塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Celanese First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2017 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Surabhi Varshney, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Surabhi Varshney。請繼續。

Thank you, Anita. Good morning, and welcome to the Celanese Corporation First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Surabhi Varshney, Vice President, Investor Relations. With me today are Mark Rohr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Jensen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Scott Sutton, Chief Operating Officer; and Pat Quarles, Executive Vice President and President, Acetyl Chain.

謝謝你，安妮塔。早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2017 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Surabhi Varshney，投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起的有董事長兼首席執行官馬克·羅爾 (Mark Rohr)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·詹森 (Chris Jensen)、首席營運官斯科特·薩頓 (Scott Sutton) 和 Acetyl Chain 執行副總裁兼總裁帕特·誇爾斯 (Pat Quarles)。

Celanese Corporation's first quarter 2017 earnings release was distributed via Business Wire yesterday after market close. The slides for the call and our prepared comments for the quarter were also posted on our website, www.celanese.com, in the Investor Relations section.

塞拉尼斯公司 2017 年第一季財報於昨日收盤後透過 Business Wire 發布。電話會議的幻燈片和我們為本季準備的評論也發佈在我們的網站 www.celanese.com 的投資者關係部分。

As a reminder, some of the matters discussed today and included in our presentation may include forward-looking statements concerning, for example, Celanese Corporation's future objectives and results. Please note the cautionary language contained in the posted slides.

提醒一下，今天討論的以及我們簡報中包含的一些事項可能包括前瞻性陳述，例如有關塞拉尼斯公司未來目標和業績的陳述。請注意所張貼幻燈片中的警告性語言。

Also, some of the matters discussed and presented include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Explanations of these measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures are included in the press release and on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financial Information. The earnings release and non-GAAP reconciliations have been submitted to the SEC on a Form 8-K. The slides and prepared comments have also been submitted to the SEC on a separate Form 8-K.

此外，討論和提出的一些事項還包括對非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。這些指標的解釋以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳均包含在新聞稿和我們網站的「財務資訊」下的「投資者關係」部分。收益報告和非公認會計準則對帳單已以 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。幻燈片和準備好的評論也已透過單獨的 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

This morning, we'll begin with introductory comments from Mark Rohr and then open up for your questions. I'd like to turn the call over to Mark now.

今天上午，我們將先由馬克‧羅爾 (Mark Rohr) 作介紹性評論，然後回答大家的提問。我現在想把電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Surabhi, and welcome to everyone listening in today. Our prepared comments were released with earnings yesterday, so I'll limit my comments then open the line for your questions.

謝謝你，蘇拉比，歡迎今天收聽的各位。我們的準備好的評論已於昨天隨收益發布，因此我將限制我的評論，然後開放熱線回答您的問題。

In the first quarter of 2017, we generated GAAP earnings of $1.30 per share and the second-highest ever adjusted earnings of $1.81 per share. In the Acetyl Chain, raw material prices were sharply higher sequentially and the Chain business responded well by driving price increases globally. We remain aggressive in our commercial approach and selective in when and where we place our acetyl molecules. This has allowed us to expand core income margins every month this quarter, up 200 basis point sequentially to 13.6% overall. For the first quarter, the Acetyl Chain generated core income of $108 million.

2017 年第一季度，我們的 GAAP 收益為每股 1.30 美元，調整後收益為每股 1.81 美元，為歷史第二高。在乙醯基鏈領域，原物料價格連續大幅上漲，而鏈業務做出了良好反應，推動了全球價格上漲。我們在商業方法上保持積極性，並選擇性地選擇放置乙醯分子的時間和位置。這使得我們本季核心營收利潤率每個月都有所擴大，季增 200 個基點，整體達到 13.6%。第一季度，乙醯基鏈的核心收入為 1.08 億美元。

Materials Solutions had another record quarter generating core income of $243 million. Advanced Engineered Materials segment income of $143 million was an all-time high and growing [ph] 35% sequentially driven by double-digit organic growth and contributions from the SO. F.TER. acquisition. We also closed 513 projects in the quarter, which puts us well on track to achieve our target of 1,900 projects for the year. The SO. F.TER. integration is progressing well and we expect to close a previously announced NILIT Plastics acquisition in May.

材料解決方案部門再創季度紀錄，核心收入達 2.43 億美元。先進工程材料部門收入達 1.43 億美元，創歷史新高，環比增​​長 35%，這得益於兩位數的有機增長和 SO 的貢獻。F.TER。獲得。我們還在本季完成了 513 個項目，這使我們有望實現全年 1,900 個項目的目標。所以。F.TER。整合進展順利，我們預計將於 5 月完成之前宣布的 NILIT Plastics 收購。

Consumer Specialties segment income in the quarter was $100 million, with 46% segment income margin. Total volume increased sequentially due to unique carryovers from 2016 as we transition contracts, but was offset by decline in pricing due to lower industry utilization rates previously discussed. We continue to expect 2017 earnings from Consumer Specialties to reset at $0.40 per share lower than 2016 and stabilize from there. During the quarter, we invested $128 million to repurchase shares and, along with dividends, we returned $179 million to our shareholders. I also want to congratulate our team this quarter for the results and their tireless efforts in support of customers and shareholders.

本季消費品特種部門營收為 1 億美元，部門營收利潤率為 46%。由於我們轉換合同，2016 年的獨特結轉導致總銷量環比增加，但由於之前討論過的行業利用率較低導致價格下降，抵消了這一增長。我們繼續預期 2017 年消費品特種業務的每股盈餘將低於 2016 年的 0.40 美元，並從此保持穩定。本季度，我們投資 1.28 億美元回購股票，並連同股息一起向股東返還 1.79 億美元。我還要祝賀我們團隊本季的成果以及他們為支持客戶和股東所做的不懈努力。

Looking forward to the rest of the year, Advanced Engineered Materials will contribute meaningfully to sales and earnings in 2017 through growth from new project commercialization and emerging benefits of SO. F.TER. and NILIT integrations. The Acetyl Chain is strategically positioned to take advantage of the evolving industry and raw material environments and it'll also advance growth. While total headwinds muted industrial demand and certainly raw materials were a challenge, we're off to a very good start for the year and we expect earnings per share growth of 8% to 11% this year, with the second half about $0.20 higher than the first.

展望今年剩餘時間，先進工程材料將透過新專案商業化和 SO 的新興優勢為 2017 年的銷售和收益做出重大貢獻。F.TER。和 NILIT 整合。乙醯基鏈的策略定位是利用不斷發展的產業和原材料環境，並促進成長。儘管整體不利因素抑制了工業需求，而且原材料肯定是一個挑戰，但我們今年的開局非常好，我們預計今年每股收益將增長 8% 至 11%，下半年將比上半年高出約 0.20 美元。

Thank you, Mark. (Operator Instructions) Anita, let's go ahead and get started with the Q&A please.

謝謝你，馬克。（操作員指示）安妮塔，我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Two quick ones. How much of a drag was VAM year-over-year? And do you expect the lost volumes or the volumes that you sacrificed to come back in the back half of the year or in 2018? And then, on acetate tow, can you speak to your relative leverage to regular cigarettes versus heat-not-burn cigarettes and what that -- what those products might have as an impact?

兩個簡單的。與去年同期相比，VAM 的拖累有多大？您是否預期損失的交易量或犧牲的交易量會在下半年或 2018 年恢復？然後，關於醋酸絲束，您能否談談您相對於普通香煙和加熱不燃燒香煙的相對優勢，以及這些產品可能產生的影響？

Yes. So I'll start, maybe have Pat, who's here, make a few comments on VAM. But if you look at the wall quarter-to-quarter, the VAM impact was pretty material for us fourth quarter into first quarter and probably half of the downside we saw on a margin basis. So when I think through that, the other half being TSO and some other things that are going on, so VAM was pretty material impact. Pat, you want to comment maybe on a forward look of -- for VAM?

是的。因此，我首先請這裡的 Pat 對 VAM 發表一些評論。但如果你看一下季度數據，你會發現，從第四季度到第一季度，VAM 對我們影響相當大，可能占到我們利潤率下行幅度的一半。因此，當我考慮到這一點時，另一半是 TSO 和其他一些正在發生的事情，因此 VAM 的影響相當重大。帕特，你想對 VAM 的前景發表一下評論嗎？

Yes, sure. Laurence, this is Pat Quarles. Yes, Mark's right. I mean, fairly material versus last year. If you think about what happened to us in China with the extraordinarily strong ethylene, which were based on per gram process versus carbide producers more tied to coal, we had very strong ethylene in the first quarter. Put us in a situation where we'd rather just not participate in the market in China during that period and take a little pressure off of other people's drive to export, which we think benefits us in the rest of the world. So that was really what drove our decision making in the first quarter. As we get into the second quarter, ethylene remains high in China. That dynamic really hasn't changed. What's changing, of course, is just overall utilization of the system because the multitude of outages that we and others are having in the market. And we're actively meeting customer demand, both through our Western Hemisphere assets as well as actually bringing molecules in from China to meet those commitments we have elsewhere.

是的，當然。勞倫斯，這是帕特·誇爾斯。是的，馬克是對的。我的意思是，與去年相比，相當重要。如果您想想我們在中國的情況，我們擁有異常強勁的乙烯，這些乙烯是基於每克製程的，而碳化物生產商則更多地依賴煤炭，因此我們在第一季擁有非常強勁的乙烯。讓我們處於這樣一種境地：我們寧願在那段時間不參與中國市場，以減輕其他人出口的壓力，我們認為這對我們在世界其他地區有利。所以這確實是我們第一季做出決策的因素。進入第二季度，中國乙烯價格仍維持高位。這種動態確實沒有改變。當然，改變的只是系統的整體利用率，因為我們和其他人都在市場上遇到大量中斷。我們正在積極滿足客戶需求，既透過我們西半球的資產，也從中國引進分子來履行我們在其他地方的承諾。

And Laurence, your other question, if I understood, was really around e-cigarettes and maybe smokeless tobacco and the trends there? Is that what -- is that your question?

勞倫斯，如果我理解得沒錯的話，你的另一個問題實際上是關於電子煙和無菸煙草及其趨勢的嗎？這就是──這是你的問題嗎？

Exactly, more on the smokeless tobacco side. I think e-cigarettes have been flogged almost to death.

確實，更多是偏向無菸菸草。我認為電子煙已經被炒得差不多了。

So I'll ask Scott Sutton, if he'll take a shot at that.

所以我會問斯科特·薩頓，他是否願意嘗試。

Yes, Laurence. Look, I mean, the reality is today is that a small part of our tow business actually goes into heat-not-burn devices. It's something on the order of 1%. Most of our business goes into traditional cigarettes and super slim cigarettes. However, what's going into heat-not-burn is growing very quickly. And on top of that, we have quite a number of projects in our Engineered Materials pipeline for thermoplastics to go into those heat-not-burn devices.

是的，勞倫斯。你看，我的意思是，今天的現實情況是，我們的拖車業務的一小部分實際上是用於加熱不燃燒設備。大約是 1% 左右。我們的大部分業務是傳統香煙和超細香煙。然而，加熱不燃燒技術的發展非常迅速。除此之外，我們的工程材料管道中還有相當多的項目，用於將熱塑性塑膠用於加熱不燃燒設備。

Our next question comes from Robert Koort of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特·庫爾特。

For Mark or maybe Pat, you guys had mentioned previously an acceleration in AI profits in the second half. I'm wondering if you can help us, if that cadence still holds and what causes the uplift in the second half?

對於馬克或帕特，你們之前曾提到下半年人工智慧利潤將會加速成長。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們，如果這種節奏仍然保持，以及是什麼導致了下半年的提升？

Yes. We do -- we're seeing profits accelerating now as we go through in this raw material inflation that's going on, really, driven by China, but around the world. So we're expecting that to continue as we go through the year. Pat, you want to maybe (inaudible)?

是的。我們確實看到利潤正在加速成長，因為我們經歷了這場由中國推動、但又在世界各地發生的原物料通膨。因此，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。帕特，你可能想要（聽不清楚）？

Yes, sure. Yes. So as you think through kind of market dynamics, you heard me say before, right, a variety of outages going on. We're in the middle of that, we and others. That is actually continue throughout the second quarter and into the third quarter. So our expectation is, from our businesses' results, we'll see margin expansion as we're currently seeing in the second quarter. But we're constrained on supply, right, because our Clear Lake unit is out for a period of time. And as that returns in the third quarter, we expect to still have pretty good market dynamics and we'll get the benefit of volume contribution in the back half of the year, and that's what gives us that profile, Bob.

是的，當然。是的。因此，當您思考某種市場動態時，您之前聽我說過，各種各樣的停電事件正在發生。我們和其他人都處於其中。這種狀況實際上將持續整個第二季和第三季。因此，從我們業務的業績來看，我們的預期是利潤率將擴大，就像我們目前在第二季度看到的那樣。但是我們的供應受到限制，因為我們的 Clear Lake 裝置已經停產了一段時間。隨著第三季的恢復，我們預計市場動態仍然會很好，而且我們將在今年下半年獲得銷售貢獻的好處，這就是我們擁有這樣的形象的原因，鮑伯。

Is there anything -- for Scott, is there anything specific to the SO. F.TER. earnings stream this quarter that depressed the margins so substantially? Or is that something we should expect at a similar level going forward?

有沒有什麼——對於 Scott 來說，有沒有什麼特別針對 SO 的。F.TER。本季的獲利流為何會大幅壓低利潤率？或者說，我們應該期待未來出現類似的情況嗎？

Yes. Bob, this is Scott. So yes, I mean, SO. F.TER. is getting to the point where it's closer to being fully integrated, so you do see some depression on margin percentage for a while. Over time, we'll be able to bring those up, but that is primarily what was responsible for the little lower margin percentages in our Advanced Engineered Materials business in the first quarter.

是的。鮑勃，這是斯科特。是的，我的意思是，所以。F.TER。正接近完全整合的階段，因此你確實會看到利潤率在一段時間內下降。隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠提高這些水平，但這主要是導致第一季先進工程材料業務利潤率略低的原因。

Yes, Bob. We've -- I don't know if we missed it or didn't communicate it well enough, but we've talked about these businesses you're bringing in being at the very low double-digit kind of margin levels when they first come on. So contributions of maybe $0.10 for this quarter from SO. F.TER -- for this year from SO. F.TER. And much, much less than that in NILIT, it'd be like $0.10 next year. So you're looking at a multiyear process of getting these businesses up to margin levels that are more consistent and what we would expect in this arena.

是的，鮑伯。我們——我不知道我們是否錯過了或沒有充分傳達這一點，但我們已經討論過，您引入的這些業務在剛開始時的利潤率水平非常低，只有兩位數。因此本季 SO 的貢獻可能為 0.10 美元。F.TER——今年來自 SO。F.TER。而在 NILIT 中則要少得多，明年將會是 0.10 美元。因此，您需要經過多年的努力才能使這些業務的利潤率達到更穩定的水平，這也是我們在這個領域所期望的。

Our next question is from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

This is actually Mike Leithead sitting in for Duffy. I guess, Mark, obviously a strong start to the year, but a lot of moving pieces you've acknowledged kind of with raw material volatility, mixed signals on global demand. I guess, when you look broadly across your portfolio, do things today feel better than when the year started? Or maybe there are, I guess, some incremental headwinds you have to fight through?

這實際上是 Mike Leithead 代替 Duffy 上場。馬克，我想，今年的開局顯然很強勁，但您也承認有很多因素在變化，例如原材料的波動、全球需求的混合訊號。我想，當你全面審視你的投資組合時，今天的情況是否比年初好？或者我想，也許你必須克服一些逐漸增加的阻力？

No. I -- they feel better. I mean, the raw material movements have been sharper perhaps than we anticipated. Those are my words. If you look at it on a full year basis, well, on a full year basis, we're expecting as much as $200 million, maybe $250 million in inflation year-over-year, full year kind of look at that. So you're going to have movements and we've just had a little chunk of that so far in the first quarter. Certainly, less than $40 million of gross raw material inflation. So we're looking at a pretty volatile raw material environment, Mike, and that's okay. We don't mind volatility. We always like -- of course, we can't predict it, but a little volatility is not a bad thing. So as we go through this year, we're going to see some movement quarter-to-quarter in margins and maybe it's a little bit of reflection of that volatility. But no, we're pretty excited about how the year is stacking up.

不。我——他們感覺好多了。我的意思是，原料的波動可能比我們預期的還要劇烈。這是我的話。如果從全年來看，那麼，從全年來看，我們預計年比通貨膨脹將高達 2 億美元，甚至 2.5 億美元，全年來看是如此。所以你會有所動作，而我們在第一季到目前為止只做了一小部分動作。當然，原物料總通膨額不到 4,000 萬美元。因此，我們正在關註一個相當不穩定的原料環境，麥克，這沒關係。我們不介意波動。我們總是喜歡——當然，我們無法預測，但一點波動並不是一件壞事。因此，隨著今年的到來，我們將看到利潤率逐季度出現一些變化，也許這是這種波動性的一點反映。但不，我們對今年的進展感到非常興奮。

Great. And then just one more quickly on the volume growth in AEM. Can you help size for us the impact of SO. F.TER this quarter? I guess I'm just trying to get a better idea of how well the base business performed in the quarter for AEM.

偉大的。然後再快速談談 AEM 的銷售成長。您能幫助我們評估一下 SO 的影響嗎？本季 F.TER ？我想我只是想更好地了解 AEM 本季的基礎業務表現如何。

Yes, yes, sure. I mean, one thing here, Mike. I don't want to get too specific on continuing to break out SO. F.TER. because it is becoming integrated, but what I will say is that without SO. F.TER, the number of projects are still an all-time record. The growth in volume is still double-digit regardless of whether you look a year ago or the quarter before. So SO. F.TER. contributed right on plan, but still, the organic business is the big driver.

是的，是的，當然。我的意思是，這裡有一件事，麥克。我不想太具體地談論如何繼續突破 SO。F.TER。因為它正在變得一體化，但我想說的是，沒有它。F.TER，專案數量仍創歷史新高。無論是看去年同期還是前一個季度，銷量成長仍是兩位數。就這樣。F.TER。按計劃做出了貢獻，但有機業務仍然是主要推動力。

So half and half or less is what I would say for SO.F.TER., yes.

所以對於 SO.F.TER. 來說，我會說一半一半或更少，是的。

Yes. Well, yes, in terms of volume and projects, clearly the organic business is the big driver. In terms of profit contribution, SO. F.TER. probably contributed 30% of the profit growth.

是的。嗯，是的，就數量和項目而言，有機業務顯然是主要推動力。從利潤貢獻來看，SO。F.TER。大概貢獻了30%的獲利成長。

Our next question is from Frank Mitsch with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國證券公司的弗蘭克米奇 (Frank Mitsch)。

You mentioned some of the outages. Clear Lake, both, I guess, the acidic acid unit and the methanol unit are offline. And I saw that you guys are also running your Singapore facility at reduced rates here in Q2. Can you talk a little bit about what you're sizing the financial impact of these outages are?

您提到了一些中斷的情況。清水湖，我猜，酸性裝置和甲醇裝置都處於離線狀態。我發現你們在第二季也以較低的價格經營新加坡工廠。您能否稍微談談這些停電造成的財務影響？

No. We're not going to break it down that way. What we'll say is that it's a 6-week kind of outage. I think the gross expenditures will press $50 million. The entire complex is down. So not only the Celanese sites here, but also the other site partners. It's a -- by any measure, it's a very big outage and we're replacing a lot utility pipeline -- utility kind of systems in the process. So no, we haven't broken that down in there, Frank.

不。我們不會以那種方式來分解它。我們可以這麼說，這是一場持續六週的停電。我認為總支出將達到5000萬美元。整個建築群都倒塌了。因此，這裡不僅有塞拉尼斯的站點，還有其他站點合作夥伴。無論以何種標準衡量，這都是非常嚴重的停電，我們正在更換許多公用管道——公用系統。所以，不，我們還沒有把它分解開來，弗蘭克。

Well, so it's -- so 6 weeks and you're saying the capital cost about $50 million?

嗯，那麼是 —— 6 週的時間，您說資本成本約為 5000 萬美元？

In expense.

在費用上。

And at this point, with reduced production of VAM, I mean, I'm guessing that the market is going to be pretty damn tight when you come back in. Is that not how we should be thinking about AI once we get past these outages? Because you also had some major outages over in Asia, not you, per se, but the industry.

目前，由於 VAM 產量減少，我猜當你回來時市場會非常緊張。一旦我們擺脫了這些中斷，我們不應該這樣思考人工智慧嗎？因為你們在亞洲也遭遇了一些重大停電，這不是你們本身的問題，而是整個產業的問題。

You put 2 qualifiers on there, pretty and damn. So I think it's going to be pretty tight, I don't know if it's damn tight. But so yes, the market is tightening up a little bit. That's right.

你在那裡放了 2 個限定詞，漂亮又糟糕。所以我認為它會非常緊張，我不知道它是否真的非常緊張。但確實，市場確實有點收緊。這是正確的。

Frank, this is Pat. I mean, I think you see that expressed in the profile that we talked about, the cadence across the quarters, right. And that's exactly those dynamics you're talking about that are reflected there.

弗蘭克，這是帕特。我的意思是，我想你已經在我們討論的概況中看到了這一點，即各個季度的節奏，對吧。這正是您所談論的反映在那裡的動態。

Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

So China has been shutting down a lot of coal disk capacity in various chemicals, whether it's urea, caustic. How is it impacting the Acetyl Chain, given the backward integration into coal? And could that suggest sort of a turning point in acetyls in the future?

因此，中國已經關閉了大量的煤炭產能，用於生產各種化學品，包括尿素和燒鹼。考慮到煤炭的向後整合，它對乙醯鏈有何影響？這是否預示著乙醯基未來的一個轉折點？

Yes. I think, and Pat might add some clarity in here too, but when you look at it at a very high level, I think China is holding true to their perspective that coal gasification as it relates to our business is not going to be increased in China. It's going to wane. And so you're seeing evidence of that starting to occur. You're also seeing China push in support indirectly sort of higher coal pricing as well, if for nothing else, to fund the kind of investments they need to start cleaning up their technology around coal. So we're seeing that as setting a higher foundation, raw material cost foundation for China, which is a very good thing. The other thing we've talked about in the past is the addition of MTO in China and the impact that that's having on methanol. And when -- as Pat and Scott remind me all the time, as China gets the MTO really running, then they really are a net importer. Methanol is going to come from somewhere else. It's not going to come from China, nor is methanol likely to be built in China. So my personal view is that, that sorts -- versus, let's say, the last several years, that's going to reset us a couple of years going forward to a higher base level cost position for those materials in China, which, net-net, is good for the industry.

是的。我認為，帕特可能也會在這裡補充一些說明，但當你從非常高的層面來看時，我認為中國堅持他們的觀點，即與我們的業務相關的煤氣化在中國不會增加。它將逐漸消退。所以你會看到這種情況開始發生的證據。你也會看到中國也在間接支持提高煤炭價格，即使不為別的，也是為了資助他們開始清理煤炭技術所需的投資。因此，我們認為這為中國奠定了更高的基礎，原料成本基礎，這是一件非常好的事情。我們過去討論過的另一件事是中國增加 MTO 及其對甲醇的影響。正如帕特和斯科特一直提醒我的那樣，當中國真正啟動 MTO 時，他們就真的成為淨進口國了。甲醇將從其他地方來。它不會來自中國，甲醇也不太可能在中國生產。因此，我個人的觀點是，與過去幾年相比，這將使我們在未來幾年內重新調整中國材料的成本基準，使其處於更高的水平，這對整個行業來說是有利的。

And just secondly, on filter tow, your prices are down 8%, volumes down 2%. Do you believe that 2017 could be sort of a final year of destocking and that you could see at least volumes begin to improve in 2018? Or is that too optimistic?

其次，過濾絲束的價格下降了 8%，銷量下降了 2%。您是否認為 2017 年可能是去庫存的最後一年，並且至少在 2018 年您會看到庫存量開始回升？或者說這太樂觀了？

Yes, I think we've said 50/50 on the average at $0.40 between volume and price. So you're going see a little bit of movement around that as it settles as we go through this year. I don't know how to really answer your question. I think we do really believe that it's going to set the foundation and we hope that next year doesn't – (inaudible) to deteriorate next year. They shouldn't, but that's kind of where are. I don't know, Scott, if you have any...

是的，我認為我們說的是交易量和價格的平均比例為 50/50，即 0.40 美元。因此，隨著我們度過今年，您將看到圍繞這一問題的一些變化。我不知道該如何真正回答你的問題。我認為我們確實相信這將奠定基礎，我們希望明年的情況不會 - （聽不清楚）明年惡化。他們不應該這樣，但情況就是這樣。我不知道，斯科特，如果你有任何...

Yes. No. I think that that's right. I mean, 2017 is at or near our floor and we're working actions to help that.

是的。不。我認為那是對的。我的意思是，2017 年已經達到或接近我們的最低點，我們正在採取行動來幫助實現這一目標。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, in Q1, you beat expectations, but you did not raise full year guidance. You mentioned some challenges in raw materials. Was there anything else besides raw that held you back from perhaps raising guidance for the full year?

馬克，在第一季度，你們的表現超出了預期，但你們並沒有提高全年業績預期。您提到了原材料方面的一些挑戰。除了原料之外，還有其他因素阻礙您提高全年指導價嗎？

No. I just didn't want to roll it out there. But I think our year is back end-loaded. And if you look at that, there's a lot more loaded in the back end of the year and that means that, that just increases your risk. So I thought it was prudent not to roll it in. Let's see how we perform this quarter and our view from there and we'd be in a better position to call the full year then.

不。我只是不想把它推廣到那裡。但我認為我們今年的負擔已經很重了。如果你看一下，你會發現今年年底的負擔會更大，這意味著，這只會增加你的風險。所以我認為最好不要將其捲入其中。讓我們看看本季的表現以及我們對此的看法，然後我們就能更好地預測全年的表現。

Understood. And question for Scott. Scott, just on the auto exposure in AEM, given some weakness in that end market, can you discuss your exposure and how you might offset that end market weakness going forward?

明白了。並向斯科特提問。斯科特，僅就 AEM 的汽車風險敞口而言，考慮到終端市場的一些疲軟，您能否討論一下您的風險敞口以及您未來如何抵消終端市場的疲軟？

Yes. I mean, we're certainly less exposed to auto than we used to be. It's still a critical segment to us, maybe it's 1/3 or less of our exposure there. But again, our big driver is our model and our project pipeline system and we have a tremendous number of projects that are in the auto area that aren't necessarily dependent on overall auto volume growth.

是的。我的意思是，我們現在接觸汽車的次數肯定比以前少了。這對我們來說仍然是一個關鍵的部分，也許只占我們在那裡曝光率的 1/3 甚至更少。但同樣，我們的主要驅動力是我們的模式和項目管道系統，我們在汽車領域擁有大量項目，這些項目不一定依賴整體汽車銷售的成長。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas, JP Morgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Last year, you had a really strong quarter in Acetyl Intermediates where your volumes grew mid-single-digits. And this year, in the first quarter, they were down low double-digits. And methanol prices also really lifted year-over-year. And I think you transfer raw materials at cost from AI to AEM. So was some of the margin deterioration in AEM due to higher raw materials costs that were embedded in Acetyl Intermediates, both from the change in volume and from the change in methanol prices?

去年，你們的乙醯中間體季度表現非常強勁，銷量成長了中等個位數。而今年第一季度，他們的利潤率就下降了兩位數。甲醇價格也較去年同期大幅上漲。我認為您將原材料按成本從 AI 轉移到 AEM。那麼，AEM 利潤率的下降是否部分是由於乙醯中間體原材料成本的上升（包括產量變化和甲醇價格變化）造成的？

No. Our – I'll ask Chris to weigh in, but our transfer price is pretty darn close to market, Jeff. So we don't -- we work hard to try not to shift things around, I'll put it that way. I mean, there's a little that occurs probably, but...

不。我們的——我會請克里斯來權衡，但我們的轉讓價格非常接近市場價，傑夫。所以我們不會——我們會盡力嘗試不去改變事情，我會這樣說。我的意思是，可能會發生一些事情，但是...

Okay. And then, the -- you took a $27 million contract cancellation charge in ethanol. What exactly was that? And was that -- did that cash flow go out in the first quarter? Or will that go out in future quarters?

好的。然後，你承擔了 2700 萬美元的乙醇合約取消費用。那到底是什麼？那麼——第一季的現金流出來了嗎？或會在未來幾季內公佈？

So Jeff, this is Chris. The cash did not go out and a lot of these contracts in the Acetyl Chain on the supply side, well, I wouldn't say a lot, but there are a handful of very key supply streams where your vendor is really setting up shop there for you and making a huge investment. So if you think of the industrial gas company business model, that's what it is. So you're signing long-term contracts that allow them to recover their capital that they incurred for you -- or for us. So that number is essentially the present value of what we owe them over time. So it will be paid over time.

傑夫，這是克里斯。現金沒有流出，供應方乙醯基鏈中的許多合同，嗯，我不會說很多，但有少數非常關鍵的供應流，您的供應商實際上在那裡為您開設商店並進行巨額投資。所以，如果你想想工業氣體公司的商業模式，它就是這樣的。因此，您簽署的長期合約允許他們收回為您或我們產生的資本。所以這個數字本質上就是我們長期以來欠他們的錢的現值。因此，它會隨著時間推移而得到支付。

Our next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Just, Scott, you mentioned that you were working on some unlisted projects or some things to, I guess, help the consumer acetate tow business. And I guess, were you talking about maybe some production reductions of your own, number one? And as a follow-up, you guys think the stability can take place in tow in 2018 without any production coming out from yourselves or from other industry parties?

史考特，剛才你提到你正在從事一些未列出的項目或一些事情，我想，是為了幫助消費者醋酸纖維拖曳業務。我想，首先您是在談論您自己的一些減產措施嗎？另外，你們是否認為，在你們自己或其他行業各方不推出任何產品的情況下，2018 年能夠實現穩定？

Yes. I mean, Vincent, I mean, what I will say is we're always working on a number of things, but specifically there's a lot of productivity work going on in the tow business and that can involve assets. It can also involve co-producer arrangements, too.

是的。我的意思是，文森特，我想說的是，我們一直在做很多事情，但具體來說，拖車業務中有很多生產力工作正在進行，而且可能涉及資產。它還可以涉及聯合製作人的安排。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, in AEM, the JV income was a bit stronger than we expected. Was there anything specific to this quarter? And in terms of the balance of the year, I think you're lapping turnaround in Q2, but is there anything we should think about as we model the JV income for the balance of the year?

好的。作為後續行動，在 AEM，合資企業的收入比我們預期的要強一些。本季有什麼特別的事情嗎？就今年的餘額而言，我認為你們將在第二季度實現扭虧為盈，但在為今年的餘額模擬合資企業收入時，我們應該考慮什麼嗎？

Yes. I mean, I don't think there's anything to really highlight. It was a stronger quarter sequentially than before. It probably won't be quite that strong in the next couple of quarters coming up, but it's not far off.

是的。我的意思是，我認為沒有什麼值得特別強調的。本季業績比前一季更為強勁。在接下來的幾個季度裡，它可能不會那麼強勁，但也不會太遠。

Your next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

So you guys have pointed to about 8% to 11% growth in 2017 on EPS. If we take a similar look at '18, we get to about $8. In the past, you've talked to $8 to $8.50. So would you need additional M&A to get to the upper end of that range? Are you still looking at that as achievable? And maybe just talk about the pipeline a little bit.

所以你們指出 2017 年每股盈餘將成長約 8% 至 11%。如果我們以類似的方式看一下 18 年，我們會得到大約 8 美元。過去，您曾談到 8 美元到 8.50 美元。那麼您是否需要額外的併購才能達到該範圍的上限？您仍認為這是可以實現的嗎？也許只是稍微談論一下管道。

Yes. When we rolled out -- we rolled those numbers out, they were -- the $8 to $8.50 was without M&A, but at the same token, we did not anticipate the well over $100 million drop that we've seen in value coming out of the cellulosics business. So we need M&A to cover that. So we need M&A to contribute $0.50 to $0.60, I would say, to have a shot at that. So we probably are going to do a little bit more M&A to make sure that's there.

是的。當我們推出這些數字時，它們是 8 美元到 8.50 美元，不包括併購，但同樣，我們沒有預料到纖維素業務的價值會下降超過 1 億美元。所以我們需要併購來解決這個問題。因此，我想說，我們需要併購貢獻 0.50 美元到 0.60 美元，才能實現這一目標。因此，我們可能會進行更多的併購，以確保這一點。

And then maybe just as a follow-up, talk about your cash use plans and the pipeline a little bit. Are you still looking at splitting that between M&A and buybacks?

然後也許只是作為後續，稍微談談您的現金使用計劃和管道。您是否仍在考慮將其分為併購和回購？

So we have a authorization that would allow us to do about $500 million this year and that's currently our intention is to do $500 million of share repurchases in 2017. At that point, that authorization ends. So we'll be talking more soon about changing uses of cash and what that looks like. But if we're successful on executing continued bolt-on acquisitions, it will be difficult to sustain that kind of pace of share repurchases.

因此，我們獲得了一項授權，允許我們今年回購約 5 億美元，目前我們的目標是在 2017 年回購 5 億美元的股票。此時，授權結束。因此，我們很快就會進一步討論現金用途的改變及其具體內容。但如果我們成功執行持續的附加收購，將很難維持這種股票回購速度。

Next question is from James Sheehan with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 的 James Sheehan。

This is Matthew Stevenson on for Jim. Is the demand environment in China following the Chinese New Year sufficient to support the recent price movements, the favorable price developments in acetyls there? Or is it purely a result or only being supported by the tight supply due to outages there?

我是馬修·史蒂文森，代替吉姆。春節過後中國的需求環境是否足以支撐近期的價格趨勢以及乙醯價格的良好發展？或者這純粹是一個結果，或者僅僅受到停電導致的供應緊張的支持？

Matthew, it's Pat. I would love to tell you that the demand is driving a big change in margin performance in China, but the reality is it's an oversupplied market today. So we're really watching kind of short-term dynamics and our ability to make choices in our chain, in our plants to kind of benefit ourselves and influence as much as we can. We've been talking about the higher coal cost environment that really started in the second half of last year and continued into the first quarter, and that put many of our competition in a position where they want to drive price. And they've been doing that, we've been doing that. And that's benefited us ultimately on margin as well. I think the dynamics that we talk about in terms of outages is primarily a Western Hemisphere dynamic. And as we've said, we've seen that developing throughout the first quarter in a very positive way and we feel good about where we're headed in the second quarter.

馬修，我是帕特。我很想告訴你們，需求正在推動中國利潤表現發生巨大變化，但現實情況是，目前中國市場供應過剩。因此，我們實際上在關注短期動態以及我們在鏈條中、工廠中做出選擇的能力，以便盡可能地使我們自己受益並產生影響。我們一直在談論煤炭成本上漲的環境，這種環境實際上始於去年下半年並持續到第一季度，這使得我們的許多競爭對手處於想要提高價格的境地。他們一直在這樣做，我們也一直在做這件事。這最終也為我們的利潤帶來了好處。我認為，我們在停電方面談論的動態主要是西半球的動態。正如我們所說，我們看到第一季的情況發展非常積極，我們對第二季的前景充滿信心。

Understood. And in terms of the cadence of earnings throughout the year, when you reported your 4Q results, you were indicating, I think, it was $0.35 to $0.40 higher earnings in the second half of '17 compared to the first half of '17. Now that's been reduced. And at least compared to where numbers were, it seems like the difference came out of consumer. Can you maybe elaborate on that?

明白了。就全年獲利節奏而言，當您報告第四季度業績時，我認為您指出 2017 年下半年的利潤比上半年高出 0.35 美元至 0.40 美元。現在這個數字已經減少了。至少與數字相比，差異似乎來自消費者。能詳細說明一下嗎？

I'm sorry. I'm actually -- can you repeat the first part of your question? I'm sorry (inaudible).

對不起。我實際上——你能重複問題的第一部分嗎？對不起（聽不清楚）。

Sure. I believe the guidance now is for the second half of 2017 to see earnings per share of about $0.20 higher than the first half of '17, and that's less of a step up in the second half than we had previously been anticipating. And so I was wondering if you could elaborate on that. And just based on your performance versus consensus by segment, it seems like that came out of consumer, like out of the tow business. So I'm not sure if that's accurate to some extent or if you could elaborate on what is driving those dynamics?

當然。我認為目前的預期是 2017 年下半年每股收益將比上半年高出約 0.20 美元，而且下半年的增幅低於我們先前的預期。所以我想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下。僅根據您在各個細分市場中的表現與共識來看，這似乎是來自消費者，例如拖車業務。所以我不確定這在某種程度上是否準確，或者您可以詳細說明是什麼推動了這些動態？

Yes. I think you're being a bit too mathematical with this whole process. We started the year with a view that to make our numbers, what we knew had to happen is we needed to see raw material inflation, which is occurring and we needed to capitalize on that, which we are doing. And so -- and that was back end-loaded. So we're expecting this inflation to actually grow as we go through the year. We've had roughly $40 million of what will be, we think, well over $200 million for the year. So you can see, it's more heavily back end-loaded. So we were pushing as much as $0.40 of earnings in the back half of the year. So now we got 1 quarter under our belt, we actually -- we're just not, to be honest, I'm not taking credit for that. I think we need to get to the year a little bit more and see how that inflation occurs and just to validate we can extract the kind of value from it that we think we can. And then we'll talk about how to adjust at the end of next quarter for the year, but it's no more than that. It's just a high level haircut for the back half of the year.

是的。我認為你對整個過程的理解有點太數學化了。我們年初就認為，為了實現我們的目標，我們必須看到原物料價格上漲，而這種情況正在發生，我們需要利用這一點，而我們也正在這樣做。所以 — — 那是後端載入的。因此，我們預計通貨膨脹率實際上會隨著時間的推移而增長。我們已經獲得了大約 4,000 萬美元，我們認為今年的收益將遠遠超過 2 億美元。所以你可以看到，它的後端負載更重。因此，我們下半年的利潤達到了 0.40 美元。現在我們已經完成了一個季度的任務，實際上——說實話，我並不認為這是我的功勞。我認為我們需要再多觀察幾年，看看通貨膨脹是如何發生的，並驗證我們能否從中提取我們認為可以實現的價值。然後我們會討論下個季度末如何調整今年的情況，但僅此而已。這只是下半年的一次高級髮型而已。

The next question comes from Alex Yefremov with Instinet.

下一個問題來自 Instinet 的 Alex Yefremov。

Can you quantify any (inaudible) productivity initiatives that you achieved in the first quarter?

您能否量化第一季取得的任何（聽不清楚）生產力舉措？

Yes. We have $100 million in for the year and we were roughly on pace, that might be little bit higher than that in the first quarter. And that's pretty split between the groups.

是的。我們今年的收入為 1 億美元，大致按計劃進行，可能比第一季略高一些。各組之間的分歧相當大。

Got it. And then just turning back to acetyls, could you help us understand the total EBIT impact of the outages in the second quarter if we look sequentially versus the first quarter, including the missed opportunity and the actual cost that will not be capitalized?

知道了。然後回到乙醯基，如果我們按順序與第一季進行比較，您能否幫助我們了解第二季停產對總息稅前利潤的影響，包括錯失的機會和不會資本化的實際成本？

Yes, we don't really break it down that way. So I'm not trying to withhold that. I just don't have it in front of me, Alex, to break it down that way. I mean, we'll have...

是的，我們其實並沒有這樣分解。所以我並不想隱瞞這一點。亞歷克斯，我面前沒有這樣的東西來分解它。我的意思是，我們將有...

And we have some expense in the first quarter already. We're already -- we were spending money in the first quarter as we got into it. So you have the volume metrics as well as higher expense in the second quarter.

我們在第一季已經有一些支出。我們在第一季就已經在花錢了。因此，第二季的銷售指標和費用均有所增加。

But I guess, directionally, is it going to get worse in the second quarter or stay at about the same level?

但我猜，從方向上看，第二季情況會變得更糟還是會保持在同一水平？

Did you say AEM or acetyls?

您說的是 AEM 還是乙醯基？

Acetyls.

乙醯基。

Acetyls.

乙醯基。

Yes. It's going to stay at roughly the same level I would say going through the quarter, maybe a little better.

是的。我想說，本季的業績將保持大致相同的水平，甚至可能更好。

The next question comes from John Roberts with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Just to triangulate a little more on the AEM earnings growth, you mentioned double-digit organic growth in AEM. Were the earnings from the legacy wholly owned AEM operations also up double-digit?

為了進一步了解 AEM 的獲利成長情況，您提到了 AEM 的兩位數有機成長。來自傳統全資 AEM 業務的收益是否也實現了兩位數成長？

Yes. And so this is Scott. Look, the legacy earnings growth quarter-to-quarter is, if you take out the affiliates, right, which I'm -- we're going to the nature of your question, right, so it's not quite double-digit. But what we haven't talked about and I'll just put it out there now is that quarter-on-quarter, regardless of whether it's fourth quarter last year or first quarter last year, there's about a double-digit millions of dollars charge for inventory adjustment sitting in our first quarter of this year. And it just has to do with the fact that we ran down our inventory due to sales. So that's sitting there. So if you take that out, it's certainly double-digit earnings growth to support the double-digit volume growth.

是的。這就是斯科特。你看，如果你去掉附屬公司，那麼傳統盈利的季度環比增長是這樣的，對吧，這就是我——我們要回答你問題的本質，對吧，所以它不是兩位數。但我們還沒談到，我現在就說的是，與上一季相比，無論是去年第四季還是去年第一季度，我們今年第一季的庫存調整費用大約有數百萬美元。這與我們因銷售而減少庫存有關。就這樣坐在那裡。因此，如果去掉這一點，那麼肯定是兩位數的獲利成長支撐了兩位數的銷售成長。

Yes, last year, we were building inventory for a big turnaround. And this year, with the success of sales and what we're seeing in the marketplace, we're having to pull a lot of inventory. So it was a pretty good charge in there and that masked a little bit of what Scott's talking about.

是的，去年我們正在建立庫存，以備大轉變。今年，隨著銷售的成功以及我們在市場上看到的情況，我們不得不撤出大量庫存。因此，這是一個相當不錯的指控，並且掩蓋了斯科特所說的一些內容。

And then, Scott, you gave us these project count numbers in terms of new projects launched and backlog. Is there a way to qualify the quality of the backlog? I'm sure there's long-cycle projects, short-cycle projects. There's higher profitability and lower profitability. Is it just homogenous enough that we can use the broad project count as a good metric?

然後，史考特，您給了我們新啟動專案和積壓專案的專案數量。有沒有辦法鑑定積壓工作的品質？我確信有長週期項目和短週期項目。有獲利能力較高的，也有獲利能力較低的。它是否足夠同質，以至於我們可以使用廣泛的項目數量作為一個良好的指標？

Well, I think the growth in the projects that are closed are a good marker. I think our pipeline, we currently -- we're working on 4,000 or 5,000 projects right now, supports growing that closure rate year in and year out.

嗯，我認為已完成項目的成長是一個很好的標誌。我認為，我們目前正在進行的 4,000 或 5,000 個專案支持年復一年不斷增長的關閉率。

Okay. But you wouldn't expect much mix effect, the raw count will actually be a good metric?

好的。但是您不會期望有太大的混合效果，原始計數實際上是一個很好的指標？

Well, I think the number of closes of projects is a good metric to judge how the business is doing.

嗯，我認為專案完成的數量是判斷業務進度的一個很好的指標。

Next question comes from Bobby Geornas with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bobby Geornas。

Just a question on the raw material spike. Given the increase in raw materials in Q1 and subsequent price initiatives that you've gone after, to what extent do you see the potential for actual margin expansion in Q2 and as we progress through the year? Or are the increases that have been announced sort of merely intended to catch up with the increase in raws?

我只想問一下關於原物料價格飆升的問題。鑑於第一季原物料價格上漲以及隨後您採取的價格舉措，您認為第二季以及全年實際利潤率擴大的潛力有多大？或者，已經宣布的漲價只是為了跟上原料價格的上漲？

Yes. So that inflation of raw input started late in the fourth quarter and we talked about that during the first quarter earnings call or the fourth quarter earnings call a few months ago, and that really continued. We've actually been successful swimming upstream faster than those increases. So we've expanded margins, really, in every product line in acetyls, really with the exception of the China VAM comment that I made earlier. And we're only, frankly, just getting started in a lot of ways because the real tightness due to these outages in Western Hemisphere began to settle into the market late March and into April. So yes, we're expecting continued margin expansion into the second quarter and feel pretty good about that where we sit today.

是的。因此，原始投入的通貨膨脹始於第四季度末，幾個月前我們在第一季收益電話會議或第四季度收益電話會議上談到了這一點，而且這種情況確實持續了下去。事實上，我們已經成功地逆流而上，速度比這些成長的速度還快。因此，除了我之前提到的中國 VAM 評論之外，我們確實擴大了乙醯基每條產品線的利潤率。坦白說，從很多方面來說，我們才剛起步，因為西半球停電造成的真正緊張局面在 3 月底和 4 月才開始在市場上穩定下來。所以是的，我們預計第二季利潤率將繼續擴大，並對目前的情況感到非常滿意。

Okay. And just one clarification question. Earlier, you mentioned there is a $250 million sort of full year headwind from raw materials. Are you saying that about $40 million of that you would experience in Q1?

好的。只需澄清一個問題。之前您提到原料將為全年帶來 2.5 億美元的不利影響。您是說其中約 4000 萬美元將在第一季出現嗎？

Yes. Those are gross numbers. So I'm not giving you the net. Some of that is past due, some of that we have to really fight to cover. But yes, we had about $40 million. I think it was $38 million to $40 million of gross inflation in major raw materials and energy through the first quarter.

是的。這些是總數。所以我不會給你網路。有些事情已經過去了，有些事情我們必須努力解決。但是的，我們有大約 4000 萬美元。我認為第一季主要原料和能源的總通膨率為 3,800 萬至 4,000 萬美元。

Next question comes from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Mark, obviously a lot of sort of conversations around the spikes in raw material prices that we've seen. Obviously, it seems that methanol, at least if I take a look at the spot market and certain new sort of contract pricing that's coming out, there seem to be signaling some methanol pricing declines. Now similarly, on the ethylene side, there's a perception in the marketplace that as turnaround season is over and as more capacity comes online, ethylene pricing may come under pressure as well. So obviously, I mean, cutting through all of this, it seems that raws may continue to be volatile at least in the near term. So my question really is, as we see more of these ups and downs in product pricing, are you seeing buyer patterns change? Meaning, are you seeing people holding leaner levels of inventory or destocking or any of those elements?

馬克，顯然我們已經看到很多關於原物料價格飆升的討論。顯然，至少如果我看一下現貨市場和即將出台的某些新合約定價，似乎就表明甲醇價格有所下降。同樣，在乙烯方面，市場認為，隨著週轉季節的結束和更多產能上線，乙烯價格也可能面臨壓力。所以顯然，我的意思是，撇開所有這些不談，原料似乎至少在短期內可能會繼續波動。所以我的問題是，隨著我們看到產品價格的起伏，您是否看到購買者模式改變了？意思是，您是否看到人們持有更少的庫存或減少庫存或採取任何此類措施？

Yes. No, you see all those things every day. I mean, it's a -- everybody tries to guess what raws are going to do and take advantage of it any way they can. What we see with raws is that if you look at year-over-year, just on a year-over-year basis, I'm pretty confident we'll be several hundred million dollars higher when we end this year than last year. How that actually rolls out quarter-to-quarter, we had a spike up in methanol, we had a major outage of the world's largest MTO plant and they dumped...

是的。不，你每天都會看到這些事。我的意思是，每個人都試圖猜測 raws 會做什麼，並盡其所能地利用它。我們看到的情況是，如果與去年同期相比，我確信今年年底我們的收入將比去年高出數億美元。具體來說，每季的情況如何？我們的甲醇產量激增，世界上最大的 MTO 工廠發生大規模停產，他們傾銷了…

400.

400.

400 tons...

400噸…

KT (inaudible) yes.

KT（聽不清楚）是的。

KT in the market to press the market. You're kind of working through that today. So I think you're going to see that kind of volatile movement, but the broad trend is that we're seeing higher and higher inflation. And I think, broadly speaking, there's a limit to what you can do long term to deal with that. I mean, long term, it's got to be processed through the value chain. Short term, you may be -- you may hold back a decision to buy or you may build some inventory or do things like that.

KT 在市場上壓制市場。您今天正在努力解決這個問題。所以我認為你會看到這種波動，但總體趨勢是我們看到通膨越來越高。我認為，從廣義上講，長期解決這個問題的措施是有限的。我的意思是，從長遠來看，它必須透過價值鏈來處理。短期內，您可能會——您可能會推遲購買決定，或者您可能會建立一些庫存或做類似的事情。

Fair enough. Now, on a different topic, you guys talked about through the course of the pace of the year, if I heard this correctly, essentially taking the entire $500 million of share buyback authorization, sort of spending cash on that. So my question basically is that as I take a look at the 52 weeks sort of trading range of your shares, they've been in the low 60s, they've been in the low 90s, so -- and obviously, today, they're closer to the high end of it rather than the low end. So does that change the sort of thought process or calculus around buybacks? I mean, meaning, do you still feel that you would be able to sort of do the full $500 million? Or does that decelerate a bit?

很公平。現在，談談另一個話題，如果我沒聽錯的話，你們談到了在一年的時間裡，基本上拿走了全部 5 億美元的股票回購授權，也就是花掉了現金。所以我的問題基本上是，當我查看你們股票 52 週的交易區間時，它們一直在 60 多美元出頭，一直在 90 多美元出頭，所以——顯然，今天，它們更接近高端而不是低端。那麼，這是否會改變圍繞回購的思考過程或計算方式？我的意思是，您是否仍然覺得您能夠拿出全部 5 億美元？或者速度會稍微減慢一點嗎？

That doesn't change the calculus. I mean, we -- the earnings have been growing in the corporation. Without the equity value, it's been growing in the corporation. We expect to continue to grow earnings. We expect to be $8 to $8.50 at the end of next year. So you can -- if you want to do the math on that, you can forecast in what you think the share price is going to be next year, but we're expecting that -- we're expecting earnings to grow and we're expecting share price to grow. So we'll look at it from an intrinsic value and we think that the shares today are priced in a way that they're still quite attractive. So we are on pace to do that $500 million this year.

這不會改變微積分。我的意思是，我們——公司的收益一直在成長。沒有股權價值，它在公司中一直在成長。我們預計收益將持續成長。我們預計明年年底價格將達到 8 美元至 8.50 美元。所以你可以 - 如果你想對此進行計算，你可以預測明年的股價將會是多少，但我們預計 - 我們預計收益會增長，我們預計股價也會增長。因此，我們將從內在價值的角度來看待它，我們認為今天的股票定價仍然相當有吸引力。因此，我們今年的目標是實現 5 億美元。

The next question comes from David Wang, Morningstar.

下一個問題來自晨星的 David Wang。

I just wanted to follow-up a little bit more on the margins for AEM segment. I know we talked about this a little bit already, but I wanted to get some more clarity around if we saw any margin compression in that legacy business or was that mostly due to SO. F.TER.? I'm just trying to get a sense of that 3% kind of looks like year-on-year pricing decline. Do we see that in which segment of the AEM business?

我只是想進一步了解 AEM 部分的利潤情況。我知道我們已經討論過這個問題了，但我想更清楚地了解一下，我們是否看到該傳統業務的利潤率受到壓縮，或者這是否主要是由於 SO 造成的。F.TER.？我只是想知道 3% 看起來是不是像同比價格下降。我們在 AEM 業務的哪個部分看到了這一點？

Yes. So I mean -- this is Scott. Look, I mean, it's really 2 principal drivers. One is that SO. F.TER. is now integrated into our business, so that brought some lower margins in. And the other key driver of that is what I talked about before, right, it's this double-digit millions inventory charge in the first quarter that wasn't there in other quarters as well. So those 2 things principally dropped the margin down.

是的。所以我的意思是——這是斯科特。看，我的意思是，這實際上有兩個主要驅動因素。一是那樣。F.TER。現已融入我們的業務，因此利潤率有所下降。另一個關鍵驅動因素是我之前談到的，第一季的庫存費用高達數百萬美元，而其他季度也沒有出現這種情況。所以這兩件事基本上降低了利潤率。

Our last question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Mark, just going back to your comments on inflation, just to clarify the $200-plus million in gross inflation, in your 8% to 11% earnings guidance, are you assuming that you fully offset that gross inflation number for 2017?

馬克，回到你對通貨膨脹的評論，只是為了澄清 2 億多美元的總通貨膨脹，在你的 8% 到 11% 的盈利預測中，你是否假設你已經完全抵消了 2017 年的總通貨膨脹數字？

Yes.

是的。

Good. Okay, great. And then, also in terms of the...

好的。好的，太好了。然後，同樣就...而言

It's the only way I can answer that. But yes, hell yes, we expect to offset it. Yes.

這是我唯一能回答這個問題的方式。但是是的，當然是的，我們希望抵消它。是的。

That's what I wanted to hear. And then, just going back to the VAM pricing environment in China, can you just give us a sense as to the difference in production cost during the first quarter? And has there been any improvement into 2Q thus far?

這正是我想聽到的。然後，回到中國的 VAM 定價環境，您能否讓我們了解第一季生產成本的差異？到目前為止，第二季的情況有任何改善嗎？

Yes. So the dynamic in VAM in China really changed towards the end of the year, beginning of this year when essentially the relative competitiveness of the carbide VAM producers and the ethylene VAM producers switched and changed both our behavior as well as theirs. So it was towards the end of the quarter really just that light switch flipped on us. So as a result, I mean we really minimized rates early in the first quarter back to way the influence in the market with production in the market if needed and the carbide guys kind of fill that space. That dynamic still exists today. I mean ethylene remains very strong. It's pushing over $1,200 a ton again. So we'll need to monitor ethylene to kind of judge what we need to be doing inside China. That capacity is still competitive on an export basis to fill in some supply commitments that we've made so we do move it a little bit out of China to ensure we keep our customers supplied.

是的。因此，中國 VAM 的動態在年底和年初確實發生了變化，當時電石 VAM 生產商和乙烯 VAM 生產商的相對競爭力發生了轉變，並改變了我們的行為以及他們的行為。因此，直到本季末，我們才真正迎來了曙光。因此，我的意思是，我們在第一季初確實將利率降至最低，以便在需要時透過生產來影響市場，而碳化物公司則會填補這一空白。這種動態至今仍然存在。我的意思是乙烯仍然非常強。價格再次突破每噸 1,200 美元。因此，我們需要監測乙烯來判斷我們需要在中國採取什麼措施。這種產能在出口方面仍然具有競爭力，可以履行我們所做的一些供應承諾，因此我們確實將部分產能轉移出中國，以確保向客戶提供供應。

We will wrap up the call now. Thank you, everyone, for your questions and for listening in this morning. We will be around if you have any further questions. Anita, I'll turn the call over to you now.

我們現在結束通話。感謝大家的提問和今天早上的聆聽。如果您還有其他問題，我們將隨時為您服務。安妮塔，我現在把電話轉給你。

This conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

此次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。