塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Celanese Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2017 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Surabhi Varshney. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給 Surabhi Varshney。請繼續。

Thank you, Denise.

謝謝你，丹尼斯。

Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Surabhi Varshney and with me today are Mark Rohr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Jensen, Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Sutton, Chief Operating Officer.

歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2017年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Surabhi Varshney，今天與我一起的還有董事長兼執行長 Mark Rohr、財務長 Chris Jensen 和營運長 Scott Sutton。

Celanese Corporation's third quarter 2017 earnings release was distributed via Business Wire yesterday after market close. The slides and our prepared comments for the quarter were also posted on our website, www.celanese.com, in the Investor Relations section.

塞拉尼斯公司 2017 年第三季財報於昨日收盤後透過 Business Wire 發布。本季的幻燈片和我們準備好的評論也發佈在我們的網站 www.celanese.com 的投資者關係部分。

As a reminder, some of the matters discussed today and included in our presentation may include forward-looking statements concerning, for example, Celanese Corporation's future objectives and results. Please note the cautionary language contained in the posted slides.

提醒一下，今天討論的以及我們簡報中包含的一些事項可能包括前瞻性陳述，例如有關塞拉尼斯公司未來目標和業績的陳述。請注意所張貼幻燈片中的警告性語言。

Also, some of the matters discussed and presented include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Explanations of these measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures are included with the press release and are on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financial Information.

此外，討論和提出的一些事項還包括對非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。這些指標的解釋和與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳已包含在新聞稿中，並可在我們網站的「財務資訊」下的「投資者關係」部分中找到。

The earnings release and the non-GAAP reconciliations have been submitted to the SEC on Form 8-K. The slides and prepared comments have also been submitted to the SEC on a separate Form 8-K.

收益報告和非公認會計準則對帳表已以 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。幻燈片和準備好的評論也已透過單獨的 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

This morning, we'll begin with introductory comments from Mark Rohr and then open up for your questions.

今天上午，我們將先由馬克‧羅爾 (Mark Rohr) 作介紹性評論，然後回答大家的提問。

I'd like to turn the call over to Mark now.

我現在想把電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Surabhi, and welcome, everyone.

謝謝你，蘇拉比，歡迎大家。

We posted our prepared remarks along with our earnings yesterday, so I'll limit my comments and then open the line for questions.

我們昨天發布了準備好的評論以及我們的收益，所以我將限制我的評論，然後開放提問熱線。

Starting with Hurricane Harvey. All 3 of our Texas sites, Clear Lake, Bay City and Bishop, were directly affected by the storm. All units were quickly restarted, but logistic disruptions proved to be a challenge. We estimate $11 million in direct expenses and another $20 million to $30 million in lost profit opportunity as a result of the hurricane and flood. It took extraordinary supply chain and commercial actions to overcome these headwinds and we are very proud of our teams who worked tirelessly to overcome this disaster and deliver strong results this quarter.

從颶風哈維開始。我們位於德克薩斯州的所有三個站點，Clear Lake、Bay City 和 Bishop，都直接受到了風暴的影響。所有單位都迅速重新啟動，但後勤中斷仍然是一個挑戰。我們估計颶風和洪水造成的直接損失為 1,100 萬美元，另外還損失了 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元的獲利機會。我們採取了非凡的供應鏈和商業行動來克服這些不利因素，我們為我們的團隊不懈努力克服這場災難並在本季度取得強勁業績感到非常自豪。

Regarding the tow venture with Blackstone, we have filed for regulatory approval in all 6 jurisdictions and have already received approval in Mexico. We anticipate that the European Commission will continue to assess the tow JV over the coming months, with a final decision potentially in late spring of 2018.

關於與黑石集團的拖車合資企業，我們已經向所有 6 個司法管轄區的監管部門提交了申請，並且已經獲得了墨西哥的批准。我們預計歐盟委員會將在未來幾個月繼續評估該拖車合資企業，並可能在 2018 年春末做出最終決定。

For consolidated results in the quarter of 2017, GAAP earnings were $1.68 per share with adjusted earnings of $1.93 per share. Record adjusted earnings per share came in at 16% above the level last year despite the hurricane. We also returned $260 million of cash to investors, of which $200 million went to share repurchase and $62 million to dividends.

2017 年季度綜合業績：GAAP 收益為每股 1.68 美元，調整後收益為每股 1.93 美元。儘管遭遇颶風，但調整後的每股盈餘仍比去年同期高出 16%，創歷史新高。我們也向投資者返還了 2.6 億美元現金，其中 2 億美元用於股票回購，6,200 萬美元用於股息。

The Acetyl Chain core income of $157 million in the third quarter improved 44% year-over-year on sales of $863 million. We were positioned for an improvement -- an improved environment for the acetyls business in the second half of the year in solid uplift occurring before the storm. Segment income margin for Acetyl Intermediates was an all-time high this quarter of 19.6%, primarily driven by acetic acid pricing in Asia.

第三季乙醯鏈核心營收為 1.57 億美元，年增 44%，銷售額為 8.63 億美元。我們已做好準備迎接改善——在風暴來臨之前，乙醯基業務下半年的環境將得到改善，業務將穩步提升。本季乙醯中間體的分部營收利潤率創下 19.6% 的歷史新高，主要受亞洲乙酸定價的推動。

Materials Solutions registered record net sales of $730 million in the third quarter. Segment income in AEM increased 16% year-over-year to $147 million on net sales of $543 million, both records. In the quarter, we commercialized 585 projects, which set us up to deliver more than 2,100 projects for the full year.

材料解決方案部門第三季淨銷售額創紀錄地達到 7.3 億美元。AEM 分部營收年增 16% 至 1.47 億美元，淨銷售額達 5.43 億美元，均創歷史新高。本季度，我們實現了 585 個專案的商業化，全年交付專案數量將超過 2,100 個。

In Consumer Specialties, segment income in the third quarter was $79 million with segment income margin of 42%. Tow price and volume declined in the quarter versus the third quarter of 2016 due to lower industry utilization rates that we previously discussed.

在消費品特種業務方面，第三季部門營收為 7,900 萬美元，部門營收利潤率為 42%。由於我們之前討論過的行業利用率下降，本季拖車價格和數量與 2016 年第三季相比有所下降。

Affiliate earnings in Materials Solutions were $71 million for the quarter, up 18% year-over-year.

本季材料解決方案的附屬公司收益為 7,100 萬美元，年增 18%。

Now taking a first look at next year. In AEM, we expect new project commercializations, M&A and base business volume growth, net of the planned site turnarounds, to add $0.50 to $0.60 to adjusted earnings per share in 2018. In the Acetyls Chain, we expect commercial momentum to create additional value uplift of $0.35 to $0.45 of earnings per share. Along with other growth related costs in the range of $0.15, we contemplate year-over-year adjusted earnings growth in the range of 9% to 13% in 2018. We'll provide a more detailed look and updated view of 2018 earnings during the January call.

現在先來展望一下明年。在 AEM 中，我們預計新項目商業化、併購和基礎業務量成長（扣除計畫中的站點週轉）將使 2018 年調整後每股收益增加 0.50 美元至 0.60 美元。在乙醯基鏈中，我們預計商業動能將為每股收益創造 0.35 美元至 0.45 美元的額外價值提升。加上 0.15 美元範圍內的其他成長相關成本，我們預計 2018 年調整後的獲利年增將在 9% 至 13% 之間。我們將在一月份的電話會議上提供更詳細的 2018 年收益概覽和最新觀點。

Closing out the year, we expect the sustained improvement in the Acetyls Chain and Materials core to continue, offset a bit by typical fourth quarter seasonality. Considering these factors, we are confident in our ability to end the year at the high end of our 9% to 11% range for 2017.

在今年年底，我們預計乙醯基鍊和材料核心業務將繼續持續改善，但將受到第四季度典型季節性因素的一定程度抵消。考慮到這些因素，我們有信心在 2017 年底實現 9% 至 11% 的高點成長。

Thank you, Mark. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，馬克。（操作員指示）

Denise, please open the line for questions now.

丹尼斯，請現在打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question this morning will be from Robert Koort of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）今天早上您的第一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特·庫爾特 (Robert Koort)。

I was wondering, in your commentary you mentioned M&A still being a component of the AEM growth. Can you give us some sense of scale of assets or properties you're looking at and how much might be baked into that guidance for next year?

我想知道，您在評論中提到併購仍然是 AEM 成長的一個組成部分。您能否向我們介紹您正在關注的資產或財產的規模，以及明年的指導中可能包含多少資產或財產？

Yes. Well, there's nothing new baked in the guidance beyond what we currently have in the accretion of the current acquisitions that we've done. And I'll carry folks back to the Investor Day we had a few years ago where we put forth this objective of $800 million to $850 million. In that, the difference between $800 million and the $850 million was incremental M&A, so you think $100 million of M&A profit, and of course, there was $100 million more tow in that number. So we really, in a corrective basis, we're more like $750 million in that.

是的。嗯，除了我們目前所進行的收購之外，這份指導中並沒有什麼新內容。我想讓大家回顧一下幾年前的投資人日，當時我們提出了 8 億至 8.5 億美元的目標。其中，8 億美元和 8.5 億美元之間的差額是增量併購，所以你認為是 1 億美元的併購利潤，當然，這個數字中還有 1 億美元的拖累。因此，從修正角度來看，我們的投資金額其實更像是 7.5 億美元。

So what I would say is that to push on to the $850 million number, we probably need some additional M&A to help us close that gap. What we're looking up for in scope. I think we're not limiting ourselves to just bolt-ons, but Bob, that's where most of our activity is these days is continuing to look for and finding, and we hope to adding soon, bolt-on -- more bolt-on properties.

所以我想說的是，為了達到 8.5 億美元這個數字，我們可能需要一些額外的併購來幫助我們縮小差距。我們正在尋找的範圍。我認為我們不會將自己局限於附加功能，但是鮑勃，我們最近的大部分活動就是繼續尋找和發現，我們希望很快添加附加功能 - 更多附加屬性。

And would you expect those deals to continue to be, I don't want to call it niche-y, but less of the high-volume, lower priced stuff and more of the high-priced, lower volume stuff? Or is it -- do you have the potential -- obviously you've gotten into the nylon business a little bit. Could you be looking at some higher volume engineering resins?

您是否希望這些交易繼續保持這種狀態？我不想稱之為利基市場，但大批量、低價商品會減少，而高價位、小批量商品會增加？或者是——您有潛力嗎——顯然您已經涉足尼龍業務了。您是否正在考慮一些產量更高的工程樹脂？

Yes. Yes. And I think, directionally, we're practicing this process. The team is getting very good at it. We've approached a few deals as you've suggested there and maybe it's not worked out for us, but yes, that's an area for us that we continue to look at.

是的。是的。我認為，從方向上看，我們正在實踐這個過程。該團隊在這方面做得越來越好。我們已經按照您的建議接觸了一些交易，也許沒有成功，但沒錯，我們會繼續關注這個領域。

The next question will come from Duffy Fischer of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Question -- obviously, terrific growth in AEM. First time in a while, it looks like you're having to put some meaningful capital with expansions. How should we think about the incremental returns on that capital? How much will it cost to keep growing kind of at the rate we've seen the last couple of years?

問題——顯然，AEM 取得了驚人的成長。這是一段時間以來第一次，看起來您必須在擴張上投入一些有意義的資金。我們該如何看待該資本的增量回報？如果要維持過去幾年那樣的成長速度，需要花多少錢？

Duffy, it's Chris. Typically, our organic growth capital is the highest returning investment that we have, higher than M&A. So if you conservatively put our cost of capital at 10%, it's far in excess of that.

達菲，我是克里斯。通常，我們的有機成長資本是我們回報率最高的投資，高於併購。因此，如果你保守地將我們的資本成本定為 10%，那麼它就遠遠超過了這個數字。

Okay. And then, on the segment EPS increase that you talked about, is that using a like-on-like share count or is that assuming some benefit from the share buyback when we think about that rolling through the segments?

好的。然後，關於您談到的分部每股盈餘的成長，是使用同類股票數量，還是假設當我們考慮在各個分部之間進行股票回購時會獲得一些好處？

So I think we said in the prepared remarks that sort of the below the business stuff is an incremental of $0.15, so that's net of some benefit of share repurchases, but not new share repurchases. Rather, the rollover of some of the share repurchases that we did in 2017.

所以我認為我們在準備好的評論中說過，以下業務內容的增量為 0.15 美元，所以這是扣除股票回購的部分收益，但不是新股票回購。而是延續我們在 2017 年進行的部分股票回購。

The next question will come from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的大衛·貝格萊特提出。

Mark, can you discuss the C gasket market right now? How it's progressing through the year? And specifically, what's happening in China from your perspective?

馬克，你能討論一下現在的 C 墊片市場嗎？今年進展如何？具體來說，從您的角度來看，中國正在發生什麼？

Yes. I'll make a few comments and then Scott actually could weigh in here. But we started out this year and we gave our projections for the year. [As far as] our range, we're very careful to note to everyone that we anticipated, expected, based on what we saw, the business to improve as we went through the year. And so we had taken steps early in the year to prepare for that and, in fact, we saw that. So we have seen an improving trends in this business, particularly in China, and that's prompted -- it's allowed us really to take advantage of our global supply chain and the systems that we have in place to differentiate it.

是的。我會發表一些評論，然後斯科特實際上可以在這裡發表意見。但我們今年已經開始了，並且給出了今年的預測。[就]我們的產品範圍而言，我們非常謹慎地向所有人指出，根據我們所看到的情況，我們預計，隨著時間的流逝，業務將會改善。因此，我們在今年年初就採取了措施為此做好準備，事實上，我們也看到了這一點。因此，我們看到這個行業的趨勢正在改善，特別是在中國，這促使我們真正利用我們的全球供應鏈和現有的系統來實現差異化。

Scott, you want to provide maybe more local color on China?

史考特，你想提供更多關於中國的本土色彩嗎？

Yes, I will. And, David, I mean, China is an improving environment in acetyls and it's particularly improving in acetic acid, which really drives acetyls in China, which drives acetyls globally as well. I mean, one of the reasons that it's improving is, I mean, China is having to run more of a -- in a real business environment, right? You see regulatory things come in. You see environmental things come in. You see a drive for profit. And all of those things are driving up instantaneous capacity utilization of acid, right? That's different than nameplate capacity utilization, but it's running at a much more comfortable level and that gives us the ability to apply our model quickly. And you see that result coming through and we expect it to continue.

是的，我會。大衛，我的意思是，中國的乙醯環境正在改善，尤其是乙酸的改善，這確實推動了中國的乙醯環境，也推動了全球乙醯環境的發展。我的意思是，情況改善的原因之一是，中國必須在更多的現實商業環境中運作，對嗎？你會看到監管措施開始推出。你會看到環境事物出現。你看到了對利潤的追求。所有這些因素都會提高酸的瞬時容量利用率，對嗎？這與額定產能利用率不同，但它運行在一個更舒適的水平，這使我們能夠快速應用我們的模型。您已經看到了這一結果，並且我們期待它能夠持續下去。

Perfect. Mark, you discussed in the past perhaps doing an acetate tow-like transaction with acetyls, acetic acid. How is the potential looking for 2018?

完美的。馬克，你過去討論過也許可以進行與乙醯基、乙酸類似的乙酸酯絲束交易。2018 年的潛力如何？

Well, I mean, it's been awful specific on dates. So I think we're working hard to -- with all of our businesses, which we think each one leads the world in its own way. We're looking hard to find ways to continue to shore up and monetize those in a way that adds a lot of value to our shareholders. So what I'd say is that we're working that equation, but I wouldn't go so far as to put a date on it.

嗯，我的意思是，日期非常具體。所以我認為我們正在努力開展所有業務，我們認為每個業務都以自己的方式引領世界。我們正在努力尋找方法來繼續鞏固和貨幣化這些資產，以便為我們的股東創造更多價值。所以我想說的是，我們正在計算這個等式，但我不會為此設定一個日期。

The next question will come from Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的弗蘭克‧米奇 (Frank Mitsch)。

Mark, 2 weeks ago, one of your competitors suffered an outage. Can you talk about how that has impacted your business over the past couple of weeks and what the outlook would be?

馬克，兩週前，你的一個競爭對手遭遇了停電。您能談談過去幾週這對您的業務有何影響以及前景如何嗎？

Well, really, yes, there was an event. You guys are aware of the event and fortunately -- I think [really good ask on our part] nobody was hurt out of that event and the community wasn't impacted, so that's really a positive thing.

嗯，確實，有一個活動。你們都知道這個事件，幸運的是——我認為（我們這邊問得非常好）沒有人在該事件中受傷，社區也沒有受到影響，所以這真的是一件好事。

We haven't really seen that big of an impact at that. It really is a function of how long that event lasts. And whether it really rolls itself through the market in a big way, I think is -- time will tell that.

我們還沒有真正看到那麼大的影響。這實際上取決於事件持續時間。至於它是否真的會在市場上大規模推廣，我認為時間會證明一切。

All right. What sort of lingering effect, if any, are you seeing from Harvey? You obviously sized the impact in September. How should we think about that in Q4?

好的。您認為哈維颶風會帶來什麼樣的後遺症？您顯然已經評估了 9 月的影響。我們在第四季應該如何考慮這個問題？

Well, as we speak today, we're still trying to get barge traffic to Bay City. We have 4 dredges. I'm looking at Scott, lined up outside the plants, trying to dredge the last few miles of the silted up Colorado River. We've been supplying that plant site with trucks and rails and mule trains and anything else the logistics team can get in place to get material down there and get product out. So there's a cost -- ongoing cost impact in that. We're able to run it fairly successfully, though. We found ways to run it fairly successfully. So I think, largely, the ripple effects are over from that storm and I wouldn't anticipate losses this quarter -- material losses this quarter as a result of it.

嗯，就在我們今天講話的時候，我們仍在努力讓駁船運送到灣城。我們有4艘疏浚船。我看著史考特在工廠外排隊，試著疏通科羅拉多河淤塞的最後幾英里。我們一直為該工廠提供卡車、鐵軌、騾隊以及物流團隊可以獲得的任何其他物資，以便將材料運送到那裡並將產品運出。因此，這會產生成本——持續的成本影響。但我們能夠相當成功地運行它。我們找到了相當成功運行它的方法。因此，我認為，這場風暴的連鎖反應基本上已經結束，我預計本季不會出現損失——也不會因此造成重大損失。

The next question will come from P.J. Juvekar of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 P.J. Juvekar。

Mark, you included things, over 2,000 projects. That's almost 10 projects a day and you're going to 3,000 next year. So how much of these projects are cannibalizing existing products versus how much are, we'll just say, new products like your hammer handle example?

馬克，你囊括了超過 2,000 個項目。這幾乎意味著每天有 10 個項目，明年將達到 3,000 個。那麼，這些項目中有多少是蠶食現有產品的，又有多少是蠶食新產品（例如您舉的錘柄例子）呢？

Well, I don't think there's any cannibalization going on. I mean, they -- by definition, they have to be new. So it's a new application or a new customer that we're going in to put an application into. So having said that, there may be some substitution where a person's going from -- moving in a lateral way so -- but largely, I think it's -- they're new. Scott, would you agree with that?

嗯，我不認為有任何蠶食現象發生。我的意思是，根據定義，它們必須是新的。因此，這是一個新的應用程式或我們要放入應用程式的新客戶。話雖如此，但可能存在一些替代，即一個人從某種程度上橫向移動，但總體而言，我認為，他們是新的。斯科特，你同意嗎？

No. I mean, all those projects are new. I mean, it's true, P.J, there is some attrition in the business, right, as models change and models go away, but very rarely do we have a new project that actually replaces something that we were already doing and that's called a project. I mean, it's really new growth, which helps offset normal attrition that's going on in the business. Are we answering your question?

不。我的意思是，所有這些項目都是新的。我的意思是，P.J，業務中確實存在一些人員流失，對吧，因為模型會改變，模型會消失，但我們很少有新專案能夠真正取代我們已經在做的事情，而這才叫做專案。我的意思是，這確實是一種新的成長，有助於抵消業務中正在發生的正常人員流失。我們回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes. Yes. That's good. And what is the typical margin uplift from these new products? And I'm wondering why you didn't see a margin uplift until the margins declined? Was that due to raw materials with the hurricanes?

是的。是的。那挺好的。這些新產品的利潤率通常會提高多少？我想知道為什麼直到利潤率下降時才看到利潤率上升？這是因為颶風導致的原料問題嗎？

Yes. I mean, as far as the margin's slight decline that you see, P.J., I mean, we do have some impacts in this business from Harvey in the quarter. We lost some sales and have some cost there, but it is the M&A and the fact that we're selling heavily into Asia. That's the real margin issue. I kind of missed the first part of that question that you had, though.

是的。我的意思是，就您所看到的利潤率略有下降而言，P.J.，我的意思是，本季度哈維颶風確實對我們業務產生了一些影響。我們在那裡損失了一些銷售額並產生了一些成本，但這是併購以及我們大量向亞洲銷售的事實。這才是真正的利潤問題。不過，我有點錯過了你問題的第一部分。

No. I was asking what is the typical margin uplift from these new products that you're introducing?

不。我問的是，你們推出的這些新產品的利潤率通常會提高多少？

Yes, margin uplift. I got it. All the new projects come in at quite a high contribution margin, right? But on the other hand, we continue to support the business for growth and that adds a bit of cost. And that's why we get back to this guidance that if you think about the base business, including the acquisitions we do, so that's without affiliate earnings, with okay margin, think about there from an EBIT standpoint is around 20% trying to hold that level.

是的，利潤率提高了。我得到了它。所有新項目的貢獻利潤都相當高，對嗎？但另一方面，我們持續支持業務成長，這會增加一些成本。這就是為什麼我們要回到這個指導方針，如果你考慮基礎業務，包括我們所做的收購，那麼就沒有聯營公司的收入，利潤率還可以，從息稅前利潤的角度來看，大約是 20%，試圖保持這個水平。

The next question will come from Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

I guess, first, could you characterize what you're seeing in terms of year-end shutdowns or any noise you think about viewing the bridge from Q4 to Q1 or how customers are behaving given the turbulence this year?

我想，首先，您能否描述一下您所看到的年底停工情況，或者您認為從第四季度到第一季的過渡期會出現哪些噪音，或者考慮到今年的動盪，客戶的行為如何？

Yes. I don't think, Laurence, there's anything unusual with that. What -- we're coming off a pretty volatile quarter and so I don't want to forecast exactly what's going on there. But typically, folks tend to calm down a little bit as you get the holiday season and things tend to moderate a bit, but I'm not aware of -- looking on the table, I'm not aware of any big outage anyway that's really going to have a major impact on us one way or the other.

是的。勞倫斯，我不認為這有什麼不尋常的。我們剛剛經歷了一個相當動蕩的季度，所以我不想準確預測接下來會發生什麼。但通常情況下，隨著假期的到來，人們往往會稍微平靜下來，事情也會趨於緩和，但我不知道——從目前的情況來看，我不知道有任何大規模停電會對我們造成重大影響。

Yes. And, Mark, I would just say it's kind of your normal collection. I mean, every quarter, there's some...

是的。馬克，我只想說，這只是你的正常收藏。我的意思是，每個季度都會有一些…

Something (inaudible).

某事（聽不清楚）。

And Q4 is not going to be that different. Yes.

第四季也不會有太大不同。是的。

And then, secondly, on the trends in China, could you flesh out a little bit your thinking currently about the degree of demand pull for AEM in China, the degree to which you need to build capacity specifically there to serve that market?

其次，關於中國的趨勢，您能否稍微闡述一下您目前對中國 AEM 需求拉動程度的看法，以及您需要在多大程度上專門建立產能來服務該市場？

Yes. Sure. So this is Scott again. I mean, look, the demand pull in Asia, particularly China, is strong in our Engineered Materials business. I mean, all market segments are up. In fact, globally, for us, all market segments are up. But especially in China, you see good growth in consumer. You see -- we're starting to see some traction in medical there and the rest of the world as well. So it really is a combination of 2 things. One, there's great demand. Number 2, the China market is hungry for our model where we can really go in and offer a whole bunch of unique solutions. And so I see that trend continuing.

是的。當然。再次請見我，我是斯科特。我的意思是，亞洲，特別是中國，對我們的工程材料業務的需求強勁。我的意思是，所有細分市場都在上漲。事實上，從全球來看，對我們來說，所有細分市場都在上漲。但尤其是在中國，你會看到消費者的良好成長。你看——我們開始看到那裡以及世界其他地方的醫療領域取得了一些進展。所以它實際上是兩件事的結合。一是需求量很大。第二，中國市場渴望我們的模式，我們可以真正進入中國市場並提供大量獨特的解決方案。所以我認為這種趨勢將會持續下去。

The next question will come from Jeff Zekauskas of JP Morgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I have a question about your cash flow slide, in that what you say is you anticipate cash generation of $6.2 billion between 2016 and 2020, including the dividend of $1.6 billion from the JV. So if we subtract out the JV dividend of $1.6 billion, there's $4.6 billion left. So is what you're saying that, over a 5-year period, you're going to generate $4.6 billion in cash or $920 million a year? Or is that a 4-year period? How do you do the calculation?

我對您的現金流量幻燈片有一個疑問，您說您預計 2016 年至 2020 年期間的現金產生額為 62 億美元，其中包括合資企業的 16 億美元股息。因此，如果我們減去 16 億美元的合資股息，還剩下 46 億美元。那麼，您的意思是，在 5 年的時間裡，您將產生 46 億美元現金或每年 9.2 億美元？或者這是一個 4 年的時間？你如何計算？

Yes, Jeff. It is 5 years. So if you think of our current strategy period of 2018 to 2020 that we'll talk about early next year in our Investor Day, for that 3-year period, this is $2.9 billion or $3 billion of free cash flow across 3 years. So you're about right on that average.

是的，傑夫。已經5年了。因此，如果您想想我們目前的 2018 年至 2020 年戰略期（我們將在明年年初的投資者日上討論），那麼在這 3 年期間，這將是 29 億美元或 30 億美元的自由現金流。所以你對這個平均值的判斷基本上都正確。

Okay. Great. And then, for my follow-up, there's a Chinese initiative to have E10 nationwide in 2020. Is that something that would benefit Celanese? Or is it irrelevant to Celanese if it's actually enacted? Or do you think it will be enacted?

好的。偉大的。然後，我的後續問題是，中國計劃在 2020 年在全國範圍內實現 E10 目標。這對塞拉尼斯有利嗎？或者說，即使法案真的頒布，對塞拉尼斯來說也無關緊要？或者您認為它會被頒布嗎？

Yes. And so this is Scott. And you're right, it is. I actually think it's probably going to happen one year earlier. That's the intention from China is to make that happen one year earlier where 10% of all of the cars sold are EVs, right? And there is -- we see a big push there. I don't know that they will be completely successful to get to 10%, but it is a pretty dynamic change. And that kind of move is good for Celanese because we offer a lot of solutions into the EV market, not just the car itself because the cars are new, that helps, but also the batteries as well. So it's a positive trend for us.

是的。這就是斯科特。你說得對，確實如此。我實際上認為這可能會提前一年發生。中國的意圖是提前一年實現這一目標，即所有銷售的汽車中 10% 是電動車，對嗎？而且我們看到那裡有巨大的推動力。我不知道他們是否能夠完全成功達到 10%，但這是一個相當動態的變化。此舉對塞拉尼斯來說是件好事，因為我們為電動車市場提供了許多解決方案，不僅是汽車本身（因為汽車是新型的，這很有幫助），還有電池。所以這對我們來說是一個正面的趨勢。

The next question will come from Mike Sison of KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

Mark, when you think about AEM, the new project growth continues to be pretty impressive. Can you maybe talk about some of the markets? Particularly as you look to get to 3,000 next year, what are the areas that are looking to replace sort of the materials with polymers? And do you need to find new markets at this point, given you've maybe saturated some of these areas?

馬克，當你想到 AEM 時，新項目的成長仍然相當令人印象深刻。您能談談一些市場嗎？特別是當您希望明年達到 3,000 時，哪些領域正在考慮用聚合物取代材料？鑑於你們可能已經在某些領域飽和，你們現在是否需要尋找新的市場？

Well, I don't know if we've saturated anything, but Mike, there's just tremendous desire on the part of all manufacturers of consumer goods to continually evolve and update and make more contemporary their goods. So there's -- that evolution is ongoing.

嗯，我不知道我們是否已經飽和了，但是麥克，所有消費品製造商都迫切希望不斷發展和更新，使他們的產品更具現代感。所以，這種演變仍在繼續。

What I will say is that medical continues to be a big area of focus for us. We put more attention there. We think there's a lot of opportunities in medical and so that's a growing segment for us. The electronics segment that we set up recently. Of course, not a lot to be played in electronic. We haven't been focused on it as much as legacy Celanese and that's an area of real growth for us.

我想說的是，醫療仍然是我們關注的重點領域。我們對此給予了更多的關注。我們認為醫療領域有很多機會，因此這對我們來說是一個不斷增長的領域。我們最近成立的電子部門。當然，用電子方式播放的並不多。我們還沒有像塞拉尼斯那樣關注這一點，但這對我們來說是一個真正的成長領域。

And I would say broadly in consumer applications. We gave an example in the handout that we did, a hammer handle. I know it sounds, in some ways, a bit low tech, but it's a pretty impressive opportunity to use some of our technology. And we're seeing lots of interest from players like that really to upgrade in many ways. Automotive remains important for us and we're demonstrating really strong growth in automotive in spite of global trends. And that really is also one of the continual upgrade that we talked about earlier. So I would list those 4 as areas of real focus.

我想廣泛地說，在消費應用領域。我們在做的講義中給了一個例子：錘子柄。我知道從某種程度上來說這聽起來有點低技術含量，但這是一個使用我們的一些技術的相當令人印象深刻的機會。我們看到很多玩家對升級有很多興趣。汽車對我們而言仍然很重要，儘管全球趨勢如此，但我們在汽車領域仍表現出強勁的成長勢頭。這其實也是我們之前談到的持續升級之一。因此，我將把這 4 個列為真正關注的領域。

Okay. And then, when you think about $0.50 to $0.60 EPS per share growth in AEM in '18 versus '17, is the turnarounds a big negative impact? And then, how much of that growth will come from the Ibn Sina production expansion?

好的。然後，當您考慮到 2018 年 AEM 每股收益與 2017 年相比增長 0.50 美元至 0.60 美元時，這種轉變是否會產生很大的負面影響？那麼，其中有多少成長將來自於伊本西納的生產擴張？

Yes. So we have -- we are -- we do have some turnouts slated in Materials next year that takes away from that total. So absent tows, it could be another $0.05 to $0.10 higher, I would think, in there in the base business. So Ibn Sina contribution is -- I don't think -- we haven't said what that is, but it's not de minimis.

是的。因此，我們——我們——明年材料方面確實有一些計劃，這會影響總數。因此，我認為，如果沒有拖車，基礎業務的成本可能會再增加 0.05 到 0.10 美元。因此，我認為伊本西納的貢獻是——我們沒有說它是什麼，但它不是微不足道的。

Yes. It's not de minimis. This is Scott. I mean, I would say you'll see less of that Ibn Sina POM contribution through equity income and a little bit more that's in our base business because it basically supplies some of those products to our base business to go out and execute projects by.

是的。這不是微不足道的事。這是斯科特。我的意思是，我想說，你會看到 Ibn Sina POM 透過股權收入做出的貢獻越來越少，而對我們的基礎業務做出的貢獻則越來越多，因為它基本上為我們的基礎業務提供了一些產品，以便我們可以出去執行專案。

The next question will come from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Chris, just on the working capital comments this year vis a vis your free cash flow targets. Is that a new level of working capital based on the growth rate or some of this stuff that's just going to reverse next year and help free cash flow next year?

克里斯，關於今年營運資本的評論，請與你的自由現金流目標進行比較。這是基於成長率的新營運資本水平，還是明年將出現逆轉並有助於明年實現自由現金流的因素？

Yes. Let me sort of take that in 2 pieces. So first, we're -- as you know, we came out now and said, look, we're going to be towards the higher end of our guidance. We've had some nice growth across the business and along with that, when it's top line growth, comes an investment in working capital.

是的。讓我把它分成兩個部分。首先，正如你所知，我們現在說，看，我們將達到指導的更高水平。我們的整個業務都取得了良好的成長，同時，在收入成長的同時，營運資本的投資也隨之增加。

The other thing that's driving that, you heard talk -- Scott talk about strength in Asia. And when our business is growing in Asia quickly as it is right now in acetyls and has been for a couple of years in Engineered Materials, you're growing in a region of the world that typically has longer payment terms for accounts receivable. So that's why we've come out and said, look, working capital may be a little higher than we thought.

推動這一趨勢的另一個因素是，你聽到了史考特談論亞洲的實力。當我們的業務在亞洲快速成長時，就像現在乙醯基業務一樣，並且工程材料業務已經成長了幾年，那麼您是在世界上一個通常應收帳款付款期限較長的地區發展。這就是為什麼我們會說，看，營運資金可能比我們想像的要高一點。

To answer the second part of your question, I think that continues on into 2018 provided the business stays strong in Asia and raw material prices stay a little bit elevated. If that -- if those things reverse, then yes, your working capital would reverse.

回答你問題的第二部分，我認為，只要亞洲業務保持強勁，原材料價格保持略高，這種情況將持續到 2018 年。如果情況逆轉，那麼你的營運資金就會逆轉。

Okay. And then, shockingly, no one's asked about acetate tow yet, so I will. It sounds like you're expecting the segment to be flat next year. If you could comment on where price negotiations are for the uncontracted portion of your volume. And then, any thoughts or comments you have about the FDA's recent indication they'd like to take nicotine out of cigarettes over some period of time and what impact that might have? I can see some good things and bad things from that for your business depending on how it shakes out, so any thoughts would be great.

好的。然後，令人震驚的是，還沒有人問過有關醋酸絲束的問題，所以我會問。聽起來您預計明年該部分將會持平。如果您可以評論一下未簽約部分的價格談判情況。那麼，您對 FDA 最近表示他們希望在一段時間內從香菸中去除尼古丁有什麼想法或評論，以及這可能產生什麼影響？我可以從中看到對您的業務有利有弊，這取決於事情的發展，所以任何想法都很好。

Yes. And so, Vince, this is Scott. Look, as far as contract season and so forth, so some part of that business is locked for another year or 2. Another part, we've already been through negotiations on. There's a smaller part still yet to be finalized. And there's still a competitive nature in that industry. There's some price pressure. But generally speaking, I mean, I think you'll see us come out with 2018 relatively flat compared to 2017. So it's really at this trough state.

是的。那麼，文斯，這是斯科特。你看，就合約季節等等而言，部分業務將被鎖定一兩年。另一部分，我們已經進行了談判。還有一小部分尚未最終完成。該行業仍然存在競爭。存在一些價格壓力。但總的來說，我認為你會看到我們 2018 年的表現與 2017 年相比相對持平。所以它確實處於低谷狀態。

On your second -- the second question there, the FDA coming out with a proposal, right, to be -- to move out nicotine. I think it's unknown how that will impact the industry. The reality is, depending on the delivery system, the demand for cigarettes could either go up to get the same amount of nicotine or go down. So we really don't know.

關於你的第二個問題，FDA 提出了一個提案，對，就是要淘汰尼古丁。我認為這會對行業產生什麼影響還是未知數。實際情況是，根據輸送系統的不同，在獲得相同量的尼古丁的情況下，對香菸的需求可能會上升，也可能下降。所以我們真的不知道。

The next question will be from John Roberts of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

I'd like to go back to Jeff's earlier question, which Scott, I think, you answered as an electric vehicle question in China, but I thought he had asked about E10, which is another announcement that China had back in September. And I would think if they're going to go coal-based, that's something you would know about, but it doesn't seem to make sense for them to go corn-based given the imports. So do you have any thoughts on that announcement?

我想回到傑夫之前的問題，史考特，我認為你回答的是一個關於中國電動車的問題，但我認為他問的是 E10，這是中國 9 月發布的另一項公告。我認為，如果他們要轉向以煤炭為基礎的能源，這是你應該知道的事情，但考慮到進口量，轉向以玉米為基礎的能源似乎沒有意義。那麼您對該聲明有什麼看法？

Okay. Yes. Okay. Sorry, I heard EV, but I think you said E10. Got it. Yes, on the -- on ethanol, how will it go. Look, that's kind of a no impact for us. We don't expect that to be material to us in either way.

好的。是的。好的。抱歉，我聽到的是 EV，但我認為您說的是 E10。知道了。是的，關於乙醇，進展如何。看，這對我們沒什麼影響。無論如何，我們並不認為這對我們有什麼重大影響。

And then, on the Celstran polyacetal and the ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene expansions, would the capital required there scale off of past reactor capacities? Or is there anything that would make those more or less capital-efficient projects for you?

那麼，Celstran 聚縮醛和超高分子量聚乙烯擴建項目所需的資本是否會根據過去的反應器容量進行調整？或有什麼因素會使這些專案的資本效率更高或更低？

Yes. I mean, look, as far as the ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene, part of that is incrementally expanding capacity and another part of that is a substantial additional system at a site where we already produce that. So you can think of all of those expansions as being incremental. The other part of that, the LFT part, is effectively just another line at a site where we already produce it.

是的。我的意思是，就超高分子量聚乙烯而言，一部分是逐步擴大產能，另一部分是在我們已經生產該產能的工廠建立一個龐大的附加系統。因此，你可以將所有這些擴展視為增量的。其中的另一部分，LFT 部分，實際上只是我們已經生產它的工廠的另一條生產線。

The next question will come from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

A question on capital deployment. You bought back $200 million of stock in the third quarter, yet your prepared remarks, I think you commented that you do not expect additional repurchases unless they are opportunistic or relate to the tow JV. So I'm just wondering if you could clarify some of the thinking around the opportunistic piece of that and how you're weighing your options for capital deployment through year-end.

關於資本配置的問題。您在第三季回購了價值 2 億美元的股票，但在您準備好的發言中，我認為您評論說，您不希望進行額外的回購，除非它們是機會性的或與兩家合資企業有關。所以我只是想知道您是否可以澄清一些有關機會主義的想法，以及您如何權衡到年底的資本部署選擇。

This is Chris. We're always looking for buying opportunities. But in general, now that we've completed $500 million of share repurchases, that is what we set out to do this year, so that's likely the ending point for the year. I just don't want to ever say never and just depending on what kind of opportunities we have. The piece that's tied to the JV, that really is repurchases that will be timed together with the proceeds that come from the day one dividend on that joint venture.

這是克里斯。我們一直在尋找購買機會。但總的來說，現在我們已經完成了 5 億美元的股票回購，這就是我們今年要做的，所以這很可能是今年的終點。我只是不想說永遠，只是取決於我們有什麼樣的機會。與合資企業相關的部分實際上是回購，其時間與合資企業第一天股息的收益同時進行。

Understood. And then, as a follow-up, Mark, I was wondering if you could speak to the margin outlook in AEM. You've obviously had some mix effects related to your acquisitions. Perhaps you could elaborate on what's going on with the underlying margins and your efforts to raise the margins on the acquired properties?

明白了。然後，作為後續問題，馬克，我想知道您是否可以談談 AEM 的利潤前景。您的收購顯然產生了一些混合效應。也許您可以詳細說明一下基本利潤的情況以及您為提高所收購資產的利潤所做的努力？

Well, those businesses, as we've said earlier, were -- and to be honest, most of the businesses we look at, unfortunately, have much lower margins than we do. So there's a process you have to go through to rebuild those margins, get them to our area.

嗯，正如我們之前所說的，這些企業的利潤率——老實說，不幸的是，我們所關注的大多數企業的利潤率都比我們低得多。因此，你必須經歷一個過程來重建這些邊緣，並將它們帶到我們的區域。

Two elements to that. One is just pure productivity, which is certainly underway, and that helps. That also includes loading the assets up. And some of the expansions the team rolled out last week helped us load a piece of that -- these assets and dilute the costs associated with the operations. The third part is mix upgrade. We're going through a process now of really upgrading the quality of the products that are produced and the -- by that, the marginal contribution quality of the products that are produced away from some of the low-end products and in the products that are -- we can think more consistent with Celanese. So those 3 things are under way.

這有兩個要素。一是純粹的生產力，這肯定正在進行中，而且有幫助。這也包括加載資產。團隊上週推出的一些擴充功能幫助我們增加了一部分資產，並降低了與營運相關的成本。第三部分是混合升級。我們現在正經歷一個真正提升所生產產品的品質的過程，透過這個過程，我們可以將所生產的產品的邊際貢獻品質從一些低端產品中解放出來，並使這些產品與塞拉尼斯的產品更加一致。所以這三件事正在進行中。

I think we've said the 20% to 22% range is a range where we want to be in that process. We're a little bit lower than that this quarter. So I think you'll see us move back as we get into next year and start pushing that back up a little bit. And be mindful, if we had another deal or 2, as you can see, more downward pressure from that. But net-net, we should be able -- that's the kind of target we have as we go through this acquisition period to be in that low 20s range.

我認為我們已經說過 20% 到 22% 的範圍是我們在過程中想要達到的範圍。本季我們的業績略低於這一水平。因此，我認為，進入明年，你會看到我們有所回落，並開始稍微回升。請記住，如果我們再達成一兩筆交易，正如你所看到的，這將帶來更大的下行壓力。但總體而言，我們應該能夠——這就是我們在收購期間設定的目標，即達到 20 多美元的水平。

The next question will come from Arun Viswanathan of RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just had a question on the Acetyls Chain. Maybe you can just help us understand the $0.35 to $0.45 growth for next year. What's kind of embedded on a pricing outlook standpoint? Do you expect some of the recent pricing to be sustained through next year?

我剛剛對乙醯基鏈有一個疑問。也許您可以幫助我們了解明年 0.35 美元到 0.45 美元的成長。從定價前景的角度來看，它包含哪些內容？您是否預期近期的定價將持續到明年？

Yes. Sure. And this is Scott. Look, I mean, we have momentum going into next year. So the biggest part of that $0.35 to $0.45 a share will be continued margin expansion. The other efforts we have underway have a little bit more to do with growth. So at the same time, we'll be bringing in volume growth. Margin expansion is #1. Number 2 will be some volume growth.

是的。當然。這是斯科特。你看，我的意思是，我們有進入明年的動力。因此，每股 0.35 美元至 0.45 美元中​​最大的部分將是利潤率的持續擴大。我們正在進行的其他努力與成長有更多關係。因此，同時，我們將實現銷量成長。利潤率擴大是第一位的。第二是銷量會有所成長。

And similarly, on the tow side, what gives you guys the confidence that, that will be neutral now after a couple of years of declines?

同樣，在拖車方面，是什麼讓你們有信心，在經歷了幾年的下滑之後，拖車價格現在將保持中性？

Well, I think just our position with where we are in terms of knowing the outlook for next year already. Some contracts done, some recently being done -- were being done right now, a few more to do. We know we have a very good view of where we're going to be next year. There's still work to do there, right? We still have to have a little bit of productivity to get there, but we're working on that. So it's a decent view.

嗯，我認為就我們現在的處境而言，我們已經知道明年的前景。一些合約已經完成，有些最近正在完成——現在正在完成，還有一些要做。我們知道，我們對明年的前景有非常好的預期。那裡還有工作要做，對吧？我們仍然需要一點生產力才能實現這一目標，但我們正在努力。所以這是一個不錯的觀點。

And so if you were to roll it up, I mean, what would you say are some of the swing factors that would kind of push you towards the 13% projected growth for next year?

因此，如果您將其匯總起來，您認為哪些影響因素會推動您實現明年預計的 13% 的成長？

Well, I think again it comes back to hitting in all businesses. I think we have a lot of momentum in acetyls. We can preserve that. We have to see how long we can preserve that at the same level. Engineered Materials, you already see us stepping up our project outlook to be 3,000. And then, we don't have this giant headwind on top of us like we have before with tow. So if you put all those things together and things line out, then we get to the -- closer to the upper end of that guidance.

好吧，我認為它再次回到了所有業務。我認為我們在乙醯基領域有很大的發展勢頭。我們可以保留它。我們必須看看我們能在同一水平上維持多久。工程材料，您已經看到我們將專案前景提升到 3,000。而且，我們不會像以前拖曳時那樣遇到巨大的逆風。因此，如果將所有這些因素綜合起來，那麼我們就能更接近該指導的上限。

The next question will be from Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Just wanted to sort of bring up the 2018 guidance again. Back obviously in 2015, you guys were guiding to long-term, call it, 2018 guidance of $800 million to $850 million. And if I do a compare and contrast where we were in '15 relative to where we are right now, obviously, a couple of moving parts. It seems to me China seems to be a bit better. Europe seems to be a bit better. U.S. seems to be a bit better economy-wise. But obviously, back then, maybe tow wasn't as bad as it looks today. So just want to figure out this sort of new guidance that you are giving of, call it, $804 million to $824 million, where the delta were versus what you guided to, $800 million to $850 million, back in 2015?

只是想再提出 2018 年的指導。顯然，早在 2015 年，你們就制定了長期指導，即 2018 年指導金額為 8 億至 8.5 億美元。如果我將 2015 年的情況與現在的情況進行比較和對比，顯然，有幾個變化的部分。在我看來中國似乎好一點。歐洲似乎稍微好一點。從經濟角度來看，美國似乎好一些。但顯然，在當時，情況可能不如今天看起來那麼糟。所以，我只想弄清楚，您給出的這種新指導，即 8.04 億美元至 8.24 億美元，與 2015 年指導的 8 億美元至 8.5 億美元相比，差距有多大？

Yes. Well, just first off, what we classically do this time of year is share our first look at next year. So I would call a little bit short of annual guidance. That is just the range as we look at our data today that rolls up and we will give -- to the extent there's an official guidance, we will give that in January for the year.

是的。嗯，首先，我們每年這個時候通常會做的事情就是分享我們對明年的展望。因此，我認為年度指導略有不足。這只是我們今天查看的數據的範圍，如果有官方指導，我們將在一月份提供今年的指導。

Nonetheless, when we look at it, we rolled up -- the numbers we put forth that, frankly, I think -- I still believe we could do at $800 million to $850 million -- had a bunch of factors in there, most predominantly was growing the Materials business and we were putting up numbers at that time of starting -- just starting to push new project introductions and there was a lot of skepticism we could do that. I think the team has shown we have the ability to grow that quite handsomely and that's been one of the strongest stories of that -- what would be a 3-year period.

儘管如此，當我們回顧這些數字時，坦白說，我認為，我仍然相信我們可以達到 8 億至 8.5 億美元，其中有很多因素，最主要的是材料業務的增長，我們在開始時就提出了這些數字，剛開始推動新項目的推出，很多人懷疑我們能否做到這一點。我認為團隊已經證明我們有能力實現相當可觀的成長，這是三年期間最有力的故事之一。

I think the second piece to that was the Chain business, how we get the Chain business to move up from trough numbers in the low, low double-digit kind of range and we gave a range I think of 12% to 16% earnings on that. We're starting to demonstrate and we will state what we think the appropriate range is going forward next year, but we've shifted that up with a lot of activity and a lot of things too numerous to mention over this call that have really stabilized that business a lot and give us more global reach with that business. So those 2 things were big, big factors in pushing it forward and gave us that concept of the range.

我認為第二點是連鎖業務，我們如何讓連鎖業務從低谷上升到低兩位數的範圍，我們給出了我認為的 12% 到 16% 的收益範圍。我們開始展示並將說明我們認為明年適當的範圍，但我們已經透過大量活動和許多在這次電話會議上無法一一提及的事情改變了這一範圍，這些活動和事情確實在很大程度上穩定了該業務並使我們在該業務上具有更大的全球影響力。所以這兩件事是推動它向前發展的重要因素，並給了我們這個範圍的概念。

We were very clear that to do the high end of that $800 million to $850 million, we need a material M&A material. So you can translate that in saying that we were thinking maybe $0.50 cents of M&A, which should be $100 million. And, of course, currently, we're maybe 1/3 of that kind of level with the deals that we've done. So if you want to deduct, then you have to deduct that $0.30 off of that for that reason alone. And then, of course, tow was not expected to be down from where we were. It's actually expected to be flat to up. So that's another probably $0.50 cents. So I think in an apples-to-apples basis, it should be more like $750 million next year.

我們非常清楚，要達到 8 億至 8.5 億美元的高端目標，我們需要實質的併購材料。所以你可以這麼理解：我們考慮的可能是 0.50 美分的併購，也就是 1 億美元。當然，目前我們完成的交易可能只達到了這種水準的三分之一。因此，如果您想扣除，那麼您必須僅因為這個原因就扣除 0.30 美元。當然，我們預計拖車不會從我們所在的位置下來。實際上預計它會持平或上升。所以這大概又是 0.50 美分。因此我認為，從同類比較來看，明年的收入應該會達到 7.5 億美元。

So our business is doing better. We're creating more value and we're still out trying to do deals. So we're not walking away from anything we've said in the past, I think. But right now, we see ourselves being kind of in the middle of it.

所以我們的生意越來越好。我們正在創造更多價值，並且仍在努力達成交易。所以我認為，我們不會放棄我們過去說過的任何話。但現在，我們發現自己正處於其中。

Understood. Very helpful. And as a follow-up, obviously, a bunch of moving parts around sort of NAFTA, whether it's going to be sort of disbanded, certain amendments, whatever the case may be. And at least, as I take a look at your sort of 2016 revenues, call it, 2% of sales from Canada, another 4% for Mexico, just would love to hear your thoughts about any changes in NAFTA or the disbanding of NAFTA. Would that impact you guys at all?

明白了。非常有幫助。作為後續行動，顯然，北美自由貿易協定中存在一系列變動，無論它是否會解散，都會進行某些修正，無論情況如何。至少，當我查看您 2016 年的收入時，可以這麼說，2% 的銷售額來自加拿大，另外 4% 來自墨西哥，我很想聽聽您對北美自由貿易協定的任何變化或解散的看法。這會對你們造成影響嗎？

No. I don't -- we recently talked about that. We don't see any big impact, positive or negative, relative to that. I mean, I think the -- for us, it really gets down to not -- to say it again, it's not how many vehicles are built, it's the fact that vehicles are being modified and upgraded continually. And that's kind of the space that we played. And to that effect, we're showing very strong growth in that business in spite of the fact that business is not growing or shrinking depending on which part of the world that you're in. So whether we build a bit more or less in Mexico doesn't really seem to matter to us or Canada. We don't care where they're built.

不。我不知道——我們最近談論過這個。我們沒有看到與此相關的任何重大影響，無論是正面的還是負面的。我的意思是，我認為——對我們來說，真正的關鍵不在於——再說一遍，問題不在於生產了多少輛汽車，而在於汽車不斷地被改裝和升級。這就是我們所玩的空間。因此，儘管業務在世界任何地方都不會成長或萎縮，但我們的業務仍表現出非常強勁的成長勢頭。因此，我們在墨西哥多建一點還是少建一點，對我們或加拿大來說似乎並不重要。我們不關心它們建造在哪裡。

And that will be from Jim Sheehan of SunTrust.

這是 SunTrust 的 Jim Sheehan 的發言。

You've had a management departure in Acetyl Chain. Who's going to be running that business going forward? What you're thinking on the planning and -- for management there?

Acetyl Chain 的一位管理層離職了。未來誰將負責經營這項業務？您對那裡的規劃和管理有何看法？

A gentleman named Todd Elliott. You know Todd. Todd has run the commercial operations of the corporation for a long time. He's been also running our European operations and he's taken that role.

一位名叫托德·艾利奧特的紳士。你認識托德。托德長期負責該公司的商業營運。他也一直負責我們的歐洲業務並擔任這一職位。

Great. And on the bridge to 2018 EPS, with respect to the tow JV, I think you initially indicated that it would be cost synergies that would be offsetting interest costs for that. And I think, today, you're framing it as interest costs are kind of being offset by the share buyback activity. If you could just reconcile that a little bit. And are you assuming here in midyear close for the JV? Or what would be the timing for -- to make the bridge work?

偉大的。關於 2018 年每股收益，關於拖車合資企業，我認為您最初表示成本協同效應將抵銷利息成本。我認為，今天，您將其定義為利息成本被股票回購活動所抵銷。如果你能稍微調和一下這一點就好了。您是否認為合資公司將在年中結束？或者說，什麼時候才能讓這座橋正常運作？

Yes. Just for planning purposes, we've talked about midyear just to make the math easier to do. We think there will be a little bit of EBIT contribution from that. There'd be no EPS contribution on the annualized basis because the interest costs would be covered by share repurchases. So that's how we are -- so from an EPS point of view and the numbers in this range we're giving you, it's really a nonevent in that. The timing of that is pretty critical, though. And depending on how it happens and how fast we got to market, you could see a little bit of movement around intra-year because of that.

是的。僅出於規劃目的，我們討論了年中情況，以便更容易進行計算。我們認為這將對息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 產生一點貢獻。以年率計算，每股盈餘不會有任何貢獻，因為利息成本將由股票回購支付。這就是我們的情況——從每股收益的角度來看，以及我們給您的這個範圍內的數字來看，這確實不是什麼大事。但時機非常關鍵。根據事情的進展和我們進入市場的速度，您可能會看到年內出現一些波動。

And synergies will eventually offset the cost of interest. It's just that there's a gap in the time.

而綜效最終將抵銷利息成本。只是時間上有差距而已。

That's right. Yes,.

這是正確的。是的，。

And at this time, we will conclude the question-and-answer session.

現在，我們將結束問答環節。

I would like to hand the conference back over to Surabhi Varshney for her closing remarks.

我想將會議交還給 Surabhi Varshney，請她作閉幕發言。

Thanks, Denise.

謝謝，丹尼斯。

We will wrap up the call now. Thank you, everybody, for your questions and for listening in this morning. We will be around if you have any further questions after the call.

我們現在結束通話。謝謝大家的提問和今天早上的聆聽。如果您在通話後還有任何其他問題，我們隨時為您服務。

Denise, please close the call.

丹尼斯，請掛斷電話。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now ended. Thank you for attending today's presentation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。此時，您可以斷開線路。