在乙醯基鏈中，對併購的期望是否太高或太高——我的意思是，人們對價格的期望是否太高？

No, I don't think -- I think it's -- no, the way we do deals is we go out and knock on doors, and so you just get rejected a lot in that process. So we're not looking for properties that are auctioned. We're trying to create the opportunity. So no, it's not really been a question of price. It's more have been a question of fit and willingness on the part of the person that you're asking to sell their property.

不，我不這麼認為——我認為是——不，我們做交易的方式是出去敲門，所以在這個過程中你會經常被拒絕。所以我們不要找被拍賣的房產。我們正在努力創造機會。所以，這其實不是一個價格問題。這更多的是一個關於你要求出售其財產的人是否適合和是否願意出售的問題。

Our next question is from Frank Mitsch with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國證券公司的弗蘭克米奇 (Frank Mitsch)。

Just a clarification on your -- the tow approvals from China, Russia, Turkey and Mexico. Just to be clear, there is no remedies or contingencies there that are part of those approvals, are there?

只是想澄清一下——中國、俄羅斯、土耳其和墨西哥的拖車批准。需要明確的是，這些批准中沒有補救措施或應急措施，對嗎？

No, no, they're approved. So we're waiting in Korea and the European Commission. And really the focus is with the European Commission and going through that process. So yes.

不，不，他們被批准了。所以我們在韓國和歐盟委員會等待。真正的重點在於歐盟委員會及其進程。是的。

Yes, you outlined nicely Phase 2 there, and we'll see what happens there. But -- all right. Terrific. The guidance, obviously, roughly $0.40 improvement in '18 versus '17 on acetyls. You got about $0.20 upside relative to The Street in just Q4 alone. Could that be the area where if there -- where -- I don't want to use the term sandbagging or something like -- that you might feel little bit better being able to outperform in 2018 given where trends are and you guys are, et cetera?

是的，您很好地概述了第二階段，我們將看看那裡會發生什麼。但是——好吧。了不起。顯然，與 2017 年相比，2018 年乙醯基藥物的指導價格大約上漲了 0.40 美元。僅在第四季度，您就比華爾街上漲了約 0.20 美元。那會不會是這樣一個領域——如果存在——我不想使用「沙袋」或類似的東西——考慮到趨勢和你們的處境，你可能會感覺更好一些，能夠在 2018 年表現出色，等等？

I think so. If you put a straight edge on a trend line, you end up with a higher number. And all we're saying, though, is that there's been such a monumental change in China. You've got -- and you've got a lot of good things going your way. You've got a lot of methanol out of the market, about 6 million annual tons out in the last quarter. That comes back on as we get into the end of the first quarter, start of the second. There's a new plant starting up here in the U.S., 1.8 million-ton plant. And we're not sure exactly what ethanol play is going to be in, in China and how it's going to reflect back on MPO in methanol. I use methanol flow as indicator and it's not so much our indicator, but it does move that market up and down a bit. So I think that it will be wrong to discontinue that flow. But equally, I'm looking at Scott here. I think our feeling is that there's opportunity there, and we'll be able to communicate more about that after we get through the first quarter.

我認為是的。如果你把直邊放在趨勢線上，你最終會得到一個更高的數字。但我們想說的是，中國已經發生了巨大的變化。你已經——並且已經獲得了很多好事。市場上有大量甲醇流失，上個季度每年流失量約 600 萬噸。當我們進入第一季末和第二季初時，這種情況又再次出現。美國正在啟動一座新工廠，產能為 180 萬噸。我們不確定乙醇在中國的具體表現如何，以及它將如何影響甲醇中的 MPO。我使用甲醇流量作為指標，雖然它不是我們的指標，但它確實會使市場稍微上下波動。所以我認為停止這種流動是錯的。但同樣，我在這裡關注的是斯科特。我認為我們的感覺是那裡有機會，並且在第一季結束後我們將能夠就此進行更多溝通。

Yes. I mean, Mark -- I mean, I would just add that we continue to enhance our model, and you're seeing the benefits of that as we drive this outcome. But also, that model has the opportunity to flex up and down a little bit quarter-to-quarter, depending on what kind of dynamics are out there. And there can be some cracks in those dynamics later in the year. As a result, you get some of that quarter-to-quarter fluctuation. But every single year, that business will be growing profitably.

是的。我的意思是，馬克——我的意思是，我只想補充一點，我們將繼續增強我們的模型，而當我們推動這一結果時，你就會看到這樣做的好處。但同時，該模型也有機會在每個季度之間略有調整，這取決於外部的動態。今年晚些時候，這種動態可能會出現一些裂痕。因此，您會感受到季度間的波動。但每年，該業務的獲利都會成長。

Our next question is from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

On acetyls, you've done a great job of balancing the system to your advantage. Now what is the risk here? If China were to add more capacity in acetyls, will the landscape get disturbed? What risks are we talking about here with the system?

在乙醯基方面，您已經出色地平衡了系統，使其對您有利。那這裡的風險是什麼？如果中國增加乙醯基產能，市場格局會受到干擾嗎？我們在這裡討論的是該系統的哪些風險？

Well, I mean, there's always theoretical risk, P.J. But I think practically speaking, China is not very desirous of overinvesting in big chemistry these days, so you're not seeing a lot of that. I mean, you're seeing some technical investments, which what I'd call MTO, to bring on olefins capacity, blended olefins capacity. But to build more of these plants means you're building more coal gasification. It means you're adding cost in a system that, to be honest, is not global low cost. So they can't really export with the kind of fever that you like. So it's pretty hard for me to imagine that any bank is going to fund the kind of money it would take to really go and build a competitive business here. I don't see that at all. So I think the days of that for everybody, it's not just for Celanese this year, are kind of gone, and you're going to see what investments you see would be very responsible and very needed to fit local demand and/or unique chemistry that maybe can be exported. But I wouldn't think so, not in our Chain business. Scott?

嗯，我的意思是，理論上總是存在風險，P.J. 但我認為實際上，中國現在不太願意在大型化學領域過度投資，所以你不會看到太多這樣的情況。我的意思是，你看到一些技術投資，我稱之為 MTO，以提高烯烴產能和混合烯烴產能。但建造更多這樣的工廠意味著要建造更多的煤氣化工廠。這意味著你在一個系統中增加了成本，老實說，這不是全球低成本的。因此他們無法真正以你喜歡的那種熱情輸出。因此，我很難想像任何銀行會提供足夠的資金來在這裡建立具有競爭力的業務。我根本沒看到這一點。因此，我認為對於所有人而言，這種日子已經一去不復返了，這不僅僅適用於塞拉尼斯，今年你會看到，你看到的投資將是非常負責任的，並且非常有必要，以滿足當地需求和/或可能可以出口的獨特化學品。但我認為我們不會這麼認為，在我們的連鎖業務中不會。史考特？

Yes. I agree. Look, I mean, fundamental dynamics, fundamental conditions in China are much better. I mean, think about it, markets have continued to grow, there hasn't been a lot of acetyl capacity addition on top of that. The competitors that are there are having to run in more of a structured format in terms of environmental and economics as well. All those things come together, and all that old discussion around nameplate capacity and utilization doesn't apply anymore. I mean, this industry is operated at a much better utilization rate now. And that's likely to be the case for many -- a number of years going forward.

是的。我同意。我的意思是，中國的基​​本動力、基本條件要好得多。我的意思是，想想看，市場一直在持續成長，但乙醯基產能卻沒有增加很多。那裡的競爭對手也必須在環境和經濟方面以更結構化的形式運作。所有這些因素綜合在一起，有關額定容量和利用率的所有舊討論都不再適用。我的意思是，這個行業現在的利用率要好得多。未來許多年裡，這種情況可能會持續下去。

Okay. So net-net you don't expect a whole lot of new acetyls capacity? Is that fair?

好的。那麼，您預計不會有大量新的乙醯產能嗎？這樣公平嗎？

Yes. I think that's fair. Yes, there will some selective ones, right? But there is growth in that marketplace.

是的。我認為這是公平的。是的，會有一些選擇性的，對嗎？但該市場正在成長。

Okay. And just quickly, my second question on your tax rate. It's gone from 21% in 2014 to 16%. And now with the new tax law, it goes down to 14%. Can you talk about the progression of your tax rate since 2014 and sort of what factors drove that?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於您的稅率。從 2014 年的 21% 上升至 16%。現在，根據新稅法，稅率降至14%。您能談談自 2014 年以來稅率的變化情況以及推動這項變化的因素嗎？

Kevin, do you want to give that a shot?

凱文，你想嘗試嗎？

Yes. So this is Kevin. I think you see a lot of the growth we've had, has been foreign growth. You've seen changes in tax rates across the globe now nearing what you see in the U.S. with increasing rates. So I think that has been a trend that with the profile and the growth of our business and where that's happened, that's been favorable to us. In the U.S., you saw a nice reduction in rate, 14% reduction in rate. We lost some deductions here in the U.S. as kind of a giveback, but it did have a nice net 2% benefit will be for 2018.

是的。這就是凱文。我想，我們所取得的成長很大一部分來自於海外成長。您已經看到全球各地稅率的變化，現在已接近美國的稅率，稅率仍在增加。因此，我認為這是一種趨勢，隨著我們業務的形象和成長以及這種情況的發生，這對我們來說是有利的。在美國，利率大幅下降，下降了 14%。作為一種補償，我們在美國損失了一些稅收抵扣，但 2018 年確實有 2% 的淨收益。

Yes. So as we moved, P.J., to a European structure, we were, in many ways, a little bit ahead of this, I would say. And so the rate you saw, it's sort of looking -- has been now continued with the lowering of the rate in the U.S. structure. So you're moving more towards a European system than a historical U.S. system, and our trend line just follows that.

是的。因此，P.J.，當我們轉向歐洲結構時，我想說，我們在很多方面都領先了一點。因此，您所看到的利率看起來已經隨著美國結構利率的降低而持續下降。因此，你們正更接近歐洲體系，而不是歷史上的美國體系，而我們的趨勢線正是遵循這一點。

Our next question is from John Roberts with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

In acetyls, you mentioned that you sourced the equivalent of a full plant for early in the year. Is that basically the market was a little loose early in the year and again you took that volume -- excess volume off the market to help tighten things and then just resold it at a profit later in the year?

在乙醯基方面，您提到您在年初購買了相當於一株完整植物的乙醯基。是因為年初市場略顯寬鬆，而你們又把多餘的交易量從市場上撤出，以幫助收緊市場，然後在年底再轉售以獲取利潤？

Okay. This is Scott. Yes, thanks for the question. I mean, we did source quite a lot, but there's really a number of reasons that, that goes on. One, of course, we had a large turnaround earlier in the year; two, Hurricane Harvey impacted us in the Gulf Coast; but three, and the largest reason is that trading is part of our daily model. So we traded a couple hundred thousand tons last year, and we traded with more than 20 partners. And I would expect that to be a feature of our model going forward. It's not near as big as our self-production, but it is part of the model.

好的。這是斯科特。是的，謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，我們確實找到了很多資源，但實際上有很多原因。第一，當然，我們在今年早些時候出現了巨大的轉變；第二，颶風哈維對我們墨西哥灣沿岸地區造成了影響；第三，也是最大的原因是交易是我們日常模式的一部分。因此，我們去年交易了幾十萬噸，並與 20 多個合作夥伴進行了交易。我希望這將成為我們未來模式的一個特徵。它不如我們自己生產的那麼大，但它是模型的一部分。

And then back to the question on the antitrust review on cig tow. In Europe, are there any remedies in discussion yet? Or you're still expecting that you'll get approval in Europe without any remedies?

然後回到關於香菸拖網反壟斷審查的問題。歐洲是否已在討論任何補救措施？或者您仍然期望無需採取任何補救措施即可獲得歐洲批准？

No, we're going through a process of working with the objections in there, and we're not opposed to a remedy if it will be needed. I felt it was needed by the commission, but we haven't got to that point in the process. We think that stands on its own, and we're arguing that with the commission. But if we need a remedy, we think there is perhaps some options there.

不，我們正在處理其中的反對意見，如果需要的話，我們並不反對採取補救措施。我覺得委員會需要這麼做，但我們的進程還沒有到達那個階段。我們認為這是獨立的，我們正在與委員會爭論這一點。但如果我們需要補救措施，我們認為也許有一些選擇。

Our next question is from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Question with the new plant and the changes at Ibn Sina, of the growth this year kind of in your guidance, what percent is that?

問題是，隨著新工廠和伊本西納的變化，今年的成長在您的預期中是多少百分比？

It's pretty modest for us. We are getting 1% step-up in Ibn Sina, which is in itself pretty handsome. If I just draw a big circle around Ibn Sina, they have a couple of big site outages there that they're doing this year, which is a pretty negative impact. And so there's going to be a modest step-up there, I think, we tagged at another $10 million, which is less than half of the total step-up. Be mindful as well that when we have a new plant up and running, we're also bringing a lot of POM in the market, and there will be some ripple effect of that, that we've got to deal with. But you'll see it, but you won't see quite as much, Duffy, as the math would tell you, you would see.

對我們來說這相當適中。我們在伊本西納獲得了 1% 的增幅，這本身就相當可觀。如果我圍繞著伊本西納畫一個大圓圈，他們今年在那裡發生了幾次大型站點中斷，這造成了相當負面的影響。因此我認為那裡會有一個適度的提升，我們標記了另外 1000 萬美元，這還不到總提升金額的一半。還要注意的是，當我們建立並運作一個新工廠時，我們也會向市場推出大量的 POM，這會產生一些連鎖反應，我們必須加以處理。但你會看到它，但你看到的不會那麼多，達菲，正如數學告訴你的那樣，你會看到。

Okay. You mentioned the new plant coming up in the U.S. with methanol. What's your view of the uranium plants that are due to come online this year? Chance? No chance? How would you kind of plug those into a supply-demand model over the next...

好的。您提到了美國即將建成的甲醇新廠。您對今年即將投入營運的鈾工廠有何看法？機會？沒有機會？接下來您將如何將它們納入供需模型？

We think they'll come back.

我們認為他們會回來。

Our next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. I apologize about that. There seems to be a good bit of distortion on Mr. Zekauskas' line. I'll see if I can get somebody to sort that out with him. We'll move on to the next for now.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。我對此表示歉意。澤考斯卡斯先生的話似乎存在很大扭曲。我會看看能否找人幫他解決這個問題。現在我們繼續下一步。

Our next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

First, a follow-up on the AI, sort of the trading component of it. Can you just help us understand what type of risk is involved in that type of activity? Are you able to hedge? Or are you just only taking on this sort of third-party volume when you -- use sort of more of an agency model where you already know sort of the other end of the side of the trade?

首先，對人工智慧進行跟進，包括它的交易部分。您能否幫助我們了解此類活動涉及哪些類型的風險？你能對沖嗎？或者，當您使用一種代理模式時，您只是承擔這種第三方交易量，而您已經了解交易的另一端？

No. I think what we're doing, and as Scott said, it's a small portion of our total, is we have the ability to produce with any feedstock known to man in any location that's inhabited. And so when you look at that equation, that also means we can make decisions every day about buying and selling. And we can buy what we net go up in volume, we can actually lower our own production rate and have something to fill it. So we participate in the market as a full player. So I think that -- I mean, there's no more risk in that than the ongoing risk every day we have moving, producing and selling the millions of tons that we do.

不。我認為我們正在做的事情，正如斯科特所說，只是我們總量的一小部分，我們有能力在任何有人居住的地方利用人類已知的任何原料進行生產。因此，當你看這個等式時，這也意味著我們可以每天做出有關買賣的決定。而且，我們可以購買淨產量增加的產品，我們實際上可以降低自己的生產力，並有產品來填補空缺。因此，我們以全面參與者的身分參與市場。所以我認為——我的意思是，這其中的風險並不比我們每天運輸、生產和銷售數百萬噸貨物所面臨的持續風險更大。

Okay. Good enough. And just a question on the Omni acquisition. Your prepared remarks mentioned they have some type of IP around working with recycled content, which is becoming a bigger issue, particularly in the EU. Can you give us a better sense of what it is that they have and how you can expand it? And do you need to invest in it? And how large do you think that opportunity is?

好的。夠好了。我只是想問一下關於 Omni 收購的問題。您準備好的評論中提到，他們在處理回收材料方面擁有某種智慧財產權，這正成為一個更大的問題，尤其是在歐盟。您能否讓我們更了解他們擁有什麼以及如何擴展它？你需要投資它嗎？您認為這個機會有多大？

Yes. I mean -- this is Scott. I mean, Omni just has a nice part of their business whereby they start with, call it, post-consumer resin, and it's particularly nylon and polypropylene. And that's a part of the business that Celanese hasn't participated in historically in a very big way. So this is another new growth opportunity as we add it to our solutions portfolio. And they have some know-how and IP around that as well that we'll expand outside of just the U.S.

是的。我的意思是——這是斯科特。我的意思是，Omni 的業務中有一個不錯的部分，他們從所謂的消費後樹脂開始，特別是尼龍和聚丙烯。這是塞拉尼斯歷史上尚未大規模參與的業務領域。因此，當我們將其添加到我們的解決方案組合中時，這又是一個新的成長機會。他們也擁有一些相關技術和智慧財產權，我們將把這些技術和產品拓展到美國以外的地區。

Our next question is from Dan DiCicco with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Dan DiCicco。

Just another one on acetyls. Given the recent strength, is it fair to assume a decent amount of input cost pressure could be coming in Q1 with the raws moving up? And then what kind of offsets here as the guidance you guys gave implies Q1 could be one of the stronger quarters this year?

這只是關於乙醯基的另一個。鑑於近期的強勁勢頭，是否可以合理地假設，隨著原物料價格上漲，第一季可能會出現相當大的投入成本壓力？那麼，你們給出的指導暗示第一季可能是今年表現更強勁的季度之一，那麼這裡有什麼樣的抵銷作用呢？

Well, I mean, there's always raw material volatility in that Chain business, but I don't think -- I'm looking at Scott, I don't think we see that as particularly onerous in the first quarter any more than in any other quarter that's out there. So that's not really the issue. I think we feel pretty good about the first quarter. The question really is, will that floor stay quite as high or does it pull back a little bit as we get later in the year for those reasons I mentioned earlier.

嗯，我的意思是，連鎖業務中總是存在原材料波動，但我不認為——我正在看斯科特，我認為我們認為第一季的原材料波動不會比其他季度更加繁重。所以這並不是真正的問題。我認為我們對第一季的表現非常滿意。真正的問題是，由於我之前提到的原因，這一下限是否會保持如此之高，還是會在今年稍後略有回落。

Got it. Yes. And just as a follow-up, still on the raws. If you guys are still expecting methanol prices to stay above 400 this year, or at least average 400, is it fair to say that you guys have factored in that new capacity from Iran? And then have you thought about potential ethylene price erosion and what that does to MTO for some of the new U.S. crackers in the Gulf Coast?

知道了。是的。作為後續，我們仍在討論原始問題。如果你們仍然預計今年甲醇價格將保持在 400 以上，或至少平均為 400，那麼是否可以說你們已經將伊朗的新產能考慮在內了？那麼，您是否考慮過潛在的乙烯價格下跌以及這對美國墨西哥灣沿岸一些新裂解裝置的 MTO 會產生什麼影響？

Yes. I think I was probably a bit too -- I probably pushed out a bit further my comments than I really wanted to. I mean, we expect methanol prices to be up year-over-year, and they're up quite handsomely today. But we do expect more pressure in the back half of the year as these new volumes come on. And we're expecting as part of that, the MTO plants to run flat out like they are now. So my kind of gut is, is that you're going to see some reduction in that methanol value as you get on through the year. And for that reason, around your first comment, we expect the first half of the year to be stronger than the second half numbers that (inaudible) you could see quarter-to-quarter volatility that could even be inconsistent with that, if I can say that. So yes, we're off to a good start for the year. We should have a pretty okay first quarter in that process. We think the first half will be stronger than the second half for these reasons -- these structural reasons that I mentioned.

是的。我想我可能有點太過分了——我可能把我的評論推得比我真正想要的更遠。我的意思是，我們預計甲醇價格將同比上漲，而今天甲醇價格已經上漲得相當可觀。但我們預計，隨著這些新產量的增加，下半年的壓力將會更大。我們預計 MTO 工廠將像現在一樣全力運作。所以我的直覺是，隨著時間的推移，你會看到甲醇值下降。因此，圍繞著您的第一個評論，我們預計今年上半年的數據將強於下半年的數據，（聽不清楚）您可能會看到季度間的波動，甚至可能與此不一致，如果我可以這麼說的話。是的，我們今年有一個好的開始。透過這個過程，我們應該可以取得相當不錯的第一季成績。我們認為，由於這些原因——我提到的這些結構性原因——上半年將比下半年表現更強勁。

Our next question is from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Mark, with regard to the cigarette filter tow market, can you elaborate on your expectations for 2018 and perhaps touch upon things like inventory levels, input cost expectations and selling price trajectory for that business?

馬克，關於香菸過濾嘴拖曳市場，您能否詳細說明一下對 2018 年的預期，並談談該業務的庫存水平、投入成本預期和銷售價格走勢等問題？

Well, I'll make a few comments, and then ask Scott to comment here. That business, we've said that we anticipate keeping the earnings relatively flat, and we do, and we're doing that through productivity, though. That business is still stressed, and we expect it to continue to be stressed as cigarette demand around the world continues to fall. So we don't -- compared to input prices of those things, that really doesn't -- none of those things matter as much as the hard reality that the market continues to collapse. And we're just managing that process in a pretty effective way through productivity. Scott, want to fill in anything?

好吧，我會發表一些評論，然後請斯科特在這裡發表評論。我們說過，我們預計該業務的收益將保持相對平穩，我們也確實這樣做了，而且我們正在透過提高生產力來實現這一點。該業務仍然面臨壓力，我們預計，隨著全球香菸需求持續下降，該業務將繼續面臨壓力。因此，與這些東西的投入價格相比，我們並不認為這些真的不重要，重要的是市場持續崩盤的現實。我們只是透過提高生產力以相當有效的方式管理這個過程。史考特，還有什麼要填寫的嗎？

No, I would echo exactly the same thing. I mean, look, the demand continues to fall somewhat. There's certainly price pressure in the industry. It's competitive. But we offset that with productivity around taking out costs. And you'll see us do that in 2018, and 2018 will be pretty similar to 2017 in terms of earnings.

不，我會重複同樣的事情。我的意思是，看，需求持續下降。該行業確實存在價格壓力。競爭非常激烈。但我們透過提高生產效率來降低成本，從而抵消了這一影響。您會看到我們在 2018 年做到這一點，而且 2018 年的收益將與 2017 年非常相似。

Okay. The second, if I may. What was your volume growth in Advanced Engineered Materials exclusive of acquisition activity?

好的。如果可以的話，第二個。除收購活動外，先進工程材料的銷售成長為何？

Yes. So this is Scott. I mean, exclusive of acquisitions for the full year, we grew volume about 13%. For the fourth quarter, it was similar to that, about 13% as well.

是的。這就是斯科特。我的意思是，不包括全年的收購，我們的銷量成長了約 13%。第四季的情況也類似，約為13%。

Okay. And then one last one, if I may. Can you talk about the pension injection of $316 million? Was that done for tax reasons or reasons of strategic flexibility?

好的。如果可以的話，我還有最後一個問題。您能談談 3.16 億美元的退休金注入事宜嗎？這樣做是出於稅收原因還是戰略彈性的原因？

Well, I think both. I mean, it was a -- we had been -- and Kevin you know this, we had -- a few years ago, we had a pretty sizable pension liability, and we've systematically worked it down. We think at the highest level principally, that's the right thing to do. We have something like 25,000 retirees -- legacy retirees at Celanese, and it means a lot to us to make sure those men and women were all taken care of forever. We were advantaged to do it in the fourth quarter given the interest rates and given the change in the tax law. And that comes through as a benefit to us from a cash flow point of view this year. So we feel pretty good about that move. Now we're able to balance it pretty well, and we think that we haven't completely divorced ourselves from worrying about pensions. But we certainly will be able to balance it, protect it more, and I hope at some point in the future be able to annuitize it and kind of take the pension accounting a little bit off the table.

嗯，我認為兩者都有。我的意思是，這是一個——我們曾經——凱文，你知道，我們——幾年前，我們有一筆相當大的退休金負債，我們已經系統地將其減少了。我們原則上認為，從最高層次來說，這是正確的做法。塞拉尼斯有大約 25,000 名退休人員——遺留退休人員，確保這些員工永遠得到照顧對我們來說意義重大。考慮到利率和稅法的變化，我們在第四季度這樣做是有優勢的。從今年的現金流角度來看，這對我們有利。因此我們對此舉感到非常滿意。現在我們能夠很好地平衡這些，而且我們認為我們還沒有完全擺脫對退休金的擔憂。但我們肯定能夠平衡它，更好地保護它，我希望在未來的某個時候能夠將其年金化，並在某種程度上將退休金會計從考慮範圍中剔除。

The next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

When do you expect the Blackstone transaction to close? Or are the probabilities too uncertain to really forecast the date?

您預計黑石交易何時完成？還是機率太不確定，無法真正預測日期？

Well, we said last year when we visited in June or whenever that was, we expected it midyear, and I think that's still kind of the view that we have. That can move around a little bit, depending on the heat of the day. But that seems to be when we look at the timeline and the pace of things, we think that's what we'll see.

嗯，我們去年 6 月或任何時候訪問時就說過，我們預計它會在年中發生，我認為這仍然是我們的看法。根據當天的溫度，該溫度可能會有稍微的變化。但當我們看一下時間表和事情的進展速度時，我們認為這就是我們將要看到的。

And for my follow-up, in Acetyl Intermediates, your EBITDA went up about $30 million sequentially. Is that mostly from China, in Europe? Or if you had to divide it across your geographies, where were the larger sequential EBITDA benefits? Where were the smaller ones?

接下來我想問的是，乙醯中間體業務的 EBITDA 環比成長了約 3,000 萬美元。這些主要來自中國，在歐洲嗎？或者，如果您必須將其劃分到各個地區，那麼較大的連續 EBITDA 收益在哪裡？較小的在哪裡？

Yes. And so Jeff, this is Scott. I mean, the best performance improvement came in Asia, particularly China. However, that has repercussions on the rest of the globe as well. So we got some margin expansion outside of China.

是的。傑夫，這是斯科特。我的意思是，績效改善最好的是亞洲，特別是中國。然而，這也對世界其他地區產生了影響。因此，我們在中國以外的地區實現了一定的利潤成長。

Okay. Did your U.S. business grow sequentially or because of outages, no?

好的。你們在美國的業務是連續成長的還是因為停電而成長的？

Yes. No, I mean, all of it grew in terms of absolute margin expansion.

是的。不，我的意思是，從絕對利潤率擴張來看，所有這些都是成長的。

I mean, in terms of EBITDA dollars?

我的意思是，就 EBITDA 美元而言？

Yes. In terms of EBIT or EBITDA, yes.

是的。就 EBIT 或 EBITDA 而言，是的。

Our next question is from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Mark, it's a 2-part question on, obviously, in your prepared remarks, you talked about the sort of China pollution curbside of things. So 2 questions about that. One on the acetic side of things. So within acetic, how much of a bump-up should we expect to see, let's say, in terms of global utilization rates from some of these curbs that have been talked about pollution-related in China? So that's one side of it. The other one is acetic raws. So obviously methanol, a large part of, obviously, the methanol growth story is predicated on MTO. So should we expect to see any curbs on the sort of influx of new methanol capacity via the sort of coal to methanol side of things and, thereafter, MTO side of things as a result of this as well?

馬克，這是一個由兩部分組成的問題，顯然，在您準備好的演講中，您談到了中國污染問題。關於這一點，我有兩個問題。一種是醋酸類物質。那麼，就醋酸而言，我們預期全球利用率會因中國一些與污染相關的限制措施而出現多大的成長？這就是事情的一個面向。另一種是醋酸原料。因此顯然甲醇，很大一部分，顯然甲醇的成長故事是基於 MTO 的。那麼，我們是否應該預期會看到，透過煤製甲醇以及隨後的 MTO 方式，新甲醇產能的湧入會受到任何限制？

Well -- and Scott, hop in, in any of these. We use the term now that's really instantaneous capacity, which is a view of kind of the operating environment of the day. And in that instantaneous capacity, it's quite often different than shell capacity that's out there. And we have seen, as we went through the last year or so, we have seen instantaneous capacity rates continue to rise within China. And I'm looking at Scott here. I don't think we really see that changing or feel like that's going to change. So whether that's 10 basis points or 12 basis points or something like that, but -- so we're up in the 80s now, probably on the instantaneous today kind of rate. We don't -- equally, we don't see that the supply-demand is such that, that's going to move around necessarily a whole a lot. We're not anticipating a bunch of new plants to be built for the reasons I mentioned earlier nor do we think it will go back to some lower level in the future. When you look at methanol, the methanol-MTO link is the most important equation because when you're looking at anything you're talking about incremental methanol value in China, sets that floor, which has a big ripple effect around the world for the chain business that's out there. And if you believe that nat gas stays low in the U.S., which I think most of us believe, then it says that methanol globally is going to stay competitive relative to the average ethylene price in China. So methanol to MTO to ethylene, you should have a good window of arbitrage there available to those builders. So we think MTO is going to stay strong in China and may even have more capacity added. But certainly, we think it's going to stay strong. So we think those things naturally buffer themselves. Now if you get 1, 2, 3, or 4 new methanol plants coming on the next 4 or 5 years, I mean, that may change a little bit. But we kind of think that methanol is not going to stay in the low 200s like it had been. And where it may go back here from time to time, we think it's shifted up and it'll be in the 300s, in the mid-300s, and that's a good place for us from an acetic acid point of view and net chain point of view. Scott, you want to...

好吧——史考特，跳進來，坐上其中任何一個。我們現在使用的術語實際上是瞬時容量，這是對當今操作環境的一種看法。並且，瞬時容量通常與現有的殼體容量不同。我們看到，在過去一年左右的時間裡，中國的瞬時容量率持續上升。我正在看著史考特。我認為我們並沒有真正看到這種變化，或者感覺這種變化將會改變。因此，無論是 10 個基點還是 12 個基點或類似的數字，但是 - 所以我們現在已經上升到了 80 多美元，可能是今天的瞬時利率。我們同樣不認為供需會出現如此大的波動。由於我之前提到的原因，我們並不期望建造大量新工廠，我們也不認為未來產量會回到較低水準。當你研究甲醇時，甲醇-MTO 連結是最重要的等式，因為當你研究任何東西時，你都在談論中國的甲醇增量價值，它設定了底線，這對世界各地的連鎖業務產生了巨大的連鎖反應。如果你相信美國的天然氣價格將保持在低點（我想我們大多數人都這麼認為），那麼這意味著全球甲醇相對於中國的平均乙烯價格將保持競爭力。因此，從甲醇到 MTO 到乙烯，對於這些建造者來說，應該有一個良好的套利窗口。因此我們認為MTO在中國將保持強勁，甚至可能增加更多產能。但我們肯定認為它會保持強勁。因此我們認為這些事情會自然地自我緩衝。現在，如果在未來 4 到 5 年內有 1、2、3 或 4 個新的甲醇工廠建成，情況可能會有所改變。但我們認為甲醇的價格不會像以前那樣保持在 200 左右的水平。有時它可能會回到這裡，我們認為它已經上移，將在 300 左右，在 300 左右，從乙酸的角度和淨鏈的角度來看，這對我們來說是一個好位置。史考特，你想…

Yes, Mark. I mean, I would just add, the impact on us with all these MTO dynamics, it really does interject a lot of volatility into the world and into our model. And we have the opportunity to capitalize on that volatility on the way up or on the way down. And you'll see ethylene move around. Hence, you'll see rates of MTO plants move around. You'll see methanol price move up and down because of that. It's unlikely to get stuck like it got stuck in 2016 at a very low point.

是的，馬克。我的意思是，我只想補充一點，所有這些 MTO 動態對我們的影響確實為世界和我們的模型帶來了很多波動。我們有機會利用這種波動性，無論是上漲還是下跌。你會看到乙烯四處移動。因此，您會看到 MTO 工廠的產能會發生變化。你會看到甲醇價格因此而上下波動。它不太可能像 2016 年那樣陷入低谷。

Yes. These plants are big, and they're complicated to run. And like we saw there early last year, when we had a major unit that had operational difficulties, they ended up swinging 250,000 tons, if I recall, -ish, 200,000 tons, -ish, of methanol in and out of the market. So those swings Scott is talking about. So fundamentally, it's been shifted up. You're going to have nonetheless more volatility because of that C1 to C2 connection going through these assets. At Celanese, we like high pricing and we like volatility, so it's good for us.

是的。這些工廠規模很大，而且運作起來很複雜。正如我們去年年初看到的那樣，當我們的一個主要單位出現營運困難時，他們最終將 25 萬噸（如果我沒記錯的話，大約 20 萬噸）甲醇進出市場。這就是史考特談論的那些波動。因此從根本上來說，它已經上升了。然而，由於這些資產之間存在 C1 到 C2 的連接，因此波動性仍然會更大。在塞拉尼斯，我們喜歡高定價，也喜歡波動性，所以這對我們有好處。

Got it. And really quickly if I could sort of a follow-up on the methanol side of things. I mean, certain people sort of talked to you guys about the influx of new capacity in Iran. But obviously, there's some charter that Iran may actually consider converting most of their methanol facilities into MTO facilities, which obviously could be hugely bullish for methanol demand going forward. How are you guys thinking about the Iranian sort of MTO conversion side of things?

知道了。我可以快速跟進一下甲醇方面的狀況嗎？我的意思是，有些人和你們談論過伊朗新產能的湧入。但顯然，有消息指出伊朗實際上可能考慮將其大部分甲醇設施轉變為 MTO 設施，這顯然對未來的甲醇需求非常有利。你們對於伊朗的 MTO 轉換方面有什麼看法？

Well, I don't -- I mean, I'm going back, I'm an old guy. So Iranians are very capable. They have great technical acumen and great engineers. I have no doubt they can run the hell out of anything they build. I think the more you invest in these businesses, though, the more technically complex they occur. And it's not for the faint of heart to get into that when you get in the C2 chemistry. So I guess, I'm a bit -- they may do it -- I think if they do it, they would do it in a modest fashion, just my gut, because the investments are still large, but who knows? If they put it in, they'll run it. And I think if they run it, they're going to consume more methanol. So it gets back to this methanol dynamic. It's good for us.

嗯，我不——我的意思是，我要回去，我是個老傢伙了。所以伊朗人非常有能力。他們擁有出色的技術敏銳度和優秀的工程師。我毫不懷疑他們能夠毀掉他們所建造的一切。我認為，對這些業務的投資越多，它們的技術就越複雜。當你進入 C2 化學領域時，膽小的人是無法接受這一點的。所以我想，我有點——他們可能會這樣做——我認為如果他們這樣做，他們會以一種適度的方式去做，只是我的直覺，因為投資仍然很大，但誰知道呢？如果他們把它放進去，他們就會運行它。我認為如果他們運行它，他們將消耗更多的甲醇。所以它又回到了甲醇動態。這對我們有好處。

The next question is from Aleksey Yefremov with Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題來自野村證券的阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫 (Aleksey Yefremov)。

Mark, you just mentioned that you're very excited about the potential to build a methanol plant in the U.S. How do you think about the sizing of this plant and the timing? Is the idea here to just fully integrate or maybe go along with methanol to some degree?

馬克，您剛才提到，您對在美國建造甲醇工廠的潛力感到非常興奮。您認為該工廠的規模和時間安排如何？這裡的想法是完全整合還是在某種程度上與甲醇結合？

Yes, Alex. What I said is that we're really enthusiastic about C1 chemistry chain. And we look at that methanol opportunity as an opportunity for C1 chemistry and especially in terms of how we think about working with other people to expand the molecules in our portfolio. So I wouldn't go quite so far as to say that I'm announcing the construction of a methanol plant today. But it is certainly on the table for us, and it has been on the table and it's certainly on the table today for us and especially on the table as we talk to others about the things we can do together relative to growing our business, the C1 chemistry business.

是的，亞歷克斯。我所說的是，我們對 C1 化學鏈非常熱衷。我們將甲醇機會視為 C1 化學的機會，特別是在我們如何考慮與其他人合作以擴大我們產品組合中的分子方面。因此，我不會說我今天宣佈要建造一座甲醇工廠。但這肯定是我們可以考慮的，而且一直在考慮，今天肯定也在考慮，特別是當我們與其他人討論我們可以一起做的事情以發展我們的業務，即 C1 化學業務時。

Got it. Staying with acetyls. How do you look at seasonality in China? To what degree the tightness that we see right now is due to the seasonal shutdowns, either on the coal side or maybe downstream in acetyls or in methanol? So do you think just that seasonal impact will be there going forward? Or it's not really about that?

知道了。繼續使用乙醯基。您如何看待中國的季節性？我們目前看到的緊張局面在多大程度上是由於季節性停產造成的，無論是煤炭方面，還是下游的乙醯基或甲醇方面？那麼，您認為未來僅僅會產生季節性影響嗎？或者其實不是那樣？

Well, it's there to some extent. I mean, you certainly have the winter season and the winter heating season, which means that nat gas comes out of the market and goes in all of those applications, and there is some nat gas derivative there. So the way we look at it -- the way I look at it -- Scott may do it differently, is it's almost like Chinese New Year. So you have before Chinese New Year kind of conduct and you have post conduct. So I think you'll see that seasonality like we have seen it, but it -- again, at this new stepped-up rate, it has less of an impact than it used to have before.

嗯，從某種程度上來說，它是存在的。我的意思是，肯定有冬季和冬季供暖季節，這意味著天然氣從市場上出來並進入所有這些應用，並且那裡有一些天然氣衍生物。所以，從我們的角度來看——從我的角度來看——斯科特可能會以不同的方式對待這件事，這幾乎就像中國的新年一樣。因此，你們有農曆新年前的行為，也有農曆新年後的行為。所以我認為你會看到像我們所看到的季節性，但是——再次強調，在這個新的加速下，它的影響比以前要小。

Yes, I agree. I mean, but I think, look, disruptions are going to be part of every calendar year going forward, right? And it just so happens that there's a few more certainly in Asia as you approach Chinese New Year. In fact, there's just as many turnarounds on the calendar going forward as there's been over the last 12 months as well. So I think we have a fairly consistent pattern.

是的，我同意。我的意思是，但我認為，看，中斷將成為未來每一年的一部分，對嗎？而且，隨著農曆新年的臨近，亞洲肯定會有更多的節慶。事實上，未來日曆上的轉捩點與過去 12 個月一樣多。所以我認為我們有一個相當一致的模式。

I guess, just to clarify my question, you don't think some of your competitors are down because they can't get all or MTO or methanol because of these seasonal shutdowns?

我想，只是為了澄清我的問題，您不認為您的一些競爭對手因為季節性停產而無法獲得全部 MTO 或甲醇而陷入困境嗎？

Well, definitely in China, there's been some, right? There's been some restriction on gas even transfer of where the coal origination is used as well. So you see those impacts. And yes, that's where see the most volatility today.

嗯，中國肯定有一些，對吧？天然氣甚至煤炭來源地的運輸也受到一些限制。所以你看到了這些影響。是的，這就是今天波動最大的地方。

And our last question will come from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 Matthew Blair。

Just touching on Omni. What kind of end markets are you most excited about here? And then also on the financial side, any more color on why this deal is EPS-neutral this year given that it would boost revenue by 2%. And I thought it offered EBIT margins around where like SO. F.TER. and Nilit were.

只是觸及 Omni。您對這裡的哪種終端市場最感興趣？然後從財務方面來看，鑑於這筆交易將使收入增加 2%，為什麼今年的每股盈餘不會受到影響？我認為它提供的息稅前利潤率大約在 SO 左右。F.TER。和 Nilit 是。

Yes. Sure, Matthew. Thanks for the question. I mean, the end markets, first of all, there's a few complementary markets to where we're already in. There's some auto. There's good electrical and electronics. But interestingly enough, it also provides us access to some markets that we don't participate in a big way today. Most namely, the higher-end furniture market is a big part of their business, so we're excited about that as we can move some of our solutions and existing products into that market. As far as it being accretive or not, I mean, there is a step-up in some first-year costs that we have that basically make it a 0 from an EPS standpoint. And then I think you had a third one, too, but can you repeat that, Matthew?

是的。當然，馬修。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，首先，終端市場有幾個與我們已經進入的市場互補的市場。有一些汽車。有良好的電氣和電子產品。但有趣的是，它也為我們進入一些我們目前尚未大規模參與的市場提供了機會。最重要的是，高端家具市場是他們業務的重要組成部分，因此我們對此感到興奮，因為我們可以將我們的一些解決方案和現有產品轉移到該市場。至於它是否具有增值性，我的意思是，我們第一年的一些成本有所增加，從 EPS 的角度來看，這基本上使其成為 0。然後我想你還有第三個，但你能重複一遍嗎，馬修？

No, you covered it. My follow-up, we've seen some reports of unplanned issues, mostly regarding feedstock supply problems affecting Nanjing, Jurong and then your Clear Lake methanol facility. Can you just provide any color here? What kind of financial impacts might this have? And how long do you expect these feedstock limitations to persist?

不，你掩蓋了它。我的後續行動是，我們看到了一些有關意外問題的報告，主要是影響南京、句容以及清湖甲醇工廠的原料供應問題。您能在這裡提供任何顏色嗎？這可能會產生什麼樣的財務影響？您預計這些原料限制將持續多久？

This is Scott again. I don't think we would talk about first quarter things that are going on. We have these impacts in the third quarter and, in particular, some in the fourth. And yes, we experienced issues with the cold now. We're not going to quantify those. They're not going to be gigantic but there is some small impacts.

我又是斯科特。我認為我們不會談論第一季正在發生的事情。我們在第三季感受到了這些影響，尤其是在第四季。是的，我們現在遇到了寒冷的問題。我們不會量化這些。這些影響不會非常巨大，但也會有一些小小的影響。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Surabhi Varshney for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Surabhi Varshney 並請他做最後發言。

Thank you, Austin. We will now conclude the call. Thank you for all your questions and for listening in this morning. We're available after the call to address any further questions you may have. Austin, please close the call now.

謝謝你，奧斯汀。我們現在結束通話。感謝大家今天早上提出的問題和聆聽。通話結束後，我們仍可解答您可能有的任何其他問題。奧斯汀，請現在結束通話。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。