塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Celanese' Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note that today's event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2017年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）另請注意，今天的活動正在被記錄。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Ms. Surabhi Varshney, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ma'am, please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Surabhi Varshney 女士。女士，請繼續。

Thank you, Jamie. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Surabhi Varshney, Vice President, Investor Relations. With me today are Mark Rohr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Jensen, Chief Financial Officer; Scott Sutton, Chief Operating Officer; and Pat Quarles, President, Acetyl Chain.

謝謝你，傑米。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2017 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Surabhi Varshney，投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起的有董事長兼首席執行官馬克·羅爾 (Mark Rohr)、首席財務官克里斯·詹森 (Chris Jensen)、首席營運官斯科特·薩頓 (Scott Sutton) 和 Acetyl Chain 總裁帕特·誇爾斯 (Pat Quarles)。

Celanese Corporation's second quarter 2017 earnings release was distributed via Business Wire yesterday after market close. The slides for the call and our prepared comments for the quarter were also posted on our website, www.celanese.com, in the Investor Relations section.

塞拉尼斯公司 2017 年第二季財報於昨日收盤後透過 Business Wire 發布。電話會議的幻燈片和我們為本季準備的評論也發佈在我們的網站 www.celanese.com 的投資者關係部分。

As a reminder, some of the matters discussed today and included in our presentations may include forward-looking statements concerning, for example, Celanese Corporation's future objectives and results. Please note the cautionary language contained in the posted slides. Also, some of the matters discussed and presented include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Explanations of these non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures are included with the press release and on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financial Information. The earnings release and non-GAAP reconciliations have been submitted to the SEC on a Form 8-K. The slides and prepared comments have also been submitted to the SEC on a separate Form 8-K.

提醒一下，今天討論的以及我們簡報中包含的一些事項可能包括前瞻性陳述，例如有關塞拉尼斯公司未來目標和業績的陳述。請注意所張貼幻燈片中的警告性語言。此外，討論和提出的一些事項還包括對非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。這些非 GAAP 指標的解釋以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳均包含在新聞稿中以及我們網站的「財務資訊」下的「投資者關係」部分。收益報告和非公認會計準則對帳單已以 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。幻燈片和準備好的評論也已透過單獨的 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

This morning, we'll begin with introductory comments from Mark Rohr, and then open up for your questions.

今天上午，我們將先由馬克‧羅爾 (Mark Rohr) 作介紹性評論，然後回答大家的提問。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mark.

現在我想把電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Surabhi, and welcome, everyone listening in today. We posted our prepared remarks along with earnings yesterday, so I'll limit my comments and then open the line for questions.

謝謝 Surabhi，歡迎今天收聽節目的各位。我們昨天已經發布了準備好的評論以及收益報告，因此我將限制我的評論，然後開放提問熱線。

First, a few performance highlights. We successfully completed the Clear Lake, Texas site turnaround to repair and upgrade unit operations on time, on budget and injury free. We also made significant progress to SO. F.TER. and NILIT integrations and announced an agreement with Blackstone to form a new European-based cellulose acetate company to better support global customers and technology.

首先，介紹幾個業績亮點。我們成功完成了德州克利爾萊克現場的檢修，按時、按預算、無傷害地修復和升級了設備運作。我們還在 SO 方面取得了重大進展。F.TER。和 NILIT 整合，並宣布與黑石集團達成協議，成立一家新的歐洲醋酸纖維素公司，以更好地支援全球客戶和技術。

In the second quarter, we recorded GAAP earnings of $1.72 per share and adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share, both second quarter records. In the quarter, we returned $237 million of cash to investors with $170 million in share repurchases. By the end of 2017, we expect to have completed $500 million worth of share repurchases, and as you've probably seen, we've just announced a new share repurchase authorization of $1.5 billion.

第二季度，我們的 GAAP 收益為每股 1.72 美元，調整後收益為每股 1.79 美元，均創下第二季最高紀錄。本季度，我們透過 1.7 億美元的股票回購向投資者返還了 2.37 億美元現金。到 2017 年底，我們預計將完成價值 5 億美元的股票回購，而且正如您可能已經看到的，我們剛剛宣布了 15 億美元的新股票回購授權。

The Acetyl Chain income came in at $132 million. That's 19% higher year-over-year, driven by commercial agility and production flexibility. Products locks in rigorous supply chain planning around Celanese to participate in the market and overcome production limitations at Clear Lake as well as industry supply constraints. Income margin for the Acetyls Chain was 16% driven by pricing improvements.

乙醯鏈收入達 1.32 億美元。這比去年同期成長了 19%，這得益於商業敏捷性和生產彈性。產品鎖定圍繞塞拉尼斯的嚴格供應鏈規劃，以參與市場並克服 Clear Lake 的生產限制以及行業供應限制。受價格上漲的推動，乙醯基產品鏈的營收利潤率為 16%。

Materials Solutions increased net sales to a record $79 million in the second quarter as rapid growth in Advanced Engineered Materials outpaced the decline in acetate tow volume and price. AEM reported its second highest-ever segment income of $142 million, 28% higher than the same quarter last year. Volume increased double digits year-over-year, driven by SO. F.TER. and NILIT, organic growth in greater penetration in China. As expected, segment income margin for AEM was 290 basis points lower year-over-year with the integration of recent acquisitions and growth in Asia. The team closed a record of 547 projects in the quarter, allowing us to increase the target for projects closed in 2017 by 5% to roughly 2,000.

由於先進工程材料業務的快速成長超過了醋酸纖維絲束產量和價格的下降，材料解決方案部門第二季的淨銷售額增至創紀錄的 7,900 萬美元。AEM 公佈其有史以來第二高的分部收入，達到 1.42 億美元，比去年同期高出 28%。在 SO 的推動下，銷量較去年同期成長了兩位數。F.TER。NILIT 在中國市場實現了更大滲透率的有機成長。正如預期的那樣，由於近期收購和亞洲成長的影響，AEM 的分部營收利潤率較去年同期下降了 290 個基點。該團隊在本季度完成了創紀錄的 547 個項目，這使得我們將 2017 年完成的項目目標提高了 5%，達到約 2,000 個。

In Consumer Specialties, segment income in the second quarter was $79 million, in line with our previous guidance. Price and volume were lower year-over-year, driven by reduced industry utilization rates. We expect earnings for the third and fourth quarter of 2017 to be around the second quarter level and believe 2018 results will be in line with 2017. For the rest of 2017, there are a number of efforts underway to utilize our unique commercial models and leverage our operating flexibility. Record numbers of projects, commercializations and strategies to take advantage of raw material volatility will extend the second quarter's success throughout the year. We are, therefore, increasing our expectations for adjusted earnings per share growth to be in the 9% to 11% range for 2017.

在消費品特種業務方面，第二季部門收入為 7,900 萬美元，與我們先前的預期一致。由於產業利用率下降，價格和銷量較去年同期下降。我們預計 2017 年第三季和第四季的獲利將與第二季的水平持平，並相信 2018 年的業績將與 2017 年持平。2017 年剩餘時間，我們將採取多項措施，充分利用我們獨特的商業模式和營運彈性。創紀錄數量的項目、商業化和利用原材料波動的策略將使第二季度的成功延續到全年。因此，我們上調了對 2017 年調整後每股盈餘成長的預期，使其達到 9% 至 11% 之間。

Thank you, Mark. (Operator Instructions) Jamie, please open the line for Q&A.

謝謝你，馬克。（操作員指示）傑米，請開通問答專線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Robert Koort from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特·庫爾特。

Maybe this will be for Pat. But trying to get some better sense of -- exactly -- Mark, you so eloquently talked about commercial agility production and flexibility. Can you give us some more specifics on what the heck you did in acetic given that (inaudible) volatility in pricing in raws there? And then, how should we think about that business in the second half? I know earlier in the year, you had talked about a nice uptick in the second half. Is that still something we can expect in acetic?

也許這是給帕特的。但試著更好地理解——確切地說——馬克，你如此雄辯地談論了商業敏捷性生產和靈活性。考慮到那裡原料價格的波動（聽不清楚），您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您在醋酸方面做了什麼？那麼，我們該如何看待下半年的業務呢？我知道今年早些時候您曾談到下半年會出現良好的成長。我們在醋酸中還能期待這種東西嗎？

Let me -- I'll take the last question, and then, Pat's here so it's probably better if Pat answers your first, Bob. But yes, we're seeing trends to -- that we had hoped to see that gives us some comfort that we're going to be moving this business up in the third quarter. So yes, I think that broad trend that we had reflected earlier in the year is there, and that's why we reaffirmed and also upped our guidance just a little bit. But Pat, do you want to talk about the commercial agility?

讓我——我將回答最後一個問題，然後，帕特在這裡，所以如果帕特回答你的第一個問題可能會更好，鮑勃。但是的，我們看到了我們希望看到的趨勢，這讓我們感到欣慰，我們將在第三季推動這項業務的發展。所以是的，我認為我們在今年早些時候反映的廣泛趨勢是存在的，這就是我們重申並略微提高指導的原因。但是帕特，你想談談商業敏捷性嗎？

Sure. If you think about our priorities as we entered the second quarter, there are a few things in front of us. Our turnaround priority #1 is don't let anybody get hurt as they come onto our site. We had over 100,000 new contractors on the site to help us complete that maintenance work, and we're very proud of the men and women down in Clear Lake who were able to send those guys back home everyday safely throughout the whole turnaround. That's a great accomplishment. And of course, secondly, to meet the commitments we've made to our customers as the leader in acetyls business globally, and we're able to accomplish that despite the turnaround by a variety of sourcing arrangements and moving of molecules around our systems. So Mark mentioned swaps, so we had agreements with coproducers to provide us some products. We actually even uneconomically had to move product out of China and out of Singapore to meet our commitments in the West. So one of the reasons we talked about this $30 million impact in the second quarter is related to that commitment to meet our customers' needs and we were able to get through that without incident. So that really is what sets us up for the improvement as we go in the third quarter because we just won't -- not only will we not have work going on in Clear Lake, we won't have the inefficiencies of the need to move those molecules around to meet market requirements.

當然。如果你思考我們進入第二季時的優先事項，你會發現我們面前有幾件事。我們的首要任務是不要讓任何人在進入我們的站點時受到傷害。我們在現場有超過 10 萬名新承包商來幫助我們完成維護工作，我們為 Clear Lake 的男女感到非常自豪，他們能夠在整個轉變過程中每天都安全地將那些人送回家。這是一個偉大的成就。當然，其次，作為全球乙醯基業務的領導者，我們要履行對客戶的承諾，儘管我們透過各種採購安排和系統內的分子移動實現了轉變，但我們仍然能夠實現這一目標。馬克提到了交換，所以我們與聯合製作人達成協議，讓他們為我們提供一些產品。事實上，為了履行我們在西方的承諾，我們甚至不得不不經濟地將產品移出中國和新加坡。因此，我們談論第二季 3000 萬美元影響的原因之一與我們滿足客戶需求的承諾有關，並且我們能夠順利完成這項承諾。所以這確實為我們在第三季的改進奠定了基礎，因為我們不僅不會在 Clear Lake 開展工作，也不會因為需要移動這些分子來滿足市場需求而產生低效率。

And Chris, could you tell us what the tax assumption is for second half earnings?

克里斯，您能告訴我們下半年收益的稅務假設是什麼嗎？

Yes. Right now, we're assuming it will be the same as what we're using today, which -- the way we do quarters, it's the rate used in the quarter is the rate you expect for the year.

是的。現在，我們假設它與我們今天使用的利率相同，即我們計算季度利率的方式，即該季度使用的利率就是您預期的年度利率。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch from Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國證券公司的弗蘭克米奇 (Frank Mitsch)。

So just to be clear, so following these results of $106 million in AI in Q2, you're expecting continued improvement in Q3. Is that correct off of that number?

所以需要明確的是，根據第二季人工智慧領域 1.06 億美元的成果，您預計第三季將繼續改善。這個數字正確嗎？

You got it, Frank.

你明白了，弗蘭克。

And I thought I read -- this is last night, I thought I read that you thought the net negative impact of the Clear Lake turnaround was close to $30 million. Is that right?

我想我讀到了——這是昨晚，我想我讀到過，您認為 Clear Lake 轉型帶來的淨負面影響接近 3000 萬美元。是嗎？

Yes, that's right. I mean, the direct is $15 million and indirect, as Pat talked about the inefficiencies in our system, you can -- and some of that, it's hard to net-net it exactly, but so you'd call it another $15 million for that.

是的，沒錯。我的意思是，直接支出是 1500 萬美元，間接支出，正如帕特談到我們系統中的低效率一樣，你可以 - 其中一些，很難準確地計算淨額，但你可以稱之為另外 1500 萬美元。

All right. So that result in Q2 was constrained by that amount. All right, terrific. And obviously, AEM, nice result there. On the -- how would you compare and contrast the organic growth of Celanese relative to the M&A you did? What's the growth been like if you can parse it out between those 2?

好的。因此第二季的結果受到了該金額的限制。好的，太棒了。顯然，AEM 取得了不錯的成績。您如何比較和對比塞拉尼斯的有機成長與您所做的併購？如果您能分析一下這兩者之間的區別，那麼成長情況是怎樣的？

Scott, would you mind jumping in on that?

史考特，你介意加入這個話題嗎？

Yes, sure, Frank. If you think about what we did in Q2, I mean, pretty broad performance lift. M&A contributed. Organic growth contributed. Organic growth still contributed much more than M&A, certainly even more than our affiliates did. So if I had to break it out to give you just a good view of it and you look at the organic volume growth, again, Q2 '17 versus Q2 '16 was about 10% organic volume growth.

是的，當然，弗蘭克。如果您想想我們在第二季所做的事情，我的意思是，業績提升相當大。併購有所貢獻。有機成長有所貢獻。有機成長的貢獻仍然遠大於併購，甚至肯定比我們的附屬公司還要大。因此，如果我必須將其分解開來以便讓您清楚地了解它，並且您可以再次查看有機銷量增長，那麼 2017 年第二季度與 2016 年第二季度相比，有機銷量增長約為 10%。

Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

You guys have done a great job in the AEM business, it's become an envy in the chemical industry. So what drives this success? Can you talk about your $75 million of R&D, corporate R&D? How much of that goes into this division? And how much of that goes towards new products versus, say, application R&D?

你們在 AEM 業務上做得非常出色，它已經成為化學產業令人羨慕的對象。那麼，是什麼推動了這項成功呢？您能談談您投入的 7,500 萬美元的研發經費和企業研發資金嗎？其中有多少進入該部門？其中有多少用於新產品，有多少用於應用研發？

P.J., this is Mark. Let me back up and just talk about success at a high level for just a minute, and Scott probably would want to weight on in this as well. What I would say we've done extremely well is we've really married technology and commerce with our customers. So we look at that having sort of multiple people in that box that are making decisions on a real-time basis, what we pursue. And we have a lot of flexibility within our technology and sales groups to make sure that we're putting all the resources of the company behind delivering on those things we say we're going to do, P.J. So imagine the full force and weight of Celanese whenever we commit to a new project, A, B, or C for Ford or whoever we're working with, then we get it done right now. And so I think that's the power, the inherent power of the model. From a technology point of view, most of our technology goes into in the AEM, most of the spending is for that, and it's largely developmental spending. So I think if you use the industry standards of 85-15 or 90-10, there's a small portion that's going in futuristic work, but most of it is addressing contemporary things before us. Scott, do you want to add something to that or...

P.J.，這是馬克。讓我回顧一下，只花一分鐘談論高水準的成功，史考特可能也想在這一點上多加強調。我想說我們做得非常好的是，我們真正地將技術和商業與我們的客戶結合在一起。因此，我們認為這個盒子裡有多個人在即時地做出決定，決定我們所追求的目標。我們的技術和銷售團隊擁有很大的靈活性，以確保我們將公司的所有資源都用於實現我們承諾要做的事情，P.J. 因此，想像一下塞拉尼斯的全部力量和分量，每當我們承諾為福特或與我們合作的任何公司開展新項目 A、B 或 C 時，我們都會立即完成它。所以我認為這就是該模型的力量、固有的力量。從技術角度來看，我們的大部分技術都投入了 AEM 中，大部分支出也用於此，而且大部分是開發支出。因此我認為，如果使用 85-15 或 90-10 的行業標準，那麼一小部分將用於未來主義工作，但大部分都在解決我們面前的當代事物。史考特，你想補充一點什麼嗎？或者…

Yes, Mark, I mean, the only thing I would add, all that, perfectly correct. I would just say that, P.J., our go-to-market strategy is quite differentiated, and we're really able to drag a lot of complexity out of customers and handle all these projects and find solutions that they might not otherwise be able to find and certainly can't find from a single supplier. And we move that complexity to our side of the house and manage it well, and that really is the competitive advantage.

是的，馬克，我的意思是，我唯一想補充的是，所有這些都完全正確。我只想說，P.J.，我們的市場進入策略非常獨特，我們確實能夠為客戶解決很多複雜問題，處理所有這些項目，並找到他們可能無法找到的解決方案，當然也無法從單一供應商那裡找到。我們將這種複雜性轉移到我們這邊並妥善管理，這才是真正的競爭優勢。

And after acetate tow goes into this JV with Blackstone, what is the long-term future of the Acetyls Immediate business, Mark? And would you be looking to do a similar tax-efficient deal in the future if an opportunity comes?

馬克，醋酸絲束與黑石集團成立合資公司後，乙醯基即時業務的長期前景如何？如果有機會，您是否會考慮在未來達成類似的稅收優惠交易？

Yes, I quite know how to answer your first question. I think when we looking at putting these 2 businesses together, P.J., what we really will have in place is we'll have -- a business that can really focus on the tremendous amount of changes underway in the tow industry, much of which is promoting the use of more sophisticated tow materials or cellulose acetate materials as well as new technology out there to find uses for cellulose acetates, some of which we were pretty excited about. And I think our partners, Blackstone also, have something they are excited about. So the marriage of those things gives us a chance to create truly a sustainable business model. Out of that, we expect that model to continue to contribute earnings to Celanese, and we expect to continue to see high levels of free cash flow generation. And then some time, we think it will be a stand-alone entity that will have all the strength and power that should have a stand-alone entity. Will we do that again? Sure. I mean, I think it's -- we already feel like we have 3 #1 businesses, as we like to say, and if there's a way in the Chain business, we could bring in other assets of businesses and find ways to key it up, to grow at the kind of pace we expect it to grow, we'd absolutely do that.

是的，我知道如何回答你的第一個問題。P.J.，我認為，當我們考慮將這兩家公司合併時，我們真正要做的就是——建立一個能夠真正關注絲束行業正在發生的巨大變化的公司，這些變化大部分是促進使用更複雜的絲束材料或醋酸纖維素材料以及尋找醋酸纖維素用途的新技術，我們對其中一些感到非常興奮。我認為我們的合作夥伴黑石集團也對此感到興奮。因此，這些因素的結合使我們有機會創建真正可持續的商業模式。除此之外，我們預計該模式將繼續為塞拉尼斯貢獻收益，我們預計將繼續看到高水準的自由現金流產生。然後，我們認為某個時候它將成為一個獨立的實體，擁有獨立實體應有的所有力量和權力。我們會再這樣做嗎？當然。我的意思是，我認為——我們已經感覺到我們擁有 3 個第一業務，就像我們喜歡說的那樣，如果在連鎖業務中有辦法，我們可以引入其他業務資產，並找到方法使其關鍵化，以我們預期的速度增長，我們絕對會這樣做。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Two quick questions, one for Scott. Just on that 10% organic growth, the incremental margins on that, is that keeping pace with segment average?

兩個簡單的問題，一個問斯科特。僅憑 10% 的有機成長率，增量利潤率是否與細分市場平均值保持同步？

Yes, Duffy, and it is. I mean, if you boil it down and you take out affiliates and you take out M&A, you would actually find that our margin in Q2 of '17 is a little bit better than our underlying margin in Q2 of '16, so it's absolutely keeping pace.

是的，達菲，確實如此。我的意思是，如果你把它歸結起來，去掉附屬公司和併購，你實際上會發現我們 2017 年第二季度的利潤率比 2016 年第二季度的基本利潤率要好一點，所以它絕對是保持同步的。

Okay. And then, just the second one. On the commodity side of the acetic, how do you guys see the cycle today? I mean, it's been a long time that we've been at a relative trough. Next 3 years, is there a chance that we can start getting some tighter operating rates and actually start to see a cycle in acetic acid?

好的。然後，只剩下第二個了。在醋酸商品方面，你們如何看待今天的週期？我的意思是，我們已經處於相對低谷很長一段時間了。未來 3 年，我們是否有機會開始提高營運率並真正開始看到醋酸的循環？

Now Duffy, you know we don't talk about this business as a commodity business.

現在，達菲，你知道我們不會把這項業務當作商品業務來談論。

There are some commodity parts, probably not yours.

有一些商品零件，可能不是你的。

As I've always said, China -- we know China's structurally oversupplied in such a large way. Though I'm not going to tell you, you're going to have this global tightening. And what we have to do is to manage between the differentiation that we have in our cost structure between the 3 acid units around the world and tie those together in a way in which we can capture value as it presents itself quickly. And that's how we have to do it, Duffy. I'm not going to tell you that demand is going to certainly overcome all the supply coming out of China. It's just not going to unfold that way. We're working hard in China to try and to drive conversations and outcomes that might put the supply side in a more sustainable position. But that also is a complicated process, given the nature of China.

正如我一直所說的那樣，我們知道中國存在嚴重的結構性供應過剩。儘管我不會告訴你，但你將會經歷這種全球緊縮。我們要做的就是管理我們全球 3 個酸部門之間的成本結構差異，並將它們結合在一起，以便我們能夠快速捕捉價值。這就是我們必須要做的，達菲。我不會告訴你需求一定會超過來自中國的所有供應。事情不會照那樣發展。我們在中國努力嘗試推動對話並取得成果，使供應方處於更永續的地位。但考慮到中國的國情，這也是一個複雜的過程。

Our next question comes from David Beigleiter from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Beigleiter。

Mark and Pat, on the same issue, in China, I see you've just announced some price increases earlier, I guess, last week in China. Is that a sign of any underlying strength in the Chinese market? Or maybe you can comment on the reasons for that Chinese price increase in acetyls?

馬克和帕特，關於同一問題，在中國，我看到你們剛剛宣布了一些價格上漲，我想，是上週在中國。這是中國市場潛在實力的展現嗎？或者您能評論一下中國乙醯價格上漲的原因嗎？

Yes, thanks. It's really building up the comment I just made, being quick. There's some interesting things going on inside China today that presented an opportunity for us to drive some value. And on the VAM business, for instance, I talked last quarter about the implication of high ethylene price and our ability to compete versus the carbide suppliers in the first quarter and how we backed away from the market. So that situation didn't reverse as we got into the second quarter. It allowed us to kind of reengage with the market. As we sit today, in addition to that competitiveness, we also see some supply outages. You've got a lot of rain in Central China that's driving difficulty, getting product down the Yangtze and to the coastal markets that's providing an opportunity for us to drive value as well. And as those opportunities present themselves, we'll really jump on it. And I would say, similarly with acid, we're monitoring kind of what the supply dynamics are. And when we see something, we're going to jump on it. It may not last the quarter, it may not last a month, but as it lasts, we're going to go grab it.

是的，謝謝。這確實有助於鞏固我剛才發表的評論，而且速度很快。如今中國國內發生了一些有趣的事情，為我們創造價值提供了機會。例如，在 VAM 業務方面，我上個季度談到了乙烯價格高企的影響以及我們在第一季與碳化物供應商競爭的能力，以及我們如何退出市場。所以當我們進入第二季時，這種情況並沒有逆轉。它讓我們能夠重新融入市場。今天，除了競爭之外，我們還看到一些供應中斷。中國中部地區雨水較多，為產品沿著長江運輸到沿海市場帶來了困難，這也為我們創造價值提供了機會。當這些機會出現時，我們就會抓住它。我想說的是，對於酸，我們也在監測其供應動態。當我們看到某樣東西時，我們就會跳上去。它可能不會持續一個季度，可能不會持續一個月，但只要它持續下去，我們就會抓住它。

Very good. And Scott, just in your business, how do you stand in the dynamic of price versus raws in your business in AEM?

非常好。斯科特，就您的業務而言，您在 AEM 業務中如何看待價格與原材料的動態關係？

David, I mean, we are raising price in some specific areas and having some success at doing that. I mean, if you go back to my earlier comment that there was actually a little bit of margin expansion taking out M&A and affiliates and so forth. But I mean, we're able to do that and we've specifically been successful at raising price in China on some of our larger products.

大衛，我的意思是，我們正在提高一些特定領域的價格，並且取得了一些成功。我的意思是，如果你回顧我之前的評論，你會發現利潤率實際上有一點擴大，包括併購、附屬公司等等。但我的意思是，我們能夠做到這一點，而且我們在中國成功地提高了一些較大產品的價格。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison from KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

In AEM, you talked about margins being lower year-over-year, largely from acquisitions. Was there any squeeze from raw materials? Or were you able to kind of offset those with pricing?

在 AEM，您談到利潤率同比下降，主要原因是收購。原料方面有沒有受到擠壓？或者您能夠透過定價來抵消這些影響？

Yes, and Mike, this is Scott. We do have that margin decline when you throw in of all the M&A that's really what reduced it some. Yes, there's a little bit of margin squeeze going on, but we have been successful at raising price in certain areas, particularly in China, in reference to previous comments. So I mean, we're able to combat that, and that's why you don't see a squeeze in the underlying business.

是的，麥克，這是斯科特。如果考慮到所有的併購，我們的利潤率確實會下降，這才是真正導致利潤率下降的原因。是的，利潤率確實有所縮減，但根據先前的評論，我們已經成功地提高了某些地區的價格，特別是在中國。所以我的意思是，我們有能力應對這種情況，這就是為什麼你不會看到基礎業務受到擠壓。

Okay, great. And then, Mark, just in general, acquisitions for AEM, how is the pipeline? Any particular areas in the plastics world that you see exciting now, going forward? And maybe given the balance sheet position, any opportunities to look at something bigger?

好的，太好了。那麼，馬克，總體而言，AEM 的收購進展如何？您認為塑膠領域目前或未來有哪些領域令人興奮？也許考慮到資產負債表狀況，是否有機會考慮更大的事情？

Let me start in the background. We feel pretty good about the pipeline. I will say that we thought that -- we had a couple of deals we were working that pulled away from us. Again, no reason other than the ownership has elected not to sell. It set us back just a little bit, but we have a number of indicative offers out there now that we're discussing to try to see if we can close on some deals here. So we're working that hard, as we've said. And Mike, we've made a comment that we need to -- that needs be a continuation for us, I think, to continue to expand our business profile and market reach and access, so we can imply our skills to keep this growth going. So we're working hard. We feel pretty good about the pipeline. And I'd really hope to be in a position to announce something, we just can't quite do that now.

讓我從背景開始。我們對這條管道感覺非常良好。我想說的是，我們認為——我們正在進行的幾筆交易都失敗了。再說一遍，除了所有權選擇不出售之外沒有其他原因。這讓我們稍微受了點損失，但我們現在有一些指示性報價，我們正在討論，看看我們是否可以在這裡達成一些交易。正如我們所說的，我們正在努力工作。麥克，我們已經說過，我們需要──我認為這對我們來說需要繼續下去，繼續擴大我們的業務形象、市場範圍和管道，這樣我們才能運用我們的技能來維持這種成長。所以我們正在努力工作。我們對這條管道感覺非常良好。我真的希望能夠宣布一些事情，但我們現在還不能這麼做。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

When you described your acetate tow joint venture with Blackstone, you talked about it being accretive by $0.50 or $0.75 a share a few years down the road. Do those accretion calculations assume that there are no divestitures?

當您描述與黑石集團的醋酸纖維絲束合資企業時，您談到幾年後每股收益將增加 0.50 美元或 0.75 美元。這些增生計算是否假設沒有資產剝離？

Yes, they assume there are no divestitures.

是的，他們認為不存在資產剝離。

Okay. And second, your AI business did really nicely on a sequential basis. Maybe in EBITDA, you're up $23 million. Can you talk about whether that came from Europe or the United States or Asia? And -- or what the weights were sequentially? And was it more a VAM phenomenon or just an acetic acid phenomenon? Can you give us some color?

好的。其次，你們的人工智慧業務連續表現非常好。也許 EBITDA 增加了 2300 萬美元。您能談談它是來自歐洲、美國還是亞洲嗎？而且──或者權重的順序是什麼？這更像是一種 VAM 現象還是只是一種乙酸現象？你能給我們一些顏色嗎？

Well, I'll weight it here just a little bit. Our business predominantly, from a profit value point of view, is on either side of the Atlantic. So you should -- generically speaking, that's where the real value equation is driven, so it's almost always the case. We're seeing the biggest uplift in that area. Pat, you want to comment just broadly, directionally on how you saw that unfold?

好吧，我在這裡稍微強調一下。從利潤價值的角度來看，我們的業務主要在大西洋兩岸。所以你應該——一般來說，這就是真實價值方程式的驅動點，所以幾乎總是如此。我們看到該地區出現了最大的提升。帕特，你想大致、有方向性地評論一下你對這情況的看法嗎？

Sure. Yes, Jeff, I think asset and VAM both went in the right direction, obviously, to get that result, almost equally, globally. Mark's right, of course, we do make most of our money in the West. We did have a change in the circumstance for VAM, specifically, 1Q to 2Q, which I mentioned earlier, right? So we did reenter, and versus the second quarter, we did better in VAM in China than we did the prior quarter. That was a sequential kind of a differential market-driven improvement. Otherwise, I would say you just have that environment because of what we were doing in the market and impacts to the outages that allowed general margin inflation throughout.

當然。是的，傑夫，我認為資產和 VAM 顯然都朝著正確的方向發展，在全球範圍內幾乎平等地獲得了這一結果。馬克是對的，當然，我們的大部分錢確實是在西方賺的。我們的 VAM 情況確實發生了變化，具體來說，就是我之前提到的從第一季到第二季的變化，對嗎？因此我們確實重新進入，與第二季度相比，我們在中國的 VAM 表現比上一季更好。這是一種連續的、由市場驅動的差異化改進。否則，我想說，你之所以擁有這樣的環境，是因為我們在市場上所做的事情以及停電的影響，導致了整體利潤率的膨脹。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Just wanted to follow-up on the discussion about the competitive dynamics in China and the degree to which they're being disciplined or being forced on them by weather-related issues. In the past, you've suggested that there may be an emerging trend of better just competitor disciplined in the region. Are you still seeing that? Or is that reversing?

只是想跟進有關中國競爭動態的討論​​，以及他們因天氣相關問題而受到紀律處分或被迫採取的措施的程度。過去，您曾提出，該地區可能正在出現一種更公平的競爭對手紀律的趨勢。你還看到這個嗎？或者說情況正在逆轉？

I'm not sure I'd characterize it as supplier discipline. I think the conversation we've had before was there are indications that these units that are kind of structurally impaired, to use a technical term, because there's just oversupplied and the challenges we also see in the margins, is leading people to consider options for rationalization or consolidation. But it's just hard to get that done in China, but it's a start, right? And these guys have social obligations beyond just financial that's different than the way we think, and so they have to work these things through. So that's what I was speaking to during the last call. And I'd say, those things still exist, it's just a process. In kind of the here and now, the weather impacts and so forth, is that -- I would say that just is very reflective of the nature of our business, that it hinges on people's ability to continuously run and meet market demand and the changing economics that happen inside China and our ability to manage our system around it to capitalize on that volatility.

我不確定我是否會將其描述為供應商紀律。我認為我們之前的討論是，有跡象表明這些單位在結構上有缺陷，用專業術語來說，因為供應過剩，而且我們在利潤率方面也看到了挑戰，這導致人們考慮合理化或整合的選擇。但在中國做到這一點很難，但這是一個開始，對吧？這些人除了承擔財務責任外，還承擔著與我們的想法不同的社會責任，所以他們必須努力完成這些責任。這就是我上次通話時所說的內容。我想說，那些東西仍然存在，只是一個過程。就目前的情況而言，天氣影響等等——我想說這非常反映了我們業務的性質，它取決於人們持續運營和滿足市場需求的能力、中國內部經濟的變化以及我們管理系統以利用這種波動的能力。

Okay. And then secondly, just on the increased number of projects that you're running, is the average size of the projects, is it shrinking?

好的。其次，隨著您執行的專案數量的增加，專案的平均規模是否在縮小？

Laurence, this is Scott. The average size, really, isn't coming down that much. But what I will say is that with the acquisitions, you do find that they have an initial smaller-sized project going into there. So it's possible that the number comes down for a while, right? But then we get the cross synergies, we pick up other projects, so it's sort of a temporary phenomenon. It's not a major concern.

勞倫斯，這是斯科特。事實上，平均規模並沒有下降那麼多。但我想說的是，透過收購，你確實發現他們最初有一個規模較小的專案正在進入那裡。所以這個數字有可能會暫時下降，對嗎？但隨後我們獲得了交叉協同效應，我們接手了其他項目，所以這是一種暫時現象。這不是什麼大問題。

Our next question comes from John Roberts from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Your implied back half guidance doesn't seem to be all that different from where consensus was at the start of the year in spite of having a pretty good first quarter and second quarter. Are there any key risks that you want to highlight to the second half of the year?

儘管第一季和第二季表現相當不錯，但您隱含的下半年指引似乎與年初的共識並沒有太大不同。您有什麼想強調的下半年主要風險嗎？

Well, I think our guidance is up from what we've been saying. There -- mathematically, John, you're probably right. But we think we're promoting the pushing up of higher guidance and higher earnings in the second half of the year, which is what our original premise was when we rolled this out, as you may recall there. Key risk 2, I think really, when you're pushing this kind of level of earnings, is that the business gets weak in the fourth quarter for some reason, we can't predict. That's -- I mean, that's always a risk when you get in this. But from a trend point of view, that 9% to 11%, we believe, is there and we think, from our point of view, we think that's an improvement, we're trying to signal an improvement in where we were before.

嗯，我認為我們的指導比我們所說的有所提升。從數學角度來說，約翰，你可能是對的。但我們認為，我們正在推動下半年提高指導值和收益，這也是我們推出這項計畫時的最初前提，您可能還記得。關鍵風險 2，我認為，當你推動這種獲利水準時，第四季的業務可能會因某種我們無法預測的原因而變得疲軟。那是——我的意思是，當你陷入這種境地時，總是有風險的。但從趨勢的角度來看，我們認為 9% 到 11% 的增幅是存在的，而且從我們的角度來看，我們認為這是一種進步，我們試圖表明我們之前的水平有所改善。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just a question on consumer specialties. You had a little bit of a downtick there. What's the new outlook for the remainder of the year and next year? Have you found potentially a baseline here?

這只是關於消費者特長的一個問題。你的情況有點低迷。今年剩餘時間和明年的新展望是什麼？您在這裡找到潛在的基線了嗎？

Yes, Arun. We believe where we are now is roughly a baseline. And of course, we went through this, we had advertised that stepdown is going to occur in the same quarter, so you've seen that. We'll continually work to try to tune that up a bit and find ways we can impact those earnings. And we'll need to a little bit to be flat year-over-year, but we expect that run rate that you're seeing now is as good a number as any to run out through this year.

是的，阿倫。我們認為我們現在所處的位置大致上是一個基準。當然，我們經歷過這種情況，我們已經宣布降壓將在同一季度發生，所以你已經看到了這一點。我們將不斷努力嘗試進行一些調整併找到影響這些收益的方法。我們需要稍微與去年同期持平，但我們預計，您現在看到的運行率與今年的任何運行率一樣好。

And then, as a follow-up, I mean, methanol costs potentially could be coming down in the second half. They've already come down a little bit. How does that affect your ability to go out and get price in some of the derivatives? And what gives you confidence that AI will continue to go up in that environment?

然後，作為後續，我的意思是，甲醇成本可能會在下半年下降。它們已經下降了一點。這對您取得某些衍生性商品價格的能力有何影響？是什麼讓您相信人工智慧將在這種環境下繼續發展？

Yes, this is Pat. I think the way to characterize methanol is, is it's going to be volatile and it's very difficult, particularly in the second half of the year, to have a strong outlook in which way it's going. Everybody appreciates, right? We've been talking about MTO coming on stream in China on the coast, buying 3 million to 4 million tons a year of new methanol demand. And that's kind of matched against their ethylene and polyethylene alternatives. And with the wave now coming off the U.S. Gulf Coast, candidly, I think it's just a question mark as to how that plays through in the coming months. One thing we would anticipate is the volatility piece of it. So we have positioned ourselves on both sides of it to be prepared to drive either operationally or price and margin wise to get the best out of that volatility that we can. It can be somewhat interesting to watch these coming months as to how the dynamics play out.

是的，這是帕特。我認為描述甲醇的特點是，它會很不穩定，而且很難對其方向有一個清晰的預測，特別是在下半年。大家都很欣賞，對吧？我們一直在談論中國沿海地區即將投產的MTO項目，該項目每年將滿足300萬至400萬噸的新增甲醇需求。這與乙烯和聚乙烯替代品相當。現在海浪已經從美國墨西哥灣沿岸襲來，坦白說，我認為未來幾個月海浪將如何發展還是一個問號。我們預計的一件事是它的波動性。因此，我們做好了從兩方面入手的準備，無論是在營運方面還是價格和利潤方面，都能夠盡最大努力從波動中獲益。觀察未來幾個月的動態如何發展可能會很有趣。

Our next question comes from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Mark, you talked a bit about the margin erosion on the AEM side of things. And obviously, not surprisingly, this is coming on the back of some of these acquisitions that you've made. My question, basically, is that again, in your prepared remarks, you talked about recovering some of that margin erosion from synergies. So I'm just trying to figure out where we'll end up in terms of run rate margins once those synergies are captured? Should we think mid-30s, high 30s, maybe even back to 40% plus levels?

馬克，您談到了 AEM 方面的利潤率下降。顯然，這並不奇怪，這是在你們進行的一些收購之後實現的。我的問題基本上是，在您準備好的發言中，您再次談到了透過協同效應來恢復部分利潤率的下降。所以我只是想知道，一旦實現這些協同效應，我們的運行率利潤率最終會達到什麼水平？我們是否應該考慮 35% 左右、35% 以上，甚至可能回到 40% 以上的水平？

Well, we've lost several hundred basis points from the dilutive effect of this material coming in the portfolio. We were very open about that process. These companies we're buying have margin levels of roughly half of ours. So our strategy is to, over a period of time, to get those levels up to our existing levels. So you expect, if we didn't do any other acquisitions, for us to push that margin back up over some period of time. If on the other hand, we are continuing to roll in acquisitions like this on an annualized basis, I think you're going to see numbers more like where we are now. In other words, if there's always a dilutive impact on a near-term basis, if we haven't recovered, you won't be able to push it up. So I think somewhere between where we were and where we are today is the long-term average for our company. But near term, it's going to be closer to this level.

嗯，由於這種材料進入投資組合的稀釋效應，我們已經損失了幾百個基點。我們對這一過程非常開放。我們收購的這些公司的利潤水準大約只有我們的一半。因此，我們的策略是在一段時間內將這些水平提高到我們現有的水平。因此，如果我們不進行任何其他收購，你預計我們會在一段時間內將利潤率回升。另一方面，如果我們繼續按年進行這樣的收購，我想你會看到更像現在的數字。換句話說，如果短期內總是存在稀釋效應，如果我們還沒有恢復，你就無法將其推高。所以我認為，我們過去的水平和現在的水平之間的某個點就是我們公司的長期平均水平。但短期內它將更接近這一水平。

Understood, understood. And then, as a follow-up, you talked about, at least in the near term, your expectation for some volatility in methanol pricing. As you look at your portfolio now, I know back in the day, you talked about potentially another methanol plant. But seeing some of this recent volatility, the influx of some of these MTO plants and the like, where do you guys stand now with regards to your global position in methanol? Would you sort of consider another methanol plant, particularly as your cash flow continues to improve?

明白了，明白了。然後，作為後續問題，您談到了至少在短期內對甲醇價格波動的預期。當您現在查看您的投資組合時，我知道您當時曾談論過可能再建造一座甲醇工廠。但看到最近的一些波動、一些 MTO 工廠的湧入等，你們在甲醇領域的全球地位現在如何？您是否會考慮再建造一個甲醇工廠，特別是當您的現金流持續改善的時候？

Well, I think it's not at the top of our list of where we'd like to invest our money today. We like high methanol prices, but we also like methanol volatility. And we think, certainly, the coastal MTO facilities out there have created the element of that volatility. So net-net, that's good for us. So right now, we are not taking a position on that, we're just watching that market and continue to consider it. If there were to be another investment, we will probably be a logical company to do it, but right now, it's not very high on our list.

嗯，我認為它不是我們今天最想投資的地方。我們喜歡甲醇的高價格，但我們也喜歡甲醇的波動性。我們認為，沿海的 MTO 設施確實造成了這種波動因素。所以總的來說，這對我們來說是件好事。因此，目前我們不會對此採取立場，我們只是在觀察市場並繼續考慮它。如果有另一項投資，我們可能是合乎邏輯的選擇，但目前，這在我們的選擇名單上並不是很高。

And our next question comes from Jim Sheehan from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 的 Jim Sheehan。

Can you talk about the process with the JV? you referenced that you're preparing to carve some assets out in preparation for that joint venture and making a contribution to it? How long do you think that process might take? And can you give kind of a ballpark for when you think that deal might close?

能談談合資公司的進程嗎？您提到您正準備為該合資企業剝離一些資產並為其做出貢獻？您認為過程需要多長時間？您能大概說一下這筆交易可能在什麼時候完成嗎？

Well, I think, Jim, we're saying we can't give any specific dates. We're just really getting started in this process. So I think if you'll be a little bit patient, we'll share more of that probably in our October time frame after we're fully in it and have the ability to maybe get a sense of the pace people are working at and things like that. The carveout process is just some of the many things we've got to do to prepare our assets, I mean, to prepare ourselves to actually transfer our assets into the new JV. So that process is a multi-month process, and it will probably take us to the end of this year or next to complete.

嗯，吉姆，我想，我們不能給任何具體的日期。我們才剛開始這一進程。所以我認為如果你能有一點耐心，我們可能會在十月份的時間範圍內分享更多這方面的信息，那時我們完全投入其中，並且能夠了解人們的工作節奏等等。剝離過程只是我們為準備資產而必須做的眾多事情之一，我的意思是，為將我們的資產實際轉移到新的合資企業而做好準備。所以這個過程需要數月的時間，可能要等到今年底或明年才能完成。

Jim, this is Chris. Let me just add to that. When we think carveout in this particular transaction, this is not complicated from a physical asset separation perspective. We're really talking about systems, processes and legal entity and tax structure.

吉姆，這是克里斯。讓我補充一下。當我們考慮這項特定交易中的剝離時，從實體資產分離的角度來看，這並不複雜。我們實際上談論的是系統、流程、法律實體和稅務結構。

Great. And could you give us an update on your thoughts on portfolio management? There's a lot of global assets for sale. Under what circumstances might you consider some transformational M&A? And in the context of that, do you consider the Acetyls Chain core to your business?

偉大的。您能否向我們介紹一下您對投資組合管理的看法？有很多全球資產可供出售。在什麼情況下您可能會考慮一些轉型併購？在此背景下，您是否認為乙醯基鍊是您業務的核心？

I'm sorry, can you ask that question one more time?

抱歉，您能再問一次這個問題嗎？

Sure, Mark. I'm just wondering if you could update us on your thoughts on the portfolio and in terms of whether you would consider larger M&A transformational deals, whether you would consider breaking up the company. Is Acetyl Chain something that you consider to be core? Or would you consider different structures to create shareholder value?

當然，馬克。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您對投資組合的想法，以及您是否會考慮更大規模的併購轉型交易，是否考慮拆分該公司。您認為乙醯鍊是核心嗎？還是您會考慮使用不同的結構來創造股東價值？

Well, like we said all along, I mean, our purpose here is to create shareholder value. So we look at ourselves as being constrained in any way to do that. We've also said we're not going to do anything that's galactically stupid or anything that destroys shareholder value. So if you look at the deal we just did, as a sidebar to that, if Celanese has taken the position to sell that asset, let's say, the net of that probably would've been about the level of this dividend that we received. So we've structured the deal in a way that's going to have tremendous shareholder value creation as a result of it net-net. And you take in what was already arguably one of the best, if not the best, cellulose acetate business in the world, and you're making it even better by combining these 2 great businesses. So that kind of structure, would we do that again and again? Sure, we would. It's not easy to do, but we certainly would. We believe that materials is best-in-class in terms of the solution-based formula that we have. We have more bandwidth on our molecules than anyone else in that space, and we have ways to continue to grow that. Would we like to do a bigger deal in that space? Absolutely, if we could find one that fits. If you look at the Chain business, the Chain business is awesome. At a time where no one can look at the industry metrics and believe you're able to generate this kind of margin off of that business, we continually do it because of nature and the differentiated nature of that business. There are also ways we can expand that. So I think what you have here at Celanese is you have a leadership team that's totally driven to create shareholder value. And we don't feel like we're constrained in any way to do that, but we don't just want to just buy something for the sake of buying it, nor sell something just for the sake of doing it. It's got to be -- it's got to really translate in incremental shareholder value, or we can't do it.

嗯，就像我們一直說的那樣，我們的目的是創造股東價值。因此，我們認為自己無論如何都會受到限制。我們也說過，我們不會做任何愚蠢的事情或任何破壞股東價值的事情。因此，如果你看我們剛剛達成的交易，作為補充說明，如果塞拉尼斯已採取出售該資產的立場，那麼淨額可能就相當於我們收到的股息水平。因此，我們設計的交易結構將為股東創造巨大的淨價值。而且，即使不是世界上最好的醋酸纖維素業務之一，透過合併這兩大業務，你也會讓它變得更好。那麼這種結構，我們會一次又一次地這樣做嗎？當然可以。這並不容易，但我們一定會這麼做。我們相信，就我們擁有的基於解決方案的配方而言，該材料是同類中最好的。我們的分子頻寬比該領域的任何其他人都大，而且我們有辦法繼續擴大這一頻寬。我們想在這個領域做更大的交易嗎？當然，如果我們能找到一個合適的。如果你看一下連鎖業務，你會發現連鎖業務非常棒。在沒有人能夠透過查看行業指標並相信您能夠從該業務中獲得這種利潤的時代，我們由於該業務的性質和差異化性質而不斷這樣做。我們還可以採取一些方法來擴展這一點。所以我認為塞拉尼斯擁有一支全力致力於創造股東價值的領導團隊。我們不覺得自己受到任何限制，但我們不想只是為了買而買，也不想只是為了賣而賣。它必須——它必須真正轉化為股東價值的增量，否則我們就無法做到。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

An even more specific follow-up on this line of question. Mark, you referenced or said last year, I think at a conference, that if you were to separate the business units, it would be, I think, $125 million to $150 million of dis-synergies, specifically from raw materials and logistics. And you went on to say that the tax implications would be more substantial, which I took to mean more than $125 million to $150 million. So could you just update us, are those the right numbers to think about? And what would the tax complexity be, maybe in a range as well?

對此問題進行更具體的跟進。馬克，我想你去年在一次會議上提到或說過，如果你將業務部門分開，我認為會產生 1.25 億至 1.5 億美元的不協同效應，特別是原材料和物流方面的不協同效應。您接著說，稅收影響會更大，我認為這意味著稅收影響將超過 1.25 億至 1.5 億美元。那麼，您能否向我們更新一下情況，這些數字是否值得考慮？稅收的複雜程度是多少？大概在什麼範圍內？

Yes, so we continue to work on pulling those numbers down a bit. But on a gross level, the way I would look at it is it has a negative present value somewhere between $1 billion and $1.4 billion if you look at it from an impacted cash flow kind of basis. And Chris, I don't know if you want to add any more to that?

是的，所以我們會繼續努力將這些數字降低一點。但從整體層面來看，如果從受影響的現金流角度來看，我認為它的現值為負 10 億至 14 億美元之間。克里斯，我不知道您是否想補充更多？

Yes, I would tell you that the number Mark just threw out there and what we've talk about on a run rate basis does include tax impacts. And we've done a lot of work over the last couple of years to actually minimize what those otherwise would be.

是的，我會告訴你，馬克剛剛拋出的數字以及我們在運行率基礎上討論的內容確實包括稅收影響。過去幾年我們做了很多工作來盡量減少這些影響。

Okay. And then Chris, maybe just a follow-up for you. I think your free cash flow guidance, I think before, it was at least $850 million, and now it's, I guess, around $850 million. It looks like CapEx is the same. So is there a working capital issue or cash taxes, or what's causing that?

好的。然後克里斯，也許只是對你的一個後續問題。我認為您的自由現金流指導之前至少是 8.5 億美元，現在我猜大約是 8.5 億美元。看起來 CapEx 是一樣的。那麼是否存在營運資金問題或現金稅，或者是什麼導致了這些問題？

Our intention was not to signal it as any different than where we were last quarter.

我們的意圖並不是表明它與上一季的情況有任何不同。

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov from Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫 (Aleksey Yefremov)。

You provided overall profit guidance for the consumer business. Could you give us some thoughts separately on your outlook for pricing and volume? Do you have any visibility on either one of these components?

您為消費者業務提供了整體利潤指引。您能否分別就價格和銷售的前景談談您的看法？您對其中任何一個組件都有了解嗎？

Yes, in terms of what business, please?

是的，請問是哪方面的業務呢？

Sorry, filter tow business.

抱歉，過濾拖曳業務。

Yes. Well, I mean, look, as Mark said, right, we think that there's a baseline that we sort of hit, and you should see that going forward. So there's likely to be fairly consistent volumes going forward, a little bit of potential price degradation that we're able to offset here going forward as it's really still a competitive industry. But net-net, earnings sort of stabilizing.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，正如馬克所說的那樣，我們認為我們已經達到了一個基線，你應該會看到它向前發展。因此，未來的銷售量可能會保持相當穩定，價格可能會有一點下降，但我們能夠在未來抵消這一下降，因為這仍然是一個競爭激烈的行業。但總體而言，獲利正在趨於穩定。

And a question for Pat on methanol. You mentioned your prior view of tightening methanol market due to MTO project. Why did that tightness not happen? And what is your, I guess, longer-term view? You mentioned also more volatility in the near term. Do you think as we look out the next 12, 24 months, do we still have a tight market or somewhere in the balanced region?

還有一個關於甲醇的問題想問 Pat。您提到了先前認為 MTO 專案會導致甲醇市場收緊的觀點。為什麼沒有出現這種緊張局面？我想，您的長期觀點是什麼？您也提到短期內波動性會加劇。您認為，展望未來 12 至 24 個月，市場是否仍將保持緊張或處於平衡狀態？

Well, I think, based on what we're anticipating, we are absolutely seeing the new demand coming in. I mentioned about 4 million tons in new demand associated with the MTO on the China coast. So that is there structurally. The volatility dynamic now is the choices that they make economically between their ethylene and polyethylene alternatives. So that's why, structurally, I think the market is in a better place than it used to be, and yet, the volatility is going to be the principal driver because you have so much demand now tied to basically the ethylene or C2 chain versus just a straight C1 chain. And that's a new dynamic for this business.

嗯，我認為，根據我們的預期，我們絕對會看到新的需求出現。我提到了中國沿海與MTO相關的約400萬噸新增需求。從結構上來說，這就是存在的。現在的波動動態是他們在乙烯和聚乙烯替代品之間做出的經濟選擇。所以這就是為什麼從結構上來說，我認為市場比以前更好，然而，波動性將成為主要驅動因素，因為現在的需求基本上與乙烯或 C2 鏈相關，而不僅僅是直的 C1 鏈。這對該行業來說是一個新動態。

And our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi from Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

This is actually Mehul Dalia, filling in for Ghansham. In AEM, you're increasing the number of projects for 2017. Is that purely due to the cost pollination from recent acquisitions? Or is there any particular end market that is perhaps doing better from an adoption standpoint than you thought initially?

這實際上是 Mehul Dalia，代替 Ghansham 上場。在 AEM 中，您將增加 2017 年的項目數量。這純粹是由於最近的收購所帶來的成本影響嗎？或者從採用的角度來看，是否有任何特定的終端市場可能比您最初想像的要好？

Yes, sure. I mean -- this is Scott. Look, I mean, it's really not about a specific end market, right? I mean, as an example, Q2, right, we grew business in every single end market. It's more about improving the business model, getting more out of the organic business, continuing to enhance the acquisitions that we made. So it's very broad-based, is the best way I can answer that question.

是的，當然。我的意思是——這是斯科特。你看，我的意思是，這實際上與特定的終端市場無關，對吧？我的意思是，舉個例子，在第二季度，我們在每個終端市場都實現了業務成長。這更多的是為了改善商業模式，從有機業務中獲得更多收益，並繼續加強我們所做的收購。所以它的基礎非常廣泛，這是我能回答這個問題的最佳方式。

And then, in previous calls, you've given some parameters for AEM, acetyls and tow, in terms of EPS contribution year-over-year. Can you give us an updates on that if there's any?

然後，在先前的電話會議中，您給出了 AEM、乙醯基和半乳糖的一些參數，以說明 EPS 的同比貢獻。如果有的話，您能提供我們最新消息嗎？

Yes, so this is Scott again. I mean, we -- it's really not a significant change to the guidance we gave before. But what we will say is that we're operating out on the ends of all those. You see, acetyls are certainly pushing the upper limit at will, Engineered Materials will push the upper limit, right? We're working hard to keep tow within the guidance we gave you before.

是的，我又是史考特。我的意思是，這與我們之前給出的指導相比並沒有太大的變化。但我們要說的是，我們正在努力實現所有這些目標。你看，乙醯基一定會隨意突破上限，工程材料也會突破上限，對嗎？我們正在努力遵循我們之前給您的指導。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

My question relates to Ibn Sina. I think you're in the testing phase there on the incremental POM capacity in the second week of June. Have you transitioned to commercial production? And related to that, would you give us an update on the likely timing of the step-up in your ownership interest to 32.5%, please?

我的問題與伊本西納有關。我認為你們正處於 6 月第二週增量 POM 容量的測試階段。你們已經轉向商業化生產了嗎？與此相關，您能否向我們介紹一下您的所有權權益增加至 32.5% 的可能時間？

Sure, Kevin. So this is Scott. I mean, we've really moved beyond the testing phase. We're in commercial startup now. We've made some material -- it's not fully running at commercial rates, so there's still a little bit more work to do here in the third quarter. While I won't give a specific time on our equity interest step-up, that will be sometime in the period of the fourth quarter, just 2 contractual lag effects that happened. There's still some milestones to go with getting fully in commercial production of POM.

當然，凱文。這就是斯科特。我的意思是，我們確實已經超越了測試階段。我們現在處於商業啟動階段。我們已經製作了一些材料——它還沒有完全按照商業價格運行，所以第三季還有一些工作要做。雖然我不會給出股權增持的具體時間，但那將是第四季度的某個時候，只是發生了 2 個合約滯後效應。要實現 POM 的全面商業化生產，還需要一些里程碑式的進展。

Great. And then, with regard to your AEM segment as a whole, where do you stand on end use market mix, particularly automotive mix, in the wake of your 2 acquisitions? And maybe you could speak more broadly about how you would expect and use market mix as well as geographic mix to evolve over the next year or 2?

偉大的。那麼，就您的整個 AEM 部門而言，在完成兩次收購後，您在最終用途市場組合（尤其是汽車市場組合）方面處於什麼位置？也許您可以更廣泛地談談您預期以及如何在未來一兩年內發展市場組合以及地理組合？

So this is Scott, right, I'll start with the geographic question first. I mean, we're growing Asia much more rapidly than we're growing the Americas and Europe, though the Americas and Europe are both growing. So one day, that's going to mix out sort of 1/3-1/3-1/3. It's not quite there yet. In terms of market segment, I mean, auto is still our largest market segment. But as we said before, it's come down quite a lot. I mean, you can think of it in the range of 1/3 or just over. There are other segments that are growing more rapidly for us. We're growing in every single segment. But if you look at energy storage, consumer products and, particularly, medical, that's where we're seeing some of the higher growth rates.

我是斯科特，對，我先從地理問題開始。我的意思是，亞洲的成長速度比美洲和歐洲的成長速度快得多，儘管美洲和歐洲都在成長。所以有一天，這個比例會混合成 1/3-1/3-1/3。但目前還沒有完全實現。就細分市場而言，汽車仍然是我們最大的細分市場。但正如我們之前所說，它已經下降了很多。我的意思是，你可以認為它在 1/3 或略高於的範圍內。對我們來說，其他領域的成長也更快。我們在每個領域都在成長。但如果你看一下能源儲存、消費品，尤其是在醫療領域，我們會發現它們的成長率較高。

And building on that, if you look at -- just to build a bit on that, if you look at auto, you're seeing numbers as low as quarter-to-quarter, 10% drop in Germany, and yet, we're still seeing our volume holds go up in those cases. So we don't look at it as markets as much as we do applications and technology. That's how we approach this.

在此基礎上，如果你看一下——稍微看一下，如果你看一下汽車行業，你會看到德國汽車銷量環比下降了 10%，然而，在這種情況下，我們的銷量仍然在上升。因此，我們並不將其視為市場，而是將其視為應用和技術。這就是我們處理這個問題的方式。

And ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no additional questions. I'd like to turn the conference call back over to Ms. Varshney for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我沒有其他問題。我想將電話會議交還給 Varshney 女士，請她做最後發言。

Thank you, Jamie, and thanks, everybody, for your questions and for listening in this morning. We will be around if you have any further questions after the call. Jamie, I'll turn the call back to you now.

謝謝你，傑米，也謝謝大家的提問和今天早上的聆聽。如果您在通話後還有任何其他問題，我們隨時為您服務。傑米，我現在把電話轉給你。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we will conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議就到此結束。我們非常感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路了。